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000
FXUS63 KDMX 242348
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN KS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN MISSOURI BY END OF PERIOD. AS SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTH WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BEFORE THIS...ONGOING
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING AS FORCING
PUSHES OUT. MAY SEE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ALONG EASTERN EDGE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS LOW APPROACHES FORCING WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI NEAR 06Z AND CENTRAL IOWA NEAR
12Z. HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING NORTH PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z. MAY STILL BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND TIMING OF ONSET IN
SOUTHERN IOWA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND PWAT
VALUES WILL BE NEAR/OVER 1 INCH IN THE SOUTH NEAR 12Z. THIS IS
CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGH...AND WITH DEEP SATURATION NOTED THROUGH
COLUMN COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES NEAR 12Z...AND HAVE
INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
NEAR GOING WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP AND SEASONAL MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SWRN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH AND LEADING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE TX PANHANDLE WILL FAIRLY RAPIDLY MATURE INTO THE
EVENING WITH DEEP FORCING INTO SE IA AND IMMEDIATE MS VALLEY SAT
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS DEEP LIFT WILL EXIT INTO IL BY
MIDDAY...295/300K ISENT SURFACES SHOW TROWAL REMNANTS AND WEAK LIFT
IN ELY FLOW LINGERING INTO CENTRAL IA WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR
DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH MUCAPES GET INTO THE HUNDREDS SOUTH EARLY...THE
SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER WEAK AND DISJOINTED VERTICAL WIND PROFILES
SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. RAW TEMPS VARY QUITE A BIT
SAT SO THESE DISCREPANCIES AND SOME NON- DIURNAL TRENDS WILL
RESULT IN REDUCED TEMPERATURE CONFIDENCE. DO NOT WANT TO LOWER
THINGS TOO MUCH HOWEVER...SO EXPECT LOW/MID 50S FOR HIGHS WITH
BRISK NELY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

MODELS DEPICT DRYING FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NIGHT SO EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES FROM THAT DIRECTION LEADING INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RELATIVELY WEAK SPLIT FLOW AND INACTIVE WEATHER FROM LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ON. ANOTHER SRN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND LOWER OH VALLEY...BUT WITH LITTLE EFFECTS THIS FAR NORTH.  NRN
STREAM WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AROUND TUE
OR WED.  THERE IS SOME FORCING BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND NEVER
REALLY PHASES WITH ADEQUATE DEPTH OR SATURATION SO EXTENDED FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT
IS MAINLY DUE TO MORE INSOLATION AS THE CALENDAR PROGRESS THAN ANY
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...25/00Z
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO
AREAS OF LIFR BETWEEN 09-18Z. SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS WELL. CIGS AND THE PRECIPITATION AREAL COVERAGE WILL
IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 242348
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN KS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN MISSOURI BY END OF PERIOD. AS SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTH WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BEFORE THIS...ONGOING
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING AS FORCING
PUSHES OUT. MAY SEE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ALONG EASTERN EDGE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS LOW APPROACHES FORCING WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI NEAR 06Z AND CENTRAL IOWA NEAR
12Z. HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING NORTH PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z. MAY STILL BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND TIMING OF ONSET IN
SOUTHERN IOWA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND PWAT
VALUES WILL BE NEAR/OVER 1 INCH IN THE SOUTH NEAR 12Z. THIS IS
CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGH...AND WITH DEEP SATURATION NOTED THROUGH
COLUMN COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES NEAR 12Z...AND HAVE
INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
NEAR GOING WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP AND SEASONAL MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SWRN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH AND LEADING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE TX PANHANDLE WILL FAIRLY RAPIDLY MATURE INTO THE
EVENING WITH DEEP FORCING INTO SE IA AND IMMEDIATE MS VALLEY SAT
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS DEEP LIFT WILL EXIT INTO IL BY
MIDDAY...295/300K ISENT SURFACES SHOW TROWAL REMNANTS AND WEAK LIFT
IN ELY FLOW LINGERING INTO CENTRAL IA WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR
DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH MUCAPES GET INTO THE HUNDREDS SOUTH EARLY...THE
SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER WEAK AND DISJOINTED VERTICAL WIND PROFILES
SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. RAW TEMPS VARY QUITE A BIT
SAT SO THESE DISCREPANCIES AND SOME NON- DIURNAL TRENDS WILL
RESULT IN REDUCED TEMPERATURE CONFIDENCE. DO NOT WANT TO LOWER
THINGS TOO MUCH HOWEVER...SO EXPECT LOW/MID 50S FOR HIGHS WITH
BRISK NELY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

MODELS DEPICT DRYING FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NIGHT SO EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES FROM THAT DIRECTION LEADING INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RELATIVELY WEAK SPLIT FLOW AND INACTIVE WEATHER FROM LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ON. ANOTHER SRN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND LOWER OH VALLEY...BUT WITH LITTLE EFFECTS THIS FAR NORTH.  NRN
STREAM WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AROUND TUE
OR WED.  THERE IS SOME FORCING BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND NEVER
REALLY PHASES WITH ADEQUATE DEPTH OR SATURATION SO EXTENDED FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT
IS MAINLY DUE TO MORE INSOLATION AS THE CALENDAR PROGRESS THAN ANY
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...25/00Z
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

DETERIORATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. CIGS WILL LOWER THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO
AREAS OF LIFR BETWEEN 09-18Z. SHOWERS WILL EXPAND IN AREAL
COVERAGE AS WELL. CIGS AND THE PRECIPITATION AREAL COVERAGE WILL
IMPROVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE AS WELL WITH GUSTS
OVER 30 KTS POSSIBLE AT TIMES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 242040
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN KS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN MISSOURI BY END OF PERIOD. AS SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTH WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BEFORE THIS...ONGOING
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING AS FORCING
PUSHES OUT. MAY SEE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ALONG EASTERN EDGE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS LOW APPROACHES FORCING WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI NEAR 06Z AND CENTRAL IOWA NEAR
12Z. HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING NORTH PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z. MAY STILL BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND TIMING OF ONSET IN
SOUTHERN IOWA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND PWAT
VALUES WILL BE NEAR/OVER 1 INCH IN THE SOUTH NEAR 12Z. THIS IS
CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGH...AND WITH DEEP SATURATION NOTED THROUGH
COLUMN COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES NEAR 12Z...AND HAVE
INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
NEAR GOING WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP AND SEASONAL MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SWRN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH AND LEADING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE TX PANHANDLE WILL FAIRLY RAPIDLY MATURE INTO THE
EVENING WITH DEEP FORCING INTO SE IA AND IMMEDIATE MS VALLEY SAT
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS DEEP LIFT WILL EXIT INTO IL BY
MIDDAY...295/300K ISENT SURFACES SHOW TROWAL REMNANTS AND WEAK LIFT
IN ELY FLOW LINGERING INTO CENTRAL IA WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR
DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH MUCAPES GET INTO THE HUNDREDS SOUTH EARLY...THE
SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER WEAK AND DISJOINTED VERTICAL WIND PROFILES
SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. RAW TEMPS VARY QUITE A BIT
SAT SO THESE DISCREPANCIES AND SOME NON- DIURNAL TRENDS WILL
RESULT IN REDUCED TEMPERATURE CONFIDENCE. DO NOT WANT TO LOWER
THINGS TOO MUCH HOWEVER...SO EXPECT LOW/MID 50S FOR HIGHS WITH
BRISK NELY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

MODELS DEPICT DRYING FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NIGHT SO EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES FROM THAT DIRECTION LEADING INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RELATIVELY WEAK SPLIT FLOW AND INACTIVE WEATHER FROM LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ON. ANOTHER SRN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND LOWER OH VALLEY...BUT WITH LITTLE EFFECTS THIS FAR NORTH.  NRN
STREAM WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AROUND TUE
OR WED.  THERE IS SOME FORCING BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND NEVER
REALLY PHASES WITH ADEQUATE DEPTH OR SATURATION SO EXTENDED FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT
IS MAINLY DUE TO MORE INSOLATION AS THE CALENDAR PROGRESS THAN ANY
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHRA AND TSRA CHANCES AT
SITES THROUGH PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL PRIMARILY BE MVFR OR
LOWER...THOUGH MAY RISE TO LOW VFR AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEYOND 06Z AND MAY DROP TO LIFR NEAR
12Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND STRONG...BEFORE BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 242040
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SURFACE LOW IN WESTERN KS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT...REACHING NORTHERN MISSOURI BY END OF PERIOD. AS SYSTEM
LIFTS NORTH WILL SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION BEGIN TO SPREAD
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. BEFORE THIS...ONGOING
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EASTWARD. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS
HIGH RES MODEL SOLUTIONS...WITH PRECIPITATION DIMINISHING AS FORCING
PUSHES OUT. MAY SEE CONTINUED DEVELOPMENT ALONG EASTERN EDGE THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. AS LOW APPROACHES FORCING WILL
BEGIN TO PUSH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI NEAR 06Z AND CENTRAL IOWA NEAR
12Z. HAVE KEPT POPS CONFINED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH MUCH OF THE
OVERNIGHT...SPREADING NORTH PRIMARILY AFTER 06Z. MAY STILL BE TOO
AGGRESSIVE ON NORTHERN EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION AND TIMING OF ONSET IN
SOUTHERN IOWA. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF SYSTEM AND PWAT
VALUES WILL BE NEAR/OVER 1 INCH IN THE SOUTH NEAR 12Z. THIS IS
CLIMATOLOGICAL HIGH...AND WITH DEEP SATURATION NOTED THROUGH
COLUMN COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES NEAR 12Z...AND HAVE
INCREASED QPF ACROSS THE SOUTH. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES GENERALLY
NEAR GOING WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION KEEP TEMPERATURES FAIRLY
STEADY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

PRIMARY SENSIBLE WEATHER WILL BE EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF PRECIP AND SEASONAL MODERATING TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT
WEEK.  SWRN U.S. LONG WAVE TROUGH AND LEADING SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY
APPROACHING THE TX PANHANDLE WILL FAIRLY RAPIDLY MATURE INTO THE
EVENING WITH DEEP FORCING INTO SE IA AND IMMEDIATE MS VALLEY SAT
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THIS DEEP LIFT WILL EXIT INTO IL BY
MIDDAY...295/300K ISENT SURFACES SHOW TROWAL REMNANTS AND WEAK LIFT
IN ELY FLOW LINGERING INTO CENTRAL IA WITH PATCHY LIGHT RAIN AND/OR
DRIZZLE. ALTHOUGH MUCAPES GET INTO THE HUNDREDS SOUTH EARLY...THE
SOUNDINGS SHOW RATHER WEAK AND DISJOINTED VERTICAL WIND PROFILES
SO SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. RAW TEMPS VARY QUITE A BIT
SAT SO THESE DISCREPANCIES AND SOME NON- DIURNAL TRENDS WILL
RESULT IN REDUCED TEMPERATURE CONFIDENCE. DO NOT WANT TO LOWER
THINGS TOO MUCH HOWEVER...SO EXPECT LOW/MID 50S FOR HIGHS WITH
BRISK NELY WINDS MAKING IT FEEL EVEN COOLER.

MODELS DEPICT DRYING FROM THE NORTHEAST INTO THE NIGHT SO EXPECT
CLEARING SKIES FROM THAT DIRECTION LEADING INTO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF RELATIVELY WEAK SPLIT FLOW AND INACTIVE WEATHER FROM LATE IN THE
WEEKEND ON. ANOTHER SRN STREAM WAVE WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND LOWER OH VALLEY...BUT WITH LITTLE EFFECTS THIS FAR NORTH.  NRN
STREAM WAVE WILL DROP INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY AROUND TUE
OR WED.  THERE IS SOME FORCING BUT MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND NEVER
REALLY PHASES WITH ADEQUATE DEPTH OR SATURATION SO EXTENDED FORECAST
REMAINS DRY. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO NEXT WEEK...BUT THAT
IS MAINLY DUE TO MORE INSOLATION AS THE CALENDAR PROGRESS THAN ANY
SIGNIFICANT AIRMASS CHANGE.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHRA AND TSRA CHANCES AT
SITES THROUGH PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL PRIMARILY BE MVFR OR
LOWER...THOUGH MAY RISE TO LOW VFR AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEYOND 06Z AND MAY DROP TO LIFR NEAR
12Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND STRONG...BEFORE BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 241749
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1249 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SOUTHEAST FLOW OF DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE STATE  SOME
ECHOS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST IA. THESE ARE DUE
TO THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS SOME WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS.  WITH 25 TO 30 KTS FLOWING INTO SLOWER 10 TO 15 KT
AIR...IT IS JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
CLAP OF THUNDER. AT THE DAY PROGRESSES...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD.  LIMITED INSTABILITY EXISTS BEING
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...BUT THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THAT IS ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE ISOLATED ON THUNDER
CHANCES.  TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GOING UP WITH
THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING SHOWERS.  LITTLE RISE IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEST...AND MODEST RISES IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST ABOUT ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THE SYSTEM FOR TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IS THAT EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...THE MODELS HAVE ALL BUT
REMOVED OR WEAKENED THE INSTABILITY ACROSS IOWA. THE SHEAR ACROSS
US IS ALSO WEAKER AND MORE QUESTIONABLE.  EVEN THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS BUT IT DOES HANG ON TO INSTABILITY LONGER THAN
ANY OTHER MODEL. THE RESULT IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
AT BEST FOR IOWA AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL FALL. TONIGHT A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE DAY SATURDAY AND PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING BY THAT
TIME WITH RIDGING ALREADY BUILDING BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SATURDAY EVENING.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY
MAKES. THE MODELS ARE NOW IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM AND NOW CLOSE THE LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING IT EAST. ACROSS THE NORTH A SECOND
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS BUT NEVER REALLY INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. MOISTURE NOW LOOKS TO BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND PRECIP IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR IOWA.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND THE EURO PARKS THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS US MORE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER WEST
AND BACK OVER THE ROCKIES. SO NEXT WEEK LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL AND
MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHRA AND TSRA CHANCES AT
SITES THROUGH PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL PRIMARILY BE MVFR OR
LOWER...THOUGH MAY RISE TO LOW VFR AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEYOND 06Z AND MAY DROP TO LIFR NEAR
12Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND STRONG...BEFORE BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS APR 15
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 241749
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1249 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SOUTHEAST FLOW OF DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE STATE  SOME
ECHOS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST IA. THESE ARE DUE
TO THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS SOME WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS.  WITH 25 TO 30 KTS FLOWING INTO SLOWER 10 TO 15 KT
AIR...IT IS JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
CLAP OF THUNDER. AT THE DAY PROGRESSES...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD.  LIMITED INSTABILITY EXISTS BEING
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...BUT THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THAT IS ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE ISOLATED ON THUNDER
CHANCES.  TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GOING UP WITH
THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING SHOWERS.  LITTLE RISE IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEST...AND MODEST RISES IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST ABOUT ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THE SYSTEM FOR TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IS THAT EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...THE MODELS HAVE ALL BUT
REMOVED OR WEAKENED THE INSTABILITY ACROSS IOWA. THE SHEAR ACROSS
US IS ALSO WEAKER AND MORE QUESTIONABLE.  EVEN THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS BUT IT DOES HANG ON TO INSTABILITY LONGER THAN
ANY OTHER MODEL. THE RESULT IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
AT BEST FOR IOWA AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL FALL. TONIGHT A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE DAY SATURDAY AND PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING BY THAT
TIME WITH RIDGING ALREADY BUILDING BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SATURDAY EVENING.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY
MAKES. THE MODELS ARE NOW IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM AND NOW CLOSE THE LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING IT EAST. ACROSS THE NORTH A SECOND
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS BUT NEVER REALLY INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. MOISTURE NOW LOOKS TO BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND PRECIP IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR IOWA.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND THE EURO PARKS THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS US MORE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER WEST
AND BACK OVER THE ROCKIES. SO NEXT WEEK LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL AND
MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL KEEP SHRA AND TSRA CHANCES AT
SITES THROUGH PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL PRIMARILY BE MVFR OR
LOWER...THOUGH MAY RISE TO LOW VFR AT TIMES. WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEYOND 06Z AND MAY DROP TO LIFR NEAR
12Z. WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND STRONG...BEFORE BECOMING
NORTHEASTERLY AFTER 12Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS APR 15
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 241129
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
629 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SOUTHEAST FLOW OF DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE STATE  SOME
ECHOS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST IA. THESE ARE DUE
TO THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS SOME WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS.  WITH 25 TO 30 KTS FLOWING INTO SLOWER 10 TO 15 KT
AIR...IT IS JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
CLAP OF THUNDER. AT THE DAY PROGRESSES...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD.  LIMITED INSTABILITY EXISTS BEING
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...BUT THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THAT IS ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE ISOLATED ON THUNDER
CHANCES.  TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GOING UP WITH
THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING SHOWERS.  LITTLE RISE IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEST...AND MODEST RISES IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST ABOUT ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THE SYSTEM FOR TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IS THAT EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...THE MODELS HAVE ALL BUT
REMOVED OR WEAKENED THE INSTABILITY ACROSS IOWA. THE SHEAR ACROSS
US IS ALSO WEAKER AND MORE QUESTIONABLE.  EVEN THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS BUT IT DOES HANG ON TO INSTABILITY LONGER THAN
ANY OTHER MODEL. THE RESULT IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
AT BEST FOR IOWA AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL FALL. TONIGHT A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE DAY SATURDAY AND PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING BY THAT
TIME WITH RIDGING ALREADY BUILDING BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SATURDAY EVENING.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY
MAKES. THE MODELS ARE NOW IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM AND NOW CLOSE THE LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING IT EAST. ACROSS THE NORTH A SECOND
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS BUT NEVER REALLY INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. MOISTURE NOW LOOKS TO BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND PRECIP IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR IOWA.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND THE EURO PARKS THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS US MORE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER WEST
AND BACK OVER THE ROCKIES. SO NEXT WEEK LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL AND
MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI SATURDAY. DETEORATINGCONDITIONS
IN STRATUS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON...IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO TUE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS APR 15
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...MS APR 15




000
FXUS63 KDMX 241129
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
629 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SOUTHEAST FLOW OF DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE STATE  SOME
ECHOS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST IA. THESE ARE DUE
TO THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS SOME WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS.  WITH 25 TO 30 KTS FLOWING INTO SLOWER 10 TO 15 KT
AIR...IT IS JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
CLAP OF THUNDER. AT THE DAY PROGRESSES...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD.  LIMITED INSTABILITY EXISTS BEING
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...BUT THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THAT IS ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE ISOLATED ON THUNDER
CHANCES.  TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GOING UP WITH
THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING SHOWERS.  LITTLE RISE IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEST...AND MODEST RISES IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST ABOUT ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THE SYSTEM FOR TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IS THAT EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...THE MODELS HAVE ALL BUT
REMOVED OR WEAKENED THE INSTABILITY ACROSS IOWA. THE SHEAR ACROSS
US IS ALSO WEAKER AND MORE QUESTIONABLE.  EVEN THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS BUT IT DOES HANG ON TO INSTABILITY LONGER THAN
ANY OTHER MODEL. THE RESULT IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
AT BEST FOR IOWA AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL FALL. TONIGHT A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE DAY SATURDAY AND PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING BY THAT
TIME WITH RIDGING ALREADY BUILDING BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SATURDAY EVENING.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY
MAKES. THE MODELS ARE NOW IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM AND NOW CLOSE THE LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING IT EAST. ACROSS THE NORTH A SECOND
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS BUT NEVER REALLY INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. MOISTURE NOW LOOKS TO BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND PRECIP IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR IOWA.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND THE EURO PARKS THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS US MORE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER WEST
AND BACK OVER THE ROCKIES. SO NEXT WEEK LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL AND
MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI SATURDAY. DETEORATINGCONDITIONS
IN STRATUS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON...IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO TUE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS APR 15
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...MS APR 15





000
FXUS63 KDMX 241129
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
629 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SOUTHEAST FLOW OF DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE STATE  SOME
ECHOS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST IA. THESE ARE DUE
TO THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS SOME WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS.  WITH 25 TO 30 KTS FLOWING INTO SLOWER 10 TO 15 KT
AIR...IT IS JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
CLAP OF THUNDER. AT THE DAY PROGRESSES...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD.  LIMITED INSTABILITY EXISTS BEING
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...BUT THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THAT IS ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE ISOLATED ON THUNDER
CHANCES.  TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GOING UP WITH
THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING SHOWERS.  LITTLE RISE IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEST...AND MODEST RISES IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST ABOUT ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THE SYSTEM FOR TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IS THAT EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...THE MODELS HAVE ALL BUT
REMOVED OR WEAKENED THE INSTABILITY ACROSS IOWA. THE SHEAR ACROSS
US IS ALSO WEAKER AND MORE QUESTIONABLE.  EVEN THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS BUT IT DOES HANG ON TO INSTABILITY LONGER THAN
ANY OTHER MODEL. THE RESULT IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
AT BEST FOR IOWA AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL FALL. TONIGHT A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE DAY SATURDAY AND PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING BY THAT
TIME WITH RIDGING ALREADY BUILDING BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SATURDAY EVENING.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY
MAKES. THE MODELS ARE NOW IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM AND NOW CLOSE THE LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING IT EAST. ACROSS THE NORTH A SECOND
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS BUT NEVER REALLY INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. MOISTURE NOW LOOKS TO BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND PRECIP IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR IOWA.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND THE EURO PARKS THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS US MORE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER WEST
AND BACK OVER THE ROCKIES. SO NEXT WEEK LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL AND
MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI SATURDAY. DETEORATINGCONDITIONS
IN STRATUS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON...IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO TUE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS APR 15
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...MS APR 15




000
FXUS63 KDMX 241129
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
629 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SOUTHEAST FLOW OF DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE STATE  SOME
ECHOS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST IA. THESE ARE DUE
TO THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS SOME WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS.  WITH 25 TO 30 KTS FLOWING INTO SLOWER 10 TO 15 KT
AIR...IT IS JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
CLAP OF THUNDER. AT THE DAY PROGRESSES...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD.  LIMITED INSTABILITY EXISTS BEING
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...BUT THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THAT IS ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE ISOLATED ON THUNDER
CHANCES.  TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GOING UP WITH
THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING SHOWERS.  LITTLE RISE IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEST...AND MODEST RISES IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST ABOUT ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THE SYSTEM FOR TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IS THAT EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...THE MODELS HAVE ALL BUT
REMOVED OR WEAKENED THE INSTABILITY ACROSS IOWA. THE SHEAR ACROSS
US IS ALSO WEAKER AND MORE QUESTIONABLE.  EVEN THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS BUT IT DOES HANG ON TO INSTABILITY LONGER THAN
ANY OTHER MODEL. THE RESULT IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
AT BEST FOR IOWA AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL FALL. TONIGHT A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE DAY SATURDAY AND PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING BY THAT
TIME WITH RIDGING ALREADY BUILDING BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SATURDAY EVENING.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY
MAKES. THE MODELS ARE NOW IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM AND NOW CLOSE THE LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING IT EAST. ACROSS THE NORTH A SECOND
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS BUT NEVER REALLY INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. MOISTURE NOW LOOKS TO BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND PRECIP IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR IOWA.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND THE EURO PARKS THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS US MORE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER WEST
AND BACK OVER THE ROCKIES. SO NEXT WEEK LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL AND
MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 623 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST
AND MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN MISSOURI SATURDAY. DETEORATINGCONDITIONS
IN STRATUS WITH MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE STATE
THIS AFTERNOON...IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...WIDESPREAD IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS SATURDAY WITH GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO TUE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS APR 15
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...MS APR 15





000
FXUS63 KDMX 240914
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
414 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SOUTHEAST FLOW OF DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE STATE  SOME
ECHOS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST IA. THESE ARE DUE
TO THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS SOME WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS.  WITH 25 TO 30 KTS FLOWING INTO SLOWER 10 TO 15 KT
AIR...IT IS JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
CLAP OF THUNDER. AT THE DAY PROGRESSES...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD.  LIMITED INSTABILITY EXISTS BEING
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...BUT THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THAT IS ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE ISOLATED ON THUNDER
CHANCES.  TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GOING UP WITH
THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING SHOWERS.  LITTLE RISE IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEST...AND MODEST RISES IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST ABOUT ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THE SYSTEM FOR TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IS THAT EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...THE MODELS HAVE ALL BUT
REMOVED OR WEAKENED THE INSTABILITY ACROSS IOWA. THE SHEAR ACROSS
US IS ALSO WEAKER AND MORE QUESTIONABLE.  EVEN THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS BUT IT DOES HANG ON TO INSTABILITY LONGER THAN
ANY OTHER MODEL. THE RESULT IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
AT BEST FOR IOWA AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL FALL. TONIGHT A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE DAY SATURDAY AND PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING BY THAT
TIME WITH RIDGING ALREADY BUILDING BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SATURDAY EVENING.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY
MAKES. THE MODELS ARE NOW IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM AND NOW CLOSE THE LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING IT EAST. ACROSS THE NORTH A SECOND
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS BUT NEVER REALLY INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. MOISTURE NOW LOOKS TO BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND PRECIP IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR IOWA.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND THE EURO PARKS THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS US MORE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER WEST
AND BACK OVER THE ROCKIES. SO NEXT WEEK LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL AND
MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING...CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...AND CIGS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH NEXT
WAVE ARRIVING OVERNIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY MORNING WEST. HAVE INTRODUCED
VCSH NEAR 12Z-13Z WEST SITES WITH -RA/RA INCREASING THROUGH 18Z TO
EAST. ISO THUNDER LOOKING LESS LIKELY AS COVERAGE STILL IN
QUESTION WITH LIMITED TO NO MUCAPE AND DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...MORE
LIKELY THE AIRMASS WILL JUST STABILIZE MID LEVELS AND SQUELCH
ELEVATED CONVECTION. VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR WITH
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND VSBY DROP TO MVFR AS WELL. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST GUSTING TO 22-24KTS AT TIMES THROUGH
00Z. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS UNTIL THE MAIN SYSTEM
ARRIVES BETWEEN 02-04Z...WHEN COVERAGE OF RAIN AND POTENTIAL OVN
THUNDER RAMPS UP AGAIN./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 240914
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
414 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

SOUTHEAST FLOW OF DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FEED INTO THE STATE  SOME
ECHOS HAVE DEVELOPED FROM CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST IA. THESE ARE DUE
TO THETA-E ADVECTION AS WELL AS SOME WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE
LOWER LEVELS.  WITH 25 TO 30 KTS FLOWING INTO SLOWER 10 TO 15 KT
AIR...IT IS JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME SHOWERS WITH AN OCCASIONAL
CLAP OF THUNDER. AT THE DAY PROGRESSES...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE WITH
PRECIPITATION BECOMING WIDESPREAD.  LIMITED INSTABILITY EXISTS BEING
NORTH OF THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACK...BUT THERE IS SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY.  THAT IS ENOUGH TO GO WITH THE ISOLATED ON THUNDER
CHANCES.  TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL HAVE A TOUGH TIME GOING UP WITH
THE CLOUDS AND INCREASING SHOWERS.  LITTLE RISE IS EXPECTED IN THE
WEST...AND MODEST RISES IN THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 329 AM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

FORECAST ABOUT ON TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE WITH THE SYSTEM FOR TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY IS THAT EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...THE MODELS HAVE ALL BUT
REMOVED OR WEAKENED THE INSTABILITY ACROSS IOWA. THE SHEAR ACROSS
US IS ALSO WEAKER AND MORE QUESTIONABLE.  EVEN THE GFS IS
CONSIDERABLY LESS BUT IT DOES HANG ON TO INSTABILITY LONGER THAN
ANY OTHER MODEL. THE RESULT IS THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
AT BEST FOR IOWA AND SHOULD BE CONFINED TO AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80 TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
WILL FALL. TONIGHT A FAIRLY POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING OFF TO THE
EAST BY LATE DAY SATURDAY AND PRECIP SHOULD BE ENDING BY THAT
TIME WITH RIDGING ALREADY BUILDING BACK INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST
SATURDAY EVENING.

AS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY
MAKES. THE MODELS ARE NOW IS MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE NEXT
SYSTEM AND NOW CLOSE THE LOW OFF OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING IT EAST. ACROSS THE NORTH A SECOND
SHORTWAVE DEVELOPS BUT NEVER REALLY INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM. MOISTURE NOW LOOKS TO BE LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND PRECIP IS LOOKING LESS LIKELY FOR IOWA.

UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE ROCKIES FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK
AND THE EURO PARKS THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST WHILE THE GFS
KEEPS US MORE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WITH THE RIDGE AXIS FURTHER WEST
AND BACK OVER THE ROCKIES. SO NEXT WEEK LOOKS SEASONABLY COOL AND
MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING...CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...AND CIGS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH NEXT
WAVE ARRIVING OVERNIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY MORNING WEST. HAVE INTRODUCED
VCSH NEAR 12Z-13Z WEST SITES WITH -RA/RA INCREASING THROUGH 18Z TO
EAST. ISO THUNDER LOOKING LESS LIKELY AS COVERAGE STILL IN
QUESTION WITH LIMITED TO NO MUCAPE AND DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...MORE
LIKELY THE AIRMASS WILL JUST STABILIZE MID LEVELS AND SQUELCH
ELEVATED CONVECTION. VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR WITH
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND VSBY DROP TO MVFR AS WELL. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST GUSTING TO 22-24KTS AT TIMES THROUGH
00Z. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS UNTIL THE MAIN SYSTEM
ARRIVES BETWEEN 02-04Z...WHEN COVERAGE OF RAIN AND POTENTIAL OVN
THUNDER RAMPS UP AGAIN./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 240414
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1114 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WINDS LIGHTER.
THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP IN THE EAST. HAVE
THEREFORE DROPPED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST...AND ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR...MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPERATURES WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH RETURN OF CLOUDS AND WAA AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD
OF A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER WESTERN IOWA NEAR 12Z...DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO ISSUE FREEZE OR FROST
HEADLINES...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND FEEL THEY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT DRY
AIR. THEREFORE...BELIEVE DRY AIR WILL HELP TO KEEP ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION DELAYED...AND HAVE PUSHED BACK ONSET TO CLOSER TO 12Z.
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IF PRECIPITATION PUSHES FAR ENOUGH EAST...THOUGH WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT ATTM AS BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEEKEND WILL BE A WET ONE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL BE IN THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE DRIVEN INITIALLY BY GOOD WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION...
PRIMARILY ABOVE THE SURFACE AROUND 850MB...AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
A VORT MAX FROM A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE FROM THE MORE GRADUAL LIFT OF THE WAA AND LIKELY HEAVIER WHEN
THE VORT MAX AND BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH A SHORT WHILE LATER. THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
ELEVATED CAPE...BUT WAS HELD OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVE ITS UNDERWHELMING NATURE.

EARLY SATURDAY WILL BEGIN THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING
ITS WAY OFF THE ROCKIES AND INTO KANSAS. THE LOW SHOULD PASS JUST
SOUTH OF IOWA AND MAY CLIP SOUTHEAST IOWA AS IT PASSES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND EVEN LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
CONCERN BEING HAIL AND WINDS. THE REST OF THE STATE WILL BE
COOL...IF NOT COLD...AND DREARY AS THEY CONSTANT OVERCAST SKIES
AND PRECIPITATION WHILE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND SECTION OF THE
LOW AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TOTALS MAY EASILY
EXCEED AN INCH ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE STORMS
MAY BE PRESENT.

AFTER THE LOW QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SET IN AND CLEAR SKIES OUT SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...HELPING KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE AND IN THE 60S. MIDWEEK THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SHOOTS SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN IOWA LATE TUESDAY AND MAY PROVIDE A QUICK SHOT OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...BUT THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. BY THURSDAY WE SHOULD FINALLY GET SITUATED
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE RATHER THAN SITTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS HAS
BEEN COMMON OF LATE. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING...CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...AND CIGS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH NEXT
WAVE ARRIVING OVERNIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY MORNING WEST. HAVE INTRODUCED
VCSH NEAR 12Z-13Z WEST SITES WITH -RA/RA INCREASING THROUGH 18Z TO
EAST. ISO THUNDER LOOKING LESS LIKELY AS COVERAGE STILL IN
QUESTION WITH LIMITED TO NO MUCAPE AND DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...MORE
LIKELY THE AIRMASS WILL JUST STABILIZE MID LEVELS AND SQUELCH
ELEVATED CONVECTION. VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR WITH
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND VSBY DROP TO MVFR AS WELL. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST GUSTING TO 22-24KTS AT TIMES THROUGH
00Z. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS UNTIL THE MAIN SYSTEM
ARRIVES BETWEEN 02-04Z...WHEN COVERAGE OF RAIN AND POTENTIAL OVN
THUNDER RAMPS UP AGAIN./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 240414
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1114 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WINDS LIGHTER.
THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP IN THE EAST. HAVE
THEREFORE DROPPED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST...AND ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR...MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPERATURES WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH RETURN OF CLOUDS AND WAA AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD
OF A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER WESTERN IOWA NEAR 12Z...DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO ISSUE FREEZE OR FROST
HEADLINES...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND FEEL THEY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT DRY
AIR. THEREFORE...BELIEVE DRY AIR WILL HELP TO KEEP ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION DELAYED...AND HAVE PUSHED BACK ONSET TO CLOSER TO 12Z.
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IF PRECIPITATION PUSHES FAR ENOUGH EAST...THOUGH WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT ATTM AS BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEEKEND WILL BE A WET ONE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL BE IN THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE DRIVEN INITIALLY BY GOOD WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION...
PRIMARILY ABOVE THE SURFACE AROUND 850MB...AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
A VORT MAX FROM A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE FROM THE MORE GRADUAL LIFT OF THE WAA AND LIKELY HEAVIER WHEN
THE VORT MAX AND BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH A SHORT WHILE LATER. THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
ELEVATED CAPE...BUT WAS HELD OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVE ITS UNDERWHELMING NATURE.

EARLY SATURDAY WILL BEGIN THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING
ITS WAY OFF THE ROCKIES AND INTO KANSAS. THE LOW SHOULD PASS JUST
SOUTH OF IOWA AND MAY CLIP SOUTHEAST IOWA AS IT PASSES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND EVEN LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
CONCERN BEING HAIL AND WINDS. THE REST OF THE STATE WILL BE
COOL...IF NOT COLD...AND DREARY AS THEY CONSTANT OVERCAST SKIES
AND PRECIPITATION WHILE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND SECTION OF THE
LOW AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TOTALS MAY EASILY
EXCEED AN INCH ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE STORMS
MAY BE PRESENT.

AFTER THE LOW QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SET IN AND CLEAR SKIES OUT SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...HELPING KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE AND IN THE 60S. MIDWEEK THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SHOOTS SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN IOWA LATE TUESDAY AND MAY PROVIDE A QUICK SHOT OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...BUT THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. BY THURSDAY WE SHOULD FINALLY GET SITUATED
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE RATHER THAN SITTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS HAS
BEEN COMMON OF LATE. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1114 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS THINKING...CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD WILL
BE CHANCES FOR THUNDER...AND CIGS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH NEXT
WAVE ARRIVING OVERNIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION TAKING
PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY MORNING WEST. HAVE INTRODUCED
VCSH NEAR 12Z-13Z WEST SITES WITH -RA/RA INCREASING THROUGH 18Z TO
EAST. ISO THUNDER LOOKING LESS LIKELY AS COVERAGE STILL IN
QUESTION WITH LIMITED TO NO MUCAPE AND DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...MORE
LIKELY THE AIRMASS WILL JUST STABILIZE MID LEVELS AND SQUELCH
ELEVATED CONVECTION. VFR CIGS WILL GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR WITH
HEAVIER RAINFALL AND VSBY DROP TO MVFR AS WELL. WINDS WILL
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST GUSTING TO 22-24KTS AT TIMES THROUGH
00Z. THERE SHOULD BE A LULL IN THE SHOWERS UNTIL THE MAIN SYSTEM
ARRIVES BETWEEN 02-04Z...WHEN COVERAGE OF RAIN AND POTENTIAL OVN
THUNDER RAMPS UP AGAIN./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 232329
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
629 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WINDS LIGHTER.
THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP IN THE EAST. HAVE
THEREFORE DROPPED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST...AND ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR...MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPERATURES WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH RETURN OF CLOUDS AND WAA AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD
OF A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER WESTERN IOWA NEAR 12Z...DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO ISSUE FREEZE OR FROST
HEADLINES...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND FEEL THEY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT DRY
AIR. THEREFORE...BELIEVE DRY AIR WILL HELP TO KEEP ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION DELAYED...AND HAVE PUSHED BACK ONSET TO CLOSER TO 12Z.
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IF PRECIPITATION PUSHES FAR ENOUGH EAST...THOUGH WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT ATTM AS BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEEKEND WILL BE A WET ONE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL BE IN THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE DRIVEN INITIALLY BY GOOD WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION...
PRIMARILY ABOVE THE SURFACE AROUND 850MB...AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
A VORT MAX FROM A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE FROM THE MORE GRADUAL LIFT OF THE WAA AND LIKELY HEAVIER WHEN
THE VORT MAX AND BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH A SHORT WHILE LATER. THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
ELEVATED CAPE...BUT WAS HELD OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVE ITS UNDERWHELMING NATURE.

EARLY SATURDAY WILL BEGIN THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING
ITS WAY OFF THE ROCKIES AND INTO KANSAS. THE LOW SHOULD PASS JUST
SOUTH OF IOWA AND MAY CLIP SOUTHEAST IOWA AS IT PASSES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND EVEN LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
CONCERN BEING HAIL AND WINDS. THE REST OF THE STATE WILL BE
COOL...IF NOT COLD...AND DREARY AS THEY CONSTANT OVERCAST SKIES
AND PRECIPITATION WHILE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND SECTION OF THE
LOW AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TOTALS MAY EASILY
EXCEED AN INCH ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE STORMS
MAY BE PRESENT.

AFTER THE LOW QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SET IN AND CLEAR SKIES OUT SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...HELPING KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE AND IN THE 60S. MIDWEEK THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SHOOTS SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN IOWA LATE TUESDAY AND MAY PROVIDE A QUICK SHOT OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...BUT THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. BY THURSDAY WE SHOULD FINALLY GET SITUATED
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE RATHER THAN SITTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS HAS
BEEN COMMON OF LATE. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/00Z
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD WILL BE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDER...AND CIGS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
NEXT WAVE ARRIVING OVERNIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION
TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY MORNING WEST. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCSH NEAR 12Z-13Z WEST SITES WITH -RA/RA INCREASING
THROUGH 18Z TO EAST. ISO THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE STILL IN
QUESTION WITH LIMITED MUCAPE AND DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...MAY JUST
STABILIZE MID LEVELS AND SQUELCH ELEVATED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE
VFR CIGS GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AND VSBY
DROP TO MVFR AS WELL. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
GUSTING TO 22-24KTS AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 232329
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
629 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WINDS LIGHTER.
THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP IN THE EAST. HAVE
THEREFORE DROPPED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST...AND ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR...MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPERATURES WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH RETURN OF CLOUDS AND WAA AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD
OF A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER WESTERN IOWA NEAR 12Z...DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO ISSUE FREEZE OR FROST
HEADLINES...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND FEEL THEY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT DRY
AIR. THEREFORE...BELIEVE DRY AIR WILL HELP TO KEEP ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION DELAYED...AND HAVE PUSHED BACK ONSET TO CLOSER TO 12Z.
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IF PRECIPITATION PUSHES FAR ENOUGH EAST...THOUGH WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT ATTM AS BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEEKEND WILL BE A WET ONE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL BE IN THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE DRIVEN INITIALLY BY GOOD WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION...
PRIMARILY ABOVE THE SURFACE AROUND 850MB...AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
A VORT MAX FROM A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE FROM THE MORE GRADUAL LIFT OF THE WAA AND LIKELY HEAVIER WHEN
THE VORT MAX AND BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH A SHORT WHILE LATER. THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
ELEVATED CAPE...BUT WAS HELD OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVE ITS UNDERWHELMING NATURE.

EARLY SATURDAY WILL BEGIN THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING
ITS WAY OFF THE ROCKIES AND INTO KANSAS. THE LOW SHOULD PASS JUST
SOUTH OF IOWA AND MAY CLIP SOUTHEAST IOWA AS IT PASSES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND EVEN LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
CONCERN BEING HAIL AND WINDS. THE REST OF THE STATE WILL BE
COOL...IF NOT COLD...AND DREARY AS THEY CONSTANT OVERCAST SKIES
AND PRECIPITATION WHILE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND SECTION OF THE
LOW AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TOTALS MAY EASILY
EXCEED AN INCH ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE STORMS
MAY BE PRESENT.

AFTER THE LOW QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SET IN AND CLEAR SKIES OUT SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...HELPING KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE AND IN THE 60S. MIDWEEK THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SHOOTS SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN IOWA LATE TUESDAY AND MAY PROVIDE A QUICK SHOT OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...BUT THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. BY THURSDAY WE SHOULD FINALLY GET SITUATED
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE RATHER THAN SITTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS HAS
BEEN COMMON OF LATE. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/00Z
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD WILL BE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDER...AND CIGS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
NEXT WAVE ARRIVING OVERNIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION
TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY MORNING WEST. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCSH NEAR 12Z-13Z WEST SITES WITH -RA/RA INCREASING
THROUGH 18Z TO EAST. ISO THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE STILL IN
QUESTION WITH LIMITED MUCAPE AND DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...MAY JUST
STABILIZE MID LEVELS AND SQUELCH ELEVATED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE
VFR CIGS GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AND VSBY
DROP TO MVFR AS WELL. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
GUSTING TO 22-24KTS AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 232329
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
629 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WINDS LIGHTER.
THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP IN THE EAST. HAVE
THEREFORE DROPPED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST...AND ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR...MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPERATURES WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH RETURN OF CLOUDS AND WAA AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD
OF A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER WESTERN IOWA NEAR 12Z...DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO ISSUE FREEZE OR FROST
HEADLINES...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND FEEL THEY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT DRY
AIR. THEREFORE...BELIEVE DRY AIR WILL HELP TO KEEP ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION DELAYED...AND HAVE PUSHED BACK ONSET TO CLOSER TO 12Z.
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IF PRECIPITATION PUSHES FAR ENOUGH EAST...THOUGH WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT ATTM AS BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEEKEND WILL BE A WET ONE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL BE IN THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE DRIVEN INITIALLY BY GOOD WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION...
PRIMARILY ABOVE THE SURFACE AROUND 850MB...AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
A VORT MAX FROM A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE FROM THE MORE GRADUAL LIFT OF THE WAA AND LIKELY HEAVIER WHEN
THE VORT MAX AND BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH A SHORT WHILE LATER. THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
ELEVATED CAPE...BUT WAS HELD OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVE ITS UNDERWHELMING NATURE.

EARLY SATURDAY WILL BEGIN THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING
ITS WAY OFF THE ROCKIES AND INTO KANSAS. THE LOW SHOULD PASS JUST
SOUTH OF IOWA AND MAY CLIP SOUTHEAST IOWA AS IT PASSES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND EVEN LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
CONCERN BEING HAIL AND WINDS. THE REST OF THE STATE WILL BE
COOL...IF NOT COLD...AND DREARY AS THEY CONSTANT OVERCAST SKIES
AND PRECIPITATION WHILE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND SECTION OF THE
LOW AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TOTALS MAY EASILY
EXCEED AN INCH ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE STORMS
MAY BE PRESENT.

AFTER THE LOW QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SET IN AND CLEAR SKIES OUT SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...HELPING KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE AND IN THE 60S. MIDWEEK THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SHOOTS SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN IOWA LATE TUESDAY AND MAY PROVIDE A QUICK SHOT OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...BUT THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. BY THURSDAY WE SHOULD FINALLY GET SITUATED
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE RATHER THAN SITTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS HAS
BEEN COMMON OF LATE. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/00Z
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD WILL BE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDER...AND CIGS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
NEXT WAVE ARRIVING OVERNIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION
TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY MORNING WEST. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCSH NEAR 12Z-13Z WEST SITES WITH -RA/RA INCREASING
THROUGH 18Z TO EAST. ISO THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE STILL IN
QUESTION WITH LIMITED MUCAPE AND DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...MAY JUST
STABILIZE MID LEVELS AND SQUELCH ELEVATED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE
VFR CIGS GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AND VSBY
DROP TO MVFR AS WELL. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
GUSTING TO 22-24KTS AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 232329
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
629 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WINDS LIGHTER.
THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP IN THE EAST. HAVE
THEREFORE DROPPED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST...AND ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR...MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPERATURES WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH RETURN OF CLOUDS AND WAA AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD
OF A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER WESTERN IOWA NEAR 12Z...DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO ISSUE FREEZE OR FROST
HEADLINES...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND FEEL THEY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT DRY
AIR. THEREFORE...BELIEVE DRY AIR WILL HELP TO KEEP ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION DELAYED...AND HAVE PUSHED BACK ONSET TO CLOSER TO 12Z.
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IF PRECIPITATION PUSHES FAR ENOUGH EAST...THOUGH WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT ATTM AS BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEEKEND WILL BE A WET ONE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL BE IN THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE DRIVEN INITIALLY BY GOOD WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION...
PRIMARILY ABOVE THE SURFACE AROUND 850MB...AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY
A VORT MAX FROM A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AHEAD OF THE IMPENDING
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE FROM THE MORE GRADUAL LIFT OF THE WAA AND LIKELY HEAVIER WHEN
THE VORT MAX AND BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH A SHORT WHILE LATER. THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF
ELEVATED CAPE...BUT WAS HELD OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME
BEING GIVE ITS UNDERWHELMING NATURE.

EARLY SATURDAY WILL BEGIN THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING
ITS WAY OFF THE ROCKIES AND INTO KANSAS. THE LOW SHOULD PASS JUST
SOUTH OF IOWA AND MAY CLIP SOUTHEAST IOWA AS IT PASSES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND EVEN LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
CONCERN BEING HAIL AND WINDS. THE REST OF THE STATE WILL BE
COOL...IF NOT COLD...AND DREARY AS THEY CONSTANT OVERCAST SKIES
AND PRECIPITATION WHILE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND SECTION OF THE
LOW AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TOTALS MAY EASILY
EXCEED AN INCH ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE STORMS
MAY BE PRESENT.

AFTER THE LOW QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SET IN AND CLEAR SKIES OUT SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...HELPING KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE AND IN THE 60S. MIDWEEK THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SHOOTS SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN IOWA LATE TUESDAY AND MAY PROVIDE A QUICK SHOT OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...BUT THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. BY THURSDAY WE SHOULD FINALLY GET SITUATED
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE RATHER THAN SITTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS HAS
BEEN COMMON OF LATE. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...24/00Z
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD WILL BE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION ON
FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR THUNDER...AND CIGS. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH
NEXT WAVE ARRIVING OVERNIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT/SATURATION
TAKING PLACE ACROSS THE REGION BY EARLY MORNING WEST. HAVE
INTRODUCED VCSH NEAR 12Z-13Z WEST SITES WITH -RA/RA INCREASING
THROUGH 18Z TO EAST. ISO THUNDER POSSIBLE BUT COVERAGE STILL IN
QUESTION WITH LIMITED MUCAPE AND DRY AIR TO OVERCOME...MAY JUST
STABILIZE MID LEVELS AND SQUELCH ELEVATED CONVECTION. OTHERWISE
VFR CIGS GRADUALLY DROP TO MVFR WITH HEAVIER RAINFALL AND VSBY
DROP TO MVFR AS WELL. WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
GUSTING TO 22-24KTS AT TIMES THROUGH 00Z./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 232048
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
348 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WINDS LIGHTER.
THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP IN THE EAST. HAVE
THEREFORE DROPPED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST...AND ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR...MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPERATURES WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH RETURN OF CLOUDS AND WAA AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD
OF A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER WESTERN IOWA NEAR 12Z...DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO ISSUE FREEZE OR FROST
HEADLINES...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND FEEL THEY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT DRY
AIR. THEREFORE...BELIEVE DRY AIR WILL HELP TO KEEP ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION DELAYED...AND HAVE PUSHED BACK ONSET TO CLOSER TO 12Z.
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IF PRECIPITATION PUSHES FAR ENOUGH EAST...THOUGH WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT ATTM AS BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEEKEND WILL BE A WET ONE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL BE IN THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE DRIVEN INITIALLY BY GOOD WAA/THETA-E
ADVECTION...PRIMARILY ABOVE THE SURFACE AROUND 850MB...AND QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY A VORT MAX FROM A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AHEAD OF
THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE FROM THE MORE GRADUAL LIFT OF THE WAA AND
LIKELY HEAVIER WHEN THE VORT MAX AND BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH A
SHORT WHILE LATER. THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE...BUT WAS HELD OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING GIVE ITS UNDERWHELMING NATURE.

EARLY SATURDAY WILL BEGIN THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING
ITS WAY OFF THE ROCKIES AND INTO KANSAS. THE LOW SHOULD PASS JUST
SOUTH OF IOWA AND MAY CLIP SOUTHEAST IOWA AS IT PASSES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND EVEN LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
CONCERN BEING HAIL AND WINDS. THE REST OF THE STATE WILL BE
COOL...IF NOT COLD...AND DREARY AS THEY CONSTANT OVERCAST SKIES
AND PRECIPITATION WHILE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND SECTION OF THE
LOW AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TOTALS MAY EASILY
EXCEED AN INCH ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE STORMS
MAY BE PRESENT.

AFTER THE LOW QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SET IN AND CLEAR SKIES OUT SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...HELPING KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE AND IN THE 60S. MIDWEEK THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SHOOTS SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN IOWA LATE TUESDAY AND MAY PROVIDE A QUICK SHOT OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...BUT THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. BY THURSDAY WE SHOULD FINALLY GET SITUATED
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE RATHER THAN SITTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS HAS
BEEN COMMON OF LATE. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHERLY NEAR 00Z.
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN IOWA BY END OF PERIOD WITH
WINDS INCREASING. SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WESTERN SITES KFOD/KDSM
BY END OF PERIOD. WITH SHRA MAY SEE MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES THOUGH HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION ATTM DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 232048
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
348 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST FOR THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. THIS WILL HELP TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND WINDS LIGHTER.
THIS MIGHT ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO QUICKLY DROP IN THE EAST. HAVE
THEREFORE DROPPED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN THE EAST...AND ELSEWHERE.
GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR...MAY BE TOO WARM ON TEMPERATURES WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO DROP BELOW FREEZING IN THE EAST.
HOWEVER...WITH RETURN OF CLOUDS AND WAA AND INCREASING WINDS AHEAD
OF A BOUNDARY WHICH WILL ENTER WESTERN IOWA NEAR 12Z...DO NOT HAVE
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FREEZING TEMPERATURES TO ISSUE FREEZE OR FROST
HEADLINES...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CLOUDS AND
MOISTURE. MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER ON THE PROGRESSION OF THE
BOUNDARY...AND FEEL THEY DO NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON CURRENT DRY
AIR. THEREFORE...BELIEVE DRY AIR WILL HELP TO KEEP ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION DELAYED...AND HAVE PUSHED BACK ONSET TO CLOSER TO 12Z.
ENOUGH MID LEVEL INSTABILITY TO WARRANT ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION
OVERNIGHT AS WELL. WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES IN THE NORTH MAY SEE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IF PRECIPITATION PUSHES FAR ENOUGH EAST...THOUGH WILL
LEAVE MENTION OUT ATTM AS BELIEVE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN WHEN PRECIPITATION STARTS.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

THE WEEKEND WILL BE A WET ONE ACROSS THE CWA WITH A COUPLE OF
ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST WILL BE IN THE REGION EARLY FRIDAY
AND WILL BE DRIVEN INITIALLY BY GOOD WAA/THETA-E
ADVECTION...PRIMARILY ABOVE THE SURFACE AROUND 850MB...AND QUICKLY
FOLLOWED BY A VORT MAX FROM A SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH AHEAD OF
THE IMPENDING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE FROM THE MORE GRADUAL LIFT OF THE WAA AND
LIKELY HEAVIER WHEN THE VORT MAX AND BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH A
SHORT WHILE LATER. THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED STORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH A LITTLE BIT OF ELEVATED CAPE...BUT WAS HELD OUT OF
THE FORECAST FOR THE TIME BEING GIVE ITS UNDERWHELMING NATURE.

EARLY SATURDAY WILL BEGIN THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION AND
WILL BE DRIVEN BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING
ITS WAY OFF THE ROCKIES AND INTO KANSAS. THE LOW SHOULD PASS JUST
SOUTH OF IOWA AND MAY CLIP SOUTHEAST IOWA AS IT PASSES. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AND EVEN LIKELY IN THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH ELEVATED CAPE
VALUES AROUND 1000J/KG AND MARGINAL SHEAR. WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED...A FEW MAY BE SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY
CONCERN BEING HAIL AND WINDS. THE REST OF THE STATE WILL BE
COOL...IF NOT COLD...AND DREARY AS THEY CONSTANT OVERCAST SKIES
AND PRECIPITATION WHILE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND SECTION OF THE
LOW AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. TOTALS MAY EASILY
EXCEED AN INCH ON SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH WHERE STORMS
MAY BE PRESENT.

AFTER THE LOW QUICKLY EXITS THE REGION LATE SATURDAY AND INTO
SUNDAY...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL SET IN AND CLEAR SKIES OUT SUNDAY
AND INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WEAK AND
GENERALLY OUT OF THE NORTHEAST THROUGH MIDWEEK...HELPING KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES SEASONABLE AND IN THE 60S. MIDWEEK THE MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ONTO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT SHOOTS SOUTH
THROUGH WESTERN IOWA LATE TUESDAY AND MAY PROVIDE A QUICK SHOT OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT PRECIPITATION...BUT THE PRECIPITATION LOOKS
UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT. BY THURSDAY WE SHOULD FINALLY GET SITUATED
UNDERNEATH A RIDGE RATHER THAN SITTING IN NORTHWEST FLOW AS HAS
BEEN COMMON OF LATE. WITH THE RIDGE OVERHEAD...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
RETURN AND TEMPERATURES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S
AND POSSIBLY BEYOND FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHERLY NEAR 00Z.
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN IOWA BY END OF PERIOD WITH
WINDS INCREASING. SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WESTERN SITES KFOD/KDSM
BY END OF PERIOD. WITH SHRA MAY SEE MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES THOUGH HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION ATTM DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 231736
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1236 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND BE OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.  LIGHT
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
THE STATE BY EVENING.  AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS FORMED OVER
WESTERN IA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WAA.  EXPECT THEM TO PERSIST FOR A
FEW HOURS YET...BUT GRADUALLY BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER AND FASTER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...FORCING IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL IOWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY THIS I DID BRING POPS INTO
WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE FORCING WILL PROBABLY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS. BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS IOWA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION WITH THE NAM AND GFS TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA
WHILE THE EURO TRACKS IT FURTHER SOUTH. INSTABILITY...WHICH WAS
MINIMAL TO NON-EXISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IS NOW INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA TO SOME EXTENT...STILL VARYING WITH MODELS TIED TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW. DURING THE EVENING HOURS OF FRIDAY WE
WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWA WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND WORDING IN THE ZONES AND HWO PRODUCTS WERE ENHANCED SOME
TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT
THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. RIDGING THEN
MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY FOR A DRIER AND WARMER PERIOD.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EURO STILL
HOLDING ON TO RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE GFS AND NOW THE CANADIAN HOLD ON
SOMEWHAT TO THE GFS`S SOLUTIONS OF A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A STRONG NORTHERN PLAINS
LOW DROPPING TO THE SOUTH JUST WEST OF IOWA AND GETTING INGESTED
INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT NOW INSTEAD
OF THE FUJIWARA EFFECT THAT THE GFS HAD YESTERDAY THE INGESTING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW KICKS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MORE TO THE
EAST NOW. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS HAVE AT LEAST FEASIBLE SOLUTIONS
BUT THE EURO WOULD BE DRIER AND AT LEAST AT THIS POINT IS MORE
CONSISTENT. FOR NOW...DUE TO SMALLER CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER IOWA
AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS I DID LEAVE POPS VIRTUALLY OUT
OF THE EXTENDED BUT THE REALITY WILL BE ONCE THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION...SOME POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED BACK
AT SOME POINT. JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE JUST WHERE AT THIS
POINT AND KEEPING ENDLESS 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST THAT FAR OUT
DOES NOT DO THE FORECAST JUSTICE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR FOR BEGINNING OF PERIOD.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...BECOMING SOUTHERLY NEAR 00Z.
BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST INTO WESTERN IOWA BY END OF PERIOD WITH
WINDS INCREASING. SHRA WILL BE POSSIBLE AT WESTERN SITES KFOD/KDSM
BY END OF PERIOD. WITH SHRA MAY SEE MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES THOUGH HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION ATTM DUE TO
UNCERTAINTIES IN TIMING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS APR 15
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 231135
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND BE OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.  LIGHT
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
THE STATE BY EVENING.  AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS FORMED OVER
WESTERN IA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WAA.  EXPECT THEM TO PERSIST FOR A
FEW HOURS YET...BUT GRADUALLY BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER AND FASTER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...FORCING IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL IOWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY THIS I DID BRING POPS INTO
WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE FORCING WILL PROBABLY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS. BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS IOWA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION WITH THE NAM AND GFS TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA
WHILE THE EURO TRACKS IT FURTHER SOUTH. INSTABILITY...WHICH WAS
MINIMAL TO NON-EXISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IS NOW INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA TO SOME EXTENT...STILL VARYING WITH MODELS TIED TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW. DURING THE EVENING HOURS OF FRIDAY WE
WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWAWHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND WORDING IN THE ZONES AND HWO PRODUCTS WERE ENHANCED SOME
TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT
THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. RIDGING THEN
MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY FOR A DRIER AND WARMER PERIOD.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EURO STILL
HOLDING ON TO RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE GFS AND NOW THE CANADIAN HOLD ON
SOMEWHAT TO THE GFS`S SOLUTIONS OF A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A STRONG NORTHERN PLAINS
LOW DROPPING TO THE SOUTH JUST WEST OF IOWA AND GETTING INGESTED
INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT NOW INSTEAD
OF THE FUJIWARA EFFECT THAT THE GFS HAD YESTERDAY THE INGESTING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW KICKS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MORE TO THE
EAST NOW. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS HAVE AT LEAST FEASIBLE SOLUTIONS
BUT THE EURO WOULD BE DRIER AND AT LEAST AT THIS POINT IS MORE
CONSISTENT. FOR NOW...DUE TO SMALLER CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER IOWA
AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS I DID LEAVE POPS VIRTUALLY OUT
OF THE EXTENDED BUT THE REALITY WILL BE ONCE THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION...SOME POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED BACK
AT SOME POINT. JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE JUST WHERE AT THIS
POINT AND KEEPING ENDLESS 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST THAT FAR OUT
DOES NOT DO THE FORECAST JUSTICE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/12Z
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE FROM MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE LOWER
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST WITH LIGHT FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE ROCKIES AND
SPREAD DETERIORATING CONDITIONS INTO WESTERN IOWA AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES
WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DAVIS-
DECATUR-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS APR 15
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...MS APR 15





000
FXUS63 KDMX 231135
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND BE OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.  LIGHT
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
THE STATE BY EVENING.  AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS FORMED OVER
WESTERN IA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WAA.  EXPECT THEM TO PERSIST FOR A
FEW HOURS YET...BUT GRADUALLY BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER AND FASTER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...FORCING IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL IOWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY THIS I DID BRING POPS INTO
WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE FORCING WILL PROBABLY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS. BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS IOWA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION WITH THE NAM AND GFS TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA
WHILE THE EURO TRACKS IT FURTHER SOUTH. INSTABILITY...WHICH WAS
MINIMAL TO NON-EXISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IS NOW INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA TO SOME EXTENT...STILL VARYING WITH MODELS TIED TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW. DURING THE EVENING HOURS OF FRIDAY WE
WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERN
IOWAWHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND WORDING IN THE ZONES AND HWO PRODUCTS WERE ENHANCED SOME
TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT
THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. RIDGING THEN
MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY FOR A DRIER AND WARMER PERIOD.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EURO STILL
HOLDING ON TO RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE GFS AND NOW THE CANADIAN HOLD ON
SOMEWHAT TO THE GFS`S SOLUTIONS OF A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A STRONG NORTHERN PLAINS
LOW DROPPING TO THE SOUTH JUST WEST OF IOWA AND GETTING INGESTED
INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT NOW INSTEAD
OF THE FUJIWARA EFFECT THAT THE GFS HAD YESTERDAY THE INGESTING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW KICKS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MORE TO THE
EAST NOW. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS HAVE AT LEAST FEASIBLE SOLUTIONS
BUT THE EURO WOULD BE DRIER AND AT LEAST AT THIS POINT IS MORE
CONSISTENT. FOR NOW...DUE TO SMALLER CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER IOWA
AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS I DID LEAVE POPS VIRTUALLY OUT
OF THE EXTENDED BUT THE REALITY WILL BE ONCE THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION...SOME POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED BACK
AT SOME POINT. JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE JUST WHERE AT THIS
POINT AND KEEPING ENDLESS 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST THAT FAR OUT
DOES NOT DO THE FORECAST JUSTICE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/12Z
ISSUED AT 632 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE FROM MANITOBA AND WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE LOWER
TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL MOVE EAST WITH LIGHT FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN THE ROCKIES AND
SPREAD DETERIORATING CONDITIONS INTO WESTERN IOWA AFTER 06Z.

OUTLOOK...LARGE AREA OF RAIN AND STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE SITES
WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING
IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DAVIS-
DECATUR-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS APR 15
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...MS APR 15




000
FXUS63 KDMX 230908
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
408 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND BE OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.  LIGHT
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
THE STATE BY EVENING.  AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS FORMED OVER
WESTERN IA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WAA.  EXPECT THEM TO PERSIST FOR A
FEW HOURS YET...BUT GRADUALLY BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER AND FASTER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...FORCING IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL IOWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY THIS I DID BRING POPS INTO
WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE FORCING WILL PROBABLY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS. BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS IOWA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION WITH THE NAM AND GFS TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA
WHILE THE EURO TRACKS IT FURTHER SOUTH. INSTABILITY...WHICH WAS
MINIMAL TO NON-EXISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IS NOW INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA TO SOME EXTENT...STILL VARYING WITH MODELS TIED TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW. DURING THE EVENING HOURS OF FRIDAY WE
WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERNIOWA
WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND WORDING IN THE ZONES AND HWO PRODUCTS WERE ENHANCED SOME
TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT
THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. RIDGING THEN
MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY FOR A DRIER AND WARMER PERIOD.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EURO STILL
HOLDING ON TO RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE GFS AND NOW THE CANADIAN HOLD ON
SOMEWHAT TO THE GFS`S SOLUTIONS OF A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A STRONG NORTHERN PLAINS
LOW DROPPING TO THE SOUTH JUST WEST OF IOWA AND GETTING INGESTED
INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT NOW INSTEAD
OF THE FUJIWARA EFFECT THAT THE GFS HAD YESTERDAY THE INGESTING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW KICKS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MORE TO THE
EAST NOW. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS HAVE AT LEAST FEASIBLE SOLUTIONS
BUT THE EURO WOULD BE DRIER AND AT LEAST AT THIS POINT IS MORE
CONSISTENT. FOR NOW...DUE TO SMALLER CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER IOWA
AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS I DID LEAVE POPS VIRTUALLY OUT
OF THE EXTENDED BUT THE REALITY WILL BE ONCE THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION...SOME POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED BACK
AT SOME POINT. JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE JUST WHERE AT THIS
POINT AND KEEPING ENDLESS 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST THAT FAR OUT
DOES NOT DO THE FORECAST JUSTICE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH DAY THEN
DIMINISHING BY 00Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DAVIS-
DECATUR-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 230908
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
408 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND BE OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.  LIGHT
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
THE STATE BY EVENING.  AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS FORMED OVER
WESTERN IA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WAA.  EXPECT THEM TO PERSIST FOR A
FEW HOURS YET...BUT GRADUALLY BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER AND FASTER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...FORCING IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL IOWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY THIS I DID BRING POPS INTO
WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE FORCING WILL PROBABLY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS. BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS IOWA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION WITH THE NAM AND GFS TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA
WHILE THE EURO TRACKS IT FURTHER SOUTH. INSTABILITY...WHICH WAS
MINIMAL TO NON-EXISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IS NOW INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA TO SOME EXTENT...STILL VARYING WITH MODELS TIED TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW. DURING THE EVENING HOURS OF FRIDAY WE
WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERNIOWA
WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND WORDING IN THE ZONES AND HWO PRODUCTS WERE ENHANCED SOME
TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT
THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. RIDGING THEN
MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY FOR A DRIER AND WARMER PERIOD.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EURO STILL
HOLDING ON TO RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE GFS AND NOW THE CANADIAN HOLD ON
SOMEWHAT TO THE GFS`S SOLUTIONS OF A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A STRONG NORTHERN PLAINS
LOW DROPPING TO THE SOUTH JUST WEST OF IOWA AND GETTING INGESTED
INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT NOW INSTEAD
OF THE FUJIWARA EFFECT THAT THE GFS HAD YESTERDAY THE INGESTING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW KICKS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MORE TO THE
EAST NOW. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS HAVE AT LEAST FEASIBLE SOLUTIONS
BUT THE EURO WOULD BE DRIER AND AT LEAST AT THIS POINT IS MORE
CONSISTENT. FOR NOW...DUE TO SMALLER CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER IOWA
AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS I DID LEAVE POPS VIRTUALLY OUT
OF THE EXTENDED BUT THE REALITY WILL BE ONCE THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION...SOME POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED BACK
AT SOME POINT. JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE JUST WHERE AT THIS
POINT AND KEEPING ENDLESS 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST THAT FAR OUT
DOES NOT DO THE FORECAST JUSTICE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH DAY THEN
DIMINISHING BY 00Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DAVIS-
DECATUR-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 230908
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
408 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND BE OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.  LIGHT
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
THE STATE BY EVENING.  AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS FORMED OVER
WESTERN IA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WAA.  EXPECT THEM TO PERSIST FOR A
FEW HOURS YET...BUT GRADUALLY BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER AND FASTER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...FORCING IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL IOWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY THIS I DID BRING POPS INTO
WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE FORCING WILL PROBABLY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS. BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS IOWA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION WITH THE NAM AND GFS TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA
WHILE THE EURO TRACKS IT FURTHER SOUTH. INSTABILITY...WHICH WAS
MINIMAL TO NON-EXISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IS NOW INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA TO SOME EXTENT...STILL VARYING WITH MODELS TIED TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW. DURING THE EVENING HOURS OF FRIDAY WE
WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERNIOWA
WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND WORDING IN THE ZONES AND HWO PRODUCTS WERE ENHANCED SOME
TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT
THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. RIDGING THEN
MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY FOR A DRIER AND WARMER PERIOD.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EURO STILL
HOLDING ON TO RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE GFS AND NOW THE CANADIAN HOLD ON
SOMEWHAT TO THE GFS`S SOLUTIONS OF A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A STRONG NORTHERN PLAINS
LOW DROPPING TO THE SOUTH JUST WEST OF IOWA AND GETTING INGESTED
INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT NOW INSTEAD
OF THE FUJIWARA EFFECT THAT THE GFS HAD YESTERDAY THE INGESTING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW KICKS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MORE TO THE
EAST NOW. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS HAVE AT LEAST FEASIBLE SOLUTIONS
BUT THE EURO WOULD BE DRIER AND AT LEAST AT THIS POINT IS MORE
CONSISTENT. FOR NOW...DUE TO SMALLER CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER IOWA
AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS I DID LEAVE POPS VIRTUALLY OUT
OF THE EXTENDED BUT THE REALITY WILL BE ONCE THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION...SOME POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED BACK
AT SOME POINT. JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE JUST WHERE AT THIS
POINT AND KEEPING ENDLESS 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST THAT FAR OUT
DOES NOT DO THE FORECAST JUSTICE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH DAY THEN
DIMINISHING BY 00Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DAVIS-
DECATUR-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 230908
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
408 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT EAST TODAY AND BE OVER
WESTERN ONTARIO INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY THIS EVENING.  LIGHT
WINDS TODAY WILL BECOME LIGHT SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE
THE STATE BY EVENING.  AN AREA OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS HAS FORMED OVER
WESTERN IA IN RESPONSE TO WEAK WAA.  EXPECT THEM TO PERSIST FOR A
FEW HOURS YET...BUT GRADUALLY BREAK UP AFTER SUNRISE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 347 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE STRONGER AND FASTER TONIGHT THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST. IN ADDITION...FORCING IS PROGGED TO MOVE INTO MUCH OF
CENTRAL IOWA BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z FRIDAY THIS I DID BRING POPS INTO
WESTERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...THE FORCING WILL PROBABLY BE
ENOUGH FOR SOME ISOLATED STORMS. BY LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT A
SHORTWAVE WILL BE PASSING ACROSS IOWA AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE LOCATION AND TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW IS STILL IN
QUESTION WITH THE NAM AND GFS TRACKING IT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA
WHILE THE EURO TRACKS IT FURTHER SOUTH. INSTABILITY...WHICH WAS
MINIMAL TO NON-EXISTENT WITH PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS IS NOW INTO
SOUTHERN IOWA TO SOME EXTENT...STILL VARYING WITH MODELS TIED TO
THE LOCATION OF THE LOW. DURING THE EVENING HOURS OF FRIDAY WE
WILL ALSO HAVE SOME WEAK TO MODERATE SHEAR PRESENT ACROSS SOUTHERNIOWA
WHICH WOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF AT LEAST A FEW STRONGER
STORMS...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE MARGINALLY
SEVERE HAIL. AS A RESULT...POPS WERE INCREASED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH AND WORDING IN THE ZONES AND HWO PRODUCTS WERE ENHANCED SOME
TO COVER THIS POSSIBILITY.

BY SATURDAY MORNING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE FAR ENOUGH EAST THAT
THE THREAT FOR STORMS WILL BE DIMINISHING BUT LINGERING PRECIP
CHANCES WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. RIDGING THEN
MOVES IN FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY FOR A DRIER AND WARMER PERIOD.

BEYOND MONDAY MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EURO STILL
HOLDING ON TO RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THAT SWEEPS ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST WITH LITTLE FANFARE. THE GFS AND NOW THE CANADIAN HOLD ON
SOMEWHAT TO THE GFS`S SOLUTIONS OF A STRONG SOUTHERN STREAM LOW
MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WITH A STRONG NORTHERN PLAINS
LOW DROPPING TO THE SOUTH JUST WEST OF IOWA AND GETTING INGESTED
INTO THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW. THE DIFFERENCE IS THAT NOW INSTEAD
OF THE FUJIWARA EFFECT THAT THE GFS HAD YESTERDAY THE INGESTING OF
THE NORTHERN STREAM LOW KICKS THE SOUTHERN STREAM LOW MORE TO THE
EAST NOW. BOTH THE EURO AND GFS HAVE AT LEAST FEASIBLE SOLUTIONS
BUT THE EURO WOULD BE DRIER AND AT LEAST AT THIS POINT IS MORE
CONSISTENT. FOR NOW...DUE TO SMALLER CHANCES FOR PRECIP OVER IOWA
AND THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODELS I DID LEAVE POPS VIRTUALLY OUT
OF THE EXTENDED BUT THE REALITY WILL BE ONCE THE MODELS CONVERGE
ON A MORE SIMILAR SOLUTION...SOME POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADDED BACK
AT SOME POINT. JUST TOO DIFFICULT TO DETERMINE JUST WHERE AT THIS
POINT AND KEEPING ENDLESS 20 POPS IN THE FORECAST THAT FAR OUT
DOES NOT DO THE FORECAST JUSTICE.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH DAY THEN
DIMINISHING BY 00Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DAVIS-
DECATUR-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-WAPELLO-
WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 230353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1053 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

WILL ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. WINDS WILL
RELAX AND BOUNDARY LAYER GUSTS WILL DECOUPLE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. /REV

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SFC PRES GRADIENT
LOOSENING...WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET
WITH DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
IN PLACE...AND COOL AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS
OF THE WEEK. HAVE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AT FREEZING OR BELOW...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST IN THE TIME OF YEAR FOR THE AVERAGE LAST
FREEZE. THEREFORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF FOR A FREEZE
AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH EARLY APRIL WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
THESE TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST MAY OCCUR...BUT THE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THURSDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WITH THAT
SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE...WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER AND
NEAR CALM AT TIMES AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WHILE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE WITH AN EXTRA BOOST FROM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...THOUGH IT IS LOOKING UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY...AND VERY
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
WHERE THE GREATEST AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKELY THAT MUCH OF IOWA WILL SEE LIGHT PRECIP WITH SOLID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA AT AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INTO KANSAS. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND EURO MODELS ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE LOW...MAKING IT CUTOFF...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE RESERVED. HEDGING TOWARDS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WOULD
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OR MORE.
LIFT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH SOLID VORTICITY AND THE FACT THAT
WE WILL BE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THE LOW AS IT
PASSES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH. THUNDER WILL BE HELD OUT OF THE
FORECAST SATURDAY AS WE WILL BE SITTING WITHIN THAT COOL REGION AS
WELL AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 200 OR LESS ARE UNDERWHELMING.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST IS RATHER MUNDANE. WE WILL CLEAR
OUT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN...BUT NEVER RETURNS US TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SLOW MOVING RIDGE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAIRLY WEAK AND BROAD
NORTHWEST AND WEST FLOW THE ENTIRE TIME. SOME DOWN SLOPE WARMING
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT INTO
THE 60S...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE
WEEKEND APPEARS SPARSE AS WELL WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WAVES TO SPEAK OF...THOUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA MAY SEE A
SHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH DAY THEN
DIMINISHING BY 00Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-
UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 230353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1053 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

WILL ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. WINDS WILL
RELAX AND BOUNDARY LAYER GUSTS WILL DECOUPLE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. /REV

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SFC PRES GRADIENT
LOOSENING...WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET
WITH DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
IN PLACE...AND COOL AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS
OF THE WEEK. HAVE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AT FREEZING OR BELOW...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST IN THE TIME OF YEAR FOR THE AVERAGE LAST
FREEZE. THEREFORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF FOR A FREEZE
AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH EARLY APRIL WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
THESE TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST MAY OCCUR...BUT THE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THURSDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WITH THAT
SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE...WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER AND
NEAR CALM AT TIMES AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WHILE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE WITH AN EXTRA BOOST FROM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...THOUGH IT IS LOOKING UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY...AND VERY
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
WHERE THE GREATEST AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKELY THAT MUCH OF IOWA WILL SEE LIGHT PRECIP WITH SOLID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA AT AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INTO KANSAS. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND EURO MODELS ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE LOW...MAKING IT CUTOFF...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE RESERVED. HEDGING TOWARDS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WOULD
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OR MORE.
LIFT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH SOLID VORTICITY AND THE FACT THAT
WE WILL BE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THE LOW AS IT
PASSES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH. THUNDER WILL BE HELD OUT OF THE
FORECAST SATURDAY AS WE WILL BE SITTING WITHIN THAT COOL REGION AS
WELL AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 200 OR LESS ARE UNDERWHELMING.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST IS RATHER MUNDANE. WE WILL CLEAR
OUT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN...BUT NEVER RETURNS US TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SLOW MOVING RIDGE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAIRLY WEAK AND BROAD
NORTHWEST AND WEST FLOW THE ENTIRE TIME. SOME DOWN SLOPE WARMING
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT INTO
THE 60S...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE
WEEKEND APPEARS SPARSE AS WELL WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WAVES TO SPEAK OF...THOUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA MAY SEE A
SHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1035 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CONDITIONS WITH WINDS INCREASING ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH DAY THEN
DIMINISHING BY 00Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-
UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 222332
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
632 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

WILL ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. WINDS WILL
RELAX AND BOUNDARY LAYER GUSTS WILL DECOUPLE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. /REV

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SFC PRES GRADIENT
LOOSENING...WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET
WITH DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
IN PLACE...AND COOL AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS
OF THE WEEK. HAVE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AT FREEZING OR BELOW...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST IN THE TIME OF YEAR FOR THE AVERAGE LAST
FREEZE. THEREFORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF FOR A FREEZE
AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH EARLY APRIL WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
THESE TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST MAY OCCUR...BUT THE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THURSDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WITH THAT
SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE...WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER AND
NEAR CALM AT TIMES AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WHILE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE WITH AN EXTRA BOOST FROM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...THOUGH IT IS LOOKING UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY...AND VERY
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
WHERE THE GREATEST AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKELY THAT MUCH OF IOWA WILL SEE LIGHT PRECIP WITH SOLID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA AT AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INTO KANSAS. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND EURO MODELS ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE LOW...MAKING IT CUTOFF...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE RESERVED. HEDGING TOWARDS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WOULD
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OR MORE.
LIFT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH SOLID VORTICITY AND THE FACT THAT
WE WILL BE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THE LOW AS IT
PASSES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH. THUNDER WILL BE HELD OUT OF THE
FORECAST SATURDAY AS WE WILL BE SITTING WITHIN THAT COOL REGION AS
WELL AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 200 OR LESS ARE UNDERWHELMING.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST IS RATHER MUNDANE. WE WILL CLEAR
OUT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN...BUT NEVER RETURNS US TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SLOW MOVING RIDGE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAIRLY WEAK AND BROAD
NORTHWEST AND WEST FLOW THE ENTIRE TIME. SOME DOWN SLOPE WARMING
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT INTO
THE 60S...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE
WEEKEND APPEARS SPARSE AS WELL WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WAVES TO SPEAK OF...THOUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA MAY SEE A
SHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...23/00Z
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

STRONG NW FLOW WILL RELAX THIS EVENING WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXING
ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AFT 16Z THURSDAY...OTHERWISE FEW|SCT060
OR HIGHER THROUGH 23Z THEN LIGHT WSW WINDS./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-
UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 222332
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
632 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

WILL ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. WINDS WILL
RELAX AND BOUNDARY LAYER GUSTS WILL DECOUPLE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. /REV

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SFC PRES GRADIENT
LOOSENING...WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET
WITH DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
IN PLACE...AND COOL AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS
OF THE WEEK. HAVE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AT FREEZING OR BELOW...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST IN THE TIME OF YEAR FOR THE AVERAGE LAST
FREEZE. THEREFORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF FOR A FREEZE
AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH EARLY APRIL WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
THESE TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST MAY OCCUR...BUT THE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THURSDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WITH THAT
SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE...WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER AND
NEAR CALM AT TIMES AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WHILE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE WITH AN EXTRA BOOST FROM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...THOUGH IT IS LOOKING UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY...AND VERY
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
WHERE THE GREATEST AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKELY THAT MUCH OF IOWA WILL SEE LIGHT PRECIP WITH SOLID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA AT AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INTO KANSAS. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND EURO MODELS ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE LOW...MAKING IT CUTOFF...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE RESERVED. HEDGING TOWARDS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WOULD
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OR MORE.
LIFT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH SOLID VORTICITY AND THE FACT THAT
WE WILL BE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THE LOW AS IT
PASSES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH. THUNDER WILL BE HELD OUT OF THE
FORECAST SATURDAY AS WE WILL BE SITTING WITHIN THAT COOL REGION AS
WELL AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 200 OR LESS ARE UNDERWHELMING.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST IS RATHER MUNDANE. WE WILL CLEAR
OUT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN...BUT NEVER RETURNS US TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SLOW MOVING RIDGE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAIRLY WEAK AND BROAD
NORTHWEST AND WEST FLOW THE ENTIRE TIME. SOME DOWN SLOPE WARMING
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT INTO
THE 60S...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE
WEEKEND APPEARS SPARSE AS WELL WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WAVES TO SPEAK OF...THOUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA MAY SEE A
SHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...23/00Z
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

STRONG NW FLOW WILL RELAX THIS EVENING WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXING
ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AFT 16Z THURSDAY...OTHERWISE FEW|SCT060
OR HIGHER THROUGH 23Z THEN LIGHT WSW WINDS./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-
UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 222332
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
632 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

WILL ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. WINDS WILL
RELAX AND BOUNDARY LAYER GUSTS WILL DECOUPLE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. /REV

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SFC PRES GRADIENT
LOOSENING...WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET
WITH DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
IN PLACE...AND COOL AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS
OF THE WEEK. HAVE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AT FREEZING OR BELOW...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST IN THE TIME OF YEAR FOR THE AVERAGE LAST
FREEZE. THEREFORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF FOR A FREEZE
AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH EARLY APRIL WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
THESE TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST MAY OCCUR...BUT THE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THURSDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WITH THAT
SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE...WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER AND
NEAR CALM AT TIMES AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WHILE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE WITH AN EXTRA BOOST FROM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...THOUGH IT IS LOOKING UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY...AND VERY
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
WHERE THE GREATEST AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKELY THAT MUCH OF IOWA WILL SEE LIGHT PRECIP WITH SOLID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA AT AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INTO KANSAS. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND EURO MODELS ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE LOW...MAKING IT CUTOFF...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE RESERVED. HEDGING TOWARDS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WOULD
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OR MORE.
LIFT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH SOLID VORTICITY AND THE FACT THAT
WE WILL BE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THE LOW AS IT
PASSES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH. THUNDER WILL BE HELD OUT OF THE
FORECAST SATURDAY AS WE WILL BE SITTING WITHIN THAT COOL REGION AS
WELL AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 200 OR LESS ARE UNDERWHELMING.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST IS RATHER MUNDANE. WE WILL CLEAR
OUT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN...BUT NEVER RETURNS US TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SLOW MOVING RIDGE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAIRLY WEAK AND BROAD
NORTHWEST AND WEST FLOW THE ENTIRE TIME. SOME DOWN SLOPE WARMING
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT INTO
THE 60S...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE
WEEKEND APPEARS SPARSE AS WELL WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WAVES TO SPEAK OF...THOUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA MAY SEE A
SHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...23/00Z
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

STRONG NW FLOW WILL RELAX THIS EVENING WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXING
ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AFT 16Z THURSDAY...OTHERWISE FEW|SCT060
OR HIGHER THROUGH 23Z THEN LIGHT WSW WINDS./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-
UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 222332
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
632 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

WILL ALLOW WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM. WINDS WILL
RELAX AND BOUNDARY LAYER GUSTS WILL DECOUPLE NEXT HOUR
OR SO. /REV

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SFC PRES GRADIENT
LOOSENING...WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET
WITH DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
IN PLACE...AND COOL AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS
OF THE WEEK. HAVE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AT FREEZING OR BELOW...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST IN THE TIME OF YEAR FOR THE AVERAGE LAST
FREEZE. THEREFORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF FOR A FREEZE
AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH EARLY APRIL WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
THESE TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST MAY OCCUR...BUT THE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THURSDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WITH THAT
SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE...WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER AND
NEAR CALM AT TIMES AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WHILE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE WITH AN EXTRA BOOST FROM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...THOUGH IT IS LOOKING UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY...AND VERY
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
WHERE THE GREATEST AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKELY THAT MUCH OF IOWA WILL SEE LIGHT PRECIP WITH SOLID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA AT AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INTO KANSAS. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND EURO MODELS ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE LOW...MAKING IT CUTOFF...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE RESERVED. HEDGING TOWARDS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WOULD
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OR MORE.
LIFT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH SOLID VORTICITY AND THE FACT THAT
WE WILL BE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THE LOW AS IT
PASSES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH. THUNDER WILL BE HELD OUT OF THE
FORECAST SATURDAY AS WE WILL BE SITTING WITHIN THAT COOL REGION AS
WELL AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 200 OR LESS ARE UNDERWHELMING.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST IS RATHER MUNDANE. WE WILL CLEAR
OUT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN...BUT NEVER RETURNS US TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SLOW MOVING RIDGE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAIRLY WEAK AND BROAD
NORTHWEST AND WEST FLOW THE ENTIRE TIME. SOME DOWN SLOPE WARMING
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT INTO
THE 60S...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE
WEEKEND APPEARS SPARSE AS WELL WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WAVES TO SPEAK OF...THOUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA MAY SEE A
SHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...23/00Z
ISSUED AT 628 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

STRONG NW FLOW WILL RELAX THIS EVENING WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY WITH SOME MIXING
ACROSS THE EAST/SOUTHEAST AFT 16Z THURSDAY...OTHERWISE FEW|SCT060
OR HIGHER THROUGH 23Z THEN LIGHT WSW WINDS./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-
UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 222031
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
331 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SFC PRES GRADIENT
LOOSENING...WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET
WITH DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
IN PLACE...AND COOL AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS
OF THE WEEK. HAVE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AT FREEZING OR BELOW...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST IN THE TIME OF YEAR FOR THE AVERAGE LAST
FREEZE. THEREFORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF FOR A FREEZE
AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH EARLY APRIL WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
THESE TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST MAY OCCUR...BUT THE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THURSDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WITH THAT
SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE...WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER AND
NEAR CALM AT TIMES AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WHILE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE WITH AN EXTRA BOOST FROM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...THOUGH IT IS LOOKING UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY...AND VERY
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
WHERE THE GREATEST AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKELY THAT MUCH OF IOWA WILL SEE LIGHT PRECIP WITH SOLID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA AT AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INTO KANSAS. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND EURO MODELS ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE LOW...MAKING IT CUTOFF...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE RESERVED. HEDGING TOWARDS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WOULD
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OR MORE.
LIFT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH SOLID VORTICITY AND THE FACT THAT
WE WILL BE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THE LOW AS IT
PASSES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH. THUNDER WILL BE HELD OUT OF THE
FORECAST SATURDAY AS WE WILL BE SITTING WITHIN THAT COOL REGION AS
WELL AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 200 OR LESS ARE UNDERWHELMING.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST IS RATHER MUNDANE. WE WILL CLEAR
OUT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN...BUT NEVER RETURNS US TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SLOW MOVING RIDGE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAIRLY WEAK AND BROAD
NORTHWEST AND WEST FLOW THE ENTIRE TIME. SOME DOWN SLOPE WARMING
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT INTO
THE 60S...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE
WEEKEND APPEARS SPARSE AS WELL WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WAVES TO SPEAK OF...THOUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA MAY SEE A
SHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. VFR CU FIELD POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FEW-SCT060.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-
UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-
BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POWESHIEK-
STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 222031
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
331 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SFC PRES GRADIENT
LOOSENING...WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET
WITH DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
IN PLACE...AND COOL AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS
OF THE WEEK. HAVE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AT FREEZING OR BELOW...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST IN THE TIME OF YEAR FOR THE AVERAGE LAST
FREEZE. THEREFORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF FOR A FREEZE
AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH EARLY APRIL WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
THESE TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST MAY OCCUR...BUT THE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THURSDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WITH THAT
SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE...WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER AND
NEAR CALM AT TIMES AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WHILE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE WITH AN EXTRA BOOST FROM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...THOUGH IT IS LOOKING UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY...AND VERY
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
WHERE THE GREATEST AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKELY THAT MUCH OF IOWA WILL SEE LIGHT PRECIP WITH SOLID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA AT AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INTO KANSAS. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND EURO MODELS ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE LOW...MAKING IT CUTOFF...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE RESERVED. HEDGING TOWARDS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WOULD
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OR MORE.
LIFT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH SOLID VORTICITY AND THE FACT THAT
WE WILL BE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THE LOW AS IT
PASSES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH. THUNDER WILL BE HELD OUT OF THE
FORECAST SATURDAY AS WE WILL BE SITTING WITHIN THAT COOL REGION AS
WELL AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 200 OR LESS ARE UNDERWHELMING.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST IS RATHER MUNDANE. WE WILL CLEAR
OUT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN...BUT NEVER RETURNS US TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SLOW MOVING RIDGE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAIRLY WEAK AND BROAD
NORTHWEST AND WEST FLOW THE ENTIRE TIME. SOME DOWN SLOPE WARMING
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT INTO
THE 60S...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE
WEEKEND APPEARS SPARSE AS WELL WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WAVES TO SPEAK OF...THOUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA MAY SEE A
SHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. VFR CU FIELD POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FEW-SCT060.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM CDT THURSDAY FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-
UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-
BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POWESHIEK-
STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 222015
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
315 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SFC PRES GRADIENT
LOOSENING...WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET
WITH DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
IN PLACE...AND COOL AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS
OF THE WEEK. HAVE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AT FREEZING OR BELOW...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST IN THE TIME OF YEAR FOR THE AVERAGE LAST
FREEZE. THEREFORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF FOR A FREEZE
AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH EARLY APRIL WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
THESE TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST MAY OCCUR...BUT THE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THURSDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WITH THAT
SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE...WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER AND
NEAR CALM AT TIMES AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WHILE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE WITH AN EXTRA BOOST FROM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...THOUGH IT IS LOOKING UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY...AND VERY
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
WHERE THE GREATEST AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKELY THAT MUCH OF IOWA WILL SEE LIGHT PRECIP WITH SOLID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA AT AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INTO KANSAS. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND EURO MODELS ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE LOW...MAKING IT CUTOFF...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE RESERVED. HEDGING TOWARDS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WOULD
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OR MORE.
LIFT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH SOLID VORTICITY AND THE FACT THAT
WE WILL BE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THE LOW AS IT
PASSES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH. THUNDER WILL BE HELD OUT OF THE
FORECAST SATURDAY AS WE WILL BE SITTING WITHIN THAT COOL REGION AS
WELL AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 200 OR LESS ARE UNDERWHELMING.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST IS RATHER MUNDANE. WE WILL CLEAR
OUT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN...BUT NEVER RETURNS US TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SLOW MOVING RIDGE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAIRLY WEAK AND BROAD
NORTHWEST AND WEST FLOW THE ENTIRE TIME. SOME DOWN SLOPE WARMING
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT INTO
THE 60S...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE
WEEKEND APPEARS SPARSE AS WELL WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WAVES TO SPEAK OF...THOUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA MAY SEE A
SHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. VFR CU FIELD POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FEW-SCT060.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-
BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POWESHIEK-
STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 222015
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
315 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

HIGH PRESSURE TO MOVE OVERHEAD WITH SFC PRES GRADIENT
LOOSENING...WITH THE STRONG WINDS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET
WITH DECOUPLING. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGH
IN PLACE...AND COOL AIR SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPS
OF THE WEEK. HAVE MAJORITY OF THE CWA AT FREEZING OR BELOW...WITH
MUCH OF THE AREA JUST IN THE TIME OF YEAR FOR THE AVERAGE LAST
FREEZE. THEREFORE CLIMATOLOGICALLY IT IS NOT UNHEARD OF FOR A FREEZE
AT THIS TIME...BUT GIVEN THE FACT WE HAVE BEEN WARMER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH EARLY APRIL WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FREEZE HEADLINE FOR
THESE TEMPERATURES. SOME FROST MAY OCCUR...BUT THE TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREAD SHOULD BE FAR ENOUGH THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS NOT
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 205 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THURSDAY`S WEATHER WILL BE DRIVEN BY A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE REGION. WITH THAT
SURFACE RIDGE IN PLACE...WINDS WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER AND
NEAR CALM AT TIMES AND SKIES WILL BE CLEAR WITH BROAD SUBSIDENCE
IN PLACE. WHILE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
MORNING...BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE WITH AN EXTRA BOOST FROM RADIATIONAL
COOLING...THOUGH IT IS LOOKING UNLIKELY AT THIS POINT.

PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKELY FOR FRIDAY...AND VERY
LIKELY FOR SATURDAY. FRIDAY WILL SEE CLOUD COVER AND PRECIP
CHANCES INCREASE EARLY IN THE DAY AS A SHORT WAVE PROPAGATES
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVELS. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT OVER
WHERE THE GREATEST AND BEST PRECIP CHANCES ARE...BUT IT LOOKS
LIKELY THAT MUCH OF IOWA WILL SEE LIGHT PRECIP WITH SOLID
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WAA AT AND JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...GENERALLY A
TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS IS EXPECTED. THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE
SATURDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE ROCKIES DEVELOPS AND
MOVES INTO KANSAS. THE GFS...CANADIAN AND EURO MODELS ARE MORE
BULLISH ON THE LOW...MAKING IT CUTOFF...WHILE THE NAM IS A BIT
MORE RESERVED. HEDGING TOWARDS THE MORE AGGRESSIVE MODELS WOULD
RESULT IN PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND A HALF INCH OR MORE.
LIFT SHOULD NOT BE AN ISSUE WITH SOLID VORTICITY AND THE FACT THAT
WE WILL BE SITTING IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF THE LOW AS IT
PASSES MOSTLY TO THE SOUTH. THUNDER WILL BE HELD OUT OF THE
FORECAST SATURDAY AS WE WILL BE SITTING WITHIN THAT COOL REGION AS
WELL AND MUCAPE VALUES OF 200 OR LESS ARE UNDERWHELMING.

BEYOND THE WEEKEND...THE FORECAST IS RATHER MUNDANE. WE WILL CLEAR
OUT AS A WEAK RIDGE BUILDS IN...BUT NEVER RETURNS US TO SOUTHERLY
FLOW. IT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A STRONGER SLOW MOVING RIDGE BY THE
END OF THE WEEK. THE REGION WILL REMAIN IN FAIRLY WEAK AND BROAD
NORTHWEST AND WEST FLOW THE ENTIRE TIME. SOME DOWN SLOPE WARMING
AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL HAVE TEMPERATURES REBOUND A BIT INTO
THE 60S...BUT NOT MUCH MORE THAN THAT FOR THE TIME BEING WITH THE
LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT SOUTHERLY FLOW. PRECIPITATION BEYOND THE
WEEKEND APPEARS SPARSE AS WELL WITH THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
EXPECTED TO PASS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND NO SIGNIFICANT
WAVES TO SPEAK OF...THOUGH PARTS OF SOUTHERN IOWA MAY SEE A
SHOWER OR TWO TUESDAY WITH PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. VFR CU FIELD POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FEW-SCT060.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-
BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POWESHIEK-
STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 221734
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

WINDS PICKING UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH SOUNDING SUGGESTING NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA CONTINUING TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH 25 TO 30 KT WINDS ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TOWARDS SUNSET WHEN
THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO LOOSEN AND WINDS DECOUPLE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY
WITH SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIXING DEPTH OF 6-8KFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE WITH WINDS OF 30-40KTS AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE...STILL ANTICIPATE A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN.
IT APPEARS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT QUITE AS TIGHT AND WINDS ARE NOT
AS STRONG THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS AND THEREFORE WILL FORGO ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD BELOW NORMAL WITH THERMAL TROF STARTING OUT ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL HAVE LITTLE CONCERN AS IOWA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE DEPARTING LARGE LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  WE WILL HAVE CONCERNS FOR FROST AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD AND NORTHWEST WINDS DROPPING OFF
TO AT OR BELOW 5 KTS. HOWEVER THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL HIT AN HOUR
OR SO BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL NOT LAST LONG AND BEING STILL FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE SEASON I HAVE OPTED NOT TO HEADLINE PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FROST ALTHOUGH IT IS IN THE GRIDS.

I WAS LESS IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE
BUT TONIGHT`S MODEL RUNS REALLY COME TOGETHER AND BRING A LARGE AREA
OF FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED ON SATURDAY BY A LOW AND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA SATURATE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY BUT THE STRONGEST FORCING IS NOT UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO THERE WILL BE TIMING OF THE START OF PRECIP
TO FORECAST BUT ITS A LITTLE TO FAR OUT FOR SPECIFICS ON THAT JUST
YET. HIGHEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE EITHER SO I AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD
ON THUNDERSTORMS YET BUT AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SOME INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.  ALSO WITH
AS STRONG AS THE FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE IT WILL NOT BE TOO
DIFFICULT TO GET A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.  AT THIS POINT THE
ISOLATED WORDING WE HAVE GOING IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE STATE SUNDAY FOR A BREAK IN
THE PRECIP AND SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE PUTTING IOWA IN RETURN FLOW.  THEN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
A TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME BUT BY THEN...DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...RIDGING STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
WEST.  THE GFS IS VERY UGLY LOOKING AND THIS FAR OUT...PROBABLY THE
LEAST BELIEVABLE.  THE GFS HAS A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THE NORTHERN LOW DROPS SOUTH AND BECOMES INGESTED IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WHICH FUJIWARA`S ACROSS ILLINOIS THEN RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY BACK WEST INTO EASTERN IOWA.  IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN WE
WOULD BE VERY WET FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.  FOR NOW THE EURO MODEL`S
SOLUTION LOOKS MUCH MORE FEASIBLE BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED AND
IF THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY VERIFY THEN POPS WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO BE INCREASED.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. VFR CU FIELD POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FEW-SCT060.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-
BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POWESHIEK-
STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 221734
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

WINDS PICKING UP SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
WITH SOUNDING SUGGESTING NEAR WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA TO WIND
ADVISORY CRITERIA CONTINUING TO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH 25 TO 30 KT WINDS ALOFT
EXPECTED TO MIX DOWN. THEREFORE HAVE ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE NORTHEAST HALF OF THE CWA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WINDS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA TOWARDS SUNSET WHEN
THE GRADIENT BEGINS TO LOOSEN AND WINDS DECOUPLE WITH HIGH
PRESSURE MOVING OVERHEAD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY
WITH SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIXING DEPTH OF 6-8KFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE WITH WINDS OF 30-40KTS AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE...STILL ANTICIPATE A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN.
IT APPEARS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT QUITE AS TIGHT AND WINDS ARE NOT
AS STRONG THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS AND THEREFORE WILL FORGO ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD BELOW NORMAL WITH THERMAL TROF STARTING OUT ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL HAVE LITTLE CONCERN AS IOWA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE DEPARTING LARGE LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  WE WILL HAVE CONCERNS FOR FROST AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD AND NORTHWEST WINDS DROPPING OFF
TO AT OR BELOW 5 KTS. HOWEVER THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL HIT AN HOUR
OR SO BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL NOT LAST LONG AND BEING STILL FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE SEASON I HAVE OPTED NOT TO HEADLINE PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FROST ALTHOUGH IT IS IN THE GRIDS.

I WAS LESS IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE
BUT TONIGHT`S MODEL RUNS REALLY COME TOGETHER AND BRING A LARGE AREA
OF FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED ON SATURDAY BY A LOW AND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA SATURATE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY BUT THE STRONGEST FORCING IS NOT UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO THERE WILL BE TIMING OF THE START OF PRECIP
TO FORECAST BUT ITS A LITTLE TO FAR OUT FOR SPECIFICS ON THAT JUST
YET. HIGHEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE EITHER SO I AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD
ON THUNDERSTORMS YET BUT AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SOME INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.  ALSO WITH
AS STRONG AS THE FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE IT WILL NOT BE TOO
DIFFICULT TO GET A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.  AT THIS POINT THE
ISOLATED WORDING WE HAVE GOING IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE STATE SUNDAY FOR A BREAK IN
THE PRECIP AND SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE PUTTING IOWA IN RETURN FLOW.  THEN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
A TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME BUT BY THEN...DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...RIDGING STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
WEST.  THE GFS IS VERY UGLY LOOKING AND THIS FAR OUT...PROBABLY THE
LEAST BELIEVABLE.  THE GFS HAS A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THE NORTHERN LOW DROPS SOUTH AND BECOMES INGESTED IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WHICH FUJIWARA`S ACROSS ILLINOIS THEN RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY BACK WEST INTO EASTERN IOWA.  IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN WE
WOULD BE VERY WET FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.  FOR NOW THE EURO MODEL`S
SOLUTION LOOKS MUCH MORE FEASIBLE BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED AND
IF THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY VERIFY THEN POPS WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO BE INCREASED.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. GUSTY NORTHWEST
WINDS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AROUND SUNSET WITH LIGHT
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. VFR CU FIELD POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY FEW-SCT060.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR BLACK HAWK-BREMER-
BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-
HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POWESHIEK-
STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 221145
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY
WITH SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIXING DEPTH OF 6-8KFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE WITH WINDS OF 30-40KTS AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE...STILL ANTICIPATE A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN.
IT APPEARS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT QUITE AS TIGHT AND WINDS ARE NOT
AS STRONG THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS AND THEREFORE WILL FORGO ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD BELOW NORMAL WITH THERMAL TROF STARTING OUT ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL HAVE LITTLE CONCERN AS IOWA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE DEPARTING LARGE LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  WE WILL HAVE CONCERNS FOR FROST AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD AND NORTHWEST WINDS DROPPING OFF
TO AT OR BELOW 5 KTS. HOWEVER THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL HIT AN HOUR
OR SO BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL NOT LAST LONG AND BEING STILL FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE SEASON I HAVE OPTED NOT TO HEADLINE PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FROST ALTHOUGH IT IS IN THE GRIDS.

I WAS LESS IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE
BUT TONIGHT`S MODEL RUNS REALLY COME TOGETHER AND BRING A LARGE AREA
OF FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED ON SATURDAY BY A LOW AND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA SATURATE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY BUT THE STRONGEST FORCING IS NOT UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO THERE WILL BE TIMING OF THE START OF PRECIP
TO FORECAST BUT ITS A LITTLE TO FAR OUT FOR SPECIFICS ON THAT JUST
YET. HIGHEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE EITHER SO I AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD
ON THUNDERSTORMS YET BUT AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SOME INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.  ALSO WITH
AS STRONG AS THE FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE IT WILL NOT BE TOO
DIFFICULT TO GET A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.  AT THIS POINT THE
ISOLATED WORDING WE HAVE GOING IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE STATE SUNDAY FOR A BREAK IN
THE PRECIP AND SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE PUTTING IOWA IN RETURN FLOW.  THEN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
A TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME BUT BY THEN...DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...RIDGING STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
WEST.  THE GFS IS VERY UGLY LOOKING AND THIS FAR OUT...PROBABLY THE
LEAST BELIEVABLE.  THE GFS HAS A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THE NORTHERN LOW DROPS SOUTH AND BECOMES INGESTED IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WHICH FUJIWARA`S ACROSS ILLINOIS THEN RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY BACK WEST INTO EASTERN IOWA.  IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN WE
WOULD BE VERY WET FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.  FOR NOW THE EURO MODEL`S
SOLUTION LOOKS MUCH MORE FEASIBLE BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED AND
IF THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY VERIFY THEN POPS WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO BE INCREASED.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. WINDS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE
DURING THIS FORECAST WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE STATE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 221145
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY
WITH SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIXING DEPTH OF 6-8KFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE WITH WINDS OF 30-40KTS AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE...STILL ANTICIPATE A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN.
IT APPEARS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT QUITE AS TIGHT AND WINDS ARE NOT
AS STRONG THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS AND THEREFORE WILL FORGO ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD BELOW NORMAL WITH THERMAL TROF STARTING OUT ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL HAVE LITTLE CONCERN AS IOWA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE DEPARTING LARGE LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  WE WILL HAVE CONCERNS FOR FROST AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD AND NORTHWEST WINDS DROPPING OFF
TO AT OR BELOW 5 KTS. HOWEVER THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL HIT AN HOUR
OR SO BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL NOT LAST LONG AND BEING STILL FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE SEASON I HAVE OPTED NOT TO HEADLINE PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FROST ALTHOUGH IT IS IN THE GRIDS.

I WAS LESS IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE
BUT TONIGHT`S MODEL RUNS REALLY COME TOGETHER AND BRING A LARGE AREA
OF FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED ON SATURDAY BY A LOW AND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA SATURATE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY BUT THE STRONGEST FORCING IS NOT UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO THERE WILL BE TIMING OF THE START OF PRECIP
TO FORECAST BUT ITS A LITTLE TO FAR OUT FOR SPECIFICS ON THAT JUST
YET. HIGHEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE EITHER SO I AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD
ON THUNDERSTORMS YET BUT AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SOME INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.  ALSO WITH
AS STRONG AS THE FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE IT WILL NOT BE TOO
DIFFICULT TO GET A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.  AT THIS POINT THE
ISOLATED WORDING WE HAVE GOING IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE STATE SUNDAY FOR A BREAK IN
THE PRECIP AND SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE PUTTING IOWA IN RETURN FLOW.  THEN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
A TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME BUT BY THEN...DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...RIDGING STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
WEST.  THE GFS IS VERY UGLY LOOKING AND THIS FAR OUT...PROBABLY THE
LEAST BELIEVABLE.  THE GFS HAS A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THE NORTHERN LOW DROPS SOUTH AND BECOMES INGESTED IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WHICH FUJIWARA`S ACROSS ILLINOIS THEN RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY BACK WEST INTO EASTERN IOWA.  IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN WE
WOULD BE VERY WET FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.  FOR NOW THE EURO MODEL`S
SOLUTION LOOKS MUCH MORE FEASIBLE BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED AND
IF THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY VERIFY THEN POPS WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO BE INCREASED.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. WINDS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE
DURING THIS FORECAST WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE STATE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 221145
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY
WITH SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIXING DEPTH OF 6-8KFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE WITH WINDS OF 30-40KTS AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE...STILL ANTICIPATE A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN.
IT APPEARS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT QUITE AS TIGHT AND WINDS ARE NOT
AS STRONG THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS AND THEREFORE WILL FORGO ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD BELOW NORMAL WITH THERMAL TROF STARTING OUT ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL HAVE LITTLE CONCERN AS IOWA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE DEPARTING LARGE LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  WE WILL HAVE CONCERNS FOR FROST AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD AND NORTHWEST WINDS DROPPING OFF
TO AT OR BELOW 5 KTS. HOWEVER THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL HIT AN HOUR
OR SO BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL NOT LAST LONG AND BEING STILL FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE SEASON I HAVE OPTED NOT TO HEADLINE PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FROST ALTHOUGH IT IS IN THE GRIDS.

I WAS LESS IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE
BUT TONIGHT`S MODEL RUNS REALLY COME TOGETHER AND BRING A LARGE AREA
OF FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED ON SATURDAY BY A LOW AND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA SATURATE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY BUT THE STRONGEST FORCING IS NOT UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO THERE WILL BE TIMING OF THE START OF PRECIP
TO FORECAST BUT ITS A LITTLE TO FAR OUT FOR SPECIFICS ON THAT JUST
YET. HIGHEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE EITHER SO I AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD
ON THUNDERSTORMS YET BUT AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SOME INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.  ALSO WITH
AS STRONG AS THE FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE IT WILL NOT BE TOO
DIFFICULT TO GET A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.  AT THIS POINT THE
ISOLATED WORDING WE HAVE GOING IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE STATE SUNDAY FOR A BREAK IN
THE PRECIP AND SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE PUTTING IOWA IN RETURN FLOW.  THEN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
A TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME BUT BY THEN...DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...RIDGING STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
WEST.  THE GFS IS VERY UGLY LOOKING AND THIS FAR OUT...PROBABLY THE
LEAST BELIEVABLE.  THE GFS HAS A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THE NORTHERN LOW DROPS SOUTH AND BECOMES INGESTED IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WHICH FUJIWARA`S ACROSS ILLINOIS THEN RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY BACK WEST INTO EASTERN IOWA.  IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN WE
WOULD BE VERY WET FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.  FOR NOW THE EURO MODEL`S
SOLUTION LOOKS MUCH MORE FEASIBLE BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED AND
IF THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY VERIFY THEN POPS WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO BE INCREASED.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. WINDS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE
DURING THIS FORECAST WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE STATE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 221145
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
645 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY
WITH SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIXING DEPTH OF 6-8KFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE WITH WINDS OF 30-40KTS AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE...STILL ANTICIPATE A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN.
IT APPEARS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT QUITE AS TIGHT AND WINDS ARE NOT
AS STRONG THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS AND THEREFORE WILL FORGO ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD BELOW NORMAL WITH THERMAL TROF STARTING OUT ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL HAVE LITTLE CONCERN AS IOWA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE DEPARTING LARGE LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  WE WILL HAVE CONCERNS FOR FROST AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD AND NORTHWEST WINDS DROPPING OFF
TO AT OR BELOW 5 KTS. HOWEVER THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL HIT AN HOUR
OR SO BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL NOT LAST LONG AND BEING STILL FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE SEASON I HAVE OPTED NOT TO HEADLINE PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FROST ALTHOUGH IT IS IN THE GRIDS.

I WAS LESS IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE
BUT TONIGHT`S MODEL RUNS REALLY COME TOGETHER AND BRING A LARGE AREA
OF FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED ON SATURDAY BY A LOW AND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA SATURATE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY BUT THE STRONGEST FORCING IS NOT UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO THERE WILL BE TIMING OF THE START OF PRECIP
TO FORECAST BUT ITS A LITTLE TO FAR OUT FOR SPECIFICS ON THAT JUST
YET. HIGHEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE EITHER SO I AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD
ON THUNDERSTORMS YET BUT AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SOME INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.  ALSO WITH
AS STRONG AS THE FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE IT WILL NOT BE TOO
DIFFICULT TO GET A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.  AT THIS POINT THE
ISOLATED WORDING WE HAVE GOING IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE STATE SUNDAY FOR A BREAK IN
THE PRECIP AND SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE PUTTING IOWA IN RETURN FLOW.  THEN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
A TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME BUT BY THEN...DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...RIDGING STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
WEST.  THE GFS IS VERY UGLY LOOKING AND THIS FAR OUT...PROBABLY THE
LEAST BELIEVABLE.  THE GFS HAS A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THE NORTHERN LOW DROPS SOUTH AND BECOMES INGESTED IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WHICH FUJIWARA`S ACROSS ILLINOIS THEN RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY BACK WEST INTO EASTERN IOWA.  IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN WE
WOULD BE VERY WET FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.  FOR NOW THE EURO MODEL`S
SOLUTION LOOKS MUCH MORE FEASIBLE BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED AND
IF THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY VERIFY THEN POPS WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO BE INCREASED.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 638 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS. WINDS ARE THE MAIN ISSUE
DURING THIS FORECAST WITH STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY.
HOWEVER...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES TONIGHT WITH WINDS
BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE STATE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 220841
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
341 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY
WITH SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIXING DEPTH OF 6-8KFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE WITH WINDS OF 30-40KTS AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE...STILL ANTICIPATE A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN.
IT APPEARS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT QUITE AS TIGHT AND WINDS ARE NOT
AS STRONG THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS AND THEREFORE WILL FORGO ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD BELOW NORMAL WITH THERMAL TROF STARTING OUT ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL HAVE LITTLE CONCERN AS IOWA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE DEPARTING LARGE LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  WE WILL HAVE CONCERNS FOR FROST AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD AND NORTHWEST WINDS DROPPING OFF
TO AT OR BELOW 5 KTS. HOWEVER THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL HIT AN HOUR
OR SO BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL NOT LAST LONG AND BEING STILL FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE SEASON I HAVE OPTED NOT TO HEADLINE PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FROST ALTHOUGH IT IS IN THE GRIDS.

I WAS LESS IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE
BUT TONIGHT`S MODEL RUNS REALLY COME TOGETHER AND BRING A LARGE AREA
OF FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED ON SATURDAY BY A LOW AND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA SATURATE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY BUT THE STRONGEST FORCING IS NOT UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO THERE WILL BE TIMING OF THE START OF PRECIP
TO FORECAST BUT ITS A LITTLE TO FAR OUT FOR SPECIFICS ON THAT JUST
YET. HIGHEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE EITHER SO I AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD
ON THUNDERSTORMS YET BUT AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SOME INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.  ALSO WITH
AS STRONG AS THE FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE IT WILL NOT BE TOO
DIFFICULT TO GET A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.  AT THIS POINT THE
ISOLATED WORDING WE HAVE GOING IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE STATE SUNDAY FOR A BREAK IN
THE PRECIP AND SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE PUTTING IOWA IN RETURN FLOW.  THEN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
A TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME BUT BY THEN...DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...RIDGING STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
WEST.  THE GFS IS VERY UGLY LOOKING AND THIS FAR OUT...PROBABLY THE
LEAST BELIEVABLE.  THE GFS HAS A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THE NORTHERN LOW DROPS SOUTH AND BECOMES INGESTED IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WHICH FUJIWARA`S ACROSS ILLINOIS THEN RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY BACK WEST INTO EASTERN IOWA.  IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN WE
WOULD BE VERY WET FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.  FOR NOW THE EURO MODEL`S
SOLUTION LOOKS MUCH MORE FEASIBLE BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED AND
IF THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY VERIFY THEN POPS WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO BE INCREASED.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

WIND GUSTS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN SITES...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFT
08 TO 09Z. CLOUD DECK OF BKN040 WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST BY 10Z
WITH FEW-SCT REDEVELOPING AFT 15Z AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS 20 GUST 30 KTS FOR NORTHERN SITES
AT KMCW AND KALO...BUT THEN DIMINISHING BY 23Z. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
AREA. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 220841
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
341 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY
WITH SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIXING DEPTH OF 6-8KFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE WITH WINDS OF 30-40KTS AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE...STILL ANTICIPATE A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN.
IT APPEARS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT QUITE AS TIGHT AND WINDS ARE NOT
AS STRONG THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS AND THEREFORE WILL FORGO ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD BELOW NORMAL WITH THERMAL TROF STARTING OUT ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL HAVE LITTLE CONCERN AS IOWA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE DEPARTING LARGE LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  WE WILL HAVE CONCERNS FOR FROST AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD AND NORTHWEST WINDS DROPPING OFF
TO AT OR BELOW 5 KTS. HOWEVER THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL HIT AN HOUR
OR SO BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL NOT LAST LONG AND BEING STILL FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE SEASON I HAVE OPTED NOT TO HEADLINE PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FROST ALTHOUGH IT IS IN THE GRIDS.

I WAS LESS IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE
BUT TONIGHT`S MODEL RUNS REALLY COME TOGETHER AND BRING A LARGE AREA
OF FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED ON SATURDAY BY A LOW AND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA SATURATE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY BUT THE STRONGEST FORCING IS NOT UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO THERE WILL BE TIMING OF THE START OF PRECIP
TO FORECAST BUT ITS A LITTLE TO FAR OUT FOR SPECIFICS ON THAT JUST
YET. HIGHEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE EITHER SO I AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD
ON THUNDERSTORMS YET BUT AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SOME INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.  ALSO WITH
AS STRONG AS THE FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE IT WILL NOT BE TOO
DIFFICULT TO GET A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.  AT THIS POINT THE
ISOLATED WORDING WE HAVE GOING IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE STATE SUNDAY FOR A BREAK IN
THE PRECIP AND SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE PUTTING IOWA IN RETURN FLOW.  THEN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
A TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME BUT BY THEN...DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...RIDGING STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
WEST.  THE GFS IS VERY UGLY LOOKING AND THIS FAR OUT...PROBABLY THE
LEAST BELIEVABLE.  THE GFS HAS A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THE NORTHERN LOW DROPS SOUTH AND BECOMES INGESTED IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WHICH FUJIWARA`S ACROSS ILLINOIS THEN RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY BACK WEST INTO EASTERN IOWA.  IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN WE
WOULD BE VERY WET FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.  FOR NOW THE EURO MODEL`S
SOLUTION LOOKS MUCH MORE FEASIBLE BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED AND
IF THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY VERIFY THEN POPS WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO BE INCREASED.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

WIND GUSTS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN SITES...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFT
08 TO 09Z. CLOUD DECK OF BKN040 WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST BY 10Z
WITH FEW-SCT REDEVELOPING AFT 15Z AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS 20 GUST 30 KTS FOR NORTHERN SITES
AT KMCW AND KALO...BUT THEN DIMINISHING BY 23Z. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
AREA. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 220841
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
341 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW OVER ONTARIO WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PULL AWAY TODAY
WITH SURFACE RIDGING APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  RELATIVELY DRY
AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES AND FAIRLY DEEP
MIXING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MIXING DEPTH OF 6-8KFT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE STATE WITH WINDS OF 30-40KTS AT TOP OF MIXED LAYER.
THEREFORE...STILL ANTICIPATE A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTHEAST WHERE WINDS WILL APPROACH ADVISORY CRITERIA ONCE AGAIN.
IT APPEARS PRESSURE GRADIENT IS NOT QUITE AS TIGHT AND WINDS ARE NOT
AS STRONG THROUGH THE MIXED LAYER AS WAS THE CASE OVER THE PAST TWO
DAYS AND THEREFORE WILL FORGO ANY HEADLINES. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO HOLD BELOW NORMAL WITH THERMAL TROF STARTING OUT ACROSS
THE STATE THIS MORNING THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD DURING THE DAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT WED APR 22 2015

TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WE WILL HAVE LITTLE CONCERN AS IOWA
WILL BE IN BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE WEST AND THE DEPARTING LARGE LOW
OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES.  WE WILL HAVE CONCERNS FOR FROST AGAIN
TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES OVERHEAD AND NORTHWEST WINDS DROPPING OFF
TO AT OR BELOW 5 KTS. HOWEVER THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL HIT AN HOUR
OR SO BEFORE SUNRISE AND WILL NOT LAST LONG AND BEING STILL FAIRLY
EARLY IN THE SEASON I HAVE OPTED NOT TO HEADLINE PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FROST ALTHOUGH IT IS IN THE GRIDS.

I WAS LESS IMPRESSED WITH PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY/SATURDAY BEFORE
BUT TONIGHT`S MODEL RUNS REALLY COME TOGETHER AND BRING A LARGE AREA
OF FORCING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE DAY FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT FOLLOWED ON SATURDAY BY A LOW AND SHORTWAVE TRAVERSING THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.  SOUNDINGS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA SATURATE DURING THE
MORNING HOURS FRIDAY BUT THE STRONGEST FORCING IS NOT UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING SO THERE WILL BE TIMING OF THE START OF PRECIP
TO FORECAST BUT ITS A LITTLE TO FAR OUT FOR SPECIFICS ON THAT JUST
YET. HIGHEST POPS WILL LIKELY BE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/FRIDAY
NIGHT.

WE ARE NOT PARTICULARLY UNSTABLE EITHER SO I AM NOT COMPLETELY SOLD
ON THUNDERSTORMS YET BUT AS THE WAVE SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS SOME INSTABILITY IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.  ALSO WITH
AS STRONG AS THE FORCING IS PROGGED TO BE IT WILL NOT BE TOO
DIFFICULT TO GET A RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER.  AT THIS POINT THE
ISOLATED WORDING WE HAVE GOING IS PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO HANDLE
THINGS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING REBUILDS INTO THE STATE SUNDAY FOR A BREAK IN
THE PRECIP AND SOME MODERATION IN TEMPS AS A SURFACE HIGH MOVES EAST
OF THE STATE PUTTING IOWA IN RETURN FLOW.  THEN FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
A TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SATURATE
UNTIL MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY TIME FRAME BUT BY THEN...DEPENDING ON
WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE...RIDGING STARTS TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE
WEST.  THE GFS IS VERY UGLY LOOKING AND THIS FAR OUT...PROBABLY THE
LEAST BELIEVABLE.  THE GFS HAS A STRONG LOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WITH ANOTHER STRONG LOW ACROSS CANADA AND THE NORTHERN
PLAINS.  THE NORTHERN LOW DROPS SOUTH AND BECOMES INGESTED IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WHICH FUJIWARA`S ACROSS ILLINOIS THEN RETROGRADES
SLIGHTLY BACK WEST INTO EASTERN IOWA.  IF THIS WERE TO HAPPEN WE
WOULD BE VERY WET FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD.  FOR NOW THE EURO MODEL`S
SOLUTION LOOKS MUCH MORE FEASIBLE BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED AND
IF THE GFS LOOKS LIKE IT MAY VERIFY THEN POPS WILL DEFINITELY NEED
TO BE INCREASED.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

WIND GUSTS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN SITES...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFT
08 TO 09Z. CLOUD DECK OF BKN040 WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST BY 10Z
WITH FEW-SCT REDEVELOPING AFT 15Z AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS 20 GUST 30 KTS FOR NORTHERN SITES
AT KMCW AND KALO...BUT THEN DIMINISHING BY 23Z. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
AREA. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 220448
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1148 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

WILL EXPIRE THE WIND ADVISORY AT 6 PM. A FEW GUSTS WILL LINGER AND
WITH SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND DRY AIR AT THE SFC...SOME
CONVECTIVE GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH VIRGA. OTHERWISE...GRADIENT WINDS
AND GUSTS WILL RELAX AFTER 6 PM. /REV

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ROUNDING THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGRESSING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TOWARD IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE THIS IS BEING REFLECTED IN A SUBTLE
FRONT/WIND SURGE...AND THE FEATURE IS ALSO GENERATING A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RADAR ECHOES STRETCHING FROM AROUND YANKTON TO
ATLANTIC. THUS FAR IT APPEARS LITTLE...IF ANY...OF THIS
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE
IS JUST MATURING NOW AND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE PRECIPITATION
RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED THE LOW POPS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH SUNSET...BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND OF NO
CONSEQUENCE. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS
SLATED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN MIXING
BY SUNSET AND THE FACT THAT WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO TAPER OFF
JUST A LITTLE BIT...EXPECT THAT THIS TIMELINE WILL HOLD UP NICELY.
THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE
COOLER AIR BEING PUMPED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED AFTER DARK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH
WINDS STAYING IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE AND DAMP GROUND A FROST SEEMS
FAR FROM CERTAIN AND GIVEN THAT THE AGRICULTURAL AND GARDENING
GROWING SEASONS HAVE NOT REALLY BEGUN YET NO HEADLINES ARE BEING
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT WITH IT CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ITS MOVE EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AS IT SLIDES EAST A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE IN BEHIND IT AND BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE MAKING WAY FOR A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
KEEP US IN NORTHWEST FLOW...THOUGH MUCH LIGHTER THAN EARLY IN THE
WEEK. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS A RESULT AS WELL AND BRING ABOUT NEAR
AND SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO THE
ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WHERE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST MAY
BE AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE-80. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRIMARY DRIVER STILL THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE...BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND
SLIDES OFF OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AS THAT
HAPPENS...THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OF LATE WILL DIMINISH TO
NEAR CALM AND ALLOW SOME RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH LATER THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM AND HAVE IT SETTING UP AS A RELATIVELY WEAK CUT OFF
LOW AND SLIDES IT JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE SAME TIME
PERIOD...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE STATE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL COMES FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE STATE AND
LIFT ON THE WEAK SIDE...THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
MINIMAL. BEYOND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SOME BY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK TROUGH MAY BRING WITH IT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP NEXT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

WIND GUSTS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN SITES...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFT
08 TO 09Z. CLOUD DECK OF BKN040 WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST BY 10Z
WITH FEW-SCT REDEVELOPING AFT 15Z AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS 20 GUST 30 KTS FOR NORTHERN SITES
AT KMCW AND KALO...BUT THEN DIMINISHING BY 23Z. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
AREA. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 220448
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1148 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

WILL EXPIRE THE WIND ADVISORY AT 6 PM. A FEW GUSTS WILL LINGER AND
WITH SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND DRY AIR AT THE SFC...SOME
CONVECTIVE GUSTS MAY OCCUR WITH VIRGA. OTHERWISE...GRADIENT WINDS
AND GUSTS WILL RELAX AFTER 6 PM. /REV

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IMPULSE ROUNDING THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT IS
PROGRESSING FROM SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA TOWARD IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE THIS IS BEING REFLECTED IN A SUBTLE
FRONT/WIND SURGE...AND THE FEATURE IS ALSO GENERATING A BAND OF
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RADAR ECHOES STRETCHING FROM AROUND YANKTON TO
ATLANTIC. THUS FAR IT APPEARS LITTLE...IF ANY...OF THIS
PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN REACHING THE GROUND. HOWEVER...THE SHORTWAVE
IS JUST MATURING NOW AND IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS MOST HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS INDICATE A SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION OF THE PRECIPITATION
RESULTING IN A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LIKELY REACHING THE GROUND ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA. HAVE THUS MAINTAINED THE LOW POPS IN THIS AREA
THROUGH SUNSET...BUT ANY RAINFALL WILL BE EXTREMELY LIGHT AND OF NO
CONSEQUENCE. A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON BUT IS
SLATED TO EXPIRE AT 6 PM...AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED DECREASE IN MIXING
BY SUNSET AND THE FACT THAT WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO TAPER OFF
JUST A LITTLE BIT...EXPECT THAT THIS TIMELINE WILL HOLD UP NICELY.
THE OTHER FORECAST ISSUE FOR TONIGHT IS TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE
COOLER AIR BEING PUMPED IN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKIES EXPECTED AFTER DARK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL TO
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER...WITH
WINDS STAYING IN THE 5 TO 10 MPH RANGE AND DAMP GROUND A FROST SEEMS
FAR FROM CERTAIN AND GIVEN THAT THE AGRICULTURAL AND GARDENING
GROWING SEASONS HAVE NOT REALLY BEGUN YET NO HEADLINES ARE BEING
ISSUED AT THIS TIME.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 214 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT HAS BROUGHT WITH IT CHILLY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ITS MOVE EASTWARD OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA
AND THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES. AS IT SLIDES EAST A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SLIDE IN BEHIND IT AND BE THE MAIN DRIVER FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE MAKING WAY FOR A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE ROCKIES THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED BY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT WILL
KEEP US IN NORTHWEST FLOW...THOUGH MUCH LIGHTER THAN EARLY IN THE
WEEK. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT AS A RESULT AS WELL AND BRING ABOUT NEAR
AND SUB-FREEZING LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION THANKS TO THE
ADDITIONAL RADIATIONAL COOLING THAT WILL BE SEEN OVERNIGHT. THE
COLDEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE REALIZED WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING WHERE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES AND FROST MAY
BE AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE-80. THURSDAY WILL BEGIN SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY WITH THE PRIMARY DRIVER STILL THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE...BUT ITS INFLUENCE WILL DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AS IT SLIDES EASTWARD AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS AND
SLIDES OFF OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS. AS THAT
HAPPENS...THE PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW OF LATE WILL DIMINISH TO
NEAR CALM AND ALLOW SOME RETURN FLOW FROM THE SOUTH LATER THURSDAY
AND INTO FRIDAY.

THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT OVER THE PROGRESSION OF
THE SYSTEM AND HAVE IT SETTING UP AS A RELATIVELY WEAK CUT OFF
LOW AND SLIDES IT JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
ALONG WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH DURING THE SAME TIME
PERIOD...SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER WILL AFFECT MUCH OF
THE STATE. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL COMES FRIDAY EVENING AND INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. WITH THE LOW POSITIONED SOUTH OF THE STATE AND
LIFT ON THE WEAK SIDE...THE CHANCES FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
MINIMAL. BEYOND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE
SOME BY NEXT WEEK AND A WEAK TROUGH MAY BRING WITH IT CHANCES FOR
PRECIP NEXT MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

WIND GUSTS CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN SITES...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH AFT
08 TO 09Z. CLOUD DECK OF BKN040 WILL SHIFT EAST SOUTHEAST BY 10Z
WITH FEW-SCT REDEVELOPING AFT 15Z AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN. EXPECTING NORTHWEST WINDS 20 GUST 30 KTS FOR NORTHERN SITES
AT KMCW AND KALO...BUT THEN DIMINISHING BY 23Z. LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED REMAINDER OF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS INTO
AREA. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...REV
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...CURTIS
AVIATION...REV





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