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000
FXUS63 KDLH 211439
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 14Z.
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IS HELPING TO
KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND. PRIOR FORECAST OF CLEARING SKIES STILL ON
TRACK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED
MAX TEMPS A BIT WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ARROWHEAD.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD
COVER...THEN EMPHASIS SHIFTS TO RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. A STRATUS DECK WITH BASES FROM AROUND 1500FT
TO 2500FT COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF MY CWA MAINLY CLOUD FREE. CLOUD FREE AREAS WILL SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. THE 00Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED THE
MOISTURE WAS RATHER SHALLOW. THESE CLOUDS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE
NOT MADE MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS SO FAR THIS MORNING. THEY WERE
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST ACROSS ITASCA/KOOCHICHING COUNTIES.
THERE WERE BREAKS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI WITH
CLEARING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE INVERSION LOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH REALLY DRY AIR ABOVE IT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CLEARING WILL OCCUR TODAY...RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HOLD ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN EAST FLOW
WILL DELAY CLEARING. THE CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES AND SOME ADJUSTMENT WILL LIKELY NEED TO OCCUR AS
THE CLOUD TRENDS BECOME MORE LIKELY TODAY. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST
TEMPS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO SIREN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
FIFTIES. WE ARE COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50.
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AREAS TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
STARTS TO TIGHTEN THERE.

WE HELD ONTO MORE CLOUDS IN THE ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE HIGH DEPARTS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND AN INCH
WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1
INCH IS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE
ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY...BUT WE FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM AND BRING POPS FURTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST. WE HAVE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF OUR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AS FAR EAST AS THE WI/MN BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AREAS. THE FORCING IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING IN WE PREFER THE FASTER GFS/NAM. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY...SOME THUNDER COULD
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW OVER NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN EARLIER RUNS...SO INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE LIKELY.

WARM SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. SUNNIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE WAS A WIDE BAND OF OVC MVFR CIGS OVER NW WISCONSIN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...INCLUDING THE
KHYR/KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. COOL AND HUMID EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS BAND FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL LIFTING AND SCATTERING LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE MVFR
COULD RETURN TO THE KHIB AND KHYR LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  36  54  45 /  10   0  10  70
INL  50  36  58  45 /   0   0  40  70
BRD  55  37  58  47 /   0   0  40  70
HYR  52  29  57  44 /   0   0   0  70
ASX  49  32  58  43 /  10   0   0  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 211439
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 14Z.
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IS HELPING TO
KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND. PRIOR FORECAST OF CLEARING SKIES STILL ON
TRACK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED
MAX TEMPS A BIT WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ARROWHEAD.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD
COVER...THEN EMPHASIS SHIFTS TO RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. A STRATUS DECK WITH BASES FROM AROUND 1500FT
TO 2500FT COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF MY CWA MAINLY CLOUD FREE. CLOUD FREE AREAS WILL SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. THE 00Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED THE
MOISTURE WAS RATHER SHALLOW. THESE CLOUDS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE
NOT MADE MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS SO FAR THIS MORNING. THEY WERE
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST ACROSS ITASCA/KOOCHICHING COUNTIES.
THERE WERE BREAKS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI WITH
CLEARING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE INVERSION LOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH REALLY DRY AIR ABOVE IT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CLEARING WILL OCCUR TODAY...RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HOLD ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN EAST FLOW
WILL DELAY CLEARING. THE CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES AND SOME ADJUSTMENT WILL LIKELY NEED TO OCCUR AS
THE CLOUD TRENDS BECOME MORE LIKELY TODAY. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST
TEMPS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO SIREN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
FIFTIES. WE ARE COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50.
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AREAS TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
STARTS TO TIGHTEN THERE.

WE HELD ONTO MORE CLOUDS IN THE ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE HIGH DEPARTS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND AN INCH
WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1
INCH IS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE
ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY...BUT WE FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM AND BRING POPS FURTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST. WE HAVE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF OUR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AS FAR EAST AS THE WI/MN BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AREAS. THE FORCING IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING IN WE PREFER THE FASTER GFS/NAM. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY...SOME THUNDER COULD
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW OVER NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN EARLIER RUNS...SO INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE LIKELY.

WARM SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. SUNNIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE WAS A WIDE BAND OF OVC MVFR CIGS OVER NW WISCONSIN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...INCLUDING THE
KHYR/KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. COOL AND HUMID EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS BAND FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL LIFTING AND SCATTERING LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE MVFR
COULD RETURN TO THE KHIB AND KHYR LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  36  54  45 /  10   0  10  70
INL  50  36  58  45 /   0   0  40  70
BRD  55  37  58  47 /   0   0  40  70
HYR  52  29  57  44 /   0   0   0  70
ASX  49  32  58  43 /  10   0   0  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 211144 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD
COVER...THEN EMPHASIS SHIFTS TO RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. A STRATUS DECK WITH BASES FROM AROUND 1500FT
TO 2500FT COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF MY CWA MAINLY CLOUD FREE. CLOUD FREE AREAS WILL SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. THE 00Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED THE
MOISTURE WAS RATHER SHALLOW. THESE CLOUDS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE
NOT MADE MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS SO FAR THIS MORNING. THEY WERE
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST ACROSS ITASCA/KOOCHICHING COUNTIES.
THERE WERE BREAKS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI WITH
CLEARING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE INVERSION LOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH REALLY DRY AIR ABOVE IT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CLEARING WILL OCCUR TODAY...RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HOLD ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN EAST FLOW
WILL DELAY CLEARING. THE CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES AND SOME ADJUSTMENT WILL LIKELY NEED TO OCCUR AS
THE CLOUD TRENDS BECOME MORE LIKELY TODAY. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST
TEMPS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO SIREN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
FIFTIES. WE ARE COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50.
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AREAS TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
STARTS TO TIGHTEN THERE.

WE HELD ONTO MORE CLOUDS IN THE ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE HIGH DEPARTS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND AN INCH
WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1
INCH IS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE
ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY...BUT WE FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM AND BRING POPS FURTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST. WE HAVE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF OUR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AS FAR EAST AS THE WI/MN BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AREAS. THE FORCING IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING IN WE PREFER THE FASTER GFS/NAM. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY...SOME THUNDER COULD
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW OVER NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN EARLIER RUNS...SO INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE LIKELY.

WARM SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. SUNNIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE WAS A WIDE BAND OF OVC MVFR CIGS OVER NW WISCONSIN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...INCLUDING THE
KHYR/KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. COOL AND HUMID EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS BAND FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL LIFTING AND SCATTERING LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE MVFR
COULD RETURN TO THE KHIB AND KHYR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  36  54  45 /  10   0  10  70
INL  54  36  58  45 /   0   0  40  70
BRD  59  37  58  47 /   0   0  40  70
HYR  53  29  57  44 /   0   0   0  70
ASX  50  32  58  43 /  10   0   0  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 211144 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD
COVER...THEN EMPHASIS SHIFTS TO RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. A STRATUS DECK WITH BASES FROM AROUND 1500FT
TO 2500FT COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF MY CWA MAINLY CLOUD FREE. CLOUD FREE AREAS WILL SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. THE 00Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED THE
MOISTURE WAS RATHER SHALLOW. THESE CLOUDS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE
NOT MADE MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS SO FAR THIS MORNING. THEY WERE
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST ACROSS ITASCA/KOOCHICHING COUNTIES.
THERE WERE BREAKS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI WITH
CLEARING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE INVERSION LOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH REALLY DRY AIR ABOVE IT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CLEARING WILL OCCUR TODAY...RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HOLD ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN EAST FLOW
WILL DELAY CLEARING. THE CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES AND SOME ADJUSTMENT WILL LIKELY NEED TO OCCUR AS
THE CLOUD TRENDS BECOME MORE LIKELY TODAY. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST
TEMPS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO SIREN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
FIFTIES. WE ARE COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50.
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AREAS TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
STARTS TO TIGHTEN THERE.

WE HELD ONTO MORE CLOUDS IN THE ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE HIGH DEPARTS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND AN INCH
WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1
INCH IS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE
ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY...BUT WE FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM AND BRING POPS FURTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST. WE HAVE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF OUR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AS FAR EAST AS THE WI/MN BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AREAS. THE FORCING IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING IN WE PREFER THE FASTER GFS/NAM. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY...SOME THUNDER COULD
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW OVER NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN EARLIER RUNS...SO INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE LIKELY.

WARM SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. SUNNIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE WAS A WIDE BAND OF OVC MVFR CIGS OVER NW WISCONSIN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...INCLUDING THE
KHYR/KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. COOL AND HUMID EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS BAND FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL LIFTING AND SCATTERING LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE MVFR
COULD RETURN TO THE KHIB AND KHYR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  36  54  45 /  10   0  10  70
INL  54  36  58  45 /   0   0  40  70
BRD  59  37  58  47 /   0   0  40  70
HYR  53  29  57  44 /   0   0   0  70
ASX  50  32  58  43 /  10   0   0  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 211144 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD
COVER...THEN EMPHASIS SHIFTS TO RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. A STRATUS DECK WITH BASES FROM AROUND 1500FT
TO 2500FT COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF MY CWA MAINLY CLOUD FREE. CLOUD FREE AREAS WILL SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. THE 00Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED THE
MOISTURE WAS RATHER SHALLOW. THESE CLOUDS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE
NOT MADE MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS SO FAR THIS MORNING. THEY WERE
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST ACROSS ITASCA/KOOCHICHING COUNTIES.
THERE WERE BREAKS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI WITH
CLEARING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE INVERSION LOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH REALLY DRY AIR ABOVE IT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CLEARING WILL OCCUR TODAY...RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HOLD ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN EAST FLOW
WILL DELAY CLEARING. THE CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES AND SOME ADJUSTMENT WILL LIKELY NEED TO OCCUR AS
THE CLOUD TRENDS BECOME MORE LIKELY TODAY. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST
TEMPS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO SIREN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
FIFTIES. WE ARE COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50.
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AREAS TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
STARTS TO TIGHTEN THERE.

WE HELD ONTO MORE CLOUDS IN THE ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE HIGH DEPARTS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND AN INCH
WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1
INCH IS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE
ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY...BUT WE FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM AND BRING POPS FURTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST. WE HAVE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF OUR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AS FAR EAST AS THE WI/MN BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AREAS. THE FORCING IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING IN WE PREFER THE FASTER GFS/NAM. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY...SOME THUNDER COULD
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW OVER NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN EARLIER RUNS...SO INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE LIKELY.

WARM SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. SUNNIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE WAS A WIDE BAND OF OVC MVFR CIGS OVER NW WISCONSIN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...INCLUDING THE
KHYR/KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. COOL AND HUMID EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS BAND FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL LIFTING AND SCATTERING LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE MVFR
COULD RETURN TO THE KHIB AND KHYR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  36  54  45 /  10   0  10  70
INL  54  36  58  45 /   0   0  40  70
BRD  59  37  58  47 /   0   0  40  70
HYR  53  29  57  44 /   0   0   0  70
ASX  50  32  58  43 /  10   0   0  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 211144 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD
COVER...THEN EMPHASIS SHIFTS TO RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. A STRATUS DECK WITH BASES FROM AROUND 1500FT
TO 2500FT COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF MY CWA MAINLY CLOUD FREE. CLOUD FREE AREAS WILL SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. THE 00Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED THE
MOISTURE WAS RATHER SHALLOW. THESE CLOUDS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE
NOT MADE MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS SO FAR THIS MORNING. THEY WERE
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST ACROSS ITASCA/KOOCHICHING COUNTIES.
THERE WERE BREAKS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI WITH
CLEARING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE INVERSION LOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH REALLY DRY AIR ABOVE IT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CLEARING WILL OCCUR TODAY...RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HOLD ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN EAST FLOW
WILL DELAY CLEARING. THE CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES AND SOME ADJUSTMENT WILL LIKELY NEED TO OCCUR AS
THE CLOUD TRENDS BECOME MORE LIKELY TODAY. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST
TEMPS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO SIREN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
FIFTIES. WE ARE COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50.
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AREAS TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
STARTS TO TIGHTEN THERE.

WE HELD ONTO MORE CLOUDS IN THE ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE HIGH DEPARTS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND AN INCH
WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1
INCH IS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE
ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY...BUT WE FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM AND BRING POPS FURTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST. WE HAVE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF OUR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AS FAR EAST AS THE WI/MN BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AREAS. THE FORCING IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING IN WE PREFER THE FASTER GFS/NAM. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY...SOME THUNDER COULD
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW OVER NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN EARLIER RUNS...SO INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE LIKELY.

WARM SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. SUNNIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

THERE WAS A WIDE BAND OF OVC MVFR CIGS OVER NW WISCONSIN AND INTO
PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING...INCLUDING THE
KHYR/KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. COOL AND HUMID EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL HELP MAINTAIN THIS BAND FOR A TIME THIS MORNING.
THERE SHOULD BE GRADUAL LIFTING AND SCATTERING LATE THIS MORNING
AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. THE MVFR
COULD RETURN TO THE KHIB AND KHYR LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  36  54  45 /  10   0  10  70
INL  54  36  58  45 /   0   0  40  70
BRD  59  37  58  47 /   0   0  40  70
HYR  53  29  57  44 /   0   0   0  70
ASX  50  32  58  43 /  10   0   0  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 210829
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
329 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD
COVER...THEN EMPHASIS SHIFTS TO RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. A STRATUS DECK WITH BASES FROM AROUND 1500FT
TO 2500FT COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF MY CWA MAINLY CLOUD FREE. CLOUD FREE AREAS WILL SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. THE 00Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED THE
MOISTURE WAS RATHER SHALLOW. THESE CLOUDS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE
NOT MADE MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS SO FAR THIS MORNING. THEY WERE
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST ACROSS ITASCA/KOOCHICHING COUNTIES.
THERE WERE BREAKS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI WITH
CLEARING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE INVERSION LOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH REALLY DRY AIR ABOVE IT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CLEARING WILL OCCUR TODAY...RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HOLD ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN EAST FLOW
WILL DELAY CLEARING. THE CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES AND SOME ADJUSTMENT WILL LIKELY NEED TO OCCUR AS
THE CLOUD TRENDS BECOME MORE LIKELY TODAY. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST
TEMPS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO SIREN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
FIFTIES. WE ARE COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50.
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AREAS TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
STARTS TO TIGHTEN THERE.

WE HELD ONTO MORE CLOUDS IN THE ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE HIGH DEPARTS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND AN INCH
WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1
INCH IS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE
ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY...BUT WE FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM AND BRING POPS FURTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST. WE HAVE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF OUR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AS FAR EAST AS THE WI/MN BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AREAS. THE FORCING IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING IN WE PREFER THE FASTER GFS/NAM. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY...SOME THUNDER COULD
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW OVER NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN EARLIER RUNS...SO INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE LIKELY.

WARM SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. SUNNIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LOCAL FOG
IN THE KBRD AREA COULD RESULT IN IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  36  54  45 /  10   0  10  70
INL  54  36  58  45 /   0   0  40  70
BRD  59  37  58  47 /   0   0  40  70
HYR  53  29  57  44 /   0   0   0  70
ASX  50  32  58  43 /  10   0   0  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 210829
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
329 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD
COVER...THEN EMPHASIS SHIFTS TO RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. A STRATUS DECK WITH BASES FROM AROUND 1500FT
TO 2500FT COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF MY CWA MAINLY CLOUD FREE. CLOUD FREE AREAS WILL SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. THE 00Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED THE
MOISTURE WAS RATHER SHALLOW. THESE CLOUDS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE
NOT MADE MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS SO FAR THIS MORNING. THEY WERE
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST ACROSS ITASCA/KOOCHICHING COUNTIES.
THERE WERE BREAKS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI WITH
CLEARING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE INVERSION LOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH REALLY DRY AIR ABOVE IT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CLEARING WILL OCCUR TODAY...RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HOLD ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN EAST FLOW
WILL DELAY CLEARING. THE CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES AND SOME ADJUSTMENT WILL LIKELY NEED TO OCCUR AS
THE CLOUD TRENDS BECOME MORE LIKELY TODAY. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST
TEMPS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO SIREN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
FIFTIES. WE ARE COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50.
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AREAS TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
STARTS TO TIGHTEN THERE.

WE HELD ONTO MORE CLOUDS IN THE ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE HIGH DEPARTS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND AN INCH
WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1
INCH IS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE
ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY...BUT WE FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM AND BRING POPS FURTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST. WE HAVE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF OUR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AS FAR EAST AS THE WI/MN BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AREAS. THE FORCING IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING IN WE PREFER THE FASTER GFS/NAM. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY...SOME THUNDER COULD
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW OVER NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN EARLIER RUNS...SO INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE LIKELY.

WARM SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. SUNNIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LOCAL FOG
IN THE KBRD AREA COULD RESULT IN IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  36  54  45 /  10   0  10  70
INL  54  36  58  45 /   0   0  40  70
BRD  59  37  58  47 /   0   0  40  70
HYR  53  29  57  44 /   0   0   0  70
ASX  50  32  58  43 /  10   0   0  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/DAP









000
FXUS63 KDLH 210526 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.




UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

ONE LAST CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY WAS MOVING OVER THE FA AS OF
19Z. THIS WAS RESULTING IN CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS AREA OF VORTICITY. SFC
RIDGING WAS ALREADY FOUND OVER THE FA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH E INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND RE-ENFORCE THE SFC
RIDGING. THE CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
EDGES OF THE FA THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING
THE FA IN A WAA RETURN FLOW REGIME. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERODE AWAY THE LEFT OVER CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...SFC WIND WILL BE FROM THE COOLER LAKE AND KEEP MAX TEMPS
FROM WARMING OUT OF THE 40S. MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL OCCUR OVER
THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEEK.  IT WILL PULL A
NICE FEED OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT ON FRIDAY...AND WE SHOULD GET AN
AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE ARE
MARGINAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THUNDER...SO HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO IT.  PW VALUES
ARE UP IN THE 1.0 TO 1.25 RANGE...ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY
SO.  WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S DESPITE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO HOLD THINGS DOWN.  CLOUDS TO ALSO
HOLD MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP IN THE 40S.  THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE ENOUGH FOR HIGHS TO GET
INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S...BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING THIS MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED.  MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 40S
WITH CLOUDS STILL IN THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND AFFECT CANADA WITH
A PRECIPITATION EVENT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MIGHT GET A SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND CLOUDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THE
SYSTEM SENDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALSO
SUPPRESSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL COOL SATURDAY OFF
SOME WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TEMPORARILY ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP OVER
THE ROCKIES THOUGH...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.  SUNDAY
TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY TO BE PUSHED BACK DOWN TO
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA.  HAVE LEFT PRECIP AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING A WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LOCAL FOG
IN THE KBRD AREA COULD RESULT IN IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  54  44  55 /   0  10  50  50
INL  37  59  45  59 /   0  20  60  30
BRD  38  57  47  61 /   0  30  60  10
HYR  33  56  42  55 /   0   0  40  60
ASX  33  57  42  56 /   0   0  30  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 210526 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.




UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

ONE LAST CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY WAS MOVING OVER THE FA AS OF
19Z. THIS WAS RESULTING IN CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS AREA OF VORTICITY. SFC
RIDGING WAS ALREADY FOUND OVER THE FA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH E INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND RE-ENFORCE THE SFC
RIDGING. THE CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
EDGES OF THE FA THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING
THE FA IN A WAA RETURN FLOW REGIME. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERODE AWAY THE LEFT OVER CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...SFC WIND WILL BE FROM THE COOLER LAKE AND KEEP MAX TEMPS
FROM WARMING OUT OF THE 40S. MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL OCCUR OVER
THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEEK.  IT WILL PULL A
NICE FEED OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT ON FRIDAY...AND WE SHOULD GET AN
AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE ARE
MARGINAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THUNDER...SO HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO IT.  PW VALUES
ARE UP IN THE 1.0 TO 1.25 RANGE...ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY
SO.  WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S DESPITE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO HOLD THINGS DOWN.  CLOUDS TO ALSO
HOLD MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP IN THE 40S.  THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE ENOUGH FOR HIGHS TO GET
INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S...BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING THIS MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED.  MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 40S
WITH CLOUDS STILL IN THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND AFFECT CANADA WITH
A PRECIPITATION EVENT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MIGHT GET A SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND CLOUDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THE
SYSTEM SENDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALSO
SUPPRESSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL COOL SATURDAY OFF
SOME WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TEMPORARILY ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP OVER
THE ROCKIES THOUGH...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.  SUNDAY
TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY TO BE PUSHED BACK DOWN TO
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA.  HAVE LEFT PRECIP AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING A WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE TAF
SITES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SOME LOCAL FOG
IN THE KBRD AREA COULD RESULT IN IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS. CONDITIONS
WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY BY LATE MORNING TUESDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  54  44  55 /   0  10  50  50
INL  37  59  45  59 /   0  20  60  30
BRD  38  57  47  61 /   0  30  60  10
HYR  33  56  42  55 /   0   0  40  60
ASX  33  57  42  56 /   0   0  30  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 202345
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

ONE LAST CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY WAS MOVING OVER THE FA AS OF
19Z. THIS WAS RESULTING IN CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS AREA OF VORTICITY. SFC
RIDGING WAS ALREADY FOUND OVER THE FA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH E INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND RE-ENFORCE THE SFC
RIDGING. THE CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
EDGES OF THE FA THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING
THE FA IN A WAA RETURN FLOW REGIME. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERODE AWAY THE LEFT OVER CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...SFC WIND WILL BE FROM THE COOLER LAKE AND KEEP MAX TEMPS
FROM WARMING OUT OF THE 40S. MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL OCCUR OVER
THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEEK.  IT WILL PULL A
NICE FEED OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT ON FRIDAY...AND WE SHOULD GET AN
AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE ARE
MARGINAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THUNDER...SO HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO IT.  PW VALUES
ARE UP IN THE 1.0 TO 1.25 RANGE...ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY
SO.  WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S DESPITE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO HOLD THINGS DOWN.  CLOUDS TO ALSO
HOLD MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP IN THE 40S.  THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE ENOUGH FOR HIGHS TO GET
INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S...BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING THIS MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED.  MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 40S
WITH CLOUDS STILL IN THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND AFFECT CANADA WITH
A PRECIPITATION EVENT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MIGHT GET A SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND CLOUDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THE
SYSTEM SENDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALSO
SUPPRESSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL COOL SATURDAY OFF
SOME WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TEMPORARILY ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP OVER
THE ROCKIES THOUGH...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.  SUNDAY
TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY TO BE PUSHED BACK DOWN TO
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA.  HAVE LEFT PRECIP AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING A WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR CIGS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL LIKELY BE KINL AND KBRD. KINL IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OR AT LEAST PARTIALLY
CLEAR. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER AND
MAY REACH INTO THE IFR RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY ON
TUESDAY...AS DRIER AIR ACTS TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  48  36  54 /   0   0   0  10
INL  31  53  37  59 /   0   0   0  20
BRD  33  55  38  57 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  30  52  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  33  49  33  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 202345
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

ONE LAST CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY WAS MOVING OVER THE FA AS OF
19Z. THIS WAS RESULTING IN CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS AREA OF VORTICITY. SFC
RIDGING WAS ALREADY FOUND OVER THE FA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH E INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND RE-ENFORCE THE SFC
RIDGING. THE CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
EDGES OF THE FA THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING
THE FA IN A WAA RETURN FLOW REGIME. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERODE AWAY THE LEFT OVER CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...SFC WIND WILL BE FROM THE COOLER LAKE AND KEEP MAX TEMPS
FROM WARMING OUT OF THE 40S. MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL OCCUR OVER
THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEEK.  IT WILL PULL A
NICE FEED OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT ON FRIDAY...AND WE SHOULD GET AN
AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE ARE
MARGINAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THUNDER...SO HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO IT.  PW VALUES
ARE UP IN THE 1.0 TO 1.25 RANGE...ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY
SO.  WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S DESPITE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO HOLD THINGS DOWN.  CLOUDS TO ALSO
HOLD MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP IN THE 40S.  THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE ENOUGH FOR HIGHS TO GET
INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S...BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING THIS MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED.  MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 40S
WITH CLOUDS STILL IN THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND AFFECT CANADA WITH
A PRECIPITATION EVENT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MIGHT GET A SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND CLOUDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THE
SYSTEM SENDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALSO
SUPPRESSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL COOL SATURDAY OFF
SOME WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TEMPORARILY ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP OVER
THE ROCKIES THOUGH...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.  SUNDAY
TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY TO BE PUSHED BACK DOWN TO
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA.  HAVE LEFT PRECIP AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING A WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

MUCH OF THE CWA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MVFR CIGS FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL LIKELY BE KINL AND KBRD. KINL IS
EXPECTED TO CLEAR IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...OR AT LEAST PARTIALLY
CLEAR. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD SEE CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER AND
MAY REACH INTO THE IFR RANGE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MARKEDLY ON
TUESDAY...AS DRIER AIR ACTS TO BREAK UP THE LOW CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  48  36  54 /   0   0   0  10
INL  31  53  37  59 /   0   0   0  20
BRD  33  55  38  57 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  30  52  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  33  49  33  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 202021
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

ONE LAST CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY WAS MOVING OVER THE FA AS OF
19Z. THIS WAS RESULTING IN CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS AREA OF VORTICITY. SFC
RIDGING WAS ALREADY FOUND OVER THE FA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH E INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND RE-ENFORCE THE SFC
RIDGING. THE CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
EDGES OF THE FA THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING
THE FA IN A WAA RETURN FLOW REGIME. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERODE AWAY THE LEFT OVER CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...SFC WIND WILL BE FROM THE COOLER LAKE AND KEEP MAX TEMPS
FROM WARMING OUT OF THE 40S. MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL OCCUR OVER
THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEEK.  IT WILL PULL A
NICE FEED OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT ON FRIDAY...AND WE SHOULD GET AN
AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE ARE
MARGINAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THUNDER...SO HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO IT.  PW VALUES
ARE UP IN THE 1.0 TO 1.25 RANGE...ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY
SO.  WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S DESPITE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO HOLD THINGS DOWN.  CLOUDS TO ALSO
HOLD MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP IN THE 40S.  THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE ENOUGH FOR HIGHS TO GET
INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S...BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING THIS MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED.  MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 40S
WITH CLOUDS STILL IN THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND AFFECT CANADA WITH
A PRECIPITATION EVENT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MIGHT GET A SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND CLOUDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THE
SYSTEM SENDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALSO
SUPPRESSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL COOL SATURDAY OFF
SOME WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TEMPORARILY ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP OVER
THE ROCKIES THOUGH...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.  SUNDAY
TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY TO BE PUSHED BACK DOWN TO
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA.  HAVE LEFT PRECIP AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING A WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP PLENTY OF STRATUS OVER THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH CIGS MAINLY MVFR. SOME BREAKS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING...BUT THEN STRATUS SHOULD FILL
IN AGAIN AND THEN SLOWLY LOWER. KDLH AND KHYR MAY LOWER TO IFR
AFTER 09Z TONIGHT....LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z TUESDAY. HAVE
LEFT IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z FOR NOW AS END TIME IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE KHIB AND KINL TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. KBRD IS NOT UNDER THE STRATUS...THOUGH IT
MAY GET SOME BROKEN MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE KBRD TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  48  36  54 /   0   0   0  10
INL  31  53  37  59 /   0   0   0  20
BRD  33  55  38  57 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  30  52  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  33  49  33  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 202021
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

ONE LAST CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY WAS MOVING OVER THE FA AS OF
19Z. THIS WAS RESULTING IN CLOUD COVER OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS AREA OF VORTICITY. SFC
RIDGING WAS ALREADY FOUND OVER THE FA. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH E INTO THE FA TONIGHT AND RE-ENFORCE THE SFC
RIDGING. THE CLOUDS WILL DISPERSE OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
EDGES OF THE FA THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...AN EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP SOME CLOUDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ON TUESDAY...THE SFC HIGH DRIFTS OVER SOUTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LEAVING
THE FA IN A WAA RETURN FLOW REGIME. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ADVECT IN
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND ERODE AWAY THE LEFT OVER CLOUDS.
HOWEVER...SFC WIND WILL BE FROM THE COOLER LAKE AND KEEP MAX TEMPS
FROM WARMING OUT OF THE 40S. MAX TEMPS IN THE 50S WILL OCCUR OVER
THE FAR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

A FAIRLY STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS
THE MIDWEST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THIS WEEK.  IT WILL PULL A
NICE FEED OF MOISTURE AHEAD OF IT ON FRIDAY...AND WE SHOULD GET AN
AREA OF SHOWERS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY
LATE WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY BEFORE
ENDING THURSDAY NIGHT.  MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MUCAPE ARE
MARGINAL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THUNDER...SO HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW AND CAN RE-EVALUATE AS WE GET CLOSER TO IT.  PW VALUES
ARE UP IN THE 1.0 TO 1.25 RANGE...ABOVE NORMAL BUT NOT EXCESSIVELY
SO.  WEDNESDAY HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S DESPITE THE SOUTHEAST FLOW
WITH THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO HOLD THINGS DOWN.  CLOUDS TO ALSO
HOLD MIN TEMPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT UP IN THE 40S.  THE COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH ON THURSDAY SHOULD MOVE THROUGH LATE ENOUGH FOR HIGHS TO GET
INTO THE 50S AND LOW 60S...BUT DEPENDING ON TIMING THIS MAY NEED TO
BE LOWERED.  MIN TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT TO ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 40S
WITH CLOUDS STILL IN THE AREA.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY. A SHORTWAVE
IS EXPECTED TO RUN OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND AFFECT CANADA WITH
A PRECIPITATION EVENT FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THIS SHOULD BE
FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO LEAVE THE FORECAST AREA DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE WARMER THAN NORMAL IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE
MIGHT GET A SURGE OF COLDER AIR AND CLOUDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT THE
SYSTEM SENDS INTO THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALSO
SUPPRESSING THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING. THIS WILL COOL SATURDAY OFF
SOME WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S.

SUNDAY THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN TEMPORARILY ALONG WITH A
WEAK SURFACE RIDGE.  AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE SETTING UP OVER
THE ROCKIES THOUGH...AND WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EARLY
PART OF NEXT WEEK.  THIS BRINGS PRECIPITATION CHANCES AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.  SUNDAY
TEMPS TO BE A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL...ONLY TO BE PUSHED BACK DOWN TO
NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL FOR MONDAY AS THE COLD AIR SURGES INTO THE
AREA.  HAVE LEFT PRECIP AS ALL RAIN FOR NOW...BUT THIS SYSTEM MAY
BRING A WINTRY MIX MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP PLENTY OF STRATUS OVER THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH CIGS MAINLY MVFR. SOME BREAKS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING...BUT THEN STRATUS SHOULD FILL
IN AGAIN AND THEN SLOWLY LOWER. KDLH AND KHYR MAY LOWER TO IFR
AFTER 09Z TONIGHT....LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z TUESDAY. HAVE
LEFT IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z FOR NOW AS END TIME IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE KHIB AND KINL TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. KBRD IS NOT UNDER THE STRATUS...THOUGH IT
MAY GET SOME BROKEN MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE KBRD TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  48  36  54 /   0   0   0  10
INL  31  53  37  59 /   0   0   0  20
BRD  33  55  38  57 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  30  52  33  56 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  33  49  33  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE






000
FXUS63 KDLH 201745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
A TROUGH SWINGS EAST. A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
OCCUR TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. A STRATUS DECK
WITH BASES FROM 1200-3500FT WAS OCCURRING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW THIS CLOUD EXPANDING SOUTH TODAY AND THE STRONGER INVERSION
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND
HOLD OVER THE EAST. WHERE EXACTLY THE LINE OF CLEARING SETS UP IS
STILL IN QUESTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AND WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR CLEAR OUT. WE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY
FOR MOST AREAS...THEN DECREASED IT TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
OCCUR AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDINESS. IN ADDITION TO THE
CLOUD ISSUES...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND +6C OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...TO -2C EAST. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION AND COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD TODAY.

THERE MAY BE FEW SHOWERS TODAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY THIS
MORNING OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN
WISCONSIN ZONES. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SOME ECHOES HEADED
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ARROWHEAD AS OF 0830Z.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR A TIME
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...BUT WE THINK THE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE DRY HIGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH MOST AREAS TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID FIFTIES SOUTH AND WEST TO 45 TO 50 FROM THE TWIN PORTS INTO
THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING WARM AND
HUMID FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING PCPN
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS OF ABOUT A TENTH TO QUARTER
INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL BE OVER 1 INCH...WHICH IS PRETTY
SUBSTANTIAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME
MODEST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THINK IT IS TOO EARLY TO ADD
STORMS TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE MARGINAL OF THE INDICATORS...BUT WE
MIGHT NEED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHLAND. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 60S...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH HIGHS STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP PLENTY OF STRATUS OVER THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH CIGS MAINLY MVFR. SOME BREAKS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING...BUT THEN STRATUS SHOULD FILL
IN AGAIN AND THEN SLOWLY LOWER. KDLH AND KHYR MAY LOWER TO IFR
AFTER 09Z TONIGHT....LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z TUESDAY. HAVE
LEFT IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z FOR NOW AS END TIME IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE KHIB AND KINL TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. KBRD IS NOT UNDER THE STRATUS...THOUGH IT
MAY GET SOME BROKEN MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE KBRD TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  36  47  36 /  10  10  10   0
INL  48  32  55  37 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  58  36  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  52  31  52  33 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  50  36  50  33 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 201745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
A TROUGH SWINGS EAST. A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
OCCUR TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. A STRATUS DECK
WITH BASES FROM 1200-3500FT WAS OCCURRING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW THIS CLOUD EXPANDING SOUTH TODAY AND THE STRONGER INVERSION
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND
HOLD OVER THE EAST. WHERE EXACTLY THE LINE OF CLEARING SETS UP IS
STILL IN QUESTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AND WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR CLEAR OUT. WE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY
FOR MOST AREAS...THEN DECREASED IT TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
OCCUR AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDINESS. IN ADDITION TO THE
CLOUD ISSUES...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND +6C OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...TO -2C EAST. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION AND COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD TODAY.

THERE MAY BE FEW SHOWERS TODAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY THIS
MORNING OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN
WISCONSIN ZONES. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SOME ECHOES HEADED
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ARROWHEAD AS OF 0830Z.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR A TIME
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...BUT WE THINK THE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE DRY HIGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH MOST AREAS TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID FIFTIES SOUTH AND WEST TO 45 TO 50 FROM THE TWIN PORTS INTO
THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING WARM AND
HUMID FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING PCPN
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS OF ABOUT A TENTH TO QUARTER
INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL BE OVER 1 INCH...WHICH IS PRETTY
SUBSTANTIAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME
MODEST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THINK IT IS TOO EARLY TO ADD
STORMS TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE MARGINAL OF THE INDICATORS...BUT WE
MIGHT NEED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHLAND. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 60S...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH HIGHS STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW TO KEEP PLENTY OF STRATUS OVER THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH CIGS MAINLY MVFR. SOME BREAKS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 00Z THIS EVENING...BUT THEN STRATUS SHOULD FILL
IN AGAIN AND THEN SLOWLY LOWER. KDLH AND KHYR MAY LOWER TO IFR
AFTER 09Z TONIGHT....LINGERING THROUGH AT LEAST 16Z TUESDAY. HAVE
LEFT IFR CIGS THROUGH 18Z FOR NOW AS END TIME IS SOMEWHAT
UNCERTAIN. OTHERWISE KHIB AND KINL TO REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
REMAINDER OF TAF PERIOD. KBRD IS NOT UNDER THE STRATUS...THOUGH IT
MAY GET SOME BROKEN MVFR CIGS THROUGH ABOUT 21Z THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE KBRD TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  36  47  36 /  10  10  10   0
INL  48  32  55  37 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  58  36  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  52  31  52  33 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  50  36  50  33 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 201130 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
A TROUGH SWINGS EAST. A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
OCCUR TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. A STRATUS DECK
WITH BASES FROM 1200-3500FT WAS OCCURRING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW THIS CLOUD EXPANDING SOUTH TODAY AND THE STRONGER INVERSION
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND
HOLD OVER THE EAST. WHERE EXACTLY THE LINE OF CLEARING SETS UP IS
STILL IN QUESTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AND WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR CLEAR OUT. WE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY
FOR MOST AREAS...THEN DECREASED IT TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
OCCUR AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDINESS. IN ADDITION TO THE
CLOUD ISSUES...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND +6C OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...TO -2C EAST. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION AND COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD TODAY.

THERE MAY BE FEW SHOWERS TODAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY THIS
MORNING OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN
WISCONSIN ZONES. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SOME ECHOES HEADED
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ARROWHEAD AS OF 0830Z.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR A TIME
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...BUT WE THINK THE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE DRY HIGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH MOST AREAS TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID FIFTIES SOUTH AND WEST TO 45 TO 50 FROM THE TWIN PORTS INTO
THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING WARM AND
HUMID FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING PCPN
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS OF ABOUT A TENTH TO QUARTER
INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL BE OVER 1 INCH...WHICH IS PRETTY
SUBSTANTIAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME
MODEST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THINK IT IS TOO EARLY TO ADD
STORMS TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE MARGINAL OF THE INDICATORS...BUT WE
MIGHT NEED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHLAND. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 60S...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH HIGHS STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

COOL NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY WILL BRING A BKN/OVC LAYER
OF MVFR CIGS DOWN FROM CANADA. THE MVFR WILL LIKELY AFFECT
KINL/KHIB/KDLH/KHYR FOR PERIODS THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING AND/OR SCATTERING TO VFR. IT COULD MAKE
IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KBRD...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST THE
MVFR THAT FAR SOUTH AT THIS POINT.

MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MVFR COULD LINGER AT KHYR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. THE KDLH AND KHIB AREAS COULD SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS RETURN
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  36  47  36 /   0  10  10   0
INL  48  32  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  58  36  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  52  31  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  49  36  50  33 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 201130 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
A TROUGH SWINGS EAST. A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
OCCUR TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. A STRATUS DECK
WITH BASES FROM 1200-3500FT WAS OCCURRING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW THIS CLOUD EXPANDING SOUTH TODAY AND THE STRONGER INVERSION
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND
HOLD OVER THE EAST. WHERE EXACTLY THE LINE OF CLEARING SETS UP IS
STILL IN QUESTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AND WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR CLEAR OUT. WE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY
FOR MOST AREAS...THEN DECREASED IT TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
OCCUR AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDINESS. IN ADDITION TO THE
CLOUD ISSUES...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND +6C OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...TO -2C EAST. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION AND COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD TODAY.

THERE MAY BE FEW SHOWERS TODAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY THIS
MORNING OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN
WISCONSIN ZONES. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SOME ECHOES HEADED
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ARROWHEAD AS OF 0830Z.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR A TIME
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...BUT WE THINK THE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE DRY HIGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH MOST AREAS TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID FIFTIES SOUTH AND WEST TO 45 TO 50 FROM THE TWIN PORTS INTO
THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING WARM AND
HUMID FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING PCPN
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS OF ABOUT A TENTH TO QUARTER
INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL BE OVER 1 INCH...WHICH IS PRETTY
SUBSTANTIAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME
MODEST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THINK IT IS TOO EARLY TO ADD
STORMS TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE MARGINAL OF THE INDICATORS...BUT WE
MIGHT NEED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHLAND. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 60S...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH HIGHS STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

COOL NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY WILL BRING A BKN/OVC LAYER
OF MVFR CIGS DOWN FROM CANADA. THE MVFR WILL LIKELY AFFECT
KINL/KHIB/KDLH/KHYR FOR PERIODS THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING AND/OR SCATTERING TO VFR. IT COULD MAKE
IT AS FAR SOUTH AS KBRD...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO FORECAST THE
MVFR THAT FAR SOUTH AT THIS POINT.

MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY THE MIDDLE OF THE
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MVFR COULD LINGER AT KHYR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY. THE KDLH AND KHIB AREAS COULD SEE MVFR CIGS/VSBYS RETURN
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  36  47  36 /   0  10  10   0
INL  48  32  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  58  36  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  52  31  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  49  36  50  33 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200835 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
333 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
A TROUGH SWINGS EAST. A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
OCCUR TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. A STRATUS DECK
WITH BASES FROM 1200-3500FT WAS OCCURRING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW THIS CLOUD EXPANDING SOUTH TODAY AND THE STRONGER INVERSION
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND
HOLD OVER THE EAST. WHERE EXACTLY THE LINE OF CLEARING SETS UP IS
STILL IN QUESTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AND WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR CLEAR OUT. WE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY
FOR MOST AREAS...THEN DECREASED IT TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
OCCUR AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDINESS. IN ADDITION TO THE
CLOUD ISSUES...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND +6C OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...TO -2C EAST. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION AND COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD TODAY.

THERE MAY BE FEW SHOWERS TODAY OVER EASTERN AREAS...MAINLY THIS
MORNING OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND THIS AFTERNOON OVER OUR EASTERN
WISCONSIN ZONES. CANADIAN RADAR SHOWS SOME ECHOES HEADED
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE ARROWHEAD AS OF 0830Z.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR A TIME
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...BUT WE THINK THE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE DRY HIGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH MOST AREAS TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID FIFTIES SOUTH AND WEST TO 45 TO 50 FROM THE TWIN PORTS INTO
THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING WARM AND
HUMID FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING PCPN
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS OF ABOUT A TENTH TO QUARTER
INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL BE OVER 1 INCH...WHICH IS PRETTY
SUBSTANTIAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME
MODEST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THINK IT IS TOO EARLY TO ADD
STORMS TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE MARGINAL OF THE INDICATORS...BUT WE
MIGHT NEED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHLAND. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 60S...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH HIGHS STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
ALSO ALLOWED STRATUS TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KBRD AS OF 05Z.  WHILE CEILINGS ARE STILL MVFR..WE EXPECT
THEM TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT.  WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON..WE
SUSPECT THAT WHILE CEILINGS MAY RISE INTO VFR CATEGORY..BROKEN
CEILINGS MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  36  47  36 /   0  10  10   0
INL  48  32  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  58  36  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  53  31  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  52  36  50  33 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MILLER










000
FXUS63 KDLH 200822
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
A TROUGH SWINGS EAST. A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
OCCUR TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. A STRATUS DECK
WITH BASES FROM 1200-3500FT WAS OCCURRING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW THIS CLOUD EXPANDING SOUTH TODAY AND THE STRONGER INVERSION
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND
HOLD OVER THE EAST. WHERE EXACTLY THE LINE OF CLEARING SETS UP IS
STILL IN QUESTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AND WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR CLEAR OUT. WE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY
FOR MOST AREAS...THEN DECREASED IT TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
OCCUR AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDINESS. IN ADDITION TO THE
CLOUD ISSUES...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND +6C OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...TO -2C EAST. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION AND COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR A TIME
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...BUT WE THINK THE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE DRY HIGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH MOST AREAS TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID FIFTIES SOUTH AND WEST TO 45 TO 50 FROM THE TWIN PORTS INTO
THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING WARM AND
HUMID FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING PCPN
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS OF ABOUT A TENTH TO QUARTER
INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL BE OVER 1 INCH...WHICH IS PRETTY
SUBSTANTIAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME
MODEST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THINK IT IS TOO EARLY TO ADD
STORMS TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE MARGINAL OF THE INDICATORS...BUT WE
MIGHT NEED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHLAND. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 60S...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH HIGHS STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
ALSO ALLOWED STRATUS TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KBRD AS OF 05Z.  WHILE CEILINGS ARE STILL MVFR..WE EXPECT
THEM TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT.  WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON..WE
SUSPECT THAT WHILE CEILINGS MAY RISE INTO VFR CATEGORY..BROKEN
CEILINGS MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  36  47  36 /   0  10  10   0
INL  48  32  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  58  36  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  53  31  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  52  36  50  33 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MILLER








000
FXUS63 KDLH 200822
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST ISSUE REVOLVES AROUND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD...AND ITS AFFECT ON TEMPERATURES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING AS
A TROUGH SWINGS EAST. A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL
OCCUR TODAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. A STRATUS DECK
WITH BASES FROM 1200-3500FT WAS OCCURRING FROM MANITOBA SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA. MOST OF THE MODELS
SHOW THIS CLOUD EXPANDING SOUTH TODAY AND THE STRONGER INVERSION
WILL MAKE IT TOUGH TO SCOUR OUT THE CLOUDS. THE MODELS DO SUGGEST THE
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP...MAINLY OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND
HOLD OVER THE EAST. WHERE EXACTLY THE LINE OF CLEARING SETS UP IS
STILL IN QUESTION. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY
THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING AND WILL MAKE IT TOUGHER FOR AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR CLEAR OUT. WE DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER TODAY
FOR MOST AREAS...THEN DECREASED IT TONIGHT. THE EXCEPTION TONIGHT
WILL BE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE A NORTHEAST/EAST FLOW WILL
OCCUR AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE CLOUDINESS. IN ADDITION TO THE
CLOUD ISSUES...THERE WILL BE A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH 850MB TEMPS RANGING FROM AROUND +6C OVER OUR WESTERN
ZONES...TO -2C EAST. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION AND COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD TODAY.

THE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TUESDAY ALLOWING FOR AN
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR A TIME
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR ON TUESDAY...BUT WE THINK THE INCREASING
SOUTHEAST FLOW OUT OF THE DRY HIGH WILL BE ENOUGH TO CAUSE THE
CLOUDS TO DIMINISH MOST AREAS TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID FIFTIES SOUTH AND WEST TO 45 TO 50 FROM THE TWIN PORTS INTO
THE ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY EVENING. THERE WILL BE A PRONOUNCED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WHILE A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
MOVES INTO THE PLAINS. THE TROUGH WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS LOW WILL BRING WARM AND
HUMID FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING PCPN
CHANCES FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IT APPEARS
THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD RAINS OF ABOUT A TENTH TO QUARTER
INCH OF TOTAL RAINFALL TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS VALUES WILL BE OVER 1 INCH...WHICH IS PRETTY
SUBSTANTIAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS
THAT THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE. THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE SHOWING SOME
MODEST MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AT THIS TIME...THINK IT IS TOO EARLY TO ADD
STORMS TO THE FORECAST GIVEN THE MARGINAL OF THE INDICATORS...BUT WE
MIGHT NEED TO ADD ISOLATED THUNDER TO SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE WARM TEMPERATURES OVER THE
NORTHLAND. FRIDAY WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE LOW 60S...ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN
NORMAL. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING
SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...BUT WITH HIGHS STILL 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE
PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SUGGESTING THIS
SYSTEM COULD BRING SIGNIFICANT PCPN TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
ALSO ALLOWED STRATUS TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KBRD AS OF 05Z.  WHILE CEILINGS ARE STILL MVFR..WE EXPECT
THEM TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT.  WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON..WE
SUSPECT THAT WHILE CEILINGS MAY RISE INTO VFR CATEGORY..BROKEN
CEILINGS MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  50  36  47  36 /   0  10  10   0
INL  48  32  55  37 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  58  36  57  38 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  53  31  52  33 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  52  36  50  33 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MILLER







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200523 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE FEW SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NW ONTARIO ACROSS LK SUPERIOR..RESULTING IN THE
SURFACE LOW THAT WAS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD EARLIER THIS EVENING
TRANSLATING TO JUST N OF MARQUETTE..WITH NW SURFACE GRADIENT
SLOWLY INCREASING IN ITS WAKE. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT..ALLOWING STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER FAR NRN MN
AND NW ONTARIO TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. THERE
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW TRANSIENT VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MID MORNING MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR IN BOTH MN/WI..BUT THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG DEAL.

MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR MONDAY APPEARS TO BE HOW QUICKLY /IF AT
ALL/ THAT THE STRATUS WILL BE ABLE TO THIN/DISSIPATE. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AN EXTREMELY TIGHT EAST-WEST
TEMP /AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MOISTURE/ GRADIENT ACROSS THE DLH CWA
ON MONDAY WITH +8 850 TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD AREA AND NEAR -2 OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. THUS..WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASINGLY ACQUIRING AN
EAST OF DUE NORTH COMPONENT BY MID AFTERNOON..ITS NOT
INCONCEIVABLE THAT CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY ALONG
AND EAST OF ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER..SOME LOCAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN SUBSIDENCE REGION OF STANDING WAVE THAT
WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
ALSO ALLOWED STRATUS TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KBRD AS OF 05Z.  WHILE CEILINGS ARE STILL MVFR..WE EXPECT
THEM TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT.  WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON..WE
SUSPECT THAT WHILE CEILINGS MAY RISE INTO VFR CATEGORY..BROKEN
CEILINGS MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  49  36  56 /   0   0   0  10
INL  31  53  37  58 /   0   0   0  50
BRD  36  58  38  58 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  31  53  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  34  51  33  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MILLER







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200523 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE FEW SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NW ONTARIO ACROSS LK SUPERIOR..RESULTING IN THE
SURFACE LOW THAT WAS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD EARLIER THIS EVENING
TRANSLATING TO JUST N OF MARQUETTE..WITH NW SURFACE GRADIENT
SLOWLY INCREASING IN ITS WAKE. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT..ALLOWING STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER FAR NRN MN
AND NW ONTARIO TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. THERE
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW TRANSIENT VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MID MORNING MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR IN BOTH MN/WI..BUT THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG DEAL.

MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR MONDAY APPEARS TO BE HOW QUICKLY /IF AT
ALL/ THAT THE STRATUS WILL BE ABLE TO THIN/DISSIPATE. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AN EXTREMELY TIGHT EAST-WEST
TEMP /AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MOISTURE/ GRADIENT ACROSS THE DLH CWA
ON MONDAY WITH +8 850 TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD AREA AND NEAR -2 OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. THUS..WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASINGLY ACQUIRING AN
EAST OF DUE NORTH COMPONENT BY MID AFTERNOON..ITS NOT
INCONCEIVABLE THAT CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY ALONG
AND EAST OF ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER..SOME LOCAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN SUBSIDENCE REGION OF STANDING WAVE THAT
WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON OCT 20 2014

INCREASING NORTHWESTERLY GRADIENT IN THE WAKE OF DEPARTING SURFACE
LOW HAS ALLOWED WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND
ALSO ALLOWED STRATUS TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHWARD INTO ALL TAF SITES
EXCEPT FOR KBRD AS OF 05Z.  WHILE CEILINGS ARE STILL MVFR..WE EXPECT
THEM TO LOWER INTO MVFR CATEGORY OVERNIGHT.  MAIN UNCERTAINTY FOR
MONDAY IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH CLOUDS WILL BE ABLE TO MIX OUT.  WITH
LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRING AN EASTERLY COMPONENT BY AFTERNOON..WE
SUSPECT THAT WHILE CEILINGS MAY RISE INTO VFR CATEGORY..BROKEN
CEILINGS MAY BE ABLE TO PERSIST AT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR THROUGH MOST OF
THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  49  36  56 /   0   0   0  10
INL  31  53  37  58 /   0   0   0  50
BRD  36  58  38  58 /   0   0   0  30
HYR  31  53  33  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  34  51  33  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/MILLER








000
FXUS63 KDLH 200244 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
944 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE FEW SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NW ONTARIO ACROSS LK SUPERIOR..RESULTING IN THE
SURFACE LOW THAT WAS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD EARLIER THIS EVENING
TRANSLATING TO JUST N OF MARQUETTE..WITH NW SURFACE GRADIENT
SLOWLY INCREASING IN ITS WAKE. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT..ALLOWING STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER FAR NRN MN
AND NW ONTARIO TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. THERE
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW TRANSIENT VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MID MORNING MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR IN BOTH MN/WI..BUT THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG DEAL.

MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR MONDAY APPEARS TO BE HOW QUICKLY /IF AT
ALL/ THAT THE STRATUS WILL BE ABLE TO THIN/DISSIPATE. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AN EXTREMELY TIGHT EAST-WEST
TEMP /AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MOISTURE/ GRADIENT ACROSS THE DLH CWA
ON MONDAY WITH +8 850 TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD AREA AND NEAR -2 OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. THUS..WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASINGLY ACQUIRING AN
EAST OF DUE NORTH COMPONENT BY MID AFTERNOON..ITS NOT
INCONCEIVABLE THAT CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY ALONG
AND EAST OF ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER..SOME LOCAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN SUBSIDENCE REGION OF STANDING WAVE THAT
WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AS OF 00Z WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN AS PARENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS OVER NW ONTARIO DIVES INTO MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE
ERN GRT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TO
NW/N OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET PLUS AN INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD ALLOW
STRATOCU DECK NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SEWD
WITH TIME WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KBRD BETWEEN 03-11Z TIME FRAME. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWEST
TO DISSIPATE AT KDLH/KHYR ON MONDAY AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY VEER TO NNE BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  52  36  49 /  10   0   0   0
INL  42  50  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  42  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  40  55  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  43  53  34  51 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MILLER







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200244 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
944 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THERE ARE FEW SUBSTANTIAL CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST THIS
EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY AMPLIFY AND DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NW ONTARIO ACROSS LK SUPERIOR..RESULTING IN THE
SURFACE LOW THAT WAS OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD EARLIER THIS EVENING
TRANSLATING TO JUST N OF MARQUETTE..WITH NW SURFACE GRADIENT
SLOWLY INCREASING IN ITS WAKE. LOW LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE OVERNIGHT..ALLOWING STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER FAR NRN MN
AND NW ONTARIO TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. THERE
WILL ALSO LIKELY BE A FEW TRANSIENT VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO MID MORNING MONDAY ALONG AND
EAST OF ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR IN BOTH MN/WI..BUT THIS IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE A BIG DEAL.

MAIN FORECAST QUESTION FOR MONDAY APPEARS TO BE HOW QUICKLY /IF AT
ALL/ THAT THE STRATUS WILL BE ABLE TO THIN/DISSIPATE. LATEST SHORT
TERM MODEL GUIDANCE WOULD SUGGEST AN EXTREMELY TIGHT EAST-WEST
TEMP /AND TO A LESSER EXTENT MOISTURE/ GRADIENT ACROSS THE DLH CWA
ON MONDAY WITH +8 850 TEMPS IN THE BRAINERD AREA AND NEAR -2 OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. THUS..WITH LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASINGLY ACQUIRING AN
EAST OF DUE NORTH COMPONENT BY MID AFTERNOON..ITS NOT
INCONCEIVABLE THAT CLOUDS MAY HANG TOUGH FOR MOST OF THE DAY ALONG
AND EAST OF ROUGHLY THE HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR. HOWEVER..SOME LOCAL
CLEARING IS POSSIBLE IN SUBSIDENCE REGION OF STANDING WAVE THAT
WILL LIKELY SET UP IN THE LEE OF THE NORTH SHORE TERRAIN RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AS OF 00Z WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN AS PARENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS OVER NW ONTARIO DIVES INTO MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE
ERN GRT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TO
NW/N OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET PLUS AN INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD ALLOW
STRATOCU DECK NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SEWD
WITH TIME WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KBRD BETWEEN 03-11Z TIME FRAME. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWEST
TO DISSIPATE AT KDLH/KHYR ON MONDAY AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY VEER TO NNE BY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  52  36  49 /  10   0   0   0
INL  42  50  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  42  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  40  55  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  43  53  34  51 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MILLER








000
FXUS63 KDLH 200002 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
702 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AS OF 00Z WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN AS PARENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS OVER NW ONTARIO DIVES INTO MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE
ERN GRT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TO
NW/N OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET PLUS AN INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD ALLOW
STRATOCU DECK NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SEWD
WITH TIME WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KBRD BETWEEN 03-11Z TIME FRAME. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWEST
TO DISSIPATE AT KDLH/KHYR ON MONDAY AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY VEER TO NNE BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  52  36  49 /  10   0   0   0
INL  42  50  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  42  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  40  55  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  43  53  34  51 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MILLER







000
FXUS63 KDLH 200002 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
702 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AS OF 00Z WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN AS PARENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS OVER NW ONTARIO DIVES INTO MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE
ERN GRT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TO
NW/N OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET PLUS AN INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD ALLOW
STRATOCU DECK NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SEWD
WITH TIME WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KBRD BETWEEN 03-11Z TIME FRAME. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWEST
TO DISSIPATE AT KDLH/KHYR ON MONDAY AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY VEER TO NNE BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  52  36  49 /  10   0   0   0
INL  42  50  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  42  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  40  55  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  43  53  34  51 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MILLER








000
FXUS63 KDLH 200002 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
702 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AS OF 00Z WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN AS PARENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS OVER NW ONTARIO DIVES INTO MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE
ERN GRT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TO
NW/N OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET PLUS AN INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD ALLOW
STRATOCU DECK NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SEWD
WITH TIME WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KBRD BETWEEN 03-11Z TIME FRAME. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWEST
TO DISSIPATE AT KDLH/KHYR ON MONDAY AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY VEER TO NNE BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  52  36  49 /  10   0   0   0
INL  42  50  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  42  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  40  55  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  43  53  34  51 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MILLER








000
FXUS63 KDLH 200002 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
702 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AS OF 00Z WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT AND DEEPEN AS PARENT MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF
AXIS OVER NW ONTARIO DIVES INTO MEAN UPPER TROF POSITION OVER THE
ERN GRT LAKES REGION. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY VEER TO
NW/N OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN. INCREASING COLD ADVECTION
IN THE LOWEST SEVERAL THOUSAND FEET PLUS AN INCREASINGLY NORTHERLY
WIND COMPONENT WITHIN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER SHOULD ALLOW
STRATOCU DECK NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER TO ADVECT/DEVELOP SEWD
WITH TIME WITH MVFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING AT ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT
FOR KBRD BETWEEN 03-11Z TIME FRAME. CLOUDS EXPECTED TO BE SLOWEST
TO DISSIPATE AT KDLH/KHYR ON MONDAY AS SURFACE WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY VEER TO NNE BY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  52  36  49 /  10   0   0   0
INL  42  50  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  42  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  40  55  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  43  53  34  51 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MILLER







000
FXUS63 KDLH 192032
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A SURFACE LOW OVER FAR NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST TOWARDS EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT...DRAGGING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  THE SHOWERS WITH THIS SYSTEM CAME WITH THE WARM FRONT THAT
MOVED THROUGH THIS MORNING...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE TOO MUCH DRY AIR
IN THIS AIRMASS AND WE HAVE HAD NEARLY CLEAR SKIES BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.  THE COLD FRONT WILL TURN WINDS TO THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING...AND EVENTUALLY DRAG SOME STRATUS SOUTH
ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH IS CURRENTLY NORTH OF WINNIPEG ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SO TIMING WILL BE SOMEWHAT TRICKY.  ALSO HAVE SOME SMALL
POPS FOR RAIN SHOWERS UNDER THE CLOUDS...AND WE MAY GET SOME LAKE
EFFECT SHOWERS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHICH LINGER INTO MONDAY
MORNING. CLOUDS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST
NIGHT...WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOWER TO ARRIVE/OR NOT ARRIVE AT ALL.  IN ALL...LOOKING AT MINS IN
THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S TONIGHT.  MONDAY THE NORTHWEST CYCLONIC
FLOW IS LIKELY TO KEEP CLOUDS GOING OVER ABOUT THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE AREA...WHICH MAY BE ABLE TO CLEAR SOME FROM THE WEST AS DIURNAL
EFFECTS WORK ON IT.  HIGH TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S ONCE
AGAIN OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...BUT 50S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD AND TRANSITION EWD
ACROSS THE REGION MON NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...PRECEDED BY A SFC
RIDGE DRAGGING SEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS RIDGE WILL USHER
IN ANOTHER PUNCH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH...AIDED BY A STRONG SLY
FLOW AND WAA IN THE LOW LEVELS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKS IN FROM THE NRN ROCKIES WED MORNING AND
THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
INITIATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR IN MN
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. AS THE UPPER TROUGH ACCELERATES EWD IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE AREA OF STRONGER LARGE SCALE LIFT ARRIVES...WILL
SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN SHOWERS INCREASE AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THUR MORNING. ANOTHER BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WITH MILD TEMPS AND QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE CHILLY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 30S AND HIGHS IN THE 40S ALONG THE NORTH SHORE DUE TO A
LIGHT EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S FOR
AREAS INLAND. TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL CLIMB INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WED THROUGH FRI...WITH FRIDAY EXPECTED TO BE
THE WARMEST DAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 05Z TONIGHT AND PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST EARLY
MON MORNING...EVENTUALLY INTO NW WI LATE MON MORNING. POTENTIALLY
COULD SEE IFR CIGS AT INL AS WELL. SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TO THE N BY MON MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  52  36  49 /  10   0   0   0
INL  42  50  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  41  58  36  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  40  55  31  53 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  44  53  34  51 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT








000
FXUS63 KDLH 191744 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS OF 08Z AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS
MORNING...MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE FORCING WITH
THESE FEATURES IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. AREA RADARS SHOW ECHOES
WERE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF MODELS. WE ADJUSTED POPS TODAY...AND
EXTENDED THEM FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL KEPT THEM LOW. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
SIXTIES OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...TO AROUND FIFTY IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER OVER
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER PORTIONS OF IRON/PRICE COUNTIES IN
WI MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE FIFTIES OVER THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION WHERE WE EXPECT THE MOST SUN...TO THE MID FORTIES TO
AROUND FIFTY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COULD CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH COULD BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/AMOUNT OF PCPN. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT OVERALL
THE TWO MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS RELATIVELY WARM SW TO WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND WE MIGHT NEED TO
LOWER THE FORECAST IF THE MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 05Z TONIGHT AND PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST EARLY
MON MORNING...EVENTUALLY INTO NW WI LATE MON MORNING. POTENTIALLY
COULD SEE IFR CIGS AT INL AS WELL. SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TO THE N BY MON MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  42  51  36 /  10  10  10   0
INL  58  41  49  32 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  63  42  56  36 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  41  53  32 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  58  43  51  36 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 191744 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS OF 08Z AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS
MORNING...MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE FORCING WITH
THESE FEATURES IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. AREA RADARS SHOW ECHOES
WERE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF MODELS. WE ADJUSTED POPS TODAY...AND
EXTENDED THEM FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL KEPT THEM LOW. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
SIXTIES OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...TO AROUND FIFTY IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER OVER
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER PORTIONS OF IRON/PRICE COUNTIES IN
WI MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE FIFTIES OVER THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION WHERE WE EXPECT THE MOST SUN...TO THE MID FORTIES TO
AROUND FIFTY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COULD CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH COULD BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/AMOUNT OF PCPN. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT OVERALL
THE TWO MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS RELATIVELY WARM SW TO WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND WE MIGHT NEED TO
LOWER THE FORECAST IF THE MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS DEVELOPING
NORTH TO SOUTH AFTER 05Z TONIGHT AND PUSHING SOUTH AND EAST EARLY
MON MORNING...EVENTUALLY INTO NW WI LATE MON MORNING. POTENTIALLY
COULD SEE IFR CIGS AT INL AS WELL. SW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
VEER TO THE NW TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY TO THE N BY MON MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  42  51  36 /  10  10  10   0
INL  58  41  49  32 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  63  42  56  36 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  41  53  32 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  58  43  51  36 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...BJT








000
FXUS63 KDLH 191137 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS OF 08Z AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS
MORNING...MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE FORCING WITH
THESE FEATURES IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. AREA RADARS SHOW ECHOES
WERE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF MODELS. WE ADJUSTED POPS TODAY...AND
EXTENDED THEM FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL KEPT THEM LOW. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
SIXTIES OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...TO AROUND FIFTY IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER OVER
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER PORTIONS OF IRON/PRICE COUNTIES IN
WI MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE FIFTIES OVER THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION WHERE WE EXPECT THE MOST SUN...TO THE MID FORTIES TO
AROUND FIFTY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COULD CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH COULD BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/AMOUNT OF PCPN. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT OVERALL
THE TWO MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS RELATIVELY WARM SW TO WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND WE MIGHT NEED TO
LOWER THE FORECAST IF THE MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW
IFR/MVFR CLOUDS WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA INTO NE MINNESOTA LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THE IFR/MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT KINL AND KHIB...BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST THIS YET IN THE TAF.

THE REGION HAD LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE KHYR
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIND SHEAR ISSUES UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING DUE TO 35 TO 40 KNOT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
W TO WNW AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  42  51  36 /  20  10  10   0
INL  58  41  49  32 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  63  42  56  36 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  41  53  32 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  58  43  51  36 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 191137 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS OF 08Z AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS
MORNING...MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE FORCING WITH
THESE FEATURES IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. AREA RADARS SHOW ECHOES
WERE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF MODELS. WE ADJUSTED POPS TODAY...AND
EXTENDED THEM FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL KEPT THEM LOW. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
SIXTIES OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...TO AROUND FIFTY IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER OVER
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER PORTIONS OF IRON/PRICE COUNTIES IN
WI MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE FIFTIES OVER THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION WHERE WE EXPECT THE MOST SUN...TO THE MID FORTIES TO
AROUND FIFTY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COULD CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH COULD BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/AMOUNT OF PCPN. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT OVERALL
THE TWO MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS RELATIVELY WARM SW TO WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND WE MIGHT NEED TO
LOWER THE FORECAST IF THE MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

THE VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. HOWEVER...LOW
IFR/MVFR CLOUDS WILL DROP OUT OF CANADA INTO NE MINNESOTA LATE
TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. THE IFR/MVFR CIGS COULD AFFECT KINL AND KHIB...BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO FORECAST THIS YET IN THE TAF.

THE REGION HAD LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. THE KHYR
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO SEE WIND SHEAR ISSUES UNTIL LATER THIS
MORNING DUE TO 35 TO 40 KNOT SW FLOW ALOFT. THE WINDS WILL BECOME
W TO WNW AND GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  42  51  36 /  20  10  10   0
INL  58  41  49  32 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  63  42  56  36 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  41  53  32 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  58  43  51  36 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI









000
FXUS63 KDLH 190811
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
311 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS OF 08Z AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS
MORNING...MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE FORCING WITH
THESE FEATURES IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. AREA RADARS SHOW ECHOES
WERE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF MODELS. WE ADJUSTED POPS TODAY...AND
EXTENDED THEM FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL KEPT THEM LOW. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
SIXTIES OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...TO AROUND FIFTY IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER OVER
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER PORTIONS OF IRON/PRICE COUNTIES IN
WI MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE FIFTIES OVER THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION WHERE WE EXPECT THE MOST SUN...TO THE MID FORTIES TO
AROUND FIFTY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COULD CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH COULD BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/AMOUNT OF PCPN. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT OVERALL
THE TWO MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS RELATIVELY WARM SW TO WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND WE MIGHT NEED TO
LOWER THE FORECAST IF THE MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF WIND SHEAR
THROUGH AROUND 12Z AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  42  51  36 /  20  10  10   0
INL  58  41  49  32 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  63  42  56  36 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  41  53  32 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  58  43  51  36 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 190811
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
311 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED SOUTH FROM MANITOBA INTO THE
CENTRAL DAKOTAS AS OF 08Z AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT WAS MOVING THROUGH
NORTH DAKOTA AS WELL. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE EAST THIS
MORNING...MAKING THEIR WAY THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THE FORCING WITH
THESE FEATURES IS NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...BUT PWAT VALUES ARE
FORECAST TO RISE TO AROUND 0.8 INCHES. AREA RADARS SHOW ECHOES
WERE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH
THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF MODELS. WE ADJUSTED POPS TODAY...AND
EXTENDED THEM FURTHER SOUTH BUT STILL KEPT THEM LOW. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIMITED TO A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT BEST.
MOST OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA SHOULD SEE A DRY AFTERNOON WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER
SIXTIES OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES...TO AROUND FIFTY IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING SOUTH INTO MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT UNDER A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. WE INCREASED
CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE FURTHER OVER
OUR SOUTHWEST CWA IF THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA ON MONDAY WITH COOLER AIR IN
PLACE...ESPECIALLY EASTERN AREAS. WE INCREASED CLOUD COVER AS THE
LOW CLOUDS LOOK TO HANG AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY OVER EASTERN AREAS.
THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER PORTIONS OF IRON/PRICE COUNTIES IN
WI MONDAY. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE FIFTIES OVER THE BRAINERD
LAKES REGION WHERE WE EXPECT THE MOST SUN...TO THE MID FORTIES TO
AROUND FIFTY EAST.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN ONTARIO MONDAY EVENING WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY...BUT MOISTURE FROM EASTERLY
FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR COULD CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA.

A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE PLAINS WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST MONDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WARMING
TREND DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE
A TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING THE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY TIMEFRAME IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.
THIS TROUGH COULD BRING RAIN TO THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE MODELS
STILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING/AMOUNT OF PCPN. THE
ECMWF CONTINUES TO BE FASTER AND WETTER THAN THE GFS...BUT OVERALL
THE TWO MODELS APPEAR TO BE CONVERGING WHEN COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS
RUNS. THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF RAIN ARE OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

ANOTHER MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND DURING
THE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY TIMEFRAME. THIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TEMPERATURES
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
HOWEVER...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE QUITE DIFFERENT ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS RELATIVELY WARM SW TO WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND...THE ECMWF BRINGS A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. COOLER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AND WE MIGHT NEED TO
LOWER THE FORECAST IF THE MODELS TREND TOWARDS THE ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF WIND SHEAR
THROUGH AROUND 12Z AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  42  51  36 /  20  10  10   0
INL  58  41  49  32 /  20  10  10   0
BRD  63  42  56  36 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  41  53  32 /  10  10  10   0
ASX  58  43  51  36 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/STEWART







000
FXUS63 KDLH 190530 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOWERED MIN TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE BORDERLAND...ARROWHEAD
AND NW WI AS TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS.
THE TEMPS MAY BECOME NEARLY STEADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CIRRUS/AC MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SUN OCT 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THE WEATHER.  THERE IS A POSSIBILTY OF WIND SHEAR
THROUGH AROUND 12Z AT ALL SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  52  36  49 /   0   0   0   0
INL  39  50  32  53 /   0  10   0   0
BRD  41  56  35  55 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  41  54  31  53 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  42  53  34  52 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/STEWART







000
FXUS63 KDLH 190219
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
919 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOWERED MIN TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE BORDERLAND...ARROWHEAD
AND NW WI AS TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS.
THE TEMPS MAY BECOME NEARLY STEADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CIRRUS/AC MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITONS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAKF PERIOD AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  29  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  38  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  30  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  28  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 190219
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
919 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 918 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

LOWERED MIN TEMPS 3-5 DEGREES ACROSS THE BORDERLAND...ARROWHEAD
AND NW WI AS TEMPS ALREADY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S ACROSS
THOSE AREAS. ALSO ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WESTERN AREAS.
THE TEMPS MAY BECOME NEARLY STEADY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AS
THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CIRRUS/AC MOVING ACROSS THE REGION. REST OF
FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITONS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAKF PERIOD AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  29  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  38  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  30  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  28  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART







000
FXUS63 KDLH 190106
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITONS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAKF PERIOD AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  36  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  39  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  32  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  31  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 190106
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

VFR CONDITONS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES THROUGH THE TAKF PERIOD AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRRESSURE AFFECTS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  36  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  39  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  32  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  31  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...STEWART







000
FXUS63 KDLH 182021
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AFTER THE LOW SCT/BKN DECK MIXES OUT THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION RA/VCSH AT THIS POINT...BUT INL
AND HIB MAY NEED VCSH AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
PERIOD OF LLWS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH 1500FT WINDS 25
TO 35 KT FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT THE SFC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  36  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  39  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  32  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  31  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT









000
FXUS63 KDLH 182021
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS SLOWLY SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY.  EVEN THE SHALLOW MIXING IN THIS AIRMASS HAS MANAGED TO
DISSIPATE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER WE HAD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING...AND IT HAS LEFT PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FOR ALL BUT THE
FAR SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN NICELY INTO
THE 40S AND EVEN A FEW LOW 50S NEARLY EVERYWHERE WITH DEWPOINTS DOWN
IN THE 20S AND LOW 30S.  THIS EVENING MODELS WANT TO BOTH CONTINUE
TO EAT AWAY AT THE EDGES OF THE LINGERING STRATUS OVER WESTERN
MINNESOTA AND THE DAKOTAS...AS WELL AS BEGIN TO PUSH IT NORTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THIS IS IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WING OF THE NEXT SYSTEM
TO COME THROUGH TOMORROW...AND THE STRATUS MIGHT MANAGE TO CONTINUE
TO DISSIPATE...BUT IT MAY NOT TOO. FOR NOW HAVE ONLY GONE WITH SOME
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT WE MAY HAVE TO INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA IF THE STRATUS IS TOO PERSISTENT THIS EVENING.
TEMPS SHOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY MILD OVER MINNESOTA...AND HAVE PUT MINS
INTO THE MID 30S TO NEAR 40 THERE.  FARTHER EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER
WILL BE LESS AND WINDS REMAIN CALM MINS SHOULD FALL INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S.

SUNDAY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE MOVES OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO...AND PUSHES A NICE WING OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE
CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.  THIS WAVE WILL BE WORKING WITH A
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS...AND EXPECT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY
BE CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD AND PARTS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN...WITH
MAYBE SOME VIRGA ELSEWHERE.  DO HAVE SOME CHANCE POPS FOR COOK
COUNTY WITH A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT.  HIGHS ON SUNDAY SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS NORTHEAST...TO THE
LOW 60S OVER THE SOUTHWEST WHERE THE WARM AIR ADVECTION...MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND DEEP MIXING IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE EXITING TO THE EAST SUN NIGHT AND
MONDAY WITH A FEW LINGERING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AND IN THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH EXPECTED TO TRACK THROUGH MN
WED NIGHT AND THUR MORNING...WITH AREAS OF RAIN POSSIBLE. A MORE
BROAD...BUT NOT AS AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN INTO THE LATTER
HALF OF THE WEEK WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN VERY MILD THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND LOWER 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AFTER THE LOW SCT/BKN DECK MIXES OUT THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION RA/VCSH AT THIS POINT...BUT INL
AND HIB MAY NEED VCSH AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
PERIOD OF LLWS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH 1500FT WINDS 25
TO 35 KT FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT THE SFC.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  57  42  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  36  58  39  50 /  10  10   0  10
BRD  39  63  41  56 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  32  57  41  54 /   0  10   0  10
ASX  31  57  42  53 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT








000
FXUS63 KDLH 181726 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ECHO COVERAGE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE
HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ENDED...AS FORECAST BY THE RAP DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED. A FAVORABLE SET FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS FAR AS FETCH AND
DELTA-T VALUES ARE CONCERNED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND INVERSION LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. WE WILL CARRY SOME POPS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WERE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE
RAP DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WE EXPECT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUN IS EXPECTED EARLIER FROM THE NORTH SHORE CLOSE TO THE LAKE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE DOWN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE IN. THE AIRMASS IS
INITIALLY QUITE DRY...SO WE DELAYED ANY POPS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH LOW POPS SOUTH AND HIGHER POPS FAR NORTH.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ARE PRIMARILY A
REFLECTION OF THE WETTER ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AFTER THE LOW SCT/BKN DECK MIXES OUT THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION RA/VCSH AT THIS POINT...BUT INL
AND HIB MAY NEED VCSH AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
PERIOD OF LLWS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH 1500FT WINDS 25
TO 35 KT FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT THE SFC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  34  56  42 /  10  10  30  10
INL  46  37  59  40 /  10  20  30   0
BRD  49  40  62  42 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  47  31  57  41 /  10  10  20   0
ASX  48  31  56  42 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 181726 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM MANITOBA INTO THE DAKOTAS WILL MOVE
EAST TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND...THEN CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OF THE
REGION TONIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

LATEST RADAR SHOWS ECHO COVERAGE DIMINISHING OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND THIS IS IN LINE WITH LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. THE
GRAVITY WAVE INDUCED AREA OF PRECIP OVER THE NORTH SHORE INTO THE
HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAS ENDED...AS FORECAST BY THE RAP DUE TO DECREASING
MOISTURE AND WIND SPEED. A FAVORABLE SET FOR LAKE EFFECT PRECIP
EXISTS ACROSS NORTHERN ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES AS FAR AS FETCH AND
DELTA-T VALUES ARE CONCERNED THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AND INVERSION LEVELS WILL BE LOWERING
THROUGH THE MORNING. WE WILL CARRY SOME POPS FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LACK OF MOISTURE WILL SHUT DOWN ANY LAKE
EFFECT LATER THIS MORNING. THERE WERE STILL PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND AND UPSTREAM OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO THIS MORNING. THE
RAP DOES SHOW THESE CLOUDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
DAY...AND WE EXPECT CLEARING FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE DAY. MORE
SUN IS EXPECTED EARLIER FROM THE NORTH SHORE CLOSE TO THE LAKE
DOWN TOWARD THE TWIN PORTS DUE TO SUBSIDENCE DOWN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.

CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...THEN CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
AS A SHORTWAVE AND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE IN. THE AIRMASS IS
INITIALLY QUITE DRY...SO WE DELAYED ANY POPS UNTIL LATE TONIGHT
OVER NORTHERN AREAS. WE HAVE A CHANCE OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF
THE REGION SUNDAY...WITH LOW POPS SOUTH AND HIGHER POPS FAR NORTH.
RAINFALL WILL BE QUITE LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH MOST AREAS ONLY
RECEIVING A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 AM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM NW ONTARIO TO THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. ITS COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT FROM THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY TO THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO THE REGION FOR
THE MIDDLE AND LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY...THEY WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

A PASSING TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BRING SHOWERS TO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND GEM ARE MUCH DRIER THAN THE
ECMWF...SO THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST ARE PRIMARILY A
REFLECTION OF THE WETTER ECMWF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT SAT OCT 18 2014

AFTER THE LOW SCT/BKN DECK MIXES OUT THIS MORNING VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A WEAK FRONT MOVING
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AND SUN MORNING. ANY PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT...AND MAINLY CONFINED TO THE ARROWHEAD.
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO MENTION RA/VCSH AT THIS POINT...BUT INL
AND HIB MAY NEED VCSH AROUND 12Z SUN MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
PERIOD OF LLWS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE FRONT...WITH 1500FT WINDS 25
TO 35 KT FROM THE SW AND LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AT THE SFC.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  34  56  42 /  10  10  30  10
INL  46  37  59  40 /  10  20  30   0
BRD  49  40  62  42 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  47  31  57  41 /  10  10  20   0
ASX  48  31  56  42 /  10  10  30  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...BJT








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