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000
FXUS63 KDLH 021202
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
602 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
INCOMING WINTER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT W/SW WINDS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE
TO THE EAST TODAY AND ALLOW A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING WINTER STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. ALOFT...A DEEP LONG WAVE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A TWO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PUSHING EWD INTO THE
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
PUSH EWD THROUGH MN. AS THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD AND
INTERACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING BAND OF MID LEVEL F-GEN AND A BROAD
AREA OF WAA...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
N-CENTRAL MN. AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD THE SRN BRANCH
OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE AND AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW FALL
WILL SET UP ALONG A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL MN INTO
NW WI TUESDAY MORNING. THE PERIOD FROM AROUND 6 AM THROUGH NOON
TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE
NORTHLAND. WILL LIKELY SEE A BROAD AREA OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO MUCH OF NW WI.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AROUND 1 TO 3
INCHES.

THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY IMPACT WILL BE THE BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO
KICK UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. EVEN THROUGH AREAS
TO THE NORTH/NW WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE AN
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO THE NORTH...WITH ALL AREAS
REMAINING IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THE DAYTIME STORM SWEEPS OFF TO THE EAST...AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE SWEPT THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY WE
WILL GET STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS GOING TO GENERATE WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS DURING THE EVENING. IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS IN OUR MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.  THIS IS GOING TO TAKE OUR
FRESH SNOWFALL AND PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WELL INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE THE WIND DIMINISHES ENOUGH.  THUS...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.  WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO
BE A COLD RAW DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...FLURRIES AND A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND AND CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  IN
FACT...EVEN AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENDS...WE MAY NEED TO
TRANSITION TO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO CALM DOWN AND BRING AN END TO
THE SNOW.  IN FACT...WE MAY WELL GET SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP IN THE TEENS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FOR NOW AM NOT CARRYING ANY SNOW CHANCES BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE FLURRIES...AND IF THE TRACK SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WE
WILL NEED TO PUT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK IN THE FORECAST.  CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY UP IN UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT AM CONCERNED THIS
IS OVERDONE AND MAY NEED TO LOWER WITH LATER FORECASTS.

HAVE A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES GETTING UP AROUND
FREEZING FOR SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
FLATTENING A BIT AND ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.  IN FACT...850MB TEMPS APPROACH ZERO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS DUE TO
MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GREAT THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO LINGER WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO SPREAD SNOW AND MVFR
CIELINGS BEGINNING AROUND 05Z...WITH VISIBILITIES SLOWLY LOWERING
TO IFR WITH MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 09Z. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING LOW AT THIS TIME AND HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW...BUT DO EXPECT IT WOULD BE AFTER 09Z AND CONTINUE
PAST 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  18  24  -6 /   0  80  90   0
INL  26  18  19 -11 /  10  50  50  10
BRD  29  20  22  -8 /  10  90  90  10
HYR  27  19  26  -6 /   0  90 100  10
ASX  27  19  28  -1 /   0  80  90  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ011-012-018-019-021-025-026.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ020-037-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ033>036.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 021202
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
602 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
INCOMING WINTER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT W/SW WINDS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE
TO THE EAST TODAY AND ALLOW A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING WINTER STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. ALOFT...A DEEP LONG WAVE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A TWO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PUSHING EWD INTO THE
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
PUSH EWD THROUGH MN. AS THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD AND
INTERACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING BAND OF MID LEVEL F-GEN AND A BROAD
AREA OF WAA...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
N-CENTRAL MN. AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD THE SRN BRANCH
OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE AND AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW FALL
WILL SET UP ALONG A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL MN INTO
NW WI TUESDAY MORNING. THE PERIOD FROM AROUND 6 AM THROUGH NOON
TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE
NORTHLAND. WILL LIKELY SEE A BROAD AREA OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO MUCH OF NW WI.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AROUND 1 TO 3
INCHES.

THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY IMPACT WILL BE THE BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO
KICK UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. EVEN THROUGH AREAS
TO THE NORTH/NW WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE AN
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO THE NORTH...WITH ALL AREAS
REMAINING IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THE DAYTIME STORM SWEEPS OFF TO THE EAST...AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE SWEPT THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY WE
WILL GET STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS GOING TO GENERATE WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS DURING THE EVENING. IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS IN OUR MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.  THIS IS GOING TO TAKE OUR
FRESH SNOWFALL AND PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WELL INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE THE WIND DIMINISHES ENOUGH.  THUS...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.  WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO
BE A COLD RAW DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...FLURRIES AND A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND AND CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  IN
FACT...EVEN AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENDS...WE MAY NEED TO
TRANSITION TO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO CALM DOWN AND BRING AN END TO
THE SNOW.  IN FACT...WE MAY WELL GET SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP IN THE TEENS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FOR NOW AM NOT CARRYING ANY SNOW CHANCES BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE FLURRIES...AND IF THE TRACK SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WE
WILL NEED TO PUT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK IN THE FORECAST.  CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY UP IN UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT AM CONCERNED THIS
IS OVERDONE AND MAY NEED TO LOWER WITH LATER FORECASTS.

HAVE A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES GETTING UP AROUND
FREEZING FOR SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
FLATTENING A BIT AND ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.  IN FACT...850MB TEMPS APPROACH ZERO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS DUE TO
MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GREAT THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO LINGER WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO SPREAD SNOW AND MVFR
CIELINGS BEGINNING AROUND 05Z...WITH VISIBILITIES SLOWLY LOWERING
TO IFR WITH MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 09Z. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING LOW AT THIS TIME AND HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW...BUT DO EXPECT IT WOULD BE AFTER 09Z AND CONTINUE
PAST 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  18  24  -6 /   0  80  90   0
INL  26  18  19 -11 /  10  50  50  10
BRD  29  20  22  -8 /  10  90  90  10
HYR  27  19  26  -6 /   0  90 100  10
ASX  27  19  28  -1 /   0  80  90  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ011-012-018-019-021-025-026.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ020-037-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ033>036.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 021202
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
602 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
INCOMING WINTER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT W/SW WINDS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE
TO THE EAST TODAY AND ALLOW A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING WINTER STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. ALOFT...A DEEP LONG WAVE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A TWO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PUSHING EWD INTO THE
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
PUSH EWD THROUGH MN. AS THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD AND
INTERACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING BAND OF MID LEVEL F-GEN AND A BROAD
AREA OF WAA...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
N-CENTRAL MN. AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD THE SRN BRANCH
OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE AND AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW FALL
WILL SET UP ALONG A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL MN INTO
NW WI TUESDAY MORNING. THE PERIOD FROM AROUND 6 AM THROUGH NOON
TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE
NORTHLAND. WILL LIKELY SEE A BROAD AREA OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO MUCH OF NW WI.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AROUND 1 TO 3
INCHES.

THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY IMPACT WILL BE THE BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO
KICK UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. EVEN THROUGH AREAS
TO THE NORTH/NW WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE AN
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO THE NORTH...WITH ALL AREAS
REMAINING IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THE DAYTIME STORM SWEEPS OFF TO THE EAST...AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE SWEPT THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY WE
WILL GET STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS GOING TO GENERATE WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS DURING THE EVENING. IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS IN OUR MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.  THIS IS GOING TO TAKE OUR
FRESH SNOWFALL AND PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WELL INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE THE WIND DIMINISHES ENOUGH.  THUS...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.  WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO
BE A COLD RAW DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...FLURRIES AND A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND AND CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  IN
FACT...EVEN AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENDS...WE MAY NEED TO
TRANSITION TO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO CALM DOWN AND BRING AN END TO
THE SNOW.  IN FACT...WE MAY WELL GET SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP IN THE TEENS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FOR NOW AM NOT CARRYING ANY SNOW CHANCES BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE FLURRIES...AND IF THE TRACK SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WE
WILL NEED TO PUT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK IN THE FORECAST.  CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY UP IN UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT AM CONCERNED THIS
IS OVERDONE AND MAY NEED TO LOWER WITH LATER FORECASTS.

HAVE A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES GETTING UP AROUND
FREEZING FOR SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
FLATTENING A BIT AND ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.  IN FACT...850MB TEMPS APPROACH ZERO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS DUE TO
MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GREAT THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO LINGER WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO SPREAD SNOW AND MVFR
CIELINGS BEGINNING AROUND 05Z...WITH VISIBILITIES SLOWLY LOWERING
TO IFR WITH MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 09Z. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING LOW AT THIS TIME AND HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW...BUT DO EXPECT IT WOULD BE AFTER 09Z AND CONTINUE
PAST 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  18  24  -6 /   0  80  90   0
INL  26  18  19 -11 /  10  50  50  10
BRD  29  20  22  -8 /  10  90  90  10
HYR  27  19  26  -6 /   0  90 100  10
ASX  27  19  28  -1 /   0  80  90  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ011-012-018-019-021-025-026.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ020-037-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ033>036.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 021202
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
602 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
INCOMING WINTER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT W/SW WINDS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE
TO THE EAST TODAY AND ALLOW A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING WINTER STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. ALOFT...A DEEP LONG WAVE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A TWO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PUSHING EWD INTO THE
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
PUSH EWD THROUGH MN. AS THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD AND
INTERACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING BAND OF MID LEVEL F-GEN AND A BROAD
AREA OF WAA...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
N-CENTRAL MN. AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD THE SRN BRANCH
OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE AND AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW FALL
WILL SET UP ALONG A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL MN INTO
NW WI TUESDAY MORNING. THE PERIOD FROM AROUND 6 AM THROUGH NOON
TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE
NORTHLAND. WILL LIKELY SEE A BROAD AREA OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO MUCH OF NW WI.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AROUND 1 TO 3
INCHES.

THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY IMPACT WILL BE THE BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO
KICK UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. EVEN THROUGH AREAS
TO THE NORTH/NW WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE AN
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO THE NORTH...WITH ALL AREAS
REMAINING IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THE DAYTIME STORM SWEEPS OFF TO THE EAST...AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE SWEPT THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY WE
WILL GET STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS GOING TO GENERATE WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS DURING THE EVENING. IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS IN OUR MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.  THIS IS GOING TO TAKE OUR
FRESH SNOWFALL AND PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WELL INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE THE WIND DIMINISHES ENOUGH.  THUS...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.  WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO
BE A COLD RAW DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...FLURRIES AND A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND AND CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  IN
FACT...EVEN AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENDS...WE MAY NEED TO
TRANSITION TO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO CALM DOWN AND BRING AN END TO
THE SNOW.  IN FACT...WE MAY WELL GET SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP IN THE TEENS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FOR NOW AM NOT CARRYING ANY SNOW CHANCES BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE FLURRIES...AND IF THE TRACK SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WE
WILL NEED TO PUT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK IN THE FORECAST.  CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY UP IN UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT AM CONCERNED THIS
IS OVERDONE AND MAY NEED TO LOWER WITH LATER FORECASTS.

HAVE A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES GETTING UP AROUND
FREEZING FOR SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
FLATTENING A BIT AND ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.  IN FACT...850MB TEMPS APPROACH ZERO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS DUE TO
MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GREAT THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 602 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING TO LINGER WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVERHEAD. NEXT STORM SYSTEM TO SPREAD SNOW AND MVFR
CIELINGS BEGINNING AROUND 05Z...WITH VISIBILITIES SLOWLY LOWERING
TO IFR WITH MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 09Z. IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE ON TIMING LOW AT THIS TIME AND HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW...BUT DO EXPECT IT WOULD BE AFTER 09Z AND CONTINUE
PAST 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  18  24  -6 /   0  80  90   0
INL  26  18  19 -11 /  10  50  50  10
BRD  29  20  22  -8 /  10  90  90  10
HYR  27  19  26  -6 /   0  90 100  10
ASX  27  19  28  -1 /   0  80  90  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ011-012-018-019-021-025-026.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ020-037-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ033>036.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 021026 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
425 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
INCOMING WINTER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT W/SW WINDS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE
TO THE EAST TODAY AND ALLOW A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING WINTER STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. ALOFT...A DEEP LONG WAVE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A TWO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PUSHING EWD INTO THE
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
PUSH EWD THROUGH MN. AS THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD AND
INTERACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING BAND OF MID LEVEL F-GEN AND A BROAD
AREA OF WAA...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
N-CENTRAL MN. AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD THE SRN BRANCH
OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE AND AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW FALL
WILL SET UP ALONG A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL MN INTO
NW WI TUESDAY MORNING. THE PERIOD FROM AROUND 6 AM THROUGH NOON
TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE
NORTHLAND. WILL LIKELY SEE A BROAD AREA OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO MUCH OF NW WI.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AROUND 1 TO 3
INCHES.

THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY IMPACT WILL BE THE BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO
KICK UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. EVEN THROUGH AREAS
TO THE NORTH/NW WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE AN
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO THE NORTH...WITH ALL AREAS
REMAINING IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THE DAYTIME STORM SWEEPS OFF TO THE EAST...AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE SWEPT THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY WE
WILL GET STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS GOING TO GENERATE WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS DURING THE EVENING. IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS IN OUR MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.  THIS IS GOING TO TAKE OUR
FRESH SNOWFALL AND PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WELL INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE THE WIND DIMINISHES ENOUGH.  THUS...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.  WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO
BE A COLD RAW DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...FLURRIES AND A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND AND CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  IN
FACT...EVEN AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENDS...WE MAY NEED TO
TRANSITION TO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO CALM DOWN AND BRING AN END TO
THE SNOW.  IN FACT...WE MAY WELL GET SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP IN THE TEENS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FOR NOW AM NOT CARRYING ANY SNOW CHANCES BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE FLURRIES...AND IF THE TRACK SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WE
WILL NEED TO PUT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK IN THE FORECAST.  CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY UP IN UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT AM CONCERNED THIS
IS OVERDONE AND MAY NEED TO LOWER WITH LATER FORECASTS.

HAVE A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES GETTING UP AROUND
FREEZING FOR SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
FLATTENING A BIT AND ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.  IN FACT...850MB TEMPS APPROACH ZERO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS DUE TO
MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GREAT THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

LAST BATCH OF MVFR CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH NW WI AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL DEPART BY 09Z...THEN VFR. SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT BRD
NEAR SUNSET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  18  24  -6 /   0  80  90   0
INL  26  18  19 -11 /  10  50  50  10
BRD  29  20  22  -8 /  10  90  90  10
HYR  27  19  26  -6 /   0  90 100  10
ASX  27  19  28  -1 /   0  80  90  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ011-012-018-019-021-025-026.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ020-037-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ033>036.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GSF









000
FXUS63 KDLH 021026 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
425 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
INCOMING WINTER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT W/SW WINDS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE
TO THE EAST TODAY AND ALLOW A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING WINTER STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. ALOFT...A DEEP LONG WAVE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A TWO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PUSHING EWD INTO THE
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
PUSH EWD THROUGH MN. AS THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD AND
INTERACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING BAND OF MID LEVEL F-GEN AND A BROAD
AREA OF WAA...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
N-CENTRAL MN. AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD THE SRN BRANCH
OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE AND AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW FALL
WILL SET UP ALONG A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL MN INTO
NW WI TUESDAY MORNING. THE PERIOD FROM AROUND 6 AM THROUGH NOON
TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE
NORTHLAND. WILL LIKELY SEE A BROAD AREA OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO MUCH OF NW WI.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AROUND 1 TO 3
INCHES.

THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY IMPACT WILL BE THE BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO
KICK UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. EVEN THROUGH AREAS
TO THE NORTH/NW WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE AN
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO THE NORTH...WITH ALL AREAS
REMAINING IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THE DAYTIME STORM SWEEPS OFF TO THE EAST...AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE SWEPT THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY WE
WILL GET STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS GOING TO GENERATE WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS DURING THE EVENING. IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS IN OUR MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.  THIS IS GOING TO TAKE OUR
FRESH SNOWFALL AND PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WELL INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE THE WIND DIMINISHES ENOUGH.  THUS...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.  WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO
BE A COLD RAW DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...FLURRIES AND A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND AND CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  IN
FACT...EVEN AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENDS...WE MAY NEED TO
TRANSITION TO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO CALM DOWN AND BRING AN END TO
THE SNOW.  IN FACT...WE MAY WELL GET SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP IN THE TEENS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FOR NOW AM NOT CARRYING ANY SNOW CHANCES BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE FLURRIES...AND IF THE TRACK SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WE
WILL NEED TO PUT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK IN THE FORECAST.  CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY UP IN UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT AM CONCERNED THIS
IS OVERDONE AND MAY NEED TO LOWER WITH LATER FORECASTS.

HAVE A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES GETTING UP AROUND
FREEZING FOR SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
FLATTENING A BIT AND ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.  IN FACT...850MB TEMPS APPROACH ZERO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS DUE TO
MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GREAT THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

LAST BATCH OF MVFR CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH NW WI AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL DEPART BY 09Z...THEN VFR. SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT BRD
NEAR SUNSET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  18  24  -6 /   0  80  90   0
INL  26  18  19 -11 /  10  50  50  10
BRD  29  20  22  -8 /  10  90  90  10
HYR  27  19  26  -6 /   0  90 100  10
ASX  27  19  28  -1 /   0  80  90  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ011-012-018-019-021-025-026.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ020-037-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ033>036.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GSF









000
FXUS63 KDLH 021026 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
425 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
INCOMING WINTER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT W/SW WINDS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE
TO THE EAST TODAY AND ALLOW A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING WINTER STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. ALOFT...A DEEP LONG WAVE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A TWO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PUSHING EWD INTO THE
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
PUSH EWD THROUGH MN. AS THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD AND
INTERACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING BAND OF MID LEVEL F-GEN AND A BROAD
AREA OF WAA...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
N-CENTRAL MN. AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD THE SRN BRANCH
OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE AND AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW FALL
WILL SET UP ALONG A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL MN INTO
NW WI TUESDAY MORNING. THE PERIOD FROM AROUND 6 AM THROUGH NOON
TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE
NORTHLAND. WILL LIKELY SEE A BROAD AREA OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO MUCH OF NW WI.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AROUND 1 TO 3
INCHES.

THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY IMPACT WILL BE THE BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO
KICK UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. EVEN THROUGH AREAS
TO THE NORTH/NW WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE AN
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO THE NORTH...WITH ALL AREAS
REMAINING IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THE DAYTIME STORM SWEEPS OFF TO THE EAST...AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE SWEPT THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY WE
WILL GET STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS GOING TO GENERATE WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS DURING THE EVENING. IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS IN OUR MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.  THIS IS GOING TO TAKE OUR
FRESH SNOWFALL AND PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WELL INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE THE WIND DIMINISHES ENOUGH.  THUS...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.  WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO
BE A COLD RAW DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...FLURRIES AND A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND AND CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  IN
FACT...EVEN AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENDS...WE MAY NEED TO
TRANSITION TO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO CALM DOWN AND BRING AN END TO
THE SNOW.  IN FACT...WE MAY WELL GET SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP IN THE TEENS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FOR NOW AM NOT CARRYING ANY SNOW CHANCES BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE FLURRIES...AND IF THE TRACK SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WE
WILL NEED TO PUT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK IN THE FORECAST.  CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY UP IN UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT AM CONCERNED THIS
IS OVERDONE AND MAY NEED TO LOWER WITH LATER FORECASTS.

HAVE A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES GETTING UP AROUND
FREEZING FOR SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
FLATTENING A BIT AND ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.  IN FACT...850MB TEMPS APPROACH ZERO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS DUE TO
MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GREAT THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

LAST BATCH OF MVFR CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH NW WI AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL DEPART BY 09Z...THEN VFR. SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT BRD
NEAR SUNSET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  18  24  -6 /   0  80  90   0
INL  26  18  19 -11 /  10  50  50  10
BRD  29  20  22  -8 /  10  90  90  10
HYR  27  19  26  -6 /   0  90 100  10
ASX  27  19  28  -1 /   0  80  90  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ011-012-018-019-021-025-026.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ020-037-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ033>036.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GSF










000
FXUS63 KDLH 021025
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
425 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
INCOMING WINTER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT W/SW WINDS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE
TO THE EAST TODAY AND ALLOW A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING WINTER STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. ALOFT...A DEEP LONG WAVE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A TWO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PUSHING EWD INTO THE
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
PUSH EWD THROUGH MN. AS THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD AND
INTERACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING BAND OF MID LEVEL F-GEN AND A BROAD
AREA OF WAA...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
N-CENTRAL MN. AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD THE SRN BRANCH
OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE AND AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW FALL
WILL SET UP ALONG A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL MN INTO
NW WI TUESDAY MORNING. THE PERIOD FROM AROUND 6 AM THROUGH NOON
TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE
NORTHLAND. WILL LIKELY SEE A BROAD AREA OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO MUCH OF NW WI.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AROUND 1 TO 3
INCHES.

THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY IMPACT WILL BE THE BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO
KICK UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. EVEN THROUGH AREAS
TO THE NORTH/NW WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE AN
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO THE NORTH...WITH ALL AREAS
REMAINING IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THE DAYTIME STORM SWEEPS OFF TO THE EAST...AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE SWEPT THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY WE
WILL GET STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS GOING TO GENERATE WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS DURING THE EVENING. IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS IN OUR MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.  THIS IS GOING TO TAKE OUR
FRESH SNOWFALL AND PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WELL INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE THE WIND DIMINISHES ENOUGH.  THUS...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.  WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO
BE A COLD RAW DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...FLURRIES AND A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND AND CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  IN
FACT...EVEN AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENDS...WE MAY NEED TO
TRANSITION TO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO CALM DOWN AND BRING AN END TO
THE SNOW.  IN FACT...WE MAY WELL GET SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP IN THE TEENS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FOR NOW AM NOT CARRYING ANY SNOW CHANCES BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE FLURRIES...AND IF THE TRACK SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WE
WILL NEED TO PUT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK IN THE FORECAST.  CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY UP IN UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT AM CONCERNED THIS
IS OVERDONE AND MAY NEED TO LOWER WITH LATER FORECASTS.

HAVE A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES GETTING UP AROUND
FREEZING FOR SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
FLATTENING A BIT AND ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.  IN FACT...850MB TEMPS APPROACH ZERO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS DUE TO
MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GREAT THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

LAST BATCH OF MVFR CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH NW WI AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL DEPART BY 09Z...THEN VFR. SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT BRD
NEAR SUNSET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  18  24  -6 /   0  80  90   0
INL  26  18  19 -11 /  10  50  50  10
BRD  29  20  22  -8 /  10  90  90  10
HYR  27  19  26  -6 /   0  90 100  10
ASX  27  19  28  -1 /   0  80  90  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ011-012-018-019-021-025-026.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ020-037-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ033>036.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 021025
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
425 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
INCOMING WINTER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ALONG WITH AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND
BEGINNING MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY EVENING FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT W/SW WINDS. THE SFC RIDGE WILL SLIDE
TO THE EAST TODAY AND ALLOW A RELATIVELY WARM/MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
DEVELOP OVER THE PLAINS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
INCOMING WINTER STORM SYSTEM ON TUESDAY. ALOFT...A DEEP LONG WAVE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH WILL EXIT THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH A TWO EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES PUSHING EWD INTO THE
MIDWEST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. AT THE SURFACE AN
ELONGATED N-S ORIENTED TROUGH WILL SET UP ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND
PUSH EWD THROUGH MN. AS THIS TROUGH/COLD FRONT PROGRESSES EWD AND
INTERACTS WITH A STRENGTHENING BAND OF MID LEVEL F-GEN AND A BROAD
AREA OF WAA...WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
N-CENTRAL MN. AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD THE SRN BRANCH
OF THE SFC TROUGH WILL DOMINATE AND AN ENHANCED AREA OF SNOW FALL
WILL SET UP ALONG A WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE THROUGH CENTRAL MN INTO
NW WI TUESDAY MORNING. THE PERIOD FROM AROUND 6 AM THROUGH NOON
TUESDAY WILL BE THE BEST TIME FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IN THE
NORTHLAND. WILL LIKELY SEE A BROAD AREA OF 2 TO 5 INCHES FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA TO THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO MUCH OF NW WI.
LESSER AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AROUND 1 TO 3
INCHES.

THE ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT WITH THIS SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...A SECONDARY IMPACT WILL BE THE BLOWING SNOW EXPECTED TO
KICK UP ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
W/NW AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND INCREASE...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 30 MPH. EVEN THROUGH AREAS
TO THE NORTH/NW WILL NOT SEE AS MUCH SNOW...THE POTENTIAL FOR
REDUCED VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SNOW WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL
CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY EVENING. THEREFORE...HAVE AN
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO THE NORTH...WITH ALL AREAS
REMAINING IN THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 424 AM CST MON MAR 2 2015

TUESDAY NIGHT THE DAYTIME STORM SWEEPS OFF TO THE EAST...AND BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL HAVE SWEPT THROUGH EARLIER IN THE DAY WE
WILL GET STRONG WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS AND LINGERING FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IS GOING TO GENERATE WINDS SUSTAINED
AROUND 15KTS WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25KTS DURING THE EVENING. IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING
30KTS IN OUR MORE EXPOSED LOCATIONS.  THIS IS GOING TO TAKE OUR
FRESH SNOWFALL AND PRODUCE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WELL INTO
THE EVENING BEFORE THE WIND DIMINISHES ENOUGH.  THUS...THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY CONTINUES INTO THE EVENING.  WEDNESDAY IS GOING TO
BE A COLD RAW DAY WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES...FLURRIES AND A BRISK
NORTHWEST WIND AND CONTINUING COLD AIR ADVECTION.  HIGH TEMPERATURES
ON WEDNESDAY ARE GOING TO STRUGGLE INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS.  IN
FACT...EVEN AS THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ENDS...WE MAY NEED TO
TRANSITION TO A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING.

A STRONG SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO CALM DOWN AND BRING AN END TO
THE SNOW.  IN FACT...WE MAY WELL GET SOME SUNSHINE FOR
THURSDAY...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP IN THE TEENS.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.
FOR NOW AM NOT CARRYING ANY SNOW CHANCES BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
TO SEE FLURRIES...AND IF THE TRACK SHIFTS A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH WE
WILL NEED TO PUT ACCUMULATING SNOW BACK IN THE FORECAST.  CURRENTLY
HAVE HIGHS FRIDAY UP IN UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S...BUT AM CONCERNED THIS
IS OVERDONE AND MAY NEED TO LOWER WITH LATER FORECASTS.

HAVE A BIT MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE TEMPERATURES GETTING UP AROUND
FREEZING FOR SATURDAY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES
FLATTENING A BIT AND ALLOWING SLIGHTLY WARMER PACIFIC AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA.  IN FACT...850MB TEMPS APPROACH ZERO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WITH SOME SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS DUE TO
MOVE THROUGH ON SUNDAY...SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS GREAT THERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

LAST BATCH OF MVFR CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH NW WI AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL DEPART BY 09Z...THEN VFR. SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT BRD
NEAR SUNSET.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  26  18  24  -6 /   0  80  90   0
INL  26  18  19 -11 /  10  50  50  10
BRD  29  20  22  -8 /  10  90  90  10
HYR  27  19  26  -6 /   0  90 100  10
ASX  27  19  28  -1 /   0  80  90  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ011-012-018-019-021-025-026.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ020-037-038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR MNZ033>036.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TUESDAY NIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 020520
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1120 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

REMOVED THE LATE AFTERNOON WORDING. OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE YET THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST IN SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ONTARIO
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15 MPH WESTERLY
WINDS. THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND
PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...BUT THERE WAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE TROUGH AND COOL WNW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
BOLSTERED BY THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EARLIER IN THE
EVENING...BUT BEGIN TO PLUMMET WHEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
NEAR 0 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE SUNNY SKIES AND MIXED SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. CONSIDERING THE SUN ANGLE IS IMPROVING BY
THE DAY...SUNNY DAYS ARE RESULTING IN WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE THE ALBEDO EFFECT FROM DARK BODY PINE
TREES. THEREFORE...INCREASED THE HIGHS OVER MOST GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S...IF NOT HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES EXPECTED OVER NRN WIS ZONES ATTM.

THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SRN STREAM SFC LOW AS IT LIFTS
OVER IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN...THE STRENGTHENING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SWEEP OVER THE NORTHLAND AND BRING AT LEAST FEW INCHES TO
MUCH OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BULK OF THE FORCING/MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN WISC ZONES...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW CENTER.
HOWEVER...LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KDLH/KHYR SUGGEST PWAT
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 0.4" BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DEEPLY
SATURATED PROFILES TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SUPPORT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AS
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND THE NRN STREAM LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN OVER ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO
30 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY FOR THE MN ZONES.

THE LOW BECOMES WRAPPED UP AND FINALLY CUTS OFF OVER JAMES BAY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING CLOUDS/FLURRIES WEDNESDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HINT AT NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1120 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

LAST BATCH OF MVFR CLOUDS MOVING THROUGH NW WI AT THE START OF THE
FORECAST. THESE CLOUDS WILL DEPART BY 09Z...THEN VFR. SOUTHERLY
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS EXPECTED TO AFFECT BRD
NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  25  15  24 /  10   0  40  90
INL  -1  25  15  20 /  10   0  50  30
BRD   2  29  17  22 /  10  10  60  80
HYR   0  27  15  26 /  10   0  50  90
ASX   4  27  16  27 /  10   0  40  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 020116
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
716 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

REMOVED THE LATE AFTERNOON WORDING. OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE YET THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST IN SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ONTARIO
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15 MPH WESTERLY
WINDS. THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND
PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...BUT THERE WAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE TROUGH AND COOL WNW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
BOLSTERED BY THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EARLIER IN THE
EVENING...BUT BEGIN TO PLUMMET WHEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
NEAR 0 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE SUNNY SKIES AND MIXED SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. CONSIDERING THE SUN ANGLE IS IMPROVING BY
THE DAY...SUNNY DAYS ARE RESULTING IN WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE THE ALBEDO EFFECT FROM DARK BODY PINE
TREES. THEREFORE...INCREASED THE HIGHS OVER MOST GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S...IF NOT HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES EXPECTED OVER NRN WIS ZONES ATTM.

THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SRN STREAM SFC LOW AS IT LIFTS
OVER IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN...THE STRENGTHENING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SWEEP OVER THE NORTHLAND AND BRING AT LEAST FEW INCHES TO
MUCH OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BULK OF THE FORCING/MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN WISC ZONES...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW CENTER.
HOWEVER...LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KDLH/KHYR SUGGEST PWAT
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 0.4" BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DEEPLY
SATURATED PROFILES TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SUPPORT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AS
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND THE NRN STREAM LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN OVER ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO
30 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY FOR THE MN ZONES.

THE LOW BECOMES WRAPPED UP AND FINALLY CUTS OFF OVER JAMES BAY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING CLOUDS/FLURRIES WEDNESDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HINT AT NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SFC TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH NW WI WHILE AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF
WAS MOVING THROUGH MN. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR THAT
WILL AFFECT BRD UNTIL 03Z. VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  25  15  24 /  10   0  40  90
INL  -1  25  15  20 /  10   0  50  30
BRD   2  29  17  22 /  10  10  60  80
HYR   0  27  15  26 /  10   0  50  90
ASX   4  27  16  27 /  10   0  40  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 020116
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
716 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

REMOVED THE LATE AFTERNOON WORDING. OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE YET THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST IN SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ONTARIO
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15 MPH WESTERLY
WINDS. THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND
PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...BUT THERE WAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE TROUGH AND COOL WNW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
BOLSTERED BY THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EARLIER IN THE
EVENING...BUT BEGIN TO PLUMMET WHEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
NEAR 0 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE SUNNY SKIES AND MIXED SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. CONSIDERING THE SUN ANGLE IS IMPROVING BY
THE DAY...SUNNY DAYS ARE RESULTING IN WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE THE ALBEDO EFFECT FROM DARK BODY PINE
TREES. THEREFORE...INCREASED THE HIGHS OVER MOST GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S...IF NOT HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES EXPECTED OVER NRN WIS ZONES ATTM.

THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SRN STREAM SFC LOW AS IT LIFTS
OVER IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN...THE STRENGTHENING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SWEEP OVER THE NORTHLAND AND BRING AT LEAST FEW INCHES TO
MUCH OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BULK OF THE FORCING/MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN WISC ZONES...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW CENTER.
HOWEVER...LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KDLH/KHYR SUGGEST PWAT
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 0.4" BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DEEPLY
SATURATED PROFILES TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SUPPORT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AS
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND THE NRN STREAM LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN OVER ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO
30 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY FOR THE MN ZONES.

THE LOW BECOMES WRAPPED UP AND FINALLY CUTS OFF OVER JAMES BAY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING CLOUDS/FLURRIES WEDNESDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HINT AT NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SFC TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH NW WI WHILE AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF
WAS MOVING THROUGH MN. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR THAT
WILL AFFECT BRD UNTIL 03Z. VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  25  15  24 /  10   0  40  90
INL  -1  25  15  20 /  10   0  50  30
BRD   2  29  17  22 /  10  10  60  80
HYR   0  27  15  26 /  10   0  50  90
ASX   4  27  16  27 /  10   0  40  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 020116
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
716 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

REMOVED THE LATE AFTERNOON WORDING. OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE YET THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST IN SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ONTARIO
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15 MPH WESTERLY
WINDS. THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND
PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...BUT THERE WAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE TROUGH AND COOL WNW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
BOLSTERED BY THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EARLIER IN THE
EVENING...BUT BEGIN TO PLUMMET WHEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
NEAR 0 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE SUNNY SKIES AND MIXED SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. CONSIDERING THE SUN ANGLE IS IMPROVING BY
THE DAY...SUNNY DAYS ARE RESULTING IN WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE THE ALBEDO EFFECT FROM DARK BODY PINE
TREES. THEREFORE...INCREASED THE HIGHS OVER MOST GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S...IF NOT HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES EXPECTED OVER NRN WIS ZONES ATTM.

THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SRN STREAM SFC LOW AS IT LIFTS
OVER IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN...THE STRENGTHENING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SWEEP OVER THE NORTHLAND AND BRING AT LEAST FEW INCHES TO
MUCH OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BULK OF THE FORCING/MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN WISC ZONES...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW CENTER.
HOWEVER...LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KDLH/KHYR SUGGEST PWAT
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 0.4" BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DEEPLY
SATURATED PROFILES TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SUPPORT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AS
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND THE NRN STREAM LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN OVER ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO
30 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY FOR THE MN ZONES.

THE LOW BECOMES WRAPPED UP AND FINALLY CUTS OFF OVER JAMES BAY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING CLOUDS/FLURRIES WEDNESDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HINT AT NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SFC TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH NW WI WHILE AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF
WAS MOVING THROUGH MN. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR THAT
WILL AFFECT BRD UNTIL 03Z. VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  25  15  24 /  10   0  40  90
INL  -1  25  15  20 /  10   0  50  30
BRD   2  29  17  22 /  10  10  60  80
HYR   0  27  15  26 /  10   0  50  90
ASX   4  27  16  27 /  10   0  40  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 020116
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
716 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 716 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

REMOVED THE LATE AFTERNOON WORDING. OTHERWISE...A FEW FLURRIES ARE
STILL POSSIBLE YET THIS EVENING. REST OF THE FORECAST IN SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ONTARIO
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15 MPH WESTERLY
WINDS. THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND
PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...BUT THERE WAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE TROUGH AND COOL WNW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
BOLSTERED BY THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EARLIER IN THE
EVENING...BUT BEGIN TO PLUMMET WHEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
NEAR 0 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE SUNNY SKIES AND MIXED SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. CONSIDERING THE SUN ANGLE IS IMPROVING BY
THE DAY...SUNNY DAYS ARE RESULTING IN WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE THE ALBEDO EFFECT FROM DARK BODY PINE
TREES. THEREFORE...INCREASED THE HIGHS OVER MOST GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S...IF NOT HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES EXPECTED OVER NRN WIS ZONES ATTM.

THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SRN STREAM SFC LOW AS IT LIFTS
OVER IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN...THE STRENGTHENING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SWEEP OVER THE NORTHLAND AND BRING AT LEAST FEW INCHES TO
MUCH OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BULK OF THE FORCING/MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN WISC ZONES...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW CENTER.
HOWEVER...LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KDLH/KHYR SUGGEST PWAT
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 0.4" BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DEEPLY
SATURATED PROFILES TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SUPPORT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AS
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND THE NRN STREAM LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN OVER ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO
30 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY FOR THE MN ZONES.

THE LOW BECOMES WRAPPED UP AND FINALLY CUTS OFF OVER JAMES BAY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING CLOUDS/FLURRIES WEDNESDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HINT AT NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SFC TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH NW WI WHILE AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF
WAS MOVING THROUGH MN. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR THAT
WILL AFFECT BRD UNTIL 03Z. VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  25  15  24 /  10   0  40  90
INL  -1  25  15  20 /  10   0  50  30
BRD   2  29  17  22 /  10  10  60  80
HYR   0  27  15  26 /  10   0  50  90
ASX   4  27  16  27 /  10   0  40  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 012324
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
524 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ONTARIO
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15 MPH WESTERLY
WINDS. THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND
PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...BUT THERE WAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE TROUGH AND COOL WNW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
BOLSTERED BY THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EARLIER IN THE
EVENING...BUT BEGIN TO PLUMMET WHEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
NEAR 0 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE SUNNY SKIES AND MIXED SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. CONSIDERING THE SUN ANGLE IS IMPROVING BY
THE DAY...SUNNY DAYS ARE RESULTING IN WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE THE ALBEDO EFFECT FROM DARK BODY PINE
TREES. THEREFORE...INCREASED THE HIGHS OVER MOST GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S...IF NOT HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES EXPECTED OVER NRN WIS ZONES ATTM.

THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SRN STREAM SFC LOW AS IT LIFTS
OVER IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN...THE STRENGTHENING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SWEEP OVER THE NORTHLAND AND BRING AT LEAST FEW INCHES TO
MUCH OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BULK OF THE FORCING/MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN WISC ZONES...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW CENTER.
HOWEVER...LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KDLH/KHYR SUGGEST PWAT
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 0.4" BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DEEPLY
SATURATED PROFILES TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SUPPORT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AS
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND THE NRN STREAM LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN OVER ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO
30 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY FOR THE MN ZONES.

THE LOW BECOMES WRAPPED UP AND FINALLY CUTS OFF OVER JAMES BAY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING CLOUDS/FLURRIES WEDNESDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HINT AT NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SFC TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH NW WI WHILE AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF
WAS MOVING THROUGH MN. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR THAT
WILL AFFECT BRD UNTIL 03Z. VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  25  15  24 /  10   0  40  90
INL  -1  25  15  20 /  10   0  50  30
BRD   2  29  17  22 /  10  10  60  80
HYR   0  27  15  26 /  10   0  50  90
ASX   4  27  16  27 /  10   0  40  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF









000
FXUS63 KDLH 012324
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
524 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ONTARIO
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15 MPH WESTERLY
WINDS. THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND
PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...BUT THERE WAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE TROUGH AND COOL WNW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
BOLSTERED BY THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EARLIER IN THE
EVENING...BUT BEGIN TO PLUMMET WHEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
NEAR 0 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE SUNNY SKIES AND MIXED SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. CONSIDERING THE SUN ANGLE IS IMPROVING BY
THE DAY...SUNNY DAYS ARE RESULTING IN WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE THE ALBEDO EFFECT FROM DARK BODY PINE
TREES. THEREFORE...INCREASED THE HIGHS OVER MOST GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S...IF NOT HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES EXPECTED OVER NRN WIS ZONES ATTM.

THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SRN STREAM SFC LOW AS IT LIFTS
OVER IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN...THE STRENGTHENING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SWEEP OVER THE NORTHLAND AND BRING AT LEAST FEW INCHES TO
MUCH OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BULK OF THE FORCING/MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN WISC ZONES...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW CENTER.
HOWEVER...LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KDLH/KHYR SUGGEST PWAT
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 0.4" BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DEEPLY
SATURATED PROFILES TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SUPPORT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AS
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND THE NRN STREAM LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN OVER ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO
30 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY FOR THE MN ZONES.

THE LOW BECOMES WRAPPED UP AND FINALLY CUTS OFF OVER JAMES BAY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING CLOUDS/FLURRIES WEDNESDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HINT AT NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A SFC TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH NW WI WHILE AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF
WAS MOVING THROUGH MN. MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED BETWEEN THESE
FEATURES. HOWEVER...THERE ARE SOME SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR THAT
WILL AFFECT BRD UNTIL 03Z. VFR ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  25  15  24 /  10   0  40  90
INL  -1  25  15  20 /  10   0  50  30
BRD   2  29  17  22 /  10  10  60  80
HYR   0  27  15  26 /  10   0  50  90
ASX   4  27  16  27 /  10   0  40  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 012100
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ONTARIO
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15 MPH WESTERLY
WINDS. THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND
PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...BUT THERE WAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE TROUGH AND COOL WNW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
BOLSTERED BY THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EARLIER IN THE
EVENING...BUT BEGIN TO PLUMMET WHEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
NEAR 0 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE SUNNY SKIES AND MIXED SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. CONSIDERING THE SUN ANGLE IS IMPROVING BY
THE DAY...SUNNY DAYS ARE RESULTING IN WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE THE ALBEDO EFFECT FROM DARK BODY PINE
TREES. THEREFORE...INCREASED THE HIGHS OVER MOST GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S...IF NOT HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES EXPECTED OVER NRN WIS ZONES ATTM.

THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SRN STREAM SFC LOW AS IT LIFTS
OVER IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN...THE STRENGTHENING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SWEEP OVER THE NORTHLAND AND BRING AT LEAST FEW INCHES TO
MUCH OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BULK OF THE FORCING/MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN WISC ZONES...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW CENTER.
HOWEVER...LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KDLH/KHYR SUGGEST PWAT
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 0.4" BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DEEPLY
SATURATED PROFILES TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SUPPORT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AS
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND THE NRN STREAM LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN OVER ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO
30 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY FOR THE MN ZONES.

THE LOW BECOMES WRAPPED UP AND FINALLY CUTS OFF OVER JAMES BAY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING CLOUDS/FLURRIES WEDNESDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HINT AT NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...BRINGING PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CEILINGS. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF FLURRIES AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE FROPA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  25  15  24 /  10   0  40  90
INL  -1  25  15  20 /  10   0  50  30
BRD   2  29  17  22 /  10  10  60  80
HYR   0  27  15  26 /  10   0  50  90
ASX   4  27  16  27 /  10   0  40  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING









000
FXUS63 KDLH 012100
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ONTARIO
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15 MPH WESTERLY
WINDS. THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND
PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...BUT THERE WAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE TROUGH AND COOL WNW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
BOLSTERED BY THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EARLIER IN THE
EVENING...BUT BEGIN TO PLUMMET WHEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
NEAR 0 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE SUNNY SKIES AND MIXED SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. CONSIDERING THE SUN ANGLE IS IMPROVING BY
THE DAY...SUNNY DAYS ARE RESULTING IN WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE THE ALBEDO EFFECT FROM DARK BODY PINE
TREES. THEREFORE...INCREASED THE HIGHS OVER MOST GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S...IF NOT HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES EXPECTED OVER NRN WIS ZONES ATTM.

THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SRN STREAM SFC LOW AS IT LIFTS
OVER IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN...THE STRENGTHENING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SWEEP OVER THE NORTHLAND AND BRING AT LEAST FEW INCHES TO
MUCH OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BULK OF THE FORCING/MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN WISC ZONES...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW CENTER.
HOWEVER...LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KDLH/KHYR SUGGEST PWAT
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 0.4" BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DEEPLY
SATURATED PROFILES TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SUPPORT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AS
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND THE NRN STREAM LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN OVER ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO
30 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY FOR THE MN ZONES.

THE LOW BECOMES WRAPPED UP AND FINALLY CUTS OFF OVER JAMES BAY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING CLOUDS/FLURRIES WEDNESDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HINT AT NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...BRINGING PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CEILINGS. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF FLURRIES AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE FROPA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  25  15  24 /  10   0  40  90
INL  -1  25  15  20 /  10   0  50  30
BRD   2  29  17  22 /  10  10  60  80
HYR   0  27  15  26 /  10   0  50  90
ASX   4  27  16  27 /  10   0  40  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 012100
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ONTARIO
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15 MPH WESTERLY
WINDS. THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND
PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...BUT THERE WAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE TROUGH AND COOL WNW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
BOLSTERED BY THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EARLIER IN THE
EVENING...BUT BEGIN TO PLUMMET WHEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
NEAR 0 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE SUNNY SKIES AND MIXED SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. CONSIDERING THE SUN ANGLE IS IMPROVING BY
THE DAY...SUNNY DAYS ARE RESULTING IN WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE THE ALBEDO EFFECT FROM DARK BODY PINE
TREES. THEREFORE...INCREASED THE HIGHS OVER MOST GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S...IF NOT HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES EXPECTED OVER NRN WIS ZONES ATTM.

THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SRN STREAM SFC LOW AS IT LIFTS
OVER IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN...THE STRENGTHENING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SWEEP OVER THE NORTHLAND AND BRING AT LEAST FEW INCHES TO
MUCH OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BULK OF THE FORCING/MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN WISC ZONES...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW CENTER.
HOWEVER...LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KDLH/KHYR SUGGEST PWAT
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 0.4" BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DEEPLY
SATURATED PROFILES TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SUPPORT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AS
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND THE NRN STREAM LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN OVER ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO
30 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY FOR THE MN ZONES.

THE LOW BECOMES WRAPPED UP AND FINALLY CUTS OFF OVER JAMES BAY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING CLOUDS/FLURRIES WEDNESDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HINT AT NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...BRINGING PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CEILINGS. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF FLURRIES AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE FROPA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  25  15  24 /  10   0  40  90
INL  -1  25  15  20 /  10   0  50  30
BRD   2  29  17  22 /  10  10  60  80
HYR   0  27  15  26 /  10   0  50  90
ASX   4  27  16  27 /  10   0  40  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 012100
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

AT 300 PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ONTARIO
AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15 MPH WESTERLY
WINDS. THERE WERE CLEAR SKIES OVER THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND
PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN...BUT THERE WAS INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM
THE WEST. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION. THE TROUGH AND COOL WNW FLOW WILL LIKELY BRING A
PERIOD SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AND SCATTERED SNOW FLURRIES THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND.

LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING...A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE A PERIOD OF
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE
BOLSTERED BY THE WINDS AND CLOUD COVER EARLIER IN THE
EVENING...BUT BEGIN TO PLUMMET WHEN THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATER IN THE NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE
NEAR 0 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS.

LATE MONDAY MORNING AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AS LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE SUNNY SKIES AND MIXED SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES REACH HIGHER THAN WHAT SOME OF THE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING. CONSIDERING THE SUN ANGLE IS IMPROVING BY
THE DAY...SUNNY DAYS ARE RESULTING IN WARMER THAN GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES DUE TO THE THE ALBEDO EFFECT FROM DARK BODY PINE
TREES. THEREFORE...INCREASED THE HIGHS OVER MOST GUIDANCE AND THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. HIGHS SHOULD AT LEAST REACH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
20S...IF NOT HIGHER.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATING SNOW EVENT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 3 INCHES EXPECTED OVER NRN WIS ZONES ATTM.

THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A
LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGS ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY
NIGHT...MEANWHILE PHASING WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY. ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TRACK OF THE SRN STREAM SFC LOW AS IT LIFTS
OVER IOWA AND INTO WISCONSIN...THE STRENGTHENING INVERTED TROUGH
WILL SWEEP OVER THE NORTHLAND AND BRING AT LEAST FEW INCHES TO
MUCH OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE BULK OF THE FORCING/MOISTURE AND SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION WILL BE
ACROSS THE NRN WISC ZONES...CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW CENTER.
HOWEVER...LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KDLH/KHYR SUGGEST PWAT
VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 0.4" BY TUESDAY MORNING...WITH DEEPLY
SATURATED PROFILES TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND SUPPORT
SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOWFALL.

IN ADDITION...A SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION AS
WINDS TURN OUT OF THE NW AND THE NRN STREAM LOW CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN OVER ONTARIO THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS TO
30 MPH AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...MAINLY FOR THE MN ZONES.

THE LOW BECOMES WRAPPED UP AND FINALLY CUTS OFF OVER JAMES BAY BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD
CYCLONIC FLOW WITH LINGERING CLOUDS/FLURRIES WEDNESDAY.

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A WARM QUASI-ZONAL
FLOW RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK WITH THE HINT AT NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND FOR MUCH OF THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...BRINGING PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CEILINGS. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF FLURRIES AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE FROPA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   3  25  15  24 /  10   0  40  90
INL  -1  25  15  20 /  10   0  50  30
BRD   2  29  17  22 /  10  10  60  80
HYR   0  27  15  26 /  10   0  50  90
ASX   4  27  16  27 /  10   0  40  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING









000
FXUS63 KDLH 011816
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1216 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...SOME
CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT
AND MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW
ARE PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT TO PRODUCE THESE SHOWERS...AND AS
THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD A NARROW WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL PUSH IN
ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW THE SNOW TO END AND POSSIBLY MIX OUT SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING. LATEST VISIBLE SAT SHOWS A
DECENT AMT OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NW
MN...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY...AND AS A
SECONDARY S/W DROPS IN FROM THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON THE
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING IN THE BL AND WEAK CAA
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN AREA OF
STRATO-CUMULUS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES FAIRLY DEEP FOR EARLY MARCH...SO ADDED SCT FLURRIES
TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A BUILDING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WILL ALLOW THE CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET. THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ALLOWS FOR A
RETURN SLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING IN A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SW IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME RANGE IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS ARE IMPROVING IN
CONSISTENCY BOTH FROM RUN TO RUN...THOUGH MANY DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS.  THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER
THIS MORNING WITH A SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST TRACK TO THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS OF THIS SYSTEM.  FOR NOW AM PREFERRING THE SLIGHTLY
LESS PHASED AND MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS.  WITH
THAT...WE ARE LOOKING AT SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW CONTINUING ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NW WISCONSIN TO BE THE MOST
AFFECTED...WITH A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE 24
HOUR PERIOD...WITH MOST OF IT FALLING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE IS LOOKING LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES.  FULLY EXPECT THIS TO BE
ADJUSTED SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO CANNOT PUT TOO
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST FOR NOW.  A DUMP OF COLD AIR PUSHES
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 28 BELOW.
ON WEDNESDAY I EXPECT A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

THE COLD AIR DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...WHICH
CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  BETWEEN THE SUNSHINE THAT WE CAN
EXPECT IN THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WE
SHOULD GET SOME FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGES...AND ALREADY ON
THURSDAY HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FROM LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AND
SHOULD BRING SOME SMALL SNOW CHANCES.  WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL NOT BE QUITE SO LARGE.  CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE.  SATURDAY TO BE
BACK INTO THE SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AGAIN THOUGH...AND
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...BRINGING PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CEILINGS. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF FLURRIES AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE FROPA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   5  24  14  23 /  10   0  50  70
INL  -3  24  13  18 /  10   0  30  30
BRD   2  26  16  20 /  10  10  60  60
HYR   1  25  14  26 /  10   0  50  80
ASX   7  26  15  27 /  10   0  40  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 011816
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1216 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...SOME
CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT
AND MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW
ARE PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT TO PRODUCE THESE SHOWERS...AND AS
THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD A NARROW WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL PUSH IN
ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW THE SNOW TO END AND POSSIBLY MIX OUT SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING. LATEST VISIBLE SAT SHOWS A
DECENT AMT OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NW
MN...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY...AND AS A
SECONDARY S/W DROPS IN FROM THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON THE
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING IN THE BL AND WEAK CAA
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN AREA OF
STRATO-CUMULUS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES FAIRLY DEEP FOR EARLY MARCH...SO ADDED SCT FLURRIES
TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A BUILDING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WILL ALLOW THE CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET. THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ALLOWS FOR A
RETURN SLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING IN A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SW IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME RANGE IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS ARE IMPROVING IN
CONSISTENCY BOTH FROM RUN TO RUN...THOUGH MANY DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS.  THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER
THIS MORNING WITH A SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST TRACK TO THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS OF THIS SYSTEM.  FOR NOW AM PREFERRING THE SLIGHTLY
LESS PHASED AND MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS.  WITH
THAT...WE ARE LOOKING AT SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW CONTINUING ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NW WISCONSIN TO BE THE MOST
AFFECTED...WITH A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE 24
HOUR PERIOD...WITH MOST OF IT FALLING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE IS LOOKING LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES.  FULLY EXPECT THIS TO BE
ADJUSTED SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO CANNOT PUT TOO
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST FOR NOW.  A DUMP OF COLD AIR PUSHES
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 28 BELOW.
ON WEDNESDAY I EXPECT A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

THE COLD AIR DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...WHICH
CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  BETWEEN THE SUNSHINE THAT WE CAN
EXPECT IN THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WE
SHOULD GET SOME FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGES...AND ALREADY ON
THURSDAY HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FROM LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AND
SHOULD BRING SOME SMALL SNOW CHANCES.  WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL NOT BE QUITE SO LARGE.  CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE.  SATURDAY TO BE
BACK INTO THE SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AGAIN THOUGH...AND
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

A WEAK TROUGH WILL PASS OVER THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...BRINGING PRIMARILY MID LEVEL CEILINGS. HOWEVER...THERE
WILL BE PERIODS OF FLURRIES AND MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE FROPA. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT...ALLOWING FOR VFR
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   5  24  14  23 /  10   0  50  70
INL  -3  24  13  18 /  10   0  30  30
BRD   2  26  16  20 /  10  10  60  60
HYR   1  25  14  26 /  10   0  50  80
ASX   7  26  15  27 /  10   0  40  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING









000
FXUS63 KDLH 011219
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
619 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...SOME
CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT
AND MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW
ARE PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT TO PRODUCE THESE SHOWERS...AND AS
THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD A NARROW WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL PUSH IN
ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW THE SNOW TO END AND POSSIBLY MIX OUT SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING. LATEST VISIBLE SAT SHOWS A
DECENT AMT OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NW
MN...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY...AND AS A
SECONDARY S/W DROPS IN FROM THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON THE
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING IN THE BL AND WEAK CAA
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN AREA OF
STRATO-CUMULUS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES FAIRLY DEEP FOR EARLY MARCH...SO ADDED SCT FLURRIES
TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A BUILDING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WILL ALLOW THE CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET. THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ALLOWS FOR A
RETURN SLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING IN A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SW IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME RANGE IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS ARE IMPROVING IN
CONSISTENCY BOTH FROM RUN TO RUN...THOUGH MANY DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS.  THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER
THIS MORNING WITH A SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST TRACK TO THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS OF THIS SYSTEM.  FOR NOW AM PREFERRING THE SLIGHTLY
LESS PHASED AND MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS.  WITH
THAT...WE ARE LOOKING AT SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW CONTINUING ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NW WISCONSIN TO BE THE MOST
AFFECTED...WITH A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE 24
HOUR PERIOD...WITH MOST OF IT FALLING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE IS LOOKING LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES.  FULLY EXPECT THIS TO BE
ADJUSTED SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO CANNOT PUT TOO
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST FOR NOW.  A DUMP OF COLD AIR PUSHES
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 28 BELOW.
ON WEDNESDAY I EXPECT A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

THE COLD AIR DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...WHICH
CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  BETWEEN THE SUNSHINE THAT WE CAN
EXPECT IN THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WE
SHOULD GET SOME FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGES...AND ALREADY ON
THURSDAY HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FROM LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AND
SHOULD BRING SOME SMALL SNOW CHANCES.  WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL NOT BE QUITE SO LARGE.  CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE.  SATURDAY TO BE
BACK INTO THE SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AGAIN THOUGH...AND
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AS OF 12Z WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA...WITH SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ENDING FOR ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z AND RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS TO BE GENERATED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK TROUGH. THESE SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND HAVE
WRITTEN THE TERMINAL FORECAST SO...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE BY 02Z THIS EVENING AND
RETURN TO VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS...ALSO DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
10KTS BY 02Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  20   5  24  14 /  20  10   0  50
INL  17  -3  24  13 /  10  10   0  30
BRD  23   2  26  16 /  10   0  10  60
HYR  22   1  25  14 /  30  10   0  50
ASX  24   7  26  15 /  10  10   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 011219
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
619 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...SOME
CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT
AND MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW
ARE PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT TO PRODUCE THESE SHOWERS...AND AS
THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD A NARROW WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL PUSH IN
ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW THE SNOW TO END AND POSSIBLY MIX OUT SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING. LATEST VISIBLE SAT SHOWS A
DECENT AMT OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NW
MN...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY...AND AS A
SECONDARY S/W DROPS IN FROM THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON THE
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING IN THE BL AND WEAK CAA
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN AREA OF
STRATO-CUMULUS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES FAIRLY DEEP FOR EARLY MARCH...SO ADDED SCT FLURRIES
TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A BUILDING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WILL ALLOW THE CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET. THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ALLOWS FOR A
RETURN SLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING IN A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SW IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME RANGE IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS ARE IMPROVING IN
CONSISTENCY BOTH FROM RUN TO RUN...THOUGH MANY DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS.  THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER
THIS MORNING WITH A SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST TRACK TO THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS OF THIS SYSTEM.  FOR NOW AM PREFERRING THE SLIGHTLY
LESS PHASED AND MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS.  WITH
THAT...WE ARE LOOKING AT SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW CONTINUING ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NW WISCONSIN TO BE THE MOST
AFFECTED...WITH A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE 24
HOUR PERIOD...WITH MOST OF IT FALLING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE IS LOOKING LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES.  FULLY EXPECT THIS TO BE
ADJUSTED SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO CANNOT PUT TOO
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST FOR NOW.  A DUMP OF COLD AIR PUSHES
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 28 BELOW.
ON WEDNESDAY I EXPECT A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

THE COLD AIR DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...WHICH
CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  BETWEEN THE SUNSHINE THAT WE CAN
EXPECT IN THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WE
SHOULD GET SOME FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGES...AND ALREADY ON
THURSDAY HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FROM LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AND
SHOULD BRING SOME SMALL SNOW CHANCES.  WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL NOT BE QUITE SO LARGE.  CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE.  SATURDAY TO BE
BACK INTO THE SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AGAIN THOUGH...AND
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AS OF 12Z WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA...WITH SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ENDING FOR ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z AND RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS TO BE GENERATED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK TROUGH. THESE SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND HAVE
WRITTEN THE TERMINAL FORECAST SO...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE BY 02Z THIS EVENING AND
RETURN TO VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS...ALSO DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
10KTS BY 02Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  20   5  24  14 /  20  10   0  50
INL  17  -3  24  13 /  10  10   0  30
BRD  23   2  26  16 /  10   0  10  60
HYR  22   1  25  14 /  30  10   0  50
ASX  24   7  26  15 /  10  10   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 011219
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
619 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...SOME
CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT
AND MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW
ARE PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT TO PRODUCE THESE SHOWERS...AND AS
THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD A NARROW WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL PUSH IN
ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW THE SNOW TO END AND POSSIBLY MIX OUT SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING. LATEST VISIBLE SAT SHOWS A
DECENT AMT OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NW
MN...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY...AND AS A
SECONDARY S/W DROPS IN FROM THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON THE
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING IN THE BL AND WEAK CAA
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN AREA OF
STRATO-CUMULUS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES FAIRLY DEEP FOR EARLY MARCH...SO ADDED SCT FLURRIES
TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A BUILDING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WILL ALLOW THE CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET. THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ALLOWS FOR A
RETURN SLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING IN A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SW IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME RANGE IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS ARE IMPROVING IN
CONSISTENCY BOTH FROM RUN TO RUN...THOUGH MANY DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS.  THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER
THIS MORNING WITH A SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST TRACK TO THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS OF THIS SYSTEM.  FOR NOW AM PREFERRING THE SLIGHTLY
LESS PHASED AND MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS.  WITH
THAT...WE ARE LOOKING AT SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW CONTINUING ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NW WISCONSIN TO BE THE MOST
AFFECTED...WITH A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE 24
HOUR PERIOD...WITH MOST OF IT FALLING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE IS LOOKING LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES.  FULLY EXPECT THIS TO BE
ADJUSTED SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO CANNOT PUT TOO
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST FOR NOW.  A DUMP OF COLD AIR PUSHES
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 28 BELOW.
ON WEDNESDAY I EXPECT A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

THE COLD AIR DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...WHICH
CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  BETWEEN THE SUNSHINE THAT WE CAN
EXPECT IN THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WE
SHOULD GET SOME FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGES...AND ALREADY ON
THURSDAY HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FROM LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AND
SHOULD BRING SOME SMALL SNOW CHANCES.  WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL NOT BE QUITE SO LARGE.  CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE.  SATURDAY TO BE
BACK INTO THE SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AGAIN THOUGH...AND
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AS OF 12Z WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA...WITH SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ENDING FOR ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z AND RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS TO BE GENERATED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK TROUGH. THESE SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND HAVE
WRITTEN THE TERMINAL FORECAST SO...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE BY 02Z THIS EVENING AND
RETURN TO VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS...ALSO DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
10KTS BY 02Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  20   5  24  14 /  20  10   0  50
INL  17  -3  24  13 /  10  10   0  30
BRD  23   2  26  16 /  10   0  10  60
HYR  22   1  25  14 /  30  10   0  50
ASX  24   7  26  15 /  10  10   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 011219
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
619 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...SOME
CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT
AND MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW
ARE PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT TO PRODUCE THESE SHOWERS...AND AS
THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD A NARROW WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL PUSH IN
ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW THE SNOW TO END AND POSSIBLY MIX OUT SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING. LATEST VISIBLE SAT SHOWS A
DECENT AMT OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NW
MN...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY...AND AS A
SECONDARY S/W DROPS IN FROM THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON THE
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING IN THE BL AND WEAK CAA
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN AREA OF
STRATO-CUMULUS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES FAIRLY DEEP FOR EARLY MARCH...SO ADDED SCT FLURRIES
TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A BUILDING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WILL ALLOW THE CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET. THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ALLOWS FOR A
RETURN SLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING IN A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SW IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME RANGE IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS ARE IMPROVING IN
CONSISTENCY BOTH FROM RUN TO RUN...THOUGH MANY DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS.  THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER
THIS MORNING WITH A SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST TRACK TO THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS OF THIS SYSTEM.  FOR NOW AM PREFERRING THE SLIGHTLY
LESS PHASED AND MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS.  WITH
THAT...WE ARE LOOKING AT SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW CONTINUING ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NW WISCONSIN TO BE THE MOST
AFFECTED...WITH A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE 24
HOUR PERIOD...WITH MOST OF IT FALLING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE IS LOOKING LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES.  FULLY EXPECT THIS TO BE
ADJUSTED SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO CANNOT PUT TOO
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST FOR NOW.  A DUMP OF COLD AIR PUSHES
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 28 BELOW.
ON WEDNESDAY I EXPECT A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

THE COLD AIR DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...WHICH
CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  BETWEEN THE SUNSHINE THAT WE CAN
EXPECT IN THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WE
SHOULD GET SOME FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGES...AND ALREADY ON
THURSDAY HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FROM LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AND
SHOULD BRING SOME SMALL SNOW CHANCES.  WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL NOT BE QUITE SO LARGE.  CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE.  SATURDAY TO BE
BACK INTO THE SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AGAIN THOUGH...AND
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 619 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

BAND OF LIGHT SNOW AFFECTING THE TERMINALS AS OF 12Z WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE EAST OUT OF THE AREA...WITH SNOW AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ENDING FOR ALL TERMINALS BY 15Z AND RETURNING TO VFR CONDITIONS.
SOME AFTERNOON CUMULUS TO BE GENERATED THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
VICINITY OF A WEAK TROUGH. THESE SHOULD REMAIN VFR AND HAVE
WRITTEN THE TERMINAL FORECAST SO...BUT A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE. THESE CUMULUS TO DISSIPATE BY 02Z THIS EVENING AND
RETURN TO VFR WITH NORTHWEST WINDS...ALSO DIMINISHING TO LESS THAN
10KTS BY 02Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  20   5  24  14 /  20  10   0  50
INL  17  -3  24  13 /  10  10   0  30
BRD  23   2  26  16 /  10   0  10  60
HYR  22   1  25  14 /  30  10   0  50
ASX  24   7  26  15 /  10  10   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 010927
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...SOME
CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT
AND MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW
ARE PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT TO PRODUCE THESE SHOWERS...AND AS
THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD A NARROW WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL PUSH IN
ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW THE SNOW TO END AND POSSIBLY MIX OUT SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING. LATEST VISIBLE SAT SHOWS A
DECENT AMT OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NW
MN...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY...AND AS A
SECONDARY S/W DROPS IN FROM THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON THE
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING IN THE BL AND WEAK CAA
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN AREA OF
STRATO-CUMULUS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES FAIRLY DEEP FOR EARLY MARCH...SO ADDED SCT FLURRIES
TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A BUILDING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WILL ALLOW THE CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET. THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ALLOWS FOR A
RETURN SLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING IN A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SW IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME RANGE IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS ARE IMPROVING IN
CONSISTENCY BOTH FROM RUN TO RUN...THOUGH MANY DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS.  THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER
THIS MORNING WITH A SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST TRACK TO THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS OF THIS SYSTEM.  FOR NOW AM PREFERRING THE SLIGHTLY
LESS PHASED AND MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS.  WITH
THAT...WE ARE LOOKING AT SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW CONTINUING ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NW WISCONSIN TO BE THE MOST
AFFECTED...WITH A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE 24
HOUR PERIOD...WITH MOST OF IT FALLING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE IS LOOKING LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES.  FULLY EXPECT THIS TO BE
ADJUSTED SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO CANNOT PUT TOO
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST FOR NOW.  A DUMP OF COLD AIR PUSHES
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 28 BELOW.
ON WEDNESDAY I EXPECT A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

THE COLD AIR DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...WHICH
CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  BETWEEN THE SUNSHINE THAT WE CAN
EXPECT IN THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WE
SHOULD GET SOME FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGES...AND ALREADY ON
THURSDAY HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FROM LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AND
SHOULD BRING SOME SMALL SNOW CHANCES.  WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL NOT BE QUITE SO LARGE.  CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE.  SATURDAY TO BE
BACK INTO THE SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AGAIN THOUGH...AND
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF A SFC TROF. THIS IS A FAST MOVING AREA OF SNOW AND WILL BE EAST
OF THE TERMINALS BY 12Z...THEN VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  20   5  24  14 /  20  10   0  50
INL  17  -3  24  13 /  10  10   0  30
BRD  23   2  26  16 /  10   0  10  60
HYR  22   1  25  14 /  30  10   0  50
ASX  24   7  26  15 /  10  10   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 010927
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

GENERALLY QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH SNOW
SHOWERS THIS MORNING TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST...SOME
CLEARING OF THE CLOUD COVER IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE A DECK OF STRATO-CUMULUS DEVELOPS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TONIGHT
AND MAINTAINS ITS INFLUENCE ON THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

COLD CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THIS MORNING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES WITHIN THE FLOW
ARE PROVIDING THE NECESSARY LIFT TO PRODUCE THESE SHOWERS...AND AS
THE SYSTEM TRANSLATES EWD A NARROW WEDGE OF DRY AIR WILL PUSH IN
ACROSS THE AREA TO ALLOW THE SNOW TO END AND POSSIBLY MIX OUT SOME
OF THE CLOUD COVER LATE THIS MORNING. LATEST VISIBLE SAT SHOWS A
DECENT AMT OF CLEARING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NW
MN...WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE MORNING. THE LARGE
SCALE FLOW WILL REMAIN CYCLONIC THROUGH THE DAY...AND AS A
SECONDARY S/W DROPS IN FROM THE NW IN THE AFTERNOON THE
COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY STRONG HEATING IN THE BL AND WEAK CAA
ALOFT WILL PRODUCE STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AN AREA OF
STRATO-CUMULUS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW FLURRIES AS WELL AS THE DEPTH OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BECOMES FAIRLY DEEP FOR EARLY MARCH...SO ADDED SCT FLURRIES
TO THE FORECAST AS WELL.

INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT AND A BUILDING SFC RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WILL ALLOW THE CLOUD COVER TO DISSIPATE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AND KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS FAIRLY QUIET. THE
RIDGE MOVES TO THE EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND ALLOWS FOR A
RETURN SLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING IN A
SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR MASS AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 20S. SHOULD SEE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MOST OF THE DAY
MONDAY...WITH CLOUD COVER SLOWLY INCREASING FROM THE SW IN THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE NEXT WINTER SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST SUN MAR 1 2015

THE MAIN CONCERN DURING THIS TIME RANGE IS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...BRINGING
SNOW TO MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS ARE IMPROVING IN
CONSISTENCY BOTH FROM RUN TO RUN...THOUGH MANY DIFFERENCES REMAIN
BETWEEN DIFFERENT MODELS.  THE NAM SEEMS TO BE A BIT OF AN OUTLIER
THIS MORNING WITH A SLOWER AND FARTHER WEST TRACK TO THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH PERHAPS A BIT MORE PHASING BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS OF THIS SYSTEM.  FOR NOW AM PREFERRING THE SLIGHTLY
LESS PHASED AND MORE CONSISTENT GFS AND ECMWF FORECASTS.  WITH
THAT...WE ARE LOOKING AT SNOW MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH SNOW CONTINUING ON TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  NW WISCONSIN TO BE THE MOST
AFFECTED...WITH A BROAD AREA OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER THE 24
HOUR PERIOD...WITH MOST OF IT FALLING DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE IS LOOKING LIKE 1 TO 3 INCHES.  FULLY EXPECT THIS TO BE
ADJUSTED SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...SO CANNOT PUT TOO
MUCH CONFIDENCE IN THIS FORECAST FOR NOW.  A DUMP OF COLD AIR PUSHES
INTO THE AREA BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 28 BELOW.
ON WEDNESDAY I EXPECT A COLD AND BLUSTERY DAY WITH NORTHWEST WINDS
AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.

THE COLD AIR DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS
AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE AREA...WHICH
CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.  BETWEEN THE SUNSHINE THAT WE CAN
EXPECT IN THE RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND THE WARM AIR ADVECTION WE
SHOULD GET SOME FAIRLY LARGE DIURNAL RANGES...AND ALREADY ON
THURSDAY HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FROM LOWS IN THE TEENS BELOW
ZERO.  ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS DUE TO MOVE THROUGH ON FRIDAY...AND
SHOULD BRING SOME SMALL SNOW CHANCES.  WITH THE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER THE DIURNAL RANGE WILL NOT BE QUITE SO LARGE.  CURRENTLY HAVE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S...BUT THESE MAY NEED TO BE
LOWERED DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF THE SHORTWAVE.  SATURDAY TO BE
BACK INTO THE SUNSHINE AND WARM AIR ADVECTION AGAIN THOUGH...AND
HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF A SFC TROF. THIS IS A FAST MOVING AREA OF SNOW AND WILL BE EAST
OF THE TERMINALS BY 12Z...THEN VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  20   5  24  14 /  20  10   0  50
INL  17  -3  24  13 /  10  10   0  30
BRD  23   2  26  16 /  10   0  10  60
HYR  22   1  25  14 /  30  10   0  50
ASX  24   7  26  15 /  10  10   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 010527
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1127 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW APPEARS TO BE FALLING APART AS IT TRIES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MADE MORE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW IS JUST REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM.
THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE CLEARING
LINE IS AT THE MN/ND BORDER. ADJUSTED POPS/WX/SKY ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE
REMOVED. SKY HAS ALSO CLEARED AND ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF A SFC TROF. THIS IS A FAST MOVING AREA OF SNOW AND WILL BE EAST
OF THE TERMINALS BY 12Z...THEN VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  10  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 010527
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1127 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW APPEARS TO BE FALLING APART AS IT TRIES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MADE MORE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW IS JUST REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM.
THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE CLEARING
LINE IS AT THE MN/ND BORDER. ADJUSTED POPS/WX/SKY ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE
REMOVED. SKY HAS ALSO CLEARED AND ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF A SFC TROF. THIS IS A FAST MOVING AREA OF SNOW AND WILL BE EAST
OF THE TERMINALS BY 12Z...THEN VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  10  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 010527
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1127 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW APPEARS TO BE FALLING APART AS IT TRIES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MADE MORE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW IS JUST REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM.
THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE CLEARING
LINE IS AT THE MN/ND BORDER. ADJUSTED POPS/WX/SKY ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE
REMOVED. SKY HAS ALSO CLEARED AND ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF A SFC TROF. THIS IS A FAST MOVING AREA OF SNOW AND WILL BE EAST
OF THE TERMINALS BY 12Z...THEN VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  10  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 010527
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1127 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW APPEARS TO BE FALLING APART AS IT TRIES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MADE MORE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW IS JUST REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM.
THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE CLEARING
LINE IS AT THE MN/ND BORDER. ADJUSTED POPS/WX/SKY ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE
REMOVED. SKY HAS ALSO CLEARED AND ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1127 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR ACROSS THE TERMINALS AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
CROSSES THROUGH THE AREA. PERIODS OF LIGHT SNOW WILL OCCUR AHEAD
OF A SFC TROF. THIS IS A FAST MOVING AREA OF SNOW AND WILL BE EAST
OF THE TERMINALS BY 12Z...THEN VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  10  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 010328
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
928 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW APPEARS TO BE FALLING APART AS IT TRIES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MADE MORE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW IS JUST REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM.
THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE CLEARING
LINE IS AT THE MN/ND BORDER. ADJUSTED POPS/WX/SKY ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE
REMOVED. SKY HAS ALSO CLEARED AND ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST AHEAD OF A SFC TROF THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH MVFR ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE TROF AND WILL AFFECT ALL
LOCATIONS...THEN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 09Z. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL HAPPEN AFTER TROF PASSAGE. PERIODIC GUSTY
SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE TROF.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  10  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 010328
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
928 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 927 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW APPEARS TO BE FALLING APART AS IT TRIES TO PROGRESS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. MADE MORE
ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 750 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW IS JUST REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM.
THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE CLEARING
LINE IS AT THE MN/ND BORDER. ADJUSTED POPS/WX/SKY ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE
REMOVED. SKY HAS ALSO CLEARED AND ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST AHEAD OF A SFC TROF THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH MVFR ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE TROF AND WILL AFFECT ALL
LOCATIONS...THEN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 09Z. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL HAPPEN AFTER TROF PASSAGE. PERIODIC GUSTY
SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE TROF.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  10  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 010150
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
750 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW IS JUST REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM.
THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE CLEARING
LINE IS AT THE MN/ND BORDER. ADJUSTED POPS/WX/SKY ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE
REMOVED. SKY HAS ALSO CLEARED AND ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST AHEAD OF A SFC TROF THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH MVFR ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE TROF AND WILL AFFECT ALL
LOCATIONS...THEN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 09Z. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL HAPPEN AFTER TROF PASSAGE. PERIODIC GUSTY
SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE TROF.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  30  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 010150
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
750 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW IS JUST REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM.
THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE CLEARING
LINE IS AT THE MN/ND BORDER. ADJUSTED POPS/WX/SKY ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE
REMOVED. SKY HAS ALSO CLEARED AND ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST AHEAD OF A SFC TROF THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH MVFR ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE TROF AND WILL AFFECT ALL
LOCATIONS...THEN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 09Z. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL HAPPEN AFTER TROF PASSAGE. PERIODIC GUSTY
SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE TROF.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  30  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 010150
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
750 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 750 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SNOW IS JUST REACHING THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ATTM.
THIS WILL BE A FAST MOVING PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW AS THE CLEARING
LINE IS AT THE MN/ND BORDER. ADJUSTED POPS/WX/SKY ACCORDINGLY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE
REMOVED. SKY HAS ALSO CLEARED AND ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST AHEAD OF A SFC TROF THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH MVFR ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE TROF AND WILL AFFECT ALL
LOCATIONS...THEN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 09Z. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL HAPPEN AFTER TROF PASSAGE. PERIODIC GUSTY
SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE TROF.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  30  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 282323
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
523 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE
REMOVED. SKY HAS ALSO CLEARED AND ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST AHEAD OF A SFC TROF THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH MVFR ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE TROF AND WILL AFFECT ALL
LOCATIONS...THEN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 09Z. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL HAPPEN AFTER TROF PASSAGE. PERIODIC GUSTY
SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE TROF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  20  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 282323
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
523 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE
REMOVED. SKY HAS ALSO CLEARED AND ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST AHEAD OF A SFC TROF THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH MVFR ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE TROF AND WILL AFFECT ALL
LOCATIONS...THEN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 09Z. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL HAPPEN AFTER TROF PASSAGE. PERIODIC GUSTY
SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE TROF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  20  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 282323
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
523 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE
REMOVED. SKY HAS ALSO CLEARED AND ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST AHEAD OF A SFC TROF THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH MVFR ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE TROF AND WILL AFFECT ALL
LOCATIONS...THEN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 09Z. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL HAPPEN AFTER TROF PASSAGE. PERIODIC GUSTY
SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE TROF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  20  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 282323
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
523 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE
REMOVED. SKY HAS ALSO CLEARED AND ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 523 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST AHEAD OF A SFC TROF THAT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z. AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW WITH MVFR ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE TROF AND WILL AFFECT ALL
LOCATIONS...THEN GRADUALLY ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 09Z. AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WILL HAPPEN AFTER TROF PASSAGE. PERIODIC GUSTY
SFC WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND AHEAD OF THE TROF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  20  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 282231
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
431 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE
REMOVED. SKY HAS ALSO CLEARED AND ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LAYER OF CIRRUS ABOVE 10K FT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER 00Z...MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/SFC
FRONT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION.
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSING
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED...ONCE TIMING IS BETTER
REFINED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  20  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING









000
FXUS63 KDLH 282231
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
431 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE
REMOVED. SKY HAS ALSO CLEARED AND ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LAYER OF CIRRUS ABOVE 10K FT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER 00Z...MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/SFC
FRONT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION.
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSING
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED...ONCE TIMING IS BETTER
REFINED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  20  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 282231
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
431 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE
REMOVED. SKY HAS ALSO CLEARED AND ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LAYER OF CIRRUS ABOVE 10K FT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER 00Z...MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/SFC
FRONT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION.
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSING
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED...ONCE TIMING IS BETTER
REFINED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  20  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING









000
FXUS63 KDLH 282231
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
431 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 430 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

THE SNOW HAS ENDED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND HAVE
REMOVED. SKY HAS ALSO CLEARED AND ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LAYER OF CIRRUS ABOVE 10K FT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER 00Z...MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/SFC
FRONT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE ACCUMULATION.
PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE PASSING
SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER FLIGHT
CATEGORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED...ONCE TIMING IS BETTER
REFINED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  20  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 282115
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LAYER OF CIRRUS ABOVE 10 KFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER 00Z...MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/SFC
FRONT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATION. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED...ONCE TIMING IS
BETTER REFINED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  20  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 282115
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LAYER OF CIRRUS ABOVE 10 KFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER 00Z...MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/SFC
FRONT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATION. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED...ONCE TIMING IS
BETTER REFINED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  20  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 282115
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LAYER OF CIRRUS ABOVE 10 KFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER 00Z...MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/SFC
FRONT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATION. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED...ONCE TIMING IS
BETTER REFINED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  20  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 282115
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

AT 315 PM...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND HAD SUNNY SKIES AND GUSTY SSW
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WAS INLAND...HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF COOK
COUNTY ON THE NORTH SHORE...WHERE LAKE ENHANCEMENT AND OROGRAPHIC
EFFECTS WERE RESULTING IN OVC CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WERE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 20S.
THERE WAS AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND FAR NW
MINNESOTA. THE CLOUDY SKIES AHEAD OF AND NEAR THE TROUGH WERE
BEGINNING TO SPREAD INTO THE FAR WESTERN FORECAST AREA.

THE TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. THIS TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
CLOUDY SKIES AND THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY LIGHT SNOWFALL. IF THERE
ARE ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THEN IT SHOULD NOT BE MORE THAN A
DUSTING. THE CLOUD COVER WILL BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES AND KEEP
THE LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE ZERO.

THERE WILL LIKELY BE A PERIOD OF PARTIAL CLEARING SUNDAY MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY AND COOL
WNW FLOW WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND SOME
AREAS COULD SEE SNOW FLURRIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH
THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

A BROAD AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING H85
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY.

FOCUS TURNS TO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY WHERE LONG RANGE MODELS
CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THE NORTHERN STREAM OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH
DIVES ACROSS MANITOBA/ONTARIO MONDAY NIGHT...WHILE PHASING WITH
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY. A STRONG
THERMAL BOUNDARY WILL DEVELOP IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS/OHIO RIVER VALLEY DURING THIS TIME...WITH A CORRIDOR
OF SNOW...POTENTIALLY HEAVY...FOUND ON THE NORTHERN FLANK OF THE
STRONG FRONTOGENESIS. AT THIS TIME LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THE AXIS OF HEAVY SNOW PUSHES AS FAR NORTH AS THE WIS ZONES...WITH
ONLY LIGHT SNOW WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUM FOR THE NORTHERN
AREAS. HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM REMAINS SEVERAL DAYS AWAY SO TRACK
AND TIMING WILL CONTINUE TO BE REFINED.

AS THE LOW BECOMES CUT OFF OVER THE HUDSON BAY REGION...A CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR WILL SURGE INTO THE NORTHLAND FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LAYER OF CIRRUS ABOVE 10 KFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER 00Z...MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/SFC
FRONT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATION. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED...ONCE TIMING IS
BETTER REFINED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   6  22   2  25 /  20  10   0   0
INL   5  19  -6  24 /  30  10   0   0
BRD   4  24   1  26 /  20  10   0   0
HYR   5  23   0  25 /  20  10  10   0
ASX   9  24   3  26 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 281751
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1151 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 315 AM
CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE
THE NORTHLAND...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

A COLD SATURDAY MORNING TO START THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO.
THE COLDEST AIR THIS MORNING IS BEING REPORTED THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD AND INTO PORTIONS OF NW WI.

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM PREPARES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS. MOST OF TODAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER N-CENTRAL MN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE FIRST OF TWO EMBEDDED SHRT WVS
ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE JUST A DUSTING OF SNOW
THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ARROWHEAD
POSSIBLY RECEIVING AROUND A HALF TO 1 INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD TONIGHT WITH AN ABUNDANT AMT OF CLOUD
COVER. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT DRAINING IN WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
CLOUDS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SECOND WAVE MOVES IN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER NE MN. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL FEEL QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA.  SOME EVENING LAKE EFFECT IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS MINIMAL FOR NOW.  MONDAY TO REMAIN QUIET WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY VERY INTERESTING
ACROSS THE REGION AS A SPLIT WAVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LAST THREE RUNS OF
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHEAST...EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
AROUND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY AS WE ARE CLOSE TO
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AND A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH IN THE TRACK COULD REALLY REDUCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL.  IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT SOUTH
DUE TO THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS
TIME.  HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE STILL HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE.

THE TUESDAY SYSTEM TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 26 BELOW NOT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
BUT GETTING THERE.  MODERATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FOR THURSDAY AND WARMER YET FOR
FRIDAY.  HAVE GOT SOME UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S IN THERE FOR NOW BUT
ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO SHIFT THIS DOWN DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE TUESDAY SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LAYER OF CIRRUS ABOVE 10 KFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER 00Z...MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/SFC
FRONT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATION. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED...ONCE TIMING IS
BETTER REFINED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19   9  23   0 /   0  20  10   0
INL  23   5  20  -6 /   0  30  20   0
BRD  22   5  25   1 /   0  20  10   0
HYR  19   9  24  -1 /   0  20  20  10
ASX  22  12  26   3 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 281751
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1151 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 315 AM
CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE
THE NORTHLAND...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

A COLD SATURDAY MORNING TO START THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO.
THE COLDEST AIR THIS MORNING IS BEING REPORTED THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD AND INTO PORTIONS OF NW WI.

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM PREPARES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS. MOST OF TODAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER N-CENTRAL MN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE FIRST OF TWO EMBEDDED SHRT WVS
ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE JUST A DUSTING OF SNOW
THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ARROWHEAD
POSSIBLY RECEIVING AROUND A HALF TO 1 INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD TONIGHT WITH AN ABUNDANT AMT OF CLOUD
COVER. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT DRAINING IN WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
CLOUDS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SECOND WAVE MOVES IN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER NE MN. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL FEEL QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA.  SOME EVENING LAKE EFFECT IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS MINIMAL FOR NOW.  MONDAY TO REMAIN QUIET WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY VERY INTERESTING
ACROSS THE REGION AS A SPLIT WAVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LAST THREE RUNS OF
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHEAST...EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
AROUND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY AS WE ARE CLOSE TO
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AND A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH IN THE TRACK COULD REALLY REDUCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL.  IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT SOUTH
DUE TO THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS
TIME.  HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE STILL HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE.

THE TUESDAY SYSTEM TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 26 BELOW NOT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
BUT GETTING THERE.  MODERATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FOR THURSDAY AND WARMER YET FOR
FRIDAY.  HAVE GOT SOME UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S IN THERE FOR NOW BUT
ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO SHIFT THIS DOWN DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE TUESDAY SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LAYER OF CIRRUS ABOVE 10 KFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER 00Z...MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/SFC
FRONT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATION. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED...ONCE TIMING IS
BETTER REFINED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19   9  23   0 /   0  20  10   0
INL  23   5  20  -6 /   0  30  20   0
BRD  22   5  25   1 /   0  20  10   0
HYR  19   9  24  -1 /   0  20  20  10
ASX  22  12  26   3 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 281751
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1151 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 315 AM
CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE
THE NORTHLAND...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

A COLD SATURDAY MORNING TO START THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO.
THE COLDEST AIR THIS MORNING IS BEING REPORTED THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD AND INTO PORTIONS OF NW WI.

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM PREPARES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS. MOST OF TODAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER N-CENTRAL MN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE FIRST OF TWO EMBEDDED SHRT WVS
ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE JUST A DUSTING OF SNOW
THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ARROWHEAD
POSSIBLY RECEIVING AROUND A HALF TO 1 INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD TONIGHT WITH AN ABUNDANT AMT OF CLOUD
COVER. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT DRAINING IN WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
CLOUDS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SECOND WAVE MOVES IN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER NE MN. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL FEEL QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA.  SOME EVENING LAKE EFFECT IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS MINIMAL FOR NOW.  MONDAY TO REMAIN QUIET WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY VERY INTERESTING
ACROSS THE REGION AS A SPLIT WAVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LAST THREE RUNS OF
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHEAST...EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
AROUND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY AS WE ARE CLOSE TO
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AND A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH IN THE TRACK COULD REALLY REDUCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL.  IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT SOUTH
DUE TO THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS
TIME.  HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE STILL HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE.

THE TUESDAY SYSTEM TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 26 BELOW NOT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
BUT GETTING THERE.  MODERATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FOR THURSDAY AND WARMER YET FOR
FRIDAY.  HAVE GOT SOME UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S IN THERE FOR NOW BUT
ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO SHIFT THIS DOWN DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE TUESDAY SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LAYER OF CIRRUS ABOVE 10 KFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER 00Z...MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/SFC
FRONT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATION. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED...ONCE TIMING IS
BETTER REFINED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19   9  23   0 /   0  20  10   0
INL  23   5  20  -6 /   0  30  20   0
BRD  22   5  25   1 /   0  20  10   0
HYR  19   9  24  -1 /   0  20  20  10
ASX  22  12  26   3 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 281751
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1151 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON) ISSUED AT 315 AM
CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE
THE NORTHLAND...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

A COLD SATURDAY MORNING TO START THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO.
THE COLDEST AIR THIS MORNING IS BEING REPORTED THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD AND INTO PORTIONS OF NW WI.

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM PREPARES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS. MOST OF TODAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER N-CENTRAL MN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE FIRST OF TWO EMBEDDED SHRT WVS
ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE JUST A DUSTING OF SNOW
THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ARROWHEAD
POSSIBLY RECEIVING AROUND A HALF TO 1 INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD TONIGHT WITH AN ABUNDANT AMT OF CLOUD
COVER. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT DRAINING IN WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
CLOUDS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SECOND WAVE MOVES IN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER NE MN. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL FEEL QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA.  SOME EVENING LAKE EFFECT IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS MINIMAL FOR NOW.  MONDAY TO REMAIN QUIET WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY VERY INTERESTING
ACROSS THE REGION AS A SPLIT WAVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LAST THREE RUNS OF
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHEAST...EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
AROUND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY AS WE ARE CLOSE TO
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AND A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH IN THE TRACK COULD REALLY REDUCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL.  IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT SOUTH
DUE TO THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS
TIME.  HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE STILL HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE.

THE TUESDAY SYSTEM TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 26 BELOW NOT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
BUT GETTING THERE.  MODERATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FOR THURSDAY AND WARMER YET FOR
FRIDAY.  HAVE GOT SOME UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S IN THERE FOR NOW BUT
ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO SHIFT THIS DOWN DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE TUESDAY SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WITH A LAYER OF CIRRUS ABOVE 10 KFT WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AFTER 00Z...MID LEVEL CEILINGS WILL
BEGIN TO ADVANCE FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH/SFC
FRONT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES TO SWEEP OVER THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH LITTLE OR NO MEASURABLE
ACCUMULATION. PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THE PASSING SNOW SHOWERS. TEMPO GROUPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORY WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED...ONCE TIMING IS
BETTER REFINED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19   9  23   0 /   0  20  10   0
INL  23   5  20  -6 /   0  30  20   0
BRD  22   5  25   1 /   0  20  10   0
HYR  19   9  24  -1 /   0  20  20  10
ASX  22  12  26   3 /   0  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 281128
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
528 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE
THE NORTHLAND...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

A COLD SATURDAY MORNING TO START THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO.
THE COLDEST AIR THIS MORNING IS BEING REPORTED THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD AND INTO PORTIONS OF NW WI.

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM PREPARES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS. MOST OF TODAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER N-CENTRAL MN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE FIRST OF TWO EMBEDDED SHRT WVS
ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE JUST A DUSTING OF SNOW
THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ARROWHEAD
POSSIBLY RECEIVING AROUND A HALF TO 1 INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD TONIGHT WITH AN ABUNDANT AMT OF CLOUD
COVER. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT DRAINING IN WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
CLOUDS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SECOND WAVE MOVES IN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER NE MN. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL FEEL QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA.  SOME EVENING LAKE EFFECT IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS MINIMAL FOR NOW.  MONDAY TO REMAIN QUIET WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY VERY INTERESTING
ACROSS THE REGION AS A SPLIT WAVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LAST THREE RUNS OF
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHEAST...EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
AROUND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY AS WE ARE CLOSE TO
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AND A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH IN THE TRACK COULD REALLY REDUCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL.  IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT SOUTH
DUE TO THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS
TIME.  HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE STILL HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE.

THE TUESDAY SYSTEM TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 26 BELOW NOT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
BUT GETTING THERE.  MODERATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FOR THURSDAY AND WARMER YET FOR
FRIDAY.  HAVE GOT SOME UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S IN THERE FOR NOW BUT
ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO SHIFT THIS DOWN DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE TUESDAY SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 527 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AFTER
21Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH EACH SITE GETTING A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD
OF LIGHT SNOW WITH MVFR CEILINGS. MVFR VISIBILITIES ALSO POSSIBLE
BUT HAVE LEFT OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN. MVFR
CEILINGS TO LINGER BEHIND PERIOD OF SNOW...BUT TO BEGIN TO CLEAR
TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST AFTER 08Z.

LE

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19   9  23   0 /  10  20  10   0
INL  23   5  20  -6 /  20  20  20   0
BRD  22   5  25   1 /  10  20  10   0
HYR  19   9  24  -1 /  10  20  20  10
ASX  22  12  26   3 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 280917
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
317 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE
THE NORTHLAND...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

A COLD SATURDAY MORNING TO START THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO.
THE COLDEST AIR THIS MORNING IS BEING REPORTED THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD AND INTO PORTIONS OF NW WI.

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM PREPARES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS. MOST OF TODAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER N-CENTRAL MN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE FIRST OF TWO EMBEDDED SHRT WVS
ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE JUST A DUSTING OF SNOW
THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ARROWHEAD
POSSIBLY RECEIVING AROUND A HALF TO 1 INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD TONIGHT WITH AN ABUNDANT AMT OF CLOUD
COVER. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT DRAINING IN WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
CLOUDS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SECOND WAVE MOVES IN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER NE MN. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL FEEL QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA.  SOME EVENING LAKE EFFECT IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS MINIMAL FOR NOW.  MONDAY TO REMAIN QUIET WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY VERY INTERESTING
ACROSS THE REGION AS A SPLIT WAVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LAST THREE RUNS OF
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHEAST...EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
AROUND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY AS WE ARE CLOSE TO
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AND A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH IN THE TRACK COULD REALLY REDUCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL.  IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT SOUTH
DUE TO THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS
TIME.  HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE STILL HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE.

THE TUESDAY SYSTEM TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 26 BELOW NOT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
BUT GETTING THERE.  MODERATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FOR THURSDAY AND WARMER YET FOR
FRIDAY.  HAVE GOT SOME UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S IN THERE FOR NOW BUT
ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO SHIFT THIS DOWN DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE TUESDAY SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z. AS A SFC
TROF GETS CLOSER SATURDAY EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/APPROACH THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. MVFR CIGS WILL REACH BRD BY 02Z WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19   9  23   0 /  10  20  10   0
INL  23   5  20  -6 /  20  20  20   0
BRD  22   5  25   1 /  10  20  10   0
HYR  19   9  24  -1 /  10  20  20  10
ASX  22  12  26   3 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 280917
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
317 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE
THE NORTHLAND...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

A COLD SATURDAY MORNING TO START THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO.
THE COLDEST AIR THIS MORNING IS BEING REPORTED THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD AND INTO PORTIONS OF NW WI.

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM PREPARES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS. MOST OF TODAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER N-CENTRAL MN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE FIRST OF TWO EMBEDDED SHRT WVS
ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE JUST A DUSTING OF SNOW
THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ARROWHEAD
POSSIBLY RECEIVING AROUND A HALF TO 1 INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD TONIGHT WITH AN ABUNDANT AMT OF CLOUD
COVER. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT DRAINING IN WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
CLOUDS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SECOND WAVE MOVES IN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER NE MN. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL FEEL QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA.  SOME EVENING LAKE EFFECT IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS MINIMAL FOR NOW.  MONDAY TO REMAIN QUIET WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY VERY INTERESTING
ACROSS THE REGION AS A SPLIT WAVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LAST THREE RUNS OF
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHEAST...EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
AROUND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY AS WE ARE CLOSE TO
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AND A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH IN THE TRACK COULD REALLY REDUCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL.  IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT SOUTH
DUE TO THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS
TIME.  HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE STILL HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE.

THE TUESDAY SYSTEM TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 26 BELOW NOT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
BUT GETTING THERE.  MODERATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FOR THURSDAY AND WARMER YET FOR
FRIDAY.  HAVE GOT SOME UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S IN THERE FOR NOW BUT
ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO SHIFT THIS DOWN DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE TUESDAY SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z. AS A SFC
TROF GETS CLOSER SATURDAY EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/APPROACH THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. MVFR CIGS WILL REACH BRD BY 02Z WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19   9  23   0 /  10  20  10   0
INL  23   5  20  -6 /  20  20  20   0
BRD  22   5  25   1 /  10  20  10   0
HYR  19   9  24  -1 /  10  20  20  10
ASX  22  12  26   3 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 280917
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
317 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE
THE NORTHLAND...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

A COLD SATURDAY MORNING TO START THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO.
THE COLDEST AIR THIS MORNING IS BEING REPORTED THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD AND INTO PORTIONS OF NW WI.

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM PREPARES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS. MOST OF TODAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER N-CENTRAL MN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE FIRST OF TWO EMBEDDED SHRT WVS
ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE JUST A DUSTING OF SNOW
THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ARROWHEAD
POSSIBLY RECEIVING AROUND A HALF TO 1 INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD TONIGHT WITH AN ABUNDANT AMT OF CLOUD
COVER. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT DRAINING IN WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
CLOUDS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SECOND WAVE MOVES IN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER NE MN. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL FEEL QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA.  SOME EVENING LAKE EFFECT IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS MINIMAL FOR NOW.  MONDAY TO REMAIN QUIET WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY VERY INTERESTING
ACROSS THE REGION AS A SPLIT WAVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LAST THREE RUNS OF
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHEAST...EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
AROUND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY AS WE ARE CLOSE TO
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AND A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH IN THE TRACK COULD REALLY REDUCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL.  IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT SOUTH
DUE TO THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS
TIME.  HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE STILL HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE.

THE TUESDAY SYSTEM TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 26 BELOW NOT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
BUT GETTING THERE.  MODERATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FOR THURSDAY AND WARMER YET FOR
FRIDAY.  HAVE GOT SOME UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S IN THERE FOR NOW BUT
ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO SHIFT THIS DOWN DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE TUESDAY SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z. AS A SFC
TROF GETS CLOSER SATURDAY EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/APPROACH THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. MVFR CIGS WILL REACH BRD BY 02Z WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19   9  23   0 /  10  20  10   0
INL  23   5  20  -6 /  20  20  20   0
BRD  22   5  25   1 /  10  20  10   0
HYR  19   9  24  -1 /  10  20  20  10
ASX  22  12  26   3 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 280917
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
317 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL DEVELOPING LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTH
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT ACROSS THE
THE NORTHLAND...WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT...GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
INCH.

A COLD SATURDAY MORNING TO START THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
IN PLACE OVER THE REGION AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DIP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO.
THE COLDEST AIR THIS MORNING IS BEING REPORTED THROUGH THE
ARROWHEAD AND INTO PORTIONS OF NW WI.

THE SFC RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE EAST TODAY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM PREPARES TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES AND DAKOTAS. MOST OF TODAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S.
CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER N-CENTRAL MN IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING AS THE FIRST OF TWO EMBEDDED SHRT WVS
ROTATE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES. THE INITIAL WAVE
WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO A LIMITED AMT OF MOISTURE AS IT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE JUST A DUSTING OF SNOW
THROUGH SUN MORNING...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN THE ARROWHEAD
POSSIBLY RECEIVING AROUND A HALF TO 1 INCH. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD TONIGHT WITH AN ABUNDANT AMT OF CLOUD
COVER. LOWS WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

COULD SEE A FEW PEAKS OF SUN ON SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE PERSISTENT
CYCLONIC FLOW AND COLD AIR ALOFT DRAINING IN WILL LIKELY KEEP THE
CLOUDS AROUND MOST OF THE DAY WITH PERIODS OF FLURRIES THROUGH THE
DAY. THE SECOND WAVE MOVES IN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME SUNDAY...WITH ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE...MAINLY
OVER NE MN. ONLY LIGHT AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL FEEL QUITE WARM WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 AM CST SAT FEB 28 2015

SUNDAY NIGHT SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES IN THE EVENING
SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY AS THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES ACROSS
SOUTH DAKOTA.  SOME EVENING LAKE EFFECT IS POSSIBLE IN THE EARLY
EVENING...BUT THE TRAJECTORY IS NOT VERY FAVORABLE AND HAVE KEPT
POPS MINIMAL FOR NOW.  MONDAY TO REMAIN QUIET WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS SLOWLY SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE AREA.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE VERY VERY INTERESTING
ACROSS THE REGION AS A SPLIT WAVE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...WITH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO
WESTERN ONTARIO TUESDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN KANSAS WITH A BROADER UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES.  THIS SYSTEM TO BRING A SIGNIFICANT CHANCE OF SNOW TO THE
SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.  THE LAST THREE RUNS OF
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTHEAST...EVEN AS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES TO SHIFT
AROUND.  WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS VERY CAREFULLY AS WE ARE CLOSE TO
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHERN SYSTEM...AND A SMALL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTH IN THE TRACK COULD REALLY REDUCE THE SNOW POTENTIAL.  IN
FACT...WOULD NOT BE VERY SURPRISED TO SEE THIS SYSTEM SHIFT SOUTH
DUE TO THE DEEP SNOWPACK ACROSS IOWA AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT THIS
TIME.  HAVE RAISED POPS ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST...BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
ARE STILL HIGHLY QUESTIONABLE.

THE TUESDAY SYSTEM TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF COLD
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 26 BELOW NOT THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
BUT GETTING THERE.  MODERATION IS EXPECTED INTO THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK AS HIGHS RISE INTO THE TEENS FOR THURSDAY AND WARMER YET FOR
FRIDAY.  HAVE GOT SOME UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S IN THERE FOR NOW BUT
ANTICIPATE WE WILL NEED TO SHIFT THIS DOWN DEPENDING ON WHAT HAPPENS
WITH THE TUESDAY SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z. AS A SFC
TROF GETS CLOSER SATURDAY EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/APPROACH THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. MVFR CIGS WILL REACH BRD BY 02Z WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19   9  23   0 /  10  20  10   0
INL  23   5  20  -6 /  20  20  20   0
BRD  22   5  25   1 /  10  20  10   0
HYR  19   9  24  -1 /  10  20  20  10
ASX  22  12  26   3 /  10  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 280510
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1110 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND PRECIP
FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TONIGHTS
LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALES THAT NEAR WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 TO 25
BELOW ZERO.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHLAND. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. WE HAVE AN
AREA OF SMALL POPS FOR SOME SNOW OVER OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE CLOUD COVER AND SW FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BOLSTER
TEMPERATURES AND PUT AN END TO THE STRING OF SUBZERO NIGHTS. THE
TROUGH COULD PRODUCE A DUSTING OF SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBZERO OR CLOSE TO ZERO THANKS TO THE CLEAR SKIES.

THE SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THE NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A
COLORADO LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND REACH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM LOW
TRACKS ARE SURPRISING SIMILAR...FROM SW KANSAS TO NORTH OF DETROIT.
THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND STANDS A
GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA OF GETTING SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE NORTHLAND WILL ESCAPE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE SE FORECAST AREA
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLORADO LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET TO WELL
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY. DESPITE THE COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RECOVER WELL THURSDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE SUNNIER SKIES
AND...INCREASINGLY MORE AND MORE POWERFUL SUN ANGLE...AND THE PINE
TREE ALBEDO EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING MILDER...PACIFIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKS. THE NORTHLAND STANDS TO BENEFIT
FROM THIS AIR...AND SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z. AS A SFC
TROF GETS CLOSER SATURDAY EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/APPROACH THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. MVFR CIGS WILL REACH BRD BY 02Z WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -8  20   6  22 /   0   0  20  10
INL -12  22   3  17 /   0  20  20  10
BRD  -7  21   5  23 /   0  10  20   0
HYR -12  18   7  25 /   0   0  20  20
ASX  -5  22   9  25 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 280510
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1110 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND PRECIP
FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TONIGHTS
LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALES THAT NEAR WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 TO 25
BELOW ZERO.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHLAND. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. WE HAVE AN
AREA OF SMALL POPS FOR SOME SNOW OVER OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE CLOUD COVER AND SW FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BOLSTER
TEMPERATURES AND PUT AN END TO THE STRING OF SUBZERO NIGHTS. THE
TROUGH COULD PRODUCE A DUSTING OF SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBZERO OR CLOSE TO ZERO THANKS TO THE CLEAR SKIES.

THE SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THE NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A
COLORADO LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND REACH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM LOW
TRACKS ARE SURPRISING SIMILAR...FROM SW KANSAS TO NORTH OF DETROIT.
THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND STANDS A
GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA OF GETTING SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE NORTHLAND WILL ESCAPE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE SE FORECAST AREA
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLORADO LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET TO WELL
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY. DESPITE THE COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RECOVER WELL THURSDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE SUNNIER SKIES
AND...INCREASINGLY MORE AND MORE POWERFUL SUN ANGLE...AND THE PINE
TREE ALBEDO EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING MILDER...PACIFIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKS. THE NORTHLAND STANDS TO BENEFIT
FROM THIS AIR...AND SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1110 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY. LOW
PRESSURE IN THE WESTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE EASTWARD ON SATURDAY WITH
GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS AFFECTING ALL TERMINALS BY 18Z. AS A SFC
TROF GETS CLOSER SATURDAY EVENING...LIGHT SNOW WILL
DEVELOP/APPROACH THE TERMINALS FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST. MVFR CIGS WILL REACH BRD BY 02Z WITH THE LIGHT
SNOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -8  20   6  22 /   0   0  20  10
INL -12  22   3  17 /   0  20  20  10
BRD  -7  21   5  23 /   0  10  20   0
HYR -12  18   7  25 /   0   0  20  20
ASX  -5  22   9  25 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 272310
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
510 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND PRECIP
FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TONIGHTS
LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALES THAT NEAR WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 TO 25
BELOW ZERO.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHLAND. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. WE HAVE AN
AREA OF SMALL POPS FOR SOME SNOW OVER OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE CLOUD COVER AND SW FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BOLSTER
TEMPERATURES AND PUT AN END TO THE STRING OF SUBZERO NIGHTS. THE
TROUGH COULD PRODUCE A DUSTING OF SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBZERO OR CLOSE TO ZERO THANKS TO THE CLEAR SKIES.

THE SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THE NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A
COLORADO LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND REACH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM LOW
TRACKS ARE SURPRISING SIMILAR...FROM SW KANSAS TO NORTH OF DETROIT.
THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND STANDS A
GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA OF GETTING SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE NORTHLAND WILL ESCAPE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE SE FORECAST AREA
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLORADO LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET TO WELL
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY. DESPITE THE COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RECOVER WELL THURSDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE SUNNIER SKIES
AND...INCREASINGLY MORE AND MORE POWERFUL SUN ANGLE...AND THE PINE
TREE ALBEDO EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING MILDER...PACIFIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKS. THE NORTHLAND STANDS TO BENEFIT
FROM THIS AIR...AND SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z.
ADDED A VCSH MENTION TO BRD AT 21Z AS MODELS ARE POINTING TO SOME
LIGHT SNOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROGGED TO CROSS INTO WESTERN MN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -8  20   6  22 /   0   0  20  10
INL -12  22   3  17 /   0  20  20  10
BRD  -7  21   5  23 /   0  10  20   0
HYR -12  18   7  25 /   0   0  20  20
ASX  -5  22   9  25 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF






000
FXUS63 KDLH 272310
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
510 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND PRECIP
FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TONIGHTS
LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALES THAT NEAR WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 TO 25
BELOW ZERO.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHLAND. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. WE HAVE AN
AREA OF SMALL POPS FOR SOME SNOW OVER OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE CLOUD COVER AND SW FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BOLSTER
TEMPERATURES AND PUT AN END TO THE STRING OF SUBZERO NIGHTS. THE
TROUGH COULD PRODUCE A DUSTING OF SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBZERO OR CLOSE TO ZERO THANKS TO THE CLEAR SKIES.

THE SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THE NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A
COLORADO LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND REACH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM LOW
TRACKS ARE SURPRISING SIMILAR...FROM SW KANSAS TO NORTH OF DETROIT.
THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND STANDS A
GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA OF GETTING SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE NORTHLAND WILL ESCAPE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE SE FORECAST AREA
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLORADO LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET TO WELL
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY. DESPITE THE COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RECOVER WELL THURSDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE SUNNIER SKIES
AND...INCREASINGLY MORE AND MORE POWERFUL SUN ANGLE...AND THE PINE
TREE ALBEDO EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING MILDER...PACIFIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKS. THE NORTHLAND STANDS TO BENEFIT
FROM THIS AIR...AND SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z.
ADDED A VCSH MENTION TO BRD AT 21Z AS MODELS ARE POINTING TO SOME
LIGHT SNOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROGGED TO CROSS INTO WESTERN MN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -8  20   6  22 /   0   0  20  10
INL -12  22   3  17 /   0  20  20  10
BRD  -7  21   5  23 /   0  10  20   0
HYR -12  18   7  25 /   0   0  20  20
ASX  -5  22   9  25 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 272310
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
510 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND PRECIP
FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TONIGHTS
LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALES THAT NEAR WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 TO 25
BELOW ZERO.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHLAND. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. WE HAVE AN
AREA OF SMALL POPS FOR SOME SNOW OVER OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE CLOUD COVER AND SW FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BOLSTER
TEMPERATURES AND PUT AN END TO THE STRING OF SUBZERO NIGHTS. THE
TROUGH COULD PRODUCE A DUSTING OF SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBZERO OR CLOSE TO ZERO THANKS TO THE CLEAR SKIES.

THE SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THE NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A
COLORADO LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND REACH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM LOW
TRACKS ARE SURPRISING SIMILAR...FROM SW KANSAS TO NORTH OF DETROIT.
THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND STANDS A
GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA OF GETTING SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE NORTHLAND WILL ESCAPE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE SE FORECAST AREA
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLORADO LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET TO WELL
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY. DESPITE THE COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RECOVER WELL THURSDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE SUNNIER SKIES
AND...INCREASINGLY MORE AND MORE POWERFUL SUN ANGLE...AND THE PINE
TREE ALBEDO EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING MILDER...PACIFIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKS. THE NORTHLAND STANDS TO BENEFIT
FROM THIS AIR...AND SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 510 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY 18Z.
ADDED A VCSH MENTION TO BRD AT 21Z AS MODELS ARE POINTING TO SOME
LIGHT SNOW SPREADING INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE PROGGED TO CROSS INTO WESTERN MN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -8  20   6  22 /   0   0  20  10
INL -12  22   3  17 /   0  20  20  10
BRD  -7  21   5  23 /   0  10  20   0
HYR -12  18   7  25 /   0   0  20  20
ASX  -5  22   9  25 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 272113
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
313 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND PRECIP
FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TONIGHTS
LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALES THAT NEAR WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 TO 25
BELOW ZERO.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHLAND. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. WE HAVE AN
AREA OF SMALL POPS FOR SOME SNOW OVER OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE CLOUD COVER AND SW FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BOLSTER
TEMPERATURES AND PUT AN END TO THE STRING OF SUBZERO NIGHTS. THE
TROUGH COULD PRODUCE A DUSTING OF SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBZERO OR CLOSE TO ZERO THANKS TO THE CLEAR SKIES.

THE SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THE NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A
COLORADO LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND REACH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM LOW
TRACKS ARE SURPRISING SIMILAR...FROM SW KANSAS TO NORTH OF DETROIT.
THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND STANDS A
GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA OF GETTING SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE NORTHLAND WILL ESCAPE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE SE FORECAST AREA
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLORADO LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET TO WELL
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY. DESPITE THE COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RECOVER WELL THURSDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE SUNNIER SKIES
AND...INCREASINGLY MORE AND MORE POWERFUL SUN ANGLE...AND THE PINE
TREE ALBEDO EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING MILDER...PACIFIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKS. THE NORTHLAND STANDS TO BENEFIT
FROM THIS AIR...AND SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT W TO
WSW WINDS WILL BECOME SSW TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -8  20   6  22 /   0   0  20  10
INL -12  22   3  17 /   0  20  20  10
BRD  -7  21   5  23 /   0  10  20   0
HYR -12  18   7  25 /   0   0  20  20
ASX  -5  22   9  25 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 272113
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
313 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND PRECIP
FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TONIGHTS
LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALES THAT NEAR WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 TO 25
BELOW ZERO.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHLAND. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. WE HAVE AN
AREA OF SMALL POPS FOR SOME SNOW OVER OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE CLOUD COVER AND SW FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BOLSTER
TEMPERATURES AND PUT AN END TO THE STRING OF SUBZERO NIGHTS. THE
TROUGH COULD PRODUCE A DUSTING OF SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBZERO OR CLOSE TO ZERO THANKS TO THE CLEAR SKIES.

THE SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THE NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A
COLORADO LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND REACH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM LOW
TRACKS ARE SURPRISING SIMILAR...FROM SW KANSAS TO NORTH OF DETROIT.
THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND STANDS A
GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA OF GETTING SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE NORTHLAND WILL ESCAPE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE SE FORECAST AREA
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLORADO LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET TO WELL
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY. DESPITE THE COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RECOVER WELL THURSDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE SUNNIER SKIES
AND...INCREASINGLY MORE AND MORE POWERFUL SUN ANGLE...AND THE PINE
TREE ALBEDO EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING MILDER...PACIFIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKS. THE NORTHLAND STANDS TO BENEFIT
FROM THIS AIR...AND SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT W TO
WSW WINDS WILL BECOME SSW TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -8  20   6  22 /   0   0  20  10
INL -12  22   3  17 /   0  20  20  10
BRD  -7  21   5  23 /   0  10  20   0
HYR -12  18   7  25 /   0   0  20  20
ASX  -5  22   9  25 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 272113
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
313 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND PRECIP
FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TONIGHTS
LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALES THAT NEAR WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 TO 25
BELOW ZERO.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHLAND. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. WE HAVE AN
AREA OF SMALL POPS FOR SOME SNOW OVER OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE CLOUD COVER AND SW FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BOLSTER
TEMPERATURES AND PUT AN END TO THE STRING OF SUBZERO NIGHTS. THE
TROUGH COULD PRODUCE A DUSTING OF SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBZERO OR CLOSE TO ZERO THANKS TO THE CLEAR SKIES.

THE SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THE NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A
COLORADO LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND REACH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM LOW
TRACKS ARE SURPRISING SIMILAR...FROM SW KANSAS TO NORTH OF DETROIT.
THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND STANDS A
GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA OF GETTING SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE NORTHLAND WILL ESCAPE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE SE FORECAST AREA
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLORADO LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET TO WELL
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY. DESPITE THE COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RECOVER WELL THURSDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE SUNNIER SKIES
AND...INCREASINGLY MORE AND MORE POWERFUL SUN ANGLE...AND THE PINE
TREE ALBEDO EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING MILDER...PACIFIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKS. THE NORTHLAND STANDS TO BENEFIT
FROM THIS AIR...AND SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT W TO
WSW WINDS WILL BECOME SSW TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -8  20   6  22 /   0   0  20  10
INL -12  22   3  17 /   0  20  20  10
BRD  -7  21   5  23 /   0  10  20   0
HYR -12  18   7  25 /   0   0  20  20
ASX  -5  22   9  25 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 272113
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
313 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AND DRY AIR WILL KEEP THE NORTHLAND PRECIP
FREE THROUGH MUCH OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL BE SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
SNOW OVER WESTERN AREAS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER FAR
NORTHERN AREAS...OTHERWISE LOOK FOR MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. TONIGHTS
LOWS WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...BUT NOT BE AS COLD AS LAST NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A FEW LOCALES THAT NEAR WIND CHILLS AROUND 20 TO 25
BELOW ZERO.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARD THE NORTHLAND. FORCING DOES NOT
LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG AND MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED. WE HAVE AN
AREA OF SMALL POPS FOR SOME SNOW OVER OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES...BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED. HIGHS SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER TWENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

A LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE CLOUD COVER AND SW FLOW SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BOLSTER
TEMPERATURES AND PUT AN END TO THE STRING OF SUBZERO NIGHTS. THE
TROUGH COULD PRODUCE A DUSTING OF SNOW AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. SUNDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUBZERO OR CLOSE TO ZERO THANKS TO THE CLEAR SKIES.

THE SUNNY SKIES WILL CONTINUE INTO MONDAY AS SW FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING HIGH PRESSURE AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.

THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THE NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A
LARGE STORM SYSTEM DURING THE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY TIME FRAME. A
COLORADO LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY AND REACH THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE TUESDAY EVENING. THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM LOW
TRACKS ARE SURPRISING SIMILAR...FROM SW KANSAS TO NORTH OF DETROIT.
THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND STANDS A
GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST GETTING SOME LIGHT SNOW. THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE FOR THE FORECAST AREA OF GETTING SNOWFALL.
AT THIS TIME...THE MODELS SUGGEST THE NORTHLAND WILL ESCAPE ANY
SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM...BUT THE SE FORECAST AREA
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES.

A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE NORTHLAND TUESDAY
AND TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING COLORADO LOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK DOWN TO ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST NIGHT WILL LIKELY BE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN A SURFACE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PLUMMET TO WELL
BELOW ZERO EARLY THURSDAY. DESPITE THE COLD MORNING...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RECOVER WELL THURSDAY AFTERNOON THANKS TO THE SUNNIER SKIES
AND...INCREASINGLY MORE AND MORE POWERFUL SUN ANGLE...AND THE PINE
TREE ALBEDO EFFECT.

THE MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING MILDER...PACIFIC AIR WILL MOVE INTO
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE IN THE WEEKS. THE NORTHLAND STANDS TO BENEFIT
FROM THIS AIR...AND SHOULD RETURN TO CLOSER TO NORMAL BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT W TO
WSW WINDS WILL BECOME SSW TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -8  20   6  22 /   0   0  20  10
INL -12  22   3  17 /   0  20  20  10
BRD  -7  21   5  23 /   0  10  20   0
HYR -12  18   7  25 /   0   0  20  20
ASX  -5  22   9  25 /   0   0  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 271724 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS. WE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS/TEMPS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ALSO UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AT 345 AM...IT WAS ANOTHER MORNING OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 26 BELOW ZERO AT
CRANE LAKE TO 4 BELOW ZERO AT ASHLAND. THERE WERE SOME VERY COLD
TEMPS IN NW WI AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR. WIND CHILL READINGS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO...ALTHOUGH
THERE WERE A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE DEFINITELY
BEEN SEEING WARMER THAN MOS TEMPS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. THIS IS
FAIRLY COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE PINE TREE EFFECT. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BIT WARMER THAN MOS TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. SUNNY SKIES ARE IN
STORE FOR THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH AT TIMES.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WE COULD AGAIN SEE A
PERIOD OF BRIEF WIND CHILL VALUES APPROACHING 25 BELOW ZERO.

APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS
FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 20S. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLORADO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WHILE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW TRACK EXISTS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GENERALLY
TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM. LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

CONFIDENCE FOR THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE MID/LOW LEVEL
PATTERN. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TWO MAJOR FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR DECENT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE REGION...BUT THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE IS STILL LARGE ENOUGH
THAT LITTLE TO SNOWFALL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
AT THE SURFACE WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR A COLORADO LOW TO DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ON MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST WITH THE
SUPPORT OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. TO THE NORTH AN UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL NOT LINE UP WELL...AND WHILE THE BEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL BE LATE
TUESDAY AS THE STRONGER NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DEVELOPS...THE
BEST LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE GONE. THE STORM THAT EVOLVES OUT
OF THE COLORADO LOW WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF THE
MIDWEST AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...OUR CWA WILL BE JUST ON
THE NORTHWEST FRINGE.

SAT NIGHT/SUN/MON...A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SAT NIGHT AND LATE
SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK FORCING IN PLACE.
WINDS BREEZY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
25KTS ON MONDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION DUE
TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA. PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MONDAY. TEMPS APPROACHING
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

LATE MON/TUES/WED...INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE FOR
SNOWFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE AS FAR AS TIMING GOES.
GEM IS FASTER THAN ECMWF WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE CWA. TOO FAR OUT TO GET SERIOUS ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...AND AS
STATED ABOVE THERE STILL EXISTS A POSSIBILITY THAT WE SEE LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WARMEST ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER
20S...THEN DIVING INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT/TEENS FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...COLDER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE TEENS WITH
LOWS 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION COULD LEAD
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT W TO
WSW WINDS WILL BECOME SSW TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  15  -7  21   8 /   0   0   0  20
INL  14 -13  20   1 /   0   0  20  20
BRD  15  -6  21   7 /   0   0  10  20
HYR  15 -11  19   7 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  17  -3  23  11 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM









000
FXUS63 KDLH 271724 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THE SHORT TERM GRIDS. WE MADE SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO WINDS/TEMPS...OTHERWISE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

ALSO UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

AT 345 AM...IT WAS ANOTHER MORNING OF VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM 26 BELOW ZERO AT
CRANE LAKE TO 4 BELOW ZERO AT ASHLAND. THERE WERE SOME VERY COLD
TEMPS IN NW WI AS WELL...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE TEENS
BELOW ZERO. SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR. WIND CHILL READINGS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO...ALTHOUGH
THERE WERE A FEW LOCATIONS NEAR 25 BELOW ZERO.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS HIGH TEMPERATURES. WE HAVE DEFINITELY
BEEN SEEING WARMER THAN MOS TEMPS FOR DAYTIME HIGHS. THIS IS
FAIRLY COMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR DUE TO THE PINE TREE EFFECT. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BIT WARMER THAN MOS TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA
TODAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS. SUNNY SKIES ARE IN
STORE FOR THE CWA...ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
THROUGH AT TIMES.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
BELOW ZERO TONIGHT UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. WE COULD AGAIN SEE A
PERIOD OF BRIEF WIND CHILL VALUES APPROACHING 25 BELOW ZERO.

APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING A GRADUAL INCREASE IN CLOUDS
FROM WEST TO EAST ON SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE
IS EXPECTED FOR A FAIR AMOUNT OF THE DAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE
IN THE 20S. THERE COULD EVEN BE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE GRADUAL WARMING TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. A COLORADO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO
A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AND WHILE SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW TRACK EXISTS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN GENERALLY
TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE SYSTEM. LATER IN THE WORK WEEK
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.

CONFIDENCE FOR THE EARLY WEEK SYSTEM HAS BEEN BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
PAST FEW DAYS DUE TO THE COMPLEX NATURE OF THE MID/LOW LEVEL
PATTERN. ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TWO MAJOR FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO
BRING A CHANCE FOR DECENT SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS TO AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE REGION...BUT THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE IS STILL LARGE ENOUGH
THAT LITTLE TO SNOWFALL FOR THIS TIME PERIOD REMAINS A POSSIBILITY.
AT THE SURFACE WE WILL BE WATCHING FOR A COLORADO LOW TO DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS ON MONDAY.
THIS FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDWEST WITH THE
SUPPORT OF A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE. TO THE NORTH AN UPPER LOW
WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL NOT LINE UP WELL...AND WHILE THE BEST LARGE SCALE
FORCING FOR NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WILL BE LATE
TUESDAY AS THE STRONGER NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT DEVELOPS...THE
BEST LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE GONE. THE STORM THAT EVOLVES OUT
OF THE COLORADO LOW WILL CERTAINLY IMPACT A LARGE PORTION OF THE
MIDWEST AND THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...OUR CWA WILL BE JUST ON
THE NORTHWEST FRINGE.

SAT NIGHT/SUN/MON...A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SAT NIGHT AND LATE
SUNDAY DUE TO INCREASED MOISTURE AND SOME WEAK FORCING IN PLACE.
WINDS BREEZY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH GUSTS APPROACHING
25KTS ON MONDAY AS PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES ACROSS THE REGION DUE
TO AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND LOW OVER
NORTHERN MANITOBA. PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY ON SAT
NIGHT/SUNDAY...BECOMING MOSTLY SUNNY BY MONDAY. TEMPS APPROACHING
NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

LATE MON/TUES/WED...INCREASING CLOUDS AS WELL AS A CHANCE FOR
SNOWFALL. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
EVENING...BUT GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE PLACE AS FAR AS TIMING GOES.
GEM IS FASTER THAN ECMWF WHILE THE GFS KEEPS THINGS MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE CWA. TOO FAR OUT TO GET SERIOUS ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...AND AS
STATED ABOVE THERE STILL EXISTS A POSSIBILITY THAT WE SEE LITTLE TO
NO ACCUMULATION. TEMPERATURES WARMEST ON TUESDAY IN THE UPPER
20S...THEN DIVING INTO THE SINGLE DIGIT/TEENS FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY...COLDER WITH DECREASING CLOUDS. HIGHS IN THE TEENS WITH
LOWS 5 TO 15 BELOW ZERO ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION COULD LEAD
TO BREEZY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1124 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

THE CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS OVER NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE LIGHT W TO
WSW WINDS WILL BECOME SSW TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  15  -7  21   8 /   0   0   0  20
INL  14 -13  20   1 /   0   0  20  20
BRD  15  -6  21   7 /   0   0  10  20
HYR  15 -11  19   7 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  17  -3  23  11 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM










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