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000
FXUS63 KDMX 251213
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
713 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND TEMPS. MCS
EXPANDED EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVEN BY BOTH KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING. POSITIVE DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
FROM SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS RIDGE...TIED INTO LOBE FROM
SWRN CANADIAN UPPER LOW...CONTINUES FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.
STRONG H85/H7 THETA-E ADVECTION AND H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVES HAS ALSO GREATLY FUELED AND INFLUENCED THIS ELEVATED
CONVECTION.  MAIN CONCERNS APPEAR TO BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MUCAPE AXIS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO IA WITH
SYSTEM AND THREE HOUR CHANGES 500-1500 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR HAS
DECREASED SOMEWHAT...NOW PEAKING BEHIND CURRENT MCS...SO THIS AND
COMBINATION OF FREEZING LEVELS EXCEEDING 14KFT HAS APPEARED TO
DIMINISH SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT...HAIL IN PARTICULAR.  THIS LESS
FAVORABLE SEVERE ENVIRONMENT HAS ELEVATED THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
HOWEVER WITH PWS RISING WELL THROUGH THE 1-2 INCH RANGE AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 4KM.  CELLS SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING SEWD UPWARD
PROPAGATION VECTOR.  WITH MEAN WIND NORMAL TO VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
THIS HAS KEEP THE MAGNITUDE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
RECENT DRY SPELL...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO REBOUND...AND
MATURE CROPS.

LARGE SCALE FORCING LOOKS TO WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON SO SEE NO
REASON TO ARGUE WITH HI RES MODELS ENDING PRECIP BY AFTERNOON AS MCS
EXITS TO THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO TEMPS WITH WARM
SECTOR RAPIDLY SURGING NWD BEHIND MCS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH. CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST MAXES NEED TO BE
RAISED A TAD SO NOW HAVE M80S/LOW 90S NE-SW. RESULTANT HEAT INDICES
ARE STILL IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS ADVISORY HOWEVER SO NO CHANGES
THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MAIN FORCING EXITING TO THE EAST AND WEAK TROUGH EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING
SAID THERE WILL BE ONLY MODEST CHANGES IN AIRMASS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WARM THICKNESS AND H850 TEMPS STILL HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH HALF.  ALOFT...A RATHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AT H500 WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO WESTERN IOWA BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND INDUCE
ANOTHER WEAK SFC WAVE OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SATURDAY.  WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING QUITE HIGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WEAK LIFT AND SFC
CONVERGENCE...SOME SCT THUNDER IS EXPECT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS SOUTH THIRD. HAVE EXPANDED POPS A BIT OVER THE SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THE THERMAL GRADIENT AT H850 INCREASES
ALONG WITH A RENEWED...BUT WEAK INCREASE IN H850 FLOW INTO THE
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BUILDING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTH THIRD DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO SHOW ITSELF.  LATER IN THE EVENING THE JET WILL
INTENSIFY AND WITH THE H500 WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA...TAKE MOST
OF THE CONVECTION OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND
FOR THE PAST THREE DAYS...NO CHANGES TO THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
THE STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. TONIGHTS WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE STRONG WAVE IN ALBERTA
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE H500
GYRE OVER HUDSON BAY... CAUSING THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS PATTERN TO
AMPLIFY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE CANADIAN H500 WAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN
AND WISCONSIN WITH MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS MN/NORTHERN IA
DISSIPATING BY SUNSET AS THE COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES LOOK SLIM OVER MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MARCH SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT AND EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST BY 12Z. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INTENSIFY DURING THE
DAY...AND THIS IS WHEN WE WILL REALLY APPRECIATE THE COOLER
WEATHER. H850 TEMPS BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL HOLD TO NEAR 10C ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST TO
THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A MODEST WARMING ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO HOLD PAT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DURING THE DAY AND
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AT NIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY
MIDWEEK A MODEST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE H500 LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS MAY
FIRE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON...
THOUGH ANY INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LOW. ADDITIONAL WAVE ENERGY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ON BOTH
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/12Z
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION WITH PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
KMCW/KALO/KOTM EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO
MIDDAY WITH VFR ANTICIPATED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO THE NIGHT HOWEVER BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES WHICH MAY LEAD TO IFR/MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS-
CASS-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 251213
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
713 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND TEMPS. MCS
EXPANDED EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVEN BY BOTH KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING. POSITIVE DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
FROM SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS RIDGE...TIED INTO LOBE FROM
SWRN CANADIAN UPPER LOW...CONTINUES FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.
STRONG H85/H7 THETA-E ADVECTION AND H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVES HAS ALSO GREATLY FUELED AND INFLUENCED THIS ELEVATED
CONVECTION.  MAIN CONCERNS APPEAR TO BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MUCAPE AXIS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO IA WITH
SYSTEM AND THREE HOUR CHANGES 500-1500 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR HAS
DECREASED SOMEWHAT...NOW PEAKING BEHIND CURRENT MCS...SO THIS AND
COMBINATION OF FREEZING LEVELS EXCEEDING 14KFT HAS APPEARED TO
DIMINISH SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT...HAIL IN PARTICULAR.  THIS LESS
FAVORABLE SEVERE ENVIRONMENT HAS ELEVATED THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
HOWEVER WITH PWS RISING WELL THROUGH THE 1-2 INCH RANGE AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 4KM.  CELLS SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING SEWD UPWARD
PROPAGATION VECTOR.  WITH MEAN WIND NORMAL TO VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
THIS HAS KEEP THE MAGNITUDE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
RECENT DRY SPELL...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO REBOUND...AND
MATURE CROPS.

LARGE SCALE FORCING LOOKS TO WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON SO SEE NO
REASON TO ARGUE WITH HI RES MODELS ENDING PRECIP BY AFTERNOON AS MCS
EXITS TO THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO TEMPS WITH WARM
SECTOR RAPIDLY SURGING NWD BEHIND MCS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH. CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST MAXES NEED TO BE
RAISED A TAD SO NOW HAVE M80S/LOW 90S NE-SW. RESULTANT HEAT INDICES
ARE STILL IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS ADVISORY HOWEVER SO NO CHANGES
THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MAIN FORCING EXITING TO THE EAST AND WEAK TROUGH EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING
SAID THERE WILL BE ONLY MODEST CHANGES IN AIRMASS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WARM THICKNESS AND H850 TEMPS STILL HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH HALF.  ALOFT...A RATHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AT H500 WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO WESTERN IOWA BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND INDUCE
ANOTHER WEAK SFC WAVE OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SATURDAY.  WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING QUITE HIGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WEAK LIFT AND SFC
CONVERGENCE...SOME SCT THUNDER IS EXPECT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS SOUTH THIRD. HAVE EXPANDED POPS A BIT OVER THE SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THE THERMAL GRADIENT AT H850 INCREASES
ALONG WITH A RENEWED...BUT WEAK INCREASE IN H850 FLOW INTO THE
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BUILDING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTH THIRD DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO SHOW ITSELF.  LATER IN THE EVENING THE JET WILL
INTENSIFY AND WITH THE H500 WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA...TAKE MOST
OF THE CONVECTION OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND
FOR THE PAST THREE DAYS...NO CHANGES TO THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
THE STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. TONIGHTS WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE STRONG WAVE IN ALBERTA
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE H500
GYRE OVER HUDSON BAY... CAUSING THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS PATTERN TO
AMPLIFY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE CANADIAN H500 WAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN
AND WISCONSIN WITH MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS MN/NORTHERN IA
DISSIPATING BY SUNSET AS THE COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES LOOK SLIM OVER MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MARCH SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT AND EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST BY 12Z. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INTENSIFY DURING THE
DAY...AND THIS IS WHEN WE WILL REALLY APPRECIATE THE COOLER
WEATHER. H850 TEMPS BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL HOLD TO NEAR 10C ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST TO
THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A MODEST WARMING ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO HOLD PAT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DURING THE DAY AND
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AT NIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY
MIDWEEK A MODEST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE H500 LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS MAY
FIRE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON...
THOUGH ANY INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LOW. ADDITIONAL WAVE ENERGY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ON BOTH
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/12Z
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CONVECTION WITH PATCHY MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
KMCW/KALO/KOTM EARLY THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO
MIDDAY WITH VFR ANTICIPATED INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH INTO THE NIGHT HOWEVER BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
TIMES WHICH MAY LEAD TO IFR/MVFR VSBYS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS-
CASS-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 250839
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
339 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND TEMPS. MCS
EXPANDED EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVEN BY BOTH KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING. POSITIVE DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
FROM SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS RIDGE...TIED INTO LOBE FROM
SWRN CANADIAN UPPER LOW...CONTINUES FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.
STRONG H85/H7 THETA-E ADVECTION AND H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVES HAS ALSO GREATLY FUELED AND INFLUENCED THIS ELEVATED
CONVECTION.  MAIN CONCERNS APPEAR TO BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MUCAPE AXIS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO IA WITH
SYSTEM AND THREE HOUR CHANGES 500-1500 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR HAS
DECREASED SOMEWHAT...NOW PEAKING BEHIND CURRENT MCS...SO THIS AND
COMBINATION OF FREEZING LEVELS EXCEEDING 14KFT HAS APPEARED TO
DIMINISH SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT...HAIL IN PARTICULAR.  THIS LESS
FAVORABLE SEVERE ENVIRONMENT HAS ELEVATED THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
HOWEVER WITH PWS RISING WELL THROUGH THE 1-2 INCH RANGE AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 4KM.  CELLS SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING SEWD UPWARD
PROPAGATION VECTOR.  WITH MEAN WIND NORMAL TO VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
THIS HAS KEEP THE MAGNITUDE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
RECENT DRY SPELL...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO REBOUND...AND
MATURE CROPS.

LARGE SCALE FORCING LOOKS TO WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON SO SEE NO
REASON TO ARGUE WITH HI RES MODELS ENDING PRECIP BY AFTERNOON AS MCS
EXITS TO THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO TEMPS WITH WARM
SECTOR RAPIDLY SURGING NWD BEHIND MCS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH. CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST MAXES NEED TO BE
RAISED A TAD SO NOW HAVE M80S/LOW 90S NE-SW. RESULTANT HEAT INDICES
ARE STILL IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS ADVISORY HOWEVER SO NO CHANGES
THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MAIN FORCING EXITING TO THE EAST AND WEAK TROUGH EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING
SAID THERE WILL BE ONLY MODEST CHANGES IN AIRMASS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WARM THICKNESS AND H850 TEMPS STILL HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH HALF.  ALOFT...A RATHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AT H500 WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO WESTERN IOWA BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND INDUCE
ANOTHER WEAK SFC WAVE OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SATURDAY.  WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING QUITE HIGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WEAK LIFT AND SFC
CONVERGENCE...SOME SCT THUNDER IS EXPECT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS SOUTH THIRD. HAVE EXPANDED POPS A BIT OVER THE SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THE THERMAL GRADIENT AT H850 INCREASES
ALONG WITH A RENEWED...BUT WEAK INCREASE IN H850 FLOW INTO THE
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BUILDING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTH THIRD DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO SHOW ITSELF.  LATER IN THE EVENING THE JET WILL
INTENSIFY AND WITH THE H500 WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA...TAKE MOST
OF THE CONVECTION OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND
FOR THE PAST THREE DAYS...NO CHANGES TO THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
THE STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. TONIGHTS WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE STRONG WAVE IN ALBERTA
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE H500
GYRE OVER HUDSON BAY... CAUSING THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS PATTERN TO
AMPLIFY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE CANADIAN H500 WAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN
AND WISCONSIN WITH MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS MN/NORTHERN IA
DISSIPATING BY SUNSET AS THE COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES LOOK SLIM OVER MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MARCH SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT AND EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST BY 12Z. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INTENSIFY DURING THE
DAY...AND THIS IS WHEN WE WILL REALLY APPRECIATE THE COOLER
WEATHER. H850 TEMPS BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL HOLD TO NEAR 10C ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST TO
THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A MODEST WARMING ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO HOLD PAT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DURING THE DAY AND
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AT NIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY
MIDWEEK A MODEST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE H500 LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS MAY
FIRE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON...
THOUGH ANY INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LOW. ADDITIONAL WAVE ENERGY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ON BOTH
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/00Z
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PATCH OF SHRA CURRENTLY AFFECTING AREA MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF LOCAL
MVFR CIG/VSBY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING...BUT
PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN TERMINAL IS LOW. THEREAFTER EXPECT A BREAK
IN PRECIP OF SEVERAL HRS WITH A RETURN TO SSE WINDS AND HIGH
CIGS...BUT OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z ANTICIPATE MORE TSRA DEVELOPMENT
THOUGH COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE SO HAVE HANDLED WITH JUST VCTS FOR
NOW. BY 06Z ISSUANCE CONVECTIVE TRENDS MAY BE REVEALING THEMSELVES
ALLOWING FOR MORE DETAIL IN THE TAFS. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY EXPECT
STORMS WILL HAVE ENDED WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS-
CASS-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 250839
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
339 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN TODAY WILL BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND TEMPS. MCS
EXPANDED EARLY THIS MORNING DRIVEN BY BOTH KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING. POSITIVE DIFFERENTIAL VORTICITY ADVECTION
FROM SHORT WAVES TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS RIDGE...TIED INTO LOBE FROM
SWRN CANADIAN UPPER LOW...CONTINUES FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO IA.
STRONG H85/H7 THETA-E ADVECTION AND H85 MOISTURE TRANSPORT AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVES HAS ALSO GREATLY FUELED AND INFLUENCED THIS ELEVATED
CONVECTION.  MAIN CONCERNS APPEAR TO BE FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MUCAPE AXIS CONTINUES TO ADVANCE INTO IA WITH
SYSTEM AND THREE HOUR CHANGES 500-1500 J/KG.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR HAS
DECREASED SOMEWHAT...NOW PEAKING BEHIND CURRENT MCS...SO THIS AND
COMBINATION OF FREEZING LEVELS EXCEEDING 14KFT HAS APPEARED TO
DIMINISH SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT...HAIL IN PARTICULAR.  THIS LESS
FAVORABLE SEVERE ENVIRONMENT HAS ELEVATED THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT
HOWEVER WITH PWS RISING WELL THROUGH THE 1-2 INCH RANGE AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 4KM.  CELLS SEEM TO BE FOLLOWING SEWD UPWARD
PROPAGATION VECTOR.  WITH MEAN WIND NORMAL TO VEERING LOW LEVEL JET
THIS HAS KEEP THE MAGNITUDE HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP THINGS SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE. DO NOT EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF FLASH FLOODING WITH
RECENT DRY SPELL...FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE CONTINUING TO REBOUND...AND
MATURE CROPS.

LARGE SCALE FORCING LOOKS TO WANE INTO THE AFTERNOON SO SEE NO
REASON TO ARGUE WITH HI RES MODELS ENDING PRECIP BY AFTERNOON AS MCS
EXITS TO THE EAST. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO TEMPS WITH WARM
SECTOR RAPIDLY SURGING NWD BEHIND MCS AHEAD OF APPROACHING SURFACE
TROUGH. CONSENSUS OF RAW MODEL TEMPS WOULD SUGGEST MAXES NEED TO BE
RAISED A TAD SO NOW HAVE M80S/LOW 90S NE-SW. RESULTANT HEAT INDICES
ARE STILL IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS ADVISORY HOWEVER SO NO CHANGES
THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MAIN FORCING EXITING TO THE EAST AND WEAK TROUGH EXPECTED TO PASS
SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING
SAID THERE WILL BE ONLY MODEST CHANGES IN AIRMASS THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH WARM THICKNESS AND H850 TEMPS STILL HOLDING
ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTH HALF.  ALOFT...A RATHER WEAK
UPPER LEVEL WAVE AT H500 WILL TRANSLATE EAST INTO WESTERN IOWA BY
MIDDAY SATURDAY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND INDUCE
ANOTHER WEAK SFC WAVE OVER SOUTHERN/SOUTHEAST IOWA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SATURDAY.  WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING QUITE HIGH
ACROSS THE SOUTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WEAK LIFT AND SFC
CONVERGENCE...SOME SCT THUNDER IS EXPECT FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS SOUTH THIRD. HAVE EXPANDED POPS A BIT OVER THE SOUTH.
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT THE THERMAL GRADIENT AT H850 INCREASES
ALONG WITH A RENEWED...BUT WEAK INCREASE IN H850 FLOW INTO THE
BOUNDARY. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A BUILDING OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTH THIRD DURING THE MID TO LATE EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO SHOW ITSELF.  LATER IN THE EVENING THE JET WILL
INTENSIFY AND WITH THE H500 WAVE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA...TAKE MOST
OF THE CONVECTION OUT OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND
FOR THE PAST THREE DAYS...NO CHANGES TO THE TIMING AND EVOLUTION OF
THE STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. TONIGHTS WATER VAPOR IMAGE SHOWS THE STRONG WAVE IN ALBERTA
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EAST AND EVENTUALLY PHASE WITH THE H500
GYRE OVER HUDSON BAY... CAUSING THE ENTIRE EASTERN CONUS PATTERN TO
AMPLIFY NEXT WEEK. THE BEST FORCING WITH THE CANADIAN H500 WAVE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY SUNDAY WILL DIG SOUTHEAST ACROSS MN
AND WISCONSIN WITH MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS ACROSS MN/NORTHERN IA
DISSIPATING BY SUNSET AS THE COLDER AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FIRST COLD FRONT.
THUS...RAIN CHANCES LOOK SLIM OVER MOST OF THE REGION SUNDAY WITH
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST. A SECOND
BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MARCH SOUTH DURING THE NIGHT AND EXIT THE
SOUTHEAST BY 12Z. NORTHEAST FLOW WILL INTENSIFY DURING THE
DAY...AND THIS IS WHEN WE WILL REALLY APPRECIATE THE COOLER
WEATHER. H850 TEMPS BY LATE AFTERNOON WILL HOLD TO NEAR 10C ACROSS
THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S NORTHEAST TO
THE MID 70S IN THE SOUTH. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO THE AREA
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS AS WELL WITH THE
COLDER AIR ALOFT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH ONLY A MODEST WARMING ALOFT. THUS...EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO HOLD PAT IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80 DURING THE DAY AND
IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AT NIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY OCCUR...
ESPECIALLY IN LOW LYING AREAS AT TIMES THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY
MIDWEEK A MODEST SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTH IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE H500 LOW OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS MAY
FIRE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WED AFTERNOON...
THOUGH ANY INSTABILITY REMAINS QUITE LOW. ADDITIONAL WAVE ENERGY
TRACKING SOUTHEAST MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
THOUGH CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK ON BOTH
TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW. COOL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/00Z
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PATCH OF SHRA CURRENTLY AFFECTING AREA MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF LOCAL
MVFR CIG/VSBY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING...BUT
PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN TERMINAL IS LOW. THEREAFTER EXPECT A BREAK
IN PRECIP OF SEVERAL HRS WITH A RETURN TO SSE WINDS AND HIGH
CIGS...BUT OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z ANTICIPATE MORE TSRA DEVELOPMENT
THOUGH COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE SO HAVE HANDLED WITH JUST VCTS FOR
NOW. BY 06Z ISSUANCE CONVECTIVE TRENDS MAY BE REVEALING THEMSELVES
ALLOWING FOR MORE DETAIL IN THE TAFS. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY EXPECT
STORMS WILL HAVE ENDED WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAMS-
CASS-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 242335
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SD WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER SRN WI BY
SATURDAY EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW AND MOVE THROUGH
IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

LARGE AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS HAVE A POOR HANDLING ON THE
CURRENT SITUATION...INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE.
WHILE SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS...GIVEN ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND STRENGTH OF THETA-E
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WITH VERY LIMITED SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE ANY
THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL PRIMARILY BE LARGE HAIL.

AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION WITH SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...LLJ IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...IMPINGING ON NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
BEGINNING NEAR 06Z. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS BEYOND 06Z. LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH SOMEWHAT NEAR 12Z...AND HAVE BROUGHT HIGHER
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER...AND HAVE HUNG ON TO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z. PWAT VALUES OVERNIGHT REMAIN HIGH...OVER 1
INCH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS...HOWEVER DYNAMICS DECREASE OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE SEVERE
THREAT WILL ALSO DIMINISH.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRONG CAPPING MOVING IN
RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY. H7 TEMPS WILL WARM TO +16 WITH CIN
REMAINING GREATER THAN -50 EVEN DURING MAX HEADING. DO NOT LOOK
FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE CWA AFTER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT..AND ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE WAVE
PASSAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT AND QUICK RETURN TO DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE CWA WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE
TO RECOVER ENOUGH TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE
SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY TO REACH 105 OR BETTER FOR A COUPLE HOURS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOIST A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS FROM
17Z-00Z. CLOUDS AND COOLING WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITERIA
FRO SATURDAY.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK. A DRY WEAK IS ON TAP UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. ONCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE EAST...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...25/00Z
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PATCH OF SHRA CURRENTLY AFFECTING AREA MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF LOCAL
MVFR CIG/VSBY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING...BUT
PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN TERMINAL IS LOW. THEREAFTER EXPECT A BREAK
IN PRECIP OF SEVERAL HRS WITH A RETURN TO SSE WINDS AND HIGH
CIGS...BUT OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z ANTICIPATE MORE TSRA DEVELOPMENT
THOUGH COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE SO HAVE HANDLED WITH JUST VCTS FOR
NOW. BY 06Z ISSUANCE CONVECTIVE TRENDS MAY BE REVEALING THEMSELVES
ALLOWING FOR MORE DETAIL IN THE TAFS. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY EXPECT
STORMS WILL HAVE ENDED WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ADAMS-CASS-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUL 14
LONG TERM...MS JUL 14
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 242335
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SD WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER SRN WI BY
SATURDAY EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW AND MOVE THROUGH
IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

LARGE AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS HAVE A POOR HANDLING ON THE
CURRENT SITUATION...INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE.
WHILE SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS...GIVEN ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND STRENGTH OF THETA-E
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WITH VERY LIMITED SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE ANY
THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL PRIMARILY BE LARGE HAIL.

AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION WITH SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...LLJ IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...IMPINGING ON NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
BEGINNING NEAR 06Z. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS BEYOND 06Z. LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH SOMEWHAT NEAR 12Z...AND HAVE BROUGHT HIGHER
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER...AND HAVE HUNG ON TO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z. PWAT VALUES OVERNIGHT REMAIN HIGH...OVER 1
INCH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS...HOWEVER DYNAMICS DECREASE OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE SEVERE
THREAT WILL ALSO DIMINISH.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRONG CAPPING MOVING IN
RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY. H7 TEMPS WILL WARM TO +16 WITH CIN
REMAINING GREATER THAN -50 EVEN DURING MAX HEADING. DO NOT LOOK
FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE CWA AFTER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT..AND ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE WAVE
PASSAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT AND QUICK RETURN TO DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE CWA WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE
TO RECOVER ENOUGH TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE
SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY TO REACH 105 OR BETTER FOR A COUPLE HOURS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOIST A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS FROM
17Z-00Z. CLOUDS AND COOLING WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITERIA
FRO SATURDAY.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK. A DRY WEAK IS ON TAP UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. ONCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE EAST...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...25/00Z
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

PATCH OF SHRA CURRENTLY AFFECTING AREA MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF LOCAL
MVFR CIG/VSBY IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS BEFORE DISSIPATING...BUT
PROBABILITY AT A GIVEN TERMINAL IS LOW. THEREAFTER EXPECT A BREAK
IN PRECIP OF SEVERAL HRS WITH A RETURN TO SSE WINDS AND HIGH
CIGS...BUT OVERNIGHT AFTER 06Z ANTICIPATE MORE TSRA DEVELOPMENT
THOUGH COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE SO HAVE HANDLED WITH JUST VCTS FOR
NOW. BY 06Z ISSUANCE CONVECTIVE TRENDS MAY BE REVEALING THEMSELVES
ALLOWING FOR MORE DETAIL IN THE TAFS. BY MIDDAY FRIDAY EXPECT
STORMS WILL HAVE ENDED WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ADAMS-CASS-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUL 14
LONG TERM...MS JUL 14
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 242027
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
327 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SD WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER SRN WI BY
SATURDAY EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW AND MOVE THROUGH
IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

LARGE AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS HAVE A POOR HANDLING ON THE
CURRENT SITUATION...INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE.
WHILE SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS...GIVEN ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND STRENGTH OF THETA-E
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WITH VERY LIMITED SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE ANY
THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL PRIMARILY BE LARGE HAIL.

AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION WITH SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...LLJ IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...IMPINGING ON NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
BEGINNING NEAR 06Z. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS BEYOND 06Z. LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH SOMEWHAT NEAR 12Z...AND HAVE BROUGHT HIGHER
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER...AND HAVE HUNG ON TO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z. PWAT VALUES OVERNIGHT REMAIN HIGH...OVER 1
INCH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS...HOWEVER DYNAMICS DECREASE OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE SEVERE
THREAT WILL ALSO DIMINISH.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRONG CAPPING MOVING IN
RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY. H7 TEMPS WILL WARM TO +16 WITH CIN
REMAINING GREATER THAN -50 EVEN DURING MAX HEADING. DO NOT LOOK
FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE CWA AFTER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT..AND ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE WAVE
PASSAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT AND QUICK RETURN TO DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE CWA WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE
TO RECOVER ENOUGH TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE
SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY TO REACH 105 OR BETTER FOR A COUPLE HOURS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOIST A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS FROM
17Z-00Z. CLOUDS AND COOLING WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITERIA
FRO SATURDAY.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK. A DRY WEAK IS ON TAP UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. ONCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE EAST...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SITES NEAR 00Z...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN SITES
KFOD/KMCW/KALO. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VC MENTION ATTM DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSRA OR
SHRA...HOWEVER...KMCW/KALO MAY SEE TSRA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY
AFTER 12Z. OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIODS OF
MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
TSRA.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ADAMS-CASS-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUL 14
SHORT TERM FORECASTER...AWB
LONG TERM...MS JUL 14
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 242027
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
327 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN SD WILL MOVE EAST AND BE OVER SRN WI BY
SATURDAY EVENING. COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL THE LOW AND MOVE THROUGH
IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

LARGE AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED FOR AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA
AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. MODELS HAVE A POOR HANDLING ON THE
CURRENT SITUATION...INDICATING THAT PRECIPITATION WILL DECREASE.
WHILE SPC ANALYSIS SHOWS A RELATIVELY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STORMS...GIVEN ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND STRENGTH OF THETA-E
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE THIS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ELEVATED...AND WILL
CONTINUE TO BE WITH VERY LIMITED SURFACE BASED CAPE. THEREFORE ANY
THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL PRIMARILY BE LARGE HAIL.

AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES...PRECIPITATION WITH SHIFT TO THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST. IN ADDITION...LLJ IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE...IMPINGING ON NORTH AND NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF CWA
BEGINNING NEAR 06Z. HAVE THEREFORE INCREASED POPS BEYOND 06Z. LLJ IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH SOMEWHAT NEAR 12Z...AND HAVE BROUGHT HIGHER
POPS FURTHER SOUTH. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER...AND HAVE HUNG ON TO
PRECIPITATION THROUGH 12Z. PWAT VALUES OVERNIGHT REMAIN HIGH...OVER 1
INCH...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
STORMS...HOWEVER DYNAMICS DECREASE OVERNIGHT...AND ANTICIPATE SEVERE
THREAT WILL ALSO DIMINISH.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WARM FRONT WILL LIFT ACROSS THE CWA WITH STRONG CAPPING MOVING IN
RAPIDLY DURING THE DAY. H7 TEMPS WILL WARM TO +16 WITH CIN
REMAINING GREATER THAN -50 EVEN DURING MAX HEADING. DO NOT LOOK
FOR ANY PRECIP IN THE CWA AFTER EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT..AND ONLY LOW POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH THE WAVE
PASSAGE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

A STRONG PUSH OF WARM AIR ALOFT AND QUICK RETURN TO DEW POINTS IN
THE 70S AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. MUCH OF THE CWA WILL NOT HAVE A CHANCE
TO RECOVER ENOUGH TO REACH HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA...BUT THE
SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY TO REACH 105 OR BETTER FOR A COUPLE HOURS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WILL HOIST A HEAT ADVISORY FOR THOSE AREAS FROM
17Z-00Z. CLOUDS AND COOLING WILL KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW CRITERIA
FRO SATURDAY.

MUCH OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE DOMINATED BY COOL
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
WEEK. A DRY WEAK IS ON TAP UNTIL AT LEAST THURSDAY. ONCE THE HIGH
PRESSURE RETREATS TO THE EAST...RETURN FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SITES NEAR 00Z...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN SITES
KFOD/KMCW/KALO. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VC MENTION ATTM DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSRA OR
SHRA...HOWEVER...KMCW/KALO MAY SEE TSRA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY
AFTER 12Z. OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIODS OF
MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
TSRA.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR ADAMS-CASS-
RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS JUL 14
SHORT TERM FORECASTER...AWB
LONG TERM...MS JUL 14
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 241732
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1232 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FURTHER
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA TODAY. SOME WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AND FORCING BETWEEN 700-500MB ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE
500MB SHORTWAVE RIDING THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THIS SYSTEM MAY SPAWN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH PRECIP AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS FAIRLY
STUBBORN IN MOVING EAST AND THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
IN PLACE OVER IOWA. HENCE...CUT BACK ON POPS THROUGH 18Z AND
CONFINED THEM TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL.

WITH THE DRIER FORECAST...LEANED TOWARD WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY DUE TO THE LESS CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AS WELL AS THE ADDITION
OF WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE...ACROSS THE WEST COAST
BEGINNING TO ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...TO IMPACT OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SIMILAR SOLUTIONS ONCE AGAIN
THIS MODEL PACKAGE FOR TONIGHTS EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVENT THAT
SHOULD TAKE PLACE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 169...WITH
THE BEST LIFT AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35. TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIMILAR...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
ON TIMING...GFS/GEM STILL SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN NAM/12Z EURO
WHICH AGAIN FOCUS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS/POTENTIAL MCS OVER THE
EAST/NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. NEWEST 00Z EURO IS
ALSO SLIGHTLY SLOWER...SO WILL DELAY THE ONSET NORTHWEST AND
EXTEND THE EXIT EAST BY ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS. OVERALL IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE EVENT WILL STILL PEAK BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
EAST/NORTHEAST AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ARE
FORCED INTO DEVELOPING H850/H700 FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A THERMAL CAP AT H700 LATE TONIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES BY 12Z FRIDAY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA WITH SUFFICIENT WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS AGAIN TONIGHT
INDICATE THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PEAK BETWEEN 09Z AND JUST
AROUND SUNRISE OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS. STILL EXPECT THAT ANY
SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME
WIND...THOUGH THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION THAT MUST BE
OVERCOME FOR ANY DOWNWARD WIND MOMENTUM TO REACH THE SFC. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE HALF TO 1 INCH RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE...ALL ENDING BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A SOGGY START TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE
NORTHEAST/EAST. ONCE THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST WITH THE WAVE AND
EXPECTED SFC LOW TRACKING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...A H700 WARM LAYER WILL BUILD ACROSS IOWA AND BRING
RATHER WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...HIGHS WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. SLIGHT COOLER READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL HOLD ON
NORTHEAST WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION. DESPITE MUCAPE
IN THE 4500 TO 5500 J/KG RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG CAP ALOFT
LIKELY TO MUTE ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. ALONG WITH THE
HEAT...SOUTHERN SECTIONS LIKELY TO BE BACK TO 100F TO 105F HEAT
INDICES BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL. WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HUMID LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY. AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SOME CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG IT
OVER THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. WE ARE OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK...BUT WITH ONLY WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE AND CAP ALOFT...STORMS WILL BE RATHER CONDITIONAL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL RETURN WILL BY SUNDAY. LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WITH
REGARDS TO THE EXTENDED. H500 LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PHASE WITH
APPROACHING H500 NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO AMPLIFY AND EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A PROLONGED NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN LASTING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LITTLE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SITES NEAR 00Z...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN SITES
KFOD/KMCW/KALO. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VC MENTION ATTM DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSRA OR
SHRA...HOWEVER...KMCW/KALO MAY SEE TSRA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY
AFTER 12Z. OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIODS OF
MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
TSRA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 241732
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1232 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FURTHER
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA TODAY. SOME WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AND FORCING BETWEEN 700-500MB ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE
500MB SHORTWAVE RIDING THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THIS SYSTEM MAY SPAWN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH PRECIP AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS FAIRLY
STUBBORN IN MOVING EAST AND THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
IN PLACE OVER IOWA. HENCE...CUT BACK ON POPS THROUGH 18Z AND
CONFINED THEM TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL.

WITH THE DRIER FORECAST...LEANED TOWARD WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY DUE TO THE LESS CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AS WELL AS THE ADDITION
OF WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE...ACROSS THE WEST COAST
BEGINNING TO ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...TO IMPACT OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SIMILAR SOLUTIONS ONCE AGAIN
THIS MODEL PACKAGE FOR TONIGHTS EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVENT THAT
SHOULD TAKE PLACE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 169...WITH
THE BEST LIFT AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35. TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIMILAR...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
ON TIMING...GFS/GEM STILL SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN NAM/12Z EURO
WHICH AGAIN FOCUS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS/POTENTIAL MCS OVER THE
EAST/NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. NEWEST 00Z EURO IS
ALSO SLIGHTLY SLOWER...SO WILL DELAY THE ONSET NORTHWEST AND
EXTEND THE EXIT EAST BY ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS. OVERALL IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE EVENT WILL STILL PEAK BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
EAST/NORTHEAST AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ARE
FORCED INTO DEVELOPING H850/H700 FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A THERMAL CAP AT H700 LATE TONIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES BY 12Z FRIDAY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA WITH SUFFICIENT WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS AGAIN TONIGHT
INDICATE THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PEAK BETWEEN 09Z AND JUST
AROUND SUNRISE OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS. STILL EXPECT THAT ANY
SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME
WIND...THOUGH THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION THAT MUST BE
OVERCOME FOR ANY DOWNWARD WIND MOMENTUM TO REACH THE SFC. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE HALF TO 1 INCH RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE...ALL ENDING BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A SOGGY START TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE
NORTHEAST/EAST. ONCE THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST WITH THE WAVE AND
EXPECTED SFC LOW TRACKING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...A H700 WARM LAYER WILL BUILD ACROSS IOWA AND BRING
RATHER WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...HIGHS WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. SLIGHT COOLER READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL HOLD ON
NORTHEAST WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION. DESPITE MUCAPE
IN THE 4500 TO 5500 J/KG RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG CAP ALOFT
LIKELY TO MUTE ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. ALONG WITH THE
HEAT...SOUTHERN SECTIONS LIKELY TO BE BACK TO 100F TO 105F HEAT
INDICES BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL. WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HUMID LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY. AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SOME CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG IT
OVER THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. WE ARE OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK...BUT WITH ONLY WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE AND CAP ALOFT...STORMS WILL BE RATHER CONDITIONAL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL RETURN WILL BY SUNDAY. LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WITH
REGARDS TO THE EXTENDED. H500 LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PHASE WITH
APPROACHING H500 NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO AMPLIFY AND EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A PROLONGED NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN LASTING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LITTLE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT SITES NEAR 00Z...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ESPECIALLY AT NORTHERN SITES
KFOD/KMCW/KALO. HAVE INCLUDED ONLY VC MENTION ATTM DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSRA OR
SHRA...HOWEVER...KMCW/KALO MAY SEE TSRA...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BECOMING STRONG AND GUSTY
AFTER 12Z. OVERALL...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIODS OF
MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
TSRA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 241141
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
641 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FURTHER
EAST TO SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKE ITS
WAY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA TODAY. SOME WEAK THETA-E
ADVECTION AND FORCING BETWEEN 700-500MB ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE
500MB SHORTWAVE RIDING THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
LOW. THIS SYSTEM MAY SPAWN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...HAVE LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH PRECIP AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS FAIRLY
STUBBORN IN MOVING EAST AND THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR
IN PLACE OVER IOWA. HENCE...CUT BACK ON POPS THROUGH 18Z AND
CONFINED THEM TO THE NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL.

WITH THE DRIER FORECAST...LEANED TOWARD WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY DUE TO THE LESS CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AS WELL AS THE ADDITION
OF WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE...ACROSS THE WEST COAST
BEGINNING TO ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...TO IMPACT OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SIMILAR SOLUTIONS ONCE AGAIN
THIS MODEL PACKAGE FOR TONIGHTS EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVENT THAT
SHOULD TAKE PLACE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 169...WITH
THE BEST LIFT AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35. TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIMILAR...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
ON TIMING...GFS/GEM STILL SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN NAM/12Z EURO
WHICH AGAIN FOCUS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS/POTENTIAL MCS OVER THE
EAST/NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. NEWEST 00Z EURO IS
ALSO SLIGHTLY SLOWER...SO WILL DELAY THE ONSET NORTHWEST AND
EXTEND THE EXIT EAST BY ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS. OVERALL IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE EVENT WILL STILL PEAK BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
EAST/NORTHEAST AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ARE
FORCED INTO DEVELOPING H850/H700 FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A THERMAL CAP AT H700 LATE TONIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES BY 12Z FRIDAY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA WITH SUFFICIENT WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS AGAIN TONIGHT
INDICATE THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PEAK BETWEEN 09Z AND JUST
AROUND SUNRISE OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS. STILL EXPECT THAT ANY
SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME
WIND...THOUGH THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION THAT MUST BE
OVERCOME FOR ANY DOWNWARD WIND MOMENTUM TO REACH THE SFC. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE HALF TO 1 INCH RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE...ALL ENDING BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A SOGGY START TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE
NORTHEAST/EAST. ONCE THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST WITH THE WAVE AND
EXPECTED SFC LOW TRACKING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...A H700 WARM LAYER WILL BUILD ACROSS IOWA AND BRING
RATHER WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...HIGHS WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. SLIGHT COOLER READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL HOLD ON
NORTHEAST WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION. DESPITE MUCAPE
IN THE 4500 TO 5500 J/KG RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG CAP ALOFT
LIKELY TO MUTE ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. ALONG WITH THE
HEAT...SOUTHERN SECTIONS LIKELY TO BE BACK TO 100F TO 105F HEAT
INDICES BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL. WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HUMID LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY. AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SOME CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG IT
OVER THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. WE ARE OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK...BUT WITH ONLY WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE AND CAP ALOFT...STORMS WILL BE RATHER CONDITIONAL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL RETURN WILL BY SUNDAY. LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WITH
REGARDS TO THE EXTENDED. H500 LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PHASE WITH
APPROACHING H500 NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO AMPLIFY AND EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A PROLONGED NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN LASTING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LITTLE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. ALTHOUGH MVFR AND
POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS MAY BRIEFLY OCCUR AT FOD/MCW AND EVEN ALO
LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH THE RAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ONLY
HAVE VCTS MENTIONED ATTM AS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE DURATION IF
ANY IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DO HAPPEN TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SOUTHERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON WITH MIXING AND SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTING EASTWARD.  PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 240826
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
326 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FURTHER EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA TODAY. SOME WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION
AND FORCING BETWEEN 700-500MB ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE 500MB
SHORTWAVE RIDING THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS
SYSTEM MAY SPAWN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH MUCH PRECIP AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS FAIRLY STUBBORN IN
MOVING EAST AND THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER
IOWA. HENCE...CUT BACK ON POPS THROUGH 18Z AND CONFINED THEM TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL.

WITH THE DRIER FORECAST...LEANED TOWARD WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY DUE TO THE LESS CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AS WELL AS THE ADDITION OF
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE...ACROSS THE WEST COAST
BEGINNING TO ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...TO IMPACT OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SIMILAR SOLUTIONS ONCE AGAIN
THIS MODEL PACKAGE FOR TONIGHTS EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVENT THAT
SHOULD TAKE PLACE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 169...WITH
THE BEST LIFT AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35. TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIMILAR...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
ON TIMING...GFS/GEM STILL SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN NAM/12Z EURO WHICH
AGAIN FOCUS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS/POTENTIAL MCS OVER THE
EAST/NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. NEWEST 00Z EURO IS
ALSO SLIGHTLY SLOWER...SO WILL DELAY THE ONSET NORTHWEST AND
EXTEND THE EXIT EAST BY ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS. OVERALL IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE EVENT WILL STILL PEAK BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
EAST/NORTHEAST AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ARE
FORCED INTO DEVELOPING H850/H700 FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A THERMAL CAP AT H700 LATE TONIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES BY 12Z FRIDAY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA WITH SUFFICIENT WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS AGAIN TONIGHT
INDICATE THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PEAK BETWEEN 09Z AND JUST
AROUND SUNRISE OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS. STILL EXPECT THAT ANY
SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME
WIND...THOUGH THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION THAT MUST BE
OVERCOME FOR ANY DOWNWARD WIND MOMENTUM TO REACH THE SFC. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE HALF TO 1 INCH RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE...ALL ENDING BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A SOGGY START TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE
NORTHEAST/EAST. ONCE THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST WITH THE WAVE AND
EXPECTED SFC LOW TRACKING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...A H700 WARM LAYER WILL BUILD ACROSS IOWA AND BRING
RATHER WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...HIGHS WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. SLIGHT COOLER READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL HOLD ON
NORTHEAST WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION. DESPITE MUCAPE
IN THE 4500 TO 5500 J/KG RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG CAP ALOFT
LIKELY TO MUTE ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. ALONG WITH THE
HEAT...SOUTHERN SECTIONS LIKELY TO BE BACK TO 100F TO 105F HEAT
INDICES BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL. WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HUMID LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY. AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SOME CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG IT
OVER THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. WE ARE OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK...BUT WITH ONLY WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE AND CAP ALOFT...STORMS WILL BE RATHER CONDITIONAL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL RETURN WILL BY SUNDAY. LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WITH
REGARDS TO THE EXTENDED. H500 LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PHASE WITH
APPROACHING H500 NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO AMPLIFY AND EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A PROLONGED NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN LASTING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LITTLE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...24/00Z
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
WILL TURN FROM NNE TO SSE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING THEN INCREASE A
BIT DURING THE DAY. A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT BR ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD
SUNRISE BUT PROBABILITY AND IMPACT TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME. WILL REASSESS FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE. A FEW SHRA/TSRA
ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND FOD/MCW THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN
PROBABILITY TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION AT THIS RANGE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 240826
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
326 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

TODAY...SURFACE HIGH OVER THE REGION WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FURTHER EAST
TO SOUTHEAST AND ALLOW FOR AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NEBRASKA TODAY. SOME WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION
AND FORCING BETWEEN 700-500MB ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTLE 500MB
SHORTWAVE RIDING THE NORTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THIS
SYSTEM MAY SPAWN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH MUCH PRECIP AS THE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS FAIRLY STUBBORN IN
MOVING EAST AND THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE OVER
IOWA. HENCE...CUT BACK ON POPS THROUGH 18Z AND CONFINED THEM TO THE
NORTHWEST TO NORTH CENTRAL.

WITH THE DRIER FORECAST...LEANED TOWARD WARMER HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY DUE TO THE LESS CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AS WELL AS THE ADDITION OF
WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 AM CDT THU JUL 24 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE WAVE...ACROSS THE WEST COAST
BEGINNING TO ROUND THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...TO IMPACT OUR AREA
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SIMILAR SOLUTIONS ONCE AGAIN
THIS MODEL PACKAGE FOR TONIGHTS EXPECTED CONVECTIVE EVENT THAT
SHOULD TAKE PLACE GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 169...WITH
THE BEST LIFT AND CONVERGENCE INTO THE UPPER LEVEL BOUNDARY EAST
OF INTERSTATE 35. TRENDS HAVE BEEN SIMILAR...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
ON TIMING...GFS/GEM STILL SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN NAM/12Z EURO WHICH
AGAIN FOCUS MOST OF THE THUNDERSTORMS/POTENTIAL MCS OVER THE
EAST/NORTHEAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. NEWEST 00Z EURO IS
ALSO SLIGHTLY SLOWER...SO WILL DELAY THE ONSET NORTHWEST AND
EXTEND THE EXIT EAST BY ABOUT 3 TO 6 HOURS. OVERALL IT WOULD
APPEAR THAT THE EVENT WILL STILL PEAK BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z
EAST/NORTHEAST AS STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND MOISTURE ARE
FORCED INTO DEVELOPING H850/H700 FRONTAL ZONE ALONG THE LEADING
EDGE OF A THERMAL CAP AT H700 LATE TONIGHT. GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEARING 1.5 TO 2.0 INCHES BY 12Z FRIDAY
FROM NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA WITH SUFFICIENT WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL. SOUNDINGS AGAIN TONIGHT
INDICATE THAT ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PEAK BETWEEN 09Z AND JUST
AROUND SUNRISE OVER NORTHEAST SECTIONS. STILL EXPECT THAT ANY
SEVERE THREATS SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HAIL AND PERHAPS SOME
WIND...THOUGH THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT INVERSION THAT MUST BE
OVERCOME FOR ANY DOWNWARD WIND MOMENTUM TO REACH THE SFC. OVERALL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE HALF TO 1 INCH RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER TOTALS POSSIBLE...ALL ENDING BY MIDDAY FRIDAY.
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A SOGGY START TO FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE
NORTHEAST/EAST. ONCE THE CONVECTION MOVES EAST WITH THE WAVE AND
EXPECTED SFC LOW TRACKING INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...A H700 WARM LAYER WILL BUILD ACROSS IOWA AND BRING
RATHER WARM/HOT TEMPERATURES BACK INTO THE REGION FOR FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE...HIGHS WILL QUICKLY BUILD BACK
INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S SOUTH WITH UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. SLIGHT COOLER READINGS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL HOLD ON
NORTHEAST WITH LEFTOVER CLOUDS EXITING THE REGION. DESPITE MUCAPE
IN THE 4500 TO 5500 J/KG RANGE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...STRONG CAP ALOFT
LIKELY TO MUTE ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION. ALONG WITH THE
HEAT...SOUTHERN SECTIONS LIKELY TO BE BACK TO 100F TO 105F HEAT
INDICES BY LATE AFTERNOON AS WELL. WE WILL STAY IN THE WARM SECTOR
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH HUMID LOWS IN THE 70S AND HIGHS IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S SATURDAY. AS THE FRONT SAGS SOUTH AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...SOME CONVECTION MAY FIRE ALONG IT
OVER THE SOUTH THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. WE ARE OUTLOOKED FOR SLIGHT RISK...BUT WITH ONLY WEAK SFC
CONVERGENCE AND CAP ALOFT...STORMS WILL BE RATHER CONDITIONAL
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE COOLER AND LESS HUMID WEATHER
WILL RETURN WILL BY SUNDAY. LITTLE CHANGE FROM YESTERDAY WITH
REGARDS TO THE EXTENDED. H500 LOW OVER HUDSON BAY WILL PHASE WITH
APPROACHING H500 NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO AMPLIFY AND EXPAND SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS. THIS WILL KEEP OUR AREA IN A PROLONGED NORTHWEST FLOW
PATTERN LASTING THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH HIGHS IN THE
70S AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S AND LITTLE ORGANIZED
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...24/00Z
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
WILL TURN FROM NNE TO SSE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING THEN INCREASE A
BIT DURING THE DAY. A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT BR ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD
SUNRISE BUT PROBABILITY AND IMPACT TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME. WILL REASSESS FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE. A FEW SHRA/TSRA
ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND FOD/MCW THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN
PROBABILITY TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION AT THIS RANGE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 232326
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
626 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS MOSTLY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. AS HIGH
PUSHES EAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WITH INCREASE WAA ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE WARMED LOWS SLIGHTLY
GIVEN AMOUNT OF WARMING IN THE AFTERNOON AND WAA AND INCREASING
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REACH
WESTERN IOWA BY EARLY MORNING...THOUGH BEST FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE
INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS...HAVE
THEREFORE OPTED FOR A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY
BE TOO DRY IN THE WEST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH TO PROPAGATE EAST OF IOWA BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
CWA TO RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT HIGH SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO HOLD MORE NOTABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF UNTIL FRI. 700 MB
TEMPS FCST TO BE NEAR +11C WHICH WOULD CAP OFF MOST
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ADDITIONAL PROBLEM THURSDAY
IN THE DMX CWA WILL BE A NOTABLE LACK OF MOISTURE. SFC TROUGH TO
PASS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 40 TO
45 KTS AT 850 MB WILL SUPPORT DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO WESTERN IOWA BY 06Z AND INTERSTATE 35 BY 12Z...BRINGING PWAT
VALUES UP TO +1 TO +2 STD DEV. TIGHT GRADIENT OF THETA-E ADVECTION
TO MOVE ACROSS CWA FROM WEST TO EAST. CAPE VALUES FRI MORNING NOT
SIGNIFICANT SO NO SVR WEATHER THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTH...SO EXPECT DECENT PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY. SHEAR PROFILE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN STORMS AS THEY
PROPAGATE EASTWARD...PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. FORECAST
ISSUE WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ORIENTED N-S TO MOVE ACROSS CWA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...H850
TEMPS PUSHING +25C AND H750 MB TEMPS PUSHING +15C WILL CREATE
FORMIDABLE CAP. BEST FORCING TO BE EAST OF CWA WITH MORNING
SYSTEM. WITH NO APPARENT TRIGGERS OR FORCING MECHANISMS TO HELP
BREAK CAP...SO WILL CONFINE FRIDAY PM POPS TO EASTERN PARTS OF
CWA. REGARDLESS OF POPS...AM CONFIDENT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 95 TO 105 FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CWA.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL THEME OF
AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US AND
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTER OVER IOWA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES IN FORECAST MAY NOT CAPTURE THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES AND WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. THERE WILL BE A FEW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BE EAST OF IOWA BY
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...24/00Z
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
WILL TURN FROM NNE TO SSE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING THEN INCREASE A
BIT DURING THE DAY. A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT BR ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD
SUNRISE BUT PROBABILITY AND IMPACT TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME. WILL REASSESS FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE. A FEW SHRA/TSRA
ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND FOD/MCW THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN
PROBABILITY TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION AT THIS RANGE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG/JOHNSON
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 232326
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
626 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS MOSTLY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. AS HIGH
PUSHES EAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WITH INCREASE WAA ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE WARMED LOWS SLIGHTLY
GIVEN AMOUNT OF WARMING IN THE AFTERNOON AND WAA AND INCREASING
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REACH
WESTERN IOWA BY EARLY MORNING...THOUGH BEST FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE
INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS...HAVE
THEREFORE OPTED FOR A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY
BE TOO DRY IN THE WEST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH TO PROPAGATE EAST OF IOWA BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
CWA TO RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT HIGH SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO HOLD MORE NOTABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF UNTIL FRI. 700 MB
TEMPS FCST TO BE NEAR +11C WHICH WOULD CAP OFF MOST
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ADDITIONAL PROBLEM THURSDAY
IN THE DMX CWA WILL BE A NOTABLE LACK OF MOISTURE. SFC TROUGH TO
PASS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 40 TO
45 KTS AT 850 MB WILL SUPPORT DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO WESTERN IOWA BY 06Z AND INTERSTATE 35 BY 12Z...BRINGING PWAT
VALUES UP TO +1 TO +2 STD DEV. TIGHT GRADIENT OF THETA-E ADVECTION
TO MOVE ACROSS CWA FROM WEST TO EAST. CAPE VALUES FRI MORNING NOT
SIGNIFICANT SO NO SVR WEATHER THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTH...SO EXPECT DECENT PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY. SHEAR PROFILE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN STORMS AS THEY
PROPAGATE EASTWARD...PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. FORECAST
ISSUE WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ORIENTED N-S TO MOVE ACROSS CWA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...H850
TEMPS PUSHING +25C AND H750 MB TEMPS PUSHING +15C WILL CREATE
FORMIDABLE CAP. BEST FORCING TO BE EAST OF CWA WITH MORNING
SYSTEM. WITH NO APPARENT TRIGGERS OR FORCING MECHANISMS TO HELP
BREAK CAP...SO WILL CONFINE FRIDAY PM POPS TO EASTERN PARTS OF
CWA. REGARDLESS OF POPS...AM CONFIDENT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 95 TO 105 FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CWA.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL THEME OF
AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US AND
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTER OVER IOWA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES IN FORECAST MAY NOT CAPTURE THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES AND WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. THERE WILL BE A FEW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BE EAST OF IOWA BY
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...24/00Z
ISSUED AT 626 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS
WILL TURN FROM NNE TO SSE BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING THEN INCREASE A
BIT DURING THE DAY. A FEW PATCHES OF LIGHT BR ARE POSSIBLE TOWARD
SUNRISE BUT PROBABILITY AND IMPACT TOO LOW FOR INCLUSION IN TAFS
AT THIS TIME. WILL REASSESS FOR THE 06Z ISSUANCE. A FEW SHRA/TSRA
ALSO POSSIBLE AROUND FOD/MCW THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN
PROBABILITY TOO LOW FOR ANY MENTION AT THIS RANGE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG/JOHNSON
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 232012
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
312 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS MOSTLY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. AS HIGH
PUSHES EAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WITH INCREASE WAA ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE WARMED LOWS SLIGHTLY
GIVEN AMOUNT OF WARMING IN THE AFTERNOON AND WAA AND INCREASING
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REACH
WESTERN IOWA BY EARLY MORNING...THOUGH BEST FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE
INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS...HAVE
THEREFORE OPTED FOR A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY
BE TOO DRY IN THE WEST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH TO PROPAGATE EAST OF IOWA BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
CWA TO RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT HIGH SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO HOLD MORE NOTABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF UNTIL FRI. 700 MB
TEMPS FCST TO BE NEAR +11C WHICH WOULD CAP OFF MOST
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ADDITIONAL PROBLEM THURSDAY
IN THE DMX CWA WILL BE A NOTABLE LACK OF MOISTURE. SFC TROUGH TO
PASS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 40 TO
45 KTS AT 850 MB WILL SUPPORT DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO WESTERN IOWA BY 06Z AND INTERSTATE 35 BY 12Z...BRINGING PWAT
VALUES UP TO +1 TO +2 STD DEV. TIGHT GRADIENT OF THETA-E ADVECTION
TO MOVE ACROSS CWA FROM WEST TO EAST. CAPE VALUES FRI MORNING NOT
SIGNIFICANT SO NO SVR WEATHER THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTH...SO EXPECT DECENT PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY. SHEAR PROFILE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN STORMS AS THEY
PROPAGATE EASTWARD...PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. FORECAST
ISSUE WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ORIENTED N-S TO MOVE ACROSS CWA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...H850
TEMPS PUSHING +25C AND H750 MB TEMPS PUSHING +15C WILL CREATE
FORMIDABLE CAP. BEST FORCING TO BE EAST OF CWA WITH MORNING
SYSTEM. WITH NO APPARENT TRIGGERS OR FORCING MECHANISMS TO HELP
BREAK CAP...SO WILL CONFINE FRIDAY PM POPS TO EASTERN PARTS OF
CWA. REGARDLESS OF POPS...AM CONFIDENT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 95 TO 105 FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CWA.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL THEME OF
AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US AND
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTER OVER IOWA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES IN FORECAST MAY NOT CAPTURE THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES AND WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. THERE WILL BE A FEW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BE EAST OF IOWA BY
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIOD...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. MAY SEE TSRA/VCTS AT
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SITES...KFOD/KMCW...NEAR END OF PERIOD AND
BEYOND PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG/JOHNSON
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 232012
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
312 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO GREAT LAKES
REGION OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY THROUGHOUT
THE OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUDS MOSTLY DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. AS HIGH
PUSHES EAST WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY LATE IN THE
PERIOD...WITH INCREASE WAA ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE WARMED LOWS SLIGHTLY
GIVEN AMOUNT OF WARMING IN THE AFTERNOON AND WAA AND INCREASING
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST. APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REACH
WESTERN IOWA BY EARLY MORNING...THOUGH BEST FORCING DOES NOT ARRIVE
INTO CWA UNTIL AFTER 12Z. GIVEN RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS...HAVE
THEREFORE OPTED FOR A DRY FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD...THOUGH MAY
BE TOO DRY IN THE WEST IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...
SURFACE HIGH TO PROPAGATE EAST OF IOWA BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
CWA TO RETURN TO SOUTHERLY FLOW...BUT HIGH SHOULD BE CLOSE ENOUGH
TO HOLD MORE NOTABLE WARM AIR ADVECTION OFF UNTIL FRI. 700 MB
TEMPS FCST TO BE NEAR +11C WHICH WOULD CAP OFF MOST
CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-35. ADDITIONAL PROBLEM THURSDAY
IN THE DMX CWA WILL BE A NOTABLE LACK OF MOISTURE. SFC TROUGH TO
PASS THROUGH THE DAKOTAS AND INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/NORTHERN IOWA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS OF 40 TO
45 KTS AT 850 MB WILL SUPPORT DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT
INTO WESTERN IOWA BY 06Z AND INTERSTATE 35 BY 12Z...BRINGING PWAT
VALUES UP TO +1 TO +2 STD DEV. TIGHT GRADIENT OF THETA-E ADVECTION
TO MOVE ACROSS CWA FROM WEST TO EAST. CAPE VALUES FRI MORNING NOT
SIGNIFICANT SO NO SVR WEATHER THREAT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
DECENT WARM CLOUD DEPTH...SO EXPECT DECENT PRECIPITATION
EFFICIENCY. SHEAR PROFILE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN STORMS AS THEY
PROPAGATE EASTWARD...PUSHING EAST OF THE CWA BY 18Z. FORECAST
ISSUE WILL BE IF THERE WILL BE AFTERNOON CONVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH DAYTIME HEATING. MODELS SHOWING AXIS OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
ORIENTED N-S TO MOVE ACROSS CWA DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER...H850
TEMPS PUSHING +25C AND H750 MB TEMPS PUSHING +15C WILL CREATE
FORMIDABLE CAP. BEST FORCING TO BE EAST OF CWA WITH MORNING
SYSTEM. WITH NO APPARENT TRIGGERS OR FORCING MECHANISMS TO HELP
BREAK CAP...SO WILL CONFINE FRIDAY PM POPS TO EASTERN PARTS OF
CWA. REGARDLESS OF POPS...AM CONFIDENT THAT HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL
RANGE FROM 95 TO 105 FOR CENTRAL TO SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF CWA.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER AT 12Z SATURDAY. THE
12Z MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL THEME OF
AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND EASTERN US AND
A RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR WILL
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTER OVER IOWA FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. TEMPERATURES IN FORECAST MAY NOT CAPTURE THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES AND WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED. THERE WILL BE A FEW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES DURING THIS TIME FRAME...BUT THE WEATHER
SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY. SURFACE RIDGE SHOULD BE EAST OF IOWA BY
WEDNESDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM BEYOND THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIOD...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. MAY SEE TSRA/VCTS AT
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SITES...KFOD/KMCW...NEAR END OF PERIOD AND
BEYOND PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG/JOHNSON
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 231733
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE TODAY AND PROVIDE DRY AND
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT DEW POINTS TO BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN TUESDAY DEW POINTS RESULTING IN MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND TODAY FOR MAX
TEMPS AS MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES. MAY
SEE A FEW MID-LEVEL CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AROUND
5000 FEET.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

COOL FRONT EXPECTED TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TONIGHT...ALOFT A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUE OVER THE WEST CONUS WITH RING OF FIRE
SHORT WAVE/THUNDER MIGRATING ACROSS OREGON/WASHINGTON EAST TO THE
DAKOTAS WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
IN THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL NOT REACH OUR AREA BUT THE SECOND AND
THIRD NOW OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EVENTUALLY
TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIM OF THE HOT DOME TO OUR WEST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A PORTION OF THE SECOND WAVE
MOVING INTO WEST/NORTHWEST IOWA BY 12-18Z THURSDAY AND WEAKENING...
WHILE THE THIRD WAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST AND AFFECTS MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE WINDS ALOFT ARE INCREASING TOWARD
THURSDAY EVENING...LEE SIDE TROUGHING WITH HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE
BUILDING BACK TOWARD THE AREA WITH A STRONG PUSH OF WARM
AIR/THETAE ADVECTION INTO THE COOLER AIR STILL LEFTOVER ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON INTENSIFYING H850-H700
FRONTOGENESIS WITH STRONG H850 INFLOW BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z OF 40 TO
50KTS. WITH FORCING INCREASING...FOCUS FOR A MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION AND RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY
FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF IOWA TONIGHT HAS
TAKEN MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT...SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWS POOL OF 15C DEW POINTS HOVERING ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING 75F DEW POINTS CLINGING TO THE FRONT IN
MISSOURI. AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN...THE MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING SOUTH AND
IN THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1.5 INCHES BY 06Z FRIDAY AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL INCREASE TO 13
TO 13.5 KFT. THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE WHICH
MODEL IS CAPTURING THE LOCATION OF THE FORCING BEST...BASED ON
CONSENSUS IT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAT AN MCS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN OR NORTHEAST IOWA LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS AREA
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL
LESSEN THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...BUFR
SOUNDINGS AT KALO DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
CURRENTLY THE GFS/GEM ARE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN/STORMS THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY 12Z TO 18Z FRIDAY WITH THE
NAM AND 22/00Z AND 23/00Z EURO FAVORING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY AM LEANING TOWARD THE EURO WHICH SUGGESTS 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALLS POSSIBLE NEARER THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES EAST FRIDAY MORNING THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARMEST AIR
MOVING BACK SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE DAY. SOME RESIDUAL
THUNDER WILL REMAIN EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS
SHIFTS EAST BY THEN. FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS RATHER WARM SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN AND
HEAT INDICES NEARING 100F SOUTHWEST.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A PACNW
H500 WAVE CROSSING THE RIDGE AND PHASING WITH A STRONGER H500 LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA. AS THE SYSTEMS PHASE...A CUTOFF LOW SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER
WEATHER RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THAT THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...WE WILL LIKELY BE PLEASANTLY COOL WITH H850 TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80
AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE
SYSTEM...WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIOD...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. MAY SEE TSRA/VCTS AT
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SITES...KFOD/KMCW...NEAR END OF PERIOD AND
BEYOND PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 231733
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1233 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE TODAY AND PROVIDE DRY AND
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT DEW POINTS TO BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN TUESDAY DEW POINTS RESULTING IN MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND TODAY FOR MAX
TEMPS AS MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES. MAY
SEE A FEW MID-LEVEL CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AROUND
5000 FEET.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

COOL FRONT EXPECTED TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TONIGHT...ALOFT A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUE OVER THE WEST CONUS WITH RING OF FIRE
SHORT WAVE/THUNDER MIGRATING ACROSS OREGON/WASHINGTON EAST TO THE
DAKOTAS WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
IN THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL NOT REACH OUR AREA BUT THE SECOND AND
THIRD NOW OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EVENTUALLY
TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIM OF THE HOT DOME TO OUR WEST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A PORTION OF THE SECOND WAVE
MOVING INTO WEST/NORTHWEST IOWA BY 12-18Z THURSDAY AND WEAKENING...
WHILE THE THIRD WAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST AND AFFECTS MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE WINDS ALOFT ARE INCREASING TOWARD
THURSDAY EVENING...LEE SIDE TROUGHING WITH HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE
BUILDING BACK TOWARD THE AREA WITH A STRONG PUSH OF WARM
AIR/THETAE ADVECTION INTO THE COOLER AIR STILL LEFTOVER ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON INTENSIFYING H850-H700
FRONTOGENESIS WITH STRONG H850 INFLOW BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z OF 40 TO
50KTS. WITH FORCING INCREASING...FOCUS FOR A MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION AND RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY
FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF IOWA TONIGHT HAS
TAKEN MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT...SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWS POOL OF 15C DEW POINTS HOVERING ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING 75F DEW POINTS CLINGING TO THE FRONT IN
MISSOURI. AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN...THE MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING SOUTH AND
IN THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1.5 INCHES BY 06Z FRIDAY AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL INCREASE TO 13
TO 13.5 KFT. THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE WHICH
MODEL IS CAPTURING THE LOCATION OF THE FORCING BEST...BASED ON
CONSENSUS IT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAT AN MCS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN OR NORTHEAST IOWA LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS AREA
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL
LESSEN THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...BUFR
SOUNDINGS AT KALO DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
CURRENTLY THE GFS/GEM ARE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN/STORMS THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY 12Z TO 18Z FRIDAY WITH THE
NAM AND 22/00Z AND 23/00Z EURO FAVORING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY AM LEANING TOWARD THE EURO WHICH SUGGESTS 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALLS POSSIBLE NEARER THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES EAST FRIDAY MORNING THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARMEST AIR
MOVING BACK SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE DAY. SOME RESIDUAL
THUNDER WILL REMAIN EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS
SHIFTS EAST BY THEN. FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS RATHER WARM SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN AND
HEAT INDICES NEARING 100F SOUTHWEST.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A PACNW
H500 WAVE CROSSING THE RIDGE AND PHASING WITH A STRONGER H500 LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA. AS THE SYSTEMS PHASE...A CUTOFF LOW SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER
WEATHER RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THAT THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...WE WILL LIKELY BE PLEASANTLY COOL WITH H850 TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80
AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE
SYSTEM...WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 1223 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIOD...WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
THE SOUTH AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM. MAY SEE TSRA/VCTS AT
WESTERN AND NORTHERN SITES...KFOD/KMCW...NEAR END OF PERIOD AND
BEYOND PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 231128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE TODAY AND PROVIDE DRY AND
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT DEW POINTS TO BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN TUESDAY DEW POINTS RESULTING IN MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND TODAY FOR MAX
TEMPS AS MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES. MAY
SEE A FEW MID-LEVEL CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AROUND
5000 FEET.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

COOL FRONT EXPECTED TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TONIGHT...ALOFT A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUE OVER THE WEST CONUS WITH RING OF FIRE
SHORT WAVE/THUNDER MIGRATING ACROSS OREGON/WASHINGTON EAST TO THE
DAKOTAS WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
IN THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL NOT REACH OUR AREA BUT THE SECOND AND
THIRD NOW OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EVENTUALLY
TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIM OF THE HOT DOME TO OUR WEST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A PORTION OF THE SECOND WAVE
MOVING INTO WEST/NORTHWEST IOWA BY 12-18Z THURSDAY AND WEAKENING...
WHILE THE THIRD WAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST AND AFFECTS MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE WINDS ALOFT ARE INCREASING TOWARD
THURSDAY EVENING...LEE SIDE TROUGHING WITH HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE
BUILDING BACK TOWARD THE AREA WITH A STRONG PUSH OF WARM
AIR/THETAE ADVECTION INTO THE COOLER AIR STILL LEFTOVER ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON INTENSIFYING H850-H700
FRONTOGENESIS WITH STRONG H850 INFLOW BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z OF 40 TO
50KTS. WITH FORCING INCREASING...FOCUS FOR A MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION AND RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY
FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF IOWA TONIGHT HAS
TAKEN MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT...SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWS POOL OF 15C DEW POINTS HOVERING ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING 75F DEW POINTS CLINGING TO THE FRONT IN
MISSOURI. AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN...THE MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING SOUTH AND
IN THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1.5 INCHES BY 06Z FRIDAY AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL INCREASE TO 13
TO 13.5 KFT. THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE WHICH
MODEL IS CAPTURING THE LOCATION OF THE FORCING BEST...BASED ON
CONSENSUS IT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAT AN MCS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN OR NORTHEAST IOWA LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS AREA
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL
LESSEN THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...BUFR
SOUNDINGS AT KALO DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
CURRENTLY THE GFS/GEM ARE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN/STORMS THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY 12Z TO 18Z FRIDAY WITH THE
NAM AND 22/00Z AND 23/00Z EURO FAVORING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY AM LEANING TOWARD THE EURO WHICH SUGGESTS 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALLS POSSIBLE NEARER THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES EAST FRIDAY MORNING THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARMEST AIR
MOVING BACK SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE DAY. SOME RESIDUAL
THUNDER WILL REMAIN EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS
SHIFTS EAST BY THEN. FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS RATHER WARM SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN AND
HEAT INDICES NEARING 100F SOUTHWEST.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A PACNW
H500 WAVE CROSSING THE RIDGE AND PHASING WITH A STRONGER H500 LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA. AS THE SYSTEMS PHASE...A CUTOFF LOW SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER
WEATHER RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THAT THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...WE WILL LIKELY BE PLEASANTLY COOL WITH H850 TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80
AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE
SYSTEM...WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...23/12Z
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH MENTIONING ATTM AS CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AND WINDS INCREASING JUST ENOUGH BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 231128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE TODAY AND PROVIDE DRY AND
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT DEW POINTS TO BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN TUESDAY DEW POINTS RESULTING IN MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND TODAY FOR MAX
TEMPS AS MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES. MAY
SEE A FEW MID-LEVEL CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AROUND
5000 FEET.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

COOL FRONT EXPECTED TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TONIGHT...ALOFT A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUE OVER THE WEST CONUS WITH RING OF FIRE
SHORT WAVE/THUNDER MIGRATING ACROSS OREGON/WASHINGTON EAST TO THE
DAKOTAS WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
IN THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL NOT REACH OUR AREA BUT THE SECOND AND
THIRD NOW OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EVENTUALLY
TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIM OF THE HOT DOME TO OUR WEST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A PORTION OF THE SECOND WAVE
MOVING INTO WEST/NORTHWEST IOWA BY 12-18Z THURSDAY AND WEAKENING...
WHILE THE THIRD WAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST AND AFFECTS MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE WINDS ALOFT ARE INCREASING TOWARD
THURSDAY EVENING...LEE SIDE TROUGHING WITH HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE
BUILDING BACK TOWARD THE AREA WITH A STRONG PUSH OF WARM
AIR/THETAE ADVECTION INTO THE COOLER AIR STILL LEFTOVER ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON INTENSIFYING H850-H700
FRONTOGENESIS WITH STRONG H850 INFLOW BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z OF 40 TO
50KTS. WITH FORCING INCREASING...FOCUS FOR A MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION AND RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY
FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF IOWA TONIGHT HAS
TAKEN MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT...SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWS POOL OF 15C DEW POINTS HOVERING ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING 75F DEW POINTS CLINGING TO THE FRONT IN
MISSOURI. AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN...THE MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING SOUTH AND
IN THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1.5 INCHES BY 06Z FRIDAY AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL INCREASE TO 13
TO 13.5 KFT. THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE WHICH
MODEL IS CAPTURING THE LOCATION OF THE FORCING BEST...BASED ON
CONSENSUS IT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAT AN MCS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN OR NORTHEAST IOWA LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS AREA
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL
LESSEN THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...BUFR
SOUNDINGS AT KALO DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
CURRENTLY THE GFS/GEM ARE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN/STORMS THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY 12Z TO 18Z FRIDAY WITH THE
NAM AND 22/00Z AND 23/00Z EURO FAVORING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY AM LEANING TOWARD THE EURO WHICH SUGGESTS 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALLS POSSIBLE NEARER THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES EAST FRIDAY MORNING THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARMEST AIR
MOVING BACK SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE DAY. SOME RESIDUAL
THUNDER WILL REMAIN EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS
SHIFTS EAST BY THEN. FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS RATHER WARM SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN AND
HEAT INDICES NEARING 100F SOUTHWEST.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A PACNW
H500 WAVE CROSSING THE RIDGE AND PHASING WITH A STRONGER H500 LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA. AS THE SYSTEMS PHASE...A CUTOFF LOW SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER
WEATHER RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THAT THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...WE WILL LIKELY BE PLEASANTLY COOL WITH H850 TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80
AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE
SYSTEM...WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...23/12Z
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. A LOW
POTENTIAL FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP EARLY THURSDAY MORNING...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH MENTIONING ATTM AS CLOUD COVER MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST AND WINDS INCREASING JUST ENOUGH BY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 230750
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
250 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE TODAY AND PROVIDE DRY AND
PLEASANT CONDITIONS. BY THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT DEW POINTS TO BE
15 TO 20 DEGREES LESS THAN TUESDAY DEW POINTS RESULTING IN MUCH
MORE COMFORTABLE CONDITIONS. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND TODAY FOR MAX
TEMPS AS MODELS WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WRT TEMPERATURES. MAY
SEE A FEW MID-LEVEL CUMULUS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY AROUND
5000 FEET.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 239 AM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

COOL FRONT EXPECTED TO BE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ACROSS THE REGION AND EAST OF THE AREA BY
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. TONIGHT...ALOFT A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE CONTINUE OVER THE WEST CONUS WITH RING OF FIRE
SHORT WAVE/THUNDER MIGRATING ACROSS OREGON/WASHINGTON EAST TO THE
DAKOTAS WITH SEVERAL SHORT WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
IN THE SERIES OF WAVES WILL NOT REACH OUR AREA BUT THE SECOND AND
THIRD NOW OVER OREGON AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL EVENTUALLY
TRACK INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ALONG THE RIM OF THE HOT DOME TO OUR WEST.
MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH A PORTION OF THE SECOND WAVE
MOVING INTO WEST/NORTHWEST IOWA BY 12-18Z THURSDAY AND WEAKENING...
WHILE THE THIRD WAVE DRIVES SOUTHEAST AND AFFECTS MAINLY THE
NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. WHILE THE WINDS ALOFT ARE INCREASING TOWARD
THURSDAY EVENING...LEE SIDE TROUGHING WITH HOT CONDITIONS WILL BE
BUILDING BACK TOWARD THE AREA WITH A STRONG PUSH OF WARM
AIR/THETAE ADVECTION INTO THE COOLER AIR STILL LEFTOVER ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. MODELS CONTINUE TO KEY ON INTENSIFYING H850-H700
FRONTOGENESIS WITH STRONG H850 INFLOW BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z OF 40 TO
50KTS. WITH FORCING INCREASING...FOCUS FOR A MORE CONCENTRATED
AREA OF CONVECTION AND RAINFALL IS BEGINNING TO APPEAR MORE LIKELY
FOR THE NORTHEAST. THE COLD FRONT NOW SOUTH OF IOWA TONIGHT HAS
TAKEN MOST OF THE MOISTURE WITH IT...SUBJECTIVE H850 ANALYSIS
SHOWS POOL OF 15C DEW POINTS HOVERING ALONG THE GULF COAST WITH
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWING 75F DEW POINTS CLINGING TO THE FRONT IN
MISSOURI. AS THE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST AND SOUTHERLY WINDS
RETURN...THE MOISTURE WILL QUICKLY RETURN AS WELL WITH DEW POINTS
BACK IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY LATE THURSDAY EVENING SOUTH AND
IN THE LOWER 60S NORTHEAST. AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES FOR LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL INCREASE TO
1.5 INCHES BY 06Z FRIDAY AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL INCREASE TO 13
TO 13.5 KFT. THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE WHICH
MODEL IS CAPTURING THE LOCATION OF THE FORCING BEST...BASED ON
CONSENSUS IT IS APPEARING MORE LIKELY THAT AN MCS MAY DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTHERN MN OR NORTHEAST IOWA LATE THURSDAY EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FRIDAY MORNING. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL IN THIS AREA
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE TIMING OF INCREASED INSTABILITY WILL
LESSEN THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER THURSDAY NIGHT...BUFR
SOUNDINGS AT KALO DO SHOW POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.
CURRENTLY THE GFS/GEM ARE SLOWER IN BRINGING THE PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAIN/STORMS THROUGH THE AREA...MAINLY 12Z TO 18Z FRIDAY WITH THE
NAM AND 22/00Z AND 23/00Z EURO FAVORING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. CURRENTLY AM LEANING TOWARD THE EURO WHICH SUGGESTS 1 TO
2 INCH RAINFALLS POSSIBLE NEARER THE BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT. AS
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVES EAST FRIDAY MORNING THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY TRANSLATE SOUTHEAST WITH THE WARMEST AIR
MOVING BACK SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA BY LATE DAY. SOME RESIDUAL
THUNDER WILL REMAIN EAST FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT THE BEST DYNAMICS
SHIFTS EAST BY THEN. FRIDAY AFTERNOON LOOKS RATHER WARM SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST...WITH HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN AND
HEAT INDICES NEARING 100F SOUTHWEST.

FOLLOWING THIS SYSTEM...THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A PACNW
H500 WAVE CROSSING THE RIDGE AND PHASING WITH A STRONGER H500 LOW
OVER HUDSON BAY CANADA. AS THE SYSTEMS PHASE...A CUTOFF LOW SHOULD
DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES WITH UNSEASONABLY COOLER
WEATHER RETURNING TO MUCH OF THE GREAT LAKES AND CENTRAL PLAINS.
GIVEN THAT THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
NORTHWEST FLOW...WE WILL LIKELY BE PLEASANTLY COOL WITH H850 TEMPS
IN THE LOWER TO MID TEENS SUPPORTING HIGHS IN THE 70S TO NEAR 80
AND LOWS IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. DEPENDING ON THE POSITION OF THE
SYSTEM...WE MAY ALSO SEE SOME SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE COOLER AIR MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION. THE COOLER WEATHER WILL HOLD THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...23/00Z
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT GENERALLY NORTH WINDS. NO PRECIP OR OBSCURATIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 230005
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
705 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION SO FAR.  WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BETTER
COVERAGE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS INTO MISSOURI.  CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR INTENSE
UPDRAFTS ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.  AT THIS POINT...
MAY SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PRIOR TO DEPARTURE
FROM THE STATE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
OTHERWISE...WILL STILL SEE A FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER
100S ALONG AND SOUTH OF KALO-KAMW-KADU LINE AND HAVE CONTINUED THE
ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS.  OTHERWISE...NORTH WINDS WILL TRANSPORT A
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER PLAINS WEDNESDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER AS HIGH
PUSHES SOUTH WINDS WILL AGAIN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGE TO THE WEST OF
STATE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH WAVE PUSHING THROUGH RIDGE TO THE WEST OF IOWA
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY...BEFORE DECREASING SOMEWHAT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH...THOUGH STILL FEEL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY. BETTER FORCING ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. MODELS
KEEP BEST DYNAMICS WEST OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THURSDAY...THOUGH ENOUGH CAPE/SHEAR ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TO ALLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND STORMS MAY BE SEVERE IN WEST AND
NORTH...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SYSTEM WILL PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DROP SOUTH...GENERALLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE POOR
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS HOWEVER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL...THOUGH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
NEAR LOW AS IT BEGINS TO PULL EASTWARD. FOR END OF
EXTENDED...MODELS INDICATE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING INTO
ROCKIES...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS IOWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...23/00Z
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT GENERALLY NORTH WINDS. NO PRECIP OR OBSCURATIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 230005
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
705 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION SO FAR.  WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BETTER
COVERAGE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS INTO MISSOURI.  CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR INTENSE
UPDRAFTS ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.  AT THIS POINT...
MAY SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PRIOR TO DEPARTURE
FROM THE STATE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
OTHERWISE...WILL STILL SEE A FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER
100S ALONG AND SOUTH OF KALO-KAMW-KADU LINE AND HAVE CONTINUED THE
ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS.  OTHERWISE...NORTH WINDS WILL TRANSPORT A
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER PLAINS WEDNESDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER AS HIGH
PUSHES SOUTH WINDS WILL AGAIN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGE TO THE WEST OF
STATE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH WAVE PUSHING THROUGH RIDGE TO THE WEST OF IOWA
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY...BEFORE DECREASING SOMEWHAT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH...THOUGH STILL FEEL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY. BETTER FORCING ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. MODELS
KEEP BEST DYNAMICS WEST OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THURSDAY...THOUGH ENOUGH CAPE/SHEAR ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TO ALLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND STORMS MAY BE SEVERE IN WEST AND
NORTH...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SYSTEM WILL PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DROP SOUTH...GENERALLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE POOR
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS HOWEVER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL...THOUGH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
NEAR LOW AS IT BEGINS TO PULL EASTWARD. FOR END OF
EXTENDED...MODELS INDICATE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING INTO
ROCKIES...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS IOWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...23/00Z
ISSUED AT 705 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT GENERALLY NORTH WINDS. NO PRECIP OR OBSCURATIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 222037
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION SO FAR.  WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BETTER
COVERAGE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS INTO MISSOURI.  CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR INTENSE
UPDRAFTS ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.  AT THIS POINT...
MAY SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PRIOR TO DEPARTURE
FROM THE STATE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
OTHERWISE...WILL STILL SEE A FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER
100S ALONG AND SOUTH OF KALO-KAMW-KADU LINE AND HAVE CONTINUED THE
ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS.  OTHERWISE...NORTH WINDS WILL TRANSPORT A
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER PLAINS WEDNESDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER AS HIGH
PUSHES SOUTH WINDS WILL AGAIN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGE TO THE WEST OF
STATE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH WAVE PUSHING THROUGH RIDGE TO THE WEST OF IOWA
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY...BEFORE DECREASING SOMEWHAT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH...THOUGH STILL FEEL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY. BETTER FORCING ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. MODELS
KEEP BEST DYNAMICS WEST OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THURSDAY...THOUGH ENOUGH CAPE/SHEAR ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TO ALLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND STORMS MAY BE SEVERE IN WEST AND
NORTH...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SYSTEM WILL PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DROP SOUTH...GENERALLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE POOR
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS HOWEVER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL...THOUGH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
NEAR LOW AS IT BEGINS TO PULL EASTWARD. FOR END OF
EXTENDED...MODELS INDICATE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING INTO
ROCKIES...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS IOWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WEAK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO POLK COUNTY MAY SKIRT JUST
NORTH OF DSM AIRPORT THIS MORNING AND HAVE VCTS MENTIONED ATTM.
HAVE MVFR VIS AT MCW DUE TO FOG IMPROVING BY 13Z...BUT MAY LINGER
AS LATE AS 14Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AT OTM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT AND LEFT TAF DRY
ATTM.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-
GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-
MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 222037
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH
ONLY ISOLATED CONVECTION SO FAR.  WILL LIKELY SEE SOME BETTER
COVERAGE ACRS THE FAR SOUTH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE BOUNDARY
SHIFTS INTO MISSOURI.  CERTAINLY SUFFICIENT CAPE FOR INTENSE
UPDRAFTS ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR SOMEWHAT MARGINAL.  AT THIS POINT...
MAY SEE A FEW SEVERE STORMS IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST PRIOR TO DEPARTURE
FROM THE STATE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.
OTHERWISE...WILL STILL SEE A FEW HOURS OF HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER
100S ALONG AND SOUTH OF KALO-KAMW-KADU LINE AND HAVE CONTINUED THE
ADVISORY IN THESE AREAS.  OTHERWISE...NORTH WINDS WILL TRANSPORT A
MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE CANADIAN AIRMASS INTO THE STATE OVERNIGHT WITH
TEMPERATURES MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL BY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO THE UPPER PLAINS WEDNESDAY
WITH COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY. HOWEVER AS HIGH
PUSHES SOUTH WINDS WILL AGAIN SHIFT TO THE SOUTH WITH INCREASING
MOISTURE THROUGH THE NIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RIDGE TO THE WEST OF
STATE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH WAVE PUSHING THROUGH RIDGE TO THE WEST OF IOWA
THURSDAY. HOWEVER...TIMING HAS NOT BEEN CONSISTENT. CURRENT MODEL
TRENDS INDICATE BEST CHANCE ACROSS THE WEST IN THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY...BEFORE DECREASING SOMEWHAT INTO THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE
WEAKENS AND LIFTS NORTH...THOUGH STILL FEEL ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
FORCING WILL BE PRESENT TO ALLOW FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THROUGH
THE DAY. BETTER FORCING ARRIVES OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. MODELS
KEEP BEST DYNAMICS WEST OF CWA IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS
THURSDAY...THOUGH ENOUGH CAPE/SHEAR ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA TO ALLOW
FOR THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...AND STORMS MAY BE SEVERE IN WEST AND
NORTH...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

SYSTEM WILL PUSH QUICKLY EASTWARD AND LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL
DROP SOUTH...GENERALLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE POOR
AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THIS HOWEVER. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL...THOUGH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE GENERALLY LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
NEAR LOW AS IT BEGINS TO PULL EASTWARD. FOR END OF
EXTENDED...MODELS INDICATE AMPLIFIED RIDGE BUILDING INTO
ROCKIES...WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS IOWA. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY
DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

WEAK ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM MOVING INTO POLK COUNTY MAY SKIRT JUST
NORTH OF DSM AIRPORT THIS MORNING AND HAVE VCTS MENTIONED ATTM.
HAVE MVFR VIS AT MCW DUE TO FOG IMPROVING BY 13Z...BUT MAY LINGER
AS LATE AS 14Z. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION AT OTM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY DEVELOPMENT AND LEFT TAF DRY
ATTM.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-CASS-CLARKE-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-
GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-
MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




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