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000
FXUS63 KDLH 180523
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1123 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE FA...A TROF
REMAINS OVER NW WI TO THE TWIN PORTS AT 04Z. CLOUDS WERE
DEVELOPING/SPREADING ACROSS NW WI INTO THE TWIN PORTS ALONG THIS
TROF. THERE WERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. UPDATED SKY GRIDS AS A RESULT AND LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A BIT WHERE THE CLEAR SKY PREVAILED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 513 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

DROPPED THE HEADLINES IN NW WI AS THE SNOW HAS ENDED. STILL EXPECT
A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. REST OF THE FORECAST
UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTIAL CLEARING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. CLOUDS HAD REDEVELOPED FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
CONTINUED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT YIELDING A DIMINISHING TREND IN CLOUD COVER. DRIER AIR
NEAR-ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO END THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TREND COOLER OVER NORTHERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT AS THE RESULT OF THE CLEARING
SKIES...WHILE MILDER TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER AS THE RIDGE AXIS ADVANCES EAST INTO
WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE ARE GROWING CONCERNS THAT A WINTER STORM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PRIME HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME. READ TOWARDS THE BOTTOM FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...BUT THE LACK
OF CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG. ADDED PATCHY
FOG FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF NW WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
DRIFTING EAST OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. ITS TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN THE NORTHLAND. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SUSTAINED LOW/MID LEVEL SSW FLOW WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING SATURATION AND CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD RESULT
IN SNOW FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA. INCREASED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES.

NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...THEN
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE
NORTHLAND COULD SEE SOME SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER. THE GREATER CONCERN
IS THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A 140 TO 150 KNOT JET IN THE
WESTERN US WILL DIG A MORE POTENT WAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL THEN LIFT AND MERGE WITH THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS COULD FORM A VERY LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE
HURON BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
HAVE THE CENTER OF THE LOW APPROACHING 960 HPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WOULD LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NW WISCONSIN AND LARGE WAVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS
HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO JAMES BAY AND FAR
WESTERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND SHOWING MID/LATE WEEK
COLD SNAP FOR THE NORTHLAND AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS STORM IS STILL
QUITE A WAYS A WAY...BUT WE WILL NEED TO PROVIDE A CLOSE WATCH ON
RUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS AND HOW THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A SFC TROF OVER NW WI INTO THE TWIN PORTS WAS THE FOCUS FOR MVFR
CIGS AND A FEW FLURRIES NEAR DLH/HYR. EXPECT THE MVFR CIGS TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST. ELSEWHERE...VFR. MVFR CIGS ARRIVE AT
BRD BY 16Z AND HIB/INL AROUND 02Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   8  25  18  26 /   0  10   0  10
INL  -1  21  13  26 /   0   0   0  20
BRD   4  23  16  27 /   0   0  10  20
HYR  12  26  15  28 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  15  26  16  29 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 180418
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1018 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE FA...A TROF
REMAINS OVER NW WI TO THE TWIN PORTS AT 04Z. CLOUDS WERE
DEVELOPING/SPREADING ACROSS NW WI INTO THE TWIN PORTS ALONG THIS
TROF. THERE WERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. UPDATED SKY GRIDS AS A RESULT AND LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A BIT WHERE THE CLEAR SKY PREVAILED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 513 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

DROPPED THE HEADLINES IN NW WI AS THE SNOW HAS ENDED. STILL EXPECT
A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. REST OF THE FORECAST
UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTIAL CLEARING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. CLOUDS HAD REDEVELOPED FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
CONTINUED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT YIELDING A DIMINISHING TREND IN CLOUD COVER. DRIER AIR
NEAR-ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO END THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TREND COOLER OVER NORTHERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT AS THE RESULT OF THE CLEARING
SKIES...WHILE MILDER TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER AS THE RIDGE AXIS ADVANCES EAST INTO
WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE ARE GROWING CONCERNS THAT A WINTER STORM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PRIME HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME. READ TOWARDS THE BOTTOM FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...BUT THE LACK
OF CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG. ADDED PATCHY
FOG FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF NW WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
DRIFTING EAST OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. ITS TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN THE NORTHLAND. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SUSTAINED LOW/MID LEVEL SSW FLOW WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING SATURATION AND CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD RESULT
IN SNOW FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA. INCREASED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES.

NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...THEN
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE
NORTHLAND COULD SEE SOME SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER. THE GREATER CONCERN
IS THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A 140 TO 150 KNOT JET IN THE
WESTERN US WILL DIG A MORE POTENT WAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL THEN LIFT AND MERGE WITH THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS COULD FORM A VERY LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE
HURON BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
HAVE THE CENTER OF THE LOW APPROACHING 960 HPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WOULD LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NW WISCONSIN AND LARGE WAVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS
HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO JAMES BAY AND FAR
WESTERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND SHOWING MID/LATE WEEK
COLD SNAP FOR THE NORTHLAND AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS STORM IS STILL
QUITE A WAYS A WAY...BUT WE WILL NEED TO PROVIDE A CLOSE WATCH ON
RUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS AND HOW THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS AT DLH AND HYR AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. DLH SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 02Z WITH THE DRY AIR ARRIVING. HYR WILL REMAIN
MVFR UNTIL 15Z DUE TO THE CONTINUED FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
ELSEWHERE...VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   8  25  18  26 /   0  10   0  10
INL  -1  21  13  26 /   0   0   0  20
BRD   4  23  16  27 /   0   0  10  20
HYR  12  26  15  28 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  15  26  16  29 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 180418
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1018 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1018 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

EVEN THOUGH HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING ACROSS THE FA...A TROF
REMAINS OVER NW WI TO THE TWIN PORTS AT 04Z. CLOUDS WERE
DEVELOPING/SPREADING ACROSS NW WI INTO THE TWIN PORTS ALONG THIS
TROF. THERE WERE SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AND CLEAR
SKIES ELSEWHERE. UPDATED SKY GRIDS AS A RESULT AND LOWERED MIN
TEMPS A BIT WHERE THE CLEAR SKY PREVAILED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 513 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

DROPPED THE HEADLINES IN NW WI AS THE SNOW HAS ENDED. STILL EXPECT
A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. REST OF THE FORECAST
UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTIAL CLEARING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. CLOUDS HAD REDEVELOPED FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
CONTINUED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT YIELDING A DIMINISHING TREND IN CLOUD COVER. DRIER AIR
NEAR-ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO END THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TREND COOLER OVER NORTHERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT AS THE RESULT OF THE CLEARING
SKIES...WHILE MILDER TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER AS THE RIDGE AXIS ADVANCES EAST INTO
WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE ARE GROWING CONCERNS THAT A WINTER STORM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PRIME HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME. READ TOWARDS THE BOTTOM FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...BUT THE LACK
OF CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG. ADDED PATCHY
FOG FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF NW WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
DRIFTING EAST OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. ITS TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN THE NORTHLAND. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SUSTAINED LOW/MID LEVEL SSW FLOW WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING SATURATION AND CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD RESULT
IN SNOW FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA. INCREASED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES.

NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...THEN
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE
NORTHLAND COULD SEE SOME SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER. THE GREATER CONCERN
IS THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A 140 TO 150 KNOT JET IN THE
WESTERN US WILL DIG A MORE POTENT WAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL THEN LIFT AND MERGE WITH THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS COULD FORM A VERY LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE
HURON BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
HAVE THE CENTER OF THE LOW APPROACHING 960 HPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WOULD LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NW WISCONSIN AND LARGE WAVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS
HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO JAMES BAY AND FAR
WESTERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND SHOWING MID/LATE WEEK
COLD SNAP FOR THE NORTHLAND AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS STORM IS STILL
QUITE A WAYS A WAY...BUT WE WILL NEED TO PROVIDE A CLOSE WATCH ON
RUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS AND HOW THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS AT DLH AND HYR AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. DLH SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 02Z WITH THE DRY AIR ARRIVING. HYR WILL REMAIN
MVFR UNTIL 15Z DUE TO THE CONTINUED FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
ELSEWHERE...VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH   8  25  18  26 /   0  10   0  10
INL  -1  21  13  26 /   0   0   0  20
BRD   4  23  16  27 /   0   0  10  20
HYR  12  26  15  28 /   0  10   0   0
ASX  15  26  16  29 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 172314 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
514 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

DROPPED THE HEADLINES IN NW WI AS THE SNOW HAS ENDED. STILL EXPECT
A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. REST OF THE FORECAST
UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTIAL CLEARING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. CLOUDS HAD REDEVELOPED FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
CONTINUED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT YIELDING A DIMINISHING TREND IN CLOUD COVER. DRIER AIR
NEAR-ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO END THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TREND COOLER OVER NORTHERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT AS THE RESULT OF THE CLEARING
SKIES...WHILE MILDER TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER AS THE RIDGE AXIS ADVANCES EAST INTO
WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE ARE GROWING CONCERNS THAT A WINTER STORM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PRIME HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME. READ TOWARDS THE BOTTOM FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...BUT THE LACK
OF CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG. ADDED PATCHY
FOG FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF NW WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
DRIFTING EAST OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. ITS TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN THE NORTHLAND. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SUSTAINED LOW/MID LEVEL SSW FLOW WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING SATURATION AND CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD RESULT
IN SNOW FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA. INCREASED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES.

NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...THEN
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE
NORTHLAND COULD SEE SOME SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER. THE GREATER CONCERN
IS THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A 140 TO 150 KNOT JET IN THE
WESTERN US WILL DIG A MORE POTENT WAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL THEN LIFT AND MERGE WITH THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS COULD FORM A VERY LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE
HURON BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
HAVE THE CENTER OF THE LOW APPROACHING 960 HPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WOULD LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NW WISCONSIN AND LARGE WAVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS
HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO JAMES BAY AND FAR
WESTERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND SHOWING MID/LATE WEEK
COLD SNAP FOR THE NORTHLAND AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS STORM IS STILL
QUITE A WAYS A WAY...BUT WE WILL NEED TO PROVIDE A CLOSE WATCH ON
RUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS AND HOW THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS AT DLH AND HYR AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. DLH SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 02Z WITH THE DRY AIR ARRIVING. HYR WILL REMAIN
MVFR UNTIL 15Z DUE TO THE CONTINUED FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
ELSEWHERE...VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  25  18  26 /  10  10   0  10
INL  -1  21  13  26 /   0   0   0  20
BRD   8  23  16  27 /   0   0  10  20
HYR  12  26  15  28 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  15  26  16  29 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF









000
FXUS63 KDLH 172314 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
514 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

DROPPED THE HEADLINES IN NW WI AS THE SNOW HAS ENDED. STILL EXPECT
A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. REST OF THE FORECAST
UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTIAL CLEARING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. CLOUDS HAD REDEVELOPED FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
CONTINUED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT YIELDING A DIMINISHING TREND IN CLOUD COVER. DRIER AIR
NEAR-ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO END THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TREND COOLER OVER NORTHERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT AS THE RESULT OF THE CLEARING
SKIES...WHILE MILDER TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER AS THE RIDGE AXIS ADVANCES EAST INTO
WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE ARE GROWING CONCERNS THAT A WINTER STORM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PRIME HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME. READ TOWARDS THE BOTTOM FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...BUT THE LACK
OF CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG. ADDED PATCHY
FOG FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF NW WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
DRIFTING EAST OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. ITS TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN THE NORTHLAND. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SUSTAINED LOW/MID LEVEL SSW FLOW WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING SATURATION AND CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD RESULT
IN SNOW FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA. INCREASED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES.

NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...THEN
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE
NORTHLAND COULD SEE SOME SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER. THE GREATER CONCERN
IS THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A 140 TO 150 KNOT JET IN THE
WESTERN US WILL DIG A MORE POTENT WAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL THEN LIFT AND MERGE WITH THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS COULD FORM A VERY LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE
HURON BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
HAVE THE CENTER OF THE LOW APPROACHING 960 HPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WOULD LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NW WISCONSIN AND LARGE WAVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS
HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO JAMES BAY AND FAR
WESTERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND SHOWING MID/LATE WEEK
COLD SNAP FOR THE NORTHLAND AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS STORM IS STILL
QUITE A WAYS A WAY...BUT WE WILL NEED TO PROVIDE A CLOSE WATCH ON
RUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS AND HOW THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS AT DLH AND HYR AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. DLH SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 02Z WITH THE DRY AIR ARRIVING. HYR WILL REMAIN
MVFR UNTIL 15Z DUE TO THE CONTINUED FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
ELSEWHERE...VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  25  18  26 /  10  10   0  10
INL  -1  21  13  26 /   0   0   0  20
BRD   8  23  16  27 /   0   0  10  20
HYR  12  26  15  28 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  15  26  16  29 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF










000
FXUS63 KDLH 172313
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
513 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

DROPPED THE HEADLINES IN NW WI AS THE SNOW HAS ENDED. STILL EXPECT
A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. REST OF TH FORECAST
UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTIAL CLEARING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. CLOUDS HAD REDEVELOPED FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
CONTINUED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT YIELDING A DIMINISHING TREND IN CLOUD COVER. DRIER AIR
NEAR-ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO END THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TREND COOLER OVER NORTHERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT AS THE RESULT OF THE CLEARING
SKIES...WHILE MILDER TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER AS THE RIDGE AXIS ADVANCES EAST INTO
WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE ARE GROWING CONCERNS THAT A WINTER STORM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PRIME HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME. READ TOWARDS THE BOTTOM FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...BUT THE LACK
OF CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG. ADDED PATCHY
FOG FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF NW WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
DRIFTING EAST OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. ITS TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN THE NORTHLAND. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SUSTAINED LOW/MID LEVEL SSW FLOW WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING SATURATION AND CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD RESULT
IN SNOW FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA. INCREASED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES.

NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...THEN
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE
NORTHLAND COULD SEE SOME SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER. THE GREATER CONCERN
IS THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A 140 TO 150 KNOT JET IN THE
WESTERN US WILL DIG A MORE POTENT WAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL THEN LIFT AND MERGE WITH THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS COULD FORM A VERY LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE
HURON BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
HAVE THE CENTER OF THE LOW APPROACHING 960 HPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WOULD LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NW WISCONSIN AND LARGE WAVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS
HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO JAMES BAY AND FAR
WESTERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND SHOWING MID/LATE WEEK
COLD SNAP FOR THE NORTHLAND AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS STORM IS STILL
QUITE A WAYS A WAY...BUT WE WILL NEED TO PROVIDE A CLOSE WATCH ON
RUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS AND HOW THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS AT DLH AND HYR AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. DLH SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 02Z WITH THE DRY AIR ARRIVING. HYR WILL REMAIN
MVFR UNTIL 15Z DUE TO THE CONTINUED FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
ELSEWHERE...VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  25  18  26 /  10  10   0  10
INL  -1  21  13  26 /   0   0   0  20
BRD   8  23  16  27 /   0   0  10  20
HYR  12  26  15  28 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  15  26  16  29 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 172313
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
513 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

DROPPED THE HEADLINES IN NW WI AS THE SNOW HAS ENDED. STILL EXPECT
A SNOW SHOWER OR TWO...BUT NO ACCUMULATION. REST OF TH FORECAST
UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTIAL CLEARING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. CLOUDS HAD REDEVELOPED FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
CONTINUED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT YIELDING A DIMINISHING TREND IN CLOUD COVER. DRIER AIR
NEAR-ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO END THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TREND COOLER OVER NORTHERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT AS THE RESULT OF THE CLEARING
SKIES...WHILE MILDER TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER AS THE RIDGE AXIS ADVANCES EAST INTO
WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE ARE GROWING CONCERNS THAT A WINTER STORM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PRIME HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME. READ TOWARDS THE BOTTOM FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...BUT THE LACK
OF CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG. ADDED PATCHY
FOG FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF NW WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
DRIFTING EAST OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. ITS TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN THE NORTHLAND. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SUSTAINED LOW/MID LEVEL SSW FLOW WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING SATURATION AND CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD RESULT
IN SNOW FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA. INCREASED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES.

NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...THEN
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE
NORTHLAND COULD SEE SOME SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER. THE GREATER CONCERN
IS THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A 140 TO 150 KNOT JET IN THE
WESTERN US WILL DIG A MORE POTENT WAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL THEN LIFT AND MERGE WITH THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS COULD FORM A VERY LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE
HURON BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
HAVE THE CENTER OF THE LOW APPROACHING 960 HPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WOULD LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NW WISCONSIN AND LARGE WAVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS
HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO JAMES BAY AND FAR
WESTERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND SHOWING MID/LATE WEEK
COLD SNAP FOR THE NORTHLAND AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS STORM IS STILL
QUITE A WAYS A WAY...BUT WE WILL NEED TO PROVIDE A CLOSE WATCH ON
RUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS AND HOW THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 513 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CIGS AT DLH AND HYR AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. DLH SHOULD
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 02Z WITH THE DRY AIR ARRIVING. HYR WILL REMAIN
MVFR UNTIL 15Z DUE TO THE CONTINUED FLOW OVER LAKE SUPERIOR.
ELSEWHERE...VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  25  18  26 /  10  10   0  10
INL  -1  21  13  26 /   0   0   0  20
BRD   8  23  16  27 /   0   0  10  20
HYR  12  26  15  28 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  15  26  16  29 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 172103
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTIAL CLEARING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. CLOUDS HAD REDEVELOPED FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
CONTINUED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT YIELDING A DIMINISHING TREND IN CLOUD COVER. DRIER AIR
NEAR-ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO END THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TREND COOLER OVER NORTHERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT AS THE RESULT OF THE CLEARING
SKIES...WHILE MILDER TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER AS THE RIDGE AXIS ADVANCES EAST INTO
WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE ARE GROWING CONCERNS THAT A WINTER STORM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PRIME HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME. READ TOWARDS THE BOTTOM FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...BUT THE LACK
OF CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG. ADDED PATCHY
FOG FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF NW WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
DRIFTING EAST OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. ITS TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN THE NORTHLAND. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SUSTAINED LOW/MID LEVEL SSW FLOW WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING SATURATION AND CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD RESULT
IN SNOW FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA. INCREASED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES.

NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...THEN
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE
NORTHLAND COULD SEE SOME SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER. THE GREATER CONCERN
IS THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A 140 TO 150 KNOT JET IN THE
WESTERN US WILL DIG A MORE POTENT WAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL THEN LIFT AND MERGE WITH THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS COULD FORM A VERY LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE
HURON BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
HAVE THE CENTER OF THE LOW APPROACHING 960 HPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WOULD LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NW WISCONSIN AND LARGE WAVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS
HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO JAMES BAY AND FAR
WESTERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND SHOWING MID/LATE WEEK
COLD SNAP FOR THE NORTHLAND AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS STORM IS STILL
QUITE A WAYS A WAY...BUT WE WILL NEED TO PROVIDE A CLOSE WATCH ON
RUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS AND HOW THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING OVER NE MINNESOTA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO GRADUALLY
APPROACHES THE MINNESOTA. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE RETURNED
TO KINL/KHIB/KDLH...BKN/OVC MVFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS FROM -SN
FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING OVER KBRD AND NW WISCONSIN. THE LATEST
FORECASTS REFLECT A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER AT KBRD
FOR AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND KHYR WILL NOT LIKELY
RETURN TO VFR UNTIL SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO GREATER
MOISTURE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. CLEAR AND CALM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. HINTED AT THIS BY GIVING A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
AT KINL/KHIB/KDLH/KBRD. MUCH OF THE REGION WOULD LIKELY RETURN TO
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  14  24  16  26 /  10  10   0  10
INL   0  20  11  26 /   0   0   0  20
BRD  12  22  14  28 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  13  25  12  27 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  15  25  12  27 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ003-004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ002.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 172103
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS BUILDING ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THIS AFTERNOON RESULTING IN PARTIAL CLEARING OVER NORTH-CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. CLOUDS HAD REDEVELOPED FROM THE BRAINERD LAKES INTO
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS
CONTINUED ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT FARTHER EAST
OVERNIGHT YIELDING A DIMINISHING TREND IN CLOUD COVER. DRIER AIR
NEAR-ALOFT WILL CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALLOWING THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW TO END THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL TREND COOLER OVER NORTHERN AND PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA TONIGHT AS THE RESULT OF THE CLEARING
SKIES...WHILE MILDER TEMPERATURES REMAIN OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRIER AS THE RIDGE AXIS ADVANCES EAST INTO
WISCONSIN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL NUDGE A FEW DEGREES WARMER WITH
LIGHT WINDS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 303 PM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE ARE GROWING CONCERNS THAT A WINTER STORM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PRIME HOLIDAY TRAVEL
TIME. READ TOWARDS THE BOTTOM FOR MORE INFORMATION.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA WILL
PROVIDE ANOTHER NIGHT OF LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE WEST...BUT THE LACK
OF CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST COULD RESULT IN SOME FOG. ADDED PATCHY
FOG FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE FAR EASTERN AREA OF NW WISCONSIN.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THERE WILL BE A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW
DRIFTING EAST OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO. ITS TROUGH WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN THE NORTHLAND. MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SUSTAINED LOW/MID LEVEL SSW FLOW WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING SATURATION AND CLOUD COVER. THIS COULD RESULT
IN SNOW FLURRIES AND VERY LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER NE
MINNESOTA. INCREASED THE OVERNIGHT LOWS SINCE THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD
BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES.

NEXT WEEK...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE INDICATING AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE SUNDAY AND EARLY MONDAY...THEN
STALL OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY. THE
NORTHLAND COULD SEE SOME SNOW WITH THIS CLIPPER. THE GREATER CONCERN
IS THAT THE MODELS ARE INDICATING A 140 TO 150 KNOT JET IN THE
WESTERN US WILL DIG A MORE POTENT WAVE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS...WHICH WILL THEN LIFT AND MERGE WITH THE ALBERTA CLIPPER
OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION BY MIDDAY WEDNESDAY.
THIS COULD FORM A VERY LARGE AND DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR LAKE
HURON BY WEDNESDAY EVENING OR EARLY THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
HAVE THE CENTER OF THE LOW APPROACHING 960 HPA. THIS COULD RESULT IN
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OVER THE NORTHLAND...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN FORECAST AREA. COLDER AIR WOULD LIKELY MOVE INTO THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS
SYSTEM...WHICH COULD RESULT IN HEAVY AMOUNTS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW
OVER NW WISCONSIN AND LARGE WAVES OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. THE MODELS
HAVE THE LOW SLOWLY DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO JAMES BAY AND FAR
WESTERN QUEBEC THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND SHOWING MID/LATE WEEK
COLD SNAP FOR THE NORTHLAND AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS STORM IS STILL
QUITE A WAYS A WAY...BUT WE WILL NEED TO PROVIDE A CLOSE WATCH ON
RUN TO RUN MODEL TRENDS AND HOW THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT THE
NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING OVER NE MINNESOTA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO GRADUALLY
APPROACHES THE MINNESOTA. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE RETURNED
TO KINL/KHIB/KDLH...BKN/OVC MVFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS FROM -SN
FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING OVER KBRD AND NW WISCONSIN. THE LATEST
FORECASTS REFLECT A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER AT KBRD
FOR AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND KHYR WILL NOT LIKELY
RETURN TO VFR UNTIL SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO GREATER
MOISTURE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. CLEAR AND CALM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. HINTED AT THIS BY GIVING A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
AT KINL/KHIB/KDLH/KBRD. MUCH OF THE REGION WOULD LIKELY RETURN TO
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  14  24  16  26 /  10  10   0  10
INL   0  20  11  26 /   0   0   0  20
BRD  12  22  14  28 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  13  25  12  27 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  15  25  12  27 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ003-004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ002.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 171745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

GRAVITY WAVE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR RETURNS HAD DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY
DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SNOW RATES TO INCREASE GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVERGENCE AND GRAVITY WAVE STILL IN
PLACE. WILL EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BAYFIELD COUNTY
THROUGH 6 PM. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST
DOUGLAS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN IN BAYFIELD COUNTY OF UP TO 1.5
INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH LESS THAN ONE TENTH FARTHER INLAND AND
IN THE LOWER TERRAIN. SNOWS OVER NORTHERN IRON AND NORTHEAST
ASHLAND COUNTY WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE FOCUS SHOULD
SHIFT SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM ODANAH
EAST TO HURLEY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF UP TO 1 IS POSSIBLE IN
THOSE AREAS...WITH LESS THAN ONE TENTH FARTHER INLAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WAS LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
EVENT THIS MORNING AND INTO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

EARLY THIS MORNING...OVERNIGHT RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUED ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS NEAR-SURFACE WINDS BACKED TO THE WEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE HAD TAPERED OFF...BUT AM
EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WINDS WERE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

TODAY...THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE SETS IN DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR PARTIALLY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN OVERCAST
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL END BY MID-MORNING IN
MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BETTER ALIGN OUT OF THE NORTH. HAVE
DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS BASED ON THE
GUIDANCE AND EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS WHICH INDICATED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TEMPORARILY DISSIPATED DUE TO BACKING OF
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. RAP SOUNDINGS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE INDICATE THE
BEST LIFT TO BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO WHILE THERE
WILL BE FORCING AND MOISTURE...THE ALIGNMENT OF THE BEST LIFT MAY
RESULT IN LIMITED CRYSTAL GROWTH/AGGREGATION EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES COULD OCCUR.

DESPITE THESE RESERVATIONS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING IN PLACE UNTIL WE BEGIN TO
RECEIVE SNOWFALL REPORTS THIS MORNING TO CONFIRM RADAR AND AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BUT AM LEANING TOWARDS AN EARLY CANCELLATION
FOR THE WARNING AS ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SOME CLEARING ALONG THE ARROWHEAD REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS NEAR ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE SKIES MIGHT
CLEAR...ELSEWHERE IN THE LOW TEENS.

THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 00Z HIRES
ARW DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPING OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN TWO HARBORS AND HERBSTER...GRADUALLY DRIFTING
WEST TO BRING A FEW FLAKES TO THE NORTH SHORE BETWEEN THE TWIN PORTS
AND TWO HARBORS. DECIDED TO THROW IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THIS
REGION AS WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH A DEVELOPMENT. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PREDICATION OF A MESOSCALE FEATURE LIKE THIS SO
FAR IN ADVANCE...BUT INTERESTING TO SEE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ARW
MODEL PICK UP ON IT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AN
EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A MILD AND DRY UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NW TO PRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN CYCLONIC...BUT RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
PRIOR TO A RE-ENFORCING WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND
TRACKING TO THE EAST INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY MON NIGHT/ TUE
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ALSO USHER IN A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SNOW AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ON FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BE FELT SAT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. THE NEXT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING OVER NE MINNESOTA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO GRADUALLY
APPROACHES THE MINNESOTA. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE RETURNED
TO KINL/KHIB/KDLH...BKN/OVC MVFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS FROM -SN
FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING OVER KBRD AND NW WISCONSIN. THE LATEST
FORECASTS REFLECT A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER AT KBRD
FOR AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND KHYR WILL NOT LIKELY
RETURN TO VFR UNTIL SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO GREATER
MOISTURE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. CLEAR AND CALM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. HINTED AT THIS BY GIVING A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
AT KINL/KHIB/KDLH/KBRD. MUCH OF THE REGION WOULD LIKELY RETURN TO
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  14  24  16 /  30  10  10   0
INL  17   0  20  11 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  17  12  22  14 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  21  13  25  12 /  50  10  10   0
ASX  22  15  25  12 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ002.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HUYCK
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI









000
FXUS63 KDLH 171745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

GRAVITY WAVE AND SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR RETURNS HAD DIMINISHED SLIGHTLY
DURING THE MORNING...BUT EXPECT SNOW RATES TO INCREASE GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CONVERGENCE AND GRAVITY WAVE STILL IN
PLACE. WILL EXTEND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BAYFIELD COUNTY
THROUGH 6 PM. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST
DOUGLAS ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN IN BAYFIELD COUNTY OF UP TO 1.5
INCHES IS EXPECTED...WITH LESS THAN ONE TENTH FARTHER INLAND AND
IN THE LOWER TERRAIN. SNOWS OVER NORTHERN IRON AND NORTHEAST
ASHLAND COUNTY WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE FOCUS SHOULD
SHIFT SLIGHTLY FARTHER WEST ALONG THE HIGH TERRAIN FROM ODANAH
EAST TO HURLEY. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL OF UP TO 1 IS POSSIBLE IN
THOSE AREAS...WITH LESS THAN ONE TENTH FARTHER INLAND.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WAS LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
EVENT THIS MORNING AND INTO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

EARLY THIS MORNING...OVERNIGHT RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUED ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS NEAR-SURFACE WINDS BACKED TO THE WEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE HAD TAPERED OFF...BUT AM
EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WINDS WERE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

TODAY...THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE SETS IN DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR PARTIALLY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN OVERCAST
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL END BY MID-MORNING IN
MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BETTER ALIGN OUT OF THE NORTH. HAVE
DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS BASED ON THE
GUIDANCE AND EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS WHICH INDICATED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TEMPORARILY DISSIPATED DUE TO BACKING OF
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. RAP SOUNDINGS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE INDICATE THE
BEST LIFT TO BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO WHILE THERE
WILL BE FORCING AND MOISTURE...THE ALIGNMENT OF THE BEST LIFT MAY
RESULT IN LIMITED CRYSTAL GROWTH/AGGREGATION EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES COULD OCCUR.

DESPITE THESE RESERVATIONS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING IN PLACE UNTIL WE BEGIN TO
RECEIVE SNOWFALL REPORTS THIS MORNING TO CONFIRM RADAR AND AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BUT AM LEANING TOWARDS AN EARLY CANCELLATION
FOR THE WARNING AS ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SOME CLEARING ALONG THE ARROWHEAD REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS NEAR ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE SKIES MIGHT
CLEAR...ELSEWHERE IN THE LOW TEENS.

THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 00Z HIRES
ARW DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPING OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN TWO HARBORS AND HERBSTER...GRADUALLY DRIFTING
WEST TO BRING A FEW FLAKES TO THE NORTH SHORE BETWEEN THE TWIN PORTS
AND TWO HARBORS. DECIDED TO THROW IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THIS
REGION AS WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH A DEVELOPMENT. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PREDICATION OF A MESOSCALE FEATURE LIKE THIS SO
FAR IN ADVANCE...BUT INTERESTING TO SEE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ARW
MODEL PICK UP ON IT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AN
EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A MILD AND DRY UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NW TO PRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN CYCLONIC...BUT RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
PRIOR TO A RE-ENFORCING WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND
TRACKING TO THE EAST INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY MON NIGHT/ TUE
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ALSO USHER IN A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SNOW AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ON FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BE FELT SAT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. THE NEXT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING OVER NE MINNESOTA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO GRADUALLY
APPROACHES THE MINNESOTA. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE RETURNED
TO KINL/KHIB/KDLH...BKN/OVC MVFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS FROM -SN
FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING OVER KBRD AND NW WISCONSIN. THE LATEST
FORECASTS REFLECT A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER AT KBRD
FOR AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND KHYR WILL NOT LIKELY
RETURN TO VFR UNTIL SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO GREATER
MOISTURE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. CLEAR AND CALM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. HINTED AT THIS BY GIVING A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
AT KINL/KHIB/KDLH/KBRD. MUCH OF THE REGION WOULD LIKELY RETURN TO
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  14  24  16 /  30  10  10   0
INL  17   0  20  11 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  17  12  22  14 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  21  13  25  12 /  50  10  10   0
ASX  22  15  25  12 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ002.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HUYCK
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI










000
FXUS63 KDLH 171728 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 524 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WAS LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
EVENT THIS MORNING AND INTO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

EARLY THIS MORNING...OVERNIGHT RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUED ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS NEAR-SURFACE WINDS BACKED TO THE WEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE HAD TAPERED OFF...BUT AM
EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WINDS WERE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

TODAY...THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE SETS IN DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR PARTIALLY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN OVERCAST
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL END BY MID-MORNING IN
MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BETTER ALIGN OUT OF THE NORTH. HAVE
DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS BASED ON THE
GUIDANCE AND EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS WHICH INDICATED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TEMPORARILY DISSIPATED DUE TO BACKING OF
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. RAP SOUNDINGS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE INDICATE THE
BEST LIFT TO BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO WHILE THERE
WILL BE FORCING AND MOISTURE...THE ALIGNMENT OF THE BEST LIFT MAY
RESULT IN LIMITED CRYSTAL GROWTH/AGGREGATION EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES COULD OCCUR.

DESPITE THESE RESERVATIONS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING IN PLACE UNTIL WE BEGIN TO
RECEIVE SNOWFALL REPORTS THIS MORNING TO CONFIRM RADAR AND AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BUT AM LEANING TOWARDS AN EARLY CANCELLATION
FOR THE WARNING AS ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SOME CLEARING ALONG THE ARROWHEAD REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS NEAR ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE SKIES MIGHT
CLEAR...ELSEWHERE IN THE LOW TEENS.

THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 00Z HIRES
ARW DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPING OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN TWO HARBORS AND HERBSTER...GRADUALLY DRIFTING
WEST TO BRING A FEW FLAKES TO THE NORTH SHORE BETWEEN THE TWIN PORTS
AND TWO HARBORS. DECIDED TO THROW IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THIS
REGION AS WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH A DEVELOPMENT. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PREDICATION OF A MESOSCALE FEATURE LIKE THIS SO
FAR IN ADVANCE...BUT INTERESTING TO SEE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ARW
MODEL PICK UP ON IT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AN
EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A MILD AND DRY UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NW TO PRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN CYCLONIC...BUT RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
PRIOR TO A RE-ENFORCING WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND
TRACKING TO THE EAST INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY MON NIGHT/ TUE
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ALSO USHER IN A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SNOW AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ON FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BE FELT SAT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. THE NEXT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING OVER NE MINNESOTA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO GRADUALLY
APPROACHES THE MINNESOTA. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE RETURNED
TO KINL/KHIB/KDLH...BKN/OVC MVFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS FROM -SN
FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING OVER KBRD AND NW WISCONSIN. THE LATEST
FORECASTS REFLECT A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER AT KBRD
FOR AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND KHYR WILL NOT LIKELY
RETURN TO VFR UNTIL SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO GREATER
MOISTURE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. CLEAR AND CALM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. HINTED AT THIS BY GIVING A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
AT KINL/KHIB/KDLH/KBRD. MUCH OF THE REGION WOULD LIKELY RETURN TO
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  14  24  16 /  30  10  10   0
INL  17   0  20  11 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  17  12  22  14 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  21  13  25  12 /  50  10  10   0
ASX  22  15  25  12 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 171728 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 524 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WAS LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
EVENT THIS MORNING AND INTO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

EARLY THIS MORNING...OVERNIGHT RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUED ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS NEAR-SURFACE WINDS BACKED TO THE WEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE HAD TAPERED OFF...BUT AM
EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WINDS WERE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

TODAY...THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE SETS IN DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR PARTIALLY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN OVERCAST
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL END BY MID-MORNING IN
MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BETTER ALIGN OUT OF THE NORTH. HAVE
DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS BASED ON THE
GUIDANCE AND EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS WHICH INDICATED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TEMPORARILY DISSIPATED DUE TO BACKING OF
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. RAP SOUNDINGS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE INDICATE THE
BEST LIFT TO BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO WHILE THERE
WILL BE FORCING AND MOISTURE...THE ALIGNMENT OF THE BEST LIFT MAY
RESULT IN LIMITED CRYSTAL GROWTH/AGGREGATION EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES COULD OCCUR.

DESPITE THESE RESERVATIONS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING IN PLACE UNTIL WE BEGIN TO
RECEIVE SNOWFALL REPORTS THIS MORNING TO CONFIRM RADAR AND AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BUT AM LEANING TOWARDS AN EARLY CANCELLATION
FOR THE WARNING AS ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SOME CLEARING ALONG THE ARROWHEAD REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS NEAR ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE SKIES MIGHT
CLEAR...ELSEWHERE IN THE LOW TEENS.

THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 00Z HIRES
ARW DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPING OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN TWO HARBORS AND HERBSTER...GRADUALLY DRIFTING
WEST TO BRING A FEW FLAKES TO THE NORTH SHORE BETWEEN THE TWIN PORTS
AND TWO HARBORS. DECIDED TO THROW IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THIS
REGION AS WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH A DEVELOPMENT. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PREDICATION OF A MESOSCALE FEATURE LIKE THIS SO
FAR IN ADVANCE...BUT INTERESTING TO SEE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ARW
MODEL PICK UP ON IT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AN
EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A MILD AND DRY UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NW TO PRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN CYCLONIC...BUT RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
PRIOR TO A RE-ENFORCING WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND
TRACKING TO THE EAST INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY MON NIGHT/ TUE
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ALSO USHER IN A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SNOW AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ON FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BE FELT SAT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. THE NEXT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

THERE HAS BEEN SOME CLEARING OVER NE MINNESOTA FROM THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE IN MANITOBA AND NW ONTARIO GRADUALLY
APPROACHES THE MINNESOTA. WHILE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES HAVE RETURNED
TO KINL/KHIB/KDLH...BKN/OVC MVFR CIGS AND IFR/MVFR VSBYS FROM -SN
FARTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING OVER KBRD AND NW WISCONSIN. THE LATEST
FORECASTS REFLECT A GREATER CONFIDENCE IN CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY LINGER AT KBRD
FOR AT LEAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...AND KHYR WILL NOT LIKELY
RETURN TO VFR UNTIL SOMETIME LATE THURSDAY MORNING DUE TO GREATER
MOISTURE FLOW FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. CLEAR AND CALM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA TONIGHT AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. FOG COULD DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING. HINTED AT THIS BY GIVING A PERIOD OF MVFR VSBYS
AT KINL/KHIB/KDLH/KBRD. MUCH OF THE REGION WOULD LIKELY RETURN TO
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  14  24  16 /  30  10  10   0
INL  17   0  20  11 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  17  12  22  14 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  21  13  25  12 /  50  10  10   0
ASX  22  15  25  12 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 171128 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
528 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WAS LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
EVENT THIS MORNING AND INTO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

EARLY THIS MORNING...OVERNIGHT RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUED ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS NEAR-SURFACE WINDS BACKED TO THE WEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE HAD TAPERED OFF...BUT AM
EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WINDS WERE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

TODAY...THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE SETS IN DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR PARTIALLY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN OVERCAST
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL END BY MID-MORNING IN
MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BETTER ALIGN OUT OF THE NORTH. HAVE
DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS BASED ON THE
GUIDANCE AND EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS WHICH INDICATED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TEMPORARILY DISSIPATED DUE TO BACKING OF
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. RAP SOUNDINGS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE INDICATE THE
BEST LIFT TO BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO WHILE THERE
WILL BE FORCING AND MOISTURE...THE ALIGNMENT OF THE BEST LIFT MAY
RESULT IN LIMITED CRYSTAL GROWTH/AGGREGATION EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES COULD OCCUR.

DESPITE THESE RESERVATIONS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING IN PLACE UNTIL WE BEGIN TO
RECEIVE SNOWFALL REPORTS THIS MORNING TO CONFIRM RADAR AND AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BUT AM LEANING TOWARDS AN EARLY CANCELLATION
FOR THE WARNING AS ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SOME CLEARING ALONG THE ARROWHEAD REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS NEAR ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE SKIES MIGHT
CLEAR...ELSEWHERE IN THE LOW TEENS.

THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 00Z HIRES
ARW DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPING OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN TWO HARBORS AND HERBSTER...GRADUALLY DRIFTING
WEST TO BRING A FEW FLAKES TO THE NORTH SHORE BETWEEN THE TWIN PORTS
AND TWO HARBORS. DECIDED TO THROW IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THIS
REGION AS WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH A DEVELOPMENT. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PREDICATION OF A MESOSCALE FEATURE LIKE THIS SO
FAR IN ADVANCE...BUT INTERESTING TO SEE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ARW
MODEL PICK UP ON IT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AN
EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A MILD AND DRY UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NW TO PRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN CYCLONIC...BUT RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
PRIOR TO A RE-ENFORCING WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND
TRACKING TO THE EAST INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY MON NIGHT/ TUE
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ALSO USHER IN A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SNOW AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ON FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BE FELT SAT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. THE NEXT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY BRIEF BREAKS TO VFR AT TIMES. MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ON AND
OFF FLURRIES. WILL BEGIN TO LOSE THE MOISTURE ALOFT...BUT KEEP A
SOLID LOW LAYER OF MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND HIB AND INL...WHICH COULD CLEAR OUT...BUT
COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT AND THUR MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  14  24  16 /  30  10  10   0
INL  17   0  20  11 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  17  12  22  14 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  21  13  25  12 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  22  15  25  12 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT







000
FXUS63 KDLH 171128 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
528 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WAS LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
EVENT THIS MORNING AND INTO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

EARLY THIS MORNING...OVERNIGHT RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUED ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS NEAR-SURFACE WINDS BACKED TO THE WEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE HAD TAPERED OFF...BUT AM
EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WINDS WERE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

TODAY...THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE SETS IN DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR PARTIALLY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN OVERCAST
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL END BY MID-MORNING IN
MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BETTER ALIGN OUT OF THE NORTH. HAVE
DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS BASED ON THE
GUIDANCE AND EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS WHICH INDICATED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TEMPORARILY DISSIPATED DUE TO BACKING OF
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. RAP SOUNDINGS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE INDICATE THE
BEST LIFT TO BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO WHILE THERE
WILL BE FORCING AND MOISTURE...THE ALIGNMENT OF THE BEST LIFT MAY
RESULT IN LIMITED CRYSTAL GROWTH/AGGREGATION EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES COULD OCCUR.

DESPITE THESE RESERVATIONS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING IN PLACE UNTIL WE BEGIN TO
RECEIVE SNOWFALL REPORTS THIS MORNING TO CONFIRM RADAR AND AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BUT AM LEANING TOWARDS AN EARLY CANCELLATION
FOR THE WARNING AS ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SOME CLEARING ALONG THE ARROWHEAD REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS NEAR ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE SKIES MIGHT
CLEAR...ELSEWHERE IN THE LOW TEENS.

THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 00Z HIRES
ARW DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPING OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN TWO HARBORS AND HERBSTER...GRADUALLY DRIFTING
WEST TO BRING A FEW FLAKES TO THE NORTH SHORE BETWEEN THE TWIN PORTS
AND TWO HARBORS. DECIDED TO THROW IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THIS
REGION AS WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH A DEVELOPMENT. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PREDICATION OF A MESOSCALE FEATURE LIKE THIS SO
FAR IN ADVANCE...BUT INTERESTING TO SEE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ARW
MODEL PICK UP ON IT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AN
EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A MILD AND DRY UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NW TO PRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN CYCLONIC...BUT RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
PRIOR TO A RE-ENFORCING WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND
TRACKING TO THE EAST INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY MON NIGHT/ TUE
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ALSO USHER IN A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SNOW AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ON FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BE FELT SAT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. THE NEXT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 524 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

MVFR CEILINGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON WITH ONLY BRIEF BREAKS TO VFR AT TIMES. MVFR
VISIBILITIES IN SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITH ON AND
OFF FLURRIES. WILL BEGIN TO LOSE THE MOISTURE ALOFT...BUT KEEP A
SOLID LOW LAYER OF MOISTURE/LOW CLOUDS AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND HIB AND INL...WHICH COULD CLEAR OUT...BUT
COULD SEE REDEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE TONIGHT AND THUR MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  14  24  16 /  30  10  10   0
INL  17   0  20  11 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  17  12  22  14 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  21  13  25  12 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  22  15  25  12 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...BJT








000
FXUS63 KDLH 170917
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WAS LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
EVENT THIS MORNING AND INTO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

EARLY THIS MORNING...OVERNIGHT RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUED ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS NEAR-SURFACE WINDS BACKED TO THE WEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE HAD TAPERED OFF...BUT AM
EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WINDS WERE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

TODAY...THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE SETS IN DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR PARTIALLY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN OVERCAST
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL END BY MID-MORNING IN
MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BETTER ALIGN OUT OF THE NORTH. HAVE
DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS BASED ON THE
GUIDANCE AND EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS WHICH INDICATED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TEMPORARILY DISSIPATED DUE TO BACKING OF
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. RAP SOUNDINGS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE INDICATE THE
BEST LIFT TO BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO WHILE THERE
WILL BE FORCING AND MOISTURE...THE ALIGNMENT OF THE BEST LIFT MAY
RESULT IN LIMITED CRYSTAL GROWTH/AGGREGATION EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES COULD OCCUR.

DESPITE THESE RESERVATIONS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING IN PLACE UNTIL WE BEGIN TO
RECEIVE SNOWFALL REPORTS THIS MORNING TO CONFIRM RADAR AND AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BUT AM LEANING TOWARDS AN EARLY CANCELLATION
FOR THE WARNING AS ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SOME CLEARING ALONG THE ARROWHEAD REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS NEAR ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE SKIES MIGHT
CLEAR...ELSEWHERE IN THE LOW TEENS.

THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 00Z HIRES
ARW DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPING OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN TWO HARBORS AND HERBSTER...GRADUALLY DRIFTING
WEST TO BRING A FEW FLAKES TO THE NORTH SHORE BETWEEN THE TWIN PORTS
AND TWO HARBORS. DECIDED TO THROW IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THIS
REGION AS WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH A DEVELOPMENT. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PREDICATION OF A MESOSCALE FEATURE LIKE THIS SO
FAR IN ADVANCE...BUT INTERESTING TO SEE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ARW
MODEL PICK UP ON IT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AN
EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A MILD AND DRY UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NW TO PRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN CYCLONIC...BUT RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
PRIOR TO A RE-ENFORCING WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND
TRACKING TO THE EAST INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY MON NIGHT/ TUE
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ALSO USHER IN A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SNOW AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ON FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BE FELT SAT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. THE NEXT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH AN END TO THE SNOW AT INL
BY 10Z...HIB BY 18Z...DLH/BRD/HYR BY 00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  14  24  16 /  30  10  10   0
INL  17   0  20  11 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  17  12  22  14 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  21  13  25  12 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  22  15  25  12 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 170917
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WAS LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
EVENT THIS MORNING AND INTO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

EARLY THIS MORNING...OVERNIGHT RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUED ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS NEAR-SURFACE WINDS BACKED TO THE WEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE HAD TAPERED OFF...BUT AM
EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WINDS WERE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

TODAY...THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE SETS IN DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR PARTIALLY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN OVERCAST
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL END BY MID-MORNING IN
MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BETTER ALIGN OUT OF THE NORTH. HAVE
DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS BASED ON THE
GUIDANCE AND EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS WHICH INDICATED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TEMPORARILY DISSIPATED DUE TO BACKING OF
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. RAP SOUNDINGS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE INDICATE THE
BEST LIFT TO BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO WHILE THERE
WILL BE FORCING AND MOISTURE...THE ALIGNMENT OF THE BEST LIFT MAY
RESULT IN LIMITED CRYSTAL GROWTH/AGGREGATION EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES COULD OCCUR.

DESPITE THESE RESERVATIONS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING IN PLACE UNTIL WE BEGIN TO
RECEIVE SNOWFALL REPORTS THIS MORNING TO CONFIRM RADAR AND AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BUT AM LEANING TOWARDS AN EARLY CANCELLATION
FOR THE WARNING AS ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SOME CLEARING ALONG THE ARROWHEAD REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS NEAR ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE SKIES MIGHT
CLEAR...ELSEWHERE IN THE LOW TEENS.

THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 00Z HIRES
ARW DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPING OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN TWO HARBORS AND HERBSTER...GRADUALLY DRIFTING
WEST TO BRING A FEW FLAKES TO THE NORTH SHORE BETWEEN THE TWIN PORTS
AND TWO HARBORS. DECIDED TO THROW IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THIS
REGION AS WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH A DEVELOPMENT. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PREDICATION OF A MESOSCALE FEATURE LIKE THIS SO
FAR IN ADVANCE...BUT INTERESTING TO SEE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ARW
MODEL PICK UP ON IT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AN
EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A MILD AND DRY UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NW TO PRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN CYCLONIC...BUT RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
PRIOR TO A RE-ENFORCING WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND
TRACKING TO THE EAST INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY MON NIGHT/ TUE
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ALSO USHER IN A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SNOW AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ON FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BE FELT SAT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. THE NEXT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH AN END TO THE SNOW AT INL
BY 10Z...HIB BY 18Z...DLH/BRD/HYR BY 00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  14  24  16 /  30  10  10   0
INL  17   0  20  11 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  17  12  22  14 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  21  13  25  12 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  22  15  25  12 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 170917
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WAS LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
EVENT THIS MORNING AND INTO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

EARLY THIS MORNING...OVERNIGHT RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUED ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS NEAR-SURFACE WINDS BACKED TO THE WEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE HAD TAPERED OFF...BUT AM
EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WINDS WERE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

TODAY...THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE SETS IN DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR PARTIALLY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN OVERCAST
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL END BY MID-MORNING IN
MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BETTER ALIGN OUT OF THE NORTH. HAVE
DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS BASED ON THE
GUIDANCE AND EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS WHICH INDICATED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TEMPORARILY DISSIPATED DUE TO BACKING OF
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. RAP SOUNDINGS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE INDICATE THE
BEST LIFT TO BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO WHILE THERE
WILL BE FORCING AND MOISTURE...THE ALIGNMENT OF THE BEST LIFT MAY
RESULT IN LIMITED CRYSTAL GROWTH/AGGREGATION EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES COULD OCCUR.

DESPITE THESE RESERVATIONS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING IN PLACE UNTIL WE BEGIN TO
RECEIVE SNOWFALL REPORTS THIS MORNING TO CONFIRM RADAR AND AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BUT AM LEANING TOWARDS AN EARLY CANCELLATION
FOR THE WARNING AS ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SOME CLEARING ALONG THE ARROWHEAD REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS NEAR ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE SKIES MIGHT
CLEAR...ELSEWHERE IN THE LOW TEENS.

THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 00Z HIRES
ARW DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPING OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN TWO HARBORS AND HERBSTER...GRADUALLY DRIFTING
WEST TO BRING A FEW FLAKES TO THE NORTH SHORE BETWEEN THE TWIN PORTS
AND TWO HARBORS. DECIDED TO THROW IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THIS
REGION AS WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH A DEVELOPMENT. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PREDICATION OF A MESOSCALE FEATURE LIKE THIS SO
FAR IN ADVANCE...BUT INTERESTING TO SEE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ARW
MODEL PICK UP ON IT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AN
EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A MILD AND DRY UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NW TO PRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN CYCLONIC...BUT RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
PRIOR TO A RE-ENFORCING WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND
TRACKING TO THE EAST INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY MON NIGHT/ TUE
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ALSO USHER IN A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SNOW AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ON FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BE FELT SAT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. THE NEXT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH AN END TO THE SNOW AT INL
BY 10Z...HIB BY 18Z...DLH/BRD/HYR BY 00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  14  24  16 /  30  10  10   0
INL  17   0  20  11 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  17  12  22  14 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  21  13  25  12 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  22  15  25  12 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 170917
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WAS LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
EVENT THIS MORNING AND INTO TODAY ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR. OTHERWISE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW AS AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN ACROSS THE NORTHLAND.

EARLY THIS MORNING...OVERNIGHT RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS INDICATED WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUED ACROSS
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. AS NEAR-SURFACE WINDS BACKED TO THE WEST LAKE
EFFECT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SOUTH SHORE HAD TAPERED OFF...BUT AM
EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO REDEVELOP TOWARDS SUNRISE THIS MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WERE HOLDING STEADY IN THE LOW TEENS ACROSS NORTHERN
MINNESOTA AND IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20 IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.
WINDS WERE LIGHT OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 KTS.

TODAY...THE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF AS WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE SETS IN DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL BEGIN TO CLEAR PARTIALLY ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN OVERCAST
DURING DAYLIGHT HOURS. A FEW FLURRIES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON...BUT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL END BY MID-MORNING IN
MOST LOCATIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WHERE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS BETTER ALIGN OUT OF THE NORTH. HAVE
DECREASED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS BASED ON THE
GUIDANCE AND EARLY MORNING OBSERVATIONS WHICH INDICATED LAKE EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS HAVE TEMPORARILY DISSIPATED DUE TO BACKING OF
NEAR-SURFACE WINDS. RAP SOUNDINGS FOR THE SOUTH SHORE INDICATE THE
BEST LIFT TO BE BELOW THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE...SO WHILE THERE
WILL BE FORCING AND MOISTURE...THE ALIGNMENT OF THE BEST LIFT MAY
RESULT IN LIMITED CRYSTAL GROWTH/AGGREGATION EXCEPT FOR ALONG THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE MORE INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES COULD OCCUR.

DESPITE THESE RESERVATIONS FOR THE LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE THE CURRENT ADVISORY AND WARNING IN PLACE UNTIL WE BEGIN TO
RECEIVE SNOWFALL REPORTS THIS MORNING TO CONFIRM RADAR AND AUTOMATED
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...BUT AM LEANING TOWARDS AN EARLY CANCELLATION
FOR THE WARNING AS ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS TODAY WILL PROBABLY ONLY BE IN
THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE.

HIGHS TODAY IN THE UPPER TEENS TO NEAR 20. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER
TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AND WEAKEN TO 5 KTS OR LESS BY THE LATE
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...SOME CLEARING ALONG THE ARROWHEAD REGION OVERNIGHT WITH
NEAR CALM WINDS. A FEW LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS NEAR ZERO ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND OTHER LOCATIONS WHERE SKIES MIGHT
CLEAR...ELSEWHERE IN THE LOW TEENS.

THURSDAY...INCREASING CLOUDS AS A MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE 00Z HIRES
ARW DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONVERGENCE AND SNOW SHOWER DEVELOPING OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR BETWEEN TWO HARBORS AND HERBSTER...GRADUALLY DRIFTING
WEST TO BRING A FEW FLAKES TO THE NORTH SHORE BETWEEN THE TWIN PORTS
AND TWO HARBORS. DECIDED TO THROW IN A MENTION OF FLURRIES IN THIS
REGION AS WINDS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUCH A DEVELOPMENT. VERY
LOW CONFIDENCE IN PREDICATION OF A MESOSCALE FEATURE LIKE THIS SO
FAR IN ADVANCE...BUT INTERESTING TO SEE THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ARW
MODEL PICK UP ON IT. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 317 AM CST WED DEC 17 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK WITH AN
EXITING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST AND A MILD AND DRY UPPER
TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE NW TO PRODUCE LOW CHANCES FOR VERY LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
REMAIN CYCLONIC...BUT RELATIVELY DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEKEND
PRIOR TO A RE-ENFORCING WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE NRN ROCKIES WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW FORMING OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUN NIGHT AND
TRACKING TO THE EAST INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES BY MON NIGHT/ TUE
MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ALSO USHER IN A
MUCH COOLER AIR MASS GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. SNOW AMOUNTS
APPEAR TO BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES EARLY IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE
WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND LOWS IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
ZERO ON FRIDAY. A SLIGHT WARM UP WILL BE FELT SAT THROUGH MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE 30S AND LOWS IN THE 20S. THE NEXT DROP IN
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BACK DOWN INTO THE 20S
AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH AN END TO THE SNOW AT INL
BY 10Z...HIB BY 18Z...DLH/BRD/HYR BY 00Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  14  24  16 /  30  10  10   0
INL  17   0  20  11 /  10   0   0   0
BRD  17  12  22  14 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  21  13  25  12 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  22  15  25  12 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 170536
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1136 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE FA AT 03Z AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OVERHEAD. JUST SOME FLURRIES OVER CASS AND CROW
WING COUNTIES ATTM. LAKE EFFECT HAS YET TO BEGIN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE. LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS POINT
TOWARD THE TRUE LAKE EFFECT STARTING UP AROUND 09Z. NO CHANGES TO
HEADLINES. DID LOWER MIN TEMPS A BIT OVER THE ARROWHEAD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD A BIT AS LOW END OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS ALREADY BEING MET IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

21Z VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS A SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN
PULLING EASTWARD... WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...
AND A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROF IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS VORT
MAX WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA IN THE
SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WILL SLIDE TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP IN RESPONSE TO RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA PER LATEST KDLH IMAGERY.
OVERALL..THIS WILL BE A WIDESPREAD BUT LOW QPF EVENT..WITH
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE
LAKE EFFECT RAMPING UP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ICE SEEDING FROM ABOVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A RATHER RAPID RAMP UP OF LK EFFECT SNOW ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT..AND THERE IS ALREADY SOME
EVIDENCE OF MORE ORGANIZED SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS ON THE
KDLH RADAR OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. IRON AND
ASHLAND COUNTIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...
WITH 7 TO 11 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. COMBINATION
OF LONG N/NE FETCHES/-12 TO -14C AT 850/FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH HIGHER RH ABOVE IN THE 850-700 LAYER AND STRONGLY
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ALL SEEM TO POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THE MOST INTENSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY REMAIN UNDER A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS RATHER QUIET. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT MAY BRING SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTHLAND.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE DECREASING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
WE LINGER SOME POPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT GIVEN DRIER AIR AND LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES NEAR/OVER THE
REGION. WE ADDED SOME POPS OR FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA FRIDAY THEN WENT DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A NEED TO KEEP SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THEY DO NOT LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
ACCUMULATION. WE HAD A DRY FORECAST GOING AND WILL LEAVE IT THAT WAY
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN MN.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE REGION. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT BOTH MODELS DO SHOW IT NEAR/OVER THE
NORTHLAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH AN END TO THE SNOW AT INL
BY 10Z...HIB BY 18Z...DLH/BRD/HYR BY 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  11  23  10  25 /  80  30  10  10
INL   7  20  -1  20 /  60  30   0   0
BRD   9  21  11  22 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  14  23   8  26 /  60  20  10  10
ASX  17  24  13  27 /  80  60  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MCLOVIN/MILLER
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 170536
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1136 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE FA AT 03Z AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OVERHEAD. JUST SOME FLURRIES OVER CASS AND CROW
WING COUNTIES ATTM. LAKE EFFECT HAS YET TO BEGIN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE. LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS POINT
TOWARD THE TRUE LAKE EFFECT STARTING UP AROUND 09Z. NO CHANGES TO
HEADLINES. DID LOWER MIN TEMPS A BIT OVER THE ARROWHEAD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD A BIT AS LOW END OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS ALREADY BEING MET IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

21Z VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS A SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN
PULLING EASTWARD... WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...
AND A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROF IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS VORT
MAX WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA IN THE
SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WILL SLIDE TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP IN RESPONSE TO RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA PER LATEST KDLH IMAGERY.
OVERALL..THIS WILL BE A WIDESPREAD BUT LOW QPF EVENT..WITH
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE
LAKE EFFECT RAMPING UP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ICE SEEDING FROM ABOVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A RATHER RAPID RAMP UP OF LK EFFECT SNOW ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT..AND THERE IS ALREADY SOME
EVIDENCE OF MORE ORGANIZED SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS ON THE
KDLH RADAR OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. IRON AND
ASHLAND COUNTIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...
WITH 7 TO 11 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. COMBINATION
OF LONG N/NE FETCHES/-12 TO -14C AT 850/FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH HIGHER RH ABOVE IN THE 850-700 LAYER AND STRONGLY
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ALL SEEM TO POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THE MOST INTENSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY REMAIN UNDER A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS RATHER QUIET. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT MAY BRING SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTHLAND.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE DECREASING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
WE LINGER SOME POPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT GIVEN DRIER AIR AND LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES NEAR/OVER THE
REGION. WE ADDED SOME POPS OR FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA FRIDAY THEN WENT DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A NEED TO KEEP SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THEY DO NOT LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
ACCUMULATION. WE HAD A DRY FORECAST GOING AND WILL LEAVE IT THAT WAY
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN MN.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE REGION. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT BOTH MODELS DO SHOW IT NEAR/OVER THE
NORTHLAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1131 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF
THE FORECAST. AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH AN END TO THE SNOW AT INL
BY 10Z...HIB BY 18Z...DLH/BRD/HYR BY 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  11  23  10  25 /  80  30  10  10
INL   7  20  -1  20 /  60  30   0   0
BRD   9  21  11  22 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  14  23   8  26 /  60  20  10  10
ASX  17  24  13  27 /  80  60  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MCLOVIN/MILLER
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GSF









000
FXUS63 KDLH 170321
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
921 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE FA AT 03Z AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OVERHEAD. JUST SOME FLURRIES OVER CASS AND CROW
WING COUNTIES ATTM. LAKE EFFECT HAS YET TO BEGIN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE. LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS POINT
TOWARD THE TRUE LAKE EFFECT STARTING UP AROUND 09Z. NO CHANGES TO
HEADLINES. DID LOWER MIN TEMPS A BIT OVER THE ARROWHEAD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD A BIT AS LOW END OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS ALREADY BEING MET IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

21Z VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS A SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN
PULLING EASTWARD... WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...
AND A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROF IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS VORT
MAX WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA IN THE
SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WILL SLIDE TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP IN RESPONSE TO RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA PER LATEST KDLH IMAGERY.
OVERALL..THIS WILL BE A WIDESPREAD BUT LOW QPF EVENT..WITH
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE
LAKE EFFECT RAMPING UP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ICE SEEDING FROM ABOVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A RATHER RAPID RAMP UP OF LK EFFECT SNOW ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT..AND THERE IS ALREADY SOME
EVIDENCE OF MORE ORGANIZED SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS ON THE
KDLH RADAR OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. IRON AND
ASHLAND COUNTIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...
WITH 7 TO 11 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. COMBINATION
OF LONG N/NE FETCHES/-12 TO -14C AT 850/FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH HIGHER RH ABOVE IN THE 850-700 LAYER AND STRONGLY
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ALL SEEM TO POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THE MOST INTENSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY REMAIN UNDER A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS RATHER QUIET. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT MAY BRING SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTHLAND.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE DECREASING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
WE LINGER SOME POPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT GIVEN DRIER AIR AND LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES NEAR/OVER THE
REGION. WE ADDED SOME POPS OR FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA FRIDAY THEN WENT DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A NEED TO KEEP SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THEY DO NOT LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
ACCUMULATION. WE HAD A DRY FORECAST GOING AND WILL LEAVE IT THAT WAY
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN MN.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE REGION. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT BOTH MODELS DO SHOW IT NEAR/OVER THE
NORTHLAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  11  23  10  25 /  80  30  10  10
INL   7  20  -1  20 /  60  30   0   0
BRD   9  21  11  22 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  14  23   8  26 /  60  20  10  10
ASX  17  24  13  27 /  80  60  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MCLOVIN/MILLER
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 170321
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
921 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 921 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE FA AT 03Z AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO DRIFT OVERHEAD. JUST SOME FLURRIES OVER CASS AND CROW
WING COUNTIES ATTM. LAKE EFFECT HAS YET TO BEGIN ALONG THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE. LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS POINT
TOWARD THE TRUE LAKE EFFECT STARTING UP AROUND 09Z. NO CHANGES TO
HEADLINES. DID LOWER MIN TEMPS A BIT OVER THE ARROWHEAD.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD A BIT AS LOW END OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS ALREADY BEING MET IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

21Z VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS A SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN
PULLING EASTWARD... WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...
AND A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROF IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS VORT
MAX WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA IN THE
SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WILL SLIDE TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP IN RESPONSE TO RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA PER LATEST KDLH IMAGERY.
OVERALL..THIS WILL BE A WIDESPREAD BUT LOW QPF EVENT..WITH
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE
LAKE EFFECT RAMPING UP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ICE SEEDING FROM ABOVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A RATHER RAPID RAMP UP OF LK EFFECT SNOW ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT..AND THERE IS ALREADY SOME
EVIDENCE OF MORE ORGANIZED SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS ON THE
KDLH RADAR OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. IRON AND
ASHLAND COUNTIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...
WITH 7 TO 11 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. COMBINATION
OF LONG N/NE FETCHES/-12 TO -14C AT 850/FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH HIGHER RH ABOVE IN THE 850-700 LAYER AND STRONGLY
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ALL SEEM TO POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THE MOST INTENSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY REMAIN UNDER A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS RATHER QUIET. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT MAY BRING SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTHLAND.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE DECREASING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
WE LINGER SOME POPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT GIVEN DRIER AIR AND LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES NEAR/OVER THE
REGION. WE ADDED SOME POPS OR FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA FRIDAY THEN WENT DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A NEED TO KEEP SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THEY DO NOT LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
ACCUMULATION. WE HAD A DRY FORECAST GOING AND WILL LEAVE IT THAT WAY
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN MN.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE REGION. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT BOTH MODELS DO SHOW IT NEAR/OVER THE
NORTHLAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  11  23  10  25 /  80  30  10  10
INL   7  20  -1  20 /  60  30   0   0
BRD   9  21  11  22 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  14  23   8  26 /  60  20  10  10
ASX  17  24  13  27 /  80  60  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MCLOVIN/MILLER
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 170031
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
631 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD A BIT AS LOW END OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS ALREADY BEING MET IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

21Z VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS A SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN
PULLING EASTWARD... WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...
AND A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROF IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS VORT
MAX WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA IN THE
SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WILL SLIDE TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP IN RESPONSE TO RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA PER LATEST KDLH IMAGERY.
OVERALL..THIS WILL BE A WIDESPREAD BUT LOW QPF EVENT..WITH
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE
LAKE EFFECT RAMPING UP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ICE SEEDING FROM ABOVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A RATHER RAPID RAMP UP OF LK EFFECT SNOW ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT..AND THERE IS ALREADY SOME
EVIDENCE OF MORE ORGANIZED SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS ON THE
KDLH RADAR OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. IRON AND
ASHLAND COUNTIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...
WITH 7 TO 11 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. COMBINATION
OF LONG N/NE FETCHES/-12 TO -14C AT 850/FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH HIGHER RH ABOVE IN THE 850-700 LAYER AND STRONGLY
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ALL SEEM TO POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THE MOST INTENSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY REMAIN UNDER A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS RATHER QUIET. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT MAY BRING SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTHLAND.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE DECREASING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
WE LINGER SOME POPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT GIVEN DRIER AIR AND LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES NEAR/OVER THE
REGION. WE ADDED SOME POPS OR FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA FRIDAY THEN WENT DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A NEED TO KEEP SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THEY DO NOT LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
ACCUMULATION. WE HAD A DRY FORECAST GOING AND WILL LEAVE IT THAT WAY
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN MN.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE REGION. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT BOTH MODELS DO SHOW IT NEAR/OVER THE
NORTHLAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  11  23  10  25 /  80  30  10  10
INL   7  20  -1  20 /  60  30   0   0
BRD   9  21  11  22 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  14  23   8  26 /  60  20  10  10
ASX  17  24  13  27 /  80  60  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MCLOVIN/MILLER
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GSF








000
FXUS63 KDLH 170031
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
631 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

ADJUSTED MIN TEMPS DOWNWARD A BIT AS LOW END OF PREVIOUS FORECAST
WAS ALREADY BEING MET IN SOME SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

21Z VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS A SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN
PULLING EASTWARD... WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...
AND A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROF IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS VORT
MAX WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA IN THE
SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WILL SLIDE TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP IN RESPONSE TO RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA PER LATEST KDLH IMAGERY.
OVERALL..THIS WILL BE A WIDESPREAD BUT LOW QPF EVENT..WITH
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE
LAKE EFFECT RAMPING UP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ICE SEEDING FROM ABOVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A RATHER RAPID RAMP UP OF LK EFFECT SNOW ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT..AND THERE IS ALREADY SOME
EVIDENCE OF MORE ORGANIZED SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS ON THE
KDLH RADAR OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. IRON AND
ASHLAND COUNTIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...
WITH 7 TO 11 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. COMBINATION
OF LONG N/NE FETCHES/-12 TO -14C AT 850/FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH HIGHER RH ABOVE IN THE 850-700 LAYER AND STRONGLY
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ALL SEEM TO POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THE MOST INTENSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY REMAIN UNDER A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS RATHER QUIET. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT MAY BRING SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTHLAND.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE DECREASING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
WE LINGER SOME POPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT GIVEN DRIER AIR AND LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES NEAR/OVER THE
REGION. WE ADDED SOME POPS OR FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA FRIDAY THEN WENT DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A NEED TO KEEP SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THEY DO NOT LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
ACCUMULATION. WE HAD A DRY FORECAST GOING AND WILL LEAVE IT THAT WAY
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN MN.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE REGION. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT BOTH MODELS DO SHOW IT NEAR/OVER THE
NORTHLAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  11  23  10  25 /  80  30  10  10
INL   7  20  -1  20 /  60  30   0   0
BRD   9  21  11  22 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  14  23   8  26 /  60  20  10  10
ASX  17  24  13  27 /  80  60  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MCLOVIN/MILLER
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GSF







000
FXUS63 KDLH 162328
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
528 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

21Z VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS A SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN
PULLING EASTWARD... WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...
AND A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROF IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS VORT
MAX WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA IN THE
SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WILL SLIDE TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP IN RESPONSE TO RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA PER LATEST KDLH IMAGERY.
OVERALL..THIS WILL BE A WIDESPREAD BUT LOW QPF EVENT..WITH
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE
LAKE EFFECT RAMPING UP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ICE SEEDING FROM ABOVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A RATHER RAPID RAMP UP OF LK EFFECT SNOW ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT..AND THERE IS ALREADY SOME
EVIDENCE OF MORE ORGANIZED SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS ON THE
KDLH RADAR OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. IRON AND
ASHLAND COUNTIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...
WITH 7 TO 11 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. COMBINATION
OF LONG N/NE FETCHES/-12 TO -14C AT 850/FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH HIGHER RH ABOVE IN THE 850-700 LAYER AND STRONGLY
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ALL SEEM TO POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THE MOST INTENSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY REMAIN UNDER A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS RATHER QUIET. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT MAY BRING SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTHLAND.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE DECREASING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
WE LINGER SOME POPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT GIVEN DRIER AIR AND LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES NEAR/OVER THE
REGION. WE ADDED SOME POPS OR FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA FRIDAY THEN WENT DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A NEED TO KEEP SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THEY DO NOT LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
ACCUMULATION. WE HAD A DRY FORECAST GOING AND WILL LEAVE IT THAT WAY
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN MN.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE REGION. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT BOTH MODELS DO SHOW IT NEAR/OVER THE
NORTHLAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A MIX OF VFR/MVFR CIGS WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW REDUCING VSBYS
INTO THE MVFR RANGE. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  23  10  25 /  60  30  10  10
INL  12  20  -1  20 /  60  30   0   0
BRD  12  21  11  22 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  16  23   8  26 /  60  20  10  10
ASX  20  24  13  27 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCLOVIN/MILLER
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GSF









000
FXUS63 KDLH 162226
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
426 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

21Z VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS A SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN
PULLING EASTWARD... WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...
AND A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROF IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS VORT
MAX WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA IN THE
SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WILL SLIDE TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP IN RESPONSE TO RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA PER LATEST KDLH IMAGERY.
OVERALL..THIS WILL BE A WIDESPREAD BUT LOW QPF EVENT..WITH
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE
LAKE EFFECT RAMPING UP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ICE SEEDING FROM ABOVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A RATHER RAPID RAMP UP OF LK EFFECT SNOW ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT..AND THERE IS ALREADY SOME
EVIDENCE OF MORE ORGANIZED SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS ON THE
KDLH RADAR OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. IRON AND
ASHLAND COUNTIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...
WITH 7 TO 11 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. COMBINATION
OF LONG N/NE FETCHES/-12 TO -14C AT 850/FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH HIGHER RH ABOVE IN THE 850-700 LAYER AND STRONGLY
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ALL SEEM TO POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THE MOST INTENSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY REMAIN UNDER A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS RATHER QUIET. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT MAY BRING SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTHLAND.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE DECREASING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
WE LINGER SOME POPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT GIVEN DRIER AIR AND LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES NEAR/OVER THE
REGION. WE ADDED SOME POPS OR FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA FRIDAY THEN WENT DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A NEED TO KEEP SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THEY DO NOT LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
ACCUMULATION. WE HAD A DRY FORECAST GOING AND WILL LEAVE IT THAT WAY
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN MN.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE REGION. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT BOTH MODELS DO SHOW IT NEAR/OVER THE
NORTHLAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING AND WE EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
A MID LEVEL WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS. WE DO EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AS THE WAVE DEPARTS BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST TAF SITES.
WE DID LIFT CEILINGS TO VFR AT KINL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  23  10  25 /  50  30  10  10
INL  12  20  -1  20 /  60  30   0   0
BRD  12  21  11  22 /  20  10  10   0
HYR  16  23   8  26 /  40  20  10  10
ASX  20  24  13  27 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCLOVIN/MILLER
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 162226
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
426 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

21Z VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS A SFC LOW OVER WESTERN MICHIGAN
PULLING EASTWARD... WITH SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA...
AND A MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL TROF IN NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA. THIS VORT
MAX WILL BE A FOCUS FOR ONGOING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS OUR CWA IN THE
SHORT TERM. MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW
WILL SLIDE TO SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP IN RESPONSE TO RATHER WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF LIGHT SNOW
OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CWA PER LATEST KDLH IMAGERY.
OVERALL..THIS WILL BE A WIDESPREAD BUT LOW QPF EVENT..WITH
GENERALLY AN INCH OR LESS ACCUM THROUGH TONIGHT EXCEPT FOR THE
LAKE EFFECT RAMPING UP ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE.

WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ICE SEEDING FROM ABOVE SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A RATHER RAPID RAMP UP OF LK EFFECT SNOW ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT..AND THERE IS ALREADY SOME
EVIDENCE OF MORE ORGANIZED SHALLOW LAKE EFFECT STREAMERS ON THE
KDLH RADAR OVER THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA. IRON AND
ASHLAND COUNTIES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO A WINTER STORM WARNING...
WITH 7 TO 11 INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. COMBINATION
OF LONG N/NE FETCHES/-12 TO -14C AT 850/FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WITH HIGHER RH ABOVE IN THE 850-700 LAYER AND STRONGLY
CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE ALL SEEM TO POINT TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL. THE MOST INTENSE RATES
ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY REMAIN UNDER A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY WITH LESSER AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 7 INCHES EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 425 PM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS RATHER QUIET. HOWEVER...THERE IS A
MORE SIGNIFICANT LOW AT THE END OF THE PERIOD THAT MAY BRING SNOW
ACCUMULATION TO THE NORTHLAND.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL BE DECREASING QUICKLY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH AND THE FLOW BECOMES MORE ANTICYCLONIC.
WE LINGER SOME POPS ALONG PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH SHORE INTO THE
EVENING...BUT GIVEN DRIER AIR AND LESS FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY...WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

MOST OF THE MODELS SHOW A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHLAND FRIDAY...AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES NEAR/OVER THE
REGION. WE ADDED SOME POPS OR FLURRIES TO PORTIONS OF NORTHERN
MINNESOTA FRIDAY THEN WENT DRY FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
THERE MAY BE A NEED TO KEEP SOME FLURRIES/LIGHT SNOW INTO THE
WEEKEND AS SEVERAL MORE SHORTWAVES ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA.
HOWEVER...THEY DO NOT LOOK TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE MUCH
ACCUMULATION. WE HAD A DRY FORECAST GOING AND WILL LEAVE IT THAT WAY
UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN WE HAVE SOME LOW POPS OVER FAR NORTHERN MN.

BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF CONTINUE TO FORECAST A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM BY EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE REGION. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT BOTH MODELS DO SHOW IT NEAR/OVER THE
NORTHLAND. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SEVERAL INCHES OF
SNOW ACCUMULATION DURING A BUSY TRAVEL PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING AND WE EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
A MID LEVEL WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS. WE DO EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AS THE WAVE DEPARTS BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST TAF SITES.
WE DID LIFT CEILINGS TO VFR AT KINL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  23  10  25 /  50  30  10  10
INL  12  20  -1  20 /  60  30   0   0
BRD  12  21  11  22 /  20  10  10   0
HYR  16  23   8  26 /  40  20  10  10
ASX  20  24  13  27 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MCLOVIN/MILLER
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 161733
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1133 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS NW WISCONSIN WILL
CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..BUT WILL
STILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW BY
EVENING. MEANWHILE..SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/VORT
MAX CENTERED OVER NW MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD..RESULTING IN PERSISTENT WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING..WITH THE LONGEST DURATION OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EXPECTED WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW..WE RATHER DRASTICALLY INCREASED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE PATH OF THIS LOW..BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
REFLECT THE LONG DURATION/VERY LIGHT QPF NATURE OF THE EVENT. WE
MAY NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THE MN ARROWHEAD FOR AN ADVISORY..MAINLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES WHERE PRECIP DURATION
WILL BE THE LONGEST INTO WED MORNING.

OTHER ITEM THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE UPGRADE TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR ASHLAND/IRON
COUNTIES. COMBINATION OF LONG N/NE FETCHES/-12 TO -14C AT
850/FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH HIGHER RH ABOVE IN
THE 850-700 LAYER AND STRONGLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE ALL SEEM TO POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL. THE MOST INTENSE RATES ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS SNOWFALL OVER NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN LINGERING OVER AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UNTIL DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING. INCREASED PCPN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NW
WISCONSIN...AND ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FROM IRON TO
BAYFIELD COUNTIES.

AT 300 AM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WHICH WAS LIFTING TO THE ENE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE NORTHLAND WAS IN
THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY.
THERE WERE GUSTY NORTH TO NNW WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 30S IN NW WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE WAS LINGERING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

TODAY...THERE WILL BE LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BAND FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS WELL AS
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER NW WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW.
MOST OF THE SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD...TWIN PORTS...AND INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT THE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NW WISCONSIN AND THE FAR NE ARROWHEAD. THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST COULD SEE FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN NW ONTARIO DROPS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
GUSTY NORTH TO NNW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT LINGERING SNOW
OVER AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS MORE TRUE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DUE TO COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ARROWHEAD CAN EXPECT ABOUT
1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NW
WISCONSIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FROM IRON TO BAYFIELD COUNTIES IN
NW WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE WHERE TOTALS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES AREA FORECAST. LESSER
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN ASHLAND
AND NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE LONG DURATION PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES FOR NW WISCONSIN. THE HEAVIEST
RATES ARE LIKELY DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
EVALUATED THE AMOUNTS FORECASTED AND THE DURATION IT WILL TAKE TO
REACH THESE TOTALS...AND DECIDED LONG DURATION WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE THE MOST APPROPRIATE HEADLINES FOR THIS SITUATION.

THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH THE SNOW IN NW
WISCONSIN...ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VISIBILITY COULD
BE LOW IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...ABOUT HALF MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LOWS FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 10 IN THE
SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS HANDLE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS HAS THE MAIN LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN
LOW IN IOWA MONDAY NIGHT AND IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW THAN THE GFS. WITH THIS
FORECAST BEING 7 DAYS OUT...THERE WILL BE CHANCES SO WILL HAVE CHC
SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MID-WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUED TO FALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND THIS
MORNING AND WE EXPECT THAT TO CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD AS
A MID LEVEL WAVE DROPS THROUGH THE REGION. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST AREAS. WE DO EXPECT IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AS THE WAVE DEPARTS BUT MVFR
CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD FOR MOST TAF SITES.
WE DID LIFT CEILINGS TO VFR AT KINL AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  11  21   8 /  60  50  20  10
INL  17   5  19   0 /  70  60  20   0
BRD  19   9  20   8 /  20  10  10  10
HYR  26  12  23   8 /  80  40  10  10
ASX  27  16  24  13 /  80  70  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER/MCLOVIN
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 161623 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1023 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS NW WISCONSIN WILL
CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..BUT WILL
STILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW BY
EVENING. MEANWHILE..SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/VORT
MAX CENTERED OVER NW MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD..RESULTING IN PERSISTENT WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING..WITH THE LONGEST DURATION OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EXPECTED WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW..WE RATHER DRASTICALLY INCREASED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE PATH OF THIS LOW..BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
REFLECT THE LONG DURATION/VERY LIGHT QPF NATURE OF THE EVENT. WE
MAY NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THE MN ARROWHEAD FOR AN ADVISORY..MAINLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES WHERE PRECIP DURATION
WILL BE THE LONGEST INTO WED MORNING.

OTHER ITEM THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE UPGRADE TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR ASHLAND/IRON
COUNTIES. COMBINATION OF LONG N/NE FETCHES/-12 TO -14C AT
850/FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH HIGHER RH ABOVE IN
THE 850-700 LAYER AND STRONGLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE ALL SEEM TO POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL. THE MOST INTENSE RATES ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS SNOWFALL OVER NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN LINGERING OVER AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UNTIL DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING. INCREASED PCPN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NW
WISCONSIN...AND ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FROM IRON TO
BAYFIELD COUNTIES.

AT 300 AM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WHICH WAS LIFTING TO THE ENE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE NORTHLAND WAS IN
THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY.
THERE WERE GUSTY NORTH TO NNW WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 30S IN NW WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE WAS LINGERING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

TODAY...THERE WILL BE LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BAND FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS WELL AS
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER NW WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW.
MOST OF THE SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD...TWIN PORTS...AND INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT THE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NW WISCONSIN AND THE FAR NE ARROWHEAD. THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST COULD SEE FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN NW ONTARIO DROPS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
GUSTY NORTH TO NNW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT LINGERING SNOW
OVER AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS MORE TRUE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DUE TO COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ARROWHEAD CAN EXPECT ABOUT
1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NW
WISCONSIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FROM IRON TO BAYFIELD COUNTIES IN
NW WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE WHERE TOTALS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES AREA FORECAST. LESSER
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN ASHLAND
AND NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE LONG DURATION PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES FOR NW WISCONSIN. THE HEAVIEST
RATES ARE LIKELY DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
EVALUATED THE AMOUNTS FORECASTED AND THE DURATION IT WILL TAKE TO
REACH THESE TOTALS...AND DECIDED LONG DURATION WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE THE MOST APPROPRIATE HEADLINES FOR THIS SITUATION.

THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH THE SNOW IN NW
WISCONSIN...ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VISIBILITY COULD
BE LOW IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...ABOUT HALF MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LOWS FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 10 IN THE
SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS HANDLE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS HAS THE MAIN LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN
LOW IN IOWA MONDAY NIGHT AND IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW THAN THE GFS. WITH THIS
FORECAST BEING 7 DAYS OUT...THERE WILL BE CHANCES SO WILL HAVE CHC
SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MID-WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAINLY IFR CIGS WILL COVER THE TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
AREAS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
THE CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS HYR THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS AT THE INL/BRD SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...CIGS WILL BE MAINLY IFR WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  11  21   8 /  60  50  20  10
INL  17   5  19   0 /  70  60  20   0
BRD  19   9  20   8 /  20  10  10  10
HYR  26  12  23   8 /  80  40  10  10
ASX  27  16  24  13 /  80  70  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER/MCLOVIN
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART







000
FXUS63 KDLH 161623 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1023 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1023 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

WEAKENING MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ACROSS NW WISCONSIN WILL
CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON..BUT WILL
STILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT FOR ANOTHER INCH OR TWO OF SNOW BY
EVENING. MEANWHILE..SECONDARY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION/VORT
MAX CENTERED OVER NW MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD..RESULTING IN PERSISTENT WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE CIRCULATION. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
A MAINTENANCE OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING..WITH THE LONGEST DURATION OVER
THE ARROWHEAD. TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS EXPECTED WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW..WE RATHER DRASTICALLY INCREASED POPS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
ALONG AND NORTHEAST OF THE PATH OF THIS LOW..BUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
REFLECT THE LONG DURATION/VERY LIGHT QPF NATURE OF THE EVENT. WE
MAY NEED TO RE-EVALUATE THE MN ARROWHEAD FOR AN ADVISORY..MAINLY
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF LAKE/COOK COUNTIES WHERE PRECIP DURATION
WILL BE THE LONGEST INTO WED MORNING.

OTHER ITEM THAT WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE UPGRADE TO A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING FOR ASHLAND/IRON
COUNTIES. COMBINATION OF LONG N/NE FETCHES/-12 TO -14C AT
850/FAIRLY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WITH HIGHER RH ABOVE IN
THE 850-700 LAYER AND STRONGLY CONVERGENT FLOW ALONG THE SOUTH
SHORE ALL SEEM TO POINT TO THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL. THE MOST INTENSE RATES ARE EXPECTED LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS SNOWFALL OVER NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN LINGERING OVER AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UNTIL DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING. INCREASED PCPN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NW
WISCONSIN...AND ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FROM IRON TO
BAYFIELD COUNTIES.

AT 300 AM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WHICH WAS LIFTING TO THE ENE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE NORTHLAND WAS IN
THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY.
THERE WERE GUSTY NORTH TO NNW WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 30S IN NW WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE WAS LINGERING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

TODAY...THERE WILL BE LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BAND FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS WELL AS
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER NW WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW.
MOST OF THE SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD...TWIN PORTS...AND INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT THE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NW WISCONSIN AND THE FAR NE ARROWHEAD. THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST COULD SEE FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN NW ONTARIO DROPS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
GUSTY NORTH TO NNW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT LINGERING SNOW
OVER AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS MORE TRUE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DUE TO COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ARROWHEAD CAN EXPECT ABOUT
1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NW
WISCONSIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FROM IRON TO BAYFIELD COUNTIES IN
NW WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE WHERE TOTALS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES AREA FORECAST. LESSER
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN ASHLAND
AND NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE LONG DURATION PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES FOR NW WISCONSIN. THE HEAVIEST
RATES ARE LIKELY DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
EVALUATED THE AMOUNTS FORECASTED AND THE DURATION IT WILL TAKE TO
REACH THESE TOTALS...AND DECIDED LONG DURATION WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE THE MOST APPROPRIATE HEADLINES FOR THIS SITUATION.

THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH THE SNOW IN NW
WISCONSIN...ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VISIBILITY COULD
BE LOW IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...ABOUT HALF MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LOWS FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 10 IN THE
SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS HANDLE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS HAS THE MAIN LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN
LOW IN IOWA MONDAY NIGHT AND IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW THAN THE GFS. WITH THIS
FORECAST BEING 7 DAYS OUT...THERE WILL BE CHANCES SO WILL HAVE CHC
SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MID-WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAINLY IFR CIGS WILL COVER THE TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
AREAS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
THE CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS HYR THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS AT THE INL/BRD SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...CIGS WILL BE MAINLY IFR WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  22  11  21   8 /  60  50  20  10
INL  17   5  19   0 /  70  60  20   0
BRD  19   9  20   8 /  20  10  10  10
HYR  26  12  23   8 /  80  40  10  10
ASX  27  16  24  13 /  80  70  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     145>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>142.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER/MCLOVIN
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 161205
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
605 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM OF PRODUCT...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS SNOWFALL OVER NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN LINGERING OVER AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UNTIL DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING. INCREASED PCPN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NW
WISCONSIN...AND ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FROM IRON TO
BAYFIELD COUNTIES.

AT 300 AM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WHICH WAS LIFTING TO THE ENE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE NORTHLAND WAS IN
THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY.
THERE WERE GUSTY NORTH TO NNW WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 30S IN NW WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE WAS LINGERING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

TODAY...THERE WILL BE LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BAND FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS WELL AS
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER NW WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW.
MOST OF THE SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD...TWIN PORTS...AND INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT THE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NW WISCONSIN AND THE FAR NE ARROWHEAD. THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST COULD SEE FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN NW ONTARIO DROPS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
GUSTY NORTH TO NNW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT LINGERING SNOW
OVER AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS MORE TRUE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DUE TO COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ARROWHEAD CAN EXPECT ABOUT
1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NW
WISCONSIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FROM IRON TO BAYFIELD COUNTIES IN
NW WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE WHERE TOTALS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES AREA FORECAST. LESSER
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN ASHLAND
AND NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE LONG DURATION PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES FOR NW WISCONSIN. THE HEAVIEST
RATES ARE LIKELY DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
EVALUATED THE AMOUNTS FORECASTED AND THE DURATION IT WILL TAKE TO
REACH THESE TOTALS...AND DECIDED LONG DURATION WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE THE MOST APPROPRIATE HEADLINES FOR THIS SITUATION.

THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH THE SNOW IN NW
WISCONSIN...ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VISIBILITY COULD
BE LOW IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...ABOUT HALF MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LOWS FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 10 IN THE
SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS HANDLE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS HAS THE MAIN LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN
LOW IN IOWA MONDAY NIGHT AND IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW THAN THE GFS. WITH THIS
FORECAST BEING 7 DAYS OUT...THERE WILL BE CHANCES SO WILL HAVE CHC
SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MID-WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAINLY IFR CIGS WILL COVER THE TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
AREAS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
THE CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS HYR THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS AT THE INL/BRD SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...CIGS WILL BE MAINLY IFR WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  11  21   8 /  30  20  20  10
INL  16   5  19   0 /  30  30  20   0
BRD  20   9  20   8 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  25  12  23   8 /  80  20  10  10
ASX  25  16  24  13 /  80  60  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 161205
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
605 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

...12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION AT BOTTOM OF PRODUCT...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS SNOWFALL OVER NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN LINGERING OVER AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UNTIL DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING. INCREASED PCPN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NW
WISCONSIN...AND ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FROM IRON TO
BAYFIELD COUNTIES.

AT 300 AM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WHICH WAS LIFTING TO THE ENE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE NORTHLAND WAS IN
THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY.
THERE WERE GUSTY NORTH TO NNW WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 30S IN NW WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE WAS LINGERING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

TODAY...THERE WILL BE LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BAND FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS WELL AS
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER NW WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW.
MOST OF THE SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD...TWIN PORTS...AND INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT THE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NW WISCONSIN AND THE FAR NE ARROWHEAD. THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST COULD SEE FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN NW ONTARIO DROPS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
GUSTY NORTH TO NNW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT LINGERING SNOW
OVER AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS MORE TRUE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DUE TO COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ARROWHEAD CAN EXPECT ABOUT
1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NW
WISCONSIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FROM IRON TO BAYFIELD COUNTIES IN
NW WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE WHERE TOTALS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES AREA FORECAST. LESSER
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN ASHLAND
AND NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE LONG DURATION PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES FOR NW WISCONSIN. THE HEAVIEST
RATES ARE LIKELY DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
EVALUATED THE AMOUNTS FORECASTED AND THE DURATION IT WILL TAKE TO
REACH THESE TOTALS...AND DECIDED LONG DURATION WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE THE MOST APPROPRIATE HEADLINES FOR THIS SITUATION.

THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH THE SNOW IN NW
WISCONSIN...ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VISIBILITY COULD
BE LOW IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...ABOUT HALF MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LOWS FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 10 IN THE
SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS HANDLE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS HAS THE MAIN LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN
LOW IN IOWA MONDAY NIGHT AND IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW THAN THE GFS. WITH THIS
FORECAST BEING 7 DAYS OUT...THERE WILL BE CHANCES SO WILL HAVE CHC
SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MID-WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 601 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAINLY IFR CIGS WILL COVER THE TAF SITES FOR MOST OF THE DAYLIGHT
AREAS AS A NORTHERLY FLOW AROUND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL KEEP
THE CLOUDS OVER THE REGION. SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS HYR THIS
MORNING. THERE MAY BE SOME MVFR CIGS AT THE INL/BRD SITES LATE
THIS AFTERNOON. BY TONIGHT...CIGS WILL BE MAINLY IFR WITH SOME
MVFR CIGS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  11  21   8 /  30  20  20  10
INL  16   5  19   0 /  30  30  20   0
BRD  20   9  20   8 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  25  12  23   8 /  80  20  10  10
ASX  25  16  24  13 /  80  60  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART







000
FXUS63 KDLH 160910
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS SNOWFALL OVER NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN LINGERING OVER AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UNTIL DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING. INCREASED PCPN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NW
WISCONSIN...AND ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FROM IRON TO
BAYFIELD COUNTIES.

AT 300 AM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WHICH WAS LIFTING TO THE ENE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE NORTHLAND WAS IN
THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY.
THERE WERE GUSTY NORTH TO NNW WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 30S IN NW WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE WAS LINGERING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

TODAY...THERE WILL BE LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BAND FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS WELL AS
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER NW WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW.
MOST OF THE SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD...TWIN PORTS...AND INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT THE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NW WISCONSIN AND THE FAR NE ARROWHEAD. THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST COULD SEE FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN NW ONTARIO DROPS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
GUSTY NORTH TO NNW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT LINGERING SNOW
OVER AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS MORE TRUE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DUE TO COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ARROWHEAD CAN EXPECT ABOUT
1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NW
WISCONSIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FROM IRON TO BAYFIELD COUNTIES IN
NW WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE WHERE TOTALS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES AREA FORECAST. LESSER
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN ASHLAND
AND NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE LONG DURATION PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES FOR NW WISCONSIN. THE HEAVIEST
RATES ARE LIKELY DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
EVALUATED THE AMOUNTS FORECASTED AND THE DURATION IT WILL TAKE TO
REACH THESE TOTALS...AND DECIDED LONG DURATION WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE THE MOST APPROPRIATE HEADLINES FOR THIS SITUATION.

THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH THE SNOW IN NW
WISCONSIN...ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VISIBILITY COULD
BE LOW IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...ABOUT HALF MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LOWS FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 10 IN THE
SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS HANDLE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS HAS THE MAIN LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN
LOW IN IOWA MONDAY NIGHT AND IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW THAN THE GFS. WITH THIS
FORECAST BEING 7 DAYS OUT...THERE WILL BE CHANCES SO WILL HAVE CHC
SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MID-WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE FORECAST IS EVOLVING MOSTLY AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE ONE
MAJOR EXCEPTION IS THAT A DRY SLOT HAS WORKED INTO NW
WISCONSIN..AND AS A RESULT OF LOSING DEEP LAYER ICE.. KHYR STILL
HAS LIQUID PRECIP DESPITE A SOUNDING THAT IS ENTIRELY BELOW
FREEZING. THE AIRMASS SHOULD GET SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO ALLOW KHYR
TO SWITCH OVER..BUT HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED
THERE. OTHERWISE..DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW BAND SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS..WHILE VERY SLOWLY COLLAPSING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING. THUS..A FEW MORE HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT KDLH. HOWEVER..SNOW HAS MOSTLY ENDED AT
KBRD/KHIB/KINL FOR THE TIME BEING..WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW AT KINL/KHIB AND
PERHAPS KDLH ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FORCING AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MINNESOTA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  11  21   8 /  30  20  20  10
INL  16   5  19   0 /  30  30  20   0
BRD  20   9  20   8 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  25  12  23   8 /  60  20  10  10
ASX  25  16  24  13 /  80  60  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ012-019>021-037-038.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001-006.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART








000
FXUS63 KDLH 160910
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST IS SNOWFALL OVER NW WISCONSIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SIGNIFICANT
PCPN LINGERING OVER AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH WEDNESDAY
UNTIL DRIER AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVE INTO THE REGION WEDNESDAY
EVENING. INCREASED PCPN AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS FOR NW
WISCONSIN...AND ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FROM IRON TO
BAYFIELD COUNTIES.

AT 300 AM...THERE WAS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ILLINOIS WHICH WAS LIFTING TO THE ENE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS OVER
NW ONTARIO AND GRADUALLY MOVING TO THE SOUTH. THE NORTHLAND WAS IN
THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE REGION YESTERDAY.
THERE WERE GUSTY NORTH TO NNW WINDS AND OVERCAST SKIES.
TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW 30S IN NW WISCONSIN TO THE MIDDLE
TO UPPER TEENS IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THERE WAS LINGERING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

TODAY...THERE WILL BE LINGERING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL OVER
THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA DUE TO THE DEFORMATION BAND FROM THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AS WELL AS
LAKE ENHANCEMENT OVER NW WISCONSIN DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW.
MOST OF THE SNOW OVER THE ARROWHEAD...TWIN PORTS...AND INTERSTATE
35 CORRIDOR SHOULD TAPER OFF BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING...BUT THE
SNOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NW WISCONSIN AND THE FAR NE ARROWHEAD. THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN FORECAST COULD SEE FLURRIES IN THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE COLD NORTHERLY FLOW AND AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND
POTENT SHORTWAVE IN NW ONTARIO DROPS INTO NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
GUSTY NORTH TO NNW WINDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS TODAY
WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT.

TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT LINGERING SNOW
OVER AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR AS MORE TRUE LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP DUE TO COLD NORTHERLY FLOW OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SHIFT SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE ARROWHEAD CAN EXPECT ABOUT
1 TO 3 INCHES TONIGHT. THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS IN NW
WISCONSIN WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR MOVE INTO THE REGION.

SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS FORECAST FROM IRON TO BAYFIELD COUNTIES IN
NW WISCONSIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GREATEST AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
OVER NORTHERN IRON COUNTY ALONG AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
GOGEBIC RANGE WHERE TOTALS OF 7 TO 10 INCHES AREA FORECAST. LESSER
AMOUNTS OF ABOUT 4 TO 7 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR NORTHERN ASHLAND
AND NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTIES. THIS WILL BE LONG DURATION PERIOD
OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES FOR NW WISCONSIN. THE HEAVIEST
RATES ARE LIKELY DURING THE WEE HOURS OF THE MORNING WEDNESDAY.
EVALUATED THE AMOUNTS FORECASTED AND THE DURATION IT WILL TAKE TO
REACH THESE TOTALS...AND DECIDED LONG DURATION WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES ARE THE MOST APPROPRIATE HEADLINES FOR THIS SITUATION.

THE WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG WITH THE SNOW IN NW
WISCONSIN...ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. VISIBILITY COULD
BE LOW IN THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS...ABOUT HALF MILE OR LESS AT
TIMES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST TUE DEC 16 2014

A RIDGE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES THE REGION
MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. ARCTIC AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BE THE COLDEST NIGHT OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD WITH LOWS FROM AROUND ZERO IN THE NORTH TO AROUND 10 IN THE
SOUTH. SKIES SHOULD BE GENERALLY PARTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE PERIOD
EXCEPT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WHEN A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION. WITH LITTLE MOISTURE...ONLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
BE SEEN ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS HANDLE THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY
DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS HAS THE MAIN LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THE ECMWF HAS THE MAIN
LOW IN IOWA MONDAY NIGHT AND IN SOUTHERN WISCONSIN BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD BRING MORE SNOW THAN THE GFS. WITH THIS
FORECAST BEING 7 DAYS OUT...THERE WILL BE CHANCES SO WILL HAVE CHC
SNOW IN FCST FOR NOW UNTIL BETTER AGREEMENT LATER IN THE WEEK.
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL MID-WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE FORECAST IS EVOLVING MOSTLY AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE ONE
MAJOR EXCEPTION IS THAT A DRY SLOT HAS WORKED INTO NW
WISCONSIN..AND AS A RESULT OF LOSING DEEP LAYER ICE.. KHYR STILL
HAS LIQUID PRECIP DESPITE A SOUNDING THAT IS ENTIRELY BELOW
FREEZING. THE AIRMASS SHOULD GET SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO ALLOW KHYR
TO SWITCH OVER..BUT HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED
THERE. OTHERWISE..DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW BAND SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS..WHILE VERY SLOWLY COLLAPSING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING. THUS..A FEW MORE HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT KDLH. HOWEVER..SNOW HAS MOSTLY ENDED AT
KBRD/KHIB/KINL FOR THE TIME BEING..WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW AT KINL/KHIB AND
PERHAPS KDLH ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FORCING AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MINNESOTA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  21  11  21   8 /  30  20  20  10
INL  16   5  19   0 /  30  30  20   0
BRD  20   9  20   8 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  25  12  23   8 /  60  20  10  10
ASX  25  16  24  13 /  80  60  50  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ012-019>021-037-038.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WIZ001-006.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR WIZ002.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...STEWART
AVIATION...STEWART







000
FXUS63 KDLH 160535 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1135 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

KDLH CORRELATION COEFFICIENT DATA CLEARLY SHOWS THE RAIN/SNOW
TRANSITION ZONE MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD..WITH THE
TRANSITION ZONE CENTERED FROM NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS TO THE WEST
SIDE OF OF DULUTH..TO THE NORTH SHORE AS OF 630 PM. WE DID
BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW HERE AT THE OFFICE..LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF ENHANCED DIABATIC COOLING WITH A
SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES AND PRECIP RATES..AND
THESE SMALL/TRANSIENT CHANGE AREAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALL EVENING
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC TRANSITION ZONE. PRECIP
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 6-8 PM ALONG MOST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND THE NORTH SHORE..BUT WILL LIKELY TAKE SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NW WISCONSIN WHERE THE LAYER OF WARM AIR
ALOFT IS STILL RATHER DEEP WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S.

ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME RATHER SLICK AND ICE COVERED WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE CHANGE OVER..AS THE COMBINATION OF WET
ROADS..WET/COMPACTED SNOW AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S ALL
ACT TO RESULT IN A LAYER OF COMPACTED ICE.

IMPORTANT NOTE: KDLH DIFFERENTIAL REFLECTIVITY (ZDR) DATA APPEARS
TO BE OUT OF CALIBRATION. WE WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO FIX THIS
UNTIL AFTER THE ONGOING PRECIP EVENT ENDS..SO USE KDLH ZDR DATA
WITH CAUTION UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION IS ALSO UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A CHALLENGING WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT ONGOING WITH DENSE FOG
FINALLY GETTING OUT OF HERE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
MAINLY DUE TO CONCERN OF SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW. TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING A BIT
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND AS OF 230 PM CST RAIN HAS ALREADY
CHANGING TO SNOW AT A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING ACROSS CASS AND ITASCA
COUNTIES. THIS FASTER TRANSITION TO COLDER TEMPS COULD LEAD TO AN
HOUR OR SO OF FREEZING/RAIN DRIZZLE BEFORE IT QUICKLY CHANGES TO
SNOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGH...0.75 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION. IF RAIN CHANGES
TO SNOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND EAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IT COULD LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

FOG LATE TODAY...WARM TEMPERATURES PLUS SNOW COVER HAS LEAD TO DENSE
FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING FINALLY ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS PERSISTED ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
DESPITE THE MODERATE RAINFALL AT TIMES...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z.

WINTRY MIX  TO SNOW THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A QUICK TRANSITION
FROM  RAIN...TO SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO START TO ACCUMULATE DESPITE THE WET
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. BY 6 PM CST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH
SHORE AND SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO
AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MODERATE
RAIN WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. IT MIGHT NOT
BE UNTIL MIDNIGHT THAT THE RAIN SNOW LINE REACHES PRICE COUNTY...BUT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AM FAIRLY CONFIDENCE IT
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THERE BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. NORTHERLY
WINDS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE...WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE
PAST FEW FORECAST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM THE TWIN PORTS UP THROUGH
THE ARROWHEAD REGION...1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SNOWFALL
WILL END EARLY IN THE MORNING IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LINGER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND ELSEWHERE SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE LINGERING UPPER LOW WOBBLES OVER
THE REGION...KEEPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
LIGHTER SNOWS GOING OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE VICINITY OF
AN INVERTED TROUGH.  ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY MINOR
AT THIS TIME...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE LAKE
EFFECT REGIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE.  CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...WE SHOULD FINALLY LOSE SOME CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL OFF INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER
AND CLEARING SKIES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR COLDER YET IF WE
ACTUALLY DO CLEAR...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE JUST TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION.

LONG TERM FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY IS PRETTY
QUIET...THOUGH SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES COMPLICATE THINGS.  WE
ARE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH SOME RIPPLES THAT COME
THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...BUT WHILE I EXPECT US TO CLOUD UP AGAIN...BETTER LIFT
SHOULD BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF US...WITH LITTLE TO PRODUCE PRECIP FOR
THE CWA.   MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY...POSSIBLY PUTTING SOME SNOW DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
JUST A FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS.  WE ARE GETTING OUT INTO A LOW
CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME THOUGH...AND AM ONLY CARRYING SOME SMALL POPS
AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE FORECAST IS EVOLVING MOSTLY AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE ONE
MAJOR EXCEPTION IS THAT A DRY SLOT HAS WORKED INTO NW
WISCONSIN..AND AS A RESULT OF LOSING DEEP LAYER ICE.. KHYR STILL
HAS LIQUID PRECIP DESPITE A SOUNDING THAT IS ENTIRELY BELOW
FREEZING. THE AIRMASS SHOULD GET SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO ALLOW KHYR
TO SWITCH OVER..BUT HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED
THERE. OTHERWISE..DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW BAND SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS..WHILE VERY SLOWLY COLLAPSING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING. THUS..A FEW MORE HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT KDLH. HOWEVER..SNOW HAS MOSTLY ENDED AT
KBRD/KHIB/KINL FOR THE TIME BEING..WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW AT KINL/KHIB AND
PERHAPS KDLH ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FORCING AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MINNESOTA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  20  11  20 / 100  20  10  10
INL  11  15   7  17 /  20  30  20  10
BRD  15  19  10  19 /  80  10  10  10
HYR  25  25  13  21 / 100  50  20  20
ASX  24  25  18  23 / 100  70  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-
     019>021-035>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-
     018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$









000
FXUS63 KDLH 160535 AAC
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1135 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW FOR 06Z TAF ISSUANCE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 648 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

KDLH CORRELATION COEFFICIENT DATA CLEARLY SHOWS THE RAIN/SNOW
TRANSITION ZONE MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD..WITH THE
TRANSITION ZONE CENTERED FROM NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS TO THE WEST
SIDE OF OF DULUTH..TO THE NORTH SHORE AS OF 630 PM. WE DID
BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW HERE AT THE OFFICE..LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF ENHANCED DIABATIC COOLING WITH A
SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES AND PRECIP RATES..AND
THESE SMALL/TRANSIENT CHANGE AREAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALL EVENING
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC TRANSITION ZONE. PRECIP
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 6-8 PM ALONG MOST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND THE NORTH SHORE..BUT WILL LIKELY TAKE SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NW WISCONSIN WHERE THE LAYER OF WARM AIR
ALOFT IS STILL RATHER DEEP WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S.

ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME RATHER SLICK AND ICE COVERED WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE CHANGE OVER..AS THE COMBINATION OF WET
ROADS..WET/COMPACTED SNOW AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S ALL
ACT TO RESULT IN A LAYER OF COMPACTED ICE.

IMPORTANT NOTE: KDLH DIFFERENTIAL REFLECTIVITY (ZDR) DATA APPEARS
TO BE OUT OF CALIBRATION. WE WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO FIX THIS
UNTIL AFTER THE ONGOING PRECIP EVENT ENDS..SO USE KDLH ZDR DATA
WITH CAUTION UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION IS ALSO UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A CHALLENGING WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT ONGOING WITH DENSE FOG
FINALLY GETTING OUT OF HERE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
MAINLY DUE TO CONCERN OF SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW. TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING A BIT
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND AS OF 230 PM CST RAIN HAS ALREADY
CHANGING TO SNOW AT A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING ACROSS CASS AND ITASCA
COUNTIES. THIS FASTER TRANSITION TO COLDER TEMPS COULD LEAD TO AN
HOUR OR SO OF FREEZING/RAIN DRIZZLE BEFORE IT QUICKLY CHANGES TO
SNOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGH...0.75 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION. IF RAIN CHANGES
TO SNOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND EAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IT COULD LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

FOG LATE TODAY...WARM TEMPERATURES PLUS SNOW COVER HAS LEAD TO DENSE
FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING FINALLY ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS PERSISTED ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
DESPITE THE MODERATE RAINFALL AT TIMES...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z.

WINTRY MIX  TO SNOW THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A QUICK TRANSITION
FROM  RAIN...TO SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO START TO ACCUMULATE DESPITE THE WET
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. BY 6 PM CST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH
SHORE AND SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO
AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MODERATE
RAIN WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. IT MIGHT NOT
BE UNTIL MIDNIGHT THAT THE RAIN SNOW LINE REACHES PRICE COUNTY...BUT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AM FAIRLY CONFIDENCE IT
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THERE BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. NORTHERLY
WINDS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE...WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE
PAST FEW FORECAST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM THE TWIN PORTS UP THROUGH
THE ARROWHEAD REGION...1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SNOWFALL
WILL END EARLY IN THE MORNING IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LINGER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND ELSEWHERE SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE LINGERING UPPER LOW WOBBLES OVER
THE REGION...KEEPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
LIGHTER SNOWS GOING OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE VICINITY OF
AN INVERTED TROUGH.  ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY MINOR
AT THIS TIME...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE LAKE
EFFECT REGIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE.  CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...WE SHOULD FINALLY LOSE SOME CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL OFF INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER
AND CLEARING SKIES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR COLDER YET IF WE
ACTUALLY DO CLEAR...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE JUST TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION.

LONG TERM FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY IS PRETTY
QUIET...THOUGH SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES COMPLICATE THINGS.  WE
ARE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH SOME RIPPLES THAT COME
THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...BUT WHILE I EXPECT US TO CLOUD UP AGAIN...BETTER LIFT
SHOULD BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF US...WITH LITTLE TO PRODUCE PRECIP FOR
THE CWA.   MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY...POSSIBLY PUTTING SOME SNOW DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
JUST A FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS.  WE ARE GETTING OUT INTO A LOW
CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME THOUGH...AND AM ONLY CARRYING SOME SMALL POPS
AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE FORECAST IS EVOLVING MOSTLY AS EXPECTED THIS EVENING. THE ONE
MAJOR EXCEPTION IS THAT A DRY SLOT HAS WORKED INTO NW
WISCONSIN..AND AS A RESULT OF LOSING DEEP LAYER ICE.. KHYR STILL
HAS LIQUID PRECIP DESPITE A SOUNDING THAT IS ENTIRELY BELOW
FREEZING. THE AIRMASS SHOULD GET SUFFICIENTLY COLD TO ALLOW KHYR
TO SWITCH OVER..BUT HEAVIER SNOWFALL RATES ARE NO LONGER EXPECTED
THERE. OTHERWISE..DEFORMATION ZONE SNOW BAND SHOULD REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS..WHILE VERY SLOWLY COLLAPSING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND WEAKENING. THUS..A FEW MORE HOURS OF IFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED AT KDLH. HOWEVER..SNOW HAS MOSTLY ENDED AT
KBRD/KHIB/KINL FOR THE TIME BEING..WITH VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN
MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH GUSTY N/NW WINDS. SOME
LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR A FEW HOURS TOMORROW AT KINL/KHIB AND
PERHAPS KDLH ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK FORCING AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS
SOUTHWARD INTO NRN MINNESOTA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  20  11  20 / 100  20  10  10
INL  11  15   7  17 /  20  30  20  10
BRD  15  19  10  19 /  80  10  10  10
HYR  25  25  13  21 / 100  50  20  20
ASX  24  25  18  23 / 100  70  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-
     019>021-035>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-
     018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CST TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$










000
FXUS63 KDLH 160048 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
648 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

KDLH CORRELATION COEFFICIENT DATA CLEARLY SHOWS THE RAIN/SNOW
TRANSITION ZONE MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD..WITH THE
TRANSITION ZONE CENTERED FROM NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS TO THE WEST
SIDE OF OF DULUTH..TO THE NORTH SHORE AS OF 630 PM. WE DID
BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW HERE AT THE OFFICE..LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF ENHANCED DIABATIC COOLING WITH A
SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES AND PRECIP RATES..AND
THESE SMALL/TRANSIENT CHANGE AREAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALL EVENING
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC TRANSITION ZONE. PRECIP
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 6-8 PM ALONG MOST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND THE NORTH SHORE..BUT WILL LIKELY TAKE SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NW WISCONSIN WHERE THE LAYER OF WARM AIR
ALOFT IS STILL RATHER DEEP WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S.

ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME RATHER SLICK AND ICE COVERED WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE CHANGE OVER..AS THE COMBINATION OF WET
ROADS..WET/COMPACTED SNOW AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S ALL
ACT TO RESULT IN A LAYER OF COMPACTED ICE.

IMPORTANT NOTE: KDLH DIFFERENTIAL REFLECTIVITY (ZDR) DATA APPEARS
TO BE OUT OF CALIBRATION. WE WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO FIX THIS
UNTIL AFTER THE ONGOING PRECIP EVENT ENDS..SO USE KDLH ZDR DATA
WITH CAUTION UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION IS ALSO UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A CHALLENGING WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT ONGOING WITH DENSE FOG
FINALLY GETTING OUT OF HERE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
MAINLY DUE TO CONCERN OF SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW. TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING A BIT
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND AS OF 230 PM CST RAIN HAS ALREADY
CHANGING TO SNOW AT A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING ACROSS CASS AND ITASCA
COUNTIES. THIS FASTER TRANSITION TO COLDER TEMPS COULD LEAD TO AN
HOUR OR SO OF FREEZING/RAIN DRIZZLE BEFORE IT QUICKLY CHANGES TO
SNOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGH...0.75 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION. IF RAIN CHANGES
TO SNOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND EAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IT COULD LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

FOG LATE TODAY...WARM TEMPERATURES PLUS SNOW COVER HAS LEAD TO DENSE
FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING FINALLY ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS PERSISTED ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
DESPITE THE MODERATE RAINFALL AT TIMES...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z.

WINTRY MIX  TO SNOW THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A QUICK TRANSITION
FROM  RAIN...TO SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO START TO ACCUMULATE DESPITE THE WET
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. BY 6 PM CST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH
SHORE AND SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO
AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MODERATE
RAIN WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. IT MIGHT NOT
BE UNTIL MIDNIGHT THAT THE RAIN SNOW LINE REACHES PRICE COUNTY...BUT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AM FAIRLY CONFIDENCE IT
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THERE BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. NORTHERLY
WINDS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE...WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE
PAST FEW FORECAST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM THE TWIN PORTS UP THROUGH
THE ARROWHEAD REGION...1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SNOWFALL
WILL END EARLY IN THE MORNING IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LINGER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND ELSEWHERE SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE LINGERING UPPER LOW WOBBLES OVER
THE REGION...KEEPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
LIGHTER SNOWS GOING OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE VICINITY OF
AN INVERTED TROUGH.  ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY MINOR
AT THIS TIME...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE LAKE
EFFECT REGIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE.  CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...WE SHOULD FINALLY LOSE SOME CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL OFF INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER
AND CLEARING SKIES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR COLDER YET IF WE
ACTUALLY DO CLEAR...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE JUST TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION.

LONG TERM FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY IS PRETTY
QUIET...THOUGH SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES COMPLICATE THINGS.  WE
ARE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH SOME RIPPLES THAT COME
THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...BUT WHILE I EXPECT US TO CLOUD UP AGAIN...BETTER LIFT
SHOULD BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF US...WITH LITTLE TO PRODUCE PRECIP FOR
THE CWA.   MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY...POSSIBLY PUTTING SOME SNOW DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
JUST A FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS.  WE ARE GETTING OUT INTO A LOW
CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME THOUGH...AND AM ONLY CARRYING SOME SMALL POPS
AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

PRECIP IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AT KDLH..
AND EXPECTED TRANSITION TIME IN KHYR IS 04-05Z. OTHERWISE
KBRD/KINL/KHIB WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW FOR THE DURATION OF THIS
EVENT. A SHORT PERIOD OF HALF MILE VISIBILITIES IN MODERATE SNOW
WITH LARGE AGGREGATE FLAKES IS EXPECTED IN KDLH/KHYR DURING THE
FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THIS ISSUANCE. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15G20-25KT DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS..WITH PEAK OF
GUSTINESS EXPECTED ROUGHLY 06-12Z TIME FRAME..ESPECIALLY IN
KDLH/KHIB/KBRD. BREAK IN PRECIP AND DECREASE IN THE WINDS..ALONG
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE MORNING..BEFORE
MORE LIGHT SNOW REDEVELOPS LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO..MAINLY
AFFECTING KINL/KHIB/KDLH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  20  11  20 /  90  10  10  10
INL  11  15   7  17 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  15  19  10  19 /  60  10  10  10
HYR  25  25  13  21 / 100  40  20  20
ASX  24  25  18  23 / 100  70  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-
     019>021-035>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-
     018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...MILLER







000
FXUS63 KDLH 160048 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
648 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 648 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

KDLH CORRELATION COEFFICIENT DATA CLEARLY SHOWS THE RAIN/SNOW
TRANSITION ZONE MOVING SLOWLY BUT STEADILY SOUTHEASTWARD..WITH THE
TRANSITION ZONE CENTERED FROM NEAR LAKE MILLE LACS TO THE WEST
SIDE OF OF DULUTH..TO THE NORTH SHORE AS OF 630 PM. WE DID
BRIEFLY CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW HERE AT THE OFFICE..LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF ENHANCED DIABATIC COOLING WITH A
SMALL AREA OF ENHANCED HIGHER REFLECTIVITIES AND PRECIP RATES..AND
THESE SMALL/TRANSIENT CHANGE AREAS WILL LIKELY PERSIST ALL EVENING
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC TRANSITION ZONE. PRECIP
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BETWEEN 6-8 PM ALONG MOST OF THE I-35
CORRIDOR AND THE NORTH SHORE..BUT WILL LIKELY TAKE SEVERAL MORE
HOURS ACROSS MUCH OF NW WISCONSIN WHERE THE LAYER OF WARM AIR
ALOFT IS STILL RATHER DEEP WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S.

ROADS WILL LIKELY BECOME RATHER SLICK AND ICE COVERED WITHIN A
COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE CHANGE OVER..AS THE COMBINATION OF WET
ROADS..WET/COMPACTED SNOW AND TEMPS FALLING INTO THE UPPER 20S ALL
ACT TO RESULT IN A LAYER OF COMPACTED ICE.

IMPORTANT NOTE: KDLH DIFFERENTIAL REFLECTIVITY (ZDR) DATA APPEARS
TO BE OUT OF CALIBRATION. WE WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE TO FIX THIS
UNTIL AFTER THE ONGOING PRECIP EVENT ENDS..SO USE KDLH ZDR DATA
WITH CAUTION UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

AVIATION DISCUSSION IS ALSO UPDATED BELOW FOR THE 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A CHALLENGING WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT ONGOING WITH DENSE FOG
FINALLY GETTING OUT OF HERE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
MAINLY DUE TO CONCERN OF SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW. TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING A BIT
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND AS OF 230 PM CST RAIN HAS ALREADY
CHANGING TO SNOW AT A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING ACROSS CASS AND ITASCA
COUNTIES. THIS FASTER TRANSITION TO COLDER TEMPS COULD LEAD TO AN
HOUR OR SO OF FREEZING/RAIN DRIZZLE BEFORE IT QUICKLY CHANGES TO
SNOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGH...0.75 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION. IF RAIN CHANGES
TO SNOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND EAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IT COULD LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

FOG LATE TODAY...WARM TEMPERATURES PLUS SNOW COVER HAS LEAD TO DENSE
FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING FINALLY ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS PERSISTED ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
DESPITE THE MODERATE RAINFALL AT TIMES...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z.

WINTRY MIX  TO SNOW THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A QUICK TRANSITION
FROM  RAIN...TO SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO START TO ACCUMULATE DESPITE THE WET
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. BY 6 PM CST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH
SHORE AND SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO
AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MODERATE
RAIN WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. IT MIGHT NOT
BE UNTIL MIDNIGHT THAT THE RAIN SNOW LINE REACHES PRICE COUNTY...BUT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AM FAIRLY CONFIDENCE IT
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THERE BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. NORTHERLY
WINDS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE...WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE
PAST FEW FORECAST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM THE TWIN PORTS UP THROUGH
THE ARROWHEAD REGION...1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SNOWFALL
WILL END EARLY IN THE MORNING IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LINGER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND ELSEWHERE SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE LINGERING UPPER LOW WOBBLES OVER
THE REGION...KEEPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
LIGHTER SNOWS GOING OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE VICINITY OF
AN INVERTED TROUGH.  ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY MINOR
AT THIS TIME...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE LAKE
EFFECT REGIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE.  CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...WE SHOULD FINALLY LOSE SOME CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL OFF INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER
AND CLEARING SKIES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR COLDER YET IF WE
ACTUALLY DO CLEAR...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE JUST TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION.

LONG TERM FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY IS PRETTY
QUIET...THOUGH SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES COMPLICATE THINGS.  WE
ARE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH SOME RIPPLES THAT COME
THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...BUT WHILE I EXPECT US TO CLOUD UP AGAIN...BETTER LIFT
SHOULD BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF US...WITH LITTLE TO PRODUCE PRECIP FOR
THE CWA.   MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY...POSSIBLY PUTTING SOME SNOW DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
JUST A FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS.  WE ARE GETTING OUT INTO A LOW
CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME THOUGH...AND AM ONLY CARRYING SOME SMALL POPS
AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 648 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

PRECIP IS IN THE PROCESS OF TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW AT KDLH..
AND EXPECTED TRANSITION TIME IN KHYR IS 04-05Z. OTHERWISE
KBRD/KINL/KHIB WILL REMAIN ALL SNOW FOR THE DURATION OF THIS
EVENT. A SHORT PERIOD OF HALF MILE VISIBILITIES IN MODERATE SNOW
WITH LARGE AGGREGATE FLAKES IS EXPECTED IN KDLH/KHYR DURING THE
FIRST 6-9 HOURS OF THIS ISSUANCE. NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO 15G20-25KT DURING THE FIRST 6 HOURS..WITH PEAK OF
GUSTINESS EXPECTED ROUGHLY 06-12Z TIME FRAME..ESPECIALLY IN
KDLH/KHIB/KBRD. BREAK IN PRECIP AND DECREASE IN THE WINDS..ALONG
WITH IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUE MORNING..BEFORE
MORE LIGHT SNOW REDEVELOPS LATE MORNING EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
CLOSED LOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM NORTHWEST ONTARIO..MAINLY
AFFECTING KINL/KHIB/KDLH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  20  11  20 /  90  10  10  10
INL  11  15   7  17 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  15  19  10  19 /  60  10  10  10
HYR  25  25  13  21 / 100  40  20  20
ASX  24  25  18  23 / 100  70  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-
     019>021-035>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-
     018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MILLER
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...MILLER








000
FXUS63 KDLH 152148
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
348 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A CHALLENGING WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT ONGOING WITH DENSE FOG
FINALLY GETTING OUT OF HERE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
MAINLY DUE TO CONCERN OF SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW. TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING A BIT
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND AS OF 230 PM CST RAIN HAS ALREADY
CHANGING TO SNOW AT A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING ACROSS CASS AND ITASCA
COUNTIES. THIS FASTER TRANSITION TO COLDER TEMPS COULD LEAD TO AN
HOUR OR SO OF FREEZING/RAIN DRIZZLE BEFORE IT QUICKLY CHANGES TO
SNOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGH...0.75 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION. IF RAIN CHANGES
TO SNOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND EAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IT COULD LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

FOG LATE TODAY...WARM TEMPERATURES PLUS SNOW COVER HAS LEAD TO DENSE
FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING FINALLY ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS PERSISTED ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
DESPITE THE MODERATE RAINFALL AT TIMES...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z.

WINTRY MIX  TO SNOW THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A QUICK TRANSITION
FROM  RAIN...TO SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO START TO ACCUMULATE DESPITE THE WET
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. BY 6 PM CST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH
SHORE AND SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO
AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MODERATE
RAIN WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. IT MIGHT NOT
BE UNTIL MIDNIGHT THAT THE RAIN SNOW LINE REACHES PRICE COUNTY...BUT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AM FAIRLY CONFIDENCE IT
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THERE BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. NORTHERLY
WINDS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE...WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE
PAST FEW FORECAST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM THE TWIN PORTS UP THROUGH
THE ARROWHEAD REGION...1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SNOWFALL
WILL END EARLY IN THE MORNING IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LINGER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND ELSEWHERE SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE LINGERING UPPER LOW WOBBLES OVER
THE REGION...KEEPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
LIGHTER SNOWS GOING OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE VICINITY OF
AN INVERTED TROUGH.  ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY MINOR
AT THIS TIME...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE LAKE
EFFECT REGIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE.  CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...WE SHOULD FINALLY LOSE SOME CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL OFF INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER
AND CLEARING SKIES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR COLDER YET IF WE
ACTUALLY DO CLEAR...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE JUST TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION.

LONG TERM FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY IS PRETTY
QUIET...THOUGH SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES COMPLICATE THINGS.  WE
ARE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH SOME RIPPLES THAT COME
THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...BUT WHILE I EXPECT US TO CLOUD UP AGAIN...BETTER LIFT
SHOULD BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF US...WITH LITTLE TO PRODUCE PRECIP FOR
THE CWA.   MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY...POSSIBLY PUTTING SOME SNOW DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
JUST A FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS.  WE ARE GETTING OUT INTO A LOW
CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME THOUGH...AND AM ONLY CARRYING SOME SMALL POPS
AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES...A CHANGE-OVER FROM RAIN/
DRIZZLE AND FOG TO SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
CIELINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO BE LOWEST...RANGING FROM LIFR TO IFR.
VISBILITIES TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO IFR OR EVEN MVFR RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH PRECIPITATION STILL RAIN. HOWEVER...AS
PRECIPITATION TURNS TO SNOW VISIBILITIES TO DROP BACK TO IFR FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. AFTER SNOW ENDS TONIGHT
VISIBILITIES TO RETURN TO VFR. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR TO LIFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  20  11  20 /  90  10  10  10
INL  11  15   7  17 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  15  19  10  19 /  60  10  10  10
HYR  25  25  13  21 / 100  40  20  20
ASX  24  25  18  23 / 100  70  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-
     019>021-035>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-
     018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 152148
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
348 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A CHALLENGING WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT ONGOING WITH DENSE FOG
FINALLY GETTING OUT OF HERE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
MAINLY DUE TO CONCERN OF SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW. TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING A BIT
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND AS OF 230 PM CST RAIN HAS ALREADY
CHANGING TO SNOW AT A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING ACROSS CASS AND ITASCA
COUNTIES. THIS FASTER TRANSITION TO COLDER TEMPS COULD LEAD TO AN
HOUR OR SO OF FREEZING/RAIN DRIZZLE BEFORE IT QUICKLY CHANGES TO
SNOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGH...0.75 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION. IF RAIN CHANGES
TO SNOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND EAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IT COULD LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

FOG LATE TODAY...WARM TEMPERATURES PLUS SNOW COVER HAS LEAD TO DENSE
FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING FINALLY ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS PERSISTED ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
DESPITE THE MODERATE RAINFALL AT TIMES...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z.

WINTRY MIX  TO SNOW THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A QUICK TRANSITION
FROM  RAIN...TO SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO START TO ACCUMULATE DESPITE THE WET
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. BY 6 PM CST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH
SHORE AND SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO
AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MODERATE
RAIN WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. IT MIGHT NOT
BE UNTIL MIDNIGHT THAT THE RAIN SNOW LINE REACHES PRICE COUNTY...BUT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AM FAIRLY CONFIDENCE IT
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THERE BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. NORTHERLY
WINDS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE...WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE
PAST FEW FORECAST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM THE TWIN PORTS UP THROUGH
THE ARROWHEAD REGION...1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SNOWFALL
WILL END EARLY IN THE MORNING IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LINGER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND ELSEWHERE SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE LINGERING UPPER LOW WOBBLES OVER
THE REGION...KEEPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
LIGHTER SNOWS GOING OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE VICINITY OF
AN INVERTED TROUGH.  ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY MINOR
AT THIS TIME...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE LAKE
EFFECT REGIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE.  CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...WE SHOULD FINALLY LOSE SOME CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL OFF INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER
AND CLEARING SKIES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR COLDER YET IF WE
ACTUALLY DO CLEAR...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE JUST TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION.

LONG TERM FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY IS PRETTY
QUIET...THOUGH SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES COMPLICATE THINGS.  WE
ARE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH SOME RIPPLES THAT COME
THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...BUT WHILE I EXPECT US TO CLOUD UP AGAIN...BETTER LIFT
SHOULD BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF US...WITH LITTLE TO PRODUCE PRECIP FOR
THE CWA.   MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY...POSSIBLY PUTTING SOME SNOW DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
JUST A FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS.  WE ARE GETTING OUT INTO A LOW
CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME THOUGH...AND AM ONLY CARRYING SOME SMALL POPS
AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES...A CHANGE-OVER FROM RAIN/
DRIZZLE AND FOG TO SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
CIELINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO BE LOWEST...RANGING FROM LIFR TO IFR.
VISBILITIES TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO IFR OR EVEN MVFR RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH PRECIPITATION STILL RAIN. HOWEVER...AS
PRECIPITATION TURNS TO SNOW VISIBILITIES TO DROP BACK TO IFR FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. AFTER SNOW ENDS TONIGHT
VISIBILITIES TO RETURN TO VFR. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR TO LIFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  20  11  20 /  90  10  10  10
INL  11  15   7  17 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  15  19  10  19 /  60  10  10  10
HYR  25  25  13  21 / 100  40  20  20
ASX  24  25  18  23 / 100  70  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-
     019>021-035>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-
     018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 152148
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
348 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A CHALLENGING WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT ONGOING WITH DENSE FOG
FINALLY GETTING OUT OF HERE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
MAINLY DUE TO CONCERN OF SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW. TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING A BIT
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND AS OF 230 PM CST RAIN HAS ALREADY
CHANGING TO SNOW AT A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING ACROSS CASS AND ITASCA
COUNTIES. THIS FASTER TRANSITION TO COLDER TEMPS COULD LEAD TO AN
HOUR OR SO OF FREEZING/RAIN DRIZZLE BEFORE IT QUICKLY CHANGES TO
SNOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGH...0.75 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION. IF RAIN CHANGES
TO SNOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND EAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IT COULD LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

FOG LATE TODAY...WARM TEMPERATURES PLUS SNOW COVER HAS LEAD TO DENSE
FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING FINALLY ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS PERSISTED ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
DESPITE THE MODERATE RAINFALL AT TIMES...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z.

WINTRY MIX  TO SNOW THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A QUICK TRANSITION
FROM  RAIN...TO SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO START TO ACCUMULATE DESPITE THE WET
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. BY 6 PM CST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH
SHORE AND SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO
AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MODERATE
RAIN WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. IT MIGHT NOT
BE UNTIL MIDNIGHT THAT THE RAIN SNOW LINE REACHES PRICE COUNTY...BUT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AM FAIRLY CONFIDENCE IT
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THERE BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. NORTHERLY
WINDS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE...WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE
PAST FEW FORECAST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM THE TWIN PORTS UP THROUGH
THE ARROWHEAD REGION...1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SNOWFALL
WILL END EARLY IN THE MORNING IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LINGER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND ELSEWHERE SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE LINGERING UPPER LOW WOBBLES OVER
THE REGION...KEEPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
LIGHTER SNOWS GOING OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE VICINITY OF
AN INVERTED TROUGH.  ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY MINOR
AT THIS TIME...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE LAKE
EFFECT REGIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE.  CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...WE SHOULD FINALLY LOSE SOME CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL OFF INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER
AND CLEARING SKIES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR COLDER YET IF WE
ACTUALLY DO CLEAR...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE JUST TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION.

LONG TERM FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY IS PRETTY
QUIET...THOUGH SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES COMPLICATE THINGS.  WE
ARE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH SOME RIPPLES THAT COME
THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...BUT WHILE I EXPECT US TO CLOUD UP AGAIN...BETTER LIFT
SHOULD BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF US...WITH LITTLE TO PRODUCE PRECIP FOR
THE CWA.   MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY...POSSIBLY PUTTING SOME SNOW DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
JUST A FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS.  WE ARE GETTING OUT INTO A LOW
CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME THOUGH...AND AM ONLY CARRYING SOME SMALL POPS
AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES...A CHANGE-OVER FROM RAIN/
DRIZZLE AND FOG TO SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
CIELINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO BE LOWEST...RANGING FROM LIFR TO IFR.
VISBILITIES TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO IFR OR EVEN MVFR RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH PRECIPITATION STILL RAIN. HOWEVER...AS
PRECIPITATION TURNS TO SNOW VISIBILITIES TO DROP BACK TO IFR FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. AFTER SNOW ENDS TONIGHT
VISIBILITIES TO RETURN TO VFR. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR TO LIFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  20  11  20 /  90  10  10  10
INL  11  15   7  17 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  15  19  10  19 /  60  10  10  10
HYR  25  25  13  21 / 100  40  20  20
ASX  24  25  18  23 / 100  70  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-
     019>021-035>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-
     018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 152148
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
348 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A CHALLENGING WINTRY PRECIPITATION EVENT ONGOING WITH DENSE FOG
FINALLY GETTING OUT OF HERE. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES IN EFFECT
MAINLY DUE TO CONCERN OF SLEET MIXING IN WITH SNOW. TEMPERATURES
FINALLY RETURN TO MORE SEASONABLE LEVELS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN FROM
THE NORTH.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN DROPPING A BIT
FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED AND AS OF 230 PM CST RAIN HAS ALREADY
CHANGING TO SNOW AT A FEW LOCATIONS INCLUDING ACROSS CASS AND ITASCA
COUNTIES. THIS FASTER TRANSITION TO COLDER TEMPS COULD LEAD TO AN
HOUR OR SO OF FREEZING/RAIN DRIZZLE BEFORE IT QUICKLY CHANGES TO
SNOW. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE HIGH...0.75 INCHES WHICH IS ABOUT
3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE REGION. IF RAIN CHANGES
TO SNOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND EAST INTO NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST IT COULD LEAD TO HIGHER
THAN EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

FOG LATE TODAY...WARM TEMPERATURES PLUS SNOW COVER HAS LEAD TO DENSE
FOG FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH CLEARING FINALLY ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN MINNESOTA AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR HAS MADE ITS WAY FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH. DENSE FOG HAS PERSISTED ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
DESPITE THE MODERATE RAINFALL AT TIMES...SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 00Z.

WINTRY MIX  TO SNOW THIS EVENING...EXPECTING A QUICK TRANSITION
FROM  RAIN...TO SLEET...AND FINALLY SNOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
SNOWFALL WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO START TO ACCUMULATE DESPITE THE WET
AND ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE. BY 6 PM CST
PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALL LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH
SHORE AND SOUTH THROUGH THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR AND WEST TO
AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION. IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN MODERATE
RAIN WILL TRANSITION QUICKLY TO SLEET AND FINALLY SNOW. IT MIGHT NOT
BE UNTIL MIDNIGHT THAT THE RAIN SNOW LINE REACHES PRICE COUNTY...BUT
BASED ON OBSERVATIONS SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON AM FAIRLY CONFIDENCE IT
WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THERE BEFORE PRECIPITATION ENDS. NORTHERLY
WINDS ALONG LAKE SUPERIOR WILL LEAD TO SOME LAKE ENHANCEMENT ALONG
THE SOUTH SHORE...WHICH WILL LAST INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE ABOUT THE SAME AS THEY HAVE BEEN FOR THE
PAST FEW FORECAST WITH 2 TO 3 INCHES FROM THE TWIN PORTS UP THROUGH
THE ARROWHEAD REGION...1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS INTERIOR NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...AND 2 TO 4 INCHES ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO THE LOW TO MID TEENS IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA...AND INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

TUESDAY...AS AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION SNOWFALL
WILL END EARLY IN THE MORNING IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA AND LINGER INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. LAKE EFFECT SNOWFALL
IN NORTHERN IRON/ASHLAND COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND ELSEWHERE SCATTERED FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE. SKIES WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGHOUT THE DAY KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS TO MID 20S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CST MON DEC 15 2014

TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY THE LINGERING UPPER LOW WOBBLES OVER
THE REGION...KEEPING LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
LIGHTER SNOWS GOING OVER FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA IN THE VICINITY OF
AN INVERTED TROUGH.  ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS LOOK FAIRLY MINOR
AT THIS TIME...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN INCH OR TWO OVER THE LAKE
EFFECT REGIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND LESS THAN AN INCH
ELSEWHERE.  CLOUDS TO KEEP TEMPERATURES MODERATED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  HOWEVER...WE SHOULD FINALLY LOSE SOME CLOUD COVER
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND/OR THURSDAY...ALLOWING TEMPS TO FALL OFF INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER
AND CLEARING SKIES. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR COLDER YET IF WE
ACTUALLY DO CLEAR...BUT GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY HAVE JUST TRENDED THAT
DIRECTION.

LONG TERM FORECAST FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY IS PRETTY
QUIET...THOUGH SPLIT UPPER LEVEL FLOW DOES COMPLICATE THINGS.  WE
ARE MAINLY IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WITH SOME RIPPLES THAT COME
THROUGH DURING THE PERIOD.  A SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
AND SATURDAY...BUT WHILE I EXPECT US TO CLOUD UP AGAIN...BETTER LIFT
SHOULD BE NORTH AND SOUTH OF US...WITH LITTLE TO PRODUCE PRECIP FOR
THE CWA.   MODELS ARE HINTING AT A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA MONDAY...POSSIBLY PUTTING SOME SNOW DOWN ACROSS THE AREA
JUST A FEW DAYS BEFORE CHRISTMAS.  WE ARE GETTING OUT INTO A LOW
CONFIDENCE TIME FRAME THOUGH...AND AM ONLY CARRYING SOME SMALL POPS
AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS FEATURE AS IT COULD HAVE SOME TRAVEL
IMPACTS IN THE DAYS LEADING UP TO THE HOLIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES...A CHANGE-OVER FROM RAIN/
DRIZZLE AND FOG TO SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
CIELINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO BE LOWEST...RANGING FROM LIFR TO IFR.
VISBILITIES TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO IFR OR EVEN MVFR RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH PRECIPITATION STILL RAIN. HOWEVER...AS
PRECIPITATION TURNS TO SNOW VISIBILITIES TO DROP BACK TO IFR FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. AFTER SNOW ENDS TONIGHT
VISIBILITIES TO RETURN TO VFR. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR TO LIFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  19  20  11  20 /  90  10  10  10
INL  11  15   7  17 /  10  20  20  10
BRD  15  19  10  19 /  60  10  10  10
HYR  25  25  13  21 / 100  40  20  20
ASX  24  25  18  23 / 100  70  50  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-
     019>021-035>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-
     018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 151752
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1152 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN UNTIL 00Z /6PM
CST/ IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. SREF/NAM VISIBILITY GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST
OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SOCKED UNTIL THE SECOND MORE WIDESPREAD
ROUND OF RAINFALL BEGINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY IF RAIN ARRIVES
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...BUT OTHERWISE THE DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY APPEARED TO BE ON TRACK. MAY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO ADD RAIN INTO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WHERE THE FORECAST PREVIOUSLY JUST HAD DRIZZLE...BUT OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING LOOKED GOOD. PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX /MAINLY SLEET/
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 533 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE IN THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST IT HAS IMPROVED ENOUGH TO LET THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FROM KOOCHICHING COUNTY SOUTH TO ITASCA AND CROW WING
COUNTIES EXPIRE EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO TODAY. ITS COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING FRONT. THERE WILL GRADUALLY BE A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD FREEZING RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE RAP13 AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING
RAIN IS A NEGLIGIBLE THREAT. THE RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THEREFORE...ONLY VERY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

MEANWHILE...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT WILL
BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO OVER
0.75 INCHES OVER NW WISCONSIN. PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW INTO THIS
EVENING. PARTS OF FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN CAN
EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES MIGHT BE ROBUST AT
TIMES...BUT MELTING WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
UNTIL SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF UP TO 30 MPH...WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE COULD BE LOW VISIBILITY IN THE STRONGER WINDS AND
LINGERING FALLING SNOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CANADA WILL DROP TO NW ONTARIO BY LATE
TONIGHT. SNOW FLURRIES COULD LINGER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST
INTO NW WISCONSIN...BUT LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE SLEET IN NW
WISCONSIN. ALSO...THE SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING STRONG UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
THE NEED FOR EXPANDING THE ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF CANADA AND DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H50
LOW AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A
CORE OF H85 TEMPS AROUND -15 C ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR THE SNOW BELT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS OR
FLURRIES DURING THIS TIME AS H50 TEMPS OF -30 C WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUES NIGHT/WED
OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS PWAT
VALUES DROP BELOW 0.2". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD WHERE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHER
PWATS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE INTO WED
MORNING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS...WHEN WILL THE NORTHLAND SEE THE SUN? AT THIS
TIME...THE SHORT WAVE/MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE OUT OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLEARING IS HIGHEST FOR THE BORDERLAND/NRN ZONES THURSDAY AS MODELS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS APPROACHING CLIPPER
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN FLOW AND MAY BRING MORE MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO
THE FORECAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY THAN EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES...A CHANGE-OVER FROM RAIN/
DRIZZLE AND FOG TO SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
CIELINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO BE LOWEST...RANGING FROM LIFR TO IFR.
VISBILITIES TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO IFR OR EVEN MVFR RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH PRECIPITATION STILL RAIN. HOWEVER...AS
PRECIPITATION TURNS TO SNOW VISIBILITIES TO DROP BACK TO IFR FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. AFTER SNOW ENDS TONIGHT
VISIBILITIES TO RETURN TO VFR. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR TO LIFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  17  21   9 /  70  80  10  10
INL  34  10  16   4 /  50  10  10  10
BRD  37  16  20   9 /  60  60  10  10
HYR  45  23  24  12 /  90  90  50  30
ASX  46  24  25  16 /  90  90  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-035>038.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-
     035>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-
     018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 151752
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1152 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN UNTIL 00Z /6PM
CST/ IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. SREF/NAM VISIBILITY GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST
OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SOCKED UNTIL THE SECOND MORE WIDESPREAD
ROUND OF RAINFALL BEGINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY IF RAIN ARRIVES
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...BUT OTHERWISE THE DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY APPEARED TO BE ON TRACK. MAY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO ADD RAIN INTO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WHERE THE FORECAST PREVIOUSLY JUST HAD DRIZZLE...BUT OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING LOOKED GOOD. PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX /MAINLY SLEET/
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 533 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE IN THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST IT HAS IMPROVED ENOUGH TO LET THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FROM KOOCHICHING COUNTY SOUTH TO ITASCA AND CROW WING
COUNTIES EXPIRE EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO TODAY. ITS COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING FRONT. THERE WILL GRADUALLY BE A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD FREEZING RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE RAP13 AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING
RAIN IS A NEGLIGIBLE THREAT. THE RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THEREFORE...ONLY VERY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

MEANWHILE...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT WILL
BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO OVER
0.75 INCHES OVER NW WISCONSIN. PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW INTO THIS
EVENING. PARTS OF FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN CAN
EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES MIGHT BE ROBUST AT
TIMES...BUT MELTING WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
UNTIL SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF UP TO 30 MPH...WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE COULD BE LOW VISIBILITY IN THE STRONGER WINDS AND
LINGERING FALLING SNOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CANADA WILL DROP TO NW ONTARIO BY LATE
TONIGHT. SNOW FLURRIES COULD LINGER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST
INTO NW WISCONSIN...BUT LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE SLEET IN NW
WISCONSIN. ALSO...THE SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING STRONG UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
THE NEED FOR EXPANDING THE ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF CANADA AND DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H50
LOW AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A
CORE OF H85 TEMPS AROUND -15 C ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR THE SNOW BELT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS OR
FLURRIES DURING THIS TIME AS H50 TEMPS OF -30 C WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUES NIGHT/WED
OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS PWAT
VALUES DROP BELOW 0.2". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD WHERE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHER
PWATS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE INTO WED
MORNING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS...WHEN WILL THE NORTHLAND SEE THE SUN? AT THIS
TIME...THE SHORT WAVE/MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE OUT OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLEARING IS HIGHEST FOR THE BORDERLAND/NRN ZONES THURSDAY AS MODELS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS APPROACHING CLIPPER
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN FLOW AND MAY BRING MORE MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO
THE FORECAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY THAN EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A COLD FRONT MOVING SLOWLY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 6
HOURS WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES...A CHANGE-OVER FROM RAIN/
DRIZZLE AND FOG TO SLEET AND THEN TO SNOW. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
CIELINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO BE LOWEST...RANGING FROM LIFR TO IFR.
VISBILITIES TO IMPROVE SLIGHTLY TO IFR OR EVEN MVFR RIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH PRECIPITATION STILL RAIN. HOWEVER...AS
PRECIPITATION TURNS TO SNOW VISIBILITIES TO DROP BACK TO IFR FOR A
FEW HOURS BEFORE THE SNOW ENDS. AFTER SNOW ENDS TONIGHT
VISIBILITIES TO RETURN TO VFR. CIGS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IFR TO LIFR
THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH SOME IMPROVEMENTS POSSIBLE AFTER 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  17  21   9 /  70  80  10  10
INL  34  10  16   4 /  50  10  10  10
BRD  37  16  20   9 /  60  60  10  10
HYR  45  23  24  12 /  90  90  50  30
ASX  46  24  25  16 /  90  90  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-035>038.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-
     035>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-
     018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 151627
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1027 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN UNTIL 00Z /6PM
CST/ IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. SREF/NAM VISIBILITY GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST
OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SOCKED UNTIL THE SECOND MORE WIDESPREAD
ROUND OF RAINFALL BEGINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY IF RAIN ARRIVES
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...BUT OTHERWISE THE DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY APPEARED TO BE ON TRACK. MAY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO ADD RAIN INTO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WHERE THE FORECAST PREVIOUSLY JUST HAD DRIZZLE...BUT OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING LOOKED GOOD. PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX /MAINLY SLEET/
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 533 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE IN THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST IT HAS IMPROVED ENOUGH TO LET THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FROM KOOCHICHING COUNTY SOUTH TO ITASCA AND CROW WING
COUNTIES EXPIRE EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO TODAY. ITS COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING FRONT. THERE WILL GRADUALLY BE A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD FREEZING RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE RAP13 AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING
RAIN IS A NEGLIGIBLE THREAT. THE RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THEREFORE...ONLY VERY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

MEANWHILE...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT WILL
BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO OVER
0.75 INCHES OVER NW WISCONSIN. PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW INTO THIS
EVENING. PARTS OF FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN CAN
EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES MIGHT BE ROBUST AT
TIMES...BUT MELTING WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
UNTIL SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF UP TO 30 MPH...WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE COULD BE LOW VISIBILITY IN THE STRONGER WINDS AND
LINGERING FALLING SNOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CANADA WILL DROP TO NW ONTARIO BY LATE
TONIGHT. SNOW FLURRIES COULD LINGER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST
INTO NW WISCONSIN...BUT LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE SLEET IN NW
WISCONSIN. ALSO...THE SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING STRONG UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
THE NEED FOR EXPANDING THE ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF CANADA AND DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H50
LOW AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A
CORE OF H85 TEMPS AROUND -15 C ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR THE SNOW BELT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS OR
FLURRIES DURING THIS TIME AS H50 TEMPS OF -30 C WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUES NIGHT/WED
OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS PWAT
VALUES DROP BELOW 0.2". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD WHERE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHER
PWATS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE INTO WED
MORNING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS...WHEN WILL THE NORTHLAND SEE THE SUN? AT THIS
TIME...THE SHORT WAVE/MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE OUT OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLEARING IS HIGHEST FOR THE BORDERLAND/NRN ZONES THURSDAY AS MODELS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS APPROACHING CLIPPER
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN FLOW AND MAY BRING MORE MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO
THE FORECAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY THAN EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG AND
RAIN WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE COLD AIR ADVANCES
EA SWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...THEN SWITCH TO ALL SNOW.
THE ICY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KBRD...KINL...AND KHIB BY
15Z...MOVING INTO THE KDLH AREA AFTER 20Z...AND REACHING KHYR
AFTER 00Z. THE WINTRY MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM KDLH TO KHYR. THE SNOW THIS EVENING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTS TO 30 KT AT TIMES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  17  21   9 /  70  80  10  10
INL  34  10  16   4 /  50  10  10  10
BRD  37  16  20   9 /  60  60  10  10
HYR  45  23  24  12 /  90  90  50  30
ASX  46  24  25  16 /  90  90  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-035>038.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-
     035>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-
     018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJM/GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 151627
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1027 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1026 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

EXTENDED DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTHWEST WISCONSIN UNTIL 00Z /6PM
CST/ IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES BASED ON LATEST
OBSERVATIONS AND GUIDANCE. SREF/NAM VISIBILITY GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST
OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN SOCKED UNTIL THE SECOND MORE WIDESPREAD
ROUND OF RAINFALL BEGINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON. SOME PORTIONS OF
THE ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED EARLY IF RAIN ARRIVES
EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...BUT OTHERWISE THE DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY APPEARED TO BE ON TRACK. MAY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO ADD RAIN INTO THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
WHERE THE FORECAST PREVIOUSLY JUST HAD DRIZZLE...BUT OTHERWISE
EVERYTHING LOOKED GOOD. PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX /MAINLY SLEET/
TRANSITION TO SNOW LATE TODAY.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 533 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE IN THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST IT HAS IMPROVED ENOUGH TO LET THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FROM KOOCHICHING COUNTY SOUTH TO ITASCA AND CROW WING
COUNTIES EXPIRE EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO TODAY. ITS COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING FRONT. THERE WILL GRADUALLY BE A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD FREEZING RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE RAP13 AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING
RAIN IS A NEGLIGIBLE THREAT. THE RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THEREFORE...ONLY VERY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

MEANWHILE...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT WILL
BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO OVER
0.75 INCHES OVER NW WISCONSIN. PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW INTO THIS
EVENING. PARTS OF FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN CAN
EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES MIGHT BE ROBUST AT
TIMES...BUT MELTING WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
UNTIL SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF UP TO 30 MPH...WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE COULD BE LOW VISIBILITY IN THE STRONGER WINDS AND
LINGERING FALLING SNOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CANADA WILL DROP TO NW ONTARIO BY LATE
TONIGHT. SNOW FLURRIES COULD LINGER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST
INTO NW WISCONSIN...BUT LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE SLEET IN NW
WISCONSIN. ALSO...THE SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING STRONG UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
THE NEED FOR EXPANDING THE ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF CANADA AND DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H50
LOW AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A
CORE OF H85 TEMPS AROUND -15 C ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR THE SNOW BELT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS OR
FLURRIES DURING THIS TIME AS H50 TEMPS OF -30 C WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUES NIGHT/WED
OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS PWAT
VALUES DROP BELOW 0.2". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD WHERE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHER
PWATS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE INTO WED
MORNING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS...WHEN WILL THE NORTHLAND SEE THE SUN? AT THIS
TIME...THE SHORT WAVE/MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE OUT OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLEARING IS HIGHEST FOR THE BORDERLAND/NRN ZONES THURSDAY AS MODELS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS APPROACHING CLIPPER
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN FLOW AND MAY BRING MORE MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO
THE FORECAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY THAN EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG AND
RAIN WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE COLD AIR ADVANCES
EA SWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...THEN SWITCH TO ALL SNOW.
THE ICY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KBRD...KINL...AND KHIB BY
15Z...MOVING INTO THE KDLH AREA AFTER 20Z...AND REACHING KHYR
AFTER 00Z. THE WINTRY MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM KDLH TO KHYR. THE SNOW THIS EVENING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTS TO 30 KT AT TIMES.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  43  17  21   9 /  70  80  10  10
INL  34  10  16   4 /  50  10  10  10
BRD  37  16  20   9 /  60  60  10  10
HYR  45  23  24  12 /  90  90  50  30
ASX  46  24  25  16 /  90  90  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-035>038.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-
     035>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-
     018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJM/GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 151155
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
555 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE IN THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST IT HAS IMPROVED ENOUGH TO LET THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FROM KOOCHICHING COUNTY SOUTH TO ITASCA AND CROW WING
COUNTIES EXPIRE EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO TODAY. ITS COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING FRONT. THERE WILL GRADUALLY BE A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD FREEZING RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE RAP13 AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING
RAIN IS A NEGLIGIBLE THREAT. THE RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THEREFORE...ONLY VERY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

MEANWHILE...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT WILL
BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO OVER
0.75 INCHES OVER NW WISCONSIN. PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW INTO THIS
EVENING. PARTS OF FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN CAN
EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES MIGHT BE ROBUST AT
TIMES...BUT MELTING WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
UNTIL SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF UP TO 30 MPH...WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE COULD BE LOW VISIBILITY IN THE STRONGER WINDS AND
LINGERING FALLING SNOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CANADA WILL DROP TO NW ONTARIO BY LATE
TONIGHT. SNOW FLURRIES COULD LINGER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST
INTO NW WISCONSIN...BUT LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE SLEET IN NW
WISCONSIN. ALSO...THE SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING STRONG UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
THE NEED FOR EXPANDING THE ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF CANADA AND DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H50
LOW AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A
CORE OF H85 TEMPS AROUND -15 C ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR THE SNOW BELT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS OR
FLURRIES DURING THIS TIME AS H50 TEMPS OF -30 C WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUES NIGHT/WED
OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS PWAT
VALUES DROP BELOW 0.2". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD WHERE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHER
PWATS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE INTO WED
MORNING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS...WHEN WILL THE NORTHLAND SEE THE SUN? AT THIS
TIME...THE SHORT WAVE/MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE OUT OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLEARING IS HIGHEST FOR THE BORDERLAND/NRN ZONES THURSDAY AS MODELS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS APPROACHING CLIPPER
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN FLOW AND MAY BRING MORE MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO
THE FORECAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY THAN EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG AND
RAIN WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE COLD AIR ADVANCES
EA SWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...THEN SWITCH TO ALL SNOW.
THE ICY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KBRD...KINL...AND KHIB BY
15Z...MOVING INTO THE KDLH AREA AFTER 20Z...AND REACHING KHYR
AFTER 00Z. THE WINTRY MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM KDLH TO KHYR. THE SNOW THIS EVENING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTS TO 30 KT AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  17  21   9 /  70  80  10  10
INL  34  10  16   4 /  50  10  10  10
BRD  37  16  20   9 /  60  60  10  10
HYR  45  23  24  12 /  90  90  50  30
ASX  45  24  25  16 /  90  90  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-035>038.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-
     035>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...GRANING






000
FXUS63 KDLH 151155
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
555 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE IN THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST IT HAS IMPROVED ENOUGH TO LET THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FROM KOOCHICHING COUNTY SOUTH TO ITASCA AND CROW WING
COUNTIES EXPIRE EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO TODAY. ITS COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING FRONT. THERE WILL GRADUALLY BE A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD FREEZING RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE RAP13 AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING
RAIN IS A NEGLIGIBLE THREAT. THE RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THEREFORE...ONLY VERY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

MEANWHILE...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT WILL
BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO OVER
0.75 INCHES OVER NW WISCONSIN. PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW INTO THIS
EVENING. PARTS OF FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN CAN
EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES MIGHT BE ROBUST AT
TIMES...BUT MELTING WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
UNTIL SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF UP TO 30 MPH...WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE COULD BE LOW VISIBILITY IN THE STRONGER WINDS AND
LINGERING FALLING SNOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CANADA WILL DROP TO NW ONTARIO BY LATE
TONIGHT. SNOW FLURRIES COULD LINGER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST
INTO NW WISCONSIN...BUT LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE SLEET IN NW
WISCONSIN. ALSO...THE SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING STRONG UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
THE NEED FOR EXPANDING THE ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF CANADA AND DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H50
LOW AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A
CORE OF H85 TEMPS AROUND -15 C ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR THE SNOW BELT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS OR
FLURRIES DURING THIS TIME AS H50 TEMPS OF -30 C WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUES NIGHT/WED
OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS PWAT
VALUES DROP BELOW 0.2". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD WHERE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHER
PWATS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE INTO WED
MORNING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS...WHEN WILL THE NORTHLAND SEE THE SUN? AT THIS
TIME...THE SHORT WAVE/MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE OUT OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLEARING IS HIGHEST FOR THE BORDERLAND/NRN ZONES THURSDAY AS MODELS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS APPROACHING CLIPPER
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN FLOW AND MAY BRING MORE MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO
THE FORECAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY THAN EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES...GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS...AND WINTRY PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. FOG AND
RAIN WILL PREVAIL THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...AS THE COLD AIR ADVANCES
EA SWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY...THE RAIN WILL
TRANSITION TO SLEET OR FREEZING DRIZZLE...THEN SWITCH TO ALL SNOW.
THE ICY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KBRD...KINL...AND KHIB BY
15Z...MOVING INTO THE KDLH AREA AFTER 20Z...AND REACHING KHYR
AFTER 00Z. THE WINTRY MIX WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW THROUGH THE
EVENING...WITH A BAND OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION EXPECTED
FROM KDLH TO KHYR. THE SNOW THIS EVENING WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
GUSTS TO 30 KT AT TIMES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  17  21   9 /  70  80  10  10
INL  34  10  16   4 /  50  10  10  10
BRD  37  16  20   9 /  60  60  10  10
HYR  45  23  24  12 /  90  90  50  30
ASX  45  24  25  16 /  90  90  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-035>038.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-
     035>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM/AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 151133 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
533 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE IN THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST IT HAS IMPROVED ENOUGH TO LET THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FROM KOOCHICHING COUNTY SOUTH TO ITASCA AND CROW WING
COUNTIES EXPIRE EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO TODAY. ITS COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING FRONT. THERE WILL GRADUALLY BE A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD FREEZING RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE RAP13 AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING
RAIN IS A NEGLIGIBLE THREAT. THE RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THEREFORE...ONLY VERY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

MEANWHILE...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT WILL
BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO OVER
0.75 INCHES OVER NW WISCONSIN. PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW INTO THIS
EVENING. PARTS OF FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN CAN
EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES MIGHT BE ROBUST AT
TIMES...BUT MELTING WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
UNTIL SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF UP TO 30 MPH...WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE COULD BE LOW VISIBILITY IN THE STRONGER WINDS AND
LINGERING FALLING SNOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CANADA WILL DROP TO NW ONTARIO BY LATE
TONIGHT. SNOW FLURRIES COULD LINGER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST
INTO NW WISCONSIN...BUT LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE SLEET IN NW
WISCONSIN. ALSO...THE SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING STRONG UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
THE NEED FOR EXPANDING THE ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF CANADA AND DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H50
LOW AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A
CORE OF H85 TEMPS AROUND -15 C ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR THE SNOW BELT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS OR
FLURRIES DURING THIS TIME AS H50 TEMPS OF -30 C WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUES NIGHT/WED
OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS PWAT
VALUES DROP BELOW 0.2". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD WHERE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHER
PWATS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE INTO WED
MORNING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS...WHEN WILL THE NORTHLAND SEE THE SUN? AT THIS
TIME...THE SHORT WAVE/MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE OUT OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLEARING IS HIGHEST FOR THE BORDERLAND/NRN ZONES THURSDAY AS MODELS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS APPROACHING CLIPPER
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN FLOW AND MAY BRING MORE MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO
THE FORECAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY THAN EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON DEC 14 2014

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF SEEING VLIFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG
AND DRIZZLE...WE WILL FINALLY SEE A TRANSITION TO A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AS THE TAF PERIOD WEARS ON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...DRAWING COOLER AIR
FROM NW TO SE AS THE PERIOD WEARS ON. AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE
RAIN AND DRIZZLE CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW...AND EVENTUALLY ALL
SNOW. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS...NAMELY KDLH AND KHYR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RECOVER TO IFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MVFR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  17  21   9 /  70  80  10  10
INL  34  10  16   4 /  50  10  10  10
BRD  37  16  20   9 /  60  60  10  10
HYR  45  23  24  12 /  90  90  50  30
ASX  45  24  25  16 /  90  90  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-035>038.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-
     035>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 151133 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
533 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 533 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

THE FOG IS BEGINNING TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE IN THE FAR WESTERN
FORECAST AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST IT HAS IMPROVED ENOUGH TO LET THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY FROM KOOCHICHING COUNTY SOUTH TO ITASCA AND CROW WING
COUNTIES EXPIRE EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO TODAY. ITS COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING FRONT. THERE WILL GRADUALLY BE A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD FREEZING RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE RAP13 AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING
RAIN IS A NEGLIGIBLE THREAT. THE RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THEREFORE...ONLY VERY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

MEANWHILE...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT WILL
BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO OVER
0.75 INCHES OVER NW WISCONSIN. PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW INTO THIS
EVENING. PARTS OF FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN CAN
EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES MIGHT BE ROBUST AT
TIMES...BUT MELTING WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
UNTIL SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF UP TO 30 MPH...WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE COULD BE LOW VISIBILITY IN THE STRONGER WINDS AND
LINGERING FALLING SNOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CANADA WILL DROP TO NW ONTARIO BY LATE
TONIGHT. SNOW FLURRIES COULD LINGER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST
INTO NW WISCONSIN...BUT LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE SLEET IN NW
WISCONSIN. ALSO...THE SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING STRONG UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
THE NEED FOR EXPANDING THE ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF CANADA AND DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H50
LOW AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A
CORE OF H85 TEMPS AROUND -15 C ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR THE SNOW BELT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS OR
FLURRIES DURING THIS TIME AS H50 TEMPS OF -30 C WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUES NIGHT/WED
OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS PWAT
VALUES DROP BELOW 0.2". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD WHERE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHER
PWATS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE INTO WED
MORNING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS...WHEN WILL THE NORTHLAND SEE THE SUN? AT THIS
TIME...THE SHORT WAVE/MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE OUT OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLEARING IS HIGHEST FOR THE BORDERLAND/NRN ZONES THURSDAY AS MODELS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS APPROACHING CLIPPER
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN FLOW AND MAY BRING MORE MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO
THE FORECAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY THAN EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON DEC 14 2014

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF SEEING VLIFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG
AND DRIZZLE...WE WILL FINALLY SEE A TRANSITION TO A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AS THE TAF PERIOD WEARS ON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...DRAWING COOLER AIR
FROM NW TO SE AS THE PERIOD WEARS ON. AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE
RAIN AND DRIZZLE CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW...AND EVENTUALLY ALL
SNOW. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS...NAMELY KDLH AND KHYR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RECOVER TO IFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MVFR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  17  21   9 /  70  80  10  10
INL  34  10  16   4 /  50  10  10  10
BRD  37  16  20   9 /  60  60  10  10
HYR  45  23  24  12 /  90  90  50  30
ASX  45  24  25  16 /  90  90  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-035>038.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-
     035>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 151003
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO TODAY. ITS COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING FRONT. THERE WILL GRADUALLY BE A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD FREEZING RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE RAP13 AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING
RAIN IS A NEGLIGIBLE THREAT. THE RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THEREFORE...ONLY VERY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

MEANWHILE...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT WILL
BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO OVER
0.75 INCHES OVER NW WISCONSIN. PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW INTO THIS
EVENING. PARTS OF FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN CAN
EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES MIGHT BE ROBUST AT
TIMES...BUT MELTING WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
UNTIL SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF UP TO 30 MPH...WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE COULD BE LOW VISIBILITY IN THE STRONGER WINDS AND
LINGERING FALLING SNOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CANADA WILL DROP TO NW ONTARIO BY LATE
TONIGHT. SNOW FLURRIES COULD LINGER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST
INTO NW WISCONSIN...BUT LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE SLEET IN NW
WISCONSIN. ALSO...THE SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING STRONG UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
THE NEED FOR EXPANDING THE ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF CANADA AND DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H50
LOW AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A
CORE OF H85 TEMPS AROUND -15 C ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR THE SNOW BELT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS OR
FLURRIES DURING THIS TIME AS H50 TEMPS OF -30 C WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUES NIGHT/WED
OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS PWAT
VALUES DROP BELOW 0.2". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD WHERE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHER
PWATS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE INTO WED
MORNING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS...WHEN WILL THE NORTHLAND SEE THE SUN? AT THIS
TIME...THE SHORT WAVE/MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE OUT OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLEARING IS HIGHEST FOR THE BORDERLAND/NRN ZONES THURSDAY AS MODELS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS APPROACHING CLIPPER
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN FLOW AND MAY BRING MORE MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO
THE FORECAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY THAN EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON DEC 14 2014

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF SEEING VLIFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG
AND DRIZZLE...WE WILL FINALLY SEE A TRANSITION TO A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AS THE TAF PERIOD WEARS ON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...DRAWING COOLER AIR
FROM NW TO SE AS THE PERIOD WEARS ON. AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE
RAIN AND DRIZZLE CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW...AND EVENTUALLY ALL
SNOW. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS...NAMELY KDLH AND KHYR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RECOVER TO IFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MVFR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  17  21   9 /  70  80  10  10
INL  34  10  16   4 /  50  10  10  10
BRD  37  16  20   9 /  60  60  10  10
HYR  45  23  24  12 /  90  90  50  30
ASX  45  24  25  16 /  90  90  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-035>038.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 151003
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO TODAY. ITS COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING FRONT. THERE WILL GRADUALLY BE A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD FREEZING RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE RAP13 AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING
RAIN IS A NEGLIGIBLE THREAT. THE RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THEREFORE...ONLY VERY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

MEANWHILE...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT WILL
BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO OVER
0.75 INCHES OVER NW WISCONSIN. PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW INTO THIS
EVENING. PARTS OF FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN CAN
EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES MIGHT BE ROBUST AT
TIMES...BUT MELTING WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
UNTIL SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF UP TO 30 MPH...WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE COULD BE LOW VISIBILITY IN THE STRONGER WINDS AND
LINGERING FALLING SNOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CANADA WILL DROP TO NW ONTARIO BY LATE
TONIGHT. SNOW FLURRIES COULD LINGER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST
INTO NW WISCONSIN...BUT LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE SLEET IN NW
WISCONSIN. ALSO...THE SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING STRONG UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
THE NEED FOR EXPANDING THE ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF CANADA AND DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H50
LOW AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A
CORE OF H85 TEMPS AROUND -15 C ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR THE SNOW BELT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS OR
FLURRIES DURING THIS TIME AS H50 TEMPS OF -30 C WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUES NIGHT/WED
OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS PWAT
VALUES DROP BELOW 0.2". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD WHERE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHER
PWATS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE INTO WED
MORNING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS...WHEN WILL THE NORTHLAND SEE THE SUN? AT THIS
TIME...THE SHORT WAVE/MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE OUT OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLEARING IS HIGHEST FOR THE BORDERLAND/NRN ZONES THURSDAY AS MODELS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS APPROACHING CLIPPER
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN FLOW AND MAY BRING MORE MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO
THE FORECAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY THAN EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON DEC 14 2014

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF SEEING VLIFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG
AND DRIZZLE...WE WILL FINALLY SEE A TRANSITION TO A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AS THE TAF PERIOD WEARS ON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...DRAWING COOLER AIR
FROM NW TO SE AS THE PERIOD WEARS ON. AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE
RAIN AND DRIZZLE CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW...AND EVENTUALLY ALL
SNOW. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS...NAMELY KDLH AND KHYR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RECOVER TO IFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MVFR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  17  21   9 /  70  80  10  10
INL  34  10  16   4 /  50  10  10  10
BRD  37  16  20   9 /  60  60  10  10
HYR  45  23  24  12 /  90  90  50  30
ASX  45  24  25  16 /  90  90  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-035>038.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 151003
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO TODAY. ITS COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING FRONT. THERE WILL GRADUALLY BE A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD FREEZING RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE RAP13 AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING
RAIN IS A NEGLIGIBLE THREAT. THE RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THEREFORE...ONLY VERY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

MEANWHILE...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT WILL
BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO OVER
0.75 INCHES OVER NW WISCONSIN. PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW INTO THIS
EVENING. PARTS OF FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN CAN
EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES MIGHT BE ROBUST AT
TIMES...BUT MELTING WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
UNTIL SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF UP TO 30 MPH...WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE COULD BE LOW VISIBILITY IN THE STRONGER WINDS AND
LINGERING FALLING SNOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CANADA WILL DROP TO NW ONTARIO BY LATE
TONIGHT. SNOW FLURRIES COULD LINGER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST
INTO NW WISCONSIN...BUT LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE SLEET IN NW
WISCONSIN. ALSO...THE SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING STRONG UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
THE NEED FOR EXPANDING THE ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF CANADA AND DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H50
LOW AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A
CORE OF H85 TEMPS AROUND -15 C ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR THE SNOW BELT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS OR
FLURRIES DURING THIS TIME AS H50 TEMPS OF -30 C WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUES NIGHT/WED
OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS PWAT
VALUES DROP BELOW 0.2". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD WHERE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHER
PWATS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE INTO WED
MORNING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS...WHEN WILL THE NORTHLAND SEE THE SUN? AT THIS
TIME...THE SHORT WAVE/MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE OUT OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLEARING IS HIGHEST FOR THE BORDERLAND/NRN ZONES THURSDAY AS MODELS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS APPROACHING CLIPPER
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN FLOW AND MAY BRING MORE MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO
THE FORECAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY THAN EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON DEC 14 2014

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF SEEING VLIFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG
AND DRIZZLE...WE WILL FINALLY SEE A TRANSITION TO A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AS THE TAF PERIOD WEARS ON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...DRAWING COOLER AIR
FROM NW TO SE AS THE PERIOD WEARS ON. AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE
RAIN AND DRIZZLE CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW...AND EVENTUALLY ALL
SNOW. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS...NAMELY KDLH AND KHYR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RECOVER TO IFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MVFR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  17  21   9 /  70  80  10  10
INL  34  10  16   4 /  50  10  10  10
BRD  37  16  20   9 /  60  60  10  10
HYR  45  23  24  12 /  90  90  50  30
ASX  45  24  25  16 /  90  90  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-035>038.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 151003
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER NE MINNESOTA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL MOVE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND INTO ONTARIO TODAY. ITS COLD
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND. DRIZZLE AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT MUCH OF THE
NORTHLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT THERE SHOULD BE IMPROVEMENT
FROM WEST TO EAST LATER THIS MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
COLDER AND DRIER NORTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING FRONT. THERE WILL GRADUALLY BE A TRANSITION FROM DRIZZLE
TO SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE LATE THIS MORNING AND THIS
AFTERNOON...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS COLDER AIR BEGINS TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAD FREEZING RAIN.
HOWEVER...THE RAP13 AND NAM12 MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE FREEZING
RAIN IS A NEGLIGIBLE THREAT. THE RAIN/DRIZZLE SHOULD QUICKLY
TRANSITION TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW/FREEZING DRIZZLE.
THEREFORE...ONLY VERY MINOR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED FROM
SLEET AND FREEZING DRIZZLE.

MEANWHILE...A MUCH STRONGER LOW PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
WILL LIFT INTO THE MIDWEST THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. IT WILL
BRING A SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHLAND LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING. THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL RISE TO OVER
0.75 INCHES OVER NW WISCONSIN. PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN COULD SEE
AROUND A QUARTER TO HALF INCH OF RAINFALL. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO
BE A TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO SLEET AND THEN SNOW INTO THIS
EVENING. PARTS OF FAR EASTERN MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN CAN
EXPECT VERY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF SLEET AND UP TO SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES MIGHT BE ROBUST AT
TIMES...BUT MELTING WILL LIKELY CUT DOWN ON SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
UNTIL SUFFICIENTLY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION. NORTHERLY WINDS
OF 10 TO 20 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS OF UP TO 30 MPH...WILL DEVELOP
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT. THERE COULD BE LOW VISIBILITY IN THE STRONGER WINDS AND
LINGERING FALLING SNOW.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN CANADA WILL DROP TO NW ONTARIO BY LATE
TONIGHT. SNOW FLURRIES COULD LINGER OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

DECIDED TO MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY. CONSIDERED EXPANDING THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST
INTO NW WISCONSIN...BUT LESS CONFIDENT ABOUT THE SLEET IN NW
WISCONSIN. ALSO...THE SNOW DOES NOT REALLY GET GOING STRONG UNTIL
LATER THIS EVENING. THEREFORE...WILL LET THE DAY SHIFT REEVALUATE
THE NEED FOR EXPANDING THE ADVISORY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

A SHORT WAVE WILL TRACK OUT OF CANADA AND DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED H50
LOW AS IT DROPS ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A
CORE OF H85 TEMPS AROUND -15 C ACCOMPANIES THE WAVE. THE STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL PRODUCE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW INCHES OF LAKE EFFECT/ENHANCED SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN ZONES. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND SNOW AMOUNTS
FOR THE SNOW BELT ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR
TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ELSEWHERE...HAVE BROUGHT IN SMALL POPS OR
FLURRIES DURING THIS TIME AS H50 TEMPS OF -30 C WILL PROVIDE
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO TRIGGER LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.
HOWEVER...THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW TUES NIGHT/WED
OVER MOST OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE THE LACK OF MOISTURE AS PWAT
VALUES DROP BELOW 0.2". THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD WHERE LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SUGGEST HIGHER
PWATS...WITH AN INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE INTO WED
MORNING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS...WHEN WILL THE NORTHLAND SEE THE SUN? AT THIS
TIME...THE SHORT WAVE/MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE OUT OF
THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE AND
CLEARING SKIES THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN THE
CLEARING IS HIGHEST FOR THE BORDERLAND/NRN ZONES THURSDAY AS MODELS
ARE IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE NEXT CLIPPER
THAT MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY. THIS APPROACHING CLIPPER
WILL RESULT IN A RETURN FLOW AND MAY BRING MORE MOISTURE/CLOUDS INTO
THE FORECAST THURSDAY/FRIDAY THAN EXPECTED.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONAL THROUGH THE WEEK...WITH HIGHS IN
THE 20S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS OR TEENS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST MON DEC 14 2014

AFTER SEVERAL DAYS OF SEEING VLIFR/LIFR CIGS AND VSBYS DUE TO FOG
AND DRIZZLE...WE WILL FINALLY SEE A TRANSITION TO A CHANGE IN
AIRMASS AS THE TAF PERIOD WEARS ON. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE OFF TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA...DRAWING COOLER AIR
FROM NW TO SE AS THE PERIOD WEARS ON. AS A RESULT...WE WILL SEE
RAIN AND DRIZZLE CHANGE TO SLEET AND SNOW...AND EVENTUALLY ALL
SNOW. SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LOCATIONS...NAMELY KDLH AND KHYR. CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY
RECOVER TO IFR AND POSSIBLY EVEN SOME MVFR BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  40  17  21   9 /  70  80  10  10
INL  34  10  16   4 /  50  10  10  10
BRD  37  16  20   9 /  60  60  10  10
HYR  45  23  24  12 /  90  90  50  30
ASX  45  24  25  16 /  90  90  60  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR MNZ011-012-019>021-035>038.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT CST
     TONIGHT FOR MNZ010-018-025-026-033-034.

WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR WIZ001-006.

     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR WIZ001>004-006>009.

LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ121-146>148.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM CST
     TUESDAY FOR LSZ140-141.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








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