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000
FXUS63 KDLH 011413
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
913 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
SHOULD EXIT THE FA BY 16Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET THIS MORNING
AS ONE MORE WEAK VORT MAX MOVES OVER THE FA. TRENDED DOWN THE POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS FILTERS OVER THE AREA. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING EXIT OF COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...AND
AREAS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
EXTENDING FROM THE TIP OF THE MINN ARROWHEAD...SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. AS OF 300 AM...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED
FROM GENERALLY 1/2 TO 1" OVER MUCH OF NRN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
LOCALS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 2". THE GREATEST RAINFALL WAS FOUND
OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...WASHBURN COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN
SAWYER COUNTY. MOST OF NE MINN HAS RECEIVED A TENTH TO A HALF INCH
OF RAIN SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST TOTALS IN MN WERE
AROUND AN INCH...AND FOUND IN THE AITKIN/MILLE LACS AREA...AS WELL
AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT THIS TIME...THE DULUTH
AIRPORT HAS BEEN MISSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS AND HAS REPORTED
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A DRIER AIRMASS...WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS...WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 800
MB...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT...AND DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM RH VALUES TO
AROUND 40-45% IN MOST AREAS TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE IRON RANGE/CHIPPEWA NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEEING AFTERNOON RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S.

HAVE KEPT BROAD BRUSH 20 POPS FOR A STRAY SHOWER/TSTM OVERNIGHT AS
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PRIOR TO THE STRONGER TROUGHS ARRIVAL. WE HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF POPS THEN INCREASE THEM QUITE A BIT MID WEEK.

WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
STABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND.
FORCING...STABILITY AND SHEAR ALL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z FRI...THEN CLEAR THE AREA DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
AND AN UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH...THEN WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES TO AROUND
80...THEN DROP INTO 60S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG IT. WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

CEILINGS HAVE VARIED FROM IFR TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF STEADY RAIN AND FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS...BUT THEY
SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND
CEILINGS FROM 3500-5000FT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CU
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND BRING A PERIOD OF LOW VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE A
FEW SHOWERS TO MOST TAF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  53  74  55 /  30  20  30  10
INL  68  47  73  53 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  72  52  76  56 /  10  20  20  10
HYR  71  51  75  54 /  90  20  20  10
ASX  71  53  76  56 /  90  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 011413
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
913 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS QUICKLY MOVING OFF TO THE EAST.
SHOULD EXIT THE FA BY 16Z. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET THIS MORNING
AS ONE MORE WEAK VORT MAX MOVES OVER THE FA. TRENDED DOWN THE POPS
FOR THE REST OF THE DAY. REMOVED THE MENTION OF THUNDER AS A MORE
STABLE AIRMASS FILTERS OVER THE AREA. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING EXIT OF COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...AND
AREAS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
EXTENDING FROM THE TIP OF THE MINN ARROWHEAD...SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. AS OF 300 AM...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED
FROM GENERALLY 1/2 TO 1" OVER MUCH OF NRN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
LOCALS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 2". THE GREATEST RAINFALL WAS FOUND
OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...WASHBURN COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN
SAWYER COUNTY. MOST OF NE MINN HAS RECEIVED A TENTH TO A HALF INCH
OF RAIN SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST TOTALS IN MN WERE
AROUND AN INCH...AND FOUND IN THE AITKIN/MILLE LACS AREA...AS WELL
AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT THIS TIME...THE DULUTH
AIRPORT HAS BEEN MISSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS AND HAS REPORTED
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A DRIER AIRMASS...WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS...WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 800
MB...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT...AND DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM RH VALUES TO
AROUND 40-45% IN MOST AREAS TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE IRON RANGE/CHIPPEWA NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEEING AFTERNOON RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S.

HAVE KEPT BROAD BRUSH 20 POPS FOR A STRAY SHOWER/TSTM OVERNIGHT AS
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PRIOR TO THE STRONGER TROUGHS ARRIVAL. WE HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF POPS THEN INCREASE THEM QUITE A BIT MID WEEK.

WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
STABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND.
FORCING...STABILITY AND SHEAR ALL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z FRI...THEN CLEAR THE AREA DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
AND AN UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH...THEN WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES TO AROUND
80...THEN DROP INTO 60S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG IT. WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

CEILINGS HAVE VARIED FROM IFR TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF STEADY RAIN AND FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS...BUT THEY
SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND
CEILINGS FROM 3500-5000FT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CU
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND BRING A PERIOD OF LOW VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE A
FEW SHOWERS TO MOST TAF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  53  74  55 /  30  20  30  10
INL  68  47  73  53 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  72  52  76  56 /  10  20  20  10
HYR  71  51  75  54 /  90  20  20  10
ASX  71  53  76  56 /  90  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 011134
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
634 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING EXIT OF COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...AND
AREAS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
EXTENDING FROM THE TIP OF THE MINN ARROWHEAD...SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. AS OF 300 AM...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED
FROM GENERALLY 1/2 TO 1" OVER MUCH OF NRN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
LOCALS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 2". THE GREATEST RAINFALL WAS FOUND
OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...WASHBURN COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN
SAWYER COUNTY. MOST OF NE MINN HAS RECEIVED A TENTH TO A HALF INCH
OF RAIN SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST TOTALS IN MN WERE
AROUND AN INCH...AND FOUND IN THE AITKIN/MILLE LACS AREA...AS WELL
AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT THIS TIME...THE DULUTH
AIRPORT HAS BEEN MISSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS AND HAS REPORTED
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A DRIER AIRMASS...WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS...WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 800
MB...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT...AND DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM RH VALUES TO
AROUND 40-45% IN MOST AREAS TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE IRON RANGE/CHIPPEWA NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEEING AFTERNOON RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S.

HAVE KEPT BROADBRUSH 20 POPS FOR A STRAY SHOWER/TSTM OVERNIGHT AS
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PRIOR TO THE STRONGER TROUGHS ARRIVAL. WE HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF POPS THEN INCREASE THEM QUITE A BIT MID WEEK.

WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
STABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND.
FORCING...STABILITY AND SHEAR ALL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z FRI...THEN CLEAR THE AREA DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
AND AN UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH...THEN WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES TO AROUND
80...THEN DROP INTO 60S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG IT. WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

CEILINGS HAVE VARIED FROM IFR TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF STEADY RAIN AND FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS...BUT THEY
SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND
CEILINGS FROM 3500-5000FT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CU
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND BRING A PERIOD OF LOW VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE A
FEW SHOWERS TO MOST TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  53  74  55 /  30  20  30  10
INL  69  47  73  53 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  73  52  76  56 /  20  20  20  10
HYR  74  51  75  54 /  80  20  20  10
ASX  74  53  76  56 /  80  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 011134
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
634 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING EXIT OF COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...AND
AREAS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
EXTENDING FROM THE TIP OF THE MINN ARROWHEAD...SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. AS OF 300 AM...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED
FROM GENERALLY 1/2 TO 1" OVER MUCH OF NRN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
LOCALS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 2". THE GREATEST RAINFALL WAS FOUND
OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...WASHBURN COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN
SAWYER COUNTY. MOST OF NE MINN HAS RECEIVED A TENTH TO A HALF INCH
OF RAIN SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST TOTALS IN MN WERE
AROUND AN INCH...AND FOUND IN THE AITKIN/MILLE LACS AREA...AS WELL
AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT THIS TIME...THE DULUTH
AIRPORT HAS BEEN MISSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS AND HAS REPORTED
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A DRIER AIRMASS...WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS...WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 800
MB...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT...AND DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM RH VALUES TO
AROUND 40-45% IN MOST AREAS TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE IRON RANGE/CHIPPEWA NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEEING AFTERNOON RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S.

HAVE KEPT BROADBRUSH 20 POPS FOR A STRAY SHOWER/TSTM OVERNIGHT AS
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND INCREASING MOISTURE.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PRIOR TO THE STRONGER TROUGHS ARRIVAL. WE HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF POPS THEN INCREASE THEM QUITE A BIT MID WEEK.

WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
STABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND.
FORCING...STABILITY AND SHEAR ALL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z FRI...THEN CLEAR THE AREA DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
AND AN UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH...THEN WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES TO AROUND
80...THEN DROP INTO 60S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A COLD FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA INTO
WESTERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG IT. WINDS WILL BE SWITCHING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

CEILINGS HAVE VARIED FROM IFR TO VFR ACROSS THE NORTHLAND AND THAT
WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING. AREAS OF STEADY RAIN AND FAR NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WILL BE MOST LIKELY TO SEE MVFR/IFR CEILINGS...BUT THEY
SHOULD RISE THROUGH THE DAY. WE EXPECT CU DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND
CEILINGS FROM 3500-5000FT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CU
SHOULD DISSIPATE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. HOWEVER...ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND BRING A PERIOD OF LOW VFR CEILINGS AND POSSIBLE A
FEW SHOWERS TO MOST TAF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  53  74  55 /  30  20  30  10
INL  69  47  73  53 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  73  52  76  56 /  20  20  20  10
HYR  74  51  75  54 /  80  20  20  10
ASX  74  53  76  56 /  80  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 010822
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING EXIT OF COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...AND
AREAS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
EXTENDING FROM THE TIP OF THE MINN ARROWHEAD...SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. AS OF 300 AM...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED
FROM GENERALLY 1/2 TO 1" OVER MUCH OF NRN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
LOCALS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 2". THE GREATEST RAINFALL WAS FOUND
OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...WASHBURN COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN
SAWYER COUNTY. MOST OF NE MINN HAS RECEIVED A TENTH TO A HALF INCH
OF RAIN SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST TOTALS IN MN WERE
AROUND AN INCH...AND FOUND IN THE AITKIN/MILLE LACS AREA...AS WELL
AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT THIS TIME...THE DULUTH
AIRPORT HAS BEEN MISSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS AND HAS REPORTED
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A DRIER AIRMASS...WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS...WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 800
MB...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT...AND DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM RH VALUES TO
AROUND 40-45% IN MOST AREAS TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE IRON RANGE/CHIPPEWA NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEEING AFTERNOON RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S.

HAVE KEPT BROADBRUSH 20 POPS FOR A STRAY SHOWER/TSTM OVERNIGHT AS
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND INCREASING MOISTURE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PRIOR TO THE STRONGER TROUGHS ARRIVAL. WE HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF POPS THEN INCREASE THEM QUITE A BIT MID WEEK.

WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
STABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND.
FORCING...STABILITY AND SHEAR ALL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z FRI...THEN CLEAR THE AREA DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
AND AN UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH...THEN WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES TO AROUND
80...THEN DROP INTO 60S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE TAF SITES BEGINNING AT 08Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER 12Z AND BY
19Z LOW END VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY AFTER
15Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 01Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL AERODROMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  53  74  55 /  40  20  30  10
INL  69  47  73  53 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  73  52  76  56 /  20  20  20  10
HYR  74  51  75  54 /  90  20  20  10
ASX  74  53  76  56 /  80  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...KK








000
FXUS63 KDLH 010822
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SHORT TERM ADJUSTMENTS FOR TIMING EXIT OF COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED PRECIP THIS MORNING. LINGERING SHOWERS/ISOLD STORMS
WILL BE CONFINED TO THE EASTERN TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...AND
AREAS IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH THE NOON HOUR.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDESPREAD RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER
EXTENDING FROM THE TIP OF THE MINN ARROWHEAD...SOUTH OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO EAST-CENTRAL MN.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS VARY GREATLY DUE TO THE SCATTERED NATURE OF THE
CONVECTION. AS OF 300 AM...RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL TOTALS RANGED
FROM GENERALLY 1/2 TO 1" OVER MUCH OF NRN WISCONSIN...WITH SOME
LOCALS RECEIVING IN EXCESS OF 2". THE GREATEST RAINFALL WAS FOUND
OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY...WASHBURN COUNTY...AND SOUTHERN
SAWYER COUNTY. MOST OF NE MINN HAS RECEIVED A TENTH TO A HALF INCH
OF RAIN SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GREATEST TOTALS IN MN WERE
AROUND AN INCH...AND FOUND IN THE AITKIN/MILLE LACS AREA...AS WELL
AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MN ARROWHEAD. AT THIS TIME...THE DULUTH
AIRPORT HAS BEEN MISSED BY THE STRONGER STORMS AND HAS REPORTED
LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH.

A DRIER AIRMASS...WITH FALLING H85 TEMPS...WILL SETTLE OVER THE
REGION TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE EXITING COLD FRONT. THE INCREASED
LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE AFTERNOON MIXING TO AROUND 800
MB...RESULTING IN GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT...AND DEW
POINTS FALLING INTO THE 40S. HAVE LOWERED MINIMUM RH VALUES TO
AROUND 40-45% IN MOST AREAS TODAY. A FEW LOCATIONS...MAINLY ACROSS
THE IRON RANGE/CHIPPEWA NATIONAL FOREST MAY SEEING AFTERNOON RH
VALUES IN THE UPPER 30S.

HAVE KEPT BROADBRUSH 20 POPS FOR A STRAY SHOWER/TSTM OVERNIGHT AS
THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER A WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW...WITH
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES AND INCREASING MOISTURE.


.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE NORTHLAND EARLY IN THE
PERIOD WITH A TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE NORTHLAND MID TO LATE WEEK. AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE ALONG WITH THE
TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
MAINLY ZONAL FLOW PRIOR TO THE STRONGER TROUGHS ARRIVAL. WE HAVE
SEVERAL PERIODS OF POPS THEN INCREASE THEM QUITE A BIT MID WEEK.

WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL STRENGTHEN WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
THE FLOW BACKS AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH. PWAT VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO RISE TO 1 TO 1.6 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA BY 00Z THURSDAY. THE
STABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO DROP WEDNESDAY AND REMAIN QUITE
UNSTABLE INTO THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BECOME LIKELY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS THE
SURFACE LOW AND UPPER WAVE MOVE INTO THE NORTHLAND.
FORCING...STABILITY AND SHEAR ALL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD
MOVE INTO OUR EASTERN ZONES BY 00Z FRI...THEN CLEAR THE AREA DURING
THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY WITH COLDER TEMPS ALOFT
AND AN UPPER WAVE PASSING THROUGH...THEN WE HAVE A DRY FORECAST FOR
THE WEEKEND.

HIGHS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE SEVENTIES TO AROUND
80...THEN DROP INTO 60S FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE TAF SITES BEGINNING AT 08Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER 12Z AND BY
19Z LOW END VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY AFTER
15Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 01Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL AERODROMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  74  53  74  55 /  40  20  30  10
INL  69  47  73  53 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  73  52  76  56 /  20  20  20  10
HYR  74  51  75  54 /  90  20  20  10
ASX  74  53  76  56 /  80  20  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...KK







000
FXUS63 KDLH 010523
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN SFC LOW CENTER AT 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR HCO IN NW MN. PREFRONTAL
TROF EXTENDED SW THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND APPEARS TO HAVE
JUST PASSED THROUGH BWP. ACTUAL COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED GFK AND
BAC IN ND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA AND HAS KEPT A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. LATEST RUC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD
WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY TO
NEAR STC AT 19Z. LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY THAT THIS
LINE WAS PRODUCING A FEW HOURS AGO. GOOD SHOT OF WAA NOT ARRIVING
OVER THE FA AND HAS BEGUN TO TRANSLATE TO THE SFC AS WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH. MARINE LAYER EXTENDS FROM NEAR COQ TO THE TWIN
PORTS AND UP THE NORTH SHORE INLAND TO EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY AT
19Z. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...HAVE POPS ACROSS THE
FA TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY STORMS INTO THE FA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL A QUESTION MARK ATTM AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. BY THEN...DIURNAL HEATING IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND MAY PLAY A ROLE IN FORMATION. WILL EAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE WORDING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT HOWEVER BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z PER LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS. THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS WILL
END BY 03Z AND THEN JUST TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH FLOODING
EVEN WITH THE SATURATED SOILS. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS WILL BE IN NW WI
WHERE SANDY SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE WATER. RIVER
LEVELS ARE LOW AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAIN EVENT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NW WI WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON. GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE STORMS PERCOLATING
IN THE MORNING WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE E IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD HAS LOW CHANCES OF PCPN DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF ONE OR TWO SUBTLE TROUGHS. HOWEVER...WE MIGHT
BE ABLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TO DRY WITH TIME. THE MODEL PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY LITTLE AND PRIMARILY ONLY SHOWN BY THE GFS AND
GEM. THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH IN THE ECMWF...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY.

MORE MOIST SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WHICH LOOKS STORMY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND/OR NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN...WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
GETTING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND.

WHILE MUCH OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S...BUT COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

THERE MIGHT BE LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE TAF SITES BEGINNING AT 08Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER 12Z AND BY
19Z LOW END VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY AFTER
15Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 01Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL AERODROMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  73  55  76 /  20  30  10  30
INL  48  73  51  76 /  20  30  30  20
BRD  53  76  56  80 /  20  20  10  40
HYR  52  75  56  80 /  10  20  10  30
ASX  53  75  56  78 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...KK







000
FXUS63 KDLH 010523
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN SFC LOW CENTER AT 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR HCO IN NW MN. PREFRONTAL
TROF EXTENDED SW THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND APPEARS TO HAVE
JUST PASSED THROUGH BWP. ACTUAL COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED GFK AND
BAC IN ND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA AND HAS KEPT A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. LATEST RUC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD
WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY TO
NEAR STC AT 19Z. LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY THAT THIS
LINE WAS PRODUCING A FEW HOURS AGO. GOOD SHOT OF WAA NOT ARRIVING
OVER THE FA AND HAS BEGUN TO TRANSLATE TO THE SFC AS WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH. MARINE LAYER EXTENDS FROM NEAR COQ TO THE TWIN
PORTS AND UP THE NORTH SHORE INLAND TO EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY AT
19Z. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...HAVE POPS ACROSS THE
FA TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY STORMS INTO THE FA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL A QUESTION MARK ATTM AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. BY THEN...DIURNAL HEATING IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND MAY PLAY A ROLE IN FORMATION. WILL EAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE WORDING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT HOWEVER BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z PER LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS. THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS WILL
END BY 03Z AND THEN JUST TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH FLOODING
EVEN WITH THE SATURATED SOILS. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS WILL BE IN NW WI
WHERE SANDY SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE WATER. RIVER
LEVELS ARE LOW AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAIN EVENT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NW WI WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON. GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE STORMS PERCOLATING
IN THE MORNING WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE E IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD HAS LOW CHANCES OF PCPN DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF ONE OR TWO SUBTLE TROUGHS. HOWEVER...WE MIGHT
BE ABLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TO DRY WITH TIME. THE MODEL PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY LITTLE AND PRIMARILY ONLY SHOWN BY THE GFS AND
GEM. THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH IN THE ECMWF...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY.

MORE MOIST SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WHICH LOOKS STORMY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND/OR NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN...WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
GETTING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND.

WHILE MUCH OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S...BUT COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

THERE MIGHT BE LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1223 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR CONDITIONS BY 08Z.
IFR CEILINGS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE TAF SITES BEGINNING AT 08Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z. CEILINGS WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AFTER 12Z AND BY
19Z LOW END VFR CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED. LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL
STRENGTHEN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS MONDAY AFTER
15Z. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AGAIN AFTER 01Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL AERODROMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  73  55  76 /  20  30  10  30
INL  48  73  51  76 /  20  30  30  20
BRD  53  76  56  80 /  20  20  10  40
HYR  52  75  56  80 /  10  20  10  30
ASX  53  75  56  78 /  10  20  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...KK








000
FXUS63 KDLH 312325 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN SFC LOW CENTER AT 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR HCO IN NW MN. PREFRONTAL
TROF EXTENDED SW THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND APPEARS TO HAVE
JUST PASSED THROUGH BWP. ACTUAL COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED GFK AND
BAC IN ND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA AND HAS KEPT A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. LATEST RUC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD
WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY TO
NEAR STC AT 19Z. LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY THAT THIS
LINE WAS PRODUCING A FEW HOURS AGO. GOOD SHOT OF WAA NOT ARRIVING
OVER THE FA AND HAS BEGUN TO TRANSLATE TO THE SFC AS WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH. MARINE LAYER EXTENDS FROM NEAR COQ TO THE TWIN
PORTS AND UP THE NORTH SHORE INLAND TO EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY AT
19Z. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...HAVE POPS ACROSS THE
FA TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY STORMS INTO THE FA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL A QUESTION MARK ATTM AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. BY THEN...DIURNAL HEATING IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND MAY PLAY A ROLE IN FORMATION. WILL EAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE WORDING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT HOWEVER BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z PER LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS. THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS WILL
END BY 03Z AND THEN JUST TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH FLOODING
EVEN WITH THE SATURATED SOILS. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS WILL BE IN NW WI
WHERE SANDY SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE WATER. RIVER
LEVELS ARE LOW AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAIN EVENT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NW WI WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON. GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE STORMS PERCOLATING
IN THE MORNING WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE E IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD HAS LOW CHANCES OF PCPN DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF ONE OR TWO SUBTLE TROUGHS. HOWEVER...WE MIGHT
BE ABLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TO DRY WITH TIME. THE MODEL PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY LITTLE AND PRIMARILY ONLY SHOWN BY THE GFS AND
GEM. THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH IN THE ECMWF...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY.

MORE MOIST SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WHICH LOOKS STORMY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND/OR NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN...WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
GETTING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND.

WHILE MUCH OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S...BUT COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

THERE MIGHT BE LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD MVFR/VFR CIGS BETWEEN
2500 AND 4000 FT AND SOUTHERLY WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING. A COLD
FRONT WAS MOVING EAST THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MINNESOTA...AND THERE WAS A LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. THE LINE OF STORMS WAS AFFECTING THE KINL AND KBRD
TERMINALS. THERE WAS ALSO A STORM SOUTH OF DULUTH AND MOVING
NORTH AND APPROACHING THE KDLH TERMINAL.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST THIS
EVENING...AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE KHIB/KDLH/KHYR
AREAS. THE STORMS COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS. THERE THE
KHYR ARE HAS A LOW RISK OF SEEING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH
LARGE HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.

AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT...RAIN AND LOW CIGS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE REGION. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH A TREND TOWARDS WIDESPREAD
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND/OR VSBYS FROM BR/FG. THE WINDS WILL BECOME VERY
LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WHICH WILL HELP AID THE FORMATION OF BR/FG.

THE KHYR WILL SEE A SHORT PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR ISSUES EARLY
TONIGHT DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 30 TO 40 KNOTS WINDS ALOFT
BELOW 2 KFT AND WEAK WIND NEAR THE SURFACE.

WEST TO WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP
LIFT AND SCATTER THE LOW CIGS. MUCH OF THE REGION SHOULD SEE VFR
CIGS DEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING. THE RAIN AND LOW CIGS WILL
LIKELY LINGER THE LONGEST OVER NW WISCONSIN...INCLUDING KHYR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  70  53  73 /  70  30  20  30
INL  56  69  48  73 /  50  20  20  30
BRD  60  72  53  76 /  30  10  20  20
HYR  64  72  52  75 /  90  40  10  20
ASX  64  73  53  75 /  90  40  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 312019
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
319 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN SFC LOW CENTER AT 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR HCO IN NW MN. PREFRONTAL
TROF EXTENDED SW THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND APPEARS TO HAVE
JUST PASSED THROUGH BWP. ACTUAL COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED GFK AND
BAC IN ND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA AND HAS KEPT A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. LATEST RUC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD
WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY TO
NEAR STC AT 19Z. LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY THAT THIS
LINE WAS PRODUCING A FEW HOURS AGO. GOOD SHOT OF WAA NOT ARRIVING
OVER THE FA AND HAS BEGUN TO TRANSLATE TO THE SFC AS WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH. MARINE LAYER EXTENDS FROM NEAR COQ TO THE TWIN
PORTS AND UP THE NORTH SHORE INLAND TO EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY AT
19Z. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...HAVE POPS ACROSS THE
FA TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY STORMS INTO THE FA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL A QUESTION MARK ATTM AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. BY THEN...DIURNAL HEATING IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND MAY PLAY A ROLE IN FORMATION. WILL EAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE WORDING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT HOWEVER BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z PER LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS. THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS WILL
END BY 03Z AND THEN JUST TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH FLOODING
EVEN WITH THE SATURATED SOILS. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS WILL BE IN NW WI
WHERE SANDY SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE WATER. RIVER
LEVELS ARE LOW AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAIN EVENT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NW WI WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON. GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE STORMS PERCOLATING
IN THE MORNING WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE E IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD HAS LOW CHANCES OF PCPN DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF ONE OR TWO SUBTLE TROUGHS. HOWEVER...WE MIGHT
BE ABLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TO DRY WITH TIME. THE MODEL PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY LITTLE AND PRIMARILY ONLY SHOWN BY THE GFS AND
GEM. THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH IN THE ECMWF...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY.

MORE MOIST SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WHICH LOOKS STORMY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND/OR NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN...WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
GETTING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND.

WHILE MUCH OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S...BUT COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

THERE MIGHT BE LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND GUSTY SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE NORTHLAND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS IT
AHEAD OF AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE SHOULD BE TRANSITION TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. THE GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE...PRIMARILY TO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...TONIGHT DUE REDEVELOPING LOW CLOUD
COVER...MIST/FOG...AND ONGOING -SHRA. THE -TSRA COULD CONTINUE FOR
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT I ONLY FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE -TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
CONDITIONS TO QUALIFY FOR ADDING WIND SHEAR INTO THE FORECAST...SO
I ADDED A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FOR KHYR AS AN INITIAL STEP. WE
MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO KDLH/KHIB DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
WITH WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  70  53  73 /  70  30  20  30
INL  56  69  48  73 /  50  20  20  30
BRD  60  72  53  76 /  30  10  20  20
HYR  64  72  52  75 /  90  40  10  20
ASX  64  73  53  75 /  90  40  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 312019
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
319 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MAIN SFC LOW CENTER AT 19Z WAS LOCATED NEAR HCO IN NW MN. PREFRONTAL
TROF EXTENDED SW THROUGH THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND APPEARS TO HAVE
JUST PASSED THROUGH BWP. ACTUAL COLD FRONT HAS JUST PASSED GFK AND
BAC IN ND. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN HOLDING TOUGH THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE FA AND HAS KEPT A STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE. LATEST RUC
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT INSTABILITY IS STARTING TO CREEP UPWARD
WITH MUCAPE APPROACHING 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN EDGE OF
THE FA. LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY TO
NEAR STC AT 19Z. LIGHTNING HAS DIMINISHED CONSIDERABLY THAT THIS
LINE WAS PRODUCING A FEW HOURS AGO. GOOD SHOT OF WAA NOT ARRIVING
OVER THE FA AND HAS BEGUN TO TRANSLATE TO THE SFC AS WINDS BEGIN TO
TURN TO THE SOUTH. MARINE LAYER EXTENDS FROM NEAR COQ TO THE TWIN
PORTS AND UP THE NORTH SHORE INLAND TO EASTERN ST. LOUIS COUNTY AT
19Z. THIS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE POTENTIAL FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. REGARDLESS...HAVE POPS ACROSS THE
FA TONIGHT AS IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO TIME ANY STORMS INTO THE FA.
SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL A QUESTION MARK ATTM AS BEST UPPER SUPPORT
DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL NEAR 00Z. BY THEN...DIURNAL HEATING IS
BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AND MAY PLAY A ROLE IN FORMATION. WILL EAVE
OUT THE MENTION OF SEVERE WORDING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME
MORE PROMINENT HOWEVER BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z PER LATEST SHORT TERM
HIRES MODELS. THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST THAT STRONGEST STORMS WILL
END BY 03Z AND THEN JUST TRANSITION TO MORE OF A MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN EVENT WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. PWATS ARE FORECAST TO
GENERALLY BE AROUND 1.5 INCHES AND NOT EXPECTING ANY FLASH FLOODING
EVEN WITH THE SATURATED SOILS. HIGHEST QPF TOTALS WILL BE IN NW WI
WHERE SANDY SOILS WILL BE ABLE TO ABSORB MUCH OF THE WATER. RIVER
LEVELS ARE LOW AND SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE THIS RAIN EVENT.

ON MONDAY...THE COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH NW WI WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE MORNING...DIMINISHING FROM W TO E IN THE
AFTERNOON. GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO KEEP THE STORMS PERCOLATING
IN THE MORNING WHICH MOVES OFF TO THE E IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE POPS
TRENDING DOWNWARD THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY AS WEAK RIDGING MOVES OVER
THE FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD HAS LOW CHANCES OF PCPN DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL PASSAGE OF ONE OR TWO SUBTLE TROUGHS. HOWEVER...WE MIGHT
BE ABLE TO ADJUST THE FORECAST TO DRY WITH TIME. THE MODEL PCPN
MONDAY NIGHT IS VERY LITTLE AND PRIMARILY ONLY SHOWN BY THE GFS AND
GEM. THE LOW PCPN CHANCES IN THE FORECAST FOR DAYTIME TUESDAY IS
PRIMARILY DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK TROUGH IN THE ECMWF...WHILE
THE GFS AND GEM ARE DRY.

MORE MOIST SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD CAUSE
SOME SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT ABOUT THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK...WHICH LOOKS STORMY. A WARM FRONT WILL LIKELY INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST AND/OR NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT RAIN...WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY
GETTING A QUARTER TO HALF INCH.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND PRONOUNCED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHLAND.

WHILE MUCH OF THE WEEK SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL...SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG COLD
FRONT THURSDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 60S...BUT COULD BE LOWER DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER.

THERE MIGHT BE LINGERING SHOWERS FRIDAY...OTHERWISE THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND GUSTY SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE NORTHLAND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS IT
AHEAD OF AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE SHOULD BE TRANSITION TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. THE GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE...PRIMARILY TO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...TONIGHT DUE REDEVELOPING LOW CLOUD
COVER...MIST/FOG...AND ONGOING -SHRA. THE -TSRA COULD CONTINUE FOR
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT I ONLY FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE -TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
CONDITIONS TO QUALIFY FOR ADDING WIND SHEAR INTO THE FORECAST...SO
I ADDED A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FOR KHYR AS AN INITIAL STEP. WE
MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO KDLH/KHIB DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
WITH WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  70  53  73 /  70  30  20  30
INL  56  69  48  73 /  50  20  20  30
BRD  60  72  53  76 /  30  10  20  20
HYR  64  72  52  75 /  90  40  10  20
ASX  64  73  53  75 /  90  40  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 311750
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA ALONG AN H85 FRONTOGENESIS AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
RADAR AND SATELLITE REVEAL OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS TRYING TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE ATTM. LINE OF
STORMS FROM NEAR STC TO SW MN WILL BEAR WATCHING AS IT CONTINUES
TO PUSH NEWD. HAVE UPDATED POPS/WX/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
FACTORS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND GUSTY SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE NORTHLAND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS IT
AHEAD OF AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE SHOULD BE TRANSITION TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. THE GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE...PRIMARILY TO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...TONIGHT DUE REDEVELOPING LOW CLOUD
COVER...MIST/FOG...AND ONGOING -SHRA. THE -TSRA COULD CONTINUE FOR
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT I ONLY FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE -TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
CONDITIONS TO QUALIFY FOR ADDING WIND SHEAR INTO THE FORECAST...SO
I ADDED A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FOR KHYR AS AN INITIAL STEP. WE
MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO KDLH/KHIB DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
WITH WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  50  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  50  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  40  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  50  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  30  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 311750
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHOWERS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE FA ALONG AN H85 FRONTOGENESIS AXIS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH CENTRAL MN INTO NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.
RADAR AND SATELLITE REVEAL OTHER SHOWERS AND STORMS TRYING TO
DEVELOP. HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE AREA REMAINS STABLE ATTM. LINE OF
STORMS FROM NEAR STC TO SW MN WILL BEAR WATCHING AS IT CONTINUES
TO PUSH NEWD. HAVE UPDATED POPS/WX/QPF TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE
FACTORS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND GUSTY SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE NORTHLAND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS IT
AHEAD OF AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE SHOULD BE TRANSITION TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. THE GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE...PRIMARILY TO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...TONIGHT DUE REDEVELOPING LOW CLOUD
COVER...MIST/FOG...AND ONGOING -SHRA. THE -TSRA COULD CONTINUE FOR
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT I ONLY FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE -TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
CONDITIONS TO QUALIFY FOR ADDING WIND SHEAR INTO THE FORECAST...SO
I ADDED A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FOR KHYR AS AN INITIAL STEP. WE
MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO KDLH/KHIB DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
WITH WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  50  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  50  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  40  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  50  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  30  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND GUSTY SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE NORTHLAND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS IT
AHEAD OF AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE SHOULD BE TRANSITION TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. THE GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE...PRIMARILY TO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...TONIGHT DUE REDEVELOPING LOW CLOUD
COVER...MIST/FOG...AND ONGOING -SHRA. THE -TSRA COULD CONTINUE FOR
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT I ONLY FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE -TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
CONDITIONS TO QUALIFY FOR ADDING WIND SHEAR INTO THE FORECAST...SO
I ADDED A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FOR KHYR AS AN INITIAL STEP. WE
MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO KDLH/KHIB DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
WITH WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  50  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  50  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  40  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  50  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  30  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD BKN/OVC MVFR/VFR CIGS
AND GUSTY SE WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
NEAR THE MN/ND BORDER AND ITS COLD FRONT APPROACHED THE NORTHLAND.
THIS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS IT
AHEAD OF AND AS IT MOVES INTO THE REGION. SOME STORMS COULD BE
STRONG TO SEVERE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

THERE SHOULD BE TRANSITION TO MORE VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LOW CIGS LIFT AND SCATTER. THE GUSTY SE WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTHERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN THIS EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE...PRIMARILY TO IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS...TONIGHT DUE REDEVELOPING LOW CLOUD
COVER...MIST/FOG...AND ONGOING -SHRA. THE -TSRA COULD CONTINUE FOR
SOME AREAS OVERNIGHT...BUT I ONLY FOCUSED TEMPO GROUPS FOR -TSRA
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING WHEN THE -TSRA IS
MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR.

THERE WILL BE GUSTY SW WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY TERMINAL TO SEE
CONDITIONS TO QUALIFY FOR ADDING WIND SHEAR INTO THE FORECAST...SO
I ADDED A PERIOD OF WIND SHEAR FOR KHYR AS AN INITIAL STEP. WE
MIGHT NEED TO EXPAND THIS TO KDLH/KHIB DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
WITH WHICH THE WINDS ALOFT WEAKEN THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY MORNING...WHICH WILL HELP TO
LIFT THE MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS. WIDESPREAD MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD REDEVELOP BY LATE MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  50  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  50  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  40  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  50  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  30  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 311419
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOB OVC010 WILL PREVAIL OVER ALMOST ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SLOWLY RISE MID TO LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE STORMS WILL BE THIS
EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  40  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  70  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  50  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  40  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  20  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>146.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311419
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CLOUDS COVERED A MAJORITY OF THE FA AT 14Z WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
NW WI WHERE SOME SUN WAS NOTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO FILL IN OVER NW
WI SHORTLY. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS LOCATION OF LOW
LEVEL JET OVER SOUTHERN MN. ATTM...NOT EXPECTING THE LLJ TO HAVE
AN IMPACT ON THE CLOUD COVER. BATCH OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NW MN
HEADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL MN AT 14Z. NOT EXPECTING THIS ACTIVITY
TO LAST MUCH LONGER AS THEY ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE AIRMASS. WITH
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STILL IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS...HAVE SLOWED
THE ONSET OF SHOWERS AND STORMS AND REDUCED POPS AS WELL. MADE
SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOB OVC010 WILL PREVAIL OVER ALMOST ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SLOWLY RISE MID TO LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE STORMS WILL BE THIS
EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  70  62  72  53 /  40  90  30  10
INL  70  60  70  49 /  70  80  20  10
BRD  78  59  73  53 /  50  70  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  40  90  50  10
ASX  78  64  73  54 /  20  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>146.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 311138 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
638 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IFR CONDITIONS WITH CIGS AOB OVC010 WILL PREVAIL OVER ALMOST ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...BUT WILL SLOWLY RISE MID TO LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE STORMS WILL BE THIS
EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  62  72  53 /  40  90  30  10
INL  73  60  70  49 /  70  80  20  10
BRD  79  59  73  53 /  50  80  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  30  90  50  10
ASX  79  64  73  54 /  20  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ140>146.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM  CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...BUT THERE
WILL BE AREAS OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR AFT 12Z...BEFORE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  62  72  53 /  40  90  30  10
INL  73  60  70  49 /  70  80  20  10
BRD  79  59  73  53 /  50  80  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  30  90  50  10
ASX  79  64  73  54 /  20  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ140>146.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SHORT TERM FOCUS ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT PASSAGE TODAY/TONIGHT ALONG
WITH SEVERE WEATHER/HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS TO REFINE TIMING OF FROPA/STORMS.
ALSO LOWERED TEMPS AND INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG FOR LOCATIONS ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND WESTERN TIP OF LAKE SUPERIOR TODAY WHERE
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PREVAIL.

CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS CURRENTLY FOUND
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MOVING INTO WESTERN MN. THE LATEST HRRR/NAM/WRF
SUGGEST THE CONVECTION DIMINISHES AFTER DAYBREAK AS IT LIFTS
ACROSS NORTHWEST MN. HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER MN ZONES TODAY TO
ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS/STORMS. HOWEVER...BULK OF
TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ALONG THE COLD FRONT/SFC LOW AS IT
PUSHES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION RAPIDLY
RE-DEVELOPS OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MN THIS EVENING /AROUND 00Z/...AND
BECOMES BECOMES FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM THE MN
ARROWHEAD...OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND ACROSS NRN WISCONSIN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE INCREASED QPF OVERNIGHT...MAINLY OVER NRN
WISCONSIN...WHERE THE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR SHOWS PWATS
APPROACHING 2" WITH CAPE >2000 J/KG. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED FOR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES...WITH
HIGHER AMOUNTS AROUND 2 INCHES IN WISCONSIN. THERE ARE PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THAT HAVE RECEIVED HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PAST
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BY MONDAY MORNING THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ACROSS THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD AND THROUGH DULUTH...READY TO GO THROUGH NWRN WI. THERE
WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LIFT TO CONTINUE THUNDERSTORMS OVR WI.
INSTABILITY WILL LAG BEHIND THE FRONT...SO MAY SEE A LINGERING
STORMS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR A TIME.

FAST PACIFIC FLOW WILL BE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE NATION
THROUGH THIS EXTENDED PERIOD.  A SERIES OF TROFS WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE FLOW AND CONTINUE CHANCES OF RAIN. TIMING OF SPECIFIC WAVES IN
THE LONGER TERM DIFFICULT. NEXT ONE WILL BE SHOWING UP AROUND
TUESDAY...BUT EVEN THAT IS IN QUESTION AS RESULTANT QPF VARIED
BETWEEN THE MODELS.  MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT AS NEXT LONGWAVE TROF
GETS CLOSER TO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND NOT EXITING UNTIL THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM  CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...BUT THERE
WILL BE AREAS OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR AFT 12Z...BEFORE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  62  72  53 /  40  90  30  10
INL  73  60  70  49 /  70  80  20  10
BRD  79  59  73  53 /  50  80  10  20
HYR  78  65  75  52 /  30  90  50  10
ASX  79  64  73  54 /  20  90  50  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ140>146.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 310533 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A FAIR AMOUNT IN SPOTS...BUT THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME FILL IN OF CLOUDS AND FOG AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON. HAVE SEEN SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS PERSIST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
INTO THE NORTH SHORE AREA. COULD SEE THOSE LINGER A BIT MORE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM  CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

IT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...BUT THERE
WILL BE AREAS OF IFR/MVFR AND LOCALLY LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON. SOME FOG WILL DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE TO MAINLY VFR AFT 12Z...BEFORE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY
BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  72  53  72 /  80  30  10  30
INL  57  70  49  72 /  80  20  10  30
BRD  60  73  53  75 /  70  20  20  20
HYR  64  75  52  75 /  80  50  10  30
ASX  63  73  54  73 /  80  50  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310248 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
948 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A FAIR AMOUNT IN SPOTS...BUT THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME FILL IN OF CLOUDS AND FOG AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON. HAVE SEEN SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS PERSIST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
INTO THE NORTH SHORE AREA. COULD SEE THOSE LINGER A BIT MORE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONDITIONS ARE MUCH IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LARGELY VFR
AND MVFR CIGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT WE CONTINUE TO RUN THE RISK THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN AGAIN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN
THE WESTERN CWA...AND LARGELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  20  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  20  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP










000
FXUS63 KDLH 310248 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
948 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A FAIR AMOUNT IN SPOTS...BUT THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME FILL IN OF CLOUDS AND FOG AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON. HAVE SEEN SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS PERSIST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
INTO THE NORTH SHORE AREA. COULD SEE THOSE LINGER A BIT MORE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONDITIONS ARE MUCH IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LARGELY VFR
AND MVFR CIGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT WE CONTINUE TO RUN THE RISK THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN AGAIN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN
THE WESTERN CWA...AND LARGELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  20  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  20  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP









000
FXUS63 KDLH 310239
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
939 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TEH REST OF THE NIGHT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A FAIR AMOUNT IN SPOTS...BUT THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME FILL IN OF CLOUDS AND FOG AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON. HAVE SEEN SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS PERSIST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
INTO THE NORTH SHORE AREA. COULD SEE THOSE LINGER A BIT MORE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONDITIONS ARE MUCH IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LARGELY VFR
AND MVFR CIGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT WE CONTINUE TO RUN THE RISK THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN AGAIN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN
THE WESTERN CWA...AND LARGELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  20  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  20  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310239
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
939 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 933 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR TEH REST OF THE NIGHT. WE
HAVE SEEN THE CLOUDS BREAK UP A FAIR AMOUNT IN SPOTS...BUT THINK
THERE WILL BE SOME FILL IN OF CLOUDS AND FOG AS THE NIGHT WEARS
ON. HAVE SEEN SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS PERSIST FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES
INTO THE NORTH SHORE AREA. COULD SEE THOSE LINGER A BIT MORE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENING...BEFORE LARGELY DISSIPATING OVERNIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FOG DEVELOPMENT AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONDITIONS ARE MUCH IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LARGELY VFR
AND MVFR CIGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT WE CONTINUE TO RUN THE RISK THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN AGAIN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN
THE WESTERN CWA...AND LARGELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SITES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  20  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  20  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 310035
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
735 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONDITIONS ARE MUCH IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LARGELY VFR
AND MVFR CIGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT WE CONTINUE TO RUN THE RISK THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN AGAIN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN
THE WESTERN CWA...AND LARGELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  20  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  20  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310035
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
735 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 732 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CONDITIONS ARE MUCH IMPROVED FROM EARLIER TODAY...WITH LARGELY VFR
AND MVFR CIGS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR A TIME
THIS EVENING...BUT WE CONTINUE TO RUN THE RISK THAT WE WILL SEE
SOME IFR/LIFR CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THOSE
CONDITIONS WILL THEN AGAIN IMPROVE ON SUNDAY...AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE DAY IN
THE WESTERN CWA...AND LARGELY AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD FOR
THE REMAINDER OF SITES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  20  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  20  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 302006
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD OVC SKIES AND IFR/MVFR
CIGS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A TREND TOWARDS MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS.
THE 5 TO 10 KNOT NNE TO ENE FLOW WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND
EASTERLY BY THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A TRANSITION TO AT LEAST IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...IF NOT LIFR...AS
MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINAL TO SEE FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING AS SE WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST. THE KINL AND KBRD WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  10  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  10  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 302006
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF WAS MOVING THROUGH THE FA AT 18Z WHILE
ITS ASSOCIATED SFC LOW HAD REACHED NEAR GRB. CLOUDS WERE NUMEROUS
ACROSS THE FA...EXCEPT NEAR INL WHERE DRIER AIR FROM HIGH PRESSURE
WAS BEGINNING TO FILTER INTO THE AREA. AN ONSHORE FLOW FROM LAKE
SUPERIOR HAS RESULTED IN SOME ISOLD SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE FROM BFW TO TWM AND DYT. A FEW SHOWERS MAY POP YET LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND HAVE SMALL POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLEARING TONIGHT AS MODELS SUGGEST
A MEAN RH OF 50 TO 60 PERCENT WHICH WILL MAINTAIN THE CLOUD COVER.
MAY SEE SOME ADDITIONAL CLEARING IN SOME SPOTS...BUT MAY NOT LAST
LONG. DID MAINTAIN THE MENTION OF FOG FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

ON SUNDAY...A LONG WAVE TROF WILL BEGIN TO EDGE OUT OF THE ROCKIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROF WILL REACH THE DAKOTAS BY
00Z MONDAY. PIECES OF ENERGY WILL EJECT AHEAD OF THIS TROF AND
COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL JETS TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
AND STORMS. LEADING EDGE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN TIER OF THE FA BY
MID MORNING...AND COVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA BY 18Z. BEST
INSTABILITY WILL BE LOCATED S OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING...BUT
BEGINNING TO REACH THE CDD TO BRD AREA BY 18Z. THE INSTABILITY
INCREASES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FA AND UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHEST POPS WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER PROGGED TO REACH NW MN BY 00Z MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 306 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

IT LOOKS LIKE AN ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER PATTERN IS IN STORE FOR THE
NORTHLAND THIS UPCOMING WEEK. ONE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BRING
SIGNIFICANT RAIN EARLY IN THE PERIOD...AND ANOTHER ROUND OF
SIGNIFICANT RAINS IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. THERE ARE ALSO
PERIODS OF LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN BETWEEN THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

THE SITUATION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING...THERE WILL BE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER NW MINNESOTA...OR SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.
A COLD FRONT WILL STRETCH FROM THE LOW THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL PLAINS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST AND BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS THROUGH
THE REGION. SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA LIKELY TO GET AT LEAST A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAIN.
HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL LIKELY BE DRY BY THIS
POINT...WITH MOST OF THE COLD FRONT SHOWERS AND STORMS LIKELY WELL
TO EAST THE FORECAST AREA. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP
PROMOTE THE DRY WEATHER.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT...BUT ARE SUGGESTING POTENTIAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH A
ONE OR MORE PASSING TROUGHS OF LOW PRESSURE. THE GEM AND NAM ARE THE
MOST BULLISH WITH PCPN FOR THE FIRST TROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
PCPN...WHILE THE GFS IS THE LEAST. THE GFS AND GEM HAVE RAIN WITH
THE SECOND TROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS
NOT PICKING UP ON THIS TROUGH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...POSSIBLY BRINGING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND
STORMS DURING THIS TIME PERIOD AND ALSO WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT
THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY...COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT. SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...DEPENDING ON
THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE.

TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK...BUT THEN NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD OVC SKIES AND IFR/MVFR
CIGS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A TREND TOWARDS MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS.
THE 5 TO 10 KNOT NNE TO ENE FLOW WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND
EASTERLY BY THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A TRANSITION TO AT LEAST IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...IF NOT LIFR...AS
MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINAL TO SEE FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING AS SE WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST. THE KINL AND KBRD WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  74  60  72 /  10  40  80  30
INL  56  70  57  70 /  10  70  80  20
BRD  59  79  60  73 /  10  50  70  20
HYR  53  76  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI









000
FXUS63 KDLH 301732 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE NO LONGER INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA AND HAVE REMOVED. SOME HOLES ARE BEGINNING TO OPEN IN THE
CLOUD COVER...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AND QUICKLY REFILL. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 77 IN WI FA THROUGH THE
MORNING. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR/WISCONSIN...WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN WISCONSIN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO SINK INTO THE
NRN ZONES/BORDERLAND TODAY. HOWEVER...ELSEWHERE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSTM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS CEN MN WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CAPE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRONG WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE/COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM AT LEAST 8 DEGREES FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING.  MAJOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON STRONG 8H JET OF 40 KTS
WILL AID IN SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT A ROUND OF SVR TSTMS AS DESCRIBED BY SPC SWODY2. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MUCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 2500 TO OVER 3000
J/KG...LI`S WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...TT`S OVER 50.  ALL THE
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE...AND ADDED LIFT PROVIDED BY
FRONT...UPPER VORT...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM JET LET ROUNDING THE
UPPER TROF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING...A FIRST ROUND COULD
BE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING WHEN AN INITIAL WAVE HELPS STORMS
ERUPT IN WRN MN AND SOME OF THESE COULD REACH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA THEN CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE
FRONT SHOULD BE INTO NWRN WI...AND EXIT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY
FLOW. THIS MEANS A SERIES OF S/WVS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BRING SERIES OF UPPER TROFS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD OVC SKIES AND IFR/MVFR
CIGS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A TREND TOWARDS MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS.
THE 5 TO 10 KNOT NNE TO ENE FLOW WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND
EASTERLY BY THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A TRANSITION TO AT LEAST IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...IF NOT LIFR...AS
MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINAL TO SEE FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING AS SE WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST. THE KINL AND KBRD WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  54  70  61 /  20  10  40  80
INL  70  52  73  57 /  10  10  70  70
BRD  70  59  78  60 /  70  10  70  80
HYR  70  53  79  64 /  40  10  20  80
ASX  66  52  78  63 /  20  10  20  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301732 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE NO LONGER INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA AND HAVE REMOVED. SOME HOLES ARE BEGINNING TO OPEN IN THE
CLOUD COVER...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AND QUICKLY REFILL. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 77 IN WI FA THROUGH THE
MORNING. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR/WISCONSIN...WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN WISCONSIN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO SINK INTO THE
NRN ZONES/BORDERLAND TODAY. HOWEVER...ELSEWHERE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSTM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS CEN MN WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CAPE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRONG WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE/COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM AT LEAST 8 DEGREES FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING.  MAJOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON STRONG 8H JET OF 40 KTS
WILL AID IN SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT A ROUND OF SVR TSTMS AS DESCRIBED BY SPC SWODY2. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MUCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 2500 TO OVER 3000
J/KG...LI`S WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...TT`S OVER 50.  ALL THE
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE...AND ADDED LIFT PROVIDED BY
FRONT...UPPER VORT...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM JET LET ROUNDING THE
UPPER TROF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING...A FIRST ROUND COULD
BE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING WHEN AN INITIAL WAVE HELPS STORMS
ERUPT IN WRN MN AND SOME OF THESE COULD REACH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA THEN CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE
FRONT SHOULD BE INTO NWRN WI...AND EXIT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY
FLOW. THIS MEANS A SERIES OF S/WVS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BRING SERIES OF UPPER TROFS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1232 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD OVC SKIES AND IFR/MVFR
CIGS AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVED THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A TREND TOWARDS MVFR/VFR CONDITIONS.
THE 5 TO 10 KNOT NNE TO ENE FLOW WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT AND
EASTERLY BY THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DETERIORATE TONIGHT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A TRANSITION TO AT LEAST IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS...IF NOT LIFR...AS
MIST/FOG AND LOW CIGS DEVELOP. THE KHYR AREA IS THE MOST LIKELY
TERMINAL TO SEE FOG AND LIFR CONDITIONS.

CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE SUNDAY MORNING AS SE WINDS
INCREASE DUE TO AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
FROM THE WEST. THE KINL AND KBRD WILL SEE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  54  70  61 /  20  10  40  80
INL  70  52  73  57 /  10  10  70  70
BRD  70  59  78  60 /  70  10  70  80
HYR  70  53  79  64 /  40  10  20  80
ASX  66  52  78  63 /  20  10  20  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 301424
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
924 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE NO LONGER INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA AND HAVE REMOVED. SOME HOLES ARE BEGINNING TO OPEN IN THE
CLOUD COVER...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AND QUICKLY REFILL. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 77 IN WI FA THROUGH THE
MORNING. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR/WISCONSIN...WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN WISCONSIN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO SINK INTO THE
NRN ZONES/BORDERLAND TODAY. HOWEVER...ELSEWHERE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSTM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS CEN MN WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CAPE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRONG WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE/COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM AT LEAST 8 DEGREES FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING.  MAJOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON STRONG 8H JET OF 40 KTS
WILL AID IN SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT A ROUND OF SVR TSTMS AS DESCRIBED BY SPC SWODY2. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MUCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 2500 TO OVER 3000
J/KG...LI`S WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...TT`S OVER 50.  ALL THE
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE...AND ADDED LIFT PROVIDED BY
FRONT...UPPER VORT...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM JET LET ROUNDING THE
UPPER TROF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING...A FIRST ROUND COULD
BE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING WHEN AN INITIAL WAVE HELPS STORMS
ERUPT IN WRN MN AND SOME OF THESE COULD REACH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA THEN CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE
FRONT SHOULD BE INTO NWRN WI...AND EXIT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY
FLOW. THIS MEANS A SERIES OF S/WVS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BRING SERIES OF UPPER TROFS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM  CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CIGS TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR.
THERE WILL BE SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING GENERALLY FROM
THE WEST,  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  54  70  61 /  20  10  40  80
INL  70  52  73  57 /  10  10  70  70
BRD  70  59  78  60 /  70  10  70  80
HYR  70  53  79  64 /  40  10  20  80
ASX  66  52  78  63 /  20  10  20  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 301424
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
924 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 924 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODEL GUIDANCE NO LONGER INDICATES THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA AND HAVE REMOVED. SOME HOLES ARE BEGINNING TO OPEN IN THE
CLOUD COVER...BUT SHOULD NOT LAST LONG AND QUICKLY REFILL. RAIN
WILL CONTINUE ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 77 IN WI FA THROUGH THE
MORNING. MADE SOME OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR/WISCONSIN...WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN WISCONSIN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO SINK INTO THE
NRN ZONES/BORDERLAND TODAY. HOWEVER...ELSEWHERE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSTM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS CEN MN WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CAPE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRONG WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE/COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM AT LEAST 8 DEGREES FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING.  MAJOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON STRONG 8H JET OF 40 KTS
WILL AID IN SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT A ROUND OF SVR TSTMS AS DESCRIBED BY SPC SWODY2. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MUCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 2500 TO OVER 3000
J/KG...LI`S WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...TT`S OVER 50.  ALL THE
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE...AND ADDED LIFT PROVIDED BY
FRONT...UPPER VORT...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM JET LET ROUNDING THE
UPPER TROF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING...A FIRST ROUND COULD
BE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING WHEN AN INITIAL WAVE HELPS STORMS
ERUPT IN WRN MN AND SOME OF THESE COULD REACH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA THEN CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE
FRONT SHOULD BE INTO NWRN WI...AND EXIT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY
FLOW. THIS MEANS A SERIES OF S/WVS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BRING SERIES OF UPPER TROFS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM  CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CIGS TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR.
THERE WILL BE SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING GENERALLY FROM
THE WEST,  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  54  70  61 /  20  10  40  80
INL  70  52  73  57 /  10  10  70  70
BRD  70  59  78  60 /  70  10  70  80
HYR  70  53  79  64 /  40  10  20  80
ASX  66  52  78  63 /  20  10  20  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301149 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR/WISCONSIN...WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN WISCONSIN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO SINK INTO THE
NRN ZONES/BORDERLAND TODAY. HOWEVER...ELSEWHERE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSTM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS CEN MN WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CAPE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRONG WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE/COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM AT LEAST 8 DEGREES FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING.  MAJOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON STRONG 8H JET OF 40 KTS
WILL AID IN SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT A ROUND OF SVR TSTMS AS DESCRIBED BY SPC SWODY2. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MUCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 2500 TO OVER 3000
J/KG...LI`S WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...TT`S OVER 50.  ALL THE
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE...AND ADDED LIFT PROVIDED BY
FRONT...UPPER VORT...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM JETLET ROUNDING THE
UPPER TROF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING...A FIRST ROUND COULD
BE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING WHEN AN INITIAL WAVE HELPS STORMS
ERUPT IN WRN MN AND SOME OF THESE COULD REACH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA THEN CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE
FRONT SHOULD BE INTO NWRN WI...AND EXIT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY
FLOW. THIS MEANS A SERIES OF S/WVS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BRING SERIES OF UPPER TROFS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM  CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CIGS TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR.
THERE WILL BE SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING GNERALLY FROM
THE WEST,  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  54  70  61 /  10  10  40  80
INL  73  52  73  57 /  10  10  70  70
BRD  70  59  78  60 /  30  10  70  80
HYR  71  53  79  64 /  40  10  20  80
ASX  67  52  78  63 /  20  10  20  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 301149 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR/WISCONSIN...WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN WISCONSIN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO SINK INTO THE
NRN ZONES/BORDERLAND TODAY. HOWEVER...ELSEWHERE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSTM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS CEN MN WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CAPE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRONG WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE/COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM AT LEAST 8 DEGREES FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING.  MAJOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON STRONG 8H JET OF 40 KTS
WILL AID IN SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT A ROUND OF SVR TSTMS AS DESCRIBED BY SPC SWODY2. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MUCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 2500 TO OVER 3000
J/KG...LI`S WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...TT`S OVER 50.  ALL THE
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE...AND ADDED LIFT PROVIDED BY
FRONT...UPPER VORT...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM JETLET ROUNDING THE
UPPER TROF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING...A FIRST ROUND COULD
BE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING WHEN AN INITIAL WAVE HELPS STORMS
ERUPT IN WRN MN AND SOME OF THESE COULD REACH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA THEN CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE
FRONT SHOULD BE INTO NWRN WI...AND EXIT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY
FLOW. THIS MEANS A SERIES OF S/WVS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BRING SERIES OF UPPER TROFS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM  CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CIGS TODAY OVER THE NORTHLAND WILL BE MVFR WITH POCKETS OF IFR.
THERE WILL BE SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE MORNING GNERALLY FROM
THE WEST,  WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TODAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  54  70  61 /  10  10  40  80
INL  73  52  73  57 /  10  10  70  70
BRD  70  59  78  60 /  30  10  70  80
HYR  71  53  79  64 /  40  10  20  80
ASX  67  52  78  63 /  20  10  20  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300828
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR/WISCONSIN...WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN WISCONSIN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO SINK INTO THE
NRN ZONES/BORDERLAND TODAY. HOWEVER...ELSEWHERE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSTM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS CEN MN WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CAPE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRONG WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE/COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM AT LEAST 8 DEGREES FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING.  MAJOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON STRONG 8H JET OF 40 KTS
WILL AID IN SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT A ROUND OF SVR TSTMS AS DESCRIBED BY SPC SWODY2. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MUCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 2500 TO OVER 3000
J/KG...LI`S WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...TT`S OVER 50.  ALL THE
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE...AND ADDED LIFT PROVIDED BY
FRONT...UPPER VORT...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM JETLET ROUNDING THE
UPPER TROF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING...A FIRST ROUND COULD
BE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING WHEN AN INITIAL WAVE HELPS STORMS
ERUPT IN WRN MN AND SOME OF THESE COULD REACH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA THEN CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE
FRONT SHOULD BE INTO NWRN WI...AND EXIT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY
FLOW. THIS MEANS A SERIES OF S/WVS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BRING SERIES OF UPPER TROFS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF AND THE EFFECTS WILL LESSEN ON SATURDAY. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
IFR/LIFR AND MVFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR ON SATURDAY. FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  54  70  61 /  10  10  40  80
INL  73  52  73  57 /  10  10  70  70
BRD  72  59  78  60 /  20  10  70  80
HYR  71  53  79  64 /  70  10  20  80
ASX  65  52  78  63 /  40  10  20  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300828
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
328 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR/WISCONSIN...WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE DAY.
RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER THE NRN WISCONSIN ZONES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISHING. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORED OVER ONTARIO WILL ALLOW FOR DRIER AIR TO SINK INTO THE
NRN ZONES/BORDERLAND TODAY. HOWEVER...ELSEWHERE SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PATCHY DRIZZLE THIS MORNING...WITH
LINGERING CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAY. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN
ISOLATED TSTM THIS AFTERNOON IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE
LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SHOWING A SHORT WAVE TRACKS
ACROSS CEN MN WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CAPE TO SUPPORT
CONVECTION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL TOP OUT IN THE 60S TO
LOWER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

STRONG WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE WILL BE SEEN AHEAD OF LOW
PRESSURE/COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF ADVANCING FROM THE PLAINS. 8H
TEMPS FORECAST TO WARM AT LEAST 8 DEGREES FROM THIS MORNING UNTIL
SUNDAY MORNING.  MAJOR MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON STRONG 8H JET OF 40 KTS
WILL AID IN SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 1.5
INCHES. WITH STRONG SHEAR AND VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...EXPECT A ROUND OF SVR TSTMS AS DESCRIBED BY SPC SWODY2. BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON MUCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 2500 TO OVER 3000
J/KG...LI`S WILL BE WELL BELOW ZERO...TT`S OVER 50.  ALL THE
PARAMETERS WILL BE IN PLACE...AND ADDED LIFT PROVIDED BY
FRONT...UPPER VORT...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE FROM JETLET ROUNDING THE
UPPER TROF SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. AT THIS POINT THE MODELS ARE IN
FAIRLY AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM. WHILE
THE BULK OF THE STORMS WILL BE SUNDAY EVENING...A FIRST ROUND COULD
BE AS EARLY AS SUNDAY MORNING WHEN AN INITIAL WAVE HELPS STORMS
ERUPT IN WRN MN AND SOME OF THESE COULD REACH INTO THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA THEN CONTINUE EAST THROUGH THE DAY. THE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. BY MONDAY MORNING THE
FRONT SHOULD BE INTO NWRN WI...AND EXIT BY MONDAY AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY
FLOW. THIS MEANS A SERIES OF S/WVS EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BRING SERIES OF UPPER TROFS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF AND THE EFFECTS WILL LESSEN ON SATURDAY. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
IFR/LIFR AND MVFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR ON SATURDAY. FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  54  70  61 /  10  10  40  80
INL  73  52  73  57 /  10  10  70  70
BRD  72  59  78  60 /  20  10  70  80
HYR  71  53  79  64 /  70  10  20  80
ASX  65  52  78  63 /  40  10  20  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 300532 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A SLOW MOVING AREA OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE NAM...SEEMED TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND WILL FOLLOW FAIRLY CLOSELY AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT UP INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
RAINFALL FROM THE 88D WAS SHOWING SOME 2 TO 2.5 INCH AMOUNTS. HAVE
NOT HAD TOO MUCH SURFACE REFLECTION YET BUT THINK THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. WILL
REALLY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS THOUGH...AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A WARNING MAY NEED
TO BE EVENTUALLY ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AT 315PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POTENT SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NW MANITOBA. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS SOME CLEARING MOVING INTO THE FAR
SE FORECAST AREA DUE TO CLEARER SKIES FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARDS WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE WARM
FRONT IN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH. THE WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NW WISCONSIN. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.8 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS TRAIN.
THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT AND CLEARING COULD CAUSE ENOUGH HEATING TO CAUSE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SOME STRONG STORMS.

TONIGHT...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. A SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SW
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND AND HIGH
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR A TRAILING TROUGH.
THE MORNING LOOKS CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR IN FEATURING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN CONUS THIS PERIOD. AFTER SOME INITIAL
COLLAPSE OF MID LVL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD A TREND TOWARDS A
LARGE BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE TOO EARLY TO TELL THIS MAY PLACE PARTS OF THE
REGION WITHIN A FAVORABLE CORRIDOR OF HIGH PWS AND POTENTIAL
MCS/MCC DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FEW DAYS OF GENERALLY
BENIGN WX SHOULD DEVELOP FROM LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE AREA
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A PASSING SFC HIGH THAT MOVES FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH SOME POPS ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE FCST TUESDAY THE MOISTURE/LIFT IS LIMITED AND LATER SHIFTS MAY
BE ABLE TO REDUCE/ELIMINATE WHAT IS CURRENTLY FCST. THE NEXT
CREDIBLE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED LIFT AND MSTR TRANSPORT WILL BE LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BDRY ARRIVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. BY THAT
TIME THE AREA OF FORCING SHOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT PWATS TO ACT
UPON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF AND THE EFFECTS WILL LESSEN ON SATURDAY. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
IFR/LIFR AND MVFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR ON SATURDAY. FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  74  61  72 /  10  40  80  40
INL  52  73  57  71 /  10  70  70  30
BRD  58  78  60  74 /  10  70  80  20
HYR  55  79  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  10  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 300532 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1232 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A SLOW MOVING AREA OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE NAM...SEEMED TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND WILL FOLLOW FAIRLY CLOSELY AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT UP INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
RAINFALL FROM THE 88D WAS SHOWING SOME 2 TO 2.5 INCH AMOUNTS. HAVE
NOT HAD TOO MUCH SURFACE REFLECTION YET BUT THINK THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. WILL
REALLY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS THOUGH...AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A WARNING MAY NEED
TO BE EVENTUALLY ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AT 315PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POTENT SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NW MANITOBA. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS SOME CLEARING MOVING INTO THE FAR
SE FORECAST AREA DUE TO CLEARER SKIES FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARDS WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE WARM
FRONT IN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH. THE WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NW WISCONSIN. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.8 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS TRAIN.
THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT AND CLEARING COULD CAUSE ENOUGH HEATING TO CAUSE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SOME STRONG STORMS.

TONIGHT...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. A SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SW
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND AND HIGH
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR A TRAILING TROUGH.
THE MORNING LOOKS CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR IN FEATURING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN CONUS THIS PERIOD. AFTER SOME INITIAL
COLLAPSE OF MID LVL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD A TREND TOWARDS A
LARGE BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE TOO EARLY TO TELL THIS MAY PLACE PARTS OF THE
REGION WITHIN A FAVORABLE CORRIDOR OF HIGH PWS AND POTENTIAL
MCS/MCC DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FEW DAYS OF GENERALLY
BENIGN WX SHOULD DEVELOP FROM LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE AREA
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A PASSING SFC HIGH THAT MOVES FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH SOME POPS ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE FCST TUESDAY THE MOISTURE/LIFT IS LIMITED AND LATER SHIFTS MAY
BE ABLE TO REDUCE/ELIMINATE WHAT IS CURRENTLY FCST. THE NEXT
CREDIBLE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED LIFT AND MSTR TRANSPORT WILL BE LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BDRY ARRIVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. BY THAT
TIME THE AREA OF FORCING SHOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT PWATS TO ACT
UPON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

A SLOW MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE NIGHT AND EVEN INTO SATURDAY. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF AND THE EFFECTS WILL LESSEN ON SATURDAY. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN ALONG WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
IFR/LIFR AND MVFR WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR ON SATURDAY. FOG WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BUT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT SATURDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  74  61  72 /  10  40  80  40
INL  52  73  57  71 /  10  70  70  30
BRD  58  78  60  74 /  10  70  80  20
HYR  55  79  64  75 /  10  20  80  50
ASX  53  78  63  73 /  10  10  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300426
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1126 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A SLOW MOVING AREA OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE NAM...SEEMED TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND WILL FOLLOW FAIRLY CLOSELY AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT UP INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
RAINFALL FROM THE 88D WAS SHOWING SOME 2 TO 2.5 INCH AMOUNTS. HAVE
NOT HAD TOO MUCH SURFACE REFLECTION YET BUT THINK THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. WILL
REALLY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS THOUGH...AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A WARNING MAY NEED
TO BE EVENTUALLY ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AT 315PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POTENT SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NW MANITOBA. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS SOME CLEARING MOVING INTO THE FAR
SE FORECAST AREA DUE TO CLEARER SKIES FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARDS WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE WARM
FRONT IN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH. THE WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NW WISCONSIN. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.8 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS TRAIN.
THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT AND CLEARING COULD CAUSE ENOUGH HEATING TO CAUSE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SOME STRONG STORMS.

TONIGHT...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. A SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SW
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND AND HIGH
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR A TRAILING TROUGH.
THE MORNING LOOKS CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR IN FEATURING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN CONUS THIS PERIOD. AFTER SOME INITIAL
COLLAPSE OF MID LVL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD A TREND TOWARDS A
LARGE BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE TOO EARLY TO TELL THIS MAY PLACE PARTS OF THE
REGION WITHIN A FAVORABLE CORRIDOR OF HIGH PWS AND POTENTIAL
MCS/MCC DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FEW DAYS OF GENERALLY
BENIGN WX SHOULD DEVELOP FROM LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE AREA
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A PASSING SFC HIGH THAT MOVES FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH SOME POPS ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE FCST TUESDAY THE MOISTURE/LIFT IS LIMITED AND LATER SHIFTS MAY
BE ABLE TO REDUCE/ELIMINATE WHAT IS CURRENTLY FCST. THE NEXT
CREDIBLE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED LIFT AND MSTR TRANSPORT WILL BE LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BDRY ARRIVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. BY THAT
TIME THE AREA OF FORCING SHOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT PWATS TO ACT
UPON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IN
FACT...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE AND LARGELY SETTLE INTO THE
IFR/LIFR CATEGORY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS
OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO GENERALLY MVFR OR VFR ON SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  67  54  74 /  40  20  10  40
INL  52  71  52  73 /  30  10  10  70
BRD  59  72  58  78 /  20  20  10  70
HYR  60  72  55  79 /  90  30  10  20
ASX  58  68  53  78 /  90  30  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300426
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1126 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1117 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

A SLOW MOVING AREA OF RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MUCH OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THE LATEST HRRR AND TO
SOME EXTENT THE NAM...SEEMED TO HAVE A FAIRLY DECENT HANDLE ON
THE CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...AND WILL FOLLOW FAIRLY CLOSELY AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF
HEAVY RAIN WILL LIFT UP INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN OVERNIGHT.
RAINFALL FROM THE 88D WAS SHOWING SOME 2 TO 2.5 INCH AMOUNTS. HAVE
NOT HAD TOO MUCH SURFACE REFLECTION YET BUT THINK THERE WILL
LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING. WILL
REALLY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS THOUGH...AS THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL THAT A WARNING MAY NEED
TO BE EVENTUALLY ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AT 315PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POTENT SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NW MANITOBA. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS SOME CLEARING MOVING INTO THE FAR
SE FORECAST AREA DUE TO CLEARER SKIES FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARDS WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE WARM
FRONT IN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH. THE WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NW WISCONSIN. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.8 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS TRAIN.
THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT AND CLEARING COULD CAUSE ENOUGH HEATING TO CAUSE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SOME STRONG STORMS.

TONIGHT...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. A SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SW
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND AND HIGH
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR A TRAILING TROUGH.
THE MORNING LOOKS CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR IN FEATURING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN CONUS THIS PERIOD. AFTER SOME INITIAL
COLLAPSE OF MID LVL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD A TREND TOWARDS A
LARGE BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE TOO EARLY TO TELL THIS MAY PLACE PARTS OF THE
REGION WITHIN A FAVORABLE CORRIDOR OF HIGH PWS AND POTENTIAL
MCS/MCC DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FEW DAYS OF GENERALLY
BENIGN WX SHOULD DEVELOP FROM LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE AREA
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A PASSING SFC HIGH THAT MOVES FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH SOME POPS ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE FCST TUESDAY THE MOISTURE/LIFT IS LIMITED AND LATER SHIFTS MAY
BE ABLE TO REDUCE/ELIMINATE WHAT IS CURRENTLY FCST. THE NEXT
CREDIBLE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED LIFT AND MSTR TRANSPORT WILL BE LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BDRY ARRIVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. BY THAT
TIME THE AREA OF FORCING SHOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT PWATS TO ACT
UPON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IN
FACT...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE AND LARGELY SETTLE INTO THE
IFR/LIFR CATEGORY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS
OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO GENERALLY MVFR OR VFR ON SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  67  54  74 /  40  20  10  40
INL  52  71  52  73 /  30  10  10  70
BRD  59  72  58  78 /  20  20  10  70
HYR  60  72  55  79 /  90  30  10  20
ASX  58  68  53  78 /  90  30  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 300005
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AT 315PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POTENT SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NW MANITOBA. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS SOME CLEARING MOVING INTO THE FAR
SE FORECAST AREA DUE TO CLEARER SKIES FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARDS WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE WARM
FRONT IN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH. THE WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NW WISCONSIN. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.8 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS TRAIN.
THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT AND CLEARING COULD CAUSE ENOUGH HEATING TO CAUSE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SOME STRONG STORMS.

TONIGHT...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. A SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SW
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND AND HIGH
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR A TRAILING TROUGH.
THE MORNING LOOKS CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR IN FEATURING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN CONUS THIS PERIOD. AFTER SOME INITIAL
COLLAPSE OF MID LVL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD A TREND TOWARDS A
LARGE BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE TOO EARLY TO TELL THIS MAY PLACE PARTS OF THE
REGION WITHIN A FAVORABLE CORRIDOR OF HIGH PWS AND POTENTIAL
MCS/MCC DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FEW DAYS OF GENERALLY
BENIGN WX SHOULD DEVELOP FROM LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE AREA
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A PASSING SFC HIGH THAT MOVES FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH SOME POPS ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE FCST TUESDAY THE MOISTURE/LIFT IS LIMITED AND LATER SHIFTS MAY
BE ABLE TO REDUCE/ELIMINATE WHAT IS CURRENTLY FCST. THE NEXT
CREDIBLE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED LIFT AND MSTR TRANSPORT WILL BE LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BDRY ARRIVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. BY THAT
TIME THE AREA OF FORCING SHOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT PWATS TO ACT
UPON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IN
FACT...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE AND LARGELY SETTLE INTO THE
IFR/LIFR CATEGORY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS
OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO GENERALLY MVFR OR VFR ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  67  54  74 /  40  10  10  40
INL  52  71  52  73 /  30   0  10  70
BRD  59  72  58  78 /  30  20  10  70
HYR  60  72  55  79 /  70  20  10  20
ASX  58  68  53  78 /  70  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300005
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AT 315PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POTENT SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NW MANITOBA. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS SOME CLEARING MOVING INTO THE FAR
SE FORECAST AREA DUE TO CLEARER SKIES FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARDS WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE WARM
FRONT IN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH. THE WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NW WISCONSIN. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.8 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS TRAIN.
THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT AND CLEARING COULD CAUSE ENOUGH HEATING TO CAUSE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SOME STRONG STORMS.

TONIGHT...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. A SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SW
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND AND HIGH
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR A TRAILING TROUGH.
THE MORNING LOOKS CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR IN FEATURING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN CONUS THIS PERIOD. AFTER SOME INITIAL
COLLAPSE OF MID LVL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD A TREND TOWARDS A
LARGE BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE TOO EARLY TO TELL THIS MAY PLACE PARTS OF THE
REGION WITHIN A FAVORABLE CORRIDOR OF HIGH PWS AND POTENTIAL
MCS/MCC DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FEW DAYS OF GENERALLY
BENIGN WX SHOULD DEVELOP FROM LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE AREA
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A PASSING SFC HIGH THAT MOVES FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH SOME POPS ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE FCST TUESDAY THE MOISTURE/LIFT IS LIMITED AND LATER SHIFTS MAY
BE ABLE TO REDUCE/ELIMINATE WHAT IS CURRENTLY FCST. THE NEXT
CREDIBLE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED LIFT AND MSTR TRANSPORT WILL BE LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BDRY ARRIVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. BY THAT
TIME THE AREA OF FORCING SHOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT PWATS TO ACT
UPON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 658 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. IN
FACT...CONDITIONS SHOULD DETERIORATE AND LARGELY SETTLE INTO THE
IFR/LIFR CATEGORY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. THERE WILL ALSO BE AREAS
OF FOG AND DRIZZLE AND SHOWERS AND STORMS AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO GENERALLY MVFR OR VFR ON SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  67  54  74 /  40  10  10  40
INL  52  71  52  73 /  30   0  10  70
BRD  59  72  58  78 /  30  20  10  70
HYR  60  72  55  79 /  70  20  10  20
ASX  58  68  53  78 /  70  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 292020
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AT 315PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POTENT SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NW MANITOBA. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS SOME CLEARING MOVING INTO THE FAR
SE FORECAST AREA DUE TO CLEARER SKIES FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARDS WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE WARM
FRONT IN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH. THE WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NW WISCONSIN. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.8 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS TRAIN.
THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT AND CLEARING COULD CAUSE ENOUGH HEATING TO CAUSE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SOME STRONG STORMS.

TONIGHT...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. A SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SW
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND AND HIGH
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR A TRAILING TROUGH.
THE MORNING LOOKS CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR IN FEATURING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN CONUS THIS PERIOD. AFTER SOME INITIAL
COLLAPSE OF MID LVL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD A TREND TOWARDS A
LARGE BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE TOO EARLY TO TELL THIS MAY PLACE PARTS OF THE
REGION WITHIN A FAVORABLE CORRIDOR OF HIGH PWS AND POTENTIAL
MCS/MCC DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FEW DAYS OF GENERALLY
BENIGN WX SHOULD DEVELOP FROM LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE AREA
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A PASSING SFC HIGH THAT MOVES FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH SOME POPS ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE FCST TUESDAY THE MOISTURE/LIFT IS LIMITED AND LATER SHIFTS MAY
BE ABLE TO REDUCE/ELIMINATE WHAT IS CURRENTLY FCST. THE NEXT
CREDIBLE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED LIFT AND MSTR TRANSPORT WILL BE LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BDRY ARRIVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. BY THAT
TIME THE AREA OF FORCING SHOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT PWATS TO ACT
UPON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR KHYR THROUGH
AFTN/EARLY EVENING WHILE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
TOWARDS WRN TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
MVFR MAY DEVELOP AT SOME SITES...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT. A
PERIOD OF BR/FG IS POSSIBLE WITH FRNTL BDRY AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW
LVL MOIST AXIS THIS EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SFC PRESS
GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT LOWER LVL CLOUDS AND
BR/FG BY 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  67  54  74 /  20  10  10  40
INL  52  71  52  73 /  30   0  10  70
BRD  59  72  58  78 /  20  20  10  70
HYR  60  72  55  79 /  60  20  10  20
ASX  58  68  53  78 /  70  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON







000
FXUS63 KDLH 292020
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

AT 315PM...THERE WAS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND POTENT SHORTWAVE
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THERE WAS AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH
OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NW MANITOBA. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN. MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
HAD CLOUDY SKIES...BUT THERE WAS SOME CLEARING MOVING INTO THE FAR
SE FORECAST AREA DUE TO CLEARER SKIES FARTHER SOUTH IN THE WARM
SECTOR. SHOWERS AND STORMS WERE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND...MAINLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WILL LIFT TOWARDS WISCONSIN. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE MOVING EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND THE WARM
FRONT IN WISCONSIN WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTH. THE WARM SOUTHERLY
FLOW AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO NW WISCONSIN. THE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE AROUND 1.8 INCHES...SO HEAVY RAIN IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IF THE STORMS TRAIN.
THERE IS A VERY LOW RISK OF GUSTY WINDS WITH THUNDERSTORMS IN OUR
FAR SE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE APPROACHING WARM
FRONT AND CLEARING COULD CAUSE ENOUGH HEATING TO CAUSE ENOUGH
INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN SOME STRONG STORMS.

TONIGHT...THE PCPN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT AS
THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT SHIFTS FARTHER EAST. A SHORTWAVE IN WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON COULD BRING ISOLATED SHOWERS TO THE SW
FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF LIGHT WIND AND HIGH
MOISTURE COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG FOR PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY KEEP THE FORECAST AREA
DRY...BUT THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE FAR SE FORECAST
AREA...AS WELL AS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2 DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR A TRAILING TROUGH.
THE MORNING LOOKS CLOUDY...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE SCATTERING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 60S
AND LOW 70S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR IN FEATURING A PROGRESSIVE FLOW
ALOFT ACROSS THE NRN CONUS THIS PERIOD. AFTER SOME INITIAL
COLLAPSE OF MID LVL HEIGHTS EARLY IN THE PERIOD A TREND TOWARDS A
LARGE BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. WHILE TOO EARLY TO TELL THIS MAY PLACE PARTS OF THE
REGION WITHIN A FAVORABLE CORRIDOR OF HIGH PWS AND POTENTIAL
MCS/MCC DEVELOPMENT. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A FEW DAYS OF GENERALLY
BENIGN WX SHOULD DEVELOP FROM LATE MONDAY INTO THURSDAY. THE AREA
WILL BE INFLUENCED BY A PASSING SFC HIGH THAT MOVES FROM THE CNTRL
PLAINS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. ALTHOUGH SOME POPS ARE CURRENTLY IN
THE FCST TUESDAY THE MOISTURE/LIFT IS LIMITED AND LATER SHIFTS MAY
BE ABLE TO REDUCE/ELIMINATE WHAT IS CURRENTLY FCST. THE NEXT
CREDIBLE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED LIFT AND MSTR TRANSPORT WILL BE LATE
IN THE WEEK AS A FRONTAL BDRY ARRIVES FROM THE NRN PLAINS. BY THAT
TIME THE AREA OF FORCING SHOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT PWATS TO ACT
UPON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR KHYR THROUGH
AFTN/EARLY EVENING WHILE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
TOWARDS WRN TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
MVFR MAY DEVELOP AT SOME SITES...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT. A
PERIOD OF BR/FG IS POSSIBLE WITH FRNTL BDRY AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW
LVL MOIST AXIS THIS EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SFC PRESS
GRADIENT BEHIND FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT LOWER LVL CLOUDS AND
BR/FG BY 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  67  54  74 /  20  10  10  40
INL  52  71  52  73 /  30   0  10  70
BRD  59  72  58  78 /  20  20  10  70
HYR  60  72  55  79 /  60  20  10  20
ASX  58  68  53  78 /  70  20  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON








000
FXUS63 KDLH 291805 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
105 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS TRACKING NEWD THROUGH NE MN THIS
MORNING...THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS AND SPREAD TO THE NE
THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY OVER NW WI.
AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS DECREASES THIS EVENING AS
THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...BUT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR WEAK
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH DECENT
WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO SRN MN. A SFC LOW
POSITIONED AROUND SIOUX FALLS WILL TRACK TO THE EAST AND COMBINE
WITH A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH MOVING IN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
TODAY. AN AREA OF MDT-HVY SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS SRN MN THIS MORNING...NORTH OF A SFC WARM FRONT DRAPED
OVER SRN IA. THIS AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NWD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO AND EXPAND
NEWD THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING UPPER
TROUGH COMBINED WITH WAA...DEEP MOISTURE...AND INCREASING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXPANSION OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NW WI...AND LIGHTNING. COULD SEE AROUND
AN INCH OF RAINFALL FROM SIREN TO ASHLAND AND AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST. OTHER LOCATIONS EXPECTING TO RECEIVE AROUND A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH.

THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NRN
WI LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING AND ALLOW SHOWERS TO LINGER
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP AND BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
WEAK STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
FROM THE APPROACHING SFC TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL INDUCE A MODEST
LAKE BREEZE...WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...AND KEEP TEMPS ADJACENT
TO LS A TAD COOLER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S DUE TO AN ABUNDANT AMT OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE ANOTHER LAKE WIND WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING WITH A SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TONIGHT THAN YESTERDAY WITH A
LATE PERIOD SYSTEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST AREAS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN OK AGREEMENT
REGARDING A SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER. WE
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY WITH PWAT VALUES
RISING TO 1.6 TO 1.85 PER THE GFS/NAM. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OVER WESTERN AREAS...THEN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WITH SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND STRONG FORCING. IF PWAT
VALUES RISE TO 1.75 INCHES...IT WILL BE NEAR 3SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE FROM 30-40 KNOTS AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NO REAL ORGANIZED
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
THE MODELS YESTERDAY WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE 00Z MODELS ARE NOT
IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AND ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SEVENTIES...WITH SUNDAY THE WARMEST DAY FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM  CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR KHYR THROUGH
AFTN/EARLY EVENING WHILE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
TOWARDS WRN TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
MVFR MAY DEVELOP AT SOME SITES...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT. A PERIOD OF BR/FG
IS POSSIBLE WITH FRNTL BDRY AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LVL MOIST AXIS
THIS EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SFC PRESS GRADIENT BEHIND
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT LOWER LVL CLOUDS AND BR/FG BY 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  57  69  55 /  80  30  20  10
INL  72  53  73  52 /  50  30   0  10
BRD  73  60  74  59 /  80  20  10  20
HYR  71  59  72  57 /  70  70  20  10
ASX  72  56  69  54 /  90  70  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...CANNON







000
FXUS63 KDLH 291805 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
105 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
CURRENT RAIN SHOWERS TRACKING NEWD THROUGH NE MN THIS
MORNING...THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
FROM THE SOUTH IN THE NEXT 2 TO 3 HOURS AND SPREAD TO THE NE
THROUGH THE DAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THE STORMS WILL BE HEAVY
RAIN AND LIGHTNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL LIKELY OVER NW WI.
AREAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF STORMS DECREASES THIS EVENING AS
THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST...BUT SLIGHT CHANCES FOR WEAK
CONVECTIVE SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.

UPPER WAVE CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH DECENT
WAA AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY INTO SRN MN. A SFC LOW
POSITIONED AROUND SIOUX FALLS WILL TRACK TO THE EAST AND COMBINE
WITH A COLD FRONT/SFC TROUGH MOVING IN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
TODAY. AN AREA OF MDT-HVY SHOWERS AND ISO STORMS HAS DEVELOPED
ACROSS SRN MN THIS MORNING...NORTH OF A SFC WARM FRONT DRAPED
OVER SRN IA. THIS AREA OF ELEVATED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
NWD INTO OUR FORECAST AREA IN THE NEXT 3 HOURS OR SO AND EXPAND
NEWD THROUGH THE REGION. LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM THE INCOMING UPPER
TROUGH COMBINED WITH WAA...DEEP MOISTURE...AND INCREASING
ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL ALL CONTRIBUTE TO AN EXPANSION OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE AREA TODAY. THE MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS NW WI...AND LIGHTNING. COULD SEE AROUND
AN INCH OF RAINFALL FROM SIREN TO ASHLAND AND AREAS SOUTH AND
EAST. OTHER LOCATIONS EXPECTING TO RECEIVE AROUND A QUARTER TO
HALF INCH.

THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL BE POSITIONED OVER NRN
WI LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING AND ALLOW SHOWERS TO LINGER
ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
QUICKLY FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY...BUT NOT BEFORE AFTERNOON
CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOP AND BRING IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
WEAK STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOL WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE
60S AND LOWER 70S. STRONG PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS WRN LAKE SUPERIOR
FROM THE APPROACHING SFC TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL INDUCE A MODEST
LAKE BREEZE...WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH...AND KEEP TEMPS ADJACENT
TO LS A TAD COOLER. LOWS TONIGHT WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S DUE TO AN ABUNDANT AMT OF CLOUD COVER. TEMPS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WARMER ON SAT WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT
AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE ANOTHER LAKE WIND WILL KEEP HIGHS ONLY
IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS WITH THE BEST CHANCE OCCURRING WITH A SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENCE IS LOWER TONIGHT THAN YESTERDAY WITH A
LATE PERIOD SYSTEM.

SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST AREAS AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE
RIDGE MOVES THROUGH. THE GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN OK AGREEMENT
REGARDING A SHORTWAVE/FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL IMPACT THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT THE NAM IS QUITE A BIT SLOWER. WE
FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE GFS/ECMWF. A MOIST AIRMASS WILL ADVECT INTO
THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT...CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY WITH PWAT VALUES
RISING TO 1.6 TO 1.85 PER THE GFS/NAM. SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP
AND BECOME LIKELY DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OVER WESTERN AREAS...THEN A
WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIP WILL MOVE EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND THEN
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A HEAVY RAIN THREAT
WITH SUCH A MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AND STRONG FORCING. IF PWAT
VALUES RISE TO 1.75 INCHES...IT WILL BE NEAR 3SD ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. THERE WILL ALSO BE A THREAT FOR SEVERE
STORMS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE FROM 30-40 KNOTS AND AMPLE
INSTABILITY. THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST
TO EAST MONDAY.

THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL WITH SEVERAL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD. NO REAL ORGANIZED
SIGNIFICANT SYSTEMS LOOK TO OCCUR THROUGH THE REST OF THE EXTENDED.
THE MODELS YESTERDAY WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT DEVELOPING A
STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE 00Z MODELS ARE NOT
IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AND ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE LATE IN THE PERIOD.

HIGHS FOR MOST AREAS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE
SEVENTIES...WITH SUNDAY THE WARMEST DAY FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1242 PM  CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE NEAR KHYR THROUGH
AFTN/EARLY EVENING WHILE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT MAKES ITS WAY
TOWARDS WRN TERMINALS. ALTHOUGH A POSSIBLE BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW
MVFR MAY DEVELOP AT SOME SITES...LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH AFTERNOON AHEAD OF FRONT. A PERIOD OF BR/FG
IS POSSIBLE WITH FRNTL BDRY AND ITS ASSOCIATED LOW LVL MOIST AXIS
THIS EVENING AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SFC PRESS GRADIENT BEHIND
FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO MIX OUT LOWER LVL CLOUDS AND BR/FG BY 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  66  57  69  55 /  80  30  20  10
INL  72  53  73  52 /  50  30   0  10
BRD  73  60  74  59 /  80  20  10  20
HYR  71  59  72  57 /  70  70  20  10
ASX  72  56  69  54 /  90  70  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$


SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...CANNON








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