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000
FXUS63 KDLH 020535
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1235 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED TO AN AREA OF MODERATE
RAINFALL...NOW ALL EAST OF A LINE FROM HAYWARD-ASHLAND. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT...WITH A NARROW STRIPE
OF TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH FROM SOUTHERN PINE COUNTY EAST TO
SOUTHERN ASHLAND COUNTY. THE RAINFALL PRETTY MUCH STAYED OUT OF
DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD COUNTIES...WHERE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
FELL. WITH THIS LACK OF RAINFALL...AFTER COORDINATION WITH WI DNR
AND USFS REPRESENTATIVES HAVE EXPANDED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO
THOSE TWO COUNTIES...AND WE CAN REVISIT THIS ISSUE AGAIN IN THE
MORNING FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADES TO RED FLAG WARNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR LATEST RADAR AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. NEXT SLUG OF
PRECIPITATION IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO PINE
AND BURNETT COUNTIES...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...OTHERWISE A VERY WARM AND WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A DRY
AIRMASS BEHIND...WHICH COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER LOW DEEPENS
OVER SOUTHERN SASK/MANITOBA. AN ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER SRN
SASK/NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ WHERE WINDS OFF THE LAKE
WILL DRASTICALLY LIMIT SFC TEMPS. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND WINDY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING THROUGH AS THE ELONGATED SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
EAST. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS...AND CAUSE DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN. COULD ALSO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A T-STORM IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

TODAY...BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
VERY WARM...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIMITED CAPE BUT
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE QUICK T-STORMS TO POP
UP...AND WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A FEW
STORMS...THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF IN DURATION. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
/25 TO 30 DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS/...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND. HIGHS MID 60S TO NEAR
60...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE AND ALONG THE ARROWHEAD WHERE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 40S TO 50S.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...WINDY...COOL...AND DRY. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND EVEN A BIT OF SBCAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO 20 TO 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE
TEENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL GENERALLY BE COOL NW FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY AND COULD BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SHOWING A SOME SHOWERS AND
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MIGHT LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 00Z THURSDAY
EVENING. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30KTS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS 20-25KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR
STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN INTO KINL AND KHIB AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  40  24  42 /  10   0  30  10
INL  18  35  17  35 /  20   0  20  10
BRD  23  41  25  48 /   0   0  20  10
HYR  25  42  22  47 /  10  10  30  10
ASX  26  40  22  42 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ001-002.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 020535
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1235 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED TO AN AREA OF MODERATE
RAINFALL...NOW ALL EAST OF A LINE FROM HAYWARD-ASHLAND. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT...WITH A NARROW STRIPE
OF TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH FROM SOUTHERN PINE COUNTY EAST TO
SOUTHERN ASHLAND COUNTY. THE RAINFALL PRETTY MUCH STAYED OUT OF
DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD COUNTIES...WHERE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
FELL. WITH THIS LACK OF RAINFALL...AFTER COORDINATION WITH WI DNR
AND USFS REPRESENTATIVES HAVE EXPANDED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO
THOSE TWO COUNTIES...AND WE CAN REVISIT THIS ISSUE AGAIN IN THE
MORNING FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADES TO RED FLAG WARNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR LATEST RADAR AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. NEXT SLUG OF
PRECIPITATION IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO PINE
AND BURNETT COUNTIES...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...OTHERWISE A VERY WARM AND WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A DRY
AIRMASS BEHIND...WHICH COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER LOW DEEPENS
OVER SOUTHERN SASK/MANITOBA. AN ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER SRN
SASK/NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ WHERE WINDS OFF THE LAKE
WILL DRASTICALLY LIMIT SFC TEMPS. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND WINDY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING THROUGH AS THE ELONGATED SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
EAST. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS...AND CAUSE DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN. COULD ALSO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A T-STORM IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

TODAY...BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
VERY WARM...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIMITED CAPE BUT
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE QUICK T-STORMS TO POP
UP...AND WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A FEW
STORMS...THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF IN DURATION. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
/25 TO 30 DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS/...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND. HIGHS MID 60S TO NEAR
60...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE AND ALONG THE ARROWHEAD WHERE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 40S TO 50S.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...WINDY...COOL...AND DRY. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND EVEN A BIT OF SBCAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO 20 TO 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE
TEENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL GENERALLY BE COOL NW FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY AND COULD BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SHOWING A SOME SHOWERS AND
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MIGHT LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1234 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 00Z THURSDAY
EVENING. WINDS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OUT OF THE WEST-SOUTHWEST
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z WITH SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 30KTS FOR SOME LOCATIONS. STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH 00Z...GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO 10-15KTS WITH
GUSTS 20-25KTS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR
STRATUS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN INTO KINL AND KHIB AFTER 00Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  23  40  24  42 /  10   0  30  10
INL  18  35  17  35 /  20   0  20  10
BRD  23  41  25  48 /   0   0  20  10
HYR  25  42  22  47 /  10  10  30  10
ASX  26  40  22  42 /  10  10  30  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
     EVENING FOR WIZ001-002.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 020354
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1054 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED TO AN AREA OF MODERATE
RAINFALL...NOW ALL EAST OF A LINE FROM HAYWARD-ASHLAND. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT...WITH A NARROW STRIPE
OF TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH FROM SOUTHERN PINE COUNTY EAST TO
SOUTHERN ASHLAND COUNTY. THE RAINFALL PRETTY MUCH STAYED OUT OF
DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD COUNTIES...WHERE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
FELL. WITH THIS LACK OF RAINFALL...AFTER COORDINATION WITH WI DNR
AND USFS REPRESENTATIVES HAVE EXPANDED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO
THOSE TWO COUNTIES...AND WE CAN REVISIT THIS ISSUE AGAIN IN THE
MORNING FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADES TO RED FLAG WARNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR LATEST RADAR AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. NEXT SLUG OF
PRECIPITATION IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO PINE
AND BURNETT COUNTIES...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...OTHERWISE A VERY WARM AND WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A DRY
AIRMASS BEHIND...WHICH COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER LOW DEEPENS
OVER SOUTHERN SASK/MANITOBA. AN ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER SRN
SASK/NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ WHERE WINDS OFF THE LAKE
WILL DRASTICALLY LIMIT SFC TEMPS. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND WINDY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING THROUGH AS THE ELONGATED SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
EAST. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS...AND CAUSE DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN. COULD ALSO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A T-STORM IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

TODAY...BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
VERY WARM...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIMITED CAPE BUT
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE QUICK T-STORMS TO POP
UP...AND WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A FEW
STORMS...THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF IN DURATION. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
/25 TO 30 DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS/...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND. HIGHS MID 60S TO NEAR
60...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE AND ALONG THE ARROWHEAD WHERE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 40S TO 50S.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...WINDY...COOL...AND DRY. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND EVEN A BIT OF SBCAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO 20 TO 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE
TEENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL GENERALLY BE COOL NW FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY AND COULD BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SHOWING A SOME SHOWERS AND
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MIGHT LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
AFFECT KHYR AND POSSIBLY KDLH UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE
TERMINALS TO GET VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS TO SWITCH FROM GUSTY SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING THROUGH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY FOR KDLH AND KHYR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTION AND WIND SHEAR IN
THE FIRST 2KFT. OVERNIGHT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALSO BE WEAK
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
AND 2KFT WINDS APPROACHING 40KTS...BUT OUT OF THE SAME DIRECTION. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND SEE IF MODEL FORECASTS ARE STILL INDICATING
THIS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY IS THE
VERY STRONG WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS THAT SHOULD PICK UP BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z TO 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO AROUND 30 KT RANGE.
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER 18Z
WITH MVFR BASES...AND A PERIOD OF CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE. HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES.

A NOTE ON THE MISSING KHIB OBSERVATIONS. THE ASOS IS OPERATING...BUT
UNABLE TO SEND OUT ITS INFORMATION THROUGH NORMAL MEANS. A PHONE
LINE MAY HAVE BEEN POTENTIALLY CUT...SO WE ARE UNABLE TO DIGITALLY
RECEIVE THE OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE USING OCCASIONAL REPORTS
FROM THE AIRPORT MANAGER...AS WELL AS NEARBY OBSERVATIONS AND
OTHER DATA AVAILABLE...TO PROVIDE TAFS AS BEST AS POSSIBLE UNTIL
THE PROBLEM IS RESOLVED. AN AMD NOT SKED REMARK HAS BEEN INCLUDED
IN THE TAF.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  59  23  40 /  10  10  10   0
INL  37  51  18  35 /  10  30  20   0
BRD  40  58  23  41 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  44  61  25  42 / 100   0  10  10
ASX  43  62  26  40 /  50   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WIZ001-002.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 020354
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1054 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1053 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAVE DIMINISHED TO AN AREA OF MODERATE
RAINFALL...NOW ALL EAST OF A LINE FROM HAYWARD-ASHLAND. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SO FAR HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT...WITH A NARROW STRIPE
OF TWO TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH FROM SOUTHERN PINE COUNTY EAST TO
SOUTHERN ASHLAND COUNTY. THE RAINFALL PRETTY MUCH STAYED OUT OF
DOUGLAS AND BAYFIELD COUNTIES...WHERE A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS
FELL. WITH THIS LACK OF RAINFALL...AFTER COORDINATION WITH WI DNR
AND USFS REPRESENTATIVES HAVE EXPANDED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO
THOSE TWO COUNTIES...AND WE CAN REVISIT THIS ISSUE AGAIN IN THE
MORNING FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADES TO RED FLAG WARNING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR LATEST RADAR AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. NEXT SLUG OF
PRECIPITATION IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO PINE
AND BURNETT COUNTIES...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...OTHERWISE A VERY WARM AND WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A DRY
AIRMASS BEHIND...WHICH COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER LOW DEEPENS
OVER SOUTHERN SASK/MANITOBA. AN ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER SRN
SASK/NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ WHERE WINDS OFF THE LAKE
WILL DRASTICALLY LIMIT SFC TEMPS. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND WINDY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING THROUGH AS THE ELONGATED SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
EAST. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS...AND CAUSE DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN. COULD ALSO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A T-STORM IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

TODAY...BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
VERY WARM...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIMITED CAPE BUT
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE QUICK T-STORMS TO POP
UP...AND WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A FEW
STORMS...THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF IN DURATION. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
/25 TO 30 DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS/...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND. HIGHS MID 60S TO NEAR
60...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE AND ALONG THE ARROWHEAD WHERE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 40S TO 50S.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...WINDY...COOL...AND DRY. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND EVEN A BIT OF SBCAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO 20 TO 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE
TEENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL GENERALLY BE COOL NW FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY AND COULD BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SHOWING A SOME SHOWERS AND
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MIGHT LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
AFFECT KHYR AND POSSIBLY KDLH UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE
TERMINALS TO GET VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS TO SWITCH FROM GUSTY SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING THROUGH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY FOR KDLH AND KHYR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTION AND WIND SHEAR IN
THE FIRST 2KFT. OVERNIGHT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALSO BE WEAK
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
AND 2KFT WINDS APPROACHING 40KTS...BUT OUT OF THE SAME DIRECTION. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND SEE IF MODEL FORECASTS ARE STILL INDICATING
THIS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY IS THE
VERY STRONG WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS THAT SHOULD PICK UP BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z TO 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO AROUND 30 KT RANGE.
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER 18Z
WITH MVFR BASES...AND A PERIOD OF CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE. HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES.

A NOTE ON THE MISSING KHIB OBSERVATIONS. THE ASOS IS OPERATING...BUT
UNABLE TO SEND OUT ITS INFORMATION THROUGH NORMAL MEANS. A PHONE
LINE MAY HAVE BEEN POTENTIALLY CUT...SO WE ARE UNABLE TO DIGITALLY
RECEIVE THE OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE USING OCCASIONAL REPORTS
FROM THE AIRPORT MANAGER...AS WELL AS NEARBY OBSERVATIONS AND
OTHER DATA AVAILABLE...TO PROVIDE TAFS AS BEST AS POSSIBLE UNTIL
THE PROBLEM IS RESOLVED. AN AMD NOT SKED REMARK HAS BEEN INCLUDED
IN THE TAF.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  37  59  23  40 /  10  10  10   0
INL  37  51  18  35 /  10  30  20   0
BRD  40  58  23  41 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  44  61  25  42 / 100   0  10  10
ASX  43  62  26  40 /  50   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 10 AM CDT THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WIZ001-002.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 020005
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR LATEST RADAR AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. NEXT SLUG OF
PRECIPITATION IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO PINE
AND BURNETT COUNTIES...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...OTHERWISE A VERY WARM AND WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A DRY
AIRMASS BEHIND...WHICH COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER LOW DEEPENS
OVER SOUTHERN SASK/MANITOBA. AN ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER SRN
SASK/NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ WHERE WINDS OFF THE LAKE
WILL DRASTICALLY LIMIT SFC TEMPS. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND WINDY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING THROUGH AS THE ELONGATED SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
EAST. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS...AND CAUSE DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN. COULD ALSO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A T-STORM IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

TODAY...BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
VERY WARM...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIMITED CAPE BUT
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE QUICK T-STORMS TO POP
UP...AND WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A FEW
STORMS...THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF IN DURATION. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
/25 TO 30 DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS/...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND. HIGHS MID 60S TO NEAR
60...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE AND ALONG THE ARROWHEAD WHERE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 40S TO 50S.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...WINDY...COOL...AND DRY. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND EVEN A BIT OF SBCAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO 20 TO 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE
TEENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL GENERALLY BE COOL NW FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY AND COULD BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SHOWING A SOME SHOWERS AND
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MIGHT LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
AFFECT KHYR AND POSSIBLY KDLH UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE
TERMINALS TO GET VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS TO SWITCH FROM GUSTY SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING THROUGH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY FOR KDLH AND KHYR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTION AND WIND SHEAR IN
THE FIRST 2KFT. OVERNIGHT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALSO BE WEAK
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
AND 2KFT WINDS APPROACHING 40KTS...BUT OUT OF THE SAME DIRECTION. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND SEE IF MODEL FORECASTS ARE STILL INDICATING
THIS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY IS THE
VERY STRONG WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS THAT SHOULD PICK UP BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z TO 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO AROUND 30 KT RANGE.
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER 18Z
WITH MVFR BASES...AND A PERIOD OF CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE. HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES.

A NOTE ON THE MISSING KHIB OBSERVATIONS. THE ASOS IS OPERATING...BUT
UNABLE TO SEND OUT ITS INFORMATION THROUGH NORMAL MEANS. A PHONE
LINE MAY HAVE BEEN POTENTIALLY CUT...SO WE ARE UNABLE TO DIGITALLY
RECEIVE THE OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE USING OCCASIONAL REPORTS
FROM THE AIRPORT MANAGER...AS WELL AS NEARBY OBSERVATIONS AND
OTHER DATA AVAILABLE...TO PROVIDE TAFS AS BEST AS POSSIBLE UNTIL
THE PROBLEM IS RESOLVED. AN AMD NOT SKED REMARK HAS BEEN INCLUDED
IN THE TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  59  23  40 /  10  10  10   0
INL  37  51  18  35 /  10  30  20   0
BRD  40  58  23  41 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  44  61  25  42 /  70   0  10  10
ASX  43  62  26  40 /  40   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 020005
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR LATEST RADAR AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. NEXT SLUG OF
PRECIPITATION IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO PINE
AND BURNETT COUNTIES...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...OTHERWISE A VERY WARM AND WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A DRY
AIRMASS BEHIND...WHICH COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER LOW DEEPENS
OVER SOUTHERN SASK/MANITOBA. AN ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER SRN
SASK/NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ WHERE WINDS OFF THE LAKE
WILL DRASTICALLY LIMIT SFC TEMPS. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND WINDY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING THROUGH AS THE ELONGATED SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
EAST. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS...AND CAUSE DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN. COULD ALSO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A T-STORM IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

TODAY...BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
VERY WARM...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIMITED CAPE BUT
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE QUICK T-STORMS TO POP
UP...AND WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A FEW
STORMS...THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF IN DURATION. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
/25 TO 30 DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS/...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND. HIGHS MID 60S TO NEAR
60...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE AND ALONG THE ARROWHEAD WHERE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 40S TO 50S.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...WINDY...COOL...AND DRY. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND EVEN A BIT OF SBCAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO 20 TO 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE
TEENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL GENERALLY BE COOL NW FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY AND COULD BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SHOWING A SOME SHOWERS AND
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MIGHT LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
AFFECT KHYR AND POSSIBLY KDLH UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE
TERMINALS TO GET VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS TO SWITCH FROM GUSTY SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING THROUGH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY FOR KDLH AND KHYR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTION AND WIND SHEAR IN
THE FIRST 2KFT. OVERNIGHT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALSO BE WEAK
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
AND 2KFT WINDS APPROACHING 40KTS...BUT OUT OF THE SAME DIRECTION. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND SEE IF MODEL FORECASTS ARE STILL INDICATING
THIS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY IS THE
VERY STRONG WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS THAT SHOULD PICK UP BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z TO 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO AROUND 30 KT RANGE.
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER 18Z
WITH MVFR BASES...AND A PERIOD OF CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE. HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES.

A NOTE ON THE MISSING KHIB OBSERVATIONS. THE ASOS IS OPERATING...BUT
UNABLE TO SEND OUT ITS INFORMATION THROUGH NORMAL MEANS. A PHONE
LINE MAY HAVE BEEN POTENTIALLY CUT...SO WE ARE UNABLE TO DIGITALLY
RECEIVE THE OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE USING OCCASIONAL REPORTS
FROM THE AIRPORT MANAGER...AS WELL AS NEARBY OBSERVATIONS AND
OTHER DATA AVAILABLE...TO PROVIDE TAFS AS BEST AS POSSIBLE UNTIL
THE PROBLEM IS RESOLVED. AN AMD NOT SKED REMARK HAS BEEN INCLUDED
IN THE TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  59  23  40 /  10  10  10   0
INL  37  51  18  35 /  10  30  20   0
BRD  40  58  23  41 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  44  61  25  42 /  70   0  10  10
ASX  43  62  26  40 /  40   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 020005
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR LATEST RADAR AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS. NEXT SLUG OF
PRECIPITATION IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOW MOVING INTO PINE
AND BURNETT COUNTIES...AND ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-
NORTHEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW AS WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...OTHERWISE A VERY WARM AND WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A DRY
AIRMASS BEHIND...WHICH COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER LOW DEEPENS
OVER SOUTHERN SASK/MANITOBA. AN ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER SRN
SASK/NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ WHERE WINDS OFF THE LAKE
WILL DRASTICALLY LIMIT SFC TEMPS. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND WINDY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING THROUGH AS THE ELONGATED SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
EAST. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS...AND CAUSE DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN. COULD ALSO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A T-STORM IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

TODAY...BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
VERY WARM...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIMITED CAPE BUT
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE QUICK T-STORMS TO POP
UP...AND WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A FEW
STORMS...THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF IN DURATION. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
/25 TO 30 DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS/...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND. HIGHS MID 60S TO NEAR
60...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE AND ALONG THE ARROWHEAD WHERE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 40S TO 50S.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...WINDY...COOL...AND DRY. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND EVEN A BIT OF SBCAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO 20 TO 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE
TEENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL GENERALLY BE COOL NW FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY AND COULD BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SHOWING A SOME SHOWERS AND
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MIGHT LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 704 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO
AFFECT KHYR AND POSSIBLY KDLH UNTIL 03Z THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE
TERMINALS TO GET VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS. WINDS TO SWITCH FROM GUSTY SOUTHEAST THIS
EVENING THROUGH SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST TO WEST AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
SWEEPS THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...MAINLY FOR KDLH AND KHYR STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL PRODUCE
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTION AND WIND SHEAR IN
THE FIRST 2KFT. OVERNIGHT WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT MAY ALSO BE WEAK
ENOUGH FOR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WITH SURFACE WINDS AROUND 10 KTS
AND 2KFT WINDS APPROACHING 40KTS...BUT OUT OF THE SAME DIRECTION. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR THIS AND SEE IF MODEL FORECASTS ARE STILL INDICATING
THIS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY IS THE
VERY STRONG WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS THAT SHOULD PICK UP BETWEEN 15Z
AND 18Z TO 15 TO 20KTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO AROUND 30 KT RANGE.
SHOWERS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER 18Z
WITH MVFR BASES...AND A PERIOD OF CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE. HAVE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING AND LOCATION UNCERTAINTIES.

A NOTE ON THE MISSING KHIB OBSERVATIONS. THE ASOS IS OPERATING...BUT
UNABLE TO SEND OUT ITS INFORMATION THROUGH NORMAL MEANS. A PHONE
LINE MAY HAVE BEEN POTENTIALLY CUT...SO WE ARE UNABLE TO DIGITALLY
RECEIVE THE OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE USING OCCASIONAL REPORTS
FROM THE AIRPORT MANAGER...AS WELL AS NEARBY OBSERVATIONS AND
OTHER DATA AVAILABLE...TO PROVIDE TAFS AS BEST AS POSSIBLE UNTIL
THE PROBLEM IS RESOLVED. AN AMD NOT SKED REMARK HAS BEEN INCLUDED
IN THE TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  59  23  40 /  10  10  10   0
INL  37  51  18  35 /  10  30  20   0
BRD  40  58  23  41 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  44  61  25  42 /  70   0  10  10
ASX  43  62  26  40 /  40   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...LE










000
FXUS63 KDLH 012024
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...OTHERWISE A VERY WARM AND WINDY DAY ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND. A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A DRY
AIRMASS BEHIND...WHICH COMBINED WITH BREEZY WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL LEAD TO NEAR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION ON THURSDAY.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST THIS MORNING AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH/UPPER LOW DEEPENS
OVER SOUTHERN SASK/MANITOBA. AN ELONGATED SFC LOW OVER SRN
SASK/NORTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA TODAY...WITH A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHEAST THIS
AFTERNOON. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT WILL ALLOW
FOR WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT NEAR LAKE
SUPERIOR /ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ WHERE WINDS OFF THE LAKE
WILL DRASTICALLY LIMIT SFC TEMPS. THIS EVENING A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST WITH A DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS BEHIND IT.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND WINDY WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT/PUSH OF
COLDER AIR MOVING THROUGH AS THE ELONGATED SFC LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES
EAST. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE MID-LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
WINDY CONDITIONS...AND CAUSE DRIER AIR TO MIX DOWN. COULD ALSO SEE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY EVEN A T-STORM IN THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON ON THURSDAY.

TODAY...BREEZY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.
VERY WARM...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY FROM THE INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN MINNESOTA EAST ACROSS
MOST OF NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. LIMITED CAPE BUT
STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL CAUSE QUICK T-STORMS TO POP
UP...AND WHILE THERE IS SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR TO MAINTAIN A FEW
STORMS...THE MAJORITY OF STORMS WILL BE FAIRLY BRIEF IN DURATION. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS
/25 TO 30 DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS/...WHICH WILL LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL THAT CAN REACH THE GROUND. HIGHS MID 60S TO NEAR
60...EXCEPT BY THE LAKE AND ALONG THE ARROWHEAD WHERE WINDS OFF THE
LAKE WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 40S TO 50S.

TONIGHT...SHOWERS MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WITH CLEARING
SKIES IN NORTHERN MINNESOTA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. WEST WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID
30S TO MID 40S...WARMEST OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN.

THURSDAY...WINDY...COOL...AND DRY. WEST WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. WITH VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES
AND EVEN A BIT OF SBCAPE WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED
HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM. THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THURSDAY WILL BE FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES DROP TO 20 TO 25
PERCENT IN PARTS OF EASTERN MINNESOTA...AND POSSIBLY EVEN INTO THE
TEENS OVER NORTHWEST WISCONSIN. SEE THE LATEST FIRE WEATHER FORECAST
FOR MORE DETAILS.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE NORTHLAND CAN EXPECT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THERE WILL GENERALLY BE COOL NW FLOW THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A WEAK LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SATURDAY AND COULD BRING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW TO PARTS OF
THE NORTHLAND. THE ECMWF AND GEM ARE SHOWING A SOME SHOWERS AND
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY NEAR THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MIGHT LIFT INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BRING A MUCH
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHLAND DURING THE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY TIMEFRAME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS IS A NOTE ON THE MISSING KHIB OBSERVATIONS. THE ASOS IS
OPERATING...BUT UNABLE TO SEND OUT ITS INFORMATION THROUGH NORMAL
MEANS. A PHONE LINE MAY HAVE BEEN POTENTIALLY CUT...SO WE ARE
UNABLE TO DIGITALLY RECEIVE THE OBSERVATIONS. THE ISSUE IS OUT OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANDS...SO HOPEFULLY THE PHONE LINE
OR WHATEVER ISSUE IT IS WILL BE REPAIRED SOON. IN THE
MEANTIME...HAVE BEEN CONTACT WITH THE KHIB AIRPORT MANAGER WHO CAN
PROVIDE US OVER THE PHONE WITH OBSERVATIONS BEING REPORTED BY THE
ASOS BY LISTENING TO ITS SHORT RANGE RADIO. WE WILL BE USING THE
OCCASIONAL REPORTS FROM THE AIRPORT MANAGER...AS WELL AS NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE...TO PROVIDE TAFS AS BEST AS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE PROBLEM CAN BE RESOLVED.

THERE WERE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND GUSTY SSE WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION FOR WIND DIRECTION WAS AT KDLH WHICH HAD EAST WINDS DUE
TO THE WIND COMING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR KINL/KHIB/KBRD/KHYR WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA BORDER MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE KDLH AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE EASTERLY WINDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING S TO SSW WINDS ALOFT. ADDED LLWS TO KDLH FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR THAT WILL BE CAUSED BY THE SSW WINDS
OF 40 KNOTS THAT WILL DEVELOP BELOW 2 KFT AND THE EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING NEAR KDLH AND KHYR. THE KHYR AREA HAS A MUCH BETTER
CHANCE OF GETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN KDLH. THERE COULD BE
VERY BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ADDED LLWS
FOR KHYR THIS EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG SSW WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS.
THE LLWS ISSUES SHOULD LESSEN LATER TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. PREPARE FOR AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO WESTERLY WINDS.

THE WEST TO WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  39  59  23  40 /  10  10  10   0
INL  37  51  18  35 /  10  30  20   0
BRD  40  58  23  41 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  44  61  25  42 /  70   0  10  10
ASX  43  62  26  40 /  40   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 011752 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

AT 330 AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SHORE TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
EAST...BRINGING FOG TO COASTAL AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SURFACE OBSERVATION REFLECTION...BUT KDLH RADAR IS
INDICATING A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN RETURNS. COULD BE MAINLY VIRGA
OR SOME SPRINKLES AT THIS POINT...WHICH FAIRLY CLOSELY MATCHES THE
HRRR AND IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND WAA.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN NW WI. ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S AND 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...BRINGING
A BIT OF A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION. SOME
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NW WI.

ON THURSDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY...AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 700 MB. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF MINNESOTA WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PLENTY OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONUS AND A RIDGE OUT WEST...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTRAL BY LATE WEEKEND. FINALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
OUT WEST WILL MOVE A BIT EAST BY MID WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALONG
A PORTION OF THE SOUTH SHORE. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MUCH
COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A MIX WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIME IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN ALL THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

AT THIS TIME WE HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS IS A NOTE ON THE MISSING KHIB OBSERVATIONS. THE ASOS IS
OPERATING...BUT UNABLE TO SEND OUT ITS INFORMATION THROUGH NORMAL
MEANS. A PHONE LINE MAY HAVE BEEN POTENTIALLY CUT...SO WE ARE
UNABLE TO DIGITALLY RECEIVE THE OBSERVATIONS. THE ISSUE IS OUT OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANDS...SO HOPEFULLY THE PHONE LINE
OR WHATEVER ISSUE IT IS WILL BE REPAIRED SOON. IN THE
MEANTIME...HAVE BEEN CONTACT WITH THE KHIB AIRPORT MANAGER WHO CAN
PROVIDE US OVER THE PHONE WITH OBSERVATIONS BEING REPORTED BY THE
ASOS BY LISTENING TO ITS SHORT RANGE RADIO. WE WILL BE USING THE
OCCASIONAL REPORTS FROM THE AIRPORT MANAGER...AS WELL AS NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE...TO PROVIDE TAFS AS BEST AS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE PROBLEM CAN BE RESOLVED.

THERE WERE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND GUSTY SSE WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION FOR WIND DIRECTION WAS AT KDLH WHICH HAD EAST WINDS DUE
TO THE WIND COMING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR KINL/KHIB/KBRD/KHYR WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA BORDER MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE KDLH AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE EASTERLY WINDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING S TO SSW WINDS ALOFT. ADDED LLWS TO KDLH FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR THAT WILL BE CAUSED BY THE SSW WINDS
OF 40 KNOTS THAT WILL DEVELOP BELOW 2 KFT AND THE EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING NEAR KDLH AND KHYR. THE KHYR AREA HAS A MUCH BETTER
CHANCE OF GETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN KDLH. THERE COULD BE
VERY BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ADDED LLWS
FOR KHYR THIS EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG SSW WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS.
THE LLWS ISSUES SHOULD LESSEN LATER TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. PREPARE FOR AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO WESTERLY WINDS.

THE WEST TO WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  41  60  24 /  30  30  10  10
INL  64  40  53  19 /  20  10  30  20
BRD  71  38  57  24 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  68  43  61  26 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  65  44  63  28 /  40  50   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 011752 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

AT 330 AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SHORE TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
EAST...BRINGING FOG TO COASTAL AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SURFACE OBSERVATION REFLECTION...BUT KDLH RADAR IS
INDICATING A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN RETURNS. COULD BE MAINLY VIRGA
OR SOME SPRINKLES AT THIS POINT...WHICH FAIRLY CLOSELY MATCHES THE
HRRR AND IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND WAA.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN NW WI. ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S AND 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...BRINGING
A BIT OF A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION. SOME
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NW WI.

ON THURSDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY...AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 700 MB. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF MINNESOTA WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PLENTY OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONUS AND A RIDGE OUT WEST...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTRAL BY LATE WEEKEND. FINALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
OUT WEST WILL MOVE A BIT EAST BY MID WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALONG
A PORTION OF THE SOUTH SHORE. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MUCH
COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A MIX WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIME IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN ALL THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

AT THIS TIME WE HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS IS A NOTE ON THE MISSING KHIB OBSERVATIONS. THE ASOS IS
OPERATING...BUT UNABLE TO SEND OUT ITS INFORMATION THROUGH NORMAL
MEANS. A PHONE LINE MAY HAVE BEEN POTENTIALLY CUT...SO WE ARE
UNABLE TO DIGITALLY RECEIVE THE OBSERVATIONS. THE ISSUE IS OUT OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANDS...SO HOPEFULLY THE PHONE LINE
OR WHATEVER ISSUE IT IS WILL BE REPAIRED SOON. IN THE
MEANTIME...HAVE BEEN CONTACT WITH THE KHIB AIRPORT MANAGER WHO CAN
PROVIDE US OVER THE PHONE WITH OBSERVATIONS BEING REPORTED BY THE
ASOS BY LISTENING TO ITS SHORT RANGE RADIO. WE WILL BE USING THE
OCCASIONAL REPORTS FROM THE AIRPORT MANAGER...AS WELL AS NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE...TO PROVIDE TAFS AS BEST AS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE PROBLEM CAN BE RESOLVED.

THERE WERE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND GUSTY SSE WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION FOR WIND DIRECTION WAS AT KDLH WHICH HAD EAST WINDS DUE
TO THE WIND COMING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR KINL/KHIB/KBRD/KHYR WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA BORDER MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE KDLH AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE EASTERLY WINDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING S TO SSW WINDS ALOFT. ADDED LLWS TO KDLH FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR THAT WILL BE CAUSED BY THE SSW WINDS
OF 40 KNOTS THAT WILL DEVELOP BELOW 2 KFT AND THE EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING NEAR KDLH AND KHYR. THE KHYR AREA HAS A MUCH BETTER
CHANCE OF GETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN KDLH. THERE COULD BE
VERY BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ADDED LLWS
FOR KHYR THIS EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG SSW WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS.
THE LLWS ISSUES SHOULD LESSEN LATER TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. PREPARE FOR AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO WESTERLY WINDS.

THE WEST TO WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  41  60  24 /  30  30  10  10
INL  64  40  53  19 /  20  10  30  20
BRD  71  38  57  24 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  68  43  61  26 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  65  44  63  28 /  40  50   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 011752 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

AT 330 AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SHORE TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
EAST...BRINGING FOG TO COASTAL AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SURFACE OBSERVATION REFLECTION...BUT KDLH RADAR IS
INDICATING A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN RETURNS. COULD BE MAINLY VIRGA
OR SOME SPRINKLES AT THIS POINT...WHICH FAIRLY CLOSELY MATCHES THE
HRRR AND IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND WAA.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN NW WI. ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S AND 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...BRINGING
A BIT OF A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION. SOME
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NW WI.

ON THURSDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY...AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 700 MB. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF MINNESOTA WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PLENTY OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONUS AND A RIDGE OUT WEST...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTRAL BY LATE WEEKEND. FINALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
OUT WEST WILL MOVE A BIT EAST BY MID WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALONG
A PORTION OF THE SOUTH SHORE. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MUCH
COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A MIX WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIME IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN ALL THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

AT THIS TIME WE HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS IS A NOTE ON THE MISSING KHIB OBSERVATIONS. THE ASOS IS
OPERATING...BUT UNABLE TO SEND OUT ITS INFORMATION THROUGH NORMAL
MEANS. A PHONE LINE MAY HAVE BEEN POTENTIALLY CUT...SO WE ARE
UNABLE TO DIGITALLY RECEIVE THE OBSERVATIONS. THE ISSUE IS OUT OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANDS...SO HOPEFULLY THE PHONE LINE
OR WHATEVER ISSUE IT IS WILL BE REPAIRED SOON. IN THE
MEANTIME...HAVE BEEN CONTACT WITH THE KHIB AIRPORT MANAGER WHO CAN
PROVIDE US OVER THE PHONE WITH OBSERVATIONS BEING REPORTED BY THE
ASOS BY LISTENING TO ITS SHORT RANGE RADIO. WE WILL BE USING THE
OCCASIONAL REPORTS FROM THE AIRPORT MANAGER...AS WELL AS NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE...TO PROVIDE TAFS AS BEST AS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE PROBLEM CAN BE RESOLVED.

THERE WERE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND GUSTY SSE WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION FOR WIND DIRECTION WAS AT KDLH WHICH HAD EAST WINDS DUE
TO THE WIND COMING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR KINL/KHIB/KBRD/KHYR WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA BORDER MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE KDLH AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE EASTERLY WINDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING S TO SSW WINDS ALOFT. ADDED LLWS TO KDLH FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR THAT WILL BE CAUSED BY THE SSW WINDS
OF 40 KNOTS THAT WILL DEVELOP BELOW 2 KFT AND THE EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING NEAR KDLH AND KHYR. THE KHYR AREA HAS A MUCH BETTER
CHANCE OF GETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN KDLH. THERE COULD BE
VERY BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ADDED LLWS
FOR KHYR THIS EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG SSW WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS.
THE LLWS ISSUES SHOULD LESSEN LATER TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. PREPARE FOR AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO WESTERLY WINDS.

THE WEST TO WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  41  60  24 /  30  30  10  10
INL  64  40  53  19 /  20  10  30  20
BRD  71  38  57  24 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  68  43  61  26 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  65  44  63  28 /  40  50   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI







000
FXUS63 KDLH 011752 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

AT 330 AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SHORE TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
EAST...BRINGING FOG TO COASTAL AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SURFACE OBSERVATION REFLECTION...BUT KDLH RADAR IS
INDICATING A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN RETURNS. COULD BE MAINLY VIRGA
OR SOME SPRINKLES AT THIS POINT...WHICH FAIRLY CLOSELY MATCHES THE
HRRR AND IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND WAA.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN NW WI. ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S AND 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...BRINGING
A BIT OF A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION. SOME
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NW WI.

ON THURSDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY...AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 700 MB. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF MINNESOTA WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PLENTY OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONUS AND A RIDGE OUT WEST...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTRAL BY LATE WEEKEND. FINALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
OUT WEST WILL MOVE A BIT EAST BY MID WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALONG
A PORTION OF THE SOUTH SHORE. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MUCH
COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A MIX WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIME IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN ALL THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

AT THIS TIME WE HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THIS IS A NOTE ON THE MISSING KHIB OBSERVATIONS. THE ASOS IS
OPERATING...BUT UNABLE TO SEND OUT ITS INFORMATION THROUGH NORMAL
MEANS. A PHONE LINE MAY HAVE BEEN POTENTIALLY CUT...SO WE ARE
UNABLE TO DIGITALLY RECEIVE THE OBSERVATIONS. THE ISSUE IS OUT OF
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANDS...SO HOPEFULLY THE PHONE LINE
OR WHATEVER ISSUE IT IS WILL BE REPAIRED SOON. IN THE
MEANTIME...HAVE BEEN CONTACT WITH THE KHIB AIRPORT MANAGER WHO CAN
PROVIDE US OVER THE PHONE WITH OBSERVATIONS BEING REPORTED BY THE
ASOS BY LISTENING TO ITS SHORT RANGE RADIO. WE WILL BE USING THE
OCCASIONAL REPORTS FROM THE AIRPORT MANAGER...AS WELL AS NEARBY
OBSERVATIONS AND OTHER DATA AVAILABLE...TO PROVIDE TAFS AS BEST AS
POSSIBLE UNTIL THE PROBLEM CAN BE RESOLVED.

THERE WERE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH CLOUDS AND GUSTY SSE WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION FOR WIND DIRECTION WAS AT KDLH WHICH HAD EAST WINDS DUE
TO THE WIND COMING OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE SOUTHERLY WINDS FOR KINL/KHIB/KBRD/KHYR WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE NORTH DAKOTA AND
MINNESOTA BORDER MOVES INTO THE REGION. THE KDLH AREA WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE EASTERLY WINDS FROM LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT THERE
WILL BE INCREASING S TO SSW WINDS ALOFT. ADDED LLWS TO KDLH FOR
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING DUE TO SUBSTANTIAL
DIRECTIONAL AND SPEED SHEAR THAT WILL BE CAUSED BY THE SSW WINDS
OF 40 KNOTS THAT WILL DEVELOP BELOW 2 KFT AND THE EASTERLY SURFACE
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING NEAR KDLH AND KHYR. THE KHYR AREA HAS A MUCH BETTER
CHANCE OF GETTING SHOWERS AND STORMS THAN KDLH. THERE COULD BE
VERY BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS. ADDED LLWS
FOR KHYR THIS EVENING DUE TO THE STRONG SSW WINDS AROUND 50 KNOTS.
THE LLWS ISSUES SHOULD LESSEN LATER TONIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING FROM WEST TO EAST. PREPARE FOR AN
ABRUPT CHANGE TO WESTERLY WINDS.

THE WEST TO WSW WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY LATE THURSDAY
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  41  60  24 /  30  30  10  10
INL  64  40  53  19 /  20  10  30  20
BRD  71  38  57  24 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  68  43  61  26 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  65  44  63  28 /  40  50   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     LSZ140>145.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI








000
FXUS63 KDLH 011201
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
701 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

AT 330 AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SHORE TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
EAST...BRINGING FOG TO COASTAL AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SURFACE OBSERVATION REFLECTION...BUT KDLH RADAR IS
INDICATING A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN RETURNS. COULD BE MAINLY VIRGA
OR SOME SPRINKLES AT THIS POINT...WHICH FAIRLY CLOSELY MATCHES THE
HRRR AND IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND WAA.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN NW WI. ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S AND 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...BRINGING
A BIT OF A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION. SOME
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NW WI.

ON THURSDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY...AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 700 MB. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF MINNESOTA WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PLENTY OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONUS AND A RIDGE OUT WEST...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTRAL BY LATE WEEKEND. FINALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
OUT WEST WILL MOVE A BIT EAST BY MID WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALONG
A PORTION OF THE SOUTH SHORE. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MUCH
COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A MIX WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIME IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN ALL THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

AT THIS TIME WE HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR IN
STRATUS AND FOG...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FURTHER INLAND. WE FOLLOWED
THE RAP THIS MORNING REGARDING THE STRATUS...AND IT SHOWS IT
DIMINISHING AT KDLH 14-15Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
WITH THAT TIMING THOUGH AS SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME LIGHT MIXED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WERE
MOVING ACROSS PART OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA/FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF STRONG WAA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WE
CONFINED THE POPS TO KDLH/KHYR/KHIB AS MOST AGREES ON KEEPING
WESTERN AREAS DRY.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...THEN THEY WILL VEER
TO MORE WEST/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  41  60  24 /  20  20  10  10
INL  65  40  53  19 /  20  10  30  20
BRD  70  38  57  24 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  66  43  61  26 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  64  44  63  28 /  40  50   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 011201
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
701 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

AT 330 AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SHORE TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
EAST...BRINGING FOG TO COASTAL AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SURFACE OBSERVATION REFLECTION...BUT KDLH RADAR IS
INDICATING A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN RETURNS. COULD BE MAINLY VIRGA
OR SOME SPRINKLES AT THIS POINT...WHICH FAIRLY CLOSELY MATCHES THE
HRRR AND IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND WAA.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN NW WI. ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S AND 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...BRINGING
A BIT OF A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION. SOME
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NW WI.

ON THURSDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY...AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 700 MB. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF MINNESOTA WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PLENTY OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONUS AND A RIDGE OUT WEST...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTRAL BY LATE WEEKEND. FINALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
OUT WEST WILL MOVE A BIT EAST BY MID WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALONG
A PORTION OF THE SOUTH SHORE. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MUCH
COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A MIX WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIME IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN ALL THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

AT THIS TIME WE HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 701 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

IFR OR LIFR CONDITIONS WERE OCCURRING AROUND LAKE SUPERIOR IN
STRATUS AND FOG...WITH VFR CONDITIONS FURTHER INLAND. WE FOLLOWED
THE RAP THIS MORNING REGARDING THE STRATUS...AND IT SHOWS IT
DIMINISHING AT KDLH 14-15Z. CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH
WITH THAT TIMING THOUGH AS SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. SOME LIGHT MIXED SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS WERE
MOVING ACROSS PART OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA/FAR NORTHERN WISCONSIN
THIS MORNING IN AN AREA OF STRONG WAA.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WE
CONFINED THE POPS TO KDLH/KHYR/KHIB AS MOST AGREES ON KEEPING
WESTERN AREAS DRY.

GUSTY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL OCCUR TODAY...THEN THEY WILL VEER
TO MORE WEST/NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  41  60  24 /  20  20  10  10
INL  65  40  53  19 /  20  10  30  20
BRD  70  38  57  24 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  66  43  61  26 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  64  44  63  28 /  40  50   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...MELDE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 010847
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

AT 330 AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SHORE TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
EAST...BRINGING FOG TO COASTAL AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SURFACE OBSERVATION REFLECTION...BUT KDLH RADAR IS
INDICATING A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN RETURNS. COULD BE MAINLY VIRGA
OR SOME SPRINKLES AT THIS POINT...WHICH FAIRLY CLOSELY MATCHES THE
HRRR AND IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND WAA.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN NW WI. ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S AND 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...BRINGING
A BIT OF A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION. SOME
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NW WI.

ON THURSDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY...AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 700 MB. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF MINNESOTA WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PLENTY OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONUS AND A RIDGE OUT WEST...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTRAL BY LATE WEEKEND. FINALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
OUT WEST WILL MOVE A BIT EAST BY MID WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALONG
A PORTION OF THE SOUTH SHORE. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MUCH
COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A MIX WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIME IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN ALL THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

AT THIS TIME WE HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS AFTER 12Z. KDLH TO BE AFFECTED BY NORTHEAST FLOW AND IFR STRATUS
FLOWING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 14Z...WHEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH IT BACK
NORTHEAST.  TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AFTER 18Z SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF KDLH AND KHYR. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
BUT UNLIKELY AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINAL FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.  A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH BEHIND SHOWERS GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  41  60  24 /  20  20  10  10
INL  65  40  53  19 /  10  10  30  20
BRD  70  38  57  24 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  66  43  61  26 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  64  44  63  28 /  40  50   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 010847
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

AT 330 AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SHORE TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
EAST...BRINGING FOG TO COASTAL AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SURFACE OBSERVATION REFLECTION...BUT KDLH RADAR IS
INDICATING A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN RETURNS. COULD BE MAINLY VIRGA
OR SOME SPRINKLES AT THIS POINT...WHICH FAIRLY CLOSELY MATCHES THE
HRRR AND IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND WAA.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN NW WI. ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S AND 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...BRINGING
A BIT OF A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION. SOME
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NW WI.

ON THURSDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY...AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 700 MB. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF MINNESOTA WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PLENTY OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONUS AND A RIDGE OUT WEST...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTRAL BY LATE WEEKEND. FINALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
OUT WEST WILL MOVE A BIT EAST BY MID WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALONG
A PORTION OF THE SOUTH SHORE. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MUCH
COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A MIX WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIME IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN ALL THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

AT THIS TIME WE HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS AFTER 12Z. KDLH TO BE AFFECTED BY NORTHEAST FLOW AND IFR STRATUS
FLOWING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 14Z...WHEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH IT BACK
NORTHEAST.  TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AFTER 18Z SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF KDLH AND KHYR. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
BUT UNLIKELY AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINAL FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.  A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH BEHIND SHOWERS GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  41  60  24 /  20  20  10  10
INL  65  40  53  19 /  10  10  30  20
BRD  70  38  57  24 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  66  43  61  26 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  64  44  63  28 /  40  50   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 010847
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

AT 330 AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SHORE TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
EAST...BRINGING FOG TO COASTAL AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SURFACE OBSERVATION REFLECTION...BUT KDLH RADAR IS
INDICATING A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN RETURNS. COULD BE MAINLY VIRGA
OR SOME SPRINKLES AT THIS POINT...WHICH FAIRLY CLOSELY MATCHES THE
HRRR AND IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND WAA.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN NW WI. ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S AND 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...BRINGING
A BIT OF A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION. SOME
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NW WI.

ON THURSDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY...AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 700 MB. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF MINNESOTA WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PLENTY OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONUS AND A RIDGE OUT WEST...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTRAL BY LATE WEEKEND. FINALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
OUT WEST WILL MOVE A BIT EAST BY MID WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALONG
A PORTION OF THE SOUTH SHORE. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MUCH
COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A MIX WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIME IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN ALL THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

AT THIS TIME WE HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS AFTER 12Z. KDLH TO BE AFFECTED BY NORTHEAST FLOW AND IFR STRATUS
FLOWING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 14Z...WHEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH IT BACK
NORTHEAST.  TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AFTER 18Z SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF KDLH AND KHYR. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
BUT UNLIKELY AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINAL FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.  A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH BEHIND SHOWERS GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  41  60  24 /  20  20  10  10
INL  65  40  53  19 /  10  10  30  20
BRD  70  38  57  24 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  66  43  61  26 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  64  44  63  28 /  40  50   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 010847
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

AT 330 AM...TEMPERATURES RANGED FROM THE MID 20S ALONG PORTIONS OF
THE NORTH SHORE TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S IN THE BRAINERD
LAKES AREA. WINDS HAVE STARTED TO INCREASE FROM THE
EAST...BRINGING FOG TO COASTAL AREAS NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SURFACE OBSERVATION REFLECTION...BUT KDLH RADAR IS
INDICATING A BIT OF AN INCREASE IN RETURNS. COULD BE MAINLY VIRGA
OR SOME SPRINKLES AT THIS POINT...WHICH FAIRLY CLOSELY MATCHES THE
HRRR AND IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG FGEN AND WAA.

THE MAIN STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE
BEST CHANCE WILL BE IN THE SOUTH AND EAST...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A
FEW STRONGER STORMS IN NW WI. ANY PRECIPITATION BEFORE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE FAIRLY LIGHT AND
SPOTTY. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BRING AREAS OF LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG TO COASTAL LAKE SUPERIOR. TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE
FROM THE 40S AND 50S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR TO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA.

TONIGHT...A DRY SLOT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA...BRINGING
A BIT OF A BREAK IN CLOUD COVER AND EVENTUALLY PRECIPITATION. SOME
STORMS COULD LINGER INTO THE EVENING ACROSS NW WI.

ON THURSDAY...THE BIG STORY WILL BE STRONG WINDS. HAVE INCREASED
WINDS AND WIND GUSTS FOR THURSDAY...AS WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO
EFFICIENTLY MIX DOWN FROM AROUND 700 MB. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
50S TO AROUND 60. A COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF MINNESOTA WILL BRING FALLING TEMPERATURES FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN MN DURING THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL ALSO BRING
SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS PLENTY OF
MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF.

THE UPPER PATTERN WILL FEATURE A TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE
CONUS AND A RIDGE OUT WEST...THIS WILL TRANSITION TO A LOW AMPLITUDE
RIDGE CENTRAL BY LATE WEEKEND. FINALLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK A TROUGH
OUT WEST WILL MOVE A BIT EAST BY MID WEEK.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIP ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND ALONG
A PORTION OF THE SOUTH SHORE. FRIDAY WILL BE MAINLY DRY AND MUCH
COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
FRIDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE FOR SNOW OR A MIX WILL OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH LIGHT ACCUMULATION EXPECTED.

THE MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY LATER IN THE WEEKEND. WE HAVE A
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE
DURING THIS TIME IS LOWER THAN NORMAL GIVEN ALL THE MODEL
UNCERTAINTY.

AT THIS TIME WE HAVE TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MOST
OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS AFTER 12Z. KDLH TO BE AFFECTED BY NORTHEAST FLOW AND IFR STRATUS
FLOWING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 14Z...WHEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH IT BACK
NORTHEAST.  TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AFTER 18Z SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF KDLH AND KHYR. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
BUT UNLIKELY AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINAL FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.  A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH BEHIND SHOWERS GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  58  41  60  24 /  20  20  10  10
INL  65  40  53  19 /  10  10  30  20
BRD  70  38  57  24 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  66  43  61  26 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  64  44  63  28 /  40  50   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR MNZ011-012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...MELDE
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 010526
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME QUICK UPDATES
TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 330 PM...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
FROM WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15
MPH NW WINDS. SKIES WERE PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 50S...EXCEPT THE 40S IN THE NORTHERN ARROWHEAD WHERE THERE
WAS LINGERING BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST. EASTERLY AND
THEN SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
LOW AND MIDDLE 30S OVER THE WEST WHERE THE WINDS WILL BOLSTER THE
TEMPERATURES.

THERE COULD BE FOG AND MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN ALONG THE FAR NORTH
SHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE HUMID WINDS
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO
THE NE AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING EAST
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. STRONG...WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 15
TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EASTERLY TO NE FLOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE NORTH SHORE AND DULUTH AREA CLOSE TO LAKE
SUPERIOR MUCH COOLER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN NE MINNESOTA AND EAST INTO NW
WISCONSIN. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO THE WARM CAP
ALOFT...SO THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANY STRONG STORMS IS VERY LOW
BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
RACING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS TAPER OFF QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A LOT MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...ALONG WITH STEEP LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW BUT NOTABLE VALUES OF CAPE. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE GOOD LARGE-SCALE FORCING HAVE LEAD TO
INCREASED POPS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM THE WEEKEND
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY THOUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
COULD BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OUR WAY. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLORADO LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE MILD LATE IN THE WEEK
TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS AFTER 12Z. KDLH TO BE AFFECTED BY NORTHEAST FLOW AND IFR STRATUS
FLOWING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 14Z...WHEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH IT BACK
NORTHEAST.  TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AFTER 18Z SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF KDLH AND KHYR. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
BUT UNLIKELY AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINAL FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.  A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH BEHIND SHOWERS GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  55  25  42 /  20  10  10  10
INL  39  47  20  39 /  20  30  20   0
BRD  41  53  24  43 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  43  58  27  43 /  60   0   0  10
ASX  42  58  28  41 /  40   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 010526
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME QUICK UPDATES
TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 330 PM...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
FROM WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15
MPH NW WINDS. SKIES WERE PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 50S...EXCEPT THE 40S IN THE NORTHERN ARROWHEAD WHERE THERE
WAS LINGERING BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST. EASTERLY AND
THEN SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
LOW AND MIDDLE 30S OVER THE WEST WHERE THE WINDS WILL BOLSTER THE
TEMPERATURES.

THERE COULD BE FOG AND MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN ALONG THE FAR NORTH
SHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE HUMID WINDS
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO
THE NE AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING EAST
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. STRONG...WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 15
TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EASTERLY TO NE FLOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE NORTH SHORE AND DULUTH AREA CLOSE TO LAKE
SUPERIOR MUCH COOLER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN NE MINNESOTA AND EAST INTO NW
WISCONSIN. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO THE WARM CAP
ALOFT...SO THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANY STRONG STORMS IS VERY LOW
BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
RACING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS TAPER OFF QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A LOT MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...ALONG WITH STEEP LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW BUT NOTABLE VALUES OF CAPE. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE GOOD LARGE-SCALE FORCING HAVE LEAD TO
INCREASED POPS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM THE WEEKEND
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY THOUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
COULD BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OUR WAY. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLORADO LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE MILD LATE IN THE WEEK
TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS AFTER 12Z. KDLH TO BE AFFECTED BY NORTHEAST FLOW AND IFR STRATUS
FLOWING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 14Z...WHEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH IT BACK
NORTHEAST.  TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AFTER 18Z SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF KDLH AND KHYR. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
BUT UNLIKELY AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINAL FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.  A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH BEHIND SHOWERS GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  55  25  42 /  20  10  10  10
INL  39  47  20  39 /  20  30  20   0
BRD  41  53  24  43 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  43  58  27  43 /  60   0   0  10
ASX  42  58  28  41 /  40   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 010526
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME QUICK UPDATES
TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 330 PM...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
FROM WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15
MPH NW WINDS. SKIES WERE PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 50S...EXCEPT THE 40S IN THE NORTHERN ARROWHEAD WHERE THERE
WAS LINGERING BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST. EASTERLY AND
THEN SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
LOW AND MIDDLE 30S OVER THE WEST WHERE THE WINDS WILL BOLSTER THE
TEMPERATURES.

THERE COULD BE FOG AND MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN ALONG THE FAR NORTH
SHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE HUMID WINDS
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO
THE NE AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING EAST
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. STRONG...WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 15
TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EASTERLY TO NE FLOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE NORTH SHORE AND DULUTH AREA CLOSE TO LAKE
SUPERIOR MUCH COOLER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN NE MINNESOTA AND EAST INTO NW
WISCONSIN. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO THE WARM CAP
ALOFT...SO THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANY STRONG STORMS IS VERY LOW
BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
RACING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS TAPER OFF QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A LOT MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...ALONG WITH STEEP LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW BUT NOTABLE VALUES OF CAPE. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE GOOD LARGE-SCALE FORCING HAVE LEAD TO
INCREASED POPS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM THE WEEKEND
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY THOUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
COULD BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OUR WAY. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLORADO LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE MILD LATE IN THE WEEK
TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS AFTER 12Z. KDLH TO BE AFFECTED BY NORTHEAST FLOW AND IFR STRATUS
FLOWING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 14Z...WHEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH IT BACK
NORTHEAST.  TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AFTER 18Z SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF KDLH AND KHYR. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
BUT UNLIKELY AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINAL FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.  A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH BEHIND SHOWERS GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  55  25  42 /  20  10  10  10
INL  39  47  20  39 /  20  30  20   0
BRD  41  53  24  43 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  43  58  27  43 /  60   0   0  10
ASX  42  58  28  41 /  40   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 010526
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME QUICK UPDATES
TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 330 PM...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
FROM WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15
MPH NW WINDS. SKIES WERE PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 50S...EXCEPT THE 40S IN THE NORTHERN ARROWHEAD WHERE THERE
WAS LINGERING BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST. EASTERLY AND
THEN SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
LOW AND MIDDLE 30S OVER THE WEST WHERE THE WINDS WILL BOLSTER THE
TEMPERATURES.

THERE COULD BE FOG AND MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN ALONG THE FAR NORTH
SHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE HUMID WINDS
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO
THE NE AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING EAST
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. STRONG...WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 15
TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EASTERLY TO NE FLOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE NORTH SHORE AND DULUTH AREA CLOSE TO LAKE
SUPERIOR MUCH COOLER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN NE MINNESOTA AND EAST INTO NW
WISCONSIN. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO THE WARM CAP
ALOFT...SO THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANY STRONG STORMS IS VERY LOW
BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
RACING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS TAPER OFF QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A LOT MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...ALONG WITH STEEP LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW BUT NOTABLE VALUES OF CAPE. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE GOOD LARGE-SCALE FORCING HAVE LEAD TO
INCREASED POPS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM THE WEEKEND
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY THOUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
COULD BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OUR WAY. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLORADO LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE MILD LATE IN THE WEEK
TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1224 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 20
KTS AFTER 12Z. KDLH TO BE AFFECTED BY NORTHEAST FLOW AND IFR STRATUS
FLOWING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR THROUGH APPROXIMATELY 14Z...WHEN SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE INCOMING STORM SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH IT BACK
NORTHEAST.  TIMING IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. AFTER 18Z SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF KDLH AND KHYR. THUNDER IS ALSO POSSIBLE...
BUT UNLIKELY AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINAL FORECAST FOR NOW. THE
SHOWERS SHOULD BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES.  A COLD FRONT
TO MOVE THROUGH BEHIND SHOWERS GENERALLY BETWEEN 21Z AND 06Z TONIGHT
FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  42  55  25  42 /  20  10  10  10
INL  39  47  20  39 /  20  30  20   0
BRD  41  53  24  43 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  43  58  27  43 /  60   0   0  10
ASX  42  58  28  41 /  40   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 312333
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME QUICK UPDATES
TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 330 PM...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
FROM WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15
MPH NW WINDS. SKIES WERE PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 50S...EXCEPT THE 40S IN THE NORTHERN ARROWHEAD WHERE THERE
WAS LINGERING BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST. EASTERLY AND
THEN SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
LOW AND MIDDLE 30S OVER THE WEST WHERE THE WINDS WILL BOLSTER THE
TEMPERATURES.

THERE COULD BE FOG AND MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN ALONG THE FAR NORTH
SHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE HUMID WINDS
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO
THE NE AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING EAST
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. STRONG...WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 15
TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EASTERLY TO NE FLOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE NORTH SHORE AND DULUTH AREA CLOSE TO LAKE
SUPERIOR MUCH COOLER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN NE MINNESOTA AND EAST INTO NW
WISCONSIN. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO THE WARM CAP
ALOFT...SO THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANY STRONG STORMS IS VERY LOW
BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
RACING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS TAPER OFF QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A LOT MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...ALONG WITH STEEP LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW BUT NOTABLE VALUES OF CAPE. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE GOOD LARGE-SCALE FORCING HAVE LEAD TO
INCREASED POPS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM THE WEEKEND
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY THOUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
COULD BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OUR WAY. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLORADO LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE MILD LATE IN THE WEEK
TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KTS AFTER 12Z. KDLH MAY BE AFFECTED BY A MORE NORTHEAST FLOW
AND SOME MVFR STRATUS FLOWING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. AFTER 18Z SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF KDLH AND KHYR. THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT QUITE UNLIKELY AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINAL
FORECAST FOR NOW. FOR NOW AM EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  57  42  55 /   0  20  20  10
INL  31  63  39  47 /   0   0  20  30
BRD  38  69  41  53 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  32  64  43  58 /   0  50  60   0
ASX  29  62  42  58 /   0  30  40   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 312333
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME QUICK UPDATES
TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 330 PM...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
FROM WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15
MPH NW WINDS. SKIES WERE PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 50S...EXCEPT THE 40S IN THE NORTHERN ARROWHEAD WHERE THERE
WAS LINGERING BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST. EASTERLY AND
THEN SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
LOW AND MIDDLE 30S OVER THE WEST WHERE THE WINDS WILL BOLSTER THE
TEMPERATURES.

THERE COULD BE FOG AND MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN ALONG THE FAR NORTH
SHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE HUMID WINDS
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO
THE NE AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING EAST
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. STRONG...WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 15
TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EASTERLY TO NE FLOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE NORTH SHORE AND DULUTH AREA CLOSE TO LAKE
SUPERIOR MUCH COOLER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN NE MINNESOTA AND EAST INTO NW
WISCONSIN. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO THE WARM CAP
ALOFT...SO THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANY STRONG STORMS IS VERY LOW
BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
RACING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS TAPER OFF QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A LOT MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...ALONG WITH STEEP LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW BUT NOTABLE VALUES OF CAPE. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE GOOD LARGE-SCALE FORCING HAVE LEAD TO
INCREASED POPS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM THE WEEKEND
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY THOUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
COULD BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OUR WAY. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLORADO LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE MILD LATE IN THE WEEK
TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KTS AFTER 12Z. KDLH MAY BE AFFECTED BY A MORE NORTHEAST FLOW
AND SOME MVFR STRATUS FLOWING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. AFTER 18Z SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF KDLH AND KHYR. THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT QUITE UNLIKELY AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINAL
FORECAST FOR NOW. FOR NOW AM EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  57  42  55 /   0  20  20  10
INL  31  63  39  47 /   0   0  20  30
BRD  38  69  41  53 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  32  64  43  58 /   0  50  60   0
ASX  29  62  42  58 /   0  30  40   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 312333
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
633 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME QUICK UPDATES
TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS FOR THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 330 PM...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
FROM WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15
MPH NW WINDS. SKIES WERE PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 50S...EXCEPT THE 40S IN THE NORTHERN ARROWHEAD WHERE THERE
WAS LINGERING BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST. EASTERLY AND
THEN SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
LOW AND MIDDLE 30S OVER THE WEST WHERE THE WINDS WILL BOLSTER THE
TEMPERATURES.

THERE COULD BE FOG AND MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN ALONG THE FAR NORTH
SHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE HUMID WINDS
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO
THE NE AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING EAST
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. STRONG...WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 15
TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EASTERLY TO NE FLOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE NORTH SHORE AND DULUTH AREA CLOSE TO LAKE
SUPERIOR MUCH COOLER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN NE MINNESOTA AND EAST INTO NW
WISCONSIN. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO THE WARM CAP
ALOFT...SO THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANY STRONG STORMS IS VERY LOW
BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
RACING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS TAPER OFF QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A LOT MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...ALONG WITH STEEP LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW BUT NOTABLE VALUES OF CAPE. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE GOOD LARGE-SCALE FORCING HAVE LEAD TO
INCREASED POPS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM THE WEEKEND
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY THOUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
COULD BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OUR WAY. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLORADO LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE MILD LATE IN THE WEEK
TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z WITH EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS AT LESS THAN 10KTS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KTS WITH GUSTS TO
20 KTS AFTER 12Z. KDLH MAY BE AFFECTED BY A MORE NORTHEAST FLOW
AND SOME MVFR STRATUS FLOWING OFF LAKE SUPERIOR. AFTER 18Z SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF KDLH AND KHYR. THUNDER IS ALSO
POSSIBLE...BUT QUITE UNLIKELY AND HAVE LEFT OUT OF TERMINAL
FORECAST FOR NOW. FOR NOW AM EXPECTING MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES WITH THESE SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  57  42  55 /   0  20  20  10
INL  31  63  39  47 /   0   0  20  30
BRD  38  69  41  53 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  32  64  43  58 /   0  50  60   0
ASX  29  62  42  58 /   0  30  40   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 312033
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 330 PM...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
FROM WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15
MPH NW WINDS. SKIES WERE PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 50S...EXCEPT THE 40S IN THE NORTHERN ARROWHEAD WHERE THERE
WAS LINGERING BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST. EASTERLY AND
THEN SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
LOW AND MIDDLE 30S OVER THE WEST WHERE THE WINDS WILL BOLSTER THE
TEMPERATURES.

THERE COULD BE FOG AND MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN ALONG THE FAR NORTH
SHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE HUMID WINDS
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO
THE NE AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING EAST
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. STRONG...WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 15
TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EASTERLY TO NE FLOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE NORTH SHORE AND DULUTH AREA CLOSE TO LAKE
SUPERIOR MUCH COOLER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN NE MINNESOTA AND EAST INTO NW
WISCONSIN. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO THE WARM CAP
ALOFT...SO THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANY STRONG STORMS IS VERY LOW
BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
RACING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS TAPER OFF QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A LOT MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...ALONG WITH STEEP LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW BUT NOTABLE VALUES OF CAPE. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE GOOD LARGE-SCALE FORCING HAVE LEAD TO
INCREASED POPS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM THE WEEKEND
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY THOUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
COULD BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OUR WAY. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLORADO LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE MILD LATE IN THE WEEK
TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA /AT INL AND HIB/...STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
DECK HAS PERSISTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. WHILE A
DRIER AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH HAS STARTED TO ERODE AWAY AT THE
STRATUS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND AT INL LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS
LIFT OVERNIGHT TO VFR...WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NEAR CALM
WINDS OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSEWHERE /AT DLH/BRD/HYR/...CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT /ALBEIT
LATER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED/ AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EARLY
EVENING. INCREASING VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AT 8-12KFT AGL...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  57  42  55 /   0  20  20  10
INL  31  63  39  47 /   0   0  20  30
BRD  38  69  41  53 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  32  64  43  58 /   0  50  60   0
ASX  29  62  42  58 /   0  30  40   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 312033
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 330 PM...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER THE UPPER
PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER
FAR NORTHERN ONTARIO. A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED
FROM WESTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE NORTHLAND HAD 5 TO 15
MPH NW WINDS. SKIES WERE PRIMARILY MOSTLY SUNNY. TEMPERATURES WERE
IN THE 50S...EXCEPT THE 40S IN THE NORTHERN ARROWHEAD WHERE THERE
WAS LINGERING BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE NORTHLAND FROM THE WEST. EASTERLY AND
THEN SE WINDS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE LATER TONIGHT AS THE
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION AND IN RESPONSE
TO A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
MOVING INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA...BUT THE
LOW AND MIDDLE 30S OVER THE WEST WHERE THE WINDS WILL BOLSTER THE
TEMPERATURES.

THERE COULD BE FOG AND MIX OF SNOW AND RAIN ALONG THE FAR NORTH
SHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING DUE TO THE HUMID WINDS
OFF OF LAKE SUPERIOR.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE IN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...WILL BEGIN TO LIFT TO
THE NE AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING EAST
ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WEDNESDAY. THE WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS OVERALL SYSTEM WILL LIFT INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. STRONG...WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER MOST OF
THE NORTHLAND BY LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL LIKELY BE 15
TO 25 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. EASTERLY TO NE FLOW OVER LAKE
SUPERIOR WILL KEEP THE NORTH SHORE AND DULUTH AREA CLOSE TO LAKE
SUPERIOR MUCH COOLER THAN MORE INLAND AREAS. INLAND AREAS WILL
LIKELY CLIMB WELL INTO THE 60S. THERE WILL BE INCREASING CHANCES
OF SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THERE COULD ALSO BE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE NEAR THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR IN NE MINNESOTA AND EAST INTO NW
WISCONSIN. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS LIMITED DUE TO THE WARM CAP
ALOFT...SO THINK THE CHANCES FOR ANY STRONG STORMS IS VERY LOW
BASED ON THE LATEST INFORMATION. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN
RACING INTO THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN FOR THE LONG TERM IS APPROACHING CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY FRIDAY FOLLOWING A
COLD FRONT. SHOWERS/ISOLATED T-STORMS TAPER OFF QUICKLY ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SFC LOW MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND BREEZY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVING
ACROSS. THIS NEXT COLD FRONT LOOKS TO HAVE A LOT MORE MID/UPPER
LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT...ALONG WITH STEEP LOW/MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW BUT NOTABLE VALUES OF CAPE. THESE
FACTORS COMBINED WITH THE GOOD LARGE-SCALE FORCING HAVE LEAD TO
INCREASED POPS FOR THURSDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM THE WEEKEND
LOOKS GENERALLY DRY THOUGH THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT
COULD BRING A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE OUR WAY. NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM
ARRIVES EARLY NEXT WEEK ON MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY AS A
COLORADO LOW DEEPENS AND MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE MILD LATE IN THE WEEK
TO NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA /AT INL AND HIB/...STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
DECK HAS PERSISTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. WHILE A
DRIER AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH HAS STARTED TO ERODE AWAY AT THE
STRATUS...MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY
AFTERNOON AND AT INL LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS
LIFT OVERNIGHT TO VFR...WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NEAR CALM
WINDS OVERNIGHT THEN BECOMING BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSEWHERE /AT DLH/BRD/HYR/...CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT /ALBEIT
LATER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED/ AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS TO 20-25KTS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EARLY
EVENING. INCREASING VFR CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AT 8-12KFT AGL...WITH
BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TOMORROW
MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  32  57  42  55 /   0  20  20  10
INL  31  63  39  47 /   0   0  20  30
BRD  38  69  41  53 /   0  10  10   0
HYR  32  64  43  58 /   0  50  60   0
ASX  29  62  42  58 /   0  30  40   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311724
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1224 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EXPIRED THE FOG ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR NW
WISCONSIN AND FROM CENTRAL ST LOUIS COUNTY TO PINE COUNTY.
CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO FOR
NW WISCONSIN DUE TO LINGERING FOG AND OVC/BKN CEILINGS AROUND 100
TO 300 FEET. HOWEVER...VISIBILITY IS GENERALLY IMPROVING AND LIGHT
WEST TO SW WINDS ARE DEVELOPING THAT SHOULD HELP LIFT AND THEN
BREAK UP THE REMAINING FOG OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND TWO. CONSIDERING
THE TREND...DECIDED TO LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 400 AM...DENSE FOG CONTINUED IN SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR SEVERAL OF
THE SITES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND
ADDRESS ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ACROSS
MAINLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
ONTARIO TODAY..MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
BY THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AS STATED...WILL HANG ON TO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY DESPITE SOME IMPROVEMENT...AS THERE IS STILL A
GOOD DEAL OF TIME FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT
NORTHWARD INTO THE IRON RANGE AREA TO ACCOMMODATE FOR DENSE FOG IN
HIBBING AND EVELETH. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AREA WIDE.

TONIGHT WILL SEE THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO WESTERN MN. SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE SHOULD ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE AN OCCLUSION COULD
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MN AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL MN
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN H85 CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MANITOBA AND OVER ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A WELL
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MN LATE WED
NIGHT...SPREADING OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS WITH WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER DEW POINTS/RH VALUES
THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE MAY NEED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DULUTH FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H50 TROUGH WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
BORDERLAND REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED
ISOLD THUNDER TO THE KINL AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PRODUCES INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA /AT INL AND HIB/...STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
DECK HAS PERSISTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. WHILE A DRIER
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH HAS STARTED TO ERODE AWAY AT THE STRATUS...MVFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND AT
INL LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS LIFT OVERNIGHT TO
VFR...WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT THEN
BECOMING BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSEWHERE /AT DLH/BRD/HYR/...CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT /ALBEIT LATER
THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED/ AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25KTS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EARLY EVENING. INCREASING VFR
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AT 8-12KFT AGL...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  31  58  40 /   0  10  40  40
INL  49  33  64  38 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  58  36  68  38 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  55  32  65  42 /   0  10  50  70
ASX  54  29  64  43 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 311724
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1224 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EXPIRED THE FOG ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR NW
WISCONSIN AND FROM CENTRAL ST LOUIS COUNTY TO PINE COUNTY.
CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO FOR
NW WISCONSIN DUE TO LINGERING FOG AND OVC/BKN CEILINGS AROUND 100
TO 300 FEET. HOWEVER...VISIBILITY IS GENERALLY IMPROVING AND LIGHT
WEST TO SW WINDS ARE DEVELOPING THAT SHOULD HELP LIFT AND THEN
BREAK UP THE REMAINING FOG OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND TWO. CONSIDERING
THE TREND...DECIDED TO LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 400 AM...DENSE FOG CONTINUED IN SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR SEVERAL OF
THE SITES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND
ADDRESS ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ACROSS
MAINLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
ONTARIO TODAY..MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
BY THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AS STATED...WILL HANG ON TO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY DESPITE SOME IMPROVEMENT...AS THERE IS STILL A
GOOD DEAL OF TIME FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT
NORTHWARD INTO THE IRON RANGE AREA TO ACCOMMODATE FOR DENSE FOG IN
HIBBING AND EVELETH. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AREA WIDE.

TONIGHT WILL SEE THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO WESTERN MN. SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE SHOULD ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE AN OCCLUSION COULD
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MN AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL MN
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN H85 CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MANITOBA AND OVER ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A WELL
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MN LATE WED
NIGHT...SPREADING OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS WITH WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER DEW POINTS/RH VALUES
THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE MAY NEED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DULUTH FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H50 TROUGH WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
BORDERLAND REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED
ISOLD THUNDER TO THE KINL AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PRODUCES INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA /AT INL AND HIB/...STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
DECK HAS PERSISTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. WHILE A DRIER
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH HAS STARTED TO ERODE AWAY AT THE STRATUS...MVFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND AT
INL LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS LIFT OVERNIGHT TO
VFR...WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT THEN
BECOMING BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSEWHERE /AT DLH/BRD/HYR/...CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT /ALBEIT LATER
THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED/ AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25KTS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EARLY EVENING. INCREASING VFR
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AT 8-12KFT AGL...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  31  58  40 /   0  10  40  40
INL  49  33  64  38 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  58  36  68  38 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  55  32  65  42 /   0  10  50  70
ASX  54  29  64  43 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311724
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1224 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EXPIRED THE FOG ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR NW
WISCONSIN AND FROM CENTRAL ST LOUIS COUNTY TO PINE COUNTY.
CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO FOR
NW WISCONSIN DUE TO LINGERING FOG AND OVC/BKN CEILINGS AROUND 100
TO 300 FEET. HOWEVER...VISIBILITY IS GENERALLY IMPROVING AND LIGHT
WEST TO SW WINDS ARE DEVELOPING THAT SHOULD HELP LIFT AND THEN
BREAK UP THE REMAINING FOG OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND TWO. CONSIDERING
THE TREND...DECIDED TO LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 400 AM...DENSE FOG CONTINUED IN SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR SEVERAL OF
THE SITES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND
ADDRESS ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ACROSS
MAINLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
ONTARIO TODAY..MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
BY THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AS STATED...WILL HANG ON TO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY DESPITE SOME IMPROVEMENT...AS THERE IS STILL A
GOOD DEAL OF TIME FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT
NORTHWARD INTO THE IRON RANGE AREA TO ACCOMMODATE FOR DENSE FOG IN
HIBBING AND EVELETH. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AREA WIDE.

TONIGHT WILL SEE THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO WESTERN MN. SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE SHOULD ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE AN OCCLUSION COULD
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MN AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL MN
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN H85 CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MANITOBA AND OVER ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A WELL
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MN LATE WED
NIGHT...SPREADING OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS WITH WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER DEW POINTS/RH VALUES
THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE MAY NEED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DULUTH FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H50 TROUGH WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
BORDERLAND REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED
ISOLD THUNDER TO THE KINL AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PRODUCES INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA /AT INL AND HIB/...STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
DECK HAS PERSISTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. WHILE A DRIER
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH HAS STARTED TO ERODE AWAY AT THE STRATUS...MVFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND AT
INL LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS LIFT OVERNIGHT TO
VFR...WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT THEN
BECOMING BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSEWHERE /AT DLH/BRD/HYR/...CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT /ALBEIT LATER
THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED/ AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25KTS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EARLY EVENING. INCREASING VFR
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AT 8-12KFT AGL...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  31  58  40 /   0  10  40  40
INL  49  33  64  38 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  58  36  68  38 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  55  32  65  42 /   0  10  50  70
ASX  54  29  64  43 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 311724
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1224 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EXPIRED THE FOG ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR NW
WISCONSIN AND FROM CENTRAL ST LOUIS COUNTY TO PINE COUNTY.
CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO FOR
NW WISCONSIN DUE TO LINGERING FOG AND OVC/BKN CEILINGS AROUND 100
TO 300 FEET. HOWEVER...VISIBILITY IS GENERALLY IMPROVING AND LIGHT
WEST TO SW WINDS ARE DEVELOPING THAT SHOULD HELP LIFT AND THEN
BREAK UP THE REMAINING FOG OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND TWO. CONSIDERING
THE TREND...DECIDED TO LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 400 AM...DENSE FOG CONTINUED IN SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR SEVERAL OF
THE SITES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND
ADDRESS ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ACROSS
MAINLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
ONTARIO TODAY..MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
BY THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AS STATED...WILL HANG ON TO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY DESPITE SOME IMPROVEMENT...AS THERE IS STILL A
GOOD DEAL OF TIME FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT
NORTHWARD INTO THE IRON RANGE AREA TO ACCOMMODATE FOR DENSE FOG IN
HIBBING AND EVELETH. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AREA WIDE.

TONIGHT WILL SEE THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO WESTERN MN. SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE SHOULD ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE AN OCCLUSION COULD
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MN AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL MN
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN H85 CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MANITOBA AND OVER ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A WELL
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MN LATE WED
NIGHT...SPREADING OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS WITH WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER DEW POINTS/RH VALUES
THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE MAY NEED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DULUTH FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H50 TROUGH WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
BORDERLAND REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED
ISOLD THUNDER TO THE KINL AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PRODUCES INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

GENERALLY IMPROVING TO VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR
PERSISTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

IN FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA /AT INL AND HIB/...STUBBORN LOW STRATUS
DECK HAS PERSISTED ACROSS FAR NORTHEASTERN MINNESOTA AND MUCH OF
NORTHERN WISCONSIN LONGER THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. WHILE A DRIER
AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH HAS STARTED TO ERODE AWAY AT THE STRATUS...MVFR
CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND AT
INL LIKELY THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. CEILINGS LIFT OVERNIGHT TO
VFR...WITH LIGHT NORTHWESTERLY TO NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT THEN
BECOMING BREEZY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING.

ELSEWHERE /AT DLH/BRD/HYR/...CLOUDS HAVE CLEARED OUT /ALBEIT LATER
THAN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED/ AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE TAF PERIOD. BREEZY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25KTS WILL DIMINISH BY THE EARLY EVENING. INCREASING VFR
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT AT 8-12KFT AGL...WITH BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY TO
SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOPING TOMORROW MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  54  31  58  40 /   0  10  40  40
INL  49  33  64  38 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  58  36  68  38 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  55  32  65  42 /   0  10  50  70
ASX  54  29  64  43 /   0  10  50  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311510 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1010 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EXPIRED THE FOG ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR NW
WISCONSIN AND FROM CENTRAL ST LOUIS COUNTY TO PINE COUNTY.
CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO FOR
NW WISCONSIN DUE TO LINGERING FOG AND OVC/BKN CEILINGS AROUND 100
TO 300 FEET. HOWEVER...VISIBILITY IS GENERALLY IMPROVING AND LIGHT
WEST TO SW WINDS ARE DEVELOPING THAT SHOULD HELP LIFT AND THEN
BREAK UP THE REMAINING FOG OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND TWO. CONSIDERING
THE TREND...DECIDED TO LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 400 AM...DENSE FOG CONTINUED IN SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR SEVERAL OF
THE SITES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND
ADDRESS ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ACROSS
MAINLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
ONTARIO TODAY..MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
BY THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AS STATED...WILL HANG ON TO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY DESPITE SOME IMPROVEMENT...AS THERE IS STILL A
GOOD DEAL OF TIME FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT
NORTHWARD INTO THE IRON RANGE AREA TO ACCOMMODATE FOR DENSE FOG IN
HIBBING AND EVELETH. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AREA WIDE.

TONIGHT WILL SEE THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO WESTERN MN. SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE SHOULD ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE AN OCCLUSION COULD
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MN AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL MN
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN H85 CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MANITOBA AND OVER ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A WELL
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MN LATE WED
NIGHT...SPREADING OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS WITH WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER DEW POINTS/RH VALUES
THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE MAY NEED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DULUTH FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H50 TROUGH WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
BORDERLAND REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED
ISOLD THUNDER TO THE KINL AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PRODUCES INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MINNESOTA BORDERLAND AND ARROWHEAD REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KINL/KHIB AND KDLH
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15-16Z. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...AFFECTING THE KHYR
TERMINAL THROUGH 14Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  31  58  40 /   0  10  40  40
INL  50  33  64  38 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  58  36  68  38 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  57  32  65  42 /   0  10  50  70
ASX  52  29  64  43 /  20  10  50  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311510 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1010 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1010 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

EXPIRED THE FOG ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR NW
WISCONSIN AND FROM CENTRAL ST LOUIS COUNTY TO PINE COUNTY.
CONSIDERED EXTENDING THE ADVISORY FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO FOR
NW WISCONSIN DUE TO LINGERING FOG AND OVC/BKN CEILINGS AROUND 100
TO 300 FEET. HOWEVER...VISIBILITY IS GENERALLY IMPROVING AND LIGHT
WEST TO SW WINDS ARE DEVELOPING THAT SHOULD HELP LIFT AND THEN
BREAK UP THE REMAINING FOG OVER THE NEXT HOUR AND TWO. CONSIDERING
THE TREND...DECIDED TO LET THE ADVISORY EXPIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 400 AM...DENSE FOG CONTINUED IN SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR SEVERAL OF
THE SITES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND
ADDRESS ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ACROSS
MAINLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
ONTARIO TODAY..MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
BY THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AS STATED...WILL HANG ON TO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY DESPITE SOME IMPROVEMENT...AS THERE IS STILL A
GOOD DEAL OF TIME FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT
NORTHWARD INTO THE IRON RANGE AREA TO ACCOMMODATE FOR DENSE FOG IN
HIBBING AND EVELETH. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AREA WIDE.

TONIGHT WILL SEE THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO WESTERN MN. SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE SHOULD ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE AN OCCLUSION COULD
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MN AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL MN
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN H85 CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MANITOBA AND OVER ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A WELL
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MN LATE WED
NIGHT...SPREADING OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS WITH WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER DEW POINTS/RH VALUES
THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE MAY NEED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DULUTH FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H50 TROUGH WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
BORDERLAND REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED
ISOLD THUNDER TO THE KINL AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PRODUCES INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MINNESOTA BORDERLAND AND ARROWHEAD REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KINL/KHIB AND KDLH
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15-16Z. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...AFFECTING THE KHYR
TERMINAL THROUGH 14Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  31  58  40 /   0  10  40  40
INL  50  33  64  38 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  58  36  68  38 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  57  32  65  42 /   0  10  50  70
ASX  52  29  64  43 /  20  10  50  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 311148
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
648 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 400 AM...DENSE FOG CONTINUED IN SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR SEVERAL OF
THE SITES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND
ADDRESS ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ACROSS
MAINLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
ONTARIO TODAY..MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
BY THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AS STATED...WILL HANG ON TO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY DESPITE SOME IMPROVEMENT...AS THERE IS STILL A
GOOD DEAL OF TIME FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT
NORTHWARD INTO THE IRON RANGE AREA TO ACCOMMODATE FOR DENSE FOG IN
HIBBING AND EVELETH. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AREA WIDE.

TONIGHT WILL SEE THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO WESTERN MN. SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE SHOULD ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE AN OCCLUSION COULD
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MN AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL MN
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN H85 CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MANITOBA AND OVER ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A WELL
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MN LATE WED
NIGHT...SPREADING OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS WITH WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER DEW POINTS/RH VALUES
THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE MAY NEED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DULUTH FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H50 TROUGH WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
BORDERLAND REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED
ISOLD THUNDER TO THE KINL AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PRODUCES INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MINNESOTA BORDERLAND AND ARROWHEAD REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KINL/KHIB AND KDLH
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15-16Z. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...AFFECTING THE KHYR
TERMINAL THROUGH 14Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  31  58  40 /   0  10  40  40
INL  50  33  64  38 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  58  36  68  38 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  57  32  65  42 /   0  10  50  70
ASX  52  29  64  43 /  20  10  50  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ019-025-
     026-033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311148
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
648 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 400 AM...DENSE FOG CONTINUED IN SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR SEVERAL OF
THE SITES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND
ADDRESS ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ACROSS
MAINLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
ONTARIO TODAY..MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
BY THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AS STATED...WILL HANG ON TO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY DESPITE SOME IMPROVEMENT...AS THERE IS STILL A
GOOD DEAL OF TIME FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT
NORTHWARD INTO THE IRON RANGE AREA TO ACCOMMODATE FOR DENSE FOG IN
HIBBING AND EVELETH. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AREA WIDE.

TONIGHT WILL SEE THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO WESTERN MN. SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE SHOULD ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE AN OCCLUSION COULD
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MN AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL MN
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN H85 CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MANITOBA AND OVER ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A WELL
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MN LATE WED
NIGHT...SPREADING OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS WITH WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER DEW POINTS/RH VALUES
THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE MAY NEED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DULUTH FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H50 TROUGH WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
BORDERLAND REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED
ISOLD THUNDER TO THE KINL AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PRODUCES INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MINNESOTA BORDERLAND AND ARROWHEAD REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KINL/KHIB AND KDLH
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15-16Z. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...AFFECTING THE KHYR
TERMINAL THROUGH 14Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  31  58  40 /   0  10  40  40
INL  50  33  64  38 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  58  36  68  38 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  57  32  65  42 /   0  10  50  70
ASX  52  29  64  43 /  20  10  50  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ019-025-
     026-033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 311148
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
648 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 400 AM...DENSE FOG CONTINUED IN SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR SEVERAL OF
THE SITES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND
ADDRESS ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ACROSS
MAINLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
ONTARIO TODAY..MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
BY THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AS STATED...WILL HANG ON TO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY DESPITE SOME IMPROVEMENT...AS THERE IS STILL A
GOOD DEAL OF TIME FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT
NORTHWARD INTO THE IRON RANGE AREA TO ACCOMMODATE FOR DENSE FOG IN
HIBBING AND EVELETH. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AREA WIDE.

TONIGHT WILL SEE THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO WESTERN MN. SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE SHOULD ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE AN OCCLUSION COULD
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MN AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL MN
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN H85 CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MANITOBA AND OVER ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A WELL
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MN LATE WED
NIGHT...SPREADING OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS WITH WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER DEW POINTS/RH VALUES
THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE MAY NEED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DULUTH FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H50 TROUGH WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
BORDERLAND REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED
ISOLD THUNDER TO THE KINL AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PRODUCES INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MINNESOTA BORDERLAND AND ARROWHEAD REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KINL/KHIB AND KDLH
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15-16Z. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...AFFECTING THE KHYR
TERMINAL THROUGH 14Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  31  58  40 /   0  10  40  40
INL  50  33  64  38 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  58  36  68  38 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  57  32  65  42 /   0  10  50  70
ASX  52  29  64  43 /  20  10  50  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ019-025-
     026-033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 311148
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
648 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 400 AM...DENSE FOG CONTINUED IN SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR SEVERAL OF
THE SITES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND
ADDRESS ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ACROSS
MAINLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
ONTARIO TODAY..MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
BY THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AS STATED...WILL HANG ON TO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY DESPITE SOME IMPROVEMENT...AS THERE IS STILL A
GOOD DEAL OF TIME FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT
NORTHWARD INTO THE IRON RANGE AREA TO ACCOMMODATE FOR DENSE FOG IN
HIBBING AND EVELETH. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AREA WIDE.

TONIGHT WILL SEE THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO WESTERN MN. SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE SHOULD ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE AN OCCLUSION COULD
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MN AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL MN
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN H85 CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MANITOBA AND OVER ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A WELL
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MN LATE WED
NIGHT...SPREADING OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS WITH WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER DEW POINTS/RH VALUES
THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE MAY NEED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DULUTH FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H50 TROUGH WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
BORDERLAND REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED
ISOLD THUNDER TO THE KINL AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PRODUCES INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING LOW CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW OR
RAIN SHOWERS TO THE MINNESOTA BORDERLAND AND ARROWHEAD REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. LINGERING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT KINL/KHIB AND KDLH
WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 15-16Z. AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL BE
COMMON ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...AFFECTING THE KHYR
TERMINAL THROUGH 14Z.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN THROUGH
THE EVENING. WINDS WILL TURN OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT OVERNIGHT...WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS DEVELOPING ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  31  58  40 /   0  10  40  40
INL  50  33  64  38 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  58  36  68  38 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  57  32  65  42 /   0  10  50  70
ASX  52  29  64  43 /  20  10  50  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ019-025-
     026-033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 310921
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
421 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 400 AM...DENSE FOG CONTINUED IN SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR SEVERAL OF
THE SITES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND
ADDRESS ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ACROSS
MAINLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
ONTARIO TODAY..MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
BY THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AS STATED...WILL HANG ON TO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY DESPITE SOME IMPROVEMENT...AS THERE IS STILL A
GOOD DEAL OF TIME FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT
NORTHWARD INTO THE IRON RANGE AREA TO ACCOMMODATE FOR DENSE FOG IN
HIBBING AND EVELETH. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AREA WIDE.

TONIGHT WILL SEE THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO WESTERN MN. SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE SHOULD ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE AN OCCLUSION COULD
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MN AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL MN
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN H85 CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MANITOBA AND OVER ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A WELL
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MN LATE WED
NIGHT...SPREADING OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS WITH WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER DEW POINTS/RH VALUES
THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE MAY NEED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DULUTH FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H50 TROUGH WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
BORDERLAND REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED
ISOLD THUNDER TO THE KINL AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PRODUCES INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS KDLH AND KHYR AS OF 00Z BRINGING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS. THE OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KINL
GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z...ALSO WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. IT MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY AFFECT KHIB AND KDLH...WHILE
THE OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN VFR. AFTER 15Z NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK
UP AND BLOW AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  31  58  40 /   0  10  40  40
INL  50  33  64  38 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  58  36  68  38 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  57  32  65  42 /   0  10  50  70
ASX  52  29  64  43 /  20  10  50  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ019-025-
     026-033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE








000
FXUS63 KDLH 310921
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
421 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AT 400 AM...DENSE FOG CONTINUED IN SPOTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE CWA. THERE HAD BEEN SOME IMPROVEMENT FOR SEVERAL OF
THE SITES...BUT WILL MAINTAIN THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW AND
ADDRESS ANY POSSIBLE CHANGES NEEDED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
TEMPERATURES WERE GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WITH
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS. SCATTERED PRECIPITATION WAS FOUND ACROSS
MAINLY THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD.

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS NW
ONTARIO TODAY..MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN
BY THIS EVENING. SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED IN THE
ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AS STATED...WILL HANG ON TO THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY DESPITE SOME IMPROVEMENT...AS THERE IS STILL A
GOOD DEAL OF TIME FOR VISIBILITIES TO DROP. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED IT
NORTHWARD INTO THE IRON RANGE AREA TO ACCOMMODATE FOR DENSE FOG IN
HIBBING AND EVELETH. HIGHS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE
ARROWHEAD TO THE 50S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE A BIT
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF SUNSHINE DEVELOPING AREA WIDE.

TONIGHT WILL SEE THE ADVANCEMENT OF A WARM FRONT FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO WESTERN MN. SOME SPOTTY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE SHOULD ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE...AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE INTO CENTRAL AND
EASTERN MN BY LATE WEDNESDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE AN OCCLUSION COULD
DEVELOP SOMEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MN AREA. WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE AFTERNOON. THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SEEING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE IN EAST CENTRAL MN
AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AREAS OF FOG WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL FOG NEAR THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT IN WESTERN MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AN H85 CLOSED LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS MANITOBA AND OVER ONTARIO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE DRAGGING A SFC REFLECTION COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE EASTERN ZONES. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY EVENING. BEHIND THE FRONT...A WELL
PRONOUNCED DRY SLOT PUSHES INTO WESTERN MN LATE WED
NIGHT...SPREADING OVER THE MN ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN AREAS
THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY. NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO DEW POINTS
IN THE TEENS WITH WEST WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT WITHIN THE MIXED LAYER
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS DRIER DEW POINTS/RH VALUES
THURSDAY...AND ANTICIPATE MAY NEED TO CONTINUE TO LOWER. THE
COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AROUND 20 PERCENT...AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL PRODUCE NEAR-CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR FIRE WEATHER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE DULUTH FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.

A SECONDARY COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE H50 TROUGH WILL BRING
FALLING TEMPERATURES...INCREASING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO THE
BORDERLAND REGION LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. HAVE INTRODUCED
ISOLD THUNDER TO THE KINL AREA LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE COLD
AIR ADVECTION PRODUCES INCREASED INSTABILITY. THE LIMITING FACTOR
FOR ANY SHOWERS/STORMS THURSDAY EVENING WILL BE THE VERY DRY AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS KDLH AND KHYR AS OF 00Z BRINGING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS. THE OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KINL
GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z...ALSO WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. IT MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY AFFECT KHIB AND KDLH...WHILE
THE OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN VFR. AFTER 15Z NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK
UP AND BLOW AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  31  58  40 /   0  10  40  40
INL  50  33  64  38 /  10  10  10  10
BRD  58  36  68  38 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  57  32  65  42 /   0  10  50  70
ASX  52  29  64  43 /  20  10  50  60

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR MNZ019-025-
     026-033>038.

WI...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR WIZ001>004-
     006>009.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE







000
FXUS63 KDLH 310005
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION...DUE TO LATEST TRENDS. UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BAND
IT IS MUCH COOLER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE...AND HAVE
MADE ADJUSTEMENTS TO NEXT FEW HOURS OF TEMPERATURES.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 300PM...THERE WAS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR EASTERN
DAKOTAS NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED NORTH
FROM THE LOW TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN MANITOBA. MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND HAD CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
THERE WAS LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND.
TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH WARMER AND SKIES MUCH CLEARER OFF TO THE
WEST...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN THE DAKOTAS.

THE WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
SE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SE AND E...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AFTER SUNSET. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA OR DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE LOW IN MANITOBA WILL MOVE SE AND CROSS NEAR THE
ARROWHEAD/ONTARIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. MELTING WILL HELP LIMIT THE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN ARROWHEAD COULD GET
UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. THE DULUTH AREA
COULD GET A LIGHT DUSTING.

TUESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND
WITH COOL NW FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...EXCEPT IT WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER IN THE EASTERN
ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK...BECOMING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WHEN SHOWERS POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS THROUGH THE MID-WEEK AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THE
REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...WARMER WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. WHILE WARM MOIST AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERCOME...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO FOCUS
PRECIP TIMING ON LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO INCLUDED
FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DUE TO WINDS OFF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTH...10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH DEEP MIXING WELL ABOVE 700MB. WITH
THIS DEEP MIXING EXPECT RH VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN DRIER
CONDITIONS...WHICH MAY LEAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MAY SEE LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WARMER
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COLORADO LOW
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MILD START
TO THE WORK WEEK FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL AT
THIS POINT WITH THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS KDLH AND KHYR AS OF 00Z BRINGING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS. THE OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KINL
GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z...ALSO WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. IT MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY AFFECT KHIB AND KDLH...WHILE
THE OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN VFR. AFTER 15Z NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK
UP AND BLOW AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  51  29  58 /  70  10   0  40
INL  35  49  30  63 /  40  10  10  10
BRD  34  58  37  67 /  20   0   0  10
HYR  33  53  30  64 /  60   0   0  50
ASX  33  51  27  61 /  70  20   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 310005
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION...DUE TO LATEST TRENDS. UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BAND
IT IS MUCH COOLER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE...AND HAVE
MADE ADJUSTEMENTS TO NEXT FEW HOURS OF TEMPERATURES.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 300PM...THERE WAS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR EASTERN
DAKOTAS NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED NORTH
FROM THE LOW TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN MANITOBA. MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND HAD CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
THERE WAS LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND.
TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH WARMER AND SKIES MUCH CLEARER OFF TO THE
WEST...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN THE DAKOTAS.

THE WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
SE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SE AND E...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AFTER SUNSET. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA OR DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE LOW IN MANITOBA WILL MOVE SE AND CROSS NEAR THE
ARROWHEAD/ONTARIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. MELTING WILL HELP LIMIT THE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN ARROWHEAD COULD GET
UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. THE DULUTH AREA
COULD GET A LIGHT DUSTING.

TUESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND
WITH COOL NW FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...EXCEPT IT WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER IN THE EASTERN
ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK...BECOMING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WHEN SHOWERS POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS THROUGH THE MID-WEEK AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THE
REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...WARMER WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. WHILE WARM MOIST AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERCOME...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO FOCUS
PRECIP TIMING ON LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO INCLUDED
FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DUE TO WINDS OFF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTH...10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH DEEP MIXING WELL ABOVE 700MB. WITH
THIS DEEP MIXING EXPECT RH VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN DRIER
CONDITIONS...WHICH MAY LEAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MAY SEE LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WARMER
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COLORADO LOW
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MILD START
TO THE WORK WEEK FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL AT
THIS POINT WITH THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS KDLH AND KHYR AS OF 00Z BRINGING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS. THE OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KINL
GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z...ALSO WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. IT MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY AFFECT KHIB AND KDLH...WHILE
THE OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN VFR. AFTER 15Z NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK
UP AND BLOW AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  51  29  58 /  70  10   0  40
INL  35  49  30  63 /  40  10  10  10
BRD  34  58  37  67 /  20   0   0  10
HYR  33  53  30  64 /  60   0   0  50
ASX  33  51  27  61 /  70  20   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LE










000
FXUS63 KDLH 310005
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION...DUE TO LATEST TRENDS. UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BAND
IT IS MUCH COOLER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE...AND HAVE
MADE ADJUSTEMENTS TO NEXT FEW HOURS OF TEMPERATURES.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 300PM...THERE WAS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR EASTERN
DAKOTAS NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED NORTH
FROM THE LOW TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN MANITOBA. MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND HAD CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
THERE WAS LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND.
TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH WARMER AND SKIES MUCH CLEARER OFF TO THE
WEST...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN THE DAKOTAS.

THE WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
SE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SE AND E...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AFTER SUNSET. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA OR DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE LOW IN MANITOBA WILL MOVE SE AND CROSS NEAR THE
ARROWHEAD/ONTARIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. MELTING WILL HELP LIMIT THE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN ARROWHEAD COULD GET
UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. THE DULUTH AREA
COULD GET A LIGHT DUSTING.

TUESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND
WITH COOL NW FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...EXCEPT IT WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER IN THE EASTERN
ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK...BECOMING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WHEN SHOWERS POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS THROUGH THE MID-WEEK AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THE
REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...WARMER WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. WHILE WARM MOIST AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERCOME...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO FOCUS
PRECIP TIMING ON LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO INCLUDED
FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DUE TO WINDS OFF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTH...10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH DEEP MIXING WELL ABOVE 700MB. WITH
THIS DEEP MIXING EXPECT RH VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN DRIER
CONDITIONS...WHICH MAY LEAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MAY SEE LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WARMER
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COLORADO LOW
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MILD START
TO THE WORK WEEK FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL AT
THIS POINT WITH THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS KDLH AND KHYR AS OF 00Z BRINGING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS. THE OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KINL
GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z...ALSO WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. IT MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY AFFECT KHIB AND KDLH...WHILE
THE OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN VFR. AFTER 15Z NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK
UP AND BLOW AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  51  29  58 /  70  10   0  40
INL  35  49  30  63 /  40  10  10  10
BRD  34  58  37  67 /  20   0   0  10
HYR  33  53  30  64 /  60   0   0  50
ASX  33  51  27  61 /  70  20   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LE









000
FXUS63 KDLH 310005
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE FOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION...DUE TO LATEST TRENDS. UNDER THE PRECIPITATION BAND
IT IS MUCH COOLER WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES ELSEWHERE...AND HAVE
MADE ADJUSTEMENTS TO NEXT FEW HOURS OF TEMPERATURES.

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 300PM...THERE WAS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR EASTERN
DAKOTAS NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED NORTH
FROM THE LOW TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN MANITOBA. MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND HAD CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
THERE WAS LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND.
TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH WARMER AND SKIES MUCH CLEARER OFF TO THE
WEST...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN THE DAKOTAS.

THE WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
SE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SE AND E...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AFTER SUNSET. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA OR DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE LOW IN MANITOBA WILL MOVE SE AND CROSS NEAR THE
ARROWHEAD/ONTARIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. MELTING WILL HELP LIMIT THE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN ARROWHEAD COULD GET
UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. THE DULUTH AREA
COULD GET A LIGHT DUSTING.

TUESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND
WITH COOL NW FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...EXCEPT IT WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER IN THE EASTERN
ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK...BECOMING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WHEN SHOWERS POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS THROUGH THE MID-WEEK AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THE
REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...WARMER WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. WHILE WARM MOIST AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERCOME...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO FOCUS
PRECIP TIMING ON LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO INCLUDED
FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DUE TO WINDS OFF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTH...10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH DEEP MIXING WELL ABOVE 700MB. WITH
THIS DEEP MIXING EXPECT RH VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN DRIER
CONDITIONS...WHICH MAY LEAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MAY SEE LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WARMER
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COLORADO LOW
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MILD START
TO THE WORK WEEK FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL AT
THIS POINT WITH THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

BAND OF RAIN MOVING ACROSS KDLH AND KHYR AS OF 00Z BRINGING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE
IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR FOR MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LINGERING
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH LOCATIONS. THE OTHER LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. ANOTHER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD MOVE THROUGH KINL
GENERALLY BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z...ALSO WITH MVFR CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES. IT MAY ALSO TEMPORARILY AFFECT KHIB AND KDLH...WHILE
THE OTHER LOCATIONS REMAIN VFR. AFTER 15Z NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK
UP AND BLOW AT 10-15KTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS FOR A FEW
LOCATIONS...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN AFTER 21Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  51  29  58 /  70  10   0  40
INL  35  49  30  63 /  40  10  10  10
BRD  34  58  37  67 /  20   0   0  10
HYR  33  53  30  64 /  60   0   0  50
ASX  33  51  27  61 /  70  20   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...LE










000
FXUS63 KDLH 302010
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 300PM...THERE WAS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR EASTERN
DAKOTAS NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED NORTH
FROM THE LOW TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN MANITOBA. MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND HAD CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
THERE WAS LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND.
TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH WARMER AND SKIES MUCH CLEARER OFF TO THE
WEST...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN THE DAKOTAS.

THE WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
SE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SE AND E...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AFTER SUNSET. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA OR DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE LOW IN MANITOBA WILL MOVE SE AND CROSS NEAR THE
ARROWHEAD/ONTARIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. MELTING WILL HELP LIMIT THE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN ARROWHEAD COULD GET
UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. THE DULUTH AREA
COULD GET A LIGHT DUSTING.

TUESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND
WITH COOL NW FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...EXCEPT IT WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER IN THE EASTERN
ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK...BECOMING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WHEN SHOWERS POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS THROUGH THE MID-WEEK AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THE
REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...WARMER WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. WHILE WARM MOIST AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERCOME...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO FOCUS
PRECIP TIMING ON LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO INCLUDED
FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DUE TO WINDS OFF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTH...10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH DEEP MIXING WELL ABOVE 700MB. WITH
THIS DEEP MIXING EXPECT RH VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN DRIER
CONDITIONS...WHICH MAY LEAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MAY SEE LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WARMER
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COLORADO LOW
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MILD START
TO THE WORK WEEK FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL AT
THIS POINT WITH THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH CEILING HEIGHTS
REACHING 1-2KFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PERIODS
OF IFR CEILINGS...BUT AT THIS POINT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BELIEVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR MOST OF THE TIME. LIGHT RAIN MAY
MIX/TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TOMORROW MORNING WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

BRD WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  51  29  58 /  70  10   0  40
INL  35  49  30  63 /  50  10  10  10
BRD  34  58  37  67 /  20   0   0  10
HYR  33  53  30  64 /  60   0   0  50
ASX  33  51  27  61 /  70  20   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 302010
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 300PM...THERE WAS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR EASTERN
DAKOTAS NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED NORTH
FROM THE LOW TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN MANITOBA. MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND HAD CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
THERE WAS LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND.
TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH WARMER AND SKIES MUCH CLEARER OFF TO THE
WEST...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN THE DAKOTAS.

THE WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
SE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SE AND E...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AFTER SUNSET. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA OR DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE LOW IN MANITOBA WILL MOVE SE AND CROSS NEAR THE
ARROWHEAD/ONTARIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. MELTING WILL HELP LIMIT THE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN ARROWHEAD COULD GET
UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. THE DULUTH AREA
COULD GET A LIGHT DUSTING.

TUESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND
WITH COOL NW FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...EXCEPT IT WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER IN THE EASTERN
ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK...BECOMING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WHEN SHOWERS POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS THROUGH THE MID-WEEK AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THE
REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...WARMER WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. WHILE WARM MOIST AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERCOME...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO FOCUS
PRECIP TIMING ON LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO INCLUDED
FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DUE TO WINDS OFF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTH...10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH DEEP MIXING WELL ABOVE 700MB. WITH
THIS DEEP MIXING EXPECT RH VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN DRIER
CONDITIONS...WHICH MAY LEAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MAY SEE LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WARMER
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COLORADO LOW
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MILD START
TO THE WORK WEEK FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL AT
THIS POINT WITH THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH CEILING HEIGHTS
REACHING 1-2KFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PERIODS
OF IFR CEILINGS...BUT AT THIS POINT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BELIEVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR MOST OF THE TIME. LIGHT RAIN MAY
MIX/TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TOMORROW MORNING WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

BRD WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  51  29  58 /  70  10   0  40
INL  35  49  30  63 /  50  10  10  10
BRD  34  58  37  67 /  20   0   0  10
HYR  33  53  30  64 /  60   0   0  50
ASX  33  51  27  61 /  70  20   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 302010
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 300PM...THERE WAS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE FAR EASTERN
DAKOTAS NEAR THE ND/SD BORDER. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDED NORTH
FROM THE LOW TO ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN MANITOBA. MUCH
OF THE NORTHLAND HAD CLOUDY SKIES AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S.
THERE WAS LIGHT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN FORECAST AREA
ASSOCIATED MAINLY WITH A LOW/MID LEVEL FRONTOGENETICAL BAND.
TEMPERATURES WERE MUCH WARMER AND SKIES MUCH CLEARER OFF TO THE
WEST...IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IN THE DAKOTAS.

THE WEAK LOW IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE
SE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE FRONTOGENETICAL BAND OVER THE
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TO
THE SE AND E...BRINGING LIGHT RAIN TO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THERE COULD BE A TRANSITION TO A LITTLE MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
AFTER SUNSET. THE PCPN ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BAND SHOULD MOVE OUT
OF THE FORECAST AREA OR DIMINISH BY LATE THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THE LOW IN MANITOBA WILL MOVE SE AND CROSS NEAR THE
ARROWHEAD/ONTARIO BORDER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY. THIS LOW
COULD BRING LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW TO THE ARROWHEAD LATER TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY MORNING. MELTING WILL HELP LIMIT THE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...BUT PARTS OF THE FAR EASTERN ARROWHEAD COULD GET
UP TO A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION. THE DULUTH AREA
COULD GET A LIGHT DUSTING.

TUESDAY LOOKS RELATIVELY SUNNY FOR MOST AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND
WITH COOL NW FLOW. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 40S AND
50S...EXCEPT IT WILL BE CLOUDIER AND COOLER IN THE EASTERN
ARROWHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND. MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH MOST OF THE WORK
WEEK...BECOMING CLOSER TO NORMAL BY THE WEEKEND. BEST CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
WHEN SHOWERS POSSIBLY A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE A
TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...LIFTING
NORTH INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE. THE SFC LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS TROUGH WILL BE THE FOCUS THROUGH THE MID-WEEK AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY. FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND THE
REGION WILL BE IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL KEEP TEMPS
CLOSER TO NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY...WARMER WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM. INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE
NORMAL. WHILE WARM MOIST AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE WARM
FRONT...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF DRY AIR
FOR SHOWERS TO OVERCOME...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE TREND TO FOCUS
PRECIP TIMING ON LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY AFTERNOON. ALSO INCLUDED
FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE/ARROWHEAD DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE DUE TO WINDS OFF THE LAKE. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTH...10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 30 MPH AT TIMES.
TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S...EXCEPT
ACROSS THE NORTH SHORE WHERE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID
50S.

THURSDAY...COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST BRINGING
WINDY AND DRY CONDITIONS. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH WITH DEEP MIXING WELL ABOVE 700MB. WITH
THIS DEEP MIXING EXPECT RH VALUES TO DROP TO AROUND 30 PERCENT IN
THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR EVEN DRIER
CONDITIONS...WHICH MAY LEAD FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. MAY SEE LIGHT
RAIN DEVELOP ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...BUT MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE MID 40S TO NEAR 50 IN
NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WARMER
IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS TEMPS RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S IN
THE AFTERNOON.

FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST...GENERALLY DRY AND SEASONABLE. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN TO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. COLORADO LOW
DEVELOPS ON SUNDAY AND LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MILD START
TO THE WORK WEEK FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST...BUT TOO EARLY TO TELL AT
THIS POINT WITH THE SPREAD OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH CEILING HEIGHTS
REACHING 1-2KFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PERIODS
OF IFR CEILINGS...BUT AT THIS POINT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BELIEVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR MOST OF THE TIME. LIGHT RAIN MAY
MIX/TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TOMORROW MORNING WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

BRD WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  34  51  29  58 /  70  10   0  40
INL  35  49  30  63 /  50  10  10  10
BRD  34  58  37  67 /  20   0   0  10
HYR  33  53  30  64 /  60   0   0  50
ASX  33  51  27  61 /  70  20   0  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301739
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH CEILING HEIGHTS
REACHING 1-2KFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PERIODS
OF IFR CEILINGS...BUT AT THIS POINT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BELIEVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR MOST OF THE TIME. LIGHT RAIN MAY
MIX/TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TOMORROW MORNING WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

BRD WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  32 /  60  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  33 /  40  50  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  20   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  40  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301739
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH CEILING HEIGHTS
REACHING 1-2KFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PERIODS
OF IFR CEILINGS...BUT AT THIS POINT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BELIEVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR MOST OF THE TIME. LIGHT RAIN MAY
MIX/TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TOMORROW MORNING WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

BRD WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  32 /  60  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  33 /  40  50  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  20   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  40  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...JJM







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301739
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH CEILING HEIGHTS
REACHING 1-2KFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PERIODS
OF IFR CEILINGS...BUT AT THIS POINT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BELIEVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR MOST OF THE TIME. LIGHT RAIN MAY
MIX/TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TOMORROW MORNING WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

BRD WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  32 /  60  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  33 /  40  50  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  20   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  40  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 301739
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR BECOMING MVFR THIS AFTERNOON AS LIGHT RAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION. CEILINGS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH CEILING HEIGHTS
REACHING 1-2KFT THIS AFTERNOON...AND LOW CEILINGS PERSISTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AT INL/HIB/DLH/HYR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR PERIODS
OF IFR CEILINGS...BUT AT THIS POINT BASED ON UPSTREAM OBS BELIEVE
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR MOST OF THE TIME. LIGHT RAIN MAY
MIX/TRANSITION TO SNOW TONIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS RAIN DUE TO WARM SURFACE TEMPS. VISIBILITY MAY BE REDUCED TO
MVFR LEVELS AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAIN CHANGES TO SNOW. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR-CALM THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
TOMORROW MORNING WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY OUT OF THE WEST/NORTHWEST.

BRD WILL BE THE EXCEPTION...REMAINING VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  32 /  60  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  33 /  40  50  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  20   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  40  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...JJM








000
FXUS63 KDLH 301229
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
729 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...LOWERING BELOW 3 KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY AS A VORT MAX
DIVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE WAVE WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NE MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS EVENING WITH IFR VSBYS/CEILINGS...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE KINL/KHIB/KDLH/KHYR TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  32 /  70  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  33 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  70  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301229
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
729 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...LOWERING BELOW 3 KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY AS A VORT MAX
DIVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE WAVE WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NE MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS EVENING WITH IFR VSBYS/CEILINGS...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE KINL/KHIB/KDLH/KHYR TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  32 /  70  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  33 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  70  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING







000
FXUS63 KDLH 301229
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
729 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 713 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION THIS
MORNING...LOWERING BELOW 3 KFT AFTER 18Z TODAY AS A VORT MAX
DIVES ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. THE WAVE WILL BRING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TO PORTIONS OF NE MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON...MOVING OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD OF
ACCUMULATING SNOW THIS EVENING WITH IFR VSBYS/CEILINGS...MAINLY
AFFECTING THE KINL/KHIB/KDLH/KHYR TERMINALS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  32 /  70  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  33 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  70  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING








000
FXUS63 KDLH 300904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  33 /  70  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  32 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  70  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE/WL







000
FXUS63 KDLH 300904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  33 /  70  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  32 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  70  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE/WL








000
FXUS63 KDLH 300904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  33 /  70  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  32 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  70  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE/WL








000
FXUS63 KDLH 300904
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
404 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AT 330 AM...SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE CWA. TEMPS WERE
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S...BUT THERE WERE A FEW
LOCATIONS IN THE UPPER 20S. WINDS WERE LIGHT FROM THE W TO SW.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TODAY IS THE POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. AFTER
THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY BROUGHT A MIX OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION TO MUCH
OF THE CWA...THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH REGARD TO THE SURFACE LOW THAT
WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL MN BY 21Z. RAIN WILL BE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TODAY...ALTHOUGH AT THE ONSET THERE
COULD BE A LITTLE SLEET. BY THIS EVENING...COOLING THERMAL
PROFILES NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL MEAN A TRANSITION TO SNOW
FOR MUCH OF THE ARROWHEAD AND INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE THINKING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE AN INCH OR TWO
IN THAT AREA...ALTHOUGH THE NAM WOULD SUPPORT A BIT HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN THE ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WI. SREF PLUMES MEAN SNOWFALL ARE
GENERALLY IN THE 1 TO 2 INCH RANGE...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN THE MEMBERS.

THE MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY SWITCH TO SNOW AND
GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON. IT
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY ON TUESDAY...WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.

HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL RANGE FROM THE 40S IN THE NORTHEAST TO THE
LOWER 60S IN THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION...WHERE THEY WILL BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR DURING A PORTION OF THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 20S TO MIDDLE 30S...WITH HIGHS
ON TUESDAY IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

MID LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A CLOSED H50 TRANSLATING OVER NORTHERN ND.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT A REGION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH H85
TEMPS IN THE TEENS PUSHES EAST OVER MN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT
MOVES INTO WESTERN MN AROUND 18Z WED...SWEEPING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST QUITE A BIT OF DRY
AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY...SUGGESTING CONVECTION ALONG THE COLD
FRONT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE AFTERNOON ONCE THE FRONT REACHES NE
MINN/NW WIS. DUE TO THE INCREASING DEW POINTS AND LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW...HAVE INTRODUCED AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF LAKE
SUPERIOR WEDNESDAY.

A DRY SLOT WILL LIFT INTO THE MINN ZONES BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY THURSDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW TRACKS EAST ACROSS SRN
MANITOBA AND INTO ONTARIO. THE CYCLONIC FLOW AND CAA WILL BRING RAIN
OR SNOW SHOWERS TO THE BORDERLAND/ARROWHEAD THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1242 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT ALL TAF SITES THIS EVENING. VFR CEILINGS
WILL CONTINUE AT ALL SITES OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THERE STILL WILL BE
PERIODS OF SCATTERED SKIES FROM TIME TO TIME. WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS RELAXED. ADDED SOME LIGHT FOG FOR KHIB AND
KINL TERMINALS OVERNIGHT DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT PRECIP.

ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST ON MONDAY.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT RAIN AS THE PRECIP TYPE THROUGHOUT THIS
PERIOD...WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING OVER THE ARROWHEAD WHICH MAY BE
COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

LAST SEVERAL HRRR RUNS KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF KBRD. FELT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO KEEP -RA OUT. ALL OTHER TAF SITES SHOULD SEE -RA
PREVAIL LATE IN THE PERIOD AS H850 FGEN MOVES IN FROM SW TO NE AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS. MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS
EXCEPT FOR KBRD DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  49  33  52  33 /  70  70  10   0
INL  48  32  51  32 /  60  70  10  10
BRD  59  34  59  41 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  53  31  55  32 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  51  30  50  31 /  70  70  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE/WL







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