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000
FXUS63 KDLH 210548
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1248 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

A LAKE BREEZE IS MOVING INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS MOMENT.
SFC WIND HAS SWITCHED TO NE FOR A BRIEF TIME..BUT THEN GONE LIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO NE ND WITH SOME CI AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IN ND...MID CLOUDS HAVE
FORMED. FAIRLY DRY BELOW 10K FT AND NO RAIN BEING REPORTED
UNDERNEATH INCREASING RADAR RETURNS IN NE ND. HAVE DIALED BACK ON
THE POPS TO JUST OVER A PORTION OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR/RAP/LOCAL WRF MODEL
RUNS. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 532 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS INDICATE THE RAIN WILL STAY WELL S
OF PRICE COUNTY WI AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION. MADE SOME OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN ELONGATED SFC RIDGE STRETCHES FROM CTRL MANITOBA ACROSS THE NRN
CWA AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED SUNNY SKIES TO
COVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SRN EDGE OF PRICE
COUNTY WHERE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN FRONTAL BDRY ARE MOVING
ENE.  AS OR EARLY AFTN TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOW 70S IN A FEW
SPOTS OTHERWISE 60S ARE MORE COMMON AT INLAND LOCATIONS WITH 50S AND
A FEW 40S CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

TONIGHT...A WESTERLY MID LVL FLOW WILL KEEP THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE PATTERN IN PLACE. TWO FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE OLD FRONTAL
BDRY LOCATED OVER SRN MN AND THE APPROACHING SFC/MID LVL LOW OVER
ND. SHOULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS
ND SYSTEM HEADS OUR WAY. THE FRONTAL BDRY SOUTH OF THE CWA WILL
PUSH NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE OVER SCTRL/SERN CWA. BR/FG IS POSSIBLE OVER SRN CWA IN
ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ND
WILL PUSH INTO THE NWRN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIP.

TOMORROW...VERY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SFC/MID LVL FEATURES SO EXPECT
ANY LIGHT PRECIP TO QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HRS. MAIN DISTINGUISHING WEATHER ELEMENT WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. TEMPERATURES MAY SHOW A NON
DIURNAL TREND BASED ON TIMING OF FRONT OVER MN ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY HOWEVER STILL ABOVE CLIMO IN
MOST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  NIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  IT WILL BE A REMAIN
DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE STORMS SYSTEM WILL START TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.  IT IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE MODELS SOMEWHAT
DIFFERENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW BUT BOTH SUGGEST PTYPE WILL BE
ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  THE GFS HAS THE CENTER
IN SOUTHERN MN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER IN WESTERN IOWA AT 12Z
THU.  THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE WI/UPPER MI BORDER ON
THE GFS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER AROUND EAU.  WILL USE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR THE SOLUTION.  AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...THE MODELS STILL INDICATES CAPE ALONG WITH SEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN CURRENT GRIDS.  COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE E.  THERE WILL
BE A CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH SLEET POSSIBLE.
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THIS TIME.   WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS..THE TIMING AND PTYPE COULD CHANGE IN THE COMING RUNS.
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT HAS ADVANCED EASTWARD INTO
WESTERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS EVENING...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE
BEEN REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THE FRONT
SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE MINNESOTA TERMINALS BEFORE 12Z AND THROUGH HYR
MID-MORNING. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL AFFECT
HIB...INL...AND DLH AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE. KEPT A MENTION OF
VCSH AT BRD AND HYR. CLOUDS ARE STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN AND WILL AFFECT HYR OVERNIGHT. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT MAINLY MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL. HOWEVER...SITES FARTHER SOUTH HAVE REPORTED CIGS AS LOW
AS 800 FT WITHIN THE LAST HOUR. WINDS WILL BE QUITE BREEZY ON
MONDAY AND HAVE MAINTAINED HIGHER SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  50  32  47 /   0   0   0  40
INL  31  50  32  52 /  10   0  10  40
BRD  34  56  37  52 /   0   0  10  50
HYR  33  52  31  52 /   0   0   0  40
ASX  33  47  31  50 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...HUYCK








000
FXUS63 KDLH 210130 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
829 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

A LAKE BREEZE IS MOVING INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS MOMENT.
SFC WIND HAS SWITCHED TO NE FOR A BRIEF TIME..BUT THEN GONE LIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO NE ND WITH SOME CI AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IN ND...MID CLOUDS HAVE
FORMED. FAIRLY DRY BELOW 10K FT AND NO RAIN BEING REPORTED
UNDERNEATH INCREASING RADAR RETURNS IN NE ND. HAVE DIALED BACK ON
THE POPS TO JUST OVER A PORTION OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR/RAP/LOCAL WRF MODEL
RUNS. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 532 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS INDICATE THE RAIN WILL STAY WELL S
OF PRICE COUNTY WI AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION. MADE SOME OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN ELONGATED SFC RIDGE STRETCHES FROM CTRL MANITOBA ACROSS THE NRN
CWA AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED SUNNY SKIES TO
COVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SRN EDGE OF PRICE
COUNTY WHERE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN FRONTAL BDRY ARE MOVING
ENE.  AS OR EARLY AFTN TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOW 70S IN A FEW
SPOTS OTHERWISE 60S ARE MORE COMMON AT INLAND LOCATIONS WITH 50S AND
A FEW 40S CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

TONIGHT...A WESTERLY MID LVL FLOW WILL KEEP THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE PATTERN IN PLACE. TWO FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE OLD FRONTAL
BDRY LOCATED OVER SRN MN AND THE APPROACHING SFC/MID LVL LOW OVER
ND. SHOULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS
ND SYSTEM HEADS OUR WAY. THE FRONTAL BDRY SOUTH OF THE CWA WILL
PUSH NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE OVER SCTRL/SERN CWA. BR/FG IS POSSIBLE OVER SRN CWA IN
ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ND
WILL PUSH INTO THE NWRN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIP.

TOMORROW...VERY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SFC/MID LVL FEATURES SO EXPECT
ANY LIGHT PRECIP TO QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HRS. MAIN DISTINGUISHING WEATHER ELEMENT WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. TEMPERATURES MAY SHOW A NON
DIURNAL TREND BASED ON TIMING OF FRONT OVER MN ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY HOWEVER STILL ABOVE CLIMO IN
MOST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  NIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  IT WILL BE A REMAIN
DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE STORMS SYSTEM WILL START TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.  IT IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE MODELS SOMEWHAT
DIFFERENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW BUT BOTH SUGGEST PTYPE WILL BE
ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  THE GFS HAS THE CENTER
IN SOUTHERN MN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER IN WESTERN IOWA AT 12Z
THU.  THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE WI/UPPER MI BORDER ON
THE GFS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER AROUND EAU.  WILL USE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR THE SOLUTION.  AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...THE MODELS STILL INDICATES CAPE ALONG WITH SEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN CURRENT GRIDS.  COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE E.  THERE WILL
BE A CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH SLEET POSSIBLE.
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THIS TIME.   WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS..THE TIMING AND PTYPE COULD CHANGE IN THE COMING RUNS.
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH YIELDED CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT EASTWARD THIS EVENING. WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN VARIABLE...WITH A SUBTLE VEERING TREND EXPECTED
THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN APPROACHING LOW TONIGHT WILL INTRODUCE LOW
CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO ALL TERMINALS LATE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE SHOWERS...WINDS
WILL TURN NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME GUSTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  59  33  50 /  10  20   0   0
INL  40  53  31  50 /  20  20  10   0
BRD  44  61  34  56 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  38  64  33  52 /   0  20   0   0
ASX  33  59  33  47 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...HUYCK










000
FXUS63 KDLH 210127
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
827 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 826 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

A LAKE BREEZE IS MOVING INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AT THIS MOMENT.
SFC WIND HAS SWITCHED TO NE FOR A BRIEF TIME..BUT THEN GONE LIGHT.
MEANWHILE...A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING INTO NE ND WITH SOME CI AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. IN THE VCNTY OF THE FRONT IN ND...MID CLOUDS HAVE
FORMED. FAIRLY DRY BELOW 10K FT AND NO RAIN BEING REPORTED
UNDERNEATH INCREASING RADAR RETURNS IN NE ND. HAVE DIALED BACK ON
THE POPS TO JUST OVER A PORTION OF KOOCHICHING COUNTY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST HRRR/RAP/LOCAL WRF MODEL
RUNS. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 532 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS INDICATE THE RAIN WILL STAY WELL S
OF PRICE COUNTY WI AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION. MADE SOME OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN ELONGATED SFC RIDGE STRETCHES FROM CTRL MANITOBA ACROSS THE NRN
CWA AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED SUNNY SKIES TO
COVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SRN EDGE OF PRICE
COUNTY WHERE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN FRONTAL BDRY ARE MOVING
ENE.  AS OR EARLY AFTN TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOW 70S IN A FEW
SPOTS OTHERWISE 60S ARE MORE COMMON AT INLAND LOCATIONS WITH 50S AND
A FEW 40S CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

TONIGHT...A WESTERLY MID LVL FLOW WILL KEEP THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE PATTERN IN PLACE. TWO FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE OLD FRONTAL
BDRY LOCATED OVER SRN MN AND THE APPROACHING SFC/MID LVL LOW OVER
ND. SHOULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS
ND SYSTEM HEADS OUR WAY. THE FRONTAL BDRY SOUTH OF THE CWA WILL
PUSH NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE OVER SCTRL/SERN CWA. BR/FG IS POSSIBLE OVER SRN CWA IN
ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ND
WILL PUSH INTO THE NWRN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIP.

TOMORROW...VERY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SFC/MID LVL FEATURES SO EXPECT
ANY LIGHT PRECIP TO QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HRS. MAIN DISTINGUISHING WEATHER ELEMENT WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. TEMPERATURES MAY SHOW A NON
DIURNAL TREND BASED ON TIMING OF FRONT OVER MN ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY HOWEVER STILL ABOVE CLIMO IN
MOST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  NIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  IT WILL BE A REMAIN
DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE STORMS SYSTEM WILL START TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.  IT IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE MODELS SOMEWHAT
DIFFERENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW BUT BOTH SUGGEST PTYPE WILL BE
ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  THE GFS HAS THE CENTER
IN SOUTHERN MN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER IN WESTERN IOWA AT 12Z
THU.  THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE WI/UPPER MI BORDER ON
THE GFS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER AROUND EAU.  WILL USE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR THE SOLUTION.  AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...THE MODELS STILL INDICATES CAPE ALONG WITH SEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN CURRENT GRIDS.  COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE E.  THERE WILL
BE A CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH SLEET POSSIBLE.
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THIS TIME.   WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS..THE TIMING AND PTYPE COULD CHANGE IN THE COMING RUNS.
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH YIELDED CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT WESTWARD THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN VARIABLE...WITH A SUBTLE VEERING TREND EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. AN APPROACHING LOW TONIGHT WILL INTRODUCE LOW CLOUDS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO ALL TERMINALS LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE SHOWERS...WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME GUSTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  59  33  50 /  10  20   0   0
INL  40  53  31  50 /  20  20  10   0
BRD  44  61  34  56 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  38  64  33  52 /   0  20   0   0
ASX  33  59  33  47 /   0  20   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...HUYCK








000
FXUS63 KDLH 202353
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 532 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS INDICATE THE RAIN WILL STAY WELL S
OF PRICE COUNTY WI AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION. MADE SOME OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN ELONGATED SFC RIDGE STRETCHES FROM CTRL MANITOBA ACROSS THE NRN
CWA AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED SUNNY SKIES TO
COVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SRN EDGE OF PRICE
COUNTY WHERE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN FRONTAL BDRY ARE MOVING
ENE.  AS OR EARLY AFTN TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOW 70S IN A FEW
SPOTS OTHERWISE 60S ARE MORE COMMON AT INLAND LOCATIONS WITH 50S AND
A FEW 40S CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

TONIGHT...A WESTERLY MID LVL FLOW WILL KEEP THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE PATTERN IN PLACE. TWO FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE OLD FRONTAL
BDRY LOCATED OVER SRN MN AND THE APPROACHING SFC/MID LVL LOW OVER
ND. SHOULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS
ND SYSTEM HEADS OUR WAY. THE FRONTAL BDRY SOUTH OF THE CWA WILL
PUSH NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE OVER SCTRL/SERN CWA. BR/FG IS POSSIBLE OVER SRN CWA IN
ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ND
WILL PUSH INTO THE NWRN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIP.

TOMORROW...VERY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SFC/MID LVL FEATURES SO EXPECT
ANY LIGHT PRECIP TO QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HRS. MAIN DISTINGUISHING WEATHER ELEMENT WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. TEMPERATURES MAY SHOW A NON
DIURNAL TREND BASED ON TIMING OF FRONT OVER MN ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY HOWEVER STILL ABOVE CLIMO IN
MOST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  NIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  IT WILL BE A REMAIN
DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE STORMS SYSTEM WILL START TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.  IT IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE MODELS SOMEWHAT
DIFFERENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW BUT BOTH SUGGEST PTYPE WILL BE
ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  THE GFS HAS THE CENTER
IN SOUTHERN MN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER IN WESTERN IOWA AT 12Z
THU.  THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE WI/UPPER MI BORDER ON
THE GFS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER AROUND EAU.  WILL USE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR THE SOLUTION.  AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...THE MODELS STILL INDICATES CAPE ALONG WITH SEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN CURRENT GRIDS.  COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE E.  THERE WILL
BE A CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH SLEET POSSIBLE.
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THIS TIME.   WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS..THE TIMING AND PTYPE COULD CHANGE IN THE COMING RUNS.
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WHICH YIELDED CLEAR SKIES AND RELATIVELY
LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT WESTWARD THIS EVENING. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN VARIABLE...WITH A SUBTLE VEERING TREND EXPECTED THIS
EVENING. AN APPROACHING LOW TONIGHT WILL INTRODUCE LOW CLOUDS AND
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO ALL TERMINALS LATE OVERNIGHT THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BEHIND THE SHOWERS...WINDS WILL TURN
NORTHWESTERLY AND BECOME GUSTY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  59  33  50 /  20  20   0   0
INL  40  53  31  50 /  20  20  10   0
BRD  44  61  34  56 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  38  64  33  52 /  20  20   0   0
ASX  33  59  33  47 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...HUYCK









000
FXUS63 KDLH 202232
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
532 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 532 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS INDICATE THE RAIN WILL STAY WELL S
OF PRICE COUNTY WI AND HAVE REMOVED THE MENTION. MADE SOME OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN ELONGATED SFC RIDGE STRETCHES FROM CTRL MANITOBA ACROSS THE NRN
CWA AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED SUNNY SKIES TO
COVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SRN EDGE OF PRICE
COUNTY WHERE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN FRONTAL BDRY ARE MOVING
ENE.  AS OR EARLY AFTN TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOW 70S IN A FEW
SPOTS OTHERWISE 60S ARE MORE COMMON AT INLAND LOCATIONS WITH 50S AND
A FEW 40S CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

TONIGHT...A WESTERLY MID LVL FLOW WILL KEEP THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE PATTERN IN PLACE. TWO FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE OLD FRONTAL
BDRY LOCATED OVER SRN MN AND THE APPROACHING SFC/MID LVL LOW OVER
ND. SHOULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS
ND SYSTEM HEADS OUR WAY. THE FRONTAL BDRY SOUTH OF THE CWA WILL
PUSH NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE OVER SCTRL/SERN CWA. BR/FG IS POSSIBLE OVER SRN CWA IN
ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN ND
WILL PUSH INTO THE NWRN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIP.

TOMORROW...VERY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SFC/MID LVL FEATURES SO EXPECT
ANY LIGHT PRECIP TO QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HRS. MAIN DISTINGUISHING WEATHER ELEMENT WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. TEMPERATURES MAY SHOW A NON
DIURNAL TREND BASED ON TIMING OF FRONT OVER MN ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY HOWEVER STILL ABOVE CLIMO IN
MOST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  NIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  IT WILL BE A REMAIN
DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE STORMS SYSTEM WILL START TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.  IT IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE MODELS SOMEWHAT
DIFFERENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW BUT BOTH SUGGEST PTYPE WILL BE
ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  THE GFS HAS THE CENTER
IN SOUTHERN MN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER IN WESTERN IOWA AT 12Z
THU.  THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE WI/UPPER MI BORDER ON
THE GFS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER AROUND EAU.  WILL USE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR THE SOLUTION.  AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...THE MODELS STILL INDICATES CAPE ALONG WITH SEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN CURRENT GRIDS.  COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE E.  THERE WILL
BE A CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH SLEET POSSIBLE.
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THIS TIME.   WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS..THE TIMING AND PTYPE COULD CHANGE IN THE COMING RUNS.
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
RAIN SHOWERS AT THE INL TAF SITE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  59  33  50 /  20  20   0   0
INL  40  53  31  50 /  20  20  10   0
BRD  44  61  34  56 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  38  64  33  52 /  20  20   0   0
ASX  33  59  33  47 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 202005
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
305 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

AN ELONGATED SFC RIDGE STRETCHES FROM CTRL MANITOBA ACROSS THE NRN
CWA AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. DRY AIR MASS HAS ALLOWED SUNNY SKIES TO
COVER MOST OF THE REGION. THE EXCEPTION IS THE SRN EDGE OF PRICE
COUNTY WHERE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SRN FRONTAL BDRY ARE MOVING
ENE.  AS OR EARLY AFTN TEMPS HAVE SOARED INTO THE LOW 70S IN A FEW
SPOTS OTHERWISE 60S ARE MORE COMMON AT INLAND LOCATIONS WITH 50S AND
A FEW 40S CLOSE TO LAKE SUPERIOR.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

TONIGHT...A WESTERLY MID LVL FLOW WILL KEEP THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE PATTERN IN PLACE. TWO FEATURES OF NOTE ARE THE OLD FRONTAL
BDRY LOCATED OVER SRN MN AND THE APPROACHING SFC/MID LVL LOW OVER
NODAK. SHOULD SEE RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EVENING BEFORE WARM ADVECTION REGIME DEVELOPS FROM WEST TO EAST AS
NODAK SYSTEM HEADS OUR WAY. THE FRONTAL BDRY SOUTH OF THE CWA WILL
PUSH NORTH OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOME LIGHT RAIN
POSSIBLE OVER SCTRL/SERN CWA. BR/FG IS POSSIBLE OVER SRN CWA IN
ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT. MEANWHILE THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IN NODAK
WILL PUSH INTO THE NWRN CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH LIGHT PRECIP.

TOMORROW...VERY FAST MOVEMENT OF THE SFC/MID LVL FEATURES SO EXPECT
ANY LIGHT PRECIP TO QUICKLY SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE
MORNING HRS. MAIN DISTINGUISHING WEATHER ELEMENT WILL BE THE GUSTY
WINDS DEVELOPING BEHIND THE COLD FROPA. TEMPERATURES MAY SHOW A NON
DIURNAL TREND BASED ON TIMING OF FRONT OVER MN ZONES. TEMPS WILL BE
ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES LOWER THAN SUNDAY HOWEVER STILL ABOVE CLIMO IN
MOST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS THE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE REGION
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.  NIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
ON TUESDAY WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.  IT WILL BE A REMAIN
DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.   RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL BE IN
THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

THE STORMS SYSTEM WILL START TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.  IT IS A SLOW MOVING SYSTEM WITH THE MODELS SOMEWHAT
DIFFERENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW BUT BOTH SUGGEST PTYPE WILL BE
ALL RAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.  THE GFS HAS THE CENTER
IN SOUTHERN MN WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER IN WESTERN IOWA AT 12Z
THU.  THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL BE NEAR THE WI/UPPER MI BORDER ON
THE GFS WHILE THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER AROUND EAU.  WILL USE A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MODELS FOR THE SOLUTION.  AS INDICATED BY THE
PREVIOUS SHIFT...THE MODELS STILL INDICATES CAPE ALONG WITH SEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN CURRENT GRIDS.  COLDER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE E.  THERE WILL
BE A CHANGE OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIXTURE WITH SLEET POSSIBLE.
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS THIS TIME.   WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE
MODELS..THE TIMING AND PTYPE COULD CHANGE IN THE COMING RUNS.
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTRIBUTE INTO THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
RAIN SHOWERS AT THE INL TAF SITE OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  59  33  50 /  20  20   0   0
INL  40  53  31  50 /  20  20  10   0
BRD  44  61  34  56 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  38  64  33  52 /  20  20   0   0
ASX  33  59  33  47 /  10  20   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART










000
FXUS63 KDLH 201831
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
131 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO EXISTING GRIDS/ZFP. FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER
SERN PART OF THE CWA AS MIXING LAYER INCREASES FROM SUNSHINE. SOME
CONCERN THAT NEARSHORE MAX TEMPS MAY BE MODULATED BY MARINE
BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR NOW...FCST 2K FT WINDS SUGGEST ENOUGH OFFSHORE
PUSH TO LOWER PROBABILITY OF AN EARLY PUSH INLAND. ONLY CLOUDS OF
NOTE TODAY WILL BE OVER SERN CORNER OF THE REGION WHERE NRN FRINGE
OF CLOUDS FROM SRN FRONTAL BDRY ARE ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN CENTERED AROUND THE ON-GOING
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SRN SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS WELL...WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT ORIENTED NE-SW FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
BACK TOWARD SRN MN CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH AND PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
EXTREME SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY
AIR FROM THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY
AND ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA EXPECTED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE THE NEAR-SFC AIR MASS IS MORE MOIST AND CLOSER TO
SATURATION. VSBYS HAVE BEEN AROUND 3-5 MILES SO FAR THIS
MORNING...AND COULD POSSIBLY DIP TO AROUND 1 MI IN SOME LOCATIONS.
NO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.

A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY AND COMBINE WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH AND STRONG
SOLAR HEATING FROM THE SUNNY SKIES TO PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL START OUT WARM AND DRY BUT CHANGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TWO WEAK SYSTEMS APPROACH THE NORTHLAND. ONE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO SRN MN/SWRN WI AND CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AIR
MASS TO THE SOUTH...PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND ONCE AGAIN. THE OTHER SYSTEM WILL RIDE IN
FROM THE NW IN THE FORM OF A COLD UPPER LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE DYNAMIC...BUT NOT HAVE THE NECESSARY MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THE END RESULT IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN. TEMPS WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS BOTH NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE
60S AGAIN...BUT THE COLDER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS THERE BACK IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.  THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND
CLEAR...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD START OUT WITH RAIN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA.  ON THE SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WING WE
SHOULD ALSO GET SOME THUNDER...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH SOME FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME
WEAK LOW LEVEL CAPE.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE ON
THIS...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS COOLER AT THIS POINT THAN THE GFS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH TIMING IS GOING TO BE QUITE TRICKY.  THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE DEEPER AND SLOWER GFS.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THINGS FAIRLY GENERIC WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE EVENT
ENDS.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON PRECIP TYPE OR TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR NOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT...BUT EXPECT TO BE
MAKING CHANGES IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.

SATURDAY CHILLY BUT QUIET WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 131 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
RAIN SHOWERS AT THE INL TAF SITE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  38  60  33  52 /  10  10   0   0
INL  40  52  31  52 /  30  20  10   0
BRD  44  63  35  58 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  38  65  33  54 /  20  30   0   0
ASX  33  62  34  49 /  10  30   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 201446 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
946 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 941 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO EXISTING GRIDS/ZFP. FOG HAS DISSIPATED OVER
SERN PART OF THE CWA AS MIXING LAYER INCREASES FROM SUNSHINE. SOME
CONCERN THAT NEARSHORE MAX TEMPS MAY BE MODULATED BY MARINE
BOUNDARY LAYER. FOR NOW...FCST 2K FT WINDS SUGGEST ENOUGH OFFSHORE
PUSH TO LOWER PROBABILITY OF AN EARLY PUSH INLAND. ONLY CLOUDS OF
NOTE TODAY WILL BE OVER SERN CORNER OF THE REGION WHERE NRN FRINGE
OF CLOUDS FROM SRN FRONTAL BDRY ARE ADVECTING NORTHEASTWARD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN CENTERED AROUND THE ON-GOING
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SRN SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS WELL...WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT ORIENTED NE-SW FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
BACK TOWARD SRN MN CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH AND PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
EXTREME SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY
AIR FROM THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY
AND ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA EXPECTED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE THE NEAR-SFC AIR MASS IS MORE MOIST AND CLOSER TO
SATURATION. VSBYS HAVE BEEN AROUND 3-5 MILES SO FAR THIS
MORNING...AND COULD POSSIBLY DIP TO AROUND 1 MI IN SOME LOCATIONS.
NO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.

A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY AND COMBINE WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH AND STRONG
SOLAR HEATING FROM THE SUNNY SKIES TO PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL START OUT WARM AND DRY BUT CHANGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TWO WEAK SYSTEMS APPROACH THE NORTHLAND. ONE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO SRN MN/SWRN WI AND CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AIR
MASS TO THE SOUTH...PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND ONCE AGAIN. THE OTHER SYSTEM WILL RIDE IN
FROM THE NW IN THE FORM OF A COLD UPPER LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE DYNAMIC...BUT NOT HAVE THE NECESSARY MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THE END RESULT IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN. TEMPS WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS BOTH NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE
60S AGAIN...BUT THE COLDER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS THERE BACK IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.  THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND
CLEAR...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD START OUT WITH RAIN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA.  ON THE SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WING WE
SHOULD ALSO GET SOME THUNDER...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH SOME FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME
WEAK LOW LEVEL CAPE.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE ON
THIS...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS COOLER AT THIS POINT THAN THE GFS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH TIMING IS GOING TO BE QUITE TRICKY.  THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE DEEPER AND SLOWER GFS.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THINGS FAIRLY GENERIC WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE EVENT
ENDS.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON PRECIP TYPE OR TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR NOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT...BUT EXPECT TO BE
MAKING CHANGES IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.

SATURDAY CHILLY BUT QUIET WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT
KDLH...KHIB...AND KHYR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AT OR
ABOVE 3KFT...BUT SHOULD NOT GO BROKEN. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  38  60  33 /   0  10  10   0
INL  60  40  52  31 /   0  30  20  10
BRD  66  44  63  35 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  64  38  65  33 /  10  20  30   0
ASX  58  33  62  34 /  10  10  30   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 201137
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
637 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN CENTERED AROUND THE ON-GOING
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SRN SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS WELL...WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT ORIENTED NE-SW FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
BACK TOWARD SRN MN CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH AND PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
EXTREME SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY
AIR FROM THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY
AND ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA EXPECTED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE THE NEAR-SFC AIR MASS IS MORE MOIST AND CLOSER TO
SATURATION. VSBYS HAVE BEEN AROUND 3-5 MILES SO FAR THIS
MORNING...AND COULD POSSIBLY DIP TO AROUND 1 MI IN SOME LOCATIONS.
NO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.

A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY AND COMBINE WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH AND STRONG
SOLAR HEATING FROM THE SUNNY SKIES TO PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL START OUT WARM AND DRY BUT CHANGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TWO WEAK SYSTEMS APPROACH THE NORTHLAND. ONE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO SRN MN/SWRN WI AND CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AIR
MASS TO THE SOUTH...PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND ONCE AGAIN. THE OTHER SYSTEM WILL RIDE IN
FROM THE NW IN THE FORM OF A COLD UPPER LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE DYNAMIC...BUT NOT HAVE THE NECESSARY MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THE END RESULT IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN. TEMPS WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS BOTH NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE
60S AGAIN...BUT THE COLDER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS THERE BACK IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.  THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND
CLEAR...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD START OUT WITH RAIN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA.  ON THE SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WING WE
SHOULD ALSO GET SOME THUNDER...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH SOME FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME
WEAK LOW LEVEL CAPE.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE ON
THIS...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS COOLER AT THIS POINT THAN THE GFS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH TIMING IS GOING TO BE QUITE TRICKY.  THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE DEEPER AND SLOWER GFS.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THINGS FAIRLY GENERIC WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE EVENT
ENDS.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON PRECIP TYPE OR TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR NOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT...BUT EXPECT TO BE
MAKING CHANGES IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.

SATURDAY CHILLY BUT QUIET WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP A POTENTIAL FOR FOG AT
KDLH...KHIB...AND KHYR FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES TODAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. FEW TO
SCATTERED CUMULUS ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AT OR
ABOVE 3KFT...BUT SHOULD NOT GO BROKEN. SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS AFTER 06Z TONIGHT...BUT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  38  60  33 /  10  10  10   0
INL  60  40  52  31 /  10  30  20  10
BRD  68  44  63  35 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  63  38  65  33 /  10  20  30   0
ASX  56  33  62  34 /  10  10  30   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 200859
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
359 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN CENTERED AROUND THE ON-GOING
RAIN SHOWERS OVER SRN SAWYER AND PRICE COUNTIES THIS MORNING...THE
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING AS WELL...WARM TEMPERATURES
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE NEXT ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

A TRAILING WEAK COLD FRONT ORIENTED NE-SW FROM ERN LAKE SUPERIOR
BACK TOWARD SRN MN CONTINUES TO INTERACT WITH A MOIST AND WEAKLY
UNSTABLE AIR MASS TO THE SOUTH AND PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE
EXTREME SERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS BAND OF SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRACK TO THE EAST THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN FAIRLY ZONAL...HOWEVER THE PRESENCE OF VERY DRY
AIR FROM THE SFC RIDGE WILL ALLOW SKIES TO REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY
AND ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO THE WARM TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON.

IN ADDITION...THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF PATCHY FOG ACROSS THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA EXPECTED AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE THE NEAR-SFC AIR MASS IS MORE MOIST AND CLOSER TO
SATURATION. VSBYS HAVE BEEN AROUND 3-5 MILES SO FAR THIS
MORNING...AND COULD POSSIBLY DIP TO AROUND 1 MI IN SOME LOCATIONS.
NO WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED.

A RELATIVELY WARM AIR MASS WILL BUILD IN OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
TODAY AND COMBINE WITH WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH AND STRONG
SOLAR HEATING FROM THE SUNNY SKIES TO PRODUCE HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE 50S THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND WELL INTO THE 60S FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND.

FOR TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL START OUT WARM AND DRY BUT CHANGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS TWO WEAK SYSTEMS APPROACH THE NORTHLAND. ONE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH WILL MOVE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
NEWD INTO SRN MN/SWRN WI AND CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE MOIST AIR
MASS TO THE SOUTH...PRODUCING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SERN
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND ONCE AGAIN. THE OTHER SYSTEM WILL RIDE IN
FROM THE NW IN THE FORM OF A COLD UPPER LOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
SLIGHTLY MORE DYNAMIC...BUT NOT HAVE THE NECESSARY MOISTURE
AVAILABLE TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. THE END RESULT IS A
CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTH AND SOUTH...WITH MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN. TEMPS WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE 30S
AND LOWER 40S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 357 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

MONDAY THE COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO GENERATE SHOWERS BOTH NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST.
HOWEVER...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND CONDITIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY LATE AFTERNOON.  HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM AGAIN WITH HIGHS ACROSS THE SOUTH IN THE
60S AGAIN...BUT THE COLDER AIR BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST SHOULD
KEEP HIGHS THERE BACK IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S.  THE SURFACE RIDGE
BUILDING ACROSS THE AREA ON TUESDAY WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET AND
CLEAR...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE 50S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...AS A SLOW
MOVING UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.  THIS SYSTEM
SHOULD START OUT WITH RAIN AS THE WARM AIR ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS
THE AREA.  ON THE SOUTHERN FLANKS OF THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION WING WE
SHOULD ALSO GET SOME THUNDER...MAINLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH SOME FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND EVEN SOME
WEAK LOW LEVEL CAPE.  MODELS ARE IN GOOD ENOUGH AGREEMENT ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TO HAVE FAIRLY GOOD CONFIDENCE ON
THIS...THOUGH THE ECMWF IS COOLER AT THIS POINT THAN THE GFS.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN ALL RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY AS
WELL...THOUGH TIMING IS GOING TO BE QUITE TRICKY.  THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY THE COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO SURGE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WITH THE ECMWF FASTER THAN THE DEEPER AND SLOWER GFS.
FOR NOW HAVE KEPT THINGS FAIRLY GENERIC WITH A RAIN/SNOW MIX
OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY...WITH ALL SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE EVENT
ENDS.  CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH ON PRECIP TYPE OR TEMPERATURES BY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY ON THIS SYSTEM.  FOR NOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD TO BE COLDER THAN NORMAL THROUGHOUT...BUT EXPECT TO BE
MAKING CHANGES IN UPCOMING FORECASTS.

SATURDAY CHILLY BUT QUIET WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE MINNESOTA TERMINALS LATE THIS
EVENING...WHILE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER HYR. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF HYR. STILL ANTICIPATING AREAS OF FOG TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY APPEARS QUIET WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  38  60  33 /  10  10  10   0
INL  60  40  52  31 /  10  30  20  10
BRD  68  44  63  35 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  63  38  65  33 /  10  20  30   0
ASX  56  33  62  34 /  10  10  30   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...HUYCK








000
FXUS63 KDLH 200503
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1203 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA AT
11 PM. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE BECOMING LARGER IN VCNTY OF THIS
FRONT AND HAVE DIALED BACK ON THE PATCHY FOG MENTION. MAINTAINED
THE PATCHY FOG CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE SMALLER. HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS MENTIONED OVER SOUTHERN PRICE
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL WI AND MOVE TOWARD PRICE COUNTY. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

REMOVED THE RAIN MENTION FROM ALL BUT SOUTHERN IRON COUNTY AND
PRICE COUNTY THROUGH 02Z. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THESE
AREAS AFTER 02Z. MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER CTRL MANITOBA IS LIFTING ENE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO
THE WRN CWA. GUSTY SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
WHILE THE MAIN LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS HAS BEEN
PULLED INTO THE CTRL/ERN CWA COURTESY OF A LLJ MAXIMUM THIS
MORNING. ALONG THIS LLJ PRESENTLY IS A FINE LINE OF RW FROM NRN
IRON COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO SERN PINE COUNTY. BRIGHT BANDING WITHIN
RADAR ECHOES IS OCCURRING ALONG NRN EDGE OF LINE AS RADAR BEAM
INTERCEPTS NEAR FREEZING ZONE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS
OVER THE CWA WITH 65 AT KBRD AND 30 AT KCKC. CORE OF UPPER LEVEL
JET IS POSITIONED FROM NERN ND INTO NWRN ONTARIO AS 115KT
ISOTACH TRANSLATES ACROSS NWRN CORNER OF CWA. CLEARING HAS PUSHED
INTO WRN THIRD OF CWA AS DEEP LAYER DRYING PUSHES EAST. COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED ALONG WELL ORGANIZED LOW LVL THETAE GRADIENT FROM NEAR
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS TO KS32 TO KBIS. THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30/35KTS PER LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WARM FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES THIS EVENING
WITH AN AREA OF RW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE 85H MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM. WITH UPPER FLOW LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING WE
MAY SEE SLOWING OF THE SFC FEATURES OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NRN MN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS THE TWIN
PORTS BY 12Z. TOUGH CALL ON THE BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AS CONDITIONS
MAY INITIALLY FOG FORMATION BUT MIXING ATTRIBUTED TO APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY LIMIT TEMPORAL NATURE OVER NE MN. HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR FOG MAY BE OVER NWRN WISC WHERE RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OF FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED.

TOMORROW...SFC PRESS PATTERN TOMORROW WILL FEATURE THE PROGRESSION
OF A WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BY AFTN INITIAL
WARM FRONTAL BDRY WILL BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF CWA IN A
STATIONARY MODE. MEANWHILE COLD FRONTAL BDRY WILL RETREAT NORTH OF
THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE SERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA SO LOW POPS ARE MAINTAINED THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE BIG MESSAGE TOMORROW IS MORE WARMTH IN THE WRN
ZONES...AND WARMTH SPREADING EAST OVER REMAINDER OF CWA. NEAR
SHORE LOCATIONS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD AIR
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR NORTH SHORE IN COOK
AND LAKE COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS SYSTEM CONING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND AND MONDAY...A WEATHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE...SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN GRIDS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER AROUND A
SOLUTION.  BY 18Z THU...THE GFS HAS THE LOW CENTER IN SE ND AND THE
ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTER NEAR MPX.  BY 00Z FRI...THE GFS HAS THE
CENTER JUST EAST OF ABR AND THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH OF DLH.  UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE 12Z RUN INDICATES THE
PTYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME GOOD LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE SYSTEM
PULLS OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY O RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SKIES REMAIN CLEAR OVER THE MINNESOTA TERMINALS LATE THIS
EVENING...WHILE LINGERING LOW CLOUDS PERSIST OVER HYR. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHEASTERN
WISCONSIN. THE SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST BUT SHOULD REMAIN
SOUTH OF HYR. STILL ANTICIPATING AREAS OF FOG TO AFFECT ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. SUNDAY APPEARS QUIET WITH RELATIVELY LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  61  37  58 /  10   0  10  20
INL  28  59  39  59 /   0   0  30  20
BRD  34  67  42  61 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  35  65  37  63 /  40  10  10  20
ASX  36  60  34  57 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...HUYCK








000
FXUS63 KDLH 200416
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1116 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1112 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FA AT
11 PM. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE BECOMING LARGER IN VCNTY OF THIS
FRONT AND HAVE DIALED BACK ON THE PATCHY FOG MENTION. MAINTAINED
THE PATCHY FOG CLOSER TO LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE SMALLER. HAVE SCATTERED SHOWERS MENTIONED OVER SOUTHERN PRICE
COUNTY THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHOWERS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER
CENTRAL WI AND MOVE TOWARD PRICE COUNTY. NO OTHER CHANGES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 802 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

REMOVED THE RAIN MENTION FROM ALL BUT SOUTHERN IRON COUNTY AND
PRICE COUNTY THROUGH 02Z. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THESE
AREAS AFTER 02Z. MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER CTRL MANITOBA IS LIFTING ENE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO
THE WRN CWA. GUSTY SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
WHILE THE MAIN LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS HAS BEEN
PULLED INTO THE CTRL/ERN CWA COURTESY OF A LLJ MAXIMUM THIS
MORNING. ALONG THIS LLJ PRESENTLY IS A FINE LINE OF RW FROM NRN
IRON COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO SERN PINE COUNTY. BRIGHT BANDING WITHIN
RADAR ECHOES IS OCCURRING ALONG NRN EDGE OF LINE AS RADAR BEAM
INTERCEPTS NEAR FREEZING ZONE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS
OVER THE CWA WITH 65 AT KBRD AND 30 AT KCKC. CORE OF UPPER LEVEL
JET IS POSITIONED FROM NERN ND INTO NWRN ONTARIO AS 115KT
ISOTACH TRANSLATES ACROSS NWRN CORNER OF CWA. CLEARING HAS PUSHED
INTO WRN THIRD OF CWA AS DEEP LAYER DRYING PUSHES EAST. COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED ALONG WELL ORGANIZED LOW LVL THETAE GRADIENT FROM NEAR
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS TO KS32 TO KBIS. THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30/35KTS PER LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WARM FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES THIS EVENING
WITH AN AREA OF RW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE 85H MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM. WITH UPPER FLOW LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING WE
MAY SEE SLOWING OF THE SFC FEATURES OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NRN MN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS THE TWIN
PORTS BY 12Z. TOUGH CALL ON THE BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AS CONDITIONS
MAY INITIALLY FOG FORMATION BUT MIXING ATTRIBUTED TO APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY LIMIT TEMPORAL NATURE OVER NE MN. HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR FOG MAY BE OVER NWRN WISC WHERE RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OF FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED.

TOMORROW...SFC PRESS PATTERN TOMORROW WILL FEATURE THE PROGRESSION
OF A WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BY AFTN INITIAL
WARM FRONTAL BDRY WILL BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF CWA IN A
STATIONARY MODE. MEANWHILE COLD FRONTAL BDRY WILL RETREAT NORTH OF
THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE SERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA SO LOW POPS ARE MAINTAINED THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE BIG MESSAGE TOMORROW IS MORE WARMTH IN THE WRN
ZONES...AND WARMTH SPREADING EAST OVER REMAINDER OF CWA. NEAR
SHORE LOCATIONS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD AIR
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR NORTH SHORE IN COOK
AND LAKE COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS SYSTEM CONING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND AND MONDAY...A WEATHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE...SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN GRIDS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER AROUND A
SOLUTION.  BY 18Z THU...THE GFS HAS THE LOW CENTER IN SE ND AND THE
ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTER NEAR MPX.  BY 00Z FRI...THE GFS HAS THE
CENTER JUST EAST OF ABR AND THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH OF DLH.  UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE 12Z RUN INDICATES THE
PTYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME GOOD LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE SYSTEM
PULLS OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY O RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS NEARLY CLEAR OF HYR AND SHOULD MOVE OUT
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE MINNESOTA
TERMINALS AND DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER HYR LATE THIS
EVENING. AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH INL DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND HAVE MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  61  37  58 /  10   0  10  20
INL  28  59  39  59 /   0   0  30  20
BRD  34  67  42  61 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  35  65  37  63 /  40  10  10  20
ASX  36  60  34  57 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...HUYCK








000
FXUS63 KDLH 200104
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
804 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 802 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

REMOVED THE RAIN MENTION FROM ALL BUT SOUTHERN IRON COUNTY AND
PRICE COUNTY THROUGH 02Z. THE RAIN SHOULD MOVE AWAY FROM THESE
AREAS AFTER 02Z. MADE OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER CTRL MANITOBA IS LIFTING ENE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO
THE WRN CWA. GUSTY SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
WHILE THE MAIN LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS HAS BEEN
PULLED INTO THE CTRL/ERN CWA COURTESY OF A LLJ MAXIMUM THIS
MORNING. ALONG THIS LLJ PRESENTLY IS A FINE LINE OF RW FROM NRN
IRON COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO SERN PINE COUNTY. BRIGHT BANDING WITHIN
RADAR ECHOES IS OCCURRING ALONG NRN EDGE OF LINE AS RADAR BEAM
INTERCEPTS NEAR FREEZING ZONE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS
OVER THE CWA WITH 65 AT KBRD AND 30 AT KCKC. CORE OF UPPER LEVEL
JET IS POSITIONED FROM NERN ND INTO NWRN ONTARIO AS 115KT
ISOTACH TRANSLATES ACROSS NWRN CORNER OF CWA. CLEARING HAS PUSHED
INTO WRN THIRD OF CWA AS DEEP LAYER DRYING PUSHES EAST. COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED ALONG WELL ORGANIZED LOW LVL THETAE GRADIENT FROM NEAR
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS TO KS32 TO KBIS. THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30/35KTS PER LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WARM FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES THIS EVENING
WITH AN AREA OF RW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE 85H MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM. WITH UPPER FLOW LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING WE
MAY SEE SLOWING OF THE SFC FEATURES OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NRN MN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS THE TWIN
PORTS BY 12Z. TOUGH CALL ON THE BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AS CONDITIONS
MAY INITIALLY FOG FORMATION BUT MIXING ATTRIBUTED TO APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY LIMIT TEMPORAL NATURE OVER NE MN. HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR FOG MAY BE OVER NWRN WISC WHERE RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OF FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED.

TOMORROW...SFC PRESS PATTERN TOMORROW WILL FEATURE THE PROGRESSION
OF A WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BY AFTN INITIAL
WARM FRONTAL BDRY WILL BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF CWA IN A
STATIONARY MODE. MEANWHILE COLD FRONTAL BDRY WILL RETREAT NORTH OF
THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE SERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA SO LOW POPS ARE MAINTAINED THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE BIG MESSAGE TOMORROW IS MORE WARMTH IN THE WRN
ZONES...AND WARMTH SPREADING EAST OVER REMAINDER OF CWA. NEAR
SHORE LOCATIONS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD AIR
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR NORTH SHORE IN COOK
AND LAKE COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS SYSTEM CONING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND AND MONDAY...A WEATHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE...SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN GRIDS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER AROUND A
SOLUTION.  BY 18Z THU...THE GFS HAS THE LOW CENTER IN SE ND AND THE
ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTER NEAR MPX.  BY 00Z FRI...THE GFS HAS THE
CENTER JUST EAST OF ABR AND THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH OF DLH.  UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE 12Z RUN INDICATES THE
PTYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME GOOD LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE SYSTEM
PULLS OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY O RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS NEARLY CLEAR OF HYR AND SHOULD MOVE OUT
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE MINNESOTA
TERMINALS AND DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER HYR LATE THIS
EVENING. AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH INL DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND HAVE MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  61  37  58 /  10   0  10  20
INL  28  59  39  59 /   0   0  30  20
BRD  34  67  42  61 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  35  65  37  63 /  40  10  10  20
ASX  36  60  34  57 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...HUYCK








000
FXUS63 KDLH 200001
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
701 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER CTRL MANITOBA IS LIFTING ENE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO
THE WRN CWA. GUSTY SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
WHILE THE MAIN LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS HAS BEEN
PULLED INTO THE CTRL/ERN CWA COURTESY OF A LLJ MAXIMUM THIS
MORNING. ALONG THIS LLJ PRESENTLY IS A FINE LINE OF RW FROM NRN
IRON COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO SERN PINE COUNTY. BRIGHT BANDING WITHIN
RADAR ECHOES IS OCCURRING ALONG NRN EDGE OF LINE AS RADAR BEAM
INTERCEPTS NEAR FREEZING ZONE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS
OVER THE CWA WITH 65 AT KBRD AND 30 AT KCKC. CORE OF UPPER LEVEL
JET IS POSITIONED FROM NERN NODAK INTO NWRN ONTARIO AS 115KT
ISOTACH TRANSLATES ACROSS NWRN CORNER OF CWA. CLEARING HAS PUSHED
INTO WRN THIRD OF CWA AS DEEP LAYER DRYING PUSHES EAST. COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED ALONG WELL ORGANIZED LOW LVL THETAE GRADIENT FROM NEAR
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS TO KS32 TO KBIS. THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30/35KTS PER LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WARM FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES THIS EVENING
WITH AN AREA OF RW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE 85H MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM. WITH UPPER FLOW LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING WE
MAY SEE SLOWING OF THE SFC FEATURES OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NRN MN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS THE TWIN
PORTS BY 12Z. TOUGH CALL ON THE BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AS CONDITIONS
MAY INITIALLY FOG FORMATION BUT MIXING ATTRIBUTED TO APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY LIMIT TEMPORAL NATURE OVER NE MN. HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR FOG MAY BE OVER NWRN WISC WHERE RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OF FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED.

TOMORROW...SFC PRESS PATTERN TOMORROW WILL FEATURE THE PROGRESSION
OF A WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BY AFTN INITIAL
WARM FRONTAL BDRY WILL BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF CWA IN A
STATIONARY MODE. MEANWHILE COLD FRONTAL BDRY WILL RETREAT NORTH OF
THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE SERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA SO LOW POPS ARE MAINTAINED THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE BIG MESSAGE TOMORROW IS MORE WARMTH IN THE WRN
ZONES...AND WARMTH SPREADING EAST OVER REMAINDER OF CWA. NEAR
SHORE LOCATIONS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD AIR
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR NORTH SHORE IN COOK
AND LAKE COUNTIES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS SYSTEM CONING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND AND MONDAY...A WEATHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE...SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN GRIDS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER AROUND A
SOLUTION.  BY 18Z THU...THE GFS HAS THE LOW CENTER IN SE ND AND THE
ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTER NEAR MPX.  BY 00Z FRI...THE GFS HAS THE
CENTER JUST EAST OF ABR AND THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH OF DLH.  UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE 12Z RUN INDICATES THE
PTYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME GOOD LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE SYSTEM
PULLS OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY O RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 701 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS IS NEARLY CLEAR OF HYR AND SHOULD MOVE OUT
WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR. SKIES HAVE CLEARED OVER THE MINNESOTA
TERMINALS AND DECREASING CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED OVER HYR LATE THIS
EVENING. AN AREA OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL PASS THROUGH INL DURING
THE MID TO LATE EVENING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND HAVE MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT MOST
SITES. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY ALONG WITH CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  61  37  58 /  10   0  10  20
INL  31  59  39  59 /   0   0  30  20
BRD  37  67  42  61 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  39  65  37  63 /  40  10  10  20
ASX  39  60  34  57 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...HUYCK








000
FXUS63 KDLH 192044
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
344 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

VERTICALLY STACKED LOW OVER CTRL MANITOBA IS LIFTING ENE THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT IS MAKING ITS WAY EAST INTO
THE WRN CWA. GUSTY SE WINDS ARE OCCURRING AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT
WHILE THE MAIN LOW/MID LVL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AXIS HAS BEEN
PULLED INTO THE CTRL/ERN CWA COURTESY OF A LLJ MAXIMUM THIS
MORNING. ALONG THIS LLJ PRESENTLY IS A FINE LINE OF RW FROM NRN
IRON COUNTY SOUTHWEST INTO SERN PINE COUNTY. BRIGHT BANDING WITHIN
RADAR ECHOES IS OCCURRING ALONG NRN EDGE OF LINE AS RADAR BEAM
INTERCEPTS NEAR FREEZING ZONE. LARGE TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXISTS
OVER THE CWA WITH 65 AT KBRD AND 30 AT KCKC. CORE OF UPPER LEVEL
JET IS POSITIONED FROM NERN NODAK INTO NWRN ONTARIO AS 115KT
ISOTACH TRANSLATES ACROSS NWRN CORNER OF CWA. CLEARING HAS PUSHED
INTO WRN THIRD OF CWA AS DEEP LAYER DRYING PUSHES EAST. COLD FRONT
IS LOCATED ALONG WELL ORGANIZED LOW LVL THETAE GRADIENT FROM NEAR
THE LAKE OF THE WOODS TO KS32 TO KBIS. THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT CONTAINS A LOW LEVEL JET OF 30/35KTS PER LATEST RAP
ANALYSIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WARM FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS NWRN WISC ZONES THIS EVENING
WITH AN AREA OF RW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEAR THE 85H MSTR
TRANSPORT MAXIMUM. WITH UPPER FLOW LIFTING NORTH AND WEAKENING WE
MAY SEE SLOWING OF THE SFC FEATURES OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NRN MN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOWARDS THE TWIN
PORTS BY 12Z. TOUGH CALL ON THE BR/FG DEVELOPMENT AS CONDITIONS
MAY INITIALLY FOG FORMATION BUT MIXING ATTRIBUTED TO APPROACHING
COLD FRONT MAY LIMIT TEMPORAL NATURE OVER NE MN. HIGHER
PROBABILITY FOR FOG MAY BE OVER NWRN WISC WHERE RELATIVE WARM
SECTOR OF FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BE LOCATED.

TOMORROW...SFC PRESS PATTERN TOMORROW WILL FEATURE THE PROGRESSION
OF A WEAK SFC HIGH OVER THE AREA IN THE MORNING. BY AFTN INITIAL
WARM FRONTAL BDRY WILL BE LURKING NOT TOO FAR SOUTH OF CWA IN A
STATIONARY MODE. MEANWHILE COLD FRONTAL BDRY WILL RETREAT NORTH OF
THE REGION. SOME LIGHT PRECIP MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO THE SERN
FRINGE OF THE CWA SO LOW POPS ARE MAINTAINED THIS PERIOD.
OTHERWISE BIG MESSAGE TOMORROW IS MORE WARMTH IN THE WRN
ZONES...AND WARMTH SPREADING EAST OVER REMAINDER OF CWA. NEAR
SHORE LOCATIONS WILL BE INFLUENCED BY ONSHORE FLOW OF COLD AIR
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FAR NORTH SHORE IN COOK
AND LAKE COUNTIES.




.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR LONG TERM IS SYSTEM CONING IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND AND MONDAY...A WEATHER
SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN CANADA DRAGGING A SURFACE
TROUGH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA.  NOT MUCH MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SHORTWAVE...SO WILL KEEP THE LOW POPS IN GRIDS FOR THAT TIME
PERIOD.  AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S
AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.  MODELS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER AROUND A
SOLUTION.  BY 18Z THU...THE GFS HAS THE LOW CENTER IN SE ND AND THE
ECMWF HAS THE LOW CENTER NEAR MPX.  BY 00Z FRI...THE GFS HAS THE
CENTER JUST EAST OF ABR AND THE ECMWF HAS THE CENTER ABOUT 30 MILES
SOUTH OF DLH.  UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS...THE 12Z RUN INDICATES THE
PTYPE WILL BE ALL RAIN.  HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME GOOD LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...SO THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.  THE SYSTEM
PULLS OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AND COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION.
THERE WILL BE A POSSIBILITY O RAIN OR SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT AND THE
CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW FOR FRIDAY.


.AVIATION...18Z TAF ISSUANCE...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD.
THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO EARLY MORNING FOG DUE TO
TODAYS RAIN/SNOW.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME MIXED IN SNOW AND EVEN FREEZING
RAIN IS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THE BAND HAS BROUGHT
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR CIGS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION AS THE RAIN BAND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN BAND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  61  37  58 /  10   0  10  20
INL  31  59  39  59 /   0   0  30  20
BRD  37  67  42  61 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  39  65  37  63 /  40  10  10  20
ASX  39  60  34  57 /  40  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 191623 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1123 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1119 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

CLOUD DECK THINNING MORE THAN EXPECTED ALLOWING PARTIALLY FILTERED
SUNSHINE TO SPREAD FARTHER EAST INTO MN ZONES.PRECIP MOVING
QUICKLY ACROSS COOK/LAKE COUNTIES. HAVE DROPPED WSY FROM SRN LAKE
AND NRN/CTRL ST LOUIS COUNTIES.





UPDATE ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS IS SHIFTING EAST THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST
IS OCCURRING OVER ARROWHEAD IN AREA OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
INDICATED BY SPEC MESOANALYSIS. BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW AT LUTSEN
WITHIN PAST HR AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY ENE AS PER LATEST
88D TRENDS. WILL DROP WSY OVER TWIN PORTS AS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL
BE LIGHT AND MAIN RESULT SO FAR HAS BEEN ON DECKS...TREE LIMBS...AND
OTHER ELEVATED OBJECTS. ANY ADDITIONAL ICING WOULD BE MINIMAL.
ENDING PRECIP EARLIER OVER WRN CWA BASED ON LATEST ANIMATION OF
SAT IMAGERY AND OUTPUT FROM HI-RES NWP. WILL LET NRN ST LOUIS WSY
GO A LITTLE LONGER HOWEVER MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THAT EARLIER THAN
ISSUED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...AND A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...INCLUDING CARLTON...SAINT LOUIS...LAKE AND
COOK COUNTIES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW AND
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR
KOOCHICHING AND ITASCA COUNTIES DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL WARMING THAT
HAS OCCURRED OVER THIS AREA...AND THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIP
BEING REDUCED.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND PRODUCE MODEST AMTS OF PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO ADVECT IN OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH QUITE
A BIT OF MIXING AS WELL. SFC TEMPS AROUND BRAINERD ARE ALREADY
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS WARM AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NWD TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS
RAIN. THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE COLDER SFC AND BL TEMPS
WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THE PRESENCE
OF THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MIXED PRECIP AND
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET/FZRA. THE PERIOD FOR
WINTRY MIX THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED...HOWEVER WITH A ROBUST AMT OF LIQUID AVAILABLE...THE THREAT
FOR ICY ROADS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS REMAINS A CONCERN. COULD
POSSIBLY SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES...WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER ST. LOUIS AND
CARLTON COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE ICE ACCUM POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DULUTH...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR MASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR COULD MAKE A STRONG PUSH INLAND TO THE W/SW...ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND ADJUST THE THERMAL PROFILES ENOUGH TO CHANGE
THE PRECIP FROM RAIN TO FZRA OR SLEET. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
WINDS/TEMPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE CLOSELY THIS MORNING
FOR ANY RAPID CHANGES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING OVER NW WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. THE GUSTY SE
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME CALM UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCH FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUNDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING THE AREA WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY. LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5
ABOVE C...HI TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S NEARLY
EVERYWHERE...WITH 50S ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.  THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO FAIRLY DEEP MIXING BRINGING DOWN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH OUR DARK TREES TO HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE A LITTLE.  THIS IS ALSO AHEAD OF A FRESH
CLIPPER STYLE SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR
MOISTURE... AND AM ONLY CARRYING SOME SLIGHT AND LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS THIS CLIPPER BRINGS IN SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.  FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS POPS ALONE...AND HAVE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS DUE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH
BRINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE AREA....BUT FOR NOW IT IS TOO SOON TO
PUT MUCH DETAIL INTO THE LOCATION OF THIS AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...WITH A
MAINLY RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.  IT IS TOO SOON TO GET
INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FOR THIS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT
CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT COULD BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME MIXED IN SNOW AND EVEN FREEZING
RAIN IS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THE BAND HAS BROUGHT
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR CIGS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION AS THE RAIN BAND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN BAND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  36  60  37 /  80  10   0  10
INL  53  31  58  39 /  80   0   0  30
BRD  61  37  67  42 /  60   0   0  10
HYR  50  39  64  37 /  60  40  10  10
ASX  49  38  59  34 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-
     021.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 191454 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
954 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

85H MSTR TRANSPORT AXIS IS SHIFTING EAST THIS MORNING. THE STRONGEST
IS OCCURRING OVER ARROWHEAD IN AREA OF STRONG FRONTOGENESIS
INDICATED BY SPEC MESOANALYSIS. BURST OF HEAVIER SNOW AT LUTSEN
WITHIN PAST HR AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY ENE AS PER LATEST
88D TRENDS. WILL DROP WSY OVER TWIN PORTS AS PRECIP INTENSITY WILL
BE LIGHT AND MAIN RESULT SO FAR HAS BEEN ON DECKS...TREE LIMBS...AND
OTHER ELEVATED OBJECTS. ANY ADDITIONAL ICING WOULD BE MINIMAL.
ENDING PRECIP EARLIER OVER WRN CWA BASED ON LATEST ANIMATION OF
SAT IMAGERY AND OUTPUT FROM HI-RES NWP. WILL LET NRN ST LOUIS WSY
GO A LITTLE LONGER HOWEVER MAY BE ABLE TO CANCEL THAT EARLIER THAN
ISSUED.





UPDATE ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...AND A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...INCLUDING CARLTON...SAINT LOUIS...LAKE AND
COOK COUNTIES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW AND
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR
KOOCHICHING AND ITASCA COUNTIES DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL WARMING THAT
HAS OCCURRED OVER THIS AREA...AND THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIP
BEING REDUCED.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND PRODUCE MODEST AMTS OF PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO ADVECT IN OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH QUITE
A BIT OF MIXING AS WELL. SFC TEMPS AROUND BRAINERD ARE ALREADY
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS WARM AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NWD TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS
RAIN. THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE COLDER SFC AND BL TEMPS
WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THE PRESENCE
OF THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MIXED PRECIP AND
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET/FZRA. THE PERIOD FOR
WINTRY MIX THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED...HOWEVER WITH A ROBUST AMT OF LIQUID AVAILABLE...THE THREAT
FOR ICY ROADS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS REMAINS A CONCERN. COULD
POSSIBLY SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES...WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER ST. LOUIS AND
CARLTON COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE ICE ACCUM POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DULUTH...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR MASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR COULD MAKE A STRONG PUSH INLAND TO THE W/SW...ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND ADJUST THE THERMAL PROFILES ENOUGH TO CHANGE
THE PRECIP FROM RAIN TO FZRA OR SLEET. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
WINDS/TEMPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE CLOSELY THIS MORNING
FOR ANY RAPID CHANGES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING OVER NW WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. THE GUSTY SE
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME CALM UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCH FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUNDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING THE AREA WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY. LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5
ABOVE C...HI TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S NEARLY
EVERYWHERE...WITH 50S ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.  THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO FAIRLY DEEP MIXING BRINGING DOWN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH OUR DARK TREES TO HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE A LITTLE.  THIS IS ALSO AHEAD OF A FRESH
CLIPPER STYLE SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR
MOISTURE... AND AM ONLY CARRYING SOME SLIGHT AND LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS THIS CLIPPER BRINGS IN SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.  FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS POPS ALONE...AND HAVE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS DUE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH
BRINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE AREA....BUT FOR NOW IT IS TOO SOON TO
PUT MUCH DETAIL INTO THE LOCATION OF THIS AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...WITH A
MAINLY RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.  IT IS TOO SOON TO GET
INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FOR THIS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT
CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT COULD BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME MIXED IN SNOW AND EVEN FREEZING
RAIN IS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THE BAND HAS BROUGHT
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR CIGS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION AS THE RAIN BAND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN BAND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  36  60  37 /  80  10   0  10
INL  53  31  58  39 /  80   0   0  30
BRD  61  37  67  42 /  60   0   0  10
HYR  50  39  64  37 /  70  40  10  10
ASX  49  38  59  34 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MNZ011-019.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-
     020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 191154
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
654 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...AND A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...INCLUDING CARLTON...SAINT LOUIS...LAKE AND
COOK COUNTIES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW AND
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR
KOOCHICHING AND ITASCA COUNTIES DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL WARMING THAT
HAS OCCURRED OVER THIS AREA...AND THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIP
BEING REDUCED.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND PRODUCE MODEST AMTS OF PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO ADVECT IN OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH QUITE
A BIT OF MIXING AS WELL. SFC TEMPS AROUND BRAINERD ARE ALREADY
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS WARM AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NWD TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS
RAIN. THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE COLDER SFC AND BL TEMPS
WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THE PRESENCE
OF THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MIXED PRECIP AND
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET/FZRA. THE PERIOD FOR
WINTRY MIX THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED...HOWEVER WITH A ROBUST AMT OF LIQUID AVAILABLE...THE THREAT
FOR ICY ROADS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS REMAINS A CONCERN. COULD
POSSIBLY SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES...WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER ST. LOUIS AND
CARLTON COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE ICE ACCUM POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DULUTH...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR MASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR COULD MAKE A STRONG PUSH INLAND TO THE W/SW...ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND ADJUST THE THERMAL PROFILES ENOUGH TO CHANGE
THE PRECIP FROM RAIN TO FZRA OR SLEET. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
WINDS/TEMPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE CLOSELY THIS MORNING
FOR ANY RAPID CHANGES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING OVER NW WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. THE GUSTY SE
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME CALM UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCH FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUNDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING THE AREA WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY. LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5
ABOVE C...HI TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S NEARLY
EVERYWHERE...WITH 50S ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.  THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO FAIRLY DEEP MIXING BRINGING DOWN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH OUR DARK TREES TO HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE A LITTLE.  THIS IS ALSO AHEAD OF A FRESH
CLIPPER STYLE SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR
MOISTURE... AND AM ONLY CARRYING SOME SLIGHT AND LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS THIS CLIPPER BRINGS IN SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.  FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS POPS ALONE...AND HAVE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS DUE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH
BRINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE AREA....BUT FOR NOW IT IS TOO SOON TO
PUT MUCH DETAIL INTO THE LOCATION OF THIS AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...WITH A
MAINLY RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.  IT IS TOO SOON TO GET
INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FOR THIS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT
CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT COULD BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS WITH SOME MIXED IN SNOW AND EVEN FREEZING
RAIN IS AFFECTING THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THE BAND HAS BROUGHT
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND IFR CIGS. THESE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST INTO THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DEPENDING ON THE
LOCATION AS THE RAIN BAND SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE TERMINALS. A
RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AS THE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RAIN BAND MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  36  60  37 /  80  10   0  10
INL  53  31  58  39 /  80   0   0  30
BRD  61  37  67  42 /  60   0   0  10
HYR  50  39  64  37 /  70  40  10  10
ASX  46  38  59  34 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MNZ011-019-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-
     020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 190912
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
412 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW/SLEET/FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...AND A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO ALL RAIN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST.

A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...INCLUDING CARLTON...SAINT LOUIS...LAKE AND
COOK COUNTIES...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR 1-4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW AND
LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS. HAVE CANCELLED THE ADVISORY FOR
KOOCHICHING AND ITASCA COUNTIES DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL WARMING THAT
HAS OCCURRED OVER THIS AREA...AND THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIP
BEING REDUCED.

A FAST MOVING UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SFC TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND PRODUCE MODEST AMTS OF PRECIP MAINLY OVER THE
NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT HAS
ALREADY BEGUN TO ADVECT IN OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH QUITE
A BIT OF MIXING AS WELL. SFC TEMPS AROUND BRAINERD ARE ALREADY
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S. THIS WARM AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH NWD TODAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS
RAIN. THE AREA THAT WILL LIKELY KEEP THE COLDER SFC AND BL TEMPS
WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND ALONG THE NORTH SHORE. THE PRESENCE
OF THIS COLDER AIR MASS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MIXED PRECIP AND
POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT ACCUMULATING SNOW/SLEET/FZRA. THE PERIOD FOR
WINTRY MIX THIS MORNING WILL LIKELY BE FAIRLY SHORT-
LIVED...HOWEVER WITH A ROBUST AMT OF LIQUID AVAILABLE...THE THREAT
FOR ICY ROADS AND HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS REMAINS A CONCERN. COULD
POSSIBLY SEE 2-4 INCHES OF SLEET/SNOW OVER LAKE AND COOK
COUNTIES...WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER ST. LOUIS AND
CARLTON COUNTIES. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE ICE ACCUM POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF DULUTH...HOWEVER THE COLD AIR MASS OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR COULD MAKE A STRONG PUSH INLAND TO THE W/SW...ALONG THE
I-35 CORRIDOR AND ADJUST THE THERMAL PROFILES ENOUGH TO CHANGE
THE PRECIP FROM RAIN TO FZRA OR SLEET. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE
WINDS/TEMPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE CLOSELY THIS MORNING
FOR ANY RAPID CHANGES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 40S AND 50S OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION...WITH A FEW UPPER 30S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD
BY THE AFTERNOON. RAIN SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING OVER NW WI. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST AND ALLOW SKIES TO CLEAR OUT. THE GUSTY SE
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME CALM UNDER THE RIDGE AXIS TONIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES AND RECENT RAINFALL WILL
PRODUCE THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCH FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUN
MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 409 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

SUNDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION MOVES QUICKLY OFF TO THE
SOUTHEAST...LEAVING THE AREA WITH A MAINLY DRY DAY. LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 5
ABOVE C...HI TEMPERATURES SHOULD GET INTO THE 60S NEARLY
EVERYWHERE...WITH 50S ALONG THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD.  THIS IS
MAINLY DUE TO FAIRLY DEEP MIXING BRINGING DOWN THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH OUR DARK TREES TO HELP BOOST
TEMPERATURES ABOVE GUIDANCE A LITTLE.  THIS IS ALSO AHEAD OF A FRESH
CLIPPER STYLE SHORTWAVE...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO SHOOT THROUGH THE
REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.  THIS SYSTEM IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED FOR
MOISTURE... AND AM ONLY CARRYING SOME SLIGHT AND LOW END CHANCE POPS
FOR THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.  TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER AS THIS CLIPPER BRINGS IN SOME COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALOFT...ALONG WITH THE NORTHWEST SURFACE FLOW.  FOR NOW
WILL LEAVE THE CONSENSUS POPS ALONE...AND HAVE TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
COOLER THAN SUNDAY.

ANOTHER CLIPPER IS DUE THROUGH ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...WHICH
BRINGS A RAIN/SNOW MIX TO THE AREA....BUT FOR NOW IT IS TOO SOON TO
PUT MUCH DETAIL INTO THE LOCATION OF THIS AREA.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY IS OUR NEXT MAJOR WEATHER MAKER...WITH A
MAINLY RAIN OR RAIN SNOW MIX IN THE FORECAST.  IT IS TOO SOON TO GET
INTO TOO MANY DETAILS FOR THIS...BUT WE WILL HAVE TO WATCH IT
CAREFULLY OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT COULD BE FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST EXCEPT AT INL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 12Z TO 18Z WHEN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN MOVES NEARBY.
SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE UNTIL 08Z WHEN GUSTY SFC WINDS SHOULD SPREAD
OVER THE TERMINALS FROM W TO E. HAVE A BRIEF 2 TO 3 HOUR MENTION
OF -FZRA AT DLH/HIB/INL FROM 10Z TO 13Z. PCPN WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
AFTER 13Z. GUSTY SFC WIND WILL SUBSIDE NEAR 00Z/20. PATCHY BR IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER SUNDOWN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  36  60  37 /  80  10   0  10
INL  51  31  58  39 /  80   0   0  30
BRD  58  37  67  42 /  60   0   0  10
HYR  51  39  64  37 /  70  40  10  10
ASX  46  38  59  34 /  70  40  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR MNZ011-019-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR MNZ012-
     020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>143.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 190452
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1152 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN JUST A BIT. USED THE LATEST CONSENSUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS TO TRIM BACK THE ICE ACCUMULATION. MADE SOME OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE UPCOMING MIXED PRECIPITATION
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE NORTHLAND WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE
EAST...AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB INCREASING TO 50-60KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DRAW WARM AIR AND INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING...IMPACTING NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST...THEN SPREADING EAST AND
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE...WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF AGREE ON A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AND SNOWFALL FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES UP THERE
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARD KBRD SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN TONIGHT. A ZONE OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE ARROWHEAD AND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. WE
HAVE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM MIXED PRECIPITATION TO RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BUT A MIX WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE ARROWHEAD. WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT
ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND RAPIDS TO DULUTH...AND THAT STILL
LOOKS GOOD. THE NAM/GEM HAVE QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS/ECMWF LOWER. WE WENT WITH A BLEND...AS WE DO
THINK THE NAM/GEM ARE TOO HIGH. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE
MORE FREEZING RAIN DUE TO INCREASING WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM DULUTH NORTH LONG THE NORTH SHORE
WHERE THE ADDED LIFT UP THE STEEP TERRAIN WILL COOL THE AIR FURTHER.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM THE DULUTH AREA
NORTH INTO THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON RADAR/SURFACE TEMP TRENDS AS WE PROGRESS INTO
TONIGHT.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FOR MOST
AREAS...LESSENING THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION BY MID-LATE
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH SHOULD SEE A
SLOWER TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN. AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
SK TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE EAST SATURDAY HELPING DRIVE A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
S/WVS EVERY FEW DAYS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. THEN ANTIHERO WAVES MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS BUT DIFFER A BIT ON
PLACEMENT OF SUBSEQUENT SFC LOWS AND PRECIP. IN THIS CASE USED A
COMBO OF NAM/GFS...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.  NEXT POTENT SYSTEM
COMES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH STRONG CLOSED/STACKED LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. FIRST SURGE OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC LOW
WILL BE WED NIGHT AND CHANCES OF PRECIP CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH 8H
TEMPS PROCEED AT 2 TO 6...BUT MUCH COLDER SATURATED AIR ALOFT COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH ICE TO PRODUCE SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP ALL LIQUID PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1152 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST EXCEPT AT INL WHERE MVFR CIGS ARE
POSSIBLE FROM 12Z TO 18Z WHEN AREA OF MODERATE RAIN MOVES NEARBY.
SOME LLWS IS POSSIBLE UNTIL 08Z WHEN GUSTY SFC WINDS SHOULD SPREAD
OVER THE TERMINALS FROM W TO E. HAVE A BRIEF 2 TO 3 HOUR MENTION
OF -FZRA AT DLH/HIB/INL FROM 10Z TO 13Z. PCPN WILL CHANGE TO RAIN
AFTER 13Z. GUSTY SFC WIND WILL SUBSIDE NEAR 00Z/20. PATCHY BR IS
ALSO POSSIBLE AFTER SUNDOWN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  46  35  61 /  70  80  10   0
INL  31  49  31  57 /  90  80   0   0
BRD  37  60  36  67 /  60  60   0   0
HYR  32  52  39  64 /  20  70  50   0
ASX  28  49  38  59 /  50  80  50   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ011-019-
     037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     MNZ012-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-018-
     026.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 190106
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
806 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SLOWED THE ONSET OF THE PCPN JUST A BIT. USED THE LATEST CONSENSUS
MODEL SOLUTIONS TO TRIM BACK THE ICE ACCUMULATION. MADE SOME OTHER
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE UPCOMING MIXED PRECIPITATION
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE NORTHLAND WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE
EAST...AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB INCREASING TO 50-60KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DRAW WARM AIR AND INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING...IMPACTING NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST...THEN SPREADING EAST AND
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE...WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF AGREE ON A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AND SNOWFALL FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES UP THERE
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARD KBRD SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN TONIGHT. A ZONE OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE ARROWHEAD AND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. WE
HAVE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM MIXED PRECIPITATION TO RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BUT A MIX WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE ARROWHEAD. WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT
ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND RAPIDS TO DULUTH...AND THAT STILL
LOOKS GOOD. THE NAM/GEM HAVE QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS/ECMWF LOWER. WE WENT WITH A BLEND...AS WE DO
THINK THE NAM/GEM ARE TOO HIGH. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE
MORE FREEZING RAIN DUE TO INCREASING WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM DULUTH NORTH LONG THE NORTH SHORE
WHERE THE ADDED LIFT UP THE STEEP TERRAIN WILL COOL THE AIR FURTHER.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM THE DULUTH AREA
NORTH INTO THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON RADAR/SURFACE TEMP TRENDS AS WE PROGRESS INTO
TONIGHT.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FOR MOST
AREAS...LESSENING THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION BY MID-LATE
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH SHOULD SEE A
SLOWER TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN. AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
SK TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE EAST SATURDAY HELPING DRIVE A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
S/WVS EVERY FEW DAYS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. THEN ANTIHERO WAVES MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS BUT DIFFER A BIT ON
PLACEMENT OF SUBSEQUENT SFC LOWS AND PRECIP. IN THIS CASE USED A
COMBO OF NAM/GFS...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.  NEXT POTENT SYSTEM
COMES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH STRONG CLOSED/STACKED LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. FIRST SURGE OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC LOW
WILL BE WED NIGHT AND CHANCES OF PRECIP CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH 8H
TEMPS PROCEED AT 2 TO 6...BUT MUCH COLDER SATURATED AIR ALOFT COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH ICE TO PRODUCE SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP ALL LIQUID PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE TERMINALS.
HYR WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE THE GUSTY WIND. PCPN SHOULD BEGIN
AFTER 06Z AT INL/BRD AND SPREAD E OVERNIGHT REACHING HYR BY 13Z.
-FZRASN AT INL BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY 12Z. -FZRA AT
HIB/DLH CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AT HIB BY 12Z AND DLH BY 15Z. BRD/HYR
WILL SEE ALL RAIN. MVFR IS EXPECTED IN THE MODERATE BANDS OF PCPN
AT HIB AND INL. THE GUSTY SFC WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 21Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  46  35  61 /  70  80  10   0
INL  31  49  31  57 /  90  80   0   0
BRD  37  60  36  67 /  60  60   0   0
HYR  32  52  39  64 /  20  70  50   0
ASX  27  49  38  59 /  50  80  50   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ011-019-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     MNZ012-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-018-026.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 182343
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE UPCOMING MIXED PRECIPITATION
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE NORTHLAND WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE
EAST...AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB INCREASING TO 50-60KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DRAW WARM AIR AND INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING...IMPACTING NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST...THEN SPREADING EAST AND
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE...WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF AGREE ON A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AND SNOWFALL FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES UP THERE
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARD KBRD SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN TONIGHT. A ZONE OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE ARROWHEAD AND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. WE
HAVE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM MIXED PRECIPITATION TO RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BUT A MIX WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE ARROWHEAD. WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT
ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND RAPIDS TO DULUTH...AND THAT STILL
LOOKS GOOD. THE NAM/GEM HAVE QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS/ECMWF LOWER. WE WENT WITH A BLEND...AS WE DO
THINK THE NAM/GEM ARE TOO HIGH. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE
MORE FREEZING RAIN DUE TO INCREASING WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM DULUTH NORTH LONG THE NORTH SHORE
WHERE THE ADDED LIFT UP THE STEEP TERRAIN WILL COOL THE AIR FURTHER.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM THE DULUTH AREA
NORTH INTO THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON RADAR/SURFACE TEMP TRENDS AS WE PROGRESS INTO
TONIGHT.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FOR MOST
AREAS...LESSENING THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION BY MID-LATE
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH SHOULD SEE A
SLOWER TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN. AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
SK TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE EAST SATURDAY HELPING DRIVE A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
S/WVS EVERY FEW DAYS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. THEN ANTIHERO WAVES MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS BUT DIFFER A BIT ON
PLACEMENT OF SUBSEQUENT SFC LOWS AND PRECIP. IN THIS CASE USED A
COMBO OF NAM/GFS...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.  NEXT POTENT SYSTEM
COMES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH STRONG CLOSED/STACKED LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. FIRST SURGE OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC LOW
WILL BE WED NIGHT AND CHANCES OF PRECIP CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH 8H
TEMPS PROCEED AT 2 TO 6...BUT MUCH COLDER SATURATED AIR ALOFT COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH ICE TO PRODUCE SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP ALL LIQUID PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR WITH GUSTY SFC WINDS BEGINNING TO SPREAD OVER THE TERMINALS.
HYR WILL BE THE LAST TO SEE THE GUSTY WIND. PCPN SHOULD BEGIN
AFTER 06Z AT INL/BRD AND SPREAD E OVERNIGHT REACHING HYR BY 13Z.
-FZRASN AT INL BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL RAIN BY 12Z. -FZRA AT
HIB/DLH CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AT HIB BY 12Z AND DLH BY 15Z. BRD/HYR
WILL SEE ALL RAIN. MVFR IS EXPECTED IN THE MODERATE BANDS OF PCPN
AT HIB AND INL. THE GUSTY SFC WIND WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON
WITH AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR BY 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  46  35  61 /  70  80  10   0
INL  31  49  31  57 /  80  80   0   0
BRD  37  60  36  67 /  60  60   0   0
HYR  32  52  39  64 /  30  70  50   0
ASX  27  49  38  59 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ011-019-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     MNZ012-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-018-026.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 182016
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
316 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON THE UPCOMING MIXED PRECIPITATION
EVENT OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

THE NORTHLAND WAS SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE JUST OFF TO THE
EAST...AND AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS AT 850MB INCREASING TO 50-60KT LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL DRAW WARM AIR AND INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION. PRECIPITATION SHOULD DEVELOP THROUGH THE
EVENING...IMPACTING NORTHWEST ZONES FIRST...THEN SPREADING EAST AND
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE...WITH THE
WARM AIR ALOFT MOVING IN. THE LATEST NAM/ECMWF AGREE ON A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHERN/NORTHEAST ZONES TONIGHT INTO
AT LEAST SATURDAY MORNING AND SNOWFALL FROM 3 TO 6 INCHES UP THERE
STILL LOOKS ON TRACK. FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES TOWARD KBRD SHOULD BE
MAINLY RAIN TONIGHT. A ZONE OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN/SNOW/SLEET WILL BE
POSSIBLE BETWEEN THE ARROWHEAD AND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. WE
HAVE A GRADUAL TRANSITION FROM MIXED PRECIPITATION TO RAIN FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...BUT A MIX WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE ARROWHEAD. WE HAVE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY OUT
ROUGHLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM GRAND RAPIDS TO DULUTH...AND THAT STILL
LOOKS GOOD. THE NAM/GEM HAVE QUITE A BIT MORE PRECIP WITH THIS
SYSTEM WITH THE GFS/ECMWF LOWER. WE WENT WITH A BLEND...AS WE DO
THINK THE NAM/GEM ARE TOO HIGH. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR COULD SEE
MORE FREEZING RAIN DUE TO INCREASING WINDS OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
THIS WILL BE MOST LIKELY FROM DULUTH NORTH LONG THE NORTH SHORE
WHERE THE ADDED LIFT UP THE STEEP TERRAIN WILL COOL THE AIR FURTHER.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SIGNIFICANT ICING FROM THE DULUTH AREA
NORTH INTO THE IRON RANGE AND ARROWHEAD. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO
KEEP A CLOSE WATCH ON RADAR/SURFACE TEMP TRENDS AS WE PROGRESS INTO
TONIGHT.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL RISE THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY FOR MOST
AREAS...LESSENING THE THREAT FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION BY MID-LATE
MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH SHOULD SEE A
SLOWER TRANSITION TO MAINLY RAIN. AN UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST
SK TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE EAST SATURDAY HELPING DRIVE A LOW LEVEL
TROUGH INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO GET A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES IN THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THIS PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY STRONG PACIFIC FLOW WITH EMBEDDED
S/WVS EVERY FEW DAYS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT THE SFC SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST WITH
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS. THEN ANTIHERO WAVES MOVES IN SUNDAY NIGHT
AND SPREADS MORE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY THE MODELS
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE UPPER LEVELS BUT DIFFER A BIT ON
PLACEMENT OF SUBSEQUENT SFC LOWS AND PRECIP. IN THIS CASE USED A
COMBO OF NAM/GFS...BUT AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.  NEXT POTENT SYSTEM
COMES LATER IN THE WEEK WITH STRONG CLOSED/STACKED LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE AREA. FIRST SURGE OF STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF SFC LOW
WILL BE WED NIGHT AND CHANCES OF PRECIP CONTINUING INTO THE WEEKEND.
INITIAL THOUGHTS ARE THOUGH IT MAY BE TOO WARM FOR SNOW WITH 8H
TEMPS PROCEED AT 2 TO 6...BUT MUCH COLDER SATURATED AIR ALOFT COULD
PROVIDE ENOUGH ICE TO PRODUCE SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND AS
THE SYSTEM MOVES OUT. AT THIS TIME WILL KEEP ALL LIQUID PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEING IN THE WEST NEAR 06S THEN SPREAD
EAST. CIGS WILL FALL TO AOB OVC010 WITH VSBYS BLO 3SM FROM KDLH AND
NORTH. KBRD AND KHYR ARE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT CIGS
THERE WILL BE MVFR. ONCE WARMER AIR ARRIVES AFT 12Z SOME OF THE
AREAS WILL SEE THE FZRA AND SNOW TURN TO RAIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  28  46  35  61 /  70  80  10   0
INL  31  49  31  57 /  80  80   0   0
BRD  37  60  36  67 /  60  60   0   0
HYR  32  52  39  64 /  30  70  50   0
ASX  27  49  38  59 /  60  80  50   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ011-019-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR
     MNZ012-020-021.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-018-026.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 AM TO 1 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 181738 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1238 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPS. ALSO OF
CONCERN IS A SMALL AREA OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS WC
MN. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IS THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

AT 4 AM...THERE WAS A VARIETY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO LINGER ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY SNOW TO THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF
MID CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...WITH
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH. THERE WERE SOME
RETURNS ON AREA RADARS ACROSS SE NORTH DAKOTA AND WC MN. HAVE
ADDED A SMALL POP ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA IN CASE IT GROWS A BIT MORE
THAN EXPECTED. NAM MAINTAINS NO QPF AND 4KM NMM WRF SHOWS LOW
REFLECTIVITY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

DESPITE HAVING A MAJOR SNOW STORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...TEMPS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY RAPID MELTING OF THE NEW SNOW.

A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. INTENSE WAA DUE TO A 60 KNOT LLJ...ALONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE FGEN SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE 4 KM NMM WRF IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE
WITH ITS FORECAST REFLECTIVITY OVERNIGHT...AND QPF IS QUITE HIGH.
PTYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF ICY
PRECIPITATION. A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER COULD RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN SOME SLEET FOR A TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
COMPLEX SCENARIO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. OUR CONCERN IS
GROWING THAT SOME SIGNIFICANT ICING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. ALSO THINK THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THINK
SNOWFALL ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD...WITH AN INCH OR TWO FURTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR EITHER
THE ICE OR THE SNOW. ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE SLICK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ENE THROUGH
FAR NW ONTARIO. ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME
RAIN NEAR THE FRONT IN NW WISCONSIN SATURDAY EVENING...AS WELL AS
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDER. PARTS OF THE ARROWHEAD AND COULD ALSO SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS WILL BE A PERIOD WITH MUCH WARMER
WEATHER THAN OUR RECENT COLD STREAK...AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...AND TUESDAY CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S SHOULD MELT MUCH OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE...AND AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW...WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NW ONTARIO LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY...WHICH IS WHY TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND SUNNY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE IN THE HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY. INCREASE SOUTH TO SSE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THE
NORTHLAND COULD SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD...PERHAPS WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...PARTLY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING MUCH HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR THEN IFR AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA ADVANCES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF
SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BEING IN THE WEST NEAR 06S THEN SPREAD
EAST. CIGS WILL FALL TO AOB OV010 WITH VSBYS BLO 3SM FROM KDLH AND
NORTH. KBRD AND KHYR ARE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM THAT CIGS
THERE WILL BE MVFR. ONCE WARMER AIR ARRIVES AFT 12Z SOME OF THE
AREAS WILL SEE THE FZRA AND SNOW TURN TO RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  28  47  35 /  10  60  80  10
INL  46  31  51  35 /  10  70  80   0
BRD  49  36  61  37 /  10  60  70   0
HYR  46  30  56  39 /  10  20  70  50
ASX  42  27  51  37 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-011-018-019-026-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ012-020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 181145 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
645 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPS. ALSO OF
CONCERN IS A SMALL AREA OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS WC
MN. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IS THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

AT 4 AM...THERE WAS A VARIETY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO LINGER ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY SNOW TO THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF
MID CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...WITH
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH. THERE WERE SOME
RETURNS ON AREA RADARS ACROSS SE NORTH DAKOTA AND WC MN. HAVE
ADDED A SMALL POP ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA IN CASE IT GROWS A BIT MORE
THAN EXPECTED. NAM MAINTAINS NO QPF AND 4KM NMM WRF SHOWS LOW
REFLECTIVITY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

DESPITE HAVING A MAJOR SNOW STORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...TEMPS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY RAPID MELTING OF THE NEW SNOW.

A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. INTENSE WAA DUE TO A 60 KNOT LLJ...ALONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE FGEN SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE 4 KM NMM WRF IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE
WITH ITS FORECAST REFLECTIVITY OVERNIGHT...AND QPF IS QUITE HIGH.
PTYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF ICY
PRECIPITATION. A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER COULD RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN SOME SLEET FOR A TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
COMPLEX SCENARIO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. OUR CONCERN IS
GROWING THAT SOME SIGNIFICANT ICING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. ALSO THINK THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THINK
SNOWFALL ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD...WITH AN INCH OR TWO FURTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR EITHER
THE ICE OR THE SNOW. ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE SLICK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ENE THROUGH
FAR NW ONTARIO. ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME
RAIN NEAR THE FRONT IN NW WISCONSIN SATURDAY EVENING...AS WELL AS
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDER. PARTS OF THE ARROWHEAD AND COULD ALSO SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS WILL BE A PERIOD WITH MUCH WARMER
WEATHER THAN OUR RECENT COLD STREAK...AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...AND TUESDAY CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S SHOULD MELT MUCH OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE...AND AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW...WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NW ONTARIO LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY...WHICH IS WHY TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND SUNNY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE IN THE HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY. INCREASE SOUTH TO SSE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THE
NORTHLAND COULD SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD...PERHAPS WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...PARTLY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING MUCH HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 0645 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND
NW WISCONSIN TODAY. THERE IS SOME LIFR CONDITIONS AT KHYR EARLY
THIS MORNING DUE TO FG...BUT THIS FG SHOULD DISSIPATE WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS. EAST TO SE WINDS OF ABOUT 5 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO
ORGANIZING LOW PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS.

THE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THERE WILL BE
LOWERING CIGS AND INCREASING WINDS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT.
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA
AROUND OR AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE KINL/KHIB/KDLH AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE
SNOW TRANSITION TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN. THE KHIB IS THE MOST
LIKELY AREA TO SEE FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATION...WHICH
COULD APPROACH A TENTH OF AN INCH. THE KINL/KHIB/KDLH/KBRD AREAS
SHOULD EXPECT MVFR...AND MAYBE IFR...CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT AS THE CIGS LOWER AND VSBYS LOWER DUE TO THE
PRECIPITATION.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING SSE TO SOUTH WINDS ALOFT TONIGHT...WHICH
WILL INCREASE TO 40 TO 50 KNOTS BELOW 2 KFT TONIGHT. WIND SHEAR
HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECASTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  28  47  35 /  10  60  80  10
INL  46  31  51  35 /  10  70  80   0
BRD  48  36  61  37 /  10  60  70   0
HYR  46  30  56  39 /  10  20  70  50
ASX  42  27  51  37 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-011-018-019-026-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ012-020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 180909
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
409 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS CLOUD COVER AND HIGH TEMPS. ALSO OF
CONCERN IS A SMALL AREA OF POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS WC
MN. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY IS THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.

AT 4 AM...THERE WAS A VARIETY OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE CWA. LOW CLOUDS
CONTINUED TO LINGER ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD FROM THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE HEAVY SNOW TO THE REGION. ANOTHER AREA OF
MID CLOUDS WAS ADVANCING ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA...WITH
HIGH CLOUDS SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH. THERE WERE SOME
RETURNS ON AREA RADARS ACROSS SE NORTH DAKOTA AND WC MN. HAVE
ADDED A SMALL POP ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS AREA IN CASE IT GROWS A BIT MORE
THAN EXPECTED. NAM MAINTAINS NO QPF AND 4KM NMM WRF SHOWS LOW
REFLECTIVITY BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON IT.

DESPITE HAVING A MAJOR SNOW STORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...TEMPS
SHOULD REACH INTO THE 40S ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN FAIRLY RAPID MELTING OF THE NEW SNOW.

A VIGOROUS FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
EASTWARD FROM THE DAKOTAS TONIGHT...AND MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
REGION ON SATURDAY. INTENSE WAA DUE TO A 60 KNOT LLJ...ALONG WITH
IMPRESSIVE FGEN SHOULD RESULT IN A RAPID INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY. THE 4 KM NMM WRF IS QUITE IMPRESSIVE
WITH ITS FORECAST REFLECTIVITY OVERNIGHT...AND QPF IS QUITE HIGH.
PTYPE IS GOING TO BE AN ISSUE AS WE WILL LIKELY SEE A MIX OF ICY
PRECIPITATION. A SIGNIFICANT WARM LAYER COULD RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN AND EVEN SOME SLEET FOR A TIME. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW A
COMPLEX SCENARIO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY. OUR CONCERN IS
GROWING THAT SOME SIGNIFICANT ICING MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. ALSO THINK THERE COULD BE SOME DECENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
HAVE ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A MIXTURE OF FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THINK
SNOWFALL ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE IN THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD...WITH AN INCH OR TWO FURTHER SOUTH. WILL NEED TO
WATCH FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN UPGRADE TO A WARNING FOR EITHER
THE ICE OR THE SNOW. ROADS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME QUITE SLICK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SATURDAY NIGHT...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING ENE THROUGH
FAR NW ONTARIO. ITS COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD
OF MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN. THERE WILL LIKELY BE AT LEAST SOME
RAIN NEAR THE FRONT IN NW WISCONSIN SATURDAY EVENING...AS WELL AS
MAYBE ISOLATED THUNDER. PARTS OF THE ARROWHEAD AND COULD ALSO SEE
SOME LIGHT RAIN SATURDAY EVENING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THIS WILL BE A PERIOD WITH MUCH WARMER
WEATHER THAN OUR RECENT COLD STREAK...AND FOR THE MOST PART DRY.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...AND TUESDAY CLOSE TO NORMAL. THE HIGHS IN THE 50S AND LOW
60S SHOULD MELT MUCH OF THE REMAINING SNOWPACK ACROSS THE REGION. A
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SHORTWAVE...AND AN ACCOMPANYING SURFACE
LOW...WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND NW ONTARIO LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY...WHICH IS WHY TUESDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER
THAN MONDAY. THIS COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND SUNNY
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...A DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY NIGHT AND GRADUALLY MOVE EAST
TOWARDS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS
WILL CAUSE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE IN THE HIGH
PLAINS WEDNESDAY. INCREASE SOUTH TO SSE FLOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL
BEGIN TO DRAW MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THURSDAY. THE
NORTHLAND COULD SEE SOME DECENT RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION DURING
THIS PERIOD...PERHAPS WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO ONE INCH AMOUNTS.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...PARTLY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER PREVENTING MUCH HEATING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1155 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR EXCEPT AT HYR WHERE SOME BR AND ISOLD LIFR WITH FZFG UNTIL
08Z. MID CLOUDS ARRIVING FROM MN SHOULD BRING A STOP TO THE
RADIATIONAL BR/FZFG. ADD A VCSH MENTION AT INL AT 03Z AHEAD OF
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  28  47  35 /  10  60  80  10
INL  46  31  51  35 /  10  70  80   0
BRD  48  36  61  37 /  10  60  70   0
HYR  46  30  56  39 /  10  20  70  50
ASX  42  27  51  37 /  10  30  80  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ010-011-018-019-026-037.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CDT
     SATURDAY FOR MNZ012-020-021.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF








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