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000
FXUS63 KDLH 302018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
318 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AT 300 PM...THE NORTHLAND WAS BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL US...CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI...AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA AND FAR NW ONTARIO. THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY
NE FLOW...WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. AREAS NEAR AND
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAD GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE SKIES
RANGED FROM SUNNY ACROSS THE NW FORECAST AREA TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 50S WELL INLAND.

THE GUSTY NE FLOW WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE NORTHLAND FROM THE NORTH. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WILL RESULT IN SOME
AREAS OF FROST BY DAWN SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE LIGHTER NE FLOW
SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND COULD PROPEL A LAKE BREEZE
WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

LONG TERM CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE SOMEWHAT LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

IT WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. A SLOWLY MOVING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH TUESDAY KEEPING RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 40 PERCENT. IN THE LEECH
LAKE/BRAINERD LAKES ALONG WITH THE THE SANDY SOILS IN NW WI...THE
VALUES COULD GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S. GREENUP IS OCCURRING
WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINING A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS IN NW WI.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AND KEEPING THE REGION RAINFREE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S AWAYS FROM THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME CIGS AT 5-6K
AT INL/HIB THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AT ALL SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  53  36  60 /   0   0   0  10
INL  30  61  35  64 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  35  60  37  65 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  37  59  34  64 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  35  52  35  61 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-141>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART





000
FXUS63 KDLH 302018
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
318 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

AT 300 PM...THE NORTHLAND WAS BETWEEN AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN
THE CENTRAL US...CENTERED NEAR MISSOURI...AND HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER MANITOBA AND FAR NW ONTARIO. THE NORTHLAND HAD GUSTY
NE FLOW...WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 15 TO 25 MPH. AREAS NEAR AND
DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR HAD GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH. THE SKIES
RANGED FROM SUNNY ACROSS THE NW FORECAST AREA TO PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY SKIES ACROSS THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE
LOW TO MIDDLE 50S WELL INLAND.

THE GUSTY NE FLOW WILL SUBSIDE LATER THIS EVENING. THE LOW
PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST TO SOUTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY...WHILE THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH
THE NORTHLAND FROM THE NORTH. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WILL RESULT IN SOME
AREAS OF FROST BY DAWN SUNDAY. THERE WILL BE LIGHTER NE FLOW
SUNDAY AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE OVER WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR...AND COULD PROPEL A LAKE BREEZE
WELL INLAND. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

LONG TERM CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE SOMEWHAT LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES.

IT WILL REMAIN QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE END OF
NEXT WEEK WITH THE ONLY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED IS TUESDAY NIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. A SLOWLY MOVING RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION THROUGH TUESDAY KEEPING RAIN
OUT OF THE AREA. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BELOW 40 PERCENT. IN THE LEECH
LAKE/BRAINERD LAKES ALONG WITH THE THE SANDY SOILS IN NW WI...THE
VALUES COULD GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER 30S. GREENUP IS OCCURRING
WITH THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE OF THE PAST FEW DAYS.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING BRINING A POSSIBILITY OF RAIN SHOWERS IN NW WI.
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY
AND KEEPING THE REGION RAINFREE WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE
60S TO LOWER 70S AWAYS FROM THE LAKE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME CIGS AT 5-6K
AT INL/HIB THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AT ALL SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  53  36  60 /   0   0   0  10
INL  30  61  35  64 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  35  60  37  65 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  37  59  34  64 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  35  52  35  61 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-141>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART





000
FXUS63 KDLH 301739
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1239 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

***1230 PM TAF ISSUANCE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM***

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE FOCUS FOR THIS UPDATE WAS ON WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RAP13/NAM12/GFS20 SOUNDINGS AND
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL WINDS SUGGESTED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WERE TOO LOW. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE
WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MIXING LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THE
TWIN PORTS AREA MAY EVEN SEE GUSTS APPROACH 30 MPH DUE TO THE
STRONGER FLOW COMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS FOR CLOUD
COVER...INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS WITH A WEIGHTING
TOWARDS THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...WHICH IS PROVIDING THICKER
CLOUD COVER FOR THE CIRRUS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH...AND ALSO PROVIDES SOME AFTERNOON
CUMULUS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.

AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH ANOTHER
LOW FURTHER SOUTH TO CAUSE AN ELONGATED AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BETWEEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A CANADIAN HIGH OFF TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CREATE AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW...WHICH WILL INCREASE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOUDS WILL
EXPAND SOME OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY...WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE
ARROWHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING DIMINISHING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND SIXTY IN INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND WALKER TO THE MID TO UPPER
FIFTIES OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BE COOLER WITH ONLY FORTIES OCCURRING.

THE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY SO WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH AS TODAY...HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER FORTIES
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...BUT BE AROUND SIXTY WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE LONG TERM GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROF
OVER THE MIDWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE SURFACE RESPONSE
WILL BE RATHER BENIGN WITH A GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EARLY
IN THE PERIOD THEN A QUICK MOVING CANADIAN LOW MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONAL...AND EVEN ON THE WARM
SIDE...IN THE 60S AND AROUND 70. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE CANADIAN LOW SWINGS BY AND THE HIGH BUILDS IN
TO BRING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GFS HAS MUCH COLDER
AIR COMING IN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...-5C AT 8H WITH THE GFS VS
ABOUT 0C ON THE ECMWF...BUT THE FORECAST DOES REFLECT THE COOLER
TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 50S. THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG EAST FLOW
WILL END...GIVING SOME WARMER TEMPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE MAY BE SOME CIGS AT 5-6K
AT INL/HIB THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL ALSO BE GUSTY AT ALL SITES
THIS AFTERNOON AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH. THE WINDS
WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  34  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
INL  60  29  62  35 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  58  37  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  55  35  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  50  34  51  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-141>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...STEWART





000
FXUS63 KDLH 301356 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
856 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE FOCUS FOR THIS UPDATE WAS ON WIND SPEEDS AND CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE LATEST RAP13/NAM12/GFS20 SOUNDINGS AND
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL WINDS SUGGESTED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WERE TOO LOW. THE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE
WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN THE MIXING LAYER THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FORECAST AREA. THE
TWIN PORTS AREA MAY EVEN SEE GUSTS APPROACH 30 MPH DUE TO THE
STRONGER FLOW COMING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. AS FOR CLOUD
COVER...INCREASED CLOUD COVER FOR MOST AREAS WITH A WEIGHTING
TOWARDS THE LATEST EXPERIMENTAL HRRR...WHICH IS PROVIDING THICKER
CLOUD COVER FOR THE CIRRUS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA FROM THE SOUTH...AND ALSO PROVIDES SOME AFTERNOON
CUMULUS THAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR SOME AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.

AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH ANOTHER
LOW FURTHER SOUTH TO CAUSE AN ELONGATED AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BETWEEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A CANADIAN HIGH OFF TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CREATE AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW...WHICH WILL INCREASE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOUDS WILL
EXPAND SOME OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY...WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE
ARROWHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING DIMINISHING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND SIXTY IN INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND WALKER TO THE MID TO UPPER
FIFTIES OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BE COOLER WITH ONLY FORTIES OCCURRING.

THE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY SO WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH AS TODAY...HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER FORTIES
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...BUT BE AROUND SIXTY WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE LONG TERM GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROF
OVER THE MIDWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE SURFACE RESPONSE
WILL BE RATHER BENIGN WITH A GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EARLY
IN THE PERIOD THEN A QUICK MOVING CANADIAN LOW MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONAL...AND EVEN ON THE WARM
SIDE...IN THE 60S AND AROUND 70. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE CANADIAN LOW SWINGS BY AND THE HIGH BUILDS IN
TO BRING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GFS HAS MUCH COLDER
AIR COMING IN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...-5C AT 8H WITH THE GFS VS
ABOUT 0C ON THE ECMWF...BUT THE FORECAST DOES REFLECT THE COOLER
TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 50S. THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG EAST FLOW
WILL END...GIVING SOME WARMER TEMPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONGER FROM THE EAST TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE SHARPLY TONIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  34  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
INL  60  29  62  35 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  58  37  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  55  35  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  47  34  51  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR LSZ121-141>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC





000
FXUS63 KDLH 301135
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
635 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.

AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH ANOTHER
LOW FURTHER SOUTH TO CAUSE AN ELONGATED AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BETWEEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A CANADIAN HIGH OFF TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CREATE AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW...WHICH WILL INCREASE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOUDS WILL
EXPAND SOME OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY...WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE
ARROWHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING DIMINISHING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND SIXTY IN INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND WALKER TO THE MID TO UPPER
FIFTIES OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BE COOLER WITH ONLY FORTIES OCCURRING.

THE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY SO WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH AS TODAY...HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER FORTIES
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...BUT BE AROUND SIXTY WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE LONG TERM GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROF
OVER THE MIDWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE SURFACE RESPONSE
WILL BE RATHER BENIGN WITH A GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EARLY
IN THE PERIOD THEN A QUICK MOVING CANADIAN LOW MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONAL...AND EVEN ON THE WARM
SIDE...IN THE 60S AND AROUND 70. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE CANADIAN LOW SWINGS BY AND THE HIGH BUILDS IN
TO BRING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GFS HAS MUCH COLDER
AIR COMING IN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...-5C AT 8H WITH THE GFS VS
ABOUT 0C ON THE ECMWF...BUT THE FORECAST DOES REFLECT THE COOLER
TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 50S. THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG EAST FLOW
WILL END...GIVING SOME WARMER TEMPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BECOME STRONGER FROM THE EAST TODAY WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. THE
WINDS WILL DECREASE SHARPLY TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  34  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
INL  60  29  62  35 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  58  37  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  55  35  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  47  34  51  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR LSZ121-141>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC





000
FXUS63 KDLH 300846
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
346 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH
ONSHORE WINDS CONTINUING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR.

AN UPPER LOW OVER NORTHWEST ONTARIO WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES
SOUTHEAST TODAY INTO TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH ANOTHER
LOW FURTHER SOUTH TO CAUSE AN ELONGATED AREA OF UPPER LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEAST THROUGH WISCONSIN ALL THE WAY
INTO WESTERN QUEBEC. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BETWEEN SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND A CANADIAN HIGH OFF TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHWEST. THIS WILL CREATE AN EAST TO NORTHEAST
FLOW...WHICH WILL INCREASE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR. CLOUDS WILL
EXPAND SOME OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TODAY...WITH THE CLOUDS OVER THE
ARROWHEAD EARLY THIS MORNING DIMINISHING. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM
AROUND SIXTY IN INTERNATIONAL FALLS AND WALKER TO THE MID TO UPPER
FIFTIES OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. AREAS AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BE COOLER WITH ONLY FORTIES OCCURRING.

THE GRADIENT WILL DIMINISH ON SUNDAY SO WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
HIGH AS TODAY...HOWEVER IT WILL STILL BE IN THE UPPER FORTIES
RIGHT ALONG THE LAKE SHORE...BUT BE AROUND SIXTY WELL INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 346 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE LONG TERM GENERAL UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL FEATURE A BROAD TROF
OVER THE MIDWEST FOR MOST OF THE WEEK...THEN IT WILL BE REPLACED
BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LATE IN THE WEEK. THE SURFACE RESPONSE
WILL BE RATHER BENIGN WITH A GENERAL AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EARLY
IN THE PERIOD THEN A QUICK MOVING CANADIAN LOW MOVING THROUGH
TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONAL...AND EVEN ON THE WARM
SIDE...IN THE 60S AND AROUND 70. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ON
WEDNESDAY AFTER THE CANADIAN LOW SWINGS BY AND THE HIGH BUILDS IN
TO BRING SOME COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION. THE GFS HAS MUCH COLDER
AIR COMING IN COMPARED TO THE ECMWF...-5C AT 8H WITH THE GFS VS
ABOUT 0C ON THE ECMWF...BUT THE FORECAST DOES REFLECT THE COOLER
TEMPS...MAINLY IN THE 50S. THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF STRONG EAST FLOW
WILL END...GIVING SOME WARMER TEMPS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A  A MINIMAL THREAT FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW CLOUDS AND
MVFR CEILINGS AT KDLH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS LOW
SO HAVE HANDLED WITH A SCATTERED GROUP AROUND 2 KFT AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST SATURDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  48  34  54  36 /   0   0   0   0
INL  60  29  62  35 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  58  37  61  37 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  55  35  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  47  34  51  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR LSZ121-141>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ140.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC





000
FXUS63 KDLH 300541 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1241 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AT 315 PM...AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
MANITOBA AND FAR NW ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NORTHLAND HAD NE FLOW....ABOUT 5 TO 10
MPH...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT FOR CLOUDIER SKIES OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WELL INLAND. DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL CONTINUE THE COOL WEATHER
PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOW DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL
PROVIDE A NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT FROST SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH AS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT WILL PROVIDE SOME REGIONAL LIFT TO HELP
DEVELOP CUMULUS CLOUDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY ENE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
NAM12 AND GFS20 SOUNDINGS INDICATING WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN
THE MIXING LAYER. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. LEANED ON THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE WEIGHTING SINCE THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN SO
SIMILAR FOR THE MOST RECENT DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WELL
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 27-37 PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE OF WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30
WHICH WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE
IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. IT ALSO WILL BE
WINDY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH READINGS OF 15-25 MPH POSSIBLE.

ANTHER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO WARM WITH HIGHS INLAND IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1241 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A  A MINIMAL THREAT FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF LOW CLOUDS AND
MVFR CEILINGS AT KDLH SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY IS LOW
SO HAVE HANDLED WITH A SCATTERED GROUP AROUND 2 KFT AT THIS TIME.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST SATURDAY WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF
25 TO 30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  49  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
INL  31  58  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  37  58  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  34  57  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  30  46  34  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT SUNDAY
     FOR LSZ121-141>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...CLC





000
FXUS63 KDLH 292356
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AT 315 PM...AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
MANITOBA AND FAR NW ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NORTHLAND HAD NE FLOW....ABOUT 5 TO 10
MPH...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT FOR CLOUDIER SKIES OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WELL INLAND. DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL CONTINUE THE COOL WEATHER
PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOW DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL
PROVIDE A NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT FROST SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH AS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT WILL PROVIDE SOME REGIONAL LIFT TO HELP
DEVELOP CUMULUS CLOUDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY ENE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
NAM12 AND GFS20 SOUNDINGS INDICATING WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN
THE MIXING LAYER. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. LEANED ON THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE WEIGHTING SINCE THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN SO
SIMILAR FOR THE MOST RECENT DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WELL
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 27-37 PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE OF WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30
WHICH WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE
IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. IT ALSO WILL BE
WINDY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH READINGS OF 15-25 MPH POSSIBLE.

ANTHER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO WARM WITH HIGHS INLAND IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE EAST SATURDAY WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO
30 KNOTS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  49  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
INL  31  58  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  37  58  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  34  57  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  32  48  34  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 292059 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
359 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AT 315 PM...AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
MANITOBA AND FAR NW ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NORTHLAND HAD NE FLOW....ABOUT 5 TO 10
MPH...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT FOR CLOUDIER SKIES OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WELL INLAND. DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL CONTINUE THE COOL WEATHER
PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOW DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL
PROVIDE A NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT FROST SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH AS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT WILL PROVIDE SOME REGIONAL LIFT TO HELP
DEVELOP CUMULUS CLOUDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY ENE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
NAM12 AND GFS20 SOUNDINGS INDICATING WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN
THE MIXING LAYER. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. LEANED ON THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE WEIGHTING SINCE THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN SO
SIMILAR FOR THE MOST RECENT DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WELL
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY.

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE PUSHING DRY AIR INTO THE AREA KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 27-37 PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE OF WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30
WHICH WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE
IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. IT ALSO WILL BE
WINDY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH READINGS OF 15-25 MPH POSSIBLE.

ANTHER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO WARM WITH HIGHS INLAND IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL RISE TO 10-20 MPH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  49  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
INL  31  58  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  37  58  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  34  57  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  32  48  34  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART





000
FXUS63 KDLH 292027
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
327 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

AT 315 PM...AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
MANITOBA AND FAR NW ONTARIO. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NORTHLAND HAD NE FLOW....ABOUT 5 TO 10
MPH...AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...EXCEPT FOR CLOUDIER SKIES OVER THE
ARROWHEAD. TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR...TO THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S WELL INLAND. DEW
POINT TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.

THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL CONTINUE THE COOL WEATHER
PATTERN WITH EASTERLY FLOW...WITH THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES NEAR
LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE CLEAR SKIES...LIGHT WIND...AND LOW DEW POINT TEMPERATURES WILL
PROVIDE A NIGHT OF GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING. SOME PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT FROST SATURDAY MORNING...SUCH AS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON...WILL SWING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT WILL PROVIDE SOME REGIONAL LIFT TO HELP
DEVELOP CUMULUS CLOUDS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY ENE FLOW WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND BY THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
NAM12 AND GFS20 SOUNDINGS INDICATING WIDESPREAD 15 TO 25 KNOTS IN
THE MIXING LAYER. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR AND DOWNWIND OF
LAKE SUPERIOR. LEANED ON THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MODEL
GUIDANCE IN THE WEIGHTING SINCE THE WEATHER PATTERN HAS BEEN SO
SIMILAR FOR THE MOST RECENT DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S WELL
INLAND.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

LONG TERM CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES AND WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR SATURDAY

QUIET WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND SS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY. THE RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PUSH IN DRY AIR INTO THE AREA KEEPING MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES IN THE 27-37 PERCENT RANGE. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE THE INCREASE OF WINDS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
ON SATURDAY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE DUE TO THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE HIGH TO THE NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE
REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30
WHICH WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS A FAST MOVING CLIPPER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THERE
IS LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SO THE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. IT ALSO WILL BE
WINDY ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WITH READINGS OF 15-25 MPH POSSIBLE.

ANTHER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY AND WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE END OF THE WORKWEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL ALSO WARM WITH HIGHS INLAND IN THE 60S TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL RISE TO 10-20 MPH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  49  34  55 /   0   0   0   0
INL  31  58  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  37  58  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  34  57  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  32  48  34  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART





000
FXUS63 KDLH 291743
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1243 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

***1230 PM TAF ISSUANCE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM***

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY AS THEY
HAVE ENDED. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN WI AS OF 07Z. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WAS SINKING A BIT SOUTHWARD. THIS LEFT THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND RESULTED IN A VARIETY OF CLOUD
COVER. THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WAS EXITING SOUTHERN PRICE
COUNTY AS WELL. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM ONTARIO AND BE NORTH OF THE ARROWHEAD BY 7 PM FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL PUSH SOME ENERGY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ONLY EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TODAY.

THE ONTARIO UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT WAVE TROF. EVEN THOUGH A SHOT OF VORTICITY
MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROF OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE
TONIGHT...ONLY EXPECT A MINOR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE
ARROWHEAD AS THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AS SEEN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ELSEWHERE...A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED.

THE ONTARIO CLOSED LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
ONTARIO...THE SHORT WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER NE MN...BUT THE VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
LOOK FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

REMAINING NEAR SEASONABLE AND SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THEN WARMING UP FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK UNTIL A
WEEK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWERS. ANOTHER WARM UP
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM
UP TO THE 60S AND PERHAPS NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY...WITH WARMTH EXTENDING
EVEN UP TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS. A
LITTLE BREEZY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND INCREASING CLOUDS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

NOT AS WARM WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER AIR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY. SKIES SUNNY AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD...WITH THE
SFC HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS WILL RISE TO 10-20 MPH
SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  34  49  34 /   0   0   0   0
INL  57  33  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  59  37  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  57  35  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  51  32  48  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...STEWART





000
FXUS63 KDLH 291123
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
623 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY AS THEY
HAVE ENDED. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN WI AS OF 07Z. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WAS SINKING A BIT SOUTHWARD. THIS LEFT THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND RESULTED IN A VARIETY OF CLOUD
COVER. THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WAS EXITING SOUTHERN PRICE
COUNTY AS WELL. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM ONTARIO AND BE NORTH OF THE ARROWHEAD BY 7 PM FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL PUSH SOME ENERGY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ONLY EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TODAY.

THE ONTARIO UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT WAVE TROF. EVEN THOUGH A SHOT OF VORTICITY
MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROF OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE
TONIGHT...ONLY EXPECT A MINOR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE
ARROWHEAD AS THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AS SEEN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ELSEWHERE...A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED.

THE ONTARIO CLOSED LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
ONTARIO...THE SHORT WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER NE MN...BUT THE VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
LOOK FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

REMAINING NEAR SEASONABLE AND SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THEN WARMING UP FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK UNTIL A
WEEK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWERS. ANOTHER WARM UP
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM
UP TO THE 60S AND PERHAPS NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY...WITH WARMTH EXTENDING
EVEN UP TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS. A
LITTLE BREEZY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND INCREASING CLOUDS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

NOT AS WARM WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER AIR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY. SKIES SUNNY AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD...WITH THE
SFC HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED VFR
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT LESS THAN 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY...BECOMING NEAR CALM AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  34  49  34 /   0   0   0   0
INL  57  33  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  59  37  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  57  35  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  51  32  48  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM





000
FXUS63 KDLH 291123
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
623 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

REMOVED THE MENTION OF SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN PRICE COUNTY AS THEY
HAVE ENDED. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN WI AS OF 07Z. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WAS SINKING A BIT SOUTHWARD. THIS LEFT THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND RESULTED IN A VARIETY OF CLOUD
COVER. THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WAS EXITING SOUTHERN PRICE
COUNTY AS WELL. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM ONTARIO AND BE NORTH OF THE ARROWHEAD BY 7 PM FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL PUSH SOME ENERGY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ONLY EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TODAY.

THE ONTARIO UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT WAVE TROF. EVEN THOUGH A SHOT OF VORTICITY
MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROF OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE
TONIGHT...ONLY EXPECT A MINOR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE
ARROWHEAD AS THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AS SEEN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ELSEWHERE...A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED.

THE ONTARIO CLOSED LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
ONTARIO...THE SHORT WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER NE MN...BUT THE VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
LOOK FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

REMAINING NEAR SEASONABLE AND SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THEN WARMING UP FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK UNTIL A
WEEK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWERS. ANOTHER WARM UP
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM
UP TO THE 60S AND PERHAPS NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY...WITH WARMTH EXTENDING
EVEN UP TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS. A
LITTLE BREEZY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND INCREASING CLOUDS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

NOT AS WARM WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER AIR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY. SKIES SUNNY AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD...WITH THE
SFC HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED VFR
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT LESS THAN 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY...BECOMING NEAR CALM AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  34  49  34 /   0   0   0   0
INL  57  33  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  59  37  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  57  35  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  51  32  48  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM





000
FXUS63 KDLH 291121
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
621 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN WI AS OF 07Z. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WAS SINKING A BIT SOUTHWARD. THIS LEFT THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND RESULTED IN A VARIETY OF CLOUD
COVER. THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WAS EXITING SOUTHERN PRICE
COUNTY AS WELL. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM ONTARIO AND BE NORTH OF THE ARROWHEAD BY 7 PM FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL PUSH SOME ENERGY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ONLY EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TODAY.

THE ONTARIO UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT WAVE TROF. EVEN THOUGH A SHOT OF VORTICITY
MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROF OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE
TONIGHT...ONLY EXPECT A MINOR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE
ARROWHEAD AS THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AS SEEN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ELSEWHERE...A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED.

THE ONTARIO CLOSED LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
ONTARIO...THE SHORT WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER NE MN...BUT THE VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
LOOK FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

REMAINING NEAR SEASONABLE AND SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THEN WARMING UP FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK UNTIL A
WEEK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWERS. ANOTHER WARM UP
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM
UP TO THE 60S AND PERHAPS NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY...WITH WARMTH EXTENDING
EVEN UP TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS. A
LITTLE BREEZY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND INCREASING CLOUDS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

NOT AS WARM WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER AIR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY. SKIES SUNNY AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD...WITH THE
SFC HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED VFR
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT LESS THAN 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY...BECOMING NEAR CALM AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  34  49  34 /   0   0   0   0
INL  57  33  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  59  37  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  57  35  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  51  32  48  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM





000
FXUS63 KDLH 291121
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
621 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN WI AS OF 07Z. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WAS SINKING A BIT SOUTHWARD. THIS LEFT THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND RESULTED IN A VARIETY OF CLOUD
COVER. THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WAS EXITING SOUTHERN PRICE
COUNTY AS WELL. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM ONTARIO AND BE NORTH OF THE ARROWHEAD BY 7 PM FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL PUSH SOME ENERGY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ONLY EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TODAY.

THE ONTARIO UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT WAVE TROF. EVEN THOUGH A SHOT OF VORTICITY
MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROF OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE
TONIGHT...ONLY EXPECT A MINOR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE
ARROWHEAD AS THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AS SEEN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ELSEWHERE...A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED.

THE ONTARIO CLOSED LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
ONTARIO...THE SHORT WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER NE MN...BUT THE VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
LOOK FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

REMAINING NEAR SEASONABLE AND SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THEN WARMING UP FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK UNTIL A
WEEK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWERS. ANOTHER WARM UP
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM
UP TO THE 60S AND PERHAPS NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY...WITH WARMTH EXTENDING
EVEN UP TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS. A
LITTLE BREEZY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND INCREASING CLOUDS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

NOT AS WARM WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER AIR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY. SKIES SUNNY AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD...WITH THE
SFC HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 621 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCATTERED VFR
CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT. WINDS LIGHT OUT
OF THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT LESS THAN 12 KNOTS THROUGH THE
DAY...BECOMING NEAR CALM AND VARIABLE IN DIRECTION OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  34  49  34 /   0   0   0   0
INL  57  33  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  59  37  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  57  35  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  51  32  48  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM





000
FXUS63 KDLH 290740
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN WI AS OF 07Z. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WAS SINKING A BIT SOUTHWARD. THIS LEFT THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND RESULTED IN A VARIETY OF CLOUD
COVER. THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WAS EXITING SOUTHERN PRICE
COUNTY AS WELL. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM ONTARIO AND BE NORTH OF THE ARROWHEAD BY 7 PM FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL PUSH SOME ENERGY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ONLY EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TODAY.

THE ONTARIO UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT WAVE TROF. EVEN THOUGH A SHOT OF VORTICITY
MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROF OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE
TONIGHT...ONLY EXPECT A MINOR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE
ARROWHEAD AS THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AS SEEN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ELSEWHERE...A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED.

THE ONTARIO CLOSED LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
ONTARIO...THE SHORT WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER NE MN...BUT THE VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
LOOK FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

REMAINING NEAR SEASONABLE AND SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THEN WARMING UP FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK UNTIL A
WEEK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWERS. ANOTHER WARM UP
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM
UP TO THE 60S AND PERHAPS NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY...WITH WARMTH EXTENDING
EVEN UP TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS. A
LITTLE BREEZY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND INCREASING CLOUDS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

NOT AS WARM WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER AIR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY. SKIES SUNNY AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD...WITH THE
SFC HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  34  49  34 /   0   0   0   0
INL  57  33  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  59  37  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  57  35  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  51  32  48  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...AEG





000
FXUS63 KDLH 290740
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN AFFECTING THE REGION THE LAST FEW
DAYS HAS MOVED INTO EASTERN WI AS OF 07Z. MEANWHILE...SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER MANITOBA WAS SINKING A BIT SOUTHWARD. THIS LEFT THE
FORECAST AREA BETWEEN SYSTEMS AND RESULTED IN A VARIETY OF CLOUD
COVER. THE LAST OF THE RAIN SHOWERS WAS EXITING SOUTHERN PRICE
COUNTY AS WELL. ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
FROM ONTARIO AND BE NORTH OF THE ARROWHEAD BY 7 PM FRIDAY. THIS LOW
WILL PUSH SOME ENERGY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WITH
THE VERY DRY AIR REMAINING OVER THE REGION...ONLY EXPECTING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER TODAY.

THE ONTARIO UPPER LOW MOVES OVER NORTHERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE TONIGHT
ACCOMPANIED BY A SHORT WAVE TROF. EVEN THOUGH A SHOT OF VORTICITY
MOVES THROUGH THE BASE OF THIS TROF OVER THE ARROWHEAD LATE
TONIGHT...ONLY EXPECT A MINOR INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVER THE
ARROWHEAD AS THE COLUMN IS VERY DRY AS SEEN BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
ELSEWHERE...A MOSTLY CLEAR TO CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED.

THE ONTARIO CLOSED LOW MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PORTION OF
ONTARIO...THE SHORT WAVE TROF REMAINS OVER THE REGION SATURDAY.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY IS FORECAST TO CROSS OVER NE MN...BUT THE VERY DRY
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA SO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.
LOOK FOR A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

REMAINING NEAR SEASONABLE AND SUNNY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEKEND...THEN WARMING UP FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WORK WEEK UNTIL A
WEEK COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH ACROSS THE REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN RAIN SHOWERS. ANOTHER WARM UP
TOWARDS THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE ROCKIES
EARLY IN THE WORK WEEK LEADING TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. IN THIS NORTHWEST FLOW A WEAK CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED...BUT GIVEN FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE
WAY OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES WHEN IT MOVES THROUGH. TEMPS WILL WARM
UP TO THE 60S AND PERHAPS NEAR 70 BY TUESDAY...WITH WARMTH EXTENDING
EVEN UP TO THE LAKE SUPERIOR SHORELINE DUE TO THE WESTERLY WINDS. A
LITTLE BREEZY TUESDAY WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20-30 MPH AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH. AS THE
CLIPPER MOVES ACROSS THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS
AND INCREASING CLOUDS BEGINNING LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

NOT AS WARM WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...BUT THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL BEGIN TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT
PLAINS RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER AIR TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...THEN IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S FRIDAY. SKIES SUNNY AS THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SFC HIGH BUILDS EASTWARD...WITH THE
SFC HIGH OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  34  49  34 /   0   0   0   0
INL  57  33  58  30 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  59  37  58  35 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  57  35  56  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  51  32  48  34 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...AEG





000
FXUS63 KDLH 290552
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AT 330 PM...SKY COVER VARIED FROM PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...BUT IT REMAINED IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED TO SKIRT ALONG THE FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE NOT HAD ANY SURFACE REFLECTION ON OBSERVATIONS AT THIS POINT.

THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES. THINK SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 30S.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE FOUND AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY...AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 50S...BUT IT WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LONG TERM CONCERN IS THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR

IT WILL BE A REASONABLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  THE ONLY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN A CLIPPER
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOST OF
THE REGION.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN ONTARIO
NEAR HUDSON BAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
READINGS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH. THIS MAY CAUSE
SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITION ON LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND.
THE EAST- NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AWAY FORM THE LAKE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S ALONG THE
LAKE WITH 50S INLAND.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME BEHIND THE CLIPPER ON TUESDAY COOLING
THE TEMPS A LITTLE BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
60 INLAND BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECT HIGH AND
MID LEVEL CEILINGS OVERNIGHT...GIVING WAY TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  51  32  49 /   0   0   0   0
INL  31  57  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  33  58  36  57 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  32  57  34  57 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  32  51  33  50 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...AEG





000
FXUS63 KDLH 282354
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
654 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AT 330 PM...SKY COVER VARIED FROM PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...BUT IT REMAINED IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED TO SKIRT ALONG THE FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE NOT HAD ANY SURFACE REFLECTION ON OBSERVATIONS AT THIS POINT.

THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES. THINK SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 30S.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE FOUND AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY...AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 50S...BUT IT WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LONG TERM CONCERN IS THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR

IT WILL BE A REASONABLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  THE ONLY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN A CLIPPER
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOST OF
THE REGION.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN ONTARIO
NEAR HUDSON BAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
READINGS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH. THIS MAY CAUSE
SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITION ON LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND.
THE EAST- NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AWAY FORM THE LAKE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S ALONG THE
LAKE WITH 50S INLAND.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME BEHIND THE CLIPPER ON TUESDAY COOLING
THE TEMPS A LITTLE BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
60 INLAND BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KBRD TO KHYR
THIS EVENING. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...GIVING WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  51  32  49 /  10   0   0   0
INL  34  57  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  33  58  36  57 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  32  57  34  57 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  32  51  33  50 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     141>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 282354
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
654 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AT 330 PM...SKY COVER VARIED FROM PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...BUT IT REMAINED IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED TO SKIRT ALONG THE FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE NOT HAD ANY SURFACE REFLECTION ON OBSERVATIONS AT THIS POINT.

THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES. THINK SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 30S.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE FOUND AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY...AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 50S...BUT IT WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LONG TERM CONCERN IS THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR

IT WILL BE A REASONABLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  THE ONLY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN A CLIPPER
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOST OF
THE REGION.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN ONTARIO
NEAR HUDSON BAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
READINGS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH. THIS MAY CAUSE
SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITION ON LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND.
THE EAST- NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AWAY FORM THE LAKE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S ALONG THE
LAKE WITH 50S INLAND.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME BEHIND THE CLIPPER ON TUESDAY COOLING
THE TEMPS A LITTLE BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
60 INLAND BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 651 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. RAIN SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KBRD TO KHYR
THIS EVENING. HIGH AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS OVERNIGHT...GIVING WAY TO
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  51  32  49 /  10   0   0   0
INL  34  57  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  33  58  36  57 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  32  57  34  57 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  32  51  33  50 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     141>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 282035
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
335 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

AT 330 PM...SKY COVER VARIED FROM PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...TO MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE 50S...BUT IT REMAINED IN THE
30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS. A
FEW SHOWERS CONTINUED TO SKIRT ALONG THE FAR SOUTH...ALTHOUGH WE
HAVE NOT HAD ANY SURFACE REFLECTION ON OBSERVATIONS AT THIS POINT.

THE FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE CLOUD COVER...ALONG WITH OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPERATURES. THINK SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTH.
THERE COULD BE SOMEWHAT OF AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH
AND ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD GENERALLY
BE IN THE 30S.

PARTLY SUNNY SKIES SHOULD BE FOUND AREA-WIDE ON FRIDAY...AS A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD REGION. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 50S...BUT IT WILL REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 30S TO 40S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LONG TERM CONCERN IS THE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND WINDY
CONDITIONS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR

IT WILL BE A REASONABLY QUIET PERIOD FOR THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SKIES
WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A SLOW
WARMING TREND ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA.  THE ONLY PRECIPITATION THAT
MAY OCCUR WILL BE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY WHEN A CLIPPER
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TO MOST OF
THE REGION.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
FRIDAY AND SLOWLY MOVE EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY THE END OF
THE WEEKEND. WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN ONTARIO
NEAR HUDSON BAY...WINDS WILL BE GUSTY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WITH
READINGS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH. THIS MAY CAUSE
SOME SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITION ON LAKE SUPERIOR THIS WEEKEND.
THE EAST- NORTHEAST FLOW AROUND THE HIGH WILL BRING DRIER AIR
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 20S TO MID 30S ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA AWAY FORM THE LAKE. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 40S ALONG THE
LAKE WITH 50S INLAND.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL COME BEHIND THE CLIPPER ON TUESDAY COOLING
THE TEMPS A LITTLE BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PUSH TEMPS INTO THE
60 INLAND BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE BRD/HYR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE ENDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  51  32  49 /  10   0   0   0
INL  34  57  35  59 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  33  58  36  57 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  32  57  34  57 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  32  51  33  50 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     141>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART





000
FXUS63 KDLH 281809
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
109 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

***1230 PM TAF ISSUANCE FORECAST DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM***

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FROM SOUTHERN CROW WING TO
PINE COUNTIES IN MN...AND BURNETT AND WASHBURN COUNTIES IN WI.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
700-400MB DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION LIFTING NWWD INTO THE
AREA RESULTING IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AS SEEN ON RADAR. KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL LIQUID FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WHILE
AN OCCLUDED UPPER/SFC LOW WAS FOUND IN IOWA. PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WERE ROTATING NWWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY EWD TO NEAR PHILLIPS.
TRACE AMOUNTS TO 0.01 INCHES HAD OCCURRED. THIS IS DESPITE VERY DRY
AIR BEING OVER THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE TEENS UNDER THE
SHOWERS LEADING TO THE SMALL AMOUNTS. THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND GLANCE THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A TROF TONIGHT WHILE THE SFC LOW
DISSIPATES. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...ONE MORE ROUND OF ENERGY WILL
BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SE PORTION FOR
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT WITH
THE DRY AIR NEARBY. THE HIGH FINALLY PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY
WINDS...THEN WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. A
LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER DROPS
DOWN OUT OF MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MORE OF THE SAME WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.
WINDS RAMP UP SATURDAY AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE TWIN PORTS
AND ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR COASTLINE...BUT FARTHER INLAND ONLY
GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM...AND THUS EXPECT
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT COOLER IN THE 40S ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE.

NEXT WEEK WARMER TEMPERATURES DEVELOP AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE USUALLY THIS WOULD MEAN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...IN THIS CASE A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN WARMER IN MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...INCLUDING DOWN BY THE LAKE. THE ONE DOWNSIDE OF THIS SET-UP
WILL MEAN THAT A PARADE OF CLIPPERS WILL MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS A BIT BULLISH ON THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DID
NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH POSSIBLY RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS. ALSO ANOTHER LOWER
CHANCE FOR RAIN...BUT GIVEN THE DRY SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME RANGE. HIGHS
THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD CERTAINLY APPROACH 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE
MAY BE SOME SHOWERS ACROSS THE BRD/HYR TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE ENDING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  31  51  32 /  10  10   0   0
INL  55  34  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  51  33  58  36 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  50  32  57  34 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  45  32  51  33 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ141>143-146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...STEWART





000
FXUS63 KDLH 281136
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
636 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FROM SOUTHERN CROW WING TO
PINE COUNTIES IN MN...AND BURNETT AND WASHBURN COUNTIES IN WI.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
700-400MB DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION LIFTING NWWD INTO THE
AREA RESULTING IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AS SEEN ON RADAR. KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL LIQUID FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WHILE
AN OCCLUDED UPPER/SFC LOW WAS FOUND IN IOWA. PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WERE ROTATING NWWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY EWD TO NEAR PHILLIPS.
TRACE AMOUNTS TO 0.01 INCHES HAD OCCURRED. THIS IS DESPITE VERY DRY
AIR BEING OVER THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE TEENS UNDER THE
SHOWERS LEADING TO THE SMALL AMOUNTS. THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND GLANCE THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A TROF TONIGHT WHILE THE SFC LOW
DISSIPATES. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...ONE MORE ROUND OF ENERGY WILL
BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SE PORTION FOR
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT WITH
THE DRY AIR NEARBY. THE HIGH FINALLY PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY
WINDS...THEN WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. A
LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER DROPS
DOWN OUT OF MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MORE OF THE SAME WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.
WINDS RAMP UP SATURDAY AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE TWIN PORTS
AND ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR COASTLINE...BUT FARTHER INLAND ONLY
GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM...AND THUS EXPECT
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT COOLER IN THE 40S ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE.

NEXT WEEK WARMER TEMPERATURES DEVELOP AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE USUALLY THIS WOULD MEAN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...IN THIS CASE A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN WARMER IN MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...INCLUDING DOWN BY THE LAKE. THE ONE DOWNSIDE OF THIS SET-UP
WILL MEAN THAT A PARADE OF CLIPPERS WILL MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS A BIT BULLISH ON THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DID
NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH POSSIBLY RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS. ALSO ANOTHER LOWER
CHANCE FOR RAIN...BUT GIVEN THE DRY SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME RANGE. HIGHS
THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD CERTAINLY APPROACH 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS MAY IMPACT BRD AND HYR THROUGH THE MORNING...THEN HYR
AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR.
BREEZY EAST NORTHEAST WINDS AGAIN TODAY...STRONGEST IN THE TWIN
PORTS WHERE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...BUT THEN WINDS WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...BECOMING LIGHT TO NEAR CALM OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  31  51  32 /  10  10   0   0
INL  55  34  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  51  33  58  36 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  50  32  57  34 /  20  20   0   0
ASX  45  32  51  33 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ141>143-146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM





000
FXUS63 KDLH 281032
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
532 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 532 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

BUMPED UP POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FROM SOUTHERN CROW WING TO
PINE COUNTIES IN MN...AND BURNETT AND WASHBURN COUNTIES IN WI.
THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO AREA OF POSITIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION AND
700-400MB DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION LIFTING NWWD INTO THE
AREA RESULTING IN DEVELOPING SHOWERS AS SEEN ON RADAR. KEPT THE
PRECIPITATION TYPE ALL LIQUID FOR NOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WHILE
AN OCCLUDED UPPER/SFC LOW WAS FOUND IN IOWA. PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WERE ROTATING NWWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY EWD TO NEAR PHILLIPS.
TRACE AMOUNTS TO 0.01 INCHES HAD OCCURRED. THIS IS DESPITE VERY DRY
AIR BEING OVER THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE TEENS UNDER THE
SHOWERS LEADING TO THE SMALL AMOUNTS. THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND GLANCE THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A TROF TONIGHT WHILE THE SFC LOW
DISSIPATES. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...ONE MORE ROUND OF ENERGY WILL
BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SE PORTION FOR
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT WITH
THE DRY AIR NEARBY. THE HIGH FINALLY PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY
WINDS...THEN WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. A
LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER DROPS
DOWN OUT OF MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MORE OF THE SAME WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.
WINDS RAMP UP SATURDAY AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE TWIN PORTS
AND ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR COASTLINE...BUT FARTHER INLAND ONLY
GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM...AND THUS EXPECT
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT COOLER IN THE 40S ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE.

NEXT WEEK WARMER TEMPERATURES DEVELOP AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE USUALLY THIS WOULD MEAN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...IN THIS CASE A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN WARMER IN MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...INCLUDING DOWN BY THE LAKE. THE ONE DOWNSIDE OF THIS SET-UP
WILL MEAN THAT A PARADE OF CLIPPERS WILL MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS A BIT BULLISH ON THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DID
NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH POSSIBLY RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS. ALSO ANOTHER LOWER
CHANCE FOR RAIN...BUT GIVEN THE DRY SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME RANGE. HIGHS
THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD CERTAINLY APPROACH 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS AT
KDLH/KBRD OVERNIGHT. GUSTS WILL DEVELOP AT KHIB AND KHYR AROUND
14Z...AND CONTINUE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KINL UNTIL 21Z-02Z. KHYR
AND KBRD MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER
AROUND KHYR UNTIL 21Z PER THE LATEST GFS/NAM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AS EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARDS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM WESTERN IOWA.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  31  51  32 /  10  10   0   0
INL  55  34  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  51  33  58  36 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  50  32  57  34 /  20  20   0   0
ASX  45  32  51  33 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ141>143-146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ144-145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...WL





000
FXUS63 KDLH 280736
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
236 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WHILE
AN OCCLUDED UPPER/SFC LOW WAS FOUND IN IOWA. PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WERE ROTATING NWWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY EWD TO NEAR PHILLIPS.
TRACE AMOUNTS TO 0.01 INCHES HAD OCCURRED. THIS IS DESPITE VERY DRY
AIR BEING OVER THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE TEENS UNDER THE
SHOWERS LEADING TO THE SMALL AMOUNTS. THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND GLANCE THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A TROF TONIGHT WHILE THE SFC LOW
DISSIPATES. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...ONE MORE ROUND OF ENERGY WILL
BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SE PORTION FOR
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT WITH
THE DRY AIR NEARBY. THE HIGH FINALLY PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY
WINDS...THEN WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. A
LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER DROPS
DOWN OUT OF MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MORE OF THE SAME WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.
WINDS RAMP UP SATURDAY AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE TWIN PORTS
AND ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR COASTLINE...BUT FARTHER INLAND ONLY
GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM...AND THUS EXPECT
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT COOLER IN THE 40S ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE.

NEXT WEEK WARMER TEMPERATURES DEVELOP AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE USUALLY THIS WOULD MEAN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...IN THIS CASE A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN WARMER IN MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...INCLUDING DOWN BY THE LAKE. THE ONE DOWNSIDE OF THIS SET-UP
WILL MEAN THAT A PARADE OF CLIPPERS WILL MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS A BIT BULLISH ON THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DID
NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH POSSIBLY RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS. ALSO ANOTHER LOWER
CHANCE FOR RAIN...BUT GIVEN THE DRY SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME RANGE. HIGHS
THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD CERTAINLY APPROACH 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS AT
KDLH/KBRD OVERNIGHT. GUSTS WILL DEVELOP AT KHIB AND KHYR AROUND
14Z...AND CONTINUE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KINL UNTIL 21Z-02Z. KHYR
AND KBRD MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER
AROUND KHYR UNTIL 21Z PER THE LATEST GFS/NAM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AS EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARDS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM WESTERN IOWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  31  51  32 /  10  10   0   0
INL  55  34  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  51  33  58  36 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  50  32  57  34 /  20  20   0   0
ASX  45  32  51  33 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ143>146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ141-142-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...WL





000
FXUS63 KDLH 280736
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
236 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUED TO BE ANCHORED OVER NORTHERN MANITOBA WHILE
AN OCCLUDED UPPER/SFC LOW WAS FOUND IN IOWA. PIECES OF UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY WERE ROTATING NWWD FROM THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WAS PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS FROM THE
BRAINERD LAKES TO THE ST. CROIX RIVER VALLEY EWD TO NEAR PHILLIPS.
TRACE AMOUNTS TO 0.01 INCHES HAD OCCURRED. THIS IS DESPITE VERY DRY
AIR BEING OVER THE REGION. DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE TEENS UNDER THE
SHOWERS LEADING TO THE SMALL AMOUNTS. THESE PIECES OF ENERGY WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW AND GLANCE THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE POPS TO
REFLECT THIS. RAIN AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT DUE TO THE DRY AIR IN
PLACE.

THE CLOSED UPPER LOW OPENS INTO A TROF TONIGHT WHILE THE SFC LOW
DISSIPATES. BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...ONE MORE ROUND OF ENERGY WILL
BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME MORE SHOWERS OVER THE SE PORTION FOR
THE FORECAST AREA IN THE EVENING. AMOUNTS WILL AGAIN BE LIGHT WITH
THE DRY AIR NEARBY. THE HIGH FINALLY PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT AS THE
REMNANTS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM MOVES EAST INTO THE LOWER
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE COVERS THE REGION ON FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

SEASONABLE AND MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH EASTERLY
WINDS...THEN WARMER AS WINDS SHIFT TO BECOME OUT OF THE NORTHWEST. A
LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A CLIPPER DROPS
DOWN OUT OF MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO...BUT OTHERWISE DRY
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FOR THE WEEKEND...MORE OF THE SAME WITH EASTERLY FLOW AT LOW LEVELS.
WINDS RAMP UP SATURDAY AS A LOW DEEPENS OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS PARKED NEAR HUDSON BAY.
BREEZY AT TIMES WITH GUSTS TO 30-40 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE TWIN PORTS
AND ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR COASTLINE...BUT FARTHER INLAND ONLY
GUSTING TO 20-30 MPH. THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL
REMAIN FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM...AND THUS EXPECT
MAINLY SUNNY SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT COOLER IN THE 40S ALONG THE
LAKE SHORE.

NEXT WEEK WARMER TEMPERATURES DEVELOP AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS RESULTING IN A NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST. WHILE USUALLY THIS WOULD MEAN COOLER
TEMPERATURES...IN THIS CASE A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL RESULT IN WARMER IN MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST...INCLUDING DOWN BY THE LAKE. THE ONE DOWNSIDE OF THIS SET-UP
WILL MEAN THAT A PARADE OF CLIPPERS WILL MAKES ITS WAY SOUTH ACROSS
MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN. EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE
GFS IS A BIT BULLISH ON THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...BUT DID
NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE A MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT. A STRONGER UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH POSSIBLY RESULTING IN COOLER TEMPS. ALSO ANOTHER LOWER
CHANCE FOR RAIN...BUT GIVEN THE DRY SOUNDINGS FROM THE GFS/ECMWF
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MUCH CHANCE FOR PRECIP AT THIS TIME RANGE. HIGHS
THROUGH MID WEEK WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S...BUT A FEW LOCATIONS
COULD CERTAINLY APPROACH 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS AT
KDLH/KBRD OVERNIGHT. GUSTS WILL DEVELOP AT KHIB AND KHYR AROUND
14Z...AND CONTINUE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KINL UNTIL 21Z-02Z. KHYR
AND KBRD MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER
AROUND KHYR UNTIL 21Z PER THE LATEST GFS/NAM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AS EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARDS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM WESTERN IOWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  44  31  51  32 /  10  10   0   0
INL  55  34  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  51  33  58  36 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  50  32  57  34 /  20  20   0   0
ASX  45  32  51  33 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ143>146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ141-142-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...WL





000
FXUS63 KDLH 280556
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1256 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

00Z KINL SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY AND RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE
SHOWN VERY DRY AIR PRESENT BELOW 700 MB THIS EVENING. DESPITE
THIS DRY AIR...LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...FROM FAR SOUTHERN CROW WING COUNTY INTO THE SIREN AREA AND
POINTS SOUTHEAST. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
UPPER LOW IN WESTERN IOWA/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOME LOW LEVEL FGEN
WERE AIDING IN PRODUCING THE RAIN. THE FGEN IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WE ADJUSTED POPS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREA
TONIGHT...AND MIX IN SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT AS WETBULB TEMPERATURES
DROP. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

AT 330 PM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES VARIED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MID 50S IN MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. AT 333
PM...GUSTS WERE 35 KNOTS AT SKY HARBOR IN DULUTH.

THE NORTHLAND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BRING A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
SOME OF THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SPILLING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS IN THAT AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S INLAND AND 30S AND 40S LAKESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE NORTHLAND. 00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH A 500MB
LOW DIGGING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. THIS LEAVES QUIET FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND... AND WILL ALLOW SFC DISTURBANCES TO PASS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM
THE HUDSON BAY. A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE MIX FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF THE BROAD SFC HIGH WILL CREATE CLOCKWISE
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES... MEANING PROLONGED CHILLY EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND
APPROACHING 60 FARTHER INLAND.

THE PATTERN CHANGES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ECMWF/GFS/DGEX INDICATE A CANADIAN DISTURBANCE
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AT
THIS TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE GOOD NEWS IS... A WARM
UP IS IN SIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY... WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 70 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1256 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH GUSTY WINDS AT
KDLH/KBRD OVERNIGHT. GUSTS WILL DEVELOP AT KHIB AND KHYR AROUND
14Z...AND CONTINUE AT ALL SITES EXCEPT FOR KINL UNTIL 21Z-02Z. KHYR
AND KBRD MAY SEE A FEW SHOWERS TONIGHT...AND SHOWERS MAY LINGER
AROUND KHYR UNTIL 21Z PER THE LATEST GFS/NAM. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT
THIS POINT AS EXPECTING SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE WIDELY SCATTERED AS
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES NORTHEASTWARDS INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND SOUTHERN WISCONSIN FROM WESTERN IOWA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  44  32  51 /  10  10   0   0
INL  32  54  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  36  51  34  58 /  50  20   0   0
HYR  34  51  31  58 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  32  44  32  51 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ143>146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 4 PM CDT THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR LSZ141-142-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL





000
FXUS63 KDLH 280246
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
946 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

00Z KINL SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY AND RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE
SHOWN VERY DRY AIR PRESENT BELOW 700 MB THIS EVENING. DESPITE
THIS DRY AIR...LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...FROM FAR SOUTHERN CROW WING COUNTY INTO THE SIREN AREA AND
POINTS SOUTHEAST. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
UPPER LOW IN WESTERN IOWA/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOME LOW LEVEL FGEN
WERE AIDING IN PRODUCING THE RAIN. THE FGEN IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WE ADJUSTED POPS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREA
TONIGHT...AND MIX IN SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT AS WETBULB TEMPERATURES
DROP. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

AT 330 PM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES VARIED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MID 50S IN MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. AT 333
PM...GUSTS WERE 35 KNOTS AT SKY HARBOR IN DULUTH.

THE NORTHLAND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BRING A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
SOME OF THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SPILLING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS IN THAT AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S INLAND AND 30S AND 40S LAKESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE NORTHLAND. 00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH A 500MB
LOW DIGGING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. THIS LEAVES QUIET FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND... AND WILL ALLOW SFC DISTURBANCES TO PASS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM
THE HUDSON BAY. A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE MIX FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF THE BROAD SFC HIGH WILL CREATE CLOCKWISE
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES... MEANING PROLONGED CHILLY EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND
APPROACHING 60 FARTHER INLAND.

THE PATTERN CHANGES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ECMWF/GFS/DGEX INDICATE A CANADIAN DISTURBANCE
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AT
THIS TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE GOOD NEWS IS... A WARM
UP IS IN SIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY... WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 70 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF CYCLE. MAIN
CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE HIGH BUILDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
CANADA...AND THE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY AS MIXED
LAYER PERSISTS OVERNIGHT AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR. WITH THE WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER NORTH. THINK THAT KHIB/KINL WILL SEE
THE MIXED LAYER DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...PER THE LATEST NAM/DLHWRF.
WINDS WILL LESSEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  44  32  51 /   0  10   0   0
INL  30  54  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  35  51  34  58 /  30  20   0   0
HYR  32  51  31  58 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  31  44  32  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ143>146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ141-
     142-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL





000
FXUS63 KDLH 280246
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
946 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

00Z KINL SOUNDING WAS VERY DRY AND RAP SOUNDINGS HAVE
SHOWN VERY DRY AIR PRESENT BELOW 700 MB THIS EVENING. DESPITE
THIS DRY AIR...LIGHT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...FROM FAR SOUTHERN CROW WING COUNTY INTO THE SIREN AREA AND
POINTS SOUTHEAST. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING NORTH OUT OF THE
UPPER LOW IN WESTERN IOWA/EASTERN NEBRASKA AND SOME LOW LEVEL FGEN
WERE AIDING IN PRODUCING THE RAIN. THE FGEN IS FORECAST TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. WE ADJUSTED POPS OVER OUR FAR SOUTHERN AREA
TONIGHT...AND MIX IN SOME SNOW OVERNIGHT AS WETBULB TEMPERATURES
DROP. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

AT 330 PM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES VARIED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MID 50S IN MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. AT 333
PM...GUSTS WERE 35 KNOTS AT SKY HARBOR IN DULUTH.

THE NORTHLAND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BRING A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
SOME OF THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SPILLING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS IN THAT AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S INLAND AND 30S AND 40S LAKESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE NORTHLAND. 00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH A 500MB
LOW DIGGING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. THIS LEAVES QUIET FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND... AND WILL ALLOW SFC DISTURBANCES TO PASS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM
THE HUDSON BAY. A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE MIX FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF THE BROAD SFC HIGH WILL CREATE CLOCKWISE
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES... MEANING PROLONGED CHILLY EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND
APPROACHING 60 FARTHER INLAND.

THE PATTERN CHANGES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ECMWF/GFS/DGEX INDICATE A CANADIAN DISTURBANCE
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AT
THIS TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE GOOD NEWS IS... A WARM
UP IS IN SIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY... WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 70 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF CYCLE. MAIN
CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE HIGH BUILDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
CANADA...AND THE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY AS MIXED
LAYER PERSISTS OVERNIGHT AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR. WITH THE WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER NORTH. THINK THAT KHIB/KINL WILL SEE
THE MIXED LAYER DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...PER THE LATEST NAM/DLHWRF.
WINDS WILL LESSEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  44  32  51 /   0  10   0   0
INL  30  54  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  35  51  34  58 /  30  20   0   0
HYR  32  51  31  58 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  31  44  32  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ143>146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ141-
     142-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL





000
FXUS63 KDLH 272349
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

AT 330 PM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES VARIED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MID 50S IN MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. AT 333
PM...GUSTS WERE 35 KNOTS AT SKY HARBOR IN DULUTH.

THE NORTHLAND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BRING A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
SOME OF THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SPILLING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS IN THAT AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S INLAND AND 30S AND 40S LAKESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE NORTHLAND. 00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH A 500MB
LOW DIGGING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. THIS LEAVES QUIET FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND... AND WILL ALLOW SFC DISTURBANCES TO PASS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM
THE HUDSON BAY. A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE MIX FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF THE BROAD SFC HIGH WILL CREATE CLOCKWISE
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES... MEANING PROLONGED CHILLY EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND
APPROACHING 60 FARTHER INLAND.

THE PATTERN CHANGES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ECMWF/GFS/DGEX INDICATE A CANADIAN DISTURBANCE
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AT
THIS TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE GOOD NEWS IS... A WARM
UP IS IN SIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY... WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 70 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING TAF CYCLE. MAIN
CONCERN DURING THE PERIOD IS GUSTY WINDS DUE TO THE TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT DUE TO THE HIGH BUILDING OVER NORTH CENTRAL
CANADA...AND THE LOW MOVING NORTHEASTWARDS FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. EXPECTING WINDS TO REMAIN GUSTY AS MIXED
LAYER PERSISTS OVERNIGHT AT KDLH/KBRD/KHYR. WITH THE WEAKER
PRESSURE GRADIENT FARTHER NORTH. THINK THAT KHIB/KINL WILL SEE
THE MIXED LAYER DECOUPLE OVERNIGHT...PER THE LATEST NAM/DLHWRF.
WINDS WILL LESSEN TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  44  32  51 /   0  10   0   0
INL  28  54  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  33  51  34  58 /  20  20   0   0
HYR  31  51  31  58 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  29  44  32  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ142-143-
     146-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     LSZ141>143-146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ144-145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...WL





000
FXUS63 KDLH 272053
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
353 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

AT 330 PM...SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF
THE CWA...AND MOSTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES VARIED CONSIDERABLY...WITH MID 50S IN MANY INLAND
LOCATIONS...AND UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S NEAR THE SHORES OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUED ACROSS THE AREA...WITH
GUSTS INTO THE 30 TO 40 MPH RANGE NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. AT 333
PM...GUSTS WERE 35 KNOTS AT SKY HARBOR IN DULUTH.

THE NORTHLAND WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE QUIET ACROSS THE REGION
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ROTATING TO THE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE REGION WILL LIKELY BRING A BIT OF AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...MAINLY TO THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.
SOME OF THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS SPILLING INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...SO
WILL MAINTAIN SMALL POPS IN THAT AREA.

LOWS TONIGHT WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 20S NORTH AND 30S SOUTH. HIGHS
ON THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S INLAND AND 30S AND 40S LAKESIDE.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS IMPACTING THE NORTHLAND. 00Z FRIDAY STARTS OUT WITH A 500MB
LOW DIGGING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. WITH A SUBTROPICAL JET
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.. THIS LEAVES QUIET FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND... AND WILL ALLOW SFC DISTURBANCES TO PASS WELL TO OUR
SOUTH AS BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTHWARD FROM
THE HUDSON BAY. A DRY FORECAST IS IN THE MIX FROM FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE PLACEMENT OF THE BROAD SFC HIGH WILL CREATE CLOCKWISE
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES... MEANING PROLONGED CHILLY EASTERLY FLOW
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S NEAR THE LAKE AND
APPROACHING 60 FARTHER INLAND.

THE PATTERN CHANGES MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS EASTWARD AND ECMWF/GFS/DGEX INDICATE A CANADIAN DISTURBANCE
SHIFTING SOUTHWARD TO THE NORTHLAND. JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OF RAIN AT
THIS TIME FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND. THE GOOD NEWS IS... A WARM
UP IS IN SIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING WESTERLY... WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 70 BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 106 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE 24 HOUR PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. WITH AN ELONGATED MIXING BOUNDARY (EVIDENCED
ON FCST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS) LASTING FOR MUCH OF THE DAY UNTIL LATE
THIS EVENING... GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL HAVE THE ABILITY TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL LESSEN EARLY THURS MORNING BUT MAY
BECOME GUSTY AGAIN AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  44  32  51 /   0  10   0   0
INL  28  54  35  56 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  33  51  34  58 /  20  20   0   0
HYR  31  51  31  58 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  29  44  32  51 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ142-143-
     146-148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR
     LSZ141>143-146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ144-145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 6 PM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MCLOVIN
AVIATION...MCLOVIN





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