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000
FXUS63 KDLH 271154 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
654 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
EJECTING OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.  A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL
EXTEND BACK ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE
AND DEEP MIXING EXPECTED TODAY HIGHS SHOULD GET UP CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT TO ALSO BE WARM...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETTING UP OVER THE AREA AND GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.  LOW SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.  LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY A WAVE OF THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH A SURGE
OF SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THERE WILL BE MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS POTENTIAL.  THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MY
SOUTHERNMOST MINNESOTA COUNTIES TO RISE TO NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG PUSH OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH NWD INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LATE THUR/THUR NIGHT WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO BECOME PRIMED FOR PLENTY OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND 1 INCH...WITH LOCALLY 2 TO 3 INCH REPORTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LATE
THURSDAY OVER N-CENTRAL MN AS THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH A DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LLJ AND STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STABILIZE LATE THUR NIGHT
AND FRI MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN NW WI
ALONG THE TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH
AND SE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF AND SKIES
CLEARING OUT. BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR LATE
MAY WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. SUNDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING WITH LOWER 30S POSSIBLE. ADDED THE MENTION
OF FROST TO THE FORECAST. WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ENTRENCHED IN THE
GROWING SEASON...A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EWD A SLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ADVECTING IN
OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE INTO THE 50S AND
60S FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR
LOWS. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST ALLOWING RAIN TO END OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE TAIL END OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY HAVE AN HOUR OR SO OF
FOG DEVELOP ALONG THIS CLEARING LINE THIS MORNING BEFORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS SET IN BY 15Z. WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOP
TODAY WITH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CUMULUS AND A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY 10 TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 01-02Z THIS EVENING CONDITIONS CLEAR OFF AND
WINDS SUBSIDE. NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO ARRIVE AROUND BRD CLOSE TO
12Z THURSDAY...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND HYR. A NE WIND OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR COULD DROP CIGS AND VSBYS AT DLH AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE AMT OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  49  65  49 /  30  10  20  70
INL  79  48  72  49 /  20  40  80  70
BRD  82  56  77  59 /  10  20  50  70
HYR  80  51  80  60 /  40  10  20  70
ASX  82  44  69  53 /  60  10  20  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT








000
FXUS63 KDLH 271154 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
654 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
EJECTING OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.  A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL
EXTEND BACK ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE
AND DEEP MIXING EXPECTED TODAY HIGHS SHOULD GET UP CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT TO ALSO BE WARM...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETTING UP OVER THE AREA AND GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.  LOW SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.  LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY A WAVE OF THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH A SURGE
OF SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THERE WILL BE MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS POTENTIAL.  THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MY
SOUTHERNMOST MINNESOTA COUNTIES TO RISE TO NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG PUSH OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH NWD INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LATE THUR/THUR NIGHT WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO BECOME PRIMED FOR PLENTY OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND 1 INCH...WITH LOCALLY 2 TO 3 INCH REPORTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LATE
THURSDAY OVER N-CENTRAL MN AS THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH A DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LLJ AND STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STABILIZE LATE THUR NIGHT
AND FRI MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN NW WI
ALONG THE TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH
AND SE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF AND SKIES
CLEARING OUT. BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR LATE
MAY WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. SUNDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING WITH LOWER 30S POSSIBLE. ADDED THE MENTION
OF FROST TO THE FORECAST. WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ENTRENCHED IN THE
GROWING SEASON...A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EWD A SLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ADVECTING IN
OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE INTO THE 50S AND
60S FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR
LOWS. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

EXITING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE EAST ALLOWING RAIN TO END OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN WITH THE TAIL END OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. WILL LIKELY HAVE AN HOUR OR SO OF
FOG DEVELOP ALONG THIS CLEARING LINE THIS MORNING BEFORE
WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS SET IN BY 15Z. WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOP
TODAY WITH LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE CUMULUS AND A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS. NW WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY 10 TO 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. AFTER 01-02Z THIS EVENING CONDITIONS CLEAR OFF AND
WINDS SUBSIDE. NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO ARRIVE AROUND BRD CLOSE TO
12Z THURSDAY...WITH PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AROUND HYR. A NE WIND OFF
LAKE SUPERIOR COULD DROP CIGS AND VSBYS AT DLH AFTER 06Z TONIGHT
AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO THE AMT OF DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  49  65  49 /  30  10  20  70
INL  79  48  72  49 /  20  40  80  70
BRD  82  56  77  59 /  10  20  50  70
HYR  80  51  80  60 /  40  10  20  70
ASX  82  44  69  53 /  60  10  20  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 270820
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
EJECTING OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.  A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL
EXTEND BACK ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE
AND DEEP MIXING EXPECTED TODAY HIGHS SHOULD GET UP CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT TO ALSO BE WARM...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETTING UP OVER THE AREA AND GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.  LOW SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.  LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY A WAVE OF THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH A SURGE
OF SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THERE WILL BE MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS POTENTIAL.  THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MY
SOUTHERNMOST MINNESOTA COUNTIES TO RISE TO NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG PUSH OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH NWD INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LATE THUR/THUR NIGHT WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO BECOME PRIMED FOR PLENTY OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND 1 INCH...WITH LOCALLY 2 TO 3 INCH REPORTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LATE
THURSDAY OVER N-CENTRAL MN AS THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH A DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LLJ AND STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STABILIZE LATE THUR NIGHT
AND FRI MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN NW WI
ALONG THE TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH
AND SE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF AND SKIES
CLEARING OUT. BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR LATE
MAY WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. SUNDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING WITH LOWER 30S POSSIBLE. ADDED THE MENTION
OF FROST TO THE FORECAST. WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ENTRENCHED IN THE
GROWING SEASON...A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EWD A SLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ADVECTING IN
OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE INTO THE 50S AND
60S FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR
LOWS. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHIELD OF CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING. VRF CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT... BUT THE FORECAST WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC
FURTHER EAST IN WISCONSIN... AS KHYR WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/LIFR
UNTIL 12Z DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL DENSE FOG. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING A CHANCE OF BRIEF FOG AND
LOWERING VIS AT KDLH/KHIB UNTIL 12Z. ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR AFTER 18Z TOMORROW... BUT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST... AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  49  65  49 /  30  10  20  70
INL  79  48  72  49 /  20  40  80  70
BRD  82  56  77  59 /  10  20  50  70
HYR  80  51  80  60 /  40  10  20  70
ASX  82  44  69  53 /  60  10  20  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MCLOVIN










000
FXUS63 KDLH 270820
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UPPER MICHIGAN WITH A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS PRODUCED AN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.  THIS SYSTEM IS SLOWLY
EJECTING OFF TO THE EAST...LEAVING THE CWA WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.  A WEAK TROUGH AXIS WILL
EXTEND BACK ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  WITH THE STRONG SUNSHINE
AND DEEP MIXING EXPECTED TODAY HIGHS SHOULD GET UP CLOSE TO 80
DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. TONIGHT TO ALSO BE WARM...WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION SETTING UP OVER THE AREA AND GRADUALLY INCREASING CLOUD
COVER.  LOW SHOULD ONLY FALL INTO THE MID 40S TO MID 50S.  LATE
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY A WAVE OF THETA-E ADVECTION SHOULD PUSH A SURGE
OF SHOWER AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THERE WILL BE MORE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME INSTABILITY INCREASES THIS POTENTIAL.  THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOW
TO MID 70S ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MY
SOUTHERNMOST MINNESOTA COUNTIES TO RISE TO NEAR 80 ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS. A STRONG PUSH OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH NWD INTO
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM LATE THUR/THUR NIGHT WILL ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO BECOME PRIMED FOR PLENTY OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED STORMS
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COULD SEE WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND 1 INCH...WITH LOCALLY 2 TO 3 INCH REPORTS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE LATE
THURSDAY OVER N-CENTRAL MN AS THE WARM/UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL STILL
BE IN PLACE...COUPLED WITH A DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LLJ AND STRONG
MOISTURE ADVECTION. CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STABILIZE LATE THUR NIGHT
AND FRI MORNING BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS IN NW WI
ALONG THE TRAILING SFC BOUNDARY WITH THE UNSTABLE AIR TO THE SOUTH
AND SE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING OFF AND SKIES
CLEARING OUT. BOTH SAT AND SUN MORNING WILL BE QUITE COLD FOR LATE
MAY WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE 30S AND LOWER 40S. SUNDAY APPEARS
TO BE THE COLDEST MORNING WITH LOWER 30S POSSIBLE. ADDED THE MENTION
OF FROST TO THE FORECAST. WITH MUCH OF THE REGION ENTRENCHED IN THE
GROWING SEASON...A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED. AS THE HIGH MOVES
EWD A SLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP AND USHER IN ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS ADVECTING IN
OVER THE N-CENTRAL CONUS. THE ACTIVE PATTERN WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS A COLD/STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
DRAPED ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT MILD LATE THIS WEEK WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY
IN THE 60S AND 70S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S AND 50S.
HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE TEMPERATURES WILL DIVE INTO THE 50S AND
60S FOR HIGHS THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO THE 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR
LOWS. TEMPS WILL RECOVER BACK INTO THE 60S AND 70S BY THE EARLY AND
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHIELD OF CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING. VRF CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT... BUT THE FORECAST WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC
FURTHER EAST IN WISCONSIN... AS KHYR WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/LIFR
UNTIL 12Z DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL DENSE FOG. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING A CHANCE OF BRIEF FOG AND
LOWERING VIS AT KDLH/KHIB UNTIL 12Z. ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR AFTER 18Z TOMORROW... BUT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST... AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  49  65  49 /  30  10  20  70
INL  79  48  72  49 /  20  40  80  70
BRD  82  56  77  59 /  10  20  50  70
HYR  80  51  80  60 /  40  10  20  70
ASX  82  44  69  53 /  60  10  20  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...MCLOVIN









000
FXUS63 KDLH 270558
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1258 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

COMPACT VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF RATHER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS MOST OF OUR NW WISCONSIN ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTHEAST..WITH SOME AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH
BY THE TIME THE RAIN WINDS DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALONG THE NW EDGE OF THE PRECIP AREA..LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
DIAGNOSTIC DATA SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING THE RAIN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH
SHORE THIS EVENING..SO WE HAVE REDUCED POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH A
VERY TIGHT/STRONG NW TO SE POP GRADIENT ACROSS BURNETT AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES.

OVER THE FAR NW CWA..COMBINATION OF NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW BRIEF/WEAK TSTORMS
JUST TO THE WEST OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY. HOWEVER..THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND SHOULD MOSTLY /AND PERHAPS ENTIRELY/ STAY WEST OF THE DLH CWA.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE COME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH OR SO GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER..THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
BE LIMITED. IT WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER HAZY IN MANY AREAS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE PLUME OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA CLEARLY EVIDENT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA CONTINUES TO ADVECT ESEWD IN AMBIENT FLOW.

AVIATION DISCUSSION IS ALSO UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WESTERN EXTENT OF MAIN PRECIPITATION SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS DEPICT THE LOW CENTER
IS CURRENTLY RESIDING NEAR KLSE...TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ACROSS SE MN. AS THE LOW MIGRATES INTO
CENTRAL WIS THIS EVENING...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN REACHES AS FAR
WEST AS THE I35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY NUDGING IN
THE TWIN PORTS/TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.

PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND
AN INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP MIXING IN
EXCESS OF 8000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR FALLING DEW
PTS/RH VALUES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT GENERAL BROAD
BRUSH CH POPS FOR SCT THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
RAPIDLY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
RAIN SHOWER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE STATE.  MODELS HAVE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL COVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHIELD OF CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING. VRF CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT... BUT THE FORECAST WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC
FURTHER EAST IN WISCONSIN... AS KHYR WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/LIFR
UNTIL 12Z DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL DENSE FOG. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING A CHANCE OF BRIEF FOG AND
LOWERING VIS AT KDLH/KHIB UNTIL 12Z. ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR AFTER 18Z TOMORROW... BUT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST... AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  66  50  65 /  20  40  60  50
INL  51  70  49  62 /  20  70  60  20
BRD  57  78  58  68 /  10  50  70  40
HYR  52  80  59  70 /  10  20  60  70
ASX  46  69  52  68 /  10  30  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MCLOVIN
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 270558
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1258 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

COMPACT VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF RATHER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS MOST OF OUR NW WISCONSIN ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTHEAST..WITH SOME AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH
BY THE TIME THE RAIN WINDS DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALONG THE NW EDGE OF THE PRECIP AREA..LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
DIAGNOSTIC DATA SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING THE RAIN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH
SHORE THIS EVENING..SO WE HAVE REDUCED POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH A
VERY TIGHT/STRONG NW TO SE POP GRADIENT ACROSS BURNETT AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES.

OVER THE FAR NW CWA..COMBINATION OF NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW BRIEF/WEAK TSTORMS
JUST TO THE WEST OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY. HOWEVER..THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND SHOULD MOSTLY /AND PERHAPS ENTIRELY/ STAY WEST OF THE DLH CWA.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE COME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH OR SO GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER..THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
BE LIMITED. IT WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER HAZY IN MANY AREAS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE PLUME OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA CLEARLY EVIDENT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA CONTINUES TO ADVECT ESEWD IN AMBIENT FLOW.

AVIATION DISCUSSION IS ALSO UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WESTERN EXTENT OF MAIN PRECIPITATION SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS DEPICT THE LOW CENTER
IS CURRENTLY RESIDING NEAR KLSE...TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ACROSS SE MN. AS THE LOW MIGRATES INTO
CENTRAL WIS THIS EVENING...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN REACHES AS FAR
WEST AS THE I35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY NUDGING IN
THE TWIN PORTS/TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.

PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND
AN INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP MIXING IN
EXCESS OF 8000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR FALLING DEW
PTS/RH VALUES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT GENERAL BROAD
BRUSH CH POPS FOR SCT THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
RAPIDLY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
RAIN SHOWER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE STATE.  MODELS HAVE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL COVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHIELD OF CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING. VRF CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT... BUT THE FORECAST WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC
FURTHER EAST IN WISCONSIN... AS KHYR WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/LIFR
UNTIL 12Z DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL DENSE FOG. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING A CHANCE OF BRIEF FOG AND
LOWERING VIS AT KDLH/KHIB UNTIL 12Z. ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR AFTER 18Z TOMORROW... BUT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST... AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  66  50  65 /  20  40  60  50
INL  51  70  49  62 /  20  70  60  20
BRD  57  78  58  68 /  10  50  70  40
HYR  52  80  59  70 /  10  20  60  70
ASX  46  69  52  68 /  10  30  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MCLOVIN
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...STEWART







000
FXUS63 KDLH 270558
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1258 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

COMPACT VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF RATHER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS MOST OF OUR NW WISCONSIN ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTHEAST..WITH SOME AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH
BY THE TIME THE RAIN WINDS DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALONG THE NW EDGE OF THE PRECIP AREA..LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
DIAGNOSTIC DATA SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING THE RAIN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH
SHORE THIS EVENING..SO WE HAVE REDUCED POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH A
VERY TIGHT/STRONG NW TO SE POP GRADIENT ACROSS BURNETT AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES.

OVER THE FAR NW CWA..COMBINATION OF NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW BRIEF/WEAK TSTORMS
JUST TO THE WEST OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY. HOWEVER..THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND SHOULD MOSTLY /AND PERHAPS ENTIRELY/ STAY WEST OF THE DLH CWA.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE COME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH OR SO GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER..THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
BE LIMITED. IT WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER HAZY IN MANY AREAS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE PLUME OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA CLEARLY EVIDENT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA CONTINUES TO ADVECT ESEWD IN AMBIENT FLOW.

AVIATION DISCUSSION IS ALSO UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WESTERN EXTENT OF MAIN PRECIPITATION SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS DEPICT THE LOW CENTER
IS CURRENTLY RESIDING NEAR KLSE...TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ACROSS SE MN. AS THE LOW MIGRATES INTO
CENTRAL WIS THIS EVENING...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN REACHES AS FAR
WEST AS THE I35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY NUDGING IN
THE TWIN PORTS/TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.

PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND
AN INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP MIXING IN
EXCESS OF 8000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR FALLING DEW
PTS/RH VALUES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT GENERAL BROAD
BRUSH CH POPS FOR SCT THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
RAPIDLY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
RAIN SHOWER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE STATE.  MODELS HAVE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL COVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHIELD OF CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING. VRF CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT... BUT THE FORECAST WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC
FURTHER EAST IN WISCONSIN... AS KHYR WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/LIFR
UNTIL 12Z DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL DENSE FOG. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING A CHANCE OF BRIEF FOG AND
LOWERING VIS AT KDLH/KHIB UNTIL 12Z. ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR AFTER 18Z TOMORROW... BUT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST... AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  66  50  65 /  20  40  60  50
INL  51  70  49  62 /  20  70  60  20
BRD  57  78  58  68 /  10  50  70  40
HYR  52  80  59  70 /  10  20  60  70
ASX  46  69  52  68 /  10  30  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MCLOVIN
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...STEWART







000
FXUS63 KDLH 270558
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1258 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

COMPACT VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF RATHER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS MOST OF OUR NW WISCONSIN ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTHEAST..WITH SOME AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH
BY THE TIME THE RAIN WINDS DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALONG THE NW EDGE OF THE PRECIP AREA..LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
DIAGNOSTIC DATA SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING THE RAIN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH
SHORE THIS EVENING..SO WE HAVE REDUCED POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH A
VERY TIGHT/STRONG NW TO SE POP GRADIENT ACROSS BURNETT AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES.

OVER THE FAR NW CWA..COMBINATION OF NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW BRIEF/WEAK TSTORMS
JUST TO THE WEST OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY. HOWEVER..THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND SHOULD MOSTLY /AND PERHAPS ENTIRELY/ STAY WEST OF THE DLH CWA.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE COME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH OR SO GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER..THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
BE LIMITED. IT WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER HAZY IN MANY AREAS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE PLUME OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA CLEARLY EVIDENT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA CONTINUES TO ADVECT ESEWD IN AMBIENT FLOW.

AVIATION DISCUSSION IS ALSO UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WESTERN EXTENT OF MAIN PRECIPITATION SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS DEPICT THE LOW CENTER
IS CURRENTLY RESIDING NEAR KLSE...TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ACROSS SE MN. AS THE LOW MIGRATES INTO
CENTRAL WIS THIS EVENING...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN REACHES AS FAR
WEST AS THE I35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY NUDGING IN
THE TWIN PORTS/TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.

PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND
AN INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP MIXING IN
EXCESS OF 8000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR FALLING DEW
PTS/RH VALUES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT GENERAL BROAD
BRUSH CH POPS FOR SCT THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
RAPIDLY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
RAIN SHOWER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE STATE.  MODELS HAVE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL COVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT WED MAY 27 2015

A SHIELD OF CLOUDS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
CENTERED IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN WILL SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE EAST
THIS EVENING. VRF CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED OVER NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT... BUT THE FORECAST WILL BE MORE PESSIMISTIC
FURTHER EAST IN WISCONSIN... AS KHYR WILL BOUNCE BETWEEN IFR/LIFR
UNTIL 12Z DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND OCCASIONAL DENSE FOG. LIGHT
WINDS TONIGHT AND WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING A CHANCE OF BRIEF FOG AND
LOWERING VIS AT KDLH/KHIB UNTIL 12Z. ALL SITES SHOULD RETURN TO
PREVAILING VFR AFTER 18Z TOMORROW... BUT WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY
OUT OF THE NORTHEAST... AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.



&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  66  50  65 /  20  40  60  50
INL  51  70  49  62 /  20  70  60  20
BRD  57  78  58  68 /  10  50  70  40
HYR  52  80  59  70 /  10  20  60  70
ASX  46  69  52  68 /  10  30  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...MCLOVIN
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 270007 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
707 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

COMPACT VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF RATHER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS MOST OF OUR NW WISCONSIN ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTHEAST..WITH SOME AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH
BY THE TIME THE RAIN WINDS DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALONG THE NW EDGE OF THE PRECIP AREA..LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
DIAGNOSTIC DATA SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING THE RAIN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH
SHORE THIS EVENING..SO WE HAVE REDUCED POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH A
VERY TIGHT/STRONG NW TO SE POP GRADIENT ACROSS BURNETT AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES.

OVER THE FAR NW CWA..COMBINATION OF NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW BRIEF/WEAK TSTORMS
JUST TO THE WEST OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY. HOWEVER..THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND SHOULD MOSTLY /AND PERHAPS ENTIRELY/ STAY WEST OF THE DLH CWA.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE COME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH OR SO GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER..THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
BE LIMITED. IT WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER HAZY IN MANY AREAS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE PLUME OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA CLEARLY EVIDENT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA CONTINUES TO ADVECT ESEWD IN AMBIENT FLOW.

AVIATION DISCUSSION IS ALSO UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WESTERN EXTENT OF MAIN PRECIPITATION SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS DEPICT THE LOW CENTER
IS CURRENTLY RESIDING NEAR KLSE...TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ACROSS SE MN. AS THE LOW MIGRATES INTO
CENTRAL WIS THIS EVENING...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN REACHES AS FAR
WEST AS THE I35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY NUDGING IN
THE TWIN PORTS/TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.

PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND
AN INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP MIXING IN
EXCESS OF 8000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR FALLING DEW
PTS/RH VALUES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT GENERAL BROAD
BRUSH CH POPS FOR SCT THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
RAPIDLY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
RAIN SHOWER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE STATE.  MODELS HAVE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL COVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
KINL/KBRD..BUT A FEW PERIODS OF LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL
AFFECT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR. RAIN WILL AFFECT KHYR UNTIL AFTER 06Z..WITH
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. THE FOG COULD BE
SLOWER TO LIFT WED MORNING THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE HYR
TAF. FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN KHIB/KDLH WITH LIGHT
WINDS..BUT VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS.
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND TRANSITION TO A
SLOWLY RISING CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASE LAYER FROM 2-3 KFT TO 5-7 KFT BY
18-20Z WED IN MOST AREAS. SCATTERED TSRA COULD AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT FOR KBRD AFTER 19Z WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  80  51  66 /  10  30  20  40
INL  52  80  51  70 /  20  30  20  70
BRD  54  83  57  78 /  10  10  10  50
HYR  52  81  52  80 / 100  30  10  20
ASX  49  84  46  69 / 100  30  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
AVIATION...MILLER








000
FXUS63 KDLH 270007 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
707 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

COMPACT VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF RATHER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS MOST OF OUR NW WISCONSIN ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTHEAST..WITH SOME AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH
BY THE TIME THE RAIN WINDS DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALONG THE NW EDGE OF THE PRECIP AREA..LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
DIAGNOSTIC DATA SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING THE RAIN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH
SHORE THIS EVENING..SO WE HAVE REDUCED POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH A
VERY TIGHT/STRONG NW TO SE POP GRADIENT ACROSS BURNETT AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES.

OVER THE FAR NW CWA..COMBINATION OF NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW BRIEF/WEAK TSTORMS
JUST TO THE WEST OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY. HOWEVER..THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND SHOULD MOSTLY /AND PERHAPS ENTIRELY/ STAY WEST OF THE DLH CWA.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE COME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH OR SO GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER..THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
BE LIMITED. IT WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER HAZY IN MANY AREAS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE PLUME OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA CLEARLY EVIDENT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA CONTINUES TO ADVECT ESEWD IN AMBIENT FLOW.

AVIATION DISCUSSION IS ALSO UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WESTERN EXTENT OF MAIN PRECIPITATION SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS DEPICT THE LOW CENTER
IS CURRENTLY RESIDING NEAR KLSE...TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ACROSS SE MN. AS THE LOW MIGRATES INTO
CENTRAL WIS THIS EVENING...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN REACHES AS FAR
WEST AS THE I35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY NUDGING IN
THE TWIN PORTS/TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.

PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND
AN INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP MIXING IN
EXCESS OF 8000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR FALLING DEW
PTS/RH VALUES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT GENERAL BROAD
BRUSH CH POPS FOR SCT THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
RAPIDLY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
RAIN SHOWER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE STATE.  MODELS HAVE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL COVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
KINL/KBRD..BUT A FEW PERIODS OF LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL
AFFECT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR. RAIN WILL AFFECT KHYR UNTIL AFTER 06Z..WITH
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. THE FOG COULD BE
SLOWER TO LIFT WED MORNING THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE HYR
TAF. FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN KHIB/KDLH WITH LIGHT
WINDS..BUT VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS.
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND TRANSITION TO A
SLOWLY RISING CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASE LAYER FROM 2-3 KFT TO 5-7 KFT BY
18-20Z WED IN MOST AREAS. SCATTERED TSRA COULD AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT FOR KBRD AFTER 19Z WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  80  51  66 /  10  30  20  40
INL  52  80  51  70 /  20  30  20  70
BRD  54  83  57  78 /  10  10  10  50
HYR  52  81  52  80 / 100  30  10  20
ASX  49  84  46  69 / 100  30  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
AVIATION...MILLER







000
FXUS63 KDLH 270007 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
707 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

COMPACT VORT MAX AND ASSOCIATED NARROW RIBBON OF RATHER STRONG
FORCING FOR ASCENT CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
WISCONSIN THIS EVENING. A FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHIELD OF RAIN WILL
MOVE ACROSS MOST OF OUR NW WISCONSIN ZONES THROUGH MIDNIGHT AS
THIS FEATURE MOVES NORTHEAST..WITH SOME AMOUNTS EXCEEDING AN INCH
BY THE TIME THE RAIN WINDS DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.

ALONG THE NW EDGE OF THE PRECIP AREA..LATEST RADAR TRENDS AND
DIAGNOSTIC DATA SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE IN
BRINGING THE RAIN NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE TWIN PORTS AND NORTH
SHORE THIS EVENING..SO WE HAVE REDUCED POPS IN THESE AREAS WITH A
VERY TIGHT/STRONG NW TO SE POP GRADIENT ACROSS BURNETT AND DOUGLAS
COUNTIES.

OVER THE FAR NW CWA..COMBINATION OF NEAR DRY-ADIABATIC LOW LEVEL
LAPSE RATES AND DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING IS CONTINUING TO
SUPPORT NEW DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND A FEW BRIEF/WEAK TSTORMS
JUST TO THE WEST OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY. HOWEVER..THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE WANING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS
AND SHOULD MOSTLY /AND PERHAPS ENTIRELY/ STAY WEST OF THE DLH CWA.

STEEP LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN WNW FLOW ALOFT.
IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A FEW STORMS COULD BE COME
STRONG WITH SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH OR SO GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER..THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO
BE LIMITED. IT WILL ALSO BECOME RATHER HAZY IN MANY AREAS DURING
THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE PLUME OF SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES IN
BRITISH COLUMBIA CLEARLY EVIDENT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA CONTINUES TO ADVECT ESEWD IN AMBIENT FLOW.

AVIATION DISCUSSION IS ALSO UPDATED FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WESTERN EXTENT OF MAIN PRECIPITATION SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS DEPICT THE LOW CENTER
IS CURRENTLY RESIDING NEAR KLSE...TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ACROSS SE MN. AS THE LOW MIGRATES INTO
CENTRAL WIS THIS EVENING...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN REACHES AS FAR
WEST AS THE I35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY NUDGING IN
THE TWIN PORTS/TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.

PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND
AN INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP MIXING IN
EXCESS OF 8000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR FALLING DEW
PTS/RH VALUES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT GENERAL BROAD
BRUSH CH POPS FOR SCT THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
RAPIDLY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
RAIN SHOWER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE STATE.  MODELS HAVE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL COVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 707 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
KINL/KBRD..BUT A FEW PERIODS OF LOWER FLIGHT CATEGORIES WILL
AFFECT KHIB/KDLH/KHYR. RAIN WILL AFFECT KHYR UNTIL AFTER 06Z..WITH
FOG EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER THE RAIN ENDS. THE FOG COULD BE
SLOWER TO LIFT WED MORNING THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED IN THE HYR
TAF. FOG IS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN KHIB/KDLH WITH LIGHT
WINDS..BUT VSBY IS NOT EXPECTED TO DROP TO IFR CONDITIONS.
LINGERING LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT AND TRANSITION TO A
SLOWLY RISING CONVECTIVE CLOUD BASE LAYER FROM 2-3 KFT TO 5-7 KFT BY
18-20Z WED IN MOST AREAS. SCATTERED TSRA COULD AFFECT ALL TAF
SITES EXCEPT FOR KBRD AFTER 19Z WED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  80  51  66 /  10  30  20  40
INL  52  80  51  70 /  20  30  20  70
BRD  54  83  57  78 /  10  10  10  50
HYR  52  81  52  80 / 100  30  10  20
ASX  49  84  46  69 / 100  30  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
AVIATION...MILLER








000
FXUS63 KDLH 262040
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
340 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WESTERN EXTENT OF MAIN PRECIPITATION SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS DEPICT THE LOW CENTER
IS CURRENTLY RESIDING NEAR KLSE...TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ACROSS SE MN. AS THE LOW MIGRATES INTO
CENTRAL WIS THIS EVENING...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN REACHES AS FAR
WEST AS THE I35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY NUDGING IN
THE TWIN PORTS/TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.

PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND
AN INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP MIXING IN
EXCESS OF 8000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR FALLING DEW
PTS/RH VALUES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT GENERAL BROAD
BRUSH CH POPS FOR SCT THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
RAPIDLY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
RAIN SHOWER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE STATE.  MODELS HAVE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL COVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD IS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO JUST SOUTH OF BRD. NORTH OF THE CLOUD COVER LINE...BRD-
INL-HIB ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN AT THAT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD. ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE EXPERIENCED AT THESE
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT DLH...THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AIRPORT..SO IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT DLH THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS
THE CLOUDS PULL AWAY TO THE EAST...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MFR
WITH SOME FIR IN VSBYS/CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  80  51  66 /  20  30  20  40
INL  52  80  51  70 /  20  20  20  70
BRD  54  83  57  78 /  10  10  10  50
HYR  52  81  52  80 / 100  30  10  20
ASX  49  84  46  69 /  90  30  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART







000
FXUS63 KDLH 262040
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
340 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WESTERN EXTENT OF MAIN PRECIPITATION SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS DEPICT THE LOW CENTER
IS CURRENTLY RESIDING NEAR KLSE...TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ACROSS SE MN. AS THE LOW MIGRATES INTO
CENTRAL WIS THIS EVENING...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN REACHES AS FAR
WEST AS THE I35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY NUDGING IN
THE TWIN PORTS/TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.

PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND
AN INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP MIXING IN
EXCESS OF 8000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR FALLING DEW
PTS/RH VALUES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT GENERAL BROAD
BRUSH CH POPS FOR SCT THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
RAPIDLY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
RAIN SHOWER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE STATE.  MODELS HAVE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL COVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD IS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO JUST SOUTH OF BRD. NORTH OF THE CLOUD COVER LINE...BRD-
INL-HIB ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN AT THAT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD. ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE EXPERIENCED AT THESE
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT DLH...THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AIRPORT..SO IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT DLH THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS
THE CLOUDS PULL AWAY TO THE EAST...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MFR
WITH SOME FIR IN VSBYS/CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  80  51  66 /  20  30  20  40
INL  52  80  51  70 /  20  20  20  70
BRD  54  83  57  78 /  10  10  10  50
HYR  52  81  52  80 / 100  30  10  20
ASX  49  84  46  69 /  90  30  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART







000
FXUS63 KDLH 262040
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
340 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WESTERN EXTENT OF MAIN PRECIPITATION SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS DEPICT THE LOW CENTER
IS CURRENTLY RESIDING NEAR KLSE...TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ACROSS SE MN. AS THE LOW MIGRATES INTO
CENTRAL WIS THIS EVENING...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN REACHES AS FAR
WEST AS THE I35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY NUDGING IN
THE TWIN PORTS/TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.

PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND
AN INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP MIXING IN
EXCESS OF 8000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR FALLING DEW
PTS/RH VALUES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT GENERAL BROAD
BRUSH CH POPS FOR SCT THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
RAPIDLY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
RAIN SHOWER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE STATE.  MODELS HAVE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL COVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD IS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO JUST SOUTH OF BRD. NORTH OF THE CLOUD COVER LINE...BRD-
INL-HIB ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN AT THAT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD. ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE EXPERIENCED AT THESE
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT DLH...THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AIRPORT..SO IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT DLH THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS
THE CLOUDS PULL AWAY TO THE EAST...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MFR
WITH SOME FIR IN VSBYS/CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  80  51  66 /  20  30  20  40
INL  52  80  51  70 /  20  20  20  70
BRD  54  83  57  78 /  10  10  10  50
HYR  52  81  52  80 / 100  30  10  20
ASX  49  84  46  69 /  90  30  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 262040
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
340 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON WESTERN EXTENT OF MAIN PRECIPITATION SWATH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE VERTICALLY STACKED LOW LIFTING ACROSS WISCONSIN
OVERNIGHT. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBS DEPICT THE LOW CENTER
IS CURRENTLY RESIDING NEAR KLSE...TRACKING TO THE NORTHEAST. A
LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD HAS WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW...PUSHING
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND ACROSS SE MN. AS THE LOW MIGRATES INTO
CENTRAL WIS THIS EVENING...THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTH. LATEST HIGH RES MODELS SUGGEST THE RAIN REACHES AS FAR
WEST AS THE I35 CORRIDOR...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLY NUDGING IN
THE TWIN PORTS/TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD.

PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. LOCATIONS
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD RAIN AND A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS AROUND
AN INCH WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE MUCH WARMER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND 80 ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY DEEP MIXING IN
EXCESS OF 8000 FT DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALLOWING FOR FALLING DEW
PTS/RH VALUES AND INCREASED INSTABILITY. HAVE KEPT GENERAL BROAD
BRUSH CH POPS FOR SCT THUNDER IN THE AFTERNOON...AS SFC BASED CAPE
VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED MOISTURE AS MUCH DRIER AIR FILTERS
RAPIDLY INTO THE REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

IT WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE REGION IS IN-BETWEEN SYSTEMS.  THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF A
RAIN SHOWER EARLY THURSDAY MORNING OUT AHEAD OF THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING THE STATE.  MODELS HAVE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND A BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION BEGINNING
THURSDAY MORNING AND WILL COVER THE ENTIRE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. QPF AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.25 TO 0.60
INCHES. THE PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS THE
TROUGH MOVES EAST OF THE REGION.

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT AND KEEP THE AREA DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE
COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S. A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BRINGING A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD IS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO JUST SOUTH OF BRD. NORTH OF THE CLOUD COVER LINE...BRD-
INL-HIB ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN AT THAT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD. ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE EXPERIENCED AT THESE
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT DLH...THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AIRPORT..SO IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT DLH THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS
THE CLOUDS PULL AWAY TO THE EAST...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MFR
WITH SOME FIR IN VSBYS/CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  80  51  66 /  20  30  20  40
INL  52  80  51  70 /  20  20  20  70
BRD  54  83  57  78 /  10  10  10  50
HYR  52  81  52  80 / 100  30  10  20
ASX  49  84  46  69 /  90  30  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 261747
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

* 18Z TAF ISSUANCE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM*

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXITS IOWA...AND
TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS....EXTENDING FROM OWATONNA IN SE MINN...MOVING INTO
THE EAU CLAIRE WI AREA. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE
PARK FALLS AND WI HIGHWAY 70 CORRIDOR GENERALLY AFTER THE NOON
HOUR...MOVING INTO THE HAYWARD LAKES REGION AFTER 200 PM.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE US HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN WI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND THE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG
AT TIMES AS WELL. ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY OVER NW WI...AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TRAILING SFC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ATTEMPTING TO BUILD
IN OVER NRN MN THIS MORNING...BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER S/W FROM
THE N/NW COMBINED WITH A NEWD PROGRESSING INVERTED TROUGH OVER MID
MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE UPPER WAVE EVENTUALLY CATCHES UP TO THE SFC FEATURE. A
STRONG SURGE OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIFT ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH
THE SYSTEM AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NW WI...WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW THE RAIN TO END ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED MORNING. A BACK
DOOR WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER S/W WILL MOVE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND
80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN ZONES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN OUR NW COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANCE WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS IS FASTER IN CLEARING THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA...WITH
THE ECMWF A FAIR AMOUNT SLOWER. OUR FORECAST IS A BIT OF A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NW TO SE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE GFS HAS RETREATED FROM THEIR EARLIER WETTER FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...IN FAVOR OF THE MUCH DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. MONDAY ALSO
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS POINT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE
COOL...AND WE MAY NEED SOME TYPE OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES AS THE
NIGHT APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 70S...BUT DROP BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD IS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO JUST SOUTH OF BRD. NORTH OF THE CLOUD COVER LINE...BRD-
INL-HIB ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN AT THAT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD. ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE EXPERIENCED AT THESE
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT DLH...THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AIRPORT..SO IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT DLH THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS
THE CLOUDS PULL AWAY TO THE EAST...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MFR
WITH SOME FIR IN VSBYS/CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING WEDNEDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  50  81  50 /  20  20  30  20
INL  78  50  80  50 /  20  20  30  20
BRD  70  54  82  56 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  69  49  81  51 / 100  20  20  10
ASX  62  47  83  45 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 261747
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

* 18Z TAF ISSUANCE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM*

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXITS IOWA...AND
TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS....EXTENDING FROM OWATONNA IN SE MINN...MOVING INTO
THE EAU CLAIRE WI AREA. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE
PARK FALLS AND WI HIGHWAY 70 CORRIDOR GENERALLY AFTER THE NOON
HOUR...MOVING INTO THE HAYWARD LAKES REGION AFTER 200 PM.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE US HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN WI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND THE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG
AT TIMES AS WELL. ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY OVER NW WI...AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TRAILING SFC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ATTEMPTING TO BUILD
IN OVER NRN MN THIS MORNING...BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER S/W FROM
THE N/NW COMBINED WITH A NEWD PROGRESSING INVERTED TROUGH OVER MID
MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE UPPER WAVE EVENTUALLY CATCHES UP TO THE SFC FEATURE. A
STRONG SURGE OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIFT ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH
THE SYSTEM AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NW WI...WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW THE RAIN TO END ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED MORNING. A BACK
DOOR WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER S/W WILL MOVE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND
80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN ZONES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN OUR NW COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANCE WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS IS FASTER IN CLEARING THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA...WITH
THE ECMWF A FAIR AMOUNT SLOWER. OUR FORECAST IS A BIT OF A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NW TO SE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE GFS HAS RETREATED FROM THEIR EARLIER WETTER FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...IN FAVOR OF THE MUCH DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. MONDAY ALSO
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS POINT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE
COOL...AND WE MAY NEED SOME TYPE OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES AS THE
NIGHT APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 70S...BUT DROP BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD IS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO JUST SOUTH OF BRD. NORTH OF THE CLOUD COVER LINE...BRD-
INL-HIB ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN AT THAT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD. ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE EXPERIENCED AT THESE
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT DLH...THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AIRPORT..SO IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT DLH THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS
THE CLOUDS PULL AWAY TO THE EAST...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MFR
WITH SOME FIR IN VSBYS/CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING WEDNEDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  50  81  50 /  20  20  30  20
INL  78  50  80  50 /  20  20  30  20
BRD  70  54  82  56 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  69  49  81  51 / 100  20  20  10
ASX  62  47  83  45 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...STEWART







000
FXUS63 KDLH 261747
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1247 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

* 18Z TAF ISSUANCE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM*

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXITS IOWA...AND
TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS....EXTENDING FROM OWATONNA IN SE MINN...MOVING INTO
THE EAU CLAIRE WI AREA. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE
PARK FALLS AND WI HIGHWAY 70 CORRIDOR GENERALLY AFTER THE NOON
HOUR...MOVING INTO THE HAYWARD LAKES REGION AFTER 200 PM.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE US HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN WI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND THE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG
AT TIMES AS WELL. ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY OVER NW WI...AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TRAILING SFC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ATTEMPTING TO BUILD
IN OVER NRN MN THIS MORNING...BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER S/W FROM
THE N/NW COMBINED WITH A NEWD PROGRESSING INVERTED TROUGH OVER MID
MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE UPPER WAVE EVENTUALLY CATCHES UP TO THE SFC FEATURE. A
STRONG SURGE OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIFT ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH
THE SYSTEM AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NW WI...WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW THE RAIN TO END ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED MORNING. A BACK
DOOR WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER S/W WILL MOVE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND
80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN ZONES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN OUR NW COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANCE WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS IS FASTER IN CLEARING THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA...WITH
THE ECMWF A FAIR AMOUNT SLOWER. OUR FORECAST IS A BIT OF A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NW TO SE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE GFS HAS RETREATED FROM THEIR EARLIER WETTER FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...IN FAVOR OF THE MUCH DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. MONDAY ALSO
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS POINT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE
COOL...AND WE MAY NEED SOME TYPE OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES AS THE
NIGHT APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 70S...BUT DROP BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A LARGE CLOUD SHIELD IS BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO JUST SOUTH OF BRD. NORTH OF THE CLOUD COVER LINE...BRD-
INL-HIB ARE VFR AND SHOULD REMAIN AT THAT CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TIME PERIOD. ONLY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BE EXPERIENCED AT THESE
SITES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

AT DLH...THE EDGE OF THE CLOUD SHIELD WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AIRPORT..SO IFR CONDITIONS WILL AFFECT DLH THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS
THE CLOUDS PULL AWAY TO THE EAST...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MFR
WITH SOME FIR IN VSBYS/CLOUDS OVERNIGHT. THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BY MID-MORNING WEDNEDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  50  81  50 /  20  20  30  20
INL  78  50  80  50 /  20  20  30  20
BRD  70  54  82  56 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  69  49  81  51 / 100  20  20  10
ASX  62  47  83  45 /  50  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 261442
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
942 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXITS IOWA...AND
TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS....EXTENDING FROM OWATONNA IN SE MINN...MOVING INTO
THE EAU CLAIRE WI AREA. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE
PARK FALLS AND WI HIGHWAY 70 CORRIDOR GENERALLY AFTER THE NOON
HOUR...MOVING INTO THE HAYWARD LAKES REGION AFTER 200 PM.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE US HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN WI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND THE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG
AT TIMES AS WELL. ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY OVER NW WI...AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TRAILING SFC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ATTEMPTING TO BUILD
IN OVER NRN MN THIS MORNING...BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER S/W FROM
THE N/NW COMBINED WITH A NEWD PROGRESSING INVERTED TROUGH OVER MID
MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE UPPER WAVE EVENTUALLY CATCHES UP TO THE SFC FEATURE. A
STRONG SURGE OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIFT ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH
THE SYSTEM AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NW WI...WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW THE RAIN TO END ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED MORNING. A BACK
DOOR WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER S/W WILL MOVE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND
80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN ZONES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN OUR NW COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANCE WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS IS FASTER IN CLEARING THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA...WITH
THE ECMWF A FAIR AMOUNT SLOWER. OUR FORECAST IS A BIT OF A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NW TO SE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE GFS HAS RETREATED FROM THEIR EARLIER WETTER FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...IN FAVOR OF THE MUCH DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. MONDAY ALSO
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS POINT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE
COOL...AND WE MAY NEED SOME TYPE OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES AS THE
NIGHT APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 70S...BUT DROP BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

EXPECT LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT KDLH/KBRD AS LIGHT
WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE DAYTIME RAINFALL ALLOW FOG
TO DEVELOP. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME BEFORE 12Z AT KHIB/KHYR. CONFIDENCE BETWEEN THE GFS MOS/NAM
MOS WAS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AT THESE SITES... SO PUT IN TEMPO GROUPS
ACCORDINGLY. KINL WILL BE THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS
MORNING INVERSIONS ERODE. HOWEVER... MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STILL
LINGER... AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  50  81  50 /  20  20  30  20
INL  78  50  80  50 /  20  20  30  20
BRD  72  54  82  56 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  71  49  81  51 /  90  20  20  10
ASX  64  47  83  45 /  80  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MCLOVIN







000
FXUS63 KDLH 261442
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
942 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXITS IOWA...AND
TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS....EXTENDING FROM OWATONNA IN SE MINN...MOVING INTO
THE EAU CLAIRE WI AREA. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE
PARK FALLS AND WI HIGHWAY 70 CORRIDOR GENERALLY AFTER THE NOON
HOUR...MOVING INTO THE HAYWARD LAKES REGION AFTER 200 PM.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE US HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN WI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND THE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG
AT TIMES AS WELL. ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY OVER NW WI...AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TRAILING SFC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ATTEMPTING TO BUILD
IN OVER NRN MN THIS MORNING...BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER S/W FROM
THE N/NW COMBINED WITH A NEWD PROGRESSING INVERTED TROUGH OVER MID
MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE UPPER WAVE EVENTUALLY CATCHES UP TO THE SFC FEATURE. A
STRONG SURGE OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIFT ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH
THE SYSTEM AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NW WI...WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW THE RAIN TO END ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED MORNING. A BACK
DOOR WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER S/W WILL MOVE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND
80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN ZONES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN OUR NW COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANCE WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS IS FASTER IN CLEARING THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA...WITH
THE ECMWF A FAIR AMOUNT SLOWER. OUR FORECAST IS A BIT OF A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NW TO SE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE GFS HAS RETREATED FROM THEIR EARLIER WETTER FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...IN FAVOR OF THE MUCH DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. MONDAY ALSO
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS POINT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE
COOL...AND WE MAY NEED SOME TYPE OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES AS THE
NIGHT APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 70S...BUT DROP BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

EXPECT LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT KDLH/KBRD AS LIGHT
WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE DAYTIME RAINFALL ALLOW FOG
TO DEVELOP. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME BEFORE 12Z AT KHIB/KHYR. CONFIDENCE BETWEEN THE GFS MOS/NAM
MOS WAS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AT THESE SITES... SO PUT IN TEMPO GROUPS
ACCORDINGLY. KINL WILL BE THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS
MORNING INVERSIONS ERODE. HOWEVER... MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STILL
LINGER... AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  50  81  50 /  20  20  30  20
INL  78  50  80  50 /  20  20  30  20
BRD  72  54  82  56 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  71  49  81  51 /  90  20  20  10
ASX  64  47  83  45 /  80  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MCLOVIN








000
FXUS63 KDLH 261442
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
942 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

HAVE INCREASED POPS AND QPF ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A LOW PRESSURE CENTER EXITS IOWA...AND
TRACKS ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS THE
LEADING EDGE OF A LARGE SWATH OF RAIN...WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS....EXTENDING FROM OWATONNA IN SE MINN...MOVING INTO
THE EAU CLAIRE WI AREA. THIS AREA OF RAIN IS ON TRACK TO REACH THE
PARK FALLS AND WI HIGHWAY 70 CORRIDOR GENERALLY AFTER THE NOON
HOUR...MOVING INTO THE HAYWARD LAKES REGION AFTER 200 PM.

THE RAIN WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...WITH RAINFALL TOTALS OF AN INCH OR MORE EXPECTED FOR
LOCATIONS EAST OF THE US HIGHWAY 53 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN WI.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND THE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG
AT TIMES AS WELL. ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY OVER NW WI...AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TRAILING SFC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ATTEMPTING TO BUILD
IN OVER NRN MN THIS MORNING...BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER S/W FROM
THE N/NW COMBINED WITH A NEWD PROGRESSING INVERTED TROUGH OVER MID
MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE UPPER WAVE EVENTUALLY CATCHES UP TO THE SFC FEATURE. A
STRONG SURGE OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIFT ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH
THE SYSTEM AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NW WI...WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW THE RAIN TO END ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED MORNING. A BACK
DOOR WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER S/W WILL MOVE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND
80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN ZONES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN OUR NW COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANCE WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS IS FASTER IN CLEARING THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA...WITH
THE ECMWF A FAIR AMOUNT SLOWER. OUR FORECAST IS A BIT OF A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NW TO SE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE GFS HAS RETREATED FROM THEIR EARLIER WETTER FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...IN FAVOR OF THE MUCH DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. MONDAY ALSO
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS POINT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE
COOL...AND WE MAY NEED SOME TYPE OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES AS THE
NIGHT APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 70S...BUT DROP BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

EXPECT LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT KDLH/KBRD AS LIGHT
WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE DAYTIME RAINFALL ALLOW FOG
TO DEVELOP. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME BEFORE 12Z AT KHIB/KHYR. CONFIDENCE BETWEEN THE GFS MOS/NAM
MOS WAS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AT THESE SITES... SO PUT IN TEMPO GROUPS
ACCORDINGLY. KINL WILL BE THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS
MORNING INVERSIONS ERODE. HOWEVER... MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STILL
LINGER... AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  50  81  50 /  20  20  30  20
INL  78  50  80  50 /  20  20  30  20
BRD  72  54  82  56 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  71  49  81  51 /  90  20  20  10
ASX  64  47  83  45 /  80  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MCLOVIN








000
FXUS63 KDLH 260908
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
408 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CENTERED AROUND THE LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...WITH PATCHY FOG
AT TIMES AS WELL. ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY OVER NW WI...AND ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

TRAILING SFC FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE WRN
GREAT LAKES CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN AND PATCHY DRIZZLE OVER
THE REGION THIS MORNING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS ATTEMPTING TO BUILD
IN OVER NRN MN THIS MORNING...BUT AN APPROACHING UPPER S/W FROM
THE N/NW COMBINED WITH A NEWD PROGRESSING INVERTED TROUGH OVER MID
MS RIVER VALLEY TODAY WILL PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS.
THE INVERTED SFC TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL INTENSIFY THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE UPPER WAVE EVENTUALLY CATCHES UP TO THE SFC FEATURE. A
STRONG SURGE OF MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR WILL LIFT ACROSS WISCONSIN WITH
THE SYSTEM AND ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR T-STORMS WILL
REMAIN ACROSS NW WI...WITH SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING THE MAIN THREATS.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW TONIGHT WILL
ALLOW THE RAIN TO END ACROSS THE AREA INTO WED MORNING. A BACK
DOOR WEAK COLD FRONT AND UPPER S/W WILL MOVE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND TRIGGER A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. TONIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S. A MUCH WARMER AIR MASS WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE 70S AND
80S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 408 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN
OUR WESTERN ZONES. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL THEN
BECOME THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING PRECIPITATION ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL BE IN OUR NW COUNTIES...BUT THE CHANCE WILL EXPAND ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS IS FASTER IN CLEARING THE PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE CWA...WITH
THE ECMWF A FAIR AMOUNT SLOWER. OUR FORECAST IS A BIT OF A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO SOLUTIONS...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GRADUALLY ENDING FROM NW TO SE BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MUCH
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD
FRONT...WITH DRY WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
THE GFS HAS RETREATED FROM THEIR EARLIER WETTER FORECAST FOR
SUNDAY...IN FAVOR OF THE MUCH DRIER ECMWF SOLUTION. MONDAY ALSO
LOOKS FAIRLY DRY AT THIS POINT. SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE
COOL...AND WE MAY NEED SOME TYPE OF FROST OR FREEZE HEADLINES AS THE
NIGHT APPROACHES. HIGHS WILL START OUT IN THE 70S...BUT DROP BACK
INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

EXPECT LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT KDLH/KBRD AS LIGHT
WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE DAYTIME RAINFALL ALLOW FOG
TO DEVELOP. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME BEFORE 12Z AT KHIB/KHYR. CONFIDENCE BETWEEN THE GFS MOS/NAM
MOS WAS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AT THESE SITES... SO PUT IN TEMPO GROUPS
ACCORDINGLY. KINL WILL BE THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS
MORNING INVERSIONS ERODE. HOWEVER... MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STILL
LINGER... AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  65  50  81  50 /  20  20  30  20
INL  78  50  80  50 /  20  20  30  20
BRD  72  54  82  56 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  71  49  81  51 /  50  20  20  10
ASX  64  47  83  45 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MCLOVIN







000
FXUS63 KDLH 260551
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1251 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WHILE THE DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WEAKENS...ANOTHER DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN HAS FORMED FROM
NORTHERN PINE COUNTY THROUGH THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS ARE
ALSO MOVING NEAR SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY AT 04Z. NO LIGHTNING FOR
NOW. MINOR TWEAKS MADE FOR THIS CHANGE IN ACTIVITY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

DEFORMATION ZONE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NE MN.
PLENTY OF FGEN AS WELL. STATIONARY FRONT OVER NW WI AT 01Z WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 50S NORTH OF
THE FRONT...WITH UPPER 40S RIGHT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS/WEATHER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN THE
BALLPARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UPPER PENINSULA
MICHIGAN AND A COUPLE POTENT SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE SW FORECAST AREA.
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO NW WISCONSIN AND EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE WAS COOL EAST TO NE FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND COOL NE FLOW OVER NE MINNESOTA. A LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN COVERED MOST OF NE MINNESOTA...AND THIS
WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THAT
REGION AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN UPPER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOW 60S OVER NE MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN NW WISCONSIN. THERE
WERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA
BORDER...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE NE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM TO EAST AS THE LOW IN UPPER MICHIGAN LIFTS NE
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORTWAVES LIFT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AND ONTARIO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. THE
RAP13/HRRR/WRF/NAM12 MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD CLIP THE
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IF THE STORMS REACH THAT FAR
NORTH...SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY COULD SEE STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE NORTHLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...AND CONSIDERING
THE MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW MORNING
HEATING SO THE FOG COULD LINGER INTO THE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...THE WEAK LOW AND TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IN NW WISCONSIN. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WRF/SREF/NAM12 MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA WITH THE THE DAYTIME
HEATING. THOSE MODELS HAVE LOW AMOUNTS OF CAPE...SO EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WEAK. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
BECAUSE THE COOL EAST TO NE FLOW FROM THE LAKE WILL LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE LAKE...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IT WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST PART OF LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE SE PORTION
OF THE NW WI FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
NE MN. THERE WILL BE A BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
AREA. ON MONDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

EXPECT LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT KDLH/KBRD AS LIGHT
WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE DAYTIME RAINFALL ALLOW FOG
TO DEVELOP. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME BEFORE 12Z AT KHIB/KHYR. CONFIDENCE BETWEEN THE GFS MOS/NAM
MOS WAS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AT THESE SITES... SO PUT IN TEMPO GROUPS
ACCORDINGLY. KINL WILL BE THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS
MORNING INVERSIONS ERODE. HOWEVER... MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STILL
LINGER... AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  78  52  68 /  20  30  20  30
INL  49  79  50  73 /  20  40  20  60
BRD  52  81  56  77 /  10  10  20  50
HYR  49  80  53  80 /  20  10  10  20
ASX  45  78  49  71 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...MCLOVIN








000
FXUS63 KDLH 260551
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1251 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WHILE THE DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WEAKENS...ANOTHER DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN HAS FORMED FROM
NORTHERN PINE COUNTY THROUGH THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS ARE
ALSO MOVING NEAR SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY AT 04Z. NO LIGHTNING FOR
NOW. MINOR TWEAKS MADE FOR THIS CHANGE IN ACTIVITY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

DEFORMATION ZONE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NE MN.
PLENTY OF FGEN AS WELL. STATIONARY FRONT OVER NW WI AT 01Z WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 50S NORTH OF
THE FRONT...WITH UPPER 40S RIGHT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS/WEATHER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN THE
BALLPARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UPPER PENINSULA
MICHIGAN AND A COUPLE POTENT SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE SW FORECAST AREA.
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO NW WISCONSIN AND EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE WAS COOL EAST TO NE FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND COOL NE FLOW OVER NE MINNESOTA. A LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN COVERED MOST OF NE MINNESOTA...AND THIS
WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THAT
REGION AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN UPPER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOW 60S OVER NE MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN NW WISCONSIN. THERE
WERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA
BORDER...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE NE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM TO EAST AS THE LOW IN UPPER MICHIGAN LIFTS NE
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORTWAVES LIFT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AND ONTARIO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. THE
RAP13/HRRR/WRF/NAM12 MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD CLIP THE
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IF THE STORMS REACH THAT FAR
NORTH...SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY COULD SEE STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE NORTHLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...AND CONSIDERING
THE MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW MORNING
HEATING SO THE FOG COULD LINGER INTO THE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...THE WEAK LOW AND TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IN NW WISCONSIN. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WRF/SREF/NAM12 MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA WITH THE THE DAYTIME
HEATING. THOSE MODELS HAVE LOW AMOUNTS OF CAPE...SO EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WEAK. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
BECAUSE THE COOL EAST TO NE FLOW FROM THE LAKE WILL LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE LAKE...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IT WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST PART OF LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE SE PORTION
OF THE NW WI FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
NE MN. THERE WILL BE A BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
AREA. ON MONDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1250 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

EXPECT LIFR VIS/CIG CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AT KDLH/KBRD AS LIGHT
WINDS AND LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE DAYTIME RAINFALL ALLOW FOG
TO DEVELOP. LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO
TIME BEFORE 12Z AT KHIB/KHYR. CONFIDENCE BETWEEN THE GFS MOS/NAM
MOS WAS NOT QUITE AS HIGH AT THESE SITES... SO PUT IN TEMPO GROUPS
ACCORDINGLY. KINL WILL BE THE EXCEPTION ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WITH
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS EXPECTED AFTER 18Z TUESDAY AS
MORNING INVERSIONS ERODE. HOWEVER... MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STILL
LINGER... AND THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  78  52  68 /  20  30  20  30
INL  49  79  50  73 /  20  40  20  60
BRD  52  81  56  77 /  10  10  20  50
HYR  49  80  53  80 /  20  10  10  20
ASX  45  78  49  71 /  20  20  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...MCLOVIN







000
FXUS63 KDLH 260403
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1103 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1102 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WHILE THE DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
WEAKENS...ANOTHER DEFORMATION BAND OF RAIN HAS FORMED FROM
NORTHERN PINE COUNTY THROUGH THE APOSTLE ISLANDS. SOME SHOWERS ARE
ALSO MOVING NEAR SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY AT 04Z. NO LIGHTNING FOR
NOW. MINOR TWEAKS MADE FOR THIS CHANGE IN ACTIVITY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

DEFORMATION ZONE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NE MN.
PLENTY OF FGEN AS WELL. STATIONARY FRONT OVER NW WI AT 01Z WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 50S NORTH OF
THE FRONT...WITH UPPER 40S RIGHT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS/WEATHER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN THE
BALLPARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UPPER PENINSULA
MICHIGAN AND A COUPLE POTENT SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE SW FORECAST AREA.
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO NW WISCONSIN AND EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE WAS COOL EAST TO NE FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND COOL NE FLOW OVER NE MINNESOTA. A LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN COVERED MOST OF NE MINNESOTA...AND THIS
WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THAT
REGION AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN UPPER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOW 60S OVER NE MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN NW WISCONSIN. THERE
WERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA
BORDER...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE NE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM TO EAST AS THE LOW IN UPPER MICHIGAN LIFTS NE
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORTWAVES LIFT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AND ONTARIO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. THE
RAP13/HRRR/WRF/NAM12 MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD CLIP THE
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IF THE STORMS REACH THAT FAR
NORTH...SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY COULD SEE STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE NORTHLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...AND CONSIDERING
THE MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW MORNING
HEATING SO THE FOG COULD LINGER INTO THE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...THE WEAK LOW AND TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IN NW WISCONSIN. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WRF/SREF/NAM12 MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA WITH THE THE DAYTIME
HEATING. THOSE MODELS HAVE LOW AMOUNTS OF CAPE...SO EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WEAK. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
BECAUSE THE COOL EAST TO NE FLOW FROM THE LAKE WILL LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE LAKE...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IT WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST PART OF LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE SE PORTION
OF THE NW WI FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
NE MN. THERE WILL BE A BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
AREA. ON MONDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT HIB AND INL UNTIL 03Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. INL WILL MAINTAIN ITS VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST. EXPECT -DZ AND BR AT HIB/DLH TO ABOUT 14Z WITH
LIFR/IFR. DLH WILL HAVE VLIFR VSBYS UNTIL 06Z BEFORE VSBYS IMPROVE
TO MVFR...THEN VFR AFTER 14Z. BRD WILL HAVE IFR WITH VCSH/BR UNTIL
04Z THEN -DZ/BR TO 08Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. HYR WILL BE VFR
UNTIL 05Z WITH VCSH. AFTER 05Z -DZ/BR AND MVFR TO NEAR 14Z THEN
VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  48  78 /  60  20  20  30
INL  51  79  49  79 /  60  20  20  40
BRD  50  74  52  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYR  54  71  49  80 /  10  40  20  10
ASX  46  65  45  78 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 260123
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
823 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

DEFORMATION ZONE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NE MN.
PLENTY OF FGEN AS WELL. STATIONARY FRONT OVER NW WI AT 01Z WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 50S NORTH OF
THE FRONT...WITH UPPER 40S RIGHT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS/WEATHER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN THE
BALLPARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UPPER PENINSULA
MICHIGAN AND A COUPLE POTENT SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE SW FORECAST AREA.
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO NW WISCONSIN AND EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE WAS COOL EAST TO NE FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND COOL NE FLOW OVER NE MINNESOTA. A LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN COVERED MOST OF NE MINNESOTA...AND THIS
WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THAT
REGION AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN UPPER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOW 60S OVER NE MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN NW WISCONSIN. THERE
WERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA
BORDER...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE NE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM TO EAST AS THE LOW IN UPPER MICHIGAN LIFTS NE
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORTWAVES LIFT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AND ONTARIO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. THE
RAP13/HRRR/WRF/NAM12 MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD CLIP THE
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IF THE STORMS REACH THAT FAR
NORTH...SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY COULD SEE STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE NORTHLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...AND CONSIDERING
THE MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW MORNING
HEATING SO THE FOG COULD LINGER INTO THE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...THE WEAK LOW AND TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IN NW WISCONSIN. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WRF/SREF/NAM12 MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA WITH THE THE DAYTIME
HEATING. THOSE MODELS HAVE LOW AMOUNTS OF CAPE...SO EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WEAK. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
BECAUSE THE COOL EAST TO NE FLOW FROM THE LAKE WILL LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE LAKE...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IT WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST PART OF LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE SE PORTION
OF THE NW WI FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
NE MN. THERE WILL BE A BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
AREA. ON MONDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT HIB AND INL UNTIL 03Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. INL WILL MAINTAIN ITS VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST. EXPECT -DZ AND BR AT HIB/DLH TO ABOUT 14Z WITH
LIFR/IFR. DLH WILL HAVE VLIFR VSBYS UNTIL 06Z BEFORE VSBYS IMPROVE
TO MVFR...THEN VFR AFTER 14Z. BRD WILL HAVE IFR WITH VCSH/BR UNTIL
04Z THEN -DZ/BR TO 08Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. HYR WILL BE VFR
UNTIL 05Z WITH VCSH. AFTER 05Z -DZ/BR AND MVFR TO NEAR 14Z THEN
VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  48  78 /  60  20  20  30
INL  51  79  49  79 /  60  20  20  40
BRD  50  74  52  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYR  54  71  49  80 /  10  40  20  10
ASX  46  65  45  78 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 260123
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
823 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

DEFORMATION ZONE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NE MN.
PLENTY OF FGEN AS WELL. STATIONARY FRONT OVER NW WI AT 01Z WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 50S NORTH OF
THE FRONT...WITH UPPER 40S RIGHT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS/WEATHER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN THE
BALLPARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UPPER PENINSULA
MICHIGAN AND A COUPLE POTENT SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE SW FORECAST AREA.
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO NW WISCONSIN AND EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE WAS COOL EAST TO NE FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND COOL NE FLOW OVER NE MINNESOTA. A LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN COVERED MOST OF NE MINNESOTA...AND THIS
WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THAT
REGION AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN UPPER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOW 60S OVER NE MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN NW WISCONSIN. THERE
WERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA
BORDER...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE NE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM TO EAST AS THE LOW IN UPPER MICHIGAN LIFTS NE
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORTWAVES LIFT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AND ONTARIO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. THE
RAP13/HRRR/WRF/NAM12 MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD CLIP THE
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IF THE STORMS REACH THAT FAR
NORTH...SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY COULD SEE STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE NORTHLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...AND CONSIDERING
THE MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW MORNING
HEATING SO THE FOG COULD LINGER INTO THE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...THE WEAK LOW AND TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IN NW WISCONSIN. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WRF/SREF/NAM12 MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA WITH THE THE DAYTIME
HEATING. THOSE MODELS HAVE LOW AMOUNTS OF CAPE...SO EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WEAK. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
BECAUSE THE COOL EAST TO NE FLOW FROM THE LAKE WILL LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE LAKE...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IT WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST PART OF LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE SE PORTION
OF THE NW WI FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
NE MN. THERE WILL BE A BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
AREA. ON MONDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT HIB AND INL UNTIL 03Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. INL WILL MAINTAIN ITS VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST. EXPECT -DZ AND BR AT HIB/DLH TO ABOUT 14Z WITH
LIFR/IFR. DLH WILL HAVE VLIFR VSBYS UNTIL 06Z BEFORE VSBYS IMPROVE
TO MVFR...THEN VFR AFTER 14Z. BRD WILL HAVE IFR WITH VCSH/BR UNTIL
04Z THEN -DZ/BR TO 08Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. HYR WILL BE VFR
UNTIL 05Z WITH VCSH. AFTER 05Z -DZ/BR AND MVFR TO NEAR 14Z THEN
VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  48  78 /  60  20  20  30
INL  51  79  49  79 /  60  20  20  40
BRD  50  74  52  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYR  54  71  49  80 /  10  40  20  10
ASX  46  65  45  78 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 260123
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
823 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 823 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

DEFORMATION ZONE LIGHT RAIN CONTINUES NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN NE MN.
PLENTY OF FGEN AS WELL. STATIONARY FRONT OVER NW WI AT 01Z WITH
TEMPS IN THE MID 60S SOUTH OF THE FRONT AND IN THE 50S NORTH OF
THE FRONT...WITH UPPER 40S RIGHT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MADE SOME
MINOR CHANGES TO POPS/WEATHER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...FORECAST IN THE
BALLPARK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UPPER PENINSULA
MICHIGAN AND A COUPLE POTENT SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE SW FORECAST AREA.
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO NW WISCONSIN AND EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE WAS COOL EAST TO NE FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND COOL NE FLOW OVER NE MINNESOTA. A LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN COVERED MOST OF NE MINNESOTA...AND THIS
WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THAT
REGION AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN UPPER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOW 60S OVER NE MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN NW WISCONSIN. THERE
WERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA
BORDER...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE NE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM TO EAST AS THE LOW IN UPPER MICHIGAN LIFTS NE
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORTWAVES LIFT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AND ONTARIO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. THE
RAP13/HRRR/WRF/NAM12 MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD CLIP THE
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IF THE STORMS REACH THAT FAR
NORTH...SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY COULD SEE STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE NORTHLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...AND CONSIDERING
THE MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW MORNING
HEATING SO THE FOG COULD LINGER INTO THE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...THE WEAK LOW AND TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IN NW WISCONSIN. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WRF/SREF/NAM12 MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA WITH THE THE DAYTIME
HEATING. THOSE MODELS HAVE LOW AMOUNTS OF CAPE...SO EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WEAK. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
BECAUSE THE COOL EAST TO NE FLOW FROM THE LAKE WILL LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE LAKE...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IT WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST PART OF LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE SE PORTION
OF THE NW WI FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
NE MN. THERE WILL BE A BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
AREA. ON MONDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT HIB AND INL UNTIL 03Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. INL WILL MAINTAIN ITS VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST. EXPECT -DZ AND BR AT HIB/DLH TO ABOUT 14Z WITH
LIFR/IFR. DLH WILL HAVE VLIFR VSBYS UNTIL 06Z BEFORE VSBYS IMPROVE
TO MVFR...THEN VFR AFTER 14Z. BRD WILL HAVE IFR WITH VCSH/BR UNTIL
04Z THEN -DZ/BR TO 08Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. HYR WILL BE VFR
UNTIL 05Z WITH VCSH. AFTER 05Z -DZ/BR AND MVFR TO NEAR 14Z THEN
VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  48  78 /  60  20  20  30
INL  51  79  49  79 /  60  20  20  40
BRD  50  74  52  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYR  54  71  49  80 /  10  40  20  10
ASX  46  65  45  78 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 252324
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
624 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UPPER PENINSULA
MICHIGAN AND A COUPLE POTENT SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE SW FORECAST AREA.
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO NW WISCONSIN AND EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE WAS COOL EAST TO NE FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND COOL NE FLOW OVER NE MINNESOTA. A LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN COVERED MOST OF NE MINNESOTA...AND THIS
WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THAT
REGION AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN UPPER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOW 60S OVER NE MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN NW WISCONSIN. THERE
WERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA
BORDER...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE NE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM TO EAST AS THE LOW IN UPPER MICHIGAN LIFTS NE
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORTWAVES LIFT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AND ONTARIO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. THE
RAP13/HRRR/WRF/NAM12 MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD CLIP THE
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IF THE STORMS REACH THAT FAR
NORTH...SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY COULD SEE STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE NORTHLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...AND CONSIDERING
THE MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW MORNING
HEATING SO THE FOG COULD LINGER INTO THE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...THE WEAK LOW AND TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IN NW WISCONSIN. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WRF/SREF/NAM12 MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA WITH THE THE DAYTIME
HEATING. THOSE MODELS HAVE LOW AMOUNTS OF CAPE...SO EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WEAK. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
BECAUSE THE COOL EAST TO NE FLOW FROM THE LAKE WILL LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE LAKE...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IT WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST PART OF LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE SE PORTION
OF THE NW WI FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
NE MN. THERE WILL BE A BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
AREA. ON MONDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT HIB AND INL UNTIL 03Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. INL WILL MAINTAIN ITS VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST. EXPECT -DZ AND BR AT HIB/DLH TO ABOUT 14Z WITH
LIFR/IFR. DLH WILL HAVE VLIFR VSBYS UNTIL 06Z BEFORE VSBYS IMPROVE
TO MVFR...THEN VFR AFTER 14Z. BRD WILL HAVE IFR WITH VCSH/BR UNTIL
04Z THEN -DZ/BR TO 08Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. HYR WILL BE VFR
UNTIL 05Z WITH VCSH. AFTER 05Z -DZ/BR AND MVFR TO NEAR 14Z THEN
VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  48  78 /  60  20  20  30
INL  51  79  49  79 /  40  20  20  40
BRD  50  74  52  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYR  54  71  49  80 /  20  40  20  10
ASX  46  65  45  78 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...GSF









000
FXUS63 KDLH 252324
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
624 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UPPER PENINSULA
MICHIGAN AND A COUPLE POTENT SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE SW FORECAST AREA.
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO NW WISCONSIN AND EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE WAS COOL EAST TO NE FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND COOL NE FLOW OVER NE MINNESOTA. A LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN COVERED MOST OF NE MINNESOTA...AND THIS
WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THAT
REGION AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN UPPER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOW 60S OVER NE MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN NW WISCONSIN. THERE
WERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA
BORDER...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE NE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM TO EAST AS THE LOW IN UPPER MICHIGAN LIFTS NE
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORTWAVES LIFT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AND ONTARIO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. THE
RAP13/HRRR/WRF/NAM12 MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD CLIP THE
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IF THE STORMS REACH THAT FAR
NORTH...SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY COULD SEE STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE NORTHLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...AND CONSIDERING
THE MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW MORNING
HEATING SO THE FOG COULD LINGER INTO THE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...THE WEAK LOW AND TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IN NW WISCONSIN. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WRF/SREF/NAM12 MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA WITH THE THE DAYTIME
HEATING. THOSE MODELS HAVE LOW AMOUNTS OF CAPE...SO EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WEAK. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
BECAUSE THE COOL EAST TO NE FLOW FROM THE LAKE WILL LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE LAKE...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IT WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST PART OF LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE SE PORTION
OF THE NW WI FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
NE MN. THERE WILL BE A BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
AREA. ON MONDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 624 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AREA OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT HIB AND INL UNTIL 03Z
BEFORE DIMINISHING. INL WILL MAINTAIN ITS VFR THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST. EXPECT -DZ AND BR AT HIB/DLH TO ABOUT 14Z WITH
LIFR/IFR. DLH WILL HAVE VLIFR VSBYS UNTIL 06Z BEFORE VSBYS IMPROVE
TO MVFR...THEN VFR AFTER 14Z. BRD WILL HAVE IFR WITH VCSH/BR UNTIL
04Z THEN -DZ/BR TO 08Z BEFORE IMPROVING TO VFR. HYR WILL BE VFR
UNTIL 05Z WITH VCSH. AFTER 05Z -DZ/BR AND MVFR TO NEAR 14Z THEN
VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  48  78 /  60  20  20  30
INL  51  79  49  79 /  40  20  20  40
BRD  50  74  52  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYR  54  71  49  80 /  20  40  20  10
ASX  46  65  45  78 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 252008
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UPPER PENINSULA
MICHIGAN AND A COUPLE POTENT SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE SW FORECAST AREA.
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO NW WISCONSIN AND EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE WAS COOL EAST TO NE FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND COOL NE FLOW OVER NE MINNESOTA. A LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN COVERED MOST OF NE MINNESOTA...AND THIS
WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THAT
REGION AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN UPPER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOW 60S OVER NE MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN NW WISCONSIN. THERE
WERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA
BORDER...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE NE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM TO EAST AS THE LOW IN UPPER MICHIGAN LIFTS NE
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORTWAVES LIFT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AND ONTARIO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. THE
RAP13/HRRR/WRF/NAM12 MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD CLIP THE
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IF THE STORMS REACH THAT FAR
NORTH...SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY COULD SEE STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE NORTHLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...AND CONSIDERING
THE MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW MORNING
HEATING SO THE FOG COULD LINGER INTO THE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...THE WEAK LOW AND TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IN NW WISCONSIN. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WRF/SREF/NAM12 MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA WITH THE THE DAYTIME
HEATING. THOSE MODELS HAVE LOW AMOUNTS OF CAPE...SO EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WEAK. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
BECAUSE THE COOL EAST TO NE FLOW FROM THE LAKE WILL LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE LAKE...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IT WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST PART OF LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE SE PORTION
OF THE NW WI FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
NE MN. THERE WILL BE A BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
AREA. ON MONDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAINLY IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAFS SITES EXCEPT INL DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR BREAKS BUT IT WILL STAY IFR
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT INL...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TO MVFR WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO IFR BY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  48  78 /  60  20  20  30
INL  51  79  49  79 /  40  20  20  40
BRD  50  74  52  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYR  54  71  49  80 /  20  40  20  10
ASX  46  65  45  78 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 252008
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER UPPER PENINSULA
MICHIGAN AND A COUPLE POTENT SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH NE
MINNESOTA...NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF
MICHIGAN. ANOTHER WEAK LOW WAS CENTERED NEAR THE SW FORECAST AREA.
AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT HAD LIFTED INTO NW WISCONSIN AND EAST
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THERE WAS COOL EAST TO NE FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND COOL NE FLOW OVER NE MINNESOTA. A LARGE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN COVERED MOST OF NE MINNESOTA...AND THIS
WAS PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THAT
REGION AND THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN UPPER MICHIGAN. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO
LOW 60S OVER NE MINNESOTA AND PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...AND THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT IN NW WISCONSIN. THERE
WERE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND IOWA
BORDER...GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE NE.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...THE SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM TO EAST AS THE LOW IN UPPER MICHIGAN LIFTS NE
THROUGH LAKE SUPERIOR AND THE SHORTWAVES LIFT INTO LAKE SUPERIOR
AND ONTARIO. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE...BUT BECOME LESS PRONOUNCED. THE
RAP13/HRRR/WRF/NAM12 MODELS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORMS COULD CLIP THE
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. IF THE STORMS REACH THAT FAR
NORTH...SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY COULD SEE STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL
HAIL.

LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...A TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
OVER THE NORTHLAND WITH A WEAK SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
FORECAST AREA. THERE WILL VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS...AND CONSIDERING
THE MOISTURE FROM THE RECENT RAINS...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. HIGH CLOUD COVER WILL SLOW MORNING
HEATING SO THE FOG COULD LINGER INTO THE HOURS AFTER SUNRISE.

TUESDAY...THE WEAK LOW AND TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. A COUPLE SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...AND THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH IN NW WISCONSIN. ANOTHER LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST THROUGH
SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO...AND ITS TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
WRF/SREF/NAM12 MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF NE MINNESOTA WITH THE THE DAYTIME
HEATING. THOSE MODELS HAVE LOW AMOUNTS OF CAPE...SO EXPECTING
STORMS TO BE WEAK. DID NOT INCLUDE THUNDER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
BECAUSE THE COOL EAST TO NE FLOW FROM THE LAKE WILL LIMIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF INSTABILITY NEAR THE LAKE...AT LEAST THROUGH THE
LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

IT WILL BE UNSETTLED FOR THE FIRST PART OF LONG TERM PERIOD. THE
PRECIPITATION FROM TUESDAY WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE SE PORTION
OF THE NW WI FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...A
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2 IN
NE MN. THERE WILL BE A BREAK WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE A STRONGER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY MORNING AND SPREAD EAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY NIGHT AND BEGIN TO TAPER OFF ON FRIDAY AS
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND HELPING TO DRY OUT THE
AREA. ON MONDAY...A FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST
AREA SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN AREAS BY MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAINLY IFR-LIFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAFS SITES EXCEPT INL DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDITIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO
THE REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR BREAKS BUT IT WILL STAY IFR
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT INL...CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR TO MVFR WITH
CONDITIONS DROPPING TO IFR BY THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  48  78 /  60  20  20  30
INL  51  79  49  79 /  40  20  20  40
BRD  50  74  52  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYR  54  71  49  80 /  20  40  20  10
ASX  46  65  45  78 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART







000
FXUS63 KDLH 251919
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
219 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

***18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM***

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
NW WISCONSIN.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH A PRECEDING SFC
LOW LIFTING TO THE NE INTO SRN MN. BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM AN
EMBEDDED S/W COMBINED WITH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN HAVE BEEN THE
PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS PRODUCING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SFC LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE TODAY AND AS THE UPPER LOW CATCHES
UP FROM THE WEST...AN ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NRN/NERN MN AND ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION. HAVE SEEN REPORTS OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH SO FAR THIS MORNING. MAINLY
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE AND KEEP THE PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF STRATIFORM RAIN TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA LATER TODAY...BUT ALSO KEEP A TRAILING TROUGH/COLD
FRONT BEHIND ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND KEEP THE RAIN
SHOWERS GOING INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT ON THE NRN EDGE OF APPROACHING INVERTED
TROUGH. THIS INCOMING TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
OVER NW WI TUE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S. THE COOLEST AIR WILL BE FOUND AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE A NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. WARMER AIR WILL BE FOUND AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH
MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND
50S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS TO THE EAST UNDER THE CLOUD COVER...AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TO THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD WILL START OUT A BIT UNSETTLED...BUT WILL
TRANSITION TOWARD A MAINLY DRY PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL EXIT THE NORTHLAND ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THERE
WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR EXTREME WEST LATE IN THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE MOST ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE ON THE
DRY SIDE. THE GFS DOES BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS DRY. TENDENCY AT
THIS POINT IS TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING RIGHT AROUND 80. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAINLY IFR-LIFR CONDTIONS AT ALL TAFS SITES EXCEPT INL DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDTIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR BREAKS BUT IT WILL STAY IFR
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT INL...CONDTIONS WIL BE VFR TO MVFR WITH
CONDTIONS DROPPING TO IFR BY THIS EVENING. CONDTION S WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  48  78 /  60  20  20  30
INL  51  79  49  79 /  40  20  20  40
BRD  50  74  52  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYR  54  71  49  80 /  20  40  20  10
ASX  46  65  45  78 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 251919
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
219 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

***18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM***

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
NW WISCONSIN.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH A PRECEDING SFC
LOW LIFTING TO THE NE INTO SRN MN. BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM AN
EMBEDDED S/W COMBINED WITH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN HAVE BEEN THE
PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS PRODUCING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SFC LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE TODAY AND AS THE UPPER LOW CATCHES
UP FROM THE WEST...AN ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NRN/NERN MN AND ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION. HAVE SEEN REPORTS OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH SO FAR THIS MORNING. MAINLY
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE AND KEEP THE PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF STRATIFORM RAIN TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA LATER TODAY...BUT ALSO KEEP A TRAILING TROUGH/COLD
FRONT BEHIND ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND KEEP THE RAIN
SHOWERS GOING INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT ON THE NRN EDGE OF APPROACHING INVERTED
TROUGH. THIS INCOMING TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
OVER NW WI TUE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S. THE COOLEST AIR WILL BE FOUND AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE A NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. WARMER AIR WILL BE FOUND AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH
MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND
50S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS TO THE EAST UNDER THE CLOUD COVER...AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TO THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD WILL START OUT A BIT UNSETTLED...BUT WILL
TRANSITION TOWARD A MAINLY DRY PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL EXIT THE NORTHLAND ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THERE
WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR EXTREME WEST LATE IN THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE MOST ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE ON THE
DRY SIDE. THE GFS DOES BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS DRY. TENDENCY AT
THIS POINT IS TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING RIGHT AROUND 80. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 215 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

MAINLY IFR-LIFR CONDTIONS AT ALL TAFS SITES EXCEPT INL DUE TO LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG. CONDTIONS WILL NOT IMPROVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT AND WILL IMPROVE TUESDAY MORNING AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR BREAKS BUT IT WILL STAY IFR
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. AT INL...CONDTIONS WIL BE VFR TO MVFR WITH
CONDTIONS DROPPING TO IFR BY THIS EVENING. CONDTION S WILL IMPROVE
TO VFR TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  48  78 /  60  20  20  30
INL  51  79  49  79 /  40  20  20  40
BRD  50  74  52  81 /  30  10  10  10
HYR  54  71  49  80 /  20  40  20  10
ASX  46  65  45  78 /  30  30  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...STEWART









000
FXUS63 KDLH 251247
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
747 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
NW WISCONSIN.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH A PRECEDING SFC
LOW LIFTING TO THE NE INTO SRN MN. BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM AN
EMBEDDED S/W COMBINED WITH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN HAVE BEEN THE
PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS PRODUCING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SFC LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE TODAY AND AS THE UPPER LOW CATCHES
UP FROM THE WEST...AN ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NRN/NERN MN AND ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION. HAVE SEEN REPORTS OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH SO FAR THIS MORNING. MAINLY
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE AND KEEP THE PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF STRATIFORM RAIN TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA LATER TODAY...BUT ALSO KEEP A TRAILING TROUGH/COLD
FRONT BEHIND ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND KEEP THE RAIN
SHOWERS GOING INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT ON THE NRN EDGE OF APPROACHING INVERTED
TROUGH. THIS INCOMING TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
OVER NW WI TUE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S. THE COOLEST AIR WILL BE FOUND AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE A NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. WARMER AIR WILL BE FOUND AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH
MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND
50S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS TO THE EAST UNDER THE CLOUD COVER...AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TO THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD WILL START OUT A BIT UNSETTLED...BUT WILL
TRANSITION TOWARD A MAINLY DRY PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL EXIT THE NORTHLAND ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THERE
WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR EXTREME WEST LATE IN THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE MOST ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE ON THE
DRY SIDE. THE GFS DOES BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS DRY. TENDENCY AT
THIS POINT IS TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING RIGHT AROUND 80. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TO THE NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM
VFR AT KINL TO IFR/LIFR AT KDLH...KBRD AND KHYR. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  49  68  48 /  90  50  20  20
INL  72  49  79  49 /  30  30  20  20
BRD  61  50  72  52 /  90  50  10  10
HYR  64  51  69  49 /  90  40  40  40
ASX  55  47  65  45 /  90  40  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 251247
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
747 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
NW WISCONSIN.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH A PRECEDING SFC
LOW LIFTING TO THE NE INTO SRN MN. BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM AN
EMBEDDED S/W COMBINED WITH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN HAVE BEEN THE
PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS PRODUCING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SFC LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE TODAY AND AS THE UPPER LOW CATCHES
UP FROM THE WEST...AN ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NRN/NERN MN AND ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION. HAVE SEEN REPORTS OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH SO FAR THIS MORNING. MAINLY
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE AND KEEP THE PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF STRATIFORM RAIN TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA LATER TODAY...BUT ALSO KEEP A TRAILING TROUGH/COLD
FRONT BEHIND ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND KEEP THE RAIN
SHOWERS GOING INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT ON THE NRN EDGE OF APPROACHING INVERTED
TROUGH. THIS INCOMING TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
OVER NW WI TUE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S. THE COOLEST AIR WILL BE FOUND AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE A NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. WARMER AIR WILL BE FOUND AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH
MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND
50S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS TO THE EAST UNDER THE CLOUD COVER...AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TO THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD WILL START OUT A BIT UNSETTLED...BUT WILL
TRANSITION TOWARD A MAINLY DRY PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL EXIT THE NORTHLAND ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THERE
WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR EXTREME WEST LATE IN THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE MOST ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE ON THE
DRY SIDE. THE GFS DOES BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS DRY. TENDENCY AT
THIS POINT IS TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING RIGHT AROUND 80. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 746 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE
TO THE NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. CIGS WILL RANGE FROM
VFR AT KINL TO IFR/LIFR AT KDLH...KBRD AND KHYR. THESE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
NORTH LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  49  68  48 /  90  50  20  20
INL  72  49  79  49 /  30  30  20  20
BRD  61  50  72  52 /  90  50  10  10
HYR  64  51  69  49 /  90  40  40  40
ASX  55  47  65  45 /  90  40  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP









000
FXUS63 KDLH 250905
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
405 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WIDESPREAD LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING AND WILL BE THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION IN THE SHORT TERM
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER
NW WISCONSIN.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO
THE PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH A PRECEDING SFC
LOW LIFTING TO THE NE INTO SRN MN. BROAD LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM AN
EMBEDDED S/W COMBINED WITH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL F-GEN HAVE BEEN THE
PRIMARY FORCING MECHANISMS PRODUCING THE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE SFC LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE NE TODAY AND AS THE UPPER LOW CATCHES
UP FROM THE WEST...AN ENHANCED AREA OF PRECIP WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE DEFORMATION ZONE OVER NRN/NERN MN AND ALLOW FOR AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OF RAINFALL TO OCCUR OVER THE REGION. HAVE SEEN REPORTS OF A
THIRD TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH SO FAR THIS MORNING. MAINLY
SOUTH OF U.S. HIGHWAY 2.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY STABLE AND KEEP THE PRECIP IN THE
FORM OF STRATIFORM RAIN TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE
OUT OF THE AREA LATER TODAY...BUT ALSO KEEP A TRAILING TROUGH/COLD
FRONT BEHIND ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR TONIGHT AND KEEP THE RAIN
SHOWERS GOING INTO THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT ON THE NRN EDGE OF APPROACHING INVERTED
TROUGH. THIS INCOMING TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND BRUSH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN SHOWERS
AND EVEN A FEW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE
OVER NW WI TUE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE
50S AND 60S. THE COOLEST AIR WILL BE FOUND AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE A NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP CONDITIONS IN THE LOW
TO MID 50S. WARMER AIR WILL BE FOUND AWAY FROM THE LAKE...WITH
MAINLY MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO THE 40S AND
50S. HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S AND 70S...WITH THE
COOLER TEMPS TO THE EAST UNDER THE CLOUD COVER...AND SLIGHTLY
WARMER TO THE WEST WHERE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD WILL START OUT A BIT UNSETTLED...BUT WILL
TRANSITION TOWARD A MAINLY DRY PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE
WILL EXIT THE NORTHLAND ON TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON...AS THERE
WILL BE SOME INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE A MAINLY DRY PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL ALREADY BE ADVANCING INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO OUR EXTREME WEST LATE IN THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE RED RIVER VALLEY. THIS CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE CWA ON THURSDAY...BUT
THE MOST ORGANIZED AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY. WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...IT IS LOOKING LIKE THE WEEKEND SHOULD BE ON THE
DRY SIDE. THE GFS DOES BRING FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION INTO
THE SE HALF OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY...BUT THE ECMWF IS DRY. TENDENCY AT
THIS POINT IS TO SIDE WITH THE ECMWF DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE HIGH
OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WEDNESDAY IS LOOKING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF
THE WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING RIGHT AROUND 80. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO THE 60S
TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS FOR KDLH...KBRD...AND KHYR CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO
IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AS AN AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO
SPREAD UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. KHIB TO BE ON THE EDGES OF
THE LOWER CEILINGS...AND SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN MVFR. WIDESPREAD IFR
CEILINGS...ONCE THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFTER 21Z
TO MVFR FOR KBRD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  49  68  48 /  90  50  20  20
INL  72  49  79  49 /  30  30  20  20
BRD  61  50  72  52 /  90  50  10  10
HYR  64  51  69  49 /  90  40  40  40
ASX  55  47  65  45 /  90  40  40  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 250528
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1228 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE
LATEST TRENDS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FOR THE
NORTHLAND. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MONDAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS
LATEST FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE LATEST RAP13/NAM12/SREF/GFS INDICATE VERY LITTLE OR NO SUPPORT
TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE MODELS
HAVE VERY LITTLE OR NO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. THE MODELS DO HAVE A
LITTLE CAPE NEAR THE PRICE COUNTY AREA IN NW WISCONSIN FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN...SO KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THAT AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
INTO THE MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF ENHANCED BANDING DUE TO THE FGEN BANDING.
THE RAP13 AND NAM12 ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL FGEN BANDING MOVING
INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY GET
ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER
TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE SATURATION FROM THE RAIN AND THE
HUMID, UP-SLOPE FLOW FROM THE LAKE COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AS
A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE SAME REGION. THE LOW WILL
LIKELY PASS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE SE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A COOL AND
RAINY DAY WITH EAST TO NE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING
LOW. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO
FULL INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME OF MONDAY. THE FAR NW
FORECAST AREA WILL MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE RAIN, ESPECIALLY
KOOCHICHING COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER IN THE NW
FORECAST AREA DUE TO LESS RAIN AND THE WIND NOT ORIGINATING FROM
LEAK SUPERIOR. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW CAPE VALUES FOR THE
SE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID WEEK...THEN SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH A SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN. WE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO POPS DURING THIS TIME. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA MONDAY EVENING IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF AS
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN WILL BE OVER THAT AREA. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND WE TRENDED THAT WAY.

A SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI/SOUTHEAST MN BY
00Z WED AND THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON AN AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING
NORTH OF THE LOW. WE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAVE A CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW AND
ADDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RIDE THROUGH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE HAVE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE NORTHLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. WE RAMP UP POPS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THAT.
NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE TRICKY AS CLOUDS/PRECIP
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THEM. WE WENT WARMEST TUESDAY OVER
WESTERN AREAS...AND COOLEST OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WEDNESDAY
COULD BE WARM IF WE GET SOME SUNSHINE. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND 80. HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS FOR KDLH...KBRD...AND KHYR CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO
IFR CIELINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AS AN AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO
SPREAD UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. KHIB TO BE ON THE EDGES OF
THE LOWER CEILINGS...AND SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN MVFR. WIDEPSREAD IFR
CEILINGS...ONCE THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFTER 21Z
TO MVFR FOR KBRD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  71  49  77 /  60  40  20  30
INL  48  78  50  80 /  40  30  20  40
BRD  50  75  52  80 /  50  20  10  10
HYR  52  71  51  78 /  30  50  40  10
ASX  50  69  48  76 /  40  60  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 250528
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1228 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE
LATEST TRENDS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FOR THE
NORTHLAND. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MONDAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS
LATEST FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE LATEST RAP13/NAM12/SREF/GFS INDICATE VERY LITTLE OR NO SUPPORT
TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE MODELS
HAVE VERY LITTLE OR NO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. THE MODELS DO HAVE A
LITTLE CAPE NEAR THE PRICE COUNTY AREA IN NW WISCONSIN FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN...SO KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THAT AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
INTO THE MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF ENHANCED BANDING DUE TO THE FGEN BANDING.
THE RAP13 AND NAM12 ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL FGEN BANDING MOVING
INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY GET
ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER
TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE SATURATION FROM THE RAIN AND THE
HUMID, UP-SLOPE FLOW FROM THE LAKE COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AS
A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE SAME REGION. THE LOW WILL
LIKELY PASS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE SE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A COOL AND
RAINY DAY WITH EAST TO NE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING
LOW. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO
FULL INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME OF MONDAY. THE FAR NW
FORECAST AREA WILL MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE RAIN, ESPECIALLY
KOOCHICHING COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER IN THE NW
FORECAST AREA DUE TO LESS RAIN AND THE WIND NOT ORIGINATING FROM
LEAK SUPERIOR. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW CAPE VALUES FOR THE
SE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID WEEK...THEN SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH A SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN. WE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO POPS DURING THIS TIME. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA MONDAY EVENING IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF AS
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN WILL BE OVER THAT AREA. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND WE TRENDED THAT WAY.

A SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI/SOUTHEAST MN BY
00Z WED AND THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON AN AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING
NORTH OF THE LOW. WE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAVE A CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW AND
ADDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RIDE THROUGH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE HAVE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE NORTHLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. WE RAMP UP POPS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THAT.
NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE TRICKY AS CLOUDS/PRECIP
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THEM. WE WENT WARMEST TUESDAY OVER
WESTERN AREAS...AND COOLEST OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WEDNESDAY
COULD BE WARM IF WE GET SOME SUNSHINE. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND 80. HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS FOR KDLH...KBRD...AND KHYR CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO
IFR CIELINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AS AN AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO
SPREAD UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. KHIB TO BE ON THE EDGES OF
THE LOWER CEILINGS...AND SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN MVFR. WIDEPSREAD IFR
CEILINGS...ONCE THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFTER 21Z
TO MVFR FOR KBRD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  71  49  77 /  60  40  20  30
INL  48  78  50  80 /  40  30  20  40
BRD  50  75  52  80 /  50  20  10  10
HYR  52  71  51  78 /  30  50  40  10
ASX  50  69  48  76 /  40  60  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 250528
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1228 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE
LATEST TRENDS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FOR THE
NORTHLAND. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MONDAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS
LATEST FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE LATEST RAP13/NAM12/SREF/GFS INDICATE VERY LITTLE OR NO SUPPORT
TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE MODELS
HAVE VERY LITTLE OR NO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. THE MODELS DO HAVE A
LITTLE CAPE NEAR THE PRICE COUNTY AREA IN NW WISCONSIN FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN...SO KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THAT AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
INTO THE MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF ENHANCED BANDING DUE TO THE FGEN BANDING.
THE RAP13 AND NAM12 ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL FGEN BANDING MOVING
INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY GET
ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER
TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE SATURATION FROM THE RAIN AND THE
HUMID, UP-SLOPE FLOW FROM THE LAKE COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AS
A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE SAME REGION. THE LOW WILL
LIKELY PASS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE SE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A COOL AND
RAINY DAY WITH EAST TO NE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING
LOW. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO
FULL INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME OF MONDAY. THE FAR NW
FORECAST AREA WILL MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE RAIN, ESPECIALLY
KOOCHICHING COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER IN THE NW
FORECAST AREA DUE TO LESS RAIN AND THE WIND NOT ORIGINATING FROM
LEAK SUPERIOR. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW CAPE VALUES FOR THE
SE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID WEEK...THEN SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH A SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN. WE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO POPS DURING THIS TIME. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA MONDAY EVENING IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF AS
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN WILL BE OVER THAT AREA. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND WE TRENDED THAT WAY.

A SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI/SOUTHEAST MN BY
00Z WED AND THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON AN AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING
NORTH OF THE LOW. WE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAVE A CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW AND
ADDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RIDE THROUGH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE HAVE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE NORTHLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. WE RAMP UP POPS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THAT.
NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE TRICKY AS CLOUDS/PRECIP
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THEM. WE WENT WARMEST TUESDAY OVER
WESTERN AREAS...AND COOLEST OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WEDNESDAY
COULD BE WARM IF WE GET SOME SUNSHINE. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND 80. HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

CONDITIONS FOR KDLH...KBRD...AND KHYR CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TO
IFR CIELINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES AS AN AREA OF RAIN CONTINUES TO
SPREAD UP INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. KHIB TO BE ON THE EDGES OF
THE LOWER CEILINGS...AND SHOULD MAINLY REMAIN MVFR. WIDEPSREAD IFR
CEILINGS...ONCE THEY DEVELOP...SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD...WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT AFTER 21Z
TO MVFR FOR KBRD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  71  49  77 /  60  40  20  30
INL  48  78  50  80 /  40  30  20  40
BRD  50  75  52  80 /  50  20  10  10
HYR  52  71  51  78 /  30  50  40  10
ASX  50  69  48  76 /  40  60  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ142>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 242349
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE
LATEST TRENDS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FOR THE
NORTHLAND. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MONDAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS
LATEST FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE LATEST RAP13/NAM12/SREF/GFS INDICATE VERY LITTLE OR NO SUPPORT
TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE MODELS
HAVE VERY LITTLE OR NO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. THE MODELS DO HAVE A
LITTLE CAPE NEAR THE PRICE COUNTY AREA IN NW WISCONSIN FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN...SO KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THAT AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
INTO THE MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF ENHANCED BANDING DUE TO THE FGEN BANDING.
THE RAP13 AND NAM12 ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL FGEN BANDING MOVING
INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY GET
ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER
TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE SATURATION FROM THE RAIN AND THE
HUMID, UP-SLOPE FLOW FROM THE LAKE COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AS
A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE SAME REGION. THE LOW WILL
LIKELY PASS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE SE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A COOL AND
RAINY DAY WITH EAST TO NE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING
LOW. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO
FULL INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME OF MONDAY. THE FAR NW
FORECAST AREA WILL MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE RAIN, ESPECIALLY
KOOCHICHING COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER IN THE NW
FORECAST AREA DUE TO LESS RAIN AND THE WIND NOT ORIGINATING FROM
LEAK SUPERIOR. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW CAPE VALUES FOR THE
SE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID WEEK...THEN SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH A SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN. WE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO POPS DURING THIS TIME. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA MONDAY EVENING IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF AS
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN WILL BE OVER THAT AREA. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND WE TRENDED THAT WAY.

A SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI/SOUTHEAST MN BY
00Z WED AND THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON AN AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING
NORTH OF THE LOW. WE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAVE A CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW AND
ADDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RIDE THROUGH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE HAVE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE NORTHLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. WE RAMP UP POPS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THAT.
NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE TRICKY AS CLOUDS/PRECIP
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THEM. WE WENT WARMEST TUESDAY OVER
WESTERN AREAS...AND COOLEST OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WEDNESDAY
COULD BE WARM IF WE GET SOME SUNSHINE. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND 80. HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CURRENT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DETERIORATE THROUGH 06Z
THIS EVENING AS RAIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH...BUT ONLY GETTING AS FAR
NORTH AS KHIB...LEAVING KINL VFR. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH CEILINGS CONTINUING TO LOWER...AND KDLH
MAY DROP INTO LIFR AT TIMES. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AT KBRD
AFTER 21Z...BUT NOT BETTER THAN MVFR. KHYR TO ALSO IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES AND ALLOWS CEILINGS TO RISE TO
MVFR AND RAIN BECOMES MORE SHOWERY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  58  49  71 /  80  90  60  40
INL  49  72  48  78 /  10  40  40  30
BRD  54  63  50  75 /  80  90  50  20
HYR  55  61  52  71 /  80  90  30  50
ASX  49  56  50  69 /  80  90  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE










000
FXUS63 KDLH 242349
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE
LATEST TRENDS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FOR THE
NORTHLAND. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MONDAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS
LATEST FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE LATEST RAP13/NAM12/SREF/GFS INDICATE VERY LITTLE OR NO SUPPORT
TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE MODELS
HAVE VERY LITTLE OR NO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. THE MODELS DO HAVE A
LITTLE CAPE NEAR THE PRICE COUNTY AREA IN NW WISCONSIN FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN...SO KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THAT AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
INTO THE MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF ENHANCED BANDING DUE TO THE FGEN BANDING.
THE RAP13 AND NAM12 ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL FGEN BANDING MOVING
INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY GET
ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER
TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE SATURATION FROM THE RAIN AND THE
HUMID, UP-SLOPE FLOW FROM THE LAKE COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AS
A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE SAME REGION. THE LOW WILL
LIKELY PASS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE SE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A COOL AND
RAINY DAY WITH EAST TO NE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING
LOW. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO
FULL INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME OF MONDAY. THE FAR NW
FORECAST AREA WILL MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE RAIN, ESPECIALLY
KOOCHICHING COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER IN THE NW
FORECAST AREA DUE TO LESS RAIN AND THE WIND NOT ORIGINATING FROM
LEAK SUPERIOR. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW CAPE VALUES FOR THE
SE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID WEEK...THEN SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH A SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN. WE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO POPS DURING THIS TIME. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA MONDAY EVENING IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF AS
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN WILL BE OVER THAT AREA. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND WE TRENDED THAT WAY.

A SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI/SOUTHEAST MN BY
00Z WED AND THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON AN AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING
NORTH OF THE LOW. WE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAVE A CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW AND
ADDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RIDE THROUGH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE HAVE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE NORTHLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. WE RAMP UP POPS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THAT.
NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE TRICKY AS CLOUDS/PRECIP
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THEM. WE WENT WARMEST TUESDAY OVER
WESTERN AREAS...AND COOLEST OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WEDNESDAY
COULD BE WARM IF WE GET SOME SUNSHINE. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND 80. HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CURRENT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DETERIORATE THROUGH 06Z
THIS EVENING AS RAIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH...BUT ONLY GETTING AS FAR
NORTH AS KHIB...LEAVING KINL VFR. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH CEILINGS CONTINUING TO LOWER...AND KDLH
MAY DROP INTO LIFR AT TIMES. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AT KBRD
AFTER 21Z...BUT NOT BETTER THAN MVFR. KHYR TO ALSO IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES AND ALLOWS CEILINGS TO RISE TO
MVFR AND RAIN BECOMES MORE SHOWERY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  58  49  71 /  80  90  60  40
INL  49  72  48  78 /  10  40  40  30
BRD  54  63  50  75 /  80  90  50  20
HYR  55  61  52  71 /  80  90  30  50
ASX  49  56  50  69 /  80  90  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE










000
FXUS63 KDLH 242349
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP THE
LATEST TRENDS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FOR THE
NORTHLAND. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MONDAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS
LATEST FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE LATEST RAP13/NAM12/SREF/GFS INDICATE VERY LITTLE OR NO SUPPORT
TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE MODELS
HAVE VERY LITTLE OR NO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. THE MODELS DO HAVE A
LITTLE CAPE NEAR THE PRICE COUNTY AREA IN NW WISCONSIN FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN...SO KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THAT AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
INTO THE MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF ENHANCED BANDING DUE TO THE FGEN BANDING.
THE RAP13 AND NAM12 ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL FGEN BANDING MOVING
INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY GET
ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER
TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE SATURATION FROM THE RAIN AND THE
HUMID, UP-SLOPE FLOW FROM THE LAKE COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AS
A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE SAME REGION. THE LOW WILL
LIKELY PASS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE SE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A COOL AND
RAINY DAY WITH EAST TO NE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING
LOW. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO
FULL INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME OF MONDAY. THE FAR NW
FORECAST AREA WILL MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE RAIN, ESPECIALLY
KOOCHICHING COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER IN THE NW
FORECAST AREA DUE TO LESS RAIN AND THE WIND NOT ORIGINATING FROM
LEAK SUPERIOR. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW CAPE VALUES FOR THE
SE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID WEEK...THEN SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH A SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN. WE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO POPS DURING THIS TIME. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA MONDAY EVENING IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF AS
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN WILL BE OVER THAT AREA. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND WE TRENDED THAT WAY.

A SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI/SOUTHEAST MN BY
00Z WED AND THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON AN AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING
NORTH OF THE LOW. WE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAVE A CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW AND
ADDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RIDE THROUGH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE HAVE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE NORTHLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. WE RAMP UP POPS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THAT.
NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE TRICKY AS CLOUDS/PRECIP
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THEM. WE WENT WARMEST TUESDAY OVER
WESTERN AREAS...AND COOLEST OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WEDNESDAY
COULD BE WARM IF WE GET SOME SUNSHINE. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND 80. HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CURRENT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DETERIORATE THROUGH 06Z
THIS EVENING AS RAIN WITH IFR CEILINGS AND MVFR VISIBILITIES
OVERSPREAD THE TERMINALS FROM THE SOUTH...BUT ONLY GETTING AS FAR
NORTH AS KHIB...LEAVING KINL VFR. IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH CEILINGS CONTINUING TO LOWER...AND KDLH
MAY DROP INTO LIFR AT TIMES. SLOW IMPROVEMENT EXPECTED AT KBRD
AFTER 21Z...BUT NOT BETTER THAN MVFR. KHYR TO ALSO IMPROVE
SOMEWHAT AS DRY SLOT APPROACHES AND ALLOWS CEILINGS TO RISE TO
MVFR AND RAIN BECOMES MORE SHOWERY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  58  49  71 /  80  90  60  40
INL  49  72  48  78 /  10  40  40  30
BRD  54  63  50  75 /  80  90  50  20
HYR  55  61  52  71 /  80  90  30  50
ASX  49  56  50  69 /  80  90  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 242025
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FOR THE
NORTHLAND. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MONDAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS
LATEST FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE LATEST RAP13/NAM12/SREF/GFS INDICATE VERY LITTLE OR NO SUPPORT
TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE MODELS
HAVE VERY LITTLE OR NO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. THE MODELS DO HAVE A
LITTLE CAPE NEAR THE PRICE COUNTY AREA IN NW WISCONSIN FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN...SO KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THAT AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
INTO THE MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF ENHANCED BANDING DUE TO THE FGEN BANDING.
THE RAP13 AND NAM12 ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL FGEN BANDING MOVING
INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY GET
ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER
TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE SATURATION FROM THE RAIN AND THE
HUMID, UP-SLOPE FLOW FROM THE LAKE COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AS
A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE SAME REGION. THE LOW WILL
LIKELY PASS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE SE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A COOL AND
RAINY DAY WITH EAST TO NE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING
LOW. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO
FULL INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME OF MONDAY. THE FAR NW
FORECAST AREA WILL MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE RAIN, ESPECIALLY
KOOCHICHING COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER IN THE NW
FORECAST AREA DUE TO LESS RAIN AND THE WIND NOT ORIGINATING FROM
LEAK SUPERIOR. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW CAPE VALUES FOR THE
SE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID WEEK...THEN SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH A SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN. WE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO POPS DURING THIS TIME. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA MONDAY EVENING IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF AS
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN WILL BE OVER THAT AREA. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND WE TRENDED THAT WAY.

A SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI/SOUTHEAST MN BY
00Z WED AND THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON AN AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING
NORTH OF THE LOW. WE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAVE A CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW AND
ADDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RIDE THROUGH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE HAVE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE NORTHLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. WE RAMP UP POPS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THAT.
NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE TRICKY AS CLOUDS/PRECIP
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THEM. WE WENT WARMEST TUESDAY OVER
WESTERN AREAS...AND COOLEST OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WEDNESDAY
COULD BE WARM IF WE GET SOME SUNSHINE. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND 80. HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND WITH CEILINGS FROM 6-8KFT
FROM KBRD TO KHYR AND ONLY SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS/CUMULUS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT RAIN WAS PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN TOWARD THE NORTHLAND AND HAS MADE IT
TO K04W AS OF 1750Z. OVERALL...WE EXPECT THE RAIN TO ADVANCE NORTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY IT WILL
NOT MAKE IT TO KINL. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND TO IFR IN
SPOTS LATER TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AROUND
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL BE OFF LAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  58  49  71 /  80  90  60  40
INL  49  72  48  78 /  10  40  40  30
BRD  54  63  50  75 /  80  90  50  20
HYR  55  61  52  71 /  80  90  30  50
ASX  49  56  50  69 /  80  90  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 242025
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE FOCUS FOR THIS FORECAST PERIOD REMAINS THE APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS AND THE ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FOR THE
NORTHLAND. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR
MOST OF THE NORTHLAND THROUGH MONDAY. THE BIGGEST CHANGE WITH THIS
LATEST FORECAST WAS TO REMOVE THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND.
THE LATEST RAP13/NAM12/SREF/GFS INDICATE VERY LITTLE OR NO SUPPORT
TO JUSTIFY KEEPING THUNDER IN THE FORECAST. MOST OF THE MODELS
HAVE VERY LITTLE OR NO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE. THE MODELS DO HAVE A
LITTLE CAPE NEAR THE PRICE COUNTY AREA IN NW WISCONSIN FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN THE LOW MOVES THROUGH WISCONSIN...SO KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER FOR THAT AREA FOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

A LOW IN THE PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT AN ELEVATED WARM FRONT
INTO THE MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH TONIGHT. RAIN SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE APPROACHING ELEVATED WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE
TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TONIGHT. THERE
COULD BE SOME PERIODS OF ENHANCED BANDING DUE TO THE FGEN BANDING.
THE RAP13 AND NAM12 ARE INDICATING MID LEVEL FGEN BANDING MOVING
INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS EVENING AND GRADUALLY LIFTING
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY GET
ABOUT A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

NORTHEAST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATER
TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF THE SATURATION FROM THE RAIN AND THE
HUMID, UP-SLOPE FLOW FROM THE LAKE COULD RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG
NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW WILL LIFT THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY AS
A POTENT SHORTWAVE LIFTS THROUGH THE SAME REGION. THE LOW WILL
LIKELY PASS NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE SE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF THE DAY. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT A COOL AND
RAINY DAY WITH EAST TO NE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE PASSING
LOW. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL HALF TO
FULL INCH OF RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME OF MONDAY. THE FAR NW
FORECAST AREA WILL MISS OUT ON MOST OF THE RAIN, ESPECIALLY
KOOCHICHING COUNTY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH WARMER IN THE NW
FORECAST AREA DUE TO LESS RAIN AND THE WIND NOT ORIGINATING FROM
LEAK SUPERIOR. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW CAPE VALUES FOR THE
SE FORECAST MONDAY AFTERNOON, SO KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER
FOR THE FAR SE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THERE PERIOD WILL BE UNSETTLED WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS. OVERALL...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT INTO MID WEEK...THEN SHOW SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES
WITH A SYSTEM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.

CONFIDENCE IS A BIT LOWER THAN AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT REGARDING CHANCES FOR RAIN. WE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO POPS DURING THIS TIME. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHERN MINNESOTA MONDAY EVENING IN LINE WITH THE GFS/ECMWF AS
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN WILL BE OVER THAT AREA. RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD DIMINISH FOR MOST AREAS LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING AND WE TRENDED THAT WAY.

A SECOND SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WI/SOUTHEAST MN BY
00Z WED AND THE GFS/ECMWF AGREE ON AN AREA OF RAIN DEVELOPING
NORTH OF THE LOW. WE INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY OVER PARTS OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AND HAVE A CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. THE NAM IS WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE LOW AND
ADDS TO SOME UNCERTAINTY TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT WILL APPROACH NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATER
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE
TROUGH WILL RIDE THROUGH FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE HAVE A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...HIGHEST OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

A STRONGER SYSTEM WILL TAKE AIM AT THE NORTHLAND LATE IN THE
WEEK. THE GFS IS QUICKER THAN THE ECMWF. WE RAMP UP POPS THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF AGREE ON THAT.
NEXT WEEKEND SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE TRICKY AS CLOUDS/PRECIP
WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THEM. WE WENT WARMEST TUESDAY OVER
WESTERN AREAS...AND COOLEST OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN. WEDNESDAY
COULD BE WARM IF WE GET SOME SUNSHINE. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE HIGHS
IN THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND 80. HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND IS
EXPECTED TO DRAW SOME COLDER AIR INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND WITH CEILINGS FROM 6-8KFT
FROM KBRD TO KHYR AND ONLY SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS/CUMULUS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT RAIN WAS PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN TOWARD THE NORTHLAND AND HAS MADE IT
TO K04W AS OF 1750Z. OVERALL...WE EXPECT THE RAIN TO ADVANCE NORTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY IT WILL
NOT MAKE IT TO KINL. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND TO IFR IN
SPOTS LATER TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AROUND
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL BE OFF LAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  58  49  71 /  80  90  60  40
INL  49  72  48  78 /  10  40  40  30
BRD  54  63  50  75 /  80  90  50  20
HYR  55  61  52  71 /  80  90  30  50
ASX  49  56  50  69 /  80  90  40  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 241754
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED PCPN CHANCES AND WEATHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED
THUNDER SINCE NEW MODELS ARE INDICATING NEARLY NO SUPPORT FOR
THUNDER...INCLUDING LITTLE OR NO CAPE. MIGHT ALSO BACK OFF ON
THUNDER FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE NAM12/SREF/GEMREG HAVE
NEARLY NO CAPE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING IN
FROM THE SOUTH LATER TODAY AND SPREAD OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT...AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAIN
SITUATED NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE ALONG A NWD PROGRESSING EMBEDDED S/W
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE ST. CROIX RIVER
VALLEY CONTINUE TO RECEIVE HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AS
A WEAK WAVE TRIES TO OVERTAKE THE DRY AIR MASS UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DRAW UP A WARM MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE SFC LOW THROUGH THE REGION...EVEN 24-36 HOURS
OUT. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS FURTHER NORTH.

AN ENHANCED AREA OF MID LEVEL F-GEN INITIATED BY MODEST WAA WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION TO PRODUCE
THE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF
T-STORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL...AS CAPE VALUES
INCREASE TO 100-200 J/KG ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF NW WI. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS WELL BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOME TIME ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE E/NE THROUGH THE
DAY AN AREA OF ENHANCED RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DEFORMATION
ZONE TO THE N AND NW OF THE LOW TRACK. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL LATE MON MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A NORTHEAST WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF COLDER AIR TO INVADE THE TWIN
PORTS AREA INTO THE EVENING. AREAS ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S QUICKLY TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO
THE SOUTH WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE NE WINDS OFF
THE LAKE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...WHICH WILL MAKE IT SEEM EVEN COLDER AROUND THE DULUTH
AREA AND NOT AS PLEASANT WITH RAINY...WINDY...COLD AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN INTO
EARLY WEEK WILL GRADUALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING MONDAY...
BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK
LOOKS PRETTY UNSETTLED AS WELL. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BY TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING HIGHER
QPF INTO THE SE HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. IN GENERAL IT LOOKS
LIKE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE GENERALLY LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY. THE THURSDAY SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S...BUT SHOULD COOL INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND WITH CEILINGS FROM 6-8KFT
FROM KBRD TO KHYR AND ONLY SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS/CUMULUS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT RAIN WAS PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN TOWARD THE NORTHLAND AND HAS MADE IT
TO K04W AS OF 1750Z. OVERALL...WE EXPECT THE RAIN TO ADVANCE NORTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY IT WILL
NOT MAKE IT TO KINL. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND TO IFR IN
SPOTS LATER TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AROUND
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL BE OFF LAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  52  58  50 /  20  80  90  60
INL  78  49  72  49 /   0  10  40  40
BRD  67  54  63  52 /  50  80  90  50
HYR  70  55  61  55 /  60  80  90  30
ASX  71  49  56  51 /  30  80  90  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 241754
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED PCPN CHANCES AND WEATHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED
THUNDER SINCE NEW MODELS ARE INDICATING NEARLY NO SUPPORT FOR
THUNDER...INCLUDING LITTLE OR NO CAPE. MIGHT ALSO BACK OFF ON
THUNDER FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE NAM12/SREF/GEMREG HAVE
NEARLY NO CAPE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING IN
FROM THE SOUTH LATER TODAY AND SPREAD OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT...AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAIN
SITUATED NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE ALONG A NWD PROGRESSING EMBEDDED S/W
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE ST. CROIX RIVER
VALLEY CONTINUE TO RECEIVE HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AS
A WEAK WAVE TRIES TO OVERTAKE THE DRY AIR MASS UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DRAW UP A WARM MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE SFC LOW THROUGH THE REGION...EVEN 24-36 HOURS
OUT. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS FURTHER NORTH.

AN ENHANCED AREA OF MID LEVEL F-GEN INITIATED BY MODEST WAA WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION TO PRODUCE
THE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF
T-STORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL...AS CAPE VALUES
INCREASE TO 100-200 J/KG ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF NW WI. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS WELL BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOME TIME ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE E/NE THROUGH THE
DAY AN AREA OF ENHANCED RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DEFORMATION
ZONE TO THE N AND NW OF THE LOW TRACK. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL LATE MON MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A NORTHEAST WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF COLDER AIR TO INVADE THE TWIN
PORTS AREA INTO THE EVENING. AREAS ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S QUICKLY TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO
THE SOUTH WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE NE WINDS OFF
THE LAKE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...WHICH WILL MAKE IT SEEM EVEN COLDER AROUND THE DULUTH
AREA AND NOT AS PLEASANT WITH RAINY...WINDY...COLD AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN INTO
EARLY WEEK WILL GRADUALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING MONDAY...
BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK
LOOKS PRETTY UNSETTLED AS WELL. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BY TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING HIGHER
QPF INTO THE SE HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. IN GENERAL IT LOOKS
LIKE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE GENERALLY LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY. THE THURSDAY SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S...BUT SHOULD COOL INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND WITH CEILINGS FROM 6-8KFT
FROM KBRD TO KHYR AND ONLY SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS/CUMULUS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT RAIN WAS PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN TOWARD THE NORTHLAND AND HAS MADE IT
TO K04W AS OF 1750Z. OVERALL...WE EXPECT THE RAIN TO ADVANCE NORTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY IT WILL
NOT MAKE IT TO KINL. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND TO IFR IN
SPOTS LATER TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AROUND
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL BE OFF LAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  52  58  50 /  20  80  90  60
INL  78  49  72  49 /   0  10  40  40
BRD  67  54  63  52 /  50  80  90  50
HYR  70  55  61  55 /  60  80  90  30
ASX  71  49  56  51 /  30  80  90  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 241754
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED PCPN CHANCES AND WEATHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED
THUNDER SINCE NEW MODELS ARE INDICATING NEARLY NO SUPPORT FOR
THUNDER...INCLUDING LITTLE OR NO CAPE. MIGHT ALSO BACK OFF ON
THUNDER FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE NAM12/SREF/GEMREG HAVE
NEARLY NO CAPE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING IN
FROM THE SOUTH LATER TODAY AND SPREAD OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT...AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAIN
SITUATED NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE ALONG A NWD PROGRESSING EMBEDDED S/W
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE ST. CROIX RIVER
VALLEY CONTINUE TO RECEIVE HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AS
A WEAK WAVE TRIES TO OVERTAKE THE DRY AIR MASS UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DRAW UP A WARM MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE SFC LOW THROUGH THE REGION...EVEN 24-36 HOURS
OUT. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS FURTHER NORTH.

AN ENHANCED AREA OF MID LEVEL F-GEN INITIATED BY MODEST WAA WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION TO PRODUCE
THE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF
T-STORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL...AS CAPE VALUES
INCREASE TO 100-200 J/KG ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF NW WI. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS WELL BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOME TIME ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE E/NE THROUGH THE
DAY AN AREA OF ENHANCED RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DEFORMATION
ZONE TO THE N AND NW OF THE LOW TRACK. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL LATE MON MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A NORTHEAST WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF COLDER AIR TO INVADE THE TWIN
PORTS AREA INTO THE EVENING. AREAS ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S QUICKLY TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO
THE SOUTH WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE NE WINDS OFF
THE LAKE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...WHICH WILL MAKE IT SEEM EVEN COLDER AROUND THE DULUTH
AREA AND NOT AS PLEASANT WITH RAINY...WINDY...COLD AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN INTO
EARLY WEEK WILL GRADUALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING MONDAY...
BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK
LOOKS PRETTY UNSETTLED AS WELL. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BY TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING HIGHER
QPF INTO THE SE HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. IN GENERAL IT LOOKS
LIKE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE GENERALLY LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY. THE THURSDAY SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S...BUT SHOULD COOL INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND WITH CEILINGS FROM 6-8KFT
FROM KBRD TO KHYR AND ONLY SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS/CUMULUS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT RAIN WAS PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN TOWARD THE NORTHLAND AND HAS MADE IT
TO K04W AS OF 1750Z. OVERALL...WE EXPECT THE RAIN TO ADVANCE NORTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY IT WILL
NOT MAKE IT TO KINL. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND TO IFR IN
SPOTS LATER TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AROUND
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL BE OFF LAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  52  58  50 /  20  80  90  60
INL  78  49  72  49 /   0  10  40  40
BRD  67  54  63  52 /  50  80  90  50
HYR  70  55  61  55 /  60  80  90  30
ASX  71  49  56  51 /  30  80  90  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 241754
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED PCPN CHANCES AND WEATHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED
THUNDER SINCE NEW MODELS ARE INDICATING NEARLY NO SUPPORT FOR
THUNDER...INCLUDING LITTLE OR NO CAPE. MIGHT ALSO BACK OFF ON
THUNDER FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE NAM12/SREF/GEMREG HAVE
NEARLY NO CAPE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING IN
FROM THE SOUTH LATER TODAY AND SPREAD OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT...AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAIN
SITUATED NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE ALONG A NWD PROGRESSING EMBEDDED S/W
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE ST. CROIX RIVER
VALLEY CONTINUE TO RECEIVE HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AS
A WEAK WAVE TRIES TO OVERTAKE THE DRY AIR MASS UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DRAW UP A WARM MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE SFC LOW THROUGH THE REGION...EVEN 24-36 HOURS
OUT. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS FURTHER NORTH.

AN ENHANCED AREA OF MID LEVEL F-GEN INITIATED BY MODEST WAA WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION TO PRODUCE
THE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF
T-STORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL...AS CAPE VALUES
INCREASE TO 100-200 J/KG ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF NW WI. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS WELL BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOME TIME ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE E/NE THROUGH THE
DAY AN AREA OF ENHANCED RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DEFORMATION
ZONE TO THE N AND NW OF THE LOW TRACK. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL LATE MON MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A NORTHEAST WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF COLDER AIR TO INVADE THE TWIN
PORTS AREA INTO THE EVENING. AREAS ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S QUICKLY TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO
THE SOUTH WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE NE WINDS OFF
THE LAKE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...WHICH WILL MAKE IT SEEM EVEN COLDER AROUND THE DULUTH
AREA AND NOT AS PLEASANT WITH RAINY...WINDY...COLD AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN INTO
EARLY WEEK WILL GRADUALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING MONDAY...
BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK
LOOKS PRETTY UNSETTLED AS WELL. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BY TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING HIGHER
QPF INTO THE SE HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. IN GENERAL IT LOOKS
LIKE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE GENERALLY LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY. THE THURSDAY SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S...BUT SHOULD COOL INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND WITH CEILINGS FROM 6-8KFT
FROM KBRD TO KHYR AND ONLY SOME SCATTERED CIRRUS/CUMULUS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. LIGHT RAIN WAS PROGRESSING NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN TOWARD THE NORTHLAND AND HAS MADE IT
TO K04W AS OF 1750Z. OVERALL...WE EXPECT THE RAIN TO ADVANCE NORTH
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH IT IS LOOKING MORE LIKELY IT WILL
NOT MAKE IT TO KINL. CEILINGS WILL LOWER TO MVFR AND TO IFR IN
SPOTS LATER TONIGHT. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST LIKELY AROUND
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS WILL BE OFF LAKE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  52  58  50 /  20  80  90  60
INL  78  49  72  49 /   0  10  40  40
BRD  67  54  63  52 /  50  80  90  50
HYR  70  55  61  55 /  60  80  90  30
ASX  71  49  56  51 /  30  80  90  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 241732 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED PCPN CHANCES AND WEATHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED
THUNDER SINCE NEW MODELS ARE INDICATING NEARLY NO SUPPORT FOR
THUNDER...INCLUDING LITTLE OR NO CAPE. MIGHT ALSO BACK OFF ON
THUNDER FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE NAM12/SREF/GEMREG HAVE
NEARLY NO CAPE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING IN
FROM THE SOUTH LATER TODAY AND SPREAD OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT...AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAIN
SITUATED NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE ALONG A NWD PROGRESSING EMBEDDED S/W
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE ST. CROIX RIVER
VALLEY CONTINUE TO RECEIVE HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AS
A WEAK WAVE TRIES TO OVERTAKE THE DRY AIR MASS UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DRAW UP A WARM MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE SFC LOW THROUGH THE REGION...EVEN 24-36 HOURS
OUT. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS FURTHER NORTH.

AN ENHANCED AREA OF MID LEVEL F-GEN INITIATED BY MODEST WAA WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION TO PRODUCE
THE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF
T-STORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL...AS CAPE VALUES
INCREASE TO 100-200 J/KG ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF NW WI. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS WELL BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOME TIME ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE E/NE THROUGH THE
DAY AN AREA OF ENHANCED RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DEFORMATION
ZONE TO THE N AND NW OF THE LOW TRACK. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL LATE MON MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A NORTHEAST WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF COLDER AIR TO INVADE THE TWIN
PORTS AREA INTO THE EVENING. AREAS ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S QUICKLY TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO
THE SOUTH WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE NE WINDS OFF
THE LAKE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...WHICH WILL MAKE IT SEEM EVEN COLDER AROUND THE DULUTH
AREA AND NOT AS PLEASANT WITH RAINY...WINDY...COLD AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN INTO
EARLY WEEK WILL GRADUALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING MONDAY...
BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK
LOOKS PRETTY UNSETTLED AS WELL. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BY TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING HIGHER
QPF INTO THE SE HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. IN GENERAL IT LOOKS
LIKE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE GENERALLY LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY. THE THURSDAY SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S...BUT SHOULD COOL INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TAF
SITES...BUT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS TO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAINLY SPRINKLES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT. THE RAIN COULD
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY
TO MVFR OR EVENING IFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  49  60  50 /  20  90 100  60
INL  78  50  70  49 /   0  30  60  60
BRD  67  54  66  52 /  50  80  90  60
HYR  70  54  69  55 /  60  90  90  50
ASX  71  48  67  51 /  30 100  90  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 241732 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

UPDATED PCPN CHANCES AND WEATHER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. REMOVED
THUNDER SINCE NEW MODELS ARE INDICATING NEARLY NO SUPPORT FOR
THUNDER...INCLUDING LITTLE OR NO CAPE. MIGHT ALSO BACK OFF ON
THUNDER FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AS THE NAM12/SREF/GEMREG HAVE
NEARLY NO CAPE THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE NEXT ROUND
OF RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BEGIN PUSHING IN
FROM THE SOUTH LATER TODAY AND SPREAD OVER THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. SIGNIFICANT...AND MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM WITH WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES AND LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS REMAINS LOW.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC RIDGE AXIS REMAIN
SITUATED NW TO SE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING AS THE
INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE ALONG A NWD PROGRESSING EMBEDDED S/W
CONTINUES TO PRODUCE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ALONG AND JUST
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE ST. CROIX RIVER
VALLEY CONTINUE TO RECEIVE HIT AND MISS LIGHT RAIN THIS MORNING AS
A WEAK WAVE TRIES TO OVERTAKE THE DRY AIR MASS UNDER THE RIDGE.
THE MAIN UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO ROTATE EWD OVER THE ROCKIES AND
DRAW UP A WARM MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE ARE
STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS REGARDING THE TRACK
AND TIMING OF THE SFC LOW THROUGH THE REGION...EVEN 24-36 HOURS
OUT. THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT OUT AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT...WITH THE FIRST
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVING LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES...AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS FURTHER NORTH.

AN ENHANCED AREA OF MID LEVEL F-GEN INITIATED BY MODEST WAA WILL
COMBINE WITH STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION TO PRODUCE
THE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE DEVELOPMENT OF
T-STORMS IS POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS WELL...AS CAPE VALUES
INCREASE TO 100-200 J/KG ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF NW WI. CONDITIONS
WILL REMAIN WEAK ENOUGH TO KEEP STORMS WELL BELOW SEVERE LEVELS.

THE MAIN SFC LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION SOME TIME ON MONDAY
AND CONTINUE TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED
WEAK THUNDERSTORMS. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS TO THE E/NE THROUGH THE
DAY AN AREA OF ENHANCED RAINFALL WILL DEVELOP ALONG A DEFORMATION
ZONE TO THE N AND NW OF THE LOW TRACK. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL FALL LATE MON MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

A NORTHEAST WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL DEVELOP THIS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND ALLOW FOR A SURGE OF COLDER AIR TO INVADE THE TWIN
PORTS AREA INTO THE EVENING. AREAS ACROSS MUCH OF NE MN WILL WARM
INTO THE 70S QUICKLY TODAY...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS TO
THE SOUTH WHERE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL BE SEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL INTO THE 40S AND 50S TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE COOL SIDE MEMORIAL DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S. THE NE WINDS OFF
THE LAKE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW APPROACHES FROM
THE SW...WHICH WILL MAKE IT SEEM EVEN COLDER AROUND THE DULUTH
AREA AND NOT AS PLEASANT WITH RAINY...WINDY...COLD AND CLOUDY
CONDITIONS. EXPECT HIGHS ON MONDAY ONLY INTO THE 40S AND LOWER 50S
AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ALL THE RAIN INTO
EARLY WEEK WILL GRADUALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST ON MONDAY
NIGHT. RAIN WILL BE LIKELY AT LEAST THROUGH THE EVENING MONDAY...
BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST. THE REST OF THE WEEK
LOOKS PRETTY UNSETTLED AS WELL. THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW SOME FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES BY TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF BRINGING HIGHER
QPF INTO THE SE HALF OF THE CWA DURING THE DAY. IN GENERAL IT LOOKS
LIKE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE GENERALLY LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION AS A FEW WEAK SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES. A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ARRIVE ON THURSDAY...WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY. THE THURSDAY SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
SATURDAY WITH A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING SOUTHWARD OUT
OF CANADA. HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE 70S...BUT SHOULD COOL INTO THE 60S BY THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 736 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL START OUT THE DAY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TAF
SITES...BUT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING THICKENING AND
LOWERING CLOUDS TO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. MAINLY SPRINKLES
ARE EXPECTED TODAY...BUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL INCREASE QUICKLY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TONIGHT. THE RAIN COULD
BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES LATER TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL GIVE WAY
TO MVFR OR EVENING IFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  69  49  60  50 /  20  90 100  60
INL  78  50  70  49 /   0  30  60  60
BRD  67  54  66  52 /  50  80  90  60
HYR  70  54  69  55 /  60  90  90  50
ASX  71  48  67  51 /  30 100  90  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP








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