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000
FXUS63 KDMX 050454
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1154 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AREA CONTINUES BENEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE
SURFACE AS THE STATE REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NW KS. WEAK PV
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION HAS BEEN IN PLACE JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NE...SE SD AND NW
IA. THE AREA OF LIFT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE REINFORCED LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LLJ PICKS UP AND IS ORIENTED
INTO NC IA AND CNTRL MN. THEREFORE PRECIP THAT IS CREEPING INTO THE
NW CWA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT SOME
DIMINISHMENT WITHIN THE AREA INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS...BUT THEN
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED WITH THE ONSET OF THE
LLJ WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO INCREASE INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE PAC NW PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO SRN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY LATE SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT INTO THE NRN PLAINS/MN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO BE PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
EXPECT THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES
SHOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH
COULD BRING SOME CHANCES FOR STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL
PASSAGE WAA AND WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. OTHERWISE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO AROUND 30-35 KTS WITH DECENT INSTABILITY...SO SOME
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...SO STORM CHANCES LINGER INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE INTO TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A STRONGER WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PUSH THE LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE HELD
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE AREA...BUT BOTH
THE GFS/EC TODAY HAVE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE BACK
OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD LATE WEEK. THIS
MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE
INTO THURSDAY. TIMING IS TOUGH AT THIS RANGE WITH SOME
DISCREPANCIES. TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER THROUGH THE WEEK STILL
ON TRACK WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING FROM THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE THE LOW TEENS TO AROUND 10C BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER NRN SITES
/KFOD/KMCW/KALO/ INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF RADIATION FOG NEAR KMCW AS WELL...POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT
KDSM/KOTM WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS AND WEAK GUSTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 050454
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1154 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AREA CONTINUES BENEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE
SURFACE AS THE STATE REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NW KS. WEAK PV
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION HAS BEEN IN PLACE JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NE...SE SD AND NW
IA. THE AREA OF LIFT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE REINFORCED LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LLJ PICKS UP AND IS ORIENTED
INTO NC IA AND CNTRL MN. THEREFORE PRECIP THAT IS CREEPING INTO THE
NW CWA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT SOME
DIMINISHMENT WITHIN THE AREA INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS...BUT THEN
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED WITH THE ONSET OF THE
LLJ WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO INCREASE INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE PAC NW PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO SRN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY LATE SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT INTO THE NRN PLAINS/MN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO BE PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
EXPECT THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES
SHOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH
COULD BRING SOME CHANCES FOR STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL
PASSAGE WAA AND WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. OTHERWISE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO AROUND 30-35 KTS WITH DECENT INSTABILITY...SO SOME
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...SO STORM CHANCES LINGER INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE INTO TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A STRONGER WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PUSH THE LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE HELD
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE AREA...BUT BOTH
THE GFS/EC TODAY HAVE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE BACK
OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD LATE WEEK. THIS
MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE
INTO THURSDAY. TIMING IS TOUGH AT THIS RANGE WITH SOME
DISCREPANCIES. TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER THROUGH THE WEEK STILL
ON TRACK WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING FROM THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE THE LOW TEENS TO AROUND 10C BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST OVER NRN SITES
/KFOD/KMCW/KALO/ INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BUT FAIRLY HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THEY WILL REMAIN VFR. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER BRIEF
PERIOD OF RADIATION FOG NEAR KMCW AS WELL...POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR FOR
AN HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT
KDSM/KOTM WITH MAINLY SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS AND WEAK GUSTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 042346
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AREA CONTINUES BENEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE
SURFACE AS THE STATE REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NW KS. WEAK PV
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION HAS BEEN IN PLACE JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NE...SE SD AND NW
IA. THE AREA OF LIFT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE REINFORCED LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LLJ PICKS UP AND IS ORIENTED
INTO NC IA AND CNTRL MN. THEREFORE PRECIP THAT IS CREEPING INTO THE
NW CWA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT SOME
DIMINISHMENT WITHIN THE AREA INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS...BUT THEN
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED WITH THE ONSET OF THE
LLJ WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO INCREASE INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE PAC NW PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO SRN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY LATE SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT INTO THE NRN PLAINS/MN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO BE PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
EXPECT THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES
SHOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH
COULD BRING SOME CHANCES FOR STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL
PASSAGE WAA AND WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. OTHERWISE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO AROUND 30-35 KTS WITH DECENT INSTABILITY...SO SOME
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...SO STORM CHANCES LINGER INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE INTO TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A STRONGER WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PUSH THE LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE HELD
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE AREA...BUT BOTH
THE GFS/EC TODAY HAVE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE BACK
OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD LATE WEEK. THIS
MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE
INTO THURSDAY. TIMING IS TOUGH AT THIS RANGE WITH SOME
DISCREPANCIES. TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER THROUGH THE WEEK STILL
ON TRACK WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING FROM THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE THE LOW TEENS TO AROUND 10C BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTION SHOULD BRUSH NRN SITES THIS EVENING BUT
REMAIN VFR. THERE COULD BE ANOTHER BRIEF PERIOD OF RADIATION FOG
NEAR KMCW AS WELL...POSSIBLY DOWN TO IFR FOR AN HOUR OR TWO.
OTHERWISE EXPECT CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS AT KDSM/KOTM WITH MAINLY
SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 042019
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
319 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AREA CONTINUES BENEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE
SURFACE AS THE STATE REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NW KS. WEAK PV
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION HAS BEEN IN PLACE JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NE...SE SD AND NW
IA. THE AREA OF LIFT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE REINFORCED LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LLJ PICKS UP AND IS ORIENTED
INTO NC IA AND CNTRL MN. THEREFORE PRECIP THAT IS CREEPING INTO THE
NW CWA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT SOME
DIMINISHMENT WITHIN THE AREA INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS...BUT THEN
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED WITH THE ONSET OF THE
LLJ WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO INCREASE INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE PAC NW PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO SRN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY LATE SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT INTO THE NRN PLAINS/MN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO BE PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
EXPECT THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES
SHOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH
COULD BRING SOME CHANCES FOR STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL
PASSAGE WAA AND WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. OTHERWISE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO AROUND 30-35 KTS WITH DECENT INSTABILITY...SO SOME
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...SO STORM CHANCES LINGER INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE INTO TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A STRONGER WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PUSH THE LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE HELD
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE AREA...BUT BOTH
THE GFS/EC TODAY HAVE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE BACK
OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD LATE WEEK. THIS
MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE
INTO THURSDAY. TIMING IS TOUGH AT THIS RANGE WITH SOME
DISCREPANCIES. TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER THROUGH THE WEEK STILL
ON TRACK WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING FROM THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE THE LOW TEENS TO AROUND 10C BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MUCH OF THE SAME AT TAF SITES FOR THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY OR TWO. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS DURING DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 15KTS.
WINDS WILL CALM A BIT TO AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING AND CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE
WITH DECKS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH...IF AT ALL...BELOW 10KFT AT
THE MOMENT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BEERENDS
AVIATION...CURTIS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 042019
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
319 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

AREA CONTINUES BENEATH SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE
SURFACE AS THE STATE REMAINS SANDWICHED BETWEEN A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
STRETCHING FROM CENTRAL ND SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NW KS. WEAK PV
ADVECTION AND THETA-E ADVECTION HAS BEEN IN PLACE JUST TO THE WEST
OF THE CWA THROUGHOUT THE DAY...WHICH HAS RESULTED IN A SMALL AREA OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN NE...SE SD AND NW
IA. THE AREA OF LIFT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CWA EARLY THIS EVENING AND WILL BE REINFORCED LATE THIS
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LLJ PICKS UP AND IS ORIENTED
INTO NC IA AND CNTRL MN. THEREFORE PRECIP THAT IS CREEPING INTO THE
NW CWA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. EXPECT SOME
DIMINISHMENT WITHIN THE AREA INTO THE MID EVENING HOURS...BUT THEN
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT/ENHANCEMENT EXPECTED WITH THE ONSET OF THE
LLJ WITH STORMS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUB-SEVERE. SOUTHERLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO INCREASE INTO SATURDAY/SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE PAC NW PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO SRN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BY LATE SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WILL DEEPEN AND LIFT INTO THE NRN PLAINS/MN
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO BE PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CWA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT
EXPECT THE WARM AND HUMID WEATHER TO CONTINUE. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES
SHOVE OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHICH
COULD BRING SOME CHANCES FOR STORMS AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONTAL
PASSAGE WAA AND WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. OTHERWISE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT
WITH MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIP CHANCES POSSIBLE. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
INCREASES TO AROUND 30-35 KTS WITH DECENT INSTABILITY...SO SOME
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE. FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS OUT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...SO STORM CHANCES LINGER INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS
WEAK ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE INTO TUE/TUE NIGHT AS A STRONGER WAVE PUSHES
THROUGH IN THE NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL PUSH THE LINGERING
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN FOR WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS RUNS THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE HELD
THIS AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN FIRM CONTROL OF THE AREA...BUT BOTH
THE GFS/EC TODAY HAVE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE BACK
OF THE MAIN TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARD LATE WEEK. THIS
MAY RESULT IN SOME SHOWERS/ISOLATED STORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND MAYBE
INTO THURSDAY. TIMING IS TOUGH AT THIS RANGE WITH SOME
DISCREPANCIES. TEMPERATURES TRENDING COOLER THROUGH THE WEEK STILL
ON TRACK WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING FROM THE LOWER 20S CELSIUS THIS
WEEKEND INTO THE THE LOW TEENS TO AROUND 10C BY THE END OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MUCH OF THE SAME AT TAF SITES FOR THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY OR TWO. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS DURING DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 15KTS.
WINDS WILL CALM A BIT TO AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING AND CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE
WITH DECKS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH...IF AT ALL...BELOW 10KFT AT
THE MOMENT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BEERENDS
AVIATION...CURTIS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 041842
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
142 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN NE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND...AND
LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS MAY PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THE
EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION AND HOW FAR WEST IT WILL REACH...WITH MODELS
INDICATING A MORE NORTHERLY PUSH TO SYSTEM.

SIMILARLY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
EXPECT WAVE TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AND TRACK
OF WAVE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING SYSTEM NORTH
AND EAST OF CWA. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH FEEL THEY ARE OVERDONE...HAVE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECT BETTER MIXING TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE CLOSE
OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
TEMPERATURE NEAR GOING AND CLOSE TO TEMPS THURSDAY. KEPT TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS MAY HELP KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 90S...THOUGH MAY TOP OUT NEAR 100
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY DEPARTING TO THE
EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL PV IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
SYSTEM. STATIC STABILITY HAS BEEN LOW ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AREA HAS AIDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT A REPEAT WILL NOT OCCUR
AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH THE CIRCULATION CERTAINLY IS WEAKENED BY THAT
TIME AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING FURTHER INTO THE AREA. THE
INCREASING MONSOONAL FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BE A PRIME TIME PLAYER IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...NUMEROUS VORTICITY FRAGMENTS SHEARING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN WILL WILL BE INGESTED INTO THE FLOW. THESE INITIAL PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST IOWA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BRING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL HELP BRING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BACK TO IOWA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
DURING THIS TIME AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO A REGION WILL GOOD
INSTABILITY. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE...THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR BECOMES STRONG AS EVIDENCED BY PROJECTED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM SHEAR
AT 30 KTS OR GREATER. POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO TURN INTO A QLCS EVENT
SUNDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH PWATS...INITIAL STORM
MOTIONS OF 20 KTS OR LESS MAY LEAD TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS WELL.

THE PROGRESSION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTH
AS A COLD FRONT AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE KEPT POPS TO A MINIMUM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR ARRIVING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES AROUND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THE AIR MASS REMAINING
RELATIVELY DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 90 TO 100. THIS IS LIKELY THE FAREWELL TOUR OF THE TRUE HEAT
FOR THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MUCH OF THE SAME AT TAF SITES FOR THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY OR TWO. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS DURING DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 15KTS.
WINDS WILL CALM A BIT TO AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING AND CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE
WITH DECKS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH...IF AT ALL...BELOW 10KFT AT
THE MOMENT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...CURTIS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 041842
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
142 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN NE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND...AND
LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS MAY PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THE
EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION AND HOW FAR WEST IT WILL REACH...WITH MODELS
INDICATING A MORE NORTHERLY PUSH TO SYSTEM.

SIMILARLY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
EXPECT WAVE TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AND TRACK
OF WAVE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING SYSTEM NORTH
AND EAST OF CWA. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH FEEL THEY ARE OVERDONE...HAVE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECT BETTER MIXING TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE CLOSE
OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
TEMPERATURE NEAR GOING AND CLOSE TO TEMPS THURSDAY. KEPT TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS MAY HELP KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 90S...THOUGH MAY TOP OUT NEAR 100
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY DEPARTING TO THE
EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL PV IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
SYSTEM. STATIC STABILITY HAS BEEN LOW ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AREA HAS AIDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT A REPEAT WILL NOT OCCUR
AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH THE CIRCULATION CERTAINLY IS WEAKENED BY THAT
TIME AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING FURTHER INTO THE AREA. THE
INCREASING MONSOONAL FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BE A PRIME TIME PLAYER IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...NUMEROUS VORTICITY FRAGMENTS SHEARING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN WILL WILL BE INGESTED INTO THE FLOW. THESE INITIAL PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST IOWA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BRING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL HELP BRING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BACK TO IOWA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
DURING THIS TIME AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO A REGION WILL GOOD
INSTABILITY. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE...THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR BECOMES STRONG AS EVIDENCED BY PROJECTED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM SHEAR
AT 30 KTS OR GREATER. POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO TURN INTO A QLCS EVENT
SUNDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH PWATS...INITIAL STORM
MOTIONS OF 20 KTS OR LESS MAY LEAD TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS WELL.

THE PROGRESSION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTH
AS A COLD FRONT AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE KEPT POPS TO A MINIMUM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR ARRIVING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES AROUND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THE AIR MASS REMAINING
RELATIVELY DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 90 TO 100. THIS IS LIKELY THE FAREWELL TOUR OF THE TRUE HEAT
FOR THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MUCH OF THE SAME AT TAF SITES FOR THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY OR TWO. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS DURING DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 15KTS.
WINDS WILL CALM A BIT TO AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING AND CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE
WITH DECKS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH...IF AT ALL...BELOW 10KFT AT
THE MOMENT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...CURTIS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 041842
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
142 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN NE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND...AND
LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS MAY PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THE
EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION AND HOW FAR WEST IT WILL REACH...WITH MODELS
INDICATING A MORE NORTHERLY PUSH TO SYSTEM.

SIMILARLY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
EXPECT WAVE TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AND TRACK
OF WAVE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING SYSTEM NORTH
AND EAST OF CWA. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH FEEL THEY ARE OVERDONE...HAVE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECT BETTER MIXING TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE CLOSE
OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
TEMPERATURE NEAR GOING AND CLOSE TO TEMPS THURSDAY. KEPT TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS MAY HELP KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 90S...THOUGH MAY TOP OUT NEAR 100
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY DEPARTING TO THE
EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL PV IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
SYSTEM. STATIC STABILITY HAS BEEN LOW ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AREA HAS AIDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT A REPEAT WILL NOT OCCUR
AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH THE CIRCULATION CERTAINLY IS WEAKENED BY THAT
TIME AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING FURTHER INTO THE AREA. THE
INCREASING MONSOONAL FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BE A PRIME TIME PLAYER IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...NUMEROUS VORTICITY FRAGMENTS SHEARING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN WILL WILL BE INGESTED INTO THE FLOW. THESE INITIAL PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST IOWA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BRING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL HELP BRING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BACK TO IOWA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
DURING THIS TIME AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO A REGION WILL GOOD
INSTABILITY. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE...THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR BECOMES STRONG AS EVIDENCED BY PROJECTED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM SHEAR
AT 30 KTS OR GREATER. POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO TURN INTO A QLCS EVENT
SUNDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH PWATS...INITIAL STORM
MOTIONS OF 20 KTS OR LESS MAY LEAD TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS WELL.

THE PROGRESSION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTH
AS A COLD FRONT AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE KEPT POPS TO A MINIMUM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR ARRIVING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES AROUND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THE AIR MASS REMAINING
RELATIVELY DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 90 TO 100. THIS IS LIKELY THE FAREWELL TOUR OF THE TRUE HEAT
FOR THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 139 PM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MUCH OF THE SAME AT TAF SITES FOR THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD AS THE
PREVIOUS DAY OR TWO. SOUTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10KTS DURING DAYTIME
HOURS TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 15KTS.
WINDS WILL CALM A BIT TO AROUND 5 KTS THIS EVENING AND CLOUD
COVER WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...BUT VFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE
WITH DECKS NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH...IF AT ALL...BELOW 10KFT AT
THE MOMENT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...CURTIS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 041133
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
633 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN NE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND...AND
LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS MAY PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THE
EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION AND HOW FAR WEST IT WILL REACH...WITH MODELS
INDICATING A MORE NORTHERLY PUSH TO SYSTEM.

SIMILARLY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
EXPECT WAVE TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AND TRACK
OF WAVE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING SYSTEM NORTH
AND EAST OF CWA. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH FEEL THEY ARE OVERDONE...HAVE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECT BETTER MIXING TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE CLOSE
OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
TEMPERATURE NEAR GOING AND CLOSE TO TEMPS THURSDAY. KEPT TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS MAY HELP KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 90S...THOUGH MAY TOP OUT NEAR 100
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY DEPARTING TO THE
EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL PV IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
SYSTEM. STATIC STABILITY HAS BEEN LOW ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AREA HAS AIDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT A REPEAT WILL NOT OCCUR
AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH THE CIRCULATION CERTAINLY IS WEAKENED BY THAT
TIME AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING FURTHER INTO THE AREA. THE
INCREASING MONSOONAL FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BE A PRIME TIME PLAYER IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...NUMEROUS VORTICITY FRAGMENTS SHEARING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN WILL WILL BE INGESTED INTO THE FLOW. THESE INITIAL PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST IOWA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BRING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL HELP BRING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BACK TO IOWA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
DURING THIS TIME AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO A REGION WILL GOOD
INSTABILITY. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE...THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR BECOMES STRONG AS EVIDENCED BY PROJECTED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM SHEAR
AT 30 KTS OR GREATER. POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO TURN INTO A QLCS EVENT
SUNDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH PWATS...INITIAL STORM
MOTIONS OF 20 KTS OR LESS MAY LEAD TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS WELL.

THE PROGRESSION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTH
AS A COLD FRONT AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE KEPT POPS TO A MINIMUM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR ARRIVING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES AROUND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THE AIR MASS REMAINING
RELATIVELY DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 90 TO 100. THIS IS LIKELY THE FAREWELL TOUR OF THE TRUE HEAT
FOR THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...04/12Z
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM BR/HZ AT NORTHERN SITES KMCW/KALO EXPECTED
TO LIFT QUICKLY AFTER 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH PERIOD. MAY SEE TSRA AT NORTHERN SITES IN
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED MENTION ATTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 041133
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
633 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN NE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND...AND
LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS MAY PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THE
EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION AND HOW FAR WEST IT WILL REACH...WITH MODELS
INDICATING A MORE NORTHERLY PUSH TO SYSTEM.

SIMILARLY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
EXPECT WAVE TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AND TRACK
OF WAVE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING SYSTEM NORTH
AND EAST OF CWA. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH FEEL THEY ARE OVERDONE...HAVE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECT BETTER MIXING TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE CLOSE
OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
TEMPERATURE NEAR GOING AND CLOSE TO TEMPS THURSDAY. KEPT TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS MAY HELP KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 90S...THOUGH MAY TOP OUT NEAR 100
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY DEPARTING TO THE
EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL PV IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
SYSTEM. STATIC STABILITY HAS BEEN LOW ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AREA HAS AIDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT A REPEAT WILL NOT OCCUR
AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH THE CIRCULATION CERTAINLY IS WEAKENED BY THAT
TIME AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING FURTHER INTO THE AREA. THE
INCREASING MONSOONAL FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BE A PRIME TIME PLAYER IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...NUMEROUS VORTICITY FRAGMENTS SHEARING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN WILL WILL BE INGESTED INTO THE FLOW. THESE INITIAL PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST IOWA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BRING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL HELP BRING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BACK TO IOWA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
DURING THIS TIME AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO A REGION WILL GOOD
INSTABILITY. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE...THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR BECOMES STRONG AS EVIDENCED BY PROJECTED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM SHEAR
AT 30 KTS OR GREATER. POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO TURN INTO A QLCS EVENT
SUNDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH PWATS...INITIAL STORM
MOTIONS OF 20 KTS OR LESS MAY LEAD TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS WELL.

THE PROGRESSION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTH
AS A COLD FRONT AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE KEPT POPS TO A MINIMUM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR ARRIVING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES AROUND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THE AIR MASS REMAINING
RELATIVELY DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 90 TO 100. THIS IS LIKELY THE FAREWELL TOUR OF THE TRUE HEAT
FOR THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...04/12Z
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM BR/HZ AT NORTHERN SITES KMCW/KALO EXPECTED
TO LIFT QUICKLY AFTER 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH PERIOD. MAY SEE TSRA AT NORTHERN SITES IN
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED MENTION ATTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 041133
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
633 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN NE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND...AND
LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS MAY PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THE
EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION AND HOW FAR WEST IT WILL REACH...WITH MODELS
INDICATING A MORE NORTHERLY PUSH TO SYSTEM.

SIMILARLY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
EXPECT WAVE TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AND TRACK
OF WAVE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING SYSTEM NORTH
AND EAST OF CWA. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH FEEL THEY ARE OVERDONE...HAVE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECT BETTER MIXING TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE CLOSE
OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
TEMPERATURE NEAR GOING AND CLOSE TO TEMPS THURSDAY. KEPT TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS MAY HELP KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 90S...THOUGH MAY TOP OUT NEAR 100
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY DEPARTING TO THE
EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL PV IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
SYSTEM. STATIC STABILITY HAS BEEN LOW ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AREA HAS AIDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT A REPEAT WILL NOT OCCUR
AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH THE CIRCULATION CERTAINLY IS WEAKENED BY THAT
TIME AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING FURTHER INTO THE AREA. THE
INCREASING MONSOONAL FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BE A PRIME TIME PLAYER IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...NUMEROUS VORTICITY FRAGMENTS SHEARING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN WILL WILL BE INGESTED INTO THE FLOW. THESE INITIAL PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST IOWA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BRING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL HELP BRING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BACK TO IOWA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
DURING THIS TIME AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO A REGION WILL GOOD
INSTABILITY. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE...THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR BECOMES STRONG AS EVIDENCED BY PROJECTED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM SHEAR
AT 30 KTS OR GREATER. POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO TURN INTO A QLCS EVENT
SUNDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH PWATS...INITIAL STORM
MOTIONS OF 20 KTS OR LESS MAY LEAD TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS WELL.

THE PROGRESSION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTH
AS A COLD FRONT AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE KEPT POPS TO A MINIMUM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR ARRIVING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES AROUND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THE AIR MASS REMAINING
RELATIVELY DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 90 TO 100. THIS IS LIKELY THE FAREWELL TOUR OF THE TRUE HEAT
FOR THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...04/12Z
ISSUED AT 613 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM BR/HZ AT NORTHERN SITES KMCW/KALO EXPECTED
TO LIFT QUICKLY AFTER 12Z. VFR CONDITIONS WILL THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH PERIOD. MAY SEE TSRA AT NORTHERN SITES IN
AFTERNOON...THOUGH EXPECT COVERAGE TO BE ISOLATED AND HAVE NOT
INCLUDED MENTION ATTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 040900
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN NE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND...AND
LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS MAY PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THE
EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION AND HOW FAR WEST IT WILL REACH...WITH MODELS
INDICATING A MORE NORTHERLY PUSH TO SYSTEM.

SIMILARLY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
EXPECT WAVE TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AND TRACK
OF WAVE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING SYSTEM NORTH
AND EAST OF CWA. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH FEEL THEY ARE OVERDONE...HAVE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECT BETTER MIXING TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE CLOSE
OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
TEMPERATURE NEAR GOING AND CLOSE TO TEMPS THURSDAY. KEPT TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS MAY HELP KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 90S...THOUGH MAY TOP OUT NEAR 100
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY DEPARTING TO THE
EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL PV IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
SYSTEM. STATIC STABILITY HAS BEEN LOW ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AREA HAS AIDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT A REPEAT WILL NOT OCCUR
AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH THE CIRCULATION CERTAINLY IS WEAKENED BY THAT
TIME AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING FURTHER INTO THE AREA. THE
INCREASING MONSOONAL FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BE A PRIME TIME PLAYER IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...NUMEROUS VORTICITY FRAGMENTS SHEARING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN WILL WILL BE INGESTED INTO THE FLOW. THESE INITIAL PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST IOWA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BRING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL HELP BRING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BACK TO IOWA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
DURING THIS TIME AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO A REGION WILL GOOD
INSTABILITY. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE...THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR BECOMES STRONG AS EVIDENCED BY PROJECTED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM SHEAR
AT 30 KTS OR GREATER. POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO TURN INTO A QLCS EVENT
SUNDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH PWATS...INITIAL STORM
MOTIONS OF 20 KTS OR LESS MAY LEAD TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS WELL.

THE PROGRESSION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTH
AS A COLD FRONT AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE KEPT POPS TO A MINIMUM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR ARRIVING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES AROUND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THE AIR MASS REMAINING
RELATIVELY DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 90 TO 100. THIS IS LIKELY THE FAREWELL TOUR OF THE TRUE HEAT
FOR THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2015

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKLY MAINTAIN ITSELF NEAR
KALO/KMCW/KOTM AND EITHER VCSH OR VCTS WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED AS
APPROPRIATE. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...HAVE INCREASED VSBYS TO IFR AT KMCW WITH MORE
MID CLOUDINESS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED POTENTIALLY HOLDING
THINGS BACK. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT/BKN MID OR
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MUCH OF FRI AND FRI EVENING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 040900
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN NE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND...AND
LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS MAY PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THE
EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION AND HOW FAR WEST IT WILL REACH...WITH MODELS
INDICATING A MORE NORTHERLY PUSH TO SYSTEM.

SIMILARLY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
EXPECT WAVE TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AND TRACK
OF WAVE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING SYSTEM NORTH
AND EAST OF CWA. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH FEEL THEY ARE OVERDONE...HAVE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECT BETTER MIXING TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE CLOSE
OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
TEMPERATURE NEAR GOING AND CLOSE TO TEMPS THURSDAY. KEPT TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS MAY HELP KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 90S...THOUGH MAY TOP OUT NEAR 100
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY DEPARTING TO THE
EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL PV IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
SYSTEM. STATIC STABILITY HAS BEEN LOW ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AREA HAS AIDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT A REPEAT WILL NOT OCCUR
AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH THE CIRCULATION CERTAINLY IS WEAKENED BY THAT
TIME AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING FURTHER INTO THE AREA. THE
INCREASING MONSOONAL FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BE A PRIME TIME PLAYER IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...NUMEROUS VORTICITY FRAGMENTS SHEARING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN WILL WILL BE INGESTED INTO THE FLOW. THESE INITIAL PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST IOWA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BRING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL HELP BRING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BACK TO IOWA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
DURING THIS TIME AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO A REGION WILL GOOD
INSTABILITY. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE...THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR BECOMES STRONG AS EVIDENCED BY PROJECTED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM SHEAR
AT 30 KTS OR GREATER. POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO TURN INTO A QLCS EVENT
SUNDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH PWATS...INITIAL STORM
MOTIONS OF 20 KTS OR LESS MAY LEAD TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS WELL.

THE PROGRESSION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTH
AS A COLD FRONT AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE KEPT POPS TO A MINIMUM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR ARRIVING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES AROUND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THE AIR MASS REMAINING
RELATIVELY DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 90 TO 100. THIS IS LIKELY THE FAREWELL TOUR OF THE TRUE HEAT
FOR THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2015

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKLY MAINTAIN ITSELF NEAR
KALO/KMCW/KOTM AND EITHER VCSH OR VCTS WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED AS
APPROPRIATE. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...HAVE INCREASED VSBYS TO IFR AT KMCW WITH MORE
MID CLOUDINESS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED POTENTIALLY HOLDING
THINGS BACK. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT/BKN MID OR
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MUCH OF FRI AND FRI EVENING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 040900
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN NE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND...AND
LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS MAY PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THE
EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION AND HOW FAR WEST IT WILL REACH...WITH MODELS
INDICATING A MORE NORTHERLY PUSH TO SYSTEM.

SIMILARLY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
EXPECT WAVE TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AND TRACK
OF WAVE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING SYSTEM NORTH
AND EAST OF CWA. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH FEEL THEY ARE OVERDONE...HAVE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECT BETTER MIXING TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE CLOSE
OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
TEMPERATURE NEAR GOING AND CLOSE TO TEMPS THURSDAY. KEPT TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS MAY HELP KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 90S...THOUGH MAY TOP OUT NEAR 100
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY DEPARTING TO THE
EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL PV IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
SYSTEM. STATIC STABILITY HAS BEEN LOW ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AREA HAS AIDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT A REPEAT WILL NOT OCCUR
AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH THE CIRCULATION CERTAINLY IS WEAKENED BY THAT
TIME AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING FURTHER INTO THE AREA. THE
INCREASING MONSOONAL FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BE A PRIME TIME PLAYER IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...NUMEROUS VORTICITY FRAGMENTS SHEARING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN WILL WILL BE INGESTED INTO THE FLOW. THESE INITIAL PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST IOWA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BRING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL HELP BRING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BACK TO IOWA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
DURING THIS TIME AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO A REGION WILL GOOD
INSTABILITY. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE...THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR BECOMES STRONG AS EVIDENCED BY PROJECTED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM SHEAR
AT 30 KTS OR GREATER. POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO TURN INTO A QLCS EVENT
SUNDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH PWATS...INITIAL STORM
MOTIONS OF 20 KTS OR LESS MAY LEAD TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS WELL.

THE PROGRESSION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTH
AS A COLD FRONT AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE KEPT POPS TO A MINIMUM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR ARRIVING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES AROUND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THE AIR MASS REMAINING
RELATIVELY DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 90 TO 100. THIS IS LIKELY THE FAREWELL TOUR OF THE TRUE HEAT
FOR THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2015

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKLY MAINTAIN ITSELF NEAR
KALO/KMCW/KOTM AND EITHER VCSH OR VCTS WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED AS
APPROPRIATE. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...HAVE INCREASED VSBYS TO IFR AT KMCW WITH MORE
MID CLOUDINESS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED POTENTIALLY HOLDING
THINGS BACK. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT/BKN MID OR
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MUCH OF FRI AND FRI EVENING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 040900
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
400 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY WILL ONCE AGAIN REVOLVE AROUND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS. EARLY MORNING
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH.
HOWEVER...DEVELOPING CONVECTION IN NE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND...AND
LIFT NORTHEAST. THIS MAY PUSH INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA...AND HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE FAR WEST FOR THE
EARLY MORNING...HOWEVER...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN EXTENT OF
PRECIPITATION AND HOW FAR WEST IT WILL REACH...WITH MODELS
INDICATING A MORE NORTHERLY PUSH TO SYSTEM.

SIMILARLY...A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
EXPECT WAVE TO LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM AND GIVEN THE GENERALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN
PLACE...COULD SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AS WAVE
ARRIVES. HOWEVER...MIDLEVEL MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LACKING AND TRACK
OF WAVE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...WITH SOME MODELS KEEPING SYSTEM NORTH
AND EAST OF CWA. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES...THOUGH FEEL THEY ARE OVERDONE...HAVE
INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDER IN THE NORTHWEST FOR THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

EXPECT BETTER MIXING TODAY...THOUGH TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL BE CLOSE
OR SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN YESTERDAY...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT
TEMPERATURE NEAR GOING AND CLOSE TO TEMPS THURSDAY. KEPT TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE NORTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS MAY HELP KEEP
CONDITIONS COOLER. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AGAIN TODAY WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY IN THE 90S...THOUGH MAY TOP OUT NEAR 100
DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 358 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER LOWER MICHIGAN WILL REMAIN
SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE FINALLY DEPARTING TO THE
EAST. THIS SYSTEM HAS SEVERAL PV IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND THE
SYSTEM. STATIC STABILITY HAS BEEN LOW ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THIS
AREA HAS AIDED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST EARLY
THIS MORNING. NOT COMPLETELY CONFIDENT THAT A REPEAT WILL NOT OCCUR
AGAIN TONIGHT THOUGH THE CIRCULATION CERTAINLY IS WEAKENED BY THAT
TIME AND THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BE PUSHING FURTHER INTO THE AREA. THE
INCREASING MONSOONAL FLOW AS THE UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BE A PRIME TIME PLAYER IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES
THROUGH SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO GOOD MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE
REGION...NUMEROUS VORTICITY FRAGMENTS SHEARING OFF OF TROPICAL STORM
KEVIN WILL WILL BE INGESTED INTO THE FLOW. THESE INITIAL PIECES OF
ENERGY WILL IMPACT NORTHWEST IOWA BY LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BRING INCREASING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES. THE MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL HELP BRING PWATS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES BACK TO IOWA
BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE
DURING THIS TIME AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO A REGION WILL GOOD
INSTABILITY. WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN THE 30 TO 35 KT
RANGE...THE LOW LEVEL SHEAR BECOMES STRONG AS EVIDENCED BY PROJECTED
EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYER SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2 AND 0-3 KM SHEAR
AT 30 KTS OR GREATER. POTENTIAL FOR THIS TO TURN INTO A QLCS EVENT
SUNDAY EVENING. IN ADDITION TO THE HIGH PWATS...INITIAL STORM
MOTIONS OF 20 KTS OR LESS MAY LEAD TO A HEAVY RAIN THREAT AS WELL.

THE PROGRESSION TO ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE MONDAY. THE SFC BOUNDARY
WILL LIFT BACK NORTH BRIEFLY MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING BACK SOUTH
AS A COLD FRONT AND WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
HAVE KEPT POPS TO A MINIMUM TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR DRIER AIR ARRIVING WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE.
ANOTHER PUSH OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES AROUND THURSDAY. AT THIS TIME THE
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL IS LOW WITH THE AIR MASS REMAINING
RELATIVELY DRY. OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THROUGH
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
OF 90 TO 100. THIS IS LIKELY THE FAREWELL TOUR OF THE TRUE HEAT
FOR THE YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2015

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKLY MAINTAIN ITSELF NEAR
KALO/KMCW/KOTM AND EITHER VCSH OR VCTS WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED AS
APPROPRIATE. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...HAVE INCREASED VSBYS TO IFR AT KMCW WITH MORE
MID CLOUDINESS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED POTENTIALLY HOLDING
THINGS BACK. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT/BKN MID OR
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MUCH OF FRI AND FRI EVENING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 040506
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1206 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED N CENTRAL TO E
CENTRAL IA. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON LEADING EDGE OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION...LIKELY ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH ABOVE 2KM BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE ONLY ADDED A FEW HOURS AT THIS
POINT...BUT MAY HAVE TO EXTEND AS IT MAY MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE
NIGHT WITH TYPICAL NOCTURNAL WARM ADVECTION CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES AND FOG
POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN IOWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FINALLY REACH
THE CROSSOVER TEMP BY B/T 07-09Z OVER THE NORTH AND LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NAM/SREF SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING FROM
MOW TO EST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 20. THE CAVEAT IS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA MAY BRING IN SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG ATOM. THE LATEST HRRR (03.18Z) AND EVEN THE GFS HAVE A HINT
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO THE LAW DEVELOPING AND ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINKING THE NAM/ECMWF HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON TIMING AND LOCATION AND LEFT FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE MID/LONG RANGE
WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN US. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT OVERALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS SMALL SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
WESTERN US TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES BY LATE SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BECOMING ORIENTED INTO WESTERN IOWA. MAY SEE SOME
STORMS BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT OVERALL
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL ELIMINATE THE CURRENT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AS
H85 TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT. LONG RANGE IN MODELS
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOW FAST TO PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTH...WITH THE EC HANGING THE FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. GFS TRIES TO
PUSH IT INTO MISSOURI...WHICH WOULD KEEP IOWA DRIER MONDAY. FULL
 WESTERN US TROUGH TO SHOVE EAST TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT LIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER CATEGORY INTO THE LOW
TEENS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS
DO HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH CLIPPING NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHEASTERN IOWA. HAVE A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE
RELEGATED POPS MAINLY TO THE TIME PERIODS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2015

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKLY MAINTAIN ITSELF NEAR
KALO/KMCW/KOTM AND EITHER VCSH OR VCTS WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED AS
APPROPRIATE. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...HAVE INCREASED VSBYS TO IFR AT KMCW WITH MORE
MID CLOUDINESS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED POTENTIALLY HOLDING
THINGS BACK. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT/BKN MID OR
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MUCH OF FRI AND FRI EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 040506
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1206 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED N CENTRAL TO E
CENTRAL IA. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON LEADING EDGE OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION...LIKELY ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH ABOVE 2KM BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE ONLY ADDED A FEW HOURS AT THIS
POINT...BUT MAY HAVE TO EXTEND AS IT MAY MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE
NIGHT WITH TYPICAL NOCTURNAL WARM ADVECTION CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES AND FOG
POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN IOWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FINALLY REACH
THE CROSSOVER TEMP BY B/T 07-09Z OVER THE NORTH AND LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NAM/SREF SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING FROM
MOW TO EST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 20. THE CAVEAT IS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA MAY BRING IN SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG ATOM. THE LATEST HRRR (03.18Z) AND EVEN THE GFS HAVE A HINT
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO THE LAW DEVELOPING AND ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINKING THE NAM/ECMWF HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON TIMING AND LOCATION AND LEFT FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE MID/LONG RANGE
WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN US. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT OVERALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS SMALL SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
WESTERN US TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES BY LATE SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BECOMING ORIENTED INTO WESTERN IOWA. MAY SEE SOME
STORMS BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT OVERALL
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL ELIMINATE THE CURRENT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AS
H85 TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT. LONG RANGE IN MODELS
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOW FAST TO PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTH...WITH THE EC HANGING THE FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. GFS TRIES TO
PUSH IT INTO MISSOURI...WHICH WOULD KEEP IOWA DRIER MONDAY. FULL
 WESTERN US TROUGH TO SHOVE EAST TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT LIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER CATEGORY INTO THE LOW
TEENS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS
DO HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH CLIPPING NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHEASTERN IOWA. HAVE A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE
RELEGATED POPS MAINLY TO THE TIME PERIODS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2015

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKLY MAINTAIN ITSELF NEAR
KALO/KMCW/KOTM AND EITHER VCSH OR VCTS WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED AS
APPROPRIATE. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...HAVE INCREASED VSBYS TO IFR AT KMCW WITH MORE
MID CLOUDINESS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED POTENTIALLY HOLDING
THINGS BACK. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT/BKN MID OR
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MUCH OF FRI AND FRI EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 040506
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1206 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED N CENTRAL TO E
CENTRAL IA. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON LEADING EDGE OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION...LIKELY ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH ABOVE 2KM BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE ONLY ADDED A FEW HOURS AT THIS
POINT...BUT MAY HAVE TO EXTEND AS IT MAY MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE
NIGHT WITH TYPICAL NOCTURNAL WARM ADVECTION CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES AND FOG
POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN IOWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FINALLY REACH
THE CROSSOVER TEMP BY B/T 07-09Z OVER THE NORTH AND LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NAM/SREF SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING FROM
MOW TO EST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 20. THE CAVEAT IS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA MAY BRING IN SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG ATOM. THE LATEST HRRR (03.18Z) AND EVEN THE GFS HAVE A HINT
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO THE LAW DEVELOPING AND ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINKING THE NAM/ECMWF HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON TIMING AND LOCATION AND LEFT FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE MID/LONG RANGE
WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN US. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT OVERALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS SMALL SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
WESTERN US TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES BY LATE SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BECOMING ORIENTED INTO WESTERN IOWA. MAY SEE SOME
STORMS BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT OVERALL
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL ELIMINATE THE CURRENT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AS
H85 TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT. LONG RANGE IN MODELS
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOW FAST TO PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTH...WITH THE EC HANGING THE FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. GFS TRIES TO
PUSH IT INTO MISSOURI...WHICH WOULD KEEP IOWA DRIER MONDAY. FULL
 WESTERN US TROUGH TO SHOVE EAST TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT LIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER CATEGORY INTO THE LOW
TEENS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS
DO HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH CLIPPING NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHEASTERN IOWA. HAVE A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE
RELEGATED POPS MAINLY TO THE TIME PERIODS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2015

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKLY MAINTAIN ITSELF NEAR
KALO/KMCW/KOTM AND EITHER VCSH OR VCTS WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED AS
APPROPRIATE. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...HAVE INCREASED VSBYS TO IFR AT KMCW WITH MORE
MID CLOUDINESS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED POTENTIALLY HOLDING
THINGS BACK. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT/BKN MID OR
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MUCH OF FRI AND FRI EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 040506
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1206 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED N CENTRAL TO E
CENTRAL IA. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON LEADING EDGE OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION...LIKELY ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH ABOVE 2KM BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE ONLY ADDED A FEW HOURS AT THIS
POINT...BUT MAY HAVE TO EXTEND AS IT MAY MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE
NIGHT WITH TYPICAL NOCTURNAL WARM ADVECTION CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES AND FOG
POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN IOWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FINALLY REACH
THE CROSSOVER TEMP BY B/T 07-09Z OVER THE NORTH AND LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NAM/SREF SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING FROM
MOW TO EST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 20. THE CAVEAT IS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA MAY BRING IN SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG ATOM. THE LATEST HRRR (03.18Z) AND EVEN THE GFS HAVE A HINT
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO THE LAW DEVELOPING AND ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINKING THE NAM/ECMWF HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON TIMING AND LOCATION AND LEFT FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE MID/LONG RANGE
WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN US. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT OVERALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS SMALL SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
WESTERN US TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES BY LATE SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BECOMING ORIENTED INTO WESTERN IOWA. MAY SEE SOME
STORMS BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT OVERALL
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL ELIMINATE THE CURRENT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AS
H85 TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT. LONG RANGE IN MODELS
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOW FAST TO PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTH...WITH THE EC HANGING THE FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. GFS TRIES TO
PUSH IT INTO MISSOURI...WHICH WOULD KEEP IOWA DRIER MONDAY. FULL
 WESTERN US TROUGH TO SHOVE EAST TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT LIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER CATEGORY INTO THE LOW
TEENS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS
DO HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH CLIPPING NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHEASTERN IOWA. HAVE A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE
RELEGATED POPS MAINLY TO THE TIME PERIODS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1206 AM CDT FRI SEP 3 2015

ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO WEAKLY MAINTAIN ITSELF NEAR
KALO/KMCW/KOTM AND EITHER VCSH OR VCTS WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED AS
APPROPRIATE. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS FOR RADIATION FOG ARE STILL
SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE...HAVE INCREASED VSBYS TO IFR AT KMCW WITH MORE
MID CLOUDINESS THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED POTENTIALLY HOLDING
THINGS BACK. OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH SCT/BKN MID OR
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MUCH OF FRI AND FRI EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 040003
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
703 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED N CENTRAL TO E
CENTRAL IA. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON LEADING EDGE OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION...LIKELY ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH ABOVE 2KM BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE ONLY ADDED A FEW HOURS AT THIS
POINT...BUT MAY HAVE TO EXTEND AS IT MAY MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE
NIGHT WITH TYPICAL NOCTURNAL WARM ADVECTION CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES AND FOG
POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN IOWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FINALLY REACH
THE CROSSOVER TEMP BY B/T 07-09Z OVER THE NORTH AND LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NAM/SREF SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING FROM
MOW TO EST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 20. THE CAVEAT IS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA MAY BRING IN SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG ATOM. THE LATEST HRRR (03.18Z) AND EVEN THE GFS HAVE A HINT
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO THE LAW DEVELOPING AND ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINKING THE NAM/ECMWF HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON TIMING AND LOCATION AND LEFT FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE MID/LONG RANGE
WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN US. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT OVERALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS SMALL SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
WESTERN US TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES BY LATE SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BECOMING ORIENTED INTO WESTERN IOWA. MAY SEE SOME
STORMS BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT OVERALL
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL ELIMINATE THE CURRENT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AS
H85 TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT. LONG RANGE IN MODELS
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOW FAST TO PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTH...WITH THE EC HANGING THE FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. GFS TRIES TO
PUSH IT INTO MISSOURI...WHICH WOULD KEEP IOWA DRIER MONDAY. FULL
 WESTERN US TROUGH TO SHOVE EAST TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT LIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER CATEGORY INTO THE LOW
TEENS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS
DO HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH CLIPPING NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHEASTERN IOWA. HAVE A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE
RELEGATED POPS MAINLY TO THE TIME PERIODS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONLY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL
NORTH IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT ALONG IA/MN BORDER. HAVE
ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE AT KMCW WITH CONDITIONS
LIKELY DETERIORATING TO LIFR AGAIN. COULD BE EVEN WORSE WITH LESS
MIXING TODAY BUT DID NOT WANT TO BE THAT AGGRESSIVE AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH NOTHING BEYOND SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS AT
OTHER LOCATIONS. CURRENT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOT AFFECTING TAF
SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...CURTIS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 040003
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
703 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED N CENTRAL TO E
CENTRAL IA. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON LEADING EDGE OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION...LIKELY ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH ABOVE 2KM BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE ONLY ADDED A FEW HOURS AT THIS
POINT...BUT MAY HAVE TO EXTEND AS IT MAY MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE
NIGHT WITH TYPICAL NOCTURNAL WARM ADVECTION CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES AND FOG
POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN IOWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FINALLY REACH
THE CROSSOVER TEMP BY B/T 07-09Z OVER THE NORTH AND LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NAM/SREF SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING FROM
MOW TO EST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 20. THE CAVEAT IS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA MAY BRING IN SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG ATOM. THE LATEST HRRR (03.18Z) AND EVEN THE GFS HAVE A HINT
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO THE LAW DEVELOPING AND ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINKING THE NAM/ECMWF HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON TIMING AND LOCATION AND LEFT FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE MID/LONG RANGE
WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN US. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT OVERALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS SMALL SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
WESTERN US TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES BY LATE SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BECOMING ORIENTED INTO WESTERN IOWA. MAY SEE SOME
STORMS BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT OVERALL
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL ELIMINATE THE CURRENT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AS
H85 TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT. LONG RANGE IN MODELS
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOW FAST TO PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTH...WITH THE EC HANGING THE FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. GFS TRIES TO
PUSH IT INTO MISSOURI...WHICH WOULD KEEP IOWA DRIER MONDAY. FULL
 WESTERN US TROUGH TO SHOVE EAST TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT LIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER CATEGORY INTO THE LOW
TEENS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS
DO HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH CLIPPING NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHEASTERN IOWA. HAVE A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE
RELEGATED POPS MAINLY TO THE TIME PERIODS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONLY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL
NORTH IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT ALONG IA/MN BORDER. HAVE
ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE AT KMCW WITH CONDITIONS
LIKELY DETERIORATING TO LIFR AGAIN. COULD BE EVEN WORSE WITH LESS
MIXING TODAY BUT DID NOT WANT TO BE THAT AGGRESSIVE AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH NOTHING BEYOND SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS AT
OTHER LOCATIONS. CURRENT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOT AFFECTING TAF
SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...CURTIS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 040003
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
703 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED N CENTRAL TO E
CENTRAL IA. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON LEADING EDGE OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION...LIKELY ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH ABOVE 2KM BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE ONLY ADDED A FEW HOURS AT THIS
POINT...BUT MAY HAVE TO EXTEND AS IT MAY MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE
NIGHT WITH TYPICAL NOCTURNAL WARM ADVECTION CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES AND FOG
POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN IOWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FINALLY REACH
THE CROSSOVER TEMP BY B/T 07-09Z OVER THE NORTH AND LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NAM/SREF SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING FROM
MOW TO EST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 20. THE CAVEAT IS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA MAY BRING IN SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG ATOM. THE LATEST HRRR (03.18Z) AND EVEN THE GFS HAVE A HINT
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO THE LAW DEVELOPING AND ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINKING THE NAM/ECMWF HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON TIMING AND LOCATION AND LEFT FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE MID/LONG RANGE
WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN US. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT OVERALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS SMALL SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
WESTERN US TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES BY LATE SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BECOMING ORIENTED INTO WESTERN IOWA. MAY SEE SOME
STORMS BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT OVERALL
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL ELIMINATE THE CURRENT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AS
H85 TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT. LONG RANGE IN MODELS
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOW FAST TO PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTH...WITH THE EC HANGING THE FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. GFS TRIES TO
PUSH IT INTO MISSOURI...WHICH WOULD KEEP IOWA DRIER MONDAY. FULL
 WESTERN US TROUGH TO SHOVE EAST TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT LIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER CATEGORY INTO THE LOW
TEENS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS
DO HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH CLIPPING NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHEASTERN IOWA. HAVE A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE
RELEGATED POPS MAINLY TO THE TIME PERIODS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONLY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL
NORTH IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT ALONG IA/MN BORDER. HAVE
ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE AT KMCW WITH CONDITIONS
LIKELY DETERIORATING TO LIFR AGAIN. COULD BE EVEN WORSE WITH LESS
MIXING TODAY BUT DID NOT WANT TO BE THAT AGGRESSIVE AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH NOTHING BEYOND SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS AT
OTHER LOCATIONS. CURRENT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOT AFFECTING TAF
SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...CURTIS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 040003
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
703 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 656 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ISOLATED SHOWER/STORM WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED N CENTRAL TO E
CENTRAL IA. ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ON LEADING EDGE OF
WEAK WARM ADVECTION...LIKELY ROOTED FAIRLY HIGH ABOVE 2KM BASED ON
FORECAST SOUNDINGS. HAVE ONLY ADDED A FEW HOURS AT THIS
POINT...BUT MAY HAVE TO EXTEND AS IT MAY MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE
NIGHT WITH TYPICAL NOCTURNAL WARM ADVECTION CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES AND FOG
POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN IOWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FINALLY REACH
THE CROSSOVER TEMP BY B/T 07-09Z OVER THE NORTH AND LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NAM/SREF SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING FROM
MOW TO EST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 20. THE CAVEAT IS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA MAY BRING IN SOME
HIGHER CLOUDS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED PATCHY
FOG ATOM. THE LATEST HRRR (03.18Z) AND EVEN THE GFS HAVE A HINT
OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING
IN RESPONSE TO THE LAW DEVELOPING AND ASSOCIATED WITH
AFOREMENTIONED WEAK SHORTWAVE. THINKING THE NAM/ECMWF HAS A BETTER
HANDLE ON TIMING AND LOCATION AND LEFT FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE MID/LONG RANGE
WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN US. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT OVERALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS SMALL SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
WESTERN US TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES BY LATE SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BECOMING ORIENTED INTO WESTERN IOWA. MAY SEE SOME
STORMS BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT OVERALL
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL ELIMINATE THE CURRENT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AS
H85 TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT. LONG RANGE IN MODELS
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOW FAST TO PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTH...WITH THE EC HANGING THE FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. GFS TRIES TO
PUSH IT INTO MISSOURI...WHICH WOULD KEEP IOWA DRIER MONDAY. FULL
 WESTERN US TROUGH TO SHOVE EAST TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT LIFTING
BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY
BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER CATEGORY INTO THE LOW
TEENS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS
DO HINT AT A WEAK TROUGH CLIPPING NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY WHICH
COULD BRING SOME SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHEASTERN IOWA. HAVE A
SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE
RELEGATED POPS MAINLY TO THE TIME PERIODS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGES WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

ONLY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE RADIATION FOG POTENTIAL
NORTH IN VICINITY OF WARM FRONT ALONG IA/MN BORDER. HAVE
ESSENTIALLY FOLLOWED PERSISTENCE AT KMCW WITH CONDITIONS
LIKELY DETERIORATING TO LIFR AGAIN. COULD BE EVEN WORSE WITH LESS
MIXING TODAY BUT DID NOT WANT TO BE THAT AGGRESSIVE AT THIS POINT.
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR WITH NOTHING BEYOND SCT/BKN MID CLOUDS AT
OTHER LOCATIONS. CURRENT ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOT AFFECTING TAF
SITES AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY FOR THE SHORT TERM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...CURTIS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 032032
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES AND FOG
POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN IOWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FINALLY REACH
THE CROSSOVER TEMP BY B/T 07-09Z OVER THE NORTH AND LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NAM/SREF SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING FROM
MCW TO EST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 20. THE CAVEAT IS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA MAY BRING IN SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED PATCHY FOG ATTM.
THE LATEST HRRR (03.18Z) AND EVEN THE GFS HAVE A HINT OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
THE LLJ DEVELOPING AND ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
SHORTWAVE. THINKING THE NAM/ECMWF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING AND
LOCATION AND LEFT FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE MID/LONG RANGE
WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN US. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT OVERALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS SMALL SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
WESTERN US TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES BY LATE SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BECOMING ORIENTED INTO WESTERN IOWA. MAY SEE SOME
STORMS BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT OVERALL
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL ELIMINATE THE CURRENT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AS
H85 TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT. LONG RANGE IN MODELS
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOW FAST TO PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTH...WITH THE EC HANGING THE FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. GFS TRIES TO
PUSH IT INTO MISSOURI...WHICH WOULD KEEP IOWA DRIER MONDAY. FULL
LONGWAVE WESTERN US TROUGH TO SHOVE EAST TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER CATEGORY INTO THE LOW
TEENS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK
TROUGH CLIPPING NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHEASTERN IOWA. HAVE A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POP FOR THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE RELEGATED POPS MAINLY TO THE
TIME PERIODS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGES WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL
MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FIRMLY PLANTED ABOVE...ANYTHING OF
CONSEQUENCE WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME LOCALIZED FOG TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
WITH HRRR DEPICTING OTHERWISE AND LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT
OTHERWISE...HAVE KEPT FOG MENTIONS OUT FOR THIS ITERATION.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...CURTIS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 032032
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES AND FOG
POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN IOWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FINALLY REACH
THE CROSSOVER TEMP BY B/T 07-09Z OVER THE NORTH AND LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NAM/SREF SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING FROM
MCW TO EST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 20. THE CAVEAT IS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA MAY BRING IN SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED PATCHY FOG ATTM.
THE LATEST HRRR (03.18Z) AND EVEN THE GFS HAVE A HINT OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
THE LLJ DEVELOPING AND ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
SHORTWAVE. THINKING THE NAM/ECMWF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING AND
LOCATION AND LEFT FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE MID/LONG RANGE
WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN US. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT OVERALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS SMALL SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
WESTERN US TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES BY LATE SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BECOMING ORIENTED INTO WESTERN IOWA. MAY SEE SOME
STORMS BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT OVERALL
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL ELIMINATE THE CURRENT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AS
H85 TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT. LONG RANGE IN MODELS
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOW FAST TO PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTH...WITH THE EC HANGING THE FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. GFS TRIES TO
PUSH IT INTO MISSOURI...WHICH WOULD KEEP IOWA DRIER MONDAY. FULL
LONGWAVE WESTERN US TROUGH TO SHOVE EAST TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER CATEGORY INTO THE LOW
TEENS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK
TROUGH CLIPPING NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHEASTERN IOWA. HAVE A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POP FOR THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE RELEGATED POPS MAINLY TO THE
TIME PERIODS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGES WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL
MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FIRMLY PLANTED ABOVE...ANYTHING OF
CONSEQUENCE WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME LOCALIZED FOG TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
WITH HRRR DEPICTING OTHERWISE AND LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT
OTHERWISE...HAVE KEPT FOG MENTIONS OUT FOR THIS ITERATION.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...CURTIS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 032032
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES AND FOG
POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN IOWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FINALLY REACH
THE CROSSOVER TEMP BY B/T 07-09Z OVER THE NORTH AND LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NAM/SREF SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING FROM
MCW TO EST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 20. THE CAVEAT IS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA MAY BRING IN SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED PATCHY FOG ATTM.
THE LATEST HRRR (03.18Z) AND EVEN THE GFS HAVE A HINT OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
THE LLJ DEVELOPING AND ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
SHORTWAVE. THINKING THE NAM/ECMWF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING AND
LOCATION AND LEFT FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE MID/LONG RANGE
WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN US. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT OVERALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS SMALL SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
WESTERN US TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES BY LATE SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BECOMING ORIENTED INTO WESTERN IOWA. MAY SEE SOME
STORMS BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT OVERALL
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL ELIMINATE THE CURRENT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AS
H85 TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT. LONG RANGE IN MODELS
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOW FAST TO PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTH...WITH THE EC HANGING THE FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. GFS TRIES TO
PUSH IT INTO MISSOURI...WHICH WOULD KEEP IOWA DRIER MONDAY. FULL
LONGWAVE WESTERN US TROUGH TO SHOVE EAST TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER CATEGORY INTO THE LOW
TEENS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK
TROUGH CLIPPING NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHEASTERN IOWA. HAVE A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POP FOR THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE RELEGATED POPS MAINLY TO THE
TIME PERIODS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGES WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL
MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FIRMLY PLANTED ABOVE...ANYTHING OF
CONSEQUENCE WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME LOCALIZED FOG TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
WITH HRRR DEPICTING OTHERWISE AND LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT
OTHERWISE...HAVE KEPT FOG MENTIONS OUT FOR THIS ITERATION.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...CURTIS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 032032
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WAS FOCUSED ON TEMPERATURES AND FOG
POTENTIAL OVER NORTHERN IOWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS LOOK TO FINALLY REACH
THE CROSSOVER TEMP BY B/T 07-09Z OVER THE NORTH AND LIKELY SEE FOG
DEVELOP DURING THAT TIME FRAME. NAM/SREF SUGGEST FOG DEVELOPING FROM
MCW TO EST AND POSSIBLY AS FAR SOUTH AS HIGHWAY 20. THE CAVEAT IS A
WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER NEBRASKA/SOUTH DAKOTA MAY BRING IN SOME HIGHER
CLOUDS TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING...SO ONLY MENTIONED PATCHY FOG ATTM.
THE LATEST HRRR (03.18Z) AND EVEN THE GFS HAVE A HINT OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING IN RESPONSE TO
THE LLJ DEVELOPING AND ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED WEAK
SHORTWAVE. THINKING THE NAM/ECMWF HAS A BETTER HANDLE ON TIMING AND
LOCATION AND LEFT FORECAST DRY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PATTERN REMAINS SIMILAR THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE MID/LONG RANGE
WITH UPPER RIDGING IN PLACE ALOFT WITH A TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
WESTERN US. A FEW WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME INCREASED CLOUDINESS...BUT OVERALL
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION IS SMALL SO HAVE A DRY FORECAST INTO
SATURDAY. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO FLATTEN SOME OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
WESTERN US TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVINCES BY LATE SUNDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT BECOMING ORIENTED INTO WESTERN IOWA. MAY SEE SOME
STORMS BUBBLE UP ACROSS THE WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN CWA...BUT OVERALL
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES NOT EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CANADIAN SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONT WILL ELIMINATE THE CURRENT HOT AND MUGGY CONDITIONS...AS
H85 TEMPS DROP INTO THE TEENS BEHIND THE FRONT. LONG RANGE IN MODELS
IN SOME DISAGREEMENT INTO NEXT WEEK WITH HOW FAST TO PUSH THE FRONT
SOUTH...WITH THE EC HANGING THE FRONT UP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA WITH
CHANCES FOR STORMS CONTINUING INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. GFS TRIES TO
PUSH IT INTO MISSOURI...WHICH WOULD KEEP IOWA DRIER MONDAY. FULL
LONGWAVE WESTERN US TROUGH TO SHOVE EAST TUESDAY WITH THE FRONT
LIFTING BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT LATE MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY BEFORE A STRONGER COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. H85 TEMPS TO DROP ANOTHER CATEGORY INTO THE LOW
TEENS BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS FOR
MUCH OF WEDNESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS DO HINT AT A WEAK
TROUGH CLIPPING NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY WHICH COULD BRING SOME
SPRINKLES TO MAINLY NORTHEASTERN IOWA. HAVE A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT
CHANCE POP FOR THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE RELEGATED POPS MAINLY TO THE
TIME PERIODS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGES WITH TEMPS EXPECTED TO FALL
MORE TOWARD OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FIRMLY PLANTED ABOVE...ANYTHING OF
CONSEQUENCE WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME LOCALIZED FOG TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
WITH HRRR DEPICTING OTHERWISE AND LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT
OTHERWISE...HAVE KEPT FOG MENTIONS OUT FOR THIS ITERATION.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...CURTIS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 031736
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1236 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY WILL BE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. HAVE SEEN
DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING LIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF STATE...GENERALLY ALONG THE NOSE OF LLJ...AND EXPECT
THIS PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z AS FORCING DIMINISHES. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HIGH RES SOLUTIONS...THOUGH MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH EXTENT OF NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION AND PERSISTENCE.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE DECENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A WEAK CAP
WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF CWA.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY...WITH BEST FORCING FURTHER EAST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE AND MAY SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA.

HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...TOWARDS THE HIGHER GUIDANCE.
WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY 95-100 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW MORE DAYS OF SUMMER WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY HOWEVER CHANGE IS ON THE WAY. SEVERAL FEATURES
TO MONITOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE THE INCREASING
MONSOONAL FLOW AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FLOW ENHANCE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION AND ALSO WILL INGEST TROPICAL VORTICITY FRAGMENTS FROM
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM KEVIN. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.

THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EVOLUTION TO A MORE FALL LIKE
PATTERN THAT OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
SUPPRESSES TO SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL HELP DRIVE THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
STATE. THIS WILL PLACE THE MIDWEST IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW
NEXT WEEK. THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO
FAR SOUTH DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW AND WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY. A STRONGER BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. EVEN COOLER AIR IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE JUST BEYOND THE
EXTENDED AND LIKELY SIGNALS THE END TO THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR
THE YEAR BEYOND THIS WEEKEND. WITH SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN AND STRONG
SYSTEMS...CAN NOT DISCOUNT A FEW SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FIRMLY PLANTED ABOVE...ANYTHING OF
CONSEQUENCE WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME LOCALIZED FOG TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
WITH HRRR DEPICTING OTHERWISE AND LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT
OTHERWISE...HAVE KEPT FOG MENTIONS OUT FOR THIS ITERATION.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...CURTIS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 031736
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1236 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

...18Z AVIATION UPDATE...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY WILL BE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. HAVE SEEN
DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING LIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF STATE...GENERALLY ALONG THE NOSE OF LLJ...AND EXPECT
THIS PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z AS FORCING DIMINISHES. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HIGH RES SOLUTIONS...THOUGH MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH EXTENT OF NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION AND PERSISTENCE.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE DECENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A WEAK CAP
WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF CWA.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY...WITH BEST FORCING FURTHER EAST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE AND MAY SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA.

HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...TOWARDS THE HIGHER GUIDANCE.
WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY 95-100 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW MORE DAYS OF SUMMER WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY HOWEVER CHANGE IS ON THE WAY. SEVERAL FEATURES
TO MONITOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE THE INCREASING
MONSOONAL FLOW AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FLOW ENHANCE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION AND ALSO WILL INGEST TROPICAL VORTICITY FRAGMENTS FROM
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM KEVIN. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.

THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EVOLUTION TO A MORE FALL LIKE
PATTERN THAT OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
SUPPRESSES TO SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL HELP DRIVE THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
STATE. THIS WILL PLACE THE MIDWEST IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW
NEXT WEEK. THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO
FAR SOUTH DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW AND WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY. A STRONGER BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. EVEN COOLER AIR IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE JUST BEYOND THE
EXTENDED AND LIKELY SIGNALS THE END TO THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR
THE YEAR BEYOND THIS WEEKEND. WITH SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN AND STRONG
SYSTEMS...CAN NOT DISCOUNT A FEW SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1229 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

WITH THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FIRMLY PLANTED ABOVE...ANYTHING OF
CONSEQUENCE WILL STAY TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE TAF SITES.
MODEL SOUNDINGS HINT AT SOME LOCALIZED FOG TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
WITH HRRR DEPICTING OTHERWISE AND LITTLE CHANGE OVERNIGHT
OTHERWISE...HAVE KEPT FOG MENTIONS OUT FOR THIS ITERATION.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...CURTIS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 031136
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
636 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY WILL BE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. HAVE SEEN
DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING LIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF STATE...GENERALLY ALONG THE NOSE OF LLJ...AND EXPECT
THIS PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z AS FORCING DIMINISHES. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HIGH RES SOLUTIONS...THOUGH MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH EXTENT OF NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION AND PERSISTENCE.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE DECENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A WEAK CAP
WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF CWA.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY...WITH BEST FORCING FURTHER EAST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE AND MAY SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA.

HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...TOWARDS THE HIGHER GUIDANCE.
WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY 95-100 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW MORE DAYS OF SUMMER WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY HOWEVER CHANGE IS ON THE WAY. SEVERAL FEATURES
TO MONITOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE THE INCREASING
MONSOONAL FLOW AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FLOW ENHANCE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION AND ALSO WILL INGEST TROPICAL VORTICITY FRAGMENTS FROM
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM KEVIN. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.

THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EVOLUTION TO A MORE FALL LIKE
PATTERN THAT OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
SUPPRESSES TO SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL HELP DRIVE THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
STATE. THIS WILL PLACE THE MIDWEST IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW
NEXT WEEK. THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO
FAR SOUTH DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW AND WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY. A STRONGER BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. EVEN COOLER AIR IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE JUST BEYOND THE
EXTENDED AND LIKELY SIGNALS THE END TO THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR
THE YEAR BEYOND THIS WEEKEND. WITH SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN AND STRONG
SYSTEMS...CAN NOT DISCOUNT A FEW SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MVFR BR AT KMCW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. WILL
SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT SITES THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY...STRONG THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER
18Z...BEFORE DECREASING AFTER 00Z. MAY SEE MVFR OR LOWER BR/HZ AT
SITES AGAIN NEAR 12Z...BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT ATTM DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 031136
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
636 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY WILL BE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. HAVE SEEN
DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING LIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF STATE...GENERALLY ALONG THE NOSE OF LLJ...AND EXPECT
THIS PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z AS FORCING DIMINISHES. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HIGH RES SOLUTIONS...THOUGH MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH EXTENT OF NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION AND PERSISTENCE.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE DECENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A WEAK CAP
WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF CWA.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY...WITH BEST FORCING FURTHER EAST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE AND MAY SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA.

HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...TOWARDS THE HIGHER GUIDANCE.
WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY 95-100 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW MORE DAYS OF SUMMER WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY HOWEVER CHANGE IS ON THE WAY. SEVERAL FEATURES
TO MONITOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE THE INCREASING
MONSOONAL FLOW AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FLOW ENHANCE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION AND ALSO WILL INGEST TROPICAL VORTICITY FRAGMENTS FROM
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM KEVIN. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.

THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EVOLUTION TO A MORE FALL LIKE
PATTERN THAT OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
SUPPRESSES TO SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL HELP DRIVE THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
STATE. THIS WILL PLACE THE MIDWEST IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW
NEXT WEEK. THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO
FAR SOUTH DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW AND WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY. A STRONGER BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. EVEN COOLER AIR IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE JUST BEYOND THE
EXTENDED AND LIKELY SIGNALS THE END TO THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR
THE YEAR BEYOND THIS WEEKEND. WITH SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN AND STRONG
SYSTEMS...CAN NOT DISCOUNT A FEW SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MVFR BR AT KMCW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. WILL
SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT SITES THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY...STRONG THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER
18Z...BEFORE DECREASING AFTER 00Z. MAY SEE MVFR OR LOWER BR/HZ AT
SITES AGAIN NEAR 12Z...BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT ATTM DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 031136
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
636 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY WILL BE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. HAVE SEEN
DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING LIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF STATE...GENERALLY ALONG THE NOSE OF LLJ...AND EXPECT
THIS PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z AS FORCING DIMINISHES. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HIGH RES SOLUTIONS...THOUGH MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH EXTENT OF NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION AND PERSISTENCE.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE DECENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A WEAK CAP
WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF CWA.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY...WITH BEST FORCING FURTHER EAST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE AND MAY SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA.

HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...TOWARDS THE HIGHER GUIDANCE.
WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY 95-100 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW MORE DAYS OF SUMMER WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY HOWEVER CHANGE IS ON THE WAY. SEVERAL FEATURES
TO MONITOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE THE INCREASING
MONSOONAL FLOW AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FLOW ENHANCE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION AND ALSO WILL INGEST TROPICAL VORTICITY FRAGMENTS FROM
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM KEVIN. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.

THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EVOLUTION TO A MORE FALL LIKE
PATTERN THAT OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
SUPPRESSES TO SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL HELP DRIVE THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
STATE. THIS WILL PLACE THE MIDWEST IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW
NEXT WEEK. THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO
FAR SOUTH DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW AND WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY. A STRONGER BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. EVEN COOLER AIR IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE JUST BEYOND THE
EXTENDED AND LIKELY SIGNALS THE END TO THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR
THE YEAR BEYOND THIS WEEKEND. WITH SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN AND STRONG
SYSTEMS...CAN NOT DISCOUNT A FEW SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

MVFR BR AT KMCW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS SHORTLY AFTER 12Z. WILL
SEE VFR CONDITIONS AT SITES THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY...STRONG THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS POSSIBLE AFTER
18Z...BEFORE DECREASING AFTER 00Z. MAY SEE MVFR OR LOWER BR/HZ AT
SITES AGAIN NEAR 12Z...BUT HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT ATTM DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 030839
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
339 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY WILL BE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. HAVE SEEN
DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING LIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF STATE...GENERALLY ALONG THE NOSE OF LLJ...AND EXPECT
THIS PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z AS FORCING DIMINISHES. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HIGH RES SOLUTIONS...THOUGH MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH EXTENT OF NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION AND PERSISTENCE.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE DECENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A WEAK CAP
WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF CWA.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY...WITH BEST FORCING FURTHER EAST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE AND MAY SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA.

HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...TOWARDS THE HIGHER GUIDANCE.
WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY 95-100 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW MORE DAYS OF SUMMER WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY HOWEVER CHANGE IS ON THE WAY. SEVERAL FEATURES
TO MONITOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE THE INCREASING
MONSOONAL FLOW AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FLOW ENHANCE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION AND ALSO WILL INGEST TROPICAL VORTICITY FRAGMENTS FROM
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.

THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EVOLUTION TO A MORE FALL LIKE
PATTERN THAT OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
SUPPRESSES TO SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL HELP DRIVE THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
STATE. THIS WILL PLACE THE MIDWEST IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW
NEXT WEEK. THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO
FAR SOUTH DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW AND WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY. A STRONGER BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. EVEN COOLER AIR IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE JUST BEYOND THE
EXTENDED AND LIKELY SIGNALS THE END TO THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR
THE YEAR BEYOND THIS WEEKEND. WITH SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN AND STRONG
SYSTEMS...CAN NOT DISCOUNT A FEW SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES MOVING INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WITH ISO
POP SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS
EXISTS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z BUT CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TERMINALS
IS LOW. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL AT KMCW AND KALO BETWEEN 10-12Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT-BKN080-110 ACROSS THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
POSSIBLY EXPANDING NORTH AFT 12Z FOR THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
WINDS RETURN BY 23Z. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 030839
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
339 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

PRECIPITATION CHANCES TODAY WILL BE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN. HAVE SEEN
DEVELOPMENT OF ONGOING LIGHT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS SW
PORTIONS OF STATE...GENERALLY ALONG THE NOSE OF LLJ...AND EXPECT
THIS PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...DISSIPATING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z AS FORCING DIMINISHES. HAVE
TRENDED TOWARDS HIGH RES SOLUTIONS...THOUGH MAY BE TOO AGGRESSIVE
WITH EXTENT OF NORTHERN EDGE OF PRECIPITATION AND PERSISTENCE.
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SHIFT TO THE NORTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE DECENT
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA...THOUGH SOUNDINGS SHOWING A WEAK CAP
WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES OUT OF CWA.
HAVE THEREFORE KEPT FORECAST DRY...WITH BEST FORCING FURTHER EAST OF
THE AREA. HOWEVER...DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE AND MAY SEE
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON IN THIS AREA.

HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...TOWARDS THE HIGHER GUIDANCE.
WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT
SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES WARM TODAY. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
WITH HEAT INDEX VALUES GENERALLY 95-100 DEGREES IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

A FEW MORE DAYS OF SUMMER WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE
STATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S ARE EXPECTED TO
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY HOWEVER CHANGE IS ON THE WAY. SEVERAL FEATURES
TO MONITOR THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE FIRST WILL BE THE INCREASING
MONSOONAL FLOW AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS FLOW ENHANCE THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO
THE REGION AND ALSO WILL INGEST TROPICAL VORTICITY FRAGMENTS FROM
THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.

THIS WILL BE THE BEGINNING OF AN EVOLUTION TO A MORE FALL LIKE
PATTERN THAT OCCUR THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE UPPER RIDGE IS
SUPPRESSES TO SOUTH AND EAST WHILE THE PACIFIC UPPER LOW LIFTS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA AND WILL HELP DRIVE THE BOUNDARY INTO THE
STATE. THIS WILL PLACE THE MIDWEST IN A MORE PROGRESSIVE ZONAL FLOW
NEXT WEEK. THE BOUNDARY SUNDAY NIGHT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO DROP TOO
FAR SOUTH DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW AND WILL LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TUESDAY. A STRONGER BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. EVEN COOLER AIR IS LIKELY TO ARRIVE JUST BEYOND THE
EXTENDED AND LIKELY SIGNALS THE END TO THE HOT AND HUMID WEATHER FOR
THE YEAR BEYOND THIS WEEKEND. WITH SUCH AN ACTIVE PATTERN AND STRONG
SYSTEMS...CAN NOT DISCOUNT A FEW SEVERE STORMS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES MOVING INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WITH ISO
POP SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS
EXISTS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z BUT CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TERMINALS
IS LOW. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL AT KMCW AND KALO BETWEEN 10-12Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT-BKN080-110 ACROSS THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
POSSIBLY EXPANDING NORTH AFT 12Z FOR THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
WINDS RETURN BY 23Z. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 030405
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1105 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z TONIGHT
AND EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.  WITH THE
WINDS LOOKING TO STRONG ENOUGH (5-10 KNOTS)...THEY WILL HOLD OFF ANY
FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER
NAM FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CENTRAL IOWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH LATE SATURDAY THAT WILL KEEP VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND KICKING OFF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST BUT SO FAR
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE PRECIP TRENDS.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW TO DROP A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THE MODELS DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TO THE WEST OF IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY BRUSH THE
NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST. THE MODELS PUSH
THE FRONT INTO NW IA AROUND 18ZBUT THE EURO CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST WITH ITS PROGRESSIONS THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL HOLD THE FRONT BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
THROUGH 00Z AND BRING IT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THUS THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND
PRECIP CHANCES. AT THIS POINT THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY STAY
NORTH BUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER IA FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LATE DAY THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
DEEPER SHEAR HANGS BACK AND REALLY DOESN`T COME INTO IA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER
THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS TO SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS INCREASING TO 1.75 TO 1.9 INCHES SO STRONGER
STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL
DROP FROM THE 85-95 RANGE TO MORE 75-85 RANGE AND BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGHS ARE BACK IN THE MID 70S.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE FRONT STALLS
OUT SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA WHICH WILL KEEP
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES MOVING INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WITH ISO
POP SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS
EXISTS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z BUT CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TERMINALS
IS LOW. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL AT KMCW AND KALO BETWEEN 10-12Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT-BKN080-110 ACROSS THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
POSSIBLY EXPANDING NORTH AFT 12Z FOR THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
WINDS RETURN BY 23Z. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 030405
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1105 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z TONIGHT
AND EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.  WITH THE
WINDS LOOKING TO STRONG ENOUGH (5-10 KNOTS)...THEY WILL HOLD OFF ANY
FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER
NAM FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CENTRAL IOWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH LATE SATURDAY THAT WILL KEEP VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND KICKING OFF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST BUT SO FAR
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE PRECIP TRENDS.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW TO DROP A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THE MODELS DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TO THE WEST OF IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY BRUSH THE
NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST. THE MODELS PUSH
THE FRONT INTO NW IA AROUND 18ZBUT THE EURO CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST WITH ITS PROGRESSIONS THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL HOLD THE FRONT BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
THROUGH 00Z AND BRING IT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THUS THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND
PRECIP CHANCES. AT THIS POINT THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY STAY
NORTH BUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER IA FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LATE DAY THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
DEEPER SHEAR HANGS BACK AND REALLY DOESN`T COME INTO IA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER
THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS TO SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS INCREASING TO 1.75 TO 1.9 INCHES SO STRONGER
STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL
DROP FROM THE 85-95 RANGE TO MORE 75-85 RANGE AND BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGHS ARE BACK IN THE MID 70S.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE FRONT STALLS
OUT SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA WHICH WILL KEEP
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1104 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WARM AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES MOVING INTO SOUTHERN AREAS WITH ISO
POP SHOWERS FROM TIME TO TIME. POTENTIAL FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS
EXISTS BETWEEN 06 AND 12Z BUT CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN TERMINALS
IS LOW. LIGHT FOG POTENTIAL AT KMCW AND KALO BETWEEN 10-12Z.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT SCT-BKN080-110 ACROSS THE SOUTH OVERNIGHT
POSSIBLY EXPANDING NORTH AFT 12Z FOR THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. LIGHT
WINDS RETURN BY 23Z. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 022327
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
627 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z TONIGHT
AND EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.  WITH THE
WINDS LOOKING TO STRONG ENOUGH (5-10 KNOTS)...THEY WILL HOLD OFF ANY
FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER
NAM FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CENTRAL IOWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH LATE SATURDAY THAT WILL KEEP VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND KICKING OFF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST BUT SO FAR
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE PRECIP TRENDS.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW TO DROP A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THE MODELS DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TO THE WEST OF IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY BRUSH THE
NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST. THE MODELS PUSH
THE FRONT INTO NW IA AROUND 18ZBUT THE EURO CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST WITH ITS PROGRESSIONS THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL HOLD THE FRONT BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
THROUGH 00Z AND BRING IT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THUS THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND
PRECIP CHANCES. AT THIS POINT THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY STAY
NORTH BUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER IA FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LATE DAY THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
DEEPER SHEAR HANGS BACK AND REALLY DOESN`T COME INTO IA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER
THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS TO SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS INCREASING TO 1.75 TO 1.9 INCHES SO STRONGER
STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL
DROP FROM THE 85-95 RANGE TO MORE 75-85 RANGE AND BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGHS ARE BACK IN THE MID 70S.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE FRONT STALLS
OUT SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA WHICH WILL KEEP
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINOR CONCERNS THIS PERIOD. WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN
IA HAS PRODUCED A FEW ISO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH
PRIOR TO 04Z AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT
EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME 5SM BR NORTH. BY
15Z THUR WINDS WILL AGAIN MIX BUT BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO SFC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCT LOW
AND HIGH LEVEL DECKS DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH SFC MOISTURE AND
APPROACHING SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 022327
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
627 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z TONIGHT
AND EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.  WITH THE
WINDS LOOKING TO STRONG ENOUGH (5-10 KNOTS)...THEY WILL HOLD OFF ANY
FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER
NAM FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CENTRAL IOWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH LATE SATURDAY THAT WILL KEEP VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND KICKING OFF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST BUT SO FAR
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE PRECIP TRENDS.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW TO DROP A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THE MODELS DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TO THE WEST OF IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY BRUSH THE
NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST. THE MODELS PUSH
THE FRONT INTO NW IA AROUND 18ZBUT THE EURO CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST WITH ITS PROGRESSIONS THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL HOLD THE FRONT BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
THROUGH 00Z AND BRING IT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THUS THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND
PRECIP CHANCES. AT THIS POINT THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY STAY
NORTH BUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER IA FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LATE DAY THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
DEEPER SHEAR HANGS BACK AND REALLY DOESN`T COME INTO IA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER
THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS TO SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS INCREASING TO 1.75 TO 1.9 INCHES SO STRONGER
STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL
DROP FROM THE 85-95 RANGE TO MORE 75-85 RANGE AND BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGHS ARE BACK IN THE MID 70S.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE FRONT STALLS
OUT SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA WHICH WILL KEEP
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINOR CONCERNS THIS PERIOD. WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN
IA HAS PRODUCED A FEW ISO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH
PRIOR TO 04Z AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT
EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME 5SM BR NORTH. BY
15Z THUR WINDS WILL AGAIN MIX BUT BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO SFC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCT LOW
AND HIGH LEVEL DECKS DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH SFC MOISTURE AND
APPROACHING SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 022327
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
627 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z TONIGHT
AND EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.  WITH THE
WINDS LOOKING TO STRONG ENOUGH (5-10 KNOTS)...THEY WILL HOLD OFF ANY
FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER
NAM FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CENTRAL IOWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH LATE SATURDAY THAT WILL KEEP VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND KICKING OFF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST BUT SO FAR
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE PRECIP TRENDS.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW TO DROP A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THE MODELS DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TO THE WEST OF IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY BRUSH THE
NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST. THE MODELS PUSH
THE FRONT INTO NW IA AROUND 18ZBUT THE EURO CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST WITH ITS PROGRESSIONS THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL HOLD THE FRONT BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
THROUGH 00Z AND BRING IT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THUS THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND
PRECIP CHANCES. AT THIS POINT THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY STAY
NORTH BUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER IA FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LATE DAY THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
DEEPER SHEAR HANGS BACK AND REALLY DOESN`T COME INTO IA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER
THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS TO SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS INCREASING TO 1.75 TO 1.9 INCHES SO STRONGER
STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL
DROP FROM THE 85-95 RANGE TO MORE 75-85 RANGE AND BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGHS ARE BACK IN THE MID 70S.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE FRONT STALLS
OUT SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA WHICH WILL KEEP
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINOR CONCERNS THIS PERIOD. WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN
IA HAS PRODUCED A FEW ISO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH
PRIOR TO 04Z AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT
EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME 5SM BR NORTH. BY
15Z THUR WINDS WILL AGAIN MIX BUT BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO SFC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCT LOW
AND HIGH LEVEL DECKS DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH SFC MOISTURE AND
APPROACHING SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 022327
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
627 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z TONIGHT
AND EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.  WITH THE
WINDS LOOKING TO STRONG ENOUGH (5-10 KNOTS)...THEY WILL HOLD OFF ANY
FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER
NAM FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CENTRAL IOWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH LATE SATURDAY THAT WILL KEEP VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND KICKING OFF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST BUT SO FAR
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE PRECIP TRENDS.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW TO DROP A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THE MODELS DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TO THE WEST OF IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY BRUSH THE
NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST. THE MODELS PUSH
THE FRONT INTO NW IA AROUND 18ZBUT THE EURO CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST WITH ITS PROGRESSIONS THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL HOLD THE FRONT BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
THROUGH 00Z AND BRING IT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THUS THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND
PRECIP CHANCES. AT THIS POINT THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY STAY
NORTH BUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER IA FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LATE DAY THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
DEEPER SHEAR HANGS BACK AND REALLY DOESN`T COME INTO IA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER
THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS TO SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS INCREASING TO 1.75 TO 1.9 INCHES SO STRONGER
STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL
DROP FROM THE 85-95 RANGE TO MORE 75-85 RANGE AND BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGHS ARE BACK IN THE MID 70S.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE FRONT STALLS
OUT SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA WHICH WILL KEEP
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...03/00Z
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

MINOR CONCERNS THIS PERIOD. WEAK SHORT WAVE TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN
IA HAS PRODUCED A FEW ISO SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL DIMINISH
PRIOR TO 04Z AND SHOULD NOT AFFECT TAF SITES. OTHERWISE OVERNIGHT
EXPECT WINDS TO DECOUPLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME 5SM BR NORTH. BY
15Z THUR WINDS WILL AGAIN MIX BUT BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO SFC. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH SCT LOW
AND HIGH LEVEL DECKS DUE TO CONTINUED HIGH SFC MOISTURE AND
APPROACHING SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 022050
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
350 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z TONIGHT
AND EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.  WITH THE
WINDS LOOKING TO STRONG ENOUGH (5-10 KNOTS)...THEY WILL HOLD OFF ANY
FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER
NAM FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CENTRAL IOWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH LATE SATURDAY THAT WILL KEEP VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND KICKING OFF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST BUT SO FAR
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE PRECIP TRENDS.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW TO DROP A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THE MODELS DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TO THE WEST OF IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY BRUSH THE
NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST. THE MODELS PUSH
THE FRONT INTO NW IA AROUND 18ZBUT THE EURO CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST WITH ITS PROGRESSIONS THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL HOLD THE FRONT BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
THROUGH 00Z AND BRING IT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THUS THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND
PRECIP CHANCES. AT THIS POINT THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY STAY
NORTH BUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER IA FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LATE DAY THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
DEEPER SHEAR HANGS BACK AND REALLY DOESN`T COME INTO IA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER
THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS TO SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS INCREASING TO 1.75 TO 1.9 INCHES SO STRONGER
STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL
DROP FROM THE 85-95 RANGE TO MORE 75-85 RANGE AND BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGHS ARE BACK IN THE MID 70S.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE FRONT STALLS
OUT SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA WHICH WILL KEEP
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH MAIN
CONCERN WITH WINDS GUSTING THIS AFTERNOON TO 25 KNOTS. GUSTY WINDS
ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH MIXING INCREASING BY 15Z
THURSDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 022050
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
350 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECOUPLE BETWEEN 23Z AND 00Z TONIGHT
AND EXPECTING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING.  WITH THE
WINDS LOOKING TO STRONG ENOUGH (5-10 KNOTS)...THEY WILL HOLD OFF ANY
FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AND KEEP TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO THE WARMER
NAM FOR LOWS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO LARGE SCALE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. CENTRAL IOWA WILL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH LATE SATURDAY THAT WILL KEEP VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. HIGHS WILL BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THROUGH SATURDAY. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT
AND KICKING OFF SHOWERS/STORMS ACROSS THE FAR WEST BUT SO FAR
NONE OF THE OTHER MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON THE PRECIP TRENDS.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH DIGGING OFF THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND PUSHING THE RIDGE AXIS EAST LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ALLOWING A SURFACE LOW TO DROP A PRETTY STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THE MODELS DEVELOP STORMS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
TO THE WEST OF IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY BRUSH THE
NORTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHWEST. THE MODELS PUSH
THE FRONT INTO NW IA AROUND 18ZBUT THE EURO CONTINUES TO BE THE
FASTEST WITH ITS PROGRESSIONS THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MODELS ALL HOLD THE FRONT BACK ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA
THROUGH 00Z AND BRING IT SLOWLY ACROSS THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING. THUS THERE ARE TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONT AND
PRECIP CHANCES. AT THIS POINT THE BULK OF THE INSTABILITY STAY
NORTH BUT THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER IA FOR
STORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY LATE DAY THROUGH LATE EVENING. THE
DEEPER SHEAR HANGS BACK AND REALLY DOESN`T COME INTO IA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY BUT GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRESENT. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER
THAT WILL BE ENOUGH TO SUSTAIN UPDRAFTS TO SEE ANY SEVERE WEATHER.
SOUNDINGS SHOW PWATS INCREASING TO 1.75 TO 1.9 INCHES SO STRONGER
STORMS WILL HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN. TEMPS BY SUNDAY WILL
DROP FROM THE 85-95 RANGE TO MORE 75-85 RANGE AND BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK HIGHS ARE BACK IN THE MID 70S.

THE REST OF THE LONG TERM REMAINS UNSETTLED AS THE FRONT STALLS
OUT SOMEWHERE IN NORTHERN MISSOURI/SOUTHERN IOWA WHICH WILL KEEP
AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIP ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH MAIN
CONCERN WITH WINDS GUSTING THIS AFTERNOON TO 25 KNOTS. GUSTY WINDS
ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH MIXING INCREASING BY 15Z
THURSDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 021720
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1220 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND HAS GENERATED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING
AND MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO REAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED
AS THE STORMS ARE NON SEVERE AND PROGRESSIVE...LIMITING ANY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH/LINE OF STORMS SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CLEAR SKIES SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES CONDUCIVE TO PRETTY GOOD VERTICAL
MIXING TODAY SO WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
IOWA AT THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY PROVIDING A LOWER CEILING FOR HOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN RISE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED BALANCING OF THESE
FACTORS STUCK WITH HIGHS TODAY VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LOW
SETTLING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL HELP FORCE A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE NATIONS MID SECTION. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS
TONIGHT...THE MOISTURE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE
PIVOT REGION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO LAKE MICHIGAN AN THIS WILL
KEEP LOW POP CHANCES GOING IN THE MASON CITY TO WAVERLY AREAS INTO
THE EVENING.

THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE THOUGH INCREASED MIXING AND A SLIGHT BOOST IN 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL HELP READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHT WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW 90S.
THE GFS SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO DRY BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AND HAS BEEN LEADING TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES. IRONICALLY THE GFS
RAW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY GOOD FOR THE WRONG REASONS
DUE TO MIXING DRY AIR WITH OTHER GUIDANCE BEING TOO LOW. SATURDAY
WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH THESE CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LAST
INTO A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE WITH A SWITCH TO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW. ANY SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME DROPPING TOO FAR SOUTH DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH
IOWA AND INTO MISSOURI. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH MAIN
CONCERN WITH WINDS GUSTING THIS AFTERNOON TO 25 KNOTS. GUSTY WINDS
ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH MIXING INCREASING BY 15Z
THURSDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 021720
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1220 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND HAS GENERATED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING
AND MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO REAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED
AS THE STORMS ARE NON SEVERE AND PROGRESSIVE...LIMITING ANY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH/LINE OF STORMS SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CLEAR SKIES SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES CONDUCIVE TO PRETTY GOOD VERTICAL
MIXING TODAY SO WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
IOWA AT THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY PROVIDING A LOWER CEILING FOR HOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN RISE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED BALANCING OF THESE
FACTORS STUCK WITH HIGHS TODAY VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LOW
SETTLING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL HELP FORCE A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE NATIONS MID SECTION. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS
TONIGHT...THE MOISTURE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE
PIVOT REGION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO LAKE MICHIGAN AN THIS WILL
KEEP LOW POP CHANCES GOING IN THE MASON CITY TO WAVERLY AREAS INTO
THE EVENING.

THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE THOUGH INCREASED MIXING AND A SLIGHT BOOST IN 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL HELP READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHT WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW 90S.
THE GFS SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO DRY BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AND HAS BEEN LEADING TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES. IRONICALLY THE GFS
RAW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY GOOD FOR THE WRONG REASONS
DUE TO MIXING DRY AIR WITH OTHER GUIDANCE BEING TOO LOW. SATURDAY
WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH THESE CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LAST
INTO A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE WITH A SWITCH TO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW. ANY SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME DROPPING TOO FAR SOUTH DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH
IOWA AND INTO MISSOURI. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...02/18Z
ISSUED AT 1218 PM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH MAIN
CONCERN WITH WINDS GUSTING THIS AFTERNOON TO 25 KNOTS. GUSTY WINDS
ANTICIPATED LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH MIXING INCREASING BY 15Z
THURSDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 021127
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
627 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND HAS GENERATED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING
AND MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO REAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED
AS THE STORMS ARE NON SEVERE AND PROGRESSIVE...LIMITING ANY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH/LINE OF STORMS SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CLEAR SKIES SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES CONDUCIVE TO PRETTY GOOD VERTICAL
MIXING TODAY SO WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
IOWA AT THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY PROVIDING A LOWER CEILING FOR HOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN RISE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED BALANCING OF THESE
FACTORS STUCK WITH HIGHS TODAY VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LOW
SETTLING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL HELP FORCE A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE NATIONS MID SECTION. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS
TONIGHT...THE MOISTURE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE
PIVOT REGION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO LAKE MICHIGAN AN THIS WILL
KEEP LOW POP CHANCES GOING IN THE MASON CITY TO WAVERLY AREAS INTO
THE EVENING.

THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE THOUGH INCREASED MIXING AND A SLIGHT BOOST IN 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL HELP READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHT WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW 90S.
THE GFS SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO DRY BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AND HAS BEEN LEADING TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES. IRONICALLY THE GFS
RAW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY GOOD FOR THE WRONG REASONS
DUE TO MIXING DRY AIR WITH OTHER GUIDANCE BEING TOO LOW. SATURDAY
WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH THESE CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LAST
INTO A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE WITH A SWITCH TO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW. ANY SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME DROPPING TOO FAR SOUTH DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH
IOWA AND INTO MISSOURI. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING DSM/ALO/OTM IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT WITH ANY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BEING FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW-SCT HIGHER CLOUDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 021127
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
627 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND HAS GENERATED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING
AND MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO REAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED
AS THE STORMS ARE NON SEVERE AND PROGRESSIVE...LIMITING ANY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH/LINE OF STORMS SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CLEAR SKIES SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES CONDUCIVE TO PRETTY GOOD VERTICAL
MIXING TODAY SO WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
IOWA AT THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY PROVIDING A LOWER CEILING FOR HOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN RISE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED BALANCING OF THESE
FACTORS STUCK WITH HIGHS TODAY VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LOW
SETTLING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL HELP FORCE A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE NATIONS MID SECTION. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS
TONIGHT...THE MOISTURE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE
PIVOT REGION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO LAKE MICHIGAN AN THIS WILL
KEEP LOW POP CHANCES GOING IN THE MASON CITY TO WAVERLY AREAS INTO
THE EVENING.

THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE THOUGH INCREASED MIXING AND A SLIGHT BOOST IN 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL HELP READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHT WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW 90S.
THE GFS SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO DRY BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AND HAS BEEN LEADING TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES. IRONICALLY THE GFS
RAW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY GOOD FOR THE WRONG REASONS
DUE TO MIXING DRY AIR WITH OTHER GUIDANCE BEING TOO LOW. SATURDAY
WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH THESE CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LAST
INTO A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE WITH A SWITCH TO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW. ANY SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME DROPPING TOO FAR SOUTH DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH
IOWA AND INTO MISSOURI. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING DSM/ALO/OTM IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT WITH ANY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BEING FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW-SCT HIGHER CLOUDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 021127
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
627 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND HAS GENERATED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING
AND MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO REAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED
AS THE STORMS ARE NON SEVERE AND PROGRESSIVE...LIMITING ANY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH/LINE OF STORMS SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CLEAR SKIES SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES CONDUCIVE TO PRETTY GOOD VERTICAL
MIXING TODAY SO WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
IOWA AT THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY PROVIDING A LOWER CEILING FOR HOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN RISE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED BALANCING OF THESE
FACTORS STUCK WITH HIGHS TODAY VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LOW
SETTLING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL HELP FORCE A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE NATIONS MID SECTION. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS
TONIGHT...THE MOISTURE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE
PIVOT REGION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO LAKE MICHIGAN AN THIS WILL
KEEP LOW POP CHANCES GOING IN THE MASON CITY TO WAVERLY AREAS INTO
THE EVENING.

THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE THOUGH INCREASED MIXING AND A SLIGHT BOOST IN 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL HELP READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHT WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW 90S.
THE GFS SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO DRY BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AND HAS BEEN LEADING TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES. IRONICALLY THE GFS
RAW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY GOOD FOR THE WRONG REASONS
DUE TO MIXING DRY AIR WITH OTHER GUIDANCE BEING TOO LOW. SATURDAY
WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH THESE CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LAST
INTO A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE WITH A SWITCH TO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW. ANY SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME DROPPING TOO FAR SOUTH DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH
IOWA AND INTO MISSOURI. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING DSM/ALO/OTM IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT WITH ANY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BEING FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW-SCT HIGHER CLOUDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 021127
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
627 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND HAS GENERATED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING
AND MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO REAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED
AS THE STORMS ARE NON SEVERE AND PROGRESSIVE...LIMITING ANY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH/LINE OF STORMS SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CLEAR SKIES SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES CONDUCIVE TO PRETTY GOOD VERTICAL
MIXING TODAY SO WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
IOWA AT THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY PROVIDING A LOWER CEILING FOR HOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN RISE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED BALANCING OF THESE
FACTORS STUCK WITH HIGHS TODAY VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LOW
SETTLING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL HELP FORCE A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE NATIONS MID SECTION. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS
TONIGHT...THE MOISTURE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE
PIVOT REGION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO LAKE MICHIGAN AN THIS WILL
KEEP LOW POP CHANCES GOING IN THE MASON CITY TO WAVERLY AREAS INTO
THE EVENING.

THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE THOUGH INCREASED MIXING AND A SLIGHT BOOST IN 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL HELP READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHT WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW 90S.
THE GFS SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO DRY BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AND HAS BEEN LEADING TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES. IRONICALLY THE GFS
RAW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY GOOD FOR THE WRONG REASONS
DUE TO MIXING DRY AIR WITH OTHER GUIDANCE BEING TOO LOW. SATURDAY
WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH THESE CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LAST
INTO A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE WITH A SWITCH TO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW. ANY SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME DROPPING TOO FAR SOUTH DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH
IOWA AND INTO MISSOURI. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...02/12Z
ISSUED AT 627 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR THE AREA FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS MORNING...POSSIBLY AFFECTING DSM/ALO/OTM IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS BUT WITH ANY MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS BEING FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN. THEREAFTER...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY FEW-SCT HIGHER CLOUDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 020834
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
334 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SLOWLY CROSSING THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING...AND HAS GENERATED A BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXTENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS IOWA. THIS BAND WILL CONTINUE
TO TRACK SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING
AND MOVING OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA. NO REAL IMPACTS ARE ANTICIPATED
AS THE STORMS ARE NON SEVERE AND PROGRESSIVE...LIMITING ANY HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL. BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH/LINE OF STORMS SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS CLEAR SKIES SPREADING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA AND
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW PROFILES CONDUCIVE TO PRETTY GOOD VERTICAL
MIXING TODAY SO WE SHOULD WARM UP NICELY ONCE AGAIN...PARTICULARLY
GIVEN THAT TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS MUCH OF
IOWA AT THIS HOUR. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES AT THE TOP OF OF THE MIXED
LAYER WILL BE A BIT COOLER TODAY PROVIDING A LOWER CEILING FOR HOW
HIGH TEMPERATURES CAN RISE. GIVEN THE EXPECTED BALANCING OF THESE
FACTORS STUCK WITH HIGHS TODAY VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WAS SEEN
YESTERDAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

THE UPPER PV ANOMALY MOVING ACROSS IOWA EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST AND IN CONJUNCTION WITH AN UPPER LOW
SETTLING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...WILL HELP FORCE A RIDGE TO
DEVELOP THROUGH THE NATIONS MID SECTION. AS THIS PROCESS OCCURS
TONIGHT...THE MOISTURE AND THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LINGER IN THE
PIVOT REGION OVER NORTHEAST IOWA TO LAKE MICHIGAN AN THIS WILL
KEEP LOW POP CHANCES GOING IN THE MASON CITY TO WAVERLY AREAS INTO
THE EVENING.

THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH UNDER THE
BUILDING RIDGE THOUGH INCREASED MIXING AND A SLIGHT BOOST IN 850
MB TEMPERATURES WILL HELP READINGS TO BE NEAR TO SLIGHT WARMER
THAN THE PAST FEW DAYS AND SOME LOCATIONS REACHING THE LOW 90S.
THE GFS SOUNDING PROFILES CONTINUE TO BE MUCH TOO DRY BY THE
AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AND HAS BEEN LEADING TO HIGHER TEMPERATURES. IRONICALLY THE GFS
RAW TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY GOOD FOR THE WRONG REASONS
DUE TO MIXING DRY AIR WITH OTHER GUIDANCE BEING TOO LOW. SATURDAY
WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID WITH THESE CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LAST
INTO A GOOD PORTION OF SUNDAY. THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LOW
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AND WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL HELP FLATTEN THE RIDGE WITH A SWITCH TO A
MORE ZONAL FLOW. ANY SFC BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL
HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME DROPPING TOO FAR SOUTH DUE TO THE ZONAL FLOW
BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THE BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE IT THROUGH
IOWA AND INTO MISSOURI. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AND LESS HUMID
CONDITIONS TO THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...02/06Z
ISSUED AT 1043 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

BEST FORCING REMAINS NORTH ACROSS MN...BUT ANOTHER AREA OF WEAKER
WARM AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPING SOME SHOWERS ACROSS SW IOWA. HAVE
UPDATED TIMING OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS AREA THROUGH 18Z WED...
AFT 18Z MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE EAST OF AREA. VFR CIGS
EXPECTED WITH SOME MVFR BR OVERNIGHT NORTH. OTHERWISE...WINDS MIX
AFT 16Z MOST AREAS WITH GUST POTENTIAL TO 23KT DIMINISHING BY 00Z
WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED THROUGH END OF
PERIOD. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...REV




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