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000
FXUS63 KDLH 310948
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
348 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE FROM THE TWIN PORTS TO ASHLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALSO
CONCERNED ABOUT THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE
TONIGHT/SUN MORNING.

UPPER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY MOVING NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH NW WINDS PICKING UP AND A
FAIRLY COLD AIR MASS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING OR REMAINING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN NE MN AND INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN NW WI. THE CAA ALOFT WILL AID IN THE
CONTINUOUS CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY WITH A
SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF LAKE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE SNOW BELT
REGION OF NRN WI. ONLY LIGHT OR TRACE AMTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.

THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON THE NORTHLAND
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS -15 TO -25 DEG C MOVING
INTO THE BORDERLAND AREA AND THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT OVER THE NRN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BELOW
ZERO...WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS PRODUCING WIND CHILLS BELOW -30 F.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

AS THIS COLD AIR MASS DROPS IN AND A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES
AREA TONIGHT...FAVORABLE N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND BEGIN TO FORM LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE TWIN PORTS EWD TO ASHLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. HIGHER AMTS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IF A LAKE BAND SETS UP OVER THE SAME AREA FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST LATE SUN AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH REGARDS TO STRONG SYSTEMS
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. IT WILL MOSTLY BE COLD WITH HIGHS
FROM 5 TO NEARLY 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR MOST AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN
FOR MONDAY. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MONDAY BUT LEFT THE MENTION OF
SNOW OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DRY LOW LAYER THAT
SUPPORTS NO MENTION SNOW ATTM.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL THE MODELS DO
HAVE A SOLUTION FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OUT
OF THE NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE COLDER AIR AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT CHANCES...WE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT WE MAY NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ON FRIDAY...BUT
WE WILL WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF NOTCH OF CLEARING MAY PASS BY BRD
BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z WITH A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS THEREAFTER. WINDS
WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO VFR CIGS IS EXPECTED BEFORE
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS TO RETURN. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS PRETTY LOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY SO CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS IS LOW
ENOUGH TO GO WITH A SCT LAYER IN THE MVFR RANGE DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. LATER FORECASTS AND AMENDMENTS MAY PUSH CIGS
LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY. HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE
SURFACE BEGINNING AFTER SUNRISE AND EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT ALL
SITES FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS INCREASES FOR SATURDAY
EVENING...SO FEATURING LOWER CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  -1   8  -8 /  10  30  10   0
INL   5 -19   1 -19 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  18  -1   8  -5 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  21   3  10 -11 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  20   6   9  -7 /  30  60  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...HUYCK







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310948
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
348 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN TODAY...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF LIGHT ACCUMULATING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE FROM THE TWIN PORTS TO ASHLAND TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. ALSO
CONCERNED ABOUT THE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS EXPECTED ALONG AND NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE
TONIGHT/SUN MORNING.

UPPER SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH ARE CURRENTLY MOVING NW
TO SE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WITH NW WINDS PICKING UP AND A
FAIRLY COLD AIR MASS FILTERING IN BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLOWLY FALLING OR REMAINING STEADY THROUGH THE DAY WITH
HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS IN NE MN AND INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN NW WI. THE CAA ALOFT WILL AID IN THE
CONTINUOUS CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY WITH A
SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT OF LAKE SNOW SHOWERS AROUND THE SNOW BELT
REGION OF NRN WI. ONLY LIGHT OR TRACE AMTS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED
TODAY.

THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL BEGIN TO IMPINGE UPON THE NORTHLAND
FROM THE NORTH TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS -15 TO -25 DEG C MOVING
INTO THE BORDERLAND AREA AND THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD. SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT OVER THE NRN COUNTIES TONIGHT AND ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S BELOW
ZERO...WITH LIGHT NORTH WINDS PRODUCING WIND CHILLS BELOW -30 F.
WIND CHILL ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.

AS THIS COLD AIR MASS DROPS IN AND A POTENT WINTER STORM SYSTEM
TRACKS EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND SRN GREAT LAKES
AREA TONIGHT...FAVORABLE N/NE WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS WRN LAKE
SUPERIOR AND BEGIN TO FORM LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM THE TWIN PORTS EWD TO ASHLAND THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH UP TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE. HIGHER AMTS ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION IF A LAKE BAND SETS UP OVER THE SAME AREA FOR
AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST LATE SUN AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

THE PERIOD WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH REGARDS TO STRONG SYSTEMS
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. IT WILL MOSTLY BE COLD WITH HIGHS
FROM 5 TO NEARLY 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WILL BE DRY FOR MOST AREAS AS HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION AND A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES IN
FOR MONDAY. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER MONDAY BUT LEFT THE MENTION OF
SNOW OUT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A FAIRLY DRY LOW LAYER THAT
SUPPORTS NO MENTION SNOW ATTM.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE CENTRAL PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...BUT ALL THE MODELS DO
HAVE A SOLUTION FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO KEEP SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OUT
OF THE NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE SOME LAKE EFFECT ALONG THE
SOUTH SHORE. A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL MOVE IN
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. THE COLDER AIR AND
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

OUTSIDE OF SOME LAKE EFFECT CHANCES...WE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD FROM WEDNESDAY INTO FRIDAY. THERE ARE
SOME INDICATIONS THAT WE MAY NEED TO ADD SOME POPS ON FRIDAY...BUT
WE WILL WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL CONTINUITY BEFORE ADDING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF NOTCH OF CLEARING MAY PASS BY BRD
BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z WITH A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS THEREAFTER. WINDS
WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO VFR CIGS IS EXPECTED BEFORE
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS TO RETURN. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS PRETTY LOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY SO CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS IS LOW
ENOUGH TO GO WITH A SCT LAYER IN THE MVFR RANGE DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. LATER FORECASTS AND AMENDMENTS MAY PUSH CIGS
LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY. HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE
SURFACE BEGINNING AFTER SUNRISE AND EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT ALL
SITES FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS INCREASES FOR SATURDAY
EVENING...SO FEATURING LOWER CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  -1   8  -8 /  10  30  10   0
INL   5 -19   1 -19 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  18  -1   8  -5 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  21   3  10 -11 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  20   6   9  -7 /  30  60  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...HUYCK








000
FXUS63 KDLH 310602 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1202 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK WAVE IN NW FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING..WITH WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THUS FAR..THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS WE HAVE RECEIVED INCLUDE AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE
LUTSEN AREA SINCE 5 PM..AND JUST UNDER AN INCH IN THE INTERNATIONAL
FALLS AREA FROM EARLIER /ALTHO THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW HAS ENDED
THERE AS OF 9 PM/.

THE GOING FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING..ALTHO WE DID
MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
IN TEMPS/WINDS/SKY COVER/ETC. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AT 925 MB
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT..AND WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD
COVER..TEMPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT
FALL TOO MUCH FARTHER FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW..AND MAY EVEN RISE A
FEW DEGREES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE SW CWA IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE WARMEST SFC-925 MB TEMPS.

WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM FARGO TO LAKE OF THE WOODS..AND
WILL STEADILY PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH SAT MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN MANY AREAS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH/ ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF WINDS/COLD TEMPS LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT WIND CHILL HEADLINES SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DULUTH CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS ARE THE CLIPPER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE CLIPPER IS NOT VERY
STRONG...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF
SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING.  FLURRIES
ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE BEGINNING OF THE WAVE AS WE ARE HAVING
TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN BEFORE IT CAN SNOW...AND WE MAY SEE
SOME FLURRIES AS THE SATURATION PROCESS IS ONGOING.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.  WE WILL HAVE SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND LINGERING WELL INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AT 850MB SHOULD KICK OFF SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING SNOWS AS WELL.  DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND MAYBE 20S BELOW
IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO THE SOUTH SHORE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS VERY COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST COLD...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO AND POSSIBLY COLDER. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A COLDER END TO THE
EXTENDED AND THEN POSSIBLY A WARM UP AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF NOTCH OF CLEARING MAY PASS BY BRD
BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z WITH A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS THEREAFTER. WINDS
WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO VFR CIGS IS EXPECTED BEFORE
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS TO RETURN. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS PRETTY LOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY SO CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS IS LOW
ENOUGH TO GO WITH A SCT LAYER IN THE MVFR RANGE DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. LATER FORECASTS AND AMENDMENTS MAY PUSH CIGS
LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY. HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE
SURFACE BEGINNING AFTER SUNRISE AND EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT ALL
SITES FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS INCREASES FOR SATURDAY
EVENING...SO FEATURING LOWER CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  12  16  -7   6 /  10  10  10  10
INL   1   5 -22  -3 /  60   0   0   0
BRD  15  19  -3   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  15  21  -3   9 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  15  20   2   7 /  30  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...HUYCK








000
FXUS63 KDLH 310602 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1202 AM CST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK WAVE IN NW FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING..WITH WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THUS FAR..THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS WE HAVE RECEIVED INCLUDE AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE
LUTSEN AREA SINCE 5 PM..AND JUST UNDER AN INCH IN THE INTERNATIONAL
FALLS AREA FROM EARLIER /ALTHO THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW HAS ENDED
THERE AS OF 9 PM/.

THE GOING FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING..ALTHO WE DID
MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
IN TEMPS/WINDS/SKY COVER/ETC. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AT 925 MB
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT..AND WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD
COVER..TEMPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT
FALL TOO MUCH FARTHER FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW..AND MAY EVEN RISE A
FEW DEGREES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE SW CWA IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE WARMEST SFC-925 MB TEMPS.

WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM FARGO TO LAKE OF THE WOODS..AND
WILL STEADILY PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH SAT MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN MANY AREAS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH/ ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF WINDS/COLD TEMPS LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT WIND CHILL HEADLINES SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DULUTH CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS ARE THE CLIPPER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE CLIPPER IS NOT VERY
STRONG...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF
SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING.  FLURRIES
ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE BEGINNING OF THE WAVE AS WE ARE HAVING
TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN BEFORE IT CAN SNOW...AND WE MAY SEE
SOME FLURRIES AS THE SATURATION PROCESS IS ONGOING.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.  WE WILL HAVE SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND LINGERING WELL INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AT 850MB SHOULD KICK OFF SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING SNOWS AS WELL.  DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND MAYBE 20S BELOW
IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO THE SOUTH SHORE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS VERY COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST COLD...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO AND POSSIBLY COLDER. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A COLDER END TO THE
EXTENDED AND THEN POSSIBLY A WARM UP AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF NOTCH OF CLEARING MAY PASS BY BRD
BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z WITH A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS THEREAFTER. WINDS
WILL VEER NORTHWESTERLY WITH A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTHEAST.
BEHIND THE FRONT...A RETURN TO VFR CIGS IS EXPECTED BEFORE
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ALONG WITH A POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS TO RETURN. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY IS PRETTY LOW BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY SO CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS IS LOW
ENOUGH TO GO WITH A SCT LAYER IN THE MVFR RANGE DURING THE LATE
MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. LATER FORECASTS AND AMENDMENTS MAY PUSH CIGS
LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY. HIGHER WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX TO THE
SURFACE BEGINNING AFTER SUNRISE AND EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT ALL
SITES FOR MOST OF THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CIGS INCREASES FOR SATURDAY
EVENING...SO FEATURING LOWER CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  12  16  -7   6 /  10  10  10  10
INL   1   5 -22  -3 /  60   0   0   0
BRD  15  19  -3   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  15  21  -3   9 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  15  20   2   7 /  30  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...HUYCK







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310311 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
911 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK WAVE IN NW FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING..WITH WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THUS FAR..THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS WE HAVE RECEIVED INCLUDE AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE
LUTSEN AREA SINCE 5 PM..AND JUST UNDER AN INCH IN THE INTERNATIONAL
FALLS AREA FROM EARLIER /ALTHO THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW HAS ENDED
THERE AS OF 9 PM/.

THE GOING FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING..ALTHO WE DID
MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
IN TEMPS/WINDS/SKY COVER/ETC. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AT 925 MB
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT..AND WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD
COVER..TEMPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT
FALL TOO MUCH FARTHER FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW..AND MAY EVEN RISE A
FEW DEGREES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE SW CWA IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE WARMEST SFC-925 MB TEMPS.

WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM FARGO TO LAKE OF THE WOODS..AND
WILL STEADILY PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH SAT MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN MANY AREAS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH/ ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF WINDS/COLD TEMPS LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT WIND CHILL HEADLINES SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DULUTH CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS ARE THE CLIPPER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE CLIPPER IS NOT VERY
STRONG...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF
SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING.  FLURRIES
ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE BEGINNING OF THE WAVE AS WE ARE HAVING
TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN BEFORE IT CAN SNOW...AND WE MAY SEE
SOME FLURRIES AS THE SATURATION PROCESS IS ONGOING.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.  WE WILL HAVE SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND LINGERING WELL INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AT 850MB SHOULD KICK OFF SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING SNOWS AS WELL.  DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND MAYBE 20S BELOW
IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO THE SOUTH SHORE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS VERY COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST COLD...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO AND POSSIBLY COLDER. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A COLDER END TO THE
EXTENDED AND THEN POSSIBLY A WARM UP AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THE FIRST 12
HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD..BUT LIGHT SNOW HAS MOSTLY ENDED AT
KINL..AND REMAINING PRECIP IS LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE DULUTH TAF SITES. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z..BUT CHANCES OF ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILING
OR VISIBILITY REDUCTION ARE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW. LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL ONSET LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ON
SATURDAY..ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES..AND
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  12  16  -7   6 /  10  10  10  10
INL   1   5 -22  -3 /  60   0   0   0
BRD  15  19  -3   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  10  21  -3   9 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  13  20   2   7 /  30  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDLH 310311 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
911 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK WAVE IN NW FLOW CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE MN ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING..WITH WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT
SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THUS FAR..THE
GREATEST AMOUNTS WE HAVE RECEIVED INCLUDE AROUND 2 INCHES IN THE
LUTSEN AREA SINCE 5 PM..AND JUST UNDER AN INCH IN THE INTERNATIONAL
FALLS AREA FROM EARLIER /ALTHO THE SIGNIFICANT SNOW HAS ENDED
THERE AS OF 9 PM/.

THE GOING FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK THIS EVENING..ALTHO WE DID
MAKE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS
IN TEMPS/WINDS/SKY COVER/ETC. LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE AT 925 MB
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT..AND WITH EXPANSIVE CLOUD
COVER..TEMPS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING ARCTIC FRONT WILL LIKELY NOT
FALL TOO MUCH FARTHER FROM WHERE THEY ARE NOW..AND MAY EVEN RISE A
FEW DEGREES. THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE OVER THE SW CWA IN CLOSER
PROXIMITY TO THE WARMEST SFC-925 MB TEMPS.

WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC COLD FRONT IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM FARGO TO LAKE OF THE WOODS..AND
WILL STEADILY PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH SAT MORNING. TEMPS SHOULD BE
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING IN MANY AREAS /ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH/ ALONG WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
COMBINATION OF WINDS/COLD TEMPS LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
WARRANT WIND CHILL HEADLINES SAT NIGHT/SUN MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE DULUTH CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS ARE THE CLIPPER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE CLIPPER IS NOT VERY
STRONG...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF
SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING.  FLURRIES
ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE BEGINNING OF THE WAVE AS WE ARE HAVING
TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN BEFORE IT CAN SNOW...AND WE MAY SEE
SOME FLURRIES AS THE SATURATION PROCESS IS ONGOING.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.  WE WILL HAVE SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND LINGERING WELL INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AT 850MB SHOULD KICK OFF SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING SNOWS AS WELL.  DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND MAYBE 20S BELOW
IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO THE SOUTH SHORE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS VERY COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST COLD...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO AND POSSIBLY COLDER. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A COLDER END TO THE
EXTENDED AND THEN POSSIBLY A WARM UP AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THE FIRST 12
HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD..BUT LIGHT SNOW HAS MOSTLY ENDED AT
KINL..AND REMAINING PRECIP IS LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE DULUTH TAF SITES. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z..BUT CHANCES OF ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILING
OR VISIBILITY REDUCTION ARE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW. LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL ONSET LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ON
SATURDAY..ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES..AND
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  12  16  -7   6 /  10  10  10  10
INL   1   5 -22  -3 /  60   0   0   0
BRD  15  19  -3   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  10  21  -3   9 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  13  20   2   7 /  30  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310037 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS ARE THE CLIPPER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE CLIPPER IS NOT VERY
STRONG...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF
SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING.  FLURRIES
ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE BEGINNING OF THE WAVE AS WE ARE HAVING
TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN BEFORE IT CAN SNOW...AND WE MAY SEE
SOME FLURRIES AS THE SATURATION PROCESS IS ONGOING.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.  WE WILL HAVE SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND LINGERING WELL INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AT 850MB SHOULD KICK OFF SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING SNOWS AS WELL.  DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND MAYBE 20S BELOW
IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO THE SOUTH SHORE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS VERY COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST COLD...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO AND POSSIBLY COLDER. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A COLDER END TO THE
EXTENDED AND THEN POSSIBLY A WARM UP AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THE FIRST 12
HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD..BUT LIGHT SNOW HAS MOSTLY ENDED AT
KINL..AND REMAINING PRECIP IS LIKELY TO STAY TO THE NORTHEAST OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE DULUTH TAF SITES. WE CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE
OUT A FEW BRIEF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR
THROUGH ABOUT 04Z..BUT CHANCES OF ANY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILING
OR VISIBILITY REDUCTION ARE EXCEPTIONALLY LOW. LOW LEVEL COLD
ADVECTION WILL ONSET LATE TONIGHT AS THE NEXT ARCTIC HIGH BUILDS
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN GUSTY NW WINDS ON
SATURDAY..ALONG WITH SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES..AND
OCCASIONAL MVFR CEILINGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  18  -8   5 /  20  10  10  10
INL   3   7 -22  -2 /  40   0  10   0
BRD  15  21  -4   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  11  23  -7  10 /  20  10  10  10
ASX  13  21  -2   7 /  20  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDLH 302145
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
345 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS ARE THE CLIPPER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE CLIPPER IS NOT VERY
STRONG...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF
SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING.  FLURRIES
ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE BEGINNING OF THE WAVE AS WE ARE HAVING
TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN BEFORE IT CAN SNOW...AND WE MAY SEE
SOME FLURRIES AS THE SATURATION PROCESS IS ONGOING.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.  WE WILL HAVE SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND LINGERING WELL INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AT 850MB SHOULD KICK OFF SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING SNOWS AS WELL.  DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND MAYBE 20S BELOW
IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO THE SOUTH SHORE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS VERY COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST COLD...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO AND POSSIBLY COLDER. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A COLDER END TO THE
EXTENDED AND THEN POSSIBLY A WARM UP AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF MVFR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS
THE DAY WEARS ON AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL EVEN BE
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER
IN THE NIGHT OR ON SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE
INTO THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  18  -8   5 /  20  10  10  10
INL   3   7 -22  -2 /  40   0  10   0
BRD  15  21  -4   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  11  23  -7  10 /  20  10  10  10
ASX  13  21  -2   7 /  20  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP









000
FXUS63 KDLH 302145
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
345 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

MAIN CONCERNS NEXT 24 HOURS ARE THE CLIPPER THAT IS MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA TONIGHT...AND SOME LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE CLIPPER.  THE SHORTWAVE WITH THE CLIPPER IS NOT VERY
STRONG...SO AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A SHORT PERIOD OF
SNOW THIS EVENING AS THE WAVE MOVES ACROSS THIS EVENING.  FLURRIES
ARE LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE BEGINNING OF THE WAVE AS WE ARE HAVING
TO SATURATE FROM THE TOP DOWN BEFORE IT CAN SNOW...AND WE MAY SEE
SOME FLURRIES AS THE SATURATION PROCESS IS ONGOING.  THE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE
SHORTWAVE...BUT SHOULD ALSO BE ACCOMPANIED BY SOME LIGHT SNOW IN THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SATURDAY.  WE WILL HAVE SOME WARM
TEMPERATURES AND A NON DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND LINGERING WELL INTO
THE EVENING WITH THE WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING UNTIL THE LATE NIGHT
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.   BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WINDS TURNING
NORTHWEST AND COLDER TEMPERATURES AT 850MB SHOULD KICK OFF SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOWS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...MAINLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...
THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME MORNING SNOWS AS WELL.  DO NOT EXPECT
MORE THAN LIGHT SNOW WITH A LIGHT DUSTING OF ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 344 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL SPREAD
CLOUDS ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO THE NORTH...AND LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AND MAYBE 20S BELOW
IN THE NORTH SATURDAY NIGHT...AND AROUND ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WITH
WINDS BECOMING NORTHEAST...WE COULD SEE SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS
FROM THE HEAD OF THE LAKES INTO THE SOUTH SHORE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED
CHANCE POPS FOR THOSE COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD
ON SUNDAY...WITH NEAR ZERO IN THE NORTH AND AROUND 10 ABOVE IN THE
SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A DRY PERIOD FROM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
FOR THE MOST PART. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL THEN SPREAD LIGHT SNOW ACROSS
THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY...AS VERY COLD AIR SETTLES BACK INTO THE REGION. WEDNESDAY
NIGHT SHOULD BE THE MOST COLD...WITH TEMPS WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO AND POSSIBLY COLDER. OVERALL IT LOOKS LIKE A COLDER END TO THE
EXTENDED AND THEN POSSIBLY A WARM UP AFTER THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF MVFR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS
THE DAY WEARS ON AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL EVEN BE
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER
IN THE NIGHT OR ON SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE
INTO THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  18  -8   5 /  20  10  10  10
INL   3   7 -22  -2 /  40   0  10   0
BRD  15  21  -4   8 /  10   0  10  10
HYR  11  23  -7  10 /  20  10  10  10
ASX  13  21  -2   7 /  20  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 301814
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1214 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVER THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 09Z. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WERE FOUND TO BE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ATTM. A POCKET
OF LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING SNOW INTO THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NMM SEEMS TO
HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE SNOW IN MANITOBA BETTER THAN THE REST AND HAVE
POPS STARTING AT 15Z. KEPT THE MENTION OF POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH GOOD MOISTURE
LACKING...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...THE SFC LOW OF THE CLIPPER REACHES NW MINNESOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD...BUT MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NEAREST BEST FORCING FROM PASSING
ELONGATED VORT MAX REACHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS WILL BE
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
WORKED INTO THE SYSTEM WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

THE SFC LOW CENTER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT
REACHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND DEPARTS BY 12Z.
BEST FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED BEFORE 06Z AND UP TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE.

ON SATURDAY...NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
OVER THE GOGEBIC RANGE AS FLOW TURNS FROM NW TO N BY 18Z AND NNE BY
00Z SUNDAY. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER IN
THE AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED POPS...BUT ALSO MOVED THEM A BIT
FURTHER WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL BE COLDER THAN MUCH OF LATE JANUARY
WAS DUE TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURES MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE
SECOND WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE THERE WILL BE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS WHICH WILL
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THOUGH NO BIG SNOW
MAKERS ON THE HORIZON.

SAT NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE IN PAST
FORECASTS HAD SOME CONCERN ABOUT LAKE ICE LIMITING POTENTIAL
FETCH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT/THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SAT NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FOR LOWS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH WERE COLDER THAN THE RAW MODEL
TEMPS...WITH LOWS APPROACHING 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

SUNDAY...COLD. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS
AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. SHIFTING WINDS WILL CAUSE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT RESULTING IN A SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR
ZERO...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT AS COLD BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD. CLEAR SKIES. LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS DUE A LARGE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER THE PLACE. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS NEAR TO JUST
BELOW ZERO.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STRONG /NEAR 1040 MB/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF MVFR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS
THE DAY WEARS ON AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL EVEN BE
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER
IN THE NIGHT OR ON SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  18  -8   5 /  10  10  10  10
INL   3   7 -22  -2 /  30   0  10   0
BRD  15  21  -4   8 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  11  23  -7  10 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  13  21  -2   7 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301814
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1214 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVER THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 09Z. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WERE FOUND TO BE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ATTM. A POCKET
OF LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING SNOW INTO THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NMM SEEMS TO
HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE SNOW IN MANITOBA BETTER THAN THE REST AND HAVE
POPS STARTING AT 15Z. KEPT THE MENTION OF POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH GOOD MOISTURE
LACKING...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...THE SFC LOW OF THE CLIPPER REACHES NW MINNESOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD...BUT MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NEAREST BEST FORCING FROM PASSING
ELONGATED VORT MAX REACHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS WILL BE
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
WORKED INTO THE SYSTEM WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

THE SFC LOW CENTER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT
REACHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND DEPARTS BY 12Z.
BEST FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED BEFORE 06Z AND UP TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE.

ON SATURDAY...NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
OVER THE GOGEBIC RANGE AS FLOW TURNS FROM NW TO N BY 18Z AND NNE BY
00Z SUNDAY. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER IN
THE AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED POPS...BUT ALSO MOVED THEM A BIT
FURTHER WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL BE COLDER THAN MUCH OF LATE JANUARY
WAS DUE TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURES MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE
SECOND WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE THERE WILL BE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS WHICH WILL
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THOUGH NO BIG SNOW
MAKERS ON THE HORIZON.

SAT NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE IN PAST
FORECASTS HAD SOME CONCERN ABOUT LAKE ICE LIMITING POTENTIAL
FETCH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT/THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SAT NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FOR LOWS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH WERE COLDER THAN THE RAW MODEL
TEMPS...WITH LOWS APPROACHING 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

SUNDAY...COLD. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS
AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. SHIFTING WINDS WILL CAUSE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT RESULTING IN A SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR
ZERO...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT AS COLD BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD. CLEAR SKIES. LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS DUE A LARGE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER THE PLACE. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS NEAR TO JUST
BELOW ZERO.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STRONG /NEAR 1040 MB/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1209 PM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. WE SHOULD SEE AREAS OF MVFR BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS
THE DAY WEARS ON AND INTO THE EVENING. THERE WILL EVEN BE
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT LATER
IN THE NIGHT OR ON SATURDAY MORNING AS DRIER NORTHWEST WINDS MOVE
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  18  -8   5 /  10  10  10  10
INL   3   7 -22  -2 /  30   0  10   0
BRD  15  21  -4   8 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  11  23  -7  10 /  10  10  10  10
ASX  13  21  -2   7 /  10  30  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 301111
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
511 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVER THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 09Z. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WERE FOUND TO BE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ATTM. A POCKET
OF LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING SNOW INTO THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NMM SEEMS TO
HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE SNOW IN MANITOBA BETTER THAN THE REST AND HAVE
POPS STARTING AT 15Z. KEPT THE MENTION OF POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH GOOD MOISTURE
LACKING...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...THE SFC LOW OF THE CLIPPER REACHES NW MINNESOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD...BUT MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NEAREST BEST FORCING FROM PASSING
ELONGATED VORT MAX REACHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS WILL BE
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
WORKED INTO THE SYSTEM WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

THE SFC LOW CENTER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT
REACHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND DEPARTS BY 12Z.
BEST FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED BEFORE 06Z AND UP TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE.

ON SATURDAY...NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
OVER THE GOGEBIC RANGE AS FLOW TURNS FROM NW TO N BY 18Z AND NNE BY
00Z SUNDAY. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER IN
THE AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED POPS...BUT ALSO MOVED THEM A BIT
FURTHER WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL BE COLDER THAN MUCH OF LATE JANUARY
WAS DUE TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURES MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE
SECOND WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE THERE WILL BE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS WHICH WILL
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THOUGH NO BIG SNOW
MAKERS ON THE HORIZON.

SAT NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE IN PAST
FORECASTS HAD SOME CONCERN ABOUT LAKE ICE LIMITING POTENTIAL
FETCH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT/THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SAT NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FOR LOWS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH WERE COLDER THAN THE RAW MODEL
TEMPS...WITH LOWS APPROACHING 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

SUNDAY...COLD. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS
AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. SHIFTING WINDS WILL CAUSE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT RESULTING IN A SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR
ZERO...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT AS COLD BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD. CLEAR SKIES. LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS DUE A LARGE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER THE PLACE. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS NEAR TO JUST
BELOW ZERO.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STRONG /NEAR 1040 MB/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME HIGH TO MID-LEVEL VFR CLOUDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...THEN CEILINGS DECREASING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE TOWARDS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE OR LESS AT INL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SOME SITES DETERIORATING
TO IFR CEILINGS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  13  18  -8 /  10  10  10  10
INL  17   3   7 -22 /  40  30   0  10
BRD  23  15  21  -4 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  19  12  23  -7 /   0  10  10  10
ASX  19  14  21  -2 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301111
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
511 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVER THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 09Z. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WERE FOUND TO BE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ATTM. A POCKET
OF LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING SNOW INTO THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NMM SEEMS TO
HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE SNOW IN MANITOBA BETTER THAN THE REST AND HAVE
POPS STARTING AT 15Z. KEPT THE MENTION OF POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH GOOD MOISTURE
LACKING...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...THE SFC LOW OF THE CLIPPER REACHES NW MINNESOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD...BUT MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NEAREST BEST FORCING FROM PASSING
ELONGATED VORT MAX REACHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS WILL BE
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
WORKED INTO THE SYSTEM WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

THE SFC LOW CENTER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT
REACHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND DEPARTS BY 12Z.
BEST FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED BEFORE 06Z AND UP TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE.

ON SATURDAY...NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
OVER THE GOGEBIC RANGE AS FLOW TURNS FROM NW TO N BY 18Z AND NNE BY
00Z SUNDAY. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER IN
THE AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED POPS...BUT ALSO MOVED THEM A BIT
FURTHER WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL BE COLDER THAN MUCH OF LATE JANUARY
WAS DUE TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURES MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE
SECOND WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE THERE WILL BE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS WHICH WILL
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THOUGH NO BIG SNOW
MAKERS ON THE HORIZON.

SAT NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE IN PAST
FORECASTS HAD SOME CONCERN ABOUT LAKE ICE LIMITING POTENTIAL
FETCH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT/THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SAT NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FOR LOWS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH WERE COLDER THAN THE RAW MODEL
TEMPS...WITH LOWS APPROACHING 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

SUNDAY...COLD. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS
AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. SHIFTING WINDS WILL CAUSE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT RESULTING IN A SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR
ZERO...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT AS COLD BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD. CLEAR SKIES. LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS DUE A LARGE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER THE PLACE. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS NEAR TO JUST
BELOW ZERO.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STRONG /NEAR 1040 MB/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH SOME HIGH TO MID-LEVEL VFR CLOUDS THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...THEN CEILINGS DECREASING TO MVFR LEVELS THIS
EVENING. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AT MOST SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING...WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO MVFR LEVELS. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL BE TOWARDS
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD REDUCE
VISIBILITY TO ONE MILE OR LESS AT INL LATE THIS AFTERNOON. CEILINGS
WILL REMAIN MVFR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SOME SITES DETERIORATING
TO IFR CEILINGS EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
PERIOD...OUT OF THE SOUTH THIS MORNING TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  13  18  -8 /  10  10  10  10
INL  17   3   7 -22 /  40  30   0  10
BRD  23  15  21  -4 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  19  12  23  -7 /   0  10  10  10
ASX  19  14  21  -2 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 300921
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

SFC HIGH PRESSURE COVER THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 09Z. PLENTY OF
CLOUDS WERE FOUND TO BE UNDERCUTTING THE HIGH IN WARM AIR ADVECTION
AHEAD OF A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO AFFECT THE AREA
TODAY AND TONIGHT. A NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WAS PRODUCING LAKE
ENHANCED CLOUD COVER...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES ATTM. A POCKET
OF LIGHT SNOW WAS MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AHEAD OF THE
CLIPPER. MOST OF THE MODELS HOLD OFF ON BRINGING SNOW INTO THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE 18Z. HOWEVER...THE NMM SEEMS TO
HAVE LATCHED ONTO THE SNOW IN MANITOBA BETTER THAN THE REST AND HAVE
POPS STARTING AT 15Z. KEPT THE MENTION OF POPS TO THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING. WITH GOOD MOISTURE
LACKING...SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT. AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES...THE SFC LOW OF THE CLIPPER REACHES NW MINNESOTA BY 00Z
SATURDAY. EXPECT THE LIGHT SNOW TO SPREAD EASTWARD...BUT MAINLY OVER
THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA NEAREST BEST FORCING FROM PASSING
ELONGATED VORT MAX REACHING INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AMOUNTS WILL BE
A LITTLE BIT HIGHER ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER AS BETTER MOISTURE IS
WORKED INTO THE SYSTEM WHERE UP TO AN INCH IS POSSIBLE.

THE SFC LOW CENTER CONTINUES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT
REACHING NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z SATURDAY. THE LIGHT SNOW WILL
CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. VORT MAX STRENGTHENS BEHIND THE SFC LOW AND DEPARTS BY 12Z.
BEST FORCING WILL BE MAXIMIZED BEFORE 06Z AND UP TO AN INCH IS
POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD WHERE MORE MOISTURE IS
AVAILABLE.

ON SATURDAY...NW FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE GOGEBIC RANGE. MEANWHILE...HIGH
PRESSURE DROPS OVER THE REST OF THE AREA. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT
OVER THE GOGEBIC RANGE AS FLOW TURNS FROM NW TO N BY 18Z AND NNE BY
00Z SUNDAY. WITH SOME LOW LEVEL DRYING IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER IN
THE AFTERNOON...HAVE LOWERED POPS...BUT ALSO MOVED THEM A BIT
FURTHER WEST.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

THE FIRST WEEK OF FEBRUARY WILL BE COLDER THAN MUCH OF LATE JANUARY
WAS DUE TO ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURES MOVING DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. TWO AREAS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION...THE FIRST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE
SECOND WED NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE THERE WILL BE A FEW DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS WHICH WILL
BRING SOME CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...THOUGH NO BIG SNOW
MAKERS ON THE HORIZON.

SAT NIGHT...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. WHILE IN PAST
FORECASTS HAD SOME CONCERN ABOUT LAKE ICE LIMITING POTENTIAL
FETCH...LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT/THIS MORNING HAS INCREASED
CONFIDENCE IN SAT NIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. ELSEWHERE...CLEARING SKIES
WITH LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. FOR LOWS LEANED MORE TOWARDS THE
STATISTICAL GUIDANCE WHICH WERE COLDER THAN THE RAW MODEL
TEMPS...WITH LOWS APPROACHING 20 TO 25 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

SUNDAY...COLD. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WEAKENS
AS IT DRIFTS EASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST. SHIFTING WINDS WILL CAUSE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TO DISSIPATE BY THE AFTERNOON...AND CLOUDS
WILL CLEAR OUT RESULTING IN A SUNNY AFTERNOON. HIGHS NEAR
ZERO...WHICH IS ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUNDAY NIGHT...NOT AS COLD BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS EASTWARD. CLEAR SKIES. LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

MONDAY/TUESDAY...A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY. LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP CHANCES/AMOUNTS DUE A LARGE SPREAD IN
GUIDANCE...WITH GEFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ALL OVER THE PLACE. TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS NEAR TO JUST
BELOW ZERO.

WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ANOTHER ARCTIC HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH AS ALL AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE DEPICTS A STRONG /NEAR 1040 MB/ HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
EASTERN DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AROUND THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHS IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...LOWS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...BUT THERE WILL
BE AN OCNL CIG BLO BKN030 AT KDLH AND KHYR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFT 18Z AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  17  13  18  -8 /  10  10  10  10
INL  17   3   7 -22 /  40  30   0  10
BRD  23  15  21  -4 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  19  12  23  -7 /   0  10  10  10
ASX  19  14  21  -2 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...CLC





000
FXUS63 KDLH 300539 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1139 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THIS
EVENING.

STILL PLENTY OF LIFT WITH STRONG 500 MB TROF AND VORT
MAX TO PROVIDE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN
WI THIS EVENING. TWO HARBORS HAS BEEN DOWN TO 2 MILES IN OCNL SNOW
SHOWERS. HAD REPORT OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GILE WI AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMONN THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...BUT THERE WILL
BE AN OCNL CIG BLO BKN030 AT KDLH AND KHYR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFT 18Z AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /  10  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /  20  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 300539 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1139 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THIS
EVENING.

STILL PLENTY OF LIFT WITH STRONG 500 MB TROF AND VORT
MAX TO PROVIDE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN
WI THIS EVENING. TWO HARBORS HAS BEEN DOWN TO 2 MILES IN OCNL SNOW
SHOWERS. HAD REPORT OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GILE WI AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMONN THROUGH ABOUT 18Z...BUT THERE WILL
BE AN OCNL CIG BLO BKN030 AT KDLH AND KHYR EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
MORE CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR CIGS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFT 18Z AND CONTINUE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /  10  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /  20  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300223 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
823 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THIS
EVENING.

STILL PLENTY OF LIFT WITH STRONG 500 MB TROF AND VORT
MAX TO PROVIDE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN
WI THIS EVENING. TWO HARBORS HAS BEEN DOWN TO 2 MILES IN OCNL SNOW
SHOWERS. HAD REPORT OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GILE WI AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THROUGH 03Z. AFT THAT SKIES SHOULD BE VFR.

MORE CLOUDS AOB OVC030 AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD NRN MN AFT
18Z FRIDAY. CIGS MAY GO BLO 3SM IN THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KHIB AND
KINL TAF AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /  10  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /  20  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300223 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
823 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 818 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

UPDATED TO CONTINUE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THIS
EVENING.

STILL PLENTY OF LIFT WITH STRONG 500 MB TROF AND VORT
MAX TO PROVIDE CONTINUED SNOW SHOWERS OVR THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN
WI THIS EVENING. TWO HARBORS HAS BEEN DOWN TO 2 MILES IN OCNL SNOW
SHOWERS. HAD REPORT OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE GILE WI AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THROUGH 03Z. AFT THAT SKIES SHOULD BE VFR.

MORE CLOUDS AOB OVC030 AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD NRN MN AFT
18Z FRIDAY. CIGS MAY GO BLO 3SM IN THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KHIB AND
KINL TAF AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /  10  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /  20  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  30  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 292336 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
536 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THROUGH 03Z. AFT THAT SKIES SHOULD BE VFR.

MORE CLOUDS AOB OVC030 AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD NRN MN AFT
18Z FRIDAY. CIGS MAY GO BLO 3SM IN THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KHIB AND
KINL TAF AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /   0  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /   0  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 292336 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
536 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 534 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CLOUDS AND A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND NRN WI THROUGH 03Z. AFT THAT SKIES SHOULD BE VFR.

MORE CLOUDS AOB OVC030 AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD NRN MN AFT
18Z FRIDAY. CIGS MAY GO BLO 3SM IN THE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE KHIB AND
KINL TAF AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /   0  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /   0  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 292152
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
352 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WERE FOUND LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE MINNESOTA SITES...AND MOVING INTO HYR LATER TODAY. VSBYS
AT HIB SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MARGINALLY DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SNOW DIMINISHES. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS THE DRIER AIR REPLACES THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BY
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE CLEARING AND DRY AIR MAY BE
OVERDONE...AND MVFR BKN CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STILL...CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVING CIGS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AS
A PREVAILING CONDITION. WINDS WILL BACK WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE.
MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE
MORNING BRINGING HIGH BKN AND OVC CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON /BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD/.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /   0  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /   0  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK








000
FXUS63 KDLH 292152
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
352 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WERE FOUND LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE MINNESOTA SITES...AND MOVING INTO HYR LATER TODAY. VSBYS
AT HIB SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MARGINALLY DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SNOW DIMINISHES. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS THE DRIER AIR REPLACES THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BY
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE CLEARING AND DRY AIR MAY BE
OVERDONE...AND MVFR BKN CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STILL...CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVING CIGS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AS
A PREVAILING CONDITION. WINDS WILL BACK WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE.
MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE
MORNING BRINGING HIGH BKN AND OVC CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON /BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD/.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /   0  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /   0  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK







000
FXUS63 KDLH 292152
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
352 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

AT 350 PM...SKIES WERE CLEARING NICELY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
TEMPERATURES HAD GENERALLY FALLEN THROUGH THE DAY FOR MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH TEMPS RANGING FROM NEAR 10 ABOVE AT KINL TO THE MIDDLE
20S IN NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE MOST PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WAS
IN NW WI...WITH SOME LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND EC MN. WINDS WERE GUSTING INTO THE 20S IN
SPOTS...BUT THE GENERAL TREND HAS BEEN TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY.

FOR TONIGHT...THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ACROSS THE CWA.
THERE WERE SOME LINGERING FLURRIES ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMAINING
CLOUD COVER...AND SOME SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE SOUTH SHORE. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP WELL BELOW ZERO FOR MOST
OF THE REGION...AND HAVE BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST
BASED ON THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND THE EXPECTED DECREASING WIND.
TEMPS SHOULD DROP WELL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO IN THE NORTH AND
MAINLY SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL DROP AND
IT LOOKS LIKE WIND CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN JUST OUTSIDE OF WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT IT WILL BE CLOSE IN A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS.

ON FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE SOME SUNSHINE TO START THE DAY...BUT
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE QUICKLY AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF A
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. STRONG WAA WILL BRING TEMPS
BACK INTO THE TEENS IN THE NORTHEAST AND 20S FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
INTO THE SHIELD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER
WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE BORDERLAND AND LAKE
SUPERIOR. A QUICK 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WINDS VEER NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AND ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
IS POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING.

A BROAD AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLIPPER
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO WARM
MUCH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY RESULTING IN AFTERNOON HIGHS ONLY A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE THE MORNING MINS. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 5 TO 10 MPH ARE
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY NIGHT...AND IN COMBINATION WITH THE COLDER
AIR...WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO RANGE. SATURDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 TO 25
BELOW ZERO. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COLD ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AS THE HIGH BECOMES BETTER ESTABLISHED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM 5 BELOW ZERO NORTH...TO THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS SOUTHEAST. DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35 BELOW
ZERO ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ONCE
AGAIN RANGE FROM 5 TO 25 BELOW ZERO.

ANOTHER UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW BEGINS
TO DEVELOP RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES. THE LOW ITSELF
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON
TUESDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER ARCTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD BEHIND TUESDAYS SYSTEM RESULTING IN
A TREND TOWARD COLDER TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WERE FOUND LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE MINNESOTA SITES...AND MOVING INTO HYR LATER TODAY. VSBYS
AT HIB SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MARGINALLY DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SNOW DIMINISHES. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS THE DRIER AIR REPLACES THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BY
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE CLEARING AND DRY AIR MAY BE
OVERDONE...AND MVFR BKN CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STILL...CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVING CIGS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AS
A PREVAILING CONDITION. WINDS WILL BACK WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE.
MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE
MORNING BRINGING HIGH BKN AND OVC CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON /BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD/.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -5  16  10  14 /   0  20  20  10
INL -14  16  -1   3 /   0  70  50  10
BRD   1  21  14  17 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  -8  17   9  19 /   0  10  10  10
ASX   0  16  12  18 /  20  20  30  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK







000
FXUS63 KDLH 291751 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1151 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 604 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
AND HAVE REMOVED. THE ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN LET GO. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WERE FOUND LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
THE AREA. LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE MINNESOTA SITES...AND MOVING INTO HYR LATER TODAY. VSBYS
AT HIB SHOULD IMPROVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS MARGINALLY DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE REGION AND SNOW DIMINISHES. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO VFR
CONDITIONS AS THE DRIER AIR REPLACES THE SHALLOW CLOUD LAYER BY
EARLY EVENING. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THE CLEARING AND DRY AIR MAY BE
OVERDONE...AND MVFR BKN CIGS COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
STILL...CONFIDENCE IN IMPROVING CIGS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AS
A PREVAILING CONDITION. WINDS WILL BACK WEST OR SOUTHWESTERLY ON
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER WEAK UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE.
MOISTURE WITH THE APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW LATER IN THE
MORNING BRINGING HIGH BKN AND OVC CONDITIONS...WHICH WILL LOWER
DURING THE AFTERNOON /BEYOND THIS TAF PERIOD/.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  -6  16   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  20 -15  16  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  26  -1  21   9 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  30  -9  17   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  30  -1  16  10 /  20  20   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK







000
FXUS63 KDLH 291205
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
605 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
AND HAVE REMOVED. THE ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN LET GO. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT AREA TAF SITES
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS ARE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS WEAK BANDS EVIDENT
ON KDLH RADAR THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP TO 30KTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THESE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS IMPROVEMENT
TONIGHT...BUT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SOME
CLEARING MAY OCCUR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  20   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 291205
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
605 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 604 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

THE FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE HAS ENDED OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
AND HAVE REMOVED. THE ADVISORY HAS ALSO BEEN LET GO. MADE SOME
MINOR TWEAKS TO LAKE EFFECT SNOW POTENTIAL ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT AREA TAF SITES
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS ARE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS WEAK BANDS EVIDENT
ON KDLH RADAR THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP TO 30KTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THESE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS IMPROVEMENT
TONIGHT...BUT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SOME
CLEARING MAY OCCUR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  20   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 291110
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
510 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT AREA TAF SITES
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS ARE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS WEAK BANDS EVIDENT
ON KDLH RADAR THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP TO 30KTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THESE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS IMPROVEMENT
TONIGHT...BUT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SOME
CLEARING MAY OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 291110
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
510 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 510 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY AT AREA TAF SITES
WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. CEILINGS ARE ON THE EDGE BETWEEN IFR AND
MVFR THIS MORNING...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.
LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH NUMEROUS WEAK BANDS EVIDENT
ON KDLH RADAR THIS MORNING. WINDS ARE ALREADY GUSTING UP TO 30KTS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THESE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
PASSING COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEPICTS IMPROVEMENT
TONIGHT...BUT SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE INDICATES ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL PERSIST UNTIL EARLY TOMORROW MORNING WHEN SOME
CLEARING MAY OCCUR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 290928 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
328 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND
SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL FALL AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...BJT










000
FXUS63 KDLH 290928 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
328 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND
SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL FALL AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...BJT









000
FXUS63 KDLH 290927
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND
SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL FALL AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...BJT








000
FXUS63 KDLH 290927
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA AS OF 08Z. GUSTY
NW WINDS WERE FOUND ON BOTH SIDES OF THE FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BEHIND THE FRONT. SOME FOG AND LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE WAS
OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. EXPECT THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE TO COME TO AN END BEFORE 10Z AND THE FOG TO
DISSIPATE. HAVE ADJUSTED HEADLINES TO MATCH UP WITH CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS AND WILL LET THE EXPIRATION TIME REMAIN 12Z.

WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...WILL SEE THE GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE NW WIND AND THE COLD AIR
DRIFTING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PRODUCE SOME LAKE ENHANCED SNOW
SHOWERS BY MID MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING FOR TRUE
LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.
ELSEWHERE...WITH THE DRY AIR FROM THE HIGH BUILDING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...A QUIET WEATHER DAY IS IN STORE.

THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THE NW WIND
CONTINUES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND WITH THE DEEPER COLD AIR...THE
OPPORTUNITY FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IMPROVES. IT APPEARS THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE FROM 03Z TO 09Z FRIDAY WHEN COLDEST AIR IS
IN PLACE. AFTER 09Z...SOME LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS AND
DRIER AIR FROM THE HIGH BEGINS TO SHUT DOWN THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW
SHOWERS. WILL SEE ABOUT ONE INCH OF ACCUMULATION OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF IRON COUNTY.

ON FRIDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS ALLOWS A
WARM AIR ADVECTION PATTERN TO SET UP OVER THE AREA. A MID LEVEL TROF
MOVES ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AS A VORT MAX APPROACHES NW MN
BY 00Z SATURDAY. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE AMOUNT OF QPF AND THE
OVERALL COVERAGE AS WELL. USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN
SOME POPS OVER NORTHERN KOOCHICHING AND NORTHWEST ST. LOUIS COUNTIES
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU JAN 29 2015

COLDER AIR ON THE WAY THIS WEEKEND WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS PERSISTING INTO NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL BE
BEST ON FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

DID NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM FORECAST.
SNOWFALL FOR THE FRIDAY NIGHT CLIPPER SYSTEM STILL LOOK TO BE A
DUSTING TO AN INCH OR TWO TOPS...WITH THE HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS
ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND ARROWHEAD REGIONS OF
NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD WHERE FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD DEVELOP...BUT THE DOMINATE
PRECIP TYPE WILL BE SNOW. BEYOND THIS THE BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW WILL
BE IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS /LESS THAN AN INCH/ THOUGH THE
WEEKEND. BEYOND THIS...THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL BRUSH SOUTH OF THE REGION TUESDAY MORNING...BUT
OTHERWISE NO BIG CHANCES FOR PRECIP THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY AT LEAST.

FOR TEMPERATURES...CONTINUED THE TREND OF LOWERING TEMPS IN THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK...LEANING TOWARDS THE
USUALLY RELIABLE HPC TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
LOOK ABOUT EQUAL IN TERMS OF LOW TEMPERATURES...REACHING BELOW -20
ALONG INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
REGION. SUNDAY WILL BE THE COLDEST DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR
ZERO...AND ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER LIKELY REMAINING BELOW
ZERO ALL DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND
SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL FALL AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  -3  15   7 /  10   0   0  30
INL  13 -10  15  -1 /  10   0  30  40
BRD  22   3  22   9 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  27  -3  16   9 /  10   0   0  20
ASX  28   2  16  10 /  10  30   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 290522 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1122 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO THE ENTIRE AREA AS MORE WIDESPREAD
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE STARTED TO COME IN AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 350 PM...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
A CHECK ACROSS THE CWA INDICATES ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS QUITE
LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ONLY REPORT BEING IN THE
INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION
OF NW WI...NAMELY...WASHBURN...SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES.
DEFINITELY THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO NEED AN ADVISORY FOR
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CWA IF THE EXPECTED FZDZ BECOMES EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. WILL START WITH THIS AREA AS IT WILL RECEIVE THE MOST
LIFT AND HAS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE SOUNDING PROFILES...BUT KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON IT OVERNIGHT. ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD
SEE LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS THURSDAY. TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON
THURSDAY...AS H85 WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES DEVELOP IN THE STRONG CAA REGIME. COULD SEE SOME
SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF AROUND AN INCH IS LIKELY BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
WELL...WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPOSED
AREAS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH APPROACHING
S/W TROF BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MEAGER MOISTURE
WITH WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD YIELD A BROAD SWATH OF A DUSTING
UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BEYOND SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES PASSING ACROSS
THE AREA. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW...WITH THE GREATER
THREAT OF SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO TO MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35
BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND
SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL FALL AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  25  -3  16 /  40  10   0  10
INL  13  15 -11  15 /  30  10   0  10
BRD  20  22   4  22 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  27  28  -3  18 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  28  29   2  17 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...BJT








000
FXUS63 KDLH 290522 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1122 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 810 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO THE ENTIRE AREA AS MORE WIDESPREAD
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE STARTED TO COME IN AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 350 PM...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
A CHECK ACROSS THE CWA INDICATES ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS QUITE
LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ONLY REPORT BEING IN THE
INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION
OF NW WI...NAMELY...WASHBURN...SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES.
DEFINITELY THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO NEED AN ADVISORY FOR
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CWA IF THE EXPECTED FZDZ BECOMES EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. WILL START WITH THIS AREA AS IT WILL RECEIVE THE MOST
LIFT AND HAS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE SOUNDING PROFILES...BUT KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON IT OVERNIGHT. ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD
SEE LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS THURSDAY. TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON
THURSDAY...AS H85 WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES DEVELOP IN THE STRONG CAA REGIME. COULD SEE SOME
SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF AROUND AN INCH IS LIKELY BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
WELL...WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPOSED
AREAS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH APPROACHING
S/W TROF BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MEAGER MOISTURE
WITH WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD YIELD A BROAD SWATH OF A DUSTING
UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BEYOND SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES PASSING ACROSS
THE AREA. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW...WITH THE GREATER
THREAT OF SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO TO MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35
BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR AND LOW-END MVFR CIGS WITH LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND SNOW
WILL BE THE MAIN STORY TONIGHT WITH A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW AND
SLOWLY LIFTING CEILINGS THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE NW LATE TONIGHT AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL FALL AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING AND
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  25  -3  16 /  40  10   0  10
INL  13  15 -11  15 /  30  10   0  10
BRD  20  22   4  22 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  27  28  -3  18 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  28  29   2  17 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...BJT









000
FXUS63 KDLH 290211 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
811 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO THE ENTIRE AREA AS MORE WIDESPREAD
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE STARTED TO COME IN AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 559 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 350 PM...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
A CHECK ACROSS THE CWA INDICATES ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS QUITE
LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ONLY REPORT BEING IN THE
INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION
OF NW WI...NAMELY...WASHBURN...SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES.
DEFINITELY THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO NEED AN ADVISORY FOR
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CWA IF THE EXPECTED FZDZ BECOMES EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. WILL START WITH THIS AREA AS IT WILL RECEIVE THE MOST
LIFT AND HAS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE SOUNDING PROFILES...BUT KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON IT OVERNIGHT. ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD
SEE LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS THURSDAY. TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON
THURSDAY...AS H85 WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES DEVELOP IN THE STRONG CAA REGIME. COULD SEE SOME
SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF AROUND AN INCH IS LIKELY BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
WELL...WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPOSED
AREAS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH APPROACHING
S/W TROF BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MEAGER MOISTURE
WITH WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD YIELD A BROAD SWATH OF A DUSTING
UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BEYOND SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES PASSING ACROSS
THE AREA. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW...WITH THE GREATER
THREAT OF SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO TO MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35
BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
FLUCTUATIONS UP TO MVFR AND DOWN TO LIFR. VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER
AROUND IFR/MVFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT DUE TO BR AND LIGHT FG...BUT
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW AS THE NW WINDS INCREASE. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
SNOW AT TIMES WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF FZDZ APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
AND INTO PORTIONS OF NW WI. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  25  -3  16 /  40  10   0  10
INL  13  15 -11  15 /  30  10   0  10
BRD  20  22   4  22 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  27  28  -3  18 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  28  29   2  17 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...BJT








000
FXUS63 KDLH 290211 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
811 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 810 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

HAVE EXPANDED THE ADVISORY TO THE ENTIRE AREA AS MORE WIDESPREAD
REPORTS OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAVE STARTED TO COME IN AND CONDITIONS
APPEAR TO BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR FZDZ OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 559 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 350 PM...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
A CHECK ACROSS THE CWA INDICATES ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS QUITE
LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ONLY REPORT BEING IN THE
INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION
OF NW WI...NAMELY...WASHBURN...SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES.
DEFINITELY THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO NEED AN ADVISORY FOR
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CWA IF THE EXPECTED FZDZ BECOMES EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. WILL START WITH THIS AREA AS IT WILL RECEIVE THE MOST
LIFT AND HAS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE SOUNDING PROFILES...BUT KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON IT OVERNIGHT. ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD
SEE LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS THURSDAY. TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON
THURSDAY...AS H85 WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES DEVELOP IN THE STRONG CAA REGIME. COULD SEE SOME
SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF AROUND AN INCH IS LIKELY BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
WELL...WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPOSED
AREAS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH APPROACHING
S/W TROF BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MEAGER MOISTURE
WITH WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD YIELD A BROAD SWATH OF A DUSTING
UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BEYOND SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES PASSING ACROSS
THE AREA. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW...WITH THE GREATER
THREAT OF SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO TO MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35
BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
FLUCTUATIONS UP TO MVFR AND DOWN TO LIFR. VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER
AROUND IFR/MVFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT DUE TO BR AND LIGHT FG...BUT
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW AS THE NW WINDS INCREASE. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
SNOW AT TIMES WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF FZDZ APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
AND INTO PORTIONS OF NW WI. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  25  -3  16 /  40  10   0  10
INL  13  15 -11  15 /  30  10   0  10
BRD  20  22   4  22 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  27  28  -3  18 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  28  29   2  17 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR MNZ010>012-
     018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST THURSDAY FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...BJT









000
FXUS63 KDLH 290000
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
600 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 350 PM...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
A CHECK ACROSS THE CWA INDICATES ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS QUITE
LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ONLY REPORT BEING IN THE
INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION
OF NW WI...NAMELY...WASHBURN...SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES.
DEFINITELY THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO NEED AN ADVISORY FOR
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CWA IF THE EXPECTED FZDZ BECOMES EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. WILL START WITH THIS AREA AS IT WILL RECEIVE THE MOST
LIFT AND HAS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE SOUNDING PROFILES...BUT KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON IT OVERNIGHT. ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD
SEE LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS THURSDAY. TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON
THURSDAY...AS H85 WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES DEVELOP IN THE STRONG CAA REGIME. COULD SEE SOME
SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF AROUND AN INCH IS LIKELY BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
WELL...WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPOSED
AREAS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH APPROACHING
S/W TROF BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MEAGER MOISTURE
WITH WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD YIELD A BROAD SWATH OF A DUSTING
UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BEYOND SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES PASSING ACROSS
THE AREA. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW...WITH THE GREATER
THREAT OF SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO TO MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35
BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
FLUCTUATIONS UP TO MVFR AND DOWN TO LIFR. VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER
AROUND IFR/MVFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT DUE TO BR AND LIGHT FG...BUT
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW AS THE NW WINDS INCREASE. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
SNOW AT TIMES WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF FZDZ APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
AND INTO PORTIONS OF NW WI. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  24  -3  16 /  40  10   0  10
INL  16  16 -11  15 /  30  10   0  10
BRD  22  22   4  22 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  27  28  -3  18 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  27  29   2  17 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ007>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 290000
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
600 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 350 PM...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
A CHECK ACROSS THE CWA INDICATES ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS QUITE
LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ONLY REPORT BEING IN THE
INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION
OF NW WI...NAMELY...WASHBURN...SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES.
DEFINITELY THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO NEED AN ADVISORY FOR
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CWA IF THE EXPECTED FZDZ BECOMES EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. WILL START WITH THIS AREA AS IT WILL RECEIVE THE MOST
LIFT AND HAS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE SOUNDING PROFILES...BUT KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON IT OVERNIGHT. ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD
SEE LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS THURSDAY. TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON
THURSDAY...AS H85 WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES DEVELOP IN THE STRONG CAA REGIME. COULD SEE SOME
SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF AROUND AN INCH IS LIKELY BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
WELL...WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPOSED
AREAS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH APPROACHING
S/W TROF BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MEAGER MOISTURE
WITH WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD YIELD A BROAD SWATH OF A DUSTING
UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BEYOND SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES PASSING ACROSS
THE AREA. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW...WITH THE GREATER
THREAT OF SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO TO MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35
BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL
FLUCTUATIONS UP TO MVFR AND DOWN TO LIFR. VISIBILITIES WILL HOVER
AROUND IFR/MVFR THROUGH LATE TONIGHT DUE TO BR AND LIGHT FG...BUT
CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON DUE TO BLOWING
SNOW AS THE NW WINDS INCREASE. LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE MIXED WITH
SNOW AT TIMES WILL BEGIN THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF FZDZ APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
AND INTO PORTIONS OF NW WI. GUSTY NW WINDS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY...BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  24  -3  16 /  40  10   0  10
INL  16  16 -11  15 /  30  10   0  10
BRD  22  22   4  22 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  27  28  -3  18 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  27  29   2  17 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ007>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...BJT








000
FXUS63 KDLH 282200
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
400 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 350 PM...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
A CHECK ACROSS THE CWA INDICATES ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS QUITE
LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ONLY REPORT BEING IN THE
INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION
OF NW WI...NAMELY...WASHBURN...SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES.
DEFINITELY THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO NEED AN ADVISORY FOR
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CWA IF THE EXPECTED FZDZ BECOMES EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. WILL START WITH THIS AREA AS IT WILL RECEIVE THE MOST
LIFT AND HAS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE SOUNDING PROFILES...BUT KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON IT OVERNIGHT. ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD
SEE LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS THURSDAY. TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON
THURSDAY...AS H85 WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES DEVELOP IN THE STRONG CAA REGIME. COULD SEE SOME
SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF AROUND AN INCH IS LIKELY BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
WELL...WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPOSED
AREAS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH APPROACHING
S/W TROF BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MEAGER MOISTURE
WITH WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD YIELD A BROAD SWATH OF A DUSTING
UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BEYOND SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES PASSING ACROSS
THE AREA. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW...WITH THE GREATER
THREAT OF SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO TO MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35
BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AT ALL TERMINALS. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING
FOG HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO...AND EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO INL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS LOW...BUT
IT SEEMS FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING FOG ARE MORE LIKELY THAN LIGHT
SNOW WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS DEEPER SATURATION EXPANDS ACROSS
REMAINING MN AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON...INTRODUCED A MIX OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW BEFORE 29.00Z. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE AT HAYWARD...WHERE ONSET SHOULD BE DELAYED
UNTIL THIS EVENING.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER OVERNIGHT AND
COLD AIR POURING INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...BUT THE INCREASE IN SPEEDS WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SWITCH PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW AND THE
STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  24  -3  16 /  40  10   0  10
INL  16  16 -11  15 /  30  10   0  10
BRD  22  22   4  22 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  27  28  -3  18 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  27  29   2  17 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ007>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK








000
FXUS63 KDLH 282200
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
400 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

AT 350 PM...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
A CHECK ACROSS THE CWA INDICATES ANY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS QUITE
LOCALIZED AT THIS POINT...WITH THE ONLY REPORT BEING IN THE
INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
REACHING THE FREEZING MARK AT MOST LOCATIONS...WITH TEMPS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING
DRIZZLE AND ALSO THE CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET/FREEZING
RAIN. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR A PORTION
OF NW WI...NAMELY...WASHBURN...SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES.
DEFINITELY THINK THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL TO NEED AN ADVISORY FOR
OTHER PORTIONS OF THE CWA IF THE EXPECTED FZDZ BECOMES EVEN MORE
WIDESPREAD. WILL START WITH THIS AREA AS IT WILL RECEIVE THE MOST
LIFT AND HAS A BIT MORE FAVORABLE SOUNDING PROFILES...BUT KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON IT OVERNIGHT. ROADS COULD BECOME SLICK ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE ADVISORY AREA.

TEMPS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 20S OVERNIGHT...AND WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT LATER TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY...WE SHOULD
SEE LITTLE RISE IN TEMPS THURSDAY. TEMPS MAY EVEN FALL THROUGH THE
DAY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY ON
THURSDAY...AS H85 WINDS INCREASE TO 45 TO 50 KNOTS AND STRONG LOW
LEVEL LAPS RATES DEVELOP IN THE STRONG CAA REGIME. COULD SEE SOME
SURFACE GUSTS TO 25 TO 30 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT
OVER PORTIONS OF ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES. ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL OF AROUND AN INCH IS LIKELY BEFORE SNOW TAPERS OFF AROUND
SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE STRONG EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS
WELL...WHICH MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES IN HIGHER TERRAIN AND EXPOSED
AREAS.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH APPROACHING
S/W TROF BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. MEAGER MOISTURE
WITH WEAK RIDGE TO THE SOUTH SHOULD YIELD A BROAD SWATH OF A DUSTING
UP TO 2 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE DURING THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...BEYOND SATURDAY...WITH SEVERAL WEAK WAVES PASSING ACROSS
THE AREA. OVERALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE LOW...WITH THE GREATER
THREAT OF SNOW TO THE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.

WITH THE RETURN TO ARCTIC AIR ACROSS THE REGION...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TRENDING CLOSER TO BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO LOW 20S WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO TO MIDDLE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO IN THE SOUTHWEST. TEMPS
MODERATE A BIT WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING...THEN TREND COLDER AGAIN FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH COLD TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT AND AGAIN SUNDAY NIGHT...DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OF 25 TO 35
BELOW ZERO ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AT ALL TERMINALS. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING
FOG HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO...AND EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO INL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS LOW...BUT
IT SEEMS FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING FOG ARE MORE LIKELY THAN LIGHT
SNOW WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS DEEPER SATURATION EXPANDS ACROSS
REMAINING MN AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON...INTRODUCED A MIX OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW BEFORE 29.00Z. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE AT HAYWARD...WHERE ONSET SHOULD BE DELAYED
UNTIL THIS EVENING.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER OVERNIGHT AND
COLD AIR POURING INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...BUT THE INCREASE IN SPEEDS WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SWITCH PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW AND THE
STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  24  -3  16 /  40  10   0  10
INL  16  16 -11  15 /  30  10   0  10
BRD  22  22   4  22 /  30  10   0   0
HYR  27  28  -3  18 /  50  20   0   0
ASX  27  29   2  17 /  40  30  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     THURSDAY FOR WIZ007>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...HUYCK







000
FXUS63 KDLH 281758 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1158 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LATE THIS MORNING...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND ANY REPORTS OF LOCAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR OR SNOW AS OF 11 AM. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING
FZDZ FOR ANY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT WILL ADD SOME TO THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING FOR A TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING. SHOULD SEE THE FOG LIFT BY 15Z. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS AT 08Z WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO NW
ONTARIO. IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS
FALLING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR
THE FRONT FROM WINNIPEG TO NEAR DRYDEN. LATEST SHORT TERM HRRR AND
RAP KEEP THIS FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE ARROWHEAD IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY END BY NOON. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SFC LOW MOVES EASTWARD WITH THE LOW CENTER
BEGINS TO REORGANIZE AND DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO REVEL THEMSELVES WITH RESPECT
TO QPF PLACEMENT AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LIMITED QPF AND KEEPS IT NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND KEPT POPS TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE ALL SNOW. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING THE
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND HAVE REMOVED.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND THEIR TIMING ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE SNOW ENDING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL
SNOW AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
SLEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH FOUND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

ON THURSDAY...ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER
AS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AS
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A NW
WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND CAA WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH SHORE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT HOWEVER AS DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
FROM...YOU GUESSED IT...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM THAT WILL
/AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ PUT A STOP TO WHAT HAS BEEN A LONG PERIOD OF
WEAK /AND FRANKLY DISAPPOINTING FOR SNOW LOVERS/ CLIPPERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY MILD PATTERN TO A
COLDER REGIME...ENDING THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR
TO THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SERIES OF STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LATE THIS WEEK AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK CLIPPER ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS WILL DESCEND OVER THE
MIDWEST LEADING TO VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS APPROACHING THE
COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID -20S C /COMPARED TO 00Z
TODAY WHEN THEY WERE IN THE WARMEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMO AT AROUND
0C/.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS. GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH ECMWF PESSIMISTIC ON INTENSITY AND
GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. GEM WAS SLOWER
AND NOT AS INTENSE OVERALL...BUT THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
12Z GEM WHICH WAS FASTER AND MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OR TWO FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA NORTH
OF HIGHWAY TWO. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE
SEVEN DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH 850MB AND GREAT NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE LAKE. ICE COVERAGE ON THE SOUTH SHORE MAY LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...AND OPTED TO LEAVE NORTHERN
BAYFIELD COUNTY OUT OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DUE
TO WHAT WOULD BE A VERY LIMITED FETCH LENGTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AS NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A NEAR-SURFACE DRY
LAYER...SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE LOW LEVELS AND THUS LIMIT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...AND HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS A LITTLE COLDER THAN INITIAL GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE ARCTIC HIGHS THAT WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA IN THE
LONG TERM. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY...THEN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE TEENS
TUESDAY. LOWS NEAR ZERO TO TEN OR MORE BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...MILD FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS...THEN 0 TO
-15 SATURDAY NIGHT AND 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO...AND COLD SPOTS IN THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION NEAR 40 BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AT ALL TERMINALS. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING
FOG HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO...AND EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO INL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS LOW...BUT
IT SEEMS FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING FOG ARE MORE LIKELY THAN LIGHT
SNOW WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS DEEPER SATURATION EXPANDS ACROSS
REMAINING MN AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON...INTRODUCED A MIX OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW BEFORE 29.00Z. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE AT HAYWARD...WHERE ONSET SHOULD BE DELAYED
UNTIL THIS EVENING.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER OVERNIGHT AND
COLD AIR POURING INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...BUT THE INCREASE IN SPEEDS WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SWITCH PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW AND THE
STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  24  24  -1 /  10  50  10   0
INL  31  16  16 -10 /  10  60  10   0
BRD  34  22  22   5 /  10  40   0   0
HYR  32  27  28  -2 /  10  50  20   0
ASX  34  27  29   2 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK








000
FXUS63 KDLH 281758 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1158 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LATE THIS MORNING...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND ANY REPORTS OF LOCAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR OR SNOW AS OF 11 AM. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING
FZDZ FOR ANY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT WILL ADD SOME TO THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING FOR A TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING. SHOULD SEE THE FOG LIFT BY 15Z. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS AT 08Z WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO NW
ONTARIO. IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS
FALLING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR
THE FRONT FROM WINNIPEG TO NEAR DRYDEN. LATEST SHORT TERM HRRR AND
RAP KEEP THIS FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE ARROWHEAD IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY END BY NOON. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SFC LOW MOVES EASTWARD WITH THE LOW CENTER
BEGINS TO REORGANIZE AND DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO REVEL THEMSELVES WITH RESPECT
TO QPF PLACEMENT AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LIMITED QPF AND KEEPS IT NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND KEPT POPS TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE ALL SNOW. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING THE
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND HAVE REMOVED.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND THEIR TIMING ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE SNOW ENDING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL
SNOW AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
SLEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH FOUND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

ON THURSDAY...ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER
AS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AS
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A NW
WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND CAA WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH SHORE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT HOWEVER AS DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
FROM...YOU GUESSED IT...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM THAT WILL
/AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ PUT A STOP TO WHAT HAS BEEN A LONG PERIOD OF
WEAK /AND FRANKLY DISAPPOINTING FOR SNOW LOVERS/ CLIPPERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY MILD PATTERN TO A
COLDER REGIME...ENDING THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR
TO THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SERIES OF STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LATE THIS WEEK AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK CLIPPER ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS WILL DESCEND OVER THE
MIDWEST LEADING TO VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS APPROACHING THE
COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID -20S C /COMPARED TO 00Z
TODAY WHEN THEY WERE IN THE WARMEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMO AT AROUND
0C/.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS. GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH ECMWF PESSIMISTIC ON INTENSITY AND
GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. GEM WAS SLOWER
AND NOT AS INTENSE OVERALL...BUT THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
12Z GEM WHICH WAS FASTER AND MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OR TWO FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA NORTH
OF HIGHWAY TWO. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE
SEVEN DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH 850MB AND GREAT NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE LAKE. ICE COVERAGE ON THE SOUTH SHORE MAY LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...AND OPTED TO LEAVE NORTHERN
BAYFIELD COUNTY OUT OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DUE
TO WHAT WOULD BE A VERY LIMITED FETCH LENGTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AS NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A NEAR-SURFACE DRY
LAYER...SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE LOW LEVELS AND THUS LIMIT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...AND HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS A LITTLE COLDER THAN INITIAL GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE ARCTIC HIGHS THAT WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA IN THE
LONG TERM. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY...THEN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE TEENS
TUESDAY. LOWS NEAR ZERO TO TEN OR MORE BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...MILD FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS...THEN 0 TO
-15 SATURDAY NIGHT AND 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO...AND COLD SPOTS IN THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION NEAR 40 BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1158 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

IFR/LIFR CIGS AND MVFR/IFR VSBYS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA LATE
THIS MORNING...AND THAT TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THIS AFTERNOON
AT ALL TERMINALS. AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING
FOG HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF
NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO...AND EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO INL
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN PRECIPITATION TYPE IS LOW...BUT
IT SEEMS FREEZING DRIZZLE/FREEZING FOG ARE MORE LIKELY THAN LIGHT
SNOW WITH THIS PACKAGE. AS DEEPER SATURATION EXPANDS ACROSS
REMAINING MN AIRPORTS THIS AFTERNOON...INTRODUCED A MIX OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT SNOW BEFORE 29.00Z. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
BE SLOWEST TO ARRIVE AT HAYWARD...WHERE ONSET SHOULD BE DELAYED
UNTIL THIS EVENING.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATER OVERNIGHT AND
COLD AIR POURING INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL VEER
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...BUT THE INCREASE IN SPEEDS WILL BE
DELAYED UNTIL LATE OVERNIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SWITCH PRECIPITATION TO ALL SNOW AND THE
STRONG WINDS WILL RESULT IN MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  24  24  -1 /  10  50  10   0
INL  31  16  16 -10 /  10  60  10   0
BRD  34  22  22   5 /  10  40   0   0
HYR  32  27  28  -2 /  10  50  20   0
ASX  34  27  29   2 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...HUYCK







000
FXUS63 KDLH 281732
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1132 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LATE THIS MORNING...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND ANY REPORTS OF LOCAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR OR SNOW AS OF 11 AM. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING
FZDZ FOR ANY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT WILL ADD SOME TO THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING FOR A TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING. SHOULD SEE THE FOG LIFT BY 15Z. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS AT 08Z WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO NW
ONTARIO. IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS
FALLING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR
THE FRONT FROM WINNIPEG TO NEAR DRYDEN. LATEST SHORT TERM HRRR AND
RAP KEEP THIS FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE ARROWHEAD IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY END BY NOON. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SFC LOW MOVES EASTWARD WITH THE LOW CENTER
BEGINS TO REORGANIZE AND DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO REVEL THEMSELVES WITH RESPECT
TO QPF PLACEMENT AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LIMITED QPF AND KEEPS IT NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND KEPT POPS TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE ALL SNOW. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING THE
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND HAVE REMOVED.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND THEIR TIMING ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE SNOW ENDING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL
SNOW AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
SLEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH FOUND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

ON THURSDAY...ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER
AS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AS
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A NW
WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND CAA WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH SHORE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT HOWEVER AS DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
FROM...YOU GUESSED IT...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM THAT WILL
/AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ PUT A STOP TO WHAT HAS BEEN A LONG PERIOD OF
WEAK /AND FRANKLY DISAPPOINTING FOR SNOW LOVERS/ CLIPPERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY MILD PATTERN TO A
COLDER REGIME...ENDING THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR
TO THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SERIES OF STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LATE THIS WEEK AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK CLIPPER ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS WILL DESCEND OVER THE
MIDWEST LEADING TO VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS APPROACHING THE
COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID -20S C /COMPARED TO 00Z
TODAY WHEN THEY WERE IN THE WARMEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMO AT AROUND
0C/.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS. GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH ECMWF PESSIMISTIC ON INTENSITY AND
GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. GEM WAS SLOWER
AND NOT AS INTENSE OVERALL...BUT THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
12Z GEM WHICH WAS FASTER AND MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OR TWO FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA NORTH
OF HIGHWAY TWO. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE
SEVEN DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH 850MB AND GREAT NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE LAKE. ICE COVERAGE ON THE SOUTH SHORE MAY LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...AND OPTED TO LEAVE NORTHERN
BAYFIELD COUNTY OUT OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DUE
TO WHAT WOULD BE A VERY LIMITED FETCH LENGTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AS NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A NEAR-SURFACE DRY
LAYER...SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE LOW LEVELS AND THUS LIMIT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...AND HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS A LITTLE COLDER THAN INITIAL GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE ARCTIC HIGHS THAT WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA IN THE
LONG TERM. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY...THEN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE TEENS
TUESDAY. LOWS NEAR ZERO TO TEN OR MORE BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...MILD FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS...THEN 0 TO
-15 SATURDAY NIGHT AND 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO...AND COLD SPOTS IN THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION NEAR 40 BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AS OF THIS MORNING
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR INL WERE ALREADY AT IFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INL CEILINGS EXPECTED TO WORSEN LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME SITES POSSIBLY
DETERIORATING TO LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WHICH WILL IMPROVE
CONDITIONS...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO BECOME 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF
THE WEST WITH GUSTS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 30 KTS AT TIMES. DID NOT
INCLUDE STRONG WINDS IN ALL TAFS SINCE TIMING WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  24  24  -1 /  10  50  10   0
INL  31  16  16 -10 /  10  60  10   0
BRD  34  22  22   5 /  10  40   0   0
HYR  32  27  28  -2 /  10  50  20   0
ASX  34  27  29   2 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 281732
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1132 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LATE THIS MORNING...PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO FIND ANY REPORTS OF LOCAL
FREEZING DRIZZLE OR OR SNOW AS OF 11 AM. WILL HOLD OFF MENTIONING
FZDZ FOR ANY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS...BUT WILL ADD SOME TO THE
SOUTHERN CWA THIS EVENING FOR A TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING. SHOULD SEE THE FOG LIFT BY 15Z. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS AT 08Z WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO NW
ONTARIO. IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS
FALLING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR
THE FRONT FROM WINNIPEG TO NEAR DRYDEN. LATEST SHORT TERM HRRR AND
RAP KEEP THIS FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE ARROWHEAD IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY END BY NOON. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SFC LOW MOVES EASTWARD WITH THE LOW CENTER
BEGINS TO REORGANIZE AND DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO REVEL THEMSELVES WITH RESPECT
TO QPF PLACEMENT AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LIMITED QPF AND KEEPS IT NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND KEPT POPS TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE ALL SNOW. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING THE
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND HAVE REMOVED.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND THEIR TIMING ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE SNOW ENDING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL
SNOW AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
SLEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH FOUND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

ON THURSDAY...ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER
AS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AS
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A NW
WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND CAA WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH SHORE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT HOWEVER AS DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
FROM...YOU GUESSED IT...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM THAT WILL
/AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ PUT A STOP TO WHAT HAS BEEN A LONG PERIOD OF
WEAK /AND FRANKLY DISAPPOINTING FOR SNOW LOVERS/ CLIPPERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY MILD PATTERN TO A
COLDER REGIME...ENDING THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR
TO THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SERIES OF STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LATE THIS WEEK AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK CLIPPER ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS WILL DESCEND OVER THE
MIDWEST LEADING TO VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS APPROACHING THE
COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID -20S C /COMPARED TO 00Z
TODAY WHEN THEY WERE IN THE WARMEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMO AT AROUND
0C/.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS. GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH ECMWF PESSIMISTIC ON INTENSITY AND
GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. GEM WAS SLOWER
AND NOT AS INTENSE OVERALL...BUT THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
12Z GEM WHICH WAS FASTER AND MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OR TWO FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA NORTH
OF HIGHWAY TWO. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE
SEVEN DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH 850MB AND GREAT NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE LAKE. ICE COVERAGE ON THE SOUTH SHORE MAY LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...AND OPTED TO LEAVE NORTHERN
BAYFIELD COUNTY OUT OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DUE
TO WHAT WOULD BE A VERY LIMITED FETCH LENGTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AS NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A NEAR-SURFACE DRY
LAYER...SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE LOW LEVELS AND THUS LIMIT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...AND HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS A LITTLE COLDER THAN INITIAL GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE ARCTIC HIGHS THAT WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA IN THE
LONG TERM. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY...THEN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE TEENS
TUESDAY. LOWS NEAR ZERO TO TEN OR MORE BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...MILD FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS...THEN 0 TO
-15 SATURDAY NIGHT AND 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO...AND COLD SPOTS IN THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION NEAR 40 BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AS OF THIS MORNING
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR INL WERE ALREADY AT IFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INL CEILINGS EXPECTED TO WORSEN LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME SITES POSSIBLY
DETERIORATING TO LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WHICH WILL IMPROVE
CONDITIONS...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO BECOME 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF
THE WEST WITH GUSTS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 30 KTS AT TIMES. DID NOT
INCLUDE STRONG WINDS IN ALL TAFS SINCE TIMING WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  24  24  -1 /  10  50  10   0
INL  31  16  16 -10 /  10  60  10   0
BRD  34  22  22   5 /  10  40   0   0
HYR  32  27  28  -2 /  10  50  20   0
ASX  34  27  29   2 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 281254
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
654 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING. SHOULD SEE THE FOG LIFT BY 15Z. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS AT 08Z WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO NW
ONTARIO. IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS
FALLING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR
THE FRONT FROM WINNIPEG TO NEAR DRYDEN. LATEST SHORT TERM HRRR AND
RAP KEEP THIS FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE ARROWHEAD IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY END BY NOON. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SFC LOW MOVES EASTWARD WITH THE LOW CENTER
BEGINS TO REORGANIZE AND DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO REVEL THEMSELVES WITH RESPECT
TO QPF PLACEMENT AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LIMITED QPF AND KEEPS IT NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND KEPT POPS TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE ALL SNOW. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING THE
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND HAVE REMOVED.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND THEIR TIMING ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE SNOW ENDING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL
SNOW AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
SLEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH FOUND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

ON THURSDAY...ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER
AS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AS
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A NW
WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND CAA WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH SHORE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT HOWEVER AS DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
FROM...YOU GUESSED IT...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM THAT WILL
/AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ PUT A STOP TO WHAT HAS BEEN A LONG PERIOD OF
WEAK /AND FRANKLY DISAPPOINTING FOR SNOW LOVERS/ CLIPPERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY MILD PATTERN TO A
COLDER REGIME...ENDING THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR
TO THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SERIES OF STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LATE THIS WEEK AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK CLIPPER ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS WILL DESCEND OVER THE
MIDWEST LEADING TO VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS APPROACHING THE
COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID -20S C /COMPARED TO 00Z
TODAY WHEN THEY WERE IN THE WARMEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMO AT AROUND
0C/.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS. GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH ECMWF PESSIMISTIC ON INTENSITY AND
GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. GEM WAS SLOWER
AND NOT AS INTENSE OVERALL...BUT THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
12Z GEM WHICH WAS FASTER AND MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OR TWO FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA NORTH
OF HIGHWAY TWO. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE
SEVEN DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH 850MB AND GREAT NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE LAKE. ICE COVERAGE ON THE SOUTH SHORE MAY LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...AND OPTED TO LEAVE NORTHERN
BAYFIELD COUNTY OUT OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DUE
TO WHAT WOULD BE A VERY LIMITED FETCH LENGTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AS NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A NEAR-SURFACE DRY
LAYER...SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE LOW LEVELS AND THUS LIMIT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...AND HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS A LITTLE COLDER THAN INITIAL GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE ARCTIC HIGHS THAT WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA IN THE
LONG TERM. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY...THEN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE TEENS
TUESDAY. LOWS NEAR ZERO TO TEN OR MORE BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...MILD FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS...THEN 0 TO
-15 SATURDAY NIGHT AND 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO...AND COLD SPOTS IN THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION NEAR 40 BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AS OF THIS MORNING
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR INL WERE ALREADY AT IFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INL CEILINGS EXPECTED TO WORSEN LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME SITES POSSIBLY
DETERIORATING TO LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WHICH WILL IMPROVE
CONDITIONS...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO BECOME 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF
THE WEST WITH GUSTS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 30 KTS AT TIMES. DID NOT
INCLUDE STRONG WINDS IN ALL TAFS SINCE TIMING WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  24  24  -1 /  10  50  10   0
INL  32  16  16 -10 /  30  60  10   0
BRD  34  22  22   5 /  10  40   0   0
HYR  33  27  27  -2 /  10  50  20   0
ASX  34  27  27   2 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 281254
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
654 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS SEVERAL LOCATIONS ARE
REPORTING. SHOULD SEE THE FOG LIFT BY 15Z. REST OF THE FORECAST ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS AT 08Z WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO NW
ONTARIO. IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS
FALLING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR
THE FRONT FROM WINNIPEG TO NEAR DRYDEN. LATEST SHORT TERM HRRR AND
RAP KEEP THIS FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE ARROWHEAD IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY END BY NOON. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SFC LOW MOVES EASTWARD WITH THE LOW CENTER
BEGINS TO REORGANIZE AND DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO REVEL THEMSELVES WITH RESPECT
TO QPF PLACEMENT AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LIMITED QPF AND KEEPS IT NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND KEPT POPS TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE ALL SNOW. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING THE
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND HAVE REMOVED.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND THEIR TIMING ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE SNOW ENDING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL
SNOW AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
SLEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH FOUND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

ON THURSDAY...ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER
AS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AS
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A NW
WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND CAA WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH SHORE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT HOWEVER AS DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
FROM...YOU GUESSED IT...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM THAT WILL
/AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ PUT A STOP TO WHAT HAS BEEN A LONG PERIOD OF
WEAK /AND FRANKLY DISAPPOINTING FOR SNOW LOVERS/ CLIPPERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY MILD PATTERN TO A
COLDER REGIME...ENDING THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR
TO THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SERIES OF STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LATE THIS WEEK AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK CLIPPER ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS WILL DESCEND OVER THE
MIDWEST LEADING TO VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS APPROACHING THE
COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID -20S C /COMPARED TO 00Z
TODAY WHEN THEY WERE IN THE WARMEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMO AT AROUND
0C/.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS. GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH ECMWF PESSIMISTIC ON INTENSITY AND
GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. GEM WAS SLOWER
AND NOT AS INTENSE OVERALL...BUT THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
12Z GEM WHICH WAS FASTER AND MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OR TWO FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA NORTH
OF HIGHWAY TWO. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE
SEVEN DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH 850MB AND GREAT NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE LAKE. ICE COVERAGE ON THE SOUTH SHORE MAY LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...AND OPTED TO LEAVE NORTHERN
BAYFIELD COUNTY OUT OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DUE
TO WHAT WOULD BE A VERY LIMITED FETCH LENGTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AS NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A NEAR-SURFACE DRY
LAYER...SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE LOW LEVELS AND THUS LIMIT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...AND HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS A LITTLE COLDER THAN INITIAL GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE ARCTIC HIGHS THAT WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA IN THE
LONG TERM. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY...THEN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE TEENS
TUESDAY. LOWS NEAR ZERO TO TEN OR MORE BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...MILD FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS...THEN 0 TO
-15 SATURDAY NIGHT AND 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO...AND COLD SPOTS IN THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION NEAR 40 BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AS OF THIS MORNING
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR INL WERE ALREADY AT IFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INL CEILINGS EXPECTED TO WORSEN LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME SITES POSSIBLY
DETERIORATING TO LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WHICH WILL IMPROVE
CONDITIONS...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO BECOME 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF
THE WEST WITH GUSTS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 30 KTS AT TIMES. DID NOT
INCLUDE STRONG WINDS IN ALL TAFS SINCE TIMING WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  24  24  -1 /  10  50  10   0
INL  32  16  16 -10 /  30  60  10   0
BRD  34  22  22   5 /  10  40   0   0
HYR  33  27  27  -2 /  10  50  20   0
ASX  34  27  27   2 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 281126
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
526 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS AT 08Z WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO NW
ONTARIO. IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS
FALLING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR
THE FRONT FROM WINNIPEG TO NEAR DRYDEN. LATEST SHORT TERM HRRR AND
RAP KEEP THIS FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE ARROWHEAD IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY END BY NOON. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SFC LOW MOVES EASTWARD WITH THE LOW CENTER
BEGINS TO REORGANIZE AND DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO REVEL THEMSELVES WITH RESPECT
TO QPF PLACEMENT AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LIMITED QPF AND KEEPS IT NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND KEPT POPS TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE ALL SNOW. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING THE
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND HAVE REMOVED.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND THEIR TIMING ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE SNOW ENDING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL
SNOW AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
SLEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH FOUND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

ON THURSDAY...ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER
AS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AS
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A NW
WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND CAA WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH SHORE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT HOWEVER AS DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
FROM...YOU GUESSED IT...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM THAT WILL
/AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ PUT A STOP TO WHAT HAS BEEN A LONG PERIOD OF
WEAK /AND FRANKLY DISAPPOINTING FOR SNOW LOVERS/ CLIPPERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY MILD PATTERN TO A
COLDER REGIME...ENDING THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR
TO THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SERIES OF STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LATE THIS WEEK AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK CLIPPER ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS WILL DESCEND OVER THE
MIDWEST LEADING TO VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS APPROACHING THE
COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID -20S C /COMPARED TO 00Z
TODAY WHEN THEY WERE IN THE WARMEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMO AT AROUND
0C/.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS. GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH ECMWF PESSIMISTIC ON INTENSITY AND
GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. GEM WAS SLOWER
AND NOT AS INTENSE OVERALL...BUT THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
12Z GEM WHICH WAS FASTER AND MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OR TWO FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA NORTH
OF HIGHWAY TWO. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE
SEVEN DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH 850MB AND GREAT NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE LAKE. ICE COVERAGE ON THE SOUTH SHORE MAY LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...AND OPTED TO LEAVE NORTHERN
BAYFIELD COUNTY OUT OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DUE
TO WHAT WOULD BE A VERY LIMITED FETCH LENGTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AS NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A NEAR-SURFACE DRY
LAYER...SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE LOW LEVELS AND THUS LIMIT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...AND HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS A LITTLE COLDER THAN INITIAL GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE ARCTIC HIGHS THAT WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA IN THE
LONG TERM. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY...THEN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE TEENS
TUESDAY. LOWS NEAR ZERO TO TEN OR MORE BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...MILD FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS...THEN 0 TO
-15 SATURDAY NIGHT AND 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO...AND COLD SPOTS IN THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION NEAR 40 BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AS OF THIS MORNING
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR INL WERE ALREADY AT IFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INL CEILINGS EXPECTED TO WORSEN LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME SITES POSSIBLY
DETERIORATING TO LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WHICH WILL IMPROVE
CONDITIONS...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO BECOME 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF
THE WEST WITH GUSTS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 30 KTS AT TIMES. DID NOT
INCLUDE STRONG WINDS IN ALL TAFS SINCE TIMING WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  24  24  -1 /  10  50  10   0
INL  32  16  16 -10 /  30  60  10   0
BRD  34  22  22   5 /  10  40   0   0
HYR  33  27  27  -2 /  10  50  20   0
ASX  34  27  27   2 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 281126
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
526 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

LOW PRESSURE WAS ORGANIZING IN THE DAKOTAS AT 08Z WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND INTO NW
ONTARIO. IN THE WAA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...SOME LIGHT SNOW WAS
FALLING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WITH LITTLE ACCUMULATION. NORTH OF THE
CANADIAN BORDER...SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN WAS OCCURRING RIGHT NEAR
THE FRONT FROM WINNIPEG TO NEAR DRYDEN. LATEST SHORT TERM HRRR AND
RAP KEEP THIS FREEZING RAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER. THE LIGHT SNOW OVER
THE ARROWHEAD IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY END BY NOON. LITTLE ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED.

BY THIS AFTERNOON...THE SFC LOW MOVES EASTWARD WITH THE LOW CENTER
BEGINS TO REORGANIZE AND DRIFT INTO SOUTHWEST IOWA BY 00Z THURSDAY.
MEANWHILE...A MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO REVEL THEMSELVES WITH RESPECT
TO QPF PLACEMENT AND THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR FORECAST TO DROP INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS THE MOST ROBUST AND FURTHEST SOUTH
WHILE THE ECMWF HAS LIMITED QPF AND KEEPS IT NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH AND KEPT POPS TO THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL
BE ALL SNOW. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE NOT SUPPORTING THE
MENTION OF FREEZING RAIN OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AND HAVE REMOVED.

TONIGHT...THE MID LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA BY 12Z THURSDAY. THIS PUSHES THE SFC LOW EAST OF THE AREA AS
WELL. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT MOVES OVER
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN
DAKOTAS. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND THEIR TIMING ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH THE SNOW ENDING LATE TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS LATE TONIGHT.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE ALL
SNOW AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION FREEZING RAIN/FREEZING DRIZZLE AND
SLEET. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OF AROUND
ONE HALF INCH FOUND ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER.

ON THURSDAY...ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE POPS AND WEATHER
AS MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT. WILL STILL HAVE GUSTY WINDS AS
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY. A NW
WIND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND CAA WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE EFFECT SNOW
ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTH SHORE. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT HOWEVER AS DEEP COLD AIR IS LACKING UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

MUCH COLDER AIR ON THE WAY FOR THIS WEEKEND WITH A CHANCE FOR SNOW
FROM...YOU GUESSED IT...ANOTHER WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM. THE LARGE SCALE
PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SOME CHANGES THROUGH THE LONG TERM THAT WILL
/AT LEAST TEMPORARILY/ PUT A STOP TO WHAT HAS BEEN A LONG PERIOD OF
WEAK /AND FRANKLY DISAPPOINTING FOR SNOW LOVERS/ CLIPPERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP FROM WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY MILD PATTERN TO A
COLDER REGIME...ENDING THE LAST WEEK OF JANUARY WITH TEMPS SIMILAR
TO THE FIRST WEEK OF THE MONTH.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A SERIES OF STRONG ARCTIC AIR MASSES WILL DROP
DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. LATE THIS WEEK AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A WEAK CLIPPER ON FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH AT MID-LEVELS WILL DESCEND OVER THE
MIDWEST LEADING TO VERY COLD AIR ALOFT...850MB TEMPS APPROACHING THE
COLDEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMATOLOGY IN THE MID -20S C /COMPARED TO 00Z
TODAY WHEN THEY WERE IN THE WARMEST 10 PERCENT OF CLIMO AT AROUND
0C/.

BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT A CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS. GFS AND ECMWF IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING...WITH ECMWF PESSIMISTIC ON INTENSITY AND
GFS A LITTLE STRONGER WITH A DEEPER MOISTURE PROFILE. GEM WAS SLOWER
AND NOT AS INTENSE OVERALL...BUT THIS WAS A PRETTY BIG CHANGE FROM
12Z GEM WHICH WAS FASTER AND MUCH MORE AGGRESSIVE ON PRECIP. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE A QUICK INCH OR TWO FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA NORTH
OF HIGHWAY TWO. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES FOR PRECIP IN THE
SEVEN DAY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL WILL BE PRESENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. ON THURSDAY NIGHT CONDITIONS WILL BE GOOD FOR LAKE EFFECT
SNOWFALL ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WITH
STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH 850MB AND GREAT NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW OVER THE LAKE. ICE COVERAGE ON THE SOUTH SHORE MAY LIMIT THE
INTENSITY OF LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL...AND OPTED TO LEAVE NORTHERN
BAYFIELD COUNTY OUT OF HIGHER CHANCES FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL DUE
TO WHAT WOULD BE A VERY LIMITED FETCH LENGTH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL ALSO BE A FACTOR AS NAM/GFS/ECMWF DEPICT A NEAR-SURFACE DRY
LAYER...SO IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO SATURATE LOW LEVELS AND THUS LIMIT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. LAKE EFFECT WILL TAPER OFF AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
OVER LAKE SUPERIOR ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT RAMP BACK UP AGAIN ON
SATURDAY AND THROUGH ABOUT TUESDAY DUE TO THE VERY COLD AIRMASS THAT
WILL BE IN PLACE.

TEMPS WILL BE ON A DOWNWARD TREND...AND HAVE ADJUSTED SOME OF THE
USUAL COLD SPOTS A LITTLE COLDER THAN INITIAL GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE ARCTIC HIGHS THAT WILL BE OVER NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA IN THE
LONG TERM. HIGHS IN THE MID TEENS TO MID 20S ON SATURDAY...THEN THE
SINGLE DIGITS ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE RECOVERING TO THE TEENS
TUESDAY. LOWS NEAR ZERO TO TEN OR MORE BELOW ZERO ON THURSDAY
NIGHT...MILD FRIDAY NIGHT DUE TO WEAK SOUTHERLY WINDS...THEN 0 TO
-15 SATURDAY NIGHT AND 10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO ON SUNDAY NIGHT. MONDAY
MORNING WILL BE THE COLDEST PERIOD IN THE LONG TERM WITH WIND CHILL
VALUES OF 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO...AND COLD SPOTS IN THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION NEAR 40 BELOW ZERO.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 526 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES
DUE TO LOW CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING. AS OF THIS MORNING
ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT FOR INL WERE ALREADY AT IFR CONDITIONS...WITH
INL CEILINGS EXPECTED TO WORSEN LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WILL BE
LITTLE IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME SITES POSSIBLY
DETERIORATING TO LIFR CEILINGS AND IFR VISIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON.
TONIGHT A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH WHICH WILL IMPROVE
CONDITIONS...WITH CEILINGS IMPROVING TO MVFR LEVELS. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT TODAY OUT OF THE SOUTH...BUT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE
TONIGHT WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO BECOME 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF
THE WEST WITH GUSTS APPROACHING/EXCEEDING 30 KTS AT TIMES. DID NOT
INCLUDE STRONG WINDS IN ALL TAFS SINCE TIMING WILL BE RIGHT AROUND
END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  24  24  -1 /  10  50  10   0
INL  32  16  16 -10 /  30  60  10   0
BRD  34  22  22   5 /  10  40   0   0
HYR  33  27  27  -2 /  10  50  20   0
ASX  34  27  27   2 /  10  50  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM







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