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000
FXUS63 KDLH 240212
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
912 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 912 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SPOTTERS/OBSERVATIONS REVEAL MORE SLEET/SNOW OCCURRING THIS
EVENING THAN WHAT WAS EARLIER EXPECTED. WE HAVE UPDATED GRIDS TO
ADD MORE SLEET SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF LINE FROM PINE RIVER TO MOOSE LAKE AND ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AN AREA OF MID LEVEL FGEN CONTINUES TO
IMPACT THE NORTHLAND WITH BOTH DYNAMIC/EVAPORATIVE COOLING LEADING
TO COOLER COLUMN TEMPERATURES. WE UPPED SNOW AMOUNTS SOME...AND
COULD SEE SOME AREAS GET AN INCH OR TWO OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

RAIN WAS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST CWA INTO OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH. DRY AIR OVER THE REST OF THE
CWA WAS SLOWING THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. SOME SLEET WAS
ALSO REPORTED OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. STRONG FGEN FORCING WAS
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE NAM SHOWS THE
FGEN WEAKENING SOME AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE PRECIP TYPE THIS EVENING...AS SOUNDINGS ARE CLOSE
TO BEING RAIN OR SNOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

WE WILL ALSO UPDATE TO ADD SOME THUNDER TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
WHERE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DETECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AT 330 PM...LIGHT RAIN HAD FINALLY SPREAD INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA...AS A NW TO SE BAND OF RAIN SLOWLY MIGRATED TO THE NE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA SAW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LOW TO MID 50S.
WINDS WERE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SE WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AS THE COLUMN STARTS
TO COOL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GFS AS THE WARMEST
MODEL...WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM BEING SIMILAR AND COLDER. THINK ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. EAST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF EVENTUAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND TIMING OF COOLING. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS ALL
SHOW MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF RUN TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. IN FACT...THE
NAM AND ECMWF SUPPORT ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MAINLY COOK COUNTY. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE ENTIRE ARROWHEAD REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING 6
INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THE
INITIAL SNOW WILL GO INTO MELTING...ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS SO WILL
BE A LITTLE CAREFUL ABOUT GOING TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT ON
SNOWFALL. NONETHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW NOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
ARROWHEAD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE WATCH
AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF SOME ICE...FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET...BUT THINK THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO CURRENT TRENDS FAIRLY WELL AND
WILL USE A COMBINATION OF THE HRRR/RAP AND 4 KM NMM WRF FOR THE
SHORT TERM TRENDS. CURRENT THOUGHT IS AN INCH OR TWO IN
DULUTH...AND MAYBE ADVISORY TYPE SNOW JUST OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE PCPN TYPES...SPECIFICALLY RAIN AND SNOW AND A MIXTURE
OF BOTH. COMPLEXITY IS ADDED BY THE TIME OF THE YEAR AND SURFACE AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM. BASICALLY...THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA HAVE THE THREAT OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
THERE ARE CONCERNS THOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF MELTING
AND COMPACTING OF THE SNOW THAT DOES FALL SINCE IT IS LATE APRIL AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE AREA UNDER THREAT
FROM SNOW. THE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
HEAVY ACCUMULATION THAT THE MODELS ARE OTHERWISE SUGGESTING.
NONETHELESS...THE WEATHER FOR THE ARROWHEAD WILL LIKELY BE A MESS
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO EITHER HEAVY
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOW VISIBILITIES
ARE LIKELY SINCE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE THAT DRIVERS SHOULD SEE IS
SNOW...EVEN IF MUCH OF IT MELTS ON THE ROAD. WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...AND
NOT ON THE ROADS SINCE THE ROADS WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT MELTING
OF THE SNOW. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MAINLY SEE LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN OR VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...EVEN IF SATURDAY WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE
COULD MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
HOWEVER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...PCPN FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
FROM THE PARENTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. I KEPT THE LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS SYSTEM LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND FORECASTED DRY WEATHER FOR
THE TWIN PORTS AREA. IF THE NORTHLAND DOES GET ANY PCPN...IT COULD
BE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER KBRD WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT
AS PRECIPITATION ADVANCES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. WE EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN...BUT SOME SLEET AND
SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER SOUTHWEST
AREAS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  40  31  45 / 100  90  70  30
INL  36  43  32  45 / 100  90  80  40
BRD  38  48  33  54 /  90  80  30  20
HYR  38  46  33  51 / 100  90  60  30
ASX  36  43  32  46 /  80  90  80  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR MNZ012-020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 240000
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
700 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

RAIN WAS OCCURRING ACROSS OUR SOUTHWEST CWA INTO OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS...AND WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH. DRY AIR OVER THE REST OF THE
CWA WAS SLOWING THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. SOME SLEET WAS
ALSO REPORTED OVER OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES. STRONG FGEN FORCING WAS
AIDING IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION. THE NAM SHOWS THE
FGEN WEAKENING SOME AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST. WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP A
CLOSE EYE ON THE PRECIP TYPE THIS EVENING...AS SOUNDINGS ARE CLOSE
TO BEING RAIN OR SNOW. THIS COULD LEAD TO SOME MORE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS IN SPOTS TONIGHT.

WE WILL ALSO UPDATE TO ADD SOME THUNDER TO OUR SOUTHWEST ZONES
WHERE SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY BEEN DETECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AT 330 PM...LIGHT RAIN HAD FINALLY SPREAD INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA...AS A NW TO SE BAND OF RAIN SLOWLY MIGRATED TO THE NE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA SAW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LOW TO MID 50S.
WINDS WERE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SE WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AS THE COLUMN STARTS
TO COOL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GFS AS THE WARMEST
MODEL...WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM BEING SIMILAR AND COLDER. THINK ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. EAST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF EVENTUAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND TIMING OF COOLING. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS ALL
SHOW MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF RUN TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. IN FACT...THE
NAM AND ECMWF SUPPORT ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MAINLY COOK COUNTY. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE ENTIRE ARROWHEAD REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING 6
INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THE
INITIAL SNOW WILL GO INTO MELTING...ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS SO WILL
BE A LITTLE CAREFUL ABOUT GOING TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT ON
SNOWFALL. NONETHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW NOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
ARROWHEAD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE WATCH
AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF SOME ICE...FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET...BUT THINK THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO CURRENT TRENDS FAIRLY WELL AND
WILL USE A COMBINATION OF THE HRRR/RAP AND 4 KM NMM WRF FOR THE
SHORT TERM TRENDS. CURRENT THOUGHT IS AN INCH OR TWO IN
DULUTH...AND MAYBE ADVISORY TYPE SNOW JUST OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE PCPN TYPES...SPECIFICALLY RAIN AND SNOW AND A MIXTURE
OF BOTH. COMPLEXITY IS ADDED BY THE TIME OF THE YEAR AND SURFACE AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM. BASICALLY...THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA HAVE THE THREAT OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
THERE ARE CONCERNS THOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF MELTING
AND COMPACTING OF THE SNOW THAT DOES FALL SINCE IT IS LATE APRIL AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE AREA UNDER THREAT
FROM SNOW. THE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
HEAVY ACCUMULATION THAT THE MODELS ARE OTHERWISE SUGGESTING.
NONETHELESS...THE WEATHER FOR THE ARROWHEAD WILL LIKELY BE A MESS
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO EITHER HEAVY
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOW VISIBILITIES
ARE LIKELY SINCE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE THAT DRIVERS SHOULD SEE IS
SNOW...EVEN IF MUCH OF IT MELTS ON THE ROAD. WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...AND
NOT ON THE ROADS SINCE THE ROADS WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT MELTING
OF THE SNOW. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MAINLY SEE LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN OR VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...EVEN IF SATURDAY WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE
COULD MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
HOWEVER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...PCPN FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
FROM THE PARENTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. I KEPT THE LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS SYSTEM LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND FORECASTED DRY WEATHER FOR
THE TWIN PORTS AREA. IF THE NORTHLAND DOES GET ANY PCPN...IT COULD
BE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 700 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER KBRD WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT
AS PRECIPITATION ADVANCES TOWARD THE NORTHEAST. WE EXPECT MOST
AREAS TO SEE CONDITIONS LOWER TO MVFR AND EVEN IFR THROUGH THE
PERIOD. PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE MOSTLY RAIN...BUT SOME SLEET AND
SNOW WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AND HAS BEEN REPORTED OVER SOUTHWEST
AREAS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  40  31  45 / 100  90  70  30
INL  36  43  32  45 / 100  90  80  40
BRD  38  48  33  54 /  90  80  30  20
HYR  38  46  33  51 / 100  90  60  30
ASX  36  43  32  46 /  80  90  80  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR MNZ012-020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 232034
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
334 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AT 330 PM...LIGHT RAIN HAD FINALLY SPREAD INTO THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA...AS A NW TO SE BAND OF RAIN SLOWLY MIGRATED TO THE NE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA SAW TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN LOW TO MID 50S.
WINDS WERE A BIT GUSTY FROM THE SE WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 20 MPH
RANGE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM
SYSTEM THAT WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW ACCUMULATION TO AT LEAST THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT...AND MAY BEGIN TO MIX WITH
SOME SNOW...ESPECIALLY FURTHER NORTH AND EAST AS THE COLUMN STARTS
TO COOL. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW THE GFS AS THE WARMEST
MODEL...WITH THE ECMWF AND NAM BEING SIMILAR AND COLDER. THINK ANY
SNOW ACCUMULATION OVERNIGHT WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE. EAST WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THE
MODELS ARE IN A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT IN TERMS OF EVENTUAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION AND TIMING OF COOLING. THE NAM...ECMWF AND GFS ALL
SHOW MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF RUN TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FURTHER SOUTH. IN FACT...THE
NAM AND ECMWF SUPPORT ABOUT A FOOT OF SNOW IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF MAINLY COOK COUNTY. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH
FOR THE ENTIRE ARROWHEAD REGION FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEEING 6
INCHES OF SNOW OR GREATER. AM A BIT CONCERNED THAT SOME OF THE
INITIAL SNOW WILL GO INTO MELTING...ESPECIALLY ON ROADWAYS SO WILL
BE A LITTLE CAREFUL ABOUT GOING TOO HIGH AT THIS POINT ON
SNOWFALL. NONETHELESS...IT LOOKS LIKE A PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY
HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. MORE THAN 6 INCHES OF SNOW NOW APPEARS LIKELY FOR THE
ARROWHEAD WITH LESSER AMOUNTS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF THE WATCH
AREA. THERE COULD ALSO BE A PERIOD OF SOME ICE...FREEZING RAIN OR
SLEET...BUT THINK THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

WILL GO WITH HIGH POPS ACROSS THE BOARD TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO CURRENT TRENDS FAIRLY WELL AND
WILL USE A COMBINATION OF THE HRRR/RAP AND 4 KM NMM WRF FOR THE
SHORT TERM TRENDS. CURRENT THOUGHT IS AN INCH OR TWO IN
DULUTH...AND MAYBE ADVISORY TYPE SNOW JUST OUTSIDE OF THE WATCH
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE FOCUS IS ON THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL CONTINUE MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS DIFFICULT TO FORECAST DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR MULTIPLE PCPN TYPES...SPECIFICALLY RAIN AND SNOW AND A MIXTURE
OF BOTH. COMPLEXITY IS ADDED BY THE TIME OF THE YEAR AND SURFACE AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WITH THIS SYSTEM. BASICALLY...THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA HAVE THE THREAT OF SEEING SIGNIFICANT SNOW.
THERE ARE CONCERNS THOUGH THAT THERE COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF MELTING
AND COMPACTING OF THE SNOW THAT DOES FALL SINCE IT IS LATE APRIL AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 30S FOR THE AREA UNDER THREAT
FROM SNOW. THE TEMPERATURES MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH TO PREVENT THE
HEAVY ACCUMULATION THAT THE MODELS ARE OTHERWISE SUGGESTING.
NONETHELESS...THE WEATHER FOR THE ARROWHEAD WILL LIKELY BE A MESS
FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO EITHER HEAVY
ACCUMULATING SNOW OR A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW. LOW VISIBILITIES
ARE LIKELY SINCE THE MAIN PCPN TYPE THAT DRIVERS SHOULD SEE IS
SNOW...EVEN IF MUCH OF IT MELTS ON THE ROAD. WE DECIDED TO ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERAL INCHES OR MORE. THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY BE NEAR THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...AND
NOT ON THE ROADS SINCE THE ROADS WILL LIKELY SEE SIGNIFICANT MELTING
OF THE SNOW. THE REST OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD MAINLY SEE LIGHT
TO MODERATE RAIN OR VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.
THIS SHOULD PROVIDE DRY WEATHER FOR SATURDAY...EVEN IF SATURDAY WILL
BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

THERE IS LESS CERTAINTY ABOUT EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH PRESSURE
COULD MAINTAIN THE COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.
HOWEVER...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP IN THE PLAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AND MOVE INTO THE MIDWEST TUESDAY.
HOWEVER...PCPN FROM THE INVERTED TROUGH IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND
FROM THE PARENTS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD MOVE INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. I KEPT THE LOW PCPN CHANCES FOR THIS SYSTEM LIMITED TO THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND FORECASTED DRY WEATHER FOR
THE TWIN PORTS AREA. IF THE NORTHLAND DOES GET ANY PCPN...IT COULD
BE PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND LIGHT SNOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

NE MINNESOTA AND NW ONTARIO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THANKS TO DRY SE WINDS ORIGINATING FROM DRY AIR OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH OF THE REGION HAD BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER
AROUND 8 TO 12 KFT. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL HAS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
STRETCHING FROM NE NORTH DAKOTA TO SE MINNESOTA. THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE INTO THE NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TERMINALS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND CAN ANTICIPATE A TRANSITION FROM VFR TO MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TONIGHT AS THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE COULD
BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...SUCH AS AT KDLH AND KHIB WHERE THERE
COULD BE SOME -SN MIXED IN WITH THE -RA.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN...MAYBE MIXED WITH SNOW AT
KDLH/KHIB/KINL...LATER THURSDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE KBRD AND KHYR COULD SEE BRIEF WIND SHEAR ISSUES TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SSE WINDS OF
ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BELOW 2 KFT. THESE WINDS ARE
NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING WIND SHEAR TO THE
FORECASTS...BUT IF NEWER MODELS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS...THEN WE
MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE WIND SHEAR. IT APPEARS THE SSE WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE STRONGEST AT KBRD AND KHYR...SO THAT IS WHERE WIND SHEAR
WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  40  31  45 / 100  90  70  30
INL  36  43  32  45 / 100  90  80  40
BRD  38  48  33  54 /  90  80  30  20
HYR  38  46  33  51 / 100  90  60  30
ASX  36  43  32  46 /  80  90  80  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
     MORNING FOR MNZ012-020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 231743 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1243 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT A BIT. DEFORMATION AREA
WAS TRYING TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE CWA BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
HOLDING IT OFF A BIT DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA RANGED FROM THE TEENS IN THE ARROWHEAD TO
20S ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TEMP
MODIFICATIONS AND MAY EVEN HAVE TO RAISE THEM MORE IN THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NW WI AT 07Z.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE IN PLAY WITH SOME WAA CI ARRIVING FROM THE
SW ALONG WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS. PCPN IN SE ND AND NE SD IS TRYING TO
PROGRESS FARTHER EWD INTO MN...BUT IS BEING MET BY THE VERY DRY IN
PLACE AND IS ERODING. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE FA A BIT AND BRING IN SMALL POPS STARTING AT 15Z. THE
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAVE SLOWLY
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SW WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE FA PCPN
FREE IN THE MORNING WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP. BY
AFTERNOON...HAVE GRADUALLY RAMPED UP POPS FROM SW TO NE KEEPING THE
ARROWHEAD PCPN FREE.

THE PCPN IS ALL LIQUID IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVERNIGHT. THE DRY AIR FROM THE HUDSON BASED HIGH WILL ATTEMPT
TO KEEP THE PCPN FROM MOVING TOO FAR EWD TOO QUICKLY AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE PCPN BEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX HAVE
REMOVED THE SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR RESULTS IN A SNOW MENTION.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AS THE DRY AIR WARRANTS KEEPING
THE POPS LOW. OTHERWISE...THE PCPN FINALLY REACHES THE REST OF THE
FA. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS MODELS HAVE COME IN WITH LOWER AMOUNTS
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE VICISSITUDES OF SPRING ARE UPON US ONCE AGAIN IN THE NORTHLAND.
AS SO ELOQUENTLY STATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. IF TODAYS NWP
IS MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WE WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDER
HOISTING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN FOR LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAJORITY OF MDLS TAKE THE INITIAL MID LVL LOW
OVER SRN ALBERTA AND AMPLIFY THE PARENT WAVE AS IT ELONGATES AND
REDEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE THUR NIGHT. THIS WOULD
PLACE A COMBINATION OF STRONG OMEGA AND FROZEN PTYPE PROFILES OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. ALTHOUGH RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE RANGE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS THE PROGRESSION OF THE 85/70H LOWS
OVER THE SRN ARROWHEAD WOULD TEND TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER CAUTION MUST BE ADVISED AS A MORE SOUTHERN
SOUTH TRACK OF THE SALIENT MID LVL FEATURES COULD BRING COLDER
THERMAL PROFILES AND HIGHER PROB OF MORE SNOW. LATEST WPC
PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2
INCHES WOULD BE FAVORED NORTH OF THE TWIN PORTS...WITH A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT IN AMOUNTS FROM DULUTH TO GRAND MARAIS.
INITIAL GUESSTIMATE IS THAT A SIG SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY EAST OF AN
ELY TO SILVER BAY LINE. LINGERING PRECIP IS LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DRYING OCCURS.A DRY SPELL SEEMS TO BE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS A LARGE SFC HIGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER NRN
ONTARIO...AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL
THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SRN PLAINS AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM ORGANIZES
AND MOVES TOWARDS ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE TRACK WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE CWA. LOW POPS ARE
INCLUDED OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA TUESDAY HOWEVER THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

NE MINNESOTA AND NW ONTARIO HAVE VFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON THANKS TO DRY SE WINDS ORIGINATING FROM DRY AIR OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. MUCH OF THE REGION HAD BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER
AROUND 8 TO 12 KFT. HOWEVER...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA WILL HAS A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS AND LOWER CIGS
STRETCHING FROM NE NORTH DAKOTA TO SE MINNESOTA. THIS BAND IS
EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NE INTO THE NE MINNESOTA AND NW
WISCONSIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. TERMINALS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND CAN ANTICIPATE A TRANSITION FROM VFR TO MVFR CIGS AND
VSBYS TONIGHT AS THIS BAND MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE COULD
BE BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS...SUCH AS AT KDLH AND KHIB WHERE THERE
COULD BE SOME -SN MIXED IN WITH THE -RA.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SURGE OF RAIN...MAYBE MIXED WITH SNOW AT
KDLH/KHIB/KINL...LATER THURSDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD BEGIN TO
DEVELOP WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS.

THE KBRD AND KHYR COULD SEE BRIEF WIND SHEAR ISSUES TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT SSE WINDS OF
ABOUT 30 TO 35 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP BELOW 2 KFT. THESE WINDS ARE
NOT QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT ADDING WIND SHEAR TO THE
FORECASTS...BUT IF NEWER MODELS INDICATE STRONGER WINDS...THEN WE
MIGHT NEED TO INCLUDE WIND SHEAR. IT APPEARS THE SSE WINDS ALOFT
WILL BE STRONGEST AT KBRD AND KHYR...SO THAT IS WHERE WIND SHEAR
WOULD MOSTLY LIKELY NEED TO BE ADDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  33  42  32 /  10 100  90  60
INL  57  36  43  32 /  10 100  90  70
BRD  49  38  49  35 /  80  90  80  20
HYR  57  38  49  34 /  30 100  90  60
ASX  51  36  45  33 /  10  80  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 231620
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1120 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1118 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

HAVE BACKED OFF TIMING OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT A BIT. DEFORMATION AREA
WAS TRYING TO MAKE INROADS INTO THE CWA BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE
HOLDING IT OFF A BIT DUE TO DRY AIR IN PLACE ACROSS THE CWA.
DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE CWA RANGED FROM THE TEENS IN THE ARROWHEAD TO
20S ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME MINOR TEMP
MODIFICATIONS AND MAY EVEN HAVE TO RAISE THEM MORE IN THE NORTH.
OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NW WI AT 07Z.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE IN PLAY WITH SOME WAA CI ARRIVING FROM THE
SW ALONG WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS. PCPN IN SE ND AND NE SD IS TRYING TO
PROGRESS FARTHER EWD INTO MN...BUT IS BEING MET BY THE VERY DRY IN
PLACE AND IS ERODING. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE FA A BIT AND BRING IN SMALL POPS STARTING AT 15Z. THE
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAVE SLOWLY
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SW WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE FA PCPN
FREE IN THE MORNING WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP. BY
AFTERNOON...HAVE GRADUALLY RAMPED UP POPS FROM SW TO NE KEEPING THE
ARROWHEAD PCPN FREE.

THE PCPN IS ALL LIQUID IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVERNIGHT. THE DRY AIR FROM THE HUDSON BASED HIGH WILL ATTEMPT
TO KEEP THE PCPN FROM MOVING TOO FAR EWD TOO QUICKLY AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE PCPN BEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX HAVE
REMOVED THE SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR RESULTS IN A SNOW MENTION.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AS THE DRY AIR WARRANTS KEEPING
THE POPS LOW. OTHERWISE...THE PCPN FINALLY REACHES THE REST OF THE
FA. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS MODELS HAVE COME IN WITH LOWER AMOUNTS
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE VICISSITUDES OF SPRING ARE UPON US ONCE AGAIN IN THE NORTHLAND.
AS SO ELOQUENTLY STATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. IF TODAYS NWP
IS MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WE WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDER
HOISTING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN FOR LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAJORITY OF MDLS TAKE THE INITIAL MID LVL LOW
OVER SRN ALBERTA AND AMPLIFY THE PARENT WAVE AS IT ELONGATES AND
REDEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE THUR NIGHT. THIS WOULD
PLACE A COMBINATION OF STRONG OMEGA AND FROZEN PTYPE PROFILES OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. ALTHOUGH RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE RANGE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS THE PROGRESSION OF THE 85/70H LOWS
OVER THE SRN ARROWHEAD WOULD TEND TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER CAUTION MUST BE ADVISED AS A MORE SOUTHERN
SOUTH TRACK OF THE SALIENT MID LVL FEATURES COULD BRING COLDER
THERMAL PROFILES AND HIGHER PROB OF MORE SNOW. LATEST WPC
PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2
INCHES WOULD BE FAVORED NORTH OF THE TWIN PORTS...WITH A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT IN AMOUNTS FROM DULUTH TO GRAND MARAIS.
INITIAL GUESSTIMATE IS THAT A SIG SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY EAST OF AN
ELY TO SILVER BAY LINE. LINGERING PRECIP IS LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DRYING OCCURS.A DRY SPELL SEEMS TO BE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS A LARGE SFC HIGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER NRN
ONTARIO...AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL
THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SRN PLAINS AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM ORGANIZES
AND MOVES TOWARDS ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE TRACK WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE CWA. LOW POPS ARE
INCLUDED OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA TUESDAY HOWEVER THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FCST WHICH BRINGS LOWERING
CEILINGS TODAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM WEST. EXPECT RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AT KBRD...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. NEXT UPDATES MAY NEED TO LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR BY
TOMORROW MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. THERE IS A CHC THAT LLWS MAY
DEVLOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDNCE
INCREASES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  33  42  32 /  10 100  90  60
INL  57  36  43  32 /  10 100  90  70
BRD  49  38  49  35 /  80  90  80  20
HYR  57  38  49  34 /  30 100  90  60
ASX  51  36  45  33 /  10  80  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON








000
FXUS63 KDLH 231140 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
640 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NW WI AT 07Z.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE IN PLAY WITH SOME WAA CI ARRIVING FROM THE
SW ALONG WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS. PCPN IN SE ND AND NE SD IS TRYING TO
PROGRESS FARTHER EWD INTO MN...BUT IS BEING MET BY THE VERY DRY IN
PLACE AND IS ERODING. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE FA A BIT AND BRING IN SMALL POPS STARTING AT 15Z. THE
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAVE SLOWLY
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SW WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE FA PCPN
FREE IN THE MORNING WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP. BY
AFTERNOON...HAVE GRADUALLY RAMPED UP POPS FROM SW TO NE KEEPING THE
ARROWHEAD PCPN FREE.

THE PCPN IS ALL LIQUID IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVERNIGHT. THE DRY AIR FROM THE HUDSON BASED HIGH WILL ATTEMPT
TO KEEP THE PCPN FROM MOVING TOO FAR EWD TOO QUICKLY AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE PCPN BEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX HAVE
REMOVED THE SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR RESULTS IN A SNOW MENTION.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AS THE DRY AIR WARRANTS KEEPING
THE POPS LOW. OTHERWISE...THE PCPN FINALLY REACHES THE REST OF THE
FA. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS MODELS HAVE COME IN WITH LOWER AMOUNTS
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE VICISSITUDES OF SPRING ARE UPON US ONCE AGAIN IN THE NORTHLAND.
AS SO ELOQUENTLY STATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. IF TODAYS NWP
IS MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WE WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDER
HOISTING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN FOR LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAJORITY OF MDLS TAKE THE INITIAL MID LVL LOW
OVER SRN ALBERTA AND AMPLIFY THE PARENT WAVE AS IT ELONGATES AND
REDEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE THUR NIGHT. THIS WOULD
PLACE A COMBINATION OF STRONG OMEGA AND FROZEN PTYPE PROFILES OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. ALTHOUGH RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE RANGE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS THE PROGRESSION OF THE 85/70H LOWS
OVER THE SRN ARROWHEAD WOULD TEND TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER CAUTION MUST BE ADVISED AS A MORE SOUTHERN
SOUTH TRACK OF THE SALIENT MID LVL FEATURES COULD BRING COLDER
THERMAL PROFILES AND HIGHER PROB OF MORE SNOW. LATEST WPC
PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2
INCHES WOULD BE FAVORED NORTH OF THE TWIN PORTS...WITH A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT IN AMOUNTS FROM DULUTH TO GRAND MARAIS.
INITIAL GUESSTIMATE IS THAT A SIG SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY EAST OF AN
ELY TO SILVER BAY LINE. LINGERING PRECIP IS LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DRYING OCCURS.A DRY SPELL SEEMS TO BE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS A LARGE SFC HIGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER NRN
ONTARIO...AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL
THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SRN PLAINS AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM ORGANIZES
AND MOVES TOWARDS ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE TRACK WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE CWA. LOW POPS ARE
INCLUDED OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA TUESDAY HOWEVER THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAINTAINED CONTINUITY FROM PREVIOUS FCST WHICH BRINGS LOWERING
CEILINGS TODAY AS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM WEST. EXPECT RAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AT KBRD...AND ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. NEXT UPDATES MAY NEED TO LOWER CONDITIONS TO IFR BY
TOMORROW MORNING IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE. THERE IS A CHC THAT LLWS MAY
DEVLOP AFTER MIDNIGHT BUT WILL LEAVE OUT FOR NOW UNTIL CONFIDNCE
INCREASES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  33  38  32 /  30 100  90  60
INL  56  36  41  32 /  20 100  90  70
BRD  47  39  47  35 /  80 100  80  20
HYR  53  36  45  34 /  30 100  90  60
ASX  48  34  42  33 /  20  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON








000
FXUS63 KDLH 230911
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
411 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

A SFC RIDGE AXIS WAS LOCATED OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NW WI AT 07Z.
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES WERE IN PLAY WITH SOME WAA CI ARRIVING FROM THE
SW ALONG WITH A FEW MID CLOUDS. PCPN IN SE ND AND NE SD IS TRYING TO
PROGRESS FARTHER EWD INTO MN...BUT IS BEING MET BY THE VERY DRY IN
PLACE AND IS ERODING. HAVE SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN INTO THE SW
CORNER OF THE FA A BIT AND BRING IN SMALL POPS STARTING AT 15Z. THE
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AND HAVE SLOWLY
INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SW WHILE KEEPING THE REST OF THE FA PCPN
FREE IN THE MORNING WHILE THE ATMOSPHERE MOISTENS UP. BY
AFTERNOON...HAVE GRADUALLY RAMPED UP POPS FROM SW TO NE KEEPING THE
ARROWHEAD PCPN FREE.

THE PCPN IS ALL LIQUID IN THE EVENING BEFORE BECOMING A RAIN/SNOW
MIX OVERNIGHT. THE DRY AIR FROM THE HUDSON BASED HIGH WILL ATTEMPT
TO KEEP THE PCPN FROM MOVING TOO FAR EWD TOO QUICKLY AND HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. WITH THE PCPN BEING A RAIN/SNOW MIX HAVE
REMOVED THE SNOW ACCUMULATION. THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE
ARROWHEAD WHERE ENOUGH COLD AIR RESULTS IN A SNOW MENTION.
HOWEVER...AMOUNTS WILL BE NEGLIGIBLE AS THE DRY AIR WARRANTS KEEPING
THE POPS LOW. OTHERWISE...THE PCPN FINALLY REACHES THE REST OF THE
FA. AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AS MODELS HAVE COME IN WITH LOWER AMOUNTS
THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE VICISSITUDES OF SPRING ARE UPON US ONCE AGAIN IN THE NORTHLAND.
AS SO ELOQUENTLY STATED IN YESTERDAYS DISCUSSION SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE
THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY DIFFICULT AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. IF TODAYS NWP
IS MAINTAINING CONTINUITY WE WILL MOST LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDER
HOISTING A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD OF MN FOR LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MAJORITY OF MDLS TAKE THE INITIAL MID LVL LOW
OVER SRN ALBERTA AND AMPLIFY THE PARENT WAVE AS IT ELONGATES AND
REDEVELOPS SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE THUR NIGHT. THIS WOULD
PLACE A COMBINATION OF STRONG OMEGA AND FROZEN PTYPE PROFILES OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. ALTHOUGH RAIN AND SNOW MIXTURE MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE RANGE AND INTO THE TWIN PORTS THE PROGRESSION OF THE 85/70H LOWS
OVER THE SRN ARROWHEAD WOULD TEND TO LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIG
ACCUMULATION. HOWEVER CAUTION MUST BE ADVISED AS A MORE SOUTHERN
SOUTH TRACK OF THE SALIENT MID LVL FEATURES COULD BRING COLDER
THERMAL PROFILES AND HIGHER PROB OF MORE SNOW. LATEST WPC
PROBABILISTIC SNOWFALL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2
INCHES WOULD BE FAVORED NORTH OF THE TWIN PORTS...WITH A FAIRLY
SIGNIFICANT GRADIENT IN AMOUNTS FROM DULUTH TO GRAND MARAIS.
INITIAL GUESSTIMATE IS THAT A SIG SNOWFALL IS MOST LIKELY EAST OF AN
ELY TO SILVER BAY LINE. LINGERING PRECIP IS LIKELY NEAR THE LAKE
INTO FRIDAY EVENING BEFORE DRYING OCCURS.A DRY SPELL SEEMS TO BE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS A LARGE SFC HIGH TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER NRN
ONTARIO...AND BUILDS SOUTHWARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL
THEN BE FOCUSED ON THE SRN PLAINS AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM ORGANIZES
AND MOVES TOWARDS ILLINOIS. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE TRACK WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE ACTIVE WEATHER SOUTH OF THE CWA. LOW POPS ARE
INCLUDED OVER THE SRN THIRD OF THE CWA TUESDAY HOWEVER THE
CONFIDENCE IS LOW. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION AND SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WE JUST HAVE RAIN IN THE TAFS...BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS NORTHERN TAF SITES COULD SEE A MIX. WE THINK THE MIX
WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFTER 06Z THOUGH. CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR OR EVEN IFR LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  33  38  32 /  30 100  90  60
INL  56  36  41  32 /  20 100  90  70
BRD  47  39  47  35 /  80 100  80  20
HYR  53  36  45  34 /  30 100  90  60
ASX  48  34  42  33 /  20  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...MELDE/CANNON








000
FXUS63 KDLH 230522 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1222 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
TONIGHT, AND FOR ALL OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA. AS FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA, THERE WILL BE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
TONIGHT...HOWEVER I AM NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS POINT. THE LOCAL
WRF...NAM...AND RAP MODELS ARE SUGGESTING IT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS IS SOMETHING THE EVENING SHIFT CAN LOOK MORE INTO WHEN MORE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA IS AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TO NORTHERN MONTANA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE IN THE PLAINS...AND BEGIN TO BRING
INCREASING SE FLOW AND MOISTURE TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW
LEVEL SE FLOW WILL BEGIN FAIRLY DRY...SO IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE BEFORE THE NORTHLAND SEES ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS AT
BRINGING IN THE PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SO I LEANED MORE ON
THE SREF/NAM/GEM/ECMWF. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE BIG CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE
ARE SOME DISTINCT MODEL DIFFERENCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS
THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO PHASE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO ONE MAIN
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UK/EC AND EVEN THE NAM
GENERALLY MAINTAIN TWO DISCRETE LOW AREAS...WITH THE GFS AND GEM
COMPLETELY PHASING THE DUAL LOW ENERGY INTO ONE LOW. THE IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NOT SO DRAMATIC...AS ALL OF THE MODELS SUPPORT
FAIRLY HIGH TOTAL QPF. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES AND OF COURSE IN WINDS. OVERALL...WILL BE A LITTLE
CAREFUL ABOUT COMPLETELY PHASING THE TWO SURFACE LOWS...AND
FAVORING A SOLUTION A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. OF PERHAPS
THE MOST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA IS THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. MODEL RUN SNOW ACCUMULATION VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH FOR
NORTHEASTERN MN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHERE
ALL OF THE MODELS BASICALLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 6
INCHES OF SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH HPC AND THE WINTER WEATHER
DESK...THINK THERE IS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE
ARROWHEAD DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL PROFILES OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE PHASING
OF THE TWO LOW STRUCTURE AND QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING. SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL PROFILES
COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. AT THIS POINT...NOT
COMFORTABLE ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD...BUT IT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH VERY CLOSELY AND MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED A WATCH. FURTHER SOUTH...SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A SLUSH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES.
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH FROM EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO OUR SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
NO MATTER WHAT...IT WILL BE A WET AND POTENTIALLY SNOWY END TO THE
WEEK FOR THE CWA. IT SHOULD THEN BE QUIET AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE
WEEKEND. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY NOT TOTALLY GET ITS ACT TOGETHER TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. THAT MAY CHANGE AS IT IS QUITE A WAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014


EXPECT HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH
CEILINGS LOWERING THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL IMPACT THE REGION AND SPREAD AN AREA OF RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AT THIS TIME...WE JUST HAVE RAIN IN THE TAFS...BUT THERE ARE
INDICATIONS NORTHERN TAF SITES COULD SEE A MIX. WE THINK THE MIX
WILL OCCUR MAINLY AFTER 06Z THOUGH. CEILINGS/VSBYS WILL LOWER TO
MVFR OR EVEN IFR LATE IN THE PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  43  32  43 /  80  90  60  40
INL  36  45  32  42 /  80  90  70  40
BRD  41  52  35  49 /  90  70  40  30
HYR  38  50  35  49 /  90  90  50  40
ASX  36  47  34  44 /  80  90  70  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE/CANNON








000
FXUS63 KDLH 230010
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
710 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
TONIGHT, AND FOR ALL OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA. AS FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA, THERE WILL BE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
TONIGHT...HOWEVER I AM NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS POINT. THE LOCAL
WRF...NAM...AND RAP MODELS ARE SUGGESTING IT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS IS SOMETHING THE EVENING SHIFT CAN LOOK MORE INTO WHEN IT
MORE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA IS AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TO NORTHERN MONTANA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE IN THE PLAINS...AND BEGINNING TO BRING
INCREASING SE FLOW AND MOISTURE TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW
LEVEL SE FLOW WILL BEGIN FAIRLY DRY...SO IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE BEFORE THE NORTHLAND SEES ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS AT
BRINGING IN THE PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SO I LEANED MORE ON
THE SREF/NAM/GEM/ECMWF. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE BIG CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE
ARE SOME DISTINCT MODEL DIFFERENCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS
THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO PHASE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO ONE MAIN
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UK/EC AND EVEN THE NAM
GENERALLY MAINTAIN TWO DISCRETE LOW AREAS...WITH THE GFS AND GEM
COMPLETELY PHASING THE DUAL LOW ENERGY INTO ONE LOW. THE IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NOT SO DRAMATIC...AS ALL OF THE MODELS SUPPORT
FAIRLY HIGH TOTAL QPF. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES AND OF COURSE IN WINDS. OVERALL...WILL BE A LITTLE
CAREFUL ABOUT COMPLETELY PHASING THE TWO SURFACE LOWS...AND
FAVORING A SOLUTION A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. OF PERHAPS
THE MOST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA IS THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. MODEL RUN SNOW ACCUMULATION VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH FOR
NORTHEASTERN MN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHERE
ALL OF THE MODELS BASICALLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 6
INCHES OF SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH HPC AND THE WINTER WEATHER
DESK...THINK THERE IS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE
ARROWHEAD DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL PROFILES OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE PHASING
OF THE TWO LOW STRUCTURE AND QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING. SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL PROFILES
COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. AT THIS POINT...NOT
COMFORTABLE ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD...BUT IT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH VERY CLOSELY AND MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED A WATCH. FURTHER SOUTH...SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A SLUSH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES.
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH FROM EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO OUR SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
NO MATTER WHAT...IT WILL BE WET AND POTENTIALLY SNOWY END TO THE
WEEK FOR THE CWA. IT SHOULD THEN BE QUIET AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE
WEEKEND. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY NOT TOTALLY GET ITS ACT TOGETHER TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. THAT MAY CHANGE AS IT IS QUITE A WAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 710 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AND BRING WITH IT THICKENING MID-HIGH CLOUDS LATER
TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL LOWER FURTHER WEDNESDAY
WITH AN AREA OF RAIN MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP AROUND KBRD IN THE AFTERNOON AS A STEADY RAIN
DEVELOPS THERE. MOST OTHER AREAS WILL SEE THE PRECIPITATION HOLD
OFF UNTIL WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  45  34  43 /   0  20  80  90
INL  30  54  36  45 /   0  10  80  90
BRD  38  49  41  52 /  10  70  90  70
HYR  28  53  38  50 /   0  50  90  90
ASX  27  48  36  47 /   0  10  80  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 222025
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED FOR AT LEAST
TONIGHT, AND FOR ALL OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN FORECAST
AREA. AS FOR THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA, THERE WILL BE INCREASING
HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE WEST AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS IN THE
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROMOTE
RADIATIONAL COOLING. LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA TO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
TONIGHT...HOWEVER I AM NOT CONFIDENT AT THIS POINT. THE LOCAL
WRF...NAM...AND RAP MODELS ARE SUGGESTING IT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS IS SOMETHING THE EVENING SHIFT CAN LOOK MORE INTO WHEN IT
MORE HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL DATA IS AVAILABLE.

WEDNESDAY...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL MOVE EAST FROM THE
PACIFIC NW TO NORTHERN MONTANA. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE IN THE PLAINS...AND BEGINNING TO BRING
INCREASING SE FLOW AND MOISTURE TO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE LOW
LEVEL SE FLOW WILL BEGIN FAIRLY DRY...SO IT WILL LIKELY TAKE SOME
TIME FOR THE LOW LEVELS TO SATURATE BEFORE THE NORTHLAND SEES ANY
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN OTHER MODELS AT
BRINGING IN THE PCPN INTO THE FORECAST AREA...SO I LEANED MORE ON
THE SREF/NAM/GEM/ECMWF. THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND COMPARED TO TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

THE BIG CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE MAJOR STORM SYSTEM THAT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE
ARE SOME DISTINCT MODEL DIFFERENCES DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...AS
THE MODELS ATTEMPT TO PHASE TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS INTO ONE MAIN
LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. THE UK/EC AND EVEN THE NAM
GENERALLY MAINTAIN TWO DISCRETE LOW AREAS...WITH THE GFS AND GEM
COMPLETELY PHASING THE DUAL LOW ENERGY INTO ONE LOW. THE IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER IS NOT SO DRAMATIC...AS ALL OF THE MODELS SUPPORT
FAIRLY HIGH TOTAL QPF. BUT THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN THE THERMAL
PROFILES AND OF COURSE IN WINDS. OVERALL...WILL BE A LITTLE
CAREFUL ABOUT COMPLETELY PHASING THE TWO SURFACE LOWS...AND
FAVORING A SOLUTION A BIT MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF. OF PERHAPS
THE MOST CONCERN FOR OUR AREA IS THE CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL. MODEL RUN SNOW ACCUMULATION VALUES ARE FAIRLY HIGH FOR
NORTHEASTERN MN...ESPECIALLY OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHERE
ALL OF THE MODELS BASICALLY SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE THAN 6
INCHES OF SNOW. AFTER COORDINATING WITH HPC AND THE WINTER WEATHER
DESK...THINK THERE IS TIME TO HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE
ARROWHEAD DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THERMAL PROFILES OF FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...DIFFERENCES IN HOW THE MODELS ARE HANDLING THE PHASING
OF THE TWO LOW STRUCTURE AND QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR
SIGNIFICANT MELTING. SPRING SYSTEMS LIKE THIS ARE NOTORIOUSLY
DIFFICULT THIS FAR OUT...AS SUBTLE CHANGES IN THE THERMAL PROFILES
COULD YIELD DRAMATICALLY DIFFERENT OUTCOMES. AT THIS POINT...NOT
COMFORTABLE ISSUING A WATCH FOR THE ARROWHEAD...BUT IT IS
SOMETHING WE WILL NEED TO WATCH VERY CLOSELY AND MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED A WATCH. FURTHER SOUTH...SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE...THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION...BUT IT SHOULD
GENERALLY BE A SLUSH ACCUMULATION OF MAYBE UP TO A COUPLE INCHES.
EVEN FURTHER SOUTH FROM EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO OUR SOUTHERN
TIER OF COUNTIES...THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.
NO MATTER WHAT...IT WILL BE WET AND POTENTIALLY SNOWY END TO THE
WEEK FOR THE CWA. IT SHOULD THEN BE QUIET AND MAINLY DRY FOR THE
WEEKEND. WILL ALSO NEED TO WATCH THE SYSTEM FOR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...AND EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK...BUT FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE IT
MAY NOT TOTALLY GET ITS ACT TOGETHER TO HAVE A MAJOR IMPACT ON OUR
WEATHER. THAT MAY CHANGE AS IT IS QUITE A WAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TYPE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND TODAY
AND HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME MID CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. SOME RAIN MAY MAKE IT TO KBRD BUT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  45  34  43 /   0  20  80  90
INL  30  54  36  45 /   0  10  80  90
BRD  38  49  41  52 /  10  70  90  70
HYR  28  53  38  50 /   0  50  90  90
ASX  27  48  36  47 /   0  10  80  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 221813
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
113 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION
AROUND THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US DEFINED BY A DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO REGION AND A BUILDING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK EMBEDDED S/W TRACKING SEWD FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO
THAT COULD CLIP EXTREME NE MN AND NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW FLURRIES. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE TWO DISTURBANCES
WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER FROM AROUND CRANE LAKE TO TWO
HARBORS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FORCE OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TODAY AND MOST OF
TONIGHT.

AT THE SFC...AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE SUNNY TODAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
W/SW THIS EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND SRN/SWRN MN TONIGHT AND LIFT TO THE
NORTH BY EARLY WED MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER 12Z WED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE ARROWHEAD AND AROUND THE IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS ON THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY STORM...AS
A STRONG BUT SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  IN GENERAL HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS SOLUTION OF THE
MODELS...WITH GENERALLY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.  A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA BORDER AREA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WHICH SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE THAT HAS SET UP FROM THERE TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPS FROM NEAR THE LOW TO EXTEND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MINNESOTA...AT FIRST JUST AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. INSTABILITY WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT THUNDER TO MAINLY ISOLATED TO CHANCE CATEGORY...EVEN AS
RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OR CATEGORY ACROSS THE AREA.  AN ADDITIONAL
COMPLICATION IS THE WARM LAYER ALOFT DOES NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING
BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED FOR THE BORDERLAND...EVEN
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WARM ON
THURSDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON AND OFF DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.  THURSDAY NIGHT
THE 850MB LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING COLD AIR TO
MOVE IN ALOFT...AND BEGINNING A SHIFT BACK TO MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND EVEN SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING FOR ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME RANGE...SO EXPECT SOME BACK AND FORTH ON
THE PRECIPITATION TYPES.  SINCE WE ARE STILL A COUPLE DAYS OUT ON
THIS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ON SPECIFICS...BUT IT
DOES CERTAINLY LOOK LIKE A MIXTURE OF COLD RAIN AND WET SLOPPY
SNOW.  HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
NOW...BUT SMALL CHANGES IN THIS COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
PTYPE AT THIS TIME.

NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE DRY AND COOL AS A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.  HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 110 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE TAF SITES THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD. SOME SCATTERED CUMULUS TYPE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND TODAY AND
HIGH CLOUDS AND SOME MID CLOUDS WILL ADVANCE INTO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAJOR LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO
MOVE INTO THE AREA. SOME RAIN MAY MAKE IT TO KBRD BUT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS IT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  45  34  43 /   0  30  80  70
INL  31  54  36  45 /   0  10  70  70
BRD  39  50  41  52 /  10  70  70  60
HYR  31  53  38  50 /   0  30  80  80
ASX  28  49  36  47 /   0  10  70  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 221148
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
648 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION
AROUND THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US DEFINED BY A DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO REGION AND A BUILDING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK EMBEDDED S/W TRACKING SEWD FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO
THAT COULD CLIP EXTREME NE MN AND NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW FLURRIES. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE TWO DISTURBANCES
WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER FROM AROUND CRANE LAKE TO TWO
HARBORS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FORCE OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TODAY AND MOST OF
TONIGHT.

AT THE SFC...AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE SUNNY TODAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
W/SW THIS EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND SRN/SWRN MN TONIGHT AND LIFT TO THE
NORTH BY EARLY WED MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER 12Z WED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE ARROWHEAD AND AROUND THE IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS ON THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY STORM...AS
A STRONG BUT SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  IN GENERAL HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS SOLUTION OF THE
MODELS...WITH GENERALLY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.  A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA BORDER AREA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WHICH SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE THAT HAS SET UP FROM THERE TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPS FROM NEAR THE LOW TO EXTEND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MINNESOTA...AT FIRST JUST AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. INSTABILITY WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT THUNDER TO MAINLY ISOLATED TO CHANCE CATEGORY...EVEN AS
RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OR CATEGORY ACROSS THE AREA.  AN ADDITIONAL
COMPLICATION IS THE WARM LAYER ALOFT DOES NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING
BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED FOR THE BORDERLAND...EVEN
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WARM ON
THURSDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON AND OFF DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.  THURSDAY NIGHT
THE 850MB LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING COLD AIR TO
MOVE IN ALOFT...AND BEGINNING A SHIFT BACK TO MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND EVEN SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING FOR ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME RANGE...SO EXPECT SOME BACK AND FORTH ON
THE PRECIPITATION TYPES.  SINCE WE ARE STILL A COUPLE DAYS OUT ON
THIS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ON SPECIFICS...BUT IT
DOES CERTAINLY LOOK LIKE A MIXTURE OF COLD RAIN AND WET SLOPPY
SNOW.  HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
NOW...BUT SMALL CHANGES IN THIS COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
PTYPE AT THIS TIME.

NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE DRY AND COOL AS A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.  HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 646 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

CEILINGS FROM 3500-4500 FEET COVERED AREAS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
KCDD TO KHYR EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS CLOUD SHOULD CONTINUE A
DIMINISHING TREND...ESPECIALLY AFTER 15Z...AND SHOULD BE AWAY FROM
THE TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING. ANOTHER AREA OF VFR STRATUS OVER NW
MN THIS MORNING SHOULD DRIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TERMINALS...BUT
DISSIPATE BEFORE IT AFFECTS ANY TERMINALS. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS
EARLY THIS MORNING TO GRADUALLY TURN SOUTHEAST BY LATE
EVENING...AND SHOULD REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  33  45  34 /   0   0  30  80
INL  53  31  54  36 /   0   0  10  70
BRD  59  39  50  41 /   0  10  70  70
HYR  54  31  53  38 /   0   0  30  80
ASX  47  28  49  36 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE












000
FXUS63 KDLH 220911
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
411 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH THE MAIN FOCUS OF ATTENTION
AROUND THE CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD AND PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL WI THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND TONIGHT.

MAIN SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL US DEFINED BY A DEPARTING
UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NRN GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO REGION AND A BUILDING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT OVER THE NRN PLAINS. THERE IS ALSO A
WEAK EMBEDDED S/W TRACKING SEWD FROM NRN MANITOBA INTO WRN ONTARIO
THAT COULD CLIP EXTREME NE MN AND NRN LAKE SUPERIOR THIS MORNING
WITH A FEW FLURRIES. THE MAIN IMPACTS FROM THESE TWO DISTURBANCES
WILL BE THE PRESENCE OF CLOUD COVER FROM AROUND CRANE LAKE TO TWO
HARBORS THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...THE BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FORCE OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH TODAY AND MOST OF
TONIGHT.

AT THE SFC...AN ELONGATED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE IN FROM THE WEST OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY. MOST OF THE AREA
WILL BE SUNNY TODAY BEFORE CLOUD COVER BEGINS TO MOVE IN FROM THE
W/SW THIS EVENING...AND ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL
DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND SRN/SWRN MN TONIGHT AND LIFT TO THE
NORTH BY EARLY WED MORNING. RAIN SHOWERS ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL
AFTER 12Z WED.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID TO UPPER 40S IN THE ARROWHEAD AND AROUND THE IMMEDIATE PERIPHERY
OF LAKE SUPERIOR...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONCE AGAIN FALL INTO THE UPPER 20S AND
30S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD IS ON THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY STORM...AS
A STRONG BUT SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST.  IN GENERAL HAVE BEEN FOLLOWING A CONSENSUS SOLUTION OF THE
MODELS...WITH GENERALLY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS.  A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS
OVER THE SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/ALBERTA BORDER AREA BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING WHICH SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHEAST ALONG THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC
ZONE THAT HAS SET UP FROM THERE TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS MINNESOTA.
DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION ZONE RAIN
SHOWERS DEVELOPS FROM NEAR THE LOW TO EXTEND ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA AND
INTO MINNESOTA...AT FIRST JUST AFFECTING THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BEFORE SPREADING NORTHEAST DURING THE
DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. INSTABILITY WORKS INTO THE AREA FROM THE
SOUTH WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE WARM FRONT PUSHES TOWARDS THE AREA.
HAVE KEPT THUNDER TO MAINLY ISOLATED TO CHANCE CATEGORY...EVEN AS
RAIN BECOMES LIKELY OR CATEGORY ACROSS THE AREA.  AN ADDITIONAL
COMPLICATION IS THE WARM LAYER ALOFT DOES NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING
BEFORE PRECIPITATION MOVES IN LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR RAIN AND SNOW MIXED FOR THE BORDERLAND...EVEN
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.  THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO WARM ON
THURSDAY AND MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD HAVE SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ON AND OFF DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.  THURSDAY NIGHT
THE 850MB LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING COLD AIR TO
MOVE IN ALOFT...AND BEGINNING A SHIFT BACK TO MIXED PRECIPITATION
AND EVEN SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR FREEZING FOR ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA FOR MUCH OF THIS TIME RANGE...SO EXPECT SOME BACK AND FORTH ON
THE PRECIPITATION TYPES.  SINCE WE ARE STILL A COUPLE DAYS OUT ON
THIS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT ESPECIALLY HIGH ON SPECIFICS...BUT IT
DOES CERTAINLY LOOK LIKE A MIXTURE OF COLD RAIN AND WET SLOPPY
SNOW.  HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR
NOW...BUT SMALL CHANGES IN THIS COULD CAUSE ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO
PTYPE AT THIS TIME.

NEXT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK TO BE DRY AND COOL AS A STRONG SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE STORM SYSTEM.  HIGHS SHOULD BE
IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN THE 20S.  ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD STAY WELL
SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

CEILINGS FROM 3500-4500 FEET COVERED AREAS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
KINL TO KPBH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS CLOUD SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY LINGER LONGER OVER THE ARROWHEAD/IRON RANGE PER
THE LATEST RAP. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AID IN CAUSING THE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH AND WILL ALSO ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH FURTHER. NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT WILL VEER TO MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST
BY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  33  45  34 /   0   0  30  80
INL  53  31  54  36 /   0   0  10  70
BRD  59  39  50  41 /   0  10  70  70
HYR  54  31  53  38 /   0   0  30  80
ASX  47  28  49  36 /   0   0  10  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DTM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 220538
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1238 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND SKIES CLEAR. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH EARLIER. LATEST
DLH OBS HAS A 27 KNOT WIND GUST. THE DLH 88D VWP STILL SHOWING
30KTS AT 2K FT...BUT ATMOS SHOULD DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...AND
DECREASE THE WINDS. VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR CLOUDS. COOLER AIR MASS WILL GIVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ADVANCING INTO THE
NORTHLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY A MAJOR TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY..AS A MAIN
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO THEN SWING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE A
VARIETY OF THERMAL PROFILES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME WILL GO WITH A MIX IN THE NORTH AND MAINLY SNOW IN THE
ARROWHEAD. STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO COME UP WITH A SNOWFALL FORECAST
BUT COULD BE A SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...
AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE IF THINGS ARE A BIT COOLER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND AS A
POSSIBLE OMEGA BLOCK FORMS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

CEILINGS FROM 3500-4500 FEET COVERED AREAS NORTHEAST OF A LINE FROM
KINL TO KPBH LATE THIS EVENING. THIS CLOUD SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY LINGER LONGER OVER THE ARROWHEAD/IRON RANGE PER
THE LATEST RAP. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL AID IN CAUSING THE CLOUDS TO
DIMINISH AND WILL ALSO ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH FURTHER. NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY...BUT WILL VEER TO MORE EAST TO NORTHEAST
BY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  47  35  44 /   0  70  80  80
INL  32  54  37  44 /   0  40  70  80
BRD  38  53  42  52 /  10  70  70  70
HYR  31  55  38  51 /   0  60  80  80
ASX  29  51  37  46 /   0  50  70  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DTM









000
FXUS63 KDLH 212336
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
636 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND SKIES CLEAR. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH EARLIER. LATEST
DLH OBS HAS A 27 KNOT WIND GUST. THE DLH 88D VWP STILL SHOWING
30KTS AT 2K FT...BUT ATMOS SHOULD DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...AND
DECREASE THE WINDS. VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR CLOUDS. COOLER AIR MASS WILL GIVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ADVANCING INTO THE
NORTHLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY A MAJOR TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY..AS A MAIN
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO THEN SWING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE A
VARIETY OF THERMAL PROFILES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME WILL GO WITH A MIX IN THE NORTH AND MAINLY SNOW IN THE
ARROWHEAD. STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO COME UP WITH A SNOWFALL FORECAST
BUT COULD BE A SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...
AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE IF THINGS ARE A BIT COOLER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND AS A
POSSIBLE OMEGA BLOCK FORMS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 636 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
CEILINGS FROM 2500-4500 FEET OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL SLOWLY
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...LASTING LONGEST AT KHIB. THESE CEILINGS ARE
NOT ENTIRELY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...AND WE MAY SEE BASES DIMINISH
TOWARD MVFR IN SPOTS AS WELL. THE RAP KEEPS CEILINGS OVER THE
ARROWHEAD/IRON RANGE INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WE EVENTUALLY DO BRING
SCATTERED CEILINGS TO ALL TAF SITES TONIGHT...BUT WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR SATELLITE TRENDS AND ADJUST AS NEEDED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  53  32  47 /   0   0   0  70
INL  31  54  32  54 /  10   0   0  40
BRD  33  58  38  53 /   0   0  10  70
HYR  32  54  31  55 /   0   0   0  60
ASX  32  50  29  51 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 212038 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
338 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING.
WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND SKIES CLEAR. WINDS HAVE BEEN GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON BEHIND THE COLD FRONT THAT WENT THROUGH EARLIER. LATEST
DLH OBS HAS A 27 KNOT WIND GUST. THE DLH 88D VWP STILL SHOWING
30KTS AT 2K FT...BUT ATMOS SHOULD DECOUPLE THIS EVENING...AND
DECREASE THE WINDS. VERY DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY SO
NOT EXPECTING MUCH FOR CLOUDS. COOLER AIR MASS WILL GIVE SEASONAL
TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL
TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT CLOUDS WILL ALREADY BE ADVANCING INTO THE
NORTHLAND AHEAD OF THE NEXT MAJOR SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE REGION FOR
MUCH OF THE LATTER PART OF THE WORK WEEK. A SHARP UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL BE QUICKLY REPLACED BY A MAJOR TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES
ON WEDNESDAY. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY..AS A MAIN
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL MINNESOTA BY THURSDAY EVENING. THE
SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO THEN SWING SLOWLY OFF TO THE EAST THROUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY. THERE COULD BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AS WELL AS SOME LIMITED
INSTABILITY PUSHES NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA. THE MODELS HAVE A
VARIETY OF THERMAL PROFILES FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME WILL GO WITH A MIX IN THE NORTH AND MAINLY SNOW IN THE
ARROWHEAD. STILL A BIT TOO EARLY TO COME UP WITH A SNOWFALL FORECAST
BUT COULD BE A SLUSHY COUPLE INCHES IN SPOTS...ESPECIALLY NORTH...
AND POSSIBLY A BIT MORE IF THINGS ARE A BIT COOLER. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A FAIRLY QUIET WEEKEND AS A
POSSIBLE OMEGA BLOCK FORMS DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT CONDITIONS
WILL LARGELY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE DAY WEARS ON. VFR CONDITIONS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LOCAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
FOR TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS TO BE QUITE
LOCAL AND THINK THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  53  32  47 /   0   0   0  70
INL  31  54  32  54 /  10   0   0  40
BRD  33  58  38  53 /   0   0  10  70
HYR  32  54  31  55 /   0   0   0  60
ASX  32  50  29  51 /   0   0   0  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 211744
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1020 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO SKY COVER FOR TODAY....LAYER OF
STRATO-CU MAKING ITS WAY ESEWRD ACROSS NRN MN. CURRENT FROM KCOD
THRU KXVG. AS PREDICTED IT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING...BUT DID
BRING MORE CLOUDS IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH.

COLD FRONT MOVING OVR NRN WI AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS MORNING WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY ROM ASHLAND TO
PHILLIPS.

WINDS TURNING GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE REPORTED GUSTS OF 25
KTS AT GPZ AND COQ ALREADY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY OVER THE
SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH WEAK
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND PATCHY FOG OVER NW WI THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BE A
CHALLENGE WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES INTO THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS A
TWO-PRONGED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PHASES INTO ONE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. AN UPPER S/W OVER THE NRN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST TODAY AND MERGE WITH A
BROADER UPPER WAVE AND SFC INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE WAVE
TO THE NORTH IS SLIGHTLY MORE DYNAMIC AND HAS SHOWN EVIDENCE OF A
WELL-DEFINED SFC FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE IS REMAINING CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...AND THE FRONT IS
MOVING INTO A VERY DRY AIR MASS. SO...RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL BE WEAK AND PRODUCE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMTS.

THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE ENTIRE FEATURE PROGRESSES EWD. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED WEAK
STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE SRN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE
MILLE LACS TO SPOONER TO PARK FALLS. CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS COULD
EXTEND NWD TO AROUND THE TWIN PORTS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE SHORT-LIVED.

PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED THIS MORNING...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF PRICE COUNTY. LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY SATURATED SFC
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL WI WILL LEAD TO SOME
EXPANSION OF THE FOG THIS MORNING...WITH VSBYS DOWN TO LESS THAN A
MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER WARM BUBBLE OF AIR WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHLAND
TODAY...BUT BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ONCE AGAIN FROM BRAINERD TO
DULUTH TO PHILLIPS. AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME
CLIMBING ABOVE THE LOWER 50S AS THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE NW. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS PEAK AROUND 1 OR
2 PM AND THEN DROP OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FULL EFFECTS FROM
THE FRONT ARRIVE. WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE NRN PLAINS CREATING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN MN AND ROBUST MIXING DEVELOP.
EXPECT SUSTAINED NW WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS MN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...LEAVING
QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD BE WARMER...WITH SUNSHINE AND DRY
AIR...BUT MIXING IS LIKELY TO BE SHALLOW WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP
HIGHS DOWN SOMEWHAT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD START OUT WITH RAIN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA.  ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WE CAN GET SOME
WARMER AIR AND INSTABILITY IN HERE...WE SHOULD ALSO GET SOME
THUNDER...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTH.  THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...NOW WITH THE GFS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF.  FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THINGS FAIRLY GENERIC WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE EVENT ENDS.  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPES IS IMPROVING BUT
STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH DUE TO MODEL TEMPERATURE AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES MENTIONED ABOVE.  FOR NOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

NEXT WEEKEND TO BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

AREAS OF MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE AFTERNOON BUT CONDITIONS
WILL LARGELY IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE DAY WEARS ON. VFR CONDITIONS
AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME LOCAL FOG DEVELOPMENT
FOR TONIGHT...BUT WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW AS IT LOOKS TO BE QUITE
LOCAL AND THINK THE MODELS MAY BE OVERDOING IT A BIT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  32  52  33 /  10   0   0   0
INL  47  31  52  34 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  62  33  59  38 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  63  32  54  31 /  20   0   0   0
ASX  58  32  49  30 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 211526 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1026 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1020 AMCDT MON APR 21 2014

MADE SOME SLIGHT CHANGES TO SKY COVER FOR TODAY....LAYER OF
STRATO-CU MAKING ITS WAY ESEWRD ACROSS NRN MN. CURRENT FROM KCOD
THRU KXVG. AS PREDICTED IT IS SHOWING SIGNS OF THINNING...BUT DID
BRING MORE CLOUDS IN...ESPECIALLY IN THE FAR NORTH.

COLD FRONT MOVING OVR NRN WI AND VERY LIGHT SHOWERS STILL POSSIBLE
MAINLY THIS MORNING WITH THE FRONT...MAINLY ROM ASHLAND TO
PHILLIPS.

WINDS TURNING GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT. HAVE REPORTED GUSTS OF 25
KTS AT GPZ AND COQ ALREADY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY OVER THE
SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH WEAK
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND PATCHY FOG OVER NW WI THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BE A
CHALLENGE WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES INTO THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS A
TWO-PRONGED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PHASES INTO ONE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. AN UPPER S/W OVER THE NRN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST TODAY AND MERGE WITH A
BROADER UPPER WAVE AND SFC INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE WAVE
TO THE NORTH IS SLIGHTLY MORE DYNAMIC AND HAS SHOWN EVIDENCE OF A
WELL-DEFINED SFC FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE IS REMAINING CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...AND THE FRONT IS
MOVING INTO A VERY DRY AIR MASS. SO...RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL BE WEAK AND PRODUCE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMTS.

THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE ENTIRE FEATURE PROGRESSES EWD. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED WEAK
STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE SRN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE
MILLE LACS TO SPOONER TO PARK FALLS. CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS COULD
EXTEND NWD TO AROUND THE TWIN PORTS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE SHORT-LIVED.

PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED THIS MORNING...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF PRICE COUNTY. LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY SATURATED SFC
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL WI WILL LEAD TO SOME
EXPANSION OF THE FOG THIS MORNING...WITH VSBYS DOWN TO LESS THAN A
MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER WARM BUBBLE OF AIR WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHLAND
TODAY...BUT BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ONCE AGAIN FROM BRAINERD TO
DULUTH TO PHILLIPS. AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME
CLIMBING ABOVE THE LOWER 50S AS THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE NW. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS PEAK AROUND 1 OR
2 PM AND THEN DROP OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FULL EFFECTS FROM
THE FRONT ARRIVE. WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE NRN PLAINS CREATING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN MN AND ROBUST MIXING DEVELOP.
EXPECT SUSTAINED NW WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS MN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...LEAVING
QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD BE WARMER...WITH SUNSHINE AND DRY
AIR...BUT MIXING IS LIKELY TO BE SHALLOW WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP
HIGHS DOWN SOMEWHAT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD START OUT WITH RAIN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA.  ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WE CAN GET SOME
WARMER AIR AND INSTABILITY IN HERE...WE SHOULD ALSO GET SOME
THUNDER...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTH.  THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...NOW WITH THE GFS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF.  FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THINGS FAIRLY GENERIC WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE EVENT ENDS.  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPES IS IMPROVING BUT
STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH DUE TO MODEL TEMPERATURE AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES MENTIONED ABOVE.  FOR NOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

NEXT WEEKEND TO BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

STRATUS CURRENTLY AFFECTING KDLH AND KHYR EXPECTED TO BE SWEPT OFF
TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WHERE THEY DO OCCUR. AN AREA OF STRATUS IS
TRAILING BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AND IS DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ALBERTA. IT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS BEFORE LIFTING INTO
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS LAYER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT IN BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO KINL AND KHIB...BUT
EXPECT THE CIGS WILL HAVE LIFTED BY THE TIME IT GETS TO THE
REMAINING SITES. THIS CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...THOUGH
MAY LINGER FOR LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KINL AND KHIB.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  32  52  33 /  10   0   0   0
INL  47  31  52  34 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  62  33  59  38 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  63  32  54  31 /  20   0   0   0
ASX  58  32  49  30 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 211151
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
651 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY OVER THE
SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH WEAK
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND PATCHY FOG OVER NW WI THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BE A
CHALLENGE WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES INTO THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS A
TWO-PRONGED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PHASES INTO ONE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. AN UPPER S/W OVER THE NRN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST TODAY AND MERGE WITH A
BROADER UPPER WAVE AND SFC INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE WAVE
TO THE NORTH IS SLIGHTLY MORE DYNAMIC AND HAS SHOWN EVIDENCE OF A
WELL-DEFINED SFC FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE IS REMAINING CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...AND THE FRONT IS
MOVING INTO A VERY DRY AIR MASS. SO...RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL BE WEAK AND PRODUCE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMTS.

THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE ENTIRE FEATURE PROGRESSES EWD. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED WEAK
STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE SRN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE
MILLE LACS TO SPOONER TO PARK FALLS. CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS COULD
EXTEND NWD TO AROUND THE TWIN PORTS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE SHORT-LIVED.

PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED THIS MORNING...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF PRICE COUNTY. LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY SATURATED SFC
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL WI WILL LEAD TO SOME
EXPANSION OF THE FOG THIS MORNING...WITH VSBYS DOWN TO LESS THAN A
MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER WARM BUBBLE OF AIR WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHLAND
TODAY...BUT BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ONCE AGAIN FROM BRAINERD TO
DULUTH TO PHILLIPS. AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME
CLIMBING ABOVE THE LOWER 50S AS THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE NW. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS PEAK AROUND 1 OR
2 PM AND THEN DROP OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FULL EFFECTS FROM
THE FRONT ARRIVE. WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE NRN PLAINS CREATING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN MN AND ROBUST MIXING DEVELOP.
EXPECT SUSTAINED NW WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS MN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...LEAVING
QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD BE WARMER...WITH SUNSHINE AND DRY
AIR...BUT MIXING IS LIKELY TO BE SHALLOW WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP
HIGHS DOWN SOMEWHAT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD START OUT WITH RAIN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA.  ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WE CAN GET SOME
WARMER AIR AND INSTABILITY IN HERE...WE SHOULD ALSO GET SOME
THUNDER...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTH.  THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...NOW WITH THE GFS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF.  FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THINGS FAIRLY GENERIC WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE EVENT ENDS.  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPES IS IMPROVING BUT
STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH DUE TO MODEL TEMPERATURE AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES MENTIONED ABOVE.  FOR NOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

NEXT WEEKEND TO BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

STRATUS CURRENTLY AFFECTING KDLH AND KHYR EXPECTED TO BE SWEPT OFF
TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
SOME LIGHT SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS COLD FRONT...BUT CONDITIONS
SHOULD REMAIN VFR WHERE THEY DO OCCUR. AN AREA OF STRATUS IS
TRAILING BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT AND IS DRAPED ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND ALBERTA. IT IS
EXPECTED TO SWEEP EAST TO AFFECT THE TERMINALS BEFORE LIFTING INTO
A SCATTERED TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS LAYER FOR THE REST OF THE DAY.
FOR NOW HAVE BROUGHT IN BROKEN MVFR CIGS TO KINL AND KHIB...BUT
EXPECT THE CIGS WILL HAVE LIFTED BY THE TIME IT GETS TO THE
REMAINING SITES. THIS CLOUD DECK EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY. THE CLOUDS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING...THOUGH
MAY LINGER FOR LONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AT KINL AND KHIB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  32  52  33 /  10   0   0   0
INL  47  31  52  34 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  62  33  59  38 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  63  32  54  31 /  20   0   0   0
ASX  58  32  49  30 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 210903
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY OVER THE
SRN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...ALONG WITH WEAK
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE NORTH AND PATCHY FOG OVER NW WI THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY NW WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL ALSO BE A
CHALLENGE WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY EXPECTED. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES FALL
TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY A FEW FLURRIES INTO THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC IS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS A
TWO-PRONGED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PHASES INTO ONE ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY. AN UPPER S/W OVER THE NRN PLAINS
EARLY THIS MORNING WILL TRACK TO THE EAST TODAY AND MERGE WITH A
BROADER UPPER WAVE AND SFC INVERTED TROUGH TO THE SOUTH. THE WAVE
TO THE NORTH IS SLIGHTLY MORE DYNAMIC AND HAS SHOWN EVIDENCE OF A
WELL-DEFINED SFC FRONT/WIND SHIFT LINE. HOWEVER...THE BULK OF THE
MOISTURE IS REMAINING CONFINED TO THE SOUTH...AND THE FRONT IS
MOVING INTO A VERY DRY AIR MASS. SO...RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH
WILL BE WEAK AND PRODUCE ONLY LIGHT PRECIP AMTS.

THE UPPER WAVE AND SFC TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE ENTIRE FEATURE PROGRESSES EWD. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COULD BE
PRESENT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW ISOLATED WEAK
STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF THUNDER WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE SRN
EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM LAKE
MILLE LACS TO SPOONER TO PARK FALLS. CONVECTIVE RAIN SHOWERS COULD
EXTEND NWD TO AROUND THE TWIN PORTS THIS MORNING...BUT WILL LIKELY
BE SHORT-LIVED.

PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN VERY ISOLATED THIS MORNING...MAINLY CONFINED TO
AREAS OF PRICE COUNTY. LIGHT WINDS AND NEARLY SATURATED SFC
CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF N-CENTRAL WI WILL LEAD TO SOME
EXPANSION OF THE FOG THIS MORNING...WITH VSBYS DOWN TO LESS THAN A
MILE IN SOME LOCATIONS.

ANOTHER WARM BUBBLE OF AIR WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHLAND
TODAY...BUT BE CONFINED TO AREAS SOUTH OF THE IRON RANGE.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE 60S ONCE AGAIN FROM BRAINERD TO
DULUTH TO PHILLIPS. AREAS TO THE NORTH WILL HAVE A HARDER TIME
CLIMBING ABOVE THE LOWER 50S AS THE COLD AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT
SLOWLY MOVES IN FROM THE NW. WILL LIKELY SEE TEMPS PEAK AROUND 1 OR
2 PM AND THEN DROP OFF FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE FULL EFFECTS FROM
THE FRONT ARRIVE. WINDS WILL ALSO STRENGTHEN TODAY WITH A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OVER THE NRN PLAINS CREATING A
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER NRN MN AND ROBUST MIXING DEVELOP.
EXPECT SUSTAINED NW WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS 25 TO 35 MPH
POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE ACROSS MN.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TONIGHT INTO THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S. A
FEW LINGERING LIGHT FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 403 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA...LEAVING
QUIET WEATHER WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S TO UPPER 50S.
THE SOUTHWESTERN COUNTIES COULD BE WARMER...WITH SUNSHINE AND DRY
AIR...BUT MIXING IS LIKELY TO BE SHALLOW WHICH WOULD ACT TO KEEP
HIGHS DOWN SOMEWHAT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD START OUT WITH RAIN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA.  ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH AND WE CAN GET SOME
WARMER AIR AND INSTABILITY IN HERE...WE SHOULD ALSO GET SOME
THUNDER...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH SOME FAIRLY
STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME WEAK LOW LEVEL CAPE ACROSS
THE SOUTH.  THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...NOW WITH THE GFS FASTER
THAN THE ECMWF.  FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THINGS FAIRLY GENERIC WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT
BEFORE THE EVENT ENDS.  CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP TYPES IS IMPROVING BUT
STILL NOT TERRIBLY HIGH DUE TO MODEL TEMPERATURE AND TIMING
DIFFERENCES MENTIONED ABOVE.  FOR NOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT.

NEXT WEEKEND TO BE DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND LOWS IN
THE 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT HAS ADVANCED EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE MINNESOTA TERMINALS BEFORE 12Z AND THROUGH HYR
MID-MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
HIB...INL...AND DLH AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. KEPT A MENTION OF
VCSH AT BRD AND HYR. CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL AFFECT HYR OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL. HOWEVER...SITES FARTHER SOUTH HAVE REPORTED CIGS AS LOW
AS 800 FT WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY ON
MONDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  32  52  33 /  30   0   0   0
INL  48  31  52  34 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  63  33  59  38 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  65  32  54  31 /  40   0   0   0
ASX  60  32  49  30 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...HUYCK








000
FXUS63 KDLH 210548
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1248 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

A LAKE BREEZE IS MOVING INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS MOMENT.
SFC WIND HAS SWITCHED TO NE FOR A BRIEF TIME..BUT THEN GONE LIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO NE ND WITH SOME CI AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IN ND...MID CLOUDS HAVE
FORMED. FAIRLY DRY BELOW 10K FT AND NO RAIN BEING REPORTED
UNDERNEATH INCREASING RADAR RETURNS IN NE ND. HAVE DIALED BACK ON
THE POPS TO JUST OVER A PORTION OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR/RAP/LOCAL WRF MODEL
RUNS. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 532 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS INDICATE THE RAIN WILL STAY WELL S
OF PRICE COUNTY WI AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION. MADE SOME OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN ELONGATED SFC RIDGE STRETCHES FROM CTRL MANITOBA ACROSS THE NRN
CWA AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED SUNNY SKIES TO
COVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SRN EDGE OF PRICE
COUNTY WHERE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN FRONTAL BDRY ARE MOVING
ENE.  AS OR EARLY AFTN TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOW 70S IN A FEW
SPOTS OTHERWISE 60S ARE MORE COMMON AT INLAND LOCATIONS WITH 50S AND
A FEW 40S CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

TONIGHT...A WESTERLY MID LVL FLOW WILL KEEP THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE PATTERN IN PLACE. TWO FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE OLD FRONTAL
BDRY LOCATED OVER SRN MN AND THE APPROACHING SFC/MID LVL LOW OVER
ND. SHOULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS
ND SYSTEM HEADS OUR WAY. THE FRONTAL BDRY SOUTH OF THE CWA WILL
PUSH NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE OVER SCTRL/SERN CWA. BR/FG IS POSSIBLE OVER SRN CWA IN
ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ND
WILL PUSH INTO THE NWRN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIP.

TOMORROW...VERY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SFC/MID LVL FEATURES SO EXPECT
ANY LIGHT PRECIP TO QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HRS. MAIN DISTINGUISHING WEATHER ELEMENT WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. TEMPERATURES MAY SHOW A NON
DIURNAL TREND BASED ON TIMING OF FRONT OVER MN ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY HOWEVER STILL ABOVE CLIMO IN
MOST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  NIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  IT WILL BE A REMAIN
DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE STORMS SYSTEM WILL START TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.  IT IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE MODELS SOMEWHAT
DIFFERENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW BUT BOTH SUGGEST PTYPE WILL BE
ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  THE GFS HAS THE CENTER
IN SOUTHERN MN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER IN WESTERN IOWA AT 12Z
THU.  THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE WI/UPPER MI BORDER ON
THE GFS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER AROUND EAU.  WILL USE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR THE SOLUTION.  AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...THE MODELS STILL INDICATES CAPE ALONG WITH SEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN CURRENT GRIDS.  COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE E.  THERE WILL
BE A CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH SLEET POSSIBLE.
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THIS TIME.   WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS..THE TIMING AND PTYPE COULD CHANGE IN THE COMING RUNS.
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT HAS ADVANCED EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE MINNESOTA TERMINALS BEFORE 12Z AND THROUGH HYR
MID-MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
HIB...INL...AND DLH AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. KEPT A MENTION OF
VCSH AT BRD AND HYR. CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL AFFECT HYR OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL. HOWEVER...SITES FARTHER SOUTH HAVE REPORTED CIGS AS LOW
AS 800 FT WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY ON
MONDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  50  32  47 /   0   0   0  40
INL  31  50  32  52 /  10   0  10  40
BRD  34  56  37  52 /   0   0  10  50
HYR  33  52  31  52 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  33  47  31  50 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...HUYCK








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