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000
FXUS63 KDMX 281127
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
527 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WAA TO CONTINUE...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GIVEN CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...FOR THE DAY. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DAY WILL BE WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER BAND OF FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
GENERATING PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE LOW LEVELS
HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE AND WILL BE SATURATED...BEST FORCING IS JUST
ABOVE THIS LAYER INTO DRY AIR...AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY ATTM.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. HIGHER
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH TODAY AND BY THIS EVENING
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELT INTO
CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED
WITH A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT AND WILL BE RESIDING OVER A COLD
GROUND AND/RESIDUAL SNOW FIELD WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO DES
MOINES TO DENISON LINE. SREF PROBS FOR LESS THAN 1 MILE
VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE. DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ERODE
THE FOG AND STRATUS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT IT STILL MAY LINGER
OVER THE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONTINGENT ON SNOW MELT AND STRATUS SHIELD.
STILL EXPECT HIGHS INTO THE 50S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE
40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE NORTH AND EAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS VEER AND BECOME
LIGHT. AGAIN THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE FOR A PERIOD BEFORE
ERODING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME HINTS AT DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE THE GREATEST AND WHERE SOME WEAK VERTICAL ASCENT WITHIN THE
PROFILE WILL BE PRESENT WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION STILL ONGOING. THE
OVERALL DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR PREFERRED DRIZZLE
GENERATION THUS HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST MOVES THROUGH . AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WILL PASS
ACROSS THE COLD DOME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY GENERATE SCATTERED
FLURRIES. THE LOWEST 250 MB WILL BE QUITE DRY AS THE FORCING
PASSES BY RESULTING IN EVAPORATION OF ANY DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS.
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ONE MORE BOUT
OF COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
A MORE MILD ZONAL FLOW FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TODAY AND MAY BE
STRONG...UP TO 15KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 00Z. HOWEVER...GIVEN AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECT BR/FG AT SITES BEYOND 00Z. HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY ATTM WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS...THOUGH COULD SEE VISIBILITIES
DROP TO IFR OR LOWER AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 281127
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
527 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WAA TO CONTINUE...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GIVEN CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...FOR THE DAY. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DAY WILL BE WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER BAND OF FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
GENERATING PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE LOW LEVELS
HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE AND WILL BE SATURATED...BEST FORCING IS JUST
ABOVE THIS LAYER INTO DRY AIR...AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY ATTM.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. HIGHER
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH TODAY AND BY THIS EVENING
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELT INTO
CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED
WITH A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT AND WILL BE RESIDING OVER A COLD
GROUND AND/RESIDUAL SNOW FIELD WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO DES
MOINES TO DENISON LINE. SREF PROBS FOR LESS THAN 1 MILE
VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE. DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ERODE
THE FOG AND STRATUS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT IT STILL MAY LINGER
OVER THE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONTINGENT ON SNOW MELT AND STRATUS SHIELD.
STILL EXPECT HIGHS INTO THE 50S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE
40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE NORTH AND EAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS VEER AND BECOME
LIGHT. AGAIN THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE FOR A PERIOD BEFORE
ERODING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME HINTS AT DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE THE GREATEST AND WHERE SOME WEAK VERTICAL ASCENT WITHIN THE
PROFILE WILL BE PRESENT WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION STILL ONGOING. THE
OVERALL DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR PREFERRED DRIZZLE
GENERATION THUS HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST MOVES THROUGH . AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WILL PASS
ACROSS THE COLD DOME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY GENERATE SCATTERED
FLURRIES. THE LOWEST 250 MB WILL BE QUITE DRY AS THE FORCING
PASSES BY RESULTING IN EVAPORATION OF ANY DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS.
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ONE MORE BOUT
OF COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
A MORE MILD ZONAL FLOW FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...28/12Z
ISSUED AT 525 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

WIND WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH TODAY AND MAY BE
STRONG...UP TO 15KTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
VFR THROUGH 00Z. HOWEVER...GIVEN AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECT BR/FG AT SITES BEYOND 00Z. HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY ATTM WITH
MVFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS...THOUGH COULD SEE VISIBILITIES
DROP TO IFR OR LOWER AT TIMES THROUGH 12Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 280908
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
308 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WAA TO CONTINUE...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GIVEN CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...FOR THE DAY. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DAY WILL BE WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER BAND OF FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
GENERATING PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE LOW LEVELS
HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE AND WILL BE SATURATED...BEST FORCING IS JUST
ABOVE THIS LAYER INTO DRY AIR...AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY ATTM.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. HIGHER
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH TODAY AND BY THIS EVENING
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELT INTO
CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED
WITH A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT AND WILL BE RESIDING OVER A COLD
GROUND AND/RESIDUAL SNOW FIELD WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO DES
MOINES TO DENISON LINE. SREF PROBS FOR LESS THAN 1 MILE
VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE. DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ERODE
THE FOG AND STRATUS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT IT STILL MAY LINGER
OVER THE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONTINGENT ON SNOW MELT AND STRATUS SHIELD.
STILL EXPECT HIGHS INTO THE 50S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE
40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE NORTH AND EAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS VEER AND BECOME
LIGHT. AGAIN THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE FOR A PERIOD BEFORE
ERODING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME HINTS AT DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE THE GREATEST AND WHERE SOME WEAK VERTICAL ASCENT WITHIN THE
PROFILE WILL BE PRESENT WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION STILL ONGOING. THE
OVERALL DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR PREFERRED DRIZZLE
GENERATION THUS HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST MOVES THROUGH . AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WILL PASS
ACROSS THE COLD DOME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY GENERATE SCATTERED
FLURRIES. THE LOWEST 250 MB WILL BE QUITE DRY AS THE FORCING
PASSES BY RESULTING IN EVAPORATION OF ANY DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS.
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ONE MORE BOUT
OF COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
A MORE MILD ZONAL FLOW FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT KMCW AND KALO THROUGH
08Z. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR BUT LOCAL CIGS COULD BECOME MVFR
THROUGH 08-09Z. LOWER STRATUS WILL HANG IN THROUGH A PORTION OF
THE MORNING THEN SHOULD LIFT TO VFR. AFT 00Z THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS WHERE SOME MELTING
OCCURS DURING THE DAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280908
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
308 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

WEAK BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH
THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW WAA TO CONTINUE...WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE DAY. GIVEN CURRENT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...FOR THE DAY. MAIN CONCERN FOR THE DAY WILL BE WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NORTH...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. AS
SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...MODELS INDICATE
ANOTHER BAND OF FORCING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. HIGH RES MODELS ARE
GENERATING PRECIPITATION IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. WHILE LOW LEVELS
HAVE AMPLE MOISTURE AND WILL BE SATURATED...BEST FORCING IS JUST
ABOVE THIS LAYER INTO DRY AIR...AND HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY ATTM.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 308 AM CST FRI NOV 28 2014

FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT REMAINS THE PRIMARY
FORECAST CHALLENGE DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. HIGHER
DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH TODAY AND BY THIS EVENING
EXPECT DEWPOINTS TO BE NEAR TO ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. IN ADDITION...EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELT INTO
CENTRAL IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE NEAR SURFACE LAYER. THIS MOISTURE WILL BE TRAPPED
WITH A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT AND WILL BE RESIDING OVER A COLD
GROUND AND/RESIDUAL SNOW FIELD WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. BEST POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE WILL BE ALONG AND NORTH OF AN OTTUMWA TO DES
MOINES TO DENISON LINE. SREF PROBS FOR LESS THAN 1 MILE
VISIBILITIES HAVE REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH THIS DEVELOPMENT. A
WARM FRONT WILL LIFT INTO THE STATE ON SATURDAY AS THE THERMAL
RIDGE MOVES OVER THE STATE. DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL ERODE
THE FOG AND STRATUS FROM THE SOUTHWEST BUT IT STILL MAY LINGER
OVER THE EAST/NORTHEAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONTINGENT ON SNOW MELT AND STRATUS SHIELD.
STILL EXPECT HIGHS INTO THE 50S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 AND IN THE
40 TO 45 DEGREE RANGE NORTH AND EAST.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO IOWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE OVER
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING. FOG IS EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY AS WINDS VEER AND BECOME
LIGHT. AGAIN THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE FOR A PERIOD BEFORE
ERODING WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SOME HINTS AT DRIZZLE
DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHEAST IOWA WHERE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
BE THE GREATEST AND WHERE SOME WEAK VERTICAL ASCENT WITHIN THE
PROFILE WILL BE PRESENT WITH MOISTURE ADVECTION STILL ONGOING. THE
OVERALL DEPTH OF MOISTURE IS LACKING FOR PREFERRED DRIZZLE
GENERATION THUS HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE FALLING THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY AS THE NEXT
ARCTIC BLAST MOVES THROUGH . AN UPPER LEVEL PV ANOMALY WILL PASS
ACROSS THE COLD DOME SUNDAY NIGHT AND MAY GENERATE SCATTERED
FLURRIES. THE LOWEST 250 MB WILL BE QUITE DRY AS THE FORCING
PASSES BY RESULTING IN EVAPORATION OF ANY DESCENDING HYDROMETEORS.
HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES ON MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AS THE
SYSTEM PASSES TO THE EAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. ONE MORE BOUT
OF COLD ADVECTION TUESDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO
A MORE MILD ZONAL FLOW FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT KMCW AND KALO THROUGH
08Z. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR BUT LOCAL CIGS COULD BECOME MVFR
THROUGH 08-09Z. LOWER STRATUS WILL HANG IN THROUGH A PORTION OF
THE MORNING THEN SHOULD LIFT TO VFR. AFT 00Z THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS WHERE SOME MELTING
OCCURS DURING THE DAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 280551
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1151 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MADE A COUPLE TWEAKS TO POPS FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST THAT SHOULD NOW END BY 2 AM. ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST A COUPLE DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO THE EAST AND TEMPS HAVE NOW LEVELED
OFF AND WILL RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND ALBEIT WEAK BUT APPARENTLY ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
WILL PASS ACROSS SOME AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. CAV AND IFA REPORTED BRIEF VSBYS OF 3-5SM IN
LIGHT SNOW. I HAVE BUMPED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IN AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
DUSTING IF ANY ACCUMULATION EVEN OCCURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

LOWERED MINS AND HOURLY TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE STRATUS IS
ABSENT. TEMPS ARE FALLING FAST IN CLEAR SKIES. ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE THE STRATUS RESIDES TEMPS HAVE STALLED. WE SHOULD SEE RISING
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT OFF WITH STRONG WAA
SETTING IN OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE FALL ALREADY INDICATING THE WARM
AIR RETURN. BAND OF SC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF 9SM -SN
TYPE STUFF...CERTAINLY NO MEASURABLE. VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE MN
BORDER HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SATURATION AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. IN ANY CASE...DECENT LIFT IS PRESENT THROUGH THE
DGZ. TEMPS NON-DIURNAL TONIGHT WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IOWA WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN CONCERNS FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND FOG
INTO THE WEEKEND. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WELL UNDERWAY WITH H85/H7
THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER. FRI WILL START A TWO
DAY PERIOD WITH LOW TEMP CONFIDENCE DUE TO WAA OVER THE EVOLVING
SNOW PACK WITH APPRECIABLE ERRORS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GRADIENT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAA SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 30S
NE/40S SW FRI. THIS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 25-35F RANGE BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
BECOMING A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SNOW. 20-
30KT 500M WINDS MAY HOLD THINGS BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT MOST MODEL
SIGNALS INCLUDING WRF NMM/ARW AND SREF SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES
AND CIGS INTO FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY NE
HALF. DEWPOINTS AT AND ABOVE FREEZING WILL CONTINUE TO EAT
SNOWPACK SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MODELS ARE
TOO AGGRESSIVELY HOLDING ONTO THE SNOWPACK SOUTH AND WEST SO MOS
WILL LIKELY NOT PERFORM TOO WELL EXCEPT N CENTRAL IN MOST
APPRECIABLE SNOW DEPTH. THUS HAVE USED PAST EXPERIENCE AND
SOUNDING EXAMINATION TO MIX TEMPS OUT HALFWAY BETWEEN RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND TOP OF INVERSION WHICH ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...50S CENTRAL/SOUTH AND 40S HOLDING ON NORTH BUT STILL
ABOVE MOS.

THE FOG/STRATUS/TEMP BATTLE WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END SUN HOWEVER
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN AS ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE VERY EARLY WITH FALLING OR
STEADY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PASS THROUGH IA SUN NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OR MOISTURE BELOW
3KM SO FORECAST STAYS DRY. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL BEGIN AGAIN MON
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
AND LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...BUT CHANCES NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.
MODEL CONFIDENCE THEN DIMINISHES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING PIECES OF TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BOTH BEEN STEADFAST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY SOLUTIONS
RESPECTIVELY SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE /IF IN DOUBT GO WITH THE
ECMWF / SOLUTION AND KEPT DAYS 6/7 DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT KMCW AND KALO THROUGH
08Z. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR BUT LOCAL CIGS COULD BECOME MVFR
THROUGH 08-09Z. LOWER STRATUS WILL HANG IN THROUGH A PORTION OF
THE MORNING THEN SHOULD LIFT TO VFR. AFT 00Z THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS WHERE SOME MELTING
OCCURS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 280551
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1151 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MADE A COUPLE TWEAKS TO POPS FOR SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST THAT SHOULD NOW END BY 2 AM. ALSO LOWERED OVERNIGHT
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST A COUPLE DEGREES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 951 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO THE EAST AND TEMPS HAVE NOW LEVELED
OFF AND WILL RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND ALBEIT WEAK BUT APPARENTLY ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
WILL PASS ACROSS SOME AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. CAV AND IFA REPORTED BRIEF VSBYS OF 3-5SM IN
LIGHT SNOW. I HAVE BUMPED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IN AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
DUSTING IF ANY ACCUMULATION EVEN OCCURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

LOWERED MINS AND HOURLY TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE STRATUS IS
ABSENT. TEMPS ARE FALLING FAST IN CLEAR SKIES. ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE THE STRATUS RESIDES TEMPS HAVE STALLED. WE SHOULD SEE RISING
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT OFF WITH STRONG WAA
SETTING IN OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE FALL ALREADY INDICATING THE WARM
AIR RETURN. BAND OF SC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF 9SM -SN
TYPE STUFF...CERTAINLY NO MEASURABLE. VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE MN
BORDER HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SATURATION AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. IN ANY CASE...DECENT LIFT IS PRESENT THROUGH THE
DGZ. TEMPS NON-DIURNAL TONIGHT WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IOWA WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN CONCERNS FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND FOG
INTO THE WEEKEND. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WELL UNDERWAY WITH H85/H7
THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER. FRI WILL START A TWO
DAY PERIOD WITH LOW TEMP CONFIDENCE DUE TO WAA OVER THE EVOLVING
SNOW PACK WITH APPRECIABLE ERRORS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GRADIENT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAA SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 30S
NE/40S SW FRI. THIS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 25-35F RANGE BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
BECOMING A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SNOW. 20-
30KT 500M WINDS MAY HOLD THINGS BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT MOST MODEL
SIGNALS INCLUDING WRF NMM/ARW AND SREF SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES
AND CIGS INTO FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY NE
HALF. DEWPOINTS AT AND ABOVE FREEZING WILL CONTINUE TO EAT
SNOWPACK SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MODELS ARE
TOO AGGRESSIVELY HOLDING ONTO THE SNOWPACK SOUTH AND WEST SO MOS
WILL LIKELY NOT PERFORM TOO WELL EXCEPT N CENTRAL IN MOST
APPRECIABLE SNOW DEPTH. THUS HAVE USED PAST EXPERIENCE AND
SOUNDING EXAMINATION TO MIX TEMPS OUT HALFWAY BETWEEN RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND TOP OF INVERSION WHICH ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...50S CENTRAL/SOUTH AND 40S HOLDING ON NORTH BUT STILL
ABOVE MOS.

THE FOG/STRATUS/TEMP BATTLE WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END SUN HOWEVER
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN AS ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE VERY EARLY WITH FALLING OR
STEADY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PASS THROUGH IA SUN NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OR MOISTURE BELOW
3KM SO FORECAST STAYS DRY. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL BEGIN AGAIN MON
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
AND LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...BUT CHANCES NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.
MODEL CONFIDENCE THEN DIMINISHES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING PIECES OF TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BOTH BEEN STEADFAST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY SOLUTIONS
RESPECTIVELY SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE /IF IN DOUBT GO WITH THE
ECMWF / SOLUTION AND KEPT DAYS 6/7 DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...28/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

A BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW WILL AFFECT KMCW AND KALO THROUGH
08Z. CIGS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR BUT LOCAL CIGS COULD BECOME MVFR
THROUGH 08-09Z. LOWER STRATUS WILL HANG IN THROUGH A PORTION OF
THE MORNING THEN SHOULD LIFT TO VFR. AFT 00Z THERE IS A CONCERN
FOR MVFR FOG TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER AREAS WHERE SOME MELTING
OCCURS DURING THE DAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280355
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
955 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO THE EAST AND TEMPS HAVE NOW LEVELED
OFF AND WILL RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND ALBEIT WEAK BUT APPARENTLY ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
WILL PASS ACROSS SOME AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. CAV AND IFA REPORTED BRIEF VSBYS OF 3-5SM IN
LIGHT SNOW. I HAVE BUMPED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IN AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
DUSTING IF ANY ACCUMULATION EVEN OCCURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

LOWERED MINS AND HOURLY TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE STRATUS IS
ABSENT. TEMPS ARE FALLING FAST IN CLEAR SKIES. ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE THE STRATUS RESIDES TEMPS HAVE STALLED. WE SHOULD SEE RISING
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT OFF WITH STRONG WAA
SETTING IN OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE FALL ALREADY INDICATING THE WARM
AIR RETURN. BAND OF SC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF 9SM -SN
TYPE STUFF...CERTAINLY NO MEASURABLE. VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE MN
BORDER HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SATURATION AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. IN ANY CASE...DECENT LIFT IS PRESENT THROUGH THE
DGZ. TEMPS NON-DIURNAL TONIGHT WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IOWA WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN CONCERNS FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND FOG
INTO THE WEEKEND. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WELL UNDERWAY WITH H85/H7
THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER. FRI WILL START A TWO
DAY PERIOD WITH LOW TEMP CONFIDENCE DUE TO WAA OVER THE EVOLVING
SNOW PACK WITH APPRECIABLE ERRORS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GRADIENT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAA SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 30S
NE/40S SW FRI. THIS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 25-35F RANGE BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
BECOMING A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SNOW. 20-
30KT 500M WINDS MAY HOLD THINGS BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT MOST MODEL
SIGNALS INCLUDING WRF NMM/ARW AND SREF SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES
AND CIGS INTO FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY NE
HALF. DEWPOINTS AT AND ABOVE FREEZING WILL CONTINUE TO EAT
SNOWPACK SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MODELS ARE
TOO AGGRESSIVELY HOLDING ONTO THE SNOWPACK SOUTH AND WEST SO MOS
WILL LIKELY NOT PERFORM TOO WELL EXCEPT N CENTRAL IN MOST
APPRECIABLE SNOW DEPTH. THUS HAVE USED PAST EXPERIENCE AND
SOUNDING EXAMINATION TO MIX TEMPS OUT HALFWAY BETWEEN RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND TOP OF INVERSION WHICH ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...50S CENTRAL/SOUTH AND 40S HOLDING ON NORTH BUT STILL
ABOVE MOS.

THE FOG/STRATUS/TEMP BATTLE WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END SUN HOWEVER
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN AS ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE VERY EARLY WITH FALLING OR
STEADY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PASS THROUGH IA SUN NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OR MOISTURE BELOW
3KM SO FORECAST STAYS DRY. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL BEGIN AGAIN MON
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
AND LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...BUT CHANCES NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.
MODEL CONFIDENCE THEN DIMINISHES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING PIECES OF TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BOTH BEEN STEADFAST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY SOLUTIONS
RESPECTIVELY SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE /IF IN DOUBT GO WITH THE
ECMWF / SOLUTION AND KEPT DAYS 6/7 DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10KTS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RETURN. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING VFR STRATUS INTO THE
TAF LOCATIONS WITH SOME SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.  CIGS
SHOULD LIFT AFT 12Z TO AROUND 6KFT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280355
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
955 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO THE EAST AND TEMPS HAVE NOW LEVELED
OFF AND WILL RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND ALBEIT WEAK BUT APPARENTLY ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
WILL PASS ACROSS SOME AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. CAV AND IFA REPORTED BRIEF VSBYS OF 3-5SM IN
LIGHT SNOW. I HAVE BUMPED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IN AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
DUSTING IF ANY ACCUMULATION EVEN OCCURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

LOWERED MINS AND HOURLY TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE STRATUS IS
ABSENT. TEMPS ARE FALLING FAST IN CLEAR SKIES. ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE THE STRATUS RESIDES TEMPS HAVE STALLED. WE SHOULD SEE RISING
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT OFF WITH STRONG WAA
SETTING IN OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE FALL ALREADY INDICATING THE WARM
AIR RETURN. BAND OF SC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF 9SM -SN
TYPE STUFF...CERTAINLY NO MEASURABLE. VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE MN
BORDER HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SATURATION AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. IN ANY CASE...DECENT LIFT IS PRESENT THROUGH THE
DGZ. TEMPS NON-DIURNAL TONIGHT WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IOWA WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN CONCERNS FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND FOG
INTO THE WEEKEND. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WELL UNDERWAY WITH H85/H7
THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER. FRI WILL START A TWO
DAY PERIOD WITH LOW TEMP CONFIDENCE DUE TO WAA OVER THE EVOLVING
SNOW PACK WITH APPRECIABLE ERRORS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GRADIENT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAA SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 30S
NE/40S SW FRI. THIS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 25-35F RANGE BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
BECOMING A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SNOW. 20-
30KT 500M WINDS MAY HOLD THINGS BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT MOST MODEL
SIGNALS INCLUDING WRF NMM/ARW AND SREF SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES
AND CIGS INTO FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY NE
HALF. DEWPOINTS AT AND ABOVE FREEZING WILL CONTINUE TO EAT
SNOWPACK SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MODELS ARE
TOO AGGRESSIVELY HOLDING ONTO THE SNOWPACK SOUTH AND WEST SO MOS
WILL LIKELY NOT PERFORM TOO WELL EXCEPT N CENTRAL IN MOST
APPRECIABLE SNOW DEPTH. THUS HAVE USED PAST EXPERIENCE AND
SOUNDING EXAMINATION TO MIX TEMPS OUT HALFWAY BETWEEN RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND TOP OF INVERSION WHICH ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...50S CENTRAL/SOUTH AND 40S HOLDING ON NORTH BUT STILL
ABOVE MOS.

THE FOG/STRATUS/TEMP BATTLE WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END SUN HOWEVER
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN AS ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE VERY EARLY WITH FALLING OR
STEADY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PASS THROUGH IA SUN NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OR MOISTURE BELOW
3KM SO FORECAST STAYS DRY. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL BEGIN AGAIN MON
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
AND LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...BUT CHANCES NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.
MODEL CONFIDENCE THEN DIMINISHES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING PIECES OF TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BOTH BEEN STEADFAST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY SOLUTIONS
RESPECTIVELY SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE /IF IN DOUBT GO WITH THE
ECMWF / SOLUTION AND KEPT DAYS 6/7 DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10KTS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RETURN. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING VFR STRATUS INTO THE
TAF LOCATIONS WITH SOME SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.  CIGS
SHOULD LIFT AFT 12Z TO AROUND 6KFT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 280355
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
955 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 951 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY COME INTO THE EAST AND TEMPS HAVE NOW LEVELED
OFF AND WILL RISE SLOWLY OVERNIGHT. WITH SHALLOW MOISTURE IN PLACE
AND ALBEIT WEAK BUT APPARENTLY ENOUGH FORCING FOR SOME LIGHT SNOW
WILL PASS ACROSS SOME AREAS NORTH OF HIGHWAY 20 OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF HOURS. CAV AND IFA REPORTED BRIEF VSBYS OF 3-5SM IN
LIGHT SNOW. I HAVE BUMPED POPS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS IN AREAS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST FOR AN HOUR OR TWO TO ACCOUNT FOR A BRIEF
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW. I AM NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING MORE THAN A
DUSTING IF ANY ACCUMULATION EVEN OCCURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 628 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

LOWERED MINS AND HOURLY TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE STRATUS IS
ABSENT. TEMPS ARE FALLING FAST IN CLEAR SKIES. ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE THE STRATUS RESIDES TEMPS HAVE STALLED. WE SHOULD SEE RISING
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT OFF WITH STRONG WAA
SETTING IN OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE FALL ALREADY INDICATING THE WARM
AIR RETURN. BAND OF SC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF 9SM -SN
TYPE STUFF...CERTAINLY NO MEASURABLE. VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE MN
BORDER HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SATURATION AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. IN ANY CASE...DECENT LIFT IS PRESENT THROUGH THE
DGZ. TEMPS NON-DIURNAL TONIGHT WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IOWA WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN CONCERNS FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND FOG
INTO THE WEEKEND. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WELL UNDERWAY WITH H85/H7
THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER. FRI WILL START A TWO
DAY PERIOD WITH LOW TEMP CONFIDENCE DUE TO WAA OVER THE EVOLVING
SNOW PACK WITH APPRECIABLE ERRORS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GRADIENT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAA SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 30S
NE/40S SW FRI. THIS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 25-35F RANGE BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
BECOMING A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SNOW. 20-
30KT 500M WINDS MAY HOLD THINGS BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT MOST MODEL
SIGNALS INCLUDING WRF NMM/ARW AND SREF SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES
AND CIGS INTO FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY NE
HALF. DEWPOINTS AT AND ABOVE FREEZING WILL CONTINUE TO EAT
SNOWPACK SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MODELS ARE
TOO AGGRESSIVELY HOLDING ONTO THE SNOWPACK SOUTH AND WEST SO MOS
WILL LIKELY NOT PERFORM TOO WELL EXCEPT N CENTRAL IN MOST
APPRECIABLE SNOW DEPTH. THUS HAVE USED PAST EXPERIENCE AND
SOUNDING EXAMINATION TO MIX TEMPS OUT HALFWAY BETWEEN RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND TOP OF INVERSION WHICH ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...50S CENTRAL/SOUTH AND 40S HOLDING ON NORTH BUT STILL
ABOVE MOS.

THE FOG/STRATUS/TEMP BATTLE WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END SUN HOWEVER
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN AS ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE VERY EARLY WITH FALLING OR
STEADY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PASS THROUGH IA SUN NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OR MOISTURE BELOW
3KM SO FORECAST STAYS DRY. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL BEGIN AGAIN MON
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
AND LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...BUT CHANCES NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.
MODEL CONFIDENCE THEN DIMINISHES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING PIECES OF TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BOTH BEEN STEADFAST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY SOLUTIONS
RESPECTIVELY SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE /IF IN DOUBT GO WITH THE
ECMWF / SOLUTION AND KEPT DAYS 6/7 DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10KTS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RETURN. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING VFR STRATUS INTO THE
TAF LOCATIONS WITH SOME SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.  CIGS
SHOULD LIFT AFT 12Z TO AROUND 6KFT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280031
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
631 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

LOWERED MINS AND HOURLY TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE STRATUS IS
ABSENT. TEMPS ARE FALLING FAST IN CLEAR SKIES. ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE THE STRATUS RESIDES TEMPS HAVE STALLED. WE SHOULD SEE RISING
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT OFF WITH STRONG WAA
SETTING IN OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE FALL ALREADY INDICATING THE WARM
AIR RETURN. BAND OF SC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF 9SM -SN
TYPE STUFF...CERTAINLY NO MEASURABLE. VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE MN
BORDER HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SATURATION AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. IN ANY CASE...DECENT LIFT IS PRESENT THROUGH THE
DGZ. TEMPS NON-DIURNAL TONIGHT WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IOWA WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN CONCERNS FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND FOG
INTO THE WEEKEND. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WELL UNDERWAY WITH H85/H7
THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER. FRI WILL START A TWO
DAY PERIOD WITH LOW TEMP CONFIDENCE DUE TO WAA OVER THE EVOLVING
SNOW PACK WITH APPRECIABLE ERRORS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GRADIENT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAA SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 30S
NE/40S SW FRI. THIS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 25-35F RANGE BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
BECOMING A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SNOW. 20-
30KT 500M WINDS MAY HOLD THINGS BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT MOST MODEL
SIGNALS INCLUDING WRF NMM/ARW AND SREF SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES
AND CIGS INTO FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY NE
HALF. DEWPOINTS AT AND ABOVE FREEZING WILL CONTINUE TO EAT
SNOWPACK SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MODELS ARE
TOO AGGRESSIVELY HOLDING ONTO THE SNOWPACK SOUTH AND WEST SO MOS
WILL LIKELY NOT PERFORM TOO WELL EXCEPT N CENTRAL IN MOST
APPRECIABLE SNOW DEPTH. THUS HAVE USED PAST EXPERIENCE AND
SOUNDING EXAMINATION TO MIX TEMPS OUT HALFWAY BETWEEN RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND TOP OF INVERSION WHICH ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...50S CENTRAL/SOUTH AND 40S HOLDING ON NORTH BUT STILL
ABOVE MOS.

THE FOG/STRATUS/TEMP BATTLE WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END SUN HOWEVER
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN AS ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE VERY EARLY WITH FALLING OR
STEADY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PASS THROUGH IA SUN NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OR MOISTURE BELOW
3KM SO FORECAST STAYS DRY. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL BEGIN AGAIN MON
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
AND LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...BUT CHANCES NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.
MODEL CONFIDENCE THEN DIMINISHES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING PIECES OF TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BOTH BEEN STEADFAST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY SOLUTIONS
RESPECTIVELY SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE /IF IN DOUBT GO WITH THE
ECMWF / SOLUTION AND KEPT DAYS 6/7 DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10KTS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RETURN. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING VFR STRATUS INTO THE
TAF LOCATIONS WITH SOME SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.  CIGS
SHOULD LIFT AFT 12Z TO AROUND 6KFT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280031
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
631 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 628 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

LOWERED MINS AND HOURLY TEMPS ACROSS THE EAST WHERE THE STRATUS IS
ABSENT. TEMPS ARE FALLING FAST IN CLEAR SKIES. ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE THE STRATUS RESIDES TEMPS HAVE STALLED. WE SHOULD SEE RISING
TEMPS OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT OFF WITH STRONG WAA
SETTING IN OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE FALL ALREADY INDICATING THE WARM
AIR RETURN. BAND OF SC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF 9SM -SN
TYPE STUFF...CERTAINLY NO MEASURABLE. VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE MN
BORDER HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SATURATION AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. IN ANY CASE...DECENT LIFT IS PRESENT THROUGH THE
DGZ. TEMPS NON-DIURNAL TONIGHT WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IOWA WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN CONCERNS FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND FOG
INTO THE WEEKEND. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WELL UNDERWAY WITH H85/H7
THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER. FRI WILL START A TWO
DAY PERIOD WITH LOW TEMP CONFIDENCE DUE TO WAA OVER THE EVOLVING
SNOW PACK WITH APPRECIABLE ERRORS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GRADIENT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAA SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 30S
NE/40S SW FRI. THIS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 25-35F RANGE BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
BECOMING A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SNOW. 20-
30KT 500M WINDS MAY HOLD THINGS BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT MOST MODEL
SIGNALS INCLUDING WRF NMM/ARW AND SREF SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES
AND CIGS INTO FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY NE
HALF. DEWPOINTS AT AND ABOVE FREEZING WILL CONTINUE TO EAT
SNOWPACK SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MODELS ARE
TOO AGGRESSIVELY HOLDING ONTO THE SNOWPACK SOUTH AND WEST SO MOS
WILL LIKELY NOT PERFORM TOO WELL EXCEPT N CENTRAL IN MOST
APPRECIABLE SNOW DEPTH. THUS HAVE USED PAST EXPERIENCE AND
SOUNDING EXAMINATION TO MIX TEMPS OUT HALFWAY BETWEEN RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND TOP OF INVERSION WHICH ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...50S CENTRAL/SOUTH AND 40S HOLDING ON NORTH BUT STILL
ABOVE MOS.

THE FOG/STRATUS/TEMP BATTLE WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END SUN HOWEVER
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN AS ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE VERY EARLY WITH FALLING OR
STEADY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PASS THROUGH IA SUN NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OR MOISTURE BELOW
3KM SO FORECAST STAYS DRY. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL BEGIN AGAIN MON
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
AND LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...BUT CHANCES NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.
MODEL CONFIDENCE THEN DIMINISHES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING PIECES OF TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BOTH BEEN STEADFAST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY SOLUTIONS
RESPECTIVELY SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE /IF IN DOUBT GO WITH THE
ECMWF / SOLUTION AND KEPT DAYS 6/7 DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10KTS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RETURN. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING VFR STRATUS INTO THE
TAF LOCATIONS WITH SOME SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.  CIGS
SHOULD LIFT AFT 12Z TO AROUND 6KFT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 272356
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
555 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT OFF WITH STRONG WAA
SETTING IN OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE FALL ALREADY INDICATING THE WARM
AIR RETURN. BAND OF SC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF 9SM -SN
TYPE STUFF...CERTAINLY NO MEASURABLE. VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE MN
BORDER HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SATURATION AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. IN ANY CASE...DECENT LIFT IS PRESENT THROUGH THE
DGZ. TEMPS NON-DIURNAL TONIGHT WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IOWA WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN CONCERNS FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND FOG
INTO THE WEEKEND. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WELL UNDERWAY WITH H85/H7
THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER. FRI WILL START A TWO
DAY PERIOD WITH LOW TEMP CONFIDENCE DUE TO WAA OVER THE EVOLVING
SNOW PACK WITH APPRECIABLE ERRORS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GRADIENT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAA SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 30S
NE/40S SW FRI. THIS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 25-35F RANGE BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
BECOMING A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SNOW. 20-
30KT 500M WINDS MAY HOLD THINGS BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT MOST MODEL
SIGNALS INCLUDING WRF NMM/ARW AND SREF SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES
AND CIGS INTO FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY NE
HALF. DEWPOINTS AT AND ABOVE FREEZING WILL CONTINUE TO EAT
SNOWPACK SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MODELS ARE
TOO AGGRESSIVELY HOLDING ONTO THE SNOWPACK SOUTH AND WEST SO MOS
WILL LIKELY NOT PERFORM TOO WELL EXCEPT N CENTRAL IN MOST
APPRECIABLE SNOW DEPTH. THUS HAVE USED PAST EXPERIENCE AND
SOUNDING EXAMINATION TO MIX TEMPS OUT HALFWAY BETWEEN RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND TOP OF INVERSION WHICH ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...50S CENTRAL/SOUTH AND 40S HOLDING ON NORTH BUT STILL
ABOVE MOS.

THE FOG/STRATUS/TEMP BATTLE WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END SUN HOWEVER
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN AS ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE VERY EARLY WITH FALLING OR
STEADY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PASS THROUGH IA SUN NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OR MOISTURE BELOW
3KM SO FORECAST STAYS DRY. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL BEGIN AGAIN MON
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
AND LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...BUT CHANCES NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.
MODEL CONFIDENCE THEN DIMINISHES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING PIECES OF TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BOTH BEEN STEADFAST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY SOLUTIONS
RESPECTIVELY SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE /IF IN DOUBT GO WITH THE
ECMWF / SOLUTION AND KEPT DAYS 6/7 DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...28/00Z
ISSUED AT 555 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY AT 10KTS ALLOWING WARMER AIR TO RETURN. MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING VFR STRATUS INTO THE
TAF LOCATIONS WITH SOME SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES POSSIBLE.  CIGS
SHOULD LIFT AFT 12Z TO AROUND 6KFT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 272151
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
351 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT OFF WITH STRONG WAA
SETTING IN OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE FALL ALREADY INDICATING THE WARM
AIR RETURN. BAND OF SC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF 9SM -SN
TYPE STUFF...CERTAINLY NO MEASURABLE. VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE MN
BORDER HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SATURATION AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. IN ANY CASE...DECENT LIFT IS PRESENT THROUGH THE
DGZ. TEMPS NON-DIURNAL TONIGHT WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IOWA WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN CONCERNS FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND FOG
INTO THE WEEKEND. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WELL UNDERWAY WITH H85/H7
THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER. FRI WILL START A TWO
DAY PERIOD WITH LOW TEMP CONFIDENCE DUE TO WAA OVER THE EVOLVING
SNOW PACK WITH APPRECIABLE ERRORS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GRADIENT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAA SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 30S
NE/40S SW FRI. THIS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 25-35F RANGE BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
BECOMING A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SNOW. 20-
30KT 500M WINDS MAY HOLD THINGS BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT MOST MODEL
SIGNALS INCLUDING WRF NMM/ARW AND SREF SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES
AND CIGS INTO FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY NE
HALF. DEWPOINTS AT AND ABOVE FREEZING WILL CONTINUE TO EAT
SNOWPACK SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MODELS ARE
TOO AGGRESSIVELY HOLDING ONTO THE SNOWPACK SOUTH AND WEST SO MOS
WILL LIKELY NOT PERFORM TOO WELL EXCEPT N CENTRAL IN MOST
APPRECIABLE SNOW DEPTH. THUS HAVE USED PAST EXPERIENCE AND
SOUNDING EXAMINATION TO MIX TEMPS OUT HALFWAY BETWEEN RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND TOP OF INVERSION WHICH ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...50S CENTRAL/SOUTH AND 40S HOLDING ON NORTH BUT STILL
ABOVE MOS.

THE FOG/STRATUS/TEMP BATTLE WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END SUN HOWEVER
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN AS ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE VERY EARLY WITH FALLING OR
STEADY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PASS THROUGH IA SUN NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OR MOISTURE BELOW
3KM SO FORECAST STAYS DRY. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL BEGIN AGAIN MON
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
AND LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...BUT CHANCES NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.
MODEL CONFIDENCE THEN DIMINISHES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING PIECES OF TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BOTH BEEN STEADFAST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY SOLUTIONS
RESPECTIVELY SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE /IF IN DOUBT GO WITH THE
ECMWF / SOLUTION AND KEPT DAYS 6/7 DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. BAND OF VFR STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...STRATUS BAND WILL ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
STATE WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRI INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS
AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...MS NOV 14




000
FXUS63 KDMX 272151
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
351 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER IOWA WILL DRIFT OFF WITH STRONG WAA
SETTING IN OVERNIGHT. PRESSURE FALL ALREADY INDICATING THE WARM
AIR RETURN. BAND OF SC WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE STATE
TONIGHT. HAVE INTRODUCED FLURRIES ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT. THOUGH
THE LOW LEVELS ARE DRY...WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A LOT OF 9SM -SN
TYPE STUFF...CERTAINLY NO MEASURABLE. VERY LOW POPS ALONG THE MN
BORDER HOWEVER WHERE THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF SATURATION AND
DEEPER MOISTURE. IN ANY CASE...DECENT LIFT IS PRESENT THROUGH THE
DGZ. TEMPS NON-DIURNAL TONIGHT WITH RISING TEMPS THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS THE COLD AIR RETREATS EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CST THU NOV 27 2014

IOWA WEATHER WILL BE INFLUENCED BY FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAIN CONCERNS FLUCTUATING TEMPS AND FOG
INTO THE WEEKEND. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION. PERIOD WILL
BEGIN WITH WARM AIR ADVECTION /WAA/ WELL UNDERWAY WITH H85/H7
THETA-E ADVECTION THROUGH THE MS VALLEY AND SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS.
ANY PRECIPITATION IN THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING SHOULD REMAIN JUST
NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA HOWEVER. FRI WILL START A TWO
DAY PERIOD WITH LOW TEMP CONFIDENCE DUE TO WAA OVER THE EVOLVING
SNOW PACK WITH APPRECIABLE ERRORS POSSIBLE ALONG THE GRADIENT. THE
STRENGTH OF THE WAA SHOULD BE ABLE TO BOOST TEMPS INTO THE 30S
NE/40S SW FRI. THIS PERSISTENT SLY FLOW WILL ALSO BOOST DEWPOINTS
INTO THE 25-35F RANGE BY FRI NIGHT WITH ADVECTION FOG/STRATUS
BECOMING A CONCERN...ESPECIALLY OVER WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SNOW. 20-
30KT 500M WINDS MAY HOLD THINGS BACK SLIGHTLY...BUT MOST MODEL
SIGNALS INCLUDING WRF NMM/ARW AND SREF SUGGEST LOW VISIBILITIES
AND CIGS INTO FRI NIGHT AND EARLY SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY NE
HALF. DEWPOINTS AT AND ABOVE FREEZING WILL CONTINUE TO EAT
SNOWPACK SAT WITH TEMPS CONTINUING TO BE PROBLEMATIC. MODELS ARE
TOO AGGRESSIVELY HOLDING ONTO THE SNOWPACK SOUTH AND WEST SO MOS
WILL LIKELY NOT PERFORM TOO WELL EXCEPT N CENTRAL IN MOST
APPRECIABLE SNOW DEPTH. THUS HAVE USED PAST EXPERIENCE AND
SOUNDING EXAMINATION TO MIX TEMPS OUT HALFWAY BETWEEN RAW SURFACE
TEMPS AND TOP OF INVERSION WHICH ENDS UP VERY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST...50S CENTRAL/SOUTH AND 40S HOLDING ON NORTH BUT STILL
ABOVE MOS.

THE FOG/STRATUS/TEMP BATTLE WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END SUN HOWEVER
WITH A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE SUN AS ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS SUN SHOULD BE VERY EARLY WITH FALLING OR
STEADY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. A RIBBON OF MID LEVEL FORCING WILL
PASS THROUGH IA SUN NIGHT BUT WITH LITTLE SUPPORT OR MOISTURE BELOW
3KM SO FORECAST STAYS DRY. RETURN FLOW AND WAA WILL BEGIN AGAIN MON
NIGHT. THERE COULD BE SOME VERY LIGHT PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE
AND LONG WAVE TROUGH PASSAGE TUE...ESPECIALLY IF THE ECMWF IS
CORRECT...BUT CHANCES NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO MENTION AT THE MOMENT.
MODEL CONFIDENCE THEN DIMINISHES TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH
GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE PUSHING PIECES OF TROUGH OFF THE CA COAST INTO
AND THROUGH THE ROCKIES INTO THE MO VALLEY. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
BOTH BEEN STEADFAST WITH THEIR RESPECTIVE WET/DRY SOLUTIONS
RESPECTIVELY SO HAVE LEANED TOWARD THE /IF IN DOUBT GO WITH THE
ECMWF / SOLUTION AND KEPT DAYS 6/7 DRY FOR THE TIME BEING.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. BAND OF VFR STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...STRATUS BAND WILL ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
STATE WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRI INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS
AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS NOV 14
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...MS NOV 14





000
FXUS63 KDMX 271750
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1150 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES ARE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES
AND STIFF WINDS EARLY WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR -10 TO -25 FOR
A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE... AND FRESH SNOW PACK HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN STEADY TO
RISING TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN IOWA AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELTING
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE LEADING TO A
MORE EFFICIENT MELTING PROCESS. H85 TEMPERATURES BY LATE FRIDAY
WILL REACH 6C TO 10C AND WILL CREATE A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN ADDITION TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
MELTING WILL BE TRAPPED NEAR SURFACE DUE TO THE ENHANCED
INVERSION. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME RESIDUAL SNOW LEFT AND LIKELY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH AREAS BECOMING DENSE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW PERSISTENT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A 60 OR TWO. THE NORTHEAST WOULD BE THE LAST TO
SCATTER OUT AND THUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 40
FOR HIGHS. A SHALLOW ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NW
IOWA AND BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER THERMAL RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WASHOUT THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND BRING
AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. BAND OF VFR STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...STRATUS BAND WILL ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
STATE WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRI INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS
AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...MS NOV 14




000
FXUS63 KDMX 271750
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1150 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES ARE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES
AND STIFF WINDS EARLY WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR -10 TO -25 FOR
A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE... AND FRESH SNOW PACK HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN STEADY TO
RISING TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN IOWA AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELTING
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE LEADING TO A
MORE EFFICIENT MELTING PROCESS. H85 TEMPERATURES BY LATE FRIDAY
WILL REACH 6C TO 10C AND WILL CREATE A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN ADDITION TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
MELTING WILL BE TRAPPED NEAR SURFACE DUE TO THE ENHANCED
INVERSION. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME RESIDUAL SNOW LEFT AND LIKELY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH AREAS BECOMING DENSE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW PERSISTENT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A 60 OR TWO. THE NORTHEAST WOULD BE THE LAST TO
SCATTER OUT AND THUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 40
FOR HIGHS. A SHALLOW ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NW
IOWA AND BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER THERMAL RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WASHOUT THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND BRING
AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/18Z
ISSUED AT 1146 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

HIGH PRESSURE OVER IOWA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHEASTERLY TONIGHT. BAND OF VFR STRATUS WILL OVERSPREAD THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...HOWEVER VFR
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO PREVAIL.

OUTLOOK...STRATUS BAND WILL ADVANCE NORTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
STATE WITH MILD AND DRY CONDITIONS FOR FRI INTO SAT. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS
AND SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED BY SUNDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...MS NOV 14





000
FXUS63 KDMX 271116
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
516 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES ARE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES
AND STIFF WINDS EARLY WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR -10 TO -25 FOR
A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE... AND FRESH SNOW PACK HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN STEADY TO
RISING TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN IOWA AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELTING
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE LEADING TO A
MORE EFFICIENT MELTING PROCESS. H85 TEMPERATURES BY LATE FRIDAY
WILL REACH 6C TO 10C AND WILL CREATE A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN ADDITION TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
MELTING WILL BE TRAPPED NEAR SURFACE DUE TO THE ENHANCED
INVERSION. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME RESIDUAL SNOW LEFT AND LIKELY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH AREAS BECOMING DENSE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW PERSISTENT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A 60 OR TWO. THE NORTHEAST WOULD BE THE LAST TO
SCATTER OUT AND THUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 40
FOR HIGHS. A SHALLOW ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NW
IOWA AND BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER THERMAL RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WASHOUT THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND BRING
AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF KOTM THROUGH
BEGINNING OF PERIOD. BEHIND STRATUS CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR ACROSS
SITES THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...AND MAY BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BEYOND 00Z. NORTHERN
SITES...KFOD/KMCW/KALO...COULD SEE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
BEYOND 00Z WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS NORTH...THOUGH
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION ATTM WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
VFR.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 271116
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
516 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES ARE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES
AND STIFF WINDS EARLY WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR -10 TO -25 FOR
A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE... AND FRESH SNOW PACK HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN STEADY TO
RISING TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN IOWA AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELTING
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE LEADING TO A
MORE EFFICIENT MELTING PROCESS. H85 TEMPERATURES BY LATE FRIDAY
WILL REACH 6C TO 10C AND WILL CREATE A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN ADDITION TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
MELTING WILL BE TRAPPED NEAR SURFACE DUE TO THE ENHANCED
INVERSION. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME RESIDUAL SNOW LEFT AND LIKELY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH AREAS BECOMING DENSE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW PERSISTENT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A 60 OR TWO. THE NORTHEAST WOULD BE THE LAST TO
SCATTER OUT AND THUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 40
FOR HIGHS. A SHALLOW ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NW
IOWA AND BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER THERMAL RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WASHOUT THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND BRING
AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/12Z
ISSUED AT 513 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

BAND OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OUT OF KOTM THROUGH
BEGINNING OF PERIOD. BEHIND STRATUS CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR ACROSS
SITES THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH THROUGHOUT THE
PERIOD...AND MAY BECOME GUSTY AGAIN BEYOND 00Z. NORTHERN
SITES...KFOD/KMCW/KALO...COULD SEE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS
BEYOND 00Z WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHING ACROSS NORTH...THOUGH
HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION ATTM WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
VFR.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 270928
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
328 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES ARE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES
AND STIFF WINDS EARLY WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR -10 TO -25 FOR
A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE... AND FRESH SNOW PACK HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN STEADY TO
RISING TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN IOWA AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELTING
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE LEADING TO A
MORE EFFICIENT MELTING PROCESS. H85 TEMPERATURES BY LATE FRIDAY
WILL REACH 6C TO 10C AND WILL CREATE A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN ADDITION TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
MELTING WILL BE TRAPPED NEAR SURFACE DUE TO THE ENHANCED
INVERSION. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME RESIDUAL SNOW LEFT AND LIKELY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH AREAS BECOMING DENSE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW PERSISTENT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A 60 OR TWO. THE NORTHEAST WOULD BE THE LAST TO
SCATTER OUT AND THUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 40
FOR HIGHS. A SHALLOW ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NW
IOWA AND BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER THERMAL RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WASHOUT THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND BRING
AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE LAST OF THE SNOW WILL EXIT KOTM BY 07Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE TAF LOCATIONS BRINGING IN GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH
12Z. THERE WILL BE CLEARING AS WELL BUT THE SOUTHEAST WILL HOLD
ONTO THE IFR STRATUS THE LONGEST. KFOD AND KMCW SHOULD BECOME MVFR
OR VFR BY 09Z AND ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR BY 14Z. SFC WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN AND BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
THEY WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 270928
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
328 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES ARE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BRING MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA...EARLY MORNING TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR
OR BELOW ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN IOWA. GIVEN COLD TEMPERATURES
AND STIFF WINDS EARLY WIND CHILL VALUES WILL BE NEAR -10 TO -25 FOR
A FEW HOURS IN THE MORNING. AM NOT ANTICIPATING WIDESPREAD OR
PROLONGED PERIODS OF WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA...AND THEREFORE WILL NOT ISSUE FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM THROUGH THE DAY...THOUGH GIVEN COLD AIR IN PLACE...INCREASING
CLOUDS LATE... AND FRESH SNOW PACK HAVE DROPPED TEMPERATURES A FEW
DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 AM CST THU NOV 27 2014

STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING OVER WESTERN IOWA BY
EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE SFC HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS QUICKLY TO THE
SOUTHEAST. THE THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
OVERNIGHT. SURFACE WARM ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN STEADY TO
RISING TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE EVENING. THE INCREASING MID
LEVEL MOISTURE IN ADDITION TO A SHORT WAVE PASSING ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MINNESOTA WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW OVER
FAR NORTHERN IOWA AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES SOUTH INTO CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOWER 30S
NORTHEAST TO THE LOW TO MID 40S SOUTH. EXPECT GOOD SNOW MELTING
CONDITIONS OVER CENTRAL IOWA AS DEWPOINTS INCREASE LEADING TO A
MORE EFFICIENT MELTING PROCESS. H85 TEMPERATURES BY LATE FRIDAY
WILL REACH 6C TO 10C AND WILL CREATE A STRONG INVERSION ALOFT. THE
INCREASING DEWPOINTS IN ADDITION TO ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
MELTING WILL BE TRAPPED NEAR SURFACE DUE TO THE ENHANCED
INVERSION. GROUND TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE RELATIVELY COOL AT
THIS TIME WITH SOME RESIDUAL SNOW LEFT AND LIKELY WILL RESULT IN A
WIDESPREAD FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH AREAS BECOMING DENSE. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW PERSISTENT THE FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH OF SOUTHWEST IOWA SHOULD SCATTER OUT AS SOUTHWEST
WINDS DEVELOP WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 50S AND
CANNOT RULE OUT A 60 OR TWO. THE NORTHEAST WOULD BE THE LAST TO
SCATTER OUT AND THUS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR TO JUST ABOVE 40
FOR HIGHS. A SHALLOW ARCTIC BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO NW
IOWA AND BEGIN TO UNDERCUT THE UPPER THERMAL RIDGE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO EXPAND ONCE AGAIN IN ADVANCE OF THE BOUNDARY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY
WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING MUCH OF THE DAY. THE ARRIVAL OF THE
COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL WASHOUT THE MOIST LOW LEVELS AND BRING
AN END TO THE FOG POTENTIAL. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
MONDAY FOLLOWED BY RETURN FLOW AND WARMER CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE LAST OF THE SNOW WILL EXIT KOTM BY 07Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE TAF LOCATIONS BRINGING IN GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH
12Z. THERE WILL BE CLEARING AS WELL BUT THE SOUTHEAST WILL HOLD
ONTO THE IFR STRATUS THE LONGEST. KFOD AND KMCW SHOULD BECOME MVFR
OR VFR BY 09Z AND ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR BY 14Z. SFC WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN AND BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
THEY WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 270544
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1144 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FAST MOVING PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MO MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ON BY LATE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LITTLE CHANGES WERE MADE IN THIS UPDATE. THE LAST OF THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL EXIT THE SE CWA SHORTLY WHICH IS WELL TRENDED. THE CHALLENGE
WILL BE CLOUD COVER AND HOW FAST AND HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLEARING
WILL GET OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A LOT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE
BUT THE HIGH IS BRINGING DOWN SOME VERY COLD AND DRY AIR. THE FAR
NORTH AND WEST WILL CLEAR FIRST AND CEILINGS MAY LIFT ELSEWHERE
BUT THE LOW CLOUDS ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST SHOULD LINGER THROUGH 12Z.
TEMPS ACROSS THE NORTH REMAIN VERY COLD WITH WIND CHILLS FROM -15
TO -20 BY MORNING. IF CLOUDS CLEAR FASTER FURTHER TO THE
SOUTHEAST...TEMPS AND WIND CHILLS WILL HAVE TO BE REVISITED AS
THEY MAY BE TOO WARM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LAST BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL FROM PERRY THROUGH THE DES MOINES
METRO AREA SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE BAND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY 03Z WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH. THE
BAND IS WEAKENING AS IT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST SO MODERATE SNOWFALL
IS BECOMING MORE HIT OR MISS. POPS WERE INCREASED IN THE SNOW
AREAS TO REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TWO MAIN BANDS OF SNOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WAA
SNOWFALL PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT DROPPING AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THE WAA BAND THEN STALLING AND
PIVOTING AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA DURING THE DAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...HAS LED TO SOME HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 7 INCHES. OVERALL AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE BACK EDGE
ALREADY SITUATED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ESTHERVILLE TO
DENISON. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RANGING AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE
MILE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OR
IMPROVE AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL INTO THE
STATE IN EARNEST. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA QUICKLY WILL ALLOW FOR THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX QUICKLY
THUS DIMINISHING THE GUSTY WIND THREAT SOME. OVERALL IN AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY HAD WINDS PICK UP DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH
BLOWING SNOW ON THE WEB CAMS. THEREFORE DO NOT FORESEE THERE TO BE
MUCH AS OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

A WEAK IMPULSE HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NE SD
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THROUGH SRN MN AND NRN IA LATE THIS
EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART ANY FORCING LOOKS TO DIMINISH SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS WEAK IMPULSE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE IT HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE CWA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BUT WILL BE
TEMPERED SOME BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
CLEARING LATE TONIGHT SO LOWS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND AROUND 10 TO 15
ABOVE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW
WITH FRESH SNOW IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WINDS LIGHT...LIMITING
MIXING. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOMORROW NIGHT...STRONG WAA WILL
BEGIN. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS STEADY OR RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE. WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMEST AIR WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY. GFS AND EC BOTH
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE +16 PASSING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
IA DURING THE DAY SAT. BUMPED UP TEMPS FOR THAT PERIOD ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE MELTED BY THEN. THE OTHER
POSSIBLE ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG FOR FORM AND
NOT BREAK. I WOULD HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES OF
NOT FOR THESE TWO CONSIDERATIONS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS QUITE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS WITH A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...27/06Z
ISSUED AT 1135 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE LAST OF THE SNOW WILL EXIT KOTM BY 07Z. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE TAF LOCATIONS BRINGING IN GUSTY NW WINDS THROUGH
12Z. THERE WILL BE CLEARING AS WELL BUT THE SOUTHEAST WILL HOLD
ONTO THE IFR STRATUS THE LONGEST. KFOD AND KMCW SHOULD BECOME MVFR
OR VFR BY 09Z AND ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL BE VFR BY 14Z. SFC WINDS
WILL DIMINISH AS THE HIGH SETTLES IN AND BY LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD
THEY WILL EVENTUALLY SWITCH TO THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SYNOPSIS...MS NOV 14
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 270037
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FAST MOVING PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MO MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ON BY LATE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LAST BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL FROM PERRY THROUGH THE DES MOINES
METRO AREA SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE BAND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY 03Z WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH. THE
BAND IS WEAKENING AS IT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST SO MODERATE SNOWFALL
IS BECOMING MORE HIT OR MISS. POPS WERE INCREASED IN THE SNOW
AREAS TO REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TWO MAIN BANDS OF SNOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WAA
SNOWFALL PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT DROPPING AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THE WAA BAND THEN STALLING AND
PIVOTING AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA DURING THE DAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...HAS LED TO SOME HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 7 INCHES. OVERALL AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE BACK EDGE
ALREADY SITUATED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ESTHERVILLE TO
DENISON. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RANGING AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE
MILE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OR
IMPROVE AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL INTO THE
STATE IN EARNEST. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA QUICKLY WILL ALLOW FOR THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX QUICKLY
THUS DIMINISHING THE GUSTY WIND THREAT SOME. OVERALL IN AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY HAD WINDS PICK UP DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH
BLOWING SNOW ON THE WEB CAMS. THEREFORE DO NOT FORESEE THERE TO BE
MUCH AS OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

A WEAK IMPULSE HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NE SD
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THROUGH SRN MN AND NRN IA LATE THIS
EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART ANY FORCING LOOKS TO DIMINISH SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS WEAK IMPULSE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE IT HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE CWA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BUT WILL BE
TEMPERED SOME BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
CLEARING LATE TONIGHT SO LOWS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND AROUND 10 TO 15
ABOVE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW
WITH FRESH SNOW IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WINDS LIGHT...LIMITING
MIXING. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOMORROW NIGHT...STRONG WAA WILL
BEGIN. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS STEADY OR RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE. WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMEST AIR WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY. GFS AND EC BOTH
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE +16 PASSING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
IA DURING THE DAY SAT. BUMPED UP TEMPS FOR THAT PERIOD ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE MELTED BY THEN. THE OTHER
POSSIBLE ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG FOR FORM AND
NOT BREAK. I WOULD HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES OF
NOT FOR THESE TWO CONSIDERATIONS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS QUITE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS WITH A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF MODERATE SNOW TO IMPACT MAINLY KDSM AND KOTM THROUGH 02Z
THEN SYSTEM MOVES OUT. IFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE
THROUGH 10-11Z WITH CLEARING SOONER FM KMCW TO KFOD.  SFC WIND WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR COMES IN.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF 10-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 09Z. VFR COND
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AFT 16Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SYNOPSIS...MS NOV 14
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 270037
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
637 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FAST MOVING PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MO MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ON BY LATE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

LAST BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL FROM PERRY THROUGH THE DES MOINES
METRO AREA SHIFTING SOUTHEAST. THE BAND SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA
BY 03Z WITH ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND A HALF INCH. THE
BAND IS WEAKENING AS IT IS MOVING SOUTHEAST SO MODERATE SNOWFALL
IS BECOMING MORE HIT OR MISS. POPS WERE INCREASED IN THE SNOW
AREAS TO REFLECT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TWO MAIN BANDS OF SNOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WAA
SNOWFALL PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT DROPPING AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THE WAA BAND THEN STALLING AND
PIVOTING AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA DURING THE DAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...HAS LED TO SOME HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 7 INCHES. OVERALL AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE BACK EDGE
ALREADY SITUATED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ESTHERVILLE TO
DENISON. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RANGING AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE
MILE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OR
IMPROVE AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL INTO THE
STATE IN EARNEST. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA QUICKLY WILL ALLOW FOR THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX QUICKLY
THUS DIMINISHING THE GUSTY WIND THREAT SOME. OVERALL IN AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY HAD WINDS PICK UP DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH
BLOWING SNOW ON THE WEB CAMS. THEREFORE DO NOT FORESEE THERE TO BE
MUCH AS OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

A WEAK IMPULSE HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NE SD
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THROUGH SRN MN AND NRN IA LATE THIS
EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART ANY FORCING LOOKS TO DIMINISH SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS WEAK IMPULSE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE IT HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE CWA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BUT WILL BE
TEMPERED SOME BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
CLEARING LATE TONIGHT SO LOWS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND AROUND 10 TO 15
ABOVE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW
WITH FRESH SNOW IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WINDS LIGHT...LIMITING
MIXING. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOMORROW NIGHT...STRONG WAA WILL
BEGIN. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS STEADY OR RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE. WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMEST AIR WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY. GFS AND EC BOTH
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE +16 PASSING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
IA DURING THE DAY SAT. BUMPED UP TEMPS FOR THAT PERIOD ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE MELTED BY THEN. THE OTHER
POSSIBLE ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG FOR FORM AND
NOT BREAK. I WOULD HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES OF
NOT FOR THESE TWO CONSIDERATIONS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS QUITE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS WITH A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF MODERATE SNOW TO IMPACT MAINLY KDSM AND KOTM THROUGH 02Z
THEN SYSTEM MOVES OUT. IFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE
THROUGH 10-11Z WITH CLEARING SOONER FM KMCW TO KFOD.  SFC WIND WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR COMES IN.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF 10-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH 09Z. VFR COND
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AFT 16Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SYNOPSIS...MS NOV 14
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 262343
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
535 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FAST MOVING PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MO MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ON BY LATE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TWO MAIN BANDS OF SNOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WAA
SNOWFALL PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT DROPPING AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THE WAA BAND THEN STALLING AND
PIVOTING AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA DURING THE DAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...HAS LED TO SOME HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 7 INCHES. OVERALL AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE BACK EDGE
ALREADY SITUATED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ESTHERVILLE TO
DENISON. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RANGING AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE
MILE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OR
IMPROVE AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL INTO THE
STATE IN EARNEST. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA QUICKLY WILL ALLOW FOR THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX QUICKLY
THUS DIMINISHING THE GUSTY WIND THREAT SOME. OVERALL IN AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY HAD WINDS PICK UP DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH
BLOWING SNOW ON THE WEB CAMS. THEREFORE DO NOT FORESEE THERE TO BE
MUCH AS OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

A WEAK IMPULSE HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NE SD
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THROUGH SRN MN AND NRN IA LATE THIS
EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART ANY FORCING LOOKS TO DIMINISH SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS WEAK IMPULSE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE IT HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE CWA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BUT WILL BE
TEMPERED SOME BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
CLEARING LATE TONIGHT SO LOWS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND AROUND 10 TO 15
ABOVE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW
WITH FRESH SNOW IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WINDS LIGHT...LIMITING
MIXING. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOMORROW NIGHT...STRONG WAA WILL
BEGIN. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS STEADY OR RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE. WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMEST AIR WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY. GFS AND EC BOTH
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE +16 PASSING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
IA DURING THE DAY SAT. BUMPED UP TEMPS FOR THAT PERIOD ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE MELTED BY THEN. THE OTHER
POSSIBLE ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG FOR FORM AND
NOT BREAK. I WOULD HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES OF
NOT FOR THESE TWO CONSIDERATIONS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS QUITE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS WITH A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF MODERATE SNOW TO IMPACT MAINLY KDSM AND KOTM THROUGH 02Z
THEN SYSTEM MOVES OUT. IFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE
THROUGH 10-11Z WITH CLEARING SOONER FM KMCW TO KFOD.  SFC WIND WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR COMES IN.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF 10-20KTS WITH HIR GUSTS THROUGH 09Z.  VFR COND
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AFT 16Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY- HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-POCAHONTAS-
POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH- WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS NOV 14
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 262343
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
535 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FAST MOVING PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MO MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ON BY LATE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TWO MAIN BANDS OF SNOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WAA
SNOWFALL PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT DROPPING AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THE WAA BAND THEN STALLING AND
PIVOTING AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA DURING THE DAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...HAS LED TO SOME HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 7 INCHES. OVERALL AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE BACK EDGE
ALREADY SITUATED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ESTHERVILLE TO
DENISON. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RANGING AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE
MILE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OR
IMPROVE AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL INTO THE
STATE IN EARNEST. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA QUICKLY WILL ALLOW FOR THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX QUICKLY
THUS DIMINISHING THE GUSTY WIND THREAT SOME. OVERALL IN AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY HAD WINDS PICK UP DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH
BLOWING SNOW ON THE WEB CAMS. THEREFORE DO NOT FORESEE THERE TO BE
MUCH AS OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

A WEAK IMPULSE HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NE SD
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THROUGH SRN MN AND NRN IA LATE THIS
EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART ANY FORCING LOOKS TO DIMINISH SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS WEAK IMPULSE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE IT HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE CWA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BUT WILL BE
TEMPERED SOME BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
CLEARING LATE TONIGHT SO LOWS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND AROUND 10 TO 15
ABOVE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW
WITH FRESH SNOW IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WINDS LIGHT...LIMITING
MIXING. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOMORROW NIGHT...STRONG WAA WILL
BEGIN. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS STEADY OR RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE. WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMEST AIR WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY. GFS AND EC BOTH
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE +16 PASSING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
IA DURING THE DAY SAT. BUMPED UP TEMPS FOR THAT PERIOD ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE MELTED BY THEN. THE OTHER
POSSIBLE ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG FOR FORM AND
NOT BREAK. I WOULD HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES OF
NOT FOR THESE TWO CONSIDERATIONS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS QUITE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS WITH A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...27/00Z
ISSUED AT 535 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

BAND OF MODERATE SNOW TO IMPACT MAINLY KDSM AND KOTM THROUGH 02Z
THEN SYSTEM MOVES OUT. IFR CIGS REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SE
THROUGH 10-11Z WITH CLEARING SOONER FM KMCW TO KFOD.  SFC WIND WILL
INCREASE THIS EVENING AS COLDER AIR COMES IN.  WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
ON THE ORDER OF 10-20KTS WITH HIR GUSTS THROUGH 09Z.  VFR COND
SHOULD BE IN PLACE AFT 16Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY- HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-POCAHONTAS-
POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH- WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS NOV 14
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 262141
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
341 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

A FAST MOVING PATTERN WITH LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST MO MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA AS COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ON BY LATE THURSDAY.
THE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST WITH SOUTH FLOW BECOMING
ESTABLISHED THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL PASS SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

TWO MAIN BANDS OF SNOW THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA WITH THE WAA
SNOWFALL PUSHING THROUGH OVERNIGHT DROPPING AROUND 2-4 INCHES OF
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...AND THE WAA BAND THEN STALLING AND
PIVOTING AROUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA DURING THE DAY.
WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE ALLOWING SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE
DAY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA...HAS LED TO SOME HIGHER THAN EXPECTED SNOW
TOTALS AROUND 7 INCHES. OVERALL AS THE WHOLE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
DROP SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA...THE SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH THE BACK EDGE
ALREADY SITUATED ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM ESTHERVILLE TO
DENISON. VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN RANGING AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE
MILE IN THE HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW...AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE OR
IMPROVE AS THE SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH. NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALREADY
INCREASED ACROSS THE WESTERN CWA...AND WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA AS THE COLDER AIR BEGINS TO SPILL INTO THE
STATE IN EARNEST. HOWEVER AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD INTO THE
AREA QUICKLY WILL ALLOW FOR THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TO RELAX QUICKLY
THUS DIMINISHING THE GUSTY WIND THREAT SOME. OVERALL IN AREAS THAT
HAVE ALREADY HAD WINDS PICK UP DO NOT SEE MUCH OF AN ISSUE WITH
BLOWING SNOW ON THE WEB CAMS. THEREFORE DO NOT FORESEE THERE TO BE
MUCH AS OVERALL INTENSITY OF THE GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

A WEAK IMPULSE HAS ALSO BROUGHT SOME LIGHT SNOW TO PORTIONS OF NE SD
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PUSH THROUGH SRN MN AND NRN IA LATE THIS
EVENING. FOR THE MOST PART ANY FORCING LOOKS TO DIMINISH SO DO NOT
EXPECT ANY ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL FROM THIS WEAK IMPULSE LATER TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY BECAUSE IT HAS ALREADY SHOWN SIGNS OF DIMINISHING. AS
COLDER AIR PUSHES INTO THE CWA...TEMPS SHOULD FALL BUT WILL BE
TEMPERED SOME BY THE CLOUD COVER. HOWEVER SHOULD STILL SEE SOME
CLEARING LATE TONIGHT SO LOWS AROUND ZERO NORTH AND AROUND 10 TO 15
ABOVE SOUTH.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 326 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

AFTER A COLD NIGHT TONIGHT...TEMPS WILL BE SLOW TO RISE TOMORROW
WITH FRESH SNOW IN MANY LOCATIONS AND WINDS LIGHT...LIMITING
MIXING. AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF TOMORROW NIGHT...STRONG WAA WILL
BEGIN. EXPECT TO SEE TEMPS STEADY OR RISING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND
WENT WITH A NON-DIURNAL TEMP TRACE. WARMING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH TEMPS GETTING BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

THE WARMEST AIR WILL PASS OVER THE STATE FRIDAY. GFS AND EC BOTH
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE +16 PASSING OVER SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
IA DURING THE DAY SAT. BUMPED UP TEMPS FOR THAT PERIOD ON THE
ASSUMPTION THAT THE SNOW WILL HAVE MELTED BY THEN. THE OTHER
POSSIBLE ISSUE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS AND FOG FOR FORM AND
NOT BREAK. I WOULD HAVE BUMPED UP TEMPS ANOTHER 5 TO 8 DEGREES OF
NOT FOR THESE TWO CONSIDERATIONS.

THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS QUITE. A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH LAST SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY...BUT WITH LITTLE
FANFARE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO MORE NORMAL LEVELS WITH A
GENERALLY DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TO IMPACT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING. LIFR TO IFR CIGS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND GO VFR
BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. IN AREAS OF
SNOW...VSBYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE. EASTERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY- HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-POCAHONTAS-
POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH- WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS NOV 14
SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...MS
AVIATION...BEERENDS NOV 14




000
FXUS63 KDMX 261807
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1207 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

WITH THE WRAP-AROUND SNOW JUST NOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
CWA...AND A FEW LOCATIONS DOWN TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE MILE
AT TIMES HAVE EXTENDED THE ADVISORY TO 6 PM ACROSS THE WESTERN
CWA. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT
THE LATE AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE CWA. DRIER
AIR IS WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CWA AHEAD OF THE
WRAP-AROUND BAND AND IS CAUSING THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE WAA BAND
OF SNOW TO REMAIN FURTHER SOUTH/WEST THAN ANTICIPATED. THEREFORE
AREAS AROUND MASON CITY AND INTO WATERLOO SHOULD NOT SEE AS MUCH
SNOW AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HAVE LEFT THEM IN THE ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME WITH SNOW EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON DUE
TO THE WRAP-AROUND BAND BUT 1-2 INCH AMOUNTS LOOK MORE LIKELY IN
THOSE AREAS VERSUS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OF 3-4 INCHES. MORE
PERSISTENT BAND OF SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA FROM
AROUND DES MOINES TO OTTUMWA. THIS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS WITH THE SNOW AREA SLIDING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL
RESULT IN HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN CWA AS WELL...WITH TOTAL AMOUNTS MOST LIKELY REACHING
THE 2-4 INCH RANGE BEFORE THE SNOW TAPERS OFF BY LATE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EARLY EVENING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 917 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THUS FAR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND NOW
ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN CWA.
VISIBILITIES ARE DROPPING TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE MILE AT
TIMES IN THE SNOW BAND. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE WRAP-AROUND
PORTION OF THE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/18Z
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CST WED NOV 26 2014

SNOW TO IMPACT MOST TAF SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SNOW
EXPECTED TO TAPER OFF BY EARLY EVENING. LIFR TO IFR CIGS TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA WITH CIGS TO LIFT TO MVFR THIS EVENING AND GO VFR
BY LATE TONIGHT INTO THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY. IN AREAS OF
SNOW...VSBYS WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE IFR TO MVFR RANGE. EASTERLY
TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BECOME GUSTY BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-JASPER-KOSSUTH-MARSHALL-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-
WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 261521
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
921 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THUS FAR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND NOW
ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN CWA.
VISIBILITIES ARE DROPPING TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE MILE AT
TIMES IN THE SNOW BAND. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE WRAP-AROUND
PORTION OF THE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS...WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARD
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SPREADING A LARGE SHIELD OF LOW
STRATUS AND SNOW AND RESULTING IN BOTH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS FOR LONG
PERIODS. HAVE TAKEN BEST GUESS AT MAGNITUDE OF VSBY/CIG DROPS AND
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT BUT THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE TWEAKED
WITH AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THE CLOUDS/SNOW WILL MOVE OFF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 261521
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
921 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 917 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THUS FAR WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW BAND NOW
ROTATING NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN CWA.
VISIBILITIES ARE DROPPING TO AROUND ONE HALF MILE TO ONE MILE AT
TIMES IN THE SNOW BAND. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD TOP OUT AT 3 TO 5
INCHES ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE ADVISORY AREA. THE SOUTHWESTERN
CWA SHOULD CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. THE WRAP-AROUND
PORTION OF THE SNOW IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO
NORTHWESTERN/NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA AND SHOULD CONTINUE TO
PUSH INTO THE NORTHERN CWA THROUGH THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON.
THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE WILL CONTINUE TO DROP OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE DAY WITH SNOW TO TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS...WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARD
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SPREADING A LARGE SHIELD OF LOW
STRATUS AND SNOW AND RESULTING IN BOTH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS FOR LONG
PERIODS. HAVE TAKEN BEST GUESS AT MAGNITUDE OF VSBY/CIG DROPS AND
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT BUT THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE TWEAKED
WITH AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THE CLOUDS/SNOW WILL MOVE OFF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...BEERENDS
SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 261136
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/12Z
ISSUED AT 536 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON THIS MORNING AND INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT MOST TERMINALS...WITH ONLY GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT TOWARD
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...SPREADING A LARGE SHIELD OF LOW
STRATUS AND SNOW AND RESULTING IN BOTH LOW CIGS AND VSBYS FOR LONG
PERIODS. HAVE TAKEN BEST GUESS AT MAGNITUDE OF VSBY/CIG DROPS AND
TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT BUT THESE TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE TWEAKED
WITH AMENDMENTS THROUGH THE DAY. AS THE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THE CLOUDS/SNOW WILL MOVE OFF WITH VFR
CONDITIONS PREVAILING BY EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 260958
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE
MAY BE A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS BUT AS THE AIR SATURATES IT WILL QUICKLY
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z BUT A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS AFT 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260958
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE
MAY BE A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS BUT AS THE AIR SATURATES IT WILL QUICKLY
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z BUT A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS AFT 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260958
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE
MAY BE A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS BUT AS THE AIR SATURATES IT WILL QUICKLY
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z BUT A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS AFT 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 260958
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
358 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE APPROACHING WINTER STORM AND SNOW EVENT HAVE UNFOLDED VERY MUCH
AS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...WITH A BANDING FEATURE TRANSLATING SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND AFFECTING A BROAD SWATH ROUGHLY DOWN
THE I-35 CORRIDOR AT THIS TIME. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WITHIN THIS BAND
HAVE ALREADY REACHED BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES ACCORDING TO SPARSE
REPORTS. THE PARENT SURFACE LOW IS STILL LOCATED ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST IOWA...AND WILL SLIDE SOUTHEASTWARD TODAY. THE EARLY
MORNING SNOW BAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY PROGRESS EAST AND
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING...CLEARING OUT OF CENTRAL IOWA...THEN STALL
AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE SURFACE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THIS WILL
RESULT IN SLIGHTLY LESS INTENSE SNOWFALL RATES ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST
LATER THIS MORNING...BUT A LONGER DURATION OF SNOWFALL AS THE BAND
PIVOTS AROUND THE LOW RESULTING IN HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS IN THOSE
AREAS. DOWN TOWARD THE DES MOINES METRO MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING
SNOW SHOULD FALL WITHIN THE PROGRESSIVE BAND...ENDING AROUND 5 OR
PERHAPS 6 AM...WITH JUST LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THEREAFTER.

THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TODAY IS ALSO PROBLEMATIC...AS IN THE
NORTHWEST HIGHS WILL PROBABLY BE THE TEMPERATURE AT 12Z...WHEREAS IN
THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WARM AIR ADVECTION ON THE LEADING FLANK OF
THE LOW SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB TO A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE
FREEZING IN THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON...POTENTIALLY RESULTING
IN A CHANGE OF PRECIP OVER TO LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES. IN ANY EVENT
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT IN THOSE AREAS BY THAT TIME...BUT AT
LEAST IT WILL KEEP ROADS WET INSTEAD OF ICY. THE OTHER FORECAST
CONCERN IS THE WINDS COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
COUNTIES...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME BLOWING SNOW EFFECTS. THE
PRECIP SHOULD END BEFORE THE STRONGER WINDS ARRIVE AND THE NEW SNOW
ON THE GROUND WILL BE FAIRLY WET AND STICKY. THIS WILL MITIGATE
BLOWING SNOW IMPACTS...BUT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SHALLOW
BLOWOVER ON THE ROADS WHICH...COMBINED WITH RAPIDLY FALLING
TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING...MAY RESULT IN REFREEZE ISSUES AFTER
DARK. FOR NOW THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY LINES UP WELL WITH
FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SO NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE...BUT THESE
POSSIBLE THREATS WILL BE ASSESSED THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN CASE CHANGES
TO THE ADVISORY AREA/TIMING BECOME NECESSARY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 355 AM CST WED NOV 26 2014

THE COLD ADVECTION SURGE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO IOWA THIS
EVENING AND THIS WILL BE THE PERIOD OF PEAK MIXING AND WIND GUST
POTENTIAL. WIND GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY AND THIS WILL CREATE
SOME AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. POTENTIAL IS THERE THAT HEADLINES MAY
NEED TO BE EXTENDED INTO THE EVENING FOR THE BLOWING SNOW. A
SECONDARY SHORT WAVE DROPPING THROUGH SOUTHERN MN AND INTO
NORTHERN IA THIS EVENING WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT SNOW
GOING OVER THE EAST/SOUTHEAST BEFORE ENDING WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS LESS THAN ONE INCH.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE INTO LATE TONIGHT AND INTO
THURSDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO BELOW ZERO OVER THE
NORTHWEST TONIGHT AS THE ARCTIC AIR ARRIVES. THURSDAY WILL REMAIN
COLD UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE HOWEVER THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE AND WILL BE PASSING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY
THE EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN WARM ADVECTION THROUGHOUT
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES LIKELY WILL BE AFTER
THE END OF THE HIGH TEMPERATURE GRID PERIOD OF 01Z AND BE CLOSER
TO MIDNIGHT. WARMER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE ON FRIDAY WITH MOST
LOCATIONS RISING ABOVE FREEZING AS STRONG WARMING ALOFT COMMENCES.
INITIAL ENERGY WILL BE SPENT ON MELTING THEN READINGS SHOULD RISE
INTO THE 40S OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA WHILE THE NORTH
REMAINS IN THE 30S WERE DEEPER SNOW COVER IS EXPECTED. LIKELY TOO
CONSERVATIVE ON HIGHS SATURDAY OVER AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE TO NO
SNOW COVER TO BEGIN THE DAY. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE WILL BE OVER
IOWA MUCH OF THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES OF 12C TO 15C POSSIBLE.
OBVIOUSLY MIXING WILL NOT OCCUR TO THIS LEVEL BUT WITH SOUTHWEST
WINDS...COULD WELL WARM INTO THE 50S AND APPROACH 60 OVER
SOUTHWEST IOWA WHILE COOLER OVER THE NORTH. SUSPECT TEMPERATURES
ARE STILL TOO COOL SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS THE NEXT ARCTIC
BOUNDARY IS DELAYED A BIT. SUNDAY COULD APPROACH 50 IF EVERYTHING
FALLS RIGHT OVER SOUTHERN IOWA. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD ARRIVE OVER
NORTHERN IOWA DURING THE DAY WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING.

THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED INCLUDES A COLD MONDAY FOLLOWED BY A
MORE SEASONAL DAY ON TUESDAY. SOME POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION
AGAIN ON TUESDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF WARM ADVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE
MAY BE A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS BUT AS THE AIR SATURATES IT WILL QUICKLY
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z BUT A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS AFT 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST TODAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 260545
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1145 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT FOR TIMING AS
PRECIP IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA. IT IS TAKING
ABOUT 2 HOURS FOR THE COLUMN TO COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SO AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE THE PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW. THE CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR
QUICKER ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY
AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST JUST A BIT THINKING
THAT IT WOULD TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER TO SATURATE IN THIS AREA.
PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND IT IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. ACROSS THE NORTH IT RAINED
OR THERE WAS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY BEFORE THE COLUMN
SATURATED AND COOLED CHANGING THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. IT MAY TAKE
A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH SO I KEPT MIXED PRECIP IN ACROSS THE
SOUTH A BIT PAST 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOW A SHALLOW WARM NOSE BUT THE COLUMN WAS
NOT SATURATED. I BELIEVE ONCE THE COLUMN SATURATES PTYPE WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
WINTERY MIX...PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THIS NUDGED SOME SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP NEGLIGIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA CO-INCIDENT WITH THE BEST FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE
MAY BE A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS BUT AS THE AIR SATURATES IT WILL QUICKLY
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z BUT A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS AFT 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260545
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1145 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

LITTLE CHANGE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST EXCEPT FOR TIMING AS
PRECIP IS STARTING TO MOVE INTO THE WESTERN CWA. IT IS TAKING
ABOUT 2 HOURS FOR THE COLUMN TO COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO
CHANGE TO ALL SNOW SO AFTER A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN OR FREEZING
DRIZZLE THE PRECIP WILL BE ALL SNOW. THE CHANGEOVER WILL OCCUR
QUICKER ACROSS NORTHERN LOCATIONS. NO OTHER CHANGES WERE NECESSARY
AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 947 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST JUST A BIT THINKING
THAT IT WOULD TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER TO SATURATE IN THIS AREA.
PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND IT IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. ACROSS THE NORTH IT RAINED
OR THERE WAS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY BEFORE THE COLUMN
SATURATED AND COOLED CHANGING THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. IT MAY TAKE
A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH SO I KEPT MIXED PRECIP IN ACROSS THE
SOUTH A BIT PAST 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOW A SHALLOW WARM NOSE BUT THE COLUMN WAS
NOT SATURATED. I BELIEVE ONCE THE COLUMN SATURATES PTYPE WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
WINTERY MIX...PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THIS NUDGED SOME SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP NEGLIGIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA CO-INCIDENT WITH THE BEST FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/06Z
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CIGS WILL BECOME IFR VERY QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN. THERE
MAY BE A ONE TO TWO HOUR WINDOW OF MIXED PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN TAFS BUT AS THE AIR SATURATES IT WILL QUICKLY
COOL ENOUGH FOR THE PRECIP TO BE ALL SNOW. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z BUT A NORTHWEST WIND WILL
INCREASE ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS AFT 21Z THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 260353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST JUST A BIT THINKING
THAT IT WOULD TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER TO SATURATE IN THIS AREA.
PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND IT IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. ACROSS THE NORTH IT RAINED
OR THERE WAS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY BEFORE THE COLUMN
SATURATED AND COOLED CHANGING THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. IT MAY TAKE
A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH SO I KEPT MIXED PRECIP IN ACROSS THE
SOUTH A BIT PAST 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOW A SHALLOW WARM NOSE BUT THE COLUMN WAS
NOT SATURATED. I BELIEVE ONCE THE COLUMN SATURATES PTYPE WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
WINTERY MIX...PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THIS NUDGED SOME SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP NEGLIGIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA CO-INCIDENT WITH THE BEST FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND IS FORECAST TO SATURATE VERY
QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  AS A RESULT OF THE
QUICK SATURATION...CIGS WILL BE VFR THEN QUICKLY DROP TO IFR.
NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL VSBY TO 1/2SM.  IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST JUST A BIT THINKING
THAT IT WOULD TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER TO SATURATE IN THIS AREA.
PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND IT IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. ACROSS THE NORTH IT RAINED
OR THERE WAS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY BEFORE THE COLUMN
SATURATED AND COOLED CHANGING THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. IT MAY TAKE
A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH SO I KEPT MIXED PRECIP IN ACROSS THE
SOUTH A BIT PAST 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOW A SHALLOW WARM NOSE BUT THE COLUMN WAS
NOT SATURATED. I BELIEVE ONCE THE COLUMN SATURATES PTYPE WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
WINTERY MIX...PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THIS NUDGED SOME SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP NEGLIGIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA CO-INCIDENT WITH THE BEST FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND IS FORECAST TO SATURATE VERY
QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  AS A RESULT OF THE
QUICK SATURATION...CIGS WILL BE VFR THEN QUICKLY DROP TO IFR.
NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL VSBY TO 1/2SM.  IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 260353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
953 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 947 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

SLOWED THE ONSET OF PRECIP ACROSS THE EAST JUST A BIT THINKING
THAT IT WOULD TAKE JUST A LITTLE LONGER TO SATURATE IN THIS AREA.
PRECIP HAS MOVED INTO THE WEST AND IT IS IN THE FORM OF RAIN
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST IOWA. ACROSS THE NORTH IT RAINED
OR THERE WAS SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE BRIEFLY BEFORE THE COLUMN
SATURATED AND COOLED CHANGING THE PRECIP OVER TO SNOW. IT MAY TAKE
A BIT LONGER ACROSS THE SOUTH SO I KEPT MIXED PRECIP IN ACROSS THE
SOUTH A BIT PAST 06Z.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOW A SHALLOW WARM NOSE BUT THE COLUMN WAS
NOT SATURATED. I BELIEVE ONCE THE COLUMN SATURATES PTYPE WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
WINTERY MIX...PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THIS NUDGED SOME SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP NEGLIGIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA CO-INCIDENT WITH THE BEST FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND IS FORECAST TO SATURATE VERY
QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  AS A RESULT OF THE
QUICK SATURATION...CIGS WILL BE VFR THEN QUICKLY DROP TO IFR.
NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL VSBY TO 1/2SM.  IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-
HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260156
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
756 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOW A SHALLOW WARM NOSE BUT THE COLUMN WAS
NOT SATURATED. I BELIEVE ONCE THE COLUMN SATURATES PTYPE WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
WINTERY MIX...PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THIS NUDGED SOME SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP NEGLIGIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA CO-INCIDENT WITH THE BEST FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND IS FORECAST TO SATURATE VERY
QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  AS A RESULT OF THE
QUICK SATURATION...CIGS WILL BE VFR THEN QUICKLY DROP TO IFR.
NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL VSBY TO 1/2SM.  IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 260156
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
756 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 751 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MADE SOME TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST BASED ON SOUNDINGS. SOUNDINGS
ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOW A SHALLOW WARM NOSE BUT THE COLUMN WAS
NOT SATURATED. I BELIEVE ONCE THE COLUMN SATURATES PTYPE WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY OVER TO SNOW SO OTHER THAN A BRIEF PERIOD OF A
WINTERY MIX...PRECIP SHOULD BE SNOW. THIS NUDGED SOME SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS UP NEGLIGIBLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. ALSO INCREASED POPS ACROSS
THE ADVISORY AREA CO-INCIDENT WITH THE BEST FORCING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND IS FORECAST TO SATURATE VERY
QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  AS A RESULT OF THE
QUICK SATURATION...CIGS WILL BE VFR THEN QUICKLY DROP TO IFR.
NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL VSBY TO 1/2SM.  IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

UPDATE...FAB
SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 260000
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
556 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND IS FORECAST TO SATURATE VERY
QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  AS A RESULT OF THE
QUICK SATURATION...CIGS WILL BE VFR THEN QUICKLY DROP TO IFR.
NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL VSBY TO 1/2SM.  IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 260000
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
556 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...26/00Z
ISSUED AT 556 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

A CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THE STATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
CURRENTLY THE AIRMASS IS QUITE DRY AND IS FORECAST TO SATURATE VERY
QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES IN.  THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF
DRIZZLE OR RAIN BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.  AS A RESULT OF THE
QUICK SATURATION...CIGS WILL BE VFR THEN QUICKLY DROP TO IFR.
NORTHERN TAF SITES MAY SEE AN OCCASIONAL VSBY TO 1/2SM.  IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AFT 15Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 252123
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE ONSET OF SNOW ALONG WITH
LOWERING CIGS/VSBY. RAPIDLY MOVING CLIPPER HEADING SOUTHEAST NOW
OUT OF MT/DAKOTAS AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING WESTERN TAF
SITES WITH LT SNOW AROUND 05 TO 07Z EXPANDING QUICKLY WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCING FROM THE LOW TO FULLY COVER THE AREA
BY 13Z. CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER FROM VFR TO IFR BETWEEN 06 AND
09Z FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH KOTM LOWERING BY 13Z. AS THE SNOW
PICKS UP...EXPECT VSBY TO LOWER TO 2 TO 3SM AND ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE THROUGH END OF PERIOD. AS THE LOW PASSES...WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN AREAS AFT 14Z AND EAST BY 19Z. /REV


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 252123
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS TONIGHT WILL BE SNOWFALL TIMING AND AMOUNTS. THE FAST
MOVING CLIPPER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TRACKING INTO WEST CENTRAL TO
SOUTHERN IOWA BY 12Z WED WITH A SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION EXPANDING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE WEST FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE GENERALLY SLOWED THE SYSTEM DOWN A FEW HOURS...SO HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE ARRIVAL TIME AND TRANSLATION THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA. MILDER AIR THIS AFTERNOON HAS WARMED TEMPERATURES MORE THAN
GUIDANCE HAD ANTICIPATED...BUT OVERALL THE END RESULT OF THE SYSTEM
LOOKS PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE
SOUTH...FARTHER NORTH TO NEAR I80 THAT MAY SEE LESS SNOWFALL WITH A
RAIN SNOW MIXTURE MORE LIKELY AT THIS TIME...BUT STILL SOME
CONFIDENCE ISSUES DUE TO PRESENT DRY AIR AND EXPECTATION THAT WET
BULB MAY RISE OVERNIGHT ENOUGH TO KEEP SFC TEMPS JUST ABOVE
FREEZING. ALOFT...THE WARM LAYER ALOFT MAY COOL FASTER THAN
ANTICIPATED...WITH SLIGHTLY MORE SNOW THAN RAIN IN THE RAIN SNOW
MIX. THIS IS GENERALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE METRO AND
THEN SOUTHEAST TOWARD OTTUMWA. TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE
H850 LOW TRACK...ALL SNOW WILL FALL. THE CUT OFF OF MIX TO ALL
SNOW IS THROUGH POLK COUNTY SO NORTHERN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE MORE
SNOW THAN SOUTHERN AREAS HERE. OVERALL BY 12Z WITH AMPLE
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND QG FORCING...ABOUT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIER TOTALS FROM NORTHWEST TO CENTRAL. WITH
THE ANTICIPATION OF AMOUNTS OF 2 TO LOCALLY NEAR 4 INCHES
NORTH...WILL ISSUE HEADLINE FOR WINTER WEATHER NORTH AND
NORTHEAST...WITH START/END TIMES STAGGERED TO BETTER REFLECT THE
TIMING OF IMPACTS. THE WESTERN SECTION BEGINS AT 06Z AND THE
EASTERN SECTION AT 09Z...ENDING AT 18Z AND 21Z RESPECTIVELY. SINCE
MUCH OF THE SNOW WILL FALL WEST OVERNIGHT...MORNING IMPACTS WILL
BE GREATEST OVER THE WEST...BUT MUCH OF THE AREA WILL BE SEEING
SNOW BY 12Z. TEMPS WILL STAY MILD OVERNIGHT WITH THE SYSTEM...AND
WINDS POSE ONLY MINOR ADDITIONAL ISSUES AS STRONG WINDS ARE NOT
EXPECTED...GENERALLY 10 TO 15 MPH.


.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 323 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

BIGGEST ISSUE THROUGH THE MID/LONG RANGE WILL BE ON SNOWFALL CHANCES
WEDNESDAY AND THEN MAINLY TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED. CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
STATE MAINLY LATE TONIGHT AND LINGERING INTO WEDNESDAY. ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW TO TRACK FROM AROUND SIOUX CITY BY EARLY WEDNESDAY TO
SOUTHEASTERN IOWA/NRN ILLINOIS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WAA AHEAD OF
THE SYSTEM...AND MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE
LOW WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR MAINLY LIGHT SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF
THE CWA WEDNESDAY. EXPECT MAINLY LIGHT SNOW...WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT
SUGGESTING A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE SNOWFALL TO ROTATE/SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA AS THE LOW SLIDES THROUGH. THEREFORE TRIED TO GET
THE BASIC TREND WITH HIGHER POPS IN A FEW COUNTY-WIDE NW-SE LINE
THROUGH THE DAY. QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE AROUND A TENTH OF AN
INCH TO A FEW TENTHS AT MOST...WITH SNOWFALL RATIOS IN THE 14 TO
15 TO 1 RANGE WITH SOME LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE ACROSS
THE NORTH. WITH THE STRONGER WAA...SFC TEMPS EXPECTED TO RISE TO
NEAR FREEZING OR ABOVE FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREFORE COULD SEE SOME
SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH THE PUSH OF
WARMER AIR AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. THEREFORE LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
OR LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST. HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTH/NORTHEAST WITH AROUND 3 TO 4 INCHES POSSIBLE. WITH THE
MODERATE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AND WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO BE A BUSY
HOLIDAY TRAVEL DAY...WILL ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR ROUGHLY THE
NORTHERN HALF TO THIRD OF THE CWA. AS THE SYSTEM PULLS
AWAY...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS FOR A BIT WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FOR THURSDAY. GIVEN THE WINDS
ARRIVING AFTER THE SNOW ENDS...SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE BUT EXPECT MORE OF A DRIFTING OF SNOW ACROSS ROADWAYS
WEDNESDAY EVENING RATHER THAN DRASTIC REDUCTION IN VISIBILITIES
DUE TO BLOWING SNOW ESPECIALLY AS THE SFC PRES GRADIENT IS
RELAXING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH.

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE THANKSGIVING HOLIDAY WITH DRY
CONDITIONS...AND WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTH TOWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME FLURRIES OR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE FAR NORTH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH BETTER CHANCES
NORTH OF THE CWA. DRY CONDITIONS THEN EXPECTED INTO THE
WEEKEND...WITH A DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND.
STRONG WARMING AHEAD OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD ALLOW MUCH OF
THE SOUTHERN CWA TO REACH THE 40S TO AROUND 50 DEGREE RANGE. LARGE
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THEN DOMINATE THE CENTRAL/EASTERN US BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BRINGING WARMING TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE ONSET OF SNOW ALONG WITH
LOWERING CIGS/VSBY. RAPIDLY MOVING CLIPPER HEADING SOUTHEAST NOW
OUT OF MT/DAKOTAS AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING WESTERN TAF
SITES WITH LT SNOW AROUND 05 TO 07Z EXPANDING QUICKLY WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCING FROM THE LOW TO FULLY COVER THE AREA
BY 13Z. CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER FROM VFR TO IFR BETWEEN 06 AND
09Z FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH KOTM LOWERING BY 13Z. AS THE SNOW
PICKS UP...EXPECT VSBY TO LOWER TO 2 TO 3SM AND ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE THROUGH END OF PERIOD. AS THE LOW PASSES...WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN AREAS AFT 14Z AND EAST BY 19Z. /REV


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 6 PM CST WEDNESDAY FOR
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-
JASPER-MARSHALL-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WORTH.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON CST
WEDNESDAY FOR BOONE-EMMET-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 251743
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1143 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE STRATUS DECK THAT HAS COVERED THE AREA FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO IS
SLOWLY CLEARING TO THE EAST...NOW AFFECTING ONLY OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES...AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES FURTHER YET BEFORE SUNRISE THIS
MORNING...BUT THEN AS ITS AXIS PASSES BY MIDDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS
FROM AROUND THE DES MOINES METRO SOUTH AND WEST WILL BE PARTICULARLY
PLEASED AS TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 DEGREES. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS A LARGE DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY DRIFTING
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT AS
THEY REACH CENTRAL IOWA AND SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL EFFECT ON WARMING
THAT WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION MORE THAN
INSOLATION. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT CLOUDS AND
SNOW WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARD IOWA FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WILL NOT REACH OUR AREA BEFORE 00Z AND THIS SYSTEM IS
DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

INTENSE PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST TODAY THROUGH MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BEFORE
ARRIVING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED
KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WILL ARRIVE OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL IA LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PROFILES SATURATE DURING THIS TIME
WITH SNOW DEVELOPING. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE INITIAL ACTIVITY
COULD BE CONVECTIVE WITH STATIC STABILITY LOWERING AND STEEPING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER PV ANOMALY.
THEREFORE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES IS POSSIBLE. THE
SURFACE REFLECTION CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN IOWA
OVERNIGHT. WARMER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MOVING JUST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OF THE SFC LOW AND MAY BRING RISING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING FOR A SHORT PERIOD OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW BUT POSSIBLE THAT INITIAL WARMING
OF ROAD SURFACES COULD LEAD TO A MELTING THEN ICING ON PAVEMENT. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A STRIP OF 2 TO 4 INCHES STILL LIKELY THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW AS COLD
ADVECTION MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CREATE SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. MIXED LAYER WINDS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE OF
22-25 KTS AND GOOD PRESSURE RISES OVER THE DAKOTAS RELAX AS IT
ARRIVES INTO WESTERN IA WITH THE LOW FILLING FURTHER DURING THE
PERIOD. NONETHELESS...A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH MAY OCCUR AND CREATE A
FURTHER TRAVEL HAZARD. LIKELY WILL NEED HEADLINES ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN BREEZY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES AND SHALLOW MIXING MAINTAINS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RETURN TO
WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STEADY OR RISING ALREADY BY MID EVENING THEN CONTINUE TO
RISE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE CLIPS THROUGH THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
CONTINGENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT ARRIVAL AND AMOUNT OF SNOW
COVER REMAINING. FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY ARE LIKELY
CONSERVATIVE AND WILL BE MUCH WARMER IF SNOW COVER IS GONE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL BRING BOUTS OF COLD AND WARM
ADVECTION WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWED BY A WARMER TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE ONSET OF SNOW ALONG WITH
LOWERING CIGS/VSBY. RAPIDLY MOVING CLIPPER HEADING SOUTHEAST NOW
OUT OF MT/DAKOTAS AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING WESTERN TAF
SITES WITH LT SNOW AROUND 05 TO 07Z EXPANDING QUICKLY WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCING FROM THE LOW TO FULLY COVER THE AREA
BY 13Z. CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER FROM VFR TO IFR BETWEEN 06 AND
09Z FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH KOTM LOWERING BY 13Z. AS THE SNOW
PICKS UP...EXPECT VSBY TO LOWER TO 2 TO 3SM AND ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE THROUGH END OF PERIOD. AS THE LOW PASSES...WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN AREAS AFT 14Z AND EAST BY 19Z. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 251743
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1143 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

THE STRATUS DECK THAT HAS COVERED THE AREA FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO IS
SLOWLY CLEARING TO THE EAST...NOW AFFECTING ONLY OUR FAR EASTERN
COUNTIES...AHEAD OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST.
THIS RIDGE AND ITS ASSOCIATED CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO DROP SEVERAL DEGREES FURTHER YET BEFORE SUNRISE THIS
MORNING...BUT THEN AS ITS AXIS PASSES BY MIDDAY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS
FROM AROUND THE DES MOINES METRO SOUTH AND WEST WILL BE PARTICULARLY
PLEASED AS TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 40 DEGREES. THE ONLY FLY IN
THE OINTMENT IS A LARGE DECK OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS SLOWLY DRIFTING
TOWARD OUR FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTH DAKOTA...HOWEVER...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THESE CLOUDS SHOULD GRADUALLY THIN OUT AS
THEY REACH CENTRAL IOWA AND SHOULD HAVE A MINIMAL EFFECT ON WARMING
THAT WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY LOW LEVEL ADVECTION MORE THAN
INSOLATION. A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT CLOUDS AND
SNOW WILL ALSO BE MOVING TOWARD IOWA FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE
DAY...BUT WILL NOT REACH OUR AREA BEFORE 00Z AND THIS SYSTEM IS
DISCUSSED IN THE LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 301 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

INTENSE PV ANOMALY CURRENTLY OVER ALBERTA WILL MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST TODAY THROUGH MONTANA AND THE WESTERN DAKOTAS BEFORE
ARRIVING OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA THIS EVENING. THE ASSOCIATED
KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC FORCING WILL ARRIVE OVER NORTHWEST
IOWA BY MID TO LATE EVENING AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL IA LATE
EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. PROFILES SATURATE DURING THIS TIME
WITH SNOW DEVELOPING. THERE IS POTENTIAL THAT THE INITIAL ACTIVITY
COULD BE CONVECTIVE WITH STATIC STABILITY LOWERING AND STEEPING
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER PV ANOMALY.
THEREFORE A PERIOD OF MODERATE SNOWFALL RATES IS POSSIBLE. THE
SURFACE REFLECTION CLIPPER WILL BE MOVING INTO WESTERN IOWA
OVERNIGHT. WARMER DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BE MOVING JUST WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OF THE SFC LOW AND MAY BRING RISING TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
ABOVE FREEZING FOR A SHORT PERIOD OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA. THE PRIMARY
PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE SNOW BUT POSSIBLE THAT INITIAL WARMING
OF ROAD SURFACES COULD LEAD TO A MELTING THEN ICING ON PAVEMENT. A
PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LAST THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
A STRIP OF 2 TO 4 INCHES STILL LIKELY THROUGH CENTRAL IOWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE BEHIND THE LOW AS COLD
ADVECTION MOVES IN BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL CREATE SOME
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW. MIXED LAYER WINDS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE OF
22-25 KTS AND GOOD PRESSURE RISES OVER THE DAKOTAS RELAX AS IT
ARRIVES INTO WESTERN IA WITH THE LOW FILLING FURTHER DURING THE
PERIOD. NONETHELESS...A FEW GUSTS TO 35 MPH MAY OCCUR AND CREATE A
FURTHER TRAVEL HAZARD. LIKELY WILL NEED HEADLINES ESPECIALLY
CONSIDERING THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL.

THE WIND WILL REMAIN BREEZY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION
CONTINUES AND SHALLOW MIXING MAINTAINS. COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON THURSDAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK RETURN TO
WARM ADVECTION THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM DEPARTS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE STEADY OR RISING ALREADY BY MID EVENING THEN CONTINUE TO
RISE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ALL LOCATIONS AT OR ABOVE FREEZING BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE 850 MB THERMAL RIDGE CLIPS THROUGH THE STATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY
CONTINGENT ON TIMING OF COLD FRONT ARRIVAL AND AMOUNT OF SNOW
COVER REMAINING. FORECAST HIGHS FOR SATURDAY ARE LIKELY
CONSERVATIVE AND WILL BE MUCH WARMER IF SNOW COVER IS GONE. THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED WILL BRING BOUTS OF COLD AND WARM
ADVECTION WITH SUNDAY AND MONDAY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FOLLOWED BY A WARMER TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...25/18Z
ISSUED AT 1143 AM CST TUE NOV 25 2014

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD WILL BE ONSET OF SNOW ALONG WITH
LOWERING CIGS/VSBY. RAPIDLY MOVING CLIPPER HEADING SOUTHEAST NOW
OUT OF MT/DAKOTAS AND IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AFFECTING WESTERN TAF
SITES WITH LT SNOW AROUND 05 TO 07Z EXPANDING QUICKLY WITH
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND FORCING FROM THE LOW TO FULLY COVER THE AREA
BY 13Z. CIGS WILL QUICKLY LOWER FROM VFR TO IFR BETWEEN 06 AND
09Z FROM WEST TO EAST...WITH KOTM LOWERING BY 13Z. AS THE SNOW
PICKS UP...EXPECT VSBY TO LOWER TO 2 TO 3SM AND ONLY SLOWLY
IMPROVE THROUGH END OF PERIOD. AS THE LOW PASSES...WINDS BECOME
MORE NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN AREAS AFT 14Z AND EAST BY 19Z. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...REV




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