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000
FXUS63 KDLH 201126
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
626 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

DENSE FOG ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR WISC COUNTIES AND NORTH SHORE AS
LOW STRATUS HAS INVADED SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL
COOLING OF BDRY LYR TEMPS. MORE FAVORED LOCATION HAS TRENDED NORTHWEST
SO ADDED KOOCH AND NRN ST LOUIS. IF LOW CLOUD CANOPY CONTINUES AT
THIS RATE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP MOST OF THE DFA AROUND 7AM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED SFC/MID LVL LOW OVER U.P. OF MICH CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER THE ERN CWA THIS
MORNING. MID LVL RIDGING IS BUILDING SLOWLY INTO THE WRN CWA AS
A BROAD UPSTREAM MID LVL TROF CONTINUES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. A
LARGE ARE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...HAS DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. HAVE ISSUED A DFA FOR NOW OVER THE DULUTH TO
PINE COUNTY...NORTH SHORE..AND IRON RANGE VICINITY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LIMITED AS WE MAY SEE MORE LOW STRATUS THAN FOG. LATEST SHORT
TERM FCST OF SFC CPD SUGGESTS HIGHER PROB OF DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR
FROM I35 CORRIDOR TO KGPZ AND NORTH TO BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TODAY...EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY THIN/ERODE BY
MIDDAY MOST LOCATIONS AS BDRY LYR GRADUALLY WARMS AND ENTRAINMENT
ENHANCES EVAPORATION. MAIN MID LVL FEATURES MOVE VERY SLOWLY TODAY
SO SOME CONCERN THAT WE MAY HANG ONTO CLOUDS LONGER IN THE
EAST...AND A FEW MORE RW WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY FCST. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN ARROWHEAD FOR SOME RW TODAY ON BACK EDGE OF
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM U.P SYSTEM. PREVAILING SE BDRY LYR FLOW
SHOULD KEEP NEAR LAKE LOCATIONS COOLER THAN WELL INLAND.

TONIGHT...A MID LVL TROF ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MN BY EARLY THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE WRN CWA. 85H MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FCST TO
RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO SWRN CWA BY 12Z AS LLJ INTENSIFIES. A WARM
FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO CTRL MN BY DAYBREAK WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE BDRY INTO THE SRN CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY ACROSS SWRN CWA...AND SRN TIER OF WRN WI ZONES. ELEVATED
CAPE COMBINES WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEEP LYR SHEAR TO PRESENT AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL.

TOMORROW...WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO SRN EDGE OF CWA AS SFC
LOW TRACKS EAST..AND POSSIBLY REFORMS FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF CWA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL OF STRONG/SVR
STORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS SUFFICIENT 0/6KM
SHEAR ADVECTS OVERHEAD. LATEST SREF FCST OF MLCAPES/EFFECTIVE
SHEAR SUGGEST SRN ZONES MAY BE AT RISK. ADDED FACTOR OF LOW LVL
BDRY MAY ENHANCE NEAR SFC CONVERGENCE AND LOW LVL HELICITY. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY MAIN FORCING AREA AS IT SHIFTS NE INTO ERN CWA
DURING THE AFTN. FCST VALUES OF PWAT/WARM CLOUD DEPTH/LOW LVL JET
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITHIN EMBEDDED CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS
IN WARM SECTOR NEAR LOWER ST CROIX VALLEY MAY REACH MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS THAT BEGAN TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING...AND
THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST.
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

FRIDAY MORNING SOME SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE EAST...BUT THESE TO
COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY AND THE EVENING SHOULD BE DRY OR
NEARLY DRY...AS WE WILL BE IN THE WEAK RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT AND THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.  CONDITIONS REMAIN MILD WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S...AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY...AND WILL SWING OUT TOWARDS THE MIDWEST BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY.  CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SWEEPS TOWARDS AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LOWER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THOUGH WE HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND TRACK...AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A DECENT
RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND.  UNFORTUNATE FOR
VISITORS...BUT IT CANNOT BE HELPED.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN COOLING
OFF INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE 50S
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL COOL OFF INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 13Z-15Z. KHYR TO KEEP STRATUS A LITTLE
LONGER...NOT RETURNING VFR UNTIL 19Z. THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE
VFR WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS. LATE TONIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEGINNING TO AFFECT AFTER 05Z...MAINLY BRINGING MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS. KDLH AND KHYR TO HAVE IFR CIGS/VISBYS...BEGINNING
AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  57  68  61 /  10  30  60  50
INL  77  56  71  58 /   0  20  60  50
BRD  80  62  82  62 /  10  70  70  20
HYR  75  59  80  64 /  10  50  60  40
ASX  72  54  75  62 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010-011-
     018-019-026-034>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE










000
FXUS63 KDLH 201126
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
626 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

DENSE FOG ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR WISC COUNTIES AND NORTH SHORE AS
LOW STRATUS HAS INVADED SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL
COOLING OF BDRY LYR TEMPS. MORE FAVORED LOCATION HAS TRENDED NORTHWEST
SO ADDED KOOCH AND NRN ST LOUIS. IF LOW CLOUD CANOPY CONTINUES AT
THIS RATE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP MOST OF THE DFA AROUND 7AM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED SFC/MID LVL LOW OVER U.P. OF MICH CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER THE ERN CWA THIS
MORNING. MID LVL RIDGING IS BUILDING SLOWLY INTO THE WRN CWA AS
A BROAD UPSTREAM MID LVL TROF CONTINUES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. A
LARGE ARE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...HAS DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. HAVE ISSUED A DFA FOR NOW OVER THE DULUTH TO
PINE COUNTY...NORTH SHORE..AND IRON RANGE VICINITY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LIMITED AS WE MAY SEE MORE LOW STRATUS THAN FOG. LATEST SHORT
TERM FCST OF SFC CPD SUGGESTS HIGHER PROB OF DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR
FROM I35 CORRIDOR TO KGPZ AND NORTH TO BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TODAY...EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY THIN/ERODE BY
MIDDAY MOST LOCATIONS AS BDRY LYR GRADUALLY WARMS AND ENTRAINMENT
ENHANCES EVAPORATION. MAIN MID LVL FEATURES MOVE VERY SLOWLY TODAY
SO SOME CONCERN THAT WE MAY HANG ONTO CLOUDS LONGER IN THE
EAST...AND A FEW MORE RW WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY FCST. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN ARROWHEAD FOR SOME RW TODAY ON BACK EDGE OF
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM U.P SYSTEM. PREVAILING SE BDRY LYR FLOW
SHOULD KEEP NEAR LAKE LOCATIONS COOLER THAN WELL INLAND.

TONIGHT...A MID LVL TROF ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MN BY EARLY THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE WRN CWA. 85H MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FCST TO
RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO SWRN CWA BY 12Z AS LLJ INTENSIFIES. A WARM
FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO CTRL MN BY DAYBREAK WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE BDRY INTO THE SRN CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY ACROSS SWRN CWA...AND SRN TIER OF WRN WI ZONES. ELEVATED
CAPE COMBINES WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEEP LYR SHEAR TO PRESENT AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL.

TOMORROW...WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO SRN EDGE OF CWA AS SFC
LOW TRACKS EAST..AND POSSIBLY REFORMS FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF CWA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL OF STRONG/SVR
STORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS SUFFICIENT 0/6KM
SHEAR ADVECTS OVERHEAD. LATEST SREF FCST OF MLCAPES/EFFECTIVE
SHEAR SUGGEST SRN ZONES MAY BE AT RISK. ADDED FACTOR OF LOW LVL
BDRY MAY ENHANCE NEAR SFC CONVERGENCE AND LOW LVL HELICITY. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY MAIN FORCING AREA AS IT SHIFTS NE INTO ERN CWA
DURING THE AFTN. FCST VALUES OF PWAT/WARM CLOUD DEPTH/LOW LVL JET
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITHIN EMBEDDED CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS
IN WARM SECTOR NEAR LOWER ST CROIX VALLEY MAY REACH MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS THAT BEGAN TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING...AND
THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST.
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

FRIDAY MORNING SOME SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE EAST...BUT THESE TO
COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY AND THE EVENING SHOULD BE DRY OR
NEARLY DRY...AS WE WILL BE IN THE WEAK RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT AND THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.  CONDITIONS REMAIN MILD WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S...AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY...AND WILL SWING OUT TOWARDS THE MIDWEST BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY.  CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SWEEPS TOWARDS AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LOWER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THOUGH WE HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND TRACK...AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A DECENT
RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND.  UNFORTUNATE FOR
VISITORS...BUT IT CANNOT BE HELPED.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN COOLING
OFF INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE 50S
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL COOL OFF INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

EARLY MORNING FOG AND/OR STRATUS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS EARLY
THIS MORNING. EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT...WITH A RETURN TO VFR
CONDITIONS BETWEEN 13Z-15Z. KHYR TO KEEP STRATUS A LITTLE
LONGER...NOT RETURNING VFR UNTIL 19Z. THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE
VFR WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS LESS THAN 10KTS. LATE TONIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO MOVE INTO THE TERMINALS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...BEGINNING TO AFFECT AFTER 05Z...MAINLY BRINGING MVFR
CIGS AND VSBYS. KDLH AND KHYR TO HAVE IFR CIGS/VISBYS...BEGINNING
AFTER 06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  57  68  61 /  10  30  60  50
INL  77  56  71  58 /   0  20  60  50
BRD  80  62  82  62 /  10  70  70  20
HYR  75  59  80  64 /  10  50  60  40
ASX  72  54  75  62 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010-011-
     018-019-026-034>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE











000
FXUS63 KDLH 201047 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
547 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

DENSE FOG ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR WISC COUNTIES AND NORTH SHORE AS
LOW STRATUS HAS INVADED SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL
COOLING OF BDRY LYR TEMPS. MORE FAVORED LOCATION HAS TRENDED NORTHWEST
SO ADDED KOOCH AND NRN ST LOUIS. IF LOW CLOUD CANOPY CONTINUES AT
THIS RATE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP MOST OF THE DFA AROUND 7AM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED SFC/MID LVL LOW OVER U.P. OF MICH CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER THE ERN CWA THIS
MORNING. MID LVL RIDGING IS BUILDING SLOWLY INTO THE WRN CWA AS
A BROAD UPSTREAM MID LVL TROF CONTINUES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. A
LARGE ARE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...HAS DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. HAVE ISSUED A DFA FOR NOW OVER THE DULUTH TO
PINE COUNTY...NORTH SHORE..AND IRON RANGE VICINITY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LIMITED AS WE MAY SEE MORE LOW STRATUS THAN FOG. LATEST SHORT
TERM FCST OF SFC CPD SUGGESTS HIGHER PROB OF DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR
FROM I35 CORRIDOR TO KGPZ AND NORTH TO BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TODAY...EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY THIN/ERODE BY
MIDDAY MOST LOCATIONS AS BDRY LYR GRADUALLY WARMS AND ENTRAINMENT
ENHANCES EVAPORATION. MAIN MID LVL FEATURES MOVE VERY SLOWLY TODAY
SO SOME CONCERN THAT WE MAY HANG ONTO CLOUDS LONGER IN THE
EAST...AND A FEW MORE RW WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY FCST. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN ARROWHEAD FOR SOME RW TODAY ON BACK EDGE OF
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM U.P SYSTEM. PREVAILING SE BDRY LYR FLOW
SHOULD KEEP NEAR LAKE LOCATIONS COOLER THAN WELL INLAND.

TONIGHT...A MID LVL TROF ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MN BY EARLY THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE WRN CWA. 85H MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FCST TO
RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO SWRN CWA BY 12Z AS LLJ INTENSIFIES. A WARM
FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO CTRL MN BY DAYBREAK WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE BDRY INTO THE SRN CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY ACROSS SWRN CWA...AND SRN TIER OF WRN WI ZONES. ELEVATED
CAPE COMBINES WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEEP LYR SHEAR TO PRESENT AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL.

TOMORROW...WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO SRN EDGE OF CWA AS SFC
LOW TRACKS EAST..AND POSSIBLY REFORMS FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF CWA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL OF STRONG/SVR
STORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS SUFFICIENT 0/6KM
SHEAR ADVECTS OVERHEAD. LATEST SREF FCST OF MLCAPES/EFFECTIVE
SHEAR SUGGEST SRN ZONES MAY BE AT RISK. ADDED FACTOR OF LOW LVL
BDRY MAY ENHANCE NEAR SFC CONVERGENCE AND LOW LVL HELICITY. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY MAIN FORCING AREA AS IT SHIFTS NE INTO ERN CWA
DURING THE AFTN. FCST VALUES OF PWAT/WARM CLOUD DEPTH/LOW LVL JET
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITHIN EMBEDDED CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS
IN WARM SECTOR NEAR LOWER ST CROIX VALLEY MAY REACH MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS THAT BEGAN TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING...AND
THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST.
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

FRIDAY MORNING SOME SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE EAST...BUT THESE TO
COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY AND THE EVENING SHOULD BE DRY OR
NEARLY DRY...AS WE WILL BE IN THE WEAK RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT AND THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.  CONDITIONS REMAIN MILD WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S...AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY...AND WILL SWING OUT TOWARDS THE MIDWEST BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY.  CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SWEEPS TOWARDS AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LOWER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THOUGH WE HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND TRACK...AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A DECENT
RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND.  UNFORTUNATE FOR
VISITORS...BUT IT CANNOT BE HELPED.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN COOLING
OFF INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE 50S
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL COOL OFF INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

FOG THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TO CAUSE
HIGHLY VARIABLE VISIBILITIES IN FOG...AND HAVE CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR AT TIMES FOR SEVERAL TERMINALS. CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 13Z. MID CLOUDS BEGIN TO
APPROACH BRD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST AHEAD OF NEXT RAIN MAKER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  57  68  61 /  10  30  60  50
INL  77  56  71  58 /   0  20  60  50
BRD  80  62  82  62 /  10  70  70  20
HYR  75  59  80  64 /  10  50  60  40
ASX  72  54  75  62 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010-011-
     018-019-026-034>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE/GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 201047 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
547 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 543 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

DENSE FOG ADVISORY CANCELLED FOR WISC COUNTIES AND NORTH SHORE AS
LOW STRATUS HAS INVADED SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH TO LIMIT ADDITIONAL
COOLING OF BDRY LYR TEMPS. MORE FAVORED LOCATION HAS TRENDED NORTHWEST
SO ADDED KOOCH AND NRN ST LOUIS. IF LOW CLOUD CANOPY CONTINUES AT
THIS RATE MAY BE ABLE TO DROP MOST OF THE DFA AROUND 7AM.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED SFC/MID LVL LOW OVER U.P. OF MICH CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER THE ERN CWA THIS
MORNING. MID LVL RIDGING IS BUILDING SLOWLY INTO THE WRN CWA AS
A BROAD UPSTREAM MID LVL TROF CONTINUES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. A
LARGE ARE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...HAS DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. HAVE ISSUED A DFA FOR NOW OVER THE DULUTH TO
PINE COUNTY...NORTH SHORE..AND IRON RANGE VICINITY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LIMITED AS WE MAY SEE MORE LOW STRATUS THAN FOG. LATEST SHORT
TERM FCST OF SFC CPD SUGGESTS HIGHER PROB OF DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR
FROM I35 CORRIDOR TO KGPZ AND NORTH TO BORDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TODAY...EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY THIN/ERODE BY
MIDDAY MOST LOCATIONS AS BDRY LYR GRADUALLY WARMS AND ENTRAINMENT
ENHANCES EVAPORATION. MAIN MID LVL FEATURES MOVE VERY SLOWLY TODAY
SO SOME CONCERN THAT WE MAY HANG ONTO CLOUDS LONGER IN THE
EAST...AND A FEW MORE RW WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY FCST. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN ARROWHEAD FOR SOME RW TODAY ON BACK EDGE OF
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM U.P SYSTEM. PREVAILING SE BDRY LYR FLOW
SHOULD KEEP NEAR LAKE LOCATIONS COOLER THAN WELL INLAND.

TONIGHT...A MID LVL TROF ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MN BY EARLY THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE WRN CWA. 85H MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FCST TO
RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO SWRN CWA BY 12Z AS LLJ INTENSIFIES. A WARM
FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO CTRL MN BY DAYBREAK WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE BDRY INTO THE SRN CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY ACROSS SWRN CWA...AND SRN TIER OF WRN WI ZONES. ELEVATED
CAPE COMBINES WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEEP LYR SHEAR TO PRESENT AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL.

TOMORROW...WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO SRN EDGE OF CWA AS SFC
LOW TRACKS EAST..AND POSSIBLY REFORMS FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF CWA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL OF STRONG/SVR
STORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS SUFFICIENT 0/6KM
SHEAR ADVECTS OVERHEAD. LATEST SREF FCST OF MLCAPES/EFFECTIVE
SHEAR SUGGEST SRN ZONES MAY BE AT RISK. ADDED FACTOR OF LOW LVL
BDRY MAY ENHANCE NEAR SFC CONVERGENCE AND LOW LVL HELICITY. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY MAIN FORCING AREA AS IT SHIFTS NE INTO ERN CWA
DURING THE AFTN. FCST VALUES OF PWAT/WARM CLOUD DEPTH/LOW LVL JET
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITHIN EMBEDDED CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS
IN WARM SECTOR NEAR LOWER ST CROIX VALLEY MAY REACH MID 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS THAT BEGAN TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING...AND
THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST.
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

FRIDAY MORNING SOME SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE EAST...BUT THESE TO
COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY AND THE EVENING SHOULD BE DRY OR
NEARLY DRY...AS WE WILL BE IN THE WEAK RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT AND THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.  CONDITIONS REMAIN MILD WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S...AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY...AND WILL SWING OUT TOWARDS THE MIDWEST BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY.  CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SWEEPS TOWARDS AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LOWER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THOUGH WE HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND TRACK...AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A DECENT
RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND.  UNFORTUNATE FOR
VISITORS...BUT IT CANNOT BE HELPED.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN COOLING
OFF INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE 50S
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL COOL OFF INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

FOG THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TO CAUSE
HIGHLY VARIABLE VISIBILITIES IN FOG...AND HAVE CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR AT TIMES FOR SEVERAL TERMINALS. CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 13Z. MID CLOUDS BEGIN TO
APPROACH BRD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST AHEAD OF NEXT RAIN MAKER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  57  68  61 /  10  30  60  50
INL  77  56  71  58 /   0  20  60  50
BRD  80  62  82  62 /  10  70  70  20
HYR  75  59  80  64 /  10  50  60  40
ASX  72  54  75  62 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ010-011-
     018-019-026-034>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE/GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200902
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
402 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED SFC/MID LVL LOW OVER U.P. OF MICH CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER THE ERN CWA THIS
MORNING. MID LVL RIDGING IS BUILDING SLOWLY INTO THE WRN CWA AS
A BROAD UPSTREAM MID LVL TROF CONTINUES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. A
LARGE ARE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...HAS DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. HAVE ISSUED A DFA FOR NOW OVER THE DULUTH TO
PINE COUNTY...NORTH SHORE..AND IRON RANGE VICINITY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LIMITED AS WE MAY SEE MORE LOW STRATUS THAN FOG. LATEST SHORT
TERM FCST OF SFC CPD SUGGESTS HIGHER PROB OF DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR
FROM I35 CORRIDOR TO KGPZ AND NORTH TO BORDER.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TODAY...EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY THIN/ERODE BY
MIDDAY MOST LOCATIONS AS BDRY LYR GRADUALLY WARMS AND ENTRAINMENT
ENHANCES EVAPORATION. MAIN MID LVL FEATURES MOVE VERY SLOWLY TODAY
SO SOME CONCERN THAT WE MAY HANG ONTO CLOUDS LONGER IN THE
EAST...AND A FEW MORE RW WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY FCST. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN ARROWHEAD FOR SOME RW TODAY ON BACK EDGE OF
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM U.P SYSTEM. PREVAILING SE BDRY LYR FLOW
SHOULD KEEP NEAR LAKE LOCATIONS COOLER THAN WELL INLAND.

TONIGHT...A MID LVL TROF ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MN BY EARLY THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE WRN CWA. 85H MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FCST TO
RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO SWRN CWA BY 12Z AS LLJ INTENSIFIES. A WARM
FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO CTRL MN BY DAYBREAK WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE BDRY INTO THE SRN CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY ACROSS SWRN CWA...AND SRN TIER OF WRN WI ZONES. ELEVATED
CAPE COMBINES WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEEP LYR SHEAR TO PRESENT AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL.

TOMORROW...WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO SRN EDGE OF CWA AS SFC
LOW TRACKS EAST..AND POSSIBLY REFORMS FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF CWA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL OF STRONG/SVR
STORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS SUFFICIENT 0/6KM
SHEAR ADVECTS OVERHEAD. LATEST SREF FCST OF MLCAPES/EFFECTIVE
SHEAR SUGGEST SRN ZONES MAY BE AT RISK. ADDED FACTOR OF LOW LVL
BDRY MAY ENHANCE NEAR SFC CONVERGENCE AND LOW LVL HELICITY. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY MAIN FORCING AREA AS IT SHIFTS NE INTO ERN CWA
DURING THE AFTN. FCST VALUES OF PWAT/WARM CLOUD DEPTH/LOW LVL JET
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITHIN EMBEDDED CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS
IN WARM SECTOR NEAR LOWER ST CROIX VALLEY MAY REACH MID 80S.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS THAT BEGAN TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING...AND
THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST.
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

FRIDAY MORNING SOME SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE EAST...BUT THESE TO
COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY AND THE EVENING SHOULD BE DRY OR
NEARLY DRY...AS WE WILL BE IN THE WEAK RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT AND THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.  CONDITIONS REMAIN MILD WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S...AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY...AND WILL SWING OUT TOWARDS THE MIDWEST BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY.  CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SWEEPS TOWARDS AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LOWER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THOUGH WE HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND TRACK...AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A DECENT
RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND.  UNFORTUNATE FOR
VISITORS...BUT IT CANNOT BE HELPED.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN COOLING
OFF INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE 50S
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL COOL OFF INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

FOG THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TO CAUSE
HIGHLY VARIABLE VISIBILITIES IN FOG...AND HAVE CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR AT TIMES FOR SEVERAL TERMINALS. CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 13Z. MID CLOUDS BEGIN TO
APPROACH BRD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST AHEAD OF NEXT RAIN MAKER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  57  68  61 /  10  30  60  50
INL  77  56  71  58 /   0  20  60  50
BRD  80  62  82  62 /  10  70  70  20
HYR  75  59  80  64 /  10  50  60  40
ASX  72  54  75  62 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ018>020-
     026-034>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001-006-
     007.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE/GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200902
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
402 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED SFC/MID LVL LOW OVER U.P. OF MICH CONTINUES TO
PROVIDE A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALOFT OVER THE ERN CWA THIS
MORNING. MID LVL RIDGING IS BUILDING SLOWLY INTO THE WRN CWA AS
A BROAD UPSTREAM MID LVL TROF CONTINUES OVER THE NRN ROCKIES. A
LARGE ARE OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG...LOCALLY DENSE...HAS DEVELOPED
OVER MOST OF THE CWA. HAVE ISSUED A DFA FOR NOW OVER THE DULUTH TO
PINE COUNTY...NORTH SHORE..AND IRON RANGE VICINITY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE
IS LIMITED AS WE MAY SEE MORE LOW STRATUS THAN FOG. LATEST SHORT
TERM FCST OF SFC CPD SUGGESTS HIGHER PROB OF DENSE FOG WILL OCCUR
FROM I35 CORRIDOR TO KGPZ AND NORTH TO BORDER.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

TODAY...EARLY MORNING STRATUS AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY THIN/ERODE BY
MIDDAY MOST LOCATIONS AS BDRY LYR GRADUALLY WARMS AND ENTRAINMENT
ENHANCES EVAPORATION. MAIN MID LVL FEATURES MOVE VERY SLOWLY TODAY
SO SOME CONCERN THAT WE MAY HANG ONTO CLOUDS LONGER IN THE
EAST...AND A FEW MORE RW WILL DEVELOP THAN CURRENTLY FCST. HAVE
MAINTAINED LOW POPS IN ARROWHEAD FOR SOME RW TODAY ON BACK EDGE OF
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM U.P SYSTEM. PREVAILING SE BDRY LYR FLOW
SHOULD KEEP NEAR LAKE LOCATIONS COOLER THAN WELL INLAND.

TONIGHT...A MID LVL TROF ACCOMPANIED BY A SFC LOW WILL MOVE INTO
WRN MN BY EARLY THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL STRENGTHEN QUICKLY
AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE WRN CWA. 85H MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS FCST TO
RAPIDLY INCREASE INTO SWRN CWA BY 12Z AS LLJ INTENSIFIES. A WARM
FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO CTRL MN BY DAYBREAK WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
OCCURRING NORTH OF THE BDRY INTO THE SRN CWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS
TO LIKELY ACROSS SWRN CWA...AND SRN TIER OF WRN WI ZONES. ELEVATED
CAPE COMBINES WITH SOME INCREASE IN DEEP LYR SHEAR TO PRESENT AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL.

TOMORROW...WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE INTO SRN EDGE OF CWA AS SFC
LOW TRACKS EAST..AND POSSIBLY REFORMS FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF CWA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. WILL NEED TO MONITOR POTENTIAL OF STRONG/SVR
STORMS AS INSTABILITY INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY AS SUFFICIENT 0/6KM
SHEAR ADVECTS OVERHEAD. LATEST SREF FCST OF MLCAPES/EFFECTIVE
SHEAR SUGGEST SRN ZONES MAY BE AT RISK. ADDED FACTOR OF LOW LVL
BDRY MAY ENHANCE NEAR SFC CONVERGENCE AND LOW LVL HELICITY. HEAVY
RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY MAIN FORCING AREA AS IT SHIFTS NE INTO ERN CWA
DURING THE AFTN. FCST VALUES OF PWAT/WARM CLOUD DEPTH/LOW LVL JET
SUPPORT HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITHIN EMBEDDED CONVECTION. MAX TEMPS
IN WARM SECTOR NEAR LOWER ST CROIX VALLEY MAY REACH MID 80S.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

HE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH AXIS THAT BEGAN TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING...AND
THEN TAPERING OFF OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES FARTHER EAST.
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

FRIDAY MORNING SOME SHOWERS TO CONTINUE FOR THE EAST...BUT THESE TO
COME TO AN END DURING THE DAY AND THE EVENING SHOULD BE DRY OR
NEARLY DRY...AS WE WILL BE IN THE WEAK RIDGING IN BETWEEN THE
EXITING FRONT AND THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS.  CONDITIONS REMAIN MILD WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVERHEAD...SO FRIDAY HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S...AND
LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OUT OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY...AND WILL SWING OUT TOWARDS THE MIDWEST BEGINNING ON
SATURDAY.  CONVECTION FORMING ALONG A WARM FRONT DRAPED FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA AS EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD AFFECT THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT...THEN SWEEP ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW SWEEPS TOWARDS AND THEN ACROSS THE REGION.
MONDAY THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...WITH SOME LOWER
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THOUGH WE HAVE SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH TIMING AND TRACK...AM FAIRLY CONFIDENT IN A DECENT
RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE NORTHLAND THIS WEEKEND.  UNFORTUNATE FOR
VISITORS...BUT IT CANNOT BE HELPED.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN
SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THEN COOLING
OFF INTO THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  LOWS IN THE 50S
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL COOL OFF INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S FOR THE
EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

FOG THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TO CAUSE
HIGHLY VARIABLE VISIBILITIES IN FOG...AND HAVE CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR AT TIMES FOR SEVERAL TERMINALS. CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 13Z. MID CLOUDS BEGIN TO
APPROACH BRD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST AHEAD OF NEXT RAIN MAKER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  57  68  61 /  10  30  60  50
INL  77  56  71  58 /   0  20  60  50
BRD  80  62  82  62 /  10  70  70  20
HYR  75  59  80  64 /  10  50  60  40
ASX  72  54  75  62 /  10  20  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ018>020-
     026-034>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001-006-
     007.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE/GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 200537
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1237 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS IS ABOUT TO EXIT BURNETT COUNTY WI. HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. KEPT THE
MENTION OF FOG EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY PRECLUDE OVERALL
COVERAGE AND FORMATION OF FOG. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR TWEAKS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BEST INSTABILITY HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE FA. GRANTED...THERE IS
STILL SOME MUCAPE AROUND...ABOUT 500J/KG...NOT EXPECTING THUNDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT HOWEVER AND HAVE REMOVED. SHOWERS STILL
DOT THE LANDSCAPE AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AREAS OF FOG RE-DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY THUNDER FROM THE CONVECTION AS OF 300 PM...BUT STARTING TO SEE
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN AND SWRN COUNTIES BECOME MORE
CELLULAR IN NATURE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BL TO WARM AND AID IN
THE DE-STABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK T-STORMS
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN. ML CAPE VALUES INTO CENTRAL MN AND
W-CNTRL WI HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 500-700 J/KG AND WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SCT RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW WEAK ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND VERY SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. STRATO-CU FIELD WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT FROM NW-SE LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL HOWEVER KEEP AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT TO BE
QUITE A CHALLENGE WITH TEMPS REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NRN WI DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER...AND DROPPING INTO LOWER 50S OVER THE WRN COUNTIES WHERE
SKIES CLEAR OUT. AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FOG ONCE AGAIN.
RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE...CALM WINDS AND ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION WILL
ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY WED AND FINALLY BRINGS IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A WEAK WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL MN AND USHER IN A WARM AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. A VERY LIGHT E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP
TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEG COOLER INTO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ITS NW TO SE ORIENTATED WARM FRONT WILL CUT
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND SW WISCONSIN.

THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...PRIMARILY ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE.
THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON FAR NORTH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE GFS IS THE DRIER MODEL FOR THE
NORTHLAND...KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SUGGESTING
THE COOL AND DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP KEEP
THE PCPN AT BAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO BE MUCH MORE ROBUST
WITH PCPN FOR THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO THE GFS SINCE THEY LIFT THE
WARM FRONT MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND DO NOT SUGGEST THE COOLER EASTERLY
FLOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE RAINFALL. I LEANED ON THE
ECMWF/GEM/SREF MODELS SINCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 3
COMPARED TO THE GFS.

THERE ARE THEN MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THE GFS
FINALLY LIFT THE SOUTH DAKOTA LOW INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. THIS COULD BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE PRIMARILY DRY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE PLAINS OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THIS
TIME. COOLER AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT.

BEYOND THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...I PRIMARILY
LEANED ON A WIDE MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

FOG THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TO CAUSE
HIGHLY VARIABLE VISIBILITIES IN FOG...AND HAVE CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR AT TIMES FOR SEVERAL TERMINALS. CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 13Z. MID CLOUDS BEGIN TO
APPROACH BRD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST AHEAD OF NEXT RAIN MAKER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  70  60  76 /  20  60  30  30
INL  58  75  59  76 /  20  60  30  20
BRD  64  79  62  79 /  70  70  20  20
HYR  61  82  64  81 /  30  60  40  30
ASX  56  78  62  76 /  10  60  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...LE/GSF










000
FXUS63 KDLH 200537
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1237 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS IS ABOUT TO EXIT BURNETT COUNTY WI. HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. KEPT THE
MENTION OF FOG EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY PRECLUDE OVERALL
COVERAGE AND FORMATION OF FOG. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR TWEAKS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BEST INSTABILITY HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE FA. GRANTED...THERE IS
STILL SOME MUCAPE AROUND...ABOUT 500J/KG...NOT EXPECTING THUNDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT HOWEVER AND HAVE REMOVED. SHOWERS STILL
DOT THE LANDSCAPE AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AREAS OF FOG RE-DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY THUNDER FROM THE CONVECTION AS OF 300 PM...BUT STARTING TO SEE
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN AND SWRN COUNTIES BECOME MORE
CELLULAR IN NATURE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BL TO WARM AND AID IN
THE DE-STABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK T-STORMS
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN. ML CAPE VALUES INTO CENTRAL MN AND
W-CNTRL WI HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 500-700 J/KG AND WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SCT RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW WEAK ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND VERY SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. STRATO-CU FIELD WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT FROM NW-SE LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL HOWEVER KEEP AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT TO BE
QUITE A CHALLENGE WITH TEMPS REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NRN WI DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER...AND DROPPING INTO LOWER 50S OVER THE WRN COUNTIES WHERE
SKIES CLEAR OUT. AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FOG ONCE AGAIN.
RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE...CALM WINDS AND ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION WILL
ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY WED AND FINALLY BRINGS IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A WEAK WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL MN AND USHER IN A WARM AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. A VERY LIGHT E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP
TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEG COOLER INTO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ITS NW TO SE ORIENTATED WARM FRONT WILL CUT
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND SW WISCONSIN.

THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...PRIMARILY ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE.
THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON FAR NORTH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE GFS IS THE DRIER MODEL FOR THE
NORTHLAND...KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SUGGESTING
THE COOL AND DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP KEEP
THE PCPN AT BAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO BE MUCH MORE ROBUST
WITH PCPN FOR THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO THE GFS SINCE THEY LIFT THE
WARM FRONT MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND DO NOT SUGGEST THE COOLER EASTERLY
FLOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE RAINFALL. I LEANED ON THE
ECMWF/GEM/SREF MODELS SINCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 3
COMPARED TO THE GFS.

THERE ARE THEN MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THE GFS
FINALLY LIFT THE SOUTH DAKOTA LOW INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. THIS COULD BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE PRIMARILY DRY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE PLAINS OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THIS
TIME. COOLER AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT.

BEYOND THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...I PRIMARILY
LEANED ON A WIDE MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1237 AM CDT WED AUG 20 2014

FOG THE MAIN CONCERN OVERNIGHT. VARIABLE CLOUD COVER TO CAUSE
HIGHLY VARIABLE VISIBILITIES IN FOG...AND HAVE CONDITIONS VARYING
BETWEEN VFR AND LIFR AT TIMES FOR SEVERAL TERMINALS. CIGS EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE TO VFR RATHER QUICKLY AFTER 13Z. MID CLOUDS BEGIN TO
APPROACH BRD BY LATE IN THE FORECAST AHEAD OF NEXT RAIN MAKER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  70  60  76 /  20  60  30  30
INL  58  75  59  76 /  20  60  30  20
BRD  64  79  62  79 /  70  70  20  20
HYR  61  82  64  81 /  30  60  40  30
ASX  56  78  62  76 /  10  60  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...LE/GSF











000
FXUS63 KDLH 200200
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
900 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS IS ABOUT TO EXIT BURNETT COUNTY WI. HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. KEPT THE
MENTION OF FOG EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY PRECLUDE OVERALL
COVERAGE AND FORMATION OF FOG. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR TWEAKS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BEST INSTABILITY HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE FA. GRANTED...THERE IS
STILL SOME MUCAPE AROUND...ABOUT 500J/KG...NOT EXPECTING THUNDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT HOWEVER AND HAVE REMOVED. SHOWERS STILL
DOT THE LANDSCAPE AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AREAS OF FOG RE-DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY THUNDER FROM THE CONVECTION AS OF 300 PM...BUT STARTING TO SEE
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN AND SWRN COUNTIES BECOME MORE
CELLULAR IN NATURE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BL TO WARM AND AID IN
THE DE-STABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK T-STORMS
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN. ML CAPE VALUES INTO CENTRAL MN AND
W-CNTRL WI HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 500-700 J/KG AND WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SCT RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW WEAK ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND VERY SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. STRATO-CU FIELD WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT FROM NW-SE LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL HOWEVER KEEP AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT TO BE
QUITE A CHALLENGE WITH TEMPS REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NRN WI DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER...AND DROPPING INTO LOWER 50S OVER THE WRN COUNTIES WHERE
SKIES CLEAR OUT. AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FOG ONCE AGAIN.
RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE...CALM WINDS AND ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION WILL
ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY WED AND FINALLY BRINGS IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A WEAK WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL MN AND USHER IN A WARM AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. A VERY LIGHT E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP
TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEG COOLER INTO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ITS NW TO SE ORIENTATED WARM FRONT WILL CUT
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND SW WISCONSIN.

THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...PRIMARILY ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE.
THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON FAR NORTH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE GFS IS THE DRIER MODEL FOR THE
NORTHLAND...KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SUGGESTING
THE COOL AND DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP KEEP
THE PCPN AT BAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO BE MUCH MORE ROBUST
WITH PCPN FOR THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO THE GFS SINCE THEY LIFT THE
WARM FRONT MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND DO NOT SUGGEST THE COOLER EASTERLY
FLOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE RAINFALL. I LEANED ON THE
ECMWF/GEM/SREF MODELS SINCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 3
COMPARED TO THE GFS.

THERE ARE THEN MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THE GFS
FINALLY LIFT THE SOUTH DAKOTA LOW INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. THIS COULD BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE PRIMARILY DRY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE PLAINS OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THIS
TIME. COOLER AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT.

BEYOND THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...I PRIMARILY
LEANED ON A WIDE MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SHOWER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE TAFS.
OTHERWISE...MVFR TO VFR CIGS. THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS OF BR
FORMATION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIFR/VLIFR CIGS. VSBYS MAT STAY IN
THE IFR RANGE. A QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  72  58  70 /  20  10  20  60
INL  54  77  58  75 /  10  10  20  60
BRD  57  79  64  79 /  10  10  70  70
HYR  55  75  61  82 /  30  10  30  60
ASX  55  73  56  78 /  30  10  10  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 200200
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
900 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS IS ABOUT TO EXIT BURNETT COUNTY WI. HAVE
REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS THE REST OF THE NIGHT. KEPT THE
MENTION OF FOG EVEN THOUGH CLOUD COVER MAY PRECLUDE OVERALL
COVERAGE AND FORMATION OF FOG. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR TWEAKS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BEST INSTABILITY HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE FA. GRANTED...THERE IS
STILL SOME MUCAPE AROUND...ABOUT 500J/KG...NOT EXPECTING THUNDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT HOWEVER AND HAVE REMOVED. SHOWERS STILL
DOT THE LANDSCAPE AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AREAS OF FOG RE-DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY THUNDER FROM THE CONVECTION AS OF 300 PM...BUT STARTING TO SEE
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN AND SWRN COUNTIES BECOME MORE
CELLULAR IN NATURE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BL TO WARM AND AID IN
THE DE-STABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK T-STORMS
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN. ML CAPE VALUES INTO CENTRAL MN AND
W-CNTRL WI HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 500-700 J/KG AND WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SCT RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW WEAK ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND VERY SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. STRATO-CU FIELD WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT FROM NW-SE LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL HOWEVER KEEP AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT TO BE
QUITE A CHALLENGE WITH TEMPS REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NRN WI DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER...AND DROPPING INTO LOWER 50S OVER THE WRN COUNTIES WHERE
SKIES CLEAR OUT. AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FOG ONCE AGAIN.
RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE...CALM WINDS AND ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION WILL
ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY WED AND FINALLY BRINGS IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A WEAK WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL MN AND USHER IN A WARM AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. A VERY LIGHT E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP
TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEG COOLER INTO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ITS NW TO SE ORIENTATED WARM FRONT WILL CUT
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND SW WISCONSIN.

THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...PRIMARILY ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE.
THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON FAR NORTH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE GFS IS THE DRIER MODEL FOR THE
NORTHLAND...KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SUGGESTING
THE COOL AND DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP KEEP
THE PCPN AT BAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO BE MUCH MORE ROBUST
WITH PCPN FOR THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO THE GFS SINCE THEY LIFT THE
WARM FRONT MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND DO NOT SUGGEST THE COOLER EASTERLY
FLOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE RAINFALL. I LEANED ON THE
ECMWF/GEM/SREF MODELS SINCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 3
COMPARED TO THE GFS.

THERE ARE THEN MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THE GFS
FINALLY LIFT THE SOUTH DAKOTA LOW INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. THIS COULD BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE PRIMARILY DRY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE PLAINS OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THIS
TIME. COOLER AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT.

BEYOND THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...I PRIMARILY
LEANED ON A WIDE MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SHOWER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE TAFS.
OTHERWISE...MVFR TO VFR CIGS. THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS OF BR
FORMATION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIFR/VLIFR CIGS. VSBYS MAT STAY IN
THE IFR RANGE. A QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  72  58  70 /  20  10  20  60
INL  54  77  58  75 /  10  10  20  60
BRD  57  79  64  79 /  10  10  70  70
HYR  55  75  61  82 /  30  10  30  60
ASX  55  73  56  78 /  30  10  10  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 192324
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
624 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BEST INSTABILITY HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE FA. GRANTED...THERE IS
STILL SOME MUCAPE AROUND...ABOUT 500J/KG...NOT EXPECTING THUNDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT HOWEVER AND HAVE REMOVED. SHOWERS STILL
DOT THE LANDSCAPE AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AREAS OF FOG RE-DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY THUNDER FROM THE CONVECTION AS OF 300 PM...BUT STARTING TO SEE
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN AND SWRN COUNTIES BECOME MORE
CELLULAR IN NATURE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BL TO WARM AND AID IN
THE DE-STABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK T-STORMS
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN. ML CAPE VALUES INTO CENTRAL MN AND
W-CNTRL WI HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 500-700 J/KG AND WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SCT RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW WEAK ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND VERY SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. STRATO-CU FIELD WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT FROM NW-SE LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL HOWEVER KEEP AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT TO BE
QUITE A CHALLENGE WITH TEMPS REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NRN WI DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER...AND DROPPING INTO LOWER 50S OVER THE WRN COUNTIES WHERE
SKIES CLEAR OUT. AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FOG ONCE AGAIN.
RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE...CALM WINDS AND ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION WILL
ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY WED AND FINALLY BRINGS IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A WEAK WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL MN AND USHER IN A WARM AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. A VERY LIGHT E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP
TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEG COOLER INTO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ITS NW TO SE ORIENTATED WARM FRONT WILL CUT
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND SW WISCONSIN.

THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...PRIMARILY ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE.
THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON FAR NORTH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE GFS IS THE DRIER MODEL FOR THE
NORTHLAND...KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SUGGESTING
THE COOL AND DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP KEEP
THE PCPN AT BAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO BE MUCH MORE ROBUST
WITH PCPN FOR THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO THE GFS SINCE THEY LIFT THE
WARM FRONT MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND DO NOT SUGGEST THE COOLER EASTERLY
FLOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE RAINFALL. I LEANED ON THE
ECMWF/GEM/SREF MODELS SINCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 3
COMPARED TO THE GFS.

THERE ARE THEN MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THE GFS
FINALLY LIFT THE SOUTH DAKOTA LOW INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. THIS COULD BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE PRIMARILY DRY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE PLAINS OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THIS
TIME. COOLER AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT.

BEYOND THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...I PRIMARILY
LEANED ON A WIDE MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SHOWER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE TAFS.
OTHERWISE...MVFR TO VFR CIGS. THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS OF BR
FORMATION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIFR/VLIFR CIGS. VSBYS MAT STAY IN
THE IFR RANGE. A QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  72  58  70 /  20  10  20  60
INL  53  77  58  75 /  10  10  20  60
BRD  55  79  64  79 /  10  10  70  70
HYR  55  75  61  82 /  30  10  30  60
ASX  59  73  56  78 /  30  10  10  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 192324
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
624 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BEST INSTABILITY HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE FA. GRANTED...THERE IS
STILL SOME MUCAPE AROUND...ABOUT 500J/KG...NOT EXPECTING THUNDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT HOWEVER AND HAVE REMOVED. SHOWERS STILL
DOT THE LANDSCAPE AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AREAS OF FOG RE-DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY THUNDER FROM THE CONVECTION AS OF 300 PM...BUT STARTING TO SEE
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN AND SWRN COUNTIES BECOME MORE
CELLULAR IN NATURE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BL TO WARM AND AID IN
THE DE-STABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK T-STORMS
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN. ML CAPE VALUES INTO CENTRAL MN AND
W-CNTRL WI HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 500-700 J/KG AND WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SCT RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW WEAK ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND VERY SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. STRATO-CU FIELD WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT FROM NW-SE LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL HOWEVER KEEP AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT TO BE
QUITE A CHALLENGE WITH TEMPS REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NRN WI DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER...AND DROPPING INTO LOWER 50S OVER THE WRN COUNTIES WHERE
SKIES CLEAR OUT. AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FOG ONCE AGAIN.
RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE...CALM WINDS AND ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION WILL
ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY WED AND FINALLY BRINGS IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A WEAK WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL MN AND USHER IN A WARM AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. A VERY LIGHT E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP
TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEG COOLER INTO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ITS NW TO SE ORIENTATED WARM FRONT WILL CUT
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND SW WISCONSIN.

THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...PRIMARILY ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE.
THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON FAR NORTH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE GFS IS THE DRIER MODEL FOR THE
NORTHLAND...KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SUGGESTING
THE COOL AND DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP KEEP
THE PCPN AT BAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO BE MUCH MORE ROBUST
WITH PCPN FOR THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO THE GFS SINCE THEY LIFT THE
WARM FRONT MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND DO NOT SUGGEST THE COOLER EASTERLY
FLOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE RAINFALL. I LEANED ON THE
ECMWF/GEM/SREF MODELS SINCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 3
COMPARED TO THE GFS.

THERE ARE THEN MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THE GFS
FINALLY LIFT THE SOUTH DAKOTA LOW INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. THIS COULD BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE PRIMARILY DRY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE PLAINS OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THIS
TIME. COOLER AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT.

BEYOND THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...I PRIMARILY
LEANED ON A WIDE MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SHOWER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED AND HAVE REMOVED FROM THE TAFS.
OTHERWISE...MVFR TO VFR CIGS. THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS OF BR
FORMATION AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LIFR/VLIFR CIGS. VSBYS MAT STAY IN
THE IFR RANGE. A QUICK IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 13Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  72  58  70 /  20  10  20  60
INL  53  77  58  75 /  10  10  20  60
BRD  55  79  64  79 /  10  10  70  70
HYR  55  75  61  82 /  30  10  30  60
ASX  59  73  56  78 /  30  10  10  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 192202
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
502 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BEST INSTABILITY HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE FA. GRANTED...THERE IS
STILL SOME MUCAPE AROUND...ABOUT 500J/KG...NOT EXPECTING THUNDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT HOWEVER AND HAVE REMOVED. SHOWERS STILL
DOT THE LANDSCAPE AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AREAS OF FOG RE-DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY THUNDER FROM THE CONVECTION AS OF 300 PM...BUT STARTING TO SEE
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN AND SWRN COUNTIES BECOME MORE
CELLULAR IN NATURE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BL TO WARM AND AID IN
THE DE-STABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK T-STORMS
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN. ML CAPE VALUES INTO CENTRAL MN AND
W-CNTRL WI HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 500-700 J/KG AND WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SCT RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW WEAK ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND VERY SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. STRATO-CU FIELD WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT FROM NW-SE LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL HOWEVER KEEP AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT TO BE
QUITE A CHALLENGE WITH TEMPS REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NRN WI DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER...AND DROPPING INTO LOWER 50S OVER THE WRN COUNTIES WHERE
SKIES CLEAR OUT. AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FOG ONCE AGAIN.
RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE...CALM WINDS AND ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION WILL
ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY WED AND FINALLY BRINGS IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A WEAK WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL MN AND USHER IN A WARM AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. A VERY LIGHT E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP
TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEG COOLER INTO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ITS NW TO SE ORIENTATED WARM FRONT WILL CUT
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND SW WISCONSIN.

THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...PRIMARILY ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE.
THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON FAR NORTH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE GFS IS THE DRIER MODEL FOR THE
NORTHLAND...KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SUGGESTING
THE COOL AND DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP KEEP
THE PCPN AT BAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO BE MUCH MORE ROBUST
WITH PCPN FOR THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO THE GFS SINCE THEY LIFT THE
WARM FRONT MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND DO NOT SUGGEST THE COOLER EASTERLY
FLOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE RAINFALL. I LEANED ON THE
ECMWF/GEM/SREF MODELS SINCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 3
COMPARED TO THE GFS.

THERE ARE THEN MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THE GFS
FINALLY LIFT THE SOUTH DAKOTA LOW INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. THIS COULD BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE PRIMARILY DRY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE PLAINS OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THIS
TIME. COOLER AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT.

BEYOND THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...I PRIMARILY
LEANED ON A WIDE MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. THERE HAD
BEEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE CIGS LIFT AND BEGIN TO SCATTER IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL LIFTING AND SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO MORE MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD AFFECT THE KHYR/KDLH/KHIB AREAS
WITH BRIEF REDUCED VSBY. THERE COULD ALSO BE ISOLATED
THUNDER...BUT THE CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE VERY LOW...SO LEFT OUT
ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECASTS.

LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH FOG AND
VERY LOW CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  72  58  70 /  20  10  20  60
INL  53  77  58  75 /  10  10  20  60
BRD  55  79  64  79 /  10  10  70  70
HYR  55  75  61  82 /  30  10  30  60
ASX  59  73  56  78 /  30  10  10  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 192202
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
502 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 502 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

BEST INSTABILITY HAS MOVED AWAY FROM THE FA. GRANTED...THERE IS
STILL SOME MUCAPE AROUND...ABOUT 500J/KG...NOT EXPECTING THUNDER
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT HOWEVER AND HAVE REMOVED. SHOWERS STILL
DOT THE LANDSCAPE AND WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING.
REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AREAS OF FOG RE-DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY THUNDER FROM THE CONVECTION AS OF 300 PM...BUT STARTING TO SEE
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN AND SWRN COUNTIES BECOME MORE
CELLULAR IN NATURE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BL TO WARM AND AID IN
THE DE-STABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK T-STORMS
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN. ML CAPE VALUES INTO CENTRAL MN AND
W-CNTRL WI HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 500-700 J/KG AND WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SCT RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW WEAK ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND VERY SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. STRATO-CU FIELD WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT FROM NW-SE LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL HOWEVER KEEP AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT TO BE
QUITE A CHALLENGE WITH TEMPS REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NRN WI DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER...AND DROPPING INTO LOWER 50S OVER THE WRN COUNTIES WHERE
SKIES CLEAR OUT. AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FOG ONCE AGAIN.
RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE...CALM WINDS AND ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION WILL
ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY WED AND FINALLY BRINGS IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A WEAK WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL MN AND USHER IN A WARM AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. A VERY LIGHT E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP
TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEG COOLER INTO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ITS NW TO SE ORIENTATED WARM FRONT WILL CUT
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND SW WISCONSIN.

THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...PRIMARILY ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE.
THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON FAR NORTH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE GFS IS THE DRIER MODEL FOR THE
NORTHLAND...KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SUGGESTING
THE COOL AND DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP KEEP
THE PCPN AT BAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO BE MUCH MORE ROBUST
WITH PCPN FOR THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO THE GFS SINCE THEY LIFT THE
WARM FRONT MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND DO NOT SUGGEST THE COOLER EASTERLY
FLOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE RAINFALL. I LEANED ON THE
ECMWF/GEM/SREF MODELS SINCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 3
COMPARED TO THE GFS.

THERE ARE THEN MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THE GFS
FINALLY LIFT THE SOUTH DAKOTA LOW INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. THIS COULD BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE PRIMARILY DRY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE PLAINS OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THIS
TIME. COOLER AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT.

BEYOND THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...I PRIMARILY
LEANED ON A WIDE MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. THERE HAD
BEEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE CIGS LIFT AND BEGIN TO SCATTER IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL LIFTING AND SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO MORE MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD AFFECT THE KHYR/KDLH/KHIB AREAS
WITH BRIEF REDUCED VSBY. THERE COULD ALSO BE ISOLATED
THUNDER...BUT THE CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE VERY LOW...SO LEFT OUT
ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECASTS.

LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH FOG AND
VERY LOW CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  72  58  70 /  20  10  20  60
INL  53  77  58  75 /  10  10  20  60
BRD  55  79  64  79 /  10  10  70  70
HYR  55  75  61  82 /  30  10  30  60
ASX  59  73  56  78 /  30  10  10  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 192010
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AREAS OF FOG RE-DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY THUNDER FROM THE CONVECTION AS OF 300 PM...BUT STARTING TO SEE
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN AND SWRN COUNTIES BECOME MORE
CELLULAR IN NATURE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BL TO WARM AND AID IN
THE DE-STABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK T-STORMS
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN. ML CAPE VALUES INTO CENTRAL MN AND
W-CNTRL WI HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 500-700 J/KG AND WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SCT RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW WEAK ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND VERY SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. STRATO-CU FIELD WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT FROM NW-SE LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL HOWEVER KEEP AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT TO BE
QUITE A CHALLENGE WITH TEMPS REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NRN WI DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER...AND DROPPING INTO LOWER 50S OVER THE WRN COUNTIES WHERE
SKIES CLEAR OUT. AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FOG ONCE AGAIN.
RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE...CALM WINDS AND ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION WILL
ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY WED AND FINALLY BRINGS IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A WEAK WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL MN AND USHER IN A WARM AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. A VERY LIGHT E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP
TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEG COOLER INTO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ITS NW TO SE ORIENTATED WARM FRONT WILL CUT
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND SW WISCONSIN.

THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...PRIMARILY ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE.
THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON FAR NORTH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE GFS IS THE DRIER MODEL FOR THE
NORTHLAND...KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SUGGESTING
THE COOL AND DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP KEEP
THE PCPN AT BAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO BE MUCH MORE ROBUST
WITH PCPN FOR THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO THE GFS SINCE THEY LIFT THE
WARM FRONT MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND DO NOT SUGGEST THE COOLER EASTERLY
FLOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE RAINFALL. I LEANED ON THE
ECMWF/GEM/SREF MODELS SINCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 3
COMPARED TO THE GFS.

THERE ARE THEN MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THE GFS
FINALLY LIFT THE SOUTH DAKOTA LOW INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. THIS COULD BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE PRIMARILY DRY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE PLAINS OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THIS
TIME. COOLER AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT.

BEYOND THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...I PRIMARILY
LEANED ON A WIDE MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. THERE HAD
BEEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE CIGS LIFT AND BEGIN TO SCATTER IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL LIFTING AND SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO MORE MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD AFFECT THE KHYR/KDLH/KHIB AREAS
WITH BRIEF REDUCED VSBY. THERE COULD ALSO BE ISOLATED
THUNDER...BUT THE CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE VERY LOW...SO LEFT OUT
ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECASTS.

LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH FOG AND
VERY LOW CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  72  58  70 /  20  10  20  60
INL  53  77  58  75 /  10  10  20  60
BRD  55  79  64  79 /  10  10  70  70
HYR  55  75  61  82 /  30  10  30  60
ASX  59  73  56  78 /  30  10  10  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 192010
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ARE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM...WITH
AREAS OF FOG RE-DEVELOPING LATE IN THE EVENING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

CUTOFF UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW...FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS. HAVE YET TO SEE
ANY THUNDER FROM THE CONVECTION AS OF 300 PM...BUT STARTING TO SEE
THE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN AND SWRN COUNTIES BECOME MORE
CELLULAR IN NATURE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BL TO WARM AND AID IN
THE DE-STABILIZATION AND POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF WEAK T-STORMS
BEFORE THE SUN GOES DOWN. ML CAPE VALUES INTO CENTRAL MN AND
W-CNTRL WI HAVE RISEN TO AROUND 500-700 J/KG AND WILL COMBINE WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND FAIRLY DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SCT RAIN SHOWERS...AND A FEW WEAK ISOLATED STORMS INTO THE
EVENING. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND VERY SMALL HAIL ARE THE MAIN
THREATS. STRATO-CU FIELD WILL BEGIN TO MIX OUT FROM NW-SE LATER
THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL HOWEVER KEEP AN
ABUNDANT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL CAUSE TEMPERATURE FORECAST TONIGHT TO BE
QUITE A CHALLENGE WITH TEMPS REMAINING ELEVATED IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NRN WI DUE TO THE CLOUD
COVER...AND DROPPING INTO LOWER 50S OVER THE WRN COUNTIES WHERE
SKIES CLEAR OUT. AS THE TEMPERATURES FALL AFTER
MIDNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR FOG ONCE AGAIN.
RESIDUAL SFC MOISTURE...CALM WINDS AND ENOUGH OF AN INVERSION WILL
ALLOW FOG TO FORM AND PERSIST INTO WED MORNING. VSBYS WILL BE
REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE DAY WED AND FINALLY BRINGS IN A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER. A WEAK WAA REGIME WILL DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL MN AND USHER IN A WARM AIR MASS FROM THE SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. A VERY LIGHT E/NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP
TEMPS ONLY A FEW DEG COOLER INTO THE LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR MULTIPLE SYSTEMS TO BRING SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

AS OF WEDNESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI REGION...WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. THERE WILL BE A SURFACE LOW IN
CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. ITS NW TO SE ORIENTATED WARM FRONT WILL CUT
ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND SW WISCONSIN.

THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT...PRIMARILY ON HOW FAR NORTH
THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT AND HOW FAR EAST THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE.
THIS HAS IMPLICATIONS ON FAR NORTH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT
INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE GFS IS THE DRIER MODEL FOR THE
NORTHLAND...KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW IN SOUTH DAKOTA AND SUGGESTING
THE COOL AND DRIER EASTERLY FLOW OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL HELP KEEP
THE PCPN AT BAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO BE MUCH MORE ROBUST
WITH PCPN FOR THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO THE GFS SINCE THEY LIFT THE
WARM FRONT MUCH FARTHER NORTH AND DO NOT SUGGEST THE COOLER EASTERLY
FLOW WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE RAINFALL. I LEANED ON THE
ECMWF/GEM/SREF MODELS SINCE THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE 3
COMPARED TO THE GFS.

THERE ARE THEN MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES FOR LATE THIS WEEK. THE GFS
FINALLY LIFT THE SOUTH DAKOTA LOW INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY WITH ITS WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. THIS COULD BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAIN. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE PRIMARILY DRY
FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
MODELS DO SUGGEST THERE WILL BE A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA OR THE NORTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM COULD FORM SOMEWHERE IN THE PLAINS OR SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA
AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THIS
TIME. COOLER AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THAT SYSTEM AND ITS COLD FRONT.

BEYOND THE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT TIMEFRAME...I PRIMARILY
LEANED ON A WIDE MODEL BLEND DUE TO THE MAJOR MODEL DIFFERENCES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. THERE HAD
BEEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE CIGS LIFT AND BEGIN TO SCATTER IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL LIFTING AND SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO MORE MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD AFFECT THE KHYR/KDLH/KHIB AREAS
WITH BRIEF REDUCED VSBY. THERE COULD ALSO BE ISOLATED
THUNDER...BUT THE CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE VERY LOW...SO LEFT OUT
ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECASTS.

LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH FOG AND
VERY LOW CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  72  58  70 /  20  10  20  60
INL  53  77  58  75 /  10  10  20  60
BRD  55  79  64  79 /  10  10  70  70
HYR  55  75  61  82 /  30  10  30  60
ASX  59  73  56  78 /  30  10  10  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 191743 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1243 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG THIS MORNING AS MOST
OF THE FOG HAS MIXED OUT OR LIFTED. LOW CLOUDS AND DZ/-RA STILL
REMAIN AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...WITH STRATUS AND RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  IN
FACT...FOG WAS SO DENSE AROUND THE TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE THAT I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THIS IS KIND OF A NEAT ADVECTIVE/CONVERGENT PROCESS FOG INSTEAD OF
RADIATIVE PROCESSES...SO IT IS EVEN FORMING UNDER THE STRATUS INSTEAD
OF OUT IN THE CLEAR.  AREAS TO THE WEST ARE UNDER CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...BUT BETWEEN THE VERY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THEY MAY HAVE
ENOUGH LOCAL CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE FOG THERE AS WELL.  IT HAS
ALREADY FORMED FARTHER WEST...SO EXPECT IT THERE TOO.  SAME GOES FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE SURFACE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE
REGION.  THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...CONTINUING THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. TODAY...THE THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AROUND 8
AM...THOUGH I EXPECT WE WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
WELL INTO MID MORNING.  WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW STILL CLOSE
BY...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY...ALONG WITH A
DIURNAL UPSURGE IN SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.  MODELS ARE
INDICATING A CONVERGENCE AREA FROM AROUND SIREN EXTENDING
NORTH-NORTHWEST UP TO AROUND KHIB...WHICH SHOULD HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TODAY.  HIGHS
TODAY TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
A MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS.  TONIGHT THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
BEFORE SUNSET...AND EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO ALLOW RADIATIVE FOG TO
FORM TONIGHT.  WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST
THAT WE SHOULD STAY DRY OR MOSTLY DRY...AND WITH SOME CLEARING OF
THE CLOUD COVER.  HIGHS SHOULD BOUNCE WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 ONCE AGAIN.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WE WILL DEFINITELY BE IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY START OUT DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...BUT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. A NW TO SE BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE REACHED ALL
BUT THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND A FAIR PORTION OF NW WI.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BUT WILL INCREASE POPS
TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE BOTH FAIRLY HEAVY WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT BUT THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE EXHIBITING QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
LARGELY BE IN THE 70S...BUT TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO THE 60S FOR THE
MOST PART EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. THERE HAD
BEEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE CIGS LIFT AND BEGIN TO SCATTER IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL LIFTING AND SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO MORE MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD AFFECT THE KHYR/KDLH/KHIB AREAS
WITH BRIEF REDUCED VSBY. THERE COULD ALSO BE ISOLATED
THUNDER...BUT THE CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE VERY LOW...SO LEFT OUT
ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECASTS.

LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH FOG AND
VERY LOW CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  56  72  58 /  50  20  10  30
INL  73  54  78  58 /  20  10  10  20
BRD  75  58  80  64 /  20  10  10  70
HYR  71  56  77  61 /  50  30  10  30
ASX  70  55  73  57 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 191743 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1243 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG THIS MORNING AS MOST
OF THE FOG HAS MIXED OUT OR LIFTED. LOW CLOUDS AND DZ/-RA STILL
REMAIN AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...WITH STRATUS AND RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  IN
FACT...FOG WAS SO DENSE AROUND THE TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE THAT I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THIS IS KIND OF A NEAT ADVECTIVE/CONVERGENT PROCESS FOG INSTEAD OF
RADIATIVE PROCESSES...SO IT IS EVEN FORMING UNDER THE STRATUS INSTEAD
OF OUT IN THE CLEAR.  AREAS TO THE WEST ARE UNDER CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...BUT BETWEEN THE VERY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THEY MAY HAVE
ENOUGH LOCAL CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE FOG THERE AS WELL.  IT HAS
ALREADY FORMED FARTHER WEST...SO EXPECT IT THERE TOO.  SAME GOES FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE SURFACE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE
REGION.  THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...CONTINUING THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. TODAY...THE THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AROUND 8
AM...THOUGH I EXPECT WE WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
WELL INTO MID MORNING.  WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW STILL CLOSE
BY...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY...ALONG WITH A
DIURNAL UPSURGE IN SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.  MODELS ARE
INDICATING A CONVERGENCE AREA FROM AROUND SIREN EXTENDING
NORTH-NORTHWEST UP TO AROUND KHIB...WHICH SHOULD HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TODAY.  HIGHS
TODAY TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
A MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS.  TONIGHT THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
BEFORE SUNSET...AND EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO ALLOW RADIATIVE FOG TO
FORM TONIGHT.  WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST
THAT WE SHOULD STAY DRY OR MOSTLY DRY...AND WITH SOME CLEARING OF
THE CLOUD COVER.  HIGHS SHOULD BOUNCE WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 ONCE AGAIN.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WE WILL DEFINITELY BE IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY START OUT DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...BUT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. A NW TO SE BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE REACHED ALL
BUT THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND A FAIR PORTION OF NW WI.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BUT WILL INCREASE POPS
TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE BOTH FAIRLY HEAVY WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT BUT THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE EXHIBITING QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
LARGELY BE IN THE 70S...BUT TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO THE 60S FOR THE
MOST PART EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS
DUE TO EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUD COVER EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. THERE HAD
BEEN GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE CIGS LIFT AND BEGIN TO SCATTER IN SOME AREAS.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE ADDITIONAL LIFTING AND SCATTERING THIS
AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A TRANSITION TO MORE MVFR AND
VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL
REDEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD AFFECT THE KHYR/KDLH/KHIB AREAS
WITH BRIEF REDUCED VSBY. THERE COULD ALSO BE ISOLATED
THUNDER...BUT THE CHANCES OF THUNDER ARE VERY LOW...SO LEFT OUT
ANY THUNDER IN THE FORECASTS.

LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP TONIGHT WITH FOG AND
VERY LOW CIGS. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  71  56  72  58 /  50  20  10  30
INL  73  54  78  58 /  20  10  10  20
BRD  75  58  80  64 /  20  10  10  70
HYR  71  56  77  61 /  50  30  10  30
ASX  70  55  73  57 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI









000
FXUS63 KDLH 191523 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1023 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG THIS MORNING AS MOST
OF THE FOG HAS MIXED OUT OR LIFTED. LOW CLOUDS AND DZ/-RA STILL
REMAIN AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...WITH STRATUS AND RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  IN
FACT...FOG WAS SO DENSE AROUND THE TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE THAT I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THIS IS KIND OF A NEAT ADVECTIVE/CONVERGENT PROCESS FOG INSTEAD OF
RADIATIVE PROCESSES...SO IT IS EVEN FORMING UNDER THE STRATUS INSTEAD
OF OUT IN THE CLEAR.  AREAS TO THE WEST ARE UNDER CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...BUT BETWEEN THE VERY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THEY MAY HAVE
ENOUGH LOCAL CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE FOG THERE AS WELL.  IT HAS
ALREADY FORMED FARTHER WEST...SO EXPECT IT THERE TOO.  SAME GOES FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE SURFACE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE
REGION.  THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...CONTINUING THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. TODAY...THE THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AROUND 8
AM...THOUGH I EXPECT WE WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
WELL INTO MID MORNING.  WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW STILL CLOSE
BY...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY...ALONG WITH A
DIURNAL UPSURGE IN SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.  MODELS ARE
INDICATING A CONVERGENCE AREA FROM AROUND SIREN EXTENDING
NORTH-NORTHWEST UP TO AROUND KHIB...WHICH SHOULD HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TODAY.  HIGHS
TODAY TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
A MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS.  TONIGHT THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
BEFORE SUNSET...AND EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO ALLOW RADIATIVE FOG TO
FORM TONIGHT.  WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST
THAT WE SHOULD STAY DRY OR MOSTLY DRY...AND WITH SOME CLEARING OF
THE CLOUD COVER.  HIGHS SHOULD BOUNCE WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 ONCE AGAIN.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WE WILL DEFINITELY BE IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY START OUT DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...BUT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. A NW TO SE BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE REACHED ALL
BUT THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND A FAIR PORTION OF NW WI.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BUT WILL INCREASE POPS
TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE BOTH FAIRLY HEAVY WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT BUT THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE EXHIBITING QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
LARGELY BE IN THE 70S...BUT TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO THE 60S FOR THE
MOST PART EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING BUT SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  56  72  58 /  50  20  10  30
INL  72  54  78  58 /  20  10  10  20
BRD  75  58  80  64 /  20  10  10  70
HYR  71  56  77  61 /  50  30  10  30
ASX  69  55  73  57 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 191523 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1023 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE MENTION OF FOG THIS MORNING AS MOST
OF THE FOG HAS MIXED OUT OR LIFTED. LOW CLOUDS AND DZ/-RA STILL
REMAIN AND WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS STILL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE THE REST OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...WITH STRATUS AND RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  IN
FACT...FOG WAS SO DENSE AROUND THE TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE THAT I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THIS IS KIND OF A NEAT ADVECTIVE/CONVERGENT PROCESS FOG INSTEAD OF
RADIATIVE PROCESSES...SO IT IS EVEN FORMING UNDER THE STRATUS INSTEAD
OF OUT IN THE CLEAR.  AREAS TO THE WEST ARE UNDER CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...BUT BETWEEN THE VERY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THEY MAY HAVE
ENOUGH LOCAL CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE FOG THERE AS WELL.  IT HAS
ALREADY FORMED FARTHER WEST...SO EXPECT IT THERE TOO.  SAME GOES FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE SURFACE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE
REGION.  THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...CONTINUING THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. TODAY...THE THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AROUND 8
AM...THOUGH I EXPECT WE WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
WELL INTO MID MORNING.  WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW STILL CLOSE
BY...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY...ALONG WITH A
DIURNAL UPSURGE IN SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.  MODELS ARE
INDICATING A CONVERGENCE AREA FROM AROUND SIREN EXTENDING
NORTH-NORTHWEST UP TO AROUND KHIB...WHICH SHOULD HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TODAY.  HIGHS
TODAY TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
A MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS.  TONIGHT THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
BEFORE SUNSET...AND EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO ALLOW RADIATIVE FOG TO
FORM TONIGHT.  WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST
THAT WE SHOULD STAY DRY OR MOSTLY DRY...AND WITH SOME CLEARING OF
THE CLOUD COVER.  HIGHS SHOULD BOUNCE WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 ONCE AGAIN.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WE WILL DEFINITELY BE IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY START OUT DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...BUT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. A NW TO SE BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE REACHED ALL
BUT THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND A FAIR PORTION OF NW WI.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BUT WILL INCREASE POPS
TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE BOTH FAIRLY HEAVY WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT BUT THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE EXHIBITING QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
LARGELY BE IN THE 70S...BUT TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO THE 60S FOR THE
MOST PART EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING BUT SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  56  72  58 /  50  20  10  30
INL  72  54  78  58 /  20  10  10  20
BRD  75  58  80  64 /  20  10  10  70
HYR  71  56  77  61 /  50  30  10  30
ASX  69  55  73  57 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 191202
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
702 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...WITH STRATUS AND RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  IN
FACT...FOG WAS SO DENSE AROUND THE TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE THAT I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THIS IS KIND OF A NEAT ADVECTIVE/CONVERGENT PROCESS FOG INSTEAD OF
RADIATIVE PROCESSES...SO IT IS EVEN FORMING UNDER THE STRATUS INSTEAD
OF OUT IN THE CLEAR.  AREAS TO THE WEST ARE UNDER CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...BUT BETWEEN THE VERY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THEY MAY HAVE
ENOUGH LOCAL CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE FOG THERE AS WELL.  IT HAS
ALREADY FORMED FARTHER WEST...SO EXPECT IT THERE TOO.  SAME GOES FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE SURFACE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE
REGION.  THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...CONTINUING THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. TODAY...THE THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AROUND 8
AM...THOUGH I EXPECT WE WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
WELL INTO MID MORNING.  WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW STILL CLOSE
BY...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY...ALONG WITH A
DIURNAL UPSURGE IN SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.  MODELS ARE
INDICATING A CONVERGENCE AREA FROM AROUND SIREN EXTENDING
NORTH-NORTHWEST UP TO AROUND KHIB...WHICH SHOULD HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TODAY.  HIGHS
TODAY TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
A MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS.  TONIGHT THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
BEFORE SUNSET...AND EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO ALLOW RADIATIVE FOG TO
FORM TONIGHT.  WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST
THAT WE SHOULD STAY DRY OR MOSTLY DRY...AND WITH SOME CLEARING OF
THE CLOUD COVER.  HIGHS SHOULD BOUNCE WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 ONCE AGAIN.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WE WILL DEFINITELY BE IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY START OUT DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...BUT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. A NW TO SE BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE REACHED ALL
BUT THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND A FAIR PORTION OF NW WI.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BUT WILL INCREASE POPS
TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE BOTH FAIRLY HEAVY WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT BUT THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE EXHIBITING QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
LARGELY BE IN THE 70S...BUT TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO THE 60S FOR THE
MOST PART EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING BUT SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  56  72  58 /  50  30  10  30
INL  74  53  78  58 /  20  10  10  20
BRD  75  57  80  64 /  20  10  10  70
HYR  72  55  77  61 /  60  30  10  30
ASX  69  54  73  57 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ025-
     033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 191202
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
702 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...WITH STRATUS AND RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  IN
FACT...FOG WAS SO DENSE AROUND THE TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE THAT I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THIS IS KIND OF A NEAT ADVECTIVE/CONVERGENT PROCESS FOG INSTEAD OF
RADIATIVE PROCESSES...SO IT IS EVEN FORMING UNDER THE STRATUS INSTEAD
OF OUT IN THE CLEAR.  AREAS TO THE WEST ARE UNDER CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...BUT BETWEEN THE VERY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THEY MAY HAVE
ENOUGH LOCAL CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE FOG THERE AS WELL.  IT HAS
ALREADY FORMED FARTHER WEST...SO EXPECT IT THERE TOO.  SAME GOES FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE SURFACE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE
REGION.  THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...CONTINUING THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. TODAY...THE THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AROUND 8
AM...THOUGH I EXPECT WE WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
WELL INTO MID MORNING.  WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW STILL CLOSE
BY...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY...ALONG WITH A
DIURNAL UPSURGE IN SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.  MODELS ARE
INDICATING A CONVERGENCE AREA FROM AROUND SIREN EXTENDING
NORTH-NORTHWEST UP TO AROUND KHIB...WHICH SHOULD HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TODAY.  HIGHS
TODAY TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
A MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS.  TONIGHT THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
BEFORE SUNSET...AND EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO ALLOW RADIATIVE FOG TO
FORM TONIGHT.  WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST
THAT WE SHOULD STAY DRY OR MOSTLY DRY...AND WITH SOME CLEARING OF
THE CLOUD COVER.  HIGHS SHOULD BOUNCE WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 ONCE AGAIN.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WE WILL DEFINITELY BE IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY START OUT DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...BUT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. A NW TO SE BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE REACHED ALL
BUT THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND A FAIR PORTION OF NW WI.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BUT WILL INCREASE POPS
TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE BOTH FAIRLY HEAVY WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT BUT THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE EXHIBITING QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
LARGELY BE IN THE 70S...BUT TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO THE 60S FOR THE
MOST PART EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 654 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA THIS MORNING BUT SOME MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN
EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON. FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  56  72  58 /  50  30  10  30
INL  74  53  78  58 /  20  10  10  20
BRD  75  57  80  64 /  20  10  10  70
HYR  72  55  77  61 /  60  30  10  30
ASX  69  54  73  57 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ025-
     033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 190923
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
423 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...WITH STRATUS AND RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  IN
FACT...FOG WAS SO DENSE AROUND THE TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE THAT I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THIS IS KIND OF A NEAT ADVECTIVE/CONVERGENT PROCESS FOG INSTEAD OF
RADIATIVE PROCESSES...SO IT IS EVEN FORMING UNDER THE STRATUS INTEAD
OF OUT IN THE CLEAR.  AREAS TO THE WEST ARE UNDER CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...BUT BETWEEN THE VERY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THEY MAY HAVE
ENOUGH LOCAL CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE FOG THERE AS WELL.  IT HAS
ALREADY FORMED FARTHER WEST...SO EXPECT IT THERE TOO.  SAME GOES FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE SURFACE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE
REGION.  THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...CONTINUING THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. TODAY...THE THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AROUND 8
AM...THOUGH I EXPECT WE WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
WELL INTO MID MORNING.  WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW STILL CLOSE
BY...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY...ALONG WITH A
DIURNAL UPSURGE IN SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.  MODELS ARE
INDICATING A CONVERGENCE AREA FROM AROUND SIREN EXTENING
NORTH-NORTHWEST UP TO AROUND KHIB...WHICH SHOULD HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TODAY.  HIGHS
TODAY TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
A MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS.  TONIGHT THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
BEFORE SUNSET...AND EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO ALLOW RADIATIVE FOG TO
FORM TONIGHT.  WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST
THAT WE SHOULD STAY DRY OR MOSTLY DRY...AND WITH SOME CLEARING OF
THE CLOUD COVER.  HIGHS SHOULD BOUNCE WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 ONCE AGAIN.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WE WILL DEFINITELY BE IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY START OUT DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...BUT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. A NW TO SE BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE REACHED ALL
BUT THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND A FAIR PORTION OF NW WI.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BUT WILL INCREASE POPS
TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE BOTH FAIRLY HEAVY WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT BUT THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE EXHIBITING QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
LARGELY BE IN THE 70S...BUT TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO THE 60S FOR THE
MOST PART EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF
FOG ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. BY 15Z...AN IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS FORECAST. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY MID DAY. SOME
CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME PATCHY BR MAY
OCCUR AFTER 00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  56  72  58 /  50  30  10  30
INL  74  53  78  58 /  20  10  10  20
BRD  75  57  80  64 /  20  10  10  70
HYR  72  55  77  61 /  60  30  10  30
ASX  69  54  73  57 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ025-
     033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 190923
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
423 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN UPPER MICHIGAN IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...WITH STRATUS AND RAIN
SHOWERS/DRIZZLE AND FOG OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  IN
FACT...FOG WAS SO DENSE AROUND THE TWIN PORTS AND SOUTH ALONG AND
EAST OF THE INTERSTATE THAT I HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY.
THIS IS KIND OF A NEAT ADVECTIVE/CONVERGENT PROCESS FOG INSTEAD OF
RADIATIVE PROCESSES...SO IT IS EVEN FORMING UNDER THE STRATUS INTEAD
OF OUT IN THE CLEAR.  AREAS TO THE WEST ARE UNDER CLOUD COVER AS
WELL...BUT BETWEEN THE VERY LOW DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS THEY MAY HAVE
ENOUGH LOCAL CONVERGENCE TO GENERATE FOG THERE AS WELL.  IT HAS
ALREADY FORMED FARTHER WEST...SO EXPECT IT THERE TOO.  SAME GOES FOR
PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THE SURFACE LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SLOW MOVING UPPER LOW OVER THE
REGION.  THIS UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY MOVE EAST TODAY
THROUGH TOMORROW...CONTINUING THE CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE AREA ALONG
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. TODAY...THE THE FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE
ENOUGH TO ALLOW THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AROUND 8
AM...THOUGH I EXPECT WE WILL HAVE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS LINGERING
WELL INTO MID MORNING.  WITH THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW STILL CLOSE
BY...EXPECT THE CLOUDS TO LINGER OVER THE AREA TODAY...ALONG WITH A
DIURNAL UPSURGE IN SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS.  MODELS ARE
INDICATING A CONVERGENCE AREA FROM AROUND SIREN EXTENING
NORTH-NORTHWEST UP TO AROUND KHIB...WHICH SHOULD HAVE A HIGHER
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND MORE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER TODAY.  HIGHS
TODAY TO BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH A LITTLE LESS CLOUD COVER AND
A MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS.  TONIGHT THE SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH
BEFORE SUNSET...AND EXPECT SOME CLEARING TO ALLOW RADIATIVE FOG TO
FORM TONIGHT.  WEDNESDAY THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED FAR ENOUGH EAST
THAT WE SHOULD STAY DRY OR MOSTLY DRY...AND WITH SOME CLEARING OF
THE CLOUD COVER.  HIGHS SHOULD BOUNCE WELL UP INTO THE 70S TO NEAR
80 ONCE AGAIN.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 421 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

WE WILL DEFINITELY BE IN A FAIRLY ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. THE NIGHT WILL LIKELY START OUT DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...BUT THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING
THE NIGHT. A NW TO SE BAND OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD HAVE REACHED ALL
BUT THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 12Z THURSDAY AND A FAIR PORTION OF NW WI.
THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN TIMING...BUT WILL INCREASE POPS
TO LIKELY RANGE FOR THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA WITH SLIGHT TO CHANCE
POPS FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA. WILL GO WITH LIKELY POPS FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY...AS THE SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST
THROUGH THE AREA. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE BOTH FAIRLY HEAVY WITH
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL TRY TO DRY
THINGS OUT BUT THERE WILL LIKELY STILL BE SOME SHOWERS LINGERING
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING INTO THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS ARE EXHIBITING QUITE A FEW
DIFFERENCES FURTHER OUT IN THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD. HIGHS WILL
LARGELY BE IN THE 70S...BUT TEMPS SHOULD COOL TO THE 60S FOR THE
MOST PART EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF
FOG ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. BY 15Z...AN IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS FORECAST. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY MID DAY. SOME
CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME PATCHY BR MAY
OCCUR AFTER 00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  56  72  58 /  50  30  10  30
INL  74  53  78  58 /  20  10  10  20
BRD  75  57  80  64 /  20  10  10  70
HYR  72  55  77  61 /  60  30  10  30
ASX  69  54  73  57 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ025-
     033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP









000
FXUS63 KDLH 190554
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1254 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

A FEW SHOWERS NEAR GPZ AND HIB TO NEAR DLH. OTHERWISE...BULK OF
THE RAIN HAS MOVED INTO NW WI. LIGHTNING LIMITED TO SOUTHERN TIER
OF WI ZONES. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS AND
ADD MORE FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE THUNDER THREAT HAS MOVED INTO NW WI FOR THE NIGHT AND HAVE
REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION FROM NE MN. REST OF THE FORECAST STILL
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS AGAIN TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A PERSISTENT EAST WIND.

LARGE SCALE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL S/W
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...CO-LOCATED WITH AN EWD
PROGRESSING SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED N-S OVER WRN MN.
AS THE TROUGH AND SFC FRONT SWEEP TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE CLOUD COVER ATTEMPTING TO MIX OUT OVER E AND N-CENTRAL
MN. IF THIS CLEARING CONTINUES PRIOR TO FROPA...THE BL WILL LIKELY
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM AROUND PINE
RIVER TO HINCKLEY TO PHILLIPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING
ELEVATED AROUND THE SRN AND SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MINIMAL...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PULSE TYPE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AS WELL...WHICH COULD ALLOW
THE STORMS TO DROP HEAVY AMTS OF RAINFALL OVER A PERIOD OF TIME. A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND SAW SATURATING RAINS LAST
NIGHT...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOST OF THE AIR MASS AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE COOLER AND MORE STABLE...AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
SCT SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ANYWHERE IN THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLLAPSES TONIGHT AND AN ELEVATED INVERSION
SETS UP AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND A MOIST
NEAR-SFC LAYER AND CALM WINDS WILL PRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS
THE DEEP LAYER MIXING BEGINS.

A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TAKE A FAVORABLE PATH
THAT WILL KEEP THE DOMINANT WIND FLOW FROM THE EAST OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ALLOW THE COOL WIND REGIME TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE. THE WIND OFF THE LAKE SHOULD BE WEAK ON TUE... BUT
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS AROUND THE LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND INLAND
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE COOL NLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS COULD BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD...HOWEVER LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BE GENERALLY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK COULD FEATURE A
COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS THAT COULD AMOUNT TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.

AS OF TUESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS.

THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. INLAND
AREAS WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY...BUT THE EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS CLOSE TO THE LAKE SOMEWHAT COOL.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE TROUGH
AND WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THAT TIME. INCREASED PCPN CHANCES BECAUSE OF
THIS. THE SURFACE FRONT COULD STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AS EASTERLY INCREASE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEEP AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN THAN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON TIMING BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THAT A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO CANADA DURING THE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND RESULT IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA APPEAR TO BE MORE AT RISK OF
THIS HEAVY RAIN THAN THE SE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM...BUT DUE TO THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND.

COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF
FOG ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. BY 15Z...AN IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS FORECAST. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY MID DAY. SOME
CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME PATCHY BR MAY
OCCUR AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  71  58  70 /  10  10  30  60
INL  55  78  58  74 /  10  10  20  60
BRD  58  80  63  80 /  10  10  60  60
HYR  55  77  61  81 /  20   0  20  60
ASX  55  71  57  76 /  20  10  20  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ025-
     033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001-006-
     007.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 190554
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1254 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

A FEW SHOWERS NEAR GPZ AND HIB TO NEAR DLH. OTHERWISE...BULK OF
THE RAIN HAS MOVED INTO NW WI. LIGHTNING LIMITED TO SOUTHERN TIER
OF WI ZONES. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS AND
ADD MORE FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE THUNDER THREAT HAS MOVED INTO NW WI FOR THE NIGHT AND HAVE
REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION FROM NE MN. REST OF THE FORECAST STILL
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS AGAIN TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A PERSISTENT EAST WIND.

LARGE SCALE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL S/W
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...CO-LOCATED WITH AN EWD
PROGRESSING SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED N-S OVER WRN MN.
AS THE TROUGH AND SFC FRONT SWEEP TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE CLOUD COVER ATTEMPTING TO MIX OUT OVER E AND N-CENTRAL
MN. IF THIS CLEARING CONTINUES PRIOR TO FROPA...THE BL WILL LIKELY
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM AROUND PINE
RIVER TO HINCKLEY TO PHILLIPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING
ELEVATED AROUND THE SRN AND SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MINIMAL...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PULSE TYPE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AS WELL...WHICH COULD ALLOW
THE STORMS TO DROP HEAVY AMTS OF RAINFALL OVER A PERIOD OF TIME. A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND SAW SATURATING RAINS LAST
NIGHT...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOST OF THE AIR MASS AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE COOLER AND MORE STABLE...AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
SCT SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ANYWHERE IN THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLLAPSES TONIGHT AND AN ELEVATED INVERSION
SETS UP AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND A MOIST
NEAR-SFC LAYER AND CALM WINDS WILL PRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS
THE DEEP LAYER MIXING BEGINS.

A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TAKE A FAVORABLE PATH
THAT WILL KEEP THE DOMINANT WIND FLOW FROM THE EAST OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ALLOW THE COOL WIND REGIME TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE. THE WIND OFF THE LAKE SHOULD BE WEAK ON TUE... BUT
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS AROUND THE LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND INLAND
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE COOL NLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS COULD BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD...HOWEVER LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BE GENERALLY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK COULD FEATURE A
COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS THAT COULD AMOUNT TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.

AS OF TUESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS.

THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. INLAND
AREAS WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY...BUT THE EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS CLOSE TO THE LAKE SOMEWHAT COOL.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE TROUGH
AND WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THAT TIME. INCREASED PCPN CHANCES BECAUSE OF
THIS. THE SURFACE FRONT COULD STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AS EASTERLY INCREASE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEEP AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN THAN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON TIMING BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THAT A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO CANADA DURING THE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND RESULT IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA APPEAR TO BE MORE AT RISK OF
THIS HEAVY RAIN THAN THE SE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM...BUT DUE TO THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND.

COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z...AREAS OF
FOG ARE EXPECTED WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. BY 15Z...AN IMPROVEMENT
TO VFR IS FORECAST. VCSH ARE POSSIBLE AGAIN BY MID DAY. SOME
CLEARING WILL COMMENCE BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT SOME PATCHY BR MAY
OCCUR AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  71  58  70 /  10  10  30  60
INL  55  78  58  74 /  10  10  20  60
BRD  58  80  63  80 /  10  10  60  60
HYR  55  77  61  81 /  20   0  20  60
ASX  55  71  57  76 /  20  10  20  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ025-
     033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001-006-
     007.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 190327
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1027 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

A FEW SHOWERS NEAR GPZ AND HIB TO NEAR DLH. OTHERWISE...BULK OF
THE RAIN HAS MOVED INTO NW WI. LIGHTNING LIMITED TO SOUTHERN TIER
OF WI ZONES. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS AND
ADD MORE FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE THUNDER THREAT HAS MOVED INTO NW WI FOR THE NIGHT AND HAVE
REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION FROM NE MN. REST OF THE FORECAST STILL
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS AGAIN TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A PERSISTENT EAST WIND.

LARGE SCALE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL S/W
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...CO-LOCATED WITH AN EWD
PROGRESSING SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED N-S OVER WRN MN.
AS THE TROUGH AND SFC FRONT SWEEP TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE CLOUD COVER ATTEMPTING TO MIX OUT OVER E AND N-CENTRAL
MN. IF THIS CLEARING CONTINUES PRIOR TO FROPA...THE BL WILL LIKELY
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM AROUND PINE
RIVER TO HINCKLEY TO PHILLIPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING
ELEVATED AROUND THE SRN AND SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MINIMAL...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PULSE TYPE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AS WELL...WHICH COULD ALLOW
THE STORMS TO DROP HEAVY AMTS OF RAINFALL OVER A PERIOD OF TIME. A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND SAW SATURATING RAINS LAST
NIGHT...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOST OF THE AIR MASS AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE COOLER AND MORE STABLE...AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
SCT SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ANYWHERE IN THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLLAPSES TONIGHT AND AN ELEVATED INVERSION
SETS UP AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND A MOIST
NEAR-SFC LAYER AND CALM WINDS WILL PRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS
THE DEEP LAYER MIXING BEGINS.

A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TAKE A FAVORABLE PATH
THAT WILL KEEP THE DOMINANT WIND FLOW FROM THE EAST OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ALLOW THE COOL WIND REGIME TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE. THE WIND OFF THE LAKE SHOULD BE WEAK ON TUE... BUT
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS AROUND THE LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND INLAND
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE COOL NLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS COULD BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD...HOWEVER LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BE GENERALLY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK COULD FEATURE A
COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS THAT COULD AMOUNT TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.

AS OF TUESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS.

THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. INLAND
AREAS WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY...BUT THE EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS CLOSE TO THE LAKE SOMEWHAT COOL.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE TROUGH
AND WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THAT TIME. INCREASED PCPN CHANCES BECAUSE OF
THIS. THE SURFACE FRONT COULD STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AS EASTERLY INCREASE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEEP AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN THAN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON TIMING BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THAT A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO CANADA DURING THE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND RESULT IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA APPEAR TO BE MORE AT RISK OF
THIS HEAVY RAIN THAN THE SE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM...BUT DUE TO THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND.

COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AS UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE TERMINALS...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO AFFECT ALL BUT INL THROUGH 06Z. AREAS OF BR ARE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS 06Z WITH IFR/LIFR. CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 15Z...BUT MORE SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF ALL SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  66  56  71 /  80  50  10  10
INL  56  74  55  78 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  60  75  58  80 /  50  30  10  10
HYR  60  71  55  77 /  70  50  20   0
ASX  59  65  55  71 /  60  70  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 190327
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1027 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1024 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

A FEW SHOWERS NEAR GPZ AND HIB TO NEAR DLH. OTHERWISE...BULK OF
THE RAIN HAS MOVED INTO NW WI. LIGHTNING LIMITED TO SOUTHERN TIER
OF WI ZONES. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TRENDS AND
ADD MORE FOG.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE THUNDER THREAT HAS MOVED INTO NW WI FOR THE NIGHT AND HAVE
REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION FROM NE MN. REST OF THE FORECAST STILL
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS AGAIN TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A PERSISTENT EAST WIND.

LARGE SCALE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL S/W
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...CO-LOCATED WITH AN EWD
PROGRESSING SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED N-S OVER WRN MN.
AS THE TROUGH AND SFC FRONT SWEEP TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE CLOUD COVER ATTEMPTING TO MIX OUT OVER E AND N-CENTRAL
MN. IF THIS CLEARING CONTINUES PRIOR TO FROPA...THE BL WILL LIKELY
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM AROUND PINE
RIVER TO HINCKLEY TO PHILLIPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING
ELEVATED AROUND THE SRN AND SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MINIMAL...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PULSE TYPE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AS WELL...WHICH COULD ALLOW
THE STORMS TO DROP HEAVY AMTS OF RAINFALL OVER A PERIOD OF TIME. A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND SAW SATURATING RAINS LAST
NIGHT...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOST OF THE AIR MASS AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE COOLER AND MORE STABLE...AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
SCT SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ANYWHERE IN THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLLAPSES TONIGHT AND AN ELEVATED INVERSION
SETS UP AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND A MOIST
NEAR-SFC LAYER AND CALM WINDS WILL PRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS
THE DEEP LAYER MIXING BEGINS.

A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TAKE A FAVORABLE PATH
THAT WILL KEEP THE DOMINANT WIND FLOW FROM THE EAST OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ALLOW THE COOL WIND REGIME TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE. THE WIND OFF THE LAKE SHOULD BE WEAK ON TUE... BUT
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS AROUND THE LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND INLAND
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE COOL NLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS COULD BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD...HOWEVER LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BE GENERALLY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK COULD FEATURE A
COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS THAT COULD AMOUNT TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.

AS OF TUESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS.

THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. INLAND
AREAS WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY...BUT THE EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS CLOSE TO THE LAKE SOMEWHAT COOL.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE TROUGH
AND WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THAT TIME. INCREASED PCPN CHANCES BECAUSE OF
THIS. THE SURFACE FRONT COULD STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AS EASTERLY INCREASE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEEP AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN THAN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON TIMING BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THAT A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO CANADA DURING THE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND RESULT IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA APPEAR TO BE MORE AT RISK OF
THIS HEAVY RAIN THAN THE SE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM...BUT DUE TO THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND.

COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AS UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE TERMINALS...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO AFFECT ALL BUT INL THROUGH 06Z. AREAS OF BR ARE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS 06Z WITH IFR/LIFR. CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 15Z...BUT MORE SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF ALL SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  66  56  71 /  80  50  10  10
INL  56  74  55  78 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  60  75  58  80 /  50  30  10  10
HYR  60  71  55  77 /  70  50  20   0
ASX  59  65  55  71 /  60  70  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 190134
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
834 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE THUNDER THREAT HAS MOVED INTO NW WI FOR THE NIGHT AND HAVE
REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION FROM NE MN. REST OF THE FORECAST STILL
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS AGAIN TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A PERSISTENT EAST WIND.

LARGE SCALE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL S/W
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...CO-LOCATED WITH AN EWD
PROGRESSING SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED N-S OVER WRN MN.
AS THE TROUGH AND SFC FRONT SWEEP TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE CLOUD COVER ATTEMPTING TO MIX OUT OVER E AND N-CENTRAL
MN. IF THIS CLEARING CONTINUES PRIOR TO FROPA...THE BL WILL LIKELY
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM AROUND PINE
RIVER TO HINCKLEY TO PHILLIPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING
ELEVATED AROUND THE SRN AND SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MINIMAL...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PULSE TYPE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AS WELL...WHICH COULD ALLOW
THE STORMS TO DROP HEAVY AMTS OF RAINFALL OVER A PERIOD OF TIME. A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND SAW SATURATING RAINS LAST
NIGHT...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOST OF THE AIR MASS AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE COOLER AND MORE STABLE...AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
SCT SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ANYWHERE IN THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLLAPSES TONIGHT AND AN ELEVATED INVERSION
SETS UP AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND A MOIST
NEAR-SFC LAYER AND CALM WINDS WILL PRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS
THE DEEP LAYER MIXING BEGINS.

A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TAKE A FAVORABLE PATH
THAT WILL KEEP THE DOMINANT WIND FLOW FROM THE EAST OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ALLOW THE COOL WIND REGIME TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE. THE WIND OFF THE LAKE SHOULD BE WEAK ON TUE... BUT
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS AROUND THE LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND INLAND
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE COOL NLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS COULD BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD...HOWEVER LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BE GENERALLY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK COULD FEATURE A
COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS THAT COULD AMOUNT TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.

AS OF TUESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS.

THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. INLAND
AREAS WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY...BUT THE EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS CLOSE TO THE LAKE SOMEWHAT COOL.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE TROUGH
AND WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THAT TIME. INCREASED PCPN CHANCES BECAUSE OF
THIS. THE SURFACE FRONT COULD STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AS EASTERLY INCREASE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEEP AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN THAN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON TIMING BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THAT A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO CANADA DURING THE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND RESULT IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA APPEAR TO BE MORE AT RISK OF
THIS HEAVY RAIN THAN THE SE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM...BUT DUE TO THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND.

COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AS UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE TERMINALS...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO AFFECT ALL BUT INL THROUGH 06Z. AREAS OF BR ARE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS 06Z WITH IFR/LIFR. CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 15Z...BUT MORE SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF ALL SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  66  56  71 /  80  50  10  10
INL  56  74  55  78 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  60  75  58  80 /  50  30  10  10
HYR  60  71  55  77 /  70  50  20   0
ASX  59  65  55  71 /  70  80  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 190134
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
834 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 834 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

THE THUNDER THREAT HAS MOVED INTO NW WI FOR THE NIGHT AND HAVE
REMOVED THE THUNDER MENTION FROM NE MN. REST OF THE FORECAST STILL
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS AGAIN TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A PERSISTENT EAST WIND.

LARGE SCALE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL S/W
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...CO-LOCATED WITH AN EWD
PROGRESSING SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED N-S OVER WRN MN.
AS THE TROUGH AND SFC FRONT SWEEP TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE CLOUD COVER ATTEMPTING TO MIX OUT OVER E AND N-CENTRAL
MN. IF THIS CLEARING CONTINUES PRIOR TO FROPA...THE BL WILL LIKELY
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM AROUND PINE
RIVER TO HINCKLEY TO PHILLIPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING
ELEVATED AROUND THE SRN AND SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MINIMAL...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PULSE TYPE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AS WELL...WHICH COULD ALLOW
THE STORMS TO DROP HEAVY AMTS OF RAINFALL OVER A PERIOD OF TIME. A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND SAW SATURATING RAINS LAST
NIGHT...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOST OF THE AIR MASS AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE COOLER AND MORE STABLE...AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
SCT SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ANYWHERE IN THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLLAPSES TONIGHT AND AN ELEVATED INVERSION
SETS UP AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND A MOIST
NEAR-SFC LAYER AND CALM WINDS WILL PRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS
THE DEEP LAYER MIXING BEGINS.

A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TAKE A FAVORABLE PATH
THAT WILL KEEP THE DOMINANT WIND FLOW FROM THE EAST OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ALLOW THE COOL WIND REGIME TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE. THE WIND OFF THE LAKE SHOULD BE WEAK ON TUE... BUT
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS AROUND THE LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND INLAND
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE COOL NLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS COULD BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD...HOWEVER LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BE GENERALLY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK COULD FEATURE A
COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS THAT COULD AMOUNT TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.

AS OF TUESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS.

THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. INLAND
AREAS WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY...BUT THE EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS CLOSE TO THE LAKE SOMEWHAT COOL.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE TROUGH
AND WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THAT TIME. INCREASED PCPN CHANCES BECAUSE OF
THIS. THE SURFACE FRONT COULD STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AS EASTERLY INCREASE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEEP AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN THAN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON TIMING BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THAT A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO CANADA DURING THE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND RESULT IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA APPEAR TO BE MORE AT RISK OF
THIS HEAVY RAIN THAN THE SE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM...BUT DUE TO THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND.

COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AS UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE TERMINALS...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO AFFECT ALL BUT INL THROUGH 06Z. AREAS OF BR ARE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS 06Z WITH IFR/LIFR. CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 15Z...BUT MORE SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF ALL SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  66  56  71 /  80  50  10  10
INL  56  74  55  78 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  60  75  58  80 /  50  30  10  10
HYR  60  71  55  77 /  70  50  20   0
ASX  59  65  55  71 /  70  80  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 190002
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
702 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS AGAIN TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A PERSISTENT EAST WIND.

LARGE SCALE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL S/W
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...CO-LOCATED WITH AN EWD
PROGRESSING SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED N-S OVER WRN MN.
AS THE TROUGH AND SFC FRONT SWEEP TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE CLOUD COVER ATTEMPTING TO MIX OUT OVER E AND N-CENTRAL
MN. IF THIS CLEARING CONTINUES PRIOR TO FROPA...THE BL WILL LIKELY
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM AROUND PINE
RIVER TO HINCKLEY TO PHILLIPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING
ELEVATED AROUND THE SRN AND SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MINIMAL...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PULSE TYPE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AS WELL...WHICH COULD ALLOW
THE STORMS TO DROP HEAVY AMTS OF RAINFALL OVER A PERIOD OF TIME. A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND SAW SATURATING RAINS LAST
NIGHT...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOST OF THE AIR MASS AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE COOLER AND MORE STABLE...AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
SCT SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ANYWHERE IN THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLLAPSES TONIGHT AND AN ELEVATED INVERSION
SETS UP AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND A MOIST
NEAR-SFC LAYER AND CALM WINDS WILL PRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS
THE DEEP LAYER MIXING BEGINS.

A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TAKE A FAVORABLE PATH
THAT WILL KEEP THE DOMINANT WIND FLOW FROM THE EAST OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ALLOW THE COOL WIND REGIME TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE. THE WIND OFF THE LAKE SHOULD BE WEAK ON TUE... BUT
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS AROUND THE LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND INLAND
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE COOL NLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS COULD BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD...HOWEVER LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BE GENERALLY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK COULD FEATURE A
COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS THAT COULD AMOUNT TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.

AS OF TUESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS.

THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. INLAND
AREAS WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY...BUT THE EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS CLOSE TO THE LAKE SOMEWHAT COOL.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE TROUGH
AND WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THAT TIME. INCREASED PCPN CHANCES BECAUSE OF
THIS. THE SURFACE FRONT COULD STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AS EASTERLY INCREASE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEEP AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN THAN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON TIMING BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THAT A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO CANADA DURING THE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND RESULT IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA APPEAR TO BE MORE AT RISK OF
THIS HEAVY RAIN THAN THE SE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM...BUT DUE TO THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND.

COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AS UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE TERMINALS...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO AFFECT ALL BUT INL THROUGH 06Z. AREAS OF BR ARE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS 06Z WITH IFR/LIFR. CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 15Z...BUT MORE SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF ALL SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  66  56  71 /  80  50  10  10
INL  56  74  55  78 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  60  75  58  80 /  50  30  10  10
HYR  60  71  55  77 /  70  50  20   0
ASX  59  65  55  71 /  70  80  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 190002
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
702 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS AGAIN TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A PERSISTENT EAST WIND.

LARGE SCALE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL S/W
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...CO-LOCATED WITH AN EWD
PROGRESSING SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED N-S OVER WRN MN.
AS THE TROUGH AND SFC FRONT SWEEP TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE CLOUD COVER ATTEMPTING TO MIX OUT OVER E AND N-CENTRAL
MN. IF THIS CLEARING CONTINUES PRIOR TO FROPA...THE BL WILL LIKELY
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM AROUND PINE
RIVER TO HINCKLEY TO PHILLIPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING
ELEVATED AROUND THE SRN AND SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MINIMAL...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PULSE TYPE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AS WELL...WHICH COULD ALLOW
THE STORMS TO DROP HEAVY AMTS OF RAINFALL OVER A PERIOD OF TIME. A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND SAW SATURATING RAINS LAST
NIGHT...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOST OF THE AIR MASS AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE COOLER AND MORE STABLE...AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
SCT SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ANYWHERE IN THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLLAPSES TONIGHT AND AN ELEVATED INVERSION
SETS UP AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND A MOIST
NEAR-SFC LAYER AND CALM WINDS WILL PRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS
THE DEEP LAYER MIXING BEGINS.

A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TAKE A FAVORABLE PATH
THAT WILL KEEP THE DOMINANT WIND FLOW FROM THE EAST OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ALLOW THE COOL WIND REGIME TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE. THE WIND OFF THE LAKE SHOULD BE WEAK ON TUE... BUT
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS AROUND THE LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND INLAND
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE COOL NLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS COULD BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD...HOWEVER LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BE GENERALLY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK COULD FEATURE A
COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS THAT COULD AMOUNT TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.

AS OF TUESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS.

THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. INLAND
AREAS WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY...BUT THE EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS CLOSE TO THE LAKE SOMEWHAT COOL.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE TROUGH
AND WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THAT TIME. INCREASED PCPN CHANCES BECAUSE OF
THIS. THE SURFACE FRONT COULD STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AS EASTERLY INCREASE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEEP AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN THAN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON TIMING BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THAT A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO CANADA DURING THE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND RESULT IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA APPEAR TO BE MORE AT RISK OF
THIS HEAVY RAIN THAN THE SE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM...BUT DUE TO THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND.

COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AS UPPER LOW ROTATES OVER THE TERMINALS...EXPECT SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO AFFECT ALL BUT INL THROUGH 06Z. AREAS OF BR ARE POSSIBLE
TOWARDS 06Z WITH IFR/LIFR. CIGS AND VSBY SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR
AFTER 15Z...BUT MORE SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF ALL SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  66  56  71 /  80  50  10  10
INL  56  74  55  78 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  60  75  58  80 /  50  30  10  10
HYR  60  71  55  77 /  70  50  20   0
ASX  59  65  55  71 /  70  80  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 182022
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS AGAIN TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A PERSISTENT EAST WIND.

LARGE SCALE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL S/W
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...CO-LOCATED WITH AN EWD
PROGRESSING SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED N-S OVER WRN MN.
AS THE TROUGH AND SFC FRONT SWEEP TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE CLOUD COVER ATTEMPTING TO MIX OUT OVER E AND N-CENTRAL
MN. IF THIS CLEARING CONTINUES PRIOR TO FROPA...THE BL WILL LIKELY
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM AROUND PINE
RIVER TO HINCKLEY TO PHILLIPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING
ELEVATED AROUND THE SRN AND SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MINIMAL...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PULSE TYPE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AS WELL...WHICH COULD ALLOW
THE STORMS TO DROP HEAVY AMTS OF RAINFALL OVER A PERIOD OF TIME. A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND SAW SATURATING RAINS LAST
NIGHT...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOST OF THE AIR MASS AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE COOLER AND MORE STABLE...AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
SCT SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ANYWHERE IN THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLLAPSES TONIGHT AND AN ELEVATED INVERSION
SETS UP AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND A MOIST
NEAR-SFC LAYER AND CALM WINDS WILL PRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS
THE DEEP LAYER MIXING BEGINS.

A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TAKE A FAVORABLE PATH
THAT WILL KEEP THE DOMINANT WIND FLOW FROM THE EAST OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ALLOW THE COOL WIND REGIME TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE. THE WIND OFF THE LAKE SHOULD BE WEAK ON TUE... BUT
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS AROUND THE LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND INLAND
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE COOL NRLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS COULD BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD...HOWEVER LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BE GENERALLY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK COULD FEATURE A
COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS THAT COULD AMOUNT TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.

AS OF TUESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS.

THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. INLAND
AREAS WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY...BUT THE EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS CLOSE TO THE LAKE SOMEWHAT COOL.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE TROUGH
AND WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THAT TIME. INCREASED PCPN CHANCES BECAUSE OF
THIS. THE SURFACE FRONT COULD STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AS EASTERLY INCREASE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEEP AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN THAN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON TIMING BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THAT A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO CANADA DURING THE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND RESULT IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA APPEAR TO BE MORE AT RISK OF
THIS HEAVY RAIN THAN THE SE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM...BUT DUE TO THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND.

COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS BUT ALSO REDUCED
VSBY FROM LINGERING MORNING FOG AND MIST. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION...MAINLY NEAR THE KHIB AND KINL AREAS. THERE WERE
MORE SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS IN NW MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KINL/KHIB/KDLH
AREAS AND TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KBRD/KHYR AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOG AND MIST IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF STORMS IS MAINLY FOR THE
KBRD AND KHYR AREAS...SO I REMOVED THUNDER FOR THE KDLH/KHIB/KHYR
AREAS. HOWEVER...IF IT APPEARS THESE TERMINALS HAVE A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDER...WILL ADD THUNDER BACK TO THE THOSE
FORECASTS.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY MORNING...PROBABLY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  66  56  71 /  80  50  10  10
INL  56  74  55  78 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  60  75  58  80 /  50  30  10  10
HYR  60  71  55  77 /  70  50  20   0
ASX  59  65  55  71 /  70  80  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 182022
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF STORMS AGAIN TUE
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG LATE TONIGHT AND TUE MORNING...AND COOLER TEMPERATURES AROUND
THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO A PERSISTENT EAST WIND.

LARGE SCALE LIFT IS BEING GENERATED BY AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL S/W
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THIS AFTERNOON...CO-LOCATED WITH AN EWD
PROGRESSING SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY POSITIONED N-S OVER WRN MN.
AS THE TROUGH AND SFC FRONT SWEEP TO THE EAST...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO
INDICATE THE CLOUD COVER ATTEMPTING TO MIX OUT OVER E AND N-CENTRAL
MN. IF THIS CLEARING CONTINUES PRIOR TO FROPA...THE BL WILL LIKELY
BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH A FEW
STORMS POSSIBLY PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS FROM AROUND PINE
RIVER TO HINCKLEY TO PHILLIPS. INSTABILITY PARAMETERS ARE BECOMING
ELEVATED AROUND THE SRN AND SWRN PERIPHERY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH ML CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS
MINIMAL...BUT LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEP ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT PULSE TYPE STORMS THROUGH THE LATE EVENING. THE STORMS
WILL LIKELY BE RELATIVELY SLOW MOVING AS WELL...WHICH COULD ALLOW
THE STORMS TO DROP HEAVY AMTS OF RAINFALL OVER A PERIOD OF TIME. A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND SAW SATURATING RAINS LAST
NIGHT...AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD FURTHER ENHANCE THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING. MOST OF THE AIR MASS AROUND LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL BE COOLER AND MORE STABLE...AND NOT SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...STILL CANNOT RULE OUT
SCT SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS ANYWHERE IN THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER COLLAPSES TONIGHT AND AN ELEVATED INVERSION
SETS UP AGAIN...THE COMBINATION OF COOL OVERNIGHT TEMPS AND A MOIST
NEAR-SFC LAYER AND CALM WINDS WILL PRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ONCE
AGAIN. VSBYS WILL BE REDUCED TO A HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES
THROUGH THE REGION. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY MID MORNING AS
THE DEEP LAYER MIXING BEGINS.

A SFC LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL TAKE A FAVORABLE PATH
THAT WILL KEEP THE DOMINANT WIND FLOW FROM THE EAST OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR AND ALLOW THE COOL WIND REGIME TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST TUE. THE WIND OFF THE LAKE SHOULD BE WEAK ON TUE... BUT
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS 5-10 DEG COOLER THAN INLAND LOCATIONS. LOOK
FOR HIGHS AROUND THE LAKE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S...AND INLAND
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

THE COOL NRLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALLOW LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS TUE AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS COULD BECOME QUITE WIDESPREAD...HOWEVER LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW STORMS TO BE GENERALLY ISOLATED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST. WHILE THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK LOOKS
RELATIVELY QUIET...THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK COULD FEATURE A
COUPLE SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS THAT COULD AMOUNT TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.

AS OF TUESDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
LAKE SUPERIOR AND LAKE MICHIGAN AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE
OVER THE PLAINS.

THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS TUESDAY EVENING...MAINLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA...AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
GRADUALLY SHIFTS EAST AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. INLAND
AREAS WILL BE WARMER THAN TUESDAY...BUT THE EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP AREAS CLOSE TO THE LAKE SOMEWHAT COOL.

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A SURFACE TROUGH
AND WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST DURING THE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY TIMEFRAME AND BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO PARTS
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THAT TIME. INCREASED PCPN CHANCES BECAUSE OF
THIS. THE SURFACE FRONT COULD STALL OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY AS EASTERLY INCREASE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND KEEP AREAS NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER
THAN THAN THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THE MODELS DO NO AGREE ON TIMING BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THAT A
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN THE PLAINS WILL LIFT INTO CANADA DURING THE
FRIDAY OR SATURDAY TIMEFRAME AND RESULT IN A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS OR UPPER MIDWEST DURING
THAT TIME. THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING HEAVY RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA.
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST AREA APPEAR TO BE MORE AT RISK OF
THIS HEAVY RAIN THAN THE SE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF AND GEM...BUT DUE TO THE GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE
PLACEMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS
SYSTEM FOR THE POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN AFFECTING THE NORTHLAND.

COOLER AIR WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS BUT ALSO REDUCED
VSBY FROM LINGERING MORNING FOG AND MIST. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION...MAINLY NEAR THE KHIB AND KINL AREAS. THERE WERE
MORE SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS IN NW MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KINL/KHIB/KDLH
AREAS AND TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KBRD/KHYR AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOG AND MIST IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF STORMS IS MAINLY FOR THE
KBRD AND KHYR AREAS...SO I REMOVED THUNDER FOR THE KDLH/KHIB/KHYR
AREAS. HOWEVER...IF IT APPEARS THESE TERMINALS HAVE A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDER...WILL ADD THUNDER BACK TO THE THOSE
FORECASTS.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY MORNING...PROBABLY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  66  56  71 /  80  50  10  10
INL  56  74  55  78 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  60  75  58  80 /  50  30  10  10
HYR  60  71  55  77 /  70  50  20   0
ASX  59  65  55  71 /  70  80  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 181745 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

ADDED TIMING AND MOVEMENT TO HIGHER POPS LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. STILL EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO FALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AROUND A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DROPPED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AT 330 AM...THE WET WEATHER CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM THE
MN ARROWHEAD...THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THERE WAS A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WESTERN
CWA...IN BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN NW WI.

A WET DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR THE NORTHLAND...AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR THE TWIN CITIES BY 06Z TUE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MN AND INTO WI BY 12Z TUE.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...WITH THE
BRAINERD RAWS STATION REPORTING 1.72 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE SANDY LAKE DAM REPORTED 1.29 INCHES OF NEW RAIN.
FORTUNATELY THAT AREA IS IN A BIT OF A BREAK NOW AND HAS BEEN FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE MORESO
EAST OF THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN MN
AND INTO NW WI. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...THERE
SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

THE WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS THE LOW
ROTATES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

ITS A BUSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CURRENT
TROF WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT OVER EASTERN
WI...KEEPING NWRN WI STILL IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF
RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER TROF
CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AFFECT THE NORTHLANDS WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE MEANS A WET PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SFC PATTERN THAT RESULTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS...THE FIRST TO
AFFECT THE NORTHLAND WILL SWING UP FROM THE SOUTH...WITH A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION...PUTTING THE NORTHLAND IN AN AREA OF
WAA OVERRUNNING RAIN....WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTER AND FRONT ARRIVING
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN ANOTHER COMING IN LATER EARLY IN THE WEEK.
TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES ARE APPARENT IN THE MODELS...BUT ALL ARE
POINTING TO A WET AND COOL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS BUT ALSO REDUCED
VSBY FROM LINGERING MORNING FOG AND MIST. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION...MAINLY NEAR THE KHIB AND KINL AREAS. THERE WERE
MORE SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS IN NW MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KINL/KHIB/KDLH
AREAS AND TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KBRD/KHYR AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOG AND MIST IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF STORMS IS MAINLY FOR THE
KBRD AND KHYR AREAS...SO I REMOVED THUNDER FOR THE KDLH/KHIB/KHYR
AREAS. HOWEVER...IF IT APPEARS THESE TERMINALS HAVE A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDER...WILL ADD THUNDER BACK TO THE THOSE
FORECASTS.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY MORNING...PROBABLY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  58  68  56 /  70  90  60  10
INL  70  57  76  56 /  60  50  50  10
BRD  75  60  77  58 /  70  60  30  10
HYR  75  60  74  57 /  60  70  60  10
ASX  73  58  68  57 /  70  60  70  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 181745 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

ADDED TIMING AND MOVEMENT TO HIGHER POPS LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. STILL EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO FALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AROUND A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DROPPED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AT 330 AM...THE WET WEATHER CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM THE
MN ARROWHEAD...THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THERE WAS A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WESTERN
CWA...IN BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN NW WI.

A WET DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR THE NORTHLAND...AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR THE TWIN CITIES BY 06Z TUE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MN AND INTO WI BY 12Z TUE.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...WITH THE
BRAINERD RAWS STATION REPORTING 1.72 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE SANDY LAKE DAM REPORTED 1.29 INCHES OF NEW RAIN.
FORTUNATELY THAT AREA IS IN A BIT OF A BREAK NOW AND HAS BEEN FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE MORESO
EAST OF THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN MN
AND INTO NW WI. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...THERE
SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

THE WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS THE LOW
ROTATES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

ITS A BUSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CURRENT
TROF WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT OVER EASTERN
WI...KEEPING NWRN WI STILL IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF
RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER TROF
CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AFFECT THE NORTHLANDS WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE MEANS A WET PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SFC PATTERN THAT RESULTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS...THE FIRST TO
AFFECT THE NORTHLAND WILL SWING UP FROM THE SOUTH...WITH A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION...PUTTING THE NORTHLAND IN AN AREA OF
WAA OVERRUNNING RAIN....WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTER AND FRONT ARRIVING
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN ANOTHER COMING IN LATER EARLY IN THE WEEK.
TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES ARE APPARENT IN THE MODELS...BUT ALL ARE
POINTING TO A WET AND COOL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY DUE TO LOW CIGS BUT ALSO REDUCED
VSBY FROM LINGERING MORNING FOG AND MIST. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS
OVER THE REGION...MAINLY NEAR THE KHIB AND KINL AREAS. THERE WERE
MORE SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS IN NW MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME IMPROVEMENT TO IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KINL/KHIB/KDLH
AREAS AND TO MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE KBRD/KHYR AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE AGAIN TONIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO TUESDAY MORNING. FOG AND MIST IS EXPECTED TO
REDEVELOP AND INTENSIFY TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE LIKELY OVER THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. THE THREAT OF STORMS IS MAINLY FOR THE
KBRD AND KHYR AREAS...SO I REMOVED THUNDER FOR THE KDLH/KHIB/KHYR
AREAS. HOWEVER...IF IT APPEARS THESE TERMINALS HAVE A DECENT
CHANCE OF SEEING THUNDER...WILL ADD THUNDER BACK TO THE THOSE
FORECASTS.

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE LATE TUESDAY MORNING...PROBABLY
TO WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  58  68  56 /  70  90  60  10
INL  70  57  76  56 /  60  50  50  10
BRD  75  60  77  58 /  70  60  30  10
HYR  75  60  74  57 /  60  70  60  10
ASX  73  58  68  57 /  70  60  70  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 181624 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1124 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

ADDED TIMING AND MOVEMENT TO HIGHER POPS LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. STILL EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO FALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AROUND A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DROPPED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AT 330 AM...THE WET WEATHER CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM THE
MN ARROWHEAD...THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THERE WAS A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WESTERN
CWA...IN BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN NW WI.

A WET DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR THE NORTHLAND...AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR THE TWIN CITIES BY 06Z TUE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MN AND INTO WI BY 12Z TUE.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...WITH THE
BRAINERD RAWS STATION REPORTING 1.72 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE SANDY LAKE DAM REPORTED 1.29 INCHES OF NEW RAIN.
FORTUNATELY THAT AREA IS IN A BIT OF A BREAK NOW AND HAS BEEN FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE MORESO
EAST OF THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN MN
AND INTO NW WI. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...THERE
SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

THE WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS THE LOW
ROTATES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

ITS A BUSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CURRENT
TROF WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT OVER EASTERN
WI...KEEPING NWRN WI STILL IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF
RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER TROF
CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AFFECT THE NORTHLANDS WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE MEANS A WET PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SFC PATTERN THAT RESULTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS...THE FIRST TO
AFFECT THE NORTHLAND WILL SWING UP FROM THE SOUTH...WITH A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION...PUTTING THE NORTHLAND IN AN AREA OF
WAA OVERRUNNING RAIN....WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTER AND FRONT ARRIVING
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN ANOTHER COMING IN LATER EARLY IN THE WEEK.
TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES ARE APPARENT IN THE MODELS...BUT ALL ARE
POINTING TO A WET AND COOL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS A CHC THAT CIGS MAY GO MVFR
OR EVEN VFR...FOR A TIME BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KBRD AND KHYR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH LOW CIGS...SOME
FOG AND TSTMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  58  68  56 /  70  90  60  10
INL  70  57  76  56 /  60  50  50  10
BRD  75  60  77  58 /  70  60  30  10
HYR  75  60  74  57 /  60  70  60  10
ASX  73  58  68  57 /  70  60  70  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC









000
FXUS63 KDLH 181624 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1124 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1123 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

ADDED TIMING AND MOVEMENT TO HIGHER POPS LATE THIS MORNING AND
INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION. STILL EXPECTING THE HEAVIEST PRECIP TO FALL LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH AROUND A HALF TO ONE INCH OF RAINFALL
POSSIBLE. ALSO ADDED FOG TO THE FORECAST LATE THIS EVENING AND
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. DROPPED MAX TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AT 330 AM...THE WET WEATHER CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM THE
MN ARROWHEAD...THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THERE WAS A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WESTERN
CWA...IN BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN NW WI.

A WET DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR THE NORTHLAND...AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR THE TWIN CITIES BY 06Z TUE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MN AND INTO WI BY 12Z TUE.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...WITH THE
BRAINERD RAWS STATION REPORTING 1.72 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE SANDY LAKE DAM REPORTED 1.29 INCHES OF NEW RAIN.
FORTUNATELY THAT AREA IS IN A BIT OF A BREAK NOW AND HAS BEEN FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE MORESO
EAST OF THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN MN
AND INTO NW WI. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...THERE
SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

THE WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS THE LOW
ROTATES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

ITS A BUSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CURRENT
TROF WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT OVER EASTERN
WI...KEEPING NWRN WI STILL IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF
RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER TROF
CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AFFECT THE NORTHLANDS WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE MEANS A WET PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SFC PATTERN THAT RESULTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS...THE FIRST TO
AFFECT THE NORTHLAND WILL SWING UP FROM THE SOUTH...WITH A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION...PUTTING THE NORTHLAND IN AN AREA OF
WAA OVERRUNNING RAIN....WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTER AND FRONT ARRIVING
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN ANOTHER COMING IN LATER EARLY IN THE WEEK.
TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES ARE APPARENT IN THE MODELS...BUT ALL ARE
POINTING TO A WET AND COOL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS A CHC THAT CIGS MAY GO MVFR
OR EVEN VFR...FOR A TIME BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KBRD AND KHYR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH LOW CIGS...SOME
FOG AND TSTMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  58  68  56 /  70  90  60  10
INL  70  57  76  56 /  60  50  50  10
BRD  75  60  77  58 /  70  60  30  10
HYR  75  60  74  57 /  60  70  60  10
ASX  73  58  68  57 /  70  60  70  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 181143 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AT 330 AM...THE WET WEATHER CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM THE
MN ARROWHEAD...THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THERE WAS A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WESTERN
CWA...IN BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN NW WI.

A WET DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR THE NORTHLAND...AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR THE TWIN CITIES BY 06Z TUE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MN AND INTO WI BY 12Z TUE.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...WITH THE
BRAINERD RAWS STATION REPORTING 1.72 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE SANDY LAKE DAM REPORTED 1.29 INCHES OF NEW RAIN.
FORTUNATELY THAT AREA IS IN A BIT OF A BREAK NOW AND HAS BEEN FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE MORESO
EAST OF THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN MN
AND INTO NW WI. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...THERE
SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

THE WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS THE LOW
ROTATES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

ITS A BUSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CURRENT
TROF WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT OVER EASTERN
WI...KEEPING NWRN WI STILL IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF
RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER TROF
CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AFFECT THE NORTHLANDS WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE MEANS A WET PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SFC PATTERN THAT RESULTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS...THE FIRST TO
AFFECT THE NORTHLAND WILL SWING UP FROM THE SOUTH...WITH A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION...PUTTING THE NORTHLAND IN AN AREA OF
WAA OVERRUNNING RAIN....WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTER AND FRONT ARRIVING
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN ANOTHER COMING IN LATER EARLY IN THE WEEK.
TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES ARE APPARENT IN THE MODELS...BUT ALL ARE
POINTING TO A WET AND COOL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS A CHC THAT CIGS MAY GO MVFR
OR EVEN VFR...FOR A TIME BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KBRD AND KHYR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH LOW CIGS...SOME
FOG AND TSTMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  58  68  56 /  80  80  60  10
INL  73  58  76  56 /  80  80  50  10
BRD  77  61  77  58 /  70  60  30  10
HYR  78  60  74  57 /  80  80  60  10
ASX  75  58  68  57 /  80  80  70  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 181143 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AT 330 AM...THE WET WEATHER CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM THE
MN ARROWHEAD...THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THERE WAS A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WESTERN
CWA...IN BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN NW WI.

A WET DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR THE NORTHLAND...AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR THE TWIN CITIES BY 06Z TUE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MN AND INTO WI BY 12Z TUE.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...WITH THE
BRAINERD RAWS STATION REPORTING 1.72 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE SANDY LAKE DAM REPORTED 1.29 INCHES OF NEW RAIN.
FORTUNATELY THAT AREA IS IN A BIT OF A BREAK NOW AND HAS BEEN FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE MORESO
EAST OF THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN MN
AND INTO NW WI. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...THERE
SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

THE WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS THE LOW
ROTATES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

ITS A BUSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CURRENT
TROF WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT OVER EASTERN
WI...KEEPING NWRN WI STILL IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF
RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER TROF
CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AFFECT THE NORTHLANDS WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE MEANS A WET PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SFC PATTERN THAT RESULTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS...THE FIRST TO
AFFECT THE NORTHLAND WILL SWING UP FROM THE SOUTH...WITH A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION...PUTTING THE NORTHLAND IN AN AREA OF
WAA OVERRUNNING RAIN....WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTER AND FRONT ARRIVING
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN ANOTHER COMING IN LATER EARLY IN THE WEEK.
TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES ARE APPARENT IN THE MODELS...BUT ALL ARE
POINTING TO A WET AND COOL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING...WITH
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS. THERE IS A CHC THAT CIGS MAY GO MVFR
OR EVEN VFR...FOR A TIME BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z AT KBRD AND KHYR.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH LOW CIGS...SOME
FOG AND TSTMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  58  68  56 /  80  80  60  10
INL  73  58  76  56 /  80  80  50  10
BRD  77  61  77  58 /  70  60  30  10
HYR  78  60  74  57 /  80  80  60  10
ASX  75  58  68  57 /  80  80  70  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 180858
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

AT 330 AM...THE WET WEATHER CONTINUED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHED FROM THE
MN ARROWHEAD...THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS...EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THERE WAS A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE WESTERN
CWA...IN BETWEEN THE SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE DAKOTAS. TEMPERATURES WERE
GENERALLY IN THE 50S WITH SOME LOWER 60S IN NW WI.

A WET DAY IS SHAPING UP FOR THE NORTHLAND...AS A MAJOR SHORTWAVE
TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR THE TWIN CITIES BY 06Z TUE AS
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH MN AND INTO WI BY 12Z TUE.
HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ON THE ORDER OF 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES
WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY. WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...WITH THE
BRAINERD RAWS STATION REPORTING 1.72 INCHES OF RAIN IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE SANDY LAKE DAM REPORTED 1.29 INCHES OF NEW RAIN.
FORTUNATELY THAT AREA IS IN A BIT OF A BREAK NOW AND HAS BEEN FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. THE FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAIN WILL BE MORESO
EAST OF THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER FAR EASTERN MN
AND INTO NW WI. IN ADDITION TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS...THERE
SHOULD BE A GOOD DEAL OF CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. COULD ALSO BE SOME FOG
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND INTO TUESDAY AS WELL.

THE WET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY. WILL
CONTINUE WITH FAIRLY HIGH POPS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...AS THE LOW
ROTATES DIRECTLY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

ITS A BUSY UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD. CURRENT
TROF WILL BE SLOW TO EXIT THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH IT OVER EASTERN
WI...KEEPING NWRN WI STILL IN CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR
ADVECTION...AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. THERE WILL BE SOME BRIEF
RIDGING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHERN STREAM OF THE UPPER TROF
CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE WEST COAST WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND AFFECT THE NORTHLANDS WEATHER THROUGH THE
REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.  THE MEANS A WET PERIOD WITH CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE SFC PATTERN THAT RESULTS FROM THIS
SYSTEM WILL FEATURE A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE AREAS...THE FIRST TO
AFFECT THE NORTHLAND WILL SWING UP FROM THE SOUTH...WITH A WARM FRONT
DEVELOPING SOUTH OF THE REGION...PUTTING THE NORTHLAND IN AN AREA OF
WAA OVERRUNNING RAIN....WITH ANOTHER LOW CENTER AND FRONT ARRIVING
FRIDAY EVENING...THEN ANOTHER COMING IN LATER EARLY IN THE WEEK.
TIMING AND STRENGTH ISSUES ARE APPARENT IN THE MODELS...BUT ALL ARE
POINTING TO A WET AND COOL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM  CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MVFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -DZ/BR AND SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT DLH/HYR OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF -DZ/BR WITH THOSE SAME
LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES CLOSER AND SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP AROUND 15Z TO 18Z.
TIMING AT THIS POINT IS DIFFICULT AND HAVE VCTS MENTIONED.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  58  68  56 /  80  80  60  10
INL  73  58  76  56 /  80  80  50  10
BRD  77  61  77  58 /  70  60  30  10
HYR  78  60  74  57 /  80  80  60  10
ASX  75  58  68  57 /  80  80  70  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 180536 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1236 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED FROM SOUTHERN AITKIN
TO NORTHERN PINE COUNTY. HAVE ADDED BACK IN A MENTION OF THUNDER
BECAUSE OF THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS IS RAINFALL CHANCES/AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BRD TO DLH. SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER 1.5 INCHES AT BRD AND PINE RIVER.
RADAR ESTIMATES AN 30 MILE WIDE AREA OF OVER AN INCH RAINFALL FROM
BREEZY POINT EAST TO NEAR BROOKSTON.

THE PRECIPITATION IS CAUSED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SLOWLY
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREAD NE MN BY
EARLY MORNING AND NW WI BY LATE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME OF THE
AREAS RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES TODAY AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

 PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES WILL
AMPLIFY AND PUSH SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE U.P. OF
MICH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MDLS SUPPORT THAT A MID LVL LOW WILL
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE REGION TUES MORNING. THE SFC PATTERN THAT
RESULTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MON
NIGHT ...WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS POSSIBLE... UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY WHEN
SFC LOW SHOULD CONCENTRATE NEAR NE WISCONSIN. WITH A DEEPLY
CYCLONIC MOIST CIRCULATION OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
RELATIVELY HIGH PWS...WE MAY SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS.
MDLS VARY SUBSTANTIALLY ON WHERE THE MOST LIKELY HIGH QPF OCCURS BUT
IN GENERAL MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE
INCH TOTALS. THERE WILL BE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE GREATER FORCING THAT
COULD SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. INITIAL GUESSTIMATES SUGGEST FROM THE
ST CROIX VALLEY INTO NWRN WISC MAY SEE HIGHEST TOTALS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH GIVEN CONFLICTING MDL SIGNALS AT THIS TIME. A DRY
INTERLUDE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE MID LVL
FLOW CHANGES IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROF OVER
PACNW/NRN ROCKIES BY END OF WEEK. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO REGION BY THURSDAY HOWEVER MDLS MAY BE TOO FAST WITH ITS
ARRIVAL CONSIDERING SFC HIGH POISED EAST OF REGION AND RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LAYERS. MUCH VACILLATION IN RECENT MDL GUIDANCE OVER HOW THE
PATTERN DEVELOP LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A FRONTAL
BDRY WILL PUSH INTO HE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING
MUCH HIGHER POPS EVENTUALLY. HOWEVER...THE POSITIONING OF THE ACTUAL
SFC BDRY/WAVE WILL BE SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM  CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MVFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -DZ/BR AND SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT DLH/HYR OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF -DZ/BR WITH THOSE SAME
LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES CLOSER AND SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP AROUND 15Z TO 18Z.
TIMING AT THIS POINT IS DIFFICULT AND HAVE VCTS MENTIONED.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  70  56  72 /  60  40  10  10
INL  58  75  56  78 /  60  10  10  10
BRD  61  76  58  79 /  50  20  10  10
HYR  60  71  57  75 /  70  50  10  10
ASX  58  69  57  72 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 180536 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1236 AM CDT MON AUG 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED FROM SOUTHERN AITKIN
TO NORTHERN PINE COUNTY. HAVE ADDED BACK IN A MENTION OF THUNDER
BECAUSE OF THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS IS RAINFALL CHANCES/AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BRD TO DLH. SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER 1.5 INCHES AT BRD AND PINE RIVER.
RADAR ESTIMATES AN 30 MILE WIDE AREA OF OVER AN INCH RAINFALL FROM
BREEZY POINT EAST TO NEAR BROOKSTON.

THE PRECIPITATION IS CAUSED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SLOWLY
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREAD NE MN BY
EARLY MORNING AND NW WI BY LATE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME OF THE
AREAS RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES TODAY AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

 PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES WILL
AMPLIFY AND PUSH SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE U.P. OF
MICH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MDLS SUPPORT THAT A MID LVL LOW WILL
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE REGION TUES MORNING. THE SFC PATTERN THAT
RESULTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MON
NIGHT ...WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS POSSIBLE... UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY WHEN
SFC LOW SHOULD CONCENTRATE NEAR NE WISCONSIN. WITH A DEEPLY
CYCLONIC MOIST CIRCULATION OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
RELATIVELY HIGH PWS...WE MAY SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS.
MDLS VARY SUBSTANTIALLY ON WHERE THE MOST LIKELY HIGH QPF OCCURS BUT
IN GENERAL MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE
INCH TOTALS. THERE WILL BE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE GREATER FORCING THAT
COULD SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. INITIAL GUESSTIMATES SUGGEST FROM THE
ST CROIX VALLEY INTO NWRN WISC MAY SEE HIGHEST TOTALS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH GIVEN CONFLICTING MDL SIGNALS AT THIS TIME. A DRY
INTERLUDE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE MID LVL
FLOW CHANGES IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROF OVER
PACNW/NRN ROCKIES BY END OF WEEK. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO REGION BY THURSDAY HOWEVER MDLS MAY BE TOO FAST WITH ITS
ARRIVAL CONSIDERING SFC HIGH POISED EAST OF REGION AND RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LAYERS. MUCH VACILLATION IN RECENT MDL GUIDANCE OVER HOW THE
PATTERN DEVELOP LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A FRONTAL
BDRY WILL PUSH INTO HE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING
MUCH HIGHER POPS EVENTUALLY. HOWEVER...THE POSITIONING OF THE ACTUAL
SFC BDRY/WAVE WILL BE SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1235 AM  CDT MON AUG 18 2014

MVFR TO LIFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH -DZ/BR AND SOME ISOLD SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT DLH/HYR OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE...AREAS OF -DZ/BR WITH THOSE SAME
LOW CIGS/VSBYS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST UNTIL UPPER LEVEL TROF
MOVES CLOSER AND SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOP AROUND 15Z TO 18Z.
TIMING AT THIS POINT IS DIFFICULT AND HAVE VCTS MENTIONED.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  70  56  72 /  60  40  10  10
INL  58  75  56  78 /  60  10  10  10
BRD  61  76  58  79 /  50  20  10  10
HYR  60  71  57  75 /  70  50  10  10
ASX  58  69  57  72 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 180241
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
941 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED FROM SOUTHERN AITKIN
TO NORTHERN PINE COUNTY. HAVE ADDED BACK IN A MENTION OF THUNDER
BECAUSE OF THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS IS RAINFALL CHANCES/AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BRD TO DLH. SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER 1.5 INCHES AT BRD AND PINE RIVER.
RADAR ESTIMATES AN 30 MILE WIDE AREA OF OVER AN INCH RAINFALL FROM
BREEZY POINT EAST TO NEAR BROOKSTON.

THE PRECIPITATION IS CAUSED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SLOWLY
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREAD NE MN BY
EARLY MORNING AND NW WI BY LATE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME OF THE
AREAS RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES TODAY AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

 PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES WILL
AMPLIFY AND PUSH SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE U.P. OF
MICH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MDLS SUPPORT THAT A MID LVL LOW WILL
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE REGION TUES MORNING. THE SFC PATTERN THAT
RESULTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MON
NIGHT ...WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS POSSIBLE... UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY WHEN
SFC LOW SHOULD CONCENTRATE NEAR NE WISCONSIN. WITH A DEEPLY
CYCLONIC MOIST CIRCULATION OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
RELATIVELY HIGH PWS...WE MAY SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS.
MDLS VARY SUBSTANTIALLY ON WHERE THE MOST LIKELY HIGH QPF OCCURS BUT
IN GENERAL MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE
INCH TOTALS. THERE WILL BE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE GREATER FORCING THAT
COULD SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. INITIAL GUESSTIMATES SUGGEST FROM THE
ST CROIX VALLEY INTO NWRN WISC MAY SEE HIGHEST TOTALS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH GIVEN CONFLICTING MDL SIGNALS AT THIS TIME. A DRY
INTERLUDE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE MID LVL
FLOW CHANGES IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROF OVER
PACNW/NRN ROCKIES BY END OF WEEK. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO REGION BY THURSDAY HOWEVER MDLS MAY BE TOO FAST WITH ITS
ARRIVAL CONSIDERING SFC HIGH POISED EAST OF REGION AND RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LAYERS. MUCH VACILLATION IN RECENT MDL GUIDANCE OVER HOW THE
PATTERN DEVELOP LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A FRONTAL
BDRY WILL PUSH INTO HE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING
MUCH HIGHER POPS EVENTUALLY. HOWEVER...THE POSITIONING OF THE ACTUAL
SFC BDRY/WAVE WILL BE SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE DLH/HYR SITES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z.
VCSH AT BRD THROUGH 02Z AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR.
EXPECT ALL SITES TO EXPERIENCE BR AND IFR BY 06Z WITH SOME -DZ
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AFTER 15Z WITH
CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE VCNTY OF STORMS...BUT WITH MVFR
VSBYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  69  58  70 /  60  70  60  40
INL  53  73  58  75 /  60  70  60  10
BRD  60  77  61  76 /  60  70  50  20
HYR  61  78  60  71 /  70  70  70  50
ASX  56  75  58  69 /  70  60  70  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 180241
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
941 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

ONE SMALL CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED FROM SOUTHERN AITKIN
TO NORTHERN PINE COUNTY. HAVE ADDED BACK IN A MENTION OF THUNDER
BECAUSE OF THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS IS RAINFALL CHANCES/AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BRD TO DLH. SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER 1.5 INCHES AT BRD AND PINE RIVER.
RADAR ESTIMATES AN 30 MILE WIDE AREA OF OVER AN INCH RAINFALL FROM
BREEZY POINT EAST TO NEAR BROOKSTON.

THE PRECIPITATION IS CAUSED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SLOWLY
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREAD NE MN BY
EARLY MORNING AND NW WI BY LATE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME OF THE
AREAS RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES TODAY AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

 PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES WILL
AMPLIFY AND PUSH SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE U.P. OF
MICH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MDLS SUPPORT THAT A MID LVL LOW WILL
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE REGION TUES MORNING. THE SFC PATTERN THAT
RESULTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MON
NIGHT ...WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS POSSIBLE... UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY WHEN
SFC LOW SHOULD CONCENTRATE NEAR NE WISCONSIN. WITH A DEEPLY
CYCLONIC MOIST CIRCULATION OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
RELATIVELY HIGH PWS...WE MAY SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS.
MDLS VARY SUBSTANTIALLY ON WHERE THE MOST LIKELY HIGH QPF OCCURS BUT
IN GENERAL MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE
INCH TOTALS. THERE WILL BE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE GREATER FORCING THAT
COULD SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. INITIAL GUESSTIMATES SUGGEST FROM THE
ST CROIX VALLEY INTO NWRN WISC MAY SEE HIGHEST TOTALS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH GIVEN CONFLICTING MDL SIGNALS AT THIS TIME. A DRY
INTERLUDE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE MID LVL
FLOW CHANGES IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROF OVER
PACNW/NRN ROCKIES BY END OF WEEK. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO REGION BY THURSDAY HOWEVER MDLS MAY BE TOO FAST WITH ITS
ARRIVAL CONSIDERING SFC HIGH POISED EAST OF REGION AND RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LAYERS. MUCH VACILLATION IN RECENT MDL GUIDANCE OVER HOW THE
PATTERN DEVELOP LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A FRONTAL
BDRY WILL PUSH INTO HE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING
MUCH HIGHER POPS EVENTUALLY. HOWEVER...THE POSITIONING OF THE ACTUAL
SFC BDRY/WAVE WILL BE SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE DLH/HYR SITES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z.
VCSH AT BRD THROUGH 02Z AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR.
EXPECT ALL SITES TO EXPERIENCE BR AND IFR BY 06Z WITH SOME -DZ
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AFTER 15Z WITH
CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE VCNTY OF STORMS...BUT WITH MVFR
VSBYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  69  58  70 /  60  70  60  40
INL  53  73  58  75 /  60  70  60  10
BRD  60  77  61  76 /  60  70  50  20
HYR  61  78  60  71 /  70  70  70  50
ASX  56  75  58  69 /  70  60  70  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...GSF









000
FXUS63 KDLH 180044
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
744 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THUNDER IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION. SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN FA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POPPING JUST N OF
MILLE LACS ATTM. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FACTORS.
MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS IS RAINFALL CHANCES/AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BRD TO DLH. SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER 1.5 INCHES AT BRD AND PINE RIVER.
RADAR ESTIMATES AN 30 MILE WIDE AREA OF OVER AN INCH RAINFALL FROM
BREEZY POINT EAST TO NEAR BROOKSTON.

THE PRECIPITATION IS CAUSED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SLOWLY
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREAD NE MN BY
EARLY MORNING AND NW WI BY LATE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME OF THE
AREAS RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES TODAY AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

 PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES WILL
AMPLIFY AND PUSH SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE U.P. OF
MICH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MDLS SUPPORT THAT A MID LVL LOW WILL
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE REGION TUES MORNING. THE SFC PATTERN THAT
RESULTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MON
NIGHT ...WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS POSSIBLE... UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY WHEN
SFC LOW SHOULD CONCENTRATE NEAR NE WISCONSIN. WITH A DEEPLY
CYCLONIC MOIST CIRCULATION OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
RELATIVELY HIGH PWS...WE MAY SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS.
MDLS VARY SUBSTANTIALLY ON WHERE THE MOST LIKELY HIGH QPF OCCURS BUT
IN GENERAL MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE
INCH TOTALS. THERE WILL BE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE GREATER FORCING THAT
COULD SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. INITIAL GUESSTIMATES SUGGEST FROM THE
ST CROIX VALLEY INTO NWRN WISC MAY SEE HIGHEST TOTALS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH GIVEN CONFLICTING MDL SIGNALS AT THIS TIME. A DRY
INTERLUDE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE MID LVL
FLOW CHANGES IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROF OVER
PACNW/NRN ROCKIES BY END OF WEEK. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO REGION BY THURSDAY HOWEVER MDLS MAY BE TOO FAST WITH ITS
ARRIVAL CONSIDERING SFC HIGH POISED EAST OF REGION AND RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LAYERS. MUCH VACILLATION IN RECENT MDL GUIDANCE OVER HOW THE
PATTERN DEVELOP LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A FRONTAL
BDRY WILL PUSH INTO HE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING
MUCH HIGHER POPS EVENTUALLY. HOWEVER...THE POSITIONING OF THE ACTUAL
SFC BDRY/WAVE WILL BE SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE DLH/HYR SITES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z.
VCSH AT BRD THROUGH 02Z AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR.
EXPECT ALL SITES TO EXPERIENCE BR AND IFR BY 06Z WITH SOME -DZ
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AFTER 15Z WITH
CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE VCNTY OF STORMS...BUT WITH MVFR
VSBYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  69  58  70 /  60  70  60  40
INL  53  73  58  75 /  60  70  60  10
BRD  60  77  61  76 /  60  70  50  20
HYR  61  78  60  71 /  80  70  70  50
ASX  56  75  58  69 /  90  60  70  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 180044
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
744 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 744 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THUNDER IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TONIGHT AND HAVE REMOVED THE
MENTION. SHOWERS WILL BE EXITING THE EASTERN FA IN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. HOWEVER...SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POPPING JUST N OF
MILLE LACS ATTM. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE FACTORS.
MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS IS RAINFALL CHANCES/AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BRD TO DLH. SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER 1.5 INCHES AT BRD AND PINE RIVER.
RADAR ESTIMATES AN 30 MILE WIDE AREA OF OVER AN INCH RAINFALL FROM
BREEZY POINT EAST TO NEAR BROOKSTON.

THE PRECIPITATION IS CAUSED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SLOWLY
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREAD NE MN BY
EARLY MORNING AND NW WI BY LATE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME OF THE
AREAS RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES TODAY AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

 PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES WILL
AMPLIFY AND PUSH SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE U.P. OF
MICH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MDLS SUPPORT THAT A MID LVL LOW WILL
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE REGION TUES MORNING. THE SFC PATTERN THAT
RESULTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MON
NIGHT ...WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS POSSIBLE... UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY WHEN
SFC LOW SHOULD CONCENTRATE NEAR NE WISCONSIN. WITH A DEEPLY
CYCLONIC MOIST CIRCULATION OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
RELATIVELY HIGH PWS...WE MAY SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS.
MDLS VARY SUBSTANTIALLY ON WHERE THE MOST LIKELY HIGH QPF OCCURS BUT
IN GENERAL MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE
INCH TOTALS. THERE WILL BE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE GREATER FORCING THAT
COULD SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. INITIAL GUESSTIMATES SUGGEST FROM THE
ST CROIX VALLEY INTO NWRN WISC MAY SEE HIGHEST TOTALS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH GIVEN CONFLICTING MDL SIGNALS AT THIS TIME. A DRY
INTERLUDE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE MID LVL
FLOW CHANGES IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROF OVER
PACNW/NRN ROCKIES BY END OF WEEK. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO REGION BY THURSDAY HOWEVER MDLS MAY BE TOO FAST WITH ITS
ARRIVAL CONSIDERING SFC HIGH POISED EAST OF REGION AND RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LAYERS. MUCH VACILLATION IN RECENT MDL GUIDANCE OVER HOW THE
PATTERN DEVELOP LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A FRONTAL
BDRY WILL PUSH INTO HE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING
MUCH HIGHER POPS EVENTUALLY. HOWEVER...THE POSITIONING OF THE ACTUAL
SFC BDRY/WAVE WILL BE SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE DLH/HYR SITES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z.
VCSH AT BRD THROUGH 02Z AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR.
EXPECT ALL SITES TO EXPERIENCE BR AND IFR BY 06Z WITH SOME -DZ
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AFTER 15Z WITH
CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE VCNTY OF STORMS...BUT WITH MVFR
VSBYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  69  58  70 /  60  70  60  40
INL  53  73  58  75 /  60  70  60  10
BRD  60  77  61  76 /  60  70  50  20
HYR  61  78  60  71 /  80  70  70  50
ASX  56  75  58  69 /  90  60  70  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...GSF









000
FXUS63 KDLH 172344
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS IS RAINFALL CHANCES/AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BRD TO DLH. SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER 1.5 INCHES AT BRD AND PINE RIVER.
RADAR ESTIMATES AN 30 MILE WIDE AREA OF OVER AN INCH RAINFALL FROM
BREEZY POINT EAST TO NEAR BROOKSTON.

THE PRECIPITATION IS CAUSED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SLOWLY
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREAD NE MN BY
EARLY MORNING AND NW WI BY LATE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME OF THE
AREAS RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES TODAY AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

 PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES WILL
AMPLIFY AND PUSH SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE U.P. OF
MICH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MDLS SUPPORT THAT A MID LVL LOW WILL
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE REGION TUES MORNING. THE SFC PATTERN THAT
RESULTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MON
NIGHT ...WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS POSSIBLE... UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY WHEN
SFC LOW SHOULD CONCENTRATE NEAR NE WISCONSIN. WITH A DEEPLY
CYCLONIC MOIST CIRCULATION OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
RELATIVELY HIGH PWS...WE MAY SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS.
MDLS VARY SUBSTANTIALLY ON WHERE THE MOST LIKELY HIGH QPF OCCURS BUT
IN GENERAL MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE
INCH TOTALS. THERE WILL BE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE GREATER FORCING THAT
COULD SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. INITIAL GUESSTIMATES SUGGEST FROM THE
ST CROIX VALLEY INTO NWRN WISC MAY SEE HIGHEST TOTALS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH GIVEN CONFLICTING MDL SIGNALS AT THIS TIME. A DRY
INTERLUDE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE MID LVL
FLOW CHANGES IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROF OVER
PACNW/NRN ROCKIES BY END OF WEEK. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO REGION BY THURSDAY HOWEVER MDLS MAY BE TOO FAST WITH ITS
ARRIVAL CONSIDERING SFC HIGH POISED EAST OF REGION AND RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LAYERS. MUCH VACILLATION IN RECENT MDL GUIDANCE OVER HOW THE
PATTERN DEVELOP LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A FRONTAL
BDRY WILL PUSH INTO HE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING
MUCH HIGHER POPS EVENTUALLY. HOWEVER...THE POSITIONING OF THE ACTUAL
SFC BDRY/WAVE WILL BE SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING OVER THE DLH/HYR SITES THROUGH ABOUT 02Z.
VCSH AT BRD THROUGH 02Z AS WELL. ELSEWHERE...A MIX OF VFR/MVFR.
EXPECT ALL SITES TO EXPERIENCE BR AND IFR BY 06Z WITH SOME -DZ
POSSIBLE THROUGH ABOUT 15Z. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE SPREADING INTO THE AREA AFTER 15Z WITH
CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR IN THE VCNTY OF STORMS...BUT WITH MVFR
VSBYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  69  58  70 /  60  70  60  40
INL  53  73  58  75 /  60  70  60  10
BRD  60  77  61  76 /  60  70  50  20
HYR  58  78  60  71 /  60  70  70  50
ASX  56  75  58  69 /  60  60  70  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 172048
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS IS RAINFALL CHANCES/AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BRD TO DLH. SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER 1.5 INCHES AT BRD AND PINE RIVER.
RADAR ESTIMATES AN 30 MILE WIDE AREA OF OVER AN INCH RAINFALL FROM
BREEZY POINT EAST TO NEAR BROOKSTON.

THE PRECIPITATION IS CAUSED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SLOWLY
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREAD NE MN BY
EARLY MORNING AND NW WI BY LATE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME OF THE
AREAS RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES TODAY AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

 PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES WILL
AMPLIFY AND PUSH SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE U.P. OF
MICH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MDLS SUPPORT THAT A MID LVL LOW WILL
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE REGION TUES MORNING. THE SFC PATTERN THAT
RESULTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MON
NIGHT ...WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS POSSIBLE... UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY WHEN
SFC LOW SHOULD CONCENTRATE NEAR NE WISCONSIN. WITH A DEEPLY
CYCLONIC MOIST CIRCULATION OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
RELATIVELY HIGH PWS...WE MAY SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS.
MDLS VARY SUBSTANTIALLY ON WHERE THE MOST LIKELY HIGH QPF OCCURS BUT
IN GENERAL MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE
INCH TOTALS. THERE WILL BE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE GREATER FORCING THAT
COULD SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. INITIAL GUESSTIMATES SUGGEST FROM THE
ST CROIX VALLEY INTO NWRN WISC MAY SEE HIGHEST TOTALS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH GIVEN CONFLICTING MDL SIGNALS AT THIS TIME. A DRY
INTERLUDE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE MID LVL
FLOW CHANGES IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROF OVER
PACNW/NRN ROCKIES BY END OF WEEK. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO REGION BY THURSDAY HOWEVER MDLS MAY BE TOO FAST WITH ITS
ARRIVAL CONSIDERING SFC HIGH POISED EAST OF REGION AND RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LAYERS. MUCH VACILLATION IN RECENT MDL GUIDANCE OVER HOW THE
PATTERN DEVELOP LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A FRONTAL
BDRY WILL PUSH INTO HE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING
MUCH HIGHER POPS EVENTUALLY. HOWEVER...THE POSITIONING OF THE ACTUAL
SFC BDRY/WAVE WILL BE SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER SATURATION
LEADS TO LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ALTHOUGH MAIN PRECIP
AREA IS MOVING ACROSS SWRN CWA...TIMING OF PRECIP STILL DIFFICULT
DUE TO DRIER AIR AHEAD OF SYSTEM. THUNDER PROBABILITY GREATEST NEAR
KBRD NEXT 12 HRS OTHERWISE MAINLY RAIN TRANSITIONING TO A
DRIZZLE/FOG REGIME OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KDLH WHERE ADDED
INFLUENCE OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ENHANCE
SATURATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  69  58  70 /  60  70  60  40
INL  53  73  58  75 /  60  70  60  10
BRD  60  77  61  76 /  60  70  50  20
HYR  58  78  60  71 /  60  70  70  50
ASX  56  75  58  69 /  60  60  70  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON








000
FXUS63 KDLH 172048
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERNS IS RAINFALL CHANCES/AMOUNTS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM BRD TO DLH. SOME OF THE HEAVIER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN OVER 1.5 INCHES AT BRD AND PINE RIVER.
RADAR ESTIMATES AN 30 MILE WIDE AREA OF OVER AN INCH RAINFALL FROM
BREEZY POINT EAST TO NEAR BROOKSTON.

THE PRECIPITATION IS CAUSED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE MOVING SLOWLY
THROUGH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. IT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
ENDING AFTER SUNSET. THERE WILL BE A SHORT BREAK LATE TONIGHT
BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST AND OVERSPREAD NE MN BY
EARLY MORNING AND NW WI BY LATE MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL
RANGE FROM 0.50 TO 1.5 INCHES BY MONDAY NIGHT. WITH SOME OF THE
AREAS RECEIVING 1-2 INCHES TODAY AND THE EXPECTED RAINFALL TONIGHT
AND MONDAY...THE HYDRO SITUATION WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

 PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROF EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLIES WILL
AMPLIFY AND PUSH SOUTH FROM THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO THE U.P. OF
MICH BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. THE MDLS SUPPORT THAT A MID LVL LOW WILL
DEVELOP JUST EAST OF THE REGION TUES MORNING. THE SFC PATTERN THAT
RESULTS FROM THIS SYSTEM IS A RATHER BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MON
NIGHT ...WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS POSSIBLE... UNTIL EARLY TUESDAY WHEN
SFC LOW SHOULD CONCENTRATE NEAR NE WISCONSIN. WITH A DEEPLY
CYCLONIC MOIST CIRCULATION OVERHEAD THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND
RELATIVELY HIGH PWS...WE MAY SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP TOTALS.
MDLS VARY SUBSTANTIALLY ON WHERE THE MOST LIKELY HIGH QPF OCCURS BUT
IN GENERAL MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE BETWEEN HALF INCH AND ONE
INCH TOTALS. THERE WILL BE LOCATIONS WITHIN THE GREATER FORCING THAT
COULD SEE CONSIDERABLY MORE. INITIAL GUESSTIMATES SUGGEST FROM THE
ST CROIX VALLEY INTO NWRN WISC MAY SEE HIGHEST TOTALS BUT CONFIDENCE
IS NOT HIGH GIVEN CONFLICTING MDL SIGNALS AT THIS TIME. A DRY
INTERLUDE IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY FOR MOST OF THE CWA BEFORE MID LVL
FLOW CHANGES IN RESPONSE TO AMPLIFICATION OF UPPER TROF OVER
PACNW/NRN ROCKIES BY END OF WEEK. PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY
INTO REGION BY THURSDAY HOWEVER MDLS MAY BE TOO FAST WITH ITS
ARRIVAL CONSIDERING SFC HIGH POISED EAST OF REGION AND RELATIVELY
DRY LOW LAYERS. MUCH VACILLATION IN RECENT MDL GUIDANCE OVER HOW THE
PATTERN DEVELOP LATE WEEK/WEEKEND. GENERAL IDEA IS THAT A FRONTAL
BDRY WILL PUSH INTO HE AREA BY THE END OF THE WEEK. THERE IS A
POTENTIAL FOR WAVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WHICH COULD BRING
MUCH HIGHER POPS EVENTUALLY. HOWEVER...THE POSITIONING OF THE ACTUAL
SFC BDRY/WAVE WILL BE SUBJECT TO MUCH CHANGE SO LOW CONFIDENCE AT
THIS POINT.



&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER SATURATION
LEADS TO LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ALTHOUGH MAIN PRECIP
AREA IS MOVING ACROSS SWRN CWA...TIMING OF PRECIP STILL DIFFICULT
DUE TO DRIER AIR AHEAD OF SYSTEM. THUNDER PROBABILITY GREATEST NEAR
KBRD NEXT 12 HRS OTHERWISE MAINLY RAIN TRANSITIONING TO A
DRIZZLE/FOG REGIME OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KDLH WHERE ADDED
INFLUENCE OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ENHANCE
SATURATION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  69  58  70 /  60  70  60  40
INL  53  73  58  75 /  60  70  60  10
BRD  60  77  61  76 /  60  70  50  20
HYR  58  78  60  71 /  60  70  70  50
ASX  56  75  58  69 /  60  60  70  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON







000
FXUS63 KDLH 171806 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
106 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXTEND POPS FURTHER EAST AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE HRRR...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP WILL HANG
AROUND LONGER AND DRIFT EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALSO...ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.
REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

MS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AT 330 AM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO
THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN FROM A SLOW MOVING
COMPLEX EARLIER IN THE NIGHT STARTED TO BREAK UP AND THE REMNANTS
WERE THE FAIRLY NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NOW MOVING INTO
BRAINERD. TEMPS RANGED FROM NEAR 50 AT GRAND MARAIS TO THE 60S IN
THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE RESOLVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER FOR TODAY
AFTER BACKING OFF QUITE A BIT IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. WILL OBVIOUSLY
HIT THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA HARDEST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD POPS FURTHER NORTH AND EASTWARD AS THE DAY WEARS
ON. WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY IN MUCH OF NW WI AND THE
ARROWHEAD...BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE TWIN PORTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT TONIGHT...AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES CLOSER TO MN.
THE H5 TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL
LARGELY BE OF THE SCATTERED VARIETY...IT SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 70S...BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THE UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE SFC THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND...PUT MOST OF THE PCPN OVR THE NORTHLAND IN STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST MOVES OVR WI ON
TUESDAY...MOST OF THE PCPN WILL END IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVERHEAD AND STRONG LOW
TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF
LINGERING SHOWERS/ AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.  AFTER WEDNESDAY WE SEE A BIG DIVERGENCE OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS...THE ECMWF BRING ANOTHER SFC LOW INTO NWRN MN THURSDAY AND
BRINGING A WARM FRONT NORTH ...AND AS A RESULT...MORE RAIN. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND...HINTS AT A BIT OF SHOWERS ALSO....BUT LITTLE
SFC SYSTEM. THE BIG PICTURE HAS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY...BUT A BROAD TROF IN THE WEST.  THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THE NORTHLAND WILL MAINLY FEEL THE RESULTS OF THE TROF AS IT
DIGS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS COULD MEAN A WET WEEKEND FOR
THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER SATURATION
LEADS TO LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ALTHOUGH MAIN PRECIP
AREA IS MOVING ACROSS SWRN CWA...TIMING OF PRECIP STILL DIFFICULT
DUE TO DRIER AIR AHEAD OF SYSTEM. THUNDER PROBABILITY GREATEST NEAR
KBRD NEXT 12 HRS OTHERWISE MAINLY RAIN TRANSITIONING TO A
DRIZZLE/FOG REGIME OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KDLH WHERE ADDED
INFLUENCE OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ENHANCE
SATURATION.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  54  69  58 /  40  60  70  60
INL  74  53  73  58 /  40  60  70  50
BRD  71  60  77  61 /  70  60  70  50
HYR  73  58  78  59 /  20  60  70  70
ASX  69  56  75  58 /  10  60  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CANNON








000
FXUS63 KDLH 171806 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
106 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXTEND POPS FURTHER EAST AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE HRRR...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRECIP WILL HANG
AROUND LONGER AND DRIFT EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALSO...ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.
REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

MS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AT 330 AM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO
THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN FROM A SLOW MOVING
COMPLEX EARLIER IN THE NIGHT STARTED TO BREAK UP AND THE REMNANTS
WERE THE FAIRLY NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NOW MOVING INTO
BRAINERD. TEMPS RANGED FROM NEAR 50 AT GRAND MARAIS TO THE 60S IN
THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE RESOLVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER FOR TODAY
AFTER BACKING OFF QUITE A BIT IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. WILL OBVIOUSLY
HIT THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA HARDEST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD POPS FURTHER NORTH AND EASTWARD AS THE DAY WEARS
ON. WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY IN MUCH OF NW WI AND THE
ARROWHEAD...BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE TWIN PORTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT TONIGHT...AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES CLOSER TO MN.
THE H5 TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL
LARGELY BE OF THE SCATTERED VARIETY...IT SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 70S...BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THE UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE SFC THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND...PUT MOST OF THE PCPN OVR THE NORTHLAND IN STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST MOVES OVR WI ON
TUESDAY...MOST OF THE PCPN WILL END IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVERHEAD AND STRONG LOW
TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF
LINGERING SHOWERS/ AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.  AFTER WEDNESDAY WE SEE A BIG DIVERGENCE OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS...THE ECMWF BRING ANOTHER SFC LOW INTO NWRN MN THURSDAY AND
BRINGING A WARM FRONT NORTH ...AND AS A RESULT...MORE RAIN. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND...HINTS AT A BIT OF SHOWERS ALSO....BUT LITTLE
SFC SYSTEM. THE BIG PICTURE HAS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY...BUT A BROAD TROF IN THE WEST.  THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THE NORTHLAND WILL MAINLY FEEL THE RESULTS OF THE TROF AS IT
DIGS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS COULD MEAN A WET WEEKEND FOR
THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1256 PM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD AS DEEP LAYER SATURATION
LEADS TO LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ALTHOUGH MAIN PRECIP
AREA IS MOVING ACROSS SWRN CWA...TIMING OF PRECIP STILL DIFFICULT
DUE TO DRIER AIR AHEAD OF SYSTEM. THUNDER PROBABILITY GREATEST NEAR
KBRD NEXT 12 HRS OTHERWISE MAINLY RAIN TRANSITIONING TO A
DRIZZLE/FOG REGIME OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY NEAR KDLH WHERE ADDED
INFLUENCE OF MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR WILL ENHANCE
SATURATION.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  54  69  58 /  40  60  70  60
INL  74  53  73  58 /  40  60  70  50
BRD  71  60  77  61 /  70  60  70  50
HYR  73  58  78  59 /  20  60  70  70
ASX  69  56  75  58 /  10  60  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CANNON







000
FXUS63 KDLH 171501
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1001 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXTEND POPS FURTHER EAST AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE HRRR...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRCIP WILL HANG
AROUND LONGER AND DRIFT EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALSO...ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.
REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

MS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AT 330 AM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO
THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN FROM A SLOW MOVING
COMPLEX EARLIER IN THE NIGHT STARTED TO BREAK UP AND THE REMNANTS
WERE THE FAIRLY NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NOW MOVING INTO
BRAINERD. TEMPS RANGED FROM NEAR 50 AT GRAND MARAIS TO THE 60S IN
THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE RESOLVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER FOR TODAY
AFTER BACKING OFF QUITE A BIT IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. WILL OBVIOUSLY
HIT THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA HARDEST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD POPS FURTHER NORTH AND EASTWARD AS THE DAY WEARS
ON. WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY IN MUCH OF NW WI AND THE
ARROWHEAD...BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE TWIN PORTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT TONIGHT...AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES CLOSER TO MN.
THE H5 TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL
LARGELY BE OF THE SCATTERED VARIETY...IT SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 70S...BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THE UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE SFC THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND...PUT MOST OF THE PCPN OVR THE NORTHLAND IN STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST MOVES OVR WI ON
TUESDAY...MOST OF THE PCPN WILL END IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVERHEAD AND STRONG LOW
TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF
LINGERING SHOWERS/ AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.  AFTER WEDNESDAY WE SEE A BIG DIVERGENCE OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS...THE ECMWF BRING ANOTHER SFC LOW INTO NWRN MN THURSDAY AND
BRINGING A WARM FRONT NORTH ...AND AS A RESULT...MORE RAIN. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND...HINTS AT A BIT OF SHOWERS ALSO....BUT LITTLE
SFC SYSTEM. THE BIG PICTURE HAS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY...BUT A BROAD TROF IN THE WEST.  THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THE NORTHLAND WILL MAINLY FEEL THE RESULTS OF THE TROF AS IT
DIGS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS COULD MEAN A WET WEEKEND FOR
THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM  CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

ATHE AREA WILL BE UNDER CLOUDS TODAY. THIS MORNING SKIES WILL BE
MVFR WITH PATCHES OF IFR...BUT WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR AFT 16Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED OVR THE REGION...ESPECIALL
FROM KRD TO KDLH. CIGS WILL BE LOWER LATER THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  54  69  58 /  20  60  70  60
INL  74  53  73  58 /  40  60  70  50
BRD  70  60  77  61 /  70  60  70  50
HYR  73  58  78  59 /  20  60  70  70
ASX  69  56  75  58 /  10  60  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 171501
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1001 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1000 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

UPDATED FORECAST TO EXTEND POPS FURTHER EAST AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON. LOOKING AT THE HRRR...IT LOOKS LIKE THE PRCIP WILL HANG
AROUND LONGER AND DRIFT EAST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
ALSO...ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A LITTLE DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER/PRECIP.
REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

MS

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

AT 330 AM...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS MOVING INTO
THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN FROM A SLOW MOVING
COMPLEX EARLIER IN THE NIGHT STARTED TO BREAK UP AND THE REMNANTS
WERE THE FAIRLY NARROW LINE OF SHOWERS/STORMS NOW MOVING INTO
BRAINERD. TEMPS RANGED FROM NEAR 50 AT GRAND MARAIS TO THE 60S IN
THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY WILL BE RESOLVING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER FOR TODAY
AFTER BACKING OFF QUITE A BIT IN SUBSEQUENT RUNS. WILL OBVIOUSLY
HIT THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA HARDEST EARLY THIS MORNING...AND THEN
GRADUALLY SPREAD POPS FURTHER NORTH AND EASTWARD AS THE DAY WEARS
ON. WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY IN MUCH OF NW WI AND THE
ARROWHEAD...BUT SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ABLE
TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO THE TWIN PORTS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT TONIGHT...AS A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE PUSHES CLOSER TO MN.
THE H5 TROUGH AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON MONDAY. WHILE THE PRECIPITATION TODAY WILL
LARGELY BE OF THE SCATTERED VARIETY...IT SHOULD BECOME MORE
WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES APPROACH 1.75 INCHES. COULD BE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL EVENTS THROUGH THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY WITH SLOW MOVING
CONVECTION. HIGHS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 70S...BUT THERE WILL BE
SOME 60S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

THE UPPER TROF WILL STILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND UNDER CYCLONIC FLOW AND CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. AT THE SFC THE LOW PRESSURE WILL
FINALLY MOVES THROUGH MONDAY...WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND...PUT MOST OF THE PCPN OVR THE NORTHLAND IN STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT. AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST MOVES OVR WI ON
TUESDAY...MOST OF THE PCPN WILL END IN THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL OVERHEAD AND STRONG LOW
TO MID LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. KEPT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF
LINGERING SHOWERS/ AND STORMS INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW.  AFTER WEDNESDAY WE SEE A BIG DIVERGENCE OF THE LONG RANGE
MODELS...THE ECMWF BRING ANOTHER SFC LOW INTO NWRN MN THURSDAY AND
BRINGING A WARM FRONT NORTH ...AND AS A RESULT...MORE RAIN. THE GFS
ON THE OTHER HAND...HINTS AT A BIT OF SHOWERS ALSO....BUT LITTLE
SFC SYSTEM. THE BIG PICTURE HAS A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE COUNTRY...BUT A BROAD TROF IN THE WEST.  THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD THE NORTHLAND WILL MAINLY FEEL THE RESULTS OF THE TROF AS IT
DIGS INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THIS COULD MEAN A WET WEEKEND FOR
THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 643 AM  CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

ATHE AREA WILL BE UNDER CLOUDS TODAY. THIS MORNING SKIES WILL BE
MVFR WITH PATCHES OF IFR...BUT WILL QUICKLY LIFT TO VFR AFT 16Z.
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE SCATTERED OVR THE REGION...ESPECIALL
FROM KRD TO KDLH. CIGS WILL BE LOWER LATER THIS EVENING WITH MORE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  54  69  58 /  20  60  70  60
INL  74  53  73  58 /  40  60  70  50
BRD  70  60  77  61 /  70  60  70  50
HYR  73  58  78  59 /  20  60  70  70
ASX  69  56  75  58 /  10  60  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC








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