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000
FXUS63 KDMX 012033
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAS RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ACROSS IOWA LATE THIS EVENING. SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE MUCH DRIER THAN OVER THE PAST WEEK AND THUS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE A BIT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT STILL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND THE RECENT RAINFALL
AND WET GROUND MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE BREAKS IN
CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW MORE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...THEN LOOKING DRY FOR
THE WEEKEND. TAIL END OF A WEEK SHORTWAVE TO BE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY SO MAY HAVE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/EAST.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO DIG INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXPECTED AS WELL...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE PRECIP CHANCES
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL
RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS
PUSHING INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS. SFC LOW TO LIFT FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY...DRAGGING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE CWA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE
STATE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MUCH
OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE VICINITY OF
KALO AND KOTM THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CIGS WILL RAISE AND SCATTER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE VFR GOING INTO TUESDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 012033
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

WEAK INSTABILITY REMAINS OVER IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND HAS RESULTED IN A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
MOVING INTO WESTERN NEBRASKA. THE KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE ACROSS IOWA LATE THIS EVENING. SOUNDING
PROFILES ARE MUCH DRIER THAN OVER THE PAST WEEK AND THUS THE SYSTEM
WILL BE A BIT MOISTURE STARVED...BUT STILL THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
FORCING FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT AND THE RECENT RAINFALL
AND WET GROUND MAY LEAD TO SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE BREAKS IN
CLOUDS.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

A FEW MORE CHANCES OF RAIN THROUGH THE WEEK...THEN LOOKING DRY FOR
THE WEEKEND. TAIL END OF A WEEK SHORTWAVE TO BE MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTH EARLY TUESDAY SO MAY HAVE A FEW LINGERING
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH/EAST.
OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO DIG INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW DEVELOPING IN LEE
OF THE ROCKIES. THE ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. STRONG MOISTURE
ADVECTION EXPECTED AS WELL...SO HAVE CONTINUED THE PRECIP CHANCES
FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THERMAL
RIDGING THEN BUILDS INTO THE CWA FOR THURSDAY...WITH H85 TEMPS
PUSHING INTO THE MID 20S CELSIUS. SFC LOW TO LIFT FROM EASTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO THROUGH THE DAY...DRAGGING A
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AS
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPS THROUGH THE CWA. A LARGE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE THEN BUILDS INTO THE REGION FOR LATE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL BRING MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR TO THE
STATE...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE 70S FOR THE WEEKEND.
RETURN FLOW SETS UP IN THE LOWER LEVELS...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TOWARD THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MUCH
OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE VICINITY OF
KALO AND KOTM THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CIGS WILL RAISE AND SCATTER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE VFR GOING INTO TUESDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 011743
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1243 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR IN AN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF IOWA.  THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.  THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE FASTER THAN THE TAIL
END AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN.  THE FRONT WILL LAY
OUT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH EAST AND AT 18Z SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO WATERLOO THEN TO LAMONI.  AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING MICHIGAN TO
THE NORTH THEN EXTENDING BACK TO AROUND OTTUMWA.  THERE IS DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FORCING AS WELL.

CURRENTLY THERE IS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA BUT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 IT IS MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP I WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.  SHEAR IS ENOUGH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND.  BY 00Z THE
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AT MOST.  I HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S AHEAD OF IT.  THE SPEED OF THE FRONT BEING AS SLOW AS IT IS
IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT FOR NOW
I HAVE THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF IOWA AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS THE AIRMASS IS PACIFIC IN
NATURE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT TO SEE SOME WAA
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR MID
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE THU WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NIGHT WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER FLOW BUCKLES MORE WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN COOLER AIR THAN THE PAST FEW
FRONTS HAVE, DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S...EVEN A FEW UPPER
60S...OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONGER TERM...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
A STRONG COOLING FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER THE BERMUDA
HIGH BACKS OFF WITH THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE VICINITY OF
KALO AND KOTM THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CIGS WILL RAISE AND SCATTER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE VFR GOING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 011743
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1243 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR IN AN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF IOWA.  THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.  THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE FASTER THAN THE TAIL
END AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN.  THE FRONT WILL LAY
OUT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH EAST AND AT 18Z SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO WATERLOO THEN TO LAMONI.  AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING MICHIGAN TO
THE NORTH THEN EXTENDING BACK TO AROUND OTTUMWA.  THERE IS DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FORCING AS WELL.

CURRENTLY THERE IS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA BUT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 IT IS MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP I WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.  SHEAR IS ENOUGH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND.  BY 00Z THE
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AT MOST.  I HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S AHEAD OF IT.  THE SPEED OF THE FRONT BEING AS SLOW AS IT IS
IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT FOR NOW
I HAVE THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF IOWA AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS THE AIRMASS IS PACIFIC IN
NATURE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT TO SEE SOME WAA
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR MID
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE THU WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NIGHT WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER FLOW BUCKLES MORE WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN COOLER AIR THAN THE PAST FEW
FRONTS HAVE, DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S...EVEN A FEW UPPER
60S...OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONGER TERM...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
A STRONG COOLING FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER THE BERMUDA
HIGH BACKS OFF WITH THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE VICINITY OF
KALO AND KOTM THIS AFTERNOON. LOCAL MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON BUT
CIGS WILL RAISE AND SCATTER BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT OTHERWISE VFR GOING INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 011148
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR IN AN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF IOWA.  THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.  THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE FASTER THAN THE TAIL
END AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN.  THE FRONT WILL LAY
OUT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH EAST AND AT 18Z SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO WATERLOO THEN TO LAMONI.  AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING MICHIGAN TO
THE NORTH THEN EXTENDING BACK TO AROUND OTTUMWA.  THERE IS DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FORCING AS WELL.

CURRENTLY THERE IS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA BUT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 IT IS MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP I WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.  SHEAR IS ENOUGH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND.  BY 00Z THE
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AT MOST.  I HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S AHEAD OF IT.  THE SPEED OF THE FRONT BEING AS SLOW AS IT IS
IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT FOR NOW
I HAVE THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF IOWA AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS THE AIRMASS IS PACIFIC IN
NATURE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT TO SEE SOME WAA
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR MID
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE THU WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NIGHT WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER FLOW BUCKLES MORE WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN COOLER AIR THAN THE PAST FEW
FRONTS HAVE, DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S...EVEN A FEW UPPER
60S...OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONGER TERM...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
A STRONG COOLING FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER THE BERMUDA
HIGH BACKS OFF WITH THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/12Z
ISSUED AT 0648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NW IA WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN TAF
LOCATIONS THIS AFTN.  LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR COND THIS AFTN.  TSRA WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF FRONT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SO JUST
PUT VCSH IN TAFS FOR NOW.  SFC WND WITH BECOME NWLY AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 011148
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR IN AN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF IOWA.  THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.  THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE FASTER THAN THE TAIL
END AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN.  THE FRONT WILL LAY
OUT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH EAST AND AT 18Z SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO WATERLOO THEN TO LAMONI.  AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING MICHIGAN TO
THE NORTH THEN EXTENDING BACK TO AROUND OTTUMWA.  THERE IS DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FORCING AS WELL.

CURRENTLY THERE IS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA BUT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 IT IS MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP I WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.  SHEAR IS ENOUGH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND.  BY 00Z THE
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AT MOST.  I HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S AHEAD OF IT.  THE SPEED OF THE FRONT BEING AS SLOW AS IT IS
IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT FOR NOW
I HAVE THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF IOWA AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS THE AIRMASS IS PACIFIC IN
NATURE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT TO SEE SOME WAA
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR MID
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE THU WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NIGHT WEEK WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER FLOW BUCKLES MORE WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN COOLER AIR THAN THE PAST FEW
FRONTS HAVE, DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S...EVEN A FEW UPPER
60S...OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONGER TERM...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
A STRONG COOLING FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER THE BERMUDA
HIGH BACKS OFF WITH THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/12Z
ISSUED AT 0648 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT SLOWLY PUSHING INTO NW IA WILL MOVE ACROSS ERN TAF
LOCATIONS THIS AFTN.  LOW CLOUDS WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER THIS
MORNING BUT STILL EXPECT VFR COND THIS AFTN.  TSRA WILL DEVELOP
AHEAD OF FRONT BUT COVERAGE SHOULD ONLY BE ISOLD TO WDLY SCT SO JUST
PUT VCSH IN TAFS FOR NOW.  SFC WND WITH BECOME NWLY AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 010848
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
348 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR IN AN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF IOWA.  THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.  THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE FASTER THAN THE TAIL
END AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN.  THE FRONT WILL LAY
OUT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH EAST AND AT 18Z SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO WATERLOO THEN TO LAMONI.  AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING MICHIGAN TO
THE NORTH THEN EXTENDING BACK TO AROUND OTTUMWA.  THERE IS DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FORCING AS WELL.

CURRENTLY THERE IS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA BUT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 IT IS MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP I WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.  SHEAR IS ENOUGH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND.  BY 00Z THE
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AT MOST.  I HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S AHEAD OF IT.  THE SPEED OF THE FRONT BEING AS SLOW AS IT IS
IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT FOR NOW
I HAVE THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF IOWA AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS THE AIRMASS IS PACIFIC IN
NATURE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT TO SEE SOME WAA
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR MID
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE THU WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NIGHT WEEK WITH ANOTHERROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER FLOW BUCKLES MORE WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN COOLER AIR THAN THE PAST FEW
FRONTS HAVE, DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S...EVEN A FEW UPPER
60S...OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONGER TERM...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
A STRONG COOLING FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER THE BERMUDA
HIGH BACKS OFF WITH THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION LINGERS OVER ERN IA WITH CATEGORY RANGING FROM VFR TO
IFR. EXPECT THIS TO LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS WITH ELEVATED THUNDER
BUT REMAIN VFR. ADDITIONAL VFR WEAK CONVECTION MAY ALSO BRUSH NRN
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BRIEF MVFR RADIATION FOG MAY
ALSO OCCUR IN SPOTS TO DUE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WIND BECOMING NWLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF MON AS COLD FRONT...JUST CROSSING MO RIVER AT
05Z...TRAVERSES THE STATE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 010848
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
348 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS IA WILL PASS TO THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST ABOUT FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CURRENTLY THERE IS CONVECTION RE-FIRING ALONG THE HIGHWAY 20
CORRIDOR IN AN AXIS OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT
IS SITUATED ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF IOWA.  THE SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.  THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE FRONT WILL ACCELERATE FASTER THAN THE TAIL
END AIDED BY A SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO WISCONSIN.  THE FRONT WILL LAY
OUT ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH EAST AND AT 18Z SHOULD BE FROM ROUGHLY
NORTHEAST WISCONSIN SOUTHWEST TO WATERLOO THEN TO LAMONI.  AT THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THE FRONT WILL BE ENTERING MICHIGAN TO
THE NORTH THEN EXTENDING BACK TO AROUND OTTUMWA.  THERE IS DECENT
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FORCING AS WELL.

CURRENTLY THERE IS EXPANSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS IOWA BUT SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 20 IT IS MAINLY MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.  ONCE THE
SUN COMES UP I WOULD EXPECT ENOUGH HEATING TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND STORMS TO FIRE ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST.  SHEAR IS ENOUGH FOR STRONG UPDRAFTS AND SOME STORMS WILL
BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND ESPECIALLY DAMAGING WIND.  BY 00Z THE
THREAT WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR SOUTHEAST AT MOST.  I HAVE
TRENDED POPS DOWN FROM NW TO SE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS FOR
TEMPS...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 70S BEHIND THE FRONT WITH LOWER TO
MID 80S AHEAD OF IT.  THE SPEED OF THE FRONT BEING AS SLOW AS IT IS
IT IS HARD TO SAY HOW MUCH OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE 80S BUT FOR NOW
I HAVE THE SOUTHERN THIRD OR SO OF IOWA AROUND 80.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 317 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION TONIGHT AND
TUE...THOUGH NOT SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS THE AIRMASS IS PACIFIC IN
NATURE. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST EXPECT TO SEE SOME WAA
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE BACK SIDE.

RISING HEIGHTS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. FOR MID
WEEK WITH THE WARMEST DAY LIKELY TO BE THU WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.

THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE NIGHT WEEK WITH ANOTHERROUND
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE UPPER FLOW BUCKLES MORE WITH THIS FEATURE
AND THAT WILL LIKELY BRING DOWN COOLER AIR THAN THE PAST FEW
FRONTS HAVE, DROPPING HIGHS INTO THE 70S...EVEN A FEW UPPER
60S...OVER THE WEEKEND. IN THE LONGER TERM...DO NOT EXPECT TO SEE
A STRONG COOLING FOR A WHILE...AT LEAST UNTIL AFTER THE BERMUDA
HIGH BACKS OFF WITH THE APPROACHING LONG WAVE TROUGH TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION LINGERS OVER ERN IA WITH CATEGORY RANGING FROM VFR TO
IFR. EXPECT THIS TO LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS WITH ELEVATED THUNDER
BUT REMAIN VFR. ADDITIONAL VFR WEAK CONVECTION MAY ALSO BRUSH NRN
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BRIEF MVFR RADIATION FOG MAY
ALSO OCCUR IN SPOTS TO DUE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WIND BECOMING NWLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF MON AS COLD FRONT...JUST CROSSING MO RIVER AT
05Z...TRAVERSES THE STATE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...MS SEP 14
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 010534
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1234 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION BASED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND HAS LED TO SFC
BASED CAPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THE SFC INSTABILITY IS MUCH STRONGER
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THIS SHOULD BE THE
AREA FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY BE INITIALLY
SUPERCELLULAR OVER THAT REGION BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
MORE LINEAR THREAT AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA. STILL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THUS THE REASON FOR
THE INCLUSION OF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE CURRENT TORNADO
WATCH. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND POOLING OF MOISTURE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WILL ARRIVE
THIS EVENING WILL HELP STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.
STORMS INITIALLY SHOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. DEVELOPING
COLD POOLS AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT PWAT VALUES
ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY UNDER 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER
SHOULD HAVE POOLING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
WILL PUSH VALUES TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND WILL HELP LEAD TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES EXIST IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN 00-09Z WITH THE DES MOINES
METRO THREAT BETWEEN 03-07Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING STORMS OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THETA E
ADVECTION IN PLACE. SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR ALONG WITH ENERGY
ALOFT TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COULD SEE
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THIS ENERGY AS WELL...BUT MAJORITY OF
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA. STILL SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AROUND WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY SO HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE OFF THE GULF. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO 70S
WEDNESDAY...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US LATE
IN THE WEEK. SFC LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED RANGE TRYING TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT LOOKS LIKE MAIN TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FOR NOW. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WARMING TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A COOL OFF TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION LINGERS OVER ERN IA WITH CATEGORY RANGING FROM VFR TO
IFR. EXPECT THIS TO LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS WITH ELEVATED THUNDER
BUT REMAIN VFR. ADDITIONAL VFR WEAK CONVECTION MAY ALSO BRUSH NRN
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BRIEF MVFR RADIATION FOG MAY
ALSO OCCUR IN SPOTS TO DUE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WIND BECOMING NWLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF MON AS COLD FRONT...JUST CROSSING MO RIVER AT
05Z...TRAVERSES THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 010534
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1234 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION BASED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND HAS LED TO SFC
BASED CAPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THE SFC INSTABILITY IS MUCH STRONGER
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THIS SHOULD BE THE
AREA FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY BE INITIALLY
SUPERCELLULAR OVER THAT REGION BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
MORE LINEAR THREAT AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA. STILL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THUS THE REASON FOR
THE INCLUSION OF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE CURRENT TORNADO
WATCH. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND POOLING OF MOISTURE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WILL ARRIVE
THIS EVENING WILL HELP STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.
STORMS INITIALLY SHOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. DEVELOPING
COLD POOLS AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT PWAT VALUES
ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY UNDER 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER
SHOULD HAVE POOLING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
WILL PUSH VALUES TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND WILL HELP LEAD TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES EXIST IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN 00-09Z WITH THE DES MOINES
METRO THREAT BETWEEN 03-07Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING STORMS OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THETA E
ADVECTION IN PLACE. SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR ALONG WITH ENERGY
ALOFT TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COULD SEE
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THIS ENERGY AS WELL...BUT MAJORITY OF
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA. STILL SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AROUND WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY SO HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE OFF THE GULF. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO 70S
WEDNESDAY...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US LATE
IN THE WEEK. SFC LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED RANGE TRYING TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT LOOKS LIKE MAIN TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FOR NOW. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WARMING TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A COOL OFF TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/06Z
ISSUED AT 1233 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2014

CONVECTION LINGERS OVER ERN IA WITH CATEGORY RANGING FROM VFR TO
IFR. EXPECT THIS TO LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS WITH ELEVATED THUNDER
BUT REMAIN VFR. ADDITIONAL VFR WEAK CONVECTION MAY ALSO BRUSH NRN
TAF SITES EARLY THIS MORNING...AND BRIEF MVFR RADIATION FOG MAY
ALSO OCCUR IN SPOTS TO DUE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. OTHERWISE
EXPECT WIND BECOMING NWLY WITH VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH
MUCH OF MON AS COLD FRONT...JUST CROSSING MO RIVER AT
05Z...TRAVERSES THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 010010
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
710 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION BASED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND HAS LED TO SFC
BASED CAPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THE SFC INSTABILITY IS MUCH STRONGER
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THIS SHOULD BE THE
AREA FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY BE INITIALLY
SUPERCELLULAR OVER THAT REGION BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
MORE LINEAR THREAT AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA. STILL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THUS THE REASON FOR
THE INCLUSION OF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE CURRENT TORNADO
WATCH. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND POOLING OF MOISTURE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WILL ARRIVE
THIS EVENING WILL HELP STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.
STORMS INITIALLY SHOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. DEVELOPING
COLD POOLS AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT PWAT VALUES
ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY UNDER 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER
SHOULD HAVE POOLING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
WILL PUSH VALUES TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND WILL HELP LEAD TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES EXIST IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN 00-09Z WITH THE DES MOINES
METRO THREAT BETWEEN 03-07Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING STORMS OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THETA E
ADVECTION IN PLACE. SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR ALONG WITH ENERGY
ALOFT TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COULD SEE
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THIS ENERGY AS WELL...BUT MAJORITY OF
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA. STILL SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AROUND WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY SO HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE OFF THE GULF. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO 70S
WEDNESDAY...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US LATE
IN THE WEEK. SFC LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED RANGE TRYING TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT LOOKS LIKE MAIN TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FOR NOW. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WARMING TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A COOL OFF TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/00Z
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
ASSOCIATED CATEGORY DEGRADATION. STORMS SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
DETAILS ON HOW LOW INDIVIDUAL STORMS GO HAVE LITTLE PREDICTABILITY
SO STARTED WITH IFR BUT CERTAINLY COULD GO LOWER. EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING FOLLOWED
BY MORE TRANQUIL VFR CONDITIONS INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONCERNS FOR FLOODING CONTINUE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CURRENT PROFILES REMAIN QUITE DRY BELOW 700 MB HOWEVER
MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP
PUSH PWAT VALUES TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR BY THIS
EVENING. RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES...HAVE PRODUCED NEAR SATURATED GROUND ENOUGH TO LOWER
THE THREE HOUR FFG VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE AS A
RESULT OF HIGH RUNOFF RATES. A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH
RAINFALL WITH SPOTTY THREE INCH AMOUNTS IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE LOW FFG VALUES...LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR HEADLINES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-
BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-
MADISON-POLK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL
HYDROLOGY...MS AUG 14/DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 010010
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
710 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION BASED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND HAS LED TO SFC
BASED CAPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THE SFC INSTABILITY IS MUCH STRONGER
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THIS SHOULD BE THE
AREA FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY BE INITIALLY
SUPERCELLULAR OVER THAT REGION BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
MORE LINEAR THREAT AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA. STILL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THUS THE REASON FOR
THE INCLUSION OF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE CURRENT TORNADO
WATCH. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND POOLING OF MOISTURE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WILL ARRIVE
THIS EVENING WILL HELP STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.
STORMS INITIALLY SHOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. DEVELOPING
COLD POOLS AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT PWAT VALUES
ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY UNDER 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER
SHOULD HAVE POOLING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
WILL PUSH VALUES TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND WILL HELP LEAD TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES EXIST IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN 00-09Z WITH THE DES MOINES
METRO THREAT BETWEEN 03-07Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING STORMS OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THETA E
ADVECTION IN PLACE. SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR ALONG WITH ENERGY
ALOFT TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COULD SEE
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THIS ENERGY AS WELL...BUT MAJORITY OF
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA. STILL SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AROUND WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY SO HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE OFF THE GULF. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO 70S
WEDNESDAY...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US LATE
IN THE WEEK. SFC LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED RANGE TRYING TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT LOOKS LIKE MAIN TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FOR NOW. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WARMING TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A COOL OFF TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...01/00Z
ISSUED AT 708 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL OBVIOUSLY BE CONVECTIVE TRENDS AND
ASSOCIATED CATEGORY DEGRADATION. STORMS SHOULD BE QUITE ACTIVE
THIS EVENING WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.
DETAILS ON HOW LOW INDIVIDUAL STORMS GO HAVE LITTLE PREDICTABILITY
SO STARTED WITH IFR BUT CERTAINLY COULD GO LOWER. EXPECT
THIS CONVECTION TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING FOLLOWED
BY MORE TRANQUIL VFR CONDITIONS INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONCERNS FOR FLOODING CONTINUE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CURRENT PROFILES REMAIN QUITE DRY BELOW 700 MB HOWEVER
MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP
PUSH PWAT VALUES TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR BY THIS
EVENING. RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES...HAVE PRODUCED NEAR SATURATED GROUND ENOUGH TO LOWER
THE THREE HOUR FFG VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE AS A
RESULT OF HIGH RUNOFF RATES. A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH
RAINFALL WITH SPOTTY THREE INCH AMOUNTS IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE LOW FFG VALUES...LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR HEADLINES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-
BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-
MADISON-POLK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL
HYDROLOGY...MS AUG 14/DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 312122
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
422 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION BASED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND HAS LED TO SFC
BASED CAPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THE SFC INSTABILITY IS MUCH STRONGER
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THIS SHOULD BE THE
AREA FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY BE INITIALLY
SUPERCELLULAR OVER THAT REGION BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
MORE LINEAR THREAT AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA. STILL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THUS THE REASON FOR
THE INCLUSION OF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE CURRENT TORNADO
WATCH. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND POOLING OF MOISTURE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WILL ARRIVE
THIS EVENING WILL HELP STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.
STORMS INITIALLY SHOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. DEVELOPING
COLD POOLS AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT PWAT VALUES
ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY UNDER 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER
SHOULD HAVE POOLING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
WILL PUSH VALUES TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND WILL HELP LEAD TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES EXIST IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN 00-09Z WITH THE DES MOINES
METRO THREAT BETWEEN 03-07Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING STORMS OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THETA E
ADVECTION IN PLACE. SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR ALONG WITH ENERGY
ALOFT TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COULD SEE
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THIS ENERGY AS WELL...BUT MAJORITY OF
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA. STILL SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AROUND WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY SO HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE OFF THE GULF. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO 70S
WEDNESDAY...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US LATE
IN THE WEEK. SFC LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED RANGE TRYING TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT LOOKS LIKE MAIN TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FOR NOW. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WARMING TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A COOL OFF TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...31/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN. A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE STORMS. THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGINS TO SCATTER AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONCERNS FOR FLOODING CONTINUE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CURRENT PROFILES REMAIN QUITE DRY BELOW 700 MB HOWEVER
MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP
PUSH PWAT VALUES TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR BY THIS
EVENING. RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES...HAVE PRODUCED NEAR SATURATED GROUND ENOUGH TO LOWER
THE THREE HOUR FFG VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE AS A
RESULT OF HIGH RUNOFF RATES. A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH
RAINFALL WITH SPOTTY THREE INCH AMOUNTS IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE LOW FFG VALUES...LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR HEADLINES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-
BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-
MADISON-POLK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON
HYDROLOGY...MS AUG 14/DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 312122
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
422 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 422 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ARE THE PRIMARY FORECAST
CONCERNS OVERNIGHT. WARM ADVECTION BASED ELEVATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA WITH THE MAIN
FOCUS OVER THE WEST CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE. THIS HAS RESULTED
IN AN EXPANSIVE CLOUD DECK OVER CENTRAL IOWA AND HAS LED TO SFC
BASED CAPPING THROUGH THE AREA. THE SFC INSTABILITY IS MUCH STRONGER
INTO SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHEAST KANSAS AND THIS SHOULD BE THE
AREA FOR SURFACE BASED DEVELOPMENT. STORMS MAY BE INITIALLY
SUPERCELLULAR OVER THAT REGION BUT SHOULD GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO A
MORE LINEAR THREAT AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
IOWA. STILL POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THUS THE REASON FOR
THE INCLUSION OF A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES IN THE CURRENT TORNADO
WATCH. THE INSTABILITY AXIS WILL INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES AND POOLING OF MOISTURE OCCURS AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE/PV ANOMALY WILL ARRIVE
THIS EVENING WILL HELP STORMS BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT.
STORMS INITIALLY SHOULD BE MOVING NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE INSTABILITY
WHICH WILL LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS. DEVELOPING
COLD POOLS AND THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO ANOTHER ISSUE OVERNIGHT. CURRENT PWAT VALUES
ARE LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AND GENERALLY UNDER 1.5 INCHES. HOWEVER
SHOULD HAVE POOLING OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ARRIVES AND
WILL PUSH VALUES TO NEAR 1.75 INCHES AND WILL HELP LEAD TO FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS FOR WARM RAIN PROCESSES. HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR THE SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF THE AREA WHERE THE LOWEST FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE VALUES EXIST IN ADDITION TO THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL. BEST POTENTIAL WILL BE BETWEEN 00-09Z WITH THE DES MOINES
METRO THREAT BETWEEN 03-07Z.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING STORMS OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THETA E
ADVECTION IN PLACE. SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR ALONG WITH ENERGY
ALOFT TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COULD SEE
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THIS ENERGY AS WELL...BUT MAJORITY OF
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA. STILL SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AROUND WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY SO HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE OFF THE GULF. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO 70S
WEDNESDAY...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US LATE
IN THE WEEK. SFC LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED RANGE TRYING TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT LOOKS LIKE MAIN TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FOR NOW. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WARMING TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A COOL OFF TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...31/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN. A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE STORMS. THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGINS TO SCATTER AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONCERNS FOR FLOODING CONTINUE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CURRENT PROFILES REMAIN QUITE DRY BELOW 700 MB HOWEVER
MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP
PUSH PWAT VALUES TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR BY THIS
EVENING. RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES...HAVE PRODUCED NEAR SATURATED GROUND ENOUGH TO LOWER
THE THREE HOUR FFG VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE AS A
RESULT OF HIGH RUNOFF RATES. A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH
RAINFALL WITH SPOTTY THREE INCH AMOUNTS IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE LOW FFG VALUES...LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR HEADLINES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-
BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-
MADISON-POLK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON
HYDROLOGY...MS AUG 14/DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 312105
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK ENERGY STILL WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
HAS LED TO A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THAT REGION. THE STRATUS
FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE OVER CENTRAL IOWA LEADING TO SOME SFC BASED
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. HI RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ARE SUGGESTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A
SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE LIMITING FACTOR
IS THE VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND ONLY WEAK VERTICAL ASCENT. POSSIBLE
FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY FAR WESTERN
IOWA BY 12Z BUT THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THAT TIME.



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING STORMS OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THETA E
ADVECTION IN PLACE. SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR ALONG WITH ENERGY
ALOFT TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COULD SEE
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THIS ENERGY AS WELL...BUT MAJORITY OF
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA. STILL SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AROUND WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY SO HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE OFF THE GULF. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO 70S
WEDNESDAY...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US LATE
IN THE WEEK. SFC LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED RANGE TRYING TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT LOOKS LIKE MAIN TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FOR NOW. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WARMING TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A COOL OFF TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...31/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN. A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE STORMS. THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGINS TO SCATTER AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONCERNS FOR FLOODING CONTINUE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CURRENT PROFILES REMAIN QUITE DRY BELOW 700 MB HOWEVER
MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP
PUSH PWAT VALUES TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR BY THIS
EVENING. RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES...HAVE PRODUCED NEAR SATURATED GROUND ENOUGH TO LOWER
THE THREE HOUR FFG VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE AS A
RESULT OF HIGH RUNOFF RATES. A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH
RAINFALL WITH SPOTTY THREE INCH AMOUNTS IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE LOW FFG VALUES...LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR HEADLINES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-MADISON-POLK-RINGGOLD-
STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON
HYDROLOGY...MS AUG 14/DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 312105
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
405 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

WEAK ENERGY STILL WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
HAS LED TO A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THAT REGION. THE STRATUS
FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE OVER CENTRAL IOWA LEADING TO SOME SFC BASED
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. HI RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ARE SUGGESTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A
SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE LIMITING FACTOR
IS THE VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND ONLY WEAK VERTICAL ASCENT. POSSIBLE
FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY FAR WESTERN
IOWA BY 12Z BUT THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THAT TIME.



.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 405 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND BE STRETCHED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA BY MONDAY MORNING. SOME LINGERING STORMS OR
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND THETA E
ADVECTION IN PLACE. SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR ALONG WITH ENERGY
ALOFT TO SLIDE THROUGH NORTHERN IOWA/SOUTHERN MINNESOTA. COULD SEE
SOME CHANCES FOR PRECIP WITH THIS ENERGY AS WELL...BUT MAJORITY OF
PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN NORTH/EAST OF THE CWA. STILL SOME WEAK
INSTABILITY AROUND WITH COOLER AIR MOVING IN ALOFT...AND WEAK
BOUNDARY SO HAVE KEPT SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTH/EAST FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION CHANCES EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA FOR MONDAY NIGHT...AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE MOVES THROUGH
ALOFT...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY
EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION BRIEFLY.

RETURN FLOW SETS UP TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A WARM FRONT ALOFT LIFTING
NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT IS ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS. MOISTURE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE STATE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASE OFF THE GULF. COULD SEE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH THROUGH
THE CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. DEWPOINTS PUSH INTO 70S
WEDNESDAY...WITH HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE CWA. UPPER LEVEL
WAVE TO PUSH EASTWARD FROM THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE CENTRAL US LATE
IN THE WEEK. SFC LOW TO TRACK THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TO THE STATE WITH HIGH PRESSURE AND MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED
INTO THE WEEKEND. EXTENDED RANGE TRYING TO BRING A WEAK SYSTEM
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND...BUT LOOKS LIKE MAIN TRACK OF THE
SYSTEM WILL BE JUST OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST FOR NOW. AS FOR
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT WARMING TEMPS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH
TEMPS NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH A COOL OFF TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPS FOR THE WEEKEND.


&&

.AVIATION...31/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN. A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE STORMS. THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGINS TO SCATTER AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONCERNS FOR FLOODING CONTINUE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CURRENT PROFILES REMAIN QUITE DRY BELOW 700 MB HOWEVER
MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP
PUSH PWAT VALUES TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR BY THIS
EVENING. RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES...HAVE PRODUCED NEAR SATURATED GROUND ENOUGH TO LOWER
THE THREE HOUR FFG VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE AS A
RESULT OF HIGH RUNOFF RATES. A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH
RAINFALL WITH SPOTTY THREE INCH AMOUNTS IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE LOW FFG VALUES...LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR HEADLINES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BOONE-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DECATUR-GREENE-GUTHRIE-MADISON-POLK-RINGGOLD-
STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON
HYDROLOGY...MS AUG 14/DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 311742
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1242 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A COLD FRONT FROM ND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH IA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TUE. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH ABOUT
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME AREAS OF FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND MAY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN INCREASING WINDS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE FOG TO BECOME
DENSE...THOUGH WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE EAST.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN CENTRAL NE WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG A BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT PRECIPITATION
TRENDS IN NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NE. BETTER THREAT WILL COME AS
BOUNDARY NEARS...WITH MODELS INDICATING ARRIVAL NEAR MO RIVER VALLEY
NEAR 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...INCREASING AND SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AND ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CAPE VALUES WILL BE NEAR 2000 J/KG IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS. SHEAR WILL NOT BE
OPTIMIZED...BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
TO MAINTAIN...THEREFORE ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY
HAVE A THREAT TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. SOME MODELS INDICATING GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS WELL WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING
NEAR 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE. PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO
2 INCH RANGE AND DECENT CAPE WILL MAKE THE STORMS EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE STATE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OVER NIGHT OVER THE EAST.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE CWA FAIRLY EARLY ON MONDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK WILL ALSO BE PRETTY
POTENT WITH INSTABILITY AT LEAST AS HIGH AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WED AND THU WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...31/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING.
THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. STORMS WILL LIKELY HAVE STRONG
WINDS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE AND SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN HEAVY RAIN. A PERIOD OF MVFR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE
BEHIND THE STORMS. THE STRATUS SHOULD BEGINS TO SCATTER AS DRIER
AIR ARRIVES BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONCERNS FOR FLOODING CONTINUE VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. CURRENT PROFILES REMAIN QUITE DRY BELOW 700 MB HOWEVER
MOISTURE ADVECTION LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT SHOULD HELP
PUSH PWAT VALUES TO NEAR 1.6 INCHES OVER A NARROW CORRIDOR BY THIS
EVENING. RECENT RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL
COUNTIES...HAVE PRODUCED NEAR SATURATED GROUND ENOUGH TO LOWER
THE THREE HOUR FFG VALUES TO NEAR 1.5 TO 2.5 INCH RANGE AS A
RESULT OF HIGH RUNOFF RATES. A WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH
RAINFALL WITH SPOTTY THREE INCH AMOUNTS IS LIKELY OVERNIGHT.
GIVEN THE LOW FFG VALUES...LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE NEED FOR HEADLINES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS AUG 14
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS AUG 14
AVIATION...DONAVON
HYDROLOGY...MS AUG 14/DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 311106
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
606 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A COLD FRONT FROM ND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH IA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TUE. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH ABOUT
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME AREAS OF FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND MAY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN INCREASING WINDS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE FOG TO BECOME
DENSE...THOUGH WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE EAST.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN CENTRAL NE WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG A BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT PRECIPITATION
TRENDS IN NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NE. BETTER THREAT WILL COME AS
BOUNDARY NEARS...WITH MODELS INDICATING ARRIVAL NEAR MO RIVER VALLEY
NEAR 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...INCREASING AND SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AND ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CAPE VALUES WILL BE NEAR 2000 J/KG IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS. SHEAR WILL NOT BE
OPTIMIZED...BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
TO MAINTAIN...THEREFORE ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY
HAVE A THREAT TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. SOME MODELS INDICATING GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS WELL WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING
NEAR 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE. PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO
2 INCH RANGE AND DECENT CAPE WILL MAKE THE STORMS EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE STATE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OVER NIGHT OVER THE EAST.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE CWA FAIRLY EARLY ON MONDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK WILL ALSO BE PRETTY
POTENT WITH INSTABILITY AT LEAST AS HIGH AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WED AND THU WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...31/12Z
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR FG/BR AT SITES WILL LIFT QUICKLY...WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SITES IN
THE LATER AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH TSRA SPREADING TO
SITES. TSRA WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES...THOUGH HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCTS ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN TIMING OF STORMS. WORST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND BOUNDARY. BR/FG AGAIN
POSSIBLE AT SITES NEAR 12Z...ESPECIALLY SITES THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONCERNS FOR FLOODING ARE CERTAINLY THERE FOR VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLENTY OF PWAT AVAILABLE WITH DEEP CLOUD
DEPTHS TO AROUND 4400 METERS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. RECENT
RAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...HAVE
MOISENED THE GROUND SO THAT THREE HOUR FFG VALUES ARE IN THE 1.
TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. AM EXPECTED A WIDESPREAD INCH OR SO RAINFALL
AMOUNT WITH SPOTTY THREE INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY. GIVEN THE LOW FFG
VALUES...LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY. DID NOT GO WITH
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MAY NEED HEADLINES SOUTH OF U.S.
30 AND WEST OF I-35 FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN LATER PACKAGES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS AUG 14
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS AUG 14
AVIATION...AWB
HYDROLOGY...MS AUG 14




000
FXUS63 KDMX 311106
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
606 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A COLD FRONT FROM ND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH IA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TUE. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH ABOUT
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME AREAS OF FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND MAY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN INCREASING WINDS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE FOG TO BECOME
DENSE...THOUGH WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE EAST.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN CENTRAL NE WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG A BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT PRECIPITATION
TRENDS IN NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NE. BETTER THREAT WILL COME AS
BOUNDARY NEARS...WITH MODELS INDICATING ARRIVAL NEAR MO RIVER VALLEY
NEAR 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...INCREASING AND SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AND ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CAPE VALUES WILL BE NEAR 2000 J/KG IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS. SHEAR WILL NOT BE
OPTIMIZED...BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
TO MAINTAIN...THEREFORE ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY
HAVE A THREAT TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. SOME MODELS INDICATING GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS WELL WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING
NEAR 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE. PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO
2 INCH RANGE AND DECENT CAPE WILL MAKE THE STORMS EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE STATE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OVER NIGHT OVER THE EAST.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE CWA FAIRLY EARLY ON MONDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK WILL ALSO BE PRETTY
POTENT WITH INSTABILITY AT LEAST AS HIGH AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WED AND THU WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...31/12Z
ISSUED AT 602 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

EARLY MORNING MVFR/IFR FG/BR AT SITES WILL LIFT QUICKLY...WITH
WINDS BECOMING SOUTHERLY AND GUSTY IN THE LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH THROUGH SITES IN
THE LATER AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH TSRA SPREADING TO
SITES. TSRA WILL BRING MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AT
TIMES...THOUGH HAVE ONLY MENTIONED VCTS ATTM DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES
IN TIMING OF STORMS. WORST CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE AROUND 00Z.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND BOUNDARY. BR/FG AGAIN
POSSIBLE AT SITES NEAR 12Z...ESPECIALLY SITES THAT RECEIVE
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONCERNS FOR FLOODING ARE CERTAINLY THERE FOR VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLENTY OF PWAT AVAILABLE WITH DEEP CLOUD
DEPTHS TO AROUND 4400 METERS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. RECENT
RAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...HAVE
MOISENED THE GROUND SO THAT THREE HOUR FFG VALUES ARE IN THE 1.
TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. AM EXPECTED A WIDESPREAD INCH OR SO RAINFALL
AMOUNT WITH SPOTTY THREE INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY. GIVEN THE LOW FFG
VALUES...LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY. DID NOT GO WITH
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MAY NEED HEADLINES SOUTH OF U.S.
30 AND WEST OF I-35 FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN LATER PACKAGES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS AUG 14
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS AUG 14
AVIATION...AWB
HYDROLOGY...MS AUG 14





000
FXUS63 KDMX 310843
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
343 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A COLD FRONT FROM ND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH IA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TUE. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH ABOUT
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME AREAS OF FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND MAY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN INCREASING WINDS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE FOG TO BECOME
DENSE...THOUGH WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE EAST.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN CENTRAL NE WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG A BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT PRECIPITATION
TRENDS IN NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NE. BETTER THREAT WILL COME AS
BOUNDARY NEARS...WITH MODELS INDICATING ARRIVAL NEAR MO RIVER VALLEY
NEAR 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...INCREASING AND SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AND ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CAPE VALUES WILL BE NEAR 2000 J/KG IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS. SHEAR WILL NOT BE
OPTIMIZED...BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
TO MAINTAIN...THEREFORE ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY
HAVE A THREAT TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. SOME MODELS INDICATING GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS WELL WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING
NEAR 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE. PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO
2 INCH RANGE AND DECENT CAPE WILL MAKE THE STORMS EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE STATE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OVER NIGHT OVER THE EAST.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE CWA FAIRLY EARLY ON MONDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK WILL ALSO BE PRETTY
POTENT WITH INSTABILITY AT LEAST AS HIGH AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WED AND THU WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...31/06Z
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE RADIATION FOG TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NORTHWEST LATE SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
VFR ANTICIPATED MOMENTARILY BUT WITH DEWPOINTS QUITE ELEVATED
CROSSOVER TEMPS STILL SUGGEST FOG MAY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. HAVE
ADDED MVFR VSBYS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE GOING BACK TO VFR BY
15Z. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE MO RIVER DURING PEAK
HEATING PROGRESSION NW-SE ACROSS TERMINAL SITES 00-04Z. THERE MAY
ALSO BE SOME MORE ELEVATED WEAKER CONVECTION SHORTLY BEFORE THAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONCERNS FOR FLOODING ARE CERTAINLY THERE FOR VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLENTY OF PWAT AVAILABLE WITH DEEP CLOUD
DEPTHS TO AROUND 4400 METERS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. RECENT
RAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...HAVE
MOISENED THE GROUND SO THAT THREE HOUR FFG VALUES ARE IN THE 1.
TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. AM EXPECTED A WIDESPREAD INCH OR SO RAINFALL
AMOUNT WITH SPOTTY THREE INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY. GIVEN THE LOW FFG
VALUES...LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY. DID NOT GO WITH
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MAY NEED HEADLINES SOUTH OF U.S.
30 AND WEST OF I-35 FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN LATER PACKAGES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS AUG 14
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS AUG 14
AVIATION...SMALL
HYDROLOGY...MS AUG 14




000
FXUS63 KDMX 310843
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
343 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A COLD FRONT FROM ND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL MOVE THROUGH IA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TUE. AN ACTIVE
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TO PASS THROUGH ABOUT
FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

GIVEN AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS...SOME AREAS OF FOG
HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AND MAY
BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN INCREASING WINDS...DO NOT ANTICIPATE FOG TO BECOME
DENSE...THOUGH WILL LINGER A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE EAST.

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION TRENDS...AND
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED
IN CENTRAL NE WILL PUSH EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY...THIS WILL BE
THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...HIGH RES MODELS ARE INDICATING A CHANCE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE MORNING/EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON
ALONG A BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE
AHEAD OF BOUNDARY. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN CURRENT PRECIPITATION
TRENDS IN NORTHERN KS/SOUTHERN NE. BETTER THREAT WILL COME AS
BOUNDARY NEARS...WITH MODELS INDICATING ARRIVAL NEAR MO RIVER VALLEY
NEAR 00Z. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY BEGINNING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON...INCREASING AND SPREADING
EASTWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM THROUGHOUT
THE DAY...AND ALSO WILL ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. CAPE VALUES WILL BE NEAR 2000 J/KG IN
THE EARLY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS. SHEAR WILL NOT BE
OPTIMIZED...BUT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP
TO MAINTAIN...THEREFORE ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP THROUGHOUT THE DAY
HAVE A THREAT TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
THE MAIN THREATS. SOME MODELS INDICATING GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH STORMS AS WELL WITH PWAT VALUES REMAINING
NEAR 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE TONIGHT IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION
WITH DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL BE IN PLACE. PWAT VALUES IN THE 1.5 TO
2 INCH RANGE AND DECENT CAPE WILL MAKE THE STORMS EFFICIENT RAIN
PRODUCERS. SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES WILL BE BEST ACROSS THE WEST
HALF OF THE STATE LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH LOWER
PROBABILITIES OVER NIGHT OVER THE EAST.

EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO EXIT THE CWA FAIRLY EARLY ON MONDAY WITH
COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING WITH HIGH PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEK WILL ALSO BE PRETTY
POTENT WITH INSTABILITY AT LEAST AS HIGH AS THE CURRENT SYSTEM.
THIS SYSTEM WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE
WEATHER ONCE AGAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM WELL ABOVE NORMAL
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH WED AND THU WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

A STRONGER PUSH OF COOLER AIR WILL FOLLOW THIS COLD FRONT WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...31/06Z
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE RADIATION FOG TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NORTHWEST LATE SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
VFR ANTICIPATED MOMENTARILY BUT WITH DEWPOINTS QUITE ELEVATED
CROSSOVER TEMPS STILL SUGGEST FOG MAY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. HAVE
ADDED MVFR VSBYS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE GOING BACK TO VFR BY
15Z. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE MO RIVER DURING PEAK
HEATING PROGRESSION NW-SE ACROSS TERMINAL SITES 00-04Z. THERE MAY
ALSO BE SOME MORE ELEVATED WEAKER CONVECTION SHORTLY BEFORE THAT.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

CONCERNS FOR FLOODING ARE CERTAINLY THERE FOR VERY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PLENTY OF PWAT AVAILABLE WITH DEEP CLOUD
DEPTHS TO AROUND 4400 METERS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. RECENT
RAINS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...HAVE
MOISENED THE GROUND SO THAT THREE HOUR FFG VALUES ARE IN THE 1.
TO 2.5 INCH RANGE. AM EXPECTED A WIDESPREAD INCH OR SO RAINFALL
AMOUNT WITH SPOTTY THREE INCH AMOUNTS LIKELY. GIVEN THE LOW FFG
VALUES...LOCAL FLASH FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY. DID NOT GO WITH
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME...HOWEVER MAY NEED HEADLINES SOUTH OF U.S.
30 AND WEST OF I-35 FOR LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN LATER PACKAGES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS AUG 14
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS AUG 14
AVIATION...SMALL
HYDROLOGY...MS AUG 14





000
FXUS63 KDMX 310503
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1203 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK ENERGY STILL WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
HAS LED TO A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THAT REGION. THE STRATUS
FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE OVER CENTRAL IOWA LEADING TO SOME SFC BASED
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. HI RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ARE SUGGESTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A
SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE LIMITING FACTOR
IS THE VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND ONLY WEAK VERTICAL ASCENT. POSSIBLE
FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY FAR WESTERN
IOWA BY 12Z BUT THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS SITUATED
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH SOME WEAK
THETA E ADVECTION...SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE STRONGER FORCING
EXPECTED AS MAIN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THETA E ADVECTION SUGGEST GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE TOWARD MID/LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE THE TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
STATE. DECENT CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE. PWATS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. STORM MOTIONS
ALSO EXPECTED ON THE SLOWER SIDE AT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WITH A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER FREEZING LEVEL. ALSO LOOKS LIKE A FEW ROUNDS OF
STORMS COULD IMPACT THE NORTH...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HYDRO
CONCERNS AS WELL. SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MAYBE A FEW LINGERING STORMS IN THE EAST EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BRIEFLY INTO THE STATE FOR
MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT ACTIVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH FAST WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT. TEMPS
ALOFT WARM INTO MID/LATE WEEK WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE STATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT STALLING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA...AND THEN PUSHING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TOWARD WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...31/06Z
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE RADIATION FOG TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NORTHWEST LATE SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
VFR ANTICIPATED MOMENTARILY BUT WITH DEWPOINTS QUITE ELEVATED
CROSSOVER TEMPS STILL SUGGEST FOG MAY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. HAVE
ADDED MVFR VSBYS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE GOING BACK TO VFR BY
15Z. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE MO RIVER DURING PEAK
HEATING PROGRESSION NW-SE ACROSS TERMINAL SITES 00-04Z. THERE MAY
ALSO BE SOME MORE ELEVATED WEAKER CONVECTION SHORTLY BEFORE THAT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 310503
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1203 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK ENERGY STILL WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
HAS LED TO A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THAT REGION. THE STRATUS
FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE OVER CENTRAL IOWA LEADING TO SOME SFC BASED
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. HI RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ARE SUGGESTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A
SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE LIMITING FACTOR
IS THE VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND ONLY WEAK VERTICAL ASCENT. POSSIBLE
FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY FAR WESTERN
IOWA BY 12Z BUT THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS SITUATED
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH SOME WEAK
THETA E ADVECTION...SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE STRONGER FORCING
EXPECTED AS MAIN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THETA E ADVECTION SUGGEST GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE TOWARD MID/LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE THE TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
STATE. DECENT CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE. PWATS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. STORM MOTIONS
ALSO EXPECTED ON THE SLOWER SIDE AT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WITH A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER FREEZING LEVEL. ALSO LOOKS LIKE A FEW ROUNDS OF
STORMS COULD IMPACT THE NORTH...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HYDRO
CONCERNS AS WELL. SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MAYBE A FEW LINGERING STORMS IN THE EAST EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BRIEFLY INTO THE STATE FOR
MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT ACTIVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH FAST WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT. TEMPS
ALOFT WARM INTO MID/LATE WEEK WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE STATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT STALLING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA...AND THEN PUSHING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TOWARD WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...31/06Z
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SUN AUG 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE RADIATION FOG TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NORTHWEST LATE SUN AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.
VFR ANTICIPATED MOMENTARILY BUT WITH DEWPOINTS QUITE ELEVATED
CROSSOVER TEMPS STILL SUGGEST FOG MAY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. HAVE
ADDED MVFR VSBYS FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE GOING BACK TO VFR BY
15Z. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE MO RIVER DURING PEAK
HEATING PROGRESSION NW-SE ACROSS TERMINAL SITES 00-04Z. THERE MAY
ALSO BE SOME MORE ELEVATED WEAKER CONVECTION SHORTLY BEFORE THAT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 302359
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
659 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK ENERGY STILL WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
HAS LED TO A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THAT REGION. THE STRATUS
FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE OVER CENTRAL IOWA LEADING TO SOME SFC BASED
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. HI RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ARE SUGGESTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A
SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE LIMITING FACTOR
IS THE VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND ONLY WEAK VERTICAL ASCENT. POSSIBLE
FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY FAR WESTERN
IOWA BY 12Z BUT THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THAT TIME.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS SITUATED
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH SOME WEAK
THETA E ADVECTION...SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE STRONGER FORCING
EXPECTED AS MAIN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THETA E ADVECTION SUGGEST GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE TOWARD MID/LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE THE TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
STATE. DECENT CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE. PWATS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. STORM MOTIONS
ALSO EXPECTED ON THE SLOWER SIDE AT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WITH A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER FREEZING LEVEL. ALSO LOOKS LIKE A FEW ROUNDS OF
STORMS COULD IMPACT THE NORTH...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HYDRO
CONCERNS AS WELL. SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MAYBE A FEW LINGERING STORMS IN THE EAST EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BRIEFLY INTO THE STATE FOR
MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT ACTIVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH FAST WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT. TEMPS
ALOFT WARM INTO MID/LATE WEEK WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE STATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT STALLING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA...AND THEN PUSHING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TOWARD WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

&&

.AVIATION...31/00Z
ISSUED AT 659 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE RADIATION FOG TRENDS OVERNIGHT AND
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL NORTHWEST LATE SUN AFTERNOON. VFR...CLEARING
SKIES ANTICIPATED INTO THE EVENING BUT WITH DEWPOINTS QUITE
ELEVATED CROSSOVER TEMPS SUGGEST FOG MAY FORM TOWARD SUNRISE. HAVE
ADDED MVFR/ISOLD IFR VSBYS FOR SEVERAL HOURS...GOING BACK TO VFR
BY 15Z. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE MO RIVER DURING
PEAK HEATING...POSSIBLE REACHING KFOD/KMCW LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 302056
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
356 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK ENERGY STILL WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
HAS LED TO A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THAT REGION. THE STRATUS
FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE OVER CENTRAL IOWA LEADING TO SOME SFC BASED
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. HI RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ARE SUGGESTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A
SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE LIMITING FACTOR
IS THE VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND ONLY WEAK VERTICAL ASCENT. POSSIBLE
FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY FAR WESTERN
IOWA BY 12Z BUT THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THAT TIME.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS SITUATED
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH SOME WEAK
THETA E ADVECTION...SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE STRONGER FORCING
EXPECTED AS MAIN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THETA E ADVECTION SUGGEST GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE TOWARD MID/LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE THE TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
STATE. DECENT CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE. PWATS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. STORM MOTIONS
ALSO EXPECTED ON THE SLOWER SIDE AT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WITH A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER FREEZING LEVEL. ALSO LOOKS LIKE A FEW ROUNDS OF
STORMS COULD IMPACT THE NORTH...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HYDRO
CONCERNS AS WELL. SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MAYBE A FEW LINGERING STORMS IN THE EAST EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BRIEFLY INTO THE STATE FOR
MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT ACTIVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH FAST WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT. TEMPS
ALOFT WARM INTO MID/LATE WEEK WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE STATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT STALLING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA...AND THEN PUSHING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TOWARD WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.


&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK REMAINS EXPANSIVE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THOUGH IT
IS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BECOMING MORE CELLULAR. THE STATUS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 302056
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
356 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK ENERGY STILL WRAPPING AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER
MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN AND INTO NORTHEAST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
HAS LED TO A FEW SHOWERS TO DEVELOP OVER THAT REGION. THE STRATUS
FIELD CONTINUES TO ERODE OVER CENTRAL IOWA LEADING TO SOME SFC BASED
INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP. HI RESOLUTION SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ARE SUGGESTING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS A
SURGE OF THETA-E ADVECTION MOVES INTO THE STATE. THE LIMITING FACTOR
IS THE VERY DRY MID LEVELS AND ONLY WEAK VERTICAL ASCENT. POSSIBLE
FOR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT BEFORE ENDING.
IMPRESSIVE UPPER JET MOVING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE MISSOURI VALLEY LATE TONIGHT. A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX
FROM THE WEST MAY REACH EASTERN NEBRASKA AND POSSIBLY FAR WESTERN
IOWA BY 12Z BUT THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH THAT TIME.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MAIN FOCUS IN THE EXTENDED WILL BE ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL WAVE DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND
PUSHING THROUGH THE REGION LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. SOUTHERLY
FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE WAVE WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS SITUATED
JUST TO THE WEST OF THE STATE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WEAK ENERGY ALOFT
AHEAD OF THE MAIN WAVE TO MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH SOME WEAK
THETA E ADVECTION...SO SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE NORTH MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE STRONGER FORCING
EXPECTED AS MAIN SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WITH STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND THETA E ADVECTION SUGGEST GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BE TOWARD MID/LATE EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE THE TROUGH AXIS/COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE
STATE. DECENT CAPE/SHEAR SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR ALL MODES OF SEVERE
WEATHER...WITH A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN ALSO POSSIBLE. PWATS EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 1.5 TO 1.9 INCH RANGE ACROSS THE CWA. STORM MOTIONS
ALSO EXPECTED ON THE SLOWER SIDE AT AROUND 20 TO 25 KTS WITH A
SOMEWHAT HIGHER FREEZING LEVEL. ALSO LOOKS LIKE A FEW ROUNDS OF
STORMS COULD IMPACT THE NORTH...SO WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR HYDRO
CONCERNS AS WELL. SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH MAYBE A FEW LINGERING STORMS IN THE EAST EARLY MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE STATE BRIEFLY INTO THE STATE FOR
MONDAY...BUT OVERALL PATTERN REMAINS SOMEWHAT ACTIVE THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND WITH FAST WESTERLY TO
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND WEAK IMPULSES MOVING THROUGH ALOFT. TEMPS
ALOFT WARM INTO MID/LATE WEEK WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH
THE STATE THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH THE FRONT STALLING
JUST TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA...AND THEN PUSHING BACK NORTH AS A WARM
FRONT TOWARD WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MAX TEMPS EXPECTED TO BE
MAINLY IN THE 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.


&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK REMAINS EXPANSIVE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THOUGH IT
IS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BECOMING MORE CELLULAR. THE STATUS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 301736
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE TODAY WITH WEAK RIDGE PASSING
OVER IA THIS EVENING. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH IA MON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH LINGERING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE EAST IN THE MORNING HOURS. SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST...BRINGING A MUCH NEEDED DRY DAY FOR CENTRAL IOWA TODAY. GIVEN
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE KEPT FOG MENTION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG IN THE WEST WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL HELP LIMIT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG MENTION OUT
ATTM...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ALSO GIVEN AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE HAVE KEPT CLOUDS A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
AS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WORK IN AND WILL SEE
CLEARING. WAA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGHS NEAR GOING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION SETS IN TONIGHT AND DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
OVER THAT FOR LATE TONIGHT AS LLJ BEGINS TO PICK UP. WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR THE LATER FORECASTS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THIS
PACKAGE WILL BE LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND DECENT DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. FEEL THE WINDOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
NARROW WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES...AND THE K INDEX EXCEEDING 40.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...MILD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH A GOOD PAT OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE FOR THE MID PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT FRI OR SAT INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK REMAINS EXPANSIVE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THOUGH IT
IS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BECOMING MORE CELLULAR. THE STATUS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS AUG 14
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS AUG 14
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 301736
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE TODAY WITH WEAK RIDGE PASSING
OVER IA THIS EVENING. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH IA MON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH LINGERING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE EAST IN THE MORNING HOURS. SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST...BRINGING A MUCH NEEDED DRY DAY FOR CENTRAL IOWA TODAY. GIVEN
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE KEPT FOG MENTION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG IN THE WEST WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL HELP LIMIT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG MENTION OUT
ATTM...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ALSO GIVEN AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE HAVE KEPT CLOUDS A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
AS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WORK IN AND WILL SEE
CLEARING. WAA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGHS NEAR GOING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION SETS IN TONIGHT AND DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
OVER THAT FOR LATE TONIGHT AS LLJ BEGINS TO PICK UP. WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR THE LATER FORECASTS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THIS
PACKAGE WILL BE LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND DECENT DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. FEEL THE WINDOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
NARROW WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES...AND THE K INDEX EXCEEDING 40.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...MILD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH A GOOD PAT OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE FOR THE MID PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT FRI OR SAT INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1236 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

MVFR STRATUS DECK REMAINS EXPANSIVE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THOUGH IT
IS GRADUALLY LIFTING AND BECOMING MORE CELLULAR. THE STATUS SHOULD
CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG OVERNIGHT BUT CHANCE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH YET TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS
DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING UNDER VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS AUG 14
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS AUG 14
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301130
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
630 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE TODAY WITH WEAK RIDGE PASSING
OVER IA THIS EVENING. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH IA MON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH LINGERING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE EAST IN THE MORNING HOURS. SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST...BRINGING A MUCH NEEDED DRY DAY FOR CENTRAL IOWA TODAY. GIVEN
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE KEPT FOG MENTION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG IN THE WEST WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL HELP LIMIT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG MENTION OUT
ATTM...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ALSO GIVEN AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE HAVE KEPT CLOUDS A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
AS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WORK IN AND WILL SEE
CLEARING. WAA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGHS NEAR GOING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION SETS IN TONIGHT AND DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
OVER THAT FOR LATE TONIGHT AS LLJ BEGINS TO PICK UP. WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR THE LATER FORECASTS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THIS
PACKAGE WILL BE LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND DECENT DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. FEEL THE WINDOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
NARROW WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES...AND THE K INDEX EXCEEDING 40.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...MILD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH A GOOD PAT OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE FOR THE MID PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT FRI OR SAT INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH LOW MVFR AND IFR STRATUS PUSHING SE INTO
SITES...ALONG WITH MVFR BR. THIS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS LIFTING BY 18Z. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY...DECREASING AFTER 00Z
AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE MAY
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL MVFR OR LOWER BR/FG AT SITES NEAR END OF
PERIOD...THOUGH HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT ATTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS AUG 14
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS AUG 14
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 301130
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
630 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE TODAY WITH WEAK RIDGE PASSING
OVER IA THIS EVENING. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH IA MON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH LINGERING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE EAST IN THE MORNING HOURS. SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST...BRINGING A MUCH NEEDED DRY DAY FOR CENTRAL IOWA TODAY. GIVEN
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE KEPT FOG MENTION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG IN THE WEST WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL HELP LIMIT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG MENTION OUT
ATTM...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ALSO GIVEN AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE HAVE KEPT CLOUDS A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
AS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WORK IN AND WILL SEE
CLEARING. WAA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGHS NEAR GOING.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION SETS IN TONIGHT AND DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
OVER THAT FOR LATE TONIGHT AS LLJ BEGINS TO PICK UP. WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR THE LATER FORECASTS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THIS
PACKAGE WILL BE LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND DECENT DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. FEEL THE WINDOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
NARROW WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES...AND THE K INDEX EXCEEDING 40.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...MILD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH A GOOD PAT OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE FOR THE MID PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT FRI OR SAT INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EAST OF THE
AREA...WITH LOW MVFR AND IFR STRATUS PUSHING SE INTO
SITES...ALONG WITH MVFR BR. THIS WILL LIFT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...WITH LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS LIFTING BY 18Z. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE DAY...DECREASING AFTER 00Z
AND BECOMING MORE SOUTHERLY. LIGHT WINDS AND AMPLE MOISTURE MAY
ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL MVFR OR LOWER BR/FG AT SITES NEAR END OF
PERIOD...THOUGH HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT ATTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS AUG 14
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS AUG 14
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300831
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
331 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE TODAY WITH WEAK RIDGE PASSING
OVER IA THIS EVENING. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH IA MON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH LINGERING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE EAST IN THE MORNING HOURS. SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST...BRINGING A MUCH NEEDED DRY DAY FOR CENTRAL IOWA TODAY. GIVEN
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE KEPT FOG MENTION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG IN THE WEST WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL HELP LIMIT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG MENTION OUT
ATTM...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ALSO GIVEN AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE HAVE KEPT CLOUDS A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
AS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WORK IN AND WILL SEE
CLEARING. WAA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGHS NEAR GOING.


.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION SETS IN TONIGHT AND DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
OVER THAT FOR LATE TONIGHT AS LLJ BEGINS TO PICK UP. WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR THE LATER FORECASTS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THIS
PACKAGE WILL BE LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND DECENT DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EXPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. FEEL THE WINDOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
NARROW WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES...AND THE K INDEX EXCEEDING 40.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...MILD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH A GOOD PAT OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE FOR THE MID PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT FRI OR SAT INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CIGS AND VSBY TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH SAT
MORNING AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED CONVECTION PASSES
THROUGH IA. CONDITIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE STATE AT 05Z
RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS
LOW...GENERALLY KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS GOING
THROUGH 09Z OR SO AS SYSTEM EXITS. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WEAK
BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IA AT THE MOMENT AND
COINCIDENT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO LOWERED
CIGS/VSBYS BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL REBOUND INTO VFR CONDITIONS
LATER SAT. CATEGORY CONFIDENCE LOW SO STARTED WITH IFR/MVFR
ALTHOUGH EITHER SIDE OF THAT MAY OCCUR.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS AUG 14
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS AUG 14
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300831
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
331 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

WEAK COLD FRONT WILL EXIT THE STATE TODAY WITH WEAK RIDGE PASSING
OVER IA THIS EVENING. NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND PASS THROUGH IA MON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTER THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...

ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO PULL EASTWARD THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS...WITH LINGERING LIGHTER PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTH AND THE EAST IN THE MORNING HOURS. SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH
EAST...BRINGING A MUCH NEEDED DRY DAY FOR CENTRAL IOWA TODAY. GIVEN
AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAVE KEPT FOG MENTION THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG IN THE WEST WHERE
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE
CLOUDS WILL HELP LIMIT FOG...AND HAVE LEFT DENSE FOG MENTION OUT
ATTM...THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ALSO GIVEN AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE HAVE KEPT CLOUDS A BIT LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH
AS SYSTEM PUSHES EAST MID LEVEL DRY AIR WILL WORK IN AND WILL SEE
CLEARING. WAA WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN THE SOUTH AND WEST IN THE
LATE AFTERNOON...AND HAVE THEREFORE KEPT HIGHS NEAR GOING.


.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION SETS IN TONIGHT AND DO HAVE SOME CONCERN
OVER THAT FOR LATE TONIGHT AS LLJ BEGINS TO PICK UP. WILL NEED TO
BE WATCHED FOR THE LATER FORECASTS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME
ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN WEATHER STORY FOR THIS
PACKAGE WILL BE LATE SUN AFTERNOON AND SUN NIGHT. WITH THE
PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AND DECENT DYNAMICS IN PLACE...STRONG
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EXPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. FEEL THE WINDOW WILL BE SOMEWHAT
NARROW WITH THE VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE...PWATS APPROACHING 2
INCHES...AND THE K INDEX EXCEEDING 40.

FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...MILD AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH
TEMPS ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH A GOOD PAT OF THE WEEK. RAIN CHANCES
WILL DECREASE FOR THE MID PART OF THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT FRI OR SAT INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CIGS AND VSBY TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH SAT
MORNING AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED CONVECTION PASSES
THROUGH IA. CONDITIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE STATE AT 05Z
RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS
LOW...GENERALLY KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS GOING
THROUGH 09Z OR SO AS SYSTEM EXITS. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WEAK
BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IA AT THE MOMENT AND
COINCIDENT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO LOWERED
CIGS/VSBYS BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL REBOUND INTO VFR CONDITIONS
LATER SAT. CATEGORY CONFIDENCE LOW SO STARTED WITH IFR/MVFR
ALTHOUGH EITHER SIDE OF THAT MAY OCCUR.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS AUG 14
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...MS AUG 14
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 300514
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1214 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH FEATURE
THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING TO OUR WEST THE LAST DAY OR TWO FINALLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF THE TROUGH COINCIDENT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE FINALLY FADING OUT AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED MOSTLY 50 TO 80 POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AXIS WHERE CELL MOTION IS QUITE SLOW...HOWEVER THIS THREAT
WILL BE ISOLATED AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. LIKEWISE
DIURNAL HEATING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR IMPRESSIVE DESTABILIZATION AND THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL HERE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT AGAIN NO
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LONG AWAITED SHORT BREAK FROM THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE EARLY
SATURDAY...AS THIS WEEKS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE FINALLY MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK WAVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW...BUT OVERALL A NICE
CHANGE FROM THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY. A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOT CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE RIDGE RECEDES TO THE EAST...STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A RATHER STRONG
H500 SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...
DEW POINTS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH THE QUICK WARM UP...
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL AGAIN
RISE TO LEVELS OF CONCERN...WITH SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL INCREASING
ACROSS THE WEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL IOWA IN THE EVENING. THOUGH WIND FIELDS
ALOFT ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT...THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
40 TO 50KT WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN BY LATE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES BY LATE DAY AND EVENING. WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS AGAIN ARE MAXIMIZED TO NEARLY 13KFT BY LATE AFTERNOON
WEST AND CENTRAL. CURRENT BUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FOR 21Z
SUNDAY SHOW A DRY LAYER THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS WITH SOME
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...THOUGH GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. LOOKING
AT THE GFS 12Z MODEL DATA...0-3KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS BECOME MORE
PERPENDICULAR TO THE EXPECTED LINE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
EVENING...SUGGESTING THAT BOWING LINEAR SEGMENTS AND A FASTER
MOVING LINE OF STORMS WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL OF WIND DAMAGE MAY
DEVELOP AFTER SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS AND ANY LINEAR SEGMENTS
MERGE. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO +2 INCHES NEARER THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST...AND EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FASTER
MOVING STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING...RAINFALL RATES AND
AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE ON THE MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SIDE DUE TO
THE PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWATS. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL AGAIN PUSH STREAMS AND RIVERS UP AND
PERHAPS CAUSE SOME URBAN STREET OR FIELD FLOODING...BUT THE 36
HOUR BREAK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WILL HELP
MITIGATE THE SITUATION.

BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SLIGHTLY LESS CERTAINTY
REGARDING NEXT WEEKS PATTERN...BUT TWO THEMES ARE BEGINNING TO
EMERGE.  FIRST...BOTH THE GFS/EURO SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING
WAVE WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION THE MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY...PRIOR TO THE SOUTHEAST US H500 RIDGE BUILDING BACK WEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE
WESTERLIES RETREAT FARTHER NORTH...H500 HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM AROUND 580DM MONDAY TO NEARLY 592DM BY 00Z FRIDAY. TEMPS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE HEAVIER
RAIN THREAT TO NORTHERN IOWA AND STATES NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...AND HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE WARMING TEMPS THAN LACK OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SO DO EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES PUSHING TOWARD 90
DEGREES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO 80S FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CIGS AND VSBY TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH SAT
MORNING AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED CONVECTION PASSES
THROUGH IA. CONDITIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE STATE AT 05Z
RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS
LOW...GENERALLY KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS GOING
THROUGH 09Z OR SO AS SYSTEM EXITS. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WEAK
BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IA AT THE MOMENT AND
COINCIDENT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO LOWERED
CIGS/VSBYS BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL REBOUND INTO VFR CONDITIONS
LATER SAT. CATEGORY CONFIDENCE LOW SO STARTED WITH IFR/MVFR
ALTHOUGH EITHER SIDE OF THAT MAY OCCUR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SIMILAR CONCERNS AS PAST FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE REGION CONTINUES
NEARLY SATURATED...WITH SOME LOCATIONS NOT HAVING MUCH ROOM FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BEFORE RUNOFF MAY BECOME A PROBLEM. SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA COULD TAKE A BIT MORE...FORTUNATELY
THE CURRENT STORMS ARE WORKING NORTH ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LATER THIS EVENING COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
PROBLEMS OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH FIELD PONDING/MINOR FLOODING
IN RURAL AND URBAN AREAS THE MAIN CONCERNS. WILL BE MONITORING FOR
ANY MORE ORGANIZED THREAT THIS EVENING. BY SUNDAY EVENING...MORE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED. WITH NEARLY 36 HOURS OF
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 12Z SAT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z SUNDAY...
SOILS SHOULD BETTER BE ABLE TO HANDLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES NOW NEAR DSM AND POTENTIALLY SOME
ADDITIONAL RIVERS/STREAMS RISING TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FS OVER THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL
HYDROLOGY...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 300514
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1214 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH FEATURE
THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING TO OUR WEST THE LAST DAY OR TWO FINALLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF THE TROUGH COINCIDENT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE FINALLY FADING OUT AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED MOSTLY 50 TO 80 POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AXIS WHERE CELL MOTION IS QUITE SLOW...HOWEVER THIS THREAT
WILL BE ISOLATED AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. LIKEWISE
DIURNAL HEATING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR IMPRESSIVE DESTABILIZATION AND THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL HERE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT AGAIN NO
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LONG AWAITED SHORT BREAK FROM THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE EARLY
SATURDAY...AS THIS WEEKS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE FINALLY MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK WAVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW...BUT OVERALL A NICE
CHANGE FROM THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY. A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOT CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE RIDGE RECEDES TO THE EAST...STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A RATHER STRONG
H500 SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...
DEW POINTS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH THE QUICK WARM UP...
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL AGAIN
RISE TO LEVELS OF CONCERN...WITH SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL INCREASING
ACROSS THE WEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL IOWA IN THE EVENING. THOUGH WIND FIELDS
ALOFT ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT...THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
40 TO 50KT WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN BY LATE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES BY LATE DAY AND EVENING. WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS AGAIN ARE MAXIMIZED TO NEARLY 13KFT BY LATE AFTERNOON
WEST AND CENTRAL. CURRENT BUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FOR 21Z
SUNDAY SHOW A DRY LAYER THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS WITH SOME
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...THOUGH GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. LOOKING
AT THE GFS 12Z MODEL DATA...0-3KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS BECOME MORE
PERPENDICULAR TO THE EXPECTED LINE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
EVENING...SUGGESTING THAT BOWING LINEAR SEGMENTS AND A FASTER
MOVING LINE OF STORMS WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL OF WIND DAMAGE MAY
DEVELOP AFTER SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS AND ANY LINEAR SEGMENTS
MERGE. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO +2 INCHES NEARER THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST...AND EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FASTER
MOVING STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING...RAINFALL RATES AND
AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE ON THE MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SIDE DUE TO
THE PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWATS. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL AGAIN PUSH STREAMS AND RIVERS UP AND
PERHAPS CAUSE SOME URBAN STREET OR FIELD FLOODING...BUT THE 36
HOUR BREAK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WILL HELP
MITIGATE THE SITUATION.

BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SLIGHTLY LESS CERTAINTY
REGARDING NEXT WEEKS PATTERN...BUT TWO THEMES ARE BEGINNING TO
EMERGE.  FIRST...BOTH THE GFS/EURO SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING
WAVE WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION THE MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY...PRIOR TO THE SOUTHEAST US H500 RIDGE BUILDING BACK WEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE
WESTERLIES RETREAT FARTHER NORTH...H500 HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM AROUND 580DM MONDAY TO NEARLY 592DM BY 00Z FRIDAY. TEMPS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE HEAVIER
RAIN THREAT TO NORTHERN IOWA AND STATES NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...AND HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE WARMING TEMPS THAN LACK OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SO DO EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES PUSHING TOWARD 90
DEGREES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO 80S FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1214 AM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

CIGS AND VSBY TRENDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH SAT
MORNING AS UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED CONVECTION PASSES
THROUGH IA. CONDITIONS ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE STATE AT 05Z
RANGING FROM LIFR TO VFR. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS
LOW...GENERALLY KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS GOING
THROUGH 09Z OR SO AS SYSTEM EXITS. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WEAK
BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH PASSING THROUGH CENTRAL IA AT THE MOMENT AND
COINCIDENT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO LOWERED
CIGS/VSBYS BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL REBOUND INTO VFR CONDITIONS
LATER SAT. CATEGORY CONFIDENCE LOW SO STARTED WITH IFR/MVFR
ALTHOUGH EITHER SIDE OF THAT MAY OCCUR.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SIMILAR CONCERNS AS PAST FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE REGION CONTINUES
NEARLY SATURATED...WITH SOME LOCATIONS NOT HAVING MUCH ROOM FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BEFORE RUNOFF MAY BECOME A PROBLEM. SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA COULD TAKE A BIT MORE...FORTUNATELY
THE CURRENT STORMS ARE WORKING NORTH ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LATER THIS EVENING COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
PROBLEMS OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH FIELD PONDING/MINOR FLOODING
IN RURAL AND URBAN AREAS THE MAIN CONCERNS. WILL BE MONITORING FOR
ANY MORE ORGANIZED THREAT THIS EVENING. BY SUNDAY EVENING...MORE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED. WITH NEARLY 36 HOURS OF
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 12Z SAT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z SUNDAY...
SOILS SHOULD BETTER BE ABLE TO HANDLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES NOW NEAR DSM AND POTENTIALLY SOME
ADDITIONAL RIVERS/STREAMS RISING TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FS OVER THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL
HYDROLOGY...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300013
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
713 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH FEATURE
THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING TO OUR WEST THE LAST DAY OR TWO FINALLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF THE TROUGH COINCIDENT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE FINALLY FADING OUT AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED MOSTLY 50 TO 80 POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AXIS WHERE CELL MOTION IS QUITE SLOW...HOWEVER THIS THREAT
WILL BE ISOLATED AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. LIKEWISE
DIURNAL HEATING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR IMPRESSIVE DESTABILIZATION AND THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL HERE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT AGAIN NO
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LONG AWAITED SHORT BREAK FROM THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE EARLY
SATURDAY...AS THIS WEEKS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE FINALLY MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK WAVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW...BUT OVERALL A NICE
CHANGE FROM THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY. A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOT CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE RIDGE RECEDES TO THE EAST...STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A RATHER STRONG
H500 SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...
DEW POINTS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH THE QUICK WARM UP...
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL AGAIN
RISE TO LEVELS OF CONCERN...WITH SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL INCREASING
ACROSS THE WEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL IOWA IN THE EVENING. THOUGH WIND FIELDS
ALOFT ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT...THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
40 TO 50KT WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN BY LATE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES BY LATE DAY AND EVENING. WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS AGAIN ARE MAXIMIZED TO NEARLY 13KFT BY LATE AFTERNOON
WEST AND CENTRAL. CURRENT BUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FOR 21Z
SUNDAY SHOW A DRY LAYER THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS WITH SOME
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...THOUGH GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. LOOKING
AT THE GFS 12Z MODEL DATA...0-3KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS BECOME MORE
PERPENDICULAR TO THE EXPECTED LINE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
EVENING...SUGGESTING THAT BOWING LINEAR SEGMENTS AND A FASTER
MOVING LINE OF STORMS WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL OF WIND DAMAGE MAY
DEVELOP AFTER SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS AND ANY LINEAR SEGMENTS
MERGE. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO +2 INCHES NEARER THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST...AND EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FASTER
MOVING STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING...RAINFALL RATES AND
AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE ON THE MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SIDE DUE TO
THE PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWATS. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL AGAIN PUSH STREAMS AND RIVERS UP AND
PERHAPS CAUSE SOME URBAN STREET OR FIELD FLOODING...BUT THE 36
HOUR BREAK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WILL HELP
MITIGATE THE SITUATION.

BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SLIGHTLY LESS CERTAINTY
REGARDING NEXT WEEKS PATTERN...BUT TWO THEMES ARE BEGINNING TO
EMERGE.  FIRST...BOTH THE GFS/EURO SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING
WAVE WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION THE MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY...PRIOR TO THE SOUTHEAST US H500 RIDGE BUILDING BACK WEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE
WESTERLIES RETREAT FARTHER NORTH...H500 HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM AROUND 580DM MONDAY TO NEARLY 592DM BY 00Z FRIDAY. TEMPS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE HEAVIER
RAIN THREAT TO NORTHERN IOWA AND STATES NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...AND HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE WARMING TEMPS THAN LACK OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SO DO EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES PUSHING TOWARD 90
DEGREES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO 80S FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ALL ELEMENTS WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH SAT MORNING AS UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED CONVECTION PASSES THROUGH IA. CONDITIONS
ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE STATE AT 00Z RANGING FROM IFR TO
VFR. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW...GENERALLY KEPT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY VCSH
WORDING INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WEAK TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH
SURFACE REFLECTION OF SYSTEM COINCIDENT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
REBOUND INTO VFR CONDITIONS LATER SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SIMILAR CONCERNS AS PAST FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE REGION CONTINUES
NEARLY SATURATED...WITH SOME LOCATIONS NOT HAVING MUCH ROOM FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BEFORE RUNOFF MAY BECOME A PROBLEM. SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA COULD TAKE A BIT MORE...FORTUNATELY
THE CURRENT STORMS ARE WORKING NORTH ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LATER THIS EVENING COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
PROBLEMS OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH FIELD PONDING/MINOR FLOODING
IN RURAL AND URBAN AREAS THE MAIN CONCERNS. WILL BE MONITORING FOR
ANY MORE ORGANIZED THREAT THIS EVENING. BY SUNDAY EVENING...MORE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED. WITH NEARLY 36 HOURS OF
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 12Z SAT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z SUNDAY...
SOILS SHOULD BETTER BE ABLE TO HANDLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES NOW NEAR DSM AND POTENTIALLY SOME
ADDITIONAL RIVERS/STREAMS RISING TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FS OVER THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL
HYDROLOGY...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300013
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
713 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ANOTHER ACTIVE NIGHT IS IN STORE AS THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH FEATURE
THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING TO OUR WEST THE LAST DAY OR TWO FINALLY
PROGRESSES EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE
LAST COUPLE OF HOURS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE BROAD CIRCULATION OF THE TROUGH COINCIDENT
WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAX...BUT EXPECT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/STORMS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT
BEFORE FINALLY FADING OUT AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. HAVE MAINTAINED MOSTLY 50 TO 80 POPS THROUGH MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY. A HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS PARTICULARLY CLOSER TO THE
TROUGH AXIS WHERE CELL MOTION IS QUITE SLOW...HOWEVER THIS THREAT
WILL BE ISOLATED AND NO WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED. LIKEWISE
DIURNAL HEATING IN THE SUNNIER AREAS ACROSS OUR EASTERN SECTIONS
THIS AFTERNOON HAS ALLOWED FOR IMPRESSIVE DESTABILIZATION AND THERE
IS SOME POTENTIAL HERE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS...BUT AGAIN NO
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

LONG AWAITED SHORT BREAK FROM THUNDERSTORMS TO ARRIVE EARLY
SATURDAY...AS THIS WEEKS PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL WAVE FINALLY MOVES
OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAK WAVE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM MAY BRING SOME
RESIDUAL CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS TOMORROW...BUT OVERALL A NICE
CHANGE FROM THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS EVERYDAY. A SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS WILL ARRIVE AS WELL WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...THOUGH HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOT CHANGE ALL THAT MUCH. A WEAK
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

AS THE RIDGE RECEDES TO THE EAST...STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL
DEVELOP BOTH AT THE SFC AND ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A RATHER STRONG
H500 SHORT WAVE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.  AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...
DEW POINTS WILL QUICKLY RETURN TO THE 70S WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S TO NEAR 90 ACROSS THE SOUTH. WITH THE QUICK WARM UP...
INSTABILITY...PRECIPITABLE WATER...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL AGAIN
RISE TO LEVELS OF CONCERN...WITH SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL INCREASING
ACROSS THE WEST ALONG THE BOUNDARY FROM THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL IOWA IN THE EVENING. THOUGH WIND FIELDS
ALOFT ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT...THERE HAS BEEN A CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR
40 TO 50KT WINDS THROUGH THE COLUMN BY LATE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
EVENING. PWATS ARE EXPECTED TO ONCE AGAIN POOL ALONG THE BOUNDARY
AND INCREASE TO 1.75 TO 2.0 INCHES BY LATE DAY AND EVENING. WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS AGAIN ARE MAXIMIZED TO NEARLY 13KFT BY LATE AFTERNOON
WEST AND CENTRAL. CURRENT BUFR SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION FOR 21Z
SUNDAY SHOW A DRY LAYER THROUGH THE LOWER TO MID LEVELS WITH SOME
VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT...THOUGH GENERALLY UNIDIRECTIONAL. LOOKING
AT THE GFS 12Z MODEL DATA...0-3KM BULK SHEAR VECTORS BECOME MORE
PERPENDICULAR TO THE EXPECTED LINE OF STORM DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY
EVENING...SUGGESTING THAT BOWING LINEAR SEGMENTS AND A FASTER
MOVING LINE OF STORMS WITH A GREATER POTENTIAL OF WIND DAMAGE MAY
DEVELOP AFTER SOME INITIAL SUPERCELLS AND ANY LINEAR SEGMENTS
MERGE. CURRENTLY THE AREA IS OUTLOOKED FOR A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER. THERE WILL BE A GOOD CHANCE EARLY IN THE EVENT OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OF 1 TO +2 INCHES NEARER THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY
IN THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST...AND EVEN WITH THE POTENTIAL OF FASTER
MOVING STORMS IN THE MID TO LATE EVENING...RAINFALL RATES AND
AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE ON THE MODERATE TO PERHAPS HEAVY SIDE DUE TO
THE PERSISTENCE OF ELEVATED WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AND HIGH PWATS. ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL AGAIN PUSH STREAMS AND RIVERS UP AND
PERHAPS CAUSE SOME URBAN STREET OR FIELD FLOODING...BUT THE 36
HOUR BREAK FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WILL HELP
MITIGATE THE SITUATION.

BEYOND SUNDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SLIGHTLY LESS CERTAINTY
REGARDING NEXT WEEKS PATTERN...BUT TWO THEMES ARE BEGINNING TO
EMERGE.  FIRST...BOTH THE GFS/EURO SUGGEST AN ADDITIONAL FAST MOVING
WAVE WITH SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION THE MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY...PRIOR TO THE SOUTHEAST US H500 RIDGE BUILDING BACK WEST
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. AS THE
WESTERLIES RETREAT FARTHER NORTH...H500 HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO
BUILD FROM AROUND 580DM MONDAY TO NEARLY 592DM BY 00Z FRIDAY. TEMPS
WILL WARM THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH A GENERAL SHIFT OF THE HEAVIER
RAIN THREAT TO NORTHERN IOWA AND STATES NORTH. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR...AND HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE WARMING TEMPS THAN LACK OF
THUNDERSTORMS...SO DO EXPECT TO SEE TEMPERATURES PUSHING TOWARD 90
DEGREES OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WILL CONTINUE IN THE UPPER 70S
TO 80S FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO
60S.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 711 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

ALL ELEMENTS WILL BE A CONCERN THROUGH SAT MORNING AS UPPER LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SCATTERED CONVECTION PASSES THROUGH IA. CONDITIONS
ARE QUITE VARIABLE ACROSS THE STATE AT 00Z RANGING FROM IFR TO
VFR. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN DETAILS IS LOW...GENERALLY KEPT
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING FOLLOWED BY VCSH
WORDING INTO EARLY SAT MORNING AS PRECIP SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING. SURFACE FLOW WILL BE WEAK TOWARD DAYBREAK WITH
SURFACE REFLECTION OF SYSTEM COINCIDENT WITH PLENTY OF LINGERING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SO LOWERED CIGS/VSBYS BEFORE TYPICAL DIURNAL
REBOUND INTO VFR CONDITIONS LATER SAT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

SIMILAR CONCERNS AS PAST FEW DAYS. MOST OF THE REGION CONTINUES
NEARLY SATURATED...WITH SOME LOCATIONS NOT HAVING MUCH ROOM FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL BEFORE RUNOFF MAY BECOME A PROBLEM. SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES OF OUR FORECAST AREA COULD TAKE A BIT MORE...FORTUNATELY
THE CURRENT STORMS ARE WORKING NORTH ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LATER THIS EVENING COULD LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED
PROBLEMS OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WITH FIELD PONDING/MINOR FLOODING
IN RURAL AND URBAN AREAS THE MAIN CONCERNS. WILL BE MONITORING FOR
ANY MORE ORGANIZED THREAT THIS EVENING. BY SUNDAY EVENING...MORE
WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL EXPECTED. WITH NEARLY 36 HOURS OF
QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 12Z SAT THROUGH ABOUT 00Z SUNDAY...
SOILS SHOULD BETTER BE ABLE TO HANDLE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING CONTINUES NOW NEAR DSM AND POTENTIALLY SOME
ADDITIONAL RIVERS/STREAMS RISING TO OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE FS OVER THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL
HYDROLOGY...REV





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