000
FXUS63 KDLH 182201 AAA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
501 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO ADD DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN TWIN PORTS AREA AND NORTH
SHORE WHERE VSBYS HAVE BEEN AT OR BELOW 1/2 MILE. COQ AND GNA HAVE
REPORTED ZERO AT TIMES. EXPECT THIS CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 424 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
LOW LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE I94 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE THE FOCUS AREA FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
BY LATE THIS EVENING AND 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL ENHANCE
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST LEVELS..AND ALSO RESULT IN
INCREASED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR MESOSCALE ASCENT. THE RESULT
IS EXPECTED TO BE REDEVELOPMENT OF RATHER WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVERNIGHT. INFLUX OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS /ALMOST 300% OF CLIMO NORMALS FOR MID MAY/ FURTHER
SUPPORTS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
THUS..WE HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CASS/CROW
WING/AITKIN COUNTIES WHERE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY FELL THIS
MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION
WHERE STORMS WILL REDEVELOP..SO THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED/EXPANDED ACCORDING TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS LATER THIS
EVENING.
LARGE SCALE TROF AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN
WHILE MOVING TOWARD MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY..WITH LITTLE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT. THUS..THERE SHOULD BE A CONTINUED FLUX
OF WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTORMS. ALSO..AS SFC LOW DEEPENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF LK SUPERIOR..EASTERLY GRADIENT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY GUSTY ENE WINDS INVOF LK SUPERIOR LATER
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL..WE WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON TEMPS..AS
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS/PRECIP AND EASTERLY FLOW FAVOR SMALLER
DIURNAL TEMP RANGE FOR SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SE
PORTION OF THE CWA..WHICH COULD GET INTO THE SFC WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 80S
/LOWER-MID 60S.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE VERY SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA AREA AT 00Z MONDAY. THEY ONLY THEN
MOVE IT SLOWLY EAST BY 00Z WED...PLACING THE LOW ANYWHERE FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...TO THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL. WHAT THESE MEANS FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND IS PLENTY OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
FROM 1.25 TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY FUEL FOR
RAIN.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOOKING LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS IS ON TOP OF RAIN THAT FELL LAST NIGHT/TODAY
AND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT/SUNDAY. ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY MORE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
TRAINING STORMS...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
WE`VE ALREADY SEEN A SHARP RISE IN THE RIVERS OVER FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE THREAT FOR SOME FLOODING IS INCREASING...BUT THE
EXTENT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT. THERE IS A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL
WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON
HOW THINGS DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
MOST AREAS DRY THURSDAY.
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WE BRING IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WEST NEXT SATURDAY...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WOULD SUGGEST
ANOTHER DRY DAY.
AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WAS UNDER IFR OR LOW MVFR CEILINGS WITH
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR
AS WELL WITH A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. WE EXPECT THE CURRENT RAIN TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MOIST FLOW
OVER A WARM FRONT WHICH REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL
BECOME A FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY. VARIOUS MODELS
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER REGION...THEN THEY
MOVE THE SHOWERS/STORMS EAST/NORTHEAST.
WE DID INCREASE VSBYS AT KDLH AROUND 21Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. WE FOLLOWED THE RAP...AS IT SHOWED MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DIMINISHING AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE SUN TO
WORK ON THE STRATUS AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BOOST VSBYS. WE THINK FOG
WILL COME BACK IN AGAIN THIS EVENING LOWER VSBYS AGAIN.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 61 50 53 / 90 80 80 80
INL 52 62 52 58 / 80 80 70 70
BRD 61 71 57 66 / 90 80 80 80
HYR 61 76 61 74 / 60 80 70 80
ASX 53 65 52 59 / 60 70 80 80
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ025-033>036.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR MNZ020-021-037.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SUNDAY FOR WIZ001.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CLC/MILLER
LONG TERM....MELDE
000
FXUS63 KDLH 182124
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
424 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...
LOW LEVEL WARM FRONTAL ZONE HAS BECOME WELL ESTABLISHED ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE I94 CORRIDOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS ALONG
AND NORTH OF THIS FRONTAL ZONE WILL BE THE FOCUS AREA FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
BY LATE THIS EVENING AND 30-40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP AND INTERACT WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS WILL ENHANCE
WARM/MOIST ADVECTION IN THE LOWEST LEVELS..AND ALSO RESULT IN
INCREASED FRONTOGENETIC FORCING FOR MESOSCALE ASCENT. THE RESULT
IS EXPECTED TO BE REDEVELOPMENT OF RATHER WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/TSTORMS OVERNIGHT. INFLUX OF 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH PRECIP WATER
AMOUNTS /ALMOST 300% OF CLIMO NORMALS FOR MID MAY/ FURTHER
SUPPORTS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
THUS..WE HAVE HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CASS/CROW
WING/AITKIN COUNTIES WHERE 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN ALREADY FELL THIS
MORNING. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXACT LOCATION
WHERE STORMS WILL REDEVELOP..SO THE WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ADJUSTED/EXPANDED ACCORDING TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS LATER THIS
EVENING.
LARGE SCALE TROF AND SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DEEPEN
WHILE MOVING TOWARD MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY..WITH LITTLE NORTHWARD
PROGRESS OF THE WARM FRONT. THUS..THERE SHOULD BE A CONTINUED FLUX
OF WARM/MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION SUPPORTING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS/TSTORMS. ALSO..AS SFC LOW DEEPENS TO OUR SOUTHWEST AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS NORTHEAST OF LK SUPERIOR..EASTERLY GRADIENT
SHOULD ALLOW FOR FAIRLY GUSTY ENE WINDS INVOF LK SUPERIOR LATER
SUNDAY. IN GENERAL..WE WENT BELOW GUIDANCE ON TEMPS..AS
COMBINATION OF CLOUDS/PRECIP AND EASTERLY FLOW FAVOR SMALLER
DIURNAL TEMP RANGE FOR SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION IS THE FAR SE
PORTION OF THE CWA..WHICH COULD GET INTO THE SFC WARM SECTOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS REACHING THE LOWER 80S
/LOWER-MID 60S.
.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
FOCUS DURING THIS PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE VERY SLOW
MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT...WITH A GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOW
OVER THE SOUTH DAKOTA/NEBRASKA AREA AT 00Z MONDAY. THEY ONLY THEN
MOVE IT SLOWLY EAST BY 00Z WED...PLACING THE LOW ANYWHERE FROM
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...TO THE NEBRASKA/IOWA BORDER DEPENDING ON THE
MODEL. WHAT THESE MEANS FOR MOST OF THE NORTHLAND IS PLENTY OF
RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH
CHANCES WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE NORTH TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH PWAT VALUES
FROM 1.25 TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES. THIS WILL PROVIDE PLENTY FUEL FOR
RAIN.
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS LOOKING LIKELY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS IS ON TOP OF RAIN THAT FELL LAST NIGHT/TODAY
AND IS EXPECTED TONIGHT/SUNDAY. ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAIN...POSSIBLY MORE GIVEN THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS AND
TRAINING STORMS...IS EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY EVENING.
WE`VE ALREADY SEEN A SHARP RISE IN THE RIVERS OVER FAR NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. THE THREAT FOR SOME FLOODING IS INCREASING...BUT THE
EXTENT IS DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE AT THIS POINT. THERE IS A FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT...AND ADDITIONAL
WATCHES MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON
HOW THINGS DEVELOP TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH
MOST AREAS DRY THURSDAY.
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE DRY CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. WE BRING IN A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO OUR FAR
WEST NEXT SATURDAY...BUT THE 12Z ECMWF IS SLOWER AND WOULD SUGGEST
ANOTHER DRY DAY.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WAS UNDER IFR OR LOW MVFR CEILINGS WITH
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR
AS WELL WITH A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. WE EXPECT THE CURRENT RAIN TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MOIST FLOW
OVER A WARM FRONT WHICH REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL
BECOME A FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY. VARIOUS MODELS
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER REGION...THEN THEY
MOVE THE SHOWERS/STORMS EAST/NORTHEAST.
WE DID INCREASE VSBYS AT KDLH AROUND 21Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. WE FOLLOWED THE RAP...AS IT SHOWED MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DIMINISHING AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE SUN TO
WORK ON THE STRATUS AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BOOST VSBYS. WE THINK FOG
WILL COME BACK IN AGAIN THIS EVENING LOWER VSBYS AGAIN.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 50 61 50 53 / 90 80 80 80
INL 52 62 52 58 / 80 80 70 70
BRD 61 71 57 66 / 90 80 80 80
HYR 61 76 61 74 / 60 80 70 80
ASX 53 65 52 59 / 60 70 80 80
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON FOR MNZ025-033>036.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM....MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE
000
FXUS63 KDLH 181750
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...18Z TAFS
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WAS UNDER IFR OR LOW MVFR CEILINGS WITH
LIGHT RAIN/DRIZZLE. DENSE FOG WAS OCCURRING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR
AS WELL WITH A MOIST ONSHORE FLOW. WE EXPECT THE CURRENT RAIN TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
REDEVELOPMENT LIKELY LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. MOIST FLOW
OVER A WARM FRONT WHICH REMAINS TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL
BECOME A FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS/STORMS TODAY. VARIOUS MODELS
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OVER THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER REGION...THEN THEY
MOVE THE SHOWERS/STORMS EAST/NORTHEAST.
WE DID INCREASE VSBYS AT KDLH AROUND 21Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS
IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. WE FOLLOWED THE RAP...AS IT SHOWED MID-
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS DIMINISHING AND THAT SHOULD ALLOW THE SUN TO
WORK ON THE STRATUS AND MAY BE ENOUGH TO BOOST VSBYS. WE THINK FOG
WILL COME BACK IN AGAIN THIS EVENING LOWER VSBYS AGAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 934 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
UPDATE...
MCV GENERATED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE DAKOTAS IS MOVING
INTO THE BRAINERD/WALKER AREAS AS OF MID-MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM
LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM NEAR MSP METRO AREA TO IRONWOOD HAS
TEMPORARILY SHUNTED THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WELL SOUTH OF THE
DULUTH CWA.
MCV WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO MID AFTERNOON..AND LOCAL MESOSCALE
LIFT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS
OVER NRN MN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
INTERACTS WITH WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET GOES THROUGH ITS DIURNAL WEAKENING/BACKING CYCLE LATE THIS
MORNING..CONVECTION NEAR MSP SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN..AIDED BY
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING MCV. THIS SHOULD LEAVE
MUCH OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR POPS FOR MUCH
OF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS TONIGHT.
WANING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE-925 MB WARM
FRONTAL ZONE TO RE-CONSOLIDATE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I94 CORRIDOR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON..WITH A FAIRLY ROBUST WARM SECTOR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S STREAM
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL REFORM THIS
EVENING..AND ENHANCED LIFT DRIVEN BY WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND LOW
LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
TSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SVR STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE DLH
CWA..WE CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE SW CWA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER..THE MAIN POINT OF FOCUS FOR THE NORTHLAND WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. SOME AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN ALREADY HAVE
RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
OVERNIGHT..AND ONE REPORT OF 2+ INCHES WAS ALSO RECEIVED FROM
SOUTHERN CASS COUNTY. CONFIDENT IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH JUST
YET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION TONITE..BUT WE MAY NEED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
FINALLY..BROAD EASTERLY GRADIENT ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER COLD DAY IN AREAS EXPOSED TO LK SUPERIOR
WHERE COLD/STABLE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN LOCKED IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. UPDATES TO GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT
PRODUCTS REFLECTING ABOVE MENTIONED REASONING AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. EAST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL NORTH OF A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. TAF SITES WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY BETWEEN VFR AND
IFR/LIFR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AT
985H IS DRAPED OVER THE SWRN CWA WITH THE MOIST AXIS AT 85H
STRETCHING FROM NWRN MN INTO THE BRD LAKES REGION. PRECIP IS
REGENERATING WEST OF THE CWA AND MOVING NE TOWARDS THE BRD LAKES
VICINITY. 3 TO 4 TENTHS INCH RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED IN PARTS OF
CASS COUNTY SO FAR WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING TO ALMOST A TENTH AT
KDLH.
TODAY...VERY TRICKY PATTERN AS SYNOPTIC SCALE AMPLIFIES ACROSS
WRN/CTRL CONUS THIS PERIOD. LOW LVL BOUNDARIES AND THEIR FORECAST
POSITIONING ULTIMATELY DRIVE MORE FAVORED AREA OF POPS. HOWEVER
THESE BOUNDARIES ARE INFLUENCED BY THE VERY CONVECTION THEY
GENERATE...IMPEDING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. CWA REMAINS UNDER A LARGE
SCALE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WHICH ALLOWS PWATS TO INCREASE AND
SHOWERS /STORMS TO OCCUR ALMOST ANYTIME. GENERAL FEELING IS THAT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. HI RES DLHWRF/ECMWF
MDLS SUGGEST LOW LVL THERMAL BDRY REMAINS IN MORE CLASSIC LOCATION
ACROSS CTRL WISC ZONES WEST TO CASS LAKE MN BY 00Z SUNDAY. FCST
INSTABILITY SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGHER SFC CAPE DEVELOPING NEAR
MARINE BDRY THIS AFTN IN WISCONSIN. COULD SEE CONVECTION INCREASE
AT THAT TIME HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED BY DIFFERENCES AMONGST
FCST SNDGS WITHIN THE MDL SUITE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS PER
SPC ACROSS SWRN CORNER OF CWA INCLUDING KBRD TO BACKUS CORRIDOR.
OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY...THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF PRECIP/CONVECTION SHOULD SETUP
OVER NWRN CWA AND SOUTH TO WRN MN. THIS IS ALONG THE WELL
DEVELOPED INVERTED TROUGH IN THE BDRY LYR. THIS FEATURE WILL VERY
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN LOW LVL NE FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAL AVERAGE QPF MAY
REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER A LARGE PART OF MN CWA...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER TOTALS IN REPEAT CONVECTION ZONES.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST PART
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS LOW PRESSURE ESSENTIALLY CLOSES OFF OVER
MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR MID MAY...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STORM SYSTEM. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
WHICH MAY RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FOR MANY LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE STORM SYSTEM. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY START
TO DECREASE POPS. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT
BUT THERE ARE DEFINITELY DISTINCT DIFFERENCES CONCERNING OVERALL QPF
AND TIMING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...BRINGING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 60S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS WITH LITTLE EXCEPTION. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BE COOLER WITH PERSISTENT EAST WINDS PREVAILING.
AVIATION...06Z TAFS.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED/SPREAD INTO THE BRD AREA WITH MORE
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MN AND INTO NW WI. EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT INL THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. BY MID MORNING...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT MOST SITES WITH INL NOT IMPACTED UNTIL 21Z. A BREAK IN THE
PCPN AFTER 21Z AT THE OTHER SITES UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND AFFECTS THE
TERMINALS ABOUT 03Z.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 53 68 52 57 / 90 80 80 80
INL 53 64 53 59 / 80 80 70 70
BRD 61 77 58 67 / 90 80 80 80
HYR 58 78 61 73 / 60 70 70 80
ASX 54 74 53 60 / 60 70 80 80
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...MELDE
000
FXUS63 KDLH 181434 AAA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
934 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.UPDATE...
MCV GENERATED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION IN THE DAKOTAS IS MOVING
INTO THE BRAINERD/WALKER AREAS AS OF MID-MORNING. OUTFLOW FROM
LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX FROM NEAR MSP METRO AREA TO IRONWOOD HAS
TEMPORARILY SHUNTED THE SURFACE WARM SECTOR WELL SOUTH OF THE
DULUTH CWA.
MCV WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO MID AFTERNOON..AND LOCAL MESOSCALE
LIFT IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTORMS
OVER NRN MN FOR MUCH OF THE DAY AS ASCENT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE
INTERACTS WITH WEAKLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. AS THE NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL
JET GOES THROUGH ITS DIURNAL WEAKENING/BACKING CYCLE LATE THIS
MORNING..CONVECTION NEAR MSP SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN..AIDED BY
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF PASSING MCV. THIS SHOULD LEAVE
MUCH OF OUR SOUTHERN CWA WITH ONLY LOW CHANCES FOR POPS FOR MUCH
OF THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER..STAGE APPEARS TO BE SET FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS/TSTORMS TONIGHT.
WANING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD ALLOW SURFACE-925 MB WARM
FRONTAL ZONE TO RE-CONSOLIDATE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE I94 CORRIDOR BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON..WITH A FAIRLY ROBUST WARM SECTOR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FRONT AS SURFACE DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S STREAM
NORTHWARD FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LOW LEVEL JET WILL REFORM THIS
EVENING..AND ENHANCED LIFT DRIVEN BY WARM/MOIST ADVECTION AND LOW
LEVEL FGEN ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE SHOULD SUPPORT ADDITIONAL
TSTORMS OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE BEST CHANCE OF ANY SVR STORMS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS WELL SOUTHWEST OF THE DLH
CWA..WE CERTAINLY NOT RULE OUT A FEW STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS OVER THE SW CWA OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER..THE MAIN POINT OF FOCUS FOR THE NORTHLAND WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL. SOME AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN ALREADY HAVE
RECEIVED BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH THE INITIAL ROUND
OVERNIGHT..AND ONE REPOT OF 2+ INCHES WAS ALSO RECEIVED FROM
SOUTHERN CASS COUNTY. CONFIDENT IS NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH JUST
YET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY OF EXACT PLACEMENT AND INTENSITY OF
CONVECTION TONITE..BUT WE MAY NEED TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR SOME AREAS TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.
FINALLY..BROAD EASTERLY GRADIENT ALONG WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP
SHOULD MAKE FOR ANOTHER COLD DAY IN AREAS EXPOSED TO LK SUPERIOR
WHERE COLD/STABLE MARINE LAYER SHOULD BE ABLE TO REMAIN LOCKED IN
PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY. UPDATES TO GRIDS AND ASSOCIATED TEXT
PRODUCTS REFLECTING ABOVE MENTIONED REASONING AND LATEST
OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS ARE ALREADY AVAILABLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 712 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. EAST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL NORTH OF A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. TAF SITES WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY BETWEEN VFR AND
IFR/LIFR.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
.LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AT
985H IS DRAPED OVER THE SWRN CWA WITH THE MOIST AXIS AT 85H
STRETCHING FROM NWRN MN INTO THE BRD LAKES REGION. PRECIP IS
REGENERATING WEST OF THE CWA AND MOVING NE TOWARDS THE BRD LAKES
VICINITY. 3 TO 4 TENTHS INCH RAINFALL HAS OCCURED IN PARTS OF
CASS COUNTY SO FAR WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING TO ALMOST A TENTH AT
KDLH.
TODAY...VERY TRICKY PATTERN AS SYNOPTIC SCALE AMPLIFIES ACROSS
WRN/CTRL CONUS THIS PERIOD. LOW LVL BOUNDARIES AND THEIR FORECAST
POSITIONING ULTIMATELY DRIVE MORE FAVORED AREA OF POPS. HOWEVER
THESE BOUNDARIES ARE INFLUENCED BY THE VERY CONVECTION THEY
GENERATE...IMPEDING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. CWA REMAINS UNDER A LARGE
SCALE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WHICH ALLOWS PWATS TO INCREASE AND
SHOWERS /STORMS TO OCCUR ALMOST ANYTIME. GENERAL FEELING IS THAT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. HI RES DLHWRF/ECMWF
MDLS SUGGEST LOW LVL THERMAL BDRY REMAINS IN MORE CLASSIC LOCATION
ACROSS CTRL WISC ZONES WEST TO CASS LAKE MN BY 00Z SUNDAY. FCST
INSTABILITY SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGHER SFC CAPE DEVELOPING NEAR
MARINE BDRY THIS AFTN IN WISCONSIN. COULD SEE CONVECTION INCREASE
AT THAT TIME HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED BY DIFFERENCES AMONGST
FCST SNDGS WITHIN THE MDL SUITE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS PER
SPC ACROSS SWRN CORNER OF CWA INCLUDING KBRD TO BACKUS CORRIDOR.
OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY...THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF PRECIP/CONVECTION SHOULD SETUP
OVER NWRN CWA AND SOUTH TO WRN MN. THIS IS ALONG THE WELL
DEVELOPED INVERTED TROUGH IN THE BDRY LYR. THIS FEATURE WILL VERY
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN LOW LVL NE FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAL AVERAGE QPF MAY
REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER A LARGE PART OF MN CWA...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER TOTALS IN REPEAT CONVECTION ZONES.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST PART
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS LOW PRESSURE ESSENTIALLY CLOSES OFF OVER
MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR MID MAY...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STORM SYSTEM. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
WHICH MAY RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FOR MANY LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE STORM SYSTEM. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY START
TO DECREASE POPS. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT
BUT THERE ARE DEFINITELY DISTINCT DIFFERENCES CONCERNING OVERALL QPF
AND TIMING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...BRINGING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 60S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS WITH LITTLE EXCEPTION. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BE COOLER WITH PERSISTENT EAST WINDS PREVAILING.
AVIATION...06Z TAFS.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED/SPREAD INTO THE BRD AREA WITH MORE
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MN AND INTO NW WI. EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT INL THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. BY MID MORNING...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT MOST SITES WITH INL NOT IMPACTED UNTIL 21Z. A BREAK IN THE
PCPN AFTER 21Z AT THE OTHER SITES UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND AFFECTS THE
TERMINALS ABOUT 03Z.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 59 53 68 52 / 80 50 70 80
INL 64 53 64 53 / 70 80 80 80
BRD 77 61 77 58 / 70 80 80 70
HYR 75 58 78 61 / 80 30 70 70
ASX 65 54 74 53 / 90 30 70 80
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MILLER
LONG TERM....MELDE
000
FXUS63 KDLH 181212
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
712 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE FOUND
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT. EAST WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG AS WELL NORTH OF A WARM FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF
OUR AREA. TAF SITES WILL VARY CONSIDERABLY BETWEEN VFR AND
IFR/LIFR.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 346 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013/
..LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...
SHORT TERM...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AT
985H IS DRAPED OVER THE SWRN CWA WITH THE MOIST AXIS AT 85H
STRETCHING FROM NWRN MN INTO THE BRD LAKES REGION. PRECIP IS
REGENERATING WEST OF THE CWA AND MOVING NE TOWARDS THE BRD LAKES
VICINITY. 3 TO 4 TENTHS INCH RAINFALL HAS OCCURED IN PARTS OF
CASS COUNTY SO FAR WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING TO ALMOST A TENTH AT
KDLH.
TODAY...VERY TRICKY PATTERN AS SYNOPTIC SCALE AMPLIFIES ACROSS
WRN/CTRL CONUS THIS PERIOD. LOW LVL BOUNDARIES AND THEIR FORECAST
POSITIONING ULTIMATELY DRIVE MORE FAVORED AREA OF POPS. HOWEVER
THESE BOUNDARIES ARE INFLUENCED BY THE VERY CONVECTION THEY
GENERATE...IMPEDING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. CWA REMAINS UNDER A LARGE
SCALE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WHICH ALLOWS PWATS TO INCREASE AND
SHOWERS /STORMS TO OCCUR ALMOST ANYTIME. GENERAL FEELING IS THAT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. HI RES DLHWRF/ECMWF
MDLS SUGGEST LOW LVL THERMAL BDRY REMAINS IN MORE CLASSIC LOCATION
ACROSS CTRL WISC ZONES WEST TO CASS LAKE MN BY 00Z SUNDAY. FCST
INSTABILITY SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGHER SFC CAPE DEVELOPING NEAR
MARINE BDRY THIS AFTN IN WISCONSIN. COULD SEE CONVECTION INCREASE
AT THAT TIME HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED BY DIFFERENCES AMONGST
FCST SNDGS WITHIN THE MDL SUITE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS PER
SPC ACROSS SWRN CORNER OF CWA INCLUDING KBRD TO BACKUS CORRIDOR.
OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY...THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF PRECIP/CONVECTION SHOULD SETUP
OVER NWRN CWA AND SOUTH TO WRN MN. THIS IS ALONG THE WELL
DEVELOPED INVERTED TROUGH IN THE BDRY LYR. THIS FEATURE WILL VERY
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN LOW LVL NE FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAL AVERAGE QPF MAY
REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER A LARGE PART OF MN CWA...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER TOTALS IN REPEAT CONVECTION ZONES.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST PART
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS LOW PRESSURE ESSENTIALLY CLOSES OFF OVER
MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR MID MAY...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STORM SYSTEM. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
WHICH MAY RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FOR MANY LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE STORM SYSTEM. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY START
TO DECREASE POPS. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT
BUT THERE ARE DEFINITELY DISTINCT DIFFERENCES CONCERNING OVERALL QPF
AND TIMING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...BRINGING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 60S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS WITH LITTLE EXCEPTION. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BE COOLER WITH PERSISTENT EAST WINDS PREVAILING.
AVIATION...06Z TAFS.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED/SPREAD INTO THE BRD AREA WITH MORE
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MN AND INTO NW WI. EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT INL THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. BY MID MORNING...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT MOST SITES WITH INL NOT IMPACTED UNTIL 21Z. A BREAK IN THE
PCPN AFTER 21Z AT THE OTHER SITES UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND AFFECTS THE
TERMINALS ABOUT 03Z.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 59 53 68 52 / 60 50 70 80
INL 64 53 64 53 / 60 80 80 80
BRD 77 61 77 58 / 60 80 80 70
HYR 75 58 78 61 / 50 20 70 70
ASX 66 54 74 53 / 60 30 70 80
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM....DAP
AVIATION...DAP
000
FXUS63 KDLH 180846
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
346 AM CDT SAT MAY 18 2013
...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND...
.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS/STORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA EARLY THIS MORNING. AN AREA OF WEAK FRONTOGENESIS AT
985H IS DRAPED OVER THE SWRN CWA WITH THE MOIST AXIS AT 85H
STRETCHING FROM NWRN MN INTO THE BRD LAKES REGION. PRECIP IS
REGENERATING WEST OF THE CWA AND MOVING NE TOWARDS THE BRD LAKES
VICINITY. 3 TO 4 TENTHS INCH RAINFALL HAS OCCURED IN PARTS OF
CASS COUNTY SO FAR WITH AMOUNTS TAPERING TO ALMOST A TENTH AT
KDLH.
TODAY...VERY TRICKY PATTERN AS SYNOPTIC SCALE AMPLIFIES ACROSS
WRN/CTRL CONUS THIS PERIOD. LOW LVL BOUNDARIES AND THEIR FORECAST
POSITIONING ULTIMATELY DRIVE MORE FAVORED AREA OF POPS. HOWEVER
THESE BOUNDARIES ARE INFLUENCED BY THE VERY CONVECTION THEY
GENERATE...IMPEDING NORTHWARD PROGRESS. CWA REMAINS UNDER A LARGE
SCALE WARM ADVECTION REGIME WHICH ALLOWS PWATS TO INCREASE AND
SHOWERS /STORMS TO OCCUR ALMOST ANYTIME. GENERAL FEELING IS THAT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY
WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED. HI RES DLHWRF/ECMWF
MDLS SUGGEST LOW LVL THERMAL BDRY REMAINS IN MORE CLASSIC LOCATION
ACROSS CTRL WISC ZONES WEST TO CASS LAKE MN BY 00Z SUNDAY. FCST
INSTABILITY SHOWS AN AXIS OF HIGHER SFC CAPE DEVELOPING NEAR
MARINE BDRY THIS AFTN IN WISCONSIN. COULD SEE CONVECTION INCREASE
AT THAT TIME HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED BY DIFFERENCES AMONGST
FCST SNDGS WITHIN THE MDL SUITE. A SLIGHT RISK OF SVR STORMS PER
SPC ACROSS SWRN CORNER OF CWA INCLUDING KBRD TO BACKUS CORRIDOR.
OVERNIGHT/SUNDAY...THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF PRECIP/CONVECTION SHOULD SETUP
OVER NWRN CWA AND SOUTH TO WRN MN. THIS IS ALONG THE WELL
DEVELOPED INVERTED TROUGH IN THE BDRY LYR. THIS FEATURE WILL VERY
SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTHEAST SUNDAY. AS THAT OCCURS...EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN LOW LVL NE FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. HEAVIER RAIN SHOULD SHIFT
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AREAL AVERAGE QPF MAY
REACH 1 TO 2 INCHES OVER A LARGE PART OF MN CWA...WITH ISOLATED
HIGHER TOTALS IN REPEAT CONVECTION ZONES.
LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST PART
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS LOW PRESSURE ESSENTIALLY CLOSES OFF OVER
MINNESOTA BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AS IS FAIRLY TYPICAL FOR MID MAY...A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STORM SYSTEM. THERE LOOKS TO BE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION
WHICH MAY RESULT IN SEVERAL INCHES OF RAIN FOR MANY LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE STORM SYSTEM. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH POPS
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH ABOUT WEDNESDAY...AND THEN GRADUALLY START
TO DECREASE POPS. THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO A BIT BETTER AGREEMENT
BUT THERE ARE DEFINITELY DISTINCT DIFFERENCES CONCERNING OVERALL QPF
AND TIMING. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM...BRINGING VERY DRY AIR INTO THE REGION FOR MUCH OF
THURSDAY...FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. TEMPS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 60S FOR
DAYTIME HIGHS WITH LITTLE EXCEPTION. AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BE COOLER WITH PERSISTENT EAST WINDS PREVAILING.
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED/SPREAD INTO THE BRD AREA WITH MORE
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MN AND INTO NW WI. EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT INL THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. BY MID MORNING...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT MOST SITES WITH INL NOT IMPACTED UNTIL 21Z. A BREAK IN THE
PCPN AFTER 21Z AT THE OTHER SITES UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND AFFECTS THE
TERMINALS ABOUT 03Z.
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 59 53 68 52 / 60 50 70 80
INL 64 53 64 53 / 60 80 80 80
BRD 77 61 77 58 / 50 80 80 70
HYR 75 58 78 61 / 40 20 70 70
ASX 66 54 74 53 / 60 30 70 80
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM....DAP
000
FXUS63 KDLH 180448
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1148 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED/SPREAD INTO THE BRD AREA WITH MORE
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EAST CENTRAL MN AND INTO NW WI. EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND AFFECT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT INL THROUGH THE
EARLY MORNING. BY MID MORNING...ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT MOST SITES WITH INL NOT IMPACTED UNTIL 21Z. A BREAK IN THE
PCPN AFTER 21Z AT THE OTHER SITES UNTIL THE NEXT ROUND AFFECTS THE
TERMINALS ABOUT 03Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 818 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
UPDATE...RAIN HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE FA SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE FA. THIS IS UNDER A SMALL LINE OF REFLECTIVITIES SEEN ON
RADAR. THIS INITIAL BATCH WILL NOT LAST LONG. MORE SIGNIFICANT
ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z WITH WAA AND LLJ IMPINGING ON
THE FA. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TONIGHT DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND TO POPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TREND.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. THE EXCEPTION IS AT
BRD WHERE MVFR CIGS WITH VCSH UNTIL 19Z. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z. LEFT
THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT ALL LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
WILL END BRIEFLY AROUND 21Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE CWA WAS DRY AS OF 20Z...WITH SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER
THE FAR NORTH THAT MAY SPIT OUT SOME SPRINKLES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN
CONUS COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT`S STILL FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE REGION...STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. WAA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING
IN THE LOW LEVELS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WE ARE SEEING A
RESPONSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN ALREADY WITH INCREASING SHOWERS. STABILITIES WILL
GRADUALLY DROP OVERNIGHT...AND WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
THE STRONGEST FGEN/WAA OCCURS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ON
SATURDAY...SO WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THERE...WITH THE LOWEST
OVER OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES. STABILITIES WILL DROP FURTHER
ON SATURDAY...AND WITH THE WARM FRONT DRAPED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...FORCING WILL REMAIN FOR A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT FROM 35 TO 40 OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA...TO 45 TO 52 OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON RAIN COVERAGE. WE HAVE HIGHS
FROM THE MID SIXTIES FAR NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES
SOUTH. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD INTO THE PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A
SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER KS/NE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD
INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND NW MN. STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM THE SOUTH WILL ADVECT IN AHEAD OF THE LOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME RELATIVELY UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE TWO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PARTS
TO THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. THE INITIAL CONCERNS WILL BE WITH THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ELEVATED SAT NIGHT AND SUN
MORNING...BUT EVENTUALLY MORE SFC BASED AND POSSIBLY STRONGER SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL
ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAA AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SRN
COUNTIES. THE INTERACTION OF THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...THE SFC
TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE AND STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A NUMBER OF STRONG...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT. BY EARLY MONDAY THE MAJORITY OF THE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED TO THE E/SE...DECREASING THE
STORM POTENTIAL FROM N TO S.
THE OTHER PLAYER WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
WILL OCCUR OVER A 3-4 DAY PERIOD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND WILL RECEIVE AROUND 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS
TIME...WITH LOCALIZED 4 INCH OR GREATER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
N-CENTRAL MN. A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH ACROSS NRN MN...AND THE LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN DETERMINING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMTS
OCCUR. THERE COULD BE BOTH LOCALIZED/SHORT TERM HYDRO CONCERNS...AND
LONG TERM/WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING THAT RESULTS FROM THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
HIGHS INLAND WILL REACH INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S...WITH 50S AND
LOWER 60S NEAR THE LAKE. A COOL DOWN STARTS MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE COOL WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...AND A PERSISTENT NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ONLY MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL COOLER.
AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
ALSO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR VCTS TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AFTER 12Z SAT MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES DURING AND AFTER RAIN SHOWERS. COULD ALSO
SEE REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 44 60 53 68 / 60 50 50 70
INL 45 64 53 64 / 10 60 80 80
BRD 51 76 61 77 / 60 60 80 70
HYR 46 76 58 78 / 40 50 20 60
ASX 45 71 54 74 / 70 60 30 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...GSF
000
FXUS63 KDLH 180118
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
818 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.UPDATE...RAIN HAS FINALLY DEVELOPED OVER THE FA SOUTHERN TIER OF
THE FA. THIS IS UNDER A SMALL LINE OF REFLECTIVITIES SEEN ON
RADAR. THIS INITIAL BATCH WILL NOT LAST LONG. MORE SIGNIFICANT
ROUND OF SHOWERS EXPECTED AFTER 06Z WITH WAA AND LLJ IMPINGING ON
THE FA. HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER TONIGHT DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND TO POPS TO
REFLECT CURRENT TREND.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 619 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. THE EXCEPTION IS AT
BRD WHERE MVFR CIGS WITH VCSH UNTIL 19Z. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z. LEFT
THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT ALL LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
WILL END BRIEFLY AROUND 21Z.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE CWA WAS DRY AS OF 20Z...WITH SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER
THE FAR NORTH THAT MAY SPIT OUT SOME SPRINKLES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN
CONUS COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT`S STILL FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE REGION...STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. WAA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING
IN THE LOW LEVELS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WE ARE SEEING A
RESPONSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN ALREADY WITH INCREASING SHOWERS. STABILITIES WILL
GRADUALLY DROP OVERNIGHT...AND WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
THE STRONGEST FGEN/WAA OCCURS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ON
SATURDAY...SO WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THERE...WITH THE LOWEST
OVER OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES. STABILITIES WILL DROP FURTHER
ON SATURDAY...AND WITH THE WARM FRONT DRAPED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...FORCING WILL REMAIN FOR A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT FROM 35 TO 40 OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA...TO 45 TO 52 OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON RAIN COVERAGE. WE HAVE HIGHS
FROM THE MID SIXTIES FAR NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES
SOUTH. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD INTO THE PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A
SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER KS/NE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD
INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND NW MN. STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM THE SOUTH WILL ADVECT IN AHEAD OF THE LOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME RELATIVELY UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE TWO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PARTS
TO THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. THE INITIAL CONCERNS WILL BE WITH THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ELEVATED SAT NIGHT AND SUN
MORNING...BUT EVENTUALLY MORE SFC BASED AND POSSIBLY STRONGER SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL
ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAA AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SRN
COUNTIES. THE INTERACTION OF THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...THE SFC
TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE AND STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A NUMBER OF STRONG...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT. BY EARLY MONDAY THE MAJORITY OF THE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED TO THE E/SE...DECREASING THE
STORM POTENTIAL FROM N TO S.
THE OTHER PLAYER WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
WILL OCCUR OVER A 3-4 DAY PERIOD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND WILL RECEIVE AROUND 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS
TIME...WITH LOCALIZED 4 INCH OR GREATER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
N-CENTRAL MN. A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH ACROSS NRN MN...AND THE LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN DETERMINING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMTS
OCCUR. THERE COULD BE BOTH LOCALIZED/SHORT TERM HYDRO CONCERNS...AND
LONG TERM/WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING THAT RESULTS FROM THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
HIGHS INLAND WILL REACH INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S...WITH 50S AND
LOWER 60S NEAR THE LAKE. A COOL DOWN STARTS MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE COOL WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...AND A PERSISTENT NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ONLY MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL COOLER.
AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
ALSO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR VCTS TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AFTER 12Z SAT MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES DURING AND AFTER RAIN SHOWERS. COULD ALSO
SEE REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 44 60 53 68 / 50 50 50 70
INL 45 64 53 64 / 20 60 80 80
BRD 51 76 61 77 / 60 60 80 70
HYR 46 76 58 78 / 40 50 20 60
ASX 47 71 54 74 / 60 60 30 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ143>146.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
000
FXUS63 KDLH 172319
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
619 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE FA THROUGH ABOUT 06Z. THE EXCEPTION IS AT
BRD WHERE MVFR CIGS WITH VCSH UNTIL 19Z. ELSEWHERE...MVFR CIGS
WITH AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA AFTER 06Z. LEFT
THE MENTION OF THUNDER AT ALL LOCATIONS IN THE AFTERNOON. PCPN
WILL END BRIEFLY AROUND 21Z.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE CWA WAS DRY AS OF 20Z...WITH SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER
THE FAR NORTH THAT MAY SPIT OUT SOME SPRINKLES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN
CONUS COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT`S STILL FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE REGION...STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. WAA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING
IN THE LOW LEVELS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WE ARE SEEING A
RESPONSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN ALREADY WITH INCREASING SHOWERS. STABILITIES WILL
GRADUALLY DROP OVERNIGHT...AND WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
THE STRONGEST FGEN/WAA OCCURS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ON
SATURDAY...SO WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THERE...WITH THE LOWEST
OVER OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES. STABILITIES WILL DROP FURTHER
ON SATURDAY...AND WITH THE WARM FRONT DRAPED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...FORCING WILL REMAIN FOR A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT FROM 35 TO 40 OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA...TO 45 TO 52 OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON RAIN COVERAGE. WE HAVE HIGHS
FROM THE MID SIXTIES FAR NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES
SOUTH. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING.
LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD INTO THE PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A
SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER KS/NE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD
INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND NW MN. STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM THE SOUTH WILL ADVECT IN AHEAD OF THE LOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME RELATIVELY UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE TWO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PARTS
TO THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. THE INITIAL CONCERNS WILL BE WITH THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ELEVATED SAT NIGHT AND SUN
MORNING...BUT EVENTUALLY MORE SFC BASED AND POSSIBLY STRONGER SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL
ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAA AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SRN
COUNTIES. THE INTERACTION OF THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...THE SFC
TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE AND STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A NUMBER OF STRONG...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT. BY EARLY MONDAY THE MAJORITY OF THE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED TO THE E/SE...DECREASING THE
STORM POTENTIAL FROM N TO S.
THE OTHER PLAYER WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
WILL OCCUR OVER A 3-4 DAY PERIOD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND WILL RECEIVE AROUND 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS
TIME...WITH LOCALIZED 4 INCH OR GREATER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
N-CENTRAL MN. A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH ACROSS NRN MN...AND THE LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN DETERMINING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMTS
OCCUR. THERE COULD BE BOTH LOCALIZED/SHORT TERM HYDRO CONCERNS...AND
LONG TERM/WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING THAT RESULTS FROM THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
HIGHS INLAND WILL REACH INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S...WITH 50S AND
LOWER 60S NEAR THE LAKE. A COOL DOWN STARTS MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE COOL WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...AND A PERSISTENT NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ONLY MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL COOLER.
AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
ALSO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR VCTS TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AFTER 12Z SAT MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES DURING AND AFTER RAIN SHOWERS. COULD ALSO
SEE REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 41 60 53 68 / 60 60 50 70
INL 45 64 53 64 / 50 60 80 80
BRD 50 76 61 77 / 60 50 80 70
HYR 47 76 58 78 / 60 50 20 60
ASX 44 71 54 74 / 60 60 30 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ143>146.
&&
$$
AVIATION...GSF
000
FXUS63 KDLH 172008
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
308 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...THROUGH SATURDAY.
MOST OF THE CWA WAS DRY AS OF 20Z...WITH SOME LIGHT RETURNS OVER
THE FAR NORTH THAT MAY SPIT OUT SOME SPRINKLES.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE WESTERN
CONUS COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND IT`S STILL FORECAST TO MOVE EAST
TOWARD THE REGION...STRETCHING FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION BY 00Z SUNDAY. WAA WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING
IN THE LOW LEVELS AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES. WE ARE SEEING A
RESPONSE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN ALREADY WITH INCREASING SHOWERS. STABILITIES WILL
GRADUALLY DROP OVERNIGHT...AND WE SHOULD SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPAND AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.
THE STRONGEST FGEN/WAA OCCURS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS ON
SATURDAY...SO WE HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS THERE...WITH THE LOWEST
OVER OUR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES. STABILITIES WILL DROP FURTHER
ON SATURDAY...AND WITH THE WARM FRONT DRAPED NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF
THE NORTHLAND...FORCING WILL REMAIN FOR A MENTION OF
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
EXPECT LOWS TONIGHT FROM 35 TO 40 OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA...TO 45 TO 52 OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.
HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON RAIN COVERAGE. WE HAVE HIGHS
FROM THE MID SIXTIES FAR NORTH...TO THE MID TO UPPER SEVENTIES
SOUTH. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL REMAIN MUCH COOLER WITH AN
ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUING.
.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH RAIN SHOWERS
AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES
WILL CONTINUE TO DIG SEWD INTO THE PLAINS SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A
SFC LOW DEVELOPS OVER KS/NE WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NWD
INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS AND NW MN. STRONG WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
FROM THE SOUTH WILL ADVECT IN AHEAD OF THE LOW DURING THE DAY SUNDAY
AND ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME RELATIVELY UNSTABLE OVER MUCH OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE TWO POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT PARTS
TO THIS WEATHER SYSTEM. THE INITIAL CONCERNS WILL BE WITH THE
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ELEVATED SAT NIGHT AND SUN
MORNING...BUT EVENTUALLY MORE SFC BASED AND POSSIBLY STRONGER SUN
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE SLOW PROGRESSION OF THE LOW TO THE EAST WILL
ALLOW FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WAA AND DESTABILIZATION ACROSS A
GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND...MOST SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE SRN
COUNTIES. THE INTERACTION OF THIS INSTABILITY AXIS...THE SFC
TROUGH/FRONTAL ZONE AND STRONG DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR A NUMBER OF STRONG...AND POSSIBLY A FEW SEVERE
STORMS SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT. BY EARLY MONDAY THE MAJORITY OF THE
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED TO THE E/SE...DECREASING THE
STORM POTENTIAL FROM N TO S.
THE OTHER PLAYER WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT
WILL OCCUR OVER A 3-4 DAY PERIOD. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND WILL RECEIVE AROUND 1-3 INCHES OF RAIN DURING THIS
TIME...WITH LOCALIZED 4 INCH OR GREATER AMTS POSSIBLE ACROSS
N-CENTRAL MN. A TIGHT THERMAL GRADIENT WILL BE ALIGNED WITH THE SFC
TROUGH ACROSS NRN MN...AND THE LOCATION/MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE
WILL BE A MAJOR FACTOR IN DETERMINING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN AMTS
OCCUR. THERE COULD BE BOTH LOCALIZED/SHORT TERM HYDRO CONCERNS...AND
LONG TERM/WIDESPREAD RIVER FLOODING THAT RESULTS FROM THIS SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE QUITE WARM AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.
HIGHS INLAND WILL REACH INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S...WITH 50S AND
LOWER 60S NEAR THE LAKE. A COOL DOWN STARTS MON AND TUE WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE 50S AND 60S. THE COOL WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK...AND A PERSISTENT NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
ONLY MAKE CONDITIONS FEEL COOLER.
&&
.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE.
VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
ALSO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR VCTS TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AFTER 12Z SAT MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES DURING AND AFTER RAIN SHOWERS. COULD ALSO
SEE REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 41 60 53 68 / 60 60 50 70
INL 45 64 53 64 / 50 60 80 80
BRD 50 76 61 77 / 60 50 80 70
HYR 47 76 58 78 / 60 50 20 60
ASX 44 71 54 74 / 60 60 30 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ143>146.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM....TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER
000
FXUS63 KDLH 171746 AAA
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1246 PM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY LOWER LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING THROUGH THE EVENING. WILL
ALSO SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR VCTS TO DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCE AFTER 12Z SAT MORNING. CIGS WILL
LOWER TO MVFR AT TIMES DURING AND AFTER RAIN SHOWERS. COULD ALSO
SEE REDUCED VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 705 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MAIN AREA OF RAIN/STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CWA THIS MORNING HOWEVER
A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY. THIS PRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR VCSH AT
KBRD/KDLH/KHYR THIS MORNING...WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASING FROM
LATE TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AT
KBRD/KDLH OVERNIGHT.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS
A MINIMAL THREAT FOR ISOLD THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES TODAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY EAST WINDS TODAY AS THE
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE SRN ZONES. THE
GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER 60 TO AROUND 70.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE NIGHT/SATURDAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLD THUNDER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. BEST CHC FOR THUNDER ARRIVES SAT
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
POWERFUL JET STREAM WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA INTO
WEST TEXAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE
PLACE IN THE SRN PLAINS AND SFC LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS
NRN PLAINS MONDAY. BY THAT TIME...A MAJOR BLOCKING PATTERN IS
ADVERTISED BY MED RANGE MDLS WITH PLAINS MID LVL LOW BECOMING WEDGED
BETWEEN MID LVL VORTEXES OVER PACNW AND ERN CANADA. A RELATIVE MID
LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CTRL CANADA WHICH KEEPS PLAINS LOW IN A
HOLDING PATTERN INTO MIDWEEK. FINALLY...THURSDAY MDLS SUGGEST SYSTEM
WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO LARGE EASTERN CIRCULATION.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
POPS FAVORED OVER NWRN CWA...THEN MN ZONES. AS SFC/MID LVL LOW PUSH
INTO ERN SODAK EARLY MONDAY MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
FARTHER EAST INT WISC ZONES. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVING THE
PRESENCE OF THE LARGE SFC HIGH OVER CANADA. DRY LOW LVL AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO EASTERN PART OF THE REGION CONSISTENTLY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS MAY MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
ORGANIZED PRECIP TO PUSH FARTHER EAST INITIALLY. MDL QPF IS QUITE
HIGH FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH GFS/EC/GEM INDICATING TOTALS OF
1-3" POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHLAND. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO
MON/TUES...POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE NEAR THE
TWIN PORTS AS A STRONG WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH PRECIP
MAKES FOR A VERY UNPLEASANT REMINDER OF THE MID 30S WATER TEMPS.
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DEEP LAYER DRYING MAKE OCCUR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LARGE SFC/MID LVL HIGH OVER CANADA BEGINS
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR CLIO BY THUR AS MID LVL PATTERN
SHIFTS AND BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 41 61 50 66 / 60 60 40 70
INL 45 65 52 66 / 50 60 70 70
BRD 50 78 59 74 / 60 60 70 70
HYR 47 77 56 77 / 60 50 20 50
ASX 44 72 51 69 / 60 60 20 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ143>146.
&&
$$
AVIATION...TENTINGER
000
FXUS63 KDLH 171205
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MAIN AREA OF RAIN/STORMS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF CWA THIS MORNING HOWEVER
A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND TODAY. THIS PRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR VCSH AT
KBRD/KDLH/KHYR THIS MORNING...WITH CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASING FROM
LATE TODAY AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR AT
KBRD/KDLH OVERNIGHT.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013/
SHORT TERM...
A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS
A MINIMAL THREAT FOR ISOLD THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES TODAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY EAST WINDS TODAY AS THE
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE SRN ZONES. THE
GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER 60 TO AROUND 70.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE NIGHT/SATURDAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLD THUNDER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. BEST CHC FOR THUNDER ARRIVES SAT
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
POWERFUL JET STREAM WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA INTO
WEST TEXAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE
PLACE IN THE SRN PLAINS AND SFC LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS
NRN PLAINS MONDAY. BY THAT TIME...A MAJOR BLOCKING PATTERN IS
ADVERTISED BY MED RANGE MDLS WITH PLAINS MID LVL LOW BECOMING WEDGED
BETWEEN MID LVL VORTEXES OVER PACNW AND ERN CANADA. A RELATIVE MID
LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CTRL CANADA WHICH KEEPS PLAINS LOW IN A
HOLDING PATTERN INTO MIDWEEK. FINALLY...THURSDAY MDLS SUGGEST SYSTEM
WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO LARGE EASTERN CIRCULATION.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
POPS FAVORED OVER NWRN CWA...THEN MN ZONES. AS SFC/MID LVL LOW PUSH
INTO ERN SODAK EARLY MONDAY MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
FARTHER EAST INT WISC ZONES. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVING THE
PRESENCE OF THE LARGE SFC HIGH OVER CANADA. DRY LOW LVL AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO EASTERN PART OF THE REGION CONSISTENTLY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS MAY MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
ORGANIZED PRECIP TO PUSH FARTHER EAST INITIALLY. MDL QPF IS QUITE
HIGH FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH GFS/EC/GEM INDICATING TOTALS OF
1-3" POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHLAND. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO
MON/TUES...POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE NEAR THE
TWIN PORTS AS A STRONG WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH PRECIP
MAKES FOR A VERY UNPLEASANT REMINDER OF THE MID 30S WATER TEMPS.
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DEEP LAYER DRYING MAKE OCCUR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LARGE SFC/MID LVL HIGH OVER CANADA BEGINS
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR CLIO BY THUR AS MID LVL PATTERN
SHIFTS AND BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 55 39 63 50 / 40 60 60 40
INL 68 46 60 52 / 30 50 50 70
BRD 63 50 74 59 / 40 60 60 70
HYR 61 47 75 56 / 70 50 50 20
ASX 57 42 72 51 / 50 60 60 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
AVIATION...CANNON
000
FXUS63 KDLH 170900
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
400 AM CDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.SHORT TERM...
A STRENGTHENING WARM FRONT WILL LIFT OVER MUCH OF THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY. THE FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS
A MINIMAL THREAT FOR ISOLD THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SRN ZONES TODAY.
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO WILL PRODUCE AN
INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY EAST WINDS TODAY AS THE
WARM FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. HAVE INCREASED WINDS/GUSTS
TODAY/TONIGHT OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND ACROSS THE SRN ZONES. THE
GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES QUITE COOL NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S AND 50S. INLAND
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM GENERALLY INTO THE UPPER 60 TO AROUND 70.
THE WARM FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH NORTH OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE NIGHT/SATURDAY...PRODUCING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND ISOLD THUNDER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. BEST CHC FOR THUNDER ARRIVES SAT
AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
POWERFUL JET STREAM WILL PLUNGE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA INTO
WEST TEXAS AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD. CYCLOGENESIS WILL TAKE
PLACE IN THE SRN PLAINS AND SFC LOW WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTH TOWARDS
NRN PLAINS MONDAY. BY THAT TIME...A MAJOR BLOCKING PATTERN IS
ADVERTISED BY MED RANGE MDLS WITH PLAINS MID LVL LOW BECOMING WEDGED
BETWEEN MID LVL VORTEXES OVER PACNW AND ERN CANADA. A RELATIVE MID
LVL RIDGE BUILDS OVER CTRL CANADA WHICH KEEPS PLAINS LOW IN A
HOLDING PATTERN INTO MIDWEEK. FINALLY...THURSDAY MDLS SUGGEST SYSTEM
WILL BECOME ABSORBED INTO LARGE EASTERN CIRCULATION.
IN TERMS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WET WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY SHOULD SEE
POPS FAVORED OVER NWRN CWA...THEN MN ZONES. AS SFC/MID LVL LOW PUSH
INTO ERN SODAK EARLY MONDAY MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
FARTHER EAST INT WISC ZONES. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES INVOLVING THE
PRESENCE OF THE LARGE SFC HIGH OVER CANADA. DRY LOW LVL AIR WILL
ADVECT INTO EASTERN PART OF THE REGION CONSISTENTLY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS SUNDAY/MONDAY. THIS MAY MAKE IT TOUGH FOR
ORGANIZED PRECIP TO PUSH FARTHER EAST INITIALLY. MDL QPF IS QUITE
HIGH FROM SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH GFS/EC/GEM INDICATING TOTALS OF
1-3" POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHLAND. MAX TEMPS WILL FALL BELOW CLIMO
MON/TUES...POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY. THIS IS ESPECIALLY THE CASE NEAR THE
TWIN PORTS AS A STRONG WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR COMBINED WITH PRECIP
MAKES FOR A VERY UNPLEASANT REMINDER OF THE MID 30S WATER TEMPS.
SOME INDICATIONS THAT DEEP LAYER DRYING MAKE OCCUR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS LARGE SFC/MID LVL HIGH OVER CANADA BEGINS
TO PUSH SOUTHWARD. THE MOVEMENT OF THIS FEATURE IS OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE. TEMPS RETURN TO NEAR CLIO BY THUR AS MID LVL PATTERN
SHIFTS AND BECOMES MORE PROGRESSIVE.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION...06Z TAFS.
A FEW SPRINKLES ARE ATTEMPTING TO WORK INTO THE INL AREA AT THE
OUTSET WITH VFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE
FA. OTHER THAT THE SPRINKLES...HAVE DELAYED THE BEGINNING OF THE
RAIN TO AFTER 21Z AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT BRD WHERE THE RAIN MAY
MOVE INTO THE VCNY AROUND 16Z. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY
MID MORNING.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 53 39 63 50 / 40 60 60 40
INL 68 46 60 52 / 30 50 50 70
BRD 63 50 74 59 / 40 60 60 70
HYR 61 47 75 56 / 70 50 50 20
ASX 57 42 72 51 / 60 60 60 20
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM....CANNON
000
FXUS63 KDLH 170420
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1120 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...06Z TAFS.
A FEW SPRINKLES ARE ATTEMPTING TO WORK INTO THE INL AREA AT THE
OUTSET WITH VFR CIGS. ELSEWHERE...MID AND HIGH CLOUDS COVER THE
FA. OTHER THAT THE SPRINKLES...HAVE DELAYED THE BEGINNING OF THE
RAIN TO AFTER 21Z AT ALL LOCATIONS EXCEPT BRD WHERE THE RAIN MAY
MOVE INTO THE VCNTY AROUND 16Z. SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY
MID MORNING.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 819 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPDATE...DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN AS VERY DRY AIR WILL BE TOUGH
TO OVERCOME. OTHER MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
VFR AT THE OUTSET WITH CI SHIELD OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS WITH
SOME MID CLOUDS. APPEARS THE RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE BRD AREA BY
12Z WITH MVFR CIGS...THEN DLH/HYR AROUND 15Z AND HIB NEAR 17Z.
HAVE KEPT INL WITH VFR WHICH SHOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RAIN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM.../NOW - FRIDAY/
THE FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH AN MCS.
THE MCS IS CURRENTLY NEAR SE SOUTH DAKOTA AND NE NEBRASKA WITH A
WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE
MODELS INDICATE...WITH VARYING DIFFERENCES...THAT THE MCS WILL
MOVE AND LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
US AMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE NAM/SREF/WRF-NMM TAKE THE
MCS MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...WHICH GENERALLY
BRING THE MCS ACROSS OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. I LEANED
ON THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...BUT INCORPORATED THE SREF AND NAM IN MY
BLEND...WHICH RESULTED IN INCREASING AND SPREADING POPS NORTHWARD.
I AM NOT CONVINCED ENOUGH OF THUNDER TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE THUNDER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE MCS.
THROUGH TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN
THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE MCS IN THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY MOVE AND LIFT NORTH
AND EAST TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS IOWA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE MCS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE MCS APPROACHES THE NORTHLAND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
FRIDAY...IT SHOULD AT LEAST BE A CLOUDY AND AND COOLER DAY ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND DUE TO THE APPROACHING MCS. I LOWERED TEMPERATURES
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE CLOUD
COVER INHIBITING WARMING. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH THE
MCS WILL LIFT. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY TAKE THE MCS NEAR OR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
GENERALLY MUCH FARTHER NORTH. I AM MORE APT TO BELIEVE IN THE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION DUE TO THE EXPECTED COOL EASTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL BE COMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...I DID INCREASE AND
SPREAD POPS NORTHWARD. SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA...IF THIS ENDS UP BEING THE TRACK OF THE MCS...COULD GET SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAIN...MAYBE UP TO A HALF INCH. I INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT I AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THUNDER FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN...COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATE FRI AND SAT WILL HELP ADVECT IN A WARM
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN MN LATE FRI NIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AND FOCUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH THE FRONT WILL LIFT. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS FAR NRN MN...AROUND OR JUST
NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE TO THE INTL BORDER. THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT WILL NOT ONLY DETERMINE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION...BUT ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING
TEMPERATURES SAT AND SUN. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING OR DRYING
OUT SOUTH OF THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG CAP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO JUMP HIGHER THAN FORECAST...AND ALSO BUILD
UP ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE STRONGER T-STORMS. NEED TO
MONITOR HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
WEEKEND.
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE PRESSURE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT TO THE NE THROUGH MN AND EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN
AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AROUND CENTRAL/SRN MN. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW A HEAVY AMT OF
MOISTURE TO CONTINUALLY BE PUMPED INTO THE REGION AND RESULT IN A
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. THE INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS. HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY...MOST OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY MOVES TO SE WITH THE
COLD CORE LOW AND LEAVES MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WITH SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMT OF RAINFALL...WHICH WOULD
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO POSSIBLE HYDRO CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WARM INLAND AND COOL NEAR THE LAKE
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...AND UPPER
50S/60S RESPECTIVELY. BUT QUICKLY COOL OFF LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 46 54 42 62 / 10 50 60 60
INL 46 67 47 61 / 10 20 50 60
BRD 48 62 51 76 / 30 60 60 70
HYR 47 58 48 73 / 10 70 60 50
ASX 41 56 45 67 / 10 60 60 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...GSF
000
FXUS63 KDLH 170119
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
819 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN AS VERY DRY AIR WILL BE TOUGH
TO OVERCOME. OTHER MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 636 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
VFR AT THE OUTSET WITH CI SHIELD OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS WITH
SOME MID CLOUDS. APPEARS THE RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE BRD AREA BY
12Z WITH MVFR CIGS...THEN DLH/HYR AROUND 15Z AND HIB NEAR 17Z.
HAVE KEPT INL WITH VFR WHICH SHOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RAIN.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM.../NOW - FRIDAY/
THE FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH AN MCS.
THE MCS IS CURRENTLY NEAR SE SOUTH DAKOTA AND NE NEBRASKA WITH A
WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE
MODELS INDICATE...WITH VARYING DIFFERENCES...THAT THE MCS WILL
MOVE AND LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
US AMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE NAM/SREF/WRF-NMM TAKE THE
MCS MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...WHICH GENERALLY
BRING THE MCS ACROSS OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. I LEANED
ON THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...BUT INCORPORATED THE SREF AND NAM IN MY
BLEND...WHICH RESULTED IN INCREASING AND SPREADING POPS NORTHWARD.
I AM NOT CONVINCED ENOUGH OF THUNDER TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE THUNDER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE MCS.
THROUGH TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN
THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE MCS IN THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY MOVE AND LIFT NORTH
AND EAST TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS IOWA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE MCS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE MCS APPROACHES THE NORTHLAND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
FRIDAY...IT SHOULD AT LEAST BE A CLOUDY AND AND COOLER DAY ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND DUE TO THE APPROACHING MCS. I LOWERED TEMPERATURES
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE CLOUD
COVER INHIBITING WARMING. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH THE
MCS WILL LIFT. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY TAKE THE MCS NEAR OR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
GENERALLY MUCH FARTHER NORTH. I AM MORE APT TO BELIEVE IN THE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION DUE TO THE EXPECTED COOL EASTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL BE COMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...I DID INCREASE AND
SPREAD POPS NORTHWARD. SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA...IF THIS ENDS UP BEING THE TRACK OF THE MCS...COULD GET SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAIN...MAYBE UP TO A HALF INCH. I INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT I AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THUNDER FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN...COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATE FRI AND SAT WILL HELP ADVECT IN A WARM
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN MN LATE FRI NIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AND FOCUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH THE FRONT WILL LIFT. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS FAR NRN MN...AROUND OR JUST
NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE TO THE INTL BORDER. THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT WILL NOT ONLY DETERMINE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION...BUT ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING
TEMPERATURES SAT AND SUN. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING OR DRYING
OUT SOUTH OF THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG CAP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO JUMP HIGHER THAN FORECAST...AND ALSO BUILD
UP ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE STRONGER T-STORMS. NEED TO
MONITOR HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
WEEKEND.
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE PRESSURE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT TO THE NE THROUGH MN AND EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN
AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AROUND CENTRAL/SRN MN. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW A HEAVY AMT OF
MOISTURE TO CONTINUALLY BE PUMPED INTO THE REGION AND RESULT IN A
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. THE INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS. HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY...MOST OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY MOVES TO SE WITH THE
COLD CORE LOW AND LEAVES MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WITH SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMT OF RAINFALL...WHICH WOULD
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO POSSIBLE HYDRO CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WARM INLAND AND COOL NEAR THE LAKE
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...AND UPPER
50S/60S RESPECTIVELY. BUT QUICKLY COOL OFF LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 46 54 42 62 / 20 50 60 60
INL 46 67 47 61 / 20 20 50 60
BRD 48 62 51 76 / 50 60 60 70
HYR 47 58 48 73 / 20 70 60 50
ASX 41 56 45 67 / 10 60 60 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GSF
000
FXUS63 KDLH 162336
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
636 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...00Z TAFS.
VFR AT THE OUTSET WITH CI SHIELD OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS WITH
SOME MID CLOUDS. APPEARS THE RAIN WILL WORK INTO THE BRD AREA BY
12Z WITH MVFR CIGS...THEN DLH/HYR AROUND 15Z AND HIB NEAR 17Z.
HAVE KEPT INL WITH VFR WHICH SHOULD BE ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE RAIN.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM.../NOW - FRIDAY/
THE FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH AN MCS.
THE MCS IS CURRENTLY NEAR SE SOUTH DAKOTA AND NE NEBRASKA WITH A
WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE
MODELS INDICATE...WITH VARYING DIFFERENCES...THAT THE MCS WILL
MOVE AND LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
US AMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE NAM/SREF/WRF-NMM TAKE THE
MCS MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...WHICH GENERALLY
BRING THE MCS ACROSS OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. I LEANED
ON THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...BUT INCORPORATED THE SREF AND NAM IN MY
BLEND...WHICH RESULTED IN INCREASING AND SPREADING POPS NORTHWARD.
I AM NOT CONVINCED ENOUGH OF THUNDER TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE THUNDER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE MCS.
THROUGH TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN
THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE MCS IN THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY MOVE AND LIFT NORTH
AND EAST TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS IOWA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE MCS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE MCS APPROACHES THE NORTHLAND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
FRIDAY...IT SHOULD AT LEAST BE A CLOUDY AND AND COOLER DAY ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND DUE TO THE APPROACHING MCS. I LOWERED TEMPERATURES
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE CLOUD
COVER INHIBITING WARMING. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH THE
MCS WILL LIFT. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY TAKE THE MCS NEAR OR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
GENERALLY MUCH FARTHER NORTH. I AM MORE APT TO BELIEVE IN THE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION DUE TO THE EXPECTED COOL EASTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL BE COMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...I DID INCREASE AND
SPREAD POPS NORTHWARD. SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA...IF THIS ENDS UP BEING THE TRACK OF THE MCS...COULD GET SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAIN...MAYBE UP TO A HALF INCH. I INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT I AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THUNDER FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN...COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATE FRI AND SAT WILL HELP ADVECT IN A WARM
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN MN LATE FRI NIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AND FOCUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH THE FRONT WILL LIFT. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS FAR NRN MN...AROUND OR JUST
NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE TO THE INTL BORDER. THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT WILL NOT ONLY DETERMINE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION...BUT ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING
TEMPERATURES SAT AND SUN. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING OR DRYING
OUT SOUTH OF THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG CAP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO JUMP HIGHER THAN FORECAST...AND ALSO BUILD
UP ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE STRONGER T-STORMS. NEED TO
MONITOR HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
WEEKEND.
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE PRESSURE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT TO THE NE THROUGH MN AND EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN
AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AROUND CENTRAL/SRN MN. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW A HEAVY AMT OF
MOISTURE TO CONTINUALLY BE PUMPED INTO THE REGION AND RESULT IN A
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. THE INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS. HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY...MOST OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY MOVES TO SE WITH THE
COLD CORE LOW AND LEAVES MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WITH SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMT OF RAINFALL...WHICH WOULD
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO POSSIBLE HYDRO CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WARM INLAND AND COOL NEAR THE LAKE
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...AND UPPER
50S/60S RESPECTIVELY. BUT QUICKLY COOL OFF LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 42 54 42 62 / 10 50 60 60
INL 43 67 47 61 / 20 20 50 60
BRD 50 62 51 76 / 50 60 60 70
HYR 46 58 48 73 / 40 70 60 50
ASX 39 56 45 67 / 10 60 60 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...GSF
000
FXUS63 KDLH 162023
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
323 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SHORT TERM.../NOW - FRIDAY/
THE FOCUS IS ON THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH AN MCS.
THE MCS IS CURRENTLY NEAR SE SOUTH DAKOTA AND NE NEBRASKA WITH A
WARM FRONT STRETCHING FROM NEBRASKA TO SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THE
MODELS INDICATE...WITH VARYING DIFFERENCES...THAT THE MCS WILL
MOVE AND LIFT NORTH AND EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH AND THE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL
US AMPLIFIES AND LIFTS NORTHWARD. THE NAM/SREF/WRF-NMM TAKE THE
MCS MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS/GEM/ECWMF...WHICH GENERALLY
BRING THE MCS ACROSS OR NEAR THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA. I LEANED
ON THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF...BUT INCORPORATED THE SREF AND NAM IN MY
BLEND...WHICH RESULTED IN INCREASING AND SPREADING POPS NORTHWARD.
I AM NOT CONVINCED ENOUGH OF THUNDER TO INCLUDE IT IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE MAY BE A LITTLE THUNDER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO THE HEART OF THE MCS.
THROUGH TONIGHT...CLOUD COVER WILL INCREASE AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS IN
THE DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA SPREAD EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHLAND. THE MCS IN THE PLAINS WILL LIKELY MOVE AND LIFT NORTH
AND EAST TONIGHT AS THE WARM FRONT STRETCHING ACROSS IOWA AND
SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAIN SHOWERS FROM THE MCS AND
SHOWERS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA COULD BEGIN TO MOVE
INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA AROUND OR AFTER
MIDNIGHT. CHANCES WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD NORTH AND EASTWARD
THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE MCS APPROACHES THE NORTHLAND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE 40S TO NEAR 50 DEGREES WITH THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
FRIDAY...IT SHOULD AT LEAST BE A CLOUDY AND AND COOLER DAY ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND DUE TO THE APPROACHING MCS. I LOWERED TEMPERATURES
BASED ON THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF THE CLOUD
COVER INHIBITING WARMING. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAR NORTH THE
MCS WILL LIFT. THE GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY TAKE THE MCS NEAR OR
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST...WHILE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS
GENERALLY MUCH FARTHER NORTH. I AM MORE APT TO BELIEVE IN THE
SOUTHERN SOLUTION DUE TO THE EXPECTED COOL EASTERLY WINDS THAT
WILL BE COMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. HOWEVER...I DID INCREASE AND
SPREAD POPS NORTHWARD. SOME PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA...IF THIS ENDS UP BEING THE TRACK OF THE MCS...COULD GET SOME
SIGNIFICANT RAIN...MAYBE UP TO A HALF INCH. I INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...BUT I AM
NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH OF THUNDER FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA.
.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY/
THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN...COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL US LATE FRI AND SAT WILL HELP ADVECT IN A WARM
AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AN ASSOCIATED WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH CENTRAL/NRN MN LATE FRI NIGHT
AND THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY...AND FOCUS SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING HOW FAR
NORTH THE FRONT WILL LIFT. THERE IS A GENERAL CONSENSUS THAT THE
FRONT WILL STALL OUT SOMEWHERE ACROSS FAR NRN MN...AROUND OR JUST
NORTH OF THE IRON RANGE TO THE INTL BORDER. THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT WILL NOT ONLY DETERMINE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS AND
LOCATION...BUT ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR IN DETERMINING
TEMPERATURES SAT AND SUN. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CLEARING OR DRYING
OUT SOUTH OF THE FRONT DUE TO A STRONG CAP DURING THE MORNING
HOURS TO ALLOW TEMPS TO JUMP HIGHER THAN FORECAST...AND ALSO BUILD
UP ADDITIONAL INSTABILITY TO PRODUCE STRONGER T-STORMS. NEED TO
MONITOR HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE IN THE WARM SECTOR THIS
WEEKEND.
THE MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE PRESSURE
TROUGH/WARM FRONT TO THE NE THROUGH MN AND EVENTUALLY SLOW DOWN
AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY LATE THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AROUND CENTRAL/SRN MN. THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW A HEAVY AMT OF
MOISTURE TO CONTINUALLY BE PUMPED INTO THE REGION AND RESULT IN A
EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AND T-STORMS. THE INSTABILITY WILL
LINGER INTO MONDAY...ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR STORMS. HOWEVER BY
TUESDAY...MOST OF THE STRONGER INSTABILITY MOVES TO SE WITH THE
COLD CORE LOW AND LEAVES MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WITH SCT RAIN
SHOWERS. WITH THE RAIN CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT AMT OF RAINFALL...WHICH WOULD
EVENTUALLY LEAD TO POSSIBLE HYDRO CONCERNS.
TEMPERATURES WILL START OFF WARM INLAND AND COOL NEAR THE LAKE
EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S...AND UPPER
50S/60S RESPECTIVELY. BUT QUICKLY COOL OFF LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S AND 60S EARLY/MID NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
W/SW TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY RAIN SHOWERS BY FRI MORNING. E/NE
WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE E/SE FRI
MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY...UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE DAY. COULD BE
SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR FROM WEAK CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY AROUND BRD DLH AND HYR FRI MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH PERIODS OF LOW-END MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 42 54 42 62 / 10 50 60 60
INL 43 67 47 61 / 20 20 50 60
BRD 50 62 51 76 / 50 60 60 70
HYR 46 58 48 73 / 40 70 60 50
ASX 39 56 45 67 / 10 60 60 50
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM....TENTINGER
AVIATION...TENTINGER
000
FXUS63 KDLH 161749 AAB
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1249 PM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH AN AREA OF HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM
THE W/SW TONIGHT AND EVENTUALLY RAIN SHOWERS BY FRI MORNING. E/NE
WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT...WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE E/SE FRI
MORNING AND BECOME GUSTY...UP TO 20 KT THROUGH THE DAY. COULD BE
SOME AREAS OF LOCALIZED WIND SHEAR FROM WEAK CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY AROUND BRD DLH AND HYR FRI MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW WITH PERIODS OF LOW-END MVFR CIGS
POSSIBLE.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
UPDATE...
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FOCUS REMAINS
ON THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO HOW DRY IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY AND ONGOING WILDFIRES. TODAY THANKFULLY SHOULD HAVE
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN PAST DAYS...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
STILL BE LOW AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. I RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED OFF A BLEND OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT THAT WE HAVE BEEN
UNDERESTIMATING TEMPERATURES THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
THIS AFTERNOON...I WILL LOOK MORE INTO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THAT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPECTED WARM FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RIGHT NOW OUR
FORECAST ONLY HAS RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT I MAY NEED TO
ADD SOME THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT ALL TAFS SITES TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HYR AND BRD TAF SITES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES ARE
FOUND...TO THE 30S ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLR SKIES.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING...WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE
TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL /GENERALLY
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S/ FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KT AT THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PUSHING THE COOLER MARINE AIR WELL INLAND. ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 70S TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS.
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S WILL AGAIN BE FOUND THIS
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOWEST RH READINGS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND BORDERLAND ZONES WITH THE
HIGHER READINGS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.
THE H85 RIDGE AXIS CENTERS OVER
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...EXITING TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT/RAIN
INTO THE BORDERLAND ZONES FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS ALONG THE FAR NORTH...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR FOR THE SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND FOR THE
PRECIP EVENT...BUT THEY SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTION FOR
THE BEGINNING MONDAY. MODELS DO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW INTO
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
MINNESOTA AS INDICATED BY SPC OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS DIVERGE STARTING ON MONDAY
WITH THE CLOSED LOW SO THIS WILL DETERMINE THE PRECIP CONTINUES
INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE GFS SHOWS MORE RAINFALL THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH WED MORNING WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP CURRENT PRECIP
TRENDS WITH RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD HELP TO
ALLEVIATE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS THAT ARE OCCURRING AND SHOULD
HELP WITH THE GREEN-UP AND CUT DOWN ON THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES
FOR A WHILE.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 39 53 44 63 / 10 20 40 40
INL 42 68 47 65 / 10 10 50 50
BRD 48 66 55 74 / 20 50 50 40
HYR 44 65 52 72 / 20 40 30 30
ASX 37 60 46 65 / 10 20 40 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
AVIATION...TENTINGER
000
FXUS63 KDLH 161511
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1011 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.UPDATE...
THE FORECAST WAS UPDATED THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FOCUS REMAINS
ON THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS THE REGION DUE TO HOW DRY IT HAS
BEEN RECENTLY AND ONGOING WILDFIRES. TODAY THANKFULLY SHOULD HAVE
MUCH LIGHTER WINDS THAN PAST DAYS...BUT RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL
STILL BE LOW AROUND 20 TO 25 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
THIS AFTERNOON. I RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT BASED OFF A BLEND OF
THE LATEST GUIDANCE...AND THE FACT THAT WE HAVE BEEN
UNDERESTIMATING TEMPERATURES THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
THIS AFTERNOON...I WILL LOOK MORE INTO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA TONIGHT THAT WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH AN EXPECTED WARM FRONT SETTING UP ACROSS
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. RIGHT NOW OUR
FORECAST ONLY HAS RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT I MAY NEED TO
ADD SOME THUNDER TO THE FORECAST.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 641 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT ALL TAFS SITES TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE
AREA LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HYR AND BRD TAF SITES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES ARE
FOUND...TO THE 30S ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLR SKIES.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING...WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE
TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL /GENERALLY
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S/ FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KT AT THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PUSHING THE COOLER MARINE AIR WELL INLAND. ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 70S TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS.
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S WILL AGAIN BE FOUND THIS
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOWEST RH READINGS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND BORDERLAND ZONES WITH THE
HIGHER READINGS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.
THE H85 RIDGE AXIS CENTERS OVER
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...EXITING TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT/RAIN
INTO THE BORDERLAND ZONES FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS ALONG THE FAR NORTH...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR FOR THE SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND FOR THE
PRECIP EVENT...BUT THEY SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTION FOR
THE BEGINNING MONDAY. MODELS DO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW INTO
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
MINNESOTA AS INDICATED BY SPC OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS DIVERGE STARTING ON MONDAY
WITH THE CLOSED LOW SO THIS WILL DETERMINE THE PRECIP CONTINUES
INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE GFS SHOWS MORE RAINFALL THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH WED MORNING WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP CURRENT PRECIP
TRENDS WITH RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD HELP TO
ALLEVIATE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS THAT ARE OCCURRING AND SHOULD
HELP WITH THE GREEN-UP AND CUT DOWN ON THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES
FOR A WHILE.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 67 39 53 44 / 0 10 20 40
INL 71 42 68 47 / 10 10 10 50
BRD 77 48 66 55 / 10 20 50 50
HYR 77 44 65 52 / 10 20 40 30
ASX 65 37 60 46 / 0 10 20 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
000
FXUS63 KDLH 161141
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
641 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE AT ALL TAFS SITES TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILLAPPROACH THE AREA
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HYR AND
BRD TAF SITES WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT THE TAF SITES.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 322 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
SHORT TERM...
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES ARE
FOUND...TO THE 30S ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLR SKIES.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING...WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE
TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL /GENERALLY
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S/ FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KT AT THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PUSHING THE COOLER MARINE AIR WELL INLAND. ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 70S TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS.
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S WILL AGAIN BE FOUND THIS
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOWEST RH READINGS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND BORDERLAND ZONES WITH THE
HIGHER READINGS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.
THE H85 RIDGE AXIS CENTERS OVER
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...EXITING TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT/RAIN
INTO THE BORDERLAND ZONES FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS ALONG THE FAR NORTH...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA.
EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR FOR THE SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND FOR THE
PRECIP EVENT...BUT THEY SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTION FOR
THE BEGINNING MONDAY. MODELS DO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW INTO
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
MINNESOTA AS INDICATED BY SPC OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS DIVERGE STARTING ON MONDAY
WITH THE CLOSED LOW SO THIS WILL DETERMINE THE PRECIP CONTINUES
INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE GFS SHOWS MORE RAINFALL THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH WED MORNING WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP CURRENT PRECIP
TRENDS WITH RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD HELP TO
ALLEVIATE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS THAT ARE OCCURRING AND SHOULD
HELP WITH THE GREEN-UP AND CUT DOWN ON THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES
FOR A WHILE.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME MID CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN WELL INTO THE VFR CATEGORY.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 39 53 44 / 0 10 20 40
INL 70 42 68 47 / 10 10 10 50
BRD 76 48 66 55 / 10 20 50 50
HYR 75 44 65 52 / 0 20 40 30
ASX 62 37 60 46 / 0 10 20 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM....STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART
000
FXUS63 KDLH 160822
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.SHORT TERM...
CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S
OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN WHERE A FEW LINGERING SPRINKLES ARE
FOUND...TO THE 30S ALONG THE INTL BORDER WITH BUILDING HIGH
PRESSURE AND CLR SKIES.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN RESPONSE TO MID LEVEL RIDGING...WILL
STRENGTHEN OVER ONTARIO/LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY. EXPECT A LAKE BREEZE
TO DEVELOP BY MID MORNING...KEEPING TEMPERATURES COOL /GENERALLY
IN THE 50S TO LOW 60S/ FOR LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR. A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 10-15 KT AT THE WESTERN END OF LAKE
SUPERIOR...PUSHING THE COOLER MARINE AIR WELL INLAND. ELSEWHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 70S TODAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY
LESS THAN 10 KTS.
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 20S WILL AGAIN BE FOUND THIS
AFTERNOON INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. THE LOWEST RH READINGS
WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE IRON RANGE AND BORDERLAND ZONES WITH THE
HIGHER READINGS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA.
THE H85 RIDGE AXIS CENTERS OVER
WISCONSIN TONIGHT...EXITING TO THE EAST FRIDAY AS WARM FRONT
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER PLAINS. THIS FRONT WILL BECOME THE FOCUS
FOR RAIN...AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...OVER MUCH OF THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SMALL
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND THE NRN EXTENT OF THE WARM FRONT/RAIN
INTO THE BORDERLAND ZONES FRIDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE TRIMMED BACK
POPS ALONG THE FAR NORTH...WITH THE BEST CHC FOR RAIN FRIDAY
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA.
.EXTENDED...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...
MODELS ARE SIMILAR FOR THE SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND FOR THE
PRECIP EVENT...BUT THEY SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE SOLUTION FOR
THE BEGINNING MONDAY. MODELS DO SHOW INCREASING MOISTURE FLOW INTO
THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AS A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST
SATURDAY NIGHT. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF
MINNESOTA AS INDICATED BY SPC OUTLOOKS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CAUSE SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. THE MODELS DIVERGE STARTING ON MONDAY
WITH THE CLOSED LOW SO THIS WILL DETERMINE THE PRECIP CONTINUES
INTO LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THE GFS SHOWS MORE RAINFALL THAN THE ECMWF
THROUGH WED MORNING WITH THIS SYSTEM. WILL KEEP CURRENT PRECIP
TRENDS WITH RAIN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD HELP TO
ALLEVIATE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS THAT ARE OCCURRING AND SHOULD
HELP WITH THE GREEN-UP AND CUT DOWN ON THE THREAT FOR WILDFIRES
FOR A WHILE.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1226 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013/
AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME MID CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN WELL INTO THE VFR CATEGORY.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 61 39 53 44 / 0 10 20 40
INL 70 42 68 47 / 10 10 10 50
BRD 76 48 66 55 / 10 20 50 50
HYR 75 44 65 52 / 0 20 40 30
ASX 62 37 60 46 / 0 10 20 40
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM....STEWART
000
FXUS63 KDLH 160526
AFDDLH
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 AM CDT THU MAY 16 2013
.AVIATION.../06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD. SOME MID CLOUDS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TIME TO TIME...BUT IT
SHOULD REMAIN WELL INTO THE VFR CATEGORY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 701 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
AVIATION.../00Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING BUT
CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 320 PM CDT WED MAY 15 2013/
SHORT TERM.../NOW - TONIGHT/
THE FOCUS REMAINS THE ONGOING FIRE WEATHER THREAT ACROSS NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN DUE TO THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS AND
VERY DRY HUMIDITY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT ACROSS
MOST OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD...AND AN AIR QUALITY ALERT WAS
ISSUED EARLIER TODAY FOR DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD COUNTIES DUE TO THE
LARGE GERMANN ROAD FIRE IN NW WISCONSIN.
THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING.
A SHORTWAVE CUTTING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL PROMOTE
SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUD COVER ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH THIS EVENING...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS.
THE LATEST HRRR/NAM12/SREF MODELS SUGGESTED THIS PCPN
EARLIER...AND I MAINTAINED THE HOURLY TIMING OF THE SCATTERED
PCPN THROUGH THIS EVENING. IT APPEARS THE CURRENT LIGHT SHOWERS IN
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL SPREAD AND MOVE SOUTHWARD THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE DISSIPATING AROUND MIDNIGHT. I KEPT THE FORECAST AS
SCATTERED SPRINKLES BECAUSE MOST OF THE PCPN SHOULD EVAPORATE
BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND BECAUSE OF THE DRY CONDITIONS NEAR THE
SURFACE. THERE IS A REMOTE THREAT OF THUNDER WITH THESE SHOWERS
THAT WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE GIVEN THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT.
THE CAPE ON SPC MESOANALYSIS HAS BEEN CONSISENTLY VERY MINIMAL
AROUND 100 J/KG OR LESS...AND THE MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL REMAIN
THIS WAY. NONETHELESS...THERE COULD BE A STRAY STORM.
LATE TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION.
THE WINDS WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT OR NEARLY CALM. THIS...AND
HUMIDITY RECOVERY...WILL HELP THE FIRE WEATHER SITUATION.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 40 DEGREES ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA.
LONG TERM.../THURSDAY - TUESDAY/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON THURSDAY WILL BEGIN
TO AMPLIFY AS A TROUGH DIGS INTO THE WEST COAST AND SRN ROCKIES
EARLY THIS WEEKEND. A SERIES OF WEAK EMBEDDED SHRT WVS WILL EJECT
EWD OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND INTERACT WITH THE WARM MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. MOST OF THIS
ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. HOWEVER...BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR STORMS COULD MOVE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SW. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FORCING WILL ARRIVE WITH
THE MAIN 500MB TROUGH AXIS ON SAT AND SUN...WITH BETTER CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE LOW THEN BECOMES CLOSED AND SOMEWHAT
CUT OFF FROM THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN ON MONDAY. HOWEVER...THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE POSITION OF THE LOW AND
ITS SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. PARTS OF THE
UPPER MIDWEST COULD POTENTIALLY SEE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK. WILL NEED TO KEEP
A WATCH ON THE TRENDS OF THIS PATTERN. A PERSISTENT E/NE WIND AND
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE NORTHLAND WILL KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION
RATHER CHILLY...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE.
INLAND AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S AND 70S.
WHILE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR... INCLUDING THE TWIN PORTS...HIGHS
WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.
AVIATION.../18Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CU-FIELD DEVELOPING LATE MORNING WILL PERSIST AND INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND. WINDS
COULD BECOME LOCALLY GUSTY AROUND HEAVIER ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS.
SKIES WILL SCATTER OUT THIS EVENING AND CLEAR OUT BY THURSDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NE LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING.
&&
.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH 44 57 44 63 / 10 20 40 40
INL 45 67 47 65 / 10 30 50 50
BRD 51 68 55 74 / 20 50 50 40
HYR 47 67 52 72 / 10 30 30 30
ASX 42 61 46 65 / 10 20 40 30
&&
.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM....STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART
| 
