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000
FXUS63 KDMX 291741
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1241 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH AN AREA
OF MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
CURRENTLY LINGERING IN OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY MOVING
AWAY. BECAUSE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ONCE THE RAIN CLEARS OUR FORECAST
AREA...CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND A SUNNY AND NOTABLY COOLER AND
DRIER DAY IS IN STORE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST AND NO WEATHER OF IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED...OTHER THAN SOME
MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IN STORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AND THEN THERE WILL BE ONE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND TO AFFECT
MUCH OF IOWA.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. IOWA BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
DECENT MIXING ANTICIPATED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER GFS FOR BOTH DAYS WHICH CAUSED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX
TEMPS. A WEAK TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY BUT STILL NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO CAUSE FOR CONCERN AND LEFT FORECAST DRY
ATTM.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FAIRLY STRONG 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDES THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO IOWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING. SEVERE
WEATHER ATTM LOOKS LIMITED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
DEPICTED. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTH TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. AT THIS TIME...LEFT ANY MENTION OF
FOG OUT OF TAFS AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH AND
WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT RADIATIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...KOTENBERG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 291741
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1241 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

...UPDATED FOR AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH AN AREA
OF MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
CURRENTLY LINGERING IN OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY MOVING
AWAY. BECAUSE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ONCE THE RAIN CLEARS OUR FORECAST
AREA...CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND A SUNNY AND NOTABLY COOLER AND
DRIER DAY IS IN STORE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST AND NO WEATHER OF IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED...OTHER THAN SOME
MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IN STORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AND THEN THERE WILL BE ONE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND TO AFFECT
MUCH OF IOWA.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. IOWA BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
DECENT MIXING ANTICIPATED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER GFS FOR BOTH DAYS WHICH CAUSED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX
TEMPS. A WEAK TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY BUT STILL NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO CAUSE FOR CONCERN AND LEFT FORECAST DRY
ATTM.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FAIRLY STRONG 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDES THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO IOWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING. SEVERE
WEATHER ATTM LOOKS LIMITED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
DEPICTED. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE
NORTH TO DIMINISH WITH SUNSET. AT THIS TIME...LEFT ANY MENTION OF
FOG OUT OF TAFS AS DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD BE HIGH ENOUGH AND
WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT RADIATIVE FOG DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...KOTENBERG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 291127
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH AN AREA
OF MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
CURRENTLY LINGERING IN OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY MOVING
AWAY. BECAUSE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ONCE THE RAIN CLEARS OUR FORECAST
AREA...CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND A SUNNY AND NOTABLY COOLER AND
DRIER DAY IS IN STORE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST AND NO WEATHER OF IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED...OTHER THAN SOME
MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IN STORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AND THEN THERE WILL BE ONE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND TO AFFECT
MUCH OF IOWA.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. IOWA BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
DECENT MIXING ANTICIPATED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER GFS FOR BOTH DAYS WHICH CAUSED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX
TEMPS. A WEAK TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY BUT STILL NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO CAUSE FOR CONCERN AND LEFT FORECAST DRY
ATTM.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FAIRLY STRONG 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDES THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO IOWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING. SEVERE
WEATHER ATTM LOOKS LIMITED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
DEPICTED. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

LINGERING CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST WITH ONLY VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. WNW WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY...MAINLY AT THE NORTHERN
TERMINALS...THEN DIMINISH AGAIN THIS EVENING. NO PRECIP OR
OBSCURATIONS ARE FORECAST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 290827
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
327 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY CLEARED OUT OF THE AREA...WITH AN AREA
OF MODERATE STRATIFORM RAIN AND A FEW EMBEDDED LIGHTNING STRIKES
CURRENTLY LINGERING IN OUR FAR SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SLOWLY MOVING
AWAY. BECAUSE THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT HAS ENDED THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED. ONCE THE RAIN CLEARS OUR FORECAST
AREA...CLOUDS WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND A SUNNY AND NOTABLY COOLER AND
DRIER DAY IS IN STORE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST AND NO WEATHER OF IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED...OTHER THAN SOME
MODERATE BREEZES ACROSS ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

MUCH QUIETER WEATHER IN STORE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK AND THEN THERE WILL BE ONE SYSTEM OVER THE WEEKEND TO AFFECT
MUCH OF IOWA.

TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
OVER THE REGION WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HOLDING IN PLACE
OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY ON THURSDAY. IOWA BEGINS TO
TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER
THE SOUTHWEST BY FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WERE THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
DECENT MIXING ANTICIPATED BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LEANED TOWARD
THE WARMER GFS FOR BOTH DAYS WHICH CAUSED A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MAX
TEMPS. A WEAK TROUGH CUTS ACROSS THE STATE FRIDAY BUT STILL NOT
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO CAUSE FOR CONCERN AND LEFT FORECAST DRY
ATTM.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FAIRLY STRONG 500MB SHORTWAVE RIDES THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND PUSHES INTO IOWA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. THE BEST FORCING MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AND
ENOUGH MOISTURE PRESENT TO KEEP HIGH CHANCE POPS GOING. SEVERE
WEATHER ATTM LOOKS LIMITED WITH WEAK INSTABILITY AND SHEAR
DEPICTED. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE STATE
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND MAY PROVIDE ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KFOD/KMCW/KALO/KDSM. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT AT KFOD/KMCW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING
SOON AT KDSM/KALO. KOTM WILL BE IMPACTED BY MVFR FOG AND/OR SHOWER
VSBY RESTRICTIONS BEFORE SEEING SIMILAR TRENDS TOWARD VFR AND
CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 290542
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1242 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONCERN FOR PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS. REMNANT
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF 700MB WARM NOSE...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA.
CONCERN WILL BE IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING PRECIPITATION. SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
STRONG SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR PERSISTENCE AND HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TORNADIC THREAT.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO AREA.
HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED HIGH RES MODEL TIMING AND
PLACEMENT...GENERALLY BEFORE 06Z AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
SYSTEM TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...EXPECT STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS...WITH
PWAT VALUES VERY NEAR 2 INCHES AND GOOD WARM CLOUD DEPTH. GIVEN
PREVIOUS DAYS HEAVY RAINFALL AND CURRENT RAINFALL TRENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA...HAVE ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CWA. HAVE ISSUED THROUGH 12Z...THOUGH EXPECT EARLY
CANCELLATION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY 12Z THROUGH SATURDAY 12Z...SHAPES UP TO BE A VERY QUIET
PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING
IN WEDNESDAY AND DOMINATING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND SOME LOW 90S. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW LOW 90S WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING THE BEST
MIXING...TO ABOVE 850MB...BETWEEN NOW AND THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY 12Z THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE TO
SEASONABLY COOL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER RETURN TO THE
REGION THANKS TO A COUPLE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. GFS/ECMWF ARE
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES...BUT
DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT WIDESPREAD LOW END
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE
APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...BUT IS DEPICTED STRONGEST BY THE GFS VERSUS THE ECMWF
WHICH ONLY HINTS AT THE COLD FRONT. MODELS DIGRESS FURTHER BEYOND
MONDAY WITH THE GFS TRYING TO BUILD IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF STICKS TO THE STATUS QUO
WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME FLATTENING OF THE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KFOD/KMCW/KALO/KDSM. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT AT KFOD/KMCW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING
SOON AT KDSM/KALO. KOTM WILL BE IMPACTED BY MVFR FOG AND/OR SHOWER
VSBY RESTRICTIONS BEFORE SEEING SIMILAR TRENDS TOWARD VFR AND
CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR APPANOOSE-
CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-
POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 290542
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1242 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONCERN FOR PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS. REMNANT
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF 700MB WARM NOSE...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA.
CONCERN WILL BE IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING PRECIPITATION. SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
STRONG SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR PERSISTENCE AND HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TORNADIC THREAT.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO AREA.
HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED HIGH RES MODEL TIMING AND
PLACEMENT...GENERALLY BEFORE 06Z AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
SYSTEM TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...EXPECT STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS...WITH
PWAT VALUES VERY NEAR 2 INCHES AND GOOD WARM CLOUD DEPTH. GIVEN
PREVIOUS DAYS HEAVY RAINFALL AND CURRENT RAINFALL TRENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA...HAVE ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CWA. HAVE ISSUED THROUGH 12Z...THOUGH EXPECT EARLY
CANCELLATION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY 12Z THROUGH SATURDAY 12Z...SHAPES UP TO BE A VERY QUIET
PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING
IN WEDNESDAY AND DOMINATING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND SOME LOW 90S. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW LOW 90S WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING THE BEST
MIXING...TO ABOVE 850MB...BETWEEN NOW AND THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY 12Z THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE TO
SEASONABLY COOL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER RETURN TO THE
REGION THANKS TO A COUPLE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. GFS/ECMWF ARE
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES...BUT
DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT WIDESPREAD LOW END
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE
APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...BUT IS DEPICTED STRONGEST BY THE GFS VERSUS THE ECMWF
WHICH ONLY HINTS AT THE COLD FRONT. MODELS DIGRESS FURTHER BEYOND
MONDAY WITH THE GFS TRYING TO BUILD IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF STICKS TO THE STATUS QUO
WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME FLATTENING OF THE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1239 AM CDT WED JUL 29 2015

HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDITIONS AT KFOD/KMCW/KALO/KDSM. SKIES
SHOULD CLEAR OVERNIGHT AT KFOD/KMCW WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ENDING
SOON AT KDSM/KALO. KOTM WILL BE IMPACTED BY MVFR FOG AND/OR SHOWER
VSBY RESTRICTIONS BEFORE SEEING SIMILAR TRENDS TOWARD VFR AND
CLEARING LATER THIS MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR APPANOOSE-
CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MONROE-
POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 282052
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONCERN FOR PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS. REMNANT
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF 700MB WARM NOSE...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA.
CONCERN WILL BE IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING PRECIPITATION. SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
STRONG SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR PERSISTENCE AND HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TORNADIC THREAT.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO AREA.
HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED HIGH RES MODEL TIMING AND
PLACEMENT...GENERALLY BEFORE 06Z AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
SYSTEM TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...EXPECT STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS...WITH
PWAT VALUES VERY NEAR 2 INCHES AND GOOD WARM CLOUD DEPTH. GIVEN
PREVIOUS DAYS HEAVY RAINFALL AND CURRENT RAINFALL TRENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA...HAVE ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CWA. HAVE ISSUED THROUGH 12Z...THOUGH EXPECT EARLY
CANCELLATION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY 12Z THROUGH SATURDAY 12Z...SHAPES UP TO BE A VERY QUIET
PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING
IN WEDNESDAY AND DOMINATING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND SOME LOW 90S. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW LOW 90S WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING THE BEST
MIXING...TO ABOVE 850MB...BETWEEN NOW AND THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY 12Z THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE TO
SEASONABLY COOL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER RETURN TO THE
REGION THANKS TO A COUPLE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. GFS/ECMWF ARE
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES...BUT
DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT WIDESPREAD LOW END
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE
APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...BUT IS DEPICTED STRONGEST BY THE GFS VERSUS THE ECMWF
WHICH ONLY HINTS AT THE COLD FRONT. MODELS DIGRESS FURTHER BEYOND
MONDAY WITH THE GFS TRYING TO BUILD IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF STICKS TO THE STATUS QUO
WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME FLATTENING OF THE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH ONGOING TSRA MAY AFFECT KFOD AND KDSM EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA IN
LATER AFTERNOON AND NEAR 00Z TO SITES. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS MENTION
FOR NOW WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSRA. TSRA
AT SITES MAY CAUSE MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS. BEHIND BOUNDARY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND WILL INCREASE BEYOND 12Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-
MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-
TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 282052
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

CONCERN FOR PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS. REMNANT
PRECIPITATION WILL PERSIST AHEAD OF 700MB WARM NOSE...WITH
INCREASING CHANCES AS BOUNDARY BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO IOWA.
CONCERN WILL BE IF MORE ROBUST CONVECTION CAN DEVELOP GENERALLY
SOUTH OF THIS ONGOING PRECIPITATION. SPC MESO ANALYSIS INDICATES
GOOD INSTABILITY BUT GIVEN CLOUD COVER AND LACK OF
DEVELOPMENT...CONVECTIVE THREAT WILL BE TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. STORMS WHICH DEVELOP WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
STRONG SHEAR TO ALLOW FOR PERSISTENCE AND HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT TORNADIC THREAT.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA.
EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO EXPAND AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO AREA.
HAVE GENERALLY FAVORED HIGH RES MODEL TIMING AND
PLACEMENT...GENERALLY BEFORE 06Z AND PUSHING SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
SYSTEM TO BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE AS BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH.
HOWEVER...EXPECT STORMS TO BE EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCERS...WITH
PWAT VALUES VERY NEAR 2 INCHES AND GOOD WARM CLOUD DEPTH. GIVEN
PREVIOUS DAYS HEAVY RAINFALL AND CURRENT RAINFALL TRENDS ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA...HAVE ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN CWA. HAVE ISSUED THROUGH 12Z...THOUGH EXPECT EARLY
CANCELLATION BEHIND FRONT.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEDNESDAY 12Z THROUGH SATURDAY 12Z...SHAPES UP TO BE A VERY QUIET
PERIOD WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT SETTING
IN WEDNESDAY AND DOMINATING THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK AND
INTO SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SEASONABLE...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AND SOME LOW 90S. THURSDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR A FEW LOW 90S WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICTING THE BEST
MIXING...TO ABOVE 850MB...BETWEEN NOW AND THE WEEKEND.

SATURDAY 12Z THROUGH TUESDAY...WHILE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN
IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD...KEEPING TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE TO
SEASONABLY COOL...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDER RETURN TO THE
REGION THANKS TO A COUPLE SUCCESSIVE SHORTWAVES. GFS/ECMWF ARE
GENERALLY IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF THE SHORTWAVES...BUT
DISAGREE ON PLACEMENT. THEREFORE...HAVE KEPT WIDESPREAD LOW END
POPS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE STRONGEST SHORTWAVE
APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH...BUT IS DEPICTED STRONGEST BY THE GFS VERSUS THE ECMWF
WHICH ONLY HINTS AT THE COLD FRONT. MODELS DIGRESS FURTHER BEYOND
MONDAY WITH THE GFS TRYING TO BUILD IN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHILE THE ECMWF STICKS TO THE STATUS QUO
WITH CONTINUED NORTHWEST FLOW AND SOME FLATTENING OF THE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH ONGOING TSRA MAY AFFECT KFOD AND KDSM EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA IN
LATER AFTERNOON AND NEAR 00Z TO SITES. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS MENTION
FOR NOW WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSRA. TSRA
AT SITES MAY CAUSE MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS. BEHIND BOUNDARY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND WILL INCREASE BEYOND 12Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING FOR APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MADISON-
MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-
TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 281738
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1238 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH MANY CONSIDERATIONS. FIRST
AND FOREMOST...OUR MESSY CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS WE
REMAIN WITHIN THE SAME SOUPY AIRMASS THAT HAS PERSISTED THIS
WEEKEND. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY DEPICTS A LONG SQUALL LINE
STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
AHEAD OF THIS LINE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA WITHIN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME. RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF THESE SCATTERED STORMS UNTIL THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA BEING
AFFECTED. IF THE STORMS DIVE DOWN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
DEPICTED BY MESOANALYSIS THEN THEY MAY REACH SOUTHERN
IOWA...HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT IS WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE SQUALL LINE
WILL AFFECT NORTHERN IOWA...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A GRADUALLY MODIFYING
COLD POOL BY AROUND MIDDAY.

IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...IF CONVECTION REALLY DOES REMAIN
CONFINED TO OUR NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S OR SO. THIS WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES...AND JUSTIFIES THE
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL HEAT ADVISORY AGAINST THOSE ALREADY ISSUED BY
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AGAINST OUR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER. HOWEVER...IF
THE MORNING STORMS MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED THE
ADVISORY MAY NOT PAN OUT...AND CONVERSELY IF MORNING CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS REMAINS CONFINED TO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THEN THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD A BIT DURING THE DAY.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS WE REACH PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING TIME THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD
PROVIDE FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRECEDING OUR WELL ADVERTISED COOL FRONT
APPROACHING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION BELOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION OF
THIS REDEVELOPMENT CONTINGENT ON THE PATH MORNING STORMS
TAKE...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WILL
CERTAINLY BE WITHIN A FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT AS
OUTLINED BY SPC PRODUCTS. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS AFTER ABOUT
22Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT AND THE CONVECTION IT WILL BRING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS ARE IN OKAY AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT WITH THE 28.00Z NAM THE SLOWEST MODEL AND NOT
INITIALIZING WELL THIS MORNING...THUS KEPT IT AS THE OUTLIER
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THIS
EVENING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN A COLD POOL. INSTABILITY IS PLENTIFUL WITH MUCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1500-3500J/KG PER GFS/ECMWF. MCS MAINTENANCE
PROBABILITY VIA THE ECMWF/GFS ARE OVER 40 PERCENT WITH GFS AS
HIGH AS 90 THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL DURING MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE CLEARING THE FORECAST
AREA B/T 06-09Z WEDNESDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS/LARGE HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE OTHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE STATE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 2 TO 2.4 INCHES. ISOLATED AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING COULD POSE AN ISSUE TONIGHT IF ANY TRAINING
OCCURS ON TOP OF THE AREAS THAT WERE HIT WITH HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING IS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SUB-ADVISORY ATTM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME
MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S BEGIN ON FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE
STATE FRIDAY BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...KEPT FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF HINTING ON A
DECENT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH ONGOING TSRA MAY AFFECT KFOD AND KDSM EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA IN
LATER AFTERNOON AND NEAR 00Z TO SITES. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS MENTION
FOR NOW WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSRA. TSRA
AT SITES MAY CAUSE MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS. BEHIND BOUNDARY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND WILL INCREASE BEYOND 12Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 281738
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1238 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH MANY CONSIDERATIONS. FIRST
AND FOREMOST...OUR MESSY CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS WE
REMAIN WITHIN THE SAME SOUPY AIRMASS THAT HAS PERSISTED THIS
WEEKEND. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY DEPICTS A LONG SQUALL LINE
STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
AHEAD OF THIS LINE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA WITHIN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME. RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF THESE SCATTERED STORMS UNTIL THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA BEING
AFFECTED. IF THE STORMS DIVE DOWN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
DEPICTED BY MESOANALYSIS THEN THEY MAY REACH SOUTHERN
IOWA...HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT IS WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE SQUALL LINE
WILL AFFECT NORTHERN IOWA...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A GRADUALLY MODIFYING
COLD POOL BY AROUND MIDDAY.

IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...IF CONVECTION REALLY DOES REMAIN
CONFINED TO OUR NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S OR SO. THIS WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES...AND JUSTIFIES THE
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL HEAT ADVISORY AGAINST THOSE ALREADY ISSUED BY
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AGAINST OUR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER. HOWEVER...IF
THE MORNING STORMS MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED THE
ADVISORY MAY NOT PAN OUT...AND CONVERSELY IF MORNING CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS REMAINS CONFINED TO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THEN THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD A BIT DURING THE DAY.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS WE REACH PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING TIME THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD
PROVIDE FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRECEDING OUR WELL ADVERTISED COOL FRONT
APPROACHING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION BELOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION OF
THIS REDEVELOPMENT CONTINGENT ON THE PATH MORNING STORMS
TAKE...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WILL
CERTAINLY BE WITHIN A FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT AS
OUTLINED BY SPC PRODUCTS. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS AFTER ABOUT
22Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT AND THE CONVECTION IT WILL BRING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS ARE IN OKAY AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT WITH THE 28.00Z NAM THE SLOWEST MODEL AND NOT
INITIALIZING WELL THIS MORNING...THUS KEPT IT AS THE OUTLIER
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THIS
EVENING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN A COLD POOL. INSTABILITY IS PLENTIFUL WITH MUCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1500-3500J/KG PER GFS/ECMWF. MCS MAINTENANCE
PROBABILITY VIA THE ECMWF/GFS ARE OVER 40 PERCENT WITH GFS AS
HIGH AS 90 THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL DURING MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE CLEARING THE FORECAST
AREA B/T 06-09Z WEDNESDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS/LARGE HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE OTHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE STATE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 2 TO 2.4 INCHES. ISOLATED AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING COULD POSE AN ISSUE TONIGHT IF ANY TRAINING
OCCURS ON TOP OF THE AREAS THAT WERE HIT WITH HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING IS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SUB-ADVISORY ATTM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME
MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S BEGIN ON FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE
STATE FRIDAY BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...KEPT FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF HINTING ON A
DECENT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

WEAK BOUNDARY WITH ONGOING TSRA MAY AFFECT KFOD AND KDSM EARLY IN
THE PERIOD. APPROACHING FRONT WILL BRING BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA IN
LATER AFTERNOON AND NEAR 00Z TO SITES. HAVE INCLUDED VCTS MENTION
FOR NOW WITH UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING AND LOCATION OF TSRA. TSRA
AT SITES MAY CAUSE MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES...ALONG
WITH STRONG WINDS. BEHIND BOUNDARY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NORTH...AND WILL INCREASE BEYOND 12Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR APPANOOSE-DAVIS-
MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 281134
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH MANY CONSIDERATIONS. FIRST
AND FOREMOST...OUR MESSY CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS WE
REMAIN WITHIN THE SAME SOUPY AIRMASS THAT HAS PERSISTED THIS
WEEKEND. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY DEPICTS A LONG SQUALL LINE
STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
AHEAD OF THIS LINE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA WITHIN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME. RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF THESE SCATTERED STORMS UNTIL THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA BEING
AFFECTED. IF THE STORMS DIVE DOWN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
DEPICTED BY MESOANALYSIS THEN THEY MAY REACH SOUTHERN
IOWA...HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT IS WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE SQUALL LINE
WILL AFFECT NORTHERN IOWA...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A GRADUALLY MODIFYING
COLD POOL BY AROUND MIDDAY.

IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...IF CONVECTION REALLY DOES REMAIN
CONFINED TO OUR NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S OR SO. THIS WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES...AND JUSTIFIES THE
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL HEAT ADVISORY AGAINST THOSE ALREADY ISSUED BY
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AGAINST OUR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER. HOWEVER...IF
THE MORNING STORMS MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED THE
ADVISORY MAY NOT PAN OUT...AND CONVERSELY IF MORNING CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS REMAINS CONFINED TO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THEN THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD A BIT DURING THE DAY.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS WE REACH PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING TIME THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD
PROVIDE FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRECEDING OUR WELL ADVERTISED COOL FRONT
APPROACHING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION BELOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION OF
THIS REDEVELOPMENT CONTINGENT ON THE PATH MORNING STORMS
TAKE...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WILL
CERTAINLY BE WITHIN A FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT AS
OUTLINED BY SPC PRODUCTS. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS AFTER ABOUT
22Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT AND THE CONVECTION IT WILL BRING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS ARE IN OKAY AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT WITH THE 28.00Z NAM THE SLOWEST MODEL AND NOT
INITIALIZING WELL THIS MORNING...THUS KEPT IT AS THE OUTLIER
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THIS
EVENING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN A COLD POOL. INSTABILITY IS PLENTIFUL WITH MUCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1500-3500J/KG PER GFS/ECMWF. MCS MAINTENANCE
PROBABILITY VIA THE ECMWF/GFS ARE OVER 40 PERCENT WITH GFS AS
HIGH AS 90 THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL DURING MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE CLEARING THE FORECAST
AREA B/T 06-09Z WEDNESDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS/LARGE HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE OTHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE STATE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 2 TO 2.4 INCHES. ISOLATED AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING COULD POSE AN ISSUE TONIGHT IF ANY TRAINING
OCCURS ON TOP OF THE AREAS THAT WERE HIT WITH HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING IS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SUB-ADVISORY ATTM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME
MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S BEGIN ON FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE
STATE FRIDAY BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...KEPT FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF HINTING ON A
DECENT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA AT INTERVALS TODAY. HAVE MADE BEST ATTEMPT TO
TIME/LOCATE THESE STORMS IN THE TAFS...BUT AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED. THE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
SUNSET...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BEYOND.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 281134
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH MANY CONSIDERATIONS. FIRST
AND FOREMOST...OUR MESSY CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS WE
REMAIN WITHIN THE SAME SOUPY AIRMASS THAT HAS PERSISTED THIS
WEEKEND. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY DEPICTS A LONG SQUALL LINE
STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
AHEAD OF THIS LINE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA WITHIN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME. RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF THESE SCATTERED STORMS UNTIL THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA BEING
AFFECTED. IF THE STORMS DIVE DOWN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
DEPICTED BY MESOANALYSIS THEN THEY MAY REACH SOUTHERN
IOWA...HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT IS WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE SQUALL LINE
WILL AFFECT NORTHERN IOWA...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A GRADUALLY MODIFYING
COLD POOL BY AROUND MIDDAY.

IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...IF CONVECTION REALLY DOES REMAIN
CONFINED TO OUR NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S OR SO. THIS WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES...AND JUSTIFIES THE
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL HEAT ADVISORY AGAINST THOSE ALREADY ISSUED BY
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AGAINST OUR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER. HOWEVER...IF
THE MORNING STORMS MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED THE
ADVISORY MAY NOT PAN OUT...AND CONVERSELY IF MORNING CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS REMAINS CONFINED TO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THEN THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD A BIT DURING THE DAY.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS WE REACH PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING TIME THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD
PROVIDE FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRECEDING OUR WELL ADVERTISED COOL FRONT
APPROACHING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION BELOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION OF
THIS REDEVELOPMENT CONTINGENT ON THE PATH MORNING STORMS
TAKE...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WILL
CERTAINLY BE WITHIN A FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT AS
OUTLINED BY SPC PRODUCTS. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS AFTER ABOUT
22Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT AND THE CONVECTION IT WILL BRING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS ARE IN OKAY AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT WITH THE 28.00Z NAM THE SLOWEST MODEL AND NOT
INITIALIZING WELL THIS MORNING...THUS KEPT IT AS THE OUTLIER
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THIS
EVENING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN A COLD POOL. INSTABILITY IS PLENTIFUL WITH MUCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1500-3500J/KG PER GFS/ECMWF. MCS MAINTENANCE
PROBABILITY VIA THE ECMWF/GFS ARE OVER 40 PERCENT WITH GFS AS
HIGH AS 90 THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL DURING MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE CLEARING THE FORECAST
AREA B/T 06-09Z WEDNESDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS/LARGE HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE OTHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE STATE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 2 TO 2.4 INCHES. ISOLATED AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING COULD POSE AN ISSUE TONIGHT IF ANY TRAINING
OCCURS ON TOP OF THE AREAS THAT WERE HIT WITH HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING IS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SUB-ADVISORY ATTM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME
MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S BEGIN ON FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE
STATE FRIDAY BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...KEPT FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF HINTING ON A
DECENT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA AT INTERVALS TODAY. HAVE MADE BEST ATTEMPT TO
TIME/LOCATE THESE STORMS IN THE TAFS...BUT AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED. THE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
SUNSET...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BEYOND.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 281134
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH MANY CONSIDERATIONS. FIRST
AND FOREMOST...OUR MESSY CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS WE
REMAIN WITHIN THE SAME SOUPY AIRMASS THAT HAS PERSISTED THIS
WEEKEND. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY DEPICTS A LONG SQUALL LINE
STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
AHEAD OF THIS LINE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA WITHIN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME. RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF THESE SCATTERED STORMS UNTIL THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA BEING
AFFECTED. IF THE STORMS DIVE DOWN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
DEPICTED BY MESOANALYSIS THEN THEY MAY REACH SOUTHERN
IOWA...HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT IS WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE SQUALL LINE
WILL AFFECT NORTHERN IOWA...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A GRADUALLY MODIFYING
COLD POOL BY AROUND MIDDAY.

IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...IF CONVECTION REALLY DOES REMAIN
CONFINED TO OUR NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S OR SO. THIS WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES...AND JUSTIFIES THE
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL HEAT ADVISORY AGAINST THOSE ALREADY ISSUED BY
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AGAINST OUR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER. HOWEVER...IF
THE MORNING STORMS MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED THE
ADVISORY MAY NOT PAN OUT...AND CONVERSELY IF MORNING CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS REMAINS CONFINED TO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THEN THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD A BIT DURING THE DAY.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS WE REACH PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING TIME THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD
PROVIDE FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRECEDING OUR WELL ADVERTISED COOL FRONT
APPROACHING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION BELOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION OF
THIS REDEVELOPMENT CONTINGENT ON THE PATH MORNING STORMS
TAKE...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WILL
CERTAINLY BE WITHIN A FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT AS
OUTLINED BY SPC PRODUCTS. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS AFTER ABOUT
22Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT AND THE CONVECTION IT WILL BRING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS ARE IN OKAY AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT WITH THE 28.00Z NAM THE SLOWEST MODEL AND NOT
INITIALIZING WELL THIS MORNING...THUS KEPT IT AS THE OUTLIER
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THIS
EVENING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN A COLD POOL. INSTABILITY IS PLENTIFUL WITH MUCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1500-3500J/KG PER GFS/ECMWF. MCS MAINTENANCE
PROBABILITY VIA THE ECMWF/GFS ARE OVER 40 PERCENT WITH GFS AS
HIGH AS 90 THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL DURING MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE CLEARING THE FORECAST
AREA B/T 06-09Z WEDNESDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS/LARGE HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE OTHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE STATE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 2 TO 2.4 INCHES. ISOLATED AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING COULD POSE AN ISSUE TONIGHT IF ANY TRAINING
OCCURS ON TOP OF THE AREAS THAT WERE HIT WITH HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING IS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SUB-ADVISORY ATTM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME
MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S BEGIN ON FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE
STATE FRIDAY BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...KEPT FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF HINTING ON A
DECENT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA AT INTERVALS TODAY. HAVE MADE BEST ATTEMPT TO
TIME/LOCATE THESE STORMS IN THE TAFS...BUT AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED. THE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
SUNSET...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BEYOND.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 281134
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
634 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH MANY CONSIDERATIONS. FIRST
AND FOREMOST...OUR MESSY CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS WE
REMAIN WITHIN THE SAME SOUPY AIRMASS THAT HAS PERSISTED THIS
WEEKEND. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY DEPICTS A LONG SQUALL LINE
STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
AHEAD OF THIS LINE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA WITHIN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME. RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF THESE SCATTERED STORMS UNTIL THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA BEING
AFFECTED. IF THE STORMS DIVE DOWN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
DEPICTED BY MESOANALYSIS THEN THEY MAY REACH SOUTHERN
IOWA...HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT IS WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE SQUALL LINE
WILL AFFECT NORTHERN IOWA...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A GRADUALLY MODIFYING
COLD POOL BY AROUND MIDDAY.

IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...IF CONVECTION REALLY DOES REMAIN
CONFINED TO OUR NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S OR SO. THIS WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES...AND JUSTIFIES THE
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL HEAT ADVISORY AGAINST THOSE ALREADY ISSUED BY
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AGAINST OUR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER. HOWEVER...IF
THE MORNING STORMS MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED THE
ADVISORY MAY NOT PAN OUT...AND CONVERSELY IF MORNING CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS REMAINS CONFINED TO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THEN THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD A BIT DURING THE DAY.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS WE REACH PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING TIME THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD
PROVIDE FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRECEDING OUR WELL ADVERTISED COOL FRONT
APPROACHING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION BELOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION OF
THIS REDEVELOPMENT CONTINGENT ON THE PATH MORNING STORMS
TAKE...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WILL
CERTAINLY BE WITHIN A FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT AS
OUTLINED BY SPC PRODUCTS. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS AFTER ABOUT
22Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT AND THE CONVECTION IT WILL BRING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS ARE IN OKAY AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT WITH THE 28.00Z NAM THE SLOWEST MODEL AND NOT
INITIALIZING WELL THIS MORNING...THUS KEPT IT AS THE OUTLIER
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THIS
EVENING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN A COLD POOL. INSTABILITY IS PLENTIFUL WITH MUCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1500-3500J/KG PER GFS/ECMWF. MCS MAINTENANCE
PROBABILITY VIA THE ECMWF/GFS ARE OVER 40 PERCENT WITH GFS AS
HIGH AS 90 THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL DURING MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE CLEARING THE FORECAST
AREA B/T 06-09Z WEDNESDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS/LARGE HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE OTHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE STATE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 2 TO 2.4 INCHES. ISOLATED AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING COULD POSE AN ISSUE TONIGHT IF ANY TRAINING
OCCURS ON TOP OF THE AREAS THAT WERE HIT WITH HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING IS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SUB-ADVISORY ATTM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME
MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S BEGIN ON FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE
STATE FRIDAY BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...KEPT FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF HINTING ON A
DECENT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...BUT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND THEIR ASSOCIATED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL
AFFECT THE AREA AT INTERVALS TODAY. HAVE MADE BEST ATTEMPT TO
TIME/LOCATE THESE STORMS IN THE TAFS...BUT AMENDMENTS WILL LIKELY
BE NEEDED. THE STORMS SHOULD CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
SUNSET...YIELDING VFR CONDITIONS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING AND BEYOND.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280858
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH MANY CONSIDERATIONS. FIRST
AND FOREMOST...OUR MESSY CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS WE
REMAIN WITHIN THE SAME SOUPY AIRMASS THAT HAS PERSISTED THIS
WEEKEND. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY DEPICTS A LONG SQUALL LINE
STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
AHEAD OF THIS LINE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA WITHIN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME. RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF THESE SCATTERED STORMS UNTIL THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA BEING
AFFECTED. IF THE STORMS DIVE DOWN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
DEPICTED BY MESOANALYSIS THEN THEY MAY REACH SOUTHERN
IOWA...HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT IS WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE SQUALL LINE
WILL AFFECT NORTHERN IOWA...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A GRADUALLY MODIFYING
COLD POOL BY AROUND MIDDAY.

IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...IF CONVECTION REALLY DOES REMAIN
CONFINED TO OUR NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S OR SO. THIS WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES...AND JUSTIFIES THE
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL HEAT ADVISORY AGAINST THOSE ALREADY ISSUED BY
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AGAINST OUR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER. HOWEVER...IF
THE MORNING STORMS MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED THE
ADVISORY MAY NOT PAN OUT...AND CONVERSELY IF MORNING CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS REMAINS CONFINED TO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THEN THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD A BIT DURING THE DAY.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS WE REACH PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING TIME THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD
PROVIDE FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRECEDING OUR WELL ADVERTISED COOL FRONT
APPROACHING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION BELOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION OF
THIS REDEVELOPMENT CONTINGENT ON THE PATH MORNING STORMS
TAKE...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WILL
CERTAINLY BE WITHIN A FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT AS
OUTLINED BY SPC PRODUCTS. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS AFTER ABOUT
22Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT AND THE CONVECTION IT WILL BRING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS ARE IN OKAY AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT WITH THE 28.00Z NAM THE SLOWEST MODEL AND NOT
INITIALIZING WELL THIS MORNING...THUS KEPT IT AS THE OUTLIER
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THIS
EVENING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN A COLD POOL. INSTABILITY IS PLENTIFUL WITH MUCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1500-3500J/KG PER GFS/ECMWF. MCS MAINTENANCE
PROBABILITY VIA THE ECMWF/GFS ARE OVER 40 PERCENT WITH GFS AS
HIGH AS 90 THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL DURING MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE CLEARING THE FORECAST
AREA B/T 06-09Z WEDNESDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS/LARGE HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE OTHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE STATE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 2 TO 2.4 INCHES. ISOLATED AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING COULD POSE AN ISSUE TONIGHT IF ANY TRAINING
OCCURS ON TOP OF THE AREAS THAT WERE HIT WITH HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING IS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SUB-ADVISORY ATTM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME
MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S BEGIN ON FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE
STATE FRIDAY BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...KEPT FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF HINTING ON A
DECENT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WARM FRONT ALOFT/SFC JUST TO WEST OF AREA THIS EVENING. MCS OVER
THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND EAST/SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
09-13Z WITH AREA OF LIFT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY 09-10Z AND A
GRADUAL EXPANSION FROM WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL BY 10-12Z. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL IN TAFS WITH UPDATED HRRR MODEL RUNS...SOUTHERN
SITES AT KDSM/KOTM SHOULD SEE LESS DURATION OF THUNDER BETWEEN
11-15Z THAN NORTH. AS MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM 20-00Z LINGERING AFT
29/00Z OVER THE EAST. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS STILL MODEST...SO
HAVE KEPT VICINITY WORDING FOR NOW./REV


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 280858
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

A VERY COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH MANY CONSIDERATIONS. FIRST
AND FOREMOST...OUR MESSY CONVECTIVE PATTERN CONTINUES AS WE
REMAIN WITHIN THE SAME SOUPY AIRMASS THAT HAS PERSISTED THIS
WEEKEND. REGIONAL RADAR CURRENTLY DEPICTS A LONG SQUALL LINE
STRETCHING DOWN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO NORTHEASTERN
NEBRASKA...MOVING STEADILY EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHWESTERN IOWA.
AHEAD OF THIS LINE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS
ABOUT THE NORTHERN HALF OF IOWA WITHIN A BROAD WARM AIR ADVECTION
REGIME. RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL FORECASTS SUPPORT A
CONTINUATION OF THESE SCATTERED STORMS UNTIL THE SQUALL LINE MOVES
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES LATER THIS MORNING. THERE IS LOWER
CONFIDENCE IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA BEING
AFFECTED. IF THE STORMS DIVE DOWN THE INSTABILITY GRADIENT
DEPICTED BY MESOANALYSIS THEN THEY MAY REACH SOUTHERN
IOWA...HOWEVER WARMER AIR ALOFT IS WORKING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT LACK OF CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEVELOPMENT IN THAT AREA. IT IS MORE LIKELY THAT THE SQUALL LINE
WILL AFFECT NORTHERN IOWA...LEAVING IN ITS WAKE SOME DEBRIS CLOUDS
AND REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS WELL AS A GRADUALLY MODIFYING
COLD POOL BY AROUND MIDDAY.

IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...IF CONVECTION REALLY DOES REMAIN
CONFINED TO OUR NORTH...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S
BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S OR SO. THIS WILL
PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES NEAR 105 DEGREES...AND JUSTIFIES THE
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL HEAT ADVISORY AGAINST THOSE ALREADY ISSUED BY
NEIGHBORING OFFICES AGAINST OUR SOUTHEASTERN CORNER. HOWEVER...IF
THE MORNING STORMS MAKE IT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EXPECTED THE
ADVISORY MAY NOT PAN OUT...AND CONVERSELY IF MORNING CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS REMAINS CONFINED TO NORTH OF HIGHWAY 30 THEN THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED NORTHWARD A BIT DURING THE DAY.

BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS WE REACH PEAK DIURNAL
HEATING TIME THE AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD
PROVIDE FOCI FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE
VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS PRECEDING OUR WELL ADVERTISED COOL FRONT
APPROACHING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AS DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM
SECTION BELOW. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING LOCATION OF
THIS REDEVELOPMENT CONTINGENT ON THE PATH MORNING STORMS
TAKE...BUT ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP LATE IN THE DAY WILL
CERTAINLY BE WITHIN A FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER ENVIRONMENT AS
OUTLINED BY SPC PRODUCTS. HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS AFTER ABOUT
22Z TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON COLD FRONT TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE STATE TONIGHT AND THE CONVECTION IT WILL BRING TO THE FORECAST
AREA. MODELS ARE IN OKAY AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE COLD
FRONT TONIGHT WITH THE 28.00Z NAM THE SLOWEST MODEL AND NOT
INITIALIZING WELL THIS MORNING...THUS KEPT IT AS THE OUTLIER
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND LEANED TOWARD THE GFS/ECMWF.

TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING THIS
EVENING WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THE COLD FRONT ENTERING THE
WESTERN TO NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AHEAD
OF THE FRONT IS MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL BUT STRONG ENOUGH TO
SUSTAIN A COLD POOL. INSTABILITY IS PLENTIFUL WITH MUCAPE VALUES
RANGING FROM 1500-3500J/KG PER GFS/ECMWF. MCS MAINTENANCE
PROBABILITY VIA THE ECMWF/GFS ARE OVER 40 PERCENT WITH GFS AS
HIGH AS 90 THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE STORMS WILL BE MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL DURING MUCH OF THE EVENING BEFORE CLEARING THE FORECAST
AREA B/T 06-09Z WEDNESDAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IS WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW STORMS PRODUCING STRONG
WINDS/LARGE HAIL EARLY IN THE EVENING WITH THE SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE. THE OTHER THREAT IS HEAVY RAIN WITH STRONG
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS AND THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE STATE
AHEAD OF THE FRONT COMBINED WITH THE DEEP WARM LAYER CLOUD DEPTHS
AND PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 2 TO 2.4 INCHES. ISOLATED AREAS
OF FLASH FLOODING COULD POSE AN ISSUE TONIGHT IF ANY TRAINING
OCCURS ON TOP OF THE AREAS THAT WERE HIT WITH HEAVY RAIN MONDAY
AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

COLD FRONT WILL BRING SOME MUCH NEEDED COOLER AND DRIER AIR INTO
THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MIXING IS
ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...SUB-ADVISORY ATTM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND A LARGE UPPER
RIDGE BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. SOME
MODERATING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOWER 90S BEGIN ON FRIDAY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK SHORTWAVE CUTS ACROSS THE
STATE FRIDAY BUT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND FORCING...KEPT FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. LATE IN THE WEEKEND...THE GFS AND ECMWF HINTING ON A
DECENT COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...THEN ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WARM FRONT ALOFT/SFC JUST TO WEST OF AREA THIS EVENING. MCS OVER
THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND EAST/SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
09-13Z WITH AREA OF LIFT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY 09-10Z AND A
GRADUAL EXPANSION FROM WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL BY 10-12Z. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL IN TAFS WITH UPDATED HRRR MODEL RUNS...SOUTHERN
SITES AT KDSM/KOTM SHOULD SEE LESS DURATION OF THUNDER BETWEEN
11-15Z THAN NORTH. AS MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM 20-00Z LINGERING AFT
29/00Z OVER THE EAST. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS STILL MODEST...SO
HAVE KEPT VICINITY WORDING FOR NOW./REV


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
APPANOOSE-DAVIS-MAHASKA-MONROE-WAPELLO-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280433
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1133 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION TRENDS.
ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND DROP SOUTHEAST.
IN ADDITION...CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST.
EXPECT BEST CHANCE TO BE FURTHER WEST INTO EASTERN IOWA ALONG
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY SPARK
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPPING ACROSS
THIS AREA...AND HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA
DOWN...EXPECTING CAP TO HOLD.

NEXT FOCUS WILL BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVERNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES
NORTH AHEAD OF BOUNDARY IN THE DAKOTAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FASTER
WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. WILL BE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.8
INCHES WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS. GIVEN ANTICIPATED BEST FORCING FURTHER NORTH OF IOWA...AND
QUICK PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM...WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES OUT
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WE HAVE AN ACTIVE DAY LINED UP FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEANING FCST PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA FROM NW TO SE DURING TUESDAY. THREE MAJOR CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY ARE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...AND NEAR HEADLINE HEAT INDEX VALUES.

FOR TUE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...PWATS IN THE 2.1 TO 2.25 INCH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NE CWA...ARE AROUND +3 TO +4 STD DEV.
NAM HAS PWATS APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES. IN TERMS OF MOISTURE AND
DWPTS...NAM ON THE HIGHER END AM LEANING TOWARDS IT SINCE IT IS
INITIALIZING WELL...PLUS THE TIME OF YEAR SUPPORTS MOIST. THE GFS IS
TOO DRY PER USUAL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA 30 KT LLJ AND
PLENTY OF SFC MOISTURE CONV WITH COLD FROPA. MIXING RATIOS ABOVE 8
G/KG PLUS 0-6 KM MUCAPES ABOVE 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT UPWARD
MOISTURE FLUX. TIME OF YEAR WOULD TYPICALLY BE A HUGE NEGATIVE FOR
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY LEAVE SOME AREAS FAIRLY
SATURATED.

FOR TUE SVR WX POTENTIAL...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
SLIGHT TOR THREAT. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE SO HIGH...UPDRAFTS WILL
LIKELY BE WATER LOADED...MAKING SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION DIFFICULT.
BOTH GFS AND NAM PICK UP ON A POCKET OF 200 M2/S2 0 TO 3 KM HELICITY
WITH THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. LCL HEIGHTS WELL BELOW 1000M. IN
SHORT...NOT AN OUTBREAK ENVIRONMENT...BUT WORTH WATCHING.

FOR HEAT POTENTIAL...WENT WITHOUT ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. MORNING
PRECIP/CLOUD COVER PLUS TIMING OF BOUNDARY ARRIVAL WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS DOWN VERSUS FCST IN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. REGARDLESS OF SFC
TEMPS...WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW TRIPLE DIGITS IN AND SE OF THE DSM METRO. OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY
NEED TO ISSUE ADVISORY IN OUR SE.

THE FRONT AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. A SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL HELP KEEP WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY QUIET AND DRY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO THE 14C TO 18C RANGE
WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO THE LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK...WE RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW. MID
LEVEL WINDS ARE ABOUT +1 TO +2 STD DEV FROM THE WEST. GIVEN ALL OF
THIS...LEFT BROAD-BRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
ANTICIPATION OF SHORTWAVE TRAIN EXPECTED TO START CHUGGING AGAIN.
850MB TEMPS RETURN TO THE 19C TO 22C RANGE WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE HIGHS CLOSE TO
CLIMO...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WARM FRONT ALOFT/SFC JUST TO WEST OF AREA THIS EVENING. MCS OVER
THE DAKOTAS/NEBRASKA WILL BEGIN TO EXPAND EAST/SOUTHEAST BETWEEN
09-13Z WITH AREA OF LIFT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL IOWA BY 09-10Z AND A
GRADUAL EXPANSION FROM WEST CENTRAL/NORTH CENTRAL BY 10-12Z. HAVE
DELAYED ARRIVAL IN TAFS WITH UPDATED HRRR MODEL RUNS...SOUTHERN
SITES AT KDSM/KOTM SHOULD SEE LESS DURATION OF THUNDER BETWEEN
11-15Z THAN NORTH. AS MAIN COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA...
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS IS EXPECTED FROM 20-00Z LINGERING AFT
29/00Z OVER THE EAST. CONFIDENCE ON TIMING IS STILL MODEST...SO
HAVE KEPT VICINITY WORDING FOR NOW./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB/KA
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 272347
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION TRENDS.
ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND DROP SOUTHEAST.
IN ADDITION...CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST.
EXPECT BEST CHANCE TO BE FURTHER WEST INTO EASTERN IOWA ALONG
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY SPARK
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPPING ACROSS
THIS AREA...AND HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA
DOWN...EXPECTING CAP TO HOLD.

NEXT FOCUS WILL BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVERNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES
NORTH AHEAD OF BOUNDARY IN THE DAKOTAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FASTER
WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. WILL BE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.8
INCHES WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS. GIVEN ANTICIPATED BEST FORCING FURTHER NORTH OF IOWA...AND
QUICK PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM...WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES OUT
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WE HAVE AN ACTIVE DAY LINED UP FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEANING FCST PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA FROM NW TO SE DURING TUESDAY. THREE MAJOR CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY ARE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...AND NEAR HEADLINE HEAT INDEX VALUES.

FOR TUE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...PWATS IN THE 2.1 TO 2.25 INCH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NE CWA...ARE AROUND +3 TO +4 STD DEV.
NAM HAS PWATS APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES. IN TERMS OF MOISTURE AND
DWPTS...NAM ON THE HIGHER END AM LEANING TOWARDS IT SINCE IT IS
INITIALIZING WELL...PLUS THE TIME OF YEAR SUPPORTS MOIST. THE GFS IS
TOO DRY PER USUAL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA 30 KT LLJ AND
PLENTY OF SFC MOISTURE CONV WITH COLD FROPA. MIXING RATIOS ABOVE 8
G/KG PLUS 0-6 KM MUCAPES ABOVE 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT UPWARD
MOISTURE FLUX. TIME OF YEAR WOULD TYPICALLY BE A HUGE NEGATIVE FOR
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY LEAVE SOME AREAS FAIRLY
SATURATED.

FOR TUE SVR WX POTENTIAL...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
SLIGHT TOR THREAT. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE SO HIGH...UPDRAFTS WILL
LIKELY BE WATER LOADED...MAKING SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION DIFFICULT.
BOTH GFS AND NAM PICK UP ON A POCKET OF 200 M2/S2 0 TO 3 KM HELICITY
WITH THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. LCL HEIGHTS WELL BELOW 1000M. IN
SHORT...NOT AN OUTBREAK ENVIRONMENT...BUT WORTH WATCHING.

FOR HEAT POTENTIAL...WENT WITHOUT ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. MORNING
PRECIP/CLOUD COVER PLUS TIMING OF BOUNDARY ARRIVAL WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS DOWN VERSUS FCST IN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. REGARDLESS OF SFC
TEMPS...WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW TRIPLE DIGITS IN AND SE OF THE DSM METRO. OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY
NEED TO ISSUE ADVISORY IN OUR SE.

THE FRONT AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. A SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL HELP KEEP WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY QUIET AND DRY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO THE 14C TO 18C RANGE
WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO THE LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK...WE RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW. MID
LEVEL WINDS ARE ABOUT +1 TO +2 STD DEV FROM THE WEST. GIVEN ALL OF
THIS...LEFT BROAD-BRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
ANTICIPATION OF SHORTWAVE TRAIN EXPECTED TO START CHUGGING AGAIN.
850MB TEMPS RETURN TO THE 19C TO 22C RANGE WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE HIGHS CLOSE TO
CLIMO...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS...FIRST MCS EXITING THE REGION
NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH A BREAK IN THE TSRA THROUGH 04-05Z.
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT AFT 04-05Z IN ZONE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH POSSIBLE MCS AGAIN FROM NEBRASKA MOVING
THROUGH REGION BY 14-15Z. WITH APPROACH OF FRONT ON TUESDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM
18Z-00Z ESPECIALLY NORTH SITES AT KFOD...KMCW...KALO. SOME HINT
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LINGER OVER THE EAST THROUGH 06Z.
WILL REEVALUATE FOR 06Z PACKAGE. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB/KA
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 272347
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION TRENDS.
ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND DROP SOUTHEAST.
IN ADDITION...CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST.
EXPECT BEST CHANCE TO BE FURTHER WEST INTO EASTERN IOWA ALONG
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY SPARK
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPPING ACROSS
THIS AREA...AND HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA
DOWN...EXPECTING CAP TO HOLD.

NEXT FOCUS WILL BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVERNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES
NORTH AHEAD OF BOUNDARY IN THE DAKOTAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FASTER
WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. WILL BE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.8
INCHES WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS. GIVEN ANTICIPATED BEST FORCING FURTHER NORTH OF IOWA...AND
QUICK PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM...WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES OUT
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WE HAVE AN ACTIVE DAY LINED UP FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEANING FCST PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA FROM NW TO SE DURING TUESDAY. THREE MAJOR CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY ARE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...AND NEAR HEADLINE HEAT INDEX VALUES.

FOR TUE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...PWATS IN THE 2.1 TO 2.25 INCH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NE CWA...ARE AROUND +3 TO +4 STD DEV.
NAM HAS PWATS APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES. IN TERMS OF MOISTURE AND
DWPTS...NAM ON THE HIGHER END AM LEANING TOWARDS IT SINCE IT IS
INITIALIZING WELL...PLUS THE TIME OF YEAR SUPPORTS MOIST. THE GFS IS
TOO DRY PER USUAL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA 30 KT LLJ AND
PLENTY OF SFC MOISTURE CONV WITH COLD FROPA. MIXING RATIOS ABOVE 8
G/KG PLUS 0-6 KM MUCAPES ABOVE 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT UPWARD
MOISTURE FLUX. TIME OF YEAR WOULD TYPICALLY BE A HUGE NEGATIVE FOR
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY LEAVE SOME AREAS FAIRLY
SATURATED.

FOR TUE SVR WX POTENTIAL...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
SLIGHT TOR THREAT. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE SO HIGH...UPDRAFTS WILL
LIKELY BE WATER LOADED...MAKING SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION DIFFICULT.
BOTH GFS AND NAM PICK UP ON A POCKET OF 200 M2/S2 0 TO 3 KM HELICITY
WITH THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. LCL HEIGHTS WELL BELOW 1000M. IN
SHORT...NOT AN OUTBREAK ENVIRONMENT...BUT WORTH WATCHING.

FOR HEAT POTENTIAL...WENT WITHOUT ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. MORNING
PRECIP/CLOUD COVER PLUS TIMING OF BOUNDARY ARRIVAL WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS DOWN VERSUS FCST IN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. REGARDLESS OF SFC
TEMPS...WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW TRIPLE DIGITS IN AND SE OF THE DSM METRO. OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY
NEED TO ISSUE ADVISORY IN OUR SE.

THE FRONT AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. A SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL HELP KEEP WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY QUIET AND DRY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO THE 14C TO 18C RANGE
WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO THE LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK...WE RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW. MID
LEVEL WINDS ARE ABOUT +1 TO +2 STD DEV FROM THE WEST. GIVEN ALL OF
THIS...LEFT BROAD-BRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
ANTICIPATION OF SHORTWAVE TRAIN EXPECTED TO START CHUGGING AGAIN.
850MB TEMPS RETURN TO THE 19C TO 22C RANGE WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE HIGHS CLOSE TO
CLIMO...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS...FIRST MCS EXITING THE REGION
NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH A BREAK IN THE TSRA THROUGH 04-05Z.
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT AFT 04-05Z IN ZONE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH POSSIBLE MCS AGAIN FROM NEBRASKA MOVING
THROUGH REGION BY 14-15Z. WITH APPROACH OF FRONT ON TUESDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM
18Z-00Z ESPECIALLY NORTH SITES AT KFOD...KMCW...KALO. SOME HINT
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LINGER OVER THE EAST THROUGH 06Z.
WILL REEVALUATE FOR 06Z PACKAGE. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB/KA
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 272347
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION TRENDS.
ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND DROP SOUTHEAST.
IN ADDITION...CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST.
EXPECT BEST CHANCE TO BE FURTHER WEST INTO EASTERN IOWA ALONG
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY SPARK
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPPING ACROSS
THIS AREA...AND HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA
DOWN...EXPECTING CAP TO HOLD.

NEXT FOCUS WILL BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVERNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES
NORTH AHEAD OF BOUNDARY IN THE DAKOTAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FASTER
WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. WILL BE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.8
INCHES WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS. GIVEN ANTICIPATED BEST FORCING FURTHER NORTH OF IOWA...AND
QUICK PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM...WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES OUT
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WE HAVE AN ACTIVE DAY LINED UP FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEANING FCST PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA FROM NW TO SE DURING TUESDAY. THREE MAJOR CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY ARE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...AND NEAR HEADLINE HEAT INDEX VALUES.

FOR TUE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...PWATS IN THE 2.1 TO 2.25 INCH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NE CWA...ARE AROUND +3 TO +4 STD DEV.
NAM HAS PWATS APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES. IN TERMS OF MOISTURE AND
DWPTS...NAM ON THE HIGHER END AM LEANING TOWARDS IT SINCE IT IS
INITIALIZING WELL...PLUS THE TIME OF YEAR SUPPORTS MOIST. THE GFS IS
TOO DRY PER USUAL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA 30 KT LLJ AND
PLENTY OF SFC MOISTURE CONV WITH COLD FROPA. MIXING RATIOS ABOVE 8
G/KG PLUS 0-6 KM MUCAPES ABOVE 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT UPWARD
MOISTURE FLUX. TIME OF YEAR WOULD TYPICALLY BE A HUGE NEGATIVE FOR
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY LEAVE SOME AREAS FAIRLY
SATURATED.

FOR TUE SVR WX POTENTIAL...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
SLIGHT TOR THREAT. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE SO HIGH...UPDRAFTS WILL
LIKELY BE WATER LOADED...MAKING SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION DIFFICULT.
BOTH GFS AND NAM PICK UP ON A POCKET OF 200 M2/S2 0 TO 3 KM HELICITY
WITH THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. LCL HEIGHTS WELL BELOW 1000M. IN
SHORT...NOT AN OUTBREAK ENVIRONMENT...BUT WORTH WATCHING.

FOR HEAT POTENTIAL...WENT WITHOUT ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. MORNING
PRECIP/CLOUD COVER PLUS TIMING OF BOUNDARY ARRIVAL WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS DOWN VERSUS FCST IN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. REGARDLESS OF SFC
TEMPS...WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW TRIPLE DIGITS IN AND SE OF THE DSM METRO. OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY
NEED TO ISSUE ADVISORY IN OUR SE.

THE FRONT AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. A SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL HELP KEEP WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY QUIET AND DRY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO THE 14C TO 18C RANGE
WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO THE LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK...WE RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW. MID
LEVEL WINDS ARE ABOUT +1 TO +2 STD DEV FROM THE WEST. GIVEN ALL OF
THIS...LEFT BROAD-BRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
ANTICIPATION OF SHORTWAVE TRAIN EXPECTED TO START CHUGGING AGAIN.
850MB TEMPS RETURN TO THE 19C TO 22C RANGE WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE HIGHS CLOSE TO
CLIMO...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS...FIRST MCS EXITING THE REGION
NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH A BREAK IN THE TSRA THROUGH 04-05Z.
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT AFT 04-05Z IN ZONE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH POSSIBLE MCS AGAIN FROM NEBRASKA MOVING
THROUGH REGION BY 14-15Z. WITH APPROACH OF FRONT ON TUESDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM
18Z-00Z ESPECIALLY NORTH SITES AT KFOD...KMCW...KALO. SOME HINT
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LINGER OVER THE EAST THROUGH 06Z.
WILL REEVALUATE FOR 06Z PACKAGE. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB/KA
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 272347
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION TRENDS.
ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND DROP SOUTHEAST.
IN ADDITION...CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST.
EXPECT BEST CHANCE TO BE FURTHER WEST INTO EASTERN IOWA ALONG
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY SPARK
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPPING ACROSS
THIS AREA...AND HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA
DOWN...EXPECTING CAP TO HOLD.

NEXT FOCUS WILL BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVERNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES
NORTH AHEAD OF BOUNDARY IN THE DAKOTAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FASTER
WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. WILL BE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.8
INCHES WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS. GIVEN ANTICIPATED BEST FORCING FURTHER NORTH OF IOWA...AND
QUICK PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM...WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES OUT
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WE HAVE AN ACTIVE DAY LINED UP FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEANING FCST PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA FROM NW TO SE DURING TUESDAY. THREE MAJOR CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY ARE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...AND NEAR HEADLINE HEAT INDEX VALUES.

FOR TUE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...PWATS IN THE 2.1 TO 2.25 INCH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NE CWA...ARE AROUND +3 TO +4 STD DEV.
NAM HAS PWATS APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES. IN TERMS OF MOISTURE AND
DWPTS...NAM ON THE HIGHER END AM LEANING TOWARDS IT SINCE IT IS
INITIALIZING WELL...PLUS THE TIME OF YEAR SUPPORTS MOIST. THE GFS IS
TOO DRY PER USUAL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA 30 KT LLJ AND
PLENTY OF SFC MOISTURE CONV WITH COLD FROPA. MIXING RATIOS ABOVE 8
G/KG PLUS 0-6 KM MUCAPES ABOVE 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT UPWARD
MOISTURE FLUX. TIME OF YEAR WOULD TYPICALLY BE A HUGE NEGATIVE FOR
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY LEAVE SOME AREAS FAIRLY
SATURATED.

FOR TUE SVR WX POTENTIAL...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
SLIGHT TOR THREAT. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE SO HIGH...UPDRAFTS WILL
LIKELY BE WATER LOADED...MAKING SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION DIFFICULT.
BOTH GFS AND NAM PICK UP ON A POCKET OF 200 M2/S2 0 TO 3 KM HELICITY
WITH THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. LCL HEIGHTS WELL BELOW 1000M. IN
SHORT...NOT AN OUTBREAK ENVIRONMENT...BUT WORTH WATCHING.

FOR HEAT POTENTIAL...WENT WITHOUT ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. MORNING
PRECIP/CLOUD COVER PLUS TIMING OF BOUNDARY ARRIVAL WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS DOWN VERSUS FCST IN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. REGARDLESS OF SFC
TEMPS...WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW TRIPLE DIGITS IN AND SE OF THE DSM METRO. OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY
NEED TO ISSUE ADVISORY IN OUR SE.

THE FRONT AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. A SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL HELP KEEP WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY QUIET AND DRY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO THE 14C TO 18C RANGE
WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO THE LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK...WE RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW. MID
LEVEL WINDS ARE ABOUT +1 TO +2 STD DEV FROM THE WEST. GIVEN ALL OF
THIS...LEFT BROAD-BRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
ANTICIPATION OF SHORTWAVE TRAIN EXPECTED TO START CHUGGING AGAIN.
850MB TEMPS RETURN TO THE 19C TO 22C RANGE WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE HIGHS CLOSE TO
CLIMO...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 647 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST NEXT 24 HOURS...FIRST MCS EXITING THE REGION
NOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH A BREAK IN THE TSRA THROUGH 04-05Z.
VARIOUS SOLUTIONS SHOW SOME REDEVELOPMENT AFT 04-05Z IN ZONE OF
WARM AIR ADVECTION...WITH POSSIBLE MCS AGAIN FROM NEBRASKA MOVING
THROUGH REGION BY 14-15Z. WITH APPROACH OF FRONT ON TUESDAY...
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION WITH POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS FROM
18Z-00Z ESPECIALLY NORTH SITES AT KFOD...KMCW...KALO. SOME HINT
THAT ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LINGER OVER THE EAST THROUGH 06Z.
WILL REEVALUATE FOR 06Z PACKAGE. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB/KA
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 272118
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
418 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION TRENDS.
ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND DROP SOUTHEAST.
IN ADDITION...CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST.
EXPECT BEST CHANCE TO BE FURTHER WEST INTO EASTERN IOWA ALONG
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY SPARK
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPPING ACROSS
THIS AREA...AND HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA
DOWN...EXPECTING CAP TO HOLD.

NEXT FOCUS WILL BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVERNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES
NORTH AHEAD OF BOUNDARY IN THE DAKOTAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FASTER
WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. WILL BE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.8
INCHES WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS. GIVEN ANTICIPATED BEST FORCING FURTHER NORTH OF IOWA...AND
QUICK PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM...WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES OUT
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WE HAVE AN ACTIVE DAY LINED UP FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEANING FCST PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA FROM NW TO SE DURING TUESDAY. THREE MAJOR CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY ARE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...AND NEAR HEADLINE HEAT INDEX VALUES.

FOR TUE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...PWATS IN THE 2.1 TO 2.25 INCH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NE CWA...ARE AROUND +3 TO +4 STD DEV.
NAM HAS PWATS APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES. IN TERMS OF MOISTURE AND
DWPTS...NAM ON THE HIGHER END AM LEANING TOWARDS IT SINCE IT IS
INITIALIZING WELL...PLUS THE TIME OF YEAR SUPPORTS MOIST. THE GFS IS
TOO DRY PER USUAL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA 30 KT LLJ AND
PLENTY OF SFC MOISTURE CONV WITH COLD FROPA. MIXING RATIOS ABOVE 8
G/KG PLUS 0-6 KM MUCAPES ABOVE 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT UPWARD
MOISTURE FLUX. TIME OF YEAR WOULD TYPICALLY BE A HUGE NEGATIVE FOR
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY LEAVE SOME AREAS FAIRLY
SATURATED.

FOR TUE SVR WX POTENTIAL...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
SLIGHT TOR THREAT. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE SO HIGH...UPDRAFTS WILL
LIKELY BE WATER LOADED...MAKING SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION DIFFICULT.
BOTH GFS AND NAM PICK UP ON A POCKET OF 200 M2/S2 0 TO 3 KM HELICITY
WITH THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. LCL HEIGHTS WELL BELOW 1000M. IN
SHORT...NOT AN OUTBREAK ENVIRONMENT...BUT WORTH WATCHING.

FOR HEAT POTENTIAL...WENT WITHOUT ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. MORNING
PRECIP/CLOUD COVER PLUS TIMING OF BOUNDARY ARRIVAL WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS DOWN VERSUS FCST IN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. REGARDLESS OF SFC
TEMPS...WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW TRIPLE DIGITS IN AND SE OF THE DSM METRO. OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY
NEED TO ISSUE ADVISORY IN OUR SE.

THE FRONT AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. A SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL HELP KEEP WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY QUIET AND DRY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO THE 14C TO 18C RANGE
WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO THE LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK...WE RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW. MID
LEVEL WINDS ARE ABOUT +1 TO +2 STD DEV FROM THE WEST. GIVEN ALL OF
THIS...LEFT BROAD-BRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
ANTICIPATION OF SHORTWAVE TRAIN EXPECTED TO START CHUGGING AGAIN.
850MB TEMPS RETURN TO THE 19C TO 22C RANGE WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE HIGHS CLOSE TO
CLIMO...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SITES...KDSM/KOTM...FOR
BEGINNING OF PERIOD. BEHIND SYSTEM WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS KMCW WILL LIFT. WAVE LIFTING
NORTH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN SITES NEAR
00Z...THOUGH HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT ATTM. MAY SEE MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEYOND 00Z WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTH...ALONG WITH NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA/SHRA AT SITES...AND
INCREASING WINDS.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 272118
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
418 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND PRECIPITATION TRENDS.
ONGOING CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY
TODAY WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE CONVECTIVE TRENDS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE AREA AS INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST AND DROP SOUTHEAST.
IN ADDITION...CONCERNS FOR THE AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT TO THE WEST.
EXPECT BEST CHANCE TO BE FURTHER WEST INTO EASTERN IOWA ALONG
BOUNDARY...HOWEVER...THETA-E ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
ACROSS WESTERN IOWA IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS WHICH MAY SPARK
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS. CURRENT MESO ANALYSIS SHOWS CAPPING ACROSS
THIS AREA...AND HAVE TRENDED PRECIPITATION IN THIS AREA
DOWN...EXPECTING CAP TO HOLD.

NEXT FOCUS WILL BE PRECIPITATION TRENDS OVERNIGHT AS WAVE PUSHES
NORTH AHEAD OF BOUNDARY IN THE DAKOTAS. MODELS CONTINUE TO BE FASTER
WITH THIS SOLUTION...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY. WILL BE SOME SEVERE
POTENTIAL WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH MAIN
CONCERN WILL BE WITH HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL. PWAT VALUES NEAR 1.8
INCHES WITH GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS. GIVEN ANTICIPATED BEST FORCING FURTHER NORTH OF IOWA...AND
QUICK PROGRESSION OF SYSTEM...WILL KEEP FLASH FLOOD HEADLINES OUT
FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 416 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

WE HAVE AN ACTIVE DAY LINED UP FOR TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A MUCH
MORE CLIMATOLOGICAL LEANING FCST PERIOD FOR THE REST OF THE LONG
TERM. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH
THE CWA FROM NW TO SE DURING TUESDAY. THREE MAJOR CONCERNS FOR
TUESDAY ARE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL...AND NEAR HEADLINE HEAT INDEX VALUES.

FOR TUE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL...PWATS IN THE 2.1 TO 2.25 INCH
RANGE...ESPECIALLY OVER OUR NE CWA...ARE AROUND +3 TO +4 STD DEV.
NAM HAS PWATS APPROACHING 2.5 INCHES. IN TERMS OF MOISTURE AND
DWPTS...NAM ON THE HIGHER END AM LEANING TOWARDS IT SINCE IT IS
INITIALIZING WELL...PLUS THE TIME OF YEAR SUPPORTS MOIST. THE GFS IS
TOO DRY PER USUAL. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRANSPORT VIA 30 KT LLJ AND
PLENTY OF SFC MOISTURE CONV WITH COLD FROPA. MIXING RATIOS ABOVE 8
G/KG PLUS 0-6 KM MUCAPES ABOVE 1500 J/KG WILL SUPPORT UPWARD
MOISTURE FLUX. TIME OF YEAR WOULD TYPICALLY BE A HUGE NEGATIVE FOR
FLOODING/FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. HOWEVER...SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS IN SOME LOCATIONS MAY LEAVE SOME AREAS FAIRLY
SATURATED.

FOR TUE SVR WX POTENTIAL...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
SLIGHT TOR THREAT. WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO BE SO HIGH...UPDRAFTS WILL
LIKELY BE WATER LOADED...MAKING SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION DIFFICULT.
BOTH GFS AND NAM PICK UP ON A POCKET OF 200 M2/S2 0 TO 3 KM HELICITY
WITH THE BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH. LCL HEIGHTS WELL BELOW 1000M. IN
SHORT...NOT AN OUTBREAK ENVIRONMENT...BUT WORTH WATCHING.

FOR HEAT POTENTIAL...WENT WITHOUT ANY HEADLINES FOR NOW. MORNING
PRECIP/CLOUD COVER PLUS TIMING OF BOUNDARY ARRIVAL WILL LIKELY KEEP
TEMPS DOWN VERSUS FCST IN PREVIOUS FEW DAYS. REGARDLESS OF SFC
TEMPS...WILL STILL BE HOT AND HUMID WITH SFC DWPTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE UPPER 90S TO
LOW TRIPLE DIGITS IN AND SE OF THE DSM METRO. OVERNIGHT SHIFT MAY
NEED TO ISSUE ADVISORY IN OUR SE.

THE FRONT AND ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD BE EAST OF OUR CWA BY
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. A SFC ANTICYCLONE WILL HELP KEEP WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY QUIET AND DRY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO THE 14C TO 18C RANGE
WHICH WILL HELP PUSH TEMPS DOWN TO THE LOW 80S FOR WEDNESDAY.

FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF THE WEEK...WE RETURN TO ZONAL FLOW. MID
LEVEL WINDS ARE ABOUT +1 TO +2 STD DEV FROM THE WEST. GIVEN ALL OF
THIS...LEFT BROAD-BRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN
ANTICIPATION OF SHORTWAVE TRAIN EXPECTED TO START CHUGGING AGAIN.
850MB TEMPS RETURN TO THE 19C TO 22C RANGE WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SUBSEQUENTLY...HAVE HIGHS CLOSE TO
CLIMO...IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SITES...KDSM/KOTM...FOR
BEGINNING OF PERIOD. BEHIND SYSTEM WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS KMCW WILL LIFT. WAVE LIFTING
NORTH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN SITES NEAR
00Z...THOUGH HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT ATTM. MAY SEE MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEYOND 00Z WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTH...ALONG WITH NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA/SHRA AT SITES...AND
INCREASING WINDS.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 271749
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1249 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SINCE THE ISSUANCE OF THE MORNING FORECAST THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS
SHOWED THE INSTABILITY AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY HAS
BECOME ORIENTED MORE NW/SE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.
WITH SUNRISE THERE WAS ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE GRADIENT FOR
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THEY ARE DRIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND
AS THEY MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THEY WILL DIMINISH.
STORMS SHOULD BE NORTH OF DES MOINES BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF HI-RES MODELS THAT WANT TO DEVELOP SOME STORMS IN A
CORRIDOR FROM DSM TO FOD SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED TO
ROUGHLY THAT CORRIDOR THROUGH MID MORNING AND THAT SHOULD BE MORE
THAN GENEROUS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WHICH SHOW STORMS
FALLING APART AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONCE AGAIN SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD MAKING THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY DIFFICULT. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY TODAY BUT LITTLE TO WEAK FORCING AND NO BOUNDARIES
AROUND SO THERE REALLY ISN`T ANYTHING FOR A FOCUS TO GET
CONVECTION GOING YET THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING CONVECTION TO BE
ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THEN WEAKEN IT THROUGH
MORNING. WITH THE POOR INITIALIZATION POPS WILL BE IN ERROR AS
WILL CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

PRESENTLY THE INSTABILITY AXIS LIES FROM NW MO ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SE SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST AND GOES FROM SOUTH EVENTUALLY POINTING INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS HOWEVER...CONVECTION THAT WAS ONGOING IN THAT
AREA HAS WANED OVERNIGHT. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOTED IN NE
NEBRASKA BUT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THAT INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AN A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
AND RIDE UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE WHEN OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BUT
WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY IN THE
EVENING.

THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY MAKING FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS BACK A BIT BUT EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER TEMPS
SHOULD EASILY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH 70+
DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE A MUGGY DAY TODAY. AFTER RUNNING MY
APPARENT TEMPS THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS WELL BELOW 100. AT THIS POINT A HEAT ADVISORY
IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY BECAUSE I MAY BE A LITTLE OVER
ZEALOUS ON TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL MONITOR THIS AREA
TO SEE IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE SWINGING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UP INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COOL FRONT SET TO MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT ON THE
LEADING FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...GENERATING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. FURTHER SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA WE WILL BE FURTHER DISPLACED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AND A RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING AND SURFACE FOCI FOR
CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...EXCEPT IN OUR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH WHERE WE ARE LIKELY TO BE GRAZED BY THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS SLIDING UP INTO
MINNESOTA. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH LATE NIGHT
STORMS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

AS TUESDAY DAWNS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE
DRAPED DOWN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...AND WILL BE
RELATIVELY SLOW TO ADVANCE DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DEPARTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS OUR AREA MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE
DAY...AND TO WHAT SOUTHWARD EXTENT IT MAY EXIST...WHICH WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HAVE
NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF...BUT AM HESITANT TO TAKE THEM LOWER AS CONDITIONS
WILL BE RIPE FOR A VERY HOT AND HUMID DAY IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES STILL PEAK AT AROUND 105 DEGREES IN
THESE AREAS...BUT ANY CONSIDERATION OF A HEADLINE WILL NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. AT ANY RATE...BY PEAK HEATING
TIME TUESDAY EVENING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN IOWA. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...AGAIN CONTINGENT ON ANY DAYTIME STORMS
ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS THREAT IS WELL
OUTLINED BY SPC. THE STORMS WILL ALSO ACT TO ACCELERATE THE
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CLEAR
OUT AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MISSOURI. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS
AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LOCATION TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
CLEARED THEM OUT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IOWA WILL
LIE BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR INITIALLY COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT THEN VARIABLE
TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND DESTABILIZATION OCCUR
AND A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING/LOCATION/EFFECTS OF ANY STORMS DURING
THIS TIME UNTIL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OR LATER GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY OF PROGNOSTIC MODELS IN PREDICTING SUCH SUBTLE IMPULSES
MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SITES...KDSM/KOTM...FOR
BEGINNING OF PERIOD. BEHIND SYSTEM WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS KMCW WILL LIFT. WAVE LIFTING
NORTH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN SITES NEAR
00Z...THOUGH HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT ATTM. MAY SEE MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEYOND 00Z WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTH...ALONG WITH NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA/SHRA AT SITES...AND
INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 271749
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1249 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SINCE THE ISSUANCE OF THE MORNING FORECAST THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS
SHOWED THE INSTABILITY AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY HAS
BECOME ORIENTED MORE NW/SE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.
WITH SUNRISE THERE WAS ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE GRADIENT FOR
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THEY ARE DRIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND
AS THEY MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THEY WILL DIMINISH.
STORMS SHOULD BE NORTH OF DES MOINES BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF HI-RES MODELS THAT WANT TO DEVELOP SOME STORMS IN A
CORRIDOR FROM DSM TO FOD SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED TO
ROUGHLY THAT CORRIDOR THROUGH MID MORNING AND THAT SHOULD BE MORE
THAN GENEROUS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WHICH SHOW STORMS
FALLING APART AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONCE AGAIN SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD MAKING THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY DIFFICULT. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY TODAY BUT LITTLE TO WEAK FORCING AND NO BOUNDARIES
AROUND SO THERE REALLY ISN`T ANYTHING FOR A FOCUS TO GET
CONVECTION GOING YET THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING CONVECTION TO BE
ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THEN WEAKEN IT THROUGH
MORNING. WITH THE POOR INITIALIZATION POPS WILL BE IN ERROR AS
WILL CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

PRESENTLY THE INSTABILITY AXIS LIES FROM NW MO ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SE SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST AND GOES FROM SOUTH EVENTUALLY POINTING INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS HOWEVER...CONVECTION THAT WAS ONGOING IN THAT
AREA HAS WANED OVERNIGHT. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOTED IN NE
NEBRASKA BUT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THAT INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AN A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
AND RIDE UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE WHEN OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BUT
WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY IN THE
EVENING.

THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY MAKING FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS BACK A BIT BUT EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER TEMPS
SHOULD EASILY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH 70+
DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE A MUGGY DAY TODAY. AFTER RUNNING MY
APPARENT TEMPS THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS WELL BELOW 100. AT THIS POINT A HEAT ADVISORY
IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY BECAUSE I MAY BE A LITTLE OVER
ZEALOUS ON TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL MONITOR THIS AREA
TO SEE IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE SWINGING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UP INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COOL FRONT SET TO MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT ON THE
LEADING FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...GENERATING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. FURTHER SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA WE WILL BE FURTHER DISPLACED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AND A RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING AND SURFACE FOCI FOR
CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...EXCEPT IN OUR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH WHERE WE ARE LIKELY TO BE GRAZED BY THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS SLIDING UP INTO
MINNESOTA. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH LATE NIGHT
STORMS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

AS TUESDAY DAWNS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE
DRAPED DOWN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...AND WILL BE
RELATIVELY SLOW TO ADVANCE DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DEPARTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS OUR AREA MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE
DAY...AND TO WHAT SOUTHWARD EXTENT IT MAY EXIST...WHICH WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HAVE
NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF...BUT AM HESITANT TO TAKE THEM LOWER AS CONDITIONS
WILL BE RIPE FOR A VERY HOT AND HUMID DAY IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES STILL PEAK AT AROUND 105 DEGREES IN
THESE AREAS...BUT ANY CONSIDERATION OF A HEADLINE WILL NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. AT ANY RATE...BY PEAK HEATING
TIME TUESDAY EVENING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN IOWA. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...AGAIN CONTINGENT ON ANY DAYTIME STORMS
ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS THREAT IS WELL
OUTLINED BY SPC. THE STORMS WILL ALSO ACT TO ACCELERATE THE
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CLEAR
OUT AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MISSOURI. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS
AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LOCATION TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
CLEARED THEM OUT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IOWA WILL
LIE BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR INITIALLY COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT THEN VARIABLE
TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND DESTABILIZATION OCCUR
AND A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING/LOCATION/EFFECTS OF ANY STORMS DURING
THIS TIME UNTIL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OR LATER GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY OF PROGNOSTIC MODELS IN PREDICTING SUCH SUBTLE IMPULSES
MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN SITES...KDSM/KOTM...FOR
BEGINNING OF PERIOD. BEHIND SYSTEM WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS KMCW WILL LIFT. WAVE LIFTING
NORTH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO WESTERN SITES NEAR
00Z...THOUGH HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT ATTM. MAY SEE MVFR OR IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES BEYOND 00Z WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING
SOUTH...ALONG WITH NEXT BEST CHANCES FOR TSRA/SHRA AT SITES...AND
INCREASING WINDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 271147
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SINCE THE ISSUANCE OF THE MORNING FORECAST THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS
SHOWED THE INSTABILITY AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY HAS
BECOME ORIENTED MORE NW/SE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.
WITH SUNRISE THERE WAS ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE GRADIENT FOR
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THEY ARE DRIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND
AS THEY MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THEY WILL DIMINISH.
STORMS SHOULD BE NORTH OF DES MOINES BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF HI-RES MODELS THAT WANT TO DEVELOP SOME STORMS IN A
CORRIDOR FROM DSM TO FOD SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED TO
ROUGHLY THAT CORRIDOR THROUGH MID MORNING AND THAT SHOULD BE MORE
THAN GENEROUS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WHICH SHOW STORMS
FALLING APART AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONCE AGAIN SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD MAKING THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY DIFFICULT. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY TODAY BUT LITTLE TO WEAK FORCING AND NO BOUNDARIES
AROUND SO THERE REALLY ISN`T ANYTHING FOR A FOCUS TO GET
CONVECTION GOING YET THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING CONVECTION TO BE
ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THEN WEAKEN IT THROUGH
MORNING. WITH THE POOR INITIALIZATION POPS WILL BE IN ERROR AS
WILL CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

PRESENTLY THE INSTABILITY AXIS LIES FROM NW MO ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SE SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST AND GOES FROM SOUTH EVENTUALLY POINTING INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS HOWEVER...CONVECTION THAT WAS ONGOING IN THAT
AREA HAS WANED OVERNIGHT. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOTED IN NE
NEBRASKA BUT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THAT INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AN A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
AND RIDE UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE WHEN OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BUT
WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY IN THE
EVENING.

THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY MAKING FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS BACK A BIT BUT EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER TEMPS
SHOULD EASILY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH 70+
DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE A MUGGY DAY TODAY. AFTER RUNNING MY
APPARENT TEMPS THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS WELL BELOW 100. AT THIS POINT A HEAT ADVISORY
IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY BECAUSE I MAY BE A LITTLE OVER
ZEALOUS ON TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL MONITOR THIS AREA
TO SEE IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE SWINGING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UP INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COOL FRONT SET TO MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT ON THE
LEADING FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...GENERATING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. FURTHER SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA WE WILL BE FURTHER DISPLACED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AND A RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING AND SURFACE FOCI FOR
CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...EXCEPT IN OUR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH WHERE WE ARE LIKELY TO BE GRAZED BY THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS SLIDING UP INTO
MINNESOTA. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH LATE NIGHT
STORMS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

AS TUESDAY DAWNS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE
DRAPED DOWN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...AND WILL BE
RELATIVELY SLOW TO ADVANCE DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DEPARTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS OUR AREA MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE
DAY...AND TO WHAT SOUTHWARD EXTENT IT MAY EXIST...WHICH WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HAVE
NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF...BUT AM HESITANT TO TAKE THEM LOWER AS CONDITIONS
WILL BE RIPE FOR A VERY HOT AND HUMID DAY IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES STILL PEAK AT AROUND 105 DEGREES IN
THESE AREAS...BUT ANY CONSIDERATION OF A HEADLINE WILL NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. AT ANY RATE...BY PEAK HEATING
TIME TUESDAY EVENING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN IOWA. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...AGAIN CONTINGENT ON ANY DAYTIME STORMS
ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS THREAT IS WELL
OUTLINED BY SPC. THE STORMS WILL ALSO ACT TO ACCELERATE THE
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CLEAR
OUT AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MISSOURI. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS
AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LOCATION TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
CLEARED THEM OUT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IOWA WILL
LIE BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR INITIALLY COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT THEN VARIABLE
TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND DESTABILIZATION OCCUR
AND A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING/LOCATION/EFFECTS OF ANY STORMS DURING
THIS TIME UNTIL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OR LATER GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY OF PROGNOSTIC MODELS IN PREDICTING SUCH SUBTLE IMPULSES
MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING DROPPING SOME VSBYS TO AROUND 1SM BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES. A LINE OF STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS IN SW IA AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY
NE AND DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO AFFECT KFOD AND MAY BE INVOF KDSM AND
KMCW. AFTER 15Z PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE ALL BUT DIMINISHED UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COMES ACROSS. I DO
EXPECT VFR WITH LCL MVFR CIGS TODAY. SFC FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 271147
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SINCE THE ISSUANCE OF THE MORNING FORECAST THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS
SHOWED THE INSTABILITY AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY HAS
BECOME ORIENTED MORE NW/SE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.
WITH SUNRISE THERE WAS ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE GRADIENT FOR
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THEY ARE DRIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND
AS THEY MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THEY WILL DIMINISH.
STORMS SHOULD BE NORTH OF DES MOINES BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF HI-RES MODELS THAT WANT TO DEVELOP SOME STORMS IN A
CORRIDOR FROM DSM TO FOD SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED TO
ROUGHLY THAT CORRIDOR THROUGH MID MORNING AND THAT SHOULD BE MORE
THAN GENEROUS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WHICH SHOW STORMS
FALLING APART AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONCE AGAIN SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD MAKING THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY DIFFICULT. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY TODAY BUT LITTLE TO WEAK FORCING AND NO BOUNDARIES
AROUND SO THERE REALLY ISN`T ANYTHING FOR A FOCUS TO GET
CONVECTION GOING YET THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING CONVECTION TO BE
ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THEN WEAKEN IT THROUGH
MORNING. WITH THE POOR INITIALIZATION POPS WILL BE IN ERROR AS
WILL CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

PRESENTLY THE INSTABILITY AXIS LIES FROM NW MO ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SE SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST AND GOES FROM SOUTH EVENTUALLY POINTING INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS HOWEVER...CONVECTION THAT WAS ONGOING IN THAT
AREA HAS WANED OVERNIGHT. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOTED IN NE
NEBRASKA BUT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THAT INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AN A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
AND RIDE UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE WHEN OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BUT
WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY IN THE
EVENING.

THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY MAKING FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS BACK A BIT BUT EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER TEMPS
SHOULD EASILY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH 70+
DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE A MUGGY DAY TODAY. AFTER RUNNING MY
APPARENT TEMPS THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS WELL BELOW 100. AT THIS POINT A HEAT ADVISORY
IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY BECAUSE I MAY BE A LITTLE OVER
ZEALOUS ON TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL MONITOR THIS AREA
TO SEE IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE SWINGING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UP INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COOL FRONT SET TO MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT ON THE
LEADING FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...GENERATING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. FURTHER SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA WE WILL BE FURTHER DISPLACED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AND A RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING AND SURFACE FOCI FOR
CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...EXCEPT IN OUR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH WHERE WE ARE LIKELY TO BE GRAZED BY THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS SLIDING UP INTO
MINNESOTA. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH LATE NIGHT
STORMS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

AS TUESDAY DAWNS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE
DRAPED DOWN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...AND WILL BE
RELATIVELY SLOW TO ADVANCE DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DEPARTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS OUR AREA MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE
DAY...AND TO WHAT SOUTHWARD EXTENT IT MAY EXIST...WHICH WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HAVE
NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF...BUT AM HESITANT TO TAKE THEM LOWER AS CONDITIONS
WILL BE RIPE FOR A VERY HOT AND HUMID DAY IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES STILL PEAK AT AROUND 105 DEGREES IN
THESE AREAS...BUT ANY CONSIDERATION OF A HEADLINE WILL NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. AT ANY RATE...BY PEAK HEATING
TIME TUESDAY EVENING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN IOWA. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...AGAIN CONTINGENT ON ANY DAYTIME STORMS
ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS THREAT IS WELL
OUTLINED BY SPC. THE STORMS WILL ALSO ACT TO ACCELERATE THE
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CLEAR
OUT AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MISSOURI. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS
AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LOCATION TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
CLEARED THEM OUT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IOWA WILL
LIE BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR INITIALLY COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT THEN VARIABLE
TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND DESTABILIZATION OCCUR
AND A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING/LOCATION/EFFECTS OF ANY STORMS DURING
THIS TIME UNTIL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OR LATER GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY OF PROGNOSTIC MODELS IN PREDICTING SUCH SUBTLE IMPULSES
MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING DROPPING SOME VSBYS TO AROUND 1SM BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES. A LINE OF STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS IN SW IA AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY
NE AND DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO AFFECT KFOD AND MAY BE INVOF KDSM AND
KMCW. AFTER 15Z PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE ALL BUT DIMINISHED UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COMES ACROSS. I DO
EXPECT VFR WITH LCL MVFR CIGS TODAY. SFC FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 271147
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SINCE THE ISSUANCE OF THE MORNING FORECAST THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS
SHOWED THE INSTABILITY AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY HAS
BECOME ORIENTED MORE NW/SE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.
WITH SUNRISE THERE WAS ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE GRADIENT FOR
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THEY ARE DRIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND
AS THEY MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THEY WILL DIMINISH.
STORMS SHOULD BE NORTH OF DES MOINES BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF HI-RES MODELS THAT WANT TO DEVELOP SOME STORMS IN A
CORRIDOR FROM DSM TO FOD SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED TO
ROUGHLY THAT CORRIDOR THROUGH MID MORNING AND THAT SHOULD BE MORE
THAN GENEROUS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WHICH SHOW STORMS
FALLING APART AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONCE AGAIN SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD MAKING THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY DIFFICULT. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY TODAY BUT LITTLE TO WEAK FORCING AND NO BOUNDARIES
AROUND SO THERE REALLY ISN`T ANYTHING FOR A FOCUS TO GET
CONVECTION GOING YET THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING CONVECTION TO BE
ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THEN WEAKEN IT THROUGH
MORNING. WITH THE POOR INITIALIZATION POPS WILL BE IN ERROR AS
WILL CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

PRESENTLY THE INSTABILITY AXIS LIES FROM NW MO ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SE SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST AND GOES FROM SOUTH EVENTUALLY POINTING INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS HOWEVER...CONVECTION THAT WAS ONGOING IN THAT
AREA HAS WANED OVERNIGHT. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOTED IN NE
NEBRASKA BUT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THAT INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AN A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
AND RIDE UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE WHEN OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BUT
WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY IN THE
EVENING.

THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY MAKING FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS BACK A BIT BUT EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER TEMPS
SHOULD EASILY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH 70+
DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE A MUGGY DAY TODAY. AFTER RUNNING MY
APPARENT TEMPS THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS WELL BELOW 100. AT THIS POINT A HEAT ADVISORY
IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY BECAUSE I MAY BE A LITTLE OVER
ZEALOUS ON TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL MONITOR THIS AREA
TO SEE IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE SWINGING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UP INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COOL FRONT SET TO MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT ON THE
LEADING FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...GENERATING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. FURTHER SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA WE WILL BE FURTHER DISPLACED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AND A RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING AND SURFACE FOCI FOR
CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...EXCEPT IN OUR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH WHERE WE ARE LIKELY TO BE GRAZED BY THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS SLIDING UP INTO
MINNESOTA. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH LATE NIGHT
STORMS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

AS TUESDAY DAWNS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE
DRAPED DOWN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...AND WILL BE
RELATIVELY SLOW TO ADVANCE DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DEPARTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS OUR AREA MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE
DAY...AND TO WHAT SOUTHWARD EXTENT IT MAY EXIST...WHICH WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HAVE
NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF...BUT AM HESITANT TO TAKE THEM LOWER AS CONDITIONS
WILL BE RIPE FOR A VERY HOT AND HUMID DAY IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES STILL PEAK AT AROUND 105 DEGREES IN
THESE AREAS...BUT ANY CONSIDERATION OF A HEADLINE WILL NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. AT ANY RATE...BY PEAK HEATING
TIME TUESDAY EVENING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN IOWA. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...AGAIN CONTINGENT ON ANY DAYTIME STORMS
ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS THREAT IS WELL
OUTLINED BY SPC. THE STORMS WILL ALSO ACT TO ACCELERATE THE
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CLEAR
OUT AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MISSOURI. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS
AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LOCATION TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
CLEARED THEM OUT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IOWA WILL
LIE BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR INITIALLY COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT THEN VARIABLE
TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND DESTABILIZATION OCCUR
AND A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING/LOCATION/EFFECTS OF ANY STORMS DURING
THIS TIME UNTIL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OR LATER GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY OF PROGNOSTIC MODELS IN PREDICTING SUCH SUBTLE IMPULSES
MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING DROPPING SOME VSBYS TO AROUND 1SM BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES. A LINE OF STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS IN SW IA AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY
NE AND DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO AFFECT KFOD AND MAY BE INVOF KDSM AND
KMCW. AFTER 15Z PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE ALL BUT DIMINISHED UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COMES ACROSS. I DO
EXPECT VFR WITH LCL MVFR CIGS TODAY. SFC FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 271147
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 629 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SINCE THE ISSUANCE OF THE MORNING FORECAST THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS
SHOWED THE INSTABILITY AXIS THAT WAS OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY HAS
BECOME ORIENTED MORE NW/SE IN THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA.
WITH SUNRISE THERE WAS ENOUGH INSTABILITY ALONG THE GRADIENT FOR
ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP. THEY ARE DRIFTING EAST/NORTHEAST AND
AS THEY MOVE INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THEY WILL DIMINISH.
STORMS SHOULD BE NORTH OF DES MOINES BUT THERE IS AT LEAST A
COUPLE OF HI-RES MODELS THAT WANT TO DEVELOP SOME STORMS IN A
CORRIDOR FROM DSM TO FOD SO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE ADDED TO
ROUGHLY THAT CORRIDOR THROUGH MID MORNING AND THAT SHOULD BE MORE
THAN GENEROUS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR TRENDS...WHICH SHOW STORMS
FALLING APART AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONCE AGAIN SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD MAKING THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY DIFFICULT. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY TODAY BUT LITTLE TO WEAK FORCING AND NO BOUNDARIES
AROUND SO THERE REALLY ISN`T ANYTHING FOR A FOCUS TO GET
CONVECTION GOING YET THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING CONVECTION TO BE
ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THEN WEAKEN IT THROUGH
MORNING. WITH THE POOR INITIALIZATION POPS WILL BE IN ERROR AS
WILL CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

PRESENTLY THE INSTABILITY AXIS LIES FROM NW MO ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SE SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST AND GOES FROM SOUTH EVENTUALLY POINTING INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS HOWEVER...CONVECTION THAT WAS ONGOING IN THAT
AREA HAS WANED OVERNIGHT. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOTED IN NE
NEBRASKA BUT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THAT INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AN A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
AND RIDE UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE WHEN OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BUT
WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY IN THE
EVENING.

THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY MAKING FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS BACK A BIT BUT EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER TEMPS
SHOULD EASILY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH 70+
DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE A MUGGY DAY TODAY. AFTER RUNNING MY
APPARENT TEMPS THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS WELL BELOW 100. AT THIS POINT A HEAT ADVISORY
IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY BECAUSE I MAY BE A LITTLE OVER
ZEALOUS ON TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL MONITOR THIS AREA
TO SEE IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE SWINGING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UP INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COOL FRONT SET TO MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT ON THE
LEADING FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...GENERATING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. FURTHER SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA WE WILL BE FURTHER DISPLACED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AND A RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING AND SURFACE FOCI FOR
CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...EXCEPT IN OUR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH WHERE WE ARE LIKELY TO BE GRAZED BY THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS SLIDING UP INTO
MINNESOTA. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH LATE NIGHT
STORMS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

AS TUESDAY DAWNS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE
DRAPED DOWN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...AND WILL BE
RELATIVELY SLOW TO ADVANCE DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DEPARTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS OUR AREA MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE
DAY...AND TO WHAT SOUTHWARD EXTENT IT MAY EXIST...WHICH WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HAVE
NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF...BUT AM HESITANT TO TAKE THEM LOWER AS CONDITIONS
WILL BE RIPE FOR A VERY HOT AND HUMID DAY IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES STILL PEAK AT AROUND 105 DEGREES IN
THESE AREAS...BUT ANY CONSIDERATION OF A HEADLINE WILL NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. AT ANY RATE...BY PEAK HEATING
TIME TUESDAY EVENING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN IOWA. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...AGAIN CONTINGENT ON ANY DAYTIME STORMS
ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS THREAT IS WELL
OUTLINED BY SPC. THE STORMS WILL ALSO ACT TO ACCELERATE THE
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CLEAR
OUT AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MISSOURI. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS
AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LOCATION TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
CLEARED THEM OUT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IOWA WILL
LIE BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR INITIALLY COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT THEN VARIABLE
TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND DESTABILIZATION OCCUR
AND A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING/LOCATION/EFFECTS OF ANY STORMS DURING
THIS TIME UNTIL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OR LATER GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY OF PROGNOSTIC MODELS IN PREDICTING SUCH SUBTLE IMPULSES
MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING DROPPING SOME VSBYS TO AROUND 1SM BUT
SHOULD QUICKLY BURN OFF AS THE SUN RISES. A LINE OF STORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG AN INSTABILITY AXIS IN SW IA AND ARE MOVING SLOWLY
NE AND DIMINISHING AS THEY MOVE AWAY FROM THE BETTER INSTABILITY.
THEY MAY HOLD TOGETHER TO AFFECT KFOD AND MAY BE INVOF KDSM AND
KMCW. AFTER 15Z PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD BE ALL BUT DIMINISHED UNTIL
LATER TONIGHT WHEN AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COMES ACROSS. I DO
EXPECT VFR WITH LCL MVFR CIGS TODAY. SFC FLOW WILL BE SOUTHERLY
AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 270841
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
341 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONCE AGAIN SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD MAKING THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY DIFFICULT. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY TODAY BUT LITTLE TO WEAK FORCING AND NO BOUNDARIES
AROUND SO THERE REALLY ISN`T ANYTHING FOR A FOCUS TO GET
CONVECTION GOING YET THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING CONVECTION TO BE
ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THEN WEAKEN IT THROUGH
MORNING. WITH THE POOR INITIALIZATION POPS WILL BE IN ERROR AS
WILL CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

PRESENTLY THE INSTABILITY AXIS LIES FROM NW MO ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SE SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST AND GOES FROM SOUTH EVENTUALLY POINTING INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS HOWEVER...CONVECTION THAT WAS ONGOING IN THAT
AREA HAS WANED OVERNIGHT. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOTED IN NE
NEBRASKA BUT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THAT INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AN A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
AND RIDE UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE WHEN OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BUT
WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY IN THE
EVENING.

THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY MAKING FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS BACK A BIT BUT EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER TEMPS
SHOULD EASILY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH 70+
DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE A MUGGY DAY TODAY. AFTER RUNNING MY
APPARENT TEMPS THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS WELL BELOW 100. AT THIS POINT A HEAT ADVISORY
IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY BECAUSE I MAY BE A LITTLE OVER
ZEALOUS ON TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL MONITOR THIS AREA
TO SEE IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE SWINGING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UP INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COOL FRONT SET TO MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT ON THE
LEADING FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...GENERATING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. FURTHER SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA WE WILL BE FURTHER DISPLACED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AND A RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING AND SURFACE FOCI FOR
CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...EXCEPT IN OUR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH WHERE WE ARE LIKELY TO BE GRAZED BY THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS SLIDING UP INTO
MINNESOTA. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH LATE NIGHT
STORMS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

AS TUESDAY DAWNS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE
DRAPED DOWN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...AND WILL BE
RELATIVELY SLOW TO ADVANCE DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DEPARTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS OUR AREA MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE
DAY...AND TO WHAT SOUTHWARD EXTENT IT MAY EXIST...WHICH WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HAVE
NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF...BUT AM HESITANT TO TAKE THEM LOWER AS CONDITIONS
WILL BE RIPE FOR A VERY HOT AND HUMID DAY IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES STILL PEAK AT AROUND 105 DEGREES IN
THESE AREAS...BUT ANY CONSIDERATION OF A HEADLINE WILL NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. AT ANY RATE...BY PEAK HEATING
TIME TUESDAY EVENING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN IOWA. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...AGAIN CONTINGENT ON ANY DAYTIME STORMS
ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS THREAT IS WELL
OUTLINED BY SPC. THE STORMS WILL ALSO ACT TO ACCELERATE THE
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CLEAR
OUT AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MISSOURI. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS
AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LOCATION TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
CLEARED THEM OUT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IOWA WILL
LIE BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR INITIALLY COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT THEN VARIABLE
TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND DESTABILIZATION OCCUR
AND A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING/LOCATION/EFFECTS OF ANY STORMS DURING
THIS TIME UNTIL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OR LATER GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY OF PROGNOSTIC MODELS IN PREDICTING SUCH SUBTLE IMPULSES
MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERN...DURING THE CRITICAL TAF PERIOD...IS FOG
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VSBYS AT THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...WITH KFOD...KMCW AND KALO AFFECTED THE MOST. HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER SD/NE MAY TEMPER THE FOG HOWEVER. VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SHRA/TSRA MAY BE MOVING
INTO/THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING
THE KFOD/KMCW TERMINALS...BUT HAVE LEFT THOSE TERMINALS DRY FOR NOW
BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO INCLUDE VCTS/TSRA
MENTION THERE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 270841
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
341 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

ONCE AGAIN SHORT TERM MODELS ARE NOT VERY GOOD MAKING THE
FORECAST FOR TODAY DIFFICULT. THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY TODAY BUT LITTLE TO WEAK FORCING AND NO BOUNDARIES
AROUND SO THERE REALLY ISN`T ANYTHING FOR A FOCUS TO GET
CONVECTION GOING YET THE MODELS ARE FORECASTING CONVECTION TO BE
ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THEN WEAKEN IT THROUGH
MORNING. WITH THE POOR INITIALIZATION POPS WILL BE IN ERROR AS
WILL CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS.

PRESENTLY THE INSTABILITY AXIS LIES FROM NW MO ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA INTO SE SOUTH DAKOTA. THE LOW LEVEL JET IS A LITTLE
FURTHER WEST AND GOES FROM SOUTH EVENTUALLY POINTING INTO THE
INSTABILITY AXIS HOWEVER...CONVECTION THAT WAS ONGOING IN THAT
AREA HAS WANED OVERNIGHT. SOME REDEVELOPMENT IS NOTED IN NE
NEBRASKA BUT WILL LIKELY FOLLOW THAT INSTABILITY AXIS AND SHOULD
REMAIN WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...A TROUGH WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS AN A SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH
AND RIDE UP THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH IN PLACE OVER THE UPPER
MIDWEST. THIS WILL BE WHEN OUR PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE BUT
WILL NOT LIKELY OCCUR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY IN THE
EVENING.

THERE SHOULD BE A FAIR AMOUNT OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE DAY MAKING FOR AT LEAST PARTLY SUNNY SKIES WHICH
SHOULD HOLD TEMPS BACK A BIT BUT EVEN WITH CLOUD COVER TEMPS
SHOULD EASILY MAKE IT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND WITH 70+
DEWPOINTS...IT WILL BE A MUGGY DAY TODAY. AFTER RUNNING MY
APPARENT TEMPS THERE APPEARS TO BE A COUPLE HOUR WINDOW IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HEAT INDICES AROUND 100 BUT EVERYWHERE ELSE ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA IS WELL BELOW 100. AT THIS POINT A HEAT ADVISORY
IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TODAY BECAUSE I MAY BE A LITTLE OVER
ZEALOUS ON TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. WE WILL MONITOR THIS AREA
TO SEE IF CLOUD COVER BREAKS MORE THAN EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERN IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD REMAINS THE UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONE SWINGING FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES UP INTO SOUTHERN
CANADA BETWEEN TONIGHT AND TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE ATTENDANT
SURFACE COOL FRONT SET TO MOVE ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. TONIGHT A BROAD AREA OF ASCENT ON THE
LEADING FLANK OF THIS SYSTEM WILL OVERSPREAD MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...GENERATING AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS
PRIMARILY ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA. FURTHER SOUTHEAST
ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA WE WILL BE FURTHER DISPLACED FROM THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM AND A RELATIVE LACK OF FORCING AND SURFACE FOCI FOR
CONVECTION SHOULD LIMIT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...EXCEPT IN OUR
NORTHWEST AND NORTH WHERE WE ARE LIKELY TO BE GRAZED BY THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS SLIDING UP INTO
MINNESOTA. OF GREATER CONCERN IS THE EXTENT TO WHICH LATE NIGHT
STORMS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY INFLUENCE THE FORECAST FOR
TUESDAY.

AS TUESDAY DAWNS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE FRONT WILL STILL BE
DRAPED DOWN EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA...AND WILL BE
RELATIVELY SLOW TO ADVANCE DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM DEPARTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO CANADA. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE DEGREE TO WHICH EARLY MORNING CONVECTION
ACROSS OUR AREA MAY BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF THROUGH THE
DAY...AND TO WHAT SOUTHWARD EXTENT IT MAY EXIST...WHICH WILL HAVE
SIGNIFICANT EFFECTS ON DAYTIME HEATING AND DESTABILIZATION. HAVE
NUDGED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN JUST A BIT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF...BUT AM HESITANT TO TAKE THEM LOWER AS CONDITIONS
WILL BE RIPE FOR A VERY HOT AND HUMID DAY IF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND EASTERN COUNTIES.
FORECAST HEAT INDEX VALUES STILL PEAK AT AROUND 105 DEGREES IN
THESE AREAS...BUT ANY CONSIDERATION OF A HEADLINE WILL NEED TO
WAIT UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. AT ANY RATE...BY PEAK HEATING
TIME TUESDAY EVENING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE LOCATED
SOMEWHERE ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST AND IT IS EXPECTED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY JUST AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY...LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN IOWA. ANY
STORMS THAT DEVELOP IN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING SEVERE WEATHER...AGAIN CONTINGENT ON ANY DAYTIME STORMS
ALLOWING DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR...AND THIS THREAT IS WELL
OUTLINED BY SPC. THE STORMS WILL ALSO ACT TO ACCELERATE THE
SOUTHEASTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL CLEAR
OUT AREA BY AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY AND SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MISSOURI. THEREFORE HAVE MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS
AHEAD OF THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LOCATION TUESDAY EVENING...BUT
CLEARED THEM OUT RAPIDLY TO THE SOUTHEAST AFTER MIDNIGHT.

FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST IOWA WILL
LIE BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...ALLOWING FOR INITIALLY COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BUT THEN VARIABLE
TEMPERATURES AND INTERMITTENT THUNDERSTORM CHANCES BY THE END OF
THE WEEK AS GRADUAL AIRMASS MODIFICATION AND DESTABILIZATION OCCUR
AND A SERIES OF SUBTLE SHORTWAVES MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW. CHANCE
POPS REMAIN IN THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND...BUT IT WILL BE
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN TIMING/LOCATION/EFFECTS OF ANY STORMS DURING
THIS TIME UNTIL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK OR LATER GIVEN THE
DIFFICULTY OF PROGNOSTIC MODELS IN PREDICTING SUCH SUBTLE IMPULSES
MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERN...DURING THE CRITICAL TAF PERIOD...IS FOG
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VSBYS AT THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...WITH KFOD...KMCW AND KALO AFFECTED THE MOST. HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER SD/NE MAY TEMPER THE FOG HOWEVER. VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SHRA/TSRA MAY BE MOVING
INTO/THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING
THE KFOD/KMCW TERMINALS...BUT HAVE LEFT THOSE TERMINALS DRY FOR NOW
BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO INCLUDE VCTS/TSRA
MENTION THERE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 270450
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1148 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 27/06Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AND
RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL. IA REMAINS ON SRN EDGE OF MAIN
CO/SD/MN/WI WESTERLIES BUT IN THE SUBSIDENCE PORTION OF THE WAVE
TRAIN. NOTED DARKENING IN WATER VAPOR WHICH COINCIDES WITH H7/H5
QG IMPLIED DOWNWARD MOTION. THERMODYNAMICALLY...RECENT RAP DOES
DEPICT A WEAK H85/H7 WAVE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER BUT FLOW IS VERY
WEAK WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION...THUS CANNOT SEE WRN DAKOTAS/NE
CONVECTION MAINTAINING ITSELF TOO FAR EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
PEAK HEATING POTENTIAL WITH RAP 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWING
AN AXIS FROM N CENTRAL INTO S CENTRAL IA...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS QUITE WEAK AS WELL. OUTFLOW FROM ERN IA CONVECTION IS
APPROACHING IOWA FALLS AND GRINNELL BUT IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ANYTHING AND WITH SURFACE FLOW BEHIND IT NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY ITS POTENTIAL MAY BE WANING. AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE
UNCAPPED AND BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING DEEPER CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY SO HAVE ADDED TOKEN ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS
RECEIVED AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...AND SOME OVER AN
INCH...AND BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED QUITE MOIST WITH LITTLE
MIXING.  WINDS STILL NEARLY CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS AND TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE LOW FOR 20Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR EXTENDED WILL FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD. LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN US WILL PUSH RIDGE...CURRENTLY
ACROSS HIGH PLAINS...EAST INTO IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY. AS RIDGE
PUSHES EAST TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE...THOUGH
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON AMOUNT OF WARM UP...AND HAVE
TRENDED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HOTTEST DAY WILL
COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY SET TO PUSH SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD INDICATE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES TRENDS
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO SPEED UP
TIMING ON APPROACHING TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITATION TRENDS MAY HAVE IMPACT ON AFTERNOON
WARMING AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION REMAINS CHALLENGING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. WEAK BAND OF
ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO FORM. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS COME BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
WAVE LIFTS NORTHWEST AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. BEST FORCING REMAINS TO
THE NORTH...BUT MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL.
AGAIN...BEST CHANCE COMES WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY...AND MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER AND HAVE SPED UP PROGRESSION
OF PRECIPITATION. MAY SEE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES.

BEHIND BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY CALM AND DRY WITH
COOLER AIR PUSHING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME NEAR END OF PERIOD FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF POPS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

SHORT TERM CONCERN...DURING THE CRITICAL TAF PERIOD...IS FOG
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED MVFR VSBYS AT THE TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT...WITH KFOD...KMCW AND KALO AFFECTED THE MOST. HIGH-LEVEL
CLOUDS FROM CONVECTION OVER SD/NE MAY TEMPER THE FOG HOWEVER. VFR
FLIGHT CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON MONDAY. SHRA/TSRA MAY BE MOVING
INTO/THROUGH NORTHWEST IOWA BY 06Z TUESDAY...AND POSSIBLY AFFECTING
THE KFOD/KMCW TERMINALS...BUT HAVE LEFT THOSE TERMINALS DRY FOR NOW
BECAUSE CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH ATTM TO INCLUDE VCTS/TSRA
MENTION THERE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 262316
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
611 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 27/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AND
RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL. IA REMAINS ON SRN EDGE OF MAIN
CO/SD/MN/WI WESTERLIES BUT IN THE SUBSIDENCE PORTION OF THE WAVE
TRAIN. NOTED DARKENING IN WATER VAPOR WHICH COINCIDES WITH H7/H5
QG IMPLIED DOWNWARD MOTION. THERMODYNAMICALLY...RECENT RAP DOES
DEPICT A WEAK H85/H7 WAVE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER BUT FLOW IS VERY
WEAK WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION...THUS CANNOT SEE WRN DAKOTAS/NE
CONVECTION MAINTAINING ITSELF TOO FAR EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
PEAK HEATING POTENTIAL WITH RAP 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWING
AN AXIS FROM N CENTRAL INTO S CENTRAL IA...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS QUITE WEAK AS WELL. OUTFLOW FROM ERN IA CONVECTION IS
APPROACHING IOWA FALLS AND GRINNELL BUT IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ANYTHING AND WITH SURFACE FLOW BEHIND IT NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY ITS POTENTIAL MAY BE WANING. AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE
UNCAPPED AND BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING DEEPER CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY SO HAVE ADDED TOKEN ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS
RECEIVED AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...AND SOME OVER AN
INCH...AND BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED QUITE MOIST WITH LITTLE
MIXING.  WINDS STILL NEARLY CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS AND TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE LOW FOR 20Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR EXTENDED WILL FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD. LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN US WILL PUSH RIDGE...CURRENTLY
ACROSS HIGH PLAINS...EAST INTO IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY. AS RIDGE
PUSHES EAST TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE...THOUGH
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON AMOUNT OF WARM UP...AND HAVE
TRENDED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HOTTEST DAY WILL
COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY SET TO PUSH SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD INDICATE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES TRENDS
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO SPEED UP
TIMING ON APPROACHING TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITATION TRENDS MAY HAVE IMPACT ON AFTERNOON
WARMING AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION REMAINS CHALLENGING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. WEAK BAND OF
ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO FORM. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS COME BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
WAVE LIFTS NORTHWEST AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. BEST FORCING REMAINS TO
THE NORTH...BUT MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL.
AGAIN...BEST CHANCE COMES WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY...AND MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER AND HAVE SPED UP PROGRESSION
OF PRECIPITATION. MAY SEE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES.

BEHIND BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY CALM AND DRY WITH
COOLER AIR PUSHING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME NEAR END OF PERIOD FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF POPS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR BR OVERNIGHT.
THE CHANCES OF SEEING IT ARE BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH
AS KFOD...KMCW AND KALO WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN
GREATER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MVFR VSBYS...POSSIBLY IFR...ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH-END MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT
THE KDSM AND KOTM TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO ANY
LOWER ON THE VSBYS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 262316
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
611 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 27/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AND
RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL. IA REMAINS ON SRN EDGE OF MAIN
CO/SD/MN/WI WESTERLIES BUT IN THE SUBSIDENCE PORTION OF THE WAVE
TRAIN. NOTED DARKENING IN WATER VAPOR WHICH COINCIDES WITH H7/H5
QG IMPLIED DOWNWARD MOTION. THERMODYNAMICALLY...RECENT RAP DOES
DEPICT A WEAK H85/H7 WAVE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER BUT FLOW IS VERY
WEAK WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION...THUS CANNOT SEE WRN DAKOTAS/NE
CONVECTION MAINTAINING ITSELF TOO FAR EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
PEAK HEATING POTENTIAL WITH RAP 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWING
AN AXIS FROM N CENTRAL INTO S CENTRAL IA...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS QUITE WEAK AS WELL. OUTFLOW FROM ERN IA CONVECTION IS
APPROACHING IOWA FALLS AND GRINNELL BUT IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ANYTHING AND WITH SURFACE FLOW BEHIND IT NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY ITS POTENTIAL MAY BE WANING. AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE
UNCAPPED AND BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING DEEPER CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY SO HAVE ADDED TOKEN ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS
RECEIVED AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...AND SOME OVER AN
INCH...AND BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED QUITE MOIST WITH LITTLE
MIXING.  WINDS STILL NEARLY CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS AND TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE LOW FOR 20Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR EXTENDED WILL FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD. LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN US WILL PUSH RIDGE...CURRENTLY
ACROSS HIGH PLAINS...EAST INTO IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY. AS RIDGE
PUSHES EAST TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE...THOUGH
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON AMOUNT OF WARM UP...AND HAVE
TRENDED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HOTTEST DAY WILL
COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY SET TO PUSH SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD INDICATE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES TRENDS
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO SPEED UP
TIMING ON APPROACHING TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITATION TRENDS MAY HAVE IMPACT ON AFTERNOON
WARMING AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION REMAINS CHALLENGING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. WEAK BAND OF
ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO FORM. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS COME BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
WAVE LIFTS NORTHWEST AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. BEST FORCING REMAINS TO
THE NORTH...BUT MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL.
AGAIN...BEST CHANCE COMES WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY...AND MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER AND HAVE SPED UP PROGRESSION
OF PRECIPITATION. MAY SEE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES.

BEHIND BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY CALM AND DRY WITH
COOLER AIR PUSHING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME NEAR END OF PERIOD FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF POPS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR BR OVERNIGHT.
THE CHANCES OF SEEING IT ARE BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH
AS KFOD...KMCW AND KALO WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN
GREATER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MVFR VSBYS...POSSIBLY IFR...ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH-END MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT
THE KDSM AND KOTM TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO ANY
LOWER ON THE VSBYS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 262316
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
611 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 27/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AND
RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL. IA REMAINS ON SRN EDGE OF MAIN
CO/SD/MN/WI WESTERLIES BUT IN THE SUBSIDENCE PORTION OF THE WAVE
TRAIN. NOTED DARKENING IN WATER VAPOR WHICH COINCIDES WITH H7/H5
QG IMPLIED DOWNWARD MOTION. THERMODYNAMICALLY...RECENT RAP DOES
DEPICT A WEAK H85/H7 WAVE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER BUT FLOW IS VERY
WEAK WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION...THUS CANNOT SEE WRN DAKOTAS/NE
CONVECTION MAINTAINING ITSELF TOO FAR EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
PEAK HEATING POTENTIAL WITH RAP 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWING
AN AXIS FROM N CENTRAL INTO S CENTRAL IA...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS QUITE WEAK AS WELL. OUTFLOW FROM ERN IA CONVECTION IS
APPROACHING IOWA FALLS AND GRINNELL BUT IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ANYTHING AND WITH SURFACE FLOW BEHIND IT NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY ITS POTENTIAL MAY BE WANING. AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE
UNCAPPED AND BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING DEEPER CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY SO HAVE ADDED TOKEN ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS
RECEIVED AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...AND SOME OVER AN
INCH...AND BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED QUITE MOIST WITH LITTLE
MIXING.  WINDS STILL NEARLY CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS AND TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE LOW FOR 20Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR EXTENDED WILL FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD. LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN US WILL PUSH RIDGE...CURRENTLY
ACROSS HIGH PLAINS...EAST INTO IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY. AS RIDGE
PUSHES EAST TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE...THOUGH
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON AMOUNT OF WARM UP...AND HAVE
TRENDED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HOTTEST DAY WILL
COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY SET TO PUSH SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD INDICATE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES TRENDS
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO SPEED UP
TIMING ON APPROACHING TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITATION TRENDS MAY HAVE IMPACT ON AFTERNOON
WARMING AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION REMAINS CHALLENGING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. WEAK BAND OF
ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO FORM. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS COME BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
WAVE LIFTS NORTHWEST AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. BEST FORCING REMAINS TO
THE NORTH...BUT MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL.
AGAIN...BEST CHANCE COMES WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY...AND MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER AND HAVE SPED UP PROGRESSION
OF PRECIPITATION. MAY SEE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES.

BEHIND BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY CALM AND DRY WITH
COOLER AIR PUSHING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME NEAR END OF PERIOD FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF POPS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR BR OVERNIGHT.
THE CHANCES OF SEEING IT ARE BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH
AS KFOD...KMCW AND KALO WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN
GREATER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MVFR VSBYS...POSSIBLY IFR...ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH-END MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT
THE KDSM AND KOTM TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO ANY
LOWER ON THE VSBYS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 262316
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
611 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 27/00Z AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AND
RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL. IA REMAINS ON SRN EDGE OF MAIN
CO/SD/MN/WI WESTERLIES BUT IN THE SUBSIDENCE PORTION OF THE WAVE
TRAIN. NOTED DARKENING IN WATER VAPOR WHICH COINCIDES WITH H7/H5
QG IMPLIED DOWNWARD MOTION. THERMODYNAMICALLY...RECENT RAP DOES
DEPICT A WEAK H85/H7 WAVE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER BUT FLOW IS VERY
WEAK WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION...THUS CANNOT SEE WRN DAKOTAS/NE
CONVECTION MAINTAINING ITSELF TOO FAR EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
PEAK HEATING POTENTIAL WITH RAP 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWING
AN AXIS FROM N CENTRAL INTO S CENTRAL IA...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS QUITE WEAK AS WELL. OUTFLOW FROM ERN IA CONVECTION IS
APPROACHING IOWA FALLS AND GRINNELL BUT IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ANYTHING AND WITH SURFACE FLOW BEHIND IT NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY ITS POTENTIAL MAY BE WANING. AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE
UNCAPPED AND BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING DEEPER CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY SO HAVE ADDED TOKEN ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS
RECEIVED AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...AND SOME OVER AN
INCH...AND BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED QUITE MOIST WITH LITTLE
MIXING.  WINDS STILL NEARLY CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS AND TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE LOW FOR 20Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR EXTENDED WILL FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD. LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN US WILL PUSH RIDGE...CURRENTLY
ACROSS HIGH PLAINS...EAST INTO IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY. AS RIDGE
PUSHES EAST TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE...THOUGH
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON AMOUNT OF WARM UP...AND HAVE
TRENDED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HOTTEST DAY WILL
COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY SET TO PUSH SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD INDICATE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES TRENDS
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO SPEED UP
TIMING ON APPROACHING TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITATION TRENDS MAY HAVE IMPACT ON AFTERNOON
WARMING AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION REMAINS CHALLENGING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. WEAK BAND OF
ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO FORM. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS COME BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
WAVE LIFTS NORTHWEST AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. BEST FORCING REMAINS TO
THE NORTH...BUT MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL.
AGAIN...BEST CHANCE COMES WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY...AND MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER AND HAVE SPED UP PROGRESSION
OF PRECIPITATION. MAY SEE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES.

BEHIND BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY CALM AND DRY WITH
COOLER AIR PUSHING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME NEAR END OF PERIOD FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF POPS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN DURING THE TAF PERIOD IS POTENTIAL FOR BR OVERNIGHT.
THE CHANCES OF SEEING IT ARE BEST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS SUCH
AS KFOD...KMCW AND KALO WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE HAS BEEN
GREATER DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. MVFR VSBYS...POSSIBLY IFR...ARE
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH-END MVFR VSBYS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AT
THE KDSM AND KOTM TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO GO ANY
LOWER ON THE VSBYS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 262052
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AND
RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL. IA REMAINS ON SRN EDGE OF MAIN
CO/SD/MN/WI WESTERLIES BUT IN THE SUBSIDENCE PORTION OF THE WAVE
TRAIN. NOTED DARKENING IN WATER VAPOR WHICH COINCIDES WITH H7/H5
QG IMPLIED DOWNWARD MOTION. THERMODYNAMICALLY...RECENT RAP DOES
DEPICT A WEAK H85/H7 WAVE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER BUT FLOW IS VERY
WEAK WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION...THUS CANNOT SEE WRN DAKOTAS/NE
CONVECTION MAINTAINING ITSELF TOO FAR EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
PEAK HEATING POTENTIAL WITH RAP 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWING
AN AXIS FROM N CENTRAL INTO S CENTRAL IA...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS QUITE WEAK AS WELL. OUTFLOW FROM ERN IA CONVECTION IS
APPROACHING IOWA FALLS AND GRINNELL BUT IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ANYTHING AND WITH SURFACE FLOW BEHIND IT NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY ITS POTENTIAL MAY BE WANING. AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE
UNCAPPED AND BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING DEEPER CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY SO HAVE ADDED TOKEN ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS
RECEIVED AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...AND SOME OVER AN
INCH...AND BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED QUITE MOIST WITH LITTLE
MIXING.  WINDS STILL NEARLY CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS AND TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE LOW FOR 20Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR EXTENDED WILL FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD. LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN US WILL PUSH RIDGE...CURRENTLY
ACROSS HIGH PLAINS...EAST INTO IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY. AS RIDGE
PUSHES EAST TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE...THOUGH
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON AMOUNT OF WARM UP...AND HAVE
TRENDED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HOTTEST DAY WILL
COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY SET TO PUSH SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD INDICATE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES TRENDS
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO SPEED UP
TIMING ON APPROACHING TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITATION TRENDS MAY HAVE IMPACT ON AFTERNOON
WARMING AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION REMAINS CHALLENGING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. WEAK BAND OF
ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO FORM. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS COME BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
WAVE LIFTS NORTHWEST AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. BEST FORCING REMAINS TO
THE NORTH...BUT MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL.
AGAIN...BEST CHANCE COMES WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY...AND MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER AND HAVE SPED UP PROGRESSION
OF PRECIPITATION. MAY SEE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES.

BEHIND BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY CALM AND DRY WITH
COOLER AIR PUSHING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME NEAR END OF PERIOD FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF POPS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

INITIAL CONCERN IS PEAK HEATING CONVECTION FOLLOWED BY RADIATION
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. WATCHING AREA OF CONVERGENCE NEAR
KMCW/KALO THAT MAY DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT ANY OF THESE WOULD IMPACT A
PARTICULAR SITE IS LOW HOWEVER SO ALL SITES VFR INTO THE EVENING.

WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME
AREAS...LOW LEVEL RH WILL REMAIN HIGH LEADING TO FOG POTENTIAL
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. KMCW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS
STILL ONLY 5F AT 18Z. HAVE MENTIONED VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR IN
THESE AREAS...ROUGHLY 09-15Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
EARLIER OR EVEN DOWN TO LIFR...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 262052
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

PRIMARY CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE CONVECTION REDEVELOPING AND
RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL. IA REMAINS ON SRN EDGE OF MAIN
CO/SD/MN/WI WESTERLIES BUT IN THE SUBSIDENCE PORTION OF THE WAVE
TRAIN. NOTED DARKENING IN WATER VAPOR WHICH COINCIDES WITH H7/H5
QG IMPLIED DOWNWARD MOTION. THERMODYNAMICALLY...RECENT RAP DOES
DEPICT A WEAK H85/H7 WAVE ALONG THE IA/MN BORDER BUT FLOW IS VERY
WEAK WITH NEUTRAL ADVECTION...THUS CANNOT SEE WRN DAKOTAS/NE
CONVECTION MAINTAINING ITSELF TOO FAR EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME
PEAK HEATING POTENTIAL WITH RAP 0-1KM MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOWING
AN AXIS FROM N CENTRAL INTO S CENTRAL IA...BUT THE LOW LEVEL FLOW
IS QUITE WEAK AS WELL. OUTFLOW FROM ERN IA CONVECTION IS
APPROACHING IOWA FALLS AND GRINNELL BUT IS REALLY STRUGGLING TO
GENERATE ANYTHING AND WITH SURFACE FLOW BEHIND IT NEARLY PARALLEL
TO THE BOUNDARY ITS POTENTIAL MAY BE WANING. AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE
UNCAPPED AND BOUNDARY IS APPROACHING DEEPER CONVERGENCE AND HIGHER
INSTABILITY SO HAVE ADDED TOKEN ISOLATED WORDING INTO THE EARLY
EVENING HOURS.

HAVE ALSO ADDED PATCHY FOG WORDING AREA WIDE OVERNIGHT. MANY AREAS
RECEIVED AT LEAST A HALF INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...AND SOME OVER AN
INCH...AND BOUNDARY LAYER HAS REMAINED QUITE MOIST WITH LITTLE
MIXING.  WINDS STILL NEARLY CALM IN MANY LOCATIONS AND TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS ARE LOW FOR 20Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

MAIN CONCERN FOR EXTENDED WILL FOCUS ON PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND
TEMPERATURES FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD. LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PUSHING EAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN US WILL PUSH RIDGE...CURRENTLY
ACROSS HIGH PLAINS...EAST INTO IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY. AS RIDGE
PUSHES EAST TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE...THOUGH
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF SOMEWHAT ON AMOUNT OF WARM UP...AND HAVE
TRENDED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY AS WELL. HOWEVER...HOTTEST DAY WILL
COME TUESDAY AHEAD OF BOUNDARY SET TO PUSH SOUTH TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. CURRENT FORECAST WOULD INDICATE NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CWA TUESDAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES TRENDS
ARE STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO SPEED UP
TIMING ON APPROACHING TUESDAY SYSTEM...AND PLACEMENT OF BOUNDARY
WILL HAVE LARGE IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRECIPITATION TRENDS MAY HAVE IMPACT ON AFTERNOON
WARMING AS WELL.

PRECIPITATION REMAINS CHALLENGING AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. WEAK BAND OF
ADVECTION PUSHES ACROSS THE NORTH MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND HAVE
INCLUDED MENTION FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST WITH
INSTABILITY SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO FORM. BEST CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS COME BEGINNING LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
WAVE LIFTS NORTHWEST AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. BEST FORCING REMAINS TO
THE NORTH...BUT MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO FOCUS SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH INTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA...AND HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY AS WELL.
AGAIN...BEST CHANCE COMES WITH BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH FOR
TUESDAY...AND MODELS ARE A BIT FASTER AND HAVE SPED UP PROGRESSION
OF PRECIPITATION. MAY SEE CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAIN WITH PWAT VALUES
NEAR 2 INCHES.

BEHIND BOUNDARY...CONDITIONS WILL BE PRIMARILY CALM AND DRY WITH
COOLER AIR PUSHING IN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. NEXT BEST
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL COME NEAR END OF PERIOD FOR THE
WEEKEND WITH WEAK BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF POPS ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 2015

INITIAL CONCERN IS PEAK HEATING CONVECTION FOLLOWED BY RADIATION
FOG POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. WATCHING AREA OF CONVERGENCE NEAR
KMCW/KALO THAT MAY DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE
EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE THAT ANY OF THESE WOULD IMPACT A
PARTICULAR SITE IS LOW HOWEVER SO ALL SITES VFR INTO THE EVENING.

WITH PERSISTENT CLOUDS INTO THE AFTERNOON IN THESE SAME
AREAS...LOW LEVEL RH WILL REMAIN HIGH LEADING TO FOG POTENTIAL
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. KMCW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREAD IS
STILL ONLY 5F AT 18Z. HAVE MENTIONED VSBYS DOWN TO MVFR/IFR IN
THESE AREAS...ROUGHLY 09-15Z. SOME POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO OCCUR
EARLIER OR EVEN DOWN TO LIFR...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON THAT UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SMALL





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