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000
FXUS63 KDLH 301144
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ONE THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF SMOKE OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND MONDAY AND HOW THAT IMPACTS TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND PASS TO THE
EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG WERE EXPANDING
THIS MORNING AND THE RAP/HRRR BOTH SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...THEN THINNING BY 18Z. A LOOK AT YESTERDAYS VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED PLENTY OF SMOKE OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT WE WILL SEE ENOUGH
SMOKE TO LIMIT SUNSHINE TODAY. WE TRIMMED HIGHS A BIT TODAY THINKING
THE SMOKE WILL BE PRESENT AND WE ALSO BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER SINCE
SMOKE WILL GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS. IF THE SMOKE IS
THINNER THAN EXPECTED...HIGHS WILL HAVE TO BE BUMPED BACK UP. WE
HAVE HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO MIDDLE EIGHTIES.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
SOME SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT. WE HAVE HIGHS FROM 80 TO 85
FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER WITH CHANCES FOR
AN ISOLATED STORM MOST DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. STORM CHANCES
EACH DAY ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE WEST
WHILE A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST...RESULTING IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PLACE THE
REGION WITHIN THE STORM TRACK FOR A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FOLLOWING THIS
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED THURS/FRI AFTERNOON UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FROM WEST TO EAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTH...WITH A VERY HUMID WARM SECTOR IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS
RISE TO NEAR 70. STORMS THIS WEEKEND COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DUE TO FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
WILL AIDE IN INSTABILITY AND STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS LEADING
TO BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION THIS IN
THE HWO JUST YET...BUT SHOULD THE RIGHT FACTORS ALIGN THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY.

HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT FOR 70S BY LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S ON NIGHTS WHEN SKIES CLEAR...OTHERWISE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE SOUTH...BECOMING
GUSTY ON THURSDAY FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIFR/IFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...CLEARING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MID-MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR...AND WHILE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
INCLUDING SCATTERED 25KFT IN TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED SMOKE ALOFT DUE
TO ONGOING WILDFIRES OUT WEST. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH...PERHAPS A
BIT GUSTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AT DLH BUT OTHERWISE LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...MOST CONFIDENT AT
HYR/BRD/DLH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  64  84  64 /   0  10  10  30
INL  85  64  84  55 /   0  10  20  20
BRD  83  65  85  60 /   0  10  10  20
HYR  80  62  83  65 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  84  63  86  65 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM





000
FXUS63 KDLH 301144
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ONE THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF SMOKE OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND MONDAY AND HOW THAT IMPACTS TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND PASS TO THE
EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG WERE EXPANDING
THIS MORNING AND THE RAP/HRRR BOTH SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...THEN THINNING BY 18Z. A LOOK AT YESTERDAYS VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED PLENTY OF SMOKE OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT WE WILL SEE ENOUGH
SMOKE TO LIMIT SUNSHINE TODAY. WE TRIMMED HIGHS A BIT TODAY THINKING
THE SMOKE WILL BE PRESENT AND WE ALSO BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER SINCE
SMOKE WILL GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS. IF THE SMOKE IS
THINNER THAN EXPECTED...HIGHS WILL HAVE TO BE BUMPED BACK UP. WE
HAVE HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO MIDDLE EIGHTIES.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
SOME SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT. WE HAVE HIGHS FROM 80 TO 85
FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER WITH CHANCES FOR
AN ISOLATED STORM MOST DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. STORM CHANCES
EACH DAY ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE WEST
WHILE A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST...RESULTING IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PLACE THE
REGION WITHIN THE STORM TRACK FOR A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FOLLOWING THIS
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED THURS/FRI AFTERNOON UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FROM WEST TO EAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTH...WITH A VERY HUMID WARM SECTOR IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS
RISE TO NEAR 70. STORMS THIS WEEKEND COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DUE TO FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
WILL AIDE IN INSTABILITY AND STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS LEADING
TO BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION THIS IN
THE HWO JUST YET...BUT SHOULD THE RIGHT FACTORS ALIGN THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY.

HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT FOR 70S BY LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S ON NIGHTS WHEN SKIES CLEAR...OTHERWISE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE SOUTH...BECOMING
GUSTY ON THURSDAY FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 645 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

LIFR/IFR CEILINGS THROUGH ABOUT 15Z THIS MORNING...CLEARING FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH MID-MORNING. THIS AFTERNOON CONDITIONS WILL BE
VFR...AND WHILE NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER
INCLUDING SCATTERED 25KFT IN TAFS DUE TO EXPECTED SMOKE ALOFT DUE
TO ONGOING WILDFIRES OUT WEST. WINDS OUT OF THE SOUTH...PERHAPS A
BIT GUSTY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AT DLH BUT OTHERWISE LIGHT
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. EXPECTING ANOTHER ROUND OF IFR/LIFR
CEILINGS AND PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT...MOST CONFIDENT AT
HYR/BRD/DLH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  64  84  64 /   0  10  10  30
INL  85  64  84  55 /   0  10  20  20
BRD  83  65  85  60 /   0  10  10  20
HYR  80  62  83  65 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  84  63  86  65 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 300800
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ONE THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF SMOKE OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND MONDAY AND HOW THAT IMPACTS TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND PASS TO THE
EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG WERE EXPANDING
THIS MORNING AND THE RAP/HRRR BOTH SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...THEN THINNING BY 18Z. A LOOK AT YESTERDAYS VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED PLENTY OF SMOKE OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT WE WILL SEE ENOUGH
SMOKE TO LIMIT SUNSHINE TODAY. WE TRIMMED HIGHS A BIT TODAY THINKING
THE SMOKE WILL BE PRESENT AND WE ALSO BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER SINCE
SMOKE WILL GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS. IF THE SMOKE IS
THINNER THAN EXPECTED...HIGHS WILL HAVE TO BE BUMPED BACK UP. WE
HAVE HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO MIDDLE EIGHTIES.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
SOME SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT. WE HAVE HIGHS FROM 80 TO 85
FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER WITH CHANCES FOR
AN ISOLATED STORM MOST DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. STORM CHANCES
EACH DAY ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE WEST
WHILE A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST...RESULTING IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PLACE THE
REGION WITHIN THE STORM TRACK FOR A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FOLLOWING THIS
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED THURS/FRI AFTERNOON UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FROM WEST TO EAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTH...WITH A VERY HUMID WARM SECTOR IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS
RISE TO NEAR 70. STORMS THIS WEEKEND COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DUE TO FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
WILL AIDE IN INSTABILITY AND STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS LEADING
TO BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION THIS IN
THE HWO JUST YET...BUT SHOULD THE RIGHT FACTORS ALIGN THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY.

HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT FOR 70S BY LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S ON NIGHTS WHEN SKIES CLEAR...OTHERWISE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE SOUTH...BECOMING
GUSTY ON THURSDAY FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MOISTURE WILL RACE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT...AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL HIT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THE
HARDEST...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR KHIB AND KINL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  64  84  64 /   0  10  10  30
INL  85  64  84  55 /   0  10  20  20
BRD  83  65  85  60 /   0  10  10  20
HYR  80  62  83  65 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  84  63  86  65 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 300800
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ONE THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF SMOKE OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND MONDAY AND HOW THAT IMPACTS TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND PASS TO THE
EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG WERE EXPANDING
THIS MORNING AND THE RAP/HRRR BOTH SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...THEN THINNING BY 18Z. A LOOK AT YESTERDAYS VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED PLENTY OF SMOKE OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT WE WILL SEE ENOUGH
SMOKE TO LIMIT SUNSHINE TODAY. WE TRIMMED HIGHS A BIT TODAY THINKING
THE SMOKE WILL BE PRESENT AND WE ALSO BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER SINCE
SMOKE WILL GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS. IF THE SMOKE IS
THINNER THAN EXPECTED...HIGHS WILL HAVE TO BE BUMPED BACK UP. WE
HAVE HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO MIDDLE EIGHTIES.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
SOME SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT. WE HAVE HIGHS FROM 80 TO 85
FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER WITH CHANCES FOR
AN ISOLATED STORM MOST DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. STORM CHANCES
EACH DAY ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE WEST
WHILE A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST...RESULTING IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PLACE THE
REGION WITHIN THE STORM TRACK FOR A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FOLLOWING THIS
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED THURS/FRI AFTERNOON UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FROM WEST TO EAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTH...WITH A VERY HUMID WARM SECTOR IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS
RISE TO NEAR 70. STORMS THIS WEEKEND COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DUE TO FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
WILL AIDE IN INSTABILITY AND STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS LEADING
TO BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION THIS IN
THE HWO JUST YET...BUT SHOULD THE RIGHT FACTORS ALIGN THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY.

HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT FOR 70S BY LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S ON NIGHTS WHEN SKIES CLEAR...OTHERWISE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE SOUTH...BECOMING
GUSTY ON THURSDAY FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MOISTURE WILL RACE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT...AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL HIT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THE
HARDEST...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR KHIB AND KINL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  64  84  64 /   0  10  10  30
INL  85  64  84  55 /   0  10  20  20
BRD  83  65  85  60 /   0  10  10  20
HYR  80  62  83  65 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  84  63  86  65 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 300800
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ONE THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF SMOKE OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND MONDAY AND HOW THAT IMPACTS TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND PASS TO THE
EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG WERE EXPANDING
THIS MORNING AND THE RAP/HRRR BOTH SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...THEN THINNING BY 18Z. A LOOK AT YESTERDAYS VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED PLENTY OF SMOKE OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT WE WILL SEE ENOUGH
SMOKE TO LIMIT SUNSHINE TODAY. WE TRIMMED HIGHS A BIT TODAY THINKING
THE SMOKE WILL BE PRESENT AND WE ALSO BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER SINCE
SMOKE WILL GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS. IF THE SMOKE IS
THINNER THAN EXPECTED...HIGHS WILL HAVE TO BE BUMPED BACK UP. WE
HAVE HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO MIDDLE EIGHTIES.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
SOME SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT. WE HAVE HIGHS FROM 80 TO 85
FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER WITH CHANCES FOR
AN ISOLATED STORM MOST DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. STORM CHANCES
EACH DAY ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE WEST
WHILE A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST...RESULTING IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PLACE THE
REGION WITHIN THE STORM TRACK FOR A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FOLLOWING THIS
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED THURS/FRI AFTERNOON UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FROM WEST TO EAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTH...WITH A VERY HUMID WARM SECTOR IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS
RISE TO NEAR 70. STORMS THIS WEEKEND COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DUE TO FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
WILL AIDE IN INSTABILITY AND STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS LEADING
TO BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION THIS IN
THE HWO JUST YET...BUT SHOULD THE RIGHT FACTORS ALIGN THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY.

HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT FOR 70S BY LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S ON NIGHTS WHEN SKIES CLEAR...OTHERWISE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE SOUTH...BECOMING
GUSTY ON THURSDAY FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MOISTURE WILL RACE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT...AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL HIT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THE
HARDEST...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR KHIB AND KINL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  64  84  64 /   0  10  10  30
INL  85  64  84  55 /   0  10  20  20
BRD  83  65  85  60 /   0  10  10  20
HYR  80  62  83  65 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  84  63  86  65 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 300800
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
300 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

ONE THE SHORT TERM CONCERNS WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF SMOKE OVER THE
REGION TODAY AND MONDAY AND HOW THAT IMPACTS TEMPERATURES. A WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE INTO WESTERN MINNESOTA MONDAY AFTERNOON
BRINGING A THREAT FOR SHOWERS/STORMS TO OUR WESTERN ZONES.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHLAND TODAY AND PASS TO THE
EAST TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. STRATUS AND FOG WERE EXPANDING
THIS MORNING AND THE RAP/HRRR BOTH SHOW THIS TREND CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT...THEN THINNING BY 18Z. A LOOK AT YESTERDAYS VISIBLE
SATELLITE SHOWED PLENTY OF SMOKE OVER THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
INTO PORTIONS OF MINNESOTA. WE ARE CONCERNED THAT WE WILL SEE ENOUGH
SMOKE TO LIMIT SUNSHINE TODAY. WE TRIMMED HIGHS A BIT TODAY THINKING
THE SMOKE WILL BE PRESENT AND WE ALSO BEEFED UP CLOUD COVER SINCE
SMOKE WILL GIVE THE APPEARANCE OF HIGH CLOUDS. IF THE SMOKE IS
THINNER THAN EXPECTED...HIGHS WILL HAVE TO BE BUMPED BACK UP. WE
HAVE HIGHS TODAY FROM THE UPPER SEVENTIES TO MIDDLE EIGHTIES.

WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...AND
SOME SMOKE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRESENT. WE HAVE HIGHS FROM 80 TO 85
FOR MOST AREAS. THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS/STORMS OVER WESTERN AREAS OF THE NORTHLAND.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 257 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

WARM AND HUMID THROUGH THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER WITH CHANCES FOR
AN ISOLATED STORM MOST DAYS. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH ABOVE NORMAL CONFIDENCE IN THE OVERALL PATTERN. STORM CHANCES
EACH DAY ARE FAIRLY LOW...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH FROM WEST TO EAST.

ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN IN THE WEST
WHILE A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE EAST...RESULTING IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL PLACE THE
REGION WITHIN THE STORM TRACK FOR A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES
THROUGH THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND FOLLOWING THIS
STORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY BE LIMITED THURS/FRI AFTERNOON UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
FROM WEST TO EAST. AHEAD OF THE FRONT WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OUT OF
THE SOUTH...WITH A VERY HUMID WARM SECTOR IN PLACE AS DEW POINTS
RISE TO NEAR 70. STORMS THIS WEEKEND COULD HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE
STRONG TO SEVERE DUE TO FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WHICH
WILL AIDE IN INSTABILITY AND STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WINDS LEADING
TO BETTER DEEP LAYER SHEAR. NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO MENTION THIS IN
THE HWO JUST YET...BUT SHOULD THE RIGHT FACTORS ALIGN THIS IS A
POSSIBILITY.

HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT FOR 70S BY LAKE SUPERIOR. LOWS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW
60S ON NIGHTS WHEN SKIES CLEAR...OTHERWISE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S
DUE TO CLOUD COVER. WINDS PREDOMINATELY OUT OF THE SOUTH...BECOMING
GUSTY ON THURSDAY FRIDAY AND EVEN SATURDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MOISTURE WILL RACE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT...AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL HIT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THE
HARDEST...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR KHIB AND KINL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  81  64  84  64 /   0  10  10  30
INL  85  64  84  55 /   0  10  20  20
BRD  83  65  85  60 /   0  10  10  20
HYR  80  62  83  65 /   0   0   0  20
ASX  84  63  86  65 /   0   0   0  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 300533
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING RID OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. LOOKS LIKE A UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER HAS BEEN
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE..KEEPING CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHLAND. BY SUNDAY MORNING WE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY CLEARING THE
CLOUDS AS THE UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER. THERE WILL LIKELY B
MORNING CLOUDS...SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
HELP CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT...THEN VERY WARM TO HOT TOMORROW.
AND THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN MORE HUMID AIR WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE RIDGE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE REGION.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.  ALSO...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR INTO THE FORECAST REGION.  THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.   A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION VERSUS SCATTERED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MOISTURE WILL RACE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT...AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL HIT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THE
HARDEST...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR KHIB AND KINL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  84  64  82 /   0   0  30  20
INL  63  84  60  82 /  10  20  30  10
BRD  65  85  64  85 /  10  10  30  20
HYR  62  84  65  83 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  62  84  65  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 300533
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1233 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING RID OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. LOOKS LIKE A UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER HAS BEEN
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE..KEEPING CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHLAND. BY SUNDAY MORNING WE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY CLEARING THE
CLOUDS AS THE UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER. THERE WILL LIKELY B
MORNING CLOUDS...SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
HELP CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT...THEN VERY WARM TO HOT TOMORROW.
AND THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN MORE HUMID AIR WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE RIDGE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE REGION.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.  ALSO...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR INTO THE FORECAST REGION.  THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.   A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION VERSUS SCATTERED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1232 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MOISTURE WILL RACE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT...AS A SOUTHERLY LLJ DEVELOPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PORTION
OF THE COUNTRY. THE HRRR AND RAP CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG WILL HIT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THE
HARDEST...WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A
BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE FOR KHIB AND KINL.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  63  84  64  82 /   0   0  30  20
INL  63  84  60  82 /  10  20  30  10
BRD  65  85  64  85 /  10  10  30  20
HYR  62  84  65  83 /   0   0  10  20
ASX  62  84  65  84 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...DAP




000
FXUS63 KDLH 292348
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
648 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING RID OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. LOOKS LIKE A UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER HAS BEEN
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE..KEEPING CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHLAND. BY SUNDAY MORNING WE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY CLEARING THE
CLOUDS AS THE UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER. THERE WILL LIKELY B
MORNING CLOUDS...SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
HELP CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT...THEN VERY WARM TO HOT TOMORROW.
AND THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN MORE HUMID AIR WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE RIDGE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE REGION.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.  ALSO...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR INTO THE FORECAST REGION.  THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.   A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION VERSUS SCATTERED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A GOOD DEAL OF HIGH AND MID CLOUDS...ALONG WITH AN INCREASING
LAYER OF SMOKE ALOFT...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHLAND
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. THE HIGH RES MODELS ARE ALSO HINTING AT
LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS APPEAR TO BE IN THE SOUTH...FROM
KBRD TO KDLH AND ESPECIALLY KHYR...AS MOISTURE ADVECTS NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  84  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
INL  62  90  63  84 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  62  86  65  85 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  59  82  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  59  85  62  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...DAP





000
FXUS63 KDLH 292029
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
329 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING RID OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. LOOKS LIKE A UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER HAS BEEN
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE..KEEPING CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHLAND. BY SUNDAY MORNING WE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY CLEARING THE
CLOUDS AS THE UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER. THERE WILL LIKELY B
MORNING CLOUDS...SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
HELP CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT...THEN VERY WARM TO HOT TOMORROW.
AND THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN MORE HUMID AIR WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE RIDGE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE REGION.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.  ALSO...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR INTO THE FORECAST REGION.  THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.   A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION VERSUS SCATTERED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR WITH SOME IFR CIGS AT INL/HIB/DLH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR AT THE OTHER SITES. CONDITITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT
ALL SITES TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  84  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
INL  62  90  63  84 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  62  86  65  85 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  59  82  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  59  85  62  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...STEWART




000
FXUS63 KDLH 292029
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
329 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING RID OF THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TODAY. LOOKS LIKE A UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY CENTER HAS BEEN
ROTATING THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE..KEEPING CLOUDS OVER THE
NORTHLAND. BY SUNDAY MORNING WE SHOULD BE GRADUALLY CLEARING THE
CLOUDS AS THE UPPER RIDGING TAKES OVER. THERE WILL LIKELY B
MORNING CLOUDS...SIMILAR TO TODAY...BUT MIXING AND SUBSIDENCE SHOULD
HELP CLEAR OUT THE CLOUDS. VERY STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM OVERNIGHT...THEN VERY WARM TO HOT TOMORROW.
AND THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALSO BRING IN MORE HUMID AIR WITH
DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

THE RIDGE PULLS OFF TO THE EAST AS SKIES WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY
ACROSS THE REGION.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP UNDER A LONGWAVE
TROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE SLOWLY THROUGH NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS
AND GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING.  ALSO...A
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL PUSH WARMER AND MORE HUMID
AIR INTO THE FORECAST REGION.  THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP
CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A WEAK AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.   A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH
INTO THE FORECAST AREA LATER WEDNESDAY KEEPING THE WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL PASS THROUGH THE
REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING KEEPING THE CHANCE OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY BRINGING WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION VERSUS SCATTERED EARLIER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR WITH SOME IFR CIGS AT INL/HIB/DLH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR AT THE OTHER SITES. CONDITITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT
ALL SITES TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  84  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
INL  62  90  63  84 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  62  86  65  85 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  59  82  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  59  85  62  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...MRS
AVIATION...STEWART





000
FXUS63 KDLH 291848
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
148 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THROUGH
ARROWHEAD TOWARD NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
AREA AS WELL. MUCH OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB
DEPICTING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THEY HAVE SUGGESTED THE
CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH QUICKER THAN WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED SO
FAR. WE ARE FINALLY SEEING SIGNS OF THE STORMS WEAKENING...AND WE
THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO MORE STABLE
AIR AND THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. WE DID CARRY A
CHANCE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF MINNESOTA THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
DRY. WE EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND EIGHTY.

RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY
EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 90. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES
TODAY AND SUNDAY MAKING IT FEEL MUGGY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK LEADING
TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH...AND WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST LOCALLY MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT BY LAKE SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS BUT GENERALLY LOW EACH DAY.
WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE AND STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. AM A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC ON THE STORM
CHANCES...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED THERMODYNAMICS CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCES
MOST DAYS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...AND
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA COULD MOVE INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THOUGH
ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK. LATE IN THE
WEEK...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

IN CONCLUSION...THE MILD SUMMER OF 2015 CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...PERHAPS WITH A BIT MORE HUMIDITY THAN MOST WOULD
LIKE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TO NEAR 70. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
STORMS EACH DAY...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR WITH SOME IFR CIGS AT INL/HIB/DLH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR AT THE OTHER SITES. CONDTIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
SITES TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  84  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
INL  62  90  63  84 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  62  86  65  85 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  59  82  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  59  85  62  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...STEWART




000
FXUS63 KDLH 291848
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
148 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THROUGH
ARROWHEAD TOWARD NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
AREA AS WELL. MUCH OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB
DEPICTING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THEY HAVE SUGGESTED THE
CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH QUICKER THAN WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED SO
FAR. WE ARE FINALLY SEEING SIGNS OF THE STORMS WEAKENING...AND WE
THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO MORE STABLE
AIR AND THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. WE DID CARRY A
CHANCE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF MINNESOTA THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
DRY. WE EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND EIGHTY.

RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY
EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 90. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES
TODAY AND SUNDAY MAKING IT FEEL MUGGY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK LEADING
TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH...AND WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST LOCALLY MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT BY LAKE SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS BUT GENERALLY LOW EACH DAY.
WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE AND STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. AM A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC ON THE STORM
CHANCES...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED THERMODYNAMICS CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCES
MOST DAYS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...AND
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA COULD MOVE INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THOUGH
ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK. LATE IN THE
WEEK...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

IN CONCLUSION...THE MILD SUMMER OF 2015 CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...PERHAPS WITH A BIT MORE HUMIDITY THAN MOST WOULD
LIKE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TO NEAR 70. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
STORMS EACH DAY...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR WITH SOME IFR CIGS AT INL/HIB/DLH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR AT THE OTHER SITES. CONDTIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
SITES TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  84  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
INL  62  90  63  84 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  62  86  65  85 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  59  82  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  59  85  62  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...STEWART





000
FXUS63 KDLH 291848
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
148 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THROUGH
ARROWHEAD TOWARD NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
AREA AS WELL. MUCH OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB
DEPICTING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THEY HAVE SUGGESTED THE
CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH QUICKER THAN WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED SO
FAR. WE ARE FINALLY SEEING SIGNS OF THE STORMS WEAKENING...AND WE
THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO MORE STABLE
AIR AND THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. WE DID CARRY A
CHANCE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF MINNESOTA THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
DRY. WE EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND EIGHTY.

RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY
EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 90. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES
TODAY AND SUNDAY MAKING IT FEEL MUGGY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK LEADING
TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH...AND WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST LOCALLY MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT BY LAKE SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS BUT GENERALLY LOW EACH DAY.
WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE AND STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. AM A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC ON THE STORM
CHANCES...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED THERMODYNAMICS CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCES
MOST DAYS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...AND
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA COULD MOVE INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THOUGH
ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK. LATE IN THE
WEEK...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

IN CONCLUSION...THE MILD SUMMER OF 2015 CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...PERHAPS WITH A BIT MORE HUMIDITY THAN MOST WOULD
LIKE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TO NEAR 70. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
STORMS EACH DAY...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 146 PM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

MVFR WITH SOME IFR CIGS AT INL/HIB/DLH TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR AT THE OTHER SITES. CONDTIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AT ALL
SITES TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  62  84  63  84 /   0   0   0   0
INL  62  90  63  84 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  62  86  65  85 /   0   0  10  10
HYR  59  82  62  84 /   0   0   0   0
ASX  59  85  62  84 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...STEWART




000
FXUS63 KDLH 291138
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THROUGH
ARROWHEAD TOWARD NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
AREA AS WELL. MUCH OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB
DEPICTING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THEY HAVE SUGGESTED THE
CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH QUICKER THAN WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED SO
FAR. WE ARE FINALLY SEEING SIGNS OF THE STORMS WEAKENING...AND WE
THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO MORE STABLE
AIR AND THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. WE DID CARRY A
CHANCE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF MINNESOTA THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
DRY. WE EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND EIGHTY.

RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY
EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 90. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES
TODAY AND SUNDAY MAKING IT FEEL MUGGY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK LEADING
TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH...AND WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST LOCALLY MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT BY LAKE SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS BUT GENERALLY LOW EACH DAY.
WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE AND STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. AM A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC ON THE STORM
CHANCES...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED THERMODYNAMICS CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCES
MOST DAYS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...AND
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA COULD MOVE INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THOUGH
ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK. LATE IN THE
WEEK...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

IN CONCLUSION...THE MILD SUMMER OF 2015 CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...PERHAPS WITH A BIT MORE HUMIDITY THAN MOST WOULD
LIKE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TO NEAR 70. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
STORMS EACH DAY...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FOLLOWING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT TO BECOME VFR FOR THE DAY WITH JUST SCATTERED/BROKEN
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10-15KFT AGL. WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. HAVE
SOME CONCERNS FOR FOG/STRATUS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING AT
HAYWARD...AND FOR NOW OPTED MVFR VISIBILITY IN THE TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  62  84  63 /  10   0   0   0
INL  81  62  90  63 /  10   0   0  10
BRD  82  62  86  65 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  76  59  82  62 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  79  59  85  62 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM





000
FXUS63 KDLH 291138
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
638 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THROUGH
ARROWHEAD TOWARD NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
AREA AS WELL. MUCH OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB
DEPICTING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THEY HAVE SUGGESTED THE
CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH QUICKER THAN WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED SO
FAR. WE ARE FINALLY SEEING SIGNS OF THE STORMS WEAKENING...AND WE
THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO MORE STABLE
AIR AND THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. WE DID CARRY A
CHANCE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF MINNESOTA THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
DRY. WE EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND EIGHTY.

RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY
EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 90. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES
TODAY AND SUNDAY MAKING IT FEEL MUGGY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK LEADING
TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH...AND WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST LOCALLY MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT BY LAKE SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS BUT GENERALLY LOW EACH DAY.
WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE AND STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. AM A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC ON THE STORM
CHANCES...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED THERMODYNAMICS CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCES
MOST DAYS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...AND
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA COULD MOVE INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THOUGH
ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK. LATE IN THE
WEEK...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

IN CONCLUSION...THE MILD SUMMER OF 2015 CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...PERHAPS WITH A BIT MORE HUMIDITY THAN MOST WOULD
LIKE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TO NEAR 70. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
STORMS EACH DAY...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

FOLLOWING A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CEILINGS THIS MORNING SKIES WILL
CLEAR OUT TO BECOME VFR FOR THE DAY WITH JUST SCATTERED/BROKEN
UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 10-15KFT AGL. WINDS LIGHT THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD OUT OF THE SOUTH AT GENERALLY LESS THAN 10 KTS. HAVE
SOME CONCERNS FOR FOG/STRATUS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING AT
HAYWARD...AND FOR NOW OPTED MVFR VISIBILITY IN THE TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  62  84  63 /  10   0   0   0
INL  81  62  90  63 /  10   0   0  10
BRD  82  62  86  65 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  76  59  82  62 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  79  59  85  62 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 290903
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THROUGH
ARROWHEAD TOWARD NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
AREA AS WELL. MUCH OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB
DEPICTING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THEY HAVE SUGGESTED THE
CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH QUICKER THAN WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED SO
FAR. WE ARE FINALLY SEEING SIGNS OF THE STORMS WEAKENING...AND WE
THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO MORE STABLE
AIR AND THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. WE DID CARRY A
CHANCE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF MINNESOTA THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
DRY. WE EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND EIGHTY.

RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY
EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 90. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES
TODAY AND SUNDAY MAKING IT FEEL MUGGY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK LEADING
TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH...AND WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST LOCALLY MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT BY LAKE SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS BUT GENERALLY LOW EACH DAY.
WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE AND STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. AM A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC ON THE STORM
CHANCES...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED THERMODYNAMICS CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCES
MOST DAYS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...AND
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA COULD MOVE INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THOUGH
ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK. LATE IN THE
WEEK...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

IN CONCLUSION...THE MILD SUMMER OF 2015 CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...PERHAPS WITH A BIT MORE HUMIDITY THAN MOST WOULD
LIKE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TO NEAR 70. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
STORMS EACH DAY...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AT INL...THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE SITE THROUGH 08Z WITH MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT...THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH MVFR FOG EXPECTED AROUND 09Z TO 12Z.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...IT WILL BE VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  62  84  63 /  30   0   0   0
INL  81  62  90  63 /  10   0   0  10
BRD  82  62  86  65 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  76  59  82  62 /  30   0   0   0
ASX  79  59  85  62 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM





000
FXUS63 KDLH 290903
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THROUGH
ARROWHEAD TOWARD NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
AREA AS WELL. MUCH OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB
DEPICTING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THEY HAVE SUGGESTED THE
CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH QUICKER THAN WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED SO
FAR. WE ARE FINALLY SEEING SIGNS OF THE STORMS WEAKENING...AND WE
THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO MORE STABLE
AIR AND THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. WE DID CARRY A
CHANCE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF MINNESOTA THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
DRY. WE EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND EIGHTY.

RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY
EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 90. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES
TODAY AND SUNDAY MAKING IT FEEL MUGGY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK LEADING
TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH...AND WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST LOCALLY MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT BY LAKE SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS BUT GENERALLY LOW EACH DAY.
WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE AND STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. AM A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC ON THE STORM
CHANCES...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED THERMODYNAMICS CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCES
MOST DAYS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...AND
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA COULD MOVE INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THOUGH
ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK. LATE IN THE
WEEK...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

IN CONCLUSION...THE MILD SUMMER OF 2015 CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...PERHAPS WITH A BIT MORE HUMIDITY THAN MOST WOULD
LIKE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TO NEAR 70. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
STORMS EACH DAY...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AT INL...THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE SITE THROUGH 08Z WITH MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT...THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH MVFR FOG EXPECTED AROUND 09Z TO 12Z.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...IT WILL BE VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  62  84  63 /  30   0   0   0
INL  81  62  90  63 /  10   0   0  10
BRD  82  62  86  65 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  76  59  82  62 /  30   0   0   0
ASX  79  59  85  62 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 290903
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THROUGH
ARROWHEAD TOWARD NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
AREA AS WELL. MUCH OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB
DEPICTING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THEY HAVE SUGGESTED THE
CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH QUICKER THAN WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED SO
FAR. WE ARE FINALLY SEEING SIGNS OF THE STORMS WEAKENING...AND WE
THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO MORE STABLE
AIR AND THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. WE DID CARRY A
CHANCE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF MINNESOTA THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
DRY. WE EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND EIGHTY.

RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY
EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 90. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES
TODAY AND SUNDAY MAKING IT FEEL MUGGY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK LEADING
TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH...AND WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST LOCALLY MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT BY LAKE SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS BUT GENERALLY LOW EACH DAY.
WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE AND STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. AM A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC ON THE STORM
CHANCES...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED THERMODYNAMICS CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCES
MOST DAYS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...AND
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA COULD MOVE INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THOUGH
ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK. LATE IN THE
WEEK...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

IN CONCLUSION...THE MILD SUMMER OF 2015 CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...PERHAPS WITH A BIT MORE HUMIDITY THAN MOST WOULD
LIKE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TO NEAR 70. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
STORMS EACH DAY...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AT INL...THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE SITE THROUGH 08Z WITH MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT...THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH MVFR FOG EXPECTED AROUND 09Z TO 12Z.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...IT WILL BE VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  62  84  63 /  30   0   0   0
INL  81  62  90  63 /  10   0   0  10
BRD  82  62  86  65 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  76  59  82  62 /  30   0   0   0
ASX  79  59  85  62 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM





000
FXUS63 KDLH 290903
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
403 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THROUGH
ARROWHEAD TOWARD NORTHERN WISCONSIN EARLY THIS MORNING. A FEW
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHERN WISCONSIN AHEAD OF THIS MAIN
AREA AS WELL. MUCH OF THE HIGHER RES MODELS HAVE DONE A POOR JOB
DEPICTING THE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. THEY HAVE SUGGESTED THE
CONVECTION WOULD DIMINISH QUICKER THAN WHAT WE HAVE OBSERVED SO
FAR. WE ARE FINALLY SEEING SIGNS OF THE STORMS WEAKENING...AND WE
THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO MORE STABLE
AIR AND THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. WE DID CARRY A
CHANCE THIS MORNING OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN INTO
ADJACENT AREAS OF MINNESOTA THROUGH ABOUT 14Z.

WEAK UPPER RIDGING WILL MOVE IN TODAY AND THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD BE
DRY. WE EXPECT HIGHS FROM THE MID SEVENTIES TO AROUND EIGHTY.

RIDGING ALOFT SHOULD KEEP THE NORTHLAND DRY TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL DRAW WARMER AIR INTO THE NORTHLAND
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG TONIGHT...MAINLY
EASTERN AREAS WHERE THE LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WEAKER. HIGHS
SUNDAY WILL RANGE FROM 80 TO 90. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE SIXTIES
TODAY AND SUNDAY MAKING IT FEEL MUGGY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE WEST COAST THIS WEEK LEADING
TO INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID/UPPER LEVELS IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST. A LEE CYCLONE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS IN
RESPONSE TO THIS TROUGH...AND WITH A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST LOCALLY MID TO LATE WEEK...WITH GUSTY WINDS OUT OF THE
SOUTH POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE LOW. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID
80S...EXCEPT BY LAKE SUPERIOR AND ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTH SHORE.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXIST MOST DAYS BUT GENERALLY LOW EACH DAY.
WITH A WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS DEVELOPING AT THE SURFACE AND STEEPER
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ALOFT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION EACH DAY. AM A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC ON THE STORM
CHANCES...BUT GIVEN EXPECTED THERMODYNAMICS CANNOT RULE OUT CHANCES
MOST DAYS. MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST ONTARIO...AND
SHOWERS/STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA COULD MOVE INTO
NORTH-CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST MINNESOTA OVERNIGHT. ON WEDNESDAY A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA...THOUGH
ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS FAIRLY WEAK. LATE IN THE
WEEK...FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WHICH WILL PROVIDE A BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD CONVECTION.

IN CONCLUSION...THE MILD SUMMER OF 2015 CONTINUES INTO THE FIRST
WEEK OF SEPTEMBER...PERHAPS WITH A BIT MORE HUMIDITY THAN MOST WOULD
LIKE AS DEW POINTS CLIMB TO NEAR 70. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
STORMS EACH DAY...BUT NOT LOOKING LIKE ANY DAY WILL BE A WASHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AT INL...THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE SITE THROUGH 08Z WITH MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT...THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH MVFR FOG EXPECTED AROUND 09Z TO 12Z.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...IT WILL BE VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  78  62  84  63 /  30   0   0   0
INL  81  62  90  63 /  10   0   0  10
BRD  82  62  86  65 /  10   0   0  10
HYR  76  59  82  62 /  30   0   0   0
ASX  79  59  85  62 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MELDE
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 290540
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1240 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

ADDED LIKELY POPS FOR AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WHEN
IT WILL MOVE OUT OF MN. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...SKY...AND
WIND.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS FROM DLH TO THE IRON RANGE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OF JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
EVENING. THEY MAY DRIFT DOWN INTO LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO DECREASE QPF DUE TO THE LOCATION
OF THE STORMS.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AT INL...THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE SITE THROUGH 08Z WITH MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT...THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH MVFR FOG EXPECTED AROUND 09Z TO 12Z.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...IT WILL BE VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  81  63  81 /   0   0   0  10
INL  61  88  64  82 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  63  84  64  84 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  58  81  62  83 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  57  82  62  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JJM





000
FXUS63 KDLH 290540
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1240 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

ADDED LIKELY POPS FOR AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WHEN
IT WILL MOVE OUT OF MN. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...SKY...AND
WIND.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS FROM DLH TO THE IRON RANGE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OF JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
EVENING. THEY MAY DRIFT DOWN INTO LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO DECREASE QPF DUE TO THE LOCATION
OF THE STORMS.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AT INL...THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE SITE THROUGH 08Z WITH MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT...THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH MVFR FOG EXPECTED AROUND 09Z TO 12Z.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...IT WILL BE VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  81  63  81 /   0   0   0  10
INL  61  88  64  82 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  63  84  64  84 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  58  81  62  83 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  57  82  62  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 290540
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1240 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

ADDED LIKELY POPS FOR AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WHEN
IT WILL MOVE OUT OF MN. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...SKY...AND
WIND.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS FROM DLH TO THE IRON RANGE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OF JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
EVENING. THEY MAY DRIFT DOWN INTO LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO DECREASE QPF DUE TO THE LOCATION
OF THE STORMS.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AT INL...THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE SITE THROUGH 08Z WITH MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT...THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH MVFR FOG EXPECTED AROUND 09Z TO 12Z.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...IT WILL BE VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  81  63  81 /   0   0   0  10
INL  61  88  64  82 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  63  84  64  84 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  58  81  62  83 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  57  82  62  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JJM





000
FXUS63 KDLH 290540
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1240 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

ADDED LIKELY POPS FOR AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WHEN
IT WILL MOVE OUT OF MN. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...SKY...AND
WIND.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS FROM DLH TO THE IRON RANGE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OF JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
EVENING. THEY MAY DRIFT DOWN INTO LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO DECREASE QPF DUE TO THE LOCATION
OF THE STORMS.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1238 AM CDT SAT AUG 29 2015

AT INL...THUNDERSTORMS MAY AFFECT THE SITE THROUGH 08Z WITH MVFR-
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE FOR TONIGHT...THE REST OF THE
TAF SITES WILL BE VFR WITH MVFR FOG EXPECTED AROUND 09Z TO 12Z.
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY EVENING...IT WILL BE VFR AT
ALL TAF SITES WITH LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KTS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  61  81  63  81 /   0   0   0  10
INL  61  88  64  82 /   0   0  10  20
BRD  63  84  64  84 /   0   0   0  10
HYR  58  81  62  83 /   0   0   0  10
ASX  57  82  62  83 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...JJM




000
FXUS63 KDLH 290151
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
851 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

ADDED LIKLEY POPS FOR AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WHEN
IT WILL MOVE OUT OF MN. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...SKY...AND
WIND.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS FROM DLH TO THE IRON RANGE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OF JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
EVENING. THEY MAY DRIFT DOWN INTO LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO DECREASE QPF DUE TO THE LOCATION
OF THE STORMS.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  61  81 /  20  10   0   0
INL  59  81  61  88 /  50  10   0   0
BRD  56  80  63  84 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  53  76  58  81 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  55  77  57  82 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...STEWART




000
FXUS63 KDLH 290151
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
851 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

ADDED LIKLEY POPS FOR AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WHEN
IT WILL MOVE OUT OF MN. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...SKY...AND
WIND.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS FROM DLH TO THE IRON RANGE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OF JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
EVENING. THEY MAY DRIFT DOWN INTO LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO DECREASE QPF DUE TO THE LOCATION
OF THE STORMS.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  61  81 /  20  10   0   0
INL  59  81  61  88 /  50  10   0   0
BRD  56  80  63  84 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  53  76  58  81 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  55  77  57  82 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...STEWART





000
FXUS63 KDLH 290151
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
851 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

ADDED LIKLEY POPS FOR AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WHEN
IT WILL MOVE OUT OF MN. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...SKY...AND
WIND.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS FROM DLH TO THE IRON RANGE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OF JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
EVENING. THEY MAY DRIFT DOWN INTO LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO DECREASE QPF DUE TO THE LOCATION
OF THE STORMS.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  61  81 /  20  10   0   0
INL  59  81  61  88 /  50  10   0   0
BRD  56  80  63  84 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  53  76  58  81 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  55  77  57  82 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...STEWART




000
FXUS63 KDLH 290151
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
851 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

ADDED LIKLEY POPS FOR AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ALONG
INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THIS PRECIP WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z WHEN
IT WILL MOVE OUT OF MN. MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS...SKY...AND
WIND.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS FROM DLH TO THE IRON RANGE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OF JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
EVENING. THEY MAY DRIFT DOWN INTO LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO DECREASE QPF DUE TO THE LOCATION
OF THE STORMS.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  61  81 /  20  10   0   0
INL  59  81  61  88 /  50  10   0   0
BRD  56  80  63  84 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  53  76  58  81 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  55  77  57  82 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...STEWART





000
FXUS63 KDLH 290003
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS FROM DLH TO THE IRON RANGE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OF JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
EVENING. THEY MAY DRIFT DOWN INTO LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO DECREASE QPF DUE TO THE LOCATION
OF THE STORMS.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  61  81 /  10  10   0   0
INL  59  81  61  88 /  30  10   0   0
BRD  57  80  63  84 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  54  76  58  81 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  55  77  57  82 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...STEWART





000
FXUS63 KDLH 290003
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS FROM DLH TO THE IRON RANGE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OF JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
EVENING. THEY MAY DRIFT DOWN INTO LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO DECREASE QPF DUE TO THE LOCATION
OF THE STORMS.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  61  81 /  10  10   0   0
INL  59  81  61  88 /  30  10   0   0
BRD  57  80  63  84 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  54  76  58  81 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  55  77  57  82 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...STEWART




000
FXUS63 KDLH 290003
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS FROM DLH TO THE IRON RANGE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OF JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
EVENING. THEY MAY DRIFT DOWN INTO LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO DECREASE QPF DUE TO THE LOCATION
OF THE STORMS.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  61  81 /  10  10   0   0
INL  59  81  61  88 /  30  10   0   0
BRD  57  80  63  84 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  54  76  58  81 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  55  77  57  82 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...STEWART





000
FXUS63 KDLH 290003
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 703 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED TO DECREASE POPS FROM DLH TO THE IRON RANGE. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OF JUST NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THIS
EVENING. THEY MAY DRIFT DOWN INTO LAKE AND COOK COUNTIES IN THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HAVE ALSO DECREASE QPF DUE TO THE LOCATION
OF THE STORMS.  REST OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  61  81 /  10  10   0   0
INL  59  81  61  88 /  30  10   0   0
BRD  57  80  63  84 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  54  76  58  81 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  55  77  57  82 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...STEWART




000
FXUS63 KDLH 282335
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...635 PM CDT AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS AT
BOTTOM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02Z AT INL DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CANADA.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH MVFR-IFR IN FOG EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR-IFR IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  61  81 /  30  10   0   0
INL  59  81  61  88 /  40  10   0   0
BRD  57  80  63  84 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  54  76  58  81 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  55  77  57  82 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...STEWART




000
FXUS63 KDLH 282335
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

...635 PM CDT AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS AT
BOTTOM...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 02Z AT INL DUE TO
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN CANADA.
OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR WITH MVFR-IFR IN FOG EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE TAF SITES WILL BE VFR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH MVFR-IFR IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  61  81 /  30  10   0   0
INL  59  81  61  88 /  40  10   0   0
BRD  57  80  63  84 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  54  76  58  81 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  55  77  57  82 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...STEWART





000
FXUS63 KDLH 282054
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
354 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  61  81 /  30  10   0   0
INL  59  81  61  88 /  40  10   0   0
BRD  57  80  63  84 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  54  76  58  81 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  55  77  57  82 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...KK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 282054
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
354 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  61  81 /  30  10   0   0
INL  59  81  61  88 /  40  10   0   0
BRD  57  80  63  84 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  54  76  58  81 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  55  77  57  82 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...KK





000
FXUS63 KDLH 282054
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
354 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO HELP CAUSE SOME STORMS
OVER THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING. CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SHOW SOME
STORMS IN THE FAR ARROWHEAD MOVING OVER LAKE SUPERIOR WHILE
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS WAS OVER THE NORTHWEST ANGLE.THIS IS THE
STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BE AFFECTING THE MINNESOTA FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR ENTERING
NORTHWEST MN INTO A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WHERE THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS MUCAPES OF 3-4K J/KG AND A STRONG AREA OF SFC
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. WIND SHEAR IS THERE...ABOUT 15 KTS...BUT NOT
STRONG. WITH THE WET BULB ZERO FAIRLY LOW..AROUND 10-11K FT...HAIL
WILL BE THE BIGGEST THREAT...WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY SEEN TODAY. THE
BEST LIFT AND MOST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR NORTH...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT SOME STORMS ACROSS OVER THE MN WARNING AREA. SFC
HIGH PRESS RIDGE WILL KEEP MOST OF WI DRY OVERNIGHT.

THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND SFC HIGH WILL BUILD INTO THE WHOLE
REGION OVERNIGHT.


.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER WISCONSIN BRINGING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND MILD OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES TO THE NORTHLAND ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON SUNDAY BRINGING
WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S. A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM THE MANITOBA ONTARIO BORDER IN SOUTHERN CANADA
THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD ON MONDAY BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA
DURING THE DAY. THE FRONT WILL MAKE LITTLE PROGRESS TO THE EAST AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THE FRONT WILL POSITION ITSELF NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST BISECTING
MINNESOTA ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE BRAINERD LAKES REGION TO THE TIP OF
THE ARROWHEAD AND POINTS NORTHWESTWARD ON TUESDAY. THE BOUNDARY
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKENS ON WEDNESDAY YIELDING A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO NORTHEASTERN
MINNESOTA AND NORTHWESTERN WISCONSIN. THE FRONT DISSOLVES OVER THE
AREA ON THURSDAY AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF CHANCES OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE NORTHLAND ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS WHEN DIURNAL HEATING IS
THE GREATEST. TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NEXT WEEK WILL BE
ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER
80S.&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  61  81 /  30  10   0   0
INL  59  81  61  88 /  40  10   0   0
BRD  57  80  63  84 /  20  10   0   0
HYR  54  76  58  81 /  20  10   0   0
ASX  55  77  57  82 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CLC
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...KK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281736
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW...

ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESTOA EARLIER THAN
THAN PERVIOUSLY FORECAST. CLOUD TOPS OF INCOMING MCS STILL
COOLING...SO EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MN IN
THE EVENING PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET GOING INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED LOW TRACKING EWD
ACROSS SRN MN INTO CENTRAL WI...AND A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE ND/NWRN MN REGION. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL PHASE TOGETHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MUCH OF THE
FORCING FROM THE SRN LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
STATE HIGHWAY 70 IN WI WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE OVER NE MN WHERE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE 2000
J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 30-40 KT WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
VERY STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG STORMS IS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SKIES MAY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT...BUT THE
LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE QUIET AND QUITE PLEASANT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
NOTICEABLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. MORE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FORM AN OMEGA BLOCK ON SUNDAY. THIS OMEGA BLOCK MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A SW FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY...A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS NEWD TOWARD NW MN WHILE
THE SFC RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS ENERGY MAY CLIP THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
IN THE SW FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SPEED AND TIMING OF THESE PIECES WARRANT HAVING SOME POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO MIDSUMMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  57  76  61 /  20  30  10   0
INL  76  59  81  61 /  60  60  10   0
BRD  76  57  80  63 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  72  54  76  58 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  75  55  77  57 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...KK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281736
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...FOR THE 18Z TAF DISCUSSION BELOW...

ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESTOA EARLIER THAN
THAN PERVIOUSLY FORECAST. CLOUD TOPS OF INCOMING MCS STILL
COOLING...SO EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MN IN
THE EVENING PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET GOING INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED LOW TRACKING EWD
ACROSS SRN MN INTO CENTRAL WI...AND A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE ND/NWRN MN REGION. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL PHASE TOGETHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MUCH OF THE
FORCING FROM THE SRN LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
STATE HIGHWAY 70 IN WI WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE OVER NE MN WHERE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE 2000
J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 30-40 KT WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
VERY STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG STORMS IS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SKIES MAY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT...BUT THE
LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE QUIET AND QUITE PLEASANT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
NOTICEABLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. MORE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FORM AN OMEGA BLOCK ON SUNDAY. THIS OMEGA BLOCK MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A SW FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY...A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS NEWD TOWARD NW MN WHILE
THE SFC RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS ENERGY MAY CLIP THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
IN THE SW FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SPEED AND TIMING OF THESE PIECES WARRANT HAVING SOME POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO MIDSUMMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CEILINGS AT DLH AND HIB WILL IMPROVE BY 19Z. GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS OF UP TO 20 KNOTS WILL DEVELOP OVER ALL TERMINALS AT
THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST. HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR INL AND
HIB FOR THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 21Z AND 02Z. MVFR CEILINGS WILL
ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. INCLUDED REDUCED VISIBILITIES
FROM 09Z TO 14Z OVER THE TERMINALS WITH HIB...DLH AND HYR DROPPING
TO IFR VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  57  76  61 /  20  30  10   0
INL  76  59  81  61 /  60  60  10   0
BRD  76  57  80  63 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  72  54  76  58 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  75  55  77  57 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...KK





000
FXUS63 KDLH 281519 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1019 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESTOA EARLIER THAN
THAN PERVIOUSLY FORECAST. CLOUD TOPS OF INCOMING MCS STILL
COOLING...SO EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MN IN
THE EVENING PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET GOING INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED LOW TRACKING EWD
ACROSS SRN MN INTO CENTRAL WI...AND A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE ND/NWRN MN REGION. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL PHASE TOGETHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MUCH OF THE
FORCING FROM THE SRN LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
STATE HIGHWAY 70 IN WI WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE OVER NE MN WHERE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE 2000
J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 30-40 KT WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
VERY STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG STORMS IS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SKIES MAY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT...BUT THE
LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE QUIET AND QUITE PLEASANT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
NOTICEABLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. MORE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FORM AN OMEGA BLOCK ON SUNDAY. THIS OMEGA BLOCK MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A SW FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY...A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS NEWD TOWARD NW MN WHILE
THE SFC RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS ENERGY MAY CLIP THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
IN THE SW FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SPEED AND TIMING OF THESE PIECES WARRANT HAVING SOME POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO MIDSUMMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A VARIETY OF CIGS/VSBYS AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. AREAS OF BR
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT SEVERAL SPOTS WHILE INL/HYR ARE VFR.
EXPECT THE LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS TO AFFECT HIB/INL WITH
APPROACHING STORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. NO RAIN ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO DEPART AFTER 09Z WITH VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  57  76  61 /  20  30  10   0
INL  76  59  81  61 /  60  60  10   0
BRD  76  57  80  63 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  72  54  76  58 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  75  55  77  57 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF





000
FXUS63 KDLH 281519 AAA
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1019 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVING INTO NORTHERN MINNESTOA EARLIER THAN
THAN PERVIOUSLY FORECAST. CLOUD TOPS OF INCOMING MCS STILL
COOLING...SO EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MN IN
THE EVENING PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET GOING INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED LOW TRACKING EWD
ACROSS SRN MN INTO CENTRAL WI...AND A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE ND/NWRN MN REGION. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL PHASE TOGETHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MUCH OF THE
FORCING FROM THE SRN LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
STATE HIGHWAY 70 IN WI WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE OVER NE MN WHERE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE 2000
J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 30-40 KT WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
VERY STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG STORMS IS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SKIES MAY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT...BUT THE
LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE QUIET AND QUITE PLEASANT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
NOTICEABLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. MORE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FORM AN OMEGA BLOCK ON SUNDAY. THIS OMEGA BLOCK MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A SW FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY...A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS NEWD TOWARD NW MN WHILE
THE SFC RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS ENERGY MAY CLIP THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
IN THE SW FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SPEED AND TIMING OF THESE PIECES WARRANT HAVING SOME POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO MIDSUMMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A VARIETY OF CIGS/VSBYS AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. AREAS OF BR
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT SEVERAL SPOTS WHILE INL/HYR ARE VFR.
EXPECT THE LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS TO AFFECT HIB/INL WITH
APPROACHING STORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. NO RAIN ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO DEPART AFTER 09Z WITH VFR.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  57  76  61 /  20  30  10   0
INL  76  59  81  61 /  60  60  10   0
BRD  76  57  80  63 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  72  54  76  58 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  75  55  77  57 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CLC
SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 281131
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
631 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MN IN
THE EVENING PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET GOING INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED LOW TRACKING EWD
ACROSS SRN MN INTO CENTRAL WI...AND A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE ND/NWRN MN REGION. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL PHASE TOGETHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MUCH OF THE
FORCING FROM THE SRN LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
STATE HIGHWAY 70 IN WI WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE OVER NE MN WHERE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE 2000
J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 30-40 KT WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
VERY STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG STORMS IS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SKIES MAY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT...BUT THE
LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE QUIET AND QUITE PLEASANT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
NOTICEABLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. MORE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FORM AN OMEGA BLOCK ON SUNDAY. THIS OMEGA BLOCK MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A SW FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY...A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS NEWD TOWARD NW MN WHILE
THE SFC RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS ENERGY MAY CLIP THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
IN THE SW FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SPEED AND TIMING OF THESE PIECES WARRANT HAVING SOME POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO MIDSUMMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A VARIETY OF CIGS/VSBYS AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. AREAS OF BR
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT SEVERAL SPOTS WHILE INL/HYR ARE VFR.
EXPECT THE LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS TO AFFECT HIB/INL WITH
APPROACHING STORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. NO RAIN ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO DEPART AFTER 09Z WITH VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  57  76  61 /  20  30  10   0
INL  79  59  81  61 /  60  60  10   0
BRD  76  57  80  63 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  72  54  76  58 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  75  55  77  57 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF





000
FXUS63 KDLH 281131
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
631 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MN IN
THE EVENING PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET GOING INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED LOW TRACKING EWD
ACROSS SRN MN INTO CENTRAL WI...AND A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE ND/NWRN MN REGION. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL PHASE TOGETHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MUCH OF THE
FORCING FROM THE SRN LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
STATE HIGHWAY 70 IN WI WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE OVER NE MN WHERE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE 2000
J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 30-40 KT WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
VERY STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG STORMS IS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SKIES MAY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT...BUT THE
LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE QUIET AND QUITE PLEASANT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
NOTICEABLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. MORE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FORM AN OMEGA BLOCK ON SUNDAY. THIS OMEGA BLOCK MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A SW FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY...A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS NEWD TOWARD NW MN WHILE
THE SFC RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS ENERGY MAY CLIP THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
IN THE SW FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SPEED AND TIMING OF THESE PIECES WARRANT HAVING SOME POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO MIDSUMMER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

A VARIETY OF CIGS/VSBYS AT THE OUTSET OF THE FORECAST. AREAS OF BR
WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS AT SEVERAL SPOTS WHILE INL/HYR ARE VFR.
EXPECT THE LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO IMPROVE TO VFR AFTER 14Z. BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEARS TO AFFECT HIB/INL WITH
APPROACHING STORM COMPLEX IN SOUTHERN MANITOBA. NO RAIN ELSEWHERE.
EXPECT THE STORMS TO DEPART AFTER 09Z WITH VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  57  76  61 /  20  30  10   0
INL  79  59  81  61 /  60  60  10   0
BRD  76  57  80  63 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  72  54  76  58 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  75  55  77  57 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...GSF




000
FXUS63 KDLH 280826
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
326 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MN IN
THE EVENING PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET GOING INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED LOW TRACKING EWD
ACROSS SRN MN INTO CENTRAL WI...AND A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE ND/NWRN MN REGION. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL PHASE TOGETHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MUCH OF THE
FORCING FROM THE SRN LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
STATE HIGHWAY 70 IN WI WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE OVER NE MN WHERE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE 2000
J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 30-40 KT WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
VERY STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG STORMS IS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SKIES MAY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT...BUT THE
LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE QUIET AND QUITE PLEASANT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
NOTICEABLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. MORE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FORM AN OMEGA BLOCK ON SUNDAY. THIS OMEGA BLOCK MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A SW FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY...A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS NEWD TOWARD NW MN WHILE
THE SFC RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS ENERGY MAY CLIP THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
IN THE SW FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SPEED AND TIMING OF THESE PIECES WARRANT HAVING SOME POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO MIDSUMMER CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CLOUD COVER OF 2-3KFT HAS AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDLH/KHIB/KBRD
THIS EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO DRIFT FURTHER
SOUTHWARD... AND CLEARING TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH... LEADING TO
VFR CIGS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS... FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO KHIB/KINL
WITH DECREASING VIS/CIGS AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  57  76  61 /  20  30  10   0
INL  79  59  81  61 /  60  60  10   0
BRD  76  57  80  63 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  72  54  76  58 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  75  55  77  57 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MCLOVIN




000
FXUS63 KDLH 280826
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
326 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MN IN
THE EVENING PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET GOING INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED LOW TRACKING EWD
ACROSS SRN MN INTO CENTRAL WI...AND A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE ND/NWRN MN REGION. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL PHASE TOGETHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MUCH OF THE
FORCING FROM THE SRN LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
STATE HIGHWAY 70 IN WI WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE OVER NE MN WHERE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE 2000
J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 30-40 KT WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
VERY STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG STORMS IS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SKIES MAY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT...BUT THE
LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE QUIET AND QUITE PLEASANT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
NOTICEABLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. MORE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FORM AN OMEGA BLOCK ON SUNDAY. THIS OMEGA BLOCK MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A SW FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY...A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS NEWD TOWARD NW MN WHILE
THE SFC RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS ENERGY MAY CLIP THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
IN THE SW FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SPEED AND TIMING OF THESE PIECES WARRANT HAVING SOME POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO MIDSUMMER CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CLOUD COVER OF 2-3KFT HAS AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDLH/KHIB/KBRD
THIS EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO DRIFT FURTHER
SOUTHWARD... AND CLEARING TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH... LEADING TO
VFR CIGS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS... FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO KHIB/KINL
WITH DECREASING VIS/CIGS AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  57  76  61 /  20  30  10   0
INL  79  59  81  61 /  60  60  10   0
BRD  76  57  80  63 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  72  54  76  58 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  75  55  77  57 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MCLOVIN




000
FXUS63 KDLH 280826
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
326 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MN IN
THE EVENING PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET GOING INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED LOW TRACKING EWD
ACROSS SRN MN INTO CENTRAL WI...AND A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE ND/NWRN MN REGION. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL PHASE TOGETHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MUCH OF THE
FORCING FROM THE SRN LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
STATE HIGHWAY 70 IN WI WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE OVER NE MN WHERE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE 2000
J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 30-40 KT WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
VERY STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG STORMS IS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SKIES MAY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT...BUT THE
LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE QUIET AND QUITE PLEASANT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
NOTICEABLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. MORE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FORM AN OMEGA BLOCK ON SUNDAY. THIS OMEGA BLOCK MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A SW FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY...A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS NEWD TOWARD NW MN WHILE
THE SFC RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS ENERGY MAY CLIP THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
IN THE SW FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SPEED AND TIMING OF THESE PIECES WARRANT HAVING SOME POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO MIDSUMMER CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CLOUD COVER OF 2-3KFT HAS AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDLH/KHIB/KBRD
THIS EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO DRIFT FURTHER
SOUTHWARD... AND CLEARING TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH... LEADING TO
VFR CIGS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS... FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO KHIB/KINL
WITH DECREASING VIS/CIGS AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  57  76  61 /  20  30  10   0
INL  79  59  81  61 /  60  60  10   0
BRD  76  57  80  63 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  72  54  76  58 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  75  55  77  57 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MCLOVIN





000
FXUS63 KDLH 280826
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
326 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE FOCUSED AROUND THE CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHLAND LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NE MN IN
THE EVENING PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUIET GOING INTO SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN.

THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONSISTS OF A CLOSED LOW TRACKING EWD
ACROSS SRN MN INTO CENTRAL WI...AND A SECONDARY UPPER TROUGH
DROPPING IN FROM THE NW THROUGH THE ND/NWRN MN REGION. THESE TWO
FEATURES WILL PHASE TOGETHER ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. MUCH OF THE
FORCING FROM THE SRN LOW WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE
NORTHLAND TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF
STATE HIGHWAY 70 IN WI WHERE A FEW SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS
COULD DEVELOP IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE MAIN AREA OF
CONCERN WILL BE OVER NE MN WHERE SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER S/W AND
ASSOCIATED SFC FRONT. AS TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES...ML CAPE VALUES WILL RISE ABOVE 2000
J/KG. THE COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR
AROUND 30-40 KT WILL PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND
VERY STRONG WINDS...ALONG WITH HEAVY RAINFALL. THE THREAT FOR
STRONG STORMS IS OVER MUCH OF THE REGION...BUT THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITY WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF US HIGHWAY 2 THIS EVENING.
THE FRONT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY
SATURDAY BEFORE GETTING PUSHED TO THE EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN ON SATURDAY. SKIES MAY TAKE A WHILE TO CLEAR OUT...BUT THE
LATTER HALF OF SATURDAY APPEARS TO BE QUIET AND QUITE PLEASANT.

TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL WARM INTO THE 70S AND LOWER 80S WITH
NOTICEABLY HIGHER HUMIDITY VALUES. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO
THE 50S AND LOWER 60S. MORE 70S AND 80S ARE EXPECTED ON SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT AND FORM AN OMEGA BLOCK ON SUNDAY. THIS OMEGA BLOCK MOVES EAST
OF THE AREA ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A SW FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME
ESTABLISHED AND PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY. A SFC RIDGE WILL BE IN
PLACE OVER THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ON
MONDAY...A PIECE OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY LIFTS NEWD TOWARD NW MN WHILE
THE SFC RIDGE SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST. THIS ENERGY MAY CLIP THE NW
CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AND HAVE SOME LOW POPS IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. PIECES OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED
IN THE SW FLOW WILL AFFECT THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.
SPEED AND TIMING OF THESE PIECES WARRANT HAVING SOME POPS FOR THIS
PERIOD. HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE INCREASING STARTING SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO MIDSUMMER CONDITIONS.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CLOUD COVER OF 2-3KFT HAS AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDLH/KHIB/KBRD
THIS EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO DRIFT FURTHER
SOUTHWARD... AND CLEARING TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH... LEADING TO
VFR CIGS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS... FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO KHIB/KINL
WITH DECREASING VIS/CIGS AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  75  57  76  61 /  20  30  10   0
INL  79  59  81  61 /  60  60  10   0
BRD  76  57  80  63 /  10  10  10   0
HYR  72  54  76  58 /  10  10   0   0
ASX  75  55  77  57 /  10  10  20   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...MCLOVIN





000
FXUS63 KDLH 280545
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BRAINERD AND LEECH LAKE AREAS AS
AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS MOVED ACROSS THOSE REGIONS. AREA OF PRECIP
IS SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AT 02Z. AS THE PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH...SOME OF IT MAY CLIP SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS IN NW WI. REST
OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LEAVING THE NORTHLAND IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO A SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE ENE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA OR FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
ASSOCIATED PCPN WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT
SOME OF THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF ITS RAIN COULD REACH NW WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EARLIER FORECASTS HAD THUNDER...BUT
REMOVED THIS CONSIDERING THE NAM/SREF/GFS/RAP INDICATE NEARLY NO
MUCAPE AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST A LOW THREAT
OF THIS FOG...AND NOT VERY CONFIDENT CONSIDERING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 2 TO 3 MPH COULD HELP
PREVENT FOG FORMATION. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOG...AND SINCE
IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...KEPT PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SINCE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S OVER THE NORTH...TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA MIGHT BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA WILL BE WARMER. A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO NE
NORTH DAKOTA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL SET
UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN AND IF THE
CAP BREAKS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HELP
DEVELOP THE STORMS. THE SREF/NAM/GEM/GEMREG MODELS SEEMED A LITTLE
EXTENSIVE AND TOO FAR SOUTH WITH PCPN CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT...SO LEANED MORE ON THE NCEPWRF/GFS/ECMWF. THE
MODELS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...SO THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD
NOT LEAD TO MUCH MELTING OF ANY HAILSTONES.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MY WISCONSIN ZONES ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE BRINGS AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY AM.
TRENDED TOWARD CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ON POPS FOR THIS EVENT AND
LEANED ON A BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF. THIS
YIELDED RAIN TOTALS NEAR ONE-QUARTER INCH...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
REASONABLE START. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE WHILE
OTHERS A LITTLE LESS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH SUNDAY...RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING UPPER TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE ALONG MY NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY NORTH OF
A WALKER/AITKIN/DULUTH LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

BY MIDWEEK THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW YIELDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE DURING THAT PERIOD
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANGES TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CLOUD COVER OF 2-3KFT HAS AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDLH/KHIB/KBRD
THIS EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO DRIFT FURTHER
SOUTHWARD... AND CLEARING TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH... LEADING TO
VFR CIGS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS... FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO KHIB/KINL
WITH DECREASING VIS/CIGS AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
INL  60  80  60  84 /  40  10   0   0
BRD  56  80  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  55  77  58  80 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  55  74  58  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCLOVIN
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...MCLOVIN




000
FXUS63 KDLH 280545
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BRAINERD AND LEECH LAKE AREAS AS
AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS MOVED ACROSS THOSE REGIONS. AREA OF PRECIP
IS SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AT 02Z. AS THE PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH...SOME OF IT MAY CLIP SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS IN NW WI. REST
OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LEAVING THE NORTHLAND IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO A SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE ENE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA OR FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
ASSOCIATED PCPN WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT
SOME OF THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF ITS RAIN COULD REACH NW WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EARLIER FORECASTS HAD THUNDER...BUT
REMOVED THIS CONSIDERING THE NAM/SREF/GFS/RAP INDICATE NEARLY NO
MUCAPE AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST A LOW THREAT
OF THIS FOG...AND NOT VERY CONFIDENT CONSIDERING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 2 TO 3 MPH COULD HELP
PREVENT FOG FORMATION. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOG...AND SINCE
IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...KEPT PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SINCE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S OVER THE NORTH...TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA MIGHT BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA WILL BE WARMER. A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO NE
NORTH DAKOTA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL SET
UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN AND IF THE
CAP BREAKS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HELP
DEVELOP THE STORMS. THE SREF/NAM/GEM/GEMREG MODELS SEEMED A LITTLE
EXTENSIVE AND TOO FAR SOUTH WITH PCPN CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT...SO LEANED MORE ON THE NCEPWRF/GFS/ECMWF. THE
MODELS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...SO THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD
NOT LEAD TO MUCH MELTING OF ANY HAILSTONES.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MY WISCONSIN ZONES ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE BRINGS AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY AM.
TRENDED TOWARD CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ON POPS FOR THIS EVENT AND
LEANED ON A BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF. THIS
YIELDED RAIN TOTALS NEAR ONE-QUARTER INCH...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
REASONABLE START. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE WHILE
OTHERS A LITTLE LESS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH SUNDAY...RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING UPPER TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE ALONG MY NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY NORTH OF
A WALKER/AITKIN/DULUTH LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

BY MIDWEEK THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW YIELDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE DURING THAT PERIOD
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANGES TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CLOUD COVER OF 2-3KFT HAS AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDLH/KHIB/KBRD
THIS EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO DRIFT FURTHER
SOUTHWARD... AND CLEARING TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH... LEADING TO
VFR CIGS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS... FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO KHIB/KINL
WITH DECREASING VIS/CIGS AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
INL  60  80  60  84 /  40  10   0   0
BRD  56  80  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  55  77  58  80 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  55  74  58  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCLOVIN
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...MCLOVIN





000
FXUS63 KDLH 280545
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BRAINERD AND LEECH LAKE AREAS AS
AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS MOVED ACROSS THOSE REGIONS. AREA OF PRECIP
IS SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AT 02Z. AS THE PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH...SOME OF IT MAY CLIP SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS IN NW WI. REST
OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LEAVING THE NORTHLAND IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO A SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE ENE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA OR FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
ASSOCIATED PCPN WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT
SOME OF THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF ITS RAIN COULD REACH NW WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EARLIER FORECASTS HAD THUNDER...BUT
REMOVED THIS CONSIDERING THE NAM/SREF/GFS/RAP INDICATE NEARLY NO
MUCAPE AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST A LOW THREAT
OF THIS FOG...AND NOT VERY CONFIDENT CONSIDERING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 2 TO 3 MPH COULD HELP
PREVENT FOG FORMATION. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOG...AND SINCE
IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...KEPT PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SINCE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S OVER THE NORTH...TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA MIGHT BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA WILL BE WARMER. A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO NE
NORTH DAKOTA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL SET
UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN AND IF THE
CAP BREAKS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HELP
DEVELOP THE STORMS. THE SREF/NAM/GEM/GEMREG MODELS SEEMED A LITTLE
EXTENSIVE AND TOO FAR SOUTH WITH PCPN CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT...SO LEANED MORE ON THE NCEPWRF/GFS/ECMWF. THE
MODELS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...SO THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD
NOT LEAD TO MUCH MELTING OF ANY HAILSTONES.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MY WISCONSIN ZONES ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE BRINGS AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY AM.
TRENDED TOWARD CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ON POPS FOR THIS EVENT AND
LEANED ON A BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF. THIS
YIELDED RAIN TOTALS NEAR ONE-QUARTER INCH...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
REASONABLE START. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE WHILE
OTHERS A LITTLE LESS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH SUNDAY...RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING UPPER TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE ALONG MY NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY NORTH OF
A WALKER/AITKIN/DULUTH LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

BY MIDWEEK THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW YIELDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE DURING THAT PERIOD
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANGES TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CLOUD COVER OF 2-3KFT HAS AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDLH/KHIB/KBRD
THIS EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO DRIFT FURTHER
SOUTHWARD... AND CLEARING TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH... LEADING TO
VFR CIGS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS... FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO KHIB/KINL
WITH DECREASING VIS/CIGS AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
INL  60  80  60  84 /  40  10   0   0
BRD  56  80  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  55  77  58  80 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  55  74  58  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCLOVIN
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...MCLOVIN





000
FXUS63 KDLH 280545
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

UPDATED FOR THE 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION

UPDATE ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BRAINERD AND LEECH LAKE AREAS AS
AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS MOVED ACROSS THOSE REGIONS. AREA OF PRECIP
IS SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AT 02Z. AS THE PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH...SOME OF IT MAY CLIP SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS IN NW WI. REST
OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LEAVING THE NORTHLAND IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO A SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE ENE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA OR FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
ASSOCIATED PCPN WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT
SOME OF THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF ITS RAIN COULD REACH NW WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EARLIER FORECASTS HAD THUNDER...BUT
REMOVED THIS CONSIDERING THE NAM/SREF/GFS/RAP INDICATE NEARLY NO
MUCAPE AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST A LOW THREAT
OF THIS FOG...AND NOT VERY CONFIDENT CONSIDERING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 2 TO 3 MPH COULD HELP
PREVENT FOG FORMATION. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOG...AND SINCE
IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...KEPT PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SINCE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S OVER THE NORTH...TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA MIGHT BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA WILL BE WARMER. A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO NE
NORTH DAKOTA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL SET
UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN AND IF THE
CAP BREAKS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HELP
DEVELOP THE STORMS. THE SREF/NAM/GEM/GEMREG MODELS SEEMED A LITTLE
EXTENSIVE AND TOO FAR SOUTH WITH PCPN CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT...SO LEANED MORE ON THE NCEPWRF/GFS/ECMWF. THE
MODELS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...SO THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD
NOT LEAD TO MUCH MELTING OF ANY HAILSTONES.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MY WISCONSIN ZONES ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE BRINGS AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY AM.
TRENDED TOWARD CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ON POPS FOR THIS EVENT AND
LEANED ON A BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF. THIS
YIELDED RAIN TOTALS NEAR ONE-QUARTER INCH...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
REASONABLE START. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE WHILE
OTHERS A LITTLE LESS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH SUNDAY...RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING UPPER TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE ALONG MY NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY NORTH OF
A WALKER/AITKIN/DULUTH LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

BY MIDWEEK THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW YIELDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE DURING THAT PERIOD
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANGES TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1245 AM CDT FRI AUG 28 2015

MVFR CLOUD COVER OF 2-3KFT HAS AFFECTED THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES OF KDLH/KHIB/KBRD
THIS EVENING. GENERALLY EXPECTING THESE CLOUDS TO DRIFT FURTHER
SOUTHWARD... AND CLEARING TO INCREASE FROM THE NORTH... LEADING TO
VFR CIGS OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS. HOWEVER WITH LIGHT
WINDS... FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS
WILL INCREASE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FRIDAY
AFTERNOON... BRINGING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO KHIB/KINL
WITH DECREASING VIS/CIGS AFTER 03Z SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  57  76  59  79 /   0   0   0   0
INL  60  80  60  84 /  40  10   0   0
BRD  56  80  62  82 /   0   0   0   0
HYR  55  77  58  80 /  10   0   0   0
ASX  55  74  58  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MCLOVIN
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...MCLOVIN




000
FXUS63 KDLH 280202
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
902 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BRAINERD AND LEECH LAKE AREAS AS
AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS MOVED ACROSS THOSE REGIONS. AREA OF PRECIP
IS SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AT 02Z. AS THE PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH...SOME OF IT MAY CLIP SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS IN NW WI. REST
OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LEAVING THE NORTHLAND IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO A SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE ENE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA OR FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
ASSOCIATED PCPN WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT
SOME OF THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF ITS RAIN COULD REACH NW WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EARLIER FORECASTS HAD THUNDER...BUT
REMOVED THIS CONSIDERING THE NAM/SREF/GFS/RAP INDICATE NEARLY NO
MUCAPE AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST A LOW THREAT
OF THIS FOG...AND NOT VERY CONFIDENT CONSIDERING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 2 TO 3 MPH COULD HELP
PREVENT FOG FORMATION. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOG...AND SINCE
IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...KEPT PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SINCE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S OVER THE NORTH...TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA MIGHT BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA WILL BE WARMER. A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO NE
NORTH DAKOTA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL SET
UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN AND IF THE
CAP BREAKS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HELP
DEVELOP THE STORMS. THE SREF/NAM/GEM/GEMREG MODELS SEEMED A LITTLE
EXTENSIVE AND TOO FAR SOUTH WITH PCPN CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT...SO LEANED MORE ON THE NCEPWRF/GFS/ECMWF. THE
MODELS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...SO THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD
NOT LEAD TO MUCH MELTING OF ANY HAILSTONES.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MY WISCONSIN ZONES ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE BRINGS AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY AM.
TRENDED TOWARD CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ON POPS FOR THIS EVENT AND
LEANED ON A BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF. THIS
YIELDED RAIN TOTALS NEAR ONE-QUARTER INCH...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
REASONABLE START. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE WHILE
OTHERS A LITTLE LESS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH SUNDAY...RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING UPPER TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE ALONG MY NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY NORTH OF
A WALKER/AITKIN/DULUTH LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

BY MIDWEEK THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW YIELDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE DURING THAT PERIOD
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANGES TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS HIB AND INL TAF SITES
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  75  57  76 /  10  10   0   0
INL  53  79  60  80 /  10  40  40  10
BRD  59  76  56  80 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  57  72  55  77 /  20  20  10   0
ASX  57  75  55  74 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...STEWART





000
FXUS63 KDLH 280202
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
902 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 902 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

INCREASED CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE BRAINERD AND LEECH LAKE AREAS AS
AN AREA OF STRATUS HAS MOVED ACROSS THOSE REGIONS. AREA OF PRECIP
IS SOUTH OF THE TWIN CITIES AT 02Z. AS THE PRECIP SLOWLY MOVES
NORTH...SOME OF IT MAY CLIP SOUTHERN FORECAST AREAS IN NW WI. REST
OF FCST UNCHANGED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LEAVING THE NORTHLAND IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO A SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE ENE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA OR FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
ASSOCIATED PCPN WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT
SOME OF THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF ITS RAIN COULD REACH NW WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EARLIER FORECASTS HAD THUNDER...BUT
REMOVED THIS CONSIDERING THE NAM/SREF/GFS/RAP INDICATE NEARLY NO
MUCAPE AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST A LOW THREAT
OF THIS FOG...AND NOT VERY CONFIDENT CONSIDERING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 2 TO 3 MPH COULD HELP
PREVENT FOG FORMATION. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOG...AND SINCE
IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...KEPT PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SINCE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S OVER THE NORTH...TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA MIGHT BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA WILL BE WARMER. A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO NE
NORTH DAKOTA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL SET
UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN AND IF THE
CAP BREAKS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HELP
DEVELOP THE STORMS. THE SREF/NAM/GEM/GEMREG MODELS SEEMED A LITTLE
EXTENSIVE AND TOO FAR SOUTH WITH PCPN CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT...SO LEANED MORE ON THE NCEPWRF/GFS/ECMWF. THE
MODELS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...SO THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD
NOT LEAD TO MUCH MELTING OF ANY HAILSTONES.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MY WISCONSIN ZONES ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE BRINGS AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY AM.
TRENDED TOWARD CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ON POPS FOR THIS EVENT AND
LEANED ON A BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF. THIS
YIELDED RAIN TOTALS NEAR ONE-QUARTER INCH...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
REASONABLE START. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE WHILE
OTHERS A LITTLE LESS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH SUNDAY...RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING UPPER TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE ALONG MY NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY NORTH OF
A WALKER/AITKIN/DULUTH LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

BY MIDWEEK THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW YIELDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE DURING THAT PERIOD
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANGES TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS HIB AND INL TAF SITES
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  55  75  57  76 /  10  10   0   0
INL  53  79  60  80 /  10  40  40  10
BRD  59  76  56  80 /  10  10   0   0
HYR  57  72  55  77 /  20  20  10   0
ASX  57  75  55  74 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...STEWART
SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...STEWART




000
FXUS63 KDLH 272344
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

***644 PM AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS AT BOTTOM***

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LEAVING THE NORTHLAND IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO A SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE ENE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA OR FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
ASSOCIATED PCPN WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT
SOME OF THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF ITS RAIN COULD REACH NW WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EARLIER FORECASTS HAD THUNDER...BUT
REMOVED THIS CONSIDERING THE NAM/SREF/GFS/RAP INDICATE NEARLY NO
MUCAPE AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST A LOW THREAT
OF THIS FOG...AND NOT VERY CONFIDENT CONSIDERING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 2 TO 3 MPH COULD HELP
PREVENT FOG FORMATION. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOG...AND SINCE
IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...KEPT PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SINCE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S OVER THE NORTH...TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA MIGHT BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA WILL BE WARMER. A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO NE
NORTH DAKOTA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL SET
UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN AND IF THE
CAP BREAKS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HELP
DEVELOP THE STORMS. THE SREF/NAM/GEM/GEMREG MODELS SEEMED A LITTLE
EXTENSIVE AND TOO FAR SOUTH WITH PCPN CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT...SO LEANED MORE ON THE NCEPWRF/GFS/ECMWF. THE
MODELS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...SO THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD
NOT LEAD TO MUCH MELTING OF ANY HAILSTONES.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MY WISCONSIN ZONES ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE BRINGS AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY AM.
TRENDED TOWARD CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ON POPS FOR THIS EVENT AND
LEANED ON A BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF. THIS
YIELDED RAIN TOTALS NEAR ONE-QUARTER INCH...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
REASONABLE START. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE WHILE
OTHERS A LITTLE LESS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH SUNDAY...RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING UPPER TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE ALONG MY NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY NORTH OF
A WALKER/AITKIN/DULUTH LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

BY MIDWEEK THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW YIELDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE DURING THAT PERIOD
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANGES TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS HIB AND INL TAF SITES
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  75  57  76 /  10  10   0   0
INL  53  79  60  80 /   0  40  40  10
BRD  60  76  56  80 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  72  55  77 /  20  20  10   0
ASX  57  75  55  74 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...STEWART




000
FXUS63 KDLH 272344
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

***644 PM AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS AT BOTTOM***

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LEAVING THE NORTHLAND IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO A SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE ENE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA OR FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
ASSOCIATED PCPN WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT
SOME OF THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF ITS RAIN COULD REACH NW WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EARLIER FORECASTS HAD THUNDER...BUT
REMOVED THIS CONSIDERING THE NAM/SREF/GFS/RAP INDICATE NEARLY NO
MUCAPE AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST A LOW THREAT
OF THIS FOG...AND NOT VERY CONFIDENT CONSIDERING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 2 TO 3 MPH COULD HELP
PREVENT FOG FORMATION. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOG...AND SINCE
IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...KEPT PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SINCE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S OVER THE NORTH...TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA MIGHT BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA WILL BE WARMER. A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO NE
NORTH DAKOTA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL SET
UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN AND IF THE
CAP BREAKS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HELP
DEVELOP THE STORMS. THE SREF/NAM/GEM/GEMREG MODELS SEEMED A LITTLE
EXTENSIVE AND TOO FAR SOUTH WITH PCPN CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT...SO LEANED MORE ON THE NCEPWRF/GFS/ECMWF. THE
MODELS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...SO THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD
NOT LEAD TO MUCH MELTING OF ANY HAILSTONES.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MY WISCONSIN ZONES ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE BRINGS AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY AM.
TRENDED TOWARD CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ON POPS FOR THIS EVENT AND
LEANED ON A BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF. THIS
YIELDED RAIN TOTALS NEAR ONE-QUARTER INCH...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
REASONABLE START. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE WHILE
OTHERS A LITTLE LESS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH SUNDAY...RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING UPPER TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE ALONG MY NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY NORTH OF
A WALKER/AITKIN/DULUTH LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

BY MIDWEEK THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW YIELDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE DURING THAT PERIOD
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANGES TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS HIB AND INL TAF SITES
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  75  57  76 /  10  10   0   0
INL  53  79  60  80 /   0  40  40  10
BRD  60  76  56  80 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  72  55  77 /  20  20  10   0
ASX  57  75  55  74 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...STEWART





000
FXUS63 KDLH 272344
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

***644 PM AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS AT BOTTOM***

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LEAVING THE NORTHLAND IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO A SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE ENE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA OR FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
ASSOCIATED PCPN WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT
SOME OF THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF ITS RAIN COULD REACH NW WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EARLIER FORECASTS HAD THUNDER...BUT
REMOVED THIS CONSIDERING THE NAM/SREF/GFS/RAP INDICATE NEARLY NO
MUCAPE AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST A LOW THREAT
OF THIS FOG...AND NOT VERY CONFIDENT CONSIDERING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 2 TO 3 MPH COULD HELP
PREVENT FOG FORMATION. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOG...AND SINCE
IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...KEPT PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SINCE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S OVER THE NORTH...TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA MIGHT BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA WILL BE WARMER. A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO NE
NORTH DAKOTA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL SET
UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN AND IF THE
CAP BREAKS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HELP
DEVELOP THE STORMS. THE SREF/NAM/GEM/GEMREG MODELS SEEMED A LITTLE
EXTENSIVE AND TOO FAR SOUTH WITH PCPN CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT...SO LEANED MORE ON THE NCEPWRF/GFS/ECMWF. THE
MODELS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...SO THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD
NOT LEAD TO MUCH MELTING OF ANY HAILSTONES.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MY WISCONSIN ZONES ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE BRINGS AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY AM.
TRENDED TOWARD CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ON POPS FOR THIS EVENT AND
LEANED ON A BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF. THIS
YIELDED RAIN TOTALS NEAR ONE-QUARTER INCH...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
REASONABLE START. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE WHILE
OTHERS A LITTLE LESS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH SUNDAY...RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING UPPER TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE ALONG MY NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY NORTH OF
A WALKER/AITKIN/DULUTH LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

BY MIDWEEK THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW YIELDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE DURING THAT PERIOD
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANGES TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS HIB AND INL TAF SITES
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  75  57  76 /  10  10   0   0
INL  53  79  60  80 /   0  40  40  10
BRD  60  76  56  80 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  72  55  77 /  20  20  10   0
ASX  57  75  55  74 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...STEWART





000
FXUS63 KDLH 272344
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

***644 PM AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR 00Z TAFS AT BOTTOM***

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LEAVING THE NORTHLAND IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO A SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE ENE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA OR FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
ASSOCIATED PCPN WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT
SOME OF THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF ITS RAIN COULD REACH NW WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EARLIER FORECASTS HAD THUNDER...BUT
REMOVED THIS CONSIDERING THE NAM/SREF/GFS/RAP INDICATE NEARLY NO
MUCAPE AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST A LOW THREAT
OF THIS FOG...AND NOT VERY CONFIDENT CONSIDERING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 2 TO 3 MPH COULD HELP
PREVENT FOG FORMATION. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOG...AND SINCE
IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...KEPT PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SINCE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S OVER THE NORTH...TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA MIGHT BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA WILL BE WARMER. A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO NE
NORTH DAKOTA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL SET
UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN AND IF THE
CAP BREAKS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HELP
DEVELOP THE STORMS. THE SREF/NAM/GEM/GEMREG MODELS SEEMED A LITTLE
EXTENSIVE AND TOO FAR SOUTH WITH PCPN CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT...SO LEANED MORE ON THE NCEPWRF/GFS/ECMWF. THE
MODELS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...SO THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD
NOT LEAD TO MUCH MELTING OF ANY HAILSTONES.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MY WISCONSIN ZONES ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE BRINGS AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY AM.
TRENDED TOWARD CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ON POPS FOR THIS EVENT AND
LEANED ON A BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF. THIS
YIELDED RAIN TOTALS NEAR ONE-QUARTER INCH...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
REASONABLE START. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE WHILE
OTHERS A LITTLE LESS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH SUNDAY...RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING UPPER TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE ALONG MY NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY NORTH OF
A WALKER/AITKIN/DULUTH LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

BY MIDWEEK THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW YIELDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE DURING THAT PERIOD
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANGES TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAINLY VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH FOG
POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ON
FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES THE REGION. THERE
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS ACROSS HIB AND INL TAF SITES
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY WITH MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH THE SHOWERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  75  57  76 /  10  10   0   0
INL  53  79  60  80 /   0  40  40  10
BRD  60  76  56  80 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  72  55  77 /  20  20  10   0
ASX  57  75  55  74 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...STEWART




000
FXUS63 KDLH 272032
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LEAVING THE NORTHLAND IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO A SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE ENE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA OR FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
ASSOCIATED PCPN WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT
SOME OF THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF ITS RAIN COULD REACH NW WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EARLIER FORECASTS HAD THUNDER...BUT
REMOVED THIS CONSIDERING THE NAM/SREF/GFS/RAP INDICATE NEARLY NO
MUCAPE AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST A LOW THREAT
OF THIS FOG...AND NOT VERY CONFIDENT CONSIDERING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 2 TO 3 MPH COULD HELP
PREVENT FOG FORMATION. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOG...AND SINCE
IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...KEPT PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SINCE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S OVER THE NORTH...TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA MIGHT BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA WILL BE WARMER. A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO NE
NORTH DAKOTA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL SET
UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN AND IF THE
CAP BREAKS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HELP
DEVELOP THE STORMS. THE SREF/NAM/GEM/GEMREG MODELS SEEMED A LITTLE
EXTENSIVE AND TOO FAR SOUTH WITH PCPN CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT...SO LEANED MORE ON THE NCEPWRF/GFS/ECMWF. THE
MODELS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...SO THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD
NOT LEAD TO MUCH MELTING OF ANY HAILSTONES.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MY WISCONSIN ZONES ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE BRINGS AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY AM.
TRENDED TOWARD CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ON POPS FOR THIS EVENT AND
LEANED ON A BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF. THIS
YIELDED RAIN TOTALS NEAR ONE-QUARTER INCH...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
REASONABLE START. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE WHILE
OTHERS A LITTLE LESS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH SUNDAY...RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING UPPER TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE ALONG MY NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY NORTH OF
A WALKER/AITKIN/DULUTH LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

BY MIDWEEK THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW YIELDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE DURING THAT PERIOD
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANGES TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO NE MN/NW WI. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKY COVER
OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT. AM A
LITTLE ON THE FENCE REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. DO EXPECT
SOME FOG IN THE AREA...BUT WHETHER IT AFFECTS THE TERMINALS AND
HOW LOW VSBYS MAY DROP IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN BCFG NEAR DLH/HIB/INL WITH MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT BRD/HYR DUE
TO LOWER CIGS EXPECTED. EVEN SO...ONLY TOOK VSBYS DOWN INTO MVFR
RANGE. LATER UPDATES MAY LOWER VSBYS FARTHER AT THOSE SITES.
PASSING UPPER WAVE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INL BEFORE
28.18Z...BUT FELT CHANCE WAS TO LOW THIS AFTERNOON TO WARRANT
VCSH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  75  57  76 /  10  10   0   0
INL  53  79  60  80 /   0  40  40  10
BRD  60  76  56  80 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  72  55  77 /  20  20  10   0
ASX  57  75  55  74 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/HUYCK





000
FXUS63 KDLH 272032
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW...LEAVING THE NORTHLAND IN LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW. THERE
WILL BE INCREASING CLOUD OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA INTO
TONIGHT DUE TO A SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE NEBRASKA AND KANSAS BORDER IS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO THE ENE
THROUGH TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...PASSING THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA OR FAR
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. MOST OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
ASSOCIATED PCPN WILL PRIMARILY REMAIN SOUTH OF THE NORTHLAND...BUT
SOME OF THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF ITS RAIN COULD REACH NW WISCONSIN
LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. EARLIER FORECASTS HAD THUNDER...BUT
REMOVED THIS CONSIDERING THE NAM/SREF/GFS/RAP INDICATE NEARLY NO
MUCAPE AS FAR NORTH AS THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.
MODEL SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS SUGGEST A LOW THREAT
OF THIS FOG...AND NOT VERY CONFIDENT CONSIDERING INCREASING CLOUD
COVER AND THE EXPECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND 2 TO 3 MPH COULD HELP
PREVENT FOG FORMATION. THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD FOG...AND SINCE
IT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...KEPT PATCHY FOG FOR MOST OF THE
NORTHLAND. THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN
FORECAST AREA SINCE SKIES SHOULD BE CLEARER. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S OVER THE NORTH...TO
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S ELSEWHERE.

THE SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA MIGHT BE A LITTLE COOLER FRIDAY
BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PASSING THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST. HOWEVER...THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA WILL BE WARMER. A LOW IN SOUTHERN CANADA WILL MOVE INTO NE
NORTH DAKOTA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON...AND ITS WARM FRONT WILL SET
UP SOMEWHERE NEAR THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO INDICATE SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD DEVELOP NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
WARM FRONT LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING WHEN AND IF THE
CAP BREAKS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE MIGHT MOVE THROUGH THE AREA AND HELP
DEVELOP THE STORMS. THE SREF/NAM/GEM/GEMREG MODELS SEEMED A LITTLE
EXTENSIVE AND TOO FAR SOUTH WITH PCPN CONSIDERING THE PLACEMENT OF
THE WARM FRONT...SO LEANED MORE ON THE NCEPWRF/GFS/ECMWF. THE
MODELS AND SOUNDINGS INDICATE THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT CAPE AND
WIND SHEAR TO SUPPORT MORE ORGANIZED STORMS. THE GFS AND NAM
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL DUE TO THE SOMEWHAT
INVERTED V SOUNDINGS...SO THE DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS WOULD
NOT LEAD TO MUCH MELTING OF ANY HAILSTONES.

HIGHS ON FRIDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S AND LOW 70S
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH...TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEPARTING LOW TO THE SOUTH WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTION OF MY WISCONSIN ZONES ENDING BEFORE SUNRISE
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE NORTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCE BRINGS AN AREA
OF LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER THROUGH SATURDAY AM.
TRENDED TOWARD CONSENSUS GUIDANCE ON POPS FOR THIS EVENT AND
LEANED ON A BLEND OF CONSENSUS AND WPC GUIDANCE FOR QPF. THIS
YIELDED RAIN TOTALS NEAR ONE-QUARTER INCH...WHICH SEEMS TO BE A
REASONABLE START. SOME AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE WHILE
OTHERS A LITTLE LESS. RIDGING AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPS
WILL GRADUALLY TREND WARMER THROUGH SUNDAY...RUNNING AROUND 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

SURFACE RIDGING WILL SLIDE EAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MID-LEVEL
HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED IN RESPONSE TO A PASSING UPPER TROF
MOVING THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
PROGRESS EASTWARD OUT OF THE DAKOTAS OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
MOST FAVORED AREA FOR RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE ALONG MY NORTHERN ZONES
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS GENERALLY NORTH OF
A WALKER/AITKIN/DULUTH LINE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THIS PERIOD AS WELL.

BY MIDWEEK THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SITUATED OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES WILL LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FLOW YIELDING ANOTHER CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. CONFIDENCE DURING THAT PERIOD
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT CHANGES TO THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO NE MN/NW WI. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKY COVER
OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT. AM A
LITTLE ON THE FENCE REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. DO EXPECT
SOME FOG IN THE AREA...BUT WHETHER IT AFFECTS THE TERMINALS AND
HOW LOW VSBYS MAY DROP IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN BCFG NEAR DLH/HIB/INL WITH MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT BRD/HYR DUE
TO LOWER CIGS EXPECTED. EVEN SO...ONLY TOOK VSBYS DOWN INTO MVFR
RANGE. LATER UPDATES MAY LOWER VSBYS FARTHER AT THOSE SITES.
PASSING UPPER WAVE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INL BEFORE
28.18Z...BUT FELT CHANCE WAS TO LOW THIS AFTERNOON TO WARRANT
VCSH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  56  75  57  76 /  10  10   0   0
INL  53  79  60  80 /   0  40  40  10
BRD  60  76  56  80 /  10   0   0   0
HYR  58  72  55  77 /  20  20  10   0
ASX  57  75  55  74 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GROCHOCINSKI
LONG TERM...HUYCK
AVIATION...GROCHOCINSKI/HUYCK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 271729 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1229 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE COOL
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG BEFORE 9 AM. WILL
ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE INCOMING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NW
WI FRI MORNING...AND ACROSS THE NE MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK INFLUENCE FROM A MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL STILL
BE PRESENT ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND
ALLOW THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING...COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS AND A WEAK INVERSION ALOFT HAVE
ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. LOWER VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
VERY ISOLATED THIS MORNING...BUT LESS THAN 1 MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE BOTTOMED OUT MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 30S AND 40S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE
EAST INTO THE LOWER 50S.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME TODAY WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO FAR SRN MN/N-CENTRAL IA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN SD ACROSS SRN MN...AND
SLOWLY SPREAD E/NEWD FRIDAY MORNING. THE NWD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD WILL BE THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN NOT THE BEST OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STILL...EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE TWIN PORTS AND CONFINED TO AREAS OF NW WI DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW IN THE
AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE MIXED LAYER TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK STORMS ACROSS NERN
MN...NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. RAINFALL AMTS IN THE MORNING COULD REACH
A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH IN N-CENTRAL WI...WITH LESSER AMTS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. AREAS OF NE MN WILL ONLY SEE AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 50S...AND RISE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE 00Z ECMWF MAINTAINS THE NORTHERLY TRACK OF ITS SFC LOW COMPARED
TO THE OTHER MODELS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS A WAA/RETURN FLOW PATTERN BECOMING
ESTABLISHED IN THE LOWER 5K FT WHILE RIDGING PREVAILS ALOFT. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTEST WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO KOOCHICHING COUNTY
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. A BLEND RESULTED IN
SMALL POPS OVER KOOCHICHING COUNTY. WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WEST
OF THE AREA...LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. THE UPPER RIDGING
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A FAST SW FLOW OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE LARGE AND SO
IS THE HANDLING OF QPF. USED THE BLENDED APPROACH HERE FOR POPS AND
TEMPS. THE SW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A
STATIONARY LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EAST COAST...WHICH ALSO BECOMES
TANGLED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA. EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN THIS SW
FLOW WILL TRACK OVER THE REGION WARRANTING A POP MENTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO MIDDLE SUMMER VALUES WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 80S COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO NE MN/NW WI. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKY COVER
OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT. AM A
LITTLE ON THE FENCE REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. DO EXPECT
SOME FOG IN THE AREA...BUT WHETHER IT AFFECTS THE TERMINALS AND
HOW LOW VSBYS MAY DROP IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN BCFG NEAR DLH/HIB/INL WITH MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT BRD/HYR DUE
TO LOWER CIGS EXPECTED. EVEN SO...ONLY TOOK VSBYS DOWN INTO MVFR
RANGE. LATER UPDATES MAY LOWER VSBYS FARTHER AT THOSE SITES.
PASSING UPPER WAVE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INL BEFORE
28.18Z...BUT FELT CHANCE WAS TO LOW THIS AFTERNOON TO WARRANT
VCSH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  58  72  56 /   0  10  10  10
INL  77  55  80  59 /   0   0  30  50
BRD  74  58  76  56 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  74  58  70  54 /   0  20  30  20
ASX  76  58  73  55 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...HUYCK





000
FXUS63 KDLH 271729 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1229 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE COOL
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG BEFORE 9 AM. WILL
ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE INCOMING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NW
WI FRI MORNING...AND ACROSS THE NE MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK INFLUENCE FROM A MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL STILL
BE PRESENT ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND
ALLOW THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING...COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS AND A WEAK INVERSION ALOFT HAVE
ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. LOWER VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
VERY ISOLATED THIS MORNING...BUT LESS THAN 1 MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE BOTTOMED OUT MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 30S AND 40S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE
EAST INTO THE LOWER 50S.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME TODAY WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO FAR SRN MN/N-CENTRAL IA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN SD ACROSS SRN MN...AND
SLOWLY SPREAD E/NEWD FRIDAY MORNING. THE NWD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD WILL BE THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN NOT THE BEST OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STILL...EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE TWIN PORTS AND CONFINED TO AREAS OF NW WI DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW IN THE
AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE MIXED LAYER TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK STORMS ACROSS NERN
MN...NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. RAINFALL AMTS IN THE MORNING COULD REACH
A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH IN N-CENTRAL WI...WITH LESSER AMTS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. AREAS OF NE MN WILL ONLY SEE AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 50S...AND RISE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE 00Z ECMWF MAINTAINS THE NORTHERLY TRACK OF ITS SFC LOW COMPARED
TO THE OTHER MODELS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS A WAA/RETURN FLOW PATTERN BECOMING
ESTABLISHED IN THE LOWER 5K FT WHILE RIDGING PREVAILS ALOFT. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTEST WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO KOOCHICHING COUNTY
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. A BLEND RESULTED IN
SMALL POPS OVER KOOCHICHING COUNTY. WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WEST
OF THE AREA...LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. THE UPPER RIDGING
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A FAST SW FLOW OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE LARGE AND SO
IS THE HANDLING OF QPF. USED THE BLENDED APPROACH HERE FOR POPS AND
TEMPS. THE SW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A
STATIONARY LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EAST COAST...WHICH ALSO BECOMES
TANGLED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA. EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN THIS SW
FLOW WILL TRACK OVER THE REGION WARRANTING A POP MENTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO MIDDLE SUMMER VALUES WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 80S COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO NE MN/NW WI. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKY COVER
OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT. AM A
LITTLE ON THE FENCE REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. DO EXPECT
SOME FOG IN THE AREA...BUT WHETHER IT AFFECTS THE TERMINALS AND
HOW LOW VSBYS MAY DROP IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN BCFG NEAR DLH/HIB/INL WITH MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT BRD/HYR DUE
TO LOWER CIGS EXPECTED. EVEN SO...ONLY TOOK VSBYS DOWN INTO MVFR
RANGE. LATER UPDATES MAY LOWER VSBYS FARTHER AT THOSE SITES.
PASSING UPPER WAVE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INL BEFORE
28.18Z...BUT FELT CHANCE WAS TO LOW THIS AFTERNOON TO WARRANT
VCSH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  58  72  56 /   0  10  10  10
INL  77  55  80  59 /   0   0  30  50
BRD  74  58  76  56 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  74  58  70  54 /   0  20  30  20
ASX  76  58  73  55 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...HUYCK




000
FXUS63 KDLH 271729 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1229 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE COOL
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG BEFORE 9 AM. WILL
ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE INCOMING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NW
WI FRI MORNING...AND ACROSS THE NE MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK INFLUENCE FROM A MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL STILL
BE PRESENT ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND
ALLOW THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING...COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS AND A WEAK INVERSION ALOFT HAVE
ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. LOWER VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
VERY ISOLATED THIS MORNING...BUT LESS THAN 1 MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE BOTTOMED OUT MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 30S AND 40S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE
EAST INTO THE LOWER 50S.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME TODAY WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO FAR SRN MN/N-CENTRAL IA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN SD ACROSS SRN MN...AND
SLOWLY SPREAD E/NEWD FRIDAY MORNING. THE NWD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD WILL BE THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN NOT THE BEST OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STILL...EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE TWIN PORTS AND CONFINED TO AREAS OF NW WI DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW IN THE
AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE MIXED LAYER TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK STORMS ACROSS NERN
MN...NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. RAINFALL AMTS IN THE MORNING COULD REACH
A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH IN N-CENTRAL WI...WITH LESSER AMTS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. AREAS OF NE MN WILL ONLY SEE AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 50S...AND RISE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE 00Z ECMWF MAINTAINS THE NORTHERLY TRACK OF ITS SFC LOW COMPARED
TO THE OTHER MODELS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS A WAA/RETURN FLOW PATTERN BECOMING
ESTABLISHED IN THE LOWER 5K FT WHILE RIDGING PREVAILS ALOFT. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTEST WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO KOOCHICHING COUNTY
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. A BLEND RESULTED IN
SMALL POPS OVER KOOCHICHING COUNTY. WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WEST
OF THE AREA...LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. THE UPPER RIDGING
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A FAST SW FLOW OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE LARGE AND SO
IS THE HANDLING OF QPF. USED THE BLENDED APPROACH HERE FOR POPS AND
TEMPS. THE SW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A
STATIONARY LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EAST COAST...WHICH ALSO BECOMES
TANGLED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA. EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN THIS SW
FLOW WILL TRACK OVER THE REGION WARRANTING A POP MENTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO MIDDLE SUMMER VALUES WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 80S COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO NE MN/NW WI. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKY COVER
OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT. AM A
LITTLE ON THE FENCE REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. DO EXPECT
SOME FOG IN THE AREA...BUT WHETHER IT AFFECTS THE TERMINALS AND
HOW LOW VSBYS MAY DROP IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN BCFG NEAR DLH/HIB/INL WITH MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT BRD/HYR DUE
TO LOWER CIGS EXPECTED. EVEN SO...ONLY TOOK VSBYS DOWN INTO MVFR
RANGE. LATER UPDATES MAY LOWER VSBYS FARTHER AT THOSE SITES.
PASSING UPPER WAVE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INL BEFORE
28.18Z...BUT FELT CHANCE WAS TO LOW THIS AFTERNOON TO WARRANT
VCSH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  58  72  56 /   0  10  10  10
INL  77  55  80  59 /   0   0  30  50
BRD  74  58  76  56 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  74  58  70  54 /   0  20  30  20
ASX  76  58  73  55 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...HUYCK





000
FXUS63 KDLH 271729 AAB
AFDDLH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
1229 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

UPDATED 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW...

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM REMAIN FOCUSED AROUND THE COOL
TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING ALONG WITH PATCHY FOG BEFORE 9 AM. WILL
ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE INCOMING POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS LATE TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY...MAINLY OVER PORTIONS OF NW
WI FRI MORNING...AND ACROSS THE NE MN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

SURFACE RIDGE AND WEAK INFLUENCE FROM A MID-LEVEL HIGH WILL STILL
BE PRESENT ACROSS THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHLAND TODAY...AND
ALLOW THE AREA TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE DAY. THE CLEAR SKIES THIS
MORNING...COMBINED WITH CALM WINDS AND A WEAK INVERSION ALOFT HAVE
ALLOWED FOR PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP. LOWER VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
VERY ISOLATED THIS MORNING...BUT LESS THAN 1 MILE IN SOME
LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING HAVE BOTTOMED OUT MOSTLY IN
THE UPPER 30S AND 40S...WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER CONDITIONS TO THE
EAST INTO THE LOWER 50S.

MUCH OF THE REGION WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME TODAY WITH A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S OVER THE ENTIRE
REGION.

TONIGHT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA
INTO FAR SRN MN/N-CENTRAL IA. AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW WILL MOVE FROM ERN SD ACROSS SRN MN...AND
SLOWLY SPREAD E/NEWD FRIDAY MORNING. THE NWD EXTENT OF THE PRECIP
SHIELD WILL BE THE CHALLENGE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS BEEN NOT THE BEST OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.
STILL...EXPECTING THE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS TO REMAIN SOUTH
OF THE TWIN PORTS AND CONFINED TO AREAS OF NW WI DURING THE
MORNING HOURS. A SECONDARY FRONT WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NW IN THE
AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE MIXED LAYER TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK STORMS ACROSS NERN
MN...NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. RAINFALL AMTS IN THE MORNING COULD REACH
A QUARTER TO HALF AN INCH IN N-CENTRAL WI...WITH LESSER AMTS TO
THE NORTH AND WEST. AREAS OF NE MN WILL ONLY SEE AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH OR SO.

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE 50S...AND RISE DURING
THE DAY FRIDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 230 AM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

THE 00Z ECMWF MAINTAINS THE NORTHERLY TRACK OF ITS SFC LOW COMPARED
TO THE OTHER MODELS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE...IMPULSES EMBEDDED
IN NW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL GENERATE SOME
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...UPPER LEVEL AND SFC
RIDGING WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION. THIS RIDGING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT FINDS A WAA/RETURN FLOW PATTERN BECOMING
ESTABLISHED IN THE LOWER 5K FT WHILE RIDGING PREVAILS ALOFT. THE
ECMWF IS THE FASTEST WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN INTO KOOCHICHING COUNTY
SUNDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE OTHER MODELS ARE DRY. A BLEND RESULTED IN
SMALL POPS OVER KOOCHICHING COUNTY. WITH THE INSTABILITY AXIS WEST
OF THE AREA...LEFT OUT THE MENTION OF THUNDER. THE UPPER RIDGING
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A FAST SW FLOW OVER THE
REGION ON MONDAY. THERMAL PROFILE DIFFERENCES ARE QUITE LARGE AND SO
IS THE HANDLING OF QPF. USED THE BLENDED APPROACH HERE FOR POPS AND
TEMPS. THE SW FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY DUE TO A
STATIONARY LONG WAVE TROF OVER THE EAST COAST...WHICH ALSO BECOMES
TANGLED WITH TROPICAL SYSTEM ERIKA. EMBEDDED IMPULSES IN THIS SW
FLOW WILL TRACK OVER THE REGION WARRANTING A POP MENTION.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP TO MIDDLE SUMMER VALUES WITH MAX
TEMPS IN THE 80S COMMON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015

DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER NEBRASKA WILL MOVE EASTWARD THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WAS LIFTING
NORTHWARD INTO NE MN/NW WI. EXPECT SCATTERED TO BROKEN SKY COVER
OVER THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A RESULT. AM A
LITTLE ON THE FENCE REGARDING FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT. DO EXPECT
SOME FOG IN THE AREA...BUT WHETHER IT AFFECTS THE TERMINALS AND
HOW LOW VSBYS MAY DROP IS STILL UNCERTAIN. HAVE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE
IN BCFG NEAR DLH/HIB/INL WITH MUCH LOWER CONFIDENCE AT BRD/HYR DUE
TO LOWER CIGS EXPECTED. EVEN SO...ONLY TOOK VSBYS DOWN INTO MVFR
RANGE. LATER UPDATES MAY LOWER VSBYS FARTHER AT THOSE SITES.
PASSING UPPER WAVE MAY RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS NORTH OF INL BEFORE
28.18Z...BUT FELT CHANCE WAS TO LOW THIS AFTERNOON TO WARRANT
VCSH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DLH  73  58  72  56 /   0  10  10  10
INL  77  55  80  59 /   0   0  30  50
BRD  74  58  76  56 /   0  10  10  10
HYR  74  58  70  54 /   0  20  30  20
ASX  76  58  73  55 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
LS...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TENTINGER
LONG TERM...GSF
AVIATION...HUYCK




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