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000
FXUS63 KDMX 062315
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
515 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 418 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES SKYROCKETED TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA WHERE
READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE READINGS WERE A
RESULT OF MUCH WARMER THAN EXPECTED 925-950 MB TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER DEWPOINTS THAT EASILY MIXED TO THE SFC. A SHORT WAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THOUGH WITH THE LOW LEVELS
BELOW 800 MB REMAINING QUITE DRY. AN ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND WILL DROP THE VERY WARM 925-950
MB TEMPERATURES 8-10C BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 418 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING...SHOULD PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
TYPE STILL IN QUESTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE
A WARM LAYER NEAR 925 MB MAY CAUSE MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS. SFC
TEMPERATURES A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. EXPECT SNOW NORTH WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE AND A
MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW LONG CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID TO
END PORTION OF THE WEEK. H85 TEMPERATURES OF 7-14C TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL BE COMMON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND STILL
HOLD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 70S. ANY RESIDUAL SNOW PACK OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE NEARLY GONE BY TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW FURTHER
WARMING TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THAT TIME. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK NOW TRENDING WARMER AND CLOSER
TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH ANY COLD AIR RELEGATED WELL TO THE
NORTH. ENJOY!

&&

.AVIATION...07/00Z
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SW OR
VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO NW AND INCREASE ON SAT AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST AND NO PRECIP
OR OBSCURATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 062315
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
515 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 418 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES SKYROCKETED TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA WHERE
READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE READINGS WERE A
RESULT OF MUCH WARMER THAN EXPECTED 925-950 MB TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER DEWPOINTS THAT EASILY MIXED TO THE SFC. A SHORT WAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THOUGH WITH THE LOW LEVELS
BELOW 800 MB REMAINING QUITE DRY. AN ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND WILL DROP THE VERY WARM 925-950
MB TEMPERATURES 8-10C BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 418 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING...SHOULD PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
TYPE STILL IN QUESTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE
A WARM LAYER NEAR 925 MB MAY CAUSE MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS. SFC
TEMPERATURES A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. EXPECT SNOW NORTH WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE AND A
MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW LONG CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID TO
END PORTION OF THE WEEK. H85 TEMPERATURES OF 7-14C TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL BE COMMON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND STILL
HOLD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 70S. ANY RESIDUAL SNOW PACK OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE NEARLY GONE BY TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW FURTHER
WARMING TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THAT TIME. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK NOW TRENDING WARMER AND CLOSER
TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH ANY COLD AIR RELEGATED WELL TO THE
NORTH. ENJOY!

&&

.AVIATION...07/00Z
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SW OR
VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO NW AND INCREASE ON SAT AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST AND NO PRECIP
OR OBSCURATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 062315
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
515 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 418 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES SKYROCKETED TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA WHERE
READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE READINGS WERE A
RESULT OF MUCH WARMER THAN EXPECTED 925-950 MB TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER DEWPOINTS THAT EASILY MIXED TO THE SFC. A SHORT WAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THOUGH WITH THE LOW LEVELS
BELOW 800 MB REMAINING QUITE DRY. AN ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND WILL DROP THE VERY WARM 925-950
MB TEMPERATURES 8-10C BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 418 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING...SHOULD PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
TYPE STILL IN QUESTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE
A WARM LAYER NEAR 925 MB MAY CAUSE MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS. SFC
TEMPERATURES A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. EXPECT SNOW NORTH WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE AND A
MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW LONG CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID TO
END PORTION OF THE WEEK. H85 TEMPERATURES OF 7-14C TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL BE COMMON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND STILL
HOLD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 70S. ANY RESIDUAL SNOW PACK OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE NEARLY GONE BY TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW FURTHER
WARMING TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THAT TIME. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK NOW TRENDING WARMER AND CLOSER
TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH ANY COLD AIR RELEGATED WELL TO THE
NORTH. ENJOY!

&&

.AVIATION...07/00Z
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SW OR
VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO NW AND INCREASE ON SAT AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST AND NO PRECIP
OR OBSCURATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 062315
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
515 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 418 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES SKYROCKETED TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA WHERE
READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE READINGS WERE A
RESULT OF MUCH WARMER THAN EXPECTED 925-950 MB TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER DEWPOINTS THAT EASILY MIXED TO THE SFC. A SHORT WAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THOUGH WITH THE LOW LEVELS
BELOW 800 MB REMAINING QUITE DRY. AN ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND WILL DROP THE VERY WARM 925-950
MB TEMPERATURES 8-10C BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 418 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING...SHOULD PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
TYPE STILL IN QUESTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE
A WARM LAYER NEAR 925 MB MAY CAUSE MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS. SFC
TEMPERATURES A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. EXPECT SNOW NORTH WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE AND A
MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW LONG CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID TO
END PORTION OF THE WEEK. H85 TEMPERATURES OF 7-14C TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL BE COMMON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND STILL
HOLD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 70S. ANY RESIDUAL SNOW PACK OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE NEARLY GONE BY TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW FURTHER
WARMING TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THAT TIME. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK NOW TRENDING WARMER AND CLOSER
TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH ANY COLD AIR RELEGATED WELL TO THE
NORTH. ENJOY!

&&

.AVIATION...07/00Z
ISSUED AT 515 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. LIGHT SW OR
VRB WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL TURN TO NW AND INCREASE ON SAT AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH. ONLY HIGH CLOUDS ARE FORECAST AND NO PRECIP
OR OBSCURATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 062219
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
419 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 418 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES SKYROCKETED TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA WHERE
READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE READINGS WERE A
RESULT OF MUCH WARMER THAN EXPECTED 925-950 MB TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER DEWPOINTS THAT EASILY MIXED TO THE SFC. A SHORT WAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THOUGH WITH THE LOW LEVELS
BELOW 800 MB REMAINING QUITE DRY. AN ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND WILL DROP THE VERY WARM 925-950
MB TEMPERATURES 8-10C BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 418 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING...SHOULD PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
TYPE STILL IN QUESTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE
A WARM LAYER NEAR 925 MB MAY CAUSE MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS. SFC
TEMPERATURES A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. EXPECT SNOW NORTH WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE AND A
MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW LONG CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID TO
END PORTION OF THE WEEK. H85 TEMPERATURES OF 7-14C TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL BE COMMON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND STILL
HOLD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 70S. ANY RESIDUAL SNOW PACK OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE NEARLY GONE BY TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW FURTHER
WARMING TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THAT TIME. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK NOW TRENDING WARMER AND CLOSER
TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH ANY COLD AIR RELEGATED WELL TO THE
NORTH. ENJOY!

&&

.AVIATION...06/18Z
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DROPPING OFF
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
BEHIND A WEAK COOL FRONT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT
AS WELL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 062219
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
419 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 418 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES SKYROCKETED TODAY OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA WHERE
READINGS WERE IN THE LOWER 50S TO LOWER 60S. THESE READINGS WERE A
RESULT OF MUCH WARMER THAN EXPECTED 925-950 MB TEMPERATURES AND
DRIER DEWPOINTS THAT EASILY MIXED TO THE SFC. A SHORT WAVE WILL
PASS THROUGH OVERNIGHT AND WILL BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE
STATE. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THOUGH WITH THE LOW LEVELS
BELOW 800 MB REMAINING QUITE DRY. AN ASSOCIATED SFC BOUNDARY WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVERNIGHT AS WELL AND WILL DROP THE VERY WARM 925-950
MB TEMPERATURES 8-10C BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THAT SAID...LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MILD IN THE 20S TO LOWER 30S.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 418 PM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

TEMPERATURES WILL COOLER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR SEASONAL
VALUES ON SATURDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE MORE
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND WITH SUFFICIENT FORCING...SHOULD PRODUCE
PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. PRECIPITATION
TYPE STILL IN QUESTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE SYSTEM WHERE
A WARM LAYER NEAR 925 MB MAY CAUSE MELTING OF HYDROMETEORS. SFC
TEMPERATURES A BIT UNCERTAIN AS WELL AN WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S. EXPECT SNOW NORTH WITH AROUND AN INCH POSSIBLE AND A
MIX OF RAIN/FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE.
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO SATURDAY. HIGHS WILL
DEPEND ON HOW LONG CLOUDS LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO MORE ZONAL
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH VERY MILD CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID TO
END PORTION OF THE WEEK. H85 TEMPERATURES OF 7-14C TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WILL BE COMMON WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S AND STILL
HOLD THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW 70S. ANY RESIDUAL SNOW PACK OVER THE
NORTHEAST SHOULD BE NEARLY GONE BY TUESDAY AND WILL ALLOW FURTHER
WARMING TO SPREAD INTO NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THAT TIME. LONG RANGE
GUIDANCE NEAR THE END OF THE WEEK NOW TRENDING WARMER AND CLOSER
TO THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH ANY COLD AIR RELEGATED WELL TO THE
NORTH. ENJOY!

&&

.AVIATION...06/18Z
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DROPPING OFF
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
BEHIND A WEAK COOL FRONT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT
AS WELL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 061727
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1127 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MINOR UPDATE AS TEMPS AT A FEW SITES WERE CLIMBING FASTER THAN
FORECAST...SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. MAIN SITES WERE
IN THE NW CWA AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.  SOME
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING BUT
THE BIGGER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARM UP THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.  SNOW COVER ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA WILL HINDER
THE WARM UP IN THOSE AREAS BUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE SNOW
COVER IS LACKING WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.  FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S AND THIS MAY BE
TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTHWEST YOU GO.  WINDS GO FROM
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST OR WEST AND ARE NOT TOO STRONG AND ALOFT THEY
ARE MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SO WE DON`T HAVE THE GREATEST SET UP FOR
MIXING BUT IF WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH A LITTLE DEEPER
LAYER THEN WE COULD SEE BETTER MIXING AND TEMPS EASILY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LONGER TERM CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON TRANSITION IN UPPER PATTERN
WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WITH A
TRANSITION IN THE JET STREAM FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE THIS PAST MONTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW...ONE LATE
TONIGHT AND ANOTHER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE
BOTH ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THE SECOND SYSTEM PRODUCES
SUFFICIENT LIFT IN THE STATE FOR DEEPER SATURATION AND THE THREAT
OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN AN INCH AT THIS POINT.

AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE...THE JET WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY MID
TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WSW
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING WARMER
CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO ON HOW STUBBORN THE COOLER
AIR DEPARTS NORTHEAST IOWA...OTHERWISE BOTH HAVE A VERY MILD
AIRMASS IN PLACE BY MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06/18Z
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DROPPING OFF
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
BEHIND A WEAK COOL FRONT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT
AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SECOND /AND FINAL/ SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WAS
RELEASED EARLIER TODAY...AND CALLS FOR A NEAR NORMAL RISK OF
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY JUNE. THAT OUTLOOK DOES NOT GIVE FULL
CONSIDERATION TO ICE JAMS...HOWEVER...AS ICE JAMS TEND TO BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED EVENTS. THERE HAS BEEN INTEREST IN ICE JAM POTENTIAL NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE FORECAST WARMUP.

ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS THICK ON AREA RIVERS...AND IS THUS PRIMED FOR AN
ICE JAM EVENT...TYPICALLY A FORCING ELEMENT SUCH AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS. ABSENT EITHER OF THOSE...THEN THERMAL BREAK-UP OF
THE ICE IS THE MOST LIKELY ROUTE WHICH DOES NOT NORMALLY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THE GOING FORECAST IS NOT SHOWING HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK...AND THE EXISTING SNOWPACK
IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THUS...THE
ICE JAM THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
ISSUES MAY OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HAVING SAID
THAT...SINCE MARCH IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR ICE JAMMING...WE
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING.

AS AN ASIDE...IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK...THEN FOR ICE
JAMS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY SNOWMELT...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE 40S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START
THE ICE JAM PROCESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD NOT MATTER MUCH.
ALSO...BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...WHENEVER THE DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IS 42F OR HIGHER...THEN ICE JAMS ALMOST ALWAYS OCCURRED
WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. FOR ICE JAMS DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE MIDDLE 30S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 061727
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1127 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

MINOR UPDATE AS TEMPS AT A FEW SITES WERE CLIMBING FASTER THAN
FORECAST...SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES. MAIN SITES WERE
IN THE NW CWA AND THE SOUTH CENTRAL. REMAINDER OF FORECAST REMAINS
ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.  SOME
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING BUT
THE BIGGER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARM UP THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.  SNOW COVER ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA WILL HINDER
THE WARM UP IN THOSE AREAS BUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE SNOW
COVER IS LACKING WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.  FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S AND THIS MAY BE
TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTHWEST YOU GO.  WINDS GO FROM
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST OR WEST AND ARE NOT TOO STRONG AND ALOFT THEY
ARE MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SO WE DON`T HAVE THE GREATEST SET UP FOR
MIXING BUT IF WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH A LITTLE DEEPER
LAYER THEN WE COULD SEE BETTER MIXING AND TEMPS EASILY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LONGER TERM CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON TRANSITION IN UPPER PATTERN
WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WITH A
TRANSITION IN THE JET STREAM FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE THIS PAST MONTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW...ONE LATE
TONIGHT AND ANOTHER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE
BOTH ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THE SECOND SYSTEM PRODUCES
SUFFICIENT LIFT IN THE STATE FOR DEEPER SATURATION AND THE THREAT
OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN AN INCH AT THIS POINT.

AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE...THE JET WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY MID
TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WSW
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING WARMER
CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO ON HOW STUBBORN THE COOLER
AIR DEPARTS NORTHEAST IOWA...OTHERWISE BOTH HAVE A VERY MILD
AIRMASS IN PLACE BY MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06/18Z
ISSUED AT 1127 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS DROPPING OFF
TONIGHT...THEN SHIFTING TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST SATURDAY
BEHIND A WEAK COOL FRONT. MID LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASE TONIGHT
AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SECOND /AND FINAL/ SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WAS
RELEASED EARLIER TODAY...AND CALLS FOR A NEAR NORMAL RISK OF
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY JUNE. THAT OUTLOOK DOES NOT GIVE FULL
CONSIDERATION TO ICE JAMS...HOWEVER...AS ICE JAMS TEND TO BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED EVENTS. THERE HAS BEEN INTEREST IN ICE JAM POTENTIAL NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE FORECAST WARMUP.

ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS THICK ON AREA RIVERS...AND IS THUS PRIMED FOR AN
ICE JAM EVENT...TYPICALLY A FORCING ELEMENT SUCH AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS. ABSENT EITHER OF THOSE...THEN THERMAL BREAK-UP OF
THE ICE IS THE MOST LIKELY ROUTE WHICH DOES NOT NORMALLY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THE GOING FORECAST IS NOT SHOWING HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK...AND THE EXISTING SNOWPACK
IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THUS...THE
ICE JAM THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
ISSUES MAY OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HAVING SAID
THAT...SINCE MARCH IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR ICE JAMMING...WE
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING.

AS AN ASIDE...IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK...THEN FOR ICE
JAMS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY SNOWMELT...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE 40S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START
THE ICE JAM PROCESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD NOT MATTER MUCH.
ALSO...BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...WHENEVER THE DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IS 42F OR HIGHER...THEN ICE JAMS ALMOST ALWAYS OCCURRED
WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. FOR ICE JAMS DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE MIDDLE 30S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 061122
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
517 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.  SOME
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING BUT
THE BIGGER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARM UP THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.  SNOW COVER ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA WILL HINDER
THE WARM UP IN THOSE AREAS BUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE SNOW
COVER IS LACKING WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.  FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S AND THIS MAY BE
TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTHWEST YOU GO.  WINDS GO FROM
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST OR WEST AND ARE NOT TOO STRONG AND ALOFT THEY
ARE MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SO WE DON`T HAVE THE GREATEST SET UP FOR
MIXING BUT IF WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH A LITTLE DEEPER
LAYER THEN WE COULD SEE BETTER MIXING AND TEMPS EASILY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LONGER TERM CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON TRANSITION IN UPPER PATTERN
WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WITH A
TRANSITION IN THE JET STREAM FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE THIS PAST MONTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW...ONE LATE
TONIGHT AND ANOTHER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE
BOTH ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THE SECOND SYSTEM PRODUCES
SUFFICIENT LIFT IN THE STATE FOR DEEPER SATURATION AND THE THREAT
OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN AN INCH AT THIS POINT.

AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE...THE JET WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY MID
TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WSW
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING WARMER
CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO ON HOW STUBBORN THE COOLER
AIR DEPARTS NORTHEAST IOWA...OTHERWISE BOTH HAVE A VERY MILD
AIRMASS IN PLACE BY MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06/12Z
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD OF THE TAF
FORECAST.  A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS
OF 10 TO 15KT.  THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SOME IN THE EVENING THEN PICK
UP AFTER 07/06Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SECOND /AND FINAL/ SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WAS
RELEASED EARLIER TODAY...AND CALLS FOR A NEAR NORMAL RISK OF
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY JUNE. THAT OUTLOOK DOES NOT GIVE FULL
CONSIDERATION TO ICE JAMS...HOWEVER...AS ICE JAMS TEND TO BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED EVENTS. THERE HAS BEEN INTEREST IN ICE JAM POTENTIAL NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE FORECAST WARMUP.

ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS THICK ON AREA RIVERS...AND IS THUS PRIMED FOR AN
ICE JAM EVENT...TYPICALLY A FORCING ELEMENT SUCH AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS. ABSENT EITHER OF THOSE...THEN THERMAL BREAK-UP OF
THE ICE IS THE MOST LIKELY ROUTE WHICH DOES NOT NORMALLY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THE GOING FORECAST IS NOT SHOWING HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK...AND THE EXISTING SNOWPACK
IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THUS...THE
ICE JAM THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
ISSUES MAY OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HAVING SAID
THAT...SINCE MARCH IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR ICE JAMMING...WE
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING.

AS AN ASIDE...IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK...THEN FOR ICE
JAMS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY SNOWMELT...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE 40S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START
THE ICE JAM PROCESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD NOT MATTER MUCH.
ALSO...BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...WHENEVER THE DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IS 42F OR HIGHER...THEN ICE JAMS ALMOST ALWAYS OCCURRED
WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. FOR ICE JAMS DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE MIDDLE 30S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 061122
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
517 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.  SOME
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING BUT
THE BIGGER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARM UP THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.  SNOW COVER ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA WILL HINDER
THE WARM UP IN THOSE AREAS BUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE SNOW
COVER IS LACKING WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.  FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S AND THIS MAY BE
TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTHWEST YOU GO.  WINDS GO FROM
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST OR WEST AND ARE NOT TOO STRONG AND ALOFT THEY
ARE MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SO WE DON`T HAVE THE GREATEST SET UP FOR
MIXING BUT IF WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH A LITTLE DEEPER
LAYER THEN WE COULD SEE BETTER MIXING AND TEMPS EASILY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LONGER TERM CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON TRANSITION IN UPPER PATTERN
WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WITH A
TRANSITION IN THE JET STREAM FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE THIS PAST MONTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW...ONE LATE
TONIGHT AND ANOTHER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE
BOTH ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THE SECOND SYSTEM PRODUCES
SUFFICIENT LIFT IN THE STATE FOR DEEPER SATURATION AND THE THREAT
OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN AN INCH AT THIS POINT.

AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE...THE JET WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY MID
TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WSW
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING WARMER
CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO ON HOW STUBBORN THE COOLER
AIR DEPARTS NORTHEAST IOWA...OTHERWISE BOTH HAVE A VERY MILD
AIRMASS IN PLACE BY MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06/12Z
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD OF THE TAF
FORECAST.  A SOUTHERLY WIND WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWEST AT SPEEDS
OF 10 TO 15KT.  THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SOME IN THE EVENING THEN PICK
UP AFTER 07/06Z.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SECOND /AND FINAL/ SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WAS
RELEASED EARLIER TODAY...AND CALLS FOR A NEAR NORMAL RISK OF
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY JUNE. THAT OUTLOOK DOES NOT GIVE FULL
CONSIDERATION TO ICE JAMS...HOWEVER...AS ICE JAMS TEND TO BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED EVENTS. THERE HAS BEEN INTEREST IN ICE JAM POTENTIAL NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE FORECAST WARMUP.

ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS THICK ON AREA RIVERS...AND IS THUS PRIMED FOR AN
ICE JAM EVENT...TYPICALLY A FORCING ELEMENT SUCH AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS. ABSENT EITHER OF THOSE...THEN THERMAL BREAK-UP OF
THE ICE IS THE MOST LIKELY ROUTE WHICH DOES NOT NORMALLY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THE GOING FORECAST IS NOT SHOWING HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK...AND THE EXISTING SNOWPACK
IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THUS...THE
ICE JAM THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
ISSUES MAY OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HAVING SAID
THAT...SINCE MARCH IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR ICE JAMMING...WE
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING.

AS AN ASIDE...IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK...THEN FOR ICE
JAMS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY SNOWMELT...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE 40S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START
THE ICE JAM PROCESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD NOT MATTER MUCH.
ALSO...BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...WHENEVER THE DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IS 42F OR HIGHER...THEN ICE JAMS ALMOST ALWAYS OCCURRED
WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. FOR ICE JAMS DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE MIDDLE 30S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 060936
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
336 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.  SOME
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING BUT
THE BIGGER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARM UP THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.  SNOW COVER ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA WILL HINDER
THE WARM UP IN THOSE AREAS BUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE SNOW
COVER IS LACKING WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.  FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S AND THIS MAY BE
TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTHWEST YOU GO.  WINDS GO FROM
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST OR WEST AND ARE NOT TOO STRONG AND ALOFT THEY
ARE MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SO WE DON`T HAVE THE GREATEST SET UP FOR
MIXING BUT IF WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH A LITTLE DEEPER
LAYER THEN WE COULD SEE BETTER MIXING AND TEMPS EASILY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LONGER TERM CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON TRANSITION IN UPPER PATTERN
WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WITH A
TRANSITION IN THE JET STREAM FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE THIS PAST MONTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW...ONE LATE
TONIGHT AND ANOTHER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE
BOTH ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THE SECOND SYSTEM PRODUCES
SUFFICIENT LIFT IN THE STATE FOR DEEPER SATURATION AND THE THREAT
OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN AN INCH AT THIS POINT.

AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE...THE JET WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY MID
TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WSW
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING WARMER
CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO ON HOW STUBBORN THE COOLER
AIR DEPARTS NORTHEAST IOWA...OTHERWISE BOTH HAVE A VERY MILD
AIRMASS IN PLACE BY MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06/06Z
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND HAD NO
MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SECOND /AND FINAL/ SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WAS
RELEASED EARLIER TODAY...AND CALLS FOR A NEAR NORMAL RISK OF
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY JUNE. THAT OUTLOOK DOES NOT GIVE FULL
CONSIDERATION TO ICE JAMS...HOWEVER...AS ICE JAMS TEND TO BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED EVENTS. THERE HAS BEEN INTEREST IN ICE JAM POTENTIAL NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE FORECAST WARMUP.

ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS THICK ON AREA RIVERS...AND IS THUS PRIMED FOR AN
ICE JAM EVENT...TYPICALLY A FORCING ELEMENT SUCH AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS. ABSENT EITHER OF THOSE...THEN THERMAL BREAK-UP OF
THE ICE IS THE MOST LIKELY ROUTE WHICH DOES NOT NORMALLY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THE GOING FORECAST IS NOT SHOWING HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK...AND THE EXISTING SNOWPACK
IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THUS...THE
ICE JAM THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
ISSUES MAY OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HAVING SAID
THAT...SINCE MARCH IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR ICE JAMMING...WE
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING.

AS AN ASIDE...IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK...THEN FOR ICE
JAMS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY SNOWMELT...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE 40S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START
THE ICE JAM PROCESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD NOT MATTER MUCH.
ALSO...BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...WHENEVER THE DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IS 42F OR HIGHER...THEN ICE JAMS ALMOST ALWAYS OCCURRED
WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. FOR ICE JAMS DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE MIDDLE 30S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 060936
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
336 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

A SHORTWAVE WILL BE EXITING THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING.  SOME
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER WILL LINGER INTO THE MID MORNING BUT
THE BIGGER STORY FOR TODAY WILL BE THE START OF A WARM UP THAT WILL
PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEK.  SNOW COVER ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA WILL HINDER
THE WARM UP IN THOSE AREAS BUT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHERE SNOW
COVER IS LACKING WE SHOULD SEE TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE MID 50S.  FOR
MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID 40S AND THIS MAY BE
TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTHWEST YOU GO.  WINDS GO FROM
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST OR WEST AND ARE NOT TOO STRONG AND ALOFT THEY
ARE MORE WEST TO NORTHWEST SO WE DON`T HAVE THE GREATEST SET UP FOR
MIXING BUT IF WINDS STAY MORE SOUTHERLY THROUGH A LITTLE DEEPER
LAYER THEN WE COULD SEE BETTER MIXING AND TEMPS EASILY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 336 AM CST FRI MAR 6 2015

LONGER TERM CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON TRANSITION IN UPPER PATTERN
WHICH WILL IMPACT TEMPERATURES INTO NEXT WEEK. WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW INTO THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH WITH A
TRANSITION IN THE JET STREAM FARTHER NORTHEAST THAN HAS BEEN THE
CASE THIS PAST MONTH. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE MODERATION OF
TEMPERATURES TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS FOR THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL BE
A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES THAT WILL PASS THROUGH THE FLOW...ONE LATE
TONIGHT AND ANOTHER LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE
BOTH ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...THE SECOND SYSTEM PRODUCES
SUFFICIENT LIFT IN THE STATE FOR DEEPER SATURATION AND THE THREAT
OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT ON SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATION WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT NOTHING MORE
THAN AN INCH AT THIS POINT.

AFTER THIS SHORTWAVE...THE JET WILL LIFT FARTHER NORTH AND EAST
WITH UPPER RIDGING BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BY MID
TO LATE IN THE WORK WEEK. LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME WSW
AND PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK WHICH WILL BRING WARMER
CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO ON HOW STUBBORN THE COOLER
AIR DEPARTS NORTHEAST IOWA...OTHERWISE BOTH HAVE A VERY MILD
AIRMASS IN PLACE BY MIDWEEK WITH LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...06/06Z
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND HAD NO
MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SECOND /AND FINAL/ SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WAS
RELEASED EARLIER TODAY...AND CALLS FOR A NEAR NORMAL RISK OF
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY JUNE. THAT OUTLOOK DOES NOT GIVE FULL
CONSIDERATION TO ICE JAMS...HOWEVER...AS ICE JAMS TEND TO BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED EVENTS. THERE HAS BEEN INTEREST IN ICE JAM POTENTIAL NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE FORECAST WARMUP.

ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS THICK ON AREA RIVERS...AND IS THUS PRIMED FOR AN
ICE JAM EVENT...TYPICALLY A FORCING ELEMENT SUCH AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS. ABSENT EITHER OF THOSE...THEN THERMAL BREAK-UP OF
THE ICE IS THE MOST LIKELY ROUTE WHICH DOES NOT NORMALLY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THE GOING FORECAST IS NOT SHOWING HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK...AND THE EXISTING SNOWPACK
IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THUS...THE
ICE JAM THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
ISSUES MAY OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HAVING SAID
THAT...SINCE MARCH IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR ICE JAMMING...WE
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING.

AS AN ASIDE...IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK...THEN FOR ICE
JAMS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY SNOWMELT...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE 40S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START
THE ICE JAM PROCESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD NOT MATTER MUCH.
ALSO...BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...WHENEVER THE DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IS 42F OR HIGHER...THEN ICE JAMS ALMOST ALWAYS OCCURRED
WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. FOR ICE JAMS DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE MIDDLE 30S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 060525
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1125 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE STATE TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH WAA
ALOFT TONIGHT ACROSS IOWA. AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MAINLY SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. THEREFORE WITH THE WAA...INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY TOWARD MORNING...STEADY TO WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED TOWARD
SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT MAINLY THIS EVENING WITH SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND TEENS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS CERTAINLY THE WARMING
TREND DURING THE PERIOD. A MAJOR FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE
LACK OF SNOW COVER THROUGH NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND MISSOURI AND INTO
SW IOWA. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD WARMING INTO IOWA WITH NO
MODIFICATION TO THE SOUTH BEFORE THE AIR ARRIVES. GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AT 925 MB TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES 20C
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH THE SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
IOWA SHOULD MELT ON BY SATURDAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A SECOND STRONGER WAVE FOLLOWING THAT WOULD
BRING MORE FORCING INTO NORTHERN IOWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
SNOW A BIT OVER THE NORTH AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO LATCH ON
TO THE SECOND IMPULSE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THOUGH A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FOLLOWING THE UPPER
SYSTEM PASSAGE AND BRING A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MAY HAVE
SOME FOG DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WHERE GOOD SNOW MELT OCCURS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND WINDS
DIMINISH.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK NORTHWEST TO ZONAL TO
POSSIBLY RIDGING. SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH IS WILL
PROMOTE GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME RESIDUAL SNOW PACK OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST LIMITS READINGS A BIT. WEDNESDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SPECTACULAR AS THE THERMAL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
THE STATE. POTENTIAL IS THERE TO REACH 70 IN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR DES
MOINES PENDING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT
STILL MILD CONSIDERING THE RECENT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...06/06Z
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND HAD NO
MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SECOND /AND FINAL/ SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WAS
RELEASED EARLIER TODAY...AND CALLS FOR A NEAR NORMAL RISK OF
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY JUNE. THAT OUTLOOK DOES NOT GIVE FULL
CONSIDERATION TO ICE JAMS...HOWEVER...AS ICE JAMS TEND TO BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED EVENTS. THERE HAS BEEN INTEREST IN ICE JAM POTENTIAL NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE FORECAST WARMUP.

ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS THICK ON AREA RIVERS...AND IS THUS PRIMED FOR AN
ICE JAM EVENT...TYPICALLY A FORCING ELEMENT SUCH AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS. ABSENT EITHER OF THOSE...THEN THERMAL BREAK-UP OF
THE ICE IS THE MOST LIKELY ROUTE WHICH DOES NOT NORMALLY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THE GOING FORECAST IS NOT SHOWING HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK...AND THE EXISTING SNOWPACK
IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THUS...THE
ICE JAM THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
ISSUES MAY OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HAVING SAID
THAT...SINCE MARCH IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR ICE JAMMING...WE
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING.

AS AN ASIDE...IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK...THEN FOR ICE
JAMS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY SNOWMELT...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE 40S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START
THE ICE JAM PROCESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD NOT MATTER MUCH.
ALSO...BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...WHENEVER THE DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IS 42F OR HIGHER...THEN ICE JAMS ALMOST ALWAYS OCCURRED
WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. FOR ICE JAMS DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE MIDDLE 30S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 060525
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1125 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE STATE TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH WAA
ALOFT TONIGHT ACROSS IOWA. AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MAINLY SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. THEREFORE WITH THE WAA...INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY TOWARD MORNING...STEADY TO WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED TOWARD
SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT MAINLY THIS EVENING WITH SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND TEENS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS CERTAINLY THE WARMING
TREND DURING THE PERIOD. A MAJOR FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE
LACK OF SNOW COVER THROUGH NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND MISSOURI AND INTO
SW IOWA. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD WARMING INTO IOWA WITH NO
MODIFICATION TO THE SOUTH BEFORE THE AIR ARRIVES. GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AT 925 MB TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES 20C
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH THE SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
IOWA SHOULD MELT ON BY SATURDAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A SECOND STRONGER WAVE FOLLOWING THAT WOULD
BRING MORE FORCING INTO NORTHERN IOWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
SNOW A BIT OVER THE NORTH AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO LATCH ON
TO THE SECOND IMPULSE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THOUGH A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FOLLOWING THE UPPER
SYSTEM PASSAGE AND BRING A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MAY HAVE
SOME FOG DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WHERE GOOD SNOW MELT OCCURS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND WINDS
DIMINISH.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK NORTHWEST TO ZONAL TO
POSSIBLY RIDGING. SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH IS WILL
PROMOTE GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME RESIDUAL SNOW PACK OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST LIMITS READINGS A BIT. WEDNESDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SPECTACULAR AS THE THERMAL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
THE STATE. POTENTIAL IS THERE TO REACH 70 IN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR DES
MOINES PENDING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT
STILL MILD CONSIDERING THE RECENT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...06/06Z
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AND HAD NO
MAJOR CHANGES.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SECOND /AND FINAL/ SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WAS
RELEASED EARLIER TODAY...AND CALLS FOR A NEAR NORMAL RISK OF
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY JUNE. THAT OUTLOOK DOES NOT GIVE FULL
CONSIDERATION TO ICE JAMS...HOWEVER...AS ICE JAMS TEND TO BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED EVENTS. THERE HAS BEEN INTEREST IN ICE JAM POTENTIAL NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE FORECAST WARMUP.

ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS THICK ON AREA RIVERS...AND IS THUS PRIMED FOR AN
ICE JAM EVENT...TYPICALLY A FORCING ELEMENT SUCH AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS. ABSENT EITHER OF THOSE...THEN THERMAL BREAK-UP OF
THE ICE IS THE MOST LIKELY ROUTE WHICH DOES NOT NORMALLY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THE GOING FORECAST IS NOT SHOWING HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK...AND THE EXISTING SNOWPACK
IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THUS...THE
ICE JAM THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
ISSUES MAY OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HAVING SAID
THAT...SINCE MARCH IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR ICE JAMMING...WE
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING.

AS AN ASIDE...IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK...THEN FOR ICE
JAMS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY SNOWMELT...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE 40S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START
THE ICE JAM PROCESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD NOT MATTER MUCH.
ALSO...BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...WHENEVER THE DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IS 42F OR HIGHER...THEN ICE JAMS ALMOST ALWAYS OCCURRED
WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. FOR ICE JAMS DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE MIDDLE 30S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 052330
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
530 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE STATE TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH WAA
ALOFT TONIGHT ACROSS IOWA. AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MAINLY SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. THEREFORE WITH THE WAA...INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY TOWARD MORNING...STEADY TO WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED TOWARD
SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT MAINLY THIS EVENING WITH SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND TEENS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS CERTAINLY THE WARMING
TREND DURING THE PERIOD. A MAJOR FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE
LACK OF SNOW COVER THROUGH NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND MISSOURI AND INTO
SW IOWA. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD WARMING INTO IOWA WITH NO
MODIFICATION TO THE SOUTH BEFORE THE AIR ARRIVES. GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AT 925 MB TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES 20C
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH THE SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
IOWA SHOULD MELT ON BY SATURDAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A SECOND STRONGER WAVE FOLLOWING THAT WOULD
BRING MORE FORCING INTO NORTHERN IOWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
SNOW A BIT OVER THE NORTH AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO LATCH ON
TO THE SECOND IMPULSE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THOUGH A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FOLLOWING THE UPPER
SYSTEM PASSAGE AND BRING A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MAY HAVE
SOME FOG DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WHERE GOOD SNOW MELT OCCURS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND WINDS
DIMINISH.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK NORTHWEST TO ZONAL TO
POSSIBLY RIDGING. SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH IS WILL
PROMOTE GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME RESIDUAL SNOW PACK OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST LIMITS READINGS A BIT. WEDNESDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SPECTACULAR AS THE THERMAL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
THE STATE. POTENTIAL IS THERE TO REACH 70 IN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR DES
MOINES PENDING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT
STILL MILD CONSIDERING THE RECENT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...06/00Z
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRINGS A WIND SHIFT
AND INCREASE TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. NAM IS VERY BULLISH WITH LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING BUT THE SHORTWAVE LACKS ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST WITH THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SECOND /AND FINAL/ SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WAS
RELEASED EARLIER TODAY...AND CALLS FOR A NEAR NORMAL RISK OF
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY JUNE. THAT OUTLOOK DOES NOT GIVE FULL
CONSIDERATION TO ICE JAMS...HOWEVER...AS ICE JAMS TEND TO BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED EVENTS. THERE HAS BEEN INTEREST IN ICE JAM POTENTIAL NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE FORECAST WARMUP.

ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS THICK ON AREA RIVERS...AND IS THUS PRIMED FOR AN
ICE JAM EVENT...TYPICALLY A FORCING ELEMENT SUCH AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS. ABSENT EITHER OF THOSE...THEN THERMAL BREAK-UP OF
THE ICE IS THE MOST LIKELY ROUTE WHICH DOES NOT NORMALLY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THE GOING FORECAST IS NOT SHOWING HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK...AND THE EXISTING SNOWPACK
IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THUS...THE
ICE JAM THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
ISSUES MAY OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HAVING SAID
THAT...SINCE MARCH IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR ICE JAMMING...WE
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING.

AS AN ASIDE...IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK...THEN FOR ICE
JAMS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY SNOWMELT...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE 40S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START
THE ICE JAM PROCESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD NOT MATTER MUCH.
ALSO...BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...WHENEVER THE DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IS 42F OR HIGHER...THEN ICE JAMS ALMOST ALWAYS OCCURRED
WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. FOR ICE JAMS DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE MIDDLE 30S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 052330
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
530 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE STATE TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH WAA
ALOFT TONIGHT ACROSS IOWA. AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MAINLY SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. THEREFORE WITH THE WAA...INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY TOWARD MORNING...STEADY TO WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED TOWARD
SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT MAINLY THIS EVENING WITH SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND TEENS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS CERTAINLY THE WARMING
TREND DURING THE PERIOD. A MAJOR FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE
LACK OF SNOW COVER THROUGH NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND MISSOURI AND INTO
SW IOWA. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD WARMING INTO IOWA WITH NO
MODIFICATION TO THE SOUTH BEFORE THE AIR ARRIVES. GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AT 925 MB TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES 20C
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH THE SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
IOWA SHOULD MELT ON BY SATURDAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A SECOND STRONGER WAVE FOLLOWING THAT WOULD
BRING MORE FORCING INTO NORTHERN IOWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
SNOW A BIT OVER THE NORTH AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO LATCH ON
TO THE SECOND IMPULSE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THOUGH A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FOLLOWING THE UPPER
SYSTEM PASSAGE AND BRING A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MAY HAVE
SOME FOG DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WHERE GOOD SNOW MELT OCCURS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND WINDS
DIMINISH.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK NORTHWEST TO ZONAL TO
POSSIBLY RIDGING. SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH IS WILL
PROMOTE GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME RESIDUAL SNOW PACK OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST LIMITS READINGS A BIT. WEDNESDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SPECTACULAR AS THE THERMAL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
THE STATE. POTENTIAL IS THERE TO REACH 70 IN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR DES
MOINES PENDING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT
STILL MILD CONSIDERING THE RECENT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...06/00Z
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRINGS A WIND SHIFT
AND INCREASE TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. NAM IS VERY BULLISH WITH LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING BUT THE SHORTWAVE LACKS ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST WITH THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SECOND /AND FINAL/ SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WAS
RELEASED EARLIER TODAY...AND CALLS FOR A NEAR NORMAL RISK OF
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY JUNE. THAT OUTLOOK DOES NOT GIVE FULL
CONSIDERATION TO ICE JAMS...HOWEVER...AS ICE JAMS TEND TO BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED EVENTS. THERE HAS BEEN INTEREST IN ICE JAM POTENTIAL NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE FORECAST WARMUP.

ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS THICK ON AREA RIVERS...AND IS THUS PRIMED FOR AN
ICE JAM EVENT...TYPICALLY A FORCING ELEMENT SUCH AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS. ABSENT EITHER OF THOSE...THEN THERMAL BREAK-UP OF
THE ICE IS THE MOST LIKELY ROUTE WHICH DOES NOT NORMALLY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THE GOING FORECAST IS NOT SHOWING HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK...AND THE EXISTING SNOWPACK
IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THUS...THE
ICE JAM THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
ISSUES MAY OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HAVING SAID
THAT...SINCE MARCH IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR ICE JAMMING...WE
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING.

AS AN ASIDE...IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK...THEN FOR ICE
JAMS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY SNOWMELT...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE 40S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START
THE ICE JAM PROCESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD NOT MATTER MUCH.
ALSO...BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...WHENEVER THE DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IS 42F OR HIGHER...THEN ICE JAMS ALMOST ALWAYS OCCURRED
WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. FOR ICE JAMS DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE MIDDLE 30S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 052330
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
530 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE STATE TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH WAA
ALOFT TONIGHT ACROSS IOWA. AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MAINLY SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. THEREFORE WITH THE WAA...INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY TOWARD MORNING...STEADY TO WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED TOWARD
SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT MAINLY THIS EVENING WITH SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND TEENS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS CERTAINLY THE WARMING
TREND DURING THE PERIOD. A MAJOR FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE
LACK OF SNOW COVER THROUGH NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND MISSOURI AND INTO
SW IOWA. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD WARMING INTO IOWA WITH NO
MODIFICATION TO THE SOUTH BEFORE THE AIR ARRIVES. GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AT 925 MB TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES 20C
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH THE SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
IOWA SHOULD MELT ON BY SATURDAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A SECOND STRONGER WAVE FOLLOWING THAT WOULD
BRING MORE FORCING INTO NORTHERN IOWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
SNOW A BIT OVER THE NORTH AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO LATCH ON
TO THE SECOND IMPULSE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THOUGH A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FOLLOWING THE UPPER
SYSTEM PASSAGE AND BRING A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MAY HAVE
SOME FOG DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WHERE GOOD SNOW MELT OCCURS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND WINDS
DIMINISH.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK NORTHWEST TO ZONAL TO
POSSIBLY RIDGING. SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH IS WILL
PROMOTE GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME RESIDUAL SNOW PACK OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST LIMITS READINGS A BIT. WEDNESDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SPECTACULAR AS THE THERMAL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
THE STATE. POTENTIAL IS THERE TO REACH 70 IN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR DES
MOINES PENDING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT
STILL MILD CONSIDERING THE RECENT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...06/00Z
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRINGS A WIND SHIFT
AND INCREASE TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. NAM IS VERY BULLISH WITH LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING BUT THE SHORTWAVE LACKS ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST WITH THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SECOND /AND FINAL/ SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WAS
RELEASED EARLIER TODAY...AND CALLS FOR A NEAR NORMAL RISK OF
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY JUNE. THAT OUTLOOK DOES NOT GIVE FULL
CONSIDERATION TO ICE JAMS...HOWEVER...AS ICE JAMS TEND TO BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED EVENTS. THERE HAS BEEN INTEREST IN ICE JAM POTENTIAL NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE FORECAST WARMUP.

ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS THICK ON AREA RIVERS...AND IS THUS PRIMED FOR AN
ICE JAM EVENT...TYPICALLY A FORCING ELEMENT SUCH AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS. ABSENT EITHER OF THOSE...THEN THERMAL BREAK-UP OF
THE ICE IS THE MOST LIKELY ROUTE WHICH DOES NOT NORMALLY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THE GOING FORECAST IS NOT SHOWING HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK...AND THE EXISTING SNOWPACK
IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THUS...THE
ICE JAM THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
ISSUES MAY OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HAVING SAID
THAT...SINCE MARCH IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR ICE JAMMING...WE
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING.

AS AN ASIDE...IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK...THEN FOR ICE
JAMS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY SNOWMELT...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE 40S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START
THE ICE JAM PROCESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD NOT MATTER MUCH.
ALSO...BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...WHENEVER THE DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IS 42F OR HIGHER...THEN ICE JAMS ALMOST ALWAYS OCCURRED
WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. FOR ICE JAMS DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE MIDDLE 30S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 052330
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
530 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE STATE TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH WAA
ALOFT TONIGHT ACROSS IOWA. AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MAINLY SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. THEREFORE WITH THE WAA...INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY TOWARD MORNING...STEADY TO WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED TOWARD
SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT MAINLY THIS EVENING WITH SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND TEENS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS CERTAINLY THE WARMING
TREND DURING THE PERIOD. A MAJOR FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE
LACK OF SNOW COVER THROUGH NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND MISSOURI AND INTO
SW IOWA. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD WARMING INTO IOWA WITH NO
MODIFICATION TO THE SOUTH BEFORE THE AIR ARRIVES. GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AT 925 MB TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES 20C
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH THE SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
IOWA SHOULD MELT ON BY SATURDAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A SECOND STRONGER WAVE FOLLOWING THAT WOULD
BRING MORE FORCING INTO NORTHERN IOWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
SNOW A BIT OVER THE NORTH AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO LATCH ON
TO THE SECOND IMPULSE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THOUGH A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FOLLOWING THE UPPER
SYSTEM PASSAGE AND BRING A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MAY HAVE
SOME FOG DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WHERE GOOD SNOW MELT OCCURS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND WINDS
DIMINISH.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK NORTHWEST TO ZONAL TO
POSSIBLY RIDGING. SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH IS WILL
PROMOTE GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME RESIDUAL SNOW PACK OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST LIMITS READINGS A BIT. WEDNESDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SPECTACULAR AS THE THERMAL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
THE STATE. POTENTIAL IS THERE TO REACH 70 IN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR DES
MOINES PENDING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT
STILL MILD CONSIDERING THE RECENT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...06/00Z
ISSUED AT 530 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVES ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND BRINGS A WIND SHIFT
AND INCREASE TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. NAM IS VERY BULLISH WITH LOW
STRATUS DEVELOPING FRIDAY MORNING BUT THE SHORTWAVE LACKS ANY
SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE AND SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE EAST WITH THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING FRIDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SECOND /AND FINAL/ SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WAS
RELEASED EARLIER TODAY...AND CALLS FOR A NEAR NORMAL RISK OF
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY JUNE. THAT OUTLOOK DOES NOT GIVE FULL
CONSIDERATION TO ICE JAMS...HOWEVER...AS ICE JAMS TEND TO BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED EVENTS. THERE HAS BEEN INTEREST IN ICE JAM POTENTIAL NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE FORECAST WARMUP.

ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS THICK ON AREA RIVERS...AND IS THUS PRIMED FOR AN
ICE JAM EVENT...TYPICALLY A FORCING ELEMENT SUCH AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS. ABSENT EITHER OF THOSE...THEN THERMAL BREAK-UP OF
THE ICE IS THE MOST LIKELY ROUTE WHICH DOES NOT NORMALLY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THE GOING FORECAST IS NOT SHOWING HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK...AND THE EXISTING SNOWPACK
IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THUS...THE
ICE JAM THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
ISSUES MAY OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HAVING SAID
THAT...SINCE MARCH IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR ICE JAMMING...WE
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING.

AS AN ASIDE...IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK...THEN FOR ICE
JAMS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY SNOWMELT...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE 40S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START
THE ICE JAM PROCESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD NOT MATTER MUCH.
ALSO...BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...WHENEVER THE DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IS 42F OR HIGHER...THEN ICE JAMS ALMOST ALWAYS OCCURRED
WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. FOR ICE JAMS DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE MIDDLE 30S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 052138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE STATE TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH WAA
ALOFT TONIGHT ACROSS IOWA. AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MAINLY SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. THEREFORE WITH THE WAA...INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY TOWARD MORNING...STEADY TO WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED TOWARD
SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT MAINLY THIS EVENING WITH SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND TEENS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS CERTAINLY THE WARMING
TREND DURING THE PERIOD. A MAJOR FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE
LACK OF SNOW COVER THROUGH NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND MISSOURI AND INTO
SW IOWA. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD WARMING INTO IOWA WITH NO
MODIFICATION TO THE SOUTH BEFORE THE AIR ARRIVES. GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AT 925 MB TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES 20C
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH THE SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
IOWA SHOULD MELT ON BY SATURDAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A SECOND STRONGER WAVE FOLLOWING THAT WOULD
BRING MORE FORCING INTO NORTHERN IOWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
SNOW A BIT OVER THE NORTH AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO LATCH ON
TO THE SECOND IMPULSE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THOUGH A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FOLLOWING THE UPPER
SYSTEM PASSAGE AND BRING A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MAY HAVE
SOME FOG DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WHERE GOOD SNOW MELT OCCURS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND WINDS
DIMINISH.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK NORTHWEST TO ZONAL TO
POSSIBLY RIDGING. SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH IS WILL
PROMOTE GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME RESIDUAL SNOW PACK OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST LIMITS READINGS A BIT. WEDNESDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SPECTACULAR AS THE THERMAL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
THE STATE. POTENTIAL IS THERE TO REACH 70 IN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR DES
MOINES PENDING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT
STILL MILD CONSIDERING THE RECENT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
MID/LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT AROUND SCT-BKN100.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WARMER AIR
MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY SUGGESTING SOME LOW CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT THIS
IS GOING TO HAPPEN SO HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SCT008 DECK FOR FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SECOND /AND FINAL/ SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WAS
RELEASED EARLIER TODAY...AND CALLS FOR A NEAR NORMAL RISK OF
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY JUNE. THAT OUTLOOK DOES NOT GIVE FULL
CONSIDERATION TO ICE JAMS...HOWEVER...AS ICE JAMS TEND TO BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED EVENTS. THERE HAS BEEN INTEREST IN ICE JAM POTENTIAL NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE FORECAST WARMUP.

ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS THICK ON AREA RIVERS...AND IS THUS PRIMED FOR AN
ICE JAM EVENT...TYPICALLY A FORCING ELEMENT SUCH AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS. ABSENT EITHER OF THOSE...THEN THERMAL BREAK-UP OF
THE ICE IS THE MOST LIKELY ROUTE WHICH DOES NOT NORMALLY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THE GOING FORECAST IS NOT SHOWING HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK...AND THE EXISTING SNOWPACK
IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THUS...THE
ICE JAM THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
ISSUES MAY OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HAVING SAID
THAT...SINCE MARCH IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR ICE JAMMING...WE
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING.

AS AN ASIDE...IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK...THEN FOR ICE
JAMS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY SNOWMELT...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE 40S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START
THE ICE JAM PROCESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD NOT MATTER MUCH.
ALSO...BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...WHENEVER THE DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IS 42F OR HIGHER...THEN ICE JAMS ALMOST ALWAYS OCCURRED
WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. FOR ICE JAMS DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE MIDDLE 30S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BEERENDS
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 052138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE STATE TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH WAA
ALOFT TONIGHT ACROSS IOWA. AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MAINLY SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. THEREFORE WITH THE WAA...INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY TOWARD MORNING...STEADY TO WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED TOWARD
SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT MAINLY THIS EVENING WITH SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND TEENS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS CERTAINLY THE WARMING
TREND DURING THE PERIOD. A MAJOR FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE
LACK OF SNOW COVER THROUGH NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND MISSOURI AND INTO
SW IOWA. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD WARMING INTO IOWA WITH NO
MODIFICATION TO THE SOUTH BEFORE THE AIR ARRIVES. GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AT 925 MB TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES 20C
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH THE SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
IOWA SHOULD MELT ON BY SATURDAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A SECOND STRONGER WAVE FOLLOWING THAT WOULD
BRING MORE FORCING INTO NORTHERN IOWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
SNOW A BIT OVER THE NORTH AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO LATCH ON
TO THE SECOND IMPULSE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THOUGH A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FOLLOWING THE UPPER
SYSTEM PASSAGE AND BRING A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MAY HAVE
SOME FOG DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WHERE GOOD SNOW MELT OCCURS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND WINDS
DIMINISH.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK NORTHWEST TO ZONAL TO
POSSIBLY RIDGING. SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH IS WILL
PROMOTE GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME RESIDUAL SNOW PACK OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST LIMITS READINGS A BIT. WEDNESDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SPECTACULAR AS THE THERMAL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
THE STATE. POTENTIAL IS THERE TO REACH 70 IN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR DES
MOINES PENDING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT
STILL MILD CONSIDERING THE RECENT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
MID/LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT AROUND SCT-BKN100.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WARMER AIR
MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY SUGGESTING SOME LOW CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT THIS
IS GOING TO HAPPEN SO HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SCT008 DECK FOR FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SECOND /AND FINAL/ SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WAS
RELEASED EARLIER TODAY...AND CALLS FOR A NEAR NORMAL RISK OF
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY JUNE. THAT OUTLOOK DOES NOT GIVE FULL
CONSIDERATION TO ICE JAMS...HOWEVER...AS ICE JAMS TEND TO BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED EVENTS. THERE HAS BEEN INTEREST IN ICE JAM POTENTIAL NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE FORECAST WARMUP.

ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS THICK ON AREA RIVERS...AND IS THUS PRIMED FOR AN
ICE JAM EVENT...TYPICALLY A FORCING ELEMENT SUCH AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS. ABSENT EITHER OF THOSE...THEN THERMAL BREAK-UP OF
THE ICE IS THE MOST LIKELY ROUTE WHICH DOES NOT NORMALLY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THE GOING FORECAST IS NOT SHOWING HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK...AND THE EXISTING SNOWPACK
IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THUS...THE
ICE JAM THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
ISSUES MAY OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HAVING SAID
THAT...SINCE MARCH IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR ICE JAMMING...WE
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING.

AS AN ASIDE...IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK...THEN FOR ICE
JAMS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY SNOWMELT...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE 40S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START
THE ICE JAM PROCESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD NOT MATTER MUCH.
ALSO...BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...WHENEVER THE DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IS 42F OR HIGHER...THEN ICE JAMS ALMOST ALWAYS OCCURRED
WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. FOR ICE JAMS DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE MIDDLE 30S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BEERENDS
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 052138
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER SE IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE STATE TONIGHT. RETURN FLOW SETS UP WITH WAA
ALOFT TONIGHT ACROSS IOWA. AN WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT...RESULTING IN MAINLY SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND INCREASING WINDS AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. THEREFORE WITH THE WAA...INCREASING WINDS AND CLOUD COVER
TEMPS NOT EXPECTED TO FALL OFF MUCH OVERNIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME MORE
SOUTHERLY TOWARD MORNING...STEADY TO WARMING TEMPS EXPECTED TOWARD
SUNRISE. LOWS SHOULD BOTTOM OUT MAINLY THIS EVENING WITH SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE ZERO EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...AND TEENS ACROSS
THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS IS CERTAINLY THE WARMING
TREND DURING THE PERIOD. A MAJOR FACTOR DURING THIS PERIOD IS THE
LACK OF SNOW COVER THROUGH NEBRASKA...KANSAS AND MISSOURI AND INTO
SW IOWA. THIS WILL ALLOW GOOD WARMING INTO IOWA WITH NO
MODIFICATION TO THE SOUTH BEFORE THE AIR ARRIVES. GOOD WARM
ADVECTION AT 925 MB TONIGHT WILL HAVE THE 925 MB TEMPERATURES 20C
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING. THIS ALONG WITH THE SWITCH TO SOUTHERLY
WILL HELP TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE MID 30S TO MID 40S BOTH
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MUCH OF THE SNOW ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
IOWA SHOULD MELT ON BY SATURDAY.

SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. THE BULK OF THE KINEMATIC FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE AREA HOWEVER BOTH
THE ECMWF AND GEM HAVE A SECOND STRONGER WAVE FOLLOWING THAT WOULD
BRING MORE FORCING INTO NORTHERN IOWA. HAVE INCREASED POPS FOR
SNOW A BIT OVER THE NORTH AND HOPEFULLY WILL BE ABLE TO LATCH ON
TO THE SECOND IMPULSE WITH FUTURE FORECASTS. SUNDAY WILL BE A
BIT WARMER THOUGH A BOUNDARY WILL MOVE THROUGH FOLLOWING THE UPPER
SYSTEM PASSAGE AND BRING A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. MAY HAVE
SOME FOG DEVELOP EACH NIGHT WHERE GOOD SNOW MELT OCCURS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE STATE AND WINDS
DIMINISH.

THE BIGGEST CHANGE IN THE PATTERN ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
AS THE UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS FROM WEAK NORTHWEST TO ZONAL TO
POSSIBLY RIDGING. SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWESTERLY WHICH IS WILL
PROMOTE GOOD WARMING POTENTIAL. HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND 60S THOUGH IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME RESIDUAL SNOW PACK OVER
THE FAR NORTHEAST LIMITS READINGS A BIT. WEDNESDAY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO BE SPECTACULAR AS THE THERMAL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH
THE STATE. POTENTIAL IS THERE TO REACH 70 IN SOUTHWEST TO NEAR DES
MOINES PENDING A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN. THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER BUT
STILL MILD CONSIDERING THE RECENT COLD WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
MID/LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT AROUND SCT-BKN100.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WARMER AIR
MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY SUGGESTING SOME LOW CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT THIS
IS GOING TO HAPPEN SO HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SCT008 DECK FOR FRIDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST THU MAR 5 2015

THE SECOND /AND FINAL/ SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK OF THE SEASON WAS
RELEASED EARLIER TODAY...AND CALLS FOR A NEAR NORMAL RISK OF
FLOODING THROUGH EARLY JUNE. THAT OUTLOOK DOES NOT GIVE FULL
CONSIDERATION TO ICE JAMS...HOWEVER...AS ICE JAMS TEND TO BE HIGHLY
LOCALIZED EVENTS. THERE HAS BEEN INTEREST IN ICE JAM POTENTIAL NEXT
WEEK GIVEN THE FORECAST WARMUP.

ALTHOUGH THE ICE IS THICK ON AREA RIVERS...AND IS THUS PRIMED FOR AN
ICE JAM EVENT...TYPICALLY A FORCING ELEMENT SUCH AS MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL AND/OR SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT IS NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS. ABSENT EITHER OF THOSE...THEN THERMAL BREAK-UP OF
THE ICE IS THE MOST LIKELY ROUTE WHICH DOES NOT NORMALLY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ISSUES. THE GOING FORECAST IS NOT SHOWING HIGH
CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL LAST WEEK...AND THE EXISTING SNOWPACK
IS NOT SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO YIELD SIGNIFICANT SNOWMELT. THUS...THE
ICE JAM THREAT IS RATHER MINIMAL. ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED MINOR
ISSUES MAY OCCUR...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. HAVING SAID
THAT...SINCE MARCH IS OUR CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR ICE JAMMING...WE
WILL CONTINUE MONITORING.

AS AN ASIDE...IF THERE WAS A SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK...THEN FOR ICE
JAMS DRIVEN PRIMARILY BY SNOWMELT...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH
DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE 40S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START
THE ICE JAM PROCESS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WOULD NOT MATTER MUCH.
ALSO...BASED ON PAST EXPERIENCE...WHENEVER THE DAILY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IS 42F OR HIGHER...THEN ICE JAMS ALMOST ALWAYS OCCURRED
WITHIN 1 TO 2 DAYS. FOR ICE JAMS DRIVEN BY THE COMBINATION OF
SNOWMELT AND RUNOFF...3 TO 5 CONSECUTIVE DAYS WITH DAILY MAX
TEMPERATURES AT LEAST IN THE MIDDLE 30S WOULD BE NEEDED TO START THE
ICE JAM PROCESS.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BEERENDS
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 051755
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1155 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL BE THROUGH IOWA BY
15Z.  WEAK QG FORCING AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCED A BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.  OVERNIGHT...FLURRIES PERSISTED ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DIMINISHED AROUND
3 AM.  VERY COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE WE
STILL HAVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COVER.  WIND CHILL VALUES OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE FALLEN INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT GIVEN TO SMALL AERIAL COVERAGE AND DIMINISHING WINDS I
WILL HANDLE THE WIND CHILL ISSUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
VERSUS AN ADVISORY.

TODAY WE WILL SEE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE.  WE WILL BE IN A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH WINDS FINALLY
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY...AFTER 20Z OR SO.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS BUT ARE VERY DRY ALOFT. I AM NOT REALLY LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND WEAK
WARM ADVECTION TRYING TO NOSE IN I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS WINDS DON`T REALLY COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTH UNTIL AFTER 21Z AND THEY WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TRANSITIONAL PERIOD IS FORTHCOMING WITH GRADUAL MODERATION INTO
NEXT WEEK AS BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY END OF
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO STEADY/SLOWING RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMUP WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARD THE STATE. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WILL ENTER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF FORCING AND LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS INTO IOWA PUTTING THE BREAKS ON THE WARMUP.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. FORCING WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN IOWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FLAT-LINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT BEGIN RISING WITH AUTHORITY ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BRINGING
MILD CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS
MILD AIRMASS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK AT WHICH POINT A LARGE
DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS THE GFS BRING A
LATE SEASON SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE STATE. THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH BULK OF
FORCING AND SATURATION REMAINING EITHER IN CANADA WITH NORTHERN
STREAM OR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOUTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
MID/LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT AROUND SCT-BKN100.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WARMER AIR
MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY SUGGESTING SOME LOW CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT THIS
IS GOING TO HAPPEN SO HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SCT008 DECK FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 051755
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1155 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL BE THROUGH IOWA BY
15Z.  WEAK QG FORCING AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCED A BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.  OVERNIGHT...FLURRIES PERSISTED ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DIMINISHED AROUND
3 AM.  VERY COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE WE
STILL HAVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COVER.  WIND CHILL VALUES OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE FALLEN INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT GIVEN TO SMALL AERIAL COVERAGE AND DIMINISHING WINDS I
WILL HANDLE THE WIND CHILL ISSUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
VERSUS AN ADVISORY.

TODAY WE WILL SEE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE.  WE WILL BE IN A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH WINDS FINALLY
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY...AFTER 20Z OR SO.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS BUT ARE VERY DRY ALOFT. I AM NOT REALLY LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND WEAK
WARM ADVECTION TRYING TO NOSE IN I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS WINDS DON`T REALLY COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTH UNTIL AFTER 21Z AND THEY WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TRANSITIONAL PERIOD IS FORTHCOMING WITH GRADUAL MODERATION INTO
NEXT WEEK AS BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY END OF
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO STEADY/SLOWING RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMUP WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARD THE STATE. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WILL ENTER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF FORCING AND LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS INTO IOWA PUTTING THE BREAKS ON THE WARMUP.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. FORCING WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN IOWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FLAT-LINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT BEGIN RISING WITH AUTHORITY ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BRINGING
MILD CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS
MILD AIRMASS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK AT WHICH POINT A LARGE
DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS THE GFS BRING A
LATE SEASON SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE STATE. THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH BULK OF
FORCING AND SATURATION REMAINING EITHER IN CANADA WITH NORTHERN
STREAM OR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOUTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
MID/LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT AROUND SCT-BKN100.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WARMER AIR
MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY SUGGESTING SOME LOW CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT THIS
IS GOING TO HAPPEN SO HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SCT008 DECK FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 051755
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1155 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL BE THROUGH IOWA BY
15Z.  WEAK QG FORCING AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCED A BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.  OVERNIGHT...FLURRIES PERSISTED ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DIMINISHED AROUND
3 AM.  VERY COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE WE
STILL HAVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COVER.  WIND CHILL VALUES OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE FALLEN INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT GIVEN TO SMALL AERIAL COVERAGE AND DIMINISHING WINDS I
WILL HANDLE THE WIND CHILL ISSUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
VERSUS AN ADVISORY.

TODAY WE WILL SEE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE.  WE WILL BE IN A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH WINDS FINALLY
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY...AFTER 20Z OR SO.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS BUT ARE VERY DRY ALOFT. I AM NOT REALLY LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND WEAK
WARM ADVECTION TRYING TO NOSE IN I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS WINDS DON`T REALLY COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTH UNTIL AFTER 21Z AND THEY WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TRANSITIONAL PERIOD IS FORTHCOMING WITH GRADUAL MODERATION INTO
NEXT WEEK AS BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY END OF
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO STEADY/SLOWING RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMUP WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARD THE STATE. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WILL ENTER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF FORCING AND LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS INTO IOWA PUTTING THE BREAKS ON THE WARMUP.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. FORCING WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN IOWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FLAT-LINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT BEGIN RISING WITH AUTHORITY ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BRINGING
MILD CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS
MILD AIRMASS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK AT WHICH POINT A LARGE
DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS THE GFS BRING A
LATE SEASON SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE STATE. THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH BULK OF
FORCING AND SATURATION REMAINING EITHER IN CANADA WITH NORTHERN
STREAM OR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOUTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
MID/LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT AROUND SCT-BKN100.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WARMER AIR
MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY SUGGESTING SOME LOW CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT THIS
IS GOING TO HAPPEN SO HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SCT008 DECK FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 051755
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1155 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL BE THROUGH IOWA BY
15Z.  WEAK QG FORCING AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCED A BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.  OVERNIGHT...FLURRIES PERSISTED ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DIMINISHED AROUND
3 AM.  VERY COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE WE
STILL HAVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COVER.  WIND CHILL VALUES OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE FALLEN INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT GIVEN TO SMALL AERIAL COVERAGE AND DIMINISHING WINDS I
WILL HANDLE THE WIND CHILL ISSUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
VERSUS AN ADVISORY.

TODAY WE WILL SEE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE.  WE WILL BE IN A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH WINDS FINALLY
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY...AFTER 20Z OR SO.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS BUT ARE VERY DRY ALOFT. I AM NOT REALLY LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND WEAK
WARM ADVECTION TRYING TO NOSE IN I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS WINDS DON`T REALLY COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTH UNTIL AFTER 21Z AND THEY WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TRANSITIONAL PERIOD IS FORTHCOMING WITH GRADUAL MODERATION INTO
NEXT WEEK AS BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY END OF
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO STEADY/SLOWING RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMUP WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARD THE STATE. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WILL ENTER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF FORCING AND LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS INTO IOWA PUTTING THE BREAKS ON THE WARMUP.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. FORCING WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN IOWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FLAT-LINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT BEGIN RISING WITH AUTHORITY ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BRINGING
MILD CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS
MILD AIRMASS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK AT WHICH POINT A LARGE
DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS THE GFS BRING A
LATE SEASON SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE STATE. THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH BULK OF
FORCING AND SATURATION REMAINING EITHER IN CANADA WITH NORTHERN
STREAM OR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOUTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 1155 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
NORTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY LIGHTER WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SOME MID CLOUDS WILL MOVE THROUGH BY
MID/LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AT AROUND SCT-BKN100.
MODELS HINT AT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THE WARMER AIR
MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY SUGGESTING SOME LOW CIGS. NOT CONFIDENT THIS
IS GOING TO HAPPEN SO HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SCT008 DECK FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 051142
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
542 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL BE THROUGH IOWA BY
15Z.  WEAK QG FORCING AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCED A BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.  OVERNIGHT...FLURRIES PERSISTED ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DIMINISHED AROUND
3 AM.  VERY COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE WE
STILL HAVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COVER.  WIND CHILL VALUES OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE FALLEN INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT GIVEN TO SMALL AERIAL COVERAGE AND DIMINISHING WINDS I
WILL HANDLE THE WIND CHILL ISSUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
VERSUS AN ADVISORY.

TODAY WE WILL SEE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE.  WE WILL BE IN A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH WINDS FINALLY
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY...AFTER 20Z OR SO.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS BUT ARE VERY DRY ALOFT. I AM NOT REALLY LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND WEAK
WARM ADVECTION TRYING TO NOSE IN I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS WINDS DON`T REALLY COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTH UNTIL AFTER 21Z AND THEY WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TRANSITIONAL PERIOD IS FORTHCOMING WITH GRADUAL MODERATION INTO
NEXT WEEK AS BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY END OF
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO STEADY/SLOWING RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMUP WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARD THE STATE. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WILL ENTER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF FORCING AND LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS INTO IOWA PUTTING THE BREAKS ON THE WARMUP.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. FORCING WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN IOWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FLAT-LINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT BEGIN RISING WITH AUTHORITY ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BRINGING
MILD CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS
MILD AIRMASS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK AT WHICH POINT A LARGE
DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS THE GFS BRING A
LATE SEASON SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE STATE. THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH BULK OF
FORCING AND SATURATION REMAINING EITHER IN CANADA WITH NORTHERN
STREAM OR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOUTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...05/12Z
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
WIND WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  WITH THE WIND SHIFT...WIND SPEED WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN
10-20KTS.  SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AFT 06Z...ESPECIALLY
OUT WEST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 051142
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
542 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL BE THROUGH IOWA BY
15Z.  WEAK QG FORCING AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCED A BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.  OVERNIGHT...FLURRIES PERSISTED ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DIMINISHED AROUND
3 AM.  VERY COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE WE
STILL HAVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COVER.  WIND CHILL VALUES OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE FALLEN INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT GIVEN TO SMALL AERIAL COVERAGE AND DIMINISHING WINDS I
WILL HANDLE THE WIND CHILL ISSUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
VERSUS AN ADVISORY.

TODAY WE WILL SEE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE.  WE WILL BE IN A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH WINDS FINALLY
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY...AFTER 20Z OR SO.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS BUT ARE VERY DRY ALOFT. I AM NOT REALLY LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND WEAK
WARM ADVECTION TRYING TO NOSE IN I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS WINDS DON`T REALLY COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTH UNTIL AFTER 21Z AND THEY WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TRANSITIONAL PERIOD IS FORTHCOMING WITH GRADUAL MODERATION INTO
NEXT WEEK AS BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY END OF
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO STEADY/SLOWING RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMUP WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARD THE STATE. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WILL ENTER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF FORCING AND LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS INTO IOWA PUTTING THE BREAKS ON THE WARMUP.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. FORCING WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN IOWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FLAT-LINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT BEGIN RISING WITH AUTHORITY ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BRINGING
MILD CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS
MILD AIRMASS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK AT WHICH POINT A LARGE
DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS THE GFS BRING A
LATE SEASON SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE STATE. THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH BULK OF
FORCING AND SATURATION REMAINING EITHER IN CANADA WITH NORTHERN
STREAM OR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOUTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...05/12Z
ISSUED AT 542 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.  THE
WIND WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST THEN SOUTHWEST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT.  WITH THE WIND SHIFT...WIND SPEED WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN
10-20KTS.  SOME MID AND HIGH CLOUDS EXPECTED AFT 06Z...ESPECIALLY
OUT WEST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 050934
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL BE THROUGH IOWA BY
15Z.  WEAK QG FORCING AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCED A BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.  OVERNIGHT...FLURRIES PERSISTED ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DIMINISHED AROUND
3 AM.  VERY COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE WE
STILL HAVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COVER.  WIND CHILL VALUES OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE FALLEN INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT GIVEN TO SMALL AERIAL COVERAGE AND DIMINISHING WINDS I
WILL HANDLE THE WIND CHILL ISSUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
VERSUS AN ADVISORY.

TODAY WE WILL SEE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE.  WE WILL BE IN A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH WINDS FINALLY
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY...AFTER 20Z OR SO.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS BUT ARE VERY DRY ALOFT. I AM NOT REALLY LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND WEAK
WARM ADVECTION TRYING TO NOSE IN I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS WINDS DON`T REALLY COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTH UNTIL AFTER 21Z AND THEY WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TRANSITIONAL PERIOD IS FORTHCOMING WITH GRADUAL MODERATION INTO
NEXT WEEK AS BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY END OF
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO STEADY/SLOWING RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMUP WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARD THE STATE. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WILL ENTER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF FORCING AND LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS INTO IOWA PUTTING THE BREAKS ON THE WARMUP.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. FORCING WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN IOWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FLAT-LINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT BEGIN RISING WITH AUTHORITY ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BRINGING
MILD CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS
MILD AIRMASS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK AT WHICH POINT A LARGE
DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS THE GFS BRING A
LATE SEASON SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE STATE. THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH BULK OF
FORCING AND SATURATION REMAINING EITHER IN CANADA WITH NORTHERN
STREAM OR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOUTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
MAIN ISSUE OF WINDS SHIFTING WEST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND THEN
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 050934
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL BE THROUGH IOWA BY
15Z.  WEAK QG FORCING AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCED A BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.  OVERNIGHT...FLURRIES PERSISTED ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DIMINISHED AROUND
3 AM.  VERY COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE WE
STILL HAVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COVER.  WIND CHILL VALUES OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE FALLEN INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT GIVEN TO SMALL AERIAL COVERAGE AND DIMINISHING WINDS I
WILL HANDLE THE WIND CHILL ISSUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
VERSUS AN ADVISORY.

TODAY WE WILL SEE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE.  WE WILL BE IN A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH WINDS FINALLY
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY...AFTER 20Z OR SO.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS BUT ARE VERY DRY ALOFT. I AM NOT REALLY LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND WEAK
WARM ADVECTION TRYING TO NOSE IN I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS WINDS DON`T REALLY COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTH UNTIL AFTER 21Z AND THEY WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TRANSITIONAL PERIOD IS FORTHCOMING WITH GRADUAL MODERATION INTO
NEXT WEEK AS BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY END OF
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO STEADY/SLOWING RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMUP WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARD THE STATE. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WILL ENTER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF FORCING AND LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS INTO IOWA PUTTING THE BREAKS ON THE WARMUP.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. FORCING WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN IOWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FLAT-LINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT BEGIN RISING WITH AUTHORITY ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BRINGING
MILD CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS
MILD AIRMASS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK AT WHICH POINT A LARGE
DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS THE GFS BRING A
LATE SEASON SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE STATE. THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH BULK OF
FORCING AND SATURATION REMAINING EITHER IN CANADA WITH NORTHERN
STREAM OR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOUTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
MAIN ISSUE OF WINDS SHIFTING WEST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND THEN
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 050934
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL BE THROUGH IOWA BY
15Z.  WEAK QG FORCING AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCED A BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.  OVERNIGHT...FLURRIES PERSISTED ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DIMINISHED AROUND
3 AM.  VERY COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE WE
STILL HAVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COVER.  WIND CHILL VALUES OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE FALLEN INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT GIVEN TO SMALL AERIAL COVERAGE AND DIMINISHING WINDS I
WILL HANDLE THE WIND CHILL ISSUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
VERSUS AN ADVISORY.

TODAY WE WILL SEE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE.  WE WILL BE IN A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH WINDS FINALLY
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY...AFTER 20Z OR SO.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS BUT ARE VERY DRY ALOFT. I AM NOT REALLY LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND WEAK
WARM ADVECTION TRYING TO NOSE IN I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS WINDS DON`T REALLY COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTH UNTIL AFTER 21Z AND THEY WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TRANSITIONAL PERIOD IS FORTHCOMING WITH GRADUAL MODERATION INTO
NEXT WEEK AS BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY END OF
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO STEADY/SLOWING RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMUP WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARD THE STATE. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WILL ENTER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF FORCING AND LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS INTO IOWA PUTTING THE BREAKS ON THE WARMUP.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. FORCING WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN IOWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FLAT-LINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT BEGIN RISING WITH AUTHORITY ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BRINGING
MILD CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS
MILD AIRMASS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK AT WHICH POINT A LARGE
DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS THE GFS BRING A
LATE SEASON SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE STATE. THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH BULK OF
FORCING AND SATURATION REMAINING EITHER IN CANADA WITH NORTHERN
STREAM OR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOUTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
MAIN ISSUE OF WINDS SHIFTING WEST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND THEN
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 050934
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

A SHORTWAVE IS PUSHING ACROSS THE STATE AND WILL BE THROUGH IOWA BY
15Z.  WEAK QG FORCING AND ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRODUCED A BAND
OF LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES.  OVERNIGHT...FLURRIES PERSISTED ACROSS
THE FAR SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DIMINISHED AROUND
3 AM.  VERY COLD TEMPS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST WHERE WE
STILL HAVE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW COVER.  WIND CHILL VALUES OVER A
SMALL PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE FALLEN INTO ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT GIVEN TO SMALL AERIAL COVERAGE AND DIMINISHING WINDS I
WILL HANDLE THE WIND CHILL ISSUE WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
VERSUS AN ADVISORY.

TODAY WE WILL SEE A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH A SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE STATE.  WE WILL BE IN A WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE DAY WITH WINDS FINALLY
SWITCHING AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST LATE IN THE DAY...AFTER 20Z OR SO.
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE EARLY TO
MID MORNING HOURS BUT ARE VERY DRY ALOFT. I AM NOT REALLY LOOKING
FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ALTHOUGH AN APPROACHING
SHORT WAVE LATE IN THE PERIOD WITH A RETURN FLOW SETTING UP AND WEAK
WARM ADVECTION TRYING TO NOSE IN I WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE
SOME INCREASE IN MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPS WILL BE COOL ONCE AGAIN TODAY AS WINDS DON`T REALLY COME
AROUND TO THE SOUTH UNTIL AFTER 21Z AND THEY WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER
SIDE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...GENERALLY AROUND 10 MPH OR SO.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 AM CST THU MAR 5 2015

TRANSITIONAL PERIOD IS FORTHCOMING WITH GRADUAL MODERATION INTO
NEXT WEEK AS BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY END OF
FORECAST PERIOD. STRONG WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY AND WILL LIKELY SEE LOWS THIS EVENING BEFORE INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT LEAD TO STEADY/SLOWING RISING TEMPERATURES
OVERNIGHT. THE WARMUP WILL PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE
BUILDS TOWARD THE STATE. THE FIRST IN A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM CANADA WILL ENTER THE REGION ON FRIDAY
NIGHT. WHILE THE BULK OF FORCING AND LIFT WILL REMAIN TO THE
NORTHEAST ALONG WITH THE PRECIPITATION THREAT...A WEAK COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO PASS INTO IOWA PUTTING THE BREAKS ON THE WARMUP.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. FORCING WILL BE A BIT FARTHER SOUTHWEST WITH THIS SYSTEM
AND MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY MORNING IN NORTHERN IOWA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
FLAT-LINED THROUGH THE WEEKEND BUT BEGIN RISING WITH AUTHORITY ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS BRINGING
MILD CONTINENTAL AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL US. THIS
MILD AIRMASS WILL PERSIST INTO MIDWEEK AT WHICH POINT A LARGE
DIVERGENCE DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO AS THE GFS BRING A
LATE SEASON SURGE OF POLAR AIR INTO THE STATE. THE THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION INTO NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN MINIMAL WITH BULK OF
FORCING AND SATURATION REMAINING EITHER IN CANADA WITH NORTHERN
STREAM OR ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WITH SOUTHERN STREAM.

&&

.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
MAIN ISSUE OF WINDS SHIFTING WEST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND THEN
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 050541
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1141 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT. H85 TEMPS INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS BY
LATE TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CWA TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE BY 12Z. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS WELL. THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF AND BECOME
QUITE COLD BY MORNING. SITES WITH A DECENT SNOWPACK EXPECTED TO BE
WELL BELOW ZERO...AND OTHERS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW AROUND ZERO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND -15 TO -20 BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE NORTH/EAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VERY LIGHT THUS WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY HEADLINE AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH BE THE EXTENT OF THE
WARMING OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS H500 ANCHOR LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW
AND PERSISTENT ADIABATIC WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONFIDENCE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BEGINS TO DROP WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE
ON SOLUTIONS.

TONIGHTS SIGNIFICANT COLD AIRMASS WITH H850 TEMPS AS LOW AS -25C
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING/EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
12Z THURS WILL MOVE EAST AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE/JET ENERGY SOUTH OF
IOWA TODAY LIFTS THE EASTERN CANADA WAVE INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE WNW TRAJECTORY OF COLD AIR MASSES/SHORT WAVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...SHIFTING THE STORM TRACK NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA RATHER THAN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT
LAKES. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOMORROW...H850 TEMPS RECOVER
FROM -16C AT 12Z TO -12C BY 00Z FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL
NOT REALIZE THE ENTIRE COLUMNS WARMING...SO HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTHEAST. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO BRUSH NORTHEAST IOWA HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPS LOWER THERE AS WELL. BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION. FRIDAY AFTERNOON H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 0C
NORTHEAST TO +3C IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD NORMALLY PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 50F OVER THE SAME H850 RANGE...AND
HAVE BUMPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER MOST AREAS. THE ONLY
DETERRENT TO WARMER TEMPS MAY BE THE RESIDUAL SNOW COVER ACROSS
IOWA...KANSAS...AND MISSOURI. THIS MAY HOLD TEMPS BACK...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE BOARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS
FOR TEMPS...WITH THE EURO MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS/NAM. FOR NOW...
WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE
SOUNDINGS ARENT COMPLETELY MIXED AND DONT REALIZE THE ENTIRE
COLUMN WARMING AND THERE IS SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW TO MELT. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND BRIEFLY
CAP ANY POTENTIAL WARMING ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAST MOVING
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND WE WILL SEE ANOTHER AIRMASS WITH MILDER
READINGS SUNDAY. FURTHER WARMING WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE US_CAN BORDER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THOUGH WE CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES OSCILLATING SOUTH/RETREATING NORTH OVER IOWA THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING THICKNESS
AND HEIGHTS ALOFT AS H500 RIDGING REPLACES THE PERSISTENT H500 LOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MILD WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. THE
MODELS DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS
ATTEMPTS TO BRING THE SYSTEM EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 00Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE 00 AND 12Z EURO/GEM CONTINUE TO HOLD THE SYSTEM
BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST US FOR A FEW DAYS LONGER. GFS IS BIASED
TOO FAST AND WILL DELAY ANY PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AT THAT TIME
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVER THE REGION. OVERALL HIGHS WILL
BE QUITE MILD FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
50S TO 60S AT TIMES. THE WARMEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
MAIN ISSUE OF WINDS SHIFTING WEST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND THEN
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 050541
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1141 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT. H85 TEMPS INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS BY
LATE TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CWA TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE BY 12Z. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS WELL. THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF AND BECOME
QUITE COLD BY MORNING. SITES WITH A DECENT SNOWPACK EXPECTED TO BE
WELL BELOW ZERO...AND OTHERS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW AROUND ZERO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND -15 TO -20 BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE NORTH/EAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VERY LIGHT THUS WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY HEADLINE AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH BE THE EXTENT OF THE
WARMING OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS H500 ANCHOR LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW
AND PERSISTENT ADIABATIC WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONFIDENCE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BEGINS TO DROP WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE
ON SOLUTIONS.

TONIGHTS SIGNIFICANT COLD AIRMASS WITH H850 TEMPS AS LOW AS -25C
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING/EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
12Z THURS WILL MOVE EAST AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE/JET ENERGY SOUTH OF
IOWA TODAY LIFTS THE EASTERN CANADA WAVE INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE WNW TRAJECTORY OF COLD AIR MASSES/SHORT WAVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...SHIFTING THE STORM TRACK NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA RATHER THAN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT
LAKES. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOMORROW...H850 TEMPS RECOVER
FROM -16C AT 12Z TO -12C BY 00Z FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL
NOT REALIZE THE ENTIRE COLUMNS WARMING...SO HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTHEAST. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO BRUSH NORTHEAST IOWA HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPS LOWER THERE AS WELL. BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION. FRIDAY AFTERNOON H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 0C
NORTHEAST TO +3C IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD NORMALLY PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 50F OVER THE SAME H850 RANGE...AND
HAVE BUMPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER MOST AREAS. THE ONLY
DETERRENT TO WARMER TEMPS MAY BE THE RESIDUAL SNOW COVER ACROSS
IOWA...KANSAS...AND MISSOURI. THIS MAY HOLD TEMPS BACK...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE BOARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS
FOR TEMPS...WITH THE EURO MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS/NAM. FOR NOW...
WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE
SOUNDINGS ARENT COMPLETELY MIXED AND DONT REALIZE THE ENTIRE
COLUMN WARMING AND THERE IS SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW TO MELT. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND BRIEFLY
CAP ANY POTENTIAL WARMING ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAST MOVING
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND WE WILL SEE ANOTHER AIRMASS WITH MILDER
READINGS SUNDAY. FURTHER WARMING WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE US_CAN BORDER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THOUGH WE CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES OSCILLATING SOUTH/RETREATING NORTH OVER IOWA THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING THICKNESS
AND HEIGHTS ALOFT AS H500 RIDGING REPLACES THE PERSISTENT H500 LOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MILD WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. THE
MODELS DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS
ATTEMPTS TO BRING THE SYSTEM EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 00Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE 00 AND 12Z EURO/GEM CONTINUE TO HOLD THE SYSTEM
BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST US FOR A FEW DAYS LONGER. GFS IS BIASED
TOO FAST AND WILL DELAY ANY PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AT THAT TIME
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVER THE REGION. OVERALL HIGHS WILL
BE QUITE MILD FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
50S TO 60S AT TIMES. THE WARMEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
MAIN ISSUE OF WINDS SHIFTING WEST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND THEN
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 050541
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1141 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT. H85 TEMPS INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS BY
LATE TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CWA TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE BY 12Z. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS WELL. THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF AND BECOME
QUITE COLD BY MORNING. SITES WITH A DECENT SNOWPACK EXPECTED TO BE
WELL BELOW ZERO...AND OTHERS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW AROUND ZERO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND -15 TO -20 BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE NORTH/EAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VERY LIGHT THUS WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY HEADLINE AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH BE THE EXTENT OF THE
WARMING OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS H500 ANCHOR LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW
AND PERSISTENT ADIABATIC WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONFIDENCE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BEGINS TO DROP WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE
ON SOLUTIONS.

TONIGHTS SIGNIFICANT COLD AIRMASS WITH H850 TEMPS AS LOW AS -25C
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING/EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
12Z THURS WILL MOVE EAST AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE/JET ENERGY SOUTH OF
IOWA TODAY LIFTS THE EASTERN CANADA WAVE INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE WNW TRAJECTORY OF COLD AIR MASSES/SHORT WAVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...SHIFTING THE STORM TRACK NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA RATHER THAN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT
LAKES. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOMORROW...H850 TEMPS RECOVER
FROM -16C AT 12Z TO -12C BY 00Z FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL
NOT REALIZE THE ENTIRE COLUMNS WARMING...SO HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTHEAST. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO BRUSH NORTHEAST IOWA HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPS LOWER THERE AS WELL. BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION. FRIDAY AFTERNOON H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 0C
NORTHEAST TO +3C IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD NORMALLY PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 50F OVER THE SAME H850 RANGE...AND
HAVE BUMPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER MOST AREAS. THE ONLY
DETERRENT TO WARMER TEMPS MAY BE THE RESIDUAL SNOW COVER ACROSS
IOWA...KANSAS...AND MISSOURI. THIS MAY HOLD TEMPS BACK...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE BOARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS
FOR TEMPS...WITH THE EURO MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS/NAM. FOR NOW...
WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE
SOUNDINGS ARENT COMPLETELY MIXED AND DONT REALIZE THE ENTIRE
COLUMN WARMING AND THERE IS SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW TO MELT. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND BRIEFLY
CAP ANY POTENTIAL WARMING ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAST MOVING
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND WE WILL SEE ANOTHER AIRMASS WITH MILDER
READINGS SUNDAY. FURTHER WARMING WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE US_CAN BORDER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THOUGH WE CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES OSCILLATING SOUTH/RETREATING NORTH OVER IOWA THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING THICKNESS
AND HEIGHTS ALOFT AS H500 RIDGING REPLACES THE PERSISTENT H500 LOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MILD WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. THE
MODELS DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS
ATTEMPTS TO BRING THE SYSTEM EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 00Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE 00 AND 12Z EURO/GEM CONTINUE TO HOLD THE SYSTEM
BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST US FOR A FEW DAYS LONGER. GFS IS BIASED
TOO FAST AND WILL DELAY ANY PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AT THAT TIME
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVER THE REGION. OVERALL HIGHS WILL
BE QUITE MILD FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
50S TO 60S AT TIMES. THE WARMEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
MAIN ISSUE OF WINDS SHIFTING WEST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND THEN
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 050541
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1141 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT. H85 TEMPS INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS BY
LATE TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CWA TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE BY 12Z. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS WELL. THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF AND BECOME
QUITE COLD BY MORNING. SITES WITH A DECENT SNOWPACK EXPECTED TO BE
WELL BELOW ZERO...AND OTHERS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW AROUND ZERO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND -15 TO -20 BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE NORTH/EAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VERY LIGHT THUS WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY HEADLINE AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH BE THE EXTENT OF THE
WARMING OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS H500 ANCHOR LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW
AND PERSISTENT ADIABATIC WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONFIDENCE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BEGINS TO DROP WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE
ON SOLUTIONS.

TONIGHTS SIGNIFICANT COLD AIRMASS WITH H850 TEMPS AS LOW AS -25C
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING/EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
12Z THURS WILL MOVE EAST AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE/JET ENERGY SOUTH OF
IOWA TODAY LIFTS THE EASTERN CANADA WAVE INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE WNW TRAJECTORY OF COLD AIR MASSES/SHORT WAVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...SHIFTING THE STORM TRACK NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA RATHER THAN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT
LAKES. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOMORROW...H850 TEMPS RECOVER
FROM -16C AT 12Z TO -12C BY 00Z FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL
NOT REALIZE THE ENTIRE COLUMNS WARMING...SO HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTHEAST. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO BRUSH NORTHEAST IOWA HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPS LOWER THERE AS WELL. BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION. FRIDAY AFTERNOON H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 0C
NORTHEAST TO +3C IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD NORMALLY PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 50F OVER THE SAME H850 RANGE...AND
HAVE BUMPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER MOST AREAS. THE ONLY
DETERRENT TO WARMER TEMPS MAY BE THE RESIDUAL SNOW COVER ACROSS
IOWA...KANSAS...AND MISSOURI. THIS MAY HOLD TEMPS BACK...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE BOARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS
FOR TEMPS...WITH THE EURO MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS/NAM. FOR NOW...
WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE
SOUNDINGS ARENT COMPLETELY MIXED AND DONT REALIZE THE ENTIRE
COLUMN WARMING AND THERE IS SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW TO MELT. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND BRIEFLY
CAP ANY POTENTIAL WARMING ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAST MOVING
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND WE WILL SEE ANOTHER AIRMASS WITH MILDER
READINGS SUNDAY. FURTHER WARMING WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE US_CAN BORDER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THOUGH WE CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES OSCILLATING SOUTH/RETREATING NORTH OVER IOWA THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING THICKNESS
AND HEIGHTS ALOFT AS H500 RIDGING REPLACES THE PERSISTENT H500 LOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MILD WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. THE
MODELS DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS
ATTEMPTS TO BRING THE SYSTEM EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 00Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE 00 AND 12Z EURO/GEM CONTINUE TO HOLD THE SYSTEM
BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST US FOR A FEW DAYS LONGER. GFS IS BIASED
TOO FAST AND WILL DELAY ANY PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AT THAT TIME
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVER THE REGION. OVERALL HIGHS WILL
BE QUITE MILD FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
50S TO 60S AT TIMES. THE WARMEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD WITH THE
MAIN ISSUE OF WINDS SHIFTING WEST DURING THE DAY TOMORROW AND THEN
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 042339
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
539 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT. H85 TEMPS INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS BY
LATE TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CWA TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE BY 12Z. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS WELL. THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF AND BECOME
QUITE COLD BY MORNING. SITES WITH A DECENT SNOWPACK EXPECTED TO BE
WELL BELOW ZERO...AND OTHERS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW AROUND ZERO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND -15 TO -20 BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE NORTH/EAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VERY LIGHT THUS WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY HEADLINE AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH BE THE EXTENT OF THE
WARMING OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS H500 ANCHOR LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW
AND PERSISTENT ADIABATIC WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONFIDENCE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BEGINS TO DROP WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE
ON SOLUTIONS.

TONIGHTS SIGNIFICANT COLD AIRMASS WITH H850 TEMPS AS LOW AS -25C
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING/EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
12Z THURS WILL MOVE EAST AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE/JET ENERGY SOUTH OF
IOWA TODAY LIFTS THE EASTERN CANADA WAVE INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE WNW TRAJECTORY OF COLD AIR MASSES/SHORT WAVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...SHIFTING THE STORM TRACK NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA RATHER THAN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT
LAKES. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOMORROW...H850 TEMPS RECOVER
FROM -16C AT 12Z TO -12C BY 00Z FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL
NOT REALIZE THE ENTIRE COLUMNS WARMING...SO HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTHEAST. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO BRUSH NORTHEAST IOWA HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPS LOWER THERE AS WELL. BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION. FRIDAY AFTERNOON H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 0C
NORTHEAST TO +3C IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD NORMALLY PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 50F OVER THE SAME H850 RANGE...AND
HAVE BUMPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER MOST AREAS. THE ONLY
DETERRENT TO WARMER TEMPS MAY BE THE RESIDUAL SNOW COVER ACROSS
IOWA...KANSAS...AND MISSOURI. THIS MAY HOLD TEMPS BACK...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE BOARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS
FOR TEMPS...WITH THE EURO MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS/NAM. FOR NOW...
WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE
SOUNDINGS ARENT COMPLETELY MIXED AND DONT REALIZE THE ENTIRE
COLUMN WARMING AND THERE IS SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW TO MELT. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND BRIEFLY
CAP ANY POTENTIAL WARMING ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAST MOVING
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND WE WILL SEE ANOTHER AIRMASS WITH MILDER
READINGS SUNDAY. FURTHER WARMING WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE US_CAN BORDER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THOUGH WE CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES OSCILLATING SOUTH/RETREATING NORTH OVER IOWA THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING THICKNESS
AND HEIGHTS ALOFT AS H500 RIDGING REPLACES THE PERSISTENT H500 LOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MILD WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. THE
MODELS DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS
ATTEMPTS TO BRING THE SYSTEM EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 00Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE 00 AND 12Z EURO/GEM CONTINUE TO HOLD THE SYSTEM
BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST US FOR A FEW DAYS LONGER. GFS IS BIASED
TOO FAST AND WILL DELAY ANY PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AT THAT TIME
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVER THE REGION. OVERALL HIGHS WILL
BE QUITE MILD FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
50S TO 60S AT TIMES. THE WARMEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...05/00Z
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WEAK SNOW BURSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS WELL AS ANY MVFR
CIGS. NONE LOOK TO AFFECT ANY TAF SITES ATTM SO LEFT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
THE WEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 042339
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
539 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT. H85 TEMPS INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS BY
LATE TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CWA TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE BY 12Z. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS WELL. THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF AND BECOME
QUITE COLD BY MORNING. SITES WITH A DECENT SNOWPACK EXPECTED TO BE
WELL BELOW ZERO...AND OTHERS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW AROUND ZERO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND -15 TO -20 BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE NORTH/EAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VERY LIGHT THUS WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY HEADLINE AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH BE THE EXTENT OF THE
WARMING OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS H500 ANCHOR LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW
AND PERSISTENT ADIABATIC WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONFIDENCE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BEGINS TO DROP WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE
ON SOLUTIONS.

TONIGHTS SIGNIFICANT COLD AIRMASS WITH H850 TEMPS AS LOW AS -25C
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING/EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
12Z THURS WILL MOVE EAST AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE/JET ENERGY SOUTH OF
IOWA TODAY LIFTS THE EASTERN CANADA WAVE INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE WNW TRAJECTORY OF COLD AIR MASSES/SHORT WAVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...SHIFTING THE STORM TRACK NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA RATHER THAN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT
LAKES. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOMORROW...H850 TEMPS RECOVER
FROM -16C AT 12Z TO -12C BY 00Z FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL
NOT REALIZE THE ENTIRE COLUMNS WARMING...SO HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTHEAST. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO BRUSH NORTHEAST IOWA HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPS LOWER THERE AS WELL. BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION. FRIDAY AFTERNOON H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 0C
NORTHEAST TO +3C IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD NORMALLY PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 50F OVER THE SAME H850 RANGE...AND
HAVE BUMPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER MOST AREAS. THE ONLY
DETERRENT TO WARMER TEMPS MAY BE THE RESIDUAL SNOW COVER ACROSS
IOWA...KANSAS...AND MISSOURI. THIS MAY HOLD TEMPS BACK...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE BOARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS
FOR TEMPS...WITH THE EURO MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS/NAM. FOR NOW...
WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE
SOUNDINGS ARENT COMPLETELY MIXED AND DONT REALIZE THE ENTIRE
COLUMN WARMING AND THERE IS SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW TO MELT. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND BRIEFLY
CAP ANY POTENTIAL WARMING ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAST MOVING
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND WE WILL SEE ANOTHER AIRMASS WITH MILDER
READINGS SUNDAY. FURTHER WARMING WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE US_CAN BORDER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THOUGH WE CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES OSCILLATING SOUTH/RETREATING NORTH OVER IOWA THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING THICKNESS
AND HEIGHTS ALOFT AS H500 RIDGING REPLACES THE PERSISTENT H500 LOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MILD WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. THE
MODELS DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS
ATTEMPTS TO BRING THE SYSTEM EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 00Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE 00 AND 12Z EURO/GEM CONTINUE TO HOLD THE SYSTEM
BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST US FOR A FEW DAYS LONGER. GFS IS BIASED
TOO FAST AND WILL DELAY ANY PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AT THAT TIME
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVER THE REGION. OVERALL HIGHS WILL
BE QUITE MILD FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
50S TO 60S AT TIMES. THE WARMEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...05/00Z
ISSUED AT 538 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

WEAK SNOW BURSTS SHOULD DIMINISH WITH SUNSET AS WELL AS ANY MVFR
CIGS. NONE LOOK TO AFFECT ANY TAF SITES ATTM SO LEFT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD. WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO
THE WEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 042042
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT. H85 TEMPS INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS BY
LATE TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CWA TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE BY 12Z. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS WELL. THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF AND BECOME
QUITE COLD BY MORNING. SITES WITH A DECENT SNOWPACK EXPECTED TO BE
WELL BELOW ZERO...AND OTHERS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW AROUND ZERO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND -15 TO -20 BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE NORTH/EAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VERY LIGHT THUS WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY HEADLINE AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH BE THE EXTENT OF THE
WARMING OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS H500 ANCHOR LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW
AND PERSISTENT ADIABATIC WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONFIDENCE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BEGINS TO DROP WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE
ON SOLUTIONS.

TONIGHTS SIGNIFICANT COLD AIRMASS WITH H850 TEMPS AS LOW AS -25C
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING/EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
12Z THURS WILL MOVE EAST AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE/JET ENERGY SOUTH OF
IOWA TODAY LIFTS THE EASTERN CANADA WAVE INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE WNW TRAJECTORY OF COLD AIR MASSES/SHORT WAVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...SHIFTING THE STORM TRACK NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA RATHER THAN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT
LAKES. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOMORROW...H850 TEMPS RECOVER
FROM -16C AT 12Z TO -12C BY 00Z FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL
NOT REALIZE THE ENTIRE COLUMNS WARMING...SO HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTHEAST. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO BRUSH NORTHEAST IOWA HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPS LOWER THERE AS WELL. BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION. FRIDAY AFTERNOON H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 0C
NORTHEAST TO +3C IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD NORMALLY PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 50F OVER THE SAME H850 RANGE...AND
HAVE BUMPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER MOST AREAS. THE ONLY
DETERRENT TO WARMER TEMPS MAY BE THE RESIDUAL SNOW COVER ACROSS
IOWA...KANSAS...AND MISSOURI. THIS MAY HOLD TEMPS BACK...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE BOARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS
FOR TEMPS...WITH THE EURO MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS/NAM. FOR NOW...
WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE
SOUNDINGS ARENT COMPLETELY MIXED AND DONT REALIZE THE ENTIRE
COLUMN WARMING AND THERE IS SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW TO MELT. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND BRIEFLY
CAP ANY POTENTIAL WARMING ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAST MOVING
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND WE WILL SEE ANOTHER AIRMASS WITH MILDER
READINGS SUNDAY. FURTHER WARMING WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE US_CAN BORDER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THOUGH WE CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES OSCILLATING SOUTH/RETREATING NORTH OVER IOWA THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING THICKNESS
AND HEIGHTS ALOFT AS H500 RIDGING REPLACES THE PERSISTENT H500 LOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MILD WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. THE
MODELS DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS
ATTEMPTS TO BRING THE SYSTEM EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 00Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE 00 AND 12Z EURO/GEM CONTINUE TO HOLD THE SYSTEM
BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST US FOR A FEW DAYS LONGER. GFS IS BIASED
TOO FAST AND WILL DELAY ANY PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AT THAT TIME
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVER THE REGION. OVERALL HIGHS WILL
BE QUITE MILD FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
50S TO 60S AT TIMES. THE WARMEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT AND GUSTY
WINDS. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT HAVE REFRAINED
FROM MENTIONING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE IN THE SCT-BKN025-035 RANGE. OTHERWISE CLEAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH DECREASING
WINDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 042042
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SECONDARY COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE CWA WITH ANOTHER SURGE OF
ARCTIC AIR BEHIND IT. H85 TEMPS INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO CELSIUS BY
LATE TONIGHT. ARCTIC HIGH BUILDING INTO THE CWA TO BE CENTERED OVER
THE STATE BY 12Z. SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR THIS EVENING...WITH WINDS
DIMINISHING AS WELL. THEREFORE EXPECT TEMPS TO DROP OFF AND BECOME
QUITE COLD BY MORNING. SITES WITH A DECENT SNOWPACK EXPECTED TO BE
WELL BELOW ZERO...AND OTHERS WITH LITTLE OR NO SNOW AROUND ZERO OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. WIND CHILLS WILL FALL TO AROUND -15 TO -20 BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE NORTH/EAST...BUT WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE VERY LIGHT THUS WILL REFRAIN FROM ISSUING ANY HEADLINE AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 242 PM CST WED MAR 4 2015

MAIN CHALLENGES THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH BE THE EXTENT OF THE
WARMING OVER THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS AS H500 ANCHOR LOW OVER EASTERN
CANADA BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN OF ZONAL FLOW
AND PERSISTENT ADIABATIC WARMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. CONFIDENCE
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD BEGINS TO DROP WHEN THE MODELS DIVERGE
ON SOLUTIONS.

TONIGHTS SIGNIFICANT COLD AIRMASS WITH H850 TEMPS AS LOW AS -25C
OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS THIS MORNING/EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
12Z THURS WILL MOVE EAST AS THE STRONG SHORTWAVE/JET ENERGY SOUTH OF
IOWA TODAY LIFTS THE EASTERN CANADA WAVE INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR A MORE WNW TRAJECTORY OF COLD AIR MASSES/SHORT WAVES
ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA...SHIFTING THE STORM TRACK NORTH AND EAST OF
THE AREA RATHER THAN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS/GREAT
LAKES. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TOMORROW...H850 TEMPS RECOVER
FROM -16C AT 12Z TO -12C BY 00Z FRIDAY. SOUTHEAST SFC FLOW WILL
NOT REALIZE THE ENTIRE COLUMNS WARMING...SO HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH
THE TEENS TO UPPER 20S...WITH THE COOLEST READINGS NORTHEAST. SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL ALSO BRUSH NORTHEAST IOWA HELPING TO KEEP
TEMPS LOWER THERE AS WELL. BY THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY STRONGER
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN WITH ANOTHER PUSH OF WARM AIR
ADVECTION. FRIDAY AFTERNOON H850 TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 0C
NORTHEAST TO +3C IN THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD NORMALLY PRODUCE
HIGHS IN THE MID 30S TO AROUND 50F OVER THE SAME H850 RANGE...AND
HAVE BUMPED HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER MOST AREAS. THE ONLY
DETERRENT TO WARMER TEMPS MAY BE THE RESIDUAL SNOW COVER ACROSS
IOWA...KANSAS...AND MISSOURI. THIS MAY HOLD TEMPS BACK...ESPECIALLY
NORTHEAST. MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL OVER THE BOARD THE NEXT FEW DAYS
FOR TEMPS...WITH THE EURO MUCH WARMER THAN THE GFS/NAM. FOR NOW...
WILL USE A BLEND FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE EXTENDED GIVEN THE
SOUNDINGS ARENT COMPLETELY MIXED AND DONT REALIZE THE ENTIRE
COLUMN WARMING AND THERE IS SOME ADDITIONAL SNOW TO MELT. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST AND BRIEFLY
CAP ANY POTENTIAL WARMING ON SATURDAY. HOWEVER...THE FAST MOVING
FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE AND WE WILL SEE ANOTHER AIRMASS WITH MILDER
READINGS SUNDAY. FURTHER WARMING WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY
WITH YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKING ALONG THE US_CAN BORDER
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THOUGH WE CONTINUE TO SEE WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES OSCILLATING SOUTH/RETREATING NORTH OVER IOWA THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING THICKNESS
AND HEIGHTS ALOFT AS H500 RIDGING REPLACES THE PERSISTENT H500 LOW
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS OF THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS. THUS...WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MILD WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL FOR A CHANGE. THE
MODELS DIVERGE AFTER WEDNESDAY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE GFS
ATTEMPTS TO BRING THE SYSTEM EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 00Z
THURSDAY WHILE THE 00 AND 12Z EURO/GEM CONTINUE TO HOLD THE SYSTEM
BACK OVER THE SOUTHWEST US FOR A FEW DAYS LONGER. GFS IS BIASED
TOO FAST AND WILL DELAY ANY PRECIP IN THE EXTENDED AT THAT TIME
AND KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER OVER THE REGION. OVERALL HIGHS WILL
BE QUITE MILD FROM MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH READINGS IN THE
50S TO 60S AT TIMES. THE WARMEST DAYS APPEAR TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT AND GUSTY
WINDS. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT HAVE REFRAINED
FROM MENTIONING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE IN THE SCT-BKN025-035 RANGE. OTHERWISE CLEAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH DECREASING
WINDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 041750
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY...AS SECONDARY COLD
FRONT TAKING ITS TIME AND IS JUST NOW PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS THAT MOVES THROUGH SITES WILL
START TO STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL WITH TEMPERATURES. ALSO STILL
ANTICIPATING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES
IF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER PANS OUT. THEREFORE HAVE PUSHED THOSE
CHANCES MORE TOWARD MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH CAA CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT ONGOING SNOW IN
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD NEAR 12Z WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES DROP NEAR/BLOW 20 BELOW ZERO
AS TEMPERATURES DROP AND WINDS REMAIN STRONGER IN THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING WILL BE VERY WEAK...THOUGH WITH CAA
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH SATURATION IN DGZ TO WARRANT FLURRY
MENTION...ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL DAKOTAS
ATTM. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...THOUGH MAY BE TOO COLD
WITH MIXING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL BY THE END
OF DAY 7. DESPITE THE CONTINUANCE OF THE UPPER FLOW THAT HAS BEEN
PREDOMINANT THROUGH FEBRUARY...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL BE
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH IOWA SEEING ONLY GLANCING BLOWS OF
COOLER AIR AFTER THE CURRENT POLAR AIRMASS EXITS.

LOOKING AT TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF SURFACE RIDGE WITH
ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE. ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW ZERO
READINGS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 20
BELOW LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE BREACHING INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. HAVE HELD OFF ON
HEADLINE ISSUANCE AS IT IS MARGINAL AND LET THE DAYSHIFT LOOK TO
SEE IF THE VALUES CHANGE MUCH.

THEREAFTER...WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LIKELY TO SEE
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR COOLING INTO
SATURDAY BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY BUT READINGS WILL REBOUND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
TRANSPORTING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
50S SEEM LIKELY BY TUESDAY FOR ALL OF THE CWA WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT AND GUSTY
WINDS. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT HAVE REFRAINED
FROM MENTIONING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE IN THE SCT-BKN025-035 RANGE. OTHERWISE CLEAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH DECREASING
WINDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 041750
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY...AS SECONDARY COLD
FRONT TAKING ITS TIME AND IS JUST NOW PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS THAT MOVES THROUGH SITES WILL
START TO STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL WITH TEMPERATURES. ALSO STILL
ANTICIPATING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES
IF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER PANS OUT. THEREFORE HAVE PUSHED THOSE
CHANCES MORE TOWARD MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH CAA CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT ONGOING SNOW IN
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD NEAR 12Z WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES DROP NEAR/BLOW 20 BELOW ZERO
AS TEMPERATURES DROP AND WINDS REMAIN STRONGER IN THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING WILL BE VERY WEAK...THOUGH WITH CAA
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH SATURATION IN DGZ TO WARRANT FLURRY
MENTION...ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL DAKOTAS
ATTM. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...THOUGH MAY BE TOO COLD
WITH MIXING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL BY THE END
OF DAY 7. DESPITE THE CONTINUANCE OF THE UPPER FLOW THAT HAS BEEN
PREDOMINANT THROUGH FEBRUARY...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL BE
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH IOWA SEEING ONLY GLANCING BLOWS OF
COOLER AIR AFTER THE CURRENT POLAR AIRMASS EXITS.

LOOKING AT TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF SURFACE RIDGE WITH
ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE. ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW ZERO
READINGS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 20
BELOW LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE BREACHING INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. HAVE HELD OFF ON
HEADLINE ISSUANCE AS IT IS MARGINAL AND LET THE DAYSHIFT LOOK TO
SEE IF THE VALUES CHANGE MUCH.

THEREAFTER...WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LIKELY TO SEE
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR COOLING INTO
SATURDAY BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY BUT READINGS WILL REBOUND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
TRANSPORTING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
50S SEEM LIKELY BY TUESDAY FOR ALL OF THE CWA WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT AND GUSTY
WINDS. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT HAVE REFRAINED
FROM MENTIONING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE IN THE SCT-BKN025-035 RANGE. OTHERWISE CLEAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH DECREASING
WINDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 041750
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY...AS SECONDARY COLD
FRONT TAKING ITS TIME AND IS JUST NOW PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS THAT MOVES THROUGH SITES WILL
START TO STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL WITH TEMPERATURES. ALSO STILL
ANTICIPATING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES
IF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER PANS OUT. THEREFORE HAVE PUSHED THOSE
CHANCES MORE TOWARD MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH CAA CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT ONGOING SNOW IN
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD NEAR 12Z WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES DROP NEAR/BLOW 20 BELOW ZERO
AS TEMPERATURES DROP AND WINDS REMAIN STRONGER IN THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING WILL BE VERY WEAK...THOUGH WITH CAA
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH SATURATION IN DGZ TO WARRANT FLURRY
MENTION...ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL DAKOTAS
ATTM. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...THOUGH MAY BE TOO COLD
WITH MIXING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL BY THE END
OF DAY 7. DESPITE THE CONTINUANCE OF THE UPPER FLOW THAT HAS BEEN
PREDOMINANT THROUGH FEBRUARY...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL BE
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH IOWA SEEING ONLY GLANCING BLOWS OF
COOLER AIR AFTER THE CURRENT POLAR AIRMASS EXITS.

LOOKING AT TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF SURFACE RIDGE WITH
ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE. ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW ZERO
READINGS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 20
BELOW LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE BREACHING INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. HAVE HELD OFF ON
HEADLINE ISSUANCE AS IT IS MARGINAL AND LET THE DAYSHIFT LOOK TO
SEE IF THE VALUES CHANGE MUCH.

THEREAFTER...WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LIKELY TO SEE
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR COOLING INTO
SATURDAY BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY BUT READINGS WILL REBOUND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
TRANSPORTING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
50S SEEM LIKELY BY TUESDAY FOR ALL OF THE CWA WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT AND GUSTY
WINDS. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT HAVE REFRAINED
FROM MENTIONING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE IN THE SCT-BKN025-035 RANGE. OTHERWISE CLEAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH DECREASING
WINDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 041750
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1150 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HAVE UPDATED TO INCREASE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY...AS SECONDARY COLD
FRONT TAKING ITS TIME AND IS JUST NOW PUSHING INTO THE
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. AS THAT MOVES THROUGH SITES WILL
START TO STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL WITH TEMPERATURES. ALSO STILL
ANTICIPATING INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND CHANCE FOR SOME FLURRIES
IF THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER PANS OUT. THEREFORE HAVE PUSHED THOSE
CHANCES MORE TOWARD MID/LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING AS
THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH CAA CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT ONGOING SNOW IN
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD NEAR 12Z WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES DROP NEAR/BLOW 20 BELOW ZERO
AS TEMPERATURES DROP AND WINDS REMAIN STRONGER IN THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING WILL BE VERY WEAK...THOUGH WITH CAA
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH SATURATION IN DGZ TO WARRANT FLURRY
MENTION...ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL DAKOTAS
ATTM. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...THOUGH MAY BE TOO COLD
WITH MIXING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL BY THE END
OF DAY 7. DESPITE THE CONTINUANCE OF THE UPPER FLOW THAT HAS BEEN
PREDOMINANT THROUGH FEBRUARY...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL BE
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH IOWA SEEING ONLY GLANCING BLOWS OF
COOLER AIR AFTER THE CURRENT POLAR AIRMASS EXITS.

LOOKING AT TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF SURFACE RIDGE WITH
ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE. ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW ZERO
READINGS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 20
BELOW LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE BREACHING INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. HAVE HELD OFF ON
HEADLINE ISSUANCE AS IT IS MARGINAL AND LET THE DAYSHIFT LOOK TO
SEE IF THE VALUES CHANGE MUCH.

THEREAFTER...WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LIKELY TO SEE
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR COOLING INTO
SATURDAY BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY BUT READINGS WILL REBOUND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
TRANSPORTING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
50S SEEM LIKELY BY TUESDAY FOR ALL OF THE CWA WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 1151 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

SECONDARY COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING...EXPECT SOME CLOUDS ALONG THE FRONT AND GUSTY
WINDS. MAY SEE SOME FLURRIES DEVELOP AS WELL...BUT HAVE REFRAINED
FROM MENTIONING IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME. CLOUDS WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE IN THE SCT-BKN025-035 RANGE. OTHERWISE CLEAR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH DECREASING
WINDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 041126
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
526 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH CAA CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT ONGOING SNOW IN
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD NEAR 12Z WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES DROP NEAR/BLOW 20 BELOW ZERO
AS TEMPERATURES DROP AND WINDS REMAIN STRONGER IN THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING WILL BE VERY WEAK...THOUGH WITH CAA
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH SATURATION IN DGZ TO WARRANT FLURRY
MENTION...ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL DAKOTAS
ATTM. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...THOUGH MAY BE TOO COLD
WITH MIXING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL BY THE END
OF DAY 7. DESPITE THE CONTINUANCE OF THE UPPER FLOW THAT HAS BEEN
PREDOMINANT THROUGH FEBRUARY...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL BE
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH IOWA SEEING ONLY GLANCING BLOWS OF
COOLER AIR AFTER THE CURRENT POLAR AIRMASS EXITS.

LOOKING AT TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF SURFACE RIDGE WITH
ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE. ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW ZERO
READINGS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 20
BELOW LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE BREACHING INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. HAVE HELD OFF ON
HEADLINE ISSUANCE AS IT IS MARGINAL AND LET THE DAYSHIFT LOOK TO
SEE IF THE VALUES CHANGE MUCH.

THEREAFTER...WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LIKELY TO SEE
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR COOLING INTO
SATURDAY BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY BUT READINGS WILL REBOUND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
TRANSPORTING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
50S SEEM LIKELY BY TUESDAY FOR ALL OF THE CWA WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...04/12Z
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS THROUGH 00Z. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 041126
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
526 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH CAA CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT ONGOING SNOW IN
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD NEAR 12Z WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES DROP NEAR/BLOW 20 BELOW ZERO
AS TEMPERATURES DROP AND WINDS REMAIN STRONGER IN THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING WILL BE VERY WEAK...THOUGH WITH CAA
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH SATURATION IN DGZ TO WARRANT FLURRY
MENTION...ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL DAKOTAS
ATTM. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...THOUGH MAY BE TOO COLD
WITH MIXING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL BY THE END
OF DAY 7. DESPITE THE CONTINUANCE OF THE UPPER FLOW THAT HAS BEEN
PREDOMINANT THROUGH FEBRUARY...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL BE
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH IOWA SEEING ONLY GLANCING BLOWS OF
COOLER AIR AFTER THE CURRENT POLAR AIRMASS EXITS.

LOOKING AT TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF SURFACE RIDGE WITH
ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE. ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW ZERO
READINGS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 20
BELOW LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE BREACHING INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. HAVE HELD OFF ON
HEADLINE ISSUANCE AS IT IS MARGINAL AND LET THE DAYSHIFT LOOK TO
SEE IF THE VALUES CHANGE MUCH.

THEREAFTER...WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LIKELY TO SEE
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR COOLING INTO
SATURDAY BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY BUT READINGS WILL REBOUND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
TRANSPORTING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
50S SEEM LIKELY BY TUESDAY FOR ALL OF THE CWA WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...04/12Z
ISSUED AT 517 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST...WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS THROUGH 00Z. WINDS
WILL DECREASE AFTER 00Z THROUGH REMAINDER OF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 040938
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH CAA CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT ONGOING SNOW IN
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD NEAR 12Z WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES DROP NEAR/BLOW 20 BELOW ZERO
AS TEMPERATURES DROP AND WINDS REMAIN STRONGER IN THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING WILL BE VERY WEAK...THOUGH WITH CAA
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH SATURATION IN DGZ TO WARRANT FLURRY
MENTION...ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL DAKOTAS
ATTM. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...THOUGH MAY BE TOO COLD
WITH MIXING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL BY THE END
OF DAY 7. DESPITE THE CONTINUANCE OF THE UPPER FLOW THAT HAS BEEN
PREDOMINANT THROUGH FEBRUARY...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL BE
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH IOWA SEEING ONLY GLANCING BLOWS OF
COOLER AIR AFTER THE CURRENT POLAR AIRMASS EXITS.

LOOKING AT TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF SURFACE RIDGE WITH
ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE. ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW ZERO
READINGS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 20
BELOW LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE BREACHING INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. HAVE HELD OFF ON
HEADLINE ISSUANCE AS IT IS MARGINAL AND LET THE DAYSHIFT LOOK TO
SEE IF THE VALUES CHANGE MUCH.

THEREAFTER...WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LIKELY TO SEE
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR COOLING INTO
SATURDAY BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY BUT READINGS WILL REBOUND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
TRANSPORTING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
50S SEEM LIKELY BY TUESDAY FOR ALL OF THE CWA WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR STRATUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MIXING DEVELOPING. WINDS DECOUPLE BY 00Z THURSDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 040938
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO IOWA THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY...WITH CAA CONTINUING ACROSS THE AREA. LIGHT ONGOING SNOW IN
FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH AND DIMINISH
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. ACROSS THE FAR NORTHEAST MAY SEE A BRIEF
PERIOD NEAR 12Z WHERE WIND CHILL VALUES DROP NEAR/BLOW 20 BELOW ZERO
AS TEMPERATURES DROP AND WINDS REMAIN STRONGER IN THAT AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE BRIEF AS TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY AND
WILL HOLD OFF ON WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
PUSH SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE ADDED FLURRIES TO THE FORECAST
IN THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING WILL BE VERY WEAK...THOUGH WITH CAA
SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENOUGH SATURATION IN DGZ TO WARRANT FLURRY
MENTION...ESPECIALLY WITH ONGOING LIGHT SNOW IN CENTRAL DAKOTAS
ATTM. HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES NEAR GOING...THOUGH MAY BE TOO COLD
WITH MIXING...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TO KEEP
TEMPERATURES COOLER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST WED MAR 4 2015

BROAD NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD WITH SOME TRANSITION TOWARD MORE ZONAL BY THE END
OF DAY 7. DESPITE THE CONTINUANCE OF THE UPPER FLOW THAT HAS BEEN
PREDOMINANT THROUGH FEBRUARY...THE PRIMARY STORM TRACK WILL BE
FARTHER NORTH AND EAST WITH IOWA SEEING ONLY GLANCING BLOWS OF
COOLER AIR AFTER THE CURRENT POLAR AIRMASS EXITS.

LOOKING AT TONIGHT...WILL SEE THE APPROACH OF SURFACE RIDGE WITH
ARCTIC AIRMASS ACROSS THE STATE. ONE MORE NIGHT OF BELOW ZERO
READINGS IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF THE AREA UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND
WEAKENING WINDS. WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP TO AROUND 20
BELOW LATE TONIGHT AND WILL BE BREACHING INTO ADVISORY CRITERIA
FOR A BRIEF PERIOD AROUND DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. HAVE HELD OFF ON
HEADLINE ISSUANCE AS IT IS MARGINAL AND LET THE DAYSHIFT LOOK TO
SEE IF THE VALUES CHANGE MUCH.

THEREAFTER...WARM ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER INTO THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THERMAL RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE PLAINS. LIKELY TO SEE
NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE ON THURSDAY NIGHT WITH INCREASING
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR COOLING INTO
SATURDAY BEHIND A WEAK BOUNDARY BUT READINGS WILL REBOUND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS
TRANSPORTING MUCH WARMER AIR INTO THE MIDWEST. HIGHS WELL INTO THE
50S SEEM LIKELY BY TUESDAY FOR ALL OF THE CWA WITH SOME 60S
POSSIBLE. THERE WILL BE LITTLE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE
DURATION OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR STRATUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MIXING DEVELOPING. WINDS DECOUPLE BY 00Z THURSDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 040542
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS IOWA INTO TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER
EFFECTS WILL BE REMOVED FROM IOWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NOTHING
MORE THAN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE EJECTING INTO THE FLOW AND MO VALLEY. OTHERWISE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPS. INITIAL PRESSURE
TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT IS ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND
TRAILING TRUE COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING NW SECTIONS AT 21Z.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 30KTS OR MORE NORTH INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
LEADING TO CANCELLATION OF THE ADVISORY. DOT PLOW AND HIGHWAY CAMS
ARE SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY BLOWING SNOW OR RESTRICTIONS SO MENTION
HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. SOME WEAK BANDED SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS HAVE DEVELOPED UPSTREAM INTO SD AND MN...BUT THE
PHASING OF SHALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WITH
SUFFICIENTLY COLD TEMPS /-12C OR LESS/ IN THE CONVECTIVE AREA TO
GENERATE SHOWERS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE OCCURRING THIS FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A FEW COLD DAYS BEFORE WARMING TOWARD THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS. COLD AIR TO FILTER INTO
THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AS AN AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH THE CAA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. H85 TEMPS ALOFT IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. THEREFORE EXPECT A
CHILLY NIGHT WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH SNOW COVER FALLING BELOW ZERO AGAIN. THURSDAY
CONTINUES TO BE COLDER...BUT WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT AND WESTERLY
FLOW MAY SEE A SMALL WARM UP COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. WARMING TREND
THEN STARTS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SETS UP AND H85 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR FREEZING. JET STREAM LIFTS
FURTHER NORTH TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THERMAL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE CWA. EC/GFS BOTH WARM H85 TEMPS INTO THE +5C TO
+10C RANGE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SITES TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 40S AND 50S LOOK QUITE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME
SOUTHERN SITES EVEN PUSHING TOWARD 60.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR STRATUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MIXING DEVELOPING. WINDS DECOUPLE BY 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 040542
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS IOWA INTO TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER
EFFECTS WILL BE REMOVED FROM IOWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NOTHING
MORE THAN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE EJECTING INTO THE FLOW AND MO VALLEY. OTHERWISE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPS. INITIAL PRESSURE
TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT IS ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND
TRAILING TRUE COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING NW SECTIONS AT 21Z.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 30KTS OR MORE NORTH INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
LEADING TO CANCELLATION OF THE ADVISORY. DOT PLOW AND HIGHWAY CAMS
ARE SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY BLOWING SNOW OR RESTRICTIONS SO MENTION
HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. SOME WEAK BANDED SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS HAVE DEVELOPED UPSTREAM INTO SD AND MN...BUT THE
PHASING OF SHALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WITH
SUFFICIENTLY COLD TEMPS /-12C OR LESS/ IN THE CONVECTIVE AREA TO
GENERATE SHOWERS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE OCCURRING THIS FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A FEW COLD DAYS BEFORE WARMING TOWARD THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS. COLD AIR TO FILTER INTO
THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AS AN AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH THE CAA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. H85 TEMPS ALOFT IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. THEREFORE EXPECT A
CHILLY NIGHT WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH SNOW COVER FALLING BELOW ZERO AGAIN. THURSDAY
CONTINUES TO BE COLDER...BUT WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT AND WESTERLY
FLOW MAY SEE A SMALL WARM UP COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. WARMING TREND
THEN STARTS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SETS UP AND H85 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR FREEZING. JET STREAM LIFTS
FURTHER NORTH TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THERMAL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE CWA. EC/GFS BOTH WARM H85 TEMPS INTO THE +5C TO
+10C RANGE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SITES TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 40S AND 50S LOOK QUITE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME
SOUTHERN SITES EVEN PUSHING TOWARD 60.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR STRATUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MIXING DEVELOPING. WINDS DECOUPLE BY 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 040542
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS IOWA INTO TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER
EFFECTS WILL BE REMOVED FROM IOWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NOTHING
MORE THAN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE EJECTING INTO THE FLOW AND MO VALLEY. OTHERWISE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPS. INITIAL PRESSURE
TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT IS ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND
TRAILING TRUE COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING NW SECTIONS AT 21Z.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 30KTS OR MORE NORTH INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
LEADING TO CANCELLATION OF THE ADVISORY. DOT PLOW AND HIGHWAY CAMS
ARE SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY BLOWING SNOW OR RESTRICTIONS SO MENTION
HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. SOME WEAK BANDED SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS HAVE DEVELOPED UPSTREAM INTO SD AND MN...BUT THE
PHASING OF SHALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WITH
SUFFICIENTLY COLD TEMPS /-12C OR LESS/ IN THE CONVECTIVE AREA TO
GENERATE SHOWERS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE OCCURRING THIS FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A FEW COLD DAYS BEFORE WARMING TOWARD THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS. COLD AIR TO FILTER INTO
THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AS AN AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH THE CAA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. H85 TEMPS ALOFT IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. THEREFORE EXPECT A
CHILLY NIGHT WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH SNOW COVER FALLING BELOW ZERO AGAIN. THURSDAY
CONTINUES TO BE COLDER...BUT WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT AND WESTERLY
FLOW MAY SEE A SMALL WARM UP COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. WARMING TREND
THEN STARTS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SETS UP AND H85 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR FREEZING. JET STREAM LIFTS
FURTHER NORTH TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THERMAL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE CWA. EC/GFS BOTH WARM H85 TEMPS INTO THE +5C TO
+10C RANGE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SITES TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 40S AND 50S LOOK QUITE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME
SOUTHERN SITES EVEN PUSHING TOWARD 60.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR STRATUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MIXING DEVELOPING. WINDS DECOUPLE BY 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 040542
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1142 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THE JET STREAM WILL REMAIN ACTIVE ACROSS IOWA INTO TONIGHT...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY...BUT ANY SENSIBLE WEATHER
EFFECTS WILL BE REMOVED FROM IOWA TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NOTHING
MORE THAN PERIODS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY BE ENHANCED SOMEWHAT BY LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH ROCKIES
SHORT WAVE EJECTING INTO THE FLOW AND MO VALLEY. OTHERWISE THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE A RETURN TO COLDER TEMPS. INITIAL PRESSURE
TROUGH AND WIND SHIFT IS ALREADY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...AND
TRAILING TRUE COLD FRONT WAS JUST ENTERING NW SECTIONS AT 21Z.
WINDS WILL GUST TO 30KTS OR MORE NORTH INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW ISSUES ARE ANTICIPATED
LEADING TO CANCELLATION OF THE ADVISORY. DOT PLOW AND HIGHWAY CAMS
ARE SHOWING LITTLE IF ANY BLOWING SNOW OR RESTRICTIONS SO MENTION
HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST. SOME WEAK BANDED SNOW
SHOWERS/SQUALLS HAVE DEVELOPED UPSTREAM INTO SD AND MN...BUT THE
PHASING OF SHALLOW STEEP LAPSE RATES AND INSTABILITY WITH
SUFFICIENTLY COLD TEMPS /-12C OR LESS/ IN THE CONVECTIVE AREA TO
GENERATE SHOWERS DOES NOT LOOK TO BE OCCURRING THIS FAR SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

A FEW COLD DAYS BEFORE WARMING TOWARD THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH OVERALL QUIET CONDITIONS. COLD AIR TO FILTER INTO
THE STATE WEDNESDAY WITH CLEARING SKIES AS AN AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. SHOULD SEE BREEZY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY WITH THE CAA AND
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT. H85 TEMPS ALOFT IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20
BELOW ZERO CELSIUS. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY...AND CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. THEREFORE EXPECT A
CHILLY NIGHT WELL BELOW AVERAGE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH OF
THE AREA WITH SNOW COVER FALLING BELOW ZERO AGAIN. THURSDAY
CONTINUES TO BE COLDER...BUT WITH SOME WARMING ALOFT AND WESTERLY
FLOW MAY SEE A SMALL WARM UP COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. WARMING TREND
THEN STARTS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND...AS NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW SETS UP AND H85 TEMPS WARM TO NEAR FREEZING. JET STREAM LIFTS
FURTHER NORTH TOWARD EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THERMAL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE CWA. EC/GFS BOTH WARM H85 TEMPS INTO THE +5C TO
+10C RANGE FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SITES TO WARM WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...WITH DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. 40S AND 50S LOOK QUITE POSSIBLE...WITH SOME
SOUTHERN SITES EVEN PUSHING TOWARD 60.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF MVFR STRATUS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE
MIXING DEVELOPING. WINDS DECOUPLE BY 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





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