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000
FXUS63 KDLH 010136
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
836 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 836 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

TOOK OUT PRECPITATION ALONG SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA BORDER AS IT
HAS DISSIPAETD DUE TO THE DECREASE OF SOLAR HEATING. MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS IN TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. REST OF FCST
UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

AT 315PM/2015Z...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION. THE NORTHLAND HAD LIGHT WNW TO NW
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOW 80S. THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA HAD CLEAR SKIES IN THE MUCH DRIER FLOW...WHILE THE
SW AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA HAD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORE
HUMID FLOW. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE WIND SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK...BUT GIVEN THE 1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...THERE
COULD BE BRIEF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL.

TONIGHT...COOL AND RELATIVELY CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE VERY
LIGHT WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. THERE COULD BE BRIEF ISOLATED FOG OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT. THE MODEL CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE
NOT VERY SUGGESTIVE OF THE FOG...SO I LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. WE MIGHT NEED TO ADD IT LATER. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS
THAT NW WISCONSIN HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY FOG...SUCH AS
AT KHYR...OUR USUAL SUSPECT.

FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW INLAND...BUT AREAS
CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE ONSHORE WIND DUE TO A LAKE
BREEZE. THE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK BOUNDARY MIGHT SET UP NEAR OR
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NW WISCONSIN. THIS COULD BE THE AREA
FOR SOME SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE MIXED LAYER CAPE BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT WITH VERY
WEAK WIND SHEAR...SO IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...THERE
COULD BE BRIEF STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL. THE NAM12 AND SREF
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DUE TO THE WEAK CONVERGENCE FROM THE LAKE BREEZE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF QUIET THEN BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS THE
FRONT MOVES IN AND THAT AREA IS IMPACTED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION WITH THE 12Z
RUNS. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND THE GFS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OR SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. WE
HAVE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY MOVING
SLOWLY THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT/LOW. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS INTO THE NORTHLAND IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY PERIOD. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN FROM EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
FORECAST TO FALL JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS TIME
AND IT COULD SHIFT NORTH AND IMPACT MORE OF OUR REGION.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO LOWER
EIGHTIES...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY TO THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME
EARLY MORNING FOG THAT CAUSE IFR CONDITIONS FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  78  56  80 /  10  20  10  10
INL  49  80  52  81 /  10  10  10  30
BRD  55  82  58  83 /  20  20  10  10
HYR  53  80  54  81 /  20  30  20  10
ASX  52  75  52  78 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...STEWART







000
FXUS63 KDLH 312026
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
326 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

AT 315PM/2015Z...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION. THE NORTHLAND HAD LIGHT WNW TO NW
FLOW. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO LOW 80S. THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA HAD CLEAR SKIES IN THE MUCH DRIER FLOW...WHILE THE
SW AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA HAD PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE MORE
HUMID FLOW. THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL FORECAST AREA.

THIS AFTERNOON...THERE COULD CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE WIND SHEAR
IS VERY WEAK...BUT GIVEN THE 1000 J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...THERE
COULD BE BRIEF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL
HAIL.

TONIGHT...COOL AND RELATIVELY CLEAR WEATHER IS EXPECTED. THE VERY
LIGHT WIND SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. THERE COULD BE BRIEF ISOLATED FOG OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND TONIGHT. THE MODEL CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE
NOT VERY SUGGESTIVE OF THE FOG...SO I LEFT IT OUT OF THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. WE MIGHT NEED TO ADD IT LATER. THE NAM12 SUGGESTS
THAT NW WISCONSIN HAS THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING ANY FOG...SUCH AS
AT KHYR...OUR USUAL SUSPECT.

FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW INLAND...BUT AREAS
CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LIKELY SEE ONSHORE WIND DUE TO A LAKE
BREEZE. THE MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK BOUNDARY MIGHT SET UP NEAR OR
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA IN NW WISCONSIN. THIS COULD BE THE AREA
FOR SOME SHOWER AND STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MODELS SUGGEST THERE
COULD BE MIXED LAYER CAPE BETWEEN 500 TO 1000 J/KG BUT WITH VERY
WEAK WIND SHEAR...SO IF ANY STORMS DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...THERE
COULD BE BRIEF STRONG STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL. THE NAM12 AND SREF
ARE ALSO SUGGESTING THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
DUE TO THE WEAK CONVERGENCE FROM THE LAKE BREEZE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

THE PERIOD WILL START OFF QUIET THEN BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE REGION BECOMES A FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE AND PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN.

FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY SHOULD BE DRY ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AS A
COLD FRONT DROPS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
THEN SAGS SOUTH THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS THE
FRONT MOVES IN AND THAT AREA IS IMPACTED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON A SOLUTION WITH THE 12Z
RUNS. THE ECMWF IS A BIT FURTHER NORTH WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND THE GFS A LITTLE FURTHER SOUTH COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AT THIS
TIME. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS THE FRONT STALLS OR SLOWLY MOVES SOUTH. WE
HAVE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH THE BETTER CHANCES OCCURRING ACROSS THE SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY MOVING
SLOWLY THROUGH INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER WAVE IN WNW FLOW
ALOFT WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT/LOW. THESE FEATURES WILL BRING
A BETTER CHANCE FOR STORMS INTO THE NORTHLAND IN THE
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY PERIOD. A COUPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH HEAVY RAIN FROM EARLY TO THE
MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME...THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS
FORECAST TO FALL JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...THE
LOCATION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FAR FROM CERTAIN AT THIS TIME
AND IT COULD SHIFT NORTH AND IMPACT MORE OF OUR REGION.

HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO LOWER
EIGHTIES...THEN COOL SLIGHTLY TO THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A CU FIELD WAS ONCE AGAIN FORMING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 5-7KFT ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WE CONFINED THE MENTION TO KHYR WHICH
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE.

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND MAY
LEAD TO SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  78  56  80 /  10  20  10  10
INL  49  80  52  81 /  10  10  10  30
BRD  56  82  58  83 /  20  20  10  10
HYR  53  80  54  81 /  20  30  20  10
ASX  52  75  52  78 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 311744
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. IN GENERAL THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH EMBEDDED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO PULSE STRONGER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHRT WVS ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE
RAIN THAT FELL LAST NIGHT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE OVER
SECTIONS OF N-CNTRL WI...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AGAIN AND MAKE WAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN. A WEAK S/W WILL COMBINE
WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM AROUND GRAND RAPIDS TO HAYWARD. ML
CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND QUICKLY PULSE UP
AND DOWN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S. COULD POSSIBLY SEE PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT.

A MORE DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND HOOKS UP WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME SPOTTY EVENING
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A CU FIELD WAS ONCE AGAIN FORMING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 5-7KFT ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WE CONFINED THE MENTION TO KHYR WHICH
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE.

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND MAY
LEAD TO SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  58  79  56 /  10  10  30  10
INL  79  53  80  52 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  81  58  82  58 /  30  20  20  10
HYR  79  56  79  54 /  20  20  30  20
ASX  77  56  76  52 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 311744
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. IN GENERAL THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH EMBEDDED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO PULSE STRONGER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHRT WVS ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE
RAIN THAT FELL LAST NIGHT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE OVER
SECTIONS OF N-CNTRL WI...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AGAIN AND MAKE WAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN. A WEAK S/W WILL COMBINE
WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM AROUND GRAND RAPIDS TO HAYWARD. ML
CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND QUICKLY PULSE UP
AND DOWN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S. COULD POSSIBLY SEE PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT.

A MORE DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND HOOKS UP WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME SPOTTY EVENING
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH
THE PERIOD. A CU FIELD WAS ONCE AGAIN FORMING EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS FROM 5-7KFT ARE EXPECTED
FOR MOST AREAS.

THERE MAY BE A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WE CONFINED THE MENTION TO KHYR WHICH
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE.

SOME PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AS WELL...AND MAY
LEAD TO SOME MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  58  79  56 /  10  10  30  10
INL  79  53  80  52 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  81  58  82  58 /  30  20  20  10
HYR  79  56  79  54 /  20  20  30  20
ASX  77  56  76  52 /  10   0  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311130
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. IN GENERAL THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH EMBEDDED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO PULSE STRONGER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHRT WVS ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE
RAIN THAT FELL LAST NIGHT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE OVER
SECTIONS OF N-CNTRL WI...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AGAIN AND MAKE WAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN. A WEAK S/W WILL COMBINE
WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM AROUND GRAND RAPIDS TO HAYWARD. ML
CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND QUICKLY PULSE UP
AND DOWN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S. COULD POSSIBLY SEE PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT.

A MORE DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND HOOKS UP WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME SPOTTY EVENING
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND...ALTHOUGH SOME VERY
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  58  79  54 /  20  10  30  10
INL  79  53  80  51 /  20  10  10  10
BRD  81  58  82  57 /  20  10  20  10
HYR  79  56  79  53 /  30  20  30  20
ASX  77  56  76  51 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 311130
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. IN GENERAL THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH EMBEDDED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO PULSE STRONGER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHRT WVS ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE
RAIN THAT FELL LAST NIGHT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE OVER
SECTIONS OF N-CNTRL WI...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AGAIN AND MAKE WAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN. A WEAK S/W WILL COMBINE
WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM AROUND GRAND RAPIDS TO HAYWARD. ML
CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND QUICKLY PULSE UP
AND DOWN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S. COULD POSSIBLY SEE PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT.

A MORE DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND HOOKS UP WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME SPOTTY EVENING
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND...ALTHOUGH SOME VERY
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND A POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  58  79  54 /  20  10  30  10
INL  79  53  80  51 /  20  10  10  10
BRD  81  58  82  57 /  20  10  20  10
HYR  79  56  79  53 /  30  20  30  20
ASX  77  56  76  51 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310845
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. IN GENERAL THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH EMBEDDED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO PULSE STRONGER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHRT WVS ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE
RAIN THAT FELL LAST NIGHT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE OVER
SECTIONS OF N-CNTRL WI...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AGAIN AND MAKE WAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN. A WEAK S/W WILL COMBINE
WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM AROUND GRAND RAPIDS TO HAYWARD. ML
CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND QUICKLY PULSE UP
AND DOWN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S. COULD POSSIBLY SEE PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT.

A MORE DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND HOOKS UP WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME SPOTTY EVENING
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. OVERNIGHT FOG TO AFFECT SEVERAL TERMINALS WITH IFR TO
LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CIGS...BUT THEN SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTER 18Z...BUT SHOULD STAY
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  58  79  54 /  20  10  30  10
INL  79  53  80  51 /  20  10  10  10
BRD  81  58  82  57 /  20  10  20  10
HYR  79  56  79  53 /  30  20  30  20
ASX  77  56  76  51 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 310845
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND PATCHY FOG
THIS MORNING...ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY OVER THE SRN AND SWRN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AND ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. IN GENERAL THE STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN WEAK WITH EMBEDDED SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO PULSE STRONGER IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER ERN ONTARIO WITH NUMEROUS
EMBEDDED SHRT WVS ROTATING SWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT LAKES AREA.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC THIS MORNING...COMBINED WITH THE
RAIN THAT FELL LAST NIGHT IS HELPING TO PRODUCE PATCHY FOG ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING. THE FOG IS LOCALLY DENSE OVER
SECTIONS OF N-CNTRL WI...BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY. THE FOG WILL MIX OUT BY MID MORNING AGAIN AND MAKE WAY
FOR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN. A WEAK S/W WILL COMBINE
WITH STEEPENING LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO PRODUCE MORE CONVECTIVE
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATER TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL BE FROM AROUND GRAND RAPIDS TO HAYWARD. ML
CAPE VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 1000-1200 J/KG ALONG THIS
CORRIDOR...BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ALMOST NON-EXISTENT. SO
ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE SHORT- LIVED AND QUICKLY PULSE UP
AND DOWN. CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW OF THE STORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WINDS.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE TONIGHT WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AND
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 50S. COULD POSSIBLY SEE PATCHY FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT.

A MORE DYNAMIC UPPER WAVE MOVES IN FROM THE NW FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND HOOKS UP WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS
ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE SRN AND SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
ML CAPE VALUES ABOVE 1000 J/KG AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT
PRODUCING A SLIGHTLY GREATER POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS. HIGH
TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE INTO THE MID 70S TO LOWER
80S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FRIDAY
NIGHT...BRINGING A MOSTLY DRY NIGHT ASIDE FROM SOME SPOTTY EVENING
SHOWERS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE REGION ON SATURDAY...AS
A SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO STALL JUST
SOUTH OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THERE ARE SOME FAIRLY
MAJOR DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF...BUT THE CONSENSUS IS
THAT THE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA THROUGH MIDWEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FAIRLY UNIFORM FOR THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. OVERNIGHT FOG TO AFFECT SEVERAL TERMINALS WITH IFR TO
LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CIGS...BUT THEN SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTER 18Z...BUT SHOULD STAY
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  58  79  54 /  20  10  30  10
INL  79  53  80  51 /  20  10  10  10
BRD  81  58  82  57 /  20  10  20  10
HYR  79  56  79  53 /  30  20  30  20
ASX  77  56  76  51 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310520
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1220 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED TO FRESHEN UP PRECIPITATION AND SKY TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED
AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY A LOW-END SEVERE
STORM WILL BE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE
0-6 KM SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGARDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHERE IT
HANGS UP.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER/NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THEN IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN. WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. THE PRECIP WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THEY BRING THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE REGIONS WEATHER AS INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING HEAVY RAIN AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
SOME POPS FOR THE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MOST TIMES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. THE PERIOD BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT MUCH OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...AND THE GFS SOLUTION PUTS OUR CWA IN THE CROSSHAIRS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES
FOR MOST AREAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

VFR SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE AREA SHOULD DISSIPATE IN THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. OVERNIGHT FOG TO AFFECT SEVERAL TERMINALS WITH IFR TO
LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CIGS...BUT THEN SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 15Z. CONVECTION
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTER 18Z...BUT SHOULD STAY
AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AGAIN THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  79  56  77 /  20  20  10  20
INL  53  79  52  79 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  56  82  57  81 /  10  20  10  30
HYR  53  81  54  79 /  20  30  20  50
ASX  53  74  53  74 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 302326
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
626 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED TO FRESHEN UP PRECIPITATION AND SKY TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED
AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY A LOW-END SEVERE
STORM WILL BE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE
0-6 KM SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGARDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHERE IT
HANGS UP.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER/NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THEN IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN. WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. THE PRECIP WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THEY BRING THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE REGIONS WEATHER AS INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING HEAVY RAIN AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
SOME POPS FOR THE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MOST TIMES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. THE PERIOD BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT MUCH OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...AND THE GFS SOLUTION PUTS OUR CWA IN THE CROSSHAIRS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES
FOR MOST AREAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSE TO BUT NOT AT KHYR UNTIL 01Z
THIS EVENING...THEN ALL CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR. OVERNIGHT FOG
EXPECTED TO RETURN AT KHYR AND KHIB...WITH FOG POSSIBLE AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE FOG POTENTIAL
WITH 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY 15Z.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTER 18Z...BUT
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  79  56  77 /  10  20  10  20
INL  49  79  52  79 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  54  82  57  81 /  10  20  10  30
HYR  50  81  54  79 /  20  30  20  50
ASX  48  74  53  74 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 302326
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
626 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

UPDATED TO FRESHEN UP PRECIPITATION AND SKY TRENDS. ALSO UPDATED
AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY A LOW-END SEVERE
STORM WILL BE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE
0-6 KM SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGARDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHERE IT
HANGS UP.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER/NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THEN IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN. WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. THE PRECIP WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THEY BRING THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE REGIONS WEATHER AS INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING HEAVY RAIN AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
SOME POPS FOR THE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MOST TIMES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. THE PERIOD BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT MUCH OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...AND THE GFS SOLUTION PUTS OUR CWA IN THE CROSSHAIRS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES
FOR MOST AREAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CLOSE TO BUT NOT AT KHYR UNTIL 01Z
THIS EVENING...THEN ALL CONDITIONS RETURN TO VFR. OVERNIGHT FOG
EXPECTED TO RETURN AT KHYR AND KHIB...WITH FOG POSSIBLE AT THE
OTHER TERMINALS AS WELL. WILL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE FOG POTENTIAL
WITH 06Z TAF ISSUANCE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN BY 15Z.
CONVECTION EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN THURSDAY AFTER 18Z...BUT
SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  79  56  77 /  10  20  10  20
INL  49  79  52  79 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  54  82  57  81 /  10  20  10  30
HYR  50  81  54  79 /  20  30  20  50
ASX  48  74  53  74 /  30  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE










000
FXUS63 KDLH 301944
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
244 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY A LOW-END SEVERE
STORM WILL BE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE
0-6 KM SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGARDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHERE IT
HANGS UP.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER/NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THEN IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN. WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. THE PRECIP WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THEY BRING THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE REGIONS WEATHER AS INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING HEAVY RAIN AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
SOME POPS FOR THE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MOST TIMES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. THE PERIOD BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT MUCH OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...AND THE GFS SOLUTION PUTS OUR CWA IN THE CROSSHAIRS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES
FOR MOST AREAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS.

THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END LATER THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  79  56  77 /  30  20  10  20
INL  49  79  52  79 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  54  82  57  81 /  10  20  10  30
HYR  50  81  54  79 /  40  30  20  50
ASX  48  74  53  74 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 301944
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
244 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE ALLOWED FOR
ANOTHER AFTERNOON OF SCATTERED SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
THE CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...THEN
DIMINISH THROUGH SUNSET WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING. WITH CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG...AND RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING
LEVELS...SOME HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT FOR STRONG TO POSSIBLY A LOW-END SEVERE
STORM WILL BE OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NRN WISCONSIN ZONES WHERE
0-6 KM SHEAR IS MOST FAVORABLE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE SIGNIFICANT UNCERTAINTY BEGINNING
SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY REGARDING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND WHERE IT
HANGS UP.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER/NEAR JAMES BAY THURSDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL
BE OVER THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY...THEN IS FORECAST TO
WEAKEN. WE EXPECT SOME SHOWERS/STORMS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH SOUTHERN AREAS
SEEING THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY. THE PRECIP WILL END FRIDAY NIGHT AND
MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN DRY INTO SATURDAY. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL THEN MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA SATURDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

THE MODELS DIVERGE IN HOW FAR SOUTH THEY BRING THIS BOUNDARY...WITH
THE ECMWF CONSISTENTLY FURTHER SOUTH THAN THE GFS. THIS WILL HAVE A
BIG IMPACT ON THE REGIONS WEATHER AS INSTABILITY AND LIFT WILL BE
SIGNIFICANT ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING HEAVY RAIN AS
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. AT THIS TIME WE HAVE
SOME POPS FOR THE SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY PERIOD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA...WITH HIGHEST CHANCES MOST TIMES OVER SOUTHERN AREAS CLOSER TO
THE BOUNDARY. THE PERIOD BEARS CLOSE MONITORING AS HEAVY RAIN/SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT MUCH OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF OUR
CWA...AND THE GFS SOLUTION PUTS OUR CWA IN THE CROSSHAIRS.

EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO LOWER EIGHTIES
FOR MOST AREAS. THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR SATURDAY
BEFORE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES IN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS.

THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END LATER THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  79  56  77 /  30  20  10  20
INL  49  79  52  79 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  54  82  57  81 /  10  20  10  30
HYR  50  81  54  79 /  40  30  20  50
ASX  48  74  53  74 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 301738
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1238 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO EXTEND THE AREA OF FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. ALSO ADDED A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES TO THE IRON RAGE AS
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH
RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SMALL HIGH BASED SPRINKLES/VIRGA IN THE
COOK/CRANE LAKE AREA...TRACKING SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINED FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE COOL AND ACTIVE NRLY PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE VERY
SLOWLY EWD. SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGERED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEFTOVER A VERY MOIST NEAR-SFC LAYER THAT
IS COMBINING WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH THE MID MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX THE BL ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT.

MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE ACTIVE...COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING BNDY LYR WILL COMBINE WITH AN
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE MID- LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE ARROWHEAD SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS
AND INTO NW WI. ML CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY
STRONG T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL.

CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY FORCED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...SO
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE....THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
SLIPS SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRING S/WVS SOUTH INTO NRN
MN/WI...AND SETTING OFF AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND VERY SLOWLY
PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SERIES OF
S/WVS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE.  ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAIN AND SETTING UP A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI...THIS COULD MEAN A CLOUDY AND WET
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AT
ANY RATE...THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS.

THE SHOWERS/STORMS WILL END LATER THIS EVENING AND SKIES WILL
BECOME CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY. SOME FOG WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS GO LIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  51  79  54 /  30  20  20  10
INL  80  49  79  51 /  20  10  20  10
BRD  80  54  82  56 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  77  50  81  53 /  30  30  30  20
ASX  77  48  74  52 /  40  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 301414
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
914 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO EXTEND THE AREA OF FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. ALSO ADDED A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES TO THE IRON RAGE AS
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH
RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SMALL HIGH BASED SPRINKLES/VIRGA IN THE
COOK/CRANE LAKE AREA...TRACKING SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINED FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE COOL AND ACTIVE NRLY PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE VERY
SLOWLY EWD. SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGERED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEFTOVER A VERY MOIST NEAR-SFC LAYER THAT
IS COMBINING WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH THE MID MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX THE BL ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT.

MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE ACTIVE...COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING BNDY LYR WILL COMBINE WITH AN
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE MID- LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE ARROWHEAD SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS
AND INTO NW WI. ML CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY
STRONG T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL.

CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY FORCED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...SO
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE....THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
SLIPS SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRING S/WVS SOUTH INTO NRN
MN/WI...AND SETTING OFF AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND VERY SLOWLY
PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SERIES OF
S/WVS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE.  ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAIN AND SETTING UP A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI...THIS COULD MEAN A CLOUDY AND WET
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AT
ANY RATE...THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DENSE FOG OVR THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFT 12Z...WITH FVR
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
POP UP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MN AND NWRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TIL ABOUT 02Z...THEN A BIT MORE FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT.
KINL AND KBRD ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  51  79  54 /  20  20  20  10
INL  80  49  79  51 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  80  54  82  56 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  77  50  81  53 /  30  30  30  20
ASX  77  48  74  52 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 301414
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
914 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MORNING UPDATE TO EXTEND THE AREA OF FOG/STRATUS OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN AND THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS. ALSO ADDED A FEW MORNING SPRINKLES TO THE IRON RAGE AS
LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IS SHOWING CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT WITH
RADAR DEPICTING A FEW SMALL HIGH BASED SPRINKLES/VIRGA IN THE
COOK/CRANE LAKE AREA...TRACKING SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINED FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE COOL AND ACTIVE NRLY PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE VERY
SLOWLY EWD. SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGERED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEFTOVER A VERY MOIST NEAR-SFC LAYER THAT
IS COMBINING WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH THE MID MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX THE BL ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT.

MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE ACTIVE...COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING BNDY LYR WILL COMBINE WITH AN
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE MID- LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE ARROWHEAD SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS
AND INTO NW WI. ML CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY
STRONG T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL.

CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY FORCED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...SO
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE....THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
SLIPS SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRING S/WVS SOUTH INTO NRN
MN/WI...AND SETTING OFF AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND VERY SLOWLY
PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SERIES OF
S/WVS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE.  ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAIN AND SETTING UP A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI...THIS COULD MEAN A CLOUDY AND WET
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AT
ANY RATE...THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DENSE FOG OVR THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFT 12Z...WITH FVR
CONDITIONS THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
POP UP ACROSS NORTHEASTERN MN AND NWRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TIL ABOUT 02Z...THEN A BIT MORE FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT.
KINL AND KBRD ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  51  79  54 /  20  20  20  10
INL  80  49  79  51 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  80  54  82  56 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  77  50  81  53 /  30  30  30  20
ASX  77  48  74  52 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301141 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
641 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINED FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE COOL AND ACTIVE NRLY PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE VERY
SLOWLY EWD. SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGERED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEFTOVER A VERY MOIST NEAR-SFC LAYER THAT
IS COMBINING WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH THE MID MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX THE BL ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT.

MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE ACTIVE...COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING BNDY LYR WILL COMBINE WITH AN
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE MID- LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE ARROWHEAD SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS
AND INTO NW WI. ML CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY
STRONG T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL.

CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY FORCED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...SO
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE....THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
SLIPS SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRING S/WVS SOUTH INTO NRN
MN/WI...AND SETTING OFF AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND VERY SLOWLY
PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SERIES OF
S/WVS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE.  ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAIN AND SETTING UP A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI...THIS COULD MEAN A CLOUDY AND WET
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AT
ANY RATE...THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DENSE FOG OVR THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFT 12Z...WITH FVR
CONDITONS THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
POPUP ACORSS NORTHEASTERN MN AND NWRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TIL ABOUT 02Z...THEN A BIT MORE FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT.
KINL AND KBRD ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  55  79  54 /  30  20  20  10
INL  80  52  79  51 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  80  56  82  56 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  77  51  81  53 /  30  30  30  20
ASX  77  52  74  52 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 301141 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
641 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINED FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE COOL AND ACTIVE NRLY PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE VERY
SLOWLY EWD. SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGERED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEFTOVER A VERY MOIST NEAR-SFC LAYER THAT
IS COMBINING WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH THE MID MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX THE BL ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT.

MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE ACTIVE...COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING BNDY LYR WILL COMBINE WITH AN
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE MID- LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE ARROWHEAD SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS
AND INTO NW WI. ML CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY
STRONG T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL.

CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY FORCED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...SO
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE....THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
SLIPS SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRING S/WVS SOUTH INTO NRN
MN/WI...AND SETTING OFF AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND VERY SLOWLY
PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SERIES OF
S/WVS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE.  ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAIN AND SETTING UP A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI...THIS COULD MEAN A CLOUDY AND WET
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AT
ANY RATE...THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

DENSE FOG OVR THE AREA WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE AFT 12Z...WITH FVR
CONDITONS THE REST OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL AGAIN
POPUP ACORSS NORTHEASTERN MN AND NWRN WI THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE TIL ABOUT 02Z...THEN A BIT MORE FOG MAY FORM OVERNIGHT.
KINL AND KBRD ARE NOT EXPECTED TO RECIEVE ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  55  79  54 /  30  20  20  10
INL  80  52  79  51 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  80  56  82  56 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  77  51  81  53 /  30  30  30  20
ASX  77  52  74  52 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300837
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINED FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE COOL AND ACTIVE NRLY PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE VERY
SLOWLY EWD. SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGERED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEFTOVER A VERY MOIST NEAR-SFC LAYER THAT
IS COMBINING WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH THE MID MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX THE BL ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT.

MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE ACTIVE...COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING BNDY LYR WILL COMBINE WITH AN
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE MID- LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE ARROWHEAD SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS
AND INTO NW WI. ML CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY
STRONG T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL.

CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY FORCED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...SO
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE....THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
SLIPS SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRING S/WVS SOUTH INTO NRN
MN/WI...AND SETTING OFF AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND VERY SLOWLY
PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SERIES OF
S/WVS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE.  ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAIN AND SETTING UP A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI...THIS COULD MEAN A CLOUDY AND WET
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AT
ANY RATE...THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR ALL EXCEPT KBRD.
HAVE GONE WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES. WE MAY GET LIFR
CIGS...BUT AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN HAVE LEFT OFF FOR NOW. EXPECT
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BY 14Z. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 19Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH AND KHYR. MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. FOR NOW HAVE PUT IN VCTS
GROUPS...AND WE CAN REFINE WITH LATER ISSUANCES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  55  79  54 /  30  20  20  10
INL  80  52  79  51 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  80  56  82  56 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  77  51  81  53 /  30  30  30  20
ASX  77  52  74  52 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300837
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAINED FOCUSED AROUND THE AREAS
OF FOG THIS MORNING...LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

THE COOL AND ACTIVE NRLY PATTERN WILL PERSIST TODAY AND TONIGHT
AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER ERN CANADA CONTINUES TO ROTATE VERY
SLOWLY EWD. SHOWERS AND STORMS TRIGGERED YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING HAVE SINCE DIMINISHED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THE RAIN HAS LEFTOVER A VERY MOIST NEAR-SFC LAYER THAT
IS COMBINING WITH CLEARING SKIES...COOLING TEMPERATURES AND LIGHT
WINDS TO PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
TO 1/2 TO 1/4 MILE AT TIMES. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED
FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF AT THIS TIME AND MONITOR THE
TRENDS IN THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR FOG THROUGH THE MID MORNING...BEFORE THE HIGH
SUN ANGLE AND DRY AIR ALOFT BEGIN TO MIX THE BL ENOUGH TO SCOUR
THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS OUT.

MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE CAUGHT BETWEEN THE ACTIVE...COOL
CYCLONIC FLOW TO THE EAST AND A BUILDING DRY RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. PLENTY OF SUN THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND
EARLY AFTERNOON WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE. THE RISE IN
TEMPERATURES AND DESTABILIZING BNDY LYR WILL COMBINE WITH AN
EMBEDDED S/W DROPPING IN FROM THE NORTH TO PRODUCE MID- LATE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION FROM THE ARROWHEAD SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS
AND INTO NW WI. ML CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 500 J/KG AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF POSSIBLY
STRONG T-STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT
AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM AS WELL.

CONVECTION WILL BE LARGELY FORCED BY THE DIURNAL HEATING TODAY...SO
EXPECT MUCH OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S
AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 30 2014

LOOKING AT THE BIG PICTURE....THE UPPER LOW OVER JAMES BAY CANADA
SLIPS SOUTH AND THEN EAST INTO THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

THIS UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF BRING S/WVS SOUTH INTO NRN
MN/WI...AND SETTING OFF AFTERNOON STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO FILL AND VERY SLOWLY
PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF RIDGING SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS A SERIES OF
S/WVS RIDE OVER THE RIDGE.  ON SUNDAY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF POINT
AT A LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE HIGH PLAIN AND SETTING UP A WARM
FRONT OVER CENTRAL MN AND NRN WI...THIS COULD MEAN A CLOUDY AND WET
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK OVER THE FA. THE GFS KEEPS THE FRONT NEARLY
STATIONARY WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM.  AT
ANY RATE...THERE WILL BE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR ALL EXCEPT KBRD.
HAVE GONE WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES. WE MAY GET LIFR
CIGS...BUT AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN HAVE LEFT OFF FOR NOW. EXPECT
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BY 14Z. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 19Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH AND KHYR. MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. FOR NOW HAVE PUT IN VCTS
GROUPS...AND WE CAN REFINE WITH LATER ISSUANCES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  55  79  54 /  30  20  20  10
INL  80  52  79  51 /  10  10  20  10
BRD  80  56  82  56 /  10  10  20  10
HYR  77  51  81  53 /  30  30  30  20
ASX  77  52  74  52 /  30  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 300458
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP POP...TEMPERATURE AND
WIND TRENDS.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES AND ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WAS ALSO OCCURRING.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE AND END LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH AS WELL TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER FORTIES TO
LOWER FIFTIES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND 500MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE A BIT. WE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE A MENTION OF A SHOWER/STORM EAST OF A LINE FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS TO PINE CITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM
AGAIN THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
FILL AND VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING STAY/SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER DEW POINTS/OVERNIGHT CLEARING/LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR ALL EXCEPT KBRD.
HAVE GONE WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES. WE MAY GET LIFR
CIGS...BUT AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN HAVE LEFT OFF FOR NOW. EXPECT
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BY 14Z. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 19Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH AND KHYR. MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. FOR NOW HAVE PUT IN VCTS
GROUPS...AND WE CAN REFINE WITH LATER ISSUANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  53  79 /  60  20  10  20
INL  50  77  49  79 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  54  79  54  82 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  50  78  49  81 /  60  30  10  30
ASX  49  76  50  74 /  60  30  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 300458
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1158 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP POP...TEMPERATURE AND
WIND TRENDS.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES AND ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WAS ALSO OCCURRING.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE AND END LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH AS WELL TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER FORTIES TO
LOWER FIFTIES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND 500MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE A BIT. WE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE A MENTION OF A SHOWER/STORM EAST OF A LINE FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS TO PINE CITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM
AGAIN THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
FILL AND VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING STAY/SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER DEW POINTS/OVERNIGHT CLEARING/LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE NEXT 6-12
HOURS. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA ARE
FAVORABLE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY FOR ALL EXCEPT KBRD.
HAVE GONE WITH IFR TO LIFR VISIBILITIES. WE MAY GET LIFR
CIGS...BUT AS TIMING IS UNCERTAIN HAVE LEFT OFF FOR NOW. EXPECT
THAT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT NORTHWEST WILL RETURN WEDNESDAY
MORNING BY 14Z. DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 19Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH AND KHYR. MVFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES
EXPECTED WITH STRONGER STORMS. FOR NOW HAVE PUT IN VCTS
GROUPS...AND WE CAN REFINE WITH LATER ISSUANCES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  53  79 /  60  20  10  20
INL  50  77  49  79 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  54  79  54  82 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  50  78  49  81 /  60  30  10  30
ASX  49  76  50  74 /  60  30  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 292337
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP POP...TEMPERATURE AND
WIND TRENDS.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES AND ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WAS ALSO OCCURRING.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE AND END LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH AS WELL TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER FORTIES TO
LOWER FIFTIES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND 500MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE A BIT. WE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE A MENTION OF A SHOWER/STORM EAST OF A LINE FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS TO PINE CITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM
AGAIN THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
FILL AND VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING STAY/SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER DEW POINTS/OVERNIGHT CLEARING/LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
AFFECT KINL...KHIB...KDLH AND KHYR FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THEY
SHOUD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BE JUST SHOWERS BY 02Z AT THE LATEST.
WHERE THERE ARE STORMS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR FOR
VISBY...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD STAY MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AFTER 10Z TONIGHT PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISBY MAY AFFECT
THE SAME TERMINALS UNTIL 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO REFINE FOG POTENTIAL WITH 06Z
ISSUANCE. AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PUT
VCTS INTO TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  53  79 /  40  20  10  20
INL  50  77  49  79 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  54  79  54  82 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  50  78  49  81 /  40  30  10  30
ASX  49  76  50  74 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 292337
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP POP...TEMPERATURE AND
WIND TRENDS.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES AND ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WAS ALSO OCCURRING.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE AND END LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH AS WELL TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER FORTIES TO
LOWER FIFTIES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND 500MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE A BIT. WE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE A MENTION OF A SHOWER/STORM EAST OF A LINE FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS TO PINE CITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM
AGAIN THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
FILL AND VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING STAY/SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER DEW POINTS/OVERNIGHT CLEARING/LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
AFFECT KINL...KHIB...KDLH AND KHYR FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. THEY
SHOUD GRADUALLY DIMINISH AND BE JUST SHOWERS BY 02Z AT THE LATEST.
WHERE THERE ARE STORMS...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DROP TO IFR FOR
VISBY...THOUGH CIGS SHOULD STAY MVFR. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. AFTER 10Z TONIGHT PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR VISBY MAY AFFECT
THE SAME TERMINALS UNTIL 15Z WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN A RETURN TO
VFR IS EXPECTED. WILL HAVE TO REFINE FOG POTENTIAL WITH 06Z
ISSUANCE. AFTER 19Z WEDNESDAY DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. FOR NOW HAVE JUST PUT
VCTS INTO TERMINALS MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED WITH VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  53  79 /  40  20  10  20
INL  50  77  49  79 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  54  79  54  82 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  50  78  49  81 /  40  30  10  30
ASX  49  76  50  74 /  50  30  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE










000
FXUS63 KDLH 291949
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
249 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES AND ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WAS ALSO OCCURRING.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE AND END LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH AS WELL TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER FORTIES TO
LOWER FIFTIES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND 500MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE A BIT. WE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE A MENTION OF A SHOWER/STORM EAST OF A LINE FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS TO PINE CITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM
AGAIN THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
FILL AND VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING STAY/SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER DEW POINTS/OVERNIGHT CLEARING/LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KCDD...TO KHIB...KDLH..AND
SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...HAVE
CONTINUED TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AND WILL NEED TO AMEND AS ANY TSTMS
DEVELOP.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  53  79 /  40  20  10  20
INL  50  77  49  79 /  30  20  10  10
BRD  54  79  54  82 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  50  78  49  81 /  40  30  10  30
ASX  49  76  50  74 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 291949
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
249 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND FAR EASTERN
MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY EVENING AS MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500J/KG OVER OUR EASTERN MINNESOTA ZONES AND ACROSS
NORTHERN WISCONSIN. 30-40KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR WAS ALSO OCCURRING.

THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHERN HUDSON BAY WILL ONLY MOVE SLIGHTLY SOUTH
OVER THE NEXT 30 HOURS. THE SHOWERS/STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DISSIPATE AND END LATER THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CLOUDS
WILL DIMINISH AS WELL TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT IN MANY
LOCATIONS. WE ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND
LATE TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER FORTIES TO
LOWER FIFTIES.

NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AND 500MB TEMPS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE A BIT. WE INCREASED POPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
HAVE A MENTION OF A SHOWER/STORM EAST OF A LINE FROM INTERNATIONAL
FALLS TO PINE CITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE OVER
OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO THE COLDER TEMPS ALOFT. HIGHS WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CUT OFF LOW OVER
EASTERN ONTARIO/JAMES BAY...REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH AT
LEAST THURSDAY. THE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC FLOW AND COOL TEMPS ALOFT
WILL CREATE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/ISOLD TSTM
AGAIN THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW FINALLY BEGINS TO
FILL AND VERY SLOWLY PUSH EAST FRIDAY...WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF
RIDGING STAY/SAT NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED OVERNIGHT TEMPS THURSDAY NIGHT
AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DRIER DEW POINTS/OVERNIGHT CLEARING/LIGHT
WINDS ALLOW FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KCDD...TO KHIB...KDLH..AND
SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...HAVE
CONTINUED TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AND WILL NEED TO AMEND AS ANY TSTMS
DEVELOP.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  78  53  79 /  40  20  10  20
INL  50  77  49  79 /  30  20  10  10
BRD  54  79  54  82 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  50  78  49  81 /  40  30  10  30
ASX  49  76  50  74 /  40  30  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 291830
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
130 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY THE ARROWHEAD. WE HAD INCREASED POPS SOME
THIS MORNING IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS OCCURRING. MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF SHEAR DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH ONE INCH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM  CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN HAD ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.

UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KCDD...TO KHIB...KDLH..AND
SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...HAVE
CONTINUED TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AND WILL NEED TO AMEND AS ANY TSTMS
DEVELOP.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  56  78 /  40  20  10  30
INL  50  78  52  78 /  30  10  10  30
BRD  56  79  57  81 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  52  77  53  79 /  40  20  10  40
ASX  50  75  53  76 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 291830
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
130 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 130 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASING ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY THE ARROWHEAD. WE HAD INCREASED POPS SOME
THIS MORNING IN ANTICIPATION OF THIS OCCURRING. MLCAPE VALUES HAVE
RISEN TO AROUND 500 J/KG OVER MUCH OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHERN WISCONSIN WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF SHEAR DEEP LAYER SHEAR. AN
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH ONE INCH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT.

THE STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN/DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 651 AM  CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN HAD ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.

UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KCDD...TO KHIB...KDLH..AND
SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...HAVE
CONTINUED TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AND WILL NEED TO AMEND AS ANY TSTMS
DEVELOP.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  56  78 /  40  20  10  30
INL  50  78  52  78 /  30  10  10  30
BRD  56  79  57  81 /  10  10   0  20
HYR  52  77  53  79 /  40  20  10  40
ASX  50  75  53  76 /  40  20  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 291732
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM  CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN HAD ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.

UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KCDD...TO KHIB...KDLH..AND
SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...HAVE
CONTINUED TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AND WILL NEED TO AMEND AS ANY TSTMS
DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  57  76  56 /  50  40  20  10
INL  77  50  78  52 /  30  30  10  10
BRD  78  56  79  57 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  75  52  77  53 /  50  40  20  10
ASX  73  50  75  53 /  50  40  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 291732
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM  CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN HAD ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.

UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

VFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL TRIGGER SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE MAIN THREAT FOR THE SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KCDD...TO KHIB...KDLH..AND
SOUTH ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME STRONG THIS EVENING...MAINLY OVER NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE AND TIMING...HAVE
CONTINUED TO HANDLE WITH VCSH AND WILL NEED TO AMEND AS ANY TSTMS
DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  57  76  56 /  50  40  20  10
INL  77  50  78  52 /  30  30  10  10
BRD  78  56  79  57 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  75  52  77  53 /  50  40  20  10
ASX  73  50  75  53 /  50  40  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 291152 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
652 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM  CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN HAD ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.

UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AROUND 10 TO 12 KFT
AND VERY LIGHT WNW WIND. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KT
FROM THE NW BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR THE
KHIB/KDLH/KHYR AREAS. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS. THE SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE FOG IN THE KHYR AREA LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  57  76  56 /  30  20  20  10
INL  77  50  78  52 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  78  56  79  57 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  75  52  77  53 /  40  20  20  10
ASX  73  50  75  53 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRG
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 291152 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
652 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 651 AM  CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

ISOLATED SHOWERS A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN HAD ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.

UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AROUND 10 TO 12 KFT
AND VERY LIGHT WNW WIND. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KT
FROM THE NW BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR THE
KHIB/KDLH/KHYR AREAS. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS. THE SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE FOG IN THE KHYR AREA LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  57  76  56 /  30  20  20  10
INL  77  50  78  52 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  78  56  79  57 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  75  52  77  53 /  40  20  20  10
ASX  73  50  75  53 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRG
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 291140 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.

UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD VFR CONDITIONS EARLY
THIS MORNING. THERE WAS SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER AROUND 10 TO 12 KFT
AND VERY LIGHT WNW WIND. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TO ABOUT 10 KT
FROM THE NW BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE INCREASING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY FOR THE
KHIB/KDLH/KHYR AREAS. THERE COULD BE ISOLATED STORMS. THE SHOWERS
WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AND THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE FOG IN THE KHYR AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  57  76  56 /  30  20  20  10
INL  77  50  78  52 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  78  56  79  57 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  75  52  77  53 /  40  20  20  10
ASX  73  50  75  53 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRG
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 290858
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
358 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.

UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN BE A BREAK
IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN LINGER
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT
SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  57  76  56 /  30  20  20  10
INL  77  50  78  52 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  78  56  79  57 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  75  52  77  53 /  40  20  20  10
ASX  73  50  75  53 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRG
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 290858
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
358 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAYS WEATHER EXCEPT SHOWERS AND SOME
SCATTERED STORMS MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD.

UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND WITH DIURNAL HEATING
AND COLD AIR ALOFT EXPECT MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...MAINLY
EAST OF A LINE FROM INL THROUGH GPZ AND PINE CITY AND ALL OF NWRN
WI. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NEXT EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE ACROSS
NORTH CENTRAL ONTARIO HEADING TOWARD THE MN ARROWHEAD. DRYDEN
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE S/WV MOVING SOUTH.
STABILITY INDEXES ABOUT THE SAME AS YESTERDAY ALSO...ABOUT 1000
CAPE. CONVECTIVE TEMPS AROUND 70 SHOULD BE REACHED AROUND NOON.
COULD BE SOME SMALL HAIL WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER TOPS WITH LOW
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS AROUND 9000-9500 FT AGL. RUC FORECAST 50DBZ
HEIGHTS FOR 1 INCH HAIL IS ABOUT 22000-2300 FT...SO LOW-TOPPED COLD
STORMS TODAY. THERE WILL BE A DECREASE IN COVERAGE LATER
TONIGHT...THEN A NEAR REPEAT ON WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HOVER OVER THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER REGION
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT NW TO NORTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE NORTHLAND. DAYTIME HEATING AND EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES IN THE
NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CAUSE LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...PRIMARILY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SEASONAL WITH HIGHS INT
HE MID TO UPPER 70S.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL FINALLY SHIFT NE TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OCEAN FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT AND WARM WESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING WEAK COLD
FRONT IN CANADA. HIGHS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S AND
LOW 80S.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT AS TO THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT.
THE GFS STALLS THE FRONT OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA OR NEAR THE
CANADIAN BORDER SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND MOVES
EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE ECMWF DROPS THE COLD FRONT SOUTH
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY AND STALLS THE FRONT OVER SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS
WOULD SUGGEST LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHEN THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND STALLS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND THEN INCREASING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WHEN THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF WOULD SUGGEST
LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHEN THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THEN DRY WEATHER
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.
BASICALLY...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE FORECAST FOR THE LATTER HALF OF
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL THE GFS AND ECMWF CAN COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN BE A BREAK
IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN LINGER
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT
SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  57  76  56 /  30  20  20  10
INL  77  50  78  52 /  20  20  10  10
BRD  78  56  79  57 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  75  52  77  53 /  40  20  20  10
ASX  73  50  75  53 /  50  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRG
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 290528 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO...CRUISING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. CANADIAN
RADAR IS SHOWING SCT SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS AS FAR WEST AS RED LAKE
ONTARIO (CYRL)...OR ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH OF KINL. HAVE SPREAD
POPS WEST ALONG THE BORDERLAND THIS EVENING AS THIS WAVE BECOMES
THE FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL BE OVER THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD AND INTO NRN WISCONSIN.
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLD THUNDER AS LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
AT KELO/KHYR SHOW GENERALLY 500-900 J/KG OF CAPE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY...WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CHC FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DLH
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL REMAIN THERE FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE FA UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE FA AS THEY ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH ONE BATCH EXITING THE WI ZONES EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WINS OUT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT BATCH OF STORMS COMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LONGER WAVE
TROF PASSES OVER THE FA. LINGERED SOME POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE NW WI FA. SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE INROADS TO THE FA AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN BE A BREAK
IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN LINGER
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT
SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  56  77 /   0  10  10  30
INL  50  78  52  78 /   0  10   0  20
BRD  56  79  57  80 /   0  10   0  20
HYR  52  77  53  78 /  10  10  10  30
ASX  50  75  53  75 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 290528 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

CURRENT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A VORT MAX OVER WESTERN
ONTARIO...CRUISING SOUTH INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. CANADIAN
RADAR IS SHOWING SCT SHOWERS/FEW TSTMS AS FAR WEST AS RED LAKE
ONTARIO (CYRL)...OR ABOUT 150 MILES NORTH OF KINL. HAVE SPREAD
POPS WEST ALONG THE BORDERLAND THIS EVENING AS THIS WAVE BECOMES
THE FOCUS FOR SCT SHOWERS OVERNIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL BE OVER THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD AND INTO NRN WISCONSIN.
HAVE KEPT A MENTION OF ISOLD THUNDER AS LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS
AT KELO/KHYR SHOW GENERALLY 500-900 J/KG OF CAPE THROUGH THE
NIGHT. THE UNSTABLE CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES TUESDAY...WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND CHC FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE DLH
CWA.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL REMAIN THERE FROM TUESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP THE FA UNDER A NW FLOW ALOFT.
PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PASS OVER THE FA AS THEY ROTATE
AROUND THE UPPER LOW. THIS WILL BRING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH ONE BATCH EXITING THE WI ZONES EARLY TUESDAY EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE WINS OUT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
NEXT BATCH OF STORMS COMES THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LONGER WAVE
TROF PASSES OVER THE FA. LINGERED SOME POPS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE NW WI FA. SATURDAY WILL BE QUIET WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
TO MAKE INROADS TO THE FA AND GENERATE SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1228 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

A DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THERE WILL THEN BE A BREAK
IN THE PRECIPITATION BEFORE MORE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. THESE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL THEN LINGER
INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BUT
SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE BRIEFLY WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  56  77 /   0  10  10  30
INL  50  78  52  78 /   0  10   0  20
BRD  56  79  57  80 /   0  10   0  20
HYR  52  77  53  78 /  10  10  10  30
ASX  50  75  53  75 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







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