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000
FXUS63 KDMX 260849
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
MAIN WESTERN US TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL/NW TEXAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION AS WELL...AND WITH ENERGY FROM THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONGER IN THE EVENING THEN WEAKENS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH INSTABILITY WANING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SOME SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL
HOWEVER IT LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH EAST BY LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH OF
THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE STATE AS
WELL WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NAM TRIES TO HANG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
PUSH IT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THUS HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND
STUCK WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN US FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AGAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FOR LATE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH A TURN TOWARD
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PRECIP TRENDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CURRENT POTENT SHORT WAVE ALONG THE ERN OK/KS BORDER WILL
PUSH A SHARP LOBE OF THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING THROUGH IA
TODAY.  MUCH OF THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z...HOWEVER LINGERING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DURING THE
EVENING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST.  ANY PRECIP THREAT THEN LOOKS TO FADE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING LEADING TO A BREAK THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT OR MOISTURE.

THE NEXT PRECIP WINDOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE REMNANTS OF
CURRENT CA/NV TROUGH.  ITS APPROACH INTO THU WILL REBUILD DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STARTING ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FORCING WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY WEAK/MODERATE ISENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THU INTO THU NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES
THEN ARISE INTO FRI HOWEVER WITH 00Z GFS SPINNING UP A MUCH
STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN A
DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION AND NOTED QG FORCING LINGERING OVER
IA...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS...FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SUGGESTS A WEAKER
SOLUTION...ITS 12Z ENSEMBLE RUN IS MORE GFS-LIKE WITH THE CMC/GDPS
HINTING TOWARD A STRONGER SOLUTION AS WELL. PWATS AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS ARE NOT EXTREME DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINS
CONSIDERING THE SLOW SYSTEM MOVEMENT. GFS QPF THROUGH SAT IS FOUR
TO SIX INCHES OVER NRN IA AND WHILE IT IS LIKELY OVERDONE DUE TO
BEING THE STRONGER OUTLIER....IT IS INDICATIVE OF HIGHER END
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE MONITORED CONSIDERING
THE NARROW SWATH OF TWO TO THREE INCH RAINS THAT OCCURRED SINCE
MON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CRAWFORD...CARROLL AND CALHOUN COUNTIES.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...ALL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
WITH HIGHS STAYING NO BETTER THAN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 06Z WITH
JUST ISOLD SHRA/TSRA REMAINING. HOWEVER...MORE STORMS ARE ALREADY
FORMING ACROSS MISSOURI AND SHOULD EXPAND UP ACROSS IOWA LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 09Z...AND WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT OTM AND
PROBABLY DSM AND ALO. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
TSRA AT DSM/OTM...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
ALSO OCCUR DURING THIS WINDOW. FROM ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY ONWARD
THERE MAY STILL BE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
LOWER...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW VFR CIGS AROUND
FL030-045 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 260849
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
MAIN WESTERN US TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL/NW TEXAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION AS WELL...AND WITH ENERGY FROM THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONGER IN THE EVENING THEN WEAKENS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH INSTABILITY WANING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SOME SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL
HOWEVER IT LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH EAST BY LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH OF
THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE STATE AS
WELL WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NAM TRIES TO HANG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
PUSH IT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THUS HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND
STUCK WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN US FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AGAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FOR LATE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH A TURN TOWARD
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PRECIP TRENDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CURRENT POTENT SHORT WAVE ALONG THE ERN OK/KS BORDER WILL
PUSH A SHARP LOBE OF THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING THROUGH IA
TODAY.  MUCH OF THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z...HOWEVER LINGERING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DURING THE
EVENING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST.  ANY PRECIP THREAT THEN LOOKS TO FADE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING LEADING TO A BREAK THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT OR MOISTURE.

THE NEXT PRECIP WINDOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE REMNANTS OF
CURRENT CA/NV TROUGH.  ITS APPROACH INTO THU WILL REBUILD DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STARTING ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FORCING WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY WEAK/MODERATE ISENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THU INTO THU NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES
THEN ARISE INTO FRI HOWEVER WITH 00Z GFS SPINNING UP A MUCH
STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN A
DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION AND NOTED QG FORCING LINGERING OVER
IA...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS...FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SUGGESTS A WEAKER
SOLUTION...ITS 12Z ENSEMBLE RUN IS MORE GFS-LIKE WITH THE CMC/GDPS
HINTING TOWARD A STRONGER SOLUTION AS WELL. PWATS AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS ARE NOT EXTREME DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINS
CONSIDERING THE SLOW SYSTEM MOVEMENT. GFS QPF THROUGH SAT IS FOUR
TO SIX INCHES OVER NRN IA AND WHILE IT IS LIKELY OVERDONE DUE TO
BEING THE STRONGER OUTLIER....IT IS INDICATIVE OF HIGHER END
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE MONITORED CONSIDERING
THE NARROW SWATH OF TWO TO THREE INCH RAINS THAT OCCURRED SINCE
MON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CRAWFORD...CARROLL AND CALHOUN COUNTIES.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...ALL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
WITH HIGHS STAYING NO BETTER THAN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 06Z WITH
JUST ISOLD SHRA/TSRA REMAINING. HOWEVER...MORE STORMS ARE ALREADY
FORMING ACROSS MISSOURI AND SHOULD EXPAND UP ACROSS IOWA LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 09Z...AND WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT OTM AND
PROBABLY DSM AND ALO. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
TSRA AT DSM/OTM...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
ALSO OCCUR DURING THIS WINDOW. FROM ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY ONWARD
THERE MAY STILL BE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
LOWER...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW VFR CIGS AROUND
FL030-045 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 260849
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
MAIN WESTERN US TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL/NW TEXAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION AS WELL...AND WITH ENERGY FROM THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONGER IN THE EVENING THEN WEAKENS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH INSTABILITY WANING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SOME SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL
HOWEVER IT LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH EAST BY LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH OF
THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE STATE AS
WELL WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NAM TRIES TO HANG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
PUSH IT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THUS HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND
STUCK WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN US FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AGAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FOR LATE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH A TURN TOWARD
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PRECIP TRENDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CURRENT POTENT SHORT WAVE ALONG THE ERN OK/KS BORDER WILL
PUSH A SHARP LOBE OF THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING THROUGH IA
TODAY.  MUCH OF THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z...HOWEVER LINGERING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DURING THE
EVENING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST.  ANY PRECIP THREAT THEN LOOKS TO FADE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING LEADING TO A BREAK THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT OR MOISTURE.

THE NEXT PRECIP WINDOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE REMNANTS OF
CURRENT CA/NV TROUGH.  ITS APPROACH INTO THU WILL REBUILD DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STARTING ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FORCING WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY WEAK/MODERATE ISENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THU INTO THU NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES
THEN ARISE INTO FRI HOWEVER WITH 00Z GFS SPINNING UP A MUCH
STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN A
DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION AND NOTED QG FORCING LINGERING OVER
IA...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS...FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SUGGESTS A WEAKER
SOLUTION...ITS 12Z ENSEMBLE RUN IS MORE GFS-LIKE WITH THE CMC/GDPS
HINTING TOWARD A STRONGER SOLUTION AS WELL. PWATS AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS ARE NOT EXTREME DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINS
CONSIDERING THE SLOW SYSTEM MOVEMENT. GFS QPF THROUGH SAT IS FOUR
TO SIX INCHES OVER NRN IA AND WHILE IT IS LIKELY OVERDONE DUE TO
BEING THE STRONGER OUTLIER....IT IS INDICATIVE OF HIGHER END
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE MONITORED CONSIDERING
THE NARROW SWATH OF TWO TO THREE INCH RAINS THAT OCCURRED SINCE
MON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CRAWFORD...CARROLL AND CALHOUN COUNTIES.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...ALL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
WITH HIGHS STAYING NO BETTER THAN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 06Z WITH
JUST ISOLD SHRA/TSRA REMAINING. HOWEVER...MORE STORMS ARE ALREADY
FORMING ACROSS MISSOURI AND SHOULD EXPAND UP ACROSS IOWA LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 09Z...AND WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT OTM AND
PROBABLY DSM AND ALO. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
TSRA AT DSM/OTM...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
ALSO OCCUR DURING THIS WINDOW. FROM ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY ONWARD
THERE MAY STILL BE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
LOWER...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW VFR CIGS AROUND
FL030-045 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260849
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
349 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
MAIN WESTERN US TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL/NW TEXAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION AS WELL...AND WITH ENERGY FROM THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONGER IN THE EVENING THEN WEAKENS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH INSTABILITY WANING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SOME SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL
HOWEVER IT LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH EAST BY LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH OF
THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE STATE AS
WELL WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NAM TRIES TO HANG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
PUSH IT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THUS HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND
STUCK WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN US FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AGAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FOR LATE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH A TURN TOWARD
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 348 AM CDT TUE MAY 26 2015

PRECIP TRENDS WILL REMAIN THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. CURRENT POTENT SHORT WAVE ALONG THE ERN OK/KS BORDER WILL
PUSH A SHARP LOBE OF THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING THROUGH IA
TODAY.  MUCH OF THIS SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL BE THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES BY 00Z...HOWEVER LINGERING WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS DURING THE
EVENING CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST.  ANY PRECIP THREAT THEN LOOKS TO FADE
WITH LOSS OF HEATING LEADING TO A BREAK THROUGH AT LEAST WED NIGHT
WITH SHORT WAVE RIDGING AND LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LIFT OR MOISTURE.

THE NEXT PRECIP WINDOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTLE REMNANTS OF
CURRENT CA/NV TROUGH.  ITS APPROACH INTO THU WILL REBUILD DEEPER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY STARTING ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF POPS.
FORCING WILL INITIALLY BE DRIVEN BY WEAK/MODERATE ISENT LIFT AND
MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THU INTO THU NIGHT. MODEL DIFFERENCES
THEN ARISE INTO FRI HOWEVER WITH 00Z GFS SPINNING UP A MUCH
STRONGER MID LEVEL WAVE THAN THE 00Z ECMWF. THIS RESULTS IN A
DEEPER SURFACE REFLECTION AND NOTED QG FORCING LINGERING OVER
IA...ESPECIALLY NRN SECTIONS...FROM FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH THE 00Z DETERMINISTIC ECMWF SUGGESTS A WEAKER
SOLUTION...ITS 12Z ENSEMBLE RUN IS MORE GFS-LIKE WITH THE CMC/GDPS
HINTING TOWARD A STRONGER SOLUTION AS WELL. PWATS AND WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS ARE NOT EXTREME DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY EFFICIENT RAINS
CONSIDERING THE SLOW SYSTEM MOVEMENT. GFS QPF THROUGH SAT IS FOUR
TO SIX INCHES OVER NRN IA AND WHILE IT IS LIKELY OVERDONE DUE TO
BEING THE STRONGER OUTLIER....IT IS INDICATIVE OF HIGHER END
POTENTIAL. THIS WILL CERTAINLY NEED TO BE MONITORED CONSIDERING
THE NARROW SWATH OF TWO TO THREE INCH RAINS THAT OCCURRED SINCE
MON ACROSS PORTIONS OF CRAWFORD...CARROLL AND CALHOUN COUNTIES.

REGARDLESS OF HOW THE MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM PLAYS OUT...ALL
SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SOMEWHAT DRIER WEATHER AND CONTINUED COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO START THE NEXT WEEK. POPS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE
WITH HIGHS STAYING NO BETTER THAN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 06Z WITH
JUST ISOLD SHRA/TSRA REMAINING. HOWEVER...MORE STORMS ARE ALREADY
FORMING ACROSS MISSOURI AND SHOULD EXPAND UP ACROSS IOWA LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 09Z...AND WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT OTM AND
PROBABLY DSM AND ALO. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
TSRA AT DSM/OTM...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
ALSO OCCUR DURING THIS WINDOW. FROM ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY ONWARD
THERE MAY STILL BE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
LOWER...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW VFR CIGS AROUND
FL030-045 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260440
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1140 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IOWA...FORCED BY ELONGATED VORT MAX
WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN/WI. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
UPSTREAM TO KS/NE/MO REGION. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN FIRING IN KS THIS
AFTN...IN A QUITE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IMPULSE MOVING INTO WRN OKLAHOMA
IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE REGION OF ASCENT AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD.
UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...WHERE
MUCAPES ARE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. THUS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD LATER
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING AS THE IMPULSE AND PRECEDING ASCENT
REGION TRACKS NORTHEAST. BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...HOWEVER...WHICH
DECREASES IN TIME THIS EVENING. THUS ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE WARM LAYER DECREASES
SUFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...THE COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR VALUES THAT
WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...WOULD SUPPORT
ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO PROVIDE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBILITY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION...AND CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST IOWA...THERE IS ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. AREA OF STEEP MIDLEVEL RATES HAS BEEN
WORKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. AS THOSE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WORK INTO
WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...AGAIN CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. IF CONVECTION DOES BECOME ESTABLISHED THERE THEN
THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS AS THE CORFIDI VECTORS
WOULD BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STORM MOTION...AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVES LITTLE IF ANY OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EXTENDED. EXPECT
ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AS WEAK TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE STATE...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY...AGAIN PRIMARILY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. HOWEVER...FEEL WILL SEE SIMILAR SET UP TO TODAY WITH
GENERALLY A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS LLJ DIMINISHES. BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR...THOUGH
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO PERSIST
AND MAY SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...AND MAY HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIPITATION TOO LONG TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS CANADA...BREAKING RIDGE DOWN
AND BRINING BOUNDARY TO IOWA WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY WEATHER FOCUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...FINALLY BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO IOWA LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WILL SEE GOOD SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
AND MOISTURE PUSHING INTO IOWA. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS NEAR
GOING. BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY. GFS
REMAINS LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM...HANGING BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE ECMWF IS PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...GEM HAS BEGUN TO TREND TOWARDS GFS...AND HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS INTO LATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MUCH
COOLER BEHIND BOUNDARY...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EXPECTED
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 06Z WITH
JUST ISOLD SHRA/TSRA REMAINING. HOWEVER...MORE STORMS ARE ALREADY
FORMING ACROSS MISSOURI AND SHOULD EXPAND UP ACROSS IOWA LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 09Z...AND WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT OTM AND
PROBABLY DSM AND ALO. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
TSRA AT DSM/OTM...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
ALSO OCCUR DURING THIS WINDOW. FROM ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY ONWARD
THERE MAY STILL BE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
LOWER...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW VFR CIGS AROUND
FL030-045 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THREAT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS LOW. RAINFALL RATES EARLY TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH AND RAINFALL PERSISTENT ENOUGH. LATER TODAY...SCATTERED
NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDITIVE EFFECTS OF YESTERDAYS
THROUGH TUESDAYS RAINFALL...AND SUBSEQUENT EVENTS. SOME URBAN
RUNOFF AND PONDING OF WATER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG/REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260440
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1140 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IOWA...FORCED BY ELONGATED VORT MAX
WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN/WI. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
UPSTREAM TO KS/NE/MO REGION. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN FIRING IN KS THIS
AFTN...IN A QUITE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IMPULSE MOVING INTO WRN OKLAHOMA
IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE REGION OF ASCENT AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD.
UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...WHERE
MUCAPES ARE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. THUS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD LATER
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING AS THE IMPULSE AND PRECEDING ASCENT
REGION TRACKS NORTHEAST. BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...HOWEVER...WHICH
DECREASES IN TIME THIS EVENING. THUS ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE WARM LAYER DECREASES
SUFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...THE COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR VALUES THAT
WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...WOULD SUPPORT
ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO PROVIDE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBILITY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION...AND CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST IOWA...THERE IS ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. AREA OF STEEP MIDLEVEL RATES HAS BEEN
WORKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. AS THOSE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WORK INTO
WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...AGAIN CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. IF CONVECTION DOES BECOME ESTABLISHED THERE THEN
THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS AS THE CORFIDI VECTORS
WOULD BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STORM MOTION...AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVES LITTLE IF ANY OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EXTENDED. EXPECT
ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AS WEAK TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE STATE...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY...AGAIN PRIMARILY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. HOWEVER...FEEL WILL SEE SIMILAR SET UP TO TODAY WITH
GENERALLY A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS LLJ DIMINISHES. BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR...THOUGH
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO PERSIST
AND MAY SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...AND MAY HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIPITATION TOO LONG TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS CANADA...BREAKING RIDGE DOWN
AND BRINING BOUNDARY TO IOWA WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY WEATHER FOCUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...FINALLY BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO IOWA LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WILL SEE GOOD SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
AND MOISTURE PUSHING INTO IOWA. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS NEAR
GOING. BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY. GFS
REMAINS LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM...HANGING BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE ECMWF IS PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...GEM HAS BEGUN TO TREND TOWARDS GFS...AND HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS INTO LATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MUCH
COOLER BEHIND BOUNDARY...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EXPECTED
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 06Z WITH
JUST ISOLD SHRA/TSRA REMAINING. HOWEVER...MORE STORMS ARE ALREADY
FORMING ACROSS MISSOURI AND SHOULD EXPAND UP ACROSS IOWA LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 09Z...AND WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT OTM AND
PROBABLY DSM AND ALO. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
TSRA AT DSM/OTM...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
ALSO OCCUR DURING THIS WINDOW. FROM ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY ONWARD
THERE MAY STILL BE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
LOWER...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW VFR CIGS AROUND
FL030-045 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THREAT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS LOW. RAINFALL RATES EARLY TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH AND RAINFALL PERSISTENT ENOUGH. LATER TODAY...SCATTERED
NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDITIVE EFFECTS OF YESTERDAYS
THROUGH TUESDAYS RAINFALL...AND SUBSEQUENT EVENTS. SOME URBAN
RUNOFF AND PONDING OF WATER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG/REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 260440
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1140 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IOWA...FORCED BY ELONGATED VORT MAX
WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN/WI. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
UPSTREAM TO KS/NE/MO REGION. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN FIRING IN KS THIS
AFTN...IN A QUITE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IMPULSE MOVING INTO WRN OKLAHOMA
IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE REGION OF ASCENT AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD.
UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...WHERE
MUCAPES ARE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. THUS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD LATER
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING AS THE IMPULSE AND PRECEDING ASCENT
REGION TRACKS NORTHEAST. BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...HOWEVER...WHICH
DECREASES IN TIME THIS EVENING. THUS ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE WARM LAYER DECREASES
SUFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...THE COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR VALUES THAT
WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...WOULD SUPPORT
ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO PROVIDE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBILITY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION...AND CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST IOWA...THERE IS ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. AREA OF STEEP MIDLEVEL RATES HAS BEEN
WORKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. AS THOSE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WORK INTO
WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...AGAIN CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. IF CONVECTION DOES BECOME ESTABLISHED THERE THEN
THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS AS THE CORFIDI VECTORS
WOULD BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STORM MOTION...AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVES LITTLE IF ANY OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EXTENDED. EXPECT
ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AS WEAK TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE STATE...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY...AGAIN PRIMARILY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. HOWEVER...FEEL WILL SEE SIMILAR SET UP TO TODAY WITH
GENERALLY A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS LLJ DIMINISHES. BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR...THOUGH
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO PERSIST
AND MAY SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...AND MAY HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIPITATION TOO LONG TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS CANADA...BREAKING RIDGE DOWN
AND BRINING BOUNDARY TO IOWA WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY WEATHER FOCUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...FINALLY BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO IOWA LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WILL SEE GOOD SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
AND MOISTURE PUSHING INTO IOWA. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS NEAR
GOING. BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY. GFS
REMAINS LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM...HANGING BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE ECMWF IS PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...GEM HAS BEGUN TO TREND TOWARDS GFS...AND HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS INTO LATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MUCH
COOLER BEHIND BOUNDARY...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EXPECTED
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FIRST ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY 06Z WITH
JUST ISOLD SHRA/TSRA REMAINING. HOWEVER...MORE STORMS ARE ALREADY
FORMING ACROSS MISSOURI AND SHOULD EXPAND UP ACROSS IOWA LATER
TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER 09Z...AND WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT OTM AND
PROBABLY DSM AND ALO. HAVE INCLUDED TEMPOS FOR MVFR CONDITIONS IN
TSRA AT DSM/OTM...BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS MAY
ALSO OCCUR DURING THIS WINDOW. FROM ABOUT MIDDAY TUESDAY ONWARD
THERE MAY STILL BE ISOLD SHRA/TSRA BUT THE PROBABILITY IS
LOWER...AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW VFR CIGS AROUND
FL030-045 FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THREAT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS LOW. RAINFALL RATES EARLY TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH AND RAINFALL PERSISTENT ENOUGH. LATER TODAY...SCATTERED
NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDITIVE EFFECTS OF YESTERDAYS
THROUGH TUESDAYS RAINFALL...AND SUBSEQUENT EVENTS. SOME URBAN
RUNOFF AND PONDING OF WATER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG/REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 252326
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
626 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IOWA...FORCED BY ELONGATED VORT MAX
WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN/WI. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
UPSTREAM TO KS/NE/MO REGION. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN FIRING IN KS THIS
AFTN...IN A QUITE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IMPULSE MOVING INTO WRN OKLAHOMA
IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE REGION OF ASCENT AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD.
UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...WHERE
MUCAPES ARE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. THUS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD LATER
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING AS THE IMPULSE AND PRECEDING ASCENT
REGION TRACKS NORTHEAST. BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...HOWEVER...WHICH
DECREASES IN TIME THIS EVENING. THUS ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE WARM LAYER DECREASES
SUFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...THE COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR VALUES THAT
WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...WOULD SUPPORT
ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO PROVIDE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBILITY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION...AND CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST IOWA...THERE IS ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. AREA OF STEEP MIDLEVEL RATES HAS BEEN
WORKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. AS THOSE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WORK INTO
WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...AGAIN CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. IF CONVECTION DOES BECOME ESTABLISHED THERE THEN
THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS AS THE CORFIDI VECTORS
WOULD BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STORM MOTION...AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVES LITTLE IF ANY OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EXTENDED. EXPECT
ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AS WEAK TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE STATE...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY...AGAIN PRIMARILY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. HOWEVER...FEEL WILL SEE SIMILAR SET UP TO TODAY WITH
GENERALLY A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS LLJ DIMINISHES. BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR...THOUGH
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO PERSIST
AND MAY SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...AND MAY HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIPITATION TOO LONG TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS CANADA...BREAKING RIDGE DOWN
AND BRINING BOUNDARY TO IOWA WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY WEATHER FOCUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...FINALLY BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO IOWA LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WILL SEE GOOD SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
AND MOISTURE PUSHING INTO IOWA. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS NEAR
GOING. BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY. GFS
REMAINS LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM...HANGING BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE ECMWF IS PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...GEM HAS BEGUN TO TREND TOWARDS GFS...AND HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS INTO LATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MUCH
COOLER BEHIND BOUNDARY...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EXPECTED
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING PERIODS OF LOCALIZED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THESE CONDITION AT A GIVEN TERMINAL IS LOW
SO HAVE PRIMARILY HANDLED WITH VCTS IN THE 00Z TAFS...BUT OVERALL
MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR TSRA AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IS
FROM ABOUT 03Z-09Z...WITH SOME LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND BR
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT. ON TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL BUT WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THREAT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS LOW. RAINFALL RATES EARLY TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH AND RAINFALL PERSISTENT ENOUGH. LATER TODAY...SCATTERED
NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDITIVE EFFECTS OF YESTERDAYS
THROUGH TUESDAYS RAINFALL...AND SUBSEQUENT EVENTS. SOME URBAN
RUNOFF AND PONDING OF WATER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG/REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 252326
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
626 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IOWA...FORCED BY ELONGATED VORT MAX
WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN/WI. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
UPSTREAM TO KS/NE/MO REGION. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN FIRING IN KS THIS
AFTN...IN A QUITE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IMPULSE MOVING INTO WRN OKLAHOMA
IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE REGION OF ASCENT AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD.
UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...WHERE
MUCAPES ARE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. THUS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD LATER
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING AS THE IMPULSE AND PRECEDING ASCENT
REGION TRACKS NORTHEAST. BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...HOWEVER...WHICH
DECREASES IN TIME THIS EVENING. THUS ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE WARM LAYER DECREASES
SUFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...THE COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR VALUES THAT
WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...WOULD SUPPORT
ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO PROVIDE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBILITY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION...AND CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST IOWA...THERE IS ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. AREA OF STEEP MIDLEVEL RATES HAS BEEN
WORKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. AS THOSE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WORK INTO
WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...AGAIN CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. IF CONVECTION DOES BECOME ESTABLISHED THERE THEN
THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS AS THE CORFIDI VECTORS
WOULD BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STORM MOTION...AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVES LITTLE IF ANY OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EXTENDED. EXPECT
ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AS WEAK TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE STATE...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY...AGAIN PRIMARILY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. HOWEVER...FEEL WILL SEE SIMILAR SET UP TO TODAY WITH
GENERALLY A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS LLJ DIMINISHES. BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR...THOUGH
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO PERSIST
AND MAY SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...AND MAY HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIPITATION TOO LONG TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS CANADA...BREAKING RIDGE DOWN
AND BRINING BOUNDARY TO IOWA WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY WEATHER FOCUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...FINALLY BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO IOWA LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WILL SEE GOOD SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
AND MOISTURE PUSHING INTO IOWA. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS NEAR
GOING. BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY. GFS
REMAINS LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM...HANGING BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE ECMWF IS PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...GEM HAS BEGUN TO TREND TOWARDS GFS...AND HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS INTO LATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MUCH
COOLER BEHIND BOUNDARY...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EXPECTED
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
PRODUCING PERIODS OF LOCALIZED MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS.
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING OF THESE CONDITION AT A GIVEN TERMINAL IS LOW
SO HAVE PRIMARILY HANDLED WITH VCTS IN THE 00Z TAFS...BUT OVERALL
MOST LIKELY WINDOW FOR TSRA AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IS
FROM ABOUT 03Z-09Z...WITH SOME LINGERING DEBRIS CLOUDS AND BR
POSSIBLE AFTER THAT. ON TUESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL BUT WITH A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHRA AND A FEW TSRA ONCE
AGAIN.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THREAT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS LOW. RAINFALL RATES EARLY TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH AND RAINFALL PERSISTENT ENOUGH. LATER TODAY...SCATTERED
NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDITIVE EFFECTS OF YESTERDAYS
THROUGH TUESDAYS RAINFALL...AND SUBSEQUENT EVENTS. SOME URBAN
RUNOFF AND PONDING OF WATER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...LEE
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG/REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 252045
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IOWA...FORCED BY ELONGATED VORT MAX
WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN/WI. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
UPSTREAM TO KS/NE/MO REGION. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN FIRING IN KS THIS
AFTN...IN A QUITE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IMPULSE MOVING INTO WRN OKLAHOMA
IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE REGION OF ASCENT AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD.
UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...WHERE
MUCAPES ARE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. THUS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD LATER
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING AS THE IMPULSE AND PRECEDING ASCENT
REGION TRACKS NORTHEAST. BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...HOWEVER...WHICH
DECREASES IN TIME THIS EVENING. THUS ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE WARM LAYER DECREASES
SUFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...THE COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR VALUES THAT
WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...WOULD SUPPORT
ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO PROVIDE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBILITY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION...AND CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST IOWA...THERE IS ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. AREA OF STEEP MIDLEVEL RATES HAS BEEN
WORKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. AS THOSE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WORK INTO
WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...AGAIN CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. IF CONVECTION DOES BECOME ESTABLISHED THERE THEN
THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS AS THE CORFIDI VECTORS
WOULD BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STORM MOTION...AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVES LITTLE IF ANY OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EXTENDED. EXPECT
ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AS WEAK TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE STATE...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY...AGAIN PRIMARILY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. HOWEVER...FEEL WILL SEE SIMILAR SET UP TO TODAY WITH
GENERALLY A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS LLJ DIMINISHES. BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR...THOUGH
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO PERSIST
AND MAY SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...AND MAY HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIPITATION TOO LONG TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS CANADA...BREAKING RIDGE DOWN
AND BRINING BOUNDARY TO IOWA WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY WEATHER FOCUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...FINALLY BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO IOWA LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WILL SEE GOOD SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
AND MOISTURE PUSHING INTO IOWA. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS NEAR
GOING. BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY. GFS
REMAINS LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM...HANGING BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE ECMWF IS PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...GEM HAS BEGUN TO TREND TOWARDS GFS...AND HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS INTO LATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MUCH
COOLER BEHIND BOUNDARY...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EXPECTED
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA RETURN LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE ESPECIALLY
FOR THE KFOD...KDSM AND KMCW TERMINALS. MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT WORST DUE MAINLY TO CIGS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN AND THEN
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THREAT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS LOW. RAINFALL RATES EARLY TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH AND RAINFALL PERSISTENT ENOUGH. LATER TODAY...SCATTERED
NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDITIVE EFFECTS OF YESTERDAYS
THROUGH TUESDAYS RAINFALL...AND SUBSEQUENT EVENTS. SOME URBAN
RUNOFF AND PONDING OF WATER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...REV
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG/REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 252045
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

FORECAST CHALLENGES FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD INCLUDE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS
EVENING...AS WELL AS CONVECTIVE TRENDS OVERNIGHT.

CONVECTION ACROSS FAR NORTHERN IOWA...FORCED BY ELONGATED VORT MAX
WILL CONTINUE LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD INTO MN/WI. ATTENTION THEN TURNS
UPSTREAM TO KS/NE/MO REGION. CONVECTION HAS BEGUN FIRING IN KS THIS
AFTN...IN A QUITE UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IMPULSE MOVING INTO WRN OKLAHOMA
IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE REGION OF ASCENT AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD.
UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXTENDS NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN IOWA...WHERE
MUCAPES ARE AS HIGH AS 2000 J/KG PER SPC MESOANALYSIS. THUS
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD LATER
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING AS THE IMPULSE AND PRECEDING ASCENT
REGION TRACKS NORTHEAST. BUFR FCST SOUNDINGS SHOWING AN ELEVATED
WARM LAYER ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN IOWA...HOWEVER...WHICH
DECREASES IN TIME THIS EVENING. THUS ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPMENT MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL THE WARM LAYER DECREASES
SUFFICIENTLY. ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...THE COMBINATION OF THE SHEAR VALUES THAT
WILL EXIST...ALONG WITH THE THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE...WOULD SUPPORT
ENOUGH ORGANIZATION TO PROVIDE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. HEAVY
RAINFALL WOULD ALSO BE POSSIBILITY...BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY
WIDESPREAD OR SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD THREAT.

SLIGHTLY WEST OF THE AFOREMENTIONED REGION...AND CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY IN NORTHWEST IOWA...THERE IS ADDITIONAL RISK FOR
CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. AREA OF STEEP MIDLEVEL RATES HAS BEEN
WORKING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA. AS THOSE STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WORK INTO
WESTERN IOWA THIS EVENING...CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE STATE...AGAIN CLOSER TO THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY. IF CONVECTION DOES BECOME ESTABLISHED THERE THEN
THERE WILL BE A POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING STORMS AS THE CORFIDI VECTORS
WOULD BE NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE MEAN STORM MOTION...AS THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY MOVES LITTLE IF ANY OVERNIGHT.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 304 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EXTENDED. EXPECT
ONGOING PRECIPITATION TO LINGER THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST AS WEAK TROUGH BEGINS TO PUSH EAST
THROUGH IOWA THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS
THE STATE...WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR CONTINUED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY...AGAIN PRIMARILY IN THE CENTRAL AND
EAST. HOWEVER...FEEL WILL SEE SIMILAR SET UP TO TODAY WITH
GENERALLY A BREAK FROM PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE LATE MORNING
AND EARLY AFTERNOON AS LLJ DIMINISHES. BOUNDARY WILL GENERALLY BE
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA BY 00Z WEDNESDAY WHICH MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. CAPE VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR 1000 J/KG WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR...THOUGH
SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ANY STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO PERSIST
AND MAY SEE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING BRINGING AN END TO PRECIPITATION
CHANCES...AND MAY HAVE HELD ONTO PRECIPITATION TOO LONG TUESDAY
NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AS WEAK RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS AREA.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES EAST ACROSS CANADA...BREAKING RIDGE DOWN
AND BRINING BOUNDARY TO IOWA WHICH WILL BE PRIMARILY WEATHER FOCUS
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. BOUNDARY WILL BE SLOW
MOVING...FINALLY BEGINNING TO PUSH INTO IOWA LATE FRIDAY.
HOWEVER...AHEAD OF BOUNDARY WILL SEE GOOD SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW
AND MOISTURE PUSHING INTO IOWA. THIS WILL HELP TO WARM
TEMPERATURES...BUT ALSO LEAD TO PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE
PERIOD...THOUGH DO NOT HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF
PRECIPITATION TRENDS THROUGH FRIDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS NEAR
GOING. BEST CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL COME FRIDAY. GFS
REMAINS LEAST PROGRESSIVE WITH SYSTEM...HANGING BOUNDARY ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI THROUGH SUNDAY...WHILE ECMWF IS PROGRESSIVE.
HOWEVER...GEM HAS BEGUN TO TREND TOWARDS GFS...AND HAVE LEFT
CHANCE POPS INTO LATE SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MUCH
COOLER BEHIND BOUNDARY...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY EXPECTED
TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA RETURN LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE ESPECIALLY
FOR THE KFOD...KDSM AND KMCW TERMINALS. MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT WORST DUE MAINLY TO CIGS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN AND THEN
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THREAT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS LOW. RAINFALL RATES EARLY TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH AND RAINFALL PERSISTENT ENOUGH. LATER TODAY...SCATTERED
NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDITIVE EFFECTS OF YESTERDAYS
THROUGH TUESDAYS RAINFALL...AND SUBSEQUENT EVENTS. SOME URBAN
RUNOFF AND PONDING OF WATER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...REV
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG/REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 251744
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1243 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 25/18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER COMPLEX DAY AHEAD...THOUGH SYSTEM HAS NOT EVOLVED EXACTLY AS
LAST NIGHTS MODELS SUGGESTED FOR 06-12Z MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE
OVER NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AT 07Z.
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THOSE AREAS
HEADING INTO SOUTHERN IOWA NOW. HAVE UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING POP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION. FORTUNATELY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR ONE INCH AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS ARE SLIGHTLY UNDER 10KFT SO RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WILL
NOT BE AS PROLIFIC AS SUNDAY MORNINGS SHOWERS AND MORE WELL DEFINED
MCV THAT CROSSED THE AREA. SUBJECTIVE H850 00Z ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SUBTROPICAL ANCHOR HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST US WITH BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES...LOW NEAR DENVER AT 00Z. THE MAIN
MOISTURE CHANNEL HAS MOVED EAST OF IOWA NOW BUT THE LOW AND
APPROACHING FRONT LATE THIS EVENING WILL STILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH MORE CHANCES FOR STORMS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KS
TRACKS NORTHEAST...IT SHOULD EXIT EAST/NORTHEAST AREAS BETWEEN 15-
17Z. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS LIKELY SOUTHEAST THIRD...ALLOWING HIGHS
TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NORTH LOWER TO
MID 70S MORE LIKELY WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER. BETWEEN 20-00Z WILL BE
LOOKING FOR MAIN H500 WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES TO EJECT NORTHEAST
TOWARD IOWA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 1200-1900 J/KG MLCAPE BY 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. WIND FIELDS ALOFT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. CURRENTLY OUR AREA HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREATS
APPEAR TO BE WIND AND HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACTIVITY LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL TODAY MAY STILL APPROACH
.25 TO .75 INCHES WITH THE COMBINATION OF THIS MORNINGS
PRECIPITATION AND THIS AFTERNOONS EXPECTED STORMS OVER THE
WEST /NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
MAIN WESTERN US TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL/NW TEXAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION AS WELL...AND WITH ENERGY FROM THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONGER IN THE EVENING THEN WEAKENS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH INSTABILITY WANING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SOME SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL
HOWEVER IT LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH EAST BY LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH OF
THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE STATE AS
WELL WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NAM TRIES TO HANG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
PUSH IT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THUS HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND
STUCK WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN US FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AGAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FOR LATE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH A TURN TOWARD
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA RETURN LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE ESPECIALLY
FOR THE KFOD...KDSM AND KMCW TERMINALS. MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT WORST DUE MAINLY TO CIGS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN AND THEN
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THREAT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS LOW. RAINFALL RATES EARLY TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH AND RAINFALL PERSISTENT ENOUGH. LATER TODAY...SCATTERED
NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDITIVE EFFECTS OF YESTERDAYS
THROUGH TUESDAYS RAINFALL...AND SUBSEQUENT EVENTS. SOME URBAN
RUNOFF AND PONDING OF WATER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG/REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 251744
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1243 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 25/18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER COMPLEX DAY AHEAD...THOUGH SYSTEM HAS NOT EVOLVED EXACTLY AS
LAST NIGHTS MODELS SUGGESTED FOR 06-12Z MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE
OVER NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AT 07Z.
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THOSE AREAS
HEADING INTO SOUTHERN IOWA NOW. HAVE UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING POP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION. FORTUNATELY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR ONE INCH AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS ARE SLIGHTLY UNDER 10KFT SO RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WILL
NOT BE AS PROLIFIC AS SUNDAY MORNINGS SHOWERS AND MORE WELL DEFINED
MCV THAT CROSSED THE AREA. SUBJECTIVE H850 00Z ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SUBTROPICAL ANCHOR HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST US WITH BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES...LOW NEAR DENVER AT 00Z. THE MAIN
MOISTURE CHANNEL HAS MOVED EAST OF IOWA NOW BUT THE LOW AND
APPROACHING FRONT LATE THIS EVENING WILL STILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH MORE CHANCES FOR STORMS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KS
TRACKS NORTHEAST...IT SHOULD EXIT EAST/NORTHEAST AREAS BETWEEN 15-
17Z. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS LIKELY SOUTHEAST THIRD...ALLOWING HIGHS
TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NORTH LOWER TO
MID 70S MORE LIKELY WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER. BETWEEN 20-00Z WILL BE
LOOKING FOR MAIN H500 WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES TO EJECT NORTHEAST
TOWARD IOWA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 1200-1900 J/KG MLCAPE BY 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. WIND FIELDS ALOFT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. CURRENTLY OUR AREA HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREATS
APPEAR TO BE WIND AND HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACTIVITY LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL TODAY MAY STILL APPROACH
.25 TO .75 INCHES WITH THE COMBINATION OF THIS MORNINGS
PRECIPITATION AND THIS AFTERNOONS EXPECTED STORMS OVER THE
WEST /NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
MAIN WESTERN US TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL/NW TEXAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION AS WELL...AND WITH ENERGY FROM THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONGER IN THE EVENING THEN WEAKENS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH INSTABILITY WANING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SOME SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL
HOWEVER IT LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH EAST BY LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH OF
THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE STATE AS
WELL WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NAM TRIES TO HANG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
PUSH IT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THUS HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND
STUCK WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN US FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AGAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FOR LATE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH A TURN TOWARD
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA RETURN LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE ESPECIALLY
FOR THE KFOD...KDSM AND KMCW TERMINALS. MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT WORST DUE MAINLY TO CIGS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN AND THEN
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THREAT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS LOW. RAINFALL RATES EARLY TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH AND RAINFALL PERSISTENT ENOUGH. LATER TODAY...SCATTERED
NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDITIVE EFFECTS OF YESTERDAYS
THROUGH TUESDAYS RAINFALL...AND SUBSEQUENT EVENTS. SOME URBAN
RUNOFF AND PONDING OF WATER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG/REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 251744
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1243 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 25/18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER COMPLEX DAY AHEAD...THOUGH SYSTEM HAS NOT EVOLVED EXACTLY AS
LAST NIGHTS MODELS SUGGESTED FOR 06-12Z MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE
OVER NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AT 07Z.
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THOSE AREAS
HEADING INTO SOUTHERN IOWA NOW. HAVE UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING POP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION. FORTUNATELY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR ONE INCH AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS ARE SLIGHTLY UNDER 10KFT SO RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WILL
NOT BE AS PROLIFIC AS SUNDAY MORNINGS SHOWERS AND MORE WELL DEFINED
MCV THAT CROSSED THE AREA. SUBJECTIVE H850 00Z ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SUBTROPICAL ANCHOR HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST US WITH BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES...LOW NEAR DENVER AT 00Z. THE MAIN
MOISTURE CHANNEL HAS MOVED EAST OF IOWA NOW BUT THE LOW AND
APPROACHING FRONT LATE THIS EVENING WILL STILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH MORE CHANCES FOR STORMS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KS
TRACKS NORTHEAST...IT SHOULD EXIT EAST/NORTHEAST AREAS BETWEEN 15-
17Z. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS LIKELY SOUTHEAST THIRD...ALLOWING HIGHS
TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NORTH LOWER TO
MID 70S MORE LIKELY WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER. BETWEEN 20-00Z WILL BE
LOOKING FOR MAIN H500 WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES TO EJECT NORTHEAST
TOWARD IOWA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 1200-1900 J/KG MLCAPE BY 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. WIND FIELDS ALOFT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. CURRENTLY OUR AREA HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREATS
APPEAR TO BE WIND AND HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACTIVITY LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL TODAY MAY STILL APPROACH
.25 TO .75 INCHES WITH THE COMBINATION OF THIS MORNINGS
PRECIPITATION AND THIS AFTERNOONS EXPECTED STORMS OVER THE
WEST /NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
MAIN WESTERN US TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL/NW TEXAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION AS WELL...AND WITH ENERGY FROM THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONGER IN THE EVENING THEN WEAKENS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH INSTABILITY WANING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SOME SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL
HOWEVER IT LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH EAST BY LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH OF
THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE STATE AS
WELL WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NAM TRIES TO HANG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
PUSH IT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THUS HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND
STUCK WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN US FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AGAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FOR LATE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH A TURN TOWARD
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA RETURN LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE ESPECIALLY
FOR THE KFOD...KDSM AND KMCW TERMINALS. MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT WORST DUE MAINLY TO CIGS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN AND THEN
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THREAT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS LOW. RAINFALL RATES EARLY TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH AND RAINFALL PERSISTENT ENOUGH. LATER TODAY...SCATTERED
NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDITIVE EFFECTS OF YESTERDAYS
THROUGH TUESDAYS RAINFALL...AND SUBSEQUENT EVENTS. SOME URBAN
RUNOFF AND PONDING OF WATER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG/REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 251744
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1243 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

...UPDATED FOR 25/18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER COMPLEX DAY AHEAD...THOUGH SYSTEM HAS NOT EVOLVED EXACTLY AS
LAST NIGHTS MODELS SUGGESTED FOR 06-12Z MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE
OVER NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AT 07Z.
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THOSE AREAS
HEADING INTO SOUTHERN IOWA NOW. HAVE UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING POP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION. FORTUNATELY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR ONE INCH AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS ARE SLIGHTLY UNDER 10KFT SO RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WILL
NOT BE AS PROLIFIC AS SUNDAY MORNINGS SHOWERS AND MORE WELL DEFINED
MCV THAT CROSSED THE AREA. SUBJECTIVE H850 00Z ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SUBTROPICAL ANCHOR HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST US WITH BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES...LOW NEAR DENVER AT 00Z. THE MAIN
MOISTURE CHANNEL HAS MOVED EAST OF IOWA NOW BUT THE LOW AND
APPROACHING FRONT LATE THIS EVENING WILL STILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH MORE CHANCES FOR STORMS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KS
TRACKS NORTHEAST...IT SHOULD EXIT EAST/NORTHEAST AREAS BETWEEN 15-
17Z. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS LIKELY SOUTHEAST THIRD...ALLOWING HIGHS
TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NORTH LOWER TO
MID 70S MORE LIKELY WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER. BETWEEN 20-00Z WILL BE
LOOKING FOR MAIN H500 WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES TO EJECT NORTHEAST
TOWARD IOWA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 1200-1900 J/KG MLCAPE BY 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. WIND FIELDS ALOFT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. CURRENTLY OUR AREA HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREATS
APPEAR TO BE WIND AND HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACTIVITY LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL TODAY MAY STILL APPROACH
.25 TO .75 INCHES WITH THE COMBINATION OF THIS MORNINGS
PRECIPITATION AND THIS AFTERNOONS EXPECTED STORMS OVER THE
WEST /NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
MAIN WESTERN US TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL/NW TEXAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION AS WELL...AND WITH ENERGY FROM THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONGER IN THE EVENING THEN WEAKENS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH INSTABILITY WANING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SOME SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL
HOWEVER IT LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH EAST BY LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH OF
THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE STATE AS
WELL WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NAM TRIES TO HANG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
PUSH IT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THUS HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND
STUCK WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN US FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AGAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FOR LATE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH A TURN TOWARD
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 1243 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

CHANCES OF SHRA/TSRA RETURN LATER THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE ESPECIALLY
FOR THE KFOD...KDSM AND KMCW TERMINALS. MVFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AT WORST DUE MAINLY TO CIGS...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ABOVE IFR THRESHOLDS. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTN AND THEN
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THREAT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS LOW. RAINFALL RATES EARLY TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH AND RAINFALL PERSISTENT ENOUGH. LATER TODAY...SCATTERED
NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDITIVE EFFECTS OF YESTERDAYS
THROUGH TUESDAYS RAINFALL...AND SUBSEQUENT EVENTS. SOME URBAN
RUNOFF AND PONDING OF WATER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG/REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 251125
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
625 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER COMPLEX DAY AHEAD...THOUGH SYSTEM HAS NOT EVOLVED EXACTLY AS
LAST NIGHTS MODELS SUGGESTED FOR 06-12Z MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE
OVER NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AT 07Z.
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THOSE AREAS
HEADING INTO SOUTHERN IOWA NOW. HAVE UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING POP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION. FORTUNATELY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR ONE INCH AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS ARE SLIGHTLY UNDER 10KFT SO RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WILL
NOT BE AS PROLIFIC AS SUNDAY MORNINGS SHOWERS AND MORE WELL DEFINED
MCV THAT CROSSED THE AREA. SUBJECTIVE H850 00Z ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SUBTROPICAL ANCHOR HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST US WITH BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES...LOW NEAR DENVER AT 00Z. THE MAIN
MOISTURE CHANNEL HAS MOVED EAST OF IOWA NOW BUT THE LOW AND
APPROACHING FRONT LATE THIS EVENING WILL STILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH MORE CHANCES FOR STORMS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KS
TRACKS NORTHEAST...IT SHOULD EXIT EAST/NORTHEAST AREAS BETWEEN 15-
17Z. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS LIKELY SOUTHEAST THIRD...ALLOWING HIGHS
TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NORTH LOWER TO
MID 70S MORE LIKELY WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER. BETWEEN 20-00Z WILL BE
LOOKING FOR MAIN H500 WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES TO EJECT NORTHEAST
TOWARD IOWA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 1200-1900 J/KG MLCAPE BY 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. WIND FIELDS ALOFT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. CURRENTLY OUR AREA HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREATS
APPEAR TO BE WIND AND HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACTIVITY LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL TODAY MAY STILL APPROACH
.25 TO .75 INCHES WITH THE COMBINATION OF THIS MORNINGS
PRECIPITATION AND THIS AFTERNOONS EXPECTED STORMS OVER THE
WEST /NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
MAIN WESTERN US TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL/NW TEXAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION AS WELL...AND WITH ENERGY FROM THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONGER IN THE EVENING THEN WEAKENS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH INSTABILITY WANING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SOME SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL
HOWEVER IT LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH EAST BY LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH OF
THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE STATE AS
WELL WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NAM TRIES TO HANG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
PUSH IT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THUS HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND
STUCK WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN US FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AGAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FOR LATE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH A TURN TOWARD
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/12Z
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AREA AT 11Z
WITH DECAYING MCS OVER NORTHEAST KS ADVANCING NORTHEAST AS WELL
WITH A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE MCS.
WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER SOUTH THROUGH 15Z WITH
SHOWERS EXITING NORTHEAST AFT 15Z. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AFT 17Z
WITH GUSTS 25KT. AFT 20Z...INCREASING THREAT FOR VCTS/TSRA AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM 20-03Z. CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE STILL
NOT HIGH...SO HAVE KEPT VCTS FOR NOW. POST STORMS...CIGS MAY AGAIN
DIP TO MVFR WITH -SHRA THROUGH END OF PERIOD. /REV

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THREAT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS LOW. RAINFALL RATES EARLY TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH AND RAINFALL PERSISTENT ENOUGH. LATER TODAY...SCATTERED
NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDITIVE EFFECTS OF YESTERDAYS
THROUGH TUESDAYS RAINFALL...AND SUBSEQUENT EVENTS. SOME URBAN
RUNOFF AND PONDING OF WATER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG/REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 251125
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
625 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER COMPLEX DAY AHEAD...THOUGH SYSTEM HAS NOT EVOLVED EXACTLY AS
LAST NIGHTS MODELS SUGGESTED FOR 06-12Z MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE
OVER NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AT 07Z.
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THOSE AREAS
HEADING INTO SOUTHERN IOWA NOW. HAVE UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING POP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION. FORTUNATELY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR ONE INCH AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS ARE SLIGHTLY UNDER 10KFT SO RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WILL
NOT BE AS PROLIFIC AS SUNDAY MORNINGS SHOWERS AND MORE WELL DEFINED
MCV THAT CROSSED THE AREA. SUBJECTIVE H850 00Z ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SUBTROPICAL ANCHOR HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST US WITH BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES...LOW NEAR DENVER AT 00Z. THE MAIN
MOISTURE CHANNEL HAS MOVED EAST OF IOWA NOW BUT THE LOW AND
APPROACHING FRONT LATE THIS EVENING WILL STILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH MORE CHANCES FOR STORMS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KS
TRACKS NORTHEAST...IT SHOULD EXIT EAST/NORTHEAST AREAS BETWEEN 15-
17Z. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS LIKELY SOUTHEAST THIRD...ALLOWING HIGHS
TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NORTH LOWER TO
MID 70S MORE LIKELY WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER. BETWEEN 20-00Z WILL BE
LOOKING FOR MAIN H500 WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES TO EJECT NORTHEAST
TOWARD IOWA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 1200-1900 J/KG MLCAPE BY 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. WIND FIELDS ALOFT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. CURRENTLY OUR AREA HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREATS
APPEAR TO BE WIND AND HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACTIVITY LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL TODAY MAY STILL APPROACH
.25 TO .75 INCHES WITH THE COMBINATION OF THIS MORNINGS
PRECIPITATION AND THIS AFTERNOONS EXPECTED STORMS OVER THE
WEST /NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
MAIN WESTERN US TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL/NW TEXAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION AS WELL...AND WITH ENERGY FROM THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONGER IN THE EVENING THEN WEAKENS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH INSTABILITY WANING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SOME SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL
HOWEVER IT LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH EAST BY LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH OF
THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE STATE AS
WELL WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NAM TRIES TO HANG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
PUSH IT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THUS HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND
STUCK WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN US FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AGAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FOR LATE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH A TURN TOWARD
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/12Z
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH AREA AT 11Z
WITH DECAYING MCS OVER NORTHEAST KS ADVANCING NORTHEAST AS WELL
WITH A SMALL AREA OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OUT AHEAD OF THE MCS.
WILL SEE PERIODS OF SHOWERS/ISO THUNDER SOUTH THROUGH 15Z WITH
SHOWERS EXITING NORTHEAST AFT 15Z. SOUTH WINDS INCREASE AFT 17Z
WITH GUSTS 25KT. AFT 20Z...INCREASING THREAT FOR VCTS/TSRA AS
INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM 20-03Z. CONFIDENCE ON COVERAGE STILL
NOT HIGH...SO HAVE KEPT VCTS FOR NOW. POST STORMS...CIGS MAY AGAIN
DIP TO MVFR WITH -SHRA THROUGH END OF PERIOD. /REV

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THREAT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS LOW. RAINFALL RATES EARLY TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH AND RAINFALL PERSISTENT ENOUGH. LATER TODAY...SCATTERED
NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDITIVE EFFECTS OF YESTERDAYS
THROUGH TUESDAYS RAINFALL...AND SUBSEQUENT EVENTS. SOME URBAN
RUNOFF AND PONDING OF WATER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG/REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 250820
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER COMPLEX DAY AHEAD...THOUGH SYSTEM HAS NOT EVOLVED EXACTLY AS
LAST NIGHTS MODELS SUGGESTED FOR 06-12Z MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE
OVER NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AT 07Z.
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THOSE AREAS
HEADING INTO SOUTHERN IOWA NOW. HAVE UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING POP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION. FORTUNATELY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR ONE INCH AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS ARE SLIGHTLY UNDER 10KFT SO RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WILL
NOT BE AS PROLIFIC AS SUNDAY MORNINGS SHOWERS AND MORE WELL DEFINED
MCV THAT CROSSED THE AREA. SUBJECTIVE H850 00Z ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SUBTROPICAL ANCHOR HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST US WITH BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES...LOW NEAR DENVER AT 00Z. THE MAIN
MOISTURE CHANNEL HAS MOVED EAST OF IOWA NOW BUT THE LOW AND
APPROACHING FRONT LATE THIS EVENING WILL STILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH MORE CHANCES FOR STORMS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KS
TRACKS NORTHEAST...IT SHOULD EXIT EAST/NORTHEAST AREAS BETWEEN 15-
17Z. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS LIKELY SOUTHEAST THIRD...ALLOWING HIGHS
TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NORTH LOWER TO
MID 70S MORE LIKELY WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER. BETWEEN 20-00Z WILL BE
LOOKING FOR MAIN H500 WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES TO EJECT NORTHEAST
TOWARD IOWA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 1200-1900 J/KG MLCAPE BY 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. WIND FIELDS ALOFT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. CURRENTLY OUR AREA HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREATS
APPEAR TO BE WIND AND HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACTIVITY LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL TODAY MAY STILL APPROACH
.25 TO .75 INCHES WITH THE COMBINATION OF THIS MORNINGS
PRECIPITATION AND THIS AFTERNOONS EXPECTED STORMS OVER THE
WEST /NORTHWEST.


.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
MAIN WESTERN US TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL/NW TEXAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION AS WELL...AND WITH ENERGY FROM THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONGER IN THE EVENING THEN WEAKENS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH INSTABILITY WANING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SOME SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL
HOWEVER IT LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH EAST BY LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH OF
THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE STATE AS
WELL WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NAM TRIES TO HANG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
PUSH IT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THUS HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND
STUCK WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN US FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AGAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FOR LATE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH A TURN TOWARD
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/06Z
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. HAVE SEEN CEILINGS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA CLIMB ABOVE MVFR AND ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA
TO BE VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR IN THE
NORTHWEST NEAR KFOD WHERE LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
EVENING WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THREAT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS LOW. RAINFALL RATES EARLY TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH AND RAINFALL PERSISTENT ENOUGH. LATER TODAY...SCATTERED
NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDITIVE EFFECTS OF YESTERDAYS
THROUGH TUESDAYS RAINFALL...AND SUBSEQUENT EVENTS. SOME URBAN
RUNOFF AND PONDING OF WATER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG/REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 250820
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ANOTHER COMPLEX DAY AHEAD...THOUGH SYSTEM HAS NOT EVOLVED EXACTLY AS
LAST NIGHTS MODELS SUGGESTED FOR 06-12Z MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL WAVE
OVER NORTHEAST KS AND NORTHWEST MO BECOMING MORE ACTIVE AT 07Z.
SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THOSE AREAS
HEADING INTO SOUTHERN IOWA NOW. HAVE UPDATED THE OVERNIGHT INTO
MORNING POP GRIDS TO REFLECT THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION. FORTUNATELY
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE DROPPED TO NEAR ONE INCH AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS ARE SLIGHTLY UNDER 10KFT SO RAINFALL EFFICIENCY WILL
NOT BE AS PROLIFIC AS SUNDAY MORNINGS SHOWERS AND MORE WELL DEFINED
MCV THAT CROSSED THE AREA. SUBJECTIVE H850 00Z ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO
SHOW SUBTROPICAL ANCHOR HIGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST US WITH BROAD AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE ROCKIES...LOW NEAR DENVER AT 00Z. THE MAIN
MOISTURE CHANNEL HAS MOVED EAST OF IOWA NOW BUT THE LOW AND
APPROACHING FRONT LATE THIS EVENING WILL STILL IMPACT THE REGION
WITH MORE CHANCES FOR STORMS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER KS
TRACKS NORTHEAST...IT SHOULD EXIT EAST/NORTHEAST AREAS BETWEEN 15-
17Z. SOME BREAKS IN CLOUDS LIKELY SOUTHEAST THIRD...ALLOWING HIGHS
TO BUILD INTO THE LOWER 80S THIS AFTERNOON. OVER THE NORTH LOWER TO
MID 70S MORE LIKELY WITH THICKER CLOUD COVER. BETWEEN 20-00Z WILL BE
LOOKING FOR MAIN H500 WAVE OVER THE ROCKIES TO EJECT NORTHEAST
TOWARD IOWA. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW 1200-1900 J/KG MLCAPE BY 21Z THIS
AFTERNOON MOST AREAS. WIND FIELDS ALOFT NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT CERTAINLY ENOUGH TO ORGANIZE STORMS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS. CURRENTLY OUR AREA HAS BEEN UPDATED TO
SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. MAIN THREATS
APPEAR TO BE WIND AND HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. ACTIVITY LIKELY TO
CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL TODAY MAY STILL APPROACH
.25 TO .75 INCHES WITH THE COMBINATION OF THIS MORNINGS
PRECIPITATION AND THIS AFTERNOONS EXPECTED STORMS OVER THE
WEST /NORTHWEST.


.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

ACTIVE PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WITH THE
MAIN WESTERN US TROUGH TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
UPPER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE REGION TONIGHT AND MOVE THROUGH THE CWA
TUESDAY BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF IT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH MOISTURE NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA...WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT STRETCHED NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. AN UPPER VORT MAX CURRENTLY OVER CNTRL/NW TEXAS WILL
LIFT NORTHWARD TOWARD THE REGION AS WELL...AND WITH ENERGY FROM THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND THIS SECONDARY SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...EXPECT AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE CWA MAINLY DURING THE EVENING/LATE NIGHT HOURS.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR STRONGER IN THE EVENING THEN WEAKENS INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH INSTABILITY WANING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS WELL. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF SHEAR/INSTABILITY SOME SEVERE
STORMS POSSIBLE WITH THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK SHOWING A SLIGHT RISK
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT AS WELL
HOWEVER IT LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST OF THE CWA.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS THE UPPER WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE CWA...AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH EAST BY LATE
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WEAK COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO SAG SOUTH OF
THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEFORE LIFTING BACK
NORTHWARD THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TO BRIEFLY BUILD INTO THE STATE AS
WELL WEDNESDAY SO EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. NAM TRIES TO HANG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS THE SOUTH...WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS
PUSH IT SOUTH OF THE CWA. THUS HAVE GONE WITH THE CONSENSUS AND
STUCK WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH
TO BUILD INTO THE WESTERN US FOR THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND...WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SETTING UP AGAIN AND CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
RETURN FOR LATE WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO DROP THROUGH THE AREA
NEXT WEEKEND WITH A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BUILD
INTO THE AREA FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR
AVERAGE FOR THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE PERIOD WITH A TURN TOWARD
COOLER THAN AVERAGE TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...25/06Z
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. HAVE SEEN CEILINGS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA CLIMB ABOVE MVFR AND ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA
TO BE VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES MAY OCCUR IN THE
NORTHWEST NEAR KFOD WHERE LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
EVENING WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

RAIN EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY...BUT THREAT FOR ANY FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS LOW. RAINFALL RATES EARLY TODAY NOT EXPECTED TO BE HIGH
ENOUGH AND RAINFALL PERSISTENT ENOUGH. LATER TODAY...SCATTERED
NATURE OF STORMS SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY WIDESPREAD COVERAGE UNTIL
THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN CONCERNS ARE ADDITIVE EFFECTS OF YESTERDAYS
THROUGH TUESDAYS RAINFALL...AND SUBSEQUENT EVENTS. SOME URBAN
RUNOFF AND PONDING OF WATER MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG/REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 250459
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
CWA TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED EXCEPT EARLY IN
THE PERIOD MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 18Z WRF
REFLECTIVITY SUMMARIZES FCST THOUGHTS RATHER WELL REGARDING RADAR
TRENDS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE MCV PRESENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER UNTIL THE MCV PASSES LATER
THIS EVE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR WX IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHEAR VALUES...AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINERS FROM THE CONVECTION AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MCV PRESENTLY
IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN IOWA ROUGHLY CENTERED ON THE I-35 CORRIDOR GIVEN THE
PCPN RESIDENCE TIME. PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH VALUES
AS HIGH AS AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND THUS EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AND APPROACHING RECORD HIGH VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 12 KFT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE HIGH...MUCAPES WILL BE SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. EVEN THUNDER
WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION OVERNIGHT. AM
NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT
HOWEVER...SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS OR AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST TEMPS TONIGHT...MAINLY LOWERING THEM A
COUPLE DEGREES IN PLACES AS HIGHS TODAY DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...AND EXPECT ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH. THIS WILL
LIFT NORTH...WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR MN/IA BOARDER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIPITATION
REDEVELOPING NEAR EASTERN NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON AND PUSHING
EAST INTO IOWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION. CONCERN WILL BE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP...WITH MODELS INDICATING CAPE VALUES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA NEAR OR
ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH SHEAR INCREASING ALONG WEAK
BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO
PERSIST WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND WIND THE
MAIN THREATS. SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
PERSIST ALONG BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
SLOW MOVING LOW...CONCERN BECOMES FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOR RAINFALL RATES TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH WITH PWAT
RATES MUCH LOWER...CLOSER TO 1 INCH...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NOT AS
DEEP. HOWEVER...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND CANNOT
RULE OUT POTENTIAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
FLASH FLOOD AND FLOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA.

SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY BEFORE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL IOWA LATE THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS HANG BOUNDARY
UP IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING ANOTHER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...AND KEEPING PERSISTING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IOWA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE GENERALLY STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. HOWEVER...BEHIND BOUNDARY LATE IN THE
PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...25/06Z
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. HAVE SEEN CEILINGS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA CLIMB ABOVE MVFR AND ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA
TO BE VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR VISIBLITIES MAY OCCUR IN THE
NORTHWEST NEAR KFOD WHERE LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
EVENING WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE TWO ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY...A WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THUS FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT
ISSUED. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES. OF MORE CONCERN REGARDING FLASH FLOODING IS ITS POTENTIAL
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 250459
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
CWA TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED EXCEPT EARLY IN
THE PERIOD MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 18Z WRF
REFLECTIVITY SUMMARIZES FCST THOUGHTS RATHER WELL REGARDING RADAR
TRENDS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE MCV PRESENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER UNTIL THE MCV PASSES LATER
THIS EVE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR WX IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHEAR VALUES...AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINERS FROM THE CONVECTION AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MCV PRESENTLY
IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN IOWA ROUGHLY CENTERED ON THE I-35 CORRIDOR GIVEN THE
PCPN RESIDENCE TIME. PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH VALUES
AS HIGH AS AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND THUS EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AND APPROACHING RECORD HIGH VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 12 KFT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE HIGH...MUCAPES WILL BE SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. EVEN THUNDER
WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION OVERNIGHT. AM
NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT
HOWEVER...SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS OR AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST TEMPS TONIGHT...MAINLY LOWERING THEM A
COUPLE DEGREES IN PLACES AS HIGHS TODAY DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...AND EXPECT ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH. THIS WILL
LIFT NORTH...WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR MN/IA BOARDER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIPITATION
REDEVELOPING NEAR EASTERN NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON AND PUSHING
EAST INTO IOWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION. CONCERN WILL BE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP...WITH MODELS INDICATING CAPE VALUES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA NEAR OR
ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH SHEAR INCREASING ALONG WEAK
BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO
PERSIST WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND WIND THE
MAIN THREATS. SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
PERSIST ALONG BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
SLOW MOVING LOW...CONCERN BECOMES FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOR RAINFALL RATES TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH WITH PWAT
RATES MUCH LOWER...CLOSER TO 1 INCH...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NOT AS
DEEP. HOWEVER...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND CANNOT
RULE OUT POTENTIAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
FLASH FLOOD AND FLOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA.

SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY BEFORE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL IOWA LATE THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS HANG BOUNDARY
UP IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING ANOTHER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...AND KEEPING PERSISTING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IOWA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE GENERALLY STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. HOWEVER...BEHIND BOUNDARY LATE IN THE
PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...25/06Z
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. HAVE SEEN CEILINGS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA CLIMB ABOVE MVFR AND ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA
TO BE VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR VISIBLITIES MAY OCCUR IN THE
NORTHWEST NEAR KFOD WHERE LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
EVENING WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE TWO ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY...A WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THUS FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT
ISSUED. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES. OF MORE CONCERN REGARDING FLASH FLOODING IS ITS POTENTIAL
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 250459
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
CWA TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED EXCEPT EARLY IN
THE PERIOD MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 18Z WRF
REFLECTIVITY SUMMARIZES FCST THOUGHTS RATHER WELL REGARDING RADAR
TRENDS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE MCV PRESENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER UNTIL THE MCV PASSES LATER
THIS EVE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR WX IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHEAR VALUES...AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINERS FROM THE CONVECTION AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MCV PRESENTLY
IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN IOWA ROUGHLY CENTERED ON THE I-35 CORRIDOR GIVEN THE
PCPN RESIDENCE TIME. PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH VALUES
AS HIGH AS AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND THUS EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AND APPROACHING RECORD HIGH VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 12 KFT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE HIGH...MUCAPES WILL BE SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. EVEN THUNDER
WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION OVERNIGHT. AM
NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT
HOWEVER...SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS OR AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST TEMPS TONIGHT...MAINLY LOWERING THEM A
COUPLE DEGREES IN PLACES AS HIGHS TODAY DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...AND EXPECT ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH. THIS WILL
LIFT NORTH...WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR MN/IA BOARDER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIPITATION
REDEVELOPING NEAR EASTERN NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON AND PUSHING
EAST INTO IOWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION. CONCERN WILL BE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP...WITH MODELS INDICATING CAPE VALUES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA NEAR OR
ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH SHEAR INCREASING ALONG WEAK
BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO
PERSIST WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND WIND THE
MAIN THREATS. SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
PERSIST ALONG BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
SLOW MOVING LOW...CONCERN BECOMES FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOR RAINFALL RATES TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH WITH PWAT
RATES MUCH LOWER...CLOSER TO 1 INCH...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NOT AS
DEEP. HOWEVER...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND CANNOT
RULE OUT POTENTIAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
FLASH FLOOD AND FLOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA.

SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY BEFORE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL IOWA LATE THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS HANG BOUNDARY
UP IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING ANOTHER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...AND KEEPING PERSISTING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IOWA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE GENERALLY STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. HOWEVER...BEHIND BOUNDARY LATE IN THE
PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...25/06Z
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. HAVE SEEN CEILINGS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA CLIMB ABOVE MVFR AND ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA
TO BE VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR VISIBLITIES MAY OCCUR IN THE
NORTHWEST NEAR KFOD WHERE LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
EVENING WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE TWO ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY...A WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THUS FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT
ISSUED. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES. OF MORE CONCERN REGARDING FLASH FLOODING IS ITS POTENTIAL
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 250459
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
CWA TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED EXCEPT EARLY IN
THE PERIOD MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 18Z WRF
REFLECTIVITY SUMMARIZES FCST THOUGHTS RATHER WELL REGARDING RADAR
TRENDS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE MCV PRESENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER UNTIL THE MCV PASSES LATER
THIS EVE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR WX IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHEAR VALUES...AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINERS FROM THE CONVECTION AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MCV PRESENTLY
IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN IOWA ROUGHLY CENTERED ON THE I-35 CORRIDOR GIVEN THE
PCPN RESIDENCE TIME. PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH VALUES
AS HIGH AS AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND THUS EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AND APPROACHING RECORD HIGH VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 12 KFT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE HIGH...MUCAPES WILL BE SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. EVEN THUNDER
WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION OVERNIGHT. AM
NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT
HOWEVER...SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS OR AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST TEMPS TONIGHT...MAINLY LOWERING THEM A
COUPLE DEGREES IN PLACES AS HIGHS TODAY DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...AND EXPECT ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH. THIS WILL
LIFT NORTH...WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR MN/IA BOARDER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIPITATION
REDEVELOPING NEAR EASTERN NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON AND PUSHING
EAST INTO IOWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION. CONCERN WILL BE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP...WITH MODELS INDICATING CAPE VALUES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA NEAR OR
ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH SHEAR INCREASING ALONG WEAK
BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO
PERSIST WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND WIND THE
MAIN THREATS. SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
PERSIST ALONG BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
SLOW MOVING LOW...CONCERN BECOMES FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOR RAINFALL RATES TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH WITH PWAT
RATES MUCH LOWER...CLOSER TO 1 INCH...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NOT AS
DEEP. HOWEVER...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND CANNOT
RULE OUT POTENTIAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
FLASH FLOOD AND FLOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA.

SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY BEFORE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL IOWA LATE THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS HANG BOUNDARY
UP IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING ANOTHER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...AND KEEPING PERSISTING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IOWA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE GENERALLY STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. HOWEVER...BEHIND BOUNDARY LATE IN THE
PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...25/06Z
ISSUED AT 1159 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WARM SECTOR HAS SPREAD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING AND
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY ON MONDAY. HAVE SEEN CEILINGS ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA CLIMB ABOVE MVFR AND ANTICIPATE MUCH OF THE AREA
TO BE VFR OVERNIGHT. SOME MVFR VISIBLITIES MAY OCCUR IN THE
NORTHWEST NEAR KFOD WHERE LIGHT WINDS ALLOW FOR LIGHT FOG
DEVELOPMENT. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ON MONDAY WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS. SOME CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BY MONDAY
EVENING WHICH WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED MVFR CONDITIONS IN AND AROUND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE TWO ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY...A WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THUS FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT
ISSUED. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES. OF MORE CONCERN REGARDING FLASH FLOODING IS ITS POTENTIAL
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 242337
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
CWA TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED EXCEPT EARLY IN
THE PERIOD MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 18Z WRF
REFLECTIVITY SUMMARIZES FCST THOUGHTS RATHER WELL REGARDING RADAR
TRENDS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE MCV PRESENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER UNTIL THE MCV PASSES LATER
THIS EVE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR WX IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHEAR VALUES...AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINERS FROM THE CONVECTION AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MCV PRESENTLY
IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN IOWA ROUGHLY CENTERED ON THE I-35 CORRIDOR GIVEN THE
PCPN RESIDENCE TIME. PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH VALUES
AS HIGH AS AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND THUS EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AND APPROACHING RECORD HIGH VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 12 KFT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE HIGH...MUCAPES WILL BE SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. EVEN THUNDER
WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION OVERNIGHT. AM
NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT
HOWEVER...SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS OR AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST TEMPS TONIGHT...MAINLY LOWERING THEM A
COUPLE DEGREES IN PLACES AS HIGHS TODAY DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...AND EXPECT ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH. THIS WILL
LIFT NORTH...WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR MN/IA BOARDER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIPITATION
REDEVELOPING NEAR EASTERN NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON AND PUSHING
EAST INTO IOWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION. CONCERN WILL BE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP...WITH MODELS INDICATING CAPE VALUES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA NEAR OR
ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH SHEAR INCREASING ALONG WEAK
BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO
PERSIST WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND WIND THE
MAIN THREATS. SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
PERSIST ALONG BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
SLOW MOVING LOW...CONCERN BECOMES FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOR RAINFALL RATES TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH WITH PWAT
RATES MUCH LOWER...CLOSER TO 1 INCH...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NOT AS
DEEP. HOWEVER...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND CANNOT
RULE OUT POTENTIAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
FLASH FLOOD AND FLOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA.

SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY BEFORE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL IOWA LATE THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS HANG BOUNDARY
UP IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING ANOTHER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...AND KEEPING PERSISTING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IOWA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE GENERALLY STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. HOWEVER...BEHIND BOUNDARY LATE IN THE
PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...25/00Z
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WARM SECTOR IS OVERSPREADING CENTRAL IOWA WITH CEILINGS CLIMBING
TO VFR IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE CEILINGS DROP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ENTERS CENTRAL IOWA WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS THE RAIN DEPARTS TOWARD
DAYBREAK...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CLIMB INTO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE TWO ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY...A WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THUS FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT
ISSUED. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES. OF MORE CONCERN REGARDING FLASH FLOODING IS ITS POTENTIAL
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 242337
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
CWA TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED EXCEPT EARLY IN
THE PERIOD MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 18Z WRF
REFLECTIVITY SUMMARIZES FCST THOUGHTS RATHER WELL REGARDING RADAR
TRENDS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE MCV PRESENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER UNTIL THE MCV PASSES LATER
THIS EVE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR WX IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHEAR VALUES...AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINERS FROM THE CONVECTION AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MCV PRESENTLY
IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN IOWA ROUGHLY CENTERED ON THE I-35 CORRIDOR GIVEN THE
PCPN RESIDENCE TIME. PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH VALUES
AS HIGH AS AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND THUS EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AND APPROACHING RECORD HIGH VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 12 KFT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE HIGH...MUCAPES WILL BE SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. EVEN THUNDER
WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION OVERNIGHT. AM
NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT
HOWEVER...SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS OR AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST TEMPS TONIGHT...MAINLY LOWERING THEM A
COUPLE DEGREES IN PLACES AS HIGHS TODAY DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...AND EXPECT ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH. THIS WILL
LIFT NORTH...WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR MN/IA BOARDER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIPITATION
REDEVELOPING NEAR EASTERN NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON AND PUSHING
EAST INTO IOWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION. CONCERN WILL BE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP...WITH MODELS INDICATING CAPE VALUES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA NEAR OR
ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH SHEAR INCREASING ALONG WEAK
BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO
PERSIST WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND WIND THE
MAIN THREATS. SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
PERSIST ALONG BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
SLOW MOVING LOW...CONCERN BECOMES FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOR RAINFALL RATES TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH WITH PWAT
RATES MUCH LOWER...CLOSER TO 1 INCH...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NOT AS
DEEP. HOWEVER...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND CANNOT
RULE OUT POTENTIAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
FLASH FLOOD AND FLOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA.

SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY BEFORE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL IOWA LATE THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS HANG BOUNDARY
UP IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING ANOTHER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...AND KEEPING PERSISTING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IOWA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE GENERALLY STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. HOWEVER...BEHIND BOUNDARY LATE IN THE
PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...25/00Z
ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WARM SECTOR IS OVERSPREADING CENTRAL IOWA WITH CEILINGS CLIMBING
TO VFR IN MOST LOCATIONS. WILL SEE CEILINGS DROP AGAIN OVERNIGHT
AS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN ENTERS CENTRAL IOWA WITH MVFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITIES EXPECTED. HOWEVER...AS THE RAIN DEPARTS TOWARD
DAYBREAK...CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL CLIMB INTO VFR
CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY AND REMAIN THAT WAY FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
MOSTLY FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE TWO ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY...A WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THUS FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT
ISSUED. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES. OF MORE CONCERN REGARDING FLASH FLOODING IS ITS POTENTIAL
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 242058
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
CWA TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED EXCEPT EARLY IN
THE PERIOD MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 18Z WRF
REFLECTIVITY SUMMARIZES FCST THOUGHTS RATHER WELL REGARDING RADAR
TRENDS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE MCV PRESENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER UNTIL THE MCV PASSES LATER
THIS EVE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR WX IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHEAR VALUES...AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINERS FROM THE CONVECTION AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MCV PRESENTLY
IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN IOWA ROUGHLY CENTERED ON THE I-35 CORRIDOR GIVEN THE
PCPN RESIDENCE TIME. PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH VALUES
AS HIGH AS AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND THUS EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AND APPROACHING RECORD HIGH VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 12 KFT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE HIGH...MUCAPES WILL BE SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. EVEN THUNDER
WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION OVERNIGHT. AM
NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT
HOWEVER...SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS OR AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST TEMPS TONIGHT...MAINLY LOWERING THEM A
COUPLE DEGREES IN PLACES AS HIGHS TODAY DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...AND EXPECT ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH. THIS WILL
LIFT NORTH...WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR MN/IA BOARDER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIPITATION
REDEVELOPING NEAR EASTERN NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON AND PUSHING
EAST INTO IOWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION. CONCERN WILL BE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP...WITH MODELS INDICATING CAPE VALUES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA NEAR OR
ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH SHEAR INCREASING ALONG WEAK
BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO
PERSIST WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND WIND THE
MAIN THREATS. SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
PERSIST ALONG BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
SLOW MOVING LOW...CONCERN BECOMES FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOR RAINFALL RATES TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH WITH PWAT
RATES MUCH LOWER...CLOSER TO 1 INCH...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NOT AS
DEEP. HOWEVER...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND CANNOT
RULE OUT POTENTIAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
FLASH FLOOD AND FLOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA.

SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY BEFORE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL IOWA LATE THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS HANG BOUNDARY
UP IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING ANOTHER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...AND KEEPING PERSISTING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IOWA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE GENERALLY STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. HOWEVER...BEHIND BOUNDARY LATE IN THE
PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z

ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN...MAINLY LIGHT...IS EXPECTED TO REACH IA BY
MID-AFTN AND SPREAD NE. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO CHANGE MUCH FROM
PRESENT VALUES WITH IT HOWEVER. HEAVIER PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND WILL BRING LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH A RETURN OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. STRONGER SOUTH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
AREAS EAST OF THE LOW AS WELL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE TWO ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY...A WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THUS FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT
ISSUED. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES. OF MORE CONCERN REGARDING FLASH FLOODING IS ITS POTENTIAL
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 242058
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

A COUPLE ROUNDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
CWA TONIGHT...WITH LITTLE IF ANY THUNDER EXPECTED EXCEPT EARLY IN
THE PERIOD MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 18Z WRF
REFLECTIVITY SUMMARIZES FCST THOUGHTS RATHER WELL REGARDING RADAR
TRENDS FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL BE FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE MCV PRESENTLY LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH CENTRAL
MISSOURI. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN
CWA...WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER UNTIL THE MCV PASSES LATER
THIS EVE. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SVR WX IS NOT EXPECTED...ANY STORMS
THAT DO DEVELOP MAY HAVE TO BE MONITORED DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED INSTABILITY AS WELL AS SHEAR VALUES...AGAIN ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTHEASTERN CWA. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME ISOLATED HEAVY
RAINERS FROM THE CONVECTION AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND ROUND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE MCV PRESENTLY
IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. GREATEST THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN PARTS OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY IN CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN IOWA ROUGHLY CENTERED ON THE I-35 CORRIDOR GIVEN THE
PCPN RESIDENCE TIME. PWAT VALUES ARE QUITE IMPRESSIVE...WITH VALUES
AS HIGH AS AROUND 1.7 INCHES AND THUS EXCEEDING THE 90TH PERCENTILE
AND APPROACHING RECORD HIGH VALUES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL APPROACH OR EXCEED 12 KFT. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE HIGH...MUCAPES WILL BE SUFFICIENT ALONG WITH
ANOMALOUS MOISTURE TO RESULT IN A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. EVEN THUNDER
WILL NOT BE NEEDED FOR EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION OVERNIGHT. AM
NOT OVERLY CONCERNED ABOUT WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD THREAT
HOWEVER...SO HAVE OPTED TO NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. THAT BEING
SAID...SOME ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS OR AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE.

ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO FORECAST TEMPS TONIGHT...MAINLY LOWERING THEM A
COUPLE DEGREES IN PLACES AS HIGHS TODAY DID NOT GO AS HIGH AS
ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD...AND EXPECT ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH. THIS WILL
LIFT NORTH...WITH BOUNDARY LINGERING NEAR MN/IA BOARDER THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS. WEAK TROUGH WILL PUSH EAST THROUGH THE LATE
MORNING INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. CONCERNS ABOUT PRECIPITATION
REDEVELOPING NEAR EASTERN NEBRASKA IN THE AFTERNOON AND PUSHING
EAST INTO IOWA LATE IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGH RES MODELS ARE TRENDING
TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION. CONCERN WILL BE WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS WHICH MAY DEVELOP...WITH MODELS INDICATING CAPE VALUES IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA NEAR OR
ABOVE 2000 J/KG WITH SHEAR INCREASING ALONG WEAK
BOUNDARY...SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW FOR STORMS WHICH DEVELOP TO
PERSIST WITH POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...WITH HAIL AND WIND THE
MAIN THREATS. SURFACE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN IOWA
THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
PERSIST ALONG BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS IOWA THROUGH TUESDAY. WITH
SLOW MOVING LOW...CONCERN BECOMES FOR HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE TO ALLOW FOR RAINFALL RATES TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES...THOUGH MOISTURE BEGINS TO DIMINISH WITH PWAT
RATES MUCH LOWER...CLOSER TO 1 INCH...AND WARM CLOUD DEPTHS NOT AS
DEEP. HOWEVER...EFFICIENT RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND CANNOT
RULE OUT POTENTIAL LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR
FLASH FLOOD AND FLOOD POTENTIAL GIVEN PREVIOUS DAYS RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA.

SYSTEM WILL FINALLY PUSH SOUTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
BREAK IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES WEDNESDAY BEFORE LARGE UPPER LEVEL
LOW PUSHES EAST ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED SYSTEM
PUSHING INTO CENTRAL IOWA LATE THURSDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. MODELS HANG BOUNDARY
UP IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN IOWA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH GFS THE
MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPING ANOTHER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES...AND KEEPING PERSISTING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
IOWA. HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS ECMWF WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ENDING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE GENERALLY STEADY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S AND 80S
AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S. HOWEVER...BEHIND BOUNDARY LATE IN THE
PERIOD TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE MUCH COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z

ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN...MAINLY LIGHT...IS EXPECTED TO REACH IA BY
MID-AFTN AND SPREAD NE. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO CHANGE MUCH FROM
PRESENT VALUES WITH IT HOWEVER. HEAVIER PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND WILL BRING LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH A RETURN OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. STRONGER SOUTH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
AREAS EAST OF THE LOW AS WELL.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 318 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ALTHOUGH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE TWO ROUNDS OF ACTIVITY...A WIDESPREAD FLASH
FLOOD THREAT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...THUS FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS NOT
ISSUED. FORECAST RAINFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN BELOW FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE
VALUES. OF MORE CONCERN REGARDING FLASH FLOODING IS ITS POTENTIAL
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...MINOR TO MODERATE WITHIN-BANK RISES ARE
EXPECTED AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE MIDDLE TO LOWER
DES MOINES RIVER BASIN...AS WELL AS THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN.
IF RAINFALL OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HRS COMES IN HEAVIER THAN
EXPECTED...THEN MINOR FLOODING COULD BE EXPECTED AT SOME
LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...ZOGG
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 241745
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 24/18Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WELL DEFINED MCV MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL KS AT 06Z WITH ATTENDANT
RAIN SHIELD EXPANDING NORTHEAST TOWARD IOWA. MODERATE TO HVY
RAINFALL ALREADY OCCURRING TO OUR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...H850 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST HAS MOVED LITTLE
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AT H850...MOISTURE CHANNEL
DIRECTED RIGHT AT EASTERN TX...NEARLY DUE NORTH TO EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA. CURRENTLY RAINFALL EFFICIENCY QUITE HIGH OVER
EASTERN KS WHERE ONE HOUR RATES ARE APPROACHING TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR TODAY...EXPECTING THE MCV TO
MOVE NORTH WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z... WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
WITH TIME. HAVE RAISED QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING...AND
PUSHED AMOUNTS HIGHER OVER THE EAST HALF THROUGH 18Z WITH LESS
EXPECTED WEST OF I35. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE SECOND WAVE...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN KS AGAIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
IOWA. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE TOMORROW NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY ALREADY INCREASES TO 1.70 INCHES BY 12Z
THROUGH INTERSTATE 80...AND ABOUT 1.5 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...EVEN
WITH LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY... SHOULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
RANGE OF TWO THIRDS TO 1.5 INCHES BY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NEARING TWO INCHES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE INFORMATION IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HELD IN CHECK WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED MOST OF THE MORNING... ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW HOURS BREAK IN THE
RAINFALL...SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK BUT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FOR THE INITIAL FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MAIN
CONCERNS ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. FIRST STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION TRACKING FROM SE NE
INTO SC MN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH A CONTINUED PUSH OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. PWATS IN THE  1.5
INCH RANGE WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...THEREFORE EXPECT EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY HAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED SOME BUT STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN DECENT RAIN EXPECTED TODAY
AS WELL. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA
MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY PERIOD OR IF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECT
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY BY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WAA TO CONTINUE WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER IMPULSE TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...MAY
SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA. AGAIN THIS PERIOD COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE GREATER INSTABILITY PRESENT.
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN
PLACE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE STATE TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS THEN BUILD A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THEREFORE
EXPECT AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH A TREND TOWARD QUIETER WEATHER AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z

ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN...MAINLY LIGHT...IS EXPECTED TO REACH IA BY
MID-AFTN AND SPREAD NE. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO CHANGE MUCH FROM
PRESENT VALUES WITH IT HOWEVER. HEAVIER PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND WILL BRING LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH A RETURN OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. STRONGER SOUTH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
AREAS EAST OF THE LOW AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MCV TRACKING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING ALONG WITH IT
MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. H850 FLOW AND PWATS
ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAINFALL TODAY.
TOTALS THROUGH 12Z SOUTH WILL APPROACH .50 TO .66 INCHES WHILE
LESSER BUT SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING BY EVENING WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST. TOTALS FOR THE DAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.50 NORTHWEST TO FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL HAVE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT TO RIVERS THOUGH
SUBSEQUENT RAINFALLS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AFTER 00Z MAY CAUSE
SOME HYDRO ISSUES ALONG MAINSTREAM RIVERS. AS THE FIRST SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST BY 20Z...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING SOUTHERN IOWA.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...NOT A LOT HAS CHANGED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE RIVER
OUTLOOKS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. AGAIN...A FEW
ENSEMBLES TO PUSH SOME OF THE RIVERS RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH
THE LOCATIONS CONTINUING TO BE ALONG THE DES MOINES AND RACCOON
RIVER BASINS. NO HYDRO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED...BUT THE SITUATION
IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...ZOGG
HYDROLOGY...REV/BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 241745
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 24/18Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WELL DEFINED MCV MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL KS AT 06Z WITH ATTENDANT
RAIN SHIELD EXPANDING NORTHEAST TOWARD IOWA. MODERATE TO HVY
RAINFALL ALREADY OCCURRING TO OUR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...H850 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST HAS MOVED LITTLE
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AT H850...MOISTURE CHANNEL
DIRECTED RIGHT AT EASTERN TX...NEARLY DUE NORTH TO EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA. CURRENTLY RAINFALL EFFICIENCY QUITE HIGH OVER
EASTERN KS WHERE ONE HOUR RATES ARE APPROACHING TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR TODAY...EXPECTING THE MCV TO
MOVE NORTH WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z... WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
WITH TIME. HAVE RAISED QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING...AND
PUSHED AMOUNTS HIGHER OVER THE EAST HALF THROUGH 18Z WITH LESS
EXPECTED WEST OF I35. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE SECOND WAVE...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN KS AGAIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
IOWA. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE TOMORROW NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY ALREADY INCREASES TO 1.70 INCHES BY 12Z
THROUGH INTERSTATE 80...AND ABOUT 1.5 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...EVEN
WITH LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY... SHOULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
RANGE OF TWO THIRDS TO 1.5 INCHES BY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NEARING TWO INCHES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE INFORMATION IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HELD IN CHECK WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED MOST OF THE MORNING... ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW HOURS BREAK IN THE
RAINFALL...SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK BUT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FOR THE INITIAL FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MAIN
CONCERNS ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. FIRST STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION TRACKING FROM SE NE
INTO SC MN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH A CONTINUED PUSH OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. PWATS IN THE  1.5
INCH RANGE WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...THEREFORE EXPECT EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY HAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED SOME BUT STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN DECENT RAIN EXPECTED TODAY
AS WELL. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA
MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY PERIOD OR IF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECT
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY BY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WAA TO CONTINUE WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER IMPULSE TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...MAY
SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA. AGAIN THIS PERIOD COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE GREATER INSTABILITY PRESENT.
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN
PLACE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE STATE TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS THEN BUILD A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THEREFORE
EXPECT AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH A TREND TOWARD QUIETER WEATHER AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z

ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN...MAINLY LIGHT...IS EXPECTED TO REACH IA BY
MID-AFTN AND SPREAD NE. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO CHANGE MUCH FROM
PRESENT VALUES WITH IT HOWEVER. HEAVIER PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND WILL BRING LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH A RETURN OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. STRONGER SOUTH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
AREAS EAST OF THE LOW AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MCV TRACKING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING ALONG WITH IT
MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. H850 FLOW AND PWATS
ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAINFALL TODAY.
TOTALS THROUGH 12Z SOUTH WILL APPROACH .50 TO .66 INCHES WHILE
LESSER BUT SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING BY EVENING WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST. TOTALS FOR THE DAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.50 NORTHWEST TO FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL HAVE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT TO RIVERS THOUGH
SUBSEQUENT RAINFALLS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AFTER 00Z MAY CAUSE
SOME HYDRO ISSUES ALONG MAINSTREAM RIVERS. AS THE FIRST SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST BY 20Z...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING SOUTHERN IOWA.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...NOT A LOT HAS CHANGED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE RIVER
OUTLOOKS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. AGAIN...A FEW
ENSEMBLES TO PUSH SOME OF THE RIVERS RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH
THE LOCATIONS CONTINUING TO BE ALONG THE DES MOINES AND RACCOON
RIVER BASINS. NO HYDRO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED...BUT THE SITUATION
IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...ZOGG
HYDROLOGY...REV/BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 241745
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 24/18Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WELL DEFINED MCV MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL KS AT 06Z WITH ATTENDANT
RAIN SHIELD EXPANDING NORTHEAST TOWARD IOWA. MODERATE TO HVY
RAINFALL ALREADY OCCURRING TO OUR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...H850 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST HAS MOVED LITTLE
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AT H850...MOISTURE CHANNEL
DIRECTED RIGHT AT EASTERN TX...NEARLY DUE NORTH TO EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA. CURRENTLY RAINFALL EFFICIENCY QUITE HIGH OVER
EASTERN KS WHERE ONE HOUR RATES ARE APPROACHING TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR TODAY...EXPECTING THE MCV TO
MOVE NORTH WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z... WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
WITH TIME. HAVE RAISED QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING...AND
PUSHED AMOUNTS HIGHER OVER THE EAST HALF THROUGH 18Z WITH LESS
EXPECTED WEST OF I35. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE SECOND WAVE...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN KS AGAIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
IOWA. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE TOMORROW NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY ALREADY INCREASES TO 1.70 INCHES BY 12Z
THROUGH INTERSTATE 80...AND ABOUT 1.5 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...EVEN
WITH LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY... SHOULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
RANGE OF TWO THIRDS TO 1.5 INCHES BY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NEARING TWO INCHES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE INFORMATION IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HELD IN CHECK WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED MOST OF THE MORNING... ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW HOURS BREAK IN THE
RAINFALL...SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK BUT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FOR THE INITIAL FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MAIN
CONCERNS ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. FIRST STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION TRACKING FROM SE NE
INTO SC MN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH A CONTINUED PUSH OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. PWATS IN THE  1.5
INCH RANGE WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...THEREFORE EXPECT EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY HAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED SOME BUT STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN DECENT RAIN EXPECTED TODAY
AS WELL. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA
MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY PERIOD OR IF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECT
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY BY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WAA TO CONTINUE WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER IMPULSE TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...MAY
SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA. AGAIN THIS PERIOD COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE GREATER INSTABILITY PRESENT.
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN
PLACE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE STATE TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS THEN BUILD A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THEREFORE
EXPECT AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH A TREND TOWARD QUIETER WEATHER AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z

ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN...MAINLY LIGHT...IS EXPECTED TO REACH IA BY
MID-AFTN AND SPREAD NE. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO CHANGE MUCH FROM
PRESENT VALUES WITH IT HOWEVER. HEAVIER PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND WILL BRING LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH A RETURN OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. STRONGER SOUTH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
AREAS EAST OF THE LOW AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MCV TRACKING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING ALONG WITH IT
MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. H850 FLOW AND PWATS
ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAINFALL TODAY.
TOTALS THROUGH 12Z SOUTH WILL APPROACH .50 TO .66 INCHES WHILE
LESSER BUT SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING BY EVENING WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST. TOTALS FOR THE DAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.50 NORTHWEST TO FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL HAVE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT TO RIVERS THOUGH
SUBSEQUENT RAINFALLS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AFTER 00Z MAY CAUSE
SOME HYDRO ISSUES ALONG MAINSTREAM RIVERS. AS THE FIRST SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST BY 20Z...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING SOUTHERN IOWA.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...NOT A LOT HAS CHANGED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE RIVER
OUTLOOKS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. AGAIN...A FEW
ENSEMBLES TO PUSH SOME OF THE RIVERS RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH
THE LOCATIONS CONTINUING TO BE ALONG THE DES MOINES AND RACCOON
RIVER BASINS. NO HYDRO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED...BUT THE SITUATION
IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...ZOGG
HYDROLOGY...REV/BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 241745
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 24/18Z TAFS...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WELL DEFINED MCV MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL KS AT 06Z WITH ATTENDANT
RAIN SHIELD EXPANDING NORTHEAST TOWARD IOWA. MODERATE TO HVY
RAINFALL ALREADY OCCURRING TO OUR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...H850 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST HAS MOVED LITTLE
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AT H850...MOISTURE CHANNEL
DIRECTED RIGHT AT EASTERN TX...NEARLY DUE NORTH TO EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA. CURRENTLY RAINFALL EFFICIENCY QUITE HIGH OVER
EASTERN KS WHERE ONE HOUR RATES ARE APPROACHING TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR TODAY...EXPECTING THE MCV TO
MOVE NORTH WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z... WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
WITH TIME. HAVE RAISED QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING...AND
PUSHED AMOUNTS HIGHER OVER THE EAST HALF THROUGH 18Z WITH LESS
EXPECTED WEST OF I35. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE SECOND WAVE...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN KS AGAIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
IOWA. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE TOMORROW NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY ALREADY INCREASES TO 1.70 INCHES BY 12Z
THROUGH INTERSTATE 80...AND ABOUT 1.5 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...EVEN
WITH LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY... SHOULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
RANGE OF TWO THIRDS TO 1.5 INCHES BY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NEARING TWO INCHES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE INFORMATION IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HELD IN CHECK WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED MOST OF THE MORNING... ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW HOURS BREAK IN THE
RAINFALL...SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK BUT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FOR THE INITIAL FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MAIN
CONCERNS ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. FIRST STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION TRACKING FROM SE NE
INTO SC MN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH A CONTINUED PUSH OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. PWATS IN THE  1.5
INCH RANGE WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...THEREFORE EXPECT EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY HAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED SOME BUT STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN DECENT RAIN EXPECTED TODAY
AS WELL. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA
MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY PERIOD OR IF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECT
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY BY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WAA TO CONTINUE WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER IMPULSE TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...MAY
SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA. AGAIN THIS PERIOD COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE GREATER INSTABILITY PRESENT.
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN
PLACE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE STATE TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS THEN BUILD A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THEREFORE
EXPECT AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH A TREND TOWARD QUIETER WEATHER AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z

ISSUED AT 1244 PM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN...MAINLY LIGHT...IS EXPECTED TO REACH IA BY
MID-AFTN AND SPREAD NE. DO NOT EXPECT CIGS/VSBYS TO CHANGE MUCH FROM
PRESENT VALUES WITH IT HOWEVER. HEAVIER PCPN IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
AND WILL BRING LOWER CIGS/VSBYS...WITH A RETURN OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS TONIGHT/OVERNIGHT. STRONGER SOUTH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY
AREAS EAST OF THE LOW AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MCV TRACKING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING ALONG WITH IT
MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. H850 FLOW AND PWATS
ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAINFALL TODAY.
TOTALS THROUGH 12Z SOUTH WILL APPROACH .50 TO .66 INCHES WHILE
LESSER BUT SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING BY EVENING WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST. TOTALS FOR THE DAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.50 NORTHWEST TO FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL HAVE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT TO RIVERS THOUGH
SUBSEQUENT RAINFALLS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AFTER 00Z MAY CAUSE
SOME HYDRO ISSUES ALONG MAINSTREAM RIVERS. AS THE FIRST SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST BY 20Z...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING SOUTHERN IOWA.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...NOT A LOT HAS CHANGED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE RIVER
OUTLOOKS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. AGAIN...A FEW
ENSEMBLES TO PUSH SOME OF THE RIVERS RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH
THE LOCATIONS CONTINUING TO BE ALONG THE DES MOINES AND RACCOON
RIVER BASINS. NO HYDRO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED...BUT THE SITUATION
IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...ZOGG
HYDROLOGY...REV/BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 241128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WELL DEFINED MCV MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL KS AT 06Z WITH ATTENDANT
RAIN SHIELD EXPANDING NORTHEAST TOWARD IOWA. MODERATE TO HVY
RAINFALL ALREADY OCCURRING TO OUR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...H850 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST HAS MOVED LITTLE
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AT H850...MOISTURE CHANNEL
DIRECTED RIGHT AT EASTERN TX...NEARLY DUE NORTH TO EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA. CURRENTLY RAINFALL EFFICIENCY QUITE HIGH OVER
EASTERN KS WHERE ONE HOUR RATES ARE APPROACHING TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR TODAY...EXPECTING THE MCV TO
MOVE NORTH WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z... WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
WITH TIME. HAVE RAISED QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING...AND
PUSHED AMOUNTS HIGHER OVER THE EAST HALF THROUGH 18Z WITH LESS
EXPECTED WEST OF I35. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE SECOND WAVE...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN KS AGAIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
IOWA. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE TOMORROW NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY ALREADY INCREASES TO 1.70 INCHES BY 12Z
THROUGH INTERSTATE 80...AND ABOUT 1.5 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...EVEN
WITH LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY... SHOULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
RANGE OF TWO THIRDS TO 1.5 INCHES BY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NEARING TWO INCHES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE INFORMATION IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HELD IN CHECK WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED MOST OF THE MORNING... ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW HOURS BREAK IN THE
RAINFALL...SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK BUT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FOR THE INITIAL FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MAIN
CONCERNS ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. FIRST STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION TRACKING FROM SE NE
INTO SC MN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH A CONTINUED PUSH OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. PWATS IN THE  1.5
INCH RANGE WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...THEREFORE EXPECT EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY HAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED SOME BUT STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN DECENT RAIN EXPECTED TODAY
AS WELL. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA
MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY PERIOD OR IF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECT
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY BY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WAA TO CONTINUE WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER IMPULSE TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...MAY
SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA. AGAIN THIS PERIOD COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE GREATER INSTABILITY PRESENT.
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN
PLACE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE STATE TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS THEN BUILD A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THEREFORE
EXPECT AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH A TREND TOWARD QUIETER WEATHER AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CHALLENGES TODAY INCLUDE CIGS...VSBY AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL.
FIRST MCV TRACKING ACROSS AREA DROPPING CIGS TO LIFR AND VSBY TO
2SM AT TIMES. LOWERING TRENDS WILL PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH 18Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS SOUTH AREAS BETWEEN 15-18Z AS AREAS
OF RAIN OVER MISSOURI SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. BY 22Z ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARD THE REGION WITH RETURN OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AFT 00Z SOUTH AND REMAINDER OF THE AREA BEFORE 05Z.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW TONIGHTS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...STRONGER
SOUTH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY AREAS EAST OF THE LOW AS WELL. WILL LET
DAY SHIFT REFINE DETAILS WITH 18Z PACKAGE. /REV

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MCV TRACKING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING ALONG WITH IT
MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. H850 FLOW AND PWATS
ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAINFALL TODAY.
TOTALS THROUGH 12Z SOUTH WILL APPROACH .50 TO .66 INCHES WHILE
LESSER BUT SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING BY EVENING WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST. TOTALS FOR THE DAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.50 NORTHWEST TO FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL HAVE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT TO RIVERS THOUGH
SUBSEQUENT RAINFALLS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AFTER 00Z MAY CAUSE
SOME HYDRO ISSUES ALONG MAINSTREAM RIVERS. AS THE FIRST SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST BY 20Z...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING SOUTHERN IOWA.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...NOT A LOT HAS CHANGED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE RIVER
OUTLOOKS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. AGAIN...A FEW
ENSEMBLES TO PUSH SOME OF THE RIVERS RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH
THE LOCATIONS CONTINUING TO BE ALONG THE DES MOINES AND RACCOON
RIVER BASINS. NO HYDRO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED...BUT THE SITUATION
IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
HYDROLOGY...REV/BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 241128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WELL DEFINED MCV MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL KS AT 06Z WITH ATTENDANT
RAIN SHIELD EXPANDING NORTHEAST TOWARD IOWA. MODERATE TO HVY
RAINFALL ALREADY OCCURRING TO OUR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...H850 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST HAS MOVED LITTLE
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AT H850...MOISTURE CHANNEL
DIRECTED RIGHT AT EASTERN TX...NEARLY DUE NORTH TO EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA. CURRENTLY RAINFALL EFFICIENCY QUITE HIGH OVER
EASTERN KS WHERE ONE HOUR RATES ARE APPROACHING TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR TODAY...EXPECTING THE MCV TO
MOVE NORTH WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z... WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
WITH TIME. HAVE RAISED QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING...AND
PUSHED AMOUNTS HIGHER OVER THE EAST HALF THROUGH 18Z WITH LESS
EXPECTED WEST OF I35. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE SECOND WAVE...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN KS AGAIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
IOWA. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE TOMORROW NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY ALREADY INCREASES TO 1.70 INCHES BY 12Z
THROUGH INTERSTATE 80...AND ABOUT 1.5 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...EVEN
WITH LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY... SHOULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
RANGE OF TWO THIRDS TO 1.5 INCHES BY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NEARING TWO INCHES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE INFORMATION IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HELD IN CHECK WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED MOST OF THE MORNING... ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW HOURS BREAK IN THE
RAINFALL...SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK BUT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FOR THE INITIAL FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MAIN
CONCERNS ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. FIRST STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION TRACKING FROM SE NE
INTO SC MN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH A CONTINUED PUSH OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. PWATS IN THE  1.5
INCH RANGE WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...THEREFORE EXPECT EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY HAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED SOME BUT STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN DECENT RAIN EXPECTED TODAY
AS WELL. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA
MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY PERIOD OR IF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECT
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY BY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WAA TO CONTINUE WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER IMPULSE TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...MAY
SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA. AGAIN THIS PERIOD COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE GREATER INSTABILITY PRESENT.
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN
PLACE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE STATE TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS THEN BUILD A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THEREFORE
EXPECT AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH A TREND TOWARD QUIETER WEATHER AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CHALLENGES TODAY INCLUDE CIGS...VSBY AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL.
FIRST MCV TRACKING ACROSS AREA DROPPING CIGS TO LIFR AND VSBY TO
2SM AT TIMES. LOWERING TRENDS WILL PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH 18Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS SOUTH AREAS BETWEEN 15-18Z AS AREAS
OF RAIN OVER MISSOURI SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. BY 22Z ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARD THE REGION WITH RETURN OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AFT 00Z SOUTH AND REMAINDER OF THE AREA BEFORE 05Z.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW TONIGHTS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...STRONGER
SOUTH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY AREAS EAST OF THE LOW AS WELL. WILL LET
DAY SHIFT REFINE DETAILS WITH 18Z PACKAGE. /REV

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MCV TRACKING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING ALONG WITH IT
MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. H850 FLOW AND PWATS
ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAINFALL TODAY.
TOTALS THROUGH 12Z SOUTH WILL APPROACH .50 TO .66 INCHES WHILE
LESSER BUT SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING BY EVENING WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST. TOTALS FOR THE DAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.50 NORTHWEST TO FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL HAVE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT TO RIVERS THOUGH
SUBSEQUENT RAINFALLS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AFTER 00Z MAY CAUSE
SOME HYDRO ISSUES ALONG MAINSTREAM RIVERS. AS THE FIRST SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST BY 20Z...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING SOUTHERN IOWA.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...NOT A LOT HAS CHANGED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE RIVER
OUTLOOKS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. AGAIN...A FEW
ENSEMBLES TO PUSH SOME OF THE RIVERS RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH
THE LOCATIONS CONTINUING TO BE ALONG THE DES MOINES AND RACCOON
RIVER BASINS. NO HYDRO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED...BUT THE SITUATION
IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
HYDROLOGY...REV/BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 241128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WELL DEFINED MCV MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL KS AT 06Z WITH ATTENDANT
RAIN SHIELD EXPANDING NORTHEAST TOWARD IOWA. MODERATE TO HVY
RAINFALL ALREADY OCCURRING TO OUR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...H850 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST HAS MOVED LITTLE
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AT H850...MOISTURE CHANNEL
DIRECTED RIGHT AT EASTERN TX...NEARLY DUE NORTH TO EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA. CURRENTLY RAINFALL EFFICIENCY QUITE HIGH OVER
EASTERN KS WHERE ONE HOUR RATES ARE APPROACHING TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR TODAY...EXPECTING THE MCV TO
MOVE NORTH WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z... WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
WITH TIME. HAVE RAISED QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING...AND
PUSHED AMOUNTS HIGHER OVER THE EAST HALF THROUGH 18Z WITH LESS
EXPECTED WEST OF I35. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE SECOND WAVE...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN KS AGAIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
IOWA. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE TOMORROW NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY ALREADY INCREASES TO 1.70 INCHES BY 12Z
THROUGH INTERSTATE 80...AND ABOUT 1.5 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...EVEN
WITH LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY... SHOULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
RANGE OF TWO THIRDS TO 1.5 INCHES BY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NEARING TWO INCHES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE INFORMATION IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HELD IN CHECK WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED MOST OF THE MORNING... ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW HOURS BREAK IN THE
RAINFALL...SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK BUT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FOR THE INITIAL FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MAIN
CONCERNS ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. FIRST STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION TRACKING FROM SE NE
INTO SC MN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH A CONTINUED PUSH OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. PWATS IN THE  1.5
INCH RANGE WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...THEREFORE EXPECT EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY HAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED SOME BUT STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN DECENT RAIN EXPECTED TODAY
AS WELL. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA
MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY PERIOD OR IF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECT
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY BY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WAA TO CONTINUE WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER IMPULSE TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...MAY
SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA. AGAIN THIS PERIOD COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE GREATER INSTABILITY PRESENT.
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN
PLACE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE STATE TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS THEN BUILD A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THEREFORE
EXPECT AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH A TREND TOWARD QUIETER WEATHER AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CHALLENGES TODAY INCLUDE CIGS...VSBY AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL.
FIRST MCV TRACKING ACROSS AREA DROPPING CIGS TO LIFR AND VSBY TO
2SM AT TIMES. LOWERING TRENDS WILL PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH 18Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS SOUTH AREAS BETWEEN 15-18Z AS AREAS
OF RAIN OVER MISSOURI SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. BY 22Z ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARD THE REGION WITH RETURN OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AFT 00Z SOUTH AND REMAINDER OF THE AREA BEFORE 05Z.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW TONIGHTS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...STRONGER
SOUTH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY AREAS EAST OF THE LOW AS WELL. WILL LET
DAY SHIFT REFINE DETAILS WITH 18Z PACKAGE. /REV

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MCV TRACKING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING ALONG WITH IT
MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. H850 FLOW AND PWATS
ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAINFALL TODAY.
TOTALS THROUGH 12Z SOUTH WILL APPROACH .50 TO .66 INCHES WHILE
LESSER BUT SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING BY EVENING WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST. TOTALS FOR THE DAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.50 NORTHWEST TO FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL HAVE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT TO RIVERS THOUGH
SUBSEQUENT RAINFALLS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AFTER 00Z MAY CAUSE
SOME HYDRO ISSUES ALONG MAINSTREAM RIVERS. AS THE FIRST SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST BY 20Z...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING SOUTHERN IOWA.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...NOT A LOT HAS CHANGED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE RIVER
OUTLOOKS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. AGAIN...A FEW
ENSEMBLES TO PUSH SOME OF THE RIVERS RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH
THE LOCATIONS CONTINUING TO BE ALONG THE DES MOINES AND RACCOON
RIVER BASINS. NO HYDRO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED...BUT THE SITUATION
IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
HYDROLOGY...REV/BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 241128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WELL DEFINED MCV MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL KS AT 06Z WITH ATTENDANT
RAIN SHIELD EXPANDING NORTHEAST TOWARD IOWA. MODERATE TO HVY
RAINFALL ALREADY OCCURRING TO OUR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...H850 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST HAS MOVED LITTLE
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AT H850...MOISTURE CHANNEL
DIRECTED RIGHT AT EASTERN TX...NEARLY DUE NORTH TO EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA. CURRENTLY RAINFALL EFFICIENCY QUITE HIGH OVER
EASTERN KS WHERE ONE HOUR RATES ARE APPROACHING TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR TODAY...EXPECTING THE MCV TO
MOVE NORTH WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z... WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
WITH TIME. HAVE RAISED QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING...AND
PUSHED AMOUNTS HIGHER OVER THE EAST HALF THROUGH 18Z WITH LESS
EXPECTED WEST OF I35. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE SECOND WAVE...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN KS AGAIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
IOWA. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE TOMORROW NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY ALREADY INCREASES TO 1.70 INCHES BY 12Z
THROUGH INTERSTATE 80...AND ABOUT 1.5 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...EVEN
WITH LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY... SHOULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
RANGE OF TWO THIRDS TO 1.5 INCHES BY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NEARING TWO INCHES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE INFORMATION IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HELD IN CHECK WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED MOST OF THE MORNING... ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW HOURS BREAK IN THE
RAINFALL...SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK BUT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FOR THE INITIAL FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MAIN
CONCERNS ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. FIRST STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION TRACKING FROM SE NE
INTO SC MN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH A CONTINUED PUSH OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. PWATS IN THE  1.5
INCH RANGE WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...THEREFORE EXPECT EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY HAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED SOME BUT STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN DECENT RAIN EXPECTED TODAY
AS WELL. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA
MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY PERIOD OR IF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECT
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY BY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WAA TO CONTINUE WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER IMPULSE TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...MAY
SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA. AGAIN THIS PERIOD COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE GREATER INSTABILITY PRESENT.
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN
PLACE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE STATE TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS THEN BUILD A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THEREFORE
EXPECT AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH A TREND TOWARD QUIETER WEATHER AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 622 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

CHALLENGES TODAY INCLUDE CIGS...VSBY AND INTENSITY OF RAINFALL.
FIRST MCV TRACKING ACROSS AREA DROPPING CIGS TO LIFR AND VSBY TO
2SM AT TIMES. LOWERING TRENDS WILL PROGRESS NORTH THROUGH 18Z WITH
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS SOUTH AREAS BETWEEN 15-18Z AS AREAS
OF RAIN OVER MISSOURI SHIFT NORTHEAST AS WELL. BY 22Z ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TOWARD THE REGION WITH RETURN OF IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS AFT 00Z SOUTH AND REMAINDER OF THE AREA BEFORE 05Z.
SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW TONIGHTS SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE...STRONGER
SOUTH WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY AREAS EAST OF THE LOW AS WELL. WILL LET
DAY SHIFT REFINE DETAILS WITH 18Z PACKAGE. /REV

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MCV TRACKING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING ALONG WITH IT
MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. H850 FLOW AND PWATS
ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAINFALL TODAY.
TOTALS THROUGH 12Z SOUTH WILL APPROACH .50 TO .66 INCHES WHILE
LESSER BUT SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING BY EVENING WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST. TOTALS FOR THE DAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.50 NORTHWEST TO FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL HAVE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT TO RIVERS THOUGH
SUBSEQUENT RAINFALLS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AFTER 00Z MAY CAUSE
SOME HYDRO ISSUES ALONG MAINSTREAM RIVERS. AS THE FIRST SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST BY 20Z...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING SOUTHERN IOWA.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...NOT A LOT HAS CHANGED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE RIVER
OUTLOOKS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. AGAIN...A FEW
ENSEMBLES TO PUSH SOME OF THE RIVERS RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH
THE LOCATIONS CONTINUING TO BE ALONG THE DES MOINES AND RACCOON
RIVER BASINS. NO HYDRO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED...BUT THE SITUATION
IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
HYDROLOGY...REV/BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 240825
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WELL DEFINED MCV MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL KS AT 06Z WITH ATTENDANT
RAIN SHIELD EXPANDING NORTHEAST TOWARD IOWA. MODERATE TO HVY
RAINFALL ALREADY OCCURRING TO OUR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...H850 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST HAS MOVED LITTLE
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AT H850...MOISTURE CHANNEL
DIRECTED RIGHT AT EASTERN TX...NEARLY DUE NORTH TO EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA. CURRENTLY RAINFALL EFFICIENCY QUITE HIGH OVER
EASTERN KS WHERE ONE HOUR RATES ARE APPROACHING TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR TODAY...EXPECTING THE MCV TO
MOVE NORTH WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z... WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
WITH TIME. HAVE RAISED QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING...AND
PUSHED AMOUNTS HIGHER OVER THE EAST HALF THROUGH 18Z WITH LESS
EXPECTED WEST OF I35. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE SECOND WAVE...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN KS AGAIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
IOWA. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE TOMORROW NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY ALREADY INCREASES TO 1.70 INCHES BY 12Z
THROUGH INTERSTATE 80...AND ABOUT 1.5 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...EVEN
WITH LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY... SHOULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
RANGE OF TWO THIRDS TO 1.5 INCHES BY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NEARING TWO INCHES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE INFORMATION IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HELD IN CHECK WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED MOST OF THE MORNING... ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW HOURS BREAK IN THE
RAINFALL...SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK BUT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FOR THE INITIAL FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MAIN
CONCERNS ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. FIRST STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION TRACKING FROM SE NE
INTO SC MN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH A CONTINUED PUSH OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. PWATS IN THE  1.5
INCH RANGE WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...THEREFORE EXPECT EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY HAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED SOME BUT STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN DECENT RAIN EXPECTED TODAY
AS WELL. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA
MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY PERIOD OR IF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECT
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY BY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WAA TO CONTINUE WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER IMPULSE TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...MAY
SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA. AGAIN THIS PERIOD COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE GREATER INSTABILITY PRESENT.
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN
PLACE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE STATE TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS THEN BUILD A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THEREFORE
EXPECT AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH A TREND TOWARD QUIETER WEATHER AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EVENTUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE WITH SHOWERS. THE
LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY COMING FROM
FALLING RAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MCV TRACKING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING ALONG WITH IT
MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. H850 FLOW AND PWATS
ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAINFALL TODAY.
TOTALS THROUGH 12Z SOUTH WILL APPROACH .50 TO .66 INCHES WHILE
LESSER BUT SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING BY EVENING WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST. TOTALS FOR THE DAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.50 NORTHWEST TO FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL HAVE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT TO RIVERS THOUGH
SUBSEQUENT RAINFALLS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AFTER 00Z MAY CAUSE
SOME HYDRO ISSUES ALONG MAINSTREAM RIVERS. AS THE FIRST SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST BY 20Z...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING SOUTHERN IOWA.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...NOT A LOT HAS CHANGED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE RIVER
OUTLOOKS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. AGAIN...A FEW
ENSEMBLES TO PUSH SOME OF THE RIVERS RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH
THE LOCATIONS CONTINUING TO BE ALONG THE DES MOINES AND RACCOON
RIVER BASINS. NO HYDRO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED...BUT THE SITUATION
IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...REV/BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 240825
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

WELL DEFINED MCV MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL KS AT 06Z WITH ATTENDANT
RAIN SHIELD EXPANDING NORTHEAST TOWARD IOWA. MODERATE TO HVY
RAINFALL ALREADY OCCURRING TO OUR SOUTH AT THIS TIME. OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS...H850 RIDGE AXIS OVER THE EAST COAST HAS MOVED LITTLE
WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW SETTING UP AT H850...MOISTURE CHANNEL
DIRECTED RIGHT AT EASTERN TX...NEARLY DUE NORTH TO EASTERN
NEBRASKA/IOWA. CURRENTLY RAINFALL EFFICIENCY QUITE HIGH OVER
EASTERN KS WHERE ONE HOUR RATES ARE APPROACHING TWO THIRDS OF AN
INCH IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. FOR TODAY...EXPECTING THE MCV TO
MOVE NORTH WITH THE FIRST WAVE OF RAINFALL PROGRESSING THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA BY 18Z... WEAKENING SLIGHTLY AS IT MOVES NORTHEAST
WITH TIME. HAVE RAISED QPF AMOUNTS THROUGH 12Z THIS MORNING...AND
PUSHED AMOUNTS HIGHER OVER THE EAST HALF THROUGH 18Z WITH LESS
EXPECTED WEST OF I35. BY LATE AFTERNOON THE SECOND WAVE...A
DEEPENING SFC LOW OVER EASTERN KS AGAIN WILL LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD
IOWA. THIS WILL BRING YET ANOTHER PUSH OF MOISTURE TOMORROW NIGHT.
PRECIPITABLE WATER TODAY ALREADY INCREASES TO 1.70 INCHES BY 12Z
THROUGH INTERSTATE 80...AND ABOUT 1.5 INCHES FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. TODAY...EVEN
WITH LACK OF MUCH INSTABILITY... SHOULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS IN THE
RANGE OF TWO THIRDS TO 1.5 INCHES BY AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS NEARING TWO INCHES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. MORE INFORMATION IN THE HYDRO
DISCUSSION BELOW. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE HELD IN CHECK WITH LOW
CLOUDS AND RAIN EXPECTED MOST OF THE MORNING... ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH MID AFTERNOON AND SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE
SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH A FEW HOURS BREAK IN THE
RAINFALL...SOME LOCATIONS WILL LIKELY BREAK THE 70 DEGREE MARK BUT
MANY AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTH SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

LITTLE HAS CHANGED FOR THE INITIAL FORECAST PERIOD...WITH MAIN
CONCERNS ON PRECIP CHANCES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO REMAIN IN THE WEST THROUGH MUCH OF THE
PERIOD...WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
REGION. FIRST STRONGER SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO LIFT THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SFC REFLECTION TRACKING FROM SE NE
INTO SC MN TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. WITH A CONTINUED PUSH OF
MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF AND WAA/THETA-E ADVECTION EXPECT
WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. PWATS IN THE  1.5
INCH RANGE WITH DEEP WARM CLOUD DEPTHS...THEREFORE EXPECT EFFICIENT
RAINFALL PRODUCTION. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED...SO ONLY HAVE
ISOLATED THUNDER AND THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT WILL BE
DIMINISHED SOME BUT STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN DECENT RAIN EXPECTED TODAY
AS WELL. AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO MINNESOTA
MONDAY...EXPECT A DRY PERIOD OR IF ANY LINGERING SHOWERS EXPECT
WIDELY SCATTERED COVERAGE MAINLY BY LATE MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. WAA TO CONTINUE WITH A WEAK BAROCLINIC ZONE
PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE CWA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. ANOTHER IMPULSE TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA...MAY
SET OFF SOME THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-
THIRDS OF THE CWA. AGAIN THIS PERIOD COULD BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE GREATER INSTABILITY PRESENT.
CONTINUED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA. THIS SHOULD
GIVE WAY TO A MOSTLY DRY WEDNESDAY WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE RIDGING IN
PLACE.

SOUTHWEST FLOW PATTERN CONTINUES INTO THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH A
STRONGER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO DROP THROUGH THE STATE TOWARD NEXT
WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS THEN BUILD A STRONGER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE INTO THE STATE FOR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK. THEREFORE
EXPECT AN ACTIVE WET PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK...WITH A TREND TOWARD QUIETER WEATHER AFTER NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR AVERAGE...MAYBE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN AVERAGE
THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EVENTUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE WITH SHOWERS. THE
LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY COMING FROM
FALLING RAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MCV TRACKING OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND WILL BRING ALONG WITH IT
MODERATE RAINFALL THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS. H850 FLOW AND PWATS
ALONG WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS WILL PROMOTE EFFICIENT RAINFALL TODAY.
TOTALS THROUGH 12Z SOUTH WILL APPROACH .50 TO .66 INCHES WHILE
LESSER BUT SIMILAR AMOUNTS WILL FALL OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ANOTHER SYSTEM ARRIVING BY EVENING WILL BRING
ADDITIONAL QUARTER INCH AMOUNTS SOUTHWEST. TOTALS FOR THE DAY SHOULD
RANGE FROM ABOUT 0.50 NORTHWEST TO FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST.
THE FIRST ROUND WILL HAVE LITTLE OVERALL IMPACT TO RIVERS THOUGH
SUBSEQUENT RAINFALLS IN THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AFTER 00Z MAY CAUSE
SOME HYDRO ISSUES ALONG MAINSTREAM RIVERS. AS THE FIRST SYSTEM
DEPARTS THE NORTHEAST BY 20Z...THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BEGIN
AFFECTING SOUTHERN IOWA.

ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL COME MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...NOT A LOT HAS CHANGED WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE RIVER
OUTLOOKS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW FLOOD STAGE. AGAIN...A FEW
ENSEMBLES TO PUSH SOME OF THE RIVERS RISING ABOVE FLOOD STAGE WITH
THE LOCATIONS CONTINUING TO BE ALONG THE DES MOINES AND RACCOON
RIVER BASINS. NO HYDRO HEADLINES ARE EXPECTED...BUT THE SITUATION
IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...REV/BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 240459
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD IN SOME WAYS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT. TOKEN ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN MOISTURE STARVED
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE PASSED THROUGH IA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BROAD
WEAK TO MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING IS IN PLACE
UPSTREAM. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...AND WHILE THERE IS NOT
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXPANSIVE WARM AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INCREASE INTO IA. SOUNDINGS SATURATE BY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES DOMINATING. THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...BUT TURN THE ATTENTION TO INCREASED RAIN
EFFICIENCY. MOST MODEL 300-305K ISENT SURFACES STILL DO NOT DEPICT A
SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH TIME...MORE OF A GRADUAL LIFT...BUT DO
SHOW SPEED CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING 09-12Z OVER SRN IA. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL BE PUSHING 12K FT...AND 00Z NAFES SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY...PWAT AND INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT PERCENTILES ARE
WELL INTO THE 90S AND SOME PUSHING ALL TIME MAXES.  HAVE GENERAL QPF
AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH THROUGH 12Z...AND THE MOST CONCERN MAY BE INTO
SUN...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR EXTENDED WILL COME WITH PRECIPITATION
TRENDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS SURFACE
LOW LIFTS INTO IOWA. PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY IN THE MORNING
HOURS WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION...DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTH AND PWAT VALUES 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLIMATOLOGY INDICATING 1.6 INCHES IS
NEAR +2SD FOR MAY. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...BEGINNING IN THE WEST AND SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. AGREE WITH THIS ARE FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST TO WARRANT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. CONCERN WILL
COME WITH AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH MODELS
INDICATING MORE SCATTERED NATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY SEE
DRY PERIOD BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE GENERAL ALONG AND EAST OF BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE
IN CENTRAL IOWA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE GENERALLY
WEAK...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY AS WITH LLJ FEEDING INTO BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. AS LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST...COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS BOUNDARY SLOWS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. HOWEVER...GFS HAS SLOWEST
PROGRESSION...WITH ECMWF/GEM ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
QUICKER TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE BEGUN CUTTING BACK ON POPS SOME
FOR MID WEEK. MONDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO THE AREA WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 2000 J/KG
OR HIGHER THROUGH THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAP
IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR WILL HELP TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL AND FEEL CURRENT SPC MARGINAL RISK IS
REPRESENTATIVE...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEYOND MID WEEK...GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE PERIOD...DROPPING BOUNDARY INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE IN THE PERIOD...GENERALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S...THOUGH COOLER EARL IN THE PERIOD WITH
PRECIPITATION...AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EVENTUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE WITH SHOWERS. THE
LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY COMING FROM
FALLING RAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

DETERMINISTIC QPF NOW SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAINS OVER
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MAINLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE RAINFALL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH THE EVENT MORE DUE TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE GRADUAL RUNOFF AND RIVER FORECAST CENTER MODELING
SUGGESTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK
RISES AT ALL FORECAST SITES.

HOWEVER IF THE HIGH END OF ENSEMBLE QPF AMOUNTS WOULD HAPPEN TO
OCCUR IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD LOCALLY ADD ANOTHER INCH OR
SO AND THIS IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EFFICIENT NATURE OF
EXPECTED RAINFALL...THE RACCOON RIVER BASIN AND DES MOINES RIVER
BASIN ABOVE SAYLORVILLE LAKE WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. THE RACCOON RIVER WOULD SEEM TO
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WITH MORE EXTREME RISES. THUS NO HYDRO HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT THE SITUATION WILL CERTAINLY BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IMPACT THE RACCOON AND UPPER DES MOINES BASINS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 240459
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD IN SOME WAYS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT. TOKEN ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN MOISTURE STARVED
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE PASSED THROUGH IA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BROAD
WEAK TO MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING IS IN PLACE
UPSTREAM. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...AND WHILE THERE IS NOT
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXPANSIVE WARM AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INCREASE INTO IA. SOUNDINGS SATURATE BY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES DOMINATING. THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...BUT TURN THE ATTENTION TO INCREASED RAIN
EFFICIENCY. MOST MODEL 300-305K ISENT SURFACES STILL DO NOT DEPICT A
SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH TIME...MORE OF A GRADUAL LIFT...BUT DO
SHOW SPEED CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING 09-12Z OVER SRN IA. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL BE PUSHING 12K FT...AND 00Z NAFES SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY...PWAT AND INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT PERCENTILES ARE
WELL INTO THE 90S AND SOME PUSHING ALL TIME MAXES.  HAVE GENERAL QPF
AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH THROUGH 12Z...AND THE MOST CONCERN MAY BE INTO
SUN...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR EXTENDED WILL COME WITH PRECIPITATION
TRENDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS SURFACE
LOW LIFTS INTO IOWA. PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY IN THE MORNING
HOURS WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION...DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTH AND PWAT VALUES 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLIMATOLOGY INDICATING 1.6 INCHES IS
NEAR +2SD FOR MAY. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...BEGINNING IN THE WEST AND SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. AGREE WITH THIS ARE FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST TO WARRANT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. CONCERN WILL
COME WITH AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH MODELS
INDICATING MORE SCATTERED NATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY SEE
DRY PERIOD BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE GENERAL ALONG AND EAST OF BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE
IN CENTRAL IOWA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE GENERALLY
WEAK...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY AS WITH LLJ FEEDING INTO BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. AS LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST...COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS BOUNDARY SLOWS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. HOWEVER...GFS HAS SLOWEST
PROGRESSION...WITH ECMWF/GEM ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
QUICKER TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE BEGUN CUTTING BACK ON POPS SOME
FOR MID WEEK. MONDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO THE AREA WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 2000 J/KG
OR HIGHER THROUGH THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAP
IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR WILL HELP TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL AND FEEL CURRENT SPC MARGINAL RISK IS
REPRESENTATIVE...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEYOND MID WEEK...GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE PERIOD...DROPPING BOUNDARY INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE IN THE PERIOD...GENERALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S...THOUGH COOLER EARL IN THE PERIOD WITH
PRECIPITATION...AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EVENTUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE WITH SHOWERS. THE
LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY COMING FROM
FALLING RAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

DETERMINISTIC QPF NOW SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAINS OVER
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MAINLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE RAINFALL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH THE EVENT MORE DUE TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE GRADUAL RUNOFF AND RIVER FORECAST CENTER MODELING
SUGGESTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK
RISES AT ALL FORECAST SITES.

HOWEVER IF THE HIGH END OF ENSEMBLE QPF AMOUNTS WOULD HAPPEN TO
OCCUR IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD LOCALLY ADD ANOTHER INCH OR
SO AND THIS IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EFFICIENT NATURE OF
EXPECTED RAINFALL...THE RACCOON RIVER BASIN AND DES MOINES RIVER
BASIN ABOVE SAYLORVILLE LAKE WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. THE RACCOON RIVER WOULD SEEM TO
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WITH MORE EXTREME RISES. THUS NO HYDRO HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT THE SITUATION WILL CERTAINLY BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IMPACT THE RACCOON AND UPPER DES MOINES BASINS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 240459
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD IN SOME WAYS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT. TOKEN ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN MOISTURE STARVED
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE PASSED THROUGH IA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BROAD
WEAK TO MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING IS IN PLACE
UPSTREAM. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...AND WHILE THERE IS NOT
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXPANSIVE WARM AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INCREASE INTO IA. SOUNDINGS SATURATE BY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES DOMINATING. THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...BUT TURN THE ATTENTION TO INCREASED RAIN
EFFICIENCY. MOST MODEL 300-305K ISENT SURFACES STILL DO NOT DEPICT A
SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH TIME...MORE OF A GRADUAL LIFT...BUT DO
SHOW SPEED CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING 09-12Z OVER SRN IA. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL BE PUSHING 12K FT...AND 00Z NAFES SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY...PWAT AND INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT PERCENTILES ARE
WELL INTO THE 90S AND SOME PUSHING ALL TIME MAXES.  HAVE GENERAL QPF
AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH THROUGH 12Z...AND THE MOST CONCERN MAY BE INTO
SUN...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR EXTENDED WILL COME WITH PRECIPITATION
TRENDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS SURFACE
LOW LIFTS INTO IOWA. PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY IN THE MORNING
HOURS WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION...DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTH AND PWAT VALUES 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLIMATOLOGY INDICATING 1.6 INCHES IS
NEAR +2SD FOR MAY. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...BEGINNING IN THE WEST AND SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. AGREE WITH THIS ARE FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST TO WARRANT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. CONCERN WILL
COME WITH AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH MODELS
INDICATING MORE SCATTERED NATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY SEE
DRY PERIOD BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE GENERAL ALONG AND EAST OF BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE
IN CENTRAL IOWA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE GENERALLY
WEAK...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY AS WITH LLJ FEEDING INTO BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. AS LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST...COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS BOUNDARY SLOWS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. HOWEVER...GFS HAS SLOWEST
PROGRESSION...WITH ECMWF/GEM ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
QUICKER TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE BEGUN CUTTING BACK ON POPS SOME
FOR MID WEEK. MONDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO THE AREA WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 2000 J/KG
OR HIGHER THROUGH THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAP
IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR WILL HELP TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL AND FEEL CURRENT SPC MARGINAL RISK IS
REPRESENTATIVE...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEYOND MID WEEK...GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE PERIOD...DROPPING BOUNDARY INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE IN THE PERIOD...GENERALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S...THOUGH COOLER EARL IN THE PERIOD WITH
PRECIPITATION...AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EVENTUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE WITH SHOWERS. THE
LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY COMING FROM
FALLING RAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

DETERMINISTIC QPF NOW SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAINS OVER
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MAINLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE RAINFALL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH THE EVENT MORE DUE TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE GRADUAL RUNOFF AND RIVER FORECAST CENTER MODELING
SUGGESTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK
RISES AT ALL FORECAST SITES.

HOWEVER IF THE HIGH END OF ENSEMBLE QPF AMOUNTS WOULD HAPPEN TO
OCCUR IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD LOCALLY ADD ANOTHER INCH OR
SO AND THIS IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EFFICIENT NATURE OF
EXPECTED RAINFALL...THE RACCOON RIVER BASIN AND DES MOINES RIVER
BASIN ABOVE SAYLORVILLE LAKE WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. THE RACCOON RIVER WOULD SEEM TO
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WITH MORE EXTREME RISES. THUS NO HYDRO HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT THE SITUATION WILL CERTAINLY BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IMPACT THE RACCOON AND UPPER DES MOINES BASINS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 240459
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1159 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD IN SOME WAYS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT. TOKEN ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN MOISTURE STARVED
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE PASSED THROUGH IA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BROAD
WEAK TO MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING IS IN PLACE
UPSTREAM. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...AND WHILE THERE IS NOT
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXPANSIVE WARM AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INCREASE INTO IA. SOUNDINGS SATURATE BY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES DOMINATING. THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...BUT TURN THE ATTENTION TO INCREASED RAIN
EFFICIENCY. MOST MODEL 300-305K ISENT SURFACES STILL DO NOT DEPICT A
SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH TIME...MORE OF A GRADUAL LIFT...BUT DO
SHOW SPEED CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING 09-12Z OVER SRN IA. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL BE PUSHING 12K FT...AND 00Z NAFES SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY...PWAT AND INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT PERCENTILES ARE
WELL INTO THE 90S AND SOME PUSHING ALL TIME MAXES.  HAVE GENERAL QPF
AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH THROUGH 12Z...AND THE MOST CONCERN MAY BE INTO
SUN...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR EXTENDED WILL COME WITH PRECIPITATION
TRENDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS SURFACE
LOW LIFTS INTO IOWA. PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY IN THE MORNING
HOURS WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION...DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTH AND PWAT VALUES 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLIMATOLOGY INDICATING 1.6 INCHES IS
NEAR +2SD FOR MAY. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...BEGINNING IN THE WEST AND SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. AGREE WITH THIS ARE FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST TO WARRANT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. CONCERN WILL
COME WITH AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH MODELS
INDICATING MORE SCATTERED NATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY SEE
DRY PERIOD BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE GENERAL ALONG AND EAST OF BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE
IN CENTRAL IOWA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE GENERALLY
WEAK...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY AS WITH LLJ FEEDING INTO BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. AS LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST...COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS BOUNDARY SLOWS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. HOWEVER...GFS HAS SLOWEST
PROGRESSION...WITH ECMWF/GEM ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
QUICKER TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE BEGUN CUTTING BACK ON POPS SOME
FOR MID WEEK. MONDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO THE AREA WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 2000 J/KG
OR HIGHER THROUGH THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAP
IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR WILL HELP TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL AND FEEL CURRENT SPC MARGINAL RISK IS
REPRESENTATIVE...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEYOND MID WEEK...GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE PERIOD...DROPPING BOUNDARY INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE IN THE PERIOD...GENERALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S...THOUGH COOLER EARL IN THE PERIOD WITH
PRECIPITATION...AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CEILINGS
EVENTUALLY SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE WITH SHOWERS. THE
LOW CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL PERSIST INTO SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ANY RESTRICTIONS TO VISIBILITY COMING FROM
FALLING RAIN. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT AND INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

DETERMINISTIC QPF NOW SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAINS OVER
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MAINLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE RAINFALL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH THE EVENT MORE DUE TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE GRADUAL RUNOFF AND RIVER FORECAST CENTER MODELING
SUGGESTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK
RISES AT ALL FORECAST SITES.

HOWEVER IF THE HIGH END OF ENSEMBLE QPF AMOUNTS WOULD HAPPEN TO
OCCUR IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD LOCALLY ADD ANOTHER INCH OR
SO AND THIS IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EFFICIENT NATURE OF
EXPECTED RAINFALL...THE RACCOON RIVER BASIN AND DES MOINES RIVER
BASIN ABOVE SAYLORVILLE LAKE WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. THE RACCOON RIVER WOULD SEEM TO
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WITH MORE EXTREME RISES. THUS NO HYDRO HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT THE SITUATION WILL CERTAINLY BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IMPACT THE RACCOON AND UPPER DES MOINES BASINS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 240005
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
705 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD IN SOME WAYS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT. TOKEN ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN MOISTURE STARVED
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE PASSED THROUGH IA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BROAD
WEAK TO MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING IS IN PLACE
UPSTREAM. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...AND WHILE THERE IS NOT
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXPANSIVE WARM AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INCREASE INTO IA. SOUNDINGS SATURATE BY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES DOMINATING. THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...BUT TURN THE ATTENTION TO INCREASED RAIN
EFFICIENCY. MOST MODEL 300-305K ISENT SURFACES STILL DO NOT DEPICT A
SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH TIME...MORE OF A GRADUAL LIFT...BUT DO
SHOW SPEED CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING 09-12Z OVER SRN IA. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL BE PUSHING 12K FT...AND 00Z NAFES SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY...PWAT AND INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT PERCENTILES ARE
WELL INTO THE 90S AND SOME PUSHING ALL TIME MAXES.  HAVE GENERAL QPF
AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH THROUGH 12Z...AND THE MOST CONCERN MAY BE INTO
SUN...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR EXTENDED WILL COME WITH PRECIPITATION
TRENDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS SURFACE
LOW LIFTS INTO IOWA. PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY IN THE MORNING
HOURS WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION...DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTH AND PWAT VALUES 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLIMATOLOGY INDICATING 1.6 INCHES IS
NEAR +2SD FOR MAY. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...BEGINNING IN THE WEST AND SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. AGREE WITH THIS ARE FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST TO WARRANT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. CONCERN WILL
COME WITH AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH MODELS
INDICATING MORE SCATTERED NATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY SEE
DRY PERIOD BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE GENERAL ALONG AND EAST OF BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE
IN CENTRAL IOWA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE GENERALLY
WEAK...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY AS WITH LLJ FEEDING INTO BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. AS LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST...COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS BOUNDARY SLOWS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. HOWEVER...GFS HAS SLOWEST
PROGRESSION...WITH ECMWF/GEM ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
QUICKER TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE BEGUN CUTTING BACK ON POPS SOME
FOR MID WEEK. MONDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO THE AREA WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 2000 J/KG
OR HIGHER THROUGH THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAP
IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR WILL HELP TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL AND FEEL CURRENT SPC MARGINAL RISK IS
REPRESENTATIVE...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEYOND MID WEEK...GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE PERIOD...DROPPING BOUNDARY INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE IN THE PERIOD...GENERALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S...THOUGH COOLER EARL IN THE PERIOD WITH
PRECIPITATION...AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...24/00Z
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAD MOVED IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
IFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL. SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL
BE WIDESPREAD BY LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY ALTHOUGH
WITH DECREASED COVERAGE. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

DETERMINISTIC QPF NOW SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAINS OVER
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MAINLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE RAINFALL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH THE EVENT MORE DUE TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE GRADUAL RUNOFF AND RIVER FORECAST CENTER MODELING
SUGGESTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK
RISES AT ALL FORECAST SITES.

HOWEVER IF THE HIGH END OF ENSEMBLE QPF AMOUNTS WOULD HAPPEN TO
OCCUR IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD LOCALLY ADD ANOTHER INCH OR
SO AND THIS IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EFFICIENT NATURE OF
EXPECTED RAINFALL...THE RACCOON RIVER BASIN AND DES MOINES RIVER
BASIN ABOVE SAYLORVILLE LAKE WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. THE RACCOON RIVER WOULD SEEM TO
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WITH MORE EXTREME RISES. THUS NO HYDRO HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT THE SITUATION WILL CERTAINLY BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IMPACT THE RACCOON AND UPPER DES MOINES BASINS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 240005
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
705 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD IN SOME WAYS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT. TOKEN ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN MOISTURE STARVED
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE PASSED THROUGH IA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BROAD
WEAK TO MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING IS IN PLACE
UPSTREAM. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...AND WHILE THERE IS NOT
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXPANSIVE WARM AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INCREASE INTO IA. SOUNDINGS SATURATE BY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES DOMINATING. THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...BUT TURN THE ATTENTION TO INCREASED RAIN
EFFICIENCY. MOST MODEL 300-305K ISENT SURFACES STILL DO NOT DEPICT A
SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH TIME...MORE OF A GRADUAL LIFT...BUT DO
SHOW SPEED CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING 09-12Z OVER SRN IA. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL BE PUSHING 12K FT...AND 00Z NAFES SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY...PWAT AND INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT PERCENTILES ARE
WELL INTO THE 90S AND SOME PUSHING ALL TIME MAXES.  HAVE GENERAL QPF
AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH THROUGH 12Z...AND THE MOST CONCERN MAY BE INTO
SUN...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR EXTENDED WILL COME WITH PRECIPITATION
TRENDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS SURFACE
LOW LIFTS INTO IOWA. PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY IN THE MORNING
HOURS WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION...DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTH AND PWAT VALUES 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLIMATOLOGY INDICATING 1.6 INCHES IS
NEAR +2SD FOR MAY. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...BEGINNING IN THE WEST AND SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. AGREE WITH THIS ARE FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST TO WARRANT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. CONCERN WILL
COME WITH AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH MODELS
INDICATING MORE SCATTERED NATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY SEE
DRY PERIOD BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE GENERAL ALONG AND EAST OF BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE
IN CENTRAL IOWA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE GENERALLY
WEAK...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY AS WITH LLJ FEEDING INTO BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. AS LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST...COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS BOUNDARY SLOWS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. HOWEVER...GFS HAS SLOWEST
PROGRESSION...WITH ECMWF/GEM ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
QUICKER TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE BEGUN CUTTING BACK ON POPS SOME
FOR MID WEEK. MONDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO THE AREA WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 2000 J/KG
OR HIGHER THROUGH THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAP
IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR WILL HELP TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL AND FEEL CURRENT SPC MARGINAL RISK IS
REPRESENTATIVE...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEYOND MID WEEK...GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE PERIOD...DROPPING BOUNDARY INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE IN THE PERIOD...GENERALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S...THOUGH COOLER EARL IN THE PERIOD WITH
PRECIPITATION...AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...24/00Z
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAD MOVED IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
IFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL. SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL
BE WIDESPREAD BY LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY ALTHOUGH
WITH DECREASED COVERAGE. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

DETERMINISTIC QPF NOW SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAINS OVER
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MAINLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE RAINFALL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH THE EVENT MORE DUE TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE GRADUAL RUNOFF AND RIVER FORECAST CENTER MODELING
SUGGESTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK
RISES AT ALL FORECAST SITES.

HOWEVER IF THE HIGH END OF ENSEMBLE QPF AMOUNTS WOULD HAPPEN TO
OCCUR IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD LOCALLY ADD ANOTHER INCH OR
SO AND THIS IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EFFICIENT NATURE OF
EXPECTED RAINFALL...THE RACCOON RIVER BASIN AND DES MOINES RIVER
BASIN ABOVE SAYLORVILLE LAKE WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. THE RACCOON RIVER WOULD SEEM TO
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WITH MORE EXTREME RISES. THUS NO HYDRO HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT THE SITUATION WILL CERTAINLY BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IMPACT THE RACCOON AND UPPER DES MOINES BASINS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 240005
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
705 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD IN SOME WAYS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT. TOKEN ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN MOISTURE STARVED
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE PASSED THROUGH IA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BROAD
WEAK TO MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING IS IN PLACE
UPSTREAM. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...AND WHILE THERE IS NOT
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXPANSIVE WARM AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INCREASE INTO IA. SOUNDINGS SATURATE BY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES DOMINATING. THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...BUT TURN THE ATTENTION TO INCREASED RAIN
EFFICIENCY. MOST MODEL 300-305K ISENT SURFACES STILL DO NOT DEPICT A
SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH TIME...MORE OF A GRADUAL LIFT...BUT DO
SHOW SPEED CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING 09-12Z OVER SRN IA. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL BE PUSHING 12K FT...AND 00Z NAFES SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY...PWAT AND INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT PERCENTILES ARE
WELL INTO THE 90S AND SOME PUSHING ALL TIME MAXES.  HAVE GENERAL QPF
AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH THROUGH 12Z...AND THE MOST CONCERN MAY BE INTO
SUN...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR EXTENDED WILL COME WITH PRECIPITATION
TRENDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS SURFACE
LOW LIFTS INTO IOWA. PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY IN THE MORNING
HOURS WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION...DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTH AND PWAT VALUES 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLIMATOLOGY INDICATING 1.6 INCHES IS
NEAR +2SD FOR MAY. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...BEGINNING IN THE WEST AND SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. AGREE WITH THIS ARE FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST TO WARRANT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. CONCERN WILL
COME WITH AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH MODELS
INDICATING MORE SCATTERED NATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY SEE
DRY PERIOD BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE GENERAL ALONG AND EAST OF BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE
IN CENTRAL IOWA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE GENERALLY
WEAK...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY AS WITH LLJ FEEDING INTO BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. AS LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST...COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS BOUNDARY SLOWS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. HOWEVER...GFS HAS SLOWEST
PROGRESSION...WITH ECMWF/GEM ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
QUICKER TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE BEGUN CUTTING BACK ON POPS SOME
FOR MID WEEK. MONDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO THE AREA WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 2000 J/KG
OR HIGHER THROUGH THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAP
IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR WILL HELP TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL AND FEEL CURRENT SPC MARGINAL RISK IS
REPRESENTATIVE...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEYOND MID WEEK...GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE PERIOD...DROPPING BOUNDARY INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE IN THE PERIOD...GENERALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S...THOUGH COOLER EARL IN THE PERIOD WITH
PRECIPITATION...AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...24/00Z
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAD MOVED IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
IFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL. SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL
BE WIDESPREAD BY LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY ALTHOUGH
WITH DECREASED COVERAGE. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

DETERMINISTIC QPF NOW SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAINS OVER
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MAINLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE RAINFALL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH THE EVENT MORE DUE TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE GRADUAL RUNOFF AND RIVER FORECAST CENTER MODELING
SUGGESTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK
RISES AT ALL FORECAST SITES.

HOWEVER IF THE HIGH END OF ENSEMBLE QPF AMOUNTS WOULD HAPPEN TO
OCCUR IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD LOCALLY ADD ANOTHER INCH OR
SO AND THIS IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EFFICIENT NATURE OF
EXPECTED RAINFALL...THE RACCOON RIVER BASIN AND DES MOINES RIVER
BASIN ABOVE SAYLORVILLE LAKE WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. THE RACCOON RIVER WOULD SEEM TO
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WITH MORE EXTREME RISES. THUS NO HYDRO HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT THE SITUATION WILL CERTAINLY BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IMPACT THE RACCOON AND UPPER DES MOINES BASINS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 240005
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
705 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD IN SOME WAYS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT. TOKEN ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN MOISTURE STARVED
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE PASSED THROUGH IA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BROAD
WEAK TO MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING IS IN PLACE
UPSTREAM. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...AND WHILE THERE IS NOT
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXPANSIVE WARM AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INCREASE INTO IA. SOUNDINGS SATURATE BY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES DOMINATING. THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...BUT TURN THE ATTENTION TO INCREASED RAIN
EFFICIENCY. MOST MODEL 300-305K ISENT SURFACES STILL DO NOT DEPICT A
SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH TIME...MORE OF A GRADUAL LIFT...BUT DO
SHOW SPEED CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING 09-12Z OVER SRN IA. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL BE PUSHING 12K FT...AND 00Z NAFES SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY...PWAT AND INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT PERCENTILES ARE
WELL INTO THE 90S AND SOME PUSHING ALL TIME MAXES.  HAVE GENERAL QPF
AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH THROUGH 12Z...AND THE MOST CONCERN MAY BE INTO
SUN...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR EXTENDED WILL COME WITH PRECIPITATION
TRENDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS SURFACE
LOW LIFTS INTO IOWA. PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY IN THE MORNING
HOURS WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION...DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTH AND PWAT VALUES 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLIMATOLOGY INDICATING 1.6 INCHES IS
NEAR +2SD FOR MAY. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...BEGINNING IN THE WEST AND SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. AGREE WITH THIS ARE FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST TO WARRANT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. CONCERN WILL
COME WITH AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH MODELS
INDICATING MORE SCATTERED NATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY SEE
DRY PERIOD BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE GENERAL ALONG AND EAST OF BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE
IN CENTRAL IOWA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE GENERALLY
WEAK...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY AS WITH LLJ FEEDING INTO BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. AS LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST...COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS BOUNDARY SLOWS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. HOWEVER...GFS HAS SLOWEST
PROGRESSION...WITH ECMWF/GEM ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
QUICKER TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE BEGUN CUTTING BACK ON POPS SOME
FOR MID WEEK. MONDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO THE AREA WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 2000 J/KG
OR HIGHER THROUGH THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAP
IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR WILL HELP TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL AND FEEL CURRENT SPC MARGINAL RISK IS
REPRESENTATIVE...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEYOND MID WEEK...GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE PERIOD...DROPPING BOUNDARY INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE IN THE PERIOD...GENERALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S...THOUGH COOLER EARL IN THE PERIOD WITH
PRECIPITATION...AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...24/00Z
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MVFR CEILINGS HAD MOVED IN SOUTHWEST IOWA AND WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH
OF CENTRAL IOWA TONIGHT ALONG WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOWER CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY WITH
IFR CONDITIONS FROM TIME TO TIME AS WELL. SHOWERS ACTIVITY WILL
BE WIDESPREAD BY LATE TONIGHT AND PERSIST INTO SUNDAY ALTHOUGH
WITH DECREASED COVERAGE. SURFACE WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

DETERMINISTIC QPF NOW SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAINS OVER
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MAINLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE RAINFALL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH THE EVENT MORE DUE TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE GRADUAL RUNOFF AND RIVER FORECAST CENTER MODELING
SUGGESTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK
RISES AT ALL FORECAST SITES.

HOWEVER IF THE HIGH END OF ENSEMBLE QPF AMOUNTS WOULD HAPPEN TO
OCCUR IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD LOCALLY ADD ANOTHER INCH OR
SO AND THIS IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EFFICIENT NATURE OF
EXPECTED RAINFALL...THE RACCOON RIVER BASIN AND DES MOINES RIVER
BASIN ABOVE SAYLORVILLE LAKE WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. THE RACCOON RIVER WOULD SEEM TO
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WITH MORE EXTREME RISES. THUS NO HYDRO HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT THE SITUATION WILL CERTAINLY BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IMPACT THE RACCOON AND UPPER DES MOINES BASINS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...COGIL
HYDROLOGY...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 232052
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD IN SOME WAYS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT. TOKEN ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN MOISTURE STARVED
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE PASSED THROUGH IA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BROAD
WEAK TO MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING IS IN PLACE
UPSTREAM. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...AND WHILE THERE IS NOT
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXPANSIVE WARM AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INCREASE INTO IA. SOUNDINGS SATURATE BY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES DOMINATING. THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...BUT TURN THE ATTENTION TO INCREASED RAIN
EFFICIENCY. MOST MODEL 300-305K ISENT SURFACES STILL DO NOT DEPICT A
SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH TIME...MORE OF A GRADUAL LIFT...BUT DO
SHOW SPEED CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING 09-12Z OVER SRN IA. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL BE PUSHING 12K FT...AND 00Z NAFES SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY...PWAT AND INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT PERCENTILES ARE
WELL INTO THE 90S AND SOME PUSHING ALL TIME MAXES.  HAVE GENERAL QPF
AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH THROUGH 12Z...AND THE MOST CONCERN MAY BE INTO
SUN...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR EXTENDED WILL COME WITH PRECIPITATION
TRENDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS SURFACE
LOW LIFTS INTO IOWA. PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY IN THE MORNING
HOURS WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION...DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTH AND PWAT VALUES 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLIMATOLOGY INDICATING 1.6 INCHES IS
NEAR +2SD FOR MAY. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...BEGINNING IN THE WEST AND SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. AGREE WITH THIS ARE FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST TO WARRANT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. CONCERN WILL
COME WITH AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH MODELS
INDICATING MORE SCATTERED NATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY SEE
DRY PERIOD BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE GENERAL ALONG AND EAST OF BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE
IN CENTRAL IOWA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE GENERALLY
WEAK...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY AS WITH LLJ FEEDING INTO BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. AS LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST...COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS BOUNDARY SLOWS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. HOWEVER...GFS HAS SLOWEST
PROGRESSION...WITH ECMWF/GEM ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
QUICKER TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE BEGUN CUTTING BACK ON POPS SOME
FOR MID WEEK. MONDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO THE AREA WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 2000 J/KG
OR HIGHER THROUGH THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAP
IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR WILL HELP TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL AND FEEL CURRENT SPC MARGINAL RISK IS
REPRESENTATIVE...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEYOND MID WEEK...GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE PERIOD...DROPPING BOUNDARY INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE IN THE PERIOD...GENERALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S...THOUGH COOLER EARL IN THE PERIOD WITH
PRECIPITATION...AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE DOWNWARD CIG/VSBY TRENDS WITH PRECIP
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUN. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD AT LEAST MVFR CIGS DEVELOP SW-NE WITH
INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LEADING TO IFR AT LEAST
SOUTHWEST /KFOD/KDSM/ LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT CONFIDENCE IN ACCURATE INCLUSION IN SUCH
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP IS TOO LOW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

DETERMINISTIC QPF NOW SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAINS OVER
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MAINLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE RAINFALL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH THE EVENT MORE DUE TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE GRADUAL RUNOFF AND RIVER FORECAST CENTER MODELING
SUGGESTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK
RISES AT ALL FORECAST SITES.

HOWEVER IF THE HIGH END OF ENSEMBLE QPF AMOUNTS WOULD HAPPEN TO
OCCUR IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD LOCALLY ADD ANOTHER INCH OR
SO AND THIS IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EFFICIENT NATURE OF
EXPECTED RAINFALL...THE RACCOON RIVER BASIN AND DES MOINES RIVER
BASIN ABOVE SAYLORVILLE LAKE WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. THE RACCOON RIVER WOULD SEEM TO
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WITH MORE EXTREME RISES. THUS NO HYDRO HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT THE SITUATION WILL CERTAINLY BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IMPACT THE RACCOON AND UPPER DES MOINES BASINS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SMALL
HYDROLOGY...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 232052
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD IN SOME WAYS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT. TOKEN ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN MOISTURE STARVED
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE PASSED THROUGH IA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BROAD
WEAK TO MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING IS IN PLACE
UPSTREAM. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...AND WHILE THERE IS NOT
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXPANSIVE WARM AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INCREASE INTO IA. SOUNDINGS SATURATE BY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES DOMINATING. THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...BUT TURN THE ATTENTION TO INCREASED RAIN
EFFICIENCY. MOST MODEL 300-305K ISENT SURFACES STILL DO NOT DEPICT A
SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH TIME...MORE OF A GRADUAL LIFT...BUT DO
SHOW SPEED CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING 09-12Z OVER SRN IA. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL BE PUSHING 12K FT...AND 00Z NAFES SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY...PWAT AND INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT PERCENTILES ARE
WELL INTO THE 90S AND SOME PUSHING ALL TIME MAXES.  HAVE GENERAL QPF
AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH THROUGH 12Z...AND THE MOST CONCERN MAY BE INTO
SUN...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR EXTENDED WILL COME WITH PRECIPITATION
TRENDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS SURFACE
LOW LIFTS INTO IOWA. PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY IN THE MORNING
HOURS WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION...DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTH AND PWAT VALUES 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLIMATOLOGY INDICATING 1.6 INCHES IS
NEAR +2SD FOR MAY. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...BEGINNING IN THE WEST AND SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. AGREE WITH THIS ARE FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST TO WARRANT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. CONCERN WILL
COME WITH AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH MODELS
INDICATING MORE SCATTERED NATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY SEE
DRY PERIOD BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE GENERAL ALONG AND EAST OF BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE
IN CENTRAL IOWA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE GENERALLY
WEAK...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY AS WITH LLJ FEEDING INTO BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. AS LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST...COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS BOUNDARY SLOWS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. HOWEVER...GFS HAS SLOWEST
PROGRESSION...WITH ECMWF/GEM ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
QUICKER TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE BEGUN CUTTING BACK ON POPS SOME
FOR MID WEEK. MONDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO THE AREA WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 2000 J/KG
OR HIGHER THROUGH THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAP
IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR WILL HELP TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL AND FEEL CURRENT SPC MARGINAL RISK IS
REPRESENTATIVE...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEYOND MID WEEK...GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE PERIOD...DROPPING BOUNDARY INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE IN THE PERIOD...GENERALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S...THOUGH COOLER EARL IN THE PERIOD WITH
PRECIPITATION...AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE DOWNWARD CIG/VSBY TRENDS WITH PRECIP
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUN. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD AT LEAST MVFR CIGS DEVELOP SW-NE WITH
INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LEADING TO IFR AT LEAST
SOUTHWEST /KFOD/KDSM/ LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT CONFIDENCE IN ACCURATE INCLUSION IN SUCH
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP IS TOO LOW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

DETERMINISTIC QPF NOW SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAINS OVER
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MAINLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE RAINFALL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH THE EVENT MORE DUE TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE GRADUAL RUNOFF AND RIVER FORECAST CENTER MODELING
SUGGESTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK
RISES AT ALL FORECAST SITES.

HOWEVER IF THE HIGH END OF ENSEMBLE QPF AMOUNTS WOULD HAPPEN TO
OCCUR IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD LOCALLY ADD ANOTHER INCH OR
SO AND THIS IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EFFICIENT NATURE OF
EXPECTED RAINFALL...THE RACCOON RIVER BASIN AND DES MOINES RIVER
BASIN ABOVE SAYLORVILLE LAKE WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. THE RACCOON RIVER WOULD SEEM TO
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WITH MORE EXTREME RISES. THUS NO HYDRO HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT THE SITUATION WILL CERTAINLY BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IMPACT THE RACCOON AND UPPER DES MOINES BASINS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SMALL
HYDROLOGY...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 232052
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

THE FORECAST IS FAIRLY STRAIGHT FORWARD IN SOME WAYS WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT CONVECTION WILL SPREAD NORTH AND EAST INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT. TOKEN ELEVATED LIGHT SHOWERS IN MOISTURE STARVED
ISENTROPIC LIFT HAVE PASSED THROUGH IA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT BROAD
WEAK TO MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING IS IN PLACE
UPSTREAM. THIS WILL PERSIST INTO THE NIGHT...AND WHILE THERE IS NOT
A WELL DEFINED BAROCLINIC ZONE...EXPANSIVE WARM AND THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND
INCREASE INTO IA. SOUNDINGS SATURATE BY EARLY SUN MORNING WITH MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES DOMINATING. THIS WILL PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT...BUT TURN THE ATTENTION TO INCREASED RAIN
EFFICIENCY. MOST MODEL 300-305K ISENT SURFACES STILL DO NOT DEPICT A
SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH TIME...MORE OF A GRADUAL LIFT...BUT DO
SHOW SPEED CONVERGENCE DEVELOPING 09-12Z OVER SRN IA. WARM CLOUD
DEPTHS WILL BE PUSHING 12K FT...AND 00Z NAFES SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY...PWAT AND INTEGRATED WATER VAPOR TRANSPORT PERCENTILES ARE
WELL INTO THE 90S AND SOME PUSHING ALL TIME MAXES.  HAVE GENERAL QPF
AMOUNTS UNDER AN INCH THROUGH 12Z...AND THE MOST CONCERN MAY BE INTO
SUN...BUT THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.


.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR EXTENDED WILL COME WITH PRECIPITATION
TRENDS FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO BE
ONGOING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA BY BEGINNING OF PERIOD AS SURFACE
LOW LIFTS INTO IOWA. PRECIPITATION COULD BE HEAVY IN THE MORNING
HOURS WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING GOOD SATURATION...DEEP WARM CLOUD
DEPTH AND PWAT VALUES 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER WHICH IS EXTREMELY HIGH
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...WITH CLIMATOLOGY INDICATING 1.6 INCHES IS
NEAR +2SD FOR MAY. HIGH RES MODELS GENERALLY HAVE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS...BEGINNING IN THE WEST AND SHIFTING EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. AGREE WITH THIS ARE FOR THE HEAVIEST
PRECIPITATION...THOUGH ENOUGH FORCING AND MOISTURE FURTHER NORTH
AND EAST TO WARRANT HIGHER POPS ACROSS THIS AREA. CONCERN WILL
COME WITH AFTERNOON PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WITH MODELS
INDICATING MORE SCATTERED NATURE IN THE AFTERNOON...AND MAY SEE
DRY PERIOD BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. BEST
CHANCES WILL BE GENERAL ALONG AND EAST OF BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE
IN CENTRAL IOWA. INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL BE GENERALLY
WEAK...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL AGAIN INCREASE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
SUNDAY AS WITH LLJ FEEDING INTO BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTH. AS LOW
PULLS NORTHEAST...COULD SEE LINGERING PRECIPITATION IN THE WEST
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AS BOUNDARY SLOWS SOMEWHAT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. HOWEVER...GFS HAS SLOWEST
PROGRESSION...WITH ECMWF/GEM ENDING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA
QUICKER TUESDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE BEGUN CUTTING BACK ON POPS SOME
FOR MID WEEK. MONDAY WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
POTENTIAL TO THE AREA WITH CAPE VALUES EXPECTED TO REACH 2000 J/KG
OR HIGHER THROUGH THE CWA. HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS INDICATE WEAK CAP
IN PLACE WITH GENERALLY WEAK SHEAR WILL HELP TO LIMIT SEVERE
POTENTIAL AND FEEL CURRENT SPC MARGINAL RISK IS
REPRESENTATIVE...THOUGH WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED.

BEYOND MID WEEK...GENERALLY SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL
ALLOW FOR PERIODS OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO DROP SOUTH
INTO CENTRAL CANADA LATE IN THE PERIOD...DROPPING BOUNDARY INTO
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BRING BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION
LATE IN THE PERIOD...GENERALLY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH PERIOD WITH HIGHS
IN THE 70S AND 80S...THOUGH COOLER EARL IN THE PERIOD WITH
PRECIPITATION...AND LOWS IN THE 50S AND 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE DOWNWARD CIG/VSBY TRENDS WITH PRECIP
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUN. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD AT LEAST MVFR CIGS DEVELOP SW-NE WITH
INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LEADING TO IFR AT LEAST
SOUTHWEST /KFOD/KDSM/ LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT CONFIDENCE IN ACCURATE INCLUSION IN SUCH
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP IS TOO LOW.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

DETERMINISTIC QPF NOW SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD ONE TO TWO INCH RAINS OVER
THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...MAINLY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WITH
INTENSE RAINFALL ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...WITH THE EVENT MORE DUE TO A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A BIT MORE GRADUAL RUNOFF AND RIVER FORECAST CENTER MODELING
SUGGESTS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK
RISES AT ALL FORECAST SITES.

HOWEVER IF THE HIGH END OF ENSEMBLE QPF AMOUNTS WOULD HAPPEN TO
OCCUR IN CERTAIN LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD LOCALLY ADD ANOTHER INCH OR
SO AND THIS IS ENTIRELY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE EFFICIENT NATURE OF
EXPECTED RAINFALL...THE RACCOON RIVER BASIN AND DES MOINES RIVER
BASIN ABOVE SAYLORVILLE LAKE WOULD BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO
REACHING OR EXCEEDING FLOOD STAGE. THE RACCOON RIVER WOULD SEEM TO
BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE WITH MORE EXTREME RISES. THUS NO HYDRO HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME BUT THE SITUATION WILL CERTAINLY BE
CLOSELY MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY IF HIGHER
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IMPACT THE RACCOON AND UPPER DES MOINES BASINS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SMALL
LONG TERM...AWB
AVIATION...SMALL
HYDROLOGY...SMALL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 231824
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
124 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FIRST PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING SPRINKLES OVER NORTHWEST
AREAS EARLY TODAY...ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE.  AS IS THE CASE
CURRENTLY...THE SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN
21 AND 00Z WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING DRY AIR AS IT MOVES
INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN IOWA INITIALLY...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POP AND
QPF THROUGH 00Z TODAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
LITTLE IN WAY OF INSTABILITY AS DRY LAYER AND LACK OF ANY TREMENDOUS
MOISTURE PUSH SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR ANY
THUNDER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RECOVER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLER SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE THICKER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW APPROACHES SOME INCREASE IN SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS BUT GRADIENT QUITE LIGHT SO OVERALL WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE A FACTOR IN TODAYS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TODAY INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE MONDAY...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED ALOFT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SRN MN WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA
INTO THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THIS LOW...WITH MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PIECES OF ENERGY ALOFT TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A LONG-DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INITIALLY STILL HAVE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS
THE STATE THIS EVENING...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS MORE ORIENTED INTO NEBRASKA/SW IOWA
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME DRIER AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FINALLY ORIENTS MORE INTO CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD 09-12Z
SUNDAY...THEREFORE HAVE CUT BACK ON THE PROGRESSION OF POPS FOR
THIS EVENING SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS TOWARD SUNRISE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO BE POINTED
INTO CENTRAL IA AND MN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW SMALL
BREAKS IN THE RAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN
QUITE STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. CAPE CONTINUES TO BE MARGINAL
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT DOES START TO PICK UP
SOME LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WENT WITH
AN ISOLATE THUNDER MENTION THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...WITH STRAIGHT
THUNDER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COMES MONDAY WITH THE CWA CLEARLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO SWING THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT.

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT MINIMAL GIVEN THE LOWER AMOUNTS OF
CAPE INITIALLY...MOIST SOUNDINGS AND MORE UNILATERAL SHEAR PROFILES.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR MONDAY...BUT OVERALL A HYDROLOGY ISSUE
MAY BE MORE LIKELY. PWATS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR CLIMATOLOGY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SHIFT OR SO TO SEE IF ANY HEADLINE
IS WARRANTED GIVEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
ENERGY TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ROCKIES WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE. OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD THROUGHOUT AS WELL...WITH
H85 TEMPS IN THE TEENS CELSIUS. THIS SHOULD KEEP US NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE DOWNWARD CIG/VSBY TRENDS WITH PRECIP
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUN. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD AT LEAST MVFR CIGS DEVELOP SW-NE WITH
INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LEADING TO IFR AT LEAST
SOUTHWEST /KFOD/KDSM/ LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT CONFIDENCE IN ACCURATE INCLUSION IN SUCH
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP IS TOO LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED...SO HAVE KEPT THE DISCUSSION SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS VERSION.

A WET NEXT FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE AN INITIAL RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A
SUBSEQUENT RISK OF AT LEAST ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...AND
POSSIBLY RIVER FLOODING...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE DES MOINES AND RACCOON BASINS...AS WELL AS
MISSOURI RIVER DRAINAGE BASINS IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA...ARE OF MOST
CONCERN AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...THE 12Z HYDRO MODEL 72 HR QPF
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN THE EXPECTED AND 95
PERCENT MAX QPF TRACES...INDICATING RELATIVELY HIGH SENSITIVITY IN
THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL TO QPF. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 72 EXPECTED QPF
TRACES SLOW THE FALLS OF MOST STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT TEMPORARY
INCREASES...WHILE THE 72 HR 95 PERCENT MAX QPF TRACES SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RISES...WITH MULTIPLE RIVER FORECAST POINTS RISING TO
NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z QPF ENSEMBLES USED IN THE 12Z
HYDRO MODEL APPEAR TO BE UNDERDONE...WITH TOTAL EXPECTED 72-HR QPF
POSSIBLY FALLING CLOSER TO THE 95 PERCENT MAX QPF ENSEMBLE MEMBER
THAN THE 50 PERCENT QPF ENSEMBLE MEMBER.

GIVEN THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL SENSITIVITY TO THE QPF...AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ENSEMBLE QPF BEING UNDERDONE...UNCERTAINTY IN THE
RIVER RESPONSES IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS PARTICULAR EVENT.
THIS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY WILL NECESSITATE CLOSE
MONITORING OF QPF TRENDS...AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS ON THE HYDRO MODEL
GOING FORWARD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 231824
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
124 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FIRST PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING SPRINKLES OVER NORTHWEST
AREAS EARLY TODAY...ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE.  AS IS THE CASE
CURRENTLY...THE SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN
21 AND 00Z WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING DRY AIR AS IT MOVES
INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN IOWA INITIALLY...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POP AND
QPF THROUGH 00Z TODAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
LITTLE IN WAY OF INSTABILITY AS DRY LAYER AND LACK OF ANY TREMENDOUS
MOISTURE PUSH SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR ANY
THUNDER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RECOVER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLER SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE THICKER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW APPROACHES SOME INCREASE IN SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS BUT GRADIENT QUITE LIGHT SO OVERALL WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE A FACTOR IN TODAYS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TODAY INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE MONDAY...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED ALOFT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SRN MN WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA
INTO THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THIS LOW...WITH MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PIECES OF ENERGY ALOFT TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A LONG-DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INITIALLY STILL HAVE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS
THE STATE THIS EVENING...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS MORE ORIENTED INTO NEBRASKA/SW IOWA
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME DRIER AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FINALLY ORIENTS MORE INTO CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD 09-12Z
SUNDAY...THEREFORE HAVE CUT BACK ON THE PROGRESSION OF POPS FOR
THIS EVENING SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS TOWARD SUNRISE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO BE POINTED
INTO CENTRAL IA AND MN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW SMALL
BREAKS IN THE RAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN
QUITE STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. CAPE CONTINUES TO BE MARGINAL
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT DOES START TO PICK UP
SOME LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WENT WITH
AN ISOLATE THUNDER MENTION THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...WITH STRAIGHT
THUNDER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COMES MONDAY WITH THE CWA CLEARLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO SWING THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT.

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT MINIMAL GIVEN THE LOWER AMOUNTS OF
CAPE INITIALLY...MOIST SOUNDINGS AND MORE UNILATERAL SHEAR PROFILES.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR MONDAY...BUT OVERALL A HYDROLOGY ISSUE
MAY BE MORE LIKELY. PWATS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR CLIMATOLOGY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SHIFT OR SO TO SEE IF ANY HEADLINE
IS WARRANTED GIVEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
ENERGY TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ROCKIES WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE. OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD THROUGHOUT AS WELL...WITH
H85 TEMPS IN THE TEENS CELSIUS. THIS SHOULD KEEP US NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 120 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN CONCERN TODAY WILL BE DOWNWARD CIG/VSBY TRENDS WITH PRECIP
OVERNIGHT AND INTO SUN. LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOWEVER WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND SPOTTY LIGHT SHOWERS.
SHOULD SEE WIDESPREAD AT LEAST MVFR CIGS DEVELOP SW-NE WITH
INCREASING SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...LIKELY LEADING TO IFR AT LEAST
SOUTHWEST /KFOD/KDSM/ LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE COULD CERTAINLY BE
SOME RUMBLES OF THUNDER BUT CONFIDENCE IN ACCURATE INCLUSION IN SUCH
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF PRECIP IS TOO LOW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED...SO HAVE KEPT THE DISCUSSION SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS VERSION.

A WET NEXT FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE AN INITIAL RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A
SUBSEQUENT RISK OF AT LEAST ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...AND
POSSIBLY RIVER FLOODING...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE DES MOINES AND RACCOON BASINS...AS WELL AS
MISSOURI RIVER DRAINAGE BASINS IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA...ARE OF MOST
CONCERN AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...THE 12Z HYDRO MODEL 72 HR QPF
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN THE EXPECTED AND 95
PERCENT MAX QPF TRACES...INDICATING RELATIVELY HIGH SENSITIVITY IN
THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL TO QPF. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 72 EXPECTED QPF
TRACES SLOW THE FALLS OF MOST STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT TEMPORARY
INCREASES...WHILE THE 72 HR 95 PERCENT MAX QPF TRACES SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RISES...WITH MULTIPLE RIVER FORECAST POINTS RISING TO
NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z QPF ENSEMBLES USED IN THE 12Z
HYDRO MODEL APPEAR TO BE UNDERDONE...WITH TOTAL EXPECTED 72-HR QPF
POSSIBLY FALLING CLOSER TO THE 95 PERCENT MAX QPF ENSEMBLE MEMBER
THAN THE 50 PERCENT QPF ENSEMBLE MEMBER.

GIVEN THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL SENSITIVITY TO THE QPF...AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ENSEMBLE QPF BEING UNDERDONE...UNCERTAINTY IN THE
RIVER RESPONSES IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS PARTICULAR EVENT.
THIS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY WILL NECESSITATE CLOSE
MONITORING OF QPF TRENDS...AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS ON THE HYDRO MODEL
GOING FORWARD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 231114
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
614 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

FIRST PUSH OF WARM AIR ADVECTION PRODUCING SPRINKLES OVER NORTHWEST
AREAS EARLY TODAY...ENDING PRIOR TO SUNRISE.  AS IS THE CASE
CURRENTLY...THE SECOND PUSH OF SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN
21 AND 00Z WILL HAVE SOME DIFFICULTY OVERCOMING DRY AIR AS IT MOVES
INTO SOUTHWEST/SOUTHERN IOWA INITIALLY...SO HAVE CUT BACK ON POP AND
QPF THROUGH 00Z TODAY. BUFR SOUNDINGS AND MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW
LITTLE IN WAY OF INSTABILITY AS DRY LAYER AND LACK OF ANY TREMENDOUS
MOISTURE PUSH SHOULD RESULT IN SHOWERS WITH LITTLE THREAT FOR ANY
THUNDER TODAY. HIGHS WILL RECOVER DESPITE THE CLOUD COVER INTO THE
LOWER TO MID 70S...COOLER SOUTHWEST WHERE CLOUDS MAY BE THICKER
DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS LOW APPROACHES SOME INCREASE IN SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS BUT GRADIENT QUITE LIGHT SO OVERALL WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE A FACTOR IN TODAYS FORECAST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT FROM THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TODAY INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO BY LATE MONDAY...WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED ALOFT. THE ASSOCIATED SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SRN MN WITH THE SFC TROUGH AXIS STRETCHING ACROSS WESTERN IOWA
INTO THE PLAINS STATES MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE AHEAD
OF THIS LOW...WITH MOISTURE TO SURGE NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. PIECES OF ENERGY ALOFT TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WHICH COMBINED WITH STRONG THETA-E
ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A LONG-DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT THROUGH
THE NEXT FEW DAYS. INITIALLY STILL HAVE BRIEF RIDGING ALOFT ACROSS
THE STATE THIS EVENING...WITH ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS MORE ORIENTED INTO NEBRASKA/SW IOWA
THIS EVENING...WITH SOME DRIER AIR TO OVERCOME INITIALLY. MOISTURE
TRANSPORT FINALLY ORIENTS MORE INTO CENTRAL IOWA TOWARD 09-12Z
SUNDAY...THEREFORE HAVE CUT BACK ON THE PROGRESSION OF POPS FOR
THIS EVENING SPREADING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS TOWARD SUNRISE. MOISTURE TRANSPORT CONTINUES TO BE POINTED
INTO CENTRAL IA AND MN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. EXPECT A FEW SMALL
BREAKS IN THE RAIN FOR SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL WILL LIKELY REMAIN
QUITE STEADY THROUGH THE DAY. CAPE CONTINUES TO BE MARGINAL
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT DOES START TO PICK UP
SOME LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE WENT WITH
AN ISOLATE THUNDER MENTION THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY...WITH STRAIGHT
THUNDER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY/MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. BETTER CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS COMES MONDAY WITH THE CWA CLEARLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR AND THE SFC TROUGH AXIS TO SWING THROUGH THE CWA MONDAY
NIGHT.

OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SOMEWHAT MINIMAL GIVEN THE LOWER AMOUNTS OF
CAPE INITIALLY...MOIST SOUNDINGS AND MORE UNILATERAL SHEAR PROFILES.
SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCES FOR MONDAY...BUT OVERALL A HYDROLOGY ISSUE
MAY BE MORE LIKELY. PWATS TO INCREASE TO AROUND 1.4 TO 1.5 INCHES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHICH IS FAIRLY HIGH FOR CLIMATOLOGY. WILL
HAVE TO MONITOR OVER THE NEXT SHIFT OR SO TO SEE IF ANY HEADLINE
IS WARRANTED GIVEN THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN EXPECTED. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY FLOW EXPECTED ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW
ENERGY TO CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE ROCKIES WITH
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION EACH DAY. BEST CHANCES LOOK TO BE
THURSDAY WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
STATE. OVERALL TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD THROUGHOUT AS WELL...WITH
H85 TEMPS IN THE TEENS CELSIUS. THIS SHOULD KEEP US NEAR AVERAGE
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION...23/12Z
ISSUED AT 614 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

MINOR CONCERNS EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH GENERALLY VFR CIGS AND
VCSH OR ISO --SHRA THROUGH 00Z. AS UPPER LEVEL WAVE AND STRONGER
WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES BETWEEN 03-09Z...WILL SEE GRADUAL
INCREASE IN -SHRA COVERAGE AS WELL AS RETURN TO MVFR CIGS MOST
AREAS TOWARD 12Z. WINDS REMAIN SOUTH SOUTHEAST WITH SOME GUSTS
15KT THROUGH 23Z...THEN 10KT OR LESS AFT 00Z. JUST BEYOND PERIOD
FROM 24/12 ON...CIGS WILL DROP QUICKLY TO MVFR/IFR AND -TSRA/SHRA
WILL BE COMMON. /REV

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 332 AM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED...SO HAVE KEPT THE DISCUSSION SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS VERSION.

A WET NEXT FEW DAYS IS EXPECTED TO PROVIDE AN INITIAL RISK FOR
FLASH FLOODING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THEN A
SUBSEQUENT RISK OF AT LEAST ADDITIONAL RISES ON AREA RIVERS...AND
POSSIBLY RIVER FLOODING...BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY PARTS OF NEXT WEEK. THE MIDDLE AND LOWER
PORTIONS OF THE DES MOINES AND RACCOON BASINS...AS WELL AS
MISSOURI RIVER DRAINAGE BASINS IN THE SOUTHWEST CWA...ARE OF MOST
CONCERN AT THIS TIME.

IN TERMS OF RIVER FLOODING...THE 12Z HYDRO MODEL 72 HR QPF
ENSEMBLES ARE SHOWING A WIDE SPREAD BETWEEN THE EXPECTED AND 95
PERCENT MAX QPF TRACES...INDICATING RELATIVELY HIGH SENSITIVITY IN
THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL TO QPF. FOR EXAMPLE...THE 72 EXPECTED QPF
TRACES SLOW THE FALLS OF MOST STREAMS...WITH SOME SLIGHT TEMPORARY
INCREASES...WHILE THE 72 HR 95 PERCENT MAX QPF TRACES SHOW
SIGNIFICANT RISES...WITH MULTIPLE RIVER FORECAST POINTS RISING TO
NEAR OR ABOVE FLOOD STAGE.

IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z QPF ENSEMBLES USED IN THE 12Z
HYDRO MODEL APPEAR TO BE UNDERDONE...WITH TOTAL EXPECTED 72-HR QPF
POSSIBLY FALLING CLOSER TO THE 95 PERCENT MAX QPF ENSEMBLE MEMBER
THAN THE 50 PERCENT QPF ENSEMBLE MEMBER.

GIVEN THE HYDROLOGIC MODEL SENSITIVITY TO THE QPF...AS WELL AS THE
POSSIBILITY OF ENSEMBLE QPF BEING UNDERDONE...UNCERTAINTY IN THE
RIVER RESPONSES IS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS PARTICULAR EVENT.
THIS HIGHER THAN AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY WILL NECESSITATE CLOSE
MONITORING OF QPF TRENDS...AND SUBSEQUENT IMPACTS ON THE HYDRO MODEL
GOING FORWARD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG





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