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000
FXUS63 KDLH 241243
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
743 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CUT BACK ON THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH AS MOST OF THE
WEBCAMS AND SFC OBS HAVE CONTINUED TO REPORT IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FROM THE TWIN PORTS ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE THROUGH 10 AM AT THIS POINT. MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED BEFORE
THEN THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD...SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI HAVE BEEN
BELOW 1/2 TO 1/4 MI THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
10 AM.

STRONG WAA IN THE MID LEVELS...COMBINED WITH A COOL AND MOIST
NEAR SFC LAYER IS CREATING A FAVORABLE INVERSION ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...CONDUCIVE FOR FOG FORMATION. THIS LAYER
OF CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MET WITH THE WARM AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DEEP MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION TODAY...BUT A THIN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS OVER N-CENTRAL WI MAY JUST END UP LIFTING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COULD KEEP TEMPS IN WI ON THE COOLER SIDE.
EVEN STILL...THIS BUBBLE OF ABNORMALLY WARM AIR...850MB TEMPS
+12-13 DEG C SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER A LARGE
SECTION OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH A FEW LOWER 70 READINGS NOT OF
THE QUESTION IN CENTRAL MN. THE OTHER CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE
AMT OF MIXING...WIND GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS
WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

ON SATURDAY A SHIFT IN THE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SW AND THE TROUGH SLIDES EWD TO THE
NORTH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND BL MIXING TRANSPORTS
30-40 MPH WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC. AS THE WINDS SHIFT A COOLER
AIR MASS ADVECTS IN AS WELL AND DROPS TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH...AND KEEPS TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS WELL WITH
SUSTAINED NW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A H85 RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY EVENING...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
THE SFC HIGH AND LOW DEW POINTS IN THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS CLOSE TO MAX/MEX GUIDANCE VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
20S...BUT COOLING TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED IF DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

A BROAD H85/SFC LOW POSITIONED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING H50
WAVE...TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM SLOWLY BECOMES A STACKED LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR
OUT...THE LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG
THE H85/SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY. WRAP AROUND PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE
AS THE STACKED LOW RETREATS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 732 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

LINGERING MORNING FOG WITH WILL BE FOUND AROUND KDLH AND KHYR.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A
COLD...BUT DRY...FRONT WILL QUICKLY SWEEP OVER THE REGION THIS
EVENING. THE DRY AIR MASS WILL LIMIT ANY LOW CLOUDS OR
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT FOR MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN...POSSIBLY IMPACTING KHYR...WHERE MVFR
CIGS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS EVENING. THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BRING A TRANSITION FROM SOUTHERLY WINDS TODAY...TO GUSTY
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS BY SATURDAY. WINDS ALOFT WILL INCREASE OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST AT 35-40 KT OVERNIGHT. LLWS MAY BE
POSSIBLE...DEPENDING ON NEAR SURFACE INVERSION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  46  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
INL  68  42  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  71  43  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  67  44  57  29 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  67  46  57  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-
     037.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 241153 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

CUT BACK ON THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO THE SOUTH AS MOST OF THE
WEBCAMS AND SFC OBS HAVE CONTINUED TO REPORT IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WILL KEEP THE ADVISORY GOING FROM THE TWIN PORTS ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE THROUGH 10 AM AT THIS POINT. MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED BEFORE
THEN THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD...SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI HAVE BEEN
BELOW 1/2 TO 1/4 MI THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
10 AM.

STRONG WAA IN THE MID LEVELS...COMBINED WITH A COOL AND MOIST
NEAR SFC LAYER IS CREATING A FAVORABLE INVERSION ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...CONDUCIVE FOR FOG FORMATION. THIS LAYER
OF CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MET WITH THE WARM AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DEEP MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION TODAY...BUT A THIN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS OVER N-CENTRAL WI MAY JUST END UP LIFTING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COULD KEEP TEMPS IN WI ON THE COOLER SIDE.
EVEN STILL...THIS BUBBLE OF ABNORMALLY WARM AIR...850MB TEMPS
+12-13 DEG C SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER A LARGE
SECTION OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH A FEW LOWER 70 READINGS NOT OF
THE QUESTION IN CENTRAL MN. THE OTHER CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE
AMT OF MIXING...WIND GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS
WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

ON SATURDAY A SHIFT IN THE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SW AND THE TROUGH SLIDES EWD TO THE
NORTH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND BL MIXING TRANSPORTS
30-40 MPH WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC. AS THE WINDS SHIFT A COOLER
AIR MASS ADVECTS IN AS WELL AND DROPS TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH...AND KEEPS TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS WELL WITH
SUSTAINED NW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A H85 RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY EVENING...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
THE SFC HIGH AND LOW DEW POINTS IN THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS CLOSE TO MAX/MEX GUIDANCE VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
20S...BUT COOLING TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED IF DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

A BROAD H85/SFC LOW POSITIONED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING H50
WAVE...TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM SLOWLY BECOMES A STACKED LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR
OUT...THE LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG
THE H85/SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY. WRAP AROUND PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE
AS THE STACKED LOW RETREATS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AFFECTING
KDLH...KHYR AND KHIB WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEARING TO VFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND
16Z FRIDAY. KBRD AND KINL MAY ALSO GET SOME FOG...BUT MORE PATCHY
IN NATURE AND SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  46  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
INL  68  42  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  71  43  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  67  44  57  29 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  67  46  57  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ020-021-
     037.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BJT
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 240832
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
332 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND TOMORROW...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS SATURDAY ARE THE MAIN
CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM.

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING. VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE
ARROWHEAD...SWD THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND INTO NW WI HAVE BEEN
BELOW 1/2 TO 1/4 MI THIS MORNING AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
10 AM.

STRONG WAA IN THE MID LEVELS...COMBINED WITH A COOL AND MOIST
NEAR SFC LAYER IS CREATING A FAVORABLE INVERSION ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THIS MORNING...CONDUCIVE FOR FOG FORMATION. THIS LAYER
OF CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE MET WITH THE WARM AND SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR
FROM THE WEST LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH DEEP MIXING TO SCOUR OUT THE LOW CLOUDS OVER THE
ENTIRE REGION TODAY...BUT A THIN LAYER OF HIGH CLOUDS MAY
PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE LOW
CLOUDS OVER N-CENTRAL WI MAY JUST END UP LIFTING AND PERSISTING
THROUGH THE DAY. THIS COULD KEEP TEMPS IN WI ON THE COOLER SIDE.
EVEN STILL...THIS BUBBLE OF ABNORMALLY WARM AIR...850MB TEMPS
+12-13 DEG C SHOULD BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC TO PRODUCE
AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S OVER A LARGE
SECTION OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH A FEW LOWER 70 READINGS NOT OF
THE QUESTION IN CENTRAL MN. THE OTHER CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SW WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. DEPENDING ON THE
AMT OF MIXING...WIND GUSTS COULD REACH INTO THE 20 TO 25 MPH
RANGE.

CONDITIONS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN MILD WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY
DROPPING INTO THE 40S. THE QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST TONIGHT AS
WELL WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS.

ON SATURDAY A SHIFT IN THE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR WITH THE PASSAGE
OF A COLD FRONT THROUGH MANITOBA AND WRN ONTARIO. AS THE HIGH
BUILDS IN ACROSS THE SW AND THE TROUGH SLIDES EWD TO THE
NORTH...THE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NW AND INCREASE THROUGH THE
DAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AND BL MIXING TRANSPORTS
30-40 MPH WINDS ALOFT DOWN TO THE SFC. AS THE WINDS SHIFT A COOLER
AIR MASS ADVECTS IN AS WELL AND DROPS TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER
40S AND LOWER 50S TO THE NORTH...AND KEEPS TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG AS WELL WITH
SUSTAINED NW WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A H85 RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY EVENING...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EAST OVER THE NORTHLAND THROUGH SUNDAY. THE COMBINATION OF
THE SFC HIGH AND LOW DEW POINTS IN THE 20S SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING. HAVE LOWERED
TEMPS CLOSE TO MAX/MEX GUIDANCE VALUES...GENERALLY IN THE UPPER
20S...BUT COOLING TREND MAY NEED TO BE CONTINUED IF DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER.

A BROAD H85/SFC LOW POSITIONED AHEAD OF A DEEPENING H50
WAVE...TRANSLATES ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH H85 TEMPS WARMING INTO THE LOW TEENS ACROSS THE
SRN ZONES BY SUNDAY EVENING. THE SYSTEM SLOWLY BECOMES A STACKED LOW
CENTERED OVER NRN MINNESOTA/ONTARIO BY MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY.
ALTHOUGH MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR
OUT...THE LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS ALONG
THE H85/SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY EVENING
INTO MONDAY. WRAP AROUND PRECIP AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL ARRIVE
AS THE STACKED LOW RETREATS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/ONTARIO THROUGH
MID-WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AFFECTING
KDLH...KHYR AND KHIB WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEARING TO VFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND
16Z FRIDAY. KBRD AND KINL MAY ALSO GET SOME FOG...BUT MORE PATCHY
IN NATURE AND SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  67  46  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
INL  68  42  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  71  43  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  67  44  57  29 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  67  46  57  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ011-012-
     019>021-037-038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 240534
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GRAND MARAIS HAS MAINTAINED DENSE FOG SINCE EARLIER THIS
EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL AREAS ARE ALSO REPORTING DENSE FOG.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF LESS THAN 3 DEGREES AS OF 02Z ARE A GOOD
INDICATOR OF THE LOCATIONS WHERE DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED...OR
HAS ALREADY FORMED. PLUS...WE WILL HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND WEAK PRESSURE RISES. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
TO A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THE REST OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP CLOUD TRENDS SO FAR
THIS EVENING. WILL BE MONITORING FOR UPDATES TO DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THIS EVENING...AS GRAND MARAIS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING DENSE FOG.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL CLEAR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT
IT MAY NOT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

AVIATION UPDATE BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN CLOUD COVERAGE/FOG TONIGHT IN NW WI.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS IS
ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER MOVING EAST. BASED ON THE SREF/DLHWRF...
THIS EDGE SHOULD CLEAR NW WI BY 06Z. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG IN NW WI. WITH THE MOISTURE LEFTOVER
FROM THE EARLIER RAINS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG
FORMATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME OF THE FOG
COULD BE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD SO WILL PUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FROM 06Z-15Z FOR THE SOUTHERN NW WI COUNTIES. FOR
FRIDAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
FA FROM THE W ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SLIP OFF TO THE E AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE UNDER A
RETURN FLOW/WAA PATTERN. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF AND HAVE NO POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH ITS STRONG SFC LOW/CYCLOGENESIS PRACTICALLY
ON TOP OF THE FA. GEM/ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THERE MASS FIELDS.
USED A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND...LEANING TOWARDS THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR POPS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO WARRANT ADDING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA...AFFECTING
KDLH...KHYR AND KHIB WITH IFR TO LIFR CIGS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH CLEARING TO VFR EXPECTED BETWEEN 14Z AND
16Z FRIDAY. KBRD AND KINL MAY ALSO GET SOME FOG...BUT MORE PATCHY
IN NATURE AND SHOULD BE NO WORSE THAN MVFR. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10KTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  57  36  53 /   0   0   0   0
INL  42  54  32  52 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  44  58  35  58 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  45  58  35  57 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  46  59  37  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ011-012-
     019>021-037-038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ002>004-
     006>009.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE










000
FXUS63 KDLH 240312
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1012 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GRAND MARAIS HAS MAINTAINED DENSE FOG SINCE EARLIER THIS
EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL AREAS ARE ALSO REPORTING DENSE FOG.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF LESS THAN 3 DEGREES AS OF 02Z ARE A GOOD
INDICATOR OF THE LOCATIONS WHERE DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED...OR
HAS ALREADY FORMED. PLUS...WE WILL HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND WEAK PRESSURE RISES. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
TO A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THE REST OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP CLOUD TRENDS SO FAR
THIS EVENING. WILL BE MONITORING FOR UPDATES TO DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THIS EVENING...AS GRAND MARAIS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING DENSE FOG.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL CLEAR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT
IT MAY NOT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

AVIATION UPDATE BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN CLOUD COVERAGE/FOG TONIGHT IN NW WI.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS IS
ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER MOVING EAST. BASED ON THE SREF/DLHWRF...
THIS EDGE SHOULD CLEAR NW WI BY 06Z. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG IN NW WI. WITH THE MOISTURE LEFTOVER
FROM THE EARLIER RAINS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG
FORMATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME OF THE FOG
COULD BE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD SO WILL PUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FROM 06Z-15Z FOR THE SOUTHERN NW WI COUNTIES. FOR
FRIDAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
FA FROM THE W ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SLIP OFF TO THE E AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE UNDER A
RETURN FLOW/WAA PATTERN. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF AND HAVE NO POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH ITS STRONG SFC LOW/CYCLOGENESIS PRACTICALLY
ON TOP OF THE FA. GEM/ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THERE MASS FIELDS.
USED A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND...LEANING TOWARDS THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR POPS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO WARRANT ADDING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

KHYR ONLY LOCATION THAT REMAINS MVFR THIS EVENING AS OF TAF
ISSUANCE TIME...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. REMAINING SITES ARE ALREADY VFR. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR KHYR AND KDLH TONIGHT AROUND 05Z...AND VISIBILITIES
MAY DROP TO IFR OR LIFR FOR BOTH LOCATIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. KHIB ALSO AT RISK AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH THERE...BUT
THEY SHOULD DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN. KINL
AND KBRD NOT EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE FOG OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY...AND THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH REMAINDER
OF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  67  46  57 /   0   0   0   0
INL  41  69  42  54 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  44  68  44  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  43  66  45  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  44  68  46  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-
     037-038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ001.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ002>004-006>009.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 240312
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1012 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. GRAND MARAIS HAS MAINTAINED DENSE FOG SINCE EARLIER THIS
EVENING...AND ADDITIONAL AREAS ARE ALSO REPORTING DENSE FOG.
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS OF LESS THAN 3 DEGREES AS OF 02Z ARE A GOOD
INDICATOR OF THE LOCATIONS WHERE DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED...OR
HAS ALREADY FORMED. PLUS...WE WILL HAVE VERY LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
AND WEAK PRESSURE RISES. THUS...HAVE EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
TO A LARGE PORTION OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND THE REST OF
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP CLOUD TRENDS SO FAR
THIS EVENING. WILL BE MONITORING FOR UPDATES TO DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THIS EVENING...AS GRAND MARAIS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING DENSE FOG.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL CLEAR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT
IT MAY NOT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

AVIATION UPDATE BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN CLOUD COVERAGE/FOG TONIGHT IN NW WI.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS IS
ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER MOVING EAST. BASED ON THE SREF/DLHWRF...
THIS EDGE SHOULD CLEAR NW WI BY 06Z. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG IN NW WI. WITH THE MOISTURE LEFTOVER
FROM THE EARLIER RAINS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG
FORMATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME OF THE FOG
COULD BE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD SO WILL PUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FROM 06Z-15Z FOR THE SOUTHERN NW WI COUNTIES. FOR
FRIDAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
FA FROM THE W ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SLIP OFF TO THE E AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE UNDER A
RETURN FLOW/WAA PATTERN. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF AND HAVE NO POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH ITS STRONG SFC LOW/CYCLOGENESIS PRACTICALLY
ON TOP OF THE FA. GEM/ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THERE MASS FIELDS.
USED A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND...LEANING TOWARDS THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR POPS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO WARRANT ADDING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

KHYR ONLY LOCATION THAT REMAINS MVFR THIS EVENING AS OF TAF
ISSUANCE TIME...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. REMAINING SITES ARE ALREADY VFR. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR KHYR AND KDLH TONIGHT AROUND 05Z...AND VISIBILITIES
MAY DROP TO IFR OR LIFR FOR BOTH LOCATIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. KHIB ALSO AT RISK AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH THERE...BUT
THEY SHOULD DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN. KINL
AND KBRD NOT EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE FOG OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY...AND THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH REMAINDER
OF PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  67  46  57 /   0   0   0   0
INL  41  69  42  54 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  44  68  44  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  43  66  45  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  44  68  46  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-
     037-038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ001.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ002>004-006>009.

LS...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 232343
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

HAVE SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO FRESHEN UP CLOUD TRENDS SO FAR
THIS EVENING. WILL BE MONITORING FOR UPDATES TO DENSE FOG ADVISORY
THIS EVENING...AS GRAND MARAIS IS CURRENTLY REPORTING DENSE FOG.
INDICATIONS ARE THAT THIS WILL CLEAR IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO...BUT
IT MAY NOT AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

AVIATION UPDATE BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN CLOUD COVERAGE/FOG TONIGHT IN NW WI.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS IS
ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER MOVING EAST. BASED ON THE SREF/DLHWRF...
THIS EDGE SHOULD CLEAR NW WI BY 06Z. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG IN NW WI. WITH THE MOISTURE LEFTOVER
FROM THE EARLIER RAINS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG
FORMATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME OF THE FOG
COULD BE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD SO WILL PUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FROM 06Z-15Z FOR THE SOUTHERN NW WI COUNTIES. FOR
FRIDAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
FA FROM THE W ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SLIP OFF TO THE E AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE UNDER A
RETURN FLOW/WAA PATTERN. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF AND HAVE NO POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH ITS STRONG SFC LOW/CYCLOGENESIS PRACTICALLY
ON TOP OF THE FA. GEM/ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THERE MASS FIELDS.
USED A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND...LEANING TOWARDS THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR POPS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO WARRANT ADDING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

KHYR ONLY LOCATION THAT REMAINS MVFR THIS EVENING AS OF TAF
ISSUANCE TIME...BUT IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO VFR DURING THE NEXT
HOUR OR SO. REMAINING SITES ARE ALREADY VFR. FOG IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP FOR KHYR AND KDLH TONIGHT AROUND 05Z...AND VISIBILITIES
MAY DROP TO IFR OR LIFR FOR BOTH LOCATIONS FOR A FEW HOURS
OVERNIGHT. KHIB ALSO AT RISK AS DEWPOINTS REMAIN HIGH THERE...BUT
THEY SHOULD DROP OFF THIS EVENING AND FOG IS NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED. WILL BE MONITORING CLOSELY AND MAY NEED TO ADD IN. KINL
AND KBRD NOT EXPECTED TO EXPERIENCE FOG OVERNIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
TO RETURN ABOUT 15Z FRIDAY...AND THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH REMAINDER
OF PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  67  46  57 /   0   0   0   0
INL  42  69  42  54 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  44  68  44  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  43  66  45  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  44  68  46  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...LE












000
FXUS63 KDLH 232022
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHORT TERM CONCERN CLOUD COVERAGE/FOG TONIGHT IN NW WI.

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES THE RAIN FROM EARLIER TODAY HAS
MOVED EAST OF THE AREA. THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CLOUDINESS IS
ALONG THE MN/WI BORDER MOVING EAST. BASED ON THE SREF/DLHWRF...
THIS EDGE SHOULD CLEAR NW WI BY 06Z. THE NEXT CONCERN IS THE
POSSIBLE FORMATION OF FOG IN NW WI. WITH THE MOISTURE LEFTOVER
FROM THE EARLIER RAINS...CLEAR SKIES...AND LIGHT WINDS...FOG
FORMATION WILL BE LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF NW WI. SOME OF THE FOG
COULD BE DENSE AND WIDESPREAD SO WILL PUT A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN
EFFECT FROM 06Z-15Z FOR THE SOUTHERN NW WI COUNTIES. FOR
FRIDAY...SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY WITH TEMPS IN THE
MIDDLE 60S TO NEAR 70.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE FA FRIDAY NIGHT. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
FOLLOWS INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS THE ATMOSPHERE
IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE
FA FROM THE W ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...THE RIDGE
BEGINS TO SLIP OFF TO THE E AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO ORGANIZE IN
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FA WILL BE UNDER A
RETURN FLOW/WAA PATTERN. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA...BUT PCPN SHOULD HOLD OFF AND HAVE NO POPS. MODEL DIFFERENCES
BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE GFS APPEARS
TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH ITS STRONG SFC LOW/CYCLOGENESIS PRACTICALLY
ON TOP OF THE FA. GEM/ECMWF ARE MUCH WEAKER WITH THERE MASS FIELDS.
USED A CONSENSUS MODEL BLEND...LEANING TOWARDS THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR POPS. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER A
PORTION OF THE SOUTHERN FA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY TO WARRANT ADDING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IFR CIGS/VSBY AT HYR UNTIL 22Z THEN VFR. BRING THE BR AND
MVFR/ISOLD IFR VSBYS TO HYR FROM 03Z TO 15Z. IFR CIG AT DLH UNTIL
20Z THEN VFR. BROUGHT SOME BR TO DLH WITH MVFR VSBY FROM 06Z TO
14Z. VFR ELSEWHERE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  45  67  46  57 /   0   0   0   0
INL  42  69  42  54 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  44  68  44  58 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  43  66  45  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  44  68  46  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR WIZ006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF









000
FXUS63 KDLH 231717
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1217 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED FOR FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE AND BACKING OFF OF THE PRECIP
ENDING IN NW WI. THE CLEARING IN THE WEST IS ON TARGET.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NW
WI DUE TO PRESENT TRENDS. ALSO...DELAYED CLEARING BY AN HOUR BASED
ON TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING...
TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 DEG WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
N-S FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH SRN MN...WITH A EWD TRACK AND AREAS OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN
IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM INL TO LAKE MILLE LACS AND SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE E/NE. THIS CORRIDOR OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE TWIN PORTS BETWEEN 4 AND 8 AM THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS NW/N-CNTRL WI. RAINFALL AMTS WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE EFFECT OF
RAIN FALLING INTO THE SFC LAYER WILL SATURATE CONDITIONS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PATCHY FOG BEHIND THE RAIN THIS MORNING. WARM ENOUGH AIR
ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG.

RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS TO ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY STEEP 1000-850MB LAPSE
RATES WILL MIX THIS DRY AIR DOWN TO THE SFC AND WORK IN UNISON WITH
ROBUST WAA IN THE LAYER ALOFT TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S OVER MUCH OF NE MN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
INHIBIT THE AMT OF HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE +12 DEG C AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT TONIGHT WILL CREATE A
VERY STRONG INVERSION IN THE BL...AND AS SFC TEMPS COOL INTO THE
40S THE THREAT FOR FOG ARRIVES AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 3-6 MPH FROM THE SSW AND COULD INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DUE TO MIXING.

FRIDAY WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S...WITH A FEW 70 DEG READINGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER CENTRAL MN. THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IFR CIGS/VSBY AT HYR UNTIL 22Z THEN VFR. BRING THE BR AND
MVFR/ISOLD IFR VSBYS TO HYR FROM 03Z TO 15Z. IFR CIG AT DLH UNTIL
20Z THEN VFR. BROUGHT SOME BR TO DLH WITH MVFR VSBY FROM 06Z TO
14Z. VFR ELSEWHERE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  44  66  44 /  50   0   0   0
INL  63  43  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  65  43  68  42 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  57  41  66  43 /  50   0   0   0
ASX  56  42  67  44 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 231555
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1055 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1055 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED FOR FOG ALONG THE NORTHSHORE AND BACKING OFF OF THE PRECIP
ENDING IN NW WI. THE CLEARING IN THE WEST IS ON TARGET.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NW
WI DUE TO PRESENT TRENDS. ALSO...DELAYED CLEARING BY AN HOUR BASED
ON TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING...
TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 DEG WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
N-S FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH SRN MN...WITH A EWD TRACK AND AREAS OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN
IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM INL TO LAKE MILLE LACS AND SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE E/NE. THIS CORRIDOR OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE TWIN PORTS BETWEEN 4 AND 8 AM THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS NW/N-CNTRL WI. RAINFALL AMTS WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE EFFECT OF
RAIN FALLING INTO THE SFC LAYER WILL SATURATE CONDITIONS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PATCHY FOG BEHIND THE RAIN THIS MORNING. WARM ENOUGH AIR
ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG.

RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS TO ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY STEEP 1000-850MB LAPSE
RATES WILL MIX THIS DRY AIR DOWN TO THE SFC AND WORK IN UNISON WITH
ROBUST WAA IN THE LAYER ALOFT TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S OVER MUCH OF NE MN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
INHIBIT THE AMT OF HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE +12 DEG C AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT TONIGHT WILL CREATE A
VERY STRONG INVERSION IN THE BL...AND AS SFC TEMPS COOL INTO THE
40S THE THREAT FOR FOG ARRIVES AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 3-6 MPH FROM THE SSW AND COULD INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DUE TO MIXING.

FRIDAY WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S...WITH A FEW 70 DEG READINGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER CENTRAL MN. THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTRN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IFR CEILINGS WITH FOG WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE MINNESOTA ZONES THROUGH 15Z. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AND BRING CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  44  66  44 /  50   0   0   0
INL  63  43  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  65  43  68  42 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  57  41  66  43 /  50   0   0   0
ASX  56  42  67  44 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING









000
FXUS63 KDLH 231415
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
915 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 915 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

UPDATED TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NW
WI DUE TO PRESENT TRENDS. ALSO...DELAYED CLEARING BY AN HOUR BASED
ON TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING...
TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 DEG WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
N-S FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH SRN MN...WITH A EWD TRACK AND AREAS OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN
IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM INL TO LAKE MILLE LACS AND SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE E/NE. THIS CORRIDOR OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE TWIN PORTS BETWEEN 4 AND 8 AM THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS NW/N-CNTRL WI. RAINFALL AMTS WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE EFFECT OF
RAIN FALLING INTO THE SFC LAYER WILL SATURATE CONDITIONS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PATCHY FOG BEHIND THE RAIN THIS MORNING. WARM ENOUGH AIR
ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG.

RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS TO ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY STEEP 1000-850MB LAPSE
RATES WILL MIX THIS DRY AIR DOWN TO THE SFC AND WORK IN UNISON WITH
ROBUST WAA IN THE LAYER ALOFT TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S OVER MUCH OF NE MN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
INHIBIT THE AMT OF HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE +12 DEG C AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT TONIGHT WILL CREATE A
VERY STRONG INVERSION IN THE BL...AND AS SFC TEMPS COOL INTO THE
40S THE THREAT FOR FOG ARRIVES AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 3-6 MPH FROM THE SSW AND COULD INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DUE TO MIXING.

FRIDAY WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S...WITH A FEW 70 DEG READINGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER CENTRAL MN. THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTRN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IFR CEILINGS WITH FOG WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE MINNESOTA ZONES THROUGH 15Z. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AND BRING CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  44  66  44 /  50   0   0   0
INL  63  43  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  65  43  68  42 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  57  41  66  43 /  50   0   0   0
ASX  56  42  67  44 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 231159
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
659 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING...
TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 DEG WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
N-S FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH SRN MN...WITH A EWD TRACK AND AREAS OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN
IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM INL TO LAKE MILLE LACS AND SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE E/NE. THIS CORRIDOR OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE TWIN PORTS BETWEEN 4 AND 8 AM THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS NW/N-CNTRL WI. RAINFALL AMTS WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE EFFECT OF
RAIN FALLING INTO THE SFC LAYER WILL SATURATE CONDITIONS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PATCHY FOG BEHIND THE RAIN THIS MORNING. WARM ENOUGH AIR
ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG.

RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS TO ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY STEEP 1000-850MB LAPSE
RATES WILL MIX THIS DRY AIR DOWN TO THE SFC AND WORK IN UNISON WITH
ROBUST WAA IN THE LAYER ALOFT TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S OVER MUCH OF NE MN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
INHIBIT THE AMT OF HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE +12 DEG C AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT TONIGHT WILL CREATE A
VERY STRONG INVERSION IN THE BL...AND AS SFC TEMPS COOL INTO THE
40S THE THREAT FOR FOG ARRIVES AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 3-6 MPH FROM THE SSW AND COULD INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DUE TO MIXING.

FRIDAY WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S...WITH A FEW 70 DEG READINGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER CENTRAL MN. THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTRN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 700 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. IFR CEILINGS WITH FOG WILL BE FOUND
OVER THE MINNESOTA ZONES THROUGH 15Z. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST AND BRING CLEARING SKIES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  44  66  44 /  50   0   0   0
INL  63  43  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  65  43  68  42 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  57  41  66  43 /  50   0   0   0
ASX  56  42  67  44 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 230837
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE RAIN
SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS MORNING WITH PATCHY FOG
ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE RAIN THROUGH THE MID MORNING...
TEMPERATURES 4 TO 8 DEG WARMER THAN YESTERDAY THIS AFTERNOON...AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

UPPER TROUGH AND NEARLY CO-LOCATED SFC COLD FRONT CURRENTLY SITUATED
N-S FROM SRN MANITOBA THROUGH SRN MN...WITH A EWD TRACK AND AREAS OF
RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE BAND OF HEAVIEST RAIN
IS CURRENTLY ALIGNED FROM INL TO LAKE MILLE LACS AND SLOWLY
TRANSITIONING TO THE E/NE. THIS CORRIDOR OF RAIN WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE TWIN PORTS BETWEEN 4 AND 8 AM THIS MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
THROUGH THE ARROWHEAD AND ACROSS NW/N-CNTRL WI. RAINFALL AMTS WILL
LIKELY BE LIMITED TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE EFFECT OF
RAIN FALLING INTO THE SFC LAYER WILL SATURATE CONDITIONS ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE PATCHY FOG BEHIND THE RAIN THIS MORNING. WARM ENOUGH AIR
ALOFT AND LIGHT WINDS AT THE SFC WILL ALLOW FOR FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR FOG.

RIDGING ALOFT AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE EXITING FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS TO ALLOW
CONDITIONS TO DRY OUT THIS AFTERNOON. FAIRLY STEEP 1000-850MB LAPSE
RATES WILL MIX THIS DRY AIR DOWN TO THE SFC AND WORK IN UNISON WITH
ROBUST WAA IN THE LAYER ALOFT TO PRODUCE HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
60S OVER MUCH OF NE MN. SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS WILL EXIST
FURTHER TO THE EAST WHERE CLOUD COVER INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON WILL
INHIBIT THE AMT OF HEATING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO
DOMINATE THE REGION TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THE +12 DEG C AIR ADVECTING IN ALOFT TONIGHT WILL CREATE A
VERY STRONG INVERSION IN THE BL...AND AS SFC TEMPS COOL INTO THE
40S THE THREAT FOR FOG ARRIVES AGAIN TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AROUND 3-6 MPH FROM THE SSW AND COULD INHIBIT THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG DUE TO MIXING.

FRIDAY WILL BE A VERY PLEASANT DAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS IN THE SKY AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S...WITH A FEW 70 DEG READINGS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION OVER CENTRAL MN. THE QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTRN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY EVENING) ISSUED
AT 337 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL BRING RAIN SHOWERS AND
PREVAILING MVFR CIGS/VSBYS. A FEW HOUR WINDOW OF IFR CONDITIONS AND
FOG WILL BE FOUND WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY...MAINLY AFTER 14Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  44  66  44 /  20   0   0   0
INL  63  43  67  41 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  65  43  68  42 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  57  41  66  43 /  50   0   0   0
ASX  56  42  67  44 /  60   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING









000
FXUS63 KDLH 230259
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
959 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 952 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO THE ZONES/GRIDS FOR THE REST
OF THE NIGHT. EARLIER THIS EVENING...ENDED UP ADDING AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION AT THE HEAD OF THE LAKES AREA...AS A SMALL
LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVED FROM FAR EC MN INTO THE SW AREA OF THE
TWIN PORTS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME NUMEROUS FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
NIGHT WEARS ON. ONCE THE SHOWERS END IN THE WEST DURING THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE NIGHT...WE SHOULD SEE SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE AREA
OF PARTIAL CLEARING LATER TONIGHT. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES
OVERNIGHT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM ADVECTION REGIME UNDERWAY AS APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A RATHER TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT
EXISTS WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WITH MAJORITY OF PRECIP CONFINED
TO CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ACTUAL FRONT/WINDSHIFT. STRONGEST
MSTR TRANSPORT IS OCCURRING AT 85H OVER WRN CWA ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY
MILD MID LVL TEMPS ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY STABLE. A
DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION IS NOW APPEARING ON 88D WEST OF SWRN
CWA NEAR OTTER TAIL AND BECKER COUNTIES. MAY AMEND FCST BEFORE
ISSUANCE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IF LTG STRIKES MATERIALIZE
WITHIN NEW DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF MID LVL COOLING AND INCREASED 70H MSTR TRANSPORT. MANY LOCATIONS
OVER WRN/CTRL CWA REPORTING GUSTS TO 25/30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TONIGHT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TO WRN MN BY DAYBREAK
WITH ASSOCIATED SFC BDRY ADVANCING TO CTRL CWA. MAIN PERIOD OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR NEAR FRONTAL BDRY...00Z-06Z OVER WRN CWA...06Z-12Z
OVER CTRL CWA...AND 09Z-15Z OVER ERN CWA. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LIMITED BASED ON LATEST FCST OF MUCAPE/SHEAR BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES IF INGREDIENTS INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE.

TOMORROW...FRONTAL BDRY WILL MOVE EAST OF CWA AND SIGNIFICANT
WARMING SHOULD OCCUR AS SUNSHINE RETURNS TO MOST OF THE MN ZONES.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER WISC ZONES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WAA BEHIND IT. A SFC TROF IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FOLLOW ON FRIDAY
AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE FA FROM THE W ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THE FA UNDER
WAA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NEWD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT
OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES REVEAL
THEMSELVES IN THE HANDLING OF PCPN AND QPF AMOUNTS. ECMWF WITH THE
STRONGER SFC LOW WHILE GEM/GFS ARE WEAKER AND THE GFS WITH THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF. REGARDLESS...HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FA DUE TO TIMING. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE GEM THE FASTEST WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROF AND
ECMWF/GFS SLOWER. MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SET OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS WHICH
WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
ON THURSDAY. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD ALSO PRECEDE THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE KDLH AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AND
VSBYS COULD VERY WELL SETTLE INTO THE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEFLY INTO
THE IFR RANGE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING IS
INDICATING THAT THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP IN
PLACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY
ON THURSDAY...TO VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  60  44  63 /  80  40  10   0
INL  47  61  42  64 /  70  10  10   0
BRD  47  65  43  68 /  80   0   0   0
HYR  45  55  41  65 /  80  60  10   0
ASX  45  55  42  64 /  70  70  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 222348
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
648 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM ADVECTION REGIME UNDERWAY AS APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A RATHER TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT
EXISTS WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WITH MAJORITY OF PRECIP CONFINED
TO CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ACTUAL FRONT/WINDSHIFT. STRONGEST
MSTR TRANSPORT IS OCCURRING AT 85H OVER WRN CWA ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY
MILD MID LVL TEMPS ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY STABLE. A
DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION IS NOW APPEARING ON 88D WEST OF SWRN
CWA NEAR OTTER TAIL AND BECKER COUNTIES. MAY AMEND FCST BEFORE
ISSUANCE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IF LTG STRIKES MATERIALIZE
WITHIN NEW DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF MID LVL COOLING AND INCREASED 70H MSTR TRANSPORT. MANY LOCATIONS
OVER WRN/CTRL CWA REPORTING GUSTS TO 25/30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TONIGHT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TO WRN MN BY DAYBREAK
WITH ASSOCIATED SFC BDRY ADVANCING TO CTRL CWA. MAIN PERIOD OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR NEAR FRONTAL BDRY...00Z-06Z OVER WRN CWA...06Z-12Z
OVER CTRL CWA...AND 09Z-15Z OVER ERN CWA. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LIMITED BASED ON LATEST FCST OF MUCAPE/SHEAR BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES IF INGREDIENTS INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE.

TOMORROW...FRONTAL BDRY WILL MOVE EAST OF CWA AND SIGNIFICANT
WARMING SHOULD OCCUR AS SUNSHINE RETURNS TO MOST OF THE MN ZONES.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER WISC ZONES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WAA BEHIND IT. A SFC TROF IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FOLLOW ON FRIDAY
AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE FA FROM THE W ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THE FA UNDER
WAA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NEWD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT
OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES REVEAL
THEMSELVES IN THE HANDLING OF PCPN AND QPF AMOUNTS. ECMWF WITH THE
STRONGER SFC LOW WHILE GEM/GFS ARE WEAKER AND THE GFS WITH THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF. REGARDLESS...HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FA DUE TO TIMING. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE GEM THE FASTEST WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROF AND
ECMWF/GFS SLOWER. MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SET OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS WHICH
WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
ON THURSDAY. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD ALSO PRECEDE THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE KDLH AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AND
VSBYS COULD VERY WELL SETTLE INTO THE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEFLY INTO
THE IFR RANGE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING IS
INDICATING THAT THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP IN
PLACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY
ON THURSDAY...TO VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  60  44  63 /  70  20  10   0
INL  47  61  42  64 /  70  10  10   0
BRD  47  65  43  68 /  70   0   0   0
HYR  45  55  41  65 /  70  50  10   0
ASX  45  55  42  64 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 222348
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
648 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM ADVECTION REGIME UNDERWAY AS APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A RATHER TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT
EXISTS WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WITH MAJORITY OF PRECIP CONFINED
TO CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ACTUAL FRONT/WINDSHIFT. STRONGEST
MSTR TRANSPORT IS OCCURRING AT 85H OVER WRN CWA ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY
MILD MID LVL TEMPS ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY STABLE. A
DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION IS NOW APPEARING ON 88D WEST OF SWRN
CWA NEAR OTTER TAIL AND BECKER COUNTIES. MAY AMEND FCST BEFORE
ISSUANCE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IF LTG STRIKES MATERIALIZE
WITHIN NEW DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF MID LVL COOLING AND INCREASED 70H MSTR TRANSPORT. MANY LOCATIONS
OVER WRN/CTRL CWA REPORTING GUSTS TO 25/30 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TONIGHT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TO WRN MN BY DAYBREAK
WITH ASSOCIATED SFC BDRY ADVANCING TO CTRL CWA. MAIN PERIOD OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR NEAR FRONTAL BDRY...00Z-06Z OVER WRN CWA...06Z-12Z
OVER CTRL CWA...AND 09Z-15Z OVER ERN CWA. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LIMITED BASED ON LATEST FCST OF MUCAPE/SHEAR BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES IF INGREDIENTS INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE.

TOMORROW...FRONTAL BDRY WILL MOVE EAST OF CWA AND SIGNIFICANT
WARMING SHOULD OCCUR AS SUNSHINE RETURNS TO MOST OF THE MN ZONES.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER WISC ZONES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WAA BEHIND IT. A SFC TROF IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FOLLOW ON FRIDAY
AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE FA FROM THE W ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THE FA UNDER
WAA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NEWD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT
OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES REVEAL
THEMSELVES IN THE HANDLING OF PCPN AND QPF AMOUNTS. ECMWF WITH THE
STRONGER SFC LOW WHILE GEM/GFS ARE WEAKER AND THE GFS WITH THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF. REGARDLESS...HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FA DUE TO TIMING. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE GEM THE FASTEST WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROF AND
ECMWF/GFS SLOWER. MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SET OFF AN AREA OF SHOWERS WHICH
WILL SWEEP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
ON THURSDAY. A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD ALSO PRECEDE THE
FRONT...ESPECIALLY IN THE KDLH AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. CIGS AND
VSBYS COULD VERY WELL SETTLE INTO THE MVFR OR EVEN BRIEFLY INTO
THE IFR RANGE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELING IS
INDICATING THAT THE LOWER CIGS/VSBYS WILL ESSENTIALLY DEVELOP IN
PLACE AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE CONSIDERABLY
ON THURSDAY...TO VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  60  44  63 /  70  20  10   0
INL  47  61  42  64 /  70  10  10   0
BRD  47  65  43  68 /  70   0   0   0
HYR  45  55  41  65 /  70  50  10   0
ASX  45  55  42  64 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 221953
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
253 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WARM ADVECTION REGIME UNDERWAY AS APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM MAKES
ITS WAY ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. A RATHER TIGHT PWAT GRADIENT
EXISTS WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM WITH MAJORITY OF PRECIP CONFINED
TO CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH ACTUAL FRONT/WINDSHIFT. STRONGEST
MSTR TRANSPORT IS OCCURRING AT 85H OVER WRN CWA ALTHOUGH RELATIVELY
MILD MID LVL TEMPS ARE KEEPING CONDITIONS TEMPORARILY STABLE. A
DEVELOPING LINE OF CONVECTION IS NOW APPEARING ON 88D WEST OF SWRN
CWA NEAR OTTER TAIL AND BECKER COUNTIES. MAY AMEND FCST BEFORE
ISSUANCE TO INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER IF LTG STRIKES MATERIALIZE
WITHIN NEW DEVELOPMENT. THIS APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA
OF MID LVL COOLING AND INCREASED 70H MSTR TRANSPORT. MANY LOCATIONS
OVER WRN/CTRL CWA REPORTING GUSTS TO 25/30 MPH.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

TONIGHT...PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF WILL MOVE TO WRN MN BY DAYBREAK
WITH ASSOCIATED SFC BDRY ADVANCING TO CTRL CWA. MAIN PERIOD OF
PRECIP WILL OCCUR NEAR FRONTAL BDRY...00Z-06Z OVER WRN CWA...06Z-12Z
OVER CTRL CWA...AND 09Z-15Z OVER ERN CWA. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL
REMAINS VERY LIMITED BASED ON LATEST FCST OF MUCAPE/SHEAR BUT WILL
NEED TO WATCH FOR POSSIBLE UPDATES IF INGREDIENTS INCREASE IN
MAGNITUDE.

TOMORROW...FRONTAL BDRY WILL MOVE EAST OF CWA AND SIGNIFICANT
WARMING SHOULD OCCUR AS SUNSHINE RETURNS TO MOST OF THE MN ZONES.
CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER WISC ZONES THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY.


.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE FA THURSDAY NIGHT WITH
WAA BEHIND IT. A SFC TROF IS EXPECTED TO QUICKLY FOLLOW ON FRIDAY
AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT. NO PCPN IS EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES AS THE ATMOSPHERE IS FAIRLY DRY. UPPER
LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING BEGIN TO BUILD ACROSS THE FA FROM THE W ON
SATURDAY AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS THE FA UNDER
WAA AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NEWD AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES OUT
OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. MODEL DIFFERENCES REVEAL
THEMSELVES IN THE HANDLING OF PCPN AND QPF AMOUNTS. ECMWF WITH THE
STRONGER SFC LOW WHILE GEM/GFS ARE WEAKER AND THE GFS WITH THE
LEAST AMOUNT OF QPF. REGARDLESS...HAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FA DUE TO TIMING. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE GEM THE FASTEST WITH THE UPPER LOW/TROF AND
ECMWF/GFS SLOWER. MAINTAINED THE CHANCE POPS AS A RESULT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUSTY SFC WINDS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH VFR. AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR BUT TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE IN QUESTION AND MADE FEW
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LLWS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z AND 09Z AS LLJ PASSES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN
THE VCNTY OF SHOWERS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  46  60  44  63 /  70  20  10   0
INL  47  61  42  64 /  70  10  10   0
BRD  47  65  43  68 /  70   0   0   0
HYR  45  55  41  65 /  70  50  10   0
ASX  45  55  42  64 /  70  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CANNON
SHORT TERM...CANNON
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 221730
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BAND OF ACCAS EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY FROM JUST SOUTH OF KPWC TO
SRN PART OF STATE...ADVECTING EAST. RAP13 SHOWS THIS ARE ALIGNED
WELL WITH 85H DEWPOINT AXIS OF 8C/10C. 88D KMPX SHOWS A LINE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
DIMINISHED. NO LTG STRIKES ATTM AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO HAS OCCURRED
WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. LATEST FCST RAP13 AND HRRR SIM REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR WITH THIS AREA AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST TODAY. 85H 10C DEWPOINT AXIS DOES EXTEND RAPIDLY
NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF WRN CWA BY 18Z...AND WRN/CTRL CWA BY 21Z.
FCST UNSTABLE LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN SOUTH OF CWA TODAY SO
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION WITH SOME SLIGHT INTREPIDATION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON
MORNING 925 TEMPS/ADVECTION....AND INCREASED GUSTS BASED ON VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH IN WRN CWA. OTHERWISE MAIN PRECIP
EVENT STILL FCST TO SWEEP OVER AREA TONIGHT/EARLY THUR MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER NE
MN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY THUR
MORNING. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY S/SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION N/NEWD INTO
NRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NEXT INCOMING S/W ROLLING IN ACROSS
THE NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC AN INVERTED RIDGE
FROM ERN QUEBEC EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
DRAGGING EWD SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALLOWING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT TODAY COMBINED
WITH BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS PRECEDING THE FROPA WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW WEAK STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...THE BROAD LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY FALL
OFF AND HINDER ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUR MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THUR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATER IN THE DAY
THUR.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER AREAS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S. ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AREAS TO
THE EAST WILL RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUSTY SFC WINDS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH VFR. AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR BUT TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE IN QUESTION AND MADE FEW
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LLWS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z AND 09Z AS LLJ PASSES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN
THE VCNTY OF SHOWERS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  46  60  44 /  20  70  20  10
INL  58  47  61  39 /  50  70  10   0
BRD  58  47  65  40 /  40  70  10   0
HYR  56  45  55  41 /  20  70  50  10
ASX  57  45  55  42 /  20  70  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF









000
FXUS63 KDLH 221730
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BAND OF ACCAS EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY FROM JUST SOUTH OF KPWC TO
SRN PART OF STATE...ADVECTING EAST. RAP13 SHOWS THIS ARE ALIGNED
WELL WITH 85H DEWPOINT AXIS OF 8C/10C. 88D KMPX SHOWS A LINE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
DIMINISHED. NO LTG STRIKES ATTM AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO HAS OCCURRED
WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. LATEST FCST RAP13 AND HRRR SIM REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR WITH THIS AREA AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST TODAY. 85H 10C DEWPOINT AXIS DOES EXTEND RAPIDLY
NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF WRN CWA BY 18Z...AND WRN/CTRL CWA BY 21Z.
FCST UNSTABLE LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN SOUTH OF CWA TODAY SO
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION WITH SOME SLIGHT INTREPIDATION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON
MORNING 925 TEMPS/ADVECTION....AND INCREASED GUSTS BASED ON VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH IN WRN CWA. OTHERWISE MAIN PRECIP
EVENT STILL FCST TO SWEEP OVER AREA TONIGHT/EARLY THUR MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER NE
MN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY THUR
MORNING. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY S/SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION N/NEWD INTO
NRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NEXT INCOMING S/W ROLLING IN ACROSS
THE NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC AN INVERTED RIDGE
FROM ERN QUEBEC EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
DRAGGING EWD SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALLOWING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT TODAY COMBINED
WITH BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS PRECEDING THE FROPA WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW WEAK STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...THE BROAD LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY FALL
OFF AND HINDER ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUR MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THUR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATER IN THE DAY
THUR.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER AREAS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S. ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AREAS TO
THE EAST WILL RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. GUSTY SFC WINDS AHEAD
OF THE BOUNDARY WITH VFR. AS THE BOUNDARY PASSES...SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR BUT TIMING AND OVERALL COVERAGE IN QUESTION AND MADE FEW
CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. LLWS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
TERMINALS BETWEEN 01Z AND 09Z AS LLJ PASSES AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IN
THE VCNTY OF SHOWERS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  46  60  44 /  20  70  20  10
INL  58  47  61  39 /  50  70  10   0
BRD  58  47  65  40 /  40  70  10   0
HYR  56  45  55  41 /  20  70  50  10
ASX  57  45  55  42 /  20  70  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF









000
FXUS63 KDLH 221537 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1037 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BAND OF ACCAS EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY FROM JUST SOUTH OF KPWC TO
SRN PART OF STATE...ADVECTING EAST. RAP13 SHOWS THIS ARE ALIGNED
WELL WITH 85H DEWPOINT AXIS OF 8C/10C. 88D KMPX SHOWS A LINE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
DIMINISHED. NO LTG STRIKES ATTM AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO HAS OCCURED
WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. LATEST FCST RAP13 AND HRRR SIM REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR WITH THIS AREA AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST TODAY. 85H 10C DEWPOINT AXIS DOES EXTEND RAPIDLY
NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF WRN CWA BY 18Z...AND WRN/CTRL CWA BY 21Z.
FCST UNSTABLE LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN SOUTH OF CWA TODAY SO
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION WITH SOME SLIGHT INTREPIDATION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON
MORNING 925 TEMPS/ADVECTION....AND INCREASED GUSTS BASED ON VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH IN WRN CWA. OTHERWISE MAIN PRECIP
EVENT STILL FCST TO SWEEP OVER AREA TONIGHT/EARLY THUR MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER NE
MN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY THUR
MORNING. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY S/SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION N/NEWD INTO
NRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NEXT INCOMING S/W ROLLING IN ACROSS
THE NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC AN INVERTED RIDGE
FROM ERN QUEBEC EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
DRAGGING EWD SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALLOWING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT TODAY COMBINED
WITH BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS PRECEDING THE FROPA WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW WEAK STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...THE BROAD LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY FALL
OFF AND HINDER ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUR MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THUR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATER IN THE DAY
THUR.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER AREAS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S. ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AREAS TO
THE EAST WILL RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTRN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL THROUGH THE DAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE KINL TO KBRD AREAS AROUND
00Z...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS AND RAIN AFTER 06-08Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  46  60  44 /  20  70  20  10
INL  58  47  61  39 /  50  70  10   0
BRD  58  47  65  40 /  40  70  10   0
HYR  56  45  55  41 /  20  70  50  10
ASX  57  45  55  42 /  20  70  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 221537 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1037 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1022 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

BAND OF ACCAS EVIDENT ON SAT IMAGERY FROM JUST SOUTH OF KPWC TO
SRN PART OF STATE...ADVECTING EAST. RAP13 SHOWS THIS ARE ALIGNED
WELL WITH 85H DEWPOINT AXIS OF 8C/10C. 88D KMPX SHOWS A LINE OF
CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE EARLIER THIS MORNING HAS
DIMINISHED. NO LTG STRIKES ATTM AND A SPRINKLE OR TWO HAS OCCURED
WITHIN THIS CLOUD BAND. LATEST FCST RAP13 AND HRRR SIM REFLECTIVITY
PRODUCT INDICATES A FEW SPRINKLES MAY OCCUR WITH THIS AREA AS IT
TRANSLATES EAST TODAY. 85H 10C DEWPOINT AXIS DOES EXTEND RAPIDLY
NORTH TO INCLUDE ALL OF WRN CWA BY 18Z...AND WRN/CTRL CWA BY 21Z.
FCST UNSTABLE LOW/MID LVL LAPSE RATES REMAIN SOUTH OF CWA TODAY SO
HAVE REMOVED THUNDER MENTION WITH SOME SLIGHT INTREPIDATION.
OTHERWISE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER BASED ON
MORNING 925 TEMPS/ADVECTION....AND INCREASED GUSTS BASED ON VALUES
ALREADY IN EXCESS OF 25 MPH IN WRN CWA. OTHERWISE MAIN PRECIP
EVENT STILL FCST TO SWEEP OVER AREA TONIGHT/EARLY THUR MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER NE
MN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY THUR
MORNING. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY S/SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION N/NEWD INTO
NRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NEXT INCOMING S/W ROLLING IN ACROSS
THE NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC AN INVERTED RIDGE
FROM ERN QUEBEC EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
DRAGGING EWD SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALLOWING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT TODAY COMBINED
WITH BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS PRECEDING THE FROPA WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW WEAK STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...THE BROAD LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY FALL
OFF AND HINDER ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUR MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THUR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATER IN THE DAY
THUR.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER AREAS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S. ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AREAS TO
THE EAST WILL RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTRN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL THROUGH THE DAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE KINL TO KBRD AREAS AROUND
00Z...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS AND RAIN AFTER 06-08Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  46  60  44 /  20  70  20  10
INL  58  47  61  39 /  50  70  10   0
BRD  58  47  65  40 /  40  70  10   0
HYR  56  45  55  41 /  20  70  50  10
ASX  57  45  55  42 /  20  70  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CANNON
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 221158
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
658 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER NE
MN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY THUR
MORNING. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY S/SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION N/NEWD INTO
NRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NEXT INCOMING S/W ROLLING IN ACROSS
THE NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC AN INVERTED RIDGE
FROM ERN QUEBEC EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
DRAGGING EWD SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALLOWING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT TODAY COMBINED
WITH BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS PRECEDING THE FROPA WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW WEAK STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...THE BROAD LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY FALL
OFF AND HINDER ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUR MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THUR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATER IN THE DAY
THUR.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER AREAS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S. ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AREAS TO
THE EAST WILL RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTRN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 655 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL THROUGH THE DAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING DECREASING CLOUDS AND RAIN OVERNIGHT. EXPECT
MVFR CIGS AND RAIN TO MOVE INTO THE KINL TO KBRD AREAS AROUND
00Z...SPREADING EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS AND RAIN AFTER 06-08Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  47  58  44 /  20  70  20  10
INL  58  45  60  39 /  50  60  10   0
BRD  58  46  63  40 /  50  80  10   0
HYR  55  42  56  41 /  10  80  40  10
ASX  56  43  56  42 /  10  60  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 220905
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE COLD FRONT
EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH
RAIN SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW WEAK ISOLATED T-STORMS OVER NE
MN...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL
LIKELY PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND MOST OF TONIGHT AND EARLY THUR
MORNING. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE GUSTY S/SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY.

UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE MID MS VALLEY REGION N/NEWD INTO
NRN QUEBEC THIS MORNING IS BEING SQUEEZED BY A CUTOFF LOW OVER THE
MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NEXT INCOMING S/W ROLLING IN ACROSS
THE NRN FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES. AT THE SFC AN INVERTED RIDGE
FROM ERN QUEBEC EXTENDING BACK INTO THE WRN OHIO VALLEY REGION IS
DRAGGING EWD SLOWLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...AND ALLOWING THE NEXT
SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE WEST TO INCREASE THE PRES GRADIENT OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST. A STRENGTHENING PRES GRADIENT TODAY COMBINED
WITH BL MIXING WILL PRODUCE SUSTAINED S/SE WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15
MPH...AND GUSTS UP TO OR EXCEEDING 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIR
MASS PRECEDING THE FROPA WILL ATTEMPT TO BECOME UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 100 J/KG AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE
AFTERNOON. INCREASING MOISTURE ON THE NOSE OF MODEST MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALLOW CONDITIONS TO BECOME FAVORABLE
FOR A FEW WEAK STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES TONIGHT...THE BROAD LARGE SCALE
LIFT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT
MORE ORGANIZED SHOWERS. HOWEVER THE INSTABILITY WILL REALLY FALL
OFF AND HINDER ANY POTENTIAL FOR THUNDER. SO...WILL CONTINUE WITH
LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS TONIGHT ALONG THE FRONT WITH CONDITIONS DRYING
OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT THUR MORNING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS
LINGER AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR THUR AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...HIGH
PRESSURE WITH RIDGING ALOFT BEGINS TO TAKE HOLD LATER IN THE DAY
THUR.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ACROSS
THE ARROWHEAD...AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S OVER AREAS TO THE
WEST AND SOUTH. THIS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY FOR
MOST AREAS. CLOUDY SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT...ONLY
FALLING INTO THE 40S. ON THURSDAY...SKIES WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST
AND ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S. AREAS TO
THE EAST WILL RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES INTO THE LOWER TO MID
50S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A SERIES OF FAST MOVING SHORT WAVES WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. A VORT MAX WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS FRIDAY...MAINLY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA.
HOWEVER...THE DRY AIR MAS IS EXPECTED TO LIMIT ANY PRECIPITATION. A
MORE ORGANIZED WAVE WILL DROP OVER THE LAKE SUPERIOR REGION
SATURDAY...BUT AT THIS TIME THE MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE EAST OF THE CWA. SMALL POPS MAY BE NEEDED
IN THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD SAT IF THE TRACK OF THE LOW TRENDS
ANY FURTHER WEST. LONG RANGE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A H85
RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WESTERN MN SATURDAY AFTRN...GRADUALLY SHIFTING
EAST OVER WISCONSIN SUNDAY...KEEPING THE NORTHLAND DRY AND MOSTLY
SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/DRIZZLE THAT MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE WESTERN TIP AND NORTH
SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT INCREASES AND THE MARINE WINDS BECOME ONSHORE.
HOWEVER...HAVE KEPT POPS OUT SUNDAY AT THIS TIME AS ANTICIPATE A
SLOWER ARRIVAL OF THE MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEW POINTS TO SUPPORT
SATURATING THE LOW LEVELS UNTIL THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING A RETURN TO WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS
THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE. ALTHOUGH
MODELS DIFFER IN TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THE WAVE THIS FAR OUT...THE
LATEST GFS/ECM ARE SUGGESTING CONVECTION DEVELOPS AHEAD OF THE H50
TROUGH...ALONG A SFC BOUNDARY POSITIONED IN THE NORTHLAND VICINITY
MONDAY. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY SMALL POPS THROUGH THE
SUNDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LOWER CLOUDS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  53  47  58  44 /  20  70  20  10
INL  58  45  60  39 /  50  60  10   0
BRD  58  46  63  40 /  50  80  10   0
HYR  55  42  56  41 /  10  80  40  10
ASX  56  43  56  42 /  10  60  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 220653
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
153 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING COVERED THE FA AT 19Z. CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY
ERODING AS DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E. HAVE
DIALED BACK ON THE CLOUD MENTION TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO REDUCE IT
EVEN FURTHER BY PUBLICATION TIME. OTHERWISE...THE SFC/UPPER RIDGE
MOVE INTO EASTERN WI/UPPER MI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS PLACES MUCH OF
THE FA IN A RETURN FLOW/WAA REGIME. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND
TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS IN THE EASTERN WI FA.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGING CONTINUES ON ITS TREK TO THE E AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. MOISTURE
STREAMS INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BE
OVERCOME AND HAVE THUS BACKED OFF THE MENTION OF POPS UNTIL 21Z.
ALSO LOWERED THE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AND MOVED THE
POPS TO JUST COVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. INTRODUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AS WELL AS H85 LI`S DROP TO -1C...PWATS INCREASE TO OVER ONE INCH IN
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SOME MUCAPE TO 500 J/KG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM...DEEP LAYERED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC/MID
LVL TROF...AND ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AVAILABLE SHOULD PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. INITIAL SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE CWA LATER THURSDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL BDRY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. THIS  SYSTEM WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING MID LVL RIDGE SO IT APPEARS THAT MAINLY
CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF
THIS SYSTEM.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY FOR
PLEASANT WX. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A PROGRESSIVE MID LVL FLOW
SENDS A TROF INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BACK OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN
THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. MDLS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE   SPEED AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GENERAL IDEA
IS THAT A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. DRYING SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF ANY POLAR INTRUSION IN THE
FCST NEXT 7 DAYS...TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 115 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

DISCUSSION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. AS A RESULT...SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH INCREASING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME LOWER CLOUDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  46  56  44 /  10  70  40  10
INL  58  46  58  39 /  20  70  20  10
BRD  58  47  65  40 /  20  70  10  10
HYR  56  44  54  41 /  10  70  70  10
ASX  58  43  54  42 /   0  70  70  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

AVIATION...DAP









000
FXUS63 KDLH 212349
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPDATED FOR NEW AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING COVERED THE FA AT 19Z. CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY
ERODING AS DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E. HAVE
DIALED BACK ON THE CLOUD MENTION TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO REDUCE IT
EVEN FURTHER BY PUBLICATION TIME. OTHERWISE...THE SFC/UPPER RIDGE
MOVE INTO EASTERN WI/UPPER MI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS PLACES MUCH OF
THE FA IN A RETURN FLOW/WAA REGIME. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND
TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS IN THE EASTERN WI FA.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGING CONTINUES ON ITS TREK TO THE E AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. MOISTURE
STREAMS INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BE
OVERCOME AND HAVE THUS BACKED OFF THE MENTION OF POPS UNTIL 21Z.
ALSO LOWERED THE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AND MOVED THE
POPS TO JUST COVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. INTRODUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AS WELL AS H85 LI`S DROP TO -1C...PWATS INCREASE TO OVER ONE INCH IN
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SOME MUCAPE TO 500 J/KG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM...DEEP LAYERED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC/MID
LVL TROF...AND ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AVAILABLE SHOULD PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. INITIAL SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE CWA LATER THURSDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL BDRY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. THIS  SYSTEM WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING MID LVL RIDGE SO IT APPEARS THAT MAINLY
CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF
THIS SYSTEM.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY FOR
PLEASANT WX. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A PROGRESSIVE MID LVL FLOW
SENDS A TROF INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BACK OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN
THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. MDLS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE   SPEED AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GENERAL IDEA
IS THAT A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. DRYING SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF ANY POLAR INTRUSION IN THE
FCST NEXT 7 DAYS...TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME PATCHY
FOG COULD DEVELOP AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON...BUT IT SHOULD BE QUITE
LIMITED IN COVERAGE. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY...BRINGING A FEW SHOWERS INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  54  46  56 /   0  10  70  40
INL  36  58  46  58 /   0  20  70  20
BRD  38  58  47  65 /   0  20  70  10
HYR  33  56  44  54 /   0  10  70  70
ASX  33  58  43  54 /   0   0  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DAP
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...DAP








000
FXUS63 KDLH 212027
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

UPPER LEVEL/SFC RIDGING COVERED THE FA AT 19Z. CLOUDS WERE QUICKLY
ERODING AS DRIER AIR WAS WORKING INTO THE AREA FROM THE E. HAVE
DIALED BACK ON THE CLOUD MENTION TONIGHT AND MAY HAVE TO REDUCE IT
EVEN FURTHER BY PUBLICATION TIME. OTHERWISE...THE SFC/UPPER RIDGE
MOVE INTO EASTERN WI/UPPER MI BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THIS PLACES MUCH OF
THE FA IN A RETURN FLOW/WAA REGIME. THERE WILL BE JUST ENOUGH WIND
TO KEEP ANY FOG FROM FORMING. MIN TEMPS WILL BE COOLEST NEAR THE
RIDGE AXIS IN THE EASTERN WI FA.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGING CONTINUES ON ITS TREK TO THE E AS UPPER
LEVEL TROF MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS. MOISTURE
STREAMS INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM AND CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE. HOWEVER...THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO BE
OVERCOME AND HAVE THUS BACKED OFF THE MENTION OF POPS UNTIL 21Z.
ALSO LOWERED THE POPS INTO THE SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORY AND MOVED THE
POPS TO JUST COVER THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA. THIS LINES UP WELL
WITH THE LATEST MODEL CONSENSUS. INTRODUCED THE MENTION OF THUNDER
AS WELL AS H85 LI`S DROP TO -1C...PWATS INCREASE TO OVER ONE INCH IN
THIS TIME PERIOD WITH SOME MUCAPE TO 500 J/KG. MAX TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT WARMER.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

A SLOW MOVING SHORTWAVE TROF WILL CROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT IS
ANTICIPATED SOME SIGNIFICANT QPF IS POSSIBLE. THE SLOW MOVING NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM...DEEP LAYERED CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SFC/MID
LVL TROF...AND ABOVE NORMAL PWATS AVAILABLE SHOULD PROVIDE AN
OPPORTUNITY FOR AREAL AVERAGE PRECIP OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF
INCH...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. INITIAL SYSTEM SHOULD
MOVE SLOWLY EAST OF THE CWA LATER THURSDAY. A SECOND FRONTAL BDRY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY AFTN/EVENING. THIS  SYSTEM WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH A BUILDING MID LVL RIDGE SO IT APPEARS THAT MAINLY
CLOUDS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY EFFECTS OF
THIS SYSTEM.HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY FOR
PLEASANT WX. THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS A PROGRESSIVE MID LVL FLOW
SENDS A TROF INTO THE ROCKIES SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE UPPER FLOW WILL
BACK OVER THE NRN PLAINS SUNDAY AS A LEE SIDE SFC LOW DEVELOPS IN
THE WRN HIGH PLAINS. MDLS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY AS TO THE   SPEED AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SFC LOW SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...GENERAL IDEA
IS THAT A PERIOD OF RAIN WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. DRYING SHOULD SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE AREA SOMETIME LATE
MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE LACK OF ANY POLAR INTRUSION IN THE
FCST NEXT 7 DAYS...TEMPS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LARGE STRATUS DECK WITH CEILINGS 015 TO 020 AFFECTING KDLH/KHIB.
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL EROSION OF STRATUS AT ALL SITES IN NEXT FEW
HRS. OTHERWISE...A VFR FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE WRN TERMINALS BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36  54  46  56 /   0  10  70  40
INL  36  58  46  58 /   0  20  70  20
BRD  38  58  47  65 /   0  20  70  10
HYR  33  56  44  54 /   0  10  70  70
ASX  33  58  43  54 /   0   0  70  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...CANNON
AVIATION...CANNON









000
FXUS63 KDLH 211752 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...


UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR AT 14Z.
EASTERLY FLOW AROUND THE HIGH AND OVER LAKE SUPERIOR IS HELPING TO
KEEP THE CLOUDS AROUND. PRIOR FORECAST OF CLEARING SKIES STILL ON
TRACK WITH THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH DRIER AIR THIS AFTERNOON. LOWERED
MAX TEMPS A BIT WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
ARROWHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST FOCUS IN THE NEAR TERM WILL AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND CLOUD
COVER...THEN EMPHASIS SHIFTS TO RAIN CHANCES ON WEDNESDAY.

08Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER FAR
NORTHWEST ONTARIO WITH RIDGING EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
MINNESOTA/WISCONSIN. A STRATUS DECK WITH BASES FROM AROUND 1500FT
TO 2500FT COVERED MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE SOUTHWEST
QUARTER OF MY CWA MAINLY CLOUD FREE. CLOUD FREE AREAS WILL SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH ABOUT 9 AM. THE 00Z KINL SOUNDING SHOWED THE
MOISTURE WAS RATHER SHALLOW. THESE CLOUDS FOR THE MOST PART HAVE
NOT MADE MUCH WESTWARD PROGRESS SO FAR THIS MORNING. THEY WERE
CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE WEST ACROSS ITASCA/KOOCHICHING COUNTIES.
THERE WERE BREAKS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL WI WITH
CLEARING OVER EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE INVERSION LOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY WITH REALLY DRY AIR ABOVE IT. MUCH OF THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS CLEARING WILL OCCUR TODAY...RATHER QUICKLY THROUGH THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE A BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC AND HOLD ONTO
CLOUDS LONGER...ESPECIALLY AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN EAST FLOW
WILL DELAY CLEARING. THE CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN HAVE A BIG IMPACT
ON TEMPERATURES AND SOME ADJUSTMENT WILL LIKELY NEED TO OCCUR AS
THE CLOUD TRENDS BECOME MORE LIKELY TODAY. WE HAVE OUR WARMEST
TEMPS FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES TO SIREN WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
FIFTIES. WE ARE COOLEST IN THE ARROWHEAD WITH HIGHS 45 TO 50.
STRONGER WINDS WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AREAS TODAY AS THE GRADIENT
STARTS TO TIGHTEN THERE.

WE HELD ONTO MORE CLOUDS IN THE ARROWHEAD THIS EVENING...WITH
CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ELSEWHERE.

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE HIGH DEPARTS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOWING PWAT VALUES INCREASING TO AROUND AN INCH
WHICH IS QUITE HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. PWAT VALUES AROUND 1
INCH IS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. THE
ECMWF HAS SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP WEDNESDAY...BUT WE FOLLOWED
CLOSER TO THE GFS/NAM AND BRING POPS FURTHER EAST THAN THE ECMWF
WOULD SUGGEST. WE HAVE THE EASTWARD EXTENT OF OUR SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS AS FAR EAST AS THE WI/MN BORDER BY LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THE HIGHER CHANCES WILL OCCUR OVER WESTERN AREAS. THE FORCING IS
NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY...BUT WITH THE
HIGHER MOISTURE MOVING IN WE PREFER THE FASTER GFS/NAM. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY PRESENT...AND ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY...SOME THUNDER COULD
OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

AN UPPER LOW OVER NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA AND MANITOBA BORDER
WEDNESDAY EVENING WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. THERE WILL BE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE NORTHLAND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING TROUGH. THE MODELS ARE IN MUCH
BETTER AGREEMENT THAN EARLIER RUNS...SO INCREASED THE PCPN CHANCES.
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 TENTHS OF AN INCH ARE LIKELY.

WARM SW FLOW WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S OVER MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS ABOUT 15 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A CENTRAL CANADIAN LOW WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FRIDAY NIGHT. SUNNIER AND COOLER WEATHER IS
LIKELY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL STILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MODELS LOSE AGREEMENT FOR THE LATE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE A COLD FRONT WILL LIFT
THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE LOW CHANCES OF RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

LARGE STRATUS DECK WITH CEILINGS 015 TO 020 AFFECTING KDLH/KHIB.
SHOULD SEE GRADUAL EROSION OF STRATUS AT ALL SITES IN NEXT FEW
HRS. OTHERWISE...A VFR FCST THROUGH THE PERIOD. APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL SPREAD HIGH CLOUDS INTO THE WRN TERMINALS BY 18Z
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  36  54  45 /  10   0  10  70
INL  50  36  58  45 /   0   0  40  70
BRD  55  37  58  47 /   0   0  40  70
HYR  52  29  57  44 /   0   0   0  70
ASX  49  32  58  43 /  10   0   0  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...CANNON








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