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000
FXUS63 KDLH 291152
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
652 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Upper low nearly overhead is in the process of opening up and
lifting to the northeast into Canada while slowly weakening early
this morning, but there is still sufficient forced ascent to
produce scattered to widespread showers this morning. The forcing
is most pronounced across northern Minnesota in close proximity to
the weakening deformation zone, and this is likely to persist
until around mid morning, at which point westerly winds should
overspread most of the Duluth CWA as the surface low pulls away.
However, increasing sun as the day progresses should lead to the
development of some pretty decent instability this afternoon
underneath still relatively cool temps aloft. Most of the short
range hi-res guidance and CAMs produce scattered T-Storms this
afternoon and linger them into the 03z time frame this evening. We
agree with this general assessment and have increased PoPs for
this afternoon in most areas, and have also extended the mention
of at least some precip well into the evening as this type of
activity in W/NW flow is often hard to kill off before sunset,
which is not until almost 9 PM local time. Some small hail and
gusty winds are certainly possible with the strongest cells this
afternoon/early evening.

Later tonight, clearing skies and light winds as low level ridging
builds in to the region should lead to the re-development of fog
in many areas, and it could be more widespread than is currently
indicated in the forecast.

Memorial Day appears to be the best day of the Holiday weekend
underneath weak surface ridging, with light west/northwest winds
and warming temps. A weak impulse sliding east-southeastward along
the Canadian border could touch off a few instability showers
Monday afternoon over NCent MN and the Arrowhead.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 359 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Our next storm system is an upper low that will have been moving
across the northern Rockies, and Monday evening will be over eastern
Montana.  This low will move east across the Dakotas Tuesday and
Tuesday night, before moving across Minnesota on Wednesday.  This
system will bring another round of showers and thunderstorms
beginning late Monday night, with fairly high pops Tuesday and
Tuesday night before tapering off again on Thursday. The extra
clouds and precipitation should bring temperatures back down into
the 60s and 70s for both Tuesday through Thursday.

Ridging will build across the area Friday, bringing quieter weather
for the daytime.  Colder air brought down behind the exiting system
will keep temperatures on the cool side, with highs in the upper 60s
to low 70s.

Next weekend chances for showers and thunderstorms return as a
shortwave moves southeast across the area...with temperatures
gradually warming.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Sun May 29 2016

IFR/LIFR conditions at all sites as of 12z should slowly improve
to MVFR generally between 15z and 21z today...with further
improvement to VFR by 00z. Scattered rain showers expected to
develop across the terminals generally during the 18z - 00z time
range...and have included VCSH in FM groups around those times to
account for them. No TEMPO groups for now as timing and location
uncertain. VFR conditions should continue tonight, though some
terminals may have fog development after 05z. Have included it in
KDLH for now, but we may need it in additional locations as well.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  52  77  47 /  50  20   0  30
INL  68  50  76  48 /  50  20   0  10
BRD  75  52  81  55 /  40  10  10  60
HYR  73  52  80  50 /  50  30   0  50
ASX  70  53  77  47 /  50  30   0  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...LE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 281743
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1243 PM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

At 345 AM, skies remained cloudy across the Northland. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms were also continuing, with the most
numerous showers in the Minnesota Arrowhead. Areas of fog
persisted as well, especially across the southern portion of the
CWA, and near Lake Superior. Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s
near the lake, to the mid 60s in Phillips, WI.

The weather for today through Sunday will be fairly similar to
what it was on Friday, as another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to push in from the south. The model
guidance is all over the place in terms of placement and expected
amounts, but the mass fields generally point to an increase in
showers and thunderstorms as the day wears on. Could be a few
stronger storms, especially in northwest Wisconsin this afternoon.
Will generally continue with likely pops region-wide, but there
will undoubtedly be some breaks as well. Have also added the
mention of some drizzle along the with the fog, as it has been
fairly prevalent this morning so far.

The upper level low will swing through the region tonight and
Sunday, resulting in continued rain and thunderstorms tonight, and
shortwave ridging bringing drier weather for a short reprieve for
the end of the weekend and early in the upcoming week. Some
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to linger into
tonight and Sunday.

Highs today and Sunday are expected to range from the 60s to the
70s, although it will be cooler near Lake Superior.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Sunday night and Monday quieter and warmer weather should return to
the area, with a weak shortwave ridge and westerly flow aloft, and
weak southwest flow at the surface.  Highs should rise into the 70s
for most locations, with some low 80s possible.

The next upper level shortwave moves east out of the Rockies to send
some chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Monday night,
then continuing Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level wave moves
across the area.  The extra clouds and precipitation should bring
temperatures back down into the 60s and 70s.  Have kept pops fairly
high for now, but expect that we will still need to make adjustments
in the coming days.

Cooler weather will move into the area by Thursday, as the flow
behind the exiting upper level wave amplifies and sends some colder
air our direction.  High temperatures should only be in the 60s for
both Thursday and Friday, though warmer temperatures should move
back in for the weekend as the amplifying flow brings an upper level
ridge and southwest flow to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat May 28 2016

widespread drizzle and lifr/mvfr conditions will prevail today and
overnight as the forecast area remains in a saturated and unstable
air mass. Locally dense fog will be found at KDLH for much of the
period. winds will turn out of the northwest sunday morning,
allowing for improving condtions generally after 12-14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  53  72  51 /  40  50  40  10
INL  64  52  70  48 /  70  60  50  10
BRD  69  54  77  53 /  50  50  30  10
HYR  71  54  75  52 /  60  70  60  10
ASX  64  50  73  51 /  60  60  60  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...Graning





000
FXUS63 KDLH 281149
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
649 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

updated aviation section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

At 345 AM, skies remained cloudy across the Northland. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms were also continuing, with the most
numerous showers in the Minnesota Arrowhead. Areas of fog
persisted as well, especially across the southern portion of the
CWA, and near Lake Superior. Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s
near the lake, to the mid 60s in Phillips, WI.

The weather for today through Sunday will be fairly similar to
what it was on Friday, as another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to push in from the south. The model
guidance is all over the place in terms of placement and expected
amounts, but the mass fields generally point to an increase in
showers and thunderstorms as the day wears on. Could be a few
stronger storms, especially in northwest Wisconsin this afternoon.
Will generally continue with likely pops region-wide, but there
will undoubtedly be some breaks as well. Have also added the
mention of some drizzle along the with the fog, as it has been
fairly prevalent this morning so far.

The upper level low will swing through the region tonight and
Sunday, resulting in continued rain and thunderstorms tonight, and
shortwave ridging bringing drier weather for a short reprieve for
the end of the weekend and early in the upcoming week. Some
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to linger into
tonight and Sunday.

Highs today and Sunday are expected to range from the 60s to the
70s, although it will be cooler near Lake Superior.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Sunday night and Monday quieter and warmer weather should return to
the area, with a weak shortwave ridge and westerly flow aloft, and
weak southwest flow at the surface.  Highs should rise into the 70s
for most locations, with some low 80s possible.

The next upper level shortwave moves east out of the Rockies to send
some chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Monday night,
then continuing Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level wave moves
across the area.  The extra clouds and precipitation should bring
temperatures back down into the 60s and 70s.  Have kept pops fairly
high for now, but expect that we will still need to make adjustments
in the coming days.

Cooler weather will move into the area by Thursday, as the flow
behind the exiting upper level wave amplifies and sends some colder
air our direction.  High temperatures should only be in the 60s for
both Thursday and Friday, though warmer temperatures should move
back in for the weekend as the amplifying flow brings an upper level
ridge and southwest flow to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Widespread IFR/LIFR conditions for all except KINL this morning,
with areas of drizzle or light rain showers. KINL to also
deteriorate to IFR by 18z. A break of the precipitation and
perhaps temporary higher ceilings is expected generally 15z-
21z...plus/minus a few hours. Another area of showers and isolated
thunder is expected to spread north into the area from the
south after 21z...once again bringing ifr/lifr conditions for the
remainder of the taf period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  53  72  51 /  60  60  40  10
INL  68  52  70  48 /  60  60  50  10
BRD  71  54  77  53 /  60  50  30  10
HYR  73  54  75  52 /  60  70  60  10
ASX  67  50  73  51 /  60  60  60  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 280848
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
348 AM CDT SAT MAY 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

At 345 AM, skies remained cloudy across the Northland. Showers and
isolated thunderstorms were also continuing, with the most
numerous showers in the Minnesota Arrowhead. Areas of fog
persisted as well, especially across the southern portion of the
CWA, and near Lake Superior. Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s
near the lake, to the mid 60s in Phillips, WI.

The weather for today through Sunday will be fairly similar to
what it was on Friday, as another round of showers and
thunderstorms is expected to push in from the south. The model
guidance is all over the place in terms of placement and expected
amounts, but the mass fields generally point to an increase in
showers and thunderstorms as the day wears on. Could be a few
stronger storms, especially in northwest Wisconsin this afternoon.
Will generally continue with likely pops region-wide, but there
will undoubtedly be some breaks as well. Have also added the
mention of some drizzle along the with the fog, as it has been
fairly prevalent this morning so far.

The upper level low will swing through the region tonight and
Sunday, resulting in continued rain and thunderstorms tonight, and
shortwave ridging bringing drier weather for a short reprieve for
the end of the weekend and early in the upcoming week. Some
showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to linger into
tonight and Sunday.

Highs today and Sunday are expected to range from the 60s to the
70s, although it will be cooler near Lake Superior.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 347 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Sunday night and Monday quieter and warmer weather should return to
the area, with a weak shortwave ridge and westerly flow aloft, and
weak southwest flow at the surface.  Highs should rise into the 70s
for most locations, with some low 80s possible.

The next upper level shortwave moves east out of the Rockies to send
some chances for showers and thunderstorms beginning Monday night,
then continuing Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper level wave moves
across the area.  The extra clouds and precipitation should bring
temperatures back down into the 60s and 70s.  Have kept pops fairly
high for now, but expect that we will still need to make adjustments
in the coming days.

Cooler weather will move into the area by Thursday, as the flow
behind the exiting upper level wave amplifies and sends some colder
air our direction.  High temperatures should only be in the 60s for
both Thursday and Friday, though warmer temperatures should move
back in for the weekend as the amplifying flow brings an upper level
ridge and southwest flow to the area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 101 AM CDT Sat May 28 2016

Expecting IFR/LIFR cigs/visbys at all terminals overnight. KINL
will gradually see VFR conditions deteriorate to IFR overnight.
This is a result of light winds combined with the recent moisture
received...allowing fog to develop at all terminals. This is
already evident at several obs sites across the region...and
indicated by the latest guidance.

Still expecting winds to remain light across the region on
Saturday and clouds to remain. Based on the latest guidance was a
little more pessimistic with conditions only improving to
MVFR...but think that VFR visby will develop. During the
afternoon expecting showers and thunderstorms to move into the
region from south as a low moves in from the south. Still
uncertain on how widespread shower/thunderstorm activity will
be...so left in as VCSH for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  64  53  72  51 /  60  60  40  10
INL  68  52  70  48 /  60  60  50  10
BRD  71  54  77  53 /  60  50  30  10
HYR  73  54  75  52 /  60  70  60  10
ASX  67  50  73  51 /  60  60  60  10

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...WL





000
FXUS63 KDLH 271751
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
1251 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Updated for the new 18Z aviation discussion below.



UPDATE Issued at 1042 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

An area of rain extended north through our Minnesota zones as far
north as the Iron Range. A dry east-southeast flow as seen on the
300k isentropic surface was keeping a good portion of northwest
Wisconsin dry. This dry flow does break down as moisture surges
into that area later today into tonight. The various short term
guidance agrees on keeping the bulk of the rain over the western
half of the CWA today. The precip has been just rain at this time
with little or no thunder. We decreased the chance for thunder
until later today...but even then the better CAPE remains near or
just south of our Wisconsin zones.

Looking ahead to tonight, the HRRR is handling this precipitation
well at this time and it shows coverage diminishing late today
into this evening. The latest GFS/NAM also show show this general
trend. We will wait for the rest of the guidance to come in before
making too many significant changes to the forecast tonight but it
does look like we will have to cut back some on pops tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

At 4 AM, it was dry across the CWA, with mainly high clouds
streaming in from the south and west. Temperatures ranged from the
middle 40s to the lower 50s for much of the area. Areas of dense
fog persisted across the region, especially close to Lake
Superior, where there was a persistent moist marine layer.

The main focus for today through Saturday will be resolving the
various precipitation threats for the Northland. Today will be
fairly quiet initially, but the potential for showers and
thunderstorms will increase from the south as the day wears on. A
shortwave lifting north through the plains today will result in an
increase in showers and storms. The chance of precipitation will
vary between likely and scattered coverage. Highs today will be in
the 70s, but it will once again be cooler near the lake.

The potential for showers and thunderstorms continues tonight, as
the main upper level low and trough lifts into the western Great
Lakes region. That means an increase in showers and storms as the
night wears on, with numerous showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday. Moisture will spread in from the south, generating the
fairly decent precipitation amounts. Highs should generally be in
the 70s, but clouds and precipitation could keep temperatures a
bit lower in spots.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 407 AM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The extended highlights include the passage of a cold front early
in the period, then upper level ridging followed by another
extensive upper low.

By Sunday Night the current surface low over the southern and
central Plains will be right over the northland and with the
greatest instability and lift forecast over northwestern
Wisconsin. This will continue the extensive rain and thunderstorms
Saturday night into Sunday morning with possible residual showers
lingering Sunday afternoon. The low will move north into Ontario
followed by a surface high so Memorial Day will be dry and sunny.

However, that will be short-lived as the upper air pattern will
again feature a large long wave trof currently over British
Columbia digging into the western U. S. Monday night and closing
off over the High Plains by Tuesday. By Wednesday the resulting
surface low will be across the Dakotas and it will move across
Minnesota and Wisconsin Thursday into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Widespread rain across parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin will
continue to lift northward through this afternoon, bringing light
rain to Northland terminals. Showers are likely this evening, but
will then lift northward to north of Minnesota by Saturday
morning. There will is a low risk of isolated thunder through
this evening, too low to warrant having thunder in the TAFs at
this time. The best chance of thunder will be for KHYR this
evening. May need to add thunder back into the TAFs will later
updates.

The conditions will primarily remain VFR through early this
evening, but there will be lowering ceilings and visibility
tonight into early Saturday. There will likely be widespread
LIFR/IFR conditions by dawn Saturday. Conditions will slowly
improve to IFR/MVFR by Saturday afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  51  64  50 /  90  60  70  60
INL  75  56  71  52 /  50  60  60  50
BRD  68  56  72  54 /  80  60  60  60
HYR  72  56  74  56 /  60  70  80  60
ASX  60  48  69  52 /  50  70  70  60

&&

.DLH Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
WI...None.
MN...None.
LS...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Grochocinski
SHORT TERM...DAP
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...Grochocinski





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