000
FXUS63 KDMX 200505
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1205 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS EVENING WITH NOTHING OF NOTE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY AFTER DIURNAL LOSS OF CU. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
ELONGATED MN/IA/MO SHORT WAVE AXIS IS PRODUCING NOTHING BEYOND BKN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. RAP OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS DOES SHOW THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH THE MO VALLEY...BUT
MOISTURE MUST BE LIMITED FOR NOW AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WARM
ADVECTION DOES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO GRADUALLY RE-INTRODUCED POPS
WEST AND NORTH LATE IN CASE THIS THERMODYNAMIC FORCING EVENTUALLY
MATURES AND IS REALIZED.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 413 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE HI-RES MODELS FOR TRENDS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
THE ARW-WEST AND LATEST HRRR HAVE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAP SEEMS TO BE WINNING ATTM
AND CUT BACK ON POPS TO MAINLY THE FAR WEST EVEN THOUGH SURFACE
BASED CAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG WITH MUCAPE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE
IS VERY LITTLE...IF ANY SHEAR PRESENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS..SO
NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING LONG-LIVED. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION MOVES
INTO WESTERN IOWA PAST 06Z AS A BROAD AREA OF VORTICITY CUTS THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. TRANSITIONED CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT
AND MAINLY KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA PAST 06Z THURSDAY
WHERE BEST FORCING IS PRESENT.
.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 413 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY AND WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING OVER IOWA WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THIS TIME AS WELL AND WILL FOCUS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FLOW AND IMPACT MAINLY
NORTHERN IOWA AND AREAS TO THE NORTH DURING THE PERIOD WHILE WARM
AIR ALOFT DRIVES A CAP INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. WHILE THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE NORTH INTO MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY TO LIFT INTO WEST CENTRAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME MIXED LAYER CIN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL
COOLING THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW STORMS. IF STORMS
FIRE...CERTAINLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. STILL SOME
HINTS THAT A DAKOTAS MCS COULD DROP INTO NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH BECOMES CAPPED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AND HAVE BEGUN TO DROP POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BEING ACROSS THE NORTH. A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
70S. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CONTINUES TO EXERT ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BUILDING NORTH. THE RING
OF FIRE MAY CLIP INTO NORTHERN IOWA DURING END OF THE PERIOD BY
THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE TO THE NORTH WITH SUMMER IN PLACE OVER
IOWA.
&&
.AVIATION...20/06Z
ISSUED AT 1204 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2013
VFR CONDITIONS STATEWIDE AT 06Z WITH NOTHING MORE THAN SCT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS EAST. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAN MVFR VSBYS MAY
BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEFORE DAYBREAK...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THE
MOMENT WITH SELY WINDS NOT DECOUPLING. VARIOUS MODELS AND
ENSEMBLES SHOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IN LOCATION AND TIMING IS NOT THERE TO
INCLUDE YET. OPTED FOR NO MENTION RATHER THAN 18 HOUR VCSH BROAD
BRUSH.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL
000
FXUS63 KDMX 200237
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
937 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 937 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
HAVE LOWERED POPS THIS EVENING WITH NOTHING OF NOTE IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY AFTER DIURNAL LOSS OF CU. WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
ELONGATED MN/IA/MO SHORT WAVE AXIS IS PRODUCING NOTHING BEYOND BKN
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND EXITING THE FORECAST AREA. RAP OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS DOES SHOW THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH THE MO VALLEY...BUT
MOISTURE MUST BE LIMITED FOR NOW AS SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR. WARM
ADVECTION DOES CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SO GRADUALLY RE-INTRODUCED POPS
WEST AND NORTH LATE IN CASE THIS THERMODYNAMIC FORCING EVENTUALLY
MATURES AND IS REALIZED.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 413 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH SMALL CHANCES OF ISOLATED STORMS
ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE HI-RES MODELS FOR TRENDS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING.
THE ARW-WEST AND LATEST HRRR HAVE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAP SEEMS TO BE WINNING ATTM
AND CUT BACK ON POPS TO MAINLY THE FAR WEST EVEN THOUGH SURFACE
BASED CAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG WITH MUCAPE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE
IS VERY LITTLE...IF ANY SHEAR PRESENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS..SO
NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING LONG-LIVED. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION MOVES
INTO WESTERN IOWA PAST 06Z AS A BROAD AREA OF VORTICITY CUTS THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. TRANSITIONED CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT
AND MAINLY KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA PAST 06Z THURSDAY
WHERE BEST FORCING IS PRESENT.
.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 413 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY AND WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING OVER IOWA WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THIS TIME AS WELL AND WILL FOCUS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FLOW AND IMPACT MAINLY
NORTHERN IOWA AND AREAS TO THE NORTH DURING THE PERIOD WHILE WARM
AIR ALOFT DRIVES A CAP INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. WHILE THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE NORTH INTO MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY TO LIFT INTO WEST CENTRAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME MIXED LAYER CIN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL
COOLING THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW STORMS. IF STORMS
FIRE...CERTAINLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. STILL SOME
HINTS THAT A DAKOTAS MCS COULD DROP INTO NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH BECOMES CAPPED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AND HAVE BEGUN TO DROP POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BEING ACROSS THE NORTH. A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
70S. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CONTINUES TO EXERT ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BUILDING NORTH. THE RING
OF FIRE MAY CLIP INTO NORTHERN IOWA DURING END OF THE PERIOD BY
THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE TO THE NORTH WITH SUMMER IN PLACE OVER
IOWA.
&&
.AVIATION...20/00Z
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS STATEWIDE AT 00Z EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE PATCHES OF
BKN/OVC CU AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KFSD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF SITES. CLOUDS SHOULD SHOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL DISSIPATION INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO INCREASE FEEL SE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MVFR
FOG FROM DEVELOPING. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER BY MIDDAY AND
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION NORTH AND
WEST. VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED IN THE AFTERNOON AT KFOD/KDSM/KMCW FOR A START.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL
000
FXUS63 KDMX 192345
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 413 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH SMALL CHANCES
OF ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE HI-RES MODELS FOR
TRENDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE ARW-WEST AND LATEST HRRR HAVE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAP SEEMS TO BE WINNING ATTM
AND CUT BACK ON POPS TO MAINLY THE FAR WEST EVEN THOUGH SURFACE
BASED CAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG WITH MUCAPE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE
IS VERY LITTLE...IF ANY SHEAR PRESENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS..SO
NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING LONG-LIVED. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION MOVES
INTO WESTERN IOWA PAST 06Z AS A BROAD AREA OF VORTICITY CUTS THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. TRANSITIONED CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT
AND MAINLY KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA PAST 06Z THURSDAY
WHERE BEST FORCING IS PRESENT.
.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 413 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY AND WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING OVER IOWA WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THIS TIME AS WELL AND WILL FOCUS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FLOW AND IMPACT MAINLY
NORTHERN IOWA AND AREAS TO THE NORTH DURING THE PERIOD WHILE WARM
AIR ALOFT DRIVES A CAP INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. WHILE THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE NORTH INTO MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY TO LIFT INTO WEST CENTRAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME MIXED LAYER CIN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL
COOLING THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW STORMS. IF STORMS
FIRE...CERTAINLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. STILL SOME
HINTS THAT A DAKOTAS MCS COULD DROP INTO NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH BECOMES CAPPED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AND HAVE BEGUN TO DROP POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BEING ACROSS THE NORTH. A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
70S. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CONTINUES TO EXERT ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BUILDING NORTH. THE RING
OF FIRE MAY CLIP INTO NORTHERN IOWA DURING END OF THE PERIOD BY
THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE TO THE NORTH WITH SUMMER IN PLACE OVER
IOWA.
&&
.AVIATION...20/00Z
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS STATEWIDE AT 00Z EVEN THOUGH THERE ARE PATCHES OF
BKN/OVC CU AND MID/HIGH CLOUDS. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS NEAR KFSD
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AFFECT TAF SITES. CLOUDS SHOULD SHOW TYPICAL
DIURNAL DISSIPATION INTO THE EVENING. ALTHOUGH DEWPOINTS CONTINUE
TO INCREASE FEEL SE WINDS SHOULD STAY UP ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE MVFR
FOG FROM DEVELOPING. SE WINDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER BY MIDDAY AND
MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW BEST CHANCES OF CONVECTION NORTH AND
WEST. VCSH HAS BEEN ADDED IN THE AFTERNOON AT KFOD/KDSM/KMCW FOR A START.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL
000
FXUS63 KDMX 192114
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
414 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT /...
ISSUED AT 413 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
MAIN FORECAST CONCERN IS WITH SMALL CHANCES
OF ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. LEANED TOWARD A BLEND OF THE HI-RES MODELS FOR
TRENDS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING.
THE ARW-WEST AND LATEST HRRR HAVE SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. CAP SEEMS TO BE WINNING ATTM
AND CUT BACK ON POPS TO MAINLY THE FAR WEST EVEN THOUGH SURFACE
BASED CAPE AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG WITH MUCAPE SLIGHTLY HIGHER. THERE
IS VERY LITTLE...IF ANY SHEAR PRESENT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS..SO
NOT ANTICIPATING ANYTHING LONG-LIVED. WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION MOVES
INTO WESTERN IOWA PAST 06Z AS A BROAD AREA OF VORTICITY CUTS THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT. TRANSITIONED CHANCE POPS FURTHER EAST OVERNIGHT
AND MAINLY KEPT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA PAST 06Z THURSDAY
WHERE BEST FORCING IS PRESENT.
.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 413 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
TODAY AND WILL MOVE LITTLE THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
LIFT NORTHEAST INTO CANADA ON SUNDAY. WEAK RIDGING OVER IOWA WILL
SLOWLY SHIFT EAST DURING THIS TIME AS WELL AND WILL FOCUS
SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES ARE
STILL EXPECTED TO RIPPLE THROUGH THIS FLOW AND IMPACT MAINLY
NORTHERN IOWA AND AREAS TO THE NORTH DURING THE PERIOD WHILE WARM
AIR ALOFT DRIVES A CAP INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY.
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH KANSAS AND NEBRASKA
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SECONDARY WARM FRONT MOVING
NORTH THROUGH THE STATE. WHILE THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL
BE NORTH INTO MINNESOTA DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE SECONDARY BOUNDARY TO LIFT INTO WEST CENTRAL DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME MIXED LAYER CIN WILL BE IN PLACE THROUGH A WEAK
SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID LEVEL
COOLING THAT MAY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF A FEW STORMS. IF STORMS
FIRE...CERTAINLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WOULD BE POSSIBLE. STILL SOME
HINTS THAT A DAKOTAS MCS COULD DROP INTO NORTHERN IOWA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND COULD BRING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
MUCH OF THE AREA OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH BECOMES CAPPED FRIDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND AND HAVE BEGUN TO DROP POPS ACROSS THESE AREAS
WITH THE PRIMARY FOCUS BEING ACROSS THE NORTH. A VERY WARM AND
HUMID AIR MASS WILL LIFT INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE
70S. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CONTINUES TO EXERT ITSELF OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BUILDING NORTH. THE RING
OF FIRE MAY CLIP INTO NORTHERN IOWA DURING END OF THE PERIOD BY
THE PRIMARY FOCUS WILL BE TO THE NORTH WITH SUMMER IN PLACE OVER
IOWA.
&&
.AVIATION...19/18Z
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. LEFT MENTION OF
ANY THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM AS LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
INTRODUCED GUSTS INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
000
FXUS63 KDMX 191744
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1244 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST NOW WITH WAA BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO WRN IA. SAT PIX SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLODS FROM DECAYING
BLOWOFF CLOUDS. DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO SWRN IA
WILL BRING AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA THIS MORNING AS WAA ARC LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THE PRECIP TO THE WEST HALF HOWEVER.
COMBINATION OF NAMDNG5 AND HRRR GIVES A REASONABLE PRESENTATION OF
EXPECTED OUTCOME. TEMPS TODAY VERY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. FEEL
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS TO GET HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE MOS GUID AND
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR EXTENDED...WITH MANY PERIODS OF
POPS...AND SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...WITH BREAKS IN
PRECIP CHANCES FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRIVER FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LOW WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER
PAC NW...AND IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY PUSH INLAND ATTM. MODELS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES OVER PLACEMENT OF LOW...BUT SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS LOW PUSHES INLAND. RIDGE REMAINS OVER
IOWA THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH
SPARKING CONVECTION CHANCES.
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN SHORT WAVES PROPAGATION
EASTWARD...WITH FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL NE PUSHING INTO
IOWA LATE OVERNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE SLOWED POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF MAIN PRECIP
BAND WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING...WITH PRECIP
THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE SET TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND MAY FORM INTO MCS PUSHING ACROSS
IOWA...WITH NORTHERN IOWA MOST LIKELY LOCATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN SD/MN AND HEAVIEST PRECIP MAY
STAY NORTH. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN US. AS LOW PUSHES
EASTWARD...TRACKS OF WAVES WILL LIKELY GO NORTH OF CWA...BUT MAY
SEE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH...AND HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE PUSHES THROUGH FLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND SURFACE
LOW IN WESTERN PLAINS WILL ALSO LIFT NE AT THIS TIME...AND TIMING
AND LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND IS VERY
MUDDLED. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
IOWA WITH PROLONGED PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH
SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP WITH WAA FOR
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH SUMMER LIKE READINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...19/18Z
ISSUED AT 1239 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
VFR CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
WEAK THETA-E ADVECTION DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND MAY SPAWN SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION. LEFT MENTION OF
ANY THUNDER OUT OF THE TAFS ATTM AS LOW CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND
INTRODUCED GUSTS INTO THE 20-25 KNOT RANGE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS JUN 13
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
000
FXUS63 KDMX 191138
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
638 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST NOW WITH WAA BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO WRN IA. SAT PIX SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLODS FROM DECAYING
BLOWOFF CLOUDS. DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO SWRN IA
WILL BRING AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA THIS MORNING AS WAA ARC LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THE PRECIP TO THE WEST HALF HOWEVER.
COMBINATION OF NAMDNG5 AND HRRR GIVES A REASONABLE PRESENTATION OF
EXPECTED OUTCOME. TEMPS TODAY VERY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. FEEL
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS TO GET HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE MOS GUID AND
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR EXTENDED...WITH MANY PERIODS OF
POPS...AND SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...WITH BREAKS IN
PRECIP CHANCES FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRIVER FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LOW WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER
PAC NW...AND IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY PUSH INLAND ATTM. MODELS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES OVER PLACEMENT OF LOW...BUT SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS LOW PUSHES INLAND. RIDGE REMAINS OVER
IOWA THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH
SPARKING CONVECTION CHANCES.
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN SHORT WAVES PROPAGATION
EASTWARD...WITH FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL NE PUSHING INTO
IOWA LATE OVERNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE SLOWED POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF MAIN PRECIP
BAND WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING...WITH PRECIP
THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE SET TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND MAY FORM INTO MCS PUSHING ACROSS
IOWA...WITH NORTHERN IOWA MOST LIKELY LOCATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN SD/MN AND HEAVIEST PRECIP MAY
STAY NORTH. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN US. AS LOW PUSHES
EASTWARD...TRACKS OF WAVES WILL LIKELY GO NORTH OF CWA...BUT MAY
SEE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH...AND HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE PUSHES THROUGH FLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND SURFACE
LOW IN WESTERN PLAINS WILL ALSO LIFT NE AT THIS TIME...AND TIMING
AND LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND IS VERY
MUDDLED. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
IOWA WITH PROLONGED PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH
SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP WITH WAA FOR
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH SUMMER LIKE READINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...19/12Z
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
A SELY FLOW OF WILL BRING MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE STATE AND RESULT
IN ISOLATED SHRA OVER THE WRN TAF SITES THIS MORNING. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL HOLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CIGS. TSRA WILL MOVE INTO WRN A TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME
THINKING IS THAT THE TSRA WILL REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE TAF SITES
WITH ONLY A SMALL CHANCE OF THEM REACHING KFOD AND KDSM BY 12Z.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS JUN 13
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...MS JUN 13
000
FXUS63 KDMX 190846
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
346 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING OFF TO THE EAST NOW WITH WAA BEGINNING TO
MOVE INTO WRN IA. SAT PIX SHOW AN INCREASE IN CLODS FROM DECAYING
BLOWOFF CLOUDS. DEEPER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE MOVING INTO SWRN IA
WILL BRING AT LEAST ISOLATED TSRA THIS MORNING AS WAA ARC LIFTS
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. KEPT THE PRECIP TO THE WEST HALF HOWEVER.
COMBINATION OF NAMDNG5 AND HRRR GIVES A REASONABLE PRESENTATION OF
EXPECTED OUTCOME. TEMPS TODAY VERY DEPENDENT ON CLOUD COVER. FEEL
THERE WILL BE ENOUGH BREAKS TO GET HIGHS A LITTLE ABOVE MOS GUID AND
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY IN MOST LOCATIONS.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 339 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
COMPLICATED FORECAST FOR EXTENDED...WITH MANY PERIODS OF
POPS...AND SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...WITH BREAKS IN
PRECIP CHANCES FROM TIME TO TIME THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BE DRIVER FOR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. LOW WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY OVER
PAC NW...AND IS BEGINNING TO SLOWLY PUSH INLAND ATTM. MODELS HAVE
SIGNIFICANT DISCREPANCIES OVER PLACEMENT OF LOW...BUT SHOULD COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AS LOW PUSHES INLAND. RIDGE REMAINS OVER
IOWA THROUGH MUCH OF PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVES PUSHING THROUGH
SPARKING CONVECTION CHANCES.
MODELS HAVE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED DOWN SHORT WAVES PROPAGATION
EASTWARD...WITH FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN CENTRAL NE PUSHING INTO
IOWA LATE OVERNIGHT. HAVE THEREFORE SLOWED POPS FOR
OVERNIGHT...THOUGH COULD SEE SOME DEVELOPMENT AHEAD OF MAIN PRECIP
BAND WITH THETA-E ADVECTION. SYSTEM IS SLOW MOVING...WITH PRECIP
THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG SHORTWAVE SET TO TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...AND MAY FORM INTO MCS PUSHING ACROSS
IOWA...WITH NORTHERN IOWA MOST LIKELY LOCATION OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SYSTEM. SHORTWAVE
EXPECTED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN SD/MN AND HEAVIEST PRECIP MAY
STAY NORTH. NUMEROUS SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO TRACK EAST AS UPPER
LEVEL LOW REMAINS ACROSS NORTHWESTERN US. AS LOW PUSHES
EASTWARD...TRACKS OF WAVES WILL LIKELY GO NORTH OF CWA...BUT MAY
SEE DEVELOPMENT FURTHER SOUTH...AND HAVE KEPT POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH. SOMEWHAT STRONGER WAVE PUSHES THROUGH FLOW FOR THE
WEEKEND...THOUGH UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD AND SURFACE
LOW IN WESTERN PLAINS WILL ALSO LIFT NE AT THIS TIME...AND TIMING
AND LOCATION FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND IS VERY
MUDDLED. AS UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHES EAST FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS
IOWA WITH PROLONGED PRECIPITATION CHANCE FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH
SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW. HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP WITH WAA FOR
EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THOUGH MIXING MAY BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED.
OVERALL...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WITH SUMMER LIKE READINGS.
&&
.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK.
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY A BIT LOWER/HIGHER RESPECTIVELY
FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY SO THERE IS THAT POTENTIAL WITH LIGHT E/SE
WIND. HAVE ADDED MENTION IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS WHICH
ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH ENDS UP TO BE EVERYWHERE
OUTSIDE OF KDSM.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SMALL
000
FXUS63 KDMX 190511
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1211 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA...DENOTED BY WIND SHIFT
FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST/EAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE
REGION EARLIER TODAY. SEEING A FEW RADAR ECHOES GO UP NEAR THE
BOUNDARY IN AREA OF ENHANCED CU OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING DECENT CAPE AND SOME SHEAR ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THEREFORE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A COUPLE
ISOLATED CELLS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
ANY ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF WITH SUNSET AND THE CURRENT CU FIELD TO
CLEAR AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS THE AREA TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT. THETA-E ADVECTION BEGINS
ALOFT IN SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW TOWARD 09-12Z. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TOWARD
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE PUSH NOT ALL THAT STRONG...SO STUCK WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A DRY FORECAST. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT
FOG DEVELOP WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...BUT VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE SO
DID NOT MENTION FOG IN THE GRIDS.
.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE OVER THE MIDWEST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW CHURNS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
OVER TOP THE RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTH INTO CANADA AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH
INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES OVER
WESTERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ARRIVES THURSDAY AS THE THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUES AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES MORE FOCUSED INTO WESTERN IOWA. SOME
SEVERE WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY EACH SYSTEM THROUGH A BETTER CHANCE
APPEARS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA THEN FOLLOW
THE CORFIDI VECTORS DOWN THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND DROP SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA.
THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH UNTIL SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AND SHOULD BE IN THE THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE
THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE 700 MB CAP OF +12C TO +16C ARRIVING. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 90S. HAVE NOT GONE QUITE THIS HIGH YET BUT HAVE
TRENDED WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1209 AM CDT WED JUN 19 2013
VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY WED MORNING.
THE ONLY CONCERN IS WHETHER MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK.
TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS ARE GENERALLY A BIT LOWER/HIGHER RESPECTIVELY
FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY SO THERE IS THAT POTENTIAL WITH LIGHT E/SE
WIND. HAVE ADDED MENTION IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS WHICH
ARE ALSO SUPPORTED BY MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH ENDS UP TO BE EVERYWHERE
OUTSIDE OF KDSM.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL
000
FXUS63 KDMX 182341
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
641 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA...DENOTED BY WIND SHIFT
FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST/EAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE
REGION EARLIER TODAY. SEEING A FEW RADAR ECHOES GO UP NEAR THE
BOUNDARY IN AREA OF ENHANCED CU OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING DECENT CAPE AND SOME SHEAR ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THEREFORE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A COUPLE
ISOLATED CELLS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
ANY ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF WITH SUNSET AND THE CURRENT CU FIELD TO
CLEAR AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS THE AREA TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT. THETA-E ADVECTION BEGINS
ALOFT IN SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW TOWARD 09-12Z. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TOWARD
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE PUSH NOT ALL THAT STRONG...SO STUCK WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A DRY FORECAST. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT
FOG DEVELOP WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...BUT VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE SO
DID NOT MENTION FOG IN THE GRIDS.
.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE OVER THE MIDWEST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW CHURNS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
OVER TOP THE RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTH INTO CANADA AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH
INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES OVER
WESTERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ARRIVES THURSDAY AS THE THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUES AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES MORE FOCUSED INTO WESTERN IOWA. SOME
SEVERE WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY EACH SYSTEM THROUGH A BETTER CHANCE
APPEARS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA THEN FOLLOW
THE CORFIDI VECTORS DOWN THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND DROP SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA.
THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH UNTIL SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AND SHOULD BE IN THE THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE
THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE 700 MB CAP OF +12C TO +16C ARRIVING. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 90S. HAVE NOT GONE QUITE THIS HIGH YET BUT HAVE
TRENDED WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...19/00Z
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
VFR CU CONTINUES TO LIFT AND DISSIPATE AND THAT SHOULD BE THE
TREND THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. ONLY CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE WHETHER MVFR FOG COULD DEVELOP EARLY WED MORNING. TEMPS
AND DEWPOINTS ARE A BIT LOWER/HIGHER RESPECTIVELY FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY SO THERE IS THAT POTENTIAL WITH LIGHT SE WIND. HAVE ADDED
MENTION IN CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS WHICH ARE ALSO
SUPPORTED BY MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH ENDS UP TO BE EVERYWHERE
OUTSIDE OF KDSM.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL
000
FXUS63 KDMX 182113
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
413 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT /...
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA...DENOTED BY WIND SHIFT
FROM NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST/EAST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. THIS WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING THROUGH THE
REGION EARLIER TODAY. SEEING A FEW RADAR ECHOES GO UP NEAR THE
BOUNDARY IN AREA OF ENHANCED CU OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTING DECENT CAPE AND SOME SHEAR ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THEREFORE MAY CONTINUE TO SEE A COUPLE
ISOLATED CELLS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EXPECT
ANY ACTIVITY TO DIE OFF WITH SUNSET AND THE CURRENT CU FIELD TO
CLEAR AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE SKIRTS THE AREA TO THE EAST. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGING WILL BUILD IN ALOFT FROM THE WEST...WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING
UP ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA LATE TONIGHT. THETA-E ADVECTION BEGINS
ALOFT IN SOUTHWEST/WESTERLY FLOW TOWARD 09-12Z. THIS MAY RESULT IN
SOME MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA TOWARD
SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE PUSH NOT ALL THAT STRONG...SO STUCK WITH
INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND A DRY FORECAST. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT
FOG DEVELOP WITH THE CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN
CWA...BUT VISIBILITIES EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE 3-5 MILE RANGE SO
DID NOT MENTION FOG IN THE GRIDS.
.LONG TERM.../WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 410 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE OVER THE MIDWEST THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS AS AN UPPER LOW CHURNS OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
NUMEROUS SHORT WAVES WILL RIPPLE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
OVER TOP THE RIDGE INTO THE WEEKEND BEFORE THE UPPER LOW LIFTS
NORTH INTO CANADA AND A SUBTROPICAL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD NORTH
INTO THE NATIONS MID SECTION. THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE ARRIVES OVER
WESTERN IOWA BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ACCOMPANIED BY INCREASING
THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE OVERNIGHT. A BETTER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION ARRIVES THURSDAY AS THE THETA-E ADVECTION CONTINUES AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES MORE FOCUSED INTO WESTERN IOWA. SOME
SEVERE WEATHER MAY ACCOMPANY EACH SYSTEM THROUGH A BETTER CHANCE
APPEARS LATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. MODELS SUGGESTING THE
POTENTIAL FOR A COMPLEX TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH DAKOTA THEN FOLLOW
THE CORFIDI VECTORS DOWN THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND DROP SOUTH INTO
THE FORECAST AREA.
THE PATTERN DOES NOT CHANGE MUCH UNTIL SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL
GRADUALLY WARM AND SHOULD BE IN THE THE MID 80S TO LOWER 90S. THE
THERMAL RIDGE BEGINS TO ARRIVE TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
THE 700 MB CAP OF +12C TO +16C ARRIVING. THIS WOULD LEAD TO HIGHS
WELL INTO THE 90S. HAVE NOT GONE QUITE THIS HIGH YET BUT HAVE
TRENDED WARMER.
&&
.AVIATION...18/18Z
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
POSSIBILITY FOR VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR IN SOME LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY AROUND THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA NEAR KMCW...KALO...AND KOTM.
HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXITING
THE AREA...THIS LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ALOFT LATE TONIGHT. THEREFORE
EXPECT SOME LOW/MID VFR CIGS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
WESTERN TAF SITES.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BEERENDS
000
FXUS63 KDMX 181750
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1250 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO REFINE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO A SLIVER OF
LIKELIES GIVEN THE COVERAGE OF LINGERING ACTIVITY...AND REDUCED
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD THAT THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL SKIRT
BY THE CWA JUST TO THE EAST. SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WATERLOO/MASON CITY
AREA. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...HOWEVER MAIN FORCING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD CHANCES.
ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST IN
VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
COMBINATION OF INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IL INTO SWRN
MN INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...COMBINED WITH RATHER STRONG S/WV
ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO SRN MN AND SPEED MAX MOVING INTO NWRN IA HAS
RESULTED IN VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST MN...ALBEIT ONE MAIN
CELL. THOUGH PARAMETERS ARE WEAK...BEING ISOLATED IT HAS BEEN ABLE
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS S/WV ROTATES THROUGH TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE IS IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE S/WV PASSES THE AREA. FEEL THE
NAMDNG5/ECMWF AND TO A DECENT AMOUNT THE GFS HAS A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AREA. INITIALLY DISCOUNTED THE NAM12/HRRR
AND SOME OF THE OTHER HIRES MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN
IA...HOWEVER SOME DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE SPEED MAX PUTTING SWRN IA IN THE RIGHT INFLOW REGION.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH INCREASE
CLOUDS AND AND SOME CAA AT H8. GENERALLY MID 70S TO AROUND 80...A
FEW DEGREES WARMER IN HEAT ISLAND AREAS.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS RIDGE WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING IS STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN...WITH MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF WAVE.
HAVE KEPT TIMING NEAR GOING. MODELS DO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH SOLUTION...WITH BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND HAVE BEGUN TO TREND POPS THAT WAY FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CAPE VALUES
1000-2000 J/KG INDICATED...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAP. WEAK CAP
MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF CONVECTION WITH LITTLE FORCING. HAIL/WIND
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM STEADILY THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH
PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING EAST ACROSS CANADA WILL DROP A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE
SPED UP TIMING A BIT ON THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE THERE FORE CUT BACK
ON POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR LATE FRIDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH ONSHORE IN PAC NW FOR END OF WEEK
WILL INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS IOWA FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. AS THIS IS STILL OFF THE SHORE AND POORLY SAMPLED...DO
NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...THOUGH MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. AS LOW DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES...RIDGE LIFTS ACROSS
IOWA...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH RIDGE.
HOWEVER...TIMING/LOCATION AGAIN PROBLEMATIC. LATEST MODEL RUNS
KEEP TRACKS WEST AND NORTH OF IOWA...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THIS
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND KEEPING POPS OUT OF THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...18/18Z
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH
POSSIBILITY FOR VSBYS TO DROP TO MVFR IN SOME LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT. SOME INSTABILITY AROUND THIS AFTERNOON SUGGESTING
POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TSRA NEAR KMCW...KALO...AND KOTM.
HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS EXITING
THE AREA...THIS LEFT OUT ANY MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE TAFS AT
THIS TIME. WINDS TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ALOFT LATE TONIGHT. THEREFORE
EXPECT SOME LOW/MID VFR CIGS BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
WESTERN TAF SITES.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...MS JUN 13
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...BEERENDS
000
FXUS63 KDMX 181445
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
945 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 945 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
HAVE SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO REFINE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND
SOUTHWEST. HAVE INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST TO A SLIVER OF
LIKELIES GIVEN THE COVERAGE OF LINGERING ACTIVITY...AND REDUCED
POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO SLIGHT CHANCE GIVEN THE SMALL AREAL
COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD THAT THE MAJORITY OF ACTIVITY WILL SKIRT
BY THE CWA JUST TO THE EAST. SOUNDINGS STILL INDICATE SOME
INSTABILITY BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS IN THE WATERLOO/MASON CITY
AREA. THEREFORE HAVE LEFT A SMALL AREA OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS...HOWEVER MAIN FORCING WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE SO DO NOT EXPECT WIDESPREAD CHANCES.
ALSO LOWERED MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST IN
VICINITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS/CLOUD COVER...OTHERWISE REMAINDER OF
FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK.
&&
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
COMBINATION OF INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IL INTO SWRN
MN INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...COMBINED WITH RATHER STRONG S/WV
ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO SRN MN AND SPEED MAX MOVING INTO NWRN IA HAS
RESULTED IN VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST MN...ALBEIT ONE MAIN
CELL. THOUGH PARAMETERS ARE WEAK...BEING ISOLATED IT HAS BEEN ABLE
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS S/WV ROTATES THROUGH TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE IS IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE S/WV PASSES THE AREA. FEEL THE
NAMDNG5/ECMWF AND TO A DECENT AMOUNT THE GFS HAS A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AREA. INITIALLY DISCOUNTED THE NAM12/HRRR
AND SOME OF THE OTHER HIRES MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN
IA...HOWEVER SOME DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE SPEED MAX PUTTING SWRN IA IN THE RIGHT INFLOW REGION.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH INCREASE
CLOUDS AND AND SOME CAA AT H8. GENERALLY MID 70S TO AROUND 80...A
FEW DEGREES WARMER IN HEAT ISLAND AREAS.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS RIDGE WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING IS STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN...WITH MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF WAVE.
HAVE KEPT TIMING NEAR GOING. MODELS DO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH SOLUTION...WITH BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND HAVE BEGUN TO TREND POPS THAT WAY FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CAPE VALUES
1000-2000 J/KG INDICATED...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAP. WEAK CAP
MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF CONVECTION WITH LITTLE FORCING. HAIL/WIND
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM STEADILY THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH
PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING EAST ACROSS CANADA WILL DROP A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE
SPED UP TIMING A BIT ON THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE THERE FORE CUT BACK
ON POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR LATE FRIDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH ONSHORE IN PAC NW FOR END OF WEEK
WILL INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS IOWA FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. AS THIS IS STILL OFF THE SHORE AND POORLY SAMPLED...DO
NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...THOUGH MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. AS LOW DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES...RIDGE LIFTS ACROSS
IOWA...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH RIDGE.
HOWEVER...TIMING/LOCATION AGAIN PROBLEMATIC. LATEST MODEL RUNS
KEEP TRACKS WEST AND NORTH OF IOWA...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THIS
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND KEEPING POPS OUT OF THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...18/12Z
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
CDFNT NEAR A KFSD-KBNW-KBRL LINE WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST TODAY. SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL BRUSH THE NERN COUNTIES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA
OVER THE SWRN PART OF IA WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE SRN TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NE-ELY. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN BR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z ON WED.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...MS JUN 13
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...MS JUN 13
000
FXUS63 KDMX 181143
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
COMBINATION OF INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IL INTO SWRN
MN INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...COMBINED WITH RATHER STRONG S/WV
ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO SRN MN AND SPEED MAX MOVING INTO NWRN IA HAS
RESULTED IN VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST MN...ALBEIT ONE MAIN
CELL. THOUGH PARAMETERS ARE WEAK...BEING ISOLATED IT HAS BEEN ABLE
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS S/WV ROTATES THROUGH TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE IS IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE S/WV PASSES THE AREA. FEEL THE
NAMDNG5/ECMEF AND TO A DECENT AMOUNT THE GFS HAS A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AREA. INITIALLY DISCOUNTED THE NAM12/HRRR
AND SOME OF THE OTHER HIRES MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN
IA...HOWEVER SOME DEVELOPMENT HAS OCCURRED IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSAGE OF THE SPEED MAX PUTTING SWRN IA IN THE RIGHT INFLOW REGION.
TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH INCREASE
CLOUDS AND AND SOME CAA AT H8. GENERALLY MID 70S TO AROUND 80...A
FEW DEGREES WARMER IN HEAT ISLAND AREAS.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS RIDGE WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING IS STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN...WITH MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF WAVE.
HAVE KEPT TIMING NEAR GOING. MODELS DO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH SOLUTION...WITH BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND HAVE BEGUN TO TREND POPS THAT WAY FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CAPE VALUES
1000-2000 J/KG INDICATED...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAP. WEAK CAP
MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF CONVECTION WITH LITTLE FORCING. HAIL/WIND
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM STEADILY THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH
PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING EAST ACROSS CANADA WILL DROP A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE
SPED UP TIMING A BIT ON THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE THERE FORE CUT BACK
ON POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR LATE FRIDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH ONSHORE IN PAC NW FOR END OF WEEK
WILL INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS IOWA FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. AS THIS IS STILL OFF THE SHORE AND POORLY SAMPLED...DO
NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...THOUGH MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. AS LOW DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES...RIDGE LIFTS ACROSS
IOWA...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH RIDGE.
HOWEVER...TIMING/LOCATION AGAIN PROBLEMATIC. LATEST MODEL RUNS
KEEP TRACKS WEST AND NORTH OF IOWA...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THIS
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND KEEPING POPS OUT OF THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...18/12Z
ISSUED AT 637 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
CDFNT NEAR A KFSD-KBNW-KBRL LINE WILL PUSH SOUTHWEST TODAY. SCT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSRA WILL BRUSH THE NERN COUNTIES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THIS MORNING. AREA OF SHRA AND TSRA
OVER THE SWRN PART OF IA WILL REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE SRN TAF
SITES. VFR CONDITIONS TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT NE-ELY. MVFR
CONDITIONS IN BR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 09Z ON WED.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS JUN 13
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...MS JUN 13
000
FXUS63 KDMX 180829
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
329 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
COMBINATION OF INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL IL INTO SWRN
MN INTO THE RED RIVER VALLEY...COMBINED WITH RATHER STRONG S/WV
ROTATING SOUTHEAST INTO SRN MN AND SPEED MAX MOVING INTO NWRN IA HAS
RESULTED IN VIGOROUS CONVECTION IN SOUTHWEST MN...ALBEIT ONE MAIN
CELL. THOUGH PARAMETERS ARE WEAK...BEING ISOLATED IT HAS BEEN ABLE
TO MAINTAIN ITSELF. EXPECT TO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOP IN
THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS S/WV ROTATES THROUGH TODAY. THE BEST
CHANCE IS IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE S/WV PASSES THE AREA. FEEL THE
NAMDNG5/ECMEF AND TO A DECENT AMOUNT THE GFS HAS A PRETTY GOOD
HANDLE ON THE PRECIP AREA AND HAVE DISCOUNTED THE NAM12/HRRR AND SOME
OF THE OTHER HIRES MODELS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OVER WRN IA. TEMPS
TODAY WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY WITH INCREASE CLOUDS
AND AND SOME CAA AT H8. GENERALLY MID 70S TO AROUND 80...A FEW
DEGREES WARMER IN HEAT ISLAND AREAS.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WEAK RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS FOR THE
BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS RIDGE WILL
BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER TIMING IS STILL
A BIT UNCERTAIN...WITH MODELS IN POOR AGREEMENT ON TIMING OF WAVE.
HAVE KEPT TIMING NEAR GOING. MODELS DO INDICATE A SLIGHTLY FURTHER
SOUTH SOLUTION...WITH BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI...AND HAVE BEGUN TO TREND POPS THAT WAY FOR
LATE WEDNESDAY AND EARLY THURSDAY. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH CAPE VALUES
1000-2000 J/KG INDICATED...AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAP. WEAK CAP
MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF CONVECTION WITH LITTLE FORCING. HAIL/WIND
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS FROM ANY SEVERE STORMS. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM STEADILY THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER THE RIDGE...WITH
PRIMARILY SOUTHERLY FLOW AT THE SURFACE.
UPPER LEVEL LOW PUSHING EAST ACROSS CANADA WILL DROP A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN PLAINS FOR THURSDAY/FRIDAY. MODELS HAVE
SPED UP TIMING A BIT ON THIS SYSTEM...AND HAVE THERE FORE CUT BACK
ON POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH FOR LATE FRIDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH ONSHORE IN PAC NW FOR END OF WEEK
WILL INFLUENCE WEATHER ACROSS IOWA FOR MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD. AS THIS IS STILL OFF THE SHORE AND POORLY SAMPLED...DO
NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TIMING...THOUGH MODELS ARE IN DECENT
AGREEMENT. AS LOW DIGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES...RIDGE LIFTS ACROSS
IOWA...WITH SHORTWAVES LIFTING THROUGH RIDGE.
HOWEVER...TIMING/LOCATION AGAIN PROBLEMATIC. LATEST MODEL RUNS
KEEP TRACKS WEST AND NORTH OF IOWA...AND HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS THIS
SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND KEEPING POPS OUT OF THE SOUTH.
&&
.AVIATION...18/06Z
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WEAK BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST. A
FEW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS AT THIS TIME...WITH AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL MN WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS FROM 11-16Z. SOME QUESTION AS
TO IF ANY INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOWARD MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT COLD POOL ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME ISO
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING
AND COVERAGE REMAINS LOW...SO WILL INCLUDE VCSH WORDING AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST
AND RETURN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW TAKES OVER FROM 18/23 TO 19/02Z FROM
WEST TO EAST.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...REV
000
FXUS63 KDMX 180503
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1203 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT /...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
CONCERNS TONIGHT INCLUDE PRECIP TRENDS SOUTH EARLY...AND NE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A
SW-NE BOUNDARY BETWEEN LAMONI AND OSCEOLA OVER THE PAST HOUR BUT
HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. THIS APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN MORE BY A THETA-E
GRADIENT THAN SPEED CONVERGENCE. RAP2 MLCAPES SHOW AROUND 1500 J/KG
UNCAPPED MLCAPES...BUT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN PULSY ISOLATED CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING SO HAVE NOTHING BUT THAT WORDING SOUTH INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.
NEXT CONCERN WOULD BE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN WEAKLY
UNSTABLE BUT UNCAPPED AIRMASS. FEEL POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN WEAK
KINEMATIC FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE. THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOOKING AT 300/305K ISENT SURFACES.
THUS HAVE NOTHING MORE THAN TOKEN SLIGHT POPS FAR NE.
THERE IS ALSO A LESSER CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING FAR SE WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 60S. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK BUT
STEADY NW WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS SUFFICIENTLY TO
PRECLUDE SUBSTANTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
OVERALL LONG TERM MUDDLED WITH MANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
TIMING OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY HARD TO NAIL DOWN...THUS LIMITING
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. INITIALLY
HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE CWA. SOUNDINGS INDICATING EAST/NORTHEASTERN AREA
UNCAPPED BY THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE KEPT SOME LINGERING CHANCES
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...AND CHANCES CONFINED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WITH THE
UNCAPPED REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. FORCING SOMEWHAT SCANT TOWARD
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THUS KEPT THE POPS LOW. AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS THE CWA MOVING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS WESTERN IOWA...WITH PUSH OF THETA-E NOSE INTO THE CWA
TOWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STRONGER WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO HAVE SPREAD POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL US AND SHIFTS A BIT
EASTWARD WITH THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CWA. COULD SEE SOME
CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE WAA AND WEAK
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH ALOFT. HOWEVER AS THE CAP BUILDS INTO THE CWA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT AND H7 TEMPS
INTO THE +13C RANGE...ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE
NORTH/EASTERN CWA. WILL SEE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY
EXPECTED AT NIGHT WITH MCS ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TOWARD THE HIGH CHANCE WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS IN. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH CAPPING EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...18/06Z
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013
WEAK BOUNDARY OVER SOUTHERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEAST. A
FEW CLOUDS REMAIN OVER CENTRAL SECTIONS AT THIS TIME...WITH AN AREA
OF THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN NEBRASKA MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL MN WILL DROP SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND
SHOULD INCREASE SHOWER CHANCES WITH MID LEVEL CLOUDS TOWARD MORNING
ACROSS NORTHERN AND NORTHEAST SECTIONS FROM 11-16Z. SOME QUESTION AS
TO IF ANY INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOWARD MORNING. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST THAT COLD POOL ALOFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN SOME ISO
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEAST. FOR NOW...CONFIDENCE REGARDING TIMING
AND COVERAGE REMAINS LOW...SO WILL INCLUDE VCSH WORDING AT THIS
TIME. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE PERIOD AS HIGH SHIFTS EAST
AND RETURN EAST SOUTHEAST FLOW TAKES OVER FROM 18/23 TO 19/02Z FROM
WEST TO EAST.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
000
FXUS63 KDMX 172343
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT /...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
CONCERNS TONIGHT INCLUDE PRECIP TRENDS SOUTH EARLY...AND NE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A
SW-NE BOUNDARY BETWEEN LAMONI AND OSCEOLA OVER THE PAST HOUR BUT
HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. THIS APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN MORE BY A THETA-E
GRADIENT THAN SPEED CONVERGENCE. RAP2 MLCAPES SHOW AROUND 1500 J/KG
UNCAPPED MLCAPES...BUT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN PULSY ISOLATED CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING SO HAVE NOTHING BUT THAT WORDING SOUTH INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.
NEXT CONCERN WOULD BE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN WEAKLY
UNSTABLE BUT UNCAPPED AIRMASS. FEEL POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN WEAK
KINEMATIC FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE. THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOOKING AT 300/305K ISENT SURFACES.
THUS HAVE NOTHING MORE THAN TOKEN SLIGHT POPS FAR NE.
THERE IS ALSO A LESSER CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING FAR SE WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 60S. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK BUT
STEADY NW WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS SUFFICIENTLY TO
PRECLUDE SUBSTANTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
OVERALL LONG TERM MUDDLED WITH MANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
TIMING OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY HARD TO NAIL DOWN...THUS LIMITING
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. INITIALLY
HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE CWA. SOUNDINGS INDICATING EAST/NORTHEASTERN AREA
UNCAPPED BY THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE KEPT SOME LINGERING CHANCES
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...AND CHANCES CONFINED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WITH THE
UNCAPPED REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. FORCING SOMEWHAT SCANT TOWARD
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THUS KEPT THE POPS LOW. AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS THE CWA MOVING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS WESTERN IOWA...WITH PUSH OF THETA-E NOSE INTO THE CWA
TOWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STRONGER WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO HAVE SPREAD POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL US AND SHIFTS A BIT
EASTWARD WITH THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CWA. COULD SEE SOME
CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE WAA AND WEAK
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH ALOFT. HOWEVER AS THE CAP BUILDS INTO THE CWA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT AND H7 TEMPS
INTO THE +13C RANGE...ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE
NORTH/EASTERN CWA. WILL SEE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY
EXPECTED AT NIGHT WITH MCS ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TOWARD THE HIGH CHANCE WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS IN. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH CAPPING EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...18/00Z
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
FOCUS THIS EVENING WILL BE ON BRIEF PERIOD OF WINDS ABOVE 12KT
WHICH SHOULD RELAX AFT 01Z. IN THE SOUTHEAST THERE IS A STILL VERY
SLIM CHANCE OF AN ISO RAIN SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...BUT CONFIDENCE
LOW THAT KOTM WILL BE AFFECTED SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF FCST.
OTHERWISE OVN THERE WILL BE SOME BKN250 AND INCREASING CLOUDS
TOWARD 12Z AS NEXT UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE BRINGS MAINLY VFR CEILINGS
INTO THE REGION FROM 12-18Z TUESDAY. THOUGH SHOWER CHANCES REMAIN
LOW NORTHEAST AFT 12Z TUES...WILL EVALUATE AGAIN FOR 06Z PACKAGE.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
000
FXUS63 KDMX 172040
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT /...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
CONCERNS TONIGHT INCLUDE PRECIP TRENDS SOUTH EARLY...AND NE
OVERNIGHT. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG A
SW-NE BOUNDARY BETWEEN LAMONI AND OSCEOLA OVER THE PAST HOUR BUT
HAVE SINCE DISSIPATED. THIS APPEARED TO BE DRIVEN MORE BY A THETA-E
GRADIENT THAN SPEED CONVERGENCE. RAP2 MLCAPES SHOW AROUND 1500 J/KG
UNCAPPED MLCAPES...BUT AFOREMENTIONED WEAK CONVERGENCE WILL LIKELY
PRECLUDE ANYTHING MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN PULSY ISOLATED CONVECTION
FROM DEVELOPING SO HAVE NOTHING BUT THAT WORDING SOUTH INTO THE
EARLY EVENING.
NEXT CONCERN WOULD BE SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY OVER ND. SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE IN WEAKLY
UNSTABLE BUT UNCAPPED AIRMASS. FEEL POTENTIAL WITH THIS FEATURE
WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION WITH NOTHING MORE THAN WEAK
KINEMATIC FORCING AND LIMITED MOISTURE. THERE IS LITTLE EVIDENCE OF
THERMODYNAMIC SUPPORT OVERNIGHT LOOKING AT 300/305K ISENT SURFACES.
THUS HAVE NOTHING MORE THAN TOKEN SLIGHT POPS FAR NE.
THERE IS ALSO A LESSER CONCERN ABOUT FOG DEVELOPING FAR SE WHERE
DEWPOINTS ARE STILL IN THE 60S. HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK BUT
STEADY NW WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY LOWER DEWPOINTS SUFFICIENTLY TO
PRECLUDE SUBSTANTIAL FOG DEVELOPMENT.
.LONG TERM.../TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
OVERALL LONG TERM MUDDLED WITH MANY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WITH
TIMING OF WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY HARD TO NAIL DOWN...THUS LIMITING
TIMING/PLACEMENT OF PRECIP CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. INITIALLY
HAVE A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE STATE
LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ASSOCIATED WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT TO
PUSH THROUGH THE CWA. SOUNDINGS INDICATING EAST/NORTHEASTERN AREA
UNCAPPED BY THE AFTERNOON. THEREFORE KEPT SOME LINGERING CHANCES
TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE WAVE MOVING
THROUGH...AND CHANCES CONFINED TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST WITH THE
UNCAPPED REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. FORCING SOMEWHAT SCANT TOWARD
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...THUS KEPT THE POPS LOW. AREA OF SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SKIRTS THE CWA MOVING EAST TUESDAY NIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS
UP ACROSS WESTERN IOWA...WITH PUSH OF THETA-E NOSE INTO THE CWA
TOWARD LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING. WEAK ENERGY MOVING
THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME
SCATTERED STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.
STRONGER WAVE LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...SO HAVE SPREAD POPS ACROSS ENTIRE CWA LATER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
UPPER RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL US AND SHIFTS A BIT
EASTWARD WITH THERMAL RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CWA. COULD SEE SOME
CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH THE WAA AND WEAK
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH ALOFT. HOWEVER AS THE CAP BUILDS INTO THE CWA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH WARMER TEMPS MOVING IN ALOFT AND H7 TEMPS
INTO THE +13C RANGE...ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE
NORTH/EASTERN CWA. WILL SEE BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION MAINLY
EXPECTED AT NIGHT WITH MCS ACTIVITY MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK
AS AN UPPER LOW DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A
BOUNDARY DROPPING THROUGH THE CWA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...WITH COOLER
TEMPS ALOFT. THUS HAVE INCREASED POPS TOWARD THE HIGH CHANCE WITH
MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERALL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE SEASONAL AVERAGE OR
SLIGHTLY WARMER THROUGHOUT THE WEEK...WITH INCREASING TEMPS INTO THE
WEEKEND AS THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS IN. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ABOVE
GUIDANCE VALUES FOR FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH CAPPING EXPECTED TO BE
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/SOUTHWESTERN CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...17/18Z
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
SCT CU AND BKN/OVC CIRRUS OVER SERN IA...INCLUDING NEAR KOTM.
EXPECT VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND EVEN INTO TUE
MORNING. ONLY MINOR CONCERN IS STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TUE MORNING.
SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A SUBTLE HINT AT MVFR STRATUS AROUND
15Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT
THE MOMENT. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S STILL LINGER SOUTH AS WELL SO
HAVE ADDED MVFR VSBYS TO KOTM EARLY IN THE MORNING...AND THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN LOWER CATEGORIES.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL
000
FXUS63 KDMX 171749
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1249 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY /...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. DURING THE DAY TODAY THIS WILL BE REPLACED
BY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A VERY WEAK TROUGH OR FRONTAL ZONE
SETTING UP IN OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS ZONE MAY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS DISCUSSED
BELOW...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE AFTER 00Z AND HAVE INCLUDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
POPS FOR THE 20Z-23Z PERIOD. ALSO MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST NEAR YESTERDAYS LEVELS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE LONGER TERM IS THE FIRST PROBLEM OF
THE DAY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE PRECIP. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS DO SHOW A DOUBLE STRUCTURE IN THE S/WV PATTERN WITH THE
FIRST MOVING THROUGH SRN IA TONIGHT...AND THE STRONGER CLIPPING
THE NERN PART OF THE CWA ON TUE. WILL PLAY IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
NMM RUNS FROM THIS EVENING. EXPECTED TO SEE THE TSRA FROM THE
FIRST EXIT THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SECOND SHORT AFFECTING
THE NERN ZONES TUE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A COUPLE DRY
DAYS BEFORE MOVING OFF. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH THE AXIS IF THE
UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH IF I-70...ALLOWING
SUFFICIENT FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO KEEP THE PATTERN
ACTIVE. PERIODIC TSRA WILL BEGIN WED NIGHT OVER THE WEST AND BE
OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
WARM SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL READING THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE AS LARGE POOL OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH IS DRAWN INTO IA. DEW POINTS WILL BE
FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S STATEWIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...17/18Z
ISSUED AT 1248 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
SCT CU AND BKN/OVC CIRRUS OVER SERN IA...INCLUDING NEAR KOTM.
EXPECT VFR/MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS LATER TONIGHT AND EVEN INTO TUE
MORNING. ONLY MINOR CONCERN IS STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TUE MORNING.
SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING A SUBTLE HINT AT MVFR STRATUS AROUND
15Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IS CERTAINLY NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT
THE MOMENT. DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S STILL LINGER SOUTH AS WELL SO
HAVE ADDED MVFR VSBYS TO KOTM EARLY IN THE MORNING...AND THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR EVEN LOWER CATEGORIES.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...MS JUN 13
AVIATION...SMALL
000
FXUS63 KDMX 171132
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
632 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY /...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. DURING THE DAY TODAY THIS WILL BE REPLACED
BY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A VERY WEAK TROUGH OR FRONTAL ZONE
SETTING UP IN OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS ZONE MAY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS DISCUSSED
BELOW...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE AFTER 00Z AND HAVE INCLUDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
POPS FOR THE 20Z-23Z PERIOD. ALSO MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST NEAR YESTERDAYS LEVELS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE LONGER TERM IS THE FIRST PROBLEM OF
THE DAY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE PRECIP. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS DO SHOW A DOUBLE STRUCTURE IN THE S/WV PATTERN WITH THE
FIRST MOVING THROUGH SRN IA TONIGHT...AND THE STRONGER CLIPPING
THE NERN PART OF THE CWA ON TUE. WILL PLAY IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
NMM RUNS FROM THIS EVENING. EXPECTED TO SEE THE TSRA FROM THE
FIRST EXIT THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SECOND SHORT AFFECTING
THE NERN ZONES TUE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A COUPLE DRY
DAYS BEFORE MOVING OFF. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH THE AXIS IF THE
UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH IF I-70...ALLOWING
SUFFICIENT FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO KEEP THE PATTERN
ACTIVE. PERIODIC TSRA WILL BEGIN WED NIGHT OVER THE WEST AND BE
OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
WARM SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL READING THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE AS LARGE POOL OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH IS DRAWN INTO IA. DEW POINTS WILL BE
FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S STATEWIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...17/12Z
ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...AND MAY IMPACT KOTM BETWEEN ABOUT 22Z AND
04Z...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY IS QUITE LOW SO NO MENTION HAS BEEN
MADE IN THE 12Z TAFS.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...MS JUN 13
AVIATION...LEE
000
FXUS63 KDMX 170827
AFDDMX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
327 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SHORT TERM.../TODAY /...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
ANOTHER QUIET DAY IS IN STORE ACROSS THE AREA. CURRENTLY A SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA IS SLIDING SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA RESULTING IN
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. DURING THE DAY TODAY THIS WILL BE REPLACED
BY LIGHT NORTHWEST FLOW WITH A VERY WEAK TROUGH OR FRONTAL ZONE
SETTING UP IN OUR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. THIS ZONE MAY SERVE AS A
FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AS DISCUSSED
BELOW...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE BEST THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES ARE AFTER 00Z AND HAVE INCLUDED ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE/ISOLATED
POPS FOR THE 20Z-23Z PERIOD. ALSO MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPERATURE
FORECAST NEAR YESTERDAYS LEVELS WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO BE GENERALLY
IN THE MID 80S.
.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 AM CDT MON JUN 17 2013
DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE LONGER TERM IS THE FIRST PROBLEM OF
THE DAY WITH THE HANDLING OF THE PRECIP. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION
MODELS DO SHOW A DOUBLE STRUCTURE IN THE S/WV PATTERN WITH THE
FIRST MOVING THROUGH SRN IA TONIGHT...AND THE STRONGER CLIPPING
THE NERN PART OF THE CWA ON TUE. WILL PLAY IT FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE
NMM RUNS FROM THIS EVENING. EXPECTED TO SEE THE TSRA FROM THE
FIRST EXIT THE CWA BY MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SECOND SHORT AFFECTING
THE NERN ZONES TUE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A COUPLE DRY
DAYS BEFORE MOVING OFF. UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...THOUGH THE AXIS IF THE
UPPER HIGH IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTH IF I-70...ALLOWING
SUFFICIENT FLOW OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE TO KEEP THE PATTERN
ACTIVE. PERIODIC TSRA WILL BEGIN WED NIGHT OVER THE WEST AND BE
OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPS WILL
WARM SLOWLY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ABOVE NORMAL READING THROUGH
MOST OF THE WEEK. HUMIDITY WILL ALSO INCREASE AS LARGE POOL OF
HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE SOUTH IS DRAWN INTO IA. DEW POINTS WILL BE
FELT BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH MID 60S TO MID 70S STATEWIDE.
&&
.AVIATION...17/06Z
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. MAY SEE SOME MVFR FOG DEVELOP AT OTM PAST 09Z AND POSSIBLY
SHORT LIVED IFR...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MENTION ATTM.
&&
.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...MS JUN 13
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
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