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000
FXUS63 KDMX 302037
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS
OCCURS. THE LOSS OF MIXING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS GRASS FIRES. THE
MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST HOWEVER...CURED FUELS AND LOW
HUMIDITY EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE MILD...WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE THAN
TODAY...BUT MUCH LESS WIND. SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE
STATE ALOFT IN NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
MIXING EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER WITH TEMPS
THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUS FORECASTED. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WARMING KICKS IN IN
EARNEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AROUND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL PUSH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND CREATE WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS AND WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS OFF BUFKIT.
THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME SITES APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE
BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN THE WARMING FLOW AND DEEPER
MIXING.

A COLD FRONT AND SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THETA-E RIDGING INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN
IOWA. EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA
OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE TIME OF DAY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST OR IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOME GIVEN IT IS STILL
EARLY APRIL. HOWEVER LLJ REMAINS STRONG AND ORIENTED DIRECTLY INTO
CENTRAL IOWA...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
COMPLETELY WITH SUNSET. PUSH OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER AND WEAK ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
MAY COME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US. GFS/EC DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DIGGING AND THE TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 302037
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN MINNESOTA
AND TOWARD THE LOWER END OF LAKE MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS THE STATE WILL WEAKEN FROM WEST TO EAST AS THIS
OCCURS. THE LOSS OF MIXING AND THE WEAKENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW WINDS TO DIMINISH QUICKLY TOWARD SUNSET. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN MILD OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN HEIGHTENED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THIS
AFTERNOON WITH CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR NUMEROUS GRASS FIRES. THE
MOST EXTREME CONDITIONS REMAIN OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE WINDS ARE STRONGEST HOWEVER...CURED FUELS AND LOW
HUMIDITY EXIST ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 337 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

TUESDAY EXPECTED TO BE MILD...WITH COOLER AIR IN PLACE THAN
TODAY...BUT MUCH LESS WIND. SOME WEAK ENERGY DROPS THROUGH THE
STATE ALOFT IN NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW...MAY RESULT IN SOME
MID/HIGH CLOUDS WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE.
MIXING EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED...SO WENT A LITTLE COOLER WITH TEMPS
THAN WHAT WAS PREVIOUS FORECASTED. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE A MILD
DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. WARMING KICKS IN IN
EARNEST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AHEAD OF AN UPPER WAVE
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE LOCATED AROUND SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF WILL PUSH
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...AND CREATE WINDY AND WARM CONDITIONS FOR
WEDNESDAY. H85 TEMPS CLIMB INTO THE TEENS CELSIUS AND WINDS IN THE
MIXED LAYER EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 30 TO 40 KTS OFF BUFKIT.
THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME SITES APPROACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST/NORTH. HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS A LITTLE
BIT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S GIVEN THE WARMING FLOW AND DEEPER
MIXING.

A COLD FRONT AND SFC TROUGH AXIS WILL BE SITUATED FROM NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...WITH THETA-E RIDGING INTO WESTERN/NORTHERN
IOWA. EXPECT SOME SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE AREA
OF THE TROUGH AXIS LATE WEDNESDAY MORNING OFF TO THE WEST OF THE
CWA...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 1500 J/KG ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR FOR SEVERE WEATHER. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE TIME OF DAY WITH THE ACTIVITY TO LIGHT UP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE WEST OR IN THE EXTREME WESTERN CWA. THE
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE
EVENING HOURS LIMITING THE SEVERE POTENTIAL SOME GIVEN IT IS STILL
EARLY APRIL. HOWEVER LLJ REMAINS STRONG AND ORIENTED DIRECTLY INTO
CENTRAL IOWA...SO THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DIMINISH
COMPLETELY WITH SUNSET. PUSH OF COLDER AIR SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO
RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL CONDITIONS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
MAINLY QUIET CONDITIONS. MAY HAVE A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE SECONDARY
COLD FRONT SITUATED NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER AND WEAK ENERGY LIFTING
OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP
MAY COME TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH TROUGHING DIGGING INTO THE WESTERN US. GFS/EC DISAGREE
ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DIGGING AND THE TIMING SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR FOR MORE AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY IN THE COMING DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 301729
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1229 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A
RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301729
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1229 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A
RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 301729
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1229 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A
RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301729
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1229 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/18Z
ISSUED AT 1227 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT GUSTY
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT
AND BECOMING MORE NORTHWESTERLY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO 15 TO 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN
THE LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA
AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A
RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-
GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 301128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. ANY CEILINGS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 8KFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AND BECOMING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A TROF
AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-
DALLAS-EMMET-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-
WEBSTER-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 301128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. ANY CEILINGS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 8KFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AND BECOMING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A TROF
AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-
DALLAS-EMMET-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-
WEBSTER-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 301128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. ANY CEILINGS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 8KFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AND BECOMING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A TROF
AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-
DALLAS-EMMET-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-
WEBSTER-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 301128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12Z
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE DURATION OF THE FORECAST WITH
UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES. ANY CEILINGS WILL BE AT OR ABOVE 8KFT.
SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY AND BECOME STRONG FROM THE
SOUTHWEST BY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT WITH WINDS
DECREASING AFTER SUNSET AND BECOMING NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AS A TROF
AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR
ADAIR-ADAMS-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-
DALLAS-EMMET-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MADISON-
PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAYLOR-UNION-WARREN-
WEBSTER-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300901
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SCT/BKN MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300901
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SCT/BKN MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 300901
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SCT/BKN MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300901
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
401 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

SURFACE RIDGE SLIDING TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA CURRENTLY WITH WINDS
BECOMING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE.  WARM ADVECTION WILL INTENSIFY
THROUGH THE MORNING ALONG WITH SURFACE WINDS AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS.  VERY GOOD SETUP FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS...DRY AIRMASS AND GENERALLY A GOOD AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE.  THERMAL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE STATE BY 00Z AND EXPECT
READINGS TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH 60S HOLDING
ON IN THE FAR NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE CWA.  GIVEN THE DEEP
MIXING...BLENDED MODEL DEWPOINTS WERE TOO HIGH AND LOWERED VALUES
ACCORDINGLY.  SURFACE LOW DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE STATE ALONG WITH ANY THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

THE LONG TERM ISSUES CONTINUE TO REMAIN ON TRACK. WE START WITH
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS BEING A GENERALLY WARM AND QUIET
PERIOD WITH A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES THAT TRANSLATES
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. HIGHS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL BE WARM WITH
READINGS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S. WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT A STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS BREAKING DOWN THE RIDGE WHILE AT
THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIP WILL
BE TIES TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WHICH IS SLOWER AND THUS WILL NOT
COME THROUGH UNTIL VERY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. THERE IS A LOT OF
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM AND 0-6KM CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500 J/KG
SO EVEN THOUGH THE FRONT WONT BE COMING THROUGH DURING THE OPTIMAL
TIME IT IS CLOSE ENOUGH AND PLENTY UNSTABLE WITH AMPLE FORCING
GOOD SHEAR. STILL LOOKS LIKE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AND A
FEW COULD BECOME SEVERE. SHEAR IS PRETTY UNIDIRECTIONAL SO THREATS
LOOK TO BE MORE HAIL/WIND AT THIS POINT. THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH
BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POST FRONTAL
INTO EARLY AFTERNOON POSSIBLY. JUST KEPT TOKEN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
SOUTHEAST IN THE AFTERNOON.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED IS MARKED WITH SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
PUSHING ACROSS THE REGION BRINGING IN COOLER AIR LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND AND SOME PRECIP POTENTIAL ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY TRIES TO ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS IOWA IN THE
SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME FRAME BUT MODELS ARE STILL NOT HANDLING THE
DETAILS WELL. I HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME. SOME INSTABILITY WORKS BACK INTO IOWA
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT SO THUNDER WAS MENTIONED.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SCT/BKN MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

WILL SEE A MARGINAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THIS AFTERNOON WITH RELATIVE
HUMIDITY VALUES DROPPING TO AROUND 20 PERCENT AND SURFACE WINDS
APPROACHING 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON.  GFDI VALUES WILL BE IN THE
LOWER 50 /EXTREME CATEGORY/ IN PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND
AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL GO WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING ACROSS ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 300514
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1214 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SCT/BKN MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300514
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1214 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SCT/BKN MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 300514
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1214 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SCT/BKN MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 300514
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1214 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/06Z
ISSUED AT 1213 AM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED
BY SCT/BKN MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING
PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300057
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
757 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 755 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
SOME MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT
AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 300057
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
757 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 755 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
SOME MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT
AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 300057
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
757 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 755 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
SOME MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT
AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 300057
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
757 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 755 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY
SOME MID CIGS INTO MON. WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AND THEN
INCREASE SOMEWHAT DURING PEAK HEATING MON...BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT
AS WHAT OCCURRED SUN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 292045
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE PASSING BOUNDARY
AND LAST FOR AROUND 3 HRS AT SITES. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-
CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-
MADISON-MARION-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-SAC-
STORY-TAMA-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 292045
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE PASSING BOUNDARY
AND LAST FOR AROUND 3 HRS AT SITES. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-
CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-
MADISON-MARION-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-SAC-
STORY-TAMA-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 292045
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE PASSING BOUNDARY
AND LAST FOR AROUND 3 HRS AT SITES. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-
CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-
MADISON-MARION-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-SAC-
STORY-TAMA-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 292045
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

BOUNDARY PASSAGE BROUGHT GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS TO THE STATE AND A
PERIOD OF COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUDS WHICH DROPPED TEMPERATURES 3-5
DEGREES. TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING OVER NORTHWEST IOWA WHERE THE
RETURN OF SUN AND DRIER AIR IS AIDING THE REBOUND. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND BECOME SOUTHWEST AS WARM ADVECTION DEVELOPS.
THE WARM ADVECTION WILL STEADY TEMPERATURES AFTER 06Z. OTHERWISE NO
SENSIBLE WEATHER OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

FAIRLY QUIET TO BEGIN THE PERIOD...WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
BUILDING INTO THE ERN ROCKIES AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH MID WEEK.
THIS SETS UP A WARMING PATTERN WITH WAA AND SOUTHWESTERLY TO
WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. H85 TEMPS CLIMB TO AROUND +10C TOWARD
TUESDAY NIGHT...SO SHOULD SEE SOME MILD DAYS WITH TEMPS TOPPING
OUT WELL ABOVE THE SEASONAL AVERAGES. THETA-E RIDGE NOSES INTO THE
WESTERN CWA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...AND WAA. MODELS ADVERTISING
POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITH THE LLJ
ORIENTED INTO THE CWA. CONCERN CENTERS AROUND MOISTURE
RETURN...WITH MOISTURE STILL LOOKING SOMEWHAT LIMITED. HAVE
INCREASED THE CLOUD COVER FOR NOW.

UPPER RIDGE MOVES EAST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SKIRTING THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PROVINCES. AN
ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS WESTERN IOWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY. SHOULD SEE SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOP
ALONG THIS FRONT AS IT MOVES ESE THROUGH THE AREA. CAPE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 1000 TO 1500 J/KG WITH OK SHEAR. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED
BEHIND THE FRONT FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SOME
DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR LATE IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK
SHOWING UP...WITH THE EC SHOVING THE FRONT WELL SOUTH OF THE
CWA. THE GFS TRIES TO HANG THE FRONT UP ACROSS THE CWA WITH
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT OF THE WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. HAVE SOME SMALLER
POPS IN TO REFLECT THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT HAVE LOWERED CHANCES
SOME TO TREND TOWARD THE EC AND THE FURTHER SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THERMAL RIDGE TO THEN BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION
TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS UPPER
RIDGING BUILDS IN ALOFT AS WELL. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPS
WARMING BACK TO NEAR OR ABOVE AVERAGE AFTER A COOLER STINT DURING
THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE PASSING BOUNDARY
AND LAST FOR AROUND 3 HRS AT SITES. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-
CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-
MADISON-MARION-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-SAC-
STORY-TAMA-UNION-WARREN-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DONAVON
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 291743
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1243 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION ONGOING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WITH
THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO MAXIMIZED IN CENTRAL IOWA CURRENTLY. HAVE
SEEN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE WEST AND EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS.  FORWARD PROGRESS IS CLOSE TO 50KTS AND EXPECT THIS
BAND TO CONTINUE TO PRESS QUICKLY EASTWARD WITH THE THETA-E
ADVECTION THIS MORNING.  MUCH OF THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER BY SUNRISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTH.  EVEN THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE.  ONLY REMAINING THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WRAP-AROUND NEAR UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING
NORTHERN IOWA.  AT THIS POINT...MOST MODELS KEEP THIS NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.  ANTICIPATE WINDS FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST TO INCREASE WITH MIXING BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 45KTS ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 50MPH THERE.  THERE APPEARS TO BE A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IN EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH.  HAVE EXPANDED THE
ADVISORY AREA TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE WINDS TEND TO BE STRONGER THAN THE HILLIER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTH AND EAST.  THE DECENT MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST WERE TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO
WEDNESDAY.  I DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS BEFORE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS VERY IMPRESSIVE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT FURTHER
EAST SO THE SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO RIDE THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT AREAS
FURTHER EAST THUS MISSING THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WEDNESDAY REMAINS VERY INTERESTING AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  THIS IS A LITTLE OUTSIDE PEAK HEATING
AND THE BEST INSTABILITY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC AND SHEAR IS
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 55KTS.  IT STILL
LOOKS AS THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST IN THAT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.  SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL HOWEVER LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ARE HOLDING ON TO PRECIP EVEN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE
SYSTEM IS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE AND I DON`T SEE A BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST.  STILL WITH TWO
OUT OF THE THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING LINGERING
PRECIP...AND IN KEEPING WITH COLLABORATION OF OTHER OFFICES...I DID
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 INTO
THURSDAY BUT THIS WOULD BE MAINLY EARLY TO MID MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WE WILL BE VERY WARM WITH WEDNESDAY
LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY/
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
FRONT WHICH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WILL NOW BE PASSING THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY.  I DID NUDGE HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
MODEL BLENDS WERE GIVING ME AND THIS MAY STILL BE TOO COOL.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE PATTERN GETS MESSY AND MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
THINGS WELL.  YESTERDAY THEY HAD A PRETTY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
THAT WAS BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION.  NOW THE CANADIAN IS THE
ONLY MODEL THAT IS REALLY KEEPING PRECIP GOING BUT MODEL BLENDS
STILL BLEND THE LAST RUNS POP/QPF INTO THIS RUN...WHICH IS WHY IT
WAS STILL GIVING ME CHANCE POPS.  FOR NOW I DID KNOCK POPS BACK BUT
DID NOT REMOVE IT COMPLETELY PRIMARILY BECAUSE IT WAS A BIG SHIFT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT THE MODELS
CURRENT SOLUTION IS CORRECT.  DAY SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
AND I WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TONIGHT AND CONSIDER BIGGER CHANGES IF
THE DAY SHIFT HASN`T ALREADY AND MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TO A
FURTHER SOUTH SHIFT TO PRECIP.  THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BRING AN END TO THE 70 DEGREE READINGS THOUGH AND HIGHS WILL BE
BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS.

NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP REALLY DOESN`T COME UNTIL THE END OF THE
EXTENDED WHEN THE MODELS BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE STATE.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE CUT OFF AT THIS POINT SO I TOOK
ANY POPS OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE PASSING BOUNDARY
AND LAST FOR AROUND 3 HRS AT SITES. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPREAD FIRES RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TODAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT.  HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN FROM 30 TO 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING AT
THIS TIME.  WILL STILL HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED FIRE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO AND POSSIBLY AN SPS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-
BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
POLK-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 291743
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1243 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION ONGOING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WITH
THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO MAXIMIZED IN CENTRAL IOWA CURRENTLY. HAVE
SEEN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE WEST AND EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS.  FORWARD PROGRESS IS CLOSE TO 50KTS AND EXPECT THIS
BAND TO CONTINUE TO PRESS QUICKLY EASTWARD WITH THE THETA-E
ADVECTION THIS MORNING.  MUCH OF THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER BY SUNRISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTH.  EVEN THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE.  ONLY REMAINING THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WRAP-AROUND NEAR UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING
NORTHERN IOWA.  AT THIS POINT...MOST MODELS KEEP THIS NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.  ANTICIPATE WINDS FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST TO INCREASE WITH MIXING BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 45KTS ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 50MPH THERE.  THERE APPEARS TO BE A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IN EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH.  HAVE EXPANDED THE
ADVISORY AREA TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE WINDS TEND TO BE STRONGER THAN THE HILLIER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTH AND EAST.  THE DECENT MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST WERE TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO
WEDNESDAY.  I DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS BEFORE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS VERY IMPRESSIVE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT FURTHER
EAST SO THE SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO RIDE THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT AREAS
FURTHER EAST THUS MISSING THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WEDNESDAY REMAINS VERY INTERESTING AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  THIS IS A LITTLE OUTSIDE PEAK HEATING
AND THE BEST INSTABILITY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC AND SHEAR IS
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 55KTS.  IT STILL
LOOKS AS THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST IN THAT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.  SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL HOWEVER LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ARE HOLDING ON TO PRECIP EVEN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE
SYSTEM IS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE AND I DON`T SEE A BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST.  STILL WITH TWO
OUT OF THE THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING LINGERING
PRECIP...AND IN KEEPING WITH COLLABORATION OF OTHER OFFICES...I DID
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 INTO
THURSDAY BUT THIS WOULD BE MAINLY EARLY TO MID MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WE WILL BE VERY WARM WITH WEDNESDAY
LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY/
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
FRONT WHICH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WILL NOW BE PASSING THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY.  I DID NUDGE HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
MODEL BLENDS WERE GIVING ME AND THIS MAY STILL BE TOO COOL.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE PATTERN GETS MESSY AND MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
THINGS WELL.  YESTERDAY THEY HAD A PRETTY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
THAT WAS BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION.  NOW THE CANADIAN IS THE
ONLY MODEL THAT IS REALLY KEEPING PRECIP GOING BUT MODEL BLENDS
STILL BLEND THE LAST RUNS POP/QPF INTO THIS RUN...WHICH IS WHY IT
WAS STILL GIVING ME CHANCE POPS.  FOR NOW I DID KNOCK POPS BACK BUT
DID NOT REMOVE IT COMPLETELY PRIMARILY BECAUSE IT WAS A BIG SHIFT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT THE MODELS
CURRENT SOLUTION IS CORRECT.  DAY SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
AND I WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TONIGHT AND CONSIDER BIGGER CHANGES IF
THE DAY SHIFT HASN`T ALREADY AND MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TO A
FURTHER SOUTH SHIFT TO PRECIP.  THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BRING AN END TO THE 70 DEGREE READINGS THOUGH AND HIGHS WILL BE
BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS.

NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP REALLY DOESN`T COME UNTIL THE END OF THE
EXTENDED WHEN THE MODELS BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE STATE.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE CUT OFF AT THIS POINT SO I TOOK
ANY POPS OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE PASSING BOUNDARY
AND LAST FOR AROUND 3 HRS AT SITES. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPREAD FIRES RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TODAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT.  HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN FROM 30 TO 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING AT
THIS TIME.  WILL STILL HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED FIRE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO AND POSSIBLY AN SPS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-
BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
POLK-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 291743
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1243 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION ONGOING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WITH
THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO MAXIMIZED IN CENTRAL IOWA CURRENTLY. HAVE
SEEN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE WEST AND EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS.  FORWARD PROGRESS IS CLOSE TO 50KTS AND EXPECT THIS
BAND TO CONTINUE TO PRESS QUICKLY EASTWARD WITH THE THETA-E
ADVECTION THIS MORNING.  MUCH OF THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER BY SUNRISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTH.  EVEN THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE.  ONLY REMAINING THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WRAP-AROUND NEAR UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING
NORTHERN IOWA.  AT THIS POINT...MOST MODELS KEEP THIS NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.  ANTICIPATE WINDS FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST TO INCREASE WITH MIXING BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 45KTS ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 50MPH THERE.  THERE APPEARS TO BE A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IN EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH.  HAVE EXPANDED THE
ADVISORY AREA TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE WINDS TEND TO BE STRONGER THAN THE HILLIER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTH AND EAST.  THE DECENT MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST WERE TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO
WEDNESDAY.  I DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS BEFORE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS VERY IMPRESSIVE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT FURTHER
EAST SO THE SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO RIDE THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT AREAS
FURTHER EAST THUS MISSING THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WEDNESDAY REMAINS VERY INTERESTING AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  THIS IS A LITTLE OUTSIDE PEAK HEATING
AND THE BEST INSTABILITY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC AND SHEAR IS
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 55KTS.  IT STILL
LOOKS AS THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST IN THAT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.  SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL HOWEVER LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ARE HOLDING ON TO PRECIP EVEN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE
SYSTEM IS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE AND I DON`T SEE A BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST.  STILL WITH TWO
OUT OF THE THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING LINGERING
PRECIP...AND IN KEEPING WITH COLLABORATION OF OTHER OFFICES...I DID
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 INTO
THURSDAY BUT THIS WOULD BE MAINLY EARLY TO MID MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WE WILL BE VERY WARM WITH WEDNESDAY
LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY/
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
FRONT WHICH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WILL NOW BE PASSING THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY.  I DID NUDGE HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
MODEL BLENDS WERE GIVING ME AND THIS MAY STILL BE TOO COOL.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE PATTERN GETS MESSY AND MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
THINGS WELL.  YESTERDAY THEY HAD A PRETTY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
THAT WAS BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION.  NOW THE CANADIAN IS THE
ONLY MODEL THAT IS REALLY KEEPING PRECIP GOING BUT MODEL BLENDS
STILL BLEND THE LAST RUNS POP/QPF INTO THIS RUN...WHICH IS WHY IT
WAS STILL GIVING ME CHANCE POPS.  FOR NOW I DID KNOCK POPS BACK BUT
DID NOT REMOVE IT COMPLETELY PRIMARILY BECAUSE IT WAS A BIG SHIFT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT THE MODELS
CURRENT SOLUTION IS CORRECT.  DAY SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
AND I WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TONIGHT AND CONSIDER BIGGER CHANGES IF
THE DAY SHIFT HASN`T ALREADY AND MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TO A
FURTHER SOUTH SHIFT TO PRECIP.  THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BRING AN END TO THE 70 DEGREE READINGS THOUGH AND HIGHS WILL BE
BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS.

NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP REALLY DOESN`T COME UNTIL THE END OF THE
EXTENDED WHEN THE MODELS BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE STATE.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE CUT OFF AT THIS POINT SO I TOOK
ANY POPS OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE PASSING BOUNDARY
AND LAST FOR AROUND 3 HRS AT SITES. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPREAD FIRES RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TODAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT.  HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN FROM 30 TO 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING AT
THIS TIME.  WILL STILL HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED FIRE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO AND POSSIBLY AN SPS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-
BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
POLK-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 291743
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1243 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION ONGOING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WITH
THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO MAXIMIZED IN CENTRAL IOWA CURRENTLY. HAVE
SEEN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE WEST AND EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS.  FORWARD PROGRESS IS CLOSE TO 50KTS AND EXPECT THIS
BAND TO CONTINUE TO PRESS QUICKLY EASTWARD WITH THE THETA-E
ADVECTION THIS MORNING.  MUCH OF THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER BY SUNRISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTH.  EVEN THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE.  ONLY REMAINING THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WRAP-AROUND NEAR UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING
NORTHERN IOWA.  AT THIS POINT...MOST MODELS KEEP THIS NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.  ANTICIPATE WINDS FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST TO INCREASE WITH MIXING BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 45KTS ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 50MPH THERE.  THERE APPEARS TO BE A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IN EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH.  HAVE EXPANDED THE
ADVISORY AREA TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE WINDS TEND TO BE STRONGER THAN THE HILLIER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTH AND EAST.  THE DECENT MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST WERE TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO
WEDNESDAY.  I DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS BEFORE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS VERY IMPRESSIVE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT FURTHER
EAST SO THE SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO RIDE THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT AREAS
FURTHER EAST THUS MISSING THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WEDNESDAY REMAINS VERY INTERESTING AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  THIS IS A LITTLE OUTSIDE PEAK HEATING
AND THE BEST INSTABILITY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC AND SHEAR IS
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 55KTS.  IT STILL
LOOKS AS THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST IN THAT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.  SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL HOWEVER LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ARE HOLDING ON TO PRECIP EVEN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE
SYSTEM IS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE AND I DON`T SEE A BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST.  STILL WITH TWO
OUT OF THE THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING LINGERING
PRECIP...AND IN KEEPING WITH COLLABORATION OF OTHER OFFICES...I DID
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 INTO
THURSDAY BUT THIS WOULD BE MAINLY EARLY TO MID MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WE WILL BE VERY WARM WITH WEDNESDAY
LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY/
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
FRONT WHICH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WILL NOW BE PASSING THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY.  I DID NUDGE HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
MODEL BLENDS WERE GIVING ME AND THIS MAY STILL BE TOO COOL.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE PATTERN GETS MESSY AND MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
THINGS WELL.  YESTERDAY THEY HAD A PRETTY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
THAT WAS BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION.  NOW THE CANADIAN IS THE
ONLY MODEL THAT IS REALLY KEEPING PRECIP GOING BUT MODEL BLENDS
STILL BLEND THE LAST RUNS POP/QPF INTO THIS RUN...WHICH IS WHY IT
WAS STILL GIVING ME CHANCE POPS.  FOR NOW I DID KNOCK POPS BACK BUT
DID NOT REMOVE IT COMPLETELY PRIMARILY BECAUSE IT WAS A BIG SHIFT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT THE MODELS
CURRENT SOLUTION IS CORRECT.  DAY SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
AND I WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TONIGHT AND CONSIDER BIGGER CHANGES IF
THE DAY SHIFT HASN`T ALREADY AND MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TO A
FURTHER SOUTH SHIFT TO PRECIP.  THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BRING AN END TO THE 70 DEGREE READINGS THOUGH AND HIGHS WILL BE
BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS.

NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP REALLY DOESN`T COME UNTIL THE END OF THE
EXTENDED WHEN THE MODELS BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE STATE.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE CUT OFF AT THIS POINT SO I TOOK
ANY POPS OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1240 PM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS OVER 35 KTS THIS AFTERNOON. AN
AREA OF MVFR CIGS WILL MOVE THROUGH BEHIND THE PASSING BOUNDARY
AND LAST FOR AROUND 3 HRS AT SITES. WINDS DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. EXPECT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ON MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPREAD FIRES RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TODAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT.  HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN FROM 30 TO 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING AT
THIS TIME.  WILL STILL HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED FIRE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO AND POSSIBLY AN SPS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-
BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-
POLK-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...DONAVON
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 291158
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
658 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION ONGOING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WITH
THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO MAXIMIZED IN CENTRAL IOWA CURRENTLY. HAVE
SEEN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE WEST AND EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS.  FORWARD PROGRESS IS CLOSE TO 50KTS AND EXPECT THIS
BAND TO CONTINUE TO PRESS QUICKLY EASTWARD WITH THE THETA-E
ADVECTION THIS MORNING.  MUCH OF THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER BY SUNRISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTH.  EVEN THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE.  ONLY REMAINING THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WRAP-AROUND NEAR UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING
NORTHERN IOWA.  AT THIS POINT...MOST MODELS KEEP THIS NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.  ANTICIPATE WINDS FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST TO INCREASE WITH MIXING BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 45KTS ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 50MPH THERE.  THERE APPEARS TO BE A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IN EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH.  HAVE EXPANDED THE
ADVISORY AREA TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE WINDS TEND TO BE STRONGER THAN THE HILLIER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTH AND EAST.  THE DECENT MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST WERE TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO
WEDNESDAY.  I DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS BEFORE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS VERY IMPRESSIVE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT FURTHER
EAST SO THE SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO RIDE THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT AREAS
FURTHER EAST THUS MISSING THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WEDNESDAY REMAINS VERY INTERESTING AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  THIS IS A LITTLE OUTSIDE PEAK HEATING
AND THE BEST INSTABILITY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC AND SHEAR IS
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 55KTS.  IT STILL
LOOKS AS THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST IN THAT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.  SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL HOWEVER LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ARE HOLDING ON TO PRECIP EVEN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE
SYSTEM IS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE AND I DON`T SEE A BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST.  STILL WITH TWO
OUT OF THE THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING LINGERING
PRECIP...AND IN KEEPING WITH COLLABORATION OF OTHER OFFICES...I DID
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 INTO
THURSDAY BUT THIS WOULD BE MAINLY EARLY TO MID MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WE WILL BE VERY WARM WITH WEDNESDAY
LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY/
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
FRONT WHICH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WILL NOW BE PASSING THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY.  I DID NUDGE HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
MODEL BLENDS WERE GIVING ME AND THIS MAY STILL BE TOO COOL.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE PATTERN GETS MESSY AND MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
THINGS WELL.  YESTERDAY THEY HAD A PRETTY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
THAT WAS BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION.  NOW THE CANADIAN IS THE
ONLY MODEL THAT IS REALLY KEEPING PRECIP GOING BUT MODEL BLENDS
STILL BLEND THE LAST RUNS POP/QPF INTO THIS RUN...WHICH IS WHY IT
WAS STILL GIVING ME CHANCE POPS.  FOR NOW I DID KNOCK POPS BACK BUT
DID NOT REMOVE IT COMPLETELY PRIMARILY BECAUSE IT WAS A BIG SHIFT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT THE MODELS
CURRENT SOLUTION IS CORRECT.  DAY SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
AND I WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TONIGHT AND CONSIDER BIGGER CHANGES IF
THE DAY SHIFT HASN`T ALREADY AND MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TO A
FURTHER SOUTH SHIFT TO PRECIP.  THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BRING AN END TO THE 70 DEGREE READINGS THOUGH AND HIGHS WILL BE
BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS.

NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP REALLY DOESN`T COME UNTIL THE END OF THE
EXTENDED WHEN THE MODELS BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE STATE.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE CUT OFF AT THIS POINT SO I TOOK
ANY POPS OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TAF LOCATIONS REMAINING PRECIPITATION FREE FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY AFFECT TAF SITES AROUND 18Z TODAY.
OTHERWISE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NEAR IOWA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOMING MUCH LIGHTER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPREAD FIRES RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TODAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT.  HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN FROM 30 TO 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING AT
THIS TIME.  WILL STILL HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED FIRE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO AND POSSIBLY AN SPS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 291158
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
658 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION ONGOING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WITH
THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO MAXIMIZED IN CENTRAL IOWA CURRENTLY. HAVE
SEEN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE WEST AND EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS.  FORWARD PROGRESS IS CLOSE TO 50KTS AND EXPECT THIS
BAND TO CONTINUE TO PRESS QUICKLY EASTWARD WITH THE THETA-E
ADVECTION THIS MORNING.  MUCH OF THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER BY SUNRISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTH.  EVEN THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE.  ONLY REMAINING THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WRAP-AROUND NEAR UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING
NORTHERN IOWA.  AT THIS POINT...MOST MODELS KEEP THIS NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.  ANTICIPATE WINDS FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST TO INCREASE WITH MIXING BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 45KTS ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 50MPH THERE.  THERE APPEARS TO BE A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IN EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH.  HAVE EXPANDED THE
ADVISORY AREA TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE WINDS TEND TO BE STRONGER THAN THE HILLIER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTH AND EAST.  THE DECENT MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST WERE TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO
WEDNESDAY.  I DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS BEFORE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS VERY IMPRESSIVE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT FURTHER
EAST SO THE SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO RIDE THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT AREAS
FURTHER EAST THUS MISSING THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WEDNESDAY REMAINS VERY INTERESTING AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  THIS IS A LITTLE OUTSIDE PEAK HEATING
AND THE BEST INSTABILITY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC AND SHEAR IS
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 55KTS.  IT STILL
LOOKS AS THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST IN THAT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.  SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL HOWEVER LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ARE HOLDING ON TO PRECIP EVEN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE
SYSTEM IS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE AND I DON`T SEE A BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST.  STILL WITH TWO
OUT OF THE THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING LINGERING
PRECIP...AND IN KEEPING WITH COLLABORATION OF OTHER OFFICES...I DID
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 INTO
THURSDAY BUT THIS WOULD BE MAINLY EARLY TO MID MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WE WILL BE VERY WARM WITH WEDNESDAY
LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY/
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
FRONT WHICH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WILL NOW BE PASSING THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY.  I DID NUDGE HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
MODEL BLENDS WERE GIVING ME AND THIS MAY STILL BE TOO COOL.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE PATTERN GETS MESSY AND MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
THINGS WELL.  YESTERDAY THEY HAD A PRETTY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
THAT WAS BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION.  NOW THE CANADIAN IS THE
ONLY MODEL THAT IS REALLY KEEPING PRECIP GOING BUT MODEL BLENDS
STILL BLEND THE LAST RUNS POP/QPF INTO THIS RUN...WHICH IS WHY IT
WAS STILL GIVING ME CHANCE POPS.  FOR NOW I DID KNOCK POPS BACK BUT
DID NOT REMOVE IT COMPLETELY PRIMARILY BECAUSE IT WAS A BIG SHIFT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT THE MODELS
CURRENT SOLUTION IS CORRECT.  DAY SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
AND I WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TONIGHT AND CONSIDER BIGGER CHANGES IF
THE DAY SHIFT HASN`T ALREADY AND MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TO A
FURTHER SOUTH SHIFT TO PRECIP.  THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BRING AN END TO THE 70 DEGREE READINGS THOUGH AND HIGHS WILL BE
BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS.

NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP REALLY DOESN`T COME UNTIL THE END OF THE
EXTENDED WHEN THE MODELS BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE STATE.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE CUT OFF AT THIS POINT SO I TOOK
ANY POPS OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TAF LOCATIONS REMAINING PRECIPITATION FREE FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY AFFECT TAF SITES AROUND 18Z TODAY.
OTHERWISE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NEAR IOWA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOMING MUCH LIGHTER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPREAD FIRES RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TODAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT.  HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN FROM 30 TO 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING AT
THIS TIME.  WILL STILL HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED FIRE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO AND POSSIBLY AN SPS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 291158
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
658 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION ONGOING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WITH
THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO MAXIMIZED IN CENTRAL IOWA CURRENTLY. HAVE
SEEN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE WEST AND EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS.  FORWARD PROGRESS IS CLOSE TO 50KTS AND EXPECT THIS
BAND TO CONTINUE TO PRESS QUICKLY EASTWARD WITH THE THETA-E
ADVECTION THIS MORNING.  MUCH OF THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER BY SUNRISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTH.  EVEN THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE.  ONLY REMAINING THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WRAP-AROUND NEAR UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING
NORTHERN IOWA.  AT THIS POINT...MOST MODELS KEEP THIS NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.  ANTICIPATE WINDS FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST TO INCREASE WITH MIXING BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 45KTS ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 50MPH THERE.  THERE APPEARS TO BE A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IN EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH.  HAVE EXPANDED THE
ADVISORY AREA TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE WINDS TEND TO BE STRONGER THAN THE HILLIER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTH AND EAST.  THE DECENT MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST WERE TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO
WEDNESDAY.  I DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS BEFORE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS VERY IMPRESSIVE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT FURTHER
EAST SO THE SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO RIDE THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT AREAS
FURTHER EAST THUS MISSING THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WEDNESDAY REMAINS VERY INTERESTING AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  THIS IS A LITTLE OUTSIDE PEAK HEATING
AND THE BEST INSTABILITY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC AND SHEAR IS
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 55KTS.  IT STILL
LOOKS AS THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST IN THAT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.  SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL HOWEVER LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ARE HOLDING ON TO PRECIP EVEN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE
SYSTEM IS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE AND I DON`T SEE A BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST.  STILL WITH TWO
OUT OF THE THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING LINGERING
PRECIP...AND IN KEEPING WITH COLLABORATION OF OTHER OFFICES...I DID
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 INTO
THURSDAY BUT THIS WOULD BE MAINLY EARLY TO MID MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WE WILL BE VERY WARM WITH WEDNESDAY
LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY/
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
FRONT WHICH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WILL NOW BE PASSING THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY.  I DID NUDGE HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
MODEL BLENDS WERE GIVING ME AND THIS MAY STILL BE TOO COOL.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE PATTERN GETS MESSY AND MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
THINGS WELL.  YESTERDAY THEY HAD A PRETTY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
THAT WAS BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION.  NOW THE CANADIAN IS THE
ONLY MODEL THAT IS REALLY KEEPING PRECIP GOING BUT MODEL BLENDS
STILL BLEND THE LAST RUNS POP/QPF INTO THIS RUN...WHICH IS WHY IT
WAS STILL GIVING ME CHANCE POPS.  FOR NOW I DID KNOCK POPS BACK BUT
DID NOT REMOVE IT COMPLETELY PRIMARILY BECAUSE IT WAS A BIG SHIFT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT THE MODELS
CURRENT SOLUTION IS CORRECT.  DAY SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
AND I WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TONIGHT AND CONSIDER BIGGER CHANGES IF
THE DAY SHIFT HASN`T ALREADY AND MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TO A
FURTHER SOUTH SHIFT TO PRECIP.  THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BRING AN END TO THE 70 DEGREE READINGS THOUGH AND HIGHS WILL BE
BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS.

NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP REALLY DOESN`T COME UNTIL THE END OF THE
EXTENDED WHEN THE MODELS BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE STATE.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE CUT OFF AT THIS POINT SO I TOOK
ANY POPS OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TAF LOCATIONS REMAINING PRECIPITATION FREE FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY AFFECT TAF SITES AROUND 18Z TODAY.
OTHERWISE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NEAR IOWA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOMING MUCH LIGHTER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPREAD FIRES RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TODAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT.  HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN FROM 30 TO 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING AT
THIS TIME.  WILL STILL HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED FIRE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO AND POSSIBLY AN SPS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 291158
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
658 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION ONGOING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WITH
THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO MAXIMIZED IN CENTRAL IOWA CURRENTLY. HAVE
SEEN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE WEST AND EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS.  FORWARD PROGRESS IS CLOSE TO 50KTS AND EXPECT THIS
BAND TO CONTINUE TO PRESS QUICKLY EASTWARD WITH THE THETA-E
ADVECTION THIS MORNING.  MUCH OF THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER BY SUNRISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTH.  EVEN THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE.  ONLY REMAINING THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WRAP-AROUND NEAR UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING
NORTHERN IOWA.  AT THIS POINT...MOST MODELS KEEP THIS NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.  ANTICIPATE WINDS FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST TO INCREASE WITH MIXING BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 45KTS ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 50MPH THERE.  THERE APPEARS TO BE A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IN EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH.  HAVE EXPANDED THE
ADVISORY AREA TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE WINDS TEND TO BE STRONGER THAN THE HILLIER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTH AND EAST.  THE DECENT MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST WERE TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO
WEDNESDAY.  I DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS BEFORE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS VERY IMPRESSIVE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT FURTHER
EAST SO THE SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO RIDE THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT AREAS
FURTHER EAST THUS MISSING THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WEDNESDAY REMAINS VERY INTERESTING AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  THIS IS A LITTLE OUTSIDE PEAK HEATING
AND THE BEST INSTABILITY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC AND SHEAR IS
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 55KTS.  IT STILL
LOOKS AS THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST IN THAT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.  SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL HOWEVER LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ARE HOLDING ON TO PRECIP EVEN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE
SYSTEM IS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE AND I DON`T SEE A BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST.  STILL WITH TWO
OUT OF THE THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING LINGERING
PRECIP...AND IN KEEPING WITH COLLABORATION OF OTHER OFFICES...I DID
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 INTO
THURSDAY BUT THIS WOULD BE MAINLY EARLY TO MID MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WE WILL BE VERY WARM WITH WEDNESDAY
LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY/
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
FRONT WHICH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WILL NOW BE PASSING THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY.  I DID NUDGE HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
MODEL BLENDS WERE GIVING ME AND THIS MAY STILL BE TOO COOL.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE PATTERN GETS MESSY AND MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
THINGS WELL.  YESTERDAY THEY HAD A PRETTY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
THAT WAS BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION.  NOW THE CANADIAN IS THE
ONLY MODEL THAT IS REALLY KEEPING PRECIP GOING BUT MODEL BLENDS
STILL BLEND THE LAST RUNS POP/QPF INTO THIS RUN...WHICH IS WHY IT
WAS STILL GIVING ME CHANCE POPS.  FOR NOW I DID KNOCK POPS BACK BUT
DID NOT REMOVE IT COMPLETELY PRIMARILY BECAUSE IT WAS A BIG SHIFT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT THE MODELS
CURRENT SOLUTION IS CORRECT.  DAY SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
AND I WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TONIGHT AND CONSIDER BIGGER CHANGES IF
THE DAY SHIFT HASN`T ALREADY AND MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TO A
FURTHER SOUTH SHIFT TO PRECIP.  THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BRING AN END TO THE 70 DEGREE READINGS THOUGH AND HIGHS WILL BE
BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS.

NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP REALLY DOESN`T COME UNTIL THE END OF THE
EXTENDED WHEN THE MODELS BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE STATE.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE CUT OFF AT THIS POINT SO I TOOK
ANY POPS OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...29/12Z
ISSUED AT 657 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

PRECIPITATION WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING
WITH TAF LOCATIONS REMAINING PRECIPITATION FREE FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR TODAY ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS MAY AFFECT TAF SITES AROUND 18Z TODAY.
OTHERWISE...STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED BY THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SURFACE GUSTS OF 35 TO 40KTS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AT KMCW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL NEAR IOWA TONIGHT WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS
BECOMING MUCH LIGHTER.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPREAD FIRES RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TODAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT.  HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN FROM 30 TO 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING AT
THIS TIME.  WILL STILL HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED FIRE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO AND POSSIBLY AN SPS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 290852
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION ONGOING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WITH
THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO MAXIMIZED IN CENTRAL IOWA CURRENTLY. HAVE
SEEN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE WEST AND EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS.  FORWARD PROGRESS IS CLOSE TO 50KTS AND EXPECT THIS
BAND TO CONTINUE TO PRESS QUICKLY EASTWARD WITH THE THETA-E
ADVECTION THIS MORNING.  MUCH OF THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER BY SUNRISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTH.  EVEN THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE.  ONLY REMAINING THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WRAP-AROUND NEAR UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING
NORTHERN IOWA.  AT THIS POINT...MOST MODELS KEEP THIS NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.  ANTICIPATE WINDS FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST TO INCREASE WITH MIXING BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 45KTS ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 50MPH THERE.  THERE APPEARS TO BE A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IN EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH.  HAVE EXPANDED THE
ADVISORY AREA TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE WINDS TEND TO BE STRONGER THAN THE HILLIER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTH AND EAST.  THE DECENT MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST WERE TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO
WEDNESDAY.  I DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS BEFORE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS VERY IMPRESSIVE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT FURTHER
EAST SO THE SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO RIDE THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT AREAS
FURTHER EAST THUS MISSING THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WEDNESDAY REMAINS VERY INTERESTING AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  THIS IS A LITTLE OUTSIDE PEAK HEATING
AND THE BEST INSTABILITY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC AND SHEAR IS
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 55KTS.  IT STILL
LOOKS AS THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST IN THAT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.  SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL HOWEVER LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ARE HOLDING ON TO PRECIP EVEN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE
SYSTEM IS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE AND I DON`T SEE A BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST.  STILL WITH TWO
OUT OF THE THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING LINGERING
PRECIP...AND IN KEEPING WITH COLLABORATION OF OTHER OFFICES...I DID
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 INTO
THURSDAY BUT THIS WOULD BE MAINLY EARLY TO MID MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WE WILL BE VERY WARM WITH WEDNESDAY
LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY/
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
FRONT WHICH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WILL NOW BE PASSING THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY.  I DID NUDGE HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
MODEL BLENDS WERE GIVING ME AND THIS MAY STILL BE TOO COOL.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE PATTERN GETS MESSY AND MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
THINGS WELL.  YESTERDAY THEY HAD A PRETTY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
THAT WAS BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION.  NOW THE CANADIAN IS THE
ONLY MODEL THAT IS REALLY KEEPING PRECIP GOING BUT MODEL BLENDS
STILL BLEND THE LAST RUNS POP/QPF INTO THIS RUN...WHICH IS WHY IT
WAS STILL GIVING ME CHANCE POPS.  FOR NOW I DID KNOCK POPS BACK BUT
DID NOT REMOVE IT COMPLETELY PRIMARILY BECAUSE IT WAS A BIG SHIFT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT THE MODELS
CURRENT SOLUTION IS CORRECT.  DAY SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
AND I WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TONIGHT AND CONSIDER BIGGER CHANGES IF
THE DAY SHIFT HASN`T ALREADY AND MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TO A
FURTHER SOUTH SHIFT TO PRECIP.  THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BRING AN END TO THE 70 DEGREE READINGS THOUGH AND HIGHS WILL BE
BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS.

NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP REALLY DOESN`T COME UNTIL THE END OF THE
EXTENDED WHEN THE MODELS BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE STATE.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE CUT OFF AT THIS POINT SO I TOOK
ANY POPS OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR/CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER
ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM TO PROGRESSION OF CURRENT DAKOTAS
ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH MAY BEGIN REACHING NW TAF SITES AROUND
08Z. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH/-SHRA WORDING AND GENERALLY STILL VFR
ALTHOUGH VSBYS OR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR AS WELL. BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS SERN SITES /KDSM/KALO/KOTM/. NO THUNDER MENTION AS
OF YET UNTIL TIMING AND LOCATION CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS WILL
PICK UP INTO THE MORNING AND INCREASE FURTHER WITH FROPA SUN.
GUSTS WILL OFTEN EXCEED 30KTS BY THEN...REACHING WELL INTO THE 30S
NORTH AND WEST UNTIL DIURNAL LOSS OF MIXING BY EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPREAD FIRES RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TODAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT.  HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN FROM 30 TO 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING AT
THIS TIME.  WILL STILL HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED FIRE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO AND POSSIBLY AN SPS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 290852
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION ONGOING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WITH
THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO MAXIMIZED IN CENTRAL IOWA CURRENTLY. HAVE
SEEN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE WEST AND EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS.  FORWARD PROGRESS IS CLOSE TO 50KTS AND EXPECT THIS
BAND TO CONTINUE TO PRESS QUICKLY EASTWARD WITH THE THETA-E
ADVECTION THIS MORNING.  MUCH OF THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER BY SUNRISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTH.  EVEN THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE.  ONLY REMAINING THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WRAP-AROUND NEAR UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING
NORTHERN IOWA.  AT THIS POINT...MOST MODELS KEEP THIS NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.  ANTICIPATE WINDS FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST TO INCREASE WITH MIXING BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 45KTS ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 50MPH THERE.  THERE APPEARS TO BE A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IN EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH.  HAVE EXPANDED THE
ADVISORY AREA TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE WINDS TEND TO BE STRONGER THAN THE HILLIER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTH AND EAST.  THE DECENT MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST WERE TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO
WEDNESDAY.  I DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS BEFORE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS VERY IMPRESSIVE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT FURTHER
EAST SO THE SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO RIDE THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT AREAS
FURTHER EAST THUS MISSING THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WEDNESDAY REMAINS VERY INTERESTING AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  THIS IS A LITTLE OUTSIDE PEAK HEATING
AND THE BEST INSTABILITY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC AND SHEAR IS
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 55KTS.  IT STILL
LOOKS AS THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST IN THAT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.  SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL HOWEVER LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ARE HOLDING ON TO PRECIP EVEN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE
SYSTEM IS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE AND I DON`T SEE A BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST.  STILL WITH TWO
OUT OF THE THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING LINGERING
PRECIP...AND IN KEEPING WITH COLLABORATION OF OTHER OFFICES...I DID
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 INTO
THURSDAY BUT THIS WOULD BE MAINLY EARLY TO MID MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WE WILL BE VERY WARM WITH WEDNESDAY
LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY/
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
FRONT WHICH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WILL NOW BE PASSING THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY.  I DID NUDGE HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
MODEL BLENDS WERE GIVING ME AND THIS MAY STILL BE TOO COOL.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE PATTERN GETS MESSY AND MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
THINGS WELL.  YESTERDAY THEY HAD A PRETTY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
THAT WAS BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION.  NOW THE CANADIAN IS THE
ONLY MODEL THAT IS REALLY KEEPING PRECIP GOING BUT MODEL BLENDS
STILL BLEND THE LAST RUNS POP/QPF INTO THIS RUN...WHICH IS WHY IT
WAS STILL GIVING ME CHANCE POPS.  FOR NOW I DID KNOCK POPS BACK BUT
DID NOT REMOVE IT COMPLETELY PRIMARILY BECAUSE IT WAS A BIG SHIFT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT THE MODELS
CURRENT SOLUTION IS CORRECT.  DAY SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
AND I WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TONIGHT AND CONSIDER BIGGER CHANGES IF
THE DAY SHIFT HASN`T ALREADY AND MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TO A
FURTHER SOUTH SHIFT TO PRECIP.  THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BRING AN END TO THE 70 DEGREE READINGS THOUGH AND HIGHS WILL BE
BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS.

NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP REALLY DOESN`T COME UNTIL THE END OF THE
EXTENDED WHEN THE MODELS BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE STATE.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE CUT OFF AT THIS POINT SO I TOOK
ANY POPS OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR/CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER
ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM TO PROGRESSION OF CURRENT DAKOTAS
ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH MAY BEGIN REACHING NW TAF SITES AROUND
08Z. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH/-SHRA WORDING AND GENERALLY STILL VFR
ALTHOUGH VSBYS OR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR AS WELL. BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS SERN SITES /KDSM/KALO/KOTM/. NO THUNDER MENTION AS
OF YET UNTIL TIMING AND LOCATION CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS WILL
PICK UP INTO THE MORNING AND INCREASE FURTHER WITH FROPA SUN.
GUSTS WILL OFTEN EXCEED 30KTS BY THEN...REACHING WELL INTO THE 30S
NORTH AND WEST UNTIL DIURNAL LOSS OF MIXING BY EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPREAD FIRES RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TODAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT.  HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN FROM 30 TO 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING AT
THIS TIME.  WILL STILL HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED FIRE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO AND POSSIBLY AN SPS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 290852
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

STRONG WARM ADVECTION ONGOING AHEAD OF APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WITH
THETA-E ADVECTION ALSO MAXIMIZED IN CENTRAL IOWA CURRENTLY. HAVE
SEEN SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE WEST AND EXPAND SOMEWHAT OVER THE PAST
COUPLE OF HOURS.  FORWARD PROGRESS IS CLOSE TO 50KTS AND EXPECT THIS
BAND TO CONTINUE TO PRESS QUICKLY EASTWARD WITH THE THETA-E
ADVECTION THIS MORNING.  MUCH OF THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE
OVER BY SUNRISE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR THE FAR EAST AND
SOUTH.  EVEN THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MID TO LATE MORNING AS THE
SURFACE FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE STATE.  ONLY REMAINING THREAT FOR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE WRAP-AROUND NEAR UPPER SYSTEM APPROACHING
NORTHERN IOWA.  AT THIS POINT...MOST MODELS KEEP THIS NORTH OF THE
BORDER AND HAVE THEREFORE LEFT THE FORECAST DRY INTO THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...OTHER ISSUE WILL BE THE WIND WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT.  ANTICIPATE WINDS FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST TO INCREASE WITH MIXING BY LATER THIS MORNING WITH VERY
STRONG WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS INDICATE
WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER AROUND 45KTS ACROSS NORTHERN
IOWA AND COULD SEE SOME GUSTS OF 50MPH THERE.  THERE APPEARS TO BE A
FEW HOUR WINDOW IN EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF
OF FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE SOME ADVISORY CRITERIA WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS OF 30 MPH AND GUSTS APPROACHING 45 MPH.  HAVE EXPANDED THE
ADVISORY AREA TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA WHERE WINDS TEND TO BE STRONGER THAN THE HILLIER TERRAIN OF THE
SOUTH AND EAST.  THE DECENT MIXING WILL HELP TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB
ABOVE NORMAL TODAY ALONG WITH CLEARING SKIES BY THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

THE MAIN CHANGES TO THIS FORECAST WERE TO ADD SOME DETAIL TO
WEDNESDAY.  I DO NOT HAVE ANY POPS IN THE FORECAST GRIDS BEFORE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS VERY IMPRESSIVE OVER
THE ROCKIES AND MODELS HAVE SHIFTED THE RIDGE AXIS A BIT FURTHER
EAST SO THE SHORTWAVES PROGGED TO RIDE THE RIDGE WILL IMPACT AREAS
FURTHER EAST THUS MISSING THE NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.  WEDNESDAY REMAINS VERY INTERESTING AND MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE
VERY POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ATTENDANT FRONTAL PASSAGE NOW INTO THE
LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS.  THIS IS A LITTLE OUTSIDE PEAK HEATING
AND THE BEST INSTABILITY BUT THIS SYSTEM IS DYNAMIC AND SHEAR IS
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 55KTS.  IT STILL
LOOKS AS THOUGH A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...ESPECIALLY
NORTHWEST IN THAT LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PERIOD.  SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL HOWEVER LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE EURO AND
CANADIAN ARE HOLDING ON TO PRECIP EVEN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BUT THE
SYSTEM IS PRETTY PROGRESSIVE AND I DON`T SEE A BIG CHANCE FOR PRECIP
INTO THURSDAY MORNING EXCEPT FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST.  STILL WITH TWO
OUT OF THE THREE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SUGGESTING LINGERING
PRECIP...AND IN KEEPING WITH COLLABORATION OF OTHER OFFICES...I DID
KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES GOING ACROSS LOCATIONS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 20 INTO
THURSDAY BUT THIS WOULD BE MAINLY EARLY TO MID MORNING.

AS FOR TEMPS THROUGH MID WEEK...WE WILL BE VERY WARM WITH WEDNESDAY
LIKELY BEING THE WARMEST OF THE DAYS AS A STRONG SOUTHERLY/
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW GETS ESTABLISHED AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND
FRONT WHICH AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED...WILL NOW BE PASSING THROUGH
LATER IN THE DAY.  I DID NUDGE HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO HIGHER THAN
MODEL BLENDS WERE GIVING ME AND THIS MAY STILL BE TOO COOL.

AFTER THURSDAY...THE PATTERN GETS MESSY AND MODELS ARE NOT HANDLING
THINGS WELL.  YESTERDAY THEY HAD A PRETTY ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM
THAT WAS BRINGING PRECIP INTO THE REGION.  NOW THE CANADIAN IS THE
ONLY MODEL THAT IS REALLY KEEPING PRECIP GOING BUT MODEL BLENDS
STILL BLEND THE LAST RUNS POP/QPF INTO THIS RUN...WHICH IS WHY IT
WAS STILL GIVING ME CHANCE POPS.  FOR NOW I DID KNOCK POPS BACK BUT
DID NOT REMOVE IT COMPLETELY PRIMARILY BECAUSE IT WAS A BIG SHIFT
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT THAT HIGH THAT THE MODELS
CURRENT SOLUTION IS CORRECT.  DAY SHIFT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE
AND I WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK TONIGHT AND CONSIDER BIGGER CHANGES IF
THE DAY SHIFT HASN`T ALREADY AND MODELS ARE STILL POINTING TO A
FURTHER SOUTH SHIFT TO PRECIP.  THE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST
WILL BRING AN END TO THE 70 DEGREE READINGS THOUGH AND HIGHS WILL BE
BACK INTO THE 50S AND 60S...WHICH HAS BEEN CONSISTENT FROM THE PAST
FEW DAYS.

NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP REALLY DOESN`T COME UNTIL THE END OF THE
EXTENDED WHEN THE MODELS BRING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE STATE.
HOWEVER MOISTURE LOOKS A LITTLE CUT OFF AT THIS POINT SO I TOOK
ANY POPS OUT FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR/CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER
ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM TO PROGRESSION OF CURRENT DAKOTAS
ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH MAY BEGIN REACHING NW TAF SITES AROUND
08Z. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH/-SHRA WORDING AND GENERALLY STILL VFR
ALTHOUGH VSBYS OR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR AS WELL. BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS SERN SITES /KDSM/KALO/KOTM/. NO THUNDER MENTION AS
OF YET UNTIL TIMING AND LOCATION CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS WILL
PICK UP INTO THE MORNING AND INCREASE FURTHER WITH FROPA SUN.
GUSTS WILL OFTEN EXCEED 30KTS BY THEN...REACHING WELL INTO THE 30S
NORTH AND WEST UNTIL DIURNAL LOSS OF MIXING BY EARLY EVENING.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

WINDS WILL CERTAINLY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SPREAD FIRES RELATIVELY
QUICKLY TODAY WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
FRONT.  HOWEVER...RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES REMAIN FROM 30 TO 50
PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PRECLUDE A RED FLAG WARNING AT
THIS TIME.  WILL STILL HIGHLIGHT AN ENHANCED FIRE POTENTIAL IN THE
HWO AND POSSIBLY AN SPS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-
GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL
FIRE WEATHER...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 290506
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SHARP SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING QUICKLY IN ITS FOOTSTEPS. TOWARDS THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SET IN THIS EVENING. WAA WILL LIKEWISE COMMENCE ALOFT WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4 TO +4 C OVER DES MOINES BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL AID IN STABILIZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT
OR EVEN RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH A 850-700MB SHORTWAVE WILL BE
THE INSTIGATOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL IOWA
AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE NAM IN PARTICULAR DENOTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...SO LEFT OUT THUNDER
FOR THE TIME BEING. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST ARE
THREE-FOLD...INCLUDING WINDS ON SUNDAY...CONVECTION POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING CHANCE OF LIGHT QPF...LESS THAN 0.1 IN TOTAL ACROSS THE
CWA. NARROW RIBBON OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
CWA...MOSTLY EXITING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 1/3RD ONCE THEY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN DUE TO DEPARTING CLOUD COVER AND
INVERSION. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ACTUALLY MAX OUT JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...AS HIGH AS 60-70 KT BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB. INVERSION
WILL PREVENT FULL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE HOWEVER.
PRESENT THINKING IS THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE ALLOWED
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THUS WILL BEGIN THE WIND
ADVISORY AT THAT TIME AND CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z...AT WHICH POINT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND MIXING DECREASES. PACIFIC AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY WITH MAXES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NW AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM PASSAGE WITH
THE PACIFIC AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. H5 RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE ROCKIES TO OUR WEST. MODELS BRING A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT KEEP THE BEST FORCING AND QPF
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
DRY POPS DURING THAT TIME.

H5 SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY WILL
FLATTEN THE ROCKIES RIDGE...AND WILL BECOME REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO COLORADO. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HELP INCREASE WAA AND BRING SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
CWA...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. AM CONCERNED
THAT WEDNESDAY/S MAXES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN
TRENDS HOWEVER.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING ITS TIMING...WHICH AT THIS TIME WILL BE NEARLY OPTIMAL
TO MAXIMIZE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NORTHWEST CWA A LITTLE BEFORE 00Z THU AND EXIT A LITTLE
AFTER 06Z THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR TSRA...AND SHEAR ATTM APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A
RISK OF SEVERE WX. WILL NOT GET FOCUSED ON MODE ATTM HOWEVER...AS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING MODE SINCE IT IS
ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO TIMING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL HEATING. RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SEASONALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY...AT LEAST LOCALLY...WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...THE NEW
ECMWF IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF BROUGHT THE SFC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SEASONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...WHILE THE GFS KEPT IT
FARTHER SOUTH. DID NOT CHANGE THE GOING FCST MUCH DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTY. PACIFIC AIRMASS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH...HOWEVER...FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE IN THE
LIQUID PHASE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR/CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER
ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM TO PROGRESSION OF CURRENT DAKOTAS
ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH MAY BEGIN REACHING NW TAF SITES AROUND
08Z. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH/-SHRA WORDING AND GENERALLY STILL VFR
ALTHOUGH VSBYS OR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR AS WELL. BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS SERN SITES /KDSM/KALO/KOTM/. NO THUNDER MENTION AS
OF YET UNTIL TIMING AND LOCATION CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS WILL
PICK UP INTO THE MORNING AND INCREASE FURTHER WITH FROPA SUN.
GUSTS WILL OFTEN EXCEED 30KTS BY THEN...REACHING WELL INTO THE 30S
NORTH AND WEST UNTIL DIURNAL LOSS OF MIXING BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-
KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 290506
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SHARP SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING QUICKLY IN ITS FOOTSTEPS. TOWARDS THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SET IN THIS EVENING. WAA WILL LIKEWISE COMMENCE ALOFT WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4 TO +4 C OVER DES MOINES BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL AID IN STABILIZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT
OR EVEN RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH A 850-700MB SHORTWAVE WILL BE
THE INSTIGATOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL IOWA
AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE NAM IN PARTICULAR DENOTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...SO LEFT OUT THUNDER
FOR THE TIME BEING. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST ARE
THREE-FOLD...INCLUDING WINDS ON SUNDAY...CONVECTION POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING CHANCE OF LIGHT QPF...LESS THAN 0.1 IN TOTAL ACROSS THE
CWA. NARROW RIBBON OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
CWA...MOSTLY EXITING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 1/3RD ONCE THEY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN DUE TO DEPARTING CLOUD COVER AND
INVERSION. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ACTUALLY MAX OUT JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...AS HIGH AS 60-70 KT BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB. INVERSION
WILL PREVENT FULL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE HOWEVER.
PRESENT THINKING IS THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE ALLOWED
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THUS WILL BEGIN THE WIND
ADVISORY AT THAT TIME AND CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z...AT WHICH POINT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND MIXING DECREASES. PACIFIC AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY WITH MAXES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NW AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM PASSAGE WITH
THE PACIFIC AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. H5 RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE ROCKIES TO OUR WEST. MODELS BRING A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT KEEP THE BEST FORCING AND QPF
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
DRY POPS DURING THAT TIME.

H5 SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY WILL
FLATTEN THE ROCKIES RIDGE...AND WILL BECOME REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO COLORADO. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HELP INCREASE WAA AND BRING SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
CWA...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. AM CONCERNED
THAT WEDNESDAY/S MAXES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN
TRENDS HOWEVER.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING ITS TIMING...WHICH AT THIS TIME WILL BE NEARLY OPTIMAL
TO MAXIMIZE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NORTHWEST CWA A LITTLE BEFORE 00Z THU AND EXIT A LITTLE
AFTER 06Z THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR TSRA...AND SHEAR ATTM APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A
RISK OF SEVERE WX. WILL NOT GET FOCUSED ON MODE ATTM HOWEVER...AS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING MODE SINCE IT IS
ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO TIMING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL HEATING. RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SEASONALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY...AT LEAST LOCALLY...WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...THE NEW
ECMWF IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF BROUGHT THE SFC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SEASONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...WHILE THE GFS KEPT IT
FARTHER SOUTH. DID NOT CHANGE THE GOING FCST MUCH DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTY. PACIFIC AIRMASS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH...HOWEVER...FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE IN THE
LIQUID PHASE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR/CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER
ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM TO PROGRESSION OF CURRENT DAKOTAS
ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH MAY BEGIN REACHING NW TAF SITES AROUND
08Z. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH/-SHRA WORDING AND GENERALLY STILL VFR
ALTHOUGH VSBYS OR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR AS WELL. BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS SERN SITES /KDSM/KALO/KOTM/. NO THUNDER MENTION AS
OF YET UNTIL TIMING AND LOCATION CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS WILL
PICK UP INTO THE MORNING AND INCREASE FURTHER WITH FROPA SUN.
GUSTS WILL OFTEN EXCEED 30KTS BY THEN...REACHING WELL INTO THE 30S
NORTH AND WEST UNTIL DIURNAL LOSS OF MIXING BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-
KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 290506
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SHARP SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING QUICKLY IN ITS FOOTSTEPS. TOWARDS THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SET IN THIS EVENING. WAA WILL LIKEWISE COMMENCE ALOFT WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4 TO +4 C OVER DES MOINES BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL AID IN STABILIZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT
OR EVEN RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH A 850-700MB SHORTWAVE WILL BE
THE INSTIGATOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL IOWA
AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE NAM IN PARTICULAR DENOTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...SO LEFT OUT THUNDER
FOR THE TIME BEING. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST ARE
THREE-FOLD...INCLUDING WINDS ON SUNDAY...CONVECTION POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING CHANCE OF LIGHT QPF...LESS THAN 0.1 IN TOTAL ACROSS THE
CWA. NARROW RIBBON OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
CWA...MOSTLY EXITING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 1/3RD ONCE THEY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN DUE TO DEPARTING CLOUD COVER AND
INVERSION. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ACTUALLY MAX OUT JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...AS HIGH AS 60-70 KT BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB. INVERSION
WILL PREVENT FULL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE HOWEVER.
PRESENT THINKING IS THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE ALLOWED
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THUS WILL BEGIN THE WIND
ADVISORY AT THAT TIME AND CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z...AT WHICH POINT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND MIXING DECREASES. PACIFIC AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY WITH MAXES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NW AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM PASSAGE WITH
THE PACIFIC AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. H5 RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE ROCKIES TO OUR WEST. MODELS BRING A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT KEEP THE BEST FORCING AND QPF
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
DRY POPS DURING THAT TIME.

H5 SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY WILL
FLATTEN THE ROCKIES RIDGE...AND WILL BECOME REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO COLORADO. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HELP INCREASE WAA AND BRING SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
CWA...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. AM CONCERNED
THAT WEDNESDAY/S MAXES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN
TRENDS HOWEVER.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING ITS TIMING...WHICH AT THIS TIME WILL BE NEARLY OPTIMAL
TO MAXIMIZE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NORTHWEST CWA A LITTLE BEFORE 00Z THU AND EXIT A LITTLE
AFTER 06Z THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR TSRA...AND SHEAR ATTM APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A
RISK OF SEVERE WX. WILL NOT GET FOCUSED ON MODE ATTM HOWEVER...AS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING MODE SINCE IT IS
ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO TIMING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL HEATING. RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SEASONALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY...AT LEAST LOCALLY...WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...THE NEW
ECMWF IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF BROUGHT THE SFC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SEASONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...WHILE THE GFS KEPT IT
FARTHER SOUTH. DID NOT CHANGE THE GOING FCST MUCH DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTY. PACIFIC AIRMASS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH...HOWEVER...FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE IN THE
LIQUID PHASE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR/CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER
ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM TO PROGRESSION OF CURRENT DAKOTAS
ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH MAY BEGIN REACHING NW TAF SITES AROUND
08Z. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH/-SHRA WORDING AND GENERALLY STILL VFR
ALTHOUGH VSBYS OR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR AS WELL. BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS SERN SITES /KDSM/KALO/KOTM/. NO THUNDER MENTION AS
OF YET UNTIL TIMING AND LOCATION CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS WILL
PICK UP INTO THE MORNING AND INCREASE FURTHER WITH FROPA SUN.
GUSTS WILL OFTEN EXCEED 30KTS BY THEN...REACHING WELL INTO THE 30S
NORTH AND WEST UNTIL DIURNAL LOSS OF MIXING BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-
KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 290506
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1206 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SHARP SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING QUICKLY IN ITS FOOTSTEPS. TOWARDS THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SET IN THIS EVENING. WAA WILL LIKEWISE COMMENCE ALOFT WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4 TO +4 C OVER DES MOINES BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL AID IN STABILIZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT
OR EVEN RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH A 850-700MB SHORTWAVE WILL BE
THE INSTIGATOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL IOWA
AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE NAM IN PARTICULAR DENOTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...SO LEFT OUT THUNDER
FOR THE TIME BEING. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST ARE
THREE-FOLD...INCLUDING WINDS ON SUNDAY...CONVECTION POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING CHANCE OF LIGHT QPF...LESS THAN 0.1 IN TOTAL ACROSS THE
CWA. NARROW RIBBON OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
CWA...MOSTLY EXITING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 1/3RD ONCE THEY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN DUE TO DEPARTING CLOUD COVER AND
INVERSION. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ACTUALLY MAX OUT JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...AS HIGH AS 60-70 KT BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB. INVERSION
WILL PREVENT FULL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE HOWEVER.
PRESENT THINKING IS THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE ALLOWED
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THUS WILL BEGIN THE WIND
ADVISORY AT THAT TIME AND CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z...AT WHICH POINT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND MIXING DECREASES. PACIFIC AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY WITH MAXES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NW AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM PASSAGE WITH
THE PACIFIC AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. H5 RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE ROCKIES TO OUR WEST. MODELS BRING A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT KEEP THE BEST FORCING AND QPF
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
DRY POPS DURING THAT TIME.

H5 SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY WILL
FLATTEN THE ROCKIES RIDGE...AND WILL BECOME REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO COLORADO. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HELP INCREASE WAA AND BRING SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
CWA...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. AM CONCERNED
THAT WEDNESDAY/S MAXES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN
TRENDS HOWEVER.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING ITS TIMING...WHICH AT THIS TIME WILL BE NEARLY OPTIMAL
TO MAXIMIZE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NORTHWEST CWA A LITTLE BEFORE 00Z THU AND EXIT A LITTLE
AFTER 06Z THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR TSRA...AND SHEAR ATTM APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A
RISK OF SEVERE WX. WILL NOT GET FOCUSED ON MODE ATTM HOWEVER...AS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING MODE SINCE IT IS
ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO TIMING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL HEATING. RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SEASONALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY...AT LEAST LOCALLY...WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...THE NEW
ECMWF IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF BROUGHT THE SFC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SEASONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...WHILE THE GFS KEPT IT
FARTHER SOUTH. DID NOT CHANGE THE GOING FCST MUCH DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTY. PACIFIC AIRMASS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH...HOWEVER...FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE IN THE
LIQUID PHASE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/06Z
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT SUN MAR 29 2015

VFR/CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...HOWEVER
ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM TO PROGRESSION OF CURRENT DAKOTAS
ELEVATED CONVECTION WHICH MAY BEGIN REACHING NW TAF SITES AROUND
08Z. FOR NOW HAVE VCSH/-SHRA WORDING AND GENERALLY STILL VFR
ALTHOUGH VSBYS OR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR AS WELL. BETTER
CHANCES ACROSS SERN SITES /KDSM/KALO/KOTM/. NO THUNDER MENTION AS
OF YET UNTIL TIMING AND LOCATION CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WINDS WILL
PICK UP INTO THE MORNING AND INCREASE FURTHER WITH FROPA SUN.
GUSTS WILL OFTEN EXCEED 30KTS BY THEN...REACHING WELL INTO THE 30S
NORTH AND WEST UNTIL DIURNAL LOSS OF MIXING BY EARLY EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-
KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 282348
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SHARP SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING QUICKLY IN ITS FOOTSTEPS. TOWARDS THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SET IN THIS EVENING. WAA WILL LIKEWISE COMMENCE ALOFT WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4 TO +4 C OVER DES MOINES BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL AID IN STABILIZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT
OR EVEN RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH A 850-700MB SHORTWAVE WILL BE
THE INSTIGATOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL IOWA
AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE NAM IN PARTICULAR DENOTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...SO LEFT OUT THUNDER
FOR THE TIME BEING. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST ARE
THREE-FOLD...INCLUDING WINDS ON SUNDAY...CONVECTION POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING CHANCE OF LIGHT QPF...LESS THAN 0.1 IN TOTAL ACROSS THE
CWA. NARROW RIBBON OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
CWA...MOSTLY EXITING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 1/3RD ONCE THEY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN DUE TO DEPARTING CLOUD COVER AND
INVERSION. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ACTUALLY MAX OUT JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...AS HIGH AS 60-70 KT BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB. INVERSION
WILL PREVENT FULL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE HOWEVER.
PRESENT THINKING IS THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE ALLOWED
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THUS WILL BEGIN THE WIND
ADVISORY AT THAT TIME AND CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z...AT WHICH POINT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND MIXING DECREASES. PACIFIC AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY WITH MAXES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NW AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM PASSAGE WITH
THE PACIFIC AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. H5 RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE ROCKIES TO OUR WEST. MODELS BRING A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT KEEP THE BEST FORCING AND QPF
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
DRY POPS DURING THAT TIME.

H5 SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY WILL
FLATTEN THE ROCKIES RIDGE...AND WILL BECOME REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO COLORADO. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HELP INCREASE WAA AND BRING SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
CWA...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. AM CONCERNED
THAT WEDNESDAY/S MAXES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN
TRENDS HOWEVER.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING ITS TIMING...WHICH AT THIS TIME WILL BE NEARLY OPTIMAL
TO MAXIMIZE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NORTHWEST CWA A LITTLE BEFORE 00Z THU AND EXIT A LITTLE
AFTER 06Z THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR TSRA...AND SHEAR ATTM APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A
RISK OF SEVERE WX. WILL NOT GET FOCUSED ON MODE ATTM HOWEVER...AS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING MODE SINCE IT IS
ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO TIMING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL HEATING. RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SEASONALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY...AT LEAST LOCALLY...WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...THE NEW
ECMWF IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF BROUGHT THE SFC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SEASONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...WHILE THE GFS KEPT IT
FARTHER SOUTH. DID NOT CHANGE THE GOING FCST MUCH DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTY. PACIFIC AIRMASS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH...HOWEVER...FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE IN THE
LIQUID PHASE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR/CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER
ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM TO PROGRESSION OF CURRENT WRN
DAKOTAS CONVECTION WHICH WILL REACH IA IN SOME FORM EARLY SUN. FOR
NOW HAVE VCSH/-SHRA WORDING AND GENERALLY STILL VFR ALTHOUGH VSBYS
OR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR AS WELL. NO THUNDER MENTION AS OF
YET UNTIL TIMING AND LOCATION CONFIDENCE INCREASES BUT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT AND INCREASE EVEN
FURTHER WITH FROPA SUN. GUSTS WILL OFTEN EXCEED 30KTS BY
THEN...REACHING WELL INTO THE 30S NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 282348
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SHARP SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING QUICKLY IN ITS FOOTSTEPS. TOWARDS THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SET IN THIS EVENING. WAA WILL LIKEWISE COMMENCE ALOFT WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4 TO +4 C OVER DES MOINES BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL AID IN STABILIZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT
OR EVEN RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH A 850-700MB SHORTWAVE WILL BE
THE INSTIGATOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL IOWA
AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE NAM IN PARTICULAR DENOTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...SO LEFT OUT THUNDER
FOR THE TIME BEING. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST ARE
THREE-FOLD...INCLUDING WINDS ON SUNDAY...CONVECTION POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING CHANCE OF LIGHT QPF...LESS THAN 0.1 IN TOTAL ACROSS THE
CWA. NARROW RIBBON OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
CWA...MOSTLY EXITING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 1/3RD ONCE THEY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN DUE TO DEPARTING CLOUD COVER AND
INVERSION. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ACTUALLY MAX OUT JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...AS HIGH AS 60-70 KT BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB. INVERSION
WILL PREVENT FULL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE HOWEVER.
PRESENT THINKING IS THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE ALLOWED
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THUS WILL BEGIN THE WIND
ADVISORY AT THAT TIME AND CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z...AT WHICH POINT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND MIXING DECREASES. PACIFIC AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY WITH MAXES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NW AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM PASSAGE WITH
THE PACIFIC AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. H5 RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE ROCKIES TO OUR WEST. MODELS BRING A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT KEEP THE BEST FORCING AND QPF
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
DRY POPS DURING THAT TIME.

H5 SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY WILL
FLATTEN THE ROCKIES RIDGE...AND WILL BECOME REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO COLORADO. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HELP INCREASE WAA AND BRING SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
CWA...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. AM CONCERNED
THAT WEDNESDAY/S MAXES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN
TRENDS HOWEVER.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING ITS TIMING...WHICH AT THIS TIME WILL BE NEARLY OPTIMAL
TO MAXIMIZE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NORTHWEST CWA A LITTLE BEFORE 00Z THU AND EXIT A LITTLE
AFTER 06Z THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR TSRA...AND SHEAR ATTM APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A
RISK OF SEVERE WX. WILL NOT GET FOCUSED ON MODE ATTM HOWEVER...AS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING MODE SINCE IT IS
ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO TIMING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL HEATING. RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SEASONALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY...AT LEAST LOCALLY...WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...THE NEW
ECMWF IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF BROUGHT THE SFC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SEASONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...WHILE THE GFS KEPT IT
FARTHER SOUTH. DID NOT CHANGE THE GOING FCST MUCH DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTY. PACIFIC AIRMASS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH...HOWEVER...FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE IN THE
LIQUID PHASE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR/CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER
ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM TO PROGRESSION OF CURRENT WRN
DAKOTAS CONVECTION WHICH WILL REACH IA IN SOME FORM EARLY SUN. FOR
NOW HAVE VCSH/-SHRA WORDING AND GENERALLY STILL VFR ALTHOUGH VSBYS
OR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR AS WELL. NO THUNDER MENTION AS OF
YET UNTIL TIMING AND LOCATION CONFIDENCE INCREASES BUT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT AND INCREASE EVEN
FURTHER WITH FROPA SUN. GUSTS WILL OFTEN EXCEED 30KTS BY
THEN...REACHING WELL INTO THE 30S NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 282348
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SHARP SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING QUICKLY IN ITS FOOTSTEPS. TOWARDS THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SET IN THIS EVENING. WAA WILL LIKEWISE COMMENCE ALOFT WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4 TO +4 C OVER DES MOINES BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL AID IN STABILIZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT
OR EVEN RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH A 850-700MB SHORTWAVE WILL BE
THE INSTIGATOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL IOWA
AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE NAM IN PARTICULAR DENOTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...SO LEFT OUT THUNDER
FOR THE TIME BEING. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST ARE
THREE-FOLD...INCLUDING WINDS ON SUNDAY...CONVECTION POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING CHANCE OF LIGHT QPF...LESS THAN 0.1 IN TOTAL ACROSS THE
CWA. NARROW RIBBON OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
CWA...MOSTLY EXITING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 1/3RD ONCE THEY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN DUE TO DEPARTING CLOUD COVER AND
INVERSION. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ACTUALLY MAX OUT JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...AS HIGH AS 60-70 KT BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB. INVERSION
WILL PREVENT FULL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE HOWEVER.
PRESENT THINKING IS THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE ALLOWED
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THUS WILL BEGIN THE WIND
ADVISORY AT THAT TIME AND CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z...AT WHICH POINT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND MIXING DECREASES. PACIFIC AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY WITH MAXES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NW AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM PASSAGE WITH
THE PACIFIC AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. H5 RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE ROCKIES TO OUR WEST. MODELS BRING A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT KEEP THE BEST FORCING AND QPF
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
DRY POPS DURING THAT TIME.

H5 SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY WILL
FLATTEN THE ROCKIES RIDGE...AND WILL BECOME REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO COLORADO. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HELP INCREASE WAA AND BRING SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
CWA...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. AM CONCERNED
THAT WEDNESDAY/S MAXES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN
TRENDS HOWEVER.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING ITS TIMING...WHICH AT THIS TIME WILL BE NEARLY OPTIMAL
TO MAXIMIZE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NORTHWEST CWA A LITTLE BEFORE 00Z THU AND EXIT A LITTLE
AFTER 06Z THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR TSRA...AND SHEAR ATTM APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A
RISK OF SEVERE WX. WILL NOT GET FOCUSED ON MODE ATTM HOWEVER...AS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING MODE SINCE IT IS
ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO TIMING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL HEATING. RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SEASONALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY...AT LEAST LOCALLY...WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...THE NEW
ECMWF IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF BROUGHT THE SFC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SEASONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...WHILE THE GFS KEPT IT
FARTHER SOUTH. DID NOT CHANGE THE GOING FCST MUCH DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTY. PACIFIC AIRMASS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH...HOWEVER...FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE IN THE
LIQUID PHASE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR/CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER
ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM TO PROGRESSION OF CURRENT WRN
DAKOTAS CONVECTION WHICH WILL REACH IA IN SOME FORM EARLY SUN. FOR
NOW HAVE VCSH/-SHRA WORDING AND GENERALLY STILL VFR ALTHOUGH VSBYS
OR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR AS WELL. NO THUNDER MENTION AS OF
YET UNTIL TIMING AND LOCATION CONFIDENCE INCREASES BUT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT AND INCREASE EVEN
FURTHER WITH FROPA SUN. GUSTS WILL OFTEN EXCEED 30KTS BY
THEN...REACHING WELL INTO THE 30S NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 282348
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SHARP SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING QUICKLY IN ITS FOOTSTEPS. TOWARDS THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SET IN THIS EVENING. WAA WILL LIKEWISE COMMENCE ALOFT WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4 TO +4 C OVER DES MOINES BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL AID IN STABILIZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT
OR EVEN RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH A 850-700MB SHORTWAVE WILL BE
THE INSTIGATOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL IOWA
AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE NAM IN PARTICULAR DENOTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...SO LEFT OUT THUNDER
FOR THE TIME BEING. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST ARE
THREE-FOLD...INCLUDING WINDS ON SUNDAY...CONVECTION POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING CHANCE OF LIGHT QPF...LESS THAN 0.1 IN TOTAL ACROSS THE
CWA. NARROW RIBBON OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
CWA...MOSTLY EXITING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 1/3RD ONCE THEY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN DUE TO DEPARTING CLOUD COVER AND
INVERSION. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ACTUALLY MAX OUT JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...AS HIGH AS 60-70 KT BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB. INVERSION
WILL PREVENT FULL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE HOWEVER.
PRESENT THINKING IS THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE ALLOWED
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THUS WILL BEGIN THE WIND
ADVISORY AT THAT TIME AND CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z...AT WHICH POINT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND MIXING DECREASES. PACIFIC AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY WITH MAXES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NW AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM PASSAGE WITH
THE PACIFIC AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. H5 RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE ROCKIES TO OUR WEST. MODELS BRING A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT KEEP THE BEST FORCING AND QPF
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
DRY POPS DURING THAT TIME.

H5 SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY WILL
FLATTEN THE ROCKIES RIDGE...AND WILL BECOME REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO COLORADO. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HELP INCREASE WAA AND BRING SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
CWA...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. AM CONCERNED
THAT WEDNESDAY/S MAXES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN
TRENDS HOWEVER.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING ITS TIMING...WHICH AT THIS TIME WILL BE NEARLY OPTIMAL
TO MAXIMIZE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NORTHWEST CWA A LITTLE BEFORE 00Z THU AND EXIT A LITTLE
AFTER 06Z THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR TSRA...AND SHEAR ATTM APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A
RISK OF SEVERE WX. WILL NOT GET FOCUSED ON MODE ATTM HOWEVER...AS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING MODE SINCE IT IS
ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO TIMING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL HEATING. RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SEASONALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY...AT LEAST LOCALLY...WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...THE NEW
ECMWF IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF BROUGHT THE SFC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SEASONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...WHILE THE GFS KEPT IT
FARTHER SOUTH. DID NOT CHANGE THE GOING FCST MUCH DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTY. PACIFIC AIRMASS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH...HOWEVER...FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE IN THE
LIQUID PHASE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/00Z
ISSUED AT 648 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR/CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE EVENING...HOWEVER
ATTENTION WILL TURN UPSTREAM TO PROGRESSION OF CURRENT WRN
DAKOTAS CONVECTION WHICH WILL REACH IA IN SOME FORM EARLY SUN. FOR
NOW HAVE VCSH/-SHRA WORDING AND GENERALLY STILL VFR ALTHOUGH VSBYS
OR CIGS MAY BRIEFLY TOUCH MVFR AS WELL. NO THUNDER MENTION AS OF
YET UNTIL TIMING AND LOCATION CONFIDENCE INCREASES BUT IS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL PICK UP TONIGHT AND INCREASE EVEN
FURTHER WITH FROPA SUN. GUSTS WILL OFTEN EXCEED 30KTS BY
THEN...REACHING WELL INTO THE 30S NORTH AND WEST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 282038
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SHARP SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING QUICKLY IN ITS FOOTSTEPS. TOWARDS THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SET IN THIS EVENING. WAA WILL LIKEWISE COMMENCE ALOFT WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4 TO +4 C OVER DES MOINES BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL AID IN STABILIZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT
OR EVEN RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH A 850-700MB SHORTWAVE WILL BE
THE INSTIGATOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL IOWA
AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE NAM IN PARTICULAR DENOTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...SO LEFT OUT THUNDER
FOR THE TIME BEING. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST ARE
THREE-FOLD...INCLUDING WINDS ON SUNDAY...CONVECTION POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING CHANCE OF LIGHT QPF...LESS THAN 0.1 IN TOTAL ACROSS THE
CWA. NARROW RIBBON OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
CWA...MOSTLY EXITING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 1/3RD ONCE THEY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN DUE TO DEPARTING CLOUD COVER AND
INVERSION. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ACTUALLY MAX OUT JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...AS HIGH AS 60-70 KT BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB. INVERSION
WILL PREVENT FULL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE HOWEVER.
PRESENT THINKING IS THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE ALLOWED
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THUS WILL BEGIN THE WIND
ADVISORY AT THAT TIME AND CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z...AT WHICH POINT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND MIXING DECREASES. PACIFIC AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY WITH MAXES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NW AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM PASSAGE WITH
THE PACIFIC AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. H5 RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE ROCKIES TO OUR WEST. MODELS BRING A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT KEEP THE BEST FORCING AND QPF
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
DRY POPS DURING THAT TIME.

H5 SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY WILL
FLATTEN THE ROCKIES RIDGE...AND WILL BECOME REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO COLORADO. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HELP INCREASE WAA AND BRING SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
CWA...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. AM CONCERNED
THAT WEDNESDAY/S MAXES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN
TRENDS HOWEVER.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING ITS TIMING...WHICH AT THIS TIME WILL BE NEARLY OPTIMAL
TO MAXIMIZE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NORTHWEST CWA A LITTLE BEFORE 00Z THU AND EXIT A LITTLE
AFTER 06Z THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR TSRA...AND SHEAR ATTM APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A
RISK OF SEVERE WX. WILL NOT GET FOCUSED ON MODE ATTM HOWEVER...AS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING MODE SINCE IT IS
ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO TIMING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL HEATING. RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SEASONALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY...AT LEAST LOCALLY...WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...THE NEW
ECMWF IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF BROUGHT THE SFC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SEASONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...WHILE THE GFS KEPT IT
FARTHER SOUTH. DID NOT CHANGE THE GOING FCST MUCH DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTY. PACIFIC AIRMASS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH...HOWEVER...FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE IN THE
LIQUID PHASE.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE
STATE. CEILINGS MAY DROP BELOW VFR AT TIMES DURING THESE STORMS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...SKOW




000
FXUS63 KDMX 282038
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SHARP SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING QUICKLY IN ITS FOOTSTEPS. TOWARDS THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SET IN THIS EVENING. WAA WILL LIKEWISE COMMENCE ALOFT WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4 TO +4 C OVER DES MOINES BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL AID IN STABILIZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT
OR EVEN RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH A 850-700MB SHORTWAVE WILL BE
THE INSTIGATOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL IOWA
AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE NAM IN PARTICULAR DENOTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...SO LEFT OUT THUNDER
FOR THE TIME BEING. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST ARE
THREE-FOLD...INCLUDING WINDS ON SUNDAY...CONVECTION POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING CHANCE OF LIGHT QPF...LESS THAN 0.1 IN TOTAL ACROSS THE
CWA. NARROW RIBBON OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
CWA...MOSTLY EXITING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 1/3RD ONCE THEY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN DUE TO DEPARTING CLOUD COVER AND
INVERSION. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ACTUALLY MAX OUT JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...AS HIGH AS 60-70 KT BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB. INVERSION
WILL PREVENT FULL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE HOWEVER.
PRESENT THINKING IS THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE ALLOWED
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THUS WILL BEGIN THE WIND
ADVISORY AT THAT TIME AND CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z...AT WHICH POINT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND MIXING DECREASES. PACIFIC AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY WITH MAXES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NW AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM PASSAGE WITH
THE PACIFIC AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. H5 RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE ROCKIES TO OUR WEST. MODELS BRING A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT KEEP THE BEST FORCING AND QPF
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
DRY POPS DURING THAT TIME.

H5 SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY WILL
FLATTEN THE ROCKIES RIDGE...AND WILL BECOME REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO COLORADO. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HELP INCREASE WAA AND BRING SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
CWA...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. AM CONCERNED
THAT WEDNESDAY/S MAXES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN
TRENDS HOWEVER.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING ITS TIMING...WHICH AT THIS TIME WILL BE NEARLY OPTIMAL
TO MAXIMIZE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NORTHWEST CWA A LITTLE BEFORE 00Z THU AND EXIT A LITTLE
AFTER 06Z THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR TSRA...AND SHEAR ATTM APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A
RISK OF SEVERE WX. WILL NOT GET FOCUSED ON MODE ATTM HOWEVER...AS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING MODE SINCE IT IS
ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO TIMING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL HEATING. RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SEASONALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY...AT LEAST LOCALLY...WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...THE NEW
ECMWF IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF BROUGHT THE SFC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SEASONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...WHILE THE GFS KEPT IT
FARTHER SOUTH. DID NOT CHANGE THE GOING FCST MUCH DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTY. PACIFIC AIRMASS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH...HOWEVER...FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE IN THE
LIQUID PHASE.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE
STATE. CEILINGS MAY DROP BELOW VFR AT TIMES DURING THESE STORMS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...SKOW





000
FXUS63 KDMX 282038
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SHARP SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING QUICKLY IN ITS FOOTSTEPS. TOWARDS THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SET IN THIS EVENING. WAA WILL LIKEWISE COMMENCE ALOFT WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4 TO +4 C OVER DES MOINES BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL AID IN STABILIZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT
OR EVEN RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH A 850-700MB SHORTWAVE WILL BE
THE INSTIGATOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL IOWA
AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE NAM IN PARTICULAR DENOTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...SO LEFT OUT THUNDER
FOR THE TIME BEING. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST ARE
THREE-FOLD...INCLUDING WINDS ON SUNDAY...CONVECTION POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING CHANCE OF LIGHT QPF...LESS THAN 0.1 IN TOTAL ACROSS THE
CWA. NARROW RIBBON OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
CWA...MOSTLY EXITING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 1/3RD ONCE THEY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN DUE TO DEPARTING CLOUD COVER AND
INVERSION. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ACTUALLY MAX OUT JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...AS HIGH AS 60-70 KT BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB. INVERSION
WILL PREVENT FULL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE HOWEVER.
PRESENT THINKING IS THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE ALLOWED
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THUS WILL BEGIN THE WIND
ADVISORY AT THAT TIME AND CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z...AT WHICH POINT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND MIXING DECREASES. PACIFIC AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY WITH MAXES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NW AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM PASSAGE WITH
THE PACIFIC AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. H5 RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE ROCKIES TO OUR WEST. MODELS BRING A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT KEEP THE BEST FORCING AND QPF
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
DRY POPS DURING THAT TIME.

H5 SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY WILL
FLATTEN THE ROCKIES RIDGE...AND WILL BECOME REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO COLORADO. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HELP INCREASE WAA AND BRING SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
CWA...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. AM CONCERNED
THAT WEDNESDAY/S MAXES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN
TRENDS HOWEVER.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING ITS TIMING...WHICH AT THIS TIME WILL BE NEARLY OPTIMAL
TO MAXIMIZE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NORTHWEST CWA A LITTLE BEFORE 00Z THU AND EXIT A LITTLE
AFTER 06Z THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR TSRA...AND SHEAR ATTM APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A
RISK OF SEVERE WX. WILL NOT GET FOCUSED ON MODE ATTM HOWEVER...AS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING MODE SINCE IT IS
ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO TIMING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL HEATING. RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SEASONALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY...AT LEAST LOCALLY...WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...THE NEW
ECMWF IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF BROUGHT THE SFC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SEASONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...WHILE THE GFS KEPT IT
FARTHER SOUTH. DID NOT CHANGE THE GOING FCST MUCH DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTY. PACIFIC AIRMASS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH...HOWEVER...FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE IN THE
LIQUID PHASE.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE
STATE. CEILINGS MAY DROP BELOW VFR AT TIMES DURING THESE STORMS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...SKOW




000
FXUS63 KDMX 282038
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AMPLIFIED YET PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTING ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...WITH A SHARP SHORTWAVE
FOLLOWING QUICKLY IN ITS FOOTSTEPS. TOWARDS THE SURFACE...HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT AND ALLOW SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW TO
SET IN THIS EVENING. WAA WILL LIKEWISE COMMENCE ALOFT WITH 850MB
TEMPS RISING FROM -4 TO +4 C OVER DES MOINES BETWEEN 00Z AND 12Z
SUNDAY. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE STATE OUT AHEAD OF
THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL AID IN STABILIZING TEMPS OVERNIGHT
OR EVEN RESULT IN A SLOW WARMING TREND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

MID-LEVEL FORCING IN TANDEM WITH A 850-700MB SHORTWAVE WILL BE
THE INSTIGATOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER CENTRAL IOWA
AFTER 08Z TONIGHT. CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH
THE NAM IN PARTICULAR DENOTING MUCAPE VALUES OF 100-300 J/KG OUT
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. MOST OTHER SOLUTIONS SHOW LITTLE TO NO
ELEVATED INSTABILITY OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...SO LEFT OUT THUNDER
FOR THE TIME BEING. QPF AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT GIVEN THE
TRANSIENT NATURE OF THE SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST ARE
THREE-FOLD...INCLUDING WINDS ON SUNDAY...CONVECTION POTENTIAL ON
WEDNESDAY AND PRECIP POTENTIAL LATE IN THE WEEK.

PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM SWINGING THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY WILL
BRING CHANCE OF LIGHT QPF...LESS THAN 0.1 IN TOTAL ACROSS THE
CWA. NARROW RIBBON OF FORCING WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
CWA...MOSTLY EXITING THE CWA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. WINDS ABOVE THE
SURFACE WILL BE IMPRESSIVE...AND WILL REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN 1/3RD ONCE THEY MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
QUESTION IS EXACTLY WHEN DUE TO DEPARTING CLOUD COVER AND
INVERSION. WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE ACTUALLY MAX OUT JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE...AS HIGH AS 60-70 KT BETWEEN 850 AND 750 MB. INVERSION
WILL PREVENT FULL MOMENTUM TRANSFER TO THE SURFACE HOWEVER.
PRESENT THINKING IS THAT ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS WILL BE ALLOWED
TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE BEGINNING AROUND 15Z IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND THEN PROGRESSING EASTWARD. THUS WILL BEGIN THE WIND
ADVISORY AT THAT TIME AND CONTINUE THROUGH 22Z...AT WHICH POINT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND MIXING DECREASES. PACIFIC AIR
MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN MILD TEMPERATURES DURING THE
DAY WITH MAXES IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NW AFTER THE SUNDAY SYSTEM PASSAGE WITH
THE PACIFIC AIR MASS IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE. H5 RIDGE WILL
DOMINATE THE ROCKIES TO OUR WEST. MODELS BRING A CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHERN DAKOTAS INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BUT KEEP THE BEST FORCING AND QPF
NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA. THUS WILL CONTINUE THE TREND OF
DRY POPS DURING THAT TIME.

H5 SHORTWAVE COMING ON SHORE IN THE PACIFIC NW TUESDAY WILL
FLATTEN THE ROCKIES RIDGE...AND WILL BECOME REFLECTED AT THE
SURFACE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BY WEDNESDAY MORNING EXTENDING
FROM THE DAKOTAS INTO COLORADO. INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
HELP INCREASE WAA AND BRING SEASONALLY WARM TEMPERATURES INTO THE
CWA...WITH HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY IN THE 60S AND 70S. AM CONCERNED
THAT WEDNESDAY/S MAXES MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH GIVEN RUN-TO-RUN
TRENDS HOWEVER.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT
REGARDING ITS TIMING...WHICH AT THIS TIME WILL BE NEARLY OPTIMAL
TO MAXIMIZE THUNDER POTENTIAL FOR THE CWA. FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
ENTER THE NORTHWEST CWA A LITTLE BEFORE 00Z THU AND EXIT A LITTLE
AFTER 06Z THU. MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT IN ADVERTISING ENOUGH
INSTABILITY FOR TSRA...AND SHEAR ATTM APPEARS SUFFICIENT FOR A
RISK OF SEVERE WX. WILL NOT GET FOCUSED ON MODE ATTM HOWEVER...AS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING MODE SINCE IT IS
ESPECIALLY SENSITIVE TO TIMING THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH RESPECT TO
DIURNAL HEATING. RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE SEASONALLY MODERATE TO
HEAVY...AT LEAST LOCALLY...WITH THIS SYSTEM.

ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER THE MID-WEEK SYSTEM...THE NEW
ECMWF IS COMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS...WHICH HAS BEEN
ADVERTISING AN ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM LATE IN THE WEEK.
PREVIOUS RUN OF THE ECMWF BROUGHT THE SFC SYSTEM ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SEASONALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY QPF...WHILE THE GFS KEPT IT
FARTHER SOUTH. DID NOT CHANGE THE GOING FCST MUCH DURING THIS TIME
DUE TO REMAINING UNCERTAINTY. PACIFIC AIRMASS TEMPS ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN WARM ENOUGH...HOWEVER...FOR ANY PRECIP TO BE IN THE
LIQUID PHASE.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE
STATE. CEILINGS MAY DROP BELOW VFR AT TIMES DURING THESE STORMS.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM CDT SUNDAY FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-
POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...SKOW





000
FXUS63 KDMX 281750
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1250 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER JET MAX AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES EXPECTED WEST OF I35...PRIMARILY BEFORE
SUNRISE.  WILL SEE DECENT HEIGHT RISES TODAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE.  INITIALLY...LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL...HOWEVER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SUNSHINE
REAPPEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE WEST SEEING THE BEST REBOUND AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL TRENDS OF THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM REMAIN UNCHANGED.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ABOUT INSTABILITY AND THUNDER POTENTIAL
AND ALSO SOME TIMING ISSUES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BREAKDOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IN PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE
INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS BUT THEY ARE BOTH WEAK IN THE 0-6KM LAYER
WITH NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER BUT IT WOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED AND MY CONFIDENCE IN IT
OCCURRING OVER A GIVEN AREA WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT BUT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD PROBABLY HAPPEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT.  SOUNDINGS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME WITH DEEPER SATURATION WITH THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD FROM ABOUT 09Z UNTIL 12-15Z SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OUT
OF THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF QPF EITHER.  WINDS ALOFT ARE PRETTY
STRONG AND WITH MIXING WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AROUND 35 MPH SO SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AND WARMER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.  THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR
FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING SOME PRECIP AND RH VALUES
DIP INTO THE MID 30S FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NOT
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HOIST HEADLINES...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WITH THE EURO
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IT AND THE GFS AND SREF KEEPING ANY
PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  I KEPT THE CWA DRY ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS EACH DAY.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL GET ADVECTED INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DECENT INSTABILITY.  LOW LEVEL
FORCING LOOKS DECENT THOUGH THE MID LEVEL FORCING IS WEAKER AND
ARRIVES LATER.  HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE DOES ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SO I DID LEAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A MORE BROAD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WAVE BUT THIS WAVE LACKS THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY OF
THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM SO I ONLY HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED WITH THAT.
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME
SO HIGHS ARE BACK INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY AND I DID NUDGE HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WE HAD.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST TRIES TO REBUILD NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE EURO
AND GFS VARY AS TO THE DEGREE THAT OCCURS AND THE HANDLING OF ANY
SHORTWAVES.  THAT FAR OUT I KEPT THE PERIOD DRY THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A NEED TO ADD POPS AT SOME POINT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE.  HIGHS WARM A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH READINGS BACK IN
THE 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.
CEILINGS MAY DROP BELOW VFR AT TIMES DURING THESE STORMS. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SKOW




000
FXUS63 KDMX 281750
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1250 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER JET MAX AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES EXPECTED WEST OF I35...PRIMARILY BEFORE
SUNRISE.  WILL SEE DECENT HEIGHT RISES TODAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE.  INITIALLY...LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL...HOWEVER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SUNSHINE
REAPPEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE WEST SEEING THE BEST REBOUND AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL TRENDS OF THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM REMAIN UNCHANGED.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ABOUT INSTABILITY AND THUNDER POTENTIAL
AND ALSO SOME TIMING ISSUES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BREAKDOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IN PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE
INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS BUT THEY ARE BOTH WEAK IN THE 0-6KM LAYER
WITH NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER BUT IT WOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED AND MY CONFIDENCE IN IT
OCCURRING OVER A GIVEN AREA WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT BUT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD PROBABLY HAPPEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT.  SOUNDINGS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME WITH DEEPER SATURATION WITH THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD FROM ABOUT 09Z UNTIL 12-15Z SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OUT
OF THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF QPF EITHER.  WINDS ALOFT ARE PRETTY
STRONG AND WITH MIXING WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AROUND 35 MPH SO SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AND WARMER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.  THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR
FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING SOME PRECIP AND RH VALUES
DIP INTO THE MID 30S FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NOT
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HOIST HEADLINES...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WITH THE EURO
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IT AND THE GFS AND SREF KEEPING ANY
PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  I KEPT THE CWA DRY ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS EACH DAY.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL GET ADVECTED INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DECENT INSTABILITY.  LOW LEVEL
FORCING LOOKS DECENT THOUGH THE MID LEVEL FORCING IS WEAKER AND
ARRIVES LATER.  HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE DOES ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SO I DID LEAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A MORE BROAD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WAVE BUT THIS WAVE LACKS THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY OF
THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM SO I ONLY HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED WITH THAT.
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME
SO HIGHS ARE BACK INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY AND I DID NUDGE HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WE HAD.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST TRIES TO REBUILD NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE EURO
AND GFS VARY AS TO THE DEGREE THAT OCCURS AND THE HANDLING OF ANY
SHORTWAVES.  THAT FAR OUT I KEPT THE PERIOD DRY THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A NEED TO ADD POPS AT SOME POINT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE.  HIGHS WARM A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH READINGS BACK IN
THE 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.
CEILINGS MAY DROP BELOW VFR AT TIMES DURING THESE STORMS. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SKOW





000
FXUS63 KDMX 281750
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1250 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER JET MAX AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES EXPECTED WEST OF I35...PRIMARILY BEFORE
SUNRISE.  WILL SEE DECENT HEIGHT RISES TODAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE.  INITIALLY...LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL...HOWEVER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SUNSHINE
REAPPEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE WEST SEEING THE BEST REBOUND AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL TRENDS OF THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM REMAIN UNCHANGED.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ABOUT INSTABILITY AND THUNDER POTENTIAL
AND ALSO SOME TIMING ISSUES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BREAKDOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IN PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE
INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS BUT THEY ARE BOTH WEAK IN THE 0-6KM LAYER
WITH NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER BUT IT WOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED AND MY CONFIDENCE IN IT
OCCURRING OVER A GIVEN AREA WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT BUT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD PROBABLY HAPPEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT.  SOUNDINGS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME WITH DEEPER SATURATION WITH THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD FROM ABOUT 09Z UNTIL 12-15Z SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OUT
OF THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF QPF EITHER.  WINDS ALOFT ARE PRETTY
STRONG AND WITH MIXING WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AROUND 35 MPH SO SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AND WARMER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.  THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR
FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING SOME PRECIP AND RH VALUES
DIP INTO THE MID 30S FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NOT
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HOIST HEADLINES...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WITH THE EURO
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IT AND THE GFS AND SREF KEEPING ANY
PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  I KEPT THE CWA DRY ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS EACH DAY.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL GET ADVECTED INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DECENT INSTABILITY.  LOW LEVEL
FORCING LOOKS DECENT THOUGH THE MID LEVEL FORCING IS WEAKER AND
ARRIVES LATER.  HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE DOES ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SO I DID LEAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A MORE BROAD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WAVE BUT THIS WAVE LACKS THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY OF
THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM SO I ONLY HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED WITH THAT.
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME
SO HIGHS ARE BACK INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY AND I DID NUDGE HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WE HAD.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST TRIES TO REBUILD NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE EURO
AND GFS VARY AS TO THE DEGREE THAT OCCURS AND THE HANDLING OF ANY
SHORTWAVES.  THAT FAR OUT I KEPT THE PERIOD DRY THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A NEED TO ADD POPS AT SOME POINT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE.  HIGHS WARM A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH READINGS BACK IN
THE 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.
CEILINGS MAY DROP BELOW VFR AT TIMES DURING THESE STORMS. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SKOW





000
FXUS63 KDMX 281750
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1250 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER JET MAX AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES EXPECTED WEST OF I35...PRIMARILY BEFORE
SUNRISE.  WILL SEE DECENT HEIGHT RISES TODAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE.  INITIALLY...LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL...HOWEVER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SUNSHINE
REAPPEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE WEST SEEING THE BEST REBOUND AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL TRENDS OF THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM REMAIN UNCHANGED.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ABOUT INSTABILITY AND THUNDER POTENTIAL
AND ALSO SOME TIMING ISSUES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BREAKDOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IN PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE
INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS BUT THEY ARE BOTH WEAK IN THE 0-6KM LAYER
WITH NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER BUT IT WOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED AND MY CONFIDENCE IN IT
OCCURRING OVER A GIVEN AREA WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT BUT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD PROBABLY HAPPEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT.  SOUNDINGS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME WITH DEEPER SATURATION WITH THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD FROM ABOUT 09Z UNTIL 12-15Z SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OUT
OF THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF QPF EITHER.  WINDS ALOFT ARE PRETTY
STRONG AND WITH MIXING WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AROUND 35 MPH SO SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AND WARMER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.  THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR
FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING SOME PRECIP AND RH VALUES
DIP INTO THE MID 30S FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NOT
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HOIST HEADLINES...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WITH THE EURO
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IT AND THE GFS AND SREF KEEPING ANY
PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  I KEPT THE CWA DRY ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS EACH DAY.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL GET ADVECTED INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DECENT INSTABILITY.  LOW LEVEL
FORCING LOOKS DECENT THOUGH THE MID LEVEL FORCING IS WEAKER AND
ARRIVES LATER.  HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE DOES ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SO I DID LEAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A MORE BROAD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WAVE BUT THIS WAVE LACKS THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY OF
THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM SO I ONLY HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED WITH THAT.
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME
SO HIGHS ARE BACK INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY AND I DID NUDGE HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WE HAD.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST TRIES TO REBUILD NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE EURO
AND GFS VARY AS TO THE DEGREE THAT OCCURS AND THE HANDLING OF ANY
SHORTWAVES.  THAT FAR OUT I KEPT THE PERIOD DRY THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A NEED TO ADD POPS AT SOME POINT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE.  HIGHS WARM A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH READINGS BACK IN
THE 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/18Z
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE DAY WITH SOUTH TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS WITH A FEW HIGHER
GUSTS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM ARE EXPECTED
BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY PASSES THROUGH THE STATE.
CEILINGS MAY DROP BELOW VFR AT TIMES DURING THESE STORMS. WINDS
WILL ALSO INCREASE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SKOW




000
FXUS63 KDMX 281209
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
709 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER JET MAX AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES EXPECTED WEST OF I35...PRIMARILY BEFORE
SUNRISE.  WILL SEE DECENT HEIGHT RISES TODAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE.  INITIALLY...LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL...HOWEVER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SUNSHINE
REAPPEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE WEST SEEING THE BEST REBOUND AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL TRENDS OF THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM REMAIN UNCHANGED.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ABOUT INSTABILITY AND THUNDER POTENTIAL
AND ALSO SOME TIMING ISSUES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BREAKDOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IN PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE
INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS BUT THEY ARE BOTH WEAK IN THE 0-6KM LAYER
WITH NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER BUT IT WOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED AND MY CONFIDENCE IN IT
OCCURRING OVER A GIVEN AREA WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT BUT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD PROBABLY HAPPEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT.  SOUNDINGS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME WITH DEEPER SATURATION WITH THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD FROM ABOUT 09Z UNTIL 12-15Z SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OUT
OF THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF QPF EITHER.  WINDS ALOFT ARE PRETTY
STRONG AND WITH MIXING WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AROUND 35 MPH SO SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AND WARMER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.  THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR
FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING SOME PRECIP AND RH VALUES
DIP INTO THE MID 30S FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NOT
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HOIST HEADLINES...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WITH THE EURO
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IT AND THE GFS AND SREF KEEPING ANY
PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  I KEPT THE CWA DRY ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS EACH DAY.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL GET ADVECTED INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DECENT INSTABILITY.  LOW LEVEL
FORCING LOOKS DECENT THOUGH THE MID LEVEL FORCING IS WEAKER AND
ARRIVES LATER.  HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE DOES ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SO I DID LEAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A MORE BROAD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WAVE BUT THIS WAVE LACKS THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY OF
THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM SO I ONLY HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED WITH THAT.
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME
SO HIGHS ARE BACK INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY AND I DID NUDGE HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WE HAD.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST TRIES TO REBUILD NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE EURO
AND GFS VARY AS TO THE DEGREE THAT OCCURS AND THE HANDLING OF ANY
SHORTWAVES.  THAT FAR OUT I KEPT THE PERIOD DRY THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A NEED TO ADD POPS AT SOME POINT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE.  HIGHS WARM A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH READINGS BACK IN
THE 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUICKLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
AFTER 06Z AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 281209
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
709 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER JET MAX AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES EXPECTED WEST OF I35...PRIMARILY BEFORE
SUNRISE.  WILL SEE DECENT HEIGHT RISES TODAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE.  INITIALLY...LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL...HOWEVER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SUNSHINE
REAPPEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE WEST SEEING THE BEST REBOUND AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL TRENDS OF THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM REMAIN UNCHANGED.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ABOUT INSTABILITY AND THUNDER POTENTIAL
AND ALSO SOME TIMING ISSUES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BREAKDOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IN PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE
INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS BUT THEY ARE BOTH WEAK IN THE 0-6KM LAYER
WITH NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER BUT IT WOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED AND MY CONFIDENCE IN IT
OCCURRING OVER A GIVEN AREA WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT BUT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD PROBABLY HAPPEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT.  SOUNDINGS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME WITH DEEPER SATURATION WITH THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD FROM ABOUT 09Z UNTIL 12-15Z SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OUT
OF THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF QPF EITHER.  WINDS ALOFT ARE PRETTY
STRONG AND WITH MIXING WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AROUND 35 MPH SO SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AND WARMER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.  THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR
FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING SOME PRECIP AND RH VALUES
DIP INTO THE MID 30S FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NOT
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HOIST HEADLINES...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WITH THE EURO
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IT AND THE GFS AND SREF KEEPING ANY
PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  I KEPT THE CWA DRY ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS EACH DAY.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL GET ADVECTED INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DECENT INSTABILITY.  LOW LEVEL
FORCING LOOKS DECENT THOUGH THE MID LEVEL FORCING IS WEAKER AND
ARRIVES LATER.  HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE DOES ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SO I DID LEAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A MORE BROAD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WAVE BUT THIS WAVE LACKS THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY OF
THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM SO I ONLY HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED WITH THAT.
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME
SO HIGHS ARE BACK INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY AND I DID NUDGE HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WE HAD.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST TRIES TO REBUILD NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE EURO
AND GFS VARY AS TO THE DEGREE THAT OCCURS AND THE HANDLING OF ANY
SHORTWAVES.  THAT FAR OUT I KEPT THE PERIOD DRY THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A NEED TO ADD POPS AT SOME POINT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE.  HIGHS WARM A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH READINGS BACK IN
THE 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUICKLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
AFTER 06Z AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 281209
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
709 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER JET MAX AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES EXPECTED WEST OF I35...PRIMARILY BEFORE
SUNRISE.  WILL SEE DECENT HEIGHT RISES TODAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE.  INITIALLY...LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL...HOWEVER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SUNSHINE
REAPPEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE WEST SEEING THE BEST REBOUND AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL TRENDS OF THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM REMAIN UNCHANGED.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ABOUT INSTABILITY AND THUNDER POTENTIAL
AND ALSO SOME TIMING ISSUES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BREAKDOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IN PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE
INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS BUT THEY ARE BOTH WEAK IN THE 0-6KM LAYER
WITH NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER BUT IT WOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED AND MY CONFIDENCE IN IT
OCCURRING OVER A GIVEN AREA WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT BUT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD PROBABLY HAPPEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT.  SOUNDINGS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME WITH DEEPER SATURATION WITH THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD FROM ABOUT 09Z UNTIL 12-15Z SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OUT
OF THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF QPF EITHER.  WINDS ALOFT ARE PRETTY
STRONG AND WITH MIXING WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AROUND 35 MPH SO SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AND WARMER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.  THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR
FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING SOME PRECIP AND RH VALUES
DIP INTO THE MID 30S FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NOT
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HOIST HEADLINES...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WITH THE EURO
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IT AND THE GFS AND SREF KEEPING ANY
PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  I KEPT THE CWA DRY ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS EACH DAY.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL GET ADVECTED INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DECENT INSTABILITY.  LOW LEVEL
FORCING LOOKS DECENT THOUGH THE MID LEVEL FORCING IS WEAKER AND
ARRIVES LATER.  HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE DOES ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SO I DID LEAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A MORE BROAD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WAVE BUT THIS WAVE LACKS THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY OF
THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM SO I ONLY HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED WITH THAT.
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME
SO HIGHS ARE BACK INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY AND I DID NUDGE HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WE HAD.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST TRIES TO REBUILD NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE EURO
AND GFS VARY AS TO THE DEGREE THAT OCCURS AND THE HANDLING OF ANY
SHORTWAVES.  THAT FAR OUT I KEPT THE PERIOD DRY THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A NEED TO ADD POPS AT SOME POINT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE.  HIGHS WARM A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH READINGS BACK IN
THE 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUICKLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
AFTER 06Z AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 281209
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
709 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER JET MAX AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES EXPECTED WEST OF I35...PRIMARILY BEFORE
SUNRISE.  WILL SEE DECENT HEIGHT RISES TODAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE.  INITIALLY...LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL...HOWEVER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SUNSHINE
REAPPEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE WEST SEEING THE BEST REBOUND AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL TRENDS OF THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM REMAIN UNCHANGED.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ABOUT INSTABILITY AND THUNDER POTENTIAL
AND ALSO SOME TIMING ISSUES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BREAKDOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IN PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE
INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS BUT THEY ARE BOTH WEAK IN THE 0-6KM LAYER
WITH NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER BUT IT WOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED AND MY CONFIDENCE IN IT
OCCURRING OVER A GIVEN AREA WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT BUT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD PROBABLY HAPPEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT.  SOUNDINGS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME WITH DEEPER SATURATION WITH THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD FROM ABOUT 09Z UNTIL 12-15Z SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OUT
OF THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF QPF EITHER.  WINDS ALOFT ARE PRETTY
STRONG AND WITH MIXING WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AROUND 35 MPH SO SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AND WARMER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.  THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR
FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING SOME PRECIP AND RH VALUES
DIP INTO THE MID 30S FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NOT
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HOIST HEADLINES...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WITH THE EURO
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IT AND THE GFS AND SREF KEEPING ANY
PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  I KEPT THE CWA DRY ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS EACH DAY.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL GET ADVECTED INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DECENT INSTABILITY.  LOW LEVEL
FORCING LOOKS DECENT THOUGH THE MID LEVEL FORCING IS WEAKER AND
ARRIVES LATER.  HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE DOES ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SO I DID LEAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A MORE BROAD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WAVE BUT THIS WAVE LACKS THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY OF
THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM SO I ONLY HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED WITH THAT.
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME
SO HIGHS ARE BACK INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY AND I DID NUDGE HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WE HAD.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST TRIES TO REBUILD NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE EURO
AND GFS VARY AS TO THE DEGREE THAT OCCURS AND THE HANDLING OF ANY
SHORTWAVES.  THAT FAR OUT I KEPT THE PERIOD DRY THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A NEED TO ADD POPS AT SOME POINT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE.  HIGHS WARM A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH READINGS BACK IN
THE 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z
ISSUED AT 706 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

CEILINGS WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE ACROSS WESTERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY MIDDAY. THE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOUTHEAST SURFACE
WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS QUICKLY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
AFTER 06Z AS A FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280854
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER JET MAX AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES EXPECTED WEST OF I35...PRIMARILY BEFORE
SUNRISE.  WILL SEE DECENT HEIGHT RISES TODAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE.  INITIALLY...LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL...HOWEVER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SUNSHINE
REAPPEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE WEST SEEING THE BEST REBOUND AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL TRENDS OF THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM REMAIN UNCHANGED.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ABOUT INSTABILITY AND THUNDER POTENTIAL
AND ALSO SOME TIMING ISSUES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BREAKDOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IN PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE
INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS BUT THEY ARE BOTH WEAK IN THE 0-6KM LAYER
WITH NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER BUT IT WOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED AND MY CONFIDENCE IN IT
OCCURRING OVER A GIVEN AREA WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT BUT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD PROBABLY HAPPEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT.  SOUNDINGS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME WITH DEEPER SATURATION WITH THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD FROM ABOUT 09Z UNTIL 12-15Z SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OUT
OF THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF QPF EITHER.  WINDS ALOFT ARE PRETTY
STRONG AND WITH MIXING WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AROUND 35 MPH SO SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AND WARMER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.  THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR
FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING SOME PRECIP AND RH VALUES
DIP INTO THE MID 30S FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NOT
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HOIST HEADLINES...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WITH THE EURO
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IT AND THE GFS AND SREF KEEPING ANY
PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  I KEPT THE CWA DRY ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS EACH DAY.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL GET ADVECTED INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DECENT INSTABILITY.  LOW LEVEL
FORCING LOOKS DECENT THOUGH THE MID LEVEL FORCING IS WEAKER AND
ARRIVES LATER.  HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE DOES ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SO I DID LEAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A MORE BROAD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WAVE BUT THIS WAVE LACKS THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY OF
THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM SO I ONLY HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED WITH THAT.
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME
SO HIGHS ARE BACK INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY AND I DID NUDGE HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WE HAD.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST TRIES TO REBUILD NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE EURO
AND GFS VARY AS TO THE DEGREE THAT OCCURS AND THE HANDLING OF ANY
SHORTWAVES.  THAT FAR OUT I KEPT THE PERIOD DRY THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A NEED TO ADD POPS AT SOME POINT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE.  HIGHS WARM A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH READINGS BACK IN
THE 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER WRN IA BUT WILL LARGELY LEAVE TAF SITES
UNAFFECTED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN LOWERING VFR CLOUDINESS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME VIRGA AT KFOD/KDSM/KOTM. THERE MAY BE A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT KFOD/KDSM...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AND DURATION LED TO IT BEING OMITTED. THUS ENTIRE
PERIOD IS VFR WITH NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD CIGS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SELY OVERNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE SAT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 280854
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER JET MAX AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES EXPECTED WEST OF I35...PRIMARILY BEFORE
SUNRISE.  WILL SEE DECENT HEIGHT RISES TODAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE.  INITIALLY...LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL...HOWEVER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SUNSHINE
REAPPEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE WEST SEEING THE BEST REBOUND AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL TRENDS OF THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM REMAIN UNCHANGED.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ABOUT INSTABILITY AND THUNDER POTENTIAL
AND ALSO SOME TIMING ISSUES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BREAKDOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IN PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE
INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS BUT THEY ARE BOTH WEAK IN THE 0-6KM LAYER
WITH NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER BUT IT WOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED AND MY CONFIDENCE IN IT
OCCURRING OVER A GIVEN AREA WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT BUT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD PROBABLY HAPPEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT.  SOUNDINGS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME WITH DEEPER SATURATION WITH THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD FROM ABOUT 09Z UNTIL 12-15Z SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OUT
OF THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF QPF EITHER.  WINDS ALOFT ARE PRETTY
STRONG AND WITH MIXING WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AROUND 35 MPH SO SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AND WARMER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.  THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR
FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING SOME PRECIP AND RH VALUES
DIP INTO THE MID 30S FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NOT
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HOIST HEADLINES...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WITH THE EURO
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IT AND THE GFS AND SREF KEEPING ANY
PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  I KEPT THE CWA DRY ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS EACH DAY.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL GET ADVECTED INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DECENT INSTABILITY.  LOW LEVEL
FORCING LOOKS DECENT THOUGH THE MID LEVEL FORCING IS WEAKER AND
ARRIVES LATER.  HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE DOES ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SO I DID LEAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A MORE BROAD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WAVE BUT THIS WAVE LACKS THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY OF
THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM SO I ONLY HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED WITH THAT.
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME
SO HIGHS ARE BACK INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY AND I DID NUDGE HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WE HAD.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST TRIES TO REBUILD NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE EURO
AND GFS VARY AS TO THE DEGREE THAT OCCURS AND THE HANDLING OF ANY
SHORTWAVES.  THAT FAR OUT I KEPT THE PERIOD DRY THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A NEED TO ADD POPS AT SOME POINT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE.  HIGHS WARM A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH READINGS BACK IN
THE 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER WRN IA BUT WILL LARGELY LEAVE TAF SITES
UNAFFECTED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN LOWERING VFR CLOUDINESS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME VIRGA AT KFOD/KDSM/KOTM. THERE MAY BE A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT KFOD/KDSM...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AND DURATION LED TO IT BEING OMITTED. THUS ENTIRE
PERIOD IS VFR WITH NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD CIGS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SELY OVERNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE SAT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280854
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

UPPER JET MAX AND SHORTWAVE WILL BE DEPARTING THIS MORNING WITH ONLY
A FEW SCATTERED FLURRIES EXPECTED WEST OF I35...PRIMARILY BEFORE
SUNRISE.  WILL SEE DECENT HEIGHT RISES TODAY BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE STATE.  INITIALLY...LOW LEVEL THERMAL
ADVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY NEUTRAL...HOWEVER AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...WARM ADVECTION WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING SHORTWAVE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT.  IN
ADDITION...CLOUDS ACROSS THE WEST ARE EXPECTED TO WANE THROUGH THE
DAY WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE AND DRIER AIR ADVECTING
INTO THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. WITH THE SUNSHINE
REAPPEARING BY THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASING WARM
ADVECTION...ANTICIPATE TEMPERATURES TO BE AROUND 5 DEGREES WARMER IN
MOST LOCATIONS WITH THE WEST SEEING THE BEST REBOUND AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE WILL BE CLOSER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

OVERALL TRENDS OF THE FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM REMAIN UNCHANGED.
THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTION ABOUT INSTABILITY AND THUNDER POTENTIAL
AND ALSO SOME TIMING ISSUES.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE WILL BREAKDOWN THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS IN PUSHES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST.  THERE IS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS AND THE NAM IS A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZED WITH THE
INSTABILITY THAN THE GFS BUT THEY ARE BOTH WEAK IN THE 0-6KM LAYER
WITH NO INSTABILITY TO SPEAK OF IN THE LOWER LEVELS.  AS WARM
ADVECTION INCREASES TONIGHT I CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED RUMBLE OF
THUNDER BUT IT WOULD BE BRIEF AND ISOLATED AND MY CONFIDENCE IN IT
OCCURRING OVER A GIVEN AREA WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT THIS
POINT BUT IF IT WERE TO OCCUR IT WOULD PROBABLY HAPPEN ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST INTO WEST CENTRAL LATE TONIGHT.  SOUNDINGS ARE HAVING A
HARD TIME WITH DEEPER SATURATION WITH THIS SYSTEM EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD FROM ABOUT 09Z UNTIL 12-15Z SO I AM NOT LOOKING FOR MUCH OUT
OF THIS SYSTEM IN TERMS OF QPF EITHER.  WINDS ALOFT ARE PRETTY
STRONG AND WITH MIXING WE WILL SEE WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AROUND 35 MPH SO SUNDAY WILL BE WINDY AND WARMER WITH ANY PRECIP
CHANCES MAINLY IN THE MORNING HOURS.  THERE WILL BE SOME CONCERN FOR
FIRE WEATHER ON SUNDAY WITH THE WARMING TEMPS AND WINDY CONDITIONS.
HOWEVER... AT THIS POINT WE ARE EXPECTING SOME PRECIP AND RH VALUES
DIP INTO THE MID 30S FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL NOT
LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO HOIST HEADLINES...AT LEAST AT THIS POINT.

THE UPPER RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE ROCKIES MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AND
MODELS DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF A SHORTWAVE ON MONDAY WITH THE EURO
A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH IT AND THE GFS AND SREF KEEPING ANY
PRECIP TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  I KEPT THE CWA DRY ON MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH WARMING TEMPS EACH DAY.

WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A POTENT SHORTWAVE TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
ON WEDNESDAY.  MOISTURE WILL GET ADVECTED INTO IOWA AHEAD OF THIS
FEATURE AND THE GFS IS SHOWING SOME DECENT INSTABILITY.  LOW LEVEL
FORCING LOOKS DECENT THOUGH THE MID LEVEL FORCING IS WEAKER AND
ARRIVES LATER.  HOWEVER THE SHORTWAVE DOES ARRIVE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SO I DID LEAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MENTIONED FOR
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

A MORE BROAD SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY ON THE HEELS
OF THE FIRST WAVE BUT THIS WAVE LACKS THE FORCING AND INSTABILITY OF
THE WEDNESDAY SYSTEM SO I ONLY HAVE SHOWERS MENTIONED WITH THAT.
COOLER AIR WILL ALSO MOVE IN DURING THE THURSDAY/FRIDAY TIME FRAME
SO HIGHS ARE BACK INTO THE 50S BY FRIDAY AND I DID NUDGE HIGHS A
COUPLE DEGREES COOLER THAN WE HAD.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WEST TRIES TO REBUILD NEXT WEEKEND BUT THE EURO
AND GFS VARY AS TO THE DEGREE THAT OCCURS AND THE HANDLING OF ANY
SHORTWAVES.  THAT FAR OUT I KEPT THE PERIOD DRY THOUGH THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A NEED TO ADD POPS AT SOME POINT AS THE PATTERN REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE.  HIGHS WARM A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH READINGS BACK IN
THE 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER WRN IA BUT WILL LARGELY LEAVE TAF SITES
UNAFFECTED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN LOWERING VFR CLOUDINESS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME VIRGA AT KFOD/KDSM/KOTM. THERE MAY BE A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT KFOD/KDSM...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AND DURATION LED TO IT BEING OMITTED. THUS ENTIRE
PERIOD IS VFR WITH NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD CIGS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SELY OVERNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE SAT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280505
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1205 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NO CHANGE TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH RECENT OBS ARE
SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO DRY
LOW LEVELS...CIGS CONTINUE TO DROP AND PRECIP INTENSITY ALOFT IS
DECENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE DIMINISH POPS OVERALL. ANY
ACCUMS WOULD BE UNDER AN INCH...WITH NARROW COVERAGE...AND LIKELY
ONLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES. ROAD SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL 35F
PLUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND 500MB VORT MAX WILL CUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL LOCATION OF POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE
HRRR ROUGHLY 2 MAYBE 3 HOURS TOO FAST WITH ONSET OF PRECIP COMPARED
TO OTHER HIRES MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE RAP/SREF/HOPWRF BLEND FOR
TIMING.

THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 500MB NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ENTER THE STATE BY AROUND 00Z WITH ONSET OF PRECIP B/T 00Z-02Z OVER
WESTERN IOWA. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR SURFACE LAYER TO BECOME
SATURATED...IF AT ALL...THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. STILL...THERE IS A BRIEF STINT WHEN THE FORCING IN
THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL CAUSE IT TO SNOW HARD ENOUGH FOR IT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND ACCUMULATE. MAINLY A FEW TENTHS OF INCH
POSSIBLE AND NO MORE THAN A HALF INCH ANTICIPATED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. INCREASED POPS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AND ONLY
SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS. MAY SEE SOME FZDZ ON THE
TALE END OF THE EVENT WITH THE COLUMN LOSING ICE INTRODUCTION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS CHALLENGES COMING UP IN THE EXTENDED
PACKAGE. BY EARLY SATURDAY THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE H500 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING SOUTHWEST IOWA...TAKING ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW AWAY FROM
THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUING...NEXT
UPSTREAM WAVE IS JUST ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM NEAR
WASHINGTON/BC AREAS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SYSTEM NICELY AND
EXPECTED TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
06Z SUNDAY. JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM A SECOND SYSTEM
OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING NORTH AS
WELL AS AN ADIABATIC WARMING COMPONENT AIDING IN WARMING WEST OF
THE REGION. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
FORCING/MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THIS FAST MOVING
SYSTEM. THE MODELS REMAIN SPLIT WITH THE GFS/NAM DRIER THAN THE
GEM/EURO THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE PAST RUN FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY IN AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...NOT SO MUCH ON TIMING.
THE LATTER WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES BETWEEN THE TWO PAIRS OF
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BRIEFLY RETURNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARD THE EURO/GEM THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT AND COOLER DAYTIME
HIGHS. WINDS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FOR SUNDAY AS STRONGER NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER TOP
WINDS APPROACHING 40KT OR HIGHER AT KALO AND KMCW AND MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER SOME HEADLINES FOR WIND IN THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS. BY MONDAY
...ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...TRACKING JUST
NORTH OF IOWA ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MN. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF
THE FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE FORECAST BEING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HAVE RAISED HIGHS ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN THE CONSENSUS H850 READINGS OF 6C TO 9C...
MODEST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS/EURO ARE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT
FOR THE TUE-THU PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
TO CONTINUE. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF
WILL BE INJECTED INTO THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE TIMING IS CRITICAL
FOR ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER OR SVR POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY...A CHANGE
FROM THE PAST 2 DAYS AND THE NEW EURO IS ALSO SHOWING THUNDER FOR
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. A QUICK LOOK AT BOTH MODELS HAVE THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXES CONTINUING TO LAG THE LOW LEVEL
H850 FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH FEATURES OUT OF
PHASE...LIKELY THAT ANY SEVERE THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD NOT BE
LONG LASTING OR EXTENSIVE...AND MAINLY A RESULT OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY LATE DAY TO EARLY EVENING. THIS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
TREND TOWARD BLENDED POP FOR THE DAY WITH THUNDER MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EVENING HOURS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
SOME COOLER AIR ARRIVES ONCE AGAIN WITH A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE THUNDER. PATTERN LOOKING WETTER WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMING MORE ACTIVE. COLDER WEATHER RETURNS BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER WRN IA BUT WILL LARGELY LEAVE TAF SITES
UNAFFECTED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN LOWERING VFR CLOUDINESS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME VIRGA AT KFOD/KDSM/KOTM. THERE MAY BE A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT KFOD/KDSM...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AND DURATION LED TO IT BEING OMITTED. THUS ENTIRE
PERIOD IS VFR WITH NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD CIGS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SELY OVERNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE SAT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 280505
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1205 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NO CHANGE TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH RECENT OBS ARE
SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO DRY
LOW LEVELS...CIGS CONTINUE TO DROP AND PRECIP INTENSITY ALOFT IS
DECENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE DIMINISH POPS OVERALL. ANY
ACCUMS WOULD BE UNDER AN INCH...WITH NARROW COVERAGE...AND LIKELY
ONLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES. ROAD SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL 35F
PLUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND 500MB VORT MAX WILL CUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL LOCATION OF POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE
HRRR ROUGHLY 2 MAYBE 3 HOURS TOO FAST WITH ONSET OF PRECIP COMPARED
TO OTHER HIRES MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE RAP/SREF/HOPWRF BLEND FOR
TIMING.

THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 500MB NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ENTER THE STATE BY AROUND 00Z WITH ONSET OF PRECIP B/T 00Z-02Z OVER
WESTERN IOWA. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR SURFACE LAYER TO BECOME
SATURATED...IF AT ALL...THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. STILL...THERE IS A BRIEF STINT WHEN THE FORCING IN
THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL CAUSE IT TO SNOW HARD ENOUGH FOR IT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND ACCUMULATE. MAINLY A FEW TENTHS OF INCH
POSSIBLE AND NO MORE THAN A HALF INCH ANTICIPATED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. INCREASED POPS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AND ONLY
SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS. MAY SEE SOME FZDZ ON THE
TALE END OF THE EVENT WITH THE COLUMN LOSING ICE INTRODUCTION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS CHALLENGES COMING UP IN THE EXTENDED
PACKAGE. BY EARLY SATURDAY THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE H500 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING SOUTHWEST IOWA...TAKING ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW AWAY FROM
THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUING...NEXT
UPSTREAM WAVE IS JUST ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM NEAR
WASHINGTON/BC AREAS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SYSTEM NICELY AND
EXPECTED TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
06Z SUNDAY. JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM A SECOND SYSTEM
OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING NORTH AS
WELL AS AN ADIABATIC WARMING COMPONENT AIDING IN WARMING WEST OF
THE REGION. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
FORCING/MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THIS FAST MOVING
SYSTEM. THE MODELS REMAIN SPLIT WITH THE GFS/NAM DRIER THAN THE
GEM/EURO THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE PAST RUN FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY IN AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...NOT SO MUCH ON TIMING.
THE LATTER WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES BETWEEN THE TWO PAIRS OF
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BRIEFLY RETURNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARD THE EURO/GEM THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT AND COOLER DAYTIME
HIGHS. WINDS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FOR SUNDAY AS STRONGER NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER TOP
WINDS APPROACHING 40KT OR HIGHER AT KALO AND KMCW AND MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER SOME HEADLINES FOR WIND IN THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS. BY MONDAY
...ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...TRACKING JUST
NORTH OF IOWA ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MN. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF
THE FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE FORECAST BEING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HAVE RAISED HIGHS ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN THE CONSENSUS H850 READINGS OF 6C TO 9C...
MODEST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS/EURO ARE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT
FOR THE TUE-THU PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
TO CONTINUE. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF
WILL BE INJECTED INTO THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE TIMING IS CRITICAL
FOR ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER OR SVR POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY...A CHANGE
FROM THE PAST 2 DAYS AND THE NEW EURO IS ALSO SHOWING THUNDER FOR
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. A QUICK LOOK AT BOTH MODELS HAVE THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXES CONTINUING TO LAG THE LOW LEVEL
H850 FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH FEATURES OUT OF
PHASE...LIKELY THAT ANY SEVERE THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD NOT BE
LONG LASTING OR EXTENSIVE...AND MAINLY A RESULT OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY LATE DAY TO EARLY EVENING. THIS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
TREND TOWARD BLENDED POP FOR THE DAY WITH THUNDER MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EVENING HOURS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
SOME COOLER AIR ARRIVES ONCE AGAIN WITH A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE THUNDER. PATTERN LOOKING WETTER WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMING MORE ACTIVE. COLDER WEATHER RETURNS BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER WRN IA BUT WILL LARGELY LEAVE TAF SITES
UNAFFECTED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN LOWERING VFR CLOUDINESS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME VIRGA AT KFOD/KDSM/KOTM. THERE MAY BE A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT KFOD/KDSM...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AND DURATION LED TO IT BEING OMITTED. THUS ENTIRE
PERIOD IS VFR WITH NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD CIGS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SELY OVERNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE SAT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280505
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1205 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NO CHANGE TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH RECENT OBS ARE
SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO DRY
LOW LEVELS...CIGS CONTINUE TO DROP AND PRECIP INTENSITY ALOFT IS
DECENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE DIMINISH POPS OVERALL. ANY
ACCUMS WOULD BE UNDER AN INCH...WITH NARROW COVERAGE...AND LIKELY
ONLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES. ROAD SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL 35F
PLUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND 500MB VORT MAX WILL CUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL LOCATION OF POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE
HRRR ROUGHLY 2 MAYBE 3 HOURS TOO FAST WITH ONSET OF PRECIP COMPARED
TO OTHER HIRES MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE RAP/SREF/HOPWRF BLEND FOR
TIMING.

THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 500MB NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ENTER THE STATE BY AROUND 00Z WITH ONSET OF PRECIP B/T 00Z-02Z OVER
WESTERN IOWA. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR SURFACE LAYER TO BECOME
SATURATED...IF AT ALL...THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. STILL...THERE IS A BRIEF STINT WHEN THE FORCING IN
THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL CAUSE IT TO SNOW HARD ENOUGH FOR IT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND ACCUMULATE. MAINLY A FEW TENTHS OF INCH
POSSIBLE AND NO MORE THAN A HALF INCH ANTICIPATED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. INCREASED POPS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AND ONLY
SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS. MAY SEE SOME FZDZ ON THE
TALE END OF THE EVENT WITH THE COLUMN LOSING ICE INTRODUCTION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS CHALLENGES COMING UP IN THE EXTENDED
PACKAGE. BY EARLY SATURDAY THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE H500 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING SOUTHWEST IOWA...TAKING ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW AWAY FROM
THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUING...NEXT
UPSTREAM WAVE IS JUST ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM NEAR
WASHINGTON/BC AREAS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SYSTEM NICELY AND
EXPECTED TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
06Z SUNDAY. JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM A SECOND SYSTEM
OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING NORTH AS
WELL AS AN ADIABATIC WARMING COMPONENT AIDING IN WARMING WEST OF
THE REGION. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
FORCING/MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THIS FAST MOVING
SYSTEM. THE MODELS REMAIN SPLIT WITH THE GFS/NAM DRIER THAN THE
GEM/EURO THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE PAST RUN FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY IN AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...NOT SO MUCH ON TIMING.
THE LATTER WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES BETWEEN THE TWO PAIRS OF
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BRIEFLY RETURNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARD THE EURO/GEM THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT AND COOLER DAYTIME
HIGHS. WINDS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FOR SUNDAY AS STRONGER NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER TOP
WINDS APPROACHING 40KT OR HIGHER AT KALO AND KMCW AND MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER SOME HEADLINES FOR WIND IN THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS. BY MONDAY
...ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...TRACKING JUST
NORTH OF IOWA ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MN. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF
THE FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE FORECAST BEING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HAVE RAISED HIGHS ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN THE CONSENSUS H850 READINGS OF 6C TO 9C...
MODEST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS/EURO ARE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT
FOR THE TUE-THU PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
TO CONTINUE. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF
WILL BE INJECTED INTO THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE TIMING IS CRITICAL
FOR ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER OR SVR POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY...A CHANGE
FROM THE PAST 2 DAYS AND THE NEW EURO IS ALSO SHOWING THUNDER FOR
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. A QUICK LOOK AT BOTH MODELS HAVE THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXES CONTINUING TO LAG THE LOW LEVEL
H850 FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH FEATURES OUT OF
PHASE...LIKELY THAT ANY SEVERE THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD NOT BE
LONG LASTING OR EXTENSIVE...AND MAINLY A RESULT OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY LATE DAY TO EARLY EVENING. THIS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
TREND TOWARD BLENDED POP FOR THE DAY WITH THUNDER MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EVENING HOURS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
SOME COOLER AIR ARRIVES ONCE AGAIN WITH A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE THUNDER. PATTERN LOOKING WETTER WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMING MORE ACTIVE. COLDER WEATHER RETURNS BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER WRN IA BUT WILL LARGELY LEAVE TAF SITES
UNAFFECTED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN LOWERING VFR CLOUDINESS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME VIRGA AT KFOD/KDSM/KOTM. THERE MAY BE A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT KFOD/KDSM...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AND DURATION LED TO IT BEING OMITTED. THUS ENTIRE
PERIOD IS VFR WITH NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD CIGS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SELY OVERNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE SAT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 280505
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1205 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NO CHANGE TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH RECENT OBS ARE
SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO DRY
LOW LEVELS...CIGS CONTINUE TO DROP AND PRECIP INTENSITY ALOFT IS
DECENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE DIMINISH POPS OVERALL. ANY
ACCUMS WOULD BE UNDER AN INCH...WITH NARROW COVERAGE...AND LIKELY
ONLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES. ROAD SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL 35F
PLUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND 500MB VORT MAX WILL CUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL LOCATION OF POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE
HRRR ROUGHLY 2 MAYBE 3 HOURS TOO FAST WITH ONSET OF PRECIP COMPARED
TO OTHER HIRES MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE RAP/SREF/HOPWRF BLEND FOR
TIMING.

THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 500MB NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ENTER THE STATE BY AROUND 00Z WITH ONSET OF PRECIP B/T 00Z-02Z OVER
WESTERN IOWA. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR SURFACE LAYER TO BECOME
SATURATED...IF AT ALL...THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. STILL...THERE IS A BRIEF STINT WHEN THE FORCING IN
THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL CAUSE IT TO SNOW HARD ENOUGH FOR IT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND ACCUMULATE. MAINLY A FEW TENTHS OF INCH
POSSIBLE AND NO MORE THAN A HALF INCH ANTICIPATED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. INCREASED POPS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AND ONLY
SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS. MAY SEE SOME FZDZ ON THE
TALE END OF THE EVENT WITH THE COLUMN LOSING ICE INTRODUCTION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS CHALLENGES COMING UP IN THE EXTENDED
PACKAGE. BY EARLY SATURDAY THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE H500 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING SOUTHWEST IOWA...TAKING ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW AWAY FROM
THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUING...NEXT
UPSTREAM WAVE IS JUST ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM NEAR
WASHINGTON/BC AREAS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SYSTEM NICELY AND
EXPECTED TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
06Z SUNDAY. JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM A SECOND SYSTEM
OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING NORTH AS
WELL AS AN ADIABATIC WARMING COMPONENT AIDING IN WARMING WEST OF
THE REGION. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
FORCING/MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THIS FAST MOVING
SYSTEM. THE MODELS REMAIN SPLIT WITH THE GFS/NAM DRIER THAN THE
GEM/EURO THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE PAST RUN FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY IN AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...NOT SO MUCH ON TIMING.
THE LATTER WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES BETWEEN THE TWO PAIRS OF
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BRIEFLY RETURNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARD THE EURO/GEM THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT AND COOLER DAYTIME
HIGHS. WINDS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FOR SUNDAY AS STRONGER NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER TOP
WINDS APPROACHING 40KT OR HIGHER AT KALO AND KMCW AND MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER SOME HEADLINES FOR WIND IN THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS. BY MONDAY
...ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...TRACKING JUST
NORTH OF IOWA ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MN. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF
THE FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE FORECAST BEING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HAVE RAISED HIGHS ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN THE CONSENSUS H850 READINGS OF 6C TO 9C...
MODEST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS/EURO ARE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT
FOR THE TUE-THU PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
TO CONTINUE. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF
WILL BE INJECTED INTO THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE TIMING IS CRITICAL
FOR ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER OR SVR POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY...A CHANGE
FROM THE PAST 2 DAYS AND THE NEW EURO IS ALSO SHOWING THUNDER FOR
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. A QUICK LOOK AT BOTH MODELS HAVE THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXES CONTINUING TO LAG THE LOW LEVEL
H850 FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH FEATURES OUT OF
PHASE...LIKELY THAT ANY SEVERE THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD NOT BE
LONG LASTING OR EXTENSIVE...AND MAINLY A RESULT OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY LATE DAY TO EARLY EVENING. THIS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
TREND TOWARD BLENDED POP FOR THE DAY WITH THUNDER MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EVENING HOURS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
SOME COOLER AIR ARRIVES ONCE AGAIN WITH A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE THUNDER. PATTERN LOOKING WETTER WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMING MORE ACTIVE. COLDER WEATHER RETURNS BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1202 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES OVER WRN IA BUT WILL LARGELY LEAVE TAF SITES
UNAFFECTED WITH NOTHING MORE THAN LOWERING VFR CLOUDINESS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME VIRGA AT KFOD/KDSM/KOTM. THERE MAY BE A VERY
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES AT KFOD/KDSM...BUT LOW
CONFIDENCE AND DURATION LED TO IT BEING OMITTED. THUS ENTIRE
PERIOD IS VFR WITH NOTHING MORE THAN MID CLOUD CIGS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT SELY OVERNIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY INCREASING LATE SAT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280155
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
855 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NO CHANGE TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH RECENT OBS ARE
SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO DRY
LOW LEVELS...CIGS CONTINUE TO DROP AND PRECIP INTENSITY ALOFT IS
DECENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE DIMINISH POPS OVERALL. ANY
ACCUMS WOULD BE UNDER AN INCH...WITH NARROW COVERAGE...AND LIKELY
ONLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES. ROAD SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL 35F
PLUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND 500MB VORT MAX WILL CUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL LOCATION OF POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE
HRRR ROUGHLY 2 MAYBE 3 HOURS TOO FAST WITH ONSET OF PRECIP COMPARED
TO OTHER HIRES MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE RAP/SREF/HOPWRF BLEND FOR
TIMING.

THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 500MB NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ENTER THE STATE BY AROUND 00Z WITH ONSET OF PRECIP B/T 00Z-02Z OVER
WESTERN IOWA. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR SURFACE LAYER TO BECOME
SATURATED...IF AT ALL...THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. STILL...THERE IS A BRIEF STINT WHEN THE FORCING IN
THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL CAUSE IT TO SNOW HARD ENOUGH FOR IT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND ACCUMULATE. MAINLY A FEW TENTHS OF INCH
POSSIBLE AND NO MORE THAN A HALF INCH ANTICIPATED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. INCREASED POPS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AND ONLY
SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS. MAY SEE SOME FZDZ ON THE
TALE END OF THE EVENT WITH THE COLUMN LOSING ICE INTRODUCTION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS CHALLENGES COMING UP IN THE EXTENDED
PACKAGE. BY EARLY SATURDAY THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE H500 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING SOUTHWEST IOWA...TAKING ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW AWAY FROM
THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUING...NEXT
UPSTREAM WAVE IS JUST ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM NEAR
WASHINGTON/BC AREAS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SYSTEM NICELY AND
EXPECTED TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
06Z SUNDAY. JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM A SECOND SYSTEM
OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING NORTH AS
WELL AS AN ADIABATIC WARMING COMPONENT AIDING IN WARMING WEST OF
THE REGION. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
FORCING/MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THIS FAST MOVING
SYSTEM. THE MODELS REMAIN SPLIT WITH THE GFS/NAM DRIER THAN THE
GEM/EURO THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE PAST RUN FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY IN AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...NOT SO MUCH ON TIMING.
THE LATTER WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES BETWEEN THE TWO PAIRS OF
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BRIEFLY RETURNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARD THE EURO/GEM THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT AND COOLER DAYTIME
HIGHS. WINDS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FOR SUNDAY AS STRONGER NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER TOP
WINDS APPROACHING 40KT OR HIGHER AT KALO AND KMCW AND MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER SOME HEADLINES FOR WIND IN THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS. BY MONDAY
...ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...TRACKING JUST
NORTH OF IOWA ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MN. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF
THE FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE FORECAST BEING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HAVE RAISED HIGHS ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN THE CONSENSUS H850 READINGS OF 6C TO 9C...
MODEST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS/EURO ARE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT
FOR THE TUE-THU PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
TO CONTINUE. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF
WILL BE INJECTED INTO THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE TIMING IS CRITICAL
FOR ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER OR SVR POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY...A CHANGE
FROM THE PAST 2 DAYS AND THE NEW EURO IS ALSO SHOWING THUNDER FOR
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. A QUICK LOOK AT BOTH MODELS HAVE THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXES CONTINUING TO LAG THE LOW LEVEL
H850 FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH FEATURES OUT OF
PHASE...LIKELY THAT ANY SEVERE THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD NOT BE
LONG LASTING OR EXTENSIVE...AND MAINLY A RESULT OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY LATE DAY TO EARLY EVENING. THIS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
TREND TOWARD BLENDED POP FOR THE DAY WITH THUNDER MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EVENING HOURS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
SOME COOLER AIR ARRIVES ONCE AGAIN WITH A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE THUNDER. PATTERN LOOKING WETTER WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMING MORE ACTIVE. COLDER WEATHER RETURNS BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL DROP FROM THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER INTO WRN IA
TONIGHT BUT WILL LARGELY LEAVE TAF SITES UNAFFECTED WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWERING VFR CLOUDINESS AND POTENTIALLY SOME VIRGA AT
KFOD/KDSM/KOTM. THUS ENTIRE PERIOD IS VFR WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
MID CLOUD CIGS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND BECOME SLY/SELY OVERNIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 280155
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
855 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 854 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

NO CHANGE TO FORECAST THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH RECENT OBS ARE
SHOWING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SNOW REACHING THE GROUND DUE TO DRY
LOW LEVELS...CIGS CONTINUE TO DROP AND PRECIP INTENSITY ALOFT IS
DECENT SO CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE DIMINISH POPS OVERALL. ANY
ACCUMS WOULD BE UNDER AN INCH...WITH NARROW COVERAGE...AND LIKELY
ONLY ON GRASSY/ELEVATED SURFACES. ROAD SURFACE TEMPS ARE STILL 35F
PLUS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND 500MB VORT MAX WILL CUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL LOCATION OF POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE
HRRR ROUGHLY 2 MAYBE 3 HOURS TOO FAST WITH ONSET OF PRECIP COMPARED
TO OTHER HIRES MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE RAP/SREF/HOPWRF BLEND FOR
TIMING.

THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 500MB NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ENTER THE STATE BY AROUND 00Z WITH ONSET OF PRECIP B/T 00Z-02Z OVER
WESTERN IOWA. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR SURFACE LAYER TO BECOME
SATURATED...IF AT ALL...THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. STILL...THERE IS A BRIEF STINT WHEN THE FORCING IN
THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL CAUSE IT TO SNOW HARD ENOUGH FOR IT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND ACCUMULATE. MAINLY A FEW TENTHS OF INCH
POSSIBLE AND NO MORE THAN A HALF INCH ANTICIPATED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. INCREASED POPS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AND ONLY
SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS. MAY SEE SOME FZDZ ON THE
TALE END OF THE EVENT WITH THE COLUMN LOSING ICE INTRODUCTION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS CHALLENGES COMING UP IN THE EXTENDED
PACKAGE. BY EARLY SATURDAY THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE H500 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING SOUTHWEST IOWA...TAKING ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW AWAY FROM
THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUING...NEXT
UPSTREAM WAVE IS JUST ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM NEAR
WASHINGTON/BC AREAS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SYSTEM NICELY AND
EXPECTED TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
06Z SUNDAY. JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM A SECOND SYSTEM
OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING NORTH AS
WELL AS AN ADIABATIC WARMING COMPONENT AIDING IN WARMING WEST OF
THE REGION. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
FORCING/MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THIS FAST MOVING
SYSTEM. THE MODELS REMAIN SPLIT WITH THE GFS/NAM DRIER THAN THE
GEM/EURO THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE PAST RUN FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY IN AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...NOT SO MUCH ON TIMING.
THE LATTER WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES BETWEEN THE TWO PAIRS OF
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BRIEFLY RETURNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARD THE EURO/GEM THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT AND COOLER DAYTIME
HIGHS. WINDS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FOR SUNDAY AS STRONGER NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER TOP
WINDS APPROACHING 40KT OR HIGHER AT KALO AND KMCW AND MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER SOME HEADLINES FOR WIND IN THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS. BY MONDAY
...ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...TRACKING JUST
NORTH OF IOWA ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MN. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF
THE FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE FORECAST BEING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HAVE RAISED HIGHS ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN THE CONSENSUS H850 READINGS OF 6C TO 9C...
MODEST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS/EURO ARE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT
FOR THE TUE-THU PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
TO CONTINUE. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF
WILL BE INJECTED INTO THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE TIMING IS CRITICAL
FOR ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER OR SVR POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY...A CHANGE
FROM THE PAST 2 DAYS AND THE NEW EURO IS ALSO SHOWING THUNDER FOR
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. A QUICK LOOK AT BOTH MODELS HAVE THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXES CONTINUING TO LAG THE LOW LEVEL
H850 FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH FEATURES OUT OF
PHASE...LIKELY THAT ANY SEVERE THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD NOT BE
LONG LASTING OR EXTENSIVE...AND MAINLY A RESULT OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY LATE DAY TO EARLY EVENING. THIS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
TREND TOWARD BLENDED POP FOR THE DAY WITH THUNDER MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EVENING HOURS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
SOME COOLER AIR ARRIVES ONCE AGAIN WITH A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE THUNDER. PATTERN LOOKING WETTER WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMING MORE ACTIVE. COLDER WEATHER RETURNS BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL DROP FROM THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER INTO WRN IA
TONIGHT BUT WILL LARGELY LEAVE TAF SITES UNAFFECTED WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWERING VFR CLOUDINESS AND POTENTIALLY SOME VIRGA AT
KFOD/KDSM/KOTM. THUS ENTIRE PERIOD IS VFR WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
MID CLOUD CIGS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND BECOME SLY/SELY OVERNIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SMALL
SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 272347
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND 500MB VORT MAX WILL CUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL LOCATION OF POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE
HRRR ROUGHLY 2 MAYBE 3 HOURS TOO FAST WITH ONSET OF PRECIP COMPARED
TO OTHER HIRES MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE RAP/SREF/HOPWRF BLEND FOR
TIMING.

THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 500MB NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ENTER THE STATE BY AROUND 00Z WITH ONSET OF PRECIP B/T 00Z-02Z OVER
WESTERN IOWA. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR SURFACE LAYER TO BECOME
SATURATED...IF AT ALL...THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. STILL...THERE IS A BRIEF STINT WHEN THE FORCING IN
THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL CAUSE IT TO SNOW HARD ENOUGH FOR IT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND ACCUMULATE. MAINLY A FEW TENTHS OF INCH
POSSIBLE AND NO MORE THAN A HALF INCH ANTICIPATED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. INCREASED POPS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AND ONLY
SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS. MAY SEE SOME FZDZ ON THE
TALE END OF THE EVENT WITH THE COLUMN LOSING ICE INTRODUCTION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS CHALLENGES COMING UP IN THE EXTENDED
PACKAGE. BY EARLY SATURDAY THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE H500 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING SOUTHWEST IOWA...TAKING ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW AWAY FROM
THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUING...NEXT
UPSTREAM WAVE IS JUST ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM NEAR
WASHINGTON/BC AREAS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SYSTEM NICELY AND
EXPECTED TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
06Z SUNDAY. JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM A SECOND SYSTEM
OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING NORTH AS
WELL AS AN ADIABATIC WARMING COMPONENT AIDING IN WARMING WEST OF
THE REGION. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
FORCING/MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THIS FAST MOVING
SYSTEM. THE MODELS REMAIN SPLIT WITH THE GFS/NAM DRIER THAN THE
GEM/EURO THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE PAST RUN FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY IN AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...NOT SO MUCH ON TIMING.
THE LATTER WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES BETWEEN THE TWO PAIRS OF
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BRIEFLY RETURNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARD THE EURO/GEM THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT AND COOLER DAYTIME
HIGHS. WINDS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FOR SUNDAY AS STRONGER NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER TOP
WINDS APPROACHING 40KT OR HIGHER AT KALO AND KMCW AND MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER SOME HEADLINES FOR WIND IN THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS. BY MONDAY
...ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...TRACKING JUST
NORTH OF IOWA ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MN. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF
THE FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE FORECAST BEING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HAVE RAISED HIGHS ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN THE CONSENSUS H850 READINGS OF 6C TO 9C...
MODEST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS/EURO ARE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT
FOR THE TUE-THU PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
TO CONTINUE. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF
WILL BE INJECTED INTO THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE TIMING IS CRITICAL
FOR ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER OR SVR POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY...A CHANGE
FROM THE PAST 2 DAYS AND THE NEW EURO IS ALSO SHOWING THUNDER FOR
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. A QUICK LOOK AT BOTH MODELS HAVE THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXES CONTINUING TO LAG THE LOW LEVEL
H850 FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH FEATURES OUT OF
PHASE...LIKELY THAT ANY SEVERE THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD NOT BE
LONG LASTING OR EXTENSIVE...AND MAINLY A RESULT OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY LATE DAY TO EARLY EVENING. THIS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
TREND TOWARD BLENDED POP FOR THE DAY WITH THUNDER MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EVENING HOURS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
SOME COOLER AIR ARRIVES ONCE AGAIN WITH A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE THUNDER. PATTERN LOOKING WETTER WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMING MORE ACTIVE. COLDER WEATHER RETURNS BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL DROP FROM THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER INTO WRN IA
TONIGHT BUT WILL LARGELY LEAVE TAF SITES UNAFFECTED WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWERING VFR CLOUDINESS AND POTENTIALLY SOME VIRGA AT
KFOD/KDSM/KOTM. THUS ENTIRE PERIOD IS VFR WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
MID CLOUD CIGS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND BECOME SLY/SELY OVERNIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 272347
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND 500MB VORT MAX WILL CUT
ACROSS NORTHWEST TO SOUTH-CENTRAL IOWA THIS EVENING. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH OVERALL LOCATION OF POPS THIS EVENING WITH THE
HRRR ROUGHLY 2 MAYBE 3 HOURS TOO FAST WITH ONSET OF PRECIP COMPARED
TO OTHER HIRES MODELS. LEANED TOWARD THE RAP/SREF/HOPWRF BLEND FOR
TIMING.

THE SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE 500MB NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
ENTER THE STATE BY AROUND 00Z WITH ONSET OF PRECIP B/T 00Z-02Z OVER
WESTERN IOWA. IT WILL TAKE A LITTLE TIME FOR SURFACE LAYER TO BECOME
SATURATED...IF AT ALL...THIS EVENING WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. STILL...THERE IS A BRIEF STINT WHEN THE FORCING IN
THE DENDRITIC LAYER WILL CAUSE IT TO SNOW HARD ENOUGH FOR IT TO
REACH THE SURFACE AND ACCUMULATE. MAINLY A FEW TENTHS OF INCH
POSSIBLE AND NO MORE THAN A HALF INCH ANTICIPATED OVER THE
SOUTHWEST. INCREASED POPS WITH HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN SNOW AND ONLY
SOME MINOR TWEAKS WITH THE SNOW AMOUNTS. MAY SEE SOME FZDZ ON THE
TALE END OF THE EVENT WITH THE COLUMN LOSING ICE INTRODUCTION EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 311 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO PREVIOUS CHALLENGES COMING UP IN THE EXTENDED
PACKAGE. BY EARLY SATURDAY THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIGGING
SOUTHEAST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE H500 UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE
EXITING SOUTHWEST IOWA...TAKING ANY RESIDUAL LIGHT SNOW AWAY FROM
THE REGION. WITH THE HIGH AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUING...NEXT
UPSTREAM WAVE IS JUST ENTERING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM NEAR
WASHINGTON/BC AREAS. WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE SYSTEM NICELY AND
EXPECTED TRAJECTORY BRINGS THE WAVE INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY
06Z SUNDAY. JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM A SECOND SYSTEM
OVER CENTRAL CANADA WILL BE INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS...RESULTING IN STRONGER WARM AIR ADVECTION MOVING NORTH AS
WELL AS AN ADIABATIC WARMING COMPONENT AIDING IN WARMING WEST OF
THE REGION. SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THE
FORCING/MOISTURE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THIS FAST MOVING
SYSTEM. THE MODELS REMAIN SPLIT WITH THE GFS/NAM DRIER THAN THE
GEM/EURO THOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A TREND IN THE PAST RUN FOR BETTER
CONSISTENCY IN AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...NOT SO MUCH ON TIMING.
THE LATTER WILL HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPLICATIONS ON DAYTIME HIGHS ON
SUNDAY WITH A SPREAD OF ABOUT 10 DEGREES BETWEEN THE TWO PAIRS OF
MODELS MENTIONED ABOVE. WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION BRIEFLY RETURNING
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM SUNDAY...WILL CONTINUE TO LEAN
TOWARD THE EURO/GEM THERMAL STRUCTURE ALOFT AND COOLER DAYTIME
HIGHS. WINDS MAY BECOME AN ISSUE FOR SUNDAY AS STRONGER NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MIXED LAYER TOP
WINDS APPROACHING 40KT OR HIGHER AT KALO AND KMCW AND MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER SOME HEADLINES FOR WIND IN THE NEXT FEW SHIFTS. BY MONDAY
...ANOTHER FAST MOVING WAVE WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST...TRACKING JUST
NORTH OF IOWA ACROSS CENTRAL OR NORTHERN MN. THIS WILL KEEP ALL OF
THE FORCING NORTH OF THE AREA WITH THE ONLY IMPACT TO THE FORECAST BEING
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES. HAVE RAISED HIGHS ON MONDAY TO THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S GIVEN THE CONSENSUS H850 READINGS OF 6C TO 9C...
MODEST WEST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...AND SOME SUNSHINE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE GFS/EURO ARE COMING INTO MORE AGREEMENT
FOR THE TUE-THU PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK WITH ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
TO CONTINUE. INCREASING MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/GULF
WILL BE INJECTED INTO THE MIDWEEK SYSTEM. THE TIMING IS CRITICAL
FOR ANY THREAT FOR THUNDER OR SVR POTENTIAL. THE 12Z GFS IS NOW
ADVERTISING A FAIR AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY ON WEDNESDAY...A CHANGE
FROM THE PAST 2 DAYS AND THE NEW EURO IS ALSO SHOWING THUNDER FOR
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. A QUICK LOOK AT BOTH MODELS HAVE THE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXES CONTINUING TO LAG THE LOW LEVEL
H850 FORCING AND MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WITH FEATURES OUT OF
PHASE...LIKELY THAT ANY SEVERE THAT MIGHT DEVELOP WOULD NOT BE
LONG LASTING OR EXTENSIVE...AND MAINLY A RESULT OF INCREASING
INSTABILITY LATE DAY TO EARLY EVENING. THIS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
ACROSS THE WEST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WILL
TREND TOWARD BLENDED POP FOR THE DAY WITH THUNDER MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AND EVENING HOURS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY
SOME COOLER AIR ARRIVES ONCE AGAIN WITH A SHIELD OF OVERRUNNING
PRECIPITATION AND POSSIBLE THUNDER. PATTERN LOOKING WETTER WITH
SOUTHERN STREAM BECOMING MORE ACTIVE. COLDER WEATHER RETURNS BY
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2015

LIGHT SNOW WILL DROP FROM THE DAKOTAS/MN BORDER INTO WRN IA
TONIGHT BUT WILL LARGELY LEAVE TAF SITES UNAFFECTED WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN LOWERING VFR CLOUDINESS AND POTENTIALLY SOME VIRGA AT
KFOD/KDSM/KOTM. THUS ENTIRE PERIOD IS VFR WITH NOTHING MORE THAN
MID CLOUD CIGS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND BECOME SLY/SELY OVERNIGHT INTO SAT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...SMALL





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