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000
FXUS63 KDMX 091718
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1118 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA...AND EXPECT
THEM TO SLOWLY WANE THROUGH MID MORNING AS WE LOSE SATURATION IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND IT BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. ADDITIONALLY WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUSTY
WINDS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MIXED LAYER WINDS
DO DIMINISH SOME THROUGH THE DAY...SO EXPECT BLOWING SNOW
CONDITIONS TO EASE WITH TIME ESPECIALLY TOWARD LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAJORITY OF OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AM AROUND 3-5 MILES IN THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW
COVER...THEREFORE EXPECT MORE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER
OF BLOWING SNOW NEAR THE GROUND THAN THE CONDITIONS PRESENT MONDAY
WHERE THERE WAS A WIDESPREAD DEEPER LAYER OF BLOWING SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY LOW STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND CLEAR OUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE GUSTINESS GOING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS AROUND
SUNSET WHEN THEY DECOUPLE.

THEREFORE WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES STILL PRESENT WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA
WHERE ROAD CONDITIONS STILL LISTED AS NO TRAVEL ADVISED IN MANY
PLACES. WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVING ENDED IN THAT
AREA FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE LONG
TERM FORECAST REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY COOL WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL.

THERE IS NOW BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE PASSAGE OF A SMALL AND SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF IOWA
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THAT TIME AND AREA...HOWEVER...THE QUICK
TRANSITION OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...COMBINED
WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
DRAPED ACROSS IOWA...WILL KEEP THE SNOW LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT
AS THERE WILL BE ALMOST NO WIND ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MEANWHILE
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
COMPLICATED BY THE RADIATIVE CONDUCIVENESS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MITIGATED BY AN UNCERTAIN EXTENT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...SO HAVE STUCK
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GUIDANCE FOR NOW.

ANOTHER...SIMILARLY SMALL AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE SENSIBLE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE QUITE DIFFERENT OWING TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL/SURFACE FEATURES
LATE IN THE WEEK. NAMELY...ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NEBRASKA WHILE A LARGE AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BARRELING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CANADIAN PLAINS. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS...ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE FORCING ALOFT AND PRODUCE A SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING
THE LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES WITHIN THIS TYPE OF STEERING FLOW
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SNOW MAY
FALL IN OUR AREA VERSUS ADJACENT STATES TO THE NORTH AND EAST. IN
ANY EVENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY AS
ONCE AGAIN THE PARENT SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY...HOWEVER IF
THE SNOW FALLS IN OUR AREA IT MAY HAVE MORE IMPACT AS FRIDAY WILL
BE QUITE BREEZY WITH THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA
SPILLING QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SNOW OCCURS...THIS WILL MAKE FOR COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE WEEKEND AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND OF
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

FINALLY...THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR WARMING
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON
BRINGING A LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. AT THIS RANGE THESE SOLUTIONS ARE
VOLATILE AND DETAILS UNCLEAR...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS
WILL BE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION SYSTEM AFFECTING IOWA WITHIN THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...09/18Z
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR STRATUS LOOKS TO AFFECT ALO/OTM OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
SOME FLURRIES FALLING AT OTM. MCW REPORTING FALSE CEILINGS AS MUCH
OF THE WEB CAMERAS AND IDOT PLOW CAMERAS...AND PER VISIBLESATELLITE
REMAINS CLEAR. SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MIGHT SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR VIS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND LEFT OUT MENTION ATTM AT MCW. OTHERWISE...WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE STATE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT AT
OTM/ALO AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 091718
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1118 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA...AND EXPECT
THEM TO SLOWLY WANE THROUGH MID MORNING AS WE LOSE SATURATION IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND IT BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. ADDITIONALLY WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUSTY
WINDS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MIXED LAYER WINDS
DO DIMINISH SOME THROUGH THE DAY...SO EXPECT BLOWING SNOW
CONDITIONS TO EASE WITH TIME ESPECIALLY TOWARD LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAJORITY OF OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AM AROUND 3-5 MILES IN THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW
COVER...THEREFORE EXPECT MORE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER
OF BLOWING SNOW NEAR THE GROUND THAN THE CONDITIONS PRESENT MONDAY
WHERE THERE WAS A WIDESPREAD DEEPER LAYER OF BLOWING SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY LOW STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND CLEAR OUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE GUSTINESS GOING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS AROUND
SUNSET WHEN THEY DECOUPLE.

THEREFORE WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES STILL PRESENT WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA
WHERE ROAD CONDITIONS STILL LISTED AS NO TRAVEL ADVISED IN MANY
PLACES. WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVING ENDED IN THAT
AREA FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE LONG
TERM FORECAST REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY COOL WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL.

THERE IS NOW BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE PASSAGE OF A SMALL AND SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF IOWA
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THAT TIME AND AREA...HOWEVER...THE QUICK
TRANSITION OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...COMBINED
WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
DRAPED ACROSS IOWA...WILL KEEP THE SNOW LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT
AS THERE WILL BE ALMOST NO WIND ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MEANWHILE
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
COMPLICATED BY THE RADIATIVE CONDUCIVENESS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MITIGATED BY AN UNCERTAIN EXTENT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...SO HAVE STUCK
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GUIDANCE FOR NOW.

ANOTHER...SIMILARLY SMALL AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE SENSIBLE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE QUITE DIFFERENT OWING TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL/SURFACE FEATURES
LATE IN THE WEEK. NAMELY...ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NEBRASKA WHILE A LARGE AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BARRELING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CANADIAN PLAINS. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS...ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE FORCING ALOFT AND PRODUCE A SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING
THE LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES WITHIN THIS TYPE OF STEERING FLOW
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SNOW MAY
FALL IN OUR AREA VERSUS ADJACENT STATES TO THE NORTH AND EAST. IN
ANY EVENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY AS
ONCE AGAIN THE PARENT SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY...HOWEVER IF
THE SNOW FALLS IN OUR AREA IT MAY HAVE MORE IMPACT AS FRIDAY WILL
BE QUITE BREEZY WITH THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA
SPILLING QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SNOW OCCURS...THIS WILL MAKE FOR COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE WEEKEND AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND OF
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

FINALLY...THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR WARMING
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON
BRINGING A LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. AT THIS RANGE THESE SOLUTIONS ARE
VOLATILE AND DETAILS UNCLEAR...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS
WILL BE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION SYSTEM AFFECTING IOWA WITHIN THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...09/18Z
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR STRATUS LOOKS TO AFFECT ALO/OTM OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
SOME FLURRIES FALLING AT OTM. MCW REPORTING FALSE CEILINGS AS MUCH
OF THE WEB CAMERAS AND IDOT PLOW CAMERAS...AND PER VISIBLESATELLITE
REMAINS CLEAR. SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MIGHT SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR VIS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND LEFT OUT MENTION ATTM AT MCW. OTHERWISE...WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE STATE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT AT
OTM/ALO AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 091718
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1118 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA...AND EXPECT
THEM TO SLOWLY WANE THROUGH MID MORNING AS WE LOSE SATURATION IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND IT BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. ADDITIONALLY WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUSTY
WINDS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MIXED LAYER WINDS
DO DIMINISH SOME THROUGH THE DAY...SO EXPECT BLOWING SNOW
CONDITIONS TO EASE WITH TIME ESPECIALLY TOWARD LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAJORITY OF OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AM AROUND 3-5 MILES IN THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW
COVER...THEREFORE EXPECT MORE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER
OF BLOWING SNOW NEAR THE GROUND THAN THE CONDITIONS PRESENT MONDAY
WHERE THERE WAS A WIDESPREAD DEEPER LAYER OF BLOWING SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY LOW STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND CLEAR OUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE GUSTINESS GOING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS AROUND
SUNSET WHEN THEY DECOUPLE.

THEREFORE WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES STILL PRESENT WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA
WHERE ROAD CONDITIONS STILL LISTED AS NO TRAVEL ADVISED IN MANY
PLACES. WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVING ENDED IN THAT
AREA FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE LONG
TERM FORECAST REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY COOL WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL.

THERE IS NOW BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE PASSAGE OF A SMALL AND SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF IOWA
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THAT TIME AND AREA...HOWEVER...THE QUICK
TRANSITION OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...COMBINED
WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
DRAPED ACROSS IOWA...WILL KEEP THE SNOW LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT
AS THERE WILL BE ALMOST NO WIND ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MEANWHILE
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
COMPLICATED BY THE RADIATIVE CONDUCIVENESS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MITIGATED BY AN UNCERTAIN EXTENT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...SO HAVE STUCK
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GUIDANCE FOR NOW.

ANOTHER...SIMILARLY SMALL AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE SENSIBLE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE QUITE DIFFERENT OWING TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL/SURFACE FEATURES
LATE IN THE WEEK. NAMELY...ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NEBRASKA WHILE A LARGE AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BARRELING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CANADIAN PLAINS. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS...ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE FORCING ALOFT AND PRODUCE A SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING
THE LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES WITHIN THIS TYPE OF STEERING FLOW
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SNOW MAY
FALL IN OUR AREA VERSUS ADJACENT STATES TO THE NORTH AND EAST. IN
ANY EVENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY AS
ONCE AGAIN THE PARENT SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY...HOWEVER IF
THE SNOW FALLS IN OUR AREA IT MAY HAVE MORE IMPACT AS FRIDAY WILL
BE QUITE BREEZY WITH THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA
SPILLING QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SNOW OCCURS...THIS WILL MAKE FOR COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE WEEKEND AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND OF
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

FINALLY...THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR WARMING
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON
BRINGING A LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. AT THIS RANGE THESE SOLUTIONS ARE
VOLATILE AND DETAILS UNCLEAR...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS
WILL BE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION SYSTEM AFFECTING IOWA WITHIN THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...09/18Z
ISSUED AT 1115 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

MVFR STRATUS LOOKS TO AFFECT ALO/OTM OVER NEXT COUPLE HOURS WITH
SOME FLURRIES FALLING AT OTM. MCW REPORTING FALSE CEILINGS AS MUCH
OF THE WEB CAMERAS AND IDOT PLOW CAMERAS...AND PER VISIBLESATELLITE
REMAINS CLEAR. SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...MIGHT SEE SOME BRIEF MVFR VIS BUT LOW CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING AND LEFT OUT MENTION ATTM AT MCW. OTHERWISE...WINDS FINALLY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE STATE. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD EXCEPT AT
OTM/ALO AS MENTIONED ABOVE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 091137
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
537 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA...AND EXPECT
THEM TO SLOWLY WANE THROUGH MID MORNING AS WE LOSE SATURATION IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND IT BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. ADDITIONALLY WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUSTY
WINDS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MIXED LAYER WINDS
DO DIMINISH SOME THROUGH THE DAY...SO EXPECT BLOWING SNOW
CONDITIONS TO EASE WITH TIME ESPECIALLY TOWARD LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAJORITY OF OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AM AROUND 3-5 MILES IN THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW
COVER...THEREFORE EXPECT MORE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER
OF BLOWING SNOW NEAR THE GROUND THAN THE CONDITIONS PRESENT MONDAY
WHERE THERE WAS A WIDESPREAD DEEPER LAYER OF BLOWING SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY LOW STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND CLEAR OUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE GUSTINESS GOING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS AROUND
SUNSET WHEN THEY DECOUPLE.

THEREFORE WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES STILL PRESENT WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA
WHERE ROAD CONDITIONS STILL LISTED AS NO TRAVEL ADVISED IN MANY
PLACES. WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVING ENDED IN THAT
AREA FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE LONG
TERM FORECAST REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY COOL WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL.

THERE IS NOW BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE PASSAGE OF A SMALL AND SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF IOWA
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THAT TIME AND AREA...HOWEVER...THE QUICK
TRANSITION OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...COMBINED
WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
DRAPED ACROSS IOWA...WILL KEEP THE SNOW LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT
AS THERE WILL BE ALMOST NO WIND ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MEANWHILE
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
COMPLICATED BY THE RADIATIVE CONDUCIVENESS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MITIGATED BY AN UNCERTAIN EXTENT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...SO HAVE STUCK
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GUIDANCE FOR NOW.

ANOTHER...SIMILARLY SMALL AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE SENSIBLE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE QUITE DIFFERENT OWING TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL/SURFACE FEATURES
LATE IN THE WEEK. NAMELY...ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NEBRASKA WHILE A LARGE AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BARRELING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CANADIAN PLAINS. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS...ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE FORCING ALOFT AND PRODUCE A SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING
THE LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES WITHIN THIS TYPE OF STEERING FLOW
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SNOW MAY
FALL IN OUR AREA VERSUS ADJACENT STATES TO THE NORTH AND EAST. IN
ANY EVENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY AS
ONCE AGAIN THE PARENT SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY...HOWEVER IF
THE SNOW FALLS IN OUR AREA IT MAY HAVE MORE IMPACT AS FRIDAY WILL
BE QUITE BREEZY WITH THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA
SPILLING QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SNOW OCCURS...THIS WILL MAKE FOR COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE WEEKEND AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND OF
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

FINALLY...THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR WARMING
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON
BRINGING A LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. AT THIS RANGE THESE SOLUTIONS ARE
VOLATILE AND DETAILS UNCLEAR...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS
WILL BE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION SYSTEM AFFECTING IOWA WITHIN THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...09/12Z
ISSUED AT 537 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRATUS SEEMS TO BE LIFTING WITH SOME LOW SPOTS STILL AROUND.
MAINLY SHOULD SEE HIGHER MVFR TO VFR STRATUS THIS MORNING...WITH
THE CLOUDS BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE DAY...TO LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS THIS EVENING AND DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT. SOME VSBY
RESTRICTIONS STILL THROUGH THE DAY WITH SHALLOW BLSN AND POSSIBLE
STILL SOME FLURRIES THIS AM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BOONE-
CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 090922
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
322 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

STILL HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA...AND EXPECT
THEM TO SLOWLY WANE THROUGH MID MORNING AS WE LOSE SATURATION IN
THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND IT BECOMES MORE SHALLOW. ADDITIONALLY WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE CWA...WITH SOUNDINGS INDICATING GUSTY
WINDS TO STICK AROUND THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. MIXED LAYER WINDS
DO DIMINISH SOME THROUGH THE DAY...SO EXPECT BLOWING SNOW
CONDITIONS TO EASE WITH TIME ESPECIALLY TOWARD LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MAJORITY OF OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE CWA THIS
AM AROUND 3-5 MILES IN THE AREAS WITH DEEPER SNOW
COVER...THEREFORE EXPECT MORE DRIFTING OF SNOW AND A SHALLOW LAYER
OF BLOWING SNOW NEAR THE GROUND THAN THE CONDITIONS PRESENT MONDAY
WHERE THERE WAS A WIDESPREAD DEEPER LAYER OF BLOWING SNOW.
ADDITIONALLY LOW STRATUS SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK UP AND CLEAR OUT BY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY
LATE IN THE DAY. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE GUSTINESS GOING THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOSE THEIR GUSTINESS AROUND
SUNSET WHEN THEY DECOUPLE.

THEREFORE WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MORNING...AND SOME LIGHT SNOW FLURRIES STILL PRESENT WILL EXTEND
THE ADVISORY THROUGH THE MORNING COMMUTE IN NORTH CENTRAL IOWA
WHERE ROAD CONDITIONS STILL LISTED AS NO TRAVEL ADVISED IN MANY
PLACES. WILL ALLOW THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE ADVISORY TO EXPIRE
WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVING ENDED IN THAT
AREA FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CST TUE FEB 9 2016

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN OVERALL FORECAST THINKING TONIGHT. THE LONG
TERM FORECAST REMAINS CHARACTERIZED BY CYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH SATURDAY...RESULTING IN GENERALLY COOL WEATHER AND
INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOWFALL.

THERE IS NOW BETTER CONSENSUS ON THE PASSAGE OF A SMALL AND SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH IS LIKELY TO SPREAD
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF IOWA
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIALLY FOR THAT TIME AND AREA...HOWEVER...THE QUICK
TRANSITION OF THE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE...COMBINED
WITH DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT DUE TO A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER
DRAPED ACROSS IOWA...WILL KEEP THE SNOW LIGHT AND OF LITTLE IMPACT
AS THERE WILL BE ALMOST NO WIND ASSOCIATED WITH IT. MEANWHILE
MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES ON BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE
COMPLICATED BY THE RADIATIVE CONDUCIVENESS OF THE HIGH PRESSURE
CENTER MITIGATED BY AN UNCERTAIN EXTENT OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM...SO HAVE STUCK
CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND GUIDANCE FOR NOW.

ANOTHER...SIMILARLY SMALL AND SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
AROUND FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE SENSIBLE EFFECTS OF THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE QUITE DIFFERENT OWING TO STRONGER LOW LEVEL/SURFACE FEATURES
LATE IN THE WEEK. NAMELY...ON THURSDAY NIGHT A WEAK SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DRIFTING ACROSS NEBRASKA WHILE A LARGE AND
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IS BARRELING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
CANADIAN PLAINS. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING BETWEEN THE TWO
SYSTEMS...ON THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE SURFACE LOW...WILL BE
COINCIDENT WITH THE SHORTWAVE FORCING ALOFT AND PRODUCE A SOMEWHAT
HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL FROM THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE DIFFICULTY IN PREDICTING
THE LOCATION OF THESE FEATURES WITHIN THIS TYPE OF STEERING FLOW
SEVERAL DAYS OUT...IT REMAINS UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH OF THIS SNOW MAY
FALL IN OUR AREA VERSUS ADJACENT STATES TO THE NORTH AND EAST. IN
ANY EVENT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD NOT BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY AS
ONCE AGAIN THE PARENT SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY...HOWEVER IF
THE SNOW FALLS IN OUR AREA IT MAY HAVE MORE IMPACT AS FRIDAY WILL
BE QUITE BREEZY WITH THE LARGE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE AREA
SPILLING QUICKLY DOWN ACROSS THE MIDWEST. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER
THE SNOW OCCURS...THIS WILL MAKE FOR COLD AND BLUSTERY WEATHER TO
BEGIN THE WEEKEND AND HAVE CONTINUED THE DOWNWARD TREND OF
FORECAST TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

FINALLY...THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFF TO THE
EAST LATER IN THE WEEKEND ALLOWING FOR WARMING
TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN AGREEMENT ON
BRINGING A LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS OUR REGION AROUND
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION. AT THIS RANGE THESE SOLUTIONS ARE
VOLATILE AND DETAILS UNCLEAR...BUT IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS
WILL BE THE HIGHEST PRECIPITATION SYSTEM AFFECTING IOWA WITHIN THE
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...09/06Z
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR CIGS AND LOWER VSBY ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z MOST SITES. GRADUALLY AFT 15Z WILL SEE OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WITH WINDS REMAINING NW 15-25KT THROUGH 00Z
WED. BACK EDGE OF STRATUS MAY EDGE EAST TOWARD KDSM BY 12-15Z.
/REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR BOONE-
CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-
STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 090533
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1133 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE ALLOWED BZ.W AND PORTIONS OF THE WW.Y TO EXPIRE. CONDITIONS
REMAIN POOR OVER A GOOD SHARE OF THE LINGERING WW.Y WITH
INTERSTATE 35 NOW CLOSED FROM NEAR AMES TO CLEAR LAKE. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN. AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT THAT AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING WITH LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND TRENDS. STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE BACK OF LARGE GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED PV TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO
IA THERE IS NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OF NOTE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STEADY-STATE NEUTRAL TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS IA AS THE BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY OOZES EASTWARD. WEAK BANDED SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PERSISTENT MIXING TO JUST SHY OF 1KM INTO
THE EVENING. THUS EXPECT AREAS OF FLURRIES AND WEAK SNOW SHOWER
BANDING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE TRIVIAL...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH ONLY A
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE. IDOT PLOW CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
TIME AND SPACE RANGING FROM DECENT VISIBILITY TO NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES...AND I35 SB REMAINS CLOSED FROM
CLEAR LAKE TO AMES. THUS EXPECT A BLIZZARD WARNING TO NO LONGER BE
NEEDED INTO THE EVENING...BUT BLOWING SNOW AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES SHY OF CRITERIA TO REMAIN A PROBLEM INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. DO NOT WANT TO
GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WIND...SIMILAR MIXING TO JUST UNDER 1KM
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIODS SO STAYED TOWARD RAW MODEL
NUMBERS AND A BLEND OF MOS OR JUST ABOVE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOCUS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WAS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES BUT DIFFER
SOME WITH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE NAM/GFS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DECOUPLE BY AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.
FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH THE STRONG CAA IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLAKES TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA. PLUS MIXING TO AROUND
900MB SEEMS REASONABLE MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND CAN EXPECT
SOME BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES IN NORTHERN IOWA. FURTHER
SOUTH...WINDS PERSIST BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES AND ANY
BLOWING SNOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE COMPLETELY.
EXPECT SOME BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO A HEADLINE. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS...QPF...AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED AND
LACKING SIGNIFICANT FORCING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A HALF TO NEAR
AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND FORCING.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER AND EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS REMAINS DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...09/06Z
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR CIGS AND LOWER VISBY ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z MOST SITES. GRADUALLY AFT 15Z WILL SEE OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WITH WINDS REMAINING NW 15-25KT THROUGH 00Z
WED. BACK EDGE OF STRATUS MAY EDGE EAST TOWARD KDSM BY 12-15Z./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BOONE-CALHOUN-
CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-
WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 090533
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1133 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE ALLOWED BZ.W AND PORTIONS OF THE WW.Y TO EXPIRE. CONDITIONS
REMAIN POOR OVER A GOOD SHARE OF THE LINGERING WW.Y WITH
INTERSTATE 35 NOW CLOSED FROM NEAR AMES TO CLEAR LAKE. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN. AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT THAT AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING WITH LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND TRENDS. STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE BACK OF LARGE GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED PV TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO
IA THERE IS NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OF NOTE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STEADY-STATE NEUTRAL TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS IA AS THE BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY OOZES EASTWARD. WEAK BANDED SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PERSISTENT MIXING TO JUST SHY OF 1KM INTO
THE EVENING. THUS EXPECT AREAS OF FLURRIES AND WEAK SNOW SHOWER
BANDING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE TRIVIAL...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH ONLY A
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE. IDOT PLOW CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
TIME AND SPACE RANGING FROM DECENT VISIBILITY TO NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES...AND I35 SB REMAINS CLOSED FROM
CLEAR LAKE TO AMES. THUS EXPECT A BLIZZARD WARNING TO NO LONGER BE
NEEDED INTO THE EVENING...BUT BLOWING SNOW AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES SHY OF CRITERIA TO REMAIN A PROBLEM INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. DO NOT WANT TO
GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WIND...SIMILAR MIXING TO JUST UNDER 1KM
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIODS SO STAYED TOWARD RAW MODEL
NUMBERS AND A BLEND OF MOS OR JUST ABOVE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOCUS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WAS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES BUT DIFFER
SOME WITH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE NAM/GFS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DECOUPLE BY AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.
FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH THE STRONG CAA IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLAKES TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA. PLUS MIXING TO AROUND
900MB SEEMS REASONABLE MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND CAN EXPECT
SOME BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES IN NORTHERN IOWA. FURTHER
SOUTH...WINDS PERSIST BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES AND ANY
BLOWING SNOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE COMPLETELY.
EXPECT SOME BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO A HEADLINE. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS...QPF...AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED AND
LACKING SIGNIFICANT FORCING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A HALF TO NEAR
AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND FORCING.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER AND EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS REMAINS DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...09/06Z
ISSUED AT 1132 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MVFR CIGS AND LOWER VISBY ALONG WITH STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH ABOUT 15Z MOST SITES. GRADUALLY AFT 15Z WILL SEE OVERALL
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS WITH WINDS REMAINING NW 15-25KT THROUGH 00Z
WED. BACK EDGE OF STRATUS MAY EDGE EAST TOWARD KDSM BY 12-15Z./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CST TUESDAY FOR BOONE-CALHOUN-
CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-
WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 090019
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
619 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 619 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

HAVE ALLOWED BZ.W AND PORTIONS OF THE WW.Y TO EXPIRE. CONDITIONS
REMAIN POOR OVER A GOOD SHARE OF THE LINGERING WW.Y WITH
INTERSTATE 35 NOW CLOSED FROM NEAR AMES TO CLEAR LAKE. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE...BUT SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN. AREA OF LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS SOUTHEAST WILL BRIEFLY IMPACT THAT AREA FOR SEVERAL
HOURS THIS EVENING WITH LESSER IMPACTS EXPECTED THERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND TRENDS. STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE BACK OF LARGE GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED PV TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO
IA THERE IS NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OF NOTE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STEADY-STATE NEUTRAL TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS IA AS THE BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY OOZES EASTWARD. WEAK BANDED SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PERSISTENT MIXING TO JUST SHY OF 1KM INTO
THE EVENING. THUS EXPECT AREAS OF FLURRIES AND WEAK SNOW SHOWER
BANDING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE TRIVIAL...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH ONLY A
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE. IDOT PLOW CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
TIME AND SPACE RANGING FROM DECENT VISIBILITY TO NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES...AND I35 SB REMAINS CLOSED FROM
CLEAR LAKE TO AMES. THUS EXPECT A BLIZZARD WARNING TO NO LONGER BE
NEEDED INTO THE EVENING...BUT BLOWING SNOW AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES SHY OF CRITERIA TO REMAIN A PROBLEM INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. DO NOT WANT TO
GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WIND...SIMILAR MIXING TO JUST UNDER 1KM
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIODS SO STAYED TOWARD RAW MODEL
NUMBERS AND A BLEND OF MOS OR JUST ABOVE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOCUS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WAS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES BUT DIFFER
SOME WITH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE NAM/GFS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DECOUPLE BY AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.
FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH THE STRONG CAA IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLAKES TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA. PLUS MIXING TO AROUND
900MB SEEMS REASONABLE MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND CAN EXPECT
SOME BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES IN NORTHERN IOWA. FURTHER
SOUTH...WINDS PERSIST BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES AND ANY
BLOWING SNOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE COMPLETELY.
EXPECT SOME BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO A HEADLINE. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS...QPF...AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED AND
LACKING SIGNIFICANT FORCING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A HALF TO NEAR
AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND FORCING.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER AND EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS REMAINS DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...09/00Z
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUE MOST AREAS. WITH SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING...CIGS WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KTS. AFT
15Z TUESDAY...CIGS WILL BECOME VFR. FAR WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING
MAY SEE VFR RETURN BY 06Z. WILL MONITOR FOR UPDATES. /REV


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BOONE-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 082347
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND TRENDS. STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE BACK OF LARGE GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED PV TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO
IA THERE IS NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OF NOTE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STEADY-STATE NEUTRAL TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS IA AS THE BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY OOZES EASTWARD. WEAK BANDED SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PERSISTENT MIXING TO JUST SHY OF 1KM INTO
THE EVENING. THUS EXPECT AREAS OF FLURRIES AND WEAK SNOW SHOWER
BANDING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE TRIVIAL...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH ONLY A
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE. IDOT PLOW CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
TIME AND SPACE RANGING FROM DECENT VISIBILITY TO NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES...AND I35 SB REMAINS CLOSED FROM
CLEAR LAKE TO AMES. THUS EXPECT A BLIZZARD WARNING TO NO LONGER BE
NEEDED INTO THE EVENING...BUT BLOWING SNOW AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES SHY OF CRITERIA TO REMAIN A PROBLEM INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. DO NOT WANT TO
GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WIND...SIMILAR MIXING TO JUST UNDER 1KM
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIODS SO STAYED TOWARD RAW MODEL
NUMBERS AND A BLEND OF MOS OR JUST ABOVE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOCUS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WAS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES BUT DIFFER
SOME WITH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE NAM/GFS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DECOUPLE BY AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.
FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH THE STRONG CAA IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLAKES TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA. PLUS MIXING TO AROUND
900MB SEEMS REASONABLE MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND CAN EXPECT
SOME BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES IN NORTHERN IOWA. FURTHER
SOUTH...WINDS PERSIST BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES AND ANY
BLOWING SNOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE COMPLETELY.
EXPECT SOME BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO A HEADLINE. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS...QPF...AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED AND
LACKING SIGNIFICANT FORCING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A HALF TO NEAR
AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND FORCING.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER AND EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS REMAINS DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...09/00Z
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUE MOST AREAS. WITH SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING...CIGS WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KTS. AFT
15Z TUESDAY...CIGS WILL BECOME VFR. FAR WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING
MAY SEE VFR RETURN BY 06Z. WILL MONITOR FOR UPDATES. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-
TAYLOR-UNION.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BOONE-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR STORY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 082347
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND TRENDS. STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE BACK OF LARGE GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED PV TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO
IA THERE IS NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OF NOTE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STEADY-STATE NEUTRAL TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS IA AS THE BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY OOZES EASTWARD. WEAK BANDED SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PERSISTENT MIXING TO JUST SHY OF 1KM INTO
THE EVENING. THUS EXPECT AREAS OF FLURRIES AND WEAK SNOW SHOWER
BANDING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE TRIVIAL...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH ONLY A
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE. IDOT PLOW CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
TIME AND SPACE RANGING FROM DECENT VISIBILITY TO NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES...AND I35 SB REMAINS CLOSED FROM
CLEAR LAKE TO AMES. THUS EXPECT A BLIZZARD WARNING TO NO LONGER BE
NEEDED INTO THE EVENING...BUT BLOWING SNOW AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES SHY OF CRITERIA TO REMAIN A PROBLEM INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. DO NOT WANT TO
GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WIND...SIMILAR MIXING TO JUST UNDER 1KM
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIODS SO STAYED TOWARD RAW MODEL
NUMBERS AND A BLEND OF MOS OR JUST ABOVE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOCUS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WAS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES BUT DIFFER
SOME WITH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE NAM/GFS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DECOUPLE BY AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.
FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH THE STRONG CAA IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLAKES TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA. PLUS MIXING TO AROUND
900MB SEEMS REASONABLE MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND CAN EXPECT
SOME BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES IN NORTHERN IOWA. FURTHER
SOUTH...WINDS PERSIST BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES AND ANY
BLOWING SNOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE COMPLETELY.
EXPECT SOME BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO A HEADLINE. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS...QPF...AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED AND
LACKING SIGNIFICANT FORCING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A HALF TO NEAR
AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND FORCING.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER AND EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS REMAINS DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...09/00Z
ISSUED AT 547 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

POOR CONDITIONS CONTINUE MOST AREAS. WITH SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING...CIGS WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN SUSTAINED GENERALLY 15 TO 25 KTS. AFT
15Z TUESDAY...CIGS WILL BECOME VFR. FAR WESTERN AREAS THIS EVENING
MAY SEE VFR RETURN BY 06Z. WILL MONITOR FOR UPDATES. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-
TAYLOR-UNION.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BOONE-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR STORY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 082128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
328 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016


PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND TRENDS. STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE BACK OF LARGE GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED PV TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO
IA THERE IS NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OF NOTE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STEADY-STATE NEUTRAL TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS IA AS THE BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY OOZES EASTWARD. WEAK BANDED SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PERSISTENT MIXING TO JUST SHY OF 1KM INTO
THE EVENING. THUS EXPECT AREAS OF FLURRIES AND WEAK SNOW SHOWER
BANDING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE TRIVIAL...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH ONLY A
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE. IDOT PLOW CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
TIME AND SPACE RANGING FROM DECENT VISIBILITY TO NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES...AND I35 SB REMAINS CLOSED FROM
CLEAR LAKE TO AMES. THUS EXPECT A BLIZZARD WARNING TO NO LONGER BE
NEEDED INTO THE EVENING...BUT BLOWING SNOW AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES SHY OF CRITERIA TO REMAIN A PROBLEM INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. DO NOT WANT TO
GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WIND...SIMILAR MIXING TO JUST UNDER 1KM
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIODS SO STAYED TOWARD RAW MODEL
NUMBERS AND A BLEND OF MOS OR JUST ABOVE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOCUS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WAS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES BUT DIFFER
SOME WITH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE NAM/GFS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DECOUPLE BY AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.
FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH THE STRONG CAA IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLAKES TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA. PLUS MIXING TO AROUND
900MB SEEMS REASONABLE MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND CAN EXPECT
SOME BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES IN NORTHERN IOWA. FURTHER
SOUTH...WINDS PERSIST BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES AND ANY
BLOWING SNOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE COMPLETELY.
EXPECT SOME BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO A HEADLINE. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS...QPF...AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED AND
LACKING SIGNIFICANT FORCING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A HALF TO NEAR
AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND FORCING.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER AND EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS REMAINS DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...08/18Z
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IA DUE TO CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. LITTLE
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT VERY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS CONTRIBUTIONS OF SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO WANE. AT LEAST
MVFR STRATUS AND/OR BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUE
MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT REMAIN BRISK.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-
TAYLOR-UNION.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BOONE-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR STORY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 082128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
328 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016


PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND TRENDS. STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE BACK OF LARGE GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED PV TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO
IA THERE IS NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OF NOTE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STEADY-STATE NEUTRAL TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS IA AS THE BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY OOZES EASTWARD. WEAK BANDED SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PERSISTENT MIXING TO JUST SHY OF 1KM INTO
THE EVENING. THUS EXPECT AREAS OF FLURRIES AND WEAK SNOW SHOWER
BANDING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE TRIVIAL...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH ONLY A
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE. IDOT PLOW CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
TIME AND SPACE RANGING FROM DECENT VISIBILITY TO NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES...AND I35 SB REMAINS CLOSED FROM
CLEAR LAKE TO AMES. THUS EXPECT A BLIZZARD WARNING TO NO LONGER BE
NEEDED INTO THE EVENING...BUT BLOWING SNOW AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES SHY OF CRITERIA TO REMAIN A PROBLEM INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. DO NOT WANT TO
GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WIND...SIMILAR MIXING TO JUST UNDER 1KM
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIODS SO STAYED TOWARD RAW MODEL
NUMBERS AND A BLEND OF MOS OR JUST ABOVE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOCUS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WAS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES BUT DIFFER
SOME WITH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE NAM/GFS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DECOUPLE BY AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.
FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH THE STRONG CAA IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLAKES TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA. PLUS MIXING TO AROUND
900MB SEEMS REASONABLE MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND CAN EXPECT
SOME BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES IN NORTHERN IOWA. FURTHER
SOUTH...WINDS PERSIST BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES AND ANY
BLOWING SNOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE COMPLETELY.
EXPECT SOME BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO A HEADLINE. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS...QPF...AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED AND
LACKING SIGNIFICANT FORCING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A HALF TO NEAR
AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND FORCING.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER AND EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS REMAINS DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...08/18Z
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IA DUE TO CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. LITTLE
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT VERY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS CONTRIBUTIONS OF SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO WANE. AT LEAST
MVFR STRATUS AND/OR BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUE
MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT REMAIN BRISK.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-
TAYLOR-UNION.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BOONE-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR STORY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 082128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
328 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016


PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE PRECIP AND WIND TRENDS. STRONG JET
CONTINUES TO SPILL INTO THE BACK OF LARGE GREAT LAKES MEAN
TROUGH...AND ALTHOUGH AN ELONGATED PV TROUGH CONTINUES TO DRIFT INTO
IA THERE IS NO DISTINCT SHORT WAVE OF NOTE UPSTREAM. THIS WILL
RESULT IN STEADY-STATE NEUTRAL TO WEAK FORCING ACROSS IA AS THE BACK
EDGE OF DEEPER MOISTURE GRADUALLY OOZES EASTWARD. WEAK BANDED SNOW
WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH PERSISTENT MIXING TO JUST SHY OF 1KM INTO
THE EVENING. THUS EXPECT AREAS OF FLURRIES AND WEAK SNOW SHOWER
BANDING TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS
WILL BE TRIVIAL...BUT MEAN MIXED LAYER WINDS PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE GUSTY INTO THE EVENING WITH ONLY A
VERY GRADUAL DECREASE. IDOT PLOW CAMS SHOW VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN
TIME AND SPACE RANGING FROM DECENT VISIBILITY TO NEAR WHITE OUT
CONDITIONS ACROSS SHORT DISTANCES...AND I35 SB REMAINS CLOSED FROM
CLEAR LAKE TO AMES. THUS EXPECT A BLIZZARD WARNING TO NO LONGER BE
NEEDED INTO THE EVENING...BUT BLOWING SNOW AND DRAMATICALLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES SHY OF CRITERIA TO REMAIN A PROBLEM INTO THE EVENING.
HAVE ADDED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
IA THROUGH MIDNIGHT AFTER CURRENT HEADLINES EXPIRE. DO NOT WANT TO
GIVE THE IMPRESSION THAT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
SUNSET.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND WIND...SIMILAR MIXING TO JUST UNDER 1KM
SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIODS SO STAYED TOWARD RAW MODEL
NUMBERS AND A BLEND OF MOS OR JUST ABOVE.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

FOCUS OVER THE EXTENDED PERIOD WAS MAINLY ON TEMPERATURES AND
LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WEDNESDAY. LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/NAM THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN A BLEND OF ECMWF/GFS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OVERALL...MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES BUT DIFFER
SOME WITH SHORTWAVE ON WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF SEEMS A LITTLE TOO
QUICK WITH THE SHORTWAVE THAN THE NAM/GFS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...STRONG CAA CONTINUES THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY TUESDAY BEFORE WINDS FINALLY DECOUPLE BY AROUND SUNSET
TUESDAY EVENING AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE.
FLURRIES LOOK POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS SOUNDINGS
DEPICT SATURATION WITHIN THE DGZ...WHICH IS VERY NEAR THE
SURFACE. WITH THE STRONG CAA IN PLACE...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
FLAKES TOMORROW MORNING OVER NORTHERN IOWA. PLUS MIXING TO AROUND
900MB SEEMS REASONABLE MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW AND CAN EXPECT
SOME BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES IN NORTHERN IOWA. FURTHER
SOUTH...WINDS PERSIST BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE IN FLURRIES AND ANY
BLOWING SNOW.

THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT SOON ENOUGH FOR WINDS TO SUBSIDE COMPLETELY.
EXPECT SOME BELOW ZERO WIND CHILL VALUES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY...LIKELY LEADING TO A HEADLINE. A QUICK MOVING
SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS CENTRAL TO WESTERN IOWA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. INCREASED POPS...QPF...AND THUS SNOW AMOUNTS
DURING THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SYSTEM REMAINS MOISTURE STARVED AND
LACKING SIGNIFICANT FORCING...BUT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A HALF TO NEAR
AN INCH OF LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW. ANOTHER COLD NIGHT IN STORE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
FRIDAY WITH THE ECMWF A BIT MORE BULLISH WITH THE QPF AND FORCING.
REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO NUDGE POPS UP A BIT. LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS LOOK POSSIBLE. YET ANOTHER AND EVEN STRONGER
SHORTWAVE DEPICTED BY THE ECMWF ROLLS THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. GFS REMAINS DRY WITH LARGE RIDGE OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION...08/18Z
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IA DUE TO CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. LITTLE
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT VERY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS CONTRIBUTIONS OF SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO WANE. AT LEAST
MVFR STRATUS AND/OR BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUE
MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT REMAIN BRISK.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-
TAYLOR-UNION.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR BOONE-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT FOR STORY.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 081813
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1213 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO END TIME OF 00Z TO BLEND INTO
THINKING OF ADJACENT OFFICES FOR CONSISTENT MESSAGING. THE LATEST
HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST CONTRIBUTIONS OF ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUE DRAMATIC VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA COMING THROUGH NOW
TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH SATURATION
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO KEEP THREAT FOR DECENT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS SEEM OVERDONE ON WINDS
WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SREF/RAP MUCH LESS AROUND 40-45KTS.
NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THOSE HIGHER WINDS GUSTS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY GETTING GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE TRENDED WINDS DOWN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY GOING CLOSER TO THE RAP/SREF VALUES. WITH THE
LOWERED WINDS...HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED SOME OF
THE FRINGES OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STILL SOME PARTIALLY COVERED/COMPLETELY COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
SLICK DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NOT BEING REALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN MOST/EASTERN-MOST
AREAS OF THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETTING REPORTS OF
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED AND CONSISTENT LOWERED VSBYS AT A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AS IS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE DURATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HEADLINES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS TO COME
TO AN END TOWARD MID AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. AT 500 MB A LARGE
GYRE WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LYING BENEATH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EVEN AS
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE
MIDWEST...ANOTHER COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER OR
NEAR IOWA AND REINFORCE THE EASTERN GYRE...DELAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO
MOVE EASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF LOWER LEVELS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ENDING IN OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A ZONE OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH DRAPED ACROSS IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WOULD INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COME AROUND FRIDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE
PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE ABLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THEN IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK....PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AIR TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...08/18Z
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IA DUE TO CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. LITTLE
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT VERY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS CONTRIBUTIONS OF SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO WANE. AT LEAST
MVFR STRATUS AND/OR BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUE
MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT REMAIN BRISK.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-
TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 081813
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1213 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO END TIME OF 00Z TO BLEND INTO
THINKING OF ADJACENT OFFICES FOR CONSISTENT MESSAGING. THE LATEST
HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST CONTRIBUTIONS OF ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUE DRAMATIC VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA COMING THROUGH NOW
TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH SATURATION
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO KEEP THREAT FOR DECENT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS SEEM OVERDONE ON WINDS
WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SREF/RAP MUCH LESS AROUND 40-45KTS.
NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THOSE HIGHER WINDS GUSTS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY GETTING GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE TRENDED WINDS DOWN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY GOING CLOSER TO THE RAP/SREF VALUES. WITH THE
LOWERED WINDS...HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED SOME OF
THE FRINGES OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STILL SOME PARTIALLY COVERED/COMPLETELY COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
SLICK DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NOT BEING REALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN MOST/EASTERN-MOST
AREAS OF THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETTING REPORTS OF
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED AND CONSISTENT LOWERED VSBYS AT A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AS IS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE DURATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HEADLINES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS TO COME
TO AN END TOWARD MID AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. AT 500 MB A LARGE
GYRE WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LYING BENEATH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EVEN AS
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE
MIDWEST...ANOTHER COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER OR
NEAR IOWA AND REINFORCE THE EASTERN GYRE...DELAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO
MOVE EASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF LOWER LEVELS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ENDING IN OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A ZONE OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH DRAPED ACROSS IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WOULD INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COME AROUND FRIDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE
PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE ABLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THEN IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK....PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AIR TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...08/18Z
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CST MON FEB 8 2016

MAINLY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS CENTRAL IA DUE TO CLOUDS AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND BLOWING SNOW. LITTLE
CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT VERY GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS CONTRIBUTIONS OF SNOW SHOWERS BEGIN TO WANE. AT LEAST
MVFR STRATUS AND/OR BLOWING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER INTO TUE
MORNING IN MOST LOCATIONS. WINDS WILL ONLY SLOWLY DECREASE THROUGH
THE PERIOD BUT REMAIN BRISK.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-
TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 081613
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1013 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1011 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

ALL HEADLINES HAVE BEEN EXTENDED TO END TIME OF 00Z TO BLEND INTO
THINKING OF ADJACENT OFFICES FOR CONSISTENT MESSAGING. THE LATEST
HRRR AND RAP SUGGEST CONTRIBUTIONS OF ADDITIONAL SNOW WILL
DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON...BUT STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR CONTINUE DRAMATIC VISIBILITY
RESTRICTIONS...ESPECIALLY IN RURAL OPEN AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA COMING THROUGH NOW
TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH SATURATION
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO KEEP THREAT FOR DECENT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS SEEM OVERDONE ON WINDS
WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SREF/RAP MUCH LESS AROUND 40-45KTS.
NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THOSE HIGHER WINDS GUSTS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY GETTING GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE TRENDED WINDS DOWN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY GOING CLOSER TO THE RAP/SREF VALUES. WITH THE
LOWERED WINDS...HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED SOME OF
THE FRINGES OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STILL SOME PARTIALLY COVERED/COMPLETELY COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
SLICK DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NOT BEING REALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN MOST/EASTERN-MOST
AREAS OF THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETTING REPORTS OF
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED AND CONSISTENT LOWERED VSBYS AT A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AS IS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE DURATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HEADLINES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS TO COME
TO AN END TOWARD MID AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. AT 500 MB A LARGE
GYRE WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LYING BENEATH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EVEN AS
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE
MIDWEST...ANOTHER COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER OR
NEAR IOWA AND REINFORCE THE EASTERN GYRE...DELAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO
MOVE EASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF LOWER LEVELS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ENDING IN OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A ZONE OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH DRAPED ACROSS IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WOULD INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COME AROUND FRIDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE
PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE ABLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THEN IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK....PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AIR TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...08/12Z
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY LOWERING
VSBYS WITH BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. MAINLY IFR TO MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH POSSIBLY DIPS TO LIFR. WINDS TO
DIMINISH SOME TOWARD EVENING...WITH VSBYS IMPROVING BUT LOW CIGS
REMAIN.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-
GUTHRIE-JASPER-MADISON-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-
TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-
GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 081138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA COMING THROUGH NOW
TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH SATURATION
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO KEEP THREAT FOR DECENT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS SEEM OVERDONE ON WINDS
WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SREF/RAP MUCH LESS AROUND 40-45KTS.
NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THOSE HIGHER WINDS GUSTS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY GETTING GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE TRENDED WINDS DOWN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY GOING CLOSER TO THE RAP/SREF VALUES. WITH THE
LOWERED WINDS...HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED SOME OF
THE FRINGES OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STILL SOME PARTIALLY COVERED/COMPLETELY COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
SLICK DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NOT BEING REALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN MOST/EASTERN-MOST
AREAS OF THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETTING REPORTS OF
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED AND CONSISTENT LOWERED VSBYS AT A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AS IS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE DURATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HEADLINES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS TO COME
TO AN END TOWARD MID AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. AT 500 MB A LARGE
GYRE WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LYING BENEATH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EVEN AS
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE
MIDWEST...ANOTHER COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER OR
NEAR IOWA AND REINFORCE THE EASTERN GYRE...DELAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO
MOVE EASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF LOWER LEVELS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ENDING IN OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A ZONE OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH DRAPED ACROSS IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WOULD INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COME AROUND FRIDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE
PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE ABLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THEN IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK....PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AIR TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...08/12Z
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY LOWERING
VSBYS WITH BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. MAINLY IFR TO MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH POSSIBLY DIPS TO LIFR. WINDS TO
DIMINISH SOME TOWARD EVENING...WITH VSBYS IMPROVING BUT LOW CIGS
REMAIN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-JASPER-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CARROLL-
CRAWFORD-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 081138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA COMING THROUGH NOW
TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH SATURATION
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO KEEP THREAT FOR DECENT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS SEEM OVERDONE ON WINDS
WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SREF/RAP MUCH LESS AROUND 40-45KTS.
NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THOSE HIGHER WINDS GUSTS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY GETTING GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE TRENDED WINDS DOWN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY GOING CLOSER TO THE RAP/SREF VALUES. WITH THE
LOWERED WINDS...HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED SOME OF
THE FRINGES OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STILL SOME PARTIALLY COVERED/COMPLETELY COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
SLICK DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NOT BEING REALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN MOST/EASTERN-MOST
AREAS OF THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETTING REPORTS OF
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED AND CONSISTENT LOWERED VSBYS AT A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AS IS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE DURATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HEADLINES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS TO COME
TO AN END TOWARD MID AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. AT 500 MB A LARGE
GYRE WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LYING BENEATH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EVEN AS
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE
MIDWEST...ANOTHER COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER OR
NEAR IOWA AND REINFORCE THE EASTERN GYRE...DELAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO
MOVE EASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF LOWER LEVELS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ENDING IN OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A ZONE OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH DRAPED ACROSS IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WOULD INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COME AROUND FRIDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE
PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE ABLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THEN IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK....PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AIR TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...08/12Z
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY LOWERING
VSBYS WITH BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. MAINLY IFR TO MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH POSSIBLY DIPS TO LIFR. WINDS TO
DIMINISH SOME TOWARD EVENING...WITH VSBYS IMPROVING BUT LOW CIGS
REMAIN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-JASPER-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CARROLL-
CRAWFORD-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 081138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA COMING THROUGH NOW
TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH SATURATION
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO KEEP THREAT FOR DECENT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS SEEM OVERDONE ON WINDS
WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SREF/RAP MUCH LESS AROUND 40-45KTS.
NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THOSE HIGHER WINDS GUSTS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY GETTING GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE TRENDED WINDS DOWN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY GOING CLOSER TO THE RAP/SREF VALUES. WITH THE
LOWERED WINDS...HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED SOME OF
THE FRINGES OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STILL SOME PARTIALLY COVERED/COMPLETELY COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
SLICK DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NOT BEING REALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN MOST/EASTERN-MOST
AREAS OF THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETTING REPORTS OF
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED AND CONSISTENT LOWERED VSBYS AT A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AS IS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE DURATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HEADLINES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS TO COME
TO AN END TOWARD MID AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. AT 500 MB A LARGE
GYRE WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LYING BENEATH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EVEN AS
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE
MIDWEST...ANOTHER COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER OR
NEAR IOWA AND REINFORCE THE EASTERN GYRE...DELAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO
MOVE EASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF LOWER LEVELS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ENDING IN OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A ZONE OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH DRAPED ACROSS IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WOULD INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COME AROUND FRIDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE
PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE ABLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THEN IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK....PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AIR TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...08/12Z
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND INTERMITTENT SNOW SHOWERS TODAY LOWERING
VSBYS WITH BLOWING SNOW AS WELL. MAINLY IFR TO MVFR VSBYS EXPECTED
AT THE TERMINAL SITES...WITH POSSIBLY DIPS TO LIFR. WINDS TO
DIMINISH SOME TOWARD EVENING...WITH VSBYS IMPROVING BUT LOW CIGS
REMAIN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-JASPER-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CARROLL-
CRAWFORD-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 080915
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
315 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

TRICKY FORECAST CONTINUES FOR THE SHORT TERM...WITH GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH INTERMITTENT SNOW
SHOWERS. STRONGEST PRESSURE RISES AND CAA COMING THROUGH NOW
TOWARD SUNRISE...WITH ISALLOBARIC COMPONENT OF WINDS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...WITH SATURATION
AND WEAK LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER TO KEEP THREAT FOR DECENT
SNOW SHOWERS GOING THROUGH THE DAY. NAM/GFS SEEM OVERDONE ON WINDS
WITH AROUND 50 TO 55 KTS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER WINDS
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE SREF/RAP MUCH LESS AROUND 40-45KTS.
NAM/GFS INDICATING THAT THOSE HIGHER WINDS GUSTS ALREADY EXPECTED
TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY GETTING GUSTS TOPPING
OUT AROUND 45 TO 50 MPH. THEREFORE TRENDED WINDS DOWN A BIT
THROUGH THE DAY GOING CLOSER TO THE RAP/SREF VALUES. WITH THE
LOWERED WINDS...HAVING A HARD TIME GETTING MUCH VSBY REDUCTIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS...THEREFORE HAVE DOWNGRADED SOME OF
THE FRINGES OF THE BLIZZARD WARNING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.
STILL SOME PARTIALLY COVERED/COMPLETELY COVERED ROADWAYS THAT ARE
SLICK DUE TO DRIFTING SNOW...BUT OVERALL VISIBILITIES/BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS NOT BEING REALIZED IN THE SOUTHERN MOST/EASTERN-MOST
AREAS OF THE WARNING. REMAINDER OF THE AREA GETTING REPORTS OF
TRAVEL NOT ADVISED AND CONSISTENT LOWERED VSBYS AT A FEW NORTHERN
LOCATIONS...SO WILL KEEP THE REST OF THE WARNING AS IS. ONLY OTHER
CHANGE WAS TO SHORTEN THE DURATION ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE
HEADLINES...WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO LOWER AND SNOW SHOWERS TO COME
TO AN END TOWARD MID AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 AM CST MON FEB 8 2016

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET OVERALL. AT 500 MB A LARGE
GYRE WILL BE CARVED OUT OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH THE
ENTIRE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS LYING BENEATH ITS CYCLONIC FLOW
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AROUND THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...EVEN AS
THE ASSOCIATED WESTERN U.S. RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO ENCROACH UPON THE
MIDWEST...ANOTHER COMPACT BUT VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER OR
NEAR IOWA AND REINFORCE THE EASTERN GYRE...DELAYING ANY
SIGNIFICANT WARMING. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD...THE PATTERN SHOULD BREAK DOWN ALLOWING FOR THE RIDGE TO
MOVE EASTWARD.

IN TERMS OF LOWER LEVELS AND SENSIBLE WEATHER...THE SNOW SHOWERS
AND STRONG WINDS AFFECTING THE AREA TODAY SHOULD MOVE EASTWARD
TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT SNOW LIKELY ENDING IN OUR EAST BY MIDNIGHT.
NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL THEN PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
BEFORE A SURFACE RIDGE SETTLES ACROSS IOWA...BRINGING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLDEST
TEMPERATURES WITHIN THIS REGIME WILL LIKELY COME ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH WIND CHILLS GETTING DOWN TO 10 TO 15 BELOW ZERO IN
OUR NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. MEANWHILE VARIOUS MODEL
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN DEPICTING A ZONE OF WEAK FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ALOFT MOVING OVER THE AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND POSSIBLY PRODUCING LIGHT SNOWFALL...HOWEVER THESE
SOLUTIONS HAVE BEEN HIGHLY VARIABLE IN TIME AND SPACE OVER THE
LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS LOW. IN ADDITION...WITH THE SURFACE
HIGH DRAPED ACROSS IOWA DURING THAT TIME FRAME FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR THAT WOULD INHIBIT ANY MEANINGFUL
PRECIPITATION. THEREFORE HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.

A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION MAY COME AROUND FRIDAY WHEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE MOVES OVER THE REGION.
HOWEVER...ONCE AGAIN THERE IS A LOT OF RUN TO RUN VARIABILITY IN
THE LOCATION AND TIMING OF ANY RESULTING PRECIPITATION. IF THE
PROGNOSTIC MODELS ARE ABLE TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THEN IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AT THE END
OF THE WORK WEEK....PROBABLY FOLLOWED BY MORE COOL AIR TO BEGIN
THE WEEKEND. FINALLY...AT THE END OF THE FORECAST...THE DEEP LAYER
RIDGE MOVING EASTWARD SHOULD BRING A RETURN OF SOMEWHAT MILDER
WEATHER TOWARD SUNDAY AND MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...08/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

COMBINATION OF WIND...FALLING SNOW AND CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR
CONDITIONS NORTH AND MVFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS.
OVERNIGHT BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VSBYS FURTHER TO LIFR AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 09/00Z PRODUCING AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOCAL IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR
BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-JASPER-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ADAIR-
ADAMS-AUDUBON-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DECATUR-GUTHRIE-MADISON-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BOONE-BUTLER-
CALHOUN-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR CARROLL-
CRAWFORD-SAC.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 080554
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1154 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PRIMARY CONCERN OBVIOUSLY REMAINS SNOW AND WIND TRENDS...AND
RESULTANT BLIZZARD POTENTIAL. LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALIES THROUGH THE
SIOUXLAND AREA AND NRN MN. FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES IS
GENERALLY WEAK...BUT RESULTS IN A SATURATED COLUMN...ESPECIALLY
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SNOW...BUT MOSTLY LIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS NOW OCCURRING FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. THE LIFT IS NOT GREAT BUT THE DENDRITIC LAYER
SHOULD BE QUITE DEEP LATER TONIGHT...EXCEEDING 2KM AT TIMES...SO
AT LEAST SOME SNOW PRODUCTION AND ACCUMS ARE QUITE LIKELY. THIS
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...WHICH ARE
DEPICTED IN MOST HI RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS /CAMS/. THE NAM
EVEN DEPICTS SOME TOKEN MLCAPE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A MORE GENERAL
BROAD BRUSH APPROACH IS SHOWN IN QPF TONIGHT DUE TO LOW SPACIAL
PREDICTABILITY...CAMS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR VERY NARROW BANDED QPF TO
REACH 0.10 OR MORE IN NW-SE STRIPES ORIENTED ALONG THE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THUS EXPECT BROAD SNOWFALL AND BANDS TO COMBINE FOR A
DUSTING TO AN INCH BY 12Z WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN BANDS.
REGARDING WIND...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS GRADIENT TIGHTENING
WITH WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE SIOUXLAND AREA...AND MORE PRONOUNCED
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ND AND MN. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
BEHIND THE SIOUXLAND TROUGH WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH.
ALTHOUGH THE PEAK GUSTS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BLEND OF PROJECTED MEAN MIXED LAYER
WIND AND TOP OF THE LAYER MAY GENERATE GUSTS 40 MPH OR MORE INTO
THE NIGHT.

THERE IS A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN METEOROLOGICAL TRENDS
NOTED ABOVE...BUT IT HAS DECREASED RELATING TO HOW THIS WILL
MODULATE INTO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND A POTENTIAL BLIZZARD.
TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA WITH SOME SUNSHINE...AND A FEW MANUAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS SOMEWHAT WET AND COMPACTED. THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTH ESTIMATES /WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/ SHOW THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE DEEPEST UPSTREAM SNOWPACK
OVER SRN MN...SO IT IS SOMEWHAT UNKNOWN WHETHER THIS AREA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW UNTIL THE WINDS WORK
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FEEL FALLING SNOW...ESPECIALLY THE BANDED
SNOW...WILL PRODUCE DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
SHORTER PERIODS BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THIS CAN COMBINE WITH
EXISTING SNOW DOWN TO A 1/4SM OR LESS HAS DIMINISHED. CERTAINLY DO
NOT WANT TO RISK CANCELING OR DOWNGRADING CURRENT WARNING AND THEN
HAVING TO FLIP FLOP BACK TO WARNING...SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT
HEADLINE RIDE UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN 1/4SM VISIBILITY INCREASES. THE
WIND COMPONENT WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE. EITHER A WIND ADVISORY OR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE SOUTHERN NON-
WARNING AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER WHICH
FLAVOR OR HEADLINE IS MORE APPROPRIATE...AGAIN NOT WANTING TO FLIP
FLOP.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST CONCERN REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED BLIZZARD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS/HIRES NMM FOR POPS/WX TIMING MONDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING PLACING
IOWA REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS/WINDS BOTTOM OUT B/T -13C TO -17C
WITH WINDS HOWLING AT 40-55 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE AT OR NEAR THE
MIXED LAYER AND EXPECT THEM TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A DEEP AND
SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING...AND EVEN EAST OF
I-35 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST SOUNDINGS ARE COMPLETELY WITHIN
THE DGZ UP TO ROUGHLY 600MB..SO EXPECTING SNOW TO CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VERY LITTLE OMEGA PRESENT BUT WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AVAILABLE...EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY INTRUSION BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
FINALLY CUTOFF THE ICE INTRODUCTION AND SNOW PRODUCTION WEST OF I-
35.

HEADLINE CONCERNS...CERTAINLY MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...FELT THE NEED TO HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ATTM ACROSS IN THE SOUTH TO AVOID THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPGRADING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONCE THIS SYSTEM SHOWS ITS
HAND.

SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
TOMORROW NIGHT BUT THE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND ANY
VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOOK TO
DIP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY NUDGES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRISK WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS
LOOK TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES TO 20-25 BELOW BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND LIKELY NEED A HEADLINE DURING THIS TIME FRAME OVER
NORTHERN IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AND PROVIDES DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS DOES BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND LEFT DRY FORECAST
ATTM UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...08/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

COMBINATION OF WIND...FALLING SNOW AND CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR
CONDITIONS NORTH AND MVFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS.
OVERNIGHT BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VSBYS FURTHER TO LIFR AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 09/00Z PRODUCING AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOCAL IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR
BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-
BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
CASS-CLARKE-DECATUR-MADISON-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 080554
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1154 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PRIMARY CONCERN OBVIOUSLY REMAINS SNOW AND WIND TRENDS...AND
RESULTANT BLIZZARD POTENTIAL. LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALIES THROUGH THE
SIOUXLAND AREA AND NRN MN. FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES IS
GENERALLY WEAK...BUT RESULTS IN A SATURATED COLUMN...ESPECIALLY
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SNOW...BUT MOSTLY LIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS NOW OCCURRING FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. THE LIFT IS NOT GREAT BUT THE DENDRITIC LAYER
SHOULD BE QUITE DEEP LATER TONIGHT...EXCEEDING 2KM AT TIMES...SO
AT LEAST SOME SNOW PRODUCTION AND ACCUMS ARE QUITE LIKELY. THIS
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...WHICH ARE
DEPICTED IN MOST HI RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS /CAMS/. THE NAM
EVEN DEPICTS SOME TOKEN MLCAPE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A MORE GENERAL
BROAD BRUSH APPROACH IS SHOWN IN QPF TONIGHT DUE TO LOW SPACIAL
PREDICTABILITY...CAMS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR VERY NARROW BANDED QPF TO
REACH 0.10 OR MORE IN NW-SE STRIPES ORIENTED ALONG THE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THUS EXPECT BROAD SNOWFALL AND BANDS TO COMBINE FOR A
DUSTING TO AN INCH BY 12Z WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN BANDS.
REGARDING WIND...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS GRADIENT TIGHTENING
WITH WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE SIOUXLAND AREA...AND MORE PRONOUNCED
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ND AND MN. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
BEHIND THE SIOUXLAND TROUGH WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH.
ALTHOUGH THE PEAK GUSTS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BLEND OF PROJECTED MEAN MIXED LAYER
WIND AND TOP OF THE LAYER MAY GENERATE GUSTS 40 MPH OR MORE INTO
THE NIGHT.

THERE IS A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN METEOROLOGICAL TRENDS
NOTED ABOVE...BUT IT HAS DECREASED RELATING TO HOW THIS WILL
MODULATE INTO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND A POTENTIAL BLIZZARD.
TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA WITH SOME SUNSHINE...AND A FEW MANUAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS SOMEWHAT WET AND COMPACTED. THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTH ESTIMATES /WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/ SHOW THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE DEEPEST UPSTREAM SNOWPACK
OVER SRN MN...SO IT IS SOMEWHAT UNKNOWN WHETHER THIS AREA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW UNTIL THE WINDS WORK
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FEEL FALLING SNOW...ESPECIALLY THE BANDED
SNOW...WILL PRODUCE DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
SHORTER PERIODS BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THIS CAN COMBINE WITH
EXISTING SNOW DOWN TO A 1/4SM OR LESS HAS DIMINISHED. CERTAINLY DO
NOT WANT TO RISK CANCELING OR DOWNGRADING CURRENT WARNING AND THEN
HAVING TO FLIP FLOP BACK TO WARNING...SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT
HEADLINE RIDE UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN 1/4SM VISIBILITY INCREASES. THE
WIND COMPONENT WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE. EITHER A WIND ADVISORY OR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE SOUTHERN NON-
WARNING AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER WHICH
FLAVOR OR HEADLINE IS MORE APPROPRIATE...AGAIN NOT WANTING TO FLIP
FLOP.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST CONCERN REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED BLIZZARD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS/HIRES NMM FOR POPS/WX TIMING MONDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING PLACING
IOWA REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS/WINDS BOTTOM OUT B/T -13C TO -17C
WITH WINDS HOWLING AT 40-55 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE AT OR NEAR THE
MIXED LAYER AND EXPECT THEM TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A DEEP AND
SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING...AND EVEN EAST OF
I-35 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST SOUNDINGS ARE COMPLETELY WITHIN
THE DGZ UP TO ROUGHLY 600MB..SO EXPECTING SNOW TO CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VERY LITTLE OMEGA PRESENT BUT WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AVAILABLE...EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY INTRUSION BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
FINALLY CUTOFF THE ICE INTRODUCTION AND SNOW PRODUCTION WEST OF I-
35.

HEADLINE CONCERNS...CERTAINLY MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...FELT THE NEED TO HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ATTM ACROSS IN THE SOUTH TO AVOID THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPGRADING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONCE THIS SYSTEM SHOWS ITS
HAND.

SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
TOMORROW NIGHT BUT THE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND ANY
VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOOK TO
DIP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY NUDGES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRISK WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS
LOOK TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES TO 20-25 BELOW BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND LIKELY NEED A HEADLINE DURING THIS TIME FRAME OVER
NORTHERN IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AND PROVIDES DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS DOES BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND LEFT DRY FORECAST
ATTM UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...08/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

COMBINATION OF WIND...FALLING SNOW AND CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR
CONDITIONS NORTH AND MVFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS.
OVERNIGHT BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VSBYS FURTHER TO LIFR AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 09/00Z PRODUCING AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOCAL IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR
BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-
BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
CASS-CLARKE-DECATUR-MADISON-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 080554
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1154 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PRIMARY CONCERN OBVIOUSLY REMAINS SNOW AND WIND TRENDS...AND
RESULTANT BLIZZARD POTENTIAL. LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALIES THROUGH THE
SIOUXLAND AREA AND NRN MN. FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES IS
GENERALLY WEAK...BUT RESULTS IN A SATURATED COLUMN...ESPECIALLY
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SNOW...BUT MOSTLY LIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS NOW OCCURRING FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. THE LIFT IS NOT GREAT BUT THE DENDRITIC LAYER
SHOULD BE QUITE DEEP LATER TONIGHT...EXCEEDING 2KM AT TIMES...SO
AT LEAST SOME SNOW PRODUCTION AND ACCUMS ARE QUITE LIKELY. THIS
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...WHICH ARE
DEPICTED IN MOST HI RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS /CAMS/. THE NAM
EVEN DEPICTS SOME TOKEN MLCAPE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A MORE GENERAL
BROAD BRUSH APPROACH IS SHOWN IN QPF TONIGHT DUE TO LOW SPACIAL
PREDICTABILITY...CAMS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR VERY NARROW BANDED QPF TO
REACH 0.10 OR MORE IN NW-SE STRIPES ORIENTED ALONG THE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THUS EXPECT BROAD SNOWFALL AND BANDS TO COMBINE FOR A
DUSTING TO AN INCH BY 12Z WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN BANDS.
REGARDING WIND...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS GRADIENT TIGHTENING
WITH WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE SIOUXLAND AREA...AND MORE PRONOUNCED
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ND AND MN. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
BEHIND THE SIOUXLAND TROUGH WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH.
ALTHOUGH THE PEAK GUSTS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BLEND OF PROJECTED MEAN MIXED LAYER
WIND AND TOP OF THE LAYER MAY GENERATE GUSTS 40 MPH OR MORE INTO
THE NIGHT.

THERE IS A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN METEOROLOGICAL TRENDS
NOTED ABOVE...BUT IT HAS DECREASED RELATING TO HOW THIS WILL
MODULATE INTO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND A POTENTIAL BLIZZARD.
TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA WITH SOME SUNSHINE...AND A FEW MANUAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS SOMEWHAT WET AND COMPACTED. THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTH ESTIMATES /WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/ SHOW THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE DEEPEST UPSTREAM SNOWPACK
OVER SRN MN...SO IT IS SOMEWHAT UNKNOWN WHETHER THIS AREA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW UNTIL THE WINDS WORK
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FEEL FALLING SNOW...ESPECIALLY THE BANDED
SNOW...WILL PRODUCE DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
SHORTER PERIODS BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THIS CAN COMBINE WITH
EXISTING SNOW DOWN TO A 1/4SM OR LESS HAS DIMINISHED. CERTAINLY DO
NOT WANT TO RISK CANCELING OR DOWNGRADING CURRENT WARNING AND THEN
HAVING TO FLIP FLOP BACK TO WARNING...SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT
HEADLINE RIDE UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN 1/4SM VISIBILITY INCREASES. THE
WIND COMPONENT WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE. EITHER A WIND ADVISORY OR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE SOUTHERN NON-
WARNING AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER WHICH
FLAVOR OR HEADLINE IS MORE APPROPRIATE...AGAIN NOT WANTING TO FLIP
FLOP.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST CONCERN REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED BLIZZARD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS/HIRES NMM FOR POPS/WX TIMING MONDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING PLACING
IOWA REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS/WINDS BOTTOM OUT B/T -13C TO -17C
WITH WINDS HOWLING AT 40-55 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE AT OR NEAR THE
MIXED LAYER AND EXPECT THEM TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A DEEP AND
SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING...AND EVEN EAST OF
I-35 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST SOUNDINGS ARE COMPLETELY WITHIN
THE DGZ UP TO ROUGHLY 600MB..SO EXPECTING SNOW TO CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VERY LITTLE OMEGA PRESENT BUT WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AVAILABLE...EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY INTRUSION BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
FINALLY CUTOFF THE ICE INTRODUCTION AND SNOW PRODUCTION WEST OF I-
35.

HEADLINE CONCERNS...CERTAINLY MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...FELT THE NEED TO HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ATTM ACROSS IN THE SOUTH TO AVOID THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPGRADING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONCE THIS SYSTEM SHOWS ITS
HAND.

SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
TOMORROW NIGHT BUT THE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND ANY
VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOOK TO
DIP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY NUDGES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRISK WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS
LOOK TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES TO 20-25 BELOW BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND LIKELY NEED A HEADLINE DURING THIS TIME FRAME OVER
NORTHERN IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AND PROVIDES DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS DOES BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND LEFT DRY FORECAST
ATTM UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...08/06Z
ISSUED AT 1153 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

COMBINATION OF WIND...FALLING SNOW AND CLOUDS PRODUCING IFR
CONDITIONS NORTH AND MVFR CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS.
OVERNIGHT BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE VSBYS FURTHER TO LIFR AT TIMES.
WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG THROUGH 09/00Z PRODUCING AT LEAST MVFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH LOCAL IFR IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS OR
BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-
BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-
EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
CASS-CLARKE-DECATUR-MADISON-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 072353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
547 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PRIMARY CONCERN OBVIOUSLY REMAINS SNOW AND WIND TRENDS...AND
RESULTANT BLIZZARD POTENTIAL. LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALIES THROUGH THE
SIOUXLAND AREA AND NRN MN. FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES IS
GENERALLY WEAK...BUT RESULTS IN A SATURATED COLUMN...ESPECIALLY
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SNOW...BUT MOSTLY LIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS NOW OCCURRING FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. THE LIFT IS NOT GREAT BUT THE DENDRITIC LAYER
SHOULD BE QUITE DEEP LATER TONIGHT...EXCEEDING 2KM AT TIMES...SO
AT LEAST SOME SNOW PRODUCTION AND ACCUMS ARE QUITE LIKELY. THIS
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...WHICH ARE
DEPICTED IN MOST HI RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS /CAMS/. THE NAM
EVEN DEPICTS SOME TOKEN MLCAPE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A MORE GENERAL
BROAD BRUSH APPROACH IS SHOWN IN QPF TONIGHT DUE TO LOW SPACIAL
PREDICTABILITY...CAMS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR VERY NARROW BANDED QPF TO
REACH 0.10 OR MORE IN NW-SE STRIPES ORIENTED ALONG THE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THUS EXPECT BROAD SNOWFALL AND BANDS TO COMBINE FOR A
DUSTING TO AN INCH BY 12Z WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN BANDS.
REGARDING WIND...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS GRADIENT TIGHTENING
WITH WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE SIOUXLAND AREA...AND MORE PRONOUNCED
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ND AND MN. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
BEHIND THE SIOUXLAND TROUGH WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH.
ALTHOUGH THE PEAK GUSTS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BLEND OF PROJECTED MEAN MIXED LAYER
WIND AND TOP OF THE LAYER MAY GENERATE GUSTS 40 MPH OR MORE INTO
THE NIGHT.

THERE IS A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN METEOROLOGICAL TRENDS
NOTED ABOVE...BUT IT HAS DECREASED RELATING TO HOW THIS WILL
MODULATE INTO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND A POTENTIAL BLIZZARD.
TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA WITH SOME SUNSHINE...AND A FEW MANUAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS SOMEWHAT WET AND COMPACTED. THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTH ESTIMATES /WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/ SHOW THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE DEEPEST UPSTREAM SNOWPACK
OVER SRN MN...SO IT IS SOMEWHAT UNKNOWN WHETHER THIS AREA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW UNTIL THE WINDS WORK
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FEEL FALLING SNOW...ESPECIALLY THE BANDED
SNOW...WILL PRODUCE DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
SHORTER PERIODS BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THIS CAN COMBINE WITH
EXISTING SNOW DOWN TO A 1/4SM OR LESS HAS DIMINISHED. CERTAINLY DO
NOT WANT TO RISK CANCELING OR DOWNGRADING CURRENT WARNING AND THEN
HAVING TO FLIP FLOP BACK TO WARNING...SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT
HEADLINE RIDE UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN 1/4SM VISIBILITY INCREASES. THE
WIND COMPONENT WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE. EITHER A WIND ADVISORY OR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE SOUTHERN NON-
WARNING AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER WHICH
FLAVOR OR HEADLINE IS MORE APPROPRIATE...AGAIN NOT WANTING TO FLIP
FLOP.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST CONCERN REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED BLIZZARD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS/HIRES NMM FOR POPS/WX TIMING MONDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING PLACING
IOWA REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS/WINDS BOTTOM OUT B/T -13C TO -17C
WITH WINDS HOWLING AT 40-55 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE AT OR NEAR THE
MIXED LAYER AND EXPECT THEM TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A DEEP AND
SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING...AND EVEN EAST OF
I-35 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST SOUNDINGS ARE COMPLETELY WITHIN
THE DGZ UP TO ROUGHLY 600MB..SO EXPECTING SNOW TO CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VERY LITTLE OMEGA PRESENT BUT WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AVAILABLE...EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY INTRUSION BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
FINALLY CUTOFF THE ICE INTRODUCTION AND SNOW PRODUCTION WEST OF I-
35.

HEADLINE CONCERNS...CERTAINLY MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...FELT THE NEED TO HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ATTM ACROSS IN THE SOUTH TO AVOID THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPGRADING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONCE THIS SYSTEM SHOWS ITS
HAND.

SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
TOMORROW NIGHT BUT THE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND ANY
VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOOK TO
DIP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY NUDGES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRISK WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS
LOOK TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES TO 20-25 BELOW BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND LIKELY NEED A HEADLINE DURING THIS TIME FRAME OVER
NORTHERN IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AND PROVIDES DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS DOES BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND LEFT DRY FORECAST
ATTM UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW.  ONCE ENOUGH SNOW FALLS...BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE
VSBY FURTHER TO IFR CONDITIONS...LIKELY AFT 09Z THROUGH 16Z.
DUE TO WARM TEMPS DURING THIS PAST AFTERNOON CURRENT SNOWPACK HAS
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TOO WET TO BLOW AROUND TOO MUCH.  UPON REFREEZE
THOUGH THE SURFACE WILL BE SLICK FOR NEW BLOW TO BE EASILY LOFTED
MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE REDUCED VSBYS IN TAF FOR THIS REASON. DURING
THE DAY MONDAY STRONG WIND BLOWING FOR MANY HOURS WILL SUFFICIENTLY
BREAK ANY CRUSTED SNOW AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE ENDING OF FALLING SNOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO
GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 072353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
547 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PRIMARY CONCERN OBVIOUSLY REMAINS SNOW AND WIND TRENDS...AND
RESULTANT BLIZZARD POTENTIAL. LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALIES THROUGH THE
SIOUXLAND AREA AND NRN MN. FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES IS
GENERALLY WEAK...BUT RESULTS IN A SATURATED COLUMN...ESPECIALLY
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SNOW...BUT MOSTLY LIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS NOW OCCURRING FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. THE LIFT IS NOT GREAT BUT THE DENDRITIC LAYER
SHOULD BE QUITE DEEP LATER TONIGHT...EXCEEDING 2KM AT TIMES...SO
AT LEAST SOME SNOW PRODUCTION AND ACCUMS ARE QUITE LIKELY. THIS
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...WHICH ARE
DEPICTED IN MOST HI RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS /CAMS/. THE NAM
EVEN DEPICTS SOME TOKEN MLCAPE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A MORE GENERAL
BROAD BRUSH APPROACH IS SHOWN IN QPF TONIGHT DUE TO LOW SPACIAL
PREDICTABILITY...CAMS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR VERY NARROW BANDED QPF TO
REACH 0.10 OR MORE IN NW-SE STRIPES ORIENTED ALONG THE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THUS EXPECT BROAD SNOWFALL AND BANDS TO COMBINE FOR A
DUSTING TO AN INCH BY 12Z WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN BANDS.
REGARDING WIND...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS GRADIENT TIGHTENING
WITH WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE SIOUXLAND AREA...AND MORE PRONOUNCED
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ND AND MN. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
BEHIND THE SIOUXLAND TROUGH WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH.
ALTHOUGH THE PEAK GUSTS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BLEND OF PROJECTED MEAN MIXED LAYER
WIND AND TOP OF THE LAYER MAY GENERATE GUSTS 40 MPH OR MORE INTO
THE NIGHT.

THERE IS A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN METEOROLOGICAL TRENDS
NOTED ABOVE...BUT IT HAS DECREASED RELATING TO HOW THIS WILL
MODULATE INTO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND A POTENTIAL BLIZZARD.
TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA WITH SOME SUNSHINE...AND A FEW MANUAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS SOMEWHAT WET AND COMPACTED. THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTH ESTIMATES /WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/ SHOW THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE DEEPEST UPSTREAM SNOWPACK
OVER SRN MN...SO IT IS SOMEWHAT UNKNOWN WHETHER THIS AREA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW UNTIL THE WINDS WORK
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FEEL FALLING SNOW...ESPECIALLY THE BANDED
SNOW...WILL PRODUCE DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
SHORTER PERIODS BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THIS CAN COMBINE WITH
EXISTING SNOW DOWN TO A 1/4SM OR LESS HAS DIMINISHED. CERTAINLY DO
NOT WANT TO RISK CANCELING OR DOWNGRADING CURRENT WARNING AND THEN
HAVING TO FLIP FLOP BACK TO WARNING...SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT
HEADLINE RIDE UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN 1/4SM VISIBILITY INCREASES. THE
WIND COMPONENT WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE. EITHER A WIND ADVISORY OR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE SOUTHERN NON-
WARNING AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER WHICH
FLAVOR OR HEADLINE IS MORE APPROPRIATE...AGAIN NOT WANTING TO FLIP
FLOP.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST CONCERN REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED BLIZZARD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS/HIRES NMM FOR POPS/WX TIMING MONDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING PLACING
IOWA REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS/WINDS BOTTOM OUT B/T -13C TO -17C
WITH WINDS HOWLING AT 40-55 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE AT OR NEAR THE
MIXED LAYER AND EXPECT THEM TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A DEEP AND
SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING...AND EVEN EAST OF
I-35 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST SOUNDINGS ARE COMPLETELY WITHIN
THE DGZ UP TO ROUGHLY 600MB..SO EXPECTING SNOW TO CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VERY LITTLE OMEGA PRESENT BUT WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AVAILABLE...EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY INTRUSION BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
FINALLY CUTOFF THE ICE INTRODUCTION AND SNOW PRODUCTION WEST OF I-
35.

HEADLINE CONCERNS...CERTAINLY MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...FELT THE NEED TO HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ATTM ACROSS IN THE SOUTH TO AVOID THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPGRADING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONCE THIS SYSTEM SHOWS ITS
HAND.

SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
TOMORROW NIGHT BUT THE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND ANY
VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOOK TO
DIP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY NUDGES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRISK WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS
LOOK TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES TO 20-25 BELOW BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND LIKELY NEED A HEADLINE DURING THIS TIME FRAME OVER
NORTHERN IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AND PROVIDES DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS DOES BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND LEFT DRY FORECAST
ATTM UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO A COMBINATION OF
CLOUDS AND SNOW.  ONCE ENOUGH SNOW FALLS...BLOWING SNOW WILL REDUCE
VSBY FURTHER TO IFR CONDITIONS...LIKELY AFT 09Z THROUGH 16Z.
DUE TO WARM TEMPS DURING THIS PAST AFTERNOON CURRENT SNOWPACK HAS
BECOME SUFFICIENTLY TOO WET TO BLOW AROUND TOO MUCH.  UPON REFREEZE
THOUGH THE SURFACE WILL BE SLICK FOR NEW BLOW TO BE EASILY LOFTED
MONDAY MORNING AND HAVE REDUCED VSBYS IN TAF FOR THIS REASON. DURING
THE DAY MONDAY STRONG WIND BLOWING FOR MANY HOURS WILL SUFFICIENTLY
BREAK ANY CRUSTED SNOW AND REDUCED VSBYS SHOULD PERSIST INTO THE
AFTERNOON DESPITE THE ENDING OF FALLING SNOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO
GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 072139
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
339 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PRIMARY CONCERN OBVIOUSLY REMAINS SNOW AND WIND TRENDS...AND
RESULTANT BLIZZARD POTENTIAL. LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALIES THROUGH THE
SIOUXLAND AREA AND NRN MN. FORCING WITH THESE FEATURES IS
GENERALLY WEAK...BUT RESULTS IN A SATURATED COLUMN...ESPECIALLY
BY LATER TONIGHT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
SNOW...BUT MOSTLY LIGHT...SIMILAR TO WHAT IS NOW OCCURRING FROM
THE DAKOTAS INTO MN. THE LIFT IS NOT GREAT BUT THE DENDRITIC LAYER
SHOULD BE QUITE DEEP LATER TONIGHT...EXCEEDING 2KM AT TIMES...SO
AT LEAST SOME SNOW PRODUCTION AND ACCUMS ARE QUITE LIKELY. THIS
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL ALSO EVENTUALLY COMBINE WITH
CONVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS AS LAPSE RATES STEEPEN...WHICH ARE
DEPICTED IN MOST HI RES CONVECTION ALLOWING MODELS /CAMS/. THE NAM
EVEN DEPICTS SOME TOKEN MLCAPE TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH A MORE GENERAL
BROAD BRUSH APPROACH IS SHOWN IN QPF TONIGHT DUE TO LOW SPACIAL
PREDICTABILITY...CAMS SHOW POTENTIAL FOR VERY NARROW BANDED QPF TO
REACH 0.10 OR MORE IN NW-SE STRIPES ORIENTED ALONG THE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THUS EXPECT BROAD SNOWFALL AND BANDS TO COMBINE FOR A
DUSTING TO AN INCH BY 12Z WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN BANDS.
REGARDING WIND...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS GRADIENT TIGHTENING
WITH WEAK TROUGH THROUGH THE SIOUXLAND AREA...AND MORE PRONOUNCED
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH ND AND MN. LAPSE RATES ARE STEEPENING
BEHIND THE SIOUXLAND TROUGH WITH SOME GUSTS REACHING 40-50 MPH.
ALTHOUGH THE PEAK GUSTS WILL REMAIN WEST OF OUR FORECAST
AREA...SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A BLEND OF PROJECTED MEAN MIXED LAYER
WIND AND TOP OF THE LAYER MAY GENERATE GUSTS 40 MPH OR MORE INTO
THE NIGHT.

THERE IS A RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN METEOROLOGICAL TRENDS
NOTED ABOVE...BUT IT HAS DECREASED RELATING TO HOW THIS WILL
MODULATE INTO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS AND A POTENTIAL BLIZZARD.
TEMPS HAVE REACHED THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE CURRENT BLIZZARD
WARNING AREA WITH SOME SUNSHINE...AND A FEW MANUAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE SNOW IS SOMEWHAT WET AND COMPACTED. THE LATEST
SNOW DEPTH ESTIMATES /WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV/ SHOW THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO REACH THE DEEPEST UPSTREAM SNOWPACK
OVER SRN MN...SO IT IS SOMEWHAT UNKNOWN WHETHER THIS AREA WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW UNTIL THE WINDS WORK
FOR SEVERAL HOURS. FEEL FALLING SNOW...ESPECIALLY THE BANDED
SNOW...WILL PRODUCE DRAMATICALLY REDUCED VISIBILITIES FOR SOME
SHORTER PERIODS BUT CONFIDENCE IN WHETHER THIS CAN COMBINE WITH
EXISTING SNOW DOWN TO A 1/4SM OR LESS HAS DIMINISHED. CERTAINLY DO
NOT WANT TO RISK CANCELING OR DOWNGRADING CURRENT WARNING AND THEN
HAVING TO FLIP FLOP BACK TO WARNING...SO WILL LEAVE CURRENT
HEADLINE RIDE UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN 1/4SM VISIBILITY INCREASES. THE
WIND COMPONENT WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE. EITHER A WIND ADVISORY OR
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THE SOUTHERN NON-
WARNING AREA...BUT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL IT BECOMES CLEARER WHICH
FLAVOR OR HEADLINE IS MORE APPROPRIATE...AGAIN NOT WANTING TO FLIP
FLOP.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

FORECAST CONCERN REMAINED FOCUSED ON CONTINUED BLIZZARD AND WINDY
CONDITIONS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE
NAM/GFS/HIRES NMM FOR POPS/WX TIMING MONDAY...THEN A GFS/ECMWF
BLEND THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE LARGE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOOKS TO BE
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING PLACING
IOWA REMAINS WELL WITHIN THE STRONG NORTHERLY FLOW THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY MONDAY. 850MB TEMPS/WINDS BOTTOM OUT B/T -13C TO -17C
WITH WINDS HOWLING AT 40-55 KNOTS. THESE WINDS ARE AT OR NEAR THE
MIXED LAYER AND EXPECT THEM TO REACH THE SURFACE WITH SUFFICIENT
MOMENTUM TRANSFER THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. BUFR SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO KEEP MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITHIN A DEEP AND
SATURATED DENDRITIC LAYER THROUGH THE MORNING...AND EVEN EAST OF
I-35 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MOST SOUNDINGS ARE COMPLETELY WITHIN
THE DGZ UP TO ROUGHLY 600MB..SO EXPECTING SNOW TO CONTINUE TO FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. VERY LITTLE OMEGA PRESENT BUT WITH VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES AND A SMALL AMOUNT OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
AVAILABLE...EXPECTING SNOW SHOWERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS AND EVEN INTO THE AFTERNOON. A DRY INTRUSION BEGINS TO PUNCH
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE BY THE AFTERNOON AND SHOULD
FINALLY CUTOFF THE ICE INTRODUCTION AND SNOW PRODUCTION WEST OF I-
35.

HEADLINE CONCERNS...CERTAINLY MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. HOWEVER...FELT THE NEED TO HOLD OFF
ON ISSUING ATTM ACROSS IN THE SOUTH TO AVOID THE POTENTIAL FOR
UPGRADING TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ONCE THIS SYSTEM SHOWS ITS
HAND.

SNOW FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS LOOK TO CONTINUE OVER THE EAST
TOMORROW NIGHT BUT THE WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE AND ANY
VISIBILITY CONCERNS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL. WIND CHILLS ARE THE MAIN
CONCERN BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOOK TO
DIP INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO OVER THE NORTH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY NUDGES ITS WAY
INTO THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. BRISK WINDS OF 10-20 KNOTS
LOOK TO PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES TO 20-25 BELOW BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND LIKELY NEED A HEADLINE DURING THIS TIME FRAME OVER
NORTHERN IOWA. HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD AND PROVIDES DRY AND COLD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. GFS DOES BRING A WEAK SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT BUT ECMWF REMAINS DRY AND LEFT DRY FORECAST
ATTM UNTIL BETTER MODEL CONSENSUS.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL PROGRESS NW-SE THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN VISIBILITY DETAILS DUE TO SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY AND THE EFFICIENCY OF BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WET EXISTING SNOWPACK...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR IFR VSBYS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FOR PROLONGED PERIOD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY DIP TO LIFR DURING BURSTS
OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE FOR 12 PLUS
HOURS. SIMILAR THINKING WITH WIND. GUSTS MAY REACH 40KTS OR MORE
FROM KDSM NORTH AND WEST...BUT DEPICTED MORE OF A LONG TERM
AVERAGE RATHER THAN PEAK.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO
GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 071907
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
107 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 107 PM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

HAVE DELAYED THE START TIME OF ENTIRE BLIZZARD WARNING SEGMENT TO
01Z. ALTHOUGH THE LEADING EDGE OF INCREASING WINDS WILL REACH THE FAR
NWRN CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON...APPRECIABLE
NEW SNOW APPEARS NECESSARY TO SUFFICIENTLY REDUCE VISIBILITIES.
THIS MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL HEAVIER PRECIP ALONG AND BEHIND SD SHORT
WV/PV ANOMALY REACHES IA LATER TONIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH EVEN
HIGHER WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

QUIET MORNING TO SET THE STAGE FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL IN OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE YIELDED SLIGHT
ASCENT IN OUR NORTH. LACK OF MOISTURE HAS PREVENTED PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE SFC. RIBBON OF WAA PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA HAS
KEPT DIURNAL RANGE TO A MINIMUM THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE U.S. FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. SFC LOW NEARING THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ALONG FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL MN. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP BRING SUNSHINE TO THE DMX CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CONFIDENCE OF SUNSHINE INCREASED...HAVE
BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH.
THESE VALUES MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW DEPTH REMAINING AS SFC ALBEDO
RELATIVELY MUCH LOWER. SFC WINDS TO BE HIGH ALL DAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPROACHES 3MB/100KM IN ADVANCE OF NEARING CYCLONE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL SEND TWO LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS SWEEPING
ACROSS IOWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST WILL CROSS OUR
AREA AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND BETWEEN ABOUT SUNSET
AND MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH THE TURBULENT FLOW AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT...IT IS LIKELY THAT STREAKS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE NEAR-SURFACE MIXED LAYER
WILL PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND MID MORNING MONDAY...DURING
WHICH TIME SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL PROBABLY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH OR EVEN HIGHER IN SNOW SHOWERS.
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND FLATTER TERRAIN PRESENT IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIKELIHOOD OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EITHER BEING WIDESPREAD OR AT LEAST OCCURRING
WITHIN THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WARNING BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES PERTAINING TO THE
CHARACTER OF THE SNOW PACK ALREADY IN PLACE...WHETHER IT WILL BE
CRUSTED OVER OR MORE EASILY LOFTED...AND ALSO TO THE COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...WHETHER THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED OR MORE
NUMEROUS AT ANY GIVEN TIME...HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF FACTORS
POINTING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EASILY OUTWEIGHS THE NUMBER OF
FACTORS AGAINST...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY EASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCLEAR AT WHAT POINT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
UNLIKELY...SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SOME PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED A
BIT EARLY.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE FORECAST IS OVERALL QUIETER AND MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD. COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS UNTIL A RIDGE PASSES OVER
AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES BETWEEN AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH VARIABILITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND LITTLE TO NO EXPECTED IMPACT THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL PROGRESS NW-SE THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN VISIBILITY DETAILS DUE TO SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY AND THE EFFICIENCY OF BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WET EXISTING SNOWPACK...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR IFR VSBYS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FOR PROLONGED PERIOD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY DIP TO LIFR DURING BURSTS
OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE FOR 12 PLUS
HOURS. SIMILAR THINKING WITH WIND. GUSTS MAY REACH 40KTS OR MORE
FROM KDSM NORTH AND WEST...BUT DEPICTED MORE OF A LONG TERM
AVERAGE RATHER THAN PEAK.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO
GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 071751
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

QUIET MORNING TO SET THE STAGE FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL IN OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE YIELDED SLIGHT
ASCENT IN OUR NORTH. LACK OF MOISTURE HAS PREVENTED PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE SFC. RIBBON OF WAA PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA HAS
KEPT DIURNAL RANGE TO A MINIMUM THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE U.S. FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. SFC LOW NEARING THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ALONG FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL MN. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP BRING SUNSHINE TO THE DMX CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CONFIDENCE OF SUNSHINE INCREASED...HAVE
BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH.
THESE VALUES MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW DEPTH REMAINING AS SFC ALBEDO
RELATIVELY MUCH LOWER. SFC WINDS TO BE HIGH ALL DAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPROACHES 3MB/100KM IN ADVANCE OF NEARING CYCLONE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL SEND TWO LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS SWEEPING
ACROSS IOWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST WILL CROSS OUR
AREA AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND BETWEEN ABOUT SUNSET
AND MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH THE TURBULENT FLOW AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT...IT IS LIKELY THAT STREAKS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE NEAR-SURFACE MIXED LAYER
WILL PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND MID MORNING MONDAY...DURING
WHICH TIME SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL PROBABLY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH OR EVEN HIGHER IN SNOW SHOWERS.
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND FLATTER TERRAIN PRESENT IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIKELIHOOD OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EITHER BEING WIDESPREAD OR AT LEAST OCCURRING
WITHIN THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WARNING BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES PERTAINING TO THE
CHARACTER OF THE SNOW PACK ALREADY IN PLACE...WHETHER IT WILL BE
CRUSTED OVER OR MORE EASILY LOFTED...AND ALSO TO THE COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...WHETHER THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED OR MORE
NUMEROUS AT ANY GIVEN TIME...HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF FACTORS
POINTING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EASILY OUTWEIGHS THE NUMBER OF
FACTORS AGAINST...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY EASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCLEAR AT WHAT POINT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
UNLIKELY...SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SOME PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED A
BIT EARLY.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE FORECAST IS OVERALL QUIETER AND MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD. COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS UNTIL A RIDGE PASSES OVER
AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES BETWEEN AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH VARIABILITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND LITTLE TO NO EXPECTED IMPACT THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL PROGRESS NW-SE THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN VISIBILITY DETAILS DUE TO SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY AND THE EFFICIENCY OF BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WET EXISTING SNOWPACK...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR IFR VSBYS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FOR PROLONGED PERIOD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY DIP TO LIFR DURING BURSTS
OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE FOR 12 PLUS
HOURS. SIMILAR THINKING WITH WIND. GUSTS MAY REACH 40KTS OR MORE
FROM KDSM NORTH AND WEST...BUT DEPICTED MORE OF A LONG TERM
AVERAGE RATHER THAN PEAK.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-MARSHALL-
STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 071751
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

QUIET MORNING TO SET THE STAGE FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL IN OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE YIELDED SLIGHT
ASCENT IN OUR NORTH. LACK OF MOISTURE HAS PREVENTED PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE SFC. RIBBON OF WAA PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA HAS
KEPT DIURNAL RANGE TO A MINIMUM THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE U.S. FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. SFC LOW NEARING THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ALONG FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL MN. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP BRING SUNSHINE TO THE DMX CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CONFIDENCE OF SUNSHINE INCREASED...HAVE
BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH.
THESE VALUES MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW DEPTH REMAINING AS SFC ALBEDO
RELATIVELY MUCH LOWER. SFC WINDS TO BE HIGH ALL DAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPROACHES 3MB/100KM IN ADVANCE OF NEARING CYCLONE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL SEND TWO LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS SWEEPING
ACROSS IOWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST WILL CROSS OUR
AREA AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND BETWEEN ABOUT SUNSET
AND MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH THE TURBULENT FLOW AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT...IT IS LIKELY THAT STREAKS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE NEAR-SURFACE MIXED LAYER
WILL PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND MID MORNING MONDAY...DURING
WHICH TIME SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL PROBABLY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH OR EVEN HIGHER IN SNOW SHOWERS.
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND FLATTER TERRAIN PRESENT IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIKELIHOOD OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EITHER BEING WIDESPREAD OR AT LEAST OCCURRING
WITHIN THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WARNING BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES PERTAINING TO THE
CHARACTER OF THE SNOW PACK ALREADY IN PLACE...WHETHER IT WILL BE
CRUSTED OVER OR MORE EASILY LOFTED...AND ALSO TO THE COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...WHETHER THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED OR MORE
NUMEROUS AT ANY GIVEN TIME...HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF FACTORS
POINTING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EASILY OUTWEIGHS THE NUMBER OF
FACTORS AGAINST...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY EASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCLEAR AT WHAT POINT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
UNLIKELY...SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SOME PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED A
BIT EARLY.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE FORECAST IS OVERALL QUIETER AND MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD. COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS UNTIL A RIDGE PASSES OVER
AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES BETWEEN AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH VARIABILITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND LITTLE TO NO EXPECTED IMPACT THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL PROGRESS NW-SE THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN VISIBILITY DETAILS DUE TO SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY AND THE EFFICIENCY OF BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WET EXISTING SNOWPACK...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR IFR VSBYS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FOR PROLONGED PERIOD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY DIP TO LIFR DURING BURSTS
OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE FOR 12 PLUS
HOURS. SIMILAR THINKING WITH WIND. GUSTS MAY REACH 40KTS OR MORE
FROM KDSM NORTH AND WEST...BUT DEPICTED MORE OF A LONG TERM
AVERAGE RATHER THAN PEAK.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-MARSHALL-
STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 071751
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

QUIET MORNING TO SET THE STAGE FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL IN OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE YIELDED SLIGHT
ASCENT IN OUR NORTH. LACK OF MOISTURE HAS PREVENTED PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE SFC. RIBBON OF WAA PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA HAS
KEPT DIURNAL RANGE TO A MINIMUM THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE U.S. FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. SFC LOW NEARING THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ALONG FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL MN. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP BRING SUNSHINE TO THE DMX CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CONFIDENCE OF SUNSHINE INCREASED...HAVE
BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH.
THESE VALUES MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW DEPTH REMAINING AS SFC ALBEDO
RELATIVELY MUCH LOWER. SFC WINDS TO BE HIGH ALL DAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPROACHES 3MB/100KM IN ADVANCE OF NEARING CYCLONE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL SEND TWO LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS SWEEPING
ACROSS IOWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST WILL CROSS OUR
AREA AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND BETWEEN ABOUT SUNSET
AND MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH THE TURBULENT FLOW AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT...IT IS LIKELY THAT STREAKS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE NEAR-SURFACE MIXED LAYER
WILL PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND MID MORNING MONDAY...DURING
WHICH TIME SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL PROBABLY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH OR EVEN HIGHER IN SNOW SHOWERS.
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND FLATTER TERRAIN PRESENT IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIKELIHOOD OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EITHER BEING WIDESPREAD OR AT LEAST OCCURRING
WITHIN THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WARNING BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES PERTAINING TO THE
CHARACTER OF THE SNOW PACK ALREADY IN PLACE...WHETHER IT WILL BE
CRUSTED OVER OR MORE EASILY LOFTED...AND ALSO TO THE COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...WHETHER THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED OR MORE
NUMEROUS AT ANY GIVEN TIME...HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF FACTORS
POINTING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EASILY OUTWEIGHS THE NUMBER OF
FACTORS AGAINST...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY EASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCLEAR AT WHAT POINT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
UNLIKELY...SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SOME PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED A
BIT EARLY.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE FORECAST IS OVERALL QUIETER AND MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD. COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS UNTIL A RIDGE PASSES OVER
AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES BETWEEN AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH VARIABILITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND LITTLE TO NO EXPECTED IMPACT THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...07/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON ALTHOUGH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO A COMBINATION OF CLOUDS...SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL PROGRESS NW-SE THROUGH THE AREA INTO THE
EVENING. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN VISIBILITY DETAILS DUE TO SNOW
SHOWER INTENSITY AND THE EFFICIENCY OF BLOWING SNOW DUE TO
RELATIVELY WET EXISTING SNOWPACK...BUT THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS
FOR IFR VSBYS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW FOR PROLONGED PERIOD THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING. VSBYS MAY DIP TO LIFR DURING BURSTS
OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS...BUT DID NOT WANT TO INCLUDE FOR 12 PLUS
HOURS. SIMILAR THINKING WITH WIND. GUSTS MAY REACH 40KTS OR MORE
FROM KDSM NORTH AND WEST...BUT DEPICTED MORE OF A LONG TERM
AVERAGE RATHER THAN PEAK.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-MARSHALL-
STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 071151
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
551 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

QUIET MORNING TO SET THE STAGE FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL IN OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE YIELDED SLIGHT
ASCENT IN OUR NORTH. LACK OF MOISTURE HAS PREVENTED PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE SFC. RIBBON OF WAA PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA HAS
KEPT DIURNAL RANGE TO A MINIMUM THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE U.S. FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. SFC LOW NEARING THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ALONG FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL MN. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP BRING SUNSHINE TO THE DMX CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CONFIDENCE OF SUNSHINE INCREASED...HAVE
BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH.
THESE VALUES MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW DEPTH REMAINING AS SFC ALBEDO
RELATIVELY MUCH LOWER. SFC WINDS TO BE HIGH ALL DAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPROACHES 3MB/100KM IN ADVANCE OF NEARING CYCLONE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL SEND TWO LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS SWEEPING
ACROSS IOWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST WILL CROSS OUR
AREA AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND BETWEEN ABOUT SUNSET
AND MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH THE TURBULENT FLOW AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT...IT IS LIKELY THAT STREAKS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE NEAR-SURFACE MIXED LAYER
WILL PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND MID MORNING MONDAY...DURING
WHICH TIME SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL PROBABLY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH OR EVEN HIGHER IN SNOW SHOWERS.
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND FLATTER TERRAIN PRESENT IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIKELIHOOD OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EITHER BEING WIDESPREAD OR AT LEAST OCCURRING
WITHIN THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WARNING BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES PERTAINING TO THE
CHARACTER OF THE SNOW PACK ALREADY IN PLACE...WHETHER IT WILL BE
CRUSTED OVER OR MORE EASILY LOFTED...AND ALSO TO THE COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...WHETHER THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED OR MORE
NUMEROUS AT ANY GIVEN TIME...HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF FACTORS
POINTING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EASILY OUTWEIGHS THE NUMBER OF
FACTORS AGAINST...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY EASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCLEAR AT WHAT POINT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
UNLIKELY...SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SOME PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED A
BIT EARLY.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE FORECAST IS OVERALL QUIETER AND MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD. COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS UNTIL A RIDGE PASSES OVER
AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES BETWEEN AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH VARIABILITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND LITTLE TO NO EXPECTED IMPACT THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...07/12Z
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO
MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BEFORE BLOWING SNOW
ARRIVES TO DROP CATEGORIES. FOR NOW...HAVE 1/2 SM VSBY IN
GRIDS...BUT AT KMCW...KFOD...AND KALO...VSBY MAY APPROACH ZERO AT
TIMES. HOLDING STRONG WINDS INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP BLOWING
SNOW AT KMCW...KFOD...AND KALO AND LOW VSBYS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-MARSHALL-
STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...KOTENBERG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 071151
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
551 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION FORECAST...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

QUIET MORNING TO SET THE STAGE FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL IN OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE YIELDED SLIGHT
ASCENT IN OUR NORTH. LACK OF MOISTURE HAS PREVENTED PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE SFC. RIBBON OF WAA PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA HAS
KEPT DIURNAL RANGE TO A MINIMUM THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE U.S. FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. SFC LOW NEARING THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ALONG FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL MN. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP BRING SUNSHINE TO THE DMX CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CONFIDENCE OF SUNSHINE INCREASED...HAVE
BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH.
THESE VALUES MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW DEPTH REMAINING AS SFC ALBEDO
RELATIVELY MUCH LOWER. SFC WINDS TO BE HIGH ALL DAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPROACHES 3MB/100KM IN ADVANCE OF NEARING CYCLONE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL SEND TWO LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS SWEEPING
ACROSS IOWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST WILL CROSS OUR
AREA AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND BETWEEN ABOUT SUNSET
AND MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH THE TURBULENT FLOW AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT...IT IS LIKELY THAT STREAKS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE NEAR-SURFACE MIXED LAYER
WILL PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND MID MORNING MONDAY...DURING
WHICH TIME SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL PROBABLY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH OR EVEN HIGHER IN SNOW SHOWERS.
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND FLATTER TERRAIN PRESENT IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIKELIHOOD OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EITHER BEING WIDESPREAD OR AT LEAST OCCURRING
WITHIN THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WARNING BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES PERTAINING TO THE
CHARACTER OF THE SNOW PACK ALREADY IN PLACE...WHETHER IT WILL BE
CRUSTED OVER OR MORE EASILY LOFTED...AND ALSO TO THE COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...WHETHER THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED OR MORE
NUMEROUS AT ANY GIVEN TIME...HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF FACTORS
POINTING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EASILY OUTWEIGHS THE NUMBER OF
FACTORS AGAINST...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY EASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCLEAR AT WHAT POINT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
UNLIKELY...SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SOME PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED A
BIT EARLY.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE FORECAST IS OVERALL QUIETER AND MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD. COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS UNTIL A RIDGE PASSES OVER
AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES BETWEEN AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH VARIABILITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND LITTLE TO NO EXPECTED IMPACT THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...07/12Z
ISSUED AT 544 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

PROVERBIAL CALM BEFORE THE STORM AS VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST INTO
MID SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR BEFORE BLOWING SNOW
ARRIVES TO DROP CATEGORIES. FOR NOW...HAVE 1/2 SM VSBY IN
GRIDS...BUT AT KMCW...KFOD...AND KALO...VSBY MAY APPROACH ZERO AT
TIMES. HOLDING STRONG WINDS INTO MONDAY...WHICH WILL KEEP BLOWING
SNOW AT KMCW...KFOD...AND KALO AND LOW VSBYS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-MARSHALL-
STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...KOTENBERG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 071001
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
401 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

QUIET MORNING TO SET THE STAGE FOR BLOWING SNOW/BLIZZARD
POTENTIAL IN OUR NORTH FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. WEAK AREA OF MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE YIELDED SLIGHT
ASCENT IN OUR NORTH. LACK OF MOISTURE HAS PREVENTED PRECIP FROM
REACHING THE SFC. RIBBON OF WAA PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA HAS
KEPT DIURNAL RANGE TO A MINIMUM THIS MORNING.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WORKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE U.S. FROM SOUTHERN
CANADA. SFC LOW NEARING THE U.S./CANADA BORDER ALONG FAR NORTH-
CENTRAL MN. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
POST-FRONTAL SUBSIDENCE WILL HELP BRING SUNSHINE TO THE DMX CWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH CONFIDENCE OF SUNSHINE INCREASED...HAVE
BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS FOR SUNDAY TO LOW TO MID 40S ACROSS SOUTH.
THESE VALUES MAY STILL BE A FEW DEGREES TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW DEPTH REMAINING AS SFC ALBEDO
RELATIVELY MUCH LOWER. SFC WINDS TO BE HIGH ALL DAY AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT APPROACHES 3MB/100KM IN ADVANCE OF NEARING CYCLONE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST SUN FEB 7 2016

...BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY...

A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS WISCONSIN TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WILL SEND TWO LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS SWEEPING
ACROSS IOWA FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. THE FIRST WILL CROSS OUR
AREA AROUND THE LATE AFTERNOON AND THE SECOND BETWEEN ABOUT SUNSET
AND MIDNIGHT. THE PASSAGE OF THESE TROUGHS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH
A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTINESS...ALONG WITH
INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME
MODEST INSTABILITY AND COMBINED WITH THE TURBULENT FLOW AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT...IT IS LIKELY THAT STREAKS OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
MEANWHILE WIND SPEEDS AT THE TOP OF THE NEAR-SURFACE MIXED LAYER
WILL PEAK BETWEEN ABOUT MIDNIGHT AND MID MORNING MONDAY...DURING
WHICH TIME SURFACE WIND SPEEDS WILL PROBABLY REACH 25 TO 35 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 45 MPH OR EVEN HIGHER IN SNOW SHOWERS.
COMBINED WITH THE DEEP SNOW PACK AND FLATTER TERRAIN PRESENT IN
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT LIKELIHOOD OF
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EITHER BEING WIDESPREAD OR AT LEAST OCCURRING
WITHIN THE BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS...AND THE BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN
UPGRADED TO A WARNING BEGINNING LATE TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH
MONDAY. THERE ARE STILL SOME UNCERTAINTIES PERTAINING TO THE
CHARACTER OF THE SNOW PACK ALREADY IN PLACE...WHETHER IT WILL BE
CRUSTED OVER OR MORE EASILY LOFTED...AND ALSO TO THE COVERAGE OF
SNOW SHOWERS...WHETHER THEY WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED OR MORE
NUMEROUS AT ANY GIVEN TIME...HOWEVER THE NUMBER OF FACTORS
POINTING TO BLIZZARD CONDITIONS EASILY OUTWEIGHS THE NUMBER OF
FACTORS AGAINST...ESPECIALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. DURING THE
DAY ON MONDAY THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH FROM WEST TO
EAST ALONG WITH GRADUALLY EASING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON. IT IS
UNCLEAR AT WHAT POINT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL BECOME
UNLIKELY...SO THE WARNING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED UNTIL 6 PM MONDAY
WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT SOME PORTIONS MAY NEED TO BE CANCELLED A
BIT EARLY.

FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD THE FORECAST IS OVERALL QUIETER AND MORE
STRAIGHTFORWARD. COOLER WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST WINDS UNTIL A RIDGE PASSES OVER
AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN AN INCONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW AT TIMES BETWEEN AROUND WEDNESDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT GIVEN THE HIGH VARIABILITY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS
AND LITTLE TO NO EXPECTED IMPACT THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...07/06Z
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUN EARLY AFTERNOON BUT A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DROPPING VERY COLD AIR ACROSS
IOWA AND IN THE PROCESS...INCREASING A NW WIND ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS
FROM NW TO SE. STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AFT 08/00Z. -SHSN WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 00Z AND ALONG WITH STRONG PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW
WILL BEGIN TO CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FURTHER FROM 06Z ON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-MARSHALL-
STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

BLIZZARD WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 070546
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1145 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN INTO THE NIGHT. SHORT WAVE/PV
ANOMALY MOVING FROM MT INTO THE DAKOTAS HAS ALREADY SPREAD WEAK TO
MODERATE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING INTO IA BUT IS
QUITE MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND EVEN
CEILING REDUCTIONS. A WEDGE OF STRATUS STILL LINGERS FROM CENTRAL
INTO NERN IA AT 21Z BUT IS MOVING OUT AND/OR ERODING AND SHOULD
NOT BE A FACTOR INTO THE EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED VERTICAL
MOTION WILL CROSS IA TONIGHT...WITH RISE/FALL COUPLET REACHING THE
SERN QUARTER THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL NOT MATERIALIZE FOR PRECIP. THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST
WITH NOTHING BEYOND MID CLOUDS TONIGHT.

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRESSURE FALLS THROUGH THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ALSO REFLECTING THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE FAIRLY STEADY TO SLOWING RISING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

MAIN FOCUS WAS ON THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A POTENT CLIPPER PUNCHES INTO THE STATE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BRINGS VERY STRONG WINDS AND CAA INTO
THE THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES AND LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND ATTM...WITH A LITTLE MORE EMPHASIS ON THE NAM/GFS
FOR WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STRONG PV ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EJECT OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 00Z MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY.

SEVERAL CONCERNS WRT TO THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
FIRST...WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER RANGE FROM 40 TO 45
KNOTS...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING
DEVELOPING LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF THESE LOOK TO MATERIALIZE AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE
EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER. HOWEVER THE KEY COMPONENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS THE FALLING SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUNDINGS
BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED...AT LEAST UP TO 700MB...B/T 21Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 03Z MONDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND DEEPEN
EVEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENT THERE WILL
BE ICE INTRODUCTION ICE INTO THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE FALLING SNOW
BY SUNDAY EVENING. PLUS WITH THE CAA...SOUNDINGS COOL TO NEARLY
ENTIRELY INTO THE DENDRITIC ZONE B/T 06-12Z MONDAY. ALBEIT...THE
OMEGA IS WEAK WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER BUT WITH THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND EVEN WEAK UNSTABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES...THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ROLLS. THE HIRES
MODELS...ARW/NMM/SPC 4KM WRF ALL HINTING ON CONVECTIVE BANDS
SETTING UP TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE DEEPLY SATURATED
SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY MONDAY...THUS EXTENDED THE WATCH THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS
EXPECTING FALLING SNOW TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. CERTAINLY HAVE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FALLING SNOW...BUT THE WIDESPREAD NATURE
OF IT STILL IN LOW CONFIDENCE...KEPT WITH BLIZZARD WATCH ATTM AND
ANY COUNTIES BORDERING THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE OTHER
CAVEAT IS THE CURRENT SNOW PACK. THERE IS LIKELY A DECENT CRUST IN
PLACE WITH THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AND REFREEZE TODAY
AND A LITTLE MELTING LOOKS POSSIBLE TOMORROW BEFORE THE CAA
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BREAK THROUGH SOME OF THE CRUST OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND AID IN
THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...07/06Z
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUN EARLY AFTERNOON BUT A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DROPPING VERY COLD AIR ACROSS
IOWA AND IN THE PROCESS...INCREASING A NW WIND ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS
FROM NW TO SE.  STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AFT 08/00Z.  -SHSN WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 00Z AND ALONG WITH STRONG PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FURTHER FROM 06Z ON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO
GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 070546
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1145 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN INTO THE NIGHT. SHORT WAVE/PV
ANOMALY MOVING FROM MT INTO THE DAKOTAS HAS ALREADY SPREAD WEAK TO
MODERATE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING INTO IA BUT IS
QUITE MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND EVEN
CEILING REDUCTIONS. A WEDGE OF STRATUS STILL LINGERS FROM CENTRAL
INTO NERN IA AT 21Z BUT IS MOVING OUT AND/OR ERODING AND SHOULD
NOT BE A FACTOR INTO THE EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED VERTICAL
MOTION WILL CROSS IA TONIGHT...WITH RISE/FALL COUPLET REACHING THE
SERN QUARTER THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL NOT MATERIALIZE FOR PRECIP. THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST
WITH NOTHING BEYOND MID CLOUDS TONIGHT.

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRESSURE FALLS THROUGH THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ALSO REFLECTING THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE FAIRLY STEADY TO SLOWING RISING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

MAIN FOCUS WAS ON THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A POTENT CLIPPER PUNCHES INTO THE STATE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BRINGS VERY STRONG WINDS AND CAA INTO
THE THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES AND LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND ATTM...WITH A LITTLE MORE EMPHASIS ON THE NAM/GFS
FOR WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STRONG PV ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EJECT OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 00Z MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY.

SEVERAL CONCERNS WRT TO THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
FIRST...WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER RANGE FROM 40 TO 45
KNOTS...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING
DEVELOPING LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF THESE LOOK TO MATERIALIZE AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE
EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER. HOWEVER THE KEY COMPONENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS THE FALLING SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUNDINGS
BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED...AT LEAST UP TO 700MB...B/T 21Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 03Z MONDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND DEEPEN
EVEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENT THERE WILL
BE ICE INTRODUCTION ICE INTO THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE FALLING SNOW
BY SUNDAY EVENING. PLUS WITH THE CAA...SOUNDINGS COOL TO NEARLY
ENTIRELY INTO THE DENDRITIC ZONE B/T 06-12Z MONDAY. ALBEIT...THE
OMEGA IS WEAK WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER BUT WITH THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND EVEN WEAK UNSTABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES...THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ROLLS. THE HIRES
MODELS...ARW/NMM/SPC 4KM WRF ALL HINTING ON CONVECTIVE BANDS
SETTING UP TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE DEEPLY SATURATED
SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY MONDAY...THUS EXTENDED THE WATCH THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS
EXPECTING FALLING SNOW TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. CERTAINLY HAVE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FALLING SNOW...BUT THE WIDESPREAD NATURE
OF IT STILL IN LOW CONFIDENCE...KEPT WITH BLIZZARD WATCH ATTM AND
ANY COUNTIES BORDERING THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE OTHER
CAVEAT IS THE CURRENT SNOW PACK. THERE IS LIKELY A DECENT CRUST IN
PLACE WITH THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AND REFREEZE TODAY
AND A LITTLE MELTING LOOKS POSSIBLE TOMORROW BEFORE THE CAA
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BREAK THROUGH SOME OF THE CRUST OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND AID IN
THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...07/06Z
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUN EARLY AFTERNOON BUT A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DROPPING VERY COLD AIR ACROSS
IOWA AND IN THE PROCESS...INCREASING A NW WIND ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS
FROM NW TO SE.  STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AFT 08/00Z.  -SHSN WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 00Z AND ALONG WITH STRONG PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FURTHER FROM 06Z ON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO
GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 070546
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1145 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN INTO THE NIGHT. SHORT WAVE/PV
ANOMALY MOVING FROM MT INTO THE DAKOTAS HAS ALREADY SPREAD WEAK TO
MODERATE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING INTO IA BUT IS
QUITE MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND EVEN
CEILING REDUCTIONS. A WEDGE OF STRATUS STILL LINGERS FROM CENTRAL
INTO NERN IA AT 21Z BUT IS MOVING OUT AND/OR ERODING AND SHOULD
NOT BE A FACTOR INTO THE EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED VERTICAL
MOTION WILL CROSS IA TONIGHT...WITH RISE/FALL COUPLET REACHING THE
SERN QUARTER THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL NOT MATERIALIZE FOR PRECIP. THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST
WITH NOTHING BEYOND MID CLOUDS TONIGHT.

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRESSURE FALLS THROUGH THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ALSO REFLECTING THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE FAIRLY STEADY TO SLOWING RISING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

MAIN FOCUS WAS ON THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A POTENT CLIPPER PUNCHES INTO THE STATE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BRINGS VERY STRONG WINDS AND CAA INTO
THE THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES AND LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND ATTM...WITH A LITTLE MORE EMPHASIS ON THE NAM/GFS
FOR WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STRONG PV ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EJECT OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 00Z MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY.

SEVERAL CONCERNS WRT TO THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
FIRST...WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER RANGE FROM 40 TO 45
KNOTS...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING
DEVELOPING LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF THESE LOOK TO MATERIALIZE AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE
EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER. HOWEVER THE KEY COMPONENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS THE FALLING SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUNDINGS
BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED...AT LEAST UP TO 700MB...B/T 21Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 03Z MONDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND DEEPEN
EVEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENT THERE WILL
BE ICE INTRODUCTION ICE INTO THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE FALLING SNOW
BY SUNDAY EVENING. PLUS WITH THE CAA...SOUNDINGS COOL TO NEARLY
ENTIRELY INTO THE DENDRITIC ZONE B/T 06-12Z MONDAY. ALBEIT...THE
OMEGA IS WEAK WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER BUT WITH THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND EVEN WEAK UNSTABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES...THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ROLLS. THE HIRES
MODELS...ARW/NMM/SPC 4KM WRF ALL HINTING ON CONVECTIVE BANDS
SETTING UP TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE DEEPLY SATURATED
SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY MONDAY...THUS EXTENDED THE WATCH THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS
EXPECTING FALLING SNOW TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. CERTAINLY HAVE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FALLING SNOW...BUT THE WIDESPREAD NATURE
OF IT STILL IN LOW CONFIDENCE...KEPT WITH BLIZZARD WATCH ATTM AND
ANY COUNTIES BORDERING THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE OTHER
CAVEAT IS THE CURRENT SNOW PACK. THERE IS LIKELY A DECENT CRUST IN
PLACE WITH THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AND REFREEZE TODAY
AND A LITTLE MELTING LOOKS POSSIBLE TOMORROW BEFORE THE CAA
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BREAK THROUGH SOME OF THE CRUST OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND AID IN
THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...07/06Z
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUN EARLY AFTERNOON BUT A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION DROPPING VERY COLD AIR ACROSS
IOWA AND IN THE PROCESS...INCREASING A NW WIND ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS
FROM NW TO SE.  STRONGEST WINDS WILL OCCUR AFT 08/00Z.  -SHSN WILL
DEVELOP AROUND 00Z AND ALONG WITH STRONG PRODUCING BLOWING SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS.  CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DETERIORATE FURTHER FROM 06Z ON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO
GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 070015
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
613 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN INTO THE NIGHT. SHORT WAVE/PV
ANOMALY MOVING FROM MT INTO THE DAKOTAS HAS ALREADY SPREAD WEAK TO
MODERATE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING INTO IA BUT IS
QUITE MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND EVEN
CEILING REDUCTIONS. A WEDGE OF STRATUS STILL LINGERS FROM CENTRAL
INTO NERN IA AT 21Z BUT IS MOVING OUT AND/OR ERODING AND SHOULD
NOT BE A FACTOR INTO THE EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED VERTICAL
MOTION WILL CROSS IA TONIGHT...WITH RISE/FALL COUPLET REACHING THE
SERN QUARTER THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL NOT MATERIALIZE FOR PRECIP. THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST
WITH NOTHING BEYOND MID CLOUDS TONIGHT.

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRESSURE FALLS THROUGH THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ALSO REFLECTING THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE FAIRLY STEADY TO SLOWING RISING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

MAIN FOCUS WAS ON THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A POTENT CLIPPER PUNCHES INTO THE STATE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BRINGS VERY STRONG WINDS AND CAA INTO
THE THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES AND LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND ATTM...WITH A LITTLE MORE EMPHASIS ON THE NAM/GFS
FOR WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STRONG PV ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EJECT OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 00Z MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY.

SEVERAL CONCERNS WRT TO THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
FIRST...WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER RANGE FROM 40 TO 45
KNOTS...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING
DEVELOPING LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF THESE LOOK TO MATERIALIZE AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE
EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER. HOWEVER THE KEY COMPONENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS THE FALLING SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUNDINGS
BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED...AT LEAST UP TO 700MB...B/T 21Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 03Z MONDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND DEEPEN
EVEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENT THERE WILL
BE ICE INTRODUCTION ICE INTO THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE FALLING SNOW
BY SUNDAY EVENING. PLUS WITH THE CAA...SOUNDINGS COOL TO NEARLY
ENTIRELY INTO THE DENDRITIC ZONE B/T 06-12Z MONDAY. ALBEIT...THE
OMEGA IS WEAK WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER BUT WITH THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND EVEN WEAK UNSTABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES...THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ROLLS. THE HIRES
MODELS...ARW/NMM/SPC 4KM WRF ALL HINTING ON CONVECTIVE BANDS
SETTING UP TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE DEEPLY SATURATED
SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY MONDAY...THUS EXTENDED THE WATCH THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS
EXPECTING FALLING SNOW TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. CERTAINLY HAVE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FALLING SNOW...BUT THE WIDESPREAD NATURE
OF IT STILL IN LOW CONFIDENCE...KEPT WITH BLIZZARD WATCH ATTM AND
ANY COUNTIES BORDERING THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE OTHER
CAVEAT IS THE CURRENT SNOW PACK. THERE IS LIKELY A DECENT CRUST IN
PLACE WITH THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AND REFREEZE TODAY
AND A LITTLE MELTING LOOKS POSSIBLE TOMORROW BEFORE THE CAA
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BREAK THROUGH SOME OF THE CRUST OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND AID IN
THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...07/00Z
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUN EARLY AFTERNOON BUT A WINTER STORM WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TAFS ACROSS NW IA WITH WINDS BECOMING NW AND
INCREASING TO 20G30KTS.  -SHSN MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS 00Z ALONG WITH
AREAS OF BLSN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO
GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 070015
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
613 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN INTO THE NIGHT. SHORT WAVE/PV
ANOMALY MOVING FROM MT INTO THE DAKOTAS HAS ALREADY SPREAD WEAK TO
MODERATE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING INTO IA BUT IS
QUITE MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND EVEN
CEILING REDUCTIONS. A WEDGE OF STRATUS STILL LINGERS FROM CENTRAL
INTO NERN IA AT 21Z BUT IS MOVING OUT AND/OR ERODING AND SHOULD
NOT BE A FACTOR INTO THE EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED VERTICAL
MOTION WILL CROSS IA TONIGHT...WITH RISE/FALL COUPLET REACHING THE
SERN QUARTER THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL NOT MATERIALIZE FOR PRECIP. THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST
WITH NOTHING BEYOND MID CLOUDS TONIGHT.

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRESSURE FALLS THROUGH THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ALSO REFLECTING THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE FAIRLY STEADY TO SLOWING RISING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

MAIN FOCUS WAS ON THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A POTENT CLIPPER PUNCHES INTO THE STATE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BRINGS VERY STRONG WINDS AND CAA INTO
THE THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES AND LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND ATTM...WITH A LITTLE MORE EMPHASIS ON THE NAM/GFS
FOR WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STRONG PV ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EJECT OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 00Z MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY.

SEVERAL CONCERNS WRT TO THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
FIRST...WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER RANGE FROM 40 TO 45
KNOTS...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING
DEVELOPING LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF THESE LOOK TO MATERIALIZE AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE
EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER. HOWEVER THE KEY COMPONENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS THE FALLING SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUNDINGS
BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED...AT LEAST UP TO 700MB...B/T 21Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 03Z MONDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND DEEPEN
EVEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENT THERE WILL
BE ICE INTRODUCTION ICE INTO THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE FALLING SNOW
BY SUNDAY EVENING. PLUS WITH THE CAA...SOUNDINGS COOL TO NEARLY
ENTIRELY INTO THE DENDRITIC ZONE B/T 06-12Z MONDAY. ALBEIT...THE
OMEGA IS WEAK WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER BUT WITH THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND EVEN WEAK UNSTABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES...THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ROLLS. THE HIRES
MODELS...ARW/NMM/SPC 4KM WRF ALL HINTING ON CONVECTIVE BANDS
SETTING UP TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE DEEPLY SATURATED
SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY MONDAY...THUS EXTENDED THE WATCH THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS
EXPECTING FALLING SNOW TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. CERTAINLY HAVE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FALLING SNOW...BUT THE WIDESPREAD NATURE
OF IT STILL IN LOW CONFIDENCE...KEPT WITH BLIZZARD WATCH ATTM AND
ANY COUNTIES BORDERING THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE OTHER
CAVEAT IS THE CURRENT SNOW PACK. THERE IS LIKELY A DECENT CRUST IN
PLACE WITH THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AND REFREEZE TODAY
AND A LITTLE MELTING LOOKS POSSIBLE TOMORROW BEFORE THE CAA
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BREAK THROUGH SOME OF THE CRUST OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND AID IN
THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...07/00Z
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUN EARLY AFTERNOON BUT A WINTER STORM WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TAFS ACROSS NW IA WITH WINDS BECOMING NW AND
INCREASING TO 20G30KTS.  -SHSN MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS 00Z ALONG WITH
AREAS OF BLSN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO
GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 070015
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
613 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN INTO THE NIGHT. SHORT WAVE/PV
ANOMALY MOVING FROM MT INTO THE DAKOTAS HAS ALREADY SPREAD WEAK TO
MODERATE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING INTO IA BUT IS
QUITE MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND EVEN
CEILING REDUCTIONS. A WEDGE OF STRATUS STILL LINGERS FROM CENTRAL
INTO NERN IA AT 21Z BUT IS MOVING OUT AND/OR ERODING AND SHOULD
NOT BE A FACTOR INTO THE EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED VERTICAL
MOTION WILL CROSS IA TONIGHT...WITH RISE/FALL COUPLET REACHING THE
SERN QUARTER THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL NOT MATERIALIZE FOR PRECIP. THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST
WITH NOTHING BEYOND MID CLOUDS TONIGHT.

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRESSURE FALLS THROUGH THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ALSO REFLECTING THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE FAIRLY STEADY TO SLOWING RISING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

MAIN FOCUS WAS ON THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A POTENT CLIPPER PUNCHES INTO THE STATE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BRINGS VERY STRONG WINDS AND CAA INTO
THE THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES AND LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND ATTM...WITH A LITTLE MORE EMPHASIS ON THE NAM/GFS
FOR WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STRONG PV ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EJECT OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 00Z MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY.

SEVERAL CONCERNS WRT TO THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
FIRST...WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER RANGE FROM 40 TO 45
KNOTS...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING
DEVELOPING LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF THESE LOOK TO MATERIALIZE AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE
EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER. HOWEVER THE KEY COMPONENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS THE FALLING SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUNDINGS
BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED...AT LEAST UP TO 700MB...B/T 21Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 03Z MONDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND DEEPEN
EVEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENT THERE WILL
BE ICE INTRODUCTION ICE INTO THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE FALLING SNOW
BY SUNDAY EVENING. PLUS WITH THE CAA...SOUNDINGS COOL TO NEARLY
ENTIRELY INTO THE DENDRITIC ZONE B/T 06-12Z MONDAY. ALBEIT...THE
OMEGA IS WEAK WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER BUT WITH THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND EVEN WEAK UNSTABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES...THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ROLLS. THE HIRES
MODELS...ARW/NMM/SPC 4KM WRF ALL HINTING ON CONVECTIVE BANDS
SETTING UP TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE DEEPLY SATURATED
SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY MONDAY...THUS EXTENDED THE WATCH THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS
EXPECTING FALLING SNOW TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. CERTAINLY HAVE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FALLING SNOW...BUT THE WIDESPREAD NATURE
OF IT STILL IN LOW CONFIDENCE...KEPT WITH BLIZZARD WATCH ATTM AND
ANY COUNTIES BORDERING THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE OTHER
CAVEAT IS THE CURRENT SNOW PACK. THERE IS LIKELY A DECENT CRUST IN
PLACE WITH THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AND REFREEZE TODAY
AND A LITTLE MELTING LOOKS POSSIBLE TOMORROW BEFORE THE CAA
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BREAK THROUGH SOME OF THE CRUST OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND AID IN
THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...07/00Z
ISSUED AT 613 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

VFR EXPECTED THROUGH SUN EARLY AFTERNOON BUT A WINTER STORM WILL
BEGIN TO IMPACT TAFS ACROSS NW IA WITH WINDS BECOMING NW AND
INCREASING TO 20G30KTS.  -SHSN MAY DEVELOP TOWARDS 00Z ALONG WITH
AREAS OF BLSN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO
GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 062154
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

LITTLE SENSIBLE WEATHER OF CONCERN INTO THE NIGHT. SHORT WAVE/PV
ANOMALY MOVING FROM MT INTO THE DAKOTAS HAS ALREADY SPREAD WEAK TO
MODERATE KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING INTO IA BUT IS
QUITE MOISTURE STARVED WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP AND EVEN
CEILING REDUCTIONS. A WEDGE OF STRATUS STILL LINGERS FROM CENTRAL
INTO NERN IA AT 21Z BUT IS MOVING OUT AND/OR ERODING AND SHOULD
NOT BE A FACTOR INTO THE EVENING. THE AFOREMENTIONED VERTICAL
MOTION WILL CROSS IA TONIGHT...WITH RISE/FALL COUPLET REACHING THE
SERN QUARTER THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z...BUT SUFFICIENT
MOISTURE WILL NOT MATERIALIZE FOR PRECIP. THUS HAVE A DRY FORECAST
WITH NOTHING BEYOND MID CLOUDS TONIGHT.

20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS WIDESPREAD PRESSURE FALLS THROUGH THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ALSO REFLECTING THE WARM ADVECTION
ALOFT SO EXPECT TEMPS TO BE FAIRLY STEADY TO SLOWING RISING
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

MAIN FOCUS WAS ON THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY. A POTENT CLIPPER PUNCHES INTO THE STATE
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND BRINGS VERY STRONG WINDS AND CAA INTO
THE THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE FEATURES AND LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND ATTM...WITH A LITTLE MORE EMPHASIS ON THE NAM/GFS
FOR WINDS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...STRONG PV ANOMALY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EJECT OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA WITH THE SURFACE LOW SLIDING OVER
THE ARROWHEAD OF MN BY 00Z MONDAY AND THEN INTO THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY.

SEVERAL CONCERNS WRT TO THE POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
FIRST...WINDS ATOP THE MIXED LAYER RANGE FROM 40 TO 45
KNOTS...WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP MIXING
DEVELOPING LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AND CONTINUES INTO MONDAY. THE
MAJORITY OF THESE LOOK TO MATERIALIZE AT THE SURFACE DUE TO THE
EFFICIENT MOMENTUM TRANSFER. HOWEVER THE KEY COMPONENT WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS THE FALLING SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. SOUNDINGS
BECOME DEEPLY SATURATED...AT LEAST UP TO 700MB...B/T 21Z SUNDAY
THROUGH 03Z MONDAY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND DEEPEN
EVEN FURTHER OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONFIDENT THERE WILL
BE ICE INTRODUCTION ICE INTO THE COLUMN TO PRODUCE FALLING SNOW
BY SUNDAY EVENING. PLUS WITH THE CAA...SOUNDINGS COOL TO NEARLY
ENTIRELY INTO THE DENDRITIC ZONE B/T 06-12Z MONDAY. ALBEIT...THE
OMEGA IS WEAK WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER BUT WITH THE STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND EVEN WEAK UNSTABLE THETA-E LAPSE RATES...THIS SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME CONVECTIVE ROLLS. THE HIRES
MODELS...ARW/NMM/SPC 4KM WRF ALL HINTING ON CONVECTIVE BANDS
SETTING UP TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE DEEPLY SATURATED
SOUNDINGS WITHIN THE DENDRITIC LAYER CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY MONDAY...THUS EXTENDED THE WATCH THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY AS
EXPECTING FALLING SNOW TO PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY. CERTAINLY HAVE
A HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FALLING SNOW...BUT THE WIDESPREAD NATURE
OF IT STILL IN LOW CONFIDENCE...KEPT WITH BLIZZARD WATCH ATTM AND
ANY COUNTIES BORDERING THE WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED WINTER WX
ADVISORY FOR BLOWING SNOW TOMORROW NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE OTHER
CAVEAT IS THE CURRENT SNOW PACK. THERE IS LIKELY A DECENT CRUST IN
PLACE WITH THE SLIGHTLY ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS AND REFREEZE TODAY
AND A LITTLE MELTING LOOKS POSSIBLE TOMORROW BEFORE THE CAA
BEGINS IN THE AFTERNOON. BELIEVE THE WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO BREAK THROUGH SOME OF THE CRUST OVER NORTHERN IOWA AND AID IN
THE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE NEXT WEATHER MAKER LOOKS TO MOVE
ACROSS THE STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. ONLY LIGHT SNOW IS
POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE...A LARGE SURFACE HIGH BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...06/18Z
ISSUED AT 1152 AM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH CIGS AND VSYBS EXIST OVER MUCH OF
IA AT 18Z...BUT HAVE YET TO AFFECT KOTM. THE BACK EDGE IS JUST
EAST OF THE MO RIVER AND SHOULD ADVANCE EASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VFR RETURNING TO MOST SITES 21Z-01Z. KOTM SHOULD ONLY BE
AFFECTED BRIEFLY...23Z-01Z. VFR IS THEN ANTICIPATED INTO SUN
MORNING WITH WLY WINDS INCREASING TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
BLIZZARD WATCH FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
FOR AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO
GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL





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