Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS63 KDLH 081741
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1141 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE IMPROVING TO THE WEST. HAVE ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR MY WESTERN ZONES...CONTINUED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE. STILL EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OUT
WEST...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST. TWEAKED SNOW TOTALS IN
ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTY UPWARD A BIT. THINK THE AREAS ON THE NORTH
SLOPE OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE WILL SEE HIGH-END ADVISORY SNOWFALL OF
5 TO 7 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL GIVE THE DAY SHIFT AN
OPPORTUNITY TO REASSESS THE FORECAST AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
RATHER THAN UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING INVOLVE CONTINUED LIGHT
SNOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF DEPARTING CLIPPER WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WAS FOUND FROM EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WERE STILL BREEZY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND IN
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. RADAR RETURNS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
THE PRESENCE OF A TERRAIN FORCED GRAVITY WAVE ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MAIN ROTOR SEEMS TO BE
ENHANCING SNOW RATES FROM GRAND MARAIS TO DULUTH TO MOOSE
LAKE...AND ACROSS NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...WITH THE SECONDARY
CREST ENHANCING SNOW IN SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY INTO BAYFIELD
COUNTY. AT 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST...TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TODAY...WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS UPPER
SUPPORT DIMINISHES...EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO FILL AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS
ACROSS MY WEST THIS MORNING AS PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY. GRAVITY WAVE FEATURE IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION ALOFT AND SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE FOR THE FEATURE TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH THE
ROTOR SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKE...AND EXTENDING INTO
DOUGLAS...SOUTHEAST CARLTON...AND NORTHERN PINE COUNTY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE DECREASES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
ANTICIPATE MOISTURE AND HEAT FLUX FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO ENHANCE
SNOW RATES IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGING AND BROAD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WORK TO ERODE THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME. CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
THE LAKE WILL SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD...ASHLAND...AND IRON COUNTIES. WITH CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE CONSMOS
SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN AS IT WAS SUPPORTING COLDER MIN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT THAN REMAINDER OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INHERITED TEMP FORECASTS.

PRESENTLY ANTICIPATE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MY MINNESOTA
ZONES WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z AS SCHEDULED. MNDOT STILL REPORTING
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED ON SOME HIGHWAYS IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND WILL
REEVALUATE BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME. WI HEADLINES SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. BRIEFLY CONSIDERED EXTENDING ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW.
SINCE THERE IS STILL MORE THAN 24 HOURS ON THAT CLOCK...WILL LET
DAY SHIFT MAKE DECISION TO EXTEND OR CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY OF 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 7 INCHES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SFC RIDGING WITH LIGHT WINDS BUILDING OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KIWD SHOW LAPSE RATES...WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER 3KFT...AND TRAJECTORIES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE SNOW BELT OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE END OF THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
AND ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR...WHICH IS ON TRACK TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AN AREA OF RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A THERMAL
GRADIENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NW MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY.
HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL POPS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FCST IN NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS WEST OF A KINL TO KBRD LINE.

LONG RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT A BROAD AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND A TRANSITION TO A RETURN FLOW.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A
CLIPPER THAT BRING SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE EFFECTS OF A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVED THROUGH THE
REGION AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUE OVER THE
NORTHLAND...PRODUCING CONDITIONS FROM IFR TO LOW VFR. SNOW SHOWERS
OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA WILL DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS...BUT CONTINUE LONGER OVER
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...AND EVEN LONGER IN THE SNOWBELT. MAINLY MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...WITH OCCASIONAL IFR
VSBYS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
SLOWLY MOVES EAST AHEAD OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. AS IS OFTEN
THE CASE WITH A COLD AIRMASS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE PATCHES OF
MVFR CEILINGS THAT CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  15  -5   5 -12 / 100  50  10  10
INL  10 -12   0 -18 / 100  10   0  10
BRD  13  -4   7 -11 / 100  10   0  10
HYR  16   0   7  -9 / 100  70  10  20
ASX  19   4   9  -3 / 100 100  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
     002.

MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HUYCK
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 081231 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
631 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

CONDITIONS SEEM TO BE IMPROVING TO THE WEST. HAVE ALLOWED THE
ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR MY WESTERN ZONES...CONTINUED WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE SOUTH SHORE. STILL EXPECT LIGHT SNOW TO
CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER HALF INCH OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OUT
WEST...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS FARTHER EAST. TWEAKED SNOW TOTALS IN
ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTY UPWARD A BIT. THINK THE AREAS ON THE NORTH
SLOPE OF THE GOGEBIC RANGE WILL SEE HIGH-END ADVISORY SNOWFALL OF
5 TO 7 INCHES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WILL GIVE THE DAY SHIFT AN
OPPORTUNITY TO REASSESS THE FORECAST AND EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM
RATHER THAN UPGRADE TO A WARNING.

UPDATED 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING INVOLVE CONTINUED LIGHT
SNOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF DEPARTING CLIPPER WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WAS FOUND FROM EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WERE STILL BREEZY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND IN
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. RADAR RETURNS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
THE PRESENCE OF A TERRAIN FORCED GRAVITY WAVE ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MAIN ROTOR SEEMS TO BE
ENHANCING SNOW RATES FROM GRAND MARAIS TO DULUTH TO MOOSE
LAKE...AND ACROSS NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...WITH THE SECONDARY
CREST ENHANCING SNOW IN SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY INTO BAYFIELD
COUNTY. AT 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST...TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TODAY...WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS UPPER
SUPPORT DIMINISHES...EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO FILL AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS
ACROSS MY WEST THIS MORNING AS PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY. GRAVITY WAVE FEATURE IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION ALOFT AND SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE FOR THE FEATURE TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH THE
ROTOR SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKE...AND EXTENDING INTO
DOUGLAS...SOUTHEAST CARLTON...AND NORTHERN PINE COUNTY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE DECREASES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
ANTICIPATE MOISTURE AND HEAT FLUX FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO ENHANCE
SNOW RATES IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGING AND BROAD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WORK TO ERODE THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME. CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
THE LAKE WILL SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD...ASHLAND...AND IRON COUNTIES. WITH CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE CONSMOS
SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN AS IT WAS SUPPORTING COLDER MIN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT THAN REMAINDER OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INHERITED TEMP FORECASTS.

PRESENTLY ANTICIPATE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MY MINNESOTA
ZONES WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z AS SCHEDULED. MNDOT STILL REPORTING
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED ON SOME HIGHWAYS IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND WILL
REEVALUATE BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME. WI HEADLINES SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. BRIEFLY CONSIDERED EXTENDING ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW.
SINCE THERE IS STILL MORE THAN 24 HOURS ON THAT CLOCK...WILL LET
DAY SHIFT MAKE DECISION TO EXTEND OR CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY OF 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 7 INCHES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 353 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SFC RIDGING WITH LIGHT WINDS BUILDING OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KIWD SHOW LAPSE RATES...WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER 3KFT...AND TRAJECTORIES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE SNOW BELT OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE END OF THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
AND ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR...WHICH IS ON TRACK TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AN AREA OF RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A THERMAL
GRADIENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NW MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY.
HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL POPS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FCST IN NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS WEST OF A KINL TO KBRD LINE.

LONG RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT A BROAD AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND A TRANSITION TO A RETURN FLOW.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A
CLIPPER THAT BRING SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW HAS ENDED FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THE GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL ALLOW FOR AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW TO
CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE DAY. LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS AND LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH CAN BE EXPECTED AT
KHYR TODAY. LOW CEILINGS WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...
CLEARING FROM THE WEST GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. DUE TO THE STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW AND SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE TERRAIN...THE KDLH AREA
MAY SEE CLEARING EARLIER IN THE EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  15  -5   5 -12 / 100  50  10  10
INL  10 -12   0 -18 / 100  10   0  10
BRD  13  -4   7 -11 / 100  10   0  10
HYR  16   0   7  -9 / 100  70  10  20
ASX  17   4   9  -3 / 100 100  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
     002.

MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HUYCK
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 080953
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
353 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS THIS MORNING INVOLVE CONTINUED LIGHT
SNOW AND BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF DEPARTING CLIPPER WAS CENTERED OVER SOUTHEAST LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS MORNING...WITH UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER EAST-
CENTRAL WISCONSIN. WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW WAS FOUND FROM EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA ACROSS MINNESOTA AND INTO WISCONSIN. NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WINDS WERE STILL BREEZY NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR...AND IN
CENTRAL MINNESOTA. RADAR RETURNS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
THE PRESENCE OF A TERRAIN FORCED GRAVITY WAVE ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. MAIN ROTOR SEEMS TO BE
ENHANCING SNOW RATES FROM GRAND MARAIS TO DULUTH TO MOOSE
LAKE...AND ACROSS NORTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY...WITH THE SECONDARY
CREST ENHANCING SNOW IN SOUTHERN DOUGLAS COUNTY INTO BAYFIELD
COUNTY. AT 3 AM TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS
NORTHWEST...TO THE MIDDLE 20S IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR.

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EASTWARD TODAY...WITH THE
CLOSED UPPER LOW DRIFTING SOUTHEAST TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS. AS UPPER
SUPPORT DIMINISHES...EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW TO FILL AND GRADUALLY
WEAKEN. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. HAVE ELECTED TO HOLD ONTO HIGHER POPS
ACROSS MY WEST THIS MORNING AS PERSISTENT LIGHT SNOW TAPERS OFF TO
SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH TODAY. GRAVITY WAVE FEATURE IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON WIND DIRECTION ALOFT AND SHEAR. CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER
THAN AVERAGE FOR THE FEATURE TO PERSIST THROUGH TODAY WITH THE
ROTOR SHIFTING SOUTHEAST OVER THE LAKE...AND EXTENDING INTO
DOUGLAS...SOUTHEAST CARLTON...AND NORTHERN PINE COUNTY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE IN THE PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE DECREASES
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...
ANTICIPATE MOISTURE AND HEAT FLUX FROM LAKE SUPERIOR TO ENHANCE
SNOW RATES IN FAVORED LAKE EFFECT SNOW AREAS.

SURFACE RIDGING AND BROAD SUBSIDENCE SHOULD WORK TO ERODE THE
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE WEST TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD WITH TIME. CYCLONIC FLOW OVER WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR...ALONG WITH LINGERING CLOUD COVER AND CONTRIBUTIONS FROM
THE LAKE WILL SUPPORT LAKE ENHANCED/LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER PORTIONS
OF DOUGLAS...BAYFIELD...ASHLAND...AND IRON COUNTIES. WITH CLEARING
SKIES OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...HAVE LEANED CLOSER TO THE CONSMOS
SOLUTION ONCE AGAIN AS IT WAS SUPPORTING COLDER MIN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT THAN REMAINDER OF CONSENSUS GUIDANCE. OTHERWISE...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO INHERITED TEMP FORECASTS.

PRESENTLY ANTICIPATE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MY MINNESOTA
ZONES WILL EXPIRE AT 12Z AS SCHEDULED. MNDOT STILL REPORTING
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED ON SOME HIGHWAYS IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND WILL
REEVALUATE BEFORE EXPIRATION TIME. WI HEADLINES SEEM TO BE IN GOOD
SHAPE. BRIEFLY CONSIDERED EXTENDING ASHLAND AND IRON COUNTY
THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CONTINUED LAKE EFFECT/LAKE ENHANCED SNOW.
SINCE THERE IS STILL MORE THAN 24 HOURS ON THAT CLOCK...WILL LET
DAY SHIFT MAKE DECISION TO EXTEND OR CONTINUE. ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION TODAY OF 1 TO 4 INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 7 INCHES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE NORTHLAND WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN NORTHERLY FLOW OVER WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR...AND SFC RIDGING WITH LIGHT WINDS BUILDING OVER
WESTERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

LATEST NAM/GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS AT KIWD SHOW LAPSE RATES...WITH
INVERSION HEIGHTS OVER 3KFT...AND TRAJECTORIES REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR
LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVER THE SNOW BELT OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE END OF THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW WILL DEPEND ON THE TIMING OF THE ARRIVAL OF THE SFC RIDGE AXIS
AND ARRIVAL OF DRY AIR...WHICH IS ON TRACK TO SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN
LAKE SUPERIOR DURING THE WEDNESDAY NIGHT PERIOD.

AN AREA OF RAIN OR SNOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A THERMAL
GRADIENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A REGION OF STRONG MID LEVEL WARM
AIR ADVECTION OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND NW MINNESOTA WEDNESDAY.
HAVE REMOVED THE SMALL POPS THAT WERE IN PREVIOUS FCST IN NORTH-
CENTRAL MINNESOTA AS LATEST GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION REMAINS WEST OF A KINL TO KBRD LINE.

LONG RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT A BROAD AREA OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
CLEARING SKIES AND A TRANSITION TO A RETURN FLOW.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF INTEREST TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE A
CLIPPER THAT BRING SNOW CHANCES TO THE REGION FOR THE BEGINNING OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ALTERNATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ON MONDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR. IN ADDITION TO THE
FALLING SNOW OVERNIGHT WE WILL HAVE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WHICH
WILL FURTHER IMPACT VSBYS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  15  -5   5 -12 / 100  50  10  10
INL  10 -12   0 -18 / 100  10   0  10
BRD  13  -4   7 -11 /  70  10   0  10
HYR  16   0   7  -9 / 100  70  10  20
ASX  18   4   9  -3 / 100 100  50  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR WIZ001-
     002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 080548
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1148 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ALTERNATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ON MONDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR. IN ADDITION TO THE
FALLING SNOW OVERNIGHT WE WILL HAVE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WHICH
WILL FURTHER IMPACT VSBYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 080548
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1148 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ALTERNATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ON MONDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR. IN ADDITION TO THE
FALLING SNOW OVERNIGHT WE WILL HAVE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WHICH
WILL FURTHER IMPACT VSBYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 080548
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1148 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO ROTATE THROUGH THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ALTERNATE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR OVERNIGHT...AND AS DRIER AIR MOVES
IN ON MONDAY...IT WILL GRADUALLY BECOME VFR. IN ADDITION TO THE
FALLING SNOW OVERNIGHT WE WILL HAVE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW...WHICH
WILL FURTHER IMPACT VSBYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 072340
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
540 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ALTERNATVE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY...AS DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 072340
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
540 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ALTERNATVE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY...AS DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 072340
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
540 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS WILL COMBINE WITH SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CIGS/VSBYS WILL
ALTERNATVE BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST ON MONDAY...AS DRIER AIR
GRADUALLY FILTERS IN FROM THE WEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY
BECOME VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 072108
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUING MOVING ESE TODAY. IT WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.

THE PASSING CLIPPER WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...BRINGING WITH IT
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE
DROP INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY FROM -SN AND BLSN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF ABOUT
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE NORTHLAND WILL BE AT
KBRD...FOLLOWED BY KHIB/KDLH. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CEILING LIFTING LATE MONDAY
MORNING...SO THE FORECAST HAS A TRANSITION TO VFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KHYR. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THE MVFR CEILINGS
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





000
FXUS63 KDLH 072108
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS OVER THE ARROWHEAD AT 20Z. SFC TEMPS
WERE STILL WARM OVER THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S. NEAR THE SFC LOW CENTER...TEMPS WERE IN THE
UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. WHERE PCPN WAS REACHING THE GROUND...IT WAS
IN THE FORM OF SNOW. HOWEVER...WILL STILL SEE SOME RAIN MIX IN AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY FROM HINCKLEY EWD TO HYR AND PBH...AND
IMMEDIATELY NEAR THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT SEWD AN REACH EASTERN LAKE SUPERIOR BY 12Z
MONDAY. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM SFC TEMPS...WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR RAIN OR SNOW ACROSS NW WI UNTIL ABOUT 03Z. BY
THIS TIME THE COLD AIR AND LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING WILL CHANGE THE
PTYPE TO ALL SNOW. ELSEWHERE...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH
THE PASSING OF THE SFC LOW AND COMBINE WITH CAA TO INCREASE SFC WIND
SPEEDS AND CREATE SOME BLOWING SNOW. WILL LEAVE THE ADVISORY AS IS
OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE ADVISORY
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE...HAVE ADDED DOUGLAS COUNTY. THIS IS IN
RESPONSE TO THE LATEST ARW/NMM RUNS INDICATING THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A GRAVITY WAVE TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHERN DOUGLAS
COUNTY. WILL SEE SOME PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW IF THIS WAVE
DOES DEVELOP. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED EARLIER...SFC TEMPS WILL BE
RATHER WARM THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. EVEN WITH THE CAA LATER
TONIGHT...THESE FACTORS COMBINED WILL KEEP THE SNOW AMOUNTS IN CHECK
TONIGHT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL ALSO BE A BIT LOWER ELSEWHERE UNTIL THE
CAA GETS STRONGER LATE TONIGHT. BUT AT THAT TIME...QPF AMOUNTS WILL
BE DECREASING AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA GRADUALLY NOSES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THE GFS/ECMWF/CANADIAN INDICATE GRADUAL COLD AIR
ADVECTION INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE COLDEST PERIOD APPEARS
TO BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WHEN THE 850 HPA
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET TO -21 TO -25 DEGREES CELSIUS.

THE ARCTIC FLOW FOR MOST OF THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL BE
RELATIVELY DRY...WHICH WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL BUT DOWNWIND
AREAS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR. LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS LIKELY FOR
NW WISCONSIN. HOWEVER...MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY
NIGHT. THERE WILL BE AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
FORECAST AREA...ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT WILL BE OVER
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. THE TROUGH WILL PROVIDE EXTRA LIFT OVER THE
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR REGION. ALSO...MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER AT THIS
TIME. ANOTHER FEATURE RESULTED IN INCREASING PCPN CHANCES AND
SNOWFALL ACROSS DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD PENINSULA. THE
ARW/NMM/GFS/NCEPWRF ARE INDICATING A GRAVITY WAVE WILL SET UP MONDAY
EVENING ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD AND DOUGLAS COUNTIES...AND
POSSIBLY ALL THE WAY TO PINE COUNTY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DROP
OUT OF CANADA INTO THE NORTHLAND OR LAKE SUPERIOR REGION LATE IN THE
WEEK...PROBABLY SATURDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS WEEK.
THERE COULD BE MODERATION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUING MOVING ESE TODAY. IT WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.

THE PASSING CLIPPER WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...BRINGING WITH IT
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE
DROP INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY FROM -SN AND BLSN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF ABOUT
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE NORTHLAND WILL BE AT
KBRD...FOLLOWED BY KHIB/KDLH. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CEILING LIFTING LATE MONDAY
MORNING...SO THE FORECAST HAS A TRANSITION TO VFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KHYR. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THE MVFR CEILINGS
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  13  14  -3   7 /  80  70  30   0
INL   9  10 -10   1 /  80  60   0   0
BRD   9  12  -3  10 /  70  50   0   0
HYR  17  17   2  10 /  80  70  40  20
ASX  20  20   5  10 /  90  90  60  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST TUESDAY FOR WIZ003-004.

     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
     WIZ001-002.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





000
FXUS63 KDLH 071800
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS LOCATED NORTH OF INL AT 15Z. BEST
FGEN WAS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. CURRENT BATCH OF PCPN WAS
BEING DRIVEN BY VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH WAS
OVER NORTHERN MN AT 15Z. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS WEAK CAA
OCCURRING...SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S WITH UPPER 20S OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND
EITHER RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTH. INCREASED POPS OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND DECREASED ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF FORECAST
AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

INITIAL BAND OF -RASN ARRIVED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
INCREASED POPS TO MATCH AND CARRIED THEM EASTWARD THIS MORNING.
PTYPE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE WITH PWC AND SAZ REPORTING -RA
WHILE BRD IS DRY AND XVG FEATURES -SN. CONTINUED THE -RASN MIX
ACROSS MY SOUTHERN ZONES. SINCE SNOW IS NOT ESPECIALLY
HEAVY...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY ALONE.
STILL CORRESPONDS WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN THE WEST AND
EXPECTED DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES...AND ONSET OF HEAVIER SNOW IN
NW WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLIPPER POISED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL YIELD MIXED PRECIP CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A 500 MB TROUGH WAS STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN MN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A POCKET OF LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN PINE AND WESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF MIXED PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF ELY THROUGH GRAND MARAIS
INTO ASHLAND...IRON...AND SAWYER COUNTIES. THESE AREAS OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER
POCKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 09Z. SURFACE OBS INCLUDED
RAIN...SNOW...AND MIXED PRECIP WITH THAT BAND. TEMPERATURES WERE
FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF PRICE AND
IRON COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN CWA.

THE 500 MB TROF WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BY NOON TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRONG VORTICITY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT WILL BOTH PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THIS MORNING...
FALLING SHARPLY IN THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...AND DROPPING IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHEST...EXPECT A
QUICKER COOL DOWN AND A RAPID CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WRINGING OUT LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND THE TEENS IN WISCONSIN.

CLIPPER WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY EVENING. SYNOPTIC LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER CONSMOS SOLUTION WITH READINGS
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST
FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW STARTING AT NOON
TODAY. SNOW WILL BE MOST INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY MINNESOTA
ZONES AND TONIGHT OVER MY WISCONSIN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING
AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MY MINNESOTA ZONES AND
INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW ROTATES ACROSS HUDSON BAY.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S C WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES A DAY LOOK REASONABLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK AS THE CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES.

LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVER
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND A TRANSITION
TO A RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUING MOVING ESE TODAY. IT WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.

THE PASSING CLIPPER WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...BRINGING WITH IT
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE
DROP INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY FROM -SN AND BLSN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF ABOUT
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE NORTHLAND WILL BE AT
KBRD...FOLLOWED BY KHIB/KDLH. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CEILING LIFTING LATE MONDAY
MORNING...SO THE FORECAST HAS A TRANSITION TO VFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KHYR. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THE MVFR CEILINGS
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34   9  14  -2 / 100  80  70  20
INL  34   6  10 -12 / 100  60  60  10
BRD  35   9  13  -2 /  80  80  50  10
HYR  35  14  16   0 /  80  90  70  30
ASX  37  17  17   6 /  80  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KDLH 071800
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 910 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS LOCATED NORTH OF INL AT 15Z. BEST
FGEN WAS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. CURRENT BATCH OF PCPN WAS
BEING DRIVEN BY VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH WAS
OVER NORTHERN MN AT 15Z. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS WEAK CAA
OCCURRING...SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S WITH UPPER 20S OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND
EITHER RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTH. INCREASED POPS OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND DECREASED ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF FORECAST
AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

INITIAL BAND OF -RASN ARRIVED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
INCREASED POPS TO MATCH AND CARRIED THEM EASTWARD THIS MORNING.
PTYPE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE WITH PWC AND SAZ REPORTING -RA
WHILE BRD IS DRY AND XVG FEATURES -SN. CONTINUED THE -RASN MIX
ACROSS MY SOUTHERN ZONES. SINCE SNOW IS NOT ESPECIALLY
HEAVY...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY ALONE.
STILL CORRESPONDS WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN THE WEST AND
EXPECTED DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES...AND ONSET OF HEAVIER SNOW IN
NW WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLIPPER POISED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL YIELD MIXED PRECIP CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A 500 MB TROUGH WAS STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN MN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A POCKET OF LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN PINE AND WESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF MIXED PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF ELY THROUGH GRAND MARAIS
INTO ASHLAND...IRON...AND SAWYER COUNTIES. THESE AREAS OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER
POCKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 09Z. SURFACE OBS INCLUDED
RAIN...SNOW...AND MIXED PRECIP WITH THAT BAND. TEMPERATURES WERE
FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF PRICE AND
IRON COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN CWA.

THE 500 MB TROF WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BY NOON TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRONG VORTICITY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT WILL BOTH PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THIS MORNING...
FALLING SHARPLY IN THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...AND DROPPING IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHEST...EXPECT A
QUICKER COOL DOWN AND A RAPID CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WRINGING OUT LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND THE TEENS IN WISCONSIN.

CLIPPER WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY EVENING. SYNOPTIC LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER CONSMOS SOLUTION WITH READINGS
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST
FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW STARTING AT NOON
TODAY. SNOW WILL BE MOST INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY MINNESOTA
ZONES AND TONIGHT OVER MY WISCONSIN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING
AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MY MINNESOTA ZONES AND
INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW ROTATES ACROSS HUDSON BAY.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S C WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES A DAY LOOK REASONABLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK AS THE CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES.

LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVER
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND A TRANSITION
TO A RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

A CLIPPER SYSTEM OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA...AS OF EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...WILL CONTINUING MOVING ESE TODAY. IT WILL PASS OVER
WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING...THEN MOVE INTO UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.

THE PASSING CLIPPER WILL BRING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING IN THE WAKE OF THE PASSING SYSTEM...BRINGING WITH IT
A BLAST OF ARCTIC AIR. THERE WILL BE A SUBSTANTIAL TEMPERATURE
DROP INTO EARLY MONDAY.

WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS AND IFR/MVFR VISIBILITY FROM -SN AND BLSN
IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF ABOUT
15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP LATER TODAY...WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND
30 KNOTS. THE STRONGEST WINDS FOR THE NORTHLAND WILL BE AT
KBRD...FOLLOWED BY KHIB/KDLH. THE WINDS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN MONDAY
MORNING. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME CEILING LIFTING LATE MONDAY
MORNING...SO THE FORECAST HAS A TRANSITION TO VFR FOR ALL
TERMINALS EXCEPT KHYR. HOWEVER...IT IS POSSIBLE THE MVFR CEILINGS
COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34   9  14  -2 / 100  80  70  20
INL  34   6  10 -12 / 100  60  60  10
BRD  35   9  13  -2 /  80  80  50  10
HYR  35  14  16   0 /  80  90  70  30
ASX  37  17  17   6 /  80  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





000
FXUS63 KDLH 071510
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
910 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS LOCATED NORTH OF INL AT 15Z. BEST
FGEN WAS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. CURRENT BATCH OF PCPN WAS
BEING DRIVEN BY VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH WAS
OVER NORTHERN MN AT 15Z. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS WEAK CAA
OCCURRING...SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S WITH UPPER 20S OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND
EITHER RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTH. INCREASED POPS OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND DECREASED ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF FORECAST
AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

INITIAL BAND OF -RASN ARRIVED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
INCREASED POPS TO MATCH AND CARRIED THEM EASTWARD THIS MORNING.
PTYPE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE WITH PWC AND SAZ REPORTING -RA
WHILE BRD IS DRY AND XVG FEATURES -SN. CONTINUED THE -RASN MIX
ACROSS MY SOUTHERN ZONES. SINCE SNOW IS NOT ESPECIALLY
HEAVY...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY ALONE.
STILL CORRESPONDS WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN THE WEST AND
EXPECTED DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES...AND ONSET OF HEAVIER SNOW IN
NW WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLIPPER POISED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL YIELD MIXED PRECIP CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A 500 MB TROUGH WAS STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN MN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A POCKET OF LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN PINE AND WESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF MIXED PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF ELY THROUGH GRAND MARAIS
INTO ASHLAND...IRON...AND SAWYER COUNTIES. THESE AREAS OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER
POCKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 09Z. SURFACE OBS INCLUDED
RAIN...SNOW...AND MIXED PRECIP WITH THAT BAND. TEMPERATURES WERE
FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF PRICE AND
IRON COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN CWA.

THE 500 MB TROF WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BY NOON TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRONG VORTICITY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT WILL BOTH PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THIS MORNING...
FALLING SHARPLY IN THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...AND DROPPING IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHEST...EXPECT A
QUICKER COOL DOWN AND A RAPID CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WRINGING OUT LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND THE TEENS IN WISCONSIN.

CLIPPER WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY EVENING. SYNOPTIC LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER CONSMOS SOLUTION WITH READINGS
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST
FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW STARTING AT NOON
TODAY. SNOW WILL BE MOST INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY MINNESOTA
ZONES AND TONIGHT OVER MY WISCONSIN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING
AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MY MINNESOTA ZONES AND
INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW ROTATES ACROSS HUDSON BAY.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S C WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES A DAY LOOK REASONABLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK AS THE CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES.

LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVER
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND A TRANSITION
TO A RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING...TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BRING SNOW AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AND AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34   9  14  -2 / 100  80  70  20
INL  33   6  10 -12 / 100  60  60  10
BRD  34   9  13  -2 /  80  80  50  10
HYR  35  14  16   0 /  80  90  70  30
ASX  37  17  17   6 /  80  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 071510
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
910 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 910 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS LOCATED NORTH OF INL AT 15Z. BEST
FGEN WAS NORTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER. CURRENT BATCH OF PCPN WAS
BEING DRIVEN BY VORT MAX ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW WHICH WAS
OVER NORTHERN MN AT 15Z. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS WEAK CAA
OCCURRING...SFC TEMPS WERE IN THE 30S WITH UPPER 20S OVER THE TIP
OF THE ARROWHEAD...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN SNOW OVER THE NORTH AND
EITHER RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX OVER THE SOUTH. INCREASED POPS OVER
THE ARROWHEAD AND DECREASED ALONG THE SOUTHERN TIER OF FORECAST
AREA. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

INITIAL BAND OF -RASN ARRIVED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
INCREASED POPS TO MATCH AND CARRIED THEM EASTWARD THIS MORNING.
PTYPE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE WITH PWC AND SAZ REPORTING -RA
WHILE BRD IS DRY AND XVG FEATURES -SN. CONTINUED THE -RASN MIX
ACROSS MY SOUTHERN ZONES. SINCE SNOW IS NOT ESPECIALLY
HEAVY...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY ALONE.
STILL CORRESPONDS WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN THE WEST AND
EXPECTED DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES...AND ONSET OF HEAVIER SNOW IN
NW WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLIPPER POISED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL YIELD MIXED PRECIP CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A 500 MB TROUGH WAS STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN MN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A POCKET OF LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN PINE AND WESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF MIXED PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF ELY THROUGH GRAND MARAIS
INTO ASHLAND...IRON...AND SAWYER COUNTIES. THESE AREAS OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER
POCKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 09Z. SURFACE OBS INCLUDED
RAIN...SNOW...AND MIXED PRECIP WITH THAT BAND. TEMPERATURES WERE
FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF PRICE AND
IRON COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN CWA.

THE 500 MB TROF WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BY NOON TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRONG VORTICITY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT WILL BOTH PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THIS MORNING...
FALLING SHARPLY IN THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...AND DROPPING IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHEST...EXPECT A
QUICKER COOL DOWN AND A RAPID CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WRINGING OUT LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND THE TEENS IN WISCONSIN.

CLIPPER WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY EVENING. SYNOPTIC LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER CONSMOS SOLUTION WITH READINGS
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST
FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW STARTING AT NOON
TODAY. SNOW WILL BE MOST INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY MINNESOTA
ZONES AND TONIGHT OVER MY WISCONSIN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING
AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MY MINNESOTA ZONES AND
INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW ROTATES ACROSS HUDSON BAY.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S C WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES A DAY LOOK REASONABLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK AS THE CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES.

LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVER
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND A TRANSITION
TO A RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING...TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BRING SNOW AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AND AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34   9  14  -2 / 100  80  70  20
INL  33   6  10 -12 / 100  60  60  10
BRD  34   9  13  -2 /  80  80  50  10
HYR  35  14  16   0 /  80  90  70  30
ASX  37  17  17   6 /  80  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR MNZ010-018-025-
     026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 071225 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

INITIAL BAND OF -RASN ARRIVED A BIT EARLIER THAN EXPECTED.
INCREASED POPS TO MATCH AND CARRIED THEM EASTWARD THIS MORNING.
PTYPE CONTINUES TO BE AN ISSUE WITH PWC AND SAZ REPORTING -RA
WHILE BRD IS DRY AND XVG FEATURES -SN. CONTINUED THE -RASN MIX
ACROSS MY SOUTHERN ZONES. SINCE SNOW IS NOT ESPECIALLY
HEAVY...DECIDED TO LEAVE THE START TIME OF THE ADVISORY ALONE.
STILL CORRESPONDS WITH INCREASING WIND SPEEDS IN THE WEST AND
EXPECTED DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES...AND ONSET OF HEAVIER SNOW IN
NW WISCONSIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLIPPER POISED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL YIELD MIXED PRECIP CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A 500 MB TROUGH WAS STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN MN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A POCKET OF LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN PINE AND WESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF MIXED PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF ELY THROUGH GRAND MARAIS
INTO ASHLAND...IRON...AND SAWYER COUNTIES. THESE AREAS OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER
POCKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 09Z. SURFACE OBS INCLUDED
RAIN...SNOW...AND MIXED PRECIP WITH THAT BAND. TEMPERATURES WERE
FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF PRICE AND
IRON COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN CWA.

THE 500 MB TROF WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BY NOON TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRONG VORTICITY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT WILL BOTH PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THIS MORNING...
FALLING SHARPLY IN THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...AND DROPPING IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHEST...EXPECT A
QUICKER COOL DOWN AND A RAPID CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WRINGING OUT LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND THE TEENS IN WISCONSIN.

CLIPPER WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY EVENING. SYNOPTIC LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER CONSMOS SOLUTION WITH READINGS
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST
FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW STARTING AT NOON
TODAY. SNOW WILL BE MOST INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY MINNESOTA
ZONES AND TONIGHT OVER MY WISCONSIN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING
AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MY MINNESOTA ZONES AND
INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW ROTATES ACROSS HUDSON BAY.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S C WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES A DAY LOOK REASONABLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK AS THE CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES.

LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVER
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND A TRANSITION
TO A RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING...TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BRING SNOW AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AND AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34   9  14  -2 / 100  80  70  20
INL  32   6  10 -12 /  90  60  60  10
BRD  33   9  13  -2 /  80  80  50  10
HYR  35  14  16   0 /  80  90  70  30
ASX  37  17  17   6 /  80  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...HUYCK
SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 071212
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
612 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLIPPER POISED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL YIELD MIXED PRECIP CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A 500 MB TROUGH WAS STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN MN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A POCKET OF LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN PINE AND WESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF MIXED PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF ELY THROUGH GRAND MARAIS
INTO ASHLAND...IRON...AND SAWYER COUNTIES. THESE AREAS OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER
POCKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 09Z. SURFACE OBS INCLUDED
RAIN...SNOW...AND MIXED PRECIP WITH THAT BAND. TEMPERATURES WERE
FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF PRICE AND
IRON COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN CWA.

THE 500 MB TROF WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BY NOON TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRONG VORTICITY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT WILL BOTH PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THIS MORNING...
FALLING SHARPLY IN THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...AND DROPPING IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHEST...EXPECT A
QUICKER COOL DOWN AND A RAPID CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WRINGING OUT LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND THE TEENS IN WISCONSIN.

CLIPPER WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY EVENING. SYNOPTIC LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER CONSMOS SOLUTION WITH READINGS
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST
FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW STARTING AT NOON
TODAY. SNOW WILL BE MOST INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY MINNESOTA
ZONES AND TONIGHT OVER MY WISCONSIN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING
AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MY MINNESOTA ZONES AND
INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW ROTATES ACROSS HUDSON BAY.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S C WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES A DAY LOOK REASONABLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK AS THE CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES.

LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVER
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND A TRANSITION
TO A RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING...TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BRING SNOW AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AND AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36   9  14  -2 /  80  80  70  20
INL  33   6  10 -12 /  90  60  60  10
BRD  34   9  13  -2 /  70  80  50  10
HYR  36  14  16   0 /  80  90  70  30
ASX  38  17  17   6 /  80  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 071212
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
612 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLIPPER POISED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL YIELD MIXED PRECIP CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A 500 MB TROUGH WAS STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN MN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A POCKET OF LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN PINE AND WESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF MIXED PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF ELY THROUGH GRAND MARAIS
INTO ASHLAND...IRON...AND SAWYER COUNTIES. THESE AREAS OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER
POCKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 09Z. SURFACE OBS INCLUDED
RAIN...SNOW...AND MIXED PRECIP WITH THAT BAND. TEMPERATURES WERE
FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF PRICE AND
IRON COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN CWA.

THE 500 MB TROF WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BY NOON TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRONG VORTICITY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT WILL BOTH PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THIS MORNING...
FALLING SHARPLY IN THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...AND DROPPING IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHEST...EXPECT A
QUICKER COOL DOWN AND A RAPID CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WRINGING OUT LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND THE TEENS IN WISCONSIN.

CLIPPER WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY EVENING. SYNOPTIC LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER CONSMOS SOLUTION WITH READINGS
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST
FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW STARTING AT NOON
TODAY. SNOW WILL BE MOST INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY MINNESOTA
ZONES AND TONIGHT OVER MY WISCONSIN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING
AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MY MINNESOTA ZONES AND
INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW ROTATES ACROSS HUDSON BAY.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S C WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES A DAY LOOK REASONABLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK AS THE CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES.

LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVER
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND A TRANSITION
TO A RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 553 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE
MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD THIS MORNING...TRACKING ACROSS WESTERN LAKE
SUPERIOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL BRING SNOW AND MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS AND AREAS
OF BLOWING SNOW OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36   9  14  -2 /  80  80  70  20
INL  33   6  10 -12 /  90  60  60  10
BRD  34   9  13  -2 /  70  80  50  10
HYR  36  14  16   0 /  80  90  70  30
ASX  38  17  17   6 /  80  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 070958
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE SHORT TERM ARE THE CLIPPER POISED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM
WILL YIELD MIXED PRECIP CHANCES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY.

SURFACE LOW OF AN ALBERTA CLIPPER WAS CENTERED IN SOUTHEAST
MANITOBA EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH A COOL FRONT ACROSS WESTERN
MINNESOTA. A 500 MB TROUGH WAS STACKED ABOVE THE SURFACE
LOW...WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA STRETCHING FROM WESTERN MN
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. A POCKET OF LIGHT RAIN OR SLEET WAS LOCATED
OVER EASTERN PINE AND WESTERN BURNETT COUNTIES...WITH ANOTHER AREA
OF MIXED PRECIP STRETCHING FROM NORTH OF ELY THROUGH GRAND MARAIS
INTO ASHLAND...IRON...AND SAWYER COUNTIES. THESE AREAS OF PRECIP
WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING EASTWARD THIS MORNING...WITH THE
PRECIPITATION MOVING OUT OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN LATER THIS
MORNING. MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION OVER FAR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND DRIFT GRADUALLY NORTHEASTWARD. ANOTHER
POCKET OF LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND OVER EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AT 09Z. SURFACE OBS INCLUDED
RAIN...SNOW...AND MIXED PRECIP WITH THAT BAND. TEMPERATURES WERE
FAIRLY WARM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...RANGING FROM
THE UPPER 20S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AND PORTIONS OF PRICE AND
IRON COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN...TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE WESTERN CWA.

THE 500 MB TROF WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW BY NOON TODAY AS IT
PROGRESSES SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE WESTERN EDGE OF LAKE SUPERIOR.
STRONG VORTICITY CO-LOCATED WITH THIS FEATURE WILL ENHANCE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS MY THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF MY MINNESOTA
ZONES. SURFACE LOW AND COOL FRONT WILL BOTH PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHEAST MN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES BY THIS AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALLOWS HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR ALOFT TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. CURRENTLY
EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 30
MPH IN OPEN AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM THIS MORNING...
FALLING SHARPLY IN THE WEST BY LATE MORNING...AND DROPPING IN THE
EAST THIS AFTERNOON. WHERE PRECIP RATES ARE HIGHEST...EXPECT A
QUICKER COOL DOWN AND A RAPID CHANGE TO ALL SNOW.

BY TONIGHT...UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN...WITH THE SURFACE LOW PUSHING INTO UPPER MICHIGAN.
EXPECT SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION
WRINGING OUT LINGERING MOISTURE ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE DEPARTING
LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVERNIGHT INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND THE TEENS IN WISCONSIN.

CLIPPER WILL SLIDE FARTHER EAST OF THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF AS DRIER AIR ALOFT PUSHES INTO
THE WESTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN
BY EVENING. SYNOPTIC LAKE ENHANCEMENT WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE
TYPICAL LAKE EFFECT SCENARIO BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT. WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY...DO NOT THINK TEMPS WILL
RECOVER MUCH ON MONDAY. LOOK FOR HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN OVERNIGHT LOWS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...CLEARING SKIES AND
DECREASING WINDS SHOULD ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TRENDED TEMPS TOWARD THE COOLER CONSMOS SOLUTION WITH READINGS
FROM 5 ABOVE TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

HAVE OPTED TO KEEP THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS THE WEST
FOR THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW STARTING AT NOON
TODAY. SNOW WILL BE MOST INTENSE THIS AFTERNOON OVER MY MINNESOTA
ZONES AND TONIGHT OVER MY WISCONSIN COUNTIES. HAVE ADDED
ASHLAND...BAYFIELD...AND IRON COUNTIES TO THE ADVISORY BEGINNING
AT 6 PM TONIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY. EXPECT
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 4 INCHES SNOW AMOUNTS OVER MY MINNESOTA ZONES AND
INLAND AREAS OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. AREAS
ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE SHOULD SEE ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES BY
LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER 1 TO 3 INCHES MONDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BE IN A STRONG NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND GENERAL COLD AIR ADVECTION REGIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK AS A CUT OFF LOW ROTATES ACROSS HUDSON BAY.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWEST TO NORTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND 850HPA
TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE 20S C WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR. SNOWFALL
TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN
AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT
RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. HOWEVER...LIGHT AMOUNTS OF A
FEW INCHES A DAY LOOK REASONABLE ALONG PORTIONS OF THE HIGHWAY 2
CORRIDOR AND ACROSS THE GOGEBIC RANGE. THE CURRENT WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO MID-WEEK AS THE CORE OF
ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES AND INSTABILITY MAXIMIZES.

LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS SHOW THE RIDGE FINALLY PUSHES EAST OVER
THE NORTHLAND THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BRINGING AN END TO THE
LINGERING LAKE EFFECT SNOW FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND A TRANSITION
TO A RETURN FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE FIRST BATCH OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW OR SLEET SHOWERS REMAINING
OVERNIGHT. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR...LOW CLOUDS
WILL FILL BACK IN LATER IN THE NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
SOME LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  36   9  14  -2 /  80  80  70  20
INL  33   6  10 -12 /  90  60  60  10
BRD  34   9  13  -2 /  70  80  50  10
HYR  36  14  16   0 /  80  90  70  30
ASX  38  17  17   6 /  80  90  90  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST
     MONDAY FOR WIZ002>004.

MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HUYCK
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 070550
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1150 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z.
ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WAA WAS OCCURRING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND HAD
ALLOWED MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE NORTH OF SILVER BAY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE WAA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PCPN THAT FORMS IN THE
WARM SECTOR ALL LIQUID. HAVE SHOWN THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS WHERE
THERE COULD BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES. HAVE LINGERED THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS SAME AREA AS CAA WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FILTER
DOWN AND CHANGE THE PCPN TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CENTER DIPS TO NEAR LAKE OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WARMER ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT...THIS WILL EAT INTO THE
SNOW AMOUNTS AND HAVE LOWERED. THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES.

THE SFC LOW DRIFTS OVER NORTHERN WI/LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MONDAY.
WITH THE CAA CONTINUING THE PCPN WILL BE ALL SNOW ON SUNDAY. BY
AFTERNOON...BLOWING SNOW BEGINS OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...COMBINED WITH THE FALLING SNOW HAVE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 18Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY
FROM KOOCHICHING TO AITKIN COUNTIES. THE WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST OF THE ADVISORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CANADIAN CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
AND GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW VISIBILITY TO LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD GET ANOTHER ONE INCH OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT NW WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
DROP FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW. THE COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME CLEARER SKIES
TO THE REGION...BUT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
CAN ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN REBOUND TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST WILL LIKELY COME LATE THIS WEEK...BUT THE
NORTHLAND SHOULD AVOID THE BRUNT OF THE BLAST...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE FIRST BATCH OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW OR SLEET SHOWERS REMAINING
OVERNIGHT. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR...LOW CLOUDS
WILL FILL BACK IN LATER IN THE NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
SOME LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  35  10  15 /  60  70  70  40
INL  30  33   5  11 /  80  70  70  30
BRD  32  34   9  15 /  40  60  60  20
HYR  30  36  15  18 /  50  70  70  30
ASX  32  37  17  19 /  60  70  80  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 070550
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1150 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z.
ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WAA WAS OCCURRING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND HAD
ALLOWED MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE NORTH OF SILVER BAY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE WAA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PCPN THAT FORMS IN THE
WARM SECTOR ALL LIQUID. HAVE SHOWN THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS WHERE
THERE COULD BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES. HAVE LINGERED THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS SAME AREA AS CAA WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FILTER
DOWN AND CHANGE THE PCPN TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CENTER DIPS TO NEAR LAKE OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WARMER ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT...THIS WILL EAT INTO THE
SNOW AMOUNTS AND HAVE LOWERED. THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES.

THE SFC LOW DRIFTS OVER NORTHERN WI/LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MONDAY.
WITH THE CAA CONTINUING THE PCPN WILL BE ALL SNOW ON SUNDAY. BY
AFTERNOON...BLOWING SNOW BEGINS OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...COMBINED WITH THE FALLING SNOW HAVE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 18Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY
FROM KOOCHICHING TO AITKIN COUNTIES. THE WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST OF THE ADVISORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CANADIAN CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
AND GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW VISIBILITY TO LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD GET ANOTHER ONE INCH OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT NW WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
DROP FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW. THE COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME CLEARER SKIES
TO THE REGION...BUT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
CAN ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN REBOUND TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST WILL LIKELY COME LATE THIS WEEK...BUT THE
NORTHLAND SHOULD AVOID THE BRUNT OF THE BLAST...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE FIRST BATCH OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW OR SLEET SHOWERS REMAINING
OVERNIGHT. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR...LOW CLOUDS
WILL FILL BACK IN LATER IN THE NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
SOME LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  35  10  15 /  60  70  70  40
INL  30  33   5  11 /  80  70  70  30
BRD  32  34   9  15 /  40  60  60  20
HYR  30  36  15  18 /  50  70  70  30
ASX  32  37  17  19 /  60  70  80  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 070550
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1150 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z.
ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WAA WAS OCCURRING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND HAD
ALLOWED MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE NORTH OF SILVER BAY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE WAA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PCPN THAT FORMS IN THE
WARM SECTOR ALL LIQUID. HAVE SHOWN THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS WHERE
THERE COULD BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES. HAVE LINGERED THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS SAME AREA AS CAA WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FILTER
DOWN AND CHANGE THE PCPN TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CENTER DIPS TO NEAR LAKE OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WARMER ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT...THIS WILL EAT INTO THE
SNOW AMOUNTS AND HAVE LOWERED. THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES.

THE SFC LOW DRIFTS OVER NORTHERN WI/LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MONDAY.
WITH THE CAA CONTINUING THE PCPN WILL BE ALL SNOW ON SUNDAY. BY
AFTERNOON...BLOWING SNOW BEGINS OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...COMBINED WITH THE FALLING SNOW HAVE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 18Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY
FROM KOOCHICHING TO AITKIN COUNTIES. THE WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST OF THE ADVISORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CANADIAN CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
AND GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW VISIBILITY TO LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD GET ANOTHER ONE INCH OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT NW WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
DROP FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW. THE COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME CLEARER SKIES
TO THE REGION...BUT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
CAN ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN REBOUND TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST WILL LIKELY COME LATE THIS WEEK...BUT THE
NORTHLAND SHOULD AVOID THE BRUNT OF THE BLAST...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE FIRST BATCH OF WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY
DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THERE WILL BE SOME SCATTERED RAIN/SNOW OR SLEET SHOWERS REMAINING
OVERNIGHT. WHILE CONDITIONS WILL TREND TOWARD VFR...LOW CLOUDS
WILL FILL BACK IN LATER IN THE NIGHT...AND ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL THEN INCREASE FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST ON SUNDAY.
SOME LLWS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  35  10  15 /  60  70  70  40
INL  30  33   5  11 /  80  70  70  30
BRD  32  34   9  15 /  40  60  60  20
HYR  30  36  15  18 /  50  70  70  30
ASX  32  37  17  19 /  60  70  80  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 070025
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z.
ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WAA WAS OCCURRING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND HAD
ALLOWED MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE NORTH OF SILVER BAY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE WAA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PCPN THAT FORMS IN THE
WARM SECTOR ALL LIQUID. HAVE SHOWN THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS WHERE
THERE COULD BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES. HAVE LINGERED THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS SAME AREA AS CAA WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FILTER
DOWN AND CHANGE THE PCPN TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CENTER DIPS TO NEAR LAKE OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WARMER ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT...THIS WILL EAT INTO THE
SNOW AMOUNTS AND HAVE LOWERED. THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES.

THE SFC LOW DRIFTS OVER NORTHERN WI/LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MONDAY.
WITH THE CAA CONTINUING THE PCPN WILL BE ALL SNOW ON SUNDAY. BY
AFTERNOON...BLOWING SNOW BEGINS OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...COMBINED WITH THE FALLING SNOW HAVE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 18Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY
FROM KOOCHICHING TO AITKIN COUNTIES. THE WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST OF THE ADVISORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CANADIAN CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
AND GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW VISIBILITY TO LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD GET ANOTHER ONE INCH OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT NW WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
DROP FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW. THE COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME CLEARER SKIES
TO THE REGION...BUT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
CAN ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN REBOUND TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST WILL LIKELY COME LATE THIS WEEK...BUT THE
NORTHLAND SHOULD AVOID THE BRUNT OF THE BLAST...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT...AS SNOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS HAD ALREADY DETERIORATED TO IFR/LIFR AT KINL...AND WE
SHOULD SEE LARGELY VFR CIGS/VSBYS GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
IFR CIGS/VSBYS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH BANDS OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  35  10  15 /  70  60  70  40
INL  31  33   5  11 /  80  70  70  30
BRD  32  34   9  15 /  30  60  60  20
HYR  30  36  15  18 /  60  60  70  30
ASX  32  37  17  19 /  70  60  80  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 070025
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z.
ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WAA WAS OCCURRING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND HAD
ALLOWED MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE NORTH OF SILVER BAY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE WAA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PCPN THAT FORMS IN THE
WARM SECTOR ALL LIQUID. HAVE SHOWN THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS WHERE
THERE COULD BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES. HAVE LINGERED THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS SAME AREA AS CAA WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FILTER
DOWN AND CHANGE THE PCPN TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CENTER DIPS TO NEAR LAKE OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WARMER ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT...THIS WILL EAT INTO THE
SNOW AMOUNTS AND HAVE LOWERED. THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES.

THE SFC LOW DRIFTS OVER NORTHERN WI/LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MONDAY.
WITH THE CAA CONTINUING THE PCPN WILL BE ALL SNOW ON SUNDAY. BY
AFTERNOON...BLOWING SNOW BEGINS OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...COMBINED WITH THE FALLING SNOW HAVE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 18Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY
FROM KOOCHICHING TO AITKIN COUNTIES. THE WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST OF THE ADVISORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CANADIAN CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
AND GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW VISIBILITY TO LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD GET ANOTHER ONE INCH OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT NW WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
DROP FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW. THE COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME CLEARER SKIES
TO THE REGION...BUT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
CAN ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN REBOUND TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST WILL LIKELY COME LATE THIS WEEK...BUT THE
NORTHLAND SHOULD AVOID THE BRUNT OF THE BLAST...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT...AS SNOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS HAD ALREADY DETERIORATED TO IFR/LIFR AT KINL...AND WE
SHOULD SEE LARGELY VFR CIGS/VSBYS GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
IFR CIGS/VSBYS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH BANDS OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  35  10  15 /  70  60  70  40
INL  31  33   5  11 /  80  70  70  30
BRD  32  34   9  15 /  30  60  60  20
HYR  30  36  15  18 /  60  60  70  30
ASX  32  37  17  19 /  70  60  80  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 070025
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z.
ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WAA WAS OCCURRING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND HAD
ALLOWED MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE NORTH OF SILVER BAY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE WAA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PCPN THAT FORMS IN THE
WARM SECTOR ALL LIQUID. HAVE SHOWN THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS WHERE
THERE COULD BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES. HAVE LINGERED THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS SAME AREA AS CAA WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FILTER
DOWN AND CHANGE THE PCPN TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CENTER DIPS TO NEAR LAKE OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WARMER ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT...THIS WILL EAT INTO THE
SNOW AMOUNTS AND HAVE LOWERED. THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES.

THE SFC LOW DRIFTS OVER NORTHERN WI/LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MONDAY.
WITH THE CAA CONTINUING THE PCPN WILL BE ALL SNOW ON SUNDAY. BY
AFTERNOON...BLOWING SNOW BEGINS OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...COMBINED WITH THE FALLING SNOW HAVE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 18Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY
FROM KOOCHICHING TO AITKIN COUNTIES. THE WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST OF THE ADVISORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CANADIAN CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
AND GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW VISIBILITY TO LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD GET ANOTHER ONE INCH OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT NW WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
DROP FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW. THE COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME CLEARER SKIES
TO THE REGION...BUT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
CAN ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN REBOUND TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST WILL LIKELY COME LATE THIS WEEK...BUT THE
NORTHLAND SHOULD AVOID THE BRUNT OF THE BLAST...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE UNITED STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT...AS SNOW GRADUALLY DEVELOPS IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION.
CONDITIONS HAD ALREADY DETERIORATED TO IFR/LIFR AT KINL...AND WE
SHOULD SEE LARGELY VFR CIGS/VSBYS GIVE WAY TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY
IFR CIGS/VSBYS. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST...WITH BANDS OF SNOW AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME LIGHT RAIN ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  35  10  15 /  70  60  70  40
INL  31  33   5  11 /  80  70  70  30
BRD  32  34   9  15 /  30  60  60  20
HYR  30  36  15  18 /  60  60  70  30
ASX  32  37  17  19 /  70  60  80  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ010-018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 062119 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z.
ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WAA WAS OCCURRING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND HAD
ALLOWED MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE NORTH OF SILVER BAY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE WAA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PCPN THAT FORMS IN THE
WARM SECTOR ALL LIQUID. HAVE SHOWN THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS WHERE
THERE COULD BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES. HAVE LINGERED THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS SAME AREA AS CAA WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FILTER
DOWN AND CHANGE THE PCPN TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CENTER DIPS TO NEAR LAKE OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WARMER ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT...THIS WILL EAT INTO THE
SNOW AMOUNTS AND HAVE LOWERED. THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES.

THE SFC LOW DRIFTS OVER NORTHERN WI/LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MONDAY.
WITH THE CAA CONTINUING THE PCPN WILL BE ALL SNOW ON SUNDAY. BY
AFTERNOON...BLOWING SNOW BEGINS OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...COMBINED WITH THE FALLING SNOW HAVE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 18Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY
FROM KOOCHICHING TO AITKIN COUNTIES. THE WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST OF THE ADVISORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CANADIAN CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
AND GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW VISIBILITY TO LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD GET ANOTHER ONE INCH OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT NW WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
DROP FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW. THE COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME CLEARER SKIES
TO THE REGION...BUT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
CAN ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN REBOUND TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST WILL LIKELY COME LATE THIS WEEK...BUT THE
NORTHLAND SHOULD AVOID THE BRUNT OF THE BLAST...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE UNITED STATES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC CEILINGS AROUND 10 KFT WILL LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE FIRST ROUND...FROM AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL SNOW...BUT THERE
COULD BE BRIEF LIFR VISIBILITY FROM THE SNOW.

INCREASING WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 35 TO 40 KNOTS AROUND 2 KFT...AND BECOME
WESTERLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
GRADUALLY ABATE LATE TONIGHT.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN
MOVE NEAR THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. WHEN THE CLIPPER FINALLY MOVES TO NEAR THE NORTHLAND...IT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  35  10  15 /  70  60  70  40
INL  31  33   5  11 /  80  70  70  30
BRD  32  34   9  15 /  30  60  60  20
HYR  30  36  15  18 /  60  60  70  30
ASX  32  37  17  19 /  70  60  80  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR
     MNZ010- 018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





000
FXUS63 KDLH 062119
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z.
ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WAA WAS OCCURRING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND HAD
ALLOWED MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE NORTH OF SILVER BAY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE WAA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PCPN THAT FORMS IN THE
WARM SECTOR ALL LIQUID. HAVE SHOWN THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS WHERE
THERE COULD BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES. HAVE LINGERED THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS SAME AREA AS CAA WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FILTER
DOWN AND CHANGE THE PCPN TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CENTER DIPS TO NEAR LAKE OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WARMER ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT...THIS WILL EAT INTO THE
SNOW AMOUNTS AND HAVE LOWERED. THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES.

THE SFC LOW DRIFTS OVER NORTHERN WI/LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MONDAY.
WITH THE CAA CONTINUING THE PCPN WILL BE ALL SNOW ON SUNDAY. BY
AFTERNOON...BLOWING SNOW BEGINS OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...COMBINED WITH THE FALLING SNOW HAVE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 18Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY
FROM KOOCHICHING TO AITKIN COUNTIES. THE WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST OF THE ADVISORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CANADIAN CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
AND GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW VISIBILITY TO LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD GET ANOTHER ONE INCH OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT NW WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
DROP FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW. THE COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME CLEARER SKIES
TO THE REGION...BUT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
CAN ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN REBOUND TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST WILL LIKELY COME LATE THIS WEEK...BUT THE
NORTHLAND SHOULD AVOID THE BRUNT OF THE BLAST...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE UNITED STATES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC CEILINGS AROUND 10 KFT WILL LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE FIRST ROUND...FROM AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL SNOW...BUT THERE
COULD BE BRIEF LIFR VISIBILITY FROM THE SNOW.

INCREASING WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 35 TO 40 KNOTS AROUND 2 KFT...AND BECOME
WESTERLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
GRADUALLY ABATE LATE TONIGHT.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN
MOVE NEAR THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. WHEN THE CLIPPER FINALLY MOVES TO NEAR THE NORTHLAND...IT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  35  10  15 /  70  60  70  40
INL  31  33   5  11 /  80  70  70  30
BRD  32  34   9  15 /  30  60  60  20
HYR  30  36  15  18 /  60  60  70  30
ASX  32  37  17  19 /  70  60  80  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ010-
     018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





000
FXUS63 KDLH 062119
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z.
ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WAA WAS OCCURRING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND HAD
ALLOWED MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE NORTH OF SILVER BAY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE WAA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PCPN THAT FORMS IN THE
WARM SECTOR ALL LIQUID. HAVE SHOWN THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS WHERE
THERE COULD BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES. HAVE LINGERED THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS SAME AREA AS CAA WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FILTER
DOWN AND CHANGE THE PCPN TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CENTER DIPS TO NEAR LAKE OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WARMER ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT...THIS WILL EAT INTO THE
SNOW AMOUNTS AND HAVE LOWERED. THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES.

THE SFC LOW DRIFTS OVER NORTHERN WI/LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MONDAY.
WITH THE CAA CONTINUING THE PCPN WILL BE ALL SNOW ON SUNDAY. BY
AFTERNOON...BLOWING SNOW BEGINS OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...COMBINED WITH THE FALLING SNOW HAVE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 18Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY
FROM KOOCHICHING TO AITKIN COUNTIES. THE WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST OF THE ADVISORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CANADIAN CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
AND GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW VISIBILITY TO LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD GET ANOTHER ONE INCH OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT NW WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
DROP FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW. THE COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME CLEARER SKIES
TO THE REGION...BUT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
CAN ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN REBOUND TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST WILL LIKELY COME LATE THIS WEEK...BUT THE
NORTHLAND SHOULD AVOID THE BRUNT OF THE BLAST...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE UNITED STATES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC CEILINGS AROUND 10 KFT WILL LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE FIRST ROUND...FROM AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL SNOW...BUT THERE
COULD BE BRIEF LIFR VISIBILITY FROM THE SNOW.

INCREASING WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 35 TO 40 KNOTS AROUND 2 KFT...AND BECOME
WESTERLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
GRADUALLY ABATE LATE TONIGHT.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN
MOVE NEAR THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. WHEN THE CLIPPER FINALLY MOVES TO NEAR THE NORTHLAND...IT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  35  10  15 /  70  60  70  40
INL  31  33   5  11 /  80  70  70  30
BRD  32  34   9  15 /  30  60  60  20
HYR  30  36  15  18 /  60  60  70  30
ASX  32  37  17  19 /  70  60  80  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ010-
     018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KDLH 062119
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
319 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

STRONG SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS CENTERED IN EASTERN SASKATCHEWAN AT 20Z.
ITS WARM FRONT EXTENDED SEWD TO THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG WAA WAS OCCURRING OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND HAD
ALLOWED MAX TEMPS TO REACH INTO THE 30S...EXCEPT ALONG THE NORTH
SHORE NORTH OF SILVER BAY WHERE TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S.

THE WAA WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING WITH H85 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. THIS WILL KEEP ANY PCPN THAT FORMS IN THE
WARM SECTOR ALL LIQUID. HAVE SHOWN THIS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS WHERE
THERE COULD BE RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ESPECIALLY IN THE BRAINERD LAKES. HAVE LINGERED THE
RAIN/SNOW MIX IN THIS SAME AREA AS CAA WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO FILTER
DOWN AND CHANGE THE PCPN TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LIGHT SNOW
ELSEWHERE TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW CENTER DIPS TO NEAR LAKE OF THE
WOODS. WITH THE WARMER ATMOSPHERE TONIGHT...THIS WILL EAT INTO THE
SNOW AMOUNTS AND HAVE LOWERED. THE WINDS WILL SLACKEN A BIT LATE
TONIGHT AS THE SFC LOW APPROACHES.

THE SFC LOW DRIFTS OVER NORTHERN WI/LAKE SUPERIOR BY 00Z MONDAY.
WITH THE CAA CONTINUING THE PCPN WILL BE ALL SNOW ON SUNDAY. BY
AFTERNOON...BLOWING SNOW BEGINS OVER THE WESTERN TIER OF THE
FORECAST AREA...COMBINED WITH THE FALLING SNOW HAVE A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW FROM 18Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY
FROM KOOCHICHING TO AITKIN COUNTIES. THE WIND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
EAST OF THE ADVISORY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

A CANADIAN CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL FINISH MOVING THROUGH THE LAKE
SUPERIOR AND UPPER PENINSULA MICHIGAN REGION SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
COMBINATION OF LINGERING LIGHT SYNOPTIC SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
AND GUSTY NNW WINDS WILL CAUSE LOW VISIBILITY TO LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE NORTHLAND SHOULD GET ANOTHER ONE INCH OF
SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT...BUT NW WISCONSIN WILL LIKELY 1 TO 3 INCHES
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE WILL ALSO BE A PRONOUNCED TEMPERATURE
DROP FROM SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS TO THE
NORTHLAND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY.

THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL FEATURE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF NNW ARCTIC
FLOW. THE COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY AIR MAY BRING SOME CLEARER SKIES
TO THE REGION...BUT AREAS OF NW WISCONSIN DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR
CAN ANTICIPATE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...THEN REBOUND TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST WILL LIKELY COME LATE THIS WEEK...BUT THE
NORTHLAND SHOULD AVOID THE BRUNT OF THE BLAST...WITH THE COLDEST AIR
MAINLY AFFECTING EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE UNITED STATES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC CEILINGS AROUND 10 KFT WILL LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE FIRST ROUND...FROM AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL SNOW...BUT THERE
COULD BE BRIEF LIFR VISIBILITY FROM THE SNOW.

INCREASING WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 35 TO 40 KNOTS AROUND 2 KFT...AND BECOME
WESTERLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
GRADUALLY ABATE LATE TONIGHT.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN
MOVE NEAR THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. WHEN THE CLIPPER FINALLY MOVES TO NEAR THE NORTHLAND...IT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  31  35  10  15 /  70  60  70  40
INL  31  33   5  11 /  80  70  70  30
BRD  32  34   9  15 /  30  60  60  20
HYR  30  36  15  18 /  60  60  70  30
ASX  32  37  17  19 /  70  60  80  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 6 PM CST SUNDAY FOR MNZ010-
     018-025-026-033>036.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





000
FXUS63 KDLH 061745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATE FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING AND HAVE MADE AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE SKY GRIDS. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 843 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME
PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED. THE FOG SHOULD ERODE QUICKLY WITH
MIXING ALREADY UNDERWAY. LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS BRING
LIGHT SNOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED AS A RESULT. MADE SOME OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW/POSSIBLE
HEADLINES

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR HAS SOME RETURNS IN CENTRAL MN BUT
NOTHING HAS REACHED THE GROUND YET.  MODELS/OBS SHOW THE SFC
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WI AT THIS TIME AND WILL CLEAR
THE STATE BY MID-MORNING. NO FLURRIES HAVE HIT ANY OB SITES BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A BREAK
BEFORE THE MAIN SNOW SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS INDICATED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT....THE NAM IS A LITTLE FAST WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SOLUTION.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREA OF THE FORECAST
REGION EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON FOR A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE REGION. IT
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN MB/OT BORDER BY 00Z SUN...NEAR THE
TRIANGLE BY 12Z SUN...AND NEAR THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA BY 00Z MON.
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND COVER FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUN. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES/LEECH LAKE AREA. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 15 TO
25 MPH COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS/SNOW MAY
CAUSE WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONG RANGE FOCUS ON STRONG WINDS THAT WILL SPREAD INTO MINNESOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT....BECOMING WIDESPREAD MONDAY.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...PLACING THE NORTHLAND IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
NW LOW LEVEL JET WITH 925HPA WINDS OF 30KT SPREADS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE MONDAY. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWEST 1500-
2000 FT REMAIN MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME....SUPPORTING GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KT ACROSS THE MN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MONDAY...THE ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GUSTY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

TURNING TO POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THAT BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
EVENING...TAPERING OFF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
850HPA TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEGATIVE 20C ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL
PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...GENERALLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND
MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC CEILINGS AROUND 10 KFT WILL LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE FIRST ROUND...FROM AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL SNOW...BUT THERE
COULD BE BRIEF LIFR VISIBILITY FROM THE SNOW.

INCREASING WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 35 TO 40 KNOTS AROUND 2 KFT...AND BECOME
WESTERLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
GRADUALLY ABATE LATE TONIGHT.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN
MOVE NEAR THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. WHEN THE CLIPPER FINALLY MOVES TO NEAR THE NORTHLAND...IT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  26  31  14 /  20  40  60  70
INL  31  25  31   5 /  80  60  70  60
BRD  35  29  33   9 /  10  40  60  60
HYR  33  26  35  18 /  10  20  60  70
ASX  34  27  35  19 /  10  20  60  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





000
FXUS63 KDLH 061745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATE FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING AND HAVE MADE AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE SKY GRIDS. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 843 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME
PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED. THE FOG SHOULD ERODE QUICKLY WITH
MIXING ALREADY UNDERWAY. LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS BRING
LIGHT SNOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED AS A RESULT. MADE SOME OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW/POSSIBLE
HEADLINES

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR HAS SOME RETURNS IN CENTRAL MN BUT
NOTHING HAS REACHED THE GROUND YET.  MODELS/OBS SHOW THE SFC
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WI AT THIS TIME AND WILL CLEAR
THE STATE BY MID-MORNING. NO FLURRIES HAVE HIT ANY OB SITES BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A BREAK
BEFORE THE MAIN SNOW SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS INDICATED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT....THE NAM IS A LITTLE FAST WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SOLUTION.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREA OF THE FORECAST
REGION EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON FOR A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE REGION. IT
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN MB/OT BORDER BY 00Z SUN...NEAR THE
TRIANGLE BY 12Z SUN...AND NEAR THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA BY 00Z MON.
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND COVER FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUN. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES/LEECH LAKE AREA. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 15 TO
25 MPH COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS/SNOW MAY
CAUSE WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONG RANGE FOCUS ON STRONG WINDS THAT WILL SPREAD INTO MINNESOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT....BECOMING WIDESPREAD MONDAY.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...PLACING THE NORTHLAND IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
NW LOW LEVEL JET WITH 925HPA WINDS OF 30KT SPREADS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE MONDAY. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWEST 1500-
2000 FT REMAIN MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME....SUPPORTING GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KT ACROSS THE MN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MONDAY...THE ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GUSTY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

TURNING TO POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THAT BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
EVENING...TAPERING OFF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
850HPA TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEGATIVE 20C ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL
PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...GENERALLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND
MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC CEILINGS AROUND 10 KFT WILL LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE FIRST ROUND...FROM AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL SNOW...BUT THERE
COULD BE BRIEF LIFR VISIBILITY FROM THE SNOW.

INCREASING WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 35 TO 40 KNOTS AROUND 2 KFT...AND BECOME
WESTERLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
GRADUALLY ABATE LATE TONIGHT.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN
MOVE NEAR THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. WHEN THE CLIPPER FINALLY MOVES TO NEAR THE NORTHLAND...IT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  26  31  14 /  20  40  60  70
INL  31  25  31   5 /  80  60  70  60
BRD  35  29  33   9 /  10  40  60  60
HYR  33  26  35  18 /  10  20  60  70
ASX  34  27  35  19 /  10  20  60  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KDLH 061745
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1145 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

UPDATE FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING AND HAVE MADE AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE SKY GRIDS. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 843 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME
PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED. THE FOG SHOULD ERODE QUICKLY WITH
MIXING ALREADY UNDERWAY. LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS BRING
LIGHT SNOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED AS A RESULT. MADE SOME OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW/POSSIBLE
HEADLINES

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR HAS SOME RETURNS IN CENTRAL MN BUT
NOTHING HAS REACHED THE GROUND YET.  MODELS/OBS SHOW THE SFC
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WI AT THIS TIME AND WILL CLEAR
THE STATE BY MID-MORNING. NO FLURRIES HAVE HIT ANY OB SITES BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A BREAK
BEFORE THE MAIN SNOW SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS INDICATED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT....THE NAM IS A LITTLE FAST WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SOLUTION.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREA OF THE FORECAST
REGION EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON FOR A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE REGION. IT
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN MB/OT BORDER BY 00Z SUN...NEAR THE
TRIANGLE BY 12Z SUN...AND NEAR THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA BY 00Z MON.
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND COVER FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUN. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES/LEECH LAKE AREA. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 15 TO
25 MPH COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS/SNOW MAY
CAUSE WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONG RANGE FOCUS ON STRONG WINDS THAT WILL SPREAD INTO MINNESOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT....BECOMING WIDESPREAD MONDAY.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...PLACING THE NORTHLAND IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
NW LOW LEVEL JET WITH 925HPA WINDS OF 30KT SPREADS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE MONDAY. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWEST 1500-
2000 FT REMAIN MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME....SUPPORTING GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KT ACROSS THE MN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MONDAY...THE ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GUSTY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

TURNING TO POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THAT BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
EVENING...TAPERING OFF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
850HPA TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEGATIVE 20C ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL
PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...GENERALLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND
MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE WIDESPREAD BKN/OVC CEILINGS AROUND 10 KFT WILL LOWER LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT AS THE FIRST ROUND...FROM AN
APPROACHING CLIPPER SYSTEM...MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. EXPECT A
PERIOD OF IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE INITIAL SNOW...BUT THERE
COULD BE BRIEF LIFR VISIBILITY FROM THE SNOW.

INCREASING WINDS ALOFT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WILL
RESULT IN A PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. THE SW WINDS WILL
INCREASE TO ABOUT 35 TO 40 KNOTS AROUND 2 KFT...AND BECOME
WESTERLY BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL
GRADUALLY ABATE LATE TONIGHT.

THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN SOUTHERN MANITOBA TONIGHT. IT WILL THEN
MOVE NEAR THE ONTARIO/MINNESOTA BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING. WHEN THE CLIPPER FINALLY MOVES TO NEAR THE NORTHLAND...IT
WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW TO
THE REGION. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP
DURING THE MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  26  31  14 /  20  40  60  70
INL  31  25  31   5 /  80  60  70  60
BRD  35  29  33   9 /  10  40  60  60
HYR  33  26  35  18 /  10  20  60  70
ASX  34  27  35  19 /  10  20  60  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





000
FXUS63 KDLH 061706
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1106 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1106 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE OCCURRING AND HAVE MADE AN
ADJUSTMENT TO THE SKY GRIDS. REST OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 843 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME
PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED. THE FOG SHOULD ERODE QUICKLY WITH
MIXING ALREADY UNDERWAY. LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS BRING
LIGHT SNOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED AS A RESULT. MADE SOME OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW/POSSIBLE
HEADLINES

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR HAS SOME RETURNS IN CENTRAL MN BUT
NOTHING HAS REACHED THE GROUND YET.  MODELS/OBS SHOW THE SFC
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WI AT THIS TIME AND WILL CLEAR
THE STATE BY MID-MORNING. NO FLURRIES HAVE HIT ANY OB SITES BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A BREAK
BEFORE THE MAIN SNOW SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS INDICATED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT....THE NAM IS A LITTLE FAST WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SOLUTION.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREA OF THE FORECAST
REGION EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON FOR A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE REGION. IT
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN MB/OT BORDER BY 00Z SUN...NEAR THE
TRIANGLE BY 12Z SUN...AND NEAR THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA BY 00Z MON.
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND COVER FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUN. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES/LEECH LAKE AREA. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 15 TO
25 MPH COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS/SNOW MAY
CAUSE WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONG RANGE FOCUS ON STRONG WINDS THAT WILL SPREAD INTO MINNESOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT....BECOMING WIDESPREAD MONDAY.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...PLACING THE NORTHLAND IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
NW LOW LEVEL JET WITH 925HPA WINDS OF 30KT SPREADS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE MONDAY. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWEST 1500-
2000 FT REMAIN MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME....SUPPORTING GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KT ACROSS THE MN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MONDAY...THE ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GUSTY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

TURNING TO POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THAT BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
EVENING...TAPERING OFF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
850HPA TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEGATIVE 20C ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL
PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...GENERALLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND
MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CEILINGS WITH PATCHY FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PREVAILING MVFR AND LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING. HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KINL FOR
A 30-40 KNOT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  26  31  14 /  20  40  60  70
INL  31  25  31   5 /  80  60  70  60
BRD  35  29  33   9 /  10  40  60  60
HYR  33  26  35  18 /  10  20  60  70
ASX  34  27  35  19 /  10  20  60  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 061443
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
843 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 843 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

PLENTY OF CLOUDS COVERED THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. SOME
PATCHY FOG HAS ALSO DEVELOPED. THE FOG SHOULD ERODE QUICKLY WITH
MIXING ALREADY UNDERWAY. LATEST SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS BRING
LIGHT SNOW A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND HAVE ADJUSTED AS A RESULT. MADE SOME OTHER
ADJUSTMENTS AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW/POSSIBLE
HEADLINES

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR HAS SOME RETURNS IN CENTRAL MN BUT
NOTHING HAS REACHED THE GROUND YET.  MODELS/OBS SHOW THE SFC
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WI AT THIS TIME AND WILL CLEAR
THE STATE BY MID-MORNING. NO FLURRIES HAVE HIT ANY OB SITES BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A BREAK
BEFORE THE MAIN SNOW SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS INDICATED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT....THE NAM IS A LITTLE FAST WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SOLUTION.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREA OF THE FORECAST
REGION EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON FOR A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE REGION. IT
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN MB/OT BORDER BY 00Z SUN...NEAR THE
TRIANGLE BY 12Z SUN...AND NEAR THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA BY 00Z MON.
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND COVER FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUN. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES/LEECH LAKE AREA. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 15 TO
25 MPH COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS/SNOW MAY
CAUSE WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONG RANGE FOCUS ON STRONG WINDS THAT WILL SPREAD INTO MINNESOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT....BECOMING WIDESPREAD MONDAY.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...PLACING THE NORTHLAND IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
NW LOW LEVEL JET WITH 925HPA WINDS OF 30KT SPREADS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE MONDAY. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWEST 1500-
2000 FT REMAIN MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME....SUPPORTING GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KT ACROSS THE MN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MONDAY...THE ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GUSTY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

TURNING TO POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THAT BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
EVENING...TAPERING OFF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
850HPA TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEGATIVE 20C ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL
PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...GENERALLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND
MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CEILINGS WITH PATCHY FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PREVAILING MVFR AND LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING. HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KINL FOR
A 30-40 KNOT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  26  31  14 /  30  40  60  70
INL  31  25  31   5 /  70  60  70  60
BRD  35  29  33   9 /  20  40  60  60
HYR  33  26  35  18 /  10  20  60  70
ASX  34  27  35  19 /  10  20  60  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 061238
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
638 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW/POSSIBLE
HEADLINES

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR HAS SOME RETURNS IN CENTRAL MN BUT
NOTHING HAS REACHED THE GROUND YET.  MODELS/OBS SHOW THE SFC
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WI AT THIS TIME AND WILL CLEAR
THE STATE BY MID-MORNING. NO FLURRIES HAVE HIT ANY OB SITES BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A BREAK
BEFORE THE MAIN SNOW SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS INDICATED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT....THE NAM IS A LITTLE FAST WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SOLUTION.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREA OF THE FORECAST
REGION EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON FOR A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE REGION. IT
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN MB/OT BORDER BY 00Z SUN...NEAR THE
TRIANGLE BY 12Z SUN...AND NEAR THE BAYFIELD PENINSULA BY 00Z MON.
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND COVER FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUN. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES/LEECH LAKE AREA. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 15 TO
25 MPH COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS/SNOW MAY
CAUSE WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONG RANGE FOCUS ON STRONG WINDS THAT WILL SPREAD INTO MINNESOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT....BECOMING WIDESPREAD MONDAY.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...PLACING THE NORTHLAND IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
NW LOW LEVEL JET WITH 925HPA WINDS OF 30KT SPREADS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE MONDAY. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWEST 1500-
2000 FT REMAIN MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME....SUPPORTING GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KT ACROSS THE MN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MONDAY...THE ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GUSTY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

TURNING TO POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THAT BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
EVENING...TAPERING OFF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
850HPA TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEGATIVE 20C ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL
PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...GENERALLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND
MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 622 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WIDESPREAD MID LEVEL CEILINGS WITH PATCHY FOG AND MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. AN APPROACHING
CLIPPER WILL BRING GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH PREVAILING MVFR AND LIGHT SNOW THIS EVENING. HAVE
INTRODUCED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT ALL TERMINALS EXCEPT KINL FOR
A 30-40 KNOT SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  33  26  31  14 /  10  40  60  70
INL  31  25  31   5 /  30  60  70  60
BRD  35  29  33   9 /  10  40  60  60
HYR  33  26  35  18 /  10  20  60  70
ASX  34  27  35  19 /  10  20  60  80

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 060920
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW/POSSIBLE
HEADLINES

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR HAS SOME RETURNS IN CENTRAL MN BUT
NOTHING HAS REACHED THE GROUND YET.  MODELS/OBS SHOW THE SFC
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WI AT THIS TIME AND WILL CLEAR
THE STATE BY MID-MORNING. NO FLURRIES HAVE HIT ANY OB SITES BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A BREAK
BEFORE THE MAIN SNOW SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS INDICATED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT....THE NAM IS A LITTLE FAST WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SOLUTION.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREA OF THE FORECAST
REGION EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON FOR A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE REGION. IT
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN MB/OT BORDER BY 00Z SUN...NEAR THE
TRIANGLE BY 12Z SUN...AND NEAR THE BAYFIELD PENISULA BY 00Z MON.
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND COVER FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUN. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES/LEECH LAKE AREA. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 15 TO
25 MPH COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS/SNOW MAY
CAUSE WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATER TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONG RANGE FOCUS ON STRONG WINDS THAT WILL SPREAD INTO MINNESOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT....BECOMING WIDESPREAD MONDAY.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...PLACING THE NORTHLAND IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
NW LOW LEVEL JET WITH 925HPA WINDS OF 30KT SPREADS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE MONDAY. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWEST 1500-
2000 FT REMAIN MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME....SUPPORTING GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KT ACROSS THE MN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MONDAY...THE ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GUSTY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

TURNING TO POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THAT BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
EVENING...TAPERING OFF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
850HPA TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEGATIVE 20C ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL
PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...GENERALLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND
MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
EVENING...BUT SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS FOUND FROM MID
TO LATE EVENING. THIS CORRIDOR RAN FROM THE KINL AREA...SOUTHWARD
TO KGPZ AND TO POINTS NORTH AND WEST FROM THERE. AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON...WE SHOULD SEE THIS EXPAND...RESULTING IN CLOUDS
GRADUALLY SCOURING OUT IN THE KHIB AND KDLH AREA. ON SATURDAY...WE
SHOULD THEN SEE THE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AND SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE
AREA. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT BY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...WITH KDLH...KHIB AND KINL SEEING THE LOWEST VSBYS AND
CIGS AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  26  31  14 /  10  20  60  60
INL  28  25  31   8 /  30  50  70  50
BRD  34  29  33  10 /  10  10  60  40
HYR  32  26  35  19 /  10  10  60  70
ASX  32  27  35  20 /  10  20  50  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 060920
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW/POSSIBLE
HEADLINES

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR HAS SOME RETURNS IN CENTRAL MN BUT
NOTHING HAS REACHED THE GROUND YET.  MODELS/OBS SHOW THE SFC
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WI AT THIS TIME AND WILL CLEAR
THE STATE BY MID-MORNING. NO FLURRIES HAVE HIT ANY OB SITES BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A BREAK
BEFORE THE MAIN SNOW SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS INDICATED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT....THE NAM IS A LITTLE FAST WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SOLUTION.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREA OF THE FORECAST
REGION EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON FOR A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE REGION. IT
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN MB/OT BORDER BY 00Z SUN...NEAR THE
TRIANGLE BY 12Z SUN...AND NEAR THE BAYFIELD PENISULA BY 00Z MON.
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND COVER FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUN. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES/LEECH LAKE AREA. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 15 TO
25 MPH COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS/SNOW MAY
CAUSE WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATER TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONG RANGE FOCUS ON STRONG WINDS THAT WILL SPREAD INTO MINNESOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT....BECOMING WIDESPREAD MONDAY.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...PLACING THE NORTHLAND IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
NW LOW LEVEL JET WITH 925HPA WINDS OF 30KT SPREADS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE MONDAY. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWEST 1500-
2000 FT REMAIN MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME....SUPPORTING GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KT ACROSS THE MN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MONDAY...THE ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GUSTY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

TURNING TO POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THAT BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
EVENING...TAPERING OFF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
850HPA TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEGATIVE 20C ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL
PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...GENERALLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND
MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
EVENING...BUT SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS FOUND FROM MID
TO LATE EVENING. THIS CORRIDOR RAN FROM THE KINL AREA...SOUTHWARD
TO KGPZ AND TO POINTS NORTH AND WEST FROM THERE. AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON...WE SHOULD SEE THIS EXPAND...RESULTING IN CLOUDS
GRADUALLY SCOURING OUT IN THE KHIB AND KDLH AREA. ON SATURDAY...WE
SHOULD THEN SEE THE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AND SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE
AREA. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT BY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...WITH KDLH...KHIB AND KINL SEEING THE LOWEST VSBYS AND
CIGS AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  26  31  14 /  10  20  60  60
INL  28  25  31   8 /  30  50  70  50
BRD  34  29  33  10 /  10  10  60  40
HYR  32  26  35  19 /  10  10  60  70
ASX  32  27  35  20 /  10  20  50  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 060920
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CONCERN FOR SHORT TERM IS SNOWFALL TONIGHT AND TOMORROW/POSSIBLE
HEADLINES

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. RADAR HAS SOME RETURNS IN CENTRAL MN BUT
NOTHING HAS REACHED THE GROUND YET.  MODELS/OBS SHOW THE SFC
TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN WI AT THIS TIME AND WILL CLEAR
THE STATE BY MID-MORNING. NO FLURRIES HAVE HIT ANY OB SITES BUT
THERE COULD BE SOME ACROSS THE REGION. THERE WILL BE A BREAK
BEFORE THE MAIN SNOW SYSTEM BEGINS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS INDICATED BY PREVIOUS SHIFT....THE NAM IS A LITTLE FAST WITH
THE MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA MIDDAY. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF FOR SOLUTION.
THE WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN AREA OF THE FORECAST
REGION EARLY AFTERNOON. WILL HAVE CHC POPS MAINLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 2 THIS AFTERNOON FOR A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA.

THE MAIN SHOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS
ARE SIMILAR IN THE MOVEMENT OF THE CLIPPER THROUGH THE REGION. IT
WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN MB/OT BORDER BY 00Z SUN...NEAR THE
TRIANGLE BY 12Z SUN...AND NEAR THE BAYFIELD PENISULA BY 00Z MON.
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION WEST TO EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND COVER FORECAST AREA BY 18Z SUN. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT.

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 INCHES ACROSS THE REGION WITH
THE LOWER AMOUNTS IN THE BRAINERD LAKES/LEECH LAKE AREA. WINDS
WILL ALSO BE GUSTY SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH READINGS OF 15 TO
25 MPH COMMON ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF WINDS/SNOW MAY
CAUSE WINTER WX ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
LATER TODAY.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LONG RANGE FOCUS ON STRONG WINDS THAT WILL SPREAD INTO MINNESOTA
SUNDAY NIGHT....BECOMING WIDESPREAD MONDAY.

THE CLOSED LOW WILL EXIT TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...PLACING THE NORTHLAND IN A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AS
RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE DAKOTAS. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A
NW LOW LEVEL JET WITH 925HPA WINDS OF 30KT SPREADS INTO WESTERN
MINNESOTA SUNDAY NIGHT...PUSHING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE MONDAY. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOWEST 1500-
2000 FT REMAIN MIXED THROUGH THE NIGHT IN THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
REGIME....SUPPORTING GUSTS OF 20 TO 30KT ACROSS THE MN ZONES.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE LOW CLOUDS MONDAY...THE ELEVATED LOW LEVEL
WINDS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS GUSTY ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION THROUGH TUESDAY.

TURNING TO POPS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. THERE WILL BE SNOW SHOWERS ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW THAT BRING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY
EVENING...TAPERING OFF THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE
850HPA TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF NEGATIVE 20C ARE EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE TUESDAY. THE COLD AIR MASS AND NORTHWEST TRAJECTORIES WILL
PRODUCE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT
SNOW ALONG THE HIGHWAY 2 CORRIDOR IN NORTHERN WISCONSIN...GENERALLY
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE DIFFICULT AT THIS
TIME DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY IN AVAILABLE DEEP MOISTURE AS PWATS AND
MID LEVELS LOOK TO DRY OUT RAPIDLY AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
EVENING...BUT SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS FOUND FROM MID
TO LATE EVENING. THIS CORRIDOR RAN FROM THE KINL AREA...SOUTHWARD
TO KGPZ AND TO POINTS NORTH AND WEST FROM THERE. AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON...WE SHOULD SEE THIS EXPAND...RESULTING IN CLOUDS
GRADUALLY SCOURING OUT IN THE KHIB AND KDLH AREA. ON SATURDAY...WE
SHOULD THEN SEE THE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AND SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE
AREA. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT BY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...WITH KDLH...KHIB AND KINL SEEING THE LOWEST VSBYS AND
CIGS AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  30  26  31  14 /  10  20  60  60
INL  28  25  31   8 /  30  50  70  50
BRD  34  29  33  10 /  10  10  60  40
HYR  32  26  35  19 /  10  10  60  70
ASX  32  27  35  20 /  10  20  50  70

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...STEWART
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 060544
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1144 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM AN EQUALLY WEAK SFC LOW
CENTER IN NW MN...SWWD INTO EASTERN SD AT 20Z. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...A PARTLY SUNNY SKY COVERED THE FORECAST AREA. A PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT WAS DRIFTING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IT HAS PROVIDED SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN
THIS AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW
ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN MN. NAM/GFS/ECMWF QPF FIELDS ARE WAY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN
SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT THE ARROWHEAD BEFORE 00Z. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO EASTERN WI BY 06Z AS THE SFC LOW REACHES
NE LAKE SUPERIOR AND A SFC TROF REACHES NW WI. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS WELL AS IN NORTH
CENTRAL WI. SOME FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NW WI AND
HAVE A MENTION. THE SFC TROF EXITS NW WI BY 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL AS
THE UPPER TROF. LINGERED SOME SMALL POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AS
THESE FEATURES PASS BY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM.

ON SATURDAY...THE NAM IS WAY TOO FAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/SPREADING
OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
REACH INTO NE MN BY 18Z. PREFER THE GFS20/ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE AREA
FREE OF SNOW BEFORE 18Z. THIS IS DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A DIGGING UPPER TROF REACHES THE DAKOTAS. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARM FRONT TO BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE IRON RANGE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS/WEATHER AS A RESULT. LITTLE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE...AND WILL BE WRUNG OUT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING ITS
TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...SO INCREASED PCPN CHANCES. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SO THE INITIAL SNOW WILL BE LIMITED NORTH AND EAST OF
THE WARM FRONT...AFFECTING ONLY THE ARROWHEAD. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE GUNFLINT TRAIL AND GRAND PORTAGE AREA
COULD GET 1 TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN THE WHOLE
NORTHLAND SHOULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF THE LOW. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW SUNDAY...AND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS AND FALLING SNOW
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY...PARTICULARLY
IN MORE OPEN AREAS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES...AND THE
COLD NW FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN.

CLEARER SKIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE
CONTINUED NORTHERLY ARCTIC FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN WELL THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE LOWER 30S...BUT THERE WILL BE A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP
INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER. THE TEMPERATURES DROP A
LITTLE MORE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RECOVERY
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST COMING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
EVENING...BUT SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS FOUND FROM MID
TO LATE EVENING. THIS CORRIDOR RAN FROM THE KINL AREA...SOUTHWARD
TO KGPZ AND TO POINTS NORTH AND WEST FROM THERE. AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON...WE SHOULD SEE THIS EXPAND...RESULTING IN CLOUDS
GRADUALLY SCOURING OUT IN THE KHIB AND KDLH AREA. ON SATURDAY...WE
SHOULD THEN SEE THE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AND SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE
AREA. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT BY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...WITH KDLH...KHIB AND KINL SEEING THE LOWEST VSBYS AND
CIGS AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  30  26  31 /  10  10  20  60
INL  14  28  25  31 /  10  30  50  70
BRD  18  34  29  33 /   0  10  10  60
HYR  17  32  26  35 /  10  10  10  60
ASX  18  32  27  35 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 060544
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1144 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM AN EQUALLY WEAK SFC LOW
CENTER IN NW MN...SWWD INTO EASTERN SD AT 20Z. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...A PARTLY SUNNY SKY COVERED THE FORECAST AREA. A PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT WAS DRIFTING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IT HAS PROVIDED SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN
THIS AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW
ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN MN. NAM/GFS/ECMWF QPF FIELDS ARE WAY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN
SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT THE ARROWHEAD BEFORE 00Z. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO EASTERN WI BY 06Z AS THE SFC LOW REACHES
NE LAKE SUPERIOR AND A SFC TROF REACHES NW WI. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS WELL AS IN NORTH
CENTRAL WI. SOME FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NW WI AND
HAVE A MENTION. THE SFC TROF EXITS NW WI BY 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL AS
THE UPPER TROF. LINGERED SOME SMALL POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AS
THESE FEATURES PASS BY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM.

ON SATURDAY...THE NAM IS WAY TOO FAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/SPREADING
OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
REACH INTO NE MN BY 18Z. PREFER THE GFS20/ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE AREA
FREE OF SNOW BEFORE 18Z. THIS IS DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A DIGGING UPPER TROF REACHES THE DAKOTAS. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARM FRONT TO BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE IRON RANGE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS/WEATHER AS A RESULT. LITTLE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE...AND WILL BE WRUNG OUT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING ITS
TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...SO INCREASED PCPN CHANCES. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SO THE INITIAL SNOW WILL BE LIMITED NORTH AND EAST OF
THE WARM FRONT...AFFECTING ONLY THE ARROWHEAD. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE GUNFLINT TRAIL AND GRAND PORTAGE AREA
COULD GET 1 TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN THE WHOLE
NORTHLAND SHOULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF THE LOW. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW SUNDAY...AND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS AND FALLING SNOW
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY...PARTICULARLY
IN MORE OPEN AREAS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES...AND THE
COLD NW FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN.

CLEARER SKIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE
CONTINUED NORTHERLY ARCTIC FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN WELL THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE LOWER 30S...BUT THERE WILL BE A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP
INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER. THE TEMPERATURES DROP A
LITTLE MORE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RECOVERY
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST COMING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
EVENING...BUT SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS FOUND FROM MID
TO LATE EVENING. THIS CORRIDOR RAN FROM THE KINL AREA...SOUTHWARD
TO KGPZ AND TO POINTS NORTH AND WEST FROM THERE. AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON...WE SHOULD SEE THIS EXPAND...RESULTING IN CLOUDS
GRADUALLY SCOURING OUT IN THE KHIB AND KDLH AREA. ON SATURDAY...WE
SHOULD THEN SEE THE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AND SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE
AREA. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT BY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...WITH KDLH...KHIB AND KINL SEEING THE LOWEST VSBYS AND
CIGS AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  30  26  31 /  10  10  20  60
INL  14  28  25  31 /  10  30  50  70
BRD  18  34  29  33 /   0  10  10  60
HYR  17  32  26  35 /  10  10  10  60
ASX  18  32  27  35 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 060544
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1144 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM AN EQUALLY WEAK SFC LOW
CENTER IN NW MN...SWWD INTO EASTERN SD AT 20Z. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...A PARTLY SUNNY SKY COVERED THE FORECAST AREA. A PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT WAS DRIFTING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IT HAS PROVIDED SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN
THIS AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW
ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN MN. NAM/GFS/ECMWF QPF FIELDS ARE WAY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN
SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT THE ARROWHEAD BEFORE 00Z. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO EASTERN WI BY 06Z AS THE SFC LOW REACHES
NE LAKE SUPERIOR AND A SFC TROF REACHES NW WI. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS WELL AS IN NORTH
CENTRAL WI. SOME FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NW WI AND
HAVE A MENTION. THE SFC TROF EXITS NW WI BY 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL AS
THE UPPER TROF. LINGERED SOME SMALL POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AS
THESE FEATURES PASS BY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM.

ON SATURDAY...THE NAM IS WAY TOO FAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/SPREADING
OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
REACH INTO NE MN BY 18Z. PREFER THE GFS20/ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE AREA
FREE OF SNOW BEFORE 18Z. THIS IS DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A DIGGING UPPER TROF REACHES THE DAKOTAS. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARM FRONT TO BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE IRON RANGE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS/WEATHER AS A RESULT. LITTLE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE...AND WILL BE WRUNG OUT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING ITS
TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...SO INCREASED PCPN CHANCES. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SO THE INITIAL SNOW WILL BE LIMITED NORTH AND EAST OF
THE WARM FRONT...AFFECTING ONLY THE ARROWHEAD. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE GUNFLINT TRAIL AND GRAND PORTAGE AREA
COULD GET 1 TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN THE WHOLE
NORTHLAND SHOULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF THE LOW. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW SUNDAY...AND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS AND FALLING SNOW
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY...PARTICULARLY
IN MORE OPEN AREAS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES...AND THE
COLD NW FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN.

CLEARER SKIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE
CONTINUED NORTHERLY ARCTIC FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN WELL THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE LOWER 30S...BUT THERE WILL BE A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP
INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER. THE TEMPERATURES DROP A
LITTLE MORE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RECOVERY
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST COMING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WERE FOUND ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
EVENING...BUT SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW CLOUDS WAS FOUND FROM MID
TO LATE EVENING. THIS CORRIDOR RAN FROM THE KINL AREA...SOUTHWARD
TO KGPZ AND TO POINTS NORTH AND WEST FROM THERE. AS THE NIGHT
WEARS ON...WE SHOULD SEE THIS EXPAND...RESULTING IN CLOUDS
GRADUALLY SCOURING OUT IN THE KHIB AND KDLH AREA. ON SATURDAY...WE
SHOULD THEN SEE THE MVFR CIGS REDEVELOP AND SPREAD BACK ACROSS THE
AREA. SNOW WILL BREAK OUT BY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST...WITH KDLH...KHIB AND KINL SEEING THE LOWEST VSBYS AND
CIGS AS LOW PRESSURE SLIDES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  30  26  31 /  10  10  20  60
INL  14  28  25  31 /  10  30  50  70
BRD  18  34  29  33 /   0  10  10  60
HYR  17  32  26  35 /  10  10  10  60
ASX  18  32  27  35 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 060007
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
607 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM AN EQUALLY WEAK SFC LOW
CENTER IN NW MN...SWWD INTO EASTERN SD AT 20Z. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...A PARTLY SUNNY SKY COVERED THE FORECAST AREA. A PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT WAS DRIFTING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IT HAS PROVIDED SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN
THIS AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW
ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN MN. NAM/GFS/ECMWF QPF FIELDS ARE WAY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN
SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT THE ARROWHEAD BEFORE 00Z. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO EASTERN WI BY 06Z AS THE SFC LOW REACHES
NE LAKE SUPERIOR AND A SFC TROF REACHES NW WI. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS WELL AS IN NORTH
CENTRAL WI. SOME FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NW WI AND
HAVE A MENTION. THE SFC TROF EXITS NW WI BY 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL AS
THE UPPER TROF. LINGERED SOME SMALL POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AS
THESE FEATURES PASS BY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM.

ON SATURDAY...THE NAM IS WAY TOO FAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/SPREADING
OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
REACH INTO NE MN BY 18Z. PREFER THE GFS20/ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE AREA
FREE OF SNOW BEFORE 18Z. THIS IS DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A DIGGING UPPER TROF REACHES THE DAKOTAS. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARM FRONT TO BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE IRON RANGE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS/WEATHER AS A RESULT. LITTLE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE...AND WILL BE WRUNG OUT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING ITS
TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...SO INCREASED PCPN CHANCES. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SO THE INITIAL SNOW WILL BE LIMITED NORTH AND EAST OF
THE WARM FRONT...AFFECTING ONLY THE ARROWHEAD. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE GUNFLINT TRAIL AND GRAND PORTAGE AREA
COULD GET 1 TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN THE WHOLE
NORTHLAND SHOULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF THE LOW. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW SUNDAY...AND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS AND FALLING SNOW
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY...PARTICULARLY
IN MORE OPEN AREAS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES...AND THE
COLD NW FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN.

CLEARER SKIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE
CONTINUED NORTHERLY ARCTIC FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN WELL THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE LOWER 30S...BUT THERE WILL BE A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP
INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER. THE TEMPERATURES DROP A
LITTLE MORE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RECOVERY
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST COMING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING MORE MVFR CIGS AND SOME VSBYS AS
WELL...WITH LIGHT SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  30  26  31 /  10  10  20  60
INL  12  28  25  31 /  10  30  50  70
BRD  14  34  29  33 /   0  10  10  60
HYR  16  32  26  35 /  10  10  10  60
ASX  19  32  27  35 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 060007
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
607 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM AN EQUALLY WEAK SFC LOW
CENTER IN NW MN...SWWD INTO EASTERN SD AT 20Z. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...A PARTLY SUNNY SKY COVERED THE FORECAST AREA. A PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT WAS DRIFTING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IT HAS PROVIDED SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN
THIS AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW
ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN MN. NAM/GFS/ECMWF QPF FIELDS ARE WAY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN
SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT THE ARROWHEAD BEFORE 00Z. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO EASTERN WI BY 06Z AS THE SFC LOW REACHES
NE LAKE SUPERIOR AND A SFC TROF REACHES NW WI. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS WELL AS IN NORTH
CENTRAL WI. SOME FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NW WI AND
HAVE A MENTION. THE SFC TROF EXITS NW WI BY 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL AS
THE UPPER TROF. LINGERED SOME SMALL POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AS
THESE FEATURES PASS BY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM.

ON SATURDAY...THE NAM IS WAY TOO FAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/SPREADING
OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
REACH INTO NE MN BY 18Z. PREFER THE GFS20/ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE AREA
FREE OF SNOW BEFORE 18Z. THIS IS DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A DIGGING UPPER TROF REACHES THE DAKOTAS. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARM FRONT TO BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE IRON RANGE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS/WEATHER AS A RESULT. LITTLE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE...AND WILL BE WRUNG OUT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING ITS
TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...SO INCREASED PCPN CHANCES. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SO THE INITIAL SNOW WILL BE LIMITED NORTH AND EAST OF
THE WARM FRONT...AFFECTING ONLY THE ARROWHEAD. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE GUNFLINT TRAIL AND GRAND PORTAGE AREA
COULD GET 1 TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN THE WHOLE
NORTHLAND SHOULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF THE LOW. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW SUNDAY...AND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS AND FALLING SNOW
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY...PARTICULARLY
IN MORE OPEN AREAS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES...AND THE
COLD NW FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN.

CLEARER SKIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE
CONTINUED NORTHERLY ARCTIC FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN WELL THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE LOWER 30S...BUT THERE WILL BE A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP
INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER. THE TEMPERATURES DROP A
LITTLE MORE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RECOVERY
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST COMING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING MORE MVFR CIGS AND SOME VSBYS AS
WELL...WITH LIGHT SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  30  26  31 /  10  10  20  60
INL  12  28  25  31 /  10  30  50  70
BRD  14  34  29  33 /   0  10  10  60
HYR  16  32  26  35 /  10  10  10  60
ASX  19  32  27  35 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 060007
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
607 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A WEAK TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED FROM AN EQUALLY WEAK SFC LOW
CENTER IN NW MN...SWWD INTO EASTERN SD AT 20Z. AHEAD OF THESE
FEATURES...A PARTLY SUNNY SKY COVERED THE FORECAST AREA. A PIECE OF
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALOFT WAS DRIFTING ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. IT HAS PROVIDED SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES IN
THIS AREA. THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO NW
ONTARIO BY THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER SHORT WAVE TROF MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHERN MN. NAM/GFS/ECMWF QPF FIELDS ARE WAY OVERDONE...BUT EVEN
SHORT TERM HIRES MODELS ARE SUGGESTING SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL
AFFECT THE ARROWHEAD BEFORE 00Z. HAVE SOME SMALL POPS IN PLACE OVER
THE ARROWHEAD.

THE UPPER TROF MOVES INTO EASTERN WI BY 06Z AS THE SFC LOW REACHES
NE LAKE SUPERIOR AND A SFC TROF REACHES NW WI. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD AS WELL AS IN NORTH
CENTRAL WI. SOME FLURRIES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN NW WI AND
HAVE A MENTION. THE SFC TROF EXITS NW WI BY 12Z SATURDAY AS WELL AS
THE UPPER TROF. LINGERED SOME SMALL POPS IN NORTH CENTRAL WI AS
THESE FEATURES PASS BY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM.

ON SATURDAY...THE NAM IS WAY TOO FAST WITH THE DEVELOPMENT/SPREADING
OF LIGHT SNOW INTO THE REGION ALONG A WARM FRONT THAT IS PROGGED TO
REACH INTO NE MN BY 18Z. PREFER THE GFS20/ECMWF WHICH KEEP THE AREA
FREE OF SNOW BEFORE 18Z. THIS IS DUE TO A FAIRLY DRY COLUMN. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A DIGGING UPPER TROF REACHES THE DAKOTAS. THIS
WILL COMBINE WITH THE WARM FRONT TO BRING AN OPPORTUNITY FOR LIGHT
SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA...MAINLY NORTH OF
THE IRON RANGE TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. MAINTAINED THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST POPS/WEATHER AS A RESULT. LITTLE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
IS AVAILABLE...AND WILL BE WRUNG OUT. SNOW AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

A CANADIAN CLIPPER WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT CONCERNING ITS
TRACK AND ASSOCIATED PCPN...SO INCREASED PCPN CHANCES. THE
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND SO THE INITIAL SNOW WILL BE LIMITED NORTH AND EAST OF
THE WARM FRONT...AFFECTING ONLY THE ARROWHEAD. THE LOW WILL MOVE
INTO THE NORTHLAND SUNDAY...AND SNOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST. THE GUNFLINT TRAIL AND GRAND PORTAGE AREA
COULD GET 1 TO 2 INCHES SATURDAY EVENING...AND THEN THE WHOLE
NORTHLAND SHOULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
THE PASSING OF THE LOW. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE
WAKE OF THE PASSING LOW SUNDAY...AND WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE 15 TO 25 MPH WINDS AND FALLING SNOW
WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY...PARTICULARLY
IN MORE OPEN AREAS.

ARCTIC AIR WILL FILTER INTO THE NORTHLAND MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING CLIPPER. THERE COULD BE LINGERING SNOW FLURRIES...AND THE
COLD NW FLOW WILL LIKELY CAUSE LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS
DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN.

CLEARER SKIES WILL LIKELY DEVELOP FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE
CONTINUED NORTHERLY ARCTIC FLOW COULD CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT LAKE
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS DOWNWIND OVER NW WISCONSIN WELL THROUGH AT LEAST
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL ON SUNDAY WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE LOWER 30S...BUT THERE WILL BE A 15 TO 20 DEGREE TEMPERATURE DROP
INTO MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE CLIPPER. THE TEMPERATURES DROP A
LITTLE MORE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
SINGLE DIGITS TO LOW TEENS. THERE COULD BE A LITTLE RECOVERY
THURSDAY...BUT IT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE
INDICATING ANOTHER ARCTIC BLAST COMING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 605 PM CST FRI FEB 5 2016

WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME BREAKS OF VFR CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. ON SATURDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST...BRINGING MORE MVFR CIGS AND SOME VSBYS AS
WELL...WITH LIGHT SNOW SPREADING ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  16  30  26  31 /  10  10  20  60
INL  12  28  25  31 /  10  30  50  70
BRD  14  34  29  33 /   0  10  10  60
HYR  16  32  26  35 /  10  10  10  60
ASX  19  32  27  35 /  10  10  20  50

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP





    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities