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000
FXUS63 KDLH 300002
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
702 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED FOR THE 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NW ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
40 MPH. THERE COULD BE STRAY GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN NE MINNESOTA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAD BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE COOL AND RELATIVELY HUMID WESTERLY
FLOW. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE
NAM12/GEMREG/SREF/WRF. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND AND ARROWHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE OVERNIGHT CLEARING...LEANED ON
THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE SINCE THE OVERNIGHT WINDS SHOULD HELP
BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES.

THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY. THE DAY
SHOULD BE WARMER AND SUNNIER. THE NAM12/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD 20 TO 25 MPH WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BASED ON THE WINDS IN THE MIXING
LAYERS IN THE SOUNDINGS. THE NAM12/GFS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO POP SCATTERED
CUMULUS BY THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS...INCLUDING THE
NAM12/GEMREG/GFS/WRF/SREF MODELS. THIS IS MOSTLY FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 13 IN NW
WISCONSIN. THE NAM12/SREF ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...SO THERE COULD BE A
STRAY STRONGER CELL. THE MORE PROMINENT SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
END UP PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...POTENTIALLY UP TO 40 MPH. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. IN THIS FLOW...PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH THESE PIECES OF ENERGY...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE REGION AND HAVE POPS
ALIGNED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE IMPULSES. BETWEEN THESE SHORT
WAVES...PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS THE NIGHT TIME INVERSION DEVELOPS
BETWEEN 01Z TO 03Z. A BRIEF SHOWER IS POSSIBLE AT INL BETWEEN 00Z
AND 03Z DUE TO SHOWERS IN NORTHWESTERN ONTARIO. THIS IS SHOWN WELL
BY THE LAST FEW HRRR AND HRRRX RUNS...ALONG WITH CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS.

GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP AGAIN AT ALL TERMINALS BETWEEN
13Z TO 15Z. DAY TIME HEATING COUPLED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO
FAR NORTHERN MINNESOTA WILL RESULT IN A THREAT OF SHOWERS...AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AT HIB AND INL LATE IN THE PERIOD.
STILL UNCERTAIN ON THE EXACT LOCATION AND COVERAGE OF THIS
ACTIVITY...SO LEFT AS VCSH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  80  60  78 /   0  10  10   0
INL  56  78  53  76 /  40  30  10  20
BRD  60  83  59  80 /   0   0  10   0
HYR  59  80  56  77 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  61  80  59  78 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WL
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...WL




000
FXUS63 KDLH 292008
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
308 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NW ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
40 MPH. THERE COULD BE STRAY GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN NE MINNESOTA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAD BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE COOL AND RELATIVELY HUMID WESTERLY
FLOW. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE
NAM12/GEMREG/SREF/WRF. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND AND ARROWHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE OVERNIGHT CLEARING...LEANED ON
THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE SINCE THE OVERNIGHT WINDS SHOULD HELP
BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES.

THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY. THE DAY
SHOULD BE WARMER AND SUNNIER. THE NAM12/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD 20 TO 25 MPH WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BASED ON THE WINDS IN THE MIXING
LAYERS IN THE SOUNDINGS. THE NAM12/GFS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO POP SCATTERED
CUMULUS BY THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS...INCLUDING THE
NAM12/GEMREG/GFS/WRF/SREF MODELS. THIS IS MOSTLY FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 13 IN NW
WISCONSIN. THE NAM12/SREF ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...SO THERE COULD BE A
STRAY STRONGER CELL. THE MORE PROMINENT SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
END UP PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...POTENTIALLY UP TO 40 MPH. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. IN THIS FLOW...PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH THESE PIECES OF ENERGY...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE REGION AND HAVE POPS
ALIGNED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE IMPULSES. BETWEEN THESE SHORT
WAVES...PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH NW ONTARIO AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST AND WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY. HAVE VCSH MENTIONS AT INL AND HIB AS THE RAIN HAS BEEN
FALLING PERIODICALLY AT INL AND MAY CLIP HIB. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION BEING INL WHICH WILL BE IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM AND SEE THE GUSTY
WINDS UNTIL 06Z. VFR IS FORECAST FOR BRD/DLH/HYR. MVFR AT
HIB/INL UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VFR. LOOK FOR GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN AFTER 12Z AT ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  80  60  78 /   0  10  10   0
INL  56  78  53  76 /  40  30  10  20
BRD  60  83  59  80 /   0   0  10   0
HYR  59  80  56  77 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  61  80  59  78 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF





000
FXUS63 KDLH 292008
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
308 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER FAR NW ONTARIO WILL
CONTINUE TO CAUSE GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO
40 MPH. THERE COULD BE STRAY GUSTS TO 45 MPH IN NE MINNESOTA LATE
THIS AFTERNOON.

MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA HAD BKN/OVC CLOUD COVER DUE TO THE
INSTABILITY CAUSED BY THE COOL AND RELATIVELY HUMID WESTERLY
FLOW. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT AS HEIGHTS INCREASE AS THE LOW LIFTS INTO HUDSON BAY.
SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING LOW POTENTIAL FOR PCPN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...INCLUDING THE
NAM12/GEMREG/SREF/WRF. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
BORDERLAND AND ARROWHEAD THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH CHANCES GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THE OVERNIGHT CLEARING...LEANED ON
THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GUIDANCE SINCE THE OVERNIGHT WINDS SHOULD HELP
BOLSTER THE TEMPERATURES.

THE NORTHLAND WILL REMAIN IN NW FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY. THE DAY
SHOULD BE WARMER AND SUNNIER. THE NAM12/GFS SOUNDINGS INDICATE
THE LIKELIHOOD OF WIDESPREAD 20 TO 25 MPH WIND GUSTS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BASED ON THE WINDS IN THE MIXING
LAYERS IN THE SOUNDINGS. THE NAM12/GFS SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH TO POP SCATTERED
CUMULUS BY THE AFTERNOON. SEVERAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND WEAK STORMS...INCLUDING THE
NAM12/GEMREG/GFS/WRF/SREF MODELS. THIS IS MOSTLY FOR THE FAR
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA...AND NEAR AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 13 IN NW
WISCONSIN. THE NAM12/SREF ARE INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR UP TO
SEVERAL HUNDRED J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE...SO THERE COULD BE A
STRAY STRONGER CELL. THE MORE PROMINENT SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD
END UP PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...POTENTIALLY UP TO 40 MPH. HIGHS
SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A FAST NW FLOW ALOFT WILL AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY. IN THIS FLOW...PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL
ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
WITH THESE PIECES OF ENERGY...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER PARTS OF THE REGION AND HAVE POPS
ALIGNED TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE IMPULSES. BETWEEN THESE SHORT
WAVES...PERIODS OF DRY WEATHER WILL BE FOUND. TEMPERATURES DURING
THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH NW ONTARIO AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST AND WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY. HAVE VCSH MENTIONS AT INL AND HIB AS THE RAIN HAS BEEN
FALLING PERIODICALLY AT INL AND MAY CLIP HIB. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION BEING INL WHICH WILL BE IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM AND SEE THE GUSTY
WINDS UNTIL 06Z. VFR IS FORECAST FOR BRD/DLH/HYR. MVFR AT
HIB/INL UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VFR. LOOK FOR GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN AFTER 12Z AT ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  80  60  78 /   0  10  10   0
INL  56  78  53  76 /  40  30  10  20
BRD  60  83  59  80 /   0   0  10   0
HYR  59  80  56  77 /   0  10  10   0
ASX  61  80  59  78 /   0  20  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 291724
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A FOCUS ON WIND
SPEEDS...CLOUD COVER...AND PCPN CHANCES. ADJUSTED THE WIND SPEEDS
BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. LEANED ON THE
SREF WINDS BECAUSE OF IT BEING AMONG THE STRONGEST OF THE
MODELS...SINCE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE WINDS WAS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING TO INDICATE A MORE GRADUAL...RATHER
THAN RAPID...WEAKENING OF WIND SPEEDS INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH IS MORE EXTENSIVELY CLOUDY THAN WHAT MOST
OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. LEANED ON THE CLOUDIER RAP13 IN MY
BLEND. PCPN CHANCES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO INDICATE HIGHER CHANCES
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MINNESOTA BORDERLAND AND ARROWHEAD THROUGH
TONIGHT. LEANED ON THE SREF FOR PCPN CHANCES IN MY BLEND. MIGHT
NEED TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING HINTING AT SOME SHOWERS...INCLUDING THE SREF AND NCEP
WRF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 990 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA HAS
BEEN...AND WILL CONTINUE...TO CAUSE STRONG SURFACE WINDS TODAY.
WITH SUCH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH
AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN THE FROM THE WEST...EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN
BRAINERD. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KDLH RADAR SHOWS MEASURED 40
KTS AT 3000 FT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-50 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER- SO WE WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP THIS
MORNING AS THE WINDS MIX DOWN. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER IN
WISCONSIN THE GRADIENT IS A BIT LOOSER...SO WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG. THE NEARLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH ANOTHER
SECTION COMING THROUGH TODAY AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT..EXPECT THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MUCH CALMER ON THURSDAY WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CUT OFF LOW WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER HUDSON
BAY THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF UNSTABLE
CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH FALLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STEEP
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING DAYS WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW SWINGS SEVERAL FAST
MOVING SMALL WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION....RESULTING IN PERIODIC SMALL POPS AND INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH NW ONTARIO AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST AND WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY. HAVE VCSH MENTIONS AT INL AND HIB AS THE RAIN HAS BEEN
FALLING PERIODICALLY AT INL AND MAY CLIP HIB. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION BEING INL WHICH WILL BE IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM AND SEE THE GUSTY
WINDS UNTIL 06Z. VFR IS FORECAST FOR BRD/DLH/HYR. MVFR AT
HIB/INL UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VFR. LOOK FOR GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN AFTER 12Z AT ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  10
INL  73  56  77  54 /  50  50  10  30
BRD  80  60  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  76  58  80  57 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  79  60  81  60 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 291724
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A FOCUS ON WIND
SPEEDS...CLOUD COVER...AND PCPN CHANCES. ADJUSTED THE WIND SPEEDS
BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. LEANED ON THE
SREF WINDS BECAUSE OF IT BEING AMONG THE STRONGEST OF THE
MODELS...SINCE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE WINDS WAS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING TO INDICATE A MORE GRADUAL...RATHER
THAN RAPID...WEAKENING OF WIND SPEEDS INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH IS MORE EXTENSIVELY CLOUDY THAN WHAT MOST
OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. LEANED ON THE CLOUDIER RAP13 IN MY
BLEND. PCPN CHANCES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO INDICATE HIGHER CHANCES
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MINNESOTA BORDERLAND AND ARROWHEAD THROUGH
TONIGHT. LEANED ON THE SREF FOR PCPN CHANCES IN MY BLEND. MIGHT
NEED TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING HINTING AT SOME SHOWERS...INCLUDING THE SREF AND NCEP
WRF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 990 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA HAS
BEEN...AND WILL CONTINUE...TO CAUSE STRONG SURFACE WINDS TODAY.
WITH SUCH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH
AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN THE FROM THE WEST...EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN
BRAINERD. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KDLH RADAR SHOWS MEASURED 40
KTS AT 3000 FT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-50 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER- SO WE WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP THIS
MORNING AS THE WINDS MIX DOWN. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER IN
WISCONSIN THE GRADIENT IS A BIT LOOSER...SO WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG. THE NEARLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH ANOTHER
SECTION COMING THROUGH TODAY AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT..EXPECT THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MUCH CALMER ON THURSDAY WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CUT OFF LOW WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER HUDSON
BAY THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF UNSTABLE
CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH FALLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STEEP
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING DAYS WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW SWINGS SEVERAL FAST
MOVING SMALL WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION....RESULTING IN PERIODIC SMALL POPS AND INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

A VERTICALLY STACKED SYSTEM WAS MOVING THROUGH NW ONTARIO AT THE
BEGINNING OF THE FORECAST AND WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY. HAVE VCSH MENTIONS AT INL AND HIB AS THE RAIN HAS BEEN
FALLING PERIODICALLY AT INL AND MAY CLIP HIB. GUSTY SFC WINDS WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL SUNSET. THE EXCEPTION BEING INL WHICH WILL BE IN
CLOSEST PROXIMITY TO THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM AND SEE THE GUSTY
WINDS UNTIL 06Z. VFR IS FORECAST FOR BRD/DLH/HYR. MVFR AT
HIB/INL UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN VFR. LOOK FOR GUSTY
WINDS ONCE AGAIN AFTER 12Z AT ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  10
INL  73  56  77  54 /  50  50  10  30
BRD  80  60  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  76  58  80  57 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  79  60  81  60 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GSF





000
FXUS63 KDLH 291439 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A FOCUS ON WIND
SPEEDS...CLOUD COVER...AND PCPN CHANCES. ADJUSTED THE WIND SPEEDS
BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. LEANED ON THE
SREF WINDS BECAUSE OF IT BEING AMONG THE STRONGEST OF THE
MODELS...SINCE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE WINDS WAS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING TO INDICATE A MORE GRADUAL...RATHER
THAN RAPID...WEAKENING OF WIND SPEEDS INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH IS MORE EXTENSIVELY CLOUDY THAN WHAT MOST
OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. LEANED ON THE CLOUDIER RAP13 IN MY
BLEND. PCPN CHANCES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO INDICATE HIGHER CHANCES
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MINNESOTA BORDERLAND AND ARROWHEAD THROUGH
TONIGHT. LEANED ON THE SREF FOR PCPN CHANCES IN MY BLEND. MIGHT
NEED TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING HINTING AT SOME SHOWERS...INCLUDING THE SREF AND NCEP
WRF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 990 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA HAS
BEEN...AND WILL CONTINUE...TO CAUSE STRONG SURFACE WINDS TODAY.
WITH SUCH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH
AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN THE FROM THE WEST...EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN
BRAINERD. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KDLH RADAR SHOWS MEASURED 40
KTS AT 3000 FT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-50 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER- SO WE WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP THIS
MORNING AS THE WINDS MIX DOWN. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER IN
WISCONSIN THE GRADIENT IS A BIT LOOSER...SO WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG. THE NEARLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH ANOTHER
SECTION COMING THROUGH TODAY AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT..EXPECT THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MUCH CALMER ON THURSDAY WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CUT OFF LOW WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER HUDSON
BAY THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF UNSTABLE
CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH FALLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STEEP
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING DAYS WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW SWINGS SEVERAL FAST
MOVING SMALL WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION....RESULTING IN PERIODIC SMALL POPS AND INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR AT KINL AND KHIB THROUGH 18Z...TO
VFR ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  10
INL  73  56  77  54 /  50  50  10  30
BRD  80  60  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  76  58  80  57 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  79  60  81  60 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 291439 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

UPDATED THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH A FOCUS ON WIND
SPEEDS...CLOUD COVER...AND PCPN CHANCES. ADJUSTED THE WIND SPEEDS
BASED ON THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE. LEANED ON THE
SREF WINDS BECAUSE OF IT BEING AMONG THE STRONGEST OF THE
MODELS...SINCE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON WINDY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE PRIMARY CHANGES TO THE WINDS WAS FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING TO INDICATE A MORE GRADUAL...RATHER
THAN RAPID...WEAKENING OF WIND SPEEDS INTO THIS EVENING. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BASED ON THE LATEST
SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH IS MORE EXTENSIVELY CLOUDY THAN WHAT MOST
OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING. LEANED ON THE CLOUDIER RAP13 IN MY
BLEND. PCPN CHANCES WERE ALSO ADJUSTED TO INDICATE HIGHER CHANCES
OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE MINNESOTA BORDERLAND AND ARROWHEAD THROUGH
TONIGHT. LEANED ON THE SREF FOR PCPN CHANCES IN MY BLEND. MIGHT
NEED TO ADD THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS FOR PARTS OF NW WISCONSIN
FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING AS SOME MODELS ARE
INDICATING HINTING AT SOME SHOWERS...INCLUDING THE SREF AND NCEP
WRF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 990 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA HAS
BEEN...AND WILL CONTINUE...TO CAUSE STRONG SURFACE WINDS TODAY.
WITH SUCH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH
AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN THE FROM THE WEST...EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN
BRAINERD. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KDLH RADAR SHOWS MEASURED 40
KTS AT 3000 FT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-50 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER- SO WE WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP THIS
MORNING AS THE WINDS MIX DOWN. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER IN
WISCONSIN THE GRADIENT IS A BIT LOOSER...SO WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG. THE NEARLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH ANOTHER
SECTION COMING THROUGH TODAY AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT..EXPECT THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MUCH CALMER ON THURSDAY WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CUT OFF LOW WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER HUDSON
BAY THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF UNSTABLE
CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH FALLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STEEP
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING DAYS WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW SWINGS SEVERAL FAST
MOVING SMALL WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION....RESULTING IN PERIODIC SMALL POPS AND INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR AT KINL AND KHIB THROUGH 18Z...TO
VFR ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  10
INL  73  56  77  54 /  50  50  10  30
BRD  80  60  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  76  58  80  57 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  79  60  81  60 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 291144
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 990 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA HAS
BEEN...AND WILL CONTINUE...TO CAUSE STRONG SURFACE WINDS TODAY.
WITH SUCH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH
AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN THE FROM THE WEST...EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN
BRAINERD. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KDLH RADAR SHOWS MEASURED 40
KTS AT 3000 FT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-50 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER- SO WE WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP THIS
MORNING AS THE WINDS MIX DOWN. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER IN
WISCONSIN THE GRADIENT IS A BIT LOOSER...SO WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG. THE NEARLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH ANOTHER
SECTION COMING THROUGH TODAY AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT..EXPECT THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MUCH CALMER ON THURSDAY WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CUT OFF LOW WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER HUDSON
BAY THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF UNSTABLE
CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH FALLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STEEP
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING DAYS WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW SWINGS SEVERAL FAST
MOVING SMALL WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION....RESULTING IN PERIODIC SMALL POPS AND INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR AT KINL AND KHIB THROUGH 18Z...TO
VFR ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  10
INL  73  56  77  54 /  30  10  10  30
BRD  80  60  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  76  58  80  57 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  79  60  81  60 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 291144
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 990 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA HAS
BEEN...AND WILL CONTINUE...TO CAUSE STRONG SURFACE WINDS TODAY.
WITH SUCH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH
AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN THE FROM THE WEST...EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN
BRAINERD. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KDLH RADAR SHOWS MEASURED 40
KTS AT 3000 FT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-50 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER- SO WE WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP THIS
MORNING AS THE WINDS MIX DOWN. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER IN
WISCONSIN THE GRADIENT IS A BIT LOOSER...SO WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG. THE NEARLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH ANOTHER
SECTION COMING THROUGH TODAY AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT..EXPECT THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MUCH CALMER ON THURSDAY WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CUT OFF LOW WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER HUDSON
BAY THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF UNSTABLE
CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH FALLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STEEP
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING DAYS WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW SWINGS SEVERAL FAST
MOVING SMALL WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION....RESULTING IN PERIODIC SMALL POPS AND INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR AT KINL AND KHIB THROUGH 18Z...TO
VFR ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  10
INL  73  56  77  54 /  30  10  10  30
BRD  80  60  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  76  58  80  57 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  79  60  81  60 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 291144
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 990 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA HAS
BEEN...AND WILL CONTINUE...TO CAUSE STRONG SURFACE WINDS TODAY.
WITH SUCH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH
AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN THE FROM THE WEST...EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN
BRAINERD. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KDLH RADAR SHOWS MEASURED 40
KTS AT 3000 FT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-50 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER- SO WE WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP THIS
MORNING AS THE WINDS MIX DOWN. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER IN
WISCONSIN THE GRADIENT IS A BIT LOOSER...SO WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG. THE NEARLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH ANOTHER
SECTION COMING THROUGH TODAY AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT..EXPECT THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MUCH CALMER ON THURSDAY WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CUT OFF LOW WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER HUDSON
BAY THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF UNSTABLE
CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH FALLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STEEP
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING DAYS WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW SWINGS SEVERAL FAST
MOVING SMALL WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION....RESULTING IN PERIODIC SMALL POPS AND INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR AT KINL AND KHIB THROUGH 18Z...TO
VFR ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  10
INL  73  56  77  54 /  30  10  10  30
BRD  80  60  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  76  58  80  57 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  79  60  81  60 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 291144
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 990 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA HAS
BEEN...AND WILL CONTINUE...TO CAUSE STRONG SURFACE WINDS TODAY.
WITH SUCH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH
AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN THE FROM THE WEST...EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN
BRAINERD. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KDLH RADAR SHOWS MEASURED 40
KTS AT 3000 FT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-50 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER- SO WE WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP THIS
MORNING AS THE WINDS MIX DOWN. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER IN
WISCONSIN THE GRADIENT IS A BIT LOOSER...SO WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG. THE NEARLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH ANOTHER
SECTION COMING THROUGH TODAY AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT..EXPECT THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MUCH CALMER ON THURSDAY WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CUT OFF LOW WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER HUDSON
BAY THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF UNSTABLE
CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH FALLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STEEP
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING DAYS WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW SWINGS SEVERAL FAST
MOVING SMALL WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION....RESULTING IN PERIODIC SMALL POPS AND INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 609 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

CEILINGS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR AT KINL AND KHIB THROUGH 18Z...TO
VFR ELSEWHERE. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE GUSTING IN THE 30-40 KT
RANGE TODAY...DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  10
INL  73  56  77  54 /  30  10  10  30
BRD  80  60  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  76  58  80  57 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  79  60  81  60 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIZ001.

MN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-
     025-026-033>038.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 290921
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
421 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 990 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA HAS
BEEN...AND WILL CONTINUE...TO CAUSE STRONG SURFACE WINDS TODAY.
WITH SUCH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH
AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN THE FROM THE WEST...EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN
BRAINERD. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KDLH RADAR SHOWS MEASURED 40
KTS AT 3000 FT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-50 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER- SO WE WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP THIS
MORNING AS THE WINDS MIX DOWN. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER IN
WISCONSIN THE GRADIENT IS A BIT LOOSER...SO WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG. THE NEARLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH ANOTHER
SECTION COMING THROUGH TODAY AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT..EXPECT THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MUCH CALMER ON THURSDAY WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CUT OFF LOW WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER HUDSON
BAY THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF UNSTABLE
CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH FALLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STEEP
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING DAYS WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW SWINGS SEVERAL FAST
MOVING SMALL WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION....RESULTING IN PERIODIC SMALL POPS AND INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY EARLY
MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH SUNSET. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE TODAY. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 50
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WRAPPING ACROSS NORTHERN MN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BRING SCT SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO KINL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
AS FAR SOUTH AS KHIB.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  10
INL  73  56  77  54 /  30  10  10  30
BRD  80  60  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  76  58  80  57 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  79  60  81  60 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WIZ001.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 290921
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
421 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

AN UNUSUALLY STRONG 990 MB LOW OVER CENTRAL MANITOBA HAS
BEEN...AND WILL CONTINUE...TO CAUSE STRONG SURFACE WINDS TODAY.
WITH SUCH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW TO THE NORTH
AND THE HIGH BUILDING IN THE FROM THE WEST...EXPECT WINDY
CONDITIONS. WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN GUSTING OVER 40 MPH IN
BRAINERD. THE VAD WIND PROFILE FROM KDLH RADAR SHOWS MEASURED 40
KTS AT 3000 FT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 40-50 KT WINDS
THROUGH THE MIXING LAYER- SO WE WILL SEE WINDS RAMP UP THIS
MORNING AS THE WINDS MIX DOWN. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER IN
WISCONSIN THE GRADIENT IS A BIT LOOSER...SO WINDS WILL NOT BE
QUITE AS STRONG. THE NEARLY STACKED UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
ROTATE SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WITH ANOTHER
SECTION COMING THROUGH TODAY AS SEEN IN THE WATER VAPOR LOOP STILL
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA WHERE SHOWERS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN TONIGHT..EXPECT THE
WINDS TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT. MUCH CALMER ON THURSDAY WITH THE SFC
HIGH BUILDING IN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 402 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THE CUT OFF LOW WILL MIGRATE TO THE NORTHEAST AND SETTLE OVER HUDSON
BAY THURSDAY NIGHT...BECOMING NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS. THIS WILL PLACE THE FORECAST AREA IN A REGION OF UNSTABLE
CYCLONIC/NORTHWEST FLOW WITH FALLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE COOLING AIR ALOFT WILL PROMOTE STEEP
AFTERNOON LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING DAYS WHICH WILL BRING GUSTY NW
WINDS AND LOW RH VALUES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THE LOW SWINGS SEVERAL FAST
MOVING SMALL WAVES ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION....RESULTING IN PERIODIC SMALL POPS AND INCREASING CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED. HOWEVER...THE COVERAGE OF ANY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE MINIMAL AND THE TIMING OF THESE
WAVES ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY EARLY
MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH SUNSET. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE TODAY. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 50
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WRAPPING ACROSS NORTHERN MN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BRING SCT SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO KINL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
AS FAR SOUTH AS KHIB.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  80  60 /  10   0  10  10
INL  73  56  77  54 /  30  10  10  30
BRD  80  60  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  76  58  80  57 /   0   0  10  10
ASX  79  60  81  60 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR WIZ001.

MN...WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING
     FOR MNZ010>012-018>021-025-026-033>038.

LS...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR LSZ121-140>148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...GRANING
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 290620
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
120 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AS OF 19Z...THE PCPN HAD COME TO AN END OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAD ROTATED UP INTO CANADA FROM NORTHERN MN.
LARGE CU FIELD COVERED THE AREA AND KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK. THIS ALSO
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW INCREASE IN
MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS IN NW MN. ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES DUE TO DRYING
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND H7
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 10 TO 12C RANGE FOR A CAP. WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DO FIRE UP WITH THE FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAS BEEN
MINIMIZED DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF DECENT
DESTABILIZATION.

EXPECT SOME STORMS TO EVENTUALLY FORM EAST OF THE TWIN PORTS THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD IN
NATURE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW REACHES NW ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SFC LOW. MEANWHILE...A
FAST MOVING IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CLIP THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP OVER
KOOCHICHING COUNTY BY 11Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM MEANDERS FURTHER INTO NW ONTARIO. GUSTY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN
POPS ALONG THE BORDER AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER COULD SET IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MINOR OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER OPPORTUNITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BREEZY WNW FLOW. BOTH THE NAM12 AND
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS AND SREF ARE INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY MUCAPE...SO LEFT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHLAND WILL BE IN BREEZY NW FLOW. A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE GSF IS HONING IN ON LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE TWO FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ONE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. THEREFORE...THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE
PCPN CHANCES SPREAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY...COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHS MIGHT BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY EARLY
MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH SUNSET. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE TODAY. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 50
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WRAPPING ACROSS NORTHERN MN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BRING SCT SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO KINL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
AS FAR SOUTH AS KHIB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  80  59 /  10   0  10  10
INL  73  56  77  54 /  30  10  10  30
BRD  80  60  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  76  58  80  57 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  79  60  81  60 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ140-141-146-
     147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     142>145-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 290620
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
120 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AS OF 19Z...THE PCPN HAD COME TO AN END OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAD ROTATED UP INTO CANADA FROM NORTHERN MN.
LARGE CU FIELD COVERED THE AREA AND KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK. THIS ALSO
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW INCREASE IN
MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS IN NW MN. ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES DUE TO DRYING
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND H7
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 10 TO 12C RANGE FOR A CAP. WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DO FIRE UP WITH THE FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAS BEEN
MINIMIZED DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF DECENT
DESTABILIZATION.

EXPECT SOME STORMS TO EVENTUALLY FORM EAST OF THE TWIN PORTS THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD IN
NATURE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW REACHES NW ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SFC LOW. MEANWHILE...A
FAST MOVING IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CLIP THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP OVER
KOOCHICHING COUNTY BY 11Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM MEANDERS FURTHER INTO NW ONTARIO. GUSTY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN
POPS ALONG THE BORDER AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER COULD SET IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MINOR OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER OPPORTUNITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BREEZY WNW FLOW. BOTH THE NAM12 AND
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS AND SREF ARE INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY MUCAPE...SO LEFT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHLAND WILL BE IN BREEZY NW FLOW. A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE GSF IS HONING IN ON LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE TWO FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ONE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. THEREFORE...THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE
PCPN CHANCES SPREAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY...COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHS MIGHT BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY EARLY
MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH SUNSET. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE TODAY. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 50
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WRAPPING ACROSS NORTHERN MN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BRING SCT SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO KINL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
AS FAR SOUTH AS KHIB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  80  59 /  10   0  10  10
INL  73  56  77  54 /  30  10  10  30
BRD  80  60  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  76  58  80  57 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  79  60  81  60 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ140-141-146-
     147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     142>145-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING





000
FXUS63 KDLH 290620
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
120 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AS OF 19Z...THE PCPN HAD COME TO AN END OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAD ROTATED UP INTO CANADA FROM NORTHERN MN.
LARGE CU FIELD COVERED THE AREA AND KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK. THIS ALSO
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW INCREASE IN
MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS IN NW MN. ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES DUE TO DRYING
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND H7
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 10 TO 12C RANGE FOR A CAP. WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DO FIRE UP WITH THE FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAS BEEN
MINIMIZED DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF DECENT
DESTABILIZATION.

EXPECT SOME STORMS TO EVENTUALLY FORM EAST OF THE TWIN PORTS THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD IN
NATURE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW REACHES NW ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SFC LOW. MEANWHILE...A
FAST MOVING IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CLIP THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP OVER
KOOCHICHING COUNTY BY 11Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM MEANDERS FURTHER INTO NW ONTARIO. GUSTY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN
POPS ALONG THE BORDER AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER COULD SET IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MINOR OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER OPPORTUNITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BREEZY WNW FLOW. BOTH THE NAM12 AND
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS AND SREF ARE INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY MUCAPE...SO LEFT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHLAND WILL BE IN BREEZY NW FLOW. A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE GSF IS HONING IN ON LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE TWO FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ONE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. THEREFORE...THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE
PCPN CHANCES SPREAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY...COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHS MIGHT BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 116 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. WINDY CONDITIONS DEVELOPING BY EARLY
MORNING...PERSISTING THROUGH SUNSET. EXPECT WIDESPREAD FREQUENT
GUSTS IN THE 30-40 KNOT RANGE TODAY. A FEW HIGHER GUSTS AROUND 50
KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AROUND ANY SHOWERS THIS
AFTERNOON. MOISTURE WRAPPING ACROSS NORTHERN MN IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA WILL
BRING SCT SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO KINL AND POSSIBLY EVEN
AS FAR SOUTH AS KHIB.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  77  59  80  59 /  10   0  10  10
INL  73  56  77  54 /  30  10  10  30
BRD  80  60  83  59 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  76  58  80  57 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  79  60  81  60 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR LSZ140-141-146-
     147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121-
     142>145-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GRANING




000
FXUS63 KDLH 282357
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
657 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AS OF 19Z...THE PCPN HAD COME TO AN END OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAD ROTATED UP INTO CANADA FROM NORTHERN MN.
LARGE CU FIELD COVERED THE AREA AND KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK. THIS ALSO
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW INCREASE IN
MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS IN NW MN. ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES DUE TO DRYING
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND H7
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 10 TO 12C RANGE FOR A CAP. WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DO FIRE UP WITH THE FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAS BEEN
MINIMIZED DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF DECENT
DESTABILIZATION.

EXPECT SOME STORMS TO EVENTUALLY FORM EAST OF THE TWIN PORTS THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD IN
NATURE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW REACHES NW ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SFC LOW. MEANWHILE...A
FAST MOVING IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CLIP THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP OVER
KOOCHICHING COUNTY BY 11Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM MEANDERS FURTHER INTO NW ONTARIO. GUSTY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN
POPS ALONG THE BORDER AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER COULD SET IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MINOR OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER OPPORTUNITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BREEZY WNW FLOW. BOTH THE NAM12 AND
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS AND SREF ARE INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY MUCAPE...SO LEFT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHLAND WILL BE IN BREEZY NW FLOW. A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE GSF IS HONING IN ON LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE TWO FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ONE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. THEREFORE...THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE
PCPN CHANCES SPREAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY...COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHS MIGHT BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT
AND ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...WITH MOISTURE AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN MN ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH DURING THE DAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  77  59  80 /  10   0   0  10
INL  59  73  56  77 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  63  80  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  61  76  58  80 /  40   0   0  10
ASX  64  79  60  81 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR LSZ140-141-146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     142>145-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 282357
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
657 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AS OF 19Z...THE PCPN HAD COME TO AN END OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAD ROTATED UP INTO CANADA FROM NORTHERN MN.
LARGE CU FIELD COVERED THE AREA AND KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK. THIS ALSO
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW INCREASE IN
MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS IN NW MN. ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES DUE TO DRYING
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND H7
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 10 TO 12C RANGE FOR A CAP. WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DO FIRE UP WITH THE FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAS BEEN
MINIMIZED DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF DECENT
DESTABILIZATION.

EXPECT SOME STORMS TO EVENTUALLY FORM EAST OF THE TWIN PORTS THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD IN
NATURE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW REACHES NW ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SFC LOW. MEANWHILE...A
FAST MOVING IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CLIP THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP OVER
KOOCHICHING COUNTY BY 11Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM MEANDERS FURTHER INTO NW ONTARIO. GUSTY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN
POPS ALONG THE BORDER AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER COULD SET IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MINOR OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER OPPORTUNITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BREEZY WNW FLOW. BOTH THE NAM12 AND
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS AND SREF ARE INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY MUCAPE...SO LEFT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHLAND WILL BE IN BREEZY NW FLOW. A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE GSF IS HONING IN ON LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE TWO FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ONE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. THEREFORE...THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE
PCPN CHANCES SPREAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY...COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHS MIGHT BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT
AND ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...WITH MOISTURE AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN MN ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH DURING THE DAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  77  59  80 /  10   0   0  10
INL  59  73  56  77 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  63  80  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  61  76  58  80 /  40   0   0  10
ASX  64  79  60  81 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR LSZ140-141-146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     142>145-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 282357
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
657 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AS OF 19Z...THE PCPN HAD COME TO AN END OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAD ROTATED UP INTO CANADA FROM NORTHERN MN.
LARGE CU FIELD COVERED THE AREA AND KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK. THIS ALSO
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW INCREASE IN
MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS IN NW MN. ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES DUE TO DRYING
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND H7
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 10 TO 12C RANGE FOR A CAP. WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DO FIRE UP WITH THE FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAS BEEN
MINIMIZED DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF DECENT
DESTABILIZATION.

EXPECT SOME STORMS TO EVENTUALLY FORM EAST OF THE TWIN PORTS THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD IN
NATURE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW REACHES NW ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SFC LOW. MEANWHILE...A
FAST MOVING IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CLIP THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP OVER
KOOCHICHING COUNTY BY 11Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM MEANDERS FURTHER INTO NW ONTARIO. GUSTY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN
POPS ALONG THE BORDER AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER COULD SET IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MINOR OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER OPPORTUNITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BREEZY WNW FLOW. BOTH THE NAM12 AND
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS AND SREF ARE INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY MUCAPE...SO LEFT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHLAND WILL BE IN BREEZY NW FLOW. A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE GSF IS HONING IN ON LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE TWO FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ONE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. THEREFORE...THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE
PCPN CHANCES SPREAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY...COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHS MIGHT BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT
AND ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...WITH MOISTURE AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN MN ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH DURING THE DAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  77  59  80 /  10   0   0  10
INL  59  73  56  77 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  63  80  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  61  76  58  80 /  40   0   0  10
ASX  64  79  60  81 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR LSZ140-141-146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     142>145-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 282357
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
657 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AS OF 19Z...THE PCPN HAD COME TO AN END OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAD ROTATED UP INTO CANADA FROM NORTHERN MN.
LARGE CU FIELD COVERED THE AREA AND KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK. THIS ALSO
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW INCREASE IN
MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS IN NW MN. ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES DUE TO DRYING
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND H7
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 10 TO 12C RANGE FOR A CAP. WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DO FIRE UP WITH THE FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAS BEEN
MINIMIZED DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF DECENT
DESTABILIZATION.

EXPECT SOME STORMS TO EVENTUALLY FORM EAST OF THE TWIN PORTS THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD IN
NATURE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW REACHES NW ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SFC LOW. MEANWHILE...A
FAST MOVING IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CLIP THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP OVER
KOOCHICHING COUNTY BY 11Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM MEANDERS FURTHER INTO NW ONTARIO. GUSTY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN
POPS ALONG THE BORDER AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER COULD SET IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MINOR OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER OPPORTUNITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BREEZY WNW FLOW. BOTH THE NAM12 AND
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS AND SREF ARE INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY MUCAPE...SO LEFT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHLAND WILL BE IN BREEZY NW FLOW. A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE GSF IS HONING IN ON LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE TWO FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ONE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. THEREFORE...THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE
PCPN CHANCES SPREAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY...COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHS MIGHT BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 654 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA
OVERNIGHT. GUSTY SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE
SOUTHWEST DURING THE EVENING...AND THEN TO THE WEST LATER TONIGHT
AND ON WEDNESDAY. A FEW SHOWERS OR EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...MAINLY FOR EASTERN LOCATIONS. THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH...WITH MOISTURE AND LOWER CLOUDS WILL THEN MOVE
ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN MN ON WEDNESDAY. SOME MVFR CIGS WILL BE
POSSIBLE NORTH DURING THE DAY...ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  77  59  80 /  10   0   0  10
INL  59  73  56  77 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  63  80  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  61  76  58  80 /  40   0   0  10
ASX  64  79  60  81 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR LSZ140-141-146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     142>145-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 282025
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AS OF 19Z...THE PCPN HAD COME TO AN END OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAD ROTATED UP INTO CANADA FROM NORTHERN MN.
LARGE CU FIELD COVERED THE AREA AND KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK. THIS ALSO
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW INCREASE IN
MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS IN NW MN. ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES DUE TO DRYING
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND H7
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 10 TO 12C RANGE FOR A CAP. WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DO FIRE UP WITH THE FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAS BEEN
MINIMIZED DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF DECENT
DESTABILIZATION.

EXPECT SOME STORMS TO EVENTUALLY FORM EAST OF THE TWIN PORTS THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD IN
NATURE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW REACHES NW ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SFC LOW. MEANWHILE...A
FAST MOVING IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CLIP THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP OVER
KOOCHICHING COUNTY BY 11Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM MEANDERS FURTHER INTO NW ONTARIO. GUSTY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN
POPS ALONG THE BORDER AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER COULD SET IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MINOR OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER OPPORTUNITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BREEZY WNW FLOW. BOTH THE NAM12 AND
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS AND SREF ARE INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY MUCAPE...SO LEFT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHLAND WILL BE IN BREEZY NW FLOW. A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE GSF IS HONING IN ON LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE TWO FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ONE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. THEREFORE...THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE
PCPN CHANCES SPREAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY...COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHS MIGHT BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND POCKETS OF LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...BKN/OVC HIGH
CLOUD COVER COVERED THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL
POOL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
THUNDER. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE REGION SHOULD
QUICKLY CLEAR...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST...IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SW WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS MAY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS SITUATION MIGHT SET UP WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BECAUSE THERE WILL BE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 1000
TO 2000 FOOT LAYER OVERNIGHT. TAKE OFFS AND LANDINGS MIGHT BE
BUMPY AS PLANES MOVE THROUGH THAT LAYER BETWEEN THE LIGHTER WINDS
NEAR THE SURFACE AND THE WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS ALOFT.

THE WIND SHEAR ISSUES WILL LIKELY ABATE AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...VERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. WIND GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 40 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE KINL AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD -RA AND MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO A DEEP AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  77  59  80 /  10   0   0  10
INL  59  73  56  77 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  63  80  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  61  76  58  80 /  40   0   0  10
ASX  64  79  60  81 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR LSZ140-141-146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     142>145-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KDLH 282025
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
325 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

AS OF 19Z...THE PCPN HAD COME TO AN END OVER THE FORECAST AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE HAD ROTATED UP INTO CANADA FROM NORTHERN MN.
LARGE CU FIELD COVERED THE AREA AND KEPT TEMPS IN CHECK. THIS ALSO
HAS LIMITED INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE HAS BEEN A SLOW INCREASE IN
MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WAS IN NW MN. ADDITIONAL STORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LIMITED UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES DUE TO DRYING
SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...LACK OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND H7
TEMPS RISING INTO THE 10 TO 12C RANGE FOR A CAP. WITH ANY STORMS
THAT DO FIRE UP WITH THE FRONT...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAS BEEN
MINIMIZED DUE TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF DECENT
DESTABILIZATION.

EXPECT SOME STORMS TO EVENTUALLY FORM EAST OF THE TWIN PORTS THIS
EVENING AS THE FRONT PUSHES EASTWARD. THEY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLD IN
NATURE. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH EAST OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT
BRINGING AN END TO THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TONIGHT AS A CUT OFF UPPER LOW REACHES NW ONTARIO BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA AS
THE UPPER LOW IS VERTICALLY STACKED WITH THE SFC LOW. MEANWHILE...A
FAST MOVING IMPULSE EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL CLIP THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER LATE TONIGHT. HAVE MAINTAINED A LOW POP OVER
KOOCHICHING COUNTY BY 11Z.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS AS THE VERTICALLY
STACKED SYSTEM MEANDERS FURTHER INTO NW ONTARIO. GUSTY WINDS WILL
PREVAIL...BUT NOT EXPECTING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA ATTM. ADDITIONAL
SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL MOVE ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH THE BEST FORCING NORTH OF THE BORDER. WILL MAINTAIN
POPS ALONG THE BORDER AS A RESULT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS WEEK. SLIGHTLY COOLER WEATHER COULD SET IN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A MINOR OPPORTUNITY FOR PCPN WITH A COLD
FRONT PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT. A BETTER OPPORTUNITY IS EXPECTED OVER
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEKEND WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT.

THURSDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE BREEZY WNW FLOW. BOTH THE NAM12 AND
GFS BUFR SOUNDINGS ARE SUGGESTING WIND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 25 MPH.
SCATTERED CUMULUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN AND SE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE GFS AND SREF ARE INDICATING LITTLE IF ANY MUCAPE...SO LEFT
THUNDER OUT OF THE FORECAST.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHLAND WILL BE IN BREEZY NW FLOW. A PASSING SHORTWAVE COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED/BROKEN CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
NORTHERN FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
UPPER 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THE GSF IS HONING IN ON LATE
SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE TWO FRONTAL
PASSAGES...ONE LATE SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LATE SUNDAY. THEREFORE...THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE
PCPN CHANCES SPREAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY...COOLER WEATHER IS LIKELY IN THE WAKE OF THE WEEKEND COLD
FRONT PASSAGE. HIGHS MIGHT BE IN THE MIDDLE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND POCKETS OF LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...BKN/OVC HIGH
CLOUD COVER COVERED THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL
POOL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
THUNDER. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE REGION SHOULD
QUICKLY CLEAR...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST...IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SW WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS MAY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS SITUATION MIGHT SET UP WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BECAUSE THERE WILL BE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 1000
TO 2000 FOOT LAYER OVERNIGHT. TAKE OFFS AND LANDINGS MIGHT BE
BUMPY AS PLANES MOVE THROUGH THAT LAYER BETWEEN THE LIGHTER WINDS
NEAR THE SURFACE AND THE WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS ALOFT.

THE WIND SHEAR ISSUES WILL LIKELY ABATE AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...VERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. WIND GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 40 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE KINL AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD -RA AND MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO A DEEP AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  77  59  80 /  10   0   0  10
INL  59  73  56  77 /  10  20  10  10
BRD  63  80  60  83 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  61  76  58  80 /  40   0   0  10
ASX  64  79  60  81 /  40   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM CDT THURSDAY
     FOR LSZ140-141-146-147.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR LSZ121-
     142>145-148.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





000
FXUS63 KDLH 281836
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
136 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY RADAR. REST OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN WITH SOME NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WI FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 1 PM. LATEST HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE ALMOST NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH THE FRONT NOW INTO NW MN...WILL MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. REST OF THE FORECAST IN THE BALLPARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD STORM IN NW WI WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS JUST ENTERING THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE NORTH AT 1430Z. THE PROGNOSIS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY PER THE
LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ADJUSTED FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING
VERY WINDY TOMORROW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING
PROGRESSING IN A SIMILAR FASHION TOWARDS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS A WARM FRONT WHICH
BY 18Z WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT AN MCS WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE QUESTION OF JUST HOW WELL
THESE STORMS HOLD UP AS THEY REACH THE NORTHLAND. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND MESOANLYSIS INDICATE APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHOULD STORMS SUSTAIN...WHICH PER LATEST
RADAR/LIGHTNING THEY DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING YET...WIDESPREAD
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL
BE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMO FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THINK THE QPF OUTPUT FROM MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE SWIFT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLOODING RISK...BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RUN OUT OF STEAM
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL
HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS...BUT THINK AS SOON AS IT CROSS THE
STATE LINE WE WILL SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS STORMS
WEAKEN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH...THOUGH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
DUE TO THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STORMS
THAT DO BREAK THE CAP WILL RAPIDLY GROW DUE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...MLCAPE VALUES 2000-400 J/KG PER A BLEND OF SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE. WIND PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY 20-30KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND WEAK WINDS
AROUND 3-5KM PRODUCING A LESS-THAN-STELLAR HODOGRAPH. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP THINK THEY COULD QUICKLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...BUT NOT FOR LONG GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-
EVALUATED DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS PROGRESS THIS MORNING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF IT...WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOWS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
ONTARIO EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO EFFECT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 750MB WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH BEING MIXED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80...AND DOWN TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
INTO THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PACIFIC... ALMOST ZONAL FLOW
EARLY...THEN AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ALL THE WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
OVER ONTARIO. IT IS THIS UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH EMBEDDED S/WVS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MN ARROWHEAD WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND POCKETS OF LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...BKN/OVC HIGH
CLOUD COVER COVERED THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL
POOL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
THUNDER. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE REGION SHOULD
QUICKLY CLEAR...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST...IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SW WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS MAY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS SITUATION MIGHT SET UP WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BECAUSE THERE WILL BE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 1000
TO 2000 FOOT LAYER OVERNIGHT. TAKE OFFS AND LANDINGS MIGHT BE
BUMPY AS PLANES MOVE THROUGH THAT LAYER BETWEEN THE LIGHTER WINDS
NEAR THE SURFACE AND THE WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS ALOFT.

THE WIND SHEAR ISSUES WILL LIKELY ABATE AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...VERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. WIND GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 40 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE KINL AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD -RA AND MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO A DEEP AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  78  59  82 /  40   0   0   0
INL  57  72  54  80 /  10  30  10  10
BRD  62  80  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  61  79  56  81 /  40   0   0   0
ASX  63  81  59  84 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





000
FXUS63 KDLH 281836
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
136 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 136 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAIN FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AS NOTED
BY RADAR. REST OF THE FORECAST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN WITH SOME NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WI FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 1 PM. LATEST HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE ALMOST NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH THE FRONT NOW INTO NW MN...WILL MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. REST OF THE FORECAST IN THE BALLPARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD STORM IN NW WI WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS JUST ENTERING THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE NORTH AT 1430Z. THE PROGNOSIS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY PER THE
LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ADJUSTED FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING
VERY WINDY TOMORROW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING
PROGRESSING IN A SIMILAR FASHION TOWARDS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS A WARM FRONT WHICH
BY 18Z WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT AN MCS WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE QUESTION OF JUST HOW WELL
THESE STORMS HOLD UP AS THEY REACH THE NORTHLAND. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND MESOANLYSIS INDICATE APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHOULD STORMS SUSTAIN...WHICH PER LATEST
RADAR/LIGHTNING THEY DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING YET...WIDESPREAD
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL
BE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMO FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THINK THE QPF OUTPUT FROM MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE SWIFT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLOODING RISK...BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RUN OUT OF STEAM
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL
HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS...BUT THINK AS SOON AS IT CROSS THE
STATE LINE WE WILL SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS STORMS
WEAKEN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH...THOUGH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
DUE TO THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STORMS
THAT DO BREAK THE CAP WILL RAPIDLY GROW DUE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...MLCAPE VALUES 2000-400 J/KG PER A BLEND OF SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE. WIND PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY 20-30KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND WEAK WINDS
AROUND 3-5KM PRODUCING A LESS-THAN-STELLAR HODOGRAPH. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP THINK THEY COULD QUICKLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...BUT NOT FOR LONG GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-
EVALUATED DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS PROGRESS THIS MORNING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF IT...WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOWS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
ONTARIO EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO EFFECT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 750MB WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH BEING MIXED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80...AND DOWN TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
INTO THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PACIFIC... ALMOST ZONAL FLOW
EARLY...THEN AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ALL THE WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
OVER ONTARIO. IT IS THIS UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH EMBEDDED S/WVS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MN ARROWHEAD WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND POCKETS OF LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...BKN/OVC HIGH
CLOUD COVER COVERED THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL
POOL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
THUNDER. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE REGION SHOULD
QUICKLY CLEAR...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST...IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SW WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS MAY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS SITUATION MIGHT SET UP WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BECAUSE THERE WILL BE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 1000
TO 2000 FOOT LAYER OVERNIGHT. TAKE OFFS AND LANDINGS MIGHT BE
BUMPY AS PLANES MOVE THROUGH THAT LAYER BETWEEN THE LIGHTER WINDS
NEAR THE SURFACE AND THE WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS ALOFT.

THE WIND SHEAR ISSUES WILL LIKELY ABATE AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...VERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. WIND GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 40 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE KINL AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD -RA AND MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO A DEEP AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  60  78  59  82 /  40   0   0   0
INL  57  72  54  80 /  10  30  10  10
BRD  62  80  59  83 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  61  79  56  81 /  40   0   0   0
ASX  63  81  59  84 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281752 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN WITH SOME NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WI FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 1 PM. LATEST HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE ALMOST NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH THE FRONT NOW INTO NW MN...WILL MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. REST OF THE FORECAST IN THE BALLPARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD STORM IN NW WI WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS JUST ENTERING THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE NORTH AT 1430Z. THE PROGNOSIS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY PER THE
LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ADJUSTED FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING
VERY WINDY TOMORROW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING
PROGRESSING IN A SIMILAR FASHION TOWARDS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS A WARM FRONT WHICH
BY 18Z WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT AN MCS WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE QUESTION OF JUST HOW WELL
THESE STORMS HOLD UP AS THEY REACH THE NORTHLAND. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND MESOANLYSIS INDICATE APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHOULD STORMS SUSTAIN...WHICH PER LATEST
RADAR/LIGHTNING THEY DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING YET...WIDESPREAD
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL
BE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMO FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THINK THE QPF OUTPUT FROM MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE SWIFT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLOODING RISK...BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RUN OUT OF STEAM
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL
HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS...BUT THINK AS SOON AS IT CROSS THE
STATE LINE WE WILL SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS STORMS
WEAKEN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH...THOUGH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
DUE TO THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STORMS
THAT DO BREAK THE CAP WILL RAPIDLY GROW DUE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...MLCAPE VALUES 2000-400 J/KG PER A BLEND OF SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE. WIND PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY 20-30KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND WEAK WINDS
AROUND 3-5KM PRODUCING A LESS-THAN-STELLAR HODOGRAPH. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP THINK THEY COULD QUICKLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...BUT NOT FOR LONG GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-
EVALUATED DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS PROGRESS THIS MORNING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF IT...WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOWS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
ONTARIO EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO EFFECT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 750MB WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH BEING MIXED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80...AND DOWN TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
INTO THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PACIFIC... ALMOST ZONAL FLOW
EARLY...THEN AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ALL THE WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
OVER ONTARIO. IT IS THIS UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH EMBEDDED S/WVS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MN ARROWHEAD WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND POCKETS OF LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...BKN/OVC HIGH
CLOUD COVER COVERED THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL
POOL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
THUNDER. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISBILITY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE REGION SHOULD
QUICKLY CLEAR...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST...IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SW WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS MAY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS SITUATION MIGHT SET UP WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BECAUSE THERE WILL BE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 1000
TO 2000 FOOT LAYER OVERNIGHT. TAKE OFFS AND LANDINGS MIGHT BE
BUMPY AS PLANES MOVE THROUGH THAT LAYER BETWEEN THE LIGHTER WINDS
NEAR THE SURFACE AND THE WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS ALOFT.

THE WIND SHEAR ISSUES WILL LIKELY ABATE AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...VERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. WIND GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 40 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE KINL AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD -RA AND MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO A DEEP AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  60  78  59 /  30  40   0   0
INL  84  57  72  54 /  30  10  30  10
BRD  83  62  80  59 / 100   0   0   0
HYR  82  61  79  56 /  70  40   0   0
ASX  84  63  81  59 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





000
FXUS63 KDLH 281752 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN WITH SOME NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WI FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 1 PM. LATEST HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE ALMOST NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH THE FRONT NOW INTO NW MN...WILL MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. REST OF THE FORECAST IN THE BALLPARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD STORM IN NW WI WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS JUST ENTERING THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE NORTH AT 1430Z. THE PROGNOSIS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY PER THE
LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ADJUSTED FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING
VERY WINDY TOMORROW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING
PROGRESSING IN A SIMILAR FASHION TOWARDS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS A WARM FRONT WHICH
BY 18Z WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT AN MCS WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE QUESTION OF JUST HOW WELL
THESE STORMS HOLD UP AS THEY REACH THE NORTHLAND. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND MESOANLYSIS INDICATE APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHOULD STORMS SUSTAIN...WHICH PER LATEST
RADAR/LIGHTNING THEY DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING YET...WIDESPREAD
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL
BE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMO FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THINK THE QPF OUTPUT FROM MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE SWIFT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLOODING RISK...BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RUN OUT OF STEAM
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL
HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS...BUT THINK AS SOON AS IT CROSS THE
STATE LINE WE WILL SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS STORMS
WEAKEN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH...THOUGH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
DUE TO THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STORMS
THAT DO BREAK THE CAP WILL RAPIDLY GROW DUE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...MLCAPE VALUES 2000-400 J/KG PER A BLEND OF SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE. WIND PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY 20-30KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND WEAK WINDS
AROUND 3-5KM PRODUCING A LESS-THAN-STELLAR HODOGRAPH. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP THINK THEY COULD QUICKLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...BUT NOT FOR LONG GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-
EVALUATED DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS PROGRESS THIS MORNING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF IT...WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOWS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
ONTARIO EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO EFFECT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 750MB WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH BEING MIXED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80...AND DOWN TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
INTO THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PACIFIC... ALMOST ZONAL FLOW
EARLY...THEN AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ALL THE WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
OVER ONTARIO. IT IS THIS UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH EMBEDDED S/WVS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MN ARROWHEAD WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND POCKETS OF LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...BKN/OVC HIGH
CLOUD COVER COVERED THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL
POOL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
THUNDER. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISBILITY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE REGION SHOULD
QUICKLY CLEAR...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST...IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SW WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS MAY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS SITUATION MIGHT SET UP WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BECAUSE THERE WILL BE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 1000
TO 2000 FOOT LAYER OVERNIGHT. TAKE OFFS AND LANDINGS MIGHT BE
BUMPY AS PLANES MOVE THROUGH THAT LAYER BETWEEN THE LIGHTER WINDS
NEAR THE SURFACE AND THE WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS ALOFT.

THE WIND SHEAR ISSUES WILL LIKELY ABATE AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...VERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. WIND GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 40 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE KINL AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD -RA AND MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO A DEEP AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  60  78  59 /  30  40   0   0
INL  84  57  72  54 /  30  10  30  10
BRD  83  62  80  59 / 100   0   0   0
HYR  82  61  79  56 /  70  40   0   0
ASX  84  63  81  59 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





000
FXUS63 KDLH 281752 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN WITH SOME NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WI FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 1 PM. LATEST HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE ALMOST NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH THE FRONT NOW INTO NW MN...WILL MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. REST OF THE FORECAST IN THE BALLPARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD STORM IN NW WI WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS JUST ENTERING THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE NORTH AT 1430Z. THE PROGNOSIS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY PER THE
LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ADJUSTED FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING
VERY WINDY TOMORROW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING
PROGRESSING IN A SIMILAR FASHION TOWARDS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS A WARM FRONT WHICH
BY 18Z WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT AN MCS WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE QUESTION OF JUST HOW WELL
THESE STORMS HOLD UP AS THEY REACH THE NORTHLAND. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND MESOANLYSIS INDICATE APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHOULD STORMS SUSTAIN...WHICH PER LATEST
RADAR/LIGHTNING THEY DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING YET...WIDESPREAD
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL
BE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMO FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THINK THE QPF OUTPUT FROM MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE SWIFT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLOODING RISK...BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RUN OUT OF STEAM
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL
HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS...BUT THINK AS SOON AS IT CROSS THE
STATE LINE WE WILL SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS STORMS
WEAKEN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH...THOUGH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
DUE TO THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STORMS
THAT DO BREAK THE CAP WILL RAPIDLY GROW DUE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...MLCAPE VALUES 2000-400 J/KG PER A BLEND OF SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE. WIND PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY 20-30KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND WEAK WINDS
AROUND 3-5KM PRODUCING A LESS-THAN-STELLAR HODOGRAPH. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP THINK THEY COULD QUICKLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...BUT NOT FOR LONG GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-
EVALUATED DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS PROGRESS THIS MORNING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF IT...WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOWS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
ONTARIO EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO EFFECT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 750MB WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH BEING MIXED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80...AND DOWN TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
INTO THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PACIFIC... ALMOST ZONAL FLOW
EARLY...THEN AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ALL THE WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
OVER ONTARIO. IT IS THIS UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH EMBEDDED S/WVS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MN ARROWHEAD WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND POCKETS OF LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...BKN/OVC HIGH
CLOUD COVER COVERED THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL
POOL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
THUNDER. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISBILITY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE REGION SHOULD
QUICKLY CLEAR...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST...IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SW WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS MAY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS SITUATION MIGHT SET UP WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BECAUSE THERE WILL BE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 1000
TO 2000 FOOT LAYER OVERNIGHT. TAKE OFFS AND LANDINGS MIGHT BE
BUMPY AS PLANES MOVE THROUGH THAT LAYER BETWEEN THE LIGHTER WINDS
NEAR THE SURFACE AND THE WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS ALOFT.

THE WIND SHEAR ISSUES WILL LIKELY ABATE AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...VERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. WIND GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 40 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE KINL AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD -RA AND MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO A DEEP AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  60  78  59 /  30  40   0   0
INL  84  57  72  54 /  30  10  30  10
BRD  83  62  80  59 / 100   0   0   0
HYR  82  61  79  56 /  70  40   0   0
ASX  84  63  81  59 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281752 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.



UPDATE ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN WITH SOME NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WI FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 1 PM. LATEST HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE ALMOST NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH THE FRONT NOW INTO NW MN...WILL MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. REST OF THE FORECAST IN THE BALLPARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD STORM IN NW WI WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS JUST ENTERING THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE NORTH AT 1430Z. THE PROGNOSIS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY PER THE
LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ADJUSTED FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING
VERY WINDY TOMORROW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING
PROGRESSING IN A SIMILAR FASHION TOWARDS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS A WARM FRONT WHICH
BY 18Z WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT AN MCS WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE QUESTION OF JUST HOW WELL
THESE STORMS HOLD UP AS THEY REACH THE NORTHLAND. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND MESOANLYSIS INDICATE APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHOULD STORMS SUSTAIN...WHICH PER LATEST
RADAR/LIGHTNING THEY DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING YET...WIDESPREAD
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL
BE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMO FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THINK THE QPF OUTPUT FROM MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE SWIFT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLOODING RISK...BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RUN OUT OF STEAM
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL
HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS...BUT THINK AS SOON AS IT CROSS THE
STATE LINE WE WILL SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS STORMS
WEAKEN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH...THOUGH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
DUE TO THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STORMS
THAT DO BREAK THE CAP WILL RAPIDLY GROW DUE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...MLCAPE VALUES 2000-400 J/KG PER A BLEND OF SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE. WIND PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY 20-30KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND WEAK WINDS
AROUND 3-5KM PRODUCING A LESS-THAN-STELLAR HODOGRAPH. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP THINK THEY COULD QUICKLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...BUT NOT FOR LONG GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-
EVALUATED DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS PROGRESS THIS MORNING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF IT...WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOWS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
ONTARIO EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO EFFECT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 750MB WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH BEING MIXED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80...AND DOWN TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
INTO THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PACIFIC... ALMOST ZONAL FLOW
EARLY...THEN AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ALL THE WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
OVER ONTARIO. IT IS THIS UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH EMBEDDED S/WVS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MN ARROWHEAD WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MUCH OF NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN HAD GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
AND POCKETS OF LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS. OTHERWISE...BKN/OVC HIGH
CLOUD COVER COVERED THE REGION.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST WILL
POOL MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY ENOUGH TO DEVELOP SOME
THUNDER. THERE COULD BE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS/VISBILITY
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE REGION SHOULD
QUICKLY CLEAR...GENERALLY FROM WEST TO EAST...IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT WHEN IT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING.

GUSTY SW WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...THE
WINDS MAY WEAKEN LATER TONIGHT WHEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES
WITH THE NOCTURNAL COOLING. THIS SITUATION MIGHT SET UP WIND SHEAR
ISSUES BECAUSE THERE WILL BE INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS IN THE 1000
TO 2000 FOOT LAYER OVERNIGHT. TAKE OFFS AND LANDINGS MIGHT BE
BUMPY AS PLANES MOVE THROUGH THAT LAYER BETWEEN THE LIGHTER WINDS
NEAR THE SURFACE AND THE WESTERLY WINDS OF 35 TO 50 KNOTS ALOFT.

THE WIND SHEAR ISSUES WILL LIKELY ABATE AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...VERY GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIXES OUT. WIND GUSTS COULD
APPROACH 40 KNOTS DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE KINL AREA WILL LIKELY SEE A PERIOD -RA AND MVFR CEILINGS LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO ITS PROXIMITY TO A DEEP AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND NW
ONTARIO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  60  78  59 /  30  40   0   0
INL  84  57  72  54 /  30  10  30  10
BRD  83  62  80  59 / 100   0   0   0
HYR  82  61  79  56 /  70  40   0   0
ASX  84  63  81  59 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281646
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1146 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN WITH SOME NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WI FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 1 PM. LATEST HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE ALMOST NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH THE FRONT NOW INTO NW MN...WILL MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. REST OF THE FORECAST IN THE BALLPARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD STORM IN NW WI WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS JUST ENTERING THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE NORTH AT 1430Z. THE PROGNOSIS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY PER THE
LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ADJUSTED FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING
VERY WINDY TOMORROW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING
PROGRESSING IN A SIMILAR FASHION TOWARDS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS A WARM FRONT WHICH
BY 18Z WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT AN MCS WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE QUESTION OF JUST HOW WELL
THESE STORMS HOLD UP AS THEY REACH THE NORTHLAND. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND MESOANLYSIS INDICATE APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHOULD STORMS SUSTAIN...WHICH PER LATEST
RADAR/LIGHTNING THEY DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING YET...WIDESPREAD
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL
BE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMO FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THINK THE QPF OUTPUT FROM MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE SWIFT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLOODING RISK...BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RUN OUT OF STEAM
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL
HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS...BUT THINK AS SOON AS IT CROSS THE
STATE LINE WE WILL SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS STORMS
WEAKEN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH...THOUGH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
DUE TO THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STORMS
THAT DO BREAK THE CAP WILL RAPIDLY GROW DUE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...MLCAPE VALUES 2000-400 J/KG PER A BLEND OF SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE. WIND PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY 20-30KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND WEAK WINDS
AROUND 3-5KM PRODUCING A LESS-THAN-STELLAR HODOGRAPH. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP THINK THEY COULD QUICKLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...BUT NOT FOR LONG GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-
EVALUATED DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS PROGRESS THIS MORNING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF IT...WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOWS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
ONTARIO EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO EFFECT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 750MB WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH BEING MIXED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80...AND DOWN TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
INTO THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PACIFIC... ALMOST ZONAL FLOW
EARLY...THEN AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ALL THE WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
OVER ONTARIO. IT IS THIS UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH EMBEDDED S/WVS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MN ARROWHEAD WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MINNESOTA PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR...BUT A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO BE VERY GUSTY TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  60  78  59 /  30  40   0   0
INL  84  57  72  54 /  30  10  30  10
BRD  83  62  80  59 / 100   0   0   0
HYR  82  61  79  56 /  70  40   0   0
ASX  84  63  81  59 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281646
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1146 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS CONTINUE TO WIND DOWN WITH SOME NEAR THE CANADIAN BORDER
AND OVER THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE WI FORECAST AREA. THIS ACTIVITY
WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 1 PM. LATEST HIRES MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE ALMOST NO ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
WITH THE FRONT NOW INTO NW MN...WILL MONITOR FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT. REST OF THE FORECAST IN THE BALLPARK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD STORM IN NW WI WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS JUST ENTERING THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE NORTH AT 1430Z. THE PROGNOSIS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY PER THE
LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ADJUSTED FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING
VERY WINDY TOMORROW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING
PROGRESSING IN A SIMILAR FASHION TOWARDS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS A WARM FRONT WHICH
BY 18Z WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT AN MCS WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE QUESTION OF JUST HOW WELL
THESE STORMS HOLD UP AS THEY REACH THE NORTHLAND. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND MESOANLYSIS INDICATE APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHOULD STORMS SUSTAIN...WHICH PER LATEST
RADAR/LIGHTNING THEY DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING YET...WIDESPREAD
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL
BE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMO FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THINK THE QPF OUTPUT FROM MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE SWIFT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLOODING RISK...BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RUN OUT OF STEAM
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL
HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS...BUT THINK AS SOON AS IT CROSS THE
STATE LINE WE WILL SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS STORMS
WEAKEN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH...THOUGH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
DUE TO THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STORMS
THAT DO BREAK THE CAP WILL RAPIDLY GROW DUE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...MLCAPE VALUES 2000-400 J/KG PER A BLEND OF SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE. WIND PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY 20-30KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND WEAK WINDS
AROUND 3-5KM PRODUCING A LESS-THAN-STELLAR HODOGRAPH. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP THINK THEY COULD QUICKLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...BUT NOT FOR LONG GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-
EVALUATED DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS PROGRESS THIS MORNING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF IT...WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOWS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
ONTARIO EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO EFFECT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 750MB WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH BEING MIXED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80...AND DOWN TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
INTO THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PACIFIC... ALMOST ZONAL FLOW
EARLY...THEN AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ALL THE WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
OVER ONTARIO. IT IS THIS UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH EMBEDDED S/WVS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MN ARROWHEAD WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MINNESOTA PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR...BUT A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO BE VERY GUSTY TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  60  78  59 /  30  40   0   0
INL  84  57  72  54 /  30  10  30  10
BRD  83  62  80  59 / 100   0   0   0
HYR  82  61  79  56 /  70  40   0   0
ASX  84  63  81  59 /  30  40   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC





000
FXUS63 KDLH 281439
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
939 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD STORM IN NW WI WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS JUST ENTERING THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE NORTH AT 1430Z. THE PROGNOSIS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY PER THE
LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ADJUSTED FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING
VERY WINDY TOMORROW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING
PROGRESSING IN A SIMILAR FASHION TOWARDS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS A WARM FRONT WHICH
BY 18Z WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT AN MCS WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE QUESTION OF JUST HOW WELL
THESE STORMS HOLD UP AS THEY REACH THE NORTHLAND. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND MESOANLYSIS INDICATE APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHOULD STORMS SUSTAIN...WHICH PER LATEST
RADAR/LIGHTNING THEY DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING YET...WIDESPREAD
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL
BE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMO FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THINK THE QPF OUTPUT FROM MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE SWIFT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLOODING RISK...BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RUN OUT OF STEAM
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL
HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS...BUT THINK AS SOON AS IT CROSS THE
STATE LINE WE WILL SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS STORMS
WEAKEN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH...THOUGH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
DUE TO THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STORMS
THAT DO BREAK THE CAP WILL RAPIDLY GROW DUE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...MLCAPE VALUES 2000-400 J/KG PER A BLEND OF SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE. WIND PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY 20-30KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND WEAK WINDS
AROUND 3-5KM PRODUCING A LESS-THAN-STELLAR HODOGRAPH. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP THINK THEY COULD QUICKLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...BUT NOT FOR LONG GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-
EVALUATED DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS PROGRESS THIS MORNING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF IT...WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOWS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
ONTARIO EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO EFFECT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 750MB WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH BEING MIXED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80...AND DOWN TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
INTO THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PACIFIC... ALMOST ZONAL FLOW
EARLY...THEN AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ALL THE WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
OVER ONTARIO. IT IS THIS UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH EMBEDDED S/WVS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MN ARROWHEAD WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MINNESOTA PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR...BUT A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO BE VERY GUSTY TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  60  78  59 /  30  40   0   0
INL  84  57  72  54 /  30  30  30  10
BRD  83  62  80  59 / 100  20   0   0
HYR  82  61  79  56 /  70  60   0   0
ASX  84  63  81  59 /  40  50   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281439
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
939 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD STORM IN NW WI WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS JUST ENTERING THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE NORTH AT 1430Z. THE PROGNOSIS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY PER THE
LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ADJUSTED FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING
VERY WINDY TOMORROW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING
PROGRESSING IN A SIMILAR FASHION TOWARDS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS A WARM FRONT WHICH
BY 18Z WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT AN MCS WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE QUESTION OF JUST HOW WELL
THESE STORMS HOLD UP AS THEY REACH THE NORTHLAND. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND MESOANLYSIS INDICATE APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHOULD STORMS SUSTAIN...WHICH PER LATEST
RADAR/LIGHTNING THEY DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING YET...WIDESPREAD
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL
BE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMO FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THINK THE QPF OUTPUT FROM MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE SWIFT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLOODING RISK...BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RUN OUT OF STEAM
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL
HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS...BUT THINK AS SOON AS IT CROSS THE
STATE LINE WE WILL SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS STORMS
WEAKEN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH...THOUGH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
DUE TO THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STORMS
THAT DO BREAK THE CAP WILL RAPIDLY GROW DUE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...MLCAPE VALUES 2000-400 J/KG PER A BLEND OF SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE. WIND PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY 20-30KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND WEAK WINDS
AROUND 3-5KM PRODUCING A LESS-THAN-STELLAR HODOGRAPH. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP THINK THEY COULD QUICKLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...BUT NOT FOR LONG GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-
EVALUATED DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS PROGRESS THIS MORNING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF IT...WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOWS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
ONTARIO EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO EFFECT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 750MB WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH BEING MIXED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80...AND DOWN TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
INTO THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PACIFIC... ALMOST ZONAL FLOW
EARLY...THEN AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ALL THE WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
OVER ONTARIO. IT IS THIS UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH EMBEDDED S/WVS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MN ARROWHEAD WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MINNESOTA PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR...BUT A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO BE VERY GUSTY TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  60  78  59 /  30  40   0   0
INL  84  57  72  54 /  30  30  30  10
BRD  83  62  80  59 / 100  20   0   0
HYR  82  61  79  56 /  70  60   0   0
ASX  84  63  81  59 /  40  50   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC





000
FXUS63 KDLH 281439
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
939 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD STORM IN NW WI WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS JUST ENTERING THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE NORTH AT 1430Z. THE PROGNOSIS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY PER THE
LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ADJUSTED FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING
VERY WINDY TOMORROW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING
PROGRESSING IN A SIMILAR FASHION TOWARDS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS A WARM FRONT WHICH
BY 18Z WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT AN MCS WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE QUESTION OF JUST HOW WELL
THESE STORMS HOLD UP AS THEY REACH THE NORTHLAND. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND MESOANLYSIS INDICATE APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHOULD STORMS SUSTAIN...WHICH PER LATEST
RADAR/LIGHTNING THEY DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING YET...WIDESPREAD
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL
BE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMO FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THINK THE QPF OUTPUT FROM MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE SWIFT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLOODING RISK...BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RUN OUT OF STEAM
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL
HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS...BUT THINK AS SOON AS IT CROSS THE
STATE LINE WE WILL SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS STORMS
WEAKEN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH...THOUGH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
DUE TO THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STORMS
THAT DO BREAK THE CAP WILL RAPIDLY GROW DUE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...MLCAPE VALUES 2000-400 J/KG PER A BLEND OF SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE. WIND PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY 20-30KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND WEAK WINDS
AROUND 3-5KM PRODUCING A LESS-THAN-STELLAR HODOGRAPH. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP THINK THEY COULD QUICKLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...BUT NOT FOR LONG GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-
EVALUATED DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS PROGRESS THIS MORNING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF IT...WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOWS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
ONTARIO EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO EFFECT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 750MB WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH BEING MIXED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80...AND DOWN TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
INTO THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PACIFIC... ALMOST ZONAL FLOW
EARLY...THEN AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ALL THE WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
OVER ONTARIO. IT IS THIS UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH EMBEDDED S/WVS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MN ARROWHEAD WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MINNESOTA PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR...BUT A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO BE VERY GUSTY TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  60  78  59 /  30  40   0   0
INL  84  57  72  54 /  30  30  30  10
BRD  83  62  80  59 / 100  20   0   0
HYR  82  61  79  56 /  70  60   0   0
ASX  84  63  81  59 /  40  50   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC





000
FXUS63 KDLH 281439
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
939 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLD STORM IN NW WI WILL DIMINISH
THROUGH THE REST OF THE MORNING. THE COLD FRONT REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND IS JUST ENTERING THE RED RIVER
VALLEY OF THE NORTH AT 1430Z. THE PROGNOSIS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER
AND STORM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS DIMINISHED GREATLY PER THE
LATEST HRRR/RAP RUNS. HAVE REDUCED POPS/QPF CONSIDERABLY FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THE WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES. ADJUSTED FOR THESE TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING
VERY WINDY TOMORROW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING
PROGRESSING IN A SIMILAR FASHION TOWARDS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS A WARM FRONT WHICH
BY 18Z WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT AN MCS WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE QUESTION OF JUST HOW WELL
THESE STORMS HOLD UP AS THEY REACH THE NORTHLAND. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND MESOANLYSIS INDICATE APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHOULD STORMS SUSTAIN...WHICH PER LATEST
RADAR/LIGHTNING THEY DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING YET...WIDESPREAD
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL
BE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMO FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THINK THE QPF OUTPUT FROM MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE SWIFT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLOODING RISK...BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RUN OUT OF STEAM
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL
HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS...BUT THINK AS SOON AS IT CROSS THE
STATE LINE WE WILL SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS STORMS
WEAKEN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH...THOUGH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
DUE TO THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STORMS
THAT DO BREAK THE CAP WILL RAPIDLY GROW DUE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...MLCAPE VALUES 2000-400 J/KG PER A BLEND OF SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE. WIND PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY 20-30KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND WEAK WINDS
AROUND 3-5KM PRODUCING A LESS-THAN-STELLAR HODOGRAPH. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP THINK THEY COULD QUICKLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...BUT NOT FOR LONG GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-
EVALUATED DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS PROGRESS THIS MORNING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF IT...WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOWS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
ONTARIO EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO EFFECT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 750MB WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH BEING MIXED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80...AND DOWN TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
INTO THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PACIFIC... ALMOST ZONAL FLOW
EARLY...THEN AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ALL THE WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
OVER ONTARIO. IT IS THIS UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH EMBEDDED S/WVS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MN ARROWHEAD WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MINNESOTA PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR...BUT A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO BE VERY GUSTY TOMORROW.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  60  78  59 /  30  40   0   0
INL  84  57  72  54 /  30  30  30  10
BRD  83  62  80  59 / 100  20   0   0
HYR  82  61  79  56 /  70  60   0   0
ASX  84  63  81  59 /  40  50   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281153 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING
VERY WINDY TOMORROW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING
PROGRESSING IN A SIMILAR FASHION TOWARDS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS A WARM FRONT WHICH
BY 18Z WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT AN MCS WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE QUESTION OF JUST HOW WELL
THESE STORMS HOLD UP AS THEY REACH THE NORTHLAND. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND MESOANLYSIS INDICATE APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHOULD STORMS SUSTAIN...WHICH PER LATEST
RADAR/LIGHTNING THEY DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING YET...WIDESPREAD
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL
BE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMO FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THINK THE QPF OUTPUT FROM MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE SWIFT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLOODING RISK...BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RUN OUT OF STEAM
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL
HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS...BUT THINK AS SOON AS IT CROSS THE
STATE LINE WE WILL SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS STORMS
WEAKEN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH...THOUGH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
DUE TO THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STORMS
THAT DO BREAK THE CAP WILL RAPIDLY GROW DUE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...MLCAPE VALUES 2000-400 J/KG PER A BLEND OF SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE. WIND PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY 20-30KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND WEAK WINDS
AROUND 3-5KM PRODUCING A LESS-THAN-STELLAR HODOGRAPH. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP THINK THEY COULD QUICKLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...BUT NOT FOR LONG GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-
EVALUATED DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS PROGRESS THIS MORNING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF IT...WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOWS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
ONTARIO EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO EFFECT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 750MB WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH BEING MIXED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80...AND DOWN TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
INTO THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PACIFIC... ALMOST ZONAL FLOW
EARLY...THEN AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ALL THE WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
OVER ONTARIO. IT IS THIS UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH EMBEDDED S/WVS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MN ARROWHEAD WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MINNESOTA PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR...BUT A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO BE VERY GUSTY TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  60  78  59 /  60  40   0   0
INL  84  57  72  54 /  50  30  30  10
BRD  83  62  80  59 /  70  20   0   0
HYR  82  61  79  56 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  84  63  81  59 /  50  50   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281153 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
653 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING
VERY WINDY TOMORROW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING
PROGRESSING IN A SIMILAR FASHION TOWARDS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS A WARM FRONT WHICH
BY 18Z WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT AN MCS WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE QUESTION OF JUST HOW WELL
THESE STORMS HOLD UP AS THEY REACH THE NORTHLAND. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND MESOANLYSIS INDICATE APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHOULD STORMS SUSTAIN...WHICH PER LATEST
RADAR/LIGHTNING THEY DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING YET...WIDESPREAD
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL
BE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMO FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THINK THE QPF OUTPUT FROM MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE SWIFT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLOODING RISK...BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RUN OUT OF STEAM
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL
HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS...BUT THINK AS SOON AS IT CROSS THE
STATE LINE WE WILL SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS STORMS
WEAKEN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH...THOUGH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
DUE TO THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STORMS
THAT DO BREAK THE CAP WILL RAPIDLY GROW DUE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...MLCAPE VALUES 2000-400 J/KG PER A BLEND OF SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE. WIND PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY 20-30KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND WEAK WINDS
AROUND 3-5KM PRODUCING A LESS-THAN-STELLAR HODOGRAPH. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP THINK THEY COULD QUICKLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...BUT NOT FOR LONG GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-
EVALUATED DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS PROGRESS THIS MORNING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF IT...WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOWS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
ONTARIO EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO EFFECT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 750MB WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH BEING MIXED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80...AND DOWN TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
INTO THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PACIFIC... ALMOST ZONAL FLOW
EARLY...THEN AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ALL THE WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
OVER ONTARIO. IT IS THIS UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH EMBEDDED S/WVS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MN ARROWHEAD WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE MINNESOTA PORTION OF
THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. CIGS WILL BE MAINLY VFR...BUT A
FEW POCKETS OF MVFR. MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE STORMS COULD HAVE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WINDS TO BE VERY GUSTY TOMORROW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  60  78  59 /  60  40   0   0
INL  84  57  72  54 /  50  30  30  10
BRD  83  62  80  59 /  70  20   0   0
HYR  82  61  79  56 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  84  63  81  59 /  50  50   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC





000
FXUS63 KDLH 280944
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
444 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A COMPLEX FORECAST IN THE SHORT TERM AS TWO ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY...THEN BECOMING
VERY WINDY TOMORROW BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTH DAKOTA/CANADA
BORDER THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH A
SECONDARY LOW ALONG THE CENTRAL ND/SD BORDER THIS MORNING
PROGRESSING IN A SIMILAR FASHION TOWARDS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
TONIGHT. FROM THIS SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS A WARM FRONT WHICH
BY 18Z WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION.
AHEAD OF THIS WARM FRONT AN MCS WAS PROGRESSING EASTWARD OUT OF THE
DAKOTAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA.

FOCUS FOR THIS MORNING WILL BE THE CONVECTION MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT...WITH THE QUESTION OF JUST HOW WELL
THESE STORMS HOLD UP AS THEY REACH THE NORTHLAND. SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE AND MESOANLYSIS INDICATE APPRECIABLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY
IS IN PLACE AS OF 09Z THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL MINNESOTA
WITH 500-1000 J/KG MUCAPE. SHOULD STORMS SUSTAIN...WHICH PER LATEST
RADAR/LIGHTNING THEY DO NOT SHOW SIGNS OF WEAKENING YET...WIDESPREAD
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING INTENSE RAINFALL WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA THIS MORNING. THIS FIRST ROUND OF STORMS WILL
BE IN A VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH PWATS APPROACHING 2.0 INCHES
ACROSS THE REGION...WHICH IS IN THE 99TH PERCENTILE COMPARED TO
CLIMO FOR PARTS OF THE REGION. THINK THE QPF OUTPUT FROM MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE IS A BIT UNDERDONE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR DOWNPOURS. STORM
MOTIONS SHOULD BE SWIFT ENOUGH TO LIMIT FLOODING RISK...BUT
LOCALIZED FLOODING IS ALWAYS POSSIBLE WITH THIS TYPE OF ENVIRONMENT.

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO RUN OUT OF STEAM
AS IT PROGRESSES INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AND THE MINNESOTA
ARROWHEAD AS IT MOVES AHEAD OF THE BEST ELEVATED INSTABILITY. STILL
HAVE SOME CONCERNS WITH THIS...BUT THINK AS SOON AS IT CROSS THE
STATE LINE WE WILL SEE A RAPID DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS STORMS
WEAKEN. ACROSS THE REST OF THE REGION THE MORNING CONVECTION WILL
DIMINISH...THOUGH THE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL MAKE FOR A MUGGY
AFTERNOON. CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH
ANY CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL/NORTHEAST MINNESOTA
WILL INCREASE THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS AFTERNOON...THE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS
EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL
BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE A STRONG CAP IN PLACE
DUE TO THE VERY WARM AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...STORMS
THAT DO BREAK THE CAP WILL RAPIDLY GROW DUE TO EXTREME
INSTABILITY...MLCAPE VALUES 2000-400 J/KG PER A BLEND OF SHORT-RANGE
GUIDANCE. WIND PROFILES ARE NOT ESPECIALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ONLY 20-30KTS EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND WEAK WINDS
AROUND 3-5KM PRODUCING A LESS-THAN-STELLAR HODOGRAPH. SHOULD STORMS
DEVELOP THINK THEY COULD QUICKLY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL...BUT NOT FOR LONG GIVEN THE WIND PROFILES...WITH GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE AS STORMS COLLAPSE. THIS THREAT WILL NEED TO BE RE-
EVALUATED DEPENDING ON HOW STORMS PROGRESS THIS MORNING...BUT AT
THIS TIME THINK THERE IS A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTHEAST MINNESOTA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...FRONT WILL CLEAR THROUGH THE CWA BY THE EVENING HOURS WITH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ARROWHEAD AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN AHEAD OF IT...WITH SKIES CLEARING BEHIND THE
FRONT. COLD AIR MOVING IN ALOFT SHOULD RESULT IN SOME LOWS REACHING
THE UPPER 50S IN NORTHEAST MINNESOTA...THOUGH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE 5 TO 10 MPH OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...WINDY WITH A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER. AS THE MAIN SFC LOW PROGRESS NORTHWARD THROUGH WESTERN
ONTARIO EXPECT SOME WRAP AROUND SHOWERS TO EFFECT THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER REGION...BUT OTHERWISE MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE REST
OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN...DEEP MIXING TO
AROUND 750MB WILL RESULT IN GUSTS TO 35-45 MPH BEING MIXED DOWN TO
THE SURFACE. HIGHS WILL BE CLOSE TO SEASONABLE IN THE MID 70S TO
NEAR 80...AND DOWN TO THE LOW 70S ACROSS THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER
INTO THE TIP OF THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD REGION.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 443 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE A PACIFIC... ALMOST ZONAL FLOW
EARLY...THEN AS THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS EXPECT A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. ALL THE WHILE A CLOSED UPPER LOW WILL BECOME SEMI-PERMANENT
OVER ONTARIO. IT IS THIS UPPER LOW THAT WILL PUSH EMBEDDED S/WVS
THROUGH THE REGION LATER IN THE WEEK. THE MN ARROWHEAD WILL HAVE A
CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT THE CHANCES OF MORE
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE IN THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONGER WAVE ROTATES ACROSS THE WESTERN
GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW
LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE DAKOTAS. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SOME OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  60  78  59 /  60  40   0   0
INL  84  57  72  54 /  50  30  30  10
BRD  83  62  80  59 /  70  20   0   0
HYR  82  61  79  56 /  50  60   0   0
ASX  84  63  81  59 /  50  50   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...CLC
AVIATION...CLC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 280531 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1231 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI AT 19Z WITH A RIDGE AXIS
INTO THE ARROWHEAD. WITH DRY AIR UNDER THIS AXIS...VERY FEW
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED AND ALLOWED HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO AROUND 35
PERCENT AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A
CU FIELD HAD FORMED WHERE WAA WAS INTERACTING WITH A VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ND.

EXPECT SOME OF THE CU TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. THE MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SFC LOW IN THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT AND THE EXITING OF THE SFC RIDGE. THIS SLOWS THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT AND THE ONSET OF ANY RAIN. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CLOSER TO 09Z IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA AS A RESULT. HAVE SPREAD THE POPS NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH 12Z.

MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT TO
WESTERN MN AT 18Z TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT UNTIL A CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING IN
WARM TEMPS. H7 TEMPS WILL VARY FROM 10 TO 12C AND KEEP ANY STORMS
ELEVATED WHEN THEY FORM. THIS INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE MOST OF THE
STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE REGION. THIS
IS REFLECTED WELL BY THE HIRES NMM/ARW EAST AND WEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AS WELL AS THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM12.
THEY DO HOWEVER POINT TOWARD THE STORMS DIMINISHING EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING BY
00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION PREVAILS. HAVE ALIGNED THE
POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
PCPN AT THE VERY BEGINNING...OTHERWISE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
OPPORTUNITY IS NOT UNTIL OVER THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
FINISHES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THE
PCPN SHOULD EXIT BY THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM12 IS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS THAN
THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF/SREF...SO LEANED ON THE LATTER MODELS WITH THEIR
FASTER PROGRESSION.

WEDNESDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN COOL WNW FLOW. THE LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND BY THE LATE MORNING. THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE NAM12/SREF/GFS
ARE INDICATING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MUCAPE...BUT CANNOT
RULE STRAY THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A
WINDY DAY. THE NAM12/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE WIND FORECAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS LATEST FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH. THE CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT SOME AREAS COULD REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES. THE WARMEST
LOCATION COULD BE PARK POINT BEACH...WHICH MIGHT APPROACH 85
DEGREES...BECAUSE OF THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING FROM THE WEST WINDS.

THURSDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN COOL AND BREEZY WNW FLOW.
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUNNIER SKIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WNW FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL LIKELY BE
ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH BREEZY WNW FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF IS THE QUICKEST AND HAS
THE MOST PROMINENT COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND GEM ARE SUGGESTING
EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1230 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE TAF
PERIOD...BUT THE THREAT FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GROW
LATER TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TUESDAY. SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE AS WELL AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM
THE DAKOTAS. SOME MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS SOME OF THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVE THROUGH. CONDITIONS WILL THEN IMPROVE FROM
WEST TO EAST ON TUESDAY EVENING.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  80  60  82 /  30   0   0   0
INL  59  75  54  80 /  10  30  10  10
BRD  61  80  58  83 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  61  78  57  81 /  60   0   0   0
ASX  64  80  58  84 /  40   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...CLC




000
FXUS63 KDLH 272350
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI AT 19Z WITH A RIDGE AXIS
INTO THE ARROWHEAD. WITH DRY AIR UNDER THIS AXIS...VERY FEW
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED AND ALLOWED HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO AROUND 35
PERCENT AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A
CU FIELD HAD FORMED WHERE WAA WAS INTERACTING WITH A VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ND.

EXPECT SOME OF THE CU TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. THE MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SFC LOW IN THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT AND THE EXITING OF THE SFC RIDGE. THIS SLOWS THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT AND THE ONSET OF ANY RAIN. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CLOSER TO 09Z IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA AS A RESULT. HAVE SPREAD THE POPS NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH 12Z.

MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT TO
WESTERN MN AT 18Z TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT UNTIL A CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING IN
WARM TEMPS. H7 TEMPS WILL VARY FROM 10 TO 12C AND KEEP ANY STORMS
ELEVATED WHEN THEY FORM. THIS INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE MOST OF THE
STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE REGION. THIS
IS REFLECTED WELL BY THE HIRES NMM/ARW EAST AND WEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AS WELL AS THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM12.
THEY DO HOWEVER POINT TOWARD THE STORMS DIMINISHING EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING BY
00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION PREVAILS. HAVE ALIGNED THE
POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
PCPN AT THE VERY BEGINNING...OTHERWISE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
OPPORTUNITY IS NOT UNTIL OVER THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
FINISHES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THE
PCPN SHOULD EXIT BY THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM12 IS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS THAN
THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF/SREF...SO LEANED ON THE LATTER MODELS WITH THEIR
FASTER PROGRESSION.

WEDNESDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN COOL WNW FLOW. THE LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND BY THE LATE MORNING. THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE NAM12/SREF/GFS
ARE INDICATING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MUCAPE...BUT CANNOT
RULE STRAY THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A
WINDY DAY. THE NAM12/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE WIND FORECAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS LATEST FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH. THE CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT SOME AREAS COULD REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES. THE WARMEST
LOCATION COULD BE PARK POINT BEACH...WHICH MIGHT APPROACH 85
DEGREES...BECAUSE OF THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING FROM THE WEST WINDS.

THURSDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN COOL AND BREEZY WNW FLOW.
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUNNIER SKIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WNW FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL LIKELY BE
ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH BREEZY WNW FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF IS THE QUICKEST AND HAS
THE MOST PROMINENT COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND GEM ARE SUGGESTING
EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SOME OF THE STORMS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ALTHOUGH THE
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  80  62  80 /  30  60  30   0
INL  68  83  59  75 /  30  60  10  30
BRD  70  85  61  80 /  70  70   0   0
HYR  69  82  61  78 /  40  60  60   0
ASX  65  86  64  80 /  20  60  40   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 272350
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI AT 19Z WITH A RIDGE AXIS
INTO THE ARROWHEAD. WITH DRY AIR UNDER THIS AXIS...VERY FEW
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED AND ALLOWED HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO AROUND 35
PERCENT AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A
CU FIELD HAD FORMED WHERE WAA WAS INTERACTING WITH A VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ND.

EXPECT SOME OF THE CU TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. THE MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SFC LOW IN THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT AND THE EXITING OF THE SFC RIDGE. THIS SLOWS THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT AND THE ONSET OF ANY RAIN. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CLOSER TO 09Z IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA AS A RESULT. HAVE SPREAD THE POPS NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH 12Z.

MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT TO
WESTERN MN AT 18Z TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT UNTIL A CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING IN
WARM TEMPS. H7 TEMPS WILL VARY FROM 10 TO 12C AND KEEP ANY STORMS
ELEVATED WHEN THEY FORM. THIS INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE MOST OF THE
STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE REGION. THIS
IS REFLECTED WELL BY THE HIRES NMM/ARW EAST AND WEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AS WELL AS THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM12.
THEY DO HOWEVER POINT TOWARD THE STORMS DIMINISHING EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING BY
00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION PREVAILS. HAVE ALIGNED THE
POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
PCPN AT THE VERY BEGINNING...OTHERWISE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
OPPORTUNITY IS NOT UNTIL OVER THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
FINISHES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THE
PCPN SHOULD EXIT BY THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM12 IS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS THAN
THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF/SREF...SO LEANED ON THE LATTER MODELS WITH THEIR
FASTER PROGRESSION.

WEDNESDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN COOL WNW FLOW. THE LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND BY THE LATE MORNING. THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE NAM12/SREF/GFS
ARE INDICATING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MUCAPE...BUT CANNOT
RULE STRAY THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A
WINDY DAY. THE NAM12/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE WIND FORECAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS LATEST FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH. THE CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT SOME AREAS COULD REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES. THE WARMEST
LOCATION COULD BE PARK POINT BEACH...WHICH MIGHT APPROACH 85
DEGREES...BECAUSE OF THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING FROM THE WEST WINDS.

THURSDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN COOL AND BREEZY WNW FLOW.
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUNNIER SKIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WNW FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL LIKELY BE
ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH BREEZY WNW FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF IS THE QUICKEST AND HAS
THE MOST PROMINENT COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND GEM ARE SUGGESTING
EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SOME OF THE STORMS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ALTHOUGH THE
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  80  62  80 /  30  60  30   0
INL  68  83  59  75 /  30  60  10  30
BRD  70  85  61  80 /  70  70   0   0
HYR  69  82  61  78 /  40  60  60   0
ASX  65  86  64  80 /  20  60  40   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 272350
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
650 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI AT 19Z WITH A RIDGE AXIS
INTO THE ARROWHEAD. WITH DRY AIR UNDER THIS AXIS...VERY FEW
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED AND ALLOWED HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO AROUND 35
PERCENT AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A
CU FIELD HAD FORMED WHERE WAA WAS INTERACTING WITH A VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ND.

EXPECT SOME OF THE CU TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. THE MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SFC LOW IN THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT AND THE EXITING OF THE SFC RIDGE. THIS SLOWS THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT AND THE ONSET OF ANY RAIN. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CLOSER TO 09Z IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA AS A RESULT. HAVE SPREAD THE POPS NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH 12Z.

MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT TO
WESTERN MN AT 18Z TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT UNTIL A CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING IN
WARM TEMPS. H7 TEMPS WILL VARY FROM 10 TO 12C AND KEEP ANY STORMS
ELEVATED WHEN THEY FORM. THIS INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE MOST OF THE
STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE REGION. THIS
IS REFLECTED WELL BY THE HIRES NMM/ARW EAST AND WEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AS WELL AS THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM12.
THEY DO HOWEVER POINT TOWARD THE STORMS DIMINISHING EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING BY
00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION PREVAILS. HAVE ALIGNED THE
POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
PCPN AT THE VERY BEGINNING...OTHERWISE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
OPPORTUNITY IS NOT UNTIL OVER THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
FINISHES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THE
PCPN SHOULD EXIT BY THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM12 IS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS THAN
THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF/SREF...SO LEANED ON THE LATTER MODELS WITH THEIR
FASTER PROGRESSION.

WEDNESDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN COOL WNW FLOW. THE LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND BY THE LATE MORNING. THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE NAM12/SREF/GFS
ARE INDICATING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MUCAPE...BUT CANNOT
RULE STRAY THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A
WINDY DAY. THE NAM12/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE WIND FORECAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS LATEST FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH. THE CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT SOME AREAS COULD REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES. THE WARMEST
LOCATION COULD BE PARK POINT BEACH...WHICH MIGHT APPROACH 85
DEGREES...BECAUSE OF THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING FROM THE WEST WINDS.

THURSDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN COOL AND BREEZY WNW FLOW.
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUNNIER SKIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WNW FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL LIKELY BE
ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH BREEZY WNW FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF IS THE QUICKEST AND HAS
THE MOST PROMINENT COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND GEM ARE SUGGESTING
EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHLAND OVERNIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT...AS A
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MOISTURE
SURGING NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND. SOME OF THE STORMS
BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE...ALTHOUGH THE
COVERAGE APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  80  62  80 /  30  60  30   0
INL  68  83  59  75 /  30  60  10  30
BRD  70  85  61  80 /  70  70   0   0
HYR  69  82  61  78 /  40  60  60   0
ASX  65  86  64  80 /  20  60  40   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 272005
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
305 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI AT 19Z WITH A RIDGE AXIS
INTO THE ARROWHEAD. WITH DRY AIR UNDER THIS AXIS...VERY FEW
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED AND ALLOWED HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO AROUND 35
PERCENT AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A
CU FIELD HAD FORMED WHERE WAA WAS INTERACTING WITH A VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ND.

EXPECT SOME OF THE CU TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. THE MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SFC LOW IN THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT AND THE EXITING OF THE SFC RIDGE. THIS SLOWS THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT AND THE ONSET OF ANY RAIN. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CLOSER TO 09Z IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA AS A RESULT. HAVE SPREAD THE POPS NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH 12Z.

MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT TO
WESTERN MN AT 18Z TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT UNTIL A CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING IN
WARM TEMPS. H7 TEMPS WILL VARY FROM 10 TO 12C AND KEEP ANY STORMS
ELEVATED WHEN THEY FORM. THIS INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE MOST OF THE
STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE REGION. THIS
IS REFLECTED WELL BY THE HIRES NMM/ARW EAST AND WEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AS WELL AS THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM12.
THEY DO HOWEVER POINT TOWARD THE STORMS DIMINISHING EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING BY
00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION PREVAILS. HAVE ALIGNED THE
POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
PCPN AT THE VERY BEGINNING...OTHERWISE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
OPPORTUNITY IS NOT UNTIL OVER THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
FINISHES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THE
PCPN SHOULD EXIT BY THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM12 IS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS THAN
THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF/SREF...SO LEANED ON THE LATTER MODELS WITH THEIR
FASTER PROGRESSION.

WEDNESDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN COOL WNW FLOW. THE LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND BY THE LATE MORNING. THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE NAM12/SREF/GFS
ARE INDICATING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MUCAPE...BUT CANNOT
RULE STRAY THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A
WINDY DAY. THE NAM12/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE WIND FORECAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS LATEST FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH. THE CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT SOME AREAS COULD REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES. THE WARMEST
LOCATION COULD BE PARK POINT BEACH...WHICH MIGHT APPROACH 85
DEGREES...BECAUSE OF THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING FROM THE WEST WINDS.

THURSDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN COOL AND BREEZY WNW FLOW.
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUNNIER SKIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WNW FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL LIKELY BE
ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH BREEZY WNW FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF IS THE QUICKEST AND HAS
THE MOST PROMINENT COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND GEM ARE SUGGESTING
EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOT
SSE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT YET THINK THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECASTS.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COULD DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE KBRD AND KINL AREAS
WOULD LIKELY BE THE FIRST AREAS TO BE AFFECTED...FOLLOWED BY
OTHER TERMINALS AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD TO THE EAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING AND CHANCES...SO KEPT
DETAILS VAGUE FOR NOW. THE CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY THUNDER
IS LOW FOR MOST TERMINALS...BUT IT IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE KBRD
AREA TO ADD A PERIOD OF VCTS FOR KBRD.

THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  80  62  80 /  30  60  30   0
INL  68  83  59  75 /  30  60  10  30
BRD  70  85  61  80 /  70  70   0   0
HYR  69  82  61  78 /  40  60  60   0
ASX  65  86  64  80 /  20  60  40   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





000
FXUS63 KDLH 272005
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
305 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL WI AT 19Z WITH A RIDGE AXIS
INTO THE ARROWHEAD. WITH DRY AIR UNDER THIS AXIS...VERY FEW
CLOUDS HAVE FORMED AND ALLOWED HUMIDITIES TO DROP TO AROUND 35
PERCENT AWAY FROM LAKE SUPERIOR. TO THE WEST OF THE RIDGE AXIS...A
CU FIELD HAD FORMED WHERE WAA WAS INTERACTING WITH A VORT MAX
MOVING THROUGH EASTERN ND.

EXPECT SOME OF THE CU TO DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. THE MODELS HAVE
SLOWED DOWN WITH THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SFC LOW IN THE DAKOTAS
TONIGHT AND THE EXITING OF THE SFC RIDGE. THIS SLOWS THE ARRIVAL
OF THE FRONT AND THE ONSET OF ANY RAIN. HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE
ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CLOSER TO 09Z IN THE
BRAINERD LAKES AREA AS A RESULT. HAVE SPREAD THE POPS NORTH AND
EAST THROUGH 12Z.

MODELS ARE POINTING TOWARD THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT TO
WESTERN MN AT 18Z TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF
THIS FRONT UNTIL A CAPPING INVERSION STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z DUE TO A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ADVECTING IN
WARM TEMPS. H7 TEMPS WILL VARY FROM 10 TO 12C AND KEEP ANY STORMS
ELEVATED WHEN THEY FORM. THIS INVERSION WILL PRECLUDE MOST OF THE
STORMS FROM BECOMING SEVERE AND THEIR IMPACT ON THE REGION. THIS
IS REFLECTED WELL BY THE HIRES NMM/ARW EAST AND WEST MODEL
SOLUTIONS...AS WELL AS THE GFS AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE NAM12.
THEY DO HOWEVER POINT TOWARD THE STORMS DIMINISHING EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...EVEN THOUGH IT APPEARS THE FRONT WILL BE ARRIVING BY
00Z WEDNESDAY AS THE CAPPING INVERSION PREVAILS. HAVE ALIGNED THE
POPS TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

OVERALL...SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THERE IS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
PCPN AT THE VERY BEGINNING...OTHERWISE THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
OPPORTUNITY IS NOT UNTIL OVER THE WEEKEND.

TUESDAY NIGHT...THERE COULD BE LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
FINISHES MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHLAND FROM WEST TO EAST. MOST OF THE
PCPN SHOULD EXIT BY THE WEE HOURS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE NAM12 IS
CONSIDERABLY SLOWER WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE SHOWERS/STORMS THAN
THE GFS/GEM/ECMWF/SREF...SO LEANED ON THE LATTER MODELS WITH THEIR
FASTER PROGRESSION.

WEDNESDAY...A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT FROM SOUTHERN MANITOBA
INTO FAR NW ONTARIO. THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN COOL WNW FLOW. THE LOW
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCATTERED/BROKEN
CUMULUS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND BY THE LATE MORNING. THERE COULD BE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO RESULT IN RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE NAM12/SREF/GFS
ARE INDICATING VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ANY MUCAPE...BUT CANNOT
RULE STRAY THUNDER DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE A
WINDY DAY. THE NAM12/GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH DURING THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SLIGHTLY INCREASED THE WIND FORECAST FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS LATEST FORECAST HAS WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED
WIND SPEEDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35 MPH. THE CLOUD
COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES LIMITED TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S...EXCEPT SOME AREAS COULD REACH NEAR 80 DEGREES. THE WARMEST
LOCATION COULD BE PARK POINT BEACH...WHICH MIGHT APPROACH 85
DEGREES...BECAUSE OF THE DOWNSLOPE WARMING FROM THE WEST WINDS.

THURSDAY...THE NORTHLAND WILL BE IN COOL AND BREEZY WNW FLOW.
INCREASING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE SUNNIER SKIES. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND 80 DEGREES.

THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A
WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE NE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE
NORTHLAND WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE WNW FLOW ALOFT. IT WILL LIKELY BE
ANOTHER SUNNY DAY WITH BREEZY WNW FLOW AND HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

THIS WEEKEND...THE GFS/ECMWF/GEM ARE INDICATING A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHLAND AND PROVIDE THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS ARE LACKING AGREEMENT AS TO
THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ECMWF IS THE QUICKEST AND HAS
THE MOST PROMINENT COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS OCCURRING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE GFS AND GEM ARE SUGGESTING
EITHER SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. LEANED ON A BLEND FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOT
SSE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT YET THINK THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECASTS.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COULD DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE KBRD AND KINL AREAS
WOULD LIKELY BE THE FIRST AREAS TO BE AFFECTED...FOLLOWED BY
OTHER TERMINALS AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD TO THE EAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING AND CHANCES...SO KEPT
DETAILS VAGUE FOR NOW. THE CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY THUNDER
IS LOW FOR MOST TERMINALS...BUT IT IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE KBRD
AREA TO ADD A PERIOD OF VCTS FOR KBRD.

THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  80  62  80 /  30  60  30   0
INL  68  83  59  75 /  30  60  10  30
BRD  70  85  61  80 /  70  70   0   0
HYR  69  82  61  78 /  40  60  60   0
ASX  65  86  64  80 /  20  60  40   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GSF
LONG TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KDLH 271745 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR CROW WING AND CASS COUNTIES AS
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. REST OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST TODAY AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ARE FORECAST BY QUITE A FEW OF THE MODELS TO FALL APART AS IT
NEARS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW CAMS DO BRING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
PARTS OF OUR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES LATER TODAY. WE WENT DRY
INLAND FOR MOST AREAS THINKING THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL STAY
OUT OF OUR CWA. THERE MAY AGAIN BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A MENTION ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL AGAIN
BE WARM WITH HIGHS 84 TO 90.

AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT QUICKLY NORTH.
BOTH THE GFS/NAM INDICATE PWAT VALUES RISING TO 2 INCHES OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WE EXPECT
STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
PRESENT...WE FELL CONFIDENT IN HAVING HIGHER POPS FOR MOST AREAS.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT COULD BE QUITE STRONG TO
SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM AITKIN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS.
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PRESENT...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY MORNING SO AS THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVES
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. CLOUD DEBRIS AND EXTENT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL BE COMPLICATING FACTORS THOUGH...AND COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/STORMS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDY AND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL DEW POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL RESULT
IN IT FEELING MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SFC
COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND BY 12Z WED. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WINDY DAYS...WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO AROUND 750MB. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LATER IN THE
WEEK A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUPPORTING ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 C THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW SATURDAY WITH A NW-SE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOT
SSE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT YET THINK THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECASTS.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COULD DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE KBRD AND KINL AREAS
WOULD LIKELY BE THE FIRST AREAS TO BE AFFECTED...FOLLOWED BY
OTHER TERMINALS AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD TO THE EAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING AND CHANCES...SO KEPT
DETAILS VAGUE FOR NOW. THE CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY THUNDER
IS LOW FOR MOST TERMINALS...BUT IT IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE KBRD
AREA TO ADD A PERIOD OF VCTS FOR KBRD.

THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  88  68  83  62 /  10  50  70  30
INL  90  68  83  60 /  10  60  70  30
BRD  87  70  85  62 /  10  70  60   0
HYR  87  69  83  61 /  10  40  60  40
ASX  88  66  86  64 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





000
FXUS63 KDLH 271745 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR CROW WING AND CASS COUNTIES AS
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. REST OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST TODAY AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ARE FORECAST BY QUITE A FEW OF THE MODELS TO FALL APART AS IT
NEARS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW CAMS DO BRING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
PARTS OF OUR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES LATER TODAY. WE WENT DRY
INLAND FOR MOST AREAS THINKING THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL STAY
OUT OF OUR CWA. THERE MAY AGAIN BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A MENTION ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL AGAIN
BE WARM WITH HIGHS 84 TO 90.

AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT QUICKLY NORTH.
BOTH THE GFS/NAM INDICATE PWAT VALUES RISING TO 2 INCHES OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WE EXPECT
STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
PRESENT...WE FELL CONFIDENT IN HAVING HIGHER POPS FOR MOST AREAS.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT COULD BE QUITE STRONG TO
SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM AITKIN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS.
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PRESENT...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY MORNING SO AS THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVES
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. CLOUD DEBRIS AND EXTENT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL BE COMPLICATING FACTORS THOUGH...AND COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/STORMS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDY AND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL DEW POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL RESULT
IN IT FEELING MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SFC
COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND BY 12Z WED. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WINDY DAYS...WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO AROUND 750MB. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LATER IN THE
WEEK A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUPPORTING ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 C THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW SATURDAY WITH A NW-SE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOT
SSE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT YET THINK THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECASTS.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COULD DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE KBRD AND KINL AREAS
WOULD LIKELY BE THE FIRST AREAS TO BE AFFECTED...FOLLOWED BY
OTHER TERMINALS AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD TO THE EAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING AND CHANCES...SO KEPT
DETAILS VAGUE FOR NOW. THE CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY THUNDER
IS LOW FOR MOST TERMINALS...BUT IT IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE KBRD
AREA TO ADD A PERIOD OF VCTS FOR KBRD.

THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  88  68  83  62 /  10  50  70  30
INL  90  68  83  60 /  10  60  70  30
BRD  87  70  85  62 /  10  70  60   0
HYR  87  69  83  61 /  10  40  60  40
ASX  88  66  86  64 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KDLH 271745 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR CROW WING AND CASS COUNTIES AS
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. REST OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST TODAY AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ARE FORECAST BY QUITE A FEW OF THE MODELS TO FALL APART AS IT
NEARS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW CAMS DO BRING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
PARTS OF OUR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES LATER TODAY. WE WENT DRY
INLAND FOR MOST AREAS THINKING THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL STAY
OUT OF OUR CWA. THERE MAY AGAIN BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A MENTION ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL AGAIN
BE WARM WITH HIGHS 84 TO 90.

AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT QUICKLY NORTH.
BOTH THE GFS/NAM INDICATE PWAT VALUES RISING TO 2 INCHES OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WE EXPECT
STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
PRESENT...WE FELL CONFIDENT IN HAVING HIGHER POPS FOR MOST AREAS.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT COULD BE QUITE STRONG TO
SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM AITKIN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS.
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PRESENT...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY MORNING SO AS THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVES
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. CLOUD DEBRIS AND EXTENT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL BE COMPLICATING FACTORS THOUGH...AND COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/STORMS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDY AND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL DEW POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL RESULT
IN IT FEELING MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SFC
COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND BY 12Z WED. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WINDY DAYS...WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO AROUND 750MB. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LATER IN THE
WEEK A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUPPORTING ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 C THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW SATURDAY WITH A NW-SE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOT
SSE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT YET THINK THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECASTS.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COULD DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE KBRD AND KINL AREAS
WOULD LIKELY BE THE FIRST AREAS TO BE AFFECTED...FOLLOWED BY
OTHER TERMINALS AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD TO THE EAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING AND CHANCES...SO KEPT
DETAILS VAGUE FOR NOW. THE CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY THUNDER
IS LOW FOR MOST TERMINALS...BUT IT IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE KBRD
AREA TO ADD A PERIOD OF VCTS FOR KBRD.

THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  88  68  83  62 /  10  50  70  30
INL  90  68  83  60 /  10  60  70  30
BRD  87  70  85  62 /  10  70  60   0
HYR  87  69  83  61 /  10  40  60  40
ASX  88  66  86  64 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI




000
FXUS63 KDLH 271745 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED FOR THE NEW 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW.


UPDATE ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR CROW WING AND CASS COUNTIES AS
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. REST OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST TODAY AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ARE FORECAST BY QUITE A FEW OF THE MODELS TO FALL APART AS IT
NEARS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW CAMS DO BRING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
PARTS OF OUR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES LATER TODAY. WE WENT DRY
INLAND FOR MOST AREAS THINKING THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL STAY
OUT OF OUR CWA. THERE MAY AGAIN BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A MENTION ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL AGAIN
BE WARM WITH HIGHS 84 TO 90.

AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT QUICKLY NORTH.
BOTH THE GFS/NAM INDICATE PWAT VALUES RISING TO 2 INCHES OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WE EXPECT
STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
PRESENT...WE FELL CONFIDENT IN HAVING HIGHER POPS FOR MOST AREAS.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT COULD BE QUITE STRONG TO
SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM AITKIN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS.
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PRESENT...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY MORNING SO AS THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVES
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. CLOUD DEBRIS AND EXTENT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL BE COMPLICATING FACTORS THOUGH...AND COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/STORMS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDY AND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL DEW POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL RESULT
IN IT FEELING MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SFC
COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND BY 12Z WED. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WINDY DAYS...WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO AROUND 750MB. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LATER IN THE
WEEK A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUPPORTING ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 C THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW SATURDAY WITH A NW-SE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

THE VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS NE MINNESOTA AND NW WISCONSIN WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. EXPECT ABOUT 10 TO 15 KNOT
SSE WINDS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AFTER
SUNSET. THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET
TONIGHT...BUT DO NOT YET THINK THE WINDS ALOFT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE FORECASTS.

THERE WILL BE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
TONIGHT. THE LOW LEVEL JET...COMBINED WITH INSTABILITY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COULD DEVELOP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE KBRD AND KINL AREAS
WOULD LIKELY BE THE FIRST AREAS TO BE AFFECTED...FOLLOWED BY
OTHER TERMINALS AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS SPREAD TO THE EAST INTO
TUESDAY MORNING. NOT CONFIDENT ON THE TIMING AND CHANCES...SO KEPT
DETAILS VAGUE FOR NOW. THE CONFIDENCE ON THE TIMING OF ANY THUNDER
IS LOW FOR MOST TERMINALS...BUT IT IS HIGH ENOUGH FOR THE KBRD
AREA TO ADD A PERIOD OF VCTS FOR KBRD.

THERE COULD BE PERIODS OF LOW CLOUD COVER LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR/MVFR CEILINGS.

GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  88  68  83  62 /  10  50  70  30
INL  90  68  83  60 /  10  60  70  30
BRD  87  70  85  62 /  10  70  60   0
HYR  87  69  83  61 /  10  40  60  40
ASX  88  66  86  64 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GROCHOCINSKI
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI





000
FXUS63 KDLH 271349
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
849 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR CROW WING AND CASS COUNTIES AS
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. REST OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST TODAY AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ARE FORECAST BY QUITE A FEW OF THE MODELS TO FALL APART AS IT
NEARS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW CAMS DO BRING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
PARTS OF OUR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES LATER TODAY. WE WENT DRY
INLAND FOR MOST AREAS THINKING THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL STAY
OUT OF OUR CWA. THERE MAY AGAIN BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A MENTION ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL AGAIN
BE WARM WITH HIGHS 84 TO 90.

AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT QUICKLY NORTH.
BOTH THE GFS/NAM INDICATE PWAT VALUES RISING TO 2 INCHES OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WE EXPECT
STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
PRESENT...WE FELL CONFIDENT IN HAVING HIGHER POPS FOR MOST AREAS.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT COULD BE QUITE STRONG TO
SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM AITKIN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS.
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PRESENT...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY MORNING SO AS THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVES
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. CLOUD DEBRIS AND EXTENT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL BE COMPLICATING FACTORS THOUGH...AND COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/STORMS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDY AND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL DEW POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL RESULT
IN IT FEELING MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SFC
COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND BY 12Z WED. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WINDY DAYS...WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO AROUND 750MB. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LATER IN THE
WEEK A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUPPORTING ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 C THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW SATURDAY WITH A NW-SE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH CEILINGS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO NEAR MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS DEVELOP
AHEAD OF STORMS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
15-20KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MAINLY IMPACTING
BRD BEFORE 12Z BUT EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS ON
TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  88  68  83  62 /  10  50  70  30
INL  90  68  83  60 /  10  60  70  30
BRD  87  70  85  62 /  10  70  60   0
HYR  87  69  83  61 /  10  40  60  40
ASX  88  66  86  64 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 271349
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
849 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR CROW WING AND CASS COUNTIES AS
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. REST OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST TODAY AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ARE FORECAST BY QUITE A FEW OF THE MODELS TO FALL APART AS IT
NEARS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW CAMS DO BRING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
PARTS OF OUR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES LATER TODAY. WE WENT DRY
INLAND FOR MOST AREAS THINKING THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL STAY
OUT OF OUR CWA. THERE MAY AGAIN BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A MENTION ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL AGAIN
BE WARM WITH HIGHS 84 TO 90.

AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT QUICKLY NORTH.
BOTH THE GFS/NAM INDICATE PWAT VALUES RISING TO 2 INCHES OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WE EXPECT
STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
PRESENT...WE FELL CONFIDENT IN HAVING HIGHER POPS FOR MOST AREAS.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT COULD BE QUITE STRONG TO
SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM AITKIN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS.
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PRESENT...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY MORNING SO AS THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVES
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. CLOUD DEBRIS AND EXTENT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL BE COMPLICATING FACTORS THOUGH...AND COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/STORMS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDY AND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL DEW POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL RESULT
IN IT FEELING MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SFC
COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND BY 12Z WED. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WINDY DAYS...WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO AROUND 750MB. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LATER IN THE
WEEK A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUPPORTING ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 C THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW SATURDAY WITH A NW-SE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH CEILINGS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO NEAR MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS DEVELOP
AHEAD OF STORMS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
15-20KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MAINLY IMPACTING
BRD BEFORE 12Z BUT EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS ON
TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  88  68  83  62 /  10  50  70  30
INL  90  68  83  60 /  10  60  70  30
BRD  87  70  85  62 /  10  70  60   0
HYR  87  69  83  61 /  10  40  60  40
ASX  88  66  86  64 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 271349
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
849 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 849 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER A BIT FOR CROW WING AND CASS COUNTIES AS
LOW LEVEL STRATUS IS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA FROM WEST CENTRAL
MINNESOTA. MODELS INDICATE THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. REST OF THE
FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST TODAY AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ARE FORECAST BY QUITE A FEW OF THE MODELS TO FALL APART AS IT
NEARS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW CAMS DO BRING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
PARTS OF OUR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES LATER TODAY. WE WENT DRY
INLAND FOR MOST AREAS THINKING THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL STAY
OUT OF OUR CWA. THERE MAY AGAIN BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A MENTION ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL AGAIN
BE WARM WITH HIGHS 84 TO 90.

AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT QUICKLY NORTH.
BOTH THE GFS/NAM INDICATE PWAT VALUES RISING TO 2 INCHES OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WE EXPECT
STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
PRESENT...WE FELL CONFIDENT IN HAVING HIGHER POPS FOR MOST AREAS.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT COULD BE QUITE STRONG TO
SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM AITKIN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS.
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PRESENT...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY MORNING SO AS THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVES
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. CLOUD DEBRIS AND EXTENT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL BE COMPLICATING FACTORS THOUGH...AND COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/STORMS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDY AND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL DEW POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL RESULT
IN IT FEELING MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SFC
COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND BY 12Z WED. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WINDY DAYS...WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO AROUND 750MB. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LATER IN THE
WEEK A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUPPORTING ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 C THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW SATURDAY WITH A NW-SE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH CEILINGS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO NEAR MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS DEVELOP
AHEAD OF STORMS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
15-20KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MAINLY IMPACTING
BRD BEFORE 12Z BUT EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS ON
TUESDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  88  68  83  62 /  10  50  70  30
INL  90  68  83  60 /  10  60  70  30
BRD  87  70  85  62 /  10  70  60   0
HYR  87  69  83  61 /  10  40  60  40
ASX  88  66  86  64 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...GSF
SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM





000
FXUS63 KDLH 271149
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST TODAY AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ARE FORECAST BY QUITE A FEW OF THE MODELS TO FALL APART AS IT
NEARS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW CAMS DO BRING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
PARTS OF OUR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES LATER TODAY. WE WENT DRY
INLAND FOR MOST AREAS THINKING THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL STAY
OUT OF OUR CWA. THERE MAY AGAIN BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A MENTION ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL AGAIN
BE WARM WITH HIGHS 84 TO 90.

AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT QUICKLY NORTH.
BOTH THE GFS/NAM INDICATE PWAT VALUES RISING TO 2 INCHES OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WE EXPECT
STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
PRESENT...WE FELL CONFIDENT IN HAVING HIGHER POPS FOR MOST AREAS.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT COULD BE QUITE STRONG TO
SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM AITKIN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS.
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PRESENT...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY MORNING SO AS THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVES
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. CLOUD DEBRIS AND EXTENT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL BE COMPLICATING FACTORS THOUGH...AND COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/STORMS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDY AND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL DEW POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL RESULT
IN IT FEELING MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SFC
COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND BY 12Z WED. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WINDY DAYS...WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO AROUND 750MB. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LATER IN THE
WEEK A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUPPORTING ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 C THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW SATURDAY WITH A NW-SE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH CEILINGS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO NEAR MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS DEVELOP
AHEAD OF STORMS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
15-20KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MAINLY IMPACTING
BRD BEFORE 12Z BUT EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  88  68  83  62 /  10  50  70  30
INL  90  68  83  60 /  10  60  70  30
BRD  87  70  85  62 /  10  70  60   0
HYR  87  69  83  61 /  10  40  60  40
ASX  88  66  86  64 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 271149
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST TODAY AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ARE FORECAST BY QUITE A FEW OF THE MODELS TO FALL APART AS IT
NEARS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW CAMS DO BRING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
PARTS OF OUR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES LATER TODAY. WE WENT DRY
INLAND FOR MOST AREAS THINKING THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL STAY
OUT OF OUR CWA. THERE MAY AGAIN BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A MENTION ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL AGAIN
BE WARM WITH HIGHS 84 TO 90.

AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT QUICKLY NORTH.
BOTH THE GFS/NAM INDICATE PWAT VALUES RISING TO 2 INCHES OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WE EXPECT
STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
PRESENT...WE FELL CONFIDENT IN HAVING HIGHER POPS FOR MOST AREAS.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT COULD BE QUITE STRONG TO
SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM AITKIN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS.
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PRESENT...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY MORNING SO AS THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVES
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. CLOUD DEBRIS AND EXTENT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL BE COMPLICATING FACTORS THOUGH...AND COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/STORMS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDY AND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL DEW POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL RESULT
IN IT FEELING MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SFC
COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND BY 12Z WED. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WINDY DAYS...WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO AROUND 750MB. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LATER IN THE
WEEK A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUPPORTING ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 C THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW SATURDAY WITH A NW-SE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH CEILINGS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO NEAR MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS DEVELOP
AHEAD OF STORMS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
15-20KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MAINLY IMPACTING
BRD BEFORE 12Z BUT EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  88  68  83  62 /  10  50  70  30
INL  90  68  83  60 /  10  60  70  30
BRD  87  70  85  62 /  10  70  60   0
HYR  87  69  83  61 /  10  40  60  40
ASX  88  66  86  64 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM





000
FXUS63 KDLH 271149
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST TODAY AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ARE FORECAST BY QUITE A FEW OF THE MODELS TO FALL APART AS IT
NEARS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW CAMS DO BRING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
PARTS OF OUR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES LATER TODAY. WE WENT DRY
INLAND FOR MOST AREAS THINKING THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL STAY
OUT OF OUR CWA. THERE MAY AGAIN BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A MENTION ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL AGAIN
BE WARM WITH HIGHS 84 TO 90.

AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT QUICKLY NORTH.
BOTH THE GFS/NAM INDICATE PWAT VALUES RISING TO 2 INCHES OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WE EXPECT
STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
PRESENT...WE FELL CONFIDENT IN HAVING HIGHER POPS FOR MOST AREAS.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT COULD BE QUITE STRONG TO
SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM AITKIN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS.
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PRESENT...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY MORNING SO AS THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVES
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. CLOUD DEBRIS AND EXTENT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL BE COMPLICATING FACTORS THOUGH...AND COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/STORMS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDY AND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL DEW POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL RESULT
IN IT FEELING MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SFC
COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND BY 12Z WED. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WINDY DAYS...WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO AROUND 750MB. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LATER IN THE
WEEK A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUPPORTING ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 C THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW SATURDAY WITH A NW-SE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH CEILINGS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO NEAR MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS DEVELOP
AHEAD OF STORMS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
15-20KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MAINLY IMPACTING
BRD BEFORE 12Z BUT EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  88  68  83  62 /  10  50  70  30
INL  90  68  83  60 /  10  60  70  30
BRD  87  70  85  62 /  10  70  60   0
HYR  87  69  83  61 /  10  40  60  40
ASX  88  66  86  64 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 271149
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
649 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST TODAY AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ARE FORECAST BY QUITE A FEW OF THE MODELS TO FALL APART AS IT
NEARS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW CAMS DO BRING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
PARTS OF OUR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES LATER TODAY. WE WENT DRY
INLAND FOR MOST AREAS THINKING THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL STAY
OUT OF OUR CWA. THERE MAY AGAIN BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A MENTION ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL AGAIN
BE WARM WITH HIGHS 84 TO 90.

AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT QUICKLY NORTH.
BOTH THE GFS/NAM INDICATE PWAT VALUES RISING TO 2 INCHES OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WE EXPECT
STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
PRESENT...WE FELL CONFIDENT IN HAVING HIGHER POPS FOR MOST AREAS.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT COULD BE QUITE STRONG TO
SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM AITKIN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS.
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PRESENT...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY MORNING SO AS THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVES
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. CLOUD DEBRIS AND EXTENT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL BE COMPLICATING FACTORS THOUGH...AND COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/STORMS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDY AND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL DEW POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL RESULT
IN IT FEELING MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SFC
COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND BY 12Z WED. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WINDY DAYS...WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO AROUND 750MB. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LATER IN THE
WEEK A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUPPORTING ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 C THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW SATURDAY WITH A NW-SE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR THROUGH THE DAY TODAY AND INTO THE EVENING...WITH CEILINGS
GRADUALLY DIMINISHING TO NEAR MVFR LATE TONIGHT AS CLOUDS DEVELOP
AHEAD OF STORMS. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST TO
15-20KTS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...DIMINISHING TOWARDS THE EVENING.
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING EXPECT A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MAINLY IMPACTING
BRD BEFORE 12Z BUT EVENTUALLY MOVING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  88  68  83  62 /  10  50  70  30
INL  90  68  83  60 /  10  60  70  30
BRD  87  70  85  62 /  10  70  60   0
HYR  87  69  83  61 /  10  40  60  40
ASX  88  66  86  64 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM





000
FXUS63 KDLH 270849
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST TODAY AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ARE FORECAST BY QUITE A FEW OF THE MODELS TO FALL APART AS IT
NEARS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW CAMS DO BRING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
PARTS OF OUR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES LATER TODAY. WE WENT DRY
INLAND FOR MOST AREAS THINKING THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL STAY
OUT OF OUR CWA. THERE MAY AGAIN BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A MENTION ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL AGAIN
BE WARM WITH HIGHS 84 TO 90.

AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT QUICKLY NORTH.
BOTH THE GFS/NAM INDICATE PWAT VALUES RISING TO 2 INCHES OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WE EXPECT
STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
PRESENT...WE FELL CONFIDENT IN HAVING HIGHER POPS FOR MOST AREAS.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT COULD BE QUITE STRONG TO
SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM AITKIN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS.
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PRESENT...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY MORNING SO AS THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVES
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. CLOUD DEBRIS AND EXTENT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL BE COMPLICATING FACTORS THOUGH...AND COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/STORMS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDY AND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL DEW POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL RESULT
IN IT FEELING MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SFC
COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND BY 12Z WED. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WINDY DAYS...WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO AROUND 750MB. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LATER IN THE
WEEK A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUPPORTING ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 C THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW SATURDAY WITH A NW-SE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE LESSENING MONDAY
NIGHT... IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  87  68  83  62 /  10  50  70  30
INL  90  68  83  60 /  10  60  70  30
BRD  87  70  85  62 /  10  70  60   0
HYR  87  69  83  61 /  10  40  60  40
ASX  88  66  86  64 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MCLOVIN





000
FXUS63 KDLH 270849
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
349 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST FOCUS WILL BE ON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL GRADUALLY
GET SHUNTED TO THE EAST TODAY AS A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE UPPER LOW WAS EVIDENT OVER THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST EARLY THIS MORNING. THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING
THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL SD/SOUTH CENTRAL ND EARLY THIS MORNING AND
ARE FORECAST BY QUITE A FEW OF THE MODELS TO FALL APART AS IT
NEARS OUR CWA. HOWEVER...A FEW CAMS DO BRING SHOWERS/STORMS INTO
PARTS OF OUR NORTHEAST MINNESOTA ZONES LATER TODAY. WE WENT DRY
INLAND FOR MOST AREAS THINKING THIS COMPLEX OF STORMS WILL STAY
OUT OF OUR CWA. THERE MAY AGAIN BE A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FIRE
ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON AND WE HAVE A MENTION ALONG
THE NORTH SHORE AND OVER NORTHERN BAYFIELD COUNTY. IT WILL AGAIN
BE WARM WITH HIGHS 84 TO 90.

AS THE LLJ CRANKS UP TONIGHT...MOISTURE WILL ADVECT QUICKLY NORTH.
BOTH THE GFS/NAM INDICATE PWAT VALUES RISING TO 2 INCHES OVER OUR
WESTERN ZONES BY 12Z TUESDAY WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL. WE EXPECT
STORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NORTHLAND LATE
TONIGHT...SPREADING EAST TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT AND GIVEN STRENGTH OF THE FORCING AND MOISTURE
PRESENT...WE FELL CONFIDENT IN HAVING HIGHER POPS FOR MOST AREAS.
SOME OF THE STORMS LATE TONIGHT COULD BE QUITE STRONG TO
SEVERE...MAINLY WEST OF A LINE FROM AITKIN TO INTERNATIONAL FALLS.
GIVEN THE MOISTURE PRESENT...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE A THREAT.

THE FRONT AND UPPER LOW WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE NORTHLAND
TUESDAY MORNING SO AS THE MORNING CONVECTION MOVES
EAST...ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE...SOME STRONG TO
POSSIBLY SEVERE. CLOUD DEBRIS AND EXTENT OF THE ONGOING CONVECTION
WILL BE COMPLICATING FACTORS THOUGH...AND COULD LIMIT HOW MUCH
INSTABILITY DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO BE AS WARM AS TODAY GIVEN EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/STORMS. HOWEVER IT WILL BE MORE HUMID.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 302 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WINDY AND COOLER ON WEDNESDAY IN WAKE OF A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY BENIGN WEATHER THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE
FOR PRECIP TOWARDS THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS WILL BE
MUCH LOWER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK...WHILE HIGHS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL DEW POINT VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WILL RESULT
IN IT FEELING MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A STACKED LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ONTARIO WILL MOVE
NORTH/NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS HUDSON BAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE SFC
COLD FRONT FRONT THROUGH THE NORTHLAND BY 12Z WED. BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT WINDS WILL BE STRONG WITH WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A VERY
WINDY DAYS...WITH DEEP MIXING UP TO AROUND 750MB. WINDS ALOFT WILL
BE IN THE 30 TO 40 KT RANGE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA BEING MET FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MINNESOTA. LATER IN THE
WEEK A RIDGE ALOFT WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
SUPPORTING ZONAL TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST.
850MB TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM 12 TO 16 C THROUGH THE REST OF THE
WEEK...SUPPORTING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. EXPECT A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS THE FLOW SATURDAY WITH A NW-SE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION ON
SATURDAY. OTHERWISE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE LESSENING MONDAY
NIGHT... IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  87  68  83  62 /  10  50  70  30
INL  90  68  83  60 /  10  60  70  30
BRD  87  70  85  62 /  10  70  60   0
HYR  87  69  83  61 /  10  40  60  40
ASX  88  66  86  64 /  10  30  60  40

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...MCLOVIN




000
FXUS63 KDLH 270552
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GETTING
SLOWLY PUSHED EAST BY OUR STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS DUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE OF LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES...AND
AGAIN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD COUNTY ON EAST. THIS
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT THE
AIRMASS TO BECOME CAPPED AND HOT WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT COOK...SOUTH THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. 700MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C OR HIGHER
WEST OF THAT LINE...IN SOME PLACES APPROACHING 10C TOWARDS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PRODUCING AN EFFECTIVE CAP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD AID IN PRODUCING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S ONCE
AGAIN...WITH EVEN A FEW VALUES IN THE LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS TO ALSO
BE INCREASING...SURGING INTO THE MID 60S WEST AND SOUTH...TO
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES FLIRTING
WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND HAVE PUT A MENTION OF THIS IN
THE HWO...AND WE MAY NEED TO DO A SHORT TERM ADVISORY FOR A FEW
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE TROF OVER BC THIS AFTERNOON
PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE...HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY ON TAP FOR TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE GREATEST THREAT.

RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HAS GENERALLY BEEN GOOD...RESULTING IN SEVERAL
CYCLES OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THE COMBINATION OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE HAS
CONSISTENTLY YIELDED HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER
90S. WHILE HEAT ADVISORIES DO NOT SEEM WARRANTED BASED ON THIS
PACKAGE...THEY MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF US HWY 2 DEPENDING ON HOW LONG
CLOUDS LINGER ON TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING/WEAKENING
STORMS...AND WHEN/WHERE STORMS REDEVELOP OVER NE MN AND NW WI.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRIER AND MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BORDERLAND.

A ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S EXPECTED.

ANOTHER LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SHIFT BACK INTO A FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE LESSENING MONDAY
NIGHT... IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  84  63  77 /  50  70  50  10
INL  68  84  59  74 /  50  60  50  30
BRD  70  87  60  79 /  80  60  10   0
HYR  69  85  62  78 /  40  70  50   0
ASX  66  87  64  79 /  20  60  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...MCLOVIN




000
FXUS63 KDLH 270552
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GETTING
SLOWLY PUSHED EAST BY OUR STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS DUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE OF LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES...AND
AGAIN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD COUNTY ON EAST. THIS
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT THE
AIRMASS TO BECOME CAPPED AND HOT WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT COOK...SOUTH THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. 700MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C OR HIGHER
WEST OF THAT LINE...IN SOME PLACES APPROACHING 10C TOWARDS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PRODUCING AN EFFECTIVE CAP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD AID IN PRODUCING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S ONCE
AGAIN...WITH EVEN A FEW VALUES IN THE LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS TO ALSO
BE INCREASING...SURGING INTO THE MID 60S WEST AND SOUTH...TO
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES FLIRTING
WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND HAVE PUT A MENTION OF THIS IN
THE HWO...AND WE MAY NEED TO DO A SHORT TERM ADVISORY FOR A FEW
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE TROF OVER BC THIS AFTERNOON
PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE...HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY ON TAP FOR TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE GREATEST THREAT.

RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HAS GENERALLY BEEN GOOD...RESULTING IN SEVERAL
CYCLES OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THE COMBINATION OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE HAS
CONSISTENTLY YIELDED HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER
90S. WHILE HEAT ADVISORIES DO NOT SEEM WARRANTED BASED ON THIS
PACKAGE...THEY MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF US HWY 2 DEPENDING ON HOW LONG
CLOUDS LINGER ON TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING/WEAKENING
STORMS...AND WHEN/WHERE STORMS REDEVELOP OVER NE MN AND NW WI.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRIER AND MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BORDERLAND.

A ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S EXPECTED.

ANOTHER LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SHIFT BACK INTO A FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE LESSENING MONDAY
NIGHT... IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  84  63  77 /  50  70  50  10
INL  68  84  59  74 /  50  60  50  30
BRD  70  87  60  79 /  80  60  10   0
HYR  69  85  62  78 /  40  70  50   0
ASX  66  87  64  79 /  20  60  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...MCLOVIN




000
FXUS63 KDLH 270552
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GETTING
SLOWLY PUSHED EAST BY OUR STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS DUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE OF LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES...AND
AGAIN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD COUNTY ON EAST. THIS
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT THE
AIRMASS TO BECOME CAPPED AND HOT WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT COOK...SOUTH THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. 700MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C OR HIGHER
WEST OF THAT LINE...IN SOME PLACES APPROACHING 10C TOWARDS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PRODUCING AN EFFECTIVE CAP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD AID IN PRODUCING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S ONCE
AGAIN...WITH EVEN A FEW VALUES IN THE LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS TO ALSO
BE INCREASING...SURGING INTO THE MID 60S WEST AND SOUTH...TO
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES FLIRTING
WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND HAVE PUT A MENTION OF THIS IN
THE HWO...AND WE MAY NEED TO DO A SHORT TERM ADVISORY FOR A FEW
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE TROF OVER BC THIS AFTERNOON
PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE...HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY ON TAP FOR TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE GREATEST THREAT.

RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HAS GENERALLY BEEN GOOD...RESULTING IN SEVERAL
CYCLES OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THE COMBINATION OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE HAS
CONSISTENTLY YIELDED HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER
90S. WHILE HEAT ADVISORIES DO NOT SEEM WARRANTED BASED ON THIS
PACKAGE...THEY MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF US HWY 2 DEPENDING ON HOW LONG
CLOUDS LINGER ON TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING/WEAKENING
STORMS...AND WHEN/WHERE STORMS REDEVELOP OVER NE MN AND NW WI.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRIER AND MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BORDERLAND.

A ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S EXPECTED.

ANOTHER LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SHIFT BACK INTO A FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE LESSENING MONDAY
NIGHT... IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  84  63  77 /  50  70  50  10
INL  68  84  59  74 /  50  60  50  30
BRD  70  87  60  79 /  80  60  10   0
HYR  69  85  62  78 /  40  70  50   0
ASX  66  87  64  79 /  20  60  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...MCLOVIN





000
FXUS63 KDLH 270552
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1252 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. A WEAK RIDGE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE GETTING
SLOWLY PUSHED EAST BY OUR STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS DUE
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE OF LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES...AND
AGAIN ALONG THE SOUTH SHORE OF BAYFIELD COUNTY ON EAST. THIS
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW...BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT THE
AIRMASS TO BECOME CAPPED AND HOT WITH NO THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A
LINE FROM ABOUT COOK...SOUTH THROUGH THE TWIN PORTS AND THE
INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR. 700MB TEMPERATURES RISE TO 8C OR HIGHER
WEST OF THAT LINE...IN SOME PLACES APPROACHING 10C TOWARDS THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...PRODUCING AN EFFECTIVE CAP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS. FULL SUNSHINE SHOULD AID IN PRODUCING VERY WARM
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 80S ONCE
AGAIN...WITH EVEN A FEW VALUES IN THE LOW 90S. DEWPOINTS TO ALSO
BE INCREASING...SURGING INTO THE MID 60S WEST AND SOUTH...TO
AROUND 60 NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES FLIRTING
WITH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...AND HAVE PUT A MENTION OF THIS IN
THE HWO...AND WE MAY NEED TO DO A SHORT TERM ADVISORY FOR A FEW
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 451 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AS THE LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
CENTRAL CONUS SHIFTS EASTWARD AND THE TROF OVER BC THIS AFTERNOON
PUSHES EASTWARD INTO THE PLAINS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COOL FRONT AND WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST
MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. SOME OF THE STORMS
WILL BE STRONG AND WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AVAILABLE...HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER HOT AND MUGGY DAY ON TAP FOR TUESDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL THE GREATEST THREAT.

RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH REGARD TO TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON HAS GENERALLY BEEN GOOD...RESULTING IN SEVERAL
CYCLES OF MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S. THE COMBINATION OF WARMTH AND MOISTURE HAS
CONSISTENTLY YIELDED HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE UPPER 80S TO UPPER
90S. WHILE HEAT ADVISORIES DO NOT SEEM WARRANTED BASED ON THIS
PACKAGE...THEY MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF US HWY 2 DEPENDING ON HOW LONG
CLOUDS LINGER ON TUESDAY MORNING BEHIND THE DEPARTING/WEAKENING
STORMS...AND WHEN/WHERE STORMS REDEVELOP OVER NE MN AND NW WI.

THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRIER AND MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL INCREASE MARKEDLY DURING THE
DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHERE WINDS AND WAVES WILL
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA. AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES OVER
NORTHWEST ONTARIO...COOL AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED
SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE BORDERLAND.

A ZONAL FLOW TAKES SHAPE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. A PERIOD OF QUIETER WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE MIDDLE 70S TO MIDDLE 80S EXPECTED.

ANOTHER LONGWAVE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN CONUS
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY RESULTING IN A SHIFT BACK INTO A FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL PIECES
OF ENERGY WILL TRAVERSE THE RIDGE AND MOVE THROUGH THE REGION
BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1252 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT 24 HOURS... WITH
ANOTHER CHANCE OF OCCASIONAL PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE LESSENING MONDAY
NIGHT... IN ADVANCE OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  68  84  63  77 /  50  70  50  10
INL  68  84  59  74 /  50  60  50  30
BRD  70  87  60  79 /  80  60  10   0
HYR  69  85  62  78 /  40  70  50   0
ASX  66  87  64  79 /  20  60  60  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LE
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...MCLOVIN





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