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000
FXUS63 KDMX 290812
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TEMPS AND HOW TO DEAL WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS TODAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH NE HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MO VALLEY JET SEGMENT AND ALSO
AIDED BY WEAK THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUT SOUTH AND WEST HOWEVER AND WEAKEN LATER
TODAY. OUR POTENTIAL WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DRIVEN BY
SHALLOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OR
CONVERGENCE. AREAL COVERAGE WAS VERY MINIMAL MONDAY HOWEVER...WELL
UNDER 10 PERCENT...SO DO NOT FEEL WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES
ADEQUATELY CONVEY WHAT WILL MATERIALIZE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT MENTION AND
FORECAST DRY OUTSIDE OF FAR NE CORNER CLOSER TO BETTER MLCAPES.
0-1KM TEMPS NUDGE UP JUST SLIGHTLY VS YESTERDAY SO HAVE ADDED A
FEW DEGREES TO PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY OVERALL DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE GYRE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON BAY HAS CARVED OUT A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH ACROSS ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF OF THE U.S. AND IOWA
LIES BENEATH THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A
SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASSES. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SMALL SHOWERS
AT TIMES BUT NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM DAY TO DAY WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AND
REPLACED BY A MORE DISORGANIZED FLOW OVER IOWA...PERHAPS IN A
ROUGHLY ZONAL CONFIGURATION...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER AND SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...EVEN THEN NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS APPEAR IN THE
FORECAST AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN PRETTY BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL
THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SIMILAR FORECAST SCENARIO FOR TAFS THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE TOO ISOLD AND LIGHT TO
MENTION IN TAFS OR GRIDDED FORECASTS. ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
ONCE AGAIN WE WILL DEVELOP A BKN VFR DECK OF CLOUDS AND WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER
WAVE PASSES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 290812
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

TEMPS AND HOW TO DEAL WITH PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL BE THE MAIN
CONCERNS TODAY. ELEVATED CONVECTION THROUGH NE HAS DEVELOPED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE MO VALLEY JET SEGMENT AND ALSO
AIDED BY WEAK THERMODYNAMIC FORCING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE.
THIS SHOULD REMAIN TO OUT SOUTH AND WEST HOWEVER AND WEAKEN LATER
TODAY. OUR POTENTIAL WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY...DRIVEN BY
SHALLOW WEAK INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE LOW LEVEL FOCUS OR
CONVERGENCE. AREAL COVERAGE WAS VERY MINIMAL MONDAY HOWEVER...WELL
UNDER 10 PERCENT...SO DO NOT FEEL WIDESPREAD SLIGHT CHANCES
ADEQUATELY CONVEY WHAT WILL MATERIALIZE. EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION...BUT WILL LEAVE SILENT MENTION AND
FORECAST DRY OUTSIDE OF FAR NE CORNER CLOSER TO BETTER MLCAPES.
0-1KM TEMPS NUDGE UP JUST SLIGHTLY VS YESTERDAY SO HAVE ADDED A
FEW DEGREES TO PERSISTENCE FOR HIGHS TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

THE LONG TERM FORECAST IS CHARACTERIZED BY OVERALL DRY AND QUIET
WEATHER AND NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A LARGE
LOW PRESSURE GYRE SITUATED NEAR HUDSON BAY HAS CARVED OUT A DEEP
LAYER TROUGH ACROSS ABOUT THE EASTERN HALF OF OF THE U.S. AND IOWA
LIES BENEATH THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
TROUGH. THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN ESSENTIALLY STATIONARY THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THE SURFACE THIS WILL TRANSLATE TO A
SERIES OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY
COOL AND DRY AIRMASSES. THERE WILL BE LOW CHANCES OF SMALL SHOWERS
AT TIMES BUT NOTHING OF ANY CONSEQUENCE OR IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY FROM DAY TO DAY WITH
PERHAPS A VERY SLIGHT WARMING TREND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

BY SATURDAY THE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH WILL BE BREAKING DOWN AND
REPLACED BY A MORE DISORGANIZED FLOW OVER IOWA...PERHAPS IN A
ROUGHLY ZONAL CONFIGURATION...WHICH SHOULD FAVOR A LITTLE WARMER
WEATHER AND SOME CHANCE FOR RAIN TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...EVEN THEN NO SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEMS APPEAR IN THE
FORECAST AND THE WEATHER WILL REMAIN PRETTY BENIGN AND UNEVENTFUL
THROUGH THE END OF THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SIMILAR FORECAST SCENARIO FOR TAFS THIS FORECAST CYCLE. PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE TOO ISOLD AND LIGHT TO
MENTION IN TAFS OR GRIDDED FORECASTS. ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON SO
ONCE AGAIN WE WILL DEVELOP A BKN VFR DECK OF CLOUDS AND WITH SOME
LIGHT SPRINKLES POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. THE
CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER
WAVE PASSES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 290441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1140 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HEATING SUBSIDES AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE STATE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSE WITH WINDS
STAYING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...READINGS TO BE BELOW
GUIDANCE IN FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN IOWA AS WELL AS THE NISHNA
VALLEYS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY REINFORCE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM TO CUT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ATTM DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
PAST 18Z TUESDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED ON FRIDAY. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ECMWF IS ABOUT A DAY LATE. REGARDLESS...SEEMS MONDAY
TIME FRAME IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SIMILAR FORECAST SCENARIO FOR TAFS THIS FORECAST CYCLE.  PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE TOO ISOLD AND LIGHT TO
MENTION IN TAFS OR GRIDDED FORECASTS.  ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON SO ONCE AGAIN
WE WILL DEVELOP A BKN VFR DECK OF CLOUDS AND WITH SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.  THE CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER WAVE
PASSES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 290441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1140 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HEATING SUBSIDES AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE STATE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSE WITH WINDS
STAYING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...READINGS TO BE BELOW
GUIDANCE IN FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN IOWA AS WELL AS THE NISHNA
VALLEYS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY REINFORCE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM TO CUT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ATTM DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
PAST 18Z TUESDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED ON FRIDAY. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ECMWF IS ABOUT A DAY LATE. REGARDLESS...SEEMS MONDAY
TIME FRAME IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

SIMILAR FORECAST SCENARIO FOR TAFS THIS FORECAST CYCLE.  PATCHY
GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP BUT IT WILL BE TOO ISOLD AND LIGHT TO
MENTION IN TAFS OR GRIDDED FORECASTS.  ANOTHER VERY WEAK UPPER LEVEL
WAVE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON SO ONCE AGAIN
WE WILL DEVELOP A BKN VFR DECK OF CLOUDS AND WITH SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.  THE CLOUDS
WILL DISSIPATE ONCE WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING AND THE UPPER WAVE
PASSES. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE VERY LIGHT UNDER 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 282340
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
642 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HEATING SUBSIDES AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE STATE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSE WITH WINDS
STAYING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...READINGS TO BE BELOW
GUIDANCE IN FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN IOWA AS WELL AS THE NISHNA
VALLEYS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY REINFORCE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM TO CUT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ATTM DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
PAST 18Z TUESDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED ON FRIDAY. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ECMWF IS ABOUT A DAY LATE. REGARDLESS...SEEMS MONDAY
TIME FRAME IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CIGS WILL BECOME SCATTERED BY 02Z AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  SOME CU WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LESS IN COVERAGE THAN WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 282340
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
642 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HEATING SUBSIDES AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE STATE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSE WITH WINDS
STAYING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...READINGS TO BE BELOW
GUIDANCE IN FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN IOWA AS WELL AS THE NISHNA
VALLEYS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY REINFORCE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM TO CUT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ATTM DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
PAST 18Z TUESDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED ON FRIDAY. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ECMWF IS ABOUT A DAY LATE. REGARDLESS...SEEMS MONDAY
TIME FRAME IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

VFR CIGS WILL BECOME SCATTERED BY 02Z AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  SOME CU WILL DEVELOP IN THE LATE
MORNING/AFTERNOON BUT SHOULD BE GENERALLY LESS IN COVERAGE THAN WHAT
WE HAVE SEEN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 282040
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HEATING SUBSIDES AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE STATE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSE WITH WINDS
STAYING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...READINGS TO BE BELOW
GUIDANCE IN FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN IOWA AS WELL AS THE NISHNA
VALLEYS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY REINFORCE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM TO CUT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ATTM DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
PAST 18Z TUESDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED ON FRIDAY. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ECMWF IS ABOUT A DAY LATE. REGARDLESS...SEEMS MONDAY
TIME FRAME IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

GENERALLY WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. ANY CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAY RELATIVELY WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 282040
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAIN ISSUES WILL BE EARLY IN THE FORECAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS
PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK
SOUTHWARD AND DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS HEATING SUBSIDES AND WEAK
SHORTWAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST. EXTENSIVE CU FIELD WILL ALSO
DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND DRIER AIR MOVING INTO
THE STATE. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER
VALLEY...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN RATHER LOOSE WITH WINDS
STAYING LIGHT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES TO HOLD WELL BELOW NORMAL
AND WITH CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...READINGS TO BE BELOW
GUIDANCE IN FAVORED AREAS OF NORTHERN IOWA AS WELL AS THE NISHNA
VALLEYS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST
CONCERN DURING THE EXTENDED PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. A FEW RIPPLES IN THE
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEK WILL MAINLY REINFORCE THE COOL
TEMPERATURES. THE GFS SHOWS A BIT STRONGER SHORTWAVE THAN THE
ECMWF/NAM TO CUT ACROSS EASTERN IOWA ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MAY SEE
A FEW SPOTTY SPRINKLES IN THE NORTHEAST...BUT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ATTM DUE TO THE LACK OF MOISTURE
AVAILABLE. LEFT FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BUT DID INCREASE CLOUD COVER
PAST 18Z TUESDAY.

NEXT SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM COMES THROUGH ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
MODELS HAVE BEEN GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
ACROSS THE STATE DURING THE AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME AND KEPT
ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED ON FRIDAY. GFS WANTS TO BRING IN FAIRLY
STRONG COLD FRONT AND TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY...BUT ECMWF IS ABOUT A DAY LATE. REGARDLESS...SEEMS MONDAY
TIME FRAME IS THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING
PRECIP.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

GENERALLY WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. ANY CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAY RELATIVELY WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 281727
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

IT WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVANCING
FROM MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO NORTHERN
IOWA...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS AND ISOLATES SPRINKLES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN EXPAND INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A VERY SHALLOW CLOUD
LAYER AND WITH AMPLE MIXING THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATER THIS
EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT MOST RAIN WILL
ONLY PRODUCE TRACES AND ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY
SPOTTY. WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MOVING IN...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
BELOW YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
TIME...BUT WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE KEEPING IA RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
TODAY WILL LIKELY FADE DIURNALLY SO FORECAST IS DRY UNTIL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRI AND SAT. ANYTHING THAT
DOES OCCUR WOULD STILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED WEAK PEAK HEATING
CONVECTION WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SO NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END CHANCES.

WITH IA IN WEAK NW FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH...
SURFACE FEATURES AND TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE.  PERSISTENT WEAK MO
VALLEY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A STAGNANT MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH HIGHS AND LOWS OFTEN WITHIN A FIVE DEGREE
WINDOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

GENERALLY WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. ANY CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAY RELATIVELY WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 281727
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1227 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

IT WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVANCING
FROM MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO NORTHERN
IOWA...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS AND ISOLATES SPRINKLES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN EXPAND INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A VERY SHALLOW CLOUD
LAYER AND WITH AMPLE MIXING THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATER THIS
EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT MOST RAIN WILL
ONLY PRODUCE TRACES AND ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY
SPOTTY. WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MOVING IN...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
BELOW YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
TIME...BUT WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE KEEPING IA RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
TODAY WILL LIKELY FADE DIURNALLY SO FORECAST IS DRY UNTIL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRI AND SAT. ANYTHING THAT
DOES OCCUR WOULD STILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED WEAK PEAK HEATING
CONVECTION WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SO NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END CHANCES.

WITH IA IN WEAK NW FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH...
SURFACE FEATURES AND TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE.  PERSISTENT WEAK MO
VALLEY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A STAGNANT MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH HIGHS AND LOWS OFTEN WITHIN A FIVE DEGREE
WINDOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

GENERALLY WIDESPREAD VFR EXPECTED FOR THE DURATION OF THE
FORECAST. ANY CEILINGS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT FROM THE NORTH AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT STAY RELATIVELY WEAK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 281136
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
636 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

IT WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVANCING
FROM MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO NORTHERN
IOWA...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS AND ISOLATES SPRINKLES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN EXPAND INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A VERY SHALLOW CLOUD
LAYER AND WITH AMPLE MIXING THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATER THIS
EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT MOST RAIN WILL
ONLY PRODUCE TRACES AND ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY
SPOTTY. WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MOVING IN...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
BELOW YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
TIME...BUT WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE KEEPING IA RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
TODAY WILL LIKELY FADE DIURNALLY SO FORECAST IS DRY UNTIL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRI AND SAT. ANYTHING THAT
DOES OCCUR WOULD STILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED WEAK PEAK HEATING
CONVECTION WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SO NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END CHANCES.

WITH IA IN WEAK NW FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH...
SURFACE FEATURES AND TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE.  PERSISTENT WEAK MO
VALLEY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A STAGNANT MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH HIGHS AND LOWS OFTEN WITHIN A FIVE DEGREE
WINDOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHEN MVFR OR IFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT FOD...AS A STRATOCUMULUS DECK
ADVANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DECK WILL PRODUCE CIGS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT THE HEIGHTS
WILL STEADILY RISE DURING THE DAY AND BY LATE MORNING SHOULD ALL
BE AOA FL030. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT
ANY LOWERED VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND
BRIEF.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 281136
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
636 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

IT WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVANCING
FROM MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO NORTHERN
IOWA...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS AND ISOLATES SPRINKLES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN EXPAND INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A VERY SHALLOW CLOUD
LAYER AND WITH AMPLE MIXING THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATER THIS
EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT MOST RAIN WILL
ONLY PRODUCE TRACES AND ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY
SPOTTY. WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MOVING IN...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
BELOW YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
TIME...BUT WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE KEEPING IA RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
TODAY WILL LIKELY FADE DIURNALLY SO FORECAST IS DRY UNTIL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRI AND SAT. ANYTHING THAT
DOES OCCUR WOULD STILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED WEAK PEAK HEATING
CONVECTION WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SO NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END CHANCES.

WITH IA IN WEAK NW FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH...
SURFACE FEATURES AND TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE.  PERSISTENT WEAK MO
VALLEY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A STAGNANT MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH HIGHS AND LOWS OFTEN WITHIN A FIVE DEGREE
WINDOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS WHEN MVFR OR IFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY AT FOD...AS A STRATOCUMULUS DECK
ADVANCES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS DECK WILL PRODUCE CIGS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TERMINALS...BUT THE HEIGHTS
WILL STEADILY RISE DURING THE DAY AND BY LATE MORNING SHOULD ALL
BE AOA FL030. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT
ANY LOWERED VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM WOULD BE VERY ISOLATED AND
BRIEF.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280830
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

IT WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVANCING
FROM MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO NORTHERN
IOWA...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS AND ISOLATES SPRINKLES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN EXPAND INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A VERY SHALLOW CLOUD
LAYER AND WITH AMPLE MIXING THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATER THIS
EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT MOST RAIN WILL
ONLY PRODUCE TRACES AND ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY
SPOTTY. WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MOVING IN...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
BELOW YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
TIME...BUT WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE KEEPING IA RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
TODAY WILL LIKELY FADE DIURNALLY SO FORECAST IS DRY UNTIL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRI AND SAT. ANYTHING THAT
DOES OCCUR WOULD STILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED WEAK PEAK HEATING
CONVECTION WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SO NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END CHANCES.

WITH IA IN WEAK NW FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH...
SURFACE FEATURES AND TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE.  PERSISTENT WEAK MO
VALLEY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A STAGNANT MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH HIGHS AND LOWS OFTEN WITHIN A FIVE DEGREE
WINDOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CLOUD DECK IN MN IS DESCENDING UPON IA BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL IT GET.  FOR NOW I GRADUALLY SPREAD IT SOUTH REACHING
KMCW BY 09Z...KFOD BY 12Z AND IN THE AFTN BY KDSM.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OR SO OF THE CWA.  COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLD BUT AND HARD TO TIME
SO VCSH WERE MAINLY WHAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KMCW AND KALO WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT BETTER.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280830
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

IT WILL BE ANOTHER RELATIVELY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH LIGHT TO
MODERATE NORTH NORTHWEST BREEZES. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ADVANCING
FROM MINNESOTA AND EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA DOWN INTO NORTHERN
IOWA...WITH REGIONAL RADAR SHOWING A FEW SPRINKLES ACROSS SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA. EXPECT THAT THESE CLOUDS AND ISOLATES SPRINKLES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY THIS
MORNING...THEN EXPAND INTO CENTRAL IOWA BY MIDDAY.
HOWEVER...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE ONLY A VERY SHALLOW CLOUD
LAYER AND WITH AMPLE MIXING THERE SHOULD BE INCREASING BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS AND A DOWNWARD TREND IN SPRINKLE/LIGHT SHOWER COVERAGE DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES RETURNING BY LATER THIS
EVENING. HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT MOST RAIN WILL
ONLY PRODUCE TRACES AND ANY LIGHT MEASURABLE AMOUNTS SHOULD BE VERY
SPOTTY. WITH THE HIGHER CLOUD COVER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT MOVING IN...HAVE GONE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR OR A LITTLE
BELOW YESTERDAYS LEVELS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT MON JUL 28 2014

MUCH LIKE YESTERDAY...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS ANTICIPATED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. HUDSON BAY UPPER LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH
TIME...BUT WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH LONG WAVE PATTERN WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE KEEPING IA RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY. ANY PRECIP THAT OCCURS
TODAY WILL LIKELY FADE DIURNALLY SO FORECAST IS DRY UNTIL MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INCREASE SLIGHTLY INTO FRI AND SAT. ANYTHING THAT
DOES OCCUR WOULD STILL LIKELY BE UNORGANIZED WEAK PEAK HEATING
CONVECTION WITH LITTLE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING OR LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE SO NOTHING MORE THAN LOW END CHANCES.

WITH IA IN WEAK NW FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH...
SURFACE FEATURES AND TEMPS WILL CHANGE LITTLE.  PERSISTENT WEAK MO
VALLEY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BREAKS DOWN SOMEWHAT LATER IN THE WORK
WEEK WITH WEAK LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS...BUT THE DOWNSTREAM SURFACE
FLOW WILL REMAIN WEAK AND REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN BY THE END
OF THE WEEKEND.  THIS WILL RESULT IN A STAGNANT MAINLY BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURE REGIME WITH HIGHS AND LOWS OFTEN WITHIN A FIVE DEGREE
WINDOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CLOUD DECK IN MN IS DESCENDING UPON IA BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL IT GET.  FOR NOW I GRADUALLY SPREAD IT SOUTH REACHING
KMCW BY 09Z...KFOD BY 12Z AND IN THE AFTN BY KDSM.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OR SO OF THE CWA.  COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLD BUT AND HARD TO TIME
SO VCSH WERE MAINLY WHAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KMCW AND KALO WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT BETTER.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 280449
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS LARGE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WITH DECREASED MIXING...WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN NICELY
THROUGH THE EVENING. MUCH OF THE CU FIELD ACROSS THE STATE IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO DISSIPATE WITH LACK OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH MODELS
SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS ENTERING THE FAR NORTH LATER
TONIGHT FROM MN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY THREAT FROM PCPN
FROM THIS AREA WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TEMPERATURES WERE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE OVER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND LEANED TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP 500MB
TROUGH REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND A
STUBBORN LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO POSSIBLY SPAWN A FEW
SHOWERS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS LIMITED SUPPORT WRT TO FORCING AND
MOISTURE...AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOL THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND KEPT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CLOUD DECK IN MN IS DESCENDING UPON IA BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL IT GET.  FOR NOW I GRADUALLY SPREAD IT SOUTH REACHING
KMCW BY 09Z...KFOD BY 12Z AND IN THE AFTN BY KDSM.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OR SO OF THE CWA.  COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLD BUT AND HARD TO TIME
SO VCSH WERE MAINLY WHAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KMCW AND KALO WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT BETTER.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 280449
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS LARGE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WITH DECREASED MIXING...WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN NICELY
THROUGH THE EVENING. MUCH OF THE CU FIELD ACROSS THE STATE IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO DISSIPATE WITH LACK OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH MODELS
SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS ENTERING THE FAR NORTH LATER
TONIGHT FROM MN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY THREAT FROM PCPN
FROM THIS AREA WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TEMPERATURES WERE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE OVER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND LEANED TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP 500MB
TROUGH REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND A
STUBBORN LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO POSSIBLY SPAWN A FEW
SHOWERS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS LIMITED SUPPORT WRT TO FORCING AND
MOISTURE...AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOL THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND KEPT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

CLOUD DECK IN MN IS DESCENDING UPON IA BUT THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR
SOUTH WILL IT GET.  FOR NOW I GRADUALLY SPREAD IT SOUTH REACHING
KMCW BY 09Z...KFOD BY 12Z AND IN THE AFTN BY KDSM.  AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NRN
HALF OR SO OF THE CWA.  COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLD BUT AND HARD TO TIME
SO VCSH WERE MAINLY WHAT WAS MENTIONED IN THE TAFS WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF KMCW AND KALO WHERE FORCING MAY BE A BIT BETTER.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 272323
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
625PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS LARGE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WITH DECREASED MIXING...WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN NICELY
THROUGH THE EVENING. MUCH OF THE CU FIELD ACROSS THE STATE IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO DISSIPATE WITH LACK OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH MODELS
SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS ENTERING THE FAR NORTH LATER
TONIGHT FROM MN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY THREAT FROM PCPN
FROM THIS AREA WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TEMPERATURES WERE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE OVER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND LEANED TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP 500MB
TROUGH REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND A
STUBBORN LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO POSSIBLY SPAWN A FEW
SHOWERS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS LIMITED SUPPORT WRT TO FORCING AND
MOISTURE...AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOL THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND KEPT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 625PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCT TO BKN STRATOCU FIELD WILL DIMINISH SOME WITH SUNSET AS WILL THE
GUSTINESS OF THE WIND.  STILL EXPECT TO SEE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND AFT
02Z AND KMCW/KALO MAY SEE A BKN DECK AT 030 AROUND 09Z THROUGH EARLY
MON MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE NE TAF LOCATIONS.
THIS SAME SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO
THE FAR N OR NE TAF LOCATIONS.  FOR NOW I JUST CARRIED VCSH FOR
KMCW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 272323
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
625PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS LARGE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WITH DECREASED MIXING...WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN NICELY
THROUGH THE EVENING. MUCH OF THE CU FIELD ACROSS THE STATE IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO DISSIPATE WITH LACK OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH MODELS
SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS ENTERING THE FAR NORTH LATER
TONIGHT FROM MN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY THREAT FROM PCPN
FROM THIS AREA WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TEMPERATURES WERE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE OVER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND LEANED TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP 500MB
TROUGH REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND A
STUBBORN LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO POSSIBLY SPAWN A FEW
SHOWERS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS LIMITED SUPPORT WRT TO FORCING AND
MOISTURE...AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOL THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND KEPT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 625PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

SCT TO BKN STRATOCU FIELD WILL DIMINISH SOME WITH SUNSET AS WILL THE
GUSTINESS OF THE WIND.  STILL EXPECT TO SEE A FEW CLOUDS AROUND AFT
02Z AND KMCW/KALO MAY SEE A BKN DECK AT 030 AROUND 09Z THROUGH EARLY
MON MORNING AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE DROPS ACROSS THE NE TAF LOCATIONS.
THIS SAME SHORTWAVE COULD BRING SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES TO
THE FAR N OR NE TAF LOCATIONS.  FOR NOW I JUST CARRIED VCSH FOR
KMCW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 272035
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS LARGE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WITH DECREASED MIXING...WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN NICELY
THROUGH THE EVENING. MUCH OF THE CU FIELD ACROSS THE STATE IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO DISSIPATE WITH LACK OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH MODELS
SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS ENTERING THE FAR NORTH LATER
TONIGHT FROM MN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY THREAT FROM PCPN
FROM THIS AREA WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TEMPERATURES WERE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE OVER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND LEANED TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP 500MB
TROUGH REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND A
STUBBORN LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO POSSIBLY SPAWN A FEW
SHOWERS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS LIMITED SUPPORT WRT TO FORCING AND
MOISTURE...AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOL THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND KEPT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MAINLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AS BROAD SHIELD OF STATOCU AND
CUMULUS SWING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANTICIPATE SOME CLEARING BY LATER EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING SUBSIDES ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE DENSER AREAS OF CLOUD MAY
PERSIST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING IN THE
NORTH AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. OTHERWISE...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD GRADIENT AROUND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE STATE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 272035
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS LARGE SYSTEM TO THE NORTHEAST
CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE
NIGHT AND WITH DECREASED MIXING...WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN NICELY
THROUGH THE EVENING. MUCH OF THE CU FIELD ACROSS THE STATE IS
EXPECTED TO ALSO DISSIPATE WITH LACK OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH MODELS
SUGGEST SOME ADDITIONAL CLOUDINESS ENTERING THE FAR NORTH LATER
TONIGHT FROM MN. HOWEVER...THERE IS LITTLE IF ANY THREAT FROM PCPN
FROM THIS AREA WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

TEMPERATURES WERE THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE OVER THE EXTENDED
PERIOD AND LEANED TOWARD A GFS/ECMWF BLEND FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST. HOWEVER...ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO THE ONGOING FORECAST.

THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS A DEEP 500MB
TROUGH REMAINS PLANTED OVER THE GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY AND A
STUBBORN LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDES ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE ON MONDAY AFTERNOON
WITH ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO POSSIBLY SPAWN A FEW
SHOWERS. A WEAK SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO BRING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
FRIDAY...BUT THE SYSTEM HAS LIMITED SUPPORT WRT TO FORCING AND
MOISTURE...AND HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MUCH PRECIP.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND COOL THROUGHOUT THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND AND KEPT TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MAINLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AS BROAD SHIELD OF STATOCU AND
CUMULUS SWING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANTICIPATE SOME CLEARING BY LATER EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING SUBSIDES ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE DENSER AREAS OF CLOUD MAY
PERSIST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING IN THE
NORTH AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. OTHERWISE...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD GRADIENT AROUND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE STATE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 271743
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1243 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FIRST IN A SERIES OF COOL FRONTS DRIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING. WEAK WINDS SO FAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT ALREADY SOME
MIXING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. SECOND BOUNDARY IS ABOUT HALFWAY
THROUGH MN AND WILL THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER TODAY. SOME
PATCHY FOG EARLY SOUTHEAST WILL DISSIPATE AS WINDS PICK UP THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA TODAY PROVIDED ENOUGH
FORCING AND ENHANCE INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHEAST TO GEN UP SOME
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER AFTER THE NOON HOUR TODAY...DIMINISHING
TOWARD EVENING. WITH THE INCREASED FLOW ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...WINDS WILL MIX CONSIDERABLY TODAY OVER ALL OF THE AREA.
EXPECTING SFC GRADIENT WINDS OF 20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING AND WINDS SHOULD RELAX QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. MOST OF
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THAT DONT EXPERIENCE FULL BLOWN CLOUD DECK AND
SHOWERS WILL SEE SCT-BKN FAIR WX CLOUDS ABOUT 4-5KFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH AND IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE
PATTERN CHANGE AS BLOCKY WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AS
PNA INDEX CONTINUES TO RISE. ONLY A FEW POTENTIAL WINDOWS OF PRECIP
EXIST AND ANY OF THOSE WOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT.  THE FIRST SUCH
WINDOW OCCURS MON WHEN SOME UNORGANIZED BUT UNCAPPED WEAK MLCAPES
DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING AND POTENTIALLY AIDED BY PASSAGE OF JET
SEGMENT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SHEAR VORTICITY FORCING. HI RES MODELS
DO DEPICT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE SENSE WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE.  ANYTHING THAT WOULD FORM SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET.

THE OVERALL FLOW WEAKENS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE PATTERN
ESSENTIALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH PERSISTENT MO VALLEY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK.  EXAMINATION OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO PHASING OF THE TWO
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.  HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
THERMODYNAMIC RECOVERY AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN THE NW
FLOW AROUND FRIDAY...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS THEN AND AGAIN SAT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SAT IS NOT GREAT.

THIS PATTERN WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AS WELL WITH NO
SIGN OF RETURN FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY TOP 80
AT TIMES...BUT OFTEN REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OR LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MAINLY VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AS BROAD SHIELD OF STATOCU AND
CUMULUS SWING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ANTICIPATE SOME CLEARING BY LATER EVENING AS DAYTIME
HEATING SUBSIDES ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE DENSER AREAS OF CLOUD MAY
PERSIST. ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TOWARD MORNING IN THE
NORTH AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES. OTHERWISE...STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH GOOD GRADIENT AROUND
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE. WINDS WILL SLACKEN CONSIDERABLY THIS
EVENING AS GRADIENT WEAKENS ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 271138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
638 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FIRST IN A SERIES OF COOL FRONTS DRIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING. WEAK WINDS SO FAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT ALREADY SOME
MIXING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. SECOND BOUNDARY IS ABOUT HALFWAY
THROUGH MN AND WILL THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER TODAY. SOME
PATCHY FOG EARLY SOUTHEAST WILL DISSIPATE AS WINDS PICK UP THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA TODAY PROVIDED ENOUGH
FORCING AND ENHANCE INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHEAST TO GEN UP SOME
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER AFTER THE NOON HOUR TODAY...DIMINISHING
TOWARD EVENING. WITH THE INCREASED FLOW ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...WINDS WILL MIX CONSIDERABLY TODAY OVER ALL OF THE AREA.
EXPECTING SFC GRADIENT WINDS OF 20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING AND WINDS SHOULD RELAX QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. MOST OF
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THAT DONT EXPERIENCE FULL BLOWN CLOUD DECK AND
SHOWERS WILL SEE SCT-BKN FAIR WX CLOUDS ABOUT 4-5KFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH AND IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE
PATTERN CHANGE AS BLOCKY WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AS
PNA INDEX CONTINUES TO RISE. ONLY A FEW POTENTIAL WINDOWS OF PRECIP
EXIST AND ANY OF THOSE WOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT.  THE FIRST SUCH
WINDOW OCCURS MON WHEN SOME UNORGANIZED BUT UNCAPPED WEAK MLCAPES
DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING AND POTENTIALLY AIDED BY PASSAGE OF JET
SEGMENT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SHEAR VORTICITY FORCING. HI RES MODELS
DO DEPICT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE SENSE WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE.  ANYTHING THAT WOULD FORM SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET.

THE OVERALL FLOW WEAKENS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE PATTERN
ESSENTIALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH PERSISTENT MO VALLEY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK.  EXAMINATION OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO PHASING OF THE TWO
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.  HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
THERMODYNAMIC RECOVERY AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN THE NW
FLOW AROUND FRIDAY...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS THEN AND AGAIN SAT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SAT IS NOT GREAT.

THIS PATTERN WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AS WELL WITH NO
SIGN OF RETURN FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY TOP 80
AT TIMES...BUT OFTEN REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OR LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HEADING SOUTHEAST TODAY WILL INCREASE MIXING
OVER THE AREA. LIMITED FG/BR SOUTHEAST LIFTING IN THE NEXT HOUR AT
KOTM...OTHERWISE CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WITH MVFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED...FOR THE SOUTH VFR CONDITIONS AFT 15-17Z AS
COLD POOL ALOFT BEGINS TO DESTABILIZE THE REGION. OVER THE
NORTHEAST SCT -SHRA AND ISO T FOR KALO AND KMCW AFT 17Z AS MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES STEEPEN WITH COLDER AIR FILTERING IN ALOFT. BY
23Z SHOULD SEE WINDS BEGIN TO RELAX AND CLOUDS BREAK UP WITH LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. LIGHT NW FLOW TO RETURN AFT 02Z WITH
DECOUPLING AND VFR CONDITIONS REGION WIDE. /REV


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 270846
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
346 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FIRST IN A SERIES OF COOL FRONTS DRIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING. WEAK WINDS SO FAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT ALREADY SOME
MIXING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. SECOND BOUNDARY IS ABOUT HALFWAY
THROUGH MN AND WILL THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER TODAY. SOME
PATCHY FOG EARLY SOUTHEAST WILL DISSIPATE AS WINDS PICK UP THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA TODAY PROVIDED ENOUGH
FORCING AND ENHANCE INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHEAST TO GEN UP SOME
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER AFTER THE NOON HOUR TODAY...DIMINISHING
TOWARD EVENING. WITH THE INCREASED FLOW ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...WINDS WILL MIX CONSIDERABLY TODAY OVER ALL OF THE AREA.
EXPECTING SFC GRADIENT WINDS OF 20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING AND WINDS SHOULD RELAX QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. MOST OF
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THAT DONT EXPERIENCE FULL BLOWN CLOUD DECK AND
SHOWERS WILL SEE SCT-BKN FAIR WX CLOUDS ABOUT 4-5KFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH AND IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE
PATTERN CHANGE AS BLOCKY WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AS
PNA INDEX CONTINUES TO RISE. ONLY A FEW POTENTIAL WINDOWS OF PRECIP
EXIST AND ANY OF THOSE WOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT.  THE FIRST SUCH
WINDOW OCCURS MON WHEN SOME UNORGANIZED BUT UNCAPPED WEAK MLCAPES
DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING AND POTENTIALLY AIDED BY PASSAGE OF JET
SEGMENT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SHEAR VORTICITY FORCING. HI RES MODELS
DO DEPICT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE SENSE WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE.  ANYTHING THAT WOULD FORM SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET.

THE OVERALL FLOW WEAKENS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE PATTERN
ESSENTIALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH PERSISTENT MO VALLEY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK.  EXAMINATION OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO PHASING OF THE TWO
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.  HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
THERMODYNAMIC RECOVERY AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN THE NW
FLOW AROUND FRIDAY...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS THEN AND AGAIN SAT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SAT IS NOT GREAT.

THIS PATTERN WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AS WELL WITH NO
SIGN OF RETURN FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY TOP 80
AT TIMES...BUT OFTEN REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OR LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN TAF LOCATIONS AFFECTING MAINLY
KOTM SO WILL KEEP OVC040-050 DECK IN FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA MAINLY NR KMCW AND
KALO BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND VERY ISOLD COVERAGE TSRA MENTION WAS
LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.  A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW IA AND
PUSH ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A LARGE UPPER LOW
MOVES SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS
NRN/NERN TAF LOCATIONS AFT09Z AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING ON SUNDAY.  SFC WIND WILL BE NRLY
AT 15G30KTS THROUGH 21Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 270846
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
346 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FIRST IN A SERIES OF COOL FRONTS DRIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA
THIS MORNING. WEAK WINDS SO FAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT ALREADY SOME
MIXING IS TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AS COOLER AIR
ALOFT BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST. SECOND BOUNDARY IS ABOUT HALFWAY
THROUGH MN AND WILL THE DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER TODAY. SOME
PATCHY FOG EARLY SOUTHEAST WILL DISSIPATE AS WINDS PICK UP THIS
MORNING. OTHERWISE COOLER TEMPS ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM CROSSING WISCONSIN/MINNESOTA TODAY PROVIDED ENOUGH
FORCING AND ENHANCE INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHEAST TO GEN UP SOME
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER AFTER THE NOON HOUR TODAY...DIMINISHING
TOWARD EVENING. WITH THE INCREASED FLOW ALOFT AND STEEPENING LAPSE
RATES...WINDS WILL MIX CONSIDERABLY TODAY OVER ALL OF THE AREA.
EXPECTING SFC GRADIENT WINDS OF 20KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35KTS BY LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THE SYSTEM WILL QUICKLY EXIT THE AREA BY THIS
EVENING AND WINDS SHOULD RELAX QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. MOST OF
SOUTHERN SECTIONS THAT DONT EXPERIENCE FULL BLOWN CLOUD DECK AND
SHOWERS WILL SEE SCT-BKN FAIR WX CLOUDS ABOUT 4-5KFT DURING THE
AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO MID 70S NORTH AND IN
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

THE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE UNEVENTFUL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE
PATTERN CHANGE AS BLOCKY WRN RIDGE/ERN TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE AS
PNA INDEX CONTINUES TO RISE. ONLY A FEW POTENTIAL WINDOWS OF PRECIP
EXIST AND ANY OF THOSE WOULD BE INSIGNIFICANT.  THE FIRST SUCH
WINDOW OCCURS MON WHEN SOME UNORGANIZED BUT UNCAPPED WEAK MLCAPES
DEVELOP DURING PEAK HEATING AND POTENTIALLY AIDED BY PASSAGE OF JET
SEGMENT AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SHEAR VORTICITY FORCING. HI RES MODELS
DO DEPICT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THIS SCENARIO WOULD MAKE SENSE WITH
LITTLE CONVERGENCE.  ANYTHING THAT WOULD FORM SHOULD QUICKLY
DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET.

THE OVERALL FLOW WEAKENS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE PATTERN
ESSENTIALLY REMAINS UNCHANGED WITH PERSISTENT MO VALLEY SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK.  EXAMINATION OF SYNOPTIC
SCALE MOISTURE AND FORCING SUGGESTS LITTLE TO NO PHASING OF THE TWO
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.  HOWEVER THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME
THERMODYNAMIC RECOVERY AHEAD OF A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSAGE IN THE NW
FLOW AROUND FRIDAY...SO HAVE KEPT LOW POPS THEN AND AGAIN SAT
ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN SAT IS NOT GREAT.

THIS PATTERN WILL OBVIOUSLY KEEP TEMPS BELOW NORMAL AS WELL WITH NO
SIGN OF RETURN FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND. HIGHS MAY TOP 80
AT TIMES...BUT OFTEN REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S OR LOWER
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN TAF LOCATIONS AFFECTING MAINLY
KOTM SO WILL KEEP OVC040-050 DECK IN FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA MAINLY NR KMCW AND
KALO BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND VERY ISOLD COVERAGE TSRA MENTION WAS
LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.  A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW IA AND
PUSH ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A LARGE UPPER LOW
MOVES SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS
NRN/NERN TAF LOCATIONS AFT09Z AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING ON SUNDAY.  SFC WIND WILL BE NRLY
AT 15G30KTS THROUGH 21Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 270433
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1130 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN IA/NR MO WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CANADA MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA.  ANY STORM CHANCES WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST.  I HAVE REMOVED MENTION
OF PRECIP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS MN INTO SE SDKTA WILL SINK INTO NW IA OVER NIGHT
AND CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE AND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
SWING IN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN.  WINDS ACROSS THE FAR N/NE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 09Z WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 12-15Z SUNDAY THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND ALL THE HIGH RES
SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM TO OVERDO THE PRECIP POTENTIAL EXCEPT FOR ONE
OF THE HOPWRF MEMBERS.  THE NAM12 IS ALSO QUITE DRY.  THERE WILL BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIGHT FOG UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AND SCOURS EVERYTHING OUT BUT IT WILL BE TOO PATCHY TO PUT IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THOUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS TO
THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE MOVING AND DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO
INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED
FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN IOWA AT 18Z.  THE
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND THEIR
IMPACTS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WAS
RELATIVELY STABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA OF DRY AIR AT
850 MB COUPLED WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW CENTERED OVER THE STATE
ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESO PAGE. THE POCKET OF DRY AIR IS
COINCIDENT WITH A SMALL SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN IOWA AT 18Z.
SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS ALONG WITH 12Z NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST
VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO UNSTABLE AIR OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD DESTABILIZE ALONG A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS
NEAR THE IOWA AND MISSOURI BORDER. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE SOUTHERN IOWA...CLOSE TO THE
MISSOURI BORDER. MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA WILL LIKELY BE
DRY. AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH...FOR LATE JULY...MOVES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
IOWA. THE FRONT WILL CLEAN OUT ALL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND IT
WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FORECAST FIELDS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY CARVING OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
BIG STORY FOR IOWA WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR OVER THE STATE. 850
MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM 8-12 DEGREES C ACCORDING TO THE
12Z GFS WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.  KEPT MENTION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH THE 500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS RETROGRADE THE
UPPER LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN TAF LOCATIONS AFFECTING MAINLY
KOTM SO WILL KEEP OVC040-050 DECK IN FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA MAINLY NR KMCW AND
KALO BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND VERY ISOLD COVERAGE TSRA MENTION WAS
LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.  A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW IA AND
PUSH ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A LARGE UPPER LOW
MOVES SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS
NRN/NERN TAF LOCATIONS AFT09Z AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING ON SUNDAY.  SFC WIND WILL BE NRLY
AT 15G30KTS THROUGH 21Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 270433
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1130 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN IA/NR MO WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH
OVERNIGHT AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS CANADA MOVES
SOUTHEAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES AREA.  ANY STORM CHANCES WITH THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST.  I HAVE REMOVED MENTION
OF PRECIP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.

A COLD FRONT ACROSS MN INTO SE SDKTA WILL SINK INTO NW IA OVER NIGHT
AND CONTINUE TO PUSH ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY.  COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE AND AS THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW
SWING IN THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN.  WINDS ACROSS THE FAR N/NE WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE AFT 09Z WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS DEVELOPING
BETWEEN 12-15Z SUNDAY THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.  THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND ALL THE HIGH RES
SHORT TERM MODELS SEEM TO OVERDO THE PRECIP POTENTIAL EXCEPT FOR ONE
OF THE HOPWRF MEMBERS.  THE NAM12 IS ALSO QUITE DRY.  THERE WILL BE
SOME POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIGHT FOG UNTIL THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
AND SCOURS EVERYTHING OUT BUT IT WILL BE TOO PATCHY TO PUT IN THE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THOUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS TO
THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE MOVING AND DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO
INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED
FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN IOWA AT 18Z.  THE
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND THEIR
IMPACTS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WAS
RELATIVELY STABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA OF DRY AIR AT
850 MB COUPLED WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW CENTERED OVER THE STATE
ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESO PAGE. THE POCKET OF DRY AIR IS
COINCIDENT WITH A SMALL SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN IOWA AT 18Z.
SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS ALONG WITH 12Z NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST
VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO UNSTABLE AIR OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD DESTABILIZE ALONG A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS
NEAR THE IOWA AND MISSOURI BORDER. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE SOUTHERN IOWA...CLOSE TO THE
MISSOURI BORDER. MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA WILL LIKELY BE
DRY. AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH...FOR LATE JULY...MOVES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
IOWA. THE FRONT WILL CLEAN OUT ALL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND IT
WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FORECAST FIELDS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY CARVING OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
BIG STORY FOR IOWA WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR OVER THE STATE. 850
MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM 8-12 DEGREES C ACCORDING TO THE
12Z GFS WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.  KEPT MENTION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH THE 500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS RETROGRADE THE
UPPER LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1130 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN TAF LOCATIONS AFFECTING MAINLY
KOTM SO WILL KEEP OVC040-050 DECK IN FOR SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT.
AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE WITH FROPA MAINLY NR KMCW AND
KALO BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY AND VERY ISOLD COVERAGE TSRA MENTION WAS
LEFT OUT OF TAFS AT THIS TIME.  A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER NW IA AND
PUSH ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS A LARGE UPPER LOW
MOVES SE INTO THE GREAT LAKES.  GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS
NRN/NERN TAF LOCATIONS AFT09Z AND SPREAD ACROSS THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING ON SUNDAY.  SFC WIND WILL BE NRLY
AT 15G30KTS THROUGH 21Z BEFORE DIMINISHING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 262350
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
649 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THOUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS TO
THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE MOVING AND DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO
INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED
FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN IOWA AT 18Z.  THE
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND THEIR
IMPACTS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WAS
RELATIVELY STABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA OF DRY AIR AT
850 MB COUPLED WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW CENTERED OVER THE STATE
ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESO PAGE. THE POCKET OF DRY AIR IS
COINCIDENT WITH A SMALL SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN IOWA AT 18Z.
SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS ALONG WITH 12Z NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST
VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO UNSTABLE AIR OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD DESTABILIZE ALONG A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS
NEAR THE IOWA AND MISSOURI BORDER. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE SOUTHERN IOWA...CLOSE TO THE
MISSOURI BORDER. MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA WILL LIKELY BE
DRY. AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH...FOR LATE JULY...MOVES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
IOWA. THE FRONT WILL CLEAN OUT ALL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND IT
WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FORECAST FIELDS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY CARVING OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
BIG STORY FOR IOWA WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR OVER THE STATE. 850
MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM 8-12 DEGREES C ACCORDING TO THE
12Z GFS WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.  KEPT MENTION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH THE 500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS RETROGRADE THE
UPPER LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

STILL A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 02Z OR SO BUT COVERAGE WOULD BE SO
ISOLD IT IS NOT WORTH A MENTION IN THE TAFS.  ACROSS THE SOUTH THERE
IS A LOT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME SHEAR ALONG A WARM FRONT BUT STORMS
HAVE FIRED FURTHER SOUTH AND IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS BUT THIS STILL REMAINS OUR
BEST LOCATION FOR STORMS TO FIRE.  ONCE AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
PASSES BY BETWEEN 03-05Z ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE. NRLY WIND
INCREASE AFT 12Z SUN TO 15-30KT AS A LARGE LOW PRES SYSTEM SLIDES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 262350
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
649 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THOUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS TO
THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE MOVING AND DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO
INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED
FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN IOWA AT 18Z.  THE
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND THEIR
IMPACTS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WAS
RELATIVELY STABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA OF DRY AIR AT
850 MB COUPLED WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW CENTERED OVER THE STATE
ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESO PAGE. THE POCKET OF DRY AIR IS
COINCIDENT WITH A SMALL SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN IOWA AT 18Z.
SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS ALONG WITH 12Z NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST
VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO UNSTABLE AIR OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD DESTABILIZE ALONG A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS
NEAR THE IOWA AND MISSOURI BORDER. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE SOUTHERN IOWA...CLOSE TO THE
MISSOURI BORDER. MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA WILL LIKELY BE
DRY. AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH...FOR LATE JULY...MOVES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
IOWA. THE FRONT WILL CLEAN OUT ALL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND IT
WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FORECAST FIELDS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY CARVING OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
BIG STORY FOR IOWA WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR OVER THE STATE. 850
MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM 8-12 DEGREES C ACCORDING TO THE
12Z GFS WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.  KEPT MENTION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH THE 500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS RETROGRADE THE
UPPER LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

STILL A POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED STORM WITH THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN TAF LOCATIONS THROUGH 02Z OR SO BUT COVERAGE WOULD BE SO
ISOLD IT IS NOT WORTH A MENTION IN THE TAFS.  ACROSS THE SOUTH THERE
IS A LOT OF INSTABILITY AND SOME SHEAR ALONG A WARM FRONT BUT STORMS
HAVE FIRED FURTHER SOUTH AND IT IS DOUBTFUL THAT WE WILL SEE MUCH
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS BUT THIS STILL REMAINS OUR
BEST LOCATION FOR STORMS TO FIRE.  ONCE AN UPPER LEVEL FEATURE
PASSES BY BETWEEN 03-05Z ALL PRECIP CHANCES WILL WANE. NRLY WIND
INCREASE AFT 12Z SUN TO 15-30KT AS A LARGE LOW PRES SYSTEM SLIDES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 261958
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
258 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THOUGH MONDAY/
... ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS TO
THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE MOVING AND DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO
INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED
FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN IOWA AT 18Z.  THE
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND THEIR
IMPACTS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WAS
RELATIVELY STABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA OF DRY AIR AT
850 MB COUPLED WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW CENTERED OVER THE STATE
ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESO PAGE. THE POCKET OF DRY AIR IS
COINCIDENT WITH A SMALL SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN IOWA AT 18Z.
SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS ALONG WITH 12Z NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST
VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO UNSTABLE AIR OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD DESTABALIZE ALONG A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS
NEAR THE IOWA AND MISSOURI BORDER. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE SOUTHERN IOWA...CLOSE TO THE
MISSOURI BORDER. MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA WILL LIKELY BE
DRY. AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH...FOR LATE JULY...MOVES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
IOWA. THE FRONT WILL CLEAN OUT ALL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND IT
WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FORECAST FIELDS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY CARVING OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
BIG STORY FOR IOWA WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR OVER THE STATE. 850
MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM 8-12 DEGREES C ACCORDING TO THE
12Z GFS WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.  KEPT MENTION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
... ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH THE 500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS RETROGRADE THE
UPPER LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NOTABLE CHANGES SINCE 12Z TAF. IN THE SHORT TERM...TSRA OVER NW
IOWA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND IMPACT KFOD AND KMCW FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BOUNDARY
LOCATED IN NORTHERN MO WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WX THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
PRIMARY THREAT...LARGE HAIL SECONDARY THREAT. DROPPED TS FROM
KDSM TAFS AS IT APPEARS STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF METRO AREA.
LEFT TSRA IN KOTM TAFS...BUT STORMS MAY STAY SOUTH OF KOTM AS
WELL. WILL...OF COURSE...BE MONITORING AND UPDATING THROUGHOUT
DAY. SKC AND LIGHT WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR OVERNIGHT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...KOTENBERG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 261958
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
258 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THOUGH MONDAY/
... ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WAS SHOWING ADVERTISED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA MOVING SOUTHEAST TOWARDS TO
THE GREAT LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.  THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WERE MOVING AND DEVELOPING SOUTH INTO
INSTABILITY GRADIENT.  AT THE SURFACE...A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED
FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA EAST THROUGH FAR SOUTHERN IOWA AT 18Z.  THE
IMMEDIATE FORECAST CONCERN IS THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND THEIR
IMPACTS. THE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL IOWA WAS
RELATIVELY STABLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH AN AREA OF DRY AIR AT
850 MB COUPLED WITH LIGHT NORTHEAST FLOW CENTERED OVER THE STATE
ACCORDING TO THE SPC MESO PAGE. THE POCKET OF DRY AIR IS
COINCIDENT WITH A SMALL SURFACE HIGH OVER NORTHERN IOWA AT 18Z.
SHORT RANGE MESOSCALE MODELS ALONG WITH 12Z NAM/GFS ALL SUGGEST
VERY LITTLE ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO UNSTABLE AIR OVER SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHERN MISSOURI LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL IOWA SHOULD DESTABALIZE ALONG A LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AXIS
NEAR THE IOWA AND MISSOURI BORDER. AT THIS POINT...THE BEST CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE SOUTHERN IOWA...CLOSE TO THE
MISSOURI BORDER. MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA WILL LIKELY BE
DRY. AS THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH...FOR LATE JULY...MOVES
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
IOWA. THE FRONT WILL CLEAN OUT ALL MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES AND IT
WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MASS FORECAST FIELDS SUNDAY
AND MONDAY CARVING OUT A DEEP UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
BIG STORY FOR IOWA WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL AIR OVER THE STATE. 850
MB TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FROM 8-12 DEGREES C ACCORDING TO THE
12Z GFS WHICH APPEARS REASONABLE.  KEPT MENTION OF SHOWER ACTIVITY
IN THE NORTHEAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
... ISSUED AT 223 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

EASTERN CONUS UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE EXTENDED
WITH THE 500 MB UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES. AT THE
SURFACE...A LARGE SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH THE
PERIOD. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE 12Z ECMWF/GFS RETROGRADE THE
UPPER LOW ENOUGH TO SUPPORT A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
OTHERWISE...DRY AND CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NOTABLE CHANGES SINCE 12Z TAF. IN THE SHORT TERM...TSRA OVER NW
IOWA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND IMPACT KFOD AND KMCW FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BOUNDARY
LOCATED IN NORTHERN MO WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WX THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
PRIMARY THREAT...LARGE HAIL SECONDARY THREAT. DROPPED TS FROM
KDSM TAFS AS IT APPEARS STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF METRO AREA.
LEFT TSRA IN KOTM TAFS...BUT STORMS MAY STAY SOUTH OF KOTM AS
WELL. WILL...OF COURSE...BE MONITORING AND UPDATING THROUGHOUT
DAY. SKC AND LIGHT WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR OVERNIGHT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...KOTENBERG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 261742
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1242 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY AS CONFIDENCE OF EVOLUTION OF MESO
SCALE ONLY MODEST AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE AN RATHER ACTIVE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTH. AFTER EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT H850 IS DRIVING WARM AIR AND RATHER HIGH MOISTURE
INTO IOWA AND SURROUNDING STATES. A LARGE POOL OF 15C DEW POINTS
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KS... COVERING ALL OF IOWA AND NORTHERN MO AS
WELL AS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AT
MID LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA IN RESPONSE TO THIS MOISTURE AND A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/ZONE OF H850 30KT LLJ MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SO
FAR THERE IS TOO MUCH CIN TO REALLY LET ANYTHING GO AT THIS TIME.
NORTHWEST OF US A PRONOUNCED H700 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WY/MT WILL
SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY. AHEAD OF IT A WEAKER WAVE IS PRODUCING A
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG A RATHER
MINOR TROUGH AT H850 THAT EXTENDS FROM SUPERIOR/DULUTH BACK
SOUTHWESTWARD TO HURON AND RAPID CITY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING PRIOR TO NOON.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION THOUGH...IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
BY LATE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STRONGER H700 WAVE
AND H500 WESTERLIES INCREASING TO 50KTS BY 00Z AND H300 WINDS
NEARING 70 TO 85KTS BY 00Z OVER IOWA.

THIS MORNING A WEAK SFC LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A PRONOUNCED 2500 TO
3500 J/KG MLCAPE MAX WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER COUNTIES BY
18Z...WITH HEATING INCREASING INSTABILITY TO 3500 J/KG NEAR DES
MOINES TO 5500 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER.  HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN
NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA WHILE THE NMM/ARW SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA WILL DISSIPATE AND REDEVLOP OVER FAR
SOUTHERN IA/MO.  HOPWRF ALSO SHOWS EASTERN NEBRASKA CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON MOVING ESE. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE MEAN AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...WITH
TRANSLATION ABOUT 30 TO 40 KTS. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE
IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY 00Z...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR
WEST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO THE AXIS OF HIGH CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...AM LEANING TOWARD
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA AND STRENGTHENING
RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE POOL IN AND
NEAR IOWA TO THE SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED POP ACROSS THIS AREA TO
REFLECT THAT SCENARIO.  THE SOUTH IS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT
RISK...LOOKS VERY REASONABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRENGTHENING
FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY LATER TODAY THROUGH EITHER SOUTHERN IOWA OR NORTHERN
MISSOURI.  THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER IMPACT CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF THE SYSTEM GETS STRONG ENOUGH PRIOR TO MOVING SOUTH/EAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO OVER TWO
INCHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
OF 13 TO 14KFT TODAY AS WELL. IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP...
A QUICK 1 TO +2 INCHES IS VERY POSSIBLE DESPITE THE PROJECTED FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WARM SOUTH IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
NOT BE APPRECIABLE STRONG AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NEARLY ALL OF THE CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE EARLY ON...THIS
EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY PRIMED DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH THE GFS/NAM SUGGESTING MLCAPES 4K J/KG OR GREATER AND
LITTLE CINH. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER A TRIGGER MECHANISM WILL
BE IN PLACE AND THAT SEEMS TO BE LESS AND LESS OF A CONCERN
JUDGING FROM CURRENT UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/PV ANOMALIES
TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS RIDGE AND EMBEDDED IN THE SEASONALLY FAST
PACIFIC NW TO NRN PLAINS UPPER FLOW. THIS KINEMATIC FORCING IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING SMALL WRN KS AND SD CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN
AREAS OF WEAK THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. THUS EXPECT REMNANTS OF THESE
FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED FORCING TO BE TRAVERSING SRN IA/NRN MO
DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF CURRENT SURFACE
FRONT...NOTED ALONG SRN ONE/TWO TIERS OF IA COUNTIES PER 07Z
ANALYSIS. OPERATIONAL AND HI RES MODELS SUGGEST CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE INTO MO BY 00Z...BUT
EXISTING CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY MAY ALSO BE IN PLACE
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION.  ALTHOUGH THE SHALLOW SHEAR IS WEAK...THE DEEP SHEAR
SHOULD BE IN THE 50KT RANGE SUGGESTING ANYTHING THAT DOES NEWLY DEVELOP
COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY. ALTHOUGH THE 0-1KM KINEMATICS
ARE WEAK...THE DEGREE OF DEEP AND 0-3KM INSTABILITY MAY KEEP A FEW
THERMODYNAMICALLY DOMINATE TORNADOES IN THE PICTURE AS WELL...IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND AND HAIL THREAT AS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND LIKELY
BECOMES MORE LINEAR. WHATEVER DOES OCCUR WILL EITHER MOVE OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA QUICKLY...OR STAY INTO NRN MO SO OUR WINDOW WILL
BE BRIEF WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR WARM
ADVECTION RIGHT ON THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND EITHER UNIFORM NW
SURFACE FLOW OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR THE CORE OF THE CURRENT
SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MAY DEVELOP
SOME SHOWERS NE DURING PEAK HEATING SUN...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE EITHER
A DRY FORECAST OR ONLY SLIGHTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS OFTEN IN THE 70S AND NO
BETTER THAN THE LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD OFTEN BE IN THE 50S OR LOWER
60S. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOME
HEIGHT RISES...THE OVERALL PATTERN /MORE POSITIVE PNA/ WILL
CHANGE LITTLE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NOTABLE CHANGES SINCE 12Z TAF. IN THE SHORT TERM...TSRA OVER NW
IOWA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND IMPACT KFOD AND KMCW FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BOUNDARY
LOCATED IN NORTHERN MO WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WX THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
PRIMARY THREAT...LARGE HAIL SECONDARY THREAT. DROPPED TS FROM
KDSM TAFS AS IT APPEARS STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF METRO AREA.
LEFT TSRA IN KOTM TAFS...BUT STORMS MAY STAY SOUTH OF KOTM AS
WELL. WILL...OF COURSE...BE MONITORING AND UPDATING THROUGHOUT
DAY. SKC AND LIGHT WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 261742
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1242 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY AS CONFIDENCE OF EVOLUTION OF MESO
SCALE ONLY MODEST AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE AN RATHER ACTIVE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTH. AFTER EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT H850 IS DRIVING WARM AIR AND RATHER HIGH MOISTURE
INTO IOWA AND SURROUNDING STATES. A LARGE POOL OF 15C DEW POINTS
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KS... COVERING ALL OF IOWA AND NORTHERN MO AS
WELL AS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AT
MID LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA IN RESPONSE TO THIS MOISTURE AND A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/ZONE OF H850 30KT LLJ MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SO
FAR THERE IS TOO MUCH CIN TO REALLY LET ANYTHING GO AT THIS TIME.
NORTHWEST OF US A PRONOUNCED H700 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WY/MT WILL
SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY. AHEAD OF IT A WEAKER WAVE IS PRODUCING A
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG A RATHER
MINOR TROUGH AT H850 THAT EXTENDS FROM SUPERIOR/DULUTH BACK
SOUTHWESTWARD TO HURON AND RAPID CITY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING PRIOR TO NOON.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION THOUGH...IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
BY LATE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STRONGER H700 WAVE
AND H500 WESTERLIES INCREASING TO 50KTS BY 00Z AND H300 WINDS
NEARING 70 TO 85KTS BY 00Z OVER IOWA.

THIS MORNING A WEAK SFC LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A PRONOUNCED 2500 TO
3500 J/KG MLCAPE MAX WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER COUNTIES BY
18Z...WITH HEATING INCREASING INSTABILITY TO 3500 J/KG NEAR DES
MOINES TO 5500 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER.  HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN
NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA WHILE THE NMM/ARW SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA WILL DISSIPATE AND REDEVLOP OVER FAR
SOUTHERN IA/MO.  HOPWRF ALSO SHOWS EASTERN NEBRASKA CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON MOVING ESE. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE MEAN AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...WITH
TRANSLATION ABOUT 30 TO 40 KTS. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE
IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY 00Z...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR
WEST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO THE AXIS OF HIGH CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...AM LEANING TOWARD
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA AND STRENGTHENING
RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE POOL IN AND
NEAR IOWA TO THE SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED POP ACROSS THIS AREA TO
REFLECT THAT SCENARIO.  THE SOUTH IS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT
RISK...LOOKS VERY REASONABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRENGTHENING
FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY LATER TODAY THROUGH EITHER SOUTHERN IOWA OR NORTHERN
MISSOURI.  THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER IMPACT CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF THE SYSTEM GETS STRONG ENOUGH PRIOR TO MOVING SOUTH/EAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO OVER TWO
INCHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
OF 13 TO 14KFT TODAY AS WELL. IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP...
A QUICK 1 TO +2 INCHES IS VERY POSSIBLE DESPITE THE PROJECTED FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WARM SOUTH IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
NOT BE APPRECIABLE STRONG AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NEARLY ALL OF THE CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE EARLY ON...THIS
EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY PRIMED DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH THE GFS/NAM SUGGESTING MLCAPES 4K J/KG OR GREATER AND
LITTLE CINH. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER A TRIGGER MECHANISM WILL
BE IN PLACE AND THAT SEEMS TO BE LESS AND LESS OF A CONCERN
JUDGING FROM CURRENT UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/PV ANOMALIES
TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS RIDGE AND EMBEDDED IN THE SEASONALLY FAST
PACIFIC NW TO NRN PLAINS UPPER FLOW. THIS KINEMATIC FORCING IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING SMALL WRN KS AND SD CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN
AREAS OF WEAK THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. THUS EXPECT REMNANTS OF THESE
FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED FORCING TO BE TRAVERSING SRN IA/NRN MO
DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF CURRENT SURFACE
FRONT...NOTED ALONG SRN ONE/TWO TIERS OF IA COUNTIES PER 07Z
ANALYSIS. OPERATIONAL AND HI RES MODELS SUGGEST CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE INTO MO BY 00Z...BUT
EXISTING CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY MAY ALSO BE IN PLACE
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION.  ALTHOUGH THE SHALLOW SHEAR IS WEAK...THE DEEP SHEAR
SHOULD BE IN THE 50KT RANGE SUGGESTING ANYTHING THAT DOES NEWLY DEVELOP
COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY. ALTHOUGH THE 0-1KM KINEMATICS
ARE WEAK...THE DEGREE OF DEEP AND 0-3KM INSTABILITY MAY KEEP A FEW
THERMODYNAMICALLY DOMINATE TORNADOES IN THE PICTURE AS WELL...IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND AND HAIL THREAT AS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND LIKELY
BECOMES MORE LINEAR. WHATEVER DOES OCCUR WILL EITHER MOVE OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA QUICKLY...OR STAY INTO NRN MO SO OUR WINDOW WILL
BE BRIEF WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR WARM
ADVECTION RIGHT ON THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND EITHER UNIFORM NW
SURFACE FLOW OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR THE CORE OF THE CURRENT
SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MAY DEVELOP
SOME SHOWERS NE DURING PEAK HEATING SUN...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE EITHER
A DRY FORECAST OR ONLY SLIGHTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS OFTEN IN THE 70S AND NO
BETTER THAN THE LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD OFTEN BE IN THE 50S OR LOWER
60S. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOME
HEIGHT RISES...THE OVERALL PATTERN /MORE POSITIVE PNA/ WILL
CHANGE LITTLE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1235 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NOTABLE CHANGES SINCE 12Z TAF. IN THE SHORT TERM...TSRA OVER NW
IOWA. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE EAST AND IMPACT KFOD AND KMCW FOR
NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BOUNDARY
LOCATED IN NORTHERN MO WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN IA. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR SEVERE WX THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
PRIMARY THREAT...LARGE HAIL SECONDARY THREAT. DROPPED TS FROM
KDSM TAFS AS IT APPEARS STORMS SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF METRO AREA.
LEFT TSRA IN KOTM TAFS...BUT STORMS MAY STAY SOUTH OF KOTM AS
WELL. WILL...OF COURSE...BE MONITORING AND UPDATING THROUGHOUT
DAY. SKC AND LIGHT WINDS BEHIND THIS SYSTEM FOR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 261128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY AS CONFIDENCE OF EVOLUTION OF MESO
SCALE ONLY MODEST AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE AN RATHER ACTIVE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTH. AFTER EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT H850 IS DRIVING WARM AIR AND RATHER HIGH MOISTURE
INTO IOWA AND SURROUNDING STATES. A LARGE POOL OF 15C DEW POINTS
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KS... COVERING ALL OF IOWA AND NORTHERN MO AS
WELL AS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AT
MID LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA IN RESPONSE TO THIS MOISTURE AND A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/ZONE OF H850 30KT LLJ MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SO
FAR THERE IS TOO MUCH CIN TO REALLY LET ANYTHING GO AT THIS TIME.
NORTHWEST OF US A PRONOUNCED H700 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WY/MT WILL
SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY. AHEAD OF IT A WEAKER WAVE IS PRODUCING A
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG A RATHER
MINOR TROUGH AT H850 THAT EXTENDS FROM SUPERIOR/DULUTH BACK
SOUTHWESTWARD TO HURON AND RAPID CITY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING PRIOR TO NOON.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION THOUGH...IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
BY LATE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STRONGER H700 WAVE
AND H500 WESTERLIES INCREASING TO 50KTS BY 00Z AND H300 WINDS
NEARING 70 TO 85KTS BY 00Z OVER IOWA.

THIS MORNING A WEAK SFC LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A PRONOUNCED 2500 TO
3500 J/KG MLCAPE MAX WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER COUNTIES BY
18Z...WITH HEATING INCREASING INSTABILITY TO 3500 J/KG NEAR DES
MOINES TO 5500 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER.  HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN
NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA WHILE THE NMM/ARW SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA WILL DISSIPATE AND REDEVLOP OVER FAR
SOUTHERN IA/MO.  HOPWRF ALSO SHOWS EASTERN NEBRASKA CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON MOVING ESE. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE MEAN AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...WITH
TRANSLATION ABOUT 30 TO 40 KTS. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE
IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY 00Z...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR
WEST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO THE AXIS OF HIGH CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...AM LEANING TOWARD
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA AND STRENGTHENING
RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE POOL IN AND
NEAR IOWA TO THE SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED POP ACROSS THIS AREA TO
REFLECT THAT SCENARIO.  THE SOUTH IS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT
RISK...LOOKS VERY REASONABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRENGTHENING
FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY LATER TODAY THROUGH EITHER SOUTHERN IOWA OR NORTHERN
MISSOURI.  THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER IMPACT CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF THE SYSTEM GETS STRONG ENOUGH PRIOR TO MOVING SOUTH/EAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO OVER TWO
INCHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
OF 13 TO 14KFT TODAY AS WELL. IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP...
A QUICK 1 TO +2 INCHES IS VERY POSSIBLE DESPITE THE PROJECTED FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WARM SOUTH IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
NOT BE APPRECIABLE STRONG AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NEARLY ALL OF THE CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE EARLY ON...THIS
EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY PRIMED DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH THE GFS/NAM SUGGESTING MLCAPES 4K J/KG OR GREATER AND
LITTLE CINH. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER A TRIGGER MECHANISM WILL
BE IN PLACE AND THAT SEEMS TO BE LESS AND LESS OF A CONCERN
JUDGING FROM CURRENT UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/PV ANOMALIES
TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS RIDGE AND EMBEDDED IN THE SEASONALLY FAST
PACIFIC NW TO NRN PLAINS UPPER FLOW. THIS KINEMATIC FORCING IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING SMALL WRN KS AND SD CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN
AREAS OF WEAK THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. THUS EXPECT REMNANTS OF THESE
FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED FORCING TO BE TRAVERSING SRN IA/NRN MO
DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF CURRENT SURFACE
FRONT...NOTED ALONG SRN ONE/TWO TIERS OF IA COUNTIES PER 07Z
ANALYSIS. OPERATIONAL AND HI RES MODELS SUGGEST CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE INTO MO BY 00Z...BUT
EXISTING CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY MAY ALSO BE IN PLACE
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION.  ALTHOUGH THE SHALLOW SHEAR IS WEAK...THE DEEP SHEAR
SHOULD BE IN THE 50KT RANGE SUGGESTING ANYTHING THAT DOES NEWLY DEVELOP
COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY. ALTHOUGH THE 0-1KM KINEMATICS
ARE WEAK...THE DEGREE OF DEEP AND 0-3KM INSTABILITY MAY KEEP A FEW
THERMODYNAMICALLY DOMINATE TORNADOES IN THE PICTURE AS WELL...IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND AND HAIL THREAT AS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND LIKELY
BECOMES MORE LINEAR. WHATEVER DOES OCCUR WILL EITHER MOVE OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA QUICKLY...OR STAY INTO NRN MO SO OUR WINDOW WILL
BE BRIEF WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR WARM
ADVECTION RIGHT ON THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND EITHER UNIFORM NW
SURFACE FLOW OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR THE CORE OF THE CURRENT
SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MAY DEVELOP
SOME SHOWERS NE DURING PEAK HEATING SUN...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE EITHER
A DRY FORECAST OR ONLY SLIGHTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS OFTEN IN THE 70S AND NO
BETTER THAN THE LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD OFTEN BE IN THE 50S OR LOWER
60S. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOME
HEIGHT RISES...THE OVERALL PATTERN /MORE POSITIVE PNA/ WILL
CHANGE LITTLE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING BUT THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH AS
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINE WITH A WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE STATE. THIS WILL CREATE AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY KDSM AND KOTM. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE COVERAGE...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED CATEGORICAL
FOR KDSM AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR QUICK HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH
WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS DUE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT UPDATE AT 18Z
SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE/MORE DETAILS ON DEGREE OF IMPACT FOR
SOUTHERN TAF SITES. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 261128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

RATHER COMPLEX FORECAST FOR TODAY AS CONFIDENCE OF EVOLUTION OF MESO
SCALE ONLY MODEST AT THIS TIME...BUT COULD BE AN RATHER ACTIVE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER THE SOUTH. AFTER EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON FOR ABOUT THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. EARLY THIS MORNING A SHORT WAVE OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AT H850 IS DRIVING WARM AIR AND RATHER HIGH MOISTURE
INTO IOWA AND SURROUNDING STATES. A LARGE POOL OF 15C DEW POINTS
EXTENDS FROM EASTERN KS... COVERING ALL OF IOWA AND NORTHERN MO AS
WELL AS EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI. CLOUDS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING AT
MID LEVELS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA IN RESPONSE TO THIS MOISTURE AND A
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/ZONE OF H850 30KT LLJ MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. SO
FAR THERE IS TOO MUCH CIN TO REALLY LET ANYTHING GO AT THIS TIME.
NORTHWEST OF US A PRONOUNCED H700 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY IN WY/MT WILL
SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST TODAY. AHEAD OF IT A WEAKER WAVE IS PRODUCING A
SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION OVER EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA ALONG A RATHER
MINOR TROUGH AT H850 THAT EXTENDS FROM SUPERIOR/DULUTH BACK
SOUTHWESTWARD TO HURON AND RAPID CITY. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THIS AREA
OF CONVECTION WILL WEAKEN AND CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AND IMPACT
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING PRIOR TO NOON.
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION THOUGH...IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
BY LATE MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING STRONGER H700 WAVE
AND H500 WESTERLIES INCREASING TO 50KTS BY 00Z AND H300 WINDS
NEARING 70 TO 85KTS BY 00Z OVER IOWA.

THIS MORNING A WEAK SFC LOW OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA WILL DRIFT SOUTHEAST
INTO NORTHERN MO DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A PRONOUNCED 2500 TO
3500 J/KG MLCAPE MAX WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIER COUNTIES BY
18Z...WITH HEATING INCREASING INSTABILITY TO 3500 J/KG NEAR DES
MOINES TO 5500 J/KG JUST SOUTH OF THE IA/MO BORDER.  HRRR MODEL
SUGGESTS THAT A SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING IN
NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA WHILE THE NMM/ARW SUGGEST THAT THE
CONVECTION OVER NEBRASKA WILL DISSIPATE AND REDEVLOP OVER FAR
SOUTHERN IA/MO.  HOPWRF ALSO SHOWS EASTERN NEBRASKA CONVECTION
CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY WITH TIME THIS AFTERNOON MOVING ESE. THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY THE MEAN AND FORWARD PROPAGATING CORFIDI VECTORS...WITH
TRANSLATION ABOUT 30 TO 40 KTS. WITH THE WEAK BOUNDARY OVER THE
IOWA/MISSOURI BORDER BY 00Z...ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS TO OUR
WEST WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY INTO THE AXIS OF HIGH CAPE THIS
AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE VARIOUS SOLUTIONS...AM LEANING TOWARD
CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN NORTHEAST/EAST NEBRASKA AND STRENGTHENING
RAPIDLY THIS AFTERNOON AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE POOL IN AND
NEAR IOWA TO THE SOUTH. HAVE INCREASED POP ACROSS THIS AREA TO
REFLECT THAT SCENARIO.  THE SOUTH IS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT
RISK...LOOKS VERY REASONABLE WITH THE POTENTIAL OF A STRENGTHENING
FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY LATER TODAY THROUGH EITHER SOUTHERN IOWA OR NORTHERN
MISSOURI.  THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER IMPACT CONVECTIVE
WINDS IF THE SYSTEM GETS STRONG ENOUGH PRIOR TO MOVING SOUTH/EAST OF
THE AREA THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES TO OVER TWO
INCHES SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTERNOON WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS
OF 13 TO 14KFT TODAY AS WELL. IN ANY STRONGER STORMS THAT DEVELOP...
A QUICK 1 TO +2 INCHES IS VERY POSSIBLE DESPITE THE PROJECTED FAST
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS. HIGHS WILL AGAIN BE WARM SOUTH IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWER TO MID 80S ACROSS THE NORTH. WINDS WILL
NOT BE APPRECIABLE STRONG AND GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

NEARLY ALL OF THE CONCERNS IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE EARLY ON...THIS
EVENING. THE AIRMASS WILL BE THERMODYNAMICALLY PRIMED DURING PEAK
HEATING WITH THE GFS/NAM SUGGESTING MLCAPES 4K J/KG OR GREATER AND
LITTLE CINH. ONLY QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER A TRIGGER MECHANISM WILL
BE IN PLACE AND THAT SEEMS TO BE LESS AND LESS OF A CONCERN
JUDGING FROM CURRENT UPSTREAM CONDITIONS. RAP OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS
AND WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOW SEVERAL SHORT WAVES/PV ANOMALIES
TOPPING THE SWRN CONUS RIDGE AND EMBEDDED IN THE SEASONALLY FAST
PACIFIC NW TO NRN PLAINS UPPER FLOW. THIS KINEMATIC FORCING IS
CURRENTLY DRIVING SMALL WRN KS AND SD CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS IN
AREAS OF WEAK THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT. THUS EXPECT REMNANTS OF THESE
FEATURES AND ASSOCIATED FORCING TO BE TRAVERSING SRN IA/NRN MO
DURING PEAK HEATING IN THE VICINITY OF CURRENT SURFACE
FRONT...NOTED ALONG SRN ONE/TWO TIERS OF IA COUNTIES PER 07Z
ANALYSIS. OPERATIONAL AND HI RES MODELS SUGGEST CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE INTO MO BY 00Z...BUT
EXISTING CONVECTION FROM EARLIER IN THE DAY MAY ALSO BE IN PLACE
JUST NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AS WELL AS MENTIONED IN SHORT TERM
DISCUSSION.  ALTHOUGH THE SHALLOW SHEAR IS WEAK...THE DEEP SHEAR
SHOULD BE IN THE 50KT RANGE SUGGESTING ANYTHING THAT DOES NEWLY DEVELOP
COULD BE SUPERCELLULAR INITIALLY. ALTHOUGH THE 0-1KM KINEMATICS
ARE WEAK...THE DEGREE OF DEEP AND 0-3KM INSTABILITY MAY KEEP A FEW
THERMODYNAMICALLY DOMINATE TORNADOES IN THE PICTURE AS WELL...IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND AND HAIL THREAT AS SYSTEM EVOLVES AND LIKELY
BECOMES MORE LINEAR. WHATEVER DOES OCCUR WILL EITHER MOVE OUT OF
OUR FORECAST AREA QUICKLY...OR STAY INTO NRN MO SO OUR WINDOW WILL
BE BRIEF WITH DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THERE IS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING OR WARM
ADVECTION RIGHT ON THROUGH THE EXTENDED...AND EITHER UNIFORM NW
SURFACE FLOW OR LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHOULD LEAD TO MINIMAL LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE. STEEP LAPSE RATES NEAR THE CORE OF THE CURRENT
SASKATCHEWAN AND EVENTUALLY WRN GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW MAY DEVELOP
SOME SHOWERS NE DURING PEAK HEATING SUN...BUT OTHERWISE HAVE EITHER
A DRY FORECAST OR ONLY SLIGHTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPS STILL LOOK BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS OFTEN IN THE 70S AND NO
BETTER THAN THE LOW 80S. LOWS SHOULD OFTEN BE IN THE 50S OR LOWER
60S. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY DIMINISH WITH SOME
HEIGHT RISES...THE OVERALL PATTERN /MORE POSITIVE PNA/ WILL
CHANGE LITTLE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH WRN CONUS RIDGE/ERN TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT SAT JUL 26 2014

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT 1 TO 2
HOURS. LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING BUT THE MAIN CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING SOUTH AS
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT COMBINE WITH A WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO
THE STATE. THIS WILL CREATE AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AFFECTING MAINLY KDSM AND KOTM. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE COVERAGE...SO HAVE NOT INCLUDED CATEGORICAL
FOR KDSM AT THIS TIME. POTENTIAL FOR QUICK HEAVY RAINS AND HIGH
WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER STORMS DUE TO HIGH INSTABILITY AND
PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS AREA THIS AFTERNOON. NEXT UPDATE AT 18Z
SHOULD HAVE BETTER CONFIDENCE/MORE DETAILS ON DEGREE OF IMPACT FOR
SOUTHERN TAF SITES. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV




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