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000
FXUS63 KDMX 300904
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
404 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

A FAIRLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL LIFT OUT OF KANSAS TODAY AND SLOWLY
SHIFT EAST ACROSS IOWA THIS WEEKEND MAKING IT INTO WESTERN IOWA
TONIGHT.  AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS MISSOURI
THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  ALL THE HI-RES MODELS ARE
PRETTY CONSISTENT IN LIFTING A BAND OF RAIN ACROSS THE STATE TODAY
WHICH IS ALREADY UNDERWAY.  I AM A LITTLE CONCERNED THAT QPF MAY
BE A BIT OVERDONE BUT WE HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO BEFORE THIS IS OVER
SO FOR NOW I WENT WITH MODEL CONSENSUS.  WE SHOULD SEE THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL THIS MORNING THEN WE GET LOSE OUR DEEPER MOISTURE AND
FORCING THIS AFTERNOON SO PRECIP MAY BE MORE DRIZZLE OR VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS.  THE FAR SOUTH DOES GET BRUSHED WITH SOME INSTABILITY SO I
DID KEEP THE MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT THESE WILL BE
VERY WEAK IF THEY OCCUR AT ALL.  AS FOR TEMPS...WE WILL BE IN WARM
ADVECTION TODAY BUT THIS WILL BE NEGATED BY CLOUDS AND RAINFALL SO I
GENERALLY UNDERCUT GUIDANCE 2 TO 3 DEGREES.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 404 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING OUT IN TWO SEGMENTS WITH
ONE LIFTING THROUGH TODAY WHILE THE STRONGER PIECE OF ENERGY
REACHING SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BEFORE STALLING. MID LEVEL DRY AIR
FROM THE FIRST SEGMENT WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH THERE MAY ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE NEAR THE IA/MO BORDER FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...DRIZZLE WILL BE THE MAIN PRECIPITATION
POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS PORTION OF THE STATE. WHILE THE WARM
CONVEYOR MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL HAVE MOVED WELL EAST BY THIS
EVENING...A WRAP AROUND WIND WILL REACH BACK INTO NORTHERN IOWA
AND WILL KEEP RAIN/SHOWER CHANCES IN PLACE.

THE SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO MOVE EAST LATE TONIGHT
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING KINEMATIC
FORCING ACROSS THE STATE AND RENEWED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS. THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL VALUES AGAIN
SUNDAY OVER THE EAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BY LATE SUNDAY AND WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR TO THE NORTH
AND WEST SO SOME SUN IS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. PROFILES WILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR A SHALLOW CUMULUS FIELD TO DEVELOP WITH ANY
SURFACE HEATING AND WOULD LIMIT WARMING POTENTIAL.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING TO THE WEST BY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
AND WILL LEAVE IOWA UNDER NW FLOW. THE ECMWF REMAINS MOST
PROGRESSIVE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM DIVING SOUTH AND FURTHER
WEST IN THIS FLOW THOUGH THE NAM IS TRENDING TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION
AS WELL. SHOULD NOT BE AN BIG IMPACT TO THE STATE BUT MAY BRING
MORE CLOUDS AND KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER FOR MONDAY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE EXTENDED IS MOSTLY STATUS QUO. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER
BUT NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST UNTIL A LARGE UPPER LOW EXITS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND MOVES TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW THE
WESTERN RIDGE TO MOVE EAST AND BRING WARMER CONDITIONS. THE
EXTENDED WILL BE MOSTLY DRY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CLIPPING EASTERN IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL
SPREAD RAIN INTO THE STATE WITH CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR TO IFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE
RESTRICTED FROM FALLING RAIN AND LIGHT FOG AS WELL. EVEN AS THE
PRECIPITATION WEAKENS ON SATURDAY...LIGHT DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG
WILL PERSIST. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND BE
QUITE STRONG ON SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
OVERALL...AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER POOR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 300506
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1206 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

EASTERLY FLOW STRATUS/STRATOCU WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DEEPENING CYCLONE TO THE
SOUTH. LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IS LIKEWISE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW TODAY`S HIGHS.
H300 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN 18Z
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING THE AFOREMENTIONED 1002 MB SOUTHERN PLAINS
LOW INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND REACH SOUTHWEST IOWA AROUND
03Z...ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. BROAD 295-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT/H500 HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM AND DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS BROAD SWATH OF RAINFALL INTO IOWA.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MANY OF THE SAME
REGIONS THAT SAW HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A RENEWED LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT IN AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. RIBBON OF H850 THETA-E ADVECTION BELOW 200-300 J/KG OF
MUCAPE MAY IGNITE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z SOUTH OF I-80.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND RAINFALL THIS
WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM/HIGH

A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL WOBBLE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA THIS WEEKEND. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS/ENSEMBLES AND CAM SOLUTIONS LIFTING A
WIDESPREAD EAST/WEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION NWD ACROSS IOWA DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO FALL
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE IN THE MORNING HOURS...AND IN THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT 200-300 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN THE SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...A DRY SLOT WILL PIVOT INTO SRN IOWA IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A LOSS OF DEEP SATURATION AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO RESIDUAL SATURATION IN THE 1000-800MB LAYER...MAY
NEED TO ADD EXPLICIT MENTION OF THIS LATER. THE SFC BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...SO AT THIS TIME
BELIEVE A MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER
MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF COOL TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY SKIES
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WEAK FORCING AND PERIODS OF DEEPER
SATURATION PERSIST. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN MORE FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

AFTER THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS ON MONDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES TO DROP SWD
ALONG THE EAST FLANK OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE/SATURATION SHOULD BE
LIMITED...SO DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO THE 60S AND 70S NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
SHOTS OF COOLER AIR IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEMS MATERIALIZE.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING WILL
SPREAD RAIN INTO THE STATE WITH CEILINGS BECOMING MVFR TO IFR
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. VISIBILITIES WILL ALSO BE
RESTRICTED FROM FALLING RAIN AND LIGHT FOG AS WELL. EVEN AS THE
PRECIPITATION WEAKENS ON SATURDAY...LIGHT DRIZZLE AND AREAS OF FOG
WILL PERSIST. LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AND BE
QUITE STRONG ON SATURDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS.
OVERALL...AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL BE RATHER POOR THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...FOWLE
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 292342
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
642 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

EASTERLY FLOW STRATUS/STRATOCU WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DEEPENING CYCLONE TO THE
SOUTH. LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IS LIKEWISE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW TODAY`S HIGHS.
H300 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN 18Z
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING THE AFOREMENTIONED 1002 MB SOUTHERN PLAINS
LOW INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND REACH SOUTHWEST IOWA AROUND
03Z...ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. BROAD 295-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT/H500 HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM AND DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS BROAD SWATH OF RAINFALL INTO IOWA.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MANY OF THE SAME
REGIONS THAT SAW HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A RENEWED LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT IN AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. RIBBON OF H850 THETA-E ADVECTION BELOW 200-300 J/KG OF
MUCAPE MAY IGNITE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z SOUTH OF I-80.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND RAINFALL THIS
WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM/HIGH

A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL WOBBLE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA THIS WEEKEND. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS/ENSEMBLES AND CAM SOLUTIONS LIFTING A
WIDESPREAD EAST/WEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION NWD ACROSS IOWA DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO FALL
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE IN THE MORNING HOURS...AND IN THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT 200-300 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN THE SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...A DRY SLOT WILL PIVOT INTO SRN IOWA IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A LOSS OF DEEP SATURATION AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO RESIDUAL SATURATION IN THE 1000-800MB LAYER...MAY
NEED TO ADD EXPLICIT MENTION OF THIS LATER. THE SFC BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...SO AT THIS TIME
BELIEVE A MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER
MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF COOL TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY SKIES
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WEAK FORCING AND PERIODS OF DEEPER
SATURATION PERSIST. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN MORE FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

AFTER THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS ON MONDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES TO DROP SWD
ALONG THE EAST FLANK OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE/SATURATION SHOULD BE
LIMITED...SO DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO THE 60S AND 70S NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
SHOTS OF COOLER AIR IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEMS MATERIALIZE.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY EVENING/
ISSUED AT 642 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH SOME VFR CEILINGS IN THE FAR
NORTH WHERE DRIER AIR WILL WORK IN FROM THE EAST.  HOWEVER...
CEILINGS WILL BEGIN FALLING OVERNIGHT AS SHOWERS BEGIN ADVANCING
NORTHWARD INTO THE STATE. SURFACE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
EAST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE PERIOD AND BE QUITE STRONG ON
SATURDAY. IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ON SATURDAY WITH AREAS
OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE PRODUCING VERY LOW CEILINGS AND RESTRICTED
VISIBILITIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...FOWLE
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 292036
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
336 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

EASTERLY FLOW STRATUS/STRATOCU WILL PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND A DEEPENING CYCLONE TO THE
SOUTH. LITTLE DIURNAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IS LIKEWISE EXPECTED
TONIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW TODAY`S HIGHS.
H300 NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IN 18Z
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT...PULLING THE AFOREMENTIONED 1002 MB SOUTHERN PLAINS
LOW INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS BY 12Z SATURDAY. LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY ACROSS KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA WILL PIVOT
NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT AND REACH SOUTHWEST IOWA AROUND
03Z...ENCOMPASSING THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CWA BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD. BROAD 295-305K ISENTROPIC ASCENT/H500 HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD
OF THE SYSTEM AND DEEP MOISTURE TRANSPORT OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS BROAD SWATH OF RAINFALL INTO IOWA.
MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER MANY OF THE SAME
REGIONS THAT SAW HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLIER IN THE WEEK. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A RENEWED LOCALIZED FLOODING THREAT IN AREAS OF POOR
DRAINAGE. RIBBON OF H850 THETA-E ADVECTION BELOW 200-300 J/KG OF
MUCAPE MAY IGNITE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 06Z SOUTH OF I-80.

.LONG TERM.../SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ISSUED AT 336 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

PRIMARY FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PRECIPITATION TRENDS AND RAINFALL THIS
WEEKEND...THEN TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM/HIGH

A SEASONABLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW WILL WOBBLE SLOWLY
EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA THIS WEEKEND. GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE
SHORT RANGE MODELS/ENSEMBLES AND CAM SOLUTIONS LIFTING A
WIDESPREAD EAST/WEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION NWD ACROSS IOWA DURING
THE DAY ON SATURDAY. EXPECT THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION TO FALL
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE STATE IN THE MORNING HOURS...AND IN THE
NORTH IN THE AFTERNOON. A MAJORITY OF THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
DEPICT 200-300 J/KG OF MUCAPE IN THE SOUTH...SO WILL KEEP AN
ISOLATED MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW. AS MENTIONED
PREVIOUSLY...A DRY SLOT WILL PIVOT INTO SRN IOWA IN THE
AFTERNOON...WITH A LOSS OF DEEP SATURATION AND LIFT.
HOWEVER...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE PATCHY DRIZZLE IN THE
AFTERNOON DUE TO RESIDUAL SATURATION IN THE 1000-800MB LAYER...MAY
NEED TO ADD EXPLICIT MENTION OF THIS LATER. THE SFC BOUNDARY
SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...SO AT THIS TIME
BELIEVE A MAJORITY OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL REMAIN OVER
MISSOURI. ALTHOUGH THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON
SUNDAY...EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF COOL TEMPERATURES...CLOUDY SKIES
AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AS WEAK FORCING AND PERIODS OF DEEPER
SATURATION PERSIST. STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THIS WEEKEND ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES...WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SOME MINOR FLOODING ISSUES IN MORE FLOOD PRONE AREAS.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

AFTER THE UPPER LOW DEPARTS ON MONDAY...MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL
FEATURE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES AND TROUGHING IN THE EAST.
THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES TO DROP SWD
ALONG THE EAST FLANK OF THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE ON MONDAY AND AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY. OVERALL FORCING AND MOISTURE/SATURATION SHOULD BE
LIMITED...SO DECIDED TO KEEP THE FORECAST DRY FOR NOW.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD GRADUALLY MODERATE INTO THE 60S AND 70S NEXT
WEEK...ALTHOUGH WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON POTENTIAL FOR A COUPLE
SHOTS OF COOLER AIR IF THE ABOVE MENTIONED SYSTEMS MATERIALIZE.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED
AREAS FALLING TO LIFR DURING THE PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-80 ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...FOWLE
AVIATION...SKOW





000
FXUS63 KDMX 291741
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1241 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER WISCONSIN
DRIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS WILL
LEAVE IOWA IN SOME WEAK RIDGING TODAY.  WE STILL HAVE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER IOWA AND AS
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON IT WILL ONLY HELP TO KEEP THE
CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.

IN GENERAL TODAY WILL BE DRY...THAT IS TO SAY THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP
IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME LIGHT MIST OR PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  ALSO...I DID INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AS THE NEXT LOW BEGINS TO WORK
TOWARDS THE STATE AND FORCING INCREASES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THAT GENERAL AREA.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPPER LOW DIGGING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. INITIAL THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA BY LATE THIS EVENING. OVERALL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN A BIT LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL ARRIVE
WITH THE STRONGER KINEMATICS THAT WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER FOR
SATURDAY AS THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA WITH THUNDER CHANCES
DECREASING FARTHER NORTH. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER ONE
INCH SO THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RAINFALL.

THE DRY SLOT WILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
IOWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
UNDER THE DRY SLOT BUT EVENT WITH THAT...SUSPECT POPS MAY BE A BIT
TOO HIGH YET WITH THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STALLS BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A DRIER TREND WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND 70S. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS IN FLUX AND HIGHLY
FLUID WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS...ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE NW FLOW AND WILL INTERACT
WITH THE DECAYING SW UPPER LOW. NO GOOD CONSENSUS ON MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON THE UPPER LEVEL EVOLUTION AS THIS OCCURS THOUGH THE
FLOW WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE UNTIL
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS WITH LOCALIZED
AREAS FALLING TO LIFR DURING THE PERIODS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-80 ON
SATURDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SKOW





000
FXUS63 KDMX 291150
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
652 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER WISCONSIN
DRIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS WILL
LEAVE IOWA IN SOME WEAK RIDGING TODAY.  WE STILL HAVE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER IOWA AND AS
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON IT WILL ONLY HELP TO KEEP THE
CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.

IN GENERAL TODAY WILL BE DRY...THAT IS TO SAY THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP
IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME LIGHT MIST OR PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  ALSO...I DID INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AS THE NEXT LOW BEGINS TO WORK
TOWARDS THE STATE AND FORCING INCREASES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THAT GENERAL AREA.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPPER LOW DIGGING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. INITIAL THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA BY LATE THIS EVENING. OVERALL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN A BIT LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL ARRIVE
WITH THE STRONGER KINEMATICS THAT WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER FOR
SATURDAY AS THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA WITH THUNDER CHANCES
DECREASING FARTHER NORTH. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER ONE
INCH SO THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RAINFALL.

THE DRY SLOT WILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
IOWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
UNDER THE DRY SLOT BUT EVENT WITH THAT...SUSPECT POPS MAY BE A BIT
TOO HIGH YET WITH THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STALLS BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A DRIER TREND WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND 70S. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS IN FLUX AND HIGHLY
FLUID WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS...ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE NW FLOW AND WILL INTERACT
WITH THE DECAYING SW UPPER LOW. NO GOOD CONSENSUS ON MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON THE UPPER LEVEL EVOLUTION AS THIS OCCURS THOUGH THE
FLOW WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE UNTIL
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING/
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LIFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST
IFR AFT 30/03Z AND VSBYS WILL DROP AS SHRA MOVE INTO TAF
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY AFT 09Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 291150
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
652 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER WISCONSIN
DRIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS WILL
LEAVE IOWA IN SOME WEAK RIDGING TODAY.  WE STILL HAVE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER IOWA AND AS
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON IT WILL ONLY HELP TO KEEP THE
CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.

IN GENERAL TODAY WILL BE DRY...THAT IS TO SAY THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP
IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME LIGHT MIST OR PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  ALSO...I DID INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AS THE NEXT LOW BEGINS TO WORK
TOWARDS THE STATE AND FORCING INCREASES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THAT GENERAL AREA.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPPER LOW DIGGING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. INITIAL THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA BY LATE THIS EVENING. OVERALL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN A BIT LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL ARRIVE
WITH THE STRONGER KINEMATICS THAT WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER FOR
SATURDAY AS THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA WITH THUNDER CHANCES
DECREASING FARTHER NORTH. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER ONE
INCH SO THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RAINFALL.

THE DRY SLOT WILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
IOWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
UNDER THE DRY SLOT BUT EVENT WITH THAT...SUSPECT POPS MAY BE A BIT
TOO HIGH YET WITH THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STALLS BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A DRIER TREND WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND 70S. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS IN FLUX AND HIGHLY
FLUID WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS...ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE NW FLOW AND WILL INTERACT
WITH THE DECAYING SW UPPER LOW. NO GOOD CONSENSUS ON MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON THE UPPER LEVEL EVOLUTION AS THIS OCCURS THOUGH THE
FLOW WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE UNTIL
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING/
ISSUED AT 652 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LIFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON. CIGS WILL LOWER TO AT LEAST
IFR AFT 30/03Z AND VSBYS WILL DROP AS SHRA MOVE INTO TAF
LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY AFT 09Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 290906
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
406 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER WISCONSIN
DRIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS WILL
LEAVE IOWA IN SOME WEAK RIDGING TODAY.  WE STILL HAVE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER IOWA AND AS
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON IT WILL ONLY HELP TO KEEP THE
CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.

IN GENERAL TODAY WILL BE DRY...THAT IS TO SAY THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP
IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME LIGHT MIST OR PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  ALSO...I DID INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AS THE NEXT LOW BEGINS TO WORK
TOWARDS THE STATE AND FORCING INCREASES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THAT GENERAL AREA.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPPER LOW DIGGING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. INITIAL THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA BY LATE THIS EVENING. OVERALL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN A BIT LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL ARRIVE
WITH THE STRONGER KINEMATICS THAT WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER FOR
SATURDAY AS THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA WITH THUNDER CHANCES
DECREASING FARTHER NORTH. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER ONE
INCH SO THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RAINFALL.

THE DRY SLOT WILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
IOWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
UNDER THE DRY SLOT BUT EVENT WITH THAT...SUSPECT POPS MAY BE A BIT
TOO HIGH YET WITH THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STALLS BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A DRIER TREND WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND 70S. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS IN FLUX AND HIGHLY
FLUID WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS...ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE NW FLOW AND WILL INTERACT
WITH THE DECAYING SW UPPER LOW. NO GOOD CONSENSUS ON MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON THE UPPER LEVEL EVOLUTION AS THIS OCCURS THOUGH THE
FLOW WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE UNTIL
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON. MCW AND POSSIBLY ALO MAY
SEE LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND MENTIONED
MVFR VIS AT ALO/MCW.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 290906
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
406 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS TODAY AS AN UPPER LOW OVER WISCONSIN
DRIFTS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE NEXT SYSTEM TO AFFECT US
TONIGHT INTO THE WEEKEND APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.  THIS WILL
LEAVE IOWA IN SOME WEAK RIDGING TODAY.  WE STILL HAVE ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE SO CLOUD COVER WILL REMAIN OVER IOWA AND AS
WINDS BECOME EASTERLY IN THE AFTERNOON IT WILL ONLY HELP TO KEEP THE
CLOUDS AND COOL TEMPERATURES IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA TODAY.

IN GENERAL TODAY WILL BE DRY...THAT IS TO SAY THAT MEASURABLE PRECIP
IS NOT EXPECTED...BUT SOME LIGHT MIST OR PATCHY DRIZZLE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.  ALSO...I DID INTRODUCE SOME LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH AS THE NEXT LOW BEGINS TO WORK
TOWARDS THE STATE AND FORCING INCREASES LATE IN THE AFTERNOON IN
THAT GENERAL AREA.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 405 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

UPPER LOW DIGGING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WILL LIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY AND WILL IMPACT THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUNDAY. INITIAL THETA-E ADVECTION SURGE WILL ARRIVE INTO SOUTHERN
IOWA BY LATE THIS EVENING. OVERALL INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN A BIT LIMITED DURING THIS TIME. BETTER DYNAMICS WILL ARRIVE
WITH THE STRONGER KINEMATICS THAT WILL ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM AND THIS WILL BRING THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION. HAVE INCREASED POPS FURTHER FOR
SATURDAY AS THIS WAVE OF PRECIPITATION LIFTS NORTH. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY REACH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA WITH THUNDER CHANCES
DECREASING FARTHER NORTH. PWAT VALUES WILL INCREASE TO OVER ONE
INCH SO THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GOOD RAINFALL.

THE DRY SLOT WILL MAKE IT INTO SOUTHERN AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
IOWA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE SOME DRIZZLE POTENTIAL
UNDER THE DRY SLOT BUT EVENT WITH THAT...SUSPECT POPS MAY BE A BIT
TOO HIGH YET WITH THE LACK OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATING
PRECIPITATION. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S
TO MID 50S. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM STALLS BEFORE MOVING RAPIDLY EAST ON SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVING SUNDAY NIGHT.

MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE A DRIER TREND WITH WARMER
CONDITIONS WITH HIGHS RETURNING TO THE 60S AND 70S. THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED REMAINS IN FLUX AND HIGHLY
FLUID WITH AN UPPER RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE WRN CONUS AND AN
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHWEST BECOMING TRAPPED UNDER THE
RIDGE. AS THIS OCCURS...ANOTHER STRONG SHORT WAVE WILL DROP
ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE NW FLOW AND WILL INTERACT
WITH THE DECAYING SW UPPER LOW. NO GOOD CONSENSUS ON MODEL
SOLUTIONS ON THE UPPER LEVEL EVOLUTION AS THIS OCCURS THOUGH THE
FLOW WILL NOT BE CONDUCIVE FOR THE RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE UNTIL
LATE IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON. MCW AND POSSIBLY ALO MAY
SEE LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND MENTIONED
MVFR VIS AT ALO/MCW.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 290503
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1203 AM CDT FRI APR 29 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AS SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
CWA. BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES REMAIN HIGH...SO LOW CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH BUT STILL
HIGH ENOUGH VALUES FOR AMPLE CLOUD COVER. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT HAVE CROPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS DIABATIC HEATING WANES AND LOWER LEVELS
STABILIZE.

PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER. AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST AS THE FOG LOOKS TO BE
MORE AVIATION FOG THAN PUBLIC IMPACT FOG.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE SHARP RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED COOL AND DAMP WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER AND GRADUAL WARMING NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE H500
RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSIT THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY
AND BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT EASTERLY FLOW OFF A HUDSON
BAY SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE NORTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY EVENING AND
HAVE LIKEWISE TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 00Z.

BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH GOOD GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WORKING
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME SPREAD EXISTS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE STARTING
ON SATURDAY AMONGST THE MID RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS IN
PARTICULAR TAKING THE LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. DID NOT ADJUST
SATURDAY POP FIELDS BY MUCH GIVEN THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY. WAVE OF
H850 THETA-E ADVECTION UNDER A WEAK CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE PROFILE
MAY SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTH OF I-80.

SURFACE LOW WILL DEPART LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET IN FOR THE BULK OF
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
H850 TEMPS RISE FROM +3 TO +12 C BETWEEN 00Z MONDAY AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

IFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS BEFORE
LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS INTO THE AFTERNOON. MCW AND POSSIBLY ALO MAY
SEE LIFR CIGS OVERNIGHT AND FOG LOOKS TO DEVELOP AND MENTIONED
MVFR VIS AT ALO/MCW.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

72-HR QPF CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN-BANK RISES ALONG SEVERAL AREA RIVES IN RESPONSE TO RAINFALL
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM THIS COMING WEEKEND. ONE OR TWO LOCATIONS MAY
REACH FLOOD STAGE IN THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN AND THE DES
MOINES RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF DES MOINES...HOWEVER REMAIN IN THE LOWER
END OF THE MINOR FLOODING CATEGORIES. THESE CONTINGENCY FORECASTS
ARE BASED ON TOTAL QPF FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM OF 0.75-1.25 IN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 282343
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AS SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
CWA. BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES REMAIN HIGH...SO LOW CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH BUT STILL
HIGH ENOUGH VALUES FOR AMPLE CLOUD COVER. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT HAVE CROPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS DIABATIC HEATING WANES AND LOWER LEVELS
STABILIZE.

PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER. AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST AS THE FOG LOOKS TO BE
MORE AVIATION FOG THAN PUBLIC IMPACT FOG.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE SHARP RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED COOL AND DAMP WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER AND GRADUAL WARMING NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE H500
RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSIT THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY
AND BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT EASTERLY FLOW OFF A HUDSON
BAY SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE NORTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY EVENING AND
HAVE LIKEWISE TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 00Z.

BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH GOOD GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WORKING
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME SPREAD EXISTS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE STARTING
ON SATURDAY AMONGST THE MID RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS IN
PARTICULAR TAKING THE LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. DID NOT ADJUST
SATURDAY POP FIELDS BY MUCH GIVEN THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY. WAVE OF
H850 THETA-E ADVECTION UNDER A WEAK CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE PROFILE
MAY SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTH OF I-80.

SURFACE LOW WILL DEPART LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET IN FOR THE BULK OF
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
H850 TEMPS RISE FROM +3 TO +12 C BETWEEN 00Z MONDAY AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT
DSM AND POSSIBLY ALO/OTM THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE SOME VIS
RESTRICTIONS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA FOR AT LEAST SOME
MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS. INTRODUCED AT ALO/MCW AND WILL REEVALUATE
AT 06Z ISSUANCE IF SOUTHERN SITES NEED MENTION AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS FINALLY BECOMES VFR LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

72-HR QPF CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN-BANK RISES ALONG SEVERAL AREA RIVES IN RESPONSE TO RAINFALL
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM THIS COMING WEEKEND. ONE OR TWO LOCATIONS MAY
REACH FLOOD STAGE IN THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN AND THE DES
MOINES RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF DES MOINES...HOWEVER REMAIN IN THE LOWER
END OF THE MINOR FLOODING CATEGORIES. THESE CONTINGENCY FORECASTS
ARE BASED ON TOTAL QPF FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM OF 0.75-1.25 IN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 282343
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AS SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE
CWA. BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES REMAIN HIGH...SO LOW CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE. SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH BUT STILL
HIGH ENOUGH VALUES FOR AMPLE CLOUD COVER. INSTABILITY
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT HAVE CROPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON WILL
DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS DIABATIC HEATING WANES AND LOWER LEVELS
STABILIZE.

PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER. AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST AS THE FOG LOOKS TO BE
MORE AVIATION FOG THAN PUBLIC IMPACT FOG.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE SHARP RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED COOL AND DAMP WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH DRY WEATHER AND GRADUAL WARMING NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE H500
RIDGE AXIS WILL TRANSIT THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY
AND BRING A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT EASTERLY FLOW OFF A HUDSON
BAY SURFACE HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HIGHS ONLY IN
THE 50S. SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE NORTHEASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF A SOUTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY EVENING AND
HAVE LIKEWISE TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 00Z.

BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH GOOD GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WORKING
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME SPREAD EXISTS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE STARTING
ON SATURDAY AMONGST THE MID RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS IN
PARTICULAR TAKING THE LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. DID NOT ADJUST
SATURDAY POP FIELDS BY MUCH GIVEN THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY. WAVE OF
H850 THETA-E ADVECTION UNDER A WEAK CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE PROFILE
MAY SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTH OF I-80.

SURFACE LOW WILL DEPART LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET IN FOR THE BULK OF
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
H850 TEMPS RISE FROM +3 TO +12 C BETWEEN 00Z MONDAY AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING/
ISSUED AT 635 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MAINLY MVFR CIGS WITH INTERMITTENT IFR CIGS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS/DRIZZLE WILL AFFECT
DSM AND POSSIBLY ALO/OTM THIS EVENING AND PROVIDE SOME VIS
RESTRICTIONS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT AND
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA FOR AT LEAST SOME
MVFR VIS RESTRICTIONS. INTRODUCED AT ALO/MCW AND WILL REEVALUATE
AT 06Z ISSUANCE IF SOUTHERN SITES NEED MENTION AS WELL.
OTHERWISE...MVFR STRATUS FINALLY BECOMES VFR LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

72-HR QPF CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN-BANK RISES ALONG SEVERAL AREA RIVES IN RESPONSE TO RAINFALL
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM THIS COMING WEEKEND. ONE OR TWO LOCATIONS MAY
REACH FLOOD STAGE IN THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN AND THE DES
MOINES RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF DES MOINES...HOWEVER REMAIN IN THE LOWER
END OF THE MINOR FLOODING CATEGORIES. THESE CONTINGENCY FORECASTS
ARE BASED ON TOTAL QPF FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM OF 0.75-1.25 IN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 282005
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
305 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE SHORT TERM
AS SURFACE AND UPPER-LEVEL LOWS SHIFT EASTWARD AWAY FROM THE CWA.
BOUNDARY LAYER RH VALUES REMAIN HIGH...SO LOW CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE. SLIGHTLY LESS MOISTURE IN THE SOUTH BUT STILL HIGH ENOUGH
VALUES FOR AMPLE CLOUD COVER. INSTABILITY SHOWERS/SPRINKLES THAT
HAVE CROPPED UP THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH BY SUNSET AS DIABATIC
HEATING WANES AND LOWER LEVELS STABILIZE.

PATCHY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST
WHERE RECENT RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN HIGHER. AT THIS TIME WILL
NOT INCLUDE MENTION OF FOG IN THE FORECAST AS THE FOG LOOKS TO BE
MORE AVIATION FOG THAN PUBLIC IMPACT FOG.

.LONG TERM.../FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE CONUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SHARP RIDGING BUILDS IN FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
RESULT IN CONTINUED COOL AND DAMP WEATHER THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
DRY WEATHER AND GRADUAL WARMING NEXT WEEK. SHORTWAVE H500 RIDGE AXIS
WILL TRANSIT THE MID MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON FRIDAY AND BRING A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER...BUT EASTERLY FLOW OFF A HUDSON BAY SURFACE
HIGH WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY AND HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.
SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OF A
SOUTHERN PLAINS SURFACE LOW ON FRIDAY EVENING AND HAVE LIKEWISE
TRIMMED BACK POPS IN THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH 00Z.

BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AHEAD OF THE LOW WITH GOOD GULF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT WILL RESULT IN WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WORKING
INTO SOUTHERN IOWA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SOME SPREAD EXISTS IN THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE CYCLONE STARTING
ON SATURDAY AMONGST THE MID RANGE GUIDANCE WITH THE GFS IN
PARTICULAR TAKING THE LOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH. DID NOT ADJUST
SATURDAY POP FIELDS BY MUCH GIVEN THE CURRENT UNCERTAINTY. WAVE OF
H850 THETA-E ADVECTION UNDER A WEAK CONVECTIVELY UNSTABLE PROFILE
MAY SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING SOUTH OF I-80.

SURFACE LOW WILL DEPART LATE IN THE WEEKEND AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTHWARD. ZONAL FLOW WILL SET IN FOR THE BULK OF
NEXT WEEK...LEADING TO A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK AS
H850 TEMPS RISE FROM +3 TO +12 C BETWEEN 00Z MONDAY AND 12Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD AND DEPART IOWA LATER TODAY...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. AFTER A BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THIS AFTN...CIGS WILL AGAIN LOWER THIS EVENING.
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
TERMINALS. SOME INSTABILITY SHRA IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN BUT WILL
DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 305 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

72-HR QPF CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGEST MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN-BANK RISES ALONG SEVERAL AREA RIVES IN RESPONSE TO RAINFALL
FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM THIS COMING WEEKEND. ONE OR TWO LOCATIONS MAY
REACH FLOOD STAGE IN THE LOWER RACCOON RIVER BASIN AND THE DES
MOINES RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF DES MOINES...HOWEVER REMAIN IN THE LOWER
END OF THE MINOR FLOODING CATEGORIES. THESE CONTINGENCY FORECASTS
ARE BASED ON TOTAL QPF FROM THE NEXT SYSTEM OF 0.75-1.25 IN.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ZOGG
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...ZOGG
HYDROLOGY...ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 281726
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1220 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA TODAY WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW MEANDERS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.  THIS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
A RESULT WE WILL SEE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
COOL. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS OVER FOR US...THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES OR DRIZZLE AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY IN ADDITION TO LOW CLOUDS. THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A PRETTY DISMAL DAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTH BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND TEMPS WILL EITHER REMAIN
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.  HIGHS TODAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH LOWER TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH WHERE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S WILL BE REACHED.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. IA WILL BE ON THE
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE CURRENT SYSTEM WILL
BE ALL BUT OVER AT ONSET WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WI. THIS
WILL LEAVE IA IN WEAK NELY SURFACE FLOW BUT AT LEAST PATCHY STRATUS.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE INTO FRI AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SWRN
CONUS...SO STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS. WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION
MAY JUST PUSH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SWRN SECTIONS LATE IN THE
DAY FRI...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE MID LEVEL FORCING /DPVA/ PRECEDES
THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING JUST A BIT BUT THERE WILL BE A DECENT
BAROCLINIC AND FRONTOGENETIC ZONE LIFTING THROUGH EARLY SAT AND
SHOULD PRODUCE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. VARIOUS 295-310K
ISENT SURFACES SHOW THIS NICELY AND SUGGEST THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC
CONTRIBUTION WILL WANE INTO THE NIGHT AND SUN WITH THOSE WINDS
WEAKENING AND MORE IMMEDIATE MECHANICAL FORCING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER LOW TAKING OVER. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A TAD FURTHER SAT
WITH PLENTY OF PRECIP AND COOL BRISK ELY WINDS.

THE PATTERN WILL TRY TO CYCLE ANOTHER ITERATION OF A SWRN CONUS
SYSTEM INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT WILL WEAKEN WITH A
WRN CONUS OMEGA BLOCK TAKING AROUND...AND IA WEATHER BECOMING
MORE DOMINATED BY THE NRN STREAM AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES. HAVE
SOME TOKEN PRECIP CHANCES AROUND TUE WHEN UPPER MS VALLEY SHORT
WAVES MAY BRUSH IA...BUT THE MAIN WEATHER STORY BY THEN WILL BE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

MVFR CIGS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...WITH SOME IFR CIGS
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SURFACE LOW WILL CONTINUE
TRACKING EASTWARD AND DEPART IOWA LATER TODAY...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
HIGH IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND CLOUDS WILL REMAIN. AFTER A BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS THIS AFTN...CIGS WILL AGAIN LOWER THIS EVENING.
FOG IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY AT THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
TERMINALS. SOME INSTABILITY SHRA IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTN BUT WILL
DISSIPATE TOWARD SUNSET.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

OBSERVATIONS AND MRMS PRECIP ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE RACCOON
BASIN RECEIVED THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH MANY AMOUNTS FROM 1-1.25 INCHES. LATEST 00Z RFC
FORECASTS...WITH 24 HOURS OF QPF...STILL DEPICT WITHIN BANK RISES
WITH FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED FROM THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIP. WED
RFC 72 HOUR QPF CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGESTED PRECIP FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM WOULD BE REMOVED ENOUGH FROM THIS RUNOFF TO KEEP THE OUTLOOK
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS...HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY
CLOSE IN PARTS OF THE DES MOINES AND RACCOON BASINS SO CONFIDENCE IN
NOT REACHING FLOOD STAGE HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. CURRENT QPF FOR THESE AREAS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
ESSENTIALLY 0.75-1.25 INCHES...BUT IF THOSE EXPECTATIONS ARE
EXCEEDED A FEW SPOTS MAY ECLIPSE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB
HYDROLOGY...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 281148
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA TODAY WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW MEANDERS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.  THIS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
A RESULT WE WILL SEE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
COOL. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS OVER FOR US...THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES OR DRIZZLE AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY IN ADDITION TO LOW CLOUDS. THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A PRETTY DISMAL DAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTH BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND TEMPS WILL EITHER REMAIN
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.  HIGHS TODAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH LOWER TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH WHERE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S WILL BE REACHED.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. IA WILL BE ON THE
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE CURRENT SYSTEM WILL
BE ALL BUT OVER AT ONSET WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WI. THIS
WILL LEAVE IA IN WEAK NELY SURFACE FLOW BUT AT LEAST PATCHY STRATUS.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE INTO FRI AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SWRN
CONUS...SO STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS. WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION
MAY JUST PUSH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SWRN SECTIONS LATE IN THE
DAY FRI...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE MID LEVEL FORCING /DPVA/ PRECEDES
THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING JUST A BIT BUT THERE WILL BE A DECENT
BAROCLINIC AND FRONTOGENETIC ZONE LIFTING THROUGH EARLY SAT AND
SHOULD PRODUCE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. VARIOUS 295-310K
ISENT SURFACES SHOW THIS NICELY AND SUGGEST THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC
CONTRIBUTION WILL WANE INTO THE NIGHT AND SUN WITH THOSE WINDS
WEAKENING AND MORE IMMEDIATE MECHANICAL FORCING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER LOW TAKING OVER. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A TAD FURTHER SAT
WITH PLENTY OF PRECIP AND COOL BRISK ELY WINDS.

THE PATTERN WILL TRY TO CYCLE ANOTHER ITERATION OF A SWRN CONUS
SYSTEM INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT WILL WEAKEN WITH A
WRN CONUS OMEGA BLOCK TAKING AROUND...AND IA WEATHER BECOMING
MORE DOMINATED BY THE NRN STREAM AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES. HAVE
SOME TOKEN PRECIP CHANCES AROUND TUE WHEN UPPER MS VALLEY SHORT
WAVES MAY BRUSH IA...BUT THE MAIN WEATHER STORY BY THEN WILL BE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING/
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

LIFR TO MVFR CIGS IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AND PROVIDES A ROUND OF
DRIZZLE/MIST DURING MUCH OF THE DAY WITH LIGHT RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN
TAF SITES.  WITH COLD ADVECTION TONIGHT CIGS SHOULD LOWER SOME AND
POTENTIAL FOR FOG TO DEVELOP REDUCING VSBYS AS WELL.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

OBSERVATIONS AND MRMS PRECIP ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE RACCOON
BASIN RECEIVED THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH MANY AMOUNTS FROM 1-1.25 INCHES. LATEST 00Z RFC
FORECASTS...WITH 24 HOURS OF QPF...STILL DEPICT WITHIN BANK RISES
WITH FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED FROM THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIP. WED
RFC 72 HOUR QPF CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGESTED PRECIP FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM WOULD BE REMOVED ENOUGH FROM THIS RUNOFF TO KEEP THE OUTLOOK
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS...HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY
CLOSE IN PARTS OF THE DES MOINES AND RACCOON BASINS SO CONFIDENCE IN
NOT REACHING FLOOD STAGE HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. CURRENT QPF FOR THESE AREAS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
ESSENTIALLY 0.75-1.25 INCHES...BUT IF THOSE EXPECTATIONS ARE
EXCEEDED A FEW SPOTS MAY ECLIPSE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB
HYDROLOGY...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280831
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
331 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA TODAY WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW MEANDERS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.  THIS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
A RESULT WE WILL SEE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
COOL. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS OVER FOR US...THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES OR DRIZZLE AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY IN ADDITION TO LOW CLOUDS. THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A PRETTY DISMAL DAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTH BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND TEMPS WILL EITHER REMAIN
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.  HIGHS TODAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH LOWER TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH WHERE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S WILL BE REACHED.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. IA WILL BE ON THE
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE CURRENT SYSTEM WILL
BE ALL BUT OVER AT ONSET WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WI. THIS
WILL LEAVE IA IN WEAK NELY SURFACE FLOW BUT AT LEAST PATCHY STRATUS.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE INTO FRI AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SWRN
CONUS...SO STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS. WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION
MAY JUST PUSH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SWRN SECTIONS LATE IN THE
DAY FRI...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE MID LEVEL FORCING /DPVA/ PRECEDES
THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING JUST A BIT BUT THERE WILL BE A DECENT
BAROCLINIC AND FRONTOGENETIC ZONE LIFTING THROUGH EARLY SAT AND
SHOULD PRODUCE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. VARIOUS 295-310K
ISENT SURFACES SHOW THIS NICELY AND SUGGEST THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC
CONTRIBUTION WILL WANE INTO THE NIGHT AND SUN WITH THOSE WINDS
WEAKENING AND MORE IMMEDIATE MECHANICAL FORCING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER LOW TAKING OVER. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A TAD FURTHER SAT
WITH PLENTY OF PRECIP AND COOL BRISK ELY WINDS.

THE PATTERN WILL TRY TO CYCLE ANOTHER ITERATION OF A SWRN CONUS
SYSTEM INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT WILL WEAKEN WITH A
WRN CONUS OMEGA BLOCK TAKING AROUND...AND IA WEATHER BECOMING
MORE DOMINATED BY THE NRN STREAM AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES. HAVE
SOME TOKEN PRECIP CHANCES AROUND TUE WHEN UPPER MS VALLEY SHORT
WAVES MAY BRUSH IA...BUT THE MAIN WEATHER STORY BY THEN WILL BE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LIFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AND PROVIDES A ROUND
OF DRIZZLE/MIST DURING MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ANY
LIFR VIS EXCEPT FURTHER NORTH WHERE MCW REMAINS WELL INTO THE CAA
AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CIG WITH INTERMITTENT LIFR
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

OBSERVATIONS AND MRMS PRECIP ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE RACCOON
BASIN RECEIVED THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH MANY AMOUNTS FROM 1-1.25 INCHES. LATEST 00Z RFC
FORECASTS...WITH 24 HOURS OF QPF...STILL DEPICT WITHIN BANK RISES
WITH FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED FROM THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIP. WED
RFC 72 HOUR QPF CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGESTED PRECIP FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM WOULD BE REMOVED ENOUGH FROM THIS RUNOFF TO KEEP THE OUTLOOK
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS...HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY
CLOSE IN PARTS OF THE DES MOINES AND RACCOON BASINS SO CONFIDENCE IN
NOT REACHING FLOOD STAGE HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. CURRENT QPF FOR THESE AREAS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
ESSENTIALLY 0.75-1.25 INCHES...BUT IF THOSE EXPECTATIONS ARE
EXCEEDED A FEW SPOTS MAY ECLIPSE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280831
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
331 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE UPPER LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA TODAY WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW MEANDERS EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE STATE.
AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES EAST COLDER AIR WILL SPILL IN ON THE
BACKSIDE OF THE LOW.  THIS WILL OCCUR DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. AS
A RESULT WE WILL SEE CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TEMPS WILL BE QUITE
COOL. WHILE THE BULK OF THE PRECIP IS OVER FOR US...THERE WILL BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN AT TIMES OR DRIZZLE AND PATCHY LIGHT FOG AROUND
THROUGH THE DAY IN ADDITION TO LOW CLOUDS. THE COMBINATION OF ALL OF
THIS WILL MAKE FOR A PRETTY DISMAL DAY. WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO
THE NORTH BY EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND TEMPS WILL EITHER REMAIN
STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD.  HIGHS TODAY WILL
ONLY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WITH LOWER TO MID 50S
ELSEWHERE.  THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR SOUTH WHERE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S WILL BE REACHED.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES AND ANOTHER ROUND OF PRECIPITATION. IA WILL BE ON THE
MORE STABLE SIDE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM HOWEVER WITH LITTLE IF ANY
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ANY EFFECTS FROM THE CURRENT SYSTEM WILL
BE ALL BUT OVER AT ONSET WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO WI. THIS
WILL LEAVE IA IN WEAK NELY SURFACE FLOW BUT AT LEAST PATCHY STRATUS.
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL THEN BE ON THE INCREASE INTO FRI AHEAD OF
THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE SWRN
CONUS...SO STILL EXPECT PLENTY OF CLOUDS. WARM/THETA-E ADVECTION
MAY JUST PUSH SOME LIGHT SHOWERS INTO SWRN SECTIONS LATE IN THE
DAY FRI...BUT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
LATER FRI NIGHT INTO SAT. THE MID LEVEL FORCING /DPVA/ PRECEDES
THE THERMODYNAMIC FORCING JUST A BIT BUT THERE WILL BE A DECENT
BAROCLINIC AND FRONTOGENETIC ZONE LIFTING THROUGH EARLY SAT AND
SHOULD PRODUCE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL. VARIOUS 295-310K
ISENT SURFACES SHOW THIS NICELY AND SUGGEST THAT THE THERMODYNAMIC
CONTRIBUTION WILL WANE INTO THE NIGHT AND SUN WITH THOSE WINDS
WEAKENING AND MORE IMMEDIATE MECHANICAL FORCING WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THE UPPER LOW TAKING OVER. HAVE LOWERED TEMPS A TAD FURTHER SAT
WITH PLENTY OF PRECIP AND COOL BRISK ELY WINDS.

THE PATTERN WILL TRY TO CYCLE ANOTHER ITERATION OF A SWRN CONUS
SYSTEM INTO THE PLAINS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT IT WILL WEAKEN WITH A
WRN CONUS OMEGA BLOCK TAKING AROUND...AND IA WEATHER BECOMING
MORE DOMINATED BY THE NRN STREAM AS THE PATTERN AMPLIFIES. HAVE
SOME TOKEN PRECIP CHANCES AROUND TUE WHEN UPPER MS VALLEY SHORT
WAVES MAY BRUSH IA...BUT THE MAIN WEATHER STORY BY THEN WILL BE
MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES MODERATING BACK CLOSER TO
NORMAL.

&&

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LIFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AND PROVIDES A ROUND
OF DRIZZLE/MIST DURING MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ANY
LIFR VIS EXCEPT FURTHER NORTH WHERE MCW REMAINS WELL INTO THE CAA
AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CIG WITH INTERMITTENT LIFR
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT THU APR 28 2016

OBSERVATIONS AND MRMS PRECIP ESTIMATES INDICATE THAT THE RACCOON
BASIN RECEIVED THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAINS OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS
WITH MANY AMOUNTS FROM 1-1.25 INCHES. LATEST 00Z RFC
FORECASTS...WITH 24 HOURS OF QPF...STILL DEPICT WITHIN BANK RISES
WITH FLOODING NOT ANTICIPATED FROM THIS INITIAL ROUND OF PRECIP. WED
RFC 72 HOUR QPF CONTINGENCY FORECASTS SUGGESTED PRECIP FROM THE NEXT
SYSTEM WOULD BE REMOVED ENOUGH FROM THIS RUNOFF TO KEEP THE OUTLOOK
BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR ALL FORECAST POINTS...HOWEVER IT WILL BE VERY
CLOSE IN PARTS OF THE DES MOINES AND RACCOON BASINS SO CONFIDENCE IN
NOT REACHING FLOOD STAGE HAS DIMINISHED SOMEWHAT FROM THIS TIME
YESTERDAY. CURRENT QPF FOR THESE AREAS WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM IS
ESSENTIALLY 0.75-1.25 INCHES...BUT IF THOSE EXPECTATIONS ARE
EXCEEDED A FEW SPOTS MAY ECLIPSE FLOOD STAGE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280445
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1145 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 458 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN IS STORM OVER EASTERN TAYLOR MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ADAMS/SOUTHWEST UNION. THIS STORM IS
IN THE BEST ENVIRONMENT AS THE ENVIRONMENT WEST/NORTHWEST HAS
BEEN CONTAMINATED BY OTHER CONVECTION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 40-50
KNOTS IN THE UNTAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP IT GOING UNTIL SUNSET. THIS STORM IS MOVING INTO 0-1KM
HELICITY OF 150 M2/S2 AND ALONG A GRADIENT OF THE 0-3KM MLCAPE.
ROTATION CONTINUES TO WOBBLE BUT NO REPORTS OF ANY TORNADO OR
FUNNEL CLOUD ATTM. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUITABLE FOR
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LINE OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION HAS INITIATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
OVER THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS AHEAD OF STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH OUT OF MO AND
INTO SOUTHERN/SW IOWA WITH 15 TO 20 KT EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE DRY SLOT WILL
YIELD AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR STORMS
TO REALIZE...THOUGH THE NARROW CAPE PROFILE SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL HAIL THREAT IN SOUTHERN IOWA. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE
TORNADOES IN AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT. INCREASING HELICITY AND
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE A FAVORABLE
TORNADO ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WARM
FRONT HAS STRUGGLED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT IS
ANTICIPATED TO LIFT AS FAR NORTH AS HWY 34 TO HWY S92 AS THE
SURFACE LOW PIVOTS BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN SYNOPTIC
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING MORE TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN IOWA CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT OUTRUNS THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO LINGER IN THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH THE COOL AIR REGIME AND RECENT RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THEME AS
WELL AS FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON THURSDAY MORNING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE CWA AND WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD. MOISTURE AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WANING IN THE AFTERNOON AS
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER.

NEXT WX SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. PV ANOMALY / UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. SYSTEM WILL BE SIMILAR IN STRUCTURE TO THE ONE PRESENTLY
AFFECTING THE REGION. LARGE...COHERENT AREA OF KINEMATIC FORCING
AND MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE CWA ON SATURDAY.
QUESTION IS IF INSTABILITY WILL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR THUNDER...DO NOT SEE A COMPELLING
ENOUGH CASE TO REMOVE IT FROM THE GOING FORECAST. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH PWAT PERCENTILES AT OR ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE...AND THEIR RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE LONGER THAN
TYPICAL. IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS ON SURFACE FRONT PLACEMENT...WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT INTO FAR SOUTHERN IA AND THE
GFS FARTHER SOUTH IN CENTRAL MO. AS WITH TODAY...LOCATION OF
SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...SO SUBSEQUENT MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

UPPER LEVEL LOW HANGS AROUND THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY...SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. FORCING AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS EAST LATER MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH RATHER LIGHT FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH FILLS
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AMPLE
THUS FOG POTENTIAL. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FURTHER ON THEIR
SOLUTIONS. GFS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES EJECTING A
PV ANOMALY / SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PHASED
APPROACH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORCING
LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LIFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AND PROVIDES A ROUND
OF DRIZZLE/MIST DURING MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ANY
LIFR VIS EXCEPT FURTHER NORTH WHERE MCW REMAINS WELL INTO THE CAA
AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CIG WITH INTERMITTENT LIFR
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

HEAVIEST RAIN FELL OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...WHERE AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.25 INCHES FELL...WITH A COUPLE
ISOLATED POCKETS OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. RIVERS IN THOSE AREAS
EXPERIENCED MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT WITHIN-BANK RISES. EVEN THAT
RAINFALL COMBINED WITH QPF OVER THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT FLOOD STAGES WILL NOT BE REACHED. NEXT
WX SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED...AND MAY SEE A COUPLE LOCATIONS REACH MINOR
FLOODING BY LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS WOULD BE IN SOUTHERN IOWA...SOUTH OF I-80...WHERE
THE RAINFALL FROM BOTH THE ONGOING AND COMING WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
SEE THE HIGHEST COMBINED TOTALS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PODRAZIK
SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...SMALL/ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 280445
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1145 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 458 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN IS STORM OVER EASTERN TAYLOR MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ADAMS/SOUTHWEST UNION. THIS STORM IS
IN THE BEST ENVIRONMENT AS THE ENVIRONMENT WEST/NORTHWEST HAS
BEEN CONTAMINATED BY OTHER CONVECTION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 40-50
KNOTS IN THE UNTAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT TO
KEEP IT GOING UNTIL SUNSET. THIS STORM IS MOVING INTO 0-1KM
HELICITY OF 150 M2/S2 AND ALONG A GRADIENT OF THE 0-3KM MLCAPE.
ROTATION CONTINUES TO WOBBLE BUT NO REPORTS OF ANY TORNADO OR
FUNNEL CLOUD ATTM. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUITABLE FOR
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LINE OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION HAS INITIATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
OVER THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS AHEAD OF STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH OUT OF MO AND
INTO SOUTHERN/SW IOWA WITH 15 TO 20 KT EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE DRY SLOT WILL
YIELD AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR STORMS
TO REALIZE...THOUGH THE NARROW CAPE PROFILE SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL HAIL THREAT IN SOUTHERN IOWA. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE
TORNADOES IN AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT. INCREASING HELICITY AND
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE A FAVORABLE
TORNADO ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WARM
FRONT HAS STRUGGLED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT IS
ANTICIPATED TO LIFT AS FAR NORTH AS HWY 34 TO HWY S92 AS THE
SURFACE LOW PIVOTS BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN SYNOPTIC
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING MORE TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN IOWA CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT OUTRUNS THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO LINGER IN THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH THE COOL AIR REGIME AND RECENT RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THEME AS
WELL AS FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON THURSDAY MORNING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE CWA AND WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD. MOISTURE AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WANING IN THE AFTERNOON AS
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER.

NEXT WX SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. PV ANOMALY / UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. SYSTEM WILL BE SIMILAR IN STRUCTURE TO THE ONE PRESENTLY
AFFECTING THE REGION. LARGE...COHERENT AREA OF KINEMATIC FORCING
AND MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE CWA ON SATURDAY.
QUESTION IS IF INSTABILITY WILL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR THUNDER...DO NOT SEE A COMPELLING
ENOUGH CASE TO REMOVE IT FROM THE GOING FORECAST. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH PWAT PERCENTILES AT OR ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE...AND THEIR RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE LONGER THAN
TYPICAL. IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS ON SURFACE FRONT PLACEMENT...WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT INTO FAR SOUTHERN IA AND THE
GFS FARTHER SOUTH IN CENTRAL MO. AS WITH TODAY...LOCATION OF
SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...SO SUBSEQUENT MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

UPPER LEVEL LOW HANGS AROUND THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY...SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. FORCING AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS EAST LATER MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH RATHER LIGHT FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH FILLS
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AMPLE
THUS FOG POTENTIAL. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FURTHER ON THEIR
SOLUTIONS. GFS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES EJECTING A
PV ANOMALY / SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PHASED
APPROACH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORCING
LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT/
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LIFR TO MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE ENTIRE TAF PERIOD.
SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE STATE THURSDAY AND PROVIDES A ROUND
OF DRIZZLE/MIST DURING MUCH OF THE DAY. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN ANY
LIFR VIS EXCEPT FURTHER NORTH WHERE MCW REMAINS WELL INTO THE CAA
AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER FORCING. REGARDLESS...CONFIDENT AT LEAST
MVFR CIGS WILL BE THE PREDOMINANT CIG WITH INTERMITTENT LIFR
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY THURSDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

HEAVIEST RAIN FELL OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...WHERE AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.25 INCHES FELL...WITH A COUPLE
ISOLATED POCKETS OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. RIVERS IN THOSE AREAS
EXPERIENCED MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT WITHIN-BANK RISES. EVEN THAT
RAINFALL COMBINED WITH QPF OVER THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT FLOOD STAGES WILL NOT BE REACHED. NEXT
WX SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED...AND MAY SEE A COUPLE LOCATIONS REACH MINOR
FLOODING BY LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS WOULD BE IN SOUTHERN IOWA...SOUTH OF I-80...WHERE
THE RAINFALL FROM BOTH THE ONGOING AND COMING WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
SEE THE HIGHEST COMBINED TOTALS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PODRAZIK
SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...SMALL/ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 272353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
653 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 458 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN IS STORM OVER EASTERN TAYLOR MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ADAMS/SOUTHWEST UNION. THIS STORM IS
IN THE BEST ENVIRONMENT AS THE ENVIRONMENT WEST/NORTHWEST HAS
BEEN CONTAMINATED BY OTHER CONVECTION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 40-50
KNOTS IN THE UNTAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
TO KEEP IT GOING UNTIL SUNSET. THIS STORM IS MOVING INTO 0-1KM
HELICITY OF 150 M2/S2 AND ALONG A GRADIENT OF THE 0-3KM MLCAPE.
ROTATION CONTINUES TO WOBBLE BUT NO REPORTS OF ANY TORNADO OR
FUNNEL CLOUD ATTM. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUITABLE FOR
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LINE OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION HAS INITIATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
OVER THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS AHEAD OF STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH OUT OF MO AND
INTO SOUTHERN/SW IOWA WITH 15 TO 20 KT EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE DRY SLOT WILL
YIELD AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR STORMS
TO REALIZE...THOUGH THE NARROW CAPE PROFILE SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL HAIL THREAT IN SOUTHERN IOWA. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE
TORNADOES IN AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT. INCREASING HELICITY AND
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE A FAVORABLE
TORNADO ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WARM
FRONT HAS STRUGGLED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT IS
ANTICIPATED TO LIFT AS FAR NORTH AS HWY 34 TO HWY S92 AS THE
SURFACE LOW PIVOTS BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN SYNOPTIC
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING MORE TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN IOWA CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT OUTRUNS THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO LINGER IN THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH THE COOL AIR REGIME AND RECENT RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THEME AS
WELL AS FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON THURSDAY MORNING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE CWA AND WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD. MOISTURE AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WANING IN THE AFTERNOON AS
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER.

NEXT WX SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. PV ANOMALY / UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. SYSTEM WILL BE SIMILAR IN STRUCTURE TO THE ONE PRESENTLY
AFFECTING THE REGION. LARGE...COHERENT AREA OF KINEMATIC FORCING
AND MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE CWA ON SATURDAY.
QUESTION IS IF INSTABILITY WILL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR THUNDER...DO NOT SEE A COMPELLING
ENOUGH CASE TO REMOVE IT FROM THE GOING FORECAST. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH PWAT PERCENTILES AT OR ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE...AND THEIR RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE LONGER THAN
TYPICAL. IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS ON SURFACE FRONT PLACEMENT...WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT INTO FAR SOUTHERN IA AND THE
GFS FARTHER SOUTH IN CENTRAL MO. AS WITH TODAY...LOCATION OF
SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...SO SUBSEQUENT MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

UPPER LEVEL LOW HANGS AROUND THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY...SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. FORCING AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS EAST LATER MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH RATHER LIGHT FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH FILLS
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AMPLE
THUS FOG POTENTIAL. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FURTHER ON THEIR
SOLUTIONS. GFS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES EJECTING A
PV ANOMALY / SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PHASED
APPROACH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORCING
LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING/
ISSUED AT 646 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LIFR TO MIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. LINE OF STORMS LOOKS TO AFFECT DSM B/T 01-04Z AND MAY
BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE LOW CIGS PERSISTING
OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY. SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE PRECIP LATE
TONIGHT...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PERIODS OF DRIZZLE DEVELOPING.
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN THE CIGS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AS THE
LOW FINALLY PUSHES EAST OF THE STATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

HEAVIEST RAIN FELL OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...WHERE AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.25 INCHES FELL...WITH A COUPLE
ISOLATED POCKETS OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. RIVERS IN THOSE AREAS
EXPERIENCED MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT WITHIN-BANK RISES. EVEN THAT
RAINFALL COMBINED WITH QPF OVER THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT FLOOD STAGES WILL NOT BE REACHED. NEXT
WX SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED...AND MAY SEE A COUPLE LOCATIONS REACH MINOR
FLOODING BY LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS WOULD BE IN SOUTHERN IOWA...SOUTH OF I-80...WHERE
THE RAINFALL FROM BOTH THE ONGOING AND COMING WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
SEE THE HIGHEST COMBINED TOTALS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...PODRAZIK
SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...PODRAZIK
HYDROLOGY...SMALL/ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 272158
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
458 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 458 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE MAIN CONCERN IS STORM OVER EASTERN TAYLOR MOVING NORTH-
NORTHEAST TOWARDS SOUTHEAST ADAMS/SOUTHWEST UNION. THIS STORM IS
IN THE BEST ENVIRONMENT AS THE ENVIRONMENT WEST/NORTHWEST HAS
BEEN CONTAMINATED BY OTHER CONVECTION. EFFECTIVE SHEAR IS 40-50
KNOTS IN THE UNTAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND INSTABILITY IS SUFFICIENT
TO KEEP IT GOING UNTIL SUNSET. THIS STORM IS MOVING INTO 0-1KM
HELICITY OF 150 M2/S2 AND ALONG A GRADIENT OF THE 0-3KM MLCAPE.
ROTATION CONTINUES TO WOBBLE BUT NO REPORTS OF ANY TORNADO OR
FUNNEL CLOUD ATTM. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENT REMAINS SUITABLE FOR
TORNADIC DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
THROUGH AT LEAST 01Z TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LINE OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION HAS INITIATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
OVER THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS AHEAD OF STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH OUT OF MO AND
INTO SOUTHERN/SW IOWA WITH 15 TO 20 KT EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE DRY SLOT WILL
YIELD AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR STORMS
TO REALIZE...THOUGH THE NARROW CAPE PROFILE SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL HAIL THREAT IN SOUTHERN IOWA. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE
TORNADOES IN AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT. INCREASING HELICITY AND
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE A FAVORABLE
TORNADO ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WARM
FRONT HAS STRUGGLED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT IS
ANTICIPATED TO LIFT AS FAR NORTH AS HWY 34 TO HWY S92 AS THE
SURFACE LOW PIVOTS BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN SYNOPTIC
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING MORE TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN IOWA CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT OUTRUNS THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO LINGER IN THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH THE COOL AIR REGIME AND RECENT RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THEME AS
WELL AS FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON THURSDAY MORNING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE CWA AND WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD. MOISTURE AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WANING IN THE AFTERNOON AS
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER.

NEXT WX SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. PV ANOMALY / UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. SYSTEM WILL BE SIMILAR IN STRUCTURE TO THE ONE PRESENTLY
AFFECTING THE REGION. LARGE...COHERENT AREA OF KINEMATIC FORCING
AND MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE CWA ON SATURDAY.
QUESTION IS IF INSTABILITY WILL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR THUNDER...DO NOT SEE A COMPELLING
ENOUGH CASE TO REMOVE IT FROM THE GOING FORECAST. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH PWAT PERCENTILES AT OR ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE...AND THEIR RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE LONGER THAN
TYPICAL. IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS ON SURFACE FRONT PLACEMENT...WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT INTO FAR SOUTHERN IA AND THE
GFS FARTHER SOUTH IN CENTRAL MO. AS WITH TODAY...LOCATION OF
SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...SO SUBSEQUENT MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

UPPER LEVEL LOW HANGS AROUND THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY...SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. FORCING AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS EAST LATER MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH RATHER LIGHT FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH FILLS
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AMPLE
THUS FOG POTENTIAL. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FURTHER ON THEIR
SOLUTIONS. GFS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES EJECTING A
PV ANOMALY / SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PHASED
APPROACH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORCING
LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA...GRADUALLY
LIFTING DURING PEAK HEATING AND THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT. RAIN
OVER NORTHERN IOWA WILL LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND MOVING
NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

HEAVIEST RAIN FELL OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...WHERE AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.25 INCHES FELL...WITH A COUPLE
ISOLATED POCKETS OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. RIVERS IN THOSE AREAS
EXPERIENCED MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT WITHIN-BANK RISES. EVEN THAT
RAINFALL COMBINED WITH QPF OVER THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT FLOOD STAGES WILL NOT BE REACHED. NEXT
WX SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED...AND MAY SEE A COUPLE LOCATIONS REACH MINOR
FLOODING BY LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS WOULD BE IN SOUTHERN IOWA...SOUTH OF I-80...WHERE
THE RAINFALL FROM BOTH THE ONGOING AND COMING WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
SEE THE HIGHEST COMBINED TOTALS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PODRAZIK
SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...SKOW
HYDROLOGY...SMALL/ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 272014
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
314 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TONIGHT/
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

LINE OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION HAS INITIATED IN THE WARM SECTOR
OVER THE LAST ONE TO TWO HOURS AHEAD OF STACKED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA. WARM FRONT IS LIFTING NORTH OUT OF MO AND
INTO SOUTHERN/SW IOWA WITH 15 TO 20 KT EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
BOUNDARY. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES UNDER THE DRY SLOT WILL
YIELD AROUND 500-1000 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN THE WARM SECTOR FOR STORMS
TO REALIZE...THOUGH THE NARROW CAPE PROFILE SHOULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL HAIL THREAT IN SOUTHERN IOWA. BIGGEST CONCERN WILL BE
TORNADOES IN AND NEAR THE WARM FRONT. INCREASING HELICITY AND
MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE A FAVORABLE
TORNADO ENVIRONMENT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. WARM
FRONT HAS STRUGGLED TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY BUT IS
ANTICIPATED TO LIFT AS FAR NORTH AS HWY 34 TO HWY S92 AS THE
SURFACE LOW PIVOTS BETWEEN NOW AND 00Z.

OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN IN SYNOPTIC
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING MORE TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL IOWA
OVERNIGHT. THE SOUTHERN IOWA CONVECTION WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT OUTRUNS THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. LOW STRATUS CLOUDS WILL ALSO LINGER IN THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT WITH THE COOL AIR REGIME AND RECENT RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM.../THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE THE UNSETTLED WEATHER THEME AS
WELL AS FEATURE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. ON THURSDAY MORNING THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER THE CWA AND WILL
SLIDE EASTWARD. MOISTURE AND KINEMATIC FORCING WILL BE ENOUGH FOR
PRECIP ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING...BUT WANING IN THE AFTERNOON AS
BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SLIDE EAST OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR THUNDER.

NEXT WX SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE CWA WILL ARRIVE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. PV ANOMALY / UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. SYSTEM WILL BE SIMILAR IN STRUCTURE TO THE ONE PRESENTLY
AFFECTING THE REGION. LARGE...COHERENT AREA OF KINEMATIC FORCING
AND MOISTURE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD PRECIP TO THE CWA ON SATURDAY.
QUESTION IS IF INSTABILITY WILL ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. ALTHOUGH
INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL FOR THUNDER...DO NOT SEE A COMPELLING
ENOUGH CASE TO REMOVE IT FROM THE GOING FORECAST. MODERATE TO
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...WITH PWAT PERCENTILES AT OR ABOVE THE
90TH PERCENTILE...AND THEIR RESIDENCE TIME WILL BE LONGER THAN
TYPICAL. IN TERMS OF SEVERE POTENTIAL...ECMWF IS SIGNIFICANTLY
FARTHER NORTH THAN THE GFS ON SURFACE FRONT PLACEMENT...WITH THE
ECMWF BRINGING THE SURFACE FRONT INTO FAR SOUTHERN IA AND THE
GFS FARTHER SOUTH IN CENTRAL MO. AS WITH TODAY...LOCATION OF
SURFACE FRONT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...SO SUBSEQUENT MODEL SOLUTIONS WILL HAVE TO BE
MONITORED.

UPPER LEVEL LOW HANGS AROUND THE CWA THROUGH SUNDAY...SLOWLY
MOVING EASTWARD. FORCING AND MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASE AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS EAST LATER MONDAY. IN THE WAKE OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...ALONG WITH RATHER LIGHT FLOW AS THE SURFACE HIGH FILLS
IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AMPLE
THUS FOG POTENTIAL. MODELS THEN DIVERGE FURTHER ON THEIR
SOLUTIONS. GFS SHOWS UPPER LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE ROCKIES EJECTING A
PV ANOMALY / SHORTWAVE...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS A MORE PHASED
APPROACH WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROF EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA INTO THE EASTERN ROCKIES BY TUESDAY. REGARDLESS...FORCING
LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TOWARD THE
END OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA...GRADUALLY
LIFTING DURING PEAK HEATING AND THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT. RAIN
OVER NORTHERN IOWA WILL LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND MOVING
NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 302 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

HEAVIEST RAIN FELL OVER THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN CWA OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS...WHERE AS MUCH AS 1 TO 1.25 INCHES FELL...WITH A COUPLE
ISOLATED POCKETS OF 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES. RIVERS IN THOSE AREAS
EXPERIENCED MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT WITHIN-BANK RISES. EVEN THAT
RAINFALL COMBINED WITH QPF OVER THROUGH THURSDAY...MODERATE TO
HIGH CONFIDENCE EXISTS THAT FLOOD STAGES WILL NOT BE REACHED. NEXT
WX SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN. ADDITIONAL MODERATE TO SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED...AND MAY SEE A COUPLE LOCATIONS REACH MINOR
FLOODING BY LATE THIS COMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOST
LIKELY LOCATIONS WOULD BE IN SOUTHERN IOWA...SOUTH OF I-80...WHERE
THE RAINFALL FROM BOTH THE ONGOING AND COMING WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL
SEE THE HIGHEST COMBINED TOTALS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKOW
LONG TERM...ZOGG
AVIATION...SKOW
HYDROLOGY...SMALL/ZOGG





000
FXUS63 KDMX 271750
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1250 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

HAVE FINED TUNED POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT
RECENT CAM RUNS AND DENOTE THE MOST PROBABLE BREAKS IN ANY
PRECIP. FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IOWA REMAINS ON TRACK WITH RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
OTHER HIGH RES MODELS BRINGING THE WARM FRONT UP TO HWY 34 BY
21-22Z AND SURFACE OBS MATCHING THIS IDEA WITH THE FRONT STARTING
TO NOSE INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TIP OF IOWA. THE BIG QUESTION WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT WRAPS NORTHEASTWARD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE DATA DOES SHOW A POCKET OF CLEARING IN SE NEBRASKA
SPREADING EASTWARD AND TRENDS WITH THIS CLEARING WILL BE MONITORED
OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

CONVECTION TODAY...AND MORE SPECIFICALLY SEVERE POTENTIAL...WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT GETS TO. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL PIVOT FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 06Z
THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM NORTH CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THIS SAME TIME
FRAME. THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM
FRONT BUT ALL MODELS PLACE IT INTO AT LEAST AS FAR AS FAR NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THE GFS LIFTS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
IOWA AND AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
IN IOWA WHILE THE NAM IS AT LEAST SIMILAR...IT DOES NOT BRING IT
QUITE AS FAR NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND IT IS A BIT LATER IN LIFTING THE FRONT INTO FAR SOUTHERN
IOWA.

EITHER WAY...GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW FROM LATE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WHERE A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO WOULD
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. OF COURSE IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
HOW MUCH WE WILL ACTUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
NEARLY ALL DAY. THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS FIRST BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WITH A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE STORMS REFIRE IN THE 21Z TO
00Z TIMEFRAME THEN THAT ROTATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. IF THAT SCENARIO PLAYS OUT WE WOULD CLEAR OUT
SOME AND HAVE SOME TIME TO DESTABILIZE FURTHER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. THE NAM GIVES US A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SEVERE WINDOW.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

OVERALL THE SITUATION REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED
YESTERDAY. A WEAK FLOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH THE ROCKIES
WILL KEEP IA IN A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESSENTIALLY SEASONALLY COOL AND DAMP. AT ONSET THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND
THAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL DEPENDING ON WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY FROM THE FRONT
REMAINING INTO MO /HI RES ARW AND NMMB/ TO WELL INTO SRN IA /GFS/.
00Z ECMWF IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS WHILE THE NAM AND NESTED NAM
HAVE MORE OF A NW-SE ORIENTATION...JUST PLACING SWRN SECTIONS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY WELL INTO
MO...RECENT 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPANDING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
KS SURFACE LOW SO EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH AT LEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z WITH THE NAM POSSIBLY LOOKING THE MOST
REASONABLE. IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE
A TORNADO OR NOTHING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY
CAPES WITH WEAK DEEP SHEAR. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD BE
THERMODYNAMICALLY DOMINATE TORNADOES DRIVEN BY 0-3KM CAPES 100-200
J/KG AT A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL MLCAPE...VERY LOW LCLS...AND
ADEQUATE SURFACE VORTICITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THUS CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THE CURRENT SPC CATEGORICAL SLIGHT SEVERE OUTLOOK...AND
WOULD NOT OPPOSE THE TOR PROBABILITIES NUDGED A BIT FARTHER NORTH
INTO IA.

ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD QUICKLY WANE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO IA. LOBE OF
FORCING NORTH AND EAST OF ITS TRACK WILL KEEP RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GOING INTO THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL EXIT THU WITH POPS
DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THU NIGHT
AND FRI. TEMPS WILL RECOVER LITTLE THU WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS
AND WINDS BECOMING NLY. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MO
BORDER...THE DIURNAL SWING WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10F.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CA/OR
COAST AND THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH ITS PROGRESSION.
BOTH KEEP IA IN THE COOL SECTOR WITH THE SURFACE TRACK TO THE SOUTH.
A LOBE OF PHASED MECHANICAL DPVA/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM/THETA-E
ADVECTION BELOW SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SPREADING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME BELOW SEVERE THUNDER INTO IA BY SAT AND LINGERING
INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUN. THUS HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING AND ONLY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO SUN NIGHT. CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA WILL
AGAIN SEE THE BRUNT OF THIS PRECIP WITH AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
MORE. THE FLOW IS WEAK AND NON-DESCRIPT INTO MON AND TUE AND
ESSENTIALLY DRY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PERIODS OF FOG
AND/OR STRATUS WITH VERY WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND MOIST GROUND/LOW
LEVELS AFTER THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA...GRADUALLY
LIFTING DURING PEAK HEATING AND THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT. RAIN
OVER NORTHERN IOWA WILL LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND MOVING
NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON 24 HOURS OF QPF STARTING AT 00Z SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA...AND THERE IS STILL MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT FLOOD STAGES WILL NOT BE REACHED WITH THIS CURRENT
SYSTEM AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY HAVE EVEN BEEN A TOUCH OVER
FORECAST. RFC CONTINGENCY FORECASTS THROUGH 72 HOURS SUGGEST
SIMILAR OUTCOMES WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AS WELL WITH SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES AND JUST AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL OF REACHING FLOOD
STAGE AT A FEW SPOTS IN THE RACCOON AND DES MOINES BASINS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SKOW
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...SKOW
HYDROLOGY...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 271750
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1250 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

HAVE FINED TUNED POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT
RECENT CAM RUNS AND DENOTE THE MOST PROBABLE BREAKS IN ANY
PRECIP. FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IOWA REMAINS ON TRACK WITH RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
OTHER HIGH RES MODELS BRINGING THE WARM FRONT UP TO HWY 34 BY
21-22Z AND SURFACE OBS MATCHING THIS IDEA WITH THE FRONT STARTING
TO NOSE INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TIP OF IOWA. THE BIG QUESTION WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT WRAPS NORTHEASTWARD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE DATA DOES SHOW A POCKET OF CLEARING IN SE NEBRASKA
SPREADING EASTWARD AND TRENDS WITH THIS CLEARING WILL BE MONITORED
OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

CONVECTION TODAY...AND MORE SPECIFICALLY SEVERE POTENTIAL...WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT GETS TO. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL PIVOT FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 06Z
THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM NORTH CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THIS SAME TIME
FRAME. THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM
FRONT BUT ALL MODELS PLACE IT INTO AT LEAST AS FAR AS FAR NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THE GFS LIFTS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
IOWA AND AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
IN IOWA WHILE THE NAM IS AT LEAST SIMILAR...IT DOES NOT BRING IT
QUITE AS FAR NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND IT IS A BIT LATER IN LIFTING THE FRONT INTO FAR SOUTHERN
IOWA.

EITHER WAY...GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW FROM LATE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WHERE A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO WOULD
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. OF COURSE IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
HOW MUCH WE WILL ACTUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
NEARLY ALL DAY. THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS FIRST BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WITH A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE STORMS REFIRE IN THE 21Z TO
00Z TIMEFRAME THEN THAT ROTATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. IF THAT SCENARIO PLAYS OUT WE WOULD CLEAR OUT
SOME AND HAVE SOME TIME TO DESTABILIZE FURTHER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. THE NAM GIVES US A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SEVERE WINDOW.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

OVERALL THE SITUATION REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED
YESTERDAY. A WEAK FLOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH THE ROCKIES
WILL KEEP IA IN A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESSENTIALLY SEASONALLY COOL AND DAMP. AT ONSET THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND
THAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL DEPENDING ON WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY FROM THE FRONT
REMAINING INTO MO /HI RES ARW AND NMMB/ TO WELL INTO SRN IA /GFS/.
00Z ECMWF IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS WHILE THE NAM AND NESTED NAM
HAVE MORE OF A NW-SE ORIENTATION...JUST PLACING SWRN SECTIONS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY WELL INTO
MO...RECENT 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPANDING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
KS SURFACE LOW SO EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH AT LEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z WITH THE NAM POSSIBLY LOOKING THE MOST
REASONABLE. IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE
A TORNADO OR NOTHING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY
CAPES WITH WEAK DEEP SHEAR. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD BE
THERMODYNAMICALLY DOMINATE TORNADOES DRIVEN BY 0-3KM CAPES 100-200
J/KG AT A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL MLCAPE...VERY LOW LCLS...AND
ADEQUATE SURFACE VORTICITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THUS CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THE CURRENT SPC CATEGORICAL SLIGHT SEVERE OUTLOOK...AND
WOULD NOT OPPOSE THE TOR PROBABILITIES NUDGED A BIT FARTHER NORTH
INTO IA.

ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD QUICKLY WANE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO IA. LOBE OF
FORCING NORTH AND EAST OF ITS TRACK WILL KEEP RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GOING INTO THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL EXIT THU WITH POPS
DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THU NIGHT
AND FRI. TEMPS WILL RECOVER LITTLE THU WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS
AND WINDS BECOMING NLY. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MO
BORDER...THE DIURNAL SWING WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10F.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CA/OR
COAST AND THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH ITS PROGRESSION.
BOTH KEEP IA IN THE COOL SECTOR WITH THE SURFACE TRACK TO THE SOUTH.
A LOBE OF PHASED MECHANICAL DPVA/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM/THETA-E
ADVECTION BELOW SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SPREADING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME BELOW SEVERE THUNDER INTO IA BY SAT AND LINGERING
INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUN. THUS HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING AND ONLY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO SUN NIGHT. CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA WILL
AGAIN SEE THE BRUNT OF THIS PRECIP WITH AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
MORE. THE FLOW IS WEAK AND NON-DESCRIPT INTO MON AND TUE AND
ESSENTIALLY DRY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PERIODS OF FOG
AND/OR STRATUS WITH VERY WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND MOIST GROUND/LOW
LEVELS AFTER THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON/
ISSUED AT 1250 PM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH LOCALIZED LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL IOWA...GRADUALLY
LIFTING DURING PEAK HEATING AND THEN DECREASING OVERNIGHT. RAIN
OVER NORTHERN IOWA WILL LIFT NORTH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHERN IOWA AND MOVING
NORTH TONIGHT. WINDS WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST AT 10 TO 20 KTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON 24 HOURS OF QPF STARTING AT 00Z SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA...AND THERE IS STILL MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT FLOOD STAGES WILL NOT BE REACHED WITH THIS CURRENT
SYSTEM AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY HAVE EVEN BEEN A TOUCH OVER
FORECAST. RFC CONTINGENCY FORECASTS THROUGH 72 HOURS SUGGEST
SIMILAR OUTCOMES WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AS WELL WITH SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES AND JUST AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL OF REACHING FLOOD
STAGE AT A FEW SPOTS IN THE RACCOON AND DES MOINES BASINS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SKOW
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...SKOW
HYDROLOGY...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 271519
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1019 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1014 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

HAVE FINED TUNED POPS FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT TO BETTER REFLECT
RECENT CAM RUNS AND DENOTE THE MOST PROBABLE BREAKS IN ANY
PRECIP. FORECAST FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS
SOUTHWEST IOWA REMAINS ON TRACK WITH RECENT RUNS OF THE HRRR AND
OTHER HIGH RES MODELS BRINGING THE WARM FRONT UP TO HWY 34 BY
21-22Z AND SURFACE OBS MATCHING THIS IDEA WITH THE FRONT STARTING
TO NOSE INTO THE FAR SOUTHWEST TIP OF IOWA. THE BIG QUESTION WILL
BE THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE DRY SLOT WRAPS NORTHEASTWARD. VISIBLE
SATELLITE DATA DOES SHOW A POCKET OF CLEARING IN SE NEBRASKA
SPREADING EASTWARD AND TRENDS WITH THIS CLEARING WILL BE MONITORED
OVER THE NEXT 3-4 HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

CONVECTION TODAY...AND MORE SPECIFICALLY SEVERE POTENTIAL...WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT GETS TO. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL PIVOT FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 06Z
THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM NORTH CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THIS SAME TIME
FRAME. THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM
FRONT BUT ALL MODELS PLACE IT INTO AT LEAST AS FAR AS FAR NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THE GFS LIFTS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
IOWA AND AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
IN IOWA WHILE THE NAM IS AT LEAST SIMILAR...IT DOES NOT BRING IT
QUITE AS FAR NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND IT IS A BIT LATER IN LIFTING THE FRONT INTO FAR SOUTHERN
IOWA.

EITHER WAY...GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW FROM LATE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WHERE A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO WOULD
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. OF COURSE IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
HOW MUCH WE WILL ACTUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
NEARLY ALL DAY. THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS FIRST BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WITH A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE STORMS REFIRE IN THE 21Z TO
00Z TIMEFRAME THEN THAT ROTATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. IF THAT SCENARIO PLAYS OUT WE WOULD CLEAR OUT
SOME AND HAVE SOME TIME TO DESTABILIZE FURTHER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. THE NAM GIVES US A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SEVERE WINDOW.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

OVERALL THE SITUATION REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED
YESTERDAY. A WEAK FLOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH THE ROCKIES
WILL KEEP IA IN A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESSENTIALLY SEASONALLY COOL AND DAMP. AT ONSET THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND
THAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL DEPENDING ON WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY FROM THE FRONT
REMAINING INTO MO /HI RES ARW AND NMMB/ TO WELL INTO SRN IA /GFS/.
00Z ECMWF IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS WHILE THE NAM AND NESTED NAM
HAVE MORE OF A NW-SE ORIENTATION...JUST PLACING SWRN SECTIONS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY WELL INTO
MO...RECENT 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPANDING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
KS SURFACE LOW SO EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH AT LEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z WITH THE NAM POSSIBLY LOOKING THE MOST
REASONABLE. IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE
A TORNADO OR NOTHING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY
CAPES WITH WEAK DEEP SHEAR. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD BE
THERMODYNAMICALLY DOMINATE TORNADOES DRIVEN BY 0-3KM CAPES 100-200
J/KG AT A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL MLCAPE...VERY LOW LCLS...AND
ADEQUATE SURFACE VORTICITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THUS CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THE CURRENT SPC CATEGORICAL SLIGHT SEVERE OUTLOOK...AND
WOULD NOT OPPOSE THE TOR PROBABILITIES NUDGED A BIT FARTHER NORTH
INTO IA.

ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD QUICKLY WANE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO IA. LOBE OF
FORCING NORTH AND EAST OF ITS TRACK WILL KEEP RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GOING INTO THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL EXIT THU WITH POPS
DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THU NIGHT
AND FRI. TEMPS WILL RECOVER LITTLE THU WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS
AND WINDS BECOMING NLY. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MO
BORDER...THE DIURNAL SWING WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10F.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CA/OR
COAST AND THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH ITS PROGRESSION.
BOTH KEEP IA IN THE COOL SECTOR WITH THE SURFACE TRACK TO THE SOUTH.
A LOBE OF PHASED MECHANICAL DPVA/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM/THETA-E
ADVECTION BELOW SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SPREADING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME BELOW SEVERE THUNDER INTO IA BY SAT AND LINGERING
INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUN. THUS HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING AND ONLY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO SUN NIGHT. CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA WILL
AGAIN SEE THE BRUNT OF THIS PRECIP WITH AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
MORE. THE FLOW IS WEAK AND NON-DESCRIPT INTO MON AND TUE AND
ESSENTIALLY DRY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PERIODS OF FOG
AND/OR STRATUS WITH VERY WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND MOIST GROUND/LOW
LEVELS AFTER THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING/
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MAINLY IFR CIG WITH OCNL LIFR CIGS.  SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 00Z BUT
TIMING OF THE SCT PRECIP DIFFICULT.  I HAVE LEFT VCSH IN FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD AND TRIED TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER. KDSM
AND KOTM WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT TO NRN MO AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN IA AND WILL LIKELY BUCKLE A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS OUT
OF SE NEB.  STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FM 21-01Z INVOF THE FRONT WITH
MULTIPLE AVIATION HAZARDS POSSIBLE.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON 24 HOURS OF QPF STARTING AT 00Z SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA...AND THERE IS STILL MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT FLOOD STAGES WILL NOT BE REACHED WITH THIS CURRENT
SYSTEM AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY HAVE EVEN BEEN A TOUCH OVER
FORECAST. RFC CONTINGENCY FORECASTS THROUGH 72 HOURS SUGGEST
SIMILAR OUTCOMES WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AS WELL WITH SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES AND JUST AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL OF REACHING FLOOD
STAGE AT A FEW SPOTS IN THE RACCOON AND DES MOINES BASINS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SKOW
SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB
HYDROLOGY...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 271147
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

CONVECTION TODAY...AND MORE SPECIFICALLY SEVERE POTENTIAL...WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT GETS TO. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL PIVOT FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 06Z
THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM NORTH CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THIS SAME TIME
FRAME. THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM
FRONT BUT ALL MODELS PLACE IT INTO AT LEAST AS FAR AS FAR NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THE GFS LIFTS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
IOWA AND AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
IN IOWA WHILE THE NAM IS AT LEAST SIMILAR...IT DOES NOT BRING IT
QUITE AS FAR NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND IT IS A BIT LATER IN LIFTING THE FRONT INTO FAR SOUTHERN
IOWA.

EITHER WAY...GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW FROM LATE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WHERE A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO WOULD
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. OF COURSE IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
HOW MUCH WE WILL ACTUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
NEARLY ALL DAY. THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS FIRST BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WITH A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE STORMS REFIRE IN THE 21Z TO
00Z TIMEFRAME THEN THAT ROTATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. IF THAT SCENARIO PLAYS OUT WE WOULD CLEAR OUT
SOME AND HAVE SOME TIME TO DESTABILIZE FURTHER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. THE NAM GIVES US A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SEVERE WINDOW.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

OVERALL THE SITUATION REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED
YESTERDAY. A WEAK FLOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH THE ROCKIES
WILL KEEP IA IN A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESSENTIALLY SEASONALLY COOL AND DAMP. AT ONSET THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND
THAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL DEPENDING ON WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY FROM THE FRONT
REMAINING INTO MO /HI RES ARW AND NMMB/ TO WELL INTO SRN IA /GFS/.
00Z ECMWF IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS WHILE THE NAM AND NESTED NAM
HAVE MORE OF A NW-SE ORIENTATION...JUST PLACING SWRN SECTIONS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY WELL INTO
MO...RECENT 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPANDING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
KS SURFACE LOW SO EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH AT LEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z WITH THE NAM POSSIBLY LOOKING THE MOST
REASONABLE. IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE
A TORNADO OR NOTHING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY
CAPES WITH WEAK DEEP SHEAR. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD BE
THERMODYNAMICALLY DOMINATE TORNADOES DRIVEN BY 0-3KM CAPES 100-200
J/KG AT A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL MLCAPE...VERY LOW LCLS...AND
ADEQUATE SURFACE VORTICITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THUS CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THE CURRENT SPC CATEGORICAL SLIGHT SEVERE OUTLOOK...AND
WOULD NOT OPPOSE THE TOR PROBABILITIES NUDGED A BIT FARTHER NORTH
INTO IA.

ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD QUICKLY WANE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO IA. LOBE OF
FORCING NORTH AND EAST OF ITS TRACK WILL KEEP RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GOING INTO THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL EXIT THU WITH POPS
DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THU NIGHT
AND FRI. TEMPS WILL RECOVER LITTLE THU WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS
AND WINDS BECOMING NLY. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MO
BORDER...THE DIURNAL SWING WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10F.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CA/OR
COAST AND THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH ITS PROGRESSION.
BOTH KEEP IA IN THE COOL SECTOR WITH THE SURFACE TRACK TO THE SOUTH.
A LOBE OF PHASED MECHANICAL DPVA/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM/THETA-E
ADVECTION BELOW SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SPREADING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME BELOW SEVERE THUNDER INTO IA BY SAT AND LINGERING
INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUN. THUS HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING AND ONLY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO SUN NIGHT. CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA WILL
AGAIN SEE THE BRUNT OF THIS PRECIP WITH AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
MORE. THE FLOW IS WEAK AND NON-DESCRIPT INTO MON AND TUE AND
ESSENTIALLY DRY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PERIODS OF FOG
AND/OR STRATUS WITH VERY WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND MOIST GROUND/LOW
LEVELS AFTER THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING/
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MAINLY IFR CIG WITH OCNL LIFR CIGS.  SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 00Z BUT
TIMING OF THE SCT PRECIP DIFFICULT.  I HAVE LEFT VCSH IN FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD AND TRIED TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER. KDSM
AND KOTM WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT TO NRN MO AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN IA AND WILL LIKELY BUCKLE A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS OUT
OF SE NEB.  STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FM 21-01Z INVOF THE FRONT WITH
MULTIPLE AVIATION HAZARDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON 24 HOURS OF QPF STARTING AT 00Z SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA...AND THERE IS STILL MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT FLOOD STAGES WILL NOT BE REACHED WITH THIS CURRENT
SYSTEM AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY HAVE EVEN BEEN A TOUCH OVER
FORECAST. RFC CONTINGENCY FORECASTS THROUGH 72 HOURS SUGGEST
SIMILAR OUTCOMES WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AS WELL WITH SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES AND JUST AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL OF REACHING FLOOD
STAGE AT A FEW SPOTS IN THE RACCOON AND DES MOINES BASINS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB
HYDROLOGY...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 271147
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
354 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM.../TODAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

CONVECTION TODAY...AND MORE SPECIFICALLY SEVERE POTENTIAL...WILL
LARGELY DEPEND ON WHERE THE WARM FRONT GETS TO. STRONG UPPER LOW
WILL PIVOT FROM WEST CENTRAL KANSAS INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA BY 06Z
THURSDAY. THE SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM NORTH CENTRAL/
NORTHEAST KANSAS INTO FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA DURING THIS SAME TIME
FRAME. THERE REMAIN MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE WARM
FRONT BUT ALL MODELS PLACE IT INTO AT LEAST AS FAR AS FAR NORTHERN
MISSOURI. THE GFS LIFTS THE FRONT FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
IOWA AND AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MOST TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES
IN IOWA WHILE THE NAM IS AT LEAST SIMILAR...IT DOES NOT BRING IT
QUITE AS FAR NORTH ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA AND IT IS A BIT LATER IN LIFTING THE FRONT INTO FAR SOUTHERN
IOWA.

EITHER WAY...GIVEN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR...THERE
APPEARS TO BE A WINDOW FROM LATE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING WHERE A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AND A TORNADO WOULD
BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE BOUNDARY. OF COURSE IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN
HOW MUCH WE WILL ACTUALLY DESTABILIZE WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS PERSISTING ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST
NEARLY ALL DAY. THE NAM DOES SUGGEST THIS FIRST BAND OF
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL LIFT NORTH AND EAST ROTATING AROUND THE LOW
WITH A BREAK IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE STORMS REFIRE IN THE 21Z TO
00Z TIMEFRAME THEN THAT ROTATES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE EVENING. IF THAT SCENARIO PLAYS OUT WE WOULD CLEAR OUT
SOME AND HAVE SOME TIME TO DESTABILIZE FURTHER ACROSS THE FAR
SOUTH. THE NAM GIVES US A BETTER CHANCE FOR A SEVERE WINDOW.

.LONG TERM.../TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

OVERALL THE SITUATION REMAINS VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT WAS EXPECTED
YESTERDAY. A WEAK FLOW AND BLOCKING PATTERN THROUGH THE ROCKIES
WILL KEEP IA IN A VERY SIMILAR WEATHER REGIME THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESSENTIALLY SEASONALLY COOL AND DAMP. AT ONSET THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE WEATHER EARLY IN THE EVENING...AND
THAT IS VERY CONDITIONAL DEPENDING ON WARM FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND
THE AMOUNT OF INSOLATION. MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY FROM THE FRONT
REMAINING INTO MO /HI RES ARW AND NMMB/ TO WELL INTO SRN IA /GFS/.
00Z ECMWF IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE GFS WHILE THE NAM AND NESTED NAM
HAVE MORE OF A NW-SE ORIENTATION...JUST PLACING SWRN SECTIONS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY WELL INTO
MO...RECENT 3HR PRESSURE FALLS ARE EXPANDING RAPIDLY AHEAD OF THE
KS SURFACE LOW SO EXPECT THE FRONT TO REACH AT LEAST PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 00Z WITH THE NAM POSSIBLY LOOKING THE MOST
REASONABLE. IT WOULD SEEM THE ONLY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WOULD BE
A TORNADO OR NOTHING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT FAIRLY TALL/SKINNY
CAPES WITH WEAK DEEP SHEAR. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WOULD BE
THERMODYNAMICALLY DOMINATE TORNADOES DRIVEN BY 0-3KM CAPES 100-200
J/KG AT A HIGH PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL MLCAPE...VERY LOW LCLS...AND
ADEQUATE SURFACE VORTICITY NEAR THE BOUNDARY. THUS CANNOT ARGUE
WITH THE CURRENT SPC CATEGORICAL SLIGHT SEVERE OUTLOOK...AND
WOULD NOT OPPOSE THE TOR PROBABILITIES NUDGED A BIT FARTHER NORTH
INTO IA.

ANY SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD QUICKLY WANE THROUGH THE EVENING
WITH LOSS OF HEATING AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS INTO IA. LOBE OF
FORCING NORTH AND EAST OF ITS TRACK WILL KEEP RAIN AND POSSIBLY A
FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER GOING INTO THE NIGHT WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTH.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED FORCING WILL EXIT THU WITH POPS
DIMINISHING WEST TO EAST LEADING TO MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS THU NIGHT
AND FRI. TEMPS WILL RECOVER LITTLE THU WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS
AND WINDS BECOMING NLY. OUTSIDE OF POSSIBLE TOWARD THE MO
BORDER...THE DIURNAL SWING WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 10F.

THE NEXT SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CA/OR
COAST AND THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE FAIRLY SIMILAR WITH ITS PROGRESSION.
BOTH KEEP IA IN THE COOL SECTOR WITH THE SURFACE TRACK TO THE SOUTH.
A LOBE OF PHASED MECHANICAL DPVA/DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM/THETA-E
ADVECTION BELOW SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM SPREADING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY SOME BELOW SEVERE THUNDER INTO IA BY SAT AND LINGERING
INTO AT LEAST EARLY SUN. THUS HAVE LIKELY POPS GOING AND ONLY
SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO SUN NIGHT. CENTRAL AND WESTERN IA WILL
AGAIN SEE THE BRUNT OF THIS PRECIP WITH AMOUNTS OF AN INCH OR
MORE. THE FLOW IS WEAK AND NON-DESCRIPT INTO MON AND TUE AND
ESSENTIALLY DRY. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME PERIODS OF FOG
AND/OR STRATUS WITH VERY WEAK SURFACE FLOW AND MOIST GROUND/LOW
LEVELS AFTER THESE TWO SYSTEMS.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING/
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

MAINLY IFR CIG WITH OCNL LIFR CIGS.  SCT SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 00Z BUT
TIMING OF THE SCT PRECIP DIFFICULT.  I HAVE LEFT VCSH IN FOR MUCH OF
THE TAF PERIOD AND TRIED TO TIME THE BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER. KDSM
AND KOTM WILL BE MORE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST AS A WARM FRONT WILL
LIFT TO NRN MO AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN IA AND WILL LIKELY BUCKLE A BIT
FURTHER NORTH WEST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR AS THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS OUT
OF SE NEB.  STRONG STORMS POSSIBLE FM 21-01Z INVOF THE FRONT WITH
MULTIPLE AVIATION HAZARDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CDT WED APR 27 2016

RIVER FORECASTS BASED ON 24 HOURS OF QPF STARTING AT 00Z SUGGEST
SIGNIFICANT WITHIN BANK RISES AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS THROUGHOUT
CENTRAL AND WESTERN IOWA...AND THERE IS STILL MODERATE TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT FLOOD STAGES WILL NOT BE REACHED WITH THIS CURRENT
SYSTEM AS RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY HAVE EVEN BEEN A TOUCH OVER
FORECAST. RFC CONTINGENCY FORECASTS THROUGH 72 HOURS SUGGEST
SIMILAR OUTCOMES WITH THE WEEKEND SYSTEM AS WELL WITH SIGNIFICANT
WITHIN BANK RISES AND JUST AN OUTSIDE POTENTIAL OF REACHING FLOOD
STAGE AT A FEW SPOTS IN THE RACCOON AND DES MOINES BASINS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...FAB
HYDROLOGY...SMALL





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