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000
FXUS63 KDMX 211741
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1141 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOME MINOR CHANGES WITH ONGOING FORECAST...MAINLY WITH THE ONSET
OF THE FZDZ/FZRA THIS EVENING AS DELAYED TIMING 1-2 HOURS NORTH OF
I-80. OTHERWISE...SOUNDINGS STILL BECOMES SATURATED UP TO AROUND
700MB BY 00Z SATURDAY AND THE HIRES MODELS DEPICTING A DECENT
CLUSTER/BAND OF PRECIP TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN IOWA
BETWEEN 00-03Z AND FURTHER NORTHEAST FROM 02-05Z TONIGHT. LOWERED
SURFACE TEMPS SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 34 AS
RAP/SREF/HRRR SLOWER WITH THE WAA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL PROLONG THE FZDZ/FZRA POTENTIAL NORTH I80/EAST I35 INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IL WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH WARMING
BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT ALREADY. THE SHALLOW INVERSION WILL
BE SLOW TO BREAK EVEN THOUGH H8 TEMPS WILL RISE WELL DURING THE
DAY. MOISTURE IS WORKING NORTH AS SEEN IN THE FOG PRODUCT THIS
MORNING WORKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MO.
EVEN SO...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY TO REACH IA. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE IT WILL BE SHALLOW AND DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MORE THAN
DRIZZLE FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SOUTH. MAX TEMPS FOR THE
DAY WILL COME AT 00Z WITH CONTINUED WARMING AFTER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED HAS BEEN ON FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE BEING
CLOSE TO THE ONSET OF THE EVENT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON SEVERAL FRONTS. THE FIRST PERTAINS TO PRECIP TIMING
AND DURATION WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVING SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PRECIP PLACEMENT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE EASTERN CWA. RECENT RUNS
OF THE GFS AND SREF ALSO BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE LAST FEW
RUNS AND NOW HAVE MUCH OF SOUTHERN IOWA ABOVE FREEZING FOR MIN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THE NAM REMAINS THE STOUT COLD OUTLIER OF
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THAT BEING SAID...OUR RECORD-SETTING COLD SNAP OVER THE LAST WEEK
AND A HALF HAS LED TO FROST DEPTHS OF 6+ INCHES IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH THE WARMER AIR ARRIVING IN CONJUGATION WITH THE
PRECIP...GROUND SURFACES WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO THAW AND SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN
THE 32-34 DEGREE RANGE. THE POINT AT WHICH THE WAA AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THESE COLD GROUND TEMPS IS ANOTHER
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. USED AN ARBITRARY CUTOFF OF A 33 DEGREE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE TO MARK THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE FZRA
AND RAIN. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN COORDINATION WITH ARX AND DVN...DRIVEN HEAVILY
BY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THIS ADVISORY COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS...WITH FZRA STILL
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THIS ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST BEYOND
SUNDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES STILL SHOW LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MOS GUIDANCE STILL HAS THE SOUTHERN
CWA SITES BREAKING 50 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT HELD
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION. DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
FROM TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. RECENT
GFS/EC RUNS HAVE TAKEN THE LOW ON A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD
TRACK...WHICH WOULD PULL THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FURTHER TOWARDS THE
EASTERN CWA BORDER. LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY SLIGHTLY BASED
ON THESE TRENDS. COLDER AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THE LOW ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CHANGES ANY REMAINING PRECIP TO SNOW. AFTERWARDS THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL MORE SHOTS OF SNOW THROUGH THE WEEK...FIRST AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL LOW ON MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY (ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
WINDS)...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

EXPECTING CIGS TO DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WITH MENTIONING IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SLUG OF
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5000 FEET. MANY
STATIONS ALREADY REPORTING IFR/LOWER MVFR CIGS UNDER THE STRATUS
SHIELD EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING. FZDZ/FZRA
LIKELY TONIGHT AND ONLY CHANGE WAS A SLIGHT DELAY WITH THE ONSET
AND THEN WARMER TEMPS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT SHOULD SWITCH IT OVER TO
DZ/RA BY THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MVFR CIGS HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WARREN-WORTH-WRIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PODRAZIK
SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 211741
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1141 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

SOME MINOR CHANGES WITH ONGOING FORECAST...MAINLY WITH THE ONSET
OF THE FZDZ/FZRA THIS EVENING AS DELAYED TIMING 1-2 HOURS NORTH OF
I-80. OTHERWISE...SOUNDINGS STILL BECOMES SATURATED UP TO AROUND
700MB BY 00Z SATURDAY AND THE HIRES MODELS DEPICTING A DECENT
CLUSTER/BAND OF PRECIP TO SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN IOWA
BETWEEN 00-03Z AND FURTHER NORTHEAST FROM 02-05Z TONIGHT. LOWERED
SURFACE TEMPS SLIGHTLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF HWY 34 AS
RAP/SREF/HRRR SLOWER WITH THE WAA INTO THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
WILL PROLONG THE FZDZ/FZRA POTENTIAL NORTH I80/EAST I35 INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IL WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH WARMING
BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT ALREADY. THE SHALLOW INVERSION WILL
BE SLOW TO BREAK EVEN THOUGH H8 TEMPS WILL RISE WELL DURING THE
DAY. MOISTURE IS WORKING NORTH AS SEEN IN THE FOG PRODUCT THIS
MORNING WORKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MO.
EVEN SO...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY TO REACH IA. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE IT WILL BE SHALLOW AND DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MORE THAN
DRIZZLE FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SOUTH. MAX TEMPS FOR THE
DAY WILL COME AT 00Z WITH CONTINUED WARMING AFTER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED HAS BEEN ON FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE BEING
CLOSE TO THE ONSET OF THE EVENT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON SEVERAL FRONTS. THE FIRST PERTAINS TO PRECIP TIMING
AND DURATION WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVING SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PRECIP PLACEMENT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE EASTERN CWA. RECENT RUNS
OF THE GFS AND SREF ALSO BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE LAST FEW
RUNS AND NOW HAVE MUCH OF SOUTHERN IOWA ABOVE FREEZING FOR MIN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THE NAM REMAINS THE STOUT COLD OUTLIER OF
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THAT BEING SAID...OUR RECORD-SETTING COLD SNAP OVER THE LAST WEEK
AND A HALF HAS LED TO FROST DEPTHS OF 6+ INCHES IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH THE WARMER AIR ARRIVING IN CONJUGATION WITH THE
PRECIP...GROUND SURFACES WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO THAW AND SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN
THE 32-34 DEGREE RANGE. THE POINT AT WHICH THE WAA AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THESE COLD GROUND TEMPS IS ANOTHER
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. USED AN ARBITRARY CUTOFF OF A 33 DEGREE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE TO MARK THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE FZRA
AND RAIN. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN COORDINATION WITH ARX AND DVN...DRIVEN HEAVILY
BY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THIS ADVISORY COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS...WITH FZRA STILL
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THIS ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST BEYOND
SUNDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES STILL SHOW LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MOS GUIDANCE STILL HAS THE SOUTHERN
CWA SITES BREAKING 50 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT HELD
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION. DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
FROM TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. RECENT
GFS/EC RUNS HAVE TAKEN THE LOW ON A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD
TRACK...WHICH WOULD PULL THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FURTHER TOWARDS THE
EASTERN CWA BORDER. LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY SLIGHTLY BASED
ON THESE TRENDS. COLDER AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THE LOW ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CHANGES ANY REMAINING PRECIP TO SNOW. AFTERWARDS THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL MORE SHOTS OF SNOW THROUGH THE WEEK...FIRST AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL LOW ON MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY (ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
WINDS)...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z
ISSUED AT 1141 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

EXPECTING CIGS TO DECREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS DOWN TO AT LEAST MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR AT TIMES. HIGHER
CONFIDENCE WITH MENTIONING IFR CIGS OVERNIGHT WITH SLUG OF
MOISTURE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND MODEL
SOUNDINGS SATURATED FROM THE SURFACE TO AROUND 5000 FEET. MANY
STATIONS ALREADY REPORTING IFR/LOWER MVFR CIGS UNDER THE STRATUS
SHIELD EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE STATE THIS EVENING. FZDZ/FZRA
LIKELY TONIGHT AND ONLY CHANGE WAS A SLIGHT DELAY WITH THE ONSET
AND THEN WARMER TEMPS MOVING IN OVERNIGHT SHOULD SWITCH IT OVER TO
DZ/RA BY THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE. MVFR CIGS HANG AROUND THROUGH MUCH
OF SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WARREN-WORTH-WRIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
WAYNE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PODRAZIK
SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 211142
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
542 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IL WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH WARMING
BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT ALREADY. THE SHALLOW INVERSION WILL
BE SLOW TO BREAK EVEN THOUGH H8 TEMPS WILL RISE WELL DURING THE
DAY. MOISTURE IS WORKING NORTH AS SEEN IN THE FOG PRODUCT THIS
MORNING WORKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MO.
EVEN SO...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY TO REACH IA. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE IT WILL BE SHALLOW AND DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MORE THAN
DRIZZLE FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SOUTH. MAX TEMPS FOR THE
DAY WILL COME AT 00Z WITH CONTINUED WARMING AFTER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED HAS BEEN ON FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE BEING
CLOSE TO THE ONSET OF THE EVENT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON SEVERAL FRONTS. THE FIRST PERTAINS TO PRECIP TIMING
AND DURATION WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVING SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PRECIP PLACEMENT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE EASTERN CWA. RECENT RUNS
OF THE GFS AND SREF ALSO BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE LAST FEW
RUNS AND NOW HAVE MUCH OF SOUTHERN IOWA ABOVE FREEZING FOR MIN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THE NAM REMAINS THE STOUT COLD OUTLIER OF
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THAT BEING SAID...OUR RECORD-SETTING COLD SNAP OVER THE LAST WEEK
AND A HALF HAS LED TO FROST DEPTHS OF 6+ INCHES IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH THE WARMER AIR ARRIVING IN CONJUGATION WITH THE
PRECIP...GROUND SURFACES WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO THAW AND SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN
THE 32-34 DEGREE RANGE. THE POINT AT WHICH THE WAA AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THESE COLD GROUND TEMPS IS ANOTHER
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. USED AN ARBITRARY CUTOFF OF A 33 DEGREE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE TO MARK THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE FZRA
AND RAIN. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN COORDINATION WITH ARX AND DVN...DRIVEN HEAVILY
BY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THIS ADVISORY COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS...WITH FZRA STILL
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THIS ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST BEYOND
SUNDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES STILL SHOW LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MOS GUIDANCE STILL HAS THE SOUTHERN
CWA SITES BREAKING 50 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT HELD
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION. DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
FROM TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. RECENT
GFS/EC RUNS HAVE TAKEN THE LOW ON A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD
TRACK...WHICH WOULD PULL THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FURTHER TOWARDS THE
EASTERN CWA BORDER. LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY SLIGHTLY BASED
ON THESE TRENDS. COLDER AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THE LOW ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CHANGES ANY REMAINING PRECIP TO SNOW. AFTERWARDS THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL MORE SHOTS OF SNOW THROUGH THE WEEK...FIRST AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL LOW ON MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY (ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
WINDS)...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH. LOW CIGS FROM SRN
KS SOUTHWARD WILL LIFR INTO IA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER NIGHT. FREEZING PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND FOG AREA EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL WARM WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING HOWEVER. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
SRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE TO IL SUN. AS IT PULLS AWAY GUSTY WINDS AND
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WARREN-WORTH-WRIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...MS NOV 14




000
FXUS63 KDMX 211142
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
542 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IL WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH WARMING
BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT ALREADY. THE SHALLOW INVERSION WILL
BE SLOW TO BREAK EVEN THOUGH H8 TEMPS WILL RISE WELL DURING THE
DAY. MOISTURE IS WORKING NORTH AS SEEN IN THE FOG PRODUCT THIS
MORNING WORKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MO.
EVEN SO...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY TO REACH IA. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE IT WILL BE SHALLOW AND DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MORE THAN
DRIZZLE FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SOUTH. MAX TEMPS FOR THE
DAY WILL COME AT 00Z WITH CONTINUED WARMING AFTER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED HAS BEEN ON FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE BEING
CLOSE TO THE ONSET OF THE EVENT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON SEVERAL FRONTS. THE FIRST PERTAINS TO PRECIP TIMING
AND DURATION WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVING SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PRECIP PLACEMENT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE EASTERN CWA. RECENT RUNS
OF THE GFS AND SREF ALSO BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE LAST FEW
RUNS AND NOW HAVE MUCH OF SOUTHERN IOWA ABOVE FREEZING FOR MIN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THE NAM REMAINS THE STOUT COLD OUTLIER OF
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THAT BEING SAID...OUR RECORD-SETTING COLD SNAP OVER THE LAST WEEK
AND A HALF HAS LED TO FROST DEPTHS OF 6+ INCHES IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH THE WARMER AIR ARRIVING IN CONJUGATION WITH THE
PRECIP...GROUND SURFACES WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO THAW AND SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN
THE 32-34 DEGREE RANGE. THE POINT AT WHICH THE WAA AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THESE COLD GROUND TEMPS IS ANOTHER
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. USED AN ARBITRARY CUTOFF OF A 33 DEGREE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE TO MARK THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE FZRA
AND RAIN. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN COORDINATION WITH ARX AND DVN...DRIVEN HEAVILY
BY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THIS ADVISORY COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS...WITH FZRA STILL
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THIS ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST BEYOND
SUNDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES STILL SHOW LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MOS GUIDANCE STILL HAS THE SOUTHERN
CWA SITES BREAKING 50 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT HELD
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION. DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
FROM TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. RECENT
GFS/EC RUNS HAVE TAKEN THE LOW ON A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD
TRACK...WHICH WOULD PULL THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FURTHER TOWARDS THE
EASTERN CWA BORDER. LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY SLIGHTLY BASED
ON THESE TRENDS. COLDER AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THE LOW ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CHANGES ANY REMAINING PRECIP TO SNOW. AFTERWARDS THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL MORE SHOTS OF SNOW THROUGH THE WEEK...FIRST AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL LOW ON MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY (ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
WINDS)...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z
ISSUED AT 538 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST OF IA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW BEHIND IT DRAWS MOISTURE NORTH. LOW CIGS FROM SRN
KS SOUTHWARD WILL LIFR INTO IA TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER NIGHT. FREEZING PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...LOW CIGS AND FOG AREA EXPECTED INTO SATURDAY. TEMPS
WILL WARM WARM WELL ABOVE FREEZING HOWEVER. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE
SRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE TO IL SUN. AS IT PULLS AWAY GUSTY WINDS AND
SNOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE TAF SITES SUNDAY NIGHT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WARREN-WORTH-WRIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...MS NOV 14





000
FXUS63 KDMX 211022
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
422 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IL WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH WARMING
BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT ALREADY. THE SHALLOW INVERSION WILL
BE SLOW TO BREAK EVEN THOUGH H8 TEMPS WILL RISE WELL DURING THE
DAY. MOISTURE IS WORKING NORTH AS SEEN IN THE FOG PRODUCT THIS
MORNING WORKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MO.
EVEN SO...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY TO REACH IA. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE IT WILL BE SHALLOW AND DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MORE THAN
DRIZZLE FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SOUTH. MAX TEMPS FOR THE
DAY WILL COME AT 00Z WITH CONTINUED WARMING AFTER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED HAS BEEN ON FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE BEING
CLOSE TO THE ONSET OF THE EVENT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON SEVERAL FRONTS. THE FIRST PERTAINS TO PRECIP TIMING
AND DURATION WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVING SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PRECIP PLACEMENT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE EASTERN CWA. RECENT RUNS
OF THE GFS AND SREF ALSO BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE LAST FEW
RUNS AND NOW HAVE MUCH OF SOUTHERN IOWA ABOVE FREEZING FOR MIN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THE NAM REMAINS THE STOUT COLD OUTLIER OF
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THAT BEING SAID...OUR RECORD-SETTING COLD SNAP OVER THE LAST WEEK
AND A HALF HAS LED TO FROST DEPTHS OF 6+ INCHES IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH THE WARMER AIR ARRIVING IN CONJUGATION WITH THE
PRECIP...GROUND SURFACES WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO THAW AND SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN
THE 32-34 DEGREE RANGE. THE POINT AT WHICH THE WAA AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THESE COLD GROUND TEMPS IS ANOTHER
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. USED AN ARBITRARY CUTOFF OF A 33 DEGREE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE TO MARK THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE FZRA
AND RAIN. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN COORDINATION WITH ARX AND DVN...DRIVEN HEAVILY
BY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THIS ADVISORY COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS...WITH FZRA STILL
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THIS ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST BEYOND
SUNDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES STILL SHOW LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MOS GUIDANCE STILL HAS THE SOUTHERN
CWA SITES BREAKING 50 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT HELD
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION. DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
FROM TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. RECENT
GFS/EC RUNS HAVE TAKEN THE LOW ON A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD
TRACK...WHICH WOULD PULL THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FURTHER TOWARDS THE
EASTERN CWA BORDER. LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY SLIGHTLY BASED
ON THESE TRENDS. COLDER AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THE LOW ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CHANGES ANY REMAINING PRECIP TO SNOW. AFTERWARDS THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL MORE SHOTS OF SNOW THROUGH THE WEEK...FIRST AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL LOW ON MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY (ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
WINDS)...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT SITES THROUGH 12Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR 18Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIOD...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME LOW VFR AT SITES BEYOND 00Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WARREN-WORTH-WRIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 211022
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
422 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IL WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH WARMING
BEGINNING TO TAKE PLACE ALOFT ALREADY. THE SHALLOW INVERSION WILL
BE SLOW TO BREAK EVEN THOUGH H8 TEMPS WILL RISE WELL DURING THE
DAY. MOISTURE IS WORKING NORTH AS SEEN IN THE FOG PRODUCT THIS
MORNING WORKING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH SOUTHERN MO.
EVEN SO...IT WILL TAKE UNTIL MIDDAY TO REACH IA. SOUNDINGS
INDICATE IT WILL BE SHALLOW AND DON`T EXPECT TO SEE MORE THAN
DRIZZLE FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE FAR SOUTH. MAX TEMPS FOR THE
DAY WILL COME AT 00Z WITH CONTINUED WARMING AFTER.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 420 AM CST FRI NOV 21 2014

MAIN FOCUS FOR THE EXTENDED HAS BEEN ON FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN
POTENTIAL FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. DESPITE BEING
CLOSE TO THE ONSET OF THE EVENT THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY ON SEVERAL FRONTS. THE FIRST PERTAINS TO PRECIP TIMING
AND DURATION WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVING SHIFTED SLIGHTLY FURTHER
EAST WITH THE BEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND PRECIP PLACEMENT...WITH
THE BEST CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN IN THE EASTERN CWA. RECENT RUNS
OF THE GFS AND SREF ALSO BEEN TRENDING WARMER OVER THE LAST FEW
RUNS AND NOW HAVE MUCH OF SOUTHERN IOWA ABOVE FREEZING FOR MIN
TEMPS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. THE NAM REMAINS THE STOUT COLD OUTLIER OF
THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.

THAT BEING SAID...OUR RECORD-SETTING COLD SNAP OVER THE LAST WEEK
AND A HALF HAS LED TO FROST DEPTHS OF 6+ INCHES IN MOST
LOCATIONS. WITH THE WARMER AIR ARRIVING IN CONJUGATION WITH THE
PRECIP...GROUND SURFACES WILL NOT HAVE TIME TO THAW AND SHOULD BE
COLD ENOUGH TO FREEZE PRECIPITATION EVEN WITH AIR TEMPERATURES IN
THE 32-34 DEGREE RANGE. THE POINT AT WHICH THE WAA AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS ENOUGH TO OVERCOME THESE COLD GROUND TEMPS IS ANOTHER
MILLION DOLLAR QUESTION. USED AN ARBITRARY CUTOFF OF A 33 DEGREE
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURE TO MARK THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE FZRA
AND RAIN. HAVE ISSUED A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FOR THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE CWA IN COORDINATION WITH ARX AND DVN...DRIVEN HEAVILY
BY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS. THIS ADVISORY COVERS THE AREA THAT IS
MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE FREEZING RAIN IMPACTS...WITH FZRA STILL
POSSIBLE OUTSIDE THIS ADVISORY.

OTHERWISE DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST BEYOND
SUNDAY. MOISTURE PROFILES STILL SHOW LOW CLOUDS HANGING AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY. MOS GUIDANCE STILL HAS THE SOUTHERN
CWA SITES BREAKING 50 DEGREES ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...BUT HELD
HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE EXPANSIVE CLOUDS
AND PRECIPITATION. DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD
FROM TEXAS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES BY EARLY MONDAY. RECENT
GFS/EC RUNS HAVE TAKEN THE LOW ON A SLIGHTLY MORE EASTWARD
TRACK...WHICH WOULD PULL THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FURTHER TOWARDS THE
EASTERN CWA BORDER. LOWERED QPF AMOUNTS ON SUNDAY SLIGHTLY BASED
ON THESE TRENDS. COLDER AIR SPILLS IN BEHIND THE LOW ON SUNDAY
NIGHT AND CHANGES ANY REMAINING PRECIP TO SNOW. AFTERWARDS THERE
MAY BE SEVERAL MORE SHOTS OF SNOW THROUGH THE WEEK...FIRST AS AN
INVERTED TROUGH WRAPS AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE DEPARTING UPPER
LEVEL LOW ON MONDAY AND EARLY TUESDAY (ACCOMPANIED BY STRONG
WINDS)...AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVES THROUGH
THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT SITES THROUGH 12Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR 18Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIOD...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME LOW VFR AT SITES BEYOND 00Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WARREN-WORTH-WRIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 AM CST
SATURDAY FOR APPANOOSE-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-LUCAS-MONROE-WAPELLO-
WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 210537
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1137 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
PAST 06Z AND INCREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND GOING ACROSS THE WEST TO HANDLE THE WEAK WAA
DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...LEANED TOWARD GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NAM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE WAA DOES
NOT DEVELOP AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES SLIDING EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD
WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF STATUS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SATURATION OCCURRING IN ONLY
THE LOW LEVELS WITH MID AND HIGH LEVELS RELATIVELY DRY. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN THE SOUTH AT THE ONSET WITH EITHER FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
DRIZZLE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OUTRUN
THE WARMING OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPANDING ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AREAS. THE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST WITH THE FREEZING LINE MOVING NORTHWARD
ALONG WITH THE TRANSITION LINE. BY MORNING SATURDAY...ALL
LOCATIONS BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING
WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION ONLY. THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL PASS BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST SEEING
PCPN POTENTIAL BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

THE MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ALL MODELS NOW INDICATE A FARTHER SOUTHEAST SOLUTION
WITH THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM. THIS WILL SHIFT FORCING AND
LIFT FARTHER EAST ALONG WITH AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. IT
STILL APPEARS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT BUT FOCUS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 ON
SUNDAY WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ADVECTION FOG STILL APPEARS LIKELY AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD
THE RELATIVELY COOLER GROUND WITH SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARING TO THE
BE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LOW VISIBILITIES. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POTENTIAL
OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE
SOUNDINGS PROXIMITY TO THE DENDRITIC LAYER. SOME SLOW MODERATION
IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IS NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT SITES THROUGH 12Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR 18Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIOD...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME LOW VFR AT SITES BEYOND 00Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 210537
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1137 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
PAST 06Z AND INCREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND GOING ACROSS THE WEST TO HANDLE THE WEAK WAA
DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...LEANED TOWARD GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NAM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE WAA DOES
NOT DEVELOP AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES SLIDING EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD
WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF STATUS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SATURATION OCCURRING IN ONLY
THE LOW LEVELS WITH MID AND HIGH LEVELS RELATIVELY DRY. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN THE SOUTH AT THE ONSET WITH EITHER FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
DRIZZLE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OUTRUN
THE WARMING OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPANDING ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AREAS. THE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST WITH THE FREEZING LINE MOVING NORTHWARD
ALONG WITH THE TRANSITION LINE. BY MORNING SATURDAY...ALL
LOCATIONS BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING
WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION ONLY. THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL PASS BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST SEEING
PCPN POTENTIAL BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

THE MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ALL MODELS NOW INDICATE A FARTHER SOUTHEAST SOLUTION
WITH THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM. THIS WILL SHIFT FORCING AND
LIFT FARTHER EAST ALONG WITH AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. IT
STILL APPEARS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT BUT FOCUS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 ON
SUNDAY WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ADVECTION FOG STILL APPEARS LIKELY AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD
THE RELATIVELY COOLER GROUND WITH SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARING TO THE
BE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LOW VISIBILITIES. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POTENTIAL
OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE
SOUNDINGS PROXIMITY TO THE DENDRITIC LAYER. SOME SLOW MODERATION
IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IS NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1134 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AT SITES THROUGH 12Z.
WINDS WILL INCREASE NEAR 18Z...WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KTS POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL DECREASE AGAIN AFTER 00Z.
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH PERIOD...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE AND BECOME LOW VFR AT SITES BEYOND 00Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 202330
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
530 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
PAST 06Z AND INCREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND GOING ACROSS THE WEST TO HANDLE THE WEAK WAA
DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...LEANED TOWARD GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NAM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE WAA DOES
NOT DEVELOP AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES SLIDING EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD
WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF STATUS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SATURATION OCCURRING IN ONLY
THE LOW LEVELS WITH MID AND HIGH LEVELS RELATIVELY DRY. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN THE SOUTH AT THE ONSET WITH EITHER FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
DRIZZLE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OUTRUN
THE WARMING OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPANDING ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AREAS. THE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST WITH THE FREEZING LINE MOVING NORTHWARD
ALONG WITH THE TRANSITION LINE. BY MORNING SATURDAY...ALL
LOCATIONS BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING
WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION ONLY. THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL PASS BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST SEEING
PCPN POTENTIAL BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

THE MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ALL MODELS NOW INDICATE A FARTHER SOUTHEAST SOLUTION
WITH THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM. THIS WILL SHIFT FORCING AND
LIFT FARTHER EAST ALONG WITH AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. IT
STILL APPEARS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT BUT FOCUS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 ON
SUNDAY WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ADVECTION FOG STILL APPEARS LIKELY AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD
THE RELATIVELY COOLER GROUND WITH SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARING TO THE
BE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LOW VISIBILITIES. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POTENTIAL
OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE
SOUNDINGS PROXIMITY TO THE DENDRITIC LAYER. SOME SLOW MODERATION
IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IS NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY 12Z AND MAY BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS DECREASING NEAR 00Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 202330
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
530 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
PAST 06Z AND INCREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND GOING ACROSS THE WEST TO HANDLE THE WEAK WAA
DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...LEANED TOWARD GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NAM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE WAA DOES
NOT DEVELOP AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES SLIDING EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD
WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF STATUS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SATURATION OCCURRING IN ONLY
THE LOW LEVELS WITH MID AND HIGH LEVELS RELATIVELY DRY. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN THE SOUTH AT THE ONSET WITH EITHER FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
DRIZZLE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OUTRUN
THE WARMING OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPANDING ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AREAS. THE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST WITH THE FREEZING LINE MOVING NORTHWARD
ALONG WITH THE TRANSITION LINE. BY MORNING SATURDAY...ALL
LOCATIONS BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING
WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION ONLY. THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL PASS BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST SEEING
PCPN POTENTIAL BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

THE MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ALL MODELS NOW INDICATE A FARTHER SOUTHEAST SOLUTION
WITH THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM. THIS WILL SHIFT FORCING AND
LIFT FARTHER EAST ALONG WITH AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. IT
STILL APPEARS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT BUT FOCUS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 ON
SUNDAY WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ADVECTION FOG STILL APPEARS LIKELY AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD
THE RELATIVELY COOLER GROUND WITH SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARING TO THE
BE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LOW VISIBILITIES. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POTENTIAL
OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE
SOUNDINGS PROXIMITY TO THE DENDRITIC LAYER. SOME SLOW MODERATION
IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IS NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...21/00Z
ISSUED AT 527 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH BY 12Z AND MAY BE GUSTY IN THE AFTERNOON
FRIDAY...WITH GUSTS DECREASING NEAR 00Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 202142
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
PAST 06Z AND INCREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND GOING ACROSS THE WEST TO HANDLE THE WEAK WAA
DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...LEANED TOWARD GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NAM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE WAA DOES
NOT DEVELOP AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES SLIDING EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD
WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF STATUS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SATURATION OCCURRING IN ONLY
THE LOW LEVELS WITH MID AND HIGH LEVELS RELATIVELY DRY. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN THE SOUTH AT THE ONSET WITH EITHER FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
DRIZZLE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OUTRUN
THE WARMING OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPANDING ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AREAS. THE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST WITH THE FREEZING LINE MOVING NORTHWARD
ALONG WITH THE TRANSITION LINE. BY MORNING SATURDAY...ALL
LOCATIONS BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING
WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION ONLY. THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL PASS BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST SEEING
PCPN POTENTIAL BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

THE MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ALL MODELS NOW INDICATE A FARTHER SOUTHEAST SOLUTION
WITH THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM. THIS WILL SHIFT FORCING AND
LIFT FARTHER EAST ALONG WITH AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. IT
STILL APPEARS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT BUT FOCUS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 ON
SUNDAY WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ADVECTION FOG STILL APPEARS LIKELY AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD
THE RELATIVELY COOLER GROUND WITH SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARING TO THE
BE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LOW VISIBILITIES. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POTENTIAL
OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE
SOUNDINGS PROXIMITY TO THE DENDRITIC LAYER. SOME SLOW MODERATION
IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IS NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY AND ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
SHIFT AND INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. CLOUD DECK REMAINS VFR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 202142
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL CONTINUE TO PRESS EAST THIS EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WINDS LOOK TO SHIFT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
PAST 06Z AND INCREASE TOWARDS SUNRISE FRIDAY MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE A NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND GOING ACROSS THE WEST TO HANDLE THE WEAK WAA
DEVELOPING. OTHERWISE...LEANED TOWARD GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE
OVER THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NAM ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WHERE THE WAA DOES
NOT DEVELOP AFTER 12Z FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 342 PM CST THU NOV 20 2014

WARM ADVECTION WILL BE UNDERWAY ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES SLIDING EAST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNING NORTHWARD
WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF STATUS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH DURING THE
DAY. SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SATURATION OCCURRING IN ONLY
THE LOW LEVELS WITH MID AND HIGH LEVELS RELATIVELY DRY. WILL BEGIN
TO SEE SOME PRECIPITATION INTO THE FAR SOUTH BY LATE AFTERNOON
THEN SPREADING NORTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
FREEZING IN THE SOUTH AT THE ONSET WITH EITHER FREEZING DRIZZLE OR
DRIZZLE EXPECTED. HOWEVER...THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OUTRUN
THE WARMING OVERNIGHT WITH PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE EXPANDING ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA EXCEPT THE NORTHWEST AREAS. THE STRONG WARM
ADVECTION WILL PERSIST WITH THE FREEZING LINE MOVING NORTHWARD
ALONG WITH THE TRANSITION LINE. BY MORNING SATURDAY...ALL
LOCATIONS BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOVE FREEZING
WITH LIQUID PRECIPITATION ONLY. THIS FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION
WILL PASS BY SATURDAY MORNING WITH ONLY THE FAR SOUTHEAST SEEING
PCPN POTENTIAL BY MIDDAY SATURDAY.

THE MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. ALL MODELS NOW INDICATE A FARTHER SOUTHEAST SOLUTION
WITH THIS NEGATIVELY TILTED SYSTEM. THIS WILL SHIFT FORCING AND
LIFT FARTHER EAST ALONG WITH AXIS OF HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. IT
STILL APPEARS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL OVERSPREAD THE
FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT BUT FOCUS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35 ON
SUNDAY WITH HEAVIEST RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN NORTHERN ILLINOIS.
ADVECTION FOG STILL APPEARS LIKELY AS HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD
THE RELATIVELY COOLER GROUND WITH SATURDAY NIGHT APPEARING TO THE
BE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING LOW VISIBILITIES. FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH STRONG COLD ADVECTION INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY. ONCE AGAIN...THE MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON THE POTENTIAL
OF SNOW ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SYSTEM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
ALTHOUGH SOME SNOW SHOWER ACTIVITY STILL SEEMS LIKELY GIVEN THE
SOUNDINGS PROXIMITY TO THE DENDRITIC LAYER. SOME SLOW MODERATION
IS ANTICIPATED INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK ALTHOUGH SOME
SIGNIFICANT DIVERGENCE IS NOTED BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO BY
MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY AND ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
SHIFT AND INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. CLOUD DECK REMAINS VFR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 201752
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1152 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY. THE BAND OF CLOUDS
ON THE BAROCLINIC RIBBON EXTENDING FROM NERN MT THROUGH SRN IA
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THIN AS THE ARMS CONTINUES TO DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY UNDER THE SHALLOW
INVERSION AND WEAKENING GRADIENT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
THE MID MORNING WITH RECOVER NOT ALL THAT MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
PRESENT READINGS ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL PASS BY
NIGHTFALL...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING DOWN THE NWLY
WINDS FROM ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY WITH A RAPID DIMINISH IN WINDS
TOWARD 00Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT WITH WAA
COMMENCING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NUDGED UP LOWS 1 TO 2 DEGREES
OVER THE NORTH AND STABILIZED HOURLY TEMP TRENDS AFTER 06Z WITH
THE IDEA THAT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NEGATE ANY FURTHER COOLING
OF THE -MODIFIED ARMS. STRONG WAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS FILLING IN DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS STILL
EXPECTED FROM 00Z TO 12Z SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
SATURATED BELOW 800MB WITH A LARGE +5 TO +7 C INVERSION UP THROUGH
THIS LAYER. THE SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE AND BROAD/WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LENDS CREDENCE TO A MORE DRIZZLE TYPE EVENT.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SURFACE TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
EARLIER RUNS AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE MODELED FREEZING RAIN
ENDING SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...WITH GROUND
TEMPS STILL QUITE COLD...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FREEZING PRECIP MAY
OCCUR EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED IN UPCOMING SHIFTS.

NAM/SREF SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA MAINTAIN A SATURATED PROFILE
BELOW 900MB THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
WORDING AND RAISED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS THE WARM
MOIST AIR IS ADVOCATED OVER THE COOLER GROUND. A SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD LATE ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS FROM
1000MB TO 980 MB BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY AS IT TRACKS UP
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP IN IOWA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES...BUT MAINTAINED POPS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NEAR
SURFACE SATURATED LAYER AND SEVERAL REGIONS OF 925MB THETA-E
ADVECTION THAT LIFT THROUGH DURING THIS  AND COULD STILL GENERATE
SOME PRECIP.

THE EC TAKES THE SURFACE CYCLONE ON A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK
COMPARED TO THE GFS ON SUNDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE MODERATE TO
EVEN SHORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF IOWA ON SUNDAY WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 TO 1
INCH. SUBFREEZING AIR WILL SPILL INTO IOWA LATE ON SUNDAY AND
CHANGE ANY REMAINING PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE LIFT NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL INTERACT WITH A SECOND CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF A COMPLEX DOUBLE BARREL LOW THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO TUESDAY. UNDERSTANDABLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION AND STRUCTURE OF THIS LOW AND TIMING THE
ARRIVAL OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WILL GENERATE STRONG
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS WARMER AIR RESURGES NORTHWARD FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY AND ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
SHIFT AND INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. CLOUD DECK REMAINS VFR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 201752
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1152 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY. THE BAND OF CLOUDS
ON THE BAROCLINIC RIBBON EXTENDING FROM NERN MT THROUGH SRN IA
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THIN AS THE ARMS CONTINUES TO DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY UNDER THE SHALLOW
INVERSION AND WEAKENING GRADIENT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
THE MID MORNING WITH RECOVER NOT ALL THAT MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
PRESENT READINGS ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL PASS BY
NIGHTFALL...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING DOWN THE NWLY
WINDS FROM ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY WITH A RAPID DIMINISH IN WINDS
TOWARD 00Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT WITH WAA
COMMENCING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NUDGED UP LOWS 1 TO 2 DEGREES
OVER THE NORTH AND STABILIZED HOURLY TEMP TRENDS AFTER 06Z WITH
THE IDEA THAT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NEGATE ANY FURTHER COOLING
OF THE -MODIFIED ARMS. STRONG WAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS FILLING IN DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS STILL
EXPECTED FROM 00Z TO 12Z SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
SATURATED BELOW 800MB WITH A LARGE +5 TO +7 C INVERSION UP THROUGH
THIS LAYER. THE SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE AND BROAD/WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LENDS CREDENCE TO A MORE DRIZZLE TYPE EVENT.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SURFACE TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
EARLIER RUNS AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE MODELED FREEZING RAIN
ENDING SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...WITH GROUND
TEMPS STILL QUITE COLD...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FREEZING PRECIP MAY
OCCUR EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED IN UPCOMING SHIFTS.

NAM/SREF SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA MAINTAIN A SATURATED PROFILE
BELOW 900MB THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
WORDING AND RAISED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS THE WARM
MOIST AIR IS ADVOCATED OVER THE COOLER GROUND. A SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD LATE ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS FROM
1000MB TO 980 MB BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY AS IT TRACKS UP
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP IN IOWA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES...BUT MAINTAINED POPS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NEAR
SURFACE SATURATED LAYER AND SEVERAL REGIONS OF 925MB THETA-E
ADVECTION THAT LIFT THROUGH DURING THIS  AND COULD STILL GENERATE
SOME PRECIP.

THE EC TAKES THE SURFACE CYCLONE ON A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK
COMPARED TO THE GFS ON SUNDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE MODERATE TO
EVEN SHORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF IOWA ON SUNDAY WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 TO 1
INCH. SUBFREEZING AIR WILL SPILL INTO IOWA LATE ON SUNDAY AND
CHANGE ANY REMAINING PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE LIFT NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL INTERACT WITH A SECOND CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF A COMPLEX DOUBLE BARREL LOW THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO TUESDAY. UNDERSTANDABLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION AND STRUCTURE OF THIS LOW AND TIMING THE
ARRIVAL OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WILL GENERATE STRONG
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS WARMER AIR RESURGES NORTHWARD FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...20/18Z
ISSUED AT 1148 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION ACROSS THE STATE
TODAY AND ALLOW FOR VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS
SHIFT AND INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING OUT OF THE SOUTH AHEAD OF NEXT
SYSTEM. CLOUD DECK REMAINS VFR THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 201142
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
542 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY. THE BAND OF CLOUDS
ON THE BAROCLINIC RIBBON EXTENDING FROM NERN MT THROUGH SRN IA
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THIN AS THE ARMS CONTINUES TO DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY UNDER THE SHALLOW
INVERSION AND WEAKENING GRADIENT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
THE MID MORNING WITH RECOVER NOT ALL THAT MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
PRESENT READINGS ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL PASS BY
NIGHTFALL...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING DOWN THE NWLY
WINDS FROM ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY WITH A RAPID DIMINISH IN WINDS
TOWARD 00Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT WITH WAA
COMMENCING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NUDGED UP LOWS 1 TO 2 DEGREES
OVER THE NORTH AND STABILIZED HOURLY TEMP TRENDS AFTER 06Z WITH
THE IDEA THAT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NEGATE ANY FURTHER COOLING
OF THE -MODIFIED ARMS. STRONG WAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS FILLING IN DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS STILL
EXPECTED FROM 00Z TO 12Z SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
SATURATED BELOW 800MB WITH A LARGE +5 TO +7 C INVERSION UP THROUGH
THIS LAYER. THE SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE AND BROAD/WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LENDS CREDENCE TO A MORE DRIZZLE TYPE EVENT.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SURFACE TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
EARLIER RUNS AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE MODELED FREEZING RAIN
ENDING SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...WITH GROUND
TEMPS STILL QUITE COLD...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FREEZING PRECIP MAY
OCCUR EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED IN UPCOMING SHIFTS.

NAM/SREF SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA MAINTAIN A SATURATED PROFILE
BELOW 900MB THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
WORDING AND RAISED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS THE WARM
MOIST AIR IS ADVOCATED OVER THE COOLER GROUND. A SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD LATE ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS FROM
1000MB TO 980 MB BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY AS IT TRACKS UP
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP IN IOWA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES...BUT MAINTAINED POPS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NEAR
SURFACE SATURATED LAYER AND SEVERAL REGIONS OF 925MB THETA-E
ADVECTION THAT LIFT THROUGH DURING THIS  AND COULD STILL GENERATE
SOME PRECIP.

THE EC TAKES THE SURFACE CYCLONE ON A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK
COMPARED TO THE GFS ON SUNDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE MODERATE TO
EVEN SHORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF IOWA ON SUNDAY WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 TO 1
INCH. SUBFREEZING AIR WILL SPILL INTO IOWA LATE ON SUNDAY AND
CHANGE ANY REMAINING PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE LIFT NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL INTERACT WITH A SECOND CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF A COMPLEX DOUBLE BARREL LOW THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO TUESDAY. UNDERSTANDABLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION AND STRUCTURE OF THIS LOW AND TIMING THE
ARRIVAL OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WILL GENERATE STRONG
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS WARMER AIR RESURGES NORTHWARD FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREA OF CLOUDS AROUND
3000 FEET OVER SRN IA WILL DISSIPATE WITH TIME WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DETERIORATING AREA EXPECTED FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR AND SOME LIFR BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION BECOMING RAIN
SATURDAY. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND
SNOW MOVING INTO HE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...MS NOV 14




000
FXUS63 KDMX 201142
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
542 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY. THE BAND OF CLOUDS
ON THE BAROCLINIC RIBBON EXTENDING FROM NERN MT THROUGH SRN IA
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THIN AS THE ARMS CONTINUES TO DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY UNDER THE SHALLOW
INVERSION AND WEAKENING GRADIENT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
THE MID MORNING WITH RECOVER NOT ALL THAT MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
PRESENT READINGS ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL PASS BY
NIGHTFALL...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING DOWN THE NWLY
WINDS FROM ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY WITH A RAPID DIMINISH IN WINDS
TOWARD 00Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT WITH WAA
COMMENCING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NUDGED UP LOWS 1 TO 2 DEGREES
OVER THE NORTH AND STABILIZED HOURLY TEMP TRENDS AFTER 06Z WITH
THE IDEA THAT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NEGATE ANY FURTHER COOLING
OF THE -MODIFIED ARMS. STRONG WAA CONTINUES THROUGH THE DAY ON
FRIDAY WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS FILLING IN DURING THE DAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS STILL
EXPECTED FROM 00Z TO 12Z SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
SATURATED BELOW 800MB WITH A LARGE +5 TO +7 C INVERSION UP THROUGH
THIS LAYER. THE SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE AND BROAD/WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LENDS CREDENCE TO A MORE DRIZZLE TYPE EVENT.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SURFACE TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
EARLIER RUNS AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE MODELED FREEZING RAIN
ENDING SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...WITH GROUND
TEMPS STILL QUITE COLD...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FREEZING PRECIP MAY
OCCUR EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED IN UPCOMING SHIFTS.

NAM/SREF SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA MAINTAIN A SATURATED PROFILE
BELOW 900MB THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
WORDING AND RAISED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS THE WARM
MOIST AIR IS ADVOCATED OVER THE COOLER GROUND. A SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD LATE ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS FROM
1000MB TO 980 MB BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY AS IT TRACKS UP
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP IN IOWA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES...BUT MAINTAINED POPS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NEAR
SURFACE SATURATED LAYER AND SEVERAL REGIONS OF 925MB THETA-E
ADVECTION THAT LIFT THROUGH DURING THIS  AND COULD STILL GENERATE
SOME PRECIP.

THE EC TAKES THE SURFACE CYCLONE ON A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK
COMPARED TO THE GFS ON SUNDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE MODERATE TO
EVEN SHORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF IOWA ON SUNDAY WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 TO 1
INCH. SUBFREEZING AIR WILL SPILL INTO IOWA LATE ON SUNDAY AND
CHANGE ANY REMAINING PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE LIFT NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL INTERACT WITH A SECOND CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF A COMPLEX DOUBLE BARREL LOW THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO TUESDAY. UNDERSTANDABLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION AND STRUCTURE OF THIS LOW AND TIMING THE
ARRIVAL OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WILL GENERATE STRONG
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS WARMER AIR RESURGES NORTHWARD FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...20/12Z
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD THROUGH TONIGHT. THE AREA OF CLOUDS AROUND
3000 FEET OVER SRN IA WILL DISSIPATE WITH TIME WEST TO NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND SOUTHEAST
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...DETERIORATING AREA EXPECTED FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO
THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO IFR AND SOME LIFR BY LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT IN MIXED PRECIPITATION. PRECIPITATION BECOMING RAIN
SATURDAY. IMPROVEMENT WILL BE SLOW ON SUNDAY WITH DRIER AIR AND
SNOW MOVING INTO HE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...MS NOV 14





000
FXUS63 KDMX 201002
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
402 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY. THE BAND OF CLOUDS
ON THE BAROCLINIC RIBBON EXTENDING FROM NERN MT THROUGH SRN IA
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THIN AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY UNDER THE SHALLOW
INVERSION AND WEAKENING GRADIENT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
THE MID MORNING WITH RECOVER NOT ALL THAT MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
PRESENT READINGS ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL PASS BY
NIGHTFALL...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING DOWN THE NWLY
WINDS FROM ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY WITH A RAPID DIMINISH IN WINDS
TOWARD 00Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT WITH WAA
COMMENCING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NUDGED UP LOWS 1 TO 2 DEGREES
OVER THE NORTH AND STABILIZED HOURLY TEMP TRENDS AFTER 06Z WITH
THE IDEA THAT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NEGATE ANY FURTHER COOLING
OF THE SNOWPACK-MODIFIED AIRMASS. STRONG WAA CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS FILLING IN DURING THE
DAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS STILL
EXPECTED FROM 00Z TO 12Z SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
SATURATED BELOW 800MB WITH A LARGE +5 TO +7 C INVERSION UP THROUGH
THIS LAYER. THE SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE AND BROAD/WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LENDS CREDENCE TO A MORE DRIZZLE TYPE EVENT.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SURFACE TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
EARLIER RUNS AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE MODELED FREEZING RAIN
ENDING SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...WITH GROUND
TEMPS STILL QUITE COLD...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FREEZING PRECIP MAY
OCCUR EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED IN UPCOMING SHIFTS.

NAM/SREF SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA MAINTAIN A SATURATED PROFILE
BELOW 900MB THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
WORDING AND RAISED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS THE WARM
MOIST AIR IS ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER GROUND. A SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD LATE ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS FROM
1000MB TO 980 MB BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY AS IT TRACKS UP
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP IN IOWA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES...BUT MAINTAINED POPS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NEAR
SURFACE SATURATED LAYER AND SEVERAL REGIONS OF 925MB THETA-E
ADVECTION THAT LIFT THROUGH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND COULD STILL
GENERATE SOME PRECIP.

THE EC TAKES THE SURFACE CYCLONE ON A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK
COMPARED TO THE GFS ON SUNDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE MODERATE TO
EVEN SHORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF IOWA ON SUNDAY WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 TO 1
INCH. SUBFREEZING AIR WILL SPILL INTO IOWA LATE ON SUNDAY AND
CHANGE ANY REMAINING PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE LIFT NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL INTERACT WITH A SECOND CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF A COMPLEX DOUBLE BARREL LOW THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO TUESDAY. UNDERSTANDABLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION AND STRUCTURE OF THIS LOW AND TIMING THE
ARRIVAL OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WILL GENERATE STRONG
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS WARMER AIR RESURGES NORTHWARD FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...20/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO THIN ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. KDSM MAY HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE THE STRATUS DEPARTS. OTHERWISE
WIDESPREAD VFR IS FORECAST. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 201002
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
402 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER TODAY. THE BAND OF CLOUDS
ON THE BAROCLINIC RIBBON EXTENDING FROM NERN MT THROUGH SRN IA
WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY THIN AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO RISE TODAY UNDER THE SHALLOW
INVERSION AND WEAKENING GRADIENT. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO FALL INTO
THE MID MORNING WITH RECOVER NOT ALL THAT MUCH HIGHER THAN THE
PRESENT READINGS ALTHOUGH HIGH PRESSURE AXIS WILL PASS BY
NIGHTFALL...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH MIXING TO BRING DOWN THE NWLY
WINDS FROM ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY WITH A RAPID DIMINISH IN WINDS
TOWARD 00Z.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 AM CST THU NOV 20 2014

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA LATE TONIGHT WITH WAA
COMMENCING EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NUDGED UP LOWS 1 TO 2 DEGREES
OVER THE NORTH AND STABILIZED HOURLY TEMP TRENDS AFTER 06Z WITH
THE IDEA THAT THE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL NEGATE ANY FURTHER COOLING
OF THE SNOWPACK-MODIFIED AIRMASS. STRONG WAA CONTINUES THROUGH
THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH LOW STRATUS CLOUDS FILLING IN DURING THE
DAY.

THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARDS TO THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION ON FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS STILL
EXPECTED FROM 00Z TO 12Z SATURDAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS REMAIN
SATURATED BELOW 800MB WITH A LARGE +5 TO +7 C INVERSION UP THROUGH
THIS LAYER. THE SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE AND BROAD/WEAK
THERMODYNAMIC FORCING LENDS CREDENCE TO A MORE DRIZZLE TYPE EVENT.
LATEST GUIDANCE HAS SURFACE TEMPS WARMING SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN
EARLIER RUNS AND THIS HAS RESULTED IN THE MODELED FREEZING RAIN
ENDING SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. HOWEVER...WITH GROUND
TEMPS STILL QUITE COLD...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT FREEZING PRECIP MAY
OCCUR EVEN WITH AIR TEMPS A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. THIS
POTENTIAL WILL NEED TO BE EVALUATED IN UPCOMING SHIFTS.

NAM/SREF SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE CWA MAINTAIN A SATURATED PROFILE
BELOW 900MB THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SATURDAY. INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG
WORDING AND RAISED CLOUD COVER FOR THIS TIME FRAME AS THE WARM
MOIST AIR IS ADVECTED OVER THE COOLER GROUND. A SURFACE CYCLONE
WILL DEVELOP OVER TEXAS ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS A SHARP UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE DIVES ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES AND EJECTS
NORTHEASTWARD LATE ON SATURDAY. THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS FROM
1000MB TO 980 MB BETWEEN 00Z SUN AND 00Z MONDAY AS IT TRACKS UP
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE
PRECIP IN IOWA ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE THIS
SYSTEM ARRIVES...BUT MAINTAINED POPS DUE TO THE PERSISTENT NEAR
SURFACE SATURATED LAYER AND SEVERAL REGIONS OF 925MB THETA-E
ADVECTION THAT LIFT THROUGH DURING THIS TIMEFRAME AND COULD STILL
GENERATE SOME PRECIP.

THE EC TAKES THE SURFACE CYCLONE ON A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD TRACK
COMPARED TO THE GFS ON SUNDAY...BUT IN EITHER CASE MODERATE TO
EVEN SHORT PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
EASTERN TWO THIRDS OF IOWA ON SUNDAY WITH PWATS AROUND 0.75 TO 1
INCH. SUBFREEZING AIR WILL SPILL INTO IOWA LATE ON SUNDAY AND
CHANGE ANY REMAINING PRECIP BACK OVER TO SNOW. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
WAVE LIFT NORTHEASTWARD IT WILL INTERACT WITH A SECOND CLOSED LOW
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA. THIS WILL LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF A COMPLEX DOUBLE BARREL LOW THAT WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS INTO TUESDAY. UNDERSTANDABLY...MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON THE EVOLUTION AND STRUCTURE OF THIS LOW AND TIMING THE
ARRIVAL OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE INVERTED TROUGH WRAPPING
AROUND THE LOW IS SOMEWHAT DIFFICULT. A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE LOW WILL GENERATE STRONG
WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SHOT OF COLD AIR
WILL NOT LAST LONG AS WARMER AIR RESURGES NORTHWARD FOR THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AHEAD OF A CLIPPER SYSTEM DIVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...20/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO THIN ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. KDSM MAY HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE THE STRATUS DEPARTS. OTHERWISE
WIDESPREAD VFR IS FORECAST. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY EVENING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 200539
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1139 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHED ACROSS CWA IN THE EARLY MORNING....HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND BOUNDARY
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL KEEP PERSISTENT FORCING ACROSS CWA. MOISTURE IS
CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS...BUT GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES PUSHING
SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. FEEL MODELS ARE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH TIMING OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN...AND THEREFORE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AND FLURRIES THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
00Z...HELPING TO LIMIT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH...AND
HAVE ONLY KEPT BLOWING SNOW MENTION IN BEGINNING OF PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THE CALMEST DAY OF THE LONGER TERM. WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION
BEGIN IMMEDIATELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
RAPIDLY IN INCREASING STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW WITH STRATUS
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL IOWA ON FRIDAY. WITH SATURATION OCCURRING IN
THE LOW LEVELS...THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY
AND DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE INTRODUCTION.
THEREFORE...AS PRECIPITATION THREAT INCREASES ON FRIDAY
EVENING...WILL INITIALLY SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE STATE. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TRANSITION TO
DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL AREA BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK. THE DEEPEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH
THE CONTINUED THREAT OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH THE EURO REMAINING
THE FARTHEST WEST AS THE NORTHERN WAVE COMBINES WITH THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. IT HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME.
FORTUNATELY...WARM AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH RAIN EXPECTED...WITH HEAVIEST ACROSS THE EAST
NEAR THE TRACK OF UPPER LOW. ALSO ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD THE RELATIVELY COOL GROUND FROM THE
RECENT COLD AND SNOW. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES. BOTH MODELS INDICATED
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WAVE DROPS
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE EASTERN TROF WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...20/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

STRATUS CONTINUES TO THIN ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. KDSM MAY HAVE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS BEFORE THE STRATUS DEPARTS. OTHERWISE
WIDESPREAD VFR IS FORECAST. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY THEN GRADUALLY BECOMING SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY EVENING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 192341
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
541 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHED ACROSS CWA IN THE EARLY MORNING....HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND BOUNDARY
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL KEEP PERSISTENT FORCING ACROSS CWA. MOISTURE IS
CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS...BUT GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES PUSHING
SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. FEEL MODELS ARE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH TIMING OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN...AND THEREFORE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AND FLURRIES THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
00Z...HELPING TO LIMIT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH...AND
HAVE ONLY KEPT BLOWING SNOW MENTION IN BEGINNING OF PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THE CALMEST DAY OF THE LONGER TERM. WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION
BEGIN IMMEDIATELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
RAPIDLY IN INCREASING STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW WITH STRATUS
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL IOWA ON FRIDAY. WITH SATURATION OCCURRING IN
THE LOW LEVELS...THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY
AND DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE INTRODUCTION.
THEREFORE...AS PRECIPITATION THREAT INCREASES ON FRIDAY
EVENING...WILL INITIALLY SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE STATE. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TRANSITION TO
DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL AREA BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK. THE DEEPEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH
THE CONTINUED THREAT OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH THE EURO REMAINING
THE FARTHEST WEST AS THE NORTHERN WAVE COMBINES WITH THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. IT HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME.
FORTUNATELY...WARM AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH RAIN EXPECTED...WITH HEAVIEST ACROSS THE EAST
NEAR THE TRACK OF UPPER LOW. ALSO ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD THE RELATIVELY COOL GROUND FROM THE
RECENT COLD AND SNOW. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES. BOTH MODELS INDICATED
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WAVE DROPS
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE EASTERN TROF WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

STRATUS AND FLURRIES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS IOWA. MUCH OF THE STRATUS IS VFR AND KEPT CONDITIONS VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MVFR THOUGH IT
WOULD BE BRIEF. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 192341
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
541 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHED ACROSS CWA IN THE EARLY MORNING....HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND BOUNDARY
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL KEEP PERSISTENT FORCING ACROSS CWA. MOISTURE IS
CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS...BUT GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES PUSHING
SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. FEEL MODELS ARE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH TIMING OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN...AND THEREFORE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AND FLURRIES THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
00Z...HELPING TO LIMIT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH...AND
HAVE ONLY KEPT BLOWING SNOW MENTION IN BEGINNING OF PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THE CALMEST DAY OF THE LONGER TERM. WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION
BEGIN IMMEDIATELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
RAPIDLY IN INCREASING STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW WITH STRATUS
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL IOWA ON FRIDAY. WITH SATURATION OCCURRING IN
THE LOW LEVELS...THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY
AND DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE INTRODUCTION.
THEREFORE...AS PRECIPITATION THREAT INCREASES ON FRIDAY
EVENING...WILL INITIALLY SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE STATE. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TRANSITION TO
DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL AREA BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK. THE DEEPEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH
THE CONTINUED THREAT OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH THE EURO REMAINING
THE FARTHEST WEST AS THE NORTHERN WAVE COMBINES WITH THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. IT HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME.
FORTUNATELY...WARM AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH RAIN EXPECTED...WITH HEAVIEST ACROSS THE EAST
NEAR THE TRACK OF UPPER LOW. ALSO ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD THE RELATIVELY COOL GROUND FROM THE
RECENT COLD AND SNOW. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES. BOTH MODELS INDICATED
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WAVE DROPS
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE EASTERN TROF WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z
ISSUED AT 541 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

STRATUS AND FLURRIES BEGINNING TO DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS IOWA. MUCH OF THE STRATUS IS VFR AND KEPT CONDITIONS VFR
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED MVFR THOUGH IT
WOULD BE BRIEF. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN
BREEZY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 192126
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
326 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHED ACROSS CWA IN THE EARLY MORNING....HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND BOUNDARY
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL KEEP PERSISTENT FORCING ACROSS CWA. MOISTURE IS
CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS...BUT GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES PUSHING
SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. FEEL MODELS ARE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH TIMING OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN...AND THEREFORE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AND FLURRIES THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
00Z...HELPING TO LIMIT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH...AND
HAVE ONLY KEPT BLOWING SNOW MENTION IN BEGINNING OF PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THE CALMEST DAY OF THE LONGER TERM. WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION
BEGIN IMMEDIATELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
RAPIDLY IN INCREASING STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW WITH STRATUS
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL IOWA ON FRIDAY. WITH SATURATION OCCURRING IN
THE LOW LEVELS...THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY
AND DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE INTRODUCTION.
THEREFORE...AS PRECIPITATION THREAT INCREASES ON FRIDAY
EVENING...WILL INITIALLY SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE STATE. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACOSS
CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TRANSITION TO
DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL AREA BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK. THE DEEPEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH
THE CONTINUED THREAT OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH THE EURO REMAINING
THE FARTHEST WEST AS THE NORTHERN WAVE COMBINES WITH THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. IT HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME.
FORTUNATELY...WARM AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH RAIN EXPECTED...WITH HEAVIEST ACROSS THE EAST
NEAR THE TRACK OF UPPER LOW. ALSO ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD THE RELATIVELY COOL GROUND FROM THE
RECENT COLD AND SNOW. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES. BOTH MODELS INDICATED
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WAVE DROPS
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE EASTERN TROF WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...19/18Z
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

LOW VFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SITES THROUGH MUCH OF
PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT SITES EARLY
IN PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY. WILL SEE SCATTERED -SN
WHICH MAY AFFECT SITES. FALLING SN WITH STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS THROUGH 00Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR LATE IN PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 192126
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
326 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH PUSHED ACROSS CWA IN THE EARLY MORNING....HAS
PUSHED WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON. BEHIND BOUNDARY
LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL KEEP PERSISTENT FORCING ACROSS CWA. MOISTURE IS
CONFINED TO LOW LEVELS...BUT GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES PUSHING
SOUTH...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS WITHIN DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE AND WILL
BE SUFFICIENT FOR FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHING INTO THE WEST OVERNIGHT. FEEL MODELS ARE TOO
AGGRESSIVE WITH TIMING OF HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING IN...AND THEREFORE
WILL KEEP CLOUD COVER AND FLURRIES THROUGH 06Z. GIVEN INCREASED
CLOUD COVER...HAVE BUMPED TEMPERATURES UP A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY
IN THE EAST AND CENTRAL. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH AFTER
00Z...HELPING TO LIMIT BLOWING SNOW POTENTIAL IN THE NORTH...AND
HAVE ONLY KEPT BLOWING SNOW MENTION IN BEGINNING OF PERIOD.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 234 PM CST WED NOV 19 2014

SURFACE RIDGE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
LIKELY THE CALMEST DAY OF THE LONGER TERM. WILL SEE WARM ADVECTION
BEGIN IMMEDIATELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD
RAPIDLY IN INCREASING STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTH FLOW WITH STRATUS
OVERSPREADING CENTRAL IOWA ON FRIDAY. WITH SATURATION OCCURRING IN
THE LOW LEVELS...THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY
AND DONT ANTICIPATE MUCH IN THE WAY OF ICE INTRODUCTION.
THEREFORE...AS PRECIPITATION THREAT INCREASES ON FRIDAY
EVENING...WILL INITIALLY SEE FREEZING DRIZZLE SPREADING NORTHWARD
INTO THE STATE. HOWEVER...WARM ADVECTION WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ACOSS
CENTRAL IOWA DURING THE NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE A TRANSITION TO
DRIZZLE/VERY LIGHT RAIN FOR ALL AREA BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST BY
DAYBREAK. THE DEEPEST LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY WITH
THE CONTINUED THREAT OF DRIZZLE/LIGHT RAIN.

THE MORE SIGNIFICANT WAVE ARRIVES SUNDAY WITH THE EURO REMAINING
THE FARTHEST WEST AS THE NORTHERN WAVE COMBINES WITH THE SOUTHERN
SYSTEM. IT HAS REMAINED QUITE CONSISTENT AND CANNOT ARGUE WITH THE
HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THIS TIME.
FORTUNATELY...WARM AIR WILL STILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THIS SYSTEM WITH RAIN EXPECTED...WITH HEAVIEST ACROSS THE EAST
NEAR THE TRACK OF UPPER LOW. ALSO ANTICIPATE FOG DEVELOPMENT AS
HIGHER DEWPOINTS OVERSPREAD THE RELATIVELY COOL GROUND FROM THE
RECENT COLD AND SNOW. STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM PASSES. BOTH MODELS INDICATED
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER WAVE DROPS
DOWN THE BACKSIDE OF THE LARGE EASTERN TROF WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING WELL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...19/18Z
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

LOW VFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SITES THROUGH MUCH OF
PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT SITES EARLY
IN PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY. WILL SEE SCATTERED -SN
WHICH MAY AFFECT SITES. FALLING SN WITH STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS THROUGH 00Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR LATE IN PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 191737
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1137 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...WIND AND FLURRIES. FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH BRIEF SHOT OF WARM AIR THIS EARLY MORNING
TRANSITIONS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
FOLLOWING BOUNDARY AND SHOULD BE PRESENT MUCH OF THE DAY...GIVEN
UPSTREAM FETCH THAT EXTENDS WELL BACK TO US CANADIAN BORDER AT
PRESENT. WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT... BUFR
SOUNDINGS REGION WIDE SHOW THAT SATURATED LAYER CONTINUES TO
INTERSECT THE DENDRITIC ZONE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA WITH SCT FLURRIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD GIVEN THAT THERE WILL EITHER BE PERIODS OR
INTERMITTENT FLURRIES TODAY. SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN TEMPS TODAY
THOUGH IN SOME CASES OUR HIGHS MAY BE REACHED BETWEEN 6 AM AND
ABOUT 10 AM AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING TODAY EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND
30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK
DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CANADIAN
ANCHOR LOW RETROGRADING NORTHWARD AND WEST COAST RIDGE FLATTENING
AND MIGRATING EAST. IOWA AND THE REST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CANADA WILL WORK ACROSS IOWA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD. CONTINUED GOING
AT OR BELOW MOST GUIDANCE ON LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN IOWA GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOW PACK.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
OVER IOWA DURING THIS TIME. THIS WAA IS BEING DRIVEN IN PART BY AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. THIS THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
290K SURFACE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A STRENGTHENING 100KT JET AT 300 MB
SUPPLING KINEMATIC FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
BUT OVERALL FORCING REMAINS BROAD AND WEAK AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT GIVEN THE RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE BELOW 850MB.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT PERTAINS TO PRECIP TYPE ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STOUT 900-700 MB
WARM NOSE ACROSS THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS IN THIS INVERSION PUSHING
+3 TO +5 C BY 06Z SATURDAY. SATURATION IS ONLY ACHIEVED UP TO
850MB (0 C TO -1 C) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A LARGE SLAB OF
DRY AIR FURTHER ALOFT. COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S....THE STAGE IS SET FOR A FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN EVENT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN A LONGER PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FREEZING PRECIP CONDITIONS.
THANKFULLY...ANY GLAZING OF ICE WILL QUICKLY MELT BY MID MORNING
AS CONTINUED WAA PUSHES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY (AND SUNDAY) LOOK TO REACH THE MID 40S WITH THE
BEST POP CHANCES IN THE EAST TIED INTO THE WARM ADVECTION WING OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN
FROM 997 MB TO 979 MB BETWEEN 06Z SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY AS IT
LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS LOW WILL FOLLOW A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY
SNOW IN CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA...BUT THANKFULLY THE THERMAL PROFILES
DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND IOWA WILL SEE
JUST RAIN. BEYOND SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH TIED INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA. IN ANY CASE...COLDER AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW LATE ON SUNDAY AND CHANGE ANY
REMAINING PRECIP INTO SNOW. MULTIPLE INVERTED TROUGHS MAY WRAP
AROUND THE NOW COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND
BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF SNOW THROUGH THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...19/18Z
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

LOW VFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SITES THROUGH MUCH OF
PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT SITES EARLY
IN PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY. WILL SEE SCATTERED -SN
WHICH MAY AFFECT SITES. FALLING SN WITH STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS THROUGH 00Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR LATE IN PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 191737
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1137 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...WIND AND FLURRIES. FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH BRIEF SHOT OF WARM AIR THIS EARLY MORNING
TRANSITIONS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
FOLLOWING BOUNDARY AND SHOULD BE PRESENT MUCH OF THE DAY...GIVEN
UPSTREAM FETCH THAT EXTENDS WELL BACK TO US CANADIAN BORDER AT
PRESENT. WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT... BUFR
SOUNDINGS REGION WIDE SHOW THAT SATURATED LAYER CONTINUES TO
INTERSECT THE DENDRITIC ZONE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA WITH SCT FLURRIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD GIVEN THAT THERE WILL EITHER BE PERIODS OR
INTERMITTENT FLURRIES TODAY. SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN TEMPS TODAY
THOUGH IN SOME CASES OUR HIGHS MAY BE REACHED BETWEEN 6 AM AND
ABOUT 10 AM AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING TODAY EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND
30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK
DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CANADIAN
ANCHOR LOW RETROGRADING NORTHWARD AND WEST COAST RIDGE FLATTENING
AND MIGRATING EAST. IOWA AND THE REST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CANADA WILL WORK ACROSS IOWA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD. CONTINUED GOING
AT OR BELOW MOST GUIDANCE ON LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN IOWA GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOW PACK.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
OVER IOWA DURING THIS TIME. THIS WAA IS BEING DRIVEN IN PART BY AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. THIS THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
290K SURFACE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A STRENGTHENING 100KT JET AT 300 MB
SUPPLING KINEMATIC FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
BUT OVERALL FORCING REMAINS BROAD AND WEAK AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT GIVEN THE RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE BELOW 850MB.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT PERTAINS TO PRECIP TYPE ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STOUT 900-700 MB
WARM NOSE ACROSS THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS IN THIS INVERSION PUSHING
+3 TO +5 C BY 06Z SATURDAY. SATURATION IS ONLY ACHIEVED UP TO
850MB (0 C TO -1 C) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A LARGE SLAB OF
DRY AIR FURTHER ALOFT. COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S....THE STAGE IS SET FOR A FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN EVENT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN A LONGER PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FREEZING PRECIP CONDITIONS.
THANKFULLY...ANY GLAZING OF ICE WILL QUICKLY MELT BY MID MORNING
AS CONTINUED WAA PUSHES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY (AND SUNDAY) LOOK TO REACH THE MID 40S WITH THE
BEST POP CHANCES IN THE EAST TIED INTO THE WARM ADVECTION WING OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN
FROM 997 MB TO 979 MB BETWEEN 06Z SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY AS IT
LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS LOW WILL FOLLOW A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY
SNOW IN CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA...BUT THANKFULLY THE THERMAL PROFILES
DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND IOWA WILL SEE
JUST RAIN. BEYOND SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH TIED INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA. IN ANY CASE...COLDER AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW LATE ON SUNDAY AND CHANGE ANY
REMAINING PRECIP INTO SNOW. MULTIPLE INVERTED TROUGHS MAY WRAP
AROUND THE NOW COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND
BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF SNOW THROUGH THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...19/18Z
ISSUED AT 1134 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

LOW VFR STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT SITES THROUGH MUCH OF
PERIOD...WITH OCCASIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CEILINGS AT SITES EARLY
IN PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH 00Z BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY. WILL SEE SCATTERED -SN
WHICH MAY AFFECT SITES. FALLING SN WITH STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO
REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO MVFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS THROUGH 00Z.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR LATE IN PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 191133
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
533 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...WIND AND FLURRIES. FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH BRIEF SHOT OF WARM AIR THIS EARLY MORNING
TRANSITIONS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
FOLLOWING BOUNDARY AND SHOULD BE PRESENT MUCH OF THE DAY...GIVEN
UPSTREAM FETCH THAT EXTENDS WELL BACK TO US CANADIAN BORDER AT
PRESENT. WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT... BUFR
SOUNDINGS REGION WIDE SHOW THAT SATURATED LAYER CONTINUES TO
INTERSECT THE DENDRITIC ZONE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA WITH SCT FLURRIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD GIVEN THAT THERE WILL EITHER BE PERIODS OR
INTERMITTENT FLURRIES TODAY. SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN TEMPS TODAY
THOUGH IN SOME CASES OUR HIGHS MAY BE REACHED BETWEEN 6 AM AND
ABOUT 10 AM AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING TODAY EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND
30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK
DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CANADIAN
ANCHOR LOW RETROGRADING NORTHWARD AND WEST COAST RIDGE FLATTENING
AND MIGRATING EAST. IOWA AND THE REST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CANADA WILL WORK ACROSS IOWA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD. CONTINUED GOING
AT OR BELOW MOST GUIDANCE ON LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN IOWA GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOW PACK.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
OVER IOWA DURING THIS TIME. THIS WAA IS BEING DRIVEN IN PART BY AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. THIS THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
290K SURFACE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A STRENGTHENING 100KT JET AT 300 MB
SUPPLING KINEMATIC FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
BUT OVERALL FORCING REMAINS BROAD AND WEAK AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT GIVEN THE RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE BELOW 850MB.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT PERTAINS TO PRECIP TYPE ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STOUT 900-700 MB
WARM NOSE ACROSS THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS IN THIS INVERSION PUSHING
+3 TO +5 C BY 06Z SATURDAY. SATURATION IS ONLY ACHIEVED UP TO
850MB (0 C TO -1 C) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A LARGE SLAB OF
DRY AIR FURTHER ALOFT. COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S....THE STAGE IS SET FOR A FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN EVENT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN A LONGER PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FREEZING PRECIP CONDITIONS.
THANKFULLY...ANY GLAZING OF ICE WILL QUICKLY MELT BY MID MORNING
AS CONTINUED WAA PUSHES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY (AND SUNDAY) LOOK TO REACH THE MID 40S WITH THE
BEST POP CHANCES IN THE EAST TIED INTO THE WARM ADVECTION WING OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN
FROM 997 MB TO 979 MB BETWEEN 06Z SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY AS IT
LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS LOW WILL FOLLOW A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY
SNOW IN CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA...BUT THANKFULLY THE THERMAL PROFILES
DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND IOWA WILL SEE
JUST RAIN. BEYOND SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH TIED INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA. IN ANY CASE...COLDER AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW LATE ON SUNDAY AND CHANGE ANY
REMAINING PRECIP INTO SNOW. MULTIPLE INVERTED TROUGHS MAY WRAP
AROUND THE NOW COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND
BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF SNOW THROUGH THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...19/12Z
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE WIND TODAY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS. STRONG COLD FRONT AND
BRIEF PRESSURE RISES CAUSING PERIOD OF STRONGER GUSTS TO NEAR 35
TO 40KTS PRIOR TO 15Z FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST
AFFECTING MAINLY KDSM AND KFOD. WINDS REMAINDER OF DAY ALL
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KTS. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP STRATUS DECK AROUND ALL DAY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS AND VFR. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF CLOUD
DECKS AND SCT --SW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFT 23Z MOST AREAS THOUGH
KMCW WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12KTS THROUGH 04Z. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 191133
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
533 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...WIND AND FLURRIES. FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH BRIEF SHOT OF WARM AIR THIS EARLY MORNING
TRANSITIONS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
FOLLOWING BOUNDARY AND SHOULD BE PRESENT MUCH OF THE DAY...GIVEN
UPSTREAM FETCH THAT EXTENDS WELL BACK TO US CANADIAN BORDER AT
PRESENT. WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT... BUFR
SOUNDINGS REGION WIDE SHOW THAT SATURATED LAYER CONTINUES TO
INTERSECT THE DENDRITIC ZONE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA WITH SCT FLURRIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD GIVEN THAT THERE WILL EITHER BE PERIODS OR
INTERMITTENT FLURRIES TODAY. SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN TEMPS TODAY
THOUGH IN SOME CASES OUR HIGHS MAY BE REACHED BETWEEN 6 AM AND
ABOUT 10 AM AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING TODAY EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND
30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK
DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CANADIAN
ANCHOR LOW RETROGRADING NORTHWARD AND WEST COAST RIDGE FLATTENING
AND MIGRATING EAST. IOWA AND THE REST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN
CANADA WILL WORK ACROSS IOWA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.
COLDEST OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY
NIGHT AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD. CONTINUED GOING
AT OR BELOW MOST GUIDANCE ON LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER NORTHERN IOWA GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOW PACK.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
OVER IOWA DURING THIS TIME. THIS WAA IS BEING DRIVEN IN PART BY AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. THIS THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
290K SURFACE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A STRENGTHENING 100KT JET AT 300 MB
SUPPLING KINEMATIC FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
BUT OVERALL FORCING REMAINS BROAD AND WEAK AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT GIVEN THE RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE BELOW 850MB.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT PERTAINS TO PRECIP TYPE ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STOUT 900-700 MB
WARM NOSE ACROSS THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS IN THIS INVERSION PUSHING
+3 TO +5 C BY 06Z SATURDAY. SATURATION IS ONLY ACHIEVED UP TO
850MB (0 C TO -1 C) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A LARGE SLAB OF
DRY AIR FURTHER ALOFT. COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S....THE STAGE IS SET FOR A FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN EVENT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN A LONGER PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FREEZING PRECIP CONDITIONS.
THANKFULLY...ANY GLAZING OF ICE WILL QUICKLY MELT BY MID MORNING
AS CONTINUED WAA PUSHES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY (AND SUNDAY) LOOK TO REACH THE MID 40S WITH THE
BEST POP CHANCES IN THE EAST TIED INTO THE WARM ADVECTION WING OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN
FROM 997 MB TO 979 MB BETWEEN 06Z SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY AS IT
LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS LOW WILL FOLLOW A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY
SNOW IN CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA...BUT THANKFULLY THE THERMAL PROFILES
DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND IOWA WILL SEE
JUST RAIN. BEYOND SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH TIED INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA. IN ANY CASE...COLDER AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW LATE ON SUNDAY AND CHANGE ANY
REMAINING PRECIP INTO SNOW. MULTIPLE INVERTED TROUGHS MAY WRAP
AROUND THE NOW COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND
BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF SNOW THROUGH THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...19/12Z
ISSUED AT 532 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS WILL BE WIND TODAY WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES OR LIGHT
SNOW SHOWERS AT TIMES WITH MVFR/VFR CIGS. STRONG COLD FRONT AND
BRIEF PRESSURE RISES CAUSING PERIOD OF STRONGER GUSTS TO NEAR 35
TO 40KTS PRIOR TO 15Z FROM WEST CENTRAL THROUGH SOUTHEAST
AFFECTING MAINLY KDSM AND KFOD. WINDS REMAINDER OF DAY ALL
LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST WIND WITH GUSTS NEAR 30KTS. COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP STRATUS DECK AROUND ALL DAY WITH PERIODS
OF MVFR CIGS AND VFR. HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE WITH TIMING OF CLOUD
DECKS AND SCT --SW. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFT 23Z MOST AREAS THOUGH
KMCW WILL REMAIN ABOVE 12KTS THROUGH 04Z. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 190959 CCA
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...WIND AND FLURRIES. FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH BRIEF SHOT OF WARM AIR THIS EARLY MORNING
TRANSITIONS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
FOLLOWING BOUNDARY AND SHOULD BE PRESENT MUCH OF THE DAY...GIVEN
UPSTREAM FETCH THAT EXTENDS WELL BACK TO US CANADIAN BORDER AT
PRESENT. WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT... BUFR
SOUNDINGS REGION WIDE SHOW THAT SATURATED LAYER CONTINUES TO
INTERSECT THE DENDRITIC ZONE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA WITH SCT FLURRIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD GIVEN THAT THERE WILL EITHER BE PERIODS OR
INTERMITTENT FLURRIES TODAY. SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN TEMPS TODAY
THOUGH IN SOME CASES OUR HIGHS MAY BE REACHED BETWEEN 6 AM AND
ABOUT 10 AM AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING TODAY EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND
30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK
DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CANADIAN
ANCHOR LOW RETROGRADING NORTHWARD AND WEST COAST RIDGE FLATTENING
AND MIGRATING EAST. IOWA AND THE REST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL WORK ACROSS IOWA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDEST
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD. CONTINUED GOING AT OR BELOW
MOST GUIDANCE ON LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN IOWA GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOW PACK.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
OVER IOWA DURING THIS TIME. THIS WAA IS BEING DRIVEN IN PART BY AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. THIS THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
290K SURFACE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A STRENGTHENING 100KT JET AT 300 MB
SUPPLING KINEMATIC FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
BUT OVERALL FORCING REMAINS BROAD AND WEAK AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT GIVEN THE RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE BELOW 850MB.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT PERTAINS TO PRECIP TYPE ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STOUT 900-700 MB
WARM NOSE ACROSS THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS IN THIS INVERSION PUSHING
+3 TO +5 C BY 06Z SATURDAY. SATURATION IS ONLY ACHIEVED UP TO
850MB (0 C TO -1 C) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A LARGE SLAB OF
DRY AIR FURTHER ALOFT. COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S....THE STAGE IS SET FOR A FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN EVENT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN A LONGER PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FREEZING PRECIP CONDITIONS.
THANKFULLY...ANY GLAZING OF ICE WILL QUICKLY MELT BY MID MORNING
AS CONTINUED WAA PUSHES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY (AND SUNDAY) LOOK TO REACH THE MID 40S WITH THE
BEST POP CHANCES IN THE EAST TIED INTO THE WARM ADVECTION WING OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN
FROM 997 MB TO 979 MB BETWEEN 06Z SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY AS IT
LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS LOW WILL FOLLOW A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY
SNOW IN CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA...BUT THANKFULLY THE THERMAL PROFILES
DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND IOWA WILL SEE
JUST RAIN. BEYOND SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH TIED INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA. IN ANY CASE...COLDER AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW LATE ON SUNDAY AND CHANGE ANY
REMAINING PRECIP INTO SNOW. MULTIPLE INVERTED TROUGHS MAY WRAP
AROUND THE NOW COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND
BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF SNOW THROUGH THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND BRING A SWITCH
TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. MVFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY THEN
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 190959 CCA
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...WIND AND FLURRIES. FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH BRIEF SHOT OF WARM AIR THIS EARLY MORNING
TRANSITIONS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
FOLLOWING BOUNDARY AND SHOULD BE PRESENT MUCH OF THE DAY...GIVEN
UPSTREAM FETCH THAT EXTENDS WELL BACK TO US CANADIAN BORDER AT
PRESENT. WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT... BUFR
SOUNDINGS REGION WIDE SHOW THAT SATURATED LAYER CONTINUES TO
INTERSECT THE DENDRITIC ZONE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA WITH SCT FLURRIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD GIVEN THAT THERE WILL EITHER BE PERIODS OR
INTERMITTENT FLURRIES TODAY. SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN TEMPS TODAY
THOUGH IN SOME CASES OUR HIGHS MAY BE REACHED BETWEEN 6 AM AND
ABOUT 10 AM AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING TODAY EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND
30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK
DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CANADIAN
ANCHOR LOW RETROGRADING NORTHWARD AND WEST COAST RIDGE FLATTENING
AND MIGRATING EAST. IOWA AND THE REST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL WORK ACROSS IOWA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDEST
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD. CONTINUED GOING AT OR BELOW
MOST GUIDANCE ON LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN IOWA GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOW PACK.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
OVER IOWA DURING THIS TIME. THIS WAA IS BEING DRIVEN IN PART BY AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. THIS THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
290K SURFACE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A STRENGTHENING 100KT JET AT 300 MB
SUPPLING KINEMATIC FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
BUT OVERALL FORCING REMAINS BROAD AND WEAK AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT GIVEN THE RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE BELOW 850MB.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT PERTAINS TO PRECIP TYPE ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STOUT 900-700 MB
WARM NOSE ACROSS THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS IN THIS INVERSION PUSHING
+3 TO +5 C BY 06Z SATURDAY. SATURATION IS ONLY ACHIEVED UP TO
850MB (0 C TO -1 C) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A LARGE SLAB OF
DRY AIR FURTHER ALOFT. COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S....THE STAGE IS SET FOR A FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN EVENT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN A LONGER PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FREEZING PRECIP CONDITIONS.
THANKFULLY...ANY GLAZING OF ICE WILL QUICKLY MELT BY MID MORNING
AS CONTINUED WAA PUSHES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY (AND SUNDAY) LOOK TO REACH THE MID 40S WITH THE
BEST POP CHANCES IN THE EAST TIED INTO THE WARM ADVECTION WING OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN
FROM 997 MB TO 979 MB BETWEEN 06Z SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY AS IT
LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS LOW WILL FOLLOW A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY
SNOW IN CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA...BUT THANKFULLY THE THERMAL PROFILES
DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND IOWA WILL SEE
JUST RAIN. BEYOND SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH TIED INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA. IN ANY CASE...COLDER AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW LATE ON SUNDAY AND CHANGE ANY
REMAINING PRECIP INTO SNOW. MULTIPLE INVERTED TROUGHS MAY WRAP
AROUND THE NOW COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND
BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF SNOW THROUGH THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND BRING A SWITCH
TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. MVFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY THEN
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 190959 CCA
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...WIND AND FLURRIES. FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH BRIEF SHOT OF WARM AIR THIS EARLY MORNING
TRANSITIONS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
FOLLOWING BOUNDARY AND SHOULD BE PRESENT MUCH OF THE DAY...GIVEN
UPSTREAM FETCH THAT EXTENDS WELL BACK TO US CANADIAN BORDER AT
PRESENT. WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT... BUFR
SOUNDINGS REGION WIDE SHOW THAT SATURATED LAYER CONTINUES TO
INTERSECT THE DENDRITIC ZONE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA WITH SCT FLURRIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD GIVEN THAT THERE WILL EITHER BE PERIODS OR
INTERMITTENT FLURRIES TODAY. SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN TEMPS TODAY
THOUGH IN SOME CASES OUR HIGHS MAY BE REACHED BETWEEN 6 AM AND
ABOUT 10 AM AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING TODAY EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND
30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK
DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CANADIAN
ANCHOR LOW RETROGRADING NORTHWARD AND WEST COAST RIDGE FLATTENING
AND MIGRATING EAST. IOWA AND THE REST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL WORK ACROSS IOWA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDEST
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD. CONTINUED GOING AT OR BELOW
MOST GUIDANCE ON LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN IOWA GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOW PACK.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
OVER IOWA DURING THIS TIME. THIS WAA IS BEING DRIVEN IN PART BY AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. THIS THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
290K SURFACE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A STRENGTHENING 100KT JET AT 300 MB
SUPPLING KINEMATIC FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
BUT OVERALL FORCING REMAINS BROAD AND WEAK AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT GIVEN THE RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE BELOW 850MB.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT PERTAINS TO PRECIP TYPE ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STOUT 900-700 MB
WARM NOSE ACROSS THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS IN THIS INVERSION PUSHING
+3 TO +5 C BY 06Z SATURDAY. SATURATION IS ONLY ACHIEVED UP TO
850MB (0 C TO -1 C) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A LARGE SLAB OF
DRY AIR FURTHER ALOFT. COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S....THE STAGE IS SET FOR A FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN EVENT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN A LONGER PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FREEZING PRECIP CONDITIONS.
THANKFULLY...ANY GLAZING OF ICE WILL QUICKLY MELT BY MID MORNING
AS CONTINUED WAA PUSHES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY (AND SUNDAY) LOOK TO REACH THE MID 40S WITH THE
BEST POP CHANCES IN THE EAST TIED INTO THE WARM ADVECTION WING OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN
FROM 997 MB TO 979 MB BETWEEN 06Z SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY AS IT
LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS LOW WILL FOLLOW A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY
SNOW IN CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA...BUT THANKFULLY THE THERMAL PROFILES
DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND IOWA WILL SEE
JUST RAIN. BEYOND SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH TIED INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA. IN ANY CASE...COLDER AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW LATE ON SUNDAY AND CHANGE ANY
REMAINING PRECIP INTO SNOW. MULTIPLE INVERTED TROUGHS MAY WRAP
AROUND THE NOW COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND
BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF SNOW THROUGH THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND BRING A SWITCH
TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. MVFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY THEN
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 190959 CCA
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...WIND AND FLURRIES. FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH BRIEF SHOT OF WARM AIR THIS EARLY MORNING
TRANSITIONS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
FOLLOWING BOUNDARY AND SHOULD BE PRESENT MUCH OF THE DAY...GIVEN
UPSTREAM FETCH THAT EXTENDS WELL BACK TO US CANADIAN BORDER AT
PRESENT. WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT... BUFR
SOUNDINGS REGION WIDE SHOW THAT SATURATED LAYER CONTINUES TO
INTERSECT THE DENDRITIC ZONE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA WITH SCT FLURRIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD GIVEN THAT THERE WILL EITHER BE PERIODS OR
INTERMITTENT FLURRIES TODAY. SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN TEMPS TODAY
THOUGH IN SOME CASES OUR HIGHS MAY BE REACHED BETWEEN 6 AM AND
ABOUT 10 AM AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING TODAY EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND
30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK
DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CANADIAN
ANCHOR LOW RETROGRADING NORTHWARD AND WEST COAST RIDGE FLATTENING
AND MIGRATING EAST. IOWA AND THE REST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL WORK ACROSS IOWA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDEST
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD. CONTINUED GOING AT OR BELOW
MOST GUIDANCE ON LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN IOWA GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOW PACK.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
OVER IOWA DURING THIS TIME. THIS WAA IS BEING DRIVEN IN PART BY AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. THIS THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
290K SURFACE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A STRENGTHENING 100KT JET AT 300 MB
SUPPLING KINEMATIC FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
BUT OVERALL FORCING REMAINS BROAD AND WEAK AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT GIVEN THE RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE BELOW 850MB.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT PERTAINS TO PRECIP TYPE ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STOUT 900-700 MB
WARM NOSE ACROSS THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS IN THIS INVERSION PUSHING
+3 TO +5 C BY 06Z SATURDAY. SATURATION IS ONLY ACHIEVED UP TO
850MB (0 C TO -1 C) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A LARGE SLAB OF
DRY AIR FURTHER ALOFT. COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S....THE STAGE IS SET FOR A FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN EVENT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN A LONGER PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FREEZING PRECIP CONDITIONS.
THANKFULLY...ANY GLAZING OF ICE WILL QUICKLY MELT BY MID MORNING
AS CONTINUED WAA PUSHES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY (AND SUNDAY) LOOK TO REACH THE MID 40S WITH THE
BEST POP CHANCES IN THE EAST TIED INTO THE WARM ADVECTION WING OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN
FROM 997 MB TO 979 MB BETWEEN 06Z SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY AS IT
LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS LOW WILL FOLLOW A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY
SNOW IN CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA...BUT THANKFULLY THE THERMAL PROFILES
DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND IOWA WILL SEE
JUST RAIN. BEYOND SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH TIED INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA. IN ANY CASE...COLDER AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW LATE ON SUNDAY AND CHANGE ANY
REMAINING PRECIP INTO SNOW. MULTIPLE INVERTED TROUGHS MAY WRAP
AROUND THE NOW COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND
BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF SNOW THROUGH THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND BRING A SWITCH
TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. MVFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY THEN
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 190955
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...WIND AND FLURRIES. FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH BRIEF SHOT OF WARM AIR THIS EARLY MORNING
TRANSITIONS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
FOLLOWING BOUNDARY AND SHOULD BE PRESENT MUCH OF THE DAY...GIVEN
UPSTREAM FETCH THAT EXTENDS WELL BACK TO US CANADIAN BORDER AT
PRESENT. WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT... BUFR
SOUNDINGS REGION WIDE SHOW THAT SATURATED LAYER CONTINUES TO
INTERSECT THE DENDRITIC ZONE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA WITH SCT FLURRIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD GIVEN THAT THERE WILL EITHER BE PERIODS OR
INTERMITTENT FLURRIES TODAY. SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN TEMPS TODAY
THOUGH IN SOME CASES OUR HIGHS MAY BE REACHED BETWEEN 6 AM AND
ABOUT 10 AM AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING TODAY EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND
30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK
DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CANADIAN
ANCHOR LOW RETROGRADING NORTHWARD AND WEST COAST RIDGE FLATTENING
AND MIGRATING EAST. IOWA AND THE REST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL WORK ACROSS IOWA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDEST
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD. CONTINUED GOING AT OR BELOW
MOST GUIDANCE ON LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN IOWA GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOW PACK.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
OVER IOWA DURING THIS TIME. THIS WAA IS BEING DRIVEN IN PART BY AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. THIS THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
290K SURFACE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A STRENGTHENING 100KT JET AT 300 MB
SUPPLING KINEMATIC FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
BUT OVERALL FORCING REMAINS BROAD AND WEAK AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT GIVEN THE RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE BELOW 850MB.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT PERTAINS TO PRECIP TYPE ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STOUT 900-700 MB
WARM NOSE ACROSS THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS IN THIS INVERSION PUSHING
+3 TO +5 C BY 06Z SATURDAY. SATURATION IS ONLY ACHIEVED UP TO
850MB (0 C TO -1 C) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A LARGE SLAB OF
DRY AIR FURTHER ALOFT. COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S....THE STAGE IS SET FOR A FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN EVENT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN A LONGER PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FREEZING PRECIP CONDITIONS.
THANKFULLY...ANY GLAZING OF ICE WILL QUICKLY MELT BY MID MORNING
AS CONTINUED WAA PUSHES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY (AND SUNDAY) LOOK TO REACH THE MID 40S WITH THE
BEST POP CHANCES IN THE EAST TIED INTO THE WARM ADVECTION WING OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN
FROM 997 MB TO 979 MB BETWEEN 06Z SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY AS IT
LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS LOW WILL FOLLOW A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY
SNOW IN CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA...BUT THANKFULLY THE THERMAL PROFILES
DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND IOWA WILL SEE
JUST RAIN. BEYOND SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH TIED INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA. IN ANY CASE...COLDER AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW LATE ON SUNDAY AND CHANGE ANY
REMAINING PRECIP INTO SNOW. MULTIPLE INVERTED TROUGHS MAY WRAP
AROUND THE NOW COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND
BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF SNOW THROUGH THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND BRING A SWITCH
TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. MVFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY THEN
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 190955
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...WIND AND FLURRIES. FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH BRIEF SHOT OF WARM AIR THIS EARLY MORNING
TRANSITIONS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
FOLLOWING BOUNDARY AND SHOULD BE PRESENT MUCH OF THE DAY...GIVEN
UPSTREAM FETCH THAT EXTENDS WELL BACK TO US CANADIAN BORDER AT
PRESENT. WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT... BUFR
SOUNDINGS REGION WIDE SHOW THAT SATURATED LAYER CONTINUES TO
INTERSECT THE DENDRITIC ZONE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA WITH SCT FLURRIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD GIVEN THAT THERE WILL EITHER BE PERIODS OR
INTERMITTENT FLURRIES TODAY. SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN TEMPS TODAY
THOUGH IN SOME CASES OUR HIGHS MAY BE REACHED BETWEEN 6 AM AND
ABOUT 10 AM AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING TODAY EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND
30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK
DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CANADIAN
ANCHOR LOW RETROGRADING NORTHWARD AND WEST COAST RIDGE FLATTENING
AND MIGRATING EAST. IOWA AND THE REST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL WORK ACROSS IOWA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDEST
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD. CONTINUED GOING AT OR BELOW
MOST GUIDANCE ON LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN IOWA GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOW PACK.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
OVER IOWA DURING THIS TIME. THIS WAA IS BEING DRIVEN IN PART BY AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. THIS THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
290K SURFACE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A STRENGTHENING 100KT JET AT 300 MB
SUPPLING KINEMATIC FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
BUT OVERALL FORCING REMAINS BROAD AND WEAK AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT GIVEN THE RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE BELOW 850MB.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT PERTAINS TO PRECIP TYPE ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STOUT 900-700 MB
WARM NOSE ACROSS THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS IN THIS INVERSION PUSHING
+3 TO +5 C BY 06Z SATURDAY. SATURATION IS ONLY ACHIEVED UP TO
850MB (0 C TO -1 C) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A LARGE SLAB OF
DRY AIR FURTHER ALOFT. COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S....THE STAGE IS SET FOR A FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN EVENT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN A LONGER PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FREEZING PRECIP CONDITIONS.
THANKFULLY...ANY GLAZING OF ICE WILL QUICKLY MELT BY MID MORNING
AS CONTINUED WAA PUSHES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY (AND SUNDAY) LOOK TO REACH THE MID 40S WITH THE
BEST POP CHANCES IN THE EAST TIED INTO THE WARM ADVECTION WING OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN
FROM 997 MB TO 979 MB BETWEEN 06Z SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY AS IT
LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS LOW WILL FOLLOW A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY
SNOW IN CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA...BUT THANKFULLY THE THERMAL PROFILES
DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND IOWA WILL SEE
JUST RAIN. BEYOND SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH TIED INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA. IN ANY CASE...COLDER AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW LATE ON SUNDAY AND CHANGE ANY
REMAINING PRECIP INTO SNOW. MULTIPLE INVERTED TROUGHS MAY WRAP
AROUND THE NOW COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND
BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF SNOW THROUGH THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND BRING A SWITCH
TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. MVFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY THEN
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 190955
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TODAY WILL BE CLOUDS...WIND AND FLURRIES. FAST
MOVING SHORTWAVE WITH BRIEF SHOT OF WARM AIR THIS EARLY MORNING
TRANSITIONS TO COLD AIR ADVECTION AND BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE
FOLLOWING BOUNDARY AND SHOULD BE PRESENT MUCH OF THE DAY...GIVEN
UPSTREAM FETCH THAT EXTENDS WELL BACK TO US CANADIAN BORDER AT
PRESENT. WITH THE SHALLOW MOISTURE AND COLD AIR ALOFT... BUFR
SOUNDINGS REGION WIDE SHOW THAT SATURATED LAYER CONTINUES TO
INTERSECT THE DENDRITIC ZONE TODAY AND ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.
HAVE BLANKETED THE AREA WITH SCT FLURRIES FOR THE BALANCE OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD GIVEN THAT THERE WILL EITHER BE PERIODS OR
INTERMITTENT FLURRIES TODAY. SOME MINOR RECOVERY IN TEMPS TODAY
THOUGH IN SOME CASES OUR HIGHS MAY BE REACHED BETWEEN 6 AM AND
ABOUT 10 AM AS COLDER AIR SPILLS INTO THE AREA FOR THE BALANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON. WITH MIXING TODAY EXPECTING WINDS TO GUST TO AROUND
30 TO 35 MPH AT TIMES EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 19 2014

HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LONGWAVE PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA WILL BREAK
DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND...WITH THE CANADIAN
ANCHOR LOW RETROGRADING NORTHWARD AND WEST COAST RIDGE FLATTENING
AND MIGRATING EAST. IOWA AND THE REST OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL
REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING...WHICH WILL KEEP UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE.
ELONGATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CELL CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN CANADA
WILL WORK ACROSS IOWA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDEST
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE READINGS ARE LIKELY ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE
CENTER OF THE HIGH PASSES OVERHEAD. CONTINUED GOING AT OR BELOW
MOST GUIDANCE ON LOWS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER
NORTHERN IOWA GIVEN THE CURRENT SNOW PACK.

SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW SETS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING HIGH ON FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION TAKING PLACE
OVER IOWA DURING THIS TIME. THIS WAA IS BEING DRIVEN IN PART BY AN
UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST UNITED
STATES. THIS THERMODYNAMIC FORCING/WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT ALONG THE
290K SURFACE WILL DRIVE PRECIP CHANCES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...WITH A STRENGTHENING 100KT JET AT 300 MB
SUPPLING KINEMATIC FORCING FOR ASCENT DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
BUT OVERALL FORCING REMAINS BROAD AND WEAK AND QPF AMOUNTS WILL BE
LIGHT GIVEN THE RATHER SHALLOW MOISTURE PROFILE BELOW 850MB.

THE FLY IN THE OINTMENT PERTAINS TO PRECIP TYPE ON FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A STOUT 900-700 MB
WARM NOSE ACROSS THE CWA WITH MAX TEMPS IN THIS INVERSION PUSHING
+3 TO +5 C BY 06Z SATURDAY. SATURATION IS ONLY ACHIEVED UP TO
850MB (0 C TO -1 C) DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WITH A LARGE SLAB OF
DRY AIR FURTHER ALOFT. COUPLED WITH SURFACE TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S
TO LOW 30S....THE STAGE IS SET FOR A FREEZING DRIZZLE/LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN EVENT. COMPARED TO YESTERDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
SLOWED THE OVERALL PROGRESSION OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH HAS RESULTED
IN A LONGER PERIOD OF FAVORABLE FREEZING PRECIP CONDITIONS.
THANKFULLY...ANY GLAZING OF ICE WILL QUICKLY MELT BY MID MORNING
AS CONTINUED WAA PUSHES SURFACE TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING.

HIGHS ON SATURDAY (AND SUNDAY) LOOK TO REACH THE MID 40S WITH THE
BEST POP CHANCES IN THE EAST TIED INTO THE WARM ADVECTION WING OF
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER TEXAS. THIS LOW WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN
FROM 997 MB TO 979 MB BETWEEN 06Z SUNDAY AND 06Z MONDAY AS IT
LIFTS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES.
THIS LOW WILL FOLLOW A CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORABLE TRACK FOR HEAVY
SNOW IN CENTRAL/EASTERN IOWA...BUT THANKFULLY THE THERMAL PROFILES
DURING THIS TIME WILL REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AND IOWA WILL SEE
JUST RAIN. BEYOND SUNDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE AS THE NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 MB TROUGH TIED INTO THE
AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH A SECONDARY WAVE
DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM ALBERTA. IN ANY CASE...COLDER AIR WILL
SPILL IN BEHIND THE SURFACE LOW LATE ON SUNDAY AND CHANGE ANY
REMAINING PRECIP INTO SNOW. MULTIPLE INVERTED TROUGHS MAY WRAP
AROUND THE NOW COMPLEX UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AND
BRING CONTINUED CHANCES OF SNOW THROUGH THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND BRING A SWITCH
TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. MVFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY THEN
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
LATE AFTERNOON.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 190538
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1138 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER CENTRAL IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BEFORE EVENING.  A SHORT WAVE
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HEAD TOWARDS IOWA THIS
EVENING.  SNOW IS ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
WILL INCH TOWARDS IOWA.  LOWER CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS WILL MOVE
INTO NW IA AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING.

I AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM.  MODELS ONLY
PRINT OUT A SPOTTY COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS AT BEST FOR TONIGHT AND
THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME BETTER FORCING BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BENEATH A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER FROM ABOUT 820MB THROUGH 700MB UNTIL AROUND
09Z WHEN THE COLUMN FINALLY MOISTENS UP ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BUT BY
THEN THE BEST FORCING IS LONG GONE.  LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTING TO A
DUSTING...OR CERTAINLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH...IS LIKELY ALL WE WILL
SEE OUT OF THIS.  THEN WE GET BACK INTO COLD ADVECTION.  BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND START
TO INCREASE.  I DO NOT THINK BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE VERY LATE...PREVIOUS SNOW IS HARD PACKED NOW FROM THE
YESTERDAYS WIND AND ANY NEW SNOW WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE STATE OF THE PERIOD AS
THERMAL TROF BUILDS TOWARD IOWA. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD
ADVECTION...SUBSIDENCE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE WILL HELP WINDS
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SOME LOW
LEVEL SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND ANTICIPATE A FEW
FLURRIES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW IN FAVORED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE SN-/SN--
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE HEADS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN IMMEDIATELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS INTO THE STATE AND EXPECTED STATUS TO
OVERSPREAD THE STATE. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ANTICIPATED
ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AN NONDIURNAL CURVE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION. ANY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE STATE.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEKEND.
EURO REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND DEEPER AS NORTHERN STREAM PHASING
OCCURS MORE QUICKLY AND PROMINENTLY THAN THE GFS. THIS WOULD KEEP
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST INTO IOWA AS SURFACE LOW
RAPIDLY DEEPENS. IN EITHER CASE...THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
LIQUID FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AS SYSTEM INITIALLY HAS PLENTY OF
WARM AIR. HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY ENSUE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADING THE STATE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND BRING A SWITCH
TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. MVFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY THEN
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 190538
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1138 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER CENTRAL IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BEFORE EVENING.  A SHORT WAVE
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HEAD TOWARDS IOWA THIS
EVENING.  SNOW IS ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
WILL INCH TOWARDS IOWA.  LOWER CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS WILL MOVE
INTO NW IA AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING.

I AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM.  MODELS ONLY
PRINT OUT A SPOTTY COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS AT BEST FOR TONIGHT AND
THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME BETTER FORCING BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BENEATH A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER FROM ABOUT 820MB THROUGH 700MB UNTIL AROUND
09Z WHEN THE COLUMN FINALLY MOISTENS UP ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BUT BY
THEN THE BEST FORCING IS LONG GONE.  LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTING TO A
DUSTING...OR CERTAINLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH...IS LIKELY ALL WE WILL
SEE OUT OF THIS.  THEN WE GET BACK INTO COLD ADVECTION.  BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND START
TO INCREASE.  I DO NOT THINK BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE VERY LATE...PREVIOUS SNOW IS HARD PACKED NOW FROM THE
YESTERDAYS WIND AND ANY NEW SNOW WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE STATE OF THE PERIOD AS
THERMAL TROF BUILDS TOWARD IOWA. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD
ADVECTION...SUBSIDENCE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE WILL HELP WINDS
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SOME LOW
LEVEL SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND ANTICIPATE A FEW
FLURRIES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW IN FAVORED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE SN-/SN--
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE HEADS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN IMMEDIATELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS INTO THE STATE AND EXPECTED STATUS TO
OVERSPREAD THE STATE. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ANTICIPATED
ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AN NONDIURNAL CURVE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION. ANY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE STATE.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEKEND.
EURO REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND DEEPER AS NORTHERN STREAM PHASING
OCCURS MORE QUICKLY AND PROMINENTLY THAN THE GFS. THIS WOULD KEEP
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST INTO IOWA AS SURFACE LOW
RAPIDLY DEEPENS. IN EITHER CASE...THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
LIQUID FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AS SYSTEM INITIALLY HAS PLENTY OF
WARM AIR. HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY ENSUE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADING THE STATE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NEBRASKA WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT AND BRING A SWITCH
TO GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS. MVFR CIGS WILL FOLLOW THE BOUNDARY THEN
LINGER INTO WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT SNOW LIKELY
THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH MINOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE.
THE GUSTY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING BY
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 182340
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
540 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER CENTRAL IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BEFORE EVENING.  A SHORT WAVE
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HEAD TOWARDS IOWA THIS
EVENING.  SNOW IS ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
WILL INCH TOWARDS IOWA.  LOWER CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS WILL MOVE
INTO NW IA AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING.

I AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM.  MODELS ONLY
PRINT OUT A SPOTTY COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS AT BEST FOR TONIGHT AND
THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME BETTER FORCING BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BENEATH A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER FROM ABOUT 820MB THROUGH 700MB UNTIL AROUND
09Z WHEN THE COLUMN FINALLY MOISTENS UP ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BUT BY
THEN THE BEST FORCING IS LONG GONE.  LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTING TO A
DUSTING...OR CERTAINLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH...IS LIKELY ALL WE WILL
SEE OUT OF THIS.  THEN WE GET BACK INTO COLD ADVECTION.  BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND START
TO INCREASE.  I DO NOT THINK BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE VERY LATE...PREVIOUS SNOW IS HARD PACKED NOW FROM THE
YESTERDAYS WIND AND ANY NEW SNOW WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE STATE OF THE PERIOD AS
THERMAL TROF BUILDS TOWARD IOWA. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD
ADVECTION...SUBSIDENCE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE WILL HELP WINDS
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SOME LOW
LEVEL SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND ANTICIPATE A FEW
FLURRIES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW IN FAVORED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE SN-/SN--
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE HEADS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN IMMEDIATELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS INTO THE STATE AND EXPECTED STATUS TO
OVERSPREAD THE STATE. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ANTICIPATED
ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AN NONDIURNAL CURVE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION. ANY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE STATE.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEKEND.
EURO REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND DEEPER AS NORTHERN STREAM PHASING
OCCURS MORE QUICKLY AND PROMINENTLY THAN THE GFS. THIS WOULD KEEP
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST INTO IOWA AS SURFACE LOW
RAPIDLY DEEPENS. IN EITHER CASE...THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
LIQUID FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AS SYSTEM INITIALLY HAS PLENTY OF
WARM AIR. HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY ENSUE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADING THE STATE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...19/00Z
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

CIGS NEAR MVFR CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WITH MOST OF THE
SITES CURRENTLY VFR. VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS. SRN SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR FOR A
PERIOD BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS ARRIVE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY. FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 182340
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
540 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER CENTRAL IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BEFORE EVENING.  A SHORT WAVE
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HEAD TOWARDS IOWA THIS
EVENING.  SNOW IS ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
WILL INCH TOWARDS IOWA.  LOWER CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS WILL MOVE
INTO NW IA AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING.

I AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM.  MODELS ONLY
PRINT OUT A SPOTTY COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS AT BEST FOR TONIGHT AND
THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME BETTER FORCING BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BENEATH A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER FROM ABOUT 820MB THROUGH 700MB UNTIL AROUND
09Z WHEN THE COLUMN FINALLY MOISTENS UP ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BUT BY
THEN THE BEST FORCING IS LONG GONE.  LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTING TO A
DUSTING...OR CERTAINLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH...IS LIKELY ALL WE WILL
SEE OUT OF THIS.  THEN WE GET BACK INTO COLD ADVECTION.  BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND START
TO INCREASE.  I DO NOT THINK BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE VERY LATE...PREVIOUS SNOW IS HARD PACKED NOW FROM THE
YESTERDAYS WIND AND ANY NEW SNOW WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE STATE OF THE PERIOD AS
THERMAL TROF BUILDS TOWARD IOWA. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD
ADVECTION...SUBSIDENCE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE WILL HELP WINDS
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SOME LOW
LEVEL SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND ANTICIPATE A FEW
FLURRIES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW IN FAVORED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE SN-/SN--
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE HEADS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN IMMEDIATELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS INTO THE STATE AND EXPECTED STATUS TO
OVERSPREAD THE STATE. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ANTICIPATED
ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AN NONDIURNAL CURVE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION. ANY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE STATE.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEKEND.
EURO REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND DEEPER AS NORTHERN STREAM PHASING
OCCURS MORE QUICKLY AND PROMINENTLY THAN THE GFS. THIS WOULD KEEP
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST INTO IOWA AS SURFACE LOW
RAPIDLY DEEPENS. IN EITHER CASE...THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
LIQUID FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AS SYSTEM INITIALLY HAS PLENTY OF
WARM AIR. HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY ENSUE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADING THE STATE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...19/00Z
ISSUED AT 540 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

CIGS NEAR MVFR CURRENTLY OVER NORTHEAST IOWA WITH MOST OF THE
SITES CURRENTLY VFR. VFR WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
A SYSTEM WILL ARRIVE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WITH A CHANCE FOR
LIGHT SNOW AND MVFR CIGS. SRN SITES SHOULD RETURN TO VFR FOR A
PERIOD BEFORE MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUDS ARRIVE. SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THIS EVENING BECOMING WEST TO NORTHWEST
AFTER MIDNIGHT THEN GUSTY ON WEDNESDAY. FLURRIES OR VERY LIGHT
SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS WELL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 182125
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
325 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER CENTRAL IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BEFORE EVENING.  A SHORT WAVE
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HEAD TOWARDS IOWA THIS
EVENING.  SNOW IS ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
WILL INCH TOWARDS IOWA.  LOWER CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS WILL MOVE
INTO NW IA AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING.

I AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM.  MODELS ONLY
PRINT OUT A SPOTTY COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS AT BEST FOR TONIGHT AND
THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME BETTER FORCING BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BENEATH A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER FROM ABOUT 820MB THROUGH 700MB UNTIL AROUND
09Z WHEN THE COLUMN FINALLY MOISTENS UP ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BUT BY
THEN THE BEST FORCING IS LONG GONE.  LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTING TO A
DUSTING...OR CERTAINLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH...IS LIKELY ALL WE WILL
SEE OUT OF THIS.  THEN WE GET BACK INTO COLD ADVECTION.  BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND START
TO INCREASE.  I DO NOT THINK BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE VERY LATE...PREVIOUS SNOW IS HARD PACKED NOW FROM THE
YESTERDAYS WIND AND ANY NEW SNOW WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE STATE OF THE PERIOD AS
THERMAL TROF BUILDS TOWARD IOWA. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD
ADVECTION...SUBSIDENCE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE WILL HELP WINDS
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SOME LOW
LEVEL SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND ANTICIPATE A FEW
FLURRIES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW IN FAVORED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE SN-/SN--
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE HEADS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN IMMEDIATELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS INTO THE STATE AND EXPECTED STATUS TO
OVERSPREAD THE STATE. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ANTICIPATED
ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AN NONDIURNAL CURVE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION. ANY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE STATE.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEKEND.
EURO REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND DEEPER AS NORTHERN STREAM PHASING
OCCURS MORE QUICKLY AND PROMINENTLY THAN THE GFS. THIS WOULD KEEP
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST INTO IOWA AS SURFACE LOW
RAPIDLY DEEPENS. IN EITHER CASE...THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
LIQUID FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AS SYSTEM INITIALLY HAS PLENTY OF
WARM AIR. HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY ENSUE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADING THE STATE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...18/18Z
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE WITHIN THE ZONE
OF WARM ADVECTION HAS CREATED CIGS AROUND 4KFT.  SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
THIS EVENING SPREADING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA.  THERE IS SOME WEAK
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A DISTINCT DRY LAYER NOSES IN SO THIS
MAY HAMPER SNOWFALL...AT LEAST INITIALLY...BUT THE AIR DOES SATURATE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.  SFC WIND BECOMES NW AND WIND G25-30KT AFT 14Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 182125
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
325 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WAS RESPONSIBLE FOR
THE CLOUD COVER AND SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES OVER CENTRAL IOWA THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CLEAR THE AREA BEFORE EVENING.  A SHORT WAVE
NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL HEAD TOWARDS IOWA THIS
EVENING.  SNOW IS ALREADY SPREADING INTO THE CENTRAL DAKOTAS AND
WILL INCH TOWARDS IOWA.  LOWER CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THIS WILL MOVE
INTO NW IA AND SPREAD SOUTHEAST DURING THE EVENING.

I AM NOT IMPRESSED WITH SNOW CHANCES WITH THIS SYSTEM.  MODELS ONLY
PRINT OUT A SPOTTY COUPLE OF HUNDREDTHS AT BEST FOR TONIGHT AND
THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW OF SOME BETTER FORCING BETWEEN 03Z AND 09Z.
HOWEVER...SOUNDINGS SHOW A SHALLOW MOIST LAYER BENEATH A FAIRLY
SUBSTANTIAL DRY LAYER FROM ABOUT 820MB THROUGH 700MB UNTIL AROUND
09Z WHEN THE COLUMN FINALLY MOISTENS UP ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA BUT BY
THEN THE BEST FORCING IS LONG GONE.  LIGHT SNOW AMOUNTING TO A
DUSTING...OR CERTAINLY LESS THAN A HALF INCH...IS LIKELY ALL WE WILL
SEE OUT OF THIS.  THEN WE GET BACK INTO COLD ADVECTION.  BY LATE
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WINDS TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AND START
TO INCREASE.  I DO NOT THINK BLOWING SNOW WILL BE AN ISSUE TONIGHT.
WINDS INCREASE VERY LATE...PREVIOUS SNOW IS HARD PACKED NOW FROM THE
YESTERDAYS WIND AND ANY NEW SNOW WILL NOT BE ENOUGH TO REDUCE
VISIBILITIES.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 227 PM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

COLD ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE STATE OF THE PERIOD AS
THERMAL TROF BUILDS TOWARD IOWA. THE COMBINATION OF THE COLD
ADVECTION...SUBSIDENCE AND UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILE WILL HELP WINDS
REMAIN STRONG THROUGH THE DAY. SOUNDINGS ALSO INDICATE SOME LOW
LEVEL SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND ANTICIPATE A FEW
FLURRIES AS WELL...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY
BLOWING SNOW IN FAVORED AREAS ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE THE SN-/SN--
ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL SUBSIDE IN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
AS SURFACE RIDGE HEADS INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY AND
EVENTUALLY ACROSS THE STATE BY LATE THURSDAY. WARM ADVECTION WILL
BEGIN IMMEDIATELY ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE RIDGE AS SHORTWAVE MOVES
INTO THE PLAINS. SOUNDINGS INDICATE LOW LEVEL SATURATION OCCURS ON
FRIDAY AS MOISTURE RETURNS INTO THE STATE AND EXPECTED STATUS TO
OVERSPREAD THE STATE. AS THE WEAK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES LATE FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE IS ANTICIPATED
ACRS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA. HAVE ALSO INCLUDED AN NONDIURNAL CURVE
ON FRIDAY NIGHT AS WELL WITH THE STRONG WARM ADVECTION. ANY LIGHT
FREEZING DRIZZLE REMAINING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY
MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT DRIZZLE/RAIN BY MID TO LATE MORNING
SATURDAY AS WARM AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE STATE.

STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM LATER THIS WEEKEND.
EURO REMAINS FARTHER WEST AND DEEPER AS NORTHERN STREAM PHASING
OCCURS MORE QUICKLY AND PROMINENTLY THAN THE GFS. THIS WOULD KEEP
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION FARTHER WEST INTO IOWA AS SURFACE LOW
RAPIDLY DEEPENS. IN EITHER CASE...THE PRECIPITATION WOULD BE
LIQUID FOR MUCH OF THE EVENT AS SYSTEM INITIALLY HAS PLENTY OF
WARM AIR. HOWEVER...COLD ADVECTION WILL RAPIDLY ENSUE BY SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH MUCH COLDER AIR OVERSPREADING THE STATE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. IN GENERAL...HAVE KEPT THE CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE TRENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...18/18Z
ISSUED AT 1145 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2014

WARM ADVECTION CONTINUES OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE WITHIN THE ZONE
OF WARM ADVECTION HAS CREATED CIGS AROUND 4KFT.  SOME FLURRIES OR
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE ALSO DEVELOPED AND WILL CONTINUE TO MIGRATE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.  A SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA
THIS EVENING SPREADING LOW CLOUDS INTO THE AREA.  THERE IS SOME WEAK
FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT A DISTINCT DRY LAYER NOSES IN SO THIS
MAY HAMPER SNOWFALL...AT LEAST INITIALLY...BUT THE AIR DOES SATURATE
BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z.  SFC WIND BECOMES NW AND WIND G25-30KT AFT 14Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB





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