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000
FXUS63 KDMX 250845
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE DEPARTURE OF FOG...WHICH IS ALREADY
OCCURRING VERY SLOWLY OVER THE REGION. SFC TROUGH HEADING
SOUTHEAST WILL TAKE RIBBON OF HIGHER MOISTURE EAST OF THE AREA BY
13Z. THIS SHOULD HELP TO SLOWLY LESSEN THE FOG THREAT BY THIS
MORNING. WILL NEED TO EXTEND THE FOG ADVISORY A FEW MORE HOURS TO
12Z AND TRIM AS NEEDED...A WEAK COOL FRONT OVER NORTHERN MN AND
NORTH SOUTH DAKOTA AT 04Z WILL DROP SOUTH AND THEN PROGRESS NEARLY
DUE EAST...TAKING BAND OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG IA/MN BORDER WITH
CLOUDS DISSIPATING TOWARD MIDDAY. OTHERWISE LOOKING FOR A PLEASANT
AND DRY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
WITH H850 TEMPS STILL HOLDING IN THE 10 TO 14C RANGE AND FAVORABLE
WNW MIXING TO 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON... SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S OVER THE AREA WITH FEW IF ANY CLOUDS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 345 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND
NEXT WEEK. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD FROM SW
MINNESOTA TO NORTHERN ILLINOIS TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING....PASSING OVER NORTHEAST IOWA DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
EXPECT TEMPERATURES UNDER THE HIGH TO DROP OFF THE CLIFF OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN CWA WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS DENOTING A LARGE WEDGE OF
DRY AIR BELOW 800 MB IN CONJUNCTION WITH THIS HIGH. LOWERED MIN
TEMPS 4-5 DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION
BUT EVEN THIS MIGHT BE TOO WARM WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 30S.

CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST ON SUNDAY AS A LARGE SLAB OF THETA-E
ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES THROUGH THE CWA...HOWEVER SHOWERS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED WITH THE VERTICAL COLUMN STILL MOSTLY DRY.
850 MB TEMPS BEHIND THIS WAA RISE TO +19C OVER SOUTHWEST IOWA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH SURFACE TEMPS PUSHING 80 DEGREES IN THE
SOUTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE ATTENDANT WITH A WEST COAST
CYCLONE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE ROCKIES LATE ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL
DRAG A SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE STATE ON MONDAY. MOISTURE
REMAINS FAIRLY LIMITED WITH THIS SYSTEM AND ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED...WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION IN
THE SOUTHEAST WHERE MUCAPES RANGE FROM 400-700 J/KG. FOG IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM ON MONDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE GRIDS. HIGHS ON MONDAY MAY
BE AN ISSUE...WITH THE NAM IN PARTICULAR HOLDING THE FOG AND/OR
LOW STRATUS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON IN
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA...WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVEN A STRONG
INVERSION ABOVE 900 MB AND LIGHT WINDS AROUND THE BROAD SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WOULD INHIBIT MIXING. THIS COULD RESULT IN COOLER
HIGHS THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST.

THIS SYSTEM PUSHES OUT EARLY TUESDAY WITH A LARGE SYNOPTIC RIDGE
BUILDING IN THE WEST. A SECOND LOW...SIMILAR IN CHARACTER TO AN
ALBERTA-CLIPPER...RACES THROUGH ON THURSDAY. MOISTURE ALSO
REMAINS LIMITED WITH THIS LOW AND FOLLOWED THE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE
IN WITHHOLDING PRECIP FROM THE FORECAST. A STRONG CANADIAN HIGH
QUICKLY BUILDS BEHIND THIS LOW AND DRAGS COLDER AIR DOWN WITH IT
WITH 850 MB TEMPS MIDDAY FRIDAY AROUND -1C.

&&

.AVIATION...25/06Z
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM KMCW-KDSM-KLWD
BUT WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS A WEAK TROF AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE STATE. ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-
MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WAPELLO-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...SKOW
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 250449
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1149 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

COMPLICATED FORECAST TONIGHT. LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
WILL BE UNDER WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION SO WHILE IMPROVEMENT WILL
CONTINUE...THERE WILL STILL BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST
MVFR FOG INTO EARLY EVENING. ACROSS THE WEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY
BECOME WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD AFTER SUNSET WHERE VISIBILITIES FALL BACK AS SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. DEWPOINTS POST FRONTAL WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
40S SO THERE IS SOME VERY DRY AIR ON THE WAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC BASED ON THE FRONTAL POSITION BUT NORTH AND
WEST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WEST AND CENTRAL TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE BREAKING UP.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A GORGEOUS AUTUMN WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT SURGING UP FROM THE
SOUTH WITH MODERATE BREEZES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE 500 MB
TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN LUMBER SLOWLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE MIDWEST
AND IOWA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS A RESULT A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
THEN STRETCH NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA BY MONDAY...BEFORE SWINGING
THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT AROUND MONDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS A RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE IN THAT
REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN HELD OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THERE
IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
RAPIDLY BY AND IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK. CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
RAINFALL OF CONSEQUENCE IS ON TAP FOR OUR AREA.

THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY TODAY THAT
ANOTHER 500 MB WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME
AND GIVEN A RELATIVE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ANY RAIN THAT
DOES OCCUR DURING THAT TIME FRAME WOULD BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT.
LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE FAR EXTENDED...LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE
THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND INTO THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS RIDGE
IS ABLE TO BUILD UP TOWARD OUR AREA WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT APPEARS
FAIRLY DRY AND QUIET DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...25/06Z
ISSUED AT 1147 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF DENSE FOG WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT FROM KMCW-KDSM-KLWD
BUT WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS AS A WEAK TROF AXIS PASSES THROUGH THE STATE. ON SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE REGION
WITH WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS WITH UNRESTRICTED VISIBILITIES AND
CEILINGS ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GENERALLY
BE FROM THE NORTHWEST.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM CDT SATURDAY FOR APPANOOSE-BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-
LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-
WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 242336
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
636 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

COMPLICATED FORECAST TONIGHT. LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
WILL BE UNDER WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION SO WHILE IMPROVEMENT WILL
CONTINUE...THERE WILL STILL BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST
MVFR FOG INTO EARLY EVENING. ACROSS THE WEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY
BECOME WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD AFTER SUNSET WHERE VISIBILITIES FALL BACK AS SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. DEWPOINTS POST FRONTAL WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
40S SO THERE IS SOME VERY DRY AIR ON THE WAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC BASED ON THE FRONTAL POSITION BUT NORTH AND
WEST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WEST AND CENTRAL TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE BREAKING UP.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A GORGEOUS AUTUMN WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT SURGING UP FROM THE
SOUTH WITH MODERATE BREEZES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE 500 MB
TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN LUMBER SLOWLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE MIDWEST
AND IOWA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS A RESULT A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
THEN STRETCH NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA BY MONDAY...BEFORE SWINGING
THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT AROUND MONDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS A RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE IN THAT
REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN HELD OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THERE
IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
RAPIDLY BY AND IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK. CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
RAINFALL OF CONSEQUENCE IS ON TAP FOR OUR AREA.

THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY TODAY THAT
ANOTHER 500 MB WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME
AND GIVEN A RELATIVE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ANY RAIN THAT
DOES OCCUR DURING THAT TIME FRAME WOULD BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT.
LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE FAR EXTENDED...LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE
THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND INTO THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS RIDGE
IS ABLE TO BUILD UP TOWARD OUR AREA WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT APPEARS
FAIRLY DRY AND QUIET DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...25/00Z
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

TROF AXIS SLOWLY PUSHING ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING WITH DRIER
WESTERLY FLOW ON BACKSIDE. HOWEVER...PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THIS
FEATURE...KOTM AND KALO LIKELY WILL SEE MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING IN MOIST AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE TROF WITH AREAS OF FOG
REDEVELOPING AND LOW CEILINGS REMAINING. AFTER PASSAGE OF THE
TROF...ANTICIPATE BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE
QUICKLY AS DRY AIR ENTERS THE BOUNDARY LAYER. WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY WITH UNRESTRICTED CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...COGIL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 241959
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

COMPLICATED FORECAST TONIGHT. LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
WILL BE UNDER WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION SO WHILE IMPROVEMENT WILL
CONTINUE...THERE WILL STILL BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST
MVFR FOG INTO EARLY EVENING. ACROSS THE WEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY
BECOME WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD AFTER SUNSET WHERE VISIBILITIES FALL BACK AS SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. DEWPOINTS POST FRONTAL WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
40S SO THERE IS SOME VERY DRY AIR ON THE WAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC BASED ON THE FRONTAL POSITION BUT NORTH AND
WEST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WEST AND CENTRAL TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE BREAKING UP.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A GORGEOUS AUTUMN WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT SURGING UP FROM THE
SOUTH WITH MODERATE BREEZES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE 500 MB
TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN LUMBER SLOWLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE MIDWEST
AND IOWA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS A RESULT A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
THEN STRETCH NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA BY MONDAY...BEFORE SWINGING
THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT AROUND MONDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS A RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE IN THAT
REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN HELD OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THERE
IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
RAPIDLY BY AND IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK. CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
RAINFALL OF CONSEQUENCE IS ON TAP FOR OUR AREA.

THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY TODAY THAT
ANOTHER 500 MB WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME
AND GIVEN A RELATIVE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ANY RAIN THAT
DOES OCCUR DURING THAT TIME FRAME WOULD BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT.
LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE FAR EXTENDED...LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE
THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND INTO THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS RIDGE
IS ABLE TO BUILD UP TOWARD OUR AREA WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT APPEARS
FAIRLY DRY AND QUIET DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WARM ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA. THIS IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 169. VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING AND ARE FOR THE
MOST PART MVFR. AFT 00Z A COLD WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NW AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE FOG AND CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 241959
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

COMPLICATED FORECAST TONIGHT. LOCATIONS EAST OF INTERSTATE 35
WILL BE UNDER WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION SO WHILE IMPROVEMENT WILL
CONTINUE...THERE WILL STILL BE A PERIOD OF LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST
MVFR FOG INTO EARLY EVENING. ACROSS THE WEST WINDS HAVE ALREADY
BECOME WESTERLY AND DRIER AIR HAS ADVECTED INTO THE REGION AND
DEWPOINTS HAVE FALLEN INTO THE MID 50S. THERE MAY BE A BRIEF
PERIOD AFTER SUNSET WHERE VISIBILITIES FALL BACK AS SOME PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPS BUT DENSE FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL DAKOTAS IS PUSHING
INTO THE AREA AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO ANY THREAT OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG. DEWPOINTS POST FRONTAL WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S AND
40S SO THERE IS SOME VERY DRY AIR ON THE WAY. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT
WILL BE PROBLEMATIC BASED ON THE FRONTAL POSITION BUT NORTH AND
WEST LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 40S WITH LOWS
IN THE LOW TO MID 50S SOUTH AND EAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS WEST AND CENTRAL TONIGHT. LOW
CLOUDS SHOULD BE RELEGATED TO THE EAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
BEFORE BREAKING UP.

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

A GORGEOUS AUTUMN WEEKEND IS IN STORE ACROSS THE REGION AS A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA ON SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WARM FRONT SURGING UP FROM THE
SOUTH WITH MODERATE BREEZES ON SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A LONGWAVE 500 MB
TROUGH WILL COME ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC U.S. COAST ON SATURDAY
NIGHT THEN LUMBER SLOWLY ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND OVER THE MIDWEST
AND IOWA ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS A RESULT A SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE AREA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY
THEN STRETCH NORTHEAST ACROSS IOWA BY MONDAY...BEFORE SWINGING
THROUGH AS A COLD FRONT AROUND MONDAY NIGHT IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE 500 MB TROUGH AXIS. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME
QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE ABLE TO
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...HOWEVER
THERE IS A RELATIVE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND DEEP MOISTURE IN THAT
REGION AND POPS HAVE BEEN HELD OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW. THERE
IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR SOME POST FRONTAL SHOWERS AND ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY NIGHT...BUT THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE MOVING
RAPIDLY BY AND IT IS NOT A SLAM DUNK. CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN
MAINTAINED FOR NOW...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT DOES NOT APPEAR THAT ANY
RAINFALL OF CONSEQUENCE IS ON TAP FOR OUR AREA.

THE EARLY WEEK STORM SYSTEM WILL DEPART RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY
MORNING...BRINGING COOL AND DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE REGION IN THE
SUBSEQUENT DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY TODAY THAT
ANOTHER 500 MB WAVE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD AROUND WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...WHICH COULD PROVIDE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT
RAIN...BUT NOTHING MORE THAN LOW POPS ARE WARRANTED AT THIS TIME
AND GIVEN A RELATIVE LACK OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE ANY RAIN THAT
DOES OCCUR DURING THAT TIME FRAME WOULD BE SPOTTY AND LIGHT.
LOOKING TOWARD THE END OF THE FAR EXTENDED...LATE NEXT WEEK AND
INTO THE FIRST WEEKEND OF NOVEMBER...IT APPEARS THAT A LARGE
THERMAL RIDGE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND INTO THE
ROCKIES AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE EXTENT TO WHICH THIS RIDGE
IS ABLE TO BUILD UP TOWARD OUR AREA WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT
ON TEMPERATURES ONE WAY OR ANOTHER...BUT IN ANY EVENT IT APPEARS
FAIRLY DRY AND QUIET DURING THAT TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WARM ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA. THIS IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS
EAST OF HIGHWAY 169. VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING AND ARE FOR THE
MOST PART MVFR. AFT 00Z A COLD WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST. WINDS
WILL SWITCH TO THE NW AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT INTO
THE AREA. THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE FOG AND CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT
FOR SOME HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FAB
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 241810
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
107 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF FOG THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING...THOUGH SOUTH WINDS
AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE CONTINUING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS ALSO AIDING IN FOG FORMATION OVER NORTHERN MO AND
SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS IS KEEPING THE EAST HALF AND SOUTH SECTIONS
GENERALLY 1/4 MILE OR LOWER. HAVE ALREADY EXPANDED THE FG.Y OVER
SW OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREA IN THROUGH 15Z. UPSTREAM WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WEAK WAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE
TO FOCUS MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME SATURATION AT 295K BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH WI. HAVE
ADDED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AFT 18Z IN
RESPONSE TO LIFT AND FORCING. HIGHS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC TODAY. AS
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES...TEMPS WILL RESPOND OVER THE
WEST AND GRADUALLY MIXING WILL ENHANCE WARMING MOST RAPIDLY OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA SPREADING EAST BY LATE DAY. STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM I80 WEST TO CARROLL.
FROM MASON CITY SOUTHEAST TO NEAR OTTUMWA HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS/FOG
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE WARMING TODAY DUE TO
LATE DAY SFC WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES. THUS...HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED AND WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY HIGHER
RESPONSE THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SHOULD BE SOME
CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA TOWARD 21-00Z SO DESPITE THE GLOOMY
START... A BRIGHTER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED THOUGH LIMITED SOMEWHAT
IN THE EAST COMPARED TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE ON TEMPERATURES AND THEN COLD FRONT
BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER
IOWA ON SATURDAY AND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV/ECE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BREEZY ON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY AS SOME MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR SOME SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED DEEPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT MENTION OF
THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LOW
WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EAST WITHIN THE CAA REGIME DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE AND THESE SHOWERS
LOOK TO BE SHORT-LIVED TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO RETURN TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...24/18Z
ISSUED AT 107 PM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

WARM ADVECTION AND DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN
IOWA.  THIS IS KEEPING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS EAST
OF HIGHWAY 169.  VISIBILITIES ARE IMPROVING AND ARE FOR THE MOST
PART MVFR.  AFT 00Z A COLD WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST.  WINDS WILL
SWITCH TO THE NW AND MUCH LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA.
THIS WILL PUT AN END TO THE FOG AND CLEAR SKIES...EXCEPT FOR SOME
HIGH CLOUDS.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...FAB





000
FXUS63 KDMX 241147
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
647 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF FOG THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING...THOUGH SOUTH WINDS
AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE CONTINUING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS ALSO AIDING IN FOG FORMATION OVER NORTHERN MO AND
SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS IS KEEPING THE EAST HALF AND SOUTH SECTIONS
GENERALLY 1/4 MILE OR LOWER. HAVE ALREADY EXPANDED THE FG.Y OVER
SW OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREA IN THROUGH 15Z. UPSTREAM WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WEAK WAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE
TO FOCUS MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME SATURATION AT 295K BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH WI. HAVE
ADDED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AFT 18Z IN
RESPONSE TO LIFT AND FORCING. HIGHS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC TODAY. AS
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES...TEMPS WILL RESPOND OVER THE
WEST AND GRADUALLY MIXING WILL ENHANCE WARMING MOST RAPIDLY OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA SPREADING EAST BY LATE DAY. STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM I80 WEST TO CARROLL.
FROM MASON CITY SOUTHEAST TO NEAR OTTUMWA HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS/FOG
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE WARMING TODAY DUE TO
LATE DAY SFC WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES. THUS...HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED AND WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY HIGHER
RESPONSE THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SHOULD BE SOME
CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA TOWARD 21-00Z SO DESPITE THE GLOOMY
START... A BRIGHTER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED THOUGH LIMITED SOMEWHAT
IN THE EAST COMPARED TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE ON TEMPERATURES AND THEN COLD FRONT
BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER
IOWA ON SATURDAY AND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV/ECE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BREEZY ON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY AS SOME MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR SOME SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED DEEPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT MENTION OF
THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LOW
WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EAST WITHIN THE CAA REGIME DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE AND THESE SHOWERS
LOOK TO BE SHORT-LIVED TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO RETURN TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...24/12Z
ISSUED AT 647 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

MAIN CONCERNS REMAIN FOG. SOME IMPROVEMENT OCCURRING WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION INCREASING FROM WEST...BUT MANY AREAS REMAIN VLIFR AT
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...BUT OVERALL TRENDING WILL
KEEP MANY AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I35 IN POOR VSBY UNTIL 15-16Z. KMCW
HAS IMPROVED A BIT FOR NOW...AND EXPECT SLOW IMPROVEMENT
ELSEWHERE. AFT 18Z...WEAK UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MAY BRING A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS NORTHEAST AT KALO/KMCW...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD RETURN
AT THAT TIME. WINDS NOT A MAJOR CONCERN THROUGH PERIOD. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DAVIS-
DECATUR-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WORTH.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 240830
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

AREAS OF FOG THE MAIN CONCERN THIS MORNING...THOUGH SOUTH WINDS
AND SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION ARE CONTINUING...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ADVECTION IS ALSO AIDING IN FOG FORMATION OVER NORTHERN MO AND
SOUTHERN IOWA. THIS IS KEEPING THE EAST HALF AND SOUTH SECTIONS
GENERALLY 1/4 MILE OR LOWER. HAVE ALREADY EXPANDED THE FG.Y OVER
SW OVERNIGHT AND WILL KEEP AREA IN THROUGH 15Z. UPSTREAM WARM AIR
ADVECTION...WEAK WAVE AND DEVELOPING SFC WARM FRONT WILL COMBINE
TO FOCUS MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SOME SATURATION AT 295K BY LATE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON FROM NORTHEAST IOWA THROUGH WI. HAVE
ADDED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST AFT 18Z IN
RESPONSE TO LIFT AND FORCING. HIGHS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC TODAY. AS
STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION ARRIVES...TEMPS WILL RESPOND OVER THE
WEST AND GRADUALLY MIXING WILL ENHANCE WARMING MOST RAPIDLY OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA SPREADING EAST BY LATE DAY. STILL
EXPECTING HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S FROM I80 WEST TO CARROLL.
FROM MASON CITY SOUTHEAST TO NEAR OTTUMWA HOWEVER...LOW CLOUDS/FOG
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WILL HOLD TEMPS BACK
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH MOST OF THE WARMING TODAY DUE TO
LATE DAY SFC WARM AIR ADVECTION PROCESSES. THUS...HIGHS GENERALLY
IN THE MID 60S EXPECTED AND WOULD BE SURPRISED TO SEE ANY HIGHER
RESPONSE THERE FOR THE AFTERNOON. OVERALL...SHOULD BE SOME
CLEARING OVER MOST OF THE AREA TOWARD 21-00Z SO DESPITE THE GLOOMY
START... A BRIGHTER AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED THOUGH LIMITED SOMEWHAT
IN THE EAST COMPARED TO THE WEST.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER PATTERN IN STORE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE ON TEMPERATURES AND THEN COLD FRONT
BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TRANSITIONS ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. SURFACE HIGH CENTERS ITSELF OVER
IOWA ON SATURDAY AND WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS. LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER MAV/ECE MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON
SATURDAY WHICH WAS SLIGHTLY ABOVE PREVIOUSLY FORECAST. BREEZY ON
SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS EAST. LIKELY SEE A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY AS SOME MID-LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT AND MOISTURE BY LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY FOR SOME SHOWER/ISOLATED THUNDER ACTIVITY
ACROSS NORTHERN IOWA. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH ANY WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY MONDAY. TEMPERATURES AGAIN WILL BE
WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUING AHEAD OF THE
ANTICIPATED DEEPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT TO MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO WARRANT MENTION OF
THUNDER MONDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS VERY LOW
WITH THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...COLD FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR THE FORECAST
AREA BY TUESDAY MORNING WITH SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE
IN THE EAST WITHIN THE CAA REGIME DURING THE DAY. ALTHOUGH THERE
IS PLENTY OF DRIER AIR ADVECTING INTO THE STATE AND THESE SHOWERS
LOOK TO BE SHORT-LIVED TUESDAY MORNING. MUCH COLDER THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AND TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO RETURN TO NORMAL OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND STATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING INTO ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR KFOD LATE THIS EVENING. ONCE THE LIFR CONDITIONS SET
IN...DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPROVEMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER AT KALO/KOTM FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO THE WEST DURING THAT TIME.
SOUTH WINDS BECOME WESTERN BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT THIS MORNING FOR ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DAVIS-
DECATUR-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-
MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-UNION-
WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WORTH.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 240456
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1156 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...JUST
SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE FAR WEST. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT IS FOG
POSSIBILITIES. WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND FROM THE
RAIN/CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. FOG WAS QUITE PREVALENT IN AREAS
OUT TO THE WEST IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. EASTERN CWA WHICH HAS HELD ON TO THE CLOUDS THE
LONGEST WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES TO SEE DENSE FOG...AND HAVE ENDED UP
GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TO ALSO MATCH UP WITH OFFICES
TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LINGERING FOG STRATUS ON FRIDAY MORNING...AS DISCUSSED IN MORE
DETAIL IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE IT WILL BE REINFORCED
BY SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE SLOWED CLEARING OF SKIES ON
FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER THEY WILL CLEAR AT ALL IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST UNTIL THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AREAS THAT DO
CLEAR OUT SHOULD WARM NICELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S MAKING FOR A PLEASANT
FALL DAY.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE
WEEKEND WILL START OUT SOMEWHAT COOLER...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY
BRINGING MORE MILD WEATHER INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...AT 500 MB...A
LARGE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY BUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
ALREADY BE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND THIS WILL AFFECT
IOWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN
RESOLVED INCONSISTENTLY BY THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...BUT TODAY THERE IS MORE OF A CONSENSUS WITH THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS RAMPS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE RESULTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER THEN
MOVES OVER IOWA LATE ON MONDAY. SOME MODEL RUNS ARE SPITTING OUT
LIGHT QPF AHEAD/SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE TIMING AND DRY AIR INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT
IS MORE PROBABLE THAT PRECIP WILL BE ORIENTED EITHER IN A SWATH
BEHIND THE TROUGH OR IN A LARGE SHIELD AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW
ROCKETING TO THE NORTHEAST. IN EITHER EVENT MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
SEEM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR RAINFALL AND POPS ARE 40 TO
50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF THESE SOLUTIONS REMAIN STABLE THEN
LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED SOON. IN ANY EVENT THIS SYSTEM WILL BLOW
OUT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY ONE OR
MORE SUCCESSIVE 500 MB WAVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND STATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING INTO ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR KFOD LATE THIS EVENING. ONCE THE LIFR CONDITIONS SET
IN...DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPROVEMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER AT KALO/KOTM FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO THE WEST DURING THAT TIME.
SOUTH WINDS BECOME WESTERN BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR APPANOOSE-BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-FRANKLIN-
GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-
POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WORTH.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 240456
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1156 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...JUST
SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE FAR WEST. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT IS FOG
POSSIBILITIES. WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND FROM THE
RAIN/CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. FOG WAS QUITE PREVALENT IN AREAS
OUT TO THE WEST IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. EASTERN CWA WHICH HAS HELD ON TO THE CLOUDS THE
LONGEST WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES TO SEE DENSE FOG...AND HAVE ENDED UP
GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TO ALSO MATCH UP WITH OFFICES
TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LINGERING FOG STRATUS ON FRIDAY MORNING...AS DISCUSSED IN MORE
DETAIL IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE IT WILL BE REINFORCED
BY SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE SLOWED CLEARING OF SKIES ON
FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER THEY WILL CLEAR AT ALL IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST UNTIL THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AREAS THAT DO
CLEAR OUT SHOULD WARM NICELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S MAKING FOR A PLEASANT
FALL DAY.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE
WEEKEND WILL START OUT SOMEWHAT COOLER...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY
BRINGING MORE MILD WEATHER INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...AT 500 MB...A
LARGE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY BUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
ALREADY BE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND THIS WILL AFFECT
IOWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN
RESOLVED INCONSISTENTLY BY THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...BUT TODAY THERE IS MORE OF A CONSENSUS WITH THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS RAMPS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE RESULTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER THEN
MOVES OVER IOWA LATE ON MONDAY. SOME MODEL RUNS ARE SPITTING OUT
LIGHT QPF AHEAD/SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE TIMING AND DRY AIR INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT
IS MORE PROBABLE THAT PRECIP WILL BE ORIENTED EITHER IN A SWATH
BEHIND THE TROUGH OR IN A LARGE SHIELD AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW
ROCKETING TO THE NORTHEAST. IN EITHER EVENT MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
SEEM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR RAINFALL AND POPS ARE 40 TO
50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF THESE SOLUTIONS REMAIN STABLE THEN
LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED SOON. IN ANY EVENT THIS SYSTEM WILL BLOW
OUT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY ONE OR
MORE SUCCESSIVE 500 MB WAVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z
ISSUED AT 1154 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

WIDESPREAD FOG AND STATUS HAS BEEN EXPANDING INTO ALL LOCATIONS
EXCEPT FOR KFOD LATE THIS EVENING. ONCE THE LIFR CONDITIONS SET
IN...DO NOT EXPECT ANY IMPROVEMENT THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS LIKELY TO LINGER AT KALO/KOTM FOR MUCH OF
FRIDAY MORNING WITH IMPROVEMENT TO THE WEST DURING THAT TIME.
SOUTH WINDS BECOME WESTERN BY LATE FRIDAY.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR APPANOOSE-BLACK
HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-DAVIS-DECATUR-FRANKLIN-
GRUNDY-HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POLK-
POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WORTH.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 232254
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
554 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...JUST
SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE FAR WEST. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT IS FOG
POSSIBILITIES. WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND FROM THE
RAIN/CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. FOG WAS QUITE PREVALENT IN AREAS
OUT TO THE WEST IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. EASTERN CWA WHICH HAS HELD ON TO THE CLOUDS THE
LONGEST WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES TO SEE DENSE FOG...AND HAVE ENDED UP
GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TO ALSO MATCH UP WITH OFFICES
TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LINGERING FOG STRATUS ON FRIDAY MORNING...AS DISCUSSED IN MORE
DETAIL IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE IT WILL BE REINFORCED
BY SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE SLOWED CLEARING OF SKIES ON
FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER THEY WILL CLEAR AT ALL IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST UNTIL THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AREAS THAT DO
CLEAR OUT SHOULD WARM NICELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S MAKING FOR A PLEASANT
FALL DAY.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE
WEEKEND WILL START OUT SOMEWHAT COOLER...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY
BRINGING MORE MILD WEATHER INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...AT 500 MB...A
LARGE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY BUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
ALREADY BE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND THIS WILL AFFECT
IOWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN
RESOLVED INCONSISTENTLY BY THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...BUT TODAY THERE IS MORE OF A CONSENSUS WITH THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS RAMPS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE RESULTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER THEN
MOVES OVER IOWA LATE ON MONDAY. SOME MODEL RUNS ARE SPITTING OUT
LIGHT QPF AHEAD/SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE TIMING AND DRY AIR INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT
IS MORE PROBABLE THAT PRECIP WILL BE ORIENTED EITHER IN A SWATH
BEHIND THE TROUGH OR IN A LARGE SHIELD AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW
ROCKETING TO THE NORTHEAST. IN EITHER EVENT MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
SEEM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR RAINFALL AND POPS ARE 40 TO
50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF THESE SOLUTIONS REMAIN STABLE THEN
LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED SOON. IN ANY EVENT THIS SYSTEM WILL BLOW
OUT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY ONE OR
MORE SUCCESSIVE 500 MB WAVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...23/00Z
ISSUED AT 552 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST THIS EVENING. AREAS OF FOG
SHOULD DEVELOP ON THE WEST EDGE OF THE STRATUS AND WITH VSBYS LESS
THAN 1 MILE POSSIBLE AT KMCW/KALO/KOTM OVERNIGHT. A MVFR STATUS
DECK IS POSSIBLE ON FRIDAY AND WILL MAINLY IMPACT THE EASTERN
AREAS. MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR APPANOOSE-
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DAVIS-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-
HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POWESHIEK-
TAMA-WAPELLO-WAYNE-WORTH.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...DONAVON





000
FXUS63 KDMX 232035
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
335 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

CLOUDS ARE MOVING OUT OF THE CWA WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED INTO THE
EVENING. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GO LIGHT AND SHIFT BACK AROUND TO THE
SOUTH AHEAD OF A WEAK WAVE EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE...JUST
SOME CLOUD COVER INTO THE FAR WEST. BIGGER ISSUE TONIGHT IS FOG
POSSIBILITIES. WITH THE LINGERING MOISTURE AROUND FROM THE
RAIN/CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY WINDS ALSO EXPECTED TO BRING IN SOME
ADDITIONAL NEAR SURFACE MOISTURE. FOG WAS QUITE PREVALENT IN AREAS
OUT TO THE WEST IN PREVIOUS NIGHTS WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
ACROSS IOWA TONIGHT...THEREFORE HAVE ADDED IN AREAS OF FOG ACROSS
THE ENTIRE CWA. EASTERN CWA WHICH HAS HELD ON TO THE CLOUDS THE
LONGEST WILL HAVE BEST CHANCES TO SEE DENSE FOG...AND HAVE ENDED UP
GOING WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA TO ALSO MATCH UP WITH OFFICES
TO THE EAST.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

LINGERING FOG STRATUS ON FRIDAY MORNING...AS DISCUSSED IN MORE
DETAIL IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION...WILL BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE
DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE IT WILL BE REINFORCED
BY SLUG OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION AHEAD OF A WEAK TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. HAVE SLOWED CLEARING OF SKIES ON
FRIDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS...BUT THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER THEY WILL CLEAR AT ALL IN THE EAST/NORTHEAST UNTIL THE
TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE AREAS THAT DO
CLEAR OUT SHOULD WARM NICELY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH AND WEST...WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S MAKING FOR A PLEASANT
FALL DAY.

ONCE THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH ON FRIDAY NIGHT THE
WEEKEND WILL START OUT SOMEWHAT COOLER...BUT THIS WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE TROUGH LIFTS BACK NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON SUNDAY
BRINGING MORE MILD WEATHER INTO MONDAY. MEANWHILE...AT 500 MB...A
LARGE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD SUNDAY BUT A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL
ALREADY BE PROGRESSING ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND THIS WILL AFFECT
IOWA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE DETAILS OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN
RESOLVED INCONSISTENTLY BY THE PROGNOSTIC MODELS OVER THE LAST FEW
DAYS...BUT TODAY THERE IS MORE OF A CONSENSUS WITH THE OVERALL
EVOLUTION AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS RAMPS UP ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS
ON SUNDAY NIGHT...AND THE RESULTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER THEN
MOVES OVER IOWA LATE ON MONDAY. SOME MODEL RUNS ARE SPITTING OUT
LIGHT QPF AHEAD/SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH BUT THIS SEEMS UNLIKELY
GIVEN THE TIMING AND DRY AIR INDICATED BY FORECAST SOUNDINGS. IT
IS MORE PROBABLE THAT PRECIP WILL BE ORIENTED EITHER IN A SWATH
BEHIND THE TROUGH OR IN A LARGE SHIELD AROUND THE DEEPENING LOW
ROCKETING TO THE NORTHEAST. IN EITHER EVENT MONDAY NIGHT WOULD
SEEM TO BE THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR RAINFALL AND POPS ARE 40 TO
50 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IF THESE SOLUTIONS REMAIN STABLE THEN
LIKELY POPS MAY BE NEEDED SOON. IN ANY EVENT THIS SYSTEM WILL BLOW
OUT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY AND BE FOLLOWED BY ONE OR
MORE SUCCESSIVE 500 MB WAVES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK...PREVENTING ANY SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND POSSIBLY PROVIDING
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL CHANCES.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IFR/MVFR CIGS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND CLEAR OUT OF THE
AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM CDT FRIDAY FOR APPANOOSE-
BLACK HAWK-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DAVIS-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-
HARDIN-JASPER-LUCAS-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-POWESHIEK-
TAMA-WAPELLO-WAYNE-WORTH.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BEERENDS
LONG TERM...LEE
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 231700
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRONOUNCED RIBBON OF THETAE ADVECTION WITH A RETREATING WARM
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGE ALOFT IS WEAKENING THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FIRST LINE AND
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA AT 07Z. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDER WILL GRAD DIMINISH AND SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM WEST WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
GENERALLY EAST OF I35 AFTER 12Z AND EXITING THE AREA ABOUT 18Z
TODAY. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NMM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EAST AFT 12Z AND EXITING EAST BY MIDDAY
AND CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. AS CLOUDS DEPART... MILD
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WARM QUICKLY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOWER 70S WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME CU EARLY ON IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY SUNNY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE OF THE EXTENDED WAS WITH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF/GFS/SREF FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...NICE WARM DAY ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH
GOOD WAA AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY BRING A WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE DAY. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE
+14C TO +18C RANGE BY 18Z FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SOME WEAK CAA...BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR SOME STRONG RETURN FLOW INTO THE STATE. THE CAVEAT IS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SHOULD HELP BALANCE OUT THE WAA...AND ONLY
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOW SOME BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY AND MAY SPAWN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE
WARM SECTOR MONDAY AND REMAINS CAPPED OFF. THUS...WENT COMPLETELY
DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE
LOW. REGARDLESS...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND
EVEN INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IFR/MVFR CIGS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND CLEAR OUT OF THE
AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 231700
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRONOUNCED RIBBON OF THETAE ADVECTION WITH A RETREATING WARM
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGE ALOFT IS WEAKENING THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FIRST LINE AND
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA AT 07Z. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDER WILL GRAD DIMINISH AND SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM WEST WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
GENERALLY EAST OF I35 AFTER 12Z AND EXITING THE AREA ABOUT 18Z
TODAY. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NMM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EAST AFT 12Z AND EXITING EAST BY MIDDAY
AND CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. AS CLOUDS DEPART... MILD
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WARM QUICKLY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOWER 70S WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME CU EARLY ON IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY SUNNY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE OF THE EXTENDED WAS WITH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF/GFS/SREF FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...NICE WARM DAY ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH
GOOD WAA AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY BRING A WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE DAY. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE
+14C TO +18C RANGE BY 18Z FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SOME WEAK CAA...BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR SOME STRONG RETURN FLOW INTO THE STATE. THE CAVEAT IS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SHOULD HELP BALANCE OUT THE WAA...AND ONLY
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOW SOME BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY AND MAY SPAWN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE
WARM SECTOR MONDAY AND REMAINS CAPPED OFF. THUS...WENT COMPLETELY
DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE
LOW. REGARDLESS...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND
EVEN INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...23/18Z
ISSUED AT 1200 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

IFR/MVFR CIGS BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND CLEAR OUT OF THE
AREA...WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST BRIEFLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE SHIFTING BACK TO THE
SOUTH TONIGHT.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...BEERENDS





000
FXUS63 KDMX 231140
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
640 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRONOUNCED RIBBON OF THETAE ADVECTION WITH A RETREATING WARM
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGE ALOFT IS WEAKENING THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FIRST LINE AND
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA AT 07Z. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDER WILL GRAD DIMINISH AND SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM WEST WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
GENERALLY EAST OF I35 AFTER 12Z AND EXITING THE AREA ABOUT 18Z
TODAY. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NMM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EAST AFT 12Z AND EXITING EAST BY MIDDAY
AND CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. AS CLOUDS DEPART... MILD
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WARM QUICKLY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOWER 70S WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME CU EARLY ON IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY SUNNY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE OF THE EXTENDED WAS WITH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF/GFS/SREF FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...NICE WARM DAY ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH
GOOD WAA AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY BRING A WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE DAY. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE
+14C TO +18C RANGE BY 18Z FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SOME WEAK CAA...BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR SOME STRONG RETURN FLOW INTO THE STATE. THE CAVEAT IS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SHOULD HELP BALANCE OUT THE WAA...AND ONLY
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOW SOME BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY AND MAY SPAWN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE
WARM SECTOR MONDAY AND REMAINS CAPPED OFF. THUS...WENT COMPLETELY
DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE
LOW. REGARDLESS...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND
EVEN INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...23/12Z
ISSUED AT 635 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER EXITING TO THE EAST PRIOR TO 15Z. IFR CIGS
AND LOW VSBY HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA WEST OF I35 AND WILL
CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH 15-17Z...LONGEST EAST.
DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP ERODE THE FOG/LOW ST THOUGH IT WILL TAKE
A FEW HOURS MORE TIME. REMAINDER OF FCST WILL BE PLEASANT WITH
LIGHT WINDS AND GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AFT 20Z. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...REV





000
FXUS63 KDMX 230800
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

MAIN CONCERN REMAINS THE ARRIVAL OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH A
PRONOUNCED RIBBON OF THETAE ADVECTION WITH A RETREATING WARM
FRONT NOW ENTERING NORTHEAST IOWA. RIDGE ALOFT IS WEAKENING THE
BAND OF SHOWERS AND ISO THUNDER MOVING EAST ACROSS THE AREA WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF SHOWERS IS DEVELOPING WEST OF THE FIRST LINE AND
MOVING NORTHEAST TOWARD CENTRAL/NORTHERN IOWA AT 07Z. FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE OVERNIGHT...THUNDER WILL GRAD DIMINISH AND SOME
PATCHY FOG WILL FORM WEST WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING OVER THE AREA
GENERALLY EAST OF I35 AFTER 12Z AND EXITING THE AREA ABOUT 18Z
TODAY. BOTH THE HRRR AND THE NMM ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
MAIN AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EAST AFT 12Z AND EXITING EAST BY MIDDAY
AND CURRENT TRENDS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO. AS CLOUDS DEPART... MILD
AIR BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD WARM QUICKLY WITH HIGHS REACHING
THE LOWER 70S WEST TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S EAST. BUFR SOUNDINGS
INDICATE SOME CU EARLY ON IN THE AFTERNOON...BUT MAINLY SUNNY BY
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 300 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

THE MAIN ISSUE OF THE EXTENDED WAS WITH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...AND WITH PRECIP CHANCES LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
LEANED TOWARD THE WARMER ECMWF/GFS/SREF FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...THEN CLOSER TO THE ECMWF SUNDAY THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY...NICE WARM DAY ANTICIPATED FOR FRIDAY WITH
GOOD WAA AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK SHORTWAVE SET TO MOVE ACROSS THE
STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS LOOKS TO MAINLY BRING A WESTERLY
WIND SHIFT LATE IN THE DAY. TWEAKED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO
WITH GOOD MIXING AND SOUTHWEST FLOW. 850MB TEMPS RISE INTO THE
+14C TO +18C RANGE BY 18Z FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE DRY AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER WITH SOME WEAK CAA...BUT STILL LOOKS TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR MAX TEMPERATURES.

THE 850MB RIDGE MOVES EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING
ALLOWING FOR SOME STRONG RETURN FLOW INTO THE STATE. THE CAVEAT IS
CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH SOME DECENT THETA-E ADVECTION MOVING
ACROSS THE STATE. THIS SHOULD HELP BALANCE OUT THE WAA...AND ONLY
WENT SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN GUIDANCE IN THE SOUTHWEST FOR HIGHS
SUNDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SHOW SOME BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING SUNDAY AND MAY SPAWN SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS IN THE
WARM SECTOR MONDAY AND REMAINS CAPPED OFF. THUS...WENT COMPLETELY
DRY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
MONDAY. THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH MOVE THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF A BIT STRONGER AND DEEPER WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE THE GFS IS STRONGER WITH THE SURFACE
LOW. REGARDLESS...MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
POTENTIAL FOR NEXT SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. MUCH COLDER TUESDAY AND
EVEN INTO THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH THE REGION REMAINING IN
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH TO DEGRADE CONDITIONS WITH
PASSAGE OF 5-8 HOUR PERIOD OF WEAK CONVECTION. OBS ARE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE AT THE MOMENT UPSTREAM...VFR TO IFR...SO PLAYED A MIDDLE
GROUND WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY
OCCUR AFTER PRECIP ENDS WEST. THIS PERIOD SHOULD THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY VFR AND CLEARING INTO MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A
FEW PERIODS OF THUNDER WITH THE PRECIP...BUT HAVE OMITTED WORDING
FOR NOW AND WILL PLAY THE SHORT TERM TRENDS FOR UPDATES RATHER
THAN BLANKET TS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...REV
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 230505
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1205 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODEST LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. AHEAD OF
THIS BAND SOUTH SOUTHEAST BREEZES HAVE ALLOWED FOR ANOTHER MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 60S. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT
IS TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED AS THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST IS PROVING FAIRLY STRONG.
NEVERTHELESS...REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SHOWERS WILL STILL REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE
EVENING AND OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO
HAVE RETAINED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION...BUT GENERALLY JUST A PERIOD
OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING OVER THE FAR EAST AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY HOWEVER MUCH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE DAY. EXPECT
MILD TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRIME VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
WHICH LOOKS TO PEAK AROUND 530 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
THETA-E ADVECTION PLUME ARRIVES ALREADY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
HAVE INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY AND HAVE SLIGHTLY MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES DOWN HOWEVER DISCONTINUITY IN THE VERTICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE PRECLUDES ADDITION PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
CERTAINLY WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE MOISTURE PROFILE BETWEEN
850-500 MB FRIDAY MORNING AS BETTER SATURATION WOULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

STILL EXPECTING AN OUTSTANDING DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ENTERS FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS MAY SLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PROGRESSION TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A COOLER SOUTHEAST FLOW
FOR SUNDAY THAT WOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE LOW
TO MID 70S IF THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE
MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR 0C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH TO DEGRADE CONDITIONS WITH
PASSAGE OF 5-8 HOUR PERIOD OF WEAK CONVECTION. OBS ARE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE AT THE MOMENT UPSTREAM...VFR TO IFR...SO PLAYED A MIDDLE
GROUND WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY
OCCUR AFTER PRECIP ENDS WEST. THIS PERIOD SHOULD THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY VFR AND CLEARING INTO MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A
FEW PERIODS OF THUNDER WITH THE PRECIP...BUT HAVE OMITTED WORDING
FOR NOW AND WILL PLAY THE SHORT TERM TRENDS FOR UPDATES RATHER
THAN BLANKET TS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 230505
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1205 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODEST LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. AHEAD OF
THIS BAND SOUTH SOUTHEAST BREEZES HAVE ALLOWED FOR ANOTHER MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 60S. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT
IS TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED AS THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST IS PROVING FAIRLY STRONG.
NEVERTHELESS...REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SHOWERS WILL STILL REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE
EVENING AND OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO
HAVE RETAINED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION...BUT GENERALLY JUST A PERIOD
OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING OVER THE FAR EAST AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY HOWEVER MUCH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE DAY. EXPECT
MILD TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRIME VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
WHICH LOOKS TO PEAK AROUND 530 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
THETA-E ADVECTION PLUME ARRIVES ALREADY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
HAVE INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY AND HAVE SLIGHTLY MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES DOWN HOWEVER DISCONTINUITY IN THE VERTICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE PRECLUDES ADDITION PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
CERTAINLY WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE MOISTURE PROFILE BETWEEN
850-500 MB FRIDAY MORNING AS BETTER SATURATION WOULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

STILL EXPECTING AN OUTSTANDING DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ENTERS FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS MAY SLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PROGRESSION TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A COOLER SOUTHEAST FLOW
FOR SUNDAY THAT WOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE LOW
TO MID 70S IF THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE
MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR 0C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...23/06Z
ISSUED AT 1205 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH TO DEGRADE CONDITIONS WITH
PASSAGE OF 5-8 HOUR PERIOD OF WEAK CONVECTION. OBS ARE SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE AT THE MOMENT UPSTREAM...VFR TO IFR...SO PLAYED A MIDDLE
GROUND WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS MAY
OCCUR AFTER PRECIP ENDS WEST. THIS PERIOD SHOULD THEN BE FOLLOWED
BY VFR AND CLEARING INTO MIDDAY AND THE AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A
FEW PERIODS OF THUNDER WITH THE PRECIP...BUT HAVE OMITTED WORDING
FOR NOW AND WILL PLAY THE SHORT TERM TRENDS FOR UPDATES RATHER
THAN BLANKET TS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 222353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
653 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODEST LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. AHEAD OF
THIS BAND SOUTH SOUTHEAST BREEZES HAVE ALLOWED FOR ANOTHER MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 60S. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT
IS TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED AS THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST IS PROVING FAIRLY STRONG.
NEVERTHELESS...REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SHOWERS WILL STILL REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE
EVENING AND OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO
HAVE RETAINED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION...BUT GENERALLY JUST A PERIOD
OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING OVER THE FAR EAST AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY HOWEVER MUCH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE DAY. EXPECT
MILD TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRIME VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
WHICH LOOKS TO PEAK AROUND 530 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
THETA-E ADVECTION PLUME ARRIVES ALREADY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
HAVE INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY AND HAVE SLIGHTLY MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES DOWN HOWEVER DISCONTINUITY IN THE VERTICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE PRECLUDES ADDITION PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
CERTAINLY WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE MOISTURE PROFILE BETWEEN
850-500 MB FRIDAY MORNING AS BETTER SATURATION WOULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

STILL EXPECTING AN OUTSTANDING DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ENTERS FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS MAY SLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PROGRESSION TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A COOLER SOUTHEAST FLOW
FOR SUNDAY THAT WOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE LOW
TO MID 70S IF THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE
MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR 0C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...23/00Z
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH TO DEGRADE CONDITIONS WITH
PASSAGE OF 5-8 HOUR PERIOD OF WEAK CONVECTION. MODELS ARE VERY
BULLISH BRINGING CIGS DOWN...AND WHILE THAT HAS OCCURRED IN
ISOLATED SPOTS PER RECENT OBS...MAIN DROP TO MVFR HAS BEEN DUE TO
VSBYS. WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND...WITH DROP TO MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS NOT OCCURRING UNTIL AFTER PRECIP ENDS. THIS PERIOD
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY VFR AND CLEARING INTO MIDDAY AND THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS OF THUNDER...BUT HAVE
OMITTED WORDING FOR NOW AND WILL PLAY THE SHORT TERM TRENDS FOR
UPDATES RATHER THAN BLANKET TS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 222353
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
653 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODEST LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. AHEAD OF
THIS BAND SOUTH SOUTHEAST BREEZES HAVE ALLOWED FOR ANOTHER MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 60S. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT
IS TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED AS THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST IS PROVING FAIRLY STRONG.
NEVERTHELESS...REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SHOWERS WILL STILL REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE
EVENING AND OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO
HAVE RETAINED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION...BUT GENERALLY JUST A PERIOD
OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING OVER THE FAR EAST AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY HOWEVER MUCH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE DAY. EXPECT
MILD TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRIME VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
WHICH LOOKS TO PEAK AROUND 530 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
THETA-E ADVECTION PLUME ARRIVES ALREADY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
HAVE INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY AND HAVE SLIGHTLY MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES DOWN HOWEVER DISCONTINUITY IN THE VERTICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE PRECLUDES ADDITION PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
CERTAINLY WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE MOISTURE PROFILE BETWEEN
850-500 MB FRIDAY MORNING AS BETTER SATURATION WOULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

STILL EXPECTING AN OUTSTANDING DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ENTERS FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS MAY SLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PROGRESSION TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A COOLER SOUTHEAST FLOW
FOR SUNDAY THAT WOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE LOW
TO MID 70S IF THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE
MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR 0C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...23/00Z
ISSUED AT 652 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH TO DEGRADE CONDITIONS WITH
PASSAGE OF 5-8 HOUR PERIOD OF WEAK CONVECTION. MODELS ARE VERY
BULLISH BRINGING CIGS DOWN...AND WHILE THAT HAS OCCURRED IN
ISOLATED SPOTS PER RECENT OBS...MAIN DROP TO MVFR HAS BEEN DUE TO
VSBYS. WILL CONTINUE THAT TREND...WITH DROP TO MORE WIDESPREAD
MVFR CIGS NOT OCCURRING UNTIL AFTER PRECIP ENDS. THIS PERIOD
SHOULD BE FOLLOWED BY VFR AND CLEARING INTO MIDDAY AND THE
AFTERNOON. THERE MAY BE A FEW PERIODS OF THUNDER...BUT HAVE
OMITTED WORDING FOR NOW AND WILL PLAY THE SHORT TERM TRENDS FOR
UPDATES RATHER THAN BLANKET TS FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...SMALL





000
FXUS63 KDMX 222056
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
356 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

A BAND OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS IS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST IN CONJUNCTION WITH A MODEST LOW PRESSURE TROUGH. AHEAD OF
THIS BAND SOUTH SOUTHEAST BREEZES HAVE ALLOWED FOR ANOTHER MILD DAY
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH PATCHY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND
TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE 60S. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT
IS TIMING THE PROGRESSION OF THE RAIN INTO AND ACROSS THE
AREA...WHICH APPEARS TO BE A BIT SLOWER THAN EXPECTED AS THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE JUST TO OUR EAST IS PROVING FAIRLY STRONG.
NEVERTHELESS...REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS AND HIGH RES MODELS INDICATE
THAT THE SHOWERS WILL STILL REACH OUR WESTERN COUNTIES BY LATE
EVENING AND OUR EASTERN COUNTIES BY AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY SO
HAVE RETAINED ISOLATED THUNDER MENTION...BUT GENERALLY JUST A PERIOD
OF STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 356 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY BE LINGERING OVER THE FAR EAST AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY HOWEVER MUCH DRIER AIR INFILTRATING FROM THE WEST WILL
QUICKLY MOVE IN AND END PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE DAY. EXPECT
MILD TEMPERATURES AND CLEARING SKIES BY THE AFTERNOON. IN
ADDITION...PRIME VIEWING CONDITIONS FOR THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
WHICH LOOKS TO PEAK AROUND 530 PM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THE NEXT
THETA-E ADVECTION PLUME ARRIVES ALREADY THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.
HAVE INCREASE CLOUD COVER FOR FRIDAY AND HAVE SLIGHTLY MODIFIED
TEMPERATURES DOWN HOWEVER DISCONTINUITY IN THE VERTICAL MOISTURE
PROFILE PRECLUDES ADDITION PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT THIS TIME.
CERTAINLY WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE THE MOISTURE PROFILE BETWEEN
850-500 MB FRIDAY MORNING AS BETTER SATURATION WOULD LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS.

STILL EXPECTING AN OUTSTANDING DAY SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
ENTERS FROM THE WEST. LOW PRESSURE DROPPING SOUTHEAST INTO THE
NORTHEAST CONUS MAY SLOW THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PROGRESSION TO
THE EAST ON SUNDAY. THIS MAY RESULT IN A COOLER SOUTHEAST FLOW
FOR SUNDAY THAT WOULD LIMIT HIGHS TO THE 60S AS OPPOSED TO THE LOW
TO MID 70S IF THE FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. AN INCREASING
LOW LEVEL JET AND STEEPING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE
MUCAPES AROUND 500 J/KG THEREFORE HAVE INCLUDED THUNDERSTORMS
MONDAY NIGHT. MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO NEAR 0C TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE A BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS AND SHRA MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WESTERN IOWA. THIS BAND
WILL PROGRESS STEADILY OVER THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...CLEARING OUT
AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
EXTENT TO WHICH CIGS/VSBYS WILL FALL WITHIN THE BAND OF
CLOUDS/SHRA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DIRE WITH IFR CIGS
INDICATED...HOWEVER UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE OBS ARE
SHOWING THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY PESSIMISTIC TO THIS POINT
SO MVFR MAY BE MORE THE RULE. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN THE 18Z TAFS...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REASSESSED FOR THE 00Z AND 06Z ISSUANCES.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LEE
LONG TERM...DONAVON
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 221734
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1234 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
MOVE INTO IA LATER TONIGHT AND EAST ON THURSDAY. PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY TO TAKE IN TO ACCOUNT SPRINKLES THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAA BAND OF CLOUDS OVER WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE CWA TODAY. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION IS
TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING AND IS EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD FIELD ON
SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN IA. THIS FITS WELL WITH THE
MODELS DEPICTION. OPTED TO IGNORE THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MODELS SHOW WITH THE BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION...FEELING THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR THAT THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY. THOUGH H8 TEMPS ARE ON THE RISE...CLOUDS WILL PLAY A
FACTOR WITH THE WEAK LATE OCT SUN. WILL GO CLOSE TO A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW YESTERDAY. HIGH OCTANE AIR FOR OCTOBER IS TO THE WEST OF
THE STATE WITH PWAT VALUES RIDING TO 1.25 INCHES OR MORE. PRECIP
IS LIKELY TO SLIP INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY
TODAY. WENT WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. DO NOT THINK THE
THUNDER IS VERY LIKELY, BUT WOULDN`T RULE OUT A CRACK OF THUNDER
HERE AND THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS REMAINED ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AND WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM12/SREF AND NMM/ARW FOR TIMING OF PRECIP
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN TOWARDS THE ECMWF FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS THE STATE A BIT SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AT LEAST THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL DEEP
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL IOWA
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST FORCING ENTERS THE WESTERN
EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA B/T 00-03Z THURSDAY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING EAST B/T 03Z TO 09Z THURSDAY. THE PRECIP LOOKS TO
QUICKLY EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BY 18Z AT THE LATEST. CUT BACK ON POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST B/T 15-18Z THURSDAY WITH THE QUICKER MODEL
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKING AT A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...500MB RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BY SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND BRING A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER AND A WESTWARD WIND SHIFT BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ANY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HOWEVER. SUNDAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. 850MB TEMPS WARM
TO +14C TO +16C AND WITH VERY GOOD MIXING TO NEAR 900MB.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICTING A LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DEEPER. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO
BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE A BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS AND SHRA MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WESTERN IOWA. THIS BAND
WILL PROGRESS STEADILY OVER THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...CLEARING OUT
AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
EXTENT TO WHICH CIGS/VSBYS WILL FALL WITHIN THE BAND OF
CLOUDS/SHRA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DIRE WITH IFR CIGS
INDICATED...HOWEVER UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE OBS ARE
SHOWING THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY PESSIMISTIC TO THIS POINT
SO MVFR MAY BE MORE THE RULE. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN THE 18Z TAFS...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REASSESSED FOR THE 00Z AND 06Z ISSUANCES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MS OCT 14
SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...MS OCT 14
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 221734
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1234 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
MOVE INTO IA LATER TONIGHT AND EAST ON THURSDAY. PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY TO TAKE IN TO ACCOUNT SPRINKLES THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAA BAND OF CLOUDS OVER WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE CWA TODAY. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION IS
TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING AND IS EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD FIELD ON
SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN IA. THIS FITS WELL WITH THE
MODELS DEPICTION. OPTED TO IGNORE THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MODELS SHOW WITH THE BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION...FEELING THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR THAT THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY. THOUGH H8 TEMPS ARE ON THE RISE...CLOUDS WILL PLAY A
FACTOR WITH THE WEAK LATE OCT SUN. WILL GO CLOSE TO A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW YESTERDAY. HIGH OCTANE AIR FOR OCTOBER IS TO THE WEST OF
THE STATE WITH PWAT VALUES RIDING TO 1.25 INCHES OR MORE. PRECIP
IS LIKELY TO SLIP INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY
TODAY. WENT WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. DO NOT THINK THE
THUNDER IS VERY LIKELY, BUT WOULDN`T RULE OUT A CRACK OF THUNDER
HERE AND THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS REMAINED ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AND WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM12/SREF AND NMM/ARW FOR TIMING OF PRECIP
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN TOWARDS THE ECMWF FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS THE STATE A BIT SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AT LEAST THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL DEEP
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL IOWA
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST FORCING ENTERS THE WESTERN
EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA B/T 00-03Z THURSDAY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING EAST B/T 03Z TO 09Z THURSDAY. THE PRECIP LOOKS TO
QUICKLY EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BY 18Z AT THE LATEST. CUT BACK ON POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST B/T 15-18Z THURSDAY WITH THE QUICKER MODEL
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKING AT A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...500MB RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BY SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND BRING A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER AND A WESTWARD WIND SHIFT BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ANY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HOWEVER. SUNDAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. 850MB TEMPS WARM
TO +14C TO +16C AND WITH VERY GOOD MIXING TO NEAR 900MB.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICTING A LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DEEPER. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO
BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z
ISSUED AT 1234 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO THIS EVENING BEFORE A BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS AND SHRA MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM WESTERN IOWA. THIS BAND
WILL PROGRESS STEADILY OVER THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT...CLEARING OUT
AFTER SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE
EXTENT TO WHICH CIGS/VSBYS WILL FALL WITHIN THE BAND OF
CLOUDS/SHRA. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE DIRE WITH IFR CIGS
INDICATED...HOWEVER UPSTREAM RADAR RETURNS AND SURFACE OBS ARE
SHOWING THAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERLY PESSIMISTIC TO THIS POINT
SO MVFR MAY BE MORE THE RULE. FOR NOW HAVE ADVERTISED MVFR
CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT IN THE 18Z TAFS...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE
REASSESSED FOR THE 00Z AND 06Z ISSUANCES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MS OCT 14
SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...MS OCT 14
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...LEE





000
FXUS63 KDMX 221135
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
635 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
MOVE INTO IA LATER TONIGHT AND EAST ON THURSDAY. PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

AN UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY TO TAKE IN TO ACCOUNT SPRINKLES THAT
HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE WAA BAND OF CLOUDS OVER WESTERN IA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE CWA TODAY. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION IS
TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING AND IS EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD FIELD ON
SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN IA. THIS FITS WELL WITH THE
MODELS DEPICTION. OPTED TO IGNORE THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MODELS SHOW WITH THE BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION...FEELING THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR THAT THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY. THOUGH H8 TEMPS ARE ON THE RISE...CLOUDS WILL PLAY A
FACTOR WITH THE WEAK LATE OCT SUN. WILL GO CLOSE TO A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW YESTERDAY. HIGH OCTANE AIR FOR OCTOBER IS TO THE WEST OF
THE STATE WITH PWAT VALUES RIDING TO 1.25 INCHES OR MORE. PRECIP
IS LIKELY TO SLIP INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY
TODAY. WENT WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. DO NOT THINK THE
THUNDER IS VERY LIKELY, BUT WOULDN`T RULE OUT A CRACK OF THUNDER
HERE AND THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS REMAINED ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AND WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM12/SREF AND NMM/ARW FOR TIMING OF PRECIP
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN TOWARDS THE ECMWF FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS THE STATE A BIT SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AT LEAST THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL DEEP
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL IOWA
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST FORCING ENTERS THE WESTERN
EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA B/T 00-03Z THURSDAY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING EAST B/T 03Z TO 09Z THURSDAY. THE PRECIP LOOKS TO
QUICKLY EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BY 18Z AT THE LATEST. CUT BACK ON POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST B/T 15-18Z THURSDAY WITH THE QUICKER MODEL
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKING AT A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...500MB RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BY SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND BRING A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER AND A WESTWARD WIND SHIFT BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ANY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HOWEVER. SUNDAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. 850MB TEMPS WARM
TO +14C TO +16C AND WITH VERY GOOD MIXING TO NEAR 900MB.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICTING A LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DEEPER. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO
BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WAA CLOUD BAND IN WESTERN IA WILL ADVANCE EAST WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES AND VFR CEILINGS TODAY. TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ADVANCE
EAST WITH A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVING INTO WESTERN
IA LATE TODAY...AND OVER THE STATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TO SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR IN CIG AND VSBY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS SPREADING EAST DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
AREAS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP
IN LOW AREAS EACH MORNING.


&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...MS OCT 14
SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...MS OCT 14
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...MS OCT 14





000
FXUS63 KDMX 221123
AFDDMX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
623 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH FROM CENTRAL ND INTO THE TX PANHANDLE WILL
MOVE INTO IA LATER TONIGHT AND EAST ON THURSDAY. PACIFIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MUCH
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE HAS MOVE EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER WITH A
SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER THE CWA TODAY. STRONG THETA-E ADVECTION IS
TAKING PLACE THIS MORNING AND IS EVIDENT IN THE CLOUD FIELD ON
SATELLITE THIS MORNING OVER WESTERN IA. THIS FITS WELL WITH THE
MODELS DEPICTION. OPTED TO IGNORE THE VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
MODELS SHOW WITH THE BAND OF THETA-E ADVECTION...FEELING THE LOWER
LEVELS WILL BE TOO DRY FOR THAT THIS MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
TRICKY. THOUGH H8 TEMPS ARE ON THE RISE...CLOUDS WILL PLAY A
FACTOR WITH THE WEAK LATE OCT SUN. WILL GO CLOSE TO A DEGREE OR
TWO BELOW YESTERDAY. HIGH OCTANE AIR FOR OCTOBER IS TO THE WEST OF
THE STATE WITH PWAT VALUES RIDING TO 1.25 INCHES OR MORE. PRECIP
IS LIKELY TO SLIP INTO THE FAR WESTERN COUNTIES LATE IN THE DAY
TODAY. WENT WITH SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER. DO NOT THINK THE
THUNDER IS VERY LIKELY, BUT WOULDN`T RULE OUT A CRACK OF THUNDER
HERE AND THERE.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 343 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

PRIMARY FORECAST FOCUS REMAINED ON RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...AND WITH TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. LEANED
TOWARD A BLEND OF THE NAM12/SREF AND NMM/ARW FOR TIMING OF PRECIP
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...THEN TOWARDS THE ECMWF FRIDAY THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...CLIPPER SYSTEM QUICKLY MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT AND EXITS THE STATE A BIT SOONER THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST...AT LEAST THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL DEEP
MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND GOOD THETA-E ADVECTION INTO CENTRAL IOWA
TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STRONGEST FORCING ENTERS THE WESTERN
EDGES OF THE FORECAST AREA B/T 00-03Z THURSDAY BEFORE
TRANSITIONING EAST B/T 03Z TO 09Z THURSDAY. THE PRECIP LOOKS TO
QUICKLY EXIT THE SOUTHEAST BY 18Z AT THE LATEST. CUT BACK ON POPS
ACROSS THE NORTHEAST B/T 15-18Z THURSDAY WITH THE QUICKER MODEL
SOLUTIONS. STILL LOOKING AT A DECENT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TOPPING 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...500MB RIDGE GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND BY SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE CENTERED OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
RAPIDLY MOVE ACROSS THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND BRING A LITTLE MORE
CLOUD COVER AND A WESTWARD WIND SHIFT BY THE AFTERNOON. NOT
ENOUGH TO GO ANY COOLER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HOWEVER. SUNDAY
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. 850MB TEMPS WARM
TO +14C TO +16C AND WITH VERY GOOD MIXING TO NEAR 900MB.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...GFS AND ECMWF BOTH DEPICTING A LONGWAVE
TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. BY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...WITH THE ECMWF SLIGHTLY DEEPER. PRECIP CHANCES LOOK TO
BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/12Z
ISSUED AT 618 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

WAA CLOUD BAND IN WESTERN IA WILL ADVANCE EAST WITH A FEW
SPRINKLES AND VFR CEILINGS TODAY. TROUGH TO THE WEST WILL ADVANCE
EAST WITH A BAND OF RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH IT MOVING INTO WESTERN
IA LATE TODAY...AND OVER THE STATE TONIGHT. RAIN WILL END FROM
WEST TO EAST ON THURSDAY. EXPECT TO SEE CONDITIONS DETERIORATE TO
MVFR IN CIG AND VSBY TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS SPREADING EAST DURING THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING VFR CONDITIONS TO THE
AREAS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG MAY DEVELOP
IN LOW AREAS EACH MORNING.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MS OCT 14
SHORT TERM...MS OCT 14
LONG TERM...PODRAZIK
AVIATION...MS OCT 14





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