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000
FXUS63 KDLH 240011
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
611 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WATCH FOR ICY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AND WET ROADS/SIDEWALKS RE-FREEZE.

HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ TO ACCOMPANY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAPIDLY COOLING
TEMPS AT THE SFC AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NW.
HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW HOUR LAG TIME IN
COOLING THE TOP OF THE TOP OF THE COULD LAYER...TO SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SUPER-COOLED WATER DROPLETS AND SUPPORT FZDZ. THERE WAS
FREEZING DRIZZLE REPORTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS
EVENING OVER NE NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH PROMPTED THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE NWS OFFICE IN FGF FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL MN. AT 800 PM...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WAS
REPORTED AT THE GRAND FORKS AIRPORT.

AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE DUE
TO THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE FZDZ. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH SHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS INTO PINE COUNTY. THIS
PRECIP AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
HAS MOVED INTO NW MN AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HWY 53 IN NE MN BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR REACHES THE
MN/WI BORDER. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY
IN NW WI WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO THE ARROWHEAD TO NW WI AWAY FOR THE LAKE.

AS THE WIND SWITCHES AROUND TO THE NORTH-NW...850 TEMPS WILL DROP
TO THE -10 TO -14 RANGE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH
ADVISORY IN THOSE AREA BUT MAY NEED A WARNING IN IRON COUNTY IF
HIGHER AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COLD NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT...BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THE
NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A CANADIAN CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION AND KEEPS THE PCPN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GEM BRINGS THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...SO IT AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW MUCH MORE THAN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE
GEM OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE NORTHLAND
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OR SO WITH THE PASSING OF THIS
CLIPPER.

COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR
THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER CLIPPER COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BRING MORE SNOW
TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 600 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ TO ACCOMPANY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAPIDLY COOLING
TEMPS AT THE SFC AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NW.
HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW HOUR LAG TIME IN
COOLING THE TOP OF THE TOP OF THE COULD LAYER...TO SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SUPER- COOLED WATER DROPLETS AND SUPPORT FZDZ. AT 800
PM...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WAS REPORTED AT THE GRAND
FORKS AIRPORT. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE DUE TO THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE FZDZ. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE DRIZZLE WILL EVENTUALLY TURN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NW
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  26   9  23 /  70  70  40   0
INL  18  18   4  19 /  50  60  20   0
BRD  19  21   8  24 /  50  50  10   0
HYR  28  29  10  23 /  80  80  80   0
ASX  30  31  15  25 /  90 100  90   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING









000
FXUS63 KDLH 240011
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
611 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 526 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WATCH FOR ICY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY FALL
BELOW THE FREEZING MARK AND WET ROADS/SIDEWALKS RE-FREEZE.

HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ TO ACCOMPANY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAPIDLY COOLING
TEMPS AT THE SFC AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NW.
HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW HOUR LAG TIME IN
COOLING THE TOP OF THE TOP OF THE COULD LAYER...TO SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SUPER-COOLED WATER DROPLETS AND SUPPORT FZDZ. THERE WAS
FREEZING DRIZZLE REPORTED ALONG THE COLD FRONT EARLIER THIS
EVENING OVER NE NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH PROMPTED THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY TO BE ISSUED BY THE NWS OFFICE IN FGF FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL MN. AT 800 PM...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WAS
REPORTED AT THE GRAND FORKS AIRPORT.

AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT GLAZE OF ICE DUE
TO THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE FZDZ. HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH SHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS INTO PINE COUNTY. THIS
PRECIP AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
HAS MOVED INTO NW MN AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HWY 53 IN NE MN BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR REACHES THE
MN/WI BORDER. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY
IN NW WI WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO THE ARROWHEAD TO NW WI AWAY FOR THE LAKE.

AS THE WIND SWITCHES AROUND TO THE NORTH-NW...850 TEMPS WILL DROP
TO THE -10 TO -14 RANGE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH
ADVISORY IN THOSE AREA BUT MAY NEED A WARNING IN IRON COUNTY IF
HIGHER AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COLD NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT...BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THE
NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A CANADIAN CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION AND KEEPS THE PCPN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GEM BRINGS THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...SO IT AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW MUCH MORE THAN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE
GEM OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE NORTHLAND
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OR SO WITH THE PASSING OF THIS
CLIPPER.

COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR
THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER CLIPPER COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BRING MORE SNOW
TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 600 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.

HAVE INTRODUCED A FEW HOUR PERIOD OF -FZDZ TO ACCOMPANY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE OVERNIGHT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING RAPIDLY COOLING
TEMPS AT THE SFC AS WINDS BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE NW.
HOWEVER...LATEST BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A FEW HOUR LAG TIME IN
COOLING THE TOP OF THE TOP OF THE COULD LAYER...TO SUPPORT SOME
LINGERING SUPER- COOLED WATER DROPLETS AND SUPPORT FZDZ. AT 800
PM...A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW WAS REPORTED AT THE GRAND
FORKS AIRPORT. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN A LIGHT
GLAZE OF ICE DUE TO THE BRIEF NATURE OF THE FZDZ. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE DRIZZLE WILL EVENTUALLY TURN OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD NW
WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KT THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  26   9  23 /  70  70  40   0
INL  18  18   4  19 /  50  60  20   0
BRD  19  21   8  24 /  50  50  10   0
HYR  28  29  10  23 /  80  80  80   0
ASX  30  31  15  25 /  90 100  90   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING










000
FXUS63 KDLH 232232
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH SHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS INTO PINE COUNTY. THIS
PRECIP AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
HAS MOVED INTO NW MN AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HWY 53 IN NE MN BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR REACHES THE
MN/WI BORDER. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY
IN NW WI WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO THE ARROWHEAD TO NW WI AWAY FOR THE LAKE.

AS THE WIND SWITCHES AROUND TO THE NORTH-NW...850 TEMPS WILL DROP
TO THE -10 TO -14 RANGE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH
ADVISORY IN THOSE AREA BUT MAY NEED A WARNING IN IRON COUNTY IF
HIGHER AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COLD NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT...BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THE
NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A CANADIAN CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION AND KEEPS THE PCPN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GEM BRINGS THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...SO IT AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW MUCH MORE THAN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE
GEM OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE NORTHLAND
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OR SO WITH THE PASSING OF THIS
CLIPPER.

COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR
THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER CLIPPER COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BRING MORE SNOW
TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KBRD...WHICH WILL
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORIATE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT
ELSEWHERE WITH CONDITIONS ALSO DETERIORIATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE AND -SN WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A TRANSITION TO -SN OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF -SN/BLSN AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  26   9  23 /  70  70  40   0
INL  18  18   4  19 /  50  60   0   0
BRD  19  21   8  24 /  50  50  10   0
HYR  28  29  10  23 /  80  80  60   0
ASX  30  31  15  25 /  90 100  80   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 232232
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH SHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS INTO PINE COUNTY. THIS
PRECIP AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
HAS MOVED INTO NW MN AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HWY 53 IN NE MN BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR REACHES THE
MN/WI BORDER. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY
IN NW WI WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO THE ARROWHEAD TO NW WI AWAY FOR THE LAKE.

AS THE WIND SWITCHES AROUND TO THE NORTH-NW...850 TEMPS WILL DROP
TO THE -10 TO -14 RANGE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH
ADVISORY IN THOSE AREA BUT MAY NEED A WARNING IN IRON COUNTY IF
HIGHER AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COLD NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT...BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THE
NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A CANADIAN CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION AND KEEPS THE PCPN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GEM BRINGS THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...SO IT AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW MUCH MORE THAN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE
GEM OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE NORTHLAND
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OR SO WITH THE PASSING OF THIS
CLIPPER.

COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR
THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER CLIPPER COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BRING MORE SNOW
TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KBRD...WHICH WILL
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORIATE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT
ELSEWHERE WITH CONDITIONS ALSO DETERIORIATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE AND -SN WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A TRANSITION TO -SN OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF -SN/BLSN AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  26   9  23 /  70  70  40   0
INL  18  18   4  19 /  50  60   0   0
BRD  19  21   8  24 /  50  50  10   0
HYR  28  29  10  23 /  80  80  60   0
ASX  30  31  15  25 /  90 100  80   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 232232
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW TONIGHT AND
SNOW AMOUNTS ALONG SOUTH SHORE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES AREA OF RAIN SHOWERS EXTENDING
FROM THE ARROWHEAD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS INTO PINE COUNTY. THIS
PRECIP AREA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EAST THIS EVENING. COLDER AIR
HAS MOVED INTO NW MN AND SPREADING SOUTHEAST. THERE MAY BE SOME
LIGHT SNOW LATE TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS WEST OF HWY 53 IN NE MN BUT
LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS. THE MAIN MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INTO THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY MONDAY MORNING AS THE COLDER AIR REACHES THE
MN/WI BORDER. THE RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW BY SUNRISE MONDAY
IN NW WI WITH 1-3 INCHES EXPECTED BY MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE TWIN
PORTS TO THE ARROWHEAD TO NW WI AWAY FOR THE LAKE.

AS THE WIND SWITCHES AROUND TO THE NORTH-NW...850 TEMPS WILL DROP
TO THE -10 TO -14 RANGE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL CAUSE LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHSHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 09Z TUESDAY WHEN THE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. WILL GO WITH
ADVISORY IN THOSE AREA BUT MAY NEED A WARNING IN IRON COUNTY IF
HIGHER AMOUNTS MATERIALIZE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 432 PM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW RATES WILL CONTINUE OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY EVENING DUE TO THE COLD NW FLOW OVER THE NORTHLAND.
HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING...SO THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY COME TO
AN END BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT...BUT GENERALLY INDICATE THE
NORTHLAND COULD BE AFFECTED BY A CANADIAN CLIPPER THAT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE PLAINS AND MIDWEST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE GFS
IS THE FARTHEST SOUTH SOLUTION AND KEEPS THE PCPN WELL SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE GEM BRINGS THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA...SO IT AFFECTS THE NORTHLAND WITH SNOW MUCH MORE THAN
THE GFS AND ECMWF. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. IF THE
GEM OR ECMWF SOLUTIONS ARE ON THE RIGHT TRACK...THEN THE NORTHLAND
COULD GET UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW OR SO WITH THE PASSING OF THIS
CLIPPER.

COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF
THE CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LIGHT TO MODERATE LAKE EFFECT SNOW NEAR
THE GOGEBIC RANGE IN IRON COUNTY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY.

THE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING ANOTHER CLIPPER COULD MOVE THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST LATE THIS WEEK AND BRING MORE SNOW
TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KBRD...WHICH WILL
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORIATE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT
ELSEWHERE WITH CONDITIONS ALSO DETERIORIATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE AND -SN WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A TRANSITION TO -SN OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF -SN/BLSN AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  26   9  23 /  70  70  40   0
INL  18  18   4  19 /  50  60   0   0
BRD  19  21   8  24 /  50  50  10   0
HYR  28  29  10  23 /  80  80  60   0
ASX  30  31  15  25 /  90 100  80   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

     LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY FROM 6 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM CST TUESDAY
     FOR WIZ001>004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ140>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 231742
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1142 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO EXTEND THE DENSE FIG ADVISORY THORUGH 00Z TONIGHT AS
MANY OBS STILL SHOW LOW VISBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION.
ALSO...INCREASE POPS FOR RAIN IN PINE AND THE SOUTHERN NW WI
COUNTIES FOR THE AREA OF RAIN COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH.

***1140 AM CST AVIATION DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM***

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS IN NW WI AS THEY ARE ALREADY AT THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED HIGHS. ALSO MADE MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND
POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 18Z SINCE THERE IS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE REGION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM...SPECIFICALLY
IN REGARDS TO SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE 00Z MODEL SUITE FEATURED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS THERE WERE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...THEN THE NAM/GEM WHICH WERE SLOWER WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SUGGESTED HIGHER SNOWFALL OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN CWA INCLUDING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE USED A BLEND AS WE
COULD NOT DISCOUNT THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 06Z
NAM DOES SHOW THE LOW MOVING THROUGH A BIT FASTER.

A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND NORTHERN STREAM WAVES
SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER IN THE 4 CORNERS AREA WILL
ALL COMBINE TO CAUSE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO REFORM OVER/NEAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...THEN TRACKING THE LOW
NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER THIRTIES FOR MOST AREAS AS OF 09Z. THERE MAY BE SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON SOME ROADS THOUGH AS THOSE TEMPS MAY BE AT/BELOW
FREEZING.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE TODAY...AND
SOUNDINGS/WET BULB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST PRECIP TYPE WILL
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. WE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
FOR MOST AREAS AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN QUESTION MONDAY...WITH THE
NAM/GEM SUGGESTING MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WE HAD GOING. WE DID
INCREASE SNOWFALL...BUT DID NOT BUY INTO THE HIGH END AMOUNTS. THE
SREF PLUMES DEMONSTRATE THIS PROBLEM WITH THE 03Z RUN SHOWING
SNOWFALL SPREADS FROM NO ACCUM TO A COUPLE MEMBERS OVER 15INCHES
AT KDLH.

WE EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND MONDAY...AND
HAVE SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTIONED. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON THIS SHIFT...BUT THE AREA
ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO THE TWIN PORTS...INCLUDING ALL OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA MAY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WARRANT AN ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE
WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF MODELS AND LET THE NEXT CREW ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW FROM THE LOW WILL OCCUR
MONDAY...THEN THE LAKE WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDED SNOWFALL MONDAY
NIGHT. A GOOD FETCH WILL EXIST WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND
-12C CREATING FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PEAK EARLY...THEN DROP THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUED THIS MORNING AND WE WILL EXTEND THE
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON AND INCLUDED THE NORTH SHORE ZONES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY..BUT
AS 925/850 THERMAL TROF TRANSLATES EAST OF THE WRN GRT LAKES AND
WINDS BACK TO MORE WESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED AS GRADIENT
RELAXES..HEAT FLUX OFF THE LAKE SHOULD WANE FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SIG ACCUMULATION OVER BAYFIELD/IRON/
ASHLAND COUNTIES AFTER TUESDAY MORNING APPEARS RATHER SMALL.

MAIN ITEM OF ATTENTION THEN BECOMES WHAT INCREASINGLY LOOKS LIKE A
RATHER POTENT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NITE/WEDNESDAY. MOST
OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS A VERY STRONG VORT MAX FROM N
DAKOTA TUE NITE TO S CENT WI BY WED EVENING..AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG I94. IF CURRENTLY FORECASTED MODEL
MASS FIELDS ARE IN THE BALL PARK..A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF EXTREMELY
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN DULUTH CWA.  CURRENT MODEL PROGS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG MESOSCALE FRONTOGENESIS FORCING..IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHERE.  THE TWO
LIMITING FACTORS APPEAR TO BE THERMAL PROFILES..WHICH ARE NOT IN THE
IDEAL CRYSTAL GROWTH REGIMES..AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM..WHICH WILL
ACT TO LIMIT THE DURATION.  STILL..IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR 4-5 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS..AND PERHAPS HEAVIER IF STRONG
FGEN EVOLVES AS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM..WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES..AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE SOUTH SHORE. A SECONDARY REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SOMETIME AROUND FRIDAY..WITH SIMILAR EFFECTS ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KBRD...WHICH WILL
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORIATE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT
ELSEWHERE WITH CONDITIONS ALSO DETERIORIATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE AND -SN WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A TRANSITION TO -SN OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF -SN/BLSN AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  24  26   8 /  30  70  70  30
INL  38  18  18   2 /  20  50  60  10
BRD  40  19  21   7 /  20  50  50  10
HYR  48  28  29   8 /  60  80  80  50
ASX  47  30  31  13 /  50  90 100  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ020-021-
     037-038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WIZ003-004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ141>147.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ140.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 231742
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1142 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1140 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO EXTEND THE DENSE FIG ADVISORY THORUGH 00Z TONIGHT AS
MANY OBS STILL SHOW LOW VISBILITIES ACROSS THE REGION.
ALSO...INCREASE POPS FOR RAIN IN PINE AND THE SOUTHERN NW WI
COUNTIES FOR THE AREA OF RAIN COMING UP FROM THE SOUTH.

***1140 AM CST AVIATION DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM***

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS IN NW WI AS THEY ARE ALREADY AT THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED HIGHS. ALSO MADE MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND
POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 18Z SINCE THERE IS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE REGION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM...SPECIFICALLY
IN REGARDS TO SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE 00Z MODEL SUITE FEATURED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS THERE WERE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...THEN THE NAM/GEM WHICH WERE SLOWER WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SUGGESTED HIGHER SNOWFALL OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN CWA INCLUDING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE USED A BLEND AS WE
COULD NOT DISCOUNT THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 06Z
NAM DOES SHOW THE LOW MOVING THROUGH A BIT FASTER.

A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND NORTHERN STREAM WAVES
SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER IN THE 4 CORNERS AREA WILL
ALL COMBINE TO CAUSE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO REFORM OVER/NEAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...THEN TRACKING THE LOW
NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER THIRTIES FOR MOST AREAS AS OF 09Z. THERE MAY BE SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON SOME ROADS THOUGH AS THOSE TEMPS MAY BE AT/BELOW
FREEZING.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE TODAY...AND
SOUNDINGS/WET BULB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST PRECIP TYPE WILL
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. WE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
FOR MOST AREAS AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN QUESTION MONDAY...WITH THE
NAM/GEM SUGGESTING MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WE HAD GOING. WE DID
INCREASE SNOWFALL...BUT DID NOT BUY INTO THE HIGH END AMOUNTS. THE
SREF PLUMES DEMONSTRATE THIS PROBLEM WITH THE 03Z RUN SHOWING
SNOWFALL SPREADS FROM NO ACCUM TO A COUPLE MEMBERS OVER 15INCHES
AT KDLH.

WE EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND MONDAY...AND
HAVE SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTIONED. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON THIS SHIFT...BUT THE AREA
ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO THE TWIN PORTS...INCLUDING ALL OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA MAY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WARRANT AN ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE
WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF MODELS AND LET THE NEXT CREW ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW FROM THE LOW WILL OCCUR
MONDAY...THEN THE LAKE WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDED SNOWFALL MONDAY
NIGHT. A GOOD FETCH WILL EXIST WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND
-12C CREATING FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PEAK EARLY...THEN DROP THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUED THIS MORNING AND WE WILL EXTEND THE
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON AND INCLUDED THE NORTH SHORE ZONES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY..BUT
AS 925/850 THERMAL TROF TRANSLATES EAST OF THE WRN GRT LAKES AND
WINDS BACK TO MORE WESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED AS GRADIENT
RELAXES..HEAT FLUX OFF THE LAKE SHOULD WANE FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SIG ACCUMULATION OVER BAYFIELD/IRON/
ASHLAND COUNTIES AFTER TUESDAY MORNING APPEARS RATHER SMALL.

MAIN ITEM OF ATTENTION THEN BECOMES WHAT INCREASINGLY LOOKS LIKE A
RATHER POTENT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NITE/WEDNESDAY. MOST
OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS A VERY STRONG VORT MAX FROM N
DAKOTA TUE NITE TO S CENT WI BY WED EVENING..AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG I94. IF CURRENTLY FORECASTED MODEL
MASS FIELDS ARE IN THE BALL PARK..A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF EXTREMELY
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN DULUTH CWA.  CURRENT MODEL PROGS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG MESOSCALE FRONTOGENESIS FORCING..IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHERE.  THE TWO
LIMITING FACTORS APPEAR TO BE THERMAL PROFILES..WHICH ARE NOT IN THE
IDEAL CRYSTAL GROWTH REGIMES..AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM..WHICH WILL
ACT TO LIMIT THE DURATION.  STILL..IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR 4-5 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS..AND PERHAPS HEAVIER IF STRONG
FGEN EVOLVES AS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM..WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES..AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE SOUTH SHORE. A SECONDARY REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SOMETIME AROUND FRIDAY..WITH SIMILAR EFFECTS ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1140 CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THE WIDESPREAD LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN LATE THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. THE EXCEPTION IS AT KBRD...WHICH WILL
SEE A PERIOD OF MVFR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE CONDITIONS
DETERIORIATE AGAIN THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE MINIMAL IMPROVEMENT
ELSEWHERE WITH CONDITIONS ALSO DETERIORIATING LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. DRIZZLE AND -SN WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING WITH A TRANSITION TO -SN OVERNIGHT FROM
WEST TO EAST. GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF -SN/BLSN AND LOW CIGS WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  24  26   8 /  30  70  70  30
INL  38  18  18   2 /  20  50  60  10
BRD  40  19  21   7 /  20  50  50  10
HYR  48  28  29   8 /  60  80  80  50
ASX  47  30  31  13 /  50  90 100  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR MNZ020-021-
     037-038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WIZ003-004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ141>147.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ140.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 231602
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1002 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS IN NW WI AS THEY ARE ALREADY AT THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED HIGHS. ALSO MADE MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND
POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 18Z SINCE THERE IS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE REGION.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM...SPECIFICALLY
IN REGARDS TO SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE 00Z MODEL SUITE FEATURED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS THERE WERE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...THEN THE NAM/GEM WHICH WERE SLOWER WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SUGGESTED HIGHER SNOWFALL OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN CWA INCLUDING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE USED A BLEND AS WE
COULD NOT DISCOUNT THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 06Z
NAM DOES SHOW THE LOW MOVING THROUGH A BIT FASTER.

A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND NORTHERN STREAM WAVES
SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER IN THE 4 CORNERS AREA WILL
ALL COMBINE TO CAUSE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO REFORM OVER/NEAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...THEN TRACKING THE LOW
NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER THIRTIES FOR MOST AREAS AS OF 09Z. THERE MAY BE SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON SOME ROADS THOUGH AS THOSE TEMPS MAY BE AT/BELOW
FREEZING.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE TODAY...AND
SOUNDINGS/WET BULB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST PRECIP TYPE WILL
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. WE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
FOR MOST AREAS AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN QUESTION MONDAY...WITH THE
NAM/GEM SUGGESTING MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WE HAD GOING. WE DID
INCREASE SNOWFALL...BUT DID NOT BUY INTO THE HIGH END AMOUNTS. THE
SREF PLUMES DEMONSTRATE THIS PROBLEM WITH THE 03Z RUN SHOWING
SNOWFALL SPREADS FROM NO ACCUM TO A COUPLE MEMBERS OVER 15INCHES
AT KDLH.

WE EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND MONDAY...AND
HAVE SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTIONED. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON THIS SHIFT...BUT THE AREA
ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO THE TWIN PORTS...INCLUDING ALL OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA MAY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WARRANT AN ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE
WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF MODELS AND LET THE NEXT CREW ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW FROM THE LOW WILL OCCUR
MONDAY...THEN THE LAKE WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDED SNOWFALL MONDAY
NIGHT. A GOOD FETCH WILL EXIST WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND
-12C CREATING FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PEAK EARLY...THEN DROP THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUED THIS MORNING AND WE WILL EXTEND THE
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON AND INCLUDED THE NORTH SHORE ZONES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY..BUT
AS 925/850 THERMAL TROF TRANSLATES EAST OF THE WRN GRT LAKES AND
WINDS BACK TO MORE WESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED AS GRADIENT
RELAXES..HEAT FLUX OFF THE LAKE SHOULD WANE FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SIG ACCUMULATION OVER BAYFIELD/IRON/
ASHLAND COUNTIES AFTER TUESDAY MORNING APPEARS RATHER SMALL.

MAIN ITEM OF ATTENTION THEN BECOMES WHAT INCREASINGLY LOOKS LIKE A
RATHER POTENT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NITE/WEDNESDAY. MOST
OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS A VERY STRONG VORT MAX FROM N
DAKOTA TUE NITE TO S CENT WI BY WED EVENING..AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG I94. IF CURRENTLY FORECASTED MODEL
MASS FIELDS ARE IN THE BALL PARK..A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF EXTREMELY
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN DULUTH CWA.  CURRENT MODEL PROGS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG MESOSCALE FRONTOGENESIS FORCING..IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHERE.  THE TWO
LIMITING FACTORS APPEAR TO BE THERMAL PROFILES..WHICH ARE NOT IN THE
IDEAL CRYSTAL GROWTH REGIMES..AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM..WHICH WILL
ACT TO LIMIT THE DURATION.  STILL..IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR 4-5 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS..AND PERHAPS HEAVIER IF STRONG
FGEN EVOLVES AS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM..WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES..AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE SOUTH SHORE. A SECONDARY REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SOMETIME AROUND FRIDAY..WITH SIMILAR EFFECTS ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING AS RELATIVELY
WARM/MOIST NEAR-SURFACE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER SNOW PACK
AND RESIDUAL COLD GROUND. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE..BUT MOSTLY IT HAS BEEN A FOG AND LOW
CEILING/VSBY EVENT. THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO HAVE
TEMPORARILY ENDED AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL TAF SITES.

LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY..AND WE HAVE TIMED THE
RAISING OF CEILINGS/VSBYS TO GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A
SWITCH TO WEST WINDS. THERE WILL BE A 4-7 HOUR TRANSITION TIME
WHERE MIXED PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY FZDZ AND -SN/ LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING..BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROMPT A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
LATE EVENING AT ALL THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE..ESPECIALLY DURING THE LAST 6
HOURS OF THIS TAF WINDOW. KHYR WILL BE THE LAST TO SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW..BUT SHOULD ALSO SEE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST SUSTAINED SNOW
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SIG LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING NNEWD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  24  26   8 /  30  70  70  30
INL  38  18  18   2 /  20  50  60  10
BRD  40  19  21   7 /  20  50  50  10
HYR  48  28  29   8 /  50  80  80  50
ASX  47  30  31  13 /  50  90 100  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ018>021-025-026-
     033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WIZ003-004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ141>147.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ140.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART







000
FXUS63 KDLH 231602
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1002 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS IN NW WI AS THEY ARE ALREADY AT THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED HIGHS. ALSO MADE MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND
POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 18Z SINCE THERE IS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE REGION.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM...SPECIFICALLY
IN REGARDS TO SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE 00Z MODEL SUITE FEATURED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS THERE WERE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...THEN THE NAM/GEM WHICH WERE SLOWER WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SUGGESTED HIGHER SNOWFALL OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN CWA INCLUDING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE USED A BLEND AS WE
COULD NOT DISCOUNT THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 06Z
NAM DOES SHOW THE LOW MOVING THROUGH A BIT FASTER.

A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND NORTHERN STREAM WAVES
SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER IN THE 4 CORNERS AREA WILL
ALL COMBINE TO CAUSE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO REFORM OVER/NEAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...THEN TRACKING THE LOW
NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER THIRTIES FOR MOST AREAS AS OF 09Z. THERE MAY BE SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON SOME ROADS THOUGH AS THOSE TEMPS MAY BE AT/BELOW
FREEZING.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE TODAY...AND
SOUNDINGS/WET BULB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST PRECIP TYPE WILL
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. WE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
FOR MOST AREAS AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN QUESTION MONDAY...WITH THE
NAM/GEM SUGGESTING MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WE HAD GOING. WE DID
INCREASE SNOWFALL...BUT DID NOT BUY INTO THE HIGH END AMOUNTS. THE
SREF PLUMES DEMONSTRATE THIS PROBLEM WITH THE 03Z RUN SHOWING
SNOWFALL SPREADS FROM NO ACCUM TO A COUPLE MEMBERS OVER 15INCHES
AT KDLH.

WE EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND MONDAY...AND
HAVE SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTIONED. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON THIS SHIFT...BUT THE AREA
ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO THE TWIN PORTS...INCLUDING ALL OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA MAY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WARRANT AN ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE
WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF MODELS AND LET THE NEXT CREW ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW FROM THE LOW WILL OCCUR
MONDAY...THEN THE LAKE WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDED SNOWFALL MONDAY
NIGHT. A GOOD FETCH WILL EXIST WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND
-12C CREATING FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PEAK EARLY...THEN DROP THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUED THIS MORNING AND WE WILL EXTEND THE
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON AND INCLUDED THE NORTH SHORE ZONES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY..BUT
AS 925/850 THERMAL TROF TRANSLATES EAST OF THE WRN GRT LAKES AND
WINDS BACK TO MORE WESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED AS GRADIENT
RELAXES..HEAT FLUX OFF THE LAKE SHOULD WANE FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SIG ACCUMULATION OVER BAYFIELD/IRON/
ASHLAND COUNTIES AFTER TUESDAY MORNING APPEARS RATHER SMALL.

MAIN ITEM OF ATTENTION THEN BECOMES WHAT INCREASINGLY LOOKS LIKE A
RATHER POTENT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NITE/WEDNESDAY. MOST
OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS A VERY STRONG VORT MAX FROM N
DAKOTA TUE NITE TO S CENT WI BY WED EVENING..AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG I94. IF CURRENTLY FORECASTED MODEL
MASS FIELDS ARE IN THE BALL PARK..A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF EXTREMELY
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN DULUTH CWA.  CURRENT MODEL PROGS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG MESOSCALE FRONTOGENESIS FORCING..IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHERE.  THE TWO
LIMITING FACTORS APPEAR TO BE THERMAL PROFILES..WHICH ARE NOT IN THE
IDEAL CRYSTAL GROWTH REGIMES..AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM..WHICH WILL
ACT TO LIMIT THE DURATION.  STILL..IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR 4-5 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS..AND PERHAPS HEAVIER IF STRONG
FGEN EVOLVES AS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM..WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES..AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE SOUTH SHORE. A SECONDARY REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SOMETIME AROUND FRIDAY..WITH SIMILAR EFFECTS ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING AS RELATIVELY
WARM/MOIST NEAR-SURFACE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER SNOW PACK
AND RESIDUAL COLD GROUND. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE..BUT MOSTLY IT HAS BEEN A FOG AND LOW
CEILING/VSBY EVENT. THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO HAVE
TEMPORARILY ENDED AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL TAF SITES.

LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY..AND WE HAVE TIMED THE
RAISING OF CEILINGS/VSBYS TO GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A
SWITCH TO WEST WINDS. THERE WILL BE A 4-7 HOUR TRANSITION TIME
WHERE MIXED PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY FZDZ AND -SN/ LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING..BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROMPT A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
LATE EVENING AT ALL THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE..ESPECIALLY DURING THE LAST 6
HOURS OF THIS TAF WINDOW. KHYR WILL BE THE LAST TO SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW..BUT SHOULD ALSO SEE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST SUSTAINED SNOW
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SIG LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING NNEWD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  24  26   8 /  30  70  70  30
INL  38  18  18   2 /  20  50  60  10
BRD  40  19  21   7 /  20  50  50  10
HYR  48  28  29   8 /  50  80  80  50
ASX  47  30  31  13 /  50  90 100  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ018>021-025-026-
     033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WIZ003-004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ141>147.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ140.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART







000
FXUS63 KDLH 231602
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1002 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS IN NW WI AS THEY ARE ALREADY AT THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED HIGHS. ALSO MADE MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND
POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 18Z SINCE THERE IS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE REGION.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM...SPECIFICALLY
IN REGARDS TO SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE 00Z MODEL SUITE FEATURED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS THERE WERE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...THEN THE NAM/GEM WHICH WERE SLOWER WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SUGGESTED HIGHER SNOWFALL OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN CWA INCLUDING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE USED A BLEND AS WE
COULD NOT DISCOUNT THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 06Z
NAM DOES SHOW THE LOW MOVING THROUGH A BIT FASTER.

A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND NORTHERN STREAM WAVES
SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER IN THE 4 CORNERS AREA WILL
ALL COMBINE TO CAUSE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO REFORM OVER/NEAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...THEN TRACKING THE LOW
NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER THIRTIES FOR MOST AREAS AS OF 09Z. THERE MAY BE SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON SOME ROADS THOUGH AS THOSE TEMPS MAY BE AT/BELOW
FREEZING.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE TODAY...AND
SOUNDINGS/WET BULB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST PRECIP TYPE WILL
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. WE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
FOR MOST AREAS AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN QUESTION MONDAY...WITH THE
NAM/GEM SUGGESTING MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WE HAD GOING. WE DID
INCREASE SNOWFALL...BUT DID NOT BUY INTO THE HIGH END AMOUNTS. THE
SREF PLUMES DEMONSTRATE THIS PROBLEM WITH THE 03Z RUN SHOWING
SNOWFALL SPREADS FROM NO ACCUM TO A COUPLE MEMBERS OVER 15INCHES
AT KDLH.

WE EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND MONDAY...AND
HAVE SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTIONED. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON THIS SHIFT...BUT THE AREA
ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO THE TWIN PORTS...INCLUDING ALL OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA MAY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WARRANT AN ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE
WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF MODELS AND LET THE NEXT CREW ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW FROM THE LOW WILL OCCUR
MONDAY...THEN THE LAKE WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDED SNOWFALL MONDAY
NIGHT. A GOOD FETCH WILL EXIST WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND
-12C CREATING FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PEAK EARLY...THEN DROP THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUED THIS MORNING AND WE WILL EXTEND THE
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON AND INCLUDED THE NORTH SHORE ZONES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY..BUT
AS 925/850 THERMAL TROF TRANSLATES EAST OF THE WRN GRT LAKES AND
WINDS BACK TO MORE WESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED AS GRADIENT
RELAXES..HEAT FLUX OFF THE LAKE SHOULD WANE FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SIG ACCUMULATION OVER BAYFIELD/IRON/
ASHLAND COUNTIES AFTER TUESDAY MORNING APPEARS RATHER SMALL.

MAIN ITEM OF ATTENTION THEN BECOMES WHAT INCREASINGLY LOOKS LIKE A
RATHER POTENT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NITE/WEDNESDAY. MOST
OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS A VERY STRONG VORT MAX FROM N
DAKOTA TUE NITE TO S CENT WI BY WED EVENING..AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG I94. IF CURRENTLY FORECASTED MODEL
MASS FIELDS ARE IN THE BALL PARK..A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF EXTREMELY
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN DULUTH CWA.  CURRENT MODEL PROGS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG MESOSCALE FRONTOGENESIS FORCING..IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHERE.  THE TWO
LIMITING FACTORS APPEAR TO BE THERMAL PROFILES..WHICH ARE NOT IN THE
IDEAL CRYSTAL GROWTH REGIMES..AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM..WHICH WILL
ACT TO LIMIT THE DURATION.  STILL..IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR 4-5 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS..AND PERHAPS HEAVIER IF STRONG
FGEN EVOLVES AS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM..WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES..AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE SOUTH SHORE. A SECONDARY REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SOMETIME AROUND FRIDAY..WITH SIMILAR EFFECTS ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING AS RELATIVELY
WARM/MOIST NEAR-SURFACE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER SNOW PACK
AND RESIDUAL COLD GROUND. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE..BUT MOSTLY IT HAS BEEN A FOG AND LOW
CEILING/VSBY EVENT. THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO HAVE
TEMPORARILY ENDED AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL TAF SITES.

LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY..AND WE HAVE TIMED THE
RAISING OF CEILINGS/VSBYS TO GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A
SWITCH TO WEST WINDS. THERE WILL BE A 4-7 HOUR TRANSITION TIME
WHERE MIXED PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY FZDZ AND -SN/ LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING..BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROMPT A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
LATE EVENING AT ALL THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE..ESPECIALLY DURING THE LAST 6
HOURS OF THIS TAF WINDOW. KHYR WILL BE THE LAST TO SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW..BUT SHOULD ALSO SEE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST SUSTAINED SNOW
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SIG LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING NNEWD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  24  26   8 /  30  70  70  30
INL  38  18  18   2 /  20  50  60  10
BRD  40  19  21   7 /  20  50  50  10
HYR  48  28  29   8 /  50  80  80  50
ASX  47  30  31  13 /  50  90 100  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ018>021-025-026-
     033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WIZ003-004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ141>147.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ140.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 231602
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1002 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1001 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS IN NW WI AS THEY ARE ALREADY AT THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED HIGHS. ALSO MADE MINOR CHANGES TO WINDS AND
POPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. WILL KEEP DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT THROUGH 18Z SINCE THERE IS WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG IN THE REGION.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM...SPECIFICALLY
IN REGARDS TO SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE 00Z MODEL SUITE FEATURED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS THERE WERE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...THEN THE NAM/GEM WHICH WERE SLOWER WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SUGGESTED HIGHER SNOWFALL OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN CWA INCLUDING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE USED A BLEND AS WE
COULD NOT DISCOUNT THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 06Z
NAM DOES SHOW THE LOW MOVING THROUGH A BIT FASTER.

A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND NORTHERN STREAM WAVES
SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER IN THE 4 CORNERS AREA WILL
ALL COMBINE TO CAUSE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO REFORM OVER/NEAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...THEN TRACKING THE LOW
NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER THIRTIES FOR MOST AREAS AS OF 09Z. THERE MAY BE SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON SOME ROADS THOUGH AS THOSE TEMPS MAY BE AT/BELOW
FREEZING.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE TODAY...AND
SOUNDINGS/WET BULB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST PRECIP TYPE WILL
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. WE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
FOR MOST AREAS AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN QUESTION MONDAY...WITH THE
NAM/GEM SUGGESTING MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WE HAD GOING. WE DID
INCREASE SNOWFALL...BUT DID NOT BUY INTO THE HIGH END AMOUNTS. THE
SREF PLUMES DEMONSTRATE THIS PROBLEM WITH THE 03Z RUN SHOWING
SNOWFALL SPREADS FROM NO ACCUM TO A COUPLE MEMBERS OVER 15INCHES
AT KDLH.

WE EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND MONDAY...AND
HAVE SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTIONED. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON THIS SHIFT...BUT THE AREA
ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO THE TWIN PORTS...INCLUDING ALL OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA MAY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WARRANT AN ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE
WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF MODELS AND LET THE NEXT CREW ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW FROM THE LOW WILL OCCUR
MONDAY...THEN THE LAKE WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDED SNOWFALL MONDAY
NIGHT. A GOOD FETCH WILL EXIST WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND
-12C CREATING FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PEAK EARLY...THEN DROP THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUED THIS MORNING AND WE WILL EXTEND THE
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON AND INCLUDED THE NORTH SHORE ZONES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY..BUT
AS 925/850 THERMAL TROF TRANSLATES EAST OF THE WRN GRT LAKES AND
WINDS BACK TO MORE WESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED AS GRADIENT
RELAXES..HEAT FLUX OFF THE LAKE SHOULD WANE FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SIG ACCUMULATION OVER BAYFIELD/IRON/
ASHLAND COUNTIES AFTER TUESDAY MORNING APPEARS RATHER SMALL.

MAIN ITEM OF ATTENTION THEN BECOMES WHAT INCREASINGLY LOOKS LIKE A
RATHER POTENT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NITE/WEDNESDAY. MOST
OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS A VERY STRONG VORT MAX FROM N
DAKOTA TUE NITE TO S CENT WI BY WED EVENING..AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG I94. IF CURRENTLY FORECASTED MODEL
MASS FIELDS ARE IN THE BALL PARK..A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF EXTREMELY
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN DULUTH CWA.  CURRENT MODEL PROGS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG MESOSCALE FRONTOGENESIS FORCING..IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHERE.  THE TWO
LIMITING FACTORS APPEAR TO BE THERMAL PROFILES..WHICH ARE NOT IN THE
IDEAL CRYSTAL GROWTH REGIMES..AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM..WHICH WILL
ACT TO LIMIT THE DURATION.  STILL..IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR 4-5 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS..AND PERHAPS HEAVIER IF STRONG
FGEN EVOLVES AS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM..WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES..AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE SOUTH SHORE. A SECONDARY REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SOMETIME AROUND FRIDAY..WITH SIMILAR EFFECTS ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING AS RELATIVELY
WARM/MOIST NEAR-SURFACE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER SNOW PACK
AND RESIDUAL COLD GROUND. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE..BUT MOSTLY IT HAS BEEN A FOG AND LOW
CEILING/VSBY EVENT. THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO HAVE
TEMPORARILY ENDED AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL TAF SITES.

LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY..AND WE HAVE TIMED THE
RAISING OF CEILINGS/VSBYS TO GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A
SWITCH TO WEST WINDS. THERE WILL BE A 4-7 HOUR TRANSITION TIME
WHERE MIXED PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY FZDZ AND -SN/ LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING..BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROMPT A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
LATE EVENING AT ALL THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE..ESPECIALLY DURING THE LAST 6
HOURS OF THIS TAF WINDOW. KHYR WILL BE THE LAST TO SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW..BUT SHOULD ALSO SEE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST SUSTAINED SNOW
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SIG LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING NNEWD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  24  26   8 /  30  70  70  30
INL  38  18  18   2 /  20  50  60  10
BRD  40  19  21   7 /  20  50  50  10
HYR  48  28  29   8 /  50  80  80  50
ASX  47  30  31  13 /  50  90 100  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ018>021-025-026-
     033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WIZ003-004.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ121-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR
     LSZ141>147.

     GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     LSZ140.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 231134 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
534 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM...SPECIFICALLY
IN REGARDS TO SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE 00Z MODEL SUITE FEATURED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS THERE WERE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...THEN THE NAM/GEM WHICH WERE SLOWER WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SUGGESTED HIGHER SNOWFALL OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN CWA INCLUDING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE USED A BLEND AS WE
COULD NOT DISCOUNT THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 06Z
NAM DOES SHOW THE LOW MOVING THROUGH A BIT FASTER.

A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND NORTHERN STREAM WAVES
SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER IN THE 4 CORNERS AREA WILL
ALL COMBINE TO CAUSE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO REFORM OVER/NEAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...THEN TRACKING THE LOW
NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER THIRTIES FOR MOST AREAS AS OF 09Z. THERE MAY BE SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON SOME ROADS THOUGH AS THOSE TEMPS MAY BE AT/BELOW
FREEZING.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE TODAY...AND
SOUNDINGS/WET BULB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST PRECIP TYPE WILL
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. WE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
FOR MOST AREAS AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN QUESTION MONDAY...WITH THE
NAM/GEM SUGGESTING MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WE HAD GOING. WE DID
INCREASE SNOWFALL...BUT DID NOT BUY INTO THE HIGH END AMOUNTS. THE
SREF PLUMES DEMONSTRATE THIS PROBLEM WITH THE 03Z RUN SHOWING
SNOWFALL SPREADS FROM NO ACCUM TO A COUPLE MEMBERS OVER 15INCHES
AT KDLH.

WE EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND MONDAY...AND
HAVE SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTIONED. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON THIS SHIFT...BUT THE AREA
ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO THE TWIN PORTS...INCLUDING ALL OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA MAY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WARRANT AN ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE
WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF MODELS AND LET THE NEXT CREW ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW FROM THE LOW WILL OCCUR
MONDAY...THEN THE LAKE WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDED SNOWFALL MONDAY
NIGHT. A GOOD FETCH WILL EXIST WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND
-12C CREATING FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PEAK EARLY...THEN DROP THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUED THIS MORNING AND WE WILL EXTEND THE
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON AND INCLUDED THE NORTH SHORE ZONES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY..BUT
AS 925/850 THERMAL TROF TRANSLATES EAST OF THE WRN GRT LAKES AND
WINDS BACK TO MORE WESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED AS GRADIENT
RELAXES..HEAT FLUX OFF THE LAKE SHOULD WANE FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SIG ACCUMULATION OVER BAYFIELD/IRON/
ASHLAND COUNTIES AFTER TUESDAY MORNING APPEARS RATHER SMALL.

MAIN ITEM OF ATTENTION THEN BECOMES WHAT INCREASINGLY LOOKS LIKE A
RATHER POTENT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NITE/WEDNESDAY. MOST
OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS A VERY STRONG VORT MAX FROM N
DAKOTA TUE NITE TO S CENT WI BY WED EVENING..AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG I94. IF CURRENTLY FORECASTED MODEL
MASS FIELDS ARE IN THE BALL PARK..A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF EXTREMELY
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN DULUTH CWA.  CURRENT MODEL PROGS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG MESOSCALE FRONTOGENESIS FORCING..IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHERE.  THE TWO
LIMITING FACTORS APPEAR TO BE THERMAL PROFILES..WHICH ARE NOT IN THE
IDEAL CRYSTAL GROWTH REGIMES..AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM..WHICH WILL
ACT TO LIMIT THE DURATION.  STILL..IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR 4-5 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS..AND PERHAPS HEAVIER IF STRONG
FGEN EVOLVES AS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM..WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES..AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE SOUTH SHORE. A SECONDARY REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SOMETIME AROUND FRIDAY..WITH SIMILAR EFFECTS ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING AS RELATIVELY
WARM/MOIST NEAR-SURFACE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER SNOW PACK
AND RESIDUAL COLD GROUND. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE..BUT MOSTLY IT HAS BEEN A FOG AND LOW
CEILING/VSBY EVENT. THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO HAVE
TEMPORARILY ENDED AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL TAF SITES.

LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY..AND WE HAVE TIMED THE
RAISING OF CEILINGS/VSBYS TO GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A
SWITCH TO WEST WINDS. THERE WILL BE A 4-7 HOUR TRANSITION TIME
WHERE MIXED PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY FZDZ AND -SN/ LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING..BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROMPT A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
LATE EVENING AT ALL THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE..ESPECIALLY DURING THE LAST 6
HOURS OF THIS TAF WINDOW. KHYR WILL BE THE LAST TO SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW..BUT SHOULD ALSO SEE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST SUSTAINED SNOW
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SIG LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING NNEWD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  24  26   8 /  30  70  70  30
INL  38  18  18   2 /  20  50  60  10
BRD  38  19  21   7 /  20  50  50  10
HYR  43  28  29   8 /  50  80  80  50
ASX  45  30  31  13 /  50  90 100  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ020-021-025-
     033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WIZ003-004.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KDLH 231134 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
534 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM...SPECIFICALLY
IN REGARDS TO SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE 00Z MODEL SUITE FEATURED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS THERE WERE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...THEN THE NAM/GEM WHICH WERE SLOWER WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SUGGESTED HIGHER SNOWFALL OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN CWA INCLUDING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE USED A BLEND AS WE
COULD NOT DISCOUNT THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 06Z
NAM DOES SHOW THE LOW MOVING THROUGH A BIT FASTER.

A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND NORTHERN STREAM WAVES
SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER IN THE 4 CORNERS AREA WILL
ALL COMBINE TO CAUSE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO REFORM OVER/NEAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...THEN TRACKING THE LOW
NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER THIRTIES FOR MOST AREAS AS OF 09Z. THERE MAY BE SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON SOME ROADS THOUGH AS THOSE TEMPS MAY BE AT/BELOW
FREEZING.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE TODAY...AND
SOUNDINGS/WET BULB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST PRECIP TYPE WILL
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. WE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
FOR MOST AREAS AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN QUESTION MONDAY...WITH THE
NAM/GEM SUGGESTING MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WE HAD GOING. WE DID
INCREASE SNOWFALL...BUT DID NOT BUY INTO THE HIGH END AMOUNTS. THE
SREF PLUMES DEMONSTRATE THIS PROBLEM WITH THE 03Z RUN SHOWING
SNOWFALL SPREADS FROM NO ACCUM TO A COUPLE MEMBERS OVER 15INCHES
AT KDLH.

WE EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND MONDAY...AND
HAVE SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTIONED. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON THIS SHIFT...BUT THE AREA
ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO THE TWIN PORTS...INCLUDING ALL OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA MAY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WARRANT AN ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE
WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF MODELS AND LET THE NEXT CREW ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW FROM THE LOW WILL OCCUR
MONDAY...THEN THE LAKE WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDED SNOWFALL MONDAY
NIGHT. A GOOD FETCH WILL EXIST WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND
-12C CREATING FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PEAK EARLY...THEN DROP THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUED THIS MORNING AND WE WILL EXTEND THE
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON AND INCLUDED THE NORTH SHORE ZONES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY..BUT
AS 925/850 THERMAL TROF TRANSLATES EAST OF THE WRN GRT LAKES AND
WINDS BACK TO MORE WESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED AS GRADIENT
RELAXES..HEAT FLUX OFF THE LAKE SHOULD WANE FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SIG ACCUMULATION OVER BAYFIELD/IRON/
ASHLAND COUNTIES AFTER TUESDAY MORNING APPEARS RATHER SMALL.

MAIN ITEM OF ATTENTION THEN BECOMES WHAT INCREASINGLY LOOKS LIKE A
RATHER POTENT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NITE/WEDNESDAY. MOST
OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS A VERY STRONG VORT MAX FROM N
DAKOTA TUE NITE TO S CENT WI BY WED EVENING..AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG I94. IF CURRENTLY FORECASTED MODEL
MASS FIELDS ARE IN THE BALL PARK..A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF EXTREMELY
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN DULUTH CWA.  CURRENT MODEL PROGS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG MESOSCALE FRONTOGENESIS FORCING..IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHERE.  THE TWO
LIMITING FACTORS APPEAR TO BE THERMAL PROFILES..WHICH ARE NOT IN THE
IDEAL CRYSTAL GROWTH REGIMES..AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM..WHICH WILL
ACT TO LIMIT THE DURATION.  STILL..IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR 4-5 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS..AND PERHAPS HEAVIER IF STRONG
FGEN EVOLVES AS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM..WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES..AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE SOUTH SHORE. A SECONDARY REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SOMETIME AROUND FRIDAY..WITH SIMILAR EFFECTS ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 534 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS PERSIST EARLY THIS MORNING AS RELATIVELY
WARM/MOIST NEAR-SURFACE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT OVER SNOW PACK
AND RESIDUAL COLD GROUND. THERE HAVE BEEN A FEW VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS AND DRIZZLE..BUT MOSTLY IT HAS BEEN A FOG AND LOW
CEILING/VSBY EVENT. THE THREAT OF FREEZING DRIZZLE APPEARS TO HAVE
TEMPORARILY ENDED AS TEMPS HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL TAF SITES.

LOW LEVEL TROF AXIS WILL MOVE EAST TODAY..AND WE HAVE TIMED THE
RAISING OF CEILINGS/VSBYS TO GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS WITH A
SWITCH TO WEST WINDS. THERE WILL BE A 4-7 HOUR TRANSITION TIME
WHERE MIXED PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE /PRIMARILY FZDZ AND -SN/ LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING..BUT SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL
COLD ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO PROMPT A CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW BY
LATE EVENING AT ALL THE MINNESOTA TAF SITES AS WINDS CONTINUE TO
VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND INCREASE..ESPECIALLY DURING THE LAST 6
HOURS OF THIS TAF WINDOW. KHYR WILL BE THE LAST TO SWITCH OVER TO
SNOW..BUT SHOULD ALSO SEE THE HEAVIEST AND MOST SUSTAINED SNOW
TOWARD THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO SIG LOW
PRESSURE LIFTING NNEWD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN TONIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  24  26   8 /  30  70  70  30
INL  38  18  18   2 /  20  50  60  10
BRD  38  19  21   7 /  20  50  50  10
HYR  43  28  29   8 /  50  80  80  50
ASX  45  30  31  13 /  50  90 100  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ020-021-025-
     033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WIZ003-004.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$








000
FXUS63 KDLH 230925
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
325 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

THERE REMAINS PLENTY OF CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM...SPECIFICALLY
IN REGARDS TO SNOW AMOUNTS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.

THE 00Z MODEL SUITE FEATURED GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS THERE WERE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT...THEN THE NAM/GEM WHICH WERE SLOWER WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND SUGGESTED HIGHER SNOWFALL OVER OUR FAR
EASTERN CWA INCLUDING NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. WE USED A BLEND AS WE
COULD NOT DISCOUNT THE SLOWER SOLUTIONS. A QUICK LOOK AT THE 06Z
NAM DOES SHOW THE LOW MOVING THROUGH A BIT FASTER.

A SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE MOVING THROUGH TEXAS AND NORTHERN STREAM WAVES
SEEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER IN THE 4 CORNERS AREA WILL
ALL COMBINE TO CAUSE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO REFORM OVER/NEAR
SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN THIS EVENING...THEN TRACKING THE LOW
NORTHEAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR LIGHT
RAIN/DRIZZLE OVER MAINLY EASTERN AREAS TODAY...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OVER OUR SOUTHEAST ZONES. CURRENT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID TO UPPER THIRTIES FOR MOST AREAS AS OF 09Z. THERE MAY BE SOME
SLICK SPOTS ON SOME ROADS THOUGH AS THOSE TEMPS MAY BE AT/BELOW
FREEZING.

COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN AREAS LATE TODAY...AND
SOUNDINGS/WET BULB TEMPERATURES SUGGEST PRECIP TYPE WILL
PROGRESSIVELY BECOME ALL SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY
EXPECTED. WE INCREASED CHANCES FOR SNOW LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
FOR MOST AREAS AS MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN ON INCREASING NORTHWEST
WINDS. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE STILL IN QUESTION MONDAY...WITH THE
NAM/GEM SUGGESTING MUCH HIGHER AMOUNTS THAN WE HAD GOING. WE DID
INCREASE SNOWFALL...BUT DID NOT BUY INTO THE HIGH END AMOUNTS. THE
SREF PLUMES DEMONSTRATE THIS PROBLEM WITH THE 03Z RUN SHOWING
SNOWFALL SPREADS FROM NO ACCUM TO A COUPLE MEMBERS OVER 15INCHES
AT KDLH.

WE EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND MONDAY...AND
HAVE SOME BLOWING SNOW MENTIONED. WE ARE NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO
ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR SNOW/BLOWING SNOW ON THIS SHIFT...BUT THE AREA
ALONG INTERSTATE 35 TO THE TWIN PORTS...INCLUDING ALL OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA MAY SEE
CONDITIONS THAT WARRANT AN ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. WE
WILL WAIT FOR ANOTHER SET OF MODELS AND LET THE NEXT CREW ADJUST
AS NEEDED.

WE ARE CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ISSUE A WATCH FOR ASHLAND/IRON COUNTIES
FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW FROM THE LOW WILL OCCUR
MONDAY...THEN THE LAKE WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDED SNOWFALL MONDAY
NIGHT. A GOOD FETCH WILL EXIST WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING TO AROUND
-12C CREATING FAVORABLE INSTABILITY.

TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL PEAK EARLY...THEN DROP THROUGH THE DAY
AS THE COLD AIR POURS IN.

AREAS OF DENSE FOG CONTINUED THIS MORNING AND WE WILL EXTEND THE
ADVISORY THROUGH NOON AND INCLUDED THE NORTH SHORE ZONES AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR SHOULD
BE WINDING DOWN AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD TUESDAY
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TUESDAY..BUT
AS 925/850 THERMAL TROF TRANSLATES EAST OF THE WRN GRT LAKES AND
WINDS BACK TO MORE WESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED AS GRADIENT
RELAXES..HEAT FLUX OFF THE LAKE SHOULD WANE FAIRLY RAPIDLY. THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL SIG ACCUMULATION OVER BAYFIELD/IRON/
ASHLAND COUNTIES AFTER TUESDAY MORNING APPEARS RATHER SMALL.

MAIN ITEM OF ATTENTION THEN BECOMES WHAT INCREASINGLY LOOKS LIKE A
RATHER POTENT CLIPPER-TYPE SYSTEM FOR TUESDAY NITE/WEDNESDAY. MOST
OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS A VERY STRONG VORT MAX FROM N
DAKOTA TUE NITE TO S CENT WI BY WED EVENING..AND THE ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TRACK ROUGHLY ALONG I94. IF CURRENTLY FORECASTED MODEL
MASS FIELDS ARE IN THE BALL PARK..A 6-9 HOUR PERIOD OF EXTREMELY
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN DULUTH CWA.  CURRENT MODEL PROGS ALSO SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG MESOSCALE FRONTOGENESIS FORCING..IMPLYING THE POTENTIAL
FOR A NARROW BAND OF ENHANCED ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHERE.  THE TWO
LIMITING FACTORS APPEAR TO BE THERMAL PROFILES..WHICH ARE NOT IN THE
IDEAL CRYSTAL GROWTH REGIMES..AND THE SPEED OF THE SYSTEM..WHICH WILL
ACT TO LIMIT THE DURATION.  STILL..IT APPEARS THAT THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR 4-5 INCH PLUS AMOUNTS..AND PERHAPS HEAVIER IF STRONG
FGEN EVOLVES AS CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY THE MODELS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL THEN SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION AGAIN IN THE
WAKE OF THE CLIPPER SYSTEM..WITH SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS/FLURRIES..AND THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE LAKE EFFECT
ACCUMULATIONS ON THE SOUTH SHORE. A SECONDARY REINFORCING SHOT OF
COLD AIR IS EXPECTED SOMETIME AROUND FRIDAY..WITH SIMILAR EFFECTS ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASING DEW POINTS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOWEST
CEILINGS...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS...WILL BE
FOUND AT KBRD/KDLH/KHYR...WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
THE NORTH AT KHIB AND KINL. CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS IN MN AS A WEDGE OF
DRY AIR LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BRING A SHIFT TO
GUSTY NW WINDS...LOWERING CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE BORDERLAND/IRON
RANGE AREAS WHERE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR. FURTHER SOUTH...LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PROFILES QUICKLY
BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED AND SUPPORT ALL SNOW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  41  24  26   8 /  30  70  70  30
INL  38  18  18   2 /  20  50  60  10
BRD  38  19  21   7 /  20  50  50  10
HYR  43  28  29   8 /  50  80  80  50
ASX  45  30  31  13 /  50  90 100  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ020-021-025-
     033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR WIZ003-004.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...MILLER
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 230534
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1134 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WILL BE EXPANDING DENSE FOG ADVISORY NORTH TO GENERALLY THE US HWY
2 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING WALKER...AITKIN...THE TWIN PORTS...AND ALL
OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

CURRENT SFC TEMPERATURE ARE AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...DIMINISHING THE THREAT FOR ANY FZDZ/FZRA
OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOARDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHERE THERE
MAY STILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW TO SUPPORT LIGHT FZDZ...MAINLY BEFORE
1000 AM. NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

A DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CLEARING
OUT ANY RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING FOG. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREAS SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S. THE BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER
AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING. AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FOR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT IN THE
EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 450 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PRICE COUNTY IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOWMELT TO INCREASE MOISTURE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED AIR MASS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR WEST THE DENSE FOG WILL SPREAD...AND THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO COVER MORE AREA AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 450 PM CST
SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL BE ABSORBED BY A
STRONG AND DEEPENING LOW IN THE MIDWEST AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
LOW...AND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PCPN WILL FALL. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GEM AND GFS
SHIFTED WEST AND INDICATE THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT PCPN AND SNOWFALL...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF WAS CONSISTENT
TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LEANED ON A BLEND. IF FUTURE MODELS TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE GFS AND GEM...THEN MIGHT NEED TO CONSIDER SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA AND THE
ISSUANCE OF HEADLINES.

THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND SNOW OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND AS COLD AIR RUSHES OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. THE SNOWBELT
REGION IN NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY MUCH MORE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE STILL INDICATING A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...SO LEANED ON A BLEND FOR PCPN
CHANCES. THIS CLIPPER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH...COULD
BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.

COLDER WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASING DEW POINTS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOWEST
CEILINGS...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS...WILL BE
FOUND AT KBRD/KDLH/KHYR...WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
THE NORTH AT KHIB AND KINL. CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS IN MN AS A WEDGE OF
DRY AIR LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BRING A SHIFT TO
GUSTY NW WINDS...LOWERING CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE BORDERLAND/IRON
RANGE AREAS WHERE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR. FURTHER SOUTH...LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PROFILES QUICKLY
BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED AND SUPPORT ALL SNOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  39  24  24 /  30  30  40  60
INL  30  36  17  19 /  10  20  60  50
BRD  31  39  19  21 /  20  20  30  40
HYR  33  42  28  28 /  40  50  70  70
ASX  34  43  30  30 /  40  40  70  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ025-033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 230534
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1134 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WILL BE EXPANDING DENSE FOG ADVISORY NORTH TO GENERALLY THE US HWY
2 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING WALKER...AITKIN...THE TWIN PORTS...AND ALL
OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

CURRENT SFC TEMPERATURE ARE AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...DIMINISHING THE THREAT FOR ANY FZDZ/FZRA
OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOARDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHERE THERE
MAY STILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW TO SUPPORT LIGHT FZDZ...MAINLY BEFORE
1000 AM. NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

A DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CLEARING
OUT ANY RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING FOG. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREAS SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S. THE BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER
AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING. AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FOR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT IN THE
EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 450 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PRICE COUNTY IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOWMELT TO INCREASE MOISTURE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED AIR MASS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR WEST THE DENSE FOG WILL SPREAD...AND THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO COVER MORE AREA AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY) ISSUED AT 450 PM CST
SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL BE ABSORBED BY A
STRONG AND DEEPENING LOW IN THE MIDWEST AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
LOW...AND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PCPN WILL FALL. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GEM AND GFS
SHIFTED WEST AND INDICATE THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT PCPN AND SNOWFALL...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF WAS CONSISTENT
TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LEANED ON A BLEND. IF FUTURE MODELS TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE GFS AND GEM...THEN MIGHT NEED TO CONSIDER SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA AND THE
ISSUANCE OF HEADLINES.

THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND SNOW OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND AS COLD AIR RUSHES OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. THE SNOWBELT
REGION IN NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY MUCH MORE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE STILL INDICATING A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...SO LEANED ON A BLEND FOR PCPN
CHANCES. THIS CLIPPER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH...COULD
BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.

COLDER WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1124 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING INCREASING DEW POINTS AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE LOWEST
CEILINGS...WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND VLIFR CONDITIONS...WILL BE
FOUND AT KBRD/KDLH/KHYR...WITH SLIGHTLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO
THE NORTH AT KHIB AND KINL. CEILINGS AND VSBYS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
TO MVFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR LOCATIONS IN MN AS A WEDGE OF
DRY AIR LIFTS INTO THE REGION. THE IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED
HOWEVER...AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT SWEEPS OVER THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE EVENING. THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE WILL BRING A SHIFT TO
GUSTY NW WINDS...LOWERING CEILINGS AND SNOW SHOWERS. THE SNOW MAY
MIX WITH FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE BORDERLAND/IRON
RANGE AREAS WHERE NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A LAYER OF MID-LEVEL DRY
AIR. FURTHER SOUTH...LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST PROFILES QUICKLY
BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED AND SUPPORT ALL SNOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  39  24  24 /  30  30  40  60
INL  30  36  17  19 /  10  20  60  50
BRD  31  39  19  21 /  20  20  30  40
HYR  33  42  28  28 /  40  50  70  70
ASX  34  43  30  30 /  40  40  70  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ025-033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 230210
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
810 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WILL BE EXPANDING DENSE FOG ADVISORY NORTH TO GENERALLY THE US HWY
2 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING WALKER...AITKIN...THE TWIN PORTS...AND ALL
OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

CURRENT SFC TEMPERATURE ARE AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...DIMINISHING THE THREAT FOR ANY FZDZ/FZRA
OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOARDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHERE THERE
MAY STILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW TO SUPPORT LIGHT FZDZ...MAINLY BEFORE
1000 AM. NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

A DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CLEARING
OUT ANY RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING FOG. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREAS SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S. THE BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER
AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING. AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FOR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT IN THE
EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 450 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PRICE COUNTY IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOWMELT TO INCREASE MOISTURE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED AIR MASS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR WEST THE DENSE FOG WILL SPREAD...AND THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO COVER MORE AREA AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL BE ABSORBED BY A
STRONG AND DEEPENING LOW IN THE MIDWEST AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
LOW...AND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PCPN WILL FALL. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GEM AND GFS
SHIFTED WEST AND INDICATE THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT PCPN AND SNOWFALL...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF WAS CONSISTENT
TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LEANED ON A BLEND. IF FUTURE MODELS TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE GFS AND GEM...THEN MIGHT NEED TO CONSIDER SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA AND THE
ISSUANCE OF HEADLINES.

THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND SNOW OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND AS COLD AIR RUSHES OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. THE SNOWBELT
REGION IN NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY MUCH MORE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE STILL INDICATING A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...SO LEANED ON A BLEND FOR PCPN
CHANCES. THIS CLIPPER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH...COULD
BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.

COLDER WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THERE WERE LARGE AREAS OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN UNDER OVC
LIFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING
THE KHYR/KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. THE KBRD AREA HAD CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS.

THE OVC LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD THEN BE A NORTHWARD SURGE OF
MOISTURE FROM EXTENSIVE LOW OVC CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WILL BRING THE IFR CONDITIONS
TO KBRD BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE DETERIORATION
IN VSBY AND CIG TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH -DZ AND -FZDZ DEVELOPING DUE TO THE INCREASING
SATURATION ALOFT. THE KHYR AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONCERNS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
DUE TO SSW WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ALOFT.

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE POCKETS OF LINGERING LIFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  39  24  24 /  30  30  40  60
INL  30  36  17  19 /  10  20  60  50
BRD  33  39  19  21 /  30  30  30  40
HYR  33  42  28  28 /  50  50  70  70
ASX  34  43  30  30 /  40  40  70  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 230210
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
810 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 745 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

WILL BE EXPANDING DENSE FOG ADVISORY NORTH TO GENERALLY THE US HWY
2 CORRIDOR...INCLUDING WALKER...AITKIN...THE TWIN PORTS...AND ALL
OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

CURRENT SFC TEMPERATURE ARE AROUND OR ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE FORECAST AREA...DIMINISHING THE THREAT FOR ANY FZDZ/FZRA
OVERNIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BOARDER LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHERE THERE
MAY STILL BE A BRIEF WINDOW TO SUPPORT LIGHT FZDZ...MAINLY BEFORE
1000 AM. NO ICE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

A DRY SLOT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHEAST MN SUNDAY AFTERNOON...CLEARING
OUT ANY RAIN SHOWERS AND LINGERING FOG. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREAS SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE
40S. THE BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SHORT-LIVED HOWEVER
AS A CANADIAN COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE
EVENING. AS THE FRONT ARRIVES...THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR FOR
LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE TO ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT IN THE
EVENING...BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW.

GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE HIGHER AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW ARE
ANTICIPATED THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 450 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PRICE COUNTY IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOWMELT TO INCREASE MOISTURE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED AIR MASS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR WEST THE DENSE FOG WILL SPREAD...AND THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO COVER MORE AREA AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL BE ABSORBED BY A
STRONG AND DEEPENING LOW IN THE MIDWEST AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
LOW...AND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PCPN WILL FALL. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GEM AND GFS
SHIFTED WEST AND INDICATE THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT PCPN AND SNOWFALL...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF WAS CONSISTENT
TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LEANED ON A BLEND. IF FUTURE MODELS TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE GFS AND GEM...THEN MIGHT NEED TO CONSIDER SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA AND THE
ISSUANCE OF HEADLINES.

THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND SNOW OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND AS COLD AIR RUSHES OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. THE SNOWBELT
REGION IN NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY MUCH MORE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE STILL INDICATING A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...SO LEANED ON A BLEND FOR PCPN
CHANCES. THIS CLIPPER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH...COULD
BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.

COLDER WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THERE WERE LARGE AREAS OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN UNDER OVC
LIFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING
THE KHYR/KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. THE KBRD AREA HAD CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS.

THE OVC LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD THEN BE A NORTHWARD SURGE OF
MOISTURE FROM EXTENSIVE LOW OVC CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WILL BRING THE IFR CONDITIONS
TO KBRD BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE DETERIORATION
IN VSBY AND CIG TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH -DZ AND -FZDZ DEVELOPING DUE TO THE INCREASING
SATURATION ALOFT. THE KHYR AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONCERNS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
DUE TO SSW WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ALOFT.

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE POCKETS OF LINGERING LIFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  39  24  24 /  30  30  40  60
INL  30  36  17  19 /  10  20  60  50
BRD  33  39  19  21 /  30  30  30  40
HYR  33  42  28  28 /  50  50  70  70
ASX  34  43  30  30 /  40  40  70  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 222255
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
455 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 450 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PRICE COUNTY IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOWMELT TO INCREASE MOISTURE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED AIR MASS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR WEST THE DENSE FOG WILL SPREAD...AND THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO COVER MORE AREA AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL BE ABSORBED BY A
STRONG AND DEEPENING LOW IN THE MIDWEST AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
LOW...AND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PCPN WILL FALL. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GEM AND GFS
SHIFTED WEST AND INDICATE THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT PCPN AND SNOWFALL...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF WAS CONSISTENT
TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LEANED ON A BLEND. IF FUTURE MODELS TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE GFS AND GEM...THEN MIGHT NEED TO CONSIDER SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA AND THE
ISSUANCE OF HEADLINES.

THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND SNOW OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND AS COLD AIR RUSHES OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. THE SNOWBELT
REGION IN NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY MUCH MORE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE STILL INDICATING A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...SO LEANED ON A BLEND FOR PCPN
CHANCES. THIS CLIPPER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH...COULD
BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.

COLDER WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THERE WERE LARGE AREAS OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN UNDER OVC
LIFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING
THE KHYR/KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. THE KBRD AREA HAD CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS.

THE OVC LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD THEN BE A NORTHWARD SURGE OF
MOISTURE FROM EXTENSIVE LOW OVC CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WILL BRING THE IFR CONDITIONS
TO KBRD BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE DETERIORATION
IN VSBY AND CIG TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH -DZ AND -FZDZ DEVELOPING DUE TO THE INCREASING
SATURATION ALOFT. THE KHYR AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONCERNS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
DUE TO SSW WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ALOFT.

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE POCKETS OF LINGERING LIFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  39  24  24 /  30  40  60  60
INL  25  36  17  19 /  30  40  60  50
BRD  28  38  19  21 /  20  30  40  40
HYR  32  43  28  28 /  50  50  70  70
ASX  31  43  30  30 /  40  50  70  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 222255
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
455 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 450 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

HAVE ISSUED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR PRICE COUNTY IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE ABOVE-FREEZING TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR
SNOWMELT TO INCREASE MOISTURE TO THE ALREADY SATURATED AIR MASS.
SOME UNCERTAINTY HOW FAR WEST THE DENSE FOG WILL SPREAD...AND THE
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO COVER MORE AREA AS THE EVENING
WEARS ON.

&&

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 450 PM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

AN ALBERTA CLIPPER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL BE ABSORBED BY A
STRONG AND DEEPENING LOW IN THE MIDWEST AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS
LOW...AND THERE IS UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAR WEST THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT PCPN WILL FALL. THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GEM AND GFS
SHIFTED WEST AND INDICATE THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA COULD GET
SIGNIFICANT PCPN AND SNOWFALL...BUT THE LATEST ECMWF WAS CONSISTENT
TO ITS PREVIOUS RUN AND KEEPS MOST OF THE PCPN EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA. LEANED ON A BLEND. IF FUTURE MODELS TREND IN THE DIRECTION OF
THE GFS AND GEM...THEN MIGHT NEED TO CONSIDER SUBSTANTIALLY
INCREASING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA AND THE
ISSUANCE OF HEADLINES.

THERE WILL BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN/FREEZING RAIN OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY EVENING AND SNOW OVER THE WESTERN FORECAST
AREA...TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW AND AS COLD AIR RUSHES OUT OF
CANADA INTO NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THE SYNOPTIC SNOW
MONDAY WILL TRANSITION TO JUST LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS OVER NW
WISCONSIN MONDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO QUEBEC. THE SNOWBELT
REGION IN NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE UP TO SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY MUCH MORE.

THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE STILL INDICATING A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE MODELS ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT...SO LEANED ON A BLEND FOR PCPN
CHANCES. THIS CLIPPER...DEPENDING ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH...COULD
BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOW TO PARTS OF THE NORTHLAND.

COLDER WEATHER IS LIKELY FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS
DROPPING TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND LOWER TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THERE WERE LARGE AREAS OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN UNDER OVC
LIFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING
THE KHYR/KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. THE KBRD AREA HAD CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS.

THE OVC LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD THEN BE A NORTHWARD SURGE OF
MOISTURE FROM EXTENSIVE LOW OVC CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WILL BRING THE IFR CONDITIONS
TO KBRD BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE DETERIORATION
IN VSBY AND CIG TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH -DZ AND -FZDZ DEVELOPING DUE TO THE INCREASING
SATURATION ALOFT. THE KHYR AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONCERNS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
DUE TO SSW WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ALOFT.

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE POCKETS OF LINGERING LIFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  39  24  24 /  30  40  60  60
INL  25  36  17  19 /  30  40  60  50
BRD  28  38  19  21 /  20  30  40  40
HYR  32  43  28  28 /  50  50  70  70
ASX  31  43  30  30 /  40  50  70  90

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST SUNDAY FOR WIZ009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 221738 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MADE SMALL CHANGES TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED
FOG UP NORTH SHORE BASED ON OBS AND WEB CAMS. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A CHALLENGING FORECAST EXISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER FAR
NORTHWEST MEXICO HEADED FOR TEXAS. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WAS
ALSO JUST COMING ONSHORE INTO BC/NORTHWEST CONUS. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WAA THIS MORNING MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS PINE
COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER DRY AND
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH EARLY THIS MORNING. WE
EXPECT THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE THIRTIES.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHLAND. BETTER
LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT SO WE DID NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR ICE AS WE
EXPECT THE ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL ALSO EXIST.

THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO DEEPEN
SUNDAY AS IT REFORMS AND DEEPENS EVEN MORE SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF
THE NORTHLAND. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE SUNDAY WITH COLDER
AIR STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WE WEND WITH A SLEET/SNOW MIX OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND MAINLY
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LIMITING ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THROUGH THE PERIOD WE ARE WATCHING THE PHASING OF THE NORTH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND THE RESULTANT LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON SATURDAY THE RETREATING SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW OF
VERY WARM AIR WITH 8H TEMPS TEMP FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO A
STRONG S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SECTIONS....THE ARROWHEAD AND
WI...BUT...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW ZERO WHICH WILL RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.  BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEFINITE ICE IN THE COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA FROM ABOUT
WALKER TO INL...WHERE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN SNOW OVR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST...AND VERY COLD
AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW...AND WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
THE RAIN INTO SNOW.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDED EAST WITH THE SFC
LOW...THE GFS MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE EURO.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
STILL BEAR WATCHING.

MUCH COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS...MEANING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE WILL KICK IN AND
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THERE WERE LARGE AREAS OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN UNDER OVC
LIFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING
THE KHYR/KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. THE KBRD AREA HAD CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS.

THE OVC LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD THEN BE A NORTHWARD SURGE OF
MOISTURE FROM EXTENSIVE LOW OVC CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WILL BRING THE IFR CONDITIONS
TO KBRD BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE DETERIORATION
IN VSBY AND CIG TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH -DZ AND -FZDZ DEVELOPING DUE TO THE INCREASING
SATURATION ALOFT. THE KHYR AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONCERNS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
DUE TO SSW WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ALOFT.

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE POCKETS OF LINGERING LIFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  29  39  25 /  10  40  40  30
INL  35  25  36  18 /  10  30  30  50
BRD  36  28  38  20 /  10  20  30  30
HYR  37  32  43  29 /  10  50  50  40
ASX  38  31  43  29 /  10  50  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
     141-146-147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 221738 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 954 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MADE SMALL CHANGES TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED
FOG UP NORTH SHORE BASED ON OBS AND WEB CAMS. REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A CHALLENGING FORECAST EXISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER FAR
NORTHWEST MEXICO HEADED FOR TEXAS. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WAS
ALSO JUST COMING ONSHORE INTO BC/NORTHWEST CONUS. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WAA THIS MORNING MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS PINE
COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER DRY AND
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH EARLY THIS MORNING. WE
EXPECT THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE THIRTIES.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHLAND. BETTER
LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT SO WE DID NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR ICE AS WE
EXPECT THE ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL ALSO EXIST.

THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO DEEPEN
SUNDAY AS IT REFORMS AND DEEPENS EVEN MORE SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF
THE NORTHLAND. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE SUNDAY WITH COLDER
AIR STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WE WEND WITH A SLEET/SNOW MIX OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND MAINLY
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LIMITING ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THROUGH THE PERIOD WE ARE WATCHING THE PHASING OF THE NORTH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND THE RESULTANT LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON SATURDAY THE RETREATING SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW OF
VERY WARM AIR WITH 8H TEMPS TEMP FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO A
STRONG S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SECTIONS....THE ARROWHEAD AND
WI...BUT...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW ZERO WHICH WILL RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.  BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEFINITE ICE IN THE COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA FROM ABOUT
WALKER TO INL...WHERE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN SNOW OVR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST...AND VERY COLD
AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW...AND WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
THE RAIN INTO SNOW.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDED EAST WITH THE SFC
LOW...THE GFS MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE EURO.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
STILL BEAR WATCHING.

MUCH COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS...MEANING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE WILL KICK IN AND
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1138 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THERE WERE LARGE AREAS OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN UNDER OVC
LIFR/IFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...INCLUDING
THE KHYR/KDLH/KHIB/KINL AREAS. THE KBRD AREA HAD CLEAR SKIES AND
VFR CONDITIONS.

THE OVC LOW CLOUD COVER WILL LIKELY REMAIN STATIONARY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD THEN BE A NORTHWARD SURGE OF
MOISTURE FROM EXTENSIVE LOW OVC CLOUD COVER IN SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN WISCONSIN. THIS WILL BRING THE IFR CONDITIONS
TO KBRD BY EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE DETERIORATION
IN VSBY AND CIG TO LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT WITH -DZ AND -FZDZ DEVELOPING DUE TO THE INCREASING
SATURATION ALOFT. THE KHYR AREA WILL HAVE A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR CONCERNS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
DUE TO SSW WINDS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ALOFT.

WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING. THERE
COULD BE POCKETS OF LINGERING LIFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  29  39  25 /  10  40  40  30
INL  35  25  36  18 /  10  30  30  50
BRD  36  28  38  20 /  10  20  30  30
HYR  37  32  43  29 /  10  50  50  40
ASX  38  31  43  29 /  10  50  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
     141-146-147.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI









000
FXUS63 KDLH 221554
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
954 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MADE SMALL CHANGES TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED
FOG UP NORTH SHORE BASED ON OBS AND WEB CAMS. REST OF FCST UNCHNAGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A CHALLENGING FORECAST EXISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER FAR
NORTHWEST MEXICO HEADED FOR TEXAS. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WAS
ALSO JUST COMING ONSHORE INTO BC/NORTHWEST CONUS. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WAA THIS MORNING MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS PINE
COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER DRY AND
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH EARLY THIS MORNING. WE
EXPECT THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE THIRTIES.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHLAND. BETTER
LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT SO WE DID NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR ICE AS WE
EXPECT THE ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL ALSO EXIST.

THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO DEEPEN
SUNDAY AS IT REFORMS AND DEEPENS EVEN MORE SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF
THE NORTHLAND. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE SUNDAY WITH COLDER
AIR STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WE WEND WITH A SLEET/SNOW MIX OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND MAINLY
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LIMITING ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THROUGH THE PERIOD WE ARE WATCHING THE PHASING OF THE NORTH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND THE RESULTANT LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON SATURDAY THE RETREATING SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW OF
VERY WARM AIR WITH 8H TEMPS TEMP FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO A
STRONG S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SECTIONS....THE ARROWHEAD AND
WI...BUT...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW ZERO WHICH WILL RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.  BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEFINITE ICE IN THE COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA FROM ABOUT
WALKER TO INL...WHERE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN SNOW OVR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST...AND VERY COLD
AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW...AND WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
THE RAIN INTO SNOW.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDED EAST WITH THE SFC
LOW...THE GFS MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE EURO.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
STILL BEAR WATCHING.

MUCH COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS...MEANING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE WILL KICK IN AND
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

|THERE WILL BE MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...EPECIALLY FORM KINL
THORUGH KDLH TO KHYR. BUT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN VFR UNTIL MVFR LOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP AFTER
00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  29  39  25 /  10  40  40  30
INL  35  25  36  18 /  10  30  30  50
BRD  36  28  38  20 /  10  20  30  30
HYR  37  32  43  29 /  10  50  50  40
ASX  38  31  43  29 /  10  50  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
     141-146-147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 221554
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
954 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MADE SMALL CHANGES TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED
FOG UP NORTH SHORE BASED ON OBS AND WEB CAMS. REST OF FCST UNCHNAGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A CHALLENGING FORECAST EXISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER FAR
NORTHWEST MEXICO HEADED FOR TEXAS. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WAS
ALSO JUST COMING ONSHORE INTO BC/NORTHWEST CONUS. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WAA THIS MORNING MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS PINE
COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER DRY AND
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH EARLY THIS MORNING. WE
EXPECT THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE THIRTIES.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHLAND. BETTER
LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT SO WE DID NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR ICE AS WE
EXPECT THE ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL ALSO EXIST.

THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO DEEPEN
SUNDAY AS IT REFORMS AND DEEPENS EVEN MORE SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF
THE NORTHLAND. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE SUNDAY WITH COLDER
AIR STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WE WEND WITH A SLEET/SNOW MIX OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND MAINLY
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LIMITING ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THROUGH THE PERIOD WE ARE WATCHING THE PHASING OF THE NORTH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND THE RESULTANT LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON SATURDAY THE RETREATING SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW OF
VERY WARM AIR WITH 8H TEMPS TEMP FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO A
STRONG S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SECTIONS....THE ARROWHEAD AND
WI...BUT...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW ZERO WHICH WILL RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.  BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEFINITE ICE IN THE COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA FROM ABOUT
WALKER TO INL...WHERE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN SNOW OVR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST...AND VERY COLD
AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW...AND WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
THE RAIN INTO SNOW.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDED EAST WITH THE SFC
LOW...THE GFS MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE EURO.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
STILL BEAR WATCHING.

MUCH COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS...MEANING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE WILL KICK IN AND
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

|THERE WILL BE MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...EPECIALLY FORM KINL
THORUGH KDLH TO KHYR. BUT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN VFR UNTIL MVFR LOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP AFTER
00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  29  39  25 /  10  40  40  30
INL  35  25  36  18 /  10  30  30  50
BRD  36  28  38  20 /  10  20  30  30
HYR  37  32  43  29 /  10  50  50  40
ASX  38  31  43  29 /  10  50  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
     141-146-147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 221554
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
954 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MADE SMALL CHANGES TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED
FOG UP NORTH SHORE BASED ON OBS AND WEB CAMS. REST OF FCST UNCHNAGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A CHALLENGING FORECAST EXISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER FAR
NORTHWEST MEXICO HEADED FOR TEXAS. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WAS
ALSO JUST COMING ONSHORE INTO BC/NORTHWEST CONUS. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WAA THIS MORNING MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS PINE
COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER DRY AND
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH EARLY THIS MORNING. WE
EXPECT THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE THIRTIES.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHLAND. BETTER
LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT SO WE DID NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR ICE AS WE
EXPECT THE ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL ALSO EXIST.

THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO DEEPEN
SUNDAY AS IT REFORMS AND DEEPENS EVEN MORE SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF
THE NORTHLAND. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE SUNDAY WITH COLDER
AIR STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WE WEND WITH A SLEET/SNOW MIX OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND MAINLY
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LIMITING ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THROUGH THE PERIOD WE ARE WATCHING THE PHASING OF THE NORTH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND THE RESULTANT LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON SATURDAY THE RETREATING SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW OF
VERY WARM AIR WITH 8H TEMPS TEMP FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO A
STRONG S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SECTIONS....THE ARROWHEAD AND
WI...BUT...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW ZERO WHICH WILL RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.  BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEFINITE ICE IN THE COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA FROM ABOUT
WALKER TO INL...WHERE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN SNOW OVR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST...AND VERY COLD
AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW...AND WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
THE RAIN INTO SNOW.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDED EAST WITH THE SFC
LOW...THE GFS MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE EURO.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
STILL BEAR WATCHING.

MUCH COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS...MEANING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE WILL KICK IN AND
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

|THERE WILL BE MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...EPECIALLY FORM KINL
THORUGH KDLH TO KHYR. BUT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN VFR UNTIL MVFR LOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP AFTER
00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  29  39  25 /  10  40  40  30
INL  35  25  36  18 /  10  30  30  50
BRD  36  28  38  20 /  10  20  30  30
HYR  37  32  43  29 /  10  50  50  40
ASX  38  31  43  29 /  10  50  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
     141-146-147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 221554
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
954 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 954 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

MADE SMALL CHANGES TO TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. ALSO EXTENDED
FOG UP NORTH SHORE BASED ON OBS AND WEB CAMS. REST OF FCST UNCHNAGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A CHALLENGING FORECAST EXISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER FAR
NORTHWEST MEXICO HEADED FOR TEXAS. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WAS
ALSO JUST COMING ONSHORE INTO BC/NORTHWEST CONUS. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WAA THIS MORNING MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS PINE
COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER DRY AND
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH EARLY THIS MORNING. WE
EXPECT THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE THIRTIES.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHLAND. BETTER
LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT SO WE DID NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR ICE AS WE
EXPECT THE ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL ALSO EXIST.

THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO DEEPEN
SUNDAY AS IT REFORMS AND DEEPENS EVEN MORE SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF
THE NORTHLAND. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE SUNDAY WITH COLDER
AIR STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WE WEND WITH A SLEET/SNOW MIX OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND MAINLY
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LIMITING ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THROUGH THE PERIOD WE ARE WATCHING THE PHASING OF THE NORTH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND THE RESULTANT LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON SATURDAY THE RETREATING SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW OF
VERY WARM AIR WITH 8H TEMPS TEMP FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO A
STRONG S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SECTIONS....THE ARROWHEAD AND
WI...BUT...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW ZERO WHICH WILL RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.  BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEFINITE ICE IN THE COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA FROM ABOUT
WALKER TO INL...WHERE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN SNOW OVR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST...AND VERY COLD
AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW...AND WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
THE RAIN INTO SNOW.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDED EAST WITH THE SFC
LOW...THE GFS MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE EURO.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
STILL BEAR WATCHING.

MUCH COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS...MEANING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE WILL KICK IN AND
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

|THERE WILL BE MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...EPECIALLY FORM KINL
THORUGH KDLH TO KHYR. BUT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN VFR UNTIL MVFR LOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP AFTER
00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  29  39  25 /  10  40  40  30
INL  35  25  36  18 /  10  30  30  50
BRD  36  28  38  20 /  10  20  30  30
HYR  37  32  43  29 /  10  50  50  40
ASX  38  31  43  29 /  10  50  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ140-
     141-146-147.

&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 221149 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
549 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A CHALLENGING FORECAST EXISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER FAR
NORTHWEST MEXICO HEADED FOR TEXAS. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WAS
ALSO JUST COMING ONSHORE INTO BC/NORTHWEST CONUS. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WAA THIS MORNING MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS PINE
COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER DRY AND
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH EARLY THIS MORNING. WE
EXPECT THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE THIRTIES.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHLAND. BETTER
LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT SO WE DID NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR ICE AS WE
EXPECT THE ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL ALSO EXIST.

THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO DEEPEN
SUNDAY AS IT REFORMS AND DEEPENS EVEN MORE SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF
THE NORTHLAND. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE SUNDAY WITH COLDER
AIR STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WE WEND WITH A SLEET/SNOW MIX OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND MAINLY
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LIMITING ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THROUGH THE PERIOD WE ARE WATCHING THE PHASING OF THE NORTH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND THE RESULTANT LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON SATURDAY THE RETREATING SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW OF
VERY WARM AIR WITH 8H TEMPS TEMP FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO A
STRONG S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SECTIONS....THE ARROWHEAD AND
WI...BUT...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW ZERO WHICH WILL RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.  BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEFINITE ICE IN THE COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA FROM ABOUT
WALKER TO INL...WHERE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN SNOW OVR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST...AND VERY COLD
AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW...AND WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
THE RAIN INTO SNOW.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDED EAST WITH THE SFC
LOW...THE GFS MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE EURO.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
STILL BEAR WATCHING.

MUCH COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS...MEANING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE WILL KICK IN AND
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

|THERE WILL BE MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...EPECIALLY FORM KINL
THORUGH KDLH TO KHYR. BUT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN VFR UNTIL MVFR LOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP AFTER
00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  29  39  25 /  10  40  40  30
INL  35  25  36  18 /  10  30  30  50
BRD  36  28  38  20 /  10  20  30  30
HYR  37  32  43  29 /  10  50  50  40
ASX  38  31  43  29 /  10  50  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC







000
FXUS63 KDLH 221149 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
549 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A CHALLENGING FORECAST EXISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER FAR
NORTHWEST MEXICO HEADED FOR TEXAS. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WAS
ALSO JUST COMING ONSHORE INTO BC/NORTHWEST CONUS. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WAA THIS MORNING MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS PINE
COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER DRY AND
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH EARLY THIS MORNING. WE
EXPECT THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE THIRTIES.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHLAND. BETTER
LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT SO WE DID NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR ICE AS WE
EXPECT THE ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL ALSO EXIST.

THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO DEEPEN
SUNDAY AS IT REFORMS AND DEEPENS EVEN MORE SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF
THE NORTHLAND. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE SUNDAY WITH COLDER
AIR STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WE WEND WITH A SLEET/SNOW MIX OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND MAINLY
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LIMITING ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THROUGH THE PERIOD WE ARE WATCHING THE PHASING OF THE NORTH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND THE RESULTANT LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON SATURDAY THE RETREATING SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW OF
VERY WARM AIR WITH 8H TEMPS TEMP FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO A
STRONG S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SECTIONS....THE ARROWHEAD AND
WI...BUT...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW ZERO WHICH WILL RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.  BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEFINITE ICE IN THE COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA FROM ABOUT
WALKER TO INL...WHERE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN SNOW OVR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST...AND VERY COLD
AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW...AND WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
THE RAIN INTO SNOW.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDED EAST WITH THE SFC
LOW...THE GFS MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE EURO.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
STILL BEAR WATCHING.

MUCH COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS...MEANING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE WILL KICK IN AND
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 543 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

|THERE WILL BE MVFR CIGS THIS MORNING...EPECIALLY FORM KINL
THORUGH KDLH TO KHYR. BUT...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR LATER
THIS MORNING AND REMAIN VFR UNTIL MVFR LOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP AFTER
00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  29  39  25 /  10  40  40  30
INL  35  25  36  18 /  10  30  30  50
BRD  36  28  38  20 /  10  20  30  30
HYR  37  32  43  29 /  10  50  50  40
ASX  38  31  43  29 /  10  50  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC








000
FXUS63 KDLH 221038
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
438 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A CHALLENGING FORECAST EXISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER FAR
NORTHWEST MEXICO HEADED FOR TEXAS. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WAS
ALSO JUST COMING ONSHORE INTO BC/NORTHWEST CONUS. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WAA THIS MORNING MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS PINE
COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER DRY AND
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH EARLY THIS MORNING. WE
EXPECT THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE THIRTIES.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHLAND. BETTER
LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT SO WE DID NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR ICE AS WE
EXPECT THE ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL ALSO EXIST.

THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO DEEPEN
SUNDAY AS IT REFORMS AND DEEPENS EVEN MORE SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF
THE NORTHLAND. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE SUNDAY WITH COLDER
AIR STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WE WEND WITH A SLEET/SNOW MIX OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND MAINLY
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LIMITING ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THROUGH THE PERIOD WE ARE WATCHING THE PHASING OF THE NORTH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND THE RESULTANT LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON SATURDAY THE RETREATING SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW OF
VERY WARM AIR WITH 8H TEMPS TEMP FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO A
STRONG S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SECTIONS....THE ARROWHEAD AND
WI...BUT...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW ZERO WHICH WILL RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.  BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEFINITE ICE IN THE COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA FROM ABOUT
WALKER TO INL...WHERE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN SNOW OVR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST...AND VERY COLD
AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW...AND WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
THE RAIN INTO SNOW.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDED EAST WITH THE SFC
LOW...THE GFS MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE EURO.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
STILL BEAR WATCHING.

MUCH COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS...MEANING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE WILL KICK IN AND
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FZDZ POTENTIAL THROUGH SAT MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FZDZ OR -SN TO THE BORDERLAND REGION LATE TONIGHT. FOCUS
TURNS TO THE WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
CRUISING NORTH OVER WISCONSIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  29  39  25 /  10  40  40  30
INL  35  25  36  18 /  10  30  30  50
BRD  36  28  38  20 /  10  20  30  30
HYR  37  32  43  29 /  10  50  50  40
ASX  38  31  43  29 /  10  50  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 221038
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
438 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

A CHALLENGING FORECAST EXISTS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ESPECIALLY
IN REGARDS TO PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE OVER FAR
NORTHWEST MEXICO HEADED FOR TEXAS. A NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WAS
ALSO JUST COMING ONSHORE INTO BC/NORTHWEST CONUS. THESE SYSTEMS
WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

WAA THIS MORNING MAY LEAD TO SOME PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE OVER
PARTS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS PINE
COUNTY IN MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. SOUNDINGS ARE RATHER DRY AND
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS ARE NOT SHOWING MUCH EARLY THIS MORNING. WE
EXPECT THE REST OF THE DAY TO BE DRY. HIGHS WILL RISE INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE THIRTIES.

THE NORTHERN STREAM WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
TONIGHT WITH A SURFACE LOW EXTENDING INTO THE NORTHLAND. BETTER
LIFT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND WE HAVE A CHANCE FOR FREEZING
RAIN/SLEET OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS...WITH MAINLY RAIN OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MOST MODELS AGREE THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIMITED TONIGHT SO WE DID NOT ISSUE ANY ADVISORIES FOR ICE AS WE
EXPECT THE ACCUMULATION TO BE LIGHT. WE HAVE HIGHEST POPS OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WHERE THE WARMEST TEMPS WILL ALSO EXIST.

THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM WAVES WILL CAUSE THE LOW TO DEEPEN
SUNDAY AS IT REFORMS AND DEEPENS EVEN MORE SUNDAY NIGHT EAST OF
THE NORTHLAND. PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A CHALLENGE SUNDAY WITH COLDER
AIR STARTING TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME WE WEND WITH A SLEET/SNOW MIX OVER WESTERN AREAS...AND MAINLY
RAIN OVER MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. THE MODELS ARE IN PRETTY
GOOD AGREEMENT LIMITING ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY...BUT WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR CLOSELY AS WE MAY NEED AN ADVISORY AT SOME
POINT SUNDAY AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY STARTING SUNDAY NIGHT FOR
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND FOR MIXED PRECIPITATION AND SOME SNOW
ACCUMULATION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 437 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

THROUGH THE PERIOD WE ARE WATCHING THE PHASING OF THE NORTH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND THE RESULTANT LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON SATURDAY THE RETREATING SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW OF
VERY WARM AIR WITH 8H TEMPS TEMP FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO A
STRONG S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SECTIONS....THE ARROWHEAD AND
WI...BUT...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW ZERO WHICH WILL RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.  BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEFINITE ICE IN THE COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA FROM ABOUT
WALKER TO INL...WHERE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN SNOW OVR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST...AND VERY COLD
AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW...AND WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
THE RAIN INTO SNOW.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDED EAST WITH THE SFC
LOW...THE GFS MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE EURO.  THIS SYSTEM WILL
STILL BEAR WATCHING.

MUCH COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS...MEANING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE WILL KICK IN AND
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FZDZ POTENTIAL THROUGH SAT MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FZDZ OR -SN TO THE BORDERLAND REGION LATE TONIGHT. FOCUS
TURNS TO THE WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
CRUISING NORTH OVER WISCONSIN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  35  29  39  25 /  10  40  40  30
INL  35  25  36  18 /  10  30  30  50
BRD  36  28  38  20 /  10  20  30  30
HYR  37  32  43  29 /  10  50  50  40
ASX  38  31  43  29 /  10  50  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 220605
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1205 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF FZDZ UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE IT
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE BORDERLAND/IRON RANGE AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW TWO AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS/FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TRACKING EAST INTO
ONTARIO. LATEST NAM/WRF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ FROM THIS WAVE SKIRT ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS TURNS TO THE STRONG WAA WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THAT PUSHES INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
LOW CEILINGS ARE STILL CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN IOWA...CRUISING
NORTH INTO SRN MN. TRIED TO CAPTURE A DECENT TIME-TRACK ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS/DZ...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ARRIVAL TIME
INTO THE WISCONSIN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

COMPLEX PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ALL TYPES OF WINTRY PRECIP
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE FREEZING AND
POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO A
STRONG STORM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. TODAY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR TO THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND THUS GUSTY WINDS. AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS FLOW WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

TODAY...SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY A STRATUS DECK RAPIDLY DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON DUE
TO MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WHILE THE
SUN IS OUT DUE TO A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET AT JUST 2-4 KFT AGL MIXING
DOWN TO CREATE GUSTS NEAR 30KTS AT THE SURFACE. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...RISING TO NEAR 30 AT A FEW LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...STRATUS WILL BE QUICK TO FORM ACROSS THE REGION. NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT...AND SOME LIFT IN LOW LEVELS
COMBINED WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF NORTHERN MN AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE GOOD LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL DEVELOP
DUE TO A FEW SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
FLOW. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ICE
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT ELEVATED
SURFACES COULD ACCUMULATE A LIGHT GLAZE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE THE INVERSION SETS UP...OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND STRATUS DECK...IN THE LOW TO MID
20S OVERNIGHT RISING TO THE UPPER 20S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT WITH DRIZZLE COMING TO AN
END IN THE MORNING HOURS AND TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY WILL MELT ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION...AND DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 30S. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON IF THE STRATUS DECK
WILL STICK AROUND ALL DAY OR IF THERE WILL BE BREAKS...WITH THE NAM
AGAIN AGGRESSIVE ABOUT KEEPING CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY WHILE THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. LEANED
TOWARDS THE NAM GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY IN THIS KIND OF PATTERN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. WINDS LIGHT ALL DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE
REGION WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MN/WI. ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY
SLEET TRANSITIONING TO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN AND
THE BEST LARGE-SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. AGAIN...ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO OPT FOR A SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT QUITE PHASE BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND THE STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM. THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WAS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF IT SHOULD REACH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. A STRONG LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH THE ECMWF LIFTING THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL MN BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS STORM STILL BEARS WATCHING...BUT AT
THIS TIME...THE MODELS DO NOT PHASE THE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. IF IT DOES...IT COULD
EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY CHANCE TYPE LIQUID
PRECIPITATION OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE START OF
THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A MIX
AND THEN SNOW BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THERE SHOULD BE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW ON MONDAY AS WELL...AS THE STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFIES.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WITH COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPS SHOULD START TO RECOVER BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FZDZ POTENTIAL THROUGH SAT MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FZDZ OR -SN TO THE BORDERLAND REGION LATE TONIGHT. FOCUS
TURNS TO THE WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
CRUISING NORTH OVER WISCONSIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25  34  30  39 /  10  10  30  40
INL  26  33  27  36 /  10  10  30  30
BRD  26  35  29  37 /  10  10  20  20
HYR  24  37  31  42 /  10  20  50  50
ASX  27  37  31  43 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ143>146.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>142-147-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 220605
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1205 AM CST SAT NOV 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF FZDZ UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE IT
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE BORDERLAND/IRON RANGE AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW TWO AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS/FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TRACKING EAST INTO
ONTARIO. LATEST NAM/WRF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ FROM THIS WAVE SKIRT ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS TURNS TO THE STRONG WAA WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THAT PUSHES INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
LOW CEILINGS ARE STILL CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN IOWA...CRUISING
NORTH INTO SRN MN. TRIED TO CAPTURE A DECENT TIME-TRACK ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS/DZ...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ARRIVAL TIME
INTO THE WISCONSIN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

COMPLEX PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ALL TYPES OF WINTRY PRECIP
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE FREEZING AND
POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO A
STRONG STORM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. TODAY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR TO THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND THUS GUSTY WINDS. AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS FLOW WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

TODAY...SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY A STRATUS DECK RAPIDLY DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON DUE
TO MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WHILE THE
SUN IS OUT DUE TO A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET AT JUST 2-4 KFT AGL MIXING
DOWN TO CREATE GUSTS NEAR 30KTS AT THE SURFACE. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...RISING TO NEAR 30 AT A FEW LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...STRATUS WILL BE QUICK TO FORM ACROSS THE REGION. NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT...AND SOME LIFT IN LOW LEVELS
COMBINED WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF NORTHERN MN AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE GOOD LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL DEVELOP
DUE TO A FEW SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
FLOW. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ICE
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT ELEVATED
SURFACES COULD ACCUMULATE A LIGHT GLAZE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE THE INVERSION SETS UP...OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND STRATUS DECK...IN THE LOW TO MID
20S OVERNIGHT RISING TO THE UPPER 20S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT WITH DRIZZLE COMING TO AN
END IN THE MORNING HOURS AND TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY WILL MELT ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION...AND DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 30S. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON IF THE STRATUS DECK
WILL STICK AROUND ALL DAY OR IF THERE WILL BE BREAKS...WITH THE NAM
AGAIN AGGRESSIVE ABOUT KEEPING CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY WHILE THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. LEANED
TOWARDS THE NAM GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY IN THIS KIND OF PATTERN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. WINDS LIGHT ALL DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE
REGION WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MN/WI. ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY
SLEET TRANSITIONING TO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN AND
THE BEST LARGE-SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. AGAIN...ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO OPT FOR A SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT QUITE PHASE BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND THE STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM. THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WAS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF IT SHOULD REACH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. A STRONG LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH THE ECMWF LIFTING THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL MN BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS STORM STILL BEARS WATCHING...BUT AT
THIS TIME...THE MODELS DO NOT PHASE THE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. IF IT DOES...IT COULD
EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY CHANCE TYPE LIQUID
PRECIPITATION OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE START OF
THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A MIX
AND THEN SNOW BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THERE SHOULD BE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW ON MONDAY AS WELL...AS THE STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFIES.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WITH COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPS SHOULD START TO RECOVER BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FZDZ POTENTIAL THROUGH SAT MORNING.

A SHORT WAVE SLIDING EAST ACROSS ONTARIO WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND
PATCHY FZDZ OR -SN TO THE BORDERLAND REGION LATE TONIGHT. FOCUS
TURNS TO THE WAA AND INCREASING MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO
THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. CURRENT
SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MVFR CEILINGS
CRUISING NORTH OVER WISCONSIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25  34  30  39 /  10  10  30  40
INL  26  33  27  36 /  10  10  30  30
BRD  26  35  29  37 /  10  10  20  20
HYR  24  37  31  42 /  10  20  50  50
ASX  27  37  31  43 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ143>146.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>142-147-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 212358
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
558 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF FZDZ UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE IT
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE BORDERLAND/IRON RANGE AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW TWO AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS/FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TRACKING EAST INTO
ONTARIO. LATEST NAM/WRF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ FROM THIS WAVE SKIRT ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS TURNS TO THE STRONG WAA WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THAT PUSHES INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
LOW CEILINGS ARE STILL CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN IOWA...CRUISING
NORTH INTO SRN MN. TRIED TO CAPTURE A DECENT TIME-TRACK ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS/DZ...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ARRIVAL TIME
INTO THE WISCONSIN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

COMPLEX PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ALL TYPES OF WINTRY PRECIP
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE FREEZING AND
POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO A
STRONG STORM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. TODAY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR TO THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND THUS GUSTY WINDS. AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS FLOW WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

TODAY...SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY A STRATUS DECK RAPIDLY DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON DUE
TO MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WHILE THE
SUN IS OUT DUE TO A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET AT JUST 2-4 KFT AGL MIXING
DOWN TO CREATE GUSTS NEAR 30KTS AT THE SURFACE. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...RISING TO NEAR 30 AT A FEW LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...STRATUS WILL BE QUICK TO FORM ACROSS THE REGION. NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT...AND SOME LIFT IN LOW LEVELS
COMBINED WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF NORTHERN MN AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE GOOD LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL DEVELOP
DUE TO A FEW SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
FLOW. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ICE
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT ELEVATED
SURFACES COULD ACCUMULATE A LIGHT GLAZE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE THE INVERSION SETS UP...OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND STRATUS DECK...IN THE LOW TO MID
20S OVERNIGHT RISING TO THE UPPER 20S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT WITH DRIZZLE COMING TO AN
END IN THE MORNING HOURS AND TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY WILL MELT ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION...AND DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 30S. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON IF THE STRATUS DECK
WILL STICK AROUND ALL DAY OR IF THERE WILL BE BREAKS...WITH THE NAM
AGAIN AGGRESSIVE ABOUT KEEPING CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY WHILE THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. LEANED
TOWARDS THE NAM GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY IN THIS KIND OF PATTERN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. WINDS LIGHT ALL DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE
REGION WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MN/WI. ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY
SLEET TRANSITIONING TO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN AND
THE BEST LARGE-SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. AGAIN...ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO OPT FOR A SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT QUITE PHASE BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND THE STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM. THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WAS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF IT SHOULD REACH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. A STRONG LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH THE ECMWF LIFTING THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL MN BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS STORM STILL BEARS WATCHING...BUT AT
THIS TIME...THE MODELS DO NOT PHASE THE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. IF IT DOES...IT COULD
EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY CHANCE TYPE LIQUID
PRECIPITATION OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE START OF
THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A MIX
AND THEN SNOW BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THERE SHOULD BE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW ON MONDAY AS WELL...AS THE STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFIES.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WITH COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPS SHOULD START TO RECOVER BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FZDZ POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. LATEST
SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW TWO AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE
FZDZ THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TRACKING EAST INTO
ONTARIO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SRN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FZDZ FROM THIS WAVE SKIRT ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS TURNS TO THE STRONG WAA WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THAT PUSHES INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MVFR CEILINGS CRUISING NORTH INTO SRN MN. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING THIS STRATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ TO LIFT INTO
NRN WISCONSIN....INCLUDING THE KHYR AREA...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  34  30  39 /  20  20  30  40
INL  25  33  27  36 /  20  20  30  30
BRD  25  35  29  37 /  10  10  20  20
HYR  23  37  31  42 /  10  20  50  50
ASX  26  37  31  43 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ143>146.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>142-147-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 212358
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
558 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF FZDZ UNTIL LATE TONIGHT...AND HAVE IT
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE BORDERLAND/IRON RANGE AND NORTHERN
WISCONSIN. LATEST SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW TWO AREAS
OF LOW CLOUDS/FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TRACKING EAST INTO
ONTARIO. LATEST NAM/WRF GUIDANCE SUGGEST THE LOW CLOUDS AND
POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ FROM THIS WAVE SKIRT ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS TURNS TO THE STRONG WAA WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THAT PUSHES INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. CURRENT SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE
LOW CEILINGS ARE STILL CONFINED TO LOCATIONS IN IOWA...CRUISING
NORTH INTO SRN MN. TRIED TO CAPTURE A DECENT TIME-TRACK ON THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS/DZ...WHICH SUGGESTS AN ARRIVAL TIME
INTO THE WISCONSIN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

COMPLEX PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ALL TYPES OF WINTRY PRECIP
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE FREEZING AND
POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO A
STRONG STORM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. TODAY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR TO THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND THUS GUSTY WINDS. AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS FLOW WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

TODAY...SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY A STRATUS DECK RAPIDLY DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON DUE
TO MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WHILE THE
SUN IS OUT DUE TO A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET AT JUST 2-4 KFT AGL MIXING
DOWN TO CREATE GUSTS NEAR 30KTS AT THE SURFACE. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...RISING TO NEAR 30 AT A FEW LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...STRATUS WILL BE QUICK TO FORM ACROSS THE REGION. NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT...AND SOME LIFT IN LOW LEVELS
COMBINED WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF NORTHERN MN AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE GOOD LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL DEVELOP
DUE TO A FEW SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
FLOW. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ICE
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT ELEVATED
SURFACES COULD ACCUMULATE A LIGHT GLAZE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE THE INVERSION SETS UP...OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND STRATUS DECK...IN THE LOW TO MID
20S OVERNIGHT RISING TO THE UPPER 20S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT WITH DRIZZLE COMING TO AN
END IN THE MORNING HOURS AND TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY WILL MELT ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION...AND DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 30S. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON IF THE STRATUS DECK
WILL STICK AROUND ALL DAY OR IF THERE WILL BE BREAKS...WITH THE NAM
AGAIN AGGRESSIVE ABOUT KEEPING CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY WHILE THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. LEANED
TOWARDS THE NAM GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY IN THIS KIND OF PATTERN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. WINDS LIGHT ALL DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE
REGION WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MN/WI. ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY
SLEET TRANSITIONING TO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN AND
THE BEST LARGE-SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. AGAIN...ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO OPT FOR A SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT QUITE PHASE BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND THE STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM. THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WAS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF IT SHOULD REACH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. A STRONG LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH THE ECMWF LIFTING THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL MN BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS STORM STILL BEARS WATCHING...BUT AT
THIS TIME...THE MODELS DO NOT PHASE THE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. IF IT DOES...IT COULD
EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY CHANCE TYPE LIQUID
PRECIPITATION OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE START OF
THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A MIX
AND THEN SNOW BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THERE SHOULD BE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW ON MONDAY AS WELL...AS THE STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFIES.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WITH COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPS SHOULD START TO RECOVER BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 533 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

CHALLENGING FORECAST WITH LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE ON TIMING
IN THE LOW CLOUDS AND FZDZ POTENTIAL LATE TONIGHT/SAT MORNING. LATEST
SAT IMAGERY AND SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW TWO AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AND POSSIBLE
FZDZ THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT.

THE FIRST WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE TRACKING EAST INTO
ONTARIO. LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE SRN EDGE OF THE LOW CLOUDS
AND PATCHY FZDZ FROM THIS WAVE SKIRT ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FOCUS TURNS TO THE STRONG WAA WITH A 40-50 KT LLJ AND INCREASING
MOISTURE THAT PUSHES INTO THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF
THE MVFR CEILINGS CRUISING NORTH INTO SRN MN. AT THIS
TIME...EXPECTING THIS STRATUS AND POTENTIAL FOR FZDZ TO LIFT INTO
NRN WISCONSIN....INCLUDING THE KHYR AREA...AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  34  30  39 /  20  20  30  40
INL  25  33  27  36 /  20  20  30  30
BRD  25  35  29  37 /  10  10  20  20
HYR  23  37  31  42 /  10  20  50  50
ASX  26  37  31  43 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ143>146.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>142-147-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 212110
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
310 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

COMPLEX PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ALL TYPES OF WINTRY PRECIP
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE FREEZING AND
POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO A
STRONG STORM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. TODAY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR TO THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND THUS GUSTY WINDS. AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS FLOW WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

TODAY...SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY A STRATUS DECK RAPIDLY DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON DUE
TO MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WHILE THE
SUN IS OUT DUE TO A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET AT JUST 2-4 KFT AGL MIXING
DOWN TO CREATE GUSTS NEAR 30KTS AT THE SURFACE. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...RISING TO NEAR 30 AT A FEW LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...STRATUS WILL BE QUICK TO FORM ACROSS THE REGION. NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT...AND SOME LIFT IN LOW LEVELS
COMBINED WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF NORTHERN MN AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE GOOD LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL DEVELOP
DUE TO A FEW SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
FLOW. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ICE
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT ELEVATED
SURFACES COULD ACCUMULATE A LIGHT GLAZE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE THE INVERSION SETS UP...OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND STRATUS DECK...IN THE LOW TO MID
20S OVERNIGHT RISING TO THE UPPER 20S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT WITH DRIZZLE COMING TO AN
END IN THE MORNING HOURS AND TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY WILL MELT ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION...AND DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 30S. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON IF THE STRATUS DECK
WILL STICK AROUND ALL DAY OR IF THERE WILL BE BREAKS...WITH THE NAM
AGAIN AGGRESSIVE ABOUT KEEPING CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY WHILE THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. LEANED
TOWARDS THE NAM GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY IN THIS KIND OF PATTERN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. WINDS LIGHT ALL DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE
REGION WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MN/WI. ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY
SLEET TRANSITIONING TO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN AND
THE BEST LARGE-SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. AGAIN...ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO OPT FOR A SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT QUITE PHASE BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND THE STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM. THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WAS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF IT SHOULD REACH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. A STRONG LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH THE ECMWF LIFTING THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL MN BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS STORM STILL BEARS WATCHING...BUT AT
THIS TIME...THE MODELS DO NOT PHASE THE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. IF IT DOES...IT COULD
EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY CHANCE TYPE LIQUID
PRECIPITATION OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE START OF
THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A MIX
AND THEN SNOW BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THERE SHOULD BE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW ON MONDAY AS WELL...AS THE STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFIES.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WITH COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPS SHOULD START TO RECOVER BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AS
AREAS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE FOCUS FOR
TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD AND FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT. WARM AIR BLOWING ACROSS A COLD SNOW PACK WILL RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND TAF SITES BY TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ICING ISSUES
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...ALONG WITH LLWS DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  34  30  39 /  20  20  30  40
INL  25  33  27  36 /  20  20  30  30
BRD  25  35  29  37 /  10  10  20  20
HYR  23  37  31  42 /  10  20  50  50
ASX  26  37  31  43 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ143>146.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>142-147-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 212110
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
310 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

COMPLEX PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND WITH ALL TYPES OF WINTRY PRECIP
POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY REACH ABOVE FREEZING AND
POSSIBLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS WILL MERGE INTO A
STRONG STORM OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS WEEKEND. TODAY SOUTH
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS WILL BRING WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR TO THE REGION. A SURFACE LOW TRAVERSING WEST TO EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL MANITOBA INTO NORTHERN ONTARIO AND A SURFACE HIGH OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY GRADUALLY MOVE EAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC WILL LEAD TO A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND THUS GUSTY WINDS. AT
MID AND UPPER LEVELS FLOW WILL BE NEARLY ZONAL THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WHEN A DEEPENING UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LEADING TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

TODAY...SUNSHINE BREAKING OUT THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON FOLLOWED
BY A STRATUS DECK RAPIDLY DEVELOPING IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON DUE
TO MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR ADVECTING IN. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY WHILE THE
SUN IS OUT DUE TO A 50-60KT LOW LEVEL JET AT JUST 2-4 KFT AGL MIXING
DOWN TO CREATE GUSTS NEAR 30KTS AT THE SURFACE. TEMPS WILL BE MUCH
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY...RISING TO NEAR 30 AT A FEW LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...STRATUS WILL BE QUICK TO FORM ACROSS THE REGION. NAM IS
THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH A CLOUD DECK DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING BY MIDNIGHT...AND SOME LIFT IN LOW LEVELS
COMBINED WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
LEAD TO FREEZING DRIZZLE AND FREEZING RAIN. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE IN THE ARROWHEAD REGION OF NORTHERN MN AND
MUCH OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE GOOD LOW LEVEL LIFT WILL DEVELOP
DUE TO A FEW SUBTLE MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS IN THE
FLOW. SOME SLEET MAY MIX IN ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. ICE
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT...BUT ELEVATED
SURFACES COULD ACCUMULATE A LIGHT GLAZE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY ONCE THE INVERSION SETS UP...OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST TO
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE STEADY THROUGH THE NIGHT
DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND STRATUS DECK...IN THE LOW TO MID
20S OVERNIGHT RISING TO THE UPPER 20S BY SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY...SOME SUN IS EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT WITH DRIZZLE COMING TO AN
END IN THE MORNING HOURS AND TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO ABOVE FREEZING.
TEMPS RISING ABOVE FREEZING DURING THE DAY WILL MELT ANY ICE
ACCUMULATION...AND DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER HIGHS MAY REACH THE
UPPER 30S. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES ON IF THE STRATUS DECK
WILL STICK AROUND ALL DAY OR IF THERE WILL BE BREAKS...WITH THE NAM
AGAIN AGGRESSIVE ABOUT KEEPING CLOUDS MOST OF THE DAY WHILE THE
GFS/GEM/ECMWF ARE MORE SUN THAN CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. LEANED
TOWARDS THE NAM GIVEN CLIMATOLOGY IN THIS KIND OF PATTERN...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN NORMAL. WINDS LIGHT ALL DAY OUT OF THE
SOUTH AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE EAST TOWARDS THE
REGION WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING BEGINNING TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH
CENTRAL MN/WI. ANOTHER ROUND OF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE AND POSSIBLY
SLEET TRANSITIONING TO RAIN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE
WIDESPREAD THAN FRIDAY NIGHT AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS ADVECTED IN AND
THE BEST LARGE-SCALE LIFT DEVELOPS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. AGAIN...ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING
THROUGH THE NIGHT DUE TO WARM AIR ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM FOR
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO OPT FOR A SYSTEM THAT DOES NOT QUITE PHASE BETWEEN THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND THE STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM. THE STRONG UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM WAS NOW MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND
ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF IT SHOULD REACH NORTHEASTERN TEXAS BY SUNDAY
MORNING. A STRONG LLJ IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW AND STRONG SHORTWAVE...WITH THE ECMWF LIFTING THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTO WISCONSIN AND UPPER MICHIGAN BY 12Z MONDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE NORTHERN STREAM PUSHES INTO
CENTRAL MN BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS STORM STILL BEARS WATCHING...BUT AT
THIS TIME...THE MODELS DO NOT PHASE THE MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY BETWEEN THE TWO UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS. IF IT DOES...IT COULD
EVOLVE INTO A MAJOR STORM SYSTEM FOR THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TRENDS...IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY CHANCE TYPE LIQUID
PRECIPITATION OR AREAS OF DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE FOR THE START OF
THE EXTENDED TIME PERIOD...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A MIX
AND THEN SNOW BY EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK. THERE SHOULD BE AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW ON MONDAY AS WELL...AS THE STORM SYSTEM INTENSIFIES.
LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL THEN BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...WITH COOL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE WORK WEEK.
TEMPS SHOULD START TO RECOVER BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AS UPPER
LEVEL RIDGING PUSHES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AS
AREAS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE FOCUS FOR
TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD AND FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT. WARM AIR BLOWING ACROSS A COLD SNOW PACK WILL RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND TAF SITES BY TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ICING ISSUES
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...ALONG WITH LLWS DEVELOPMENT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  34  30  39 /  20  20  30  40
INL  25  33  27  36 /  20  20  30  30
BRD  25  35  29  37 /  10  10  20  20
HYR  23  37  31  42 /  10  20  50  50
ASX  26  37  31  43 /  10  10  40  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ143>146.

     GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>142-147-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...DAP
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 211737
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1137 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...RISING QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE LOWER-MID 20S AND REMAINING MILD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
JUMP INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT
MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH A FAIRLY ROBUST AREA OF WAA IN THE MID LEVELS.
AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES AS A TROUGH SLIDES INTO ERN MT AND
NRN CO. THE UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
DE- AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EWD TODAY...WITH THE GENERAL FLOW
BECOMING QUASI- ZONAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THE WEAKENING TROUGH
ROTATING EWD OVER THE REGION.

THE STRONG WAA ALOFT WILL ACT TO CREATE A SHARP INVERSION OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SAT MORNING. SHOULD SEE CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE W/NW TODAY DUE TO WEAK MID
LEVEL F-GEN SETTING UP ALONG THE DAKOTAS/NRN MN REGION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE BROAD LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DZ
OR FZDZ. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FZDZ FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF SAT MORNING...AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL DZ IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE PERIOD WHEN THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO
LIQUID. WEAK RIDGING REGAINS A HOLD ON THE AREA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO
THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE REACTING TO THE WAA/MIXING AND
APPROACHING CLOUD COVER FROM THE W/NW WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
TEMPS BEING OBSERVED OVER NE MN. WILL SEE THE SAME TREND OCCUR
FURTHER TO THE EAST INTO NW WI THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TODAY...BUT NOT GET MUCH
WARMER THAN THAT DUE TO THE LIMITED AMT OF SUN UNDER THE ROBUST
CLOUD COVER.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED
TONIGHT. LOWS FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER
20S...BEFORE RISING ITO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY EVENING
WITH A SFC RIDGE OVER THE FA. GOOD SHOT OF WAA WITH H85 TEMPS
WARMING TO NEAR 0C ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 5C ACROSS THE
SOUTH. EXPECT NO PCPN. AFTER 06Z...PCPN BEGINS TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
INTO THE FA AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS NEAR THE NW ND/CANADA BORDER
AREA. THE PCPN IS ON THE NOSE OF A LLJ LIFTING INTO NW WI WITH THE
WAA. MODELS OFFER VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT WITH
REGARD TO QPF AND PTYPE. HAVE A MIX OF -RA/-FZRA AS SOUNDINGS FROM
THE DIFFERENT MODELS SUGGEST. THERE WILL BE NO ICE ACCUMULATION
WITH THESE DIFFERENCES. ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE WITH THE MASS FIELDS. HOWEVER...THEY AGREE THAT A DRY SLOT
IS WORKING INTO WESTERN MN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE MN/WI
BORDER BY 18Z. THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL FALL IN THE VCNTY OF THE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF -FZRA/-SN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FA WITH -RA OVER THE E THANKS TO THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND CAA BEGINNING BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MID MORNING...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO BE ALL
LIQUID. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER MUCH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED THE POPS CONSIDERABLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS FACTOR. -RA WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE AREA WHERE THE WARMEST AIR IS LOCATED. FURTHER WWD A MIX OF
-FZRA/-SN IS EXPECTED AS THE COLUMN COOLS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
SFC LOW IS LIFTING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO MN. CAA IS WELL UNDERWAY AND -SN WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WESTERN THIRD OFF THE FA WITH A -FZRA/-SN MIX ELSEWHERE
AS THE REMNANTS OF THE DRY SLOT REACH NW WI. VERY LITTLE ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. THE PCPN FINALLY
BECOMES ALL SNOW ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND CAA COVERS THE AREA. HAVE A BLSN MENTION AS WELL WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VCNTY. THE SNOW DIMINISHES MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY. NEXT
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
CLIPPER AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AS
AREAS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE FOCUS FOR
TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD AND FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT. WARM AIR BLOWING ACROSS A COLD SNOW PACK WILL RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND TAF SITES BY TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ICING ISSUES
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...ALONG WITH LLWS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  23  35  28 /   0  10  10  10
INL  27  23  35  24 /   0  10  20  10
BRD  27  25  35  27 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  25  22  36  30 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  28  24  38  28 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ143>146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>142-
     147-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP







000
FXUS63 KDLH 211737
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1137 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...RISING QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE LOWER-MID 20S AND REMAINING MILD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
JUMP INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT
MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH A FAIRLY ROBUST AREA OF WAA IN THE MID LEVELS.
AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES AS A TROUGH SLIDES INTO ERN MT AND
NRN CO. THE UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
DE- AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EWD TODAY...WITH THE GENERAL FLOW
BECOMING QUASI- ZONAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THE WEAKENING TROUGH
ROTATING EWD OVER THE REGION.

THE STRONG WAA ALOFT WILL ACT TO CREATE A SHARP INVERSION OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SAT MORNING. SHOULD SEE CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE W/NW TODAY DUE TO WEAK MID
LEVEL F-GEN SETTING UP ALONG THE DAKOTAS/NRN MN REGION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE BROAD LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DZ
OR FZDZ. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FZDZ FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF SAT MORNING...AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL DZ IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE PERIOD WHEN THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO
LIQUID. WEAK RIDGING REGAINS A HOLD ON THE AREA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO
THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE REACTING TO THE WAA/MIXING AND
APPROACHING CLOUD COVER FROM THE W/NW WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
TEMPS BEING OBSERVED OVER NE MN. WILL SEE THE SAME TREND OCCUR
FURTHER TO THE EAST INTO NW WI THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TODAY...BUT NOT GET MUCH
WARMER THAN THAT DUE TO THE LIMITED AMT OF SUN UNDER THE ROBUST
CLOUD COVER.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED
TONIGHT. LOWS FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER
20S...BEFORE RISING ITO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY EVENING
WITH A SFC RIDGE OVER THE FA. GOOD SHOT OF WAA WITH H85 TEMPS
WARMING TO NEAR 0C ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 5C ACROSS THE
SOUTH. EXPECT NO PCPN. AFTER 06Z...PCPN BEGINS TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
INTO THE FA AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS NEAR THE NW ND/CANADA BORDER
AREA. THE PCPN IS ON THE NOSE OF A LLJ LIFTING INTO NW WI WITH THE
WAA. MODELS OFFER VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT WITH
REGARD TO QPF AND PTYPE. HAVE A MIX OF -RA/-FZRA AS SOUNDINGS FROM
THE DIFFERENT MODELS SUGGEST. THERE WILL BE NO ICE ACCUMULATION
WITH THESE DIFFERENCES. ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE WITH THE MASS FIELDS. HOWEVER...THEY AGREE THAT A DRY SLOT
IS WORKING INTO WESTERN MN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE MN/WI
BORDER BY 18Z. THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL FALL IN THE VCNTY OF THE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF -FZRA/-SN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FA WITH -RA OVER THE E THANKS TO THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND CAA BEGINNING BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MID MORNING...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO BE ALL
LIQUID. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER MUCH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED THE POPS CONSIDERABLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS FACTOR. -RA WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE AREA WHERE THE WARMEST AIR IS LOCATED. FURTHER WWD A MIX OF
-FZRA/-SN IS EXPECTED AS THE COLUMN COOLS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
SFC LOW IS LIFTING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO MN. CAA IS WELL UNDERWAY AND -SN WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WESTERN THIRD OFF THE FA WITH A -FZRA/-SN MIX ELSEWHERE
AS THE REMNANTS OF THE DRY SLOT REACH NW WI. VERY LITTLE ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. THE PCPN FINALLY
BECOMES ALL SNOW ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND CAA COVERS THE AREA. HAVE A BLSN MENTION AS WELL WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VCNTY. THE SNOW DIMINISHES MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY. NEXT
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
CLIPPER AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON...AS
AREAS OF MID TO HIGH CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH AT TIMES. THE FOCUS FOR
TONIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUD AND FOG/FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT. WARM AIR BLOWING ACROSS A COLD SNOW PACK WILL RESULT
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND TAF SITES BY TONIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME ICING ISSUES
DEVELOPING TONIGHT...ALONG WITH LLWS DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  23  35  28 /   0  10  10  10
INL  27  23  35  24 /   0  10  20  10
BRD  27  25  35  27 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  25  22  36  30 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  28  24  38  28 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ143>146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>142-
     147-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 211135
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
535 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...RISING QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE LOWER-MID 20S AND REMAINING MILD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
JUMP INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT
MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH A FAIRLY ROBUST AREA OF WAA IN THE MID LEVELS.
AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES AS A TROUGH SLIDES INTO ERN MT AND
NRN CO. THE UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
DE- AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EWD TODAY...WITH THE GENERAL FLOW
BECOMING QUASI- ZONAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THE WEAKENING TROUGH
ROTATING EWD OVER THE REGION.

THE STRONG WAA ALOFT WILL ACT TO CREATE A SHARP INVERSION OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SAT MORNING. SHOULD SEE CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE W/NW TODAY DUE TO WEAK MID
LEVEL F-GEN SETTING UP ALONG THE DAKOTAS/NRN MN REGION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE BROAD LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DZ
OR FZDZ. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FZDZ FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF SAT MORNING...AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL DZ IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE PERIOD WHEN THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO
LIQUID. WEAK RIDGING REGAINS A HOLD ON THE AREA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO
THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE REACTING TO THE WAA/MIXING AND
APPROACHING CLOUD COVER FROM THE W/NW WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
TEMPS BEING OBSERVED OVER NE MN. WILL SEE THE SAME TREND OCCUR
FURTHER TO THE EAST INTO NW WI THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TODAY...BUT NOT GET MUCH
WARMER THAN THAT DUE TO THE LIMITED AMT OF SUN UNDER THE ROBUST
CLOUD COVER.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED
TONIGHT. LOWS FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER
20S...BEFORE RISING ITO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY EVENING
WITH A SFC RIDGE OVER THE FA. GOOD SHOT OF WAA WITH H85 TEMPS
WARMING TO NEAR 0C ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 5C ACROSS THE
SOUTH. EXPECT NO PCPN. AFTER 06Z...PCPN BEGINS TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
INTO THE FA AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS NEAR THE NW ND/CANADA BORDER
AREA. THE PCPN IS ON THE NOSE OF A LLJ LIFTING INTO NW WI WITH THE
WAA. MODELS OFFER VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT WITH
REGARD TO QPF AND PTYPE. HAVE A MIX OF -RA/-FZRA AS SOUNDINGS FROM
THE DIFFERENT MODELS SUGGEST. THERE WILL BE NO ICE ACCUMULATION
WITH THESE DIFFERENCES. ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE WITH THE MASS FIELDS. HOWEVER...THEY AGREE THAT A DRY SLOT
IS WORKING INTO WESTERN MN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE MN/WI
BORDER BY 18Z. THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL FALL IN THE VCNTY OF THE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF -FZRA/-SN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FA WITH -RA OVER THE E THANKS TO THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND CAA BEGINNING BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MID MORNING...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO BE ALL
LIQUID. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER MUCH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED THE POPS CONSIDERABLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS FACTOR. -RA WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE AREA WHERE THE WARMEST AIR IS LOCATED. FURTHER WWD A MIX OF
-FZRA/-SN IS EXPECTED AS THE COLUMN COOLS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
SFC LOW IS LIFTING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO MN. CAA IS WELL UNDERWAY AND -SN WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WESTERN THIRD OFF THE FA WITH A -FZRA/-SN MIX ELSEWHERE
AS THE REMNANTS OF THE DRY SLOT REACH NW WI. VERY LITTLE ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. THE PCPN FINALLY
BECOMES ALL SNOW ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND CAA COVERS THE AREA. HAVE A BLSN MENTION AS WELL WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VCNTY. THE SNOW DIMINISHES MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY. NEXT
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
CLIPPER AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR UNTIL NEAR SUNSET...THEN MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS PATCHY BR/-FZDZ. ALSO EXPECT LLWS TO DEVELOP AFTER 01Z
NEAR BRD AND SPREAD TO THE E THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  23  35  28 /   0  10  10  10
INL  26  23  35  24 /   0  10  20  10
BRD  26  25  35  27 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  23  22  36  30 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  25  24  38  28 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ143>146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>142-147-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 211135
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
535 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...RISING QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE LOWER-MID 20S AND REMAINING MILD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
JUMP INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT
MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH A FAIRLY ROBUST AREA OF WAA IN THE MID LEVELS.
AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES AS A TROUGH SLIDES INTO ERN MT AND
NRN CO. THE UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
DE- AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EWD TODAY...WITH THE GENERAL FLOW
BECOMING QUASI- ZONAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THE WEAKENING TROUGH
ROTATING EWD OVER THE REGION.

THE STRONG WAA ALOFT WILL ACT TO CREATE A SHARP INVERSION OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SAT MORNING. SHOULD SEE CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE W/NW TODAY DUE TO WEAK MID
LEVEL F-GEN SETTING UP ALONG THE DAKOTAS/NRN MN REGION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE BROAD LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DZ
OR FZDZ. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FZDZ FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF SAT MORNING...AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL DZ IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE PERIOD WHEN THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO
LIQUID. WEAK RIDGING REGAINS A HOLD ON THE AREA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO
THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE REACTING TO THE WAA/MIXING AND
APPROACHING CLOUD COVER FROM THE W/NW WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
TEMPS BEING OBSERVED OVER NE MN. WILL SEE THE SAME TREND OCCUR
FURTHER TO THE EAST INTO NW WI THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TODAY...BUT NOT GET MUCH
WARMER THAN THAT DUE TO THE LIMITED AMT OF SUN UNDER THE ROBUST
CLOUD COVER.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED
TONIGHT. LOWS FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER
20S...BEFORE RISING ITO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY EVENING
WITH A SFC RIDGE OVER THE FA. GOOD SHOT OF WAA WITH H85 TEMPS
WARMING TO NEAR 0C ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 5C ACROSS THE
SOUTH. EXPECT NO PCPN. AFTER 06Z...PCPN BEGINS TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
INTO THE FA AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS NEAR THE NW ND/CANADA BORDER
AREA. THE PCPN IS ON THE NOSE OF A LLJ LIFTING INTO NW WI WITH THE
WAA. MODELS OFFER VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT WITH
REGARD TO QPF AND PTYPE. HAVE A MIX OF -RA/-FZRA AS SOUNDINGS FROM
THE DIFFERENT MODELS SUGGEST. THERE WILL BE NO ICE ACCUMULATION
WITH THESE DIFFERENCES. ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE WITH THE MASS FIELDS. HOWEVER...THEY AGREE THAT A DRY SLOT
IS WORKING INTO WESTERN MN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE MN/WI
BORDER BY 18Z. THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL FALL IN THE VCNTY OF THE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF -FZRA/-SN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FA WITH -RA OVER THE E THANKS TO THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND CAA BEGINNING BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MID MORNING...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO BE ALL
LIQUID. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER MUCH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED THE POPS CONSIDERABLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS FACTOR. -RA WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE AREA WHERE THE WARMEST AIR IS LOCATED. FURTHER WWD A MIX OF
-FZRA/-SN IS EXPECTED AS THE COLUMN COOLS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
SFC LOW IS LIFTING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO MN. CAA IS WELL UNDERWAY AND -SN WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WESTERN THIRD OFF THE FA WITH A -FZRA/-SN MIX ELSEWHERE
AS THE REMNANTS OF THE DRY SLOT REACH NW WI. VERY LITTLE ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. THE PCPN FINALLY
BECOMES ALL SNOW ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND CAA COVERS THE AREA. HAVE A BLSN MENTION AS WELL WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VCNTY. THE SNOW DIMINISHES MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY. NEXT
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
CLIPPER AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 535 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

VFR UNTIL NEAR SUNSET...THEN MVFR CIGS WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
CONDITIONS PATCHY BR/-FZDZ. ALSO EXPECT LLWS TO DEVELOP AFTER 01Z
NEAR BRD AND SPREAD TO THE E THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  23  35  28 /   0  10  10  10
INL  26  23  35  24 /   0  10  20  10
BRD  26  25  35  27 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  23  22  36  30 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  25  24  38  28 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ143>146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>142-147-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 210935
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
335 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...RISING QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE LOWER-MID 20S AND REMAINING MILD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
JUMP INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT
MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH A FAIRLY ROBUST AREA OF WAA IN THE MID LEVELS.
AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES AS A TROUGH SLIDES INTO ERN MT AND
NRN CO. THE UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
DE- AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EWD TODAY...WITH THE GENERAL FLOW
BECOMING QUASI- ZONAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THE WEAKENING TROUGH
ROTATING EWD OVER THE REGION.

THE STRONG WAA ALOFT WILL ACT TO CREATE A SHARP INVERSION OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SAT MORNING. SHOULD SEE CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE W/NW TODAY DUE TO WEAK MID
LEVEL F-GEN SETTING UP ALONG THE DAKOTAS/NRN MN REGION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE BROAD LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DZ
OR FZDZ. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FZDZ FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF SAT MORNING...AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL DZ IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE PERIOD WHEN THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO
LIQUID. WEAK RIDGING REGAINS A HOLD ON THE AREA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO
THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE REACTING TO THE WAA/MIXING AND
APPROACHING CLOUD COVER FROM THE W/NW WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
TEMPS BEING OBSERVED OVER NE MN. WILL SEE THE SAME TREND OCCUR
FURTHER TO THE EAST INTO NW WI THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TODAY...BUT NOT GET MUCH
WARMER THAN THAT DUE TO THE LIMITED AMT OF SUN UNDER THE ROBUST
CLOUD COVER.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED
TONIGHT. LOWS FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER
20S...BEFORE RISING ITO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY EVENING
WITH A SFC RIDGE OVER THE FA. GOOD SHOT OF WAA WITH H85 TEMPS
WARMING TO NEAR 0C ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 5C ACROSS THE
SOUTH. EXPECT NO PCPN. AFTER 06Z...PCPN BEGINS TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
INTO THE FA AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS NEAR THE NW ND/CANADA BORDER
AREA. THE PCPN IS ON THE NOSE OF A LLJ LIFTING INTO NW WI WITH THE
WAA. MODELS OFFER VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT WITH
REGARD TO QPF AND PTYPE. HAVE A MIX OF -RA/-FZRA AS SOUNDINGS FROM
THE DIFFERENT MODELS SUGGEST. THERE WILL BE NO ICE ACCUMULATION
WITH THESE DIFFERENCES. ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE WITH THE MASS FIELDS. HOWEVER...THEY AGREE THAT A DRY SLOT
IS WORKING INTO WESTERN MN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE MN/WI
BORDER BY 18Z. THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL FALL IN THE VCNTY OF THE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF -FZRA/-SN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FA WITH -RA OVER THE E THANKS TO THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND CAA BEGINNING BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MID MORNING...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO BE ALL
LIQUID. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER MUCH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED THE POPS CONSIDERABLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS FACTOR. -RA WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE AREA WHERE THE WARMEST AIR IS LOCATED. FURTHER WWD A MIX OF
-FZRA/-SN IS EXPECTED AS THE COLUMN COOLS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
SFC LOW IS LIFTING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO MN. CAA IS WELL UNDERWAY AND -SN WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WESTERN THIRD OFF THE FA WITH A -FZRA/-SN MIX ELSEWHERE
AS THE REMNANTS OF THE DRY SLOT REACH NW WI. VERY LITTLE ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. THE PCPN FINALLY
BECOMES ALL SNOW ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND CAA COVERS THE AREA. HAVE A BLSN MENTION AS WELL WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VCNTY. THE SNOW DIMINISHES MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY. NEXT
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
CLIPPER AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MORNING.
A TRANSITION TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE FOUND TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW
CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MN THIS MORNING...SPREADING OVER
LOCATIONS IN WIS AFTER 18Z. HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS AT ALL TERMINAL
AFTER 00Z AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. DUE TO THE SURGE OF
MOISTURE AND SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPS...THERE IS ALSO A SMALL
THREAT FOR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...MAINLY LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OF FZDZ OUT OF TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  23  35  28 /   0  10  10  10
INL  26  23  35  24 /   0  10  20  10
BRD  26  25  35  27 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  23  22  36  30 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  25  24  38  28 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ143>146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>142-147-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 210935
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
335 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING...RISING QUICKLY THROUGH THE DAY INTO
THE LOWER-MID 20S AND REMAINING MILD THROUGH TONIGHT WITH ANOTHER
JUMP INTO THE 30S ON SATURDAY. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL
FOR DRIZZLE AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE TONIGHT AND INTO SAT
MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST THIS
MORNING ALONG WITH A FAIRLY ROBUST AREA OF WAA IN THE MID LEVELS.
AT THE SFC A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SHIFT TO THE
EAST OVER THE SRN GREAT LAKES AS A TROUGH SLIDES INTO ERN MT AND
NRN CO. THE UPPER RIDGE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO
DE- AMPLIFY AS IT TRACKS EWD TODAY...WITH THE GENERAL FLOW
BECOMING QUASI- ZONAL TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...AND THE WEAKENING TROUGH
ROTATING EWD OVER THE REGION.

THE STRONG WAA ALOFT WILL ACT TO CREATE A SHARP INVERSION OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA LATER TODAY THROUGH SAT MORNING. SHOULD SEE CLOUD
COVER CONTINUE TO STREAM IN FROM THE W/NW TODAY DUE TO WEAK MID
LEVEL F-GEN SETTING UP ALONG THE DAKOTAS/NRN MN REGION AND THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. THE BROAD LARGE SCALE FORCING FROM THIS
UPPER TROUGH WILL ACT TO PRODUCE LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHLAND TONIGHT AND SAT MORNING...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DZ
OR FZDZ. SHOULD BE GENERALLY FZDZ FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MOST
OF SAT MORNING...AND A CHANGEOVER TO ALL DZ IN THE LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED A MENTION OF A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SLEET DURING THE PERIOD WHEN THE PRECIP CHANGES OVER TO
LIQUID. WEAK RIDGING REGAINS A HOLD ON THE AREA BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY WITH QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED GOING INTO
THE EVENING.

TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ARE REACTING TO THE WAA/MIXING AND
APPROACHING CLOUD COVER FROM THE W/NW WITH A NOTICEABLE INCREASE IN
TEMPS BEING OBSERVED OVER NE MN. WILL SEE THE SAME TREND OCCUR
FURTHER TO THE EAST INTO NW WI THROUGH THE MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S TODAY...BUT NOT GET MUCH
WARMER THAN THAT DUE TO THE LIMITED AMT OF SUN UNDER THE ROBUST
CLOUD COVER.

THE CLOUD COVER WILL ALSO ACT TO KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED
TONIGHT. LOWS FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOWER
20S...BEFORE RISING ITO THE 30S OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND
SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION SATURDAY EVENING
WITH A SFC RIDGE OVER THE FA. GOOD SHOT OF WAA WITH H85 TEMPS
WARMING TO NEAR 0C ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO 5C ACROSS THE
SOUTH. EXPECT NO PCPN. AFTER 06Z...PCPN BEGINS TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
INTO THE FA AS A SFC LOW DEEPENS NEAR THE NW ND/CANADA BORDER
AREA. THE PCPN IS ON THE NOSE OF A LLJ LIFTING INTO NW WI WITH THE
WAA. MODELS OFFER VERY DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS AT THIS POINT WITH
REGARD TO QPF AND PTYPE. HAVE A MIX OF -RA/-FZRA AS SOUNDINGS FROM
THE DIFFERENT MODELS SUGGEST. THERE WILL BE NO ICE ACCUMULATION
WITH THESE DIFFERENCES. ON SUNDAY MORNING...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIVERGE WITH THE MASS FIELDS. HOWEVER...THEY AGREE THAT A DRY SLOT
IS WORKING INTO WESTERN MN AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHES THE MN/WI
BORDER BY 18Z. THE BULK OF THE PCPN WILL FALL IN THE VCNTY OF THE
FRONT. THERE WILL BE A MIX OF -FZRA/-SN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF
THE FA WITH -RA OVER THE E THANKS TO THE WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND CAA BEGINNING BEHIND THE FRONT. BY MID MORNING...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL HAVE WARMED ENOUGH FOR THE PCPN TO BE ALL
LIQUID. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE ECMWF. THE DRY SLOT MOVES OVER MUCH
OF THE FA SUNDAY NIGHT. HAVE LOWERED THE POPS CONSIDERABLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS FACTOR. -RA WILL OCCUR OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF
THE AREA WHERE THE WARMEST AIR IS LOCATED. FURTHER WWD A MIX OF
-FZRA/-SN IS EXPECTED AS THE COLUMN COOLS. LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...THE
SFC LOW IS LIFTING INTO NORTHERN LOWER MI WITH THE CLOSED UPPER
LOW MOVING INTO MN. CAA IS WELL UNDERWAY AND -SN WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WESTERN THIRD OFF THE FA WITH A -FZRA/-SN MIX ELSEWHERE
AS THE REMNANTS OF THE DRY SLOT REACH NW WI. VERY LITTLE ICE
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THIS EVENT. THE PCPN FINALLY
BECOMES ALL SNOW ON MONDAY AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS INTO NORTHERN
ONTARIO AND CAA COVERS THE AREA. HAVE A BLSN MENTION AS WELL WITH
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN THE VCNTY. THE SNOW DIMINISHES MONDAY
NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES AND LINGERS THROUGH TUESDAY. NEXT
ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS A
CLIPPER AFFECTS THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MORNING.
A TRANSITION TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE FOUND TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW
CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MN THIS MORNING...SPREADING OVER
LOCATIONS IN WIS AFTER 18Z. HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS AT ALL TERMINAL
AFTER 00Z AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. DUE TO THE SURGE OF
MOISTURE AND SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPS...THERE IS ALSO A SMALL
THREAT FOR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...MAINLY LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OF FZDZ OUT OF TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  24  23  35  28 /   0  10  10  10
INL  26  23  35  24 /   0  10  20  10
BRD  26  25  35  27 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  23  22  36  30 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  25  24  38  28 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ143>146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM CST
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ121-140>142-147-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 210547
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1147 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY CRASHING INTO THE NEGATIVE VALUES UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL
CLIMB THROUGH DAYBREAK.

AS OF 900 PM...LOW TEMPERATURES ALREADY OBSERVED THIS EVENING
INCLUDE KINL AT -11F, KHIB AT -9F, KHYR -7F, AND KDLH AT 4F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AT 330 PM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. ANY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WERE QUICKLY FALLING APART. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ARROWHEAD TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND. HAVE CUT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
BASED ON CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WIND. THINK TEMPS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO FALL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...ESPECIALLY IN NW WI
WHERE THEY WILL BE NEARER THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST. WAA
WILL ALREADY PUSH INTO THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE NE MN SIDE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPS
CLOSELY THOUGH AS WE MAY DROP EVEN FURTHER THAN THAT IN SPOTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY...AS
STRONG WAA PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
THE WAA COULD RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NW WI. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS THIS
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THROUGH THE PERIOD WE ARE WATCHING THE PHASING OF THE NORTH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND THE RESULTANT LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON SATURDAY THE RETREATING SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW OF
VERY WARM AIR WITH 8H TEMPS TEMP FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO A
STRONG S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SECTIONS....THE ARROWHEAD AND
WI...BUT...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW ZERO WHICH WILL RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.  BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEFINITE ICE IN THE COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA FROM ABOUT
WALKER TO INL...WHERE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN SNOW OVR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST...AND VERY COLD
AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW...AND WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
THE RAIN INTO SNOW.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING EAST WITH THE SFC
LOW...THE GFS MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE EURO. THIS SYSTEM WILL
STILL BEAR WATCHING.

MUCH COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS...MEANING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE WILL KICK IN AND
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MORNING.
A TRANSITION TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE FOUND TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW
CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MN THIS MORNING...SPREADING OVER
LOCATIONS IN WIS AFTER 18Z. HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS AT ALL TERMINAL
AFTER 00Z AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. DUE TO THE SURGE OF
MOISTURE AND SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPS...THERE IS ALSO A SMALL
THREAT FOR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...MAINLY LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OF FZDZ OUT OF TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -3  21  20  36 /   0   0  10  10
INL -10  24  21  35 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  -4  25  24  35 /   0   0  10  10
HYR -13  24  21  37 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  -6  25  22  39 /  30   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ143>146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ121-140>142-147-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 210547
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1147 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 900 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HAVE LOWERED MIN TEMPS OVERNIGHT AS LATEST OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY CRASHING INTO THE NEGATIVE VALUES UNDER THE
RIDGE AXIS. THE COLDEST READINGS WILL ONLY LAST FOR A FEW HOURS
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP AND TEMPERATURES BEGIN A GRADUAL
CLIMB THROUGH DAYBREAK.

AS OF 900 PM...LOW TEMPERATURES ALREADY OBSERVED THIS EVENING
INCLUDE KINL AT -11F, KHIB AT -9F, KHYR -7F, AND KDLH AT 4F.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AT 330 PM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. ANY SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WERE QUICKLY FALLING APART. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE
SINGLE DIGITS IN THE ARROWHEAD TO THE TEENS ELSEWHERE.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND. HAVE CUT TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS
BASED ON CLEAR SKIES AND DECREASING WIND. THINK TEMPS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO FALL INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO...ESPECIALLY IN NW WI
WHERE THEY WILL BE NEARER THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MIDWEST. WAA
WILL ALREADY PUSH INTO THE CWA AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE
NIGHT. AS A RESULT...HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE NE MN SIDE. WILL HAVE TO WATCH TEMPS
CLOSELY THOUGH AS WE MAY DROP EVEN FURTHER THAN THAT IN SPOTS.

CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND THICKEN THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY...AS
STRONG WAA PUSHES ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20S FOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
THE WAA COULD RESULT IN SOME SPOTTY MIXED PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN NW WI. WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS ACROSS THIS
AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

THROUGH THE PERIOD WE ARE WATCHING THE PHASING OF THE NORTH AND
SOUTHERN STREAM...AND THE RESULTANT LONGWAVE TROF THAT WILL AFFECT
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

ON SATURDAY THE RETREATING SFC HIGH WILL ALLOW A RETURN FLOW OF
VERY WARM AIR WITH 8H TEMPS TEMP FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION IN ADDITION TO A
STRONG S/WV MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.

VERY WARM TEMPERATURE PROFILES WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION AS RAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN EASTERN SECTIONS....THE ARROWHEAD AND
WI...BUT...AS THE SYSTEM NEARS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING SFC TEMPS WILL BE BELOW ZERO WHICH WILL RESULT IN FREEZING
RAIN. THE FREEZING RAIN WILL CHANGE TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY AS SFC TEMPS RISE ABOVE FREEZING.  BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE
DEFINITE ICE IN THE COLUMN ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AREA FROM ABOUT
WALKER TO INL...WHERE PCPN TYPE WILL REMAIN SNOW OVR THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

BY SUNDAY EVENING THE SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING EAST...AND VERY COLD
AIR WILL BE FILTERING IN BEHIND THE LOW...AND WILL QUICKLY CHANGE
THE RAIN INTO SNOW.

BOTH THE GFS AND THE ECMWF HAVE BEEN TRENDING EAST WITH THE SFC
LOW...THE GFS MUCH FARTHER EAST THAN THE EURO. THIS SYSTEM WILL
STILL BEAR WATCHING.

MUCH COLD AIR COMES IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM ON NORTH AND NORTHWEST
WINDS...MEANING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW MACHINE WILL KICK IN AND
CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...ALLOWING VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH MORNING.
A TRANSITION TO GUSTY SOUTH WINDS AND STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION
WILL BE FOUND TODAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING CLOUDS AND MOISTURE
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW
CLOUDS MOVE INTO NORTHEAST MN THIS MORNING...SPREADING OVER
LOCATIONS IN WIS AFTER 18Z. HAVE INTRODUCED LLWS AT ALL TERMINAL
AFTER 00Z AS WINDS ALOFT INCREASE TO 40-50 KT. DUE TO THE SURGE OF
MOISTURE AND SUB-FREEZING SFC TEMPS...THERE IS ALSO A SMALL
THREAT FOR VERY LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE...MAINLY LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OF FZDZ OUT OF TERMINALS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  -3  21  20  36 /   0   0  10  10
INL -10  24  21  35 /   0   0  10  10
BRD  -4  25  24  35 /   0   0  10  10
HYR -13  24  21  37 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  -6  25  22  39 /  30   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 4 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ143>146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
     LSZ121-140>142-147-148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GRANING
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GRANING








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