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000
FXUS63 KDLH 270519
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1219 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WITH NARROW SFC HIGH REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...WITH WIDESPREAD RH
VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
AIR/LOW DEW PTS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN
TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. SOME TEENS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES (KIWD) DUE TO A VORT MAX
THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE
MICHIGAN IN THE CYCLONIC WRAP FLOW AROUND A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OFF
THE EAST COAST. THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...FOR LOCATIONS IN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...SHORT
RANGE/HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MOISTURE AXIS TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT-OFF FROM
WARM/DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS...TO COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY THEN DRY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND UNTIL
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. OVERALL A WARM AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEEKEND...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY DAY. PRECIP
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH NO DAY LOOKING LIKE A
WASH OUT AT THIS POINT.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WHILE GUIDANCE HAD SEEMED TO BE COMING TO A MORE WET
CONSENSUS...IT APPEARS MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION AND INSTEAD ARE BACK TO A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AS THEY CROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. ECMWF IS AND HAS BEEN
THE OUTLIER...BUT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. BEYOND THIS THE RECENT GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SPLITS OFF WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD RESULT IS COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL EXPECT
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS.

WED/THURS...DRY AND WARMING AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE/TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD TO IN THE 60S INLAND...APPROACHING 70 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS LEECH LAKE TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH...THIS TIME LOCATED FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM HERE ON OUT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATTERN IS GENERALLY UNSTABLE AND WARM WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY OF THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS POINT
TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PRECIP...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS EACH
DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SOME GUSTS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DEEPER MIXING. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOME MID CLOUDS TO KINL
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  62  39  59 /   0  20  10  10
INL  42  61  37  64 /  40  30   0   0
BRD  43  66  40  67 /  20  40   0   0
HYR  37  64  38  63 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  32  61  35  57 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 270519
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1219 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WITH NARROW SFC HIGH REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...WITH WIDESPREAD RH
VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
AIR/LOW DEW PTS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN
TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. SOME TEENS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES (KIWD) DUE TO A VORT MAX
THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE
MICHIGAN IN THE CYCLONIC WRAP FLOW AROUND A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OFF
THE EAST COAST. THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...FOR LOCATIONS IN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...SHORT
RANGE/HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MOISTURE AXIS TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT-OFF FROM
WARM/DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS...TO COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY THEN DRY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND UNTIL
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. OVERALL A WARM AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEEKEND...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY DAY. PRECIP
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH NO DAY LOOKING LIKE A
WASH OUT AT THIS POINT.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WHILE GUIDANCE HAD SEEMED TO BE COMING TO A MORE WET
CONSENSUS...IT APPEARS MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION AND INSTEAD ARE BACK TO A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AS THEY CROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. ECMWF IS AND HAS BEEN
THE OUTLIER...BUT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. BEYOND THIS THE RECENT GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SPLITS OFF WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD RESULT IS COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL EXPECT
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS.

WED/THURS...DRY AND WARMING AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE/TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD TO IN THE 60S INLAND...APPROACHING 70 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS LEECH LAKE TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH...THIS TIME LOCATED FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM HERE ON OUT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATTERN IS GENERALLY UNSTABLE AND WARM WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY OF THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS POINT
TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PRECIP...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS EACH
DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SOME GUSTS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DEEPER MIXING. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOME MID CLOUDS TO KINL
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  62  39  59 /   0  20  10  10
INL  42  61  37  64 /  40  30   0   0
BRD  43  66  40  67 /  20  40   0   0
HYR  37  64  38  63 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  32  61  35  57 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 270519
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1219 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WITH NARROW SFC HIGH REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...WITH WIDESPREAD RH
VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
AIR/LOW DEW PTS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN
TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. SOME TEENS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES (KIWD) DUE TO A VORT MAX
THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE
MICHIGAN IN THE CYCLONIC WRAP FLOW AROUND A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OFF
THE EAST COAST. THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...FOR LOCATIONS IN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...SHORT
RANGE/HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MOISTURE AXIS TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT-OFF FROM
WARM/DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS...TO COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY THEN DRY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND UNTIL
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. OVERALL A WARM AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEEKEND...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY DAY. PRECIP
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH NO DAY LOOKING LIKE A
WASH OUT AT THIS POINT.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WHILE GUIDANCE HAD SEEMED TO BE COMING TO A MORE WET
CONSENSUS...IT APPEARS MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION AND INSTEAD ARE BACK TO A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AS THEY CROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. ECMWF IS AND HAS BEEN
THE OUTLIER...BUT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. BEYOND THIS THE RECENT GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SPLITS OFF WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD RESULT IS COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL EXPECT
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS.

WED/THURS...DRY AND WARMING AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE/TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD TO IN THE 60S INLAND...APPROACHING 70 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS LEECH LAKE TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH...THIS TIME LOCATED FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM HERE ON OUT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATTERN IS GENERALLY UNSTABLE AND WARM WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY OF THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS POINT
TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PRECIP...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS EACH
DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SOME GUSTS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DEEPER MIXING. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOME MID CLOUDS TO KINL
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  62  39  59 /   0  20  10  10
INL  42  61  37  64 /  40  30   0   0
BRD  43  66  40  67 /  20  40   0   0
HYR  37  64  38  63 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  32  61  35  57 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 270519
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1219 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WITH NARROW SFC HIGH REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...WITH WIDESPREAD RH
VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
AIR/LOW DEW PTS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN
TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. SOME TEENS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES (KIWD) DUE TO A VORT MAX
THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE
MICHIGAN IN THE CYCLONIC WRAP FLOW AROUND A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OFF
THE EAST COAST. THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...FOR LOCATIONS IN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...SHORT
RANGE/HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MOISTURE AXIS TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT-OFF FROM
WARM/DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS...TO COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY THEN DRY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND UNTIL
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. OVERALL A WARM AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEEKEND...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY DAY. PRECIP
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH NO DAY LOOKING LIKE A
WASH OUT AT THIS POINT.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WHILE GUIDANCE HAD SEEMED TO BE COMING TO A MORE WET
CONSENSUS...IT APPEARS MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION AND INSTEAD ARE BACK TO A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AS THEY CROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. ECMWF IS AND HAS BEEN
THE OUTLIER...BUT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. BEYOND THIS THE RECENT GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SPLITS OFF WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD RESULT IS COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL EXPECT
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS.

WED/THURS...DRY AND WARMING AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE/TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD TO IN THE 60S INLAND...APPROACHING 70 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS LEECH LAKE TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH...THIS TIME LOCATED FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM HERE ON OUT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATTERN IS GENERALLY UNSTABLE AND WARM WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY OF THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS POINT
TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PRECIP...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS EACH
DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1219 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. SOME GUSTS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH DEEPER MIXING. A COLD FRONT WILL SPREAD SOME MID CLOUDS TO KINL
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  62  39  59 /   0  20  10  10
INL  42  61  37  64 /  40  30   0   0
BRD  43  66  40  67 /  20  40   0   0
HYR  37  64  38  63 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  32  61  35  57 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 262346
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
646 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WITH NARROW SFC HIGH REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...WITH WIDESPREAD RH
VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
AIR/LOW DEW PTS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN
TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. SOME TEENS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES (KIWD) DUE TO A VORT MAX
THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE
MICHIGAN IN THE CYCLONIC WRAP FLOW AROUND A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OFF
THE EAST COAST. THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...FOR LOCATIONS IN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...SHORT
RANGE/HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MOISTURE AXIS TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT-OFF FROM
WARM/DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS...TO COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY THEN DRY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND UNTIL
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. OVERALL A WARM AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEEKEND...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY DAY. PRECIP
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH NO DAY LOOKING LIKE A
WASH OUT AT THIS POINT.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WHILE GUIDANCE HAD SEEMED TO BE COMING TO A MORE WET
CONSENSUS...IT APPEARS MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION AND INSTEAD ARE BACK TO A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AS THEY CROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. ECMWF IS AND HAS BEEN
THE OUTLIER...BUT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. BEYOND THIS THE RECENT GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SPLITS OFF WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD RESULT IS COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL EXPECT
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS.

WED/THURS...DRY AND WARMING AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE/TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD TO IN THE 60S INLAND...APPROACHING 70 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS LEECH LAKE TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH...THIS TIME LOCATED FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM HERE ON OUT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATTERN IS GENERALLY UNSTABLE AND WARM WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY OF THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS POINT
TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PRECIP...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS EACH
DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND REMAIN VARIABLE WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY. SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25  60  40  62 /   0   0   0  20
INL  26  69  42  61 /   0  10  40  30
BRD  28  68  43  66 /   0   0  20  40
HYR  23  64  37  64 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  26  57  32  61 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 262346
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
646 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WITH NARROW SFC HIGH REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...WITH WIDESPREAD RH
VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
AIR/LOW DEW PTS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN
TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. SOME TEENS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES (KIWD) DUE TO A VORT MAX
THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE
MICHIGAN IN THE CYCLONIC WRAP FLOW AROUND A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OFF
THE EAST COAST. THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...FOR LOCATIONS IN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...SHORT
RANGE/HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MOISTURE AXIS TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT-OFF FROM
WARM/DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS...TO COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY THEN DRY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND UNTIL
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. OVERALL A WARM AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEEKEND...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY DAY. PRECIP
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH NO DAY LOOKING LIKE A
WASH OUT AT THIS POINT.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WHILE GUIDANCE HAD SEEMED TO BE COMING TO A MORE WET
CONSENSUS...IT APPEARS MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION AND INSTEAD ARE BACK TO A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AS THEY CROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. ECMWF IS AND HAS BEEN
THE OUTLIER...BUT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. BEYOND THIS THE RECENT GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SPLITS OFF WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD RESULT IS COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL EXPECT
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS.

WED/THURS...DRY AND WARMING AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE/TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD TO IN THE 60S INLAND...APPROACHING 70 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS LEECH LAKE TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH...THIS TIME LOCATED FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM HERE ON OUT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATTERN IS GENERALLY UNSTABLE AND WARM WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY OF THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS POINT
TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PRECIP...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS EACH
DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND REMAIN VARIABLE WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY. SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25  60  40  62 /   0   0   0  20
INL  26  69  42  61 /   0  10  40  30
BRD  28  68  43  66 /   0   0  20  40
HYR  23  64  37  64 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  26  57  32  61 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 262346
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
646 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WITH NARROW SFC HIGH REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...WITH WIDESPREAD RH
VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
AIR/LOW DEW PTS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN
TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. SOME TEENS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES (KIWD) DUE TO A VORT MAX
THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE
MICHIGAN IN THE CYCLONIC WRAP FLOW AROUND A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OFF
THE EAST COAST. THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...FOR LOCATIONS IN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...SHORT
RANGE/HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MOISTURE AXIS TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT-OFF FROM
WARM/DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS...TO COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY THEN DRY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND UNTIL
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. OVERALL A WARM AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEEKEND...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY DAY. PRECIP
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH NO DAY LOOKING LIKE A
WASH OUT AT THIS POINT.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WHILE GUIDANCE HAD SEEMED TO BE COMING TO A MORE WET
CONSENSUS...IT APPEARS MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION AND INSTEAD ARE BACK TO A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AS THEY CROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. ECMWF IS AND HAS BEEN
THE OUTLIER...BUT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. BEYOND THIS THE RECENT GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SPLITS OFF WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD RESULT IS COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL EXPECT
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS.

WED/THURS...DRY AND WARMING AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE/TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD TO IN THE 60S INLAND...APPROACHING 70 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS LEECH LAKE TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH...THIS TIME LOCATED FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM HERE ON OUT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATTERN IS GENERALLY UNSTABLE AND WARM WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY OF THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS POINT
TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PRECIP...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS EACH
DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND REMAIN VARIABLE WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY. SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25  60  40  62 /   0   0   0  20
INL  26  69  42  61 /   0  10  40  30
BRD  28  68  43  66 /   0   0  20  40
HYR  23  64  37  64 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  26  57  32  61 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 262346
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
646 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WITH NARROW SFC HIGH REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...WITH WIDESPREAD RH
VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
AIR/LOW DEW PTS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN
TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. SOME TEENS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES (KIWD) DUE TO A VORT MAX
THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE
MICHIGAN IN THE CYCLONIC WRAP FLOW AROUND A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OFF
THE EAST COAST. THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...FOR LOCATIONS IN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...SHORT
RANGE/HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MOISTURE AXIS TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT-OFF FROM
WARM/DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS...TO COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY THEN DRY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND UNTIL
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. OVERALL A WARM AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEEKEND...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY DAY. PRECIP
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH NO DAY LOOKING LIKE A
WASH OUT AT THIS POINT.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WHILE GUIDANCE HAD SEEMED TO BE COMING TO A MORE WET
CONSENSUS...IT APPEARS MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION AND INSTEAD ARE BACK TO A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AS THEY CROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. ECMWF IS AND HAS BEEN
THE OUTLIER...BUT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. BEYOND THIS THE RECENT GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SPLITS OFF WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD RESULT IS COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL EXPECT
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS.

WED/THURS...DRY AND WARMING AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE/TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD TO IN THE 60S INLAND...APPROACHING 70 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS LEECH LAKE TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH...THIS TIME LOCATED FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM HERE ON OUT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATTERN IS GENERALLY UNSTABLE AND WARM WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY OF THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS POINT
TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PRECIP...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS EACH
DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AND REMAIN VARIABLE WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS MAINLY LESS THAN 10 KNOTS ON MONDAY. SOME AFTERNOON GUSTS TO
15 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25  60  40  62 /   0   0   0  20
INL  26  69  42  61 /   0  10  40  30
BRD  28  68  43  66 /   0   0  20  40
HYR  23  64  37  64 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  26  57  32  61 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 262029
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
329 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WITH NARROW SFC HIGH REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...WITH WIDESPREAD RH
VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
AIR/LOW DEW PTS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN
TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. SOME TEENS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES (KIWD) DUE TO A VORT MAX
THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE
MICHIGAN IN THE CYCLONIC WRAP FLOW AROUND A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OFF
THE EAST COAST. THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...FOR LOCATIONS IN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...SHORT
RANGE/HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MOISTURE AXIS TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT-OFF FROM
WARM/DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS...TO COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY THEN DRY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND UNTIL
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. OVERALL A WARM AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEEKEND...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY DAY. PRECIP
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH NO DAY LOOKING LIKE A
WASH OUT AT THIS POINT.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WHILE GUIDANCE HAD SEEMED TO BE COMING TO A MORE WET
CONSENSUS...IT APPEARS MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION AND INSTEAD ARE BACK TO A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AS THEY CROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. ECMWF IS AND HAS BEEN
THE OUTLIER...BUT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. BEYOND THIS THE RECENT GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SPLITS OFF WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD RESULT IS COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL EXPECT
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS.

WED/THURS...DRY AND WARMING AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE/TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD TO IN THE 60S INLAND...APPROACHING 70 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS LEECH LAKE TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH...THIS TIME LOCATED FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM HERE ON OUT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATTERN IS GENERALLY UNSTABLE AND WARM WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY OF THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS POINT
TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PRECIP...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS EACH
DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...LESS THAN 10 KTS...BECOMING NEAR-CALM
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25  60  40  62 /   0   0   0  20
INL  26  69  42  61 /   0  10  40  30
BRD  28  68  43  66 /   0   0  20  40
HYR  23  64  37  64 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  26  57  32  61 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 262029
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
329 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE WITH NARROW SFC HIGH REFLECTION WILL SLOWLY
DRIFT EAST OVER THE WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.

THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON
HAVE ALLOWED DEW POINTS TO FALL INTO THE TEENS...WITH WIDESPREAD RH
VALUES IN THE 15 TO 25 PERCENT RANGE. THE COMBINATION OF DRY
AIR/LOW DEW PTS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL PROMOTE
STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING OVERNIGHT. HAVE LOWERED MIN
TEMPERATURES BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS FCST...WITH MOST
LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S. SOME TEENS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE RIGHT ALONG THE RIDGE AXIS.

MONDAY WILL BE WARMER...WITH ANOTHER DAY OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITY
AND LIGHT WINDS. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT LATE
TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES (KIWD) DUE TO A VORT MAX
THAT WILL DROP SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/LAKE
MICHIGAN IN THE CYCLONIC WRAP FLOW AROUND A LARGE CUT OFF LOW OFF
THE EAST COAST. THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS/SHOWERS...AND MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE...FOR LOCATIONS IN UPPER
MICHIGAN AND FAR EASTERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS TIME...SHORT
RANGE/HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MOISTURE AXIS TO THE
EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUT-OFF FROM
WARM/DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS...TO COOL AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS
ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CHANCE FOR RAIN TUESDAY THEN DRY AND A GRADUAL WARMING TREND UNTIL
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. OVERALL A WARM AND
MOSTLY SUNNY WEEKEND...BUT SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ANY DAY. PRECIP
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT...WITH NO DAY LOOKING LIKE A
WASH OUT AT THIS POINT.

LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST. WHILE GUIDANCE HAD SEEMED TO BE COMING TO A MORE WET
CONSENSUS...IT APPEARS MOST MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF THIS TYPE OF
SOLUTION AND INSTEAD ARE BACK TO A COLD FRONT WITH SHOWERS
DIMINISHING AS THEY CROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. ECMWF IS AND HAS BEEN
THE OUTLIER...BUT HAS BEEN VERY CONSISTENT WITH ITS MORE WIDESPREAD
PRECIP. BEYOND THIS THE RECENT GUIDANCE IS DEPICTING THE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE SPLITS OFF WITH MUCH OF THE ENERGY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD RESULT IN
STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS
NORTHWEST FLOW WOULD RESULT IS COOLER TEMPS...BUT STILL EXPECT
RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS.

WED/THURS...DRY AND WARMING AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE/TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD TO IN THE 60S INLAND...APPROACHING 70 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
SUCH AS LEECH LAKE TO THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.

ANOTHER WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH...THIS TIME LOCATED FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE TUESDAY SYSTEM...MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW FROM HERE ON OUT THROUGH THE REST OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. PATTERN IS GENERALLY UNSTABLE AND WARM WITH
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS EACH DAY OF THE WEEKEND...BUT AT THIS POINT
TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHEN THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE DUE TO MODEL
DIFFERENCES IN THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW. DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD
HEAVY PRECIP...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS EACH
DAY. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...LESS THAN 10 KTS...BECOMING NEAR-CALM
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  25  60  40  62 /   0   0   0  20
INL  26  69  42  61 /   0  10  40  30
BRD  28  68  43  66 /   0   0  20  40
HYR  23  64  37  64 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  26  57  32  61 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 261724
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1224 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SKY CONDITIONS CLEAR AT NIGHT AND SUNNY DURING THE DAY. A
HIGH SUN ANGLE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...WITH ONLY A
LIGHT NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE
AREAS 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL BE WELL
INLAND FROM THE COLD LAKE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE 20S AND 30S UNDER
LIGHT SFC WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. ON MONDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE 50S. HOWEVER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND START TO ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. NOTABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH NOW HAVE A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROF WHICH IS COMING IN SLOWER PER THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUNS. THE NAM ALSO HAS THE UPPER TROF POSITIONING...BUT THE COLD
FRONT FALLS APART BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT STILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PCPN TO THE WESTERN EDGE MONDAY EVENING. MOVED THE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DIFFERENCES. ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE ONLY MODEL TO
GENERATE PCPN AS THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT. BUT THIS IS IN REGARDS
TO THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SW MN WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS HAVE AN OPEN WAVE. MAINTAINED THE PLACEMENT OF POPS...BUT
HAVE LOWERED THE VALUES. UPPER TROF IS REPLACED BY BUILDING UPPER
RIDGING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING FROM HUDSON
BAY COVERS THE REGION. THE SFC/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA AS AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF ARRIVES OVER MN. THE ECMWF IS
ONCE AGAIN THE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER TROF AND SUBSEQUENT COLD
FRONT VERSUS THE GFS. REGARDLESS...SOME QPF IS GENERATED. HAVE A
BLENDED APPROACH TO POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
CROSS OVERHEAD. THE MODELS DIVERGE SATURDAY AND HAVE CONSENSUS POPS
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...LESS THAN 10 KTS...BECOMING NEAR-CALM
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  28  63  40 /   0   0   0  20
INL  61  26  68  40 /   0   0  10  30
BRD  61  28  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
HYR  59  23  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  49  26  56  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...JJM









000
FXUS63 KDLH 261724
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1224 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SKY CONDITIONS CLEAR AT NIGHT AND SUNNY DURING THE DAY. A
HIGH SUN ANGLE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...WITH ONLY A
LIGHT NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE
AREAS 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL BE WELL
INLAND FROM THE COLD LAKE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE 20S AND 30S UNDER
LIGHT SFC WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. ON MONDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE 50S. HOWEVER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND START TO ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. NOTABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH NOW HAVE A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROF WHICH IS COMING IN SLOWER PER THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUNS. THE NAM ALSO HAS THE UPPER TROF POSITIONING...BUT THE COLD
FRONT FALLS APART BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT STILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PCPN TO THE WESTERN EDGE MONDAY EVENING. MOVED THE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DIFFERENCES. ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE ONLY MODEL TO
GENERATE PCPN AS THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT. BUT THIS IS IN REGARDS
TO THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SW MN WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS HAVE AN OPEN WAVE. MAINTAINED THE PLACEMENT OF POPS...BUT
HAVE LOWERED THE VALUES. UPPER TROF IS REPLACED BY BUILDING UPPER
RIDGING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING FROM HUDSON
BAY COVERS THE REGION. THE SFC/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA AS AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF ARRIVES OVER MN. THE ECMWF IS
ONCE AGAIN THE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER TROF AND SUBSEQUENT COLD
FRONT VERSUS THE GFS. REGARDLESS...SOME QPF IS GENERATED. HAVE A
BLENDED APPROACH TO POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
CROSS OVERHEAD. THE MODELS DIVERGE SATURDAY AND HAVE CONSENSUS POPS
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SKIES CLEAR WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON...LESS THAN 10 KTS...BECOMING NEAR-CALM
OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  28  63  40 /   0   0   0  20
INL  61  26  68  40 /   0   0  10  30
BRD  61  28  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
HYR  59  23  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  49  26  56  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 261112
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
612 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SKY CONDITIONS CLEAR AT NIGHT AND SUNNY DURING THE DAY. A
HIGH SUN ANGLE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...WITH ONLY A
LIGHT NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE
AREAS 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL BE WELL
INLAND FROM THE COLD LAKE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE 20S AND 30S UNDER
LIGHT SFC WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. ON MONDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE 50S. HOWEVER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND START TO ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. NOTABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH NOW HAVE A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROF WHICH IS COMING IN SLOWER PER THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUNS. THE NAM ALSO HAS THE UPPER TROF POSITIONING...BUT THE COLD
FRONT FALLS APART BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT STILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PCPN TO THE WESTERN EDGE MONDAY EVENING. MOVED THE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DIFFERENCES. ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE ONLY MODEL TO
GENERATE PCPN AS THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT. BUT THIS IS IN REGARDS
TO THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SW MN WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS HAVE AN OPEN WAVE. MAINTAINED THE PLACEMENT OF POPS...BUT
HAVE LOWERED THE VALUES. UPPER TROF IS REPLACED BY BUILDING UPPER
RIDGING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING FROM HUDSON
BAY COVERS THE REGION. THE SFC/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA AS AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF ARRIVES OVER MN. THE ECMWF IS
ONCE AGAIN THE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER TROF AND SUBSEQUENT COLD
FRONT VERSUS THE GFS. REGARDLESS...SOME QPF IS GENERATED. HAVE A
BLENDED APPROACH TO POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
CROSS OVERHEAD. THE MODELS DIVERGE SATURDAY AND HAVE CONSENSUS POPS
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  34  63  40 /   0   0   0  20
INL  61  32  68  40 /   0   0  10  30
BRD  61  33  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
HYR  59  29  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  49  31  56  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 261112
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
612 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SKY CONDITIONS CLEAR AT NIGHT AND SUNNY DURING THE DAY. A
HIGH SUN ANGLE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...WITH ONLY A
LIGHT NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE
AREAS 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL BE WELL
INLAND FROM THE COLD LAKE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE 20S AND 30S UNDER
LIGHT SFC WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. ON MONDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE 50S. HOWEVER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND START TO ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. NOTABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH NOW HAVE A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROF WHICH IS COMING IN SLOWER PER THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUNS. THE NAM ALSO HAS THE UPPER TROF POSITIONING...BUT THE COLD
FRONT FALLS APART BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT STILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PCPN TO THE WESTERN EDGE MONDAY EVENING. MOVED THE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DIFFERENCES. ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE ONLY MODEL TO
GENERATE PCPN AS THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT. BUT THIS IS IN REGARDS
TO THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SW MN WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS HAVE AN OPEN WAVE. MAINTAINED THE PLACEMENT OF POPS...BUT
HAVE LOWERED THE VALUES. UPPER TROF IS REPLACED BY BUILDING UPPER
RIDGING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING FROM HUDSON
BAY COVERS THE REGION. THE SFC/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA AS AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF ARRIVES OVER MN. THE ECMWF IS
ONCE AGAIN THE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER TROF AND SUBSEQUENT COLD
FRONT VERSUS THE GFS. REGARDLESS...SOME QPF IS GENERATED. HAVE A
BLENDED APPROACH TO POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
CROSS OVERHEAD. THE MODELS DIVERGE SATURDAY AND HAVE CONSENSUS POPS
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  34  63  40 /   0   0   0  20
INL  61  32  68  40 /   0   0  10  30
BRD  61  33  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
HYR  59  29  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  49  31  56  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 261112
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
612 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SKY CONDITIONS CLEAR AT NIGHT AND SUNNY DURING THE DAY. A
HIGH SUN ANGLE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...WITH ONLY A
LIGHT NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE
AREAS 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL BE WELL
INLAND FROM THE COLD LAKE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE 20S AND 30S UNDER
LIGHT SFC WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. ON MONDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE 50S. HOWEVER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND START TO ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. NOTABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH NOW HAVE A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROF WHICH IS COMING IN SLOWER PER THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUNS. THE NAM ALSO HAS THE UPPER TROF POSITIONING...BUT THE COLD
FRONT FALLS APART BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT STILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PCPN TO THE WESTERN EDGE MONDAY EVENING. MOVED THE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DIFFERENCES. ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE ONLY MODEL TO
GENERATE PCPN AS THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT. BUT THIS IS IN REGARDS
TO THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SW MN WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS HAVE AN OPEN WAVE. MAINTAINED THE PLACEMENT OF POPS...BUT
HAVE LOWERED THE VALUES. UPPER TROF IS REPLACED BY BUILDING UPPER
RIDGING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING FROM HUDSON
BAY COVERS THE REGION. THE SFC/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA AS AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF ARRIVES OVER MN. THE ECMWF IS
ONCE AGAIN THE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER TROF AND SUBSEQUENT COLD
FRONT VERSUS THE GFS. REGARDLESS...SOME QPF IS GENERATED. HAVE A
BLENDED APPROACH TO POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
CROSS OVERHEAD. THE MODELS DIVERGE SATURDAY AND HAVE CONSENSUS POPS
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  34  63  40 /   0   0   0  20
INL  61  32  68  40 /   0   0  10  30
BRD  61  33  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
HYR  59  29  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  49  31  56  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF









000
FXUS63 KDLH 261112
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
612 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SKY CONDITIONS CLEAR AT NIGHT AND SUNNY DURING THE DAY. A
HIGH SUN ANGLE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...WITH ONLY A
LIGHT NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE
AREAS 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL BE WELL
INLAND FROM THE COLD LAKE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE 20S AND 30S UNDER
LIGHT SFC WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. ON MONDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE 50S. HOWEVER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND START TO ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. NOTABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH NOW HAVE A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROF WHICH IS COMING IN SLOWER PER THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUNS. THE NAM ALSO HAS THE UPPER TROF POSITIONING...BUT THE COLD
FRONT FALLS APART BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT STILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PCPN TO THE WESTERN EDGE MONDAY EVENING. MOVED THE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DIFFERENCES. ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE ONLY MODEL TO
GENERATE PCPN AS THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT. BUT THIS IS IN REGARDS
TO THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SW MN WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS HAVE AN OPEN WAVE. MAINTAINED THE PLACEMENT OF POPS...BUT
HAVE LOWERED THE VALUES. UPPER TROF IS REPLACED BY BUILDING UPPER
RIDGING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING FROM HUDSON
BAY COVERS THE REGION. THE SFC/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA AS AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF ARRIVES OVER MN. THE ECMWF IS
ONCE AGAIN THE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER TROF AND SUBSEQUENT COLD
FRONT VERSUS THE GFS. REGARDLESS...SOME QPF IS GENERATED. HAVE A
BLENDED APPROACH TO POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
CROSS OVERHEAD. THE MODELS DIVERGE SATURDAY AND HAVE CONSENSUS POPS
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 612 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  34  63  40 /   0   0   0  20
INL  61  32  68  40 /   0   0  10  30
BRD  61  33  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
HYR  59  29  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  49  31  56  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF









000
FXUS63 KDLH 260738
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SKY CONDITIONS CLEAR AT NIGHT AND SUNNY DURING THE DAY. A
HIGH SUN ANGLE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...WITH ONLY A
LIGHT NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE
AREAS 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL BE WELL
INLAND FROM THE COLD LAKE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE 20S AND 30S UNDER
LIGHT SFC WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. ON MONDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE 50S. HOWEVER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND START TO ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. NOTABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH NOW HAVE A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROF WHICH IS COMING IN SLOWER PER THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUNS. THE NAM ALSO HAS THE UPPER TROF POSITIONING...BUT THE COLD
FRONT FALLS APART BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT STILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PCPN TO THE WESTERN EDGE MONDAY EVENING. MOVED THE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DIFFERENCES. ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE ONLY MODEL TO
GENERATE PCPN AS THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT. BUT THIS IS IN REGARDS
TO THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SW MN WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS HAVE AN OPEN WAVE. MAINTAINED THE PLACEMENT OF POPS...BUT
HAVE LOWERED THE VALUES. UPPER TROF IS REPLACED BY BUILDING UPPER
RIDGING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING FROM HUDSON
BAY COVERS THE REGION. THE SFC/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA AS AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF ARRIVES OVER MN. THE ECMWF IS
ONCE AGAIN THE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER TROF AND SUBSEQUENT COLD
FRONT VERSUS THE GFS. REGARDLESS...SOME QPF IS GENERATED. HAVE A
BLENDED APPROACH TO POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
CROSS OVERHEAD. THE MODELS DIVERGE SATURDAY AND HAVE CONSENSUS POPS
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  34  63  40 /   0   0   0  20
INL  61  32  68  40 /   0   0  10  30
BRD  61  33  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
HYR  59  29  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  49  31  56  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 260738
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES
TODAY AND MONDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE COMBINED WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
REGION AND A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL KEEP WEATHER CONDITIONS QUIET
TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER MOISTURE
WILL KEEP SKY CONDITIONS CLEAR AT NIGHT AND SUNNY DURING THE DAY. A
HIGH SUN ANGLE AND A LACK OF CLOUDS DURING THE DAY WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES TO WARM INTO THE 50S AND 60S TODAY...WITH ONLY A
LIGHT NE WIND OFF LAKE SUPERIOR KEEPING THE IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE
AREAS 5 TO 10 DEG COOLER. THE WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL BE WELL
INLAND FROM THE COLD LAKE.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL AGAIN TONIGHT INTO THE 20S AND 30S UNDER
LIGHT SFC WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES. ON MONDAY CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
SIMILAR TO SUNDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR
WHERE TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE 50S. HOWEVER BY THE LATE AFTERNOON
THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS AND START TO ALLOW CLOUD COVER TO
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST. NOTABLE CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS SHOULD
HOLD OFF UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 238 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE MODELS ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE
UPPER TROF AND COLD FRONT. GFS/ECMWF BOTH NOW HAVE A POSITIVELY
TILTED UPPER TROF WHICH IS COMING IN SLOWER PER THE PREVIOUS ECMWF
RUNS. THE NAM ALSO HAS THE UPPER TROF POSITIONING...BUT THE COLD
FRONT FALLS APART BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THE GFS/ECMWF
KEEP THE FRONT TO THE WEST OF THE AREA...BUT STILL BRING SOME LIGHT
PCPN TO THE WESTERN EDGE MONDAY EVENING. MOVED THE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR
MODEL DIFFERENCES. ON TUESDAY...THE ECMWF REMAINS THE ONLY MODEL TO
GENERATE PCPN AS THE COLD FRONT WASHES OUT. BUT THIS IS IN REGARDS
TO THE ECMWF HAVING A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER SW MN WHILE THE OTHER
MODELS HAVE AN OPEN WAVE. MAINTAINED THE PLACEMENT OF POPS...BUT
HAVE LOWERED THE VALUES. UPPER TROF IS REPLACED BY BUILDING UPPER
RIDGING INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE SFC RIDGING FROM HUDSON
BAY COVERS THE REGION. THE SFC/UPPER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ON FRIDAY...THE UPPER RIDGING MOVES EAST OF
THE AREA AS AN APPROACHING UPPER TROF ARRIVES OVER MN. THE ECMWF IS
ONCE AGAIN THE STRONGEST WITH THE UPPER TROF AND SUBSEQUENT COLD
FRONT VERSUS THE GFS. REGARDLESS...SOME QPF IS GENERATED. HAVE A
BLENDED APPROACH TO POPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THESE FEATURES
CROSS OVERHEAD. THE MODELS DIVERGE SATURDAY AND HAVE CONSENSUS POPS
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  34  63  40 /   0   0   0  20
INL  61  32  68  40 /   0   0  10  30
BRD  61  33  67  44 /   0   0   0  20
HYR  59  29  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  49  31  56  35 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 260522
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1222 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LEANED ON THE COLDER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SINCE THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING. A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE GAVE
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT. THE NE WINDS FROM CANADA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR COOL IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY...BUT AREAS WELL
INLAND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY AND MILD TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE STRENGTHENED THIS
TROUGH WITH GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVING
EAST INTO SW ONTARIO LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY...AND THIS DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS MAY LIMIT JUST HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS AND HOW FAR EAST THE LIGHT RAIN IS ABLE TO SPREAD. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. NEXT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH BOTH THE LATEST GEM/ECMWF
DEPICTING A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT OVER THE EARLY WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...BUT AT THIS POINT THERE
IS TOO MUCH SPREAD ACROSS THE GUIDANCE TO GIVE MORE SPECIFIC
TIMING.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEK WILL BE MILD IN THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY/TUESDAY
TO THE LOW 70S BY THE WEEKEND. THESE WARM TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND TO
THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THOUGH A SOUTH WIND IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 25 TO
30 PERCENT IN NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...BUT WINDS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT /ABOUT 5 MPH OR LESS/ WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER RISK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  60  41  59 /   0   0  30  30
INL  32  66  38  60 /   0   0  40  10
BRD  34  65  43  63 /   0   0  30  10
HYR  30  64  36  63 /   0   0   0  30
ASX  31  55  35  60 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 260522
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1222 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LEANED ON THE COLDER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SINCE THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING. A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE GAVE
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT. THE NE WINDS FROM CANADA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR COOL IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY...BUT AREAS WELL
INLAND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY AND MILD TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE STRENGTHENED THIS
TROUGH WITH GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVING
EAST INTO SW ONTARIO LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY...AND THIS DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS MAY LIMIT JUST HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS AND HOW FAR EAST THE LIGHT RAIN IS ABLE TO SPREAD. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. NEXT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH BOTH THE LATEST GEM/ECMWF
DEPICTING A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT OVER THE EARLY WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...BUT AT THIS POINT THERE
IS TOO MUCH SPREAD ACROSS THE GUIDANCE TO GIVE MORE SPECIFIC
TIMING.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEK WILL BE MILD IN THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY/TUESDAY
TO THE LOW 70S BY THE WEEKEND. THESE WARM TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND TO
THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THOUGH A SOUTH WIND IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 25 TO
30 PERCENT IN NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...BUT WINDS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT /ABOUT 5 MPH OR LESS/ WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER RISK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  60  41  59 /   0   0  30  30
INL  32  66  38  60 /   0   0  40  10
BRD  34  65  43  63 /   0   0  30  10
HYR  30  64  36  63 /   0   0   0  30
ASX  31  55  35  60 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 260522
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1222 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LEANED ON THE COLDER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SINCE THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING. A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE GAVE
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT. THE NE WINDS FROM CANADA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR COOL IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY...BUT AREAS WELL
INLAND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY AND MILD TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE STRENGTHENED THIS
TROUGH WITH GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVING
EAST INTO SW ONTARIO LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY...AND THIS DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS MAY LIMIT JUST HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS AND HOW FAR EAST THE LIGHT RAIN IS ABLE TO SPREAD. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. NEXT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH BOTH THE LATEST GEM/ECMWF
DEPICTING A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT OVER THE EARLY WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...BUT AT THIS POINT THERE
IS TOO MUCH SPREAD ACROSS THE GUIDANCE TO GIVE MORE SPECIFIC
TIMING.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEK WILL BE MILD IN THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY/TUESDAY
TO THE LOW 70S BY THE WEEKEND. THESE WARM TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND TO
THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THOUGH A SOUTH WIND IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 25 TO
30 PERCENT IN NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...BUT WINDS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT /ABOUT 5 MPH OR LESS/ WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER RISK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  60  41  59 /   0   0  30  30
INL  32  66  38  60 /   0   0  40  10
BRD  34  65  43  63 /   0   0  30  10
HYR  30  64  36  63 /   0   0   0  30
ASX  31  55  35  60 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 260522
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1222 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LEANED ON THE COLDER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SINCE THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING. A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE GAVE
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT. THE NE WINDS FROM CANADA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR COOL IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY...BUT AREAS WELL
INLAND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY AND MILD TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE STRENGTHENED THIS
TROUGH WITH GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVING
EAST INTO SW ONTARIO LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY...AND THIS DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS MAY LIMIT JUST HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS AND HOW FAR EAST THE LIGHT RAIN IS ABLE TO SPREAD. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. NEXT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH BOTH THE LATEST GEM/ECMWF
DEPICTING A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT OVER THE EARLY WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...BUT AT THIS POINT THERE
IS TOO MUCH SPREAD ACROSS THE GUIDANCE TO GIVE MORE SPECIFIC
TIMING.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEK WILL BE MILD IN THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY/TUESDAY
TO THE LOW 70S BY THE WEEKEND. THESE WARM TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND TO
THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THOUGH A SOUTH WIND IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 25 TO
30 PERCENT IN NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...BUT WINDS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT /ABOUT 5 MPH OR LESS/ WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER RISK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1222 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING NORTH/NORTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  60  41  59 /   0   0  30  30
INL  32  66  38  60 /   0   0  40  10
BRD  34  65  43  63 /   0   0  30  10
HYR  30  64  36  63 /   0   0   0  30
ASX  31  55  35  60 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 252344
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LEANED ON THE COLDER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SINCE THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING. A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE GAVE
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT. THE NE WINDS FROM CANADA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR COOL IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY...BUT AREAS WELL
INLAND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY AND MILD TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE STRENGTHENED THIS
TROUGH WITH GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVING
EAST INTO SW ONTARIO LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY...AND THIS DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS MAY LIMIT JUST HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS AND HOW FAR EAST THE LIGHT RAIN IS ABLE TO SPREAD. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. NEXT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH BOTH THE LATEST GEM/ECMWF
DEPICTING A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT OVER THE EARLY WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...BUT AT THIS POINT THERE
IS TOO MUCH SPREAD ACROSS THE GUIDANCE TO GIVE MORE SPECIFIC
TIMING.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEK WILL BE MILD IN THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY/TUESDAY
TO THE LOW 70S BY THE WEEKEND. THESE WARM TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND TO
THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THOUGH A SOUTH WIND IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 25 TO
30 PERCENT IN NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...BUT WINDS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT /ABOUT 5 MPH OR LESS/ WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER RISK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY LESS THAN 10KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  51  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
INL  27  59  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  31  60  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  26  56  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  26  48  31  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 252344
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LEANED ON THE COLDER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SINCE THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING. A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE GAVE
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT. THE NE WINDS FROM CANADA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR COOL IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY...BUT AREAS WELL
INLAND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY AND MILD TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE STRENGTHENED THIS
TROUGH WITH GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVING
EAST INTO SW ONTARIO LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY...AND THIS DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS MAY LIMIT JUST HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS AND HOW FAR EAST THE LIGHT RAIN IS ABLE TO SPREAD. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. NEXT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH BOTH THE LATEST GEM/ECMWF
DEPICTING A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT OVER THE EARLY WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...BUT AT THIS POINT THERE
IS TOO MUCH SPREAD ACROSS THE GUIDANCE TO GIVE MORE SPECIFIC
TIMING.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEK WILL BE MILD IN THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY/TUESDAY
TO THE LOW 70S BY THE WEEKEND. THESE WARM TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND TO
THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THOUGH A SOUTH WIND IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 25 TO
30 PERCENT IN NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...BUT WINDS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT /ABOUT 5 MPH OR LESS/ WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER RISK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING. NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY...MAINLY LESS THAN 10KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  51  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
INL  27  59  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  31  60  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  26  56  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  26  48  31  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 252011
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LEANED ON THE COLDER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SINCE THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING. A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE GAVE
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT. THE NE WINDS FROM CANADA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR COOL IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY...BUT AREAS WELL
INLAND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY AND MILD TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE STRENGTHENED THIS
TROUGH WITH GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVING
EAST INTO SW ONTARIO LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY...AND THIS DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS MAY LIMIT JUST HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS AND HOW FAR EAST THE LIGHT RAIN IS ABLE TO SPREAD. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. NEXT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH BOTH THE LATEST GEM/ECMWF
DEPICTING A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT OVER THE EARLY WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...BUT AT THIS POINT THERE
IS TOO MUCH SPREAD ACROSS THE GUIDANCE TO GIVE MORE SPECIFIC
TIMING.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEK WILL BE MILD IN THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY/TUESDAY
TO THE LOW 70S BY THE WEEKEND. THESE WARM TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND TO
THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THOUGH A SOUTH WIND IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 25 TO
30 PERCENT IN NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...BUT WINDS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT /ABOUT 5 MPH OR LESS/ WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER RISK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY EAST WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AFFECTING KDLH...GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BECOMING NEAR-CALM
AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  51  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
INL  27  59  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  31  60  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  26  56  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  26  48  31  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM









000
FXUS63 KDLH 252011
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER CANADA WILL BUILD INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT EAST TO NE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LEANED ON THE COLDER MODEL GUIDANCE FOR
LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SINCE THE LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES
WILL PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING. A BLEND OF THE MOS GUIDANCE GAVE
LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S TONIGHT. THE NE WINDS FROM CANADA
AND LAKE SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE ARROWHEAD AND AREAS NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR COOL IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S SUNDAY...BUT AREAS WELL
INLAND UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

DRY AND MILD TREND THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SYSTEM EARLY TUESDAY BUT
OTHERWISE DRY UNTIL LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE...H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST ON
MONDAY WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. RECENT MODEL RUNS HAVE STRENGTHENED THIS
TROUGH WITH GUIDANCE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE
TIMING...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW OVER SRN MANITOBA MOVING
EAST INTO SW ONTARIO LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY...AND THERE WILL BE
SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. MONDAY WILL BE FAIRLY
DRY...AND THIS DRY AIR AT LOW LEVELS MAY LIMIT JUST HOW MUCH RAIN
FALLS AND HOW FAR EAST THE LIGHT RAIN IS ABLE TO SPREAD. FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. NEXT FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP WITH BOTH THE LATEST GEM/ECMWF
DEPICTING A WARM FRONT LIFTING ACROSS THE AREA FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT OVER THE EARLY WEEKEND TIMEFRAME...BUT AT THIS POINT THERE
IS TOO MUCH SPREAD ACROSS THE GUIDANCE TO GIVE MORE SPECIFIC
TIMING.

TEMPS OVER THE WEEK WILL BE MILD IN THE LOW 60S ON MONDAY/TUESDAY
TO THE LOW 70S BY THE WEEKEND. THESE WARM TEMPS SHOULD EXTEND TO
THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR...THOUGH A SOUTH WIND IN THE SECOND
HALF OF THE WEEK MAY LEAD TO COOLER TEMPS ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.
MONDAY WILL BE DRY WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES FALLING TO 25 TO
30 PERCENT IN NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...BUT WINDS WILL
BE VERY LIGHT /ABOUT 5 MPH OR LESS/ WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE A
WIDESPREAD FIRE WEATHER RISK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY EAST WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AFFECTING KDLH...GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BECOMING NEAR-CALM
AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  29  51  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
INL  27  59  32  66 /   0   0   0   0
BRD  31  60  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  26  56  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  26  48  31  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 251728
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1228 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERY QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING CLEARING OUT FROM NE TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR
MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ENSHROUDED IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A COOL NE WIND
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND KEEP MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND IN THESE COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
AROUND AND ADJACENT TO THE LAKE...AND INTO THE LOWER 50S INLAND. A
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD S/SWWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO INTO NE MN AS AN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER NW MN TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO FEATURES AND A DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE NE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. WINDS AROUND THE LAKE THIS
MORNING ARE BLOWING 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY AS THE PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WRN LS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY EXIST OVER THE WATER AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE.
THE CLEARING SKIES LATER TODAY AND LIGHTER WINDS INLAND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALLOWING MUCH OF THE REGION TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AROUND THE
VERY IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL ONLY SEE THE 30S
AND 40S AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO NW MN BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE NAM HAS
THE FRONT ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
TUESDAY. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS WASHES OUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROF CRUISES BY WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A
DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF WHICH SLOWS DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE
TROF BUT HAS NO PCPN. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRIOR RUNS
AND GENERATES PCPN OVER THE REGION. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL HAVE LOW
POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF
DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT DROPS FROM
ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THIS TROF AS IT DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY AND
COVERS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND HAVE A BLEND FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY EAST WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AFFECTING KDLH...GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BECOMING NEAR-CALM
AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  29  49  31 /  10   0   0   0
INL  53  28  58  31 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  52  28  59  33 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  54  27  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  47  29  46  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 251728
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1228 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERY QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING CLEARING OUT FROM NE TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR
MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ENSHROUDED IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A COOL NE WIND
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND KEEP MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND IN THESE COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
AROUND AND ADJACENT TO THE LAKE...AND INTO THE LOWER 50S INLAND. A
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD S/SWWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO INTO NE MN AS AN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER NW MN TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO FEATURES AND A DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE NE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. WINDS AROUND THE LAKE THIS
MORNING ARE BLOWING 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY AS THE PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WRN LS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY EXIST OVER THE WATER AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE.
THE CLEARING SKIES LATER TODAY AND LIGHTER WINDS INLAND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALLOWING MUCH OF THE REGION TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AROUND THE
VERY IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL ONLY SEE THE 30S
AND 40S AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO NW MN BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE NAM HAS
THE FRONT ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
TUESDAY. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS WASHES OUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROF CRUISES BY WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A
DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF WHICH SLOWS DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE
TROF BUT HAS NO PCPN. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRIOR RUNS
AND GENERATES PCPN OVER THE REGION. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL HAVE LOW
POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF
DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT DROPS FROM
ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THIS TROF AS IT DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY AND
COVERS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND HAVE A BLEND FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY EAST WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AFFECTING KDLH...GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BECOMING NEAR-CALM
AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  29  49  31 /  10   0   0   0
INL  53  28  58  31 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  52  28  59  33 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  54  27  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  47  29  46  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 251728
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1228 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERY QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING CLEARING OUT FROM NE TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR
MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ENSHROUDED IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A COOL NE WIND
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND KEEP MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND IN THESE COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
AROUND AND ADJACENT TO THE LAKE...AND INTO THE LOWER 50S INLAND. A
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD S/SWWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO INTO NE MN AS AN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER NW MN TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO FEATURES AND A DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE NE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. WINDS AROUND THE LAKE THIS
MORNING ARE BLOWING 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY AS THE PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WRN LS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY EXIST OVER THE WATER AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE.
THE CLEARING SKIES LATER TODAY AND LIGHTER WINDS INLAND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALLOWING MUCH OF THE REGION TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AROUND THE
VERY IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL ONLY SEE THE 30S
AND 40S AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO NW MN BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE NAM HAS
THE FRONT ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
TUESDAY. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS WASHES OUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROF CRUISES BY WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A
DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF WHICH SLOWS DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE
TROF BUT HAS NO PCPN. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRIOR RUNS
AND GENERATES PCPN OVER THE REGION. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL HAVE LOW
POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF
DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT DROPS FROM
ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THIS TROF AS IT DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY AND
COVERS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND HAVE A BLEND FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY EAST WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AFFECTING KDLH...GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BECOMING NEAR-CALM
AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  29  49  31 /  10   0   0   0
INL  53  28  58  31 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  52  28  59  33 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  54  27  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  47  29  46  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 251728
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1228 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERY QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING CLEARING OUT FROM NE TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR
MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ENSHROUDED IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A COOL NE WIND
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND KEEP MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND IN THESE COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
AROUND AND ADJACENT TO THE LAKE...AND INTO THE LOWER 50S INLAND. A
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD S/SWWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO INTO NE MN AS AN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER NW MN TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO FEATURES AND A DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE NE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. WINDS AROUND THE LAKE THIS
MORNING ARE BLOWING 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY AS THE PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WRN LS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY EXIST OVER THE WATER AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE.
THE CLEARING SKIES LATER TODAY AND LIGHTER WINDS INLAND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALLOWING MUCH OF THE REGION TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AROUND THE
VERY IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL ONLY SEE THE 30S
AND 40S AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO NW MN BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE NAM HAS
THE FRONT ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
TUESDAY. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS WASHES OUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROF CRUISES BY WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A
DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF WHICH SLOWS DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE
TROF BUT HAS NO PCPN. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRIOR RUNS
AND GENERATES PCPN OVER THE REGION. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL HAVE LOW
POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF
DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT DROPS FROM
ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THIS TROF AS IT DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY AND
COVERS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND HAVE A BLEND FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY EAST WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR AFFECTING KDLH...GUSTING UP TO 30 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS
DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...BECOMING NEAR-CALM
AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  29  49  31 /  10   0   0   0
INL  53  28  58  31 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  52  28  59  33 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  54  27  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  47  29  46  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 251111
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
611 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERY QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING CLEARING OUT FROM NE TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR
MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ENSHROUDED IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A COOL NE WIND
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND KEEP MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND IN THESE COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
AROUND AND ADJACENT TO THE LAKE...AND INTO THE LOWER 50S INLAND. A
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD S/SWWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO INTO NE MN AS AN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER NW MN TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO FEATURES AND A DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE NE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. WINDS AROUND THE LAKE THIS
MORNING ARE BLOWING 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY AS THE PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WRN LS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY EXIST OVER THE WATER AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE.
THE CLEARING SKIES LATER TODAY AND LIGHTER WINDS INLAND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALLOWING MUCH OF THE REGION TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AROUND THE
VERY IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL ONLY SEE THE 30S
AND 40S AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO NW MN BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE NAM HAS
THE FRONT ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
TUESDAY. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS WASHES OUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROF CRUISES BY WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A
DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF WHICH SLOWS DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE
TROF BUT HAS NO PCPN. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRIOR RUNS
AND GENERATES PCPN OVER THE REGION. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL HAVE LOW
POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF
DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT DROPS FROM
ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THIS TROF AS IT DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY AND
COVERS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND HAVE A BLEND FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  29  49  31 /  10   0   0   0
INL  53  28  58  31 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  52  28  59  33 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  51  27  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  41  29  46  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 251111
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
611 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERY QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING CLEARING OUT FROM NE TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR
MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ENSHROUDED IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A COOL NE WIND
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND KEEP MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND IN THESE COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
AROUND AND ADJACENT TO THE LAKE...AND INTO THE LOWER 50S INLAND. A
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD S/SWWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO INTO NE MN AS AN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER NW MN TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO FEATURES AND A DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE NE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. WINDS AROUND THE LAKE THIS
MORNING ARE BLOWING 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY AS THE PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WRN LS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY EXIST OVER THE WATER AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE.
THE CLEARING SKIES LATER TODAY AND LIGHTER WINDS INLAND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALLOWING MUCH OF THE REGION TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AROUND THE
VERY IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL ONLY SEE THE 30S
AND 40S AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO NW MN BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE NAM HAS
THE FRONT ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
TUESDAY. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS WASHES OUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROF CRUISES BY WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A
DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF WHICH SLOWS DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE
TROF BUT HAS NO PCPN. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRIOR RUNS
AND GENERATES PCPN OVER THE REGION. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL HAVE LOW
POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF
DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT DROPS FROM
ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THIS TROF AS IT DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY AND
COVERS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND HAVE A BLEND FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  29  49  31 /  10   0   0   0
INL  53  28  58  31 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  52  28  59  33 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  51  27  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  41  29  46  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 251111
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
611 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERY QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING CLEARING OUT FROM NE TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR
MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ENSHROUDED IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A COOL NE WIND
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND KEEP MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND IN THESE COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
AROUND AND ADJACENT TO THE LAKE...AND INTO THE LOWER 50S INLAND. A
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD S/SWWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO INTO NE MN AS AN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER NW MN TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO FEATURES AND A DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE NE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. WINDS AROUND THE LAKE THIS
MORNING ARE BLOWING 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY AS THE PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WRN LS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY EXIST OVER THE WATER AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE.
THE CLEARING SKIES LATER TODAY AND LIGHTER WINDS INLAND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALLOWING MUCH OF THE REGION TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AROUND THE
VERY IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL ONLY SEE THE 30S
AND 40S AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO NW MN BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE NAM HAS
THE FRONT ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
TUESDAY. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS WASHES OUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROF CRUISES BY WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A
DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF WHICH SLOWS DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE
TROF BUT HAS NO PCPN. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRIOR RUNS
AND GENERATES PCPN OVER THE REGION. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL HAVE LOW
POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF
DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT DROPS FROM
ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THIS TROF AS IT DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY AND
COVERS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND HAVE A BLEND FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  29  49  31 /  10   0   0   0
INL  53  28  58  31 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  52  28  59  33 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  51  27  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  41  29  46  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 251111
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
611 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERY QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING CLEARING OUT FROM NE TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR
MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ENSHROUDED IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A COOL NE WIND
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND KEEP MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND IN THESE COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
AROUND AND ADJACENT TO THE LAKE...AND INTO THE LOWER 50S INLAND. A
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD S/SWWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO INTO NE MN AS AN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER NW MN TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO FEATURES AND A DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE NE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. WINDS AROUND THE LAKE THIS
MORNING ARE BLOWING 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY AS THE PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WRN LS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY EXIST OVER THE WATER AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE.
THE CLEARING SKIES LATER TODAY AND LIGHTER WINDS INLAND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALLOWING MUCH OF THE REGION TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AROUND THE
VERY IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL ONLY SEE THE 30S
AND 40S AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO NW MN BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE NAM HAS
THE FRONT ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
TUESDAY. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS WASHES OUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROF CRUISES BY WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A
DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF WHICH SLOWS DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE
TROF BUT HAS NO PCPN. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRIOR RUNS
AND GENERATES PCPN OVER THE REGION. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL HAVE LOW
POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF
DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT DROPS FROM
ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THIS TROF AS IT DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY AND
COVERS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND HAVE A BLEND FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 611 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST. SOME GUSTY SFC WINDS ARE POSSIBLE UNTIL
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  29  49  31 /  10   0   0   0
INL  53  28  58  31 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  52  28  59  33 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  51  27  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  41  29  46  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 250814
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
314 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERY QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING CLEARING OUT FROM NE TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR
MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ENSHROUDED IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A COOL NE WIND
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND KEEP MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND IN THESE COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
AROUND AND ADJACENT TO THE LAKE...AND INTO THE LOWER 50S INLAND. A
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD S/SWWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO INTO NE MN AS AN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER NW MN TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO FEATURES AND A DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE NE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. WINDS AROUND THE LAKE THIS
MORNING ARE BLOWING 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY AS THE PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WRN LS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY EXIST OVER THE WATER AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE.
THE CLEARING SKIES LATER TODAY AND LIGHTER WINDS INLAND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALLOWING MUCH OF THE REGION TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AROUND THE
VERY IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL ONLY SEE THE 30S
AND 40S AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO NW MN BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE NAM HAS
THE FRONT ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
TUESDAY. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS WASHES OUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROF CRUISES BY WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A
DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF WHICH SLOWS DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE
TROF BUT HAS NO PCPN. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRIOR RUNS
AND GENERATES PCPN OVER THE REGION. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL HAVE LOW
POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF
DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT DROPS FROM
ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THIS TROF AS IT DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY AND
COVERS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND HAVE A BLEND FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A DRY EASTERLY FLOW HAS LED TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AS OF LATE
EVENING WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD KBRD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL THEN RISE AND BECOME SCATTERED
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  29  49  31 /  10   0   0   0
INL  53  28  58  31 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  52  28  59  33 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  51  27  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  41  29  46  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 250814
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
314 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

VERY QUIET CONDITIONS IN THE SHORT TERM WITH CLOUDY SKIES THIS
MORNING CLEARING OUT FROM NE TO SW IN THE AFTERNOON. A DRY AIR
MASS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH AND PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE MOVING EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY REGION
EARLY THIS MORNING WELL SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...WITH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA ENSHROUDED IN LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS. A COOL NE WIND
OFF LAKE SUPERIOR WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND KEEP MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND IN THESE COOL CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S
AROUND AND ADJACENT TO THE LAKE...AND INTO THE LOWER 50S INLAND. A
SFC HIGH WILL BUILD S/SWWD ACROSS WRN ONTARIO INTO NE MN AS AN
UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER NW MN TODAY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE
TWO FEATURES AND A DRYING AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE CLEARING SKIES
LATER TODAY AND CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IN THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE NE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE AND RESULTING TEMPERATURES. WINDS AROUND THE LAKE THIS
MORNING ARE BLOWING 15 TO 20 MPH WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER
GUSTS...AND THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY AS THE PRES
GRADIENT REMAINS IN PLACE OVER WRN LS. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
LIKELY EXIST OVER THE WATER AND AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LAKE.
THE CLEARING SKIES LATER TODAY AND LIGHTER WINDS INLAND WILL ALLOW
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE LAKE TO RISE INTO THE UPPER 40S AND
LOWER 50S. HOWEVER...CLOSER TO THE LAKE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 20S AS WINDS
DIMINISH AND SKIES REMAIN CLEAR. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY WITH LIGHT NE WINDS ALLOWING MUCH OF THE REGION TO WARM
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING AROUND THE
VERY IMMEDIATE LAKE SHORE LOCATIONS...WHICH WILL ONLY SEE THE 30S
AND 40S AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING REMAIN OVER THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST MONDAY NIGHT. THE GFS
BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO NW MN BY 12Z TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF IS A
BIT FASTER AND MORE ROBUST WITH THE FRONT INTO THE AREA. THE NAM HAS
THE FRONT ON THE WESTERN DOORSTEP OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z
TUESDAY. HAVE USED A BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE
WESTERN THIRD OF THE AREA. MODEL DIFFERENCES PERSIST ON TUESDAY.
THE GFS WASHES OUT THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER
TROF CRUISES BY WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A
DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF WHICH SLOWS DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE GEM IS SIMILAR TO THE ECMWF WITH THE
TROF BUT HAS NO PCPN. THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH ITS PRIOR RUNS
AND GENERATES PCPN OVER THE REGION. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL HAVE LOW
POPS OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE THE PRIMARY UPPER TROF
DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT DROPS FROM
ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTIES AS A RESULT.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THIS TROF AS IT DEPARTS ON WEDNESDAY AND
COVERS THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS DIVERGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY AND HAVE A BLEND FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A DRY EASTERLY FLOW HAS LED TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AS OF LATE
EVENING WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD KBRD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL THEN RISE AND BECOME SCATTERED
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  29  49  31 /  10   0   0   0
INL  53  28  58  31 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  52  28  59  33 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  51  27  55  29 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  41  29  46  30 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 250519
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1219 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

BASED ON LATEST MODELS/RADAR TRENDS...WE LOWERED POPS TONIGHT AND
REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROF EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW. AS SUCH..THE PRIMARY AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER..WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING..ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN FAR EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST
WI. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS..BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND QPF SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.

AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS..EAST/NORTHEAST SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS..ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MANY OF
THESE SAME AREAS WILL ALSO SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FLOW OFF THE BIG LAKE PERSISTS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY THICK THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MOST AREAS..ALSO LIMITING TEMP RECOVERY ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER..SOME CLEARING/THINNING OF THE DEEP OVERCAST SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN AND ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN OVERALL DRY AND MILD PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE NORTH AT LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IS MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THAT TROUGH FIZZLES OUT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST RESULTING IN A
MAINLY DRY AND MILD PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. LOOKS LIKE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING TO ALLOW THE PRECIP TO MAKE IT
VERY FAR EAST. OTHERWISE DRY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING
THE WORK WEEK. LAKE BREEZE ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER BY THE
LAKE...BUT OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A DRY EASTERLY FLOW HAS LED TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AS OF LATE
EVENING WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD KBRD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL THEN RISE AND BECOME SCATTERED
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  49  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
INL  30  58  33  63 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  30  58  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  29  56  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  29  48  30  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT
     THIS EVENING FOR LSZ146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 250519
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1219 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

BASED ON LATEST MODELS/RADAR TRENDS...WE LOWERED POPS TONIGHT AND
REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROF EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW. AS SUCH..THE PRIMARY AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER..WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING..ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN FAR EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST
WI. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS..BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND QPF SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.

AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS..EAST/NORTHEAST SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS..ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MANY OF
THESE SAME AREAS WILL ALSO SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FLOW OFF THE BIG LAKE PERSISTS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY THICK THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MOST AREAS..ALSO LIMITING TEMP RECOVERY ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER..SOME CLEARING/THINNING OF THE DEEP OVERCAST SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN AND ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN OVERALL DRY AND MILD PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE NORTH AT LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IS MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THAT TROUGH FIZZLES OUT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST RESULTING IN A
MAINLY DRY AND MILD PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. LOOKS LIKE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING TO ALLOW THE PRECIP TO MAKE IT
VERY FAR EAST. OTHERWISE DRY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING
THE WORK WEEK. LAKE BREEZE ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER BY THE
LAKE...BUT OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT SAT APR 25 2015

A DRY EASTERLY FLOW HAS LED TO MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AS OF LATE
EVENING WITH SOME MVFR CEILINGS TOWARD KBRD. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND CEILINGS WILL THEN RISE AND BECOME SCATTERED
AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH SATURDAY.

GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE TWIN PORTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  49  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
INL  30  58  33  63 /   0   0   0  10
BRD  30  58  35  64 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  29  56  30  62 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  29  48  30  56 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT
     THIS EVENING FOR LSZ146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ141>145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM CDT THIS
     EVENING FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 250259
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
959 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

BASED ON LATEST MODELS/RADAR TRENDS...WE LOWERED POPS TONIGHT AND
REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROF EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW. AS SUCH..THE PRIMARY AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER..WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING..ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN FAR EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST
WI. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS..BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND QPF SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.

AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS..EAST/NORTHEAST SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS..ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MANY OF
THESE SAME AREAS WILL ALSO SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FLOW OFF THE BIG LAKE PERSISTS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY THICK THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MOST AREAS..ALSO LIMITING TEMP RECOVERY ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER..SOME CLEARING/THINNING OF THE DEEP OVERCAST SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN AND ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN OVERALL DRY AND MILD PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE NORTH AT LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IS MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THAT TROUGH FIZZLES OUT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST RESULTING IN A
MAINLY DRY AND MILD PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. LOOKS LIKE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING TO ALLOW THE PRECIP TO MAKE IT
VERY FAR EAST. OTHERWISE DRY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING
THE WORK WEEK. LAKE BREEZE ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER BY THE
LAKE...BUT OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUED OVER SOUTHWEST AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND NEAR
KBRD. A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW WAS PREVENTING THE LOWER CEILINGS
FURTHER EAST/NORTHEAST AND KEEPING ANY PRECIP TO VIRGA TO
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AT MOST. SOME THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS
WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WE TRENDED THAT WAY FOR
SEVERAL OF THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND KDLH
IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AS BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS KEEP A FEED OF
DRIER GOING. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
BUILD SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  43  31  49 /  50  10   0   0
INL  32  53  30  58 /  20  10   0   0
BRD  36  52  30  58 /  50  10   0   0
HYR  34  53  29  56 /  70  10   0   0
ASX  33  44  29  48 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ146-
     147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ141>145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 250259
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
959 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 959 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

BASED ON LATEST MODELS/RADAR TRENDS...WE LOWERED POPS TONIGHT AND
REMOVED THEM FOR SATURDAY MORNING. REST OF THE FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROF EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW. AS SUCH..THE PRIMARY AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER..WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING..ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN FAR EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST
WI. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS..BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND QPF SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.

AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS..EAST/NORTHEAST SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS..ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MANY OF
THESE SAME AREAS WILL ALSO SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FLOW OFF THE BIG LAKE PERSISTS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY THICK THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MOST AREAS..ALSO LIMITING TEMP RECOVERY ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER..SOME CLEARING/THINNING OF THE DEEP OVERCAST SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN AND ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN OVERALL DRY AND MILD PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE NORTH AT LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IS MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THAT TROUGH FIZZLES OUT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST RESULTING IN A
MAINLY DRY AND MILD PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. LOOKS LIKE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING TO ALLOW THE PRECIP TO MAKE IT
VERY FAR EAST. OTHERWISE DRY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING
THE WORK WEEK. LAKE BREEZE ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER BY THE
LAKE...BUT OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUED OVER SOUTHWEST AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND NEAR
KBRD. A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW WAS PREVENTING THE LOWER CEILINGS
FURTHER EAST/NORTHEAST AND KEEPING ANY PRECIP TO VIRGA TO
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AT MOST. SOME THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS
WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WE TRENDED THAT WAY FOR
SEVERAL OF THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND KDLH
IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AS BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS KEEP A FEED OF
DRIER GOING. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
BUILD SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE REGION.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  43  31  49 /  50  10   0   0
INL  32  53  30  58 /  20  10   0   0
BRD  36  52  30  58 /  50  10   0   0
HYR  34  53  29  56 /  70  10   0   0
ASX  33  44  29  48 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ146-
     147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ141>145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 242356
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROF EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW. AS SUCH..THE PRIMARY AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER..WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING..ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN FAR EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST
WI. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS..BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND QPF SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.

AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS..EAST/NORTHEAST SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS..ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MANY OF
THESE SAME AREAS WILL ALSO SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FLOW OFF THE BIG LAKE PERSISTS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY THICK THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MOST AREAS..ALSO LIMITING TEMP RECOVERY ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER..SOME CLEARING/THINNING OF THE DEEP OVERCAST SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN AND ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN OVERALL DRY AND MILD PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE NORTH AT LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IS MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THAT TROUGH FIZZLES OUT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST RESULTING IN A
MAINLY DRY AND MILD PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. LOOKS LIKE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING TO ALLOW THE PRECIP TO MAKE IT
VERY FAR EAST. OTHERWISE DRY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING
THE WORK WEEK. LAKE BREEZE ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER BY THE
LAKE...BUT OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUED OVER SOUTHWEST AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND NEAR
KBRD. A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW WAS PREVENTING THE LOWER CEILINGS
FURTHER EAST/NORTHEAST AND KEEPING ANY PRECIP TO VIRGA TO
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AT MOST. SOME THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS
WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WE TRENDED THAT WAY FOR
SEVERAL OF THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND KDLH
IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AS BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS KEEP A FEED OF
DRIER GOING. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
BUILD SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  43  31  49 /  60  20   0   0
INL  32  53  30  58 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  36  52  30  58 /  50  20   0   0
HYR  34  53  29  56 /  70  20   0   0
ASX  33  44  29  48 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ146-
     147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ141>145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 242356
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROF EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW. AS SUCH..THE PRIMARY AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER..WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING..ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN FAR EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST
WI. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS..BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND QPF SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.

AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS..EAST/NORTHEAST SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS..ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MANY OF
THESE SAME AREAS WILL ALSO SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FLOW OFF THE BIG LAKE PERSISTS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY THICK THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MOST AREAS..ALSO LIMITING TEMP RECOVERY ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER..SOME CLEARING/THINNING OF THE DEEP OVERCAST SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN AND ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN OVERALL DRY AND MILD PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE NORTH AT LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IS MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THAT TROUGH FIZZLES OUT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST RESULTING IN A
MAINLY DRY AND MILD PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. LOOKS LIKE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING TO ALLOW THE PRECIP TO MAKE IT
VERY FAR EAST. OTHERWISE DRY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING
THE WORK WEEK. LAKE BREEZE ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER BY THE
LAKE...BUT OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUED OVER SOUTHWEST AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND NEAR
KBRD. A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW WAS PREVENTING THE LOWER CEILINGS
FURTHER EAST/NORTHEAST AND KEEPING ANY PRECIP TO VIRGA TO
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AT MOST. SOME THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS
WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WE TRENDED THAT WAY FOR
SEVERAL OF THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND KDLH
IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AS BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS KEEP A FEED OF
DRIER GOING. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
BUILD SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  43  31  49 /  60  20   0   0
INL  32  53  30  58 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  36  52  30  58 /  50  20   0   0
HYR  34  53  29  56 /  70  20   0   0
ASX  33  44  29  48 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ146-
     147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ141>145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 242356
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROF EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW. AS SUCH..THE PRIMARY AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER..WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING..ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN FAR EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST
WI. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS..BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND QPF SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.

AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS..EAST/NORTHEAST SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS..ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MANY OF
THESE SAME AREAS WILL ALSO SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FLOW OFF THE BIG LAKE PERSISTS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY THICK THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MOST AREAS..ALSO LIMITING TEMP RECOVERY ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER..SOME CLEARING/THINNING OF THE DEEP OVERCAST SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN AND ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN OVERALL DRY AND MILD PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE NORTH AT LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IS MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THAT TROUGH FIZZLES OUT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST RESULTING IN A
MAINLY DRY AND MILD PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. LOOKS LIKE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING TO ALLOW THE PRECIP TO MAKE IT
VERY FAR EAST. OTHERWISE DRY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING
THE WORK WEEK. LAKE BREEZE ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER BY THE
LAKE...BUT OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUED OVER SOUTHWEST AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND NEAR
KBRD. A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW WAS PREVENTING THE LOWER CEILINGS
FURTHER EAST/NORTHEAST AND KEEPING ANY PRECIP TO VIRGA TO
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AT MOST. SOME THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS
WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WE TRENDED THAT WAY FOR
SEVERAL OF THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND KDLH
IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AS BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS KEEP A FEED OF
DRIER GOING. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
BUILD SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  43  31  49 /  60  20   0   0
INL  32  53  30  58 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  36  52  30  58 /  50  20   0   0
HYR  34  53  29  56 /  70  20   0   0
ASX  33  44  29  48 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ146-
     147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ141>145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 242356
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROF EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW. AS SUCH..THE PRIMARY AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER..WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING..ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN FAR EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST
WI. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS..BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND QPF SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.

AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS..EAST/NORTHEAST SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS..ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MANY OF
THESE SAME AREAS WILL ALSO SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FLOW OFF THE BIG LAKE PERSISTS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY THICK THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MOST AREAS..ALSO LIMITING TEMP RECOVERY ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER..SOME CLEARING/THINNING OF THE DEEP OVERCAST SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN AND ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN OVERALL DRY AND MILD PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE NORTH AT LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IS MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THAT TROUGH FIZZLES OUT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST RESULTING IN A
MAINLY DRY AND MILD PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. LOOKS LIKE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING TO ALLOW THE PRECIP TO MAKE IT
VERY FAR EAST. OTHERWISE DRY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING
THE WORK WEEK. LAKE BREEZE ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER BY THE
LAKE...BUT OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MVFR CEILINGS CONTINUED OVER SOUTHWEST AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND NEAR
KBRD. A DRIER EASTERLY FLOW WAS PREVENTING THE LOWER CEILINGS
FURTHER EAST/NORTHEAST AND KEEPING ANY PRECIP TO VIRGA TO
FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AT MOST. SOME THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS CEILINGS
WILL LOWER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND WE TRENDED THAT WAY FOR
SEVERAL OF THE TAFS. CONFIDENCE IN THE LOWER CEILINGS AROUND KDLH
IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE AS BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS KEEP A FEED OF
DRIER GOING. CEILINGS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A RIDGE
BUILD SOUTH AND WEST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  43  31  49 /  60  20   0   0
INL  32  53  30  58 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  36  52  30  58 /  50  20   0   0
HYR  34  53  29  56 /  70  20   0   0
ASX  33  44  29  48 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ146-
     147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ141>145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$

AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 242056
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROF EJECTING FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH TOMORROW. AS SUCH..THE PRIMARY AREA OF
PRECIPITATION SHOULD ALSO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER..WEAK
FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THIS EVENING..ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN FAR EASTERN MN/NORTHWEST
WI. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS..BUT OVERALL COVERAGE AND QPF SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LESS
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED EARLIER TODAY.

AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS ON THE PLAINS..EAST/NORTHEAST SURFACE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN TONIGHT LEADING TO AN INCREASE IN WIND
SPEEDS AND GUSTS..ESPECIALLY IN AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. MANY OF
THESE SAME AREAS WILL ALSO SEE TEMPS STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE
UPPER 30S ON SATURDAY AS THE COLD FLOW OFF THE BIG LAKE PERSISTS.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY THICK THROUGH
SATURDAY IN MOST AREAS..ALSO LIMITING TEMP RECOVERY ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER..SOME CLEARING/THINNING OF THE DEEP OVERCAST SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN MN AND ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD BY SAT
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AN OVERALL DRY AND MILD PERIOD LATE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
ON SATURDAY NIGHT A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND EAST INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS DRIER AIR WORKS
IN FROM THE NORTH AT LOWER LEVELS. THIS WILL RESULT IS MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK BEFORE A WEAK
LOW/MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON
TUESDAY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE
REGION. AS THAT TROUGH FIZZLES OUT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST RESULTING IN A
MAINLY DRY AND MILD PATTERN FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ACROSS THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH. LOOKS LIKE A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES EAST OVER
NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...AND HAVE SOME DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER THERE
WILL BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING TO ALLOW THE PRECIP TO MAKE IT
VERY FAR EAST. OTHERWISE DRY...WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIP NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S DURING
THE WORK WEEK. LAKE BREEZE ON SUNDAY WILL KEEP THINGS COOLER BY THE
LAKE...BUT OTHERWISE WEAK WINDS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AT A FEW SITES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIP TODAY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY
VFR...BUT CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PRECIP GENERALLY TAPERS OFF THIS
EVENING BUT CEILINGS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR LEVELS...WITH IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT HIB AND BRD. THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT DLH/HIB.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 10KTS OR LESS...INCREASING MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  43  31  49 /  60  20   0   0
INL  32  53  30  58 /  10  10   0   0
BRD  36  52  30  58 /  50  20   0   0
HYR  34  53  29  56 /  70  20   0   0
ASX  33  44  29  48 /  60  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ141>145.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ148.

&&

$$







000
FXUS63 KDLH 241740
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1240 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THE AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS BACK ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...IN A SOMEWHAT SCATTERED NATURE.  THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA.  THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY...THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE WITH ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW.  SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA THAT ALONG WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THAT WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOL...BUT NOT AS
COOL AS TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN
TO EMERGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM/DGEX KEEPS THE REGION DRY WITH
RIDGING NEARBY. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MN WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH A
SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MN WITH A LARGER QPF SIGNAL. HAVE USED A
BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. THE PTYPE WILL BE LIQUID WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WASHES OUT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF CRUISES BY
WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF
SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC
LOW THE ECMWF FEATURED MONDAY NIGHT HAS WASHED OUT...BUT WITH THE
TROF OVERHEAD...CONTINUES TO PUMP OUT RAIN. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL
HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY
NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE
THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT
DROPS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP
OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS A RESULT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
NEXT UPPER TROF TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND
FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AT A FEW SITES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIP TODAY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY
VFR...BUT CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PRECIP GENERALLY TAPERS OFF THIS
EVENING BUT CEILINGS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR LEVELS...WITH IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT HIB AND BRD. THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT DLH/HIB.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 10KTS OR LESS...INCREASING MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  32  43  29 /  70  70  20   0
INL  49  32  52  27 /  50  50  10   0
BRD  46  36  51  30 /  60  60  20   0
HYR  48  34  51  27 /  70  70  20   0
ASX  46  33  43  28 /  60  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ141>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 241740
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1240 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THE AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS BACK ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...IN A SOMEWHAT SCATTERED NATURE.  THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA.  THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY...THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE WITH ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW.  SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA THAT ALONG WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THAT WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOL...BUT NOT AS
COOL AS TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN
TO EMERGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM/DGEX KEEPS THE REGION DRY WITH
RIDGING NEARBY. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MN WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH A
SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MN WITH A LARGER QPF SIGNAL. HAVE USED A
BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. THE PTYPE WILL BE LIQUID WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WASHES OUT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF CRUISES BY
WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF
SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC
LOW THE ECMWF FEATURED MONDAY NIGHT HAS WASHED OUT...BUT WITH THE
TROF OVERHEAD...CONTINUES TO PUMP OUT RAIN. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL
HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY
NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE
THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT
DROPS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP
OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS A RESULT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
NEXT UPPER TROF TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND
FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

GENERALLY VFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IFR CEILINGS AT A FEW SITES
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. LIGHT WIDELY SCATTERED PRECIP TODAY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING...WITH THE MIX OF RAIN/SNOW
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY
VFR...BUT CEILINGS WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
ESPECIALLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. PRECIP GENERALLY TAPERS OFF THIS
EVENING BUT CEILINGS WILL BE REDUCED TO MVFR LEVELS...WITH IFR
CEILINGS POSSIBLE AT HIB AND BRD. THESE LOWER CEILINGS WILL
GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH MID-MORNING SATURDAY...WITH OCCASIONAL
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AT DLH/HIB.

WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT OUT OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
AT 10KTS OR LESS...INCREASING MID TO LATE MORNING TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  32  43  29 /  70  70  20   0
INL  49  32  52  27 /  50  50  10   0
BRD  46  36  51  30 /  60  60  20   0
HYR  48  34  51  27 /  70  70  20   0
ASX  46  33  43  28 /  60  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR LSZ146.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CDT
     SATURDAY FOR LSZ141>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 241130
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THE AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS BACK ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...IN A SOMEWHAT SCATTERED NATURE.  THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA.  THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY...THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE WITH ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW.  SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA THAT ALONG WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THAT WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOL...BUT NOT AS
COOL AS TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN
TO EMERGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM/DGEX KEEPS THE REGION DRY WITH
RIDGING NEARBY. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MN WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH A
SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MN WITH A LARGER QPF SIGNAL. HAVE USED A
BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. THE PTYPE WILL BE LIQUID WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WASHES OUT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF CRUISES BY
WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF
SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC
LOW THE ECMWF FEATURED MONDAY NIGHT HAS WASHED OUT...BUT WITH THE
TROF OVERHEAD...CONTINUES TO PUMP OUT RAIN. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL
HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY
NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE
THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT
DROPS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP
OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS A RESULT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
NEXT UPPER TROF TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND
FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. SOME SHOWERS WERE IN THE VCNTY
OF BRD AND HAVE A MENTION. EXPECT THE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE MN TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTERNOON AT HYR...BUT HAVE VCSH BEGINNING AT 18Z AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ACTUAL START TIME AT HYR. MVFR CIGS WITH THE
RAIN. A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE AND BR IS POSSIBLE AT DLH/HIB/INL
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. IFR CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  32  43  29 /  70  70  20   0
INL  49  32  52  27 /  50  50  10   0
BRD  46  36  51  30 /  60  60  20   0
HYR  48  34  51  27 /  60  70  20   0
ASX  46  33  43  28 /  50  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 241130
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THE AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS BACK ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...IN A SOMEWHAT SCATTERED NATURE.  THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA.  THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY...THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE WITH ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW.  SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA THAT ALONG WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THAT WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOL...BUT NOT AS
COOL AS TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN
TO EMERGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM/DGEX KEEPS THE REGION DRY WITH
RIDGING NEARBY. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MN WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH A
SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MN WITH A LARGER QPF SIGNAL. HAVE USED A
BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. THE PTYPE WILL BE LIQUID WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WASHES OUT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF CRUISES BY
WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF
SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC
LOW THE ECMWF FEATURED MONDAY NIGHT HAS WASHED OUT...BUT WITH THE
TROF OVERHEAD...CONTINUES TO PUMP OUT RAIN. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL
HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY
NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE
THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT
DROPS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP
OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS A RESULT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
NEXT UPPER TROF TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND
FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. SOME SHOWERS WERE IN THE VCNTY
OF BRD AND HAVE A MENTION. EXPECT THE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE MN TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTERNOON AT HYR...BUT HAVE VCSH BEGINNING AT 18Z AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ACTUAL START TIME AT HYR. MVFR CIGS WITH THE
RAIN. A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE AND BR IS POSSIBLE AT DLH/HIB/INL
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. IFR CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  32  43  29 /  70  70  20   0
INL  49  32  52  27 /  50  50  10   0
BRD  46  36  51  30 /  60  60  20   0
HYR  48  34  51  27 /  60  70  20   0
ASX  46  33  43  28 /  50  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF









000
FXUS63 KDLH 241130
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THE AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS BACK ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...IN A SOMEWHAT SCATTERED NATURE.  THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA.  THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY...THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE WITH ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW.  SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA THAT ALONG WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THAT WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOL...BUT NOT AS
COOL AS TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN
TO EMERGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM/DGEX KEEPS THE REGION DRY WITH
RIDGING NEARBY. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MN WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH A
SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MN WITH A LARGER QPF SIGNAL. HAVE USED A
BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. THE PTYPE WILL BE LIQUID WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WASHES OUT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF CRUISES BY
WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF
SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC
LOW THE ECMWF FEATURED MONDAY NIGHT HAS WASHED OUT...BUT WITH THE
TROF OVERHEAD...CONTINUES TO PUMP OUT RAIN. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL
HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY
NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE
THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT
DROPS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP
OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS A RESULT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
NEXT UPPER TROF TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND
FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. SOME SHOWERS WERE IN THE VCNTY
OF BRD AND HAVE A MENTION. EXPECT THE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE MN TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTERNOON AT HYR...BUT HAVE VCSH BEGINNING AT 18Z AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ACTUAL START TIME AT HYR. MVFR CIGS WITH THE
RAIN. A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE AND BR IS POSSIBLE AT DLH/HIB/INL
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. IFR CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  32  43  29 /  70  70  20   0
INL  49  32  52  27 /  50  50  10   0
BRD  46  36  51  30 /  60  60  20   0
HYR  48  34  51  27 /  60  70  20   0
ASX  46  33  43  28 /  50  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF









000
FXUS63 KDLH 241130
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
630 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THE AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS BACK ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...IN A SOMEWHAT SCATTERED NATURE.  THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA.  THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY...THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE WITH ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW.  SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA THAT ALONG WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THAT WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOL...BUT NOT AS
COOL AS TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN
TO EMERGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM/DGEX KEEPS THE REGION DRY WITH
RIDGING NEARBY. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MN WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH A
SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MN WITH A LARGER QPF SIGNAL. HAVE USED A
BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. THE PTYPE WILL BE LIQUID WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WASHES OUT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF CRUISES BY
WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF
SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC
LOW THE ECMWF FEATURED MONDAY NIGHT HAS WASHED OUT...BUT WITH THE
TROF OVERHEAD...CONTINUES TO PUMP OUT RAIN. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL
HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY
NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE
THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT
DROPS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP
OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS A RESULT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
NEXT UPPER TROF TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND
FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. SOME SHOWERS WERE IN THE VCNTY
OF BRD AND HAVE A MENTION. EXPECT THE RAIN TO OVERSPREAD MOST OF
THE MN TERMINALS THROUGH THE MORNING. THE RAIN SHOULD HOLD OFF
UNTIL AFTERNOON AT HYR...BUT HAVE VCSH BEGINNING AT 18Z AS
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN ACTUAL START TIME AT HYR. MVFR CIGS WITH THE
RAIN. A TRANSITION TO DRIZZLE AND BR IS POSSIBLE AT DLH/HIB/INL
TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST. IFR CIGS/VSBYS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  32  43  29 /  70  70  20   0
INL  49  32  52  27 /  50  50  10   0
BRD  46  36  51  30 /  60  60  20   0
HYR  48  34  51  27 /  60  70  20   0
ASX  46  33  43  28 /  50  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 240837
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THE AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS BACK ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...IN A SOMEWHAT SCATTERED NATURE.  THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA.  THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY...THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE WITH ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW.  SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA THAT ALONG WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THAT WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOL...BUT NOT AS
COOL AS TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN
TO EMERGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM/DGEX KEEPS THE REGION DRY WITH
RIDGING NEARBY. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MN WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH A
SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MN WITH A LARGER QPF SIGNAL. HAVE USED A
BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. THE PTYPE WILL BE LIQUID WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WASHES OUT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF CRUISES BY
WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF
SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC
LOW THE ECMWF FEATURED MONDAY NIGHT HAS WASHED OUT...BUT WITH THE
TROF OVERHEAD...CONTINUES TO PUMP OUT RAIN. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL
HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY
NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE
THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT
DROPS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP
OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS A RESULT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
NEXT UPPER TROF TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND
FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
EXITS THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
CIGS/VIS WILL GENERALLY PLUMMET TO MVFR AFTER 16Z... AS RAIN MIXED
WITH SNOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS THAT
EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY CAUSE CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER
INTO IFR AT KDLH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH YET... SO PROVIDED A PROB
GROUP FOR THE SITE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  32  43  29 /  70  70  20   0
INL  49  32  52  27 /  50  50  10   0
BRD  46  36  51  30 /  60  60  20   0
HYR  48  34  51  27 /  60  70  20   0
ASX  46  33  43  28 /  50  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MCLOVIN








000
FXUS63 KDLH 240837
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

RAIN IS JUST BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS
MORNING.  THE AREA OF RAIN EXTENDS BACK ACROSS WESTERN MINNESOTA AND
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...IN A SOMEWHAT SCATTERED NATURE.  THIS
PRECIPITATION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE LOW OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...A BAND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND FRONTOGENESIS EXTENDING
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA SOUTHEAST INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA.  THIS AREA WILL SLOWLY TRANSLATE EAST INTO THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY...THEN SLIDE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.  THIS WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS COOL AND CLOUDY TODAY WITH SCATTERED TO LIKELY POPS
DURING THE DAYTIME AND EVENING...THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT.  MAX
TEMPS TODAY TO ONLY RISE INTO THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S ALONG THE
NORTH SHORE WITH ONSHORE EASTERLY FLOW.  SATURDAY THERE WILL BE
ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING OVER THE AREA THAT ALONG WITH
THE EASTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A LOW OVER NORTHERN MISSOURI
THAT WE WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SOME SMALL CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS IN THE MORNING.  TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOL...BUT NOT AS
COOL AS TODAY WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 40S TO LOW 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

UPPER LEVEL AND SFC RIDGING MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH MONDAY. MODEL DIFFERENCES BEGIN
TO EMERGE MONDAY NIGHT. THE GEM/DGEX KEEPS THE REGION DRY WITH
RIDGING NEARBY. THE GFS BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN MN WITH
SOME LIGHT RAIN. THE 00Z ECMWF HAS COME IN A BIT MORE ROBUST WITH A
SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MN WITH A LARGER QPF SIGNAL. HAVE USED A
BLENDED APPROACH WHICH RESULTS IN POPS OVER THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
AREA. THE PTYPE WILL BE LIQUID WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE ON TUESDAY. THE GFS WASHES OUT
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AS A POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF CRUISES BY
WITH NO ADDITIONAL RAIN. THE ECMWF HAS A DEEPER/STRONGER UPPER TROF
SLOW DOWN AS IT REACHES THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE SFC
LOW THE ECMWF FEATURED MONDAY NIGHT HAS WASHED OUT...BUT WITH THE
TROF OVERHEAD...CONTINUES TO PUMP OUT RAIN. AS A COMPROMISE...WILL
HAVE LOW POPS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TUESDAY
NIGHT HAS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST WHILE
THE UPPER TROF DEPARTS. NEXT UPPER TROF CLIPS THE ARROWHEAD AS IT
DROPS FROM ONTARIO INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. HAVE A SMALL POP
OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS A RESULT. MODELS DISAGREE ON THE
NEXT UPPER TROF TO AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY. HAVE USED A BLEND
FOR POPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 110 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT AS A HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
EXITS THE NORTHLAND TO THE EAST. CIGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER AS HIGH
CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.
CIGS/VIS WILL GENERALLY PLUMMET TO MVFR AFTER 16Z... AS RAIN MIXED
WITH SNOW MOVES INTO THE NORTHLAND. THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS THAT
EASTERLY WINDS OFF LAKE SUPERIOR MAY CAUSE CIGS/VSBYS TO LOWER
INTO IFR AT KDLH. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH YET... SO PROVIDED A PROB
GROUP FOR THE SITE.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  32  43  29 /  70  70  20   0
INL  49  32  52  27 /  50  50  10   0
BRD  46  36  51  30 /  60  60  20   0
HYR  48  34  51  27 /  60  70  20   0
ASX  46  33  43  28 /  50  60  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MCLOVIN









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