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000
FXUS63 KDMX 210432
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1132 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST IA
INTO SOUTHERN MN...WITH A RIDGE UPSTREAM AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. AS THE LATTER FRONT NEARS IOWA
OVERNIGHT IT WILL SQUEEZE THE PRECEDING RIDGE AND TROUGH INTO A
NEBULOUS WEAK FLOW REGION THAT WILL SINK ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST IA TROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AS A MODEST LLJ KICKS IN CONCURRENT WITH BROAD BUT WEAK
LIFT PRECEDING A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION. DESPITE
THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE RAIN SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED AT ANY GIVEN
TIME...AND HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS BUT HELD OFF ON CATEGORICAL
FOR THIS REASON. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE LIMITED AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DID INCREASE LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT DUE
TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SAGGING TROUGH.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS IOWA ON
MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.  THERE
IS WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...ENOUGH TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS UNIMPRESSIVE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WE LOSE OUR
MOISTURE FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SYSTEM. PRECIP
SHOULD END ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE BY 18Z AND LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 00Z BUT THUNDER SHOULD BE MORE
ISOLATED AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BUT OVERALL WE ARE LOOKING AT BETWEEN A TENTH
AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY MONDAY AND I MAY BE
TOO WARM GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. WE WILL HAVE SOME
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MORNING THEN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THE WINDS
TURN WESTERLY BEFORE GOING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD
HIT THEIR MAXES ACROSS THE NORTH BY NOON THEN REMAIN STEADY OR
FALL. ACROSS THE SOUTH THERE WILL BE A COUPLE MORE HOURS FOR TEMPS
TO CLIMB BEFORE FROPA.

THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST MONDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE STATE.  TEMPS WILL BE COOL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID
40S SOUTH.  TUESDAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY...SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NORTH
WIND AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.  THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE DECENT DAY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  A DEEPENING LOW WILL DIG A TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  BY
WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA/WRN IA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS DIVERGE HERE AS THE EURO DIGS MORE OF A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE LOW AND PUSHES EVERYTHING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER THAT WE STAY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPS REMAIN COOL INTO
THE WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS DIGGING THIS HUGE TROUGH WEST OF THE
ROCKIES WHILE THE EURO HAS A TROUGH THAT IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG OR
SHARP AND IT SWINGS UP AGAINST A DEPARTING RIDGE IN EASTERN IA/IL.
THE EURO BREAKS OUT PRECIP OVER A BROAD REGION...INCLUDING IOWA
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE NARROW WITH IT/S QPF FORECAST...OWING TO THE
SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH. AS FOR THE GRIDS...THE ALLBLENDS KEEP
POPS IN AND CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
OR NARROW POPS. LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND WET WEEKEND NEXT WEEKEND AT
THIS POINT. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT IT WILL COOL AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHRA AND TSRA HAVE FORMED NEAR BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN SITES KMCW/KALO/KFOD BEFORE
SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH OVERNIGHT...REACHING KDSM NEAR 12Z AND KOTM
AFTER. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY
VFR...THOUGH MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR LOWER WITH TSRA. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF BOUNDARY...MORE VARIABLE NEAR
BOUNDARY AND FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING NEAR SUNSET.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 202322
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
622 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST IA
INTO SOUTHERN MN...WITH A RIDGE UPSTREAM AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. AS THE LATTER FRONT NEARS IOWA
OVERNIGHT IT WILL SQUEEZE THE PRECEDING RIDGE AND TROUGH INTO A
NEBULOUS WEAK FLOW REGION THAT WILL SINK ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST IA TROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AS A MODEST LLJ KICKS IN CONCURRENT WITH BROAD BUT WEAK
LIFT PRECEDING A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION. DESPITE
THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE RAIN SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED AT ANY GIVEN
TIME...AND HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS BUT HELD OFF ON CATEGORICAL
FOR THIS REASON. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE LIMITED AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DID INCREASE LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT DUE
TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SAGGING TROUGH.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS IOWA ON
MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.  THERE
IS WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...ENOUGH TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS UNIMPRESSIVE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WE LOSE OUR
MOISTURE FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SYSTEM. PRECIP
SHOULD END ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE BY 18Z AND LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 00Z BUT THUNDER SHOULD BE MORE
ISOLATED AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BUT OVERALL WE ARE LOOKING AT BETWEEN A TENTH
AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY MONDAY AND I MAY BE
TOO WARM GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. WE WILL HAVE SOME
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MORNING THEN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THE WINDS
TURN WESTERLY BEFORE GOING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD
HIT THEIR MAXES ACROSS THE NORTH BY NOON THEN REMAIN STEADY OR
FALL. ACROSS THE SOUTH THERE WILL BE A COUPLE MORE HOURS FOR TEMPS
TO CLIMB BEFORE FROPA.

THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST MONDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE STATE.  TEMPS WILL BE COOL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID
40S SOUTH.  TUESDAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY...SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NORTH
WIND AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.  THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE DECENT DAY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  A DEEPENING LOW WILL DIG A TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  BY
WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA/WRN IA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS DIVERGE HERE AS THE EURO DIGS MORE OF A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE LOW AND PUSHES EVERYTHING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER THAT WE STAY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPS REMAIN COOL INTO
THE WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS DIGGING THIS HUGE TROUGH WEST OF THE
ROCKIES WHILE THE EURO HAS A TROUGH THAT IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG OR
SHARP AND IT SWINGS UP AGAINST A DEPARTING RIDGE IN EASTERN IA/IL.
THE EURO BREAKS OUT PRECIP OVER A BROAD REGION...INCLUDING IOWA
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE NARROW WITH IT/S QPF FORECAST...OWING TO THE
SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH. AS FOR THE GRIDS...THE ALLBLENDS KEEP
POPS IN AND CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
OR NARROW POPS. LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND WET WEEKEND NEXT WEEKEND AT
THIS POINT. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT IT WILL COOL AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SLOWLY SE
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SHRA AND TSRA WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG
BOUNDARY THROUGH PERIOD. MAY SEE MVFR OR LOWER VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS AT TIMES WITH TSRA. SYSTEM WILL PUSH SE BY END OF
PERIOD...WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTHWEST
BEHIND BOUNDARY...BECOMING GUSTY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 202043
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
343 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST IA
INTO SOUTHERN MN...WITH A RIDGE UPSTREAM AND A STRONGER COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS. AS THE LATTER FRONT NEARS IOWA
OVERNIGHT IT WILL SQUEEZE THE PRECEDING RIDGE AND TROUGH INTO A
NEBULOUS WEAK FLOW REGION THAT WILL SINK ACROSS OUR AREA OVERNIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST IA TROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT AS A MODEST LLJ KICKS IN CONCURRENT WITH BROAD BUT WEAK
LIFT PRECEDING A 500 MB SHORTWAVE MOVING OVER THE REGION. DESPITE
THE INCREASE IN COVERAGE RAIN SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED AT ANY GIVEN
TIME...AND HAVE CONTINUED LIKELY POPS BUT HELD OFF ON CATEGORICAL
FOR THIS REASON. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE LIMITED AND SEVERE
WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED. DID INCREASE LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT DUE
TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
SAGGING TROUGH.


.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

A WEAK SURFACE LOW AND BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS IOWA ON
MONDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES EAST THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.  THERE
IS WEAK TO MODEST INSTABILITY AND WEAK SHEAR...ENOUGH TO SEE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY BUT SEVERE
POTENTIAL IS UNIMPRESSIVE. SOUNDINGS SHOW THAT WE LOSE OUR
MOISTURE FAIRLY QUICKLY IN THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SYSTEM. PRECIP
SHOULD END ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE STATE BY 18Z AND LINGER
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH 00Z BUT THUNDER SHOULD BE MORE
ISOLATED AS THE AFTERNOON WEARS ON. HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL OCCUR
WITH THUNDERSTORMS BUT OVERALL WE ARE LOOKING AT BETWEEN A TENTH
AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY MONDAY AND I MAY BE
TOO WARM GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP. WE WILL HAVE SOME
SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE MORNING THEN AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM THE WINDS
TURN WESTERLY BEFORE GOING NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS SHOULD
HIT THEIR MAXES ACROSS THE NORTH BY NOON THEN REMAIN STEADY OR
FALL. ACROSS THE SOUTH THERE WILL BE A COUPLE MORE HOURS FOR TEMPS
TO CLIMB BEFORE FROPA.

THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST MONDAY EVENING WITH CLEARING PROGRESSING
ACROSS THE STATE.  TEMPS WILL BE COOL MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE LOWER TO MID
40S SOUTH.  TUESDAY SHOULD BE A NICE DAY...SUNNY WITH A LIGHT NORTH
WIND AND HIGHS IN THE 60S.  THE UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL BE RESPONSIBLE
FOR THE DECENT DAY TUESDAY WILL SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE DAY
WEDNESDAY.  A DEEPENING LOW WILL DIG A TROUGH ACROSS THE ROCKIES
WITH A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES.  BY
WEDNESDAY THE SURFACE LOW WILL SHIFT INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA/WRN IA.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY AND OVERNIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. MODELS DIVERGE HERE AS THE EURO DIGS MORE OF A
NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE LOW AND PUSHES EVERYTHING EAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

AFTER THAT WE STAY IN A NORTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPS REMAIN COOL INTO
THE WEEKEND. DIFFERENCES IN THE LONG TERM MODELS CONTINUE FOR
NEXT WEEKEND WITH THE GFS DIGGING THIS HUGE TROUGH WEST OF THE
ROCKIES WHILE THE EURO HAS A TROUGH THAT IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG OR
SHARP AND IT SWINGS UP AGAINST A DEPARTING RIDGE IN EASTERN IA/IL.
THE EURO BREAKS OUT PRECIP OVER A BROAD REGION...INCLUDING IOWA
WHILE THE GFS IS MORE NARROW WITH IT/S QPF FORECAST...OWING TO THE
SHARPNESS OF THE TROUGH. AS FOR THE GRIDS...THE ALLBLENDS KEEP
POPS IN AND CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT IS NOT STRONG ENOUGH TO PULL
OR NARROW POPS. LOOKS LIKE A COOL AND WET WEEKEND NEXT WEEKEND AT
THIS POINT. IF THE GFS IS RIGHT IT WILL COOL AND DRIER.

&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA AND
TSRA WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING NEAR A BOUNDARY ACROSS NW
IA...FIRST AFFECTING KMCW/KFOD THEN LATER THE REMAINING TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT UNTIL CLEARING OUT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED AT ANY GIVEN TIME...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND
POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR ONLY WITHIN THE RAIN. THEREFORE...HAVE
ADDRESSED WITH ONLY VCTS IN THE TAFS AS THESE EFFECTS WILL BE
BRIEF AND DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AT THIS RANGE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT BR DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 201741
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1241 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED UP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. MAIN CONCERN IS
WITH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND MAX TEMPERATURES.

UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 20.03Z HOPWRF...20.05Z HRRR...AND 20.00Z
RUNS OF THE NMM/ARW-EAST AS THEY WERE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH SMALL
BATCH OF SHOWERS TO AFFECT NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE EARLY THIS
MORNING HOURS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK LATE IN THE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE STATE AND BETTER
INSTABILITY. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE PUSH SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
THROUGH THE DAY. SOUNDINGS DEPICTING ELEVATED LCL (AROUND 5000-6000
FEET) AND RAIN LOOKS TO HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP DRY
LAYER TO THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE 300-310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE WHERE ENOUGH LIFT
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRESENT. BUT NOT ANTICIPATING THESE SHOWERS
TO PERSIST PAST 12Z AS THEY LOOK TO MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR
FURTHER EAST. AFTER THESE LITTLE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA
THIS MORNING...NOT EXPECTING PRECIP UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONFINED POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST UNTIL 21Z.

LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BETTER INSTABILITY BY 21Z SUNDAY ACROSS
WESTERN TO NORTHERN IOWA AND EXPECTING FRONT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THIS AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.20"
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
STATE...COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS.

WITH THE WAA CONTINUING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...WAS CONFIDENT TO BUMP
MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST...WHICH WAS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SYSTEM TRACKING MORE OR LESS AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WEAKENED
INVERTED TROUGH WITH VERY WEAK SFC IMPULSE DRIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN WI BY 12Z MONDAY. SO FAR...MOISTURE HAS BEEN LACKING BOTH
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS TONIGHT SHOWS
SECONDARY WARM FRONT FROM LOW OVER THE NE/KS BORDER SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TO NORTHERN AR. DEW POINTS POOLING IN THE
50-55F RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT SFC WINDS NOT HELPING
MUCH TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTH. ALOFT AT H850...A THIN RIBBON OF
5C DEW POINTS HAS WORKED NORTH TO MINNEAPOLIS BUT DEEPER MOISTURE
STILL STUCK SOUTH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND
INTO IOWA TONIGHT. H850 MOISTURE CHANNEL HAS BEEN HELD IN CHECK BY
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO OUR EAST. BY TONIGHT THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW WEAK SFC SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF US TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND TUG THE WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDER WILL INCREASE NORTH THIS
EVENING AS THE WEAK SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST. AFTER 06Z TO
12Z THE ENTIRE AREA DRIFTS SOUTHEAST BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST SHOULD
STILL BE MAINLY DRY UNTIL 12Z. THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING
INTO NORTHERN IA BY 00Z TUE FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR
TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD WITH BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND THICK CLOUD COVER. WITH THE MILD START TO THE DAY
MONDAY...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. AS THE
SECONDARY FRONT DROPS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH 12Z TUES WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. TUES
LOOKS PLEASANT WITH SEASONAL READINGS AS NORTHEAST FLOW KEEPS WARM
AIR ADVECTION WELL TO THE WEST. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS INTO WEST LATE IN THE DAY...AND
SHOWERS ARRIVE BY 12Z WED WEST. THROUGH WED...ENHANCED LIFT AS
WARM FRONT AND THETAE ADVECTION RETURN WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL...AND
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THERE AND ISO THUNDER DEVELOPS
SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VIGOROUS WAVE FOR WED/THUR
WITH EXTENSIVE H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY BACK TO
DUTCH HARBOR AK ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. AS MENTIONED IN LAST
NIGHTS AFD...WIND FIELDS ALOFT STILL SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE BY
WED/THU OVER THE PLAINS. SYSTEM SHOULD GEN UP SHOWERS AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISO THUNDER. FOR THE
MOST PART WE REMAIN IN THE COOL SECTOR THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AS
WAVE BUCKLES AND CROSSES THE REGION...CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS
BRIEFLY GET IN WARM SECTOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THUR. BEST
CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SVR WILL OCCUR WED EVE OVER EASTERN NE AND
WESTERN HALF OF IOWA ...WEAKENING SLOWLY AS IT CROSSES THE REGION
WED NIGHT AND REINTENSIFYING LATE THU MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM SECTOR MOVES EAST INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST IOWA.
POTENTIAL FOR EVENING AND LATE NIGHT SVR WED NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
THUR IS INCREASING WITH EURO SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN. GFS APPEARS
FASTER AT THIS POINT. WILL NEED TO WATCH PROGRESSION OF WAVE FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL. THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT LINING UP VERY WELL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OVER OUR AREA...ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL WITH
SHEAR/CAPE TO BE WEARY OF OVERNIGHT SUSTAINED SVR CONVECTION LATE
WED NIGHT. TEMPS THURS WILL STILL BE MILD BUT ON THE DOWNSWING
LATE AS ANOTHER COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. AIRMASS BEHIND THAT BOUNDARY MODERATES A BIT AS IT
ARRIVES FRIDAY...LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH ENERGY EAST INTO THE WESTERN STATES
WHICH QUICKLY IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE IN THE PLAINS ALREADY ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEXT WEEKEND IS BEGINNING TO LOOK WET ONCE
AGAIN. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW...WITH EXTENSIVE H500 WAVE
TRAIN HEADING OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THIS AFTERNOON. SHRA AND
TSRA WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS EVENING NEAR A BOUNDARY ACROSS NW
IA...FIRST AFFECTING KMCW/KFOD THEN LATER THE REMAINING TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT UNTIL CLEARING OUT AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED TO BE
SCATTERED AT ANY GIVEN TIME...WITH PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AND
POCKETS OF MVFR/IFR ONLY WITHIN THE RAIN. THEREFORE...HAVE
ADDRESSED WITH ONLY VCTS IN THE TAFS AS THESE EFFECTS WILL BE
BRIEF AND DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AT THIS RANGE. WE SHOULD SEE SOME
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT BR DEVELOPMENT LATE TONIGHT AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE BOUNDARY AS IT SLOWLY ADVANCES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 201205
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
705 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED UP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. MAIN CONCERN IS
WITH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND MAX TEMPERATURES.

UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 20.03Z HOPWRF...20.05Z HRRR...AND 20.00Z
RUNS OF THE NMM/ARW-EAST AS THEY WERE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH SMALL
BATCH OF SHOWERS TO AFFECT NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE EARLY THIS
MORNING HOURS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK LATE IN THE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE STATE AND BETTER
INSTABILITY. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE PUSH SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
THROUGH THE DAY. SOUNDINGS DEPICTING ELEVATED LCL (AROUND 5000-6000
FEET) AND RAIN LOOKS TO HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP DRY
LAYER TO THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE 300-310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE WHERE ENOUGH LIFT
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRESENT. BUT NOT ANTICIPATING THESE SHOWERS
TO PERSIST PAST 12Z AS THEY LOOK TO MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR
FURTHER EAST. AFTER THESE LITTLE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA
THIS MORNING...NOT EXPECTING PRECIP UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONFINED POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST UNTIL 21Z.

LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BETTER INSTABILITY BY 21Z SUNDAY ACROSS
WESTERN TO NORTHERN IOWA AND EXPECTING FRONT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THIS AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.20"
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
STATE...COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS.

WITH THE WAA CONTINUING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...WAS CONFIDENT TO BUMP
MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST...WHICH WAS NEAR
OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SYSTEM TRACKING MORE OR LESS AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WEAKENED
INVERTED TROUGH WITH VERY WEAK SFC IMPULSE DRIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN WI BY 12Z MONDAY. SO FAR...MOISTURE HAS BEEN LACKING BOTH
AT THE SFC AND ALOFT. SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS TONIGHT SHOWS
SECONDARY WARM FRONT FROM LOW OVER THE NE/KS BORDER SOUTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS TO NORTHERN AR. DEW POINTS POOLING IN THE
50-55F RANGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT SFC WINDS NOT HELPING
MUCH TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE NORTH. ALOFT AT H850...A THIN RIBBON OF
5C DEW POINTS HAS WORKED NORTH TO MINNEAPOLIS BUT DEEPER MOISTURE
STILL STUCK SOUTH IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND
INTO IOWA TONIGHT. H850 MOISTURE CHANNEL HAS BEEN HELD IN CHECK BY
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO OUR EAST. BY TONIGHT THIS FEATURE
WILL DRIFT EAST AND ALLOW WEAK SFC SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF US TO MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION AND TUG THE WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDER WILL INCREASE NORTH THIS
EVENING AS THE WEAK SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST. AFTER 06Z TO
12Z THE ENTIRE AREA DRIFTS SOUTHEAST BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST SHOULD
STILL BE MAINLY DRY UNTIL 12Z. THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY THE SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING
INTO NORTHERN IA BY 00Z TUE FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR
TUESDAY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD WITH BOUNDARY TO THE
NORTH AND THICK CLOUD COVER. WITH THE MILD START TO THE DAY
MONDAY...HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. AS THE
SECONDARY FRONT DROPS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO
THE REGION THROUGH 12Z TUES WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. TUES
LOOKS PLEASANT WITH SEASONAL READINGS AS NORTHEAST FLOW KEEPS WARM
AIR ADVECTION WELL TO THE WEST. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
NORTHEAST TO THE MID 60S SOUTH. NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE OVER THE
ROCKIES WILL SPREAD SOME CLOUDS INTO WEST LATE IN THE DAY...AND
SHOWERS ARRIVE BY 12Z WED WEST. THROUGH WED...ENHANCED LIFT AS
WARM FRONT AND THETAE ADVECTION RETURN WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL...AND
MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA AS SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THERE AND ISO THUNDER DEVELOPS
SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE VIGOROUS WAVE FOR WED/THUR
WITH EXTENSIVE H500 LONGWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY BACK TO
DUTCH HARBOR AK ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. AS MENTIONED IN LAST
NIGHTS AFD...WIND FIELDS ALOFT STILL SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE BY
WED/THU OVER THE PLAINS. SYSTEM SHOULD GEN UP SHOWERS AS WARM AIR
ADVECTION INCREASES WED WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISO THUNDER. FOR THE
MOST PART WE REMAIN IN THE COOL SECTOR THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AS
WAVE BUCKLES AND CROSSES THE REGION...CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS
BRIEFLY GET IN WARM SECTOR LATE WED NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THUR. BEST
CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SVR WILL OCCUR WED EVE OVER EASTERN NE AND
WESTERN HALF OF IOWA ...WEAKENING SLOWLY AS IT CROSSES THE REGION
WED NIGHT AND REINTENSIFYING LATE THU MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM SECTOR MOVES EAST INTO EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST IOWA.
POTENTIAL FOR EVENING AND LATE NIGHT SVR WED NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
THUR IS INCREASING WITH EURO SLOWING THE SYSTEM DOWN. GFS APPEARS
FASTER AT THIS POINT. WILL NEED TO WATCH PROGRESSION OF WAVE FOR
SEVERE POTENTIAL. THOUGH WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT LINING UP VERY WELL
FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OVER OUR AREA...ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL WITH
SHEAR/CAPE TO BE WEARY OF OVERNIGHT SUSTAINED SVR CONVECTION LATE
WED NIGHT. TEMPS THURS WILL STILL BE MILD BUT ON THE DOWNSWING
LATE AS ANOTHER COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY
MORNING. AIRMASS BEHIND THAT BOUNDARY MODERATES A BIT AS IT
ARRIVES FRIDAY...LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.
LONG WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH ENERGY EAST INTO THE WESTERN STATES
WHICH QUICKLY IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE IN THE PLAINS ALREADY ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEXT WEEKEND IS BEGINNING TO LOOK WET ONCE
AGAIN. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW...WITH EXTENSIVE H500 WAVE
TRAIN HEADING OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z
ISSUED AT 704 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

ONGOING LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND
AFFECT MCW/ALO AND POSSIBLY FOD THROUGH 15Z THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS. THE MAIN SHORTWAVE WILL
FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT AND SHOULD INCREASE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE FRONT STALLED ACROSS
NORTHWEST IOWA. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VIS/CIGS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT
OTM SINCE PRECIP WILL NOT REACH SOUTHEAST IOWA UNTIL EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH EXTENDED PERIOD OF PRECIP AT ANY TAF
SITE...BUT EVEN LOWER CONFIDENCE IS TRYING TO TIME THE PERIODIC
PRECIP TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 200851
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
351 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLED UP ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA WILL SLOWLY
TRANSITION SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. MAIN CONCERN IS
WITH PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT AND MAX TEMPERATURES.

UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE 20.03Z HOPWRF...20.05Z HRRR...AND 20.00Z
RUNS OF THE NMM/ARW-EAST AS THEY WERE IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH SMALL
BATCH OF SHOWERS TO AFFECT NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE EARLY THIS
MORNING HOURS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK LATE IN THE MORNING
INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT WITH DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE STATE AND BETTER
INSTABILITY. STRONG MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE PUSH SURFACE DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S
THROUGH THE DAY. SOUNDINGS DEPICTING ELEVATED LCL (AROUND 5000-6000
FEET) AND RAIN LOOKS TO HAVE TO FIGHT THROUGH A FAIRLY DEEP DRY
LAYER TO THE SURFACE THIS MORNING. THERE ARE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE 300-310K ISENTROPIC SURFACE WHERE ENOUGH LIFT
AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT PRESENT. BUT NOT ANTICIPATING THESE SHOWERS TO
PERSIST PAST 12Z AS THEY LOOK TO MOVE INTO MORE STABLE AIR FURTHER
EAST. AFTER THESE LITTLE SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA THIS
MORNING...NOT EXPECTING PRECIP UNTIL LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONFINED
POPS TO THE NORTH AND WEST UNTIL 21Z.

LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON...BETTER INSTABILITY BY 21Z SUNDAY ACROSS
WESTERN TO NORTHERN IOWA AND EXPECTING FRONT TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER THIS AREA. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.20"
THIS AFTERNOON AND WITH THE DEEPER MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
STATE...COULD SEE A FEW ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS.

WITH THE WAA CONTINUING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES REMAINED
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE...WAS CONFIDENT TO BUMP
MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO ACROSS THE FORECAST...WHICH WAS NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN MOS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SYSTEM TRACKING MORE OR LESS AS EXPECTED TONIGHT...AS WEAKENED
INVERTED TROUGH WITH VERY WEAK SFC IMPULSE DRIFTING NORTHEAST INTO
WESTERN WI BY 12Z MONDAY. SO FAR...MOISTURE HAS BEEN LACKING BOTH AT
THE SFC AND ALOFT. SUBJECTIVE SFC ANALYSIS TONIGHT SHOWS SECONDARY
WARM FRONT FROM LOW OVER THE NE/KS BORDER SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KS TO NORTHERN AR. DEW POINTS POOLING IN THE 50-55F RANGE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS BUT SFC WINDS NOT HELPING MUCH TO TRANSPORT MOISTURE
NORTH. ALOFT AT H850...A THIN RIBBON OF 5C DEW POINTS HAS WORKED
NORTH TO MINNEAPOLIS BUT DEEPER MOISTURE STILL STUCK SOUTH IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THIS SHOULD EXPAND INTO IOWA TONIGHT. H850
MOISTURE CHANNEL HAS BEEN HELD IN CHECK BY EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT TO OUR EAST. BY TONIGHT THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT EAST AND
ALLOW WEAK SFC SYSTEM SOUTHWEST OF US TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
AND TUG THE WEAK BOUNDARY SOUTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND SCT THUNDER WILL INCREASE NORTH THIS EVENING AS THE
WEAK SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST. AFTER 06Z TO 12Z THE ENTIRE
AREA DRIFTS SOUTHEAST BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST SHOULD STILL BE MAINLY
DRY UNTIL 12Z. THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF
THE REGION WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPPING INTO NORTHERN IA
BY 00Z TUE FOLLOWED BY CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE FOR TUESDAY. LOWS
TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RATHER MILD WITH BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH AND
THICK CLOUD COVER. WITH THE MILD START TO THE DAY MONDAY...HIGHS
SHOULD REACH THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. AS THE SECONDARY FRONT
DROPS SOUTH MONDAY NIGHT...COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE REGION
THROUGH 12Z TUES WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S. TUES LOOKS PLEASANT
WITH SEASONAL READINGS AS NORTHEAST FLOW KEEPS WARM AIR ADVECTION
WELL TO THE WEST. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST TO THE
MID 60S SOUTH. NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SPREAD
SOME CLOUDS INTO WEST LATE IN THE DAY...AND SHOWERS ARRIVE BY 12Z
WED WEST. THROUGH WED...ENHANCED LIFT AS WARM FRONT AND THETAE
ADVECTION RETURN WILL KEEP TEMPS COOL...AND MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH
60 ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS SHOWERS WILL
OCCUR THERE AND ISO THUNDER DEVELOPS SOUTHWEST. MODELS CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE VIGOROUS WAVE FOR WED/THUR WITH EXTENSIVE H500 LONGWAVE
TROUGH EXTENDING ALL THE WAY BACK TO DUTCH HARBOR AK ALONG THE
ALEUTIAN CHAIN. AS MENTIONED IN LAST NIGHTS AFD...WIND FIELDS
ALOFT STILL SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE BY WED/THU OVER THE PLAINS. SYSTEM
SHOULD GEN UP SHOWERS AS WARM AIR ADVECTION INCREASES WED WITH
POTENTIAL FOR ISO THUNDER. FOR THE MOST PART WE REMAIN IN THE COOL
SECTOR THROUGH WED AFTERNOON. AS WAVE BUCKLES AND CROSSES THE
REGION...CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS BRIEFLY GET IN WARM SECTOR LATE WED
NIGHT INTO MIDDAY THUR. BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SVR WILL OCCUR
WED EVE OVER EASTERN NE AND WESTERN HALF OF IOWA ...WEAKENING
SLOWLY AS IT CROSSES THE REGION WED NIGHT AND REINTENSIFYING LATE
THU MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM SECTOR MOVES EAST INTO
EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST IOWA. POTENTIAL FOR EVENING AND LATE NIGHT
SVR WED NIGHT/EARLY MORNING THUR IS INCREASING WITH EURO SLOWING
THE SYSTEM DOWN. GFS APPEARS FASTER AT THIS POINT. WILL NEED TO
WATCH PROGRESSION OF WAVE FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL. THOUGH WINDS ALOFT
ARE NOT LINING UP VERY WELL FOR A SIGNIFICANT EVENT OVER OUR
AREA...ENOUGH OF A SIGNAL WITH SHEAR/CAPE TO BE WEARY OF OVERNIGHT
SUSTAINED SVR CONVECTION LATE WED NIGHT. TEMPS THURS WILL STILL BE
MILD BUT ON THE DOWNSWING LATE AS ANOTHER COOL FRONT DROPS SOUTH
INTO THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING. AIRMASS BEHIND THAT BOUNDARY
MODERATES A BIT AS IT ARRIVES FRIDAY...LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA IN
THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. LONG WAVE CONTINUES TO PUSH ENERGY EAST INTO
THE WESTERN STATES WHICH QUICKLY IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE IN THE
PLAINS ALREADY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NEXT WEEKEND IS BEGINNING
TO LOOK WET ONCE AGAIN. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE RIGHT NOW...WITH
EXTENSIVE H500 WAVE TRAIN HEADING OUR WAY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/06Z
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SE ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
BOUNDARY...WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN SITES KFOD/KMCW SEEING
PRECIPITATION FIRST BEFORE SHIFTING TO OTHER SITES BY 00Z...WITH
KOTM LAST. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING AND LOCATION. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR...THOUGH
COULD SEE MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH
SHRA.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 200446
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1146 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND A
SOMEWHAT DEEP AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALONG THE US CANADA
BORDER...CENTRAL IOWA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR
THE SHORT TERM. MOST IMPORTANT SHORT TERM ISSUE IS THE EVER SLOWING
BOUNDARY/WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NE NEBRASKA INTO
FAR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SERVED TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY AND INTRODUCTION OF
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS TO THIS SYSTEM. IT SEEMS THAT WITH EVERY
MODEL RUN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OF THIS
BOUNDARY HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND DRIER. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUSHED
BOUNDARY ARRIVAL IN OUR CWA BACK TO AROUND THE 09Z TIME PERIOD. NOT
A LOT OF DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SYSTEM UNTIL A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATES OFF THE ROCKIES AND IS INTRODUCED TO THE BOUNDARY AROUND
12Z SUNDAY. AROUND THIS TIME...THERE SHOULD BE A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF
SHEAR TO HELP GENERATE AND SUSTAIN SOME CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE
DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MOST MODEL RUNS INITIALIZING WAY TOO MOIST AND
COOL AT 18Z. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. RAP/RUC INITIALIZING THE BEST...SO
WILL LEAN ON THEM FOR TEMP TRENDS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY RELAX INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING THE WINDS DURING SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE
DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO NW IA TODAY WILL WEAKEN INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SPLITS THE AREA WELL TO THE NORTH AND WELL TO THE SOUTH.
PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN DURING THIS TIME WITH SURGES OF
THETA-E ADVECTION PASSING OVERHEAD AND WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF TO THIRD ON SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY SETTLING
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL IOWA WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS DOES MAINTAIN THROUGH THAT TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LOW WITH MUCAPES AT 500 J/KG OR LESS AND LAPSE
RATES NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS RESULTING IN
SKINNY CAPES AND LOW POTENTIAL FOR GOOD VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS AND
UPDRAFTS. DRY AIR SURGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF ON
MONDAY AS THE NEXT BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. POSSIBLE FOR A
DIURNALLY DRIVEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THAT COULD YIELD SOME SMALL HAIL PRODUCERS.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TUESDAY AND WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK BUT STILL PLEASANT. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SET UP WOULD FAVOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A DRY LINE FROM
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTH TO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.
THIS WOULD LEAVE CENTRAL IOWA IN THE MORE FAVORABLE REGION FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN POSSIBLE MCS ROLLING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PENDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITION...LIKELY REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH MAY CLIP THE FAR EAST
FORECAST AREA. MORE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THURSDAY WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WEST AND HOW DEEP THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...20/06Z
ISSUED AT 1142 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PUSH SE ACROSS CENTRAL
IOWA THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
BOUNDARY...WITH WESTERN AND NORTHERN SITES KFOD/KMCW SEEING
PRECIPITATION FIRST BEFORE SHIFTING TO OTHER SITES BY 00Z...WITH
KOTM LAST. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VCTS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN
TIMING AND LOCATION. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR...THOUGH
COULD SEE MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH
SHRA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 192334
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
634 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND A
SOMEWHAT DEEP AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALONG THE US CANADA
BORDER...CENTRAL IOWA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR
THE SHORT TERM. MOST IMPORTANT SHORT TERM ISSUE IS THE EVER SLOWING
BOUNDARY/WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NE NEBRASKA INTO
FAR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SERVED TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY AND INTRODUCTION OF
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS TO THIS SYSTEM. IT SEEMS THAT WITH EVERY
MODEL RUN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OF THIS
BOUNDARY HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND DRIER. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUSHED
BOUNDARY ARRIVAL IN OUR CWA BACK TO AROUND THE 09Z TIME PERIOD. NOT
A LOT OF DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SYSTEM UNTIL A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATES OFF THE ROCKIES AND IS INTRODUCED TO THE BOUNDARY AROUND
12Z SUNDAY. AROUND THIS TIME...THERE SHOULD BE A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF
SHEAR TO HELP GENERATE AND SUSTAIN SOME CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE
DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MOST MODEL RUNS INITIALIZING WAY TOO MOIST AND
COOL AT 18Z. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. RAP/RUC INITIALIZING THE BEST...SO
WILL LEAN ON THEM FOR TEMP TRENDS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY RELAX INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING THE WINDS DURING SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE
DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO NW IA TODAY WILL WEAKEN INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SPLITS THE AREA WELL TO THE NORTH AND WELL TO THE SOUTH.
PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN DURING THIS TIME WITH SURGES OF
THETA-E ADVECTION PASSING OVERHEAD AND WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF TO THIRD ON SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY SETTLING
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL IOWA WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS DOES MAINTAIN THROUGH THAT TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LOW WITH MUCAPES AT 500 J/KG OR LESS AND LAPSE
RATES NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS RESULTING IN
SKINNY CAPES AND LOW POTENTIAL FOR GOOD VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS AND
UPDRAFTS. DRY AIR SURGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF ON
MONDAY AS THE NEXT BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. POSSIBLE FOR A
DIURNALLY DRIVEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THAT COULD YIELD SOME SMALL HAIL PRODUCERS.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TUESDAY AND WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK BUT STILL PLEASANT. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SET UP WOULD FAVOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A DRY LINE FROM
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTH TO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.
THIS WOULD LEAVE CENTRAL IOWA IN THE MORE FAVORABLE REGION FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN POSSIBLE MCS ROLLING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PENDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITION...LIKELY REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH MAY CLIP THE FAR EAST
FORECAST AREA. MORE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THURSDAY WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WEST AND HOW DEEP THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH SE ACROSS SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THIS WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE WEST NEAR BOUNDARY. IN
ADDITION...SHRA AND TSRA ARE POSSIBLE NEAR BOUNDARY...WITH WESTERN
AND NORTHERN SITES KFOD/KMCW SEEING PRECIPITATION FIRST BEFORE
SHIFTING TO OTHER SITES. HAVE LEFT TSRA MENTION OUT FOR
NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION...THOUGH IS
POSSIBLE AT SITES. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR...THOUGH COULD
SEE MVFR OR IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT TIMES WITH SHRA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 192054
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OHIO VALLEY REGION AND A
SOMEWHAT DEEP AND NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALONG THE US CANADA
BORDER...CENTRAL IOWA WILL BE SANDWICHED IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW FOR
THE SHORT TERM. MOST IMPORTANT SHORT TERM ISSUE IS THE EVER SLOWING
BOUNDARY/WEAK COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NE NEBRASKA INTO
FAR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SERVED TO SLOW THE PROGRESSION OF THE BOUNDARY AND INTRODUCTION OF
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS TO THIS SYSTEM. IT SEEMS THAT WITH EVERY
MODEL RUN THE PAST FEW DAYS...THE PROGRESSION/EVOLUTION OF THIS
BOUNDARY HAS TRENDED SLOWER AND DRIER. AS A RESULT...HAVE PUSHED
BOUNDARY ARRIVAL IN OUR CWA BACK TO AROUND THE 09Z TIME PERIOD. NOT
A LOT OF DYNAMICS TO SUPPORT SYSTEM UNTIL A WEAK SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATES OFF THE ROCKIES AND IS INTRODUCED TO THE BOUNDARY AROUND
12Z SUNDAY. AROUND THIS TIME...THERE SHOULD BE A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT OF
SHEAR TO HELP GENERATE AND SUSTAIN SOME CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE
DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM DISCUSSION.

FOR TEMPERATURES...MOST MODEL RUNS INITIALIZING WAY TOO MOIST AND
COOL AT 18Z. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL
ABOVE NORMAL INTO THE OVERNIGHT. RAP/RUC INITIALIZING THE BEST...SO
WILL LEAN ON THEM FOR TEMP TRENDS INTO SUNDAY MORNING. PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO GRADUALLY RELAX INTO SUNDAY MORNING WHICH SHOULD AID IN
DECREASING THE WINDS DURING SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 354 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH MONDAY WILL BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE
DURING THE EARLY PORTION OF THE PERIOD. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
MOVING INTO NW IA TODAY WILL WEAKEN INTO SUNDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL
ENERGY SPLITS THE AREA WELL TO THE NORTH AND WELL TO THE SOUTH.
PROFILES WILL CONTINUE TO MOISTEN DURING THIS TIME WITH SURGES OF
THETA-E ADVECTION PASSING OVERHEAD AND WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF TO THIRD ON SUNDAY THEN GRADUALLY SETTLING
SOUTH SUNDAY NIGHT. THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION OVER
CENTRAL IOWA WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT THOUGH SOME DRY AIR IN THE LOWER
LEVELS DOES MAINTAIN THROUGH THAT TIME. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE LOW WITH MUCAPES AT 500 J/KG OR LESS AND LAPSE
RATES NEAR MOIST ADIABATIC IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS RESULTING IN
SKINNY CAPES AND LOW POTENTIAL FOR GOOD VERTICAL ACCELERATIONS AND
UPDRAFTS. DRY AIR SURGES SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST HALF ON
MONDAY AS THE NEXT BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH. POSSIBLE FOR A
DIURNALLY DRIVEN LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THAT COULD YIELD SOME SMALL HAIL PRODUCERS.

HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TUESDAY AND WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE
WEEK BUT STILL PLEASANT. UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN DAKOTAS
AND NEBRASKA ON WEDNESDAY. THE CURRENT SET UP WOULD FAVOR STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP IN THE VICINITY OF A DRY LINE FROM
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND SOUTH TO THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES.
THIS WOULD LEAVE CENTRAL IOWA IN THE MORE FAVORABLE REGION FOR
ELEVATED CONVECTION EARLY WEDNESDAY THEN POSSIBLE MCS ROLLING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PENDING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
POSITION...LIKELY REDEVELOPMENT OF STORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHICH MAY CLIP THE FAR EAST
FORECAST AREA. MORE UNCERTAINTY BEYOND THURSDAY WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER RIDGE WEST AND HOW DEEP THE DEPARTING
UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE GREAT LAKES.

&&

.AVIATION...19/18Z
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

KEPT VFR CONDITIONS FOR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. MAY NEED TO
REEVALUATE AND LOWER CEILINGS FOR KMCW...KFOD...AND KALO AS
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
THUNDER FOR ANY TAF SITES...BUT THAT TREND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS WELL.

STRONG WINDS THROUGH 01Z SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTH. BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...KOTENBERG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 191735
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1235 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WAS FOCUSED ON WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...
AND POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST IOWA. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY PULLED BACK ON RAIN CHANCES PREVIOUS RUNS AND LEANED
TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/GFS FOR POPS TODAY. WRT TO TEMPS...LEANED
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE SREF/NAM FOR MAX TEMPS.

ONGOING WAA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COMBINATION OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO A
WINDY DAY. WINDS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA ATTM...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING TO
900MB TO 850MB SEEMS REASONABLE. WINDS ATOP THE MIX LAYER RANGE
AROUND 30-35 KNOTS. REGARDLESS...IT WILL WARM AND WINDY WITH HIGHS
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA RISING WELL INTO THE 70S. TWEAK MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH WARM LOWS AND STRONG WAA.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST IOWA AND MORE LIKELY IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PULL BACK
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF POPS FOR TODAY...AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WE
WILL SEE ANY PRECIP IN THE STATE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
IN NORTHERN IOWA SHOW DEEP DRY LAYER FROM SURFACE TO 800MB AND
REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PLUS THERE IS
VERY LITTLE ELEVATED OR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE ADEQUATE FOR
CONVECTION...THERE IS NO TRIGGER MECHANISM AVAILABLE UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. FIRST CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF PRECIP AND COVERAGE WITH
APPROACHING PLAINS TROUGH.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TONIGHT CUTS ACROSS
ONTARIO SOUTHWEST THROUGH ILLINOIS SOUTH TO SOUTH TX. WEAK MOISTURE
ADV AT H850 BEGINNING TO CREEP NORTH ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AT
THE SFC...DEW POINTS TO 50F UP TO WICHITA FALLS WITH MID 40S ALONG
SOUTHERN PLAINS WARM FRONT TO WESTERN KS. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
PRECIP/COVERAGE AND FORCING/QPF AS WELL. INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH LESS INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE SUNDAY. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE REDUCED TO ISO
THUNDER SAT NIGHT AND SCT THUNDER SUNDAY GRADUALLY GOING GENERAL
THUNDER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. GEM/EURO ARE SLOWER AND HAVE LESS MOISTURE
INPUT/OUTPUT THAN GFS. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR GFS TO BE TOO FAST AND
THOUGH MOISTURE WILL SURELY GET HERE...HAVE SLOWED ARRIVAL AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSION WHILE KEEPING EXPECTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS...QUITE A SPREAD OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
EASTER SUNDAY WITH COOLER/WETTER WEATHER NORTH AND PARTLY SUNNY AND
MILDER WEATHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF DAY AND EVENING. NORTHWEST
SHOULD SEE BEST LIFT NEARER THE UPPER LEVEL/SFC TROUGH AXIS WITH
THE ENTIRE TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHEN POP INCREASES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECTED
RAINFALL FROM THE EURO/GEM THROUGH MON LOOKS GREATEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...OVER AREAS WHICH SAW THE LEAST AMOUNT LAST WEEKEND
WHILE LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST WITH A GENERAL RANGE FROM
.25 TO .75 WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. GFS APPEARS TO BE HAVING
SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH POCKETS OF 1-2 INCH RAINS
NEAR A CLOSED SFC LOW AND LARGE STRIPE OF TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES
WHICH DONT LOOK LIKELY...WHILE THE GEM/EURO SHOW MOSTLY A WEAKER
TROUGH ALIGNMENT SW/NE ORIENTATION. PREFER THE LATTER...WEAKER
FORCING SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDER PRIOR TO LIFTING OUT. RELATIVELY
QUIET WX RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION. DESPITE THE COOLER AIRMASS...H850 TEMPS WILL STILL
REACH 2C NORTHEAST TO 5-6C WEST/SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS NEAR 60 NORTHEAST AND IN THE MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL RETURN TO ACTIVE WEATHER AS A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ENTERING THE PACNW MOVES EAST LATE
TUES NIGHT AND ENTERS THE PLAINS BY 00Z THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...H500 RIDGING ALOFT WILL INCREASE THICKNESS/H850 TEMPS
WITH A ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CROSSING THE REGION BY WED
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR
TEMPS WED DUE TO POSSIBLE OVC/SCT THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S DEPENDING
ON THE COVERAGE. LITTLE CHANCE FOR SVR INITIALLY...BUT AS THE MAIN
WAVE ARRIVES WED NIGHT...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS FROM THE SFC
THROUGH H300 MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST
THURSDAY...IT OCCLUDES FURTHER AND FORCES THE BEST INSTABILITY
EAST INTO ILLINOIS BY 00Z FRIDAY...KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ORGANIZED SVR WX MAINLY EAST OF THE REGION. ANY SLOWER EVOLUTION
AND DEPARTURE...HOWEVER...WOULD PLACE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS BACK IN IOWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELDS THROUGH
THE COLUMN. COOLER AIR REGIONWIDE AND LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE NORTH HALF WITH A BRISK WNW WIND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY RESULTING IN HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MODELS DIVERGE ON
SOLUTIONS. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MOISTURE RETURN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THE EURO IS SPINNING UP ANOTHER LOW SATURDAY OVER THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION THUNDER BY
00Z SUNDAY OVER OUR AREA. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRIER
SOLUTION ON SATURDAY UNTIL SOME CONFIRMATION OF TRENDS IS
APPARENT. SEEMS MORE REASONABLE THAT SOME SEPARATION WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN FRIDAYS LINGERING OCCLUDED LOW AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...19/18Z
ISSUED AT 1230 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

KEPT VFR CONDITIONS FOR TAF FORECAST PERIOD. MAY NEED TO
REEVALUATE AND LOWER CEILINGS FOR KMCW...KFOD...AND KALO AS
BOUNDARY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY
MORNING. CONFIDENCE THIS FAR OUT NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION
THUNDER FOR ANY TAF SITES...BUT THAT TREND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS WELL.

STRONG WINDS THROUGH 01Z SUNDAY FROM THE SOUTH. BOUNDARY
APPROACHING FROM NORTHWEST WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS WILL LOWER
SIGNIFICANTLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...KOTENBERG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 191139
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
639 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WAS FOCUSED ON WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...
AND POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST IOWA. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY PULLED BACK ON RAIN CHANCES PREVIOUS RUNS AND LEANED
TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/GFS FOR POPS TODAY. WRT TO TEMPS...LEANED
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE SREF/NAM FOR MAX TEMPS.

ONGOING WAA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COMBINATION OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO A
WINDY DAY. WINDS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA ATTM...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING TO
900MB TO 850MB SEEMS REASONABLE. WINDS ATOP THE MIX LAYER RANGE
AROUND 30-35 KNOTS. REGARDLESS...IT WILL WARM AND WINDY WITH HIGHS
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA RISING WELL INTO THE 70S. TWEAK MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH WARM LOWS AND STRONG WAA.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST IOWA AND MORE LIKELY IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PULL BACK
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF POPS FOR TODAY...AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WE
WILL SEE ANY PRECIP IN THE STATE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
IN NORTHERN IOWA SHOW DEEP DRY LAYER FROM SURFACE TO 800MB AND
REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PLUS THERE IS
VERY LITTLE ELEVATED OR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE ADEQUATE FOR
CONVECTION...THERE IS NO TRIGGER MECHANISM AVAILABLE UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. FIRST CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF PRECIP AND COVERAGE WITH
APPROACHING PLAINS TROUGH.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TONIGHT CUTS ACROSS
ONTARIO SOUTHWEST THROUGH ILLINOIS SOUTH TO SOUTH TX. WEAK MOISTURE
ADV AT H850 BEGINNING TO CREEP NORTH ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AT
THE SFC...DEW POINTS TO 50F UP TO WICHITA FALLS WITH MID 40S ALONG
SOUTHERN PLAINS WARM FRONT TO WESTERN KS. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
PRECIP/COVERAGE AND FORCING/QPF AS WELL. INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH LESS INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE SUNDAY. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE REDUCED TO ISO
THUNDER SAT NIGHT AND SCT THUNDER SUNDAY GRADUALLY GOING GENERAL
THUNDER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. GEM/EURO ARE SLOWER AND HAVE LESS MOISTURE
INPUT/OUTPUT THAN GFS. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR GFS TO BE TOO FAST AND
THOUGH MOISTURE WILL SURELY GET HERE...HAVE SLOWED ARRIVAL AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSION WHILE KEEPING EXPECTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS...QUITE A SPREAD OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
EASTER SUNDAY WITH COOLER/WETTER WEATHER NORTH AND PARTLY SUNNY AND
MILDER WEATHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF DAY AND EVENING. NORTHWEST
SHOULD SEE BEST LIFT NEARER THE UPPER LEVEL/SFC TROUGH AXIS WITH
THE ENTIRE TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHEN POP INCREASES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECTED
RAINFALL FROM THE EURO/GEM THROUGH MON LOOKS GREATEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...OVER AREAS WHICH SAW THE LEAST AMOUNT LAST WEEKEND
WHILE LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST WITH A GENERAL RANGE FROM
.25 TO .75 WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. GFS APPEARS TO BE HAVING
SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH POCKETS OF 1-2 INCH RAINS
NEAR A CLOSED SFC LOW AND LARGE STRIPE OF TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES
WHICH DONT LOOK LIKELY...WHILE THE GEM/EURO SHOW MOSTLY A WEAKER
TROUGH ALIGNMENT SW/NE ORIENTATION. PREFER THE LATTER...WEAKER
FORCING SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDER PRIOR TO LIFTING OUT. RELATIVELY
QUIET WX RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION. DESPITE THE COOLER AIRMASS...H850 TEMPS WILL STILL
REACH 2C NORTHEAST TO 5-6C WEST/SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS NEAR 60 NORTHEAST AND IN THE MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL RETURN TO ACTIVE WEATHER AS A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ENTERING THE PACNW MOVES EAST LATE
TUES NIGHT AND ENTERS THE PLAINS BY 00Z THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...H500 RIDGING ALOFT WILL INCREASE THICKNESS/H850 TEMPS
WITH A ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CROSSING THE REGION BY WED
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR
TEMPS WED DUE TO POSSIBLE OVC/SCT THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S DEPENDING
ON THE COVERAGE. LITTLE CHANCE FOR SVR INITIALLY...BUT AS THE MAIN
WAVE ARRIVES WED NIGHT...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS FROM THE SFC
THROUGH H300 MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST
THURSDAY...IT OCCLUDES FURTHER AND FORCES THE BEST INSTABILITY
EAST INTO ILLINOIS BY 00Z FRIDAY...KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ORGANIZED SVR WX MAINLY EAST OF THE REGION. ANY SLOWER EVOLUTION
AND DEPARTURE...HOWEVER...WOULD PLACE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS BACK IN IOWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELDS THROUGH
THE COLUMN. COOLER AIR REGIONWIDE AND LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE NORTH HALF WITH A BRISK WNW WIND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY RESULTING IN HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MODELS DIVERGE ON
SOLUTIONS. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MOISTURE RETURN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THE EURO IS SPINNING UP ANOTHER LOW SATURDAY OVER THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION THUNDER BY
00Z SUNDAY OVER OUR AREA. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRIER
SOLUTION ON SATURDAY UNTIL SOME CONFIRMATION OF TRENDS IS
APPARENT. SEEMS MORE REASONABLE THAT SOME SEPARATION WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN FRIDAYS LINGERING OCCLUDED LOW AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...19/12Z
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY AS STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DEEP MIXING DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. INCREASED WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY TAF
SITE WITH MENTION OF ANY PRECIP IS FOD AT HAD LOW CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION ELSEWHERE DUE TO MODELS CONTINUALLY DELAYING SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 190833
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN TODAY WAS FOCUSED ON WINDS AND TEMPERATURES...
AND POPS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHWEST IOWA. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY PULLED BACK ON RAIN CHANCES PREVIOUS RUNS AND LEANED
TOWARD THE DRIER NAM/GFS FOR POPS TODAY. WRT TO TEMPS...LEANED
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE SREF/NAM FOR MAX TEMPS.

ONGOING WAA WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS THE
COMBINATION OF PRESSURE GRADIENT AND DEEP MIXING WILL LEAD TO A
WINDY DAY. WINDS REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA ATTM...BUT WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME GUSTS TO 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS MIXING TO
900MB TO 850MB SEEMS REASONABLE. WINDS ATOP THE MIX LAYER RANGE
AROUND 30-35 KNOTS. REGARDLESS...IT WILL WARM AND WINDY WITH HIGHS
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA RISING WELL INTO THE 70S. TWEAK MAX
TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO WITH WARM LOWS AND STRONG WAA.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS ACROSS FAR NORTHWEST IOWA AND MORE LIKELY IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO PULL BACK
TIMING AND COVERAGE OF POPS FOR TODAY...AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WE
WILL SEE ANY PRECIP IN THE STATE UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. BUFR SOUNDINGS
IN NORTHERN IOWA SHOW DEEP DRY LAYER FROM SURFACE TO 800MB AND
REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. PLUS THERE IS
VERY LITTLE ELEVATED OR SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY THROUGH 00Z
SUNDAY. EVEN THOUGH SHEAR PROFILES ARE ADEQUATE FOR
CONVECTION...THERE IS NO TRIGGER MECHANISM AVAILABLE UNTIL AFTER 00Z
SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE FOR THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD. FIRST CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF PRECIP AND COVERAGE WITH
APPROACHING PLAINS TROUGH.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TONIGHT CUTS ACROSS
ONTARIO SOUTHWEST THROUGH ILLINOIS SOUTH TO SOUTH TX. WEAK MOISTURE
ADV AT H850 BEGINNING TO CREEP NORTH ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY. AT
THE SFC...DEW POINTS TO 50F UP TO WICHITA FALLS WITH MID 40S ALONG
SOUTHERN PLAINS WARM FRONT TO WESTERN KS. MODELS DIFFER ON TIMING OF
PRECIP/COVERAGE AND FORCING/QPF AS WELL. INITIALLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE
MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE WITH LESS INSTABILITY...THEN GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE UNSTABLE SUNDAY. WITH THAT IN MIND...HAVE REDUCED TO ISO
THUNDER SAT NIGHT AND SCT THUNDER SUNDAY GRADUALLY GOING GENERAL
THUNDER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. GEM/EURO ARE SLOWER AND HAVE LESS MOISTURE
INPUT/OUTPUT THAN GFS. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR GFS TO BE TOO FAST AND
THOUGH MOISTURE WILL SURELY GET HERE...HAVE SLOWED ARRIVAL AND
EASTWARD PROGRESSION WHILE KEEPING EXPECTED TROUGH ACROSS THE REGION
BY LATE SAT NIGHT/SUNDAY ACTIVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THUS...QUITE A SPREAD OF CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON
EASTER SUNDAY WITH COOLER/WETTER WEATHER NORTH AND PARTLY SUNNY AND
MILDER WEATHER SOUTHEAST THROUGH MOST OF DAY AND EVENING. NORTHWEST
SHOULD SEE BEST LIFT NEARER THE UPPER LEVEL/SFC TROUGH AXIS WITH
THE ENTIRE TROUGH SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
WHEN POP INCREASES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECTED
RAINFALL FROM THE EURO/GEM THROUGH MON LOOKS GREATEST ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...OVER AREAS WHICH SAW THE LEAST AMOUNT LAST WEEKEND
WHILE LESSER AMOUNTS EXPECTED SOUTHEAST WITH A GENERAL RANGE FROM
.25 TO .75 WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. GFS APPEARS TO BE HAVING
SOME CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES WITH POCKETS OF 1-2 INCH RAINS
NEAR A CLOSED SFC LOW AND LARGE STRIPE OF TOTALS OF 2-3 INCHES
WHICH DONT LOOK LIKELY...WHILE THE GEM/EURO SHOW MOSTLY A WEAKER
TROUGH ALIGNMENT SW/NE ORIENTATION. PREFER THE LATTER...WEAKER
FORCING SCENARIO. THE SYSTEM MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST
WITH SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDER PRIOR TO LIFTING OUT. RELATIVELY
QUIET WX RETURNS FOR TUESDAY WITH RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS
THE REGION. DESPITE THE COOLER AIRMASS...H850 TEMPS WILL STILL
REACH 2C NORTHEAST TO 5-6C WEST/SOUTHWEST WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
HIGHS NEAR 60 NORTHEAST AND IN THE MID 60S CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL RETURN TO ACTIVE WEATHER AS A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM ENTERING THE PACNW MOVES EAST LATE
TUES NIGHT AND ENTERS THE PLAINS BY 00Z THURSDAY. AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM...H500 RIDGING ALOFT WILL INCREASE THICKNESS/H850 TEMPS
WITH A ROUND OF WARM AIR ADVECTION CROSSING THE REGION BY WED
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. DIFFICULT FORECAST FOR
TEMPS WED DUE TO POSSIBLE OVC/SCT THUNDER FOR MOST OF THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS MAY RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO MID 60S DEPENDING
ON THE COVERAGE. LITTLE CHANCE FOR SVR INITIALLY...BUT AS THE MAIN
WAVE ARRIVES WED NIGHT...STRENGTHENING WIND FIELDS FROM THE SFC
THROUGH H300 MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVERNIGHT WITH
A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG STORMS. AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHEAST
THURSDAY...IT OCCLUDES FURTHER AND FORCES THE BEST INSTABILITY
EAST INTO ILLINOIS BY 00Z FRIDAY...KEEPING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ORGANIZED SVR WX MAINLY EAST OF THE REGION. ANY SLOWER EVOLUTION
AND DEPARTURE...HOWEVER...WOULD PLACE A BETTER CHANCE FOR STRONGER
STORMS BACK IN IOWA DURING THE DAY THURSDAY AND WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THIS WEEK ESPECIALLY WITH THE STRONG WIND FIELDS THROUGH
THE COLUMN. COOLER AIR REGIONWIDE AND LINGERING SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE NORTH HALF WITH A BRISK WNW WIND THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY RESULTING IN HIGHS BACK IN THE 50S OVER MOST OF THE AREA.
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS INTO THE WEEKEND AS THE MODELS DIVERGE ON
SOLUTIONS. WHILE THE GFS SHOWS MOISTURE RETURN LATE IN THE
WEEKEND...THE EURO IS SPINNING UP ANOTHER LOW SATURDAY OVER THE
PLAINS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYSTEM WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION THUNDER BY
00Z SUNDAY OVER OUR AREA. FOR NOW...WILL LEAN TOWARD A DRIER
SOLUTION ON SATURDAY UNTIL SOME CONFIRMATION OF TRENDS IS
APPARENT. SEEMS MORE REASONABLE THAT SOME SEPARATION WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN FRIDAYS LINGERING OCCLUDED LOW AND THE NEXT UPSTREAM WAVE.

&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO AREA LATE IN FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIOD...WITH
WINDS FROM THE SE TO S...BECOMING SW LATE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON. NEAR BOUNDARY...WILL SEE LOWER VFR CEILINGS LATE
IN PERIOD WITH VCSH POSSIBLE BEYOND PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 190500
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1200 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...AND WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SW NE BY
EARLY SATURDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVELS WITH WAA OVERNIGHT. SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES EASTWARD...THUS EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHERE WINDS MAY BECOME
LIGHT...UNTIL THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN TOWARD LATE EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP SOME AND THE
WAA...HAVE KEPT LOWS MILDER IN THE 40S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SPLIT UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER
THAT...GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT IN AMPLIFYING THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MOVING A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE
TO WARM ADVECTION AND GOOD MIXING ON SATURDAY. SINCE IT IS A WARM
ADVECTION SITUATION...WE DO NOT EXPECT THE FULL MIXED LAYER WINDS
TO BE MAXIMIZED AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 40S...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD FALL TO
NEAR 30 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT...NEITHER THE WIND OR THE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY REACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA...SO NO ACTION
IS NEEDED IN THAT ARENA. THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE DEWPOINTS MAY
BE TOO HIGH ON SATURDAY SINCE RECENTLY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO
MOIST DURING RETURN MOISTURE SITUATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN IOWA OR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE FRONT THROUGH IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. PROLONGED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TRANSPORT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR LATE APRIL. GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND A
RATHER SLOW MOVING FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY IN THE NORTH. AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MODERATE WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS DUE TO
AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY.

FOR THE EXTENDED...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BRING A STRONG SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER IN THE EXTENDED. GIVEN
THE APPARENT DYNAMICS AND WIND FIELDS...THERE SHOULD BE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AT SOME POINT IN CENTRAL IOWA. TIMING AND
INSTABILITY DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL FORECAST DECENT THUNDERSTORM POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO AREA LATE IN FORECAST
PERIOD. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIOD...WITH
WINDS FROM THE SE TO S...BECOMING SW LATE. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY IN
THE AFTERNOON. NEAR BOUNDARY...WILL SEE LOWER VFR CEILINGS LATE
IN PERIOD WITH VCSH POSSIBLE BEYOND PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 182323
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
623 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...AND WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SW NE BY
EARLY SATURDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVELS WITH WAA OVERNIGHT. SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES EASTWARD...THUS EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHERE WINDS MAY BECOME
LIGHT...UNTIL THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN TOWARD LATE EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP SOME AND THE
WAA...HAVE KEPT LOWS MILDER IN THE 40S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SPLIT UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER
THAT...GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT IN AMPLIFYING THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MOVING A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE
TO WARM ADVECTION AND GOOD MIXING ON SATURDAY. SINCE IT IS A WARM
ADVECTION SITUATION...WE DO NOT EXPECT THE FULL MIXED LAYER WINDS
TO BE MAXIMIZED AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 40S...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD FALL TO
NEAR 30 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT...NEITHER THE WIND OR THE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY REACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA...SO NO ACTION
IS NEEDED IN THAT ARENA. THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE DEWPOINTS MAY
BE TOO HIGH ON SATURDAY SINCE RECENTLY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO
MOIST DURING RETURN MOISTURE SITUATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN IOWA OR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE FRONT THROUGH IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. PROLONGED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TRANSPORT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR LATE APRIL. GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND A
RATHER SLOW MOVING FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY IN THE NORTH. AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MODERATE WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS DUE TO
AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY.

FOR THE EXTENDED...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BRING A STRONG SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER IN THE EXTENDED. GIVEN
THE APPARENT DYNAMICS AND WIND FIELDS...THERE SHOULD BE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AT SOME POINT IN CENTRAL IOWA. TIMING AND
INSTABILITY DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL FORECAST DECENT THUNDERSTORM POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...19/00Z
ISSUED AT 621 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE
PERIOD. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT WILL
AGAIN BE GUSTY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 182052
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
TODAY...AND WILL PUSH EAST INTO THE EASTERN DAKOTAS INTO SW NE BY
EARLY SATURDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE IN THE
LOW LEVELS WITH WAA OVERNIGHT. SFC PRES GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO
TIGHTEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SFC LOW TRANSLATES EASTWARD...THUS EXPECT
WINDS TO STAY UP SOME OVERNIGHT. EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE
EASTERN CWA TOWARD THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WHERE WINDS MAY BECOME
LIGHT...UNTIL THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN TOWARD LATE EVENING
INTO OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH THE WINDS STAYING UP SOME AND THE
WAA...HAVE KEPT LOWS MILDER IN THE 40S ACROSS THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SPLIT UPPER ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AFTER
THAT...GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT IN AMPLIFYING THE NORTHERN STREAM
BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK MOVING A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.

SURFACE RIDGE FROM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST TODAY WILL MOVE EAST
TONIGHT AND DECENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP BY SATURDAY
MORNING. WARMER TEMPERATURES AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE
TO WARM ADVECTION AND GOOD MIXING ON SATURDAY. SINCE IT IS A WARM
ADVECTION SITUATION...WE DO NOT EXPECT THE FULL MIXED LAYER WINDS
TO BE MAXIMIZED AT THE SURFACE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED DEWPOINTS IN
THE UPPER 40S...MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES SHOULD FALL TO
NEAR 30 PERCENT. AT THIS POINT...NEITHER THE WIND OR THE MINIMUM
RELATIVE HUMIDITY REACH RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA...SO NO ACTION
IS NEEDED IN THAT ARENA. THERE IS CONCERN THAT THE DEWPOINTS MAY
BE TOO HIGH ON SATURDAY SINCE RECENTLY THE MODELS HAVE BEEN TO
MOIST DURING RETURN MOISTURE SITUATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL STALL SOMEWHERE OVER NORTHERN IOWA OR SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE FRONT SHOULD STALL AS A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST CANADA.
THE FRONT WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY UNTIL THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFIES ENOUGH TO DRIVE THE FRONT THROUGH IOWA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. PROLONGED MOISTURE ADVECTION AND TRANSPORT SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY EVENTUALLY RESULTS IN FAIRLY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
FOR LATE APRIL. GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE...MODEST INSTABILITY AND A
RATHER SLOW MOVING FRONT...EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR
THE BOUNDARY SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY IN THE NORTH. AS THE
BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD BE MODERATE WITH ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS DUE TO
AMPLE MOISTURE SUPPLY.

FOR THE EXTENDED...THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS BOTH BRING A STRONG SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES DURING THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PRIMARY WEATHER MAKER IN THE EXTENDED. GIVEN
THE APPARENT DYNAMICS AND WIND FIELDS...THERE SHOULD BE A SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT AT SOME POINT IN CENTRAL IOWA. TIMING AND
INSTABILITY DETAILS ARE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT AT THIS POINT. WE
WILL FORECAST DECENT THUNDERSTORM POPS FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...18/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 181740
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1240 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IA WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST AND MINOR OUT AS
NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. A STRONGER
SYSTEM IS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AND INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS WITH
LINGERING FOG ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND MAX TEMPERATURES.
LEANED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAT THE 18.00Z NAM AS THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF SEEM
A BIT TOO COLD. PLUS...THE NAM DID SLIGHTLY BETTER WRT TO MAX
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTIONED THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AS WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD DISSIPATE IT RATHER QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA SO WAA TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT FAVORED. WILL SLOW DOWN THE PRECIP FURTHER WITH
THIS PACKAGE WITH SYSTEMS MOVING SLOWER THAN EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF
INDICATED YESTERDAY. INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY WITH K
INDICES IN THE 30 TO 35 C RANGE WITH 700 TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE
AVAILABLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD TSRA BY SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY IS BROKEN.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS REDUCED BY THE DISTANCE FROM THE PARENT LOW
AND THE OVERALL SYSTEM WEAKENING AS S/WV WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
WEAKENS.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. UPPER AIR SHOWS A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST AFTER THAT. CAPE VALUES ARE
HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND EXCEPTED TO SEE A PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM TUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS WELL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
RISING TO AROUND 60 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WED, AND OVER THE
EAST THU.

&&

.AVIATION...18/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS APR 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS APR 14
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 181133
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
633 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IA WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST AND MINOR OUT AS
NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. A STRONGER
SYSTEM IS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AND INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS WITH
LINGERING FOG ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND MAX TEMPERATURES.
LEANED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAT THE 18.00Z NAM AS THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF SEEM
A BIT TOO COLD. PLUS...THE NAM DID SLIGHTLY BETTER WRT TO MAX
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTIONED THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AS WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD DISSIPATE IT RATHER QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA SO WAA TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT FAVORED. WILL SLOW DOWN THE PRECIP FURTHER WITH
THIS PACKAGE WITH SYSTEMS MOVING SLOWER THAN EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF
INDICATED YESTERDAY. INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY WITH K
INDICES IN THE 30 TO 35 C RANGE WITH 700 TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE
AVAILABLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD TSRA BY SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY IS BROKEN.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS REDUCED BY THE DISTANCE FROM THE PARENT LOW
AND THE OVERALL SYSTEM WEAKENING AS S/WV WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
WEAKENS.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. UPPER AIR SHOWS A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST AFTER THAT. CAPE VALUES ARE
HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND EXCEPTED TO SEE A PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM TUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS WELL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
RISING TO AROUND 60 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WED, AND OVER THE
EAST THU.

&&

.AVIATION...18/12Z
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

ONCE THE EARLY MORNING FOG DISSIPATES BY AROUND 13-14Z THIS
MORNING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS APR 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS APR 14
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 180836
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
336 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IA WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST AND MINOR OUT AS
NEGATIVE TILTED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. A STRONGER
SYSTEM IS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AND INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS WITH
LINGERING FOG ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND MAX TEMPERATURES.
LEANED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAT THE 18.00Z NAM AS THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF SEEM
A BIT TOO COLD. PLUS...THE NAM DID SLIGHTLY BETTER WRT TO MAX
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTIONED THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AS WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD DISSIPATE IT RATHER QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA SO WAA TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT FAVORED. WILL SLOW DOWN THE PRECIP FURTHER WITH
THIS PACKAGE WITH SYSTEMS MOVING SLOWER THAN EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF
INDICATED YESTERDAY. INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY WITH K
INDICES IN THE 30 TO 35 C RANGE WITH 700 TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE
AVAILABLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD TSRA BY SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY IS BROKEN.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS REDUCED BY THE DISTANCE FROM THE PARENT LOW
AND THE OVERALL SYSTEM WEAKENING AS S/WV WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
WEAKENS.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. UPPER AIR SHOWS A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST AFTER THAT. CAPE VALUES ARE
HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND EXCEPTED TO SEE A PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM TUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS WELL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
RISING TO AROUND 60 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WED, AND OVER THE
EAST THU.

&&

.AVIATION...18/06Z
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FRIDAY WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS APR 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS APR 14
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 180832
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
332 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IA WILL DRIFT OFF TO THE EAST AS LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE EAST AND MINOR OUT AS
NEGATIVE TILE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. A STRONGER
SYSTEM IS POISED TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION
TODAY AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT AND INCREASE OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS WITH
LINGERING FOG ACROSS THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND MAX TEMPERATURES.
LEANED SLIGHTLY WARMER THAT THE 18.00Z NAM AS THE GFS/ECMWF/SREF SEEM
A BIT TOO COLD. PLUS...THE NAM DID SLIGHTLY BETTER WRT TO MAX
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY. HAVE PATCHY FOG MENTIONED THROUGH 14Z THIS
MORNING IN THE NORTHEAST AS WINDS SHOULD INCREASE AND SUNSHINE
SHOULD DISSIPATE IT RATHER QUICKLY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 316 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST
THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA SO WAA TSRA
DEVELOPMENT IS NOT FAVORED. WILL SLOW DOWN THE PRECIP FURTHER WITH
THIS PACKAGE WITH SYSTEMS MOVING SLOWER THAN EVEN THE SLOWER ECMWF
INDICATED YESTERDAY. INSTABILITY IS A LITTLE HIGHER TODAY WITH K
INDICES IN THE 30 TO 35 C RANGE WITH 700 TO 1500 J/KG OF CAPE
AVAILABLE SUN AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD TSRA BY SUN
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND EVENTUALLY IS BROKEN.
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS REDUCED BY THE DISTANCE FROM THE PARENT LOW
AND THE OVERALL SYSTEM WEAKENING AS S/WV WELL TO THE NORTHWEST
WEAKENS.

ATTENTION TURNS TO THE NEXT SYSTEM. UPPER AIR SHOWS A FULL
LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN U.S. EARLY IN THE WEEK AND
MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE EAST AFTER THAT. CAPE VALUES ARE
HIGHER WITH THIS SYSTEM AND EXCEPTED TO SEE A PERIOD OF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXTENDING FROM TUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
DEEPER MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE AS WELL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
RISING TO AROUND 60 AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ON WED, AND OVER THE
EAST THU.

&&

.AVIATION...18/06Z
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FRIDAY WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS APR 14
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...MS APR 14
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 180455
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1155 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL TRANSIT
THE STATE TONIGHT WITH THE AXIS POSITIONED JUST EAST OF THE CWA BY
SUNRISE ON FRIDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL LESSEN AS THE RIDGE
APPROACHES AND THEN VEER TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE RIDGE. LOWERED MIN TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW GUIDANCE
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS DIRECTLY OVERHEAD BETWEEN
06 AND 12Z...THOUGH CLOUDS APPROACHING AFTER 09Z MAY KEEP TEMPS
WARMER THAN FORECAST. THESE CLOUDS ARE TIED TO A REGION OF THETA-E
ADVECTION ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE RETURNING WARM AIR.
HOWEVER...THE BEST THERMODYNAMIC FORCING IS FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST
OVER SOUTHWEST MN AND EASTERN SD. REMOVED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
THAT WAS ORIGINALLY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NW CWA WITH THE FORCING
FURTHER NW THAN PREVIOUSLY PROGGED AND SUBSTANTIAL WEDGE OF DRY AIR
BELOW 5-10 KFT AS NOTED ON THE SLB AND FRM NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 303 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGES IN EXTENDED REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES NEAR WEEKEND. FOR NEAR TERM...RIDGE WILL BUILD IN FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA FOR FRIDAY
MORNING/AFTERNOON. HAVE LEFT POPS OUT FOR NOW WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE IN LOW LEVELS. HOWEVER...MAY SEE A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS
OR SPRINKLES EARLY. WITH WAA AND SOUTHERLY FLOW UNDER RIDGE
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESSION OF THIS BOUNDARY...AND HAVE
ALSO CUT BACK ON TIMING OF PRECIPITATION. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE BOUNDARY WITH DECENT INSTABILITY AND FORCING NEAR BOUNDARY.
BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY PUSH SOUTH...AS SECONDARY LOW IN CENTRAL
KANSAS LIFTS NORTHEAST. MODELS ARE CURRENTLY IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THIS SET UP...THOUGH ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OR
TRACK OF SOUTHERN LOW. HOWEVER...GENERAL THINKING IS THAT LOW
LIFTING NORTHEAST WILL LIMIT SOUTHERN PUSH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...WITH PROLONGED PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHER
CWA. MODELS REMAIN AGGRESSIVE WITH AMOUNT OF MOISTURE PULLED
NORTH...WITH PWAT VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY. HOWEVER...DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS ABOUT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...AND FEEL MODELS ARE TOO AGGRESSIVE AND WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. IN ADDITION...INSTABILITY IS
SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDERSTORMS...INDICATING SB CAPE VALUES BELOW
1000 J/KG LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
NEED TO MONITOR FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH SE OF AREA BY LATE MONDAY...WITH A
RETURN TO RIDGE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...AGAIN ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO WARM. LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS
NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT IN PLACEMENT OF THIS LOW...WITH ECMWF FURTHER
NORTH...AND GFS TRENDING TOWARDS THIS MORE NORTHERN SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...MODELS INDICATE SECONDARY SURFACE LOW AGAIN LIFTING NE
INTO EASTERN NE/IOWA BY LATE THURSDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AGAIN. HAVE INCLUDED PRECIPITATION CHANCES
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AND PERSISTING THROUGH END OF PERIOD.
HOWEVER...GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES...MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH PRECIP
ONSET WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...18/06Z
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
TO BECOME SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS FRIDAY WITH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...BEERENDS





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