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000
FXUS63 KDLH 191410
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
910 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD A MENTION OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM
SILVER BAY TO GRAND PORTAGE. CKC CONTINUES TO CARRY BR WITH VSBYS
IMPROVING. RAIN SHIELD HAS REACHED THE WESTERN FA AS OF 14Z. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ADDED AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG ELEVATED TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY.
LOW LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 10 MB DUE
TO TERRAIN LIFT OF LONG-FETCHED BDRY LYR FLOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT  339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS IS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE TWIN PORTS
NORTH INTO THE ARROWHEAD. ALOFT...A LARGE AREA OF MID  LVL CLOUD
COVER IS ADVECTING EAST ACROSS NE MN INTO NWRN WISC. A MIGRATORY
SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ALONG THE TOP OF THE MID LVL RIDGE OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED 60/65KT LLJ HAS TRANSLATED INTO NWRN ONTARIO
WHERE AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED. WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE
DEVELOPING WEST OF CWA AND WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO WRN CWA
BEFORE DAWN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO AN
EXTENSION OF THE 85H MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMUM STRETCHING SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 339 AM  CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TODAY...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG LLJ AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN CWA
THRU 18Z...AND THEN SHIFT ACROSS ARROWHEAD AND ERN CWA DURING THE
AFTN HRS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BASED ON FCST MLCAPE AND
MUCAPE FIELDS ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE SUFFICIENT TO
PROMOTE ORGANIZATION IF CELLS WERE TO DEVELOP. A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF CIN IS DEPICTED IN ELEVATED CAPE AREAS SO IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET MUCH DEVELOPMENT. MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL DEVELOPS
AFTER 00Z OVER WCTRL CWA.

TONIGHT..A NARROW WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OCCURS FROM CASS
LAKE TO TWIN PORTS 03Z-06Z AS MUCAPES OF NEAR 1500 J/KG ALIGN WITH
45KT 0/6KM SHEAR. AFTER 06Z...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS HYR LAKES VICINITY INTO PRICE
COUNTY. REGARDING THE OVERALL BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ...IT IS NOT VERY
ORGANIZED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS FORECAST WITHIN THE LOWEST 5K
FEET. OTHERWISE THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL SWING ACROSS CWA WITH
WIND SHIFT TO W AND NW AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASING. HIGHER POPS
REMAIN ALONG INTL BORDER THROUGH 06Z...CLOSER TO DEEPER CYCLONIC
CURVATURE UNDERNEATH AMPLIFYING MID LVL TROF.

SATURDAY..INTERESTING PATTERN AS INITIAL FORCING MOVES EAST OF
REGION WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP OVER MOST OF WRN/CTRL CWA. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL RAVE INTO THE REGION BY AFTN WITH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DUE TO BDRY LYR WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT. SREF CPTP INDICATES MDT PROB OF THUNDER OVER MOST OF
THE NE MN ZONES THROUGH 21Z...AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. A
NARROW AXIS OF LOW LVL THERMAL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB QUICKLY OVER SRN CWA TO LOW TO MID 70S SO
FCST TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT  339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A H50 TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL KEEP A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST...CENTERING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOCUS TURNS TO A SHORT WAVE THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND
INTO NW MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AS IT TRACKS OVER
THE NORTHLAND. ATTM...CARRYING BROAD BRUSH SCHC POPS WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE WAS WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. THE KBRD AND KHYR
AREAS HAD VFR CONDITIONS. THE NORTHLAND HAD SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL JET...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS...WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE FORECASTS INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTS LATER TONIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO DROP THE LLWS UNTIL
DAWN.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY BE OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND A TRANSITION
TOWARDS MVFR CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING SHOWERS...MAYBE STORMS...THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT...LET OUT ALONE
TIMING...OF STORMS IS LOW. THEREFORE LEFT OUT STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  58  68  52 /  60  50  60  30
INL  69  54  65  47 /  70  70  60  70
BRD  68  58  71  49 /  60  20  40  10
HYR  66  61  70  49 /  60  50  40  30
ASX  67  60  68  50 /  60  50  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
     141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MCLOVIN








000
FXUS63 KDLH 191410
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
910 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAIN CHANGE WAS TO ADD A MENTION OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE FROM
SILVER BAY TO GRAND PORTAGE. CKC CONTINUES TO CARRY BR WITH VSBYS
IMPROVING. RAIN SHIELD HAS REACHED THE WESTERN FA AS OF 14Z. MADE
SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE LATEST TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ADDED AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONG ELEVATED TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY.
LOW LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 10 MB DUE
TO TERRAIN LIFT OF LONG-FETCHED BDRY LYR FLOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT  339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS IS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE TWIN PORTS
NORTH INTO THE ARROWHEAD. ALOFT...A LARGE AREA OF MID  LVL CLOUD
COVER IS ADVECTING EAST ACROSS NE MN INTO NWRN WISC. A MIGRATORY
SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ALONG THE TOP OF THE MID LVL RIDGE OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED 60/65KT LLJ HAS TRANSLATED INTO NWRN ONTARIO
WHERE AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED. WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE
DEVELOPING WEST OF CWA AND WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO WRN CWA
BEFORE DAWN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO AN
EXTENSION OF THE 85H MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMUM STRETCHING SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 339 AM  CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TODAY...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG LLJ AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN CWA
THRU 18Z...AND THEN SHIFT ACROSS ARROWHEAD AND ERN CWA DURING THE
AFTN HRS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BASED ON FCST MLCAPE AND
MUCAPE FIELDS ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE SUFFICIENT TO
PROMOTE ORGANIZATION IF CELLS WERE TO DEVELOP. A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF CIN IS DEPICTED IN ELEVATED CAPE AREAS SO IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET MUCH DEVELOPMENT. MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL DEVELOPS
AFTER 00Z OVER WCTRL CWA.

TONIGHT..A NARROW WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OCCURS FROM CASS
LAKE TO TWIN PORTS 03Z-06Z AS MUCAPES OF NEAR 1500 J/KG ALIGN WITH
45KT 0/6KM SHEAR. AFTER 06Z...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS HYR LAKES VICINITY INTO PRICE
COUNTY. REGARDING THE OVERALL BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ...IT IS NOT VERY
ORGANIZED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS FORECAST WITHIN THE LOWEST 5K
FEET. OTHERWISE THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL SWING ACROSS CWA WITH
WIND SHIFT TO W AND NW AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASING. HIGHER POPS
REMAIN ALONG INTL BORDER THROUGH 06Z...CLOSER TO DEEPER CYCLONIC
CURVATURE UNDERNEATH AMPLIFYING MID LVL TROF.

SATURDAY..INTERESTING PATTERN AS INITIAL FORCING MOVES EAST OF
REGION WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP OVER MOST OF WRN/CTRL CWA. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL RAVE INTO THE REGION BY AFTN WITH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DUE TO BDRY LYR WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT. SREF CPTP INDICATES MDT PROB OF THUNDER OVER MOST OF
THE NE MN ZONES THROUGH 21Z...AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. A
NARROW AXIS OF LOW LVL THERMAL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB QUICKLY OVER SRN CWA TO LOW TO MID 70S SO
FCST TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT  339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A H50 TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL KEEP A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST...CENTERING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOCUS TURNS TO A SHORT WAVE THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND
INTO NW MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AS IT TRACKS OVER
THE NORTHLAND. ATTM...CARRYING BROAD BRUSH SCHC POPS WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE WAS WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. THE KBRD AND KHYR
AREAS HAD VFR CONDITIONS. THE NORTHLAND HAD SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL JET...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS...WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE FORECASTS INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTS LATER TONIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO DROP THE LLWS UNTIL
DAWN.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY BE OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND A TRANSITION
TOWARDS MVFR CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING SHOWERS...MAYBE STORMS...THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT...LET OUT ALONE
TIMING...OF STORMS IS LOW. THEREFORE LEFT OUT STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  58  68  52 /  60  50  60  30
INL  69  54  65  47 /  70  70  60  70
BRD  68  58  71  49 /  60  20  40  10
HYR  66  61  70  49 /  60  50  40  30
ASX  67  60  68  50 /  60  50  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
     141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MCLOVIN







000
FXUS63 KDLH 191152 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
652 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

ADDED AREAS OF FOG/DRIZZLE ALONGE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY.
LOW LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE DROPPED TO LESS THAN 10 MB DUE
TO TERRAIN LIFT OF LONG-FETCHED BDRY LYR FLOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT  339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS IS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE TWIN PORTS
NORTH INTO THE ARROWHEAD. ALOFT...A LARGE AREA OF MID  LVL CLOUD
COVER IS ADVECTING EAST ACROSS NE MN INTO NWRN WISC. A MIGRATORY
SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ALONG THE TOP OF THE MID LVL RIDGE OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED 60/65KT LLJ HAS TRANSLATED INTO NWRN ONTARIO
WHERE AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED. WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE
DEVELOPING WEST OF CWA AND WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO WRN CWA
BEFORE DAWN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO AN
EXTENSION OF THE 85H MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMUM STRETCHING SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 339 AM  CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TODAY...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG LLJ AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN CWA
THRU 18Z...AND THEN SHIFT ACROSS ARROWHEAD AND ERN CWA DURING THE
AFTN HRS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BASED ON FCST MLCAPE AND
MUCAPE FIELDS ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE SUFFICIENT TO
PROMOTE ORGANIZATION IF CELLS WERE TO DEVELOP. A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF CIN IS DEPICTED IN ELEVATED CAPE AREAS SO IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET MUCH DEVELOPMENT. MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL DEVELOPS
AFTER 00Z OVER WCTRL CWA.

TONIGHT..A NARROW WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OCCURS FROM CASS
LAKE TO TWIN PORTS 03Z-06Z AS MUCAPES OF NEAR 1500 J/KG ALIGN WITH
45KT 0/6KM SHEAR. AFTER 06Z...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS HYR LAKES VICINITY INTO PRICE
COUNTY. REGARDING THE OVERALL BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ...IT IS NOT VERY
ORGANIZED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS FORECAST WITHIN THE LOWEST 5K
FEET. OTHERWISE THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL SWING ACROSS CWA WITH
WINDSHIFT TO W AND NW AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASING. HIGHER POPS
REMAIN ALONG INTL BORDER THROUGH 06Z...CLOSER TO DEEPER CYCLONIC
CURVATURE UNDERNEATH AMPLIFYING MID LVL TROF.

SATURDAY..INTERESTING PATTERN AS INITIAL FORCING MOVES EAST OF
REGION WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP OVER MOST OF WRN/CTRL CWA. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL RAVE INTO THE REGION BY AFTN WITH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DUE TO BDRY LYR WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT. SREF CPTP INDICATES MDT PROB OF THUNDER OVER MOST OF
THE NE MN ZONES THROUGH 21Z...AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. A
NARROW AXIS OF LOW LVL THERMAL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB QUICKLY OVER SRN CWA TO LOW TO MID 70S SO
FCST TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT  339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A H50 TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL KEEP A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST...CENTERING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOCUS TURNS TO A SHORT WAVE THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND
INTO NW MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AS IT TRACKS OVER
THE NORTHLAND. ATTM...CARRYING BROADBRUSH SCHC POPS WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE WAS WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. THE KBRD AND KHYR
AREAS HAD VFR CONDITIONS. THE NORTHLAND HAD SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL JET...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS...WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE FORECASTS INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTS LATER TONIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO DROP THE LLWS UNTIL
DAWN.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY BE OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND A TRANSITION
TOWARDS MVFR CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING SHOWERS...MAYBE STORMS...THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT...LET OUT ALONE
TIMING...OF STORMS IS LOW. THEREFORE LEFT OUT STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  58  68  52 /  60  50  60  30
INL  68  54  65  47 /  70  70  60  70
BRD  71  58  71  49 /  50  20  40  10
HYR  68  61  70  49 /  60  50  40  30
ASX  67  60  68  50 /  60  50  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
     141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MCLOVIN







000
FXUS63 KDLH 191150
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT  339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS IS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE TWIN PORTS
NORTH INTO THE ARROWHEAD. ALOFT...A LARGE AREA OF MID  LVL CLOUD
COVER IS ADVECTING EAST ACROSS NE MN INTO NWRN WISC. A MIGRATORY
SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ALONG THE TOP OF THE MID LVL RIDGE OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED 60/65KT LLJ HAS TRANSLATED INTO NWRN ONTARIO
WHERE AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED. WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE
DEVELOPING WEST OF CWA AND WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO WRN CWA
BEFORE DAWN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO AN
EXTENSION OF THE 85H MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMUM STRETCHING SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 339 AM  CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TODAY...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG LLJ AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN CWA
THRU 18Z...AND THEN SHIFT ACROSS ARROWHEAD AND ERN CWA DURING THE
AFTN HRS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BASED ON FCST MLCAPE AND
MUCAPE FIELDS ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE SUFFICIENT TO
PROMOTE ORGANIZATION IF CELLS WERE TO DEVELOP. A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF CIN IS DEPICTED IN ELEVATED CAPE AREAS SO IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET MUCH DEVELOPMENT. MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL DEVELOPS
AFTER 00Z OVER WCTRL CWA.

TONIGHT..A NARROW WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OCCURS FROM CASS
LAKE TO TWIN PORTS 03Z-06Z AS MUCAPES OF NEAR 1500 J/KG ALIGN WITH
45KT 0/6KM SHEAR. AFTER 06Z...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS HYR LAKES VICINITY INTO PRICE
COUNTY. REGARDING THE OVERALL BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ...IT IS NOT VERY
ORGANIZED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS FORECAST WITHIN THE LOWEST 5K
FEET. OTHERWISE THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL SWING ACROSS CWA WITH
WINDSHIFT TO W AND NW AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASING. HIGHER POPS
REMAIN ALONG INTL BORDER THROUGH 06Z...CLOSER TO DEEPER CYCLONIC
CURVATURE UNDERNEATH AMPLIFYING MID LVL TROF.

SATURDAY..INTERESTING PATTERN AS INITIAL FORCING MOVES EAST OF
REGION WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP OVER MOST OF WRN/CTRL CWA. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL RAVE INTO THE REGION BY AFTN WITH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DUE TO BDRY LYR WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT. SREF CPTP INDICATES MDT PROB OF THUNDER OVER MOST OF
THE NE MN ZONES THROUGH 21Z...AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. A
NARROW AXIS OF LOW LVL THERMAL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB QUICKLY OVER SRN CWA TO LOW TO MID 70S SO
FCST TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT  339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A H50 TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL KEEP A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST...CENTERING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOCUS TURNS TO A SHORT WAVE THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND
INTO NW MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AS IT TRACKS OVER
THE NORTHLAND. ATTM...CARRYING BROADBRUSH SCHC POPS WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED IN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE MORNING. VFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THE
KBRD BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/STORMS IS
EXPECTED LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...BEFORE REDEVELOPING AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  58  68  52 /  60  50  60  30
INL  68  54  65  47 /  70  70  60  70
BRD  71  58  71  49 /  50  20  40  10
HYR  68  61  70  49 /  60  50  40  30
ASX  67  60  68  50 /  60  50  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
     141.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 191150
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT  339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS IS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE TWIN PORTS
NORTH INTO THE ARROWHEAD. ALOFT...A LARGE AREA OF MID  LVL CLOUD
COVER IS ADVECTING EAST ACROSS NE MN INTO NWRN WISC. A MIGRATORY
SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ALONG THE TOP OF THE MID LVL RIDGE OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED 60/65KT LLJ HAS TRANSLATED INTO NWRN ONTARIO
WHERE AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED. WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE
DEVELOPING WEST OF CWA AND WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO WRN CWA
BEFORE DAWN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO AN
EXTENSION OF THE 85H MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMUM STRETCHING SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 339 AM  CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TODAY...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG LLJ AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN CWA
THRU 18Z...AND THEN SHIFT ACROSS ARROWHEAD AND ERN CWA DURING THE
AFTN HRS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BASED ON FCST MLCAPE AND
MUCAPE FIELDS ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE SUFFICIENT TO
PROMOTE ORGANIZATION IF CELLS WERE TO DEVELOP. A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF CIN IS DEPICTED IN ELEVATED CAPE AREAS SO IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET MUCH DEVELOPMENT. MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL DEVELOPS
AFTER 00Z OVER WCTRL CWA.

TONIGHT..A NARROW WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OCCURS FROM CASS
LAKE TO TWIN PORTS 03Z-06Z AS MUCAPES OF NEAR 1500 J/KG ALIGN WITH
45KT 0/6KM SHEAR. AFTER 06Z...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS HYR LAKES VICINITY INTO PRICE
COUNTY. REGARDING THE OVERALL BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ...IT IS NOT VERY
ORGANIZED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS FORECAST WITHIN THE LOWEST 5K
FEET. OTHERWISE THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL SWING ACROSS CWA WITH
WINDSHIFT TO W AND NW AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASING. HIGHER POPS
REMAIN ALONG INTL BORDER THROUGH 06Z...CLOSER TO DEEPER CYCLONIC
CURVATURE UNDERNEATH AMPLIFYING MID LVL TROF.

SATURDAY..INTERESTING PATTERN AS INITIAL FORCING MOVES EAST OF
REGION WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP OVER MOST OF WRN/CTRL CWA. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL RAVE INTO THE REGION BY AFTN WITH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DUE TO BDRY LYR WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT. SREF CPTP INDICATES MDT PROB OF THUNDER OVER MOST OF
THE NE MN ZONES THROUGH 21Z...AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. A
NARROW AXIS OF LOW LVL THERMAL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB QUICKLY OVER SRN CWA TO LOW TO MID 70S SO
FCST TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT  339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A H50 TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL KEEP A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST...CENTERING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOCUS TURNS TO A SHORT WAVE THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND
INTO NW MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AS IT TRACKS OVER
THE NORTHLAND. ATTM...CARRYING BROADBRUSH SCHC POPS WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE SITUATED IN A MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TODAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
FREQUENT GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE MORNING. VFR CEILINGS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES THIS
MORNING...GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW CEILINGS WILL MOVE INTO THE
KBRD BY LATE MORNING...THEN SPREAD NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY. A BREAK IN THE SHOWERS/STORMS IS
EXPECTED LATE TODAY/THIS EVENING...BEFORE REDEVELOPING AS THE
COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  58  68  52 /  60  50  60  30
INL  68  54  65  47 /  70  70  60  70
BRD  71  58  71  49 /  50  20  40  10
HYR  68  61  70  49 /  60  50  40  30
ASX  67  60  68  50 /  60  50  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
     141.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 190841
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
341 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT  339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS IS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE TWIN PORTS
NORTH INTO THE ARROWHEAD. ALOFT...A LARGE AREA OF MID  LVL CLOUD
COVER IS ADVECTING EAST ACROSS NE MN INTO NWRN WISC. A MIGRATORY
SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ALONG THE TOP OF THE MID LVL RIDGE OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED 60/65KT LLJ HAS TRANSLATED INTO NWRN ONTARIO
WHERE AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED. WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE
DEVELOPING WEST OF CWA AND WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO WRN CWA
BEFORE DAWN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO AN
EXTENSION OF THE 85H MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMUM STRETCHING SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 339 AM  CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TODAY...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG LLJ AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN CWA
THRU 18Z...AND THEN SHIFT ACROSS ARROWHEAD AND ERN CWA DURING THE
AFTN HRS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BASED ON FCST MLCAPE AND
MUCAPE FIELDS ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE SUFFICIENT TO
PROMOTE ORGANIZATION IF CELLS WERE TO DEVELOP. A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF CIN IS DEPICTED IN ELEVATED CAPE AREAS SO IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET MUCH DEVELOPMENT. MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL DEVELOPS
AFTER 00Z OVER WCTRL CWA.

TONIGHT..A NARROW WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OCCURS FROM CASS
LAKE TO TWIN PORTS 03Z-06Z AS MUCAPES OF NEAR 1500 J/KG ALIGN WITH
45KT 0/6KM SHEAR. AFTER 06Z...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS HYR LAKES VICINITY INTO PRICE
COUNTY. REGARDING THE OVERALL BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ...IT IS NOT VERY
ORGANIZED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS FORECAST WITHIN THE LOWEST 5K
FEET. OTHERWISE THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL SWING ACROSS CWA WITH
WINDSHIFT TO W AND NW AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASING. HIGHER POPS
REMAIN ALONG INTL BORDER THROUGH 06Z...CLOSER TO DEEPER CYCLONIC
CURVATURE UNDERNEATH AMPLIFYING MID LVL TROF.

SATURDAY..INTERESTING PATTERN AS INITIAL FORCING MOVES EAST OF
REGION WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP OVER MOST OF WRN/CTRL CWA. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL RAVE INTO THE REGION BY AFTN WITH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DUE TO BDRY LYR WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT. SREF CPTP INDICATES MDT PROB OF THUNDER OVER MOST OF
THE NE MN ZONES THROUGH 21Z...AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. A
NARROW AXIS OF LOW LVL THERMAL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB QUICKLY OVER SRN CWA TO LOW TO MID 70S SO
FCST TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT  339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A H50 TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL KEEP A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST...CENTERING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOCUS TURNS TO A SHORT WAVE THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND
INTO NW MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AS IT TRACKS OVER
THE NORTHLAND. ATTM...CARRYING BROADBRUSH SCHC POPS WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE WAS WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. THE KBRD AND KHYR
AREAS HAD VFR CONDITIONS. THE NORTHLAND HAD SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL JET...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS...WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE FORECASTS INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTS LATER TONIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO DROP THE LLWS UNTIL
DAWN.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY BE OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND A TRANSITION
TOWARDS MVFR CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING SHOWERS...MAYBE STORMS...THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT...LET OUT ALONE
TIMING...OF STORMS IS LOW. THEREFORE LEFT OUT STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  58  68  52 /  60  50  60  30
INL  68  54  65  47 /  70  70  60  70
BRD  71  58  71  49 /  50  20  40  10
HYR  68  61  70  49 /  60  50  40  30
ASX  67  60  68  50 /  60  50  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MCLOVIN








000
FXUS63 KDLH 190841
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
341 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT  339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME CONTINUES OVER THE CWA EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXTENSIVE LOW STRATUS IS LOCATED FROM NEAR THE TWIN PORTS
NORTH INTO THE ARROWHEAD. ALOFT...A LARGE AREA OF MID  LVL CLOUD
COVER IS ADVECTING EAST ACROSS NE MN INTO NWRN WISC. A MIGRATORY
SHORTWAVE TROF IS MOVING ALONG THE TOP OF THE MID LVL RIDGE OVER THE
NRN PLAINS. ASSOCIATED 60/65KT LLJ HAS TRANSLATED INTO NWRN ONTARIO
WHERE AN AREA OF CONVECTION IS LOCATED. WEAK RADAR RETURNS ARE
DEVELOPING WEST OF CWA AND WILL BRING A FEW SHOWERS INTO WRN CWA
BEFORE DAWN. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS APPEARS TO BE LINKED TO AN
EXTENSION OF THE 85H MSTR TRANSPORT MAXIMUM STRETCHING SOUTH FROM
ONTARIO.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 339 AM  CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

TODAY...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE WILL DRAG LLJ AXIS EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT HIGHEST POPS WILL OCCUR OVER NWRN CWA
THRU 18Z...AND THEN SHIFT ACROSS ARROWHEAD AND ERN CWA DURING THE
AFTN HRS. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS LIMITED BASED ON FCST MLCAPE AND
MUCAPE FIELDS ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE SUFFICIENT TO
PROMOTE ORGANIZATION IF CELLS WERE TO DEVELOP. A SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNT OF CIN IS DEPICTED IN ELEVATED CAPE AREAS SO IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO GET MUCH DEVELOPMENT. MOST LIKELY POTENTIAL DEVELOPS
AFTER 00Z OVER WCTRL CWA.

TONIGHT..A NARROW WINDOW OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OCCURS FROM CASS
LAKE TO TWIN PORTS 03Z-06Z AS MUCAPES OF NEAR 1500 J/KG ALIGN WITH
45KT 0/6KM SHEAR. AFTER 06Z...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION TO MOVE QUICKLY SE ACROSS HYR LAKES VICINITY INTO PRICE
COUNTY. REGARDING THE OVERALL BDRY LYR CONVERGENCE ...IT IS NOT VERY
ORGANIZED AND UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW IS FORECAST WITHIN THE LOWEST 5K
FEET. OTHERWISE THE FRONTAL BDRY WILL SWING ACROSS CWA WITH
WINDSHIFT TO W AND NW AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER INCREASING. HIGHER POPS
REMAIN ALONG INTL BORDER THROUGH 06Z...CLOSER TO DEEPER CYCLONIC
CURVATURE UNDERNEATH AMPLIFYING MID LVL TROF.

SATURDAY..INTERESTING PATTERN AS INITIAL FORCING MOVES EAST OF
REGION WITH A BRIEF BREAK IN PRECIP OVER MOST OF WRN/CTRL CWA. A
STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL RAVE INTO THE REGION BY AFTN WITH INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN DUE TO BDRY LYR WARMING AND
COOLING ALOFT. SREF CPTP INDICATES MDT PROB OF THUNDER OVER MOST OF
THE NE MN ZONES THROUGH 21Z...AND FARTHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH 03Z. A
NARROW AXIS OF LOW LVL THERMAL RIDGING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROF
MAY ALLOW TEMPS TO CLIMB QUICKLY OVER SRN CWA TO LOW TO MID 70S SO
FCST TEMPS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED UPWARDS.



.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT  339 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

A VORT MAX ASSOCIATED WITH A H50 TROUGH AXIS WILL DROP OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
THE UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOLING ALOFT WILL KEEP A CHC FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND DURING
THIS TIME. A BROAD AREA OF UPPER LVL RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE
CENTRAL CONUS MONDAY...GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST...CENTERING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY...THROUGH MID-WEEK. THE RIDGE
AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH WILL KEEP THE FCST DRY WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

FOCUS TURNS TO A SHORT WAVE THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND
INTO NW MINNESOTA TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THERE REMAINS MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVE AS IT TRACKS OVER
THE NORTHLAND. ATTM...CARRYING BROADBRUSH SCHC POPS WED NIGHT AND
THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE WAS WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. THE KBRD AND KHYR
AREAS HAD VFR CONDITIONS. THE NORTHLAND HAD SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL JET...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS...WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE FORECASTS INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTS LATER TONIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO DROP THE LLWS UNTIL
DAWN.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY BE OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND A TRANSITION
TOWARDS MVFR CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING SHOWERS...MAYBE STORMS...THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT...LET OUT ALONE
TIMING...OF STORMS IS LOW. THEREFORE LEFT OUT STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  58  68  52 /  60  50  60  30
INL  68  54  65  47 /  70  70  60  70
BRD  71  58  71  49 /  50  20  40  10
HYR  68  61  70  49 /  60  50  40  30
ASX  67  60  68  50 /  60  50  30  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MCLOVIN







000
FXUS63 KDLH 190525
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1225 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE WAS WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. THE KBRD AND KHYR
AREAS HAD VFR CONDITIONS. THE NORTHLAND HAD SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL JET...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS...WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE FORECASTS INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTS LATER TONIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO DROP THE LLWS UNTIL
DAWN.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY BE OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND A TRANSITION
TOWARDS MVFR CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING SHOWERS...MAYBE STORMS...THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT...LET OUT ALONE
TIMING...OF STORMS IS LOW. THEREFORE LEFT OUT STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  68  49  63 /  30  50  10  20
INL  54  65  47  61 /  60  60  70  10
BRD  58  71  49  67 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  61  71  49  64 /  30  40  10  20
ASX  60  69  50  60 /  30  50  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MCLOVIN









000
FXUS63 KDLH 190525
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1225 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THERE WAS WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CIGS OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA...INCLUDING THE KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. THE KBRD AND KHYR
AREAS HAD VFR CONDITIONS. THE NORTHLAND HAD SE WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY
MORNING. A STRONG SSW LOW LEVEL JET...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS...WILL
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. THE FORECASTS INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTS LATER TONIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO DROP THE LLWS UNTIL
DAWN.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY BE OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND A TRANSITION
TOWARDS MVFR CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING SHOWERS...MAYBE STORMS...THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT...LET OUT ALONE
TIMING...OF STORMS IS LOW. THEREFORE LEFT OUT STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  68  49  63 /  30  50  10  20
INL  54  65  47  61 /  60  60  70  10
BRD  58  71  49  67 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  61  71  49  64 /  30  40  10  20
ASX  60  69  50  60 /  30  50  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MCLOVIN








000
FXUS63 KDLH 182353 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WHILE MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WAS A LARGE AREA OF OVC
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER SOME AREAS
INLAND...INCLUDING THE KDLH AND KHIB AREAS. THE REGION HAD ESE TO
SE WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THE IFR/MVFR CIGS AFFECTING KDLH/KHIB WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AND/OR
MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS LATER THIS EVENING...SO A RETURN TO VFR IS
LIKELY.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
SSW LOW LEVEL JET...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS...WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
THE FORECASTS INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
SOME GUSTS LATER TONIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO DROP LLWS UNTIL DAWN.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY BE OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND A TRANSITION
TOWARDS MVFR CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING SHOWERS...MAYBE STORMS...THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT...LET OUT ALONE
TIMING...OF STORMS IS LOW. THEREFORE LEFT OUT STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  64  59  68 /  20  70  30  50
INL  54  69  54  65 /  60  60  60  60
BRD  56  71  58  71 /  20  50  10  40
HYR  54  68  61  71 /  10  60  30  40
ASX  49  67  60  69 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 182353 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WHILE MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WAS A LARGE AREA OF OVC
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER SOME AREAS
INLAND...INCLUDING THE KDLH AND KHIB AREAS. THE REGION HAD ESE TO
SE WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THE IFR/MVFR CIGS AFFECTING KDLH/KHIB WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AND/OR
MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS LATER THIS EVENING...SO A RETURN TO VFR IS
LIKELY.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
SSW LOW LEVEL JET...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS...WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
THE FORECASTS INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
SOME GUSTS LATER TONIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO DROP LLWS UNTIL DAWN.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY BE OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND A TRANSITION
TOWARDS MVFR CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING SHOWERS...MAYBE STORMS...THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT...LET OUT ALONE
TIMING...OF STORMS IS LOW. THEREFORE LEFT OUT STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  64  59  68 /  20  70  30  50
INL  54  69  54  65 /  60  60  60  60
BRD  56  71  58  71 /  20  50  10  40
HYR  54  68  61  71 /  10  60  30  40
ASX  49  67  60  69 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 182351 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
651 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT  CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WHILE MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WAS A LARGE AREA OF OVC
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER SOME AREAS
INLAND...INCLUDING THE KDLH AND KHIB AREAS. THE REGION HAD ESE TO
SE WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THE IFR/MVFR CIGS AFFECTING KDLH/KHIB WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AND/OR
MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS LATER THIS EVENING...SO A RETURN TO VFR IS
LIKELY.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
SSW LOW LEVEL JET...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS...WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
THE FORECASTS INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
SOME GUSTS LATER TONIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO DROP LLWS UNTIL DAWN.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY BE OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND A TRANSITION
TOWARDS MVFR CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING SHOWERS...MAYBE STORMS...THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT...LET OUT ALONE
TIMING...OF STORMS IS LOW. THEREFORE LEFT OUT STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  64  59  68 /  20  70  30  50
INL  54  69  54  65 /  60  60  60  60
BRD  56  71  58  71 /  20  50  10  40
HYR  54  68  61  71 /  10  60  30  40
ASX  49  67  60  69 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 182351 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
651 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT  CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WHILE MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS EVENING...THERE WAS A LARGE AREA OF OVC
IFR/MVFR CIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND OVER SOME AREAS
INLAND...INCLUDING THE KDLH AND KHIB AREAS. THE REGION HAD ESE TO
SE WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

THE IFR/MVFR CIGS AFFECTING KDLH/KHIB WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE AND/OR
MOVE OUT OF THOSE AREAS LATER THIS EVENING...SO A RETURN TO VFR IS
LIKELY.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. A STRONG
SSW LOW LEVEL JET...ABOUT 40 TO 50 KNOTS...WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.
THE FORECASTS INCLUDE LLWS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WHILE THERE MAY BE
SOME GUSTS LATER TONIGHT...DO NOT BELIEVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL
BE SUFFICIENTLY MIXED TO DROP LLWS UNTIL DAWN.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AS THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT WITH DAYTIME HEATING. THE STRONGEST WINDS
MAY BE OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR WHICH COULD SEE GUSTS
APPROACH 30 KNOTS. THERE WILL BE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
SATURATION...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN LOW CIGS AND A TRANSITION
TOWARDS MVFR CIGS. AN APPROACHING FRONT IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WILL BRING SHOWERS...MAYBE STORMS...THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TOMORROW. CONFIDENCE ON THE DEVELOPMENT...LET OUT ALONE
TIMING...OF STORMS IS LOW. THEREFORE LEFT OUT STORMS IN THE
FORECAST FOR NOW. THE WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  64  59  68 /  20  70  30  50
INL  54  69  54  65 /  60  60  60  60
BRD  56  71  58  71 /  20  50  10  40
HYR  54  68  61  71 /  10  60  30  40
ASX  49  67  60  69 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 182018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
318 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WERE THINNING AND BREAKING UP AS OF 18Z. MOST TERMINALS
WILL START WITH MVFR BUT IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z. MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF LLWS BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A SW LLJ CLIPS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY 08Z MIXING OUT OF THE INVERSION ALLOWS THE
SFC WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY. HAVE VCSH AT INL BY 04Z BEFORE
PREDOMINATE -RA EXPECTED. INTRODUCED VCSH AT HIB/DLH/BRD AT 15Z.
KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN AT HYR THROUGH THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  64  59  68 /  20  70  30  50
INL  54  69  54  65 /  60  60  60  60
BRD  56  71  58  71 /  20  50  10  40
HYR  54  68  61  71 /  10  60  30  40
ASX  49  67  60  69 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 182018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
318 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH CLOUDY SKIES COVERING
THE TWIN PORTS...ARROWHEAD...AND NW WI. THE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING AFTER MIDNIGHT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
SYSTEM. SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LLJ WILL INCREASE THE MOISTURE INTO
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS ACROSS THE BORDERLAND OVERNIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA.

ON FRIDAY...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER SW
INTO WESTERN MN. RAIN WILL SPREAD WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE MORNING. THERE IS SOME CAPE (500-700) WITH THE PRECIP
SO WILL HAVE A CHC TSTMS WITH THE RAIN. AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP...IT WILL PROBABLY BE IN
THE SOUTHERN CWA COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. ON SATURDAY...A SHARPENING
UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO MN. SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA. SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS
SATURDAY NIGHT...EMBEDDED PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL AFFECT
THE FA WITH SOME SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE
FA. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
LAST PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY AFFECTS THE AREA AROUND WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR SUNDAY AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS. THE HIGH PREVAILS OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH IS MOVING OFF TO THE E AND A
RETURN FLOW SETS UP. WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING A
FEW SHOWERS TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA. HAVE SMALL POPS IN
PLACE. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WERE THINNING AND BREAKING UP AS OF 18Z. MOST TERMINALS
WILL START WITH MVFR BUT IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z. MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF LLWS BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A SW LLJ CLIPS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY 08Z MIXING OUT OF THE INVERSION ALLOWS THE
SFC WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY. HAVE VCSH AT INL BY 04Z BEFORE
PREDOMINATE -RA EXPECTED. INTRODUCED VCSH AT HIB/DLH/BRD AT 15Z.
KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN AT HYR THROUGH THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  64  59  68 /  20  70  30  50
INL  54  69  54  65 /  60  60  60  60
BRD  56  71  58  71 /  20  50  10  40
HYR  54  68  61  71 /  10  60  30  40
ASX  49  67  60  69 /  10  60  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 181732
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MADE SMALL UPDATES TO TEMPS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND A
FEW MORE BREAKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CANCELLED FROST ADVISORY NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STEADY OR RISE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SE WIND. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLEARING JUST EAST OF A GRAND MARAIS
TO GRAND PORTAGE LINE...MOVING WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES SO WILL LEAVE
THAT FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW. ZFP/NPW ALREADY RESENT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WERE THINNING AND BREAKING UP AS OF 18Z. MOST TERMINALS
WILL START WITH MVFR BUT IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z. MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF LLWS BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A SW LLJ CLIPS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY 08Z MIXING OUT OF THE INVERSION ALLOWS THE
SFC WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY. HAVE VCSH AT INL BY 04Z BEFORE
PREDOMINATE -RA EXPECTED. INTRODUCED VCSH AT HIB/DLH/BRD AT 15Z.
KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN AT HYR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  60  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  64  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  60  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  55  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 181732
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MADE SMALL UPDATES TO TEMPS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND A
FEW MORE BREAKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CANCELLED FROST ADVISORY NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STEADY OR RISE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SE WIND. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLEARING JUST EAST OF A GRAND MARAIS
TO GRAND PORTAGE LINE...MOVING WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES SO WILL LEAVE
THAT FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW. ZFP/NPW ALREADY RESENT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

LOW CLOUDS WERE THINNING AND BREAKING UP AS OF 18Z. MOST TERMINALS
WILL START WITH MVFR BUT IMPROVE TO VFR BY 21Z. MAINTAINED THE
MENTION OF LLWS BEGINNING BETWEEN 03Z AND 04Z AS A SW LLJ CLIPS
THE AREA. HOWEVER...BY 08Z MIXING OUT OF THE INVERSION ALLOWS THE
SFC WINDS TO BECOME GUSTY. HAVE VCSH AT INL BY 04Z BEFORE
PREDOMINATE -RA EXPECTED. INTRODUCED VCSH AT HIB/DLH/BRD AT 15Z.
KEPT OUT THE MENTION OF RAIN AT HYR THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  60  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  64  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  60  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  55  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 181525
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1025 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MADE SMALL UPDATES TO TEMPS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND A
FEW MORE BREAKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CANCELLED FROST ADVISORY NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STEADY OR RISE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SE WIND. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLEARING JUST EAST OF A GRAND MARAIS
TO GRAND PORTAGE LINE...MOVING WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES SO WILL LEAVE
THAT FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW. ZFP/NPW ALREADY RESENT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS TO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL AGAIN
LOWER TO WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AT 35-40 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  60  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  64  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  60  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  55  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 181525
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1025 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1025 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MADE SMALL UPDATES TO TEMPS AND INCREASED CLOUD COVER INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS SATELLITE INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
FORECAST REGION. IT SHOULD STAY MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND A
FEW MORE BREAKS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CANCELLED FROST ADVISORY NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STEADY OR RISE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SE WIND. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLEARING JUST EAST OF A GRAND MARAIS
TO GRAND PORTAGE LINE...MOVING WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES SO WILL LEAVE
THAT FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW. ZFP/NPW ALREADY RESENT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS TO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL AGAIN
LOWER TO WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AT 35-40 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  60  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  64  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  60  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  55  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 181156
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CANCELLED FROST ADVISORY NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STEADY OR RISE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SE WIND. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLEARING JUST EAST OF A GRAND MARAIS
TO GRAND PORTAGE LINE...MOVING WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES SO WILL LEAVE
THAT FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW. ZFP/NPW ALREADY RESENT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS TO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL AGAIN
LOWER TO WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AT 35-40 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  62  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  67  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  62  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  58  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ012-021.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ142>145.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 181156
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CANCELLED FROST ADVISORY NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STEADY OR RISE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SE WIND. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLEARING JUST EAST OF A GRAND MARAIS
TO GRAND PORTAGE LINE...MOVING WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES SO WILL LEAVE
THAT FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW. ZFP/NPW ALREADY RESENT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CIGS TO THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
BECOME SCATTERED THROUGH THE MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. HOWEVER...CEILINGS WILL AGAIN
LOWER TO WIDESPREAD MVFR THIS EVENING AS WINDS TURN OUT OF THE
SOUTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. HAVE INCLUDED LLWS AT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AS 2 KFT WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
AT 35-40 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  62  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  67  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  62  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  58  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ012-021.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ142>145.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 180955 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
455 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 452 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

CANCELLED FROST ADVISORY NRN ST LOUIS COUNTY AS TEMPS CONTINUE TO
REMAIN STEADY OR RISE DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SE WIND. THERE IS AN AREA OF CLEARING JUST EAST OF A GRAND MARAIS
TO GRAND PORTAGE LINE...MOVING WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL ONCE AGAIN OVER PARTS OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES SO WILL LEAVE
THAT FROST ADVISORY FOR NOW. ZFP/NPW ALREADY RESENT.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CIGS TO THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  62  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  67  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  62  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  58  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ012-021.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ142>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 180904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CIGS TO THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  62  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  67  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  62  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  58  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ011-012-021.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ142>145.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING









000
FXUS63 KDLH 180904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SFC/MID LVL RIDGING ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH A LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS TRAPPED UNDERNEATH. DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
AND SOME MIXING STILL OCCURRING IN BDRY LYR THE PREVIOUS FCST OF
FREEZE AND FROST IN PARTS OF THE CWA HAS BEEN GREATLY
REDUCED/ELIMINATED. HAVE DROPPED FROST ADV FOR WIS ZONES AND
CHANGED FRZ WARNING TO FROST ADV IN ARROWHEAD. MOST SITES IN
HEADLINE AREA IN NE MN HAVE BEEN WARMING SINCE MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TOMORROW)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TODAY...A TRANSITION DAY AHEAD AS SFC HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER EAST
INTO QUEBEC AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS. MAIN CHALLENGE WILL
BE FORECASTING EVOLUTION OF SKY CONDITIONS. USING A BLEND OF
NARRE-TL/HRRR CEILING OUTPUT AND 4KM SPC WRF TOTAL COLUMN
CONDENSATE PRODUCTS SUGGESTS THAT EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRATUS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND/OR ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. LAST AREA TO
SCATTER MAY BE ALONG NSHORE LATER TODAY. A COOL DAY NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR WITH MOST HI-RES NWP SHOWING MID 50S FOR MAX TEMPS.

TONIGHT...A FRONTAL BDRY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF
WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE NRN PLAINS BY EARLY MORNING. AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE A STRENGTHENING LLJ WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE
MAX MSTR TRANSPORT SHIFTING NORTH OF THE REGION INTO ONTARIO.
DEEP LAYER WARM ADVECTION APPEARS TO LIMIT SIG CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT IN THE CWA..EXCEPT NWRN PART OF KOOCH COUNTY. ELEVATED
CAPE MAY REACH ABOUT 500 J/KG AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTS TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED STRONG STORM. MDL XSECTS AND FCST
COND PRESS DEFICITS SHOW A RAPID EXPANSION OF LOW STRATUS
OVERNIGHT. SREF PROB SFC VIS PRODUCTS INDICATE A THREAT OF SOME
BR/FG DEVELOPMENT OVER ERN CWA HOWEVER HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

TOMORROW...SFC FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NRN ONTARIO BUT LAG
WEST AS IT STRETCHES SOUTH INTO CONUS. A WARM ADVECTION PATTERN
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH HIGHER POPS TIED INTO EXITING
LLJ/MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS. THIS PLACES HIGHEST POPS OVER NRN MN
ZONES IN THE MORNING AND ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES IN AFTN.
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL SHOWS LARGE DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT LIMITED
INSTABILITY...EITHER ELEVATED OR SFC BOUND. BEST CO LOCATION OF
INSTABILITY/SHEAR WOULD FAVOR SWRN CWA...IF ANYWHERE AT ALL...FOR
SOME CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.



.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT DIVES ACROSS SRN
CANADA AND SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS...AND A
POSSIBLE ISOLD TSTORM...THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATTM...THE H85 TROUGH
AXIS/COLD FRONT IS FCST TO DROP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
DAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A TRANSITION TO NW WINDS AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AS WELL AS A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO THE STEEP LAPSES ASSOCIATED WITH THE COOL
MID LEVEL TEMPS. BY MONDAY...MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
DAKOTAS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY. A RETURN
FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CIGS TO THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  49  64  57 /   0  20  70  40
INL  62  54  69  55 /   0  60  60  50
BRD  67  56  71  59 /   0  20  50  40
HYR  62  54  68  62 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  58  49  67  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ011-012-021.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ142>145.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 180606
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
106 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 19Z...STRATUS WAS FLOWING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN NE
FLOW FROM ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA. THE COLD FRONT THAT
HAD BEEN SITTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY...IS FINALLY WORKING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA WITH SOME CU. IN BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...TEMPS REACHED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. UNDER THE STRATUS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOVERING FROM THE 40S TO
THE 50S. EXPECT THE CU TO DISSIPATE/MOVE S OF THE AREA BY SUNSET.
THE STRATUS HOWEVER APPEARS AS IF IT WILL HANG ON IN PATCHES THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON FROST DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH
FROST FORMATION TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. WITH A
SE FLOW...THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM RISING AS THEY TYPICALLY
WOULD IN SW FLOW. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKE TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND. UPPER 50S TO THE 60S
WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WHICH LOOKS POTENTIALLY
WET AND STORMY. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING 850 HPA SSW TO SW FLOW OF ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL SURGE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE SURGE IN HEAT AND MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ONE OR MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SUGGEST SOME AREAS COULD GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...MAYBE
MORE THAN A HALF INCH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AND POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE COOL NW FLOW COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROMOTE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CIGS TO THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  49  64  56 /   0  20  70  40
INL  62  55  70  54 /   0  60  60  40
BRD  65  58  71  59 /   0  20  50  30
HYR  60  53  69  63 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  58  49  68  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010-011-019-
     020.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ012-021.

WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ002>004-008-
     009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ121-142>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 180606
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
106 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 19Z...STRATUS WAS FLOWING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN NE
FLOW FROM ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA. THE COLD FRONT THAT
HAD BEEN SITTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY...IS FINALLY WORKING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA WITH SOME CU. IN BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...TEMPS REACHED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. UNDER THE STRATUS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOVERING FROM THE 40S TO
THE 50S. EXPECT THE CU TO DISSIPATE/MOVE S OF THE AREA BY SUNSET.
THE STRATUS HOWEVER APPEARS AS IF IT WILL HANG ON IN PATCHES THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON FROST DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH
FROST FORMATION TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. WITH A
SE FLOW...THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM RISING AS THEY TYPICALLY
WOULD IN SW FLOW. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKE TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND. UPPER 50S TO THE 60S
WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WHICH LOOKS POTENTIALLY
WET AND STORMY. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING 850 HPA SSW TO SW FLOW OF ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL SURGE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE SURGE IN HEAT AND MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ONE OR MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SUGGEST SOME AREAS COULD GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...MAYBE
MORE THAN A HALF INCH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AND POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE COOL NW FLOW COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROMOTE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 100 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

A COOL AND MOIST EASTERLY FLOW HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR
CIGS TO THE FORECAST AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FAIRLY
QUICKLY ON THURSDAY...WITH VFR FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE
MORNING AS DRIER AIR BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  49  64  56 /   0  20  70  40
INL  62  55  70  54 /   0  60  60  40
BRD  65  58  71  59 /   0  20  50  30
HYR  60  53  69  63 /   0  10  60  60
ASX  58  49  68  59 /   0  10  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010-011-019-
     020.

     FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ012-021.

WI...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ002>004-008-
     009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     LSZ121-142>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 172330
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 19Z...STRATUS WAS FLOWING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN NE
FLOW FROM ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA. THE COLD FRONT THAT
HAD BEEN SITTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY...IS FINALLY WORKING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA WITH SOME CU. IN BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...TEMPS REACHED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. UNDER THE STRATUS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOVERING FROM THE 40S TO
THE 50S. EXPECT THE CU TO DISSIPATE/MOVE S OF THE AREA BY SUNSET.
THE STRATUS HOWEVER APPEARS AS IF IT WILL HANG ON IN PATCHES THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON FROST DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH
FROST FORMATION TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. WITH A
SE FLOW...THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM RISING AS THEY TYPICALLY
WOULD IN SW FLOW. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKE TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND. UPPER 50S TO THE 60S
WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WHICH LOOKS POTENTIALLY
WET AND STORMY. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING 850 HPA SSW TO SW FLOW OF ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL SURGE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE SURGE IN HEAT AND MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ONE OR MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SUGGEST SOME AREAS COULD GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...MAYBE
MORE THAN A HALF INCH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AND POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE COOL NW FLOW COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROMOTE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WIDE VARIETY OF CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION WAS NOW USHERING IN SOME LOWER CIGS. SOME
IFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY...BUT WE WILL
LIKELY STILL SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  55  49  64 /   0   0  20  70
INL  32  62  55  70 /   0   0  60  60
BRD  42  65  58  71 /   0   0  20  50
HYR  40  60  53  69 /   0   0  10  60
ASX  34  58  49  68 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ012-021.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ010-011-019-020.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     WIZ002>004-008-009.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 172330
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 19Z...STRATUS WAS FLOWING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN NE
FLOW FROM ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA. THE COLD FRONT THAT
HAD BEEN SITTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY...IS FINALLY WORKING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA WITH SOME CU. IN BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...TEMPS REACHED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. UNDER THE STRATUS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOVERING FROM THE 40S TO
THE 50S. EXPECT THE CU TO DISSIPATE/MOVE S OF THE AREA BY SUNSET.
THE STRATUS HOWEVER APPEARS AS IF IT WILL HANG ON IN PATCHES THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON FROST DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH
FROST FORMATION TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. WITH A
SE FLOW...THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM RISING AS THEY TYPICALLY
WOULD IN SW FLOW. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKE TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND. UPPER 50S TO THE 60S
WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WHICH LOOKS POTENTIALLY
WET AND STORMY. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING 850 HPA SSW TO SW FLOW OF ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL SURGE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE SURGE IN HEAT AND MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ONE OR MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SUGGEST SOME AREAS COULD GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...MAYBE
MORE THAN A HALF INCH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AND POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE COOL NW FLOW COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROMOTE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WIDE VARIETY OF CLOUD HEIGHTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EVEN INTO THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVED ACROSS THE REGION WAS NOW USHERING IN SOME LOWER CIGS. SOME
IFR AND MVFR CIGS WILL BECOME COMMON ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ON THURSDAY...BUT WE WILL
LIKELY STILL SEE SOME MVFR CIGS AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  55  49  64 /   0   0  20  70
INL  32  62  55  70 /   0   0  60  60
BRD  42  65  58  71 /   0   0  20  50
HYR  40  60  53  69 /   0   0  10  60
ASX  34  58  49  68 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ012-021.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ010-011-019-020.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     WIZ002>004-008-009.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 172020
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

AT 19Z...STRATUS WAS FLOWING OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA IN NE
FLOW FROM ADVANCING HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA. THE COLD FRONT THAT
HAD BEEN SITTING OVER THE AREA FOR THE LAST DAY...IS FINALLY WORKING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FA WITH SOME CU. IN BETWEEN WHERE
THERE WERE NO CLOUDS...TEMPS REACHED INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. UNDER THE STRATUS...TEMPS HAVE BEEN HOVERING FROM THE 40S TO
THE 50S. EXPECT THE CU TO DISSIPATE/MOVE S OF THE AREA BY SUNSET.
THE STRATUS HOWEVER APPEARS AS IF IT WILL HANG ON IN PATCHES THROUGH
THE NIGHT. THE OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE CLOUD COVER WILL HAVE AN
IMPACT ON FROST DEVELOPMENT. REGARDLESS...HAVE CONFIDENCE IN ENOUGH
FROST FORMATION TO ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE HEADLINES FOR MUCH OF THE
AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR ON THURSDAY. WITH A
SE FLOW...THIS WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS FROM RISING AS THEY TYPICALLY
WOULD IN SW FLOW. COOLEST TEMPS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE ARROWHEAD
WITH 40S NEAR THE LAKE TO MIDDLE 50S INLAND. UPPER 50S TO THE 60S
WILL OCCUR ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD WHICH LOOKS POTENTIALLY
WET AND STORMY. A VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. MODELS ARE
INDICATING 850 HPA SSW TO SW FLOW OF ABOUT 40 TO 45 KNOTS
ACCOMPANIED BY A SURGE IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES WILL SURGE TO 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY FOR
LATE SEPTEMBER.

THE SURGE IN HEAT AND MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE WETTEST PERIOD
WILL LIKELY BE FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROUGH AND ONE OR MORE POTENT
SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THE HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES SUGGEST SOME AREAS COULD GET SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL...MAYBE
MORE THAN A HALF INCH.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW AND POTENT SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION SATURDAY...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE COOL NW FLOW COULD
BRING LIGHT SHOWERS TO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK WHICH WILL
PROMOTE SUNNY AND DRY WEATHER FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOVE AVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND NEAR
NORMAL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND THEN NE TO E IN ITS WAKE. THE MUCH STRONGER FLOW THAT
IS EXPECTED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CAUSE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION AT KDLH AROUND 19Z.

LOW CIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
AFFECT THE KDLH/KHYR/KHIB AREAS WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
IT COULD ALSO AFFECT THE KINL AND KBRD AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  55  49  64 /   0   0  20  70
INL  32  62  55  70 /   0   0  60  60
BRD  42  65  58  71 /   0   0  20  50
HYR  40  60  53  69 /   0   0  10  60
ASX  34  58  49  68 /   0   0  10  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ012-021.

     FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     MNZ010-011-019-020.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 7 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     WIZ002>004-008-009.

     BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI









000
FXUS63 KDLH 171737 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD REACHED THE TWIN PORTS BY 14Z AND PICKED UP
WELL ON RADAR. ONLY A THIN BAND OF CLOUDS AND A WIND SWITCH TO THE
N BRIEFLY. AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WAS
DISSIPATING AS DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THIS AREA AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WHEN COLD FRONT DECIDES TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA. NO
MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED AFTER THE SOWERS ALONG THE BORDER ARE GONE.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE CWA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A NW MID LVL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES/SERN CANADA. UPPER JET CORE RESIDES FROM ST LAWRENCE
RIVER TO SRN HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS UPPER JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BDRY THAT DROPS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ISLE ROYALE
AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA TO SRN SASK. A WEAK WAVE IS IDENTIFIED
ON MSAS NW OF KCDD. SFC PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST LAST 3 HRS. AN AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2K FEET WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST RAP13 ANALYSIS. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR WISC TO THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS MOST OF NE MN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TODAY...VERY INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS FRONTAL BDRY SURGES SOUTH AND
GENERATES A QUICK SURGE OF COOLING...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS/SOUTH SHORE.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-
RES MDLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE BDRY. THIS WILL TAKE FRONTAL BDRY INTO TWIN PORTS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH TO A PARK FALLS TO HINCKLEY LINE BY
LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTH
SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SFC BDRY A QUICK WARM UP IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.
GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH MET/EC MOS COOLER THAN MAV.
DLHWRF/NAM12 WARMEST WITH READINGS NEAR 70 AT KDLH WHILE EC MOS
COOLEST AT 57. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO HIGHER VALUES BUT ANY
ACCELERATION OF WIND SHIFT/CLOUDS MAY TANK THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING.

TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO CTRL ONTARIO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN
CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE A MOSTLY DECOUPLED
BDRY LYR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR BRD LAKES REGION....PERHAPS EVEN BLO FZING OVER
EXTREME ERN WISC PART OF CWA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SOME AREAS IN IRON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FRZ TEMPS HOWEVER PRICE/ASHLAND HAVE NOT.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST TO ERN GT LAKES WHILE RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
BASED ON FCST LOW/MID LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE KEPT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FCST THROUGHOUT MOST OF CTRL CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 T0 10 DEGREES BLO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A COLD CORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...AND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS RETURN
TO THE LOW TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY....KEEPING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...IS ON TRACK TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY...KEEPING SCT SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR DIFFERS SOME...THE
LATEST ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUB-ZERO H85 TEMPS
SINK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE DAKOTAS. ATTM...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND THEN NE TO E IN ITS WAKE. THE MUCH STRONGER FLOW THAT
IS EXPECTED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CAUSE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION AT KDLH AROUND 19Z.

LOW CIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
AFFECT THE KDLH/KHYR/KHIB AREAS WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
IT COULD ALSO AFFECT THE KINL AND KBRD AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  38  55  48 /  10   0   0  20
INL  54  32  62  52 /  40   0   0  40
BRD  69  43  66  55 /   0  10   0  30
HYR  67  35  62  49 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  62  34  58  46 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 171737 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD REACHED THE TWIN PORTS BY 14Z AND PICKED UP
WELL ON RADAR. ONLY A THIN BAND OF CLOUDS AND A WIND SWITCH TO THE
N BRIEFLY. AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WAS
DISSIPATING AS DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THIS AREA AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WHEN COLD FRONT DECIDES TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA. NO
MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED AFTER THE SOWERS ALONG THE BORDER ARE GONE.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE CWA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A NW MID LVL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES/SERN CANADA. UPPER JET CORE RESIDES FROM ST LAWRENCE
RIVER TO SRN HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS UPPER JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BDRY THAT DROPS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ISLE ROYALE
AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA TO SRN SASK. A WEAK WAVE IS IDENTIFIED
ON MSAS NW OF KCDD. SFC PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST LAST 3 HRS. AN AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2K FEET WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST RAP13 ANALYSIS. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR WISC TO THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS MOST OF NE MN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TODAY...VERY INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS FRONTAL BDRY SURGES SOUTH AND
GENERATES A QUICK SURGE OF COOLING...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS/SOUTH SHORE.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-
RES MDLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE BDRY. THIS WILL TAKE FRONTAL BDRY INTO TWIN PORTS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH TO A PARK FALLS TO HINCKLEY LINE BY
LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTH
SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SFC BDRY A QUICK WARM UP IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.
GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH MET/EC MOS COOLER THAN MAV.
DLHWRF/NAM12 WARMEST WITH READINGS NEAR 70 AT KDLH WHILE EC MOS
COOLEST AT 57. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO HIGHER VALUES BUT ANY
ACCELERATION OF WIND SHIFT/CLOUDS MAY TANK THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING.

TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO CTRL ONTARIO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN
CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE A MOSTLY DECOUPLED
BDRY LYR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR BRD LAKES REGION....PERHAPS EVEN BLO FZING OVER
EXTREME ERN WISC PART OF CWA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SOME AREAS IN IRON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FRZ TEMPS HOWEVER PRICE/ASHLAND HAVE NOT.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST TO ERN GT LAKES WHILE RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
BASED ON FCST LOW/MID LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE KEPT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FCST THROUGHOUT MOST OF CTRL CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 T0 10 DEGREES BLO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A COLD CORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...AND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS RETURN
TO THE LOW TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY....KEEPING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...IS ON TRACK TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY...KEEPING SCT SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR DIFFERS SOME...THE
LATEST ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUB-ZERO H85 TEMPS
SINK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE DAKOTAS. ATTM...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...TURNING WINDS TO THE
NORTH AND THEN NE TO E IN ITS WAKE. THE MUCH STRONGER FLOW THAT
IS EXPECTED OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CAUSE AN ABRUPT CHANGE IN WIND
DIRECTION AT KDLH AROUND 19Z.

LOW CIGS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BEHIND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY SPREAD
INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY
AFFECT THE KDLH/KHYR/KHIB AREAS WITH A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS...BUT
IT COULD ALSO AFFECT THE KINL AND KBRD AREAS OVERNIGHT.

THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME SE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  38  55  48 /  10   0   0  20
INL  54  32  62  52 /  40   0   0  40
BRD  69  43  66  55 /   0  10   0  30
HYR  67  35  62  49 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  62  34  58  46 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 171359
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
859 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 858 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAD REACHED THE TWIN PORTS BY 14Z AND PICKED UP
WELL ON RADAR. ONLY A THIN BAND OF CLOUDS AND A WIND SWITCH TO THE
N BRIEFLY. AREA OF SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WAS
DISSIPATING AS DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THIS AREA AS SEEN ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. CLOUDS WILL STILL BE ON THE INCREASE TODAY
WHEN COLD FRONT DECIDES TO DROP THROUGH THE REST OF THE FA. NO
MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED AFTER THE SOWERS ALONG THE BORDER ARE GONE.
MADE ADJUSTMENTS FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE CWA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A NW MID LVL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES/SERN CANADA. UPPER JET CORE RESIDES FROM ST LAWRENCE
RIVER TO SRN HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS UPPER JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BDRY THAT DROPS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ISLE ROYALE
AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA TO SRN SASK. A WEAK WAVE IS IDENTIFIED
ON MSAS NW OF KCDD. SFC PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST LAST 3 HRS. AN AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2K FEET WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST RAP13 ANALYSIS. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR WISC TO THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS MOST OF NE MN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TODAY...VERY INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS FRONTAL BDRY SURGES SOUTH AND
GENERATES A QUICK SURGE OF COOLING...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS/SOUTH SHORE.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-
RES MDLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE BDRY. THIS WILL TAKE FRONTAL BDRY INTO TWIN PORTS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH TO A PARK FALLS TO HINCKLEY LINE BY
LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTH
SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SFC BDRY A QUICK WARM UP IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.
GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH MET/EC MOS COOLER THAN MAV.
DLHWRF/NAM12 WARMEST WITH READINGS NEAR 70 AT KDLH WHILE EC MOS
COOLEST AT 57. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO HIGHER VALUES BUT ANY
ACCELERATION OF WIND SHIFT/CLOUDS MAY TANK THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING.

TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO CTRL ONTARIO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN
CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE A MOSTLY DECOUPLED
BDRY LYR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR BRD LAKES REGION....PERHAPS EVEN BLO FZING OVER
EXTREME ERN WISC PART OF CWA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SOME AREAS IN IRON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FRZ TEMPS HOWEVER PRICE/ASHLAND HAVE NOT.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST TO ERN GT LAKES WHILE RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
BASED ON FCST LOW/MID LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE KEPT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FCST THROUGHOUT MOST OF CTRL CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 T0 10 DEGREES BLO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A COLD CORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...AND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS RETURN
TO THE LOW TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY....KEEPING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...IS ON TRACK TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY...KEEPING SCT SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR DIFFERS SOME...THE
LATEST ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUB-ZERO H85 TEMPS
SINK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE DAKOTAS. ATTM...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SINK ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. AS THE COLD
AIR PUSHES WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS...AND AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE KDLH TERMINAL
AROUND 20Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT AT KINL AND KHIB THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
EAST WINDS THIS EVENING ALLOWS THE LOW CLOUDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO AFFECT THE KHIB/KBRD/KHYR AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  38  55  48 /  10   0   0  20
INL  55  32  62  52 /  40   0   0  40
BRD  70  43  66  55 /   0  10   0  30
HYR  67  35  62  49 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  62  34  58  46 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
     141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 171222 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
719 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE CWA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A NW MID LVL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES/SERN CANADA. UPPER JET CORE RESIDES FROM ST LAWRENCE
RIVER TO SRN HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS UPPER JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BDRY THAT DROPS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ISLE ROYALE
AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA TO SRN SASK. A WEAK WAVE IS IDENTIFIED
ON MSAS NW OF KCDD. SFC PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST LAST 3 HRS. AN AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2K FEET WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST RAP13 ANALYSIS. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR WISC TO THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS MOST OF NE MN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TODAY...VERY INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS FRONTAL BDRY SURGES SOUTH AND
GENERATES A QUICK SURGE OF COOLING...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS/SOUTH SHORE.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-
RES MDLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE BDRY. THIS WILL TAKE FRONTAL BDRY INTO TWIN PORTS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH TO A PARK FALLS TO HINCKLEY LINE BY
LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTH
SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SFC BDRY A QUICK WARM UP IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.
GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH MET/EC MOS COOLER THAN MAV.
DLHWRF/NAM12 WARMEST WITH READINGS NEAR 70 AT KDLH WHILE EC MOS
COOLEST AT 57. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO HIGHER VALUES BUT ANY
ACCELERATION OF WINDSHIFT/CLOUDS MAY TANK THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING.

TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO CTRL ONTARIO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN
CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE A MOSTLY DECOUPLED
BDRY LYR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR BRD LAKES REGION....PERHAPS EVEN BLO FZING OVER
EXTREME ERN WISC PART OF CWA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SOME AREAS IN IRON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FRZ TEMPS HOWEVER PRICE/ASHLAND HAVE NOT.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST TO ERN GT LAKES WHILE RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
BASED ON FCST LOW/MID LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE KEPT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FCST THROUGHOUT MOST OF CTRL CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 T0 10 DEGREES BLO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A COLD CORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...AND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS RETURN
TO THE LOW TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY....KEEPING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...IS ON TRACK TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY...KEEPING SCT SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR DIFFERS SOME...THE
LATEST ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUB-ZERO H85 TEMPS
SINK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE DAKOTAS. ATTM...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SINK ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. AS THE COLD
AIR PUSHES WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS...AND AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE KDLH TERMINAL
AROUND 20Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT AT KINL AND KHIB THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
EAST WINDS THIS EVENING ALLOWS THE LOW CLOUDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO AFFECT THE KHIB/KBRD/KHYR AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  38  55  48 /  10   0   0  20
INL  54  32  62  52 /  40   0   0  40
BRD  69  43  66  55 /   0  10   0  30
HYR  67  35  62  49 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  62  34  58  46 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING










000
FXUS63 KDLH 171222 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
719 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE CWA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A NW MID LVL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES/SERN CANADA. UPPER JET CORE RESIDES FROM ST LAWRENCE
RIVER TO SRN HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS UPPER JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BDRY THAT DROPS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ISLE ROYALE
AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA TO SRN SASK. A WEAK WAVE IS IDENTIFIED
ON MSAS NW OF KCDD. SFC PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST LAST 3 HRS. AN AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2K FEET WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST RAP13 ANALYSIS. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR WISC TO THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS MOST OF NE MN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TODAY...VERY INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS FRONTAL BDRY SURGES SOUTH AND
GENERATES A QUICK SURGE OF COOLING...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS/SOUTH SHORE.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-
RES MDLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE BDRY. THIS WILL TAKE FRONTAL BDRY INTO TWIN PORTS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH TO A PARK FALLS TO HINCKLEY LINE BY
LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTH
SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SFC BDRY A QUICK WARM UP IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.
GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH MET/EC MOS COOLER THAN MAV.
DLHWRF/NAM12 WARMEST WITH READINGS NEAR 70 AT KDLH WHILE EC MOS
COOLEST AT 57. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO HIGHER VALUES BUT ANY
ACCELERATION OF WINDSHIFT/CLOUDS MAY TANK THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING.

TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO CTRL ONTARIO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN
CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE A MOSTLY DECOUPLED
BDRY LYR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR BRD LAKES REGION....PERHAPS EVEN BLO FZING OVER
EXTREME ERN WISC PART OF CWA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SOME AREAS IN IRON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FRZ TEMPS HOWEVER PRICE/ASHLAND HAVE NOT.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST TO ERN GT LAKES WHILE RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
BASED ON FCST LOW/MID LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE KEPT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FCST THROUGHOUT MOST OF CTRL CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 T0 10 DEGREES BLO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A COLD CORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...AND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS RETURN
TO THE LOW TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY....KEEPING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...IS ON TRACK TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY...KEEPING SCT SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR DIFFERS SOME...THE
LATEST ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUB-ZERO H85 TEMPS
SINK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE DAKOTAS. ATTM...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SINK ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. AS THE COLD
AIR PUSHES WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS...AND AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE KDLH TERMINAL
AROUND 20Z. A PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD
FRONT AT KINL AND KHIB THIS MORNING. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
EAST WINDS THIS EVENING ALLOWS THE LOW CLOUDS OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO
SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO AFFECT THE KHIB/KBRD/KHYR AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  38  55  48 /  10   0   0  20
INL  54  32  62  52 /  40   0   0  40
BRD  69  43  66  55 /   0  10   0  30
HYR  67  35  62  49 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  62  34  58  46 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING









000
FXUS63 KDLH 171215
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
715 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE CWA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A NW MID LVL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES/SERN CANADA. UPPER JET CORE RESIDES FROM ST LAWRENCE
RIVER TO SRN HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS UPPER JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BDRY THAT DROPS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ISLE ROYALE
AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA TO SRN SASK. A WEAK WAVE IS IDENTIFIED
ON MSAS NW OF KCDD. SFC PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST LAST 3 HRS. AN AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2K FEET WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST RAP13 ANALYSIS. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR WISC TO THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS MOST OF NE MN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TODAY...VERY INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS FRONTAL BDRY SURGES SOUTH AND
GENERATES A QUICK SURGE OF COOLING...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS/SOUTH SHORE.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-
RES MDLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE BDRY. THIS WILL TAKE FRONTAL BDRY INTO TWIN PORTS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH TO A PARK FALLS TO HINCKLEY LINE BY
LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTH
SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SFC BDRY A QUICK WARM UP IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.
GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH MET/EC MOS COOLER THAN MAV.
DLHWRF/NAM12 WARMEST WITH READINGS NEAR 70 AT KDLH WHILE EC MOS
COOLEST AT 57. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO HIGHER VALUES BUT ANY
ACCELERATION OF WINDSHIFT/CLOUDS MAY TANK THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING.

TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO CTRL ONTARIO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN
CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE A MOSTLY DECOUPLED
BDRY LYR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR BRD LAKES REGION....PERHAPS EVEN BLO FZING OVER
EXTREME ERN WISC PART OF CWA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SOME AREAS IN IRON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FRZ TEMPS HOWEVER PRICE/ASHLAND HAVE NOT.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST TO ERN GT LAKES WHILE RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
BASED ON FCST LOW/MID LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE KEPT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FCST THROUGHOUT MOST OF CTRL CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 T0 10 DEGREES BLO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A COLD CORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...AND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS RETURN
TO THE LOW TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY....KEEPING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...IS ON TRACK TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY...KEEPING SCT SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR DIFFERS SOME...THE
LATEST ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUB-ZERO H85 TEMPS
SINK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE DAKOTAS. ATTM...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SINK ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. AS THE COLD
AIR PUSHES WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS...AND AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE KDLH TERMINAL
AROUND 20Z. HAVE KEPT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
EAST WINDS MAY ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO
AFFECT THE KHIB/KBRD/KHYR AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  38  55  48 /  10   0   0  20
INL  54  32  62  52 /  40   0   0  40
BRD  69  43  66  55 /   0  10   0  30
HYR  67  35  62  49 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  62  34  58  46 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 171215
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
715 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE CWA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A NW MID LVL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES/SERN CANADA. UPPER JET CORE RESIDES FROM ST LAWRENCE
RIVER TO SRN HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS UPPER JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BDRY THAT DROPS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ISLE ROYALE
AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA TO SRN SASK. A WEAK WAVE IS IDENTIFIED
ON MSAS NW OF KCDD. SFC PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST LAST 3 HRS. AN AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2K FEET WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST RAP13 ANALYSIS. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR WISC TO THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS MOST OF NE MN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TODAY...VERY INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS FRONTAL BDRY SURGES SOUTH AND
GENERATES A QUICK SURGE OF COOLING...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS/SOUTH SHORE.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-
RES MDLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE BDRY. THIS WILL TAKE FRONTAL BDRY INTO TWIN PORTS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH TO A PARK FALLS TO HINCKLEY LINE BY
LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTH
SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SFC BDRY A QUICK WARM UP IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.
GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH MET/EC MOS COOLER THAN MAV.
DLHWRF/NAM12 WARMEST WITH READINGS NEAR 70 AT KDLH WHILE EC MOS
COOLEST AT 57. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO HIGHER VALUES BUT ANY
ACCELERATION OF WINDSHIFT/CLOUDS MAY TANK THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING.

TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO CTRL ONTARIO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN
CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE A MOSTLY DECOUPLED
BDRY LYR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR BRD LAKES REGION....PERHAPS EVEN BLO FZING OVER
EXTREME ERN WISC PART OF CWA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SOME AREAS IN IRON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FRZ TEMPS HOWEVER PRICE/ASHLAND HAVE NOT.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST TO ERN GT LAKES WHILE RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
BASED ON FCST LOW/MID LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE KEPT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FCST THROUGHOUT MOST OF CTRL CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 T0 10 DEGREES BLO CLIMO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A COLD CORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...AND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS RETURN
TO THE LOW TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY....KEEPING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...IS ON TRACK TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY...KEEPING SCT SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR DIFFERS SOME...THE
LATEST ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUB-ZERO H85 TEMPS
SINK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE DAKOTAS. ATTM...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL SINK ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY. AS THE COLD
AIR PUSHES WEST ACROSS LAKE SUPERIOR...IT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS
WITH MVFR CEILINGS...AND AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE KDLH TERMINAL
AROUND 20Z. HAVE KEPT PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT THE OTHER TAF
SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE
EAST WINDS MAY ALLOW THE LOW CLOUDS TO SPREAD FAR ENOUGH INLAND TO
AFFECT THE KHIB/KBRD/KHYR AREAS THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  38  55  48 /  10   0   0  20
INL  54  32  62  52 /  40   0   0  40
BRD  69  43  66  55 /   0  10   0  30
HYR  67  35  62  49 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  62  34  58  46 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 170854
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
354 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014


...ABRUPT CHANGE IN WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...


.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE CWA REMAINS UNDERNEATH A NW MID LVL FLOW PRODUCED BY THE LARGE
SCALE RIDGING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES AND THE BROAD TROF OVER THE ERN
GT LAKES/SERN CANADA. UPPER JET CORE RESIDES FROM ST LAWRENCE
RIVER TO SRN HUDSON BAY AND CENTRAL MANITOBA. THIS UPPER JET IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BDRY THAT DROPS FROM SRN QUEBEC TO ISLE ROYALE
AND THEN NORTH OF THE CWA TO SRN SASK. A WEAK WAVE IS IDENTIFIED
ON MSAS NW OF KCDD. SFC PRESS RISE/FALL COUPLET HAS BEEN
PROGRESSING STEADILY EAST LAST 3 HRS. AN AREA OF MID LVL CLOUDS IS
SWEEPING ACROSS THE NERN CWA. LOWER CLOUDS ALONG THE ELEVATED
TERRAIN OF COOK COUNTY HAD DEVELOPED AS AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE
LOWEST 2K FEET WAS EVIDENT ON LATEST RAP13 ANALYSIS. TEMPS RANGE
FROM THE MID 30S OVER INTERIOR WISC TO THE LOW TO MID 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR IN THE TWIN PORTS AND ACROSS MOST OF NE MN AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING FRONT.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TODAY...VERY INTERESTING DAY AHEAD AS FRONTAL BDRY SURGES SOUTH AND
GENERATES A QUICK SURGE OF COOLING...GUSTY WINDS...AND CLOUD
COVER ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS/SOUTH SHORE.
THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES WITH THE TIMING OF THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. HAVE OPTED TO USE A BLEND OF HI-
RES MDLS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE BDRY. THIS WILL TAKE FRONTAL BDRY INTO TWIN PORTS EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON...AND SOUTH TO A PARK FALLS TO HINCKLEY LINE BY
LATE AFTN. NOT EXPECTING PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE HOWEVER AN AREA
OF LOW CLOUDS WILL ADVECT SOUTH FROM NRN LAKE SUPERIOR/NORTH
SHORE. AHEAD OF THIS SFC BDRY A QUICK WARMUP IS LIKELY ALTHOUGH
MAY NEED TO ADJUST FCST MAX TEMPS EVEN HIGHER THAN CURRENT FCST.
GUIDANCE VARIES CONSIDERABLY WITH MET/EC MOS COOLER THAN MAV.
DLHWRF/NAM12 WARMEST WITH READINGS NEAR 70 AT KDLH WHILE EC MOS
COOLEST AT 57. HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO HIGHER VALUES BUT ANY
ACCELERATION OF WINDSHIFT/CLOUDS MAY TANK THE POTENTIAL FOR
WARMING.

TONIGHT...LARGE SFC HIGH WILL MOVE INTO CTRL ONTARIO BY EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING AS MID LVL RIDGING BUILDS OVER NRN PLAINS/UPPER
MIDWEST. POSITIONING OF SFC HIGH PRODUCES A RETURN FLOW ACROSS WRN
CWA BY 12Z. THIS WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR ABOVE A MOSTLY DECOUPLED
BDRY LYR. TEMPS SHOULD FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 30S IN MOST OF THE
CWA EXCEPT NEAR BRD LAKES REGION....PERHAPS EVEN BLO FZING OVER
EXTREME ERN WISC PART OF CWA. WILL LET DAY SHIFT DECIDE ON
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES. SOME AREAS IN IRON COUNTY HAVE ALREADY
EXPERIENCED FRZ TEMPS HOWEVER PRICE/ASHLAND HAVE NOT.

TOMORROW...SFC HIGH TRACKS EAST TO ERN GT LAKES WHILE RIDGE ALOFT
FLATTENS. THIS ALLOWS FOR A STRENGTHENING WARM ADVECTION REGIME.
BASED ON FCST LOW/MID LVL COND PRESS DEFICITS HAVE KEPT PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES IN FCST THROUGHOUT MOST OF CTRL CWA. MAX TEMPS WILL
AVERAGE ABOUT 5 T0 10 DEGREES BLO CLIMO.



.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

FOCUS FOR LONG TERM IS ON AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE...WHICH WILL DIVE
ACROSS SRN CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT...DEEPENING INTO A COLD CORE LONG
WAVE TROUGH AS IT SWEEPS OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

HAVE INCREASING POPS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS
A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH CONFLUENT MID-LEVEL FLOW
SLIDES EAST ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS...AND OVER THE WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR REGION. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT H85 TEMPS RETURN
TO THE LOW TEENS BY FRIDAY MORNING...WARMING INTO THE UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK SFC/MID-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL TRACK OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY....KEEPING A CHC FOR SHOWERS AND BRINGING A TRANSITION TO
COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH...WITH REINFORCING COLD
FRONT...IS ON TRACK TO DROP OUT OF CANADA AND PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY...KEEPING SCT SHOWERS IN THE FCST FOR MOST AREAS.
ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLDEST AIR DIFFERS SOME...THE
LATEST ECM AND GFS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SUB-ZERO H85 TEMPS
SINK OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR MONDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING RETURNS
TO THE DAKOTAS. ATTM...THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY
WITH A DEVELOPING RETURN FLOW AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT...AND THEN DRIFT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A MARKED
CHANGE IN WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS AS WELL.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  38  55  48 /  10   0   0  20
INL  54  32  62  52 /  40   0   0  50
BRD  69  43  66  55 /   0  10   0  30
HYR  67  35  62  49 /  10  10   0  20
ASX  62  34  58  46 /  10   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...DAP









000
FXUS63 KDLH 170529
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1229 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN MN AT 19Z AND WAS
LOCATED FROM LUTSEN TO ELY TO NEAR COOK. NO RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT...JUST PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPS S OF THE FRONT HAD
WARMED INTO THE 60S...TO NEAR 70 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES TO AITKIN
AREA. N OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE
FRONT ADVANCES TO NEAR THE TWIN PORTS TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EDGE
OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE ARROWHEAD
LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROF CONTINUES ON ITS WAY SEWD OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND HAVE
POPS IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY NOON. MAY
SEE A STRAY SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT
EXITS IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. A NE
WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS HIGH ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER MAX TEMPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WELL INLAND...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REACH THE
UPPER 60S FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE ST. CROIX VALLEY TO THE
CHEQUAMEGON NATIONAL FOREST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOW
40S AND 30S. THE COLDEST AREA WILL LIKELY BE THE INTERIOR ARROWHEAD
DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT AND CLEARER SKIES. FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ARROWHEAD AND NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN NW
WISCONSIN.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN ONTARIO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO
THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND WELL
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE A RELATIVELY NICE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT EASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN THE 50S.

THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS WET AND STORMY. A SURFACE LOW
STRADDLING THE BORDER BETWEEN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE CANADA AND ITS
COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL STEADILY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL SURGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF
ABOUT 40 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD CLIMB TO AS MUCH AS
1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...WHICH IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER
THAN NORMAL WHEN COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY. THE SURGE
IN HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF ANY PCPN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRONG WARM FLOW ALOFT
COULD CAUSE TOO MUCH CAPPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING TO
RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN.

THE STORMIEST PERIOD COULD BE FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE FRIDAY NIGHT SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
TO ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DUE TO SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE STRONG COLD
NW FLOW COULD RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT...AND THEN DRIFT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A MARKED
CHANGE IN WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS AS WELL.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  56  48  65 /   0   0  20  60
INL  37  62  51  69 /   0   0  40  60
BRD  43  65  55  71 /   0   0  30  50
HYR  39  62  51  67 /   0   0  20  60
ASX  37  59  49  66 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 170529
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1229 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014


.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN MN AT 19Z AND WAS
LOCATED FROM LUTSEN TO ELY TO NEAR COOK. NO RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT...JUST PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPS S OF THE FRONT HAD
WARMED INTO THE 60S...TO NEAR 70 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES TO AITKIN
AREA. N OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE
FRONT ADVANCES TO NEAR THE TWIN PORTS TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EDGE
OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE ARROWHEAD
LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROF CONTINUES ON ITS WAY SEWD OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND HAVE
POPS IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY NOON. MAY
SEE A STRAY SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT
EXITS IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. A NE
WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS HIGH ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER MAX TEMPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WELL INLAND...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REACH THE
UPPER 60S FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE ST. CROIX VALLEY TO THE
CHEQUAMEGON NATIONAL FOREST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOW
40S AND 30S. THE COLDEST AREA WILL LIKELY BE THE INTERIOR ARROWHEAD
DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT AND CLEARER SKIES. FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ARROWHEAD AND NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN NW
WISCONSIN.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN ONTARIO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO
THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND WELL
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE A RELATIVELY NICE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT EASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN THE 50S.

THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS WET AND STORMY. A SURFACE LOW
STRADDLING THE BORDER BETWEEN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE CANADA AND ITS
COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL STEADILY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL SURGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF
ABOUT 40 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD CLIMB TO AS MUCH AS
1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...WHICH IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER
THAN NORMAL WHEN COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY. THE SURGE
IN HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF ANY PCPN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRONG WARM FLOW ALOFT
COULD CAUSE TOO MUCH CAPPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING TO
RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN.

THE STORMIEST PERIOD COULD BE FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE FRIDAY NIGHT SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
TO ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DUE TO SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE STRONG COLD
NW FLOW COULD RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE FURTHER SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER OVERNIGHT...AND THEN DRIFT ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY. A MARKED
CHANGE IN WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED AS THE COLD FRONT
MOVES ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION...WITH SOME GUSTS AS WELL.
LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  56  48  65 /   0   0  20  60
INL  37  62  51  69 /   0   0  40  60
BRD  43  65  55  71 /   0   0  30  50
HYR  39  62  51  67 /   0   0  20  60
ASX  37  59  49  66 /   0   0  20  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 162337
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN MN AT 19Z AND WAS
LOCATED FROM LUTSEN TO ELY TO NEAR COOK. NO RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT...JUST PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPS S OF THE FRONT HAD
WARMED INTO THE 60S...TO NEAR 70 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES TO AITKIN
AREA. N OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE
FRONT ADVANCES TO NEAR THE TWIN PORTS TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EDGE
OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE ARROWHEAD
LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROF CONTINUES ON ITS WAY SEWD OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND HAVE
POPS IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY NOON. MAY
SEE A STRAY SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT
EXITS IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. A NE
WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS HIGH ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER MAX TEMPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WELL INLAND...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REACH THE
UPPER 60S FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE ST. CROIX VALLEY TO THE
CHEQUAMEGON NATIONAL FOREST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOW
40S AND 30S. THE COLDEST AREA WILL LIKELY BE THE INTERIOR ARROWHEAD
DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT AND CLEARER SKIES. FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ARROWHEAD AND NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN NW
WISCONSIN.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN ONTARIO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO
THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND WELL
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE A RELATIVELY NICE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT EASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN THE 50S.

THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS WET AND STORMY. A SURFACE LOW
STRADDLING THE BORDER BETWEEN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE CANADA AND ITS
COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL STEADILY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL SURGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF
ABOUT 40 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD CLIMB TO AS MUCH AS
1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...WHICH IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER
THAN NORMAL WHEN COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY. THE SURGE
IN HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF ANY PCPN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRONG WARM FLOW ALOFT
COULD CAUSE TOO MUCH CAPPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING TO
RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN.

THE STORMIEST PERIOD COULD BE FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE FRIDAY NIGHT SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
TO ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DUE TO SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE STRONG COLD
NW FLOW COULD RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SPREADS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  62  40  56 /   0  10   0   0
INL  42  55  37  62 /  20  30   0   0
BRD  44  68  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  42  66  39  62 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  46  59  37  59 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 162337
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN MN AT 19Z AND WAS
LOCATED FROM LUTSEN TO ELY TO NEAR COOK. NO RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT...JUST PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPS S OF THE FRONT HAD
WARMED INTO THE 60S...TO NEAR 70 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES TO AITKIN
AREA. N OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE
FRONT ADVANCES TO NEAR THE TWIN PORTS TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EDGE
OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE ARROWHEAD
LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROF CONTINUES ON ITS WAY SEWD OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND HAVE
POPS IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY NOON. MAY
SEE A STRAY SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT
EXITS IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. A NE
WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS HIGH ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER MAX TEMPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WELL INLAND...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REACH THE
UPPER 60S FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE ST. CROIX VALLEY TO THE
CHEQUAMEGON NATIONAL FOREST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOW
40S AND 30S. THE COLDEST AREA WILL LIKELY BE THE INTERIOR ARROWHEAD
DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT AND CLEARER SKIES. FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ARROWHEAD AND NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN NW
WISCONSIN.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN ONTARIO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO
THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND WELL
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE A RELATIVELY NICE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT EASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN THE 50S.

THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS WET AND STORMY. A SURFACE LOW
STRADDLING THE BORDER BETWEEN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE CANADA AND ITS
COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL STEADILY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL SURGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF
ABOUT 40 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD CLIMB TO AS MUCH AS
1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...WHICH IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER
THAN NORMAL WHEN COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY. THE SURGE
IN HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF ANY PCPN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRONG WARM FLOW ALOFT
COULD CAUSE TOO MUCH CAPPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING TO
RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN.

THE STORMIEST PERIOD COULD BE FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE FRIDAY NIGHT SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
TO ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DUE TO SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE STRONG COLD
NW FLOW COULD RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT
THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LOCAL MVFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AROUND MIDDAY WEDNESDAY...AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SPREADS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  62  40  56 /   0  10   0   0
INL  42  55  37  62 /  20  30   0   0
BRD  44  68  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  42  66  39  62 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  46  59  37  59 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 162006
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN MN AT 19Z AND WAS
LOCATED FROM LUTSEN TO ELY TO NEAR COOK. NO RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT...JUST PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPS S OF THE FRONT HAD
WARMED INTO THE 60S...TO NEAR 70 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES TO AITKIN
AREA. N OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE
FRONT ADVANCES TO NEAR THE TWIN PORTS TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EDGE
OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE ARROWHEAD
LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROF CONTINUES ON ITS WAY SEWD OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND HAVE
POPS IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY NOON. MAY
SEE A STRAY SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT
EXITS IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. A NE
WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS HIGH ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER MAX TEMPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WELL INLAND...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REACH THE
UPPER 60S FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE ST. CROIX VALLEY TO THE
CHEQUAMEGON NATIONAL FOREST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOW
40S AND 30S. THE COLDEST AREA WILL LIKELY BE THE INTERIOR ARROWHEAD
DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT AND CLEARER SKIES. FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ARROWHEAD AND NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN NW
WISCONSIN.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN ONTARIO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO
THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND WELL
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE A RELATIVELY NICE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT EASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN THE 50S.

THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS WET AND STORMY. A SURFACE LOW
STRADDLING THE BORDER BETWEEN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE CANADA AND ITS
COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL STEADILY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL SURGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF
ABOUT 40 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD CLIMB TO AS MUCH AS
1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...WHICH IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER
THAN NORMAL WHEN COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY. THE SURGE
IN HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF ANY PCPN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRONG WARM FLOW ALOFT
COULD CAUSE TOO MUCH CAPPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING TO
RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN.

THE STORMIEST PERIOD COULD BE FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE FRIDAY NIGHT SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
TO ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DUE TO SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE STRONG COLD
NW FLOW COULD RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE FOR KINL. A COLD FRONT IN NW
ONTARIO AND MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF
LOWER MVFR CIGS THAT AFFECT THE KINL AREA LATE TONIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET THIS FAR OUT TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

ALSO...THERE IS A LOW RISK OF FOG TONIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND
VERY LIGHT WIND IN SOME AREAS. WE MIGHT NEED TO ADD MIST/FOG AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

THE SW TO W WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  62  40  56 /   0  10   0   0
INL  42  55  37  62 /  20  30   0   0
BRD  44  68  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  42  66  39  62 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  46  59  37  59 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ146-
     147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 162006
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

A SFC COLD FRONT WAS DROPPING THROUGH NORTHERN MN AT 19Z AND WAS
LOCATED FROM LUTSEN TO ELY TO NEAR COOK. NO RAIN WAS ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS FRONT...JUST PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPS S OF THE FRONT HAD
WARMED INTO THE 60S...TO NEAR 70 IN THE BRAINERD LAKES TO AITKIN
AREA. N OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE
FRONT ADVANCES TO NEAR THE TWIN PORTS TONIGHT AND THEN TO THE EDGE
OF THE FA ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE
FROPA. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES INTO WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL AID IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER OVER THE ARROWHEAD
LATE TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TROF CONTINUES ON ITS WAY SEWD OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR. BEST FORCING WILL REMAIN NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER AND HAVE
POPS IN PLACE THROUGH MID MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING BY NOON. MAY
SEE A STRAY SHOWER ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE BY MID MORNING. THE FRONT
EXITS IN THE AFTERNOON ALLOWING COOL HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN. A NE
WIND IS EXPECTED WITH THIS HIGH ALONG WITH MUCH COOLER MAX TEMPS
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WELL INLAND...MAX TEMPS WILL STILL REACH THE
UPPER 60S FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO THE ST. CROIX VALLEY TO THE
CHEQUAMEGON NATIONAL FOREST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER NW ONTARIO AND THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS.

THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL PROMOTE RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL PRIMARILY BE IN THE LOW
40S AND 30S. THE COLDEST AREA WILL LIKELY BE THE INTERIOR ARROWHEAD
DUE TO THE VERY LIGHT AND CLEARER SKIES. FROST IS POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE ARROWHEAD AND NEAR THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN NW
WISCONSIN.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TOWARDS EASTERN ONTARIO THURSDAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT INTO
THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND WELL
INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE A RELATIVELY NICE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S...BUT EASTERLY WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS CLOSER TO THE LAKE
SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER IN THE 50S.

THE LATE PART OF THE WEEK LOOKS WET AND STORMY. A SURFACE LOW
STRADDLING THE BORDER BETWEEN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE CANADA AND ITS
COLD FRONT IN THE PLAINS WILL STEADILY MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL SURGE
OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET OF
ABOUT 40 KNOTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES COULD CLIMB TO AS MUCH AS
1.5 INCHES BY FRIDAY...WHICH IS NEARLY 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS HIGHER
THAN NORMAL WHEN COMPARED TO KINL UPPER AIR CLIMATOLOGY. THE SURGE
IN HEAT AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN PERIODS OF RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST OF ANY PCPN WILL LIKELY HOLD OFF UNTIL FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GFS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRONG WARM FLOW ALOFT
COULD CAUSE TOO MUCH CAPPING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING TO
RESULT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT PCPN.

THE STORMIEST PERIOD COULD BE FRIDAY EVENING WHEN THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE FRIDAY NIGHT SW LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
TO ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
DUE TO SHORTWAVES THAT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...AND THE STRONG COLD
NW FLOW COULD RESULT IN DIURNALLY DRIVEN AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
SHOWERS.

COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE FOR KINL. A COLD FRONT IN NW
ONTARIO AND MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF
LOWER MVFR CIGS THAT AFFECT THE KINL AREA LATE TONIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET THIS FAR OUT TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

ALSO...THERE IS A LOW RISK OF FOG TONIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND
VERY LIGHT WIND IN SOME AREAS. WE MIGHT NEED TO ADD MIST/FOG AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

THE SW TO W WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  62  40  56 /   0  10   0   0
INL  42  55  37  62 /  20  30   0   0
BRD  44  68  43  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  42  66  39  62 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  46  59  37  59 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ146-
     147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 161727 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLOUDS ARE DROPPING INTO THE FA ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN NW ONTARIO IS DISSIPATING AS
IT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TRANSPORT VECTORS INDICATE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN N OF THE BORDER AND HAVE REMOVED THE
RAIN MENTION. STILL EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO PROGRESS SWD THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. OTHER MINOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS OF EARLY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH AND WEST
TOWARD THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING...THEN IT WILL CONTINUE INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT.

TODAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE BORDER
REGION LATE TODAY...SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES.

AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH TONIGHT...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE NORTHLAND.
AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FGEN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND WE BUMPED POPS UP A TAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL AID IN
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE MODELS AGREE ON MINIMAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...BUT WE
KEPT SOME LOW POPS AROUND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY. THE
FGEN IS NOT AS STRONG AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY...AND INCREASE
QUITE A BIT OVER/NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER SIXTIES FROM BRAINERD TO PARK FALLS...TO
THE UPPER FORTIES OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED
PERIOD..WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING THE STRONG S/W
TROF TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

NW FLOW ALOFT WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE WED
NIGHT/THUR. DESPITE GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER
ASCENT WITH TIME..THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.  NONETHELESS..CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SOMETIME THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY ACROSS NRN MN IN AREA OF MOST SUSTAINED LIFT.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AS LEAD COLD FRONT ACT AS A FOCUS FOR WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.

MUCH STRONGER S/W TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND CLOSE OFF A
FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER CYCLOGENESIS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD/THUNDER BAY REGION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  WHILE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE DULUTH CWA BY THIS TIME..WRAP AROUND PRECIP SHOULD AFFECT
PARTS OF NRN MN..WITH COLD ADVECTION SHOWERS DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING OF POST FRONTAL STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PERSISTING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY.

THEREAFTER..MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK..COMMENCING ANOTHER PERIOD OF NICE FALL
WEATHER. HOWEVER..TIMING ON THIS MAY BE 24-36 HOURS TOO FAST AS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS..GIVEN NORMAL BIASES
OF THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE FOR KINL. A COLD FRONT IN NW
ONTARIO AND MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF
LOWER MVFR CIGS THAT AFFECT THE KINL AREA LATE TONIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET THIS FAR OUT TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

ALSO...THERE IS A LOW RISK OF FOG TONIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND
VERY LIGHT WIND IN SOME AREAS. WE MIGHT NEED TO ADD MIST/FOG AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

THE SW TO W WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  44  62  41 /   0  10  20   0
INL  65  44  56  40 /  10  30  30   0
BRD  66  43  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  64  39  65  42 /   0  10  20  10
ASX  67  41  59  41 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ146-
     147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 161727 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

CLOUDS ARE DROPPING INTO THE FA ALONG WITH THE COLD FRONT. SHOWER
ACTIVITY THAT HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN NW ONTARIO IS DISSIPATING AS
IT APPROACHES THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TRANSPORT VECTORS INDICATE
THIS ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN N OF THE BORDER AND HAVE REMOVED THE
RAIN MENTION. STILL EXPECT MORE CLOUDS TO PROGRESS SWD THROUGH THE
DAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. OTHER MINOR CHANGES MADE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE HAS LED TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AS OF EARLY MORNING
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH AND WEST
TOWARD THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING...THEN IT WILL CONTINUE INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT.

TODAY WILL FEATURE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS OVER THE SOUTH...WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH. AS THE FRONT NEARS THE BORDER
REGION LATE TODAY...SOME SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES TODAY
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES.

AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH TONIGHT...A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE NORTHLAND.
AN AREA OF STRONG LOW LEVEL FGEN WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND WE BUMPED POPS UP A TAD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL AID IN
PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH MUCH OF THE OUR CWA ON WEDNESDAY. MOST OF
THE MODELS AGREE ON MINIMAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY...BUT WE
KEPT SOME LOW POPS AROUND WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH THE DAY. THE
FGEN IS NOT AS STRONG AS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS
WILL BE SHIFTING OUT OF THE NORTH/NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY...AND INCREASE
QUITE A BIT OVER/NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THESE NORTHEAST WINDS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER SIXTIES FROM BRAINERD TO PARK FALLS...TO
THE UPPER FORTIES OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WILL DOMINATE THE EXTENDED
PERIOD..WITH THE PRIMARY FEATURE OF INTEREST BEING THE STRONG S/W
TROF TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND.

NW FLOW ALOFT WITH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW AT THE
SURFACE AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE WED
NIGHT/THUR. DESPITE GRADUALLY INCREASING MOISTURE AND DEEP LAYER
ASCENT WITH TIME..THE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED
TO REMAIN TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.  NONETHELESS..CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND A FEW TSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY SOMETIME THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY ACROSS NRN MN IN AREA OF MOST SUSTAINED LIFT.  BETTER
CHANCES FOR MORE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
NIGHT/SATURDAY AS LEAD COLD FRONT ACT AS A FOCUS FOR WARM/MOIST
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET.

MUCH STRONGER S/W TROF IS THEN EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY AND CLOSE OFF A
FAIRLY DEEP UPPER LOW WITH ASSOCIATED DEEP-LAYER CYCLOGENESIS
SOMEWHERE NEAR THE MN ARROWHEAD/THUNDER BAY REGION BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.  WHILE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AND FRONT SHOULD BE SOUTHEAST
OF THE DULUTH CWA BY THIS TIME..WRAP AROUND PRECIP SHOULD AFFECT
PARTS OF NRN MN..WITH COLD ADVECTION SHOWERS DRIVEN BY DAYTIME
HEATING OF POST FRONTAL STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES PERSISTING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO MONDAY.

THEREAFTER..MID LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD BUILD INTO THE REGION BY THE
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK..COMMENCING ANOTHER PERIOD OF NICE FALL
WEATHER. HOWEVER..TIMING ON THIS MAY BE 24-36 HOURS TOO FAST AS
CURRENTLY ADVERTISED BY THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS..GIVEN NORMAL BIASES
OF THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEMBER SOLUTIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THE WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. THE EXCEPTION MIGHT BE FOR KINL. A COLD FRONT IN NW
ONTARIO AND MANITOBA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING. THERE COULD BE A BAND OF
LOWER MVFR CIGS THAT AFFECT THE KINL AREA LATE TONIGHT AND IN THE
MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH YET THIS FAR OUT TO
INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

ALSO...THERE IS A LOW RISK OF FOG TONIGHT DUE TO CLEAR SKIES AND
VERY LIGHT WIND IN SOME AREAS. WE MIGHT NEED TO ADD MIST/FOG AND
VSBY RESTRICTIONS TO LATER FORECASTS IF CONFIDENCE IMPROVES.

THE SW TO W WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
WEAKEN AND BECOME VERY LIGHT OVERNIGHT. LIGHT N TO NE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP WEDNESDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  44  62  41 /   0  10  20   0
INL  65  44  56  40 /  10  30  30   0
BRD  66  43  67  44 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  64  39  65  42 /   0  10  20  10
ASX  67  41  59  41 /   0  10  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ146-
     147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







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