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000
FXUS63 KDMX 192330
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
630 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

STRONG MIXING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE DECOUPLING BY AROUND 23Z TO 00Z TONIGHT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEPS SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 12
KNOTS BEFORE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
AND FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT LATEST HRRR/HOPWRF BRING THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES FROM 03Z TO 09Z SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS
GOING DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORM
WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO HANG ON FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DES MOINES METRO AREA THROUGH THE IOWA
MISSOURI BORDER. COLD FROPA MAIN TRIGGER FOR ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.
PROBLEM IS THAT THE COLD FRONT IS LOOKING FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT A LOT
OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INDICATED DURING THE DAYTIME. MODELS
SHOWING BULLSEYE OF CAPE OF 2000 J/KG OVER SOUTHERN IOWA WITH AROUND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. MODELS ALSO SHOWING THIS AS A
. LOOKING AT SOUNDING PROFILES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED. THOUGH PWATS ARE +1 TO +2 STD DEV FOR EARLY
SATURDAY...SOUNDING PROFILE LOOKING VERY UNSATURATED. ALOFT...THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK WILL BE RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SO THIS WILL NOT SUPPORT LIFT. IN ALL...EXPECTING STORMS
SOUTH...BUT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A SIZABLE RIDGE
COMING OFF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DMX CWA IN CAA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS RIDGE SHOULD CLEAR SKIES OUT FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS. 850MB TEMPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE +8C TO +10C RANGE
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO LOW 50S. RIDGE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH IOWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PLACING THE CWA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT WAA FOR TUE AND WED...ALONG
WITH A RETURN OF POPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BEING ADVECTED INTO IOWA DURING THE MORNING BY 25-30KT
WINDS AT 850MB. GFS TRYING TO PUSH A VORT MAX THROUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. GFS ALSO SHOWING DECENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE TO HELP GENERATE LIFT. AT 1 TO 1.25 INCHES...PWAT
VALUES RETURN TO 0 TO +1 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. ENOUGH SUPPORT TO
KEEP SOUNDING PROFILE SATURATED ALOFT. PUTTING IT ALL
TOGETHER...WILL BUY INTO POPS FOR WED AM INTO THE PM. QUESTION IS
HOW LONG TO SUSTAIN THEM AS THE PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN
BECOMES MURKY FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

00Z MODELS HINTED AT AN OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP ACROSS THE CONUS.
EURO AND GFS 500MB ANALYSIS BOTH HAD PATTERN TRYING TO ORGANIZE AND
ARE PLACING IOWA ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH...WHICH IS WHERE
THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS TYPICALLY LOCATED. IF THIS SETUP BECOMES
MORE ORGANIZED...COULD BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED PRECIP
INTO AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z RUNS RETROGRADED THIS
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH AND DISSOLVED IT BY THE WEEKEND...WHICH SEEMS
SUSPECT. HOPEFULLY TOMORROW/S MODEL RUNS WILL BE ABLE TO OFFER A
BETTER SOLUTION. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
+12C TO +14C RANGE WHICH WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...WITH SOME LOWER VFR CIGS EXPECTED
WITH A FRONTAL PASSAGE OVERNIGHT AND ASSOCIATED POSSIBILITY OF
-SHRA/-TSRA. HAVE MENTIONED VCTS FOR THE BEST CHANCES IN A 3 TO 4
HOUR PERIOD AT THE DIFFERENT TAF SITES. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL TAKE
ITS TIME PROGRESSING ACROSS THE CWA...AND WILL BE IN THE VICINITY
OF KOTM TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. WINDS TO SHIFT
AROUND TO THE WEST TO NORTHWEST BEHIND THE BOUNDARY AS WELL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 192052
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

STRONG MIXING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE DECOUPLING BY AROUND 23Z TO 00Z TONIGHT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEPS SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 12
KNOTS BEFORE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
AND FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT LATEST HRRR/HOPWRF BRING THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES FROM 03Z TO 09Z SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS
GOING DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORM
WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO HANG ON FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DES MOINES METRO AREA THROUGH THE IOWA
MISSOURI BORDER. COLD FROPA MAIN TRIGGER FOR ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.
PROBLEM IS THAT THE COLD FRONT IS LOOKING FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT A LOT
OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INDICATED DURING THE DAYTIME. MODELS
SHOWING BULLSEYE OF CAPE OF 2000 J/KG OVER SOUTHERN IOWA WITH AROUND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. MODELS ALSO SHOWING THIS AS A
. LOOKING AT SOUNDING PROFILES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED. THOUGH PWATS ARE +1 TO +2 STD DEV FOR EARLY
SATURDAY...SOUNDING PROFILE LOOKING VERY UNSATURATED. ALOFT...THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK WILL BE RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SO THIS WILL NOT SUPPORT LIFT. IN ALL...EXPECTING STORMS
SOUTH...BUT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A SIZABLE RIDGE
COMING OFF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DMX CWA IN CAA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS RIDGE SHOULD CLEAR SKIES OUT FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS. 850MB TEMPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE +8C TO +10C RANGE
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO LOW 50S. RIDGE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH IOWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PLACING THE CWA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT WAA FOR TUE AND WED...ALONG
WITH A RETURN OF POPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BEING ADVECTED INTO IOWA DURING THE MORNING BY 25-30KT
WINDS AT 850MB. GFS TRYING TO PUSH A VORT MAX THROUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. GFS ALSO SHOWING DECENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE TO HELP GENERATE LIFT. AT 1 TO 1.25 INCHES...PWAT
VALUES RETURN TO 0 TO +1 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. ENOUGH SUPPORT TO
KEEP SOUNDING PROFILE SATURATED ALOFT. PUTTING IT ALL
TOGETHER...WILL BUY INTO POPS FOR WED AM INTO THE PM. QUESTION IS
HOW LONG TO SUSTAIN THEM AS THE PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN
BECOMES MURKY FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

00Z MODELS HINTED AT AN OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP ACROSS THE CONUS.
EURO AND GFS 500MB ANALYSIS BOTH HAD PATTERN TRYING TO ORGANIZE AND
ARE PLACING IOWA ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH...WHICH IS WHERE
THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS TYPICALLY LOCATED. IF THIS SETUP BECOMES
MORE ORGANIZED...COULD BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED PRECIP
INTO AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z RUNS RETROGRADED THIS
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH AND DISSOLVED IT BY THE WEEKEND...WHICH SEEMS
SUSPECT. HOPEFULLY TOMORROW/S MODEL RUNS WILL BE ABLE TO OFFER A
BETTER SOLUTION. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
+12C TO +14C RANGE WHICH WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...19/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LESSER
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IOWA B/T
06Z TO 10Z TONIGHT AND KEPT VCTS MENTIONED BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
WITH ANY WIDESPREAD OR LENGTHY PRECIP POTENTIAL.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 192052
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
352 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

STRONG MIXING WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS BEFORE DECOUPLING BY AROUND 23Z TO 00Z TONIGHT. PRESSURE
GRADIENT SHOULD REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEPS SUSTAINED WINDS AOA 12
KNOTS BEFORE THE WEAK COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE
AND FORCING WITH THE COLD FRONT...BUT LATEST HRRR/HOPWRF BRING THE
BEST PRECIP CHANCES FROM 03Z TO 09Z SATURDAY. HAVE HIGHEST POPS
GOING DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE AN ISOLATED PULSE SEVERE STORM
WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY AVAILABLE.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 351 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO HANG ON FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE DES MOINES METRO AREA THROUGH THE IOWA
MISSOURI BORDER. COLD FROPA MAIN TRIGGER FOR ANY STORM DEVELOPMENT.
PROBLEM IS THAT THE COLD FRONT IS LOOKING FAIRLY WEAK AND NOT A LOT
OF FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING INDICATED DURING THE DAYTIME. MODELS
SHOWING BULLSEYE OF CAPE OF 2000 J/KG OVER SOUTHERN IOWA WITH AROUND
30-40KTS OF 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. MODELS ALSO SHOWING THIS AS A
. LOOKING AT SOUNDING PROFILES...ANY THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY BE
ELEVATED. THOUGH PWATS ARE +1 TO +2 STD DEV FOR EARLY
SATURDAY...SOUNDING PROFILE LOOKING VERY UNSATURATED. ALOFT...THE
RIGHT EXIT REGION OF THE JET STREAK WILL BE RIGHT BEHIND THIS
FRONT SO THIS WILL NOT SUPPORT LIFT. IN ALL...EXPECTING STORMS
SOUTH...BUT SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL AT BEST.

MODELS COMING INTO GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A SIZABLE RIDGE
COMING OFF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE DAKOTAS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL KEEP THE DMX CWA IN CAA THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE WITH THIS RIDGE SHOULD CLEAR SKIES OUT FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY MORNINGS. 850MB TEMPS APPEAR TO BE IN THE +8C TO +10C RANGE
FOR THE MORNING HOURS. WHICH SHOULD BE SUPPORTIVE OF LOWS IN THE MID
40S TO LOW 50S. RIDGE TO PROPAGATE THROUGH IOWA MONDAY
AFTERNOON...PLACING THE CWA IN SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME SLIGHT WAA FOR TUE AND WED...ALONG
WITH A RETURN OF POPS.

WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...MODELS SHOWING A DECENT SLUG OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT BEING ADVECTED INTO IOWA DURING THE MORNING BY 25-30KT
WINDS AT 850MB. GFS TRYING TO PUSH A VORT MAX THROUGH DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. GFS ALSO SHOWING DECENT MID TO UPPER LEVEL Q-VECTOR
CONVERGENCE TO HELP GENERATE LIFT. AT 1 TO 1.25 INCHES...PWAT
VALUES RETURN TO 0 TO +1 STD DEV ABOVE NORMAL. ENOUGH SUPPORT TO
KEEP SOUNDING PROFILE SATURATED ALOFT. PUTTING IT ALL
TOGETHER...WILL BUY INTO POPS FOR WED AM INTO THE PM. QUESTION IS
HOW LONG TO SUSTAIN THEM AS THE PROGRESSION OF THIS PATTERN
BECOMES MURKY FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

00Z MODELS HINTED AT AN OMEGA BLOCK SETTING UP ACROSS THE CONUS.
EURO AND GFS 500MB ANALYSIS BOTH HAD PATTERN TRYING TO ORGANIZE AND
ARE PLACING IOWA ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH...WHICH IS WHERE
THE DEFORMATION ZONE IS TYPICALLY LOCATED. IF THIS SETUP BECOMES
MORE ORGANIZED...COULD BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF SCATTERED PRECIP
INTO AND THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THE 12Z RUNS RETROGRADED THIS
SHORTWAVE/TROUGH AND DISSOLVED IT BY THE WEEKEND...WHICH SEEMS
SUSPECT. HOPEFULLY TOMORROW/S MODEL RUNS WILL BE ABLE TO OFFER A
BETTER SOLUTION. REGARDLESS...IT APPEARS 850MB TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
+12C TO +14C RANGE WHICH WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...19/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LESSER
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IOWA B/T
06Z TO 10Z TONIGHT AND KEPT VCTS MENTIONED BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
WITH ANY WIDESPREAD OR LENGTHY PRECIP POTENTIAL.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...KOTENBERG
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 191741
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1241 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AN UPDATE WILL BE COMING OUT SHORTLY TO TAKE OUT THE ISOLATED
THUNDER CHANCES AND TO ADJUST TO CLOUD TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE TODAY WILL DRAW WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR.  FIRST ISSUE IS WITH THE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
THE STATE THIS MORNING.  THIS IS A CONDITIONAL
SITUATION...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CASE FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION IF THE SATURATION CAN OCCUR CLOSE TO THE H8 LEVEL.
SAT PIX INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY AS AC STREAMS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO ERN NEBRASKA AND
FAR WESTERN IA IS IN PLACE.  WILL KEEP THE NARROW BAND OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE H8 JET BREAKS
DOWN.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  CLOUDS WILL
BE AN ISSUE...BUT WILL GO FOR MID 70S EAST AND LOW 80S WEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTER
GRADIENT IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SFC BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK INTO NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO
A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW. KINEMATIC FORCING WILL INCREASE
OVER NW IA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IN ADDITION
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH THE AID OF A SLIGHTLY COUPLED JET.
MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG CONCURRENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 35 KTS WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH GOOD VERTICAL
ACCELERATION AT TIMES. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD 12Z THEN NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 12-20Z WITH A LACK OF SFC
CONVERGENCE...SOME LOW LEVEL CAPPING AND A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THE BOUNDARY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN IOWA BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE
LOW TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL
DROP QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY...ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT CONDITIONS. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK EAST WHILE THE WESTERN CUTOFF LOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY OVER THE WEST AND
TO THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...19/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LESSER
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IOWA B/T
06Z TO 10Z TONIGHT AND KEPT VCTS MENTIONED BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
WITH ANY WIDESPREAD OR LENGTHY PRECIP POTENTIAL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...MS SEP 14
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK




000
FXUS63 KDMX 191741
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1241 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AN UPDATE WILL BE COMING OUT SHORTLY TO TAKE OUT THE ISOLATED
THUNDER CHANCES AND TO ADJUST TO CLOUD TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE TODAY WILL DRAW WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR.  FIRST ISSUE IS WITH THE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
THE STATE THIS MORNING.  THIS IS A CONDITIONAL
SITUATION...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CASE FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION IF THE SATURATION CAN OCCUR CLOSE TO THE H8 LEVEL.
SAT PIX INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY AS AC STREAMS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO ERN NEBRASKA AND
FAR WESTERN IA IS IN PLACE.  WILL KEEP THE NARROW BAND OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE H8 JET BREAKS
DOWN.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  CLOUDS WILL
BE AN ISSUE...BUT WILL GO FOR MID 70S EAST AND LOW 80S WEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTER
GRADIENT IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SFC BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK INTO NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO
A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW. KINEMATIC FORCING WILL INCREASE
OVER NW IA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IN ADDITION
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH THE AID OF A SLIGHTLY COUPLED JET.
MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG CONCURRENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 35 KTS WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH GOOD VERTICAL
ACCELERATION AT TIMES. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD 12Z THEN NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 12-20Z WITH A LACK OF SFC
CONVERGENCE...SOME LOW LEVEL CAPPING AND A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THE BOUNDARY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN IOWA BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE
LOW TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL
DROP QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY...ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT CONDITIONS. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK EAST WHILE THE WESTERN CUTOFF LOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY OVER THE WEST AND
TO THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...19/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH LESSER
POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VIS. WEAK FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH IOWA B/T
06Z TO 10Z TONIGHT AND KEPT VCTS MENTIONED BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE
WITH ANY WIDESPREAD OR LENGTHY PRECIP POTENTIAL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...MS SEP 14
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 191211
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
711 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AN UPDATE WILL BE COMING OUT SHORTLY TO TAKE OUT THE ISOLATED
THUNDER CHANCES AND TO ADJUST TO CLOUD TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE TODAY WILL DRAW WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR.  FIRST ISSUE IS WITH THE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
THE STATE THIS MORNING.  THIS IS A CONDITIONAL
SITUATION...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CASE FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION IF THE SATURATION CAN OCCUR CLOSE TO THE H8 LEVEL.
SAT PIX INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY AS AC STREAMS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO ERN NEBRASKA AND
FAR WESTERN IA IS IN PLACE.  WILL KEEP THE NARROW BAND OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE H8 JET BREAKS
DOWN.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  CLOUDS WILL
BE AN ISSUE...BUT WILL GO FOR MID 70S EAST AND LOW 80S WEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTER
GRADIENT IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SFC BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK INTO NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO
A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW. KINEMATIC FORCING WILL INCREASE
OVER NW IA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IN ADDITION
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH THE AID OF A SLIGHTLY COUPLED JET.
MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG CONCURRENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 35 KTS WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH GOOD VERTICAL
ACCELERATION AT TIMES. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD 12Z THEN NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 12-20Z WITH A LACK OF SFC
CONVERGENCE...SOME LOW LEVEL CAPPING AND A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THE BOUNDARY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN IOWA BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE
LOW TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL
DROP QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY...ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT CONDITIONS. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK EAST WHILE THE WESTERN CUTOFF LOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY OVER THE WEST AND
TO THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...19/12Z
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT FROM MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL CO WILL MOVE INTO IA THIS
EVENING AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES SAT. A BAND OF MVFR
AND SOME IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN WESTERN IA WILL PULL EAST
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT
AND POUCH AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS KOTM BY SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GENERALLY
VFR...HOWEVER MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...MS SEP 14
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...MS SEP 14




000
FXUS63 KDMX 191211
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
711 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

AN UPDATE WILL BE COMING OUT SHORTLY TO TAKE OUT THE ISOLATED
THUNDER CHANCES AND TO ADJUST TO CLOUD TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE TODAY WILL DRAW WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR.  FIRST ISSUE IS WITH THE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
THE STATE THIS MORNING.  THIS IS A CONDITIONAL
SITUATION...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CASE FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION IF THE SATURATION CAN OCCUR CLOSE TO THE H8 LEVEL.
SAT PIX INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY AS AC STREAMS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO ERN NEBRASKA AND
FAR WESTERN IA IS IN PLACE.  WILL KEEP THE NARROW BAND OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE H8 JET BREAKS
DOWN.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  CLOUDS WILL
BE AN ISSUE...BUT WILL GO FOR MID 70S EAST AND LOW 80S WEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTER
GRADIENT IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SFC BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK INTO NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO
A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW. KINEMATIC FORCING WILL INCREASE
OVER NW IA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IN ADDITION
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH THE AID OF A SLIGHTLY COUPLED JET.
MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG CONCURRENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 35 KTS WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH GOOD VERTICAL
ACCELERATION AT TIMES. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD 12Z THEN NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 12-20Z WITH A LACK OF SFC
CONVERGENCE...SOME LOW LEVEL CAPPING AND A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THE BOUNDARY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN IOWA BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE
LOW TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL
DROP QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY...ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT CONDITIONS. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK EAST WHILE THE WESTERN CUTOFF LOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY OVER THE WEST AND
TO THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...19/12Z
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT FROM MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL CO WILL MOVE INTO IA THIS
EVENING AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES SAT. A BAND OF MVFR
AND SOME IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN WESTERN IA WILL PULL EAST
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT
AND POUCH AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS KOTM BY SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GENERALLY
VFR...HOWEVER MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...MS SEP 14
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...MS SEP 14





000
FXUS63 KDMX 191129
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
629 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE TODAY WILL DRAW WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR.  FIRST ISSUE IS WITH THE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
THE STATE THIS MORNING.  THIS IS A CONDITIONAL
SITUATION...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CASE FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION IF THE SATURATION CAN OCCUR CLOSE TO THE H8 LEVEL.
SAT PIX INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY AS AC STREAMS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO ERN NEBRASKA AND
FAR WESTERN IA IS IN PLACE.  WILL KEEP THE NARROW BAND OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE H8 JET BREAKS
DOWN.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  CLOUDS WILL
BE AN ISSUE...BUT WILL GO FOR MID 70S EAST AND LOW 80S WEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTER
GRADIENT IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SFC BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK INTO NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO
A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW. KINEMATIC FORCING WILL INCREASE
OVER NW IA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IN ADDITION
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH THE AID OF A SLIGHTLY COUPLED JET.
MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG CONCURRENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 35 KTS WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH GOOD VERTICAL
ACCELERATION AT TIMES. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD 12Z THEN NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 12-20Z WITH A LACK OF SFC
CONVERGENCE...SOME LOW LEVEL CAPPING AND A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THE BOUNDARY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN IOWA BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE
LOW TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL
DROP QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY...ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT CONDITIONS. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK EAST WHILE THE WESTERN CUTOFF LOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY OVER THE WEST AND
TO THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...19/12Z
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT FROM MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL CO WILL MOVE INTO IA THIS
EVENING AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES SAT. A BAND OF MVFR
AND SOME IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN WESTERN IA WILL PULL EAST
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT
AND POUCH AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS KOTM BY SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GENERALLY
VFR...HOWEVER MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS SEP 14
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...MS SEP 14




000
FXUS63 KDMX 191129
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
629 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE TODAY WILL DRAW WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR.  FIRST ISSUE IS WITH THE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
THE STATE THIS MORNING.  THIS IS A CONDITIONAL
SITUATION...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CASE FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION IF THE SATURATION CAN OCCUR CLOSE TO THE H8 LEVEL.
SAT PIX INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY AS AC STREAMS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO ERN NEBRASKA AND
FAR WESTERN IA IS IN PLACE.  WILL KEEP THE NARROW BAND OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE H8 JET BREAKS
DOWN.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  CLOUDS WILL
BE AN ISSUE...BUT WILL GO FOR MID 70S EAST AND LOW 80S WEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTER
GRADIENT IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SFC BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK INTO NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO
A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW. KINEMATIC FORCING WILL INCREASE
OVER NW IA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IN ADDITION
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH THE AID OF A SLIGHTLY COUPLED JET.
MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG CONCURRENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 35 KTS WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH GOOD VERTICAL
ACCELERATION AT TIMES. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD 12Z THEN NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 12-20Z WITH A LACK OF SFC
CONVERGENCE...SOME LOW LEVEL CAPPING AND A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THE BOUNDARY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN IOWA BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE
LOW TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL
DROP QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY...ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT CONDITIONS. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK EAST WHILE THE WESTERN CUTOFF LOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY OVER THE WEST AND
TO THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...19/12Z
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

COLD FRONT FROM MANITOBA INTO CENTRAL CO WILL MOVE INTO IA THIS
EVENING AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF THE TAF SITES SAT. A BAND OF MVFR
AND SOME IFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES IN WESTERN IA WILL PULL EAST
AND DISSIPATE THIS MORNING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT
AND POUCH AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS KOTM BY SUNRISE.

OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT WILL PASS SOUTHEAST WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING INTO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. GENERALLY
VFR...HOWEVER MORNING FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS SEP 14
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...MS SEP 14





000
FXUS63 KDMX 190815
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
315 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE TODAY WILL DRAW WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR.  FIRST ISSUE IS WITH THE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
THE STATE THIS MORNING.  THIS IS A CONDITIONAL
SITUATION...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CASE FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION IF THE SATURATION CAN OCCUR CLOSE TO THE H8 LEVEL.
SAT PIX INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY AS AC STREAMS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO ERN NEBRASKA AND
FAR WESTERN IA IS IN PLACE.  WILL KEEP THE NARROW BAND OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE H8 JET BREAKS
DOWN.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  CLOUDS WILL
BE AN ISSUE...BUT WILL GO FOR MID 70S EAST AND LOW 80S WEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTER
GRADIENT IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SFC BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK INTO NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO
A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW. KINEMATIC FORCING WILL INCREASE
OVER NW IA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IN ADDITION
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH THE AID OF A SLIGHTLY COUPLED JET.
MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG CONCURRENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 35 KTS WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH GOOD VERTICAL
ACCELERATION AT TIMES. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD 12Z THEN NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 12-20Z WITH A LACK OF SFC
CONVERGENCE...SOME LOW LEVEL CAPPING AND A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THE BOUNDARY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN IOWA BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE
LOW TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL
DROP QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY...ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT CONDITIONS. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK EAST WHILE THE WESTERN CUTOFF LOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY OVER THE WEST AND
TO THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 20/00Z.  SFC WIND WILL
INCREASE AFT 15Z TO 15G25KTS ACROSS TAF SITES AS WARMER AIR SURGES
IN...PEAKING BETWEEN 20-22Z AROUND 20KTS SUSTAINED.  WINDS STAY UP
HIGHER THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT SO DESPITE THE EXISTENCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...WE SHOULD NOT SEE THE LOW VSBYS WE DID LAST NIGHT
HOWEVER WINDS DO DIMINISH A BIT BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SO I DID PUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIG/VSBY DURING THIS TIME.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS SEP 14
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 190815
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
315 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE STATE TODAY WILL DRAW WARMER AND MORE MOIST
AIR.  FIRST ISSUE IS WITH THE STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION INTO THE
THE STATE THIS MORNING.  THIS IS A CONDITIONAL
SITUATION...HOWEVER SOUNDINGS INDICATE A CASE FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION IF THE SATURATION CAN OCCUR CLOSE TO THE H8 LEVEL.
SAT PIX INDICATE SOME POSSIBILITY AS AC STREAMS DOWN FROM
THE NORTH AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING INTO ERN NEBRASKA AND
FAR WESTERN IA IS IN PLACE.  WILL KEEP THE NARROW BAND OF
ISOLATED CONVECTION FOR A FEW HOURS UNTIL THE H8 JET BREAKS
DOWN.  HIGHS TODAY WILL BE WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.  CLOUDS WILL
BE AN ISSUE...BUT WILL GO FOR MID 70S EAST AND LOW 80S WEST.
WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH TIGHTER
GRADIENT IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 315 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

SFC BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK INTO NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT AS AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORT WAVE SUPPRESSES THE UPPER RIDGE LEADING TO
A TRANSITION TO NORTHWEST FLOW. KINEMATIC FORCING WILL INCREASE
OVER NW IA WITH THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE IN ADDITION
TO UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH THE AID OF A SLIGHTLY COUPLED JET.
MUCAPES IN EXCESS OF 1500 J/KG CONCURRENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
FORCING AND SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR GREATER THAN 35 KTS WILL
BE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS WITH GOOD VERTICAL
ACCELERATION AT TIMES. THIS COULD RESULT IN AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM OR TWO. ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH TOWARD 12Z THEN NOT
EXPECTING MUCH PRECIPITATION BETWEEN 12-20Z WITH A LACK OF SFC
CONVERGENCE...SOME LOW LEVEL CAPPING AND A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT. DIURNAL HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO ACTIVATE THE BOUNDARY
OVER FAR SOUTHERN IOWA BY MID TO LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE ACTIVITY SHIFTS SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY WILL BE WARM AND RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO THE
LOW TO MID 80S CENTRAL AND SOUTH. ANOTHER VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL
DROP QUICKLY INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. WITH ITS CURRENT TRAJECTORY...ANY PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM SHOULD REMAIN NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ORIGINATING FROM THE PACIFIC WILL ARRIVE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE
THROUGH TUESDAY AND WILL RESULT IN PLEASANT CONDITIONS. THE UPPER
FLOW WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVE DURING THIS PERIOD THOUGH AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO SHIFT BACK EAST WHILE THE WESTERN CUTOFF LOW
BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A
RETURN FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES BY LATE TUESDAY OVER THE WEST AND
TO THE ENTIRE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 20/00Z.  SFC WIND WILL
INCREASE AFT 15Z TO 15G25KTS ACROSS TAF SITES AS WARMER AIR SURGES
IN...PEAKING BETWEEN 20-22Z AROUND 20KTS SUSTAINED.  WINDS STAY UP
HIGHER THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT SO DESPITE THE EXISTENCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...WE SHOULD NOT SEE THE LOW VSBYS WE DID LAST NIGHT
HOWEVER WINDS DO DIMINISH A BIT BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SO I DID PUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIG/VSBY DURING THIS TIME.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS SEP 14
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 190447
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1145 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WITH THURSDAY EVENING EXPECTING TO BE QUIET...ONLY FCST ISSUES
ARE POPS TONIGHT AFTER 06Z FRI AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPING IN SOME LOCATIONS AFTER 09Z FRI OR SO. IN TERMS OF POPS
TONIGHT...DROPPED THEM OUT OF SLIGHT WORDING AS NOT FINDING
SUFFICIENT METEOROLOGICAL SUPPORT TO KEEP THEM IN THE FCST. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A WEAK BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT PROPAGATING INTO WESTERN IOWA AFTER 06Z
FRI. LONG STORY SHORT...NOT MUCH ELSE TO SUPPORT POPS OVER DMX
CWA. BEST FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST OF CWA THROUGH 12Z FRI.
AFTER SUNRISE...STRONG CAPPING INDICATED...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS
DOWN.

OTHER FCST ISSUE IS FOG. MAJOR NEGATIVE HERE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS.
WINDS ARE SLATED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 06KT TO 08KT RANGE...WHICH IS
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF RADIATIONAL FOG. SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALSO NOT
HELP AS IT WILL INCREASE THERMAL CONDUCTIVITY OF THE SFC. IN SUPPORT
OF FOG WILL BE TONIGHT/S EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND NARROW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SFC. SOILS AND VEGETATION SHOULD STILL BE DAMP
ENOUGH TO HELP WITH SATURATION AS WELL. OVERALL...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS...INCLUDING DES MOINES...SHOULD BE
AROUND 0 TO 2 DEGREES WHICH COULD SUPPORT PATCHY FOG WHEN WINDS
ARE LIGHTEST...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND OPEN FIELDS. AS OF
NOW...HAVE TIMING OF FOG FROM ROUGHLY 08/09Z TO 12/13Z AND
LOCATIONS FROM AMES TO DES MOINES TO LAMONI AND OTTUMWA IN PATCHY
FOG.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER OF ANY CONCERN WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WRN US/CANADIAN LONG
WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST PHASED...HOWEVER ERN PACIFIC JET WILL
REACH BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY FRI PUSHING WRN CANADA PORTION INTO THE
NRN PLAINS LEAVING CA CUTOFF BEHIND.  FRI SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER
WEAK/MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING REACHES NRN IA
DURING THE EVENING AND SLOWLY SLIDES NW-SE THROUGH THE STATE INTO
SAT.  SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD BE MARGINAL
SO ANY CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT.  WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SPOT WIND OR HAIL REPORT
HOWEVER DUE TO DRY AIR AND FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION COMES INTO PLAY SE DURING PEAK HEATING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPES REACH 2500-3500 J/KG DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE WITH LITTLE MLCINH. SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK
HOWEVER THOUGH SHARP THERMODYNAMIC SUBSIDENCE/LIFT COUPLET ALOFT
AND OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING COULD HELP THINGS ALONG. WHATEVER
DOES FORM SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A MORE SUMMER-
LIKE FEEL AS 60S DEWPOINTS RETURN. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURE WISE HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE DRIER NW FLOW. THE NEXT PRECIP WINDOW WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CA CUTOFF LOW FINALLY LIFTS THROUGH THE ROCKIES
RIDGE INTO THE MO VALLEY BY WED AND THU. THERMODYNAMIC FORCING
SEEMS BEST AROUND WED ALTHOUGH BROAD SLIGHTLY ACTIVE SW FLOW WILL
STAY IN PLACE INTO THU AS WELL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WOULD STAY
ELEVATED WITH ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL WELL TO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 20/00Z.  SFC WIND WILL
INCREASE AFT 15Z TO 15G25KTS ACROSS TAF SITES AS WARMER AIR SURGES
IN...PEAKING BETWEEN 20-22Z AROUND 20KTS SUSTAINED.  WINDS STAY UP
HIGHER THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT SO DESPITE THE EXISTENCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...WE SHOULD NOT SEE THE LOW VSBYS WE DID LAST NIGHT
HOWEVER WINDS DO DIMINISH A BIT BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SO I DID PUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIG/VSBY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 190447
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1145 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WITH THURSDAY EVENING EXPECTING TO BE QUIET...ONLY FCST ISSUES
ARE POPS TONIGHT AFTER 06Z FRI AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPING IN SOME LOCATIONS AFTER 09Z FRI OR SO. IN TERMS OF POPS
TONIGHT...DROPPED THEM OUT OF SLIGHT WORDING AS NOT FINDING
SUFFICIENT METEOROLOGICAL SUPPORT TO KEEP THEM IN THE FCST. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A WEAK BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT PROPAGATING INTO WESTERN IOWA AFTER 06Z
FRI. LONG STORY SHORT...NOT MUCH ELSE TO SUPPORT POPS OVER DMX
CWA. BEST FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST OF CWA THROUGH 12Z FRI.
AFTER SUNRISE...STRONG CAPPING INDICATED...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS
DOWN.

OTHER FCST ISSUE IS FOG. MAJOR NEGATIVE HERE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS.
WINDS ARE SLATED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 06KT TO 08KT RANGE...WHICH IS
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF RADIATIONAL FOG. SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALSO NOT
HELP AS IT WILL INCREASE THERMAL CONDUCTIVITY OF THE SFC. IN SUPPORT
OF FOG WILL BE TONIGHT/S EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND NARROW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SFC. SOILS AND VEGETATION SHOULD STILL BE DAMP
ENOUGH TO HELP WITH SATURATION AS WELL. OVERALL...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS...INCLUDING DES MOINES...SHOULD BE
AROUND 0 TO 2 DEGREES WHICH COULD SUPPORT PATCHY FOG WHEN WINDS
ARE LIGHTEST...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND OPEN FIELDS. AS OF
NOW...HAVE TIMING OF FOG FROM ROUGHLY 08/09Z TO 12/13Z AND
LOCATIONS FROM AMES TO DES MOINES TO LAMONI AND OTTUMWA IN PATCHY
FOG.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER OF ANY CONCERN WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WRN US/CANADIAN LONG
WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST PHASED...HOWEVER ERN PACIFIC JET WILL
REACH BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY FRI PUSHING WRN CANADA PORTION INTO THE
NRN PLAINS LEAVING CA CUTOFF BEHIND.  FRI SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER
WEAK/MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING REACHES NRN IA
DURING THE EVENING AND SLOWLY SLIDES NW-SE THROUGH THE STATE INTO
SAT.  SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD BE MARGINAL
SO ANY CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT.  WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SPOT WIND OR HAIL REPORT
HOWEVER DUE TO DRY AIR AND FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION COMES INTO PLAY SE DURING PEAK HEATING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPES REACH 2500-3500 J/KG DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE WITH LITTLE MLCINH. SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK
HOWEVER THOUGH SHARP THERMODYNAMIC SUBSIDENCE/LIFT COUPLET ALOFT
AND OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING COULD HELP THINGS ALONG. WHATEVER
DOES FORM SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A MORE SUMMER-
LIKE FEEL AS 60S DEWPOINTS RETURN. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURE WISE HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE DRIER NW FLOW. THE NEXT PRECIP WINDOW WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CA CUTOFF LOW FINALLY LIFTS THROUGH THE ROCKIES
RIDGE INTO THE MO VALLEY BY WED AND THU. THERMODYNAMIC FORCING
SEEMS BEST AROUND WED ALTHOUGH BROAD SLIGHTLY ACTIVE SW FLOW WILL
STAY IN PLACE INTO THU AS WELL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WOULD STAY
ELEVATED WITH ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL WELL TO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...19/06Z
ISSUED AT 1145 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 20/00Z.  SFC WIND WILL
INCREASE AFT 15Z TO 15G25KTS ACROSS TAF SITES AS WARMER AIR SURGES
IN...PEAKING BETWEEN 20-22Z AROUND 20KTS SUSTAINED.  WINDS STAY UP
HIGHER THAN THEY DID LAST NIGHT SO DESPITE THE EXISTENCE OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...WE SHOULD NOT SEE THE LOW VSBYS WE DID LAST NIGHT
HOWEVER WINDS DO DIMINISH A BIT BETWEEN 10Z AND 13Z SO I DID PUT A
BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIG/VSBY DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 182347
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
341 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WITH THURSDAY EVENING EXPECTING TO BE QUIET...ONLY FCST ISSUES
ARE POPS TONIGHT AFTER 06Z FRI AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPING IN SOME LOCATIONS AFTER 09Z FRI OR SO. IN TERMS OF POPS
TONIGHT...DROPPED THEM OUT OF SLIGHT WORDING AS NOT FINDING
SUFFICIENT METEOROLOGICAL SUPPORT TO KEEP THEM IN THE FCST. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A WEAK BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT PROPAGATING INTO WESTERN IOWA AFTER 06Z
FRI. LONG STORY SHORT...NOT MUCH ELSE TO SUPPORT POPS OVER DMX
CWA. BEST FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST OF CWA THROUGH 12Z FRI.
AFTER SUNRISE...STRONG CAPPING INDICATED...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS
DOWN.

OTHER FCST ISSUE IS FOG. MAJOR NEGATIVE HERE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS.
WINDS ARE SLATED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 06KT TO 08KT RANGE...WHICH IS
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF RADIATIONAL FOG. SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALSO NOT
HELP AS IT WILL INCREASE THERMAL CONDUCTIVITY OF THE SFC. IN SUPPORT
OF FOG WILL BE TONIGHT/S EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND NARROW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SFC. SOILS AND VEGETATION SHOULD STILL BE DAMP
ENOUGH TO HELP WITH SATURATION AS WELL. OVERALL...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS...INCLUDING DES MOINES...SHOULD BE
AROUND 0 TO 2 DEGREES WHICH COULD SUPPORT PATCHY FOG WHEN WINDS
ARE LIGHTEST...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND OPEN FIELDS. AS OF
NOW...HAVE TIMING OF FOG FROM ROUGHLY 08/09Z TO 12/13Z AND
LOCATIONS FROM AMES TO DES MOINES TO LAMONI AND OTTUMWA IN PATCHY
FOG.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER OF ANY CONCERN WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WRN US/CANADIAN LONG
WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST PHASED...HOWEVER ERN PACIFIC JET WILL
REACH BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY FRI PUSHING WRN CANADA PORTION INTO THE
NRN PLAINS LEAVING CA CUTOFF BEHIND.  FRI SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER
WEAK/MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING REACHES NRN IA
DURING THE EVENING AND SLOWLY SLIDES NW-SE THROUGH THE STATE INTO
SAT.  SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD BE MARGINAL
SO ANY CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT.  WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SPOT WIND OR HAIL REPORT
HOWEVER DUE TO DRY AIR AND FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION COMES INTO PLAY SE DURING PEAK HEATING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPES REACH 2500-3500 J/KG DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE WITH LITTLE MLCINH. SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK
HOWEVER THOUGH SHARP THERMODYNAMIC SUBSIDENCE/LIFT COUPLET ALOFT
AND OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING COULD HELP THINGS ALONG. WHATEVER
DOES FORM SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A MORE SUMMER-
LIKE FEEL AS 60S DEWPOINTS RETURN. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURE WISE HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE DRIER NW FLOW. THE NEXT PRECIP WINDOW WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CA CUTOFF LOW FINALLY LIFTS THROUGH THE ROCKIES
RIDGE INTO THE MO VALLEY BY WED AND THU. THERMODYNAMIC FORCING
SEEMS BEST AROUND WED ALTHOUGH BROAD SLIGHTLY ACTIVE SW FLOW WILL
STAY IN PLACE INTO THU AS WELL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WOULD STAY
ELEVATED WITH ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL WELL TO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...19/00Z
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SFC WIND WILL
INCREASE FRI MORNING TO 15G25KTS ACROSS TAF SITES AS WARMER AIR
SURGES IN.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN TONIGHT BUT SFC
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 8-10KTS WHICH IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.  I DO HAVE A BRIEF MVFR PERIOD TONIGHT WHEN I
FELT WINDS WOULD BE LIGHTEST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 182347
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
341 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WITH THURSDAY EVENING EXPECTING TO BE QUIET...ONLY FCST ISSUES
ARE POPS TONIGHT AFTER 06Z FRI AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPING IN SOME LOCATIONS AFTER 09Z FRI OR SO. IN TERMS OF POPS
TONIGHT...DROPPED THEM OUT OF SLIGHT WORDING AS NOT FINDING
SUFFICIENT METEOROLOGICAL SUPPORT TO KEEP THEM IN THE FCST. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A WEAK BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT PROPAGATING INTO WESTERN IOWA AFTER 06Z
FRI. LONG STORY SHORT...NOT MUCH ELSE TO SUPPORT POPS OVER DMX
CWA. BEST FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST OF CWA THROUGH 12Z FRI.
AFTER SUNRISE...STRONG CAPPING INDICATED...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS
DOWN.

OTHER FCST ISSUE IS FOG. MAJOR NEGATIVE HERE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS.
WINDS ARE SLATED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 06KT TO 08KT RANGE...WHICH IS
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF RADIATIONAL FOG. SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALSO NOT
HELP AS IT WILL INCREASE THERMAL CONDUCTIVITY OF THE SFC. IN SUPPORT
OF FOG WILL BE TONIGHT/S EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND NARROW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SFC. SOILS AND VEGETATION SHOULD STILL BE DAMP
ENOUGH TO HELP WITH SATURATION AS WELL. OVERALL...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS...INCLUDING DES MOINES...SHOULD BE
AROUND 0 TO 2 DEGREES WHICH COULD SUPPORT PATCHY FOG WHEN WINDS
ARE LIGHTEST...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND OPEN FIELDS. AS OF
NOW...HAVE TIMING OF FOG FROM ROUGHLY 08/09Z TO 12/13Z AND
LOCATIONS FROM AMES TO DES MOINES TO LAMONI AND OTTUMWA IN PATCHY
FOG.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER OF ANY CONCERN WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WRN US/CANADIAN LONG
WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST PHASED...HOWEVER ERN PACIFIC JET WILL
REACH BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY FRI PUSHING WRN CANADA PORTION INTO THE
NRN PLAINS LEAVING CA CUTOFF BEHIND.  FRI SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER
WEAK/MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING REACHES NRN IA
DURING THE EVENING AND SLOWLY SLIDES NW-SE THROUGH THE STATE INTO
SAT.  SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD BE MARGINAL
SO ANY CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT.  WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SPOT WIND OR HAIL REPORT
HOWEVER DUE TO DRY AIR AND FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION COMES INTO PLAY SE DURING PEAK HEATING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPES REACH 2500-3500 J/KG DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE WITH LITTLE MLCINH. SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK
HOWEVER THOUGH SHARP THERMODYNAMIC SUBSIDENCE/LIFT COUPLET ALOFT
AND OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING COULD HELP THINGS ALONG. WHATEVER
DOES FORM SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A MORE SUMMER-
LIKE FEEL AS 60S DEWPOINTS RETURN. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURE WISE HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE DRIER NW FLOW. THE NEXT PRECIP WINDOW WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CA CUTOFF LOW FINALLY LIFTS THROUGH THE ROCKIES
RIDGE INTO THE MO VALLEY BY WED AND THU. THERMODYNAMIC FORCING
SEEMS BEST AROUND WED ALTHOUGH BROAD SLIGHTLY ACTIVE SW FLOW WILL
STAY IN PLACE INTO THU AS WELL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WOULD STAY
ELEVATED WITH ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL WELL TO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...19/00Z
ISSUED AT 645 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.  SFC WIND WILL
INCREASE FRI MORNING TO 15G25KTS ACROSS TAF SITES AS WARMER AIR
SURGES IN.  THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG AGAIN TONIGHT BUT SFC
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 8-10KTS WHICH IS NOT AS CONDUCIVE FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG.  I DO HAVE A BRIEF MVFR PERIOD TONIGHT WHEN I
FELT WINDS WOULD BE LIGHTEST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 182041
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
341 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WITH THURSDAY EVENING EXPECTING TO BE QUIET...ONLY FCST ISSUES
ARE POPS TONIGHT AFTER 06Z FRI AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPING IN SOME LOCATIONS AFTER 09Z FRI OR SO. IN TERMS OF POPS
TONIGHT...DROPPED THEM OUT OF SLIGHT WORDING AS NOT FINDING
SUFFICIENT METEOROLOGICAL SUPPORT TO KEEP THEM IN THE FCST. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A WEAK BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT PROPAGATING INTO WESTERN IOWA AFTER 06Z
FRI. LONG STORY SHORT...NOT MUCH ELSE TO SUPPORT POPS OVER DMX
CWA. BEST FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST OF CWA THROUGH 12Z FRI.
AFTER SUNRISE...STRONG CAPPING INDICATED...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS
DOWN.

OTHER FCST ISSUE IS FOG. MAJOR NEGATIVE HERE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS.
WINDS ARE SLATED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 06KT TO 08KT RANGE...WHICH IS
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF RADIATIONAL FOG. SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALSO NOT
HELP AS IT WILL INCREASE THERMAL CONDUCTIVITY OF THE SFC. IN SUPPORT
OF FOG WILL BE TONIGHT/S EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND NARROW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SFC. SOILS AND VEGETATION SHOULD STILL BE DAMP
ENOUGH TO HELP WITH SATURATION AS WELL. OVERALL...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS...INCLUDING DES MOINES...SHOULD BE
AROUND 0 TO 2 DEGREES WHICH COULD SUPPORT PATCHY FOG WHEN WINDS
ARE LIGHTEST...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND OPEN FIELDS. AS OF
NOW...HAVE TIMING OF FOG FROM ROUGHLY 08/09Z TO 12/13Z AND
LOCATIONS FROM AMES TO DES MOINES TO LAMONI AND OTTUMWA IN PATCHY
FOG.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER OF ANY CONCERN WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WRN US/CANADIAN LONG
WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST PHASED...HOWEVER ERN PACIFIC JET WILL
REACH BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY FRI PUSHING WRN CANADA PORTION INTO THE
NRN PLAINS LEAVING CA CUTOFF BEHIND.  FRI SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER
WEAK/MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING REACHES NRN IA
DURING THE EVENING AND SLOWLY SLIDES NW-SE THROUGH THE STATE INTO
SAT.  SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD BE MARGINAL
SO ANY CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT.  WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SPOT WIND OR HAIL REPORT
HOWEVER DUE TO DRY AIR AND FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION COMES INTO PLAY SE DURING PEAK HEATING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPES REACH 2500-3500 J/KG DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE WITH LITTLE MLCINH. SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK
HOWEVER THOUGH SHARP THERMODYNAMIC SUBSIDENCE/LIFT COUPLET ALOFT
AND OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING COULD HELP THINGS ALONG. WHATEVER
DOES FORM SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A MORE SUMMER-
LIKE FEEL AS 60S DEWPOINTS RETURN. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURE WISE HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE DRIER NW FLOW. THE NEXT PRECIP WINDOW WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CA CUTOFF LOW FINALLY LIFTS THROUGH THE ROCKIES
RIDGE INTO THE MO VALLEY BY WED AND THU. THERMODYNAMIC FORCING
SEEMS BEST AROUND WED ALTHOUGH BROAD SLIGHTLY ACTIVE SW FLOW WILL
STAY IN PLACE INTO THU AS WELL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WOULD STAY
ELEVATED WITH ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL WELL TO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...18/18Z
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKC TO A FEW CU...ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS...EXPECTED THROUGH
09Z FRI. MAJOR FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE FOG FOR FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY SITES
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...DWPT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE ZERO TO A FEW
DEGREES. MAJOR INHIBITOR OF FOG WILL BE WINDS...WHICH WILL BE
BLOWING IN THE 6KT TO 8KT RANGE. LOWEST WINDS AT KDSM...SO WENT
3SM VSBY THERE. OTHERWISE DROPPED REST OF TAF SITES TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH EXPECTATION OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO TWEAK
TAFS WHEN FCST BECOMES MORE CLEAR. LOOKS LIKE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
13Z TO 14Z AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20KTS TO 25KTS
TO MOVE IN FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 182041
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
341 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WITH THURSDAY EVENING EXPECTING TO BE QUIET...ONLY FCST ISSUES
ARE POPS TONIGHT AFTER 06Z FRI AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG
DEVELOPING IN SOME LOCATIONS AFTER 09Z FRI OR SO. IN TERMS OF POPS
TONIGHT...DROPPED THEM OUT OF SLIGHT WORDING AS NOT FINDING
SUFFICIENT METEOROLOGICAL SUPPORT TO KEEP THEM IN THE FCST. MODELS
IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWING A WEAK BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED ISENTROPIC LIFT PROPAGATING INTO WESTERN IOWA AFTER 06Z
FRI. LONG STORY SHORT...NOT MUCH ELSE TO SUPPORT POPS OVER DMX
CWA. BEST FORCING APPEARS TO REMAIN WEST OF CWA THROUGH 12Z FRI.
AFTER SUNRISE...STRONG CAPPING INDICATED...WHICH WILL KEEP POPS
DOWN.

OTHER FCST ISSUE IS FOG. MAJOR NEGATIVE HERE WILL BE WIND SPEEDS.
WINDS ARE SLATED TO BOTTOM OUT IN THE 06KT TO 08KT RANGE...WHICH IS
NOT VERY SUPPORTIVE OF RADIATIONAL FOG. SUNSHINE TODAY WILL ALSO NOT
HELP AS IT WILL INCREASE THERMAL CONDUCTIVITY OF THE SFC. IN SUPPORT
OF FOG WILL BE TONIGHT/S EXPECTED CLEAR SKIES AND NARROW DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS AT THE SFC. SOILS AND VEGETATION SHOULD STILL BE DAMP
ENOUGH TO HELP WITH SATURATION AS WELL. OVERALL...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS IN SOME LOCATIONS...INCLUDING DES MOINES...SHOULD BE
AROUND 0 TO 2 DEGREES WHICH COULD SUPPORT PATCHY FOG WHEN WINDS
ARE LIGHTEST...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS AND OPEN FIELDS. AS OF
NOW...HAVE TIMING OF FOG FROM ROUGHLY 08/09Z TO 12/13Z AND
LOCATIONS FROM AMES TO DES MOINES TO LAMONI AND OTTUMWA IN PATCHY
FOG.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 340 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

ONLY SENSIBLE WEATHER OF ANY CONCERN WILL BE EARLY IN THE WEEKEND
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.  WRN US/CANADIAN LONG
WAVE TROUGH IS CURRENTLY JUST PHASED...HOWEVER ERN PACIFIC JET WILL
REACH BRITISH COLUMBIA EARLY FRI PUSHING WRN CANADA PORTION INTO THE
NRN PLAINS LEAVING CA CUTOFF BEHIND.  FRI SHOULD BE DRY...HOWEVER
WEAK/MODERATE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC FORCING REACHES NRN IA
DURING THE EVENING AND SLOWLY SLIDES NW-SE THROUGH THE STATE INTO
SAT.  SOUNDINGS SHOW MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD BE MARGINAL
SO ANY CONVECTION WOULD APPEAR TO BE ELEVATED AND MAINLY NON-SEVERE
THROUGH MIDDAY SAT.  WOULD NOT RULE OUT A SPOT WIND OR HAIL REPORT
HOWEVER DUE TO DRY AIR AND FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION COMES INTO PLAY SE DURING PEAK HEATING
FRONTAL PASSAGE. MLCAPES REACH 2500-3500 J/KG DEPENDING ON MODEL OF
CHOICE WITH LITTLE MLCINH. SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS SOMEWHAT WEAK
HOWEVER THOUGH SHARP THERMODYNAMIC SUBSIDENCE/LIFT COUPLET ALOFT
AND OVERALL LARGE SCALE FORCING COULD HELP THINGS ALONG. WHATEVER
DOES FORM SHOULD BE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY EVENING WITH
FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE START OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH A MORE SUMMER-
LIKE FEEL AS 60S DEWPOINTS RETURN. THE AIRMASS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL ONLY MODERATE SLIGHTLY TEMPERATURE WISE HOWEVER WITH THE MAIN
DIFFERENCE DRIER NW FLOW. THE NEXT PRECIP WINDOW WILL NOT ARRIVE
UNTIL AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CA CUTOFF LOW FINALLY LIFTS THROUGH THE ROCKIES
RIDGE INTO THE MO VALLEY BY WED AND THU. THERMODYNAMIC FORCING
SEEMS BEST AROUND WED ALTHOUGH BROAD SLIGHTLY ACTIVE SW FLOW WILL
STAY IN PLACE INTO THU AS WELL. ANYTHING THAT DOES FORM WOULD STAY
ELEVATED WITH ANY LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE STILL WELL TO THE WEST.

&&

.AVIATION...18/18Z
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKC TO A FEW CU...ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS...EXPECTED THROUGH
09Z FRI. MAJOR FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE FOG FOR FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY SITES
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...DWPT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE ZERO TO A FEW
DEGREES. MAJOR INHIBITOR OF FOG WILL BE WINDS...WHICH WILL BE
BLOWING IN THE 6KT TO 8KT RANGE. LOWEST WINDS AT KDSM...SO WENT
3SM VSBY THERE. OTHERWISE DROPPED REST OF TAF SITES TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH EXPECTATION OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO TWEAK
TAFS WHEN FCST BECOMES MORE CLEAR. LOOKS LIKE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
13Z TO 14Z AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20KTS TO 25KTS
TO MOVE IN FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KOTENBERG
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...KOTENBERG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 181724
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1224 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG RIVERS.  DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT SOME LOCAL VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4
MILE AT TIMES.  COOL SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK BACK TO A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
IN MANY LOCATIONS.  DRIER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO KEEP WAA
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE
OVER WESTERN IA AFT 06Z. EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH THE BAND OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BUILDS INTO THE STATE
AND EFFECTIVELY CAPS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SHORT WAVE ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THE
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE MODEST WITH NO STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE FRONT AND A LACK OF KINEMATIC FORCING ACROSS THE STATE. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR A STATICALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE A MORE PRIMED REGION FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DECAYING CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN IOWA SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PEAK HEATING
REDEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN IA BY MID AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING THE
BOUNDARY TO BE VERY ACTIVE BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS. THE MOISTURE
AXIS IS RELATIVELY NARROW WITH THE TROPICAL ELEMENTS BLOCKED TO
THE SOUTH...THUS ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE NARROWLY FOCUSED WITH MOST
OF THE DAY DRY. GOOD MIXING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS WELL WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING THE 80S.

ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AND WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS HIGH IS OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN THUS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS AND VERY
WELL MAY HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEREFORE EXPECT AN OUTSTANDING START TO THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE STATE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO LIFT GULF
MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...18/18Z
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKC TO A FEW CU...ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS...EXPECTED THROUGH
09Z FRI. MAJOR FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE FOG FOR FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY SITES
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...DWPT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE ZERO TO A FEW
DEGREES. MAJOR INHIBITOR OF FOG WILL BE WINDS...WHICH WILL BE
BLOWING IN THE 6KT TO 8KT RANGE. LOWEST WINDS AT KDSM...SO WENT
3SM VSBY THERE. OTHERWISE DROPPED REST OF TAF SITES TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH EXPECTATION OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO TWEAK
TAFS WHEN FCST BECOMES MORE CLEAR. LOOKS LIKE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
13Z TO 14Z AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20KTS TO 25KTS
TO MOVE IN FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...MS SEP 14
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...KOTENBERG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 181724
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1224 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATED FOR AVIATION...

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG RIVERS.  DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT SOME LOCAL VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4
MILE AT TIMES.  COOL SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK BACK TO A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
IN MANY LOCATIONS.  DRIER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO KEEP WAA
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE
OVER WESTERN IA AFT 06Z. EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH THE BAND OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BUILDS INTO THE STATE
AND EFFECTIVELY CAPS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SHORT WAVE ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THE
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE MODEST WITH NO STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE FRONT AND A LACK OF KINEMATIC FORCING ACROSS THE STATE. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR A STATICALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE A MORE PRIMED REGION FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DECAYING CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN IOWA SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PEAK HEATING
REDEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN IA BY MID AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING THE
BOUNDARY TO BE VERY ACTIVE BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS. THE MOISTURE
AXIS IS RELATIVELY NARROW WITH THE TROPICAL ELEMENTS BLOCKED TO
THE SOUTH...THUS ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE NARROWLY FOCUSED WITH MOST
OF THE DAY DRY. GOOD MIXING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS WELL WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING THE 80S.

ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AND WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS HIGH IS OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN THUS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS AND VERY
WELL MAY HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEREFORE EXPECT AN OUTSTANDING START TO THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE STATE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO LIFT GULF
MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...18/18Z
ISSUED AT 1217 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

SKC TO A FEW CU...ALONG WITH VFR CONDITIONS...EXPECTED THROUGH
09Z FRI. MAJOR FCST CHALLENGE WILL BE FOG FOR FRIDAY MORNING. WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED ACROSS TAF SITES...ESPECIALLY SITES
EAST OF INTERSTATE 35...DWPT DEPRESSIONS WILL BE ZERO TO A FEW
DEGREES. MAJOR INHIBITOR OF FOG WILL BE WINDS...WHICH WILL BE
BLOWING IN THE 6KT TO 8KT RANGE. LOWEST WINDS AT KDSM...SO WENT
3SM VSBY THERE. OTHERWISE DROPPED REST OF TAF SITES TO MVFR
CONDITIONS WITH EXPECTATION OF EVENING/OVERNIGHT SHIFT TO TWEAK
TAFS WHEN FCST BECOMES MORE CLEAR. LOOKS LIKE FOG SHOULD LIFT BY
13Z TO 14Z AND STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20KTS TO 25KTS
TO MOVE IN FOR THE REST OF FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...MS SEP 14
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...KOTENBERG




000
FXUS63 KDMX 181158
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
658 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED COMING TO REFLECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG RIVERS.  DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT SOME LOCAL VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4
MILE AT TIMES.  COOL SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK BACK TO A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
IN MANY LOCATIONS.  DRIER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO KEEP WAA
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE
OVER WESTERN IA AFT 06Z. EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH THE BAND OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BUILDS INTO THE STATE
AND EFFECTIVELY CAPS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SHORT WAVE ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THE
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE MODEST WITH NO STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE FRONT AND A LACK OF KINEMATIC FORCING ACROSS THE STATE. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR A STATICALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE A MORE PRIMED REGION FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DECAYING CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN IOWA SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PEAK HEATING
REDEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN IA BY MID AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING THE
BOUNDARY TO BE VERY ACTIVE BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS. THE MOISTURE
AXIS IS RELATIVELY NARROW WITH THE TROPICAL ELEMENTS BLOCKED TO
THE SOUTH...THUS ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE NARROWLY FOCUSED WITH MOST
OF THE DAY DRY. GOOD MIXING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS WELL WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING THE 80S.

ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AND WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS HIGH IS OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN THUS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS AND VERY
WELL MAY HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEREFORE EXPECT AN OUTSTANDING START TO THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE STATE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO LIFT GULF
MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...18/12Z
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY 14Z-15Z. HIGH PRESSURE FROM ONTARIO INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE EAST WITH FLOW TURNING SSELY. VFR
CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING UNTIL AFTER 06Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AREA EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...MS SEP 14
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...MS SEP 14





000
FXUS63 KDMX 181158
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
658 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 658 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UPDATED COMING TO REFLECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG RIVERS.  DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT SOME LOCAL VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4
MILE AT TIMES.  COOL SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK BACK TO A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
IN MANY LOCATIONS.  DRIER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO KEEP WAA
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE
OVER WESTERN IA AFT 06Z. EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH THE BAND OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BUILDS INTO THE STATE
AND EFFECTIVELY CAPS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SHORT WAVE ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THE
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE MODEST WITH NO STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE FRONT AND A LACK OF KINEMATIC FORCING ACROSS THE STATE. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR A STATICALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE A MORE PRIMED REGION FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DECAYING CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN IOWA SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PEAK HEATING
REDEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN IA BY MID AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING THE
BOUNDARY TO BE VERY ACTIVE BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS. THE MOISTURE
AXIS IS RELATIVELY NARROW WITH THE TROPICAL ELEMENTS BLOCKED TO
THE SOUTH...THUS ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE NARROWLY FOCUSED WITH MOST
OF THE DAY DRY. GOOD MIXING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS WELL WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING THE 80S.

ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AND WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS HIGH IS OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN THUS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS AND VERY
WELL MAY HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEREFORE EXPECT AN OUTSTANDING START TO THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE STATE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO LIFT GULF
MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...18/12Z
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY 14Z-15Z. HIGH PRESSURE FROM ONTARIO INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE EAST WITH FLOW TURNING SSELY. VFR
CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING UNTIL AFTER 06Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AREA EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MS SEP 14
SHORT TERM...MS SEP 14
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...MS SEP 14




000
FXUS63 KDMX 181128
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
628 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG RIVERS.  DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT SOME LOCAL VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4
MILE AT TIMES.  COOL SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK BACK TO A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
IN MANY LOCATIONS.  DRIER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO KEEP WAA
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE
OVER WESTERN IA AFT 06Z. EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH THE BAND OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BUILDS INTO THE STATE
AND EFFECTIVELY CAPS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SHORT WAVE ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THE
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE MODEST WITH NO STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE FRONT AND A LACK OF KINEMATIC FORCING ACROSS THE STATE. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR A STATICALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE A MORE PRIMED REGION FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DECAYING CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN IOWA SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PEAK HEATING
REDEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN IA BY MID AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING THE
BOUNDARY TO BE VERY ACTIVE BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS. THE MOISTURE
AXIS IS RELATIVELY NARROW WITH THE TROPICAL ELEMENTS BLOCKED TO
THE SOUTH...THUS ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE NARROWLY FOCUSED WITH MOST
OF THE DAY DRY. GOOD MIXING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS WELL WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING THE 80S.

ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AND WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS HIGH IS OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN THUS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS AND VERY
WELL MAY HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEREFORE EXPECT AN OUTSTANDING START TO THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE STATE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO LIFT GULF
MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...18/12Z
ISSUED AT 624 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR FOG CONDITIONS WITH PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS THIS
MORNING WILL IMPROVE BY 14Z-15Z. HIGH PRESSURE FROM ONTARIO INTO
THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL MOVE EAST WITH FLOW TURNING SSELY. VFR
CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING UNTIL AFTER 06Z. WILL LIKELY SEE SOME
FOG LATE TONIGHT...BUT NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS THIS MORNING...WITH
MVFR CONDITIONS.

OUTLOOK...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AREA EXPECTED ON FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE MORE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS FOR SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS SEP 14
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...MS SEP 14





000
FXUS63 KDMX 180859
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG RIVERS.  DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT SOME LOCAL VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4
MILE AT TIMES.  COOL SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK BACK TO A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
IN MANY LOCATIONS.  DRIER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO KEEP WAA
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE
OVER WESTERN IA AFT 06Z. EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH THE BAND OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BUILDS INTO THE STATE
AND EFFECTIVELY CAPS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SHORT WAVE ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THE
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE MODEST WITH NO STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE FRONT AND A LACK OF KINEMATIC FORCING ACROSS THE STATE. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR A STATICALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE A MORE PRIMED REGION FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DECAYING CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN IOWA SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PEAK HEATING
REDEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN IA BY MID AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING THE
BOUNDARY TO BE VERY ACTIVE BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS. THE MOISTURE
AXIS IS RELATIVELY NARROW WITH THE TROPICAL ELEMENTS BLOCKED TO
THE SOUTH...THUS ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE NARROWLY FOCUSED WITH MOST
OF THE DAY DRY. GOOD MIXING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS WELL WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING THE 80S.

ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AND WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS HIGH IS OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN THUS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS AND VERY
WELL MAY HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEREFORE EXPECT AN OUTSTANDING START TO THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE STATE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO LIFT GULF
MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...18/06Z
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS WRN IA TONIGHT.  MID CLOUDS ARE
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.  THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AROUND BUT WAY TOO ISOLATED TO
PUT IN TAFS...WHICH WOULD MAINLY ONLY AFFECT KFOD BRIEFLY FROM 06Z-
08Z.  PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST/EAST WITH SKIES
HAVING A BIT LESS CLOUDS AND WINDS BEING LIGHT.  THE FOG SHOULD
MOSTLY BE SHALLOW AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.  THE WIND WILL INCREASE
AFT 16-18Z TO AROUND 10 KTS.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS SEP 14
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 180859
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

COOL HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN ONTARIO THIS MORNING
WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SOUTH INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  HIGH WILL
MOVE EAST TODAY WITH RIDGING EXTENDING BACK INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
SOME FOG HAS FORMED IN LOW LYING AREAS AND ALONG RIVERS.  DO NOT
EXPECT TO SEE WIDESPREAD FOG...BUT SOME LOCAL VISIBILITY DOWN TO 1/4
MILE AT TIMES.  COOL SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH WILL
HOLD TEMPERATURES BACK BACK TO A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY
IN MANY LOCATIONS.  DRIER FLOW FROM THE SOUTHEAST WILL ALSO KEEP WAA
PRECIPITATION TO THE WEST OF THE CWA.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

GREAT LAKES HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE NORTHEAST CONUS
LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION WILL COMMENCE
OVER WESTERN IA AFT 06Z. EXPECT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WITH THE BAND OF MOISTURE ADVECTION. THE CHANCE FOR STORMS WILL
TRANSLATE EAST FRIDAY MORNING THEN SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
THE AFTERNOON AS THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER BUILDS INTO THE STATE
AND EFFECTIVELY CAPS THE AREA. THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SHORT WAVE ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. FORCING WITH THE
SYSTEM STILL LOOKS TO BE MODEST WITH NO STRONG CONVERGENCE NEAR
THE FRONT AND A LACK OF KINEMATIC FORCING ACROSS THE STATE. THE
MAIN FOCUS FOR A STATICALLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT IS FROM SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA THROUGH NORTHEAST IOWA AND INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS ON
SATURDAY AND SHOULD BE A MORE PRIMED REGION FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
ACTIVITY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME DECAYING CONVECTION OVER
NORTHERN IOWA SATURDAY MORNING FOLLOWED BY PEAK HEATING
REDEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN IA BY MID AFTERNOON. NOT EXPECTING THE
BOUNDARY TO BE VERY ACTIVE BETWEEN THE TWO PERIODS. THE MOISTURE
AXIS IS RELATIVELY NARROW WITH THE TROPICAL ELEMENTS BLOCKED TO
THE SOUTH...THUS ANY ACTIVITY WILL BE NARROWLY FOCUSED WITH MOST
OF THE DAY DRY. GOOD MIXING IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS WELL WITH MOST
LOCATIONS REACHING THE 80S.

ANOTHER LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW SUNDAY AND WILL BE
THE DOMINANT FEATURE THROUGH MID WEEK. THIS HIGH IS OF PACIFIC
ORIGIN THUS WILL NOT BE AS COOL AS THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS AND VERY
WELL MAY HAVE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEREFORE EXPECT AN OUTSTANDING START TO THE WEEK.
PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CREEP BACK INTO THE STATE LATE IN THE
PERIOD AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST AND RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO LIFT GULF
MOISTURE BACK TOWARD THE STATE.

&&

.AVIATION...18/06Z
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS WRN IA TONIGHT.  MID CLOUDS ARE
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.  THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AROUND BUT WAY TOO ISOLATED TO
PUT IN TAFS...WHICH WOULD MAINLY ONLY AFFECT KFOD BRIEFLY FROM 06Z-
08Z.  PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST/EAST WITH SKIES
HAVING A BIT LESS CLOUDS AND WINDS BEING LIGHT.  THE FOG SHOULD
MOSTLY BE SHALLOW AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.  THE WIND WILL INCREASE
AFT 16-18Z TO AROUND 10 KTS.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MS SEP 14
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 180445
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1143 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION COULD
BE THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHICH COULD SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AS A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA.
TEMPS ALOFT ARE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE CWA AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE WENT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
NORTHEASTERN CWA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINED FOCUSED ON THE PRECIP CHANCES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SMALL
DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP IN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THUS PRECIP
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/SREF AS GFS SEEMED TOO SLOW...EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER OVERALL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN IOWA PAST 06Z FRIDAY AND
SKIRT EAST INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND ENOUGH QG
FORCING PRESENT TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OVER WESTERN TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING HAS SLOWED ROUGHLY
3-6 HOURS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CUT BACK ON POPS TO JUST
NORTHWEST IOWA B/T 06-12Z FRIDAY. THINKING ANY PRECIP SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF I-80...ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH. LEFT OUT MENTION ATTM HOWEVER AS LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THE EXTENT.

COLD FRONT AND 500MB TROUGH ENTER THE STATE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH ACROSS IOWA BY 00Z SUNDAY AT THE LATEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IN
KANSAS/MISSOURI. TROUGH LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
REMNANTS FROM PUSHING ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN THAT. THUS HAVE
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF. MODELS BREAK APART PRECIP
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND LEANED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF/GFS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS VIA THE 17/12Z RUNS.

SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND DOMINATES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WENT
COMPLETELY DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO BE PASS OVER IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...18/06Z
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS WRN IA TONIGHT.  MID CLOUDS ARE
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.  THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AROUND BUT WAY TOO ISOLATED TO
PUT IN TAFS...WHICH WOULD MAINLY ONLY AFFECT KFOD BRIEFLY FROM 06Z-
08Z.  PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST/EAST WITH SKIES
HAVING A BIT LESS CLOUDS AND WINDS BEING LIGHT.  THE FOG SHOULD
MOSTLY BE SHALLOW AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.  THE WIND WILL INCREASE
AFT 16-18Z TO AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 180445
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1143 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION COULD
BE THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHICH COULD SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AS A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA.
TEMPS ALOFT ARE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE CWA AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE WENT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
NORTHEASTERN CWA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINED FOCUSED ON THE PRECIP CHANCES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SMALL
DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP IN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THUS PRECIP
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/SREF AS GFS SEEMED TOO SLOW...EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER OVERALL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN IOWA PAST 06Z FRIDAY AND
SKIRT EAST INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND ENOUGH QG
FORCING PRESENT TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OVER WESTERN TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING HAS SLOWED ROUGHLY
3-6 HOURS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CUT BACK ON POPS TO JUST
NORTHWEST IOWA B/T 06-12Z FRIDAY. THINKING ANY PRECIP SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF I-80...ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH. LEFT OUT MENTION ATTM HOWEVER AS LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THE EXTENT.

COLD FRONT AND 500MB TROUGH ENTER THE STATE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH ACROSS IOWA BY 00Z SUNDAY AT THE LATEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IN
KANSAS/MISSOURI. TROUGH LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
REMNANTS FROM PUSHING ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN THAT. THUS HAVE
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF. MODELS BREAK APART PRECIP
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND LEANED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF/GFS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS VIA THE 17/12Z RUNS.

SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND DOMINATES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WENT
COMPLETELY DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO BE PASS OVER IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...18/06Z
ISSUED AT 1143 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL PASS ACROSS WRN IA TONIGHT.  MID CLOUDS ARE
SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST BUT VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.  THERE MAY
BE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES AROUND BUT WAY TOO ISOLATED TO
PUT IN TAFS...WHICH WOULD MAINLY ONLY AFFECT KFOD BRIEFLY FROM 06Z-
08Z.  PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST/EAST WITH SKIES
HAVING A BIT LESS CLOUDS AND WINDS BEING LIGHT.  THE FOG SHOULD
MOSTLY BE SHALLOW AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.  THE WIND WILL INCREASE
AFT 16-18Z TO AROUND 10 KTS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 172343
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
632 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION COULD
BE THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHICH COULD SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AS A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA.
TEMPS ALOFT ARE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE CWA AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE WENT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
NORTHEASTERN CWA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINED FOCUSED ON THE PRECIP CHANCES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SMALL
DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP IN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THUS PRECIP
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/SREF AS GFS SEEMED TOO SLOW...EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER OVERALL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN IOWA PAST 06Z FRIDAY AND
SKIRT EAST INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND ENOUGH QG
FORCING PRESENT TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OVER WESTERN TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING HAS SLOWED ROUGHLY
3-6 HOURS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CUT BACK ON POPS TO JUST
NORTHWEST IOWA B/T 06-12Z FRIDAY. THINKING ANY PRECIP SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF I-80...ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH. LEFT OUT MENTION ATTM HOWEVER AS LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THE EXTENT.

COLD FRONT AND 500MB TROUGH ENTER THE STATE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH ACROSS IOWA BY 00Z SUNDAY AT THE LATEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IN
KANSAS/MISSOURI. TROUGH LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
REMNANTS FROM PUSHING ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN THAT. THUS HAVE
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF. MODELS BREAK APART PRECIP
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND LEANED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF/GFS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS VIA THE 17/12Z RUNS.

SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND DOMINATES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WENT
COMPLETELY DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO BE PASS OVER IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...18/00Z
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND.  THE WIND WILL INCREASE AFT 17-18Z TO AROUND 10 KTS.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST/EAST WITH SKIES HAVING A
BIT LESS CLOUDS AND WINDS BEING LIGHT.  THE FOG SHOULD MOSTLY BE
SHALLOW AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 172343
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
632 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION COULD
BE THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHICH COULD SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AS A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA.
TEMPS ALOFT ARE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE CWA AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE WENT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
NORTHEASTERN CWA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINED FOCUSED ON THE PRECIP CHANCES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SMALL
DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP IN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THUS PRECIP
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/SREF AS GFS SEEMED TOO SLOW...EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER OVERALL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN IOWA PAST 06Z FRIDAY AND
SKIRT EAST INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND ENOUGH QG
FORCING PRESENT TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OVER WESTERN TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING HAS SLOWED ROUGHLY
3-6 HOURS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CUT BACK ON POPS TO JUST
NORTHWEST IOWA B/T 06-12Z FRIDAY. THINKING ANY PRECIP SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF I-80...ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH. LEFT OUT MENTION ATTM HOWEVER AS LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THE EXTENT.

COLD FRONT AND 500MB TROUGH ENTER THE STATE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH ACROSS IOWA BY 00Z SUNDAY AT THE LATEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IN
KANSAS/MISSOURI. TROUGH LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
REMNANTS FROM PUSHING ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN THAT. THUS HAVE
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF. MODELS BREAK APART PRECIP
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND LEANED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF/GFS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS VIA THE 17/12Z RUNS.

SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND DOMINATES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WENT
COMPLETELY DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO BE PASS OVER IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...18/00Z
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH A LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WIND.  THE WIND WILL INCREASE AFT 17-18Z TO AROUND 10 KTS.
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHEAST/EAST WITH SKIES HAVING A
BIT LESS CLOUDS AND WINDS BEING LIGHT.  THE FOG SHOULD MOSTLY BE
SHALLOW AND IN LOW LYING AREAS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 172048
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
348 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT
SLIDES OFF TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS. EXCEPTION COULD
BE THE FAR SOUTHWEST WHICH COULD SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
TONIGHT AS A WEAK IMPULSE ALOFT PUSHES THROUGH EASTERN NEBRASKA.
TEMPS ALOFT ARE SIMILAR TO TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT HAVE THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING MOISTURE WHICH SHOULD KEEP TEMPS A
FEW DEGREES WARMER ACROSS THE CWA AND ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST. THEREFORE WENT WITH MIN TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 40S
NORTHEASTERN CWA TO THE MID 50S ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 334 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN REMAINED FOCUSED ON THE PRECIP CHANCES LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE SMALL
DISCREPANCIES SHOW UP IN TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THUS PRECIP
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. LEANED CLOSER TO A BLEND OF THE
ECMWF/SREF AS GFS SEEMED TOO SLOW...EVEN THOUGH MODELS HAVE
TRENDED SLOWER OVERALL.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SHORTWAVE WITH LIMITED MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL PUSH INTO WESTERN IOWA PAST 06Z FRIDAY AND
SKIRT EAST INTO SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION AND ENOUGH QG
FORCING PRESENT TO KEEP MENTION OF THUNDER OVER WESTERN TO
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. TIMING HAS SLOWED ROUGHLY
3-6 HOURS FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST AND CUT BACK ON POPS TO JUST
NORTHWEST IOWA B/T 06-12Z FRIDAY. THINKING ANY PRECIP SHOULD STAY
NORTH OF I-80...ALTHOUGH A SPRINKLE OR TWO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE
FURTHER SOUTH. LEFT OUT MENTION ATTM HOWEVER AS LOW CONFIDENCE
WITH THE EXTENT.

COLD FRONT AND 500MB TROUGH ENTER THE STATE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PUSH ACROSS IOWA BY 00Z SUNDAY AT THE LATEST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS SOUTH WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE IN
KANSAS/MISSOURI. TROUGH LOOKS TO PUSH SOUTH ENOUGH TO KEEP THE
REMNANTS FROM PUSHING ANY FURTHER NORTH THAN THAT. THUS HAVE
LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH SIGNIFICANT QPF. MODELS BREAK APART PRECIP
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND LEANED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF/GFS WITH LESSER AMOUNTS VIA THE 17/12Z RUNS.

SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...LARGE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO
THE REGION BY SUNDAY AND DOMINATES THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. WENT
COMPLETELY DRY DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE
LOOKS TO BE PASS OVER IOWA.

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 171702
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1202 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED. INCREASED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AS
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. OTHERWISE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
TO SPEAK OF FROM MID MORNING ONWARD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP BUFFER IOWA FROM ANY MOISTURE SOURCES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WHILE FUNNELING DRY AIR INTO THE STATE. THE
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM WILL BE FOLLOWING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND REMAIN FOCUSED JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT WHILE
THE GULF MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS COMBINED WITH A
SUBTLE SHIFT EAST OF THE SFC HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW GOOD
THETA-E ADVECTION TO REACH WESTERN IOWA THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
ON FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER A FEW STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY REMAIN CHALLENGING. WHILE PWAT VALUES DO
RISE TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER...THE OVERALL FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM
IS NOT WELL FOCUSED. THE BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE OVER THE FAR
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BY SATURDAY WILL BE
TRANSITIONING NORTHWEST AND THIS SHOULD HOLD ANY TROPICAL
ELEMENTS JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
OVERALL...HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SOLID LINE DIMINISHED AND MORE LIKELY RESULTING SCT TO BKN
LINE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY THEN A RETURN OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 171702
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1202 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED. INCREASED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AS
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. OTHERWISE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
TO SPEAK OF FROM MID MORNING ONWARD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP BUFFER IOWA FROM ANY MOISTURE SOURCES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WHILE FUNNELING DRY AIR INTO THE STATE. THE
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM WILL BE FOLLOWING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND REMAIN FOCUSED JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT WHILE
THE GULF MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS COMBINED WITH A
SUBTLE SHIFT EAST OF THE SFC HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW GOOD
THETA-E ADVECTION TO REACH WESTERN IOWA THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
ON FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER A FEW STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY REMAIN CHALLENGING. WHILE PWAT VALUES DO
RISE TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER...THE OVERALL FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM
IS NOT WELL FOCUSED. THE BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE OVER THE FAR
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BY SATURDAY WILL BE
TRANSITIONING NORTHWEST AND THIS SHOULD HOLD ANY TROPICAL
ELEMENTS JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
OVERALL...HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SOLID LINE DIMINISHED AND MORE LIKELY RESULTING SCT TO BKN
LINE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY THEN A RETURN OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...17/18Z
ISSUED AT 1202 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD WITH
LIGHT SOUTHEAST WINDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 171130
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
630 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED. INCREASED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AS
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. OTHERWISE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
TO SPEAK OF FROM MID MORNING ONWARD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP BUFFER IOWA FROM ANY MOISTURE SOURCES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WHILE FUNNELING DRY AIR INTO THE STATE. THE
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM WILL BE FOLLOWING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND REMAIN FOCUSED JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT WHILE
THE GULF MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS COMBINED WITH A
SUBTLE SHIFT EAST OF THE SFC HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW GOOD
THETA-E ADVECTION TO REACH WESTERN IOWA THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
ON FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER A FEW STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY REMAIN CHALLENGING. WHILE PWAT VALUES DO
RISE TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER...THE OVERALL FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM
IS NOT WELL FOCUSED. THE BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE OVER THE FAR
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BY SATURDAY WILL BE
TRANSITIONING NORTHWEST AND THIS SHOULD HOLD ANY TROPICAL
ELEMENTS JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
OVERALL...HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SOLID LINE DIMINISHED AND MORE LIKELY RESULTING SCT TO BKN
LINE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY THEN A RETURN OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...17/12Z
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SKIES
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD MCW AND ALO...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 171130
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
630 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED. INCREASED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AS
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. OTHERWISE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
TO SPEAK OF FROM MID MORNING ONWARD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP BUFFER IOWA FROM ANY MOISTURE SOURCES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WHILE FUNNELING DRY AIR INTO THE STATE. THE
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM WILL BE FOLLOWING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND REMAIN FOCUSED JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT WHILE
THE GULF MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS COMBINED WITH A
SUBTLE SHIFT EAST OF THE SFC HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW GOOD
THETA-E ADVECTION TO REACH WESTERN IOWA THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
ON FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER A FEW STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY REMAIN CHALLENGING. WHILE PWAT VALUES DO
RISE TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER...THE OVERALL FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM
IS NOT WELL FOCUSED. THE BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE OVER THE FAR
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BY SATURDAY WILL BE
TRANSITIONING NORTHWEST AND THIS SHOULD HOLD ANY TROPICAL
ELEMENTS JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
OVERALL...HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SOLID LINE DIMINISHED AND MORE LIKELY RESULTING SCT TO BKN
LINE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY THEN A RETURN OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...17/12Z
ISSUED AT 630 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SKIES
CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR FOG EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY TOWARD MCW AND ALO...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE 12Z TAFS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE




000
FXUS63 KDMX 170846
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
346 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED. INCREASED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AS
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. OTHERWISE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
TO SPEAK OF FROM MID MORNING ONWARD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP BUFFER IOWA FROM ANY MOISTURE SOURCES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WHILE FUNNELING DRY AIR INTO THE STATE. THE
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM WILL BE FOLLOWING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND REMAIN FOCUSED JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT WHILE
THE GULF MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS COMBINED WITH A
SUBTLE SHIFT EAST OF THE SFC HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW GOOD
THETA-E ADVECTION TO REACH WESTERN IOWA THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
ON FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER A FEW STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY REMAIN CHALLENGING. WHILE PWAT VALUES DO
RISE TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER...THE OVERALL FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM
IS NOT WELL FOCUSED. THE BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE OVER THE FAR
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BY SATURDAY WILL BE
TRANSITIONING NORTHWEST AND THIS SHOULD HOLD ANY TROPICAL
ELEMENTS JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
OVERALL...HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SOLID LINE DIMINISHED AND MORE LIKELY RESULTING SCT TO BKN
LINE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY THEN A RETURN OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...17/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST IS ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS IA.  MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO IA IN THE FLOW AND CREATING
VFR CIGS.  THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LOWER VFR CIGS AS A DISTURBANCE
CLIPS SW IA.  ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY
CLIP FAR SRN/SW IA.  TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY.  TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT SO SOME PATCHY FOG
WAS ADDED TO MAINLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 170846
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
346 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING WILL CLEAR OUT DURING THE DAY
PER FORECAST SOUNDINGS...WITH A PLEASANT LATE SUMMER AFTERNOON
ANTICIPATED. INCREASED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OR TWO AS
AMPLE SUNSHINE AND WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO RISE BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S. OTHERWISE NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
TO SPEAK OF FROM MID MORNING ONWARD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

THE NEXT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH OUT OF
CANADA AND INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL HELP BUFFER IOWA FROM ANY MOISTURE SOURCES THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING WHILE FUNNELING DRY AIR INTO THE STATE. THE
PACIFIC MOISTURE STREAM WILL BE FOLLOWING THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
AND REMAIN FOCUSED JUST WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER TONIGHT WHILE
THE GULF MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE SHIFTING EAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS COMBINED WITH A
SUBTLE SHIFT EAST OF THE SFC HIGH THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW GOOD
THETA-E ADVECTION TO REACH WESTERN IOWA THEN MOVE ACROSS THE STATE
ON FRIDAY. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION AND FORCING SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
TRIGGER A FEW STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD. ANY PRECIPITATION FRIDAY
SHOULD BE DONE BY THE AFTERNOON WITH WARM CONDITIONS DEVELOPING
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH THE PRIMARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVAL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY REMAIN CHALLENGING. WHILE PWAT VALUES DO
RISE TO 1.5 INCHES OR HIGHER...THE OVERALL FORCING WITH THE SYSTEM
IS NOT WELL FOCUSED. THE BEST POTENTIAL SHOULD BE OVER THE FAR
NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT THEN SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 SATURDAY AFTERNOON
DURING PEAK HEATING. THE MID LEVEL FLOW BY SATURDAY WILL BE
TRANSITIONING NORTHWEST AND THIS SHOULD HOLD ANY TROPICAL
ELEMENTS JUST SOUTH OF THE STATE IN KANSAS AND MISSOURI.
OVERALL...HAVE LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR SATURDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SOLID LINE DIMINISHED AND MORE LIKELY RESULTING SCT TO BKN
LINE ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SUNDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY THEN A RETURN OF CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. DRY CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...17/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST IS ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS IA.  MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO IA IN THE FLOW AND CREATING
VFR CIGS.  THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LOWER VFR CIGS AS A DISTURBANCE
CLIPS SW IA.  ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY
CLIP FAR SRN/SW IA.  TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY.  TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT SO SOME PATCHY FOG
WAS ADDED TO MAINLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 170448
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY SET
IN ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY CLIMBING
ALL DAY. LOW STRATOCUMULUS DECK FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEDGE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD BRINGS IT INTO THE WESTERN CWA
BY 03Z AND DES MOINES BY 06Z...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE THETA-E ADVECTION BAND. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WORDING THROUGHOUT THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST QUESTION AND ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS.
GIVEN THE RATE THAT TEMPERATURES DROPPED OFF LAST NIGHT AND THE
TIMING OF THE CLOUDS...EXPECT A QUICK BUT SHORT- LIVED DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FROM 00-06Z FOLLOWED BY A NEAR STEADY STATE TREND
AFTER 06Z. DROPPED MIN TEMPS THE LOWEST IN THE EAST WHERE SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST. ALMOST ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE TAKES ANY ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA
WITH THE BETTER 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BETWEEN 09-12Z
TONIGHT...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IN
THIS TIMEFRAME AND THUS RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE FAR
SW CWA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E
ADVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE BY 15Z WEDNESDAY IF NOT
SOONER. KEPT SLIGHT POPS GOING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST 12-15Z
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY ACROSS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND THETA-E ADVECTION ENTER
THE WESTERN EDGES OF IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF DRY
AIR UNTIL THE BETTER SLUG OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND BETTER LARGE
SCALE FORCING MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME. ALSO...WAA BEGINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTION OF NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. INCREASED WINDS
ON FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...TWEAKED MAX TEMPS
UP SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARMER START FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY. KEPT WITH LIKELY POPS AS EXTENDED
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THE FRONT/PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MAKES IT
THIS FAR NORTH AS THE 12Z MODEL RUNS KEEP IT SOUTH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MAJOR CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD AS
LARGE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD INTO THE STATE SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...17/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST IS ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS IA.  MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO IA IN THE FLOW AND CREATING
VFR CIGS.  THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LOWER VFR CIGS AS A DISTURBANCE
CLIPS SW IA.  ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY
CLIP FAR SRN/SW IA.  TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY.  TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT SO SOME PATCHY FOG
WAS ADDED TO MAINLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 170448
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

SURFACE HIGH CENTERED IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. RETURN SOUTHERLY FLOW HAS ALREADY SET
IN ACROSS WESTERN IOWA WHERE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY CLIMBING
ALL DAY. LOW STRATOCUMULUS DECK FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO
EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEDGE OF THETA-E
ADVECTION LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE HIGH.
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE CLOUD SHIELD BRINGS IT INTO THE WESTERN CWA
BY 03Z AND DES MOINES BY 06Z...WHICH MATCHES WELL WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE WITH RESPECT TO THE THETA-E ADVECTION BAND. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY WORDING THROUGHOUT THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE THE
BIGGEST QUESTION AND ARE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE CLOUDS.
GIVEN THE RATE THAT TEMPERATURES DROPPED OFF LAST NIGHT AND THE
TIMING OF THE CLOUDS...EXPECT A QUICK BUT SHORT- LIVED DROP IN
TEMPERATURES FROM 00-06Z FOLLOWED BY A NEAR STEADY STATE TREND
AFTER 06Z. DROPPED MIN TEMPS THE LOWEST IN THE EAST WHERE SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR THE LONGEST. ALMOST ALL OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE TAKES ANY ATTENDANT PRECIPITATION TO THE SOUTH OF IOWA
WITH THE BETTER 925-700MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT BETWEEN 09-12Z
TONIGHT...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY SHOWER OR STORM IN
THIS TIMEFRAME AND THUS RETAINED SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING IN THE FAR
SW CWA.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 314 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN DEALT WITH GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY.

WEDNESDAY...WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED THETA-E
ADVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY EXIT THE STATE BY 15Z WEDNESDAY IF NOT
SOONER. KEPT SLIGHT POPS GOING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST 12-15Z
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...INCREASED CLOUD COVER THURSDAY ACROSS THE
WEST-NORTHWEST AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE AND THETA-E ADVECTION ENTER
THE WESTERN EDGES OF IOWA BY THE AFTERNOON. STILL PLENTY OF DRY
AIR UNTIL THE BETTER SLUG OF THETA-E ADVECTION AND BETTER LARGE
SCALE FORCING MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. KEPT WITH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTH DURING THE
AFOREMENTIONED TIME FRAME. ALSO...WAA BEGINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND HAVE MENTION OF NON-DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE TREND...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN IOWA. INCREASED WINDS
ON FRIDAY WITH GOOD MIXING AND DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AS A RESULT...TWEAKED MAX TEMPS
UP SLIGHTLY...ESPECIALLY WITH THE WARMER START FRIDAY MORNING.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH STRONGER MOISTURE TRANSPORT
DEVELOPS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD
FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH BY SATURDAY. KEPT WITH LIKELY POPS AS EXTENDED
MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL TIMING AND LOCATION
OF THE FRONT/PRECIP FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HEAVY RAIN LOOKS
POSSIBLE...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE MAKES IT
THIS FAR NORTH AS THE 12Z MODEL RUNS KEEP IT SOUTH OF THE AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO MAJOR CONCERNS DURING THIS PERIOD AS
LARGE SURFACE HIGH AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILD INTO THE STATE SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...17/06Z
ISSUED AT 1144 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE PUSHING OFF TO THE EAST IS ALLOWING A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS IA.  MOISTURE IS MOVING INTO IA IN THE FLOW AND CREATING
VFR CIGS.  THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF LOWER VFR CIGS AS A DISTURBANCE
CLIPS SW IA.  ANY PRECIP WITH THIS FEATURE WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY
CLIP FAR SRN/SW IA.  TAF LOCATIONS SHOULD BE DRY.  TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO OVERNIGHT SO SOME PATCHY FOG
WAS ADDED TO MAINLY THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN TAF LOCATIONS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB





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