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000
FXUS63 KDMX 240508
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1208 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD. MAY SEE LINGERING SCATTER SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY...HOWEVER...WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. WILL KEEP WIND
ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE IT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME.

NEXT CONCERN BECOMES PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER...AND GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF PRECIPITATION IN
CENTRAL NE WILL KEEP A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN NEBRASKA WHICH WILL PUSH EAST WITH LOW. IN
ADDITION...GOOD SWATH OF THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO IOWA ESPECIALLY AS LLJ INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
AND GOOD SHEAR. HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION
WITH STRONG MOISTURE FLOW INTO SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT
VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH...WHICH IS SEASONALLY HIGH. THEREFORE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE EXTENDED CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY TWO WORDS...WET AND COLD. FOR
TOMORROW THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY WILL PUSH EAST WITH IT
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL LAG BEHIND AND TAKE MOST OF
THE REST OF THURSDAY TO CLEAR THE AREA. THUS WE WILL SEE SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING. THE STORMS BECOME ISOLATED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO EASTERN IOWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO SIX TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE EAST SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL GET A GOOD
SOAKING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY BUT IOWA WILL REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WE WILL WARM NICELY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S AND 70S.

BEYOND SATURDAY THE FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS FAR AS TEMPS
AND JUST HOW THE WESTERN LOW/TROUGH WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING THE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WHICH
WILL SHARPEN THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE A
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NE CO/WRN NE WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING
INTO NW MO...POSSIBLY INTO SW IA. THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL
BE KEY TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN IA. THE EURO HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FEATURE...BOUNCING BETWEEN
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO COLORADO. THE LATEST RUN IS BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS AGAIN. AS THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES EAST
IT WILL TAP THE GULF AND THERE WILL BE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE STATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT GOOD OVERRUNNING WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE BUT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. STILL CONCERNED
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH. IF WE WERE TO GET STRONGER STORMS THE
PERIOD OF CONCERN AT THIS POINT WOULD BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BUT THERE ARE TOO MANY DETAILS THAT STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED
BEFORE PINNING DOWN A TIME.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT...UNLESS THE EURO CHANGES YET
AGAIN...IS FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM BUT TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD AS WERE DEPICTED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO. THEREFORE PTYPE IS ALL RAIN BUT THE THRESHOLD IS NARROW
SO IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE COLDER AIR DRAWN DOWN THERE STILL MAY BE
A MIX ACROSS THE VERY FAR NORTH. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER I HAVE JUST
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE COOL AND WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1203 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL KS WITH COLD FRONT FROM ERN SD THROUGH
THE LOW INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL MOVE EAST TO CENTRAL IA BY
EARLY THU AFTERNOON...AND EAST OF THE TAF SITES BY EVENING.
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORMS
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SEVERAL HOURS OF MVFR CIGS AROUND THE
FRONT. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE QUICKLY OVER WRN IA THU
AFTERNOON...AND IN THE EAST BY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE STATE ON FRIDAY
WITH GOOD VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS. VFR INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES IN ABOUT SAT NIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB/FAB
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...MS APR 14





000
FXUS63 KDMX 232325
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
625 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD. MAY SEE LINGERING SCATTER SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY...HOWEVER...WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. WILL KEEP WIND
ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE IT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME.

NEXT CONCERN BECOMES PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER...AND GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF PRECIPITATION IN
CENTRAL NE WILL KEEP A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN NEBRASKA WHICH WILL PUSH EAST WITH LOW. IN
ADDITION...GOOD SWATH OF THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO IOWA ESPECIALLY AS LLJ INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
AND GOOD SHEAR. HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION
WITH STRONG MOISTURE FLOW INTO SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT
VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH...WHICH IS SEASONALLY HIGH. THEREFORE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE EXTENDED CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY TWO WORDS...WET AND COLD. FOR
TOMORROW THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY WILL PUSH EAST WITH IT
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL LAG BEHIND AND TAKE MOST OF
THE REST OF THURSDAY TO CLEAR THE AREA. THUS WE WILL SEE SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING. THE STORMS BECOME ISOLATED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO EASTERN IOWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO SIX TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE EAST SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL GET A GOOD
SOAKING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY BUT IOWA WILL REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WE WILL WARM NICELY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S AND 70S.

BEYOND SATURDAY THE FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS FAR AS TEMPS
AND JUST HOW THE WESTERN LOW/TROUGH WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING THE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WHICH
WILL SHARPEN THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE A
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NE CO/WRN NE WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING
INTO NW MO...POSSIBLY INTO SW IA. THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL
BE KEY TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN IA. THE EURO HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FEATURE...BOUNCING BETWEEN
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO COLORADO. THE LATEST RUN IS BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS AGAIN. AS THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES EAST
IT WILL TAP THE GULF AND THERE WILL BE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE STATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT GOOD OVERRUNNING WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE BUT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. STILL CONCERNED
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH. IF WE WERE TO GET STRONGER STORMS THE
PERIOD OF CONCERN AT THIS POINT WOULD BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BUT THERE ARE TOO MANY DETAILS THAT STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED
BEFORE PINNING DOWN A TIME.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT...UNLESS THE EURO CHANGES YET
AGAIN...IS FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM BUT TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD AS WERE DEPICTED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO. THEREFORE PTYPE IS ALL RAIN BUT THE THRESHOLD IS NARROW
SO IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE COLDER AIR DRAWN DOWN THERE STILL MAY BE
A MIX ACROSS THE VERY FAR NORTH. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER I HAVE JUST
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE COOL AND WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...24/00Z
ISSUED AT 622 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

SELY FLOW OF MOIST AIR AHEAD OF COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS IN CIGS AND TSRA. SHOWERS THIS EVENING
WILL GIVE WAY TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BEFORE MIDNIGHT
IN THE WEST AND OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS WITH SHOWERS ON
THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE OVER THE WESTERN TAF SITES
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND REMAIN MVFR OVER THE EAST.

OUTLOOK...CLOUDS WILL CLEARLY RAPIDLY THU EVENING WITH GOOD VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR FRI INTO FRI NIGHT.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB/FAB
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...MS APR 14





000
FXUS63 KDMX 232046
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
346 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

ONGOING PRECIPITATION ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
EASTWARD. MAY SEE LINGERING SCATTER SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTH AND EAST FOR THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG AND GUSTY...HOWEVER...WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES. WILL KEEP WIND
ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WITH SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR ADVISORY
CRITERIA. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE IT WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE ON TIME.

NEXT CONCERN BECOMES PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL PUSH EASTWARD...WITH INCREASING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.
MODELS ARE A BIT SLOWER...AND GIVEN CURRENT LACK OF PRECIPITATION IN
CENTRAL NE WILL KEEP A SLIGHTLY SLOWER SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...ANTICIPATE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP IN NEBRASKA WHICH WILL PUSH EAST WITH LOW. IN
ADDITION...GOOD SWATH OF THETA-E ADVECTION WILL HELP KEEP
PRECIPITATION GOING INTO IOWA ESPECIALLY AS LLJ INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE WITH DECENT INSTABILITY
AND GOOD SHEAR. HOWEVER...MAIN CONCERN WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION
WITH STRONG MOISTURE FLOW INTO SYSTEM. SOUNDINGS INDICATE PWAT
VALUES NEAR OR ABOVE 1 INCH...WHICH IS SEASONALLY HIGH. THEREFORE
SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

THE EXTENDED CAN BE CHARACTERIZED BY TWO WORDS...WET AND COLD. FOR
TOMORROW THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH EAST
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. THE INSTABILITY WILL PUSH EAST WITH IT
BUT THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE WILL LAG BEHIND AND TAKE MOST OF
THE REST OF THURSDAY TO CLEAR THE AREA. THUS WE WILL SEE SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
MORNING. THE STORMS BECOME ISOLATED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AND WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO EASTERN IOWA IN THE
AFTERNOON. CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE DAY. AN
ADDITIONAL FOUR TO SIX TENTHS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER THE EAST SO MOST LOCATIONS WILL GET A GOOD
SOAKING BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO INTO THE PLAINS THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY BUT IOWA WILL REMAIN IN A WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
WE WILL WARM NICELY ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS BACK IN THE 60S AND 70S.

BEYOND SATURDAY THE FORECAST IS STILL UNCERTAIN AS FAR AS TEMPS
AND JUST HOW THE WESTERN LOW/TROUGH WILL DEVELOP. THE GFS HAS BEEN
CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING THE LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA WHICH
WILL SHARPEN THE RIDGE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE A
LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER NE CO/WRN NE WITH A WARM FRONT STRETCHING
INTO NW MO...POSSIBLY INTO SW IA. THE LOCATION OF THE FRONT WILL
BE KEY TO WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN IA. THE EURO HAS BEEN ALL OVER THE
PLACE WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE UPPER FEATURE...BOUNCING BETWEEN
THE FOUR CORNERS AREA TO COLORADO. THE LATEST RUN IS BACK TO THE
SOUTH AND SIMILAR TO THE GFS AGAIN. AS THE UPPER LOW MIGRATES EAST
IT WILL TAP THE GULF AND THERE WILL BE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION
INTO THE STATE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO REMAIN
JUST SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT GOOD OVERRUNNING WILL BRING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE STATE BUT
THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE JUST TO OUR SOUTH. STILL CONCERNED
WITH HEAVY RAINFALL THOUGH. IF WE WERE TO GET STRONGER STORMS THE
PERIOD OF CONCERN AT THIS POINT WOULD BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
BUT THERE ARE TOO MANY DETAILS THAT STILL NEED TO BE RESOLVED
BEFORE PINNING DOWN A TIME.

THE MODEL CONSENSUS AT THIS POINT...UNLESS THE EURO CHANGES YET
AGAIN...IS FOR THE UPPER MIDWEST TO BE ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS
STORM SYSTEM BUT TEMPS ARE NOT AS COLD AS WERE DEPICTED A COUPLE
DAYS AGO. THEREFORE PTYPE IS ALL RAIN BUT THE THRESHOLD IS NARROW
SO IF WE CAN GET A LITTLE COLDER AIR DRAWN DOWN THERE STILL MAY BE
A MIX ACROSS THE VERY FAR NORTH. AT THIS POINT HOWEVER I HAVE JUST
RAIN IN THE FORECAST. THE COOL AND WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREA OF SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS
SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY VFR THOUGH MAY DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES WITH SHRA. WINDS
WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL LIKELY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY BEFORE ADDITIONAL TSRA AND SHRA IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...PUSHING EASTWARD...AFFECTING WESTERN
SITES...KFOD...FIRST. WILL SEE VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DROP TO
MVFR OR IFR AT TIMES WITH PRECIPITATION. HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY FOR
NOW...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LINGERING THROUGH
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CRAWFORD-EMMET-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AWB/FAB
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 231741
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1241 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES...WIND AND PRECIPITATION.
THOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE MOMENT AT H850...MODELS
HAVE CONTINUE TO NAIL CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN KS EARLY TODAY ALONG SFC WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER WIND FIELDS/MOISTURE CHANNEL ALOFT. SOME MOISTURE HAS MADE
IT BACK TO EASTERN OK... AND SUSPECT THAT THIS IS THE SOURCE OF
CURRENT CONVECTION. THIS WILL DRIVE NORTHEAST WITH TIME TODAY AND
FILL IN OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z AS THETAE ADVECTION INCREASES
THROUGH MID MORNING. BEST FORCING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WITH TIME
THROUGH NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SW INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS PRIOR TO
MAIN SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT/THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING...STARTING DAY MILD
WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH...BUT SUSTAINED EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH A GOOD SHARE OF THE DAY NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF US TODAY WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE 60S SOUTH AND 50S
NORTH. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FURTHER PREVENT ANY RAPID WARMING DUE TO
EVAP COOLING DURING THE DAY. FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES TODAY NEARLY NIL
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL TRIM ISO THUNDER BACK TO SHOWERS DUE TO DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. GRADIENT WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. BY LATE MORNING...SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOK
TO BE NEARING OR JUST ABOUT 30 MPH OVER THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE WIND ADV FOR SMALL PORTION
OF THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

STILL DEALING WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THEN THE NEXT ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY
THIS EVENING EXPECT AN EXITING AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST...WITH
THE NEXT MORE ROBUST ROUND OF PRECIP EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION/WAA SETTING UP ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND DIRECTED
RIGHT INTO CENTRAL IA BY 06-09Z THURSDAY. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING ON THE NOSE
OF THE THETA-E RIDGE...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
FIRE TO THE WEST LATER TODAY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA AS THE
SFC LOW SLIDES INTO CENTRAL IA BY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. AS THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOVES EAST THURSDAY...EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN STILL EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK
WAA WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C TO +12C ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A PRETTY DECENT SPRING DAY ACROSS THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH A VERY
POTENT SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SATURDAY. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM TO CLOSE OFF AND BECOME NEARLY STACKED TOWARD
SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION MOVING VERY SLOWLY FROM SE CO AT
12Z SUNDAY TO SOUTH CENTRAL NE BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS PLACES THE STATE
IN AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH IMPULSES ALOFT
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD BRING ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MUCH OF THE STATE BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HARD TO NAIL DOWN THE
TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES...THEREFORE HAVE SOME BROADBRUSH HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN SHOVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
US AND LET THE CIRCULATION SPIN THERE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. THEREFORE
EXPECT AN OVERALL COOLER PERIOD INTO TUESDAY AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WRAPPING BACK INTO THE CWA. OVERALL MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE GENERAL TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE CERTAINTY IS HIGH
THAT SHOULD SEE SOME SORT OF LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR
THE STATE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT IS THE FINER DETAILS
THAT STILL REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN...INCLUDING HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL
WRAP INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. EC IS MUCH COLDER...THAN THE
CANADIAN/GFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE LEFT ALL PRECIP MENTION IN LIQUID
FORM...BUT IF THE EC VERIFIES COULD HAVE SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE
RAIN OR A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREA OF SHRA WITH ISOLATED TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS
SITES THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
PRIMARILY VFR THOUGH MAY DROP TO MVFR AT TIMES WITH SHRA. WINDS
WILL BE STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WILL LIKELY SEE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY BEFORE ADDITIONAL TSRA AND SHRA IS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT...PUSHING EASTWARD...AFFECTING WESTERN
SITES...KFOD...FIRST. WILL SEE VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS DROP TO
MVFR OR IFR AT TIMES WITH PRECIPITATION. HAVE TRENDED THIS WAY FOR
NOW...WITH LOW CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES LINGERING THROUGH
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY THROUGH PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CRAWFORD-EMMET-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...AWB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 231131
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
631 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES...WIND AND PRECIPITATION.
THOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE MOMENT AT H850...MODELS
HAVE CONTINUE TO NAIL CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN KS EARLY TODAY ALONG SFC WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER WIND FIELDS/MOISTURE CHANNEL ALOFT. SOME MOISTURE HAS MADE
IT BACK TO EASTERN OK... AND SUSPECT THAT THIS IS THE SOURCE OF
CURRENT CONVECTION. THIS WILL DRIVE NORTHEAST WITH TIME TODAY AND
FILL IN OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z AS THETAE ADVECTION INCREASES
THROUGH MID MORNING. BEST FORCING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WITH TIME
THROUGH NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SW INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS PRIOR TO
MAIN SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT/THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING...STARTING DAY MILD
WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH...BUT SUSTAINED EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH A GOOD SHARE OF THE DAY NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF US TODAY WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE 60S SOUTH AND 50S
NORTH. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FURTHER PREVENT ANY RAPID WARMING DUE TO
EVAP COOLING DURING THE DAY. FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES TODAY NEARLY NIL
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL TRIM ISO THUNDER BACK TO SHOWERS DUE TO DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. GRADIENT WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. BY LATE MORNING...SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOK
TO BE NEARING OR JUST ABOUT 30 MPH OVER THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE WIND ADV FOR SMALL PORTION
OF THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

STILL DEALING WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THEN THE NEXT ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY
THIS EVENING EXPECT AN EXITING AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST...WITH
THE NEXT MORE ROBUST ROUND OF PRECIP EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION/WAA SETTING UP ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND DIRECTED
RIGHT INTO CENTRAL IA BY 06-09Z THURSDAY. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING ON THE NOSE
OF THE THETA-E RIDGE...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
FIRE TO THE WEST LATER TODAY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA AS THE
SFC LOW SLIDES INTO CENTRAL IA BY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. AS THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOVES EAST THURSDAY...EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN STILL EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK
WAA WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C TO +12C ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A PRETTY DECENT SPRING DAY ACROSS THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH A VERY
POTENT SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SATURDAY. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM TO CLOSE OFF AND BECOME NEARLY STACKED TOWARD
SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION MOVING VERY SLOWLY FROM SE CO AT
12Z SUNDAY TO SOUTH CENTRAL NE BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS PLACES THE STATE
IN AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH IMPULSES ALOFT
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD BRING ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MUCH OF THE STATE BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HARD TO NAIL DOWN THE
TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES...THEREFORE HAVE SOME BROADBRUSH HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN SHOVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
US AND LET THE CIRCULATION SPIN THERE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. THEREFORE
EXPECT AN OVERALL COOLER PERIOD INTO TUESDAY AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WRAPPING BACK INTO THE CWA. OVERALL MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE GENERAL TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE CERTAINTY IS HIGH
THAT SHOULD SEE SOME SORT OF LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR
THE STATE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT IS THE FINER DETAILS
THAT STILL REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN...INCLUDING HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL
WRAP INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. EC IS MUCH COLDER...THAN THE
CANADIAN/GFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE LEFT ALL PRECIP MENTION IN LIQUID
FORM...BUT IF THE EC VERIFIES COULD HAVE SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE
RAIN OR A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...23/12Z
ISSUED AT 628 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

AREA OF SHOWERS HEADING ACROSS THE NETWORK TODAY AND SHOULD BE
EAST OF I35 BY 18Z...EAST OF KALO/KOTM BY 23-00Z. OTHER CONCERN
EARLY WILL BE STRONG WINDS FROM SOUTHEAST TODAY...WITH SUSTAINED
WINDS 20 TO 25KTS MOST AREAS WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30KTS AT TIMES.
DURING 00-06Z MAIN SYSTEM TO ARRIVE WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER
SHOWERS/STORMS LASTING TO END OF PERIOD...RESULTING IN LOWERING
CIGS TO MVFR AND VSBY AT 5SM DURING HEAVIER RAINFALL./REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-EMMET-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 230822
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
322 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

MAIN CHALLENGES TODAY WILL BE TEMPERATURES...WIND AND PRECIPITATION.
THOUGH MOISTURE IS SOMEWHAT LIMITED AT THE MOMENT AT H850...MODELS
HAVE CONTINUE TO NAIL CONVECTION THAT IS DEVELOPING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN KS EARLY TODAY ALONG SFC WARM FRONT AND LEADING EDGE OF
STRONGER WIND FIELDS/MOISTURE CHANNEL ALOFT. SOME MOISTURE HAS MADE
IT BACK TO EASTERN OK... AND SUSPECT THAT THIS IS THE SOURCE OF
CURRENT CONVECTION. THIS WILL DRIVE NORTHEAST WITH TIME TODAY AND
FILL IN OVER OUR AREA BETWEEN 12-18Z AS THETAE ADVECTION INCREASES
THROUGH MID MORNING. BEST FORCING WILL MOVE NORTHEAST WITH TIME
THROUGH NORTHEAST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...BUT
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SW INTO CENTRAL SECTIONS PRIOR TO
MAIN SHORT WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT/THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST TODAY SOMEWHAT CHALLENGING...STARTING DAY MILD
WITH TEMPS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S SOUTH...BUT SUSTAINED EAST
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THROUGH A GOOD SHARE OF THE DAY NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT SOUTH OF US TODAY WILL CAP HIGHS IN THE 60S SOUTH AND 50S
NORTH. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL FURTHER PREVENT ANY RAPID WARMING DUE TO
EVAP COOLING DURING THE DAY. FORECAST MUCAPE VALUES TODAY NEARLY NIL
ACROSS THE AREA AND WILL TRIM ISO THUNDER BACK TO SHOWERS DUE TO DRY
AIRMASS IN PLACE AT THIS TIME. GRADIENT WINDS WILL PICK UP TODAY
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. BY LATE MORNING...SOUTHEAST WINDS LOOK
TO BE NEARING OR JUST ABOUT 30 MPH OVER THE FAR WEST/NORTHWEST
THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. WILL ISSUE WIND ADV FOR SMALL PORTION
OF THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA TODAY.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

STILL DEALING WITH THE TWO MAIN SYSTEMS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
THEN THE NEXT ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY
THIS EVENING EXPECT AN EXITING AREA OF SHOWERS TO THE EAST...WITH
THE NEXT MORE ROBUST ROUND OF PRECIP EXPECTED BY LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION/WAA SETTING UP ACROSS
THE AREA...WITH MOISTURE TRANSPORT VERY IMPRESSIVE AND DIRECTED
RIGHT INTO CENTRAL IA BY 06-09Z THURSDAY. EXPECT SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA THIS EVENING ON THE NOSE
OF THE THETA-E RIDGE...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY BY LATE EVENING
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AS THE LINE OF CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
FIRE TO THE WEST LATER TODAY PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE CWA AS THE
SFC LOW SLIDES INTO CENTRAL IA BY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY. AS THE
ENTIRE SYSTEM SHOVES EAST THURSDAY...EXPECT PRECIP TO TAPER OFF FROM
WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY
CONDITIONS THEN STILL EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WEAK
WAA WITH H85 TEMPS AROUND +10C TO +12C ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD ALLOW
FOR A PRETTY DECENT SPRING DAY ACROSS THE AREA.

ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD THE LATE WEEKEND SYSTEM...WITH A VERY
POTENT SYSTEM DIGGING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST BY SATURDAY. UPPER
LEVEL SYSTEM TO CLOSE OFF AND BECOME NEARLY STACKED TOWARD
SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN CIRCULATION MOVING VERY SLOWLY FROM SE CO AT
12Z SUNDAY TO SOUTH CENTRAL NE BY 12Z MONDAY. THIS PLACES THE STATE
IN AN ACTIVE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN ALOFT...WITH IMPULSES ALOFT
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN UPPER LOW. THIS SHOULD BRING ROUNDS
OF PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO MUCH OF THE STATE BEGINNING SATURDAY
NIGHT...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HARD TO NAIL DOWN THE
TIMING OF THESE IMPULSES...THEREFORE HAVE SOME BROADBRUSH HIGH
CHANCE/LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS THEN SHOVE THE SYSTEM EAST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
REGION WITH BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
US AND LET THE CIRCULATION SPIN THERE FOR A FEW MORE DAYS. THEREFORE
EXPECT AN OVERALL COOLER PERIOD INTO TUESDAY AND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
WRAPPING BACK INTO THE CWA. OVERALL MODELS IN BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE GENERAL TREND WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND THEREFORE CERTAINTY IS HIGH
THAT SHOULD SEE SOME SORT OF LONG DURATION PRECIPITATION EVENT FOR
THE STATE ESPECIALLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. IT IS THE FINER DETAILS
THAT STILL REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN...INCLUDING HOW MUCH COLD AIR WILL
WRAP INTO THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM. EC IS MUCH COLDER...THAN THE
CANADIAN/GFS AT THIS TIME. HAVE LEFT ALL PRECIP MENTION IN LIQUID
FORM...BUT IF THE EC VERIFIES COULD HAVE SOME SNOW MIXING WITH THE
RAIN OR A BRIEF CHANGEOVER TO ALL SNOW BY MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER EASTERN IA WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH AN
INCREASING SELY FLOW OVER THE STATE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO WED EVENING. WIDESPREAD MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BREAK OUT OVER THE NORTH AND EAST ESPECIALLY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. AS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WED NIGHT...AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE KMCW AND
KFOD AREAS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN CIGS BY LATE WED NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THU.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CDT THIS EVENING
FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-EMMET-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...MS APR 14





000
FXUS63 KDMX 230509
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1209 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS LARGELY TO THE WEST.  WITH MOST OF THE NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  TEMPS WILL COOL QUICKLY IN THE EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT WIND.  AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFT 08Z OR SO AHEAD OF A LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
STRETCHING INTO NW IA. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN NOSING A BROAD AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION INTO FAR
WESTERN IOWA ALONG WITH DECENT QG FORCING BY 12Z.  THE PROBLEM FOR
ANY PRECIP HOWEVER DISTINCT LACK OF MOISTURE SHOWN BY THE SOUNDINGS.
AS A RESULT I HAVE PULLED POPS FROM MOST OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD AND
BLENDED IN WITH NEIGHBORS THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

BY 11Z MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE MAINLY POINTING
TOWARDS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/EASTERN NEBRASKA.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS COULD EEK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN 11
AND 12Z BY THIS TIME.  FROM 12Z AND BEYOND THE THETA-E ADVECTION
SHIFTS INTO ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DEEPER
MOISTURE DOES WORK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE A FAIR AMOUNT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.  INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER THOUGH SO WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING
AT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
TOMORROW AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL
ALSO SEE INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND EXPECT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED BUT MAY STILL CRANK OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING
LITTLE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG FROM
THE SOUTH TOMORROW WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RAPIDLY
INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE MARGINALLY CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR BOTH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS BUT REMAIN
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN CLOUDS AND LIFT. HAVE FOREGONE HEADLINES AT
THIS POINT AND WILL LET MID SHIFT EVALUATE FURTHER.

UPPER TROF PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE BULK OF STRONGER CONVECTION WEST OF IOWA DURING THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BEGIN TO BLEED ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
DURING THE EVENING AND INTO MUCH OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...ANY SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL PASS THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS UNDERNEATH THE TROF...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND EAST. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN STRONG BUT FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.

QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY AS A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS IOWA. NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT IOWA BY LATE SATURDAY AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE WEST AND INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. GFS AND EURO HAD INITIALLY KEPT IOWA IN THE
COOL SECTOR WITH THIS STORM AND GENERALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION OR
RAIN. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS ARE NOW BRINGING
THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH WITH EURO SETTING UP WARM FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA BY SUNDAY AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG OR POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY. GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH BUT STILL
MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THEREFORE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN FLUX. IN EITHER CASE...IT APPEARS WET FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION AND THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE LINGERING THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER EASTERN IA WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH AN
INCREASING SELY FLOW OVER THE STATE. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY BY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND CONTINUE INTO WED EVENING. WIDESPREAD MID
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
BREAK OUT OVER THE NORTH AND EAST EXPECIALLY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL. AS LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT APPROACH FROM THE
WEST WED NIGHT...AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE KMCW AND
KFOD AREAS LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...LOW AND COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BY LATE WED NIGHT INTO THU.
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE TO MVFR IN CIGS BY LATE WED NIGHT WITH
IMPROVING CONDITIONS THU.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS APR 14





000
FXUS63 KDMX 222329
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
629 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS LARGELY TO THE WEST.  WITH MOST OF THE NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  TEMPS WILL COOL QUICKLY IN THE EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT WIND.  AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFT 08Z OR SO AHEAD OF A LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
STRETCHING INTO NW IA. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN NOSING A BROAD AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION INTO FAR
WESTERN IOWA ALONG WITH DECENT QG FORCING BY 12Z.  THE PROBLEM FOR
ANY PRECIP HOWEVER DISTINCT LACK OF MOISTURE SHOWN BY THE SOUNDINGS.
AS A RESULT I HAVE PULLED POPS FROM MOST OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD AND
BLENDED IN WITH NEIGHBORS THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

BY 11Z MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE MAINLY POINTING
TOWARDS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/EASTERN NEBRASKA.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS COULD EEK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN 11
AND 12Z BY THIS TIME.  FROM 12Z AND BEYOND THE THETA-E ADVECTION
SHIFTS INTO ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DEEPER
MOISTURE DOES WORK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE A FAIR AMOUNT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.  INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER THOUGH SO WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING
AT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
TOMORROW AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL
ALSO SEE INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND EXPECT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED BUT MAY STILL CRANK OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING
LITTLE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG FROM
THE SOUTH TOMORROW WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RAPIDLY
INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE MARGINALLY CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR BOTH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS BUT REMAIN
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN CLOUDS AND LIFT. HAVE FOREGONE HEADLINES AT
THIS POINT AND WILL LET MID SHIFT EVALUATE FURTHER.

UPPER TROF PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE BULK OF STRONGER CONVECTION WEST OF IOWA DURING THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BEGIN TO BLEED ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
DURING THE EVENING AND INTO MUCH OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...ANY SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL PASS THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS UNDERNEATH THE TROF...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND EAST. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN STRONG BUT FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.

QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY AS A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS IOWA. NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT IOWA BY LATE SATURDAY AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE WEST AND INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. GFS AND EURO HAD INITIALLY KEPT IOWA IN THE
COOL SECTOR WITH THIS STORM AND GENERALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION OR
RAIN. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS ARE NOW BRINGING
THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH WITH EURO SETTING UP WARM FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA BY SUNDAY AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG OR POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY. GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH BUT STILL
MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THEREFORE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN FLUX. IN EITHER CASE...IT APPEARS WET FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION AND THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE LINGERING THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...23/00Z
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER IA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST WITH WINDS
BECOMING SELY OVER NIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY ON
WED. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH IN TO THE STATE AND BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY TO THE NRN
TAFS. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL MOVE INTO IA FROM
THE WEST WED NIGHT AND THU. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE WED NIGHT
AND THU WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING WIDESPREAD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...MS APR 14





000
FXUS63 KDMX 222038
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
338 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

SURFACE HIGH WILL BE PUSHING TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHILE THE UPPER
RIDGE REMAINS LARGELY TO THE WEST.  WITH MOST OF THE NIGHT UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE HIGH NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF SENSIBLE
WEATHER.  TEMPS WILL COOL QUICKLY IN THE EVENING UNDER A CLEAR SKY
AND LIGHT WIND.  AS THE SURFACE HIGH RETREATS TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT
MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFT 08Z OR SO AHEAD OF A LOW
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH AN ATTENDANT WARM FRONT
STRETCHING INTO NW IA. WARM ADVECTION WILL BE INCREASING ACROSS
CENTRAL IOWA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND MODELS HAVE
BEEN CONSISTENT IN NOSING A BROAD AREA OF THETA-E ADVECTION INTO FAR
WESTERN IOWA ALONG WITH DECENT QG FORCING BY 12Z.  THE PROBLEM FOR
ANY PRECIP HOWEVER DISTINCT LACK OF MOISTURE SHOWN BY THE SOUNDINGS.
AS A RESULT I HAVE PULLED POPS FROM MOST OF THE TONIGHT PERIOD AND
BLENDED IN WITH NEIGHBORS THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.

BY 11Z MOISTURE TRANSPORT INCREASES ACROSS THE STATE MAINLY POINTING
TOWARDS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/EASTERN NEBRASKA.  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
STORMS COULD EEK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA BETWEEN 11
AND 12Z BY THIS TIME.  FROM 12Z AND BEYOND THE THETA-E ADVECTION
SHIFTS INTO ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AND DEEPER
MOISTURE DOES WORK INTO THE FAR WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA
SO PRECIP CHANCES WILL INCREASE A FAIR AMOUNT THROUGH THE MORNING
HOURS.  INSTABILITY REMAINS MEAGER THOUGH SO WE ARE LIKELY LOOKING
AT SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE TOWARDS DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 338 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

STRONG WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD
TOMORROW AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW MOVING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. WILL
ALSO SEE INCREASING THETA-E ADVECTION AND EXPECT SOME SCATTERED
SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN THE MORNING. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BE VERY LIMITED BUT MAY STILL CRANK OUT A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS GIVEN THE GOOD LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
ADVECTION. THIS ACTIVITY WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH AND EAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON WITH A GOOD PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA SEEING
LITTLE ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE QUITE STRONG FROM
THE SOUTH TOMORROW WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND RAPIDLY
INCREASING WINDS ABOVE THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL BE MARGINALLY CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR BOTH SUSTAINED AND GUSTS BUT REMAIN
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN CLOUDS AND LIFT. HAVE FOREGONE HEADLINES AT
THIS POINT AND WILL LET MID SHIFT EVALUATE FURTHER.

UPPER TROF PROGRESSES ACROSS THE PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE BULK OF STRONGER CONVECTION WEST OF IOWA DURING THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...THIS WILL BEGIN TO BLEED ACROSS THE MISSOURI RIVER
DURING THE EVENING AND INTO MUCH OF THE CWA BY DAYBREAK ON
THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT...ANY SEVERE CONVECTION APPEARS LIMITED
WITH LIMITED INSTABILITY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL PASS THROUGH
CENTRAL IOWA ON THURSDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWER IN THE
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY DEVELOPS UNDERNEATH THE TROF...ESPECIALLY
NORTH AND EAST. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN STRONG BUT FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT.

QUIET WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF
SATURDAY AS A DRY AIRMASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS IOWA. NEXT
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT IOWA BY LATE SATURDAY AS POTENT
SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE WEST AND INDUCES CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. GFS AND EURO HAD INITIALLY KEPT IOWA IN THE
COOL SECTOR WITH THIS STORM AND GENERALLY ELEVATED CONVECTION OR
RAIN. HOWEVER...LATEST 12Z RUNS OF BOTH MODELS ARE NOW BRINGING
THE SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH WITH EURO SETTING UP WARM FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN IOWA BY SUNDAY AND COULD PRODUCE SOME STRONG OR POSSIBLY
SEVERE CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY. GFS IS NOT AS BULLISH BUT STILL
MORE ACTIVE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AND THEREFORE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM REMAINS IN FLUX. IN EITHER CASE...IT APPEARS WET FROM
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER SYSTEM PROGRESSES INTO THE
REGION AND THEN SLOWLY MEANDERS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL INTO THE EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE LINGERING THREAT
OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS IOWA EXITING EASTERN IOWA BY 12Z.  A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT INTO NW IA WILL
AFFECT LOCATIONS AFT 06Z.  WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO A SRLY
DIRECTION FM KDSM AND KMCW WEST AND BY 12Z ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.  WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE MORNING.  AS WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MOVES IN
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS
TOWARDS 18Z.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...COGIL
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 221723
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1222 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR SETTLING INTO THE AREA TODAY. SECONDARY
COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING NORTHERN IA AT 04Z THIS EVENING AND WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR FROM MN/SD WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ALOFT...POCKET OF H850 TEMPS OF 5C TO -
5C TO OUR NORTH...THOUGH TRAJECTORY WILL KEEP COOLEST AIR NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH IOWA TODAY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIRMASS...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW
FAIR WX CLOUDS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING. BY
LATE AFTERNOON H850 TEMPS RECOVER TO 3C NORTHEAST TO ABOUT 5C WEST.
THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH HIGHS TO NEAR THE 60F MARK NORTHEAST AND THE
MID 60S ACROSS THE WEST. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MORNING BUT THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN SECTIONS BY LATE
DAY. OTHERWISE...UPSTREAM WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO THROW SOME
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION AS WEAK WARM FRONT
NOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL NE BEGINS TO PROVIDE SOME
RETURN LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

TWO MAIN PERIODS OF NOTE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH THE FIRST
BEING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND THE SECOND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY WILL HAVE AN AREA OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP IN
ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SOME THETA-E ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...WITH MAJORITY OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS ORIENTED MORE TO THE WEST/NORTH OF THE
CWA...AND JUST STARTING TO ANGLE INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE KEPT MAJORITY OF TONIGHT DRY WITH JUST
INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN AREA OF STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION AND AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS BECOME ORIENTED INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.
NAM TRYING TO SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
LATE TONIGHT AND TRACKING IT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND HAVE
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...BUT EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE WITH THE PUSH OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BREAK FROM
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT PUSH OF ENERGY ALOFT TO
SWING THROUGH LATER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW CENTER/COLD FRONT CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL NE/WRN KS BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. SFC LOW TO LIFT
AND DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES INTO NW/CNTRL IA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND COOL FRONT SWING THROUGH AND THE ENERGY
ALOFT LIFTS THROUGH THE CWA...EXPECT GREATEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SYSTEM TO PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING WITH PRECIP
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THU AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE STATE.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO EJECT FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL US SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
EC/GFS HAVE BEEN IN BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT IN THE LATEST MODEL SUITE
GFS BECOMING SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM
THAN THE EC/CANADIAN. UPPER TROUGH TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
BECOMING CENTERED AROUND THE KS/OK AREA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM INTO IOWA. MAIN WARM FRONT TO REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE...WITH MAINLY ELEVATED OVERRUNNING SITUATION
OCCURRING ACROSS IOWA. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE A SHARP
CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF AN PRECIPITATION AREA AND
WILL LIKELY DELAY ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION AS IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO SATURATE THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE EC/CANADIAN SHOWING A DRIER
SOLUTION WITH THE MAJORITY OF HEAVIER PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE SFC WARM FRONT. THEREFORE HAVE
TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR SATURDAY COMPARED TO
THE GUIDANCE GRIDS WHILE THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL THINK THESE
COULD BE OVERDONE ON THE NORTHERN/EASTERN EDGES WITH MAJORITY OF
PRECIP MOST LIKELY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL
CWA. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE CWA SO HAVE A COOLING
TREND FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MUCH OF H85 TEMPS
JUST BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH SFC
TEMPS INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL RANGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL TRENDED TEMPS DOWNWARD FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1222 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS ACROSS IOWA EXITING EASTERN IOWA BY 12Z.  A
SURFACE LOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT INTO NW IA WILL
AFFECT LOCATIONS AFT 06Z.  WINDS WILL SWITCH AROUND TO A SRLY
DIRECTION FM KDSM AND KMCW WEST AND BY 12Z ALL TAF LOCATIONS WILL
SEE A SOUTHERLY DIRECTION.  WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE TO 15 TO 25KTS
THROUGH THE MORNING.  AS WARMER AND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MOVES IN
SHOWERS AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS TAF LOCATIONS
TOWARDS 18Z.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 221057
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
557 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR SETTLING INTO THE AREA TODAY. SECONDARY
COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING NORTHERN IA AT 04Z THIS EVENING AND WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR FROM MN/SD WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ALOFT...POCKET OF H850 TEMPS OF 5C TO -
5C TO OUR NORTH...THOUGH TRAJECTORY WILL KEEP COOLEST AIR NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH IOWA TODAY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIRMASS...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW
FAIR WX CLOUDS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING. BY
LATE AFTERNOON H850 TEMPS RECOVER TO 3C NORTHEAST TO ABOUT 5C WEST.
THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH HIGHS TO NEAR THE 60F MARK NORTHEAST AND THE
MID 60S ACROSS THE WEST. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MORNING BUT THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN SECTIONS BY LATE
DAY. OTHERWISE...UPSTREAM WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO THROW SOME
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION AS WEAK WARM FRONT
NOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL NE BEGINS TO PROVIDE SOME
RETURN LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

TWO MAIN PERIODS OF NOTE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH THE FIRST
BEING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND THE SECOND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY WILL HAVE AN AREA OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP IN
ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SOME THETA-E ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...WITH MAJORITY OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS ORIENTED MORE TO THE WEST/NORTH OF THE
CWA...AND JUST STARTING TO ANGLE INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE KEPT MAJORITY OF TONIGHT DRY WITH JUST
INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN AREA OF STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION AND AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS BECOME ORIENTED INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.
NAM TRYING TO SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
LATE TONIGHT AND TRACKING IT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. GIVEN LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND HAVE
SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FOR THIS
POSSIBILITY...BUT EXPECT THE BETTER CHANCES TO BE WITH THE PUSH OF
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BREAK FROM
ACTIVITY POSSIBLY IN THE AFTERNOON AS NEXT PUSH OF ENERGY ALOFT TO
SWING THROUGH LATER INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW CENTER/COLD FRONT CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL NE/WRN KS BY LATE WED AFTERNOON. SFC LOW TO LIFT
AND DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES INTO NW/CNTRL IA BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND COOL FRONT SWING THROUGH AND THE ENERGY
ALOFT LIFTS THROUGH THE CWA...EXPECT GREATEST CHANCES FOR
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SYSTEM TO PUSH EAST OF
THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING WITH PRECIP
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THU AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
BUILDS INTO THE STATE.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO EJECT FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL US SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
EC/GFS HAVE BEEN IN BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT IN THE LATEST MODEL SUITE
GFS BECOMING SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM
THAN THE EC/CANADIAN. UPPER TROUGH TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
BECOMING CENTERED AROUND THE KS/OK AREA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM INTO IOWA. MAIN WARM FRONT TO REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE...WITH MAINLY ELEVATED OVERRUNNING SITUATION
OCCURRING ACROSS IOWA. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE A SHARP
CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF AN PRECIPITATION AREA AND
WILL LIKELY DELAY ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION AS IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO SATURATE THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE EC/CANADIAN SHOWING A DRIER
SOLUTION WITH THE MAJORITY OF HEAVIER PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE SFC WARM FRONT. THEREFORE HAVE
TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR SATURDAY COMPARED TO
THE GUIDANCE GRIDS WHILE THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL THINK THESE
COULD BE OVERDONE ON THE NORTHERN/EASTERN EDGES WITH MAJORITY OF
PRECIP MOST LIKELY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL
CWA. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE CWA SO HAVE A COOLING
TREND FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MUCH OF H85 TEMPS
JUST BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH SFC
TEMPS INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL RANGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL TRENDED TEMPS DOWNWARD FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 556 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

FEW CONCERNS THIS PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING INTO AREA
TODAY. NORTH WINDS WILL MIX OUT EAST OF I35 AND AFFECT EASTERN TAF
SITES THIS MORNING WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 15KT AT TIMES. OTHERWISE...
SLOW INCREASE OF HIGH TO MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH 00Z WEST AND
AFT 00Z EAST TONIGHT. TOWARD END OF PERIOD SHOWERS APPROACHING
KFOD NEARER THE IA/NE BORDER AND SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASE. CIGS
LATER TODAY EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH END OF PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 220819
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
319 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER AIR SETTLING INTO THE AREA TODAY. SECONDARY
COLD FRONT JUST ENTERING NORTHERN IA AT 04Z THIS EVENING AND WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST REMAINDER OF OVERNIGHT. COOLER AIR FROM MN/SD WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ALOFT...POCKET OF H850 TEMPS OF 5C TO -
5C TO OUR NORTH...THOUGH TRAJECTORY WILL KEEP COOLEST AIR NORTHEAST
OF THE REGION AS THE HIGH BUILDS SOUTHEAST THROUGH IOWA TODAY. BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW DRY AIRMASS...BUT SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE A FEW
FAIR WX CLOUDS TODAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME DAYTIME HEATING. BY
LATE AFTERNOON H850 TEMPS RECOVER TO 3C NORTHEAST TO ABOUT 5C WEST.
THIS SHOULD HELP PUSH HIGHS TO NEAR THE 60F MARK NORTHEAST AND THE
MID 60S ACROSS THE WEST. LIGHT NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN IN THE
MORNING BUT THEN BECOME MORE SOUTHEAST OVER WESTERN SECTIONS BY LATE
DAY. OTHERWISE...UPSTREAM WAVE FOR WEDNESDAY EXPECTED TO THROW SOME
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS BACK INTO THE REGION AS WEAK WARM FRONT
NOW OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH CENTRAL NE BEGINS TO PROVIDE SOME
RETURN LIFT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 319 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2014

TWO MAIN PERIODS OF NOTE THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED WITH THE FIRST
BEING WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...AND THE SECOND OVER THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. INITIALLY WILL HAVE AN AREA OF SFC
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING EAST TONIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW SETTING UP IN
ADVANCE OF AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT RANGE
OF THE ROCKIES IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SOME THETA-E ADVECTION PUSHING INTO THE
WESTERN/NORTHERN CWA LATE TONIGHT...WITH MAJORITY OF MOISTURE
TRANSPORT IN THE LOW LEVELS ORIENTED MORE TO THE WEST/NORTH OF THE
CWA...AND JUST STARTING TO ANGLE INTO THE WESTERN CWA BY 12Z
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE KEPT MAJORITY OF TONIGHT DRY WITH JUST
INCREASING CLOUD COVER...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE FAR WEST LATE. EXPECT AN AREA OF LIGHT
SHOWERS/POSSIBLY ISOLATED THUNDER TO MOVE THROUGH THE NORTHERN CWA
WEDNESDAY MORNING IN AREA OF STRONGER THETA-E ADVECTION AND AS
MOISTURE TRANSPORT VECTORS BECOME ORIENTED INTO NORTH CENTRAL IOWA.
NAM TRYING TO SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS ACROSS EASTERN NEBRASKA
LATE TONIGHT AND TRACKING IT EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CWA WEDNESDAY
MORNING. GIVEN LOCATION OF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND HAVE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FOR THIS POSSIBILITY...BUT EXPECT THE
BETTER CHANCES TO BE WITH THE PUSH OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. EXPECT A BREAK FROM ACTIVITY POSSIBLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS NEXT PUSH OF ENERGY ALOFT TO SWING THROUGH LATER INTO
WEDNESDAY EVENING/NIGHT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE SFC LOW
CENTER/COLD FRONT CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL NE/WRN KS BY LATE WED
AFTERNOON. SFC LOW TO LIFT AND DEEPEN AS IT PUSHES INTO NW/CNTRL IA
BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS THE SFC TROUGH AXIS AND COOL FRONT SWING
THROUGH AND THE ENERGY ALOFT LIFTS THROUGH THE CWA...EXPECT GREATEST
CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA BY
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SYSTEM TO PUSH EAST
OF THE AREA THURSDAY...WITH LINGERING CHANCES OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDER EXPECTED ACROSS THE CWA THURSDAY MORNING WITH PRECIP
CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST BY THU AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS THEN
EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS
INTO THE STATE.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO THE WEEKEND WITH THE LONG WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED
TO EJECT FROM THE WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL US SATURDAY INTO MONDAY.
EC/GFS HAVE BEEN IN BETTER AGREEMENT...BUT IN THE LATEST MODEL SUITE
GFS BECOMING SLIGHTLY FASTER AND MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM
THAN THE EC/CANADIAN. UPPER TROUGH TO EJECT INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SUNDAY BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED...WITH AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
BECOMING CENTERED AROUND THE KS/OK AREA WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM INTO IOWA. MAIN WARM FRONT TO REMAIN TO THE
SOUTH OF THE STATE...WITH MAINLY ELEVATED OVERRUNNING SITUATION
OCCURRING ACROSS IOWA. BIGGEST ISSUE WILL BE THE STRONG
NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY FLOW OF A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
SITUATED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL LIKELY CREATE A SHARP
CUTOFF ON THE NORTHERN/EASTERN EDGE OF AN PRECIPITATION AREA AND
WILL LIKELY DELAY ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION AS IT WILL TAKE SOME
TIME TO SATURATE THE LOWEST LEVELS. THE EC/CANADIAN SHOWING A DRIER
SOLUTION WITH THE MAJORITY OF HEAVIER PRECIP EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE CWA CLOSER TO THE SFC WARM FRONT. THEREFORE HAVE
TRIMMED BACK POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA FOR SATURDAY COMPARED TO
THE GUIDANCE GRIDS WHILE THE LOW LEVELS MOISTEN...WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. STILL THINK THESE
COULD BE OVERDONE ON THE NORTHERN/EASTERN EDGES WITH MAJORITY OF
PRECIP MOST LIKELY CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN AND POSSIBLY CENTRAL
CWA. COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE CWA SO HAVE A COOLING
TREND FOR SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH MUCH OF H85 TEMPS
JUST BELOW FREEZING BY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS SHOULD PUSH SFC
TEMPS INTO THE 10 TO 20 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL RANGE BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OVERALL TRENDED TEMPS DOWNWARD FOR THE WEEKEND...WITH THE
COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE AND POSSIBILITY OF PRECIP/CLOUD COVER.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES INTO TUE WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING NLY WINDS AS CURRENT
NE/DAKOTAS SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME ELY OR
SELY LATE AS HIGH DEPARTS AND MID CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...BEERENDS
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 220449
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1149 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SURFACE FRONT CROSSING FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL QUICKLY
DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS PRECEDING THE FRONT...
BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST QUICKLY WITH THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE STATE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY.  THE GUSTY WINDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP NICELY AS WELL IN
THE DRIER AIRMASS AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN FAVORED NORTHERN
LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE NISHNA VALLEYS IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PROVIDING FOR A RELATIVELY COOLER AND
DRY DAY.

LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CANADA DEVELOPS AN
INVERTED TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. BY LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER EASTERN IOWA AND MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST. ALL OF THE
MODELS KEEP THE INSTABILITY WELL WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z THEN
SPREAD IT ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF
THETA-E ADVECTION THAT PUSHES ACROSS IOWA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
SOME QC FORCING SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AT THIS POINT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
LATER...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE BETTER INSTABILITY
ARRIVES. THE CAVEAT THEN IS THAT THE BEST SHEAR PROGRESSES TO THE
EAST BY THAT TIME. LOCATION OF ANY SEVERE THREAT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN BUT IT WOULD APPEAR WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WOULD BE THE BEST TIME.

BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE LOW MOVES OFF INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. THE EURO KEEPS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH NEAR EASTERN IOWA AND
SOME LINGERING PRECIP POSSIBLE...MAINLY FAR NORTHEAST BUT I HAVE
KEPT OUR CWA DRY.

THERE ARE STILL BIG DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. THE GFS REALLY AMPLIFIES A RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG LOW DIGS INTO THE SW U.S. THE EURO IS
NOT AS AS STRONG WITH THE FEATURES AND MORE PROGRESSIVE...SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT THE EURO IS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND PRECIP WHILE THE GFS REMAINS MORE
FOCUSED WITH THE DEEPER TROUGH. TO ME THE GFS SEEMS TOO
EXAGGERATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW AND AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE. I
LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE BUT
SATURDAY COULD VERY WELL BE DRY IF THE GFS VERIFIES. BOTH MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HOLD ON TO THEIR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO
THE EURO IS WETTER THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH ARE COOL. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE I KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY
IT WONT BE RAINING THE WHOLE TIME BUT THE MODELS ARE TOO FAR APART
TO ATTEMPT TIMING AT THIS POINT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT UP NORTH WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AND ANY PRECIP COULD BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLY EVEN CHANGING BRIEFLY TO SNOW. WE WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...22/06Z
ISSUED AT 1149 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE VFR THROUGH THE ENTIRE PERIOD. EXPECT CLEAR
SKIES INTO TUE WITH GRADUALLY DECREASING NLY WINDS AS CURRENT
NE/DAKOTAS SURFACE HIGH APPROACHES. WINDS WILL THEN BECOME ELY OR
SELY LATE AS HIGH DEPARTS AND MID CLOUDS BEGIN INCREASING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 212343
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
643 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SURFACE FRONT CROSSING FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL QUICKLY
DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS PRECEDING THE FRONT...
BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST QUICKLY WITH THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE STATE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY.  THE GUSTY WINDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP NICELY AS WELL IN
THE DRIER AIRMASS AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN FAVORED NORTHERN
LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE NISHNA VALLEYS IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PROVIDING FOR A RELATIVELY COOLER AND
DRY DAY.

LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CANADA DEVELOPS AN
INVERTED TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. BY LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER EASTERN IOWA AND MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST. ALL OF THE
MODELS KEEP THE INSTABILITY WELL WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z THEN
SPREAD IT ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF
THETA-E ADVECTION THAT PUSHES ACROSS IOWA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
SOME QC FORCING SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AT THIS POINT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
LATER...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE BETTER INSTABILITY
ARRIVES. THE CAVEAT THEN IS THAT THE BEST SHEAR PROGRESSES TO THE
EAST BY THAT TIME. LOCATION OF ANY SEVERE THREAT IS STILL
UNCERTAIN BUT IT WOULD APPEAR WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY
THURSDAY WOULD BE THE BEST TIME.

BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE LOW MOVES OFF INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. THE EURO KEEPS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH NEAR EASTERN IOWA AND
SOME LINGERING PRECIP POSSIBLE...MAINLY FAR NORTHEAST BUT I HAVE
KEPT OUR CWA DRY.

THERE ARE STILL BIG DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. THE GFS REALLY AMPLIFIES A RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG LOW DIGS INTO THE SW U.S. THE EURO IS
NOT AS AS STRONG WITH THE FEATURES AND MORE PROGRESSIVE...SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT THE EURO IS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND PRECIP WHILE THE GFS REMAINS MORE
FOCUSED WITH THE DEEPER TROUGH. TO ME THE GFS SEEMS TOO
EXAGGERATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW AND AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE. I
LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE BUT
SATURDAY COULD VERY WELL BE DRY IF THE GFS VERIFIES. BOTH MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HOLD ON TO THEIR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO
THE EURO IS WETTER THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH ARE COOL. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE I KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY
IT WONT BE RAINING THE WHOLE TIME BUT THE MODELS ARE TOO FAR APART
TO ATTEMPT TIMING AT THIS POINT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT UP NORTH WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AND ANY PRECIP COULD BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLY EVEN CHANGING BRIEFLY TO SNOW. WE WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...22/00Z
ISSUED AT 643 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

CLOUDS WILL SOON EXIT KOTM LEAVING BEHIND CLEAR SKIES FOR ALL
SITES INTO THE NIGHT. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED INTO TUE
EXPECT FOR HIGH BASED VFR CLOUDS VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD WEST.
WIND GUSTS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET WITH LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN LOCATIONS AFTER SURFACE RIDGE PASSAGE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 212049
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
349 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SURFACE FRONT CROSSING FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL QUICKLY
DEPART TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.  WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS IN THE INSTABILITY AXIS PRECEDING THE FRONT...
BUT THIS ACTIVITY WILL EXIT TO THE SOUTHEAST QUICKLY WITH THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL ENTER THE STATE FOR THE OVERNIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD SUBSIDENCE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY.  THE GUSTY WINDS FROM THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS THE
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP NICELY AS WELL IN
THE DRIER AIRMASS AND HAVE UNDERCUT GUIDANCE IN FAVORED NORTHERN
LOCATIONS AS WELL AS THE NISHNA VALLEYS IN THE WEST.

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISSUED AT 322 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT THERE WILL BE AN UPPER RIDGE THAT WILL
MOVE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST PROVIDING FOR A RELATIVELY COOLER AND
DRY DAY.

LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT TO THE EAST AS A STRONG UPPER LOW OVER CANADA DEVELOPS AN
INVERTED TROUGH THAT DIGS INTO THE PLAINS. BY LATE IN THE DAY
WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER EASTERN IOWA AND MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST. ALL OF THE
MODELS KEEP THE INSTABILITY WELL WEST OF THE CWA THROUGH 00Z THEN
SPREAD IT ACROSS THE STATE OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF
THETA-E ADVECTION THAT PUSHES ACROSS IOWA ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH
SOME QC FORCING SO THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SHOWERS OR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY
BUT AT THIS POINT ANY SEVERE POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
LATER...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WHEN THE BETTER INSTABILITYARRIVES.
THE CAVEAT THEN IS THAT THE BEST SHEAR PROGRESSES TO THE EAST BY
THAT TIME. LOCATION OF ANY SEVERE THREAT IS STILL UNCERTAIN BUT IT
WOULD APPEAR WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO EARLY THURSDAY WOULD BE THE
BEST TIME.

BY LATE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THE LOW MOVES OFF INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH A RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST. THE EURO KEEPS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH NEAR EASTERN IOWA AND
SOME LINGERING PRECIP POSSIBLE...MAINLY FAR NORTHEAST BUT I HAVE
KEPT OUR CWA DRY.

THERE ARE STILL BIG DIFFERENCES WITH THE HANDLING OF THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. THE GFS REALLY AMPLIFIES A RIDGE OVER THE MIDWEST AND
NORTHERN PLAINS AS A STRONG LOW DIGS INTO THE SW U.S. THE EURO IS
NOT AS AS STRONG WITH THE FEATURES AND MORE PROGRESSIVE...SIMILAR
TO YESTERDAY. AS A RESULT THE EURO IS FAR MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH
THE ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND PRECIP WHILE THE GFS REMAINS MORE
FOCUSED WITH THE DEEPER TROUGH. TO ME THE GFS SEEMS TOO
EXAGGERATED WITH THE DEEPENING LOW AND AMPLIFYING THE RIDGE. I
LEFT LOW CHANCE POPS IN FOR SATURDAY FOR CONSISTENCY SAKE BUT
SATURDAY COULD VERY WELL BE DRY IF THE GFS VERIFIES. BOTH MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS HOLD ON TO THEIR SOLUTIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND SO
THE EURO IS WETTER THAN THE GFS BUT BOTH ARE COOL. WITH LOW
CONFIDENCE I KEPT CHANCE POPS GOING THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY
IT WONT BE RAINING THE WHOLE TIME BUT THE MODELS ARE TOO FAR APART
TO ATTEMPT TIMING AT THIS POINT. LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT UP NORTH WILL BE COLD ENOUGH AND ANY PRECIP COULD BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX POSSIBLY EVEN CHANGING BRIEFLY TO SNOW. WE WILL NEED
TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE WEEKEND SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WILL EXIT INTO ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KOTM WILL DEPART WITH
THE FRONT AS WELL. SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL GIVE WAY
TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS BY THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL IOWA WITH THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...COGIL
LONG TERM...FAB
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 211805
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
105 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

STUBBORN COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SWING THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MORNING. FRONT LOOKS TO CREEP INTO
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 14-15Z AND
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND CLEAR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND 00Z TUESDAY OR SLIGHTLY SOONER. LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER
SREF/GFS/ECMWF WRT TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY. 21.05Z HRRR IS A
LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND THE 21.03Z HOPWRF IS
LIGHTER ON THE COVERAGE. REGARDLESS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE TWO
FOR POPS/WX TRENDS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...THEN THE 21.03Z
SREF/21.00Z HIRES-ARW/NMM FOR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NEBRASKA. WEAK AND BROAD LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD THIS COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE TODAY BUT ENOUGH AVAILABLE TO KEEP
MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE BULK OF THE HIGHER POPS OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH 12-14Z BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING. BELIEVE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE PAST
18-20Z OR BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HAVE NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND MENTIONED ACROSS THE NORTH AS
SHOULD SEE THE CAA DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO +4C TO +6C BY 18Z IN THE NORTH.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS ATOP THE
MIXED LAYER INCREASING TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
FILTERS INTO THE STATE AS WELL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST. RH VALUES DECREASE TO
NEAR 25 PERCENT ACROSS A SMALL WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA.
THOUGH AN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY...HELD OFF ON RED FLAG
WARNING DUE TO CRITERIA NOT BEING MET WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FEW CONCERNS. SYSTEM ON THE WAY OUT BY 00Z
TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW OVER NORTHERN MN DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. DESPITE WARM TEMPS THE PAST FEW DAYS...
MORNING LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES
AND A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. LITTLE MIXING
TO PROMOTE MUCH WARMING OTHER THAN SUNSHINE...SO WILL STICK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST AND MID 60S ACROSS THE WEST. MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF UPSTREAM WAVE AND EXPECTED WARM AIR
ADVECTION/CLOUDS AND APPROACHING SHOWERS FOR WED. OVERALL...INCREASE
IN CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE DAY WEST TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS NEARING THE
WESTERN BORDER BY 12Z. THOUGH THUNDER MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NE...DRY AIR OVER IOWA WILL COOL AND DIMINISH INSTABILITY
WHEN INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES. MODELS SHOW LITTLE
INSTABILITY UNTIL AFTERNOON WED AND THAT AGAIN IS LESS THAN
YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. THUS...HAVE TRIMMED AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
TO ISO WEST IN THE MORNING AND ISO EAST/SCT FAR WEST IN THE PM HOURS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FIRST REAL SURGE OF THETAE ADVECTION. AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION...CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM HAS
LESSENED SLIGHTLY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GENERAL TRENDS SIMILAR...
BUT DETAILS DIFFER. OVERALL THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE AREA UNTIL NEARER 00Z THUR...THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO
INCREASING AGAIN FROM LATE MORNING THUR THROUGH 00Z FRI. STILL SOME
CONCERNS ABOUT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS
WED NIGHT AS SOME BULK SHEAR COULD AID SVR POTENTIAL. BOTH THE
00Z GFS AND THE 12Z/NEW 00Z EURO NOW SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS IA NEARLY EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA BY
18Z THUR...KEEPING THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SVR POTENTIAL EAST OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL BUT OVERALL CHANCES WOULD REMAIN CONDITIONAL ON ANY
BETTER ALIGNMENT OF FORCING AND STRONGER INSTABILITY THURSDAY.
BEYOND THUR AFTERNOON...MORE UNCERTAINTY IS ARISING IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MODELS HANDLING THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH DIFFERING SPEED THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO A
SECONDARY H500 SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CANADA POTENTIALLY PHASING WITH
THE DEPARTING H500 LOW. BOTH THE GEM/EURO TAKE THE FIRST SYSTEM
EAST QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH PHASING WHILE THE GFS HOLDS ON
TO A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST INTO MN. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER WEST
RIDGE AXIS OVER CANADA THAT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND DRIVES THE JET STREAM FARTHER SOUTH...DIRECTLY NEXT WEEKENDS
STORM SOUTH OF IOWA. THE GEM/EURO SHOW ONLY A SLIGHT DELAY IN
TIMING AND STILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW THE GFS SHOWS TOO DRASTIC A CHANGE FOR SUCH A SMALL H500
FEATURE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL CUT BACK ON POP CHANCE AT ONSET
OF PRECIP EVENT NEXT SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL KEEP POP INCREASING
WITH TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL HAVE EVEN GREATER UNCERTAINTY
NOW...AS TIED TO CHANGES IN EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF WEEKEND UPPER
AIR PATTERN AND STORM TRACK. NEWEST 21/00Z EURO STILL KEEPS TREND
OF WET WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. OVERALL
THE EURO TENDS TO PERFORM MORE CONSISTENTLY AFTER FCST 120 HOURS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD GEM/EURO SOLUTIONS OF WETTER WEATHER SAT/SUN.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AFDS...THERE IS A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL OF ENERGY STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC EAST TO
THE PLAINS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR INCLEMENT WEATHER HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...21/18Z
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT MON APR 21 2014

COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA WILL EXIT INTO ILLINOIS AND
MISSOURI BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING SOME THIS EVENING AS MIXING DECREASES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF KOTM WILL DEPART WITH
THE FRONT AS WELL. SCATTERED AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS WILL GIVE WAY
TO WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIIONS BY THIS EVENING ACROSS ALL OF
CENTRAL IOWA WITH THESE CONDITIONS PERSISTING FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 211152
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
652 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

...UPDATED AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

STUBBORN COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SWING THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MORNING. FRONT LOOKS TO CREEP INTO
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 14-15Z AND
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND CLEAR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND 00Z TUESDAY OR SLIGHTLY SOONER. LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER
SREF/GFS/ECMWF WRT TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY. 21.05Z HRRR IS A
LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND THE 21.03Z HOPWRF IS
LIGHTER ON THE COVERAGE. REGARDLESS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE TWO
FOR POPS/WX TRENDS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...THEN THE 21.03Z
SREF/21.00Z HIRES-ARW/NMM FOR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NEBRASKA. WEAK AND BROAD LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD THIS COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE TODAY BUT ENOUGH AVAILABLE TO KEEP
MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE BULK OF THE HIGHER POPS OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH 12-14Z BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING. BELIEVE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE PAST
18-20Z OR BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HAVE NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND MENTIONED ACROSS THE NORTH AS
SHOULD SEE THE CAA DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO +4C TO +6C BY 18Z IN THE NORTH.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS ATOP THE
MIXED LAYER INCREASING TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
FILTERS INTO THE STATE AS WELL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST. RH VALUES DECREASE TO
NEAR 25 PERCENT ACROSS A SMALL WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA.
THOUGH AN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY...HELD OFF ON RED FLAG
WARNING DUE TO CRITERIA NOT BEING MET WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FEW CONCERNS. SYSTEM ON THE WAY OUT BY 00Z
TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW OVER NORTHERN MN DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. DESPITE WARM TEMPS THE PAST FEW DAYS...
MORNING LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES
AND A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. LITTLE MIXING
TO PROMOTE MUCH WARMING OTHER THAN SUNSHINE...SO WILL STICK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST AND MID 60S ACROSS THE WEST. MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF UPSTREAM WAVE AND EXPECTED WARM AIR
ADVECTION/CLOUDS AND APPROACHING SHOWERS FOR WED. OVERALL...INCREASE
IN CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE DAY WEST TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS NEARING THE
WESTERN BORDER BY 12Z. THOUGH THUNDER MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NE...DRY AIR OVER IOWA WILL COOL AND DIMINISH INSTABILITY
WHEN INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES. MODELS SHOW LITTLE
INSTABILITY UNTIL AFTERNOON WED AND THAT AGAIN IS LESS THAN
YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. THUS...HAVE TRIMMED AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
TO ISO WEST IN THE MORNING AND ISO EAST/SCT FAR WEST IN THE PM HOURS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FIRST REAL SURGE OF THETAE ADVECTION. AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION...CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM HAS
LESSENED SLIGHTLY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GENERAL TRENDS SIMILAR...
BUT DETAILS DIFFER. OVERALL THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE AREA UNTIL NEARER 00Z THUR...THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO
INCREASING AGAIN FROM LATE MORNING THUR THROUGH 00Z FRI. STILL SOME
CONCERNS ABOUT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS
WED NIGHT AS SOME BULK SHEAR COULD AID SVR POTENTIAL. BOTH THE
00Z GFS AND THE 12Z/NEW 00Z EURO NOW SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS IA NEARLY EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA BY
18Z THUR...KEEPING THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SVR POTENTIAL EAST OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL BUT OVERALL CHANCES WOULD REMAIN CONDITIONAL ON ANY
BETTER ALIGNMENT OF FORCING AND STRONGER INSTABILITY THURSDAY.
BEYOND THUR AFTERNOON...MORE UNCERTAINTY IS ARISING IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MODELS HANDLING THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH DIFFERING SPEED THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO A
SECONDARY H500 SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CANADA POTENTIALLY PHASING WITH
THE DEPARTING H500 LOW. BOTH THE GEM/EURO TAKE THE FIRST SYSTEM
EAST QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH PHASING WHILE THE GFS HOLDS ON
TO A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST INTO MN. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER WEST
RIDGE AXIS OVER CANADA THAT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND DRIVES THE JET STREAM FARTHER SOUTH...DIRECTLY NEXT WEEKENDS
STORM SOUTH OF IOWA. THE GEM/EURO SHOW ONLY A SLIGHT DELAY IN
TIMING AND STILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW THE GFS SHOWS TOO DRASTIC A CHANGE FOR SUCH A SMALL H500
FEATURE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL CUT BACK ON POP CHANCE AT ONSET
OF PRECIP EVENT NEXT SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL KEEP POP INCREASING
WITH TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL HAVE EVEN GREATER UNCERTAINTY
NOW...AS TIED TO CHANGES IN EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF WEEKEND UPPER
AIR PATTERN AND STORM TRACK. NEWEST 21/00Z EURO STILL KEEPS TREND
OF WET WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. OVERALL
THE EURO TENDS TO PERFORM MORE CONSISTENTLY AFTER FCST 120 HOURS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD GEM/EURO SOLUTIONS OF WETTER WEATHER SAT/SUN.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AFDS...THERE IS A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL OF ENERGY STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC EAST TO
THE PLAINS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR INCLEMENT WEATHER HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...21/12Z
ISSUED AT 650 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE...BUT LOW CONFIDENCE WITH MENTIONING AS THEY WILL
HAVE A SHORT DURATION. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE
STATE AND CLEARS SKIES THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
INCREASED WINDS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...PODRAZIK





000
FXUS63 KDMX 210843
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
343 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

STUBBORN COLD FRONT WILL FINALLY SWING THROUGH THE STATE
TODAY AND BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
FORECAST AREA DURING MUCH OF THE MORNING. FRONT LOOKS TO CREEP INTO
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA BY AROUND 14-15Z AND
CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST AND CLEAR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA BY
AROUND 00Z TUESDAY OR SLIGHTLY SOONER. LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER
SREF/GFS/ECMWF WRT TO WINDS AND TEMPERATURES TODAY. 21.05Z HRRR IS A
LITTLE TOO FAST WITH THE PRECIP MOVING EAST AND THE 21.03Z HOPWRF IS
LIGHTER ON THE COVERAGE. REGARDLESS...UTILIZED A BLEND OF THE TWO
FOR POPS/WX TRENDS THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY...THEN THE 21.03Z
SREF/21.00Z HIRES-ARW/NMM FOR TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST IOWA/SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA WITH
COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO NEBRASKA. WEAK AND BROAD LARGE
SCALE FORCING AHEAD THIS COLD FRONT AS WELL AS ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING.
INSTABILITY NOT IMPRESSIVE TODAY BUT ENOUGH AVAILABLE TO KEEP
MENTION OF THUNDER. HAVE BULK OF THE HIGHER POPS OVER WESTERN AND
NORTHERN IOWA THROUGH 12-14Z BEFORE SHIFTING FURTHER SOUTHEAST LATE
THIS MORNING. BELIEVE MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE PAST
18-20Z OR BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

HAVE NON-DIURNAL TEMPERATURE TREND MENTIONED ACROSS THE NORTH AS
SHOULD SEE THE CAA DEVELOP LATE THIS MORNING AND INCREASE THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. 850MB TEMPS DROP TO +4C TO +6C BY 18Z IN THE NORTH.
GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WITH WINDS ATOP THE
MIXED LAYER INCREASING TO AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MUCH DRIER AIR MASS
FILTERS INTO THE STATE AS WELL WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS DROPPING INTO
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE NORTHWEST. RH VALUES DECREASE TO
NEAR 25 PERCENT ACROSS A SMALL WESTERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA.
THOUGH AN INCREASED FIRE WEATHER DANGER TODAY...HELD OFF ON RED FLAG
WARNING DUE TO CRITERIA NOT BEING MET WIDESPREAD.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT MON APR 21 2014

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...FEW CONCERNS. SYSTEM ON THE WAY OUT BY 00Z
TONIGHT WITH SECONDARY COLD FRONT NOW OVER NORTHERN MN DROPPING
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...BRINGING DRIER AND COOLER AIR
INTO THE REGION BY MORNING. DESPITE WARM TEMPS THE PAST FEW DAYS...
MORNING LOWS TONIGHT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH MID 30S NORTH TO MID
40S SOUTH. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE A NICE DAY WITH GENERALLY SUNNY SKIES
AND A FEW FAIR WX CUMULUS DURING THE MID AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY...KEEPING WINDS LIGHT. LITTLE MIXING
TO PROMOTE MUCH WARMING OTHER THAN SUNSHINE...SO WILL STICK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S NORTHEAST AND MID 60S ACROSS THE WEST. MODELS
DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON TIMING OF UPSTREAM WAVE AND EXPECTED WARM AIR
ADVECTION/CLOUDS AND APPROACHING SHOWERS FOR WED. OVERALL...INCREASE
IN CLOUDS EXPECTED LATE DAY WEST TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS NEARING THE
WESTERN BORDER BY 12Z. THOUGH THUNDER MORE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS AND NE...DRY AIR OVER IOWA WILL COOL AND DIMINISH INSTABILITY
WHEN INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE ARRIVES. MODELS SHOW LITTLE
INSTABILITY UNTIL AFTERNOON WED AND THAT AGAIN IS LESS THAN
YESTERDAYS SOLUTIONS. THUS...HAVE TRIMMED AREAL COVERAGE OF THUNDER
TO ISO WEST IN THE MORNING AND ISO EAST/SCT FAR WEST IN THE PM HOURS
WEDNESDAY WITH THE FIRST REAL SURGE OF THETAE ADVECTION. AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE REGION...CONFIDENCE IN EVOLUTION OF SYSTEM HAS
LESSENED SLIGHTLY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE GENERAL TRENDS SIMILAR...
BUT DETAILS DIFFER. OVERALL THE BETTER INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE AREA UNTIL NEARER 00Z THUR...THEN WEAKEN OVERNIGHT PRIOR TO
INCREASING AGAIN FROM LATE MORNING THUR THROUGH 00Z FRI. STILL SOME
CONCERNS ABOUT OVERNIGHT CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTH/CENTRAL SECTIONS
WED NIGHT AS SOME BULK SHEAR COULD AID SVR POTENTIAL. BOTH THE
00Z GFS AND THE 12Z/NEW 00Z EURO NOW SUGGEST THAT THE LOW WILL
TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS IA NEARLY EXITING OUR FORECAST AREA BY
18Z THUR...KEEPING THE BEST INSTABILITY AND SVR POTENTIAL EAST OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL BUT OVERALL CHANCES WOULD REMAIN CONDITIONAL ON ANY
BETTER ALIGNMENT OF FORCING AND STRONGER INSTABILITY THURSDAY.
BEYOND THUR AFTERNOON...MORE UNCERTAINTY IS ARISING IN THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. MODELS HANDLING THE DEPARTURE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH DIFFERING SPEED THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY DUE TO A
SECONDARY H500 SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CANADA POTENTIALLY PHASING WITH
THE DEPARTING H500 LOW. BOTH THE GEM/EURO TAKE THE FIRST SYSTEM
EAST QUICKLY ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH PHASING WHILE THE GFS HOLDS ON
TO A TROUGH EXTENDING WEST INTO MN. THIS RESULTS IN A FARTHER WEST
RIDGE AXIS OVER CANADA THAT DROPS SOUTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND DRIVES THE JET STREAM FARTHER SOUTH...DIRECTLY NEXT WEEKENDS
STORM SOUTH OF IOWA. THE GEM/EURO SHOW ONLY A SLIGHT DELAY IN
TIMING AND STILL BRING RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.
FOR NOW THE GFS SHOWS TOO DRASTIC A CHANGE FOR SUCH A SMALL H500
FEATURE. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...WILL CUT BACK ON POP CHANCE AT ONSET
OF PRECIP EVENT NEXT SATURDAY BUT WILL STILL KEEP POP INCREASING
WITH TIME THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL HAVE EVEN GREATER UNCERTAINTY
NOW...AS TIED TO CHANGES IN EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF WEEKEND UPPER
AIR PATTERN AND STORM TRACK. NEWEST 21/00Z EURO STILL KEEPS TREND
OF WET WEATHER NEXT WEEKEND...WHILE THE GFS REMAINS DRY. OVERALL
THE EURO TENDS TO PERFORM MORE CONSISTENTLY AFTER FCST 120 HOURS
SO WILL LEAN TOWARD GEM/EURO SOLUTIONS OF WETTER WEATHER SAT/SUN.
AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AFDS...THERE IS A CONSISTENT
SIGNAL OF ENERGY STRETCHING FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC EAST TO
THE PLAINS...WHICH WOULD FAVOR INCLEMENT WEATHER HERE.

&&

.AVIATION...21/06Z
ISSUED AT 1129 PM CDT SUN APR 20 2014

SHRA AND TSRA HAVE FORMED NEAR BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN SITES KMCW/KALO/KFOD BEFORE
SLOWLY PUSHING SOUTH OVERNIGHT...REACHING KDSM NEAR 12Z AND KOTM
AFTER. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY
VFR...THOUGH MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO MVFR OR LOWER WITH TSRA. WINDS
WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF BOUNDARY...MORE VARIABLE NEAR
BOUNDARY AND FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND BOUNDARY. WINDS WILL ALSO
BECOME GUSTY DURING THE DAY MONDAY BEFORE DIMINISHING NEAR SUNSET.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PODRAZIK
LONG TERM...REV
AVIATION...AWB





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