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000
FXUS63 KDMX 060446
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS INTO THE STATE TODAY HAS LED TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. DEWPOINTS HAVE
CLIMBED BACK TO AROUND 70 WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
DAY. SURFACE FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE BULK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MERGE INTO A LARGE MCS IN
SOUTH DAKOTA AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO
MINNESOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR SURFACE LOW TRACK.
THE SOUTHERN EDGE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN IOWA LATE IN THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL COMING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULK OF QG FORCING AND SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTH OF THE STATE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF IOWA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE WARM DURING THE NIGHT WITH READINGS REMAINING
IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS FOR THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO THIS WEEK. IT WILL START ACTIVE ON MONDAY AS A
MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CASTS OFF A
SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY.
GIVEN THE BROAD REGION OF ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THUS CATEGORICAL
POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS
MITIGATED BY THE FACT THAT THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE
DISPLACED FROM THE SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA...AND THAT
INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS LINGERING FROM MONDAY MORNING STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE DESTABILIZATION IS MOST LIKELY.

THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...STALLING ACROSS
MISSOURI WHILE A COOL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDES ACROSS MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN AND PROVIDES US WITH MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY OVERHEAD BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND/OR BRINGING THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MISSOURI BACK
UP ACROSS IOWA. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE
LOW.

BY FRIDAY MORNING A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ASHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR OUR REGION NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHEAST HIGH SHOULD SLIDE WESTWARD INTO THE
TEXARKANA AREA BY SATURDAY KEEPING THE WESTERN TROUGH FROM MAKING
ANY PROGRESS. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF PLACING US WITHIN OR
NEAR THE INFAMOUS RING OF FIRE...AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTED
FROM THE TROUGH OVER TOP THE RIDGE AND GENERATE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES PERIODICALLY MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE ABILITY OF
THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS TO DEPICT THE DETAILS OF THIS RESOLUTION
NEARLY A WEEK OUT IS DUBIOUS...BUT CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER EITHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA OR NEARBY...THUS GENERAL 20 TO 40 POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
UNTIL THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEAR. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH A
REASONABLE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IS THAT BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND WE SEE A RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH THIS WARM UP MAY BE PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED
BY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...06/06Z
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN IA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA LIKELY WILL IMPACT KDSM/KFOD/KMCW LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING AS
A BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO BRING A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
VICINITY OF STORMS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 060446
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS INTO THE STATE TODAY HAS LED TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. DEWPOINTS HAVE
CLIMBED BACK TO AROUND 70 WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
DAY. SURFACE FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE BULK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MERGE INTO A LARGE MCS IN
SOUTH DAKOTA AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO
MINNESOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR SURFACE LOW TRACK.
THE SOUTHERN EDGE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN IOWA LATE IN THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL COMING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULK OF QG FORCING AND SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTH OF THE STATE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF IOWA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE WARM DURING THE NIGHT WITH READINGS REMAINING
IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS FOR THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO THIS WEEK. IT WILL START ACTIVE ON MONDAY AS A
MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CASTS OFF A
SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY.
GIVEN THE BROAD REGION OF ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THUS CATEGORICAL
POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS
MITIGATED BY THE FACT THAT THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE
DISPLACED FROM THE SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA...AND THAT
INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS LINGERING FROM MONDAY MORNING STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE DESTABILIZATION IS MOST LIKELY.

THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...STALLING ACROSS
MISSOURI WHILE A COOL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDES ACROSS MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN AND PROVIDES US WITH MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY OVERHEAD BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND/OR BRINGING THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MISSOURI BACK
UP ACROSS IOWA. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE
LOW.

BY FRIDAY MORNING A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ASHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR OUR REGION NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHEAST HIGH SHOULD SLIDE WESTWARD INTO THE
TEXARKANA AREA BY SATURDAY KEEPING THE WESTERN TROUGH FROM MAKING
ANY PROGRESS. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF PLACING US WITHIN OR
NEAR THE INFAMOUS RING OF FIRE...AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTED
FROM THE TROUGH OVER TOP THE RIDGE AND GENERATE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES PERIODICALLY MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE ABILITY OF
THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS TO DEPICT THE DETAILS OF THIS RESOLUTION
NEARLY A WEEK OUT IS DUBIOUS...BUT CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER EITHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA OR NEARBY...THUS GENERAL 20 TO 40 POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
UNTIL THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEAR. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH A
REASONABLE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IS THAT BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND WE SEE A RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH THIS WARM UP MAY BE PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED
BY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...06/06Z
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN IA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA LIKELY WILL IMPACT KDSM/KFOD/KMCW LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING AS
A BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO BRING A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
VICINITY OF STORMS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 060446
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS INTO THE STATE TODAY HAS LED TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. DEWPOINTS HAVE
CLIMBED BACK TO AROUND 70 WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
DAY. SURFACE FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE BULK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MERGE INTO A LARGE MCS IN
SOUTH DAKOTA AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO
MINNESOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR SURFACE LOW TRACK.
THE SOUTHERN EDGE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN IOWA LATE IN THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL COMING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULK OF QG FORCING AND SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTH OF THE STATE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF IOWA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE WARM DURING THE NIGHT WITH READINGS REMAINING
IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS FOR THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO THIS WEEK. IT WILL START ACTIVE ON MONDAY AS A
MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CASTS OFF A
SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY.
GIVEN THE BROAD REGION OF ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THUS CATEGORICAL
POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS
MITIGATED BY THE FACT THAT THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE
DISPLACED FROM THE SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA...AND THAT
INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS LINGERING FROM MONDAY MORNING STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE DESTABILIZATION IS MOST LIKELY.

THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...STALLING ACROSS
MISSOURI WHILE A COOL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDES ACROSS MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN AND PROVIDES US WITH MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY OVERHEAD BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND/OR BRINGING THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MISSOURI BACK
UP ACROSS IOWA. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE
LOW.

BY FRIDAY MORNING A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ASHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR OUR REGION NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHEAST HIGH SHOULD SLIDE WESTWARD INTO THE
TEXARKANA AREA BY SATURDAY KEEPING THE WESTERN TROUGH FROM MAKING
ANY PROGRESS. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF PLACING US WITHIN OR
NEAR THE INFAMOUS RING OF FIRE...AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTED
FROM THE TROUGH OVER TOP THE RIDGE AND GENERATE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES PERIODICALLY MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE ABILITY OF
THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS TO DEPICT THE DETAILS OF THIS RESOLUTION
NEARLY A WEEK OUT IS DUBIOUS...BUT CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER EITHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA OR NEARBY...THUS GENERAL 20 TO 40 POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
UNTIL THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEAR. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH A
REASONABLE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IS THAT BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND WE SEE A RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH THIS WARM UP MAY BE PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED
BY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...06/06Z
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE THE PRIMARY AVIATION CONCERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SCT THUNDERSTORMS OVER WESTERN IA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA LIKELY WILL IMPACT KDSM/KFOD/KMCW LATER TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF STORMS LIKELY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING AS
A BOUNDARY SHIFTS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. THE BOUNDARY WILL
ALSO BRING A SWITCH TO NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT GUSTY WINDS IN
VICINITY OF STORMS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 052339
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
639 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS INTO THE STATE TODAY HAS LED TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. DEWPOINTS HAVE
CLIMBED BACK TO AROUND 70 WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
DAY. SURFACE FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE BULK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MERGE INTO A LARGE MCS IN
SOUTH DAKOTA AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO
MINNESOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR SURFACE LOW TRACK.
THE SOUTHERN EDGE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN IOWA LATE IN THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL COMING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULK OF QG FORCING AND SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTH OF THE STATE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF IOWA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE WARM DURING THE NIGHT WITH READINGS REMAINING
IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS FOR THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO THIS WEEK. IT WILL START ACTIVE ON MONDAY AS A
MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CASTS OFF A
SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY.
GIVEN THE BROAD REGION OF ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THUS CATEGORICAL
POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS
MITIGATED BY THE FACT THAT THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE
DISPLACED FROM THE SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA...AND THAT
INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS LINGERING FROM MONDAY MORNING STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE DESTABILIZATION IS MOST LIKELY.

THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...STALLING ACROSS
MISSOURI WHILE A COOL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDES ACROSS MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN AND PROVIDES US WITH MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY OVERHEAD BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND/OR BRINGING THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MISSOURI BACK
UP ACROSS IOWA. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE
LOW.

BY FRIDAY MORNING A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ASHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR OUR REGION NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHEAST HIGH SHOULD SLIDE WESTWARD INTO THE
TEXARKANA AREA BY SATURDAY KEEPING THE WESTERN TROUGH FROM MAKING
ANY PROGRESS. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF PLACING US WITHIN OR
NEAR THE INFAMOUS RING OF FIRE...AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTED
FROM THE TROUGH OVER TOP THE RIDGE AND GENERATE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES PERIODICALLY MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE ABILITY OF
THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS TO DEPICT THE DETAILS OF THIS RESOLUTION
NEARLY A WEEK OUT IS DUBIOUS...BUT CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER EITHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA OR NEARBY...THUS GENERAL 20 TO 40 POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
UNTIL THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEAR. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH A
REASONABLE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IS THAT BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND WE SEE A RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH THIS WARM UP MAY BE PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED
BY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...06/00Z
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO NW IA LATE WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH WRN SITES BY 12Z. BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
VFR WITH BOUNDARY PASSAGE. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
MID-DAY MONDAY SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 052339
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
639 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS INTO THE STATE TODAY HAS LED TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. DEWPOINTS HAVE
CLIMBED BACK TO AROUND 70 WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
DAY. SURFACE FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE BULK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MERGE INTO A LARGE MCS IN
SOUTH DAKOTA AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO
MINNESOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR SURFACE LOW TRACK.
THE SOUTHERN EDGE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN IOWA LATE IN THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL COMING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULK OF QG FORCING AND SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTH OF THE STATE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF IOWA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE WARM DURING THE NIGHT WITH READINGS REMAINING
IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS FOR THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO THIS WEEK. IT WILL START ACTIVE ON MONDAY AS A
MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CASTS OFF A
SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY.
GIVEN THE BROAD REGION OF ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THUS CATEGORICAL
POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS
MITIGATED BY THE FACT THAT THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE
DISPLACED FROM THE SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA...AND THAT
INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS LINGERING FROM MONDAY MORNING STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE DESTABILIZATION IS MOST LIKELY.

THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...STALLING ACROSS
MISSOURI WHILE A COOL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDES ACROSS MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN AND PROVIDES US WITH MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY OVERHEAD BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND/OR BRINGING THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MISSOURI BACK
UP ACROSS IOWA. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE
LOW.

BY FRIDAY MORNING A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ASHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR OUR REGION NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHEAST HIGH SHOULD SLIDE WESTWARD INTO THE
TEXARKANA AREA BY SATURDAY KEEPING THE WESTERN TROUGH FROM MAKING
ANY PROGRESS. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF PLACING US WITHIN OR
NEAR THE INFAMOUS RING OF FIRE...AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTED
FROM THE TROUGH OVER TOP THE RIDGE AND GENERATE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES PERIODICALLY MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE ABILITY OF
THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS TO DEPICT THE DETAILS OF THIS RESOLUTION
NEARLY A WEEK OUT IS DUBIOUS...BUT CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER EITHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA OR NEARBY...THUS GENERAL 20 TO 40 POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
UNTIL THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEAR. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH A
REASONABLE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IS THAT BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND WE SEE A RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH THIS WARM UP MAY BE PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED
BY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...06/00Z
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO NW IA LATE WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH WRN SITES BY 12Z. BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
VFR WITH BOUNDARY PASSAGE. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
MID-DAY MONDAY SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 052339
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
639 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS INTO THE STATE TODAY HAS LED TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. DEWPOINTS HAVE
CLIMBED BACK TO AROUND 70 WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
DAY. SURFACE FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE BULK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MERGE INTO A LARGE MCS IN
SOUTH DAKOTA AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO
MINNESOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR SURFACE LOW TRACK.
THE SOUTHERN EDGE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN IOWA LATE IN THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL COMING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULK OF QG FORCING AND SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTH OF THE STATE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF IOWA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE WARM DURING THE NIGHT WITH READINGS REMAINING
IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS FOR THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO THIS WEEK. IT WILL START ACTIVE ON MONDAY AS A
MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CASTS OFF A
SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY.
GIVEN THE BROAD REGION OF ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THUS CATEGORICAL
POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS
MITIGATED BY THE FACT THAT THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE
DISPLACED FROM THE SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA...AND THAT
INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS LINGERING FROM MONDAY MORNING STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE DESTABILIZATION IS MOST LIKELY.

THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...STALLING ACROSS
MISSOURI WHILE A COOL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDES ACROSS MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN AND PROVIDES US WITH MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY OVERHEAD BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND/OR BRINGING THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MISSOURI BACK
UP ACROSS IOWA. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE
LOW.

BY FRIDAY MORNING A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ASHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR OUR REGION NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHEAST HIGH SHOULD SLIDE WESTWARD INTO THE
TEXARKANA AREA BY SATURDAY KEEPING THE WESTERN TROUGH FROM MAKING
ANY PROGRESS. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF PLACING US WITHIN OR
NEAR THE INFAMOUS RING OF FIRE...AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTED
FROM THE TROUGH OVER TOP THE RIDGE AND GENERATE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES PERIODICALLY MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE ABILITY OF
THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS TO DEPICT THE DETAILS OF THIS RESOLUTION
NEARLY A WEEK OUT IS DUBIOUS...BUT CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER EITHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA OR NEARBY...THUS GENERAL 20 TO 40 POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
UNTIL THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEAR. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH A
REASONABLE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IS THAT BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND WE SEE A RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH THIS WARM UP MAY BE PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED
BY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...06/00Z
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO NW IA LATE WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH WRN SITES BY 12Z. BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
VFR WITH BOUNDARY PASSAGE. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
MID-DAY MONDAY SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 052339
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
639 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS INTO THE STATE TODAY HAS LED TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. DEWPOINTS HAVE
CLIMBED BACK TO AROUND 70 WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
DAY. SURFACE FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE BULK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MERGE INTO A LARGE MCS IN
SOUTH DAKOTA AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO
MINNESOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR SURFACE LOW TRACK.
THE SOUTHERN EDGE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN IOWA LATE IN THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL COMING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULK OF QG FORCING AND SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTH OF THE STATE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF IOWA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE WARM DURING THE NIGHT WITH READINGS REMAINING
IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS FOR THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO THIS WEEK. IT WILL START ACTIVE ON MONDAY AS A
MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CASTS OFF A
SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY.
GIVEN THE BROAD REGION OF ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THUS CATEGORICAL
POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS
MITIGATED BY THE FACT THAT THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE
DISPLACED FROM THE SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA...AND THAT
INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS LINGERING FROM MONDAY MORNING STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE DESTABILIZATION IS MOST LIKELY.

THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...STALLING ACROSS
MISSOURI WHILE A COOL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDES ACROSS MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN AND PROVIDES US WITH MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY OVERHEAD BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND/OR BRINGING THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MISSOURI BACK
UP ACROSS IOWA. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE
LOW.

BY FRIDAY MORNING A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ASHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR OUR REGION NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHEAST HIGH SHOULD SLIDE WESTWARD INTO THE
TEXARKANA AREA BY SATURDAY KEEPING THE WESTERN TROUGH FROM MAKING
ANY PROGRESS. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF PLACING US WITHIN OR
NEAR THE INFAMOUS RING OF FIRE...AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTED
FROM THE TROUGH OVER TOP THE RIDGE AND GENERATE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES PERIODICALLY MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE ABILITY OF
THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS TO DEPICT THE DETAILS OF THIS RESOLUTION
NEARLY A WEEK OUT IS DUBIOUS...BUT CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER EITHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA OR NEARBY...THUS GENERAL 20 TO 40 POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
UNTIL THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEAR. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH A
REASONABLE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IS THAT BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND WE SEE A RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH THIS WARM UP MAY BE PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED
BY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...06/00Z
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
INTO NW IA LATE WITH POTENTIAL TO REACH WRN SITES BY 12Z. BETTER
CHANCE OF STORMS AHEAD OF BOUNDARY BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. LIKELY
MVFR OR LOWER CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS FOLLOWED BY A RETURN TO
VFR WITH BOUNDARY PASSAGE. EXPECT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS THROUGH
MID-DAY MONDAY SWITCHING TO NORTHWEST WITH FROPA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 052027
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
327 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

STRENGTHENING SOUTH WINDS INTO THE STATE TODAY HAS LED TO WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE ADVECTION. DEWPOINTS HAVE
CLIMBED BACK TO AROUND 70 WITH RAPID DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE
DAY. SURFACE FRONT HAS DROPPED INTO SOUTH DAKOTA AND NORTHERN
MINNESOTA WHERE BULK OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
INDICATIONS ARE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MERGE INTO A LARGE MCS IN
SOUTH DAKOTA AS LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO
MINNESOTA DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS NEAR SURFACE LOW TRACK.
THE SOUTHERN EDGE WILL DROP INTO NORTHERN IOWA LATE IN THE NIGHT
WITH ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL COMING FROM LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. HOWEVER...WITH THE BULK OF QG FORCING AND SURFACE LOW
MOVING NORTH OF THE STATE...THE BEST COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF IOWA FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT. WITH GOOD LOW
LEVEL SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS...TEMPERATURES
SHOULD REMAIN QUITE WARM DURING THE NIGHT WITH READINGS REMAINING
IN THE 70S IN MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTATIONS FOR THE OVERALL
FORECAST SCENARIO THIS WEEK. IT WILL START ACTIVE ON MONDAY AS A
MID LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND CASTS OFF A
SURFACE FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA DURING THE DAY.
GIVEN THE BROAD REGION OF ASCENT ON THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THE
UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH A DESTABILIZING ATMOSPHERE AND LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THERE WILL BE
WIDESPREAD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL
ZONE PROGRESSING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST...THUS CATEGORICAL
POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT REMAINS
MITIGATED BY THE FACT THAT THE SUPPORTING UPPER DYNAMICS WILL BE
DISPLACED FROM THE SURFACE SYSTEM ACROSS OUR AREA...AND THAT
INSTABILITY MAY BE LIMITED DEPENDING ON THE AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS LINGERING FROM MONDAY MORNING STORMS. NEVERTHELESS...THERE
IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY ACROSS ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF OUR FORECAST AREA WHERE DESTABILIZATION IS MOST LIKELY.

THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ATTENDANT STORMS WILL PUSH SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING...STALLING ACROSS
MISSOURI WHILE A COOL HIGH PRESSURE AREA SLIDES ACROSS MINNESOTA
AND WISCONSIN AND PROVIDES US WITH MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER AND
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A 500 MB
SHORTWAVE WILL THEN MOVE SLOWLY OVERHEAD BETWEEN WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS AND/OR BRINGING THE OLD FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS MISSOURI BACK
UP ACROSS IOWA. EITHER WAY...CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
DURING THIS TIME FRAME THOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD BE
LOW.

BY FRIDAY MORNING A LARGE 500 MB TROUGH WILL HAVE MOVED ASHORE
OVER THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST...WHILE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. A
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING. THE BATTLE BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WILL DOMINATE THE FORECAST FOR OUR REGION NEXT
WEEKEND...AS THE SOUTHEAST HIGH SHOULD SLIDE WESTWARD INTO THE
TEXARKANA AREA BY SATURDAY KEEPING THE WESTERN TROUGH FROM MAKING
ANY PROGRESS. THIS WILL HAVE THE EFFECT OF PLACING US WITHIN OR
NEAR THE INFAMOUS RING OF FIRE...AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSES EJECTED
FROM THE TROUGH OVER TOP THE RIDGE AND GENERATE THUNDERSTORM
COMPLEXES PERIODICALLY MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST. THE ABILITY OF
THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS TO DEPICT THE DETAILS OF THIS RESOLUTION
NEARLY A WEEK OUT IS DUBIOUS...BUT CERTAINLY THERE WILL BE CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE WEATHER EITHER ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA OR NEARBY...THUS GENERAL 20 TO 40 POPS HAVE BEEN MAINTAINED
UNTIL THESE DETAILS BECOME CLEAR. WHAT CAN BE SAID WITH A
REASONABLE DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE IS THAT BY THE END OF THIS WEEK
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NOTICEABLY WARMER AS THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDS TO THE SOUTH AND WE SEE A RETURN OF SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST LOW
LEVEL FLOW...THOUGH THIS WARM UP MAY BE PERIODICALLY INTERRUPTED
BY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

&&

.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE. ANY CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 12KFT WITH SOUTH SURFACE WINDS STATEWIDE.
TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN IOWA AND SINK GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. KFOD AND KMCW HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING
THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 051741
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ESE TODAY BECOMING
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SD/NE BY LATE TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF IT WITH THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS
IOWA. THIS WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAA
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO HOLD ON FOR TODAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ALOFT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CORN BELT. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED NEAR
2 INCHES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
ALONG THIS FRONT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL IOWA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
AND EXIT SOUTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS
PROG 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRINGING A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID
INSTABILITY WITH MODELS DEPICTING MU CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL
RISK. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE REALIZED WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
MATERIALIZE WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACK OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

MID WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST BRINGING THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO IOWA AND A WARMING TREND. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES MOVING
UP AND OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CORN BELT WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE. ANY CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 12KFT WITH SOUTH SURFACE WINDS STATEWIDE.
TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN IOWA AND SINK GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. KFOD AND KMCW HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING
THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 051741
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ESE TODAY BECOMING
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SD/NE BY LATE TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF IT WITH THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS
IOWA. THIS WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAA
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO HOLD ON FOR TODAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ALOFT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CORN BELT. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED NEAR
2 INCHES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
ALONG THIS FRONT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL IOWA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
AND EXIT SOUTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS
PROG 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRINGING A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID
INSTABILITY WITH MODELS DEPICTING MU CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL
RISK. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE REALIZED WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
MATERIALIZE WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACK OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

MID WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST BRINGING THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO IOWA AND A WARMING TREND. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES MOVING
UP AND OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CORN BELT WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE. ANY CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 12KFT WITH SOUTH SURFACE WINDS STATEWIDE.
TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN IOWA AND SINK GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. KFOD AND KMCW HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING
THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 051741
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ESE TODAY BECOMING
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SD/NE BY LATE TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF IT WITH THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS
IOWA. THIS WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAA
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO HOLD ON FOR TODAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ALOFT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CORN BELT. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED NEAR
2 INCHES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
ALONG THIS FRONT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL IOWA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
AND EXIT SOUTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS
PROG 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRINGING A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID
INSTABILITY WITH MODELS DEPICTING MU CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL
RISK. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE REALIZED WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
MATERIALIZE WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACK OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

MID WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST BRINGING THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO IOWA AND A WARMING TREND. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES MOVING
UP AND OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CORN BELT WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE. ANY CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 12KFT WITH SOUTH SURFACE WINDS STATEWIDE.
TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN IOWA AND SINK GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. KFOD AND KMCW HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING
THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 051741
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ESE TODAY BECOMING
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SD/NE BY LATE TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF IT WITH THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS
IOWA. THIS WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAA
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO HOLD ON FOR TODAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ALOFT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CORN BELT. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED NEAR
2 INCHES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
ALONG THIS FRONT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL IOWA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
AND EXIT SOUTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS
PROG 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRINGING A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID
INSTABILITY WITH MODELS DEPICTING MU CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL
RISK. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE REALIZED WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
MATERIALIZE WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACK OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

MID WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST BRINGING THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO IOWA AND A WARMING TREND. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES MOVING
UP AND OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CORN BELT WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...05/18Z
ISSUED AT 1241 PM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT AS BOUNDARY DRIFTS TOWARD THE STATE. ANY CEILINGS WILL
REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 12KFT WITH SOUTH SURFACE WINDS STATEWIDE.
TOWARD DAYBREAK ON MONDAY...CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
NORTHERN IOWA AND SINK GRADUALLY SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE END OF THE
PERIOD. KFOD AND KMCW HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING
THUNDERSTORMS PRIOR TO THE END OF THE PERIOD. ELSEWHERE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 051153
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ESE TODAY BECOMING
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SD/NE BY LATE TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF IT WITH THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS
IOWA. THIS WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAA
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO HOLD ON FOR TODAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ALOFT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CORN BELT. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED NEAR
2 INCHES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
ALONG THIS FRONT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL IOWA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
AND EXIT SOUTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS
PROG 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRINGING A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID
INSTABILITY WITH MODELS DEPICTING MU CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL
RISK. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE REALIZED WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
MATERIALIZE WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACK OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

MID WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST BRINGING THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO IOWA AND A WARMING TREND. ISENTROPICUPGLIDE
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES MOVING
UP AND OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CORN BELT WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...05/12Z
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY
MAY HAVE A BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION AT KOTM WITH LIGHT FOG...OTHERWISE
CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED WITH VCSH AT KFOD AND KMCW.
BEST CHANCES FOR THE OTHER STATIONS WILL BE BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND THEN LOSE THE GUSTINESS THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT UP
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 051153
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ESE TODAY BECOMING
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SD/NE BY LATE TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF IT WITH THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS
IOWA. THIS WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAA
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO HOLD ON FOR TODAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ALOFT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CORN BELT. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED NEAR
2 INCHES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
ALONG THIS FRONT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL IOWA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
AND EXIT SOUTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS
PROG 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRINGING A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID
INSTABILITY WITH MODELS DEPICTING MU CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL
RISK. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE REALIZED WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
MATERIALIZE WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACK OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

MID WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST BRINGING THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO IOWA AND A WARMING TREND. ISENTROPICUPGLIDE
WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES MOVING
UP AND OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CORN BELT WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...05/12Z
ISSUED AT 653 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PERIOD. INITIALLY
MAY HAVE A BRIEF VSBY REDUCTION AT KOTM WITH LIGHT FOG...OTHERWISE
CLOUDS TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH
PUSH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION. HAVE HIGHLIGHTED WITH VCSH AT KFOD AND KMCW.
BEST CHANCES FOR THE OTHER STATIONS WILL BE BEYOND THE CURRENT
FORECAST PERIOD. SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY
AND THEN LOSE THE GUSTINESS THIS EVENING...BUT REMAIN SOMEWHAT UP
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 050840
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ESE TODAY BECOMING
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SD/NE BY LATE TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF IT WITH THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS
IOWA. THIS WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAA
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO HOLD ON FOR TODAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ALOFT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CORN BELT. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED NEAR
2 INCHES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
ALONG THIS FRONT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL IOWA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
AND EXIT SOUTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS
PROG 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRINGING A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID
INSTABILITY WITH MODELS DEPICTING MU CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL
RISK. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE REALIZED WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
MATERIALIZE WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACK OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

MID WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST BRINGING THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO IOWA AND A WARMING TREND. ISCENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES MOVING
UP AND OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CORN BELT WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING BREEZY ON SUNDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 050840
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ESE TODAY BECOMING
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SD/NE BY LATE TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF IT WITH THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS
IOWA. THIS WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAA
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO HOLD ON FOR TODAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ALOFT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CORN BELT. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED NEAR
2 INCHES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
ALONG THIS FRONT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL IOWA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
AND EXIT SOUTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS
PROG 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRINGING A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID
INSTABILITY WITH MODELS DEPICTING MU CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL
RISK. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE REALIZED WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
MATERIALIZE WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACK OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

MID WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST BRINGING THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO IOWA AND A WARMING TREND. ISCENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES MOVING
UP AND OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CORN BELT WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING BREEZY ON SUNDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 050840
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
340 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHING THE REGION CENTERED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SHIFT ESE TODAY BECOMING
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SD/NE BY LATE TODAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF IT WITH THE SFC PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS
IOWA. THIS WILL CREATE BREEZY CONDITIONS BY THIS AFTERNOON...AND WAA
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO PUSH INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY. AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS DEVELOPED OFF TO THE
NORTHWEST OF THE CWA...WITH THE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH
EAST AND DIMINISH THROUGH SUNRISE. THEREFORE EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
TO HOLD ON FOR TODAY...WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ALOFT AS WELL.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL DRIVE A SURFACE COLD FRONT
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CORN BELT. THIS FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH A
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES PROGGED NEAR
2 INCHES. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND
ALONG THIS FRONT AS THE FRONT APPROACHES NORTH CENTRAL IOWA EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE
AND EXIT SOUTHEAST IOWA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. FORECAST MODELS
PROG 0-3 KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 35 TO 45 KNOTS BRINGING A RISK FOR
DAMAGING WINDS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DAYTIME HEATING WILL AID
INSTABILITY WITH MODELS DEPICTING MU CAPE NEAR 2000 J/KG MONDAY
AFTERNOON. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL
RISK. HEAVY RAIN WILL BE REALIZED WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS
MATERIALIZE WITH LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE DUE TO HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND WHERE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACK OVER THE
SAME LOCATIONS.

BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE MIDWEST BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO
THE REGION. HIGH TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE 10 TO
15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF THE
YEAR.

MID WEEK THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BUILD TO THE EAST BRINGING THE
RETURN OF SOUTHERLY FLOW TO IOWA AND A WARMING TREND. ISCENTROPIC
UPGLIDE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA.

THERE IS GENERAL AGREEMENT BETWEEN FORECAST MODELS OF AN UPPER
RIDGE STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SHORTWAVES MOVING
UP AND OVER THE RIDGE THROUGH THE CORN BELT WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING BREEZY ON SUNDAY.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 050448
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1148 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN INTO THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES WITH LIGHT
FLOW OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BUT WELL
NORTH OF IOWA OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN NEBRASKA IN AXIS OF STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT
BUT THIS TOO WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE. IN GENERAL...QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COOL
READINGS. SOME SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVERHEAD BUT
WITH GENERALLY MINIMAL IMPACT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE RELATIVELY
COOL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT 500
MB...THE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD TODAY WILL DEPART BY SUNDAY
LEAVING MORE OF A WEAK NEUTRAL FLOW...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
SLOWLY DIPPING FROM CANADA DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND
MOVING OVER THE DAKOTAS BY SUNRISE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS
WILL RESULT IN BENIGN AND WARM WEATHER ON SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. ON SUNDAY
NIGHT A COOL FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL THEN
APPROACH IOWA FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND CROSS THE STATE AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR
FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND AMBIENT
SHEAR TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA DURING PEAK HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS THREAT IS WELL OUTLINED IN SPC OUTLOOKS.

IN WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH...BROADLY ZONAL 500 MB FLOW WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF FROM AT LEAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COOL SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND MAKE FOR GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY THAT CROSSED OUR AREA ON MONDAY
WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS MISSOURI AND MAY DRIFT UP TO AFFECT FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA AT TIMES. ALSO...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE 500 MB FLOW AND OVER OUR
AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW POPS...BUT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED SO COVERAGE AND ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A 500 MB TROUGH ALONG THE
PACIFIC U.S. COAST AND A WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PANHANDLES. IF THIS PANS OUT
IS COULD PLACE US ON THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE DREADED RING OF
FIRE...AS IMPULSES EJECTED OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH OVERTOP THE
RIDGE AND GENERATE PERIODIC CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. OF COURSE AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT SUCH A SCENARIO IS
CERTAINLY REALISTIC AND FOR NOW JUSTIFIES A RETURN OF CHANCE POPS
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING BREEZY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 050448
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1148 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN INTO THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES WITH LIGHT
FLOW OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BUT WELL
NORTH OF IOWA OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN NEBRASKA IN AXIS OF STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT
BUT THIS TOO WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE. IN GENERAL...QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COOL
READINGS. SOME SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVERHEAD BUT
WITH GENERALLY MINIMAL IMPACT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE RELATIVELY
COOL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT 500
MB...THE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD TODAY WILL DEPART BY SUNDAY
LEAVING MORE OF A WEAK NEUTRAL FLOW...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
SLOWLY DIPPING FROM CANADA DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND
MOVING OVER THE DAKOTAS BY SUNRISE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS
WILL RESULT IN BENIGN AND WARM WEATHER ON SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. ON SUNDAY
NIGHT A COOL FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL THEN
APPROACH IOWA FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND CROSS THE STATE AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR
FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND AMBIENT
SHEAR TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA DURING PEAK HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS THREAT IS WELL OUTLINED IN SPC OUTLOOKS.

IN WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH...BROADLY ZONAL 500 MB FLOW WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF FROM AT LEAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COOL SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND MAKE FOR GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY THAT CROSSED OUR AREA ON MONDAY
WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS MISSOURI AND MAY DRIFT UP TO AFFECT FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA AT TIMES. ALSO...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE 500 MB FLOW AND OVER OUR
AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW POPS...BUT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED SO COVERAGE AND ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A 500 MB TROUGH ALONG THE
PACIFIC U.S. COAST AND A WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PANHANDLES. IF THIS PANS OUT
IS COULD PLACE US ON THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE DREADED RING OF
FIRE...AS IMPULSES EJECTED OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH OVERTOP THE
RIDGE AND GENERATE PERIODIC CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. OF COURSE AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT SUCH A SCENARIO IS
CERTAINLY REALISTIC AND FOR NOW JUSTIFIES A RETURN OF CHANCE POPS
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...05/06Z
ISSUED AT 1148 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT WITH SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT BY THE AFTERNOON. LIGHT
SOUTH WINDS OVERNIGHT BECOMING BREEZY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 042253
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
553 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN INTO THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES WITH LIGHT
FLOW OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BUT WELL
NORTH OF IOWA OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN NEBRASKA IN AXIS OF STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT
BUT THIS TOO WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE. IN GENERAL...QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COOL
READINGS. SOME SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVERHEAD BUT
WITH GENERALLY MINIMAL IMPACT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE RELATIVELY
COOL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT 500
MB...THE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD TODAY WILL DEPART BY SUNDAY
LEAVING MORE OF A WEAK NEUTRAL FLOW...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
SLOWLY DIPPING FROM CANADA DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND
MOVING OVER THE DAKOTAS BY SUNRISE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS
WILL RESULT IN BENIGN AND WARM WEATHER ON SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. ON SUNDAY
NIGHT A COOL FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL THEN
APPROACH IOWA FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND CROSS THE STATE AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR
FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND AMBIENT
SHEAR TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA DURING PEAK HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS THREAT IS WELL OUTLINED IN SPC OUTLOOKS.

IN WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH...BROADLY ZONAL 500 MB FLOW WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF FROM AT LEAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COOL SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND MAKE FOR GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY THAT CROSSED OUR AREA ON MONDAY
WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS MISSOURI AND MAY DRIFT UP TO AFFECT FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA AT TIMES. ALSO...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE 500 MB FLOW AND OVER OUR
AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW POPS...BUT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED SO COVERAGE AND ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A 500 MB TROUGH ALONG THE
PACIFIC U.S. COAST AND A WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PANHANDLES. IF THIS PANS OUT
IS COULD PLACE US ON THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE DREADED RING OF
FIRE...AS IMPULSES EJECTED OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH OVERTOP THE
RIDGE AND GENERATE PERIODIC CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. OF COURSE AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT SUCH A SCENARIO IS
CERTAINLY REALISTIC AND FOR NOW JUSTIFIES A RETURN OF CHANCE POPS
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...04/00Z
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH CIRRUS PASSING THROUGH OVERNIGHT. POSSIBLE FOR SCT
CUMULUS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING
BREEZY MID TO LATE SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 042019
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
319 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN INTO THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES WITH LIGHT
FLOW OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BUT WELL
NORTH OF IOWA OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN NEBRASKA IN AXIS OF STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT
BUT THIS TOO WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE. IN GENERAL...QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COOL
READINGS. SOME SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVERHEAD BUT
WITH GENERALLY MINIMAL IMPACT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE RELATIVELY
COOL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT 500
MB...THE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD TODAY WILL DEPART BY SUNDAY
LEAVING MORE OF A WEAK NEUTRAL FLOW...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
SLOWLY DIPPING FROM CANADA DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND
MOVING OVER THE DAKOTAS BY SUNRISE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS
WILL RESULT IN BENIGN AND WARM WEATHER ON SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. ON SUNDAY
NIGHT A COOL FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL THEN
APPROACH IOWA FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND CROSS THE STATE AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR
FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND AMBIENT
SHEAR TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA DURING PEAK HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS THREAT IS WELL OUTLINED IN SPC OUTLOOKS.

IN WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH...BROADLY ZONAL 500 MB FLOW WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF FROM AT LEAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COOL SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND MAKE FOR GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY THAT CROSSED OUR AREA ON MONDAY
WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS MISSOURI AND MAY DRIFT UP TO AFFECT FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA AT TIMES. ALSO...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE 500 MB FLOW AND OVER OUR
AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW POPS...BUT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED SO COVERAGE AND ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A 500 MB TROUGH ALONG THE
PACIFIC U.S. COAST AND A WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PANHANDLES. IF THIS PANS OUT
IS COULD PLACE US ON THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE DREADED RING OF
FIRE...AS IMPULSES EJECTED OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH OVERTOP THE
RIDGE AND GENERATE PERIODIC CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. OF COURSE AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT SUCH A SCENARIO IS
CERTAINLY REALISTIC AND FOR NOW JUSTIFIES A RETURN OF CHANCE POPS
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST. ONLY ISSUE MAY BE POSSIBLE RESTRICTION TO
VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE/HAZE LAYER OVER STATE PRODUCED BY FOREST
FIRES TO THE NORTHWEST AND ADVECTED INTO IOWA.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS SURFACE
RIDGE PULLS AWAY FROM THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 042019
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
319 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

SURFACE RIDGE CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AS WARM ADVECTION INTENSIFIES. THE
WINDS WILL WEAKEN INTO THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES WITH LIGHT
FLOW OVERNIGHT. SYSTEM ENTERING THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA BUT WELL
NORTH OF IOWA OVERNIGHT. SOME ADDITIONAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN NEBRASKA IN AXIS OF STRONG LLJ OVERNIGHT
BUT THIS TOO WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE STATE. IN GENERAL...QUIET
WEATHER IS EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT WITH SEASONABLY COOL
READINGS. SOME SMOKE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT OVERHEAD BUT
WITH GENERALLY MINIMAL IMPACT.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

ACTIVE WEATHER WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...FOLLOWED BY MORE RELATIVELY
COOL AND QUIET WEATHER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. AT 500
MB...THE RIDGING MOVING OVERHEAD TODAY WILL DEPART BY SUNDAY
LEAVING MORE OF A WEAK NEUTRAL FLOW...WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH
SLOWLY DIPPING FROM CANADA DOWN INTO THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES AND
MOVING OVER THE DAKOTAS BY SUNRISE MONDAY. AT THE SURFACE THIS
WILL RESULT IN BENIGN AND WARM WEATHER ON SUNDAY...WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
RISE INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH INCREASING HUMIDITY. ON SUNDAY
NIGHT A COOL FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE 500 MB TROUGH WILL THEN
APPROACH IOWA FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND CROSS THE STATE AS THE
TROUGH MOVES OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR
FORECAST AREA MOST OF THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE
MOVING OFF TO THE NORTH OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY OVER
MINNESOTA...HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND AMBIENT
SHEAR TO SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
ABOUT THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF OUR AREA DURING PEAK HEATING MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THIS THREAT IS WELL OUTLINED IN SPC OUTLOOKS.

IN WAKE OF THE EARLY WEEK TROUGH...BROADLY ZONAL 500 MB FLOW WILL
REESTABLISH ITSELF FROM AT LEAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS
WILL ALLOW A COOL SURFACE HIGH MOVING IN BEHIND THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND MAKE FOR GENERALLY QUIET
WEATHER. HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY THAT CROSSED OUR AREA ON MONDAY
WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS MISSOURI AND MAY DRIFT UP TO AFFECT FAR
SOUTHERN IOWA AT TIMES. ALSO...THERE IS CONSENSUS THAT A WEAKER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE 500 MB FLOW AND OVER OUR
AREA AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SUPPORTING LOW POPS...BUT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD BE LIMITED SO COVERAGE AND ANY IMPACTS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL.

LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND...THE GFS AND
EC ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN BUILDING A 500 MB TROUGH ALONG THE
PACIFIC U.S. COAST AND A WARM HIGH PRESSURE BUBBLE DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND PANHANDLES. IF THIS PANS OUT
IS COULD PLACE US ON THE NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE DREADED RING OF
FIRE...AS IMPULSES EJECTED OUT OF THE WESTERN TROUGH OVERTOP THE
RIDGE AND GENERATE PERIODIC CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS THAT WOULD THEN
MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS IOWA. OF COURSE AT THIS RANGE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH...BUT SUCH A SCENARIO IS
CERTAINLY REALISTIC AND FOR NOW JUSTIFIES A RETURN OF CHANCE POPS
TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST. ONLY ISSUE MAY BE POSSIBLE RESTRICTION TO
VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE/HAZE LAYER OVER STATE PRODUCED BY FOREST
FIRES TO THE NORTHWEST AND ADVECTED INTO IOWA.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS SURFACE
RIDGE PULLS AWAY FROM THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 041732
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN THE AREA TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY...BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO STILL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WITH WEAK WAA SO SHOULD SEE
WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECTING SOME
OF THE SMOKE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA IN THE HIGHER LEVELS MAY
CREATE SOME HAZE AND AGAIN COULD IMPACT MAX TEMPS A BIT. SOME AREAS
TO THE NORTH HAD SOME OF THE SMOKE MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE
CREATING LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...AND
COULD PUSH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
LATE TODAY WHICH COULD BRING VISIBILITIES INTO THE 2 TO 5 MILE
RANGE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A SOUTH WIND NEAR 5 MPH AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. SUNSET TONIGHT IS AT 852 PM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF IOWA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WILL SHARPEN AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING. AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S AIDED BY COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING.

THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS PROG PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMATOLOGY. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE A RISK PARTICULARLY WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED
NEAR THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREAS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS AND MU CAPE NEAR
2000 J/KG. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL RISK
WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE REALIZED. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS
EAST. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER IOWA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CORN BELT.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST. ONLY ISSUE MAY BE POSSIBLE RESTRICTION TO
VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE/HAZE LAYER OVER STATE PRODUCED BY FOREST
FIRES TO THE NORTHWEST AND ADVECTED INTO THE STATE.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS SURFACE
RIDGE PULLS AWAY FROM THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...COGIL




000
FXUS63 KDMX 041732
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1232 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN THE AREA TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY...BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO STILL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WITH WEAK WAA SO SHOULD SEE
WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECTING SOME
OF THE SMOKE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA IN THE HIGHER LEVELS MAY
CREATE SOME HAZE AND AGAIN COULD IMPACT MAX TEMPS A BIT. SOME AREAS
TO THE NORTH HAD SOME OF THE SMOKE MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE
CREATING LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...AND
COULD PUSH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
LATE TODAY WHICH COULD BRING VISIBILITIES INTO THE 2 TO 5 MILE
RANGE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A SOUTH WIND NEAR 5 MPH AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. SUNSET TONIGHT IS AT 852 PM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF IOWA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WILL SHARPEN AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING. AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S AIDED BY COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING.

THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS PROG PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMATOLOGY. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE A RISK PARTICULARLY WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED
NEAR THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREAS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS AND MU CAPE NEAR
2000 J/KG. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL RISK
WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE REALIZED. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS
EAST. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER IOWA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CORN BELT.

&&

.AVIATION...04/18Z
ISSUED AT 1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE DURATION
OF THE FORECAST. ONLY ISSUE MAY BE POSSIBLE RESTRICTION TO
VISIBILITY FROM SMOKE/HAZE LAYER OVER STATE PRODUCED BY FOREST
FIRES TO THE NORTHWEST AND ADVECTED INTO THE STATE.
OTHERWISE...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTH AS SURFACE
RIDGE PULLS AWAY FROM THE STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 041133
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
633 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN THE AREA TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY...BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO STILL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WITH WEAK WAA SO SHOULD SEE
WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECTING SOME
OF THE SMOKE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA IN THE HIGHER LEVELS MAY
CREATE SOME HAZE AND AGAIN COULD IMPACT MAX TEMPS A BIT. SOME AREAS
TO THE NORTH HAD SOME OF THE SMOKE MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE
CREATING LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...AND
COULD PUSH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
LATE TODAY WHICH COULD BRING VISIBILITIES INTO THE 2 TO 5 MILE
RANGE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A SOUTH WIND NEAR 5 MPH AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. SUNSET TONIGHT IS AT 852 PM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF IOWA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WILL SHARPEN AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING. AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S AIDED BY COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING.

THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS PROG PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMATOLOGY. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE A RISK PARTICULARLY WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED
NEAR THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREAS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS AND MU CAPE NEAR
2000 J/KG. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL RISK
WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE REALIZED. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS
EAST. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER IOWA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CORN BELT.

&&

.AVIATION...04/12Z
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
MAY HAVE A SCT LOW VFR CU DECK THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONCERN OVER SOME HAZE AND POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM SMOKE
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ESPECIALLY
GIVEN WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY...SO HAVE LEFT AT P6SM FOR NOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 041133
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
633 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN THE AREA TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY...BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO STILL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WITH WEAK WAA SO SHOULD SEE
WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECTING SOME
OF THE SMOKE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA IN THE HIGHER LEVELS MAY
CREATE SOME HAZE AND AGAIN COULD IMPACT MAX TEMPS A BIT. SOME AREAS
TO THE NORTH HAD SOME OF THE SMOKE MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE
CREATING LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...AND
COULD PUSH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
LATE TODAY WHICH COULD BRING VISIBILITIES INTO THE 2 TO 5 MILE
RANGE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A SOUTH WIND NEAR 5 MPH AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. SUNSET TONIGHT IS AT 852 PM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF IOWA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WILL SHARPEN AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING. AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S AIDED BY COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING.

THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS PROG PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMATOLOGY. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE A RISK PARTICULARLY WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED
NEAR THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREAS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS AND MU CAPE NEAR
2000 J/KG. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL RISK
WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE REALIZED. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS
EAST. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER IOWA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CORN BELT.

&&

.AVIATION...04/12Z
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF FORECAST PERIOD.
MAY HAVE A SCT LOW VFR CU DECK THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SHIFT
AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CONCERN OVER SOME HAZE AND POSSIBLE VSBY REDUCTIONS FROM SMOKE
MAKING ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH TODAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT IT WILL MAKE IT INTO THE CWA ESPECIALLY
GIVEN WINDS TURNING MORE SOUTHERLY...SO HAVE LEFT AT P6SM FOR NOW.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 040837
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN THE AREA TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY...BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO STILL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WITH WEAK WAA SO SHOULD SEE
WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECTING SOME
OF THE SMOKE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA IN THE HIGHER LEVELS MAY
CREATE SOME HAZE AND AGAIN COULD IMPACT MAX TEMPS A BIT. SOME AREAS
TO THE NORTH HAD SOME OF THE SMOKE MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE
CREATING LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...AND
COULD PUSH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
LATE TODAY WHICH COULD BRING VISIBILITIES INTO THE 2 TO 5 MILE
RANGE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A SOUTH WIND NEAR 5 MPH AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. SUNSET TONIGHT IS AT 852 PM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF IOWA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WILL SHARPEN AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING. AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S AIDED BY COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING.

THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS PROG PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMATOLOGY. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE A RISK PARTICULARLY WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED
NEAR THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREAS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS AND MU CAPE NEAR
2000 J/KG. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL RISK
WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE REALIZED. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS
EAST. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER IOWA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CORN BELT.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

POSSIBLE PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SMOKE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF IOWA.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 040837
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
337 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

HIGH PRESSURE STILL IN THE AREA TO PUSH OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TODAY.
A WEAK UPPER LEVEL WAVE TO PUSH INTO THE REGION LATE TODAY...BUT
LITTLE MOISTURE WITH IT SO STILL EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS TO
SHIFT AROUND TO THE SOUTHWEST ALOFT...WITH WEAK WAA SO SHOULD SEE
WARMER TEMPS TODAY THAN IN THE PAST FEW DAYS. STILL EXPECTING SOME
OF THE SMOKE TO WORK ITS WAY INTO THE AREA IN THE HIGHER LEVELS MAY
CREATE SOME HAZE AND AGAIN COULD IMPACT MAX TEMPS A BIT. SOME AREAS
TO THE NORTH HAD SOME OF THE SMOKE MAKE ITS WAY TO THE SURFACE
CREATING LOWERED VISIBILITIES AND AIR QUALITY CONDITIONS. THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TODAY...AND
COULD PUSH INTO EXTREME NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA BY
LATE TODAY WHICH COULD BRING VISIBILITIES INTO THE 2 TO 5 MILE
RANGE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 247 AM CDT SAT JUL 4 2015

FOR THE 4TH OF JULY ACTIVITIES TONIGHT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...A SOUTH WIND NEAR 5 MPH AND
COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES. SUNSET TONIGHT IS AT 852 PM.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST OF IOWA TONIGHT. SHORTWAVE
ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE MAIN WESTERLIES WILL SHARPEN AN UPPER
TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CANADA. IN RESPONSE TO HEIGHT FALLS
ALOFT...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN IN THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW INCREASING. AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD
FRONT...HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO THE 80S AIDED BY COMPRESSIONAL
WARMING.

THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST MODELS PROG PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES WHICH IS OVER 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMATOLOGY. HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLOODING
WILL BE A RISK PARTICULARLY WHERE MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS MAXIMIZED
NEAR THE LOW LEVEL JET AND SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OVER THE
SAME AREAS. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS WITH 0-3KM BULK SHEAR NEAR 40 KTS AND MU CAPE NEAR
2000 J/KG. LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL HAIL RISK
WHERE STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE REALIZED. PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE MONDAY NIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE MIDWEST ON TUESDAY
BRINGING A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS TO THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF THE YEAR.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS TO THE STATE WEDNESDAY AS THE HIGH BUILDS
EAST. WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL
BRING CHANCES FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BE BUILDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE
IN THE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER IOWA. SHORTWAVES
ROUNDING THE RIDGE WILL AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TRACKING SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE CORN BELT.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

POSSIBLE PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SMOKE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF IOWA.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...ANGLE
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 040441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WEATHER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MAIN CONCERN BECOMING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN COOL WELL OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WAA BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO THE NORTH HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE. IN
ADDITION...SMOKE FROM NORTHERN WILD FIRES MAY PUSH INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY. SAW
SOME ARES OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT FOR THE EARLY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION SUN NIGHT INTO
MON NIGHT. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PUSH OUT CURRENT OH VALLEY
TROUGH WITH MATURING BROAD CANADIAN TROUGH DRIVING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIAL STORY WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCES
FROM CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE FOR THE FOURTH HOWEVER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THIS SMOKE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MN WITH RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO SEVERAL MILES TIMES AT
TIMES. DO NOT FEEL CONDITIONS WILL BE THAT POOR TOMORROW...BUT
NOAA AIR QUALITY MODELS DO INDICATE VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE
CONCENTRATIONS INCREASE SAT. THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPS BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE WHICH IS LIKELY TOO HIGH DUE TO SMOKE AND CLIMO
INFLUENCES. SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY PUSH SMOKE
EASTWARD BY SUN HOWEVER. RELATIVELY MOIST GROUND SHOULD STILL
KEEP TEMPS GETTING TO GUIDANCE HOWEVER SO HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
JUST BELOW THOSE VALUES. RECENT BIASES HAVE BEEN ON THE WARM SIDE
TOO.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE NW-SE LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT
HOWEVER. LOBE OF DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE SIOUXLAND
AREA SUN NIGHT.  PEAK HEATING GENESIS WILL LIKELY BE WELL REMOVED
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
IN AN AIRMASS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MCS
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING
MON WITH FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY LIMIT THINGS SOMEWHAT...BOTH GFS AND
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW UNCAPPED MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1800-4000 J/KG
IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHER NAM VALUES ARE LIKELY
OVERDONE...DRIVEN BY MID 70 DEWPOINTS...BUT EVEN THE LESS
AGGRESSIVE GFS WOULD SUGGEST UNCAPPED DEVELOPMENT. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP SHEAR HOWEVER WITH VALUES 30KTS OR
LESS IN UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES. THUS EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO
BE LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN WITH NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES AND PWATS WELL THROUGH THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND
PUSHING EXTREMES AT TIMES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALSO DEPICT WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 13.5K FT. SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS. PRECIP MAY LINGER SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NIGHT BUT EXIT BY TUESDAY.

NEXT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INTO DAYS 6 AND 7 AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
DRIFT THROUGH WEAK FLOW.  POPS ARE LOW AT THIS POINT AS DETAILS
DIFFICULT TO COME BY.  ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MS VALLEY
TROUGH DRIVING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE GFS IS WEAKER
RESULTING IN FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER NORTH AND POSSIBLY GETTING
CONVECTION AS FAR NORTH AS IA.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

POSSIBLE PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SMOKE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF IOWA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 040441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WEATHER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MAIN CONCERN BECOMING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN COOL WELL OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WAA BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO THE NORTH HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE. IN
ADDITION...SMOKE FROM NORTHERN WILD FIRES MAY PUSH INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY. SAW
SOME ARES OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT FOR THE EARLY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION SUN NIGHT INTO
MON NIGHT. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PUSH OUT CURRENT OH VALLEY
TROUGH WITH MATURING BROAD CANADIAN TROUGH DRIVING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIAL STORY WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCES
FROM CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE FOR THE FOURTH HOWEVER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THIS SMOKE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MN WITH RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO SEVERAL MILES TIMES AT
TIMES. DO NOT FEEL CONDITIONS WILL BE THAT POOR TOMORROW...BUT
NOAA AIR QUALITY MODELS DO INDICATE VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE
CONCENTRATIONS INCREASE SAT. THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPS BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE WHICH IS LIKELY TOO HIGH DUE TO SMOKE AND CLIMO
INFLUENCES. SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY PUSH SMOKE
EASTWARD BY SUN HOWEVER. RELATIVELY MOIST GROUND SHOULD STILL
KEEP TEMPS GETTING TO GUIDANCE HOWEVER SO HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
JUST BELOW THOSE VALUES. RECENT BIASES HAVE BEEN ON THE WARM SIDE
TOO.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE NW-SE LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT
HOWEVER. LOBE OF DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE SIOUXLAND
AREA SUN NIGHT.  PEAK HEATING GENESIS WILL LIKELY BE WELL REMOVED
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
IN AN AIRMASS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MCS
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING
MON WITH FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY LIMIT THINGS SOMEWHAT...BOTH GFS AND
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW UNCAPPED MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1800-4000 J/KG
IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHER NAM VALUES ARE LIKELY
OVERDONE...DRIVEN BY MID 70 DEWPOINTS...BUT EVEN THE LESS
AGGRESSIVE GFS WOULD SUGGEST UNCAPPED DEVELOPMENT. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP SHEAR HOWEVER WITH VALUES 30KTS OR
LESS IN UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES. THUS EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO
BE LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN WITH NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES AND PWATS WELL THROUGH THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND
PUSHING EXTREMES AT TIMES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALSO DEPICT WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 13.5K FT. SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS. PRECIP MAY LINGER SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NIGHT BUT EXIT BY TUESDAY.

NEXT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INTO DAYS 6 AND 7 AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
DRIFT THROUGH WEAK FLOW.  POPS ARE LOW AT THIS POINT AS DETAILS
DIFFICULT TO COME BY.  ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MS VALLEY
TROUGH DRIVING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE GFS IS WEAKER
RESULTING IN FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER NORTH AND POSSIBLY GETTING
CONVECTION AS FAR NORTH AS IA.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

POSSIBLE PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SMOKE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF IOWA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 040441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WEATHER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MAIN CONCERN BECOMING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN COOL WELL OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WAA BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO THE NORTH HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE. IN
ADDITION...SMOKE FROM NORTHERN WILD FIRES MAY PUSH INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY. SAW
SOME ARES OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT FOR THE EARLY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION SUN NIGHT INTO
MON NIGHT. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PUSH OUT CURRENT OH VALLEY
TROUGH WITH MATURING BROAD CANADIAN TROUGH DRIVING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIAL STORY WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCES
FROM CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE FOR THE FOURTH HOWEVER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THIS SMOKE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MN WITH RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO SEVERAL MILES TIMES AT
TIMES. DO NOT FEEL CONDITIONS WILL BE THAT POOR TOMORROW...BUT
NOAA AIR QUALITY MODELS DO INDICATE VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE
CONCENTRATIONS INCREASE SAT. THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPS BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE WHICH IS LIKELY TOO HIGH DUE TO SMOKE AND CLIMO
INFLUENCES. SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY PUSH SMOKE
EASTWARD BY SUN HOWEVER. RELATIVELY MOIST GROUND SHOULD STILL
KEEP TEMPS GETTING TO GUIDANCE HOWEVER SO HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
JUST BELOW THOSE VALUES. RECENT BIASES HAVE BEEN ON THE WARM SIDE
TOO.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE NW-SE LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT
HOWEVER. LOBE OF DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE SIOUXLAND
AREA SUN NIGHT.  PEAK HEATING GENESIS WILL LIKELY BE WELL REMOVED
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
IN AN AIRMASS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MCS
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING
MON WITH FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY LIMIT THINGS SOMEWHAT...BOTH GFS AND
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW UNCAPPED MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1800-4000 J/KG
IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHER NAM VALUES ARE LIKELY
OVERDONE...DRIVEN BY MID 70 DEWPOINTS...BUT EVEN THE LESS
AGGRESSIVE GFS WOULD SUGGEST UNCAPPED DEVELOPMENT. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP SHEAR HOWEVER WITH VALUES 30KTS OR
LESS IN UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES. THUS EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO
BE LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN WITH NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES AND PWATS WELL THROUGH THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND
PUSHING EXTREMES AT TIMES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALSO DEPICT WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 13.5K FT. SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS. PRECIP MAY LINGER SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NIGHT BUT EXIT BY TUESDAY.

NEXT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INTO DAYS 6 AND 7 AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
DRIFT THROUGH WEAK FLOW.  POPS ARE LOW AT THIS POINT AS DETAILS
DIFFICULT TO COME BY.  ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MS VALLEY
TROUGH DRIVING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE GFS IS WEAKER
RESULTING IN FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER NORTH AND POSSIBLY GETTING
CONVECTION AS FAR NORTH AS IA.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

POSSIBLE PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SMOKE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF IOWA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 040441
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WEATHER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MAIN CONCERN BECOMING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN COOL WELL OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WAA BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO THE NORTH HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE. IN
ADDITION...SMOKE FROM NORTHERN WILD FIRES MAY PUSH INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY. SAW
SOME ARES OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT FOR THE EARLY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION SUN NIGHT INTO
MON NIGHT. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PUSH OUT CURRENT OH VALLEY
TROUGH WITH MATURING BROAD CANADIAN TROUGH DRIVING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIAL STORY WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCES
FROM CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE FOR THE FOURTH HOWEVER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THIS SMOKE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MN WITH RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO SEVERAL MILES TIMES AT
TIMES. DO NOT FEEL CONDITIONS WILL BE THAT POOR TOMORROW...BUT
NOAA AIR QUALITY MODELS DO INDICATE VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE
CONCENTRATIONS INCREASE SAT. THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPS BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE WHICH IS LIKELY TOO HIGH DUE TO SMOKE AND CLIMO
INFLUENCES. SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY PUSH SMOKE
EASTWARD BY SUN HOWEVER. RELATIVELY MOIST GROUND SHOULD STILL
KEEP TEMPS GETTING TO GUIDANCE HOWEVER SO HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
JUST BELOW THOSE VALUES. RECENT BIASES HAVE BEEN ON THE WARM SIDE
TOO.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE NW-SE LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT
HOWEVER. LOBE OF DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE SIOUXLAND
AREA SUN NIGHT.  PEAK HEATING GENESIS WILL LIKELY BE WELL REMOVED
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
IN AN AIRMASS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MCS
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING
MON WITH FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY LIMIT THINGS SOMEWHAT...BOTH GFS AND
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW UNCAPPED MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1800-4000 J/KG
IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHER NAM VALUES ARE LIKELY
OVERDONE...DRIVEN BY MID 70 DEWPOINTS...BUT EVEN THE LESS
AGGRESSIVE GFS WOULD SUGGEST UNCAPPED DEVELOPMENT. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP SHEAR HOWEVER WITH VALUES 30KTS OR
LESS IN UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES. THUS EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO
BE LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN WITH NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES AND PWATS WELL THROUGH THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND
PUSHING EXTREMES AT TIMES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALSO DEPICT WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 13.5K FT. SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS. PRECIP MAY LINGER SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NIGHT BUT EXIT BY TUESDAY.

NEXT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INTO DAYS 6 AND 7 AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
DRIFT THROUGH WEAK FLOW.  POPS ARE LOW AT THIS POINT AS DETAILS
DIFFICULT TO COME BY.  ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MS VALLEY
TROUGH DRIVING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE GFS IS WEAKER
RESULTING IN FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER NORTH AND POSSIBLY GETTING
CONVECTION AS FAR NORTH AS IA.

&&

.AVIATION...04/06Z
ISSUED AT 1141 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

POSSIBLE PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT OTHERWISE PREDOMINANT VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH SMOKE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF IOWA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 032311
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
611 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WEATHER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MAIN CONCERN BECOMING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN COOL WELL OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WAA BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO THE NORTH HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE. IN
ADDITION...SMOKE FROM NORTHERN WILD FIRES MAY PUSH INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY. SAW
SOME ARES OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT FOR THE EARLY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION SUN NIGHT INTO
MON NIGHT. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PUSH OUT CURRENT OH VALLEY
TROUGH WITH MATURING BROAD CANADIAN TROUGH DRIVING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIAL STORY WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCES
FROM CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE FOR THE FOURTH HOWEVER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THIS SMOKE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MN WITH RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO SEVERAL MILES TIMES AT
TIMES. DO NOT FEEL CONDITIONS WILL BE THAT POOR TOMORROW...BUT
NOAA AIR QUALITY MODELS DO INDICATE VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE
CONCENTRATIONS INCREASE SAT. THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPS BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE WHICH IS LIKELY TOO HIGH DUE TO SMOKE AND CLIMO
INFLUENCES. SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY PUSH SMOKE
EASTWARD BY SUN HOWEVER. RELATIVELY MOIST GROUND SHOULD STILL
KEEP TEMPS GETTING TO GUIDANCE HOWEVER SO HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
JUST BELOW THOSE VALUES. RECENT BIASES HAVE BEEN ON THE WARM SIDE
TOO.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE NW-SE LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT
HOWEVER. LOBE OF DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE SIOUXLAND
AREA SUN NIGHT.  PEAK HEATING GENESIS WILL LIKELY BE WELL REMOVED
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
IN AN AIRMASS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MCS
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING
MON WITH FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY LIMIT THINGS SOMEWHAT...BOTH GFS AND
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW UNCAPPED MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1800-4000 J/KG
IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHER NAM VALUES ARE LIKELY
OVERDONE...DRIVEN BY MID 70 DEWPOINTS...BUT EVEN THE LESS
AGGRESSIVE GFS WOULD SUGGEST UNCAPPED DEVELOPMENT. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP SHEAR HOWEVER WITH VALUES 30KTS OR
LESS IN UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES. THUS EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO
BE LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN WITH NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES AND PWATS WELL THROUGH THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND
PUSHING EXTREMES AT TIMES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALSO DEPICT WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 13.5K FT. SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS. PRECIP MAY LINGER SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NIGHT BUT EXIT BY TUESDAY.

NEXT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INTO DAYS 6 AND 7 AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
DRIFT THROUGH WEAK FLOW.  POPS ARE LOW AT THIS POINT AS DETAILS
DIFFICULT TO COME BY.  ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MS VALLEY
TROUGH DRIVING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE GFS IS WEAKER
RESULTING IN FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER NORTH AND POSSIBLY GETTING
CONVECTION AS FAR NORTH AS IA.

&&

.AVIATION...04/00Z
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
POSSIBLE PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT. ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH SMOKE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF IOWA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...DONAVON




000
FXUS63 KDMX 032311
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
611 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WEATHER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MAIN CONCERN BECOMING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN COOL WELL OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WAA BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO THE NORTH HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE. IN
ADDITION...SMOKE FROM NORTHERN WILD FIRES MAY PUSH INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY. SAW
SOME ARES OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT FOR THE EARLY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION SUN NIGHT INTO
MON NIGHT. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PUSH OUT CURRENT OH VALLEY
TROUGH WITH MATURING BROAD CANADIAN TROUGH DRIVING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIAL STORY WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCES
FROM CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE FOR THE FOURTH HOWEVER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THIS SMOKE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MN WITH RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO SEVERAL MILES TIMES AT
TIMES. DO NOT FEEL CONDITIONS WILL BE THAT POOR TOMORROW...BUT
NOAA AIR QUALITY MODELS DO INDICATE VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE
CONCENTRATIONS INCREASE SAT. THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPS BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE WHICH IS LIKELY TOO HIGH DUE TO SMOKE AND CLIMO
INFLUENCES. SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY PUSH SMOKE
EASTWARD BY SUN HOWEVER. RELATIVELY MOIST GROUND SHOULD STILL
KEEP TEMPS GETTING TO GUIDANCE HOWEVER SO HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
JUST BELOW THOSE VALUES. RECENT BIASES HAVE BEEN ON THE WARM SIDE
TOO.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE NW-SE LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT
HOWEVER. LOBE OF DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE SIOUXLAND
AREA SUN NIGHT.  PEAK HEATING GENESIS WILL LIKELY BE WELL REMOVED
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
IN AN AIRMASS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MCS
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING
MON WITH FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY LIMIT THINGS SOMEWHAT...BOTH GFS AND
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW UNCAPPED MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1800-4000 J/KG
IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHER NAM VALUES ARE LIKELY
OVERDONE...DRIVEN BY MID 70 DEWPOINTS...BUT EVEN THE LESS
AGGRESSIVE GFS WOULD SUGGEST UNCAPPED DEVELOPMENT. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP SHEAR HOWEVER WITH VALUES 30KTS OR
LESS IN UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES. THUS EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO
BE LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN WITH NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES AND PWATS WELL THROUGH THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND
PUSHING EXTREMES AT TIMES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALSO DEPICT WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 13.5K FT. SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS. PRECIP MAY LINGER SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NIGHT BUT EXIT BY TUESDAY.

NEXT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INTO DAYS 6 AND 7 AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
DRIFT THROUGH WEAK FLOW.  POPS ARE LOW AT THIS POINT AS DETAILS
DIFFICULT TO COME BY.  ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MS VALLEY
TROUGH DRIVING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE GFS IS WEAKER
RESULTING IN FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER NORTH AND POSSIBLY GETTING
CONVECTION AS FAR NORTH AS IA.

&&

.AVIATION...04/00Z
ISSUED AT 611 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

PREDOMINANT VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
POSSIBLE PATCHY MVFR FOG LATE TONIGHT. ANY VSBY REDUCTIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH SMOKE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF IOWA.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 032056
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
356 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WEATHER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MAIN CONCERN BECOMING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN COOL WELL OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WAA BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO THE NORTH HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE. IN
ADDITION...SMOKE FROM NORTHERN WILD FIRES MAY PUSH INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY. SAW
SOME ARES OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT FOR THE EARLY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION SUN NIGHT INTO
MON NIGHT. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PUSH OUT CURRENT OH VALLEY
TROUGH WITH MATURING BROAD CANADIAN TROUGH DRIVING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIAL STORY WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCES
FROM CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE FOR THE FOURTH HOWEVER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THIS SMOKE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MN WITH RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO SEVERAL MILES TIMES AT
TIMES. DO NOT FEEL CONDITIONS WILL BE THAT POOR TOMORROW...BUT
NOAA AIR QUALITY MODELS DO INDICATE VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE
CONCENTRATIONS INCREASE SAT. THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPS BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE WHICH IS LIKELY TOO HIGH DUE TO SMOKE AND CLIMO
INFLUENCES. SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY PUSH SMOKE
EASTWARD BY SUN HOWEVER. RELATIVELY MOIST GROUND SHOULD STILL
KEEP TEMPS GETTING TO GUIDANCE HOWEVER SO HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
JUST BELOW THOSE VALUES. RECENT BIASES HAVE BEEN ON THE WARM SIDE
TOO.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE NW-SE LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT
HOWEVER. LOBE OF DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE SIOUXLAND
AREA SUN NIGHT.  PEAK HEATING GENESIS WILL LIKELY BE WELL REMOVED
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
IN AN AIRMASS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MCS
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING
MON WITH FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY LIMIT THINGS SOMEWHAT...BOTH GFS AND
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW UNCAPPED MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1800-4000 J/KG
IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHER NAM VALUES ARE LIKELY
OVERDONE...DRIVEN BY MID 70 DEWPOINTS...BUT EVEN THE LESS
AGGRESSIVE GFS WOULD SUGGEST UNCAPPED DEVELOPMENT. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP SHEAR HOWEVER WITH VALUES 30KTS OR
LESS IN UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES. THUS EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO
BE LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN WITH NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES AND PWATS WELL THROUGH THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND
PUSHING EXTREMES AT TIMES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALSO DEPICT WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 13.5K FT. SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS. PRECIP MAY LINGER SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NIGHT BUT EXIT BY TUESDAY.

NEXT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INTO DAYS 6 AND 7 AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
DRIFT THROUGH WEAK FLOW.  POPS ARE LOW AT THIS POINT AS DETAILS
DIFFICULT TO COME BY.  ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MS VALLEY
TROUGH DRIVING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE GFS IS WEAKER
RESULTING IN FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER NORTH AND POSSIBLY GETTING
CONVECTION AS FAR NORTH AS IA.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE IN
PERIOD AT SITES. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...MAY SEE MVFR OR
LOWER HZ OR BR AT SITES NEAR 12Z...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION
ATTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 032056
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
356 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE WEATHER
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT...WITH MAIN CONCERN BECOMING OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES. GIVEN AMOUNT OF DRY AIR AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONCE AGAIN COOL WELL OVERNIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY AND WAA BEGINNING TO PUSH
INTO THE NORTH HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES UP A LITTLE. IN
ADDITION...SMOKE FROM NORTHERN WILD FIRES MAY PUSH INTO IOWA
OVERNIGHT...WHICH COULD AID IN KEEPING TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY. SAW
SOME ARES OF FOG THIS MORNING IN THE WEST AND WITH LIGHT WINDS MAY
BE POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN DRY CONDITIONS HAVE
LEFT MENTION OUT FOR THE EARLY MORNING.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 353 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAIN CONCERN THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE CONVECTION SUN NIGHT INTO
MON NIGHT. PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL PUSH OUT CURRENT OH VALLEY
TROUGH WITH MATURING BROAD CANADIAN TROUGH DRIVING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIAL STORY WILL LIKELY BE INFLUENCES
FROM CANADIAN FIRE SMOKE FOR THE FOURTH HOWEVER. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY NICELY SHOWS THIS SMOKE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE
DAKOTAS AND MN WITH RESTRICTIONS DOWN TO SEVERAL MILES TIMES AT
TIMES. DO NOT FEEL CONDITIONS WILL BE THAT POOR TOMORROW...BUT
NOAA AIR QUALITY MODELS DO INDICATE VERTICALLY INTEGRATED SMOKE
CONCENTRATIONS INCREASE SAT. THUS HAVE KEPT TEMPS BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE WHICH IS LIKELY TOO HIGH DUE TO SMOKE AND CLIMO
INFLUENCES. SHORT WAVE RIDGE PASSAGE WILL LIKELY PUSH SMOKE
EASTWARD BY SUN HOWEVER. RELATIVELY MOIST GROUND SHOULD STILL
KEEP TEMPS GETTING TO GUIDANCE HOWEVER SO HAVE CONTINUED TO GO
JUST BELOW THOSE VALUES. RECENT BIASES HAVE BEEN ON THE WARM SIDE
TOO.

PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE NW-SE LATE SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON NIGHT
HOWEVER. LOBE OF DEEP FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH AND TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO THE SIOUXLAND
AREA SUN NIGHT.  PEAK HEATING GENESIS WILL LIKELY BE WELL REMOVED
FROM OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SYNOPTIC FORCING
IN AN AIRMASS WITH INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY KEEP THE MCS
GOING THROUGH THE NIGHT. EXPECT RE-DEVELOPMENT DURING PEAK HEATING
MON WITH FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FORECAST AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ALTHOUGH CONVECTIVE DEBRIS MAY LIMIT THINGS SOMEWHAT...BOTH GFS AND
NAM BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW UNCAPPED MLCAPES RANGING FROM 1800-4000 J/KG
IN THE WARM SECTOR. HIGHER NAM VALUES ARE LIKELY
OVERDONE...DRIVEN BY MID 70 DEWPOINTS...BUT EVEN THE LESS
AGGRESSIVE GFS WOULD SUGGEST UNCAPPED DEVELOPMENT. NEITHER MODEL
SHOWS MUCH IN THE WAY OF DEEP SHEAR HOWEVER WITH VALUES 30KTS OR
LESS IN UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES. THUS EXPECT SEVERE POTENTIAL TO
BE LOW. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY BE MORE OF A CONCERN WITH NAEFS
SPECIFIC HUMIDITIES AND PWATS WELL THROUGH THE 90TH PERCENTILE AND
PUSHING EXTREMES AT TIMES. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALSO DEPICT WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS OVER 13.5K FT. SYSTEM SHOULD BE TRANSIENT ENOUGH TO
PRECLUDE WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FLASH
FLOODING POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS. PRECIP MAY LINGER SOUTHEAST
INTO THE NIGHT BUT EXIT BY TUESDAY.

NEXT PRECIP CHANCES WILL BE INTO DAYS 6 AND 7 AS WEAK SHORT WAVES
DRIFT THROUGH WEAK FLOW.  POPS ARE LOW AT THIS POINT AS DETAILS
DIFFICULT TO COME BY.  ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH MS VALLEY
TROUGH DRIVING BAROCLINIC ZONE TO OUR SOUTH...WHILE GFS IS WEAKER
RESULTING IN FRONTAL ZONE FARTHER NORTH AND POSSIBLY GETTING
CONVECTION AS FAR NORTH AS IA.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE IN
PERIOD AT SITES. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...MAY SEE MVFR OR
LOWER HZ OR BR AT SITES NEAR 12Z...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION
ATTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB
LONG TERM...SMALL
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 031717
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1217 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
OUT OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WARMER AIR IN PLACE
TODAY ALONG WITH MORE SUN...SO HAVE HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE IF STILL HAVE THE HAZY CONDITIONS
WITH SMOKE AROUND FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. THIS COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LESS AND CAUSE MORE OF A FILTERED
SUNSHINE/CLOUDY LOOK TO THE SKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ADDRESSING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES. ON SATURDAY ALL
MODELS PICK UP AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THEN PUSHING EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS IOWA...IT IS FAR BETTER OVER
MINNESOTA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR IS WEAK TO NON-
EXISTENT AND WITH NO FORCING OR BOUNDARY AROUND I CHOSE TO KEEP
SATURDAY DRY. RECALL THAT YESTERDAYS CONCERN WAS THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS LOW AS TO WHERE AND WHEN. THERE IS STILL VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN BUT NOW INSTABILITY IS LOWER AS WELL
SO POPS WERE STILL KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FAR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST IOWA ARE STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH
RESPECT TO A STAY SHOWER OR STORM.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WHEN SUFFICIENT SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR NW IA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A BIT OF FORCING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS WILL FIRE IN
THIS AREA AND MAY MERGE INTO AN MCS AFFECTING NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY
ON AND ROLLING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE. WE MAY SEE SOME LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH THE STORMS INITIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN
AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY AND WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ABOVE 11KFT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS SOME SHEAR REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THE
BEST SHEAR WILL LAG THE BOUNDARY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY SO
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD MONDAY...AT LEAST FOR A
WIDESPREAD EVENT. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BY
AFTERNOON BUT BY THEN THE BOUNDARY IS OUT OR NEARLY OUT OF THE
AREA AND AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF OR
EXITING THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
TUESDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MORNING AND WILL
STAY WITH US THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOME WITH
THE GFS DRIVING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS IOWA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND BEYOND WHILE THE EURO BUILDS A RIDGE OVER IA. FOR NOW I
KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DID LOWER
THE PERCENTAGES SOME. FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL COME AS MODELS COME
CLOSER TO AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE IN
PERIOD AT SITES. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...MAY SEE MVFR OR
LOWER HZ OR BR AT SITES NEAR 12Z...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION
ATTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 031717
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1217 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
OUT OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WARMER AIR IN PLACE
TODAY ALONG WITH MORE SUN...SO HAVE HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE IF STILL HAVE THE HAZY CONDITIONS
WITH SMOKE AROUND FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. THIS COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LESS AND CAUSE MORE OF A FILTERED
SUNSHINE/CLOUDY LOOK TO THE SKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ADDRESSING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES. ON SATURDAY ALL
MODELS PICK UP AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THEN PUSHING EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS IOWA...IT IS FAR BETTER OVER
MINNESOTA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR IS WEAK TO NON-
EXISTENT AND WITH NO FORCING OR BOUNDARY AROUND I CHOSE TO KEEP
SATURDAY DRY. RECALL THAT YESTERDAYS CONCERN WAS THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS LOW AS TO WHERE AND WHEN. THERE IS STILL VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN BUT NOW INSTABILITY IS LOWER AS WELL
SO POPS WERE STILL KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FAR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST IOWA ARE STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH
RESPECT TO A STAY SHOWER OR STORM.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WHEN SUFFICIENT SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR NW IA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A BIT OF FORCING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS WILL FIRE IN
THIS AREA AND MAY MERGE INTO AN MCS AFFECTING NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY
ON AND ROLLING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE. WE MAY SEE SOME LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH THE STORMS INITIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN
AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY AND WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ABOVE 11KFT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS SOME SHEAR REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THE
BEST SHEAR WILL LAG THE BOUNDARY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY SO
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD MONDAY...AT LEAST FOR A
WIDESPREAD EVENT. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BY
AFTERNOON BUT BY THEN THE BOUNDARY IS OUT OR NEARLY OUT OF THE
AREA AND AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF OR
EXITING THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
TUESDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MORNING AND WILL
STAY WITH US THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOME WITH
THE GFS DRIVING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS IOWA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND BEYOND WHILE THE EURO BUILDS A RIDGE OVER IA. FOR NOW I
KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DID LOWER
THE PERCENTAGES SOME. FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL COME AS MODELS COME
CLOSER TO AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE IN
PERIOD AT SITES. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...MAY SEE MVFR OR
LOWER HZ OR BR AT SITES NEAR 12Z...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION
ATTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 031717
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1217 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
OUT OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WARMER AIR IN PLACE
TODAY ALONG WITH MORE SUN...SO HAVE HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE IF STILL HAVE THE HAZY CONDITIONS
WITH SMOKE AROUND FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. THIS COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LESS AND CAUSE MORE OF A FILTERED
SUNSHINE/CLOUDY LOOK TO THE SKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ADDRESSING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES. ON SATURDAY ALL
MODELS PICK UP AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THEN PUSHING EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS IOWA...IT IS FAR BETTER OVER
MINNESOTA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR IS WEAK TO NON-
EXISTENT AND WITH NO FORCING OR BOUNDARY AROUND I CHOSE TO KEEP
SATURDAY DRY. RECALL THAT YESTERDAYS CONCERN WAS THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS LOW AS TO WHERE AND WHEN. THERE IS STILL VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN BUT NOW INSTABILITY IS LOWER AS WELL
SO POPS WERE STILL KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FAR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST IOWA ARE STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH
RESPECT TO A STAY SHOWER OR STORM.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WHEN SUFFICIENT SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR NW IA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A BIT OF FORCING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS WILL FIRE IN
THIS AREA AND MAY MERGE INTO AN MCS AFFECTING NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY
ON AND ROLLING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE. WE MAY SEE SOME LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH THE STORMS INITIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN
AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY AND WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ABOVE 11KFT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS SOME SHEAR REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THE
BEST SHEAR WILL LAG THE BOUNDARY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY SO
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD MONDAY...AT LEAST FOR A
WIDESPREAD EVENT. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BY
AFTERNOON BUT BY THEN THE BOUNDARY IS OUT OR NEARLY OUT OF THE
AREA AND AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF OR
EXITING THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
TUESDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MORNING AND WILL
STAY WITH US THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOME WITH
THE GFS DRIVING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS IOWA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND BEYOND WHILE THE EURO BUILDS A RIDGE OVER IA. FOR NOW I
KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DID LOWER
THE PERCENTAGES SOME. FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL COME AS MODELS COME
CLOSER TO AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE IN
PERIOD AT SITES. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...MAY SEE MVFR OR
LOWER HZ OR BR AT SITES NEAR 12Z...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION
ATTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...AWB




000
FXUS63 KDMX 031717
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1217 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
OUT OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WARMER AIR IN PLACE
TODAY ALONG WITH MORE SUN...SO HAVE HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE IF STILL HAVE THE HAZY CONDITIONS
WITH SMOKE AROUND FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. THIS COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LESS AND CAUSE MORE OF A FILTERED
SUNSHINE/CLOUDY LOOK TO THE SKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ADDRESSING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES. ON SATURDAY ALL
MODELS PICK UP AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THEN PUSHING EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS IOWA...IT IS FAR BETTER OVER
MINNESOTA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR IS WEAK TO NON-
EXISTENT AND WITH NO FORCING OR BOUNDARY AROUND I CHOSE TO KEEP
SATURDAY DRY. RECALL THAT YESTERDAYS CONCERN WAS THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS LOW AS TO WHERE AND WHEN. THERE IS STILL VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN BUT NOW INSTABILITY IS LOWER AS WELL
SO POPS WERE STILL KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FAR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST IOWA ARE STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH
RESPECT TO A STAY SHOWER OR STORM.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WHEN SUFFICIENT SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR NW IA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A BIT OF FORCING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS WILL FIRE IN
THIS AREA AND MAY MERGE INTO AN MCS AFFECTING NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY
ON AND ROLLING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE. WE MAY SEE SOME LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH THE STORMS INITIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN
AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY AND WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ABOVE 11KFT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS SOME SHEAR REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THE
BEST SHEAR WILL LAG THE BOUNDARY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY SO
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD MONDAY...AT LEAST FOR A
WIDESPREAD EVENT. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BY
AFTERNOON BUT BY THEN THE BOUNDARY IS OUT OR NEARLY OUT OF THE
AREA AND AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF OR
EXITING THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
TUESDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MORNING AND WILL
STAY WITH US THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOME WITH
THE GFS DRIVING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS IOWA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND BEYOND WHILE THE EURO BUILDS A RIDGE OVER IA. FOR NOW I
KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DID LOWER
THE PERCENTAGES SOME. FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL COME AS MODELS COME
CLOSER TO AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...03/18Z
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS VFR THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT...BECOMING SOUTHERLY LATE IN
PERIOD AT SITES. WITH LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT...MAY SEE MVFR OR
LOWER HZ OR BR AT SITES NEAR 12Z...BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED MENTION
ATTM.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 031134
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
634 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
OUT OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WARMER AIR IN PLACE
TODAY ALONG WITH MORE SUN...SO HAVE HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE IF STILL HAVE THE HAZY CONDITIONS
WITH SMOKE AROUND FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. THIS COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LESS AND CAUSE MORE OF A FILTERED
SUNSHINE/CLOUDY LOOK TO THE SKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ADDRESSING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES. ON SATURDAY ALL
MODELS PICK UP AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THEN PUSHING EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS IOWA...IT IS FAR BETTER OVER
MINNESOTA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR IS WEAK TO NON-
EXISTENT AND WITH NO FORCING OR BOUNDARY AROUND I CHOSE TO KEEP
SATURDAY DRY. RECALL THAT YESTERDAYS CONCERN WAS THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS LOW AS TO WHERE AND WHEN. THERE IS STILL VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN BUT NOW INSTABILITY IS LOWER AS WELL
SO POPS WERE STILL KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FAR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST IOWA ARE STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH
RESPECT TO A STAY SHOWER OR STORM.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WHEN SUFFICIENT SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR NW IA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A BIT OF FORCING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS WILL FIRE IN
THIS AREA AND MAY MERGE INTO AN MCS AFFECTING NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY
ON AND ROLLING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE. WE MAY SEE SOME LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH THE STORMS INITIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN
AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY AND WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ABOVE 11KFT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS SOME SHEAR REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THE
BEST SHEAR WILL LAG THE BOUNDARY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY SO
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD MONDAY...AT LEAST FOR A
WIDESPREAD EVENT. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BY
AFTERNOON BUT BY THEN THE BOUNDARY IS OUT OR NEARLY OUT OF THE
AREA AND AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF OR
EXITING THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
TUESDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MORNING AND WILL
STAY WITH US THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOME WITH
THE GFS DRIVING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS IOWA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND BEYOND WHILE THE EURO BUILDS A RIDGE OVER IA. FOR NOW I
KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DID LOWER
THE PERCENTAGES SOME. FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL COME AS MODELS COME
CLOSER TO AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT FOG BEING REPORTED AT KFOD WITH VSBYS BOUNCING AROUND
BETWEEN IFR/MVFR AND VFR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS MAY STAY REDUCED
FOR AN HOUR AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
REGION.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 031134
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
634 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
OUT OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WARMER AIR IN PLACE
TODAY ALONG WITH MORE SUN...SO HAVE HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE IF STILL HAVE THE HAZY CONDITIONS
WITH SMOKE AROUND FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. THIS COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LESS AND CAUSE MORE OF A FILTERED
SUNSHINE/CLOUDY LOOK TO THE SKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ADDRESSING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES. ON SATURDAY ALL
MODELS PICK UP AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THEN PUSHING EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS IOWA...IT IS FAR BETTER OVER
MINNESOTA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR IS WEAK TO NON-
EXISTENT AND WITH NO FORCING OR BOUNDARY AROUND I CHOSE TO KEEP
SATURDAY DRY. RECALL THAT YESTERDAYS CONCERN WAS THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS LOW AS TO WHERE AND WHEN. THERE IS STILL VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN BUT NOW INSTABILITY IS LOWER AS WELL
SO POPS WERE STILL KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FAR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST IOWA ARE STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH
RESPECT TO A STAY SHOWER OR STORM.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WHEN SUFFICIENT SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR NW IA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A BIT OF FORCING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS WILL FIRE IN
THIS AREA AND MAY MERGE INTO AN MCS AFFECTING NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY
ON AND ROLLING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE. WE MAY SEE SOME LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH THE STORMS INITIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN
AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY AND WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ABOVE 11KFT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS SOME SHEAR REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THE
BEST SHEAR WILL LAG THE BOUNDARY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY SO
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD MONDAY...AT LEAST FOR A
WIDESPREAD EVENT. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BY
AFTERNOON BUT BY THEN THE BOUNDARY IS OUT OR NEARLY OUT OF THE
AREA AND AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF OR
EXITING THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
TUESDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MORNING AND WILL
STAY WITH US THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOME WITH
THE GFS DRIVING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS IOWA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND BEYOND WHILE THE EURO BUILDS A RIDGE OVER IA. FOR NOW I
KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DID LOWER
THE PERCENTAGES SOME. FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL COME AS MODELS COME
CLOSER TO AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT FOG BEING REPORTED AT KFOD WITH VSBYS BOUNCING AROUND
BETWEEN IFR/MVFR AND VFR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS MAY STAY REDUCED
FOR AN HOUR AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
REGION.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 031134
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
634 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
OUT OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WARMER AIR IN PLACE
TODAY ALONG WITH MORE SUN...SO HAVE HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE IF STILL HAVE THE HAZY CONDITIONS
WITH SMOKE AROUND FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. THIS COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LESS AND CAUSE MORE OF A FILTERED
SUNSHINE/CLOUDY LOOK TO THE SKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ADDRESSING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES. ON SATURDAY ALL
MODELS PICK UP AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THEN PUSHING EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS IOWA...IT IS FAR BETTER OVER
MINNESOTA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR IS WEAK TO NON-
EXISTENT AND WITH NO FORCING OR BOUNDARY AROUND I CHOSE TO KEEP
SATURDAY DRY. RECALL THAT YESTERDAYS CONCERN WAS THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS LOW AS TO WHERE AND WHEN. THERE IS STILL VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN BUT NOW INSTABILITY IS LOWER AS WELL
SO POPS WERE STILL KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FAR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST IOWA ARE STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH
RESPECT TO A STAY SHOWER OR STORM.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WHEN SUFFICIENT SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR NW IA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A BIT OF FORCING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS WILL FIRE IN
THIS AREA AND MAY MERGE INTO AN MCS AFFECTING NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY
ON AND ROLLING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE. WE MAY SEE SOME LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH THE STORMS INITIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN
AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY AND WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ABOVE 11KFT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS SOME SHEAR REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THE
BEST SHEAR WILL LAG THE BOUNDARY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY SO
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD MONDAY...AT LEAST FOR A
WIDESPREAD EVENT. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BY
AFTERNOON BUT BY THEN THE BOUNDARY IS OUT OR NEARLY OUT OF THE
AREA AND AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF OR
EXITING THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
TUESDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MORNING AND WILL
STAY WITH US THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOME WITH
THE GFS DRIVING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS IOWA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND BEYOND WHILE THE EURO BUILDS A RIDGE OVER IA. FOR NOW I
KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DID LOWER
THE PERCENTAGES SOME. FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL COME AS MODELS COME
CLOSER TO AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT FOG BEING REPORTED AT KFOD WITH VSBYS BOUNCING AROUND
BETWEEN IFR/MVFR AND VFR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS MAY STAY REDUCED
FOR AN HOUR AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
REGION.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...BEERENDS




000
FXUS63 KDMX 031134
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
634 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
OUT OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WARMER AIR IN PLACE
TODAY ALONG WITH MORE SUN...SO HAVE HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE IF STILL HAVE THE HAZY CONDITIONS
WITH SMOKE AROUND FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. THIS COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LESS AND CAUSE MORE OF A FILTERED
SUNSHINE/CLOUDY LOOK TO THE SKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ADDRESSING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES. ON SATURDAY ALL
MODELS PICK UP AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THEN PUSHING EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS IOWA...IT IS FAR BETTER OVER
MINNESOTA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR IS WEAK TO NON-
EXISTENT AND WITH NO FORCING OR BOUNDARY AROUND I CHOSE TO KEEP
SATURDAY DRY. RECALL THAT YESTERDAYS CONCERN WAS THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS LOW AS TO WHERE AND WHEN. THERE IS STILL VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN BUT NOW INSTABILITY IS LOWER AS WELL
SO POPS WERE STILL KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FAR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST IOWA ARE STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH
RESPECT TO A STAY SHOWER OR STORM.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WHEN SUFFICIENT SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR NW IA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A BIT OF FORCING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS WILL FIRE IN
THIS AREA AND MAY MERGE INTO AN MCS AFFECTING NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY
ON AND ROLLING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE. WE MAY SEE SOME LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH THE STORMS INITIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN
AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY AND WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ABOVE 11KFT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS SOME SHEAR REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THE
BEST SHEAR WILL LAG THE BOUNDARY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY SO
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD MONDAY...AT LEAST FOR A
WIDESPREAD EVENT. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BY
AFTERNOON BUT BY THEN THE BOUNDARY IS OUT OR NEARLY OUT OF THE
AREA AND AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF OR
EXITING THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
TUESDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MORNING AND WILL
STAY WITH US THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOME WITH
THE GFS DRIVING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS IOWA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND BEYOND WHILE THE EURO BUILDS A RIDGE OVER IA. FOR NOW I
KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DID LOWER
THE PERCENTAGES SOME. FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL COME AS MODELS COME
CLOSER TO AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD. SOME
LIGHT FOG BEING REPORTED AT KFOD WITH VSBYS BOUNCING AROUND
BETWEEN IFR/MVFR AND VFR OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS MAY STAY REDUCED
FOR AN HOUR AFTER TAF ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS EXPECTED WITH AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATING THE
REGION.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 030849
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
349 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
OUT OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WARMER AIR IN PLACE
TODAY ALONG WITH MORE SUN...SO HAVE HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE IF STILL HAVE THE HAZY CONDITIONS
WITH SMOKE AROUND FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. THIS COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LESS AND CAUSE MORE OF A FILTERED
SUNSHINE/CLOUDY LOOK TO THE SKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ADDRESSING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES. ON SATURDAY ALL
MODELS PICK UP AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THEN PUSHING EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS IOWA...IT IS FAR BETTER OVER
MINNESOTA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR IS WEAK TO NON-
EXISTENT AND WITH NO FORCING OR BOUNDARY AROUND I CHOSE TO KEEP
SATURDAY DRY. RECALL THAT YESTERDAYS CONCERN WAS THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS LOW AS TO WHERE AND WHEN. THERE IS STILL VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN BUT NOW INSTABILITY IS LOWER AS WELL
SO POPS WERE STILL KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FAR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST IOWA ARE STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH
RESPECT TO A STAY SHOWER OR STORM.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WHEN SUFFICIENT SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR NW IA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A BIT OF FORCING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS WILL FIRE IN
THIS AREA AND MAY MERGE INTO AN MCS AFFECTING NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY
ON AND ROLLING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE. WE MAY SEE SOME LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH THE STORMS INITIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN
AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY AND WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ABOVE 11KFT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS SOME SHEAR REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THE
BEST SHEAR WILL LAG THE BOUNDARY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY SO
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD MONDAY...AT LEAST FOR A
WIDESPREAD EVENT. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BY
AFTERNOON BUT BY THEN THE BOUNDARY IS OUT OR NEARLY OUT OF THE
AREA AND AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF OR
EXITING THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
TUESDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MORNING AND WILL
STAY WITH US THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOME WITH
THE GFS DRIVING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS IOWA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND BEYOND WHILE THE EURO BUILDS A RIDGE OVER IA. FOR NOW I
KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DID LOWER
THE PERCENTAGES SOME. FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL COME AS MODELS COME
CLOSER TO AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WI/MN WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. VERY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CIGS EXPECTED. FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS TNT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY
12Z MOST AREAS. WINDS REMAIN EITHER LIGHT/VAR OR LIGHT NORTHEAST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 030849
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
349 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
OUT OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WARMER AIR IN PLACE
TODAY ALONG WITH MORE SUN...SO HAVE HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE IF STILL HAVE THE HAZY CONDITIONS
WITH SMOKE AROUND FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. THIS COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LESS AND CAUSE MORE OF A FILTERED
SUNSHINE/CLOUDY LOOK TO THE SKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ADDRESSING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES. ON SATURDAY ALL
MODELS PICK UP AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THEN PUSHING EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS IOWA...IT IS FAR BETTER OVER
MINNESOTA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR IS WEAK TO NON-
EXISTENT AND WITH NO FORCING OR BOUNDARY AROUND I CHOSE TO KEEP
SATURDAY DRY. RECALL THAT YESTERDAYS CONCERN WAS THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS LOW AS TO WHERE AND WHEN. THERE IS STILL VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN BUT NOW INSTABILITY IS LOWER AS WELL
SO POPS WERE STILL KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FAR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST IOWA ARE STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH
RESPECT TO A STAY SHOWER OR STORM.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WHEN SUFFICIENT SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR NW IA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A BIT OF FORCING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS WILL FIRE IN
THIS AREA AND MAY MERGE INTO AN MCS AFFECTING NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY
ON AND ROLLING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE. WE MAY SEE SOME LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH THE STORMS INITIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN
AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY AND WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ABOVE 11KFT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS SOME SHEAR REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THE
BEST SHEAR WILL LAG THE BOUNDARY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY SO
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD MONDAY...AT LEAST FOR A
WIDESPREAD EVENT. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BY
AFTERNOON BUT BY THEN THE BOUNDARY IS OUT OR NEARLY OUT OF THE
AREA AND AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF OR
EXITING THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
TUESDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MORNING AND WILL
STAY WITH US THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOME WITH
THE GFS DRIVING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS IOWA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND BEYOND WHILE THE EURO BUILDS A RIDGE OVER IA. FOR NOW I
KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DID LOWER
THE PERCENTAGES SOME. FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL COME AS MODELS COME
CLOSER TO AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WI/MN WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. VERY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CIGS EXPECTED. FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS TNT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY
12Z MOST AREAS. WINDS REMAIN EITHER LIGHT/VAR OR LIGHT NORTHEAST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV




000
FXUS63 KDMX 030849
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
349 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA INTO
SRN WI WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE REGION TODAY. THIS WILL BRING
DRY CONDITIONS WITH SKIES EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS THE HIGH CLOUDS MOVE
OUT OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WARMER AIR IN PLACE
TODAY ALONG WITH MORE SUN...SO HAVE HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE IF STILL HAVE THE HAZY CONDITIONS
WITH SMOKE AROUND FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. THIS COULD ALLOW
TEMPS TO BE A DEGREE OR TWO LESS AND CAUSE MORE OF A FILTERED
SUNSHINE/CLOUDY LOOK TO THE SKY. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH THE
HIGH OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 320 AM CDT FRI JUL 3 2015

OVERALL THE FORECAST THINKING HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE
TODAY...EXCEPT FOR ADDRESSING SOME SUBTLE CHANGES. ON SATURDAY ALL
MODELS PICK UP AND A SHORTWAVE DROPPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS THEN PUSHING EAST THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME
INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS IOWA...IT IS FAR BETTER OVER
MINNESOTA SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. SHEAR IS WEAK TO NON-
EXISTENT AND WITH NO FORCING OR BOUNDARY AROUND I CHOSE TO KEEP
SATURDAY DRY. RECALL THAT YESTERDAYS CONCERN WAS THAT THERE WOULD
BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME SHOWERS/STORMS AROUND BUT
CONFIDENCE WAS LOW AS TO WHERE AND WHEN. THERE IS STILL VERY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN WHERE AND WHEN BUT NOW INSTABILITY IS LOWER AS WELL
SO POPS WERE STILL KEPT OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...FAR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST IOWA ARE STILL NOT COMPLETELY OUT OF THE WOODS WITH
RESPECT TO A STAY SHOWER OR STORM.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO SUNDAY NIGHT MONDAY WHEN SUFFICIENT SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY WILL COINCIDE WITH A BOUNDARY NEAR NW IA SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS ALSO QUITE A BIT OF FORCING OVER THE DAKOTAS AND
NEBRASKA. IT LOOKS LIKE THE SCENARIO IS THAT STORMS WILL FIRE IN
THIS AREA AND MAY MERGE INTO AN MCS AFFECTING NORTHWEST IOWA EARLY
ON AND ROLLING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA LATE. WE MAY SEE SOME LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WITH THE STORMS INITIALLY WITH HEAVY RAIN
AS WELL.

ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY AND WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS ABOVE 11KFT HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE. A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY AS SOME SHEAR REMAINS FOCUSED ALONG THE BOUNDARY BUT THE
BEST SHEAR WILL LAG THE BOUNDARY FOR A GOOD CHUNK OF THE DAY SO
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS NOT LOOKING AS GOOD MONDAY...AT LEAST FOR A
WIDESPREAD EVENT. STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE ORGANIZED BY
AFTERNOON BUT BY THEN THE BOUNDARY IS OUT OR NEARLY OUT OF THE
AREA AND AS SUCH...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE OUT OF OR
EXITING THE AREA.

LINGERING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE VERY FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST EARLY
TUESDAY BUT HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY RETURNS BY LATE MORNING AND WILL
STAY WITH US THROUGH MID WEEK. AFTER THAT MODELS DIVERGE SOME WITH
THE GFS DRIVING A SHORTWAVE ACROSS IOWA AT THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD AND BEYOND WHILE THE EURO BUILDS A RIDGE OVER IA. FOR NOW I
KEPT CHANCE TO SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER CENTRAL IOWA BUT DID LOWER
THE PERCENTAGES SOME. FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL COME AS MODELS COME
CLOSER TO AGREEMENT IN LATER PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION...03/06Z
ISSUED AT 1123 PM CDT THU JUL 2 2015

QUIET CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
WI/MN WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY. VERY LIGHT WINDS AND VFR
CIGS EXPECTED. FEW MID LEVEL CLOUDS TNT WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR BY
12Z MOST AREAS. WINDS REMAIN EITHER LIGHT/VAR OR LIGHT NORTHEAST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...REV





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