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000
FXUS63 KDMX 301747
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1247 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA IS PRODUCING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES PER REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY. THESE CLOUDS/SPRINKLES WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLE WORDING TO HANDLE THE PRECIP BUT MOST WILL
NOT EVEN REACH THE GROUND. LATE IN THE DAY A SURGE OF WIND AND
COOLER AIR WILL ENTER IOWA FROM THE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE FOLLOWING
COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE INCLUDED THE WIND SURGE IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TODAY BUT MOST OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FLOW IN
AFTER 00Z AND HAVE LEFT THEM TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW WINDOWS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER NEEDING
ATTENTION. CURRENT SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHT MAINLY ELEVATED PRECIP TO
IA/MN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF IA BY 00Z WITH ATTENTION TURNING
UPSTREAM. MANITOBA SHORT WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE/LIFT COUPLET WHOSE
SWRN FRINGE WILL JUST BRUSH IA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BEHIND
THE INITIAL WAVE HOWEVER AND THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS DURING
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES WHICH WILL NOT BE IN THE
FORECAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE MS VALLEY BY
06Z WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL INDUCE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL
MIXING WITH NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS POSSIBLY SEEING GUSTS TO 30KTS
PER 500M WINDS. A 30 DEGREE DROP FROM THU MAXES TO FRI MORNING
MINS ARE EXPECTED WITH FRI HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
40F.

PATTERN AMPLIFICATION AND HIGH PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIVE SURFACE
HIGH REFLECTION INTO IA BY FRI NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ONLY INCREASING CIRRUS KEEPING MINS OUT OF THE
TEENS. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP SAT AND PERSIST
INTO SUN BUT WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE INTO NEXT
WEEK...BUT ADEQUATE FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
PHASING WITH MAIN FORCING WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING NW OF IA.
HOWEVER PERSISTENT SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH PERIODS OF LIFT...AND
EVENTUAL H85/H7 WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE PRECIP SO
HAVE LOW END POPS STARTING SUN NIGHT AND PEAKING MON AND MON
NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE A LOW QPF EVENT WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS INTO MO AND IL...ONLY JUST BRUSHING FAR SERN SECTIONS IF GFS
COMES TO FRUITION.

ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BEHIND THE
TROUGH PASSAGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK...GFS MORE AMPLIFIED AND ECMWF MORE ZONAL...BUT NEITHER
SUGGESTS POPS ARE WARRANTED KEEPING MUCH OF TUE AND WED DRY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WINDS FOLLOWING FRONT. CURRENT SYNOPTIC
FEATURES INCLUDE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF MN THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AND BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHEAST BY 22Z AND END BY 02Z WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 02Z NORTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 16 TO 22KTS WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 35KTS. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE EAST AT
KMCW...KALO...AND KOTM. STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOP IN WITH COLD AIR
POOL AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL AID IN PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
OVERNIGHT. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 301747
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1247 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA IS PRODUCING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES PER REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY. THESE CLOUDS/SPRINKLES WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLE WORDING TO HANDLE THE PRECIP BUT MOST WILL
NOT EVEN REACH THE GROUND. LATE IN THE DAY A SURGE OF WIND AND
COOLER AIR WILL ENTER IOWA FROM THE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE FOLLOWING
COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE INCLUDED THE WIND SURGE IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TODAY BUT MOST OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FLOW IN
AFTER 00Z AND HAVE LEFT THEM TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW WINDOWS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER NEEDING
ATTENTION. CURRENT SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHT MAINLY ELEVATED PRECIP TO
IA/MN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF IA BY 00Z WITH ATTENTION TURNING
UPSTREAM. MANITOBA SHORT WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE/LIFT COUPLET WHOSE
SWRN FRINGE WILL JUST BRUSH IA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BEHIND
THE INITIAL WAVE HOWEVER AND THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS DURING
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES WHICH WILL NOT BE IN THE
FORECAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE MS VALLEY BY
06Z WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL INDUCE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL
MIXING WITH NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS POSSIBLY SEEING GUSTS TO 30KTS
PER 500M WINDS. A 30 DEGREE DROP FROM THU MAXES TO FRI MORNING
MINS ARE EXPECTED WITH FRI HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
40F.

PATTERN AMPLIFICATION AND HIGH PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIVE SURFACE
HIGH REFLECTION INTO IA BY FRI NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ONLY INCREASING CIRRUS KEEPING MINS OUT OF THE
TEENS. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP SAT AND PERSIST
INTO SUN BUT WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE INTO NEXT
WEEK...BUT ADEQUATE FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
PHASING WITH MAIN FORCING WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING NW OF IA.
HOWEVER PERSISTENT SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH PERIODS OF LIFT...AND
EVENTUAL H85/H7 WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE PRECIP SO
HAVE LOW END POPS STARTING SUN NIGHT AND PEAKING MON AND MON
NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE A LOW QPF EVENT WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS INTO MO AND IL...ONLY JUST BRUSHING FAR SERN SECTIONS IF GFS
COMES TO FRUITION.

ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BEHIND THE
TROUGH PASSAGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK...GFS MORE AMPLIFIED AND ECMWF MORE ZONAL...BUT NEITHER
SUGGESTS POPS ARE WARRANTED KEEPING MUCH OF TUE AND WED DRY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE A BAND OF MVFR CIGS WITH
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND WINDS FOLLOWING FRONT. CURRENT SYNOPTIC
FEATURES INCLUDE SYSTEM DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF MN THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL BRING A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AND BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS TO THE NORTHEAST BY 22Z AND END BY 02Z WITH
STRONG NORTH WINDS INCREASING AFT 02Z NORTH THROUGH THE ENTIRE
AREA THROUGH 12Z. SUSTAINED WINDS INCREASING TO 16 TO 22KTS WITH
GUSTS 20 TO 35KTS. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL BE OVER THE EAST AT
KMCW...KALO...AND KOTM. STEEP LAPSE RATES DEVELOP IN WITH COLD AIR
POOL AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL AID IN PERIOD OF STRONGER WINDS
OVERNIGHT. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 301126
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
626 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA IS PRODUCING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES PER REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY. THESE CLOUDS/SPRINKLES WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLE WORDING TO HANDLE THE PRECIP BUT MOST WILL
NOT EVEN REACH THE GROUND. LATE IN THE DAY A SURGE OF WIND AND
COOLER AIR WILL ENTER IOWA FROM THE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE FOLLOWING
COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE INCLUDED THE WIND SURGE IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TODAY BUT MOST OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FLOW IN
AFTER 00Z AND HAVE LEFT THEM TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW WINDOWS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER NEEDING
ATTENTION. CURRENT SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHT MAINLY ELEVATED PRECIP TO
IA/MN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF IA BY 00Z WITH ATTENTION TURNING
UPSTREAM. MANITOBA SHORT WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE/LIFT COUPLET WHOSE
SWRN FRINGE WILL JUST BRUSH IA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BEHIND
THE INITIAL WAVE HOWEVER AND THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS DURING
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES WHICH WILL NOT BE IN THE
FORECAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE MS VALLEY BY
06Z WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL INDUCE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL
MIXING WITH NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS POSSIBLY SEEING GUSTS TO 30KTS
PER 500M WINDS. A 30 DEGREE DROP FROM THU MAXES TO FRI MORNING
MINS ARE EXPECTED WITH FRI HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
40F.

PATTERN AMPLIFICATION AND HIGH PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIVE SURFACE
HIGH REFLECTION INTO IA BY FRI NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ONLY INCREASING CIRRUS KEEPING MINS OUT OF THE
TEENS. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP SAT AND PERSIST
INTO SUN BUT WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE INTO NEXT
WEEK...BUT ADEQUATE FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
PHASING WITH MAIN FORCING WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING NW OF IA.
HOWEVER PERSISTENT SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH PERIODS OF LIFT...AND
EVENTUAL H85/H7 WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE PRECIP SO
HAVE LOW END POPS STARTING SUN NIGHT AND PEAKING MON AND MON
NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE A LOW QPF EVENT WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS INTO MO AND IL...ONLY JUST BRUSHING FAR SERN SECTIONS IF GFS
COMES TO FRUITION.

ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BEHIND THE
TROUGH PASSAGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK...GFS MORE AMPLIFIED AND ECMWF MORE ZONAL...BUT NEITHER
SUGGESTS POPS ARE WARRANTED KEEPING MUCH OF TUE AND WED DRY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A MOSTLY QUIET AVIATION FORECAST IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS IOWA
LATER TODAY...BRINGING BRISK AND GUSTY NORTH BREEZES ALONG WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY MVFR CIGS MAINLY AFTER DARK.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 300848
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
348 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE AREA IS PRODUCING MID
LEVEL CLOUDS AND A FEW SPRINKLES PER REGIONAL SATELLITE AND RADAR
IMAGERY. THESE CLOUDS/SPRINKLES WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD THROUGH THE
MORNING...CLEARING THE FORECAST AREA BY THE AFTERNOON. HAVE GONE
WITH ISOLATED SPRINKLE WORDING TO HANDLE THE PRECIP BUT MOST WILL
NOT EVEN REACH THE GROUND. LATE IN THE DAY A SURGE OF WIND AND
COOLER AIR WILL ENTER IOWA FROM THE NORTH IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE COLD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SET TO AFFECT THE REGION OVER THE FOLLOWING
COUPLE OF DAYS. HAVE INCLUDED THE WIND SURGE IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TODAY BUT MOST OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL FLOW IN
AFTER 00Z AND HAVE LEFT THEM TO THE TONIGHT FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

ALTHOUGH THE PATTERN WILL BE SOMEWHAT ACTIVE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THERE ARE ONLY A FEW WINDOWS OF SENSIBLE WEATHER NEEDING
ATTENTION. CURRENT SYSTEM BRINGING LIGHT MAINLY ELEVATED PRECIP TO
IA/MN SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF IA BY 00Z WITH ATTENTION TURNING
UPSTREAM. MANITOBA SHORT WAVE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT REACHES THE
GREAT LAKES TONIGHT WITH IMPRESSIVE SUBSIDENCE/LIFT COUPLET WHOSE
SWRN FRINGE WILL JUST BRUSH IA. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED BEHIND
THE INITIAL WAVE HOWEVER AND THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDINESS DURING
THE EVENING AND POSSIBLY A FEW SPRINKLES WHICH WILL NOT BE IN THE
FORECAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WILL THEN DROP DOWN THE MS VALLEY BY
06Z WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION. THIS WILL INDUCE SHALLOW NOCTURNAL
MIXING WITH NORTH AND EAST SECTIONS POSSIBLY SEEING GUSTS TO 30KTS
PER 500M WINDS. A 30 DEGREE DROP FROM THU MAXES TO FRI MORNING
MINS ARE EXPECTED WITH FRI HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF
40F.

PATTERN AMPLIFICATION AND HIGH PLAINS UPPER RIDGE WILL DRIVE SURFACE
HIGH REFLECTION INTO IA BY FRI NIGHT.  WIDESPREAD LOWS IN THE 20S
ARE ANTICIPATED WITH ONLY INCREASING CIRRUS KEEPING MINS OUT OF THE
TEENS. RETURN FLOW/WARM ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP SAT AND PERSIST
INTO SUN BUT WITH INSUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF
PRECIPITATION. CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS...BUT WILL
KEEP FORECAST DRY. PRECIP CHANCES WILL THEN INCREASE INTO NEXT
WEEK...BUT ADEQUATE FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY
PHASING WITH MAIN FORCING WITH UPPER LOW REMAINING NW OF IA.
HOWEVER PERSISTENT SW UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH PERIODS OF LIFT...AND
EVENTUAL H85/H7 WAVE PASSAGE SHOULD EVENTUALLY PRODUCE PRECIP SO
HAVE LOW END POPS STARTING SUN NIGHT AND PEAKING MON AND MON
NIGHT. THIS WOULD MAINLY BE A LOW QPF EVENT WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL
RAINS INTO MO AND IL...ONLY JUST BRUSHING FAR SERN SECTIONS IF GFS
COMES TO FRUITION.

ECMWF AND GFS DIFFER ON HOW PATTERN WILL EVOLVE BEHIND THE
TROUGH PASSAGE FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF NEXT
WEEK...GFS MORE AMPLIFIED AND ECMWF MORE ZONAL...BUT NEITHER
SUGGESTS POPS ARE WARRANTED KEEPING MUCH OF TUE AND WED DRY WITH
SEASONAL TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS IOWA FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THROUGH 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. VCSH CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AT BEST...SO KEPT THEM OUT OF
PACKAGE. CLOUDS WILL EXIT IOWA LATE THURSDAY EVENING WITH SKC
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG NW WINDS IN THE
12KT TO 18KT RANGE EXPECTED NEAR 00Z FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLEARING LINE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 300452
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1152 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE FORECAST IS GOING AS EXPECTED.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AXIS OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BISECTING THE STATE IN HALF.  THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST.

A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ENTER NW IA LATER TONIGHT...AROUND 09Z
AND PROGRESS ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE BY 12Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WOEFULLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THERE
IS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING.  THE BULK OF THE
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS SW IA INTO MISSOURI VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE I HAVE
REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.  THE ONLY EFFECT THE
APPROACHING WAVE WILL HAVE ON THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
TO SWITCH THE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SKY
CONDITIONS BY 09Z SHOULD BE OVERCAST IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLY THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER TROF AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM
BUT SOME SATURATION WILL OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH PERSISTENT
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT DURING
THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I35 CORRIDOR. SYSTEM WILL DEPART
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE STATE FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE STATE.

THE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL US AHEAD OF WESTERN TROF. THIS TROF
WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEARLY PARALLEL RUNNING
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXIST FROM IOWA BACK INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH OF THE STATE. SOME GENEROUS
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF IOWA
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF QPF WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS IOWA FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THROUGH 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. VCSH CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AT BEST...SO KEPT THEM OUT OF
PACKAGE. CLOUDS WILL EXIT IOWA LATE THURSDAY EVENING WITH SKC
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG NW WINDS IN THE
12KT TO 18KT RANGE EXPECTED NEAR 00Z FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLEARING LINE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 300452
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1152 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE FORECAST IS GOING AS EXPECTED.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AXIS OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BISECTING THE STATE IN HALF.  THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST.

A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ENTER NW IA LATER TONIGHT...AROUND 09Z
AND PROGRESS ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE BY 12Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WOEFULLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THERE
IS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING.  THE BULK OF THE
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS SW IA INTO MISSOURI VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE I HAVE
REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.  THE ONLY EFFECT THE
APPROACHING WAVE WILL HAVE ON THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
TO SWITCH THE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SKY
CONDITIONS BY 09Z SHOULD BE OVERCAST IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLY THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER TROF AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM
BUT SOME SATURATION WILL OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH PERSISTENT
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT DURING
THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I35 CORRIDOR. SYSTEM WILL DEPART
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE STATE FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE STATE.

THE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL US AHEAD OF WESTERN TROF. THIS TROF
WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEARLY PARALLEL RUNNING
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXIST FROM IOWA BACK INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH OF THE STATE. SOME GENEROUS
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF IOWA
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF QPF WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS IOWA FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THROUGH 09Z. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE TAF
PERIOD. VCSH CHANCES LOOK MINIMAL AT BEST...SO KEPT THEM OUT OF
PACKAGE. CLOUDS WILL EXIT IOWA LATE THURSDAY EVENING WITH SKC
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. STRONG NW WINDS IN THE
12KT TO 18KT RANGE EXPECTED NEAR 00Z FRI IN ADVANCE OF THE
CLEARING LINE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 292327
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
627 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE FORECAST IS GOING AS EXPECTED.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AXIS OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BISECTING THE STATE IN HALF.  THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST.

A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ENTER NW IA LATER TONIGHT...AROUND 09Z
AND PROGRESS ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE BY 12Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WOEFULLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THERE
IS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING.  THE BULK OF THE
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS SW IA INTO MISSOURI VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE I HAVE
REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.  THE ONLY EFFECT THE
APPROACHING WAVE WILL HAVE ON THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
TO SWITCH THE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SKY
CONDITIONS BY 09Z SHOULD BE OVERCAST IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLY THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER TROF AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM
BUT SOME SATURATION WILL OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH PERSISTENT
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT DURING
THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I35 CORRIDOR. SYSTEM WILL DEPART
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE STATE FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE STATE.

THE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL US AHEAD OF WESTERN TROF. THIS TROF
WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEARLY PARALLEL RUNNING
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXIST FROM IOWA BACK INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH OF THE STATE. SOME GENEROUS
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF IOWA
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF QPF WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO ENTER IOWA FROM WEST TO EAST NOW THROUGH 09Z
THU. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. VCSH CHANCES
LOOK MINIMAL AT BEST...SO REMOVED THEM FROM PACKAGE. CLOUDS WILL
EXIT IOWA LATE THURSDAY EVENING WITH SKC EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. WILL ADDRESS TIMING OF CLOUD DEPARTURE IN NEXT
UPDATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 292033
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE FORECAST IS GOING AS EXPECTED.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AXIS OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BISECTING THE STATE IN HALF.  THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST.

A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ENTER NW IA LATER TONIGHT...AROUND 09Z
AND PROGRESS ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE BY 12Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WOEFULLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THERE
IS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING.  THE BULK OF THE
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS SW IA INTO MISSOURI VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE I HAVE
REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.  THE ONLY EFFECT THE
APPROACHING WAVE WILL HAVE ON THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
TO SWITCH THE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SKY
CONDITIONS BY 09Z SHOULD BE OVERCAST IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLY THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER TROF AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM
BUT SOME SATURATION WILL OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH PERSISTENT
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT DURING
THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I35 CORRIDOR. SYSTEM WILL DEPART
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE STATE FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE STATE.

THE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL US AHEAD OF WESTERN TROF. THIS TROF
WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEARLY PARALLEL RUNNING
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXIST FROM IOWA BACK INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH OF THE STATE. SOME GENEROUS
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF IOWA
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF QPF WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SO I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES W TO E THROUGH 00-
03Z. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER NW IA BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND CIGS SHOULD GO BKN
MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL AFT 12-14Z.  LOCAL
MVFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP.  FORCING WITH THIS WAVE IS DECENT BUT
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
MINIMAL AND MAINLY ALONG AND E OF A KMCW TO KOTM LINE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 292033
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE FORECAST IS GOING AS EXPECTED.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS
SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE AND THE AXIS OF WHICH IS CURRENTLY ALONG
THE I-35 CORRIDOR BISECTING THE STATE IN HALF.  THE HIGH WILL
CONTINUE TO TREK TO THE EAST DURING THE EVENING HOURS CLEARING SKIES
AND DIMINISHING WINDS AS IT MOVES EAST.

A SHORT WAVE IS PROGGED TO ENTER NW IA LATER TONIGHT...AROUND 09Z
AND PROGRESS ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE BY 12Z.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WOEFULLY LACKING WITH THIS SYSTEM THOUGH THERE
IS SOME DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING.  THE BULK OF THE
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS SW IA INTO MISSOURI VERY LATE
TONIGHT.  HOWEVER GIVEN THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE I HAVE
REMOVED POPS FROM THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.  THE ONLY EFFECT THE
APPROACHING WAVE WILL HAVE ON THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT WILL BE
TO SWITCH THE WINDS BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTHEAST...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WEST...AND AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SKY
CONDITIONS BY 09Z SHOULD BE OVERCAST IN MOST LOCATIONS...EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLY THE FAR EAST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 333 PM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

UPPER TROF AND SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PASS THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY MORNING. MOISTURE REMAINS LIMITED WITH THE SYSTEM
BUT SOME SATURATION WILL OCCUR IN THE MID LEVELS WITH PERSISTENT
WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING. THIS WILL PRODUCE A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE EAST AND HAVE INCLUDED THE THREAT DURING
THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF I35 CORRIDOR. SYSTEM WILL DEPART
WITH MUCH COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE STATE FOR FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPS INTO THE STATE.

THE TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN THE CENTRAL US AHEAD OF WESTERN TROF. THIS TROF
WILL PROGRESS EAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH BROAD SOUTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPING INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. NEARLY PARALLEL RUNNING
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL EXIST FROM IOWA BACK INTO NORTHERN TEXAS AND
WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS BY MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY BEFORE
THE FRONT GRADUALLY SINKS SOUTH OF THE STATE. SOME GENEROUS
RAINFALL IS EXPECTED PRIMARILY ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF IOWA
WHERE UP TO AN INCH OF QPF WILL BE POSSIBLE. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1248 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN SO I EXPECT CLEARING SKIES W TO E THROUGH 00-
03Z. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER NW IA BETWEEN 09Z-12Z.
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND CIGS SHOULD GO BKN
MOST LOCATIONS BY 06Z BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR UNTIL AFT 12-14Z.  LOCAL
MVFR CIGS WILL THEN DEVELOP.  FORCING WITH THIS WAVE IS DECENT BUT
THE LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP LIGHT PRECIP CHANCES
MINIMAL AND MAINLY ALONG AND E OF A KMCW TO KOTM LINE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 291126
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
626 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT INITIALLY TODAY...AND AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC ALOFT BY LATE TODAY EXPECT THE LOW
STRATUS DECK IN PLACE TO START ERODING/SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST.
LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST/SOUTH
BY LATE TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AS WELL. WEAK WAA
ALOFT...BUT COOL START AND SOME CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD LIMIT
WARMING SO EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT SIMILAR TO READINGS FROM TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
ELEMENTS NEEDING ATTENTION...BUT NOTHING OVERLY SIGNIFICANT.
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN MO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO THU...WHICH ONE COULD ARGUE IS A DISTANT REMNANT OF PACIFIC
HURRICANE ANA.  FAIRLY DEEP WEAK TO MODERATE KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING PASSES THROUGH IA LATE TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 2KM AND OVERALL LACK OF
SATURATION OF ANY APPRECIABLE DEPTH SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.  STATIC STABILITY LOWERS SOMEWHAT SO
EXPECT WHATEVER PRECIP THERE IS TO BE SHOWERY IN NATURE...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY HI RES MODEL OUTPUT...BUT OVERALL SCENARIO SUGGESTS
NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH AND EAST DURING THIS
WINDOW. A SEPARATE DEEPENING SHORT WAVE WILL FOLLOW CLOSE BEHIND
FROM FAR WRN ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER
EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

PASSAGE OF SECOND WAVE WILL RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE
RESPONSE WITH COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS THU NIGHT.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING WILL NOT BE DEEP...1KM OR
LESS...BUT EVEN SO WITH 500M WINDS TO AROUND 30KTS HAVE BOOSTED
GUSTS BRIEFLY TO THAT LEVEL /35MPH/ 03Z-09Z. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
BRISK AND COLD WITH HIGHS JUST REACHING 40F IN MANY AREAS...AND
POSSIBLY NOT EVEN THAT IN SPOTS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN PASS
THROUGH IA FRI NIGHT. IT WILL EXIT SOON ENOUGH FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING NOT TO BE IDEAL ON A LARGE SCALE BUT SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR BIG DROPS EAST WHERE MINS IN THE LOWER 20S ARE LIKELY...THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON.

THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME REBOUND IN THE
RETURN FLOW TO END THE WEEKEND BUT WITH SURFACE WIND DIRECTION
LIKELY REMAINING AT OR JUST SHY OF 180 DEGREES MIXING WILL NOT BE
TOO DEEP AND KEEP HIGHS SEASONALLY IN THE 50S.  APPROACH OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF VARIED FORCING IN MAGNITUDE AND
DEPTH...STARTING WITH DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION SAT NIGHT.  PHASING
OF LIFT AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE NEVER REALLY COMES TOGETHER HOWEVER SO
PRECIP POTENTIAL SEEMS SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH NOW ONLY LOW END CHANCE POPS CENTERED AROUND MONDAY.
PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TUE WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS STILL NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z
ISSUED AT 626 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH SOME LOW STRATUS IN PLACE
ACROSS THE CWA THIS MORNING. CLOUD DECK BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND
IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY LINGERING THE LONGEST
ACROSS THE EASTERN TAF SITES. A FEW ISOLATED SPOTS REPORTING HIGH
MVFR CIGS...BUT FOR THE MOST PART SHOULD SEE LOW VFR CIGS.
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SOME HIGH CLOUDS TO INCREASE AND SPREAD ACROSS
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 290852
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

CYCLONIC FLOW IN PLACE ALOFT INITIALLY TODAY...AND AS THE FLOW
BECOMES MORE ANTI-CYCLONIC ALOFT BY LATE TODAY EXPECT THE LOW
STRATUS DECK IN PLACE TO START ERODING/SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST.
LARGE AREA OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE STATE THROUGH THE
DAY...AND EXPECT WINDS TO GRADUALLY SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST/SOUTH
BY LATE TODAY WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT AS WELL. WEAK WAA
ALOFT...BUT COOL START AND SOME CLOUD COVER TODAY SHOULD LIMIT
WARMING SO EXPECT HIGHS TO TOP OUT SIMILAR TO READINGS FROM TUESDAY
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

THE WEATHER WILL BE FAIRLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SEVERAL
ELEMENTS NEEDING ATTENTION...BUT NOTHING OVERLY SIGNIFICANT.
INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE SHORT WAVE DROPPING DOWN MO VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO THU...WHICH ONE COULD ARGUE IS A DISTANT REMNANT OF PACIFIC
HURRICANE ANA.  FAIRLY DEEP WEAK TO MODERATE KINEMATIC AND
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING PASSES THROUGH IA LATE TONIGHT INTO THU
MORNING...BUT LIMITED MOISTURE BELOW 2KM AND OVERALL LACK OF
SATURATION OF ANY APPRECIABLE DEPTH SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY
OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.  STATIC STABILITY LOWERS SOMEWHAT SO
EXPECT WHATEVER PRECIP THERE IS TO BE SHOWERY IN NATURE...WHICH IS
SUPPORTED BY HI RES MODEL OUTPUT...BUT OVERALL SCENARIO SUGGESTS
NOTHING MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH AND EAST DURING THIS
WINDOW. A SEPARATE DEEPENING SHORT WAVE WILL FOLLOW CLOSE BEHIND
FROM FAR WRN ONTARIO INTO THE GREAT LAKES BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER
EFFECTS SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.

PASSAGE OF SECOND WAVE WILL RESULT IN MORE ORGANIZED SURFACE
RESPONSE WITH COLD ADVECTION AND INCREASING WINDS THU NIGHT.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MIXING WILL NOT BE DEEP...1KM OR
LESS...BUT EVEN SO WITH 500M WINDS TO AROUND 30KTS HAVE BOOSTED
GUSTS BRIEFLY TO THAT LEVEL /35MPH/ 03Z-09Z. FRIDAY WILL STILL BE
BRISK AND COLD WITH HIGHS JUST REACHING 40F IN MANY AREAS...AND
POSSIBLY NOT EVEN THAT IN SPOTS. SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN PASS
THROUGH IA FRI NIGHT. IT WILL EXIT SOON ENOUGH FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING NOT TO BE IDEAL ON A LARGE SCALE BUT SHOULD STILL ALLOW
FOR BIG DROPS EAST WHERE MINS IN THE LOWER 20S ARE LIKELY...THE
COLDEST OF THE SEASON.

THE ADVANCING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL ALLOW FOR SOME REBOUND IN THE
RETURN FLOW TO END THE WEEKEND BUT WITH SURFACE WIND DIRECTION
LIKELY REMAINING AT OR JUST SHY OF 180 DEGREES MIXING WILL NOT BE
TOO DEEP AND KEEP HIGHS SEASONALLY IN THE 50S.  APPROACH OF LONG
WAVE TROUGH WILL BRING A PERIOD OF VARIED FORCING IN MAGNITUDE AND
DEPTH...STARTING WITH DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION SAT NIGHT.  PHASING
OF LIFT AND ADEQUATE MOISTURE NEVER REALLY COMES TOGETHER HOWEVER SO
PRECIP POTENTIAL SEEMS SOMEWHAT LESS FAVORABLE THAN THIS TIME
YESTERDAY WITH NOW ONLY LOW END CHANCE POPS CENTERED AROUND MONDAY.
PACIFIC ORIGIN HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW TUE WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER
AND TEMPS STILL NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGED SINCE LAST TAF PACKAGE. ST DECK/SC FIELD ASSOC
WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST SO
WILL LIKELY BE BKN TO OVC FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. KMCW MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS A TIME OR
TWO TONIGHT...BUT VFR EXPECTED TO BE MOST PREVALENT. EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME SKC TO SCT AT AROUND THE 20Z TO 22Z WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 290448
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1148 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS. BKN CONDITIONS HAVE
MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-80/US 30 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE STRATOCU
TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST. TIMING IS THE QUESTION. EXPECT
NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 00Z ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF US 20...HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO GO FROM THE US 20 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
ESPECIALLY EAST OF US 169. MODELS KEEP ELEVATED RH AROUND FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...WITH MOST OF THE STRATOCU
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z WED.

LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WILL ALSO DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER. IF CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPS THERE
MAY BE LOWER THEN INDICATED IN THE FCST. WINDS WILL NOT FULLY
DECOUPLE THERE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...SO IF THE CLOUD COVER DOES
DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN FCST THE TEMPERATURE DROPS WOULD BE
RELATIVELY MINOR.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A
COLD SNAP FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
YET THIS SEASON TO CENTRAL IOWA.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
BRINGING A DRY PERIOD WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE DROPPING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS IOWA AND MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGH  AND THURSDAY.  ALL THE MODELS ARE EVEN A TOUCH SLOWER WITH
THIS FEATURE BRINING IT INTO NW IA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z THEN DROPPING
IT THROUGH IOWA BY 21Z THURSDAY.  THE MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE
EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES HOWEVER.  THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A
DOUBLE BARRELED LOW WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW BECOMING THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT DRIFTS SE ACROSS IA/MO.  OTHER MODELS EITHER
DON`T HAVE MUCH OF A SURFACE REFLECTION OR THEY DEVELOP A SURFACE
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE SHORT WAVE.  IN ANY EVENT THE
FORCING...SUCH THAT IT IS...GETS SPLIT BETWEEN SOUTHERN MN/NE IA AND
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPARSE TO NON-
EXISTENT WITH THIS WAVE BUT THERE IS DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO
THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WILL THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE  AND HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL WE GET FROM THIS.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS NORTHERN/NE
IA WILL NOT SEE MUCH...SPRINKLES TO A HUNDRETH OR TWO.  SOUTHERN/SE
IOWA MAY SEE A BIT MORE BUT STILL ON THE ORDER OF HUNDREDTHS.  THE
BETTER FORCING AND HENCE THE BETTER QPF CHANCES REMAIN IN NORTHERN
MO AND MAY EXTEND INTO FAR SE IA.  I DON`T HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCES GOING ACROSS IA FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.  THE SURFACE HIGH IS ANCHORED RIGHT OVER IOWA FRIDAY
NIGHT.  WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TEMPS SHOULD REALLY TUMBLE.
THE ONLY SAVING GRACE WOULD BE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT OVER THE FAR EAST CWA OR EASTERN IA SO SURFACE
WINDS...ALBEIT LIGHT...WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST.  THE MODELS
DID PICK UP ON THIS AND DID LOWER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.  I HAVE
DROPPED THEM A DEGREE OR TWO MORE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS LIKE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THE NISH VALLEY.  SATURDAY WILL
START OUT VERY COLD AND RECOVERY IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE DESPITE
THE STRONG RETURN FLOW IN THE LOWEST LAYERS.  FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT
THE HIGHS IN THE 40S BUT THIS MAY BE TOO COOL.  THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS IOWA SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH
INFLUENCE THAT WILL HAVE ON ALLOWING THINGS TO WARM UP.

BY LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT  THE UPPER RIDGE IS EAST OF IA SO WE ARE
IN A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS SHOULD DEFINITELY
RESPOND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.  HIGHS MAY STILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S OR SO NORTHEAST BUT WE MAY TOUCH 60 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND HIGH PLAINS.  A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE SOME ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.  MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SUNDAY EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIP DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY.  THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE THOUGH AND PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY
EVENING.  THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT
MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVERNIGHT.  THERE ISN`T ANY COLD
AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S FOR TUESDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

NOT MUCH CHANGED SINCE LAST TAF PACKAGE. ST DECK/SC FIELD ASSOC
WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE STILL MOVING VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST SO
WILL LIKELY BE BKN TO OVC FOR NORTHERN TAF SITES THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. KMCW MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS A TIME OR
TWO TONIGHT...BUT VFR EXPECTED TO BE MOST PREVALENT. EXPECT SKIES
TO BECOME SKC TO SCT AT AROUND THE 20Z TO 22Z WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...KOTENBERG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 282326
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
626 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS. BKN CONDITIONS HAVE
MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-80/US 30 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE STRATOCU
TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST. TIMING IS THE QUESTION. EXPECT
NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 00Z ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF US 20...HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO GO FROM THE US 20 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
ESPECIALLY EAST OF US 169. MODELS KEEP ELEVATED RH AROUND FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...WITH MOST OF THE STRATOCU
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z WED.

LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WILL ALSO DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER. IF CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPS THERE
MAY BE LOWER THEN INDICATED IN THE FCST. WINDS WILL NOT FULLY
DECOUPLE THERE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...SO IF THE CLOUD COVER DOES
DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN FCST THE TEMPERATURE DROPS WOULD BE
RELATIVELY MINOR.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A
COLD SNAP FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
YET THIS SEASON TO CENTRAL IOWA.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
BRINGING A DRY PERIOD WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE DROPPING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS IOWA AND MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGH  AND THURSDAY.  ALL THE MODELS ARE EVEN A TOUCH SLOWER WITH
THIS FEATURE BRINING IT INTO NW IA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z THEN DROPPING
IT THROUGH IOWA BY 21Z THURSDAY.  THE MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE
EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES HOWEVER.  THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A
DOUBLE BARRELED LOW WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW BECOMING THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT DRIFTS SE ACROSS IA/MO.  OTHER MODELS EITHER
DON`T HAVE MUCH OF A SURFACE REFLECTION OR THEY DEVELOP A SURFACE
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE SHORT WAVE.  IN ANY EVENT THE
FORCING...SUCH THAT IT IS...GETS SPLIT BETWEEN SOUTHERN MN/NE IA AND
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPARSE TO NON-
EXISTENT WITH THIS WAVE BUT THERE IS DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO
THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WILL THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE  AND HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL WE GET FROM THIS.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS NORTHERN/NE
IA WILL NOT SEE MUCH...SPRINKLES TO A HUNDRETH OR TWO.  SOUTHERN/SE
IOWA MAY SEE A BIT MORE BUT STILL ON THE ORDER OF HUNDREDTHS.  THE
BETTER FORCING AND HENCE THE BETTER QPF CHANCES REMAIN IN NORTHERN
MO AND MAY EXTEND INTO FAR SE IA.  I DON`T HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCES GOING ACROSS IA FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.  THE SURFACE HIGH IS ANCHORED RIGHT OVER IOWA FRIDAY
NIGHT.  WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TEMPS SHOULD REALLY TUMBLE.
THE ONLY SAVING GRACE WOULD BE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT OVER THE FAR EAST CWA OR EASTERN IA SO SURFACE
WINDS...ALBEIT LIGHT...WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST.  THE MODELS
DID PICK UP ON THIS AND DID LOWER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.  I HAVE
DROPPED THEM A DEGREE OR TWO MORE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS LIKE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THE NISH VALLEY.  SATURDAY WILL
START OUT VERY COLD AND RECOVERY IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE DESPITE
THE STRONG RETURN FLOW IN THE LOWEST LAYERS.  FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT
THE HIGHS IN THE 40S BUT THIS MAY BE TOO COOL.  THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS IOWA SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH
INFLUENCE THAT WILL HAVE ON ALLOWING THINGS TO WARM UP.

BY LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT  THE UPPER RIDGE IS EAST OF IA SO WE ARE
IN A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS SHOULD DEFINITELY
RESPOND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.  HIGHS MAY STILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S OR SO NORTHEAST BUT WE MAY TOUCH 60 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND HIGH PLAINS.  A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE SOME ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.  MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SUNDAY EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIP DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY.  THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE THOUGH AND PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY
EVENING.  THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT
MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVERNIGHT.  THERE ISN`T ANY COLD
AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S FOR TUESDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z
ISSUED AT 602 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN CHANGES TO TAF FCST WAS TO KEEP CLOUDS AROUND FOR LONGER WED
MORNING. ST DECK/SC FIELD ASSOC WITH AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST SO WILL LIKELY BE BKN TO OVC FOR NORTHERN
TAF SITES. KMCW MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS A TIME OR
TWO...ESPECIALLY NEAR 12Z TOMORROW...SO STUCK WITH A TWO-LINE TAF
TO HIGHLIGHT TIMING EXPECTATIONS TO LIFTING CIGS. EXPECT SKIES TO
BECOME SKC TO SCT AT AROUND THE 16Z TO 18Z WED TIME FRAME.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...KOTENBERG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 282047
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
347 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE CLOUD TRENDS. BKN CONDITIONS HAVE
MADE IT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE I-80/US 30 CORRIDOR. EXPECT THE STRATOCU
TO GRADUALLY LIFT NORTHEAST. TIMING IS THE QUESTION. EXPECT
NOTICEABLE IMPROVEMENT AFTER 00Z ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF US 20...HOWEVER
CLOUDS WILL BE SLOWER TO GO FROM THE US 20 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD
ESPECIALLY EAST OF US 169. MODELS KEEP ELEVATED RH AROUND FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA...WITH MOST OF THE STRATOCU
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CWA BY 12Z WED.

LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN CWA WILL ALSO DEPEND ON CLOUD
COVER. IF CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED THEN TEMPS THERE
MAY BE LOWER THEN INDICATED IN THE FCST. WINDS WILL NOT FULLY
DECOUPLE THERE OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER...SO IF THE CLOUD COVER DOES
DISSIPATE EARLIER THAN FCST THE TEMPERATURE DROPS WOULD BE
RELATIVELY MINOR.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED CENTER AROUND PRECIP CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK ALONG WITH A
COLD SNAP FRIDAY/SATURDAY WHICH WILL BRING SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR
YET THIS SEASON TO CENTRAL IOWA.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
BRINGING A DRY PERIOD WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS ARE VERY CONSISTENT WITH THE SHORT WAVE DROPPING OUT OF
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ACROSS IOWA AND MINNESOTA LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGH  AND THURSDAY.  ALL THE MODELS ARE EVEN A TOUCH SLOWER WITH
THIS FEATURE BRINING IT INTO NW IA BETWEEN 06Z AND 09Z THEN DROPPING
IT THROUGH IOWA BY 21Z THURSDAY.  THE MODELS DO DIFFER ON THE
EVOLUTION OF SURFACE FEATURES HOWEVER.  THE NAM AND GFS DEVELOP A
DOUBLE BARRELED LOW WITH THE SOUTHERN LOW BECOMING THE DOMINANT
SURFACE FEATURE AS IT DRIFTS SE ACROSS IA/MO.  OTHER MODELS EITHER
DON`T HAVE MUCH OF A SURFACE REFLECTION OR THEY DEVELOP A SURFACE
LOW IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OF THE SHORT WAVE.  IN ANY EVENT THE
FORCING...SUCH THAT IT IS...GETS SPLIT BETWEEN SOUTHERN MN/NE IA AND
SOUTHERN IA/NORTHERN MO.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS SPARSE TO NON-
EXISTENT WITH THIS WAVE BUT THERE IS DECENT MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  SO
THE QUESTION IS HOW MUCH WILL THE LOW LEVELS SATURATE  AND HOW MUCH
PRECIP WILL WE GET FROM THIS.  AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS NORTHERN/NE
IA WILL NOT SEE MUCH...SPRINKLES TO A HUNDRETH OR TWO.  SOUTHERN/SE
IOWA MAY SEE A BIT MORE BUT STILL ON THE ORDER OF HUNDREDTHS.  THE
BETTER FORCING AND HENCE THE BETTER QPF CHANCES REMAIN IN NORTHERN
MO AND MAY EXTEND INTO FAR SE IA.  I DON`T HAVE ANYTHING MORE THAN
SLIGHT CHANCES GOING ACROSS IA FOR THIS ENTIRE EVENT.

AFTER THIS SYSTEM PASSES HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BOTH AT THE SURFACE
AND ALOFT.  THE SURFACE HIGH IS ANCHORED RIGHT OVER IOWA FRIDAY
NIGHT.  WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TEMPS SHOULD REALLY TUMBLE.
THE ONLY SAVING GRACE WOULD BE THAT THE RIDGE AXIS DURING THE
OVERNIGHT WILL SHIFT OVER THE FAR EAST CWA OR EASTERN IA SO SURFACE
WINDS...ALBEIT LIGHT...WILL BECOME EAST TO SOUTHEAST.  THE MODELS
DID PICK UP ON THIS AND DID LOWER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY NIGHT.  I HAVE
DROPPED THEM A DEGREE OR TWO MORE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS LIKE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND THE NISH VALLEY.  SATURDAY WILL
START OUT VERY COLD AND RECOVERY IS SOMEWHAT QUESTIONABLE DESPITE
THE STRONG RETURN FLOW IN THE LOWEST LAYERS.  FOR NOW I HAVE KEPT
THE HIGHS IN THE 40S BUT THIS MAY BE TOO COOL.  THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE IS STILL IN PLACE ACROSS IOWA SO WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH
INFLUENCE THAT WILL HAVE ON ALLOWING THINGS TO WARM UP.

BY LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT  THE UPPER RIDGE IS EAST OF IA SO WE ARE
IN A DEEPER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND TEMPS SHOULD DEFINITELY
RESPOND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST.  HIGHS MAY STILL
BE IN THE UPPER 40S OR SO NORTHEAST BUT WE MAY TOUCH 60 IN THE FAR
SOUTHWEST.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SWEEP OUT OF THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND HIGH PLAINS.  A LOW WILL DEVELOP IN THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE SOME ENERGY EJECTS
OUT OF THE TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS.  MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
SUNDAY EVENING AND WE SHOULD SEE SOME PRECIP DEVELOP LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND OVERSPREAD THE CWA THROUGH MONDAY.  THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE THOUGH AND PRECIP SHOULD PUSH OFF TO THE EAST BY
EVENING.  THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL COME THROUGH OVERNIGHT
MONDAY AND WE SHOULD SEE CLEARING OVERNIGHT.  THERE ISN`T ANY COLD
AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE 50S FOR TUESDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO AFFECT KMCW...KALO AND KFOD
TERMINALS. CIGS NOT EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH AS KDSM...ONLY REACHING AS
FAR S AS BTWN THE US 20 TO US 30 CORRIDORS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARD SUNSET BUT REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
TERMINALS.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 281728
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1227 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING
ACROSS NRN MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CAA EXPECTED WITH A
TIGHTENED SFC PRES GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL...WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT MAY
HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SITES APPROACH CRITERIA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. LOW
STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SHOULD SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THEREFORE WITH THE CAA AND
CLOUD COVER...LITTLE RECOVERY IN TEMPS EXPECTED. KEPT TEMPS COOL
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH...WITH UPPER 50S SOUTH WHERE
MORE SUN IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

EFFECTS OF CURRENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF IA BY TONIGHT
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING KEEPING FAIR WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO WED NIGHT INTO THU AS
REMNANTS OF CURRENT TROUGH OFF BC COAST REACHES THE MO VALLEY BY
EARLY THU. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS MORE KINEMATIC THAN
THERMODYNAMIC BASED ON EXAMINATION OF 300-310K LAYER...BUT THE
FORCING IS FAIRLY DEEP AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH
AND EAST LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR A START. POPS
MAY NEEDED TO BE EXPANDED IN AREA AND MAGNITUDE IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE...BUT LACK OF WIDESPREAD SATURATION WILL LIMIT ANY
AMOUNTS REGARDLESS.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BUT EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AGAIN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. HIGHS FRI AND SAT WILL LIKELY ONLY MAKE
THE 40S WITH WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FRI NIGHT. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS SEEN FREEZING TEMPS ALREADY AND IT IS ALSO
BEYOND CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS SO NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED. THEY
ARE DONE FOR THE SEASON.

IA WILL GET INTO STRONG RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH SUN
WITH POPS INCREASING INTO MON AS LONG WAVE TROUGH EXITS THE ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PROGRESSION SPACIALLY AND TEMPORALLY SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
SUN INTO INTO MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

BORDERLINE MVFR CIGS EXPECTED TO AFFECT KMCW...KALO AND KFOD
TERMINALS. CIGS NOT EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH AS KDSM...ONLY REACHING AS
FAR S AS BTWN THE US 20 TO US 30 CORRIDORS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH
TOWARD SUNSET BUT REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN
TERMINALS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 281143
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING
ACROSS NRN MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CAA EXPECTED WITH A
TIGHTENED SFC PRES GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL...WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT MAY
HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SITES APPROACH CRITERIA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. LOW
STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SHOULD SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THEREFORE WITH THE CAA AND
CLOUD COVER...LITTLE RECOVERY IN TEMPS EXPECTED. KEPT TEMPS COOL
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH...WITH UPPER 50S SOUTH WHERE
MORE SUN IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

EFFECTS OF CURRENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF IA BY TONIGHT
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING KEEPING FAIR WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO WED NIGHT INTO THU AS
REMNANTS OF CURRENT TROUGH OFF BC COAST REACHES THE MO VALLEY BY
EARLY THU. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS MORE KINEMATIC THAN
THERMODYNAMIC BASED ON EXAMINATION OF 300-310K LAYER...BUT THE
FORCING IS FAIRLY DEEP AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH
AND EAST LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR A START. POPS
MAY NEEDED TO BE EXPANDED IN AREA AND MAGNITUDE IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE...BUT LACK OF WIDESPREAD SATURATION WILL LIMIT ANY
AMOUNTS REGARDLESS.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BUT EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AGAIN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. HIGHS FRI AND SAT WILL LIKELY ONLY MAKE
THE 40S WITH WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FRI NIGHT. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS SEEN FREEZING TEMPS ALREADY AND IT IS ALSO
BEYOND CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS SO NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED. THEY
ARE DONE FOR THE SEASON.

IA WILL GET INTO STRONG RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH SUN
WITH POPS INCREASING INTO MON AS LONG WAVE TROUGH EXITS THE ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PROGRESSION SPACIALLY AND TEMPORALLY SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
SUN INTO INTO MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z
ISSUED AT 643 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TO PICK UP DURING THE DAY TODAY...AND
DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET TONIGHT. SOME LOW VFR HIGHER MVFR CLOUDS TO
SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY IMPACTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN TAF
SITES. CLOUDS MAY LINGER ACROSS KMCW AND KALO INTO TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280849
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
349 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKING
ACROSS NRN MN INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. CAA EXPECTED WITH A
TIGHTENED SFC PRES GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SFC LOW MOVING
INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION AS WELL...WHICH WILL LEAD TO GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY. SHOULD STAY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT MAY
HAVE A FEW ISOLATED SITES APPROACH CRITERIA FOR AN HOUR OR TWO. LOW
STRATUS IN PLACE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA SHOULD SPREAD
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY AND COVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA BY LATE IN THE DAY. THEREFORE WITH THE CAA AND
CLOUD COVER...LITTLE RECOVERY IN TEMPS EXPECTED. KEPT TEMPS COOL
WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH...WITH UPPER 50S SOUTH WHERE
MORE SUN IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 344 AM CDT TUE OCT 28 2014

EFFECTS OF CURRENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BE EAST OF IA BY TONIGHT
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING KEEPING FAIR WEATHER IN THE FORECAST TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY. ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO WED NIGHT INTO THU AS
REMNANTS OF CURRENT TROUGH OFF BC COAST REACHES THE MO VALLEY BY
EARLY THU. FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM APPEARS MORE KINEMATIC THAN
THERMODYNAMIC BASED ON EXAMINATION OF 300-310K LAYER...BUT THE
FORCING IS FAIRLY DEEP AND HAVE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCES NORTH
AND EAST LATE WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THU MORNING FOR A START. POPS
MAY NEEDED TO BE EXPANDED IN AREA AND MAGNITUDE IF THESE TRENDS
CONTINUE...BUT LACK OF WIDESPREAD SATURATION WILL LIMIT ANY
AMOUNTS REGARDLESS.

THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER BUT EVEN
COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
PATTERN AMPLIFIES AGAIN AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE
UPPER MS VALLEY/GREAT LAKES. HIGHS FRI AND SAT WILL LIKELY ONLY MAKE
THE 40S WITH WIDESPREAD SUB-FREEZING TEMPS FRI NIGHT. MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA HAS SEEN FREEZING TEMPS ALREADY AND IT IS ALSO
BEYOND CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS SO NO HEADLINES WILL BE ISSUED. THEY
ARE DONE FOR THE SEASON.

IA WILL GET INTO STRONG RETURN FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH SUN
WITH POPS INCREASING INTO MON AS LONG WAVE TROUGH EXITS THE ROCKIES
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PROGRESSION SPACIALLY AND TEMPORALLY SO HAVE CHANCE POPS FROM LATE
SUN INTO INTO MON NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL TAF SITES...SHIFTING ALL WINDS
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN TAF SITES...INCLUDING KMCW KALO AND KFOD NEAR 12Z.
CEILINGS AROUND 3 TO 4KFT EXPECTED MUCH OF TUESDAY ALONG WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...CURTIS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280451
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1151 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS PRECIP AND TO SOME EXTENT...TEMPS. AS OF
3 PM THE SURFACE LOW HAS LIFTED INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SHOULD LIFT
INTO WESTERN WI BY 00Z.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER TO CLEAR THE AREA.  CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE FRONT
CHARLES CITY TO JUST WEST OF IOWA FALLS TO AMES THEN BACK SOUTHWEST
TO ROUGHLY CRESTON.  THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY
THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z.  THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY TIED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THIS WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THROUGH
00Z.

NEXT THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...THROUGH 12Z.  THERE IS
ALSO SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL BUT NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY.  THAT IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT.  I AM EXPECTING SOME
SHOWERS ALONG WITH LOWER CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE.

EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FROPA AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.  THERE WILL BE A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
WITH WIND SPEEDS 15G25 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT BUT MORE
SO ON TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK BUT
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING AND A STRATOCU DECK WILL BE MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND THIS TIME.  LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD NOT MAKE
IT VERY FAR INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z BUT THE WINDS SHOULD
PRODUCE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING
OUT.

TEMPS WILL VARY A FAIR AMOUNT HOWEVER WITH UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NW
CWA BUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEMPS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS RELATIVELY QUIET AND BECOMES ACTIVE
BY ITS CONCLUSION. ON TUESDAY MORNING THE STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD. BKN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH AS US 20/I-80 ZONE PER NAM/RAP
GUIDANCE. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND CAA WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
TO NOTABLY LOWER LEVELS THAN THOSE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. EVEN
AREAS WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SEE NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED AS WELL WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH THE CWA BEING BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING WX SYSTEM AND THE NEXT ONE DROPPING SE FROM CANADA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE CLIPPER-LIKE...MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY AND
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED MOISTURE AND FORCING. MODELS
HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM. THEY HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THEIR FLIP FLOPPING
TREND...WITH BLEND SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCES. HAVE REMOVED THEM FOR
CONSISTENCY AND WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS INSERT IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

WX SYSTEM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS BECOMING MORE OF THE
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS. WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. HELPING FACILITATE A WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES. FORCING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE TAILING TROF IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A BROAD
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FROM THE KS/OK
AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FORCING BECOMES MORE COHERENT BY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT BY THEN THE SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING EASTWARD. ATTM AM
NOT CONCERNED ABOUT TSRA GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK PROGGED INSTABILITY
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL TAF SITES...SHIFTING ALL WINDS
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN TAF SITES...INCLUDING KMCW KALO AND KFOD NEAR 12Z.
CEILINGS AROUND 3 TO 4KFT EXPECTED MUCH OF TUESDAY ALONG WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...CURTIS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280451
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1151 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS PRECIP AND TO SOME EXTENT...TEMPS. AS OF
3 PM THE SURFACE LOW HAS LIFTED INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SHOULD LIFT
INTO WESTERN WI BY 00Z.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER TO CLEAR THE AREA.  CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE FRONT
CHARLES CITY TO JUST WEST OF IOWA FALLS TO AMES THEN BACK SOUTHWEST
TO ROUGHLY CRESTON.  THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY
THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z.  THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY TIED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THIS WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THROUGH
00Z.

NEXT THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...THROUGH 12Z.  THERE IS
ALSO SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL BUT NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY.  THAT IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT.  I AM EXPECTING SOME
SHOWERS ALONG WITH LOWER CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE.

EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FROPA AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.  THERE WILL BE A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
WITH WIND SPEEDS 15G25 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT BUT MORE
SO ON TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK BUT
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING AND A STRATOCU DECK WILL BE MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND THIS TIME.  LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD NOT MAKE
IT VERY FAR INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z BUT THE WINDS SHOULD
PRODUCE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING
OUT.

TEMPS WILL VARY A FAIR AMOUNT HOWEVER WITH UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NW
CWA BUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEMPS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS RELATIVELY QUIET AND BECOMES ACTIVE
BY ITS CONCLUSION. ON TUESDAY MORNING THE STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD. BKN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH AS US 20/I-80 ZONE PER NAM/RAP
GUIDANCE. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND CAA WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
TO NOTABLY LOWER LEVELS THAN THOSE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. EVEN
AREAS WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SEE NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED AS WELL WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH THE CWA BEING BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING WX SYSTEM AND THE NEXT ONE DROPPING SE FROM CANADA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE CLIPPER-LIKE...MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY AND
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED MOISTURE AND FORCING. MODELS
HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM. THEY HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THEIR FLIP FLOPPING
TREND...WITH BLEND SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCES. HAVE REMOVED THEM FOR
CONSISTENCY AND WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS INSERT IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

WX SYSTEM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS BECOMING MORE OF THE
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS. WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. HELPING FACILITATE A WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES. FORCING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE TAILING TROF IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A BROAD
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FROM THE KS/OK
AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FORCING BECOMES MORE COHERENT BY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT BY THEN THE SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING EASTWARD. ATTM AM
NOT CONCERNED ABOUT TSRA GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK PROGGED INSTABILITY
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH ALL TAF SITES...SHIFTING ALL WINDS
OUT OF THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE
INTO NORTHERN TAF SITES...INCLUDING KMCW KALO AND KFOD NEAR 12Z.
CEILINGS AROUND 3 TO 4KFT EXPECTED MUCH OF TUESDAY ALONG WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS 20 TO 25KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...CURTIS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 272340
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS PRECIP AND TO SOME EXTENT...TEMPS. AS OF
3 PM THE SURFACE LOW HAS LIFTED INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SHOULD LIFT
INTO WESTERN WI BY 00Z.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER TO CLEAR THE AREA.  CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE FRONT
CHARLES CITY TO JUST WEST OF IOWA FALLS TO AMES THEN BACK SOUTHWEST
TO ROUGHLY CRESTON.  THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY
THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z.  THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY TIED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THIS WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THROUGH
00Z.

NEXT THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...THROUGH 12Z.  THERE IS
ALSO SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL BUT NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY.  THAT IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT.  I AM EXPECTING SOME
SHOWERS ALONG WITH LOWER CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE.

EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FROPA AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.  THERE WILL BE A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
WITH WIND SPEEDS 15G25 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT BUT MORE
SO ON TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK BUT
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING AND A STRATOCU DECK WILL BE MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND THIS TIME.  LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD NOT MAKE
IT VERY FAR INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z BUT THE WINDS SHOULD
PRODUCE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING
OUT.

TEMPS WILL VARY A FAIR AMOUNT HOWEVER WITH UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NW
CWA BUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEMPS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS RELATIVELY QUIET AND BECOMES ACTIVE
BY ITS CONCLUSION. ON TUESDAY MORNING THE STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD. BKN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH AS US 20/I-80 ZONE PER NAM/RAP
GUIDANCE. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND CAA WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
TO NOTABLY LOWER LEVELS THAN THOSE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. EVEN
AREAS WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SEE NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED AS WELL WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH THE CWA BEING BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING WX SYSTEM AND THE NEXT ONE DROPPING SE FROM CANADA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE CLIPPER-LIKE...MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY AND
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED MOISTURE AND FORCING. MODELS
HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM. THEY HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THEIR FLIP FLOPPING
TREND...WITH BLEND SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCES. HAVE REMOVED THEM FOR
CONSISTENCY AND WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS INSERT IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

WX SYSTEM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS BECOMING MORE OF THE
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS. WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. HELPING FACILITATE A WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES. FORCING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE TAILING TROF IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A BROAD
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FROM THE KS/OK
AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FORCING BECOMES MORE COHERENT BY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT BY THEN THE SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING EASTWARD. ATTM AM
NOT CONCERNED ABOUT TSRA GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK PROGGED INSTABILITY
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 640 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH CURRENTLY AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH
KOTM AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. BRIEF MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE NEAR
KFOD/KMCW EARLY THEN VFR. MVFR CIGS ROTATING SOUTHEAST FROM NORTH
DAKOTA WILL BE NEAR THE IA/MN BORDER TOWARD 12Z AND POSSIBLE MAY
CLIP NORTHERN SITES BEFORE SHIFTING BACK EAST. THIN CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING WITH CIG HEIGHTS 3-4KFT.
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY MID MORNING AND CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 272031
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
331 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT IS PRECIP AND TO SOME EXTENT...TEMPS. AS OF
3 PM THE SURFACE LOW HAS LIFTED INTO NORTHEAST IOWA AND SHOULD LIFT
INTO WESTERN WI BY 00Z.  TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL TAKE A LITTLE
LONGER TO CLEAR THE AREA.  CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS THE FRONT
CHARLES CITY TO JUST WEST OF IOWA FALLS TO AMES THEN BACK SOUTHWEST
TO ROUGHLY CRESTON.  THE FRONT WILL EXIT THE FAR SOUTHEAST EARLY
THIS EVENING...BETWEEN 00Z AND 03Z.  THERE IS SOME WEAK FORCING AND
INSTABILITY TIED TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THIS WILL BE
RESPONSIBLE FOR SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO THROUGH
00Z.

NEXT THERE IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE PLAINS.  THIS UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...THROUGH 12Z.  THERE IS
ALSO SOME FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE AS WELL BUT NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY.  THAT IS MAINLY TIED TO THE FRONT.  I AM EXPECTING SOME
SHOWERS ALONG WITH LOWER CLOUDS MOVING IN LATER WITH THE UPPER
TROUGH PASSAGE.

EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE BEHIND THE FROPA AND AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROUGH.  THERE WILL BE A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING
WITH WIND SPEEDS 15G25 MPH BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.  STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR LATE TONIGHT BUT MORE
SO ON TUESDAY.  WINDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE AROUND DAYBREAK BUT
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY MORNING AND A STRATOCU DECK WILL BE MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND THIS TIME.  LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD NOT MAKE
IT VERY FAR INTO THE FORECAST AREA BY 12Z BUT THE WINDS SHOULD
PRODUCE ENOUGH MIXING TO PREVENT TEMPS FROM COMPLETELY BOTTOMING
OUT.

TEMPS WILL VARY A FAIR AMOUNT HOWEVER WITH UPPER 30S IN THE FAR NW
CWA BUT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST TEMPS WILL STILL BE FAIRLY MILD WITH
LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 328 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD BEGINS RELATIVELY QUIET AND BECOMES ACTIVE
BY ITS CONCLUSION. ON TUESDAY MORNING THE STRATUS/STRATOCU DECK
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD. BKN
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS FAR SOUTH AS US 20/I-80 ZONE PER NAM/RAP
GUIDANCE. COMBINATION OF CLOUDS AND CAA WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES
TO NOTABLY LOWER LEVELS THAN THOSE SEEN THE PAST FEW DAYS. EVEN
AREAS WITH MORE SUNSHINE IN THE SOUTHERN CWA WILL SEE NOTICEABLY
COOLER TEMPS. WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED AS WELL WITH GUSTS IN THE 20 TO
30 MPH RANGE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH THE CWA BEING BETWEEN THE
DEPARTING WX SYSTEM AND THE NEXT ONE DROPPING SE FROM CANADA. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE CLIPPER-LIKE...MOVING RELATIVELY QUICKLY AND
BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF ELEVATED MOISTURE AND FORCING. MODELS
HAVE COME INTO CLOSER AGREEMENT REGARDING TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM. THEY HAVE ALSO CONTINUED THEIR FLIP FLOPPING
TREND...WITH BLEND SHOWING SLIGHT CHANCES. HAVE REMOVED THEM FOR
CONSISTENCY AND WILL LET SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS INSERT IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES.

WX SYSTEM LATE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK IS BECOMING MORE OF THE
FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. MODELS ARE TRENDING WETTER THAN
PREVIOUS. WESTERN CONUS RIDGE WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL U.S. HELPING FACILITATE A WARMUP IN TEMPERATURES. FORCING IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE TAILING TROF IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A BROAD
AREA OF LIGHT PRECIP BY SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING FROM THE KS/OK
AREA INTO THE GREAT LAKES. FORCING BECOMES MORE COHERENT BY MONDAY
EVENING...BUT BY THEN THE SYSTEM WILL BE PULLING EASTWARD. ATTM AM
NOT CONCERNED ABOUT TSRA GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK PROGGED INSTABILITY
VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 100 PM CDT MON OCT 27 2014

COLD FRONT GENERALLY FROM KMCW TO KBNW TO KRDK WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
TAF LOCATIONS AS A SURFACE LOW NEAR KALO PUSHES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST
BY 00Z.  AHEAD OF THE FRONT IT APPEARS ANY INSTABILITY WILL BE EAST
OF THE TAF LOCATIONS SO PRECIP WL LIKELY BE A BIT MORE LIMITED.
BEHIND THE FROPA A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND SOME FORCING IS PRODUCING
SCT SHRA AND ISOLD TSRA WHICH SHOULD MAINLY AFFECT KFOD AND POSSIBLY
KMCW BETWEEN 21Z0-00Z.  VCSH IN MOST TAF FORECASTS GIVEN THE
EXPECTED FROPA AND WEAK FORCING WITH THE FRONT.  WINDS WILL BECOME
NW AND BE GUSTY TODAY BEHIND THE FRONT. COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
INCREASE AFT 12Z AND WIND WILL INCREASE AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...FAB





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