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000
FXUS63 KDLH 032019
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE NORTHLAND THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL THE FRONT EXITS THE NORTHLAND LATE THIS
EVENING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IS VERY LOW...BUT THERE
COULD BE ISOLATED STRONGER STORM CELLS CAPABLE OF SMALL HAIL.
WHILE MIXED LAYER CAPE WILL BUILD TO ABOUT 500 TO 1500 J/KG...THE
LACK OF DEEP LAYER WIND SHEAR WILL MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR ANY
STORMS TO BECOME ORGANIZED.

A LAYER OF SMOKE HIGH IN THE ATMOSPHERE...RESULTING FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES UPSTREAM OF THE NW FLOW ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE
TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND...MOSTLY THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS. THIS MAY HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION AND PROMOTE RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT DUE
TO VERY LIGHT WIND SPEEDS AND CLEARING SKIES...BUT THE SMOKE WILL
HELP INSULATE AREAS. LEANED ON THE COOLER MOS GUIDANCE...BUT MAY
NEED TO REEVALUATE THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...WHICH IS WHERE THE SMOKE WILL MOST
LIKELY LINGER.

WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE
PASSING HIGH PRESSURE. THE SKIES SHOULD BE SUNNY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY...EXCEPT FOR WHERE THERE COULD BE THE SMOKE LAYER.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S FOR MOST
AREAS...BUT IT WILL BE COOLER NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR DUE TO THE LAKE
BREEZE. THERE IS A VERY LOW POSSIBILITY OF PCPN DURING THE
DAY...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS KEEP THE PCPN SOUTH AND WEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER
MANITOBA/HUDSON BAY SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP AN H850 LOW WITH
SFC COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY REACHES THE FAR NW ZONES...KOOCH
COUNTY INTO THE CHIPPEWA NATL FOREST SUNDAY EVENING...THEN SLOWLY
PUSHES EAST OVER NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE NIGHT...REACHING
THE TWIN PORTS DURING THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING HOURS. THE SLOW
MOVING FRONT...AND ASSOCIATED RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT AREAS
IN WISCONSIN THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY.

THESE STORMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN. LATEST GFS/NAM
SUGGEST PWAT VALUES INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES DUE TO THE
SOUTHERLY FETCH AHEAD OF THE FRONT. LATEST NAM SUGGESTS CAPE
VALUES FALL TO GENERALLY AROUND 1000 J/KG SUNDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING STORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD AMOUNTS
AROUND AN INCH ARE EXPECTED...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 2
INCHES OR MORE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 80S IN MOST AREAS. THE
HEAT COMBINED WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY WILL PRODUCE VERY MUGGY
FEELING CONDITIONS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE NORTH SHORE OF
LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A THICK LAYER OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE CAN BE SEEN ON CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SMOKE
HAS BROUGHT REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 4 TO 6SM AT MOST LOCATIONS. A
COLD FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM THE KDLH
AREA...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AFFECTING THE KHYR TAF
SITE THROUGH 00Z. ANY STORMS TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  77  56  81 /   0   0   0  20
INL  50  84  61  81 /   0  10  20  80
BRD  59  85  63  85 /   0  10  10  70
HYR  52  82  60  82 /  40  10  10  10
ASX  54  74  56  83 /  20   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 031726
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A THICK LAYER OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE CAN BE SEEN ON CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SMOKE HAS
BROUGHT REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 4 TO 6SM AT MOST LOCATIONS. A COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM THE KDLH
AREA...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AFFECTING THE KHYR TAF
SITE THROUGH 00Z. ANY STORMS TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  30  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  40  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 031726
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1226 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015


.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A THICK LAYER OF HIGH LEVEL SMOKE CAN BE SEEN ON CURRENT SATELLITE
IMAGERY OVER MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SMOKE HAS
BROUGHT REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 4 TO 6SM AT MOST LOCATIONS. A COLD
FRONT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM THE KDLH
AREA...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN...AFFECTING THE KHYR TAF
SITE THROUGH 00Z. ANY STORMS TODAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
CONTAIN SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY
FOG...MAINLY OVER WISCONSIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  30  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  40  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 031205
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS 15Z-09Z
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS NEAR KDLH...KHIB AND KHYR THROUGH 15Z
WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 21Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH...KBRD...KHYR. THESE STORMS TOO WILL HAVE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 09Z. FOG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  20  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  50  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 031205
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS 15Z-09Z
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS NEAR KDLH...KHIB AND KHYR THROUGH 15Z
WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 21Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH...KBRD...KHYR. THESE STORMS TOO WILL HAVE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 09Z. FOG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  20  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  50  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 031205
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS 15Z-09Z
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS NEAR KDLH...KHIB AND KHYR THROUGH 15Z
WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 21Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH...KBRD...KHYR. THESE STORMS TOO WILL HAVE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 09Z. FOG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  20  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  50  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 031205
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
705 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTH THROUGH THE TERMINALS 15Z-09Z
TODAY AND TONIGHT. SHOWERS NEAR KDLH...KHIB AND KHYR THROUGH 15Z
WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AFTER 21Z...MAINLY
AFFECTING KHIB...KDLH...KBRD...KHYR. THESE STORMS TOO WILL HAVE
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEFORE DIMINISHING BY 09Z. FOG WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  20  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  50  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 030821
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE MAY LEAD TO
REDUCED VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND AREA RADARS SHOW SOME OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  20  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  50  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...MELDE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 030821
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE MAY LEAD TO
REDUCED VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND AREA RADARS SHOW SOME OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  20  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  50  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...MELDE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 030821
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
321 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN SHORT TERM CONCERNS ARE CENTERED AROUND THE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS NERN MN AND EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER NW WI SAT AFTERNOON.

AN UPPER S/W AND ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY/THIS EVENING AND PRODUCE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
CURRENTLY THERE IS A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM
LEECH LAKE INTO NRN LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES. THIS LINE OF HIGH-
BASED CONVECTION IS BEING WEAKLY FORCED BY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND REMNANTS OF MID LEVEL INSTABILITY. AS THIS LINE MOVES
E/SEWD THROUGH THE EARLY/MID MORNING INTO A MORE STABLE AND DRIER
AIR MASS EXPECT THE CONVECTION TO DIMINISH IN INTENSITY AND
COVERAGE. HOWEVER...BY THE LATE MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON A
MORE HUMID AND WARMER AIR MASS IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL DEVELOP AND
ALLOW LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO STEEPEN AND BL INSTABILITY TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE INCOMING COLD FRONT. AS THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES PRIMED AND THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...WILL LIKELY SEE
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEVELOPING CONVECTION OVER THE E/SERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA...ROUGHLY FROM THE TWIN PORTS/TWO HARBORS AREA SWWD
ALONG HIGHWAY 210 TO NEAR BRAINERD. THIS LINE WILL EXPAND AND MOVE
TO THE SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO
NW WI. BL CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL BE
CONDUCIVE FOR POPUP STORMS...BUT THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20-25
KT WILL LIMIT THE STORMS ABILITY TO BECOME MATURE AND KEEP
CONDITIONS BELOW SEVERE LEVELS. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE HOWEVER.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM ONCE AGAIN INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER
80S WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES MAKING IT FEEL A BIT
WARMER. THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES EWD AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ACROSS NRN MN. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OFF AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE 50S.
CONDITIONS ON THE INDEPENDENCE DAY WILL START OFF VERY PLEASANT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE HIGH WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH THE DAY AND
SETTLE IN OVER LAKE SUPERIOR. AS TEMPERATURES OVER THE LAND WARM
INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S AGAIN...A MODEST THERMAL GRADIENT
WILL SET UP AND COMBINE WITH THE HIGH OVER LAKE SUPERIOR TO PRODUCE
A 10 TO 15 MPH E/NE WIND OFF THE LAKE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO...THE
WARM TEMPS AROUND THE TWIN PORTS IN THE MORNING MIGHT BE UNDERCUT IN
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING DUE TO THE ARRIVAL OF A LAKE BREEZE. TEMPS
COULD FALL INTO THE LOWER 60S.

THE OTHER CONCERN ON THE FOURTH OF JULY WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
WEAK CONVECTION OVER NW WI ALONG A LINGERING SFC FRONT. WILL LIKELY
SEE CONVECTIVE CUMULUS DEVELOP OVER A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH THE DAY...BUT THE PRESENCE OF A BOUNDARY MAY ALLOW FOR
FURTHER DEVELOPMENT TO THE SOUTH WITH SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

THE MAIN FOCUS OF THE LONG TERM IS ON THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES
THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY...ALONG WITH ACCOMPANYING
THUNDERSTORMS. WE HAVE SOME POTENTIAL FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS WELL.

A COLD FRONT IS MODELED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  IT LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD DEVELOP
MODERATE CAPE VALUES...BUT SHEAR IS GOING TO BE OUR LIMITING FACTOR
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET IS FOCUSED FARTHER NORTH OVER MANITOBA OR
ONTARIO...AND SHEAR DOES NOT INCREASE TO SIGNIFICANT VALUES UNTIL
AFTER THE FRONT PASSES.  WHILE SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE...DO NOT EXPECT A WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OVER THIS CWA...AND
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE FARTHER SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID
THOUGH...PW VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES IS GOING TO MAKE HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING A CONCERN.  THIS SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO
THE EAST ON MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING SMALL POPS MONDAY NIGHT.

OUR NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MOVES IN FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NEXT WEEK...WITH ENOUGH MODEL UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP POPS IN
THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR NOW.  THE MAIN DIFFERENCES ARE IN THE TIMING
OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE ECMWF
EARLIER THAN THE GFS...SPREADING OUT OUR POPS OVER AN EXTRA PERIOD
FOR NOW.  OTHERWISE....TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WORK WEEK TO BE NEAR TO JUST BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN
THE 70S AND LOWS MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 318 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY EVENING. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH SOME PATCHY FOG/HAZE MAY LEAD TO
REDUCED VSBYS OVERNIGHT.

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA TONIGHT AND AREA RADARS SHOW SOME OVER NORTHWEST
ONTARIO. THERE MAY BE A LULL IN COVERAGE LATE TONIGHT...BUT WITH
DAYTIME HEATING ON FRIDAY...ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/STORMS WILL DEVELOP.
THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  79  57  74  57 /  20  10  10  10
INL  78  52  81  60 /  20   0  10  10
BRD  82  56  83  62 /  30   0  10  10
HYR  77  55  79  59 /  50  30  20  10
ASX  78  55  74  55 /  40  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...MELDE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 022343
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WARMER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITH NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. TEMPS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

LATE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20KTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A
MULTICELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE OUTFLOWS OF INITIAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD A FEW CU ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THUS LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVEN KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE MILD.

TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES
CLEAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AS SHOWERS MOVE ON IN. THIS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SFC TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SFC TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE
REMNANTS OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE BORDERLAND REGION
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TOWARDS THE MORNING.
COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS
SOUTH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WANE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...INTO THE LOW 50S IN PARTS OF INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS MAINLY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IF IT DROPS SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THIS WILL IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER
WITH BETTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AROUND 30KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A STRONGER STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EVERYWHERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES ON SATURDAY AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
COULD BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING
AT KHYR SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LIVED WEAK CELLS.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING. FOR NOW...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A
FEW SHOWERS EXITING THE ARROWHEAD. AREA RADARS SHOW MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL GRADUALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST TAF
SITES. WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE TIMING SOME AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SMOKE OVER THE REGION...AND WE
MAY SEE SOME HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TONIGHT TO TURN NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  56  73 /  10  40  20  10
INL  58  77  51  81 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  79  56  83 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  55  78  55  79 /   0  50  30  20
ASX  57  77  55  73 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 022343
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WARMER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITH NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. TEMPS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

LATE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20KTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A
MULTICELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE OUTFLOWS OF INITIAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD A FEW CU ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THUS LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVEN KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE MILD.

TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES
CLEAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AS SHOWERS MOVE ON IN. THIS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SFC TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SFC TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE
REMNANTS OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE BORDERLAND REGION
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TOWARDS THE MORNING.
COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS
SOUTH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WANE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...INTO THE LOW 50S IN PARTS OF INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS MAINLY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IF IT DROPS SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THIS WILL IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER
WITH BETTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AROUND 30KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A STRONGER STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EVERYWHERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES ON SATURDAY AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
COULD BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING
AT KHYR SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LIVED WEAK CELLS.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING. FOR NOW...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A
FEW SHOWERS EXITING THE ARROWHEAD. AREA RADARS SHOW MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL GRADUALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST TAF
SITES. WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE TIMING SOME AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SMOKE OVER THE REGION...AND WE
MAY SEE SOME HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TONIGHT TO TURN NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  56  73 /  10  40  20  10
INL  58  77  51  81 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  79  56  83 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  55  78  55  79 /   0  50  30  20
ASX  57  77  55  73 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 022343
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WARMER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITH NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. TEMPS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

LATE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20KTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A
MULTICELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE OUTFLOWS OF INITIAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD A FEW CU ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THUS LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVEN KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE MILD.

TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES
CLEAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AS SHOWERS MOVE ON IN. THIS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SFC TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SFC TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE
REMNANTS OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE BORDERLAND REGION
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TOWARDS THE MORNING.
COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS
SOUTH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WANE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...INTO THE LOW 50S IN PARTS OF INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS MAINLY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IF IT DROPS SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THIS WILL IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER
WITH BETTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AROUND 30KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A STRONGER STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EVERYWHERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES ON SATURDAY AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
COULD BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING
AT KHYR SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LIVED WEAK CELLS.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING. FOR NOW...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A
FEW SHOWERS EXITING THE ARROWHEAD. AREA RADARS SHOW MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL GRADUALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST TAF
SITES. WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE TIMING SOME AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SMOKE OVER THE REGION...AND WE
MAY SEE SOME HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TONIGHT TO TURN NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  56  73 /  10  40  20  10
INL  58  77  51  81 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  79  56  83 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  55  78  55  79 /   0  50  30  20
ASX  57  77  55  73 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 022343
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
643 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WARMER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITH NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. TEMPS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

LATE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20KTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A
MULTICELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE OUTFLOWS OF INITIAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD A FEW CU ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THUS LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVEN KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE MILD.

TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES
CLEAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AS SHOWERS MOVE ON IN. THIS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SFC TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SFC TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE
REMNANTS OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE BORDERLAND REGION
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TOWARDS THE MORNING.
COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS
SOUTH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WANE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...INTO THE LOW 50S IN PARTS OF INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS MAINLY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IF IT DROPS SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THIS WILL IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER
WITH BETTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AROUND 30KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A STRONGER STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EVERYWHERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES ON SATURDAY AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
COULD BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING
AT KHYR SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LIVED WEAK CELLS.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING. FOR NOW...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 638 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS COVERED THE NORTHLAND EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH A
FEW SHOWERS EXITING THE ARROWHEAD. AREA RADARS SHOW MORE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NORTHWEST ONTARIO
INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHICH WILL GRADUALL MOVE INTO NORTHERN
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. OVERALL WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
PERIOD AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS TO MOST TAF
SITES. WE MAY HAVE TO ADJUST THE TIMING SOME AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS PLENTY OF SMOKE OVER THE REGION...AND WE
MAY SEE SOME HAZE DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN SPOTS. EXPECT SOUTHWEST
WINDS TONIGHT TO TURN NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
NORTHLAND ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  56  73 /  10  40  20  10
INL  58  77  51  81 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  79  56  83 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  55  78  55  79 /   0  50  30  20
ASX  57  77  55  73 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...MELDE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 022049
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WARMER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITH NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. TEMPS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

LATE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20KTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A
MULTICELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE OUTFLOWS OF INITIAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD A FEW CU ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THUS LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVEN KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE MILD.

TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES
CLEAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AS SHOWERS MOVE ON IN. THIS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SFC TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SFC TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE
REMNANTS OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE BORDERLAND REGION
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TOWARDS THE MORNING.
COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS
SOUTH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WANE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...INTO THE LOW 50S IN PARTS OF INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS MAINLY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IF IT DROPS SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THIS WILL IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER
WITH BETTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AROUND 30KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A STRONGER STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EVERYWHERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES ON SATURDAY AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
COULD BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING
AT KHYR SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LIVED WEAK CELLS.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING. FOR NOW...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING...SLOWING MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDER HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR THIS TAF SET. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THERE IS
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  56  73 /  10  40  20  10
INL  58  77  51  81 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  79  56  83 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  55  78  55  79 /   0  50  30  20
ASX  57  77  55  73 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 022049
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WARMER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITH NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. TEMPS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

LATE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20KTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A
MULTICELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE OUTFLOWS OF INITIAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD A FEW CU ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THUS LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVEN KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE MILD.

TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES
CLEAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AS SHOWERS MOVE ON IN. THIS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SFC TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SFC TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE
REMNANTS OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE BORDERLAND REGION
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TOWARDS THE MORNING.
COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS
SOUTH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WANE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...INTO THE LOW 50S IN PARTS OF INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS MAINLY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IF IT DROPS SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THIS WILL IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER
WITH BETTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AROUND 30KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A STRONGER STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EVERYWHERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES ON SATURDAY AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
COULD BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING
AT KHYR SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LIVED WEAK CELLS.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING. FOR NOW...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING...SLOWING MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDER HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR THIS TAF SET. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THERE IS
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  56  73 /  10  40  20  10
INL  58  77  51  81 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  79  56  83 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  55  78  55  79 /   0  50  30  20
ASX  57  77  55  73 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 022049
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WARMER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITH NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. TEMPS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

LATE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20KTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A
MULTICELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE OUTFLOWS OF INITIAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD A FEW CU ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THUS LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVEN KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE MILD.

TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES
CLEAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AS SHOWERS MOVE ON IN. THIS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SFC TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SFC TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE
REMNANTS OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE BORDERLAND REGION
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TOWARDS THE MORNING.
COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS
SOUTH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WANE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...INTO THE LOW 50S IN PARTS OF INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS MAINLY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IF IT DROPS SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THIS WILL IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER
WITH BETTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AROUND 30KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A STRONGER STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EVERYWHERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES ON SATURDAY AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
COULD BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING
AT KHYR SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LIVED WEAK CELLS.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING. FOR NOW...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING...SLOWING MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDER HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR THIS TAF SET. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THERE IS
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  56  73 /  10  40  20  10
INL  58  77  51  81 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  79  56  83 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  55  78  55  79 /   0  50  30  20
ASX  57  77  55  73 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 022049
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR EARLIER THIS WEEK IS
GRADUALLY SHIFTING SOUTHEASTWARD AS A MID-LEVEL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AS THE HIGH DEPARTS WARMER AIR IS BEING ADVECTED INTO THE
REGION DUE TO WESTERLY LOW/MID LEVEL FLOW...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN
MINNESOTA. THIS WARM AIR ADVECTION AT LOW LEVELS WILL HELP TO
STEEPEN LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND WITH NEARLY NO CAP IN PLACE EXPECT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION
TOMORROW...PROVIDING BETTER FORCING FOR CONVECTION WHICH WILL RESULT
IN A MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH
COULD BE STRONG. TEMPS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

LATE TODAY...A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD
REGION...OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM. WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING
IS NOT VERY STRONG...COMBINATION OF WARM AIR ADVECTION AND THE
UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO AT LEAST A FEW SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MLCAPE CAPE VALUES OF 1000-1200 J/KG AND 0-6KM SHEAR OF
20KTS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW STRONG STORMS IN A
MULTICELLULAR ENVIRONMENT...WITH THE OUTFLOWS OF INITIAL STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON BEING FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS INTO THE EVENING. MAIN
THREAT WILL BE SOME SMALL HAIL AND DOWNPOURS WITH THE STRONGEST
STORMS...BUT GIVEN THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR STORMS SHOULD BE BRIEF IN
DURATION AT ANY ONE LOCATION. OUTSIDE OF THE ARROWHEAD A FEW CU ARE
EXPECTED...MAINLY ACROSS THE REST OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH JUST
A FEW CLOUDS IN NORTHWEST WISCONSIN WHERE IT WILL NOT BE AS WARM AND
THUS LAPSE RATES NOT AS STEEP. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND ACROSS MOST OF INLAND NORTHWEST
WISCONSIN...INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY
2. WESTERLY WINDS WILL EVEN KEEP TEMPS ALONG THE LAKE SUPERIOR
SHORELINE MILD.

TONIGHT...FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EAST-
SOUTHEAST OVER LAKE SUPERIOR AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF THE
NEXT ROUND MOVING IN FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. SKIES
CLEAR SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2...WITH INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER SOUTH INTO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA AS THE NIGHT
GOES ON AS SHOWERS MOVE ON IN. THIS OVERNIGHT PRECIP WILL BE A
COMBINATION OF TWO FEATURES...A WEAK SFC TROUGH COMING IN FROM THE
WEST AND A COLD FRONT COMING IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS SFC TROUGH IS
EVIDENT IN EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH ONGOING CONVECTION...THE
REMNANTS OF WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DRIFT INTO THE BORDERLAND REGION
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE COLD FRONT MOVING IN FROM
THE NORTH WILL THEN PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA TOWARDS THE MORNING.
COVERAGE OF OVERNIGHT PRECIP IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. WHILE THERE SHOULD
BE ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY IN THE BORDERLAND TONIGHT TO SUSTAIN
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO...AS THE FEATURE DRIFTS
SOUTH THE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL WANE. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A
STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT TO SUSTAIN THUNDERSTORMS...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S DUE TO CLOUD
COVER...INTO THE LOW 50S IN PARTS OF INLAND NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AS
CLOUDS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY MORNING HOURS THERE.

FRIDAY...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE ONGOING AT DAYBREAK...EXPECT
MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THIS IS MAINLY DEPEND ON THE POSITION OF THE
COLD FRONT...AND IF IT DROPS SOUTH FASTER THAN CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
THIS WILL IMPACT STORM COVERAGE. CAPE VALUES LOOK TO BE A BIT HIGHER
WITH BETTER MID/UPPER-LEVEL WINDS SUPPORTING AROUND 30KTS 0-6KM
SHEAR...SO IT WILL BE POSSIBLE TO SEE A STRONGER STORM PRODUCE SMALL
HAIL. OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE SUNNY TOWARDS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
BEHIND THE FRONT...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM EVERYWHERE WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 348 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN ZONES ON SATURDAY AS
SFC WARM FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED INLAND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR AND
COULD BECOME THE TRIGGER FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS. LATEST NAM BUFR SOUNDING
AT KHYR SUGGESTS MUCAPE VALUES EXCEED 1000 J/KG WITH A SHALLOW LAYER
OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO SUPPORT A FEW SHORT LIVED WEAK CELLS.

MAIN FOCUS IS ON LONG WAVE TROUGH THAT TRANSLATES ACROSS THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER MANITOBA/WESTERN
ONTARIO SUNDAY. THIS LOW WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY PERIODS. LATEST LONG
RANGE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A SLOWER TREND WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION...SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
ACCORDINGLY. AT THIS TIME THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED
DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING TIME FRAME. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON TIMING. FOR NOW...A FEW
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG SUNDAY EVENING WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 IN MOST AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN
LOCATIONS ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP READINGS IN THE 60S AND 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING...SLOWING MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDER HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR THIS TAF SET. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THERE IS
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  59  78  56  73 /  10  40  20  10
INL  58  77  51  81 /  40  20  10  10
BRD  55  79  56  83 /  10  40  10  10
HYR  55  78  55  79 /   0  50  30  20
ASX  57  77  55  73 /  10  40  40  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 021750
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE OF CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET EARLY TODAY. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
EXIST OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE NORTH OF TWO
HARBORS.

CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE TONIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
THE 50S. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AGAIN...BUT
POSSIBLY DEVELOP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE BORDERLAND REGION. THE SFC FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER S/W WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND A PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE BL CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD AMTS AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TO KEEP
THINGS QUIET FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... HOPEFULLY
ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...TO THE
LOW 80S TOWARDS BRAINERD.

OUR NEXT WEATHERMAKER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HAVE HAD SOME CONCERNS FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST SHEAR
WILL BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING...SLOWING MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDER HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR THIS TAF SET. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THERE IS
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  59  76  56 /  20  20  50  10
INL  80  58  77  51 /  20  50  20   0
BRD  77  56  80  56 /  10  20  40  10
HYR  76  55  77  55 /  10  10  30  30
ASX  77  58  77  55 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 021750
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE OF CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET EARLY TODAY. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
EXIST OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE NORTH OF TWO
HARBORS.

CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE TONIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
THE 50S. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AGAIN...BUT
POSSIBLY DEVELOP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE BORDERLAND REGION. THE SFC FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER S/W WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND A PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE BL CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD AMTS AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TO KEEP
THINGS QUIET FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... HOPEFULLY
ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...TO THE
LOW 80S TOWARDS BRAINERD.

OUR NEXT WEATHERMAKER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HAVE HAD SOME CONCERNS FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST SHEAR
WILL BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT PERIODS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS EVENING...SLOWING MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF ANY THUNDER HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VICINITY
SHOWERS FOR THIS TAF SET. AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED IF THERE IS
ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  59  76  56 /  20  20  50  10
INL  80  58  77  51 /  20  50  20   0
BRD  77  56  80  56 /  10  20  40  10
HYR  76  55  77  55 /  10  10  30  30
ASX  77  58  77  55 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 021152
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
652 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE OF CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET EARLY TODAY. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
EXIST OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE NORTH OF TWO
HARBORS.

CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE TONIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
THE 50S. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AGAIN...BUT
POSSIBLY DEVELOP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE BORDERLAND REGION. THE SFC FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER S/W WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND A PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE BL CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD AMTS AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TO KEEP
THINGS QUIET FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... HOPEFULLY
ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...TO THE
LOW 80S TOWARDS BRAINERD.

OUR NEXT WEATHERMAKER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HAVE HAD SOME CONCERNS FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST SHEAR
WILL BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOG AROUND KHIB IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 13Z THIS
MORNING...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
REMAINING SITES SHOULD ALSO BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO POP UP OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA GENERALLY 21Z-03Z...BUT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. AFTER 05Z SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KINL AND
THEN KHIB AROUND 08Z...AND HAVE PUT IN VCSH TO THESE LOCATIONS FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  59  76  56 /  20  20  50  10
INL  79  58  77  51 /  20  50  20   0
BRD  80  56  80  56 /  10  20  40  10
HYR  78  55  77  55 /  10  10  30  30
ASX  79  58  77  55 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 021152
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
652 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE OF CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET EARLY TODAY. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
EXIST OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE NORTH OF TWO
HARBORS.

CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE TONIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
THE 50S. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AGAIN...BUT
POSSIBLY DEVELOP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE BORDERLAND REGION. THE SFC FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER S/W WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND A PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE BL CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD AMTS AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TO KEEP
THINGS QUIET FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... HOPEFULLY
ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...TO THE
LOW 80S TOWARDS BRAINERD.

OUR NEXT WEATHERMAKER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HAVE HAD SOME CONCERNS FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST SHEAR
WILL BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

FOG AROUND KHIB IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY 13Z THIS
MORNING...BEFORE RETURNING TO VFR FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
REMAINING SITES SHOULD ALSO BE VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SHOWERS
AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO POP UP OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF
MINNESOTA GENERALLY 21Z-03Z...BUT SHOULD STAY AWAY FROM THE
TERMINALS. AFTER 05Z SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO KINL AND
THEN KHIB AROUND 08Z...AND HAVE PUT IN VCSH TO THESE LOCATIONS FOR
NOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  59  76  56 /  20  20  50  10
INL  79  58  77  51 /  20  50  20   0
BRD  80  56  80  56 /  10  20  40  10
HYR  78  55  77  55 /  10  10  30  30
ASX  79  58  77  55 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 020839
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE OF CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET EARLY TODAY. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
EXIST OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE NORTH OF TWO
HARBORS.

CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE TONIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
THE 50S. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AGAIN...BUT
POSSIBLY DEVELOP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE BORDERLAND REGION. THE SFC FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER S/W WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND A PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE BL CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD AMTS AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TO KEEP
THINGS QUIET FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... HOPEFULLY
ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...TO THE
LOW 80S TOWARDS BRAINERD.

OUR NEXT WEATHERMAKER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HAVE HAD SOME CONCERNS FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST SHEAR
WILL BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE
A VCSH MENTION AT HIB AND INL IN THE MID MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  59  76  56 /  10  20  50  10
INL  79  58  77  51 /  20  50  20   0
BRD  80  56  80  56 /  10  20  40  10
HYR  78  55  77  55 /  10  10  30  30
ASX  79  58  77  55 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 020839
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
ONCE AGAIN FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...AND ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
THE DAY FRIDAY ALONG A PASSING COLD FRONT. WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO BE OF CONCERN TODAY AND FRIDAY.

WEAK RIDGING ALOFT COMBINED WITH A SFC HIGH OVER THE WRN GREAT LAKES
THIS MORNING WILL KEEP CONDITIONS QUIET EARLY TODAY. A WEAK SFC
TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW LATE THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...AND WORK IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY AND
STEEPENING LAPSE RATES OVER THE ARROWHEAD TO PRODUCE A ROUND OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL
EXIST OVER LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S
OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. SLIGHTLY
COOLER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH SHORE NORTH OF TWO
HARBORS.

CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE TONIGHT AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES COOL INTO
THE 50S. THE SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE AGAIN...BUT
POSSIBLY DEVELOP AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT INCOMING COLD FRONT CLOSER
TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE BORDERLAND REGION. THE SFC FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED UPPER S/W WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE DAY
FRIDAY AND COMBINE WITH INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR IN THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS.
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S...AND A PUSH OF
MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH WILL CREATE BL CAPE VALUES INTO THE 500-1000
J/KG RANGE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED...HOWEVER SMALL HAIL...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD AMTS AROUND A QUARTER OF
AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER RAIN NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN THE EVENING.
OTHERWISE...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TO KEEP
THINGS QUIET FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... HOPEFULLY
ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS DISPLAYS. SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND HUMID
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S OVER THE TIP OF THE ARROWHEAD...TO THE
LOW 80S TOWARDS BRAINERD.

OUR NEXT WEATHERMAKER WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.  HAVE HAD SOME CONCERNS FOR SEVERE
STORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  FOR NOW...IT APPEARS THE BEST SHEAR
WILL BE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH...EVEN THOUGH PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL
BE IN PLACE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.  TEMPERATURES ON
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH HIGHS FROM
THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S.  IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER ON MONDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE 70S BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
NORTHWEST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT SAGS THROUGH THE
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE
A VCSH MENTION AT HIB AND INL IN THE MID MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  59  76  56 /  10  20  50  10
INL  79  58  77  51 /  20  50  20   0
BRD  80  56  80  56 /  10  20  40  10
HYR  78  55  77  55 /  10  10  30  30
ASX  79  58  77  55 /  10  10  40  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 020550
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER CASS COUNTY AND HAVE REMOVED.
PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY AND HAVE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. RES OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE
A VCSH MENTION AT HIB AND INL IN THE MID MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  78  56  76 /  10  30  20  10
INL  58  77  53  82 /  30  30  10  10
BRD  56  79  56  83 /  10  30  10  10
HYR  54  77  54  81 /  10  20  20  20
ASX  56  77  55  77 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 020550
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER CASS COUNTY AND HAVE REMOVED.
PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY AND HAVE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. RES OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE
A VCSH MENTION AT HIB AND INL IN THE MID MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  78  56  76 /  10  30  20  10
INL  58  77  53  82 /  30  30  10  10
BRD  56  79  56  83 /  10  30  10  10
HYR  54  77  54  81 /  10  20  20  20
ASX  56  77  55  77 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 020550
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER CASS COUNTY AND HAVE REMOVED.
PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY AND HAVE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. RES OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE
A VCSH MENTION AT HIB AND INL IN THE MID MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  78  56  76 /  10  30  20  10
INL  58  77  53  82 /  30  30  10  10
BRD  56  79  56  83 /  10  30  10  10
HYR  54  77  54  81 /  10  20  20  20
ASX  56  77  55  77 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 020550
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1250 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER CASS COUNTY AND HAVE REMOVED.
PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY AND HAVE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. RES OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1249 AM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. HAVE
A VCSH MENTION AT HIB AND INL IN THE MID MORNING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROF MOVES NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  78  56  76 /  10  30  20  10
INL  58  77  53  82 /  30  30  10  10
BRD  56  79  56  83 /  10  30  10  10
HYR  54  77  54  81 /  10  20  20  20
ASX  56  77  55  77 /  10  30  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 020435
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1135 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER CASS COUNTY AND HAVE REMOVED.
PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY AND HAVE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. RES OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT INL AS
A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSOLVING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 020435
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1135 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

THE RAIN SHOWERS HAVE ENDED OVER CASS COUNTY AND HAVE REMOVED.
PATCHY FOG IS BEGINNING TO FORM AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY AND HAVE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. RES OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT INL AS
A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSOLVING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF





000
FXUS63 KDLH 020256
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY AND HAVE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. RES OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT INL AS
A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSOLVING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 020256
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 956 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

SHOWERS PERSIST OVER NORTHERN CASS COUNTY AND HAVE UPDATED TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND. RES OF THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT INL AS
A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSOLVING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF





000
FXUS63 KDLH 012349
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT INL AS
A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSOLVING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 012349
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT INL AS
A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSOLVING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 012349
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A PESKY BATCH OF SHOWERS CONTINUES TO PROPAGATE FROM FAR WESTERN
ITASCA COUNTY INTO NORTHERN CASS COUNTY. HAVE ADDED SOME POPS TO
THIS AREA FOR MUCH OF THE EVENING. REMOVED THE POPS OVER THE FAR
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA AS CLOUDS HAVE DISSIPATED. PLENTY OF
ELEVATED SMOKE WILL COVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT. MADE SOME
OTHER MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT INL AS
A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSOLVING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  10  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF





000
FXUS63 KDLH 012325
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT INL AS
A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSOLVING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  20  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF





000
FXUS63 KDLH 012325
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT INL AS
A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSOLVING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  20  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 012325
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT INL AS
A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSOLVING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  20  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF





000
FXUS63 KDLH 012325
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN
ARROWHEAD...SOUTH ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY.
LATEST GFS BUFR SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE IN THE MID LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING
OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND
FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO SINK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE
SUPERBLEND GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST. ADDED A MENTION OF VCSH AT INL AS
A BATCH OF SHOWERS IS ANTICIPATED TO CLIP THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AROUND 08Z BEFORE DISSOLVING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  20  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 012039
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
339 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MINN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. LATEST GFS BUFR
SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE MID
LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDTIONS TO SINK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS GENERALLY ABOVE 4KFT WILL BE FOUND THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WILL BE ISOLATED...CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY A VCSH AT KINL AND KHIB.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  20  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 012039
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
339 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER LAKE SUPERIOR REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN
THROUGH TOMORROW AS IT GRADUALLY DRIFTS EASTWARD. THIS MEANS COOLER
TEMPS BY THE LAKE AND GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER OVERALL. AWAY FROM THE
LAKE TEMPS ARE SEASONABLE DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AT LOW LEVELS
CAUSING SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF MINNESOTA. PRECIP
CHANCES ARE FAIRLY LOW OVERALL THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN COMBINATION WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES COULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...AFTERNOON CLOUDS MAY STICK AROUND FOR A BIT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR AN EARLY EVENING SHOWER
OR TWO ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER TO IRON RANGE REGION. OTHER
THAN THAT...DRY WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG OVER THE LAKE.
GIVEN HOW COOL TEMPS DROPPED LAST NIGHT DECIDED TO REDUCE LOWS IN
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN BELOW ALL GUIDANCE...IN THE LOW 40S...AND WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MID TO UPPER 30S AGAIN TONIGHT GIVEN
CLEAR SKIES AND HIGH PRESSURE NEARLY OVERHEAD. ELSEWHERE LOWS IN THE
LOW 50S.

THURSDAY...WARMER WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND A WEAK
MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. SBCAPE VALUES OF 100-500 J/KG WILL
EXIST MAINLY ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER INTO THE TIP OF THE
ARROWHEAD REGION. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER...THOUGH ANY
STRONGER STORM OR TWO MIGHT BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...REACHING 80 IN A FEW
SPOTS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

A LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK. THE BLOCKING RIDGE WILL POSITION UPPER
MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION IN A ACTIVE NW FLOW AS SEVERAL
EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES TRACK ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

MAIN FOCUS ON THE VORT MAX THAT DROPS OUT OF MANITOBA AND PASSES
OVER THE NORTHLAND DURING THE LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY TIME
FRAME. THE SHORT WAVE DEVELOPS A SFC REFLECTION TROUGH AND TRIGGERS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS IT CROSSES OVER THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER AND ENTERS NW MINN LATE SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT THAT THE VORT MAX/SFC TROUGH TRACK OVER NORTH CENTRAL MN
SAT EVENING...PUSHING EAST OVER THE TIP OF THE MN ARROWHEAD...SOUTH
ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN BY MID-DAY SUNDAY. LATEST GFS BUFR
SOUNDING AT KHYR AND KELO SUGGESTS SUFFICIENT MOISTURE IN THE MID
LEVELS AND CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...OF THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
SLOWS...THE THUNDER THREAT MAY EXTEND FURTHER WEST INTO THE NORTH
CENTRAL MN ZONES.

THE WAVE SUNDAY IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT VORT MAX THAT DROPS
OVER THE NORTHLAND MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH TIMING THESE FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVES IS DIFFICULT...THERE IS REASONABLE MODEL AGREEMENT
THAT CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ONTARIO...ALLOWING SFC
RIDGING WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDTIONS TO SINK INTO THE FORECAST
AREA FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. HAVE LOWERED POPS FROM THE SUPERBLEND
GUIDANCE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS TREND.

LATEST ECM/GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER SHORT WAVE IN THE NW FLOW WILL BRING
A THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAIN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN TIMING AND
STRENGTH WITH THE ECM THE MOST AGGRESSIVE AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS GENERALLY ABOVE 4KFT WILL BE FOUND THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WILL BE ISOLATED...CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY A VCSH AT KINL AND KHIB.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  52  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  30
INL  52  80  58  77 /  20  20  30  30
BRD  56  80  56  79 /   0  10  10  30
HYR  43  77  54  77 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  46  79  56  77 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 011744
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED WEAK STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NERN MN...AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A RELATIVELY
COOL AIR MASS ALOFT IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A NARROW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
SLIDES TO THE S/SE. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
SRN MN AND INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF AN ACTIVE AND COOL FLOW ALOFT OVER A WARM SFC LAYER
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.

THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTHWARD. THE SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE A GREATER
INFLUENCE OVER THE SRN COUNTIES. A WEAK INCOMING S/W ALOFT FROM
THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION LATER
TODAY TO PRODUCE THE CONVECTION. WILL ONLY SEE A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SO THE THREAT OF
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING
IS ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DROPS. HOWEVER...ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY LOW 80S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A BUMP IN HUMIDITY VALUES AND ALLOW
FOR SLIGHTLY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONVECTION COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES THROUGH OUR PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. FRIDAY HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR
SURGING INTO THIS SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD HELP BRING MAX
TEMPS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
THE WEAKER RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE QUIETER WEATHER WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES...THOUGH
IT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS DUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
THIS COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG.  HOWEVER...THE TIMING
IS A LITTLE LATER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND AM BEGINNING TO
HAVE SOME DOUBTS OVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  TEMPERATURES TO GET
BACK UP INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ONCE AGAIN.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
SOME COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS GENERALLY ABOVE 4KFT WILL BE FOUND THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WILL BE ISOLATED...CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY A VCSH AT KINL AND KHIB.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  52  75  58 /   0   0  10  10
INL  76  53  78  58 /  30  10  20  30
BRD  76  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  73  48  78  55 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  70  48  77  56 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 011744
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1244 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED WEAK STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NERN MN...AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A RELATIVELY
COOL AIR MASS ALOFT IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A NARROW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
SLIDES TO THE S/SE. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
SRN MN AND INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF AN ACTIVE AND COOL FLOW ALOFT OVER A WARM SFC LAYER
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.

THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTHWARD. THE SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE A GREATER
INFLUENCE OVER THE SRN COUNTIES. A WEAK INCOMING S/W ALOFT FROM
THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION LATER
TODAY TO PRODUCE THE CONVECTION. WILL ONLY SEE A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SO THE THREAT OF
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING
IS ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DROPS. HOWEVER...ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY LOW 80S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A BUMP IN HUMIDITY VALUES AND ALLOW
FOR SLIGHTLY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONVECTION COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES THROUGH OUR PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. FRIDAY HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR
SURGING INTO THIS SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD HELP BRING MAX
TEMPS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
THE WEAKER RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE QUIETER WEATHER WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES...THOUGH
IT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS DUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
THIS COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG.  HOWEVER...THE TIMING
IS A LITTLE LATER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND AM BEGINNING TO
HAVE SOME DOUBTS OVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  TEMPERATURES TO GET
BACK UP INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ONCE AGAIN.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
SOME COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

BROKEN MID LEVEL CEILINGS GENERALLY ABOVE 4KFT WILL BE FOUND THIS
AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WILL BE ISOLATED...CAN NOT RULE OUT A SHOWER
ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY
EVENING. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY A VCSH AT KINL AND KHIB.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
WITH LIGHT WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  52  75  58 /   0   0  10  10
INL  76  53  78  58 /  30  10  20  30
BRD  76  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  73  48  78  55 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  70  48  77  56 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 011153
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED WEAK STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NERN MN...AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A RELATIVELY
COOL AIR MASS ALOFT IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A NARROW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
SLIDES TO THE S/SE. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
SRN MN AND INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF AN ACTIVE AND COOL FLOW ALOFT OVER A WARM SFC LAYER
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.

THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTHWARD. THE SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE A GREATER
INFLUENCE OVER THE SRN COUNTIES. A WEAK INCOMING S/W ALOFT FROM
THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION LATER
TODAY TO PRODUCE THE CONVECTION. WILL ONLY SEE A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SO THE THREAT OF
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING
IS ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DROPS. HOWEVER...ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY LOW 80S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A BUMP IN HUMIDITY VALUES AND ALLOW
FOR SLIGHTLY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONVECTION COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES THROUGH OUR PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. FRIDAY HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR
SURGING INTO THIS SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD HELP BRING MAX
TEMPS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
THE WEAKER RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE QUIETER WEATHER WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES...THOUGH
IT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS DUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
THIS COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG.  HOWEVER...THE TIMING
IS A LITTLE LATER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND AM BEGINNING TO
HAVE SOME DOUBTS OVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  TEMPERATURES TO GET
BACK UP INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ONCE AGAIN.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
SOME COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON THAT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS GROUPS FOR KINL AND
KHIB. BY THE TIME THIS CONVECTION APPROACHES KDLH WE WILL HAVE
LOST A LOT OF THE INSTABILITY AND HAVE CONVERTED TO VCSH FOR AFTER
03Z. KBRD AND KHYR TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  52  75  58 /   0   0  10  10
INL  76  53  78  58 /  30  10  20  30
BRD  76  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  73  48  78  55 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  70  48  77  56 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 011153
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED WEAK STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NERN MN...AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A RELATIVELY
COOL AIR MASS ALOFT IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A NARROW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
SLIDES TO THE S/SE. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
SRN MN AND INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF AN ACTIVE AND COOL FLOW ALOFT OVER A WARM SFC LAYER
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.

THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTHWARD. THE SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE A GREATER
INFLUENCE OVER THE SRN COUNTIES. A WEAK INCOMING S/W ALOFT FROM
THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION LATER
TODAY TO PRODUCE THE CONVECTION. WILL ONLY SEE A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SO THE THREAT OF
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING
IS ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DROPS. HOWEVER...ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY LOW 80S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A BUMP IN HUMIDITY VALUES AND ALLOW
FOR SLIGHTLY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONVECTION COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES THROUGH OUR PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. FRIDAY HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR
SURGING INTO THIS SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD HELP BRING MAX
TEMPS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
THE WEAKER RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE QUIETER WEATHER WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES...THOUGH
IT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS DUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
THIS COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG.  HOWEVER...THE TIMING
IS A LITTLE LATER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND AM BEGINNING TO
HAVE SOME DOUBTS OVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  TEMPERATURES TO GET
BACK UP INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ONCE AGAIN.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
SOME COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON THAT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS GROUPS FOR KINL AND
KHIB. BY THE TIME THIS CONVECTION APPROACHES KDLH WE WILL HAVE
LOST A LOT OF THE INSTABILITY AND HAVE CONVERTED TO VCSH FOR AFTER
03Z. KBRD AND KHYR TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  52  75  58 /   0   0  10  10
INL  76  53  78  58 /  30  10  20  30
BRD  76  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  73  48  78  55 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  70  48  77  56 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 011153
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED WEAK STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NERN MN...AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A RELATIVELY
COOL AIR MASS ALOFT IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A NARROW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
SLIDES TO THE S/SE. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
SRN MN AND INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF AN ACTIVE AND COOL FLOW ALOFT OVER A WARM SFC LAYER
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.

THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTHWARD. THE SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE A GREATER
INFLUENCE OVER THE SRN COUNTIES. A WEAK INCOMING S/W ALOFT FROM
THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION LATER
TODAY TO PRODUCE THE CONVECTION. WILL ONLY SEE A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SO THE THREAT OF
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING
IS ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DROPS. HOWEVER...ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY LOW 80S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A BUMP IN HUMIDITY VALUES AND ALLOW
FOR SLIGHTLY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONVECTION COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES THROUGH OUR PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. FRIDAY HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR
SURGING INTO THIS SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD HELP BRING MAX
TEMPS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
THE WEAKER RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE QUIETER WEATHER WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES...THOUGH
IT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS DUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
THIS COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG.  HOWEVER...THE TIMING
IS A LITTLE LATER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND AM BEGINNING TO
HAVE SOME DOUBTS OVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  TEMPERATURES TO GET
BACK UP INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ONCE AGAIN.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
SOME COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON THAT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS GROUPS FOR KINL AND
KHIB. BY THE TIME THIS CONVECTION APPROACHES KDLH WE WILL HAVE
LOST A LOT OF THE INSTABILITY AND HAVE CONVERTED TO VCSH FOR AFTER
03Z. KBRD AND KHYR TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  52  75  58 /   0   0  10  10
INL  76  53  78  58 /  30  10  20  30
BRD  76  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  73  48  78  55 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  70  48  77  56 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 011153
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

UPDATED AVIATION SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED WEAK STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NERN MN...AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A RELATIVELY
COOL AIR MASS ALOFT IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A NARROW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
SLIDES TO THE S/SE. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
SRN MN AND INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF AN ACTIVE AND COOL FLOW ALOFT OVER A WARM SFC LAYER
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.

THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTHWARD. THE SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE A GREATER
INFLUENCE OVER THE SRN COUNTIES. A WEAK INCOMING S/W ALOFT FROM
THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION LATER
TODAY TO PRODUCE THE CONVECTION. WILL ONLY SEE A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SO THE THREAT OF
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING
IS ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DROPS. HOWEVER...ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY LOW 80S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A BUMP IN HUMIDITY VALUES AND ALLOW
FOR SLIGHTLY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONVECTION COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES THROUGH OUR PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. FRIDAY HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR
SURGING INTO THIS SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD HELP BRING MAX
TEMPS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
THE WEAKER RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE QUIETER WEATHER WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES...THOUGH
IT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS DUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
THIS COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG.  HOWEVER...THE TIMING
IS A LITTLE LATER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND AM BEGINNING TO
HAVE SOME DOUBTS OVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  TEMPERATURES TO GET
BACK UP INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ONCE AGAIN.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
SOME COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON THAT SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THESE WILL MAINLY BE OVER FAR
NORTHERN MINNESOTA...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCTS GROUPS FOR KINL AND
KHIB. BY THE TIME THIS CONVECTION APPROACHES KDLH WE WILL HAVE
LOST A LOT OF THE INSTABILITY AND HAVE CONVERTED TO VCSH FOR AFTER
03Z. KBRD AND KHYR TO REMAIN DRY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  52  75  58 /   0   0  10  10
INL  76  53  78  58 /  30  10  20  30
BRD  76  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  73  48  78  55 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  70  48  77  56 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...LE
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...LE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 010837
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED WEAK STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NERN MN...AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A RELATIVELY
COOL AIR MASS ALOFT IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A NARROW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
SLIDES TO THE S/SE. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
SRN MN AND INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF AN ACTIVE AND COOL FLOW ALOFT OVER A WARM SFC LAYER
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.

THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTHWARD. THE SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE A GREATER
INFLUCENCE OVER THE SRN COUNTIES. A WEAK INCOMING S/W ALOFT FROM
THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION LATER
TODAY TO PRODUCE THE CONVECTION. WILL ONLY SEE A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SO THE THREAT OF
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING
IS ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DROPS. HOWEVER...ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY LOW 80S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A BUMP IN HUMIDITY VALUES AND ALLOW
FOR SLIGHTLY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONVECTION COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES THROUGH OUR PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. FRIDAY HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR
SURGING INTO THIS SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD HELP BRING MAX
TEMPS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
THE WEAKER RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE QUIETER WEATHER WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES...THOUGH
IT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS DUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
THIS COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG.  HOWEVER...THE TIMING
IS A LITTLE LATER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND AM BEGINNING TO
HAVE SOME DOUBTS OVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  TEMPERATURES TO GET
BACK UP INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ONCE AGAIN.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
SOME COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  52  75  58 /   0   0  10  10
INL  76  53  78  58 /  30  10  20  30
BRD  76  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  73  48  78  55 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  70  48  77  56 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GSF/LE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 010837
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
337 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR ISOLATED WEAK STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR NERN MN...AND ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION DURING
THE DAY THURSDAY AS WELL. WILL ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY.

NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST
AND WRN GREAT LAKES AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH A RELATIVELY
COOL AIR MASS ALOFT IN PLACE. AT THE SURFACE AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST
TODAY AS A NARROW TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS
SLIDES TO THE S/SE. THE SFC RIDGE WILL BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER
SRN MN AND INTO THE SRN GREAT LAKES DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. THIS
PATTERN WILL BE CONDUCIVE FOR MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...BUT THE
PRESENCE OF AN ACTIVE AND COOL FLOW ALOFT OVER A WARM SFC LAYER
WILL ALLOW FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTION
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND.

THE AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE CONVECTION TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE
IRON RANGE AND POINTS NORTHWARD. THE SFC RIDGE WILL HAVE A GREATER
INFLUCENCE OVER THE SRN COUNTIES. A WEAK INCOMING S/W ALOFT FROM
THE NORTH WILL COMBINE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION LATER
TODAY TO PRODUCE THE CONVECTION. WILL ONLY SEE A COUPLE HUNDRED
J/KG OF CAPE AND VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR...SO THE THREAT OF
STRONG OR SEVERE STORMS IS LOW. HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR LIGHTNING
IS ALWAYS A CONCERN WITH ANY STORM.

CONDITIONS STABILIZE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS DROPS. HOWEVER...ON THURSDAY TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE 70S AND POSSIBLY LOW 80S. THE WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH A BUMP IN HUMIDITY VALUES AND ALLOW
FOR SLIGHTLY HIGH INSTABILITY OVER THE NRN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THESE CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS. CONVECTION COULD BE MORE ORGANIZED ON
THURSDAY...BUT THE THREAT FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS STILL REMAINS
RELATIVELY LOW.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DIVES THROUGH OUR PREVAILING NORTHWEST FLOW AND
BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. FRIDAY HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER
STORMS...BUT DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS AT THIS TIME. WARM AIR
SURGING INTO THIS SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD HELP BRING MAX
TEMPS UP INTO THE UPPER 70S AND LOWER 80S ON FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE AREA ON SATURDAY...ALONG WITH
THE WEAKER RIDGING AT THE SURFACE TO PRODUCE QUIETER WEATHER WITH
HIGHS PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 80S AROUND THE BRAINERD LAKES...THOUGH
IT WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.

AN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH AXIS IS DUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE
MIDWEST ON SUNDAY...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH
THIS COLD FRONT AS THE FRONT IS VERY STRONG.  HOWEVER...THE TIMING
IS A LITTLE LATER THAN IN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND AM BEGINNING TO
HAVE SOME DOUBTS OVER THE SEVERE POTENTIAL.  TEMPERATURES TO GET
BACK UP INTO THE MID 70S TO LOW 80S ONCE AGAIN.  THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SETTLES OVER THE AREA FOR THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
SOME COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  72  52  75  58 /   0   0  10  10
INL  76  53  78  58 /  30  10  20  30
BRD  76  52  77  57 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  73  48  78  55 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  70  48  77  56 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...LE
AVIATION...GSF/LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 010534 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1234 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ALLOWED THE BEACH HAZARD TO EXPIRE ON TIME. NE WIND CONTINUES
ALONG THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED
AS WELL AS WAVES. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT BROUGHT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL
DAY FOR THE END OF JUNE. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH 70
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA. LIGHT WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS...WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND...ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE 50S.

THE H85 TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SW MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER...IN THE 50S TO 60S...ALONG THE
SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
FURTHER EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...SUSPECT SOME
OF THIS MAY BE CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW CHANGES FROM
LATE THIS WEEK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EXPECTED THERE ARE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH A
PRETTY WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
IN A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO INTO MON. AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BEHIND
IT. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY...THOUGH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEAK CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO DIP DOWN AND
BRING A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF CANADA CAUSING A SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH. GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME BROAD DISAGREEMENTS...WITH
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DEPICTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THIS EARLIER PROGRESSION TURNS OUT TO BE A GOOD
SOLUTION THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
MORE DETAILS...BUT AT THIS POINT SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  76  57  76 /  10  10  10  30
INL  55  78  57  77 /  10  20  30  20
BRD  53  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
HYR  48  79  55  76 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  47  76  54  75 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF/LE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 010534 CCA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1234 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ALLOWED THE BEACH HAZARD TO EXPIRE ON TIME. NE WIND CONTINUES
ALONG THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED
AS WELL AS WAVES. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT BROUGHT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL
DAY FOR THE END OF JUNE. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH 70
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA. LIGHT WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS...WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND...ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE 50S.

THE H85 TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SW MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER...IN THE 50S TO 60S...ALONG THE
SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
FURTHER EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...SUSPECT SOME
OF THIS MAY BE CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW CHANGES FROM
LATE THIS WEEK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EXPECTED THERE ARE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH A
PRETTY WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
IN A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO INTO MON. AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BEHIND
IT. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY...THOUGH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEAK CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO DIP DOWN AND
BRING A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF CANADA CAUSING A SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH. GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME BROAD DISAGREEMENTS...WITH
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DEPICTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THIS EARLIER PROGRESSION TURNS OUT TO BE A GOOD
SOLUTION THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
MORE DETAILS...BUT AT THIS POINT SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  76  57  76 /  10  10  10  30
INL  55  78  57  77 /  10  20  30  20
BRD  53  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
HYR  48  79  55  76 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  47  76  54  75 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF/LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 010534
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1234 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ALLOWED THE BEACH HAZARD TO EXPIRE ON TIME. NE WIND CONTINUES
ALONG THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED
AS WELL AS WAVES. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT BROUGHT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL
DAY FOR THE END OF JUNE. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH 70
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA. LIGHT WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS...WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND...ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE 50S.

THE H85 TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SW MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER...IN THE 50S TO 60S...ALONG THE
SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
FURTHER EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...SUSPECT SOME
OF THIS MAY BE CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW CHANGES FROM
LATE THIS WEEK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EXPECTED THERE ARE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH A
PRETTY WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
IN A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO INTO MON. AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BEHIND
IT. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY...THOUGH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEAK CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO DIP DOWN AND
BRING A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF CANADA CAUSING A SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH. GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME BROAD DISAGREEMENTS...WITH
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DEPICTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THIS EARLIER PROGRESSION TURNS OUT TO BE A GOOD
SOLUTION THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
MORE DETAILS...BUT AT THIS POINT SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE VICINNTY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  76  57  76 /  10  10  10  30
INL  55  78  57  77 /  10  20  30  20
BRD  53  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
HYR  48  79  55  76 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  47  76  54  75 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF/LE




000
FXUS63 KDLH 010534
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1234 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ALLOWED THE BEACH HAZARD TO EXPIRE ON TIME. NE WIND CONTINUES
ALONG THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED
AS WELL AS WAVES. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT BROUGHT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL
DAY FOR THE END OF JUNE. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH 70
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA. LIGHT WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS...WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND...ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE 50S.

THE H85 TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SW MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER...IN THE 50S TO 60S...ALONG THE
SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
FURTHER EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...SUSPECT SOME
OF THIS MAY BE CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW CHANGES FROM
LATE THIS WEEK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EXPECTED THERE ARE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH A
PRETTY WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
IN A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO INTO MON. AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BEHIND
IT. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY...THOUGH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEAK CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO DIP DOWN AND
BRING A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF CANADA CAUSING A SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH. GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME BROAD DISAGREEMENTS...WITH
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DEPICTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THIS EARLIER PROGRESSION TURNS OUT TO BE A GOOD
SOLUTION THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
MORE DETAILS...BUT AT THIS POINT SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT WED JUL 1 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN THE VICINNTY THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS
THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  51  76  57  76 /  10  10  10  30
INL  55  78  57  77 /  10  20  30  20
BRD  53  78  57  78 /  10  10  10  20
HYR  48  79  55  76 /   0  10  10  20
ASX  47  76  54  75 /   0  10  10  30

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF/LE





000
FXUS63 KDLH 010108
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
808 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ALLOWED THE BEACH HAZARD TO EXPIRE ON TIME. NE WIND CONTINUES
ALONG THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED
AS WELL AS WAVES. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT BROUGHT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL
DAY FOR THE END OF JUNE. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH 70
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA. LIGHT WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS...WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND...ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE 50S.

THE H85 TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SW MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER...IN THE 50S TO 60S...ALONG THE
SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
FURTHER EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...SUSPECT SOME
OF THIS MAY BE CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW CHANGES FROM
LATE THIS WEEK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EXPECTED THERE ARE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH A
PRETTY WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
IN A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO INTO MON. AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BEHIND
IT. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY...THOUGH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEAK CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO DIP DOWN AND
BRING A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF CANADA CAUSING A SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH. GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME BROAD DISAGREEMENTS...WITH
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DEPICTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THIS EARLIER PROGRESSION TURNS OUT TO BE A GOOD
SOLUTION THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
MORE DETAILS...BUT AT THIS POINT SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...LOOK FOR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  51  76 /   0   0  10  10
INL  45  75  55  78 /  10  10  10  20
BRD  52  73  53  78 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  43  70  48  79 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  43  67  47  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 010108
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
808 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ALLOWED THE BEACH HAZARD TO EXPIRE ON TIME. NE WIND CONTINUES
ALONG THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED
AS WELL AS WAVES. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT BROUGHT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL
DAY FOR THE END OF JUNE. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH 70
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA. LIGHT WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS...WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND...ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE 50S.

THE H85 TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SW MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER...IN THE 50S TO 60S...ALONG THE
SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
FURTHER EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...SUSPECT SOME
OF THIS MAY BE CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW CHANGES FROM
LATE THIS WEEK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EXPECTED THERE ARE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH A
PRETTY WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
IN A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO INTO MON. AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BEHIND
IT. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY...THOUGH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEAK CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO DIP DOWN AND
BRING A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF CANADA CAUSING A SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH. GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME BROAD DISAGREEMENTS...WITH
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DEPICTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THIS EARLIER PROGRESSION TURNS OUT TO BE A GOOD
SOLUTION THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
MORE DETAILS...BUT AT THIS POINT SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...LOOK FOR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  51  76 /   0   0  10  10
INL  45  75  55  78 /  10  10  10  20
BRD  52  73  53  78 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  43  70  48  79 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  43  67  47  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 010108
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
808 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ALLOWED THE BEACH HAZARD TO EXPIRE ON TIME. NE WIND CONTINUES
ALONG THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED
AS WELL AS WAVES. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT BROUGHT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL
DAY FOR THE END OF JUNE. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH 70
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA. LIGHT WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS...WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND...ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE 50S.

THE H85 TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SW MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER...IN THE 50S TO 60S...ALONG THE
SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
FURTHER EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...SUSPECT SOME
OF THIS MAY BE CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW CHANGES FROM
LATE THIS WEEK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EXPECTED THERE ARE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH A
PRETTY WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
IN A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO INTO MON. AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BEHIND
IT. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY...THOUGH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEAK CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO DIP DOWN AND
BRING A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF CANADA CAUSING A SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH. GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME BROAD DISAGREEMENTS...WITH
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DEPICTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THIS EARLIER PROGRESSION TURNS OUT TO BE A GOOD
SOLUTION THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
MORE DETAILS...BUT AT THIS POINT SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...LOOK FOR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  51  76 /   0   0  10  10
INL  45  75  55  78 /  10  10  10  20
BRD  52  73  53  78 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  43  70  48  79 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  43  67  47  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF





000
FXUS63 KDLH 010108
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
808 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 808 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

ALLOWED THE BEACH HAZARD TO EXPIRE ON TIME. NE WIND CONTINUES
ALONG THE HEAD OF LAKE SUPERIOR...BUT HAVE DIMINISHED
AS WELL AS WAVES. REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT BROUGHT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL
DAY FOR THE END OF JUNE. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH 70
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA. LIGHT WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS...WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND...ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE 50S.

THE H85 TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SW MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER...IN THE 50S TO 60S...ALONG THE
SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
FURTHER EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...SUSPECT SOME
OF THIS MAY BE CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW CHANGES FROM
LATE THIS WEEK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EXPECTED THERE ARE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH A
PRETTY WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
IN A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO INTO MON. AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BEHIND
IT. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY...THOUGH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEAK CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO DIP DOWN AND
BRING A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF CANADA CAUSING A SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH. GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME BROAD DISAGREEMENTS...WITH
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DEPICTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THIS EARLIER PROGRESSION TURNS OUT TO BE A GOOD
SOLUTION THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
MORE DETAILS...BUT AT THIS POINT SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...LOOK FOR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  51  76 /   0   0  10  10
INL  45  75  55  78 /  10  10  10  20
BRD  52  73  53  78 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  43  70  48  79 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  43  67  47  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF





000
FXUS63 KDLH 302314
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
614 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT BROUGHT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL
DAY FOR THE END OF JUNE. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH 70
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA. LIGHT WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS...WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND...ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE 50S.

THE H85 TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SW MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER...IN THE 50S TO 60S...ALONG THE
SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
FURTHER EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...SUSPECT SOME
OF THIS MAY BE CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW CHANGES FROM
LATE THIS WEEK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EXPECTED THERE ARE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH A
PRETTY WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
IN A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO INTO MON. AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BEHIND
IT. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY...THOUGH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEAK CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO DIP DOWN AND
BRING A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF CANADA CAUSING A SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH. GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME BROAD DISAGREEMENTS...WITH
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DEPICTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THIS EARLIER PROGRESSION TURNS OUT TO BE A GOOD
SOLUTION THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
MORE DETAILS...BUT AT THIS POINT SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...LOOK FOR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  51  76 /   0   0  10  10
INL  45  75  55  78 /  10  10  10  20
BRD  52  73  53  78 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  43  70  48  79 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  43  67  47  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF





000
FXUS63 KDLH 302314
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
614 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT BROUGHT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL
DAY FOR THE END OF JUNE. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH 70
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA. LIGHT WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS...WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND...ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE 50S.

THE H85 TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SW MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER...IN THE 50S TO 60S...ALONG THE
SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
FURTHER EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...SUSPECT SOME
OF THIS MAY BE CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW CHANGES FROM
LATE THIS WEEK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EXPECTED THERE ARE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH A
PRETTY WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
IN A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO INTO MON. AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BEHIND
IT. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY...THOUGH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEAK CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO DIP DOWN AND
BRING A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF CANADA CAUSING A SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH. GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME BROAD DISAGREEMENTS...WITH
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DEPICTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THIS EARLIER PROGRESSION TURNS OUT TO BE A GOOD
SOLUTION THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
MORE DETAILS...BUT AT THIS POINT SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...LOOK FOR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  51  76 /   0   0  10  10
INL  45  75  55  78 /  10  10  10  20
BRD  52  73  53  78 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  43  70  48  79 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  43  67  47  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 302314
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
614 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT BROUGHT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL
DAY FOR THE END OF JUNE. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH 70
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA. LIGHT WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS...WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND...ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE 50S.

THE H85 TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SW MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER...IN THE 50S TO 60S...ALONG THE
SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
FURTHER EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...SUSPECT SOME
OF THIS MAY BE CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW CHANGES FROM
LATE THIS WEEK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EXPECTED THERE ARE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH A
PRETTY WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
IN A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO INTO MON. AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BEHIND
IT. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY...THOUGH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEAK CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO DIP DOWN AND
BRING A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF CANADA CAUSING A SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH. GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME BROAD DISAGREEMENTS...WITH
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DEPICTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THIS EARLIER PROGRESSION TURNS OUT TO BE A GOOD
SOLUTION THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
MORE DETAILS...BUT AT THIS POINT SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...LOOK FOR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  51  76 /   0   0  10  10
INL  45  75  55  78 /  10  10  10  20
BRD  52  73  53  78 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  43  70  48  79 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  43  67  47  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 302314
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
614 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT BROUGHT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL
DAY FOR THE END OF JUNE. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH 70
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA. LIGHT WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS...WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND...ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE 50S.

THE H85 TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SW MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER...IN THE 50S TO 60S...ALONG THE
SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
FURTHER EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...SUSPECT SOME
OF THIS MAY BE CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW CHANGES FROM
LATE THIS WEEK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EXPECTED THERE ARE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH A
PRETTY WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
IN A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO INTO MON. AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BEHIND
IT. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY...THOUGH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEAK CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO DIP DOWN AND
BRING A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF CANADA CAUSING A SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH. GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME BROAD DISAGREEMENTS...WITH
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DEPICTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THIS EARLIER PROGRESSION TURNS OUT TO BE A GOOD
SOLUTION THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
MORE DETAILS...BUT AT THIS POINT SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 614 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

WITH HIGH PRESSURE NEARBY...LOOK FOR VFR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  51  76 /   0   0  10  10
INL  45  75  55  78 /  10  10  10  20
BRD  52  73  53  78 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  43  70  48  79 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  43  67  47  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GSF





000
FXUS63 KDLH 302032
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
332 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT BROUGHT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL
DAY FOR THE END OF JUNE. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH 70
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA. LIGHT WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS...WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND...ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE 50S.

THE H85 TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SW MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER...IN THE 50S TO 60S...ALONG THE
SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
FURTHER EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...SUSPECT SOME
OF THIS MAY BE CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW CHANGES FROM
LATE THIS WEEK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EXPECTED THERE ARE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH A
PRETTY WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
IN A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO INTO MON. AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BEHIND
IT. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY...THOUGH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEAK CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO DIP DOWN AND
BRING A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF CANADA CAUSING A SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH. GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME BROAD DISAGREEMENTS...WITH
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DEPICTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THIS EARLIER PROGRESSION TURNS OUT TO BE A GOOD
SOLUTION THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
MORE DETAILS...BUT AT THIS POINT SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME EARLY AFTERNOON STRATUS AT DLH AND HYR. AT DLH
STRATUS SHOULD ONLY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AS VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND WEBCAM IMAGERY INDICATE THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING IS
VERY CLOSE...WITH SKIES ALREADY CLEARING UP AT DULUTH SKY HARBOR.
AT HYR LESS CONFIDENT IN THE EXACT TIME OF CLEARING...BUT SURFACE
HEATING SHOULD AID IMPROVEMENT BY MID- AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. AT BRD COULD SEE MID-
LEVEL /4 TO 5KFT/ CEILINGS EARLY TOMORROW...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING NEAR-CALM
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  51  76 /   0   0  10  10
INL  45  75  55  78 /  10  10  10  20
BRD  52  73  53  78 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  43  70  48  79 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  43  67  47  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 302032
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
332 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOL AIR ALOFT BROUGHT A MOSTLY SUNNY BUT COOL
DAY FOR THE END OF JUNE. TEMPERATURES STRUGGLED TO REACH 70
ACROSS THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH READINGS IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE BRAINERD LAKES
AREA. LIGHT WINDS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE COOL AND DRY AIR
MASS...WILL ALLOW FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS TO FALL INTO THE 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE IN THE BRAINERD LAKES
REGION WHERE MORE CLOUDS WILL BE FOUND...ALONG WITH HIGHER DEW
POINTS...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO HOLD IN THE 50S.

THE H85 TEMPS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE WEDNESDAY...ALONG WITH WINDS
GRADUALLY TURNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE DIVES ACROSS
THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SW MINNESOTA. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ON
THE COOL SIDE...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. HOWEVER...AN ONSHORE
FLOW WILL KEEP READINGS COOLER...IN THE 50S TO 60S...ALONG THE
SHORES OF LAKE SUPERIOR. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR
WEDNESDAY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...THE LATEST GFS/NAM SUGGEST THE
ELONGATED AREA OF VORTICITY THAT WILL TRIGGER SHOWERS MAY DRIFT
FURTHER EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. HOWEVER...SUSPECT SOME
OF THIS MAY BE CONTAMINATED BY CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK AND THE BULK OF
THE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF MN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND AS UPPER FLOW CHANGES FROM
LATE THIS WEEK TO SOUTHWESTERLY BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. WITH A
TRANSITIONAL PATTERN EXPECTED THERE ARE INHERENT UNCERTAINTIES WITH A
PRETTY WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL FAIRLY CONFIDENT
IN A STRONG COLD FRONT LATE SUN INTO INTO MON. AHEAD OF THIS COLD
FRONT TEMPS WILL BE FAIRLY MILD...WITH MORE SEASONABLE TEMPS BEHIND
IT. THERE ARE CHANCES FOR PRECIP NEARLY EVERY DAY...THOUGH GENERALLY
LOW CHANCES UNTIL THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL WEAKEN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WORK WEAK CAUSING THE JET STREAM TO DIP DOWN AND
BRING A SERIES OF WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES OUR WAY. LATE IN THE
WEEKEND A STRONGER UPPER LOW WILL TRAVEL DOWN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF CANADA CAUSING A SFC LOW AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT TO MOVE
THROUGH. GLOBAL GUIDANCE STILL HAS SOME BROAD DISAGREEMENTS...WITH
THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF DEPICTING A FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY AFTERNOON
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WHILE THE GFS HOLDS OFF UNTIL LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. IF THIS EARLIER PROGRESSION TURNS OUT TO BE A GOOD
SOLUTION THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
DUE TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. TOO FAR OUT TO PIN DOWN
MORE DETAILS...BUT AT THIS POINT SIGNS POINT TOWARDS A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1231 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT ALL SITES
EXCEPT FOR SOME EARLY AFTERNOON STRATUS AT DLH AND HYR. AT DLH
STRATUS SHOULD ONLY PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO AS VISIBLE
SATELLITE AND WEBCAM IMAGERY INDICATE THE EDGE OF THE CLEARING IS
VERY CLOSE...WITH SKIES ALREADY CLEARING UP AT DULUTH SKY HARBOR.
AT HYR LESS CONFIDENT IN THE EXACT TIME OF CLEARING...BUT SURFACE
HEATING SHOULD AID IMPROVEMENT BY MID- AFTERNOON. BEYOND THIS
SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW. AT BRD COULD SEE MID-
LEVEL /4 TO 5KFT/ CEILINGS EARLY TOMORROW...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR. WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING NEAR-CALM
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  47  68  51  76 /   0   0  10  10
INL  45  75  55  78 /  10  10  10  20
BRD  52  73  53  78 /  10  10  10  10
HYR  43  70  48  79 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  43  67  47  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ037.

LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GRANING
LONG TERM/AVIATION...JJM





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