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000
FXUS63 KDLH 302048
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
348 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A STEADILY DEEPENING LOW HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH MAINLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS.  THE SYSTEM HAS SPREAD LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TOWARDS THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITATION EXTENDING ALONG THE WESTERN
BORDER OF MINNESOTA BEFORE CURVING BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA.  OF LOCAL
CONCERN...AN AREA OF STRATUS LINGERS FROM OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR GENERALLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS
NORTHEAST TO AROUND LUTSEN.  IT ALSO EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE LAKE TO
THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA.  UNDER THESE CLOUDS IT HAS LINGERED IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S...BUT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST...PUSHING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THIS BAND TO GET PRETTY SCATTERED
IN NATURE...ESPECIALLY FOR FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...SO HAVE LOWERED
POPS THERE.  HOWEVER...WE GET A FRESH SURGE OF MOISTURE AND
FRONTOGENESIS IN HERE TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH THEN MOVES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS SHOULD ALSO
HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR US TO GET A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
DURING THIS TIME RANGE.  HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
REDUCED THEM FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES...IF NOT MORE.  THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL BE IN THE 50S AND CHILLY IN THE RAIN
WEDNESDAY...BUT FARTHER WEST TOWARDS INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND BRAINERD
60S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INITIAL EJECTING MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL DRAG A SFC FRONTAL BDRY
INTO THE CWA WED NIGHT. THIS BDRY WILL THEN SERVE AS THE LOW LVL
FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS A SFC LOW FORMS SOUTH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY. WILL HAVE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP MOVE ACROSS ERN HALF
OF CWA WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY AS WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. POPS WILL INCREASE
THUR AFTN AS THE SFC LOW MOVES FROM SRN PLAINS INTO SWRN WISC. THIS
OCCURS AS MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF MID LVL TROF TAKES PLACE ACROSS NRN
PLAINS. STRONG MDL AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF SFC LOW THURSDAY. ECM/GEN
PREFER A DEEPER SOLUTION THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES NE OF ISLE ROYALE BY 12Z FRI. GFS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER
EAST NEAR KGRB. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO
THE FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED AND STRONG FORCING. AT THIS TIME
THE MAJOR MSTR TRANSPORT AXES AMONGST THE MODELS FAVORS THE SERN CWA
WHERE HIGHER PWATS OCCUR. STRONG KINEMATICS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ANOMALOUS MID LVL FEATURE SO EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS FRIDAY. SFC LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER NORTH INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A FAIRLY DEEP CYCLONIC MOIST FLOW LEFT IN ITS WAKE OVER
THE REGION. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CH RW THROUGH WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED BETWEEN INSTABILITY
SHOWERS SATURDAY....AND A SHORTWAVE TROF POSSIBLY SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BLO CLIMO FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT  1250 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STRATUS CLOUD FIELD IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON SO VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BY MID AFTN. NEXT SFC/MID LVL SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO REGION THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP AFFECTING
KBRD TERMINAL AROUND 06Z...AND SPREADING TOWARDS REMAINDER OF TERMINALS
BY 12Z. HIGHER PROB OF IFR CEILINGS OVER WRN SITES BASED ON MORE
EXTENSIVE TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURRING. ADDITIONALLY IFR CEILINGS
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT KDLH WITH TERRAIN LIFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  56  52  62 /  50  50  40  60
INL  45  61  48  60 /  20  20  20  30
BRD  51  65  48  63 /  30  20  10  50
HYR  46  57  54  64 /  60  70  50  70
ASX  44  58  52  63 /  40  60  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON








000
FXUS63 KDLH 302048
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
348 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A STEADILY DEEPENING LOW HAS BEEN MOVING NORTH ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALLS
ACROSS NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA.  THE FORECAST AREA IS IN THE
RELATIVELY DRY AIRMASS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH MAINLY EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS.  THE SYSTEM HAS SPREAD LOTS OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
TOWARDS THE AREA...WITH PRECIPITATION EXTENDING ALONG THE WESTERN
BORDER OF MINNESOTA BEFORE CURVING BACK INTO NORTH DAKOTA.  OF LOCAL
CONCERN...AN AREA OF STRATUS LINGERS FROM OVERNIGHT AND YESTERDAY
ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR GENERALLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS
NORTHEAST TO AROUND LUTSEN.  IT ALSO EXTENDS EAST ACROSS THE LAKE TO
THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA.  UNDER THESE CLOUDS IT HAS LINGERED IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S...BUT TEMPS HAVE RISEN INTO THE 50S ELSEWHERE.
TONIGHT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST...PUSHING THE BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.  THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT
THE FORCING WILL WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR THIS BAND TO GET PRETTY SCATTERED
IN NATURE...ESPECIALLY FOR FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...SO HAVE LOWERED
POPS THERE.  HOWEVER...WE GET A FRESH SURGE OF MOISTURE AND
FRONTOGENESIS IN HERE TOWARDS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHICH THEN MOVES
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.  THIS SHOULD ALSO
HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR US TO GET A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
DURING THIS TIME RANGE.  HAVE MAINTAINED THE HIGH POPS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD FOR WEDNESDAY...BUT
REDUCED THEM FOR PARTS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA.  WITH THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER EXPECT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT
BY AT LEAST A FEW DEGREES...IF NOT MORE.  THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL BE IN THE 50S AND CHILLY IN THE RAIN
WEDNESDAY...BUT FARTHER WEST TOWARDS INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND BRAINERD
60S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

INITIAL EJECTING MID LVL SHORTWAVE TROF WILL DRAG A SFC FRONTAL BDRY
INTO THE CWA WED NIGHT. THIS BDRY WILL THEN SERVE AS THE LOW LVL
FOCUS FOR INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS A SFC LOW FORMS SOUTH OF THE
AREA THURSDAY. WILL HAVE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIP MOVE ACROSS ERN HALF
OF CWA WED NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF LULL IN ACTIVITY AS WEAK SFC
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD EASTWARD INTO THE REGION. POPS WILL INCREASE
THUR AFTN AS THE SFC LOW MOVES FROM SRN PLAINS INTO SWRN WISC. THIS
OCCURS AS MAJOR AMPLIFICATION OF MID LVL TROF TAKES PLACE ACROSS NRN
PLAINS. STRONG MDL AGREEMENT ON TRACK OF SFC LOW THURSDAY. ECM/GEN
PREFER A DEEPER SOLUTION THUR NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY AS THE SFC LOW
INTENSIFIES NE OF ISLE ROYALE BY 12Z FRI. GFS MUCH WEAKER AND FARTHER
EAST NEAR KGRB. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL DEVELOP WITH THIS SYSTEM DUE TO
THE FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF ORGANIZED AND STRONG FORCING. AT THIS TIME
THE MAJOR MSTR TRANSPORT AXES AMONGST THE MODELS FAVORS THE SERN CWA
WHERE HIGHER PWATS OCCUR. STRONG KINEMATICS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
ANOMALOUS MID LVL FEATURE SO EXPECT AN EXTENSIVE PERIOD OF GUSTY
WINDS FRIDAY. SFC LOW WILL MOVE FARTHER NORTH INTO ONTARIO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH A FAIRLY DEEP CYCLONIC MOIST FLOW LEFT IN ITS WAKE OVER
THE REGION. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CH RW THROUGH WEEKEND ALTHOUGH THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER INTERSPERSED BETWEEN INSTABILITY
SHOWERS SATURDAY....AND A SHORTWAVE TROF POSSIBLY SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN BLO CLIMO FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT  1250 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STRATUS CLOUD FIELD IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON SO VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BY MID AFTN. NEXT SFC/MID LVL SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO REGION THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP AFFECTING
KBRD TERMINAL AROUND 06Z...AND SPREADING TOWARDS REMAINDER OF TERMINALS
BY 12Z. HIGHER PROB OF IFR CEILINGS OVER WRN SITES BASED ON MORE
EXTENSIVE TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURRING. ADDITIONALLY IFR CEILINGS
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT KDLH WITH TERRAIN LIFT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  56  52  62 /  50  50  40  60
INL  45  61  48  60 /  20  20  20  30
BRD  51  65  48  63 /  30  20  10  50
HYR  46  57  54  64 /  60  70  50  70
ASX  44  58  52  63 /  40  60  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON









000
FXUS63 KDLH 301804 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
104 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE AREA A BIT LONGER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWING STRONG CLEARING IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SHOWING
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE.. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL AT ELAST GO BKN-SCT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS
BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FA FROM NW ONTARIO AT 07Z.
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE FA. HOWEVER...LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HEADING FOR THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AFTER JUST CLEARING ISLE ROYALE. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...WILL HAVE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND
INTRODUCE A CLEARING TREND. OTHERWISE...A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH
COOL MAX TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE IN THE UPPER 40S. 50S TO NEAR
60 ELSEWHERE.

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE MASS FIELDS BUT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE
QPF. THE GFS IS MOST GENEROUS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS SO.
LEANED AWAY FROM THE GFS QPF AND SIDED WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THIS
RESULTED IN A NEW ALIGNMENT OF THE POPS. ADDED BACK A MENTION OF
ISOLD THUNDER TONIGHT AS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF H85 LI`S TO -1C WILL
BE FOUND IN THE WAA ZONE IN CONCERT WITH THE LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LLJ MOVES OVER NW WI AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES
NWD. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SAME ARE BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET MOVES OVERHEAD. LEFT
OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE MORNING AS INSTABILITY AXIS IS
WELL S OF THE AREA. ADDED THE ISOLD THUNDER MENTION BACK IN THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO THE WAA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
FORMING THURSDAY NIGHT OVER/NEAR MINNESOTA/THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND...THEN CONTINUE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OCCURRING OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
MAINLY EASTERN AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING IN THE
EVENING. A STRONGER WAVE WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE THURSDAY AND
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THESE FEATURES. WE
INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND.

A COLD UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE UPPER LOW WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. COLDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW. IT DOES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO
MIX IN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS BRIEF
RIDGING MOVES IN. HOWEVER...A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS RETURNS
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
FIFTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT  1250 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STRATUS CLOUD FIELD IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON SO VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BY MID AFTN. NEXT SFC/MID LVL SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO REGION THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP AFFECTING
KBRD TERMINAL AROUND 06Z...AND SPREADING TOWARDS REMAINDER OF TERMINALS
BY 12Z. HIGHER PROB OF IFR CEILINGS OVER WRN SITES BASED ON MORE
EXTENSIVE TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURRING. ADDITIONALLY IFR CEILINGS
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT KDLH WITH TERRAIN LIFT.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  46  56  51 /   0  50  50  40
INL  59  45  60  49 /   0  30  30  20
BRD  59  51  65  50 /   0  40  20  10
HYR  60  47  57  53 /   0  50  70  40
ASX  55  44  58  54 /   0  20  70  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...CANNON







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301804 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
104 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1046 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE AREA A BIT LONGER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWING STRONG CLEARING IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SHOWING
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE.. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL AT ELAST GO BKN-SCT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS
BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FA FROM NW ONTARIO AT 07Z.
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE FA. HOWEVER...LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HEADING FOR THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AFTER JUST CLEARING ISLE ROYALE. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...WILL HAVE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND
INTRODUCE A CLEARING TREND. OTHERWISE...A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH
COOL MAX TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE IN THE UPPER 40S. 50S TO NEAR
60 ELSEWHERE.

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE MASS FIELDS BUT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE
QPF. THE GFS IS MOST GENEROUS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS SO.
LEANED AWAY FROM THE GFS QPF AND SIDED WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THIS
RESULTED IN A NEW ALIGNMENT OF THE POPS. ADDED BACK A MENTION OF
ISOLD THUNDER TONIGHT AS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF H85 LI`S TO -1C WILL
BE FOUND IN THE WAA ZONE IN CONCERT WITH THE LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LLJ MOVES OVER NW WI AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES
NWD. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SAME ARE BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET MOVES OVERHEAD. LEFT
OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE MORNING AS INSTABILITY AXIS IS
WELL S OF THE AREA. ADDED THE ISOLD THUNDER MENTION BACK IN THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO THE WAA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
FORMING THURSDAY NIGHT OVER/NEAR MINNESOTA/THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND...THEN CONTINUE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OCCURRING OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
MAINLY EASTERN AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING IN THE
EVENING. A STRONGER WAVE WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE THURSDAY AND
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THESE FEATURES. WE
INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND.

A COLD UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE UPPER LOW WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. COLDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW. IT DOES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO
MIX IN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS BRIEF
RIDGING MOVES IN. HOWEVER...A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS RETURNS
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
FIFTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT  1250 PM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

STRATUS CLOUD FIELD IS DIMINISHING RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON SO VFR
SHOULD PREVAIL AT ALL SITES BY MID AFTN. NEXT SFC/MID LVL SYSTEM
WILL SPREAD CLOUDS INTO REGION THIS EVENING WITH PRECIP AFFECTING
KBRD TERMINAL AROUND 06Z...AND SPREADING TOWARDS REMAINDER OF TERMINALS
BY 12Z. HIGHER PROB OF IFR CEILINGS OVER WRN SITES BASED ON MORE
EXTENSIVE TOP DOWN SATURATION OCCURRING. ADDITIONALLY IFR CEILINGS
MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AT KDLH WITH TERRAIN LIFT.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  46  56  51 /   0  50  50  40
INL  59  45  60  49 /   0  30  30  20
BRD  59  51  65  50 /   0  40  20  10
HYR  60  47  57  53 /   0  50  70  40
ASX  55  44  58  54 /   0  20  70  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...CANNON








000
FXUS63 KDLH 301551 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1051 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AMCDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE AREA A BIT LONGER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWING STRONG CLEARING IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SHOWING
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE.. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL AT ELAST GO BKN-SCT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS
BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FA FROM NW ONTARIO AT 07Z.
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE FA. HOWEVER...LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HEADING FOR THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AFTER JUST CLEARING ISLE ROYALE. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...WILL HAVE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND
INTRODUCE A CLEARING TREND. OTHERWISE...A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH
COOL MAX TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE IN THE UPPER 40S. 50S TO NEAR
60 ELSEWHERE.

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE MASS FIELDS BUT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE
QPF. THE GFS IS MOST GENEROUS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS SO.
LEANED AWAY FROM THE GFS QPF AND SIDED WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THIS
RESULTED IN A NEW ALIGNMENT OF THE POPS. ADDED BACK A MENTION OF
ISOLD THUNDER TONIGHT AS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF H85 LI`S TO -1C WILL
BE FOUND IN THE WAA ZONE IN CONCERT WITH THE LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LLJ MOVES OVER NW WI AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES
NWD. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SAME ARE BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET MOVES OVERHEAD. LEFT
OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE MORNING AS INSTABILITY AXIS IS
WELL S OF THE AREA. ADDED THE ISOLD THUNDER MENTION BACK IN THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO THE WAA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
FORMING THURSDAY NIGHT OVER/NEAR MINNESOTA/THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND...THEN CONTINUE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OCCURRING OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
MAINLY EASTERN AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING IN THE
EVENING. A STRONGER WAVE WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE THURSDAY AND
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THESE FEATURES. WE
INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND.

A COLD UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE UPPER LOW WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. COLDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW. IT DOES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO
MIX IN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS BRIEF
RIDGING MOVES IN. HOWEVER...A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS RETURNS
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
FIFTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS COVERED THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THE INVERSION IS RATHER STRONG AND WE ARE ENTERING THE TIME OF
YEAR WHERE IT TAKES LONGER FOR THESE TYPE OF CLOUDS TO
LIFT/DISSIPATE. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS
WILL LIFT AND DECREASE. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CEILINGS LIFTING
AND THE MOISTURE BECOMING VERY THIN. WE WENT WITH A MORE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH WITH THE STRONG INVERSION EITHER DELAYING OR
KEEPING THE CLOUDS IN TACT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE DID GO SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AT KHYR/KBRD/KINL BUT ONLY HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AT KHIB/KDLH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT AND
SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND WE HAVE A
MENTION IN MOST TAF SITS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  46  56  51 /   0  50  50  40
INL  59  45  60  49 /   0  30  30  20
BRD  59  51  65  50 /   0  40  20  10
HYR  60  47  57  53 /   0  50  70  40
ASX  55  44  58  54 /   0  20  70  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301551 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1051 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1046 AMCDT TUE SEP 30 2014

UPDATED TO KEEP CLOUDS IN THE AREA A BIT LONGER. VISIBLE SATELLITE
SHOWING STRONG CLEARING IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD AND SHOWING
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER ELSEWHERE.. WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
BELIEVE MOST AREAS WILL AT ELAST GO BKN-SCT BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
LOOKING UPSTREAM...STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BRING CLOUDS
BACK INTO THE AREA TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FA FROM NW ONTARIO AT 07Z.
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE FA. HOWEVER...LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HEADING FOR THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AFTER JUST CLEARING ISLE ROYALE. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...WILL HAVE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND
INTRODUCE A CLEARING TREND. OTHERWISE...A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH
COOL MAX TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE IN THE UPPER 40S. 50S TO NEAR
60 ELSEWHERE.

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE MASS FIELDS BUT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE
QPF. THE GFS IS MOST GENEROUS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS SO.
LEANED AWAY FROM THE GFS QPF AND SIDED WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THIS
RESULTED IN A NEW ALIGNMENT OF THE POPS. ADDED BACK A MENTION OF
ISOLD THUNDER TONIGHT AS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF H85 LI`S TO -1C WILL
BE FOUND IN THE WAA ZONE IN CONCERT WITH THE LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LLJ MOVES OVER NW WI AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES
NWD. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SAME ARE BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET MOVES OVERHEAD. LEFT
OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE MORNING AS INSTABILITY AXIS IS
WELL S OF THE AREA. ADDED THE ISOLD THUNDER MENTION BACK IN THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO THE WAA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
FORMING THURSDAY NIGHT OVER/NEAR MINNESOTA/THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND...THEN CONTINUE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OCCURRING OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
MAINLY EASTERN AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING IN THE
EVENING. A STRONGER WAVE WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE THURSDAY AND
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THESE FEATURES. WE
INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND.

A COLD UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE UPPER LOW WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. COLDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW. IT DOES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO
MIX IN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS BRIEF
RIDGING MOVES IN. HOWEVER...A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS RETURNS
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
FIFTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS COVERED THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THE INVERSION IS RATHER STRONG AND WE ARE ENTERING THE TIME OF
YEAR WHERE IT TAKES LONGER FOR THESE TYPE OF CLOUDS TO
LIFT/DISSIPATE. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS
WILL LIFT AND DECREASE. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CEILINGS LIFTING
AND THE MOISTURE BECOMING VERY THIN. WE WENT WITH A MORE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH WITH THE STRONG INVERSION EITHER DELAYING OR
KEEPING THE CLOUDS IN TACT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE DID GO SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AT KHYR/KBRD/KINL BUT ONLY HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AT KHIB/KDLH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT AND
SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND WE HAVE A
MENTION IN MOST TAF SITS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  46  56  51 /   0  50  50  40
INL  59  45  60  49 /   0  30  30  20
BRD  59  51  65  50 /   0  40  20  10
HYR  60  47  57  53 /   0  50  70  40
ASX  55  44  58  54 /   0  20  70  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 301143
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FA FROM NW ONTARIO AT 07Z.
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE FA. HOWEVER...LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HEADING FOR THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AFTER JUST CLEARING ISLE ROYALE. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...WILL HAVE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND
INTRODUCE A CLEARING TREND. OTHERWISE...A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH
COOL MAX TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE IN THE UPPER 40S. 50S TO NEAR
60 ELSEWHERE.

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE MASS FIELDS BUT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE
QPF. THE GFS IS MOST GENEROUS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS SO.
LEANED AWAY FROM THE GFS QPF AND SIDED WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THIS
RESULTED IN A NEW ALIGNMENT OF THE POPS. ADDED BACK A MENTION OF
ISOLD THUNDER TONIGHT AS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF H85 LI`S TO -1C WILL
BE FOUND IN THE WAA ZONE IN CONCERT WITH THE LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LLJ MOVES OVER NW WI AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES
NWD. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SAME ARE BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET MOVES OVERHEAD. LEFT
OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE MORNING AS INSTABILITY AXIS IS
WELL S OF THE AREA. ADDED THE ISOLD THUNDER MENTION BACK IN THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO THE WAA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
FORMING THURSDAY NIGHT OVER/NEAR MINNESOTA/THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND...THEN CONTINUE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OCCURRING OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
MAINLY EASTERN AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING IN THE
EVENING. A STRONGER WAVE WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE THURSDAY AND
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THESE FEATURES. WE
INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND.

A COLD UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE UPPER LOW WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. COLDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW. IT DOES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO
MIX IN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS BRIEF
RIDGING MOVES IN. HOWEVER...A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS RETURNS
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
FIFTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS COVERED THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THE INVERSION IS RATHER STRONG AND WE ARE ENTERING THE TIME OF
YEAR WHERE IT TAKES LONGER FOR THESE TYPE OF CLOUDS TO
LIFT/DISSIPATE. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS
WILL LIFT AND DECREASE. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CEILINGS LIFTING
AND THE MOISTURE BECOMING VERY THIN. WE WENT WITH A MORE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH WITH THE STRONG INVERSION EITHER DELAYING OR
KEEPING THE CLOUDS IN TACT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE DID GO SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AT KHYR/KBRD/KINL BUT ONLY HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AT KHIB/KDLH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT AND
SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND WE HAVE A
MENTION IN MOST TAF SITS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  46  56  51 /   0  50  50  40
INL  59  45  60  49 /   0  30  30  20
BRD  59  51  65  50 /   0  40  20  10
HYR  60  47  57  53 /   0  50  70  40
ASX  55  44  58  54 /   0  20  70  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 301143
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FA FROM NW ONTARIO AT 07Z.
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE FA. HOWEVER...LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HEADING FOR THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AFTER JUST CLEARING ISLE ROYALE. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...WILL HAVE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND
INTRODUCE A CLEARING TREND. OTHERWISE...A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH
COOL MAX TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE IN THE UPPER 40S. 50S TO NEAR
60 ELSEWHERE.

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE MASS FIELDS BUT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE
QPF. THE GFS IS MOST GENEROUS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS SO.
LEANED AWAY FROM THE GFS QPF AND SIDED WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THIS
RESULTED IN A NEW ALIGNMENT OF THE POPS. ADDED BACK A MENTION OF
ISOLD THUNDER TONIGHT AS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF H85 LI`S TO -1C WILL
BE FOUND IN THE WAA ZONE IN CONCERT WITH THE LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LLJ MOVES OVER NW WI AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES
NWD. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SAME ARE BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET MOVES OVERHEAD. LEFT
OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE MORNING AS INSTABILITY AXIS IS
WELL S OF THE AREA. ADDED THE ISOLD THUNDER MENTION BACK IN THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO THE WAA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
FORMING THURSDAY NIGHT OVER/NEAR MINNESOTA/THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND...THEN CONTINUE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OCCURRING OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
MAINLY EASTERN AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING IN THE
EVENING. A STRONGER WAVE WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE THURSDAY AND
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THESE FEATURES. WE
INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND.

A COLD UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE UPPER LOW WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. COLDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW. IT DOES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO
MIX IN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS BRIEF
RIDGING MOVES IN. HOWEVER...A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS RETURNS
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
FIFTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

IFR/LOW MVFR CEILINGS COVERED THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THESE
CLOUDS HAVE EXPANDED OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE REGION. CONFIDENCE
REMAINS LOWER THAN AVERAGE ON HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR TODAY.
THE INVERSION IS RATHER STRONG AND WE ARE ENTERING THE TIME OF
YEAR WHERE IT TAKES LONGER FOR THESE TYPE OF CLOUDS TO
LIFT/DISSIPATE. MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE CLOUDS
WILL LIFT AND DECREASE. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CEILINGS LIFTING
AND THE MOISTURE BECOMING VERY THIN. WE WENT WITH A MORE
PESSIMISTIC APPROACH WITH THE STRONG INVERSION EITHER DELAYING OR
KEEPING THE CLOUDS IN TACT THROUGH THE PERIOD. WE DID GO SCATTERED
THIS AFTERNOON AT KHYR/KBRD/KINL BUT ONLY HAVE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
SCATTERED LOWER CLOUDS AT KHIB/KDLH.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTH INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT AND
SOME SHOWERS OR A THUNDERSTORM WILL OCCUR OVER THE REGION. SHOWERS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT MOST TAF SITES LATER TONIGHT AND WE HAVE A
MENTION IN MOST TAF SITS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  46  56  51 /   0  50  50  40
INL  59  45  60  49 /   0  30  30  20
BRD  59  51  65  50 /   0  40  20  10
HYR  60  47  57  53 /   0  50  70  40
ASX  55  44  58  54 /   0  20  70  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300809
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FA FROM NW ONTARIO AT 07Z.
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE FA. HOWEVER...LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HEADING FOR THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AFTER JUST CLEARING ISLE ROYALE. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...WILL HAVE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND
INTRODUCE A CLEARING TREND. OTHERWISE...A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH
COOL MAX TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE IN THE UPPER 40S. 50S TO NEAR
60 ELSEWHERE.

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE MASS FIELDS BUT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE
QPF. THE GFS IS MOST GENEROUS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS SO.
LEANED AWAY FROM THE GFS QPF AND SIDED WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THIS
RESULTED IN A NEW ALIGNMENT OF THE POPS. ADDED BACK A MENTION OF
ISOLD THUNDER TONIGHT AS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF H85 LI`S TO -1C WILL
BE FOUND IN THE WAA ZONE IN CONCERT WITH THE LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LLJ MOVES OVER NW WI AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES
NWD. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SAME ARE BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET MOVES OVERHEAD. LEFT
OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE MORNING AS INSTABILITY AXIS IS
WELL S OF THE AREA. ADDED THE ISOLD THUNDER MENTION BACK IN THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO THE WAA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
FORMING THURSDAY NIGHT OVER/NEAR MINNESOTA/THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND...THEN CONTINUE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OCCURRING OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
MAINLY EASTERN AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING IN THE
EVENING. A STRONGER WAVE WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE THURSDAY AND
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THESE FEATURES. WE
INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND.

A COLD UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE UPPER LOW WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. COLDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW. IT DOES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO
MIX IN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS BRIEF
RIDGING MOVES IN. HOWEVER...A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS RETURNS
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
FIFTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL
ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAY BREAK. THERE REMAINS
DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING TIMING OF LIFTING CEILINGS TUESDAY...DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HAVE KEPT MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KHIB AND KDLH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INTRODUCED A
TREND TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SKIES AT KBRD...KINL AND KHYR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  46  56  51 /   0  50  50  40
INL  59  45  60  49 /   0  30  30  20
BRD  59  51  65  50 /   0  40  20  10
HYR  60  47  57  53 /   0  50  70  40
ASX  55  44  58  54 /   0  20  70  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 300809
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING INTO THE FA FROM NW ONTARIO AT 07Z.
WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR...THIS HAS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER OVER THE FA. HOWEVER...LATEST IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY REVEALS THE BACK EDGE OF THE CLOUDS HEADING FOR THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AFTER JUST CLEARING ISLE ROYALE. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...WILL HAVE TO ADJUST CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING AND
INTRODUCE A CLEARING TREND. OTHERWISE...A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH
COOL MAX TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE IN THE UPPER 40S. 50S TO NEAR
60 ELSEWHERE.

A DEEPENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES NWD THROUGH THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT...REACHING SOUTHERN MANITOBA BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. MODELS ARE
FAIRLY SIMILAR IN THE MASS FIELDS BUT DIFFERENCES SHOW UP IN THE
QPF. THE GFS IS MOST GENEROUS...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE LESS SO.
LEANED AWAY FROM THE GFS QPF AND SIDED WITH THE OTHER MODELS. THIS
RESULTED IN A NEW ALIGNMENT OF THE POPS. ADDED BACK A MENTION OF
ISOLD THUNDER TONIGHT AS A NARROW CORRIDOR OF H85 LI`S TO -1C WILL
BE FOUND IN THE WAA ZONE IN CONCERT WITH THE LLJ MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE LLJ MOVES OVER NW WI AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES
NWD. UPPER DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SAME ARE BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY AS RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF H25 JET MOVES OVERHEAD. LEFT
OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE MORNING AS INSTABILITY AXIS IS
WELL S OF THE AREA. ADDED THE ISOLD THUNDER MENTION BACK IN THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A BIT WARMER
THANKS TO THE WAA.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES
SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHWEST CONUS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST WITH A CLOSED UPPER LOW
FORMING THURSDAY NIGHT OVER/NEAR MINNESOTA/THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. THE
LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE FIRST PART OF
THE WEEKEND...THEN CONTINUE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
A COLD NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OCCURRING OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

A SHORTWAVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
MAINLY EASTERN AREAS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING IN THE
EVENING. A STRONGER WAVE WILL DEVELOP A SURFACE WAVE THURSDAY AND
THERE WILL BE A BETTER CHANCE FOR RAIN WITH THESE FEATURES. WE
INCREASED POPS QUITE A BIT THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT OVER MUCH OF THE
CWA. CHANCES STILL LOOK TO BE HIGHEST OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
NORTHLAND.

A COLD UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY AND THE CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE. THE UPPER LOW WILL ONLY MOVE SLOWLY EAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. COLDER TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE IN ON NORTHWEST FLOW. IT DOES LOOK COLD ENOUGH FOR SOME SNOW TO
MIX IN OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. LITTLE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

MOST AREAS WILL SEE A BREAK FROM THE SHOWERS ON SATURDAY AS BRIEF
RIDGING MOVES IN. HOWEVER...A CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERS RETURNS
SUNDAY/MONDAY AS A CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES FOR MOST AREAS
THURSDAY...THEN DROP INTO THE UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY/MONDAY WILL MAINLY BE IN THE
FIFTIES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL
ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAY BREAK. THERE REMAINS
DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING TIMING OF LIFTING CEILINGS TUESDAY...DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HAVE KEPT MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KHIB AND KDLH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INTRODUCED A
TREND TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SKIES AT KBRD...KINL AND KHYR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  46  56  51 /   0  50  50  40
INL  59  45  60  49 /   0  30  30  20
BRD  59  51  65  50 /   0  40  20  10
HYR  60  47  57  53 /   0  50  70  40
ASX  55  44  58  54 /   0  20  70  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 300527
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1227 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLOUDS...WINDS AND TEMPERATURES THE MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A SURFACE RIDGE SAGS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY
PERSISTENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN AND THE SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH.  HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE
CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN EFFECTS OF THE NORTHEAST WIND MOVING OVER
OUR RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THERE HAS
BEEN VERY PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND EVEN DRIZZLE THERE.  IN
FACT...EXPECT THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERSISTENT ALL NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  ELSEWHERE THOUGH...THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
SHOULD WORK ITS MAGIC AND SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.  THUS...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE A CHALLENGE AND HAVE
GONE WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S WHERE THE CLOUD COVER TO BE THE MOST
PERSISTENT...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.  TUESDAY THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...INCREASING OUR LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND BRINGING SOME WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
IT WILL MIX OUT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN.  HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND EVEN SOMEWHAT INLAND OF THE NORTH
SHORE...AND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.  THE SURFACE LOW TO
PUSH SHOWERS TOWARDS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THIS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING FOR NEARLY THE WHOLE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROFS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD TROF COVERING THE
NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. THE INITIAL SYSTEM EJECTS NORTH OF THE
REGION TUES NIGHT AS BLOCKING MID LVL RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITY IS RATHER LIMITED BASED ON FCST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY WITH SREF CPTP SHOWING LOW PROB OF THUNDER IN SRN
EDGE OF CWA. QPF AMOUNTS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OVER ERN THIRD OF CWA...ESPECIALLY IN WISC ZONES AS FRONT SLOWS
FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER THE
REGION BY WED NIGHT AS NEXT AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NRN
ROCKIES. SUPERBLEND GIVES POPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BUT THE MASS
FIELDS SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SPELL MAY OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE MUCH
STRONGER FRONTL BDRY ARRIVES THUR NIGHT.STRONG KINEMATICS FCST WITH
SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM SO IMPACTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER OVER LAND TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
GUSTS. ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING A CLOSED MID LVL
LOW OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH GFS/GEM FAVORING HIGHER MAGNITUDE OF MID
LVL TROF OVER SRN CANADA. BRISK NW MID LVL FLOW THROUGH WEEKEND MAY
PRESENT A CHALLENGE FOR TIMING ANY PERIODS OF PRECIP WITH INITIAL
GUESSTIMATE SUNDAY FOR NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY
TREND ABOVE CLIMO THURSDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS OTHERWISE BLO CLIMO MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL
ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAY BREAK. THERE REMAINS
DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING TIMING OF LIFTING CEILINGS TUESDAY...DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HAVE KEPT MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KHIB AND KDLH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INTRODUCED A
TREND TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SKIES AT KBRD...KINL AND KHYR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  59  50  63 /  40  40  30  30
INL  45  63  48  60 /  20  30  20  30
BRD  51  66  50  63 /  60  20  20  20
HYR  48  62  52  65 /  40  60  50  30
ASX  45  62  53  64 /  20  50  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 300527
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1227 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLOUDS...WINDS AND TEMPERATURES THE MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A SURFACE RIDGE SAGS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY
PERSISTENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN AND THE SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH.  HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE
CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN EFFECTS OF THE NORTHEAST WIND MOVING OVER
OUR RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THERE HAS
BEEN VERY PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND EVEN DRIZZLE THERE.  IN
FACT...EXPECT THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERSISTENT ALL NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  ELSEWHERE THOUGH...THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
SHOULD WORK ITS MAGIC AND SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.  THUS...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE A CHALLENGE AND HAVE
GONE WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S WHERE THE CLOUD COVER TO BE THE MOST
PERSISTENT...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.  TUESDAY THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...INCREASING OUR LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND BRINGING SOME WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
IT WILL MIX OUT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN.  HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND EVEN SOMEWHAT INLAND OF THE NORTH
SHORE...AND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.  THE SURFACE LOW TO
PUSH SHOWERS TOWARDS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THIS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING FOR NEARLY THE WHOLE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROFS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD TROF COVERING THE
NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. THE INITIAL SYSTEM EJECTS NORTH OF THE
REGION TUES NIGHT AS BLOCKING MID LVL RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITY IS RATHER LIMITED BASED ON FCST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY WITH SREF CPTP SHOWING LOW PROB OF THUNDER IN SRN
EDGE OF CWA. QPF AMOUNTS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OVER ERN THIRD OF CWA...ESPECIALLY IN WISC ZONES AS FRONT SLOWS
FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER THE
REGION BY WED NIGHT AS NEXT AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NRN
ROCKIES. SUPERBLEND GIVES POPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BUT THE MASS
FIELDS SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SPELL MAY OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE MUCH
STRONGER FRONTL BDRY ARRIVES THUR NIGHT.STRONG KINEMATICS FCST WITH
SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM SO IMPACTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER OVER LAND TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
GUSTS. ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING A CLOSED MID LVL
LOW OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH GFS/GEM FAVORING HIGHER MAGNITUDE OF MID
LVL TROF OVER SRN CANADA. BRISK NW MID LVL FLOW THROUGH WEEKEND MAY
PRESENT A CHALLENGE FOR TIMING ANY PERIODS OF PRECIP WITH INITIAL
GUESSTIMATE SUNDAY FOR NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY
TREND ABOVE CLIMO THURSDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS OTHERWISE BLO CLIMO MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1226 AM CDT TUE SEP 30 2014

A LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CEILINGS WILL
ENCOMPASS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAY BREAK. THERE REMAINS
DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING TIMING OF LIFTING CEILINGS TUESDAY...DUE
TO THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. HAVE KEPT MVFR
CONDITIONS AT KHIB AND KDLH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. INTRODUCED A
TREND TO VFR WITH SCATTERED SKIES AT KBRD...KINL AND KHYR DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON...WITH A RETURN TO MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  59  50  63 /  40  40  30  30
INL  45  63  48  60 /  20  30  20  30
BRD  51  66  50  63 /  60  20  20  20
HYR  48  62  52  65 /  40  60  50  30
ASX  45  62  53  64 /  20  50  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
718 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLOUDS...WINDS AND TEMPERATURES THE MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A SURFACE RIDGE SAGS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY
PERSISTENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN AND THE SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH.  HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE
CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN EFFECTS OF THE NORTHEAST WIND MOVING OVER
OUR RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THERE HAS
BEEN VERY PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND EVEN DRIZZLE THERE.  IN
FACT...EXPECT THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERSISTENT ALL NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  ELSEWHERE THOUGH...THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
SHOULD WORK ITS MAGIC AND SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.  THUS...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE A CHALLENGE AND HAVE
GONE WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S WHERE THE CLOUD COVER TO BE THE MOST
PERSISTENT...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.  TUESDAY THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...INCREASING OUR LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND BRINGING SOME WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
IT WILL MIX OUT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN.  HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND EVEN SOMEWHAT INLAND OF THE NORTH
SHORE...AND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.  THE SURFACE LOW TO
PUSH SHOWERS TOWARDS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THIS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING FOR NEARLY THE WHOLE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROFS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD TROF COVERING THE
NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. THE INITIAL SYSTEM EJECTS NORTH OF THE
REGION TUES NIGHT AS BLOCKING MID LVL RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITY IS RATHER LIMITED BASED ON FCST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY WITH SREF CPTP SHOWING LOW PROB OF THUNDER IN SRN
EDGE OF CWA. QPF AMOUNTS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OVER ERN THIRD OF CWA...ESPECIALLY IN WISC ZONES AS FRONT SLOWS
FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER THE
REGION BY WED NIGHT AS NEXT AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NRN
ROCKIES. SUPERBLEND GIVES POPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BUT THE MASS
FIELDS SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SPELL MAY OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE MUCH
STRONGER FRONTL BDRY ARRIVES THUR NIGHT.STRONG KINEMATICS FCST WITH
SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM SO IMPACTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER OVER LAND TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
GUSTS. ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING A CLOSED MID LVL
LOW OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH GFS/GEM FAVORING HIGHER MAGNITUDE OF MID
LVL TROF OVER SRN CANADA. BRISK NW MID LVL FLOW THROUGH WEEKEND MAY
PRESENT A CHALLENGE FOR TIMING ANY PERIODS OF PRECIP WITH INITIAL
GUESSTIMATE SUNDAY FOR NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY
TREND ABOVE CLIMO THURSDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS OTHERWISE BLO CLIMO MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS BELOW 2 KFT LINGERING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING TIMING
OF CEILINGS LIFTING TUESDAY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. HAVE KEPT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH A
TEMPO FOR A PERIOD OF IFR AND LIGHT FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...ANTICIPATING THE LOW CLOUDS TO FINALLY SCATTER OUT AT
KINL...KBRD...AND KHYR DURING THE AFTERNOON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  53  44  59 /  10   0  40  40
INL  36  61  45  63 /   0   0  20  30
BRD  38  60  51  66 /   0  10  60  20
HYR  36  61  48  62 /   0   0  40  60
ASX  39  57  45  62 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 300018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
718 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLOUDS...WINDS AND TEMPERATURES THE MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A SURFACE RIDGE SAGS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY
PERSISTENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN AND THE SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH.  HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE
CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN EFFECTS OF THE NORTHEAST WIND MOVING OVER
OUR RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THERE HAS
BEEN VERY PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND EVEN DRIZZLE THERE.  IN
FACT...EXPECT THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERSISTENT ALL NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  ELSEWHERE THOUGH...THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
SHOULD WORK ITS MAGIC AND SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.  THUS...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE A CHALLENGE AND HAVE
GONE WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S WHERE THE CLOUD COVER TO BE THE MOST
PERSISTENT...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.  TUESDAY THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...INCREASING OUR LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND BRINGING SOME WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
IT WILL MIX OUT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN.  HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND EVEN SOMEWHAT INLAND OF THE NORTH
SHORE...AND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.  THE SURFACE LOW TO
PUSH SHOWERS TOWARDS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THIS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING FOR NEARLY THE WHOLE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROFS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD TROF COVERING THE
NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. THE INITIAL SYSTEM EJECTS NORTH OF THE
REGION TUES NIGHT AS BLOCKING MID LVL RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITY IS RATHER LIMITED BASED ON FCST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY WITH SREF CPTP SHOWING LOW PROB OF THUNDER IN SRN
EDGE OF CWA. QPF AMOUNTS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OVER ERN THIRD OF CWA...ESPECIALLY IN WISC ZONES AS FRONT SLOWS
FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER THE
REGION BY WED NIGHT AS NEXT AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NRN
ROCKIES. SUPERBLEND GIVES POPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BUT THE MASS
FIELDS SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SPELL MAY OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE MUCH
STRONGER FRONTL BDRY ARRIVES THUR NIGHT.STRONG KINEMATICS FCST WITH
SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM SO IMPACTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER OVER LAND TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
GUSTS. ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING A CLOSED MID LVL
LOW OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH GFS/GEM FAVORING HIGHER MAGNITUDE OF MID
LVL TROF OVER SRN CANADA. BRISK NW MID LVL FLOW THROUGH WEEKEND MAY
PRESENT A CHALLENGE FOR TIMING ANY PERIODS OF PRECIP WITH INITIAL
GUESSTIMATE SUNDAY FOR NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY
TREND ABOVE CLIMO THURSDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS OTHERWISE BLO CLIMO MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 713 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE AREA OF LOW CLOUDS WITH CEILINGS BELOW 2 KFT LINGERING OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE REMAINS DIFFICULTY IN DETERMINING TIMING
OF CEILINGS LIFTING TUESDAY WITH THE INFLUENCE OF A STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION. HAVE KEPT WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH A
TEMPO FOR A PERIOD OF IFR AND LIGHT FOG IN THE EARLY MORNING. AT
THIS TIME...ANTICIPATING THE LOW CLOUDS TO FINALLY SCATTER OUT AT
KINL...KBRD...AND KHYR DURING THE AFTERNOON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  53  44  59 /  10   0  40  40
INL  36  61  45  63 /   0   0  20  30
BRD  38  60  51  66 /   0  10  60  20
HYR  36  61  48  62 /   0   0  40  60
ASX  39  57  45  62 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 292037
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLOUDS...WINDS AND TEMPERATURES THE MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A SURFACE RIDGE SAGS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY
PERSISTENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN AND THE SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH.  HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE
CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN EFFECTS OF THE NORTHEAST WIND MOVING OVER
OUR RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THERE HAS
BEEN VERY PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND EVEN DRIZZLE THERE.  IN
FACT...EXPECT THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERSISTENT ALL NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  ELSEWHERE THOUGH...THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
SHOULD WORK ITS MAGIC AND SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.  THUS...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE A CHALLENGE AND HAVE
GONE WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S WHERE THE CLOUD COVER TO BE THE MOST
PERSISTENT...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.  TUESDAY THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...INCREASING OUR LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND BRINGING SOME WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
IT WILL MIX OUT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN.  HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND EVEN SOMEWHAT INLAND OF THE NORTH
SHORE...AND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.  THE SURFACE LOW TO
PUSH SHOWERS TOWARDS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THIS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING FOR NEARLY THE WHOLE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROFS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD TROF COVERING THE
NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. THE INITIAL SYSTEM EJECTS NORTH OF THE
REGION TUES NIGHT AS BLOCKING MID LVL RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITY IS RATHER LIMITED BASED ON FCST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY WITH SREF CPTP SHOWING LOW PROB OF THUNDER IN SRN
EDGE OF CWA. QPF AMOUNTS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OVER ERN THIRD OF CWA...ESPECIALLY IN WISC ZONES AS FRONT SLOWS
FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER THE
REGION BY WED NIGHT AS NEXT AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NRN
ROCKIES. SUPERBLEND GIVES POPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BUT THE MASS
FIELDS SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SPELL MAY OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE MUCH
STRONGER FRONTL BDRY ARRIVES THUR NIGHT.STRONG KINEMATICS FCST WITH
SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM SO IMPACTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER OVER LAND TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
GUSTS. ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING A CLOSED MID LVL
LOW OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH GFS/GEM FAVORING HIGHER MAGNITUDE OF MID
LVL TROF OVER SRN CANADA. BRISK NW MID LVL FLOW THROUGH WEEKEND MAY
PRESENT A CHALLENGE FOR TIMING ANY PERIODS OF PRECIP WITH INITIAL
GUESSTIMATE SUNDAY FOR NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY
TREND ABOVE CLIMO THURSDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS OTHERWISE BLO CLIMO MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT  1242 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS LEFT IN WAKE OF RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. FAIRLY
STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA NEXT 24 HRS. THE MAIN DIFFICULTY
IS DETERMINING HOW EXTENSIVE THE STRATUS WILL BE UNDER THE DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SEVERAL OF THE CEILING FCST PRODUCTS FROM HI-
RES MDLS DEPICT RAPID CLEARING TREND LATER TODAY OVER MOST OF CWA
EXCEPT WISC ZONES. HOWEVER VIS SAT IMAGERY NOT IN AGREEMENT SO FAR
WITH A MUCH SLOWER TREND. WILL LEAN WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC
FCST FOR NOW BASED ON FCST MDL SNDGS. LOCAL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ENHANCE LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT NEAR KDLH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  53  44  59 /  10   0  40  40
INL  36  61  45  63 /   0   0  20  30
BRD  38  60  51  66 /   0  10  60  20
HYR  37  61  48  62 /   0   0  40  60
ASX  39  57  45  62 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON










000
FXUS63 KDLH 292037
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

CLOUDS...WINDS AND TEMPERATURES THE MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AS A SURFACE RIDGE SAGS SOUTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS.  CLOUDS HAVE BEEN SURPRISINGLY
PERSISTENT OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON EVEN WITH THE RIDGE
BUILDING IN AND THE SLIGHTLY DRIER DEWPOINTS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTH.  HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT BEEN ENOUGH TO COUNTERACT THE
CONVERGENCE AND TERRAIN EFFECTS OF THE NORTHEAST WIND MOVING OVER
OUR RIDGE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND THERE HAS
BEEN VERY PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER AND EVEN DRIZZLE THERE.  IN
FACT...EXPECT THAT THIS CLOUD COVER WILL BE PERSISTENT ALL NIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  ELSEWHERE THOUGH...THE DRIER AIR MOVING IN
SHOULD WORK ITS MAGIC AND SOME CLEARING CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.  THUS...MIN TEMPS TONIGHT TO BE A CHALLENGE AND HAVE
GONE WITH UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S WHERE THE CLOUD COVER TO BE THE MOST
PERSISTENT...AND MID TO UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE.  TUESDAY THE SURFACE
RIDGE TO SHIFT FARTHER EAST AND THE LOW OVER THE PLAINS TO BEGIN TO
MOVE NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA...INCREASING OUR LOW LEVEL
SOUTHEAST FLOW AND BRINGING SOME WARMER TEMPS INTO THE AREA.  ONCE
AGAIN...THE STRATUS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR FOR AT LEAST THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME OF
IT WILL MIX OUT AS THE WARMER AIR MOVES IN.  HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AND EVEN SOMEWHAT INLAND OF THE NORTH
SHORE...AND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.  THE SURFACE LOW TO
PUSH SHOWERS TOWARDS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT EXPECT THIS TO
HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING FOR NEARLY THE WHOLE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 321 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE UPPER AIR PATTERN THIS PERIOD WILL BE ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF
MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE TROFS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD TROF COVERING THE
NRN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS. THE INITIAL SYSTEM EJECTS NORTH OF THE
REGION TUES NIGHT AS BLOCKING MID LVL RIDGE HOLDS IN PLACE OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY. CONVECTIVE OPPORTUNITY IS RATHER LIMITED BASED ON FCST
SHEAR/INSTABILITY WITH SREF CPTP SHOWING LOW PROB OF THUNDER IN SRN
EDGE OF CWA. QPF AMOUNTS MAY AVERAGE BETWEEN A QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH OVER ERN THIRD OF CWA...ESPECIALLY IN WISC ZONES AS FRONT SLOWS
FORWARD SPEED. THE INITIAL COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN/DISSIPATE OVER THE
REGION BY WED NIGHT AS NEXT AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO NRN
ROCKIES. SUPERBLEND GIVES POPS THROUGHOUT THE WEEK BUT THE MASS
FIELDS SUGGEST A BRIEF DRY SPELL MAY OCCUR THURSDAY BEFORE MUCH
STRONGER FRONTL BDRY ARRIVES THUR NIGHT.STRONG KINEMATICS FCST WITH
SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM SO IMPACTS WILL PROBABLY OCCUR OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR AND MOMENTUM TRANSFER OVER LAND TO PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT
GUSTS. ECMWF IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN STRENGTHENING A CLOSED MID LVL
LOW OVERHEAD FRIDAY WITH GFS/GEM FAVORING HIGHER MAGNITUDE OF MID
LVL TROF OVER SRN CANADA. BRISK NW MID LVL FLOW THROUGH WEEKEND MAY
PRESENT A CHALLENGE FOR TIMING ANY PERIODS OF PRECIP WITH INITIAL
GUESSTIMATE SUNDAY FOR NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS. TEMPS MAY BRIEFLY
TREND ABOVE CLIMO THURSDAY BETWEEN SYSTEMS OTHERWISE BLO CLIMO MAX
TEMPS EXPECTED THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT  1242 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS LEFT IN WAKE OF RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. FAIRLY
STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA NEXT 24 HRS. THE MAIN DIFFICULTY
IS DETERMINING HOW EXTENSIVE THE STRATUS WILL BE UNDER THE DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SEVERAL OF THE CEILING FCST PRODUCTS FROM HI-
RES MDLS DEPICT RAPID CLEARING TREND LATER TODAY OVER MOST OF CWA
EXCEPT WISC ZONES. HOWEVER VIS SAT IMAGERY NOT IN AGREEMENT SO FAR
WITH A MUCH SLOWER TREND. WILL LEAN WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC
FCST FOR NOW BASED ON FCST MDL SNDGS. LOCAL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ENHANCE LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT NEAR KDLH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  53  44  59 /  10   0  40  40
INL  36  61  45  63 /   0   0  20  30
BRD  38  60  51  66 /   0  10  60  20
HYR  37  61  48  62 /   0   0  40  60
ASX  39  57  45  62 /   0   0  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON











000
FXUS63 KDLH 291759 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FA WAS LOCATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO AT 07Z. THE COLD FRONT HAD EXITED
NW WI. A CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY WAS DRIFTING SWD FROM NORTHERN
MN BEING PUSHED ALONG BY A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MN ZONES AND ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME DRYING IS OCCURRING
BEHIND THE SHOWERS AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN ENOUGH MIXING/DRYING ERODES
CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OVER THE FA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION. HAVE LOWERED WIND SPEEDS OVER INLAND
AREAS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT THAT STRONG AND THERE IS ENOUGH OF
AN INVERSION TO PREVENT FULL MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING COVER THE FA TONIGHT. EXPECTING A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY AS COLUMN RH IS AROUND 50 PERCENT. WAA ALSO BEGINS IN THE
EVENING AND LASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE MIN TEMPS
FROM DROPPING TOO LOW.

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGING MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY AFTERNOON. THE
WAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF RAIN. HAVE GONE WITH A
CONSENSUS OF NO RAIN AND HAVE REMOVED. AN EASTERLY WIND OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE
LAKE...AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ENDING UP OVER NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHLAND BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MANITOBA BY 12Z WED. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
WITH CHANCES HIGHEST OVER EASTERN AREAS.

WE HAVE SOME POPS ON THURSDAY...BUT IF THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...MUCH OF THE DAY COULD END UP BEING DRY OR ONLY HAVE
LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE AS THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
ZERO TO -4C BELOW BY 00Z SAT.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY OR ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP INTO THE FIFTIES BY FRIDAY...THEN TO THE
UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT INTO
SUNDAY AND BE MAINLY IN THE MID FIFTIES TO AROUND SIXTY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT  1242 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS LEFT IN WAKE OF RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. FAIRLY
STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA NEXT 24 HRS. THE MAIN DIFFICULTY
IS DETERMINING HOW EXTENSIVE THE STRATUS WILL BE UNDER THE DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SEVERAL OF THE CEILING FCST PRODUCTS FROM HI-
RES MDLS DEPICT RAPID CLEARING TREND LATER TODAY OVER MOST OF CWA
EXCEPT WISC ZONES. HOWEVER VIS SAT IMAGERY NOT IN AGREEMENT SO FAR
WITH A MUCH SLOWER TREND. WILL LEAN WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC
FCST FOR NOW BASED ON FCST MDL SNDGS. LOCAL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ENHANCE LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT NEAR KDLH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  41  53  45 /   0  10  10  60
INL  51  36  59  46 /   0   0   0  60
BRD  55  39  59  52 /   0   0  10  60
HYR  51  37  62  49 /  30   0   0  50
ASX  49  39  56  46 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...CANNON








000
FXUS63 KDLH 291759 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1259 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...



&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FA WAS LOCATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO AT 07Z. THE COLD FRONT HAD EXITED
NW WI. A CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY WAS DRIFTING SWD FROM NORTHERN
MN BEING PUSHED ALONG BY A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MN ZONES AND ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME DRYING IS OCCURRING
BEHIND THE SHOWERS AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN ENOUGH MIXING/DRYING ERODES
CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OVER THE FA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION. HAVE LOWERED WIND SPEEDS OVER INLAND
AREAS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT THAT STRONG AND THERE IS ENOUGH OF
AN INVERSION TO PREVENT FULL MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING COVER THE FA TONIGHT. EXPECTING A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY AS COLUMN RH IS AROUND 50 PERCENT. WAA ALSO BEGINS IN THE
EVENING AND LASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE MIN TEMPS
FROM DROPPING TOO LOW.

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGING MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY AFTERNOON. THE
WAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF RAIN. HAVE GONE WITH A
CONSENSUS OF NO RAIN AND HAVE REMOVED. AN EASTERLY WIND OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE
LAKE...AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ENDING UP OVER NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHLAND BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MANITOBA BY 12Z WED. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
WITH CHANCES HIGHEST OVER EASTERN AREAS.

WE HAVE SOME POPS ON THURSDAY...BUT IF THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...MUCH OF THE DAY COULD END UP BEING DRY OR ONLY HAVE
LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE AS THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
ZERO TO -4C BELOW BY 00Z SAT.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY OR ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP INTO THE FIFTIES BY FRIDAY...THEN TO THE
UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT INTO
SUNDAY AND BE MAINLY IN THE MID FIFTIES TO AROUND SIXTY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT  1242 PM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

LARGE AREA OF LOW STRATUS LEFT IN WAKE OF RECENT FRONTAL PASSAGE. FAIRLY
STRONG SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA NEXT 24 HRS. THE MAIN DIFFICULTY
IS DETERMINING HOW EXTENSIVE THE STRATUS WILL BE UNDER THE DEVELOPING
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION. SEVERAL OF THE CEILING FCST PRODUCTS FROM HI-
RES MDLS DEPICT RAPID CLEARING TREND LATER TODAY OVER MOST OF CWA
EXCEPT WISC ZONES. HOWEVER VIS SAT IMAGERY NOT IN AGREEMENT SO FAR
WITH A MUCH SLOWER TREND. WILL LEAN WITH A MORE PESSIMISTIC
FCST FOR NOW BASED ON FCST MDL SNDGS. LOCAL UPSLOPE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR MAY ENHANCE LOWER CEILINGS OVERNIGHT NEAR KDLH.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  41  53  45 /   0  10  10  60
INL  51  36  59  46 /   0   0   0  60
BRD  55  39  59  52 /   0   0  10  60
HYR  51  37  62  49 /  30   0   0  50
ASX  49  39  56  46 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...CANNON







000
FXUS63 KDLH 291156
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE RAIN IS ENDING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN ITS WAKE IS
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG THAT WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING. MADE
SOME CHANGES BASED ON THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FA WAS LOCATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO AT 07Z. THE COLD FRONT HAD EXITED
NW WI. A CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY WAS DRIFTING SWD FROM NORTHERN
MN BEING PUSHED ALONG BY A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MN ZONES AND ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME DRYING IS OCCURRING
BEHIND THE SHOWERS AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN ENOUGH MIXING/DRYING ERODES
CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OVER THE FA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION. HAVE LOWERED WIND SPEEDS OVER INLAND
AREAS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT THAT STRONG AND THERE IS ENOUGH OF
AN INVERSION TO PREVENT FULL MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING COVER THE FA TONIGHT. EXPECTING A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY AS COLUMN RH IS AROUND 50 PERCENT. WAA ALSO BEGINS IN THE
EVENING AND LASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE MIN TEMPS
FROM DROPPING TOO LOW.

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGING MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY AFTERNOON. THE
WAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF RAIN. HAVE GONE WITH A
CONSENSUS OF NO RAIN AND HAVE REMOVED. AN EASTERLY WIND OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE
LAKE...AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ENDING UP OVER NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHLAND BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MANITOBA BY 12Z WED. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
WITH CHANCES HIGHEST OVER EASTERN AREAS.

WE HAVE SOME POPS ON THURSDAY...BUT IF THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...MUCH OF THE DAY COULD END UP BEING DRY OR ONLY HAVE
LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE AS THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
ZERO TO -4C BELOW BY 00Z SAT.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY OR ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP INTO THE FIFTIES BY FRIDAY...THEN TO THE
UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT INTO
SUNDAY AND BE MAINLY IN THE MID FIFTIES TO AROUND SIXTY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSAGE OF AN OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE RAP/HRRR SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL
BECOME SCATTERED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS. CONFIDENCE
ON WHEN THAT OCCURS IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AND WE THINK AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR MAY NOT BECOME SCATTERED AT ALL. A STRONG
INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAY PREVENT/DELAY THE BETTER
CONDITIONS TODAY. WE EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS AND SOME FOG TO
REDEVELOP AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD INTO KHIB AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  41  53  45 /  10  10  10  60
INL  51  36  59  46 /   0   0   0  60
BRD  55  39  59  52 /   0   0  10  60
HYR  51  37  62  49 /  20   0   0  50
ASX  49  39  56  46 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 291156
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE RAIN IS ENDING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN ITS WAKE IS
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG THAT WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING. MADE
SOME CHANGES BASED ON THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FA WAS LOCATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO AT 07Z. THE COLD FRONT HAD EXITED
NW WI. A CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY WAS DRIFTING SWD FROM NORTHERN
MN BEING PUSHED ALONG BY A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MN ZONES AND ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME DRYING IS OCCURRING
BEHIND THE SHOWERS AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN ENOUGH MIXING/DRYING ERODES
CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OVER THE FA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION. HAVE LOWERED WIND SPEEDS OVER INLAND
AREAS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT THAT STRONG AND THERE IS ENOUGH OF
AN INVERSION TO PREVENT FULL MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING COVER THE FA TONIGHT. EXPECTING A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY AS COLUMN RH IS AROUND 50 PERCENT. WAA ALSO BEGINS IN THE
EVENING AND LASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE MIN TEMPS
FROM DROPPING TOO LOW.

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGING MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY AFTERNOON. THE
WAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF RAIN. HAVE GONE WITH A
CONSENSUS OF NO RAIN AND HAVE REMOVED. AN EASTERLY WIND OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE
LAKE...AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ENDING UP OVER NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHLAND BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MANITOBA BY 12Z WED. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
WITH CHANCES HIGHEST OVER EASTERN AREAS.

WE HAVE SOME POPS ON THURSDAY...BUT IF THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...MUCH OF THE DAY COULD END UP BEING DRY OR ONLY HAVE
LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE AS THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
ZERO TO -4C BELOW BY 00Z SAT.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY OR ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP INTO THE FIFTIES BY FRIDAY...THEN TO THE
UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT INTO
SUNDAY AND BE MAINLY IN THE MID FIFTIES TO AROUND SIXTY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

IFR/LOW MVFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSAGE OF AN OVERNIGHT COLD FRONT. THESE CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING. CEILINGS WILL
SLOWLY RISE THROUGH THE DAY...AND THE RAP/HRRR SUGGEST CLOUDS WILL
BECOME SCATTERED LATER THIS AFTERNOON FOR MOST AREAS. CONFIDENCE
ON WHEN THAT OCCURS IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AND WE THINK AREAS
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR MAY NOT BECOME SCATTERED AT ALL. A STRONG
INVERSION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND MAY PREVENT/DELAY THE BETTER
CONDITIONS TODAY. WE EXPECT LOWER CEILINGS AND SOME FOG TO
REDEVELOP AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. THESE
CONDITIONS SHOULD SPREAD INTO KHIB AS WELL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  41  53  45 /  10  10  10  60
INL  51  36  59  46 /   0   0   0  60
BRD  55  39  59  52 /   0   0  10  60
HYR  51  37  62  49 /  20   0   0  50
ASX  49  39  56  46 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 291141
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
641 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE RAIN IS ENDING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN ITS WAKE IS
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG THAT WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING. MADE
SOME CHANGES BASED ON THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FA WAS LOCATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO AT 07Z. THE COLD FRONT HAD EXITED
NW WI. A CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY WAS DRIFTING SWD FROM NORTHERN
MN BEING PUSHED ALONG BY A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MN ZONES AND ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME DRYING IS OCCURRING
BEHIND THE SHOWERS AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN ENOUGH MIXING/DRYING ERODES
CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OVER THE FA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION. HAVE LOWERED WIND SPEEDS OVER INLAND
AREAS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT THAT STRONG AND THERE IS ENOUGH OF
AN INVERSION TO PREVENT FULL MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING COVER THE FA TONIGHT. EXPECTING A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY AS COLUMN RH IS AROUND 50 PERCENT. WAA ALSO BEGINS IN THE
EVENING AND LASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE MIN TEMPS
FROM DROPPING TOO LOW.

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGING MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY AFTERNOON. THE
WAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF RAIN. HAVE GONE WITH A
CONSENSUS OF NO RAIN AND HAVE REMOVED. AN EASTERLY WIND OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE
LAKE...AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ENDING UP OVER NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHLAND BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MANITOBA BY 12Z WED. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
WITH CHANCES HIGHEST OVER EASTERN AREAS.

WE HAVE SOME POPS ON THURSDAY...BUT IF THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...MUCH OF THE DAY COULD END UP BEING DRY OR ONLY HAVE
LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE AS THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
ZERO TO -4C BELOW BY 00Z SAT.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY OR ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP INTO THE FIFTIES BY FRIDAY...THEN TO THE
UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT INTO
SUNDAY AND BE MAINLY IN THE MID FIFTIES TO AROUND SIXTY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAS
BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS...AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH END MVFR THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES OF KINL AND KHIB AFTER 20Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
IMPROVEMENT OF THE CEILINGS DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH
MAY LIMIT MIXING AND TRAP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  41  53  45 /  10  10  10  60
INL  51  36  59  46 /   0   0   0  60
BRD  55  39  59  52 /   0   0  10  60
HYR  51  37  62  49 /  20   0   0  50
ASX  49  39  56  46 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 291141
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
641 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE RAIN IS ENDING FASTER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. IN ITS WAKE IS
SOME PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG THAT WILL DIMINISH THIS MORNING. MADE
SOME CHANGES BASED ON THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FA WAS LOCATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO AT 07Z. THE COLD FRONT HAD EXITED
NW WI. A CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY WAS DRIFTING SWD FROM NORTHERN
MN BEING PUSHED ALONG BY A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MN ZONES AND ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME DRYING IS OCCURRING
BEHIND THE SHOWERS AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN ENOUGH MIXING/DRYING ERODES
CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OVER THE FA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION. HAVE LOWERED WIND SPEEDS OVER INLAND
AREAS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT THAT STRONG AND THERE IS ENOUGH OF
AN INVERSION TO PREVENT FULL MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING COVER THE FA TONIGHT. EXPECTING A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY AS COLUMN RH IS AROUND 50 PERCENT. WAA ALSO BEGINS IN THE
EVENING AND LASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE MIN TEMPS
FROM DROPPING TOO LOW.

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGING MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY AFTERNOON. THE
WAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF RAIN. HAVE GONE WITH A
CONSENSUS OF NO RAIN AND HAVE REMOVED. AN EASTERLY WIND OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE
LAKE...AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ENDING UP OVER NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHLAND BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MANITOBA BY 12Z WED. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
WITH CHANCES HIGHEST OVER EASTERN AREAS.

WE HAVE SOME POPS ON THURSDAY...BUT IF THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...MUCH OF THE DAY COULD END UP BEING DRY OR ONLY HAVE
LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE AS THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
ZERO TO -4C BELOW BY 00Z SAT.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY OR ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP INTO THE FIFTIES BY FRIDAY...THEN TO THE
UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT INTO
SUNDAY AND BE MAINLY IN THE MID FIFTIES TO AROUND SIXTY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAS
BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS...AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH END MVFR THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES OF KINL AND KHIB AFTER 20Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
IMPROVEMENT OF THE CEILINGS DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH
MAY LIMIT MIXING AND TRAP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  41  53  45 /  10  10  10  60
INL  51  36  59  46 /   0   0   0  60
BRD  55  39  59  52 /   0   0  10  60
HYR  51  37  62  49 /  20   0   0  50
ASX  49  39  56  46 /  10   0  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 290750
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
250 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

THE FA WAS LOCATED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR
AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER NW ONTARIO AT 07Z. THE COLD FRONT HAD EXITED
NW WI. A CHANNELED AREA OF VORTICITY WAS DRIFTING SWD FROM NORTHERN
MN BEING PUSHED ALONG BY A DIGGING UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS WAS MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MN ZONES AND ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO CONTINUE
TO PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME DRYING IS OCCURRING
BEHIND THE SHOWERS AS THE HIGH BEGINS TO PUSH INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS
WILL LINGER UNTIL MID AFTERNOON WHEN ENOUGH MIXING/DRYING ERODES
CLOUD COVER. NOT EXPECTING ANY SHOWERS OVER THE FA IN THE AFTERNOON
AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION. HAVE LOWERED WIND SPEEDS OVER INLAND
AREAS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT THAT STRONG AND THERE IS ENOUGH OF
AN INVERSION TO PREVENT FULL MIXING.

UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING COVER THE FA TONIGHT. EXPECTING A PARTLY
CLOUDY SKY AS COLUMN RH IS AROUND 50 PERCENT. WAA ALSO BEGINS IN THE
EVENING AND LASTS THROUGH THE NIGHT WHICH WILL KEEP THE MIN TEMPS
FROM DROPPING TOO LOW.

ON TUESDAY...THE RIDGING MOVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR BY AFTERNOON. THE
WAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH THE ONSET OF NEXT ROUND OF RAIN. HAVE GONE WITH A
CONSENSUS OF NO RAIN AND HAVE REMOVED. AN EASTERLY WIND OFF OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE
LAKE...AND UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS/WESTERN CANADA WILL MOVE EAST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ENDING UP OVER NEW ENGLAND BY LATE IN THE
PERIOD. A NORTHWEST FLOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE NORTHLAND BEHIND THIS
UPPER TROUGH. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL IMPACT THE REGION THROUGH THE
EXTENDED PERIOD WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FIRST CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AS A SHORTWAVE
AND SURFACE LOW MOVE NORTHEAST INTO MANITOBA BY 12Z WED. THE CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN AREAS AS
ANOTHER WAVE MOVES THROUGH IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
WITH CHANCES HIGHEST OVER EASTERN AREAS.

WE HAVE SOME POPS ON THURSDAY...BUT IF THE LATEST ECMWF/GFS REMAIN
CONSISTENT...MUCH OF THE DAY COULD END UP BEING DRY OR ONLY HAVE
LIMITED SHOWER COVERAGE AS THE AREA WILL BE BETWEEN SYSTEMS. A
STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE IN THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A CLOSED
UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WILL OCCUR. 850MB TEMPS ARE FORECAST TO DROP TO
ZERO TO -4C BELOW BY 00Z SAT.

A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND MOST AREAS WILL BE
DRY OR ONLY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR RAIN.

HIGHS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES FOR MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BUT WILL DROP INTO THE FIFTIES BY FRIDAY...THEN TO THE
UPPER FORTIES TO LOWER FIFTIES SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL WARM A BIT INTO
SUNDAY AND BE MAINLY IN THE MID FIFTIES TO AROUND SIXTY. THERE WILL
ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAS
BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS...AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH END MVFR THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES OF KINL AND KHIB AFTER 20Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
IMPROVEMENT OF THE CEILINGS DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH
MAY LIMIT MIXING AND TRAP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  41  53  45 /  10  10  10  60
INL  51  36  59  46 /   0   0   0  60
BRD  55  39  59  52 /   0   0  10  60
HYR  51  37  62  49 /  50   0   0  50
ASX  49  39  56  46 /  40   0  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 290533
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 800 PM...SFC ANALYSIS AS WELL AS RADAR/SAT IMAGERY SHOWED A
WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOUTHWEST OVER PINE COUNTY AND INTO THE ST CLOUD AREA.
MANY WEATHER STATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA RECORDED
TEMPERATURE DROPS ON THE ORDER OF 20 DEGREES WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS THE COLD AIR RAPIDLY DUMPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 330 PM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. WE DID SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 AT DULUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 79 SET BACK IN 1956
AND 1898. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 3 PM...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN IRON
RANGE AND INTO NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SOME 30
DEGREES OR SO BELOW WHAT THEY WERE TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE EVENING...ACROSS THE
BRAINERD LAKES...TWIN PORTS AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE LAST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING A HAZARD FOR SMALL
CRAFT ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WINDS SWITCH FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH STORMS THE AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER.

MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY FEEL DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
NORTHEAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH AND WEST. THE GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL...AND MORE SO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKE. THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND AS THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND SE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NORTHLAND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL THEN
LIFT INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...AND THEN MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE
NORTHLAND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AND UNSTABLE NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 330 PM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. WE DID SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 AT DULUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 79 SET BACK IN 1956
AND 1898. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 3 PM...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN IRON
RANGE AND INTO NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SOME 30
DEGREES OR SO BELOW WHAT THEY WERE TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE EVENING...ACROSS THE
BRAINERD LAKES...TWIN PORTS AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE LAST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING A HAZARD FOR SMALL
CRAFT ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WINDS SWITCH FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH STORMS THE AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER.

MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY FEEL DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
NORTHEAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH AND WEST. THE GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL...AND MORE SO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKE. THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND AS THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND SE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NORTHLAND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL THEN
LIFT INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...AND THEN MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE
NORTHLAND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AND UNSTABLE NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAS
BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS...AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH END MVFR THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES OF KINL AND KHIB AFTER 20Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
IMPROVEMENT OF THE CEILINGS DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH
MAY LIMIT MIXING AND TRAP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  53  46  61 /  10   0  60  40
INL  35  59  46  65 /  10   0  60  40
BRD  40  59  53  68 /  10  10  60  30
HYR  36  62  49  63 /  10   0  50  50
ASX  38  56  46  64 /  10   0  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 290533
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 800 PM...SFC ANALYSIS AS WELL AS RADAR/SAT IMAGERY SHOWED A
WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOUTHWEST OVER PINE COUNTY AND INTO THE ST CLOUD AREA.
MANY WEATHER STATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA RECORDED
TEMPERATURE DROPS ON THE ORDER OF 20 DEGREES WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS THE COLD AIR RAPIDLY DUMPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 330 PM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. WE DID SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 AT DULUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 79 SET BACK IN 1956
AND 1898. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 3 PM...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN IRON
RANGE AND INTO NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SOME 30
DEGREES OR SO BELOW WHAT THEY WERE TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE EVENING...ACROSS THE
BRAINERD LAKES...TWIN PORTS AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE LAST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING A HAZARD FOR SMALL
CRAFT ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WINDS SWITCH FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH STORMS THE AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER.

MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY FEEL DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
NORTHEAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH AND WEST. THE GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL...AND MORE SO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKE. THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND AS THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND SE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NORTHLAND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL THEN
LIFT INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...AND THEN MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE
NORTHLAND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AND UNSTABLE NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 330 PM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. WE DID SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 AT DULUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 79 SET BACK IN 1956
AND 1898. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 3 PM...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN IRON
RANGE AND INTO NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SOME 30
DEGREES OR SO BELOW WHAT THEY WERE TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE EVENING...ACROSS THE
BRAINERD LAKES...TWIN PORTS AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE LAST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING A HAZARD FOR SMALL
CRAFT ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WINDS SWITCH FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH STORMS THE AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER.

MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY FEEL DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
NORTHEAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH AND WEST. THE GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL...AND MORE SO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKE. THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND AS THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND SE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NORTHLAND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL THEN
LIFT INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...AND THEN MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE
NORTHLAND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AND UNSTABLE NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 29 2014

A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY TRACKING ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN HAS
BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS...AND RAIN SHOWERS TO THE FORECAST AREA. THE LOW CLOUDS
WILL GRADUALLY LIFT TO HIGH END MVFR THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES OF KINL AND KHIB AFTER 20Z. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
IMPROVEMENT OF THE CEILINGS DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WHICH
MAY LIMIT MIXING AND TRAP THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  53  46  61 /  10   0  60  40
INL  35  59  46  65 /  10   0  60  40
BRD  40  59  53  68 /  10  10  60  30
HYR  36  62  49  63 /  10   0  50  50
ASX  38  56  46  64 /  10   0  30  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 290117
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
817 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 800 PM...SFC ANALYSIS AS WELL AS RADAR/SAT IMAGERY SHOWED A
WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOUTHWEST OVER PINE COUNTY AND INTO THE ST CLOUD AREA.
MANY WEATHER STATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA RECORDED
TEMPERATURE DROPS ON THE ORDER OF 20 DEGREES WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS THE COLD AIR RAPIDLY DUMPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 330 PM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. WE DID SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 AT DULUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 79 SET BACK IN 1956
AND 1898. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 3 PM...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN IRON
RANGE AND INTO NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SOME 30
DEGREES OR SO BELOW WHAT THEY WERE TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE EVENING...ACROSS THE
BRAINERD LAKES...TWIN PORTS AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE LAST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING A HAZARD FOR SMALL
CRAFT ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WINDS SWITCH FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH STORMS THE AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER.

MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY FEEL DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
NORTHEAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH AND WEST. THE GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL...AND MORE SO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKE. THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND AS THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND SE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NORTHLAND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL THEN
LIFT INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...AND THEN MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE
NORTHLAND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AND UNSTABLE NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS...AND A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES GENERALLY AFTER 20Z. LOW CEILINGS AND MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST IN THE KHYR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  49  40  53 /  70  40  10   0
INL  41  52  35  59 /  80  10   0   0
BRD  49  56  40  59 /  70  30   0  10
HYR  46  52  36  62 /  60  60  10   0
ASX  46  49  38  56 /  70  70  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING









000
FXUS63 KDLH 290117
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
817 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 800 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 800 PM...SFC ANALYSIS AS WELL AS RADAR/SAT IMAGERY SHOWED A
WELL DEFINED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN TIP OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...SOUTHWEST OVER PINE COUNTY AND INTO THE ST CLOUD AREA.
MANY WEATHER STATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA RECORDED
TEMPERATURE DROPS ON THE ORDER OF 20 DEGREES WITH THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE THIS EVENING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 40S ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH LIGHT RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED IN THE 60S WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS PUSH EAST ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THROUGH MIDNIGHT. AS THE COLD AIR RAPIDLY DUMPS INTO THE FORECAST
AREA...WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR.

&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 330 PM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. WE DID SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 AT DULUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 79 SET BACK IN 1956
AND 1898. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 3 PM...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN IRON
RANGE AND INTO NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SOME 30
DEGREES OR SO BELOW WHAT THEY WERE TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE EVENING...ACROSS THE
BRAINERD LAKES...TWIN PORTS AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE LAST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING A HAZARD FOR SMALL
CRAFT ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WINDS SWITCH FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH STORMS THE AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER.

MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY FEEL DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
NORTHEAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH AND WEST. THE GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL...AND MORE SO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKE. THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND AS THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND SE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NORTHLAND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL THEN
LIFT INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...AND THEN MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE
NORTHLAND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AND UNSTABLE NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 730 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS...WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR
CEILINGS...AND A PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHERN
TAF SITES GENERALLY AFTER 20Z. LOW CEILINGS AND MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST IN THE KHYR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  49  40  53 /  70  40  10   0
INL  41  52  35  59 /  80  10   0   0
BRD  49  56  40  59 /  70  30   0  10
HYR  46  52  36  62 /  60  60  10   0
ASX  46  49  38  56 /  70  70  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT MONDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 282035
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
335 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 330 PM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. WE DID SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 AT DULUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 79 SET BACK IN 1956
AND 1898. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 3 PM...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN IRON
RANGE AND INTO NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SOME 30
DEGREES OR SO BELOW WHAT THEY WERE TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE EVENING...ACROSS THE
BRAINERD LAKES...TWIN PORTS AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE LAST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING A HAZARD FOR SMALL
CRAFT ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WINDS SWITCH FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH STORMS THE AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER.

MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY FEEL DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
NORTHEAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH AND WEST. THE GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL...AND MORE SO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKE. THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND AS THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND SE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NORTHLAND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL THEN
LIFT INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...AND THEN MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE
NORTHLAND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AND UNSTABLE NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S
TO SSW WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WAS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH OVC MVFR
CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MVFR CIGS WERE AFFECTING THE KINL AREA.

EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. IT WILL LIKELY REACH
THE KBRD AND KDLH AREA BY 2Z...AND THE KHYR AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE
WILL A WIND SWITCH TO THE N AND/OR NE...RAIN SHOWERS...AND
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS. MOST OF THE REGION
WILL TRANSITION FROM VFR TO IFR/MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS FROM
-RA/BR. THE KDLH AREA COULD BE THE MOST AFFECTED TERMINAL DUE TO
THE COOL AND HUMID ENE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH MOST
TERMINALS RETURNING TO MVFR CIGS. THE KHYR WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT
IFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS.

THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF THUNDER FOR THE KHIB/KBRD AND JUST
NORTH OF THE KDLH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  49  40  53 /  70  40  10   0
INL  42  52  35  59 /  80  10   0   0
BRD  49  56  40  59 /  70  30   0  10
HYR  46  52  36  62 /  60  60  10   0
ASX  46  49  38  56 /  70  70  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 282035
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
335 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

AT 330 PM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 55 AT INTERNATIONAL FALLS TO
THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE
CWA. WE DID SET A NEW RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 81 AT DULUTH THIS
AFTERNOON...SURPASSING THE PREVIOUS RECORD OF 79 SET BACK IN 1956
AND 1898. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS OF 3 PM...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN IRON
RANGE AND INTO NORTHERN SAINT LOUIS COUNTY.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS
EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THE FRONT WILL USHER IN
A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY SOME 30
DEGREES OR SO BELOW WHAT THEY WERE TODAY AT MANY LOCATIONS.

FOR TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GIVE WAY TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE
MOST ABUNDANT ACROSS THE NORTH EARLY IN THE EVENING...ACROSS THE
BRAINERD LAKES...TWIN PORTS AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN LATER THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH DURING THE LAST HALF OF
THE NIGHT. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BRING A HAZARD FOR SMALL
CRAFT ON LAKE SUPERIOR...AS WINDS SWITCH FROM SW TO NE. OVERALL IT
LOOKS LIKE A GOOD QUARTER INCH OF RAIN IS LIKELY FOR MANY LOCATIONS
ALTHOUGH WITH STORMS THE AMOUNTS COULD BE LOCALLY HIGHER.

MONDAY WILL DEFINITELY FEEL DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT ACROSS THE
AREA. SOME SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND ESPECIALLY
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SUNSHINE WILL INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS
ON FROM NORTH TO SOUTH...BUT TEMPS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
NORTHEAST AND IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH AND WEST. THE GUSTY
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

BY MONDAY EVENING...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN ONTARIO AND CENTRAL QUEBEC. THERE WILL BE AN AMPLIFIED
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS AND
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA.

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL...AND MORE SO NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO EASTERLY FLOW OFF OF
THE LAKE. THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A WARMING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS TEMPERATURES REBOUND AS THE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS FARTHER EAST AND SE FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NORTHLAND. WHILE
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY WILL LIFT INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT AND BECOME VERTICALLY STACKED WITH
THE SURFACE LOW ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOW WILL THEN
LIFT INTO THE DAKOTAS TUESDAY...AND THEN MANITOBA TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIRMASS
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE
NORTHLAND FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE COOL AND UNSTABLE NW FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AS WELL AS SHORTWAVES THAT WILL LIKELY MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION...WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
AND CHANCES OF SHOWERS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S
TO SSW WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WAS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH OVC MVFR
CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MVFR CIGS WERE AFFECTING THE KINL AREA.

EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. IT WILL LIKELY REACH
THE KBRD AND KDLH AREA BY 2Z...AND THE KHYR AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE
WILL A WIND SWITCH TO THE N AND/OR NE...RAIN SHOWERS...AND
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS. MOST OF THE REGION
WILL TRANSITION FROM VFR TO IFR/MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS FROM
-RA/BR. THE KDLH AREA COULD BE THE MOST AFFECTED TERMINAL DUE TO
THE COOL AND HUMID ENE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH MOST
TERMINALS RETURNING TO MVFR CIGS. THE KHYR WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT
IFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS.

THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF THUNDER FOR THE KHIB/KBRD AND JUST
NORTH OF THE KDLH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  49  40  53 /  70  40  10   0
INL  42  52  35  59 /  80  10   0   0
BRD  49  56  40  59 /  70  30   0  10
HYR  46  52  36  62 /  60  60  10   0
ASX  46  49  38  56 /  70  70  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 281744 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ANOTHER WARM FALL AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE COLD FRONT WAS NOW SITUATED IN THE VICINITY OF INTERNATIONAL
FALLS...WHERE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S IN SPOTS...AND
TEMPS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD AS THE
DAY WEARS ON...BRINGING POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. STILL LOOKING FOR THE
FRONT TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND THERE COULD BE
SOME 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE ARROWHEAD. GIVEN ENOUGH WIND DO
NOT THINK AT THIS POINT THERE WILL BE FROST THOUGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS COVERED THE FA AT 07Z. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND WAS ALLOWING SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM AGAIN. CLOUDS WERE ALSO
STREAMING INTO NW WI AND THE SOUTHERN MN ZONES AROUND UPPER LOW THAT
WAS OPENING INTO A LONG WAVE TROF. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED OVER NW MN WITH CLOUDS FORMING IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT. NO PCPN WAS OCCURRING WITH
THE FRONT AT 07Z AND WHAT WAS FALLING WAS LOCATED IN NW ND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT
TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE FA BY 18Z TODAY. BEST FORCING WILL BE
FOUND WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE POPS OVER KOOCHICHING AND
NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTIES UNTIL 18Z. SFC WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE N
BEHIND THE FRONT AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR COMPARED TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL COVERAGE OF QPF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR POPS/QPF COVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NW WI BY 06Z MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES OVER NE MN BY 12Z.
DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER
SUPPORT...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER NE MN IN THE EVENING AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NW TO SE.
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE MORNING TO REFLECT THE LOCATIONS OF THE BEST
LIFT AS THE TROF PASSES. BY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROF AXIS HAS
REACHED THE EDGE OF THE FA. LINGERED SOME POPS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR EASTERN WI ZONES BEFORE ENDING THE RAIN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND RESULTS IN COLDER MAX
TEMPS WHICH WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO THE SE MON
EVENING WITH A STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING IN OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE MORNING. AN EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
COOL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE LAKE DURING THE DAY TUE. COULD SEE LINGERING DZ AND/OR PATCHY
FOG ON TUE AS WELL. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST TUE AFTERNOON AS
A NARROW/HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING S/W EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUE
EVENING/NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS...AND COMBINE WITH THIS
FAIRLY POTENT LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
MANITOBA. HOWEVER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SWEEP E/NEWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ALLOW THE PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS. COULD SEE UP TO A QUARTER TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. A COOLER AND MORE
ACTIVE/WET PATTERN WILL SET UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S
TO SSW WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WAS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH OVC MVFR
CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MVFR CIGS WERE AFFECTING THE KINL AREA.

EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. IT WILL LIKELY REACH
THE KBRD AND KDLH AREA BY 2Z...AND THE KHYR AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE
WILL A WIND SWITH TO THE N AND/OR NE...RAIN SHOWERS...AND
DETERIORIATING CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS. MOST OF THE REGION
WILL TRANSITION FROM VFR TO IFR/MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS FROM
-RA/BR. THE KDLH AREA COULD BE THE MOST AFFECTED TERMINAL DUE TO
THE COOL AND HUMID ENE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH MOST
TERMINALS RETURNING TO MVFR CIGS. THE KHYR WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT
IFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS.

THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF THUNDER FOR THE KHIB/KBRD AND JUST
NORTH OF THE KDLH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  48  48  41 /  20  80  30  20
INL  64  41  52  36 /  80  80  10   0
BRD  80  48  56  39 /  20  50  20  10
HYR  80  47  53  37 /  10  40  40  10
ASX  82  45  50  39 /  10  60  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 281744 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ANOTHER WARM FALL AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE COLD FRONT WAS NOW SITUATED IN THE VICINITY OF INTERNATIONAL
FALLS...WHERE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S IN SPOTS...AND
TEMPS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD AS THE
DAY WEARS ON...BRINGING POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. STILL LOOKING FOR THE
FRONT TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND THERE COULD BE
SOME 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE ARROWHEAD. GIVEN ENOUGH WIND DO
NOT THINK AT THIS POINT THERE WILL BE FROST THOUGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS COVERED THE FA AT 07Z. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND WAS ALLOWING SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM AGAIN. CLOUDS WERE ALSO
STREAMING INTO NW WI AND THE SOUTHERN MN ZONES AROUND UPPER LOW THAT
WAS OPENING INTO A LONG WAVE TROF. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED OVER NW MN WITH CLOUDS FORMING IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT. NO PCPN WAS OCCURRING WITH
THE FRONT AT 07Z AND WHAT WAS FALLING WAS LOCATED IN NW ND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT
TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE FA BY 18Z TODAY. BEST FORCING WILL BE
FOUND WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE POPS OVER KOOCHICHING AND
NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTIES UNTIL 18Z. SFC WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE N
BEHIND THE FRONT AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR COMPARED TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL COVERAGE OF QPF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR POPS/QPF COVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NW WI BY 06Z MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES OVER NE MN BY 12Z.
DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER
SUPPORT...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER NE MN IN THE EVENING AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NW TO SE.
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE MORNING TO REFLECT THE LOCATIONS OF THE BEST
LIFT AS THE TROF PASSES. BY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROF AXIS HAS
REACHED THE EDGE OF THE FA. LINGERED SOME POPS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR EASTERN WI ZONES BEFORE ENDING THE RAIN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND RESULTS IN COLDER MAX
TEMPS WHICH WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO THE SE MON
EVENING WITH A STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING IN OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE MORNING. AN EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
COOL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE LAKE DURING THE DAY TUE. COULD SEE LINGERING DZ AND/OR PATCHY
FOG ON TUE AS WELL. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST TUE AFTERNOON AS
A NARROW/HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING S/W EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUE
EVENING/NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS...AND COMBINE WITH THIS
FAIRLY POTENT LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
MANITOBA. HOWEVER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SWEEP E/NEWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ALLOW THE PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS. COULD SEE UP TO A QUARTER TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. A COOLER AND MORE
ACTIVE/WET PATTERN WILL SET UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT S
TO SSW WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THERE WAS A COLD
FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH OVC MVFR
CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MVFR CIGS WERE AFFECTING THE KINL AREA.

EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. IT WILL LIKELY REACH
THE KBRD AND KDLH AREA BY 2Z...AND THE KHYR AROUND MIDNIGHT. THERE
WILL A WIND SWITH TO THE N AND/OR NE...RAIN SHOWERS...AND
DETERIORIATING CONDITIONS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. THE WINDS
COULD BE GUSTY WITH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 20 KNOTS. MOST OF THE REGION
WILL TRANSITION FROM VFR TO IFR/MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS FROM
-RA/BR. THE KDLH AREA COULD BE THE MOST AFFECTED TERMINAL DUE TO
THE COOL AND HUMID ENE FLOW OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHICH WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
MONDAY MORNING.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE A BIT LATER MONDAY MORNING WITH MOST
TERMINALS RETURNING TO MVFR CIGS. THE KHYR WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT
IFR DUE TO LINGERING LOW CIGS.

THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF THUNDER FOR THE KHIB/KBRD AND JUST
NORTH OF THE KDLH AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  48  48  41 /  20  80  30  20
INL  64  41  52  36 /  80  80  10   0
BRD  80  48  56  39 /  20  50  20  10
HYR  80  47  53  37 /  10  40  40  10
ASX  82  45  50  39 /  10  60  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI









000
FXUS63 KDLH 281548
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1048 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ANOTHER WARM FALL AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE COLD FRONT WAS NOW SITUATED IN THE VICINITY OF INTERNATIONAL
FALLS...WHERE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S IN SPOTS...AND
TEMPS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD AS THE
DAY WEARS ON...BRINGING POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. STILL LOOKING FOR THE
FRONT TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND THERE COULD BE
SOME 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE ARROWHEAD. GIVEN ENOUGH WIND DO
NOT THINK AT THIS POINT THERE WILL BE FROST THOUGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS COVERED THE FA AT 07Z. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND WAS ALLOWING SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM AGAIN. CLOUDS WERE ALSO
STREAMING INTO NW WI AND THE SOUTHERN MN ZONES AROUND UPPER LOW THAT
WAS OPENING INTO A LONG WAVE TROF. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED OVER NW MN WITH CLOUDS FORMING IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT. NO PCPN WAS OCCURRING WITH
THE FRONT AT 07Z AND WHAT WAS FALLING WAS LOCATED IN NW ND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT
TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE FA BY 18Z TODAY. BEST FORCING WILL BE
FOUND WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE POPS OVER KOOCHICHING AND
NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTIES UNTIL 18Z. SFC WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE N
BEHIND THE FRONT AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR COMPARED TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL COVERAGE OF QPF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR POPS/QPF COVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NW WI BY 06Z MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES OVER NE MN BY 12Z.
DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER
SUPPORT...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER NE MN IN THE EVENING AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NW TO SE.
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE MORNING TO REFLECT THE LOCATIONS OF THE BEST
LIFT AS THE TROF PASSES. BY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROF AXIS HAS
REACHED THE EDGE OF THE FA. LINGERED SOME POPS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR EASTERN WI ZONES BEFORE ENDING THE RAIN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND RESULTS IN COLDER MAX
TEMPS WHICH WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO THE SE MON
EVENING WITH A STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING IN OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE MORNING. AN EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
COOL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE LAKE DURING THE DAY TUE. COULD SEE LINGERING DZ AND/OR PATCHY
FOG ON TUE AS WELL. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST TUE AFTERNOON AS
A NARROW/HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING S/W EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUE
EVENING/NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS...AND COMBINE WITH THIS
FAIRLY POTENT LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
MANITOBA. HOWEVER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SWEEP E/NEWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ALLOW THE PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS. COULD SEE UP TO A QUARTER TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. A COOLER AND MORE
ACTIVE/WET PATTERN WILL SET UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND HIB...BRD AND HYR. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT INL AND DLH. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AT INL...AND TO HIB BRD AND DLH DURING THE EVENING. THE
FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO HYR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE N/NE AND PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AND
LOWER CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT A COUPLE HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE FRONT WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  48  48  41 /  20  80  30  20
INL  64  41  52  36 /  80  80  10   0
BRD  80  48  56  39 /  20  50  20  10
HYR  80  47  53  37 /  10  40  40  10
ASX  82  45  50  39 /  10  60  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 281548
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1048 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1042 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

ANOTHER WARM FALL AFTERNOON IS IN STORE FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE COLD FRONT WAS NOW SITUATED IN THE VICINITY OF INTERNATIONAL
FALLS...WHERE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. TEMPS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WERE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S IN SPOTS...AND
TEMPS SHOULD REACH CLOSE TO 80 FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD AS THE
DAY WEARS ON...BRINGING POST FRONTAL CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GENERATE SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE ADDED THE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFTERNOON GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY AND DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING. STILL LOOKING FOR THE
FRONT TO DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT. SKIES WILL
PARTIALLY CLEAR IN THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST...AND THERE COULD BE
SOME 30S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE ARROWHEAD. GIVEN ENOUGH WIND DO
NOT THINK AT THIS POINT THERE WILL BE FROST THOUGH.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS COVERED THE FA AT 07Z. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND WAS ALLOWING SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM AGAIN. CLOUDS WERE ALSO
STREAMING INTO NW WI AND THE SOUTHERN MN ZONES AROUND UPPER LOW THAT
WAS OPENING INTO A LONG WAVE TROF. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED OVER NW MN WITH CLOUDS FORMING IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT. NO PCPN WAS OCCURRING WITH
THE FRONT AT 07Z AND WHAT WAS FALLING WAS LOCATED IN NW ND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT
TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE FA BY 18Z TODAY. BEST FORCING WILL BE
FOUND WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE POPS OVER KOOCHICHING AND
NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTIES UNTIL 18Z. SFC WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE N
BEHIND THE FRONT AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR COMPARED TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL COVERAGE OF QPF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR POPS/QPF COVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NW WI BY 06Z MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES OVER NE MN BY 12Z.
DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER
SUPPORT...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER NE MN IN THE EVENING AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NW TO SE.
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE MORNING TO REFLECT THE LOCATIONS OF THE BEST
LIFT AS THE TROF PASSES. BY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROF AXIS HAS
REACHED THE EDGE OF THE FA. LINGERED SOME POPS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR EASTERN WI ZONES BEFORE ENDING THE RAIN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND RESULTS IN COLDER MAX
TEMPS WHICH WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO THE SE MON
EVENING WITH A STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING IN OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE MORNING. AN EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
COOL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE LAKE DURING THE DAY TUE. COULD SEE LINGERING DZ AND/OR PATCHY
FOG ON TUE AS WELL. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST TUE AFTERNOON AS
A NARROW/HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING S/W EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUE
EVENING/NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS...AND COMBINE WITH THIS
FAIRLY POTENT LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
MANITOBA. HOWEVER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SWEEP E/NEWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ALLOW THE PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS. COULD SEE UP TO A QUARTER TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. A COOLER AND MORE
ACTIVE/WET PATTERN WILL SET UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND HIB...BRD AND HYR. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT INL AND DLH. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AT INL...AND TO HIB BRD AND DLH DURING THE EVENING. THE
FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO HYR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE N/NE AND PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AND
LOWER CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT A COUPLE HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE FRONT WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  48  48  41 /  20  80  30  20
INL  64  41  52  36 /  80  80  10   0
BRD  80  48  56  39 /  20  50  20  10
HYR  80  47  53  37 /  10  40  40  10
ASX  82  45  50  39 /  10  60  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR LSZ121-142>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT MONDAY
     FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT








000
FXUS63 KDLH 281127 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
627 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS COVERED THE FA AT 07Z. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND WAS ALLOWING SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM AGAIN. CLOUDS WERE ALSO
STREAMING INTO NW WI AND THE SOUTHERN MN ZONES AROUND UPPER LOW THAT
WAS OPENING INTO A LONG WAVE TROF. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED OVER NW MN WITH CLOUDS FORMING IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT. NO PCPN WAS OCCURRING WITH
THE FRONT AT 07Z AND WHAT WAS FALLING WAS LOCATED IN NW ND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT
TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE FA BY 18Z TODAY. BEST FORCING WILL BE
FOUND WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE POPS OVER KOOCHICHING AND
NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTIES UNTIL 18Z. SFC WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE N
BEHIND THE FRONT AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR COMPARED TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL COVERAGE OF QPF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR POPS/QPF COVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NW WI BY 06Z MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES OVER NE MN BY 12Z.
DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER
SUPPORT...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER NE MN IN THE EVENING AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NW TO SE.
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE MORNING TO REFLECT THE LOCATIONS OF THE BEST
LIFT AS THE TROF PASSES. BY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROF AXIS HAS
REACHED THE EDGE OF THE FA. LINGERED SOME POPS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR EASTERN WI ZONES BEFORE ENDING THE RAIN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND RESULTS IN COLDER MAX
TEMPS WHICH WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO THE SE MON
EVENING WITH A STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING IN OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE MORNING. AN EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
COOL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE LAKE DURING THE DAY TUE. COULD SEE LINGERING DZ AND/OR PATCHY
FOG ON TUE AS WELL. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST TUE AFTERNOON AS
A NARROW/HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING S/W EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUE
EVENING/NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS...AND COMBINE WITH THIS
FAIRLY POTENT LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
MANITOBA. HOWEVER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SWEEP E/NEWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ALLOW THE PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS. COULD SEE UP TO A QUARTER TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. A COOLER AND MORE
ACTIVE/WET PATTERN WILL SET UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND HIB...BRD AND HYR. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT INL AND DLH. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AT INL...AND TO HIB BRD AND DLH DURING THE EVENING. THE
FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO HYR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE N/NE AND PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AND
LOWER CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT A COUPLE HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE FRONT WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  48  48  41 /  30  80  30  20
INL  65  41  52  36 /  70  70  10   0
BRD  78  48  56  39 /  20  50  20  10
HYR  77  47  53  37 /  20  40  40  10
ASX  79  45  50  39 /  20  60  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 281127 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
627 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS COVERED THE FA AT 07Z. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND WAS ALLOWING SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM AGAIN. CLOUDS WERE ALSO
STREAMING INTO NW WI AND THE SOUTHERN MN ZONES AROUND UPPER LOW THAT
WAS OPENING INTO A LONG WAVE TROF. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED OVER NW MN WITH CLOUDS FORMING IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT. NO PCPN WAS OCCURRING WITH
THE FRONT AT 07Z AND WHAT WAS FALLING WAS LOCATED IN NW ND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT
TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE FA BY 18Z TODAY. BEST FORCING WILL BE
FOUND WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE POPS OVER KOOCHICHING AND
NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTIES UNTIL 18Z. SFC WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE N
BEHIND THE FRONT AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR COMPARED TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL COVERAGE OF QPF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR POPS/QPF COVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NW WI BY 06Z MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES OVER NE MN BY 12Z.
DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER
SUPPORT...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER NE MN IN THE EVENING AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NW TO SE.
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE MORNING TO REFLECT THE LOCATIONS OF THE BEST
LIFT AS THE TROF PASSES. BY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROF AXIS HAS
REACHED THE EDGE OF THE FA. LINGERED SOME POPS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR EASTERN WI ZONES BEFORE ENDING THE RAIN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND RESULTS IN COLDER MAX
TEMPS WHICH WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO THE SE MON
EVENING WITH A STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING IN OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE MORNING. AN EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
COOL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE LAKE DURING THE DAY TUE. COULD SEE LINGERING DZ AND/OR PATCHY
FOG ON TUE AS WELL. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST TUE AFTERNOON AS
A NARROW/HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING S/W EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUE
EVENING/NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS...AND COMBINE WITH THIS
FAIRLY POTENT LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
MANITOBA. HOWEVER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SWEEP E/NEWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ALLOW THE PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS. COULD SEE UP TO A QUARTER TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. A COOLER AND MORE
ACTIVE/WET PATTERN WILL SET UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 620 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING IN AND AROUND HIB...BRD AND HYR. OTHERWISE
VFR CONDITIONS AT INL AND DLH. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON UNTIL A COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NW LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AT INL...AND TO HIB BRD AND DLH DURING THE EVENING. THE
FRONT SHOULD MAKE IT TO HYR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THE WINDS TO THE N/NE AND PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS AND
LOWER CIGS AT ALL TERMINALS. EXPECT A COUPLE HOURS OF GUSTY WINDS
ALONG THE FRONT WITH IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  48  48  41 /  30  80  30  20
INL  65  41  52  36 /  70  70  10   0
BRD  78  48  56  39 /  20  50  20  10
HYR  77  47  53  37 /  20  40  40  10
ASX  79  45  50  39 /  20  60  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT








000
FXUS63 KDLH 280751
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
251 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

A WEAK SFC RIDGE AXIS COVERED THE FA AT 07Z. A LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WIND WAS ALLOWING SOME PATCHY FOG TO FORM AGAIN. CLOUDS WERE ALSO
STREAMING INTO NW WI AND THE SOUTHERN MN ZONES AROUND UPPER LOW THAT
WAS OPENING INTO A LONG WAVE TROF. MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS
LOCATED OVER NW MN WITH CLOUDS FORMING IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT AND
PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER BEHIND THE FRONT. NO PCPN WAS OCCURRING WITH
THE FRONT AT 07Z AND WHAT WAS FALLING WAS LOCATED IN NW ND AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WELL BEHIND THE FRONT. STILL EXPECTING THE COLD FRONT
TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE FA BY 18Z TODAY. BEST FORCING WILL BE
FOUND WELL BEHIND THE FRONT AND HAVE POPS OVER KOOCHICHING AND
NORTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTIES UNTIL 18Z. SFC WIND WILL SWITCH TO THE N
BEHIND THE FRONT AND USHER IN MUCH COLDER AIR COMPARED TO THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN OVERALL COVERAGE OF QPF IN THE
AFTERNOON AND HAVE SIDED WITH THE ECMWF FOR POPS/QPF COVERAGE.

THE COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH NW WI BY 06Z MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROF MOVES OVER NE MN BY 12Z.
DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAINS BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THE ADDITIONAL UPPER
SUPPORT...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER NE MN IN THE EVENING AND THEN
TRANSITIONING TO AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR OVERNIGHT.

ON MONDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROF CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE
REST OF THE FA. AT THE SFC...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM NW TO SE.
HAVE SOME POPS IN THE MORNING TO REFLECT THE LOCATIONS OF THE BEST
LIFT AS THE TROF PASSES. BY AFTERNOON...THE UPPER TROF AXIS HAS
REACHED THE EDGE OF THE FA. LINGERED SOME POPS EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR EASTERN WI ZONES BEFORE ENDING THE RAIN BY
LATE AFTERNOON. MUCH COLDER AIR ARRIVES AND RESULTS IN COLDER MAX
TEMPS WHICH WILL BE BELOW NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPPER TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL BE EXITING TO THE SE MON
EVENING WITH A STRONG SFC HIGH BUILDING IN OVER CENTRAL ONTARIO/LAKE
SUPERIOR TUE MORNING. AN EAST WIND OFF THE LAKE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
COOL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF THE LAKE DURING THE DAY TUE. COULD SEE LINGERING DZ AND/OR PATCHY
FOG ON TUE AS WELL. THE SFC HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST TUE AFTERNOON AS
A NARROW/HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN OVER THE REGION AHEAD
OF THE NEXT INCOMING S/W EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TUE
EVENING/NIGHT. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM WILL DRAW UP A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR MASS...AND COMBINE WITH THIS
FAIRLY POTENT LOW TO PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TUE NIGHT
THROUGH WED NIGHT. THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN WELL TO THE WEST OVER THE DAKOTAS AND EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO
MANITOBA. HOWEVER...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SWEEP E/NEWD
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND ALLOW THE PRECIP TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A WEAK SFC TROUGH AXIS. COULD SEE UP TO A QUARTER TO A
THIRD OF AN INCH OF PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM. A COOLER AND MORE
ACTIVE/WET PATTERN WILL SET UP GOING INTO THE WEEKEND WITH
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR RAIN AND TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEG BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING...BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 SM. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO PASS OVER
KINL AROUND 18Z...MOVING INTO THE KHIB AREA AROUND 00Z...AND
REACHING KDLH/KBRD BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  76  48  48  41 /  30  80  30  20
INL  65  41  52  36 /  70  70  10   0
BRD  78  48  56  39 /  20  50  20  10
HYR  77  47  53  37 /  20  40  40  10
ASX  79  45  50  39 /  20  60  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 280523 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1222 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

AT 315PM/2015Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NE
UNITED STATES AND SE CANADA. A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDED TO THE SW THROUGH FAR NW
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THERE WAS A SUBTLE CUT OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER FAR NW IOWA. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...10 TO 15 MPH S TO SSW WINDS...AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

TONIGHT...RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND
WILL HELP BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE 50S.

SUNDAY...THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE
COLD FRONT IN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE HIGHS REACH THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES, THE
NORTHERN AND NW FORECAST AREA WILL BE COOLER IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. ALSO...THOSE AREAS WILL REACH THEIR HIGHS EARLIER THAN USUAL
AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE
AND LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY
EVENING...AND THEN ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVEMENT AND QPF AMOUNTS...BUT OVERALL THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A WET NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM ONTARIO ON MONDAY...BRINGING
A DRYING TREND FOR THE CWA. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES BY MONDAY NIGHT
WE COULD SEE SOME FROST ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ARROWHEAD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS IT GETS CLOSER. THE
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. A MAJOR LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND CANADA BY MIDWEEK.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE IN
PRONOUNCED COOLER NW FLOW BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING...BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 SM. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO PASS OVER
KINL AROUND 18Z...MOVING INTO THE KHIB AREA AROUND 00Z...AND
REACHING KDLH/KBRD BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  49  40  54 /  70  50  20  10
INL  43  54  37  60 /  70  20  10  10
BRD  51  58  44  63 /  40  20  10  20
HYR  48  56  42  63 /  30  30  10  10
ASX  47  51  41  58 /  50  50  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING









000
FXUS63 KDLH 280523 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1222 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

AT 315PM/2015Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NE
UNITED STATES AND SE CANADA. A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDED TO THE SW THROUGH FAR NW
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THERE WAS A SUBTLE CUT OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER FAR NW IOWA. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...10 TO 15 MPH S TO SSW WINDS...AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

TONIGHT...RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND
WILL HELP BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE 50S.

SUNDAY...THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE
COLD FRONT IN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE HIGHS REACH THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES, THE
NORTHERN AND NW FORECAST AREA WILL BE COOLER IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. ALSO...THOSE AREAS WILL REACH THEIR HIGHS EARLIER THAN USUAL
AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE
AND LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY
EVENING...AND THEN ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVEMENT AND QPF AMOUNTS...BUT OVERALL THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A WET NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM ONTARIO ON MONDAY...BRINGING
A DRYING TREND FOR THE CWA. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES BY MONDAY NIGHT
WE COULD SEE SOME FROST ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ARROWHEAD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS IT GETS CLOSER. THE
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. A MAJOR LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND CANADA BY MIDWEEK.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE IN
PRONOUNCED COOLER NW FLOW BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING...BUT VSBYS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 SM. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO PASS OVER
KINL AROUND 18Z...MOVING INTO THE KHIB AREA AROUND 00Z...AND
REACHING KDLH/KBRD BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  49  40  54 /  70  50  20  10
INL  43  54  37  60 /  70  20  10  10
BRD  51  58  44  63 /  40  20  10  20
HYR  48  56  42  63 /  30  30  10  10
ASX  47  51  41  58 /  50  50  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING










000
FXUS63 KDLH 280520 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

AT 315PM/2015Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NE
UNITED STATES AND SE CANADA. A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDED TO THE SW THROUGH FAR NW
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THERE WAS A SUBTLE CUT OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER FAR NW IOWA. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...10 TO 15 MPH S TO SSW WINDS...AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

TONIGHT...RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND
WILL HELP BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE 50S.

SUNDAY...THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE
COLD FRONT IN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE HIGHS REACH THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES, THE
NORTHERN AND NW FORECAST AREA WILL BE COOLER IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. ALSO...THOSE AREAS WILL REACH THEIR HIGHS EARLIER THAN USUAL
AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE
AND LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY
EVENING...AND THEN ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVEMENT AND QPF AMOUNTS...BUT OVERALL THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A WET NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM ONTARIO ON MONDAY...BRINGING
A DRYING TREND FOR THE CWA. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES BY MONDAY NIGHT
WE COULD SEE SOME FROST ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ARROWHEAD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS IT GETS CLOSER. THE
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. A MAJOR LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND CANADA BY MIDWEEK.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE IN
PRONOUNCED COOLER NW FLOW BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 SM. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO PASS OVER
KINL AROUND 18Z...MOVING INTO THE KHIB AREA AROUND 00Z...AND
REACHING KDLH/KBRD BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  49  40  54 /  70  50  20  10
INL  43  54  37  60 /  70  20  10  10
BRD  51  58  44  63 /  40  20  10  20
HYR  48  56  42  63 /  30  30  10  10
ASX  47  51  41  58 /  50  50  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 280520 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

AT 315PM/2015Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NE
UNITED STATES AND SE CANADA. A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDED TO THE SW THROUGH FAR NW
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THERE WAS A SUBTLE CUT OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER FAR NW IOWA. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...10 TO 15 MPH S TO SSW WINDS...AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

TONIGHT...RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND
WILL HELP BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE 50S.

SUNDAY...THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE
COLD FRONT IN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE HIGHS REACH THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES, THE
NORTHERN AND NW FORECAST AREA WILL BE COOLER IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. ALSO...THOSE AREAS WILL REACH THEIR HIGHS EARLIER THAN USUAL
AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE
AND LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY
EVENING...AND THEN ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVEMENT AND QPF AMOUNTS...BUT OVERALL THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A WET NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM ONTARIO ON MONDAY...BRINGING
A DRYING TREND FOR THE CWA. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES BY MONDAY NIGHT
WE COULD SEE SOME FROST ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ARROWHEAD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS IT GETS CLOSER. THE
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. A MAJOR LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND CANADA BY MIDWEEK.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE IN
PRONOUNCED COOLER NW FLOW BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM CDT SUN SEP 28 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
EARLY MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3 SM. A STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...SWEEPING OVER THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. THE
FRONT WILL BRING AN ABRUPT WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST...LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN. AT THIS TIME...EXPECTING THE FRONT TO PASS OVER
KINL AROUND 18Z...MOVING INTO THE KHIB AREA AROUND 00Z...AND
REACHING KDLH/KBRD BETWEEN 03-06Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  49  40  54 /  70  50  20  10
INL  43  54  37  60 /  70  20  10  10
BRD  51  58  44  63 /  40  20  10  20
HYR  48  56  42  63 /  30  30  10  10
ASX  47  51  41  58 /  50  50  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 280058
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
758 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

AT 315PM/2015Z...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER THE NE
UNITED STATES AND SE CANADA. A SURFACE LOW WAS OVER SOUTHERN
HUDSON BAY. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDED TO THE SW THROUGH FAR NW
ONTARIO INTO SOUTHERN MANITOBA. THERE WAS A SUBTLE CUT OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER FAR NW IOWA. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...10 TO 15 MPH S TO SSW WINDS...AND VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

TONIGHT...RELATIVELY HIGH DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHLAND
WILL HELP BOLSTER THE OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES DESPITE THE CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
MIDDLE 50S.

SUNDAY...THE WARM WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER, THE
COLD FRONT IN CANADA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH NORTHERN
MINNESOTA DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WHILE MUCH OF THE
REGION WILL SEE HIGHS REACH THE MIDDLE 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES, THE
NORTHERN AND NW FORECAST AREA WILL BE COOLER IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. ALSO...THOSE AREAS WILL REACH THEIR HIGHS EARLIER THAN USUAL
AS COOLER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THE MIDDLE
AND LATE AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES OF SHOWERS FROM THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY SUNDAY
EVENING...AND THEN ADVANCE SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA
SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE
TIMING OF THE FRONT MOVEMENT AND QPF AMOUNTS...BUT OVERALL THE TREND
WILL BE FOR A WET NIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH IN FROM ONTARIO ON MONDAY...BRINGING
A DRYING TREND FOR THE CWA. WITH THE CLEARING SKIES BY MONDAY NIGHT
WE COULD SEE SOME FROST ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE
ARROWHEAD. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY AS IT GETS CLOSER. THE
FOCUS WILL THEN SHIFT TO MORE UNSETTLED WEATHER DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. A MAJOR LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CARVE ITSELF OUT
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AND CANADA BY MIDWEEK.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FAIRLY QUICKLY BY WEDNESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND
SOME THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND...BUT WE WILL BE IN
PRONOUNCED COOLER NW FLOW BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 715 PM CDT SAT SEP 27 2014

MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME PATCHY LIGHT FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING...BUT CIGS SHOULD REMAIN ABOVE 3SM. A STRONG COLD FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTH OUT OF CANADA SUNDAY AFTERNOON...SWEEPING OVER
THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING. THE FRONT WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND
RAIN TO KINL AROUND 18Z...MOVING INTO THE KHIB AREA AFTER
00Z...AND REACHING KDLH/KBRD AROUND 06Z MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  47  49 /   0  10  70  50
INL  55  66  43  54 /   0  60  70  20
BRD  57  80  51  58 /   0  10  40  20
HYR  53  83  48  56 /  10  10  30  30
ASX  49  81  47  51 /   0  10  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING








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